Christine Lagarde has published multiple articles at the ECB openly saying like there is an urgent need to channel retail savings into EU capital markets.
Like that just screams they're going to freeze your savings.
A lot of this is spreading to America. The two stable coins that have been kind of given a monopoly over the creation of money in America have both been guilty of freezing people's savings.
I am getting notifications on my iPhone telling me that because I have an Australian YouTube
account, I'm going to be forced into a digital ID in four days time.
I like to walk through a thought experiment.
A $4 million Bitcoin by 2040 is a failure, right?
Now that's what the power law produced.
To anybody who says you need 10 Bitcoin to retire, all of them think Bitcoin's just digital
gold.
I think Bitcoin's going to be way closer to 50 million a coin, and that's ignoring hyper
inflation.
That's today's dollars.
All of a sudden, 0.1 Bitcoin is 5 million big ones.
And I mean, you can retire anywhere with 5 million big ones.
What's up, guys?
70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month, but 71% are not subscribed.
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So make sure that you're hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get
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All right, now let's get back into this great interview.
Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast. I normally say the man,
the myth, the legend, but we've got Luke here again, and I don't think he necessarily fits
that description now that he's back on the podcast. But Luke, you've been covering a lot
about the EU potentially freezing the savings accounts, and I think there's a lot of craziness
going on there. So why don't you dive in to everything that you're seeing in the EU right
now and why everybody should be keeping a close eye on the developments going on over there
yes the scary thing is it's not just in the eu a lot of the laws the regulations the ideas of a
savings cap being talked about in britain and the eu you're slowly starting to see a lot of these
similar narratives being rolled out in america so again this is like a worldwide thing right now
as we're recording here on December the 6th, I am getting notifications on my iPhone telling me
that because I have an Australian YouTube account, I'm going to be forced into a digital ID in four
days time. So what we're seeing is a global push. And what we're seeing is like a global attack when
it comes to not just your online communications, but how you spend and hold your money online.
So we've got the European Central Bank trying to roll out a CBDC.
And what's really interesting is Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, is openly praising China's model of a CBDC, saying it's been a success for all the people.
And that's just concerning. I mean, Christine Lagarde has published multiple articles at the ECB openly saying like there is an urgent need to channel retail savings into EU capital markets.
Like that just screams like they're going to freeze your savings if you really kind of read between the lines.
So the EU's been pushing for this central bank digital currency and now the EU is also pushing for something called chat control.
This essentially ends encryption all across the European nations. I made a video on this today, and there's 22 of the 26 European nations and countries have agreed to essentially outlaw encryption.
So that means any photo on your phone, any message you send your grandma or your grandpa,
or anything you say on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, it's all being surveilled and it's all going to be
used to build a social credit score. I know that sounds like a big and bold statement, but just
look at what the UK is doing right now. The UK has a bank called NatWest that's literally calculating
people's carbon credit footprints. So if somebody is eating too much steak, you can see all of their
transactions that they do each month has been tracked. It has a number next to it. It's a carbon
credit score. So I think we've got the EU pushing towards Orwellian rules when it comes to
communications and money. And the UK is doing the same thing. I mean, the Bank of England,
the kind of first thing that really raised the alarm bells for me when I started looking into
this rabbit hole was the UK's central bank white paper. They wrote in 2021 titled, uh, the execution
of a bailing. It wasn't like a theoretical framework. It's an actionable guide of how
they steal everybody's money in a banking crisis. So I think we've got the UK now talking about
mandatory digital IDs to work. They're talking about savings caps on digital pounds. That's the
same thing being used in the EU. They're talking about the need for two to 3000 euro savings caps
on their CBDC. And I just think a lot of this is spreading to America. The two stable coins that
have been kind of given a monopoly over the creation of money in America have both been
guilty of freezing people's savings. That's Tether and that's Circle. So I just, I'm really kind of
skeptical here that we've supposedly got America on the side of freedom. Trump's been talking about,
you know, outlawing CBDCs. So he might outlaw CBDCs, but if he welcomes Tether and Circle,
USDC into being the digital currency for America, if they have the power to freeze users funds,
like both Tether and Circle have done multiple times, what's the difference there? That is a
CBDC. That is essentially a central bank digital currency. It is the thing that everybody's scared
of. Everybody hears central bank digital currency and they're fearful naturally, but is there a big
difference between private bank digital currency and CBDC if both entities are essentially controlled
by one or two people at the top of the pyramid who kind of pull the strings and tell you who can
and who can't transact. I don't think there's a major difference. From first principles,
it's very basic. It's digital currency that can be frozen. And I think that's going to be rolled
out worldwide. Brandon, what do you think? Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of people haven't
really been talking about that the US and the UK just made a crypto task force, like a joint task
force to band together essentially. And they lined it out there that it was to help with
stopping the nefarious activities that could all happen. And so even though, you know, the narrative
in the United States is that Trump and, you know, we're very pro crypto and everything like that,
pro freedom. It is interesting when you look at the connections between Tether and the United
States government. I mean, Howard Lubnick and Cantor Fitzgerald, they were holding the funds
of Tether for a while. Tether is one of the largest holders of U.S. government bonds. And I
I think, you know, looking at the connections between these, you know, stable coins, I mean, I don't see where you're wrong in this case, because essentially it's just privatized banking.
And now they're getting more intertwined. I mean, we saw Bohinds leave from the government sector to the private sector and then all of a sudden become the CEO of USAT because the USDT wasn't USA compliant.
So I think, you know, when you're starting to connect a lot of these dots, it is very interesting to me. And, you know, obviously, Bitcoin could be a way around this. But do you see them using Bitcoin almost as this backdoor where they're essentially, you know, being more friendly, but then trying to sneak in these CBDCs, even though, you know, we have in the United States, for example, they're trying to roll out policies and saying that there will be no CBDCs.
CBDCs, do you think that this is essentially just the backdoor way to use stable coins to do this?
So I got a complicated answer to that question. Before I answer it, I will remind you,
Howard Lutnick, wasn't he neighbors with Jeffrey Epstein? I'm not sure whether that's true, but
I mean, a lot of people, I think you recently did a really good interview with Simon Dixon,
and he kind of lays out how the proof of weapons network is involved and, you know,
getting their tentacles into a lot of these Bitcoin companies. And I mean, I think Howard
Lutnick, Kenta Fitzgerald, they kind of partnered up, so to say, to create this Bitcoin company 21.
And I think that's just an interesting tidbit there. Howard Lutnick, neighbors of Jeffrey
Epstein, who knows, could you be a coinky dink? Maybe it's just neighbors or maybe he's going
with a island boy onto his island there and doing all sorts. But what I will say is to answer your
question. I've long thought that America would be one of the first nations to actually adopt Bitcoin.
So if you actually think about it from first principles, I know how controversial this will
sound. But I actually think America adopting Bitcoin actually helps America extend their
global reserve currency hegemon much longer than most people think. And the reason why is
kind of this involvement with stable coins. So in 2022, I wrote like a 10,000 word,
stupidly long essay titled the Bitcoin milkshake theory wrote that in 2022. Anyone can Google it.
I've seen a few people try to use that same narrative more recently this year, but I've
been looking at this for years. And if you think about it from first principles, why would America
have a debt problem? Well, they, a lot of people say they have a debt problem. What they really
have is a demand problem. They could have a hundred trillion dollars of debt. If there's a
hundred trillion dollars of demand for us debt the demand problem is what will get america into
into a hyperinflationary event the only reason you have hyperinflation it's not because governments
print too much money it's because they print too much money for the amount of demand there is
in the market so the problem with america is you have the largest holders of us treasuries
Japan and China now becoming the biggest sellers of US treasuries in 2024 and 2025.
So that is where America gets itself into trouble. Now, the reason how Bitcoin and stable coins fixes
this is I believe that in countries that adopt Bitcoin, they're also going to adopt stable coins.
So let's think about that for a minute. Which countries around the world have the highest
US dollar stable coin adoption. It's Pakistan, it's Argentina, it's Turkey. Now, what are some
interesting correlations that you see in those countries? They have a terribly weak local
currency. The Pakistan rupee, the Argentinian peso and the Turkish lira are all incredibly weak
currencies. And all these countries have super high Bitcoin adoption. So I don't know whether
it's a chicken or the egg. I don't know which comes first, but my thesis is that if a country
like turkey were to adopt bitcoin as a legal tender they would also have to adopt us dollars
to use as a medium of exchange and a unit of account while bitcoin is still too volatile
and i think that kind of thesis this is again a thesis i've had for multiple years this is playing
out the countries with the most bitcoin adoption have the most stable coin adoption and i just
think it's a natural thing to happen. Like once the Turkish lira has 200, 300, 500% inflation,
all of a sudden, Bitcoin's going to be adopted as a store of value.
But if Bitcoin's still moving by 200, 300, 400, 500% per year, it's going to be too volatile to use
as that pricing mechanism. So that's where us dollars and in particular us stable coins will
will be adopted as that unit of account or that medium of exchange.
And if the, all of these us dollar stable coins, if they are 100% backed by us treasuries
like tether and like circle are all of a sudden you've got China and Japan selling hundreds
of billions of dollars, the us treasuries, but now you've got stable coins like tether
and circle buying hundreds of billions of dollars of stable coins.
all of a sudden I, in 2022, I called the stable coins. I called them, um, uncle Sam's, uh, sugar
daddy. They are the way that uncle Sam America can de-leverage its debt. Uh, so I think this is,
this is kind of a natural process. I think the writing's kind of been on the wall since 2022,
when Tether was like 20% backed by safe US treasuries and 80% backed by other more risky
commercial paper, despite what the Tether truthers and the Doomburgs and the Doomers were saying about
Tether in 2022, they were clearly buying more US treasuries and they were clearly selling their
Chinese paper, which is why I wrote that this article in 2022. And I said, watch this space.
if Tether keeps buying US treasuries, eventually the American government will come to the realization
that protecting Tether and even partnering with Tether and these other stable coin companies
will be the economic wildcard that helps to extend the US dollars global reserve currency
much longer than most people think. And now look at where we are. Tether holds more treasuries than
my home country of Australia with 30 million people living there. So I think, I'm not sure
that answered your question, but, uh, I, I, I think from first principles, America is going to
be incentivized to adopt us dollar stable coins and Bitcoin because it helps them prolong that
global reserve currency. Uh, I think it's, it's less of like a backdoor confiscation thing.
Although I think it's like a kill two birds with one stone. I think America's like number one
plan if they're thinking rationally about this is to extend the dollar's reign i i like to think
that they're thinking about the 4d chess game that i just rambled about for five minutes um but i
think a a nice side benefit of that 4d chess game is you also get more control over people's money
by wrangling tether in and partnering up with the doj like tether has to freeze different accounts
and massive multi-million dollar transactions like they have previously,
it also kind of gives America the control that it wants over money.
Yeah, and I've always seen the way that the United States has moved with Bitcoin,
you know, like requiring KYC, trying to make it like more difficult
for these non-custodial Bitcoin lightning wallets to come in
as something of just, they don't hate Bitcoin necessarily,
they just want to know where you're moving it
so they could either tax you later
or potentially tell this company to stop and freeze said account But you know checkmatey probably the best Australian in Bitcoin maybe outside of Peter Dunworth I really can think
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Maybe outside of Peter Dunworth,
I really can't think of any other good Australians in Bitcoin
outside of those two guys.
He really opened my eyes to this,
where it's really just these poor countries
that are suffering through hyperinflation
that are essentially going to be propping up the dollar
because like you pointed out,
Argentina, Turkey, like they don't want their own currency. They want the best fiat currency out
there. And right now it is the dollar. So it makes sense. And then, you know, all these poor countries
are just going to keep using all of these stable coins like Tether. And then Tether is just going
to keep buying up that government debt. So I think over time, like you're nailing it on the head here
that, you know, these poor countries are essentially just going to allow the US dollar to reign
Supreme for a lot longer. And that's why the Trump administration really made a huge effort
to pass the Genius Act first and not go through the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve or that route either.
And to be quite honest, we haven't really seen much in the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve outside of
confiscating Bitcoin, which I think is another really interesting aspect. So how do you think
you know, that is all playing in together. Do you think like, you know, they're actually looking at
Bitcoin or they've just been looking at the dollar as a, or as the stable coins is a way to prop up
the dollar and Bitcoin is just, I guess, the marketing ploy behind it. So there's multiple
scenarios. I'm going to start with a scenario that I hope is true. So Donald Trump announced
strategic Bitcoin reserve 10 months ago in March. Sorry, that's nine months ago. They said within
30 days, uh, the U S treasury and all governments, uh, parties and facilities must give me the
president, a report to show us how much Bitcoin America holds within 30 days that was signed in
March. We still haven't got that report. So we don't know how much Bitcoin America holds.
Uh, we also were told we're going to get a strategic Bitcoin reserve. I think a lot of us
Bitcoiners just thought that that implied that America, we're going to go back, go out there
and buy a million coins and execute the bill that Cynthia Lummis keeps talking about the Bitcoin for
America act, or even the more crazy and the more bullish bill that RFK was talking about.
Um, I think it was like a 4 million Bitcoin buy, which would be crazy. Now that hasn't happened.
now i i think what i like to think and what i hope is happening uh again i'm not american uh but i
like to think i'm part american because i think uh america if i was allowed to live there i'd live
there i don't know if you guys would let me brand them but i would love to live there because i just
love i love what i love what the country stands for and i think if freedom remains alive in america
then the world has a chance to escape from like what Europe and Australia and Canada's talking
about. So what I hope is happening is America's buying a shitload of Bitcoin behind closed doors.
And what I really hope is happening is when Trump signed this strategic Bitcoin reserve,
the price of Bitcoin ripped from like 60K to 115K. And what I hope is happening is a few people
tapped Donald on the shoulder and said, dude, chill, look at the price of Bitcoin. It's running
away. We want to privately fill our bags before we let this thing rip. And then I don't think it's
a coincidence that, uh, in April, the next month, Trump starts talking about the tariff war and the
global markets were selling off Japanese yen carry trade was unwinding. We had that 20% correction in
stocks. Bitcoin had that from memory, it like had a prolonged chopping period. So I hope that
America's buying Bitcoin. That's what I hope is happening. I also, I just want to pause. I don't
want to get us in trouble. I like to think that they're buying Bitcoin behind closed doors.
And I like to think they understand Bitcoin. I think Trump's hinted at enough things to maybe
indicate that him and the Trump family at least knows what's happening. But then there's also the
other side of the argument. I don't have a strong opinion on this. So I'll just show you the two
sides. Then you have the flip side. Maybe Trump has no flipping idea what's going on. Maybe
Barron's manipulating the markets and, you know, leverage shorting Bitcoin 10 minutes before he
writes a tweet for Trump talking about a hundred percent tariffs on China on October 10th. Cause
Because we all know that some anonymous whale loaded up a hundred million dollars short
two minutes before Trump made a tweet on October 10th and it saw hundreds of millions of dollars.
No, it actually saw 19 billions of dollars wiped out and liquidated on October 10th.
And that was kind of like the day that started.
Honestly what kind of looks like if you're a degen trader, it looks like the Bitcoin
bear market.
be a topic for maybe later on. A lot of people are convinced we're in a four-year bear market
right now. But the market's been dumping ever since then. So there's a scenario that maybe the
Trumps are just launching shit coins, launching meme coins. What did Trump launch the day before
he got in office? Trump coin, millennia coin, his wife's launched a shit coin. Scott Besson got on
the national news and said, yeah, no, we're not going to revalue gold and buy Bitcoin,
but we're not we're we're gonna stop selling bitcoin and uh we might confiscate assets to
add to our strategic bitcoin reserve but we won't buy anymore who remembers that interview he gave
like two months ago and then he quickly jumped on twitter and he goes oh well actually maybe i slipped
up on fox news an hour ago uh whatever president trump said is what we're gonna do we're pro bitcoin
it's like oh that's sketchy um so i mean there's also an ulterior explanation and i don't know
what's true that maybe Trump had no idea. Maybe they're just going to confiscate all our assets.
Maybe Tether and Circle having the ability to confiscate assets is just the American version
of a controlled digital currency. And maybe they're just here to grift and pillage and
pander to the Bitcoin crowd to get our votes. Because again, we were promised a strategic
Bitcoin reserve in March. It is now December. There's no Bitcoin reserve. Besant accidentally
slipped up and said we've been selling a ton of Bitcoin. We don't have the report. We don't know
how much Bitcoin America holds. And, uh, we are partnering up with the UK to create a crypto
task force. And, uh, what else have we got happening in America right now that just screams
Orwell? Uh, we've got samurai wallet developers being imprisoned for writing code. What are we
doing here this is insane so there's two stories there i like to think i like to hope that america
is just playing 4d chess and they're buying bitcoin behind closed doors but there's also a
lot of evidence for those who want to paint the other narrative that hey maybe they have no idea
what they're talking about i don't know where do you lie on that debate or discussion or thought
experiment brandon yeah i mean i of course i want to hope that that america is going to do right but
i mean the one thing that they are doing right right now is they're not letting you in this
country. And I mean, I'm going to do all I can to keep it that way, brother, to make sure that
that's not going to happen. But all jokes aside, I mean, I do think this does worry me. The US-UK
partnership, I think, was something that nobody is really talking about. And I don't really see
too many people honestly covering that side of it. And obviously, both what we're talking about
with the UK right now, with the digital ID movement, all of these things, it's like,
why would you partner with the UK when, you know, the whole origination of America was going against
the United Kingdom and how they were just trying to control and tax like crazy. And so that's how
this whole entire country started. And now we're just going to be like, all right, let's get back
and join this crypto task force. And even though they did the Brexit, I mean, if you look at the
the similarities between the UK and the EU. I mean, the UK almost seems like it's worse than
the EU at this point with the surveillance and everything. And I mean, you see the massive
amounts of protests and everything like that. So that task force, I feel like just got swept under
the rug and you don't hear very much media coverage around it. And that's where it worries me,
like and keeps me up at night a little bit just about all that. Of course, you know, I've got the
hope that, you know, the United States is buying Bitcoin. And, you know, the great Australian that
I just had, Chuck Mady, he did say that, you know, there is a giant, you know, it has to be multiple
nation states, big players, central banks buying. So even though we had whales sell more Bitcoin than
we've ever seen in a bull market. We had some giant behemoth buying Bitcoin behind the scenes,
and it hasn't really come out. So, I mean, I've been speculating whether or not it's like Saudi
Arabia. I mean, we have Eric Trump going all over the place saying all of these countries are buying
Bitcoin. They just don't want to announce it. So, I mean, I feel like the Trumps know something,
and uh you know they're launching their own publicly traded bitcoin mining company and so
i would like to think that they're doing this and they you know at least the family knows what's
going on but at the end of the day like you know well have we gotten anything to believe that uh
you know these politicians are going to do right i mean at the end of the day you know i i don't
necessarily trust politicians even if you don't want to consider trump a politician you know he
kind of came in the first four years and said he was going to drain the swamp and do these things.
Of course, we had a great economy, but I think he's learned from his lessons. And I just I think
it's just such a new industry. Like I'm kind of taking the wait and see approach at this point.
So, you know, I think it is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. But you
said something about the bear market, Luke. I mean, you and I are always covering how much
Bitcoin's getting taken off exchanges, the buying pressures that we're seeing.
Something that I think that is interesting that I just saw was during this recent crash,
the number of wallets with 10 million sats or 0.1 Bitcoin actually decreased,
where the number of institutions with a thousand Bitcoin or more went parabolic during this dip.
So it seems like the big dogs are coming in and buying more Bitcoin.
But I'm curious, do you think that we're in a bear market now?
and that supply shock is still a little ways away?
I honestly don't know.
If I'm being completely honest with you,
I think normally I like to think
that I've been somewhat directionally correct
with where the Bitcoin price is going to be
in the next three months.
Now, I never talk about short-term price.
You never talk about short-term price
because I think neither of our channels
are about trading Bitcoin.
But I like to say, look, I have no idea.
And I say that publicly all the time, but privately, like directionally, like I, I like
to think that I've been somewhat like close to predicting or having a grasp on where we're
going next.
But right now, like the next three months, I'm more uncertain than I've ever been.
I could make a bear argument.
I can make a bull argument.
You could like, if you had to ask me, honestly, I'm probably like 70% thinking that we're
still in a bull market and 30% of me says, you know, maybe we're in a bear market.
It doesn't mean 75% correction, uh, you know, 12 months down like traditional bear markets.
But I think there's a 30% chance that we're going to be stuck under a hundred for the
next six months, maybe.
So I think my bear argument, the TA traders and the trading bros who are convinced we're
a bear market, they are right that when Bitcoin's gone below the 50 week moving average on the weekly
chart that has spelled a bear market. So we typically go down for 12 months and we correct
by 70% that happened in 2017 happened in 2021. And if you look at Bitcoin and if you think
Bitcoin is in a four year cycle, so if you think Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after a halving,
well, we just had a halving in 2024. If 126 K was the top, that means Bitcoin would have taught
18 months after the halving. And that's exactly what it's done in 2021 and 2017.
So like there is like data there to like suggests, you know, maybe Bitcoin could literally be in a
bear market as dirty as it is to say, you could even make an argument. The S and P 500 has gone
straight up only for at least the past six to nine months.
So maybe it's due for a 10% pullback or just the 20% pullback.
Like the chart looks ridiculous.
It's literally gone straight up.
We have nothing more than a 5% pullback for six months in a row.
So, I mean, Bitcoin's crashed from 126 to 80,
like 35% and the S and P 500 never moved down more than 3%.
3%. It's really traded within 5% of a new all time high during that correction. So then you can ask
yourself, okay, if stocks trade down 10%, 20%, just a normal pullback in a bull market, what the hell
does Bitcoin do? But just if it just dropped 35% while stocks did nothing, I think you can make a
bear argument. You could say AI's extenders. Uh, I mean, Michael Burry has been wrong about a lot
lot of things he called Bitcoin, uh, tulip mania this week.
Uh, so I think that kind of diminishes his credibility when he's shorting Tesla
and Palantir, but there is no denying it.
Like Tesla and Palantir, they are extended.
Uh even if you believe in the AI bubble like you can have pullbacks Uh so look I can make a bearish argument Uh but I you can also make a bullish argument on the flip side of things
You could say that, Hey, don't you think it's interesting that JP Morgan is recirculating a 45
day old report from MSCI? That's kind of irrelevant. Uh, on October 10th, literally minutes before we
have that massive flash crash don't you think it's strange that jp morgan is publicly attacking
micro strategy and funding micro strategy and then two days later they released their very own very
first bitcoin product which is a bitcoin uh 1.5x leverage note on top of blackrock's ibit and then
in the same week bank of america adopts bitcoin uh we've got charles schwab adopting bitcoin and
And then there was another massive bank that Vanguard came out and ended a two year attack
on Bitcoin and said, oh, well actually, yeah, we said Bitcoin should be a part of a portfolio
two years ago when the ETS were launched, but here's your Bitcoin ETF on the big silver
platter.
We were wrong.
Sorry.
That all came out in the same week days after JP Morgan was attacking Bitcoin.
So on the flip side of things, you can make a bullish argument and you can say, Hey, it's
It's kind of strange that Bitcoin traded above 100k for 200 days and then all of a sudden
you see this coordinated fudge, Morgan Stanley made $100 million short in Bitcoin and then
all of the banks flipped bullish on Bitcoin within the space of three days and we've got
Santa Claus rally coming, Q4 has historically been bullish for not only Bitcoin but also
the stock market. And then you've also got $2,000 Trump stimmy checks coming in mid-2026.
Midterm elections are coming in 2026. Trump wants to juice the markets heading into those
midterm elections. You've got Jerome Powell leaving the Federal Reserve in a couple of months.
And apparently we've got a bullish pro Bitcoin dude being installed into the Fed.
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the easiest way possible all right enough from me let's get back to the show those midterm elections
you've got jerome power leaving the federal reserve in a couple of months and apparently
we've got a bullish pro Bitcoin dude being installed into the fed. You've got QT ending
in December. That kind of implies QE is coming. Global central banks did more rate cuts last month
than they did in 2008. So you can also make an incredibly bullish argument that honestly,
like liquidity over the next three to six months looks as if it's going to increase.
So what's really interesting about all of that is, uh, I also think the four-year cycle,
the four-year liquidity cycle is actually kind of being extended. So I'm not an expert
on this. So again, caveat, but like the way the U S is issuing debt, rebuying debt and
issuing debt on the longer end of the yield curve that kind of like extends the liquidity
cycle a little bit as well. So you could also make an argument, and this is why I still
think there's 70% chance we're in a bull market still, despite all of the four-year cycle bros,
like Ben Cullen, million followers on YouTube. He's convinced we're in a bear market. You've got
Bob Lucas, the four-year cycle guru. He's pretty bearish these days. He sounds at least 90% bearish.
You've got Leia Hepburn. She's convinced we're in a bear market. You've got a lot of notable big
names convinced we're in a bear market. I still think there's a 70% chance we're in a bull market.
I mean, if you're just looking at charts, absolutely. And looks horrific and looks bearish,
but I actually like think the Bitcoin four year cycles, I think they a hundred percent don't
happen because of a power law. Uh, but, but I think they happen. I think they happen because
of a liquidity cycle. And I think it's a little bit liquidity cycle and a little bit halving,
But I think now that the halving is getting smaller and smaller, I think the liquidity cycle is making up a bigger and a bigger explanation of what drives Bitcoin.
And I think all of these indicators, even the PMI liquidity cycle, hasn't expanded yet.
You've got all these indicators suggesting the next six months is going to be really positive for liquidity.
And we know that Bitcoin is the most correlated thing to liquidity.
So I just talked for 20 minutes.
What do you think about the four-year cycle debate, Brandon?
What do you think?
Luke, I don't know if you farted or not over there, but it smells something.
It smells a little fishy over here, dude.
I think I'm smelling some price manipulation is what it's sounding like, brother.
Because, I mean, you lined everything out.
And, I mean, I did a full breakdown on, you know, the MSTR and JP Morgan,
Morgan Stanley coordinated attack.
And, I mean, I just don't believe in that many coincidences to believe that,
oh, you know, MSTR has been having potentially one of the worst years it's ever had while Bitcoin is running up.
And then, you know, all this FUD just comes out 45 days later.
And then JP Morgan releases a competing product to JPR to MSTR's preferred stock options and, you know, preferred notes and everything like that.
So, I mean, it just the coincidence is I don't believe in a man.
And so and when you get into this game and you now have, you know, Bitcoin starting to get financialized, this is what happens is, you know, when everybody starts to think, oh, you know, you're going to have the four year cycles.
It's going to be uptober and moonvember.
And I mean, I was I was privy to that.
I definitely thought that we would have a good Q4 and I thought everything was looking bullish towards the end of this year.
And I was just waiting because we were chopping for such a long time.
But, you know, once you start to get Wall Street come in and try to financialize Bitcoin like they're doing, this is where, you know, the big players now they have so much money to toss around.
They're the ones seemingly starting to control the market. Right.
I mean, the whales have been historically selling every single bull run like we're getting in.
You know, maybe 100K was that barrier for a lot of them to come in and they sold a lot.
uh you know we've never seen whales sell as much bitcoin as we have and that would crater the market
in different time and like previous bull cycles so i thought it was actually pretty bullish that
we were chopping for quite some time when we were looking at the on-chain data just of how much
selling was going on by these whales but now we had the big players coming in and i think now
they're getting a lot of control and buying power that it makes sense that they're going to start to
try to manipulate things. And, you know, it's not like JP Morgan has ever manipulated a market or
anything like that before, you know, it's not like they didn't get sued for, I think, what,
like a billion dollars or something crazy for manipulating the silver market or anything like
that. I mean, don't dig into any of that, you know, because, you know, you're not going to
like what you find. But, you know, watching all of this makes it very interesting. And do you think
that this is also partially a play to attack companies that are putting Bitcoin on the balance
sheet as well? Because, you know, last year when Trump got elected, there were 64. There's like
close to 210 right now at the time of this recording. So we've just seen a parabolic
increase with that. And it's a great idea in a bull market. But when you're starting to get it
off the ground in a bear market, it makes it a little bit more difficult. So do you think
maybe just maybe this was an attack on some of these other guys that said hey you know we're
gonna attack the big guy like micro strategy and michael saylor uh but uh just essentially to make
all the small guys watch out for for what's to come ahead yes i made a video maybe four months
ago i thought it was strange that the day before strategy was potentially up for inclusion into the
S and P 500 NASDAQ came out and they actually said, you know what, we're going to change the
way that we look at these Bitcoin treasury companies, essentially making it more difficult
for companies to get included into the NASDAQ. At the time I made a live stream on the day and I
said, this is interesting. This is even an attack on the treasury companies, or this is creating a
monopoly for strategy to be the one big dog in the indexes, because right now, despite all of the
FUD, strategy is the one of the only Bitcoin treasury companies inside the NASDAQ. So that
means what I think, well, I mean, it's not, I think it's basic economics. If strategy is one
of the only Bitcoin treasury companies in the NASDAQ, that means all of that capital, that
passive capital that flows into all of the stocks in the NASDAQ 100, but also anybody looking for a
treasury company play, all their money now goes to strategy. So it creates this monopoly-like effect.
It creates this concentration. And my hypothesis months ago when this happened was this could be
setting up America's strategic Bitcoin reserve. So we were just talking about, okay, it's been
nine months since Trump signed the EO, where is the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
Well, what if it is Michael Saylor?
What if strategy is the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
What if, you know, one day Michael gets a tap on his shoulder and he says, all
right, Michael, America can't go out there and buy a million Bitcoin on the open
market. We'd move the price too much.
Like he said earlier, there's only 2 million Bitcoin left on exchanges,
depending on how you measure it.
What if it's easy to just say, all right, Saylor, you're nationalized.
your company's nationalized the Bitcoin on your balance sheet, handed over to the Bitcoin
government for X price. I mean, that doesn't sound that crazy. I mean, it might have sounded crazy a
year ago, but I mean, the US government just set the precedent of nationalizing strategically
important companies. They've got a 10% stake in Intel. I believe they also, there was something
funny going on with a few of the rare earth companies as well in America. I don't remember
be the exact headline but then you've also got what two months ago the american government buying
40 billion dollars of argentinian pesos the worst fiat currency you could ever buy why are they
buying it they haven't given us the reason but that is all a strategic play argentina has a
stranglehold on a lot of the rare earth minerals that are mined on the american continent the whole
continent. So that is only a strategic play. So is it outrageous for them to one day say,
look, Michael, you've got a million Bitcoin on strategies balance sheet, which they will one day.
That's what? 5% of the supply? I don't think it's outlandish for that to get nationalized.
So I actually forgot the original question, but reign me back in there. Was there something I
didn't answer? I got distracted when I... No, you basically were lining out the potential of the
the coordinated attack and like bringing it in with wall street doing the funny games but you
did line out you know something interesting there uh and and i think it's all connected with the
argentinian play because you know a big tariff that the trump that the trump admin actually
didn't put on with china was the rare earth metals because of how much that china has for the the
exportation of all of these rare earth metals and the only one that they get any other rare earth
metals that are used in all of these various electronics from is Argentina. So it is connected
in somewhat. And these tariff plays have been essentially this monetary war between China and
the US. And so I think all of it has been interconnected in a sense. And it's really
interesting, you know, watching how I guess this political clash seemingly plays out. But,
But, you know, with this, right, I've kind of gotten the theory as well that China has some sort of incentive to attack Bitcoin now as well, because we've seen, you know, China launch the CBDC that we're talking about earlier.
And, you know, I'm not sure how much you're diving into the China side of things, but, you know, they had the second most, you know, they had the second most Bitcoin on the balance sheet for any nation behind the United States.
Then the United States confiscated another like 190 or something thousand Bitcoin to put them a little over 350,000 Bitcoin on the U.S. balance sheet.
Allegedly, right.
If they haven't been selling it, you know, it's hard to verify all these things.
But according to Bitcoin Treasuries dot net, I think it's a great site.
But they, you know, say the U.S. has about like 350 or so.
But the unique thing of this is this happened right after the UK and the US formed this crypto task force.
It was a Chinese citizen who was in the UK.
And then for some reason, this confiscation happened.
And then it went on the United States balance sheet.
So I have this theory that China was probably a little bit upset with that because they want that Bitcoin, right?
They wanted that other 150 to 180,000.
I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head.
But, you know, the Chinese government potentially has, you know, something to play with.
And then when you saw that giant sell off that we saw here recently, a lot of it is lined out to a whale that was in the Asian trading timeline.
So if you line out the, you know, just the time zones and everything.
So I think all of this is kind of creating this monetary war.
And I feel like a lot's going on behind the scenes that we're not really getting a lot of coverage about.
So do you think that there's an aspect there where China would potentially try to crash the Bitcoin price in order to use it as almost an indirect attack at the United States?
Oh, that's spicy.
I think so I I saw no I haven looked into whether the Bitcoin that America sees was the same Bitcoin that the UK seized because there there headlines circulating a couple of months ago that the UK sees 60 Bitcoin from that Chinese lady
who is inside the UK. So I don't know if those two seizures are related. I don't have the data on it,
but I do know that China was pissed, uh, about the 60,000 Bitcoin that was seized by the UK.
and they were like publicly like, hey, that's our Bitcoin. Give it back. So I think like there's
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Uh about the 60,000 bitcoin that was seized by the uk
And they were like publicly like hey, that's our bitcoin give it back. Uh, so I think like there's something there
I also think that
Uh china and america
I think like that's the power struggle right now. If you believe America has 190,000 Bitcoin
Well, China has the second most amount of bitcoins about 190,000 coins as well
So there is something there like they are clearly battling over who can hold the most Bitcoin
I
I honestly don't have a strong opinion on what's going on with China and Bitcoin and America and Bitcoin right now
I mean
I can make a strong argument and a strong conspiracy theory for
either way. Like if you look at the amount of gold that China has been mining and importing over the
past 20 years, it's, it's pretty much like public knowledge that China has 20,000 metric tons of
gold in the country. Uh, whereas they publicly say, Oh, we've only got 2000 tons. That's the
public holdings of the PBOC, the people's bank of China. So like, there's a theory there that
China's going heavy into gold and they're going to try to like attack Bitcoin. You know, they kick
the miners out of the country and they're going the gold way. But then you could, and you know,
it makes, like we talked about earlier, it makes sense for America to go the Bitcoin way,
helps the US dollar with stable coins buying US debt. But then on the flip side, like I've made
a ton of videos saying, don't you think it's strange that the kingdom of Bhutan and Laos
are both these tiny little countries that sit on the border of China and both their governments
to openly and publicly mine in Bitcoin. Like, is there some involvement there? Like these countries
are tiny. I, I'm sure China has some sway or control over these countries. Hong Kong is
controlled by China. They've got a Bitcoin spot ETF and, uh, publicly Beijing officials are okay
with Hong Kong becoming the global crypto hub. Like there's also an alternative answer here that
says, hey, is China playing 4D chess? And are they secretly still mining a lot of Bitcoin and
getting all their neighbors to mine it? I honestly don't know. I have no idea what's going on there.
But I think you can make an argument either way. Yeah, there's definitely something there. I think
that there is some sort of monetary, I guess, warfare back and forth. But I think at the end
of the day, China just wants to be recognized by the United States as like an equal and not
lesser as the like the US is the main power. And, you know, I've heard a lot of different
theories on all of this. And, you know, it's just an interesting thought experiment. And it seems
like Bitcoin's at the center. But, you know, you already mentioned it, you make a lot of videos
here and there, Luke, a video that you love to hit on is how much Bitcoin you need to retire.
So I think that this is, you know, an interesting topic. And, you know, it always gets the people
going here. But you recently have made a full on move down to Latin America. So because they won't
allow you here in the good, the great free country of the United States. But, you know,
why don't you dive into, you know, I guess how you're looking at this as what a young chap with
a 40 year old body that you've got going on here on utilizing Bitcoin as your retirement plan.
Yeah. I mean, I think, I think you honestly need a lot less Bitcoin to retire than, than
most people think I like, that's my first principles, uh, answer. And like a lot of people will hear
the number that I'm about to say, and they're going to think you're crazy. But I, I think
people only think the numbers that I talk about are crazy because they don't have the
context. They don't actually understand how to value Bitcoin. They don't understand
how to value a new money and a new technology. So like from first principles, I think a lot of
people just blindly believe the power law. I think they just blindly believe that Bitcoin is digital
gold. Maybe it's worth 20 trillion or 30 trillion one day, maybe it's worth a million dollars or even
two million dollars in their lifetime. And they think that Bitcoin succeeded and that's, it's like
end game because they see gold at 20 or 30 trillion. They think, okay, Bitcoin's better.
Bitcoin could be 30 trillion, 40 trillion. And I agree with most people. If Bitcoin is just going
to be worth a million bucks or $2 million a coin, then you can't retire on 0.1 Bitcoin.
Cause if Bitcoin's a million bucks, that's a hundred thousand dollars. You can't really retire
on that. You need a little bit more. So that's kind of like my first caveat. You need to value
Bitcoin correctly. And I've triggered a lot of people with this statement. And there's going to
be a lot of people who turn off the interview right now, if I haven't already. Um, by, but,
but I genuinely think a $4 million Bitcoin by 2040 is a failure. And people hear that and they're
like, what's $4 million. That's such a big number. That's a 40 X from here. And they just stopped
listening to me. They call me an idiot. They say, I don't understand math. And I like to walk through
a thought experiment. If Bitcoin's of $4 million by 2040, that would mean that Bitcoin has a market
cap of $84 trillion. Right? Now that's what the power law predicts. Now, if you start thinking
about things from first principles, $4 million, $84 trillion market cap. Today, there's $900
trillion of wealth and debt in the world. $900 trillion of money is looking for a place to be
stored. It's looking for a store of value. So if Bitcoin is 84 trillion, it's less than 9% of
global wealth after 32 years of being around. Now you obviously, I think you need a global wealth
is growing. It's growing by 5, 10% a year. It's growing a lot. Michael Saylor thinks that global
wealth is going to be 4,000 trillion by 2045. So that's a forex in global wealth. If you think
global wealth is going to be 3000 trillion. So three X's from here. Um, that assumes that
Bitcoin is going to be like 3% of global wealth in 2040. Now you really start thinking about things
and you're like, okay, $4 million Bitcoin sounds big, but in that world where Bitcoin's $4 million,
it's an $84 trillion market cap after 32 years, that assumes that you've still got $300 trillion
dollars of fiat money. That means fiat money is three times bigger than Bitcoin in 32 years.
That also assumes that global debt is like 400 trillion. That assumes that there's a
government bombs market of multiple hundreds of trillions of dollars. Like, do we really think
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Back to the show.
multiple hundreds of trillions of dollars. Like, do we really think that in 15 years from now,
government bombs as they are so horrifically, they are terrible investment. Do we really think
they're still going to be three times larger than the Bitcoin market cap? I mean, government bombs
just lost 50% of their value in the past five years. The TLT, the U S treasury bond, it's down
50% in value since 2020. The China central bank, Japanese central bank just dumped 30% of their
holdings in the past four years. Like if you extrapolate those trends out, what are government
bonds worth in 20 or 30 years from now? I struggle to see a world where they're worth three times
what Bitcoin is worth. So you just look at the economic side of things and I could go on and on.
If you look at government debt defaults, for example, there's been 52 governments who have
reached debt to GDP levels of 130% since the 1800. Within 15 years of reaching that 130% Rubicon,
that's like the end game. That is the measure. Once you get past 130, there's no going back.
51 out of those 52 governments defaulted on their debt within 15 years.
The only country who hasn't explicitly defaulted is the Japanese
And the Japanese yen just lost 50% of its value against the dollar in the past five years
I mean, that's a default, let's be honest
So, America hit that Rubicon, 130% in 2020
There's another 10 nations who hit that level in 2020
We have a very globally interconnected financial system
I believe if one country goes through a default, they all go through a default
that's what a global fiat currency system is and i think if america goes through this default period
before 2035 like i'm not saying the us dollar hyper inflates before 2035 i don't think it's
a zero percent probability i think it's a chance but even if you just see high inflation five percent
inflation three percent inflation like we have now for another 10 years people aren't looking at rates
of changes they're not saying okay what happens if all central banks around the world keep buying
gold and they keep selling government debt does it make sense for the government debt market to
be 200 trillion dollars in 12 years from now like the power law and a lot of these assumptions
pretends like is logical like this is my problem with these extrapolations the power law is
pretending that the world is going to remain in a vacuum and what happened in the first 15 years
Bitcoin's life continues in the next 15 years. Now, I don't know what's going to happen in the
future, but I think there's enough data to suggest we're in the second stage of an 80 year long-term
debt cycle. Governments in 2020 hit an inflection point, interest rates hit zero, their lowest level
in 5,000 years of economic data. They're now printing money out of the wazoo and we're in
in an environment where a government debt default is like 98.6% likely. So to just blindly assume
that the debt market's going to be 300, 400 trillion dollars in 2040 and Bitcoin's just
going to be still acting in a vacuum. I think that's a misguided assumption. And I have triggered
so many debates on Twitter with all the power law guys, all of them. And again, I love them.
So, and I, I don't insult anyone.
So I'll name them, you know, Giovanni plan C, uh, Smitty.
He's a friend of the channel.
I love that they're doing work, but I've challenged all of them to like, come up with an explanation.
Like, why do we assume that all of this data is irrelevant?
Like the trends have clearly changed.
Why do we assume that it's, it's going to remain the same for the next 15 years?
Haven't got a good answer for it.
I just get insulted and told that I need to go back to school because I don't understand math.
So I think there's like, again, this long caveat to talk about how much Bitcoin you need to retire.
But when you mentioned power law, I got triggered because there's another thing as well.
There's technological assumptions.
So if you look at how quickly the automobile took over the horses 100 years ago,
happened in 10 years. Horses went from a hundred percent of road transportation to like 1% in 10
years. The internet did something similar to email. Uh, the, uh, you know, physical mail dropped by
50% in 10 years because of the internet. Uh, smartphones got adopted in 10 years. The internet
got adopted in 20 years. Like what I'm trying to say here is technologies get adopted in exponential
curves. Now I understand there's a little bit of a difference and a little bit of a nuance with
Bitcoin because it's a monetary asset, but every monetary transition, it's been an exponential
transition. Every technological transition, it's been an exponential transition. I don't,
and again, like think about it, the smartphone went from zero to a hundred percent adoption or
zero to 90% adoption in 20 years, the internet from like basically zero to a hundred percent
adoption in basically 20 to 30 years. Are we really going to think Bitcoin's going to go from
0% to 3% saturation in 32 years? I mean, Bitcoin is so much better than fiat money and government
bonds and gold and all of this other trash. Just blindly saying, okay, let's extrapolate the past
16 years forward, we got $4 million Bitcoin in 2040.
I mean, that's 32 years after Bitcoin was invented and it would be 3% global
saturation.
So that's like my, to anybody who says you, you need 10 Bitcoin to retire, what I
Notice it's just a trend. All of them think Bitcoin's just digital gold and all of those guys just blindly assume Bitcoin is just digital gold.
It's just going to be worth a million dollars and every all of the caveats that I just laid out for why it could actually be different this time.
I haven't got a good answer to any of those caveats.
So that's again, this is why I think you need way less Bitcoin to retire than most people think.
Again, we know wealth distribution follows a Pareto's principle. There's 21 million coins.
Even if you wanted to divide the 21 million supply evenly into little chunks of 0.1 Bitcoin,
there's only 210 million people who can hold 0.1. So that's 3% of global population. You buy 0.1
Bitcoin, you're guaranteed to be in the top 2.5% of asset holders. And today in the fiat system,
If you're in the top 1% or the top 2%, you're a millionaire and you can retire in most countries
and most cities around the world. So like, I think 0.1 is a good starting point. Uh, now I don't even
have to get stupid bullish or stupid crazy to make the case for why you can retire on way less
than that. I just think like, if we're in a world where there's $3,000 trillion of wealth in 2040,
Like I just think bitcoin's gonna be 50% of that
And I don't think that's a crazy thing to say
Like I'm not saying real estate goes to zero
I'm not saying that
I'm saying real estate probably loses a lot of its monetary premium
And it kind of trends back towards its utility value
Like I'm still saying there'll be 100 trillion in real estate
Maybe 200 trillion
I not saying fiat goes to zero I still think there be 50 or a hundred trillion dollars of Fiat money running around but I really really struggle even when I been ultra conservative to see a world where
Bitcoin isn't half of global wealth or just 20% of global wealth by 2040. And if Bitcoin's,
let's be conservative, a third of global wealth, so it penetrates the market for storing value
33%. Well, that means it's a thousand trillion. That's a quadrillion dollars.
If there's 21 million coins, that would mean that Bitcoin's 50 million. And that's just even
captures 30% of global wealth. Again, I think that's wildly bearish. And I actually think
global wealth could expand by more than that. But let's just use conservative wealth growth
numbers and conservative numbers for what Bitcoin can capture. I really like just directionally,
if you think about things from first principles, I think Bitcoin's going to be way closer to 50
million a coin and that's ignoring hyperinflation. That's today's dollars. And I just think
directionally that's much closer than just blindly believing a power law. So that's why I think
0.1 Bitcoin could be really valuable. Cause if we're thinking Bitcoin could be 50 million a coin,
All of a sudden, 0.1 Bitcoin is 5 million big ones.
And I mean, you can retire anywhere with 5 million big ones.
Yeah.
And I think it's interesting when you look at the power law too, just how wide the bands
are right now.
I mean, it's like from 50K to like 400,000 right now or something crazy.
So I mean, like it's hard to make any decisions, I think, based off of that.
But I mean, and I agree with you too.
I mean, I know you and I have gone ad nauseum talking a lot about this.
But I think you know when you look at Bitcoin there just nothing that is truly scarce like Bitcoin that nobody has been able to manipulate Like I mean if you can make the argument of gold well there been paper gold that
they've issued.
There's, you know, real estate we've just essentially built up and there's so much land
that we could buy extra or build extra houses if we actually wanted to.
But we financialized real estate to make it to where it is today.
And so, you know, as long as they don't do anything crazy, I guess, and try to issue
credit or do anything else i think at the end of the day you know when you look at the actual numbers
you know 14 million wallets have 1 million sats or 0.01 bitcoin or more right now and there's 62
million millionaires in the world and you lined out the stats i mean you know physically you just
you know not everybody could really have even just a million sats here so i think the scarcity
aspect of Bitcoin, just humans haven't completely grasped. So I think once people start to figure
that out, that's when things are going to go absolutely crazy. But Luke, you're always a pain
to get a hold of, but you've been very generous with your time. So I appreciate you coming on here,
brother. Why don't you tell people where they could find out more about you and listen to you
talk into this microphone with your crazy haircut? People don't want that. If you want to find me
talking shit. I'm on YouTube. Um, and that's where I spend all my time, but yeah, no, thanks for
having me on again, Brandon, always a blast, uh, catching up with you, whether it's, uh,
in person or remote. Uh, I would just like, I just challenge people just to think about things like
from, from first principles, like don't blindly trust anyone. And I would just like encourage,
like really think about things. Like I, I, again, I kind of got it out of Giovanni on Twitter the
the other day, he openly said, I've screenshotted all the tweets.
The power law is about multiplying your Bitcoins and using advanced trading algorithms like covered calls to trade your Bitcoin and make money
Like all I've found is anybody blindly supporting these models and insulting anyone who just
asks questions about the models and their assumptions, they just get attacked and insulted.
So I would just like be very careful out there.
Everybody says don't trust BlackRock with your Bitcoin or be careful JP Morgan wants your Bitcoin or be careful
Don't buy altcoins because they want your Bitcoin
I mean there's proof all over all over my Twitter all of the most I think the most dangerous people who want your Bitcoin
Are people saying oh no, but trust my model bro. I'm a Bitcoin only person
Oh by the way buy my trading course or trade your Bitcoin. I would just be very careful
Everybody's
encourage everybody wants your Bitcoins. I mean, uh,
I think it's a message on my channel and your channel, Brandon, buy Bitcoin,
put it in self custody, back it up correctly and safely,
and don't trade your Bitcoin. Don't give anybody your Bitcoin.
I think that's kind of like a final notion I'd like to leave things on.
And you know, if that's controversial to say,
and if people are going to attack me and say that I'm unscientific for not
trusting a power law trader, you can do that.
And I'm going to continue saying what I think is the truth, even if it gets me attacked on my YouTube channel.
So there you go, Brandon.
That's all I've got for you.
All right.
I'll be sure to leave a couple of hate comments on your next video as well, Luke.
But thanks, brother.
I always appreciate it, man.
It's always a blast.
Thanks, man.
Adios.
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.
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