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What happens then is we have an immediate candle.

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Samson likes it all for.

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We have a multi-million dollar Bitcoin.

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We have a 10x jump overnight because we've now reached the saturation point

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where there's no longer any Bitcoin available to buy

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because everyone holding it doesn't want to sell it.

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And I can't tell you how many conversations I've had with OG Bitcoiners

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who are sitting on hundreds of thousands of coins.

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And then there's a 1% chance that we find someone who runs a central bank,

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has access to a money printer and can hold the fingers down until they bleed and just buy Bitcoin

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and set a new price at a million dollars. And so I think it's not a matter of if it happens,

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I think it's a matter of when and we might be a whole lot closer to that situation than where we

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were previously. What's up guys, before we get started, I've realized that over 50,000 of you

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guys keep coming back for every single episode. And while I'm eternally grateful for you guys to

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keep coming back. I've realized that 79% of you guys are not subscribed. So I have one small ask

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before we get started. If you guys could hit that subscribe button and hit that like button to help

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send this interview and many more to the stratosphere, it would be greatly appreciated.

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All right, enough from me. Let's get into the show. Bing bong. We are back with another edition

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of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, recurring guest,

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Peter Dunworth. But Peter, man, do we have some bullish news to say the very least.

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But the interesting thing with all of this bullish news, all of these new Bitcoin treasury

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companies coming on, we aren't seeing the skyrockets in flight. We aren't seeing the

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rocket ship take off yet. So is it just a matter of time here, Peter? Or is there something little

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fishy going on here where we're seeing some whales sell off, maybe some collusion to keep

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the price down so people can scoop up as much corn as possible what do you think is going on and

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yeah man welcome to the show it's good to be with you i uh i kind of think it's a choose your own

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adventure when you look at what's going on right now you can buy into the paper you know paper

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bitcoin myth that oh there's paper being sold and this is why we've got the price price suppression

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you look at the on-chain analytics and the 80 000 coins to get hoovered up in a weekend and

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it doesn't drop more than 6% is a big, big deal.

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I can't help but think that that would be OTC Desk

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putting together that order for Saylor on 21,000 coins

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from his recent announcement.

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But this, I think, is a beautiful market right now

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is that we understand what all of these things mean.

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I think the Bitcoin treasury companies knew this cycle

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and we've seen a whole host of copycats spring up.

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But I look at this and think,

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This, what we're seeing right now is signs of a maturing asset class where volume is starting to get much, much bigger.

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And the important thing about this is this invites much bigger players into this space.

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And to absorb 80,000 coins in the space of a week or a few days, I think is probably the most important news that we've got.

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because if you look at the major capital allocators globally,

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they're not interested in pursuing opportunities

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that they can get into.

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What they're really concerned about

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is getting out of the opportunity when they don't like it.

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And so seeing 80,000 Bitcoins just bought up in a few days

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is very, very bullish for opening up that next wave of capital,

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the much larger wave of capital to come to Bitcoin.

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So although it might not look like at the moment

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with bullish price action,

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I think it lays the foundation for some significant bullish price action and buyers to start entering the market.

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Yeah, it's interesting you're saying all this because, you know, the narrative is that, you know, there's going to be diminished returns over time.

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But I mean, I just, I, for some reason, just can't buy into that narrative.

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And a big part of it is just the amount of Bitcoin you're seeing on exchanges.

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And you mentioned OTC desks as well.

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I mean, these big dogs, they got to go somewhere, right?

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They're not just logging into a Coinbase account and buying these.

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And we're seeing that rapidly get taken off.

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And these guys, they're not selling.

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So do you believe in that narrative of the diminished returns?

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Or do you think we're going to have something where we get a little bit wonky here in the next year or so?

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I think we can see diminished returns per se, but then that's going to break.

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And if you look at the logical conclusion to how, say, a lot of those Bitcoin maxis operate and how they run their personal lives, if you look at how the reason for being for these Bitcoin treasury companies, you can't help but follow out the extension of the logical conclusion of all of the intersection in years down the track is that no one is going to want to sell Bitcoin.

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So what happens then? What happens then is we have an Omega candle, as Samson likes to talk about, or we have a multimillion dollar Bitcoin.

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We have a 10x jump overnight because we've now reached the saturation point where there's no longer any Bitcoin available to buy because everyone holding it doesn't want to sell it.

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And that ushers in a whole new period of, I think, human civilization and monetization of Bitcoin.

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So obviously there'll always be a price that someone's willing to pay.

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But you look at these treasury companies, they've already told you they're going to buy Bitcoin until they're blue in the face or till their eyes bleed.

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And they're never going to sell it.

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And the second they sell their Bitcoin is the second they no longer become a Bitcoin treasury company.

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And the entire, you know, their entire investor base starts selling their stock.

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So they're a captive audience for that.

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And I think there's going to be downstream effects on that that has to place upward pressure, like an exponential pressure on a digitally scarce asset in Bitcoin.

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Well, I think it's unique, too, because we've had essentially Saylor, you know, kind of leading the charge.

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And it seems like he keeps finding out new ways to buy more Bitcoin and issue more debt.

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I mean, he just offered this new offering, the STRC, where now they're buying 21,021 Bitcoin.

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Obviously, there's some symbolism in there.

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But it seems like everywhere you turn, no matter what with these treasury companies,

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Saylor's leading the charge, and he's opening up the playbook and doing it all,

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and in fact, trying to bring others under his arm to mentor.

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Now with this blowing up, would that be catastrophic if we had some of these smaller players?

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I'm not saying that MicroStrategy or Strategy B now it's called is going to blow up, but

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is there any, I guess, negative effect of all of these treasury companies coming on

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seemingly at the same time?

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Look, I think proceed with caution with that.

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Obviously, it feels like the flavor of the month that everyone's getting involved in

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these treasury companies and there have been some really outstanding performances in these treasury

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companies that just blow the absolute absolute socks off um bitcoin's returns and you know

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they're leveraging bitcoin but i think it's a double-edged sword i think for the most part

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it's a good thing we're lucky in that i think we've got a good faith actor in michael saylor

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who accounts for 95% of the entire market.

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And so, you know, you look at, say, number two or number three is MetaPlanet

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and, you know, they've got a total of 20,000 coins or just under

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and sailors bought that literally in one week.

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So there are just scales of this that are immensely different.

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And given that we've got, I think, the two leading treasury companies

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in MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet being good faith actors

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and wanting the best for Bitcoin,

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I think we're in pretty safe hands.

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Yes, there's going to be a whole host of copycats,

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which I don't think are going to be as successful as those two.

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But I think it's, you know, choose what level of risk you're willing to take

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if you do dabble in that.

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I think we've seen over the last few years,

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Saylor has proved himself in every facet with every challenge

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that's been presented with him or to him in Bitcoin.

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And I think Simon and Dylan at MetaPlanet have held themselves impeccably,

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particularly with some interesting or curious things that they've had to face

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and they've been nothing but transparent to the market yeah they really have and and i think that

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all of these you know new ceos kind of coming in are trying to trying to take note of that um and

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you know especially sailor being you know sailor and he's tweeting out basically every single monday

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it seems that they're buying bitcoin uh the transparency is very unique in this bitcoin space

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Now, obviously, you've got some experience in the traditional financial realm.

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Do you think that these treasury companies, I believe there's like 160 now publicly traded companies worldwide, at least as of this recording today.

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There's a seemingly new one popping up every single day, but 160 right now.

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Are all of these making enough noise where traditional finance is starting to see, hey, you know what?

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sailors starting to tap into that $300 trillion global bond market. And there's all these other

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products coming up where they're starting to, I guess, quote unquote, financialize Bitcoin,

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or maybe Bitcoinize financial products in a sense, where now traditional finance is now

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really starting to take this serious? I think there's a lot with that question. And I think

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if I struck that down into two parts, we are seeing the Bitcoinization of the financial world

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through these Bitcoin treasury companies. And at the same time, there is a risk attached to it.

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It's not all a free kick. There's a serious amount of risk attached to this. And I'll just

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highlight the example of this with GameStop. GameStop is effectively a zombie company sitting

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on a pile of cash that announced to the market they're going to become a Bitcoin treasury company.

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now they failed to follow through on that and disappointed the market enormously because they

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said i will buy a little bit bit of bitcoin and they've left the majority of that cash sitting in

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cash now for a treasury company to succeed they need to be 100 committed to the strategy you can't

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run an alternate business and hope to have a bitcoin treasury company on the side

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I'm not sure if you've heard the story of the pig and the chicken when it comes to breakfast.

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No, I haven't.

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So the pig and the chicken, these Bitcoin treasury companies want to have their cake and eat it too.

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The new companies that are sort of trying the Bitcoin treasury strategy.

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And the problem is, is that you cannot be serious about being a treasury company.

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You have to be committed.

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And back to the breakfast, you know, when we talk about the chicken and the pig, the chicken's serious about breakfast because that's its egg on the table.

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But the pig's committed because it's his ass on your breakfast plate.

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And if you're going to pursue these Bitcoin treasury strategies, there's no half measures available to you in this.

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If you do a half measure in the treasury companies, you'll get, sounds like I'm in a ghetto.

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So, yeah, if you do do the half measures with the treasury companies,

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the market will punish you for not being aggressive enough.

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So you have to jump in with two feet.

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You have to be the pig on the plate.

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You cannot just be half committed to this strategy

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because the market will absolutely punish you.

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And so that's where I think with so many options in place,

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it's hard to know who is serious and who is committed.

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So I think it warrants a huge amount of work to get comfortable with that

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because I think there are a lot of companies who will have a false start with it,

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and then they'll get scared by the volatility,

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and they'll step back from that strategy altogether.

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So do you think that GameStop, in a sense, almost regrets

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kind of going through with this Bitcoin strategy

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just because they weren't all in?

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Because, I mean, GameStop had this, I guess,

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the short squeeze that everybody remembers back from the Cerveza sickness days

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just five years ago.

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And then now we have them not really going all in on Bitcoin, even though Ryan Cohen was pictured, it was rumored for a long time.

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It seemed like this would be almost a perfect marriage, putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

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But like you said, they didn't necessarily go all in.

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So do you think that it's almost like a regret for some of these companies that don't jump with two feet in?

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I think absolutely.

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Look at the share price since they've done it.

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It's been disappointing, to say the least.

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And there was a huge hoopla made about this strategy that they were looking to implement.

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Ryan spoke at the Las Vegas conference this year for the Bitcoin magazine conference.

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And the expectation was this was going to be the start of a strategy that would not only invest all of their cash into Bitcoin, it would then start creating the debt instruments for it.

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And back to one of the things that we didn't cover earlier with these 160 Treasury companies come to place.

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The bond market, although it's the biggest market in the world, there's $300 trillion of liquidity there.

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They're probably the most astute investors in the world.

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They're not going to want to have the second, third, fourth best issuance of this debt across a number of different companies.

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I think there's going to be market leaders in each jurisdiction and there's maybe going to be room for three or four in total.

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And I could be completely wrong, but it looks that way to me that there'll be the winners and the losers.

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The winners can issue as much debt as they see fit and the losers will basically tend to zero and we'll have a consolidation.

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So we're just in that Cambrian explosion phase of market movements where everything is possible.

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and we'll have a consolidation and the realization that there are winners and losers and

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now there'll be a select few winners now so are you saying basically mstr microstrategy because

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it's the big dog that it like you know coming in second place is essentially you know the

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consolidation like nobody's going to ever catch them i i don't think so i think this is very much

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like Zeno's paradox, the, I guess, the thought experiment that if you move 50% closer to your

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target, how close are you? You know, when do you reach the, when do you reach the wall? And the fact

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is you never reach the wall. And so in this, in this line of thinking, micro strategy represents

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the wall. And, you know, the, all these in, all these Bitcoin treasury companies starting, they get

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50% closer to the wall in their first step. Then they get 50% again, and they're 75% of the way

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there. They're going to get closer and closer to micro strategy. I just don't think they can ever

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be toppled because they've got such a huge lead. And the other thing is that they're forging a

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whole host of new markets and breaking that open for everyone else. But there's a level of maturity

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that these companies need to reach in order to do that for themselves. Just because Saylor did it

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doesn't mean that a company that's a year old can go to the debt markets and say, hey, let's do this.

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proven they're not gonna no debt market participant is really going to provide any amount of liquidity

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or capital to that type of investment and so they need to have michael's had five years at this

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nearly literally next month he's been at this for five years so he's got a demonstrable track record

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of five years of buying bitcoin and telling the market exactly what he'll do and being 100%

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straight and honest with them so when he goes to the bond market there's 300 trillion there and he

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tells them something they're going to believe it but if a johnny come lately comes along and tries

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to do that same thing as well just because oh well he did it we can do it no there a 50 billion dollar balance sheet or more there what is it It probably close to a billion balance sheet now or net asset value on that balance sheet

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And he's got a five-year track record

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of being impeccable with his work.

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Those things matter.

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Now, what about these different markets, right?

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Because obviously we have the US,

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which is the biggest global market there is,

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but it seems like there's going to be potentially

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like a leader, like you said, like MetaPlanet, right?

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I mean, Japan is very interesting when it comes to, it's just connection to the United States in general. And Saylor said something interesting in one of his talks that he was not worried that, you know, MetaPlanet might catch them, but the Japanese debt market is so big that, you know, somebody in the bond market, these bond investors, they're just have zero faith in the bonds because they have negative interest rates that, you know, they're looking for something like a MetaPlanet.

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And so he's going to be able to potentially catch them.

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Do you see that as a scenario just because of the uniqueness of the Japanese market?

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Look, there's a lot of things I really like about MetaPlanet.

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The first is that it's a vassal state.

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Japan's a vassal state of the US.

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So by default, you get a lot of the property protections of investing in the US by investing in Japan, which I think is very different to the rest of Asia.

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But the other thing that I think is really important is that it has a very different setup from the US.

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And that would be, and I'd probably have to check with others on this, but my expectation would be that that is the biggest euro dollar market on earth with the lowest interest rate.

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So when you pair those two things together, that is a huge, huge opportunity for the Japanese market and any Bitcoin treasury company in that market.

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because when you pair low interest rates, ultra low interest rates of circa half to 1%

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with the ability to get a return on your capital such that Bitcoin represents

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when you package it up into a bond or a convertible note,

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there is a huge arbitrage that makes Japan and the Bitcoin treasury companies in Japan

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much more appealing than treasury companies in the US.

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And just looking at this in really rough numbers,

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last time I checked

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Simon was talking about issuing

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the potential of issuing bonds at a

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4-5% rate

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versus

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MicroStrategy which was issuing

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at a 10% rate. Well straight off

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the bat that allows them to buy double the amount

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of, or that allows them to afford

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double the amount of debt

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for the same purchase, for the

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same amount of interest expense

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so I look at that and think they're

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extremely well placed relative to

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everyone else on earth for those few unique characteristics of their market.

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All right. Yeah. I mean, I definitely think that that's,

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that's going to be something that unique to, to watch into. And it's always been,

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you know, something that I think is very curious with all of this.

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So it's just the interaction of the different markets,

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but I want to get into retail. The narrative right now is that retail isn't here,

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But on the flip side of things, everybody's reporting how much the ETFs are buying.

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And the assumption is it's institutional investors.

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But these reports that have come out say like 70% to 80% of ETF buying is from retail.

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And these institutional buyers aren't here.

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So from getting your ear to the street, which one do you think it is?

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Do you believe the narrative that retail isn't here?

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Or do you think it's more institutions are just having a select few that are really buying?

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I think it's probably a combination of both.

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I think the notion retail's not here comes from that old homage to the Google searchers,

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that basically no one's searching for Bitcoin, so where is everyone?

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I think there is an opaqueness with the institutional market money,

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and those ETFs do a very good job of hiding where that money comes from.

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We really just rely on BlackRock and Fidelity to tell us what's happening.

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To me, the most interesting thing about that, which I think is a huge step forward for us,

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and it's a wonderful thing to see because this is something I've been wanting to see for a number of years now,

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is we have just recently the SEC came out and said that the ETFs can make in-kind deposits and redemptions.

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So I look at this and think that is an enormous, enormous opportunity for Bitcoin.

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Now, all of a sudden, this may seem unpopular, don't shoot the messenger, but there's going to be a whole host of OG Bitcoiners who no longer want to self-custody their Bitcoin.

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Or they want to access traditional financial markets.

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They don't want to have a capital gains tax paid on transferring it to get the same exposure, but want it custodied and want some relief for that self-custody that they've been doing.

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I look at this and think this is going to bring about a whole host of opportunities for Bitcoiners who are holding it.

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There's going to be a whole host of financial products that are built around that.

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This, to me, represents one step closer to the banks being able to custody Bitcoin.

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You had the SEC laid down the foundation that they said they could custody it.

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This is one step closer to it.

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And we're going to start seeing a whole host of products, financial products built on the back of it,

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which there's probably no bigger advocate for not your keys,

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not your coins than myself.

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We have a business running self-custody

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and helping clients all over the globe with self-custody.

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But at the same time, you've got to meet people where they are.

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And a lot of people aren't ready for self-custody.

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But this is a way to get the rest of the population

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into the wonderful benefits of Bitcoin.

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And then they will, through their own endeavors,

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go down the rabbit hole to find out why they want to be self-custody.

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So I look at this as just another top of funnel adoption mechanism for Bitcoin into the mainstream.

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Now, why do you think the in-kind is so big?

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Do you just think it's more of just the OGs trying to access, whether it's traditional loans or something else?

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Because that is interesting.

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I do think it's big, but I wasn't really thinking the OGs were going to come back.

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So I'm curious on that point.

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And why do you think the OGs are looking to get into these more financial-based products?

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I think for a number of reasons.

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Firstly, if you look at the interest rate differential on loans for those type of facilities versus something else,

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I know globally there are lenders who can give you a sub-5% loan on that type of facility,

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whereas the best I've seen in Bitcoin terms has been, say, single digits, just under single digit interest rates on loan products.

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So for one, that's an immediate benefit.

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But probably the bigger, more intangible benefit, although there is a tangible element to this, is that it legitimizes the Bitcoiners' wealth.

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I can't tell you how many conversations I've had with OG Bitcoiners who are sitting on hundreds, if not thousands of coins,

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and they don't have any way of monetizing their Bitcoin

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in a legitimate fashion or they're scared to.

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This allows them to transfer without any capital gains tax

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to a financial institution their Bitcoin

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and legitimately finance that in a way that they might want to

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buy a car, buy a home, pay the kids' school fees,

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whatever it might be, but it's a way of monetizing that Bitcoin

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that they otherwise haven't had.

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and it's a double-edged sword because you know we want to have less and less bitcoin

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so uh custody by the major institutions but there are some benefits on a personal level that people

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will want to take advantage of yeah and it's interesting too because the ibit etf i don't

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know if you saw this but the sec just improved 10xing the limit from 25 000 to 20 250 000

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contracts so it'll allow everybody to to you know take on much more exposure obviously 10x the

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exposure now do you normally see moves like this when it comes to you know traditional financial

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products or like etfs or is this like is everything that we're just seeing here with the bitcoin etfs

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just unheard of i just think we're in new ground we bitcoin etfs at this point in time that that

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is unusual to have a product that's less than 18 months old have its limits increased by 10x that

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that is very rare i'd love to see the stats on how many companies financial instruments have actually

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had that approved and i think you'd be able to count them on one hand but i just look at that

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is really a function of the success of bitcoin and the etf this has been the best best most

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a successful launch for BlackRock.

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It's the biggest ETF or the fastest growing ETF

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they've ever had.

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The crowd has spoken.

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They want this.

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And this is why I think the SEC is under this administration,

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the US is acting more to deliver what the people want.

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And, you know, 25,000 units in that contract were not enough.

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So it's now 250,000.

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So the leverage on Bitcoin in these options can just get,

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00:26:28,738 --> 00:26:32,078
could be so much higher.

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00:26:58,738 --> 00:27:04,078
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335
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336
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337
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338
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from mining with Simple Mining. All right, enough from me. Let's get back to the show.

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yeah and i mean it's interesting right because um you know i i don't think that traditional

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finance has just gotten to the point to realize just about this overall digital scarcity and

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scarcity just in general of bitcoin and i don't know if a lot of bitcoiners truly understand it

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as well uh just because you know we had jack mallers go on and on cnbc as he does or you know

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one of the traditional media outlets today say, Hey, you know what, you know, I'm going to still

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be buying at 120, 130, 140, 150. There's not a price that I won't be buying Bitcoin. And I just

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see all of this Bitcoin getting taken off exchanges and getting moving into hands, the ETFs increasing

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all of this buying pressure. You know, we did see that short squeeze with GameStop, which we talked

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about a little bit earlier. Like, do you see there being a potential of that here with, with Bitcoin,

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just the way that we're seeing the amount of buying pressure?

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Or are you more along the line with your fellow Aussie,

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Checkmatey, who thinks we're going to get that slow grind up

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to that $1 million?

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It's hard to argue with Checkmatey because he's just clinical

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in his analysis.

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So I think I'll put a foot in both camps to disappoint you.

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If I look at it, I think, and this is Check to a T,

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I think he'll be right 99% of the time.

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We're going to get a slow grind to $1 million.

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And then there's a 1% chance that we find someone who runs a central bank, has access to a money printer and can hold the fingers down till they bleed and just buy Bitcoin and set a new price at a million dollars.

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And I know if I had that opportunity for the Australian or the Reserve Bank in Australia, I'd just go into the Treasury and I would literally buy.

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I'd sit first I'd set up accounts all over the globe with every single exchange I could possibly

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find and then I would just start buying whether it's a million dollars a minute or ten million

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dollars a minute it wouldn't matter but I would literally just buy until there was no more

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bitcoin sitting on exchange and then the price would be whatever it is but the buy order would

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be in and it'd be a million dollars a minute or a million dollars every every 10 seconds and

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those buyers would just keep going until liquidity dried up or we found ourselves at a million dollars

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of coin. Yeah. And I mean, it's interesting because like all of this is kind of coming on

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to the scene right now. And everybody's talking about all of the Bitcoin being scooped up by

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these treasury companies. And tomorrow we actually have the US going into their strategic reserve

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and kind of breaking it all down, how much Bitcoin they'd actually had. There's been speculation that

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the U.S. sold it off. Somebody found a wallet seized by the U.S. Marshals that only had 28,000

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instead of the 200,000. Obviously, this has all been kind of some speculation here,

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but I think it's kind of a unique twist here that we've had Bo Hines even say,

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hey, you know what? We don't have to report the buying and we don't have to be as open as Michael

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Saylor has been. So I'm kind of of the opinion, maybe, you know, I'll look dumb after this episode

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comes out because they're not doing it tomorrow. But I think that there's a slight chance that

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they've been buying kind of behind closed doors. Maybe they'll announce it tomorrow. I'm not sure,

377
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but I know that they're definitely like looking into it, right? They have all these Bitcoin bulls

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on the US government. Now, do you think that that is coming soon? Or do you think that,

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you know, that because of the way that governments are, it's just going to move slow and more of

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these treasury companies, that's kind of the new wave of this cycle and the governments maybe next

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cycles when we'll start to actually see them come in oh i without wanting to sound totally cynical

382
00:31:11,398 --> 00:31:16,758
about this i think that's a very good question but the bigger question is can we move forward

383
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with this now or not and the fact that trump's media company bought two billion dollars worth a

384
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week or two ago that now opens the possibility that the government can now buy it because i can't

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see without wanting to sound too conspiratorial just look at what the leader of the free world

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just did he went and bought two billion dollars worth of bitcoin for his own personal company

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that now opens the pathway for the rest of the u.s and the strategic reserve to go full hog into it

388
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is what i would say so i think it's it's not a matter of if it happens i think it's a matter of

389
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win and we might be a whole lot closer to that situation than where we were previously.

390
00:32:00,938 --> 00:32:05,178
Oh, man. All right, Peter, you're going to get me all bullish here. There we go. I love to hear

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that. But I definitely think that this whole kind of aspect is very interesting, right? I mean,

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you know, we're having the, like you said, the leader of the free world come in,

393
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he's buying 2 billion worth of Bitcoin and, you know, for his company. And that's just kind of

394
00:32:22,058 --> 00:32:29,538
the new wave. But we kind of touched on it briefly and something else that Senator Lummis announced

395
00:32:29,538 --> 00:32:34,738
today, I'm not quite sure if you saw it, but now that the United States, they can officially look

396
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at Bitcoin and digital assets as collateral or as part of something to buy a home. Now,

397
00:32:43,618 --> 00:32:48,998
we talked about Wells Fargo's CEO already talking about Bitcoin's dipping into the $300 trillion

398
00:32:48,998 --> 00:32:55,298
bond market. Is Bitcoin going to, you know, is the housing market next up? Is it kind of like

399
00:32:55,298 --> 00:32:59,998
that meme with the, you know, the Grim Reaper where at first Bitcoin's like taking down the

400
00:32:59,998 --> 00:33:04,538
bond market and now it's coming for real estate next? Is that how significant you kind of see this

401
00:33:04,538 --> 00:33:11,278
move being? I haven't read the details on it, but one thing that would give me a great deal of

402
00:33:11,278 --> 00:33:17,018
confidence in that being part of the move to do that and take down the real estate market

403
00:33:17,018 --> 00:33:29,098
is if the investor or the mortgagee protections are in place for the borrower,

404
00:33:29,658 --> 00:33:31,598
like they are for residential property.

405
00:33:32,018 --> 00:33:37,458
So the US, Australia, most of the Western world have got provisions in place

406
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that if you take out a mortgage on a property, a residential property,

407
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that is, commercial is a very different beast.

408
00:33:43,018 --> 00:33:51,478
But on residential property, governments around the world have wanted stability in that in that practice of borrowing money to buy your home.

409
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And so they've instituted that if you as a lender, you only get one time to value that property if the contract is in good working order.

410
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And so just let me explain that.

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So when you buy a home they go and take out the value It comes in values the property and says right a million dollar property It valued at a million dollars The bank will lend you on that You then go and get your 10 year or your 30 year fixed mortgage or your variable rate mortgage and you pay that off

412
00:34:21,697 --> 00:34:26,817
Now, if that property drops in value to $500,000, as long as you meet your mortgage repayments,

413
00:34:27,317 --> 00:34:33,197
the bank, the lender is never going to come for that property and tell you that you've either got to give the property back

414
00:34:33,197 --> 00:34:35,777
or you've got to top up the collateral that they took out on that.

415
00:34:35,777 --> 00:34:40,777
It's kind of the risk that the lenders take in lending money to you in that form of contract.

416
00:34:40,777 --> 00:34:51,777
To me, if Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac are able to create that type of assurity for people who are borrowing using Bitcoin,

417
00:34:51,777 --> 00:34:55,777
I look at that and think all of a sudden that can tamper the downside volatility to it.

418
00:34:55,777 --> 00:35:01,777
But if you hold that Bitcoin loan for 10 years, then you're not going to get a margin call.

419
00:35:01,777 --> 00:35:11,157
And that's going to allow an enormous amount of leverage capital to go into the Bitcoin space and really disrupt that cost of housing, that monetization of housing.

420
00:35:11,157 --> 00:35:16,917
And so what you'll see is you'll see a sucking sound coming out of the property market and going into the Bitcoin market.

421
00:35:17,137 --> 00:35:28,637
So that to me is probably the most important leverage part of leveraging Bitcoin that really needs to be solved for is making sure that there's no margin call on it if you hold it for a specific duration.

422
00:35:28,637 --> 00:35:32,537
much the same as residential property gets that same free kick now

423
00:35:32,537 --> 00:35:34,717
and is afforded those type of protections.

424
00:35:35,617 --> 00:35:39,317
If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were able to guarantee that,

425
00:35:39,737 --> 00:35:40,577
two things would happen.

426
00:35:40,717 --> 00:35:42,137
Firstly, and this isn't popular,

427
00:35:42,297 --> 00:35:45,737
but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would probably have to custody that Bitcoin

428
00:35:45,737 --> 00:35:47,837
to ensure that they've still got it.

429
00:35:48,497 --> 00:35:51,717
But most importantly is as long as you made your monthly commitment

430
00:35:51,717 --> 00:35:53,817
on that mortgage, on your Bitcoin,

431
00:35:54,977 --> 00:35:57,057
you'd be able to ride through any downturn,

432
00:35:57,057 --> 00:36:04,337
which is a superpower yeah it's interesting they they did come out and say that you need to have

433
00:36:04,337 --> 00:36:11,037
your bitcoin custodied in some sort of like u.s approved entity so i'm not sure how specific that

434
00:36:11,037 --> 00:36:16,417
is if it's like you need to have it with coinbase blackrock uh you know publicly traded entity or

435
00:36:16,417 --> 00:36:21,897
like a cash app or strike or something that is approved in the u.s i'm not quite sure the details

436
00:36:21,897 --> 00:36:28,437
on that exactly. But it seems like that's also another wave that's kind of popping up here as

437
00:36:28,437 --> 00:36:36,137
well, where the Bitcoin collateralized loans. Why do you think that, like you said, that the

438
00:36:36,137 --> 00:36:41,997
traditional financial world, you can deposit these in-kind redemptions, you could potentially get

439
00:36:41,997 --> 00:36:47,857
some 5%, but we aren't seeing that a lot of times with a lot of these just Bitcoin-specific

440
00:36:47,857 --> 00:36:53,977
companies is there you know maybe some disconnect um with the still the traditional financial world

441
00:36:53,977 --> 00:37:00,377
with the bitcoin space still um you know why why is there you know why are you i guess able to get

442
00:37:00,377 --> 00:37:05,937
such much lower rates when i think like you know i salt is a sponsor of the show they they give like

443
00:37:05,937 --> 00:37:12,597
8.9 i think is the lowest strike you know i think gives just around 10 um like all these corporations

444
00:37:12,597 --> 00:37:18,037
you know they're barely getting they're getting like high single digits to maybe double digits

445
00:37:18,037 --> 00:37:23,797
at that point why aren't they not able to give the the five percent like traditional finance

446
00:37:23,797 --> 00:37:29,977
i think twofold firstly they don't have access to unlimited pools of capital like the banks do

447
00:37:29,977 --> 00:37:36,317
they can't create their own their own fiat to to loan out secondly there's a misunderstanding of

448
00:37:36,317 --> 00:37:41,337
the risk that is entailed with lending on bitcoin to me bitcoin represents the best form of

449
00:37:41,337 --> 00:37:47,077
collateral because it's 24-7, 365 liquid. There's no other collateral on earth that allows you to

450
00:37:47,077 --> 00:37:51,797
sell something down in the event that you get close to that margin and it needs to be liquidated.

451
00:37:52,297 --> 00:37:57,377
There's no other market on earth that has that flexibility. And what's interesting is that

452
00:37:57,377 --> 00:38:02,697
from a lending perspective, that completely changes the whole dynamic of lending. At the moment,

453
00:38:02,697 --> 00:38:07,757
we've got the three C's of lending, character, collateral, and capacity. Character refers to

454
00:38:07,757 --> 00:38:09,377
whether or not you're going to pay the loan back.

455
00:38:09,957 --> 00:38:12,197
Capacity refers to whether or not you can service it.

456
00:38:12,337 --> 00:38:14,877
And then collateral refers to whether or not there's any value

457
00:38:14,877 --> 00:38:16,677
in what you're giving them that they can resell

458
00:38:16,677 --> 00:38:17,757
at a future point in time.

459
00:38:18,197 --> 00:38:19,637
When you do a Bitcoin loan,

460
00:38:19,997 --> 00:38:22,357
there's really only one thing you need to look at,

461
00:38:22,437 --> 00:38:24,537
and that is who is custodying the Bitcoin?

462
00:38:25,157 --> 00:38:27,457
Because they don't care about capacity

463
00:38:27,457 --> 00:38:29,477
because they're holding your collateral.

464
00:38:29,977 --> 00:38:31,377
They're not worried about the collateral

465
00:38:31,377 --> 00:38:33,197
because they know it's 24-7, 365.

466
00:38:34,077 --> 00:38:37,277
And because they're holding your collateral,

467
00:38:37,277 --> 00:38:43,717
there's no requirement or servicing capacity, i.e. capacity to repay that loan that needs to go into

468
00:38:43,717 --> 00:38:48,357
it. So it's a very simple lending product that really simplifies things dramatically. And this

469
00:38:48,357 --> 00:38:58,837
is probably one of my bugbears where we have a misappropriation in that the world thinks we've

470
00:38:58,837 --> 00:39:04,317
got a debt problem, but what we really have is we have a collateral problem. The world doesn't

471
00:39:04,317 --> 00:39:09,637
have a debt problem because if we had a debt problem, we would simply take whatever collateral

472
00:39:09,637 --> 00:39:14,877
is secured against that debt and everything would be okay. But the problem is, is that the collateral

473
00:39:14,877 --> 00:39:19,937
that has been put up to secure the debts that are out there at the moment are precisely worth nothing.

474
00:39:20,797 --> 00:39:27,417
So now we have a debt problem. It's really a collateral problem. So the world thinks we've

475
00:39:27,417 --> 00:39:31,657
got a debt problem, but it's really a collateral problem just disguised as a debt problem because

476
00:39:31,657 --> 00:39:36,557
if you call in your debts, there's no there there to recover what's outstanding for you.

477
00:39:37,737 --> 00:39:41,737
Now, that's interesting that you're saying all this. Okay, so let's break that down a little

478
00:39:41,737 --> 00:39:48,317
bit more because, all right, if we have a debt problem or a collateral problem, even though

479
00:39:48,317 --> 00:39:54,797
we're in $37 trillion worth of debt, and now we have potentially the greatest collateral on planet

480
00:39:54,797 --> 00:39:59,357
earth, this bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody

481
00:39:59,357 --> 00:40:05,357
and off exchanges we all saw what happened last time with the huge blow-offs we had celsius ftx

482
00:40:05,357 --> 00:40:10,237
all of the big dogs blowing up well this time everybody's being smart and holding their bitcoin

483
00:40:10,237 --> 00:40:15,197
in self-custody this is why i'm going with the number one hardware wallet in the game that's

484
00:40:15,197 --> 00:40:21,837
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485
00:40:21,837 --> 00:40:27,117
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486
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487
00:40:32,517 --> 00:40:36,957
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488
00:40:36,957 --> 00:40:41,657
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489
00:40:41,657 --> 00:40:46,877
the affiliate link below. Use promo code GreenCandle. Enough from me. Let's get back to the show.

490
00:40:47,357 --> 00:40:52,557
Is this going to be like more of a savior of the dollar or do we get to that,

491
00:40:52,557 --> 00:41:00,097
you know hyper bitcoinized world eventually i i think this this helps bring in a hyper bitcoinized

492
00:41:00,097 --> 00:41:06,437
world and one of the one of the major tools i see um helping bring this in is a mutual friend of ours

493
00:41:06,437 --> 00:41:13,277
cj um those bitcoin bonds the principal protected notes i look at as a key way to fast forward

494
00:41:13,277 --> 00:41:18,637
um hyper bitcoinization um those principal protected notes i think are going to be

495
00:41:18,637 --> 00:41:21,717
a huge demand driver for Bitcoin.

496
00:41:22,377 --> 00:41:24,857
And I look at this and how they work very briefly is

497
00:41:24,857 --> 00:41:27,537
if you're selling a principal protected note,

498
00:41:27,637 --> 00:41:31,297
you can offer a capital guaranteed Bitcoin bond

499
00:41:31,297 --> 00:41:35,617
where you structure a product where you've got 80% of it

500
00:41:35,617 --> 00:41:39,877
tied to a municipal bond or a US treasury that pays 5%.

501
00:41:39,877 --> 00:41:45,897
And the remaining 20% then goes into buying Bitcoin.

502
00:41:46,397 --> 00:41:48,397
And what you have at the end of the five-year period

503
00:41:48,397 --> 00:41:51,297
if you take what happened in the last five years

504
00:41:51,297 --> 00:41:53,597
and assume it would be the same over the next five years,

505
00:41:54,277 --> 00:41:58,757
that billion-dollar bond with an $800 million allocation to bonds

506
00:41:58,757 --> 00:42:02,997
and $200 million allocation to Bitcoin would be worth $3 billion.

507
00:42:03,537 --> 00:42:07,537
So you've created $2 billion of equity out of effectively nothing,

508
00:42:07,677 --> 00:42:09,317
out of a capital-guaranteed product.

509
00:42:09,557 --> 00:42:12,597
That would give you an annualised return of close to 20%

510
00:42:12,597 --> 00:42:14,077
on a risk-free product.

511
00:42:15,017 --> 00:42:18,057
Now, if you peel the layers back on that, I know, right,

512
00:42:18,057 --> 00:42:19,457
It just sounds crazy.

513
00:42:19,457 --> 00:42:21,157
But if you peel the layers back on this,

514
00:42:21,157 --> 00:42:23,057
the really important part about this is,

515
00:42:23,057 --> 00:42:25,557
is that this becomes the flywheel

516
00:42:25,557 --> 00:42:28,297
that creates escape velocity for hyper-Bitcoinization,

517
00:42:28,297 --> 00:42:31,997
I believe, because there's roughly, call it,

518
00:42:31,997 --> 00:42:35,317
somewhere between $60 to $70 trillion worth of bonds

519
00:42:35,317 --> 00:42:37,417
per annum that need to get refinanced.

520
00:42:38,277 --> 00:42:41,517
Now, if you effectively created

521
00:42:41,517 --> 00:42:44,017
that type of structured product with,

522
00:42:44,017 --> 00:42:45,417
let's say, half of the bonds,

523
00:42:45,417 --> 00:42:48,057
call it $30 trillion worth of bonds a year,

524
00:42:48,237 --> 00:42:50,697
and you put 20% of that into Bitcoin,

525
00:42:51,157 --> 00:42:55,717
you now have demand for $6 trillion worth of Bitcoin purchases per annum,

526
00:42:56,317 --> 00:42:59,657
which would be like finding another 500 Michael Silas.

527
00:43:02,557 --> 00:43:03,577
That's crazy.

528
00:43:03,577 --> 00:43:10,817
What that does to price of Bitcoin is that will mean the CAGR will increase dramatically over the next 10 years

529
00:43:10,817 --> 00:43:15,197
rather than go into the conversation about the declining returns over time.

530
00:43:15,417 --> 00:43:19,577
Absolutely not. I don't want to see that. I'm not ready for declining returns yet.

531
00:43:19,577 --> 00:43:22,777
That's why I want to see these type of products come into place.

532
00:43:22,777 --> 00:43:26,456
I want to see this as a way to recapitalise the banking system.

533
00:43:26,456 --> 00:43:31,017
Ironically, it will lead to strengthening the banking system, not bringing it down.

534
00:43:31,017 --> 00:43:34,137
But unfortunately, Bitcoin is enemies money as well.

535
00:43:34,137 --> 00:43:39,257
So we take the good with the bad. It'd be really great for price appreciation.

536
00:43:39,257 --> 00:43:42,537
It'd be great for hyper-Bitcoinisation. It'd restabilise the banks.

537
00:43:42,537 --> 00:43:44,456
It'd help us pay off all our debts.

538
00:43:44,456 --> 00:43:50,456
within a five-year period here's the crazy thing within a five-year period that 25 trillion dollars

539
00:43:50,456 --> 00:43:55,657
a year that you've put into that you've put into principal protective notes that's taken out five

540
00:43:55,657 --> 00:44:01,657
trillion dollars worth of bitcoin every year in the space of 10 years if we did that on the entire

541
00:44:01,657 --> 00:44:10,857
market could create about three quadrillion dollars worth of equity i mean does that mean

542
00:44:10,857 --> 00:44:15,657
it's all going to go towards bitcoin and all right so we've got three quadra three quadrillions

543
00:44:15,657 --> 00:44:21,897
worth of of equity towards bitcoin well i mean the multiplier effect at this point is you know

544
00:44:21,897 --> 00:44:28,297
anywhere from eight to twenty five percent i think jim eight eight x to twenty five so meaning every

545
00:44:28,857 --> 00:44:35,657
every dollar that goes into bitcoin the market cap increases by eight or 25 on the on the very

546
00:44:35,657 --> 00:44:41,617
volatile times. So then we're looking at, you know, not only just getting well past gold, but,

547
00:44:41,717 --> 00:44:48,217
you know, being the dominant force and potentially taking over all of these other markets. And is

548
00:44:48,217 --> 00:44:53,157
that basically what you potentially foresee with more of these products coming online is like,

549
00:44:53,617 --> 00:44:58,657
hey, we're not just talking about gold as this, the biggest asset. We're looking at the, you know,

550
00:44:58,657 --> 00:45:04,977
$350 trillion real estate market. We're looking at the $300 or $300 trillion global bond market.

551
00:45:04,977 --> 00:45:10,397
all of these things are just going to get swallowed up by Bitcoin and these products are going to be

552
00:45:10,397 --> 00:45:16,417
the reason why I've got no doubt I see it clearly a lot of people think oh that's not possible that's

553
00:45:16,417 --> 00:45:21,617
not going to happen and it's like just just stick around a little while and just watch this all come

554
00:45:21,617 --> 00:45:25,997
to fruition this is the only reason why I talk about this stuff because unless we talk about it

555
00:45:25,997 --> 00:45:31,157
and get that into the zeitgeist we're not going to have these products developed and create the

556
00:45:31,157 --> 00:45:36,657
solutions that we need. But to me, it's clear as day. Because if I take a step back, the number one

557
00:45:36,657 --> 00:45:41,597
problem that we have with our financial system at the moment is that we have Wall Street taking huge

558
00:45:41,597 --> 00:45:48,977
speculative bets on Main Street assets. And so what do I mean by that? We've got the securitization

559
00:45:48,977 --> 00:45:55,057
and monetization of the American housing market, real estate market, both with the residential

560
00:45:55,057 --> 00:45:58,977
mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities. That's effectively a

561
00:45:58,977 --> 00:46:04,377
leverage bet on the US property market. And you then have Wall Street basically betting in the

562
00:46:04,377 --> 00:46:11,517
bond market, betting on the success and failure of US housing, US property. This is where Bitcoin

563
00:46:11,517 --> 00:46:16,897
becomes really interesting because Bitcoin is a wildly volatile asset. And this allows Wall

564
00:46:16,897 --> 00:46:22,577
Street to maintain speculative bets without mainstream consequence. And that is the most

565
00:46:22,577 --> 00:46:28,557
important thing that Bitcoin will deliver the world. This is the divorce of the money printer

566
00:46:28,557 --> 00:46:34,737
government. This is the ability for Wall Street to have its cake and eat it too. They can start

567
00:46:34,737 --> 00:46:43,217
having wild speculation on an asset that has no forbearance or impact on the day-to-day cost of

568
00:46:43,217 --> 00:46:47,537
living and housing affordability. And so what we're going to see is the monetary premium sucked

569
00:46:47,537 --> 00:46:52,317
out of the American housing market. We're going to see the monetary premium sucked out of the US

570
00:46:52,317 --> 00:46:57,537
stock market. And all of that speculative action is going to move into Bitcoin. And this is why I

571
00:46:57,537 --> 00:47:03,097
find it amusing that to me it's clear as day that we're going to see the Bitcoin market be in the

572
00:47:03,097 --> 00:47:08,977
quadrillions of dollars while all the other assets combined may make up a quarter of what's there.

573
00:47:10,277 --> 00:47:17,437
So then it'll be basically Bitcoin 75% of all assets and then 25% and then you know eventually

574
00:47:17,437 --> 00:47:23,277
everything just becomes Bitcoinized at that point right because it's just the behemoth at that point.

575
00:47:23,277 --> 00:47:28,737
correct and obviously at that point in time it starts it really starts leveling out that you

576
00:47:28,737 --> 00:47:34,837
know then we get to the diminishing returns but we've got so much demonetization to swallow in

577
00:47:34,837 --> 00:47:41,477
bitcoin that i think we've got 10 20 years of 60 50 60 70 percent kegers in front of us

578
00:47:41,477 --> 00:47:48,717
and it's crazy to me that that's like looked at as bad it's like hey that's diminishing returns

579
00:47:48,717 --> 00:47:55,517
is like 50 60 70 percent uh keger which you know if you if you crunch the numbers that's you know

580
00:47:55,517 --> 00:48:00,197
that's pretty damn good and that's beating the michael saylor prediction of you know 21

581
00:48:00,197 --> 00:48:08,237
i think he said what 21 million in 21 years like a 21 keger um so he sees it as more of

582
00:48:08,237 --> 00:48:13,357
you know diminishing returns and and you know i i think it's interesting the way you put it because

583
00:48:13,357 --> 00:48:21,017
I really do think that when we look at the way that Bitcoin has developed and we look at Bitcoin

584
00:48:21,017 --> 00:48:27,817
just on surface level, the fixed 21 million supply, let's call it 18 and a half million with all the

585
00:48:27,817 --> 00:48:33,777
lost coins and Satoshi and everything else, that scarcity that we have, we've never seen a

586
00:48:33,777 --> 00:48:40,456
financial-based product for it. And it's seemingly like the debt market is infinite. So I don't see

587
00:48:40,456 --> 00:48:48,077
how this diminishing returns sort of hubbub could actually come to light because of that.

588
00:48:48,297 --> 00:48:50,937
Because eventually we're going to hit what?

589
00:48:51,277 --> 00:48:53,997
An infinite at a certain point in time.

590
00:48:54,517 --> 00:49:00,097
And so if we've got all that, we've got Trump and the US actually announcing that they want

591
00:49:00,097 --> 00:49:05,837
to borrow another $1.5 trillion within the next two quarters towards the end of this

592
00:49:05,837 --> 00:49:06,177
year.

593
00:49:06,177 --> 00:49:16,956
I mean, if you look at the global M2 money supply, and if you look at the amount that the government spends, Bitcoin price is pretty correlated with that.

594
00:49:17,077 --> 00:49:18,897
And both of those seem to always go up.

595
00:49:19,357 --> 00:49:23,217
So I think at a certain point in time, something's going to crack.

596
00:49:23,397 --> 00:49:29,397
But is there anything that you look at in particular to see as this money starting to flow into Bitcoin?

597
00:49:29,557 --> 00:49:33,517
Or is it kind of like accumulation of all of these things I'm just lining out here?

598
00:49:33,697 --> 00:49:36,077
No, I think you're perfectly correct in that.

599
00:49:36,177 --> 00:49:37,977
I think it's death by a thousand paper cuts.

600
00:49:38,677 --> 00:49:40,877
Now, people are going to get it when they get it.

601
00:49:40,977 --> 00:49:43,797
But at some point in time, it becomes irrefutable,

602
00:49:43,917 --> 00:49:45,197
the evidence before your eyes.

603
00:49:45,917 --> 00:49:51,037
And to talk about sailors' expectation of $21 million a coin

604
00:49:51,037 --> 00:49:56,337
in 21 years, I would pair that with the greatest of respect

605
00:49:56,337 --> 00:49:57,137
to Michael.

606
00:49:57,737 --> 00:50:02,937
He's the chairman of a $100 billion company and needs to stay

607
00:50:02,937 --> 00:50:07,417
within a range of acceptable limits from an Overton window perspective.

608
00:50:07,817 --> 00:50:13,456
So I think he may be on the low end of that expectation over the next few years by looking

609
00:50:13,456 --> 00:50:14,897
at some very conservative assumptions.

610
00:50:14,897 --> 00:50:20,177
And this is where I think he's doing a great job in moving that Overton window forward

611
00:50:20,177 --> 00:50:25,917
dramatically that now all of a sudden people are discussing in sincere terms the possibility

612
00:50:25,917 --> 00:50:27,197
of a $21 million Bitcoin.

613
00:50:27,197 --> 00:50:32,717
whereas until the CEO of a hundred billion dollar company started talking about it you know it

614
00:50:32,717 --> 00:50:39,557
didn't seem possible so huge huge hat tip to Michael in in moving that over to window forward

615
00:50:39,557 --> 00:50:48,257
yeah and he seemed to you know more so like move his uh I guess like bullish expectations

616
00:50:48,257 --> 00:50:54,017
up like he he keeps increasing his price predictions every single time it seems like

617
00:50:54,017 --> 00:50:55,017
he goes on stage.

618
00:50:55,017 --> 00:50:59,897
So I wouldn't be surprised if we come back next year and we see him at Prague or on Vegas

619
00:50:59,897 --> 00:51:05,197
and one of these things and give a speech as to why he thinks Bitcoin is going to, you

620
00:51:05,197 --> 00:51:10,257
know, 210 million opposed to just 21 million at a certain point in time, right?

621
00:51:10,817 --> 00:51:26,755
It always moves up Let me tell you probably the most famous person in the space prior to michael would have been kathy wood from a a tradfire perspective and you know i watch kathy um who i think is

622
00:51:26,755 --> 00:51:32,195
absolutely brilliant move her move her expectations for bitcoin dramatically forward and i think her

623
00:51:32,195 --> 00:51:37,075
optimistic outlook now is that one bitcoin we won the half million dollars of coin in 2030.

624
00:51:37,075 --> 00:51:41,355
but i can assure you a few years ago it wasn't it wasn't that ambitious

625
00:51:41,355 --> 00:51:47,735
and i think all these price predictions are just getting higher and higher and higher too

626
00:51:47,735 --> 00:51:53,655
and it's like at a certain point how can you not i mean um you know with the current economic

627
00:51:53,655 --> 00:51:58,435
situation we haven't even talked about that because um you know we've got an interesting

628
00:51:58,435 --> 00:52:03,995
political theater is what i'll call it right now between trump and powell where trump has talked

629
00:52:03,995 --> 00:52:10,515
about he's going to potentially fire him and all this and that you know powell is seemingly going

630
00:52:10,515 --> 00:52:17,135
to hold strong tomorrow we're recording this the day before the july fomc meeting but you know if

631
00:52:17,135 --> 00:52:21,675
you look at the cme group there's about a two percent chance that they actually cut interest

632
00:52:21,675 --> 00:52:28,275
rates tomorrow so you know how would you describe i guess the overall just macro economic environment

633
00:52:28,275 --> 00:52:34,795
right now and the role that bitcoin's kind of playing in it right now i think i think we're in

634
00:52:34,795 --> 00:52:44,715
a very unique time there's a whole host of i guess economic experiments taking place before

635
00:52:44,715 --> 00:52:50,355
our very eyes and if you read the textbooks you read casein or were a subscriber to keynesian

636
00:52:50,355 --> 00:52:57,155
economics you would see that all of these tariffs and the economic games that are being played by

637
00:52:57,155 --> 00:53:03,535
the administration, we're going to be extremely detrimental to the American consumer and would

638
00:53:03,535 --> 00:53:10,075
unbalance trade. It would lead to a hugely negative connotation and impact to the American economy.

639
00:53:10,735 --> 00:53:15,475
And what we've seen is we've seen Trump basically tip the board upside down,

640
00:53:16,095 --> 00:53:21,435
create all these new tariffs, and it seems to have had little to no impact on the American

641
00:53:21,435 --> 00:53:26,295
consumer and the American economy at large. So I look at this and think, well, isn't that

642
00:53:26,295 --> 00:53:31,695
interesting. We're now in a new paradigm where traditional wisdom in economics is no longer

643
00:53:31,695 --> 00:53:37,795
dictating what the policy should be. And we have an administration who's trying things that have

644
00:53:37,795 --> 00:53:43,175
never been done before. So I find it endlessly fascinating, the economic situation at this point

645
00:53:43,175 --> 00:53:48,495
in time. I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the doomers say. And I actually think we're in

646
00:53:48,495 --> 00:53:53,615
a quite strong economic position right now. We've had rates at 5% for nearly the last three years.

647
00:53:53,615 --> 00:53:56,275
and the economy's still kicking.

648
00:53:56,835 --> 00:53:58,275
So people are still spending money

649
00:53:58,275 --> 00:54:02,135
and yes, housing markets sort of gone by the by,

650
00:54:02,235 --> 00:54:04,155
but that kind of had to happen anyway

651
00:54:04,155 --> 00:54:07,295
because it was such an unproductive use of resources

652
00:54:07,295 --> 00:54:07,955
and investment.

653
00:54:09,095 --> 00:54:12,155
I think this sounds wildly unpopular,

654
00:54:12,275 --> 00:54:16,895
but I think Powell's done Bitcoin as a huge, huge service

655
00:54:16,895 --> 00:54:19,075
that when interest rates are at 5%,

656
00:54:19,075 --> 00:54:21,675
housing affordability becomes very tough.

657
00:54:21,675 --> 00:54:27,915
the property market prices need to drop speculative investment in that in that asset class is going to

658
00:54:27,915 --> 00:54:34,915
drop dramatically and here we are despite bitcoin um you know saying that it was a it was only good

659
00:54:34,915 --> 00:54:41,395
in zero zero rate policy here we are with rates at five percent for the last three years and

660
00:54:41,395 --> 00:54:46,115
bitcoins at all-time highs why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece of paper

661
00:54:46,115 --> 00:54:51,895
It doesn't make sense. You need a foolproof solution and I've got it for you. You could get

662
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663
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664
00:55:04,335 --> 00:55:10,495
crypto steel to offer for you guys just that it is the cheapest and most secure way to store your

665
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C phrase. I don't know about you guys, but I don't have too many things where I think one ton

666
00:55:16,035 --> 00:55:23,035
is going to fall on this, but it could survive all of that and more. So go to CryptoSteel.com.

667
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668
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So go ahead and protect your generational wealth and do it with CryptoSteel. All right,

669
00:55:35,855 --> 00:55:42,175
enough from me back to the show i look at that and think ha isn't that interesting all the experts

670
00:55:42,175 --> 00:55:49,315
were wrong again yeah it definitely is very interesting to see all that because everybody

671
00:55:49,315 --> 00:55:53,175
was saying hey you know what pow is going to cut interest rates everything's going to be fine

672
00:55:53,175 --> 00:55:59,115
but the the way that you know i feel like just the cutting of the interest rates when it happens

673
00:55:59,115 --> 00:56:04,715
right that's just going to accelerate bitcoin's growth and everything every other asset class

674
00:56:04,715 --> 00:56:07,255
has just been kind of lagging except for Bitcoin.

675
00:56:07,875 --> 00:56:10,095
So I know we kind of talked about at the beginning of the show,

676
00:56:10,155 --> 00:56:12,575
hey, you know, why isn't the price moving as much?

677
00:56:12,975 --> 00:56:15,575
I feel like once we kind of like, you know,

678
00:56:15,895 --> 00:56:19,235
get that money printer going, that's when all bets are off

679
00:56:19,235 --> 00:56:21,575
because we have so much buying pressure already

680
00:56:21,575 --> 00:56:23,715
from all of these, you know, companies.

681
00:56:23,955 --> 00:56:27,775
Once rates get lower for them to borrow and obtain debt

682
00:56:27,775 --> 00:56:31,555
to, you know, buy more Bitcoin and then just on a personal level,

683
00:56:32,035 --> 00:56:34,615
or do you think people are going to start to flock into

684
00:56:34,615 --> 00:56:41,595
other assets like you know maybe it'll help out the uh let's call it the global bond market or

685
00:56:41,595 --> 00:56:47,575
help out the real estate market um or people just looking for those bigger returns and and bitcoin

686
00:56:47,575 --> 00:56:54,415
seems to be the only only answer there's a lot in that question and probably to finish off on the

687
00:56:54,415 --> 00:56:59,315
previous question around what's happening economically the thing that i have trouble

688
00:56:59,315 --> 00:57:04,315
within traditional finance is that none of the figures that we look at have any meaning.

689
00:57:05,035 --> 00:57:10,415
And what do I mean by that is we've got GDP figures which tell us how well the economy is growing.

690
00:57:10,555 --> 00:57:14,155
We've got inflation rates which tell us how much more we've got to pay for our goods.

691
00:57:14,695 --> 00:57:22,155
And we've got future forecasts on unemployment numbers that get re-rated after the fact.

692
00:57:22,155 --> 00:57:26,355
I look at this and I think there are three key economic indicators we look at for the health of the economy.

693
00:57:26,355 --> 00:57:30,555
and those institutions have been politicized

694
00:57:30,555 --> 00:57:34,575
to create a narrative that the politicians can go to the polls with.

695
00:57:34,895 --> 00:57:37,895
So I look at that and think traditional economic metrics

696
00:57:37,895 --> 00:57:39,575
are completely out the window now.

697
00:57:40,155 --> 00:57:42,815
They're of zero use in a Bitcoin world

698
00:57:42,815 --> 00:57:46,075
and this is where fast-tracking the adoption of Bitcoin,

699
00:57:46,215 --> 00:57:47,415
hyper-Bitcoinizing the world,

700
00:57:47,555 --> 00:57:49,295
whether that's through the Bitcoin treasury companies

701
00:57:49,295 --> 00:57:52,755
or through personal investment in Bitcoin and self-custody

702
00:57:52,755 --> 00:57:55,235
and having all of these products around it,

703
00:57:55,235 --> 00:57:58,615
I think is the only way that we get through this problem that we've got right now.

704
00:57:58,955 --> 00:58:07,115
And the opportunity I see and the people I speak to is, you know, they're sitting on millions, if not tens of millions of dollars of property, real estate.

705
00:58:08,055 --> 00:58:09,635
And they don't want to hold this anymore.

706
00:58:09,935 --> 00:58:12,235
They're looking at this with interest rates at 5%.

707
00:58:12,235 --> 00:58:13,655
Property is no longer affordable.

708
00:58:14,015 --> 00:58:15,315
It's no longer a great investment.

709
00:58:15,875 --> 00:58:18,615
And yes, when interest rates drop, they'll obviously be the initial kick.

710
00:58:18,715 --> 00:58:23,635
But have we reached terminal capacity for debt and the repayment of debt in our society?

711
00:58:23,635 --> 00:58:25,695
I kind of get the feeling we are.

712
00:58:25,835 --> 00:58:29,135
And the only way to do that is to inflate the way out of the problem.

713
00:58:29,815 --> 00:58:32,075
Now, the only way to inflate the way out of the problem

714
00:58:32,075 --> 00:58:36,615
without having downstream impact on cost of housing,

715
00:58:36,855 --> 00:58:39,695
cost of living, is to inflate the Bitcoin bubble.

716
00:58:40,595 --> 00:58:44,835
So just send that thing to a quadrillion dollars total market cap

717
00:58:44,835 --> 00:58:47,435
and there's no downstream consequence to it

718
00:58:47,435 --> 00:58:49,515
because everyone wants to hold Bitcoin.

719
00:58:50,055 --> 00:58:51,375
They don't want the other assets.

720
00:58:51,375 --> 00:58:59,315
So this is sort of a theme I've talked on today is it's really important to divorce Wall Street speculation from Main Street consequence.

721
00:59:00,075 --> 00:59:05,295
This allows everyone to speculate on Bitcoin, demonetizes all of the asset classes that we've got.

722
00:59:05,795 --> 00:59:07,595
Ironically, it wouldn't demonetize them at all.

723
00:59:07,735 --> 00:59:08,735
They'd just stay the same.

724
00:59:08,835 --> 00:59:12,275
It'd be like watching the Japanese economy for the last 30 years.

725
00:59:12,355 --> 00:59:14,475
It's basically flatlined from 30 years ago.

726
00:59:14,555 --> 00:59:17,055
It hasn't gone anywhere over a 30-year period.

727
00:59:17,055 --> 00:59:21,275
It just means that for the next 30 years, property is going to go nowhere.

728
00:59:21,375 --> 00:59:25,635
stocks are really going to go nowhere but bitcoin's going to go up a thousand times

729
00:59:25,635 --> 00:59:34,355
oh man peter can you get me more bullish i mean my goodness man with all of this i mean i just see

730
00:59:34,355 --> 00:59:40,315
it everything just kind of scooting over towards bitcoin and it's happening quick and so you you

731
00:59:40,315 --> 00:59:45,415
saying all you know the 10 to 15 years diminished returns man i feel like i'm like kathy wood and

732
00:59:45,415 --> 00:59:49,855
michael saylor i think i'm gonna have to revise that and say it's gonna go come a little bit

733
00:59:49,855 --> 00:59:54,495
quicker with with all of this but i think it's it's unique like all of these products that we're

734
00:59:54,495 --> 00:59:59,775
starting to come on online as well i know that you guys at the bitcoin advisor are cooking up

735
00:59:59,775 --> 01:00:05,375
something here so i want to hear about uh what you guys are up to and what you guys are uh i guess

736
01:00:05,375 --> 01:00:10,895
seeing and uh yeah i mean tell me tell me how everything's going with with uh you guys just

737
01:00:10,895 --> 01:00:17,375
being in the bitcoin space during this craziness that we have uh going on you know what there

738
01:00:17,375 --> 01:00:27,475
Every day I get up and I've got to say, I'm very fortunate that I get to help a whole host of people move their net worth into Bitcoin.

739
01:00:28,275 --> 01:00:31,015
And there's a great deal of satisfaction to that.

740
01:00:31,015 --> 01:00:41,055
And the conversations we're having is with quite wealthy baby boomers would be our most typical client.

741
01:00:41,475 --> 01:00:45,175
And we have deep conversations about their property portfolio, their stock portfolio.

742
01:00:45,175 --> 01:00:48,655
and without giving them a nudge,

743
01:00:48,735 --> 01:00:51,355
these are conclusions that they've reached on their own

744
01:00:51,355 --> 01:00:52,935
by listening to podcasts like yours.

745
01:00:53,315 --> 01:00:55,595
They realize that, hey, there's a limited upside

746
01:00:55,595 --> 01:00:56,615
to holding this property.

747
01:00:57,295 --> 01:00:59,875
And unfortunately, there is a whole host of liability

748
01:00:59,875 --> 01:01:01,555
attached to that asset as well.

749
01:01:02,155 --> 01:01:04,395
And a lot of people are having that shift

750
01:01:04,395 --> 01:01:06,415
from traditional assets into Bitcoin

751
01:01:06,415 --> 01:01:08,195
because they don't want the headache,

752
01:01:08,355 --> 01:01:10,175
they don't want the cost, they don't want the liability,

753
01:01:10,635 --> 01:01:12,675
they don't want the headaches from tenants calling them

754
01:01:12,675 --> 01:01:13,855
in the all hours.

755
01:01:13,855 --> 01:01:17,435
they don't want to have to be responsible for the maintenance of the property they might be on the

756
01:01:17,435 --> 01:01:21,715
other side of the world you know cruising the mediterranean they're getting calls on having

757
01:01:21,715 --> 01:01:26,915
to fix someone's toilet it's like what on earth is going on i thought i finished the financial game

758
01:01:26,915 --> 01:01:32,695
and they realized that these assets that they used to look at as trophies are really a noose around

759
01:01:32,695 --> 01:01:36,875
the neck it's a heavy load to bear and they don't want to do that anymore what's an asset that they

760
01:01:36,875 --> 01:01:40,935
can just go on holidays and not have to worry about what's an asset that doesn't have land tax

761
01:01:40,935 --> 01:01:47,835
associated to it? What's an asset that allows the monetization of this asset class? And I think

762
01:01:47,835 --> 01:01:53,195
there's a thousand X return over the next 20 years in it. Sadly, there's not that type of monetization

763
01:01:53,195 --> 01:01:59,395
or capitalization rates available in Bitcoin, in anything but Bitcoin. Property's not going to do

764
01:01:59,395 --> 01:02:05,455
it. Stocks aren't going to do it. We've got most of the American, the US stock markets trading at

765
01:02:05,455 --> 01:02:08,455
an average of about 23, 24 times price earnings ratio.

766
01:02:09,295 --> 01:02:10,635
That is insane.

767
01:02:11,355 --> 01:02:13,295
How is that good value?

768
01:02:14,155 --> 01:02:16,535
You know, one of the craziest examples on this

769
01:02:16,535 --> 01:02:19,255
of just how out of whack the world is right now

770
01:02:19,255 --> 01:02:21,755
is, you know, Warren Buffett, God love him.

771
01:02:21,935 --> 01:02:26,235
I wish he'd love Bitcoin, but he might die before he gets it.

772
01:02:26,535 --> 01:02:27,135
I hope not.

773
01:02:27,195 --> 01:02:28,955
I'd love to see him as a Bitcoin bull.

774
01:02:29,035 --> 01:02:30,655
There'd be nothing better for Bitcoin than that.

775
01:02:31,175 --> 01:02:34,375
But I look at this and think, you know,

776
01:02:34,375 --> 01:02:38,695
he was buying coca-cola at a price earnings ratio of six to seven times back in the 80s

777
01:02:39,415 --> 01:02:42,935
that thing during covert was trading at a 30 times price earnings multiple

778
01:02:45,735 --> 01:02:46,775
doesn't make any sense

779
01:02:50,135 --> 01:02:56,135
i mean it's just just i warren buffett has always been late to everything i mean can we just

780
01:02:56,135 --> 01:03:02,375
agree upon that i mean he was late to what apple he was saying apple was the worst company and now

781
01:03:02,375 --> 01:03:07,735
he's saying bitcoin is this and that i mean it seems like he's always been very you know i guess

782
01:03:07,735 --> 01:03:12,135
slow moving when these things but you know he goes by the benjamin graham the you know price

783
01:03:12,135 --> 01:03:16,855
to earnings ratio all of those things i mean it seems like those valuations and everything are

784
01:03:16,855 --> 01:03:23,415
just dead and he's just got the massive amounts of cash that he has and you know he was in the

785
01:03:23,415 --> 01:03:28,935
valuation where he was using the data before everybody else well now the market seems a little

786
01:03:28,935 --> 01:03:35,655
bit more crazy when when we have all this money and liquidity in here so is warren buffett you

787
01:03:35,655 --> 01:03:40,135
know will he ever get it i don't know but at this point in time it's just it seems like value

788
01:03:40,135 --> 01:03:47,175
investing is dead but you can look at it on the flip side of things bitcoin value investing or

789
01:03:47,175 --> 01:03:52,375
meets all of the value investing principles i mean that's actually how i how i really got orange

790
01:03:52,375 --> 01:03:57,975
pilled is i was listening to preston pish that we study billionaires and he was breaking down the

791
01:03:57,975 --> 01:04:02,615
you know, the value investing principles. And he would talk about this and they would talk about

792
01:04:02,615 --> 01:04:07,355
various companies, how they're just so overvalued. And then, you know, he was like, well, if you kind

793
01:04:07,355 --> 01:04:12,075
of just break it down, simple supply and demand with Bitcoin, and we're seeing the demand just

794
01:04:12,075 --> 01:04:18,435
skyrocket up and it's insane. And of course, we've got the limited supply. I mean, it's just a matter

795
01:04:18,435 --> 01:04:23,995
of time to me before this bubble just starts to pop. I couldn't agree more. And it's funny talking

796
01:04:23,995 --> 01:04:29,075
about um warren buffett as an industry stalwart another industry stalwart that's been in the news

797
01:04:29,075 --> 01:04:35,035
in the last couple of days has been ray dalio and he he came out i'm not sure if you saw this

798
01:04:35,035 --> 01:04:40,235
with the 15 recommendation on a portfolio allocation to gold and bitcoin

799
01:04:40,235 --> 01:04:50,335
yeah he did i saw that it's insane so i've got to say i was so amused to read this because

800
01:04:50,335 --> 01:04:55,235
to give you some background about six years ago I gave a presentation to one of the families that

801
01:04:55,235 --> 01:05:04,175
we looked after and I cited Ray Dalio as as one of his linchpins for investment was he talked about

802
01:05:04,175 --> 01:05:09,915
finding 15 diverse investments that are not correlated to each other and and basically

803
01:05:09,915 --> 01:05:15,175
do those and I said according to Ray Dalio's principles he's he's a bitcoiner he just doesn't

804
01:05:15,175 --> 01:05:19,835
know it yet. And the response I got from the families that I discussed that with was just,

805
01:05:20,155 --> 01:05:24,735
I was nearly laughed out of the room. They're like, oh, as if he's a Bitcoiner, like, you know,

806
01:05:24,775 --> 01:05:29,655
you're just drawing conclusions that just aren't there. And it's extremely satisfying to watch six

807
01:05:29,655 --> 01:05:34,535
years down the track, maybe a little bit longer after that presentation, Ray Dalio literally

808
01:05:34,535 --> 01:05:41,015
coming out and saying, yeah, everyone should have 15% of their investments allocated to Bitcoin and

809
01:05:41,015 --> 01:05:48,515
go. Well, the sad part is, Peter, is you remember that. I hope that they did, but I have a feeling

810
01:05:48,515 --> 01:05:52,835
that they all just kind of let it go over in one ear, out the other. Because that's, I mean,

811
01:05:52,875 --> 01:05:57,515
that's the kind of vibe I've always gotten from people when I try to explain to them in Bitcoin

812
01:05:57,515 --> 01:06:02,215
is, you know, you need those multiple touch points. And maybe that was one for them. Maybe

813
01:06:02,215 --> 01:06:05,775
you convinced them. I'm sure you did convince some of these people, but the ones that were

814
01:06:05,775 --> 01:06:11,175
laughing to you about Ray Dalio, man, I mean, maybe they're there right now, or maybe this is

815
01:06:11,175 --> 01:06:14,915
just another touch point for them. And then hopefully they'll start to get Bitcoin. I don't

816
01:06:14,915 --> 01:06:19,295
know if I've ever told you about one of my best friends from back home who told me about Bitcoin

817
01:06:19,295 --> 01:06:26,615
in 2012 and still hasn't bought it to this day. But it always seems like people get it at the

818
01:06:26,615 --> 01:06:32,835
price that they deserve. It's so true. And I think all Bitcoin has suffered the same fate.

819
01:06:32,835 --> 01:06:34,515
a prophet has no honor in his hometown.

820
01:06:35,235 --> 01:06:37,815
So sadly, those that we love the most

821
01:06:37,815 --> 01:06:39,555
are going to be the most reluctant

822
01:06:39,555 --> 01:06:40,735
to hear the message from us.

823
01:06:41,115 --> 01:06:43,795
And we can only put other people in front of them

824
01:06:43,795 --> 01:06:45,815
in the hope that that message sticks

825
01:06:45,815 --> 01:06:46,855
and they become a Bitcorner

826
01:06:46,855 --> 01:06:48,475
and join us on this journey.

827
01:06:49,735 --> 01:06:50,135
Exactly.

828
01:06:50,295 --> 01:06:52,375
Well, Peter, you're always generous with your time

829
01:06:52,375 --> 01:06:54,215
and I really appreciate you coming on.

830
01:06:54,475 --> 01:06:56,455
I believe this is like the third or fourth time now.

831
01:06:56,455 --> 01:06:58,515
So we've had some banging episodes

832
01:06:58,515 --> 01:07:00,295
and I feel like I learned something new from you

833
01:07:00,295 --> 01:07:02,675
and I get more bullish every time I talk to you.

834
01:07:02,835 --> 01:07:07,695
So why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and more about the Bitcoin Advisor?

835
01:07:07,695 --> 01:07:14,235
Sure thing. You can reach me at PeterBTCAdvisor with an E-R on X.

836
01:07:14,855 --> 01:07:19,735
You can reach me at TheBitcoinAdvisor.com on the internet.

837
01:07:20,355 --> 01:07:31,875
And if you're interested about borrowing on your Bitcoin for probably the most perfect use case I've seen for this loan product that we've just put together is for the Bitcoin treasury companies.

838
01:07:31,875 --> 01:07:39,415
you can find more information at loanmycoins.com and i think it's a very unique product that

839
01:07:39,415 --> 01:07:43,655
a lot of people who are wanting to take advantage of their equity in their bitcoin and

840
01:07:43,655 --> 01:07:48,955
invest in bitcoin treasury companies will be able to benefit from so brandon i always have the best

841
01:07:48,955 --> 01:07:53,135
time catching up with you so i appreciate you having me and hope we can do it again soon

842
01:07:53,135 --> 01:07:58,875
of course you're a legend and i'll put all that in the show notes i encourage you guys all to check

843
01:07:58,875 --> 01:08:04,395
out peter and the bitcoin advisor because this man one of the best to do it in this space thank

844
01:08:04,395 --> 01:08:09,155
you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the state of bitcoin podcast if you

845
01:08:09,155 --> 01:08:13,255
found some value in this one please hit that subscribe button and that like button to help

846
01:08:13,255 --> 01:08:17,575
send this one to the masses and i've got a surprise for you guys i've got two more episodes that you

847
01:08:17,575 --> 01:08:22,235
have the chance to watch here so go ahead and click one of them and i'll see you guys all at the next one