Bitcoin, in my view, has been signalling there's something wrong in the global market for months, months now.
And everyone was like, oh, Bitcoin's just having a week.
I'm like, no, dude, Bitcoin's telling you that your equity market is in trouble.
And I think a lot of people are going to get taken by surprise.
There'll be a lot of people who sold now.
And yeah, they're going to miss the road.
2026, 2027, moving forward, I think 2026 is actually going to be kind of crazy.
And this is what I think toddlers need to take away from this.
We have been seeing tens of billions of dollars a week getting absorbed by someone.
Endless selling up in that 90k, 95k, 100k zone.
And yet the market didn't go to 75k.
It didn't go to 60k.
The demand.
This is the thing.
Who on earth is buying tens of billions of dollars a week and just like absorbing it like a champion?
They don't care if the market's gone wrong.
The folks who have bought those coins are forever allocators.
And they've got deep, deep pockets.
So I think for the others in the audience,
this is why I'm turning on my DCM.
Because my conviction of where this ends up,
like 2026, 2027, moving forward,
Bitcoin is going to be just so much higher.
So I am absolutely a buyer down at these prices.
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All right, now let's get back into this great interview.
Bing bong.
I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, James Check or Checkmatey here back in the house.
I had to get him on because Bitcoin is crashing and burning.
It's game over, man.
We're at 92K at the time of this recording.
but you previously had a nice little, I guess, snippet from another podcast that I was listening
to about this 95K barrier. We're beneath that now, Chuck Matey. So I got to ask you,
is the bull run over or what's going on with this current price action?
Yes. So the way to think about the market as it stands today, there was a piece that I released
on the 16th of October. So we had that big deal averaging on the 10th.
that's the second all-time high the first one was 124k which i believe was in august
after the august sell-off i was trying to understand have we topped and i developed
this concept called the hodler's wall and the hodler's wall if you can envision a chart where
it's basically the supply show me all the bitcoin supply x-axis is price we had a lot of supply up
above 90k 95 was really what i called the base of the wall long-term holders were there short-term
holders were there at the time it was like 53 55 of all the wealth that's ever been invested in
this is in august was in that zone now i started writing about that because i was concerned that
that first 124 peak we came off it so savagely i was like it doesn't feel right anyway the idea is
i started to continue right piece saying guys the hodler's wall seems to have held because we went
back to 126. And then we had that 10th of October deleveraging. And on the 16th of October, I wrote
a piece called On the Cusp. And it would have probably been around this time that I was on that
pod. I think you're talking about the one with Marty on TFTC. And On the Cusp is where Check the
Bear, who hasn't been out all cycle, Check the Bear showed up. So this is six days after that
deleveraging. I said, guys, I've just sold my MSTR position. And let me tell you something,
the amount of people who told me i was a limp dick um softy for selling my mstr how you feeling now
um i had to get out because i was like something feels wrong right check the bear i wasn't ready
to call bear market but what i did say is guys we're no longer at 50 of all the wealth up here
we're now at 65 so i think it was about 60 and now we're at 65 of all the wealth that's ever
been invested if you price every utxo when it last moved on chain 65 of it is above 95k and i started
talking about that level and saying, look, that's the bull's last stand. Now there's levels that we
have to go down below there before we get to 95, obviously. On the cusp was written about 113,
115. I was saying, look, we're below the first line of defense, but we're hanging in there.
And then we got down to the second line of defense, which was 100k. So guys are starting
to get a bit hairy, start thinking about a bear market. Then we got to 95. And that piece was
called the bull's last stand because we've been talking about this for months. It's just a really
key level in the piece I wrote recently called The Bull's Last Stand.
This is what makes this market structure so interesting.
The amount of sell side that we've seen in the last three months, people have finally
started talking about OG selling.
Get rid of the OG.
There's just been selling.
Lots and lots of spot selling.
Shitloads of it.
Tens of billions of dollars, billions of dollars a day.
People have finally worked out that that was going on.
And honestly, it was quite remarkable that we went sideways through most of that.
However, we're also depositing more and more and more coins at these higher cost bases.
And the challenge is that right now, there's a lot of people who are now underwater on their
position.
So this is starting to enter the world that I call top heavy.
Top heavy means you have too many people who bought too many coins at too high of a price.
It is the market structure that creates bears of the past.
Now, this particular structure is unique in all.
if we're going to call it a bear market, it is already unique because it still looks like a dip.
This is the crazy thing about this particular market structure. I think bear market thinking
is the correct way to analyze this market now because of the sentiment angle. However,
we are already starting to form, I don't believe we bottom here at 90. I think we have further to go.
However, are we going down to 50?
I think that's a bit much.
I really think the AI bubble has to go to zero for us to go down to 50.
I think something really bad has to happen.
So we're in this very strange world where if we go down to the mid-85s,
it's going to feel horrible.
Mid-80Ks are going to be absolutely terrible, but that's a 35% dip.
Is that a bear?
Is everyone going to reset their cycle charts and say that was FTX level
or that was COVID bottom level or that was end of 2018 or the bottom of 2015.
Is that at 35%?
Is that where everyone's going to go, oh, that was bear market floor?
We don't know where this goes, mate, but I'll tell you what,
bear market thinking right now is the right way to do it.
Hope for the best, but certainly put yourself in a bear market perspective.
But also, this bear is going to destroy so many analysts
because they're going to try and use patterns of the past
they're going to call down going down to like the realized price or getting down below some random
moving average they've pulled out of nowhere and said it always goes below this this whatever this
bearish thing is is going to completely break everyone's head because it's going to be very
very different to what we've seen in the past um and you got it i've been saying this all cycle
you have to be so flexible in how you want to analyze this cycle because it's different
measurably different on so many fronts taking the old world and trying to apply it to the new world
is just going to get you lost in the weeds.
So is the bull market over then?
Is that what you're telling me here?
There's a great many signs.
I mean, really, as we broke down below,
again, that first line of defense still looks good,
but also be cautious below 100K.
Now we're going to be real cautious.
Also dip zone.
Like I bought plenty of coins in the 100K zone.
By the time we got to 95,
I also like, I think about this from two perspectives.
Me as a Bitcoin investor, as a hodler,
I love everything below 100K.
Give it to me all day.
I'm turning back on my DCA.
I really turned it off for the most part above 100K
just because I don't like buying late stage bulls.
So I really haven't been accumulating that much
in the last, let's say, almost 12 months.
I've now turned back on my DCA.
We're back below 100K.
I'm very happy to keep stacking down here.
Check the analyst.
My job is to be very objective and say,
guys, I don't think we're done yet.
You know, we got down as low as 89.
There was a lot of liquidations
that happened on the way down there.
I don't think we've hammered out the bottom yet.
I don't think there's enough signs that we've hammered out the bottom yet.
We've broken out of the channel we've been in since FTX blew up.
There's just a lot of things that have switched over to bear market type structure.
But again, this bear market is a one of one.
It doesn't look like previous bears.
I'm sorry, but you just don't have these kind of waterfall sell-offs in a bull market.
There is something very, very different.
Everyone knows it.
Everyone can feel that this sell-off feels different to all of the previous corrections
that we've had.
The likelihood that we rally and then set a macro lower high and then roll back over
is very, very high in my view.
Okay, that's interesting.
Is there like another floor, so to speak, that you see or another level?
Because I mean, I know you were talking about the wealth being above 95K in the previous
episode that we referenced a little bit earlier.
Or do you see like another wall where, all right, you know, even though it's like 65%
here, it increases to, I don't know, 85% or something like that.
Maybe at like 70K or something.
Yeah.
But basically the 2024 chop solidation zone, that whole zone between like, let's just say
60 and 70, it's kind of the bulk of it.
That is like, I would be very, very surprised.
We might bottom in that zone.
I don't think we go down.
Like anyone calling for 30K, good luck.
Anyone calling for 40K, good luck.
Like, can it happen?
Yes.
am I going to assign a 10% probability to it?
No, I think it's a very slim chance.
So I'm not too concerned about going below that zone.
I think at a minimum, sorry, at the worst case,
we bottom in that 2024 chop zone.
But I actually think we probably get arrested higher than that.
I would say somewhere in the 80s, maybe mid 80K,
and we bottom there in the tariff tantrum.
I can see it kind of selling off down to like 75 or 70
and just getting everyone just out of their mind.
And then you get a big hammer candle back up into the 80s.
I think we hammer out a bottom somewhere in there. But I do think there's a lot of this being driven
by macro as well. It's going to very much depend, like the equities market starts coming with us,
you know, then things can really start to cascade. So I don't know, no one does. I would be amazed
if we bottom below the 2024 zone. And I do think we probably get arrested higher up than that.
Now, I know you're saying like this cycle is just completely different, just based on, you know,
the market dynamics. And you kind of hinted at it, I believe, a little bit earlier about how we're
going to just dip below and then potentially, you know, because there's so many, there's so much
buying pressure still, that we could, you know, see another rise up here in the near future,
like this isn't going to be a prolonged bear. At least I don't want to put words in your mouth.
That's what it seems like, at least to me, from what you're saying. Is that right?
I don't think that the people who are saying see you in four years,
good luck with that.
I think it's going to be a much, much shorter process.
I think like all bear markets,
it's going to be a lot more volatile and challenging.
There'll be a lot of false starts.
Hammering out a floor takes time and it takes pain.
So I don't know when we get there and I don't know how we get there,
but I don't believe we're going to be, you know, see you in 2027.
We're still dicking around down here and we haven't made any progress.
Like I don't think that's how it's going to go.
in order to go lower i do think that there has to be more more and more cracks in like the equity
market or something else and there's just a pain threshold where the powers that be need to come
with a bazooka they just have to like they're gonna have to get re-elected they can't go with
like the stock market falls down people start getting fired no one's happy already like you're
gonna make them more unhappy like the unfortunate incentive structure of the fiat system is that
there's really a very small pain threshold bitcoin in my view has been signaling that
There's something wrong in the global market for months, months now.
And everyone was like, oh, Bitcoin's just having a shitty week.
I'm like, no, dude, Bitcoin's telling you that your equity market is in trouble, that
your bond market is in trouble.
Bitcoin has been sending the fire alarm signal saying, I know everyone's talking about M2
and liquidity charts and like presenting their bias.
Bitcoin is telling you that liquidity conditions are not good.
That is like, you can have a thousand and one liquidity indexes.
I look at Bitcoin and say that's the liquidity index right there and it's not so good.
Okay. So then, yeah, what does this mean? What is it showing us for the overall equity markets?
Is there about to be a big crash? Do you think that this is basically showing that there's
a potential for a recession? Of course, if they open the floodgates and start printing money,
that'll change. But is that kind of what it's signaling in your opinion?
I think so.
I mean, like, you know, I don't know how long this AI thing can go on for, but what I do
know, like the facts and the reality of the world, they're spending trillions of dollars
with a T, trillions of dollars on CapEx and OpEx, and they're making like tens of billions
of dollars in revenue.
The numbers don't math, right?
So now there's a lot of reasons why these hyperscalers are doing it.
There's government incentives that they want to do this.
They want to win the AI race.
This is all very real.
There's also like Google has to protect their existing business because if
everyone's going to chat GPT rather than paying Google for search, that's their
business model in trouble. So a lot of this spending is like defensive as well.
So there's a lot of different focus elements here. Everyone's looking at this
thing going where the money Where the money There a lot of spending but where the money Like you not making money There no revenue here So the whole market has got itchy fingers They been riding this AI wave higher
No money manager can not be on the AI wave because then the other guy is making money.
So everyone's piling into this thing.
So everyone's got itchy fingers being like, this is dumb and doesn't make sense.
But I don't want to be the first guy to sell.
I also don't want to be the last guy to sell, but I don't want to be the first guy.
So everyone's just waiting for this moment.
So I think some kind of a correction has been just so overdue, so overdue across all markets.
And it feels to me like if there's a time for it to happen, this is probably it.
But given the government incentives and the imperatives, it's going to get arrested.
But sometimes you've got to go down to go up.
And I really think that's the correct way to think about this.
Is this, I guess, the lining out of a potential bubble then here?
um i don't know if the bubble pops here because bubbles have corrections as well so i've kind of
the view that everything has kind of been slowed down so we're watching this bubble but it's kind
of just like creeping and drifting higher and then like you get a correction and then it just
creates a slingshot for the next move i don't know if we've hit like the bubble the top like the
actual top usually it gets ridiculous you know i mean nvidia got to five trillion we're already
talking about some kind of stupid numbers here, you know, given that all their customers are
financing each other with their own stock and their own money and now like debt's starting to
creep in. Like there's a thousand and one things here, but you know, just as a market commentator
and observer, I've seen these kind of moves enough time to be like, it's expensive at a minimum.
These stocks are not cheap. So at some point there's going to be a re-rating. And the question
is, I mean, ultimately what's the difference between a bear market and a correction? One
doesn't re-rate higher, right? The difference between a bull and a bear market is that bulls
have corrections, but they get bought the dip and then next thing you know, you're back to all-time
high. Bears, they're a process. They take a lot longer to belt out a floor and like actually find
demand. Things are going to re-rate lower sometimes and then the fundamentals have to kind of catch up.
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trusted, proven. They take a lot longer to belt out a floor and like actually find demand. Things
are going to re-rate lower sometimes. And then the fundamentals have to kind of catch up.
Okay. And then, you know, you said you sold the MSTR not too long ago. And I think that is kind
of interesting. Obviously, it was great timing because the MNAV now is beneath one. I believe
in that same podcast, you were talking about how all these treasury companies were buying. And,
you know, you think that basically all of these treasury companies, their MNAVs or their premiums
are just all going to go to one or maybe even less. So what does this, you know, bear market
mean for all of these treasury companies? And is this going to be like, I guess, a potential
catalyst to have a few of these start to blow up? Because we've all had them all come online
basically in the past six to 12 months or so. So all of these, I think at the time of Trump
getting elected, there were 64. Now there's 208. So the other 140 companies that have come on in
this past year have basically just seen a bull market and haven't seen Bitcoin at this low.
So is this going to shake a lot of those out potentially? And with that, what are some of
the potential, I guess, effects you can foresee with that? Yeah. Look, the treasury company trend,
if there's one area of this market that I've been vocal on and received immense amount of
push back on. It was this. And my claim was, and I started talking about this back in November of
last year when MSTR is hitting all-time highs and the guys, MNAVs are these things going to compress
to one. And the further out in the risk curve you are, the more savage your bear market's going to
be. What I didn't realize is the bull market was going to be savage to them as well. Most of these
things were down 50, 60, some 90% in the bull as Bitcoin hit all-time highs. The bear is going to
be absolutely brutal to these things i'm sorry and and you can take your favorite ignore mstr
take your favorite treasury company and divide it by fart coin or some other shit coin
the treasury company got so much more wrecked than even alts did it's brutal so like it this is just
a fact on the ground this is how this market has played out there i for a very long time in fact my
My position has been very firm for a long time that MSTR is in a different world.
Everything else is not MSTR.
The difference between 640,000 Bitcoin and 5,000 Bitcoin is approximately 640,000 Bitcoin.
There is just no comparison here.
Bitcoin goes to a million dollars.
Your 5,000 Bitcoin is worth 5 billion.
Great.
You're not changing anything in the world with a $5 billion market cap.
It's just not happening.
So I think that the treasury company complex, the hype was massive.
The amount of actually buying that occurred was nowhere near the hype.
nowhere near the hype the etfs have consistently been much much larger in terms of the demand side
than the treasury companies and a lot of these treasury companies didn't actually buy any bitcoin
anyway if you actually spend five minutes going through bitcoin treasuries.net which is a great
site you'll find how many of these treasury companies have like one big slug where they
bought like 5 000 coins 2 000 coins and that's it it's basically an insider pipe deal and then all
these investors came in and bought their stock at the high they never actually bought any bitcoin
They never minusized the premium.
We saw some of them even selling their Bitcoin now because they are too levered.
Like, bro, how did you get too levered?
Like, this is not hard to work out that the market was not cheap at 126.
Like, sure, a lot of people thought that we were going to go higher, myself included.
But by the time we got back down to 115, 110, it's like, you know, I think on Marty's podcast,
guys, if we go below 110, you really got to start questioning this bull thesis.
And some of these companies are levering up.
It's like, I'm sorry, but this is not rocket science.
You're buying the top and you're about to get smoked.
So I think a lot of these companies do have to get washed out simply because bear markets,
in capitalism, the bear market's job is to flush out the dumb ideas.
And these companies are absolutely dumb ideas across the board.
There is a handful of winners that will come out of this thing.
The market is just proving that, I'm sorry, there's just no demand.
like even sailors preferred stocks, all of them, as of yesterday,
were trading below $100 face value.
If strategy can't raise debt and preferred equity,
Mr. Treasury Company number 45 ain't got a hope in hell.
You're in a world of trouble.
I don't even think people want to acquire these things
because it costs them money to undo the existing business.
So, yeah, I think the Treasury Company model is very challenged.
We'll see.
There'll be phoenixes that rise from the ashes,
but like this whole, we need 600 of these things in every country, not happening.
So what do you do?
I mean, you mentioned the sailors preferreds.
Do you think that the market just needs time to develop these
or is the market just showing that there's really no demand yet?
Oh, there will be demand for sure, for sailors preps, no question.
I don't think we have it yet,
but I do believe that the products that he is selling there, no question.
I've had countless conversations,
often with Bitcoiners who are late in their Bitcoin journey.
Could be that they're retiring.
Could be that they've just got a bunch of money
and they want to just have...
There's a lot of Bitcoiners out there, no question.
Feast preferreds, they can go and put a million bucks in there
and bang, you got a hundred grand salary.
That's a great way to retire if he can keep that going.
Saylor can do that with 640, 650,000 Bitcoin.
your company with 2000 coins you aren't big enough to justify me any like there's never
going to be liquidity for these preferred so um i've often been of the view that uh the means by
which they accumulate the bitcoin the preferreds strategies are bond salesmen that's their product
they sell bonds totally makes sense mr treasury company 500 who just sells stock at a premium and
And then once their stock goes underwater, they don't have a premium, so they can't actually
do anything.
Good luck.
You have no business model.
That's the problem.
You're a zombie company with a bunch of Bitcoiners who thought they could get rich, and it's
kind of smoked all of their investors.
Honestly, it's really tough to watch because I know treasury company bulls like to sweep
this under the rug, but so many Bitcoiners got caught up in this hype, and you have decimated
their portfolios.
And it's free market.
Go and buy whatever you want.
looks like shit coins to me now uh i think like last cycle we saw a lot of this at least i'm kind
of seeing some similarities with like these bitcoin mining companies that were essentially
levering on their bitcoin miners and they did that kind of at the top and we saw a lot of them
explode on the way down of course the strong survived uh is this going to be kind of do you
see that kind of market starting to play out in the treasury companies kind of similarly
in a sense no i do and i think the uh there will be phoenixes that rise out of this thing no
question and yeah what i think is going to be a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow
is if you look at mstr if you bought mstr at a 2x mnav the kind of the the idea of the mnav
is that it's like a growth it's like a p ratio or like a growth multiple the simple way to think
about is if you've got an mnav of two the market is assuming you're going to be able to double your
Bitcoin stack. You're going to grow into your MNAV. Can strategy buy another 650,000 Bitcoin?
Well, noting that in bear markets, including this one, because if you look at strategies
accumulation, it's flat. He's buying 600 coins now, not 60,000. He's in a whole different world
of not being able to buy as much. Saylor can't buy the bottom, which means treasury company number
200 certainly can't buy the bottom. So if you can't grow your stack in the bear, well, when
the price goes up, sure, you're going to be able to raise capital, sell bonds, sell equity,
but it's going to be way harder. The more the price goes up, the harder it is for you to double
your stack. So does MSTR ever get back to an MNAV of two? Maybe not. MetaPlanet. MetaPlanet's got
30,000 coins. Can they really 6X their coins to get to an MNAV of six, which is where I think they
started to peak out? Maybe, but that's tough. So I think a lot of investors who bought it very
high premiums now that it's compressed, right? If you were to buy it an MNAV of one or even below
one, sure. Can it expand to three? Maybe. Can it expand to four? Maybe. Is it going to go back to
the previous MNAV of your original purchase? Maybe not. So I think a lot of people who bought the top
of these things will probably never get their money back. And if they do, they'll get to break
even and that'll probably be the next top. So that is the challenge with these MNAVs. Now,
when the MNAVs are one or below one, way, way more attractive, much more attractive. Once they're at
like high multiples, it's just very, very expensive. So I think that's the hard lesson a lot of people
are going to learn, I think. Last bull run, we had exchanges blow up. You saw FTX, Celsius,
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All right, enough from me.
Let's get back to the show.
Active much more attractive Once they at like high multiples it just very very expensive So I think that the hard lesson a lot of people are going to learn I think Yeah it very interesting seeing this market dynamic definitely play out And I think what
been interesting too is that we've had this like group think that, I mean, myself included,
I thought that October, November, we've always seen in a bull market Q4 of like this timing of
the four-year cycle be absolutely crazy.
And this time it's been the complete opposite.
Obviously, we had the red October and we're crashing and burning here now.
Well, October was actually a positive month and November is a terrible month.
Okay.
Yeah.
Well, yeah.
I mean, normally it's...
Sorry.
No, I take that back.
September.
September was...
Sorry.
Historically, September is always a red month.
We had a positive month.
October, November are usually good months.
We've had red months.
Yeah.
And I mean, of course, we're recording this, what, it's the 17th or 18th here in November.
So still got some time, obviously, a lot can change.
But how do you see this playing out basically through the rest of the year?
Because if we're in this bear cycle that you're describing here, it seems like we're basically
going to chop or potentially go downwards here through the rest of the year.
Is that correct?
I mean, there is absolutely no reason and there never has been for Bitcoin to follow a four-year cycle.
Never.
There's never been one.
So, you know, people look at this and they go, oh, but we've topped around this zone, so therefore October has to be the top or whenever it was.
You know, seasonality this year, almost every month has been the polar opposite of what people expected.
This cycle, this market, whatever it is, I am very much of the view and have been for some time.
You have to be flexible in your thinking.
You cannot get a sign to say it must be a four-year cycle or it must be in October.
I've been writing for a lot of my subscribers basically saying, you know, the thing that
concerns me as an analyst and the thing I've been hyper aware of and the reason why I wrote
that piece on the cusp on like the 16th of October, the reason I wrote that piece is
not because I was afraid of a blow-off top.
Blow-off tops, honestly, are much easier to spot.
You don't know when they actually peak, but they're very easy to spot.
what concerned me is a bull just dying of old age, just rolling over and having no like clear
euphoric peak. I think we can all agree that's probably what we've seen. So that's why I was
like hyper aware, but I'm not going to anchor myself to Uptobers and four year cycles and all
this stuff. I'm just going to read what I think is going on in the space. Show me the sell side,
show me the demand side, show me when treasury companies, and I've been saying this for a long
time. When the preferreds go below $100, bear market signal. And what happened? They went below
in October, bear market signal. We started getting three out of four, only Strife was the only one
that stayed above. These are all just like packets of information that says, sailor can't buy more
coins. The ETFs are starting to slow down. We've got more and more sell side coming from old hands.
As the price goes lower, more of those old hands start coming back to life. And then once we get
down to 95k everyone's like oh shit ogs are selling it's like yes ogs are selling like people
have been selling for months in ramping up billions and billions of dollars so you know this is what i
love about bitcoin data it's all public it's all there and no one is looking at it no one has a clue
that all this stuff is there to just be like well i can see a lot of selling i'll make decisions
accordingly prepare for downside well the the whales have been selling uh it seems like every
every cycle uh at least like near the top that's what everybody's always kind of pointed at um have
they been selling more so in this cycle than than any of the previous oh and and with with no equal
with no equal the amount of sales i would seen just in 2025 just this year would have killed
every previous bull four or five times over so what i actually think is the most remarkable thing
is the fact that we aren't lower sooner so there has been a tremendous amount and this is what i
think hodlers need to take away from this all this sounds scary and horrible and nasty we have been
seeing tens of billions of dollars a week getting absorbed by someone up in that 90k 95 100k zone
just endless selling and yet the market didn't go to 75 it didn't go to 60 the last time we saw
80 000 bitcoin get sold we saw that in july some whale sold 80 000 coins at 100 and i think it was
like 110k market went down three and a half percent went straight back up the last time we
saw that was when luna sold 80 000 coins and we went from 45k down to 17 so it's a very very
different market and a much cheaper price so the demand this is the thing who on earth is buying
tens of billions of dollars a week and just like absorbing it like a champion they don't care that
the market's gone lower. The folks who have bought those coins are forever allocators and they've got
deep, deep pockets. So I think for the hodlers in the audience, this is why I'm turning on my DCA
because my conviction of where this ends up, like 2026, 2027, moving forward, Bitcoin is going to be
just so much higher. So I am absolutely a buyer down at these prices. We've seen what I've been
calling the great rotation, the old money, call them whales, call them OGs, call them people who
bought the FTX bottom, doesn't matter. People who've got enough of a stack, any Bitcoiner who's
been around for two or three cycles has had this thought, I could really change my life with this
kind of money. I don't want to do it yet because I know Bitcoin's going to keep going, but I could
really change my life. We've seen a big rotation from those guys to some new pool of very, very,
very big buyers. They're forever allocators. I don't know if they're sovereigns. I don't know
of their companies. The amazing thing is they're not coming through the ETFs. This is coming through
like spot. This is actually like spot buying. And that's what makes this so interesting because you
would expect, oh, it's an institution that is buying via the ETFs. No. Whoever is buying this
is buying spot corn because we're not seeing the ETF inflows, commensurate, not even close
to the scale of the selling. So I look at that picture and I love that it's a bit of a mystery.
I'm dissatisfied. I don't have a good answer for it. All I know is that there has been absorption
in the spot market that most Bitcoiners just simply don't understand.
I hope one day we find out, maybe in like 12 months, 24 months,
we find out who these buyers are.
But someone with a very, very deep pocket has taken a lot of coin
off the market.
We probably won't see those again.
So it's kind of an interesting concept.
Do you think it's like big enough pockets for it to be some sort
of government or do you think it's like an official?
Yeah.
No, it has to be a government or banks or it's some entity
who is large.
and when i say entity it's not gonna be just one big monster it's going to be many of these things
but the like the scale of the selling like we were saying billions of dollars a day several billion
dollars a day retail doesn't have that kind of money like it's just not individuals um so we are
seeing big big entities starting to accumulate and when you look at the uh the on-chain volume
75 percent of all transactions are moving a million dollars plus all-time high for that metric 75
percent of all on-chain transactions. By the way, the mempool is empty. So no one's actually
transacting on-chain, but the ones that are, are a million dollars plus. That is where the
dominance of this market is. This is what I love about the data. No one is looking at this stuff,
but it's amazing. And it tells you a story that like, just hold the phone because I think the
market's in a very interesting spot because the buyers are very, very different.
Yeah. So the big players are here, essentially.
undeniably so oh my god all right well here we go so i mean i guess that's going to make for
some interesting market dynamics here coming forward in in 26 whether they actually come
out or not uh i i guess is kind of just beside the point because we've had eric trump go out on
plenty of interviews saying you know the saudis and some of these other countries are buying
bitcoin or they're mining bitcoin and they just don't want to be public about it so i wouldn't be
surprised if it is multiple governments at this point. And, you know, the Trumps have been kind of
hinting at that. So I think that's going to be very interesting. Now, one of my absolute favorite
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So I wouldn't be surprised if it is multiple governments at this point. And, you know,
the Trumps have been kind of hinting at that. So I think that's going to be very interesting. Now,
coming into 26, um, you know, I, I guess, how do you see that year playing out? Because I mean,
I know you say, uh, the four year cycle, there's been no reasoning. A lot of people have been
equating that to the having cycles. Um, do you equate like, uh, you know, I guess a big difference
for, you know, the potential of the having in 28, uh, or is, uh, you know, these years just
all gonna change. Cause I mean, of course there was the me and what it was like green, green,
red green um and it doesn't who knows if we actually get to that uh meme this year it doesn't
seem likely so um you know how do you see next year playing out uh with all that being said
yeah so i was just doing a quick calc here um 450 coins a day times 100 000 a coin is 0.045 billion
so every day 0.045 billion is being sold what we call long-term holders coins that have held for
at least six months. And the reason why we like six months is that most coins that transact each day,
they were spent yesterday. They were spent a week ago. They were fairly young.
No one really cares that a coin, like imagine a trader. They bought today, they sold yesterday.
They sold yesterday, they bought today. Like no one actually cares. They're kind of neutral because
they're just chopping around in the range. Once you've held your coin for six months, you've got
some opportunity costs. You could have been invested in NVIDIA, but you chose to be invested
in Bitcoin. So that's six months. So miners, 0.045 billion. The long-term holder has been
selling $3 billion a day, like not even close to the same. So the halving has not been relevant for
a very, very long time. It's the existing holder selling that's been the real dominant factor in my
view. So look, I don't know how 26 and 27 play out, but from a macro perspective, if you just
kind of think about this from like an incentive structure the u.s government's got to get re-elected
the markets are going to be going up for that to happen because otherwise they're going to be in
trouble if they aren't having a good time and the markets are falling down and people are sad and
people are depressed and people start getting fired what are they going to do like they're
going to have to lean like the also the banks if the market falls down the banks start getting
wrecked they got to make the phone call whether it's j pal or whoever follows j pal at some point
the liquidity bazooka comes on. And when I look at the market structure as it stands today,
I didn't know there was going to be tariffs. I didn't know there was going to be Trump. I didn't
know there was going to be China trade wars and all this stuff. When I started buying Bitcoin in
2019, I was buying it as insurance because the fiat system is in serious trouble. And I'm looking
around me going, it looks like the fiat system's in serious trouble and there's kerosene everywhere
and there's a bunch of guys smoking over there. I'm like, this thing's going to go up. So I'm like,
what am I going to do? Sell my insurance now because some dude thinks there's a four-year cycle.
Some dude's unhappy that October, November of 2025 were a bad year. A bunch of Bitcoiners are
salty because gold had a good three-month period. I just see a lot of emotions and people getting
caught up in the near term where their expectations, they anchored so heavily and say,
this must happen. And then when the opposite happened, they were like, Bitcoin sucks. It's
like, no, your expectations were mismanaged. You didn't actually look at what was going on under
the hood and you just assumed this narrative was written in stone and must play out. Red, red,
green, green, green, red. At the end of the day, if we have a bear market right now and we bought
them at 85 and we go down 35%, that's going to break everybody's head because no one's going to
call it a bear market. Everyone's going to start calling it a correction or a bull market event.
Like you've got to be super flexible.
You've got to think forward and just go like at some point,
the fiat system, the insurance that Bitcoin is on it, it's in trouble.
I'm not selling my insurance here.
I'm buying more insurance because like when you look around you,
I mean, come on, guys, the train's going in one direction.
Yeah, nothing stops this train, right, as Len Alden always says.
So, I mean, it definitely seems like it's inevitable,
But you know you brought up the Fed and like the current kind of market dynamics which I think are very interesting right now because we have Trump who essentially just you know yelling at Jerome Powell publicly every chance he gets to cut interest rates to zero And we got Jerome Powell
who's actually, I mean, if you look at like some of these prediction markets, it's like
basically a 50-50 shot whether or not he's going to cut in December. And, you know, it seems like
the market's already priced in three cuts for this year. So, you know, with all this being said
and the current macro environment pal being out in the future,
is it just like kind of, I guess, inevitable that the print is going to be coming,
but it's just a matter of when?
Or do you think, you know, maybe they'll get some Fed guy that has his head on straight
for a little bit and tries to, you know, combat this inflationary pressures that we're seeing
in the US.
So it's not going to be as clear cut as the asset bubble that people even like myself
have been calling for for years.
Yeah, yeah.
No, it is a very, very complex market structure.
It is never going to be so binary.
I think it's amazing watching Bitcoin has become gold bugs by just like looking at the
next Fed rate cut.
I mean, like, what are we, 90 years old?
Like, come on, who cares about Fed rate cut?
Like, Len does a great job of exploring this.
Fed rate cuts matter when it's private lending that's causing all the, it's not, it's fiscal,
it's the government.
So it's just a different transmission mechanism.
So I don't think rate cuts really matter.
I think a lot of people love to look at rate cuts as like a reasoning for why things happen.
Sure, there's going to be cycles and there's going to be pivot points to these things,
but I don't think 25, like 25 bips, who cares?
Does it change anything?
Probably not.
What really matters is they're going to start tapering off QT come December.
That is just all things being equal, less liquidity getting sucked out of the market.
That is a net change.
I think there's a high probability that they have to go back to balance sheet expansion
because they just don't have the buyers for the bonds.
The other thing, stablecoins,
what was the first bill that this administration put through?
The Genius Act.
Why on earth did they do that?
Because it's all about we need buyers for treasury bills.
So what we're about to see is stablecoins proliferate
and that creates demand for short-term government, US paper.
The third world is going to buy stablecoins like crazy
because the lira sucks, the Bolivar sucks.
They're going to go and buy Tether and all these other stable coins.
And in that process, short-term funding for the US government, which is effectively creating
more and more collateral because those short-term bills have very little volatility risk because
of inflation, because every month they roll over to a new bill.
In that instance, that's just great collateral, which the system is going to use to lever up.
So in my view, and also if they do lower rates on those short-term bills, as they lower rates
on short-term bills, people are going to say, well, I'm not getting any return from this 3%
government paper or this 2.5% government paper. I've got to go and buy assets instead. I've got
to get out on the risk curve because the yield simply isn't high enough to keep me there. So
I think there's all of these transmission mechanisms. I think that there is probably
going to be an inflection back to the upside on a lot of these types of metrics. It just takes time.
Macro moves at a glacial pace and then sometimes things just click in a gear and then away it goes.
yeah so then what would you see the potential of bitcoin just kind of following the same path as
traditional equities or like you know there's risk on assets that it has been or do you see
the potential of a decoupling here uh in an event like this yeah i'm at the view that bitcoin has
been walking to the beat of someone else's drum for a little while now i think there's gonna become
a point in time and the same way that all the bitcoiners were like oh it sucks that gold's
going up bitcoin's shit it's like that's going to happen in gold bugs peter schiff is going to have
the worst week of his life when bitcoin just blasts through the all-time high gold's gonna
be going sideways and bitcoin's just going to be absolutely mooning i'm very confident that bitcoin's
just going to find its own beat i'm at the view that below 95 whilst i still think it can go lower
i believe bitcoin is undervalued i already think we're undervalued compared to where we deserve to
be so from that perspective from a fundamental standpoint i'm a very happy buyer because i think
once this thing starts moving, I think it's going to move really quite hard and leave a lot of
people. A lot of people who will see you in three years. It's like, yeah, it'll be a bit higher by
the time you start stepping back in. Now, you mentioned the stable coins and a lot of the
collateral by buying these short-term treasury bonds and things like that. Would that just make
the general market structure just extremely more volatile in a sense? I think so. It's creating
more collateral for banks and hedge funds and whatnot to lever up on because of all the,
in inverted commas, pristine collaterals, a US government bond that renews every three months
or every month is the best because there's no duration risk whatsoever.
So in that instance, it's the perfect collateral. And Luke Groman talks about this,
there's cash and then there's cash-like and treasury bills are cash-like. It's printing
money it's like it's close to you can get to printing money without kind of doing it outright
with the xerox so i think it's it you know it to me it's just going to add so much liquidity to the
system and stable coins don't care about duration they need those short-term bills that's their
preferred instrument because they have to be demand deposits someone wants to redeem they've got to be
able to duration miss uh duration match they need to kind of have everything in short-term paper they
can't be going too far out in the curve no one wants to take duration risk now will this mean uh
that I guess the banks, even like JP Morgan and all these others are going to, you think,
start to create this stable coin? Is that going to kind of open the floodgates in that sense?
I think so. And I think there's going to be, I mean, there'll be a lot of developments on that
front. I mean, all the banks are going to be working on it because they have to. They wouldn't
be fighting and trying to get the Genius Act modified because of the interest payments. And
there's different ways that firms are finding a way around that. So there's a whole lot of
dynamics there that I think the banks are all going to get involved in it. We'll see new payment
systems. From my perspective, I think the stablecoin story is most interesting outside the US because
people in the US, you literally have dollars. It's actually kind of hard for Australians to get
dollars. You can use a wise bank account, but that's kind of it. There's not that many ways
to get easy access to dollars. If you're in Turkey, it's really hard to get dollars, but they want
them. So a stable coin is absolutely perfect. And this is why we're seeing tether. It's like
organically just become money. It's actually become money in a lot of these developing economies.
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Back to the show. Perfect. This is why we're seeing Tether. It's like organically just become
money. It's actually become money in a lot of these developing economies. And that's just demand
for US bills. Yeah. I mean, like Tether's business model is absolutely insane. I mean,
I think they're the most profitable company and they've got like, I don't know, like eight employees or something so tiny.
So, I mean, it has been genius and it has been, you know, a company that's absolutely thriving in this landscape.
But, you know, what kind of role then does Bitcoin play in all this?
Do you think that it's starting to be, I guess, looked at as the potential of, you know, the digital gold, so to speak, that store of value, even with the short term volatility that we're seeing?
or is there some other way that governments are going to start to use it?
Because I think it's interesting that you're saying that we're seeing a big, giant player kind of coming in,
but they're being hush-hush about it.
We don't really know who it is right now, and it could be other governments.
It could be giant banks, and there's fun-to-play-the-game-theory aspect on it.
But how do you think that this dynamic would cause, I guess,
some of these governments to look at Bitcoin comparatively to the way that stablecoins are
being pushed so heavily? Yeah. So I think we can think about this from an incentive structure,
I think they're different, but similar for individuals, companies, and governments.
First things first, I think that there's a very clear separation between the global reserve
asset savings and global reserve currency, which is medium of exchange, unit of account.
the dollar will continue in my opinion to be the global reserve currency it will be the dominant
thing used for trade and there's no there's no best second banana for this particular thing you
can't you like the euro good luck with that like what do you get what's next the yen the yuan like
there's not really a competitor so in a way bitcoin kind of has a potential to be used in that realm
but I don't believe that Bitcoin is designed for small payments.
It's going to be designed for the big scale stuff.
Could you imagine a world where the Saudis want to transact oil with,
I don't know, choose your other country?
You could settle in gold with an armored van and a plane
and an armored detail and $6 million worth of costs.
You could also send a Bitcoin transaction.
So from that perspective, Bitcoin,
I think gold is certainly being reintroduced as the savings asset,
global reserve asset, because as a sovereign,
Bitcoin's cool and all, but it's $2 trillion.
Gold, $30 trillion.
Big history.
It makes more sense.
So if you imagine that you're a sovereign nation,
you've got vaults full of gold over the course of, let's say,
six months, 12 months, you're trading with this country,
you've got their goods, you've got their currency,
and eventually they're like, I've got a surplus.
What do I do with that?
I would like to settle that in gold.
This is what China's been doing with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
You trade in Yuan.
You buy all the stuff you want in Yuan.
I've got a bunch of Yuan left over.
I'm going to buy gold.
Thank you very much.
Final settlement.
Again, armored cars, planes, it's great.
Once you've got the gold bars on your soil, that's final, final settlement.
But also, what happens if we've got $3 billion that we need to settle?
Hey, we could do a Bitcoin transaction for that.
Bang.
It's like a liquid layer that sits on top of the goal.
And they do that once or twice.
They test it out.
Well, that's kind of interesting.
That works.
Maybe we should actually have some Bitcoin in our reserve.
And this could be a corporate, could be an individual, could be a sovereign.
This same logic applies to everyone.
At some point, like for me, we're a business.
We accept Bitcoin, right?
It's not the dominant majority of our sales because most people like to spend their fiat
paper.
But it's a handful of people who want to spend their Bitcoin.
And we will gladly accept it.
And we hang on to it.
So it's kind of like a liquid layer that sits in our reserve mix.
So I think this whole framework of like we all transact in fiat because it's the shit money and we all save in the hard money.
I mean, it's kind of hard to settle.
Let's say you and I wanted to do some kind of sponsorship deal of some form.
It's kind of a pain in the ass for you to send me a gold coin over the postal mail.
It's kind of a shit go.
You could send me a Bitcoin transaction straight away.
This is the way to think about it.
We're talking about what is the right tool for the right job.
For us as a business, having gold is a really bad idea
because I just literally don't want to have gold bars in my house.
It's a terrible idea.
However, with Bitcoin, there's obviously the custody thing
where you can do multi-seed.
You can just move the keys around.
So it's just impossible to steal.
Awesome.
Great treasury asset.
Perfect for that purpose.
So right tool, right job, savings asset,
and global reserve currency.
two separate things. Bitcoin kind of competes on both fronts. Gold really struggles on some of
those elements, even though it's going to have a very important role. So I really do think about
the dollar, Bitcoin and gold as being this trifecta of like those three kind of solve
the problem of money together as a combined unit. They're going to compete. Sometimes one's going to
do better. Sometimes one's going to do worse. But as a collective, that is what I think the world is
going to trend towards just as like where I think the world is going. May not be the world we want,
but I think that's what happens.
So, yeah, with that then,
so the dollar kind of just remains as the currency
just because of all the things you're lining up.
Network effects.
Totally.
If you look at Tether and the Genius Act,
the perfect example, the Genius Act is not a stablecoin bill.
It is a dollar dominance bill.
Alex Thorne brought up that line.
I think it's perfect.
It's a dollar dominance bill.
The reason why people in Turkey use the US dollar via Tether
is because the US dollar has the network effect.
The Turkish government hates it that their citizens
are using someone else's currency.
They chose it because it's the best one for them.
They don't want Bitcoin because they can't do the volatility, but the dollar solves their problem.
So this is the dollar dollarizing the world, whether the foreign governments want it or not.
It's just going to hollow out their economies from the inside out.
And that's going to fund the US to continue to fund their deficit.
So it's perfectly imperial.
If you look at the stablecoin setup, the poorest people in the world are going to fund the debts of the richest people in the world.
It's very, very imperialistic.
It makes all the sense in the world.
Wow.
That actually honestly blew my mind.
I didn't even really think of it that way.
So that's absolutely crazy.
This is why it was the first bill the administration passed.
They didn't dick around with anything else.
They went straight for stable coins, not because it's a stable coin bill, not because they care about crypto, not because they care about Bitcoin.
Dollar dominance.
Yeah.
And I mean, it makes all the sense in the world.
And I mean, I've always thought it's been interesting the way that Trump has talked about Bitcoin over time.
At first, he said, you know, he didn't really like it because he honestly admitted that he's like because it, you know, attacks the dollar dominance.
And he's, you know, an America first kind of president.
And then he kind of was like, oh, you know, I hear a lot of people maybe buying some coffee, doing some other things.
And then now he's like, oh, I like Bitcoin and crypto.
And it's been an interesting little, I guess, flip where, you know, you know, we saw the Bitcoin conference last year in Vegas, or I guess earlier this year in Vegas.
And it was basically the stablecoin conference in a sense where every single governmental person that got on stage was just stablecoin, stablecoin, stablecoin.
And I guess it makes a lot of sense especially you know with everything you lining out here I just never really put it all together I was trying to figure it out I thought maybe it was a backdoor CBDC but it didn seem
You want to dollarize the third world.
It's brilliant.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean-
And the third world wants to do it too.
So they're working for the government.
It's amazing, amazing to watch.
And this is the Hunger Games of money, right?
The Hunger Games of money is the dollar is in the process
of consuming every other fiat currency.
The Aussie dollar is going to fall a lot later than the Turkish lira.
Turkish lira is going to go first.
How does the Turkish government deal with the fact that their citizens are going to opt out of the lira into the dollar?
And I've been saying this line for a long time, and I think it's a really good mental model.
The quantum leap between the lira, which devalues 50% on every second Tuesday, and the US dollar, that gap between the soundness, the US dollar is still a shit coin.
But the lira is really bad, too.
The quantum leap between the lira and the dollar is the dollar to Bitcoin.
So what we're watching with Turkey over the long arc of time is what's going to happen.
The dollar is going to consume everything and get stronger and stay stronger.
But eventually the dollar is going to have, it's riddled with tumors as well.
And eventually the dollar is going to come to the same point that the lira is at.
And it's going to look at gold and Bitcoin.
Everyone's going to go, I'm out.
Right?
It's going to take a long time, but it depends where you live.
Ah okay Yeah I mean hey I don doubt that at all I think that that basically where we going to get to a hyper Bitcoinized world I don know if we ever see that day I don know checkmate You looking You got a lot better sun in Australia maybe than I do out here But you know with that then I need you to tell me kind of what you see playing out with this next let call it 12 to 18 months I want you to put your you know your maybe your tinfoil hat a little bit with your crystal ball here
Try to predict a little bit of the future.
How do you see this next 12 to 18 months playing out?
Yeah.
So if I was to just have a shot at what I think the next, let's say, 12 months looks like,
I would wager that we probably have more downside across all markets over the next like three months
or so. We will probably hammer out a bottom, as I said, above the 2024 chop solidation range.
I'm a very happy buyer below 95, 85, 82, 80 is kind of where I think a zone of interest,
ETF cost basis and all that. I don't know what kind of bottom it will be, whether it's going to
be like a really sharp V shape or just we've got to hammer it out for a period of time.
but I think we bottom out in a period of months, not years.
So I don't think the concept of like a one year bear market is going to play
out. I think all markets take a hit.
I think they will then reverse very quickly to balance sheet expansion.
I think 2026 is actually going to be kind of crazy.
I think everything's going to move when that happens.
That would be my general base case. So I mean,
I believe Bitcoin is undervalued right now.
I'm a very happy buyer of it. If you're going to give me cheaper prices,
I'm going to take them.
And then I'm going to sit there and just ride this thing higher.
the big risk is that we we sell off we come higher and then we set a macro higher lower high which i
think is probably pretty likely given the scale of this sell-off once we get that you're then going
to have this another big scary ass waterfall just argument's sake we go down to 85 we bounce back to
100 or 105 everyone gets super excited oh the ball back lower high comes right back down maybe it takes 75 maybe it gets down to like 95 or 90 You get this big waterfall that just freaks everyone out
and they go, holy shit, it's over.
That is my deal.
Thank you very much.
I'm going to step in right there because that's the kind of thing
where suddenly you've got a Dalai Lama candle over the course
of six months and you're back at all-time highs.
So my base case is a constructive 2026.
I think we hammer out some kind of a floor in the next six months
and I think a lot of people are going to get taken by surprise.
There'll be a lot of people who sold now thinking,
oh, shit, the four-year cycle's come to bear
and I'll see you in 2027, 2028.
And yeah, they're going to miss the ride.
So a lot of volatility to say the very least, huh?
About time.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, Checkmate, you're an absolute G.
You blew my mind today with this whole stablecoin thing,
so I really appreciate you for that and coming in.
Good, game theory.
Yeah, and sharing all your analysis.
So why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and your great analysis?
Because, hey, man, you're blowing my mind.
I'm sure you're going to be blowing the people that are watching here today, too.
Thanks, mate.
Yeah, you can find us over at checkonchain.com.
We've got the newsletter, which is paid, but where I share all my thoughts and as I develop these ideas.
And then the charting website, which we've got, which, I mean, pretty much every Bitcoin chart you could possibly want.
It's all free.
So you'll find us over at checkonchain.com.
All right.
And I'll put all that in the show notes.
Check, matey.
Appreciate you, brother.
Thanks, man.
Cheers.