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The system is definitely broken. We're kind of entering a suddenly stage. They have to continue

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to print money and grow the money supply at a fast enough rate to keep the credit structure

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from collapsing. We are in an inflationary world. That means to me is at the margin right now,

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I'm selling gold and buying Bitcoin. And Bitcoin will, on this next run, go to, you know, 150,

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200, 250 sometime within the next year. So we've never really had a financial asset like that

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before. So a higher price does not change the supply. Savers who are saving in the wrong

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currency just get totally wiped out. You know, prices get incredibly high. You know, everyone

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lives kind of hand to mouth. I mean, there's going to be an enormous, enormous wealth transfer here.

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Five or 10 years, you know, you're going to know who owns sound money and who did not. So if we

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think of fiat as being kind of a Titanic and it's sinking, do you want to own a seat or don't you?

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What do you think could get in the way of Bitcoin succeeding?

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Welcome back to Get A Bitcoin.

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I'm your host, Sean.

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Joining us today is my dear friend, Lawrence Lepard,

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author of the amazing number one bestselling book, The Big Print.

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Lawrence is a sound money advocate, investment manager,

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anti-federalist, and just an all-round good guy.

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Larry, welcome back to the show.

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How are you?

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It's great to be back.

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with you. You're one of my favorite podcasters. And as you, we've really built up this friendship

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from afar. I mean, you're on the other side of the world, but it's wonderful what this technology

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allows. I'm not sure it's really a bestseller. You know, the sales have been great. We sold

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40,000 plus books coming up on 45, but I don't think that makes it a bestseller. But it's,

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in the Bitcoin community, it's been well-received. And hopefully it's the, you know, I designed it as

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a tool to help people. And I've heard stories that it is doing that in some cases, and that's

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very satisfying we're talking just before we hit record and this book's had such a special place

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place in my life um i've said the the story on the channel a couple of times but my wife you know

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i've been in bitcoin for six years and i'm a voracious reader and every book of bitcoin that

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i've read i'd like answer i'm like sweetie darling you've got to read this and she'll like

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open a little bit and she's like no i'm not interested or she'll just like blatantly like

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I'm not reading that book.

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Five years later, after getting in and trying to give her every book,

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we're going on a road trip and I blackmailed her

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into listening to the audio book read by Walker.

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And I just said, blatantly, I'm not going if you don't listen to it.

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And she's like, all right.

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Like, eventually, yes.

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And so we started going down there, listening to it on the trip down

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to Bellagio, New South Wales, and we were coming back up.

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And at the last, there's three hours remaining, like a couple of minutes.

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And she just starts crying.

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And I'm like, pull over, car and caravan, stop on the side of the road.

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Sweetie, darling, what's wrong?

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And she's like, I didn't get it.

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I thought you were crazy.

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I thought this was just like magic internet money.

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And it was like some get rich quick or something.

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Like, I thought you were a bit crazy.

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She's like, you saved me.

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You saved our family.

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Like, thank you so much.

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And I'm like, thanks to Larry so much.

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And she's like, where was this book four years ago?

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I'm like, I tried to give you every other book, but she's like, where was this book four years ago?

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I'm like, you've read it now and you get it.

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And then I was talking to her last night and she just said to say, thank you so much.

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Thank you.

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Hearing stories like that just really, that's very, very satisfying because that's why I wrote it.

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You know, I just feel like a lot of people are going to get hurt in this monetary event.

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And I felt like I was in a position to explain it in a way that people would understand.

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And, you know, it's not a lot of original thought in there.

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I leaned on safe and Lynn and a lot of other great, you know, Bitcoin people.

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But maybe what I brought to it, I think, was a way of telling it in a sense that anyone could understand.

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And I it's interesting you mentioned that about your wife.

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I did the same thing with my wife.

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In fact, she inspired one of the chapters, the chapter on skepticism.

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And and I said, you know, you've got to read this because and I want to make sure you understand it because you're my target audience.

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I want somebody who doesn't know anything about Austrian economics or monetary issues or anything to understand.

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It was pretty funny. One of the first things she said, I didn't get very far into it.

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She read a couple of chapters. She says, what's the Federal Reserve?

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I was kind of like, you know, well, yeah, right.

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I mean, you know, there are a lot of average citizens who don't know what the Federal Reserve even is.

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And so I thought, well, I got to describe that. Right.

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So so I tried to write it from a first principles, easy to understand basis.

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but I also try to put enough information in there to really support the case.

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I mean, it's not a lightweight book.

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It's got the data to support it.

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So, yeah, thank you.

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Tell your wife I love her, and I really appreciate the support.

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I've heard other stories like that.

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It's very satisfying as an author to hear that kind of stuff.

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Even if I don't sell a ton of books,

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as long as it makes a difference for some people, that's great.

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The book only came out at the start of the year,

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and you're kind enough to send me the manuscript,

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and I got it New Year's Eve here in Australia.

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I started reading on New Year's Day and I couldn't put it down as I printed it like so tiny.

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So I was like holding these papers like this for two and a half days.

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But by the 3rd of January, I'd finished the book and I was just like, oh, wow, this is amazing.

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And then it came out shortly after.

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And since I've handed out more of this book, The Big Print, than any other Bitcoin book.

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And I'm a reader and I like giving people books.

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So it's just amazing.

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But for everyone, it's literally the best book on Bitcoin's orange pill someone.

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It's in the description by a heap of copies, hand them out.

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And one thing I've been saying to people, I'm like, if you read it front to back cover, I'll shut up about Bitcoin.

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If you're like, Bitcoin's not for me.

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Once you've read it, that's cool.

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At least you know enough to be able to say, no, I'm not interested or whatever.

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And I've had quite a couple of people, not a lot of people be not interested.

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but there was one guy, Jeff Wilson from Wilson Asset Management,

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big asset management firm here in Australia.

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And he read it or listened to it and he's like, I get it.

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I understand and stuff.

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He's like a little bit older.

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It's just not for me.

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I'm like, cool, that's okay.

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I don't need to keep going over and over and rehashing the same thing.

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But if someone's just like not interested in Bitcoin, I'm like, based on what?

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Like, have you read any of the books?

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and they're like, nah, I've watched TV or anything like that.

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So flipping the conversation to Bitcoin

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and why we're talking about Bitcoin

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and why you wrote a book on Bitcoin,

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we see gold at all-time highs, about $4,110 this morning.

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Silver is at all-time highs.

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Yeah, it looks like silver is just going crazy.

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There's this huge big wick up.

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So I'd like you to talk about that.

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And Bitcoin, you know, it's just come down from the all-time highs,

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but it's still at about $115,000 over the weekend

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at time of recording, we saw the biggest liquidation in crypto Bitcoin history.

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It feels like the system's broken, Lawrence, in every area.

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What's going on?

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Yeah, well, the system is definitely broken.

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And I think what we're observing is the move from, you know, they say how you go bankrupt,

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you know, gradually and then suddenly.

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I mean, I think we've had the gradually stage for a number of years now.

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I think we're kind of entering this suddenly stage.

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and you know gold is more widely distributed more widely known bitcoin's still emerging and so

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you know it tends to smell out monetary debasement first and move first you know the the gold move

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this year has really been unprecedented you know up 70 80 percent and uh you know that's just there

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are only a couple years in history where it's ever moved that much and they've indicated serious

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monetary distress um and of course silver same story and and actually silver for some time was

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dormant and now it's caught up and it's moving even more than gold percentage wise. And that's

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the typical pattern in these bull markets for precious metals. Gold starts and then silver

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follows even harder. And, you know, it's really just symptomatic, I think, as we were talking

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about before we started recording, that more and more people are becoming aware of what the book

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describes, which is that the fiscal situation for the U.S. government is very bad. They have to

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continue to print money and grow the money supply at a fast enough rate to keep the credit

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structure from collapsing and that that means implicitly that we are in an inflationary world.

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And, you know, at the end of the day, when push comes to shove for the U.S. federal government,

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you know, they will print in order to prevent a deflationary collapse. And, you know, I named it

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the big print. Interestingly, there have been two big prints before this. The first one was 08

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and the second one was COVID 2020.

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And I think this one, I think the next one is coming.

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We're kind of slightly easing into it.

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Gold would indicate it's pretty close, pretty nearby.

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And my sense is it'll be even bigger than the last two.

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You know, I mean, and the recent indications of that,

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I mean, a data point that just popped up that, you know,

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I don't think anyone would have expected is that, you know,

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Treasury Secretary Scott Pesant just agreed to bail out Argentina,

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you know, with $20 billion, $20 billion that we don't really have.

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But guess what? We can print it and give it to them on a swap line to try and stabilize their economy and hopefully get their currency to be stable. And we're doing that for geopolitical reasons because we'd rather have them be in our fold rather than let China, you know, be in China's fold.

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So, you know, that's just one symptom or one example of how we're creeping toward that big print. Another example is that the Treasury has been selling short-term Treasury bills, short-term paper, but they've been turning around and using that to buy long-term paper, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year bonds. And that's to try and prevent those long rates from going higher, you know, because they know that if the rates go higher, you know, that's going to lead to higher interest expense, bigger deficit, and the debt doom loop that we've described many times.

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you know, in podcasts and on Twitter. So I think it's just a recognition of the fact that there's

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no way out of this that doesn't involve serious inflation. And I think that most of the world

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knows that the best performing asset historically, the best performing asset in inflation has been

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gold. And that's because we haven't really had a very serious bout of inflation since the 1970s.

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But when 2008 occurred, that's when I got radicalized for sound money and realized that

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the wealth I had earned was going to get debased severely because of what Bernanke was doing with

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QE and expanding the Fed balance sheet. And so the first thing I did is, okay, well, if we're

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going to have inflation, how does one protect what's on the side? I went and I looked at historically,

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what are the best things to do in an inflationary environment? Well, the last real big inflationary

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environment, I was a teenager, it was the seventies. And there was a lot of inflation during the seventies,

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double digit for many, many years. And gold went from $35 to $800 and gold stocks did extremely

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well. And the two best performing assets in that decade were gold stocks and oil and gas stocks,

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both commodity related things that could not be printed. And so at that point in time, I realized

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that I basically wanted to pivot and start investing my capital in things that would be

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protected or would protect me from the inflation that I saw as inevitable now. That was 08. So that

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was 15 years ago now. And there've been some ups and downs. It took some time and my general thesis

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was right, but it didn't happen nearly as quickly as I thought it would. And so I was wrong on timing.

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But it now appears that we're pretty deeply into it. And, you know, I mean, people who invest in my

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fund always ask, well, what could go wrong, which is a very intelligent question. And I often think,

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you know, what could go wrong? And, you know, what could go wrong with the theme of the book

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and with the trade that I've made, and I have a lot of gold and a lot of silver and a lot of Bitcoin,

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is if the government got fiscally responsible, incredibly fiscally responsible. And I say that,

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And of course, most people laugh because we all know that given the way things are right now, that's not terribly likely.

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But, you know, unterribly likely things do happen.

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And eventually at some point that could happen.

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And when that happens, you know, these won't be such a good investment.

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When and if that happens, these won't be such a good investment.

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But until I see signs that they're going to means test Social Security, cut Social Security, cut defense spending, et cetera, you know, I'm very confident we live in an inflationary world.

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and therefore I want to own forms of money that can't be printed by the government because I think

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the government's going to print a lot of money. So that's how we got to where we are in my view.

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Do you think it's like even if they decided to be fiscally responsible, is it even mathematically

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possible where we are now with the state of dead in the world? That's a really great question. I

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mean there's an argument that it's not even mathematically possible because if they got

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fiscally responsible, then all the money they're spending would not go into the economy. The

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economy would collapse. The debt couldn't be repaid. It'd get incredibly deflationary. Then

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they'd have to plant money. I mean, you make a very good point, which is that we may be so close

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to the brink that they can't bring it back. And I don't dispute that. I mean, the book talks about

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the solution to this problem. There are several possible endpoints here. One of them is hyper

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inflation. That's not my base case. It's a tail case, but it's out there as a possibility.

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I think a more likely event is that inflation will get worse for a number of years and people will be screaming about it.

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And eventually we will elect sound money politicians who will do a one time deval reset, similar to what Roosevelt did in the 30s.

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And so, you know, at that point in time, hopefully we return to a sound money standard.

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I'd like to see it be a Bitcoin standard, but gold would be better than what we've got right now.

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And maybe it could be some hybrid of gold and Bitcoin as the monetary standard.

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And, you know, the inflation will stop.

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I mean, just like that. And if you study hyperinflations in other countries in the world, they're incredibly painful events.

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But interestingly enough, when they're over, if the country then returns to sound money, things get healed relatively quickly and the economy rebuilds.

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I mean, people people want to work up every wake up every morning, go to work, support their families, live normal lives.

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And, you know, if the money is broken, that's hard. The money is sound. You know, you can do it.

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And so it's just as simple as realizing the problem here is that fiat money is a really broken thing, kind of reaching the end of its natural lifespan. And we need to move away from that. We need to move back to sound money if we want to enjoy the benefits that, you know, we enjoyed when we were on a sound money standard.

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I mean, you know, throughout the early 1900s and all the way up until, you know, 71, things weren't perfect, but they were better than they are now inflation wise.

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Yeah, that's that's kind of the, you know, the where I think we're going.

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220
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221
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222
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223
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224
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225
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226
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227
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228
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229
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231
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232
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236
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237
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:40,606
Could not recommend them enough I used them personally before I ever partnered with them for the channel friends and family They asked me to help them out I like go to the world experts That is the Bitcoin way So reach out to the Bitcoin way today One thing on that like in my own life and I dare

238
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say yours as well, from saving in Bitcoin like every two weeks for the last five and a half years,

239
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I can see that my purchasing power is getting greater and stuff. And I just feel safer saving

240
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and that infinite scarce hard money, which is Bitcoin.

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You know, if there wasn't Bitcoin, I'd probably be saving gold.

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And I say all this because I feel like I'm safe within my life

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and I think you are as well.

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And that's why a lot of Bitcoiners buy what we do,

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just buy a stack and chill and just get as much in self-custody.

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Do we really need the state to reset onto a sound money standard

247
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or could we just all be on a sound money standard

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for things to get better if it was to get really bad?

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Everyone just opts out.

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That's a great question.

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I mean, in theory, we could do it,

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but as long as they're telling us that fiat money is legal tender.

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I mean, what you're describing is if we don't have a reset,

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what eventually will happen is fiat money will trend towards its intrinsic value,

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which is zero.

256
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But that's also hyperinflation.

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And that's, you know, if you look at historically when that occurs, I mean, that's not pretty.

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Societally, that's a very, very difficult thing.

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You know, savers who are saving in the wrong currency just get totally wiped out.

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You know, prices get incredibly high.

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You know, everyone lives kind of hand to mouth.

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I mean, and it's interesting because, you know, Americans and to a degree Brits and Aussies aren't so familiar with this because we've generally speaking have had responsible monetary authorities last couple hundred years.

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The people who get this the best, interestingly enough, are South Americans or Africans or people in the Middle East or, you know, Turkey.

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I mean, countries that have crappy currencies and have had hyperinflations or very, very high inflation.

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These people are much more aware of the risk, you know, that one day you can think you're worth a lot of money, but your money can get enormously devalued very quickly.

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I mean, interestingly enough, even Argentina, which we're bailing out, you know, they just, I mean, the Argentinian peso just lost like 30 or 40% of its value in six months.

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You know, yeah.

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So, I mean, imagine that.

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Of course, that's not that unusual.

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That happened to us in COVID, right?

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That's right.

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Yeah, I mean.

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Same here in Australia.

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Yeah, I mean, you know, my grocery bill went up more than 40% after COVID, you know.

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And it's interesting that that kind of tracks very nicely with the amount that the money supply grew.

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You know, and so and that's, you know, that's for a fiat system.

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That's not a bug.

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That's a feature.

279
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That's the way it works.

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And, you know, just because Powell came in, put rates up, they stopped the money supply

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growth briefly.

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You know, M2 is now growing again.

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It's now actually at a record high.

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And, you know, there will be stresses in the system that will cause them to ramp up the

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printing as we go forward.

286
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The book talks about what those stresses are.

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And, you know, we can see some of them.

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I mean, let's talk a little bit of what's going on, you know, in the U.S. macro picture right now.

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I mean, you know, President Trump gets elected and he intelligently realizes that the deficit's a problem.

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Good call. He creates the Department of Government Efficiency. Good call.

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He puts Vivek and Elon in charge of it. Arguably a good call.

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You know, Elon says he can cut two trillion. Well, that was a little unrealistic.

293
00:20:01,786 --> 00:20:04,506
And he said he could cut one trillion. Well, that's a little unrealistic, too.

294
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they get in there and they find some really stupid programs and they do cut those okay and

295
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so i don't know there are a lot of debates about how much doge and what the department of government

296
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efficiency named doge has actually cut in terms of the u.s federal deficit and that's you know

297
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arguably it's 50 billion to 150 billion on a deficit of 1.8 okay well that's a positive but

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of course trump has a falling out with elon vivek goes to run for governor of ohio and you know doge

299
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kind of more or less fails. It fails at balancing the budget anyway. Then he pushes through the

300
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tariffs, which have created additional tariff income. And that's a positive thing, adding

301
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probably $200 of revenue to the federal, you know, accounts. But then at the same point in time,

302
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you know, they go out and they pass the big, beautiful bill, which is a spending bill

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that arguably is going to increase spending between, you know, three and five billion,

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or $3 and $5 trillion over 10 years.

305
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So that's $300 to $500 billion per year.

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So $200, you know, you save,

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let's say you save $100 from Doge.

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Let's say you save $200

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because you've got higher tariff income.

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Then you turn around

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and your big, beautiful bill spent the $300.

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So in reality,

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you're just not making any progress on the deficit.

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And the deficit this year just came in at $1.8 trillion.

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It would have been higher than that,

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but they actually had changed

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some of the accounting rules.

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And if they'd left them the way they had been,

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it would have been $2.1.

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But isn't it amazing?

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they figured out a way to make it come in flat.

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It's like inflation and CPI numbers.

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Or the employment numbers.

324
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I mean, right?

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00:21:32,006 --> 00:21:35,686
I mean, the government statistics are phony as the day is long, as we all know.

326
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So they really have not been able to balance the budget.

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00:21:40,006 --> 00:21:44,566
And this is in a economy where the stock market has held up and employment's been okay,

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although it seems to be a bit soft.

329
00:21:46,646 --> 00:21:51,826
And as we know, if we have a downturn, your point is, if they really try to bring through

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00:21:51,826 --> 00:21:55,926
austerity, you know, well, that's going to lead to a big economic slowdown.

331
00:21:56,026 --> 00:22:00,466
Last two slowdowns, but, you know, we're running a 7% of GDP budget deficit, which is high.

332
00:22:00,986 --> 00:22:05,486
And in the last two slowdowns, it grew by, you know, that amount or more in one of them,

333
00:22:05,566 --> 00:22:06,586
almost that amount in the other.

334
00:22:06,766 --> 00:22:12,006
So, you know, the problem is when you're, you know, we're like this family that's got,

335
00:22:12,246 --> 00:22:16,606
you know, a lot of credit card debt and we're taking out new cards to make the minimum payments

336
00:22:16,606 --> 00:22:17,506
on the old cards.

337
00:22:17,506 --> 00:22:27,506
And, you know, the really, I mean, the solution for that family generally would be to go bankrupt, you know, or to reach an agreement with their creditors and say, well, I can't pay all that.

338
00:22:27,566 --> 00:22:30,166
I'll pay back 30 cents on the dollar and that's better than nothing.

339
00:22:30,506 --> 00:22:33,346
And, but we can't do that or we haven't done that.

340
00:22:33,526 --> 00:22:36,466
And so, you know, off we go further and further.

341
00:22:36,466 --> 00:22:42,526
And this is why as more and more people come to see it, they're selecting things.

342
00:22:42,686 --> 00:22:46,726
They know, they can see the trap the government has put itself in.

343
00:22:46,726 --> 00:22:52,066
and they know that the apologists will not adopt the painful solution of austerity.

344
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And so they understand that we will print somehow, somewhere.

345
00:22:56,666 --> 00:22:58,146
And so they're front running.

346
00:22:58,326 --> 00:22:59,386
That's what gold is doing.

347
00:22:59,566 --> 00:23:02,426
And what's interesting to me is that we see a period right now

348
00:23:02,426 --> 00:23:06,386
that really reminds me very much of 2019, 2018, 2019, 2020,

349
00:23:07,166 --> 00:23:09,286
where, and I know some of the Bitcoiners are kind of frustrated.

350
00:23:09,426 --> 00:23:11,266
They're like, hang on a second, gold's really doing great.

351
00:23:11,686 --> 00:23:12,526
And silver is too.

352
00:23:12,606 --> 00:23:13,106
Where's ours?

353
00:23:13,646 --> 00:23:15,066
Well, first thing I would say is, remember,

354
00:23:15,066 --> 00:23:18,666
Bitcoin is still up, you know, 80, 90 percent year over year, which is pretty damn good.

355
00:23:19,326 --> 00:23:22,386
And two, gold typically moves first and Bitcoin follows.

356
00:23:23,106 --> 00:23:29,046
You know, I fully expect that, you know, right now the gold Bitcoin ratio is kind of up against this lower trend line.

357
00:23:29,466 --> 00:23:37,666
And what that means to me is that the margin right now I'm selling gold and buying Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin is about to move next and catch up quickly.

358
00:23:38,246 --> 00:23:42,286
And historically, Bitcoin, as we know, has outperformed gold massively.

359
00:23:43,146 --> 00:23:51,566
And so, you know, in my view, you know, Bitcoin will on this next run go to, you know, 150, 200, 250, you know, sometime within the next year.

360
00:23:51,566 --> 00:23:55,826
And by the way, I think during that time frame, gold will probably go 4,500 or 5,000.

361
00:23:56,006 --> 00:24:01,286
On a percentage basis, I mean, if Bitcoin goes to 250, you know, that's up 100% in the next year.

362
00:24:01,646 --> 00:24:03,726
And I don't think gold is going to double in the next year.

363
00:24:03,746 --> 00:24:05,086
I don't think it's going from four to eight.

364
00:24:05,226 --> 00:24:09,426
I ultimately think both of these things will be much, much higher in fiat terms.

365
00:24:09,526 --> 00:24:11,246
I mean, it's a funny problem, Sean.

366
00:24:11,246 --> 00:24:17,866
I mean, you know, we talk about this and I say, you know, because I know, I believe Bitcoin's going to a million bucks and gold's probably going north of 10,000.

367
00:24:18,326 --> 00:24:21,166
And that's, you know, that's the good news for those of us who invest in them.

368
00:24:21,206 --> 00:24:24,006
But the thing I caution is that, yeah, OK, fine.

369
00:24:24,006 --> 00:24:25,666
But that will be with a lot of inflation.

370
00:24:25,906 --> 00:24:29,286
So, you know, what would, as I call it, gasoline, as you call it, petrol?

371
00:24:29,426 --> 00:24:30,506
I mean, what will that cost?

372
00:24:30,646 --> 00:24:31,886
You know, what will beef cost?

373
00:24:31,986 --> 00:24:34,486
I mean, if you've got a million dollar Bitcoin, fine.

374
00:24:34,606 --> 00:24:39,646
But remember, the cost of everything you have to purchase is going to be higher, too, because there's going to be a lot of inflation to get there.

375
00:24:39,646 --> 00:24:45,306
So, you know, but all we can really do, and as you said, you know, you feel very comfortable.

376
00:24:45,386 --> 00:24:59,366
I think one of the great things about being a Bitcoiner, about understanding this, and I watched my father retire with a fixed amount of money and watch it dwindle away as inflation ate at it and he got older, is that you actually kind of feel like you're, you know, you're not losing the rat race.

377
00:24:59,466 --> 00:25:05,186
I mean, if you save in this money, you know that over time you will get richer and it will protect you.

378
00:25:05,366 --> 00:25:09,086
And those are legitimate savings that you can rely on in your later years.

379
00:25:09,086 --> 00:25:13,066
And just knowing that is an enormous sense of comfort to me.

380
00:25:13,686 --> 00:25:20,306
Like most human beings, one of your great fears, particularly as you age and you have less ability to earn money, is that you're going to run out of money.

381
00:25:20,606 --> 00:25:21,766
You know, it's a bummer.

382
00:25:22,046 --> 00:25:22,486
100%.

383
00:25:22,486 --> 00:25:24,226
You don't want to run out of money.

384
00:25:24,506 --> 00:25:29,946
And if you've got a form of money that's keeping pace with inflation or even beating inflation, as Bitcoin really is.

385
00:25:30,026 --> 00:25:33,986
I mean, I think gold is designed and has historically kept pace with inflation.

386
00:25:34,566 --> 00:25:37,246
You put your money in gold, you're not going to lose money compared to inflation.

387
00:25:37,766 --> 00:25:41,866
Bitcoin is going to outstrip inflation because you've still got the adoption curve going on.

388
00:25:42,546 --> 00:25:45,446
You know, it's gold that everyone doesn't understand yet.

389
00:25:46,146 --> 00:25:51,766
And, you know, I read this morning that still only about four and a half percent of the world owns some Bitcoin or gets it.

390
00:25:52,226 --> 00:25:53,746
So we've got a long way to go.

391
00:25:53,746 --> 00:26:00,506
I mean, this is the Jesse Myers chart where there's 900 trillion of assets out there.

392
00:26:00,586 --> 00:26:04,166
And Bitcoin is worth 2 trillion or 2.1 trillion, something like that.

393
00:26:04,346 --> 00:26:07,106
So that's two-tenths of 1%.

394
00:26:07,246 --> 00:26:11,866
And yet it's, you know, the best performing financial asset of the last 16 years.

395
00:26:12,306 --> 00:26:15,926
And it's the hardest financial asset on a stock to flow basis.

396
00:26:16,126 --> 00:26:16,826
It's harder than gold.

397
00:26:17,186 --> 00:26:19,306
And every four years it gets harder still.

398
00:26:19,606 --> 00:26:24,906
So the combination of that and the fact that this adoption curve is going to keep going

399
00:26:24,906 --> 00:26:28,506
and in 10 years, half the country is going to own Bitcoin.

400
00:26:29,026 --> 00:26:32,026
You know, there's no place for this price to go except for up.

401
00:26:32,106 --> 00:26:35,886
And that's another point that I would try to make is that Bitcoin was the invention.

402
00:26:35,886 --> 00:26:37,506
It was an invention of digital scarcity.

403
00:26:38,166 --> 00:26:42,006
I think the important thing to understand about that is that, and it's a commodity,

404
00:26:42,206 --> 00:26:43,446
one Bitcoin is the same as another.

405
00:26:43,706 --> 00:26:48,046
So the important thing to understand on this is that every other commodity in the world,

406
00:26:48,126 --> 00:26:49,866
if the price goes up, we make more of it.

407
00:26:50,046 --> 00:26:52,846
You know, if oil goes skyrocketing, we'll drill for more oil.

408
00:26:53,006 --> 00:26:54,066
Wheat, we'll plant more wheat.

409
00:26:54,826 --> 00:26:57,166
You know, anything out there, gold, we'll mine more gold.

410
00:26:57,226 --> 00:26:58,586
It takes time, but we'll mine more gold.

411
00:26:59,186 --> 00:27:01,746
Algorithmically, the amount, the supply of Bitcoin is fixed.

412
00:27:02,146 --> 00:27:05,606
And so we've never really had a financial asset like that before.

413
00:27:05,886 --> 00:27:09,566
So a higher price does not change the supply.

414
00:27:09,966 --> 00:27:12,366
And I don't think most people have gotten their head around that.

415
00:27:12,446 --> 00:27:17,006
Once you get your head around that, you realize that no matter what price you pay, it's not too high.

416
00:27:17,166 --> 00:27:19,066
And I know you've handed out the book.

417
00:27:19,686 --> 00:27:21,206
Yeah, yeah, at the time, right.

418
00:27:21,246 --> 00:27:22,046
I mean, you've got to wait.

419
00:27:22,206 --> 00:27:24,346
But, I mean, I've handed out the book to many people.

420
00:27:24,406 --> 00:27:27,566
I've had many friends come to me and they say, hey, I get it.

421
00:27:27,586 --> 00:27:28,266
I'm happy for you.

422
00:27:28,266 --> 00:27:28,926
You bought it cheaper.

423
00:27:29,006 --> 00:27:29,646
You've made some money.

424
00:27:29,706 --> 00:27:30,446
That's all good.

425
00:27:30,566 --> 00:27:31,546
I say, yeah, I'm not selling.

426
00:27:32,186 --> 00:27:34,206
And they say, well, you know, I can't buy it now.

427
00:27:34,206 --> 00:27:34,986
It's too expensive.

428
00:27:34,986 --> 00:27:40,246
And I said, well, yeah, but in five years when it's a million, aren't you going to wish you bought it at, you know, 112?

429
00:27:40,706 --> 00:27:42,986
And they're kind of like, well, yeah, but I don't know if it's going to a million.

430
00:27:43,086 --> 00:27:44,786
I try to explain to them why I think it is.

431
00:27:45,546 --> 00:27:53,006
And, you know, a model I've used, I've talked about a lot, I think it's a useful model is, you know, fiat in my book is failing.

432
00:27:53,006 --> 00:27:56,246
And that failure is becoming more obvious, accelerating.

433
00:27:56,246 --> 00:28:02,726
rating so if we think of fiat as being kind of the titanic and it's sinking and then we we think

434
00:28:02,726 --> 00:28:08,286
of gold and silver as being lifeboats that you know that won't sink because they're sound you

435
00:28:08,286 --> 00:28:12,106
know yeah i bought some lifeboat seats a lot cheaper three or four years ago and i'm sure

436
00:28:12,106 --> 00:28:16,786
look i when i bought mine i wish i was max buying his at two dollars a coin right but

437
00:28:16,786 --> 00:28:22,286
whatever but i bought them because i believed you know i understood what it was you know now that now

438
00:28:22,286 --> 00:28:27,366
the seat to you is more expensive, but you're on the Titanic. Do you want to own a seat or don't

439
00:28:27,366 --> 00:28:32,066
you? You know? And, and so I try to get all the people I talk to and say, look, I, you know,

440
00:28:32,466 --> 00:28:35,926
okay. You think it's magic internet money. You're worried about security. You're worried about

441
00:28:35,926 --> 00:28:40,566
hacking, you know, all the various things, quantum computing, all the fun. Fine. I'm not suggesting

442
00:28:40,566 --> 00:28:44,386
you take a hundred percent of your net worth and put it in this, but to have zero, you're really

443
00:28:44,386 --> 00:28:50,306
missing a very, very asymmetric bet because I'm, I'm highly confident. This thing will go up 10X

444
00:28:50,306 --> 00:28:56,066
within a kind of a six-year window and another 10x after that in the next in the following 10 years so

445
00:28:56,066 --> 00:29:01,306
you know that would make it you know that would make it 10 million dollars a coin so and and then

446
00:29:01,306 --> 00:29:05,526
finally the last piece is i try to explain you don't have to buy a whole coin a lot of people

447
00:29:05,526 --> 00:29:08,986
don't get that i have a lot of people say well i don't have 112 000 i know you don't that doesn't

448
00:29:08,986 --> 00:29:14,506
matter you know i mean i have i have friends i know i know my kids i mean they dca 50 bucks a

449
00:29:14,506 --> 00:29:19,926
week you know i mean you can buy it you know you buy any amount of it in small amounts and just do

450
00:29:19,926 --> 00:29:25,086
it consistently and five years from now i think you'll be your future five year out self will thank

451
00:29:25,086 --> 00:29:30,926
your current self that you did it so one thing that i've been saying to people like directly in

452
00:29:30,926 --> 00:29:35,546
regard to that point i'm like the way that i'm thinking about it because i also believe that

453
00:29:35,546 --> 00:29:40,186
one bitcoin will be about a million dollars in the next five years give or take whatever but

454
00:29:40,186 --> 00:29:44,766
roughly in that time frame and then the five to ten years preceding that about ten million dollars

455
00:29:44,766 --> 00:29:49,986
as well us and so i say like work out what your weekly expenses are maybe it's a thousand dollars

456
00:29:49,986 --> 00:29:55,326
a week to be able to live maybe it's two thousand dollars a week to be able to live comfortably

457
00:29:55,326 --> 00:30:02,606
i'm like for every hundred dollars you're saving now today that that's a thousand dollars in in

458
00:30:02,606 --> 00:30:08,006
five years so if it's a thousand dollars for one week to be able to live it's costing you a hundred

459
00:30:08,006 --> 00:30:14,066
dollars today to buy back a week of your life in five years time and they're like oh yeah i'm like

460
00:30:14,066 --> 00:30:17,126
if you extrapolate that out to when Bitcoin's at $10 million,

461
00:30:17,446 --> 00:30:18,906
that $100 is $10,000.

462
00:30:19,066 --> 00:30:21,286
Obviously, the purchasing power and stuff like that,

463
00:30:21,786 --> 00:30:24,286
maybe it's only half that amount or whatever,

464
00:30:24,546 --> 00:30:25,986
but you can just buy a little bit.

465
00:30:26,446 --> 00:30:27,826
There'll definitely bend some inflation,

466
00:30:28,106 --> 00:30:30,166
but you will beat it by a lot, yeah.

467
00:30:31,046 --> 00:30:31,646
For sure.

468
00:30:32,166 --> 00:30:33,886
And then just getting them into that mindset,

469
00:30:34,046 --> 00:30:35,246
you can just buy a little bit,

470
00:30:35,246 --> 00:30:40,106
and it's just about buying like a week of your future back in time,

471
00:30:40,186 --> 00:30:41,606
and that's really what I see money as.

472
00:30:42,086 --> 00:30:43,046
Going back a little bit,

473
00:30:43,046 --> 00:30:51,386
you said bitcoin adoptions are um for 4.5 that's actually a little bit surprising maybe a little

474
00:30:51,386 --> 00:30:57,146
bit higher than what i think because four to five people out of every hundred that i talk to

475
00:30:57,146 --> 00:31:01,786
don't hold bitcoin and i talk to a lot of people trying to get them to read the book

476
00:31:01,786 --> 00:31:09,106
but i believe that's three and a half percent of um people in a movement is needed for a revolution

477
00:31:09,106 --> 00:31:17,146
So it seems like we're over that tipping scale and then Bitcoin's also over a $2 trillion market cap as well.

478
00:31:17,366 --> 00:31:22,826
I don't know if we've ever seen a $2 trillion anything really fail now.

479
00:31:23,286 --> 00:31:30,526
And then even like with the biggest liquidations over the weekend, $19 billion or whatever, it's just starting to bounce back up.

480
00:31:31,086 --> 00:31:35,606
What do you think could get in the way of Bitcoin succeeding?

481
00:31:35,606 --> 00:31:42,706
Like lately over the last year, we don't need to go into the details, but there's been like the node wars, Notts vs. Core, etc.

482
00:31:42,886 --> 00:31:48,166
But is there any like foreseeable risk you can see to Bitcoin as a money or a network?

483
00:31:48,886 --> 00:31:50,426
No, I really don't.

484
00:31:50,526 --> 00:31:53,046
I mean, yeah, Notts vs. Core is annoying.

485
00:31:53,366 --> 00:31:57,346
I don't think it's an existential threat because it's really not a protocol change.

486
00:31:57,386 --> 00:31:58,906
It's more something on the sides.

487
00:31:59,086 --> 00:32:03,086
It's annoying, though, because it could balloon the size of the blockchain and it would be harder to run a node.

488
00:32:03,086 --> 00:32:06,606
I mean, also, it's annoying because of the way that core developers have behaved.

489
00:32:06,746 --> 00:32:12,806
I think some of them have behaved in a very immature fashion, which, you know, is not befitting of what Bitcoin really is.

490
00:32:13,606 --> 00:32:19,226
But setting that aside, and that's, you know, when I asked Michael Saylor once, what's your major concern about this thing?

491
00:32:19,246 --> 00:32:22,606
He said, well, I just hope core doesn't go rogue and do stupid shit.

492
00:32:22,746 --> 00:32:25,546
But even if they do do stupid shit, everybody gets to vote on it.

493
00:32:25,706 --> 00:32:29,766
And so, you know, if they do something really stupid, I don't think most people will go in that direction.

494
00:32:29,766 --> 00:32:41,986
You know, I guess the thing I could see that I keep my eye on, I do think it's relevant, is as you recall, before Trump was elected, the blue administration here was not very friendly to Bitcoin or crypto in general.

495
00:32:42,426 --> 00:32:42,826
That's probably not.

496
00:32:42,826 --> 00:32:42,846
That's probably not.

497
00:32:42,846 --> 00:32:43,666
Right.

498
00:32:44,406 --> 00:32:46,366
You know, politics are politics.

499
00:32:46,646 --> 00:32:49,426
And so in 28, there'll be another election for president.

500
00:32:50,046 --> 00:32:52,746
And Trump can't run, but J.D. Vance probably will.

501
00:32:53,206 --> 00:32:54,286
I don't know what will be going on.

502
00:32:54,326 --> 00:32:55,406
There might be very high inflation.

503
00:32:55,586 --> 00:32:57,066
There'll be all kinds of trouble in the country.

504
00:32:57,066 --> 00:33:03,226
And, you know, the Democrats might cook up some cock and bull story where it's like, OK, you know, we're going to give you all stimulus.

505
00:33:03,626 --> 00:33:14,492
And you know this inflation is a factor of this existing you know administration And we can fix it even though they can And you know they going to tell a bunch of lies and people are going to be hurting you know with high inflation

506
00:33:15,092 --> 00:33:17,312
And for all we know at the margin, they're going to win.

507
00:33:17,772 --> 00:33:19,632
And I'm not saying that's going to happen.

508
00:33:19,672 --> 00:33:20,872
I'm just saying it's a possibility.

509
00:33:21,552 --> 00:33:26,472
And then, you know, if they get in there, they're going to, you know, they're going to probably take a much more hostile view towards this.

510
00:33:26,472 --> 00:33:30,772
I think, you know, we had a pretty good Keynesian model here going and we liked the way things were.

511
00:33:30,972 --> 00:33:33,472
And this gold and Bitcoin stuff, it's really messing us up.

512
00:33:33,472 --> 00:33:46,172
We need to either tax it or confiscate it or, you know, regulate it or, you know, make, I mean, and I mean, they've already talked about trying to pass some rules where you make it illegal to self custody and stuff, which is just outrageous.

513
00:33:46,972 --> 00:33:47,092
Crazy.

514
00:33:47,612 --> 00:33:57,572
And so, so those, you know, I feel like we've got three years of real open running space where that kind of administration in the U.S. is not likely to occur.

515
00:33:58,172 --> 00:34:02,632
But, you know, this is why people ask me about the ETS versus self custody.

516
00:34:03,352 --> 00:34:05,392
I mean, I think by that time, we'll see.

517
00:34:05,492 --> 00:34:06,492
We'll see who's going to win.

518
00:34:07,592 --> 00:34:09,752
You know, for all we know, Trump will have done a reset by then.

519
00:34:09,852 --> 00:34:12,712
I mean, Besant has talked about the need for a monetary reset

520
00:34:12,712 --> 00:34:15,372
akin to what they did at Bretton Woods in 1944.

521
00:34:16,692 --> 00:34:21,352
But if the reset has not happened and red team looks like they might lose

522
00:34:21,352 --> 00:34:23,692
and blue team is coming in, and, you know,

523
00:34:23,692 --> 00:34:26,612
blue team was talking about taxing unrealized capital gains.

524
00:34:26,852 --> 00:34:27,932
I mean, unfortunately.

525
00:34:27,932 --> 00:34:31,352
I want to talk about that because that's a big topic in Australia.

526
00:34:31,652 --> 00:34:32,012
Is it?

527
00:34:32,012 --> 00:34:45,832
Yeah, I mean, now fortunately, you know, the beautiful thing about self-custody Bitcoin is that, you know, I mean, if you view the law as being unfair and, you know, you're willing to break it, you know, you can tell the government to go pound sand.

528
00:34:45,952 --> 00:34:47,172
I mean, how much Bitcoin do I have?

529
00:34:47,192 --> 00:34:47,892
I'm not telling you.

530
00:34:48,472 --> 00:34:49,732
You know, pay taxes on it?

531
00:34:49,732 --> 00:34:50,512
I'm not telling you.

532
00:34:50,592 --> 00:34:51,512
They can't get at it.

533
00:34:51,512 --> 00:34:55,992
If you've got your words, you know, short of torturing those words out of you, they can't get you.

534
00:34:57,012 --> 00:35:00,612
But, boy, they could make life really unpleasant for you, I would imagine.

535
00:35:00,612 --> 00:35:07,272
And, you know, and I mean, there's even a scenario where I would imagine Bitcoiners, U.S. Bitcoiners might say, hey, you know what?

536
00:35:07,632 --> 00:35:08,972
I don't need to live here anymore.

537
00:35:10,572 --> 00:35:12,652
Bitcoin was designed for that.

538
00:35:12,752 --> 00:35:16,912
You know, you move to El Salvador, you take your keys, you got your money, you live happily ever after.

539
00:35:17,092 --> 00:35:20,732
So, you know, I think that's a I think that's a legitimate risk.

540
00:35:20,752 --> 00:35:28,872
I mean, if you want to hear my model, I was just at a thing called Camp Nakamoto this week and we're all sitting around the campfire kind of talking about what might unfold.

541
00:35:28,872 --> 00:35:33,692
I mean, my model is actually that we're going to have another good run here.

542
00:35:33,832 --> 00:35:35,392
The next three years will be good for Bitcoin.

543
00:35:35,592 --> 00:35:36,672
We'll have high inflation.

544
00:35:37,492 --> 00:35:40,872
And that somehow the Democrats will figure out a way to win that next election.

545
00:35:41,392 --> 00:35:43,112
And they will print like crazy.

546
00:35:43,272 --> 00:35:45,552
And we will trend toward hyperinflation.

547
00:35:45,792 --> 00:35:48,212
And they might do some of these bad things I've talked about.

548
00:35:48,472 --> 00:35:55,492
And then at that point in time, the pain will be so large that everyone will scream, you know, we've got to fix this problem.

549
00:35:55,492 --> 00:36:00,132
and I think at that point in time what will happen is Michael Saylor will run for president

550
00:36:00,132 --> 00:36:06,952
and he will come in with a master plan, an engineer's view of what went wrong and how to fix it

551
00:36:06,952 --> 00:36:09,512
and things will be bad enough that he'll win

552
00:36:09,512 --> 00:36:14,252
and we will actually then migrate to a sound money standard

553
00:36:14,252 --> 00:36:17,612
we'll have a Marshall Plan for nuclear power development

554
00:36:17,612 --> 00:36:21,912
we'll denute the entire world, we'll have peace treaties with everybody

555
00:36:21,912 --> 00:36:27,952
and, quote, unquote, this, quote, fourth turning will be over and we'll live in a new,

556
00:36:28,132 --> 00:36:32,452
beautiful, abundant age. So that's my optimistic scenario of how we get out of that. And that would

557
00:36:32,452 --> 00:36:38,712
be, let's see, he would be elected sometime in a 2032 election. So, you know, because the Democrats

558
00:36:38,712 --> 00:36:43,252
would have four years and they'll just make it unbearably bad. And that will set it up for him

559
00:36:43,252 --> 00:36:47,392
to win. But also by that time, he'll be the world's richest man. He's already said he's going

560
00:36:47,392 --> 00:36:51,472
to give his keys away. So my suspicion is, you know, people say, well, he's not doing this for

561
00:36:51,472 --> 00:36:54,172
the money. He's already rich. I mean, he's actually doing it because he's an American,

562
00:36:54,252 --> 00:36:58,592
he's a patriot and he wants to save the world, which I think he does. I think he's a good guy.

563
00:36:58,732 --> 00:37:04,412
So, so that's my optimistic case of where we go. But, you know, 2032 is quite a few years from now.

564
00:37:04,412 --> 00:37:07,952
And so, you know, we've got to go through, sadly, we've got to go through the,

565
00:37:08,512 --> 00:37:11,152
you know, the pain of, of the inflation that gets us there.

566
00:37:11,532 --> 00:37:15,372
That's such an amazing rabbit hole to go down. We may come back to it.

567
00:37:15,652 --> 00:37:20,172
Okay. I know that was out of the blue, right. But I just thought it was on my mind and I just

568
00:37:20,172 --> 00:37:24,892
talked about it and i you know i'm an optimist i'm a i'm very much an optimist that this world

569
00:37:24,892 --> 00:37:31,952
is going to get a whole lot better on the other side of it you know i agree um and i think like

570
00:37:31,952 --> 00:37:37,352
one by one and people's own lives saving in bitcoin it can get better oh yeah quicker and

571
00:37:37,352 --> 00:37:45,152
then as the um nation states move over so so a couple of things like we are seeing um it's like

572
00:37:45,152 --> 00:37:47,172
the Luxembourg Sovereign Wealth Fund.

573
00:37:47,292 --> 00:37:50,652
They had 1% of their 900 million portfolio

574
00:37:50,652 --> 00:37:52,272
to the Bitcoin ETFs.

575
00:37:52,992 --> 00:37:55,152
Like all around the world, obviously El Salvador,

576
00:37:55,512 --> 00:37:58,092
what Michael Saylor is doing with MicroStrategy.

577
00:37:58,332 --> 00:38:01,192
It's not like when you say things like that,

578
00:38:01,292 --> 00:38:04,172
they're unfounded or they're baseless.

579
00:38:04,732 --> 00:38:07,572
It feels like the world is starting to wake up

580
00:38:07,572 --> 00:38:10,592
and start to hoard as much Bitcoin as possible.

581
00:38:10,772 --> 00:38:12,952
Some people are far, far ahead.

582
00:38:12,952 --> 00:38:18,252
obviously Michael Saylor with strategy and what he's done there he's like well ahead of the the

583
00:38:18,252 --> 00:38:23,112
curve but it seems like all right like people with a little bit of common sense or that are

584
00:38:23,112 --> 00:38:27,412
like really paying attention to the problem are starting to see that bitcoin is this amazing

585
00:38:27,412 --> 00:38:34,192
solution even you know Trump ran on this promise of the strategic bitcoin reserve and stuff and

586
00:38:34,192 --> 00:38:40,312
it sounded like he could understand it and he could see it and that this would be a good thing

587
00:38:40,312 --> 00:38:50,952
But we're seeing sort of other nation states or private companies, individuals do this trade, but we haven't really seen it from the United States with the strategic Bitcoin.

588
00:38:51,432 --> 00:38:51,952
Yeah.

589
00:38:52,192 --> 00:38:57,732
Like they bought 20 billion in Argentine pesos before they bought a single Bitcoin.

590
00:38:57,952 --> 00:38:59,512
So like, how do you think that plays out?

591
00:39:00,092 --> 00:39:01,032
Well, yeah.

592
00:39:01,072 --> 00:39:03,292
And I think we've all been frustrated by that.

593
00:39:03,292 --> 00:39:08,012
I mean, Senator Loomis's bill, you know, laid out a plan to buy a bunch, you know.

594
00:39:08,012 --> 00:39:11,912
and Basant talked about doing it in a revenue neutral way.

595
00:39:12,072 --> 00:39:15,492
I mean, you know, sadly, they've probably got other priorities in front of it.

596
00:39:15,572 --> 00:39:19,872
I mean, for starters, if they don't sell any of the 200,000 coins they have, that's a start.

597
00:39:19,872 --> 00:39:27,232
You know, I would say that they will hopefully get to it.

598
00:39:27,912 --> 00:39:30,272
They'll come to the point where they start to buy it.

599
00:39:31,012 --> 00:39:36,612
I mean, and as Saylor has said, the first country that figures out a print, you know, fiat to buy Bitcoin kind of wins.

600
00:39:36,612 --> 00:39:55,952
I think they're also aware they know the dollar is failing. They need the dollar to be devalued, but they don't want to do it too quickly. They need a transition period. They need time. Going straight to full hyper-Bitcoinization slash hyperinflation, that's dangerous and a mess in their mind, and they're probably right about that.

601
00:39:55,952 --> 00:40:21,532
But they're trending in that direction. I mean, I think there's some interesting data points, too. So mostly, I don't know how many Aussies probably know this name. There's a guy named Stephen Moran, Stephen Moran, who is the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in the White House. He works for Trump or works for Trump. And he's young. He's a Bitcoiner. I mean, he tweeted. In fact, this is my upcoming quarterly report, which will be free and out probably by the time you publish this. So it's at my website for free.

602
00:40:21,532 --> 00:40:26,432
he tweeted you know i'm talking about some problem and he tweeted bitcoin fixes this okay

603
00:40:26,432 --> 00:40:31,792
now so this is a guy who's you know and we know lutnik is positive we know kennedy is positive

604
00:40:31,792 --> 00:40:37,292
we even know besant's positive besant is a gold bug but he's admitted that that bitcoin is digital

605
00:40:37,292 --> 00:40:41,572
gold so so we've got all these people around trump who are very positive on sound money

606
00:40:41,572 --> 00:40:46,772
and and arguably you're talking about a reset you know how much trump himself understands a

607
00:40:46,772 --> 00:40:51,292
little unclear but he's being advised by good people and this moran guy is very interesting

608
00:40:51,292 --> 00:40:55,392
because, you know, Trump has attacked the Federal Reserve, as we haven't discussed this, but as most

609
00:40:55,392 --> 00:40:59,092
people in Australia may have not seen it, but he's really attacked the Federal Reserve. I mean,

610
00:40:59,492 --> 00:41:02,932
he's called Jerome Powell a moron. He said he's too late. I mean, it's unprecedented.

611
00:41:02,932 --> 00:41:07,192
He wants to kick him out, doesn't he, next year? Yeah, well, he's going to get kicked out. In May

612
00:41:07,192 --> 00:41:12,092
of next year, he's gone. His term ends, and he will appoint somebody else. But, and, you know,

613
00:41:12,112 --> 00:41:16,812
he went after Lisa Cook, who's a woman who's on the Federal Reserve Board and claims she committed

614
00:41:16,812 --> 00:41:21,752
mortgage fraud. You know, pretty arguably she did, but that's the point of the Supreme Court,

615
00:41:21,872 --> 00:41:26,112
whether that justitudes cause for firing her. But he got lucky. This other Fed Reserve,

616
00:41:26,352 --> 00:41:31,932
Fed governor quit. And so there was an open seat and he put Stephen, Stephen Moran, his

617
00:41:31,932 --> 00:41:36,712
council economic advisor, he put him on the Fed board. And, you know, this is a guy, so there's

618
00:41:36,712 --> 00:41:41,732
a Bitcoiner on the board of the Federal Reserve, right? And I did not know this. Yeah. Right. And

619
00:41:41,732 --> 00:41:45,612
And so this guy is a Bitcoiner, full-fledged Bitcoiner.

620
00:41:45,692 --> 00:41:49,412
In the most recent Fed meeting, you know, Powell said, let's cut rates 25 bips.

621
00:41:49,652 --> 00:41:52,032
And Moran dissented and said, no, we should do it 50.

622
00:41:52,652 --> 00:41:57,012
And both Trump and Moran have said interest rates need to come down between 200 and 300 basis points.

623
00:41:57,072 --> 00:42:02,392
And, of course, they need to do this, Sean, because if they take those rates down that low,

624
00:42:02,392 --> 00:42:05,672
that will lower the government's cost of borrowing, which will help with the deficit.

625
00:42:06,412 --> 00:42:07,812
Okay, that's the good news.

626
00:42:07,812 --> 00:42:11,932
The bad news is if they take rates down that low, you know, borrowing will increase.

627
00:42:12,072 --> 00:42:15,172
M2 will increase very rapidly and it'll be highly inflationary.

628
00:42:15,692 --> 00:42:18,212
I mean, they haven't really solved the last bout of inflation.

629
00:42:18,552 --> 00:42:24,132
And yet they'd be cutting into the, you know, they'd be cutting, you know, in an inflationary environment.

630
00:42:24,252 --> 00:42:27,332
And so like the 70s, we would have another big up wave in inflation.

631
00:42:27,532 --> 00:42:30,392
But, you know, I think that's what they want.

632
00:42:30,492 --> 00:42:33,292
I mean, they know that they have to grow faster than the debt grows.

633
00:42:33,332 --> 00:42:35,292
They have to grow GDP faster than the debt grows.

634
00:42:35,292 --> 00:42:39,312
and really the only way to do that is to have inflationary growth.

635
00:42:40,532 --> 00:42:43,632
So that's kind of where they're going, and you can see it.

636
00:42:43,712 --> 00:42:44,772
I mean, they're talking about it.

637
00:42:44,912 --> 00:42:47,812
Vicente has said, when Doge failed, he kind of said,

638
00:42:47,872 --> 00:42:49,752
well, yeah, we've done the best we could there,

639
00:42:49,812 --> 00:42:52,352
but really the solution to this problem is we're going to grow our way out of it.

640
00:42:52,932 --> 00:42:55,572
Okay, fine. How do you get growth? You lower interest rates.

641
00:42:56,352 --> 00:43:01,312
And so Powell is there until May of next year, 26,

642
00:43:02,332 --> 00:43:04,632
but with the markets, markets are forward-looking,

643
00:43:04,632 --> 00:43:27,492
So it's October. May is not that far away, right? You know, seven months or something, eight months. And, you know, the market says, OK, you know, we get it. You know, when he's gone, you're going to put Moran in the Fed chair or some other guy in the Fed chair. He's going to direct him to cut rates a lot. And, you know, that's going to massively fuel inflation. And that's why, in my opinion, that's why gold and silver have the bid that they have.

644
00:43:27,492 --> 00:43:33,672
You know, the market can read the tea leaves of what's coming and say, okay, well, fine.

645
00:43:33,712 --> 00:43:34,772
You want to do that? That's fine.

646
00:43:35,312 --> 00:43:39,512
You know, we understand that, you know, these metals are a protection and we're going to buy them.

647
00:43:40,732 --> 00:43:42,032
It sounds scary.

648
00:43:42,132 --> 00:43:48,412
I guess it'll be interesting for everyone holding Bitcoin or precious metals, hard assets.

649
00:43:48,552 --> 00:43:50,492
They're going to feel like they're getting wealthier and wealthier.

650
00:43:50,652 --> 00:43:56,312
But in that moment, for everyone not holding it, it's going to be a pretty hard transition.

651
00:43:56,312 --> 00:43:57,252
It's going to spark.

652
00:43:57,492 --> 00:43:58,652
Yeah, it's going to really suck.

653
00:43:58,712 --> 00:44:00,132
It's going to be high inflation again.

654
00:44:00,692 --> 00:44:08,172
And, you know, for those holding metals in Bitcoin, I mean, I've got a lot of people, a lot of my investors, others are calling.

655
00:44:08,272 --> 00:44:09,532
They say, well, gosh, it's gone up so much.

656
00:44:09,592 --> 00:44:10,512
Don't we sell now?

657
00:44:10,572 --> 00:44:12,112
And I'm like, well, yes.

658
00:44:12,112 --> 00:44:12,492
That's a lot.

659
00:44:12,852 --> 00:44:13,172
Yeah.

660
00:44:13,432 --> 00:44:14,612
And sell and buy what?

661
00:44:14,892 --> 00:44:15,712
You know what I mean?

662
00:44:16,172 --> 00:44:17,132
You're going to buy stocks?

663
00:44:17,212 --> 00:44:17,892
They're not cheap.

664
00:44:17,892 --> 00:44:23,912
You know, you want to hang out in the dollar or you want to buy T-bills and get 3% when, you know, you know inflation is going to be higher than that.

665
00:44:23,912 --> 00:44:27,632
I mean, there's really nothing to sell in favor of today.

666
00:44:27,832 --> 00:44:39,072
I mean, so I think, you know, the hardest thing to do is actually going to be to hang on to the positions you have, you know, because we're in kind of uncharted territory in this monetary reset.

667
00:44:39,832 --> 00:44:40,372
Interesting times.

668
00:44:40,372 --> 00:44:47,912
And I guess like on that note and to round out the pod is I'm such a big advocate of Bitcoin self-custody.

669
00:44:48,092 --> 00:44:50,672
I believe not your keys, not your coins.

670
00:44:50,672 --> 00:44:58,972
And I believe that after a while, everyone should be running their own node, becoming their own bank, doing it properly for many reasons.

671
00:44:58,972 --> 00:45:10,112
But some people, they'll buy the ETF or they'll leave Bitcoin on the exchange or they'll go into like a collaborative custody model with someone like Unchained or something like that.

672
00:45:10,132 --> 00:45:16,752
And I guess that's a bit better than leaving on the exchange or the ETF from my opinion.

673
00:45:16,752 --> 00:45:21,592
then people go like even further out for what I consider the risk curve and be holding

674
00:45:21,592 --> 00:45:27,652
Bitcoin treasury companies where they've got no access to the underlying asset full stop.

675
00:45:28,312 --> 00:45:34,452
What are your thoughts in regards to how one should approach Bitcoin? Is it just like buy and

676
00:45:34,452 --> 00:45:41,632
hold Bitcoin in self-custody or is it nuance for different people? Yeah, well, look, it's different

677
00:45:41,632 --> 00:45:45,812
strokes for different folks and their flavors here. I mean, as you're aware on many of your

678
00:45:45,812 --> 00:45:50,452
list probably. I mean, self-custody is not simple. It's not incredibly hard, but it's not simple.

679
00:45:50,572 --> 00:45:56,232
But if you're, you know, 60 plus years old, not very technical, you know, you may not have the

680
00:45:56,232 --> 00:45:59,832
ability, certainly you wouldn't have the ability without some handholding perhaps to figure out

681
00:45:59,832 --> 00:46:04,892
how to conduct self-custody. You get a wallet, get a hard wallet and take your coins off the

682
00:46:04,892 --> 00:46:09,072
exchange, et cetera. But it's doable. It's not impossible. It's just not simple. You know,

683
00:46:09,152 --> 00:46:14,032
I've always told many older people and they want exposure to the price. They're not really worried

684
00:46:14,032 --> 00:46:17,912
about the government grabbing their coins. And so they buy an ETF and that's perfectly suitable.

685
00:46:18,032 --> 00:46:22,032
They'll get the price appreciation. I then say, okay, once you've got that, now you're started,

686
00:46:22,252 --> 00:46:27,452
you know, now you need to learn about self-custody. I don't think, as I think I said earlier, you know,

687
00:46:27,532 --> 00:46:31,772
I think with this administration, the risk of Bitcoin confiscation is very, very low.

688
00:46:32,212 --> 00:46:37,332
So, you know, you probably got a few years to learn self-custody. And so, you know, I wouldn't

689
00:46:37,332 --> 00:46:42,132
freak out if you haven't, I mean, I'm with you, not your keys, not your coins. And, you know,

690
00:46:42,132 --> 00:46:46,852
I'm principally self custody, except for a few IRA accounts that I can't really move.

691
00:46:47,272 --> 00:46:50,212
But the ETFs are kind of a gateway drug.

692
00:46:50,452 --> 00:46:52,972
And, you know, you're going to get the price appreciation.

693
00:46:53,132 --> 00:46:57,612
Your only risk there is that, you know, if the government and it's true with Unchained or any of the others,

694
00:46:57,612 --> 00:47:03,472
if the government calls up and says, hey, you know, we are grabbing these things, paying everybody out in fiat.

695
00:47:04,492 --> 00:47:07,332
Tell us who your customers are and send us the coins.

696
00:47:07,452 --> 00:47:09,812
Well, they're going to do it. They're not going to break the law.

697
00:47:09,812 --> 00:47:15,832
other, you know, men with guns would come and put them in jail. So that's certainly the risk.

698
00:47:15,972 --> 00:47:19,792
I don't rate it as a high risk today. That could change, as I said, with the Blue Administration.

699
00:47:20,352 --> 00:47:25,412
Regarding the Bitcoin treasury companies, let's talk about that. So the notion of a treasury

700
00:47:25,412 --> 00:47:31,172
company is pretty straightforward. You know, the purpose is to buy and hold Bitcoin. It's like a

701
00:47:31,172 --> 00:47:36,172
closed-end mutual fund in that respect, although they can issue new shares and use those new shares

702
00:47:36,172 --> 00:47:37,352
to buy Bitcoin too.

703
00:47:38,432 --> 00:47:41,052
In theory, all us being equal,

704
00:47:41,152 --> 00:47:42,392
they should kind of trade at the value

705
00:47:42,392 --> 00:47:43,272
of the underlying Bitcoin,

706
00:47:43,432 --> 00:47:44,712
even though the shareholder can't go

707
00:47:44,712 --> 00:47:45,872
and get the underlying Bitcoin.

708
00:47:46,752 --> 00:47:48,092
And closed-end mutual funds,

709
00:47:48,192 --> 00:47:49,412
sometimes they traded a premium

710
00:47:49,412 --> 00:47:50,872
and sometimes they traded a discount.

711
00:47:51,072 --> 00:47:52,092
Right now, a lot of them are ex,

712
00:47:52,552 --> 00:47:54,052
the Bitcoin treasurer going to trade

713
00:47:54,052 --> 00:47:55,912
and get a discount just because

714
00:47:55,912 --> 00:47:57,712
they haven't been particularly well managed

715
00:47:57,712 --> 00:47:59,332
and there was a frenzy

716
00:47:59,332 --> 00:48:00,452
and everyone got overexcited.

717
00:48:00,632 --> 00:48:01,832
But that's also leading to

718
00:48:01,832 --> 00:48:03,132
some of the better managed ones

719
00:48:03,132 --> 00:48:04,932
buying some of the poorly managed ones.

720
00:48:05,712 --> 00:48:25,732
But the reason that a treasury company exists and the reason there's actually a business model there, and I believe there really is, I own strategy, I believe in Saylor, I believe in what he's doing, is that these companies can actually use the capital markets to arbitrage the difference between somebody who wants a 10% yield with no volatility and somebody who wants, you know, the volatility and growth of Bitcoin.

721
00:48:26,292 --> 00:48:26,952
And what do I mean?

722
00:48:27,032 --> 00:48:39,432
Well, I think Saylor with strategy just created a product, a stretch product, where he basically gives you a way to get a monthly dividend, you know, equal to somewhere between 10.

723
00:48:39,432 --> 00:48:41,632
I've heard he's going to increase it to 11, 12, but whatever.

724
00:48:41,732 --> 00:48:45,992
So let's call it 10% annually by buying his preferred.

725
00:48:46,132 --> 00:48:52,872
And that preferred is covered by, you know, the underlying Bitcoin he holds by, you know, a great ratio.

726
00:48:52,872 --> 00:48:58,612
and he will fund that dividend by either selling more equity or selling more preferred.

727
00:48:59,032 --> 00:49:04,232
And the reason that it works for his shareholder is that he's paying 10%.

728
00:49:04,232 --> 00:49:07,292
He's using the capital you give him when you buy the preferred.

729
00:49:07,512 --> 00:49:09,392
He pays you 10% on that capital.

730
00:49:09,472 --> 00:49:10,772
He invests that capital in Bitcoin.

731
00:49:11,292 --> 00:49:12,492
He's giving you 10%.

732
00:49:12,492 --> 00:49:18,092
Let's say Bitcoin goes up at 30% and that 20% spread is being captured by his shareholder.

733
00:49:18,812 --> 00:49:25,452
Now, if that spread disappears, if Bitcoin only goes up 10% and he's paying you 10%, well, then there's no value getting added.

734
00:49:25,572 --> 00:49:27,972
But if Bitcoin goes up more, he does better and vice versa.

735
00:49:27,972 --> 00:49:34,772
And I think the bet he's making is that he's quite confident the annual rate of return on Bitcoin for the next 10 or 15 years is north of 30%.

736
00:49:34,772 --> 00:49:49,558
And therefore he comfortable up until a point in selling his preferreds Now as the coverage gets lower and people get more worried about perhaps you know he won be able to sell more and he have to slow down But right now his leverage is not that high

737
00:49:49,738 --> 00:49:53,038
You know, all things being considered, he's got a huge underlying base of Bitcoin.

738
00:49:53,358 --> 00:49:56,898
And, you know, he's basically allowing a boomer who wants 10 percent.

739
00:49:57,378 --> 00:50:01,218
It's very hard if you're a boomer and you're retired to get a 10 percent yield relatively safely.

740
00:50:01,638 --> 00:50:05,378
And yet I think this is a pretty safe instrument and it'll give you a 10 percent yield.

741
00:50:05,378 --> 00:50:11,718
And so what that's doing is he's kind of recycling a lot of capital kind of backdoor into Bitcoin.

742
00:50:11,878 --> 00:50:19,798
And he's raking off the piece that that boomer, the boomer says, I'll give up the 20 percent in exchange for a guaranteed 10.

743
00:50:19,938 --> 00:50:25,798
And he's saying, great, I'll guarantee you the 10 because my equity holders really like the volatility and they want the 20.

744
00:50:25,978 --> 00:50:28,858
And so it's a model that works and it's not crazy.

745
00:50:29,518 --> 00:50:33,638
Now, you know, the big question that everyone hasn't figured out yet, and I haven't either,

746
00:50:34,178 --> 00:50:38,778
is what multiple of underlying Bitcoin, what MNAV should these things sell at?

747
00:50:39,398 --> 00:50:42,718
And, you know, we've got them selling at 0.7 times MNAV.

748
00:50:42,778 --> 00:50:46,638
And at the high of point, you know, MetaPlanet was selling at eight or nine times MNAV.

749
00:50:46,638 --> 00:50:47,998
Well, I'm pretty sure eight or nine times.

750
00:50:48,118 --> 00:50:51,338
I mean, there's value added, in my opinion, just like a bank.

751
00:50:51,538 --> 00:50:56,678
A bank sells at higher than its book value because it has capital that it can deploy to earn a return.

752
00:50:57,358 --> 00:50:59,758
And so you don't just buy into a bank at its book value.

753
00:51:00,378 --> 00:51:02,278
But strategy is kind of like a bank.

754
00:51:02,278 --> 00:51:03,838
It's just got assets and liabilities.

755
00:51:04,278 --> 00:51:10,398
And you're willing to pay something more than the underlying assets because they can use the underlying assets to generate yield.

756
00:51:11,218 --> 00:51:16,038
And so should that be a 1.2 multiple or 1.5 or 1.7 or 2.0?

757
00:51:16,298 --> 00:51:17,258
It's somewhere in there.

758
00:51:17,318 --> 00:51:20,678
It's somewhere between, in my opinion, between 1.6 and 2.1.

759
00:51:21,678 --> 00:51:26,598
You know, when all the treasury companies came out, there was a little bit of a flurry and everybody got really excited.

760
00:51:26,678 --> 00:51:28,198
and everyone thought, oh, this is great.

761
00:51:28,258 --> 00:51:29,538
They're all going to grow like crazy.

762
00:51:30,178 --> 00:51:32,478
You know, they're adding, they're selling new stock

763
00:51:32,478 --> 00:51:33,878
and adding to the Bitcoin per share

764
00:51:33,878 --> 00:51:36,518
and therefore they deserve these enormous premiums.

765
00:51:36,938 --> 00:51:39,418
And I think that myth or thought pattern

766
00:51:39,418 --> 00:51:41,598
has kind of gotten dispelled, right?

767
00:51:41,858 --> 00:51:44,818
They don't deserve to sell it four or five times MNAP,

768
00:51:44,938 --> 00:51:46,098
no matter how quickly they're growing.

769
00:51:46,638 --> 00:51:49,178
But they do deserve to sell it more than MNAP

770
00:51:49,178 --> 00:51:50,838
because of the model I described

771
00:51:50,838 --> 00:51:53,478
where they can earn more than their cost of capital.

772
00:51:53,698 --> 00:51:55,638
So it's just as simple as that.

773
00:51:55,638 --> 00:52:01,658
And in my view, the simplest way, if anyone wants to participate in that, is to participate with strategy because of the first, the biggest.

774
00:52:02,158 --> 00:52:03,298
I think Saylor is very bright.

775
00:52:03,438 --> 00:52:04,878
I think they won't do stupid stuff.

776
00:52:04,938 --> 00:52:06,058
And I think they're very well managed.

777
00:52:06,758 --> 00:52:12,898
And the way I look at my strategy holding is I think it will outperform my Bitcoin holding over time, maybe by 50%.

778
00:52:12,898 --> 00:52:16,418
And yet I still have a vast majority of my assets in Bitcoin.

779
00:52:17,238 --> 00:52:21,038
That's what I was going to ask if someone was to go on to it.

780
00:52:21,038 --> 00:52:23,018
I keep it super simple.

781
00:52:23,018 --> 00:52:31,138
larry it's just bitcoin and self-casing absolutely that that that's me but say is it like a one percent

782
00:52:31,138 --> 00:52:37,418
allocation of five or a ten percent like i guess it comes down to people's risk but what you're

783
00:52:37,418 --> 00:52:41,598
looking for and how aggressive you want to be i mean i would recommend maybe five or ten i mean

784
00:52:41,598 --> 00:52:45,078
i'll tell you i'll tell you a story that i kind of broke my heart because i just i know the guy's

785
00:52:45,078 --> 00:52:50,398
got to be hurting now you know back a while back not that far back when meta planet was soaring and

786
00:52:50,398 --> 00:52:54,998
as we recall, it was going straight up, you know, a young guy who, you know, looked at Bitcoin and

787
00:52:54,998 --> 00:52:59,678
said, well, yeah, it's returning 40% a year, but I want to make more. Right. And he tweeted out and

788
00:52:59,678 --> 00:53:03,778
he said, Hey, I'm selling all my Bitcoin to buy MetaPlanet. And I was like, you know, I did a

789
00:53:03,778 --> 00:53:07,958
head. Oh my God. Yeah. Right. And I was like, you know, and if you look at what's happened to the

790
00:53:07,958 --> 00:53:12,258
price of MetaPlanet, you know, he just, he just had a pretty rough ride. Now I think MetaPlanet

791
00:53:12,258 --> 00:53:17,678
will come back. Don't get me wrong. But, but the point is, you know, you got to be careful with

792
00:53:17,678 --> 00:53:22,578
these things so they are they are leveraged bitcoin so you know bitcoin's volatile well

793
00:53:22,578 --> 00:53:28,278
guess what leverage bitcoin's even more volatile and one of the things one of the things that that

794
00:53:28,278 --> 00:53:33,818
friday last friday taught us is that leverage is dangerous when i was reading the comments on last

795
00:53:33,818 --> 00:53:38,218
friday where you know we had this big rinse and wash i couldn't believe it that you know some of

796
00:53:38,218 --> 00:53:44,138
these brokers are still giving people 50 to 1 leverage i mean that's just yeah i mean anyone who

797
00:53:44,138 --> 00:53:49,458
trades anything on anything greater than 10 to 11 that's insane i mean if you trade you know even

798
00:53:49,458 --> 00:53:54,798
10 to 1 leverage you get a 10 move you're bankrupt i mean a 50 to 1 leverage you get a 2 move it's

799
00:53:54,798 --> 00:53:59,898
just it's just insane i don't know i don't know who's doing this stuff and you know i think you

800
00:53:59,898 --> 00:54:05,778
see this a lot where people come into bitcoin they think it's a great asset and then but but

801
00:54:05,778 --> 00:54:10,638
it's boring you know it's going up 30 40 a year maybe some years more some years less and they're

802
00:54:10,638 --> 00:54:12,438
like, well, yeah, okay, I want to get there faster.

803
00:54:13,018 --> 00:54:14,958
You know, I'm going to add leverage to it.

804
00:54:14,998 --> 00:54:17,818
Well, you know, it's a very unpredictable asset,

805
00:54:17,818 --> 00:54:20,338
and it does have significant drawdowns.

806
00:54:20,358 --> 00:54:22,098
I mean, one of the things I always caution people

807
00:54:22,098 --> 00:54:24,338
when I give out my book or I talk to them about it

808
00:54:24,338 --> 00:54:27,198
is I say, hang on a sec, before you put anything into this,

809
00:54:27,778 --> 00:54:30,038
ask yourself, if this went down 50%,

810
00:54:30,038 --> 00:54:31,458
would you be tempted to sell it?

811
00:54:31,858 --> 00:54:34,018
Or would you be thinking, no, no, no, gosh,

812
00:54:34,078 --> 00:54:35,538
this is on sale, I'm buying more.

813
00:54:36,038 --> 00:54:38,198
Because if you're thinking it's on sale, I'm buying more,

814
00:54:38,278 --> 00:54:39,618
well, then that's the right allocation.

815
00:54:39,618 --> 00:54:44,538
If you're thinking, oh, my God, I got too much in this, I got to sell it, then you're overexposed.

816
00:54:44,858 --> 00:54:50,698
So, you know, I think that's an important mindset that people have to have because, you know, it has gone down.

817
00:54:50,798 --> 00:54:53,558
I mean, the last time it's gone down as much as 70%.

818
00:54:53,558 --> 00:54:57,518
I mean, I was buying pre-Sand Bankman Freed at 60, and it went to 15.

819
00:54:57,598 --> 00:55:00,978
I didn't feel great about that, but I knew I was right, so I just hung on and it's come back.

820
00:55:01,638 --> 00:55:07,378
But the point is, and I don't think we're going to have any more 70% drawdowns, but gosh, we could easily have a 50% drawdown.

821
00:55:07,378 --> 00:55:22,418
I mean, my model says we go from 1.20, 1.12 to 2.40, and then we go from 2.40 back down to 110, you know, that we, right, that, you know, and then, and then we go from 110 to 400, you know, I mean, it's, that's the nature of the beast.

822
00:55:22,418 --> 00:55:29,178
If you look at the pattern historically, it has these big up moves, and then it retraces them, and then it has another big up move.

823
00:55:29,418 --> 00:55:33,818
And, you know, it's higher highs and higher lows, so that if you can wait five years, you're always ahead.

824
00:55:33,818 --> 00:55:58,238
But guess what? You know, that's you're not making these great returns. I mean, the price of that is volatility. And the good example of that is Amazon, the Amazon stock. I mean, it's up two hundred and twelve thousand percent from its IPO. And yet, you know, it's the leading online seller of goods and goods. And yet, you know, it had multiple fit. Well, one drawdown was 90 percent in the early days and had multiple 50 to 70 percent drawdowns.

825
00:55:58,238 --> 00:56:03,558
So it always came back, but you didn't get that great return without having volatility.

826
00:56:03,558 --> 00:56:05,778
And that's just true in investing in general.

827
00:56:06,098 --> 00:56:07,018
Yeah, I love it.

828
00:56:07,078 --> 00:56:11,698
I want to say maybe two statements to round it out.

829
00:56:11,858 --> 00:56:12,958
But same with you.

830
00:56:13,058 --> 00:56:17,038
Like when I hand the book or whatever, I'm like, the moment if you do decide to buy,

831
00:56:17,218 --> 00:56:19,318
just expect that it's going to drop.

832
00:56:19,478 --> 00:56:21,038
Just that's what's going to happen.

833
00:56:21,038 --> 00:56:23,138
It's going to go up until you buy.

834
00:56:23,498 --> 00:56:25,938
And then you're going to be like, oh, what have I done?

835
00:56:26,578 --> 00:56:27,718
Pretty much guaranteed.

836
00:56:27,718 --> 00:56:36,958
And then the second thing is just a mindset that I have on any given day for any reason, I expect a negative 36% drawdown.

837
00:56:37,118 --> 00:56:39,078
Like we've had so many in Bitcoin's history.

838
00:56:39,458 --> 00:56:42,818
So like over the weekend, 10% down, I'm like, cool.

839
00:56:42,998 --> 00:56:48,678
Obviously, the numbers are bigger and stuff, but you're like, whatever, this is just another day.

840
00:56:48,938 --> 00:56:51,158
This one was a little tough and a little bit of a gut check.

841
00:56:51,258 --> 00:56:56,998
I mean, even for guys like me, I mean, as you recall, I think it was last week we hit a new all-time high of 126, didn't we?

842
00:56:56,998 --> 00:56:57,758
Yeah, that's right.

843
00:56:58,398 --> 00:57:01,118
It's not that often that you get a breakout to a new all-time high

844
00:57:01,118 --> 00:57:03,518
and then, bam, a week later, kicked in the teeth.

845
00:57:03,938 --> 00:57:05,158
Yeah, 20K down.

846
00:57:05,578 --> 00:57:06,778
Yeah, I mean, it's like, whoa.

847
00:57:06,798 --> 00:57:07,638
That's your God candle.

848
00:57:08,318 --> 00:57:10,278
Yeah, exactly in the wrong direction.

849
00:57:10,278 --> 00:57:14,378
But, you know, I mean, that is just the nature of this beast.

850
00:57:14,618 --> 00:57:18,618
And those of us who've been in it since 2017, or I started in 2013, 14,

851
00:57:18,678 --> 00:57:20,318
I didn't really get serious until 2017.

852
00:57:21,278 --> 00:57:23,698
You know, I've just come to accept that.

853
00:57:23,698 --> 00:57:27,698
I mean, I just, you know, I mean, I bet you find this hard to believe.

854
00:57:27,778 --> 00:57:29,358
A lot of days I just don't even look at the price.

855
00:57:29,498 --> 00:57:30,458
I'm just like, you know, whatever.

856
00:57:30,758 --> 00:57:33,978
I mean, it's just not something I care about.

857
00:57:34,458 --> 00:57:47,038
And I guess last thing, to your point where you're saying, like, self-custody, maybe for someone that's around your age, it can be a little bit harder or something unless you have somebody hold your hand.

858
00:57:47,158 --> 00:57:52,858
I don't know if you know Tony Yazbek from the Bitcoin way, and they help people to be able to learn.

859
00:57:52,858 --> 00:57:55,018
And there are a lot of people.

860
00:57:55,218 --> 00:57:56,198
I mean, you do it.

861
00:57:56,418 --> 00:57:57,338
Unchained does it.

862
00:57:57,518 --> 00:58:00,078
I mean, BTC Sessions has great videos on it.

863
00:58:00,778 --> 00:58:02,678
You know, I've done it with a lot of my clients.

864
00:58:02,798 --> 00:58:04,898
I mean, I have a lot of GoldCover clients, right?

865
00:58:04,938 --> 00:58:05,978
And they've gotten into Bitcoin.

866
00:58:06,098 --> 00:58:07,458
They're like, well, how do I do self-custody?

867
00:58:07,458 --> 00:58:10,058
And so, you know, I mean, I like Trezor.

868
00:58:10,158 --> 00:58:12,158
I said, you go buy a Model T from Trezor.

869
00:58:13,118 --> 00:58:14,278
And, you know, I'll do a Zoom call.

870
00:58:14,298 --> 00:58:15,778
I don't like Trezor, but HCR, right?

871
00:58:16,538 --> 00:58:16,858
Yeah.

872
00:58:17,138 --> 00:58:19,438
Yeah, and I walk them through how to do it.

873
00:58:19,518 --> 00:58:21,518
And I mean, and it's scary at first.

874
00:58:21,518 --> 00:58:24,478
I mean, and, you know, it's not a simple process.

875
00:58:24,758 --> 00:58:29,618
And, you know, I set it up, put $100 on it, wipe it out, you know, restore it.

876
00:58:29,778 --> 00:58:30,658
I mean, you got to do that.

877
00:58:31,078 --> 00:58:35,498
It's like when you send your first crypto transaction, you're kind of like, oh, my God, did I just lose that money?

878
00:58:35,858 --> 00:58:36,818
Send a little bit.

879
00:58:37,358 --> 00:58:39,138
You send a little bit and you test it.

880
00:58:39,238 --> 00:58:41,458
And, you know, anyone can do it.

881
00:58:41,878 --> 00:58:48,918
But you do have to, you know, go slowly, you know, start out with test small amounts and do it over and over again.

882
00:58:48,918 --> 00:58:54,598
And eventually you'll realize, you know what, this is very achievable and doable and manageable and not that risky.

883
00:58:54,598 --> 00:58:59,378
I was talking to somebody the other day and I said exactly that.

884
00:58:59,478 --> 00:59:02,158
You just need to delete it, restore it, delete it, restore it.

885
00:59:02,178 --> 00:59:03,458
He's like, how many times?

886
00:59:03,558 --> 00:59:10,878
I'm like, until you get absolutely sick of it and then keep doing it until you just can do it in your sleep.

887
00:59:11,038 --> 00:59:12,778
He's like, all right, that's a lot of times.

888
00:59:12,958 --> 00:59:14,978
I'm like, yeah, you'll be thankful for it.

889
00:59:14,978 --> 00:59:20,478
yeah and the other thing is you know do it every three to six months too because you might get the

890
00:59:20,478 --> 00:59:25,798
process you know what i mean and so yeah do it every and and i by the way i you know my hard

891
00:59:25,798 --> 00:59:30,358
wallets i mean i always erase my hard wallets i mean i never i never leave a treasure around with

892
00:59:30,358 --> 00:59:35,398
all the stuff let loaded into it so that somebody could hold it hey transfer this money i mean i

893
00:59:35,398 --> 00:59:42,658
you know whenever whenever i start to think about moving in a coin i go back and re re input the 12

894
00:59:42,658 --> 00:59:48,338
words you know and start start at scratch yeah i think it's something that great power comes great

895
00:59:48,338 --> 00:59:54,978
responsibility you need oh that is right yeah it is scary and it's you know it's not for everybody

896
00:59:54,978 --> 00:59:58,558
i mean there's some people who'd say well i just don't want to take that risk and you know i'm

897
00:59:58,558 --> 01:00:02,138
gonna i'm gonna send mine to fidelity or i'm gonna send it to unchained or whatever it might be and

898
01:00:02,138 --> 01:00:08,138
that's fine i mean i think i could probably be fine no it's yeah yeah we hope so i mean it's i

899
01:00:08,138 --> 01:00:18,658
I'll tell you what, if we get the wrong kind of government in place, there's going to be a wave of people swarming the folks that say, help me do self-custody now.

900
01:00:20,178 --> 01:00:26,818
But I think we'll see, you know, if we're going, I mean, these things don't happen instantly without some warning.

901
01:00:26,978 --> 01:00:31,398
So I think if things are going in a bad direction, I think we'll all see that.

902
01:00:31,398 --> 01:00:39,538
I mean, I've got several clients who are very much aware of that risk, who have their money on, you know, in an ETF or on an exchange or with somebody like a river.

903
01:00:40,458 --> 01:00:46,878
And, you know, they say their view is kind of like, well, you tell me if you think the risk is coming and I'll get into the self-custody thing.

904
01:00:46,938 --> 01:00:48,358
But right now I don't want to mess with it.

905
01:00:48,418 --> 01:00:49,978
I'm like, OK, fair enough.

906
01:00:50,218 --> 01:00:51,498
At least they're exposed to Bitcoin.

907
01:00:51,618 --> 01:00:52,698
And that's the first start.

908
01:00:52,938 --> 01:01:01,118
Lawrence, I just want to hand the microphone over to you if there's a question that I didn't ask or a topic that you think is important to bring up and round out the show.

909
01:01:01,398 --> 01:01:17,318
Yeah, no, not really. I'm trying to think what else have we been talking about of late that's important. Look, I think it's a difficult and tricky time. I think the one thing that most people, a lot of people are really missing is, quote unquote, the inflation risk.

910
01:01:17,318 --> 01:01:19,178
COVID was not a one-off.

911
01:01:19,318 --> 01:01:20,738
2008 was not a one-off.

912
01:01:20,838 --> 01:01:21,898
They're coming more rapidly.

913
01:01:22,318 --> 01:01:24,078
They're larger with each one.

914
01:01:24,598 --> 01:01:25,658
There's another one coming.

915
01:01:25,838 --> 01:01:27,738
I call it the big print, the name of the book.

916
01:01:28,838 --> 01:01:29,398
And right.

917
01:01:29,538 --> 01:01:35,398
And as a result of that, you know, one has to protect oneself from inflation.

918
01:01:35,398 --> 01:01:40,678
I think there's going to be an enormous, enormous wealth transfer here, Sean.

919
01:01:40,818 --> 01:01:45,418
And in five or 10 years, you're going to know who owns sound money and who did not.

920
01:01:45,418 --> 01:01:53,638
And the people who own sound money, gold, silver, Bitcoin, are going to be incredibly advantaged financially versus those who do not, did not.

921
01:01:53,778 --> 01:01:57,098
I mean, you know, go study some of these hyperinflations, how they happen.

922
01:01:57,238 --> 01:02:01,458
And, you know, people who are rich and had all their money in bonds, they kind of get wiped out.

923
01:02:01,858 --> 01:02:10,018
And people who were average and had their money in gold, you know, they became really rich in local currency terms.

924
01:02:10,178 --> 01:02:11,738
And so I think that's going to happen.

925
01:02:12,138 --> 01:02:14,118
I really, really think that's going to happen.

926
01:02:14,118 --> 01:02:24,898
And I really high level of confidence in that. And that's and that's why I wrote the book, because I don't think, you know, if you just get that basic principle right, you don't have to be a financial genius.

927
01:02:25,338 --> 01:02:29,138
You know, you don't have to pick stocks. You don't have to worry about this stuff all along.

928
01:02:29,678 --> 01:02:36,418
You know, you just have to kind of understand the basics and focus on the basics and and save in sound money.

929
01:02:37,078 --> 01:02:41,078
And, you know, you'll be benefited from that. I mean, there are great stories in America.

930
01:02:41,078 --> 01:02:44,958
There's one story I really love of a guy who was a World War II veteran.

931
01:02:45,138 --> 01:02:48,298
He fought in the Pacific, and he was from L.A., and he came back,

932
01:02:48,338 --> 01:02:52,298
and he went to work in the machine tool shops of the aeronautics industry,

933
01:02:52,418 --> 01:02:55,818
which is all around L.A. as they built all the airplanes.

934
01:02:56,938 --> 01:03:01,738
And so he probably never made more than a highly skilled machinist salary,

935
01:03:01,778 --> 01:03:04,438
which is a good salary, but not, you know, wealthy doing that.

936
01:03:04,698 --> 01:03:07,638
But what he did, he understood the issue of sound money,

937
01:03:07,718 --> 01:03:09,678
and so he saved in coins, gold coins.

938
01:03:09,678 --> 01:03:12,358
So he was buying throughout all the 40s, 50s, and 60s.

939
01:03:12,758 --> 01:03:14,238
He was buying gold coins at $35.

940
01:03:14,718 --> 01:03:17,758
And he kept buying them in the 70s and the 80s rolled around.

941
01:03:17,838 --> 01:03:18,618
The price got higher.

942
01:03:18,818 --> 01:03:21,118
And then he passed somewhere in the mid-80s.

943
01:03:21,158 --> 01:03:21,938
It was a great story.

944
01:03:22,018 --> 01:03:23,458
And his kids never knew he was doing this.

945
01:03:23,498 --> 01:03:24,658
He lived in a modest house.

946
01:03:25,118 --> 01:03:28,418
And they went out in the garage and he had all these old ammo boxes out there.

947
01:03:28,578 --> 01:03:31,558
And it turns out, and this was back when gold was at the time.

948
01:03:31,598 --> 01:03:32,718
I think it was only $500 or $600.

949
01:03:33,258 --> 01:03:35,478
It turns out the guy had $8 million worth of gold.

950
01:03:35,478 --> 01:03:40,718
So here's a guy who basically spent his life saving in a sound currency.

951
01:03:41,658 --> 01:03:45,258
And, you know, the sound currency got, you know, the other currencies got debased.

952
01:03:45,398 --> 01:03:47,178
And it turns out he was quite a wealthy man.

953
01:03:47,418 --> 01:03:50,198
And so that story is going to be repeated.

954
01:03:50,998 --> 01:03:55,118
There are going to be people who had just a modest amount of Bitcoin or a modest amount of gold.

955
01:03:55,698 --> 01:04:02,738
And they're going to, you know, be kind of surprised at how wealthy they become as a result of the failure of the fiat currencies.

956
01:04:02,738 --> 01:04:12,678
And so, you know, I think, you know, we all have to do that and not in a greedy way, more in a just protect yourself way, you know, guarantee your family's future.

957
01:04:12,938 --> 01:04:18,378
And I also think, you know, this is probably going to take 10 more years to play out or 2025.

958
01:04:19,478 --> 01:04:24,718
You know, I think we probably see the failure of fiat in the early 2030s.

959
01:04:24,878 --> 01:04:28,598
That's kind of that matches my fourth turning model.

960
01:04:28,598 --> 01:04:33,918
I mean, the fourth turning this time, in my view, is about money, and it started at 2008.

961
01:04:34,578 --> 01:04:36,438
And these things tend to last 20 to 30 years.

962
01:04:36,498 --> 01:04:40,038
So that puts the end point at 2028 to 2038.

963
01:04:40,238 --> 01:04:41,618
I don't think we'll make it to 2038.

964
01:04:41,698 --> 01:04:42,898
I think it'll fail before then.

965
01:04:43,298 --> 01:04:50,118
So my sense is in the early 2030s, we will have had currency failure and we will be on a sound money standard.

966
01:04:50,998 --> 01:04:54,818
And like I say, I think it's just going to blow people's minds.

967
01:04:54,818 --> 01:05:03,318
I mean, it'll be as if you were smart enough to buy Microsoft in the earlier days or buy Amazon in the earlier days or whatever it might be.

968
01:05:03,418 --> 01:05:06,658
I mean, you'll make just huge multiples of your money.

969
01:05:06,758 --> 01:05:07,998
It'd be like, how the hell did that happen?

970
01:05:08,218 --> 01:05:10,298
Imagine Bitcoin at $2, $3, $4 million.

971
01:05:10,518 --> 01:05:12,278
Imagine Bitcoin at $20 million a coin.

972
01:05:12,318 --> 01:05:13,358
It's entirely possible.

973
01:05:14,098 --> 01:05:20,438
Now, at that level, gasoline will be $100, but you'll still be way ahead of everyone who didn't have any Bitcoin.

974
01:05:20,438 --> 01:05:25,718
I think on that note I literally ladies and gentlemen I cannot encourage you to read this

975
01:05:25,718 --> 01:05:32,258
book enough it's um it's truly amazing you can get it off Amazon like I live in Australia the

976
01:05:32,258 --> 01:05:37,978
shipping slow and it will still be shipped down like two to three days it's um it's really good

977
01:05:37,978 --> 01:05:42,538
it's one book third and a half hours I promise you I guarantee it will change your life for the

978
01:05:42,538 --> 01:05:48,398
person you I hope they read it I wrote it I wrote it to help average people and I hope it's so

979
01:05:48,398 --> 01:05:52,598
accessible. Yeah, I hope they enjoy it. I try to keep the language simple. So

980
01:05:52,598 --> 01:05:57,758
no, it's really amazing. From the bottom of my heart, Lawrence, thank you so much for

981
01:05:57,758 --> 01:06:03,318
everything you do. I love being on your show. And I love what you're doing. And I really appreciate

982
01:06:03,318 --> 01:06:07,298
all your support. It means a lot. It means a lot to me to fix the money, fix the world,

983
01:06:07,558 --> 01:06:11,858
ladies and gentlemen. We will. We will. For everyone out there, if you haven't already hit

984
01:06:11,858 --> 01:06:16,158
subscribe if we vibe and then please do something nice for yourself today for somebody else out

985
01:06:16,158 --> 01:06:17,618
there. Be blessed. Peace.