What happens then is we have an immediate candle.
Samson likes it all for.
We have a multi-million dollar Bitcoin.
We have a 10x jump overnight because we've now reached the saturation point
where there's no longer any Bitcoin available to buy
because everyone holding it doesn't want to sell it.
And I can't tell you how many conversations I've had with OG Bitcoiners
who are sitting on hundreds of thousands of coins.
And then there's a 1% chance that we find someone who runs a central bank,
has access to a money printer and can hold the fingers down until they bleed and just buy Bitcoin
and set a new price at a million dollars. And so I think it's not a matter of if it happens,
I think it's a matter of when and we might be a whole lot closer to that situation than where we
were previously. What's up guys, before we get started, I've realized that over 50,000 of you
guys keep coming back for every single episode. And while I'm eternally grateful for you guys to
keep coming back. I've realized that 79% of you guys are not subscribed. So I have one small ask
before we get started. If you guys could hit that subscribe button and hit that like button to help
send this interview and many more to the stratosphere, it would be greatly appreciated.
All right, enough from me. Let's get into the show. Bing bong. We are back with another edition
of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, recurring guest,
Peter Dunworth. But Peter, man, do we have some bullish news to say the very least.
But the interesting thing with all of this bullish news, all of these new Bitcoin treasury
companies coming on, we aren't seeing the skyrockets in flight. We aren't seeing the
rocket ship take off yet. So is it just a matter of time here, Peter? Or is there something little
fishy going on here where we're seeing some whales sell off, maybe some collusion to keep
the price down so people can scoop up as much corn as possible what do you think is going on and
yeah man welcome to the show it's good to be with you i uh i kind of think it's a choose your own
adventure when you look at what's going on right now you can buy into the paper you know paper
bitcoin myth that oh there's paper being sold and this is why we've got the price price suppression
you look at the on-chain analytics and the 80 000 coins to get hoovered up in a weekend and
it doesn't drop more than 6% is a big, big deal.
I can't help but think that that would be OTC Desk
putting together that order for Saylor on 21,000 coins
from his recent announcement.
But this, I think, is a beautiful market right now
is that we understand what all of these things mean.
I think the Bitcoin treasury companies knew this cycle
and we've seen a whole host of copycats spring up.
But I look at this and think,
This, what we're seeing right now is signs of a maturing asset class where volume is starting to get much, much bigger.
And the important thing about this is this invites much bigger players into this space.
And to absorb 80,000 coins in the space of a week or a few days, I think is probably the most important news that we've got.
because if you look at the major capital allocators globally,
they're not interested in pursuing opportunities
that they can get into.
What they're really concerned about
is getting out of the opportunity when they don't like it.
And so seeing 80,000 Bitcoins just bought up in a few days
is very, very bullish for opening up that next wave of capital,
the much larger wave of capital to come to Bitcoin.
So although it might not look like at the moment
with bullish price action,
I think it lays the foundation for some significant bullish price action and buyers to start entering the market.
Yeah, it's interesting you're saying all this because, you know, the narrative is that, you know, there's going to be diminished returns over time.
But I mean, I just, I, for some reason, just can't buy into that narrative.
And a big part of it is just the amount of Bitcoin you're seeing on exchanges.
And you mentioned OTC desks as well.
I mean, these big dogs, they got to go somewhere, right?
They're not just logging into a Coinbase account and buying these.
And we're seeing that rapidly get taken off.
And these guys, they're not selling.
So do you believe in that narrative of the diminished returns?
Or do you think we're going to have something where we get a little bit wonky here in the next year or so?
I think we can see diminished returns per se, but then that's going to break.
And if you look at the logical conclusion to how, say, a lot of those Bitcoin maxis operate and how they run their personal lives, if you look at how the reason for being for these Bitcoin treasury companies, you can't help but follow out the extension of the logical conclusion of all of the intersection in years down the track is that no one is going to want to sell Bitcoin.
So what happens then? What happens then is we have an Omega candle, as Samson likes to talk about, or we have a multimillion dollar Bitcoin.
We have a 10x jump overnight because we've now reached the saturation point where there's no longer any Bitcoin available to buy because everyone holding it doesn't want to sell it.
And that ushers in a whole new period of, I think, human civilization and monetization of Bitcoin.
So obviously there'll always be a price that someone's willing to pay.
But you look at these treasury companies, they've already told you they're going to buy Bitcoin until they're blue in the face or till their eyes bleed.
And they're never going to sell it.
And the second they sell their Bitcoin is the second they no longer become a Bitcoin treasury company.
And the entire, you know, their entire investor base starts selling their stock.
So they're a captive audience for that.
And I think there's going to be downstream effects on that that has to place upward pressure, like an exponential pressure on a digitally scarce asset in Bitcoin.
Well, I think it's unique, too, because we've had essentially Saylor, you know, kind of leading the charge.
And it seems like he keeps finding out new ways to buy more Bitcoin and issue more debt.
I mean, he just offered this new offering, the STRC, where now they're buying 21,021 Bitcoin.
Obviously, there's some symbolism in there.
But it seems like everywhere you turn, no matter what with these treasury companies,
Saylor's leading the charge, and he's opening up the playbook and doing it all,
and in fact, trying to bring others under his arm to mentor.
Now with this blowing up, would that be catastrophic if we had some of these smaller players?
I'm not saying that MicroStrategy or Strategy B now it's called is going to blow up, but
is there any, I guess, negative effect of all of these treasury companies coming on
seemingly at the same time?
Look, I think proceed with caution with that.
Obviously, it feels like the flavor of the month that everyone's getting involved in
these treasury companies and there have been some really outstanding performances in these treasury
companies that just blow the absolute absolute socks off um bitcoin's returns and you know
they're leveraging bitcoin but i think it's a double-edged sword i think for the most part
it's a good thing we're lucky in that i think we've got a good faith actor in michael saylor
who accounts for 95% of the entire market.
And so, you know, you look at, say, number two or number three is MetaPlanet
and, you know, they've got a total of 20,000 coins or just under
and sailors bought that literally in one week.
So there are just scales of this that are immensely different.
And given that we've got, I think, the two leading treasury companies
in MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet being good faith actors
and wanting the best for Bitcoin,
I think we're in pretty safe hands.
Yes, there's going to be a whole host of copycats,
which I don't think are going to be as successful as those two.
But I think it's, you know, choose what level of risk you're willing to take
if you do dabble in that.
I think we've seen over the last few years,
Saylor has proved himself in every facet with every challenge
that's been presented with him or to him in Bitcoin.
And I think Simon and Dylan at MetaPlanet have held themselves impeccably,
particularly with some interesting or curious things that they've had to face
and they've been nothing but transparent to the market yeah they really have and and i think that
all of these you know new ceos kind of coming in are trying to trying to take note of that um and
you know especially sailor being you know sailor and he's tweeting out basically every single monday
it seems that they're buying bitcoin uh the transparency is very unique in this bitcoin space
Now, obviously, you've got some experience in the traditional financial realm.
Do you think that these treasury companies, I believe there's like 160 now publicly traded companies worldwide, at least as of this recording today.
There's a seemingly new one popping up every single day, but 160 right now.
Are all of these making enough noise where traditional finance is starting to see, hey, you know what?
sailors starting to tap into that $300 trillion global bond market. And there's all these other
products coming up where they're starting to, I guess, quote unquote, financialize Bitcoin,
or maybe Bitcoinize financial products in a sense, where now traditional finance is now
really starting to take this serious? I think there's a lot with that question. And I think
if I struck that down into two parts, we are seeing the Bitcoinization of the financial world
through these Bitcoin treasury companies. And at the same time, there is a risk attached to it.
It's not all a free kick. There's a serious amount of risk attached to this. And I'll just
highlight the example of this with GameStop. GameStop is effectively a zombie company sitting
on a pile of cash that announced to the market they're going to become a Bitcoin treasury company.
now they failed to follow through on that and disappointed the market enormously because they
said i will buy a little bit bit of bitcoin and they've left the majority of that cash sitting in
cash now for a treasury company to succeed they need to be 100 committed to the strategy you can't
run an alternate business and hope to have a bitcoin treasury company on the side
I'm not sure if you've heard the story of the pig and the chicken when it comes to breakfast.
No, I haven't.
So the pig and the chicken, these Bitcoin treasury companies want to have their cake and eat it too.
The new companies that are sort of trying the Bitcoin treasury strategy.
And the problem is, is that you cannot be serious about being a treasury company.
You have to be committed.
And back to the breakfast, you know, when we talk about the chicken and the pig, the chicken's serious about breakfast because that's its egg on the table.
But the pig's committed because it's his ass on your breakfast plate.
And if you're going to pursue these Bitcoin treasury strategies, there's no half measures available to you in this.
If you do a half measure in the treasury companies, you'll get, sounds like I'm in a ghetto.
So, yeah, if you do do the half measures with the treasury companies,
the market will punish you for not being aggressive enough.
So you have to jump in with two feet.
You have to be the pig on the plate.
You cannot just be half committed to this strategy
because the market will absolutely punish you.
And so that's where I think with so many options in place,
it's hard to know who is serious and who is committed.
So I think it warrants a huge amount of work to get comfortable with that
because I think there are a lot of companies who will have a false start with it,
and then they'll get scared by the volatility,
and they'll step back from that strategy altogether.
So do you think that GameStop, in a sense, almost regrets
kind of going through with this Bitcoin strategy
just because they weren't all in?
Because, I mean, GameStop had this, I guess,
the short squeeze that everybody remembers back from the Cerveza sickness days
just five years ago.
And then now we have them not really going all in on Bitcoin, even though Ryan Cohen was pictured, it was rumored for a long time.
It seemed like this would be almost a perfect marriage, putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
But like you said, they didn't necessarily go all in.
So do you think that it's almost like a regret for some of these companies that don't jump with two feet in?
I think absolutely.
Look at the share price since they've done it.
It's been disappointing, to say the least.
And there was a huge hoopla made about this strategy that they were looking to implement.
Ryan spoke at the Las Vegas conference this year for the Bitcoin magazine conference.
And the expectation was this was going to be the start of a strategy that would not only invest all of their cash into Bitcoin, it would then start creating the debt instruments for it.
And back to one of the things that we didn't cover earlier with these 160 Treasury companies come to place.
The bond market, although it's the biggest market in the world, there's $300 trillion of liquidity there.
They're probably the most astute investors in the world.
They're not going to want to have the second, third, fourth best issuance of this debt across a number of different companies.
I think there's going to be market leaders in each jurisdiction and there's maybe going to be room for three or four in total.
And I could be completely wrong, but it looks that way to me that there'll be the winners and the losers.
The winners can issue as much debt as they see fit and the losers will basically tend to zero and we'll have a consolidation.
So we're just in that Cambrian explosion phase of market movements where everything is possible.
and we'll have a consolidation and the realization that there are winners and losers and
now there'll be a select few winners now so are you saying basically mstr microstrategy because
it's the big dog that it like you know coming in second place is essentially you know the
consolidation like nobody's going to ever catch them i i don't think so i think this is very much
like Zeno's paradox, the, I guess, the thought experiment that if you move 50% closer to your
target, how close are you? You know, when do you reach the, when do you reach the wall? And the fact
is you never reach the wall. And so in this, in this line of thinking, micro strategy represents
the wall. And, you know, the, all these in, all these Bitcoin treasury companies starting, they get
50% closer to the wall in their first step. Then they get 50% again, and they're 75% of the way
there. They're going to get closer and closer to micro strategy. I just don't think they can ever
be toppled because they've got such a huge lead. And the other thing is that they're forging a
whole host of new markets and breaking that open for everyone else. But there's a level of maturity
that these companies need to reach in order to do that for themselves. Just because Saylor did it
doesn't mean that a company that's a year old can go to the debt markets and say, hey, let's do this.
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proven they're not gonna no debt market participant is really going to provide any amount of liquidity
or capital to that type of investment and so they need to have michael's had five years at this
nearly literally next month he's been at this for five years so he's got a demonstrable track record
of five years of buying bitcoin and telling the market exactly what he'll do and being 100%
straight and honest with them so when he goes to the bond market there's 300 trillion there and he
tells them something they're going to believe it but if a johnny come lately comes along and tries
to do that same thing as well just because oh well he did it we can do it no there a 50 billion dollar balance sheet or more there what is it It probably close to a billion balance sheet now or net asset value on that balance sheet
And he's got a five-year track record
of being impeccable with his work.
Those things matter.
Now, what about these different markets, right?
Because obviously we have the US,
which is the biggest global market there is,
but it seems like there's going to be potentially
like a leader, like you said, like MetaPlanet, right?
I mean, Japan is very interesting when it comes to, it's just connection to the United States in general. And Saylor said something interesting in one of his talks that he was not worried that, you know, MetaPlanet might catch them, but the Japanese debt market is so big that, you know, somebody in the bond market, these bond investors, they're just have zero faith in the bonds because they have negative interest rates that, you know, they're looking for something like a MetaPlanet.
And so he's going to be able to potentially catch them.
Do you see that as a scenario just because of the uniqueness of the Japanese market?
Look, there's a lot of things I really like about MetaPlanet.
The first is that it's a vassal state.
Japan's a vassal state of the US.
So by default, you get a lot of the property protections of investing in the US by investing in Japan, which I think is very different to the rest of Asia.
But the other thing that I think is really important is that it has a very different setup from the US.
And that would be, and I'd probably have to check with others on this, but my expectation would be that that is the biggest euro dollar market on earth with the lowest interest rate.
So when you pair those two things together, that is a huge, huge opportunity for the Japanese market and any Bitcoin treasury company in that market.
because when you pair low interest rates, ultra low interest rates of circa half to 1%
with the ability to get a return on your capital such that Bitcoin represents
when you package it up into a bond or a convertible note,
there is a huge arbitrage that makes Japan and the Bitcoin treasury companies in Japan
much more appealing than treasury companies in the US.
And just looking at this in really rough numbers,
last time I checked
Simon was talking about issuing
the potential of issuing bonds at a
4-5% rate
versus
MicroStrategy which was issuing
at a 10% rate. Well straight off
the bat that allows them to buy double the amount
of, or that allows them to afford
double the amount of debt
for the same purchase, for the
same amount of interest expense
so I look at that and think they're
extremely well placed relative to
everyone else on earth for those few unique characteristics of their market.
All right. Yeah. I mean, I definitely think that that's,
that's going to be something that unique to, to watch into. And it's always been,
you know, something that I think is very curious with all of this.
So it's just the interaction of the different markets,
but I want to get into retail. The narrative right now is that retail isn't here,
But on the flip side of things, everybody's reporting how much the ETFs are buying.
And the assumption is it's institutional investors.
But these reports that have come out say like 70% to 80% of ETF buying is from retail.
And these institutional buyers aren't here.
So from getting your ear to the street, which one do you think it is?
Do you believe the narrative that retail isn't here?
Or do you think it's more institutions are just having a select few that are really buying?
I think it's probably a combination of both.
I think the notion retail's not here comes from that old homage to the Google searchers,
that basically no one's searching for Bitcoin, so where is everyone?
I think there is an opaqueness with the institutional market money,
and those ETFs do a very good job of hiding where that money comes from.
We really just rely on BlackRock and Fidelity to tell us what's happening.
To me, the most interesting thing about that, which I think is a huge step forward for us,
and it's a wonderful thing to see because this is something I've been wanting to see for a number of years now,
is we have just recently the SEC came out and said that the ETFs can make in-kind deposits and redemptions.
So I look at this and think that is an enormous, enormous opportunity for Bitcoin.
Now, all of a sudden, this may seem unpopular, don't shoot the messenger, but there's going to be a whole host of OG Bitcoiners who no longer want to self-custody their Bitcoin.
Or they want to access traditional financial markets.
They don't want to have a capital gains tax paid on transferring it to get the same exposure, but want it custodied and want some relief for that self-custody that they've been doing.
I look at this and think this is going to bring about a whole host of opportunities for Bitcoiners who are holding it.
There's going to be a whole host of financial products that are built around that.
This, to me, represents one step closer to the banks being able to custody Bitcoin.
You had the SEC laid down the foundation that they said they could custody it.
This is one step closer to it.
And we're going to start seeing a whole host of products, financial products built on the back of it,
which there's probably no bigger advocate for not your keys,
not your coins than myself.
We have a business running self-custody
and helping clients all over the globe with self-custody.
But at the same time, you've got to meet people where they are.
And a lot of people aren't ready for self-custody.
But this is a way to get the rest of the population
into the wonderful benefits of Bitcoin.
And then they will, through their own endeavors,
go down the rabbit hole to find out why they want to be self-custody.
So I look at this as just another top of funnel adoption mechanism for Bitcoin into the mainstream.
Now, why do you think the in-kind is so big?
Do you just think it's more of just the OGs trying to access, whether it's traditional loans or something else?
Because that is interesting.
I do think it's big, but I wasn't really thinking the OGs were going to come back.
So I'm curious on that point.
And why do you think the OGs are looking to get into these more financial-based products?
I think for a number of reasons.
Firstly, if you look at the interest rate differential on loans for those type of facilities versus something else,
I know globally there are lenders who can give you a sub-5% loan on that type of facility,
whereas the best I've seen in Bitcoin terms has been, say, single digits, just under single digit interest rates on loan products.
So for one, that's an immediate benefit.
But probably the bigger, more intangible benefit, although there is a tangible element to this, is that it legitimizes the Bitcoiners' wealth.
I can't tell you how many conversations I've had with OG Bitcoiners who are sitting on hundreds, if not thousands of coins,
and they don't have any way of monetizing their Bitcoin
in a legitimate fashion or they're scared to.
This allows them to transfer without any capital gains tax
to a financial institution their Bitcoin
and legitimately finance that in a way that they might want to
buy a car, buy a home, pay the kids' school fees,
whatever it might be, but it's a way of monetizing that Bitcoin
that they otherwise haven't had.
and it's a double-edged sword because you know we want to have less and less bitcoin
so uh custody by the major institutions but there are some benefits on a personal level that people
will want to take advantage of yeah and it's interesting too because the ibit etf i don't
know if you saw this but the sec just improved 10xing the limit from 25 000 to 20 250 000
contracts so it'll allow everybody to to you know take on much more exposure obviously 10x the
exposure now do you normally see moves like this when it comes to you know traditional financial
products or like etfs or is this like is everything that we're just seeing here with the bitcoin etfs
just unheard of i just think we're in new ground we bitcoin etfs at this point in time that that
is unusual to have a product that's less than 18 months old have its limits increased by 10x that
that is very rare i'd love to see the stats on how many companies financial instruments have actually
had that approved and i think you'd be able to count them on one hand but i just look at that
is really a function of the success of bitcoin and the etf this has been the best best most
a successful launch for BlackRock.
It's the biggest ETF or the fastest growing ETF
they've ever had.
The crowd has spoken.
They want this.
And this is why I think the SEC is under this administration,
the US is acting more to deliver what the people want.
And, you know, 25,000 units in that contract were not enough.
So it's now 250,000.
So the leverage on Bitcoin in these options can just get,
could be so much higher.
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yeah and i mean it's interesting right because um you know i i don't think that traditional
finance has just gotten to the point to realize just about this overall digital scarcity and
scarcity just in general of bitcoin and i don't know if a lot of bitcoiners truly understand it
as well uh just because you know we had jack mallers go on and on cnbc as he does or you know
one of the traditional media outlets today say, Hey, you know what, you know, I'm going to still
be buying at 120, 130, 140, 150. There's not a price that I won't be buying Bitcoin. And I just
see all of this Bitcoin getting taken off exchanges and getting moving into hands, the ETFs increasing
all of this buying pressure. You know, we did see that short squeeze with GameStop, which we talked
about a little bit earlier. Like, do you see there being a potential of that here with, with Bitcoin,
just the way that we're seeing the amount of buying pressure?
Or are you more along the line with your fellow Aussie,
Checkmatey, who thinks we're going to get that slow grind up
to that $1 million?
It's hard to argue with Checkmatey because he's just clinical
in his analysis.
So I think I'll put a foot in both camps to disappoint you.
If I look at it, I think, and this is Check to a T,
I think he'll be right 99% of the time.
We're going to get a slow grind to $1 million.
And then there's a 1% chance that we find someone who runs a central bank, has access to a money printer and can hold the fingers down till they bleed and just buy Bitcoin and set a new price at a million dollars.
And I know if I had that opportunity for the Australian or the Reserve Bank in Australia, I'd just go into the Treasury and I would literally buy.
I'd sit first I'd set up accounts all over the globe with every single exchange I could possibly
find and then I would just start buying whether it's a million dollars a minute or ten million
dollars a minute it wouldn't matter but I would literally just buy until there was no more
bitcoin sitting on exchange and then the price would be whatever it is but the buy order would
be in and it'd be a million dollars a minute or a million dollars every every 10 seconds and
those buyers would just keep going until liquidity dried up or we found ourselves at a million dollars
of coin. Yeah. And I mean, it's interesting because like all of this is kind of coming on
to the scene right now. And everybody's talking about all of the Bitcoin being scooped up by
these treasury companies. And tomorrow we actually have the US going into their strategic reserve
and kind of breaking it all down, how much Bitcoin they'd actually had. There's been speculation that
the U.S. sold it off. Somebody found a wallet seized by the U.S. Marshals that only had 28,000
instead of the 200,000. Obviously, this has all been kind of some speculation here,
but I think it's kind of a unique twist here that we've had Bo Hines even say,
hey, you know what? We don't have to report the buying and we don't have to be as open as Michael
Saylor has been. So I'm kind of of the opinion, maybe, you know, I'll look dumb after this episode
comes out because they're not doing it tomorrow. But I think that there's a slight chance that
they've been buying kind of behind closed doors. Maybe they'll announce it tomorrow. I'm not sure,
but I know that they're definitely like looking into it, right? They have all these Bitcoin bulls
on the US government. Now, do you think that that is coming soon? Or do you think that,
you know, that because of the way that governments are, it's just going to move slow and more of
these treasury companies, that's kind of the new wave of this cycle and the governments maybe next
cycles when we'll start to actually see them come in oh i without wanting to sound totally cynical
about this i think that's a very good question but the bigger question is can we move forward
with this now or not and the fact that trump's media company bought two billion dollars worth a
week or two ago that now opens the possibility that the government can now buy it because i can't
see without wanting to sound too conspiratorial just look at what the leader of the free world
just did he went and bought two billion dollars worth of bitcoin for his own personal company
that now opens the pathway for the rest of the u.s and the strategic reserve to go full hog into it
is what i would say so i think it's it's not a matter of if it happens i think it's a matter of
win and we might be a whole lot closer to that situation than where we were previously.
Oh, man. All right, Peter, you're going to get me all bullish here. There we go. I love to hear
that. But I definitely think that this whole kind of aspect is very interesting, right? I mean,
you know, we're having the, like you said, the leader of the free world come in,
he's buying 2 billion worth of Bitcoin and, you know, for his company. And that's just kind of
the new wave. But we kind of touched on it briefly and something else that Senator Lummis announced
today, I'm not quite sure if you saw it, but now that the United States, they can officially look
at Bitcoin and digital assets as collateral or as part of something to buy a home. Now,
we talked about Wells Fargo's CEO already talking about Bitcoin's dipping into the $300 trillion
bond market. Is Bitcoin going to, you know, is the housing market next up? Is it kind of like
that meme with the, you know, the Grim Reaper where at first Bitcoin's like taking down the
bond market and now it's coming for real estate next? Is that how significant you kind of see this
move being? I haven't read the details on it, but one thing that would give me a great deal of
confidence in that being part of the move to do that and take down the real estate market
is if the investor or the mortgagee protections are in place for the borrower,
like they are for residential property.
So the US, Australia, most of the Western world have got provisions in place
that if you take out a mortgage on a property, a residential property,
that is, commercial is a very different beast.
But on residential property, governments around the world have wanted stability in that in that practice of borrowing money to buy your home.
And so they've instituted that if you as a lender, you only get one time to value that property if the contract is in good working order.
And so just let me explain that.
So when you buy a home they go and take out the value It comes in values the property and says right a million dollar property It valued at a million dollars The bank will lend you on that You then go and get your 10 year or your 30 year fixed mortgage or your variable rate mortgage and you pay that off
Now, if that property drops in value to $500,000, as long as you meet your mortgage repayments,
the bank, the lender is never going to come for that property and tell you that you've either got to give the property back
or you've got to top up the collateral that they took out on that.
It's kind of the risk that the lenders take in lending money to you in that form of contract.
To me, if Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac are able to create that type of assurity for people who are borrowing using Bitcoin,
I look at that and think all of a sudden that can tamper the downside volatility to it.
But if you hold that Bitcoin loan for 10 years, then you're not going to get a margin call.
And that's going to allow an enormous amount of leverage capital to go into the Bitcoin space and really disrupt that cost of housing, that monetization of housing.
And so what you'll see is you'll see a sucking sound coming out of the property market and going into the Bitcoin market.
So that to me is probably the most important leverage part of leveraging Bitcoin that really needs to be solved for is making sure that there's no margin call on it if you hold it for a specific duration.
much the same as residential property gets that same free kick now
and is afforded those type of protections.
If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were able to guarantee that,
two things would happen.
Firstly, and this isn't popular,
but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would probably have to custody that Bitcoin
to ensure that they've still got it.
But most importantly is as long as you made your monthly commitment
on that mortgage, on your Bitcoin,
you'd be able to ride through any downturn,
which is a superpower yeah it's interesting they they did come out and say that you need to have
your bitcoin custodied in some sort of like u.s approved entity so i'm not sure how specific that
is if it's like you need to have it with coinbase blackrock uh you know publicly traded entity or
like a cash app or strike or something that is approved in the u.s i'm not quite sure the details
on that exactly. But it seems like that's also another wave that's kind of popping up here as
well, where the Bitcoin collateralized loans. Why do you think that, like you said, that the
traditional financial world, you can deposit these in-kind redemptions, you could potentially get
some 5%, but we aren't seeing that a lot of times with a lot of these just Bitcoin-specific
companies is there you know maybe some disconnect um with the still the traditional financial world
with the bitcoin space still um you know why why is there you know why are you i guess able to get
such much lower rates when i think like you know i salt is a sponsor of the show they they give like
8.9 i think is the lowest strike you know i think gives just around 10 um like all these corporations
you know they're barely getting they're getting like high single digits to maybe double digits
at that point why aren't they not able to give the the five percent like traditional finance
i think twofold firstly they don't have access to unlimited pools of capital like the banks do
they can't create their own their own fiat to to loan out secondly there's a misunderstanding of
the risk that is entailed with lending on bitcoin to me bitcoin represents the best form of
collateral because it's 24-7, 365 liquid. There's no other collateral on earth that allows you to
sell something down in the event that you get close to that margin and it needs to be liquidated.
There's no other market on earth that has that flexibility. And what's interesting is that
from a lending perspective, that completely changes the whole dynamic of lending. At the moment,
we've got the three C's of lending, character, collateral, and capacity. Character refers to
whether or not you're going to pay the loan back.
Capacity refers to whether or not you can service it.
And then collateral refers to whether or not there's any value
in what you're giving them that they can resell
at a future point in time.
When you do a Bitcoin loan,
there's really only one thing you need to look at,
and that is who is custodying the Bitcoin?
Because they don't care about capacity
because they're holding your collateral.
They're not worried about the collateral
because they know it's 24-7, 365.
And because they're holding your collateral,
there's no requirement or servicing capacity, i.e. capacity to repay that loan that needs to go into
it. So it's a very simple lending product that really simplifies things dramatically. And this
is probably one of my bugbears where we have a misappropriation in that the world thinks we've
got a debt problem, but what we really have is we have a collateral problem. The world doesn't
have a debt problem because if we had a debt problem, we would simply take whatever collateral
is secured against that debt and everything would be okay. But the problem is, is that the collateral
that has been put up to secure the debts that are out there at the moment are precisely worth nothing.
So now we have a debt problem. It's really a collateral problem. So the world thinks we've
got a debt problem, but it's really a collateral problem just disguised as a debt problem because
if you call in your debts, there's no there there to recover what's outstanding for you.
Now, that's interesting that you're saying all this. Okay, so let's break that down a little
bit more because, all right, if we have a debt problem or a collateral problem, even though
we're in $37 trillion worth of debt, and now we have potentially the greatest collateral on planet
earth, this bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody
and off exchanges we all saw what happened last time with the huge blow-offs we had celsius ftx
all of the big dogs blowing up well this time everybody's being smart and holding their bitcoin
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Is this going to be like more of a savior of the dollar or do we get to that,
you know hyper bitcoinized world eventually i i think this this helps bring in a hyper bitcoinized
world and one of the one of the major tools i see um helping bring this in is a mutual friend of ours
cj um those bitcoin bonds the principal protected notes i look at as a key way to fast forward
um hyper bitcoinization um those principal protected notes i think are going to be
a huge demand driver for Bitcoin.
And I look at this and how they work very briefly is
if you're selling a principal protected note,
you can offer a capital guaranteed Bitcoin bond
where you structure a product where you've got 80% of it
tied to a municipal bond or a US treasury that pays 5%.
And the remaining 20% then goes into buying Bitcoin.
And what you have at the end of the five-year period
if you take what happened in the last five years
and assume it would be the same over the next five years,
that billion-dollar bond with an $800 million allocation to bonds
and $200 million allocation to Bitcoin would be worth $3 billion.
So you've created $2 billion of equity out of effectively nothing,
out of a capital-guaranteed product.
That would give you an annualised return of close to 20%
on a risk-free product.
Now, if you peel the layers back on that, I know, right,
It just sounds crazy.
But if you peel the layers back on this,
the really important part about this is,
is that this becomes the flywheel
that creates escape velocity for hyper-Bitcoinization,
I believe, because there's roughly, call it,
somewhere between $60 to $70 trillion worth of bonds
per annum that need to get refinanced.
Now, if you effectively created
that type of structured product with,
let's say, half of the bonds,
call it $30 trillion worth of bonds a year,
and you put 20% of that into Bitcoin,
you now have demand for $6 trillion worth of Bitcoin purchases per annum,
which would be like finding another 500 Michael Silas.
That's crazy.
What that does to price of Bitcoin is that will mean the CAGR will increase dramatically over the next 10 years
rather than go into the conversation about the declining returns over time.
Absolutely not. I don't want to see that. I'm not ready for declining returns yet.
That's why I want to see these type of products come into place.
I want to see this as a way to recapitalise the banking system.
Ironically, it will lead to strengthening the banking system, not bringing it down.
But unfortunately, Bitcoin is enemies money as well.
So we take the good with the bad. It'd be really great for price appreciation.
It'd be great for hyper-Bitcoinisation. It'd restabilise the banks.
It'd help us pay off all our debts.
within a five-year period here's the crazy thing within a five-year period that 25 trillion dollars
a year that you've put into that you've put into principal protective notes that's taken out five
trillion dollars worth of bitcoin every year in the space of 10 years if we did that on the entire
market could create about three quadrillion dollars worth of equity i mean does that mean
it's all going to go towards bitcoin and all right so we've got three quadra three quadrillions
worth of of equity towards bitcoin well i mean the multiplier effect at this point is you know
anywhere from eight to twenty five percent i think jim eight eight x to twenty five so meaning every
every dollar that goes into bitcoin the market cap increases by eight or 25 on the on the very
volatile times. So then we're looking at, you know, not only just getting well past gold, but,
you know, being the dominant force and potentially taking over all of these other markets. And is
that basically what you potentially foresee with more of these products coming online is like,
hey, we're not just talking about gold as this, the biggest asset. We're looking at the, you know,
$350 trillion real estate market. We're looking at the $300 or $300 trillion global bond market.
all of these things are just going to get swallowed up by Bitcoin and these products are going to be
the reason why I've got no doubt I see it clearly a lot of people think oh that's not possible that's
not going to happen and it's like just just stick around a little while and just watch this all come
to fruition this is the only reason why I talk about this stuff because unless we talk about it
and get that into the zeitgeist we're not going to have these products developed and create the
solutions that we need. But to me, it's clear as day. Because if I take a step back, the number one
problem that we have with our financial system at the moment is that we have Wall Street taking huge
speculative bets on Main Street assets. And so what do I mean by that? We've got the securitization
and monetization of the American housing market, real estate market, both with the residential
mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities. That's effectively a
leverage bet on the US property market. And you then have Wall Street basically betting in the
bond market, betting on the success and failure of US housing, US property. This is where Bitcoin
becomes really interesting because Bitcoin is a wildly volatile asset. And this allows Wall
Street to maintain speculative bets without mainstream consequence. And that is the most
important thing that Bitcoin will deliver the world. This is the divorce of the money printer
government. This is the ability for Wall Street to have its cake and eat it too. They can start
having wild speculation on an asset that has no forbearance or impact on the day-to-day cost of
living and housing affordability. And so what we're going to see is the monetary premium sucked
out of the American housing market. We're going to see the monetary premium sucked out of the US
stock market. And all of that speculative action is going to move into Bitcoin. And this is why I
find it amusing that to me it's clear as day that we're going to see the Bitcoin market be in the
quadrillions of dollars while all the other assets combined may make up a quarter of what's there.
So then it'll be basically Bitcoin 75% of all assets and then 25% and then you know eventually
everything just becomes Bitcoinized at that point right because it's just the behemoth at that point.
correct and obviously at that point in time it starts it really starts leveling out that you
know then we get to the diminishing returns but we've got so much demonetization to swallow in
bitcoin that i think we've got 10 20 years of 60 50 60 70 percent kegers in front of us
and it's crazy to me that that's like looked at as bad it's like hey that's diminishing returns
is like 50 60 70 percent uh keger which you know if you if you crunch the numbers that's you know
that's pretty damn good and that's beating the michael saylor prediction of you know 21
i think he said what 21 million in 21 years like a 21 keger um so he sees it as more of
you know diminishing returns and and you know i i think it's interesting the way you put it because
I really do think that when we look at the way that Bitcoin has developed and we look at Bitcoin
just on surface level, the fixed 21 million supply, let's call it 18 and a half million with all the
lost coins and Satoshi and everything else, that scarcity that we have, we've never seen a
financial-based product for it. And it's seemingly like the debt market is infinite. So I don't see
how this diminishing returns sort of hubbub could actually come to light because of that.
Because eventually we're going to hit what?
An infinite at a certain point in time.
And so if we've got all that, we've got Trump and the US actually announcing that they want
to borrow another $1.5 trillion within the next two quarters towards the end of this
year.
I mean, if you look at the global M2 money supply, and if you look at the amount that the government spends, Bitcoin price is pretty correlated with that.
And both of those seem to always go up.
So I think at a certain point in time, something's going to crack.
But is there anything that you look at in particular to see as this money starting to flow into Bitcoin?
Or is it kind of like accumulation of all of these things I'm just lining out here?
No, I think you're perfectly correct in that.
I think it's death by a thousand paper cuts.
Now, people are going to get it when they get it.
But at some point in time, it becomes irrefutable,
the evidence before your eyes.
And to talk about sailors' expectation of $21 million a coin
in 21 years, I would pair that with the greatest of respect
to Michael.
He's the chairman of a $100 billion company and needs to stay
within a range of acceptable limits from an Overton window perspective.
So I think he may be on the low end of that expectation over the next few years by looking
at some very conservative assumptions.
And this is where I think he's doing a great job in moving that Overton window forward
dramatically that now all of a sudden people are discussing in sincere terms the possibility
of a $21 million Bitcoin.
whereas until the CEO of a hundred billion dollar company started talking about it you know it
didn't seem possible so huge huge hat tip to Michael in in moving that over to window forward
yeah and he seemed to you know more so like move his uh I guess like bullish expectations
up like he he keeps increasing his price predictions every single time it seems like
he goes on stage.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we come back next year and we see him at Prague or on Vegas
and one of these things and give a speech as to why he thinks Bitcoin is going to, you
know, 210 million opposed to just 21 million at a certain point in time, right?
It always moves up Let me tell you probably the most famous person in the space prior to michael would have been kathy wood from a a tradfire perspective and you know i watch kathy um who i think is
absolutely brilliant move her move her expectations for bitcoin dramatically forward and i think her
optimistic outlook now is that one bitcoin we won the half million dollars of coin in 2030.
but i can assure you a few years ago it wasn't it wasn't that ambitious
and i think all these price predictions are just getting higher and higher and higher too
and it's like at a certain point how can you not i mean um you know with the current economic
situation we haven't even talked about that because um you know we've got an interesting
political theater is what i'll call it right now between trump and powell where trump has talked
about he's going to potentially fire him and all this and that you know powell is seemingly going
to hold strong tomorrow we're recording this the day before the july fomc meeting but you know if
you look at the cme group there's about a two percent chance that they actually cut interest
rates tomorrow so you know how would you describe i guess the overall just macro economic environment
right now and the role that bitcoin's kind of playing in it right now i think i think we're in
a very unique time there's a whole host of i guess economic experiments taking place before
our very eyes and if you read the textbooks you read casein or were a subscriber to keynesian
economics you would see that all of these tariffs and the economic games that are being played by
the administration, we're going to be extremely detrimental to the American consumer and would
unbalance trade. It would lead to a hugely negative connotation and impact to the American economy.
And what we've seen is we've seen Trump basically tip the board upside down,
create all these new tariffs, and it seems to have had little to no impact on the American
consumer and the American economy at large. So I look at this and think, well, isn't that
interesting. We're now in a new paradigm where traditional wisdom in economics is no longer
dictating what the policy should be. And we have an administration who's trying things that have
never been done before. So I find it endlessly fascinating, the economic situation at this point
in time. I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the doomers say. And I actually think we're in
a quite strong economic position right now. We've had rates at 5% for nearly the last three years.
and the economy's still kicking.
So people are still spending money
and yes, housing markets sort of gone by the by,
but that kind of had to happen anyway
because it was such an unproductive use of resources
and investment.
I think this sounds wildly unpopular,
but I think Powell's done Bitcoin as a huge, huge service
that when interest rates are at 5%,
housing affordability becomes very tough.
the property market prices need to drop speculative investment in that in that asset class is going to
drop dramatically and here we are despite bitcoin um you know saying that it was a it was only good
in zero zero rate policy here we are with rates at five percent for the last three years and
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enough from me back to the show i look at that and think ha isn't that interesting all the experts
were wrong again yeah it definitely is very interesting to see all that because everybody
was saying hey you know what pow is going to cut interest rates everything's going to be fine
but the the way that you know i feel like just the cutting of the interest rates when it happens
right that's just going to accelerate bitcoin's growth and everything every other asset class
has just been kind of lagging except for Bitcoin.
So I know we kind of talked about at the beginning of the show,
hey, you know, why isn't the price moving as much?
I feel like once we kind of like, you know,
get that money printer going, that's when all bets are off
because we have so much buying pressure already
from all of these, you know, companies.
Once rates get lower for them to borrow and obtain debt
to, you know, buy more Bitcoin and then just on a personal level,
or do you think people are going to start to flock into
other assets like you know maybe it'll help out the uh let's call it the global bond market or
help out the real estate market um or people just looking for those bigger returns and and bitcoin
seems to be the only only answer there's a lot in that question and probably to finish off on the
previous question around what's happening economically the thing that i have trouble
within traditional finance is that none of the figures that we look at have any meaning.
And what do I mean by that is we've got GDP figures which tell us how well the economy is growing.
We've got inflation rates which tell us how much more we've got to pay for our goods.
And we've got future forecasts on unemployment numbers that get re-rated after the fact.
I look at this and I think there are three key economic indicators we look at for the health of the economy.
and those institutions have been politicized
to create a narrative that the politicians can go to the polls with.
So I look at that and think traditional economic metrics
are completely out the window now.
They're of zero use in a Bitcoin world
and this is where fast-tracking the adoption of Bitcoin,
hyper-Bitcoinizing the world,
whether that's through the Bitcoin treasury companies
or through personal investment in Bitcoin and self-custody
and having all of these products around it,
I think is the only way that we get through this problem that we've got right now.
And the opportunity I see and the people I speak to is, you know, they're sitting on millions, if not tens of millions of dollars of property, real estate.
And they don't want to hold this anymore.
They're looking at this with interest rates at 5%.
Property is no longer affordable.
It's no longer a great investment.
And yes, when interest rates drop, they'll obviously be the initial kick.
But have we reached terminal capacity for debt and the repayment of debt in our society?
I kind of get the feeling we are.
And the only way to do that is to inflate the way out of the problem.
Now, the only way to inflate the way out of the problem
without having downstream impact on cost of housing,
cost of living, is to inflate the Bitcoin bubble.
So just send that thing to a quadrillion dollars total market cap
and there's no downstream consequence to it
because everyone wants to hold Bitcoin.
They don't want the other assets.
So this is sort of a theme I've talked on today is it's really important to divorce Wall Street speculation from Main Street consequence.
This allows everyone to speculate on Bitcoin, demonetizes all of the asset classes that we've got.
Ironically, it wouldn't demonetize them at all.
They'd just stay the same.
It'd be like watching the Japanese economy for the last 30 years.
It's basically flatlined from 30 years ago.
It hasn't gone anywhere over a 30-year period.
It just means that for the next 30 years, property is going to go nowhere.
stocks are really going to go nowhere but bitcoin's going to go up a thousand times
oh man peter can you get me more bullish i mean my goodness man with all of this i mean i just see
it everything just kind of scooting over towards bitcoin and it's happening quick and so you you
saying all you know the 10 to 15 years diminished returns man i feel like i'm like kathy wood and
michael saylor i think i'm gonna have to revise that and say it's gonna go come a little bit
quicker with with all of this but i think it's it's unique like all of these products that we're
starting to come on online as well i know that you guys at the bitcoin advisor are cooking up
something here so i want to hear about uh what you guys are up to and what you guys are uh i guess
seeing and uh yeah i mean tell me tell me how everything's going with with uh you guys just
being in the bitcoin space during this craziness that we have uh going on you know what there
Every day I get up and I've got to say, I'm very fortunate that I get to help a whole host of people move their net worth into Bitcoin.
And there's a great deal of satisfaction to that.
And the conversations we're having is with quite wealthy baby boomers would be our most typical client.
And we have deep conversations about their property portfolio, their stock portfolio.
and without giving them a nudge,
these are conclusions that they've reached on their own
by listening to podcasts like yours.
They realize that, hey, there's a limited upside
to holding this property.
And unfortunately, there is a whole host of liability
attached to that asset as well.
And a lot of people are having that shift
from traditional assets into Bitcoin
because they don't want the headache,
they don't want the cost, they don't want the liability,
they don't want the headaches from tenants calling them
in the all hours.
they don't want to have to be responsible for the maintenance of the property they might be on the
other side of the world you know cruising the mediterranean they're getting calls on having
to fix someone's toilet it's like what on earth is going on i thought i finished the financial game
and they realized that these assets that they used to look at as trophies are really a noose around
the neck it's a heavy load to bear and they don't want to do that anymore what's an asset that they
can just go on holidays and not have to worry about what's an asset that doesn't have land tax
associated to it? What's an asset that allows the monetization of this asset class? And I think
there's a thousand X return over the next 20 years in it. Sadly, there's not that type of monetization
or capitalization rates available in Bitcoin, in anything but Bitcoin. Property's not going to do
it. Stocks aren't going to do it. We've got most of the American, the US stock markets trading at
an average of about 23, 24 times price earnings ratio.
That is insane.
How is that good value?
You know, one of the craziest examples on this
of just how out of whack the world is right now
is, you know, Warren Buffett, God love him.
I wish he'd love Bitcoin, but he might die before he gets it.
I hope not.
I'd love to see him as a Bitcoin bull.
There'd be nothing better for Bitcoin than that.
But I look at this and think, you know,
he was buying coca-cola at a price earnings ratio of six to seven times back in the 80s
that thing during covert was trading at a 30 times price earnings multiple
doesn't make any sense
i mean it's just just i warren buffett has always been late to everything i mean can we just
agree upon that i mean he was late to what apple he was saying apple was the worst company and now
he's saying bitcoin is this and that i mean it seems like he's always been very you know i guess
slow moving when these things but you know he goes by the benjamin graham the you know price
to earnings ratio all of those things i mean it seems like those valuations and everything are
just dead and he's just got the massive amounts of cash that he has and you know he was in the
valuation where he was using the data before everybody else well now the market seems a little
bit more crazy when when we have all this money and liquidity in here so is warren buffett you
know will he ever get it i don't know but at this point in time it's just it seems like value
investing is dead but you can look at it on the flip side of things bitcoin value investing or
meets all of the value investing principles i mean that's actually how i how i really got orange
pilled is i was listening to preston pish that we study billionaires and he was breaking down the
you know, the value investing principles. And he would talk about this and they would talk about
various companies, how they're just so overvalued. And then, you know, he was like, well, if you kind
of just break it down, simple supply and demand with Bitcoin, and we're seeing the demand just
skyrocket up and it's insane. And of course, we've got the limited supply. I mean, it's just a matter
of time to me before this bubble just starts to pop. I couldn't agree more. And it's funny talking
about um warren buffett as an industry stalwart another industry stalwart that's been in the news
in the last couple of days has been ray dalio and he he came out i'm not sure if you saw this
with the 15 recommendation on a portfolio allocation to gold and bitcoin
yeah he did i saw that it's insane so i've got to say i was so amused to read this because
to give you some background about six years ago I gave a presentation to one of the families that
we looked after and I cited Ray Dalio as as one of his linchpins for investment was he talked about
finding 15 diverse investments that are not correlated to each other and and basically
do those and I said according to Ray Dalio's principles he's he's a bitcoiner he just doesn't
know it yet. And the response I got from the families that I discussed that with was just,
I was nearly laughed out of the room. They're like, oh, as if he's a Bitcoiner, like, you know,
you're just drawing conclusions that just aren't there. And it's extremely satisfying to watch six
years down the track, maybe a little bit longer after that presentation, Ray Dalio literally
coming out and saying, yeah, everyone should have 15% of their investments allocated to Bitcoin and
go. Well, the sad part is, Peter, is you remember that. I hope that they did, but I have a feeling
that they all just kind of let it go over in one ear, out the other. Because that's, I mean,
that's the kind of vibe I've always gotten from people when I try to explain to them in Bitcoin
is, you know, you need those multiple touch points. And maybe that was one for them. Maybe
you convinced them. I'm sure you did convince some of these people, but the ones that were
laughing to you about Ray Dalio, man, I mean, maybe they're there right now, or maybe this is
just another touch point for them. And then hopefully they'll start to get Bitcoin. I don't
know if I've ever told you about one of my best friends from back home who told me about Bitcoin
in 2012 and still hasn't bought it to this day. But it always seems like people get it at the
price that they deserve. It's so true. And I think all Bitcoin has suffered the same fate.
a prophet has no honor in his hometown.
So sadly, those that we love the most
are going to be the most reluctant
to hear the message from us.
And we can only put other people in front of them
in the hope that that message sticks
and they become a Bitcorner
and join us on this journey.
Exactly.
Well, Peter, you're always generous with your time
and I really appreciate you coming on.
I believe this is like the third or fourth time now.
So we've had some banging episodes
and I feel like I learned something new from you
and I get more bullish every time I talk to you.
So why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and more about the Bitcoin Advisor?
Sure thing. You can reach me at PeterBTCAdvisor with an E-R on X.
You can reach me at TheBitcoinAdvisor.com on the internet.
And if you're interested about borrowing on your Bitcoin for probably the most perfect use case I've seen for this loan product that we've just put together is for the Bitcoin treasury companies.
you can find more information at loanmycoins.com and i think it's a very unique product that
a lot of people who are wanting to take advantage of their equity in their bitcoin and
invest in bitcoin treasury companies will be able to benefit from so brandon i always have the best
time catching up with you so i appreciate you having me and hope we can do it again soon
of course you're a legend and i'll put all that in the show notes i encourage you guys all to check
out peter and the bitcoin advisor because this man one of the best to do it in this space thank
you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the state of bitcoin podcast if you
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