There's three levels to wealth creation.
So level one is you don't have any knowledge of how the financial system works.
You go to your job, you earn an income, and you save in dollars.
Level two is you know that the currency is going to lose value.
So you go to a job or you start a business, and the income you produce,
you save it in assets, either Bitcoin, equities, real estate, whatever.
Level three, and this is where I've tried to position myself this year.
Something that happened really recently as well as Jack Mahler's, his account got frozen at Chase Bank.
How do you view this whole situation between JP Morgan and MSTR?
I think JP Morgan is positioning themselves to launch their own competitive product.
Basically, products that would compete with MicroStrategy's preferred equity.
Now, on the big print, I think the last thing I want, and I know he doesn't want this either, is hyperinflation.
And I absolutely do not want that, even though it would probably send Bitcoin to $10 million.
There's a quote from an early 20th century judge,
and he said, there's two systems of taxation, one for the educated and one for the uneducated.
So long story short, Bitcoin...
candle content. So make sure that you're hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification
so you get notified every time I drop a video. All right, now let's get back into this great
interview. Bing bong, I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where
I've got the man, the myth, the legend, Mitchell Askew, also known as Mitchell Hoddle on X.
This is his second time back on the pod. It's been a minute, but Mitchell, there's so much going on
right now with strategy and JP Morgan and the potential of a coordinated attack.
And then today we're recording this on Tuesday. I believe it is December 9th and 21 is actually
set to go public today. So there's a lot going on here. But do you think that the banks are seeing
some sort of, I guess, let's call it way to attack Bitcoin through micro strategy and strategy here
because they're losing control. How do you view this whole situation between JP Morgan and MSTR?
I think JP Morgan is positioning themselves to launch their own competitive product,
which we saw them file for basically a levered version of iBit recently. And I fully expect them
to go further down that route and offer basically products that would compete with MicroStrategy's
preferred equity, some sort of Bitcoin-backed credit. JP Morgan, they're an authorized participant
within the Bitcoin ETFs. They may vocally posture themselves as anti-Bitcoin, but they're certainly
positioning themselves to benefit financially from Bitcoin. So I think any hostility towards
strategy is simply a competitive business tactic. Yeah, but it's interesting because they did launch
that like Bitcoin bond type of preferred stock offering, which is essentially just a direct
competitor to what strategy is doing. But they released a new price prediction. I believe it was
like 170K, maybe 150, somewhere in there. And part of the reasoning that they cited was strategy's
resilience with all of this. So I feel like they're sort of playing the media in a sense.
So do you still think that, I mean, even with as big as the banks are,
even though people are starting to wake up to the fact that, you know,
the banking system is corrupt, that they still have kind of a finger hold on the media
and they're able to control the narratives around all these things?
Absolutely. I mean, what's the number one way to have power?
It's to have money. And who has the most money? It's the banking system.
And so, yeah, absolutely.
They're going to be able to pull strings within traditional financial media to get a certain narrative across.
And if it wasn't for people like you, Brandon, and other independent Bitcoin content creators and the free speech platform of X and Rumble, I'm not sure we'd have nearly enough information to get kind of a complete picture.
Yeah, I mean, hey, thanks, man.
You're doing a great job yourself as well.
So don't just give me all the credit here.
But I mean, we're coming to you live here at the opening bell, just about that time of 21 going public.
Now, I think you did an interesting piece about all of the connections here.
So why don't you dive into that?
What do you think of 21?
Do you think that they're going to be able to reach the goal of actually beating strategy?
Because I think right now, strategy has 660,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
The next closest has $50,000.
So do you think that they're going to able to do what they're setting out to do
and take over that number one spot as top Bitcoin holder on the balance sheet?
I think there is a possibility.
I think it's a greater than 0% chance for any other company.
I would say it's a 0% chance.
I don't think it's necessarily likely.
I would give it maybe a 10% to 20% likelihood.
But I do think it's possible.
If there's any company that can do it, it would be 21%.
And there's four major players involved in 21.
You have Cantor, Tether, SoftBank, and Jack Maulers.
Now, Jack Maulers is mostly the face of the company.
I'm a huge fan of Jack Maulers, and I don't think they could have picked a better face.
He's very skilled at articulating Bitcoin.
He's already built one of the most successful Bitcoin exchanges.
And he's also worked with nation states previously.
He's pretty much the primary reason El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender four years ago.
But the three other players, Cantor, they're a primary dealer with the Fed. So they're directly
buying and selling the US government debt with the Federal Reserve. You have Tether,
who is the 17th largest holder of US treasuries, and they're quickly rising the ranks there.
They're the fastest growing source of treasury demand. And when we zoom out big picture macro,
what's the problem? There's $39 trillion in debt. The United States is running out of entities to
buy their debt. So you can see where they're going to want to ally with someone like Tether
under the fact that foreign countries aren't buying the US debt anymore.
Large scale banks after Silicon Valley Bank went under for holding too many US treasuries,
they're a little bit susceptible to not buying as many treasuries. And then the only other
large scale treasury buyer would be pension funds that are mandated to do so. And then the third
partner would be SoftBank. And this is where I think it all gets very, very interesting because
I had, I'd never heard of SoftBank. They're domiciled in Japan. So as I started researching
them, I realized earlier this year, they went into a public private partnership with the United
States government on an AI infrastructure project. And that's its own rabbit hole, but it's Stargate,
OpenAI, Oracle, and then an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. And so this really sets a precedent
that this entity in particular is willing to work directly with the government. Now, AI is one
avenue that the government has certainly a vested interest in making the United States the leader
in, right? You wouldn't want a competitive nation like China or Russia to lead in AI.
Another industry, you would want the government to lead. If you are the United States government,
you want to be the leader in Bitcoin. And they've been more than vocal about this over the past two
years. So knowing that SoftBank is already willing to work with the government directly
on a partnership, I wouldn't say it's too far-fetched to conclude that 21 might be headed
that direction. Cantor's former CEO is now the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick.
Obviously, Tether has this really tight relationship with the US Treasury being one of the largest
buyers of US debt. And I think all the pieces of the puzzle, you start to put it together,
It's very interesting. And I think 21 is going to likely become some sort of like quasi-public-private institution.
Yeah, let's keep diving into that because I think there is like kind of a unique connection between the government, Tether, and, you know, Howard Lovenick and Kenner Fitzgerald.
I mean, outside of the obvious one where, you know, Howard Lovenick directly left Kenner Fitzgerald to go to the government.
But there's also Bo Hines, who directly left the government to go help work with Tether.
So it seems like they're all very intertwined with each other.
And so how would this, I guess, public partnership kind of look in your opinion?
Would it be something like Intel, where 21 would be potentially stacking for that Bitcoin strategic reserve?
or would there be some other incentive outside of the Bitcoin on the balance sheet play
that the government would want to partner with 21?
I think it's two primary objectives they want to achieve here.
One would be accumulating Bitcoin for the strategic reserve for sure.
And then second would be to promote more treasury demand.
So all year long, the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, has been trying to pull different levers to get the long-term interest rates down.
Because if you have $39 trillion in debt, you do not want to be refinancing that at high interest rates, right?
You want to get the interest rates down.
They tried to cut spending at the federal level with Doge.
They tried tariffs to raise capital immediately to kind of alleviate the deficit.
They've been jawboning the bond market and Jerome Powell all year long trying to get rates down.
None of it has really worked. The 10-year rate is still above 4%.
And so what I'm envisioning would be 21, given Cantor's position as a primary dealer with the Fed,
Tether's relationship with the Treasury, I would expect them to issue some sort of Bitcoin-backed credit instrument.
MicroStrategy has already basically done the proof of concept for this with their preferred equities.
I would imagine it looking something like a bundled note that has either a five-year treasury or a 10-year treasury note plus some amount of Bitcoin.
So if you're a lender, you would be willing to accept a lower interest rate on that note compared to the 10-year because there would be some sort of embedded Bitcoin upside that would likely get split between 21.
And that would be their balance sheet asset.
And then it would go back to the investor at the end of the term.
And then so the government is now basically tapping into new pools of demand to bring that demand ultimately to the treasury market, right? Because what 21 would do when they issue these notes is they would take a majority of that capital, go buy 10-year treasuries or 20-year treasuries or whatever, and then buy a little bit of Bitcoin.
And from an investor's perspective, you're getting the security of AA, AAA rated treasury notes with Bitcoin upside.
The government gets a new source of treasury demand and 21 gets to stack Bitcoin.
This is all speculation and there's no hard evidence to prove that they're going to do this.
But this, I believe, given the players involved, is probably of a high likelihood that they do some sort of instrument like this.
Yeah, and I think it's interesting, too, when you look at, you know, the stable coins, how the U.S. government really made an effort to pass the Genius Act.
That was the first kind of policy that they went in.
And, you know, I've been covering it a lot on how I think the potential of, you know, utilizing Tether and Circle, because these are essentially the only two players that they have in stable coins.
You know, utilizing these guys is almost like backdoor CBDCs in a sense, or at least the ability to control them.
I mean, Tether and Circle have already frozen accounts before and already worked pretty closely with the government.
So they have close ties.
And then, I mean, I think it is kind of quote unquote genius in a sense where they've been essentially seeing the decline of, you know, governments around the world for U.S. debt.
You know, nobody's buying up U.S. Treasuries.
They're actually selling it off.
But who else could potentially start to scoop up some of that lost demand?
And it would be stable coins because, you know, at the end of the day, everybody wants the U.S. dollar, especially if you're in countries like Argentina, Turkey, you know, the Zimbabwe is where, you know, your currency just isn't as as poorly.
And checkmate kind of opened my eyes to this. And it's essentially, you know, the poor countries then funding the U.S. Ponzi scheme to keep going on.
So I think it's, you know, still a dynamic that has been around forever.
It's just now we're putting it digitally and doing it on the blockchain, so to speak.
So, you know, third world retail investors are going to be the bag holder for the U.S. debt.
They're the final untouched pool of capital that doesn't have access to dollars.
And so, of course, they're foaming at the mouth to get out of the Argentine peso or the Turkish lira or whatever and hold dollars.
But then the stablecoin issuers take those dollars and buy treasuries.
And then ultimately, a stable coin is stable in name only, right?
Because it is one-to-one backed by the US dollar, which is constantly eroding in value.
Yeah.
So how do you see, I mean, I guess with Tether's kind of new, unique partnership here.
So, I mean, even outside of 21 with Tether, Canterford-Scherrold and, you know, Howard Lubnick, that sort of connection.
Do you see this as like a potential?
Because I mean, right now, Circle is the biggest stablecoin.
Obviously, they're launching USAT at Tether.
But how do you see this playing out here on the stablecoin side?
Yeah, I would not bet against Tether.
And Circle has had the favorable regulatory moat for some time,
given Coinbase has been public in the United States for a while.
It certainly seemed like a lot of the operation choke point during the Biden administration
was creating a bit of a regulatory moat for Circle.
Now that the market opened up a little bit more and we certainly know that there are members of the Trump administration like Howard Lutnick who have a vested interest in Tether I would not be
betting against Tether at all. And you brought up an interesting point earlier, which is about them
being a central bank digital currency. I'm not saying they are, but if you were going to issue
a central bank digital currency, you would do it through a private entity. We've seen the government
used private entities to do their bidding previously. A good example of this would be
online censorship was enforced by big tech, right? Because the government themselves,
they are basically blocked by the First Amendment from censoring people in their speech.
But there is a lot of wiggle room for a private entity. It's just a private company,
they can censor speech. Well, logically, you would assume that they could also find the same wiggle
room with censoring monetary transactions. And so people would be very resistant, especially
within the United States, given the history of our country and the resistance to government
control. People would resist the CBDC if it came directly from the Federal Reserve.
But if it's, quote unquote, only from a private company, I think you would see a lot more people
capitulate to such an instrument, although the function of it would likely be the same,
You would be able to freeze certain transactions, certain wallets, and really restrict commerce to only specific goods and services.
Yeah, I mean, I think this whole dynamic is something that I think almost Bitcoiners have taken the eye off the ball, so to speak, because now we have a quote unquote crypto friendly administration.
But now everybody's saying, you know, everything for Bitcoin is good.
But the push for stable coins, I think, is really, really interesting.
And, you know, something that happened really recently as well is Jack Mahler's, his account got frozen.
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proven. It's good, but the push for stable coins, I think is really, really interesting. And,
And, you know, something that happened really recently as well was Jack Mahler's, his account got frozen at Chase Bank and JP Morgan.
So, I mean, I think that these attacks are still prevalent.
And you brought up choke point 2.0.
Senator Lummis actually had a tweet saying that these policies still live on.
I don't know if, you know, that's just because of what happened with Jack or if she knows something else.
But what is your thought on all that?
Do you think that the choke point 2.0 policies are completely done with just because of the new admin here?
I would have said yes until this situation with Jack Maulers recently that you pointed out, right?
It's a guy who runs one of the most known Bitcoin exchanges in the country.
He certainly has a very high net worth.
And here he is getting debanked from JP Morgan.
It's a little suspicious, although I think we've certainly made a lot of progress over the last couple of years, even this year alone.
I think the biggest release of choke point chains was the change in the FASB accounting rules that happened late 2024.
That's what opened the floodgate for the Bitcoin treasury companies.
Bitcoin was actually able to become marked appropriately on public balance sheets.
And so we're starting to see Bitcoin hit escape velocity. That's not to say there won't be hiccups like this Jack Mahler's Chase Bank situation along the way. But I think we've made a lot of progress as an industry over the past couple of years.
And I'm fairly optimistic that by the time Trump's second term ends in 2029, that Bitcoin will be essentially too big to fail that even if you got a hostile administration in 2029, that they wouldn't really be able to do much at that point to hinder our progress as an industry.
yeah i mean hey that's a fair point and hopefully we're in a little bit different i mean place here
than uh than we're at right now at least with like the price action because yeah you know seeing the
the recent drawdown but i think you know now that trad fi is kind of in this is uh kind of i guess
par for the course like everybody was thinking of by the end of this year and myself included
that we would see bitcoin absolutely rip and uh we would see some some craziness going on here
in Q4, but unfortunately, that hasn't happened, at least yet. Maybe. I mean, there's still
two or three weeks left in the year, so maybe we could see something crazy. But
as this market has been developing over time, what do you think has been the biggest change in
catalyst this year? And how do you see us in this market now? Do you think the bull run is over and
and that's going to start to change the dynamics here?
The biggest change in the market is that we have an entirely different investor cohort
driving the price action.
So for the first 15 years of Bitcoin's existence until January 2024,
it was a, quote-unquote, speculative retail-driven asset.
It's no wonder you had these massive boom and bust cycles
when that was the primary cohort of people buying and selling Bitcoin.
Now it's totally different.
The ETFs were the starting gun, but it's been one news event after another, one new Bitcoin
product after another, one preferred equity.
And then you've got JP Morgan launching their own Bitcoin product.
All of these things are just further interconnecting Bitcoin and traditional markets.
And as that connection becomes more solid, Bitcoin is going to begin trading like an
institutional asset, which is what we've seen.
And it's going to be lower volatility than it has historically been.
And you're going to see investors be fairly disciplined in buying dips, as well as selling into strength, right?
You know, retail Bitcoiners, we're not content unless we get 100 extra turns.
That's not the institutional participants who are in the market now.
They'll take a 50% return and cash out, take their profits, whatever you want to say, and run home.
And so I'm very confident that 2026 is going to be a green year for Bitcoin. I think the four-year cycles, one, I don't think we have nearly a large enough data set to really like, you know, marry that idea as a concept. I think it's a little foolish to begin with.
And additionally, I think Bitcoin is now just going to be far more correlated to the larger macroeconomic picture, global liquidity, risk on versus risk off environment. So I personally don't see any reason to be bearish going into 2026.
I know a lot of people are, I think there's almost this self-fulfilling prophecy where people sold in Q4 of this year because they are so convinced that there's got to be another 75% drawdown.
You go up and you go down every four years.
This is what Bitcoin has done for the first decade and a half of its existence.
And so I think that kind of played into why Bitcoin's price is where it's at.
But when you really break down how much sell pressure there was this year, it's incredible that Bitcoin is only down 30% from peak to trough right now. Bitcoin, if you look at the ETF inflows, for example, they had net inflows of $57 billion this year.
Now imagine the same amount of inflows, but you don't have these hordes of OG Bitcoiners selling at 100K.
This could very well be the case in 2026, right?
These inflows have basically been nonstop.
They go up and down, but generally up and to the right.
These Wall Street investors are continuously accumulating Bitcoin.
Eventually, the class of 2017 and the class of 2020 and 2021, they're going to run out of coins they're willing to sell.
I think we're going to start to see that play out over 2026.
But these inflows from Wall Street are not stopping.
So I'm very bullish on Bitcoin over the next year, next three years, next 10 years.
And anybody who's trying to trade this market, I think you're going to get burned.
Yeah, so I mean, I agree with you there too.
I mean, I'm extremely bullish going into 26.
But what I think is interesting, kind of what you brought up,
traditional finance, there's different investors.
But now the institutions are coming in.
What do you make of this, I guess, Bitcoin on the balance sheet sort of craze?
Because we've seen just one company start to sell Bitcoin.
But it seems like a lot of them came in, bought, smash bought initially.
And then we don't hear anything else from them.
It seems like the only one that's continually buying it is strategy.
And all these other ones are now underwater because they bought when Bitcoin was between 100 and 120 at this point.
So, you know, what do you make of this treasury movement?
And is this something where, you know, you think almost this could be the next like FTX type of crash blow up where, you know, it doesn't Bitcoin still going to win at the end.
But this could cause like some negative short term price action.
No, I actually don't.
don't. And the reason is, if you break down the public companies with Bitcoin on their balance
sheet, outside of like the top 10, basically, they hold virtually no Bitcoin, not nearly enough to
impact the price. In 2024, in the summer, people have already forgotten about this, but the German
government sold about 80,000 Bitcoin. And right now, I'm going to pull up bitcoinquant.com so I
can get the exact numbers. But the public holdings are very top heavy. You have MicroStrategy with
about 600,000 BTC. Second is Mara with 53,000 Bitcoin. 21 now with 43,000. But it's a pretty
steep drop off. Number 10 is CleanSpark with 13,000. And basically everyone below them has
less than 10,000 Bitcoin. So even if all of them blew up, you're not going to get a seller with
the same amount of coin as the German government who market dumped 80,000 Bitcoin last summer.
And so I actually don't think they are really a threat in terms of being able to dump a lot
of Bitcoin on the market. And I think we're still early in terms of public companies adopting
Bitcoin. Every publicly traded company right now uses the internet. At some point, only a handful
of public companies actually use the internet and had Wi-Fi, I think, or a website rather.
And so I think we're still very, very early. What I'm looking at in terms of this trend is people love to point to the fact that most of these public companies, quote unquote, don't have a core business or their core business is not very profitable.
And I'd like to highlight that this is a feature, not a bug.
Right strategy, Michael Saylor has been incredibly vocal about this.
When they embarked on their Bitcoin journey, it's because they had very low growth prospects.
They were convinced they would be unable to compete with the Microsofts and Apples and Open AIs and Googles of the world.
And so it makes perfect sense, in my opinion, that companies who need Bitcoin the most are going to be the ones that adopt it first.
I think where things will really get interesting is when you do have these, quote unquote, otherwise successful companies start to just sweep some cash flows into Bitcoin. Will those equities be able to outperform Bitcoin over a long term? Probably not. Not unless they're positioning themselves as a leveraged Bitcoin equity. But I think that's an entirely separate business model, what strategy is doing. But I'm pretty excited. I think we're going to start to see that sometime in the next couple of years.
We're going to see a good significant number of companies, either in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ, that are just normal businesses, just sweeping some of their profits into Bitcoin.
We saw this earlier this year with Figma.
They're a software kind of like graphic design company that IPO'd.
And they had quietly stacked a couple hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin.
I think as Bitcoin becomes more boring and the headlines start to be less of an impact on the market in the short term, as well as just sentiment online, that's a sign that Bitcoin's winning because ultimately you don't have internet conferences anymore.
Right. You don't have people aren't getting all super excited about another company adopting the Internet.
Right. And I think that's where Bitcoin's headed in the long run is it's just going to be normal for any company to store some amount of their balance sheet in Bitcoin.
And as that becomes boring and the status quo, that's a sign that Bitcoin is won.
Yeah. And I think that that's going to see we're going to see some developments of that over time.
But you brought up an interesting point, the S&P 500.
Right now, it looks like Block is the only one that would potentially start to or at least continue to stack Bitcoin in the S&P 500.
And now we've had strategy up for that twice.
And then there's now this MSCI potential ruling that these Bitcoin treasury companies cannot be in the S&P 500 or at least any of these indices.
So I'm curious your thoughts on that because you brought up the profitable business model.
You know obviously strategy has its you know SaaS company that it was built on but it was somewhat of a zombie company before Saylor really put in the Bitcoin on the balance sheet play in 2020
And, you know, it's become what it is today.
So how do you view this ruling?
And do you think that this would negatively affect, I guess, this movement of companies putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet?
I think the movement is wrong, but I also don't think this will hinder any company from adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.
Because the primary reason they would do that is not necessarily to be included in some of these indices, but it's to preserve their capital.
Institutions, we tend to think of them in the abstract, but they're just a collection of individuals.
And we all have the same incentive, which is you cannot hold dollars.
Whether you're me, whether you're Michael Saylor, whether you're Larry Fink, if you hold dollars, they will lose value over time.
And so corporations have this same dilemma.
If you're generating a profit as a business, what do you do with that profit?
Do you reinvest it into the business?
Do you buy back shares?
Do you buy gold?
Do you buy real estate?
Do you buy fine art?
Do you buy treasuries?
Do you buy Bitcoin?
And I think more and more of them are going to come to the conclusion that some amount of Bitcoin is the correct answer.
it won't all be a bunch of Michael Saylor copycats going all in and borrowing money to buy Bitcoin.
But they're going to discover that zero is not the correct answer.
And so I do think this ruling, the people it hurts most are the investors that passively allocate into these indices.
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Zero is not the correct answer. And so I do think this ruling, the people that hurts most are the
investors that passively allocate into these indices. One thing I feel is almost like a
noble mission would be to Trojan horse Bitcoin into people's portfolios, because unfortunately,
most people are not willingly adopting Bitcoin and they're heading for a storm, right? The United
States dollar is on a gradual decline. Now, some people are more hyperbolic than others and think
it's a steep decline and we're going to have hyperinflation in the next couple of years.
I myself used to believe that. Now I think it's going to be a continuation of this slow bleed.
And that hurts the average person, right? The average person now can't buy a house until they're
almost 40 years old. You've got Gen Z living in a four bedroom house with three roommates and
they're barely able to make rent. You've got a plethora of older folks that are just not going
to be able to retire basically ever because the social security benefits they're going to receive
are just not going to be able to pay for all of the basic living needs,
shelter, gas, food, etc.
And so the one way I think we can actually solve this problem for a lot of people
is if we get Bitcoin into these portfolios almost in an unknowing capacity.
So if you get more squares and more strategies and more companies with Bitcoin exposure
into the S&P 500, into the NASDAQ, people will be exposed to Bitcoin and they won't even know it.
And this will allow them to continue to elevate their portfolio with inflation, right?
As the currency gets debased, they're going to be okay.
They're effectively going to be in the life raft if they have some sort of Bitcoin exposure.
But I don't think that will happen willingly.
And so I think we kind of need to get Bitcoin in there under people's noses effectively.
Yeah.
So, I mean, I think that is an interesting point.
But would you argue that we already kind of do that with some of the companies that have Bitcoin on the balance sheet, like Tesla and some others?
Or would you want, or I guess in your vision with this, would it be like more of a strategy or a company that is more all in on Bitcoin and not just, you know, kind of partially holding it?
I think it would need to be more Teslas, actually.
So they can adjust the weight that each company has in the indices.
And so let's say strategy does make it into the S&P 500.
Well, the weighting there is probably going to be under 1%.
And then as Bitcoin goes up and strategy goes up,
they're going to sell it and rebalance and make it 1% again, right?
And so you're not getting the full experience of the gains.
What I would rather see is a wider breadth.
So, you know, two or three dozen different companies in the S&P 500
that all have some amount of Bitcoin,
even if it's not fully girth to like strategy.
I got you.
Yeah.
I mean, and that would make more sense.
So, I mean, I honestly think that at this point in time, we'll probably see strategy
get in here next year at some point in 26, just because of how well it's doing and outperforming.
But I do think that it is something we need to be keeping an eye on because, I mean, you
know, JP Morgan's and the others, you know, they have a lot of dollars and they want to,
you know, utilize BlackRock's IBIT ETF and create the leverage products on that.
And essentially, it's just Wall Street pumping their own bags and they're trying to get Saylor to go kick rocks or something.
So I think it's, you know, it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.
But with this development of, you know, TradFi coming in and the ETFs, you know, we actually saw like a big sell off with these ETFs here when Bitcoin's price crashed.
And we saw a big sell off from retail with wallets like that had a million sats or more.
They decreased during this price crash from like $120,000 to about $80,000.
Now, the narrative has been that retail has not been here during this bull run.
Is that kind of some stuff that you're seeing as well, that retail hasn't quite shown up yet?
And the retail that has, they're buying in at $120,000 and not having the, quote, diamond hands that we used to meme into existence back in 2017 and 2020?
Yeah, I definitely agree that retail is not here. And I think it's for a variety of reasons. The main one being retail is broke. So in 2021, retail had just gotten a $2,000 stimulus check that they could load up into Robinhood or Coinbase or whatever and start buying different assets.
And so as the problems of fiat currency continue to make the cost of living increase and people are increasingly living paycheck to paycheck, especially at the retail level, they're just going to be a non-factor when it comes to markets.
And also Bitcoin is now an order of magnitude higher than it was in 2017.
So even the retail that is around, they're not going to be able to move the needle on the market in any material way.
Now, you do bring up a very interesting point, which is that the ETF holdings have declined during this recent drop off. However, it's only about 5% peak to trough compared to the Bitcoin price, which went down about 35%. And so when we talk about institutions, they're not necessarily, you know, people who buy the ETFs are not immune to effects of market psychology, right?
We tend to see them capitulate during dips, and we also tend to see them increase their buying capacity during local tops.
But generally, directionally, over the medium to long term, the ETFs are just this vehicle that is absorbing Bitcoin endlessly.
And I wonder where the Bitcoin price would be right now if we didn't have the $57 billion in net inflows into the ETFs in 2025.
I think the drop would have been a lot nastier than a 35% peak to trough.
Yeah. And I mean, I think, you know, the, this cycle, I mean,
I know we say it every single time, but this cycle is definitely different,
especially with that a hundred K psychology. I mean,
if you look at the amount that the whales are selling,
any time that we would have had the whales selling the amount that they're,
they sold, I think it's like a, in total, 9 million Bitcoin that, you know,
firm wallets with a thousand or more that have been dormant for the greater part of five plus
years. And I believe Checkmatey described that one. So if I'm incorrect, blame him. But anyway,
seeing that kind of sell-off would have crashed the market more than we've ever seen before,
because there just wasn't the buying pressure. And so I think actually floating around 120
for the time that we did was actually kind of bullish and a good sign of the market.
So it makes me believe that, you know, kind of like you described, like 26 is going to be bullish.
Maybe we start off a little slow, but I definitely think that we're going to start to pick up,
especially with, you know, this admin and the new institutions coming on.
Now, you know, let's parlay that into the government here.
Do you think that we're actually going to buy Bitcoin for this strategic reserve?
Because it seems like they signed it into executive order and outside of seizing people's Bitcoin, it's been all quiet on the Western fronts.
Yeah, if they do, it's probably going to be through something like 21.
Right now, as far as I understand, the regulatory environment and the congressional situation is just not conducive for them to take capital and just go buy Bitcoin directly.
I also don't think it would necessarily be the best optics because while people like you and I and the people listening to this podcast would say that's a great idea, the average American is going to point to the $39 trillion in debt, the $2 trillion annual deficit and question, quote unquote, why are we wasting money on Bitcoin?
It wouldn't make sense to the average person. And 2026 is going to be a midterm year. And so I don't think they're going to exhaust their political resources trying to push some type of Bitcoin buying through the proper channels there. And so I actually don't expect that in the short term. Over the long term, I think it's absolutely going to be the case.
But also, none of this diminishes the importance of the strategic Bitcoin reserve. Because as Bitcoiners, I would rather the government, when they confiscate Bitcoin, not sell it, than dump it all into the market and cause the price to go down, which is what could have previously happened without the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
And moreover, I'm an American. I love America. I want America first policies. I want Americans on top always. And so I want our country to have a nice, big, fat Bitcoin stockpile. I don't want other countries to have those resources because I believe Bitcoin is the most important strategic asset in the 21st century and beyond.
And so as an American, I want my country to have the most important strategic reserve asset in the 21st century.
And one more point, which is you mentioned that you said the daring phrase that this time is different.
And people are going to mock you for that in the comments.
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Alright, on that for me, let's get back to the show.
...predserve asset in the 21st century. And one more point, which is,
You mentioned that you said the daring phrase that this time is different.
And people are going to mock you for that in the comments.
But you're objectively correct.
This time is factually different.
I'm looking at the live Bitcoin price right now.
It's about $91,000 per Bitcoin.
That is almost to a T where we started the year.
Bitcoin has never in its entire history had a year this flat.
This is objectively different.
Bitcoin is going to have a yellow candle for the first time in history.
This is a big deal. And this time is certainly different.
Yeah 100 And you know I get it But I get people get annoyed with all of us saying that But I mean it just every cycle has its own unique little wrinkles in it And you know whether it like various macro factors or adoption I mean everything is never you know the same But I think this one is in fact you know a little bit more unique than what we seen before But outside of the government I mean potentially buying Bitcoin or utilizing one of these public partnerships
something that I think is, I guess, a telling here going forward is the overall macro environment.
I mean, we've got Jerome Powell is potentially going to cut interest rates in a few days here
again. And we've had inflation higher than it's ever been for an interest rate cut environment
and ending of QT. So what do you think of just the overall macro environment? It seems like Larry
Lepard's big print is going to play out here within the next year or maybe even faster than
he anticipated after writing that book. So I'm curious how you view it and what you think 26 is
going to look like just from a macro perspective? Yeah, great question. So the first point I would
make is don't overthink this. The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, whether it happens in
December or whether it happens in 2026, is bullish. And that's going to cause risk assets
to increase over the medium to long term. So I wouldn't try to get cued on this. I wouldn't try
to outthink it. They're going to cut rates and it's going to be good for markets. Now on the big
print. I think I like Larry Lepard a lot and I read his book and I find it pretty valuable.
Although I tend to be weary of the hyperbolic language here because the last thing I want,
and I know he doesn't want this either, is hyperinflation. And I absolutely do not want
that even though it would probably send Bitcoin to $10 million because it's going to fracture the
actual real economy in terms of the ability to produce goods and services, it would cause
unprecedented societal chaos. I do not want that to happen. And I also don't really think it's
likely. I mentioned earlier in the show, I think we're going to see a continual slow bleed of
purchasing power within the US dollar, right? Mathematically, it's inevitable. They are not
going to be able to pay down the debt nominally. They're going to have to debase the currency to
do so. They spend too much on Social Security, Medicare, military spending, interest payments on
the debt. They're not going to be able to run a budget surplus and pay the debt in the real way,
so to speak. They're going to devalue the currency. That much is obvious. And we're also seeing the
Federal Reserve capitulate on interest rate cuts far before they ever reach their quote-unquote
2% inflation target. So I think he's right in that all signs and all roads lead to currency
to basement. I'm just very optimistic that that won't happen in a catastrophic overnight fashion.
I'm also pretty optimistic that AI is going to radically increase our productivity,
which will allow the economy to grow at the very least with the debt.
Where will these economic gains go to? Where will they accrue to? It won't be people holding cash.
It will be people holding hard assets like Bitcoin or equity in the top performing businesses during this time.
So I do think a big print is coming.
But however, I'm pretty confident and optimistic that it'll be a gradual big print rather than kind of one giant tsunami of money printing like we saw in 2020.
I think that was an anomaly.
Yeah, and I mean, to me too, I think the way that this affects Bitcoin is very unique because I'm of the theory that we haven't really had a full bull run since 2017.
Because now before you guys come at me in the comments or anything, but if you look at 2020, right, we had the entire world economy shut down for months at a time, which is a huge just anomaly.
anomaly. So everybody, you know, kind of, I guess, you know, remembers but doesn't think of like the
full impact that had on the overall economy. And then we had just an insane amount of liquidity,
and you know, the stimmy checks and everything getting dumped into Bitcoin. But also during that
time, we had China banning Bitcoin mining, and then we had FTX and all the exchanges, essentially,
you know, trying to manipulate and maybe issue paper Bitcoin, because I don't think that they
they were actually, you know, buying Bitcoin for all of their clients all over the world. So,
you know, there was some hairiness with that. So I think that there was actually some potential
price suppression that we had last time around. And then now we have TradFi kind of in all of
this playing their TradFi games. So what do you think that this means for Bitcoin here? Are we
going to see like a 2020 type of run with, you know, this extended liquidity? Or do you think
we'll actually just get like kind of that the end of the four year cycle, even though I mean,
I don't know if I necessarily subscribe to that theory and more of like an extended runway here.
I think we're going to continue to see what we've seen since 2024 when the ETFs were created,
which is very long, drawn out periods of consolidation that shake all of the tourists
and high time preference traders out of their position. And every now and then every couple
of months, you're going to see Bitcoin move higher. In March of 2024, we went from about
$40K to $60K. In November of 2024, we went from $60K to $100K. In the summer of this year,
we went from the lows of $75K all the way up to $120K. I think we're going to see Bitcoin
stair-step higher continuously over the next decade.
Okay. So then we're going to go slow to $1 million is what you think, huh?
Yeah, I think we break it in the tortoise fashion rather than the hare.
I gotcha.
All right, so now that brings me into everybody's favorite topic here, Bitcoin mining, right?
I mean, obviously, you've got a close proximity to what is going on with this.
And I think the unique aspect that a lot of people were talking about maybe a year ago,
but haven't really brought it up too much here lately was during this last bear market,
we saw the hash rate actually increase.
And this was the first time we'd ever see this in a quote unquote bear market.
What are you kind of seeing right now in the mining space?
And do you think that there's some potentially nation states really starting to get into the Bitcoin mining space now?
Because it seems like there's a lot of energy dense countries really coming to the forefront.
There's sovereign wealth funds and everything else.
But there hasn't been an announcement of a big giant buy that's really blown our faces off just yet.
So maybe just maybe they're mining.
So what have you been seeing?
And do you think that that's a possibility there?
Great question.
And it's not a possibility.
It's a certainty.
We know for a fact that there are many nation states actively mining Bitcoin.
But I will say to me, the most interesting development that I've seen within mining in 2025 is the overwhelming amount of demand from non-Bitcoin people.
So Trump entirely changed the game in July of this year when he passed the one big beautiful bill and brought back 100% bonus depreciation.
So I'm going to kind of zoom out here and it'll come back to Bitcoin mining, trust me.
but I want to kind of set the stage here. We know that the government can print money, right?
They can print money. So why do they need to levy taxes when they have a money printer at the
Federal Reserve? It's to change the incentives of economic actors. They want to influence
certain behaviors by offering tax deductions or disincentivize other behaviors by increasing the
tax rate on those certain activities. And so when we view the world through this framework and
taxation through this framework, what kind of activities are they incentivizing and what are
they disincentivizing? Well, they tend to incentivize business creation and risk takers
and entrepreneurship. If you start a business, you get a plethora of tax savings that are not
available to the average W-2 employee. And the ethos behind Trump's one big, beautiful bill
is they want to grow out of the debt. They tried throwing the kitchen sink at the problem,
Doge to cut superfluous spending didn't work.
Tariffs to generate revenue immediately to try to pay down the debt didn't generate nearly
enough.
And so this is the next progressive stage within that, which is let's give capital back to
the free market.
Rather than bringing it in now in the form of taxation, let's offer people incentives
to start their own business.
And hopefully, business owners will allocate that capital more efficiently than the government.
the economy will grow and we'll have a larger tax base years down the line and basically be able to
pay back the debt then. So the entire idea behind this big, beautiful bill is to offer incentives
to business owners. One of those is 100% bonus depreciation. So certain assets qualify for this.
You could purchase basically any asset with a depreciable lifespan under 20 years. So we're
talking power washers and tractors and Bitcoin mining servers. There's a bunch of different
capital assets, capital goods, goods that you do not consume for themselves, but you use them to
produce other goods, goods you would use to run a business. And you can get a 100% tax deduction
on these goods. And this also has interesting origins in real estate, right? Because think
about private investor, business mogul Trump, not President Trump, switch hats here. This was his
play, right? He had billions of dollars of Manhattan real estate. He would depreciate them.
Now he couldn't do 100% bonus depreciation, but he could depreciate them enough to offset his
income. There were all these famous headlines from CNN and liberal media outlets trying to position
it as if Trump didn't pay taxes. He did not break any laws. He didn't do anything malicious.
he used the tax system according to the rules that were already written, right? He took advantage
of the rules, bought assets that he could depreciate, offset his income, and legally pay no taxes.
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Back to the show.
System, according to the rules that were already written, right?
He took advantage of the rules, bought assets that he could depreciate, offset his income,
and legally pay no taxes.
There's a quote from an early 20th century judge called, his name is Billings Hand, I
believe. And he said there's two systems of taxation, one for the educated and one for the
uneducated. So long story short, Bitcoin mining servers now qualify for 100% bonus depreciation.
So what we've seen at Blockware is tons of business owners now positioning their excess
capital rather than it going to Uncle Sam, they're buying Bitcoin mining servers and they're mining
Bitcoin with Blockware. And so one, it's opening the door to people that otherwise would not have
necessarily been interested in Bitcoin. They would have considered other assets for a tax write-off.
They would have maybe gone in on an oil rig or bought some real estate property and gone with
the straight line depreciation over 29 years or something like that. And instead, they're like,
man, I can get a better write-off with this Bitcoin miner. It's generating a lot of cash
flow every year, 25% to 50% returns depending on the Bitcoin price. And you're building a Bitcoin
treasury, which is going to passively accrue value for you over time. And so this to me has
been by far and away the most interesting development in the Bitcoin mining world.
And I think if we put back on the Trump hat, I think this could actually work in terms of
accelerating economic growth. Because if you extrapolate these incentives across all industries,
not just Bitcoin mining, the free market is going to have more capital to work with.
They're going to allocate it better than the government. And I think this is going to be
a net positive for the economy, a net positive for society. Yeah, I think, you know, giving the
people the tax benefits, I think, has always been a good incentive there. And that's interesting. I
mean, I think I've heard Mark Moss was maybe the one that kind of like opened my eyes to potential
of depreciation. But I after outside of him, I haven't really heard too many people talking about
the potential to use Bitcoin miners as depreciation. But that's interesting. And I think
it's going to be a huge development. Now, do you think that a lot of people have, I guess,
moved from assets like real estate and other hard assets towards something like a Bitcoin miner
just yet? Or is it still just, I guess, in the early stages here?
It's still in the early stages. And we're seeing the people do it now certainly are going to get a
first mover advantage. And I'm glad you mentioned Mark Moss, because he does a fantastic job at
articulating this concept. And he's opened my eyes as well. And I really view this through,
there's three levels to wealth creation. Most people listening to this are probably on level
two. So level one is you don't have any knowledge of how the financial system works. You go to your
job, you earn an income and you save in dollars. Level two is you know that the currency is going
to lose value. So you go to a job or you start a business and the income you produce, you save it
in assets, either Bitcoin, equities, real estate, whatever. Level three, and this is where I've
tried to position myself this year.
I think this is one of the things I've certainly learned the most about in 2025 is level three.
And this is the difference between sort of the middle class or upper middle class and the ultra
wealthy is they have a tax saving strategy. They're able to create somewhat of an economic
flywheel by the capital that would go to the government instead goes into income producing
assets that they're able to depreciate and then take that income and buy more hard assets. And so
Mark Moss does a great job at articulating this. And we're going to see it play out gradually where
investors and business owners, they take the capital they otherwise would have bought
a real estate property or a tractor or an oil rig or a washing laundry mat or whatever,
any kind of depreciable asset. And they're going to look at that and they're going to run the
calculus and they're going to see that I can buy an asset, a Bitcoin miner, that I can depreciate
100% in a single year. So the best tax savings play there is hands down. And additionally,
it's actually going to produce far more cash flow. I don't want to be a landlord. I don't want to
have to go change a tenant's toilet at three in the morning or whatever these landlords have to
deal with. And instead, this Bitcoin miner is just going to accumulate Bitcoin for me every single
day. And Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the past 15 years. So we're going to see more of
gradual shift. That's what we're seeing at Blockware. We have new clients this year that
they never mined Bitcoin before. They never even really considered it until they saw this tax
write-off. And now they're as orange-pilled as you and I. Because once they get their hands on it and
they start stacking some sats, even if they started with the idea of, I'm just going to sell all this
Bitcoin and just convert it to cash, the actual having that touch point with Bitcoin sends people
down the rabbit hole. They learn about it. They start wanting to accumulate very aggressively.
So I think this is an under-discussed development within the Bitcoin world.
And I think it's going to secretly orange pill not just people, but the most value additive people in the economy, which is business owners.
Because they're the ones who are looking the most and looking the hardest for a tax write-off.
Yeah, it's interesting.
So do you think like that?
I mean, obviously, you guys do great work at Blockware and help with hosting.
But do you see people trying to integrate that into whatever their business is, like whether it's, you know, if they have real estate?
I mean, I know Grant Cardone has been very vocal about all of this.
Do you foresee potentially, you know, real estate investors trying to integrate Bitcoin miners into their into the homes?
Or is that just a far fetched idea right now?
It not far fetched and it does happen but it not going to be at anywhere near a big enough scale to actually manifest in terms of like an increase in hash rate on the network or mining difficulty Because even if you were heating your house with a couple of Bitcoin miners
we're talking, you know, comparing three ASICs to heat a home versus a data center with a thousand
ASICs. It's just kind of, you know, the New York Yankees and a T-ball team when you really think
about the impact on the network. Now, that's not to disincentivize or discourage people from doing
that. I think if you can find any way to build and incorporate hash into your house, do it.
Absolutely. Go for it. I think it's very important for keeping the Bitcoin network decentralized and
secure, as well as I think it's just a fun hobby. And why would you not want to stack sats as a
hobby? Yeah, exactly right. I mean, that's definitely a good hobby to have. But I want
to put your conspiratorial hat on here for a second. Because, you know, with this discussion
on Bitcoin mining, and obviously, the Trumps are very heavy into real estate. I mean, they just
launched ABC, right, American Bitcoin company. And we've seen Eric Trump talk a lot about Bitcoin
mining. He's posted a video on X here recently, of, you know, showing the entire facility that
they've got here in Texas. Do you think that, you know, this law about Bitcoin mining was
coincidental or do you think that Eric and some of his brothers were in his father's ear about the
potential benefits of Bitcoin mining and kind of trying to sway it over from the real estate side
into the Bitcoin side of things? I mean, love it or hate it, that's how politics works, right?
And it's kind of ironic because when Trump was running in 2015, he was like, I have my own money,
like nobody's going to tell me what to do. That's not really how things actually shaked out in
practice. He certainly capitulates to the demands of his donors. As a Bitcoiner, I want Bitcoiners
to be the people in the politicians' ears. I want us to have the largest and most powerful and
influential political lobbies advocating for my interests as a Bitcoiner. That point aside,
I'm certain, yeah, there was definitely somebody in his ear. But I'm glad you brought up ABTC
because I think the relationship between American Bitcoin and Hut8
does a great job at really dissecting the Bitcoin mining industry
because I view the Bitcoin mining world as having multiple distinct layers.
And people have gotten very confused in the past
because Bitcoin will go on these rallies
and mining stocks will just not come anywhere close to competing with that.
and they kind of struggle and underperform while Bitcoin doing well Sometimes it the university of mining stocks doing well and Bitcoin not But the fundamental reason is because most quote unquote
Bitcoin mining stocks, they're not really that long Bitcoin. Because to mine Bitcoin at scale,
you have to have land, you have to have certain energy infrastructure, you have to have
transformers and containers. And at these large scales, you're having a bunch of additional
operating costs, employees to manage all of that. The executives get certain high compensation
packages. They're taking out loans and they're having to pay interest on all that.
And so the actual breakdown of the balance sheet is not really incredibly long Bitcoin,
but this is where I am a big fan of American Bitcoin. And what they did is Hut8 said,
all right, we have these data centers and we have these Bitcoin miners in the data centers.
What if we break off the business so that HUT8 is just the data centers and all of the energy infrastructure, which you can monetize that by mining Bitcoin, you can monetize it by running AI or high performance computing servers.
And then we take all the Bitcoin miners and we take all the Bitcoin, we put it into a different entity.
And now if you're an investor, you can choose between the lower volatility Hut 8, which is more of a cash cow, less volatile, less Bitcoin exposed type entity.
Or you can say, hey, I want to get long Bitcoin.
I want to buy the Bitcoin miners.
I want to buy the Bitcoin.
Let me buy American Bitcoin.
And so at Blockware, what we offer to our clients is to be like American Bitcoin.
You don't have all of the additional overhead of running your facility.
You just own the ASIC.
That's your only upfront cost, 100% tax deduction.
And your only operating expense is the electricity.
And then you keep all the Bitcoin that you mine.
So it positions you as that slice of the pie, right?
If it's a layered pie, you've got the land and energy at the bottom.
You have the infrastructure and operations at top.
And then above that, you have the Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin that actually gets accumulated.
And so if you don't want to own the whole stack, which two-thirds of that stack is not really long Bitcoin,
and you just want to be at the top, you can be an American Bitcoin
or you can mine Bitcoin with someone like Blockware.
Yeah, that's great.
Well, you guys do great works over at Blockware.
So tell us a little bit about what you guys got here planned for the year ahead,
if you can, and some of the things that you're looking forward to for 2026.
Yeah, so this is, it's your lucky day, Brandon.
I'm actually going to break news on this show.
I didn't plan on doing this and I guess I'm just going to tease at it.
So we launching a new product in 2026 Q1 and I try to say as much as I can So this is going to in my opinion replace the way a lot of people dollar cost average into Bitcoin So we talk a lot at Blockware about Bitcoin mining as producing
Bitcoin at a discount. So if you're going on Coinbase or River or Swan or Strike, you're
buying Bitcoin at the market price. Your exchange rate is dollars for Bitcoin. If you're mining
Bitcoin, your exchange rate is compute and energy for Bitcoin. And so there's this arbitrage because
you're able to produce Bitcoin at a price effectively discounted from the dollarized
Bitcoin exchange rate. So for example, the most efficient miners at our facilities are
basically buying Bitcoin every single day at $60,000 per coin. So about a 50% market discount.
The product we're offering, which isn't live yet, but it'll be live very soon.
you're going to be able to basically get that discounted Bitcoin price
without actually buying the mining server yourself.
So if you don't need a tax write-off,
if you can't afford to spend $5,000 on a Bitcoin miner,
you're going to be able to unlock that discounted price
without actually buying it.
And I'll leave it at that, but keep an eye out
because we're going to be launching this product very, very soon.
That's awesome.
We'll link all your socials and everything like that in the show notes
so people can check it out when it's actually live.
But hey, breaking news, man.
I appreciate you coming on this show
and thanks so much for your time.
So why don't you tell people
where they can find out your socials
and the great work that you guys do
over at Blockware as well.
Thank you for having me, Brandon.
It's always a joy to come on here
and chop it up with you.
If you want to follow me,
you can find me at Mitchell Hoddle.
I'm still battling with X
to try to get the at Mitchell handle.
So hopefully that'll happen at some point.
I don't know if there's any Mitchell
with more clout than me on X.
If so, I haven't seen them.
There's not a lot of Mitchells out there,
but fingers crossed.
So in the meantime,
you can find me at Mitchell Hoddle.
And if you go to blockwaresolutions.com,
you can learn more about Blockware.
You can see our different hosting facilities.
You can see our marketplace,
which has real-time 24-7 live analytics
on all the Bitcoin miners,
their hash rate, energy consumption,
revenue costs,
everything you would need to know.
You can see live, real-time,
don't trust, verify.
and if you're interested in mining Bitcoin,
shoot me a DM and I'd be happy to help you
leverage 100% bonus depreciation
and stack Bitcoin at a discount.
There we go.
I'll put all that in the show notes.
And Mitchell, thanks so much, boss.
Thank you, Brandon.
Thank you guys all for tuning in
to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.
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