1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:10,880
Christine Lagarde has published multiple articles at the ECB openly saying like there is an urgent need to channel retail savings into EU capital markets.

2
00:00:11,300 --> 00:00:15,040
Like that just screams they're going to freeze your savings.

3
00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:29,400
A lot of this is spreading to America. The two stable coins that have been kind of given a monopoly over the creation of money in America have both been guilty of freezing people's savings.

4
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:34,240
I am getting notifications on my iPhone telling me that because I have an Australian YouTube

5
00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,780
account, I'm going to be forced into a digital ID in four days time.

6
00:00:38,060 --> 00:00:40,140
I like to walk through a thought experiment.

7
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,440
A $4 million Bitcoin by 2040 is a failure, right?

8
00:00:44,500 --> 00:00:45,720
Now that's what the power law produced.

9
00:00:46,260 --> 00:00:52,820
To anybody who says you need 10 Bitcoin to retire, all of them think Bitcoin's just digital

10
00:00:52,820 --> 00:00:53,060
gold.

11
00:00:53,060 --> 00:00:58,100
I think Bitcoin's going to be way closer to 50 million a coin, and that's ignoring hyper

12
00:00:58,100 --> 00:00:58,520
inflation.

13
00:00:58,740 --> 00:00:59,600
That's today's dollars.

14
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,240
All of a sudden, 0.1 Bitcoin is 5 million big ones.

15
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,920
And I mean, you can retire anywhere with 5 million big ones.

16
00:01:07,820 --> 00:01:08,640
What's up, guys?

17
00:01:08,780 --> 00:01:13,540
70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month, but 71% are not subscribed.

18
00:01:13,540 --> 00:01:16,440
So you're going to miss out on some of the great green candle content.

19
00:01:16,660 --> 00:01:20,760
So make sure that you're hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get

20
00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,980
notified every time I drop a video.

21
00:01:23,180 --> 00:01:25,940
All right, now let's get back into this great interview.

22
00:01:25,940 --> 00:01:32,860
Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast. I normally say the man,

23
00:01:32,940 --> 00:01:37,180
the myth, the legend, but we've got Luke here again, and I don't think he necessarily fits

24
00:01:37,180 --> 00:01:42,240
that description now that he's back on the podcast. But Luke, you've been covering a lot

25
00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:47,420
about the EU potentially freezing the savings accounts, and I think there's a lot of craziness

26
00:01:47,420 --> 00:01:52,580
going on there. So why don't you dive in to everything that you're seeing in the EU right

27
00:01:52,580 --> 00:01:57,920
now and why everybody should be keeping a close eye on the developments going on over there

28
00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:05,240
yes the scary thing is it's not just in the eu a lot of the laws the regulations the ideas of a

29
00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:12,180
savings cap being talked about in britain and the eu you're slowly starting to see a lot of these

30
00:02:12,180 --> 00:02:19,300
similar narratives being rolled out in america so again this is like a worldwide thing right now

31
00:02:19,300 --> 00:02:25,780
as we're recording here on December the 6th, I am getting notifications on my iPhone telling me

32
00:02:25,780 --> 00:02:30,380
that because I have an Australian YouTube account, I'm going to be forced into a digital ID in four

33
00:02:30,380 --> 00:02:37,680
days time. So what we're seeing is a global push. And what we're seeing is like a global attack when

34
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:44,420
it comes to not just your online communications, but how you spend and hold your money online.

35
00:02:44,420 --> 00:02:49,800
So we've got the European Central Bank trying to roll out a CBDC.

36
00:02:50,360 --> 00:03:02,340
And what's really interesting is Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, is openly praising China's model of a CBDC, saying it's been a success for all the people.

37
00:03:02,340 --> 00:03:15,520
And that's just concerning. I mean, Christine Lagarde has published multiple articles at the ECB openly saying like there is an urgent need to channel retail savings into EU capital markets.

38
00:03:15,640 --> 00:03:22,340
Like that just screams like they're going to freeze your savings if you really kind of read between the lines.

39
00:03:22,340 --> 00:03:31,560
So the EU's been pushing for this central bank digital currency and now the EU is also pushing for something called chat control.

40
00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:47,240
This essentially ends encryption all across the European nations. I made a video on this today, and there's 22 of the 26 European nations and countries have agreed to essentially outlaw encryption.

41
00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:53,140
So that means any photo on your phone, any message you send your grandma or your grandpa,

42
00:03:53,320 --> 00:04:01,060
or anything you say on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, it's all being surveilled and it's all going to be

43
00:04:01,060 --> 00:04:08,020
used to build a social credit score. I know that sounds like a big and bold statement, but just

44
00:04:08,020 --> 00:04:14,860
look at what the UK is doing right now. The UK has a bank called NatWest that's literally calculating

45
00:04:14,860 --> 00:04:20,660
people's carbon credit footprints. So if somebody is eating too much steak, you can see all of their

46
00:04:20,660 --> 00:04:25,440
transactions that they do each month has been tracked. It has a number next to it. It's a carbon

47
00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:31,520
credit score. So I think we've got the EU pushing towards Orwellian rules when it comes to

48
00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:36,520
communications and money. And the UK is doing the same thing. I mean, the Bank of England,

49
00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:40,960
the kind of first thing that really raised the alarm bells for me when I started looking into

50
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:49,120
this rabbit hole was the UK's central bank white paper. They wrote in 2021 titled, uh, the execution

51
00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:54,980
of a bailing. It wasn't like a theoretical framework. It's an actionable guide of how

52
00:04:54,980 --> 00:05:01,660
they steal everybody's money in a banking crisis. So I think we've got the UK now talking about

53
00:05:01,660 --> 00:05:08,480
mandatory digital IDs to work. They're talking about savings caps on digital pounds. That's the

54
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:15,260
same thing being used in the EU. They're talking about the need for two to 3000 euro savings caps

55
00:05:15,260 --> 00:05:22,660
on their CBDC. And I just think a lot of this is spreading to America. The two stable coins that

56
00:05:22,660 --> 00:05:29,440
have been kind of given a monopoly over the creation of money in America have both been

57
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:37,160
guilty of freezing people's savings. That's Tether and that's Circle. So I just, I'm really kind of

58
00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:44,040
skeptical here that we've supposedly got America on the side of freedom. Trump's been talking about,

59
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:50,800
you know, outlawing CBDCs. So he might outlaw CBDCs, but if he welcomes Tether and Circle,

60
00:05:50,980 --> 00:05:58,840
USDC into being the digital currency for America, if they have the power to freeze users funds,

61
00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:05,680
like both Tether and Circle have done multiple times, what's the difference there? That is a

62
00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:10,960
CBDC. That is essentially a central bank digital currency. It is the thing that everybody's scared

63
00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:17,340
of. Everybody hears central bank digital currency and they're fearful naturally, but is there a big

64
00:06:17,340 --> 00:06:27,100
difference between private bank digital currency and CBDC if both entities are essentially controlled

65
00:06:27,100 --> 00:06:33,580
by one or two people at the top of the pyramid who kind of pull the strings and tell you who can

66
00:06:33,580 --> 00:06:38,980
and who can't transact. I don't think there's a major difference. From first principles,

67
00:06:39,380 --> 00:06:43,840
it's very basic. It's digital currency that can be frozen. And I think that's going to be rolled

68
00:06:43,840 --> 00:06:48,140
out worldwide. Brandon, what do you think? Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of people haven't

69
00:06:48,140 --> 00:06:54,700
really been talking about that the US and the UK just made a crypto task force, like a joint task

70
00:06:54,700 --> 00:07:00,080
force to band together essentially. And they lined it out there that it was to help with

71
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:05,820
stopping the nefarious activities that could all happen. And so even though, you know, the narrative

72
00:07:05,820 --> 00:07:11,480
in the United States is that Trump and, you know, we're very pro crypto and everything like that,

73
00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:17,340
pro freedom. It is interesting when you look at the connections between Tether and the United

74
00:07:17,340 --> 00:07:22,640
States government. I mean, Howard Lubnick and Cantor Fitzgerald, they were holding the funds

75
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:27,760
of Tether for a while. Tether is one of the largest holders of U.S. government bonds. And I

76
00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:39,480
I think, you know, looking at the connections between these, you know, stable coins, I mean, I don't see where you're wrong in this case, because essentially it's just privatized banking.

77
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:54,980
And now they're getting more intertwined. I mean, we saw Bohinds leave from the government sector to the private sector and then all of a sudden become the CEO of USAT because the USDT wasn't USA compliant.

78
00:07:54,980 --> 00:08:24,960
So I think, you know, when you're starting to connect a lot of these dots, it is very interesting to me. And, you know, obviously, Bitcoin could be a way around this. But do you see them using Bitcoin almost as this backdoor where they're essentially, you know, being more friendly, but then trying to sneak in these CBDCs, even though, you know, we have in the United States, for example, they're trying to roll out policies and saying that there will be no CBDCs.

79
00:08:24,980 --> 00:08:30,560
CBDCs, do you think that this is essentially just the backdoor way to use stable coins to do this?

80
00:08:31,380 --> 00:08:36,320
So I got a complicated answer to that question. Before I answer it, I will remind you,

81
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:43,720
Howard Lutnick, wasn't he neighbors with Jeffrey Epstein? I'm not sure whether that's true, but

82
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,600
I mean, a lot of people, I think you recently did a really good interview with Simon Dixon,

83
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:52,700
and he kind of lays out how the proof of weapons network is involved and, you know,

84
00:08:52,700 --> 00:08:57,760
getting their tentacles into a lot of these Bitcoin companies. And I mean, I think Howard

85
00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:04,560
Lutnick, Kenta Fitzgerald, they kind of partnered up, so to say, to create this Bitcoin company 21.

86
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:09,240
And I think that's just an interesting tidbit there. Howard Lutnick, neighbors of Jeffrey

87
00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:13,760
Epstein, who knows, could you be a coinky dink? Maybe it's just neighbors or maybe he's going

88
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:20,480
with a island boy onto his island there and doing all sorts. But what I will say is to answer your

89
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:27,200
question. I've long thought that America would be one of the first nations to actually adopt Bitcoin.

90
00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,900
So if you actually think about it from first principles, I know how controversial this will

91
00:09:30,900 --> 00:09:37,820
sound. But I actually think America adopting Bitcoin actually helps America extend their

92
00:09:37,820 --> 00:09:43,180
global reserve currency hegemon much longer than most people think. And the reason why is

93
00:09:43,180 --> 00:09:49,200
kind of this involvement with stable coins. So in 2022, I wrote like a 10,000 word,

94
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:56,880
stupidly long essay titled the Bitcoin milkshake theory wrote that in 2022. Anyone can Google it.

95
00:09:57,300 --> 00:10:01,680
I've seen a few people try to use that same narrative more recently this year, but I've

96
00:10:01,680 --> 00:10:07,540
been looking at this for years. And if you think about it from first principles, why would America

97
00:10:07,540 --> 00:10:13,100
have a debt problem? Well, they, a lot of people say they have a debt problem. What they really

98
00:10:13,100 --> 00:10:18,000
have is a demand problem. They could have a hundred trillion dollars of debt. If there's a

99
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:23,480
hundred trillion dollars of demand for us debt the demand problem is what will get america into

100
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:30,420
into a hyperinflationary event the only reason you have hyperinflation it's not because governments

101
00:10:30,420 --> 00:10:35,740
print too much money it's because they print too much money for the amount of demand there is

102
00:10:35,740 --> 00:10:40,740
in the market so the problem with america is you have the largest holders of us treasuries

103
00:10:40,740 --> 00:10:46,580
Japan and China now becoming the biggest sellers of US treasuries in 2024 and 2025.

104
00:10:47,340 --> 00:10:54,220
So that is where America gets itself into trouble. Now, the reason how Bitcoin and stable coins fixes

105
00:10:54,220 --> 00:11:01,440
this is I believe that in countries that adopt Bitcoin, they're also going to adopt stable coins.

106
00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,760
So let's think about that for a minute. Which countries around the world have the highest

107
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:12,400
US dollar stable coin adoption. It's Pakistan, it's Argentina, it's Turkey. Now, what are some

108
00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:17,300
interesting correlations that you see in those countries? They have a terribly weak local

109
00:11:17,300 --> 00:11:23,680
currency. The Pakistan rupee, the Argentinian peso and the Turkish lira are all incredibly weak

110
00:11:23,680 --> 00:11:29,180
currencies. And all these countries have super high Bitcoin adoption. So I don't know whether

111
00:11:29,180 --> 00:11:35,400
it's a chicken or the egg. I don't know which comes first, but my thesis is that if a country

112
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:42,840
like turkey were to adopt bitcoin as a legal tender they would also have to adopt us dollars

113
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:48,600
to use as a medium of exchange and a unit of account while bitcoin is still too volatile

114
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:55,160
and i think that kind of thesis this is again a thesis i've had for multiple years this is playing

115
00:11:55,160 --> 00:12:00,200
out the countries with the most bitcoin adoption have the most stable coin adoption and i just

116
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:08,440
think it's a natural thing to happen. Like once the Turkish lira has 200, 300, 500% inflation,

117
00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,960
all of a sudden, Bitcoin's going to be adopted as a store of value.

118
00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:18,360
But if Bitcoin's still moving by 200, 300, 400, 500% per year, it's going to be too volatile to use

119
00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:23,960
as that pricing mechanism. So that's where us dollars and in particular us stable coins will

120
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:28,460
will be adopted as that unit of account or that medium of exchange.

121
00:12:28,460 --> 00:12:36,340
And if the, all of these us dollar stable coins, if they are 100% backed by us treasuries

122
00:12:36,340 --> 00:12:43,920
like tether and like circle are all of a sudden you've got China and Japan selling hundreds

123
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:48,400
of billions of dollars, the us treasuries, but now you've got stable coins like tether

124
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:53,340
and circle buying hundreds of billions of dollars of stable coins.

125
00:12:53,340 --> 00:13:01,240
all of a sudden I, in 2022, I called the stable coins. I called them, um, uncle Sam's, uh, sugar

126
00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:10,420
daddy. They are the way that uncle Sam America can de-leverage its debt. Uh, so I think this is,

127
00:13:10,420 --> 00:13:18,620
this is kind of a natural process. I think the writing's kind of been on the wall since 2022,

128
00:13:18,620 --> 00:13:26,600
when Tether was like 20% backed by safe US treasuries and 80% backed by other more risky

129
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:33,660
commercial paper, despite what the Tether truthers and the Doomburgs and the Doomers were saying about

130
00:13:33,660 --> 00:13:40,800
Tether in 2022, they were clearly buying more US treasuries and they were clearly selling their

131
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:45,320
Chinese paper, which is why I wrote that this article in 2022. And I said, watch this space.

132
00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:50,460
if Tether keeps buying US treasuries, eventually the American government will come to the realization

133
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:56,520
that protecting Tether and even partnering with Tether and these other stable coin companies

134
00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:02,600
will be the economic wildcard that helps to extend the US dollars global reserve currency

135
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:07,600
much longer than most people think. And now look at where we are. Tether holds more treasuries than

136
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:12,960
my home country of Australia with 30 million people living there. So I think, I'm not sure

137
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:19,440
that answered your question, but, uh, I, I, I think from first principles, America is going to

138
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:25,740
be incentivized to adopt us dollar stable coins and Bitcoin because it helps them prolong that

139
00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:31,480
global reserve currency. Uh, I think it's, it's less of like a backdoor confiscation thing.

140
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:38,140
Although I think it's like a kill two birds with one stone. I think America's like number one

141
00:14:38,140 --> 00:14:44,980
plan if they're thinking rationally about this is to extend the dollar's reign i i like to think

142
00:14:44,980 --> 00:14:51,040
that they're thinking about the 4d chess game that i just rambled about for five minutes um but i

143
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:59,500
think a a nice side benefit of that 4d chess game is you also get more control over people's money

144
00:14:59,500 --> 00:15:06,500
by wrangling tether in and partnering up with the doj like tether has to freeze different accounts

145
00:15:06,500 --> 00:15:10,180
and massive multi-million dollar transactions like they have previously,

146
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,900
it also kind of gives America the control that it wants over money.

147
00:15:15,700 --> 00:15:20,620
Yeah, and I've always seen the way that the United States has moved with Bitcoin,

148
00:15:20,620 --> 00:15:25,080
you know, like requiring KYC, trying to make it like more difficult

149
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,920
for these non-custodial Bitcoin lightning wallets to come in

150
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,520
as something of just, they don't hate Bitcoin necessarily,

151
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:34,500
they just want to know where you're moving it

152
00:15:34,500 --> 00:15:36,240
so they could either tax you later

153
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:47,529
or potentially tell this company to stop and freeze said account But you know checkmatey probably the best Australian in Bitcoin maybe outside of Peter Dunworth I really can think

154
00:15:47,529 --> 00:15:53,409
of any other good Australians in Bitcoin outside of those two guys. He really opened my eyes to

155
00:15:53,409 --> 00:15:58,349
this where it's really just, what if I told you, you never had to sell your Bitcoin. Instead,

156
00:15:58,349 --> 00:16:03,849
you can borrow against it with salt lending. Why give up your hard earned Bitcoin when you can

157
00:16:03,849 --> 00:16:09,649
unlock its value without letting it go. With Salt you get secure Bitcoin collateralized

158
00:16:09,649 --> 00:16:17,329
loans with no credit checks, no prepayment fees, and best of all, no rehypification.

159
00:16:17,329 --> 00:16:22,509
Salt has had zero customer collateral losses since it launched. Salt was the first platform

160
00:16:22,509 --> 00:16:28,669
to offer Bitcoin collateralized loans starting way back in 2016. Today they offer tailored

161
00:16:28,669 --> 00:16:35,789
options for both individuals and businesses. And now introducing Salt Shield, the no liquidation

162
00:16:35,789 --> 00:16:40,529
solution. No forced liquidations during the lifetime of your loan when you're enrolled with

163
00:16:40,529 --> 00:16:47,129
Salt Shield. This just launched at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas and it is next level

164
00:16:47,129 --> 00:16:54,289
peace of mind. For green candle listeners only, head to saltlending.com slash green dash candle

165
00:16:54,289 --> 00:16:58,469
for this exclusive offer for your Bitcoin collateralized loan.

166
00:16:58,749 --> 00:17:01,469
You can get cash for your Bitcoin today.

167
00:17:02,109 --> 00:17:04,849
Salt Lending, secure, trusted, proven.

168
00:17:05,189 --> 00:17:06,749
Maybe outside of Peter Dunworth,

169
00:17:06,829 --> 00:17:10,089
I really can't think of any other good Australians in Bitcoin

170
00:17:10,089 --> 00:17:11,529
outside of those two guys.

171
00:17:11,929 --> 00:17:13,709
He really opened my eyes to this,

172
00:17:13,789 --> 00:17:16,809
where it's really just these poor countries

173
00:17:16,809 --> 00:17:19,169
that are suffering through hyperinflation

174
00:17:19,169 --> 00:17:21,729
that are essentially going to be propping up the dollar

175
00:17:21,729 --> 00:17:23,229
because like you pointed out,

176
00:17:23,229 --> 00:17:30,289
Argentina, Turkey, like they don't want their own currency. They want the best fiat currency out

177
00:17:30,289 --> 00:17:35,529
there. And right now it is the dollar. So it makes sense. And then, you know, all these poor countries

178
00:17:35,529 --> 00:17:40,269
are just going to keep using all of these stable coins like Tether. And then Tether is just going

179
00:17:40,269 --> 00:17:45,969
to keep buying up that government debt. So I think over time, like you're nailing it on the head here

180
00:17:45,969 --> 00:17:50,469
that, you know, these poor countries are essentially just going to allow the US dollar to reign

181
00:17:50,469 --> 00:17:56,369
Supreme for a lot longer. And that's why the Trump administration really made a huge effort

182
00:17:56,369 --> 00:18:02,769
to pass the Genius Act first and not go through the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve or that route either.

183
00:18:03,429 --> 00:18:10,469
And to be quite honest, we haven't really seen much in the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve outside of

184
00:18:10,469 --> 00:18:16,149
confiscating Bitcoin, which I think is another really interesting aspect. So how do you think

185
00:18:16,149 --> 00:18:21,769
you know, that is all playing in together. Do you think like, you know, they're actually looking at

186
00:18:21,769 --> 00:18:29,249
Bitcoin or they've just been looking at the dollar as a, or as the stable coins is a way to prop up

187
00:18:29,249 --> 00:18:35,749
the dollar and Bitcoin is just, I guess, the marketing ploy behind it. So there's multiple

188
00:18:35,749 --> 00:18:41,629
scenarios. I'm going to start with a scenario that I hope is true. So Donald Trump announced

189
00:18:41,629 --> 00:18:46,989
strategic Bitcoin reserve 10 months ago in March. Sorry, that's nine months ago. They said within

190
00:18:46,989 --> 00:18:54,209
30 days, uh, the U S treasury and all governments, uh, parties and facilities must give me the

191
00:18:54,209 --> 00:19:00,089
president, a report to show us how much Bitcoin America holds within 30 days that was signed in

192
00:19:00,089 --> 00:19:04,109
March. We still haven't got that report. So we don't know how much Bitcoin America holds.

193
00:19:04,989 --> 00:19:10,529
Uh, we also were told we're going to get a strategic Bitcoin reserve. I think a lot of us

194
00:19:10,529 --> 00:19:15,969
Bitcoiners just thought that that implied that America, we're going to go back, go out there

195
00:19:15,969 --> 00:19:22,989
and buy a million coins and execute the bill that Cynthia Lummis keeps talking about the Bitcoin for

196
00:19:22,989 --> 00:19:28,609
America act, or even the more crazy and the more bullish bill that RFK was talking about.

197
00:19:29,009 --> 00:19:35,089
Um, I think it was like a 4 million Bitcoin buy, which would be crazy. Now that hasn't happened.

198
00:19:35,089 --> 00:19:43,669
now i i think what i like to think and what i hope is happening uh again i'm not american uh but i

199
00:19:43,669 --> 00:19:49,089
like to think i'm part american because i think uh america if i was allowed to live there i'd live

200
00:19:49,089 --> 00:19:52,609
there i don't know if you guys would let me brand them but i would love to live there because i just

201
00:19:52,609 --> 00:19:59,289
love i love what i love what the country stands for and i think if freedom remains alive in america

202
00:19:59,289 --> 00:20:05,669
then the world has a chance to escape from like what Europe and Australia and Canada's talking

203
00:20:05,669 --> 00:20:10,909
about. So what I hope is happening is America's buying a shitload of Bitcoin behind closed doors.

204
00:20:11,349 --> 00:20:16,609
And what I really hope is happening is when Trump signed this strategic Bitcoin reserve,

205
00:20:17,009 --> 00:20:24,909
the price of Bitcoin ripped from like 60K to 115K. And what I hope is happening is a few people

206
00:20:24,909 --> 00:20:29,389
tapped Donald on the shoulder and said, dude, chill, look at the price of Bitcoin. It's running

207
00:20:29,389 --> 00:20:36,189
away. We want to privately fill our bags before we let this thing rip. And then I don't think it's

208
00:20:36,189 --> 00:20:42,189
a coincidence that, uh, in April, the next month, Trump starts talking about the tariff war and the

209
00:20:42,189 --> 00:20:48,509
global markets were selling off Japanese yen carry trade was unwinding. We had that 20% correction in

210
00:20:48,509 --> 00:20:56,209
stocks. Bitcoin had that from memory, it like had a prolonged chopping period. So I hope that

211
00:20:56,209 --> 00:21:03,369
America's buying Bitcoin. That's what I hope is happening. I also, I just want to pause. I don't

212
00:21:03,369 --> 00:21:08,009
want to get us in trouble. I like to think that they're buying Bitcoin behind closed doors.

213
00:21:08,269 --> 00:21:15,309
And I like to think they understand Bitcoin. I think Trump's hinted at enough things to maybe

214
00:21:15,309 --> 00:21:20,189
indicate that him and the Trump family at least knows what's happening. But then there's also the

215
00:21:20,189 --> 00:21:23,229
other side of the argument. I don't have a strong opinion on this. So I'll just show you the two

216
00:21:23,229 --> 00:21:28,489
sides. Then you have the flip side. Maybe Trump has no flipping idea what's going on. Maybe

217
00:21:28,489 --> 00:21:34,929
Barron's manipulating the markets and, you know, leverage shorting Bitcoin 10 minutes before he

218
00:21:34,929 --> 00:21:41,369
writes a tweet for Trump talking about a hundred percent tariffs on China on October 10th. Cause

219
00:21:41,369 --> 00:21:46,389
Because we all know that some anonymous whale loaded up a hundred million dollars short

220
00:21:46,389 --> 00:21:52,369
two minutes before Trump made a tweet on October 10th and it saw hundreds of millions of dollars.

221
00:21:52,369 --> 00:21:59,569
No, it actually saw 19 billions of dollars wiped out and liquidated on October 10th.

222
00:21:59,569 --> 00:22:02,909
And that was kind of like the day that started.

223
00:22:02,909 --> 00:22:08,809
Honestly what kind of looks like if you're a degen trader, it looks like the Bitcoin

224
00:22:08,809 --> 00:22:09,809
bear market.

225
00:22:09,809 --> 00:22:14,449
be a topic for maybe later on. A lot of people are convinced we're in a four-year bear market

226
00:22:14,449 --> 00:22:20,369
right now. But the market's been dumping ever since then. So there's a scenario that maybe the

227
00:22:20,369 --> 00:22:27,269
Trumps are just launching shit coins, launching meme coins. What did Trump launch the day before

228
00:22:27,269 --> 00:22:33,449
he got in office? Trump coin, millennia coin, his wife's launched a shit coin. Scott Besson got on

229
00:22:33,449 --> 00:22:37,109
the national news and said, yeah, no, we're not going to revalue gold and buy Bitcoin,

230
00:22:37,109 --> 00:22:44,049
but we're not we're we're gonna stop selling bitcoin and uh we might confiscate assets to

231
00:22:44,049 --> 00:22:48,769
add to our strategic bitcoin reserve but we won't buy anymore who remembers that interview he gave

232
00:22:48,769 --> 00:22:53,669
like two months ago and then he quickly jumped on twitter and he goes oh well actually maybe i slipped

233
00:22:53,669 --> 00:22:59,189
up on fox news an hour ago uh whatever president trump said is what we're gonna do we're pro bitcoin

234
00:22:59,189 --> 00:23:06,169
it's like oh that's sketchy um so i mean there's also an ulterior explanation and i don't know

235
00:23:06,169 --> 00:23:11,069
what's true that maybe Trump had no idea. Maybe they're just going to confiscate all our assets.

236
00:23:11,569 --> 00:23:17,329
Maybe Tether and Circle having the ability to confiscate assets is just the American version

237
00:23:17,329 --> 00:23:22,409
of a controlled digital currency. And maybe they're just here to grift and pillage and

238
00:23:22,409 --> 00:23:28,769
pander to the Bitcoin crowd to get our votes. Because again, we were promised a strategic

239
00:23:28,769 --> 00:23:35,649
Bitcoin reserve in March. It is now December. There's no Bitcoin reserve. Besant accidentally

240
00:23:35,649 --> 00:23:41,369
slipped up and said we've been selling a ton of Bitcoin. We don't have the report. We don't know

241
00:23:41,369 --> 00:23:47,289
how much Bitcoin America holds. And, uh, we are partnering up with the UK to create a crypto

242
00:23:47,289 --> 00:23:52,629
task force. And, uh, what else have we got happening in America right now that just screams

243
00:23:52,629 --> 00:24:00,309
Orwell? Uh, we've got samurai wallet developers being imprisoned for writing code. What are we

244
00:24:00,309 --> 00:24:07,369
doing here this is insane so there's two stories there i like to think i like to hope that america

245
00:24:07,369 --> 00:24:11,549
is just playing 4d chess and they're buying bitcoin behind closed doors but there's also a

246
00:24:11,549 --> 00:24:15,569
lot of evidence for those who want to paint the other narrative that hey maybe they have no idea

247
00:24:15,569 --> 00:24:20,329
what they're talking about i don't know where do you lie on that debate or discussion or thought

248
00:24:20,329 --> 00:24:26,109
experiment brandon yeah i mean i of course i want to hope that that america is going to do right but

249
00:24:26,109 --> 00:24:30,109
i mean the one thing that they are doing right right now is they're not letting you in this

250
00:24:30,109 --> 00:24:35,269
country. And I mean, I'm going to do all I can to keep it that way, brother, to make sure that

251
00:24:35,269 --> 00:24:41,789
that's not going to happen. But all jokes aside, I mean, I do think this does worry me. The US-UK

252
00:24:41,789 --> 00:24:46,309
partnership, I think, was something that nobody is really talking about. And I don't really see

253
00:24:46,309 --> 00:24:52,169
too many people honestly covering that side of it. And obviously, both what we're talking about

254
00:24:52,169 --> 00:24:56,989
with the UK right now, with the digital ID movement, all of these things, it's like,

255
00:24:56,989 --> 00:25:03,409
why would you partner with the UK when, you know, the whole origination of America was going against

256
00:25:03,409 --> 00:25:09,469
the United Kingdom and how they were just trying to control and tax like crazy. And so that's how

257
00:25:09,469 --> 00:25:14,009
this whole entire country started. And now we're just going to be like, all right, let's get back

258
00:25:14,009 --> 00:25:19,669
and join this crypto task force. And even though they did the Brexit, I mean, if you look at the

259
00:25:19,669 --> 00:25:27,509
the similarities between the UK and the EU. I mean, the UK almost seems like it's worse than

260
00:25:27,509 --> 00:25:32,029
the EU at this point with the surveillance and everything. And I mean, you see the massive

261
00:25:32,029 --> 00:25:37,689
amounts of protests and everything like that. So that task force, I feel like just got swept under

262
00:25:37,689 --> 00:25:44,809
the rug and you don't hear very much media coverage around it. And that's where it worries me,

263
00:25:44,809 --> 00:25:49,769
like and keeps me up at night a little bit just about all that. Of course, you know, I've got the

264
00:25:49,769 --> 00:25:54,989
hope that, you know, the United States is buying Bitcoin. And, you know, the great Australian that

265
00:25:54,989 --> 00:26:01,449
I just had, Chuck Mady, he did say that, you know, there is a giant, you know, it has to be multiple

266
00:26:01,449 --> 00:26:08,549
nation states, big players, central banks buying. So even though we had whales sell more Bitcoin than

267
00:26:08,549 --> 00:26:17,209
we've ever seen in a bull market. We had some giant behemoth buying Bitcoin behind the scenes,

268
00:26:17,349 --> 00:26:22,009
and it hasn't really come out. So, I mean, I've been speculating whether or not it's like Saudi

269
00:26:22,009 --> 00:26:26,749
Arabia. I mean, we have Eric Trump going all over the place saying all of these countries are buying

270
00:26:26,749 --> 00:26:33,389
Bitcoin. They just don't want to announce it. So, I mean, I feel like the Trumps know something,

271
00:26:33,389 --> 00:26:39,629
and uh you know they're launching their own publicly traded bitcoin mining company and so

272
00:26:39,629 --> 00:26:43,969
i would like to think that they're doing this and they you know at least the family knows what's

273
00:26:43,969 --> 00:26:50,369
going on but at the end of the day like you know well have we gotten anything to believe that uh

274
00:26:50,369 --> 00:26:54,849
you know these politicians are going to do right i mean at the end of the day you know i i don't

275
00:26:54,849 --> 00:27:00,149
necessarily trust politicians even if you don't want to consider trump a politician you know he

276
00:27:00,149 --> 00:27:04,749
kind of came in the first four years and said he was going to drain the swamp and do these things.

277
00:27:04,809 --> 00:27:09,929
Of course, we had a great economy, but I think he's learned from his lessons. And I just I think

278
00:27:09,929 --> 00:27:14,849
it's just such a new industry. Like I'm kind of taking the wait and see approach at this point.

279
00:27:14,849 --> 00:27:21,129
So, you know, I think it is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. But you

280
00:27:21,129 --> 00:27:25,309
said something about the bear market, Luke. I mean, you and I are always covering how much

281
00:27:25,309 --> 00:27:29,229
Bitcoin's getting taken off exchanges, the buying pressures that we're seeing.

282
00:27:29,509 --> 00:27:34,709
Something that I think that is interesting that I just saw was during this recent crash,

283
00:27:34,889 --> 00:27:39,389
the number of wallets with 10 million sats or 0.1 Bitcoin actually decreased,

284
00:27:39,609 --> 00:27:44,629
where the number of institutions with a thousand Bitcoin or more went parabolic during this dip.

285
00:27:44,809 --> 00:27:48,269
So it seems like the big dogs are coming in and buying more Bitcoin.

286
00:27:48,769 --> 00:27:52,249
But I'm curious, do you think that we're in a bear market now?

287
00:27:52,249 --> 00:27:56,049
and that supply shock is still a little ways away?

288
00:27:57,549 --> 00:27:58,949
I honestly don't know.

289
00:27:59,889 --> 00:28:01,889
If I'm being completely honest with you,

290
00:28:02,349 --> 00:28:05,429
I think normally I like to think

291
00:28:05,429 --> 00:28:08,889
that I've been somewhat directionally correct

292
00:28:08,889 --> 00:28:11,389
with where the Bitcoin price is going to be

293
00:28:11,389 --> 00:28:12,289
in the next three months.

294
00:28:12,589 --> 00:28:14,269
Now, I never talk about short-term price.

295
00:28:14,389 --> 00:28:15,849
You never talk about short-term price

296
00:28:15,849 --> 00:28:17,429
because I think neither of our channels

297
00:28:17,429 --> 00:28:18,389
are about trading Bitcoin.

298
00:28:18,389 --> 00:28:21,369
But I like to say, look, I have no idea.

299
00:28:21,369 --> 00:28:27,329
And I say that publicly all the time, but privately, like directionally, like I, I like

300
00:28:27,329 --> 00:28:32,729
to think that I've been somewhat like close to predicting or having a grasp on where we're

301
00:28:32,729 --> 00:28:33,349
going next.

302
00:28:33,789 --> 00:28:38,489
But right now, like the next three months, I'm more uncertain than I've ever been.

303
00:28:38,949 --> 00:28:40,729
I could make a bear argument.

304
00:28:40,949 --> 00:28:42,489
I can make a bull argument.

305
00:28:42,769 --> 00:28:47,969
You could like, if you had to ask me, honestly, I'm probably like 70% thinking that we're

306
00:28:47,969 --> 00:28:54,269
still in a bull market and 30% of me says, you know, maybe we're in a bear market.

307
00:28:54,449 --> 00:29:00,729
It doesn't mean 75% correction, uh, you know, 12 months down like traditional bear markets.

308
00:29:00,729 --> 00:29:05,029
But I think there's a 30% chance that we're going to be stuck under a hundred for the

309
00:29:05,029 --> 00:29:07,089
next six months, maybe.

310
00:29:07,529 --> 00:29:15,029
So I think my bear argument, the TA traders and the trading bros who are convinced we're

311
00:29:15,029 --> 00:29:20,469
a bear market, they are right that when Bitcoin's gone below the 50 week moving average on the weekly

312
00:29:20,469 --> 00:29:27,829
chart that has spelled a bear market. So we typically go down for 12 months and we correct

313
00:29:27,829 --> 00:29:37,029
by 70% that happened in 2017 happened in 2021. And if you look at Bitcoin and if you think

314
00:29:37,029 --> 00:29:43,909
Bitcoin is in a four year cycle, so if you think Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after a halving,

315
00:29:43,909 --> 00:29:50,709
well, we just had a halving in 2024. If 126 K was the top, that means Bitcoin would have taught

316
00:29:51,509 --> 00:29:56,549
18 months after the halving. And that's exactly what it's done in 2021 and 2017.

317
00:29:57,189 --> 00:30:05,349
So like there is like data there to like suggests, you know, maybe Bitcoin could literally be in a

318
00:30:05,349 --> 00:30:10,869
bear market as dirty as it is to say, you could even make an argument. The S and P 500 has gone

319
00:30:10,869 --> 00:30:14,289
straight up only for at least the past six to nine months.

320
00:30:14,469 --> 00:30:18,969
So maybe it's due for a 10% pullback or just the 20% pullback.

321
00:30:19,189 --> 00:30:20,469
Like the chart looks ridiculous.

322
00:30:20,469 --> 00:30:21,669
It's literally gone straight up.

323
00:30:21,889 --> 00:30:25,509
We have nothing more than a 5% pullback for six months in a row.

324
00:30:26,009 --> 00:30:31,069
So, I mean, Bitcoin's crashed from 126 to 80,

325
00:30:31,729 --> 00:30:36,729
like 35% and the S and P 500 never moved down more than 3%.

326
00:30:36,729 --> 00:30:42,649
3%. It's really traded within 5% of a new all time high during that correction. So then you can ask

327
00:30:42,649 --> 00:30:49,769
yourself, okay, if stocks trade down 10%, 20%, just a normal pullback in a bull market, what the hell

328
00:30:49,769 --> 00:30:56,329
does Bitcoin do? But just if it just dropped 35% while stocks did nothing, I think you can make a

329
00:30:56,329 --> 00:31:02,729
bear argument. You could say AI's extenders. Uh, I mean, Michael Burry has been wrong about a lot

330
00:31:02,729 --> 00:31:06,449
lot of things he called Bitcoin, uh, tulip mania this week.

331
00:31:06,489 --> 00:31:11,629
Uh, so I think that kind of diminishes his credibility when he's shorting Tesla

332
00:31:11,949 --> 00:31:14,689
and Palantir, but there is no denying it.

333
00:31:14,689 --> 00:31:17,549
Like Tesla and Palantir, they are extended.

334
00:31:17,889 --> 00:31:31,119
Uh even if you believe in the AI bubble like you can have pullbacks Uh so look I can make a bearish argument Uh but I you can also make a bullish argument on the flip side of things

335
00:31:31,119 --> 00:31:38,659
You could say that, Hey, don't you think it's interesting that JP Morgan is recirculating a 45

336
00:31:38,659 --> 00:31:47,819
day old report from MSCI? That's kind of irrelevant. Uh, on October 10th, literally minutes before we

337
00:31:47,819 --> 00:31:52,799
have that massive flash crash don't you think it's strange that jp morgan is publicly attacking

338
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:59,259
micro strategy and funding micro strategy and then two days later they released their very own very

339
00:31:59,259 --> 00:32:07,679
first bitcoin product which is a bitcoin uh 1.5x leverage note on top of blackrock's ibit and then

340
00:32:07,679 --> 00:32:14,379
in the same week bank of america adopts bitcoin uh we've got charles schwab adopting bitcoin and

341
00:32:14,379 --> 00:32:20,139
And then there was another massive bank that Vanguard came out and ended a two year attack

342
00:32:20,139 --> 00:32:25,879
on Bitcoin and said, oh, well actually, yeah, we said Bitcoin should be a part of a portfolio

343
00:32:25,879 --> 00:32:30,259
two years ago when the ETS were launched, but here's your Bitcoin ETF on the big silver

344
00:32:30,259 --> 00:32:31,259
platter.

345
00:32:31,259 --> 00:32:32,259
We were wrong.

346
00:32:32,259 --> 00:32:33,259
Sorry.

347
00:32:33,259 --> 00:32:37,659
That all came out in the same week days after JP Morgan was attacking Bitcoin.

348
00:32:37,659 --> 00:32:41,599
So on the flip side of things, you can make a bullish argument and you can say, Hey, it's

349
00:32:41,599 --> 00:32:47,359
It's kind of strange that Bitcoin traded above 100k for 200 days and then all of a sudden

350
00:32:47,359 --> 00:32:55,159
you see this coordinated fudge, Morgan Stanley made $100 million short in Bitcoin and then

351
00:32:55,159 --> 00:33:02,219
all of the banks flipped bullish on Bitcoin within the space of three days and we've got

352
00:33:02,219 --> 00:33:07,219
Santa Claus rally coming, Q4 has historically been bullish for not only Bitcoin but also

353
00:33:07,219 --> 00:33:14,659
the stock market. And then you've also got $2,000 Trump stimmy checks coming in mid-2026.

354
00:33:15,299 --> 00:33:21,139
Midterm elections are coming in 2026. Trump wants to juice the markets heading into those

355
00:33:21,139 --> 00:33:26,259
midterm elections. You've got Jerome Powell leaving the Federal Reserve in a couple of months.

356
00:33:26,259 --> 00:33:31,219
And apparently we've got a bullish pro Bitcoin dude being installed into the Fed.

357
00:33:31,219 --> 00:33:39,299
Last bull run, we had exchanges blow up. You saw FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, you name it. But the true

358
00:33:39,299 --> 00:33:44,579
power of Bitcoin is getting it off an exchange into cold storage. This bull run, I'm trusting

359
00:33:44,579 --> 00:33:51,459
Trezor, the company that's been around for over a decade. And they just had a brand new release

360
00:33:51,459 --> 00:33:58,579
of the best hardware wallet in the game, the Trezor Safe7. It's got the first audible secure

361
00:33:58,579 --> 00:34:05,299
element. No other hardware wallet has this. On top of it, I travel a lot, so I need an easy way

362
00:34:05,299 --> 00:34:12,239
to connect my Bitcoin hardware wallet to my laptop, phone, what have you. Therefore, it is the easiest

363
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:17,999
way and has the best connectivity to access your Bitcoin. This is truly how you become your own

364
00:34:17,999 --> 00:34:23,559
bank. And the best way to do that is with a Trezor Safe7. So you can go to the affiliate link down

365
00:34:23,559 --> 00:34:29,979
below and get yourself one right now and do it quickly because they are flying off the shelves

366
00:34:29,979 --> 00:34:35,939
folks so do it with the easiest and best way to get your bitcoin off exchanges so go to the

367
00:34:35,939 --> 00:34:41,599
affiliate link down below get yourself a treasure save seven and get your bitcoin off exchanges in

368
00:34:41,599 --> 00:34:47,219
the easiest way possible all right enough from me let's get back to the show those midterm elections

369
00:34:47,219 --> 00:34:52,119
you've got jerome power leaving the federal reserve in a couple of months and apparently

370
00:34:52,119 --> 00:34:58,839
we've got a bullish pro Bitcoin dude being installed into the fed. You've got QT ending

371
00:34:58,839 --> 00:35:06,599
in December. That kind of implies QE is coming. Global central banks did more rate cuts last month

372
00:35:06,599 --> 00:35:13,239
than they did in 2008. So you can also make an incredibly bullish argument that honestly,

373
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:17,559
like liquidity over the next three to six months looks as if it's going to increase.

374
00:35:17,559 --> 00:35:25,279
So what's really interesting about all of that is, uh, I also think the four-year cycle,

375
00:35:25,279 --> 00:35:29,739
the four-year liquidity cycle is actually kind of being extended. So I'm not an expert

376
00:35:29,739 --> 00:35:35,159
on this. So again, caveat, but like the way the U S is issuing debt, rebuying debt and

377
00:35:35,159 --> 00:35:40,439
issuing debt on the longer end of the yield curve that kind of like extends the liquidity

378
00:35:40,439 --> 00:35:45,039
cycle a little bit as well. So you could also make an argument, and this is why I still

379
00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:51,519
think there's 70% chance we're in a bull market still, despite all of the four-year cycle bros,

380
00:35:51,519 --> 00:35:57,219
like Ben Cullen, million followers on YouTube. He's convinced we're in a bear market. You've got

381
00:35:57,219 --> 00:36:04,859
Bob Lucas, the four-year cycle guru. He's pretty bearish these days. He sounds at least 90% bearish.

382
00:36:05,299 --> 00:36:11,499
You've got Leia Hepburn. She's convinced we're in a bear market. You've got a lot of notable big

383
00:36:11,499 --> 00:36:17,179
names convinced we're in a bear market. I still think there's a 70% chance we're in a bull market.

384
00:36:17,619 --> 00:36:22,599
I mean, if you're just looking at charts, absolutely. And looks horrific and looks bearish,

385
00:36:22,599 --> 00:36:30,279
but I actually like think the Bitcoin four year cycles, I think they a hundred percent don't

386
00:36:30,279 --> 00:36:35,519
happen because of a power law. Uh, but, but I think they happen. I think they happen because

387
00:36:35,519 --> 00:36:40,479
of a liquidity cycle. And I think it's a little bit liquidity cycle and a little bit halving,

388
00:36:40,479 --> 00:36:49,759
But I think now that the halving is getting smaller and smaller, I think the liquidity cycle is making up a bigger and a bigger explanation of what drives Bitcoin.

389
00:36:50,259 --> 00:36:56,059
And I think all of these indicators, even the PMI liquidity cycle, hasn't expanded yet.

390
00:36:56,139 --> 00:37:02,539
You've got all these indicators suggesting the next six months is going to be really positive for liquidity.

391
00:37:03,079 --> 00:37:05,739
And we know that Bitcoin is the most correlated thing to liquidity.

392
00:37:05,939 --> 00:37:07,399
So I just talked for 20 minutes.

393
00:37:08,119 --> 00:37:10,619
What do you think about the four-year cycle debate, Brandon?

394
00:37:10,699 --> 00:37:10,999
What do you think?

395
00:37:10,999 --> 00:37:14,559
Luke, I don't know if you farted or not over there, but it smells something.

396
00:37:14,679 --> 00:37:16,419
It smells a little fishy over here, dude.

397
00:37:16,419 --> 00:37:20,259
I think I'm smelling some price manipulation is what it's sounding like, brother.

398
00:37:20,399 --> 00:37:22,899
Because, I mean, you lined everything out.

399
00:37:22,999 --> 00:37:27,799
And, I mean, I did a full breakdown on, you know, the MSTR and JP Morgan,

400
00:37:28,299 --> 00:37:30,439
Morgan Stanley coordinated attack.

401
00:37:30,539 --> 00:37:35,019
And, I mean, I just don't believe in that many coincidences to believe that,

402
00:37:35,019 --> 00:37:42,299
oh, you know, MSTR has been having potentially one of the worst years it's ever had while Bitcoin is running up.

403
00:37:42,899 --> 00:37:46,859
And then, you know, all this FUD just comes out 45 days later.

404
00:37:46,859 --> 00:37:56,299
And then JP Morgan releases a competing product to JPR to MSTR's preferred stock options and, you know, preferred notes and everything like that.

405
00:37:56,379 --> 00:38:00,399
So, I mean, it just the coincidence is I don't believe in a man.

406
00:38:00,399 --> 00:38:13,319
And so and when you get into this game and you now have, you know, Bitcoin starting to get financialized, this is what happens is, you know, when everybody starts to think, oh, you know, you're going to have the four year cycles.

407
00:38:13,319 --> 00:38:15,599
It's going to be uptober and moonvember.

408
00:38:15,779 --> 00:38:17,619
And I mean, I was I was privy to that.

409
00:38:17,619 --> 00:38:23,799
I definitely thought that we would have a good Q4 and I thought everything was looking bullish towards the end of this year.

410
00:38:24,519 --> 00:38:27,739
And I was just waiting because we were chopping for such a long time.

411
00:38:27,739 --> 00:38:38,319
But, you know, once you start to get Wall Street come in and try to financialize Bitcoin like they're doing, this is where, you know, the big players now they have so much money to toss around.

412
00:38:38,439 --> 00:38:41,879
They're the ones seemingly starting to control the market. Right.

413
00:38:41,939 --> 00:38:47,539
I mean, the whales have been historically selling every single bull run like we're getting in.

414
00:38:47,919 --> 00:38:53,159
You know, maybe 100K was that barrier for a lot of them to come in and they sold a lot.

415
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:59,159
uh you know we've never seen whales sell as much bitcoin as we have and that would crater the market

416
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:04,519
in different time and like previous bull cycles so i thought it was actually pretty bullish that

417
00:39:04,519 --> 00:39:08,999
we were chopping for quite some time when we were looking at the on-chain data just of how much

418
00:39:08,999 --> 00:39:14,359
selling was going on by these whales but now we had the big players coming in and i think now

419
00:39:14,359 --> 00:39:19,779
they're getting a lot of control and buying power that it makes sense that they're going to start to

420
00:39:19,779 --> 00:39:25,859
try to manipulate things. And, you know, it's not like JP Morgan has ever manipulated a market or

421
00:39:25,859 --> 00:39:30,419
anything like that before, you know, it's not like they didn't get sued for, I think, what,

422
00:39:30,479 --> 00:39:35,939
like a billion dollars or something crazy for manipulating the silver market or anything like

423
00:39:35,939 --> 00:39:40,499
that. I mean, don't dig into any of that, you know, because, you know, you're not going to

424
00:39:40,499 --> 00:39:47,479
like what you find. But, you know, watching all of this makes it very interesting. And do you think

425
00:39:47,479 --> 00:39:54,439
that this is also partially a play to attack companies that are putting Bitcoin on the balance

426
00:39:54,439 --> 00:40:01,419
sheet as well? Because, you know, last year when Trump got elected, there were 64. There's like

427
00:40:01,419 --> 00:40:06,479
close to 210 right now at the time of this recording. So we've just seen a parabolic

428
00:40:06,479 --> 00:40:11,319
increase with that. And it's a great idea in a bull market. But when you're starting to get it

429
00:40:11,319 --> 00:40:15,519
off the ground in a bear market, it makes it a little bit more difficult. So do you think

430
00:40:15,519 --> 00:40:20,719
maybe just maybe this was an attack on some of these other guys that said hey you know we're

431
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:27,899
gonna attack the big guy like micro strategy and michael saylor uh but uh just essentially to make

432
00:40:27,899 --> 00:40:34,459
all the small guys watch out for for what's to come ahead yes i made a video maybe four months

433
00:40:34,459 --> 00:40:42,299
ago i thought it was strange that the day before strategy was potentially up for inclusion into the

434
00:40:42,299 --> 00:40:48,179
S and P 500 NASDAQ came out and they actually said, you know what, we're going to change the

435
00:40:48,179 --> 00:40:53,919
way that we look at these Bitcoin treasury companies, essentially making it more difficult

436
00:40:53,919 --> 00:40:59,139
for companies to get included into the NASDAQ. At the time I made a live stream on the day and I

437
00:40:59,139 --> 00:41:06,319
said, this is interesting. This is even an attack on the treasury companies, or this is creating a

438
00:41:06,319 --> 00:41:13,879
monopoly for strategy to be the one big dog in the indexes, because right now, despite all of the

439
00:41:13,879 --> 00:41:20,839
FUD, strategy is the one of the only Bitcoin treasury companies inside the NASDAQ. So that

440
00:41:20,839 --> 00:41:27,379
means what I think, well, I mean, it's not, I think it's basic economics. If strategy is one

441
00:41:27,379 --> 00:41:31,899
of the only Bitcoin treasury companies in the NASDAQ, that means all of that capital, that

442
00:41:31,899 --> 00:41:38,839
passive capital that flows into all of the stocks in the NASDAQ 100, but also anybody looking for a

443
00:41:38,839 --> 00:41:44,639
treasury company play, all their money now goes to strategy. So it creates this monopoly-like effect.

444
00:41:44,639 --> 00:41:52,139
It creates this concentration. And my hypothesis months ago when this happened was this could be

445
00:41:52,139 --> 00:41:58,059
setting up America's strategic Bitcoin reserve. So we were just talking about, okay, it's been

446
00:41:58,059 --> 00:42:02,859
nine months since Trump signed the EO, where is the strategic Bitcoin reserve?

447
00:42:03,159 --> 00:42:04,839
Well, what if it is Michael Saylor?

448
00:42:05,139 --> 00:42:07,939
What if strategy is the strategic Bitcoin reserve?

449
00:42:08,299 --> 00:42:12,119
What if, you know, one day Michael gets a tap on his shoulder and he says, all

450
00:42:12,119 --> 00:42:16,719
right, Michael, America can't go out there and buy a million Bitcoin on the open

451
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,759
market. We'd move the price too much.

452
00:42:18,999 --> 00:42:22,719
Like he said earlier, there's only 2 million Bitcoin left on exchanges,

453
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,059
depending on how you measure it.

454
00:42:24,659 --> 00:42:27,559
What if it's easy to just say, all right, Saylor, you're nationalized.

455
00:42:27,559 --> 00:42:31,559
your company's nationalized the Bitcoin on your balance sheet, handed over to the Bitcoin

456
00:42:31,559 --> 00:42:36,839
government for X price. I mean, that doesn't sound that crazy. I mean, it might have sounded crazy a

457
00:42:36,839 --> 00:42:43,399
year ago, but I mean, the US government just set the precedent of nationalizing strategically

458
00:42:43,399 --> 00:42:48,999
important companies. They've got a 10% stake in Intel. I believe they also, there was something

459
00:42:48,999 --> 00:42:54,839
funny going on with a few of the rare earth companies as well in America. I don't remember

460
00:42:54,839 --> 00:43:01,239
be the exact headline but then you've also got what two months ago the american government buying

461
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:08,359
40 billion dollars of argentinian pesos the worst fiat currency you could ever buy why are they

462
00:43:08,359 --> 00:43:14,159
buying it they haven't given us the reason but that is all a strategic play argentina has a

463
00:43:14,159 --> 00:43:20,159
stranglehold on a lot of the rare earth minerals that are mined on the american continent the whole

464
00:43:20,159 --> 00:43:27,019
continent. So that is only a strategic play. So is it outrageous for them to one day say,

465
00:43:27,199 --> 00:43:32,099
look, Michael, you've got a million Bitcoin on strategies balance sheet, which they will one day.

466
00:43:32,559 --> 00:43:38,999
That's what? 5% of the supply? I don't think it's outlandish for that to get nationalized.

467
00:43:39,299 --> 00:43:44,519
So I actually forgot the original question, but reign me back in there. Was there something I

468
00:43:44,519 --> 00:43:49,819
didn't answer? I got distracted when I... No, you basically were lining out the potential of the

469
00:43:49,819 --> 00:43:54,239
the coordinated attack and like bringing it in with wall street doing the funny games but you

470
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:59,099
did line out you know something interesting there uh and and i think it's all connected with the

471
00:43:59,099 --> 00:44:04,739
argentinian play because you know a big tariff that the trump that the trump admin actually

472
00:44:04,739 --> 00:44:10,819
didn't put on with china was the rare earth metals because of how much that china has for the the

473
00:44:10,819 --> 00:44:16,599
exportation of all of these rare earth metals and the only one that they get any other rare earth

474
00:44:16,599 --> 00:44:22,939
metals that are used in all of these various electronics from is Argentina. So it is connected

475
00:44:22,939 --> 00:44:30,179
in somewhat. And these tariff plays have been essentially this monetary war between China and

476
00:44:30,179 --> 00:44:34,619
the US. And so I think all of it has been interconnected in a sense. And it's really

477
00:44:34,619 --> 00:44:41,439
interesting, you know, watching how I guess this political clash seemingly plays out. But,

478
00:44:41,439 --> 00:44:57,219
But, you know, with this, right, I've kind of gotten the theory as well that China has some sort of incentive to attack Bitcoin now as well, because we've seen, you know, China launch the CBDC that we're talking about earlier.

479
00:44:57,219 --> 00:45:11,579
And, you know, I'm not sure how much you're diving into the China side of things, but, you know, they had the second most, you know, they had the second most Bitcoin on the balance sheet for any nation behind the United States.

480
00:45:11,579 --> 00:45:22,839
Then the United States confiscated another like 190 or something thousand Bitcoin to put them a little over 350,000 Bitcoin on the U.S. balance sheet.

481
00:45:22,939 --> 00:45:23,759
Allegedly, right.

482
00:45:23,799 --> 00:45:27,199
If they haven't been selling it, you know, it's hard to verify all these things.

483
00:45:27,299 --> 00:45:31,139
But according to Bitcoin Treasuries dot net, I think it's a great site.

484
00:45:31,259 --> 00:45:34,699
But they, you know, say the U.S. has about like 350 or so.

485
00:45:34,699 --> 00:45:43,019
But the unique thing of this is this happened right after the UK and the US formed this crypto task force.

486
00:45:43,619 --> 00:45:47,259
It was a Chinese citizen who was in the UK.

487
00:45:47,759 --> 00:45:51,259
And then for some reason, this confiscation happened.

488
00:45:51,259 --> 00:45:54,439
And then it went on the United States balance sheet.

489
00:45:54,899 --> 00:46:01,739
So I have this theory that China was probably a little bit upset with that because they want that Bitcoin, right?

490
00:46:01,739 --> 00:46:05,439
They wanted that other 150 to 180,000.

491
00:46:05,599 --> 00:46:07,659
I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head.

492
00:46:08,039 --> 00:46:13,579
But, you know, the Chinese government potentially has, you know, something to play with.

493
00:46:13,639 --> 00:46:24,339
And then when you saw that giant sell off that we saw here recently, a lot of it is lined out to a whale that was in the Asian trading timeline.

494
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:28,339
So if you line out the, you know, just the time zones and everything.

495
00:46:28,339 --> 00:46:31,839
So I think all of this is kind of creating this monetary war.

496
00:46:31,959 --> 00:46:37,639
And I feel like a lot's going on behind the scenes that we're not really getting a lot of coverage about.

497
00:46:37,919 --> 00:46:48,219
So do you think that there's an aspect there where China would potentially try to crash the Bitcoin price in order to use it as almost an indirect attack at the United States?

498
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:51,379
Oh, that's spicy.

499
00:46:51,379 --> 00:47:11,488
I think so I I saw no I haven looked into whether the Bitcoin that America sees was the same Bitcoin that the UK seized because there there headlines circulating a couple of months ago that the UK sees 60 Bitcoin from that Chinese lady

500
00:47:11,488 --> 00:47:16,708
who is inside the UK. So I don't know if those two seizures are related. I don't have the data on it,

501
00:47:16,708 --> 00:47:24,028
but I do know that China was pissed, uh, about the 60,000 Bitcoin that was seized by the UK.

502
00:47:24,028 --> 00:47:30,288
and they were like publicly like, hey, that's our Bitcoin. Give it back. So I think like there's

503
00:47:30,288 --> 00:47:35,888
something there. One of my absolute favorite things about Bitcoin is meeting all of you in

504
00:47:35,888 --> 00:47:41,368
person. So mark your calendars for February 28th and come down to where I've called home for the

505
00:47:41,368 --> 00:47:47,568
past eight years, Tampa, Florida. The Bitcoin Bay Foundation is putting on this sound money soiree.

506
00:47:47,668 --> 00:47:53,608
It's the third annual. It's a night of Bitcoin, poker, an open bar and a silent auction.

507
00:47:54,028 --> 00:48:00,048
All support will go to Bitcoin Bay, a nonprofit that is creating a circular economy down in Tampa Bay, Florida.

508
00:48:00,508 --> 00:48:02,968
They're doing absolutely great things.

509
00:48:03,088 --> 00:48:07,048
And it's the Bitcoin community that I've called home for such a long time.

510
00:48:07,148 --> 00:48:09,448
And these guys are absolutely crushing it.

511
00:48:09,508 --> 00:48:11,688
So please do anything you can to support.

512
00:48:12,108 --> 00:48:12,948
Buy your tickets today.

513
00:48:13,048 --> 00:48:17,928
You can use promo code GREENCANDLE to get 10% off your Sound Money Soiree tickets.

514
00:48:18,068 --> 00:48:19,788
So do you know anything about Bitcoin?

515
00:48:20,128 --> 00:48:20,428
No.

516
00:48:20,428 --> 00:48:22,928
You guys can come down and see this ugly mug.

517
00:48:22,928 --> 00:48:28,468
Come boogie on the dance floor shake it and now that bitcoins over 100k you could do it all with your girlfriends

518
00:48:28,468 --> 00:48:31,288
All right, I'm that for me. Let's get back to the show

519
00:48:31,288 --> 00:48:38,768
Uh about the 60,000 bitcoin that was seized by the uk

520
00:48:38,768 --> 00:48:45,688
And they were like publicly like hey, that's our bitcoin give it back. Uh, so I think like there's something there

521
00:48:45,688 --> 00:48:48,428
I also think that

522
00:48:48,428 --> 00:48:51,028
Uh china and america

523
00:48:51,028 --> 00:48:56,868
I think like that's the power struggle right now. If you believe America has 190,000 Bitcoin

524
00:48:56,868 --> 00:49:01,488
Well, China has the second most amount of bitcoins about 190,000 coins as well

525
00:49:01,668 --> 00:49:07,248
So there is something there like they are clearly battling over who can hold the most Bitcoin

526
00:49:07,248 --> 00:49:08,988
I

527
00:49:08,988 --> 00:49:15,128
I honestly don't have a strong opinion on what's going on with China and Bitcoin and America and Bitcoin right now

528
00:49:15,128 --> 00:49:15,948
I mean

529
00:49:15,948 --> 00:49:20,828
I can make a strong argument and a strong conspiracy theory for

530
00:49:20,828 --> 00:49:26,228
either way. Like if you look at the amount of gold that China has been mining and importing over the

531
00:49:26,228 --> 00:49:34,528
past 20 years, it's, it's pretty much like public knowledge that China has 20,000 metric tons of

532
00:49:34,528 --> 00:49:39,708
gold in the country. Uh, whereas they publicly say, Oh, we've only got 2000 tons. That's the

533
00:49:39,708 --> 00:49:45,168
public holdings of the PBOC, the people's bank of China. So like, there's a theory there that

534
00:49:45,168 --> 00:49:50,168
China's going heavy into gold and they're going to try to like attack Bitcoin. You know, they kick

535
00:49:50,168 --> 00:49:56,208
the miners out of the country and they're going the gold way. But then you could, and you know,

536
00:49:56,268 --> 00:49:59,628
it makes, like we talked about earlier, it makes sense for America to go the Bitcoin way,

537
00:49:59,748 --> 00:50:05,248
helps the US dollar with stable coins buying US debt. But then on the flip side, like I've made

538
00:50:05,248 --> 00:50:10,128
a ton of videos saying, don't you think it's strange that the kingdom of Bhutan and Laos

539
00:50:10,128 --> 00:50:15,628
are both these tiny little countries that sit on the border of China and both their governments

540
00:50:15,628 --> 00:50:22,448
to openly and publicly mine in Bitcoin. Like, is there some involvement there? Like these countries

541
00:50:22,448 --> 00:50:29,728
are tiny. I, I'm sure China has some sway or control over these countries. Hong Kong is

542
00:50:29,728 --> 00:50:37,708
controlled by China. They've got a Bitcoin spot ETF and, uh, publicly Beijing officials are okay

543
00:50:37,708 --> 00:50:43,408
with Hong Kong becoming the global crypto hub. Like there's also an alternative answer here that

544
00:50:43,408 --> 00:50:49,768
says, hey, is China playing 4D chess? And are they secretly still mining a lot of Bitcoin and

545
00:50:49,768 --> 00:50:54,908
getting all their neighbors to mine it? I honestly don't know. I have no idea what's going on there.

546
00:50:54,908 --> 00:51:00,088
But I think you can make an argument either way. Yeah, there's definitely something there. I think

547
00:51:00,088 --> 00:51:04,708
that there is some sort of monetary, I guess, warfare back and forth. But I think at the end

548
00:51:04,708 --> 00:51:09,248
of the day, China just wants to be recognized by the United States as like an equal and not

549
00:51:09,248 --> 00:51:15,148
lesser as the like the US is the main power. And, you know, I've heard a lot of different

550
00:51:15,148 --> 00:51:19,688
theories on all of this. And, you know, it's just an interesting thought experiment. And it seems

551
00:51:19,688 --> 00:51:24,148
like Bitcoin's at the center. But, you know, you already mentioned it, you make a lot of videos

552
00:51:24,148 --> 00:51:29,108
here and there, Luke, a video that you love to hit on is how much Bitcoin you need to retire.

553
00:51:29,108 --> 00:51:34,108
So I think that this is, you know, an interesting topic. And, you know, it always gets the people

554
00:51:34,108 --> 00:51:43,128
going here. But you recently have made a full on move down to Latin America. So because they won't

555
00:51:43,128 --> 00:51:50,308
allow you here in the good, the great free country of the United States. But, you know,

556
00:51:50,668 --> 00:51:57,068
why don't you dive into, you know, I guess how you're looking at this as what a young chap with

557
00:51:57,068 --> 00:52:03,788
a 40 year old body that you've got going on here on utilizing Bitcoin as your retirement plan.

558
00:52:04,108 --> 00:52:11,928
Yeah. I mean, I think, I think you honestly need a lot less Bitcoin to retire than, than

559
00:52:11,928 --> 00:52:17,648
most people think I like, that's my first principles, uh, answer. And like a lot of people will hear

560
00:52:17,648 --> 00:52:23,288
the number that I'm about to say, and they're going to think you're crazy. But I, I think

561
00:52:23,288 --> 00:52:27,748
people only think the numbers that I talk about are crazy because they don't have the

562
00:52:27,748 --> 00:52:33,608
context. They don't actually understand how to value Bitcoin. They don't understand

563
00:52:33,608 --> 00:52:39,908
how to value a new money and a new technology. So like from first principles, I think a lot of

564
00:52:39,908 --> 00:52:45,428
people just blindly believe the power law. I think they just blindly believe that Bitcoin is digital

565
00:52:45,428 --> 00:52:53,168
gold. Maybe it's worth 20 trillion or 30 trillion one day, maybe it's worth a million dollars or even

566
00:52:53,168 --> 00:52:58,948
two million dollars in their lifetime. And they think that Bitcoin succeeded and that's, it's like

567
00:52:58,948 --> 00:53:03,748
end game because they see gold at 20 or 30 trillion. They think, okay, Bitcoin's better.

568
00:53:03,748 --> 00:53:10,228
Bitcoin could be 30 trillion, 40 trillion. And I agree with most people. If Bitcoin is just going

569
00:53:10,228 --> 00:53:16,148
to be worth a million bucks or $2 million a coin, then you can't retire on 0.1 Bitcoin.

570
00:53:16,148 --> 00:53:20,788
Cause if Bitcoin's a million bucks, that's a hundred thousand dollars. You can't really retire

571
00:53:20,788 --> 00:53:27,908
on that. You need a little bit more. So that's kind of like my first caveat. You need to value

572
00:53:27,908 --> 00:53:32,708
Bitcoin correctly. And I've triggered a lot of people with this statement. And there's going to

573
00:53:32,708 --> 00:53:37,588
be a lot of people who turn off the interview right now, if I haven't already. Um, by, but,

574
00:53:37,588 --> 00:53:43,908
but I genuinely think a $4 million Bitcoin by 2040 is a failure. And people hear that and they're

575
00:53:43,908 --> 00:53:50,068
like, what's $4 million. That's such a big number. That's a 40 X from here. And they just stopped

576
00:53:50,068 --> 00:53:55,668
listening to me. They call me an idiot. They say, I don't understand math. And I like to walk through

577
00:53:55,668 --> 00:54:03,348
a thought experiment. If Bitcoin's of $4 million by 2040, that would mean that Bitcoin has a market

578
00:54:03,348 --> 00:54:08,948
cap of $84 trillion. Right? Now that's what the power law predicts. Now, if you start thinking

579
00:54:08,948 --> 00:54:15,428
about things from first principles, $4 million, $84 trillion market cap. Today, there's $900

580
00:54:15,428 --> 00:54:22,548
trillion of wealth and debt in the world. $900 trillion of money is looking for a place to be

581
00:54:22,548 --> 00:54:28,388
stored. It's looking for a store of value. So if Bitcoin is 84 trillion, it's less than 9% of

582
00:54:28,388 --> 00:54:36,748
global wealth after 32 years of being around. Now you obviously, I think you need a global wealth

583
00:54:36,748 --> 00:54:42,268
is growing. It's growing by 5, 10% a year. It's growing a lot. Michael Saylor thinks that global

584
00:54:42,268 --> 00:54:50,928
wealth is going to be 4,000 trillion by 2045. So that's a forex in global wealth. If you think

585
00:54:50,928 --> 00:54:58,468
global wealth is going to be 3000 trillion. So three X's from here. Um, that assumes that

586
00:54:58,468 --> 00:55:06,788
Bitcoin is going to be like 3% of global wealth in 2040. Now you really start thinking about things

587
00:55:06,788 --> 00:55:12,428
and you're like, okay, $4 million Bitcoin sounds big, but in that world where Bitcoin's $4 million,

588
00:55:12,808 --> 00:55:19,908
it's an $84 trillion market cap after 32 years, that assumes that you've still got $300 trillion

589
00:55:19,908 --> 00:55:25,148
dollars of fiat money. That means fiat money is three times bigger than Bitcoin in 32 years.

590
00:55:25,348 --> 00:55:30,828
That also assumes that global debt is like 400 trillion. That assumes that there's a

591
00:55:30,828 --> 00:55:37,548
government bombs market of multiple hundreds of trillions of dollars. Like, do we really think

592
00:55:37,548 --> 00:55:46,588
that in 15 years from now, government bombs? Why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece

593
00:55:46,588 --> 00:55:52,508
of paper. It doesn't make sense. You need a foolproof solution and I've got it for you. You

594
00:55:52,508 --> 00:55:58,048
could get this as low as $25 and if you use promo code green candle, you can get 10% off.

595
00:55:58,048 --> 00:56:04,108
Being around for 12 years, they've engineered the perfect and most easy to use solution.

596
00:56:04,548 --> 00:56:09,948
I've partnered with CryptoSteel to offer for you guys just that. It is the cheapest and most secure

597
00:56:09,948 --> 00:56:15,548
way to store your C phrase. I don't know about you guys, but I don't have too many things where

598
00:56:15,548 --> 00:56:20,748
I think one ton is going to fall on this, but it could survive all of that and more.

599
00:56:21,428 --> 00:56:23,968
So go to CryptoSteel.com.

600
00:56:24,048 --> 00:56:25,868
You can use promo code GreenCandle.

601
00:56:26,048 --> 00:56:30,668
You can get 10% off your entire order if you go there today.

602
00:56:31,108 --> 00:56:35,988
So go ahead and protect your generational wealth and do it with CryptoSteel.

603
00:56:36,308 --> 00:56:37,668
All right, enough from me.

604
00:56:37,848 --> 00:56:38,628
Back to the show.

605
00:56:38,628 --> 00:56:45,908
multiple hundreds of trillions of dollars. Like, do we really think that in 15 years from now,

606
00:56:47,428 --> 00:56:54,708
government bombs as they are so horrifically, they are terrible investment. Do we really think

607
00:56:54,708 --> 00:57:00,308
they're still going to be three times larger than the Bitcoin market cap? I mean, government bombs

608
00:57:00,308 --> 00:57:06,548
just lost 50% of their value in the past five years. The TLT, the U S treasury bond, it's down

609
00:57:06,548 --> 00:57:14,148
50% in value since 2020. The China central bank, Japanese central bank just dumped 30% of their

610
00:57:14,148 --> 00:57:21,188
holdings in the past four years. Like if you extrapolate those trends out, what are government

611
00:57:21,188 --> 00:57:28,988
bonds worth in 20 or 30 years from now? I struggle to see a world where they're worth three times

612
00:57:28,988 --> 00:57:33,988
what Bitcoin is worth. So you just look at the economic side of things and I could go on and on.

613
00:57:33,988 --> 00:57:39,888
If you look at government debt defaults, for example, there's been 52 governments who have

614
00:57:39,888 --> 00:57:47,928
reached debt to GDP levels of 130% since the 1800. Within 15 years of reaching that 130% Rubicon,

615
00:57:48,248 --> 00:57:53,868
that's like the end game. That is the measure. Once you get past 130, there's no going back.

616
00:57:54,928 --> 00:57:58,848
51 out of those 52 governments defaulted on their debt within 15 years.

617
00:57:58,848 --> 00:58:03,408
The only country who hasn't explicitly defaulted is the Japanese

618
00:58:03,408 --> 00:58:07,568
And the Japanese yen just lost 50% of its value against the dollar in the past five years

619
00:58:07,568 --> 00:58:09,368
I mean, that's a default, let's be honest

620
00:58:09,368 --> 00:58:14,488
So, America hit that Rubicon, 130% in 2020

621
00:58:14,488 --> 00:58:19,468
There's another 10 nations who hit that level in 2020

622
00:58:19,468 --> 00:58:22,748
We have a very globally interconnected financial system

623
00:58:22,748 --> 00:58:26,588
I believe if one country goes through a default, they all go through a default

624
00:58:26,588 --> 00:58:34,188
that's what a global fiat currency system is and i think if america goes through this default period

625
00:58:34,188 --> 00:58:42,788
before 2035 like i'm not saying the us dollar hyper inflates before 2035 i don't think it's

626
00:58:42,788 --> 00:58:49,348
a zero percent probability i think it's a chance but even if you just see high inflation five percent

627
00:58:49,348 --> 00:58:55,688
inflation three percent inflation like we have now for another 10 years people aren't looking at rates

628
00:58:55,688 --> 00:59:01,908
of changes they're not saying okay what happens if all central banks around the world keep buying

629
00:59:01,908 --> 00:59:06,968
gold and they keep selling government debt does it make sense for the government debt market to

630
00:59:06,968 --> 00:59:12,228
be 200 trillion dollars in 12 years from now like the power law and a lot of these assumptions

631
00:59:12,228 --> 00:59:19,788
pretends like is logical like this is my problem with these extrapolations the power law is

632
00:59:19,788 --> 00:59:25,648
pretending that the world is going to remain in a vacuum and what happened in the first 15 years

633
00:59:25,648 --> 00:59:30,528
Bitcoin's life continues in the next 15 years. Now, I don't know what's going to happen in the

634
00:59:30,528 --> 00:59:35,968
future, but I think there's enough data to suggest we're in the second stage of an 80 year long-term

635
00:59:35,968 --> 00:59:43,008
debt cycle. Governments in 2020 hit an inflection point, interest rates hit zero, their lowest level

636
00:59:43,008 --> 00:59:49,488
in 5,000 years of economic data. They're now printing money out of the wazoo and we're in

637
00:59:49,488 --> 00:59:58,148
in an environment where a government debt default is like 98.6% likely. So to just blindly assume

638
00:59:58,148 --> 01:00:05,368
that the debt market's going to be 300, 400 trillion dollars in 2040 and Bitcoin's just

639
01:00:05,368 --> 01:00:12,988
going to be still acting in a vacuum. I think that's a misguided assumption. And I have triggered

640
01:00:12,988 --> 01:00:17,948
so many debates on Twitter with all the power law guys, all of them. And again, I love them.

641
01:00:17,948 --> 01:00:20,128
So, and I, I don't insult anyone.

642
01:00:20,248 --> 01:00:24,968
So I'll name them, you know, Giovanni plan C, uh, Smitty.

643
01:00:25,108 --> 01:00:25,948
He's a friend of the channel.

644
01:00:26,168 --> 01:00:32,028
I love that they're doing work, but I've challenged all of them to like, come up with an explanation.

645
01:00:32,028 --> 01:00:36,188
Like, why do we assume that all of this data is irrelevant?

646
01:00:36,328 --> 01:00:38,548
Like the trends have clearly changed.

647
01:00:38,968 --> 01:00:43,348
Why do we assume that it's, it's going to remain the same for the next 15 years?

648
01:00:43,508 --> 01:00:45,088
Haven't got a good answer for it.

649
01:00:45,088 --> 01:00:49,128
I just get insulted and told that I need to go back to school because I don't understand math.

650
01:00:50,128 --> 01:00:56,848
So I think there's like, again, this long caveat to talk about how much Bitcoin you need to retire.

651
01:00:57,508 --> 01:01:02,408
But when you mentioned power law, I got triggered because there's another thing as well.

652
01:01:02,648 --> 01:01:04,028
There's technological assumptions.

653
01:01:05,028 --> 01:01:10,328
So if you look at how quickly the automobile took over the horses 100 years ago,

654
01:01:10,328 --> 01:01:16,748
happened in 10 years. Horses went from a hundred percent of road transportation to like 1% in 10

655
01:01:16,748 --> 01:01:23,048
years. The internet did something similar to email. Uh, the, uh, you know, physical mail dropped by

656
01:01:23,048 --> 01:01:28,308
50% in 10 years because of the internet. Uh, smartphones got adopted in 10 years. The internet

657
01:01:28,308 --> 01:01:33,308
got adopted in 20 years. Like what I'm trying to say here is technologies get adopted in exponential

658
01:01:33,308 --> 01:01:38,128
curves. Now I understand there's a little bit of a difference and a little bit of a nuance with

659
01:01:38,128 --> 01:01:43,848
Bitcoin because it's a monetary asset, but every monetary transition, it's been an exponential

660
01:01:43,848 --> 01:01:51,048
transition. Every technological transition, it's been an exponential transition. I don't,

661
01:01:51,608 --> 01:01:57,028
and again, like think about it, the smartphone went from zero to a hundred percent adoption or

662
01:01:57,028 --> 01:02:03,348
zero to 90% adoption in 20 years, the internet from like basically zero to a hundred percent

663
01:02:03,348 --> 01:02:09,608
adoption in basically 20 to 30 years. Are we really going to think Bitcoin's going to go from

664
01:02:09,608 --> 01:02:20,508
0% to 3% saturation in 32 years? I mean, Bitcoin is so much better than fiat money and government

665
01:02:20,508 --> 01:02:27,748
bonds and gold and all of this other trash. Just blindly saying, okay, let's extrapolate the past

666
01:02:27,748 --> 01:02:31,988
16 years forward, we got $4 million Bitcoin in 2040.

667
01:02:32,368 --> 01:02:37,468
I mean, that's 32 years after Bitcoin was invented and it would be 3% global

668
01:02:37,468 --> 01:02:38,288
saturation.

669
01:02:38,728 --> 01:02:46,468
So that's like my, to anybody who says you, you need 10 Bitcoin to retire, what I

670
01:02:46,518 --> 01:02:55,098
Notice it's just a trend. All of them think Bitcoin's just digital gold and all of those guys just blindly assume Bitcoin is just digital gold.

671
01:02:55,358 --> 01:03:04,138
It's just going to be worth a million dollars and every all of the caveats that I just laid out for why it could actually be different this time.

672
01:03:04,718 --> 01:03:07,138
I haven't got a good answer to any of those caveats.

673
01:03:08,038 --> 01:03:13,198
So that's again, this is why I think you need way less Bitcoin to retire than most people think.

674
01:03:13,198 --> 01:03:19,758
Again, we know wealth distribution follows a Pareto's principle. There's 21 million coins.

675
01:03:20,238 --> 01:03:26,998
Even if you wanted to divide the 21 million supply evenly into little chunks of 0.1 Bitcoin,

676
01:03:27,538 --> 01:03:35,078
there's only 210 million people who can hold 0.1. So that's 3% of global population. You buy 0.1

677
01:03:35,078 --> 01:03:41,158
Bitcoin, you're guaranteed to be in the top 2.5% of asset holders. And today in the fiat system,

678
01:03:41,158 --> 01:03:46,858
If you're in the top 1% or the top 2%, you're a millionaire and you can retire in most countries

679
01:03:46,858 --> 01:03:53,818
and most cities around the world. So like, I think 0.1 is a good starting point. Uh, now I don't even

680
01:03:53,818 --> 01:03:59,638
have to get stupid bullish or stupid crazy to make the case for why you can retire on way less

681
01:03:59,638 --> 01:04:06,658
than that. I just think like, if we're in a world where there's $3,000 trillion of wealth in 2040,

682
01:04:06,658 --> 01:04:10,518
Like I just think bitcoin's gonna be 50% of that

683
01:04:10,518 --> 01:04:14,118
And I don't think that's a crazy thing to say

684
01:04:14,118 --> 01:04:17,478
Like I'm not saying real estate goes to zero

685
01:04:17,478 --> 01:04:18,598
I'm not saying that

686
01:04:18,598 --> 01:04:22,538
I'm saying real estate probably loses a lot of its monetary premium

687
01:04:22,538 --> 01:04:26,278
And it kind of trends back towards its utility value

688
01:04:26,278 --> 01:04:30,298
Like I'm still saying there'll be 100 trillion in real estate

689
01:04:30,298 --> 01:04:32,598
Maybe 200 trillion

690
01:04:32,598 --> 01:04:45,911
I not saying fiat goes to zero I still think there be 50 or a hundred trillion dollars of Fiat money running around but I really really struggle even when I been ultra conservative to see a world where

691
01:04:45,911 --> 01:04:54,131
Bitcoin isn't half of global wealth or just 20% of global wealth by 2040. And if Bitcoin's,

692
01:04:54,231 --> 01:04:59,651
let's be conservative, a third of global wealth, so it penetrates the market for storing value

693
01:04:59,651 --> 01:05:06,031
33%. Well, that means it's a thousand trillion. That's a quadrillion dollars.

694
01:05:06,571 --> 01:05:15,011
If there's 21 million coins, that would mean that Bitcoin's 50 million. And that's just even

695
01:05:15,011 --> 01:05:22,051
captures 30% of global wealth. Again, I think that's wildly bearish. And I actually think

696
01:05:22,051 --> 01:05:29,111
global wealth could expand by more than that. But let's just use conservative wealth growth

697
01:05:29,111 --> 01:05:36,171
numbers and conservative numbers for what Bitcoin can capture. I really like just directionally,

698
01:05:36,231 --> 01:05:40,551
if you think about things from first principles, I think Bitcoin's going to be way closer to 50

699
01:05:40,551 --> 01:05:45,531
million a coin and that's ignoring hyperinflation. That's today's dollars. And I just think

700
01:05:45,531 --> 01:05:51,911
directionally that's much closer than just blindly believing a power law. So that's why I think

701
01:05:51,911 --> 01:05:58,491
0.1 Bitcoin could be really valuable. Cause if we're thinking Bitcoin could be 50 million a coin,

702
01:05:59,111 --> 01:06:01,851
All of a sudden, 0.1 Bitcoin is 5 million big ones.

703
01:06:02,051 --> 01:06:04,531
And I mean, you can retire anywhere with 5 million big ones.

704
01:06:04,931 --> 01:06:05,091
Yeah.

705
01:06:05,151 --> 01:06:09,971
And I think it's interesting when you look at the power law too, just how wide the bands

706
01:06:09,971 --> 01:06:10,571
are right now.

707
01:06:10,631 --> 01:06:15,391
I mean, it's like from 50K to like 400,000 right now or something crazy.

708
01:06:15,391 --> 01:06:19,911
So I mean, like it's hard to make any decisions, I think, based off of that.

709
01:06:20,071 --> 01:06:22,491
But I mean, and I agree with you too.

710
01:06:22,651 --> 01:06:27,411
I mean, I know you and I have gone ad nauseum talking a lot about this.

711
01:06:27,411 --> 01:06:38,964
But I think you know when you look at Bitcoin there just nothing that is truly scarce like Bitcoin that nobody has been able to manipulate Like I mean if you can make the argument of gold well there been paper gold that

712
01:06:38,964 --> 01:06:39,524
they've issued.

713
01:06:39,704 --> 01:06:43,984
There's, you know, real estate we've just essentially built up and there's so much land

714
01:06:43,984 --> 01:06:47,944
that we could buy extra or build extra houses if we actually wanted to.

715
01:06:48,004 --> 01:06:52,584
But we financialized real estate to make it to where it is today.

716
01:06:53,004 --> 01:06:57,584
And so, you know, as long as they don't do anything crazy, I guess, and try to issue

717
01:06:57,584 --> 01:07:02,304
credit or do anything else i think at the end of the day you know when you look at the actual numbers

718
01:07:03,024 --> 01:07:10,944
you know 14 million wallets have 1 million sats or 0.01 bitcoin or more right now and there's 62

719
01:07:10,944 --> 01:07:16,864
million millionaires in the world and you lined out the stats i mean you know physically you just

720
01:07:16,864 --> 01:07:22,864
you know not everybody could really have even just a million sats here so i think the scarcity

721
01:07:22,864 --> 01:07:29,045
aspect of Bitcoin, just humans haven't completely grasped. So I think once people start to figure

722
01:07:29,045 --> 01:07:34,424
that out, that's when things are going to go absolutely crazy. But Luke, you're always a pain

723
01:07:34,424 --> 01:07:39,124
to get a hold of, but you've been very generous with your time. So I appreciate you coming on here,

724
01:07:39,224 --> 01:07:44,404
brother. Why don't you tell people where they could find out more about you and listen to you

725
01:07:44,404 --> 01:07:50,844
talk into this microphone with your crazy haircut? People don't want that. If you want to find me

726
01:07:50,844 --> 01:07:55,504
talking shit. I'm on YouTube. Um, and that's where I spend all my time, but yeah, no, thanks for

727
01:07:55,504 --> 01:07:59,444
having me on again, Brandon, always a blast, uh, catching up with you, whether it's, uh,

728
01:07:59,744 --> 01:08:05,624
in person or remote. Uh, I would just like, I just challenge people just to think about things like

729
01:08:05,624 --> 01:08:12,924
from, from first principles, like don't blindly trust anyone. And I would just like encourage,

730
01:08:12,924 --> 01:08:19,004
like really think about things. Like I, I, again, I kind of got it out of Giovanni on Twitter the

731
01:08:19,004 --> 01:08:22,244
the other day, he openly said, I've screenshotted all the tweets.

732
01:08:22,664 --> 01:08:32,598
The power law is about multiplying your Bitcoins and using advanced trading algorithms like covered calls to trade your Bitcoin and make money

733
01:08:32,658 --> 01:08:39,598
Like all I've found is anybody blindly supporting these models and insulting anyone who just

734
01:08:39,598 --> 01:08:44,778
asks questions about the models and their assumptions, they just get attacked and insulted.

735
01:08:45,058 --> 01:08:47,858
So I would just like be very careful out there.

736
01:08:47,858 --> 01:08:54,698
Everybody says don't trust BlackRock with your Bitcoin or be careful JP Morgan wants your Bitcoin or be careful

737
01:08:54,698 --> 01:08:57,998
Don't buy altcoins because they want your Bitcoin

738
01:08:57,998 --> 01:09:05,098
I mean there's proof all over all over my Twitter all of the most I think the most dangerous people who want your Bitcoin

739
01:09:05,358 --> 01:09:10,118
Are people saying oh no, but trust my model bro. I'm a Bitcoin only person

740
01:09:10,118 --> 01:09:14,298
Oh by the way buy my trading course or trade your Bitcoin. I would just be very careful

741
01:09:15,098 --> 01:09:16,238
Everybody's

742
01:09:16,238 --> 01:09:19,358
encourage everybody wants your Bitcoins. I mean, uh,

743
01:09:19,358 --> 01:09:23,438
I think it's a message on my channel and your channel, Brandon, buy Bitcoin,

744
01:09:23,498 --> 01:09:27,278
put it in self custody, back it up correctly and safely,

745
01:09:27,538 --> 01:09:30,718
and don't trade your Bitcoin. Don't give anybody your Bitcoin.

746
01:09:30,718 --> 01:09:34,898
I think that's kind of like a final notion I'd like to leave things on.

747
01:09:34,898 --> 01:09:37,598
And you know, if that's controversial to say,

748
01:09:37,598 --> 01:09:42,098
and if people are going to attack me and say that I'm unscientific for not

749
01:09:42,098 --> 01:09:44,758
trusting a power law trader, you can do that.

750
01:09:44,758 --> 01:09:49,798
And I'm going to continue saying what I think is the truth, even if it gets me attacked on my YouTube channel.

751
01:09:49,958 --> 01:09:51,698
So there you go, Brandon.

752
01:09:51,758 --> 01:09:52,678
That's all I've got for you.

753
01:09:52,878 --> 01:09:53,198
All right.

754
01:09:53,218 --> 01:09:56,858
I'll be sure to leave a couple of hate comments on your next video as well, Luke.

755
01:09:56,938 --> 01:09:57,618
But thanks, brother.

756
01:09:57,698 --> 01:09:58,818
I always appreciate it, man.

757
01:09:58,838 --> 01:09:59,518
It's always a blast.

758
01:10:00,738 --> 01:10:01,298
Thanks, man.

759
01:10:01,538 --> 01:10:01,858
Adios.

760
01:10:01,858 --> 01:10:06,658
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.

761
01:10:06,818 --> 01:10:12,178
If you found some value in this one, please hit that subscribe button and that like button to help send this one to the masses.

762
01:10:12,398 --> 01:10:13,678
And I've got a surprise for you guys.

763
01:10:13,678 --> 01:10:17,038
I've got two more episodes that you have the chance to watch here.

764
01:10:17,178 --> 01:10:20,038
So go ahead and click one of them and I'll see you guys all at the next one.