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You're selling directly to BlackRock. You're selling directly to Michael Saylor.

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And realistically, if you look at the billions of dollars being absorbed currently in the Bitcoin market,

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this is by pressure and accumulation support that we've never seen before.

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If you look at an asset like Bitcoin, in 10 years to see a 10x as a genuine realistic probability

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is still the best asymmetric opportunity.

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And in spite of all of this selling that we've seen, and we'll jump in some charts and data to outline this a little bit better in a second,

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to the fact that we're only down kind of 15% to 20%.

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And even if short-term things could be choppy

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and potentially even further to the downside,

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I think Bitcoin still has the potential,

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even though the institutions are here,

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even though we're seeing long-term holders selling,

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Bitcoin has still, on five separate occasions,

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defied expectations and done the extraordinary

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in a very short space of time.

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But if we do just see a small rotation from gold,

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which, again, almost entirely institutionally-driven price action,

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if we see a very small rotation of that

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into the Bitcoin price action and we had to continue following this gold chart with about a

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10 week to three months offset, then we could have a very explosive end to the year for Bitcoin.

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What's up guys? 70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month, but 71% are not subscribed.

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So you're going to miss out on some of the great green candle content. So make sure that you're

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hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get notified every time

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I drop a video. All right, now let's get back into this great interview.

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Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man,

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the myth, the legend, recurring guest, Matt Crosby of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. But Matt,

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I had to have you back on because it's over, man. We're sitting at what, like just over $100,000.

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We've crashed 20%. The whole world is burning and the Bitcoin bull run is over. So just pack it up,

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right? I mean, it's the million dollar question. Have we peaked? Is the four year cycle over? Are

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we lengthening? And I'd love to say I have a crystal ball and know for certain what's going

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to happen next. But all we can do is look at the data, work on probabilities and try and gain some

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insights into where the coming weeks and months may be going. So hopefully we can shed some light

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on that today and kind of clarify and simplify things. Because obviously everyone on social

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media is blasting that it's the end of the world. Bitcoin's over, big bear market is incoming. But

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if you just take a step back, zoom out, it can really clarify where we are. And I don't think

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it's quite all as doom and gloom as it really seems. Okay, then dive into it, man. Why isn't

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it as doom and gloom as everyone sees? And why have we seen this recent pullback when we've seen

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essentially a lot of these treasury companies keep coming online? The United States isn't buying yet,

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but Eric Trump is saying that all these countries are starting to buy and secretly mine. And

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And, you know, we've had the U.S. confiscate more Bitcoin, although they haven't bought more.

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But it seems like the big money is here and buying.

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So who's selling right now and why have we seen this recent drawback?

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Yeah, 100 percent.

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It's one of these instances where I think Bitcoin might have crossed the threshold where it's almost suffering from success.

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I mean, all markets are supply and demand economics.

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It's simply who's buying and who's selling.

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and Bitcoin has now reached a point where it is liquid enough. We have these institutional buyers,

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we have these treasury companies pouring billions and billions of dollars into the market,

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which is now allowing an avenue for these holders that have been holding Bitcoin from

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a few hundred dollars for over a decade and have potentially millions or even billions of dollars

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worth of Bitcoin. They now have that exit liquidity, whereas previously in any of the prior cycles,

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if they were to try and dump 100 Bitcoin, 1,000 Bitcoin, 10,000 Bitcoin, they'd have a very notable

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impact on the underlying price of Bitcoin. They'd have a huge slippage. And really, the costs incurred

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in trying to cash out at that point made it maybe not so worthwhile. Whereas now, you're selling

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directly to BlackRock. You're selling directly to Michael Saylor. And in spite of all of this

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selling that we've seen, and we'll jump in some charts and data to outline this a little bit

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better in a second, in spite of all of this, the fact that we're only down kind of 15 to 20 percent

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actually underlines the current strength that we're seeing in the market. I know it all feels

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terrible. And it's all good to say, oh, yeah, it's actually a good thing that we're only down 20%.

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But realistically, if you look at the billions of dollars being absorbed currently in the Bitcoin

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market, this is by pressure and accumulation support that we've never seen before. And even

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if short term things could be choppy and potentially even further to the downside,

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I think medium to long term, this distribution from huge OG whales to new market participants

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who are a lot more decentralized, diversified, is actually much healthier for Bitcoin.

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Yeah, I actually heard Jordy Visser come in and talk about this, and I'm not sure if you're familiar with him. He's not exactly a Bitcoin maxi by any means, but what he says is this is kind of Bitcoin's quote unquote IPO moment where we have a lot of these Bitcoin whales come in and they accumulated a lot of Bitcoin, but they had to deal with a lot of the risk, right?

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So at that time, they were going in, you know, going all in on Bitcoin at a very early time when Bitcoin was a dollar, maybe even less, maybe $100, $1,000, what have you.

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They've seen the massive amounts of return.

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They've had to ride those waves.

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And so now they want to kind of sift off into the sunset, whether that's diversification, just make sure that their portfolios are OK, or just hold it in cash and kind of just ride out.

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I think Bitcoiners have this kind of romanticizing idea or romanticize the idea that all these OG whales want to be in it and they want to be in it forever.

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And I think at the end of the day, when you wake up 10 years later and you have billions of dollars in your account, I think everybody's like, oh, you know what?

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I could take off a billion here or there or a couple million here or there just to live a better lifestyle.

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So I think that's what I'm seeing and what we're kind of observing here is like this IPO moment where the big money players who have the big money who can afford to come in late are starting to do that a little bit now.

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Granted, I still think we are very early, but I do think it's an interesting little dichotomy that we've got going on with the OGs starting to sell.

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So with that, right, where do you think we're going now that we're seeing all this buying pressure?

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Because you said you're encouraged that we're only seeing a 20 percent drawdown.

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So I'm curious where you think we're going the rest of this year, because we didn't have the uptober that we normally have.

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We haven't hit Moonvember, dude.

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So is this just a delayed cycle or, you know, is this end of the year not going to be as bullish just because we've had that group thing?

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Of course. And there's a lot of elements to that.

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The Jordy Visser article on Bitcoin's IPO moment is great.

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So anyone that hasn't read it, I definitely recommend doing that.

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The seasonality of Bitcoin, I know everyone looks to Q4 as being this hugely positive and bullish era of Bitcoin.

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And historically, that has been the case.

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But again, we've kind of transitioned into this retail speculative asset, which maybe was more primarily driven by the Bitcoin halving event.

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Of course, the inflation rate decreasing by 50 percent had a huge impact on just the inflows of new Bitcoin into the market.

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Whereas now we've transitioned from this peer-to-peer currency with huge retail participation into this institutional asset where big funds are more likely to allocate a small percentage of their portfolios rather than saying, I want to get to 1 Bitcoin, I want to get to 10 Bitcoin.

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It's a much more gradual, granular and linear kind of progression of accumulation and distribution rather than the huge cyclical waves we get in volatility for Bitcoin.

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So where are we going? As I said, I don't have a crystal ball and it's easy to work in probabilities and look at the data to try and get some insights.

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But if we can just share some charts that I've got here, I think a lot of people, especially right now, are maybe a little bit nervous on where we may be going.

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Just looking at the time elapsed from the start of the cycle. So what we can see in this chart is the Bitcoin growth since cycle lows.

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Now, what we can see the previous two cycles, we've actually now surpassed the time of those two cycles since the bear market lows.

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So many people looking towards the traditional four-year cycle thesis of Bitcoin are seeing this and thinking, maybe we've topped.

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And I'm sure that is kind of playing some part in the selling as well.

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People see that we're about the same length as the previous cycles.

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And again, maybe start taking a little bit of profit.

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But ultimately, right now, even though things feel like it's all doom and gloom, really things are pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things.

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If we just zoom out and look at the volatility of Bitcoin.

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And again, this has been part of the evolution of the institutional influence in the market.

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We're very much seeing the big directional moves in Bitcoin becoming lessened and lessened.

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But really what we can see right now, even after this big flush out, we're still at the lowest levels of six month volatility we've ever seen for Bitcoin.

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So I still think even now we're on the cusp of a larger directional move.

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And of course, I'd like to think that's to the upside.

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But we have to acknowledge that, of course, it could be to the downside as well.

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We could have already topped.

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But for me, just looking at the data, I think the base case is definitely still to the upside.

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But the number one reason that we have seen this recent kind of lull in price section is, as I said before, the supply and demand economics of Bitcoin.

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If we look at the amount of whales that have been taking profit on Bitcoin, this is a monumental amount of selling.

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So it's one of those where, of course, we try and find the positive in everything.

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But if we look to the previous instances of where there was this much Bitcoin selling from these OG whales, it almost almost coincided with a Bitcoin bull cycle peak.

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Now in this cycle we've been sustaining this level of sell-side pressure for over a year since November 2024

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when the price was around $75,000-$80,000 and since then we moved over 50% higher than that ish to $124,000.

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So this strength that we're seeing in Bitcoin is really unparalleled unlike anything we've seen previously.

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And this chart here is rather than just looking at the individual whale shadows of the 7-9 year,

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if we aggregate all of them, we can see that right now Bitcoin is absorbing about 4,000 Bitcoin per

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day in sell side pressure, practically higher than at any point during the previous bull cycle

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and much higher than most of the 2017 bull cycle. And it's been like this for multiple,

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multiple months. So do we have any indication that these whales are going to stop selling? Well,

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if we look at the number of whales actually taking profit, we can see it's not at exceptionally high

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levels. Usually at bull cycle peaks, we see not only a huge amount of whale shadows transacting,

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but we see a huge amount of individual unique whales selling on the market. Right now we're

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seeing a lot of transactions from bigger market players, but this has kind of been gradualized

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over a longer period of time rather than a huge blow off top and a huge sell side event. And of

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course, if we look at the addresses holding 10,000 Bitcoin, as I said previously, this is actually a

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good thing for Bitcoin in the medium to long term. As we're getting rid of a small select few Bitcoin

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owners holding tens of thousands of Bitcoin, now it's not just a couple individuals that have the

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power to really move the market. If you're looking at 10 individuals with 10,000 Bitcoin selling at

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once, that has a huge impact on the supply and demand economics. Whereas now we're seeing, rather

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than a few individuals, we're seeing institutions, treasury companies, looking at the 100 BTC wallets

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absolutely skyrocketing recently. Again, this just distributes the coins throughout many,

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many more participants. So I actually think this is good for Bitcoin. And ultimately,

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where does this lead us over the coming days and weeks? Well, there's a few different parts to that

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question. If we look at the ETF flows, this is a good source of Bitcoin inflows and outflows,

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capital flows into the market. We can see that everyone associates the ETF buyers as the smart

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money, these big institutional deep wallet players. But historically, they've actually been pretty

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terrible at timing the market. Again, looking at something like the funding rates or the fear and

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greed index, it doesn't matter how much capital you have at your disposal, you're still susceptible

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to the same market emotions and behavior as everyone else. And we can see anytime the 28-day

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average ETF flows has become outflows, this has actually coincided with a Bitcoin local bottom

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at pretty much every point since the ETFs launched in January 2024. And we're now closing in on that

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part. So I do think right now is a decent point to be potentially accumulating more BTC. I think

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the risk reward right here is fairly strong. But like I said, we need to potentially acknowledge

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that the market could have already peaked and we could be now seeing some further downsides.

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So I think if we break beneath that 50 to 350 weeks, sorry, moving average to that 365 day

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moving average, that one year moving average, somewhere around $100,000. I think if we break

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beneath that, then things obviously don't look great. I'd personally be looking to the electrical

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production cost of Bitcoin, which is somewhere around $70,000 to mine one Bitcoin. But that cost

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is rising every single day. I think one of the positives of seeing lessened volatility is even

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though we don't see as massive exponential moves to the upside, I do think the drawdown percentage

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we'd see in the next bear market is much, much lesser as well. But like I said, I'm bullish. I'm

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looking at many different aspects. I'm not just looking at on-chain data. I'm looking at macro

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economic policies. We could be at the end of quantitative tightening and potentially at the

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start of federal balance sheet expansion once again. And this would be the fourth instance

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we've seen throughout the history of Bitcoin and all the three previous instances kickstarted an

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exponential rally in the Bitcoin price action. Now, obviously, we're later in this cycle,

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so I don't necessarily think we'd see the big 10x gains like we historically have done.

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But if we look to something like the short term holder MVRV, so this is the average accumulation

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price of all new market participants, we can see that there's very typical points where once we've

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exceeded this cost basis for new entrants once they've been a certain amount of unrealized gains

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in the market. Bitcoin usually has a little bit of a mean reversion. So this is usually about 1.33,

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so when they're at a 33% gain, 1.45, about a 45%, and about 6.6, so again about a 66% gain. So

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we can almost turn this short-term hold of realized price into some price target bands.

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And if we can extrapolate their current trend going forward, then if we are to see a more positive

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end 2025, then this would put us somewhere in the $160,000 to $200,000 region. Now, of course,

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these levels are changing every single day. But again, I think that's a fairly optimistic yet

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reasonable expectation of where Bitcoin can go this cycle. And I know a lot of people are going

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to say, but that's not happened. We've not seen these big parabolic moves this cycle. We've just

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had these choppy consolidationary periods. But really, we've already experienced five separate

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instances, this cycle already a very rapid price ascension in the Bitcoin price. And these are

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rapid price ascensions of at least 65% within 100 days. So Bitcoin still has the potential,

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even though the institutions are here, even though we're seeing long-term holders selling,

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Bitcoin has still on five separate occasions defied expectations and done the extraordinary

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in a very short space of time. And we just looked at the final chart that I've got here,

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which is gold's price section, overlay to the Bitcoin price section.

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Expectations and done the extraordinary in a very short space of time And we just looked at the final chart that I got here which is gold price section overlaid to the Bitcoin price section Now again this might be wishful thinking to some extent

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but if we do just see a small rotation from gold,

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which again, almost entirely institutionally driven price action,

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if we see a very small rotation of that

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into the Bitcoin price action,

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and we had to continue following this gold chart

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with about a 10 week to three months offset,

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then we could have a very explosive end to the year for Bitcoin with, again, just a small amount

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of this $10 trillion market cap increase that we've seen in gold over the past year or so

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flowing into Bitcoin, which is just a $2 trillion asset. Then we could be, again, on the cusp of

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some very exponential price action in the hopefully not too distant future. Now, with that, I have a

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little, yeah, I mean, I guess maybe some questions for you because, you know, you're charting a lot

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of this, and I think we kind of went over this last time you came on the pod, but you're charting

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a lot of this and kind of describing it as traditional assets. And the unique thing about

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Bitcoin is that digital scarcity. So, you know, there's 2.14 million Bitcoin still left on

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exchanges as of right now. And based on 2025 on chain data, there's 120,000 Bitcoin on known OTC

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desk or over the counter, which are the big players where they're buying from. So these big

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OTC desk are probably going to have to either go to the miners or have to go to some of these

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exchanges here pretty soon because of the amount of buying that we're seeing from these treasury

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companies. Now, I got to ask you, is there that parabolic potential supply shock going to happen

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maybe if buying keeps up or is just about the same in the next few quarters? Do you see that

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as a potential here? Or do you think that that is farther down the line just because of these whales

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selling and potentially moving the weak hands or the Bitcoin from the weak hands to the strong hands?

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I think the potential supply shock that everyone likes to look towards is probably a little bit

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further away than we'd maybe like to really admit. I think Bitcoin right now, unfortunately,

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is still very much a high beta, higher volatility play on US equities. And recently, we have seen a

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divergence with Bitcoin underperforming. But I think unless we see some continued favorable

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macroeconomic conditions, unless we see some more rallies in traditional markets and equities,

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then Bitcoin maybe isn't going to outperform to the extent that we'd maybe like it to. Now,

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I'm actually bullish on equities going into the last quarter and potentially Q1 of 2026. So I do

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think that we potentially have a lengthening Bitcoin cycle. But I think the arguments of

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Bitcoin supply shock due to Bitcoin left on exchanges, Bitcoin left on RTC desks, maybe isn't

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quite as important as the underlying buying and selling that we're seeing from long-term holders.

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If you can just share the chart that I've got up here, what we can see is the cumulative effect of

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the long-term holder selling. So if we just look at the previous two cycles, this is all of the

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Bitcoin that has been sold from long-term holders. So we can see in 2017, it was somewhere around

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five and a half million Bitcoin cumulatively sold in 2017, about 5.7. And in this cycle already,

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we've seen about 8 million Bitcoin being sold from long-term holders, which again,

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is a monumental amount of BTC. But really, I think as Bitcoin's narrative has shifted into

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this store of value asset, as opposed to a peer-to-peer currency, we're seeing the habits

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of holders again begin to shift as well. So there are actually more and more Bitcoin being held by

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long-term holders. So instead of looking at the raw values, we look at the percentage of circulating

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supply held by long-term holders. We're actually right in this region of selling where we'd

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anticipate Bitcoin to maybe be at the latter stages of the cycle. So this is the percentage

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of Bitcoin sold by long-term holders when accounting for the percentage of the circulating

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supply being held by long-term holders, which may sound confusing, but we can see throughout

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every single cycle, it's actually been a very reliable point throughout the cycle where we've

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seen the amount of Bitcoin being sold by long-term holders where Bitcoin is starting to top out. So

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I'd like to say, you know, there's a shortage of Bitcoin on exchanges. There's a shortage of

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Bitcoin on OTC desks. But ultimately, right now, even if we look to the ETFs and treasury companies,

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which have accumulated over 2.29 million Bitcoin, that's still only a fraction of the amount of

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Bitcoin that's actually been distributed by long-term holders. As much as the institutional

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influence is very much growing on Bitcoin. This is still a very much retail driven market,

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and especially a market driven by the supply and demand economics of those who have bought Bitcoin

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and held for many, many years and are now reaping the rewards of sufficient liquidity to be able to

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take some profit on their positions. Now, that's interesting. So is 8 million just

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$8 million worth? Or is that like 8 million total coins? That's 8 million total coins.

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So if you go to this chart here, if you look at the previous Bitcoin cycles, it's been a very kind of, again, granular amount of long term hold supply selling.

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So we look to this 2017 cycle, for example, here it started around 12 million.

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And as the Bitcoin price action peaked, it was about 8.7 million.

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So we saw multiple million Bitcoin being sold almost in a continuous phase of profit taking.

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Similar in 2021. Now, we did have that double peak cycle, which made it a little bit less granular.

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but in this cycle so far we've seen something very unique almost a triple peak cycle in terms

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of long-term holder distribution so if you just look at this chart you may think that maybe bitcoin

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isn't seeing a huge amount of profit taking because the amount of bitcoin held by long-term

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holders is still significantly higher than at any point during the previous bitcoin cycles but what

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we're doing when looking at these charts is actually cumulatively counting all of that long-term

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holder bitcoin profit taking so if you take into account all of the bitcoin that was sold or

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distributed by long-term holders in this first roundup of $74,000, in the first roundup of $100,000

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and over the past few months. Cumulatively, that's over 8 million individual Bitcoin. So this is a

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huge amount of selling. So again, it's one of those where as analysts and as people bullish on

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Bitcoin's future, we always try and find the silver lining. But genuinely from a purely unbiased,

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neutral analyst approach on the market, the fact that we've absorbed such a monumental

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amount of sell pressure throughout the past few months, well years really, and Bitcoin has still

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been making new highs and is still only 15 to 20% off its current all-time high, really underpins

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the strength that we're seeing in the Bitcoin market. So it's one of those where obviously it's

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not great to see more and more people selling, but like you said, if you've been holding from

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a few dollars to over $100,000, maybe you deserve a nice new house and a shiny car, etc. But just

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zoom out on the grand scheme of things, Bitcoin's recent dip is just that. It's just a dip. This

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isn't necessarily the beginning of a Bitcoin bear cycle. And if we are to start seeing this long-term

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holder supply, the distribution of these long-term holder coins begin slowing and some continued

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accumulation by ETFs and treasury companies and some more favorable macroeconomic conditions going

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into the latter stages of this year and into early next year, then again, I'm still thinking that the

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base case of Bitcoin is higher before we go lower. Now, now I got to ask you, because we talked about

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the four year cycle, you've been kind of just saying how this one's a little bit different.

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Is this one going to be extended into 26? And if so, do you have like a timeline prediction? I know

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you say you don't have a crystal ball, but just based on what you're seeing, give me an educated

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guess here. Where do you think the peaks of the cycle or have we already hit it?

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So, I really dislike falling into the narrative of this time is different because every single cycle there's been the narrative of this time is different.

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So I'm just sharing a chat at the minute, which is outlining something that I think Bitcoin has clearly been following a little bit more closely this cycle, which is global liquidity.

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Now, coincidentally to the Bitcoin's halving event schedule, we can see looking at the global M2 money supply on a year on year basis because typically we see this almost constantly increasing.

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but if we look at a year-on-year basis, we can actually see the acceleration or deceleration of that expansion and contraction.

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We can see that the periods where this has rapidly ascended has actually coincided with the Bitcoin halving events very nicely.

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We can see in 2020, around here, around March, April time, I think it was, that was just as this global M2 started rapidly accelerating to the upside.

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In the most recent cycle, again, we can see about April 20th of this cycle when Bitcoin's price was around $70,000.

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dollars. Following that we had a huge expansion in global m2 bitcoin rallied to over 120 000

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and for a couple months now this has actually been decreasing. Well the rate of expansion has slowed

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to the point where the year-on-year rate of change is actually declining. So this has coincided with

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the bitcoin price action again stagnating and being in this period of chopping and consolidation.

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So I think traditionally this has moved as the bitcoin halving event on a four-year cycle but

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if we just look to the current state of macroeconomic environments, if we look to the debt

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cycle and the traditional business cycle it looks like this could be extending into the potentially

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five or even six year cycle so for dates i don't know i'm not a macroeconomic guy it's not something

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that i really focus on the expiration of huge amounts of debt within the u.s economy for example

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but i do think that it's much better to react than predict and if we look at something like the

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comments made by powell if we look at something like the potential for the end of quantitative

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tightening which is supposedly just around the corner and the expansion of the federal balance

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sheet then again i think that this could be extended into q1 of 2026 into q2 of 2026 potentially

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and i know that's kind of being a contract contradicting what i said previously in that

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don't say that this time is different because of course that narrative has existed every single

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bitcoin cycle but it does look like this time might be different and i do think that we are

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going to see something lengthening i do think that we will see a big parabolic blow-off move

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to end the cycle at some point i don't know whether that's going to be at the end of 2025

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Q1 2026 or even later than that but as I always like to say it's much better to react than predict

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once we start seeing the futures market overly bullish once we see a huge amount of positive

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funding rates the fear and greed index incredibly high once we see everyone start longing Bitcoin

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and a huge amount of capital inflows into the market retail firm or participation these all

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kind of provide some confluence that the market is getting a little bit overheated now if we have

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actually peaked in this cycle if we are about to enter a Bitcoin bear market then it's probably

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the first time in history in any market where a vast majority of participants has been right.

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So just from a contrarian standpoint, I like to think that many people who are anticipating the

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four-year cycle to be the base case will be proven wrong. Many people are anticipating a cycle

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extending long far into 2026 and potentially beyond as a super cycle are probably also going

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to be proven wrong. It's probably just going to be somewhere right in the middle of that. The least

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anticipated outcome for Bitcoin is ultimately probably going to be the most probable.

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now with that is the having the effects of that is that almost a mute point at this point be just

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because of how little bitcoin is left to be mined i mean there's like one and a half million coins

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just left in circulation and last bull run we had exchanges blow up you saw ftx celsius blockfi you

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name it but the true power of bitcoin is getting it off an exchange into cold storage this bull run

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I'm trusting Trezor, the company that's been around for over a decade and they just had a

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00:27:32,647 --> 00:27:39,787
brand new release of the best hardware wallet in the game, the Trezor Safe 7. It's got the first

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00:27:39,787 --> 00:27:46,867
audible secure element. No other hardware wallet has this. On top of it, I travel a lot, so I need

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00:27:46,867 --> 00:27:53,487
an easy way to connect my Bitcoin hardware wallet to my laptop, phone, what have you. Therefore,

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00:27:53,487 --> 00:27:58,307
it is the easiest way and has the best connectivity to access your Bitcoin.

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00:27:58,687 --> 00:28:00,847
This is truly how you become your own bank.

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00:28:01,307 --> 00:28:04,007
And the best way to do that is with a Trezor Safe 7.

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00:28:04,326 --> 00:28:08,647
So you could go to the affiliate link down below and get yourself one right now.

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00:28:08,927 --> 00:28:12,907
And do it quickly because they are flying off the shelves, folks.

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00:28:13,247 --> 00:28:17,367
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00:28:17,887 --> 00:28:19,847
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00:28:19,847 --> 00:28:25,647
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00:28:25,647 --> 00:28:32,507
all right enough from me let's get back to the show at almost a mute point at this point be just

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because of how little bitcoin is left to be mined i mean there's like one and a half million coins

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just left in circulation and the changes okay they're they're going to be significant but um you

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You know, 450 Bitcoin is mined every single day right now as it stands.

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So what?

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I mean, you know, the less amount, is it just more based on the electricity cost or is it more on, you know, the mining supply?

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Like, how do you view the overall halving as having an effect on price going forward?

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Or is it more of the macroeconomic factors?

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I definitely think previously it was very much influenced by the Bitcoin halving event.

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But as you said, I think we're about 95, 96 percent of all Bitcoin that will ever exist are already in circulation.

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This is just a negligible amount of Bitcoin, honestly.

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The amount of Bitcoin that's being accumulated by treasury companies in ETFs is significantly more than this.

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So I think much more than that is the existing supply of Bitcoin and the more large scale macroeconomic factors.

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Now, I think long term, it's going to be interesting for Bitcoin.

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We're talking in a few cycles time more than anything.

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but at some point the block subsidy of bitcoin is going to be very minimal so for bitcoin to really

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thrive for decades to come we need to either see the fees in bitcoin's price within the blocks

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start massively increasing which as we've kind of transitioned from a pay-to-pay currency to a store

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of value it's looking unlikely that the revenue from fees is going to continue to exponentially

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increase but if the block subsidy again continues to half every four years which we can map out

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that's a certainty, then Bitcoin's price really has to double every four years for miners to

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maintain that level of profitability. So if at some point that starts to stagnate, then we may

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need to discuss further future incentives for miners, potentially reducing the block size is

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something that I've considered previously. Everyone talks about increasing the block size so we can

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get more transactions in. But I'd actually argue that maybe reducing the block size may be a better

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long-term solution to incentivizing Bitcoin miners to not only secure the network, but again,

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continue to allow transactions to go through to a fairly regular rate. But just on a more short-term

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basis, I do think that production cost, that electrical cost to mine Bitcoin is still a very

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important level to watch, even though it increases to the upside and the downside, of course, with the

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difficulty changes. Ultimately, if you can buy Bitcoin for less than it costs to actually mine

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one, historically, that's been a pretty good area to accumulate Bitcoin. It's almost like buying

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treasury companies like Strategy beneath a MNAV value of one. If you can buy one Bitcoin,

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$1 of Bitcoin for less than $1, then that's just good business. So I think it's going to be an

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interesting dynamic to watch going forward. And of course, this is something that extends into

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multiple decades time, not just over the current cycle. But the underlying bullishness or bearishness

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for the Bitcoin miners right now still shows that they are positive about the future price

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appreciation of Bitcoin. And historically, they've been a fairly good indicator of what's to come in

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the coming weeks and months. Now, is there any weight to the narrative that, you know, there's

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there's some potential paper Bitcoin out there with the amount of buying? Or is it just the data

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is just pointing that all these whales are just getting out at this point? There's always been an

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argument of paper Bitcoin. And there's always been an argument of now that the institutions are here,

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we're not seeing real underlying spot BTC. Maybe it's just centralized custodians like Coinbase,

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you know, internalizing their transactions on just a centralized database, which I'm sure is

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happening to some extent. But realistically, if you look to the previous cycles, FTX and Binance,

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do you really think every transaction happening on these exchanges were happening with

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real Bitcoin If anything now these big ETFs these treasury companies which are audited more heavily than any previously major crypto exchange these are all buying spot BTC

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And I'm sure that while there is some paper Bitcoin going around,

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and especially if you look to the CME markets and the options markets, the futures, etc.

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This is definitely taking some of the real underlying purchasing away from Bitcoin by just trading these derivatives.

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But people ignore the fact that throughout Bitcoin's entire history,

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people have been trading perpetual futures and futures contracts on Bitcoin, on centralized

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exchanges where real Bitcoin probably wasn't being traded anyway. So of course, it's going to be a

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constant talking point. But if you look to the gold industry, people have talked about market

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manipulation and paper gold as a serious issue for decades. But no one's really been complaining

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over the past year or so as gold prices rallied exponentially to the upside. So manipulation and

383
00:32:55,893 --> 00:33:00,533
paper Bitcoin and all of these things are always argued when Bitcoin's price is going down. But

384
00:33:00,533 --> 00:33:05,273
realistically, we could also say that if these treasury companies and ETFs start outflowing and

385
00:33:05,273 --> 00:33:09,893
selling Bitcoin during an uptrend, then if that paper Bitcoin isn't really hitting the open market,

386
00:33:09,893 --> 00:33:14,573
then it could be in our favor. So it's not something that I pay too much attention to the

387
00:33:14,573 --> 00:33:19,073
weight of paper Bitcoin. But again, it's always going to be that argument. It's just when things

388
00:33:19,073 --> 00:33:22,373
are bearish, people like to bring it up a little bit more than when things are a little bit more

389
00:33:22,373 --> 00:33:27,793
bullish. Yeah, exactly right. Everybody wants to try to give some reasoning behind why prices

390
00:33:27,793 --> 00:33:34,833
aren't accelerating and everything isn't exploding here. But you mentioned down to the downside and

391
00:33:34,833 --> 00:33:40,013
how we're kind of seeing this floor. You mentioned also that there was a potential of still the

392
00:33:40,013 --> 00:33:45,713
exponential swings to the upside. Are you, I guess, of the belief that the volatility is just going to

393
00:33:45,713 --> 00:33:53,753
keep going down? Yeah, I mean, volatility is as cyclical as price action, really. We see these

394
00:33:53,753 --> 00:33:57,753
periods of expansion and contraction. And historically, when we've seen levels of

395
00:33:57,753 --> 00:34:01,133
contraction that we're currently in, it's not lasted too long before we see a much larger

396
00:34:01,133 --> 00:34:06,113
directional trending move in the Bitcoin price. But again, it's just natural for an asset to go

397
00:34:06,113 --> 00:34:10,813
from a few billion dollars to a few trillion dollars to not have these violent thousand

398
00:34:10,813 --> 00:34:14,973
percent gains in a short space of time or big 90 percent bear markets. It's just the natural

399
00:34:14,973 --> 00:34:19,273
progression of Bitcoin. Now, we're always going to see boom and bust cycles like we have in all

400
00:34:19,273 --> 00:34:23,053
markets for literally centuries now. A lot of people that say, we're not going to have big

401
00:34:23,053 --> 00:34:26,593
blow-off tops or big bubbles in the market. We're not going to see big bear cycles. It's just going

402
00:34:26,593 --> 00:34:31,293
to be a continuous grind to the upside. I would love to be the case, but realistically, when there's

403
00:34:31,293 --> 00:34:36,213
cheap debt available, people take on excess risk. And when the market conditions throughout global

404
00:34:36,213 --> 00:34:40,353
economies are a little bit more bearish, people tend to scale into the more speculative and

405
00:34:40,353 --> 00:34:44,813
volatile assets, which of course cause bear markets. So I think that even right now, the

406
00:34:44,813 --> 00:34:49,753
volatility is very contracted, people tend to get lost in what's happening right now. And this cycle

407
00:34:49,753 --> 00:34:54,553
as a whole has definitely been a lot more boring, let's be honest, a lot more chopping and consolidating

408
00:34:54,553 --> 00:34:59,053
sideways price action. But as I said previously, we've already experienced five separate instances

409
00:34:59,053 --> 00:35:05,433
of the price rallying over 65% in under 100 days time, which from the current price action or around

410
00:35:05,433 --> 00:35:11,233
the current price action would take us to around $160,000, $170,000-ish in just about three months

411
00:35:11,233 --> 00:35:15,113
time. So at that point, I think people would, again, start to ignore the fact that we've been

412
00:35:15,113 --> 00:35:19,033
in a long period of consolidation. People would assume at that point that this rally is going to

413
00:35:19,033 --> 00:35:23,913
last forever. Bitcoin is going to rally to $250,000, $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 plus $1,000.

414
00:35:24,293 --> 00:35:27,973
But really at that point in time, the market is probably a little bit exhausted. The period of

415
00:35:27,973 --> 00:35:32,333
expansion is going to lead to more contraction. And again, the bubble will burst at some point.

416
00:35:32,493 --> 00:35:36,933
And even if the bear market isn't as severe as we historically have seen, because there's a lot

417
00:35:36,933 --> 00:35:41,793
more institutional influence. And again, just the market cap in general has increased and the amount

418
00:35:41,793 --> 00:35:47,673
of concentration of Bitcoin within large holders has massively distributed amongst many, many more

419
00:35:47,673 --> 00:35:53,053
participants. We're still probably going to get a 40, 50, 60, maybe even 70% drawdown, which I know

420
00:35:53,053 --> 00:35:57,533
will feel terrible. You look at the sentiment now is 20% down from the all-time highs and everyone's

421
00:35:57,533 --> 00:36:02,213
acting like it's bear market lows. Wait to see what the things are like in the middle of a Bitcoin

422
00:36:02,213 --> 00:36:06,173
bear cycle, which of course is inevitable. I'd love to be proven wrong on all this, by the way.

423
00:36:06,173 --> 00:36:10,733
I'd love to see Bitcoin enter this super cycle, decouple, never have a Bitcoin bear market. But

424
00:36:10,733 --> 00:36:14,933
again, just looking on the data, not just within the cryptocurrency markets, but all markets in

425
00:36:14,933 --> 00:36:19,873
general. On-chain data, everything we're looking at today is just mass psychology. And as much as

426
00:36:19,873 --> 00:36:25,793
markets may be evolving, everyone is still susceptible to fear and greed and just overexposing

427
00:36:25,793 --> 00:36:30,513
themselves and getting incredibly bearish. So looking at the data and act as a contrarian,

428
00:36:30,593 --> 00:36:34,413
historically has worked fairly well. So I'm going to bank on that working fairly well going forward.

429
00:36:34,413 --> 00:36:39,713
yeah i mean i agree with you i think once you get into this group think this is what we get right i

430
00:36:39,713 --> 00:36:45,433
mean everybody was saying oh it's uh october and moonvember like this is this is the time right

431
00:36:45,433 --> 00:36:51,853
we're gonna see a a massive shift in the upward uh direction here in this in this quarter and we

432
00:36:51,853 --> 00:36:56,173
just quite frankly haven't seen it at all and i think you know once you start to get in that group

433
00:36:56,173 --> 00:37:02,213
thing that's where we run into trouble here but i i do think that it's it's an interesting cycle

434
00:37:02,213 --> 00:37:08,313
And I think that from what I'm hearing as well, it seems like a lot of people are kind

435
00:37:08,313 --> 00:37:13,353
of of the opinion of you, like where it's, you know, it's a massive, you know, it's a

436
00:37:13,353 --> 00:37:17,333
massive asset, two and a half trillion to two trillion to two and a half trillion market

437
00:37:17,333 --> 00:37:21,553
cap, depending on the day, you know, whether we get these 20% drawdowns or not.

438
00:37:21,793 --> 00:37:26,533
And then, you know, we, everybody's saying, oh, it moves like the traditional asset.

439
00:37:26,653 --> 00:37:30,493
That's why we're not going to see the exponential moves to the top or the blow off the tops.

440
00:37:30,493 --> 00:37:41,713
And that's why I think that it's leading up to potentially being this bull off the top, maybe next year or the year after, because I do think that this cycle is going to be extended.

441
00:37:42,473 --> 00:37:52,353
And maybe we don't see as drastic to the downside where it's instead of the 80 percent, it's 60 to 70, you know, still still very bad.

442
00:37:52,353 --> 00:37:58,713
but um you know for the traditional investor but uh what what do you say like the the psychology

443
00:37:58,713 --> 00:38:03,233
from what you've kind of seen from the newer players getting in because i think i've heard

444
00:38:03,233 --> 00:38:11,853
you know checkmatey come on and uh say some things about this 95k level and how majority of wallets

445
00:38:11,853 --> 00:38:17,953
that have come in that are fairly new have this like 95k barrier and you know a lot of people

446
00:38:17,953 --> 00:38:23,593
potentially could sell under that because they're looking at their new coins. And that is just a,

447
00:38:23,833 --> 00:38:27,913
you know, hey, I'm out of money, let me get out of it. Despite, you know, what everybody says,

448
00:38:27,973 --> 00:38:33,413
hey, buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Nobody really actually does that. So do you take any

449
00:38:33,413 --> 00:38:37,993
weight to these new people coming in and potentially having those weak hands?

450
00:38:38,673 --> 00:38:44,333
One of my absolute favorite things about Bitcoin is meeting all of you in person. So mark your

451
00:38:44,333 --> 00:38:49,533
calendars for February 28th and come down to where I've called home for the past eight years,

452
00:38:49,913 --> 00:38:55,373
Tampa, Florida. The Bitcoin Bay Foundation is putting on the sound money soiree. It's the

453
00:38:55,373 --> 00:39:02,173
third annual. It's a night of Bitcoin, poker, an open bar, and a silent auction. All support will

454
00:39:02,173 --> 00:39:07,253
go to Bitcoin Bay, a nonprofit that is creating a circular economy down in Tampa Bay, Florida.

455
00:39:07,693 --> 00:39:12,933
They're doing absolutely great things and it's the Bitcoin community that I've called home

456
00:39:12,933 --> 00:39:18,393
for such a long time and these guys are absolutely crushing it so please do anything you can to

457
00:39:18,393 --> 00:39:24,293
support buy your tickets today you can use promo code green candle to get 10 off your sound money

458
00:39:24,293 --> 00:39:29,413
soiree tickets so do you know anything about bitcoin no you guys can come down and see this

459
00:39:29,413 --> 00:39:34,893
ugly mug come boogie on the dance floor shake it and now that bitcoin's over 100k you can do it all

460
00:39:34,893 --> 00:39:38,533
with your girlfriends all right on that for me let's get back to the show

461
00:39:42,933 --> 00:39:49,473
and sell at the top. Nobody really actually does that. So do you take any weight to these new

462
00:39:49,473 --> 00:39:52,613
people coming in and potentially having those weak hands?

463
00:39:53,673 --> 00:39:57,533
I think the new market participants, these big institutional investors,

464
00:39:57,993 --> 00:40:03,053
probably have a much longer timeframe horizon than what we've traditionally seen in Bitcoin. And

465
00:40:03,053 --> 00:40:08,053
the 95k level that you're referencing, which Checkmate has brought up, who's a

466
00:40:08,053 --> 00:40:11,093
great analyst in the space, someone I very much respect and look up to,

467
00:40:11,093 --> 00:40:18,393
is referring to the fact that over 50% of all capital inflows into Bitcoin came above $100,000.

468
00:40:18,673 --> 00:40:25,593
And around 95k, if we reach that level, around 60% of every dollar invested into the Bitcoin market

469
00:40:25,593 --> 00:40:32,193
would be underwater, which historically has acted as a pretty major indication of capitulation within the markets.

470
00:40:32,353 --> 00:40:37,773
Now, a rougher example of this, because I know he's done a lot of deep dive analysis on this,

471
00:40:37,913 --> 00:40:40,093
would be to just look at the realized price.

472
00:40:40,093 --> 00:40:43,573
Now, this is the average accumulation cost of all Bitcoin on the network.

473
00:40:43,693 --> 00:40:50,893
Now, the caveats with something like this is it's taking into account Bitcoin that was moved decades ago and bought it a fraction of a dollar.

474
00:40:51,033 --> 00:40:54,933
Satoshi's coins, for example, this is aggregating every single UTXO.

475
00:40:55,293 --> 00:41:01,273
Whereas if you look at the more active participants, if you look at the newer capital inflows into the market,

476
00:41:01,273 --> 00:41:09,633
then we can see that the realized price, the average accumulation price for a majority of new capital is somewhere around that 95K level.

477
00:41:10,273 --> 00:41:11,153
Now, it's one of these.

478
00:41:12,113 --> 00:41:17,173
Historically, we can see buying Bitcoin when there's blood in the streets, when a huge amount of people have capitulated,

479
00:41:17,513 --> 00:41:19,553
when Bitcoin is beneath this realized price.

480
00:41:19,893 --> 00:41:22,513
There's been a golden opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

481
00:41:22,513 --> 00:41:25,473
Now, it doesn't necessarily mark the exact bottom in price action.

482
00:41:25,973 --> 00:41:29,093
But again, it's just general market psychology, as you discussed.

483
00:41:29,653 --> 00:41:33,633
When a vast majority of people are incredibly bearish on an asset, when everyone's looking to sell,

484
00:41:33,633 --> 00:41:39,873
This is usually when the smart money, the sophisticated investors can realize this and start accumulating some discounted BTC.

485
00:41:40,453 --> 00:41:47,073
So again, I think there's a very technical and psychological element to Bitcoin sustaining a drop to beneath $100,000.

486
00:41:47,393 --> 00:41:50,013
We can see recently we've been just bouncing above that.

487
00:41:50,093 --> 00:41:51,433
We have had a few weeks of the downside.

488
00:41:51,913 --> 00:41:59,233
But I think if we do maintain above that 100K level, then things still look fairly positive on a more zoomed out macro basis.

489
00:41:59,233 --> 00:42:19,533
But yeah, I think as soon as we start getting into beneath $95,000, once the majority of ETF accumulators are underwater, especially once we start getting to treasury companies and sailors average accumulation price, which I think is around $75,000, that's going to really indicate peak capitulation within the market.

490
00:42:19,533 --> 00:42:25,693
And it's one of those where it'll feel terrible, but really those are the times where we really need to be actively looking to accumulate Bitcoin.

491
00:42:25,953 --> 00:42:33,853
It's just the kind of awkward range we're in now where could we see another 20% of the downside from here and reach $70,000, $80,000 region?

492
00:42:34,313 --> 00:42:42,313
Yeah, of course. But ultimately, if we do see that and it's only a 50%, only a 50% drawdown from the market peak that we set a few months ago,

493
00:42:42,533 --> 00:42:48,493
then ultimately that's still a much better situation to be in than at any point throughout Bitcoin's history previously.

494
00:42:48,493 --> 00:42:54,473
So I do think now the psychology of Bitcoin investors is we are going to see these reduced drawdown periods.

495
00:42:54,573 --> 00:43:02,173
We're not going to see these big 70, 80 percent massive bear markets where we want to see people offloading Bitcoin to try and avoid the worst of it.

496
00:43:02,693 --> 00:43:14,673
Realistically, if we're already 20 percent off the highs and there's only maybe 20 percent further down to go before we start getting into low territory, then again, maybe people are a little bit less willing to start selling their BTC.

497
00:43:15,393 --> 00:43:20,353
And again, like we could look at the long-term holder supply, still considerably higher than we've seen in previous cycles.

498
00:43:20,353 --> 00:43:25,893
If we look at something like the hotter waves data, which is looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held by different age bands,

499
00:43:26,293 --> 00:43:31,533
if we just take off all of the new market participants and look at, say, the one to two year plus,

500
00:43:31,533 --> 00:43:36,393
so anyone that's been holding Bitcoin for at least a year, even though it's been trending steadily to the downside,

501
00:43:37,113 --> 00:43:41,933
we're not seeing these big, massive moves, these exponential sell periods that we historically have seen.

502
00:43:41,933 --> 00:43:44,813
We're just seeing a much more gradual selling pressure.

503
00:43:45,213 --> 00:43:56,633
And the fact that when we look at the long-term holder supply, as I said, after these periods of long consolidation, these long periods of sideways price action, we actually see the long-term holder supply begin rapidly increase again.

504
00:43:56,833 --> 00:44:05,693
Indicating that these people who are accumulating this Bitcoin sold by long-term holders on these big exponential moves up weren't people buying just looking to make a quick buck.

505
00:44:05,933 --> 00:44:09,833
These are people buying and holding and transitioning into long-term holders.

506
00:44:09,833 --> 00:44:13,793
And we've seen this dynamic happen on multiple occasions already this cycle.

507
00:44:13,993 --> 00:44:20,073
So I do think, again, we discussed earlier the potential of a supply shock, discussing Bitcoin on exchanges and OTC deaths, etc.

508
00:44:21,193 --> 00:44:29,653
I think this trend of long-term holder supply continuing to increase is, again, going to continue into the coming years and especially into the next cycle.

509
00:44:29,653 --> 00:44:47,393
And at some point when the long-term oil supply of Bitcoin is 18 plus million towards 20 million, a vast, vast majority, over 80% of all Bitcoin is held by people who see it as a long-term store of value, who aren't looking to distribute their coins for any price, then we are going to see a supply chain.

510
00:44:47,473 --> 00:44:54,413
We are going to see a small amount of capital inflows having this radical impact to the positive upside effect of the Bitcoin price section.

511
00:44:54,593 --> 00:44:56,513
So it's a very interesting point right now.

512
00:44:56,573 --> 00:44:58,353
Of course, we're talking more big picture things here.

513
00:44:58,353 --> 00:45:04,533
I think if we do break beneath that 95k level and I see a huge amount of people underwater, again, I'm bullish on Bitcoin.

514
00:45:04,833 --> 00:45:11,473
It's a silver lining on everything. It will feel terrible, but ultimately it'll be a golden opportunity to accumulate some discounted BTC for the future.

515
00:45:11,913 --> 00:45:17,153
But as I said, my base case is still Bitcoin is going to make new highs before we enter a bear market.

516
00:45:17,153 --> 00:45:25,793
okay so they where when does a what's the bear market catalyst then is it just the natural cycle

517
00:45:25,793 --> 00:45:30,713
or what is you know they're going to be the reasoning here uh do you think that we're gonna

518
00:45:30,713 --> 00:45:36,073
i guess potentially see the next drawdown where a it's uh we're in a bear market what are you

519
00:45:36,073 --> 00:45:40,073
going to be looking for and what are some of the signs that you've seen in previous bear markets

520
00:45:40,073 --> 00:45:46,273
that kind of signal like hey this one's over this this bear this bull market has been a lot harder

521
00:45:46,273 --> 00:45:51,673
to gauge because as we could see with many of the on-chain metrics, previously we would see cycle

522
00:45:51,673 --> 00:45:56,493
peaks really obviously identifiable by the fact that we see a huge amount of liquidity coming

523
00:45:56,493 --> 00:46:00,593
into the market and a huge amount of long-term holders selling their Bitcoin. Because if you

524
00:46:00,593 --> 00:46:03,973
were holding a huge amount of Bitcoin, you couldn't actually start realistically taking

525
00:46:03,973 --> 00:46:09,573
a huge amount of profit until we saw this retail FOMO in. But now there's almost this constant buy

526
00:46:09,573 --> 00:46:14,953
pressure and buy support from these new deep wallet players coming into the market, willing

527
00:46:14,953 --> 00:46:20,653
to accumulate and rotate into Bitcoin seemingly at any price. So we've seen an almost constant

528
00:46:20,653 --> 00:46:25,913
amount of distribution from these long-term holders. So actually identifying when it's

529
00:46:25,913 --> 00:46:31,073
crossed into bear market territory has been a little bit trickier. But as I said, I think Bitcoin

530
00:46:31,073 --> 00:46:36,373
still has this incredibly strong correlation to specifically US equities and tech stocks.

531
00:46:36,693 --> 00:46:41,073
So even though we'd like to see Bitcoin decoupling and rely purely in the supply and demand economics

532
00:46:41,073 --> 00:46:47,293
of Bitcoin. If we are to see a more widespread global recession, if tariff talks don't have any

533
00:46:47,293 --> 00:46:54,353
kind of positive reaction, if we see more and more limitations coming in and more and more

534
00:46:54,353 --> 00:46:59,273
fear throughout traditional markets and economies, then Bitcoin is probably going to be the first

535
00:46:59,273 --> 00:47:02,873
thing offloaded by many of these institutional investors. Even though they're less willing to

536
00:47:02,873 --> 00:47:07,693
sell, it's not probably going to be like we've seen historically with retail going from one

537
00:47:07,693 --> 00:47:12,493
Bitcoin to selling 100% of it, it's probably just going to be a gradual scale out 1% to 2% of their

538
00:47:12,493 --> 00:47:16,933
entire portfolio held in Bitcoin every day or so. Again, it's going to be a lot more granular

539
00:47:16,933 --> 00:47:26,193
and rotating into more safe haven assets. But ultimately, I still think Bitcoin is in a situation

540
00:47:26,193 --> 00:47:32,573
where the upside is more favorable. If we look to macroeconomic conditions, I don't think, I think

541
00:47:32,573 --> 00:47:37,353
everyone needs to ask themselves, do you think that global governments are currently at a point

542
00:47:37,353 --> 00:47:40,473
in time where they're going to act a little bit more sensibly. They're not going to print their

543
00:47:40,473 --> 00:47:44,613
way out of problems. They're going to decrease overall debt and not expand their balance sheets.

544
00:47:44,953 --> 00:47:48,573
Is that going to be the case? Or is it much more likely that we can kick the can

545
00:47:48,573 --> 00:47:52,993
further down the road one more time? We're going to see huge stimulus coming into the markets. I

546
00:47:52,993 --> 00:47:57,973
mean, recently I saw a headline that Trump was considering sending stimulus packages of $2,000

547
00:47:57,973 --> 00:48:05,233
to everyone of lower incomes as a positive impact of the additional revenue from the tariffs. And if

548
00:48:05,233 --> 00:48:18,179
that happens like we saw with the stimulus in the COVID 2020 situation again this just allows more capital more money printing and people want to not just invest in things they want to protect their capital We can see

549
00:48:18,179 --> 00:48:23,340
the purchasing power of fiat currencies like the US dollar has continued to decline. And I don't

550
00:48:23,340 --> 00:48:27,679
think fundamentals within these markets matter as much as they used to. People used to look to stocks

551
00:48:27,679 --> 00:48:32,280
and think, how can we fundamentally value this stock? How can we see what their price to earnings

552
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:36,459
ratio is. I think in this day and age, people are just trying to protect the wealth that they

553
00:48:36,459 --> 00:48:39,919
already have. And it doesn't matter if we're seeing overvalued stocks. It doesn't matter if

554
00:48:39,919 --> 00:48:43,820
we're seeing commodities like gold rally to exceptionally new highs. It doesn't really

555
00:48:43,820 --> 00:48:49,780
matter if Bitcoin is at considerably new all-time highs. People still will rotate into these assets

556
00:48:49,780 --> 00:48:54,820
just as a means to protect their capital. So I'm very bullish on the upcoming weeks. I don't think

557
00:48:54,820 --> 00:48:59,179
that we're going to see some responsibility and sensible decision-making throughout governments

558
00:48:59,179 --> 00:49:03,560
and central banks. And I think that even though we're definitely not early in the cycle, I still

559
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:08,620
think there is still the potential and room to potentially extend into 2026, but definitely to

560
00:49:08,620 --> 00:49:14,200
still see this big blow off move as capital rotates into Bitcoin. Now, have you looked at

561
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:20,360
potentially pricing Bitcoin in gold comparatively to instead of pricing it in dollars? Because I

562
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:24,880
just think the volatility of dollars doesn't really, I mean, it's harder to, you know, like

563
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:29,300
you said, Trump or Powell could come out and say something or tweet something. And then that's

564
00:49:29,300 --> 00:49:34,860
honestly going to change everything. So have you looked at it at pricing as gold? And has that

565
00:49:34,860 --> 00:49:40,900
affected how you have, I guess, analyzed this cycle just because of how good gold is doing?

566
00:49:42,019 --> 00:49:48,740
Yes. If you can share a screen here. One of the kind of less optimistic things is looking at BTC

567
00:49:48,740 --> 00:49:53,380
priced in gold. We can see that we're actually beneath the highs we set in 2021.

568
00:49:53,380 --> 00:49:58,800
he won. Why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece of paper? It doesn't make sense.

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577
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:55,740
Green here. One of the kind of less optimistic things is looking at BTC priced in gold. We can

578
00:50:55,740 --> 00:51:01,900
see that we're actually beneath the highs we set in 2021. And this isn't an ideal situation to see,

579
00:51:02,019 --> 00:51:06,479
but it's one of these, again, where people who have seen the massive price ascension in gold,

580
00:51:06,740 --> 00:51:11,519
over a $10 trillion increase in about a year and a half. Bitcoin's only a $2 trillion asset. We'd

581
00:51:11,519 --> 00:51:16,200
only need a very small percentage of that capital to rotate into Bitcoin to potentially reach these

582
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:21,979
targets. So this conservative target of $150,000 would just be reaching the all-time high we'd set

583
00:51:21,979 --> 00:51:27,860
in the last cycle. The moderate target of $164,000 would be reaching the highs we set in this cycle,

584
00:51:27,860 --> 00:51:33,419
and the $211k would be based on a Fibonacci extension level. But I think that the trend

585
00:51:33,419 --> 00:51:37,260
that we're seeing, not just in gold, but in other markets as well, if you look to stocks like

586
00:51:37,260 --> 00:51:43,360
Nvidia is that institutional investors, those looking to rotate into markets and like we said

587
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:48,800
before, looking to rotate into fundamentally good bargain options, they're rotating into strength.

588
00:51:48,979 --> 00:51:53,820
Once we see gold start rallying exponentially, that train doesn't stop. We see more people

589
00:51:53,820 --> 00:51:58,580
rotating into gold and it becomes this almost positive feedback loop where people see positive

590
00:51:58,580 --> 00:52:02,499
price action and allocate into that, which results in more positive price action. Now,

591
00:52:02,499 --> 00:52:07,060
of course, this results in speculative bubbles and isn't sustainable indefinitely. But if you

592
00:52:07,060 --> 00:52:13,060
just looked at Nvidia and gold, these are far extended beyond what would be considered normal

593
00:52:13,060 --> 00:52:18,179
and fair valuations for these assets. But it is because people are looking to what has strength,

594
00:52:18,240 --> 00:52:22,179
what is showing strength to the upside and rotating into that. So I do think if Bitcoin,

595
00:52:22,620 --> 00:52:27,419
looking at its gold comparison chart, can break above these previous highs, people are going to

596
00:52:27,419 --> 00:52:32,860
see that. People are going to intuitively notice the strength throughout Bitcoin, start to observe

597
00:52:32,860 --> 00:52:36,999
its outperformance. And again, that's going to become a positive feedback loop where people start

598
00:52:36,999 --> 00:52:41,680
to rotate into Bitcoin as its sowing strength, then Bitcoin's price will see a positive reaction

599
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:46,019
following that. And people are going to see that and start rotating more capital into that. So I do

600
00:52:46,019 --> 00:52:50,999
think looking at charts like this are very valuable. If we look at Bitcoin priced versus the S&P 500,

601
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:56,200
for example, we're actually right on the previous all-time high retesting that. So we can start to

602
00:52:56,200 --> 00:53:01,140
hold that. Then again, I think that people start to observe the strength within Bitcoin and again,

603
00:53:01,140 --> 00:53:05,959
start more aggressively rotating into the market. But looking at a chart like this, I think maybe

604
00:53:05,959 --> 00:53:11,360
outlines why this cycle has felt less euphoric, a little bit more muted than previous cycles.

605
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,880
Because historically, we saw Bitcoin outperforming absolutely everything. If you look to the BTC

606
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:20,280
gold chart, it looked incredibly similar to the Bitcoin, just US dollar chart. Because once we

607
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:25,499
started to see these big euphoric moves, it was happening versus all assets. But now that Bitcoin

608
00:53:25,499 --> 00:53:30,140
has become this multi-trillion dollar asset, now that we're not seeing as exponential gains to the

609
00:53:30,140 --> 00:53:35,740
upside and diminishing volatility, alongside reckless policy decisions resulting in pretty

610
00:53:35,740 --> 00:53:40,979
much all assets having these big exponential moves, regardless of fundamentals, then it does

611
00:53:40,979 --> 00:53:45,780
feel muted because Bitcoin's underlying purchasing power is actually similar to what it was about five

612
00:53:45,780 --> 00:53:49,780
years ago when priced versus gold. But again, I don't think that this is going to continue. And I

613
00:53:49,780 --> 00:53:54,780
think that Bitcoin just needs a catalyst once we start seeing the government shutdown ending,

614
00:53:54,899 --> 00:53:58,860
once we start seeing, again, more stimulus and quantitative tightening coming to an end,

615
00:53:59,240 --> 00:54:03,060
more federal rate cuts, all of these point towards more favorable macroeconomic conditions.

616
00:54:03,060 --> 00:54:12,320
And again, it's a little bit like an avalanche. Once the money starts flowing into Bitcoin and we see the price positively react, it just is a magnet for more money and more capital to flow into the market.

617
00:54:13,220 --> 00:54:26,680
Now, that's that's really interesting here that you think that, you know, I mean, are that it's showing basically that it's at this, you know, I guess even levels with the 21 peak in both the S&P and in gold.

618
00:54:26,899 --> 00:54:32,720
Now, I'm curious, what is it going to take for Bitcoin to somewhat decouple from that?

619
00:54:33,060 --> 00:54:37,519
Because the narrative is kind of like, oh, Bitcoin is this tech stock.

620
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:43,120
And this is kind of where people flood their capital during some sort of volatile times.

621
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,620
And it's because it's the most liquid asset in the planet.

622
00:54:47,899 --> 00:54:50,800
It's, I guess, a love-hate relationship with that.

623
00:54:50,919 --> 00:54:55,260
Where when you start to see it crash, that's when people immediately pull out.

624
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:56,340
Or at least that's the narrative.

625
00:54:56,340 --> 00:55:04,100
So what is it going to take for Bitcoin to, I guess, decouple and become that safe haven asset that a lot of us in the Bitcoin space believe it is?

626
00:55:05,240 --> 00:55:07,540
I think we're already kind of in the process of that.

627
00:55:07,720 --> 00:55:14,300
Like I said, at the minute, we're currently too correlated with U.S. tech stocks and indexes like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

628
00:55:14,519 --> 00:55:25,380
And because we're more of a high beta play, when we see drawdowns in those indexes, Bitcoin is probably the first asset a lot of people holding in our portfolio will look to offload and rotate into safe haven assets.

629
00:55:25,380 --> 00:55:36,720
But I do think at some point Bitcoin is going to be more understood and more seen as this inflationary hedge and asset kind of against in spite of bad monetary policy.

630
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,560
As to when that's going to come to fruition, I don't know.

631
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:45,280
Of course, we're bullish on Bitcoin, so we'd like to see the decoupling event happening sooner rather than later.

632
00:55:45,540 --> 00:55:47,820
But ultimately, this is something that takes a lot of time.

633
00:55:47,899 --> 00:55:49,660
Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset.

634
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:54,260
And if you ask the average person, they still don't fully understand what Bitcoin really is.

635
00:55:54,260 --> 00:56:04,019
In only a year and a half, well, almost two years since the ETF launch, we've already seen tens of billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars rotate in from these institutional investors.

636
00:56:04,499 --> 00:56:09,380
They are starting to comprehend what Bitcoin is as an asset and starting to adopt this Bitcoin standard.

637
00:56:09,519 --> 00:56:10,840
Now, it is a very slow process.

638
00:56:11,340 --> 00:56:20,080
These big institutions managing trillions of dollars are going to instantly put a few percentage of their capital into Bitcoin simply because Bitcoin still isn't big enough.

639
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:27,780
Like we said previously, where now long-term holders are seeing sufficient liquidity to start distributing some Bitcoin to these institutional investors.

640
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:36,700
At some point, we're going to see the Bitcoin market cap increase and liquidity to be sufficient enough that we can actually see these larger funds start rotating into Bitcoin.

641
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:46,760
Because realistically, if BlackRock wanted to allocate 1% of their user holdings into Bitcoin, Bitcoin still isn't as big an asset as it needs to be to support such accumulation.

642
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:50,959
they're not going to buy bitcoin if knowing that their purchase is going to increase the price of

643
00:56:50,959 --> 00:56:56,080
bitcoin by 50 or 100 that's just bad accumulation that's just bad business what they're going to do

644
00:56:56,080 --> 00:57:00,999
is accumulate on every single dip minimize that downside volatility and again it's one of these

645
00:57:00,999 --> 00:57:05,660
positive feedback loops where the bigger bitcoin's asset cap grows the bigger the market cap increases

646
00:57:05,660 --> 00:57:10,919
the more liquidity it can handle the more people are willing to just invest a small amount of their

647
00:57:10,919 --> 00:57:16,019
portfolio into the market so it's very gradual we're going to see small rotations of portfolios

648
00:57:16,019 --> 00:57:19,999
just one or two percent here and there. And as Bitcoin grows from this positive feedback,

649
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:24,540
it just allows more capital to flow in. And at that point, at the point of Bitcoin being

650
00:57:24,540 --> 00:57:28,479
sufficiently liquid and sufficiently large to support all of these capital inflows,

651
00:57:28,780 --> 00:57:32,899
which may be five years time, might be 10 years time. At that point, I could see a genuine

652
00:57:32,899 --> 00:57:37,880
decoupling event where Bitcoin isn't just a high beta play of equities. Bitcoin moves as an

653
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:41,680
independent asset. And of course, like we said, it will still have these boom and bust cycles,

654
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:48,380
But it's not going to be dependent purely on what's happening in tech stocks or the US equity stock market.

655
00:57:48,519 --> 00:57:51,939
It's going to be more dependent on the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

656
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:55,360
It's going to be more dependent on the global liquidity and business cycle.

657
00:57:55,620 --> 00:57:59,200
And again, it's just going to be underpinned by the supply and demand economics of Bitcoin.

658
00:57:59,300 --> 00:58:09,660
And if we are beginning to see the startings of a squeeze in supply, if we are seeing less and less available liquid BTC available for these institutions to accumulate,

659
00:58:09,660 --> 00:58:15,180
then again, basic supply and demand economics, the price is going to be favorable in terms of

660
00:58:15,180 --> 00:58:21,100
its reaction to that. Now, I got to ask you then, when do you think we get to $1 million Bitcoin?

661
00:58:22,860 --> 00:58:27,660
Good question. I actually did an analysis on this very recently using some very dubious

662
00:58:27,660 --> 00:58:34,840
speculation and some very, let's say, I won't say reliable methods. I'm not a big fan of the

663
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:39,140
power law or linear regression models or anything because they kind of repaint and historically

664
00:58:39,140 --> 00:58:44,399
change so they always seem accurate. But to kind of gauge the general trend of something like the

665
00:58:44,399 --> 00:58:50,459
compounded annual growth rate of Bitcoin, I see that as a potentially semi-useful method. And again,

666
00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:54,300
pairing that with something like the production cost, which again is a fairly predictable trend

667
00:58:54,300 --> 00:58:58,979
of Bitcoin. We know every four years the supply, the inflation rate is going to decrease by 50%.

668
00:58:58,979 --> 00:59:04,840
We can kind of model the efficiency of miners and the hash rate based on that following a semi-rough

669
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:13,220
linear regression channel. So I think somewhere around 2032, that 2030 to 2035 period, we could

670
00:59:13,220 --> 00:59:18,499
reach a million dollars. But that's in a million dollars in today's money. If we actually look at

671
00:59:18,499 --> 00:59:24,140
the liquidity injections, the fiat debasement, a million dollars in 10 years time is not going to

672
00:59:24,140 --> 00:59:28,620
be a million dollars in today's money. In terms of a million dollars of purchasing power in today's

673
00:59:28,620 --> 00:59:33,899
money, then again, we're probably looking slightly later 2035 to 2040. But again, if you look at an

674
00:59:33,899 --> 00:59:39,720
asset like Bitcoin. In 10 years to see a 10x as a genuine realistic probability is still the best

675
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:44,479
asymmetric opportunity that exists across pretty much any market. Unless you get into very speculative

676
00:59:44,479 --> 00:59:49,919
quantum and AI stocks, Bitcoin has stood the test of time for well over a decade. Clearly,

677
00:59:49,919 --> 00:59:54,019
Bitcoin is here to stay. Clearly, it's being adopted by not just institutions and treasury

678
00:59:54,019 --> 00:59:58,880
companies, but nation states as well. And considering the fact it is still just a $2

679
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:03,919
trillion dollar asset, less than a tenth of gold's market cap. The opportunity here is still

680
01:00:03,919 --> 01:00:08,260
absolutely monumental. And I don't think it's going to be too long before people start really

681
01:00:08,260 --> 01:00:12,620
realizing this. And even though 10 years might seem like a long time away, to enter seven figure

682
01:00:12,620 --> 01:00:17,300
territory for an offset that will be just about two decades old at that time is a monumental

683
01:00:17,300 --> 01:00:23,939
achievement. Now, do you take any account of Bitcoin or like these financialized products,

684
01:00:23,939 --> 01:00:29,959
that Saylor is trying to build right now with trying to tap into the fixed income and the global

685
01:00:29,959 --> 01:00:36,580
bond market as potentially coming in. Because the narrative previously was just all about Bitcoin is

686
01:00:36,580 --> 01:00:43,180
digital gold, it's going to take the gold market over. But these $145 trillion global bond market,

687
01:00:43,180 --> 01:00:50,459
the $300 trillion global bond market, the $145 trillion fixed income market. And then you got

688
01:00:50,459 --> 01:00:55,600
the real estate market where people are looking at, oh, we can use Bitcoin as collateral for

689
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:58,899
mortgages and all these different markets that Bitcoin is starting to take over.

690
01:00:59,300 --> 01:01:04,820
Is this just part of the general, I guess, Bitcoinization of finance?

691
01:01:05,519 --> 01:01:09,979
Or is this something that you think that is going to accelerate Bitcoin adoption?

692
01:01:11,860 --> 01:01:15,660
Listen, I think a lot of my analysis is too rational.

693
01:01:15,660 --> 01:01:26,320
The thing that really drives these huge cataclysmic events, not just in finance, but innovation, technology and human history is the long tail events.

694
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:28,560
These things that no one could really foresee coming.

695
01:01:29,140 --> 01:01:36,060
And I think Saylor expanding into the fixed income markets with products like Stretch, which I think is incredibly interesting.

696
01:01:36,060 --> 01:01:43,620
and a lot of these other derivatives, which, again, are just allowing Bitcoin to be more than just a speculative store of value asset,

697
01:01:43,620 --> 01:01:46,999
but can become more of this financial system.

698
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:51,740
I think, again, maybe we're underestimating the impact of these long term.

699
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:58,919
If suddenly global transactions, global debts, international trade can be conducted and will be conducted on Bitcoin,

700
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:03,640
then all bets are off. Who knows how high we could go in a very short space of time?

701
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:14,399
And I think what Saylor is doing in just increasing the awareness and increasing the availability and options to these institutional markets, to the existing fixed income bond markets, etc.

702
01:02:14,620 --> 01:02:24,680
is, again, maybe not great for MSTR shareholders because it's maybe diluting their shares and maybe lessening the positive impact of holding MSTR directly.

703
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,880
But for Bitcoin as a whole, I think it's incredibly positive.

704
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:35,780
And trying to analyze an irrational asset like Bitcoin in a very rational way over a long, long term is potentially short sighted.

705
01:02:35,860 --> 01:02:48,860
And if these products really do start accelerating the adoption of Bitcoin, really do start increasing the usability and functionality of Bitcoin as a settlement layer for huge multi billion, multi trillion dollar settlements.

706
01:02:48,860 --> 01:02:56,680
Then again, Bitcoin can really start fulfilling its potential and exceeding price expectations a lot sooner than maybe many are anticipating.

707
01:02:57,499 --> 01:03:01,340
Well, yeah, Saylor's an absolute G for doing all of this in Bitcoin.

708
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:04,680
I mean, it's absolutely incredible how many markets he's starting to tap into.

709
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,680
So it's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.

710
01:03:07,959 --> 01:03:09,840
But Matt, you've been very generous with your time.

711
01:03:09,919 --> 01:03:14,320
Why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and see what you got going on?

712
01:03:15,180 --> 01:03:21,419
Well, if you go to BitcoinMagazinePro.com, you'll get access to all of our charts, analytics, data,

713
01:03:21,660 --> 01:03:24,060
trading view indicators, API access, all that good stuff.

714
01:03:24,060 --> 01:03:28,720
you can follow me on twitter and youtube at bitcoin magazine pro you just search anything

715
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:32,780
like that then you'll get it there my personal is matt crosby pro but don't feel like you have

716
01:03:32,780 --> 01:03:37,360
to follow me there all the good stuff's on bitcoin magazine anyway and yeah brandon as always it's

717
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:40,979
been a pleasure thank you very much for having me i'm looking forward to catching up in person in

718
01:03:40,979 --> 01:03:45,180
just a few hours time here at bitcoin amsterdam where we're both presenting so should be a good

719
01:03:45,180 --> 01:03:49,280
conference and a lot of fun yeah man for sure we're gonna we're gonna share some of the local

720
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:54,700
brewskis out here and enjoy it. So I'm looking forward to seeing you. And yeah, thanks for coming

721
01:03:54,700 --> 01:04:00,380
on. Anytime. Thank you guys all for tuning into another great episode of the State of Bitcoin

722
01:04:00,380 --> 01:04:05,140
podcast. If you found some value in this one, please hit that subscribe button and that like

723
01:04:05,140 --> 01:04:08,979
button to help send this one to the masses. And I've got a surprise for you guys. I've got two

724
01:04:08,979 --> 01:04:13,260
more episodes that you have the chance to watch here. So go ahead and click one of them and I'll

725
01:04:13,260 --> 01:04:14,620
see you guys all at the next one.