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Bitcoin, in my view, has been signalling there's something wrong in the global market for months, months now.

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And everyone was like, oh, Bitcoin's just having a week.

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I'm like, no, dude, Bitcoin's telling you that your equity market is in trouble.

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And I think a lot of people are going to get taken by surprise.

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There'll be a lot of people who sold now.

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And yeah, they're going to miss the road.

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2026, 2027, moving forward, I think 2026 is actually going to be kind of crazy.

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And this is what I think toddlers need to take away from this.

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We have been seeing tens of billions of dollars a week getting absorbed by someone.

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Endless selling up in that 90k, 95k, 100k zone.

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And yet the market didn't go to 75k.

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It didn't go to 60k.

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The demand.

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This is the thing.

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Who on earth is buying tens of billions of dollars a week and just like absorbing it like a champion?

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They don't care if the market's gone wrong.

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The folks who have bought those coins are forever allocators.

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And they've got deep, deep pockets.

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So I think for the others in the audience,

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this is why I'm turning on my DCM.

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Because my conviction of where this ends up,

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like 2026, 2027, moving forward,

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Bitcoin is going to be just so much higher.

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So I am absolutely a buyer down at these prices.

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What's up, guys?

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70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month,

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but 71% are not subscribed.

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So you're going to miss out on some of the great green candle content.

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So make sure that you're hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get notified every time I drop a video.

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All right, now let's get back into this great interview.

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Bing bong.

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I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, James Check or Checkmatey here back in the house.

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I had to get him on because Bitcoin is crashing and burning.

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It's game over, man.

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We're at 92K at the time of this recording.

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but you previously had a nice little, I guess, snippet from another podcast that I was listening

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to about this 95K barrier. We're beneath that now, Chuck Matey. So I got to ask you,

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is the bull run over or what's going on with this current price action?

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Yes. So the way to think about the market as it stands today, there was a piece that I released

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on the 16th of October. So we had that big deal averaging on the 10th.

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that's the second all-time high the first one was 124k which i believe was in august

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after the august sell-off i was trying to understand have we topped and i developed

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this concept called the hodler's wall and the hodler's wall if you can envision a chart where

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it's basically the supply show me all the bitcoin supply x-axis is price we had a lot of supply up

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above 90k 95 was really what i called the base of the wall long-term holders were there short-term

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holders were there at the time it was like 53 55 of all the wealth that's ever been invested in

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this is in august was in that zone now i started writing about that because i was concerned that

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that first 124 peak we came off it so savagely i was like it doesn't feel right anyway the idea is

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i started to continue right piece saying guys the hodler's wall seems to have held because we went

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back to 126. And then we had that 10th of October deleveraging. And on the 16th of October, I wrote

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a piece called On the Cusp. And it would have probably been around this time that I was on that

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pod. I think you're talking about the one with Marty on TFTC. And On the Cusp is where Check the

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Bear, who hasn't been out all cycle, Check the Bear showed up. So this is six days after that

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deleveraging. I said, guys, I've just sold my MSTR position. And let me tell you something,

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the amount of people who told me i was a limp dick um softy for selling my mstr how you feeling now

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um i had to get out because i was like something feels wrong right check the bear i wasn't ready

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to call bear market but what i did say is guys we're no longer at 50 of all the wealth up here

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we're now at 65 so i think it was about 60 and now we're at 65 of all the wealth that's ever

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been invested if you price every utxo when it last moved on chain 65 of it is above 95k and i started

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talking about that level and saying, look, that's the bull's last stand. Now there's levels that we

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have to go down below there before we get to 95, obviously. On the cusp was written about 113,

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115. I was saying, look, we're below the first line of defense, but we're hanging in there.

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And then we got down to the second line of defense, which was 100k. So guys are starting

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to get a bit hairy, start thinking about a bear market. Then we got to 95. And that piece was

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called the bull's last stand because we've been talking about this for months. It's just a really

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key level in the piece I wrote recently called The Bull's Last Stand.

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This is what makes this market structure so interesting.

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The amount of sell side that we've seen in the last three months, people have finally

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started talking about OG selling.

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Get rid of the OG.

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There's just been selling.

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Lots and lots of spot selling.

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Shitloads of it.

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Tens of billions of dollars, billions of dollars a day.

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People have finally worked out that that was going on.

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And honestly, it was quite remarkable that we went sideways through most of that.

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However, we're also depositing more and more and more coins at these higher cost bases.

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And the challenge is that right now, there's a lot of people who are now underwater on their

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position.

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So this is starting to enter the world that I call top heavy.

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Top heavy means you have too many people who bought too many coins at too high of a price.

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It is the market structure that creates bears of the past.

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Now, this particular structure is unique in all.

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if we're going to call it a bear market, it is already unique because it still looks like a dip.

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This is the crazy thing about this particular market structure. I think bear market thinking

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is the correct way to analyze this market now because of the sentiment angle. However,

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we are already starting to form, I don't believe we bottom here at 90. I think we have further to go.

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However, are we going down to 50?

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I think that's a bit much.

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I really think the AI bubble has to go to zero for us to go down to 50.

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I think something really bad has to happen.

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So we're in this very strange world where if we go down to the mid-85s,

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it's going to feel horrible.

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Mid-80Ks are going to be absolutely terrible, but that's a 35% dip.

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Is that a bear?

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Is everyone going to reset their cycle charts and say that was FTX level

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or that was COVID bottom level or that was end of 2018 or the bottom of 2015.

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Is that at 35%?

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Is that where everyone's going to go, oh, that was bear market floor?

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We don't know where this goes, mate, but I'll tell you what,

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bear market thinking right now is the right way to do it.

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Hope for the best, but certainly put yourself in a bear market perspective.

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But also, this bear is going to destroy so many analysts

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because they're going to try and use patterns of the past

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they're going to call down going down to like the realized price or getting down below some random

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moving average they've pulled out of nowhere and said it always goes below this this whatever this

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bearish thing is is going to completely break everyone's head because it's going to be very

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very different to what we've seen in the past um and you got it i've been saying this all cycle

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you have to be so flexible in how you want to analyze this cycle because it's different

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measurably different on so many fronts taking the old world and trying to apply it to the new world

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is just going to get you lost in the weeds.

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So is the bull market over then?

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Is that what you're telling me here?

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There's a great many signs.

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I mean, really, as we broke down below,

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again, that first line of defense still looks good,

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but also be cautious below 100K.

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Now we're going to be real cautious.

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Also dip zone.

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Like I bought plenty of coins in the 100K zone.

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By the time we got to 95,

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I also like, I think about this from two perspectives.

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Me as a Bitcoin investor, as a hodler,

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I love everything below 100K.

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Give it to me all day.

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I'm turning back on my DCA.

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I really turned it off for the most part above 100K

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just because I don't like buying late stage bulls.

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So I really haven't been accumulating that much

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in the last, let's say, almost 12 months.

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I've now turned back on my DCA.

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We're back below 100K.

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I'm very happy to keep stacking down here.

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Check the analyst.

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My job is to be very objective and say,

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guys, I don't think we're done yet.

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You know, we got down as low as 89.

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There was a lot of liquidations

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that happened on the way down there.

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I don't think we've hammered out the bottom yet.

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I don't think there's enough signs that we've hammered out the bottom yet.

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We've broken out of the channel we've been in since FTX blew up.

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There's just a lot of things that have switched over to bear market type structure.

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But again, this bear market is a one of one.

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It doesn't look like previous bears.

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I'm sorry, but you just don't have these kind of waterfall sell-offs in a bull market.

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There is something very, very different.

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Everyone knows it.

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Everyone can feel that this sell-off feels different to all of the previous corrections

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that we've had.

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The likelihood that we rally and then set a macro lower high and then roll back over

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is very, very high in my view.

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Okay, that's interesting.

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Is there like another floor, so to speak, that you see or another level?

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Because I mean, I know you were talking about the wealth being above 95K in the previous

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episode that we referenced a little bit earlier.

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Or do you see like another wall where, all right, you know, even though it's like 65%

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here, it increases to, I don't know, 85% or something like that.

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Maybe at like 70K or something.

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Yeah.

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But basically the 2024 chop solidation zone, that whole zone between like, let's just say

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60 and 70, it's kind of the bulk of it.

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That is like, I would be very, very surprised.

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We might bottom in that zone.

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I don't think we go down.

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Like anyone calling for 30K, good luck.

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Anyone calling for 40K, good luck.

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Like, can it happen?

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Yes.

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am I going to assign a 10% probability to it?

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No, I think it's a very slim chance.

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So I'm not too concerned about going below that zone.

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I think at a minimum, sorry, at the worst case,

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we bottom in that 2024 chop zone.

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But I actually think we probably get arrested higher than that.

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I would say somewhere in the 80s, maybe mid 80K,

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and we bottom there in the tariff tantrum.

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I can see it kind of selling off down to like 75 or 70

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and just getting everyone just out of their mind.

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And then you get a big hammer candle back up into the 80s.

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I think we hammer out a bottom somewhere in there. But I do think there's a lot of this being driven

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by macro as well. It's going to very much depend, like the equities market starts coming with us,

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you know, then things can really start to cascade. So I don't know, no one does. I would be amazed

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if we bottom below the 2024 zone. And I do think we probably get arrested higher up than that.

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Now, I know you're saying like this cycle is just completely different, just based on, you know,

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the market dynamics. And you kind of hinted at it, I believe, a little bit earlier about how we're

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going to just dip below and then potentially, you know, because there's so many, there's so much

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buying pressure still, that we could, you know, see another rise up here in the near future,

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like this isn't going to be a prolonged bear. At least I don't want to put words in your mouth.

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That's what it seems like, at least to me, from what you're saying. Is that right?

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I don't think that the people who are saying see you in four years,

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good luck with that.

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I think it's going to be a much, much shorter process.

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I think like all bear markets,

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it's going to be a lot more volatile and challenging.

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There'll be a lot of false starts.

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Hammering out a floor takes time and it takes pain.

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So I don't know when we get there and I don't know how we get there,

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but I don't believe we're going to be, you know, see you in 2027.

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We're still dicking around down here and we haven't made any progress.

201
00:11:31,340 --> 00:11:33,020
Like I don't think that's how it's going to go.

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in order to go lower i do think that there has to be more more and more cracks in like the equity

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market or something else and there's just a pain threshold where the powers that be need to come

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with a bazooka they just have to like they're gonna have to get re-elected they can't go with

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like the stock market falls down people start getting fired no one's happy already like you're

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gonna make them more unhappy like the unfortunate incentive structure of the fiat system is that

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there's really a very small pain threshold bitcoin in my view has been signaling that

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There's something wrong in the global market for months, months now.

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And everyone was like, oh, Bitcoin's just having a shitty week.

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I'm like, no, dude, Bitcoin's telling you that your equity market is in trouble, that

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your bond market is in trouble.

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Bitcoin has been sending the fire alarm signal saying, I know everyone's talking about M2

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and liquidity charts and like presenting their bias.

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Bitcoin is telling you that liquidity conditions are not good.

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That is like, you can have a thousand and one liquidity indexes.

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I look at Bitcoin and say that's the liquidity index right there and it's not so good.

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Okay. So then, yeah, what does this mean? What is it showing us for the overall equity markets?

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Is there about to be a big crash? Do you think that this is basically showing that there's

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a potential for a recession? Of course, if they open the floodgates and start printing money,

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that'll change. But is that kind of what it's signaling in your opinion?

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I think so.

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I mean, like, you know, I don't know how long this AI thing can go on for, but what I do

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know, like the facts and the reality of the world, they're spending trillions of dollars

224
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with a T, trillions of dollars on CapEx and OpEx, and they're making like tens of billions

225
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of dollars in revenue.

226
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The numbers don't math, right?

227
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So now there's a lot of reasons why these hyperscalers are doing it.

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There's government incentives that they want to do this.

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They want to win the AI race.

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This is all very real.

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There's also like Google has to protect their existing business because if

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everyone's going to chat GPT rather than paying Google for search, that's their

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business model in trouble. So a lot of this spending is like defensive as well.

234
00:13:35,340 --> 00:13:40,380
So there's a lot of different focus elements here. Everyone's looking at this

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thing going where the money Where the money There a lot of spending but where the money Like you not making money There no revenue here So the whole market has got itchy fingers They been riding this AI wave higher

236
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No money manager can not be on the AI wave because then the other guy is making money.

237
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So everyone's piling into this thing.

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So everyone's got itchy fingers being like, this is dumb and doesn't make sense.

239
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But I don't want to be the first guy to sell.

240
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I also don't want to be the last guy to sell, but I don't want to be the first guy.

241
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So everyone's just waiting for this moment.

242
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So I think some kind of a correction has been just so overdue, so overdue across all markets.

243
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And it feels to me like if there's a time for it to happen, this is probably it.

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But given the government incentives and the imperatives, it's going to get arrested.

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But sometimes you've got to go down to go up.

246
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And I really think that's the correct way to think about this.

247
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Is this, I guess, the lining out of a potential bubble then here?

248
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um i don't know if the bubble pops here because bubbles have corrections as well so i've kind of

249
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the view that everything has kind of been slowed down so we're watching this bubble but it's kind

250
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of just like creeping and drifting higher and then like you get a correction and then it just

251
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creates a slingshot for the next move i don't know if we've hit like the bubble the top like the

252
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actual top usually it gets ridiculous you know i mean nvidia got to five trillion we're already

253
00:15:05,119 --> 00:15:09,299
talking about some kind of stupid numbers here, you know, given that all their customers are

254
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financing each other with their own stock and their own money and now like debt's starting to

255
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creep in. Like there's a thousand and one things here, but you know, just as a market commentator

256
00:15:17,459 --> 00:15:22,899
and observer, I've seen these kind of moves enough time to be like, it's expensive at a minimum.

257
00:15:23,339 --> 00:15:28,499
These stocks are not cheap. So at some point there's going to be a re-rating. And the question

258
00:15:28,499 --> 00:15:32,399
is, I mean, ultimately what's the difference between a bear market and a correction? One

259
00:15:32,399 --> 00:15:37,999
doesn't re-rate higher, right? The difference between a bull and a bear market is that bulls

260
00:15:37,999 --> 00:15:41,899
have corrections, but they get bought the dip and then next thing you know, you're back to all-time

261
00:15:41,899 --> 00:15:48,799
high. Bears, they're a process. They take a lot longer to belt out a floor and like actually find

262
00:15:48,799 --> 00:15:54,299
demand. Things are going to re-rate lower sometimes and then the fundamentals have to kind of catch up.

263
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trusted, proven. They take a lot longer to belt out a floor and like actually find demand. Things

275
00:17:10,339 --> 00:17:14,739
are going to re-rate lower sometimes. And then the fundamentals have to kind of catch up.

276
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Okay. And then, you know, you said you sold the MSTR not too long ago. And I think that is kind

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00:17:23,999 --> 00:17:28,699
of interesting. Obviously, it was great timing because the MNAV now is beneath one. I believe

278
00:17:28,699 --> 00:17:33,399
in that same podcast, you were talking about how all these treasury companies were buying. And,

279
00:17:33,819 --> 00:17:38,839
you know, you think that basically all of these treasury companies, their MNAVs or their premiums

280
00:17:38,839 --> 00:17:43,959
are just all going to go to one or maybe even less. So what does this, you know, bear market

281
00:17:43,959 --> 00:17:49,919
mean for all of these treasury companies? And is this going to be like, I guess, a potential

282
00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:55,479
catalyst to have a few of these start to blow up? Because we've all had them all come online

283
00:17:55,479 --> 00:18:03,319
basically in the past six to 12 months or so. So all of these, I think at the time of Trump

284
00:18:03,319 --> 00:18:12,879
getting elected, there were 64. Now there's 208. So the other 140 companies that have come on in

285
00:18:12,879 --> 00:18:17,499
this past year have basically just seen a bull market and haven't seen Bitcoin at this low.

286
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:24,839
So is this going to shake a lot of those out potentially? And with that, what are some of

287
00:18:24,839 --> 00:18:31,719
the potential, I guess, effects you can foresee with that? Yeah. Look, the treasury company trend,

288
00:18:31,719 --> 00:18:38,499
if there's one area of this market that I've been vocal on and received immense amount of

289
00:18:38,499 --> 00:18:44,059
push back on. It was this. And my claim was, and I started talking about this back in November of

290
00:18:44,059 --> 00:18:48,219
last year when MSTR is hitting all-time highs and the guys, MNAVs are these things going to compress

291
00:18:48,219 --> 00:18:52,339
to one. And the further out in the risk curve you are, the more savage your bear market's going to

292
00:18:52,339 --> 00:18:56,379
be. What I didn't realize is the bull market was going to be savage to them as well. Most of these

293
00:18:56,379 --> 00:19:03,179
things were down 50, 60, some 90% in the bull as Bitcoin hit all-time highs. The bear is going to

294
00:19:03,179 --> 00:19:11,459
be absolutely brutal to these things i'm sorry and and you can take your favorite ignore mstr

295
00:19:11,459 --> 00:19:16,679
take your favorite treasury company and divide it by fart coin or some other shit coin

296
00:19:16,679 --> 00:19:23,879
the treasury company got so much more wrecked than even alts did it's brutal so like it this is just

297
00:19:23,879 --> 00:19:29,859
a fact on the ground this is how this market has played out there i for a very long time in fact my

298
00:19:29,859 --> 00:19:33,039
My position has been very firm for a long time that MSTR is in a different world.

299
00:19:33,659 --> 00:19:35,439
Everything else is not MSTR.

300
00:19:35,679 --> 00:19:40,419
The difference between 640,000 Bitcoin and 5,000 Bitcoin is approximately 640,000 Bitcoin.

301
00:19:40,979 --> 00:19:42,979
There is just no comparison here.

302
00:19:43,439 --> 00:19:44,719
Bitcoin goes to a million dollars.

303
00:19:44,859 --> 00:19:46,479
Your 5,000 Bitcoin is worth 5 billion.

304
00:19:46,739 --> 00:19:46,939
Great.

305
00:19:47,019 --> 00:19:49,399
You're not changing anything in the world with a $5 billion market cap.

306
00:19:49,459 --> 00:19:49,939
It's just not happening.

307
00:19:50,459 --> 00:19:55,799
So I think that the treasury company complex, the hype was massive.

308
00:19:55,799 --> 00:19:58,819
The amount of actually buying that occurred was nowhere near the hype.

309
00:19:58,819 --> 00:20:04,299
nowhere near the hype the etfs have consistently been much much larger in terms of the demand side

310
00:20:04,299 --> 00:20:07,999
than the treasury companies and a lot of these treasury companies didn't actually buy any bitcoin

311
00:20:07,999 --> 00:20:12,879
anyway if you actually spend five minutes going through bitcoin treasuries.net which is a great

312
00:20:12,879 --> 00:20:18,139
site you'll find how many of these treasury companies have like one big slug where they

313
00:20:18,139 --> 00:20:24,759
bought like 5 000 coins 2 000 coins and that's it it's basically an insider pipe deal and then all

314
00:20:24,759 --> 00:20:28,599
these investors came in and bought their stock at the high they never actually bought any bitcoin

315
00:20:28,599 --> 00:20:29,839
They never minusized the premium.

316
00:20:30,459 --> 00:20:34,619
We saw some of them even selling their Bitcoin now because they are too levered.

317
00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:37,279
Like, bro, how did you get too levered?

318
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:42,519
Like, this is not hard to work out that the market was not cheap at 126.

319
00:20:42,679 --> 00:20:46,839
Like, sure, a lot of people thought that we were going to go higher, myself included.

320
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:52,519
But by the time we got back down to 115, 110, it's like, you know, I think on Marty's podcast,

321
00:20:52,739 --> 00:20:55,779
guys, if we go below 110, you really got to start questioning this bull thesis.

322
00:20:56,199 --> 00:20:57,779
And some of these companies are levering up.

323
00:20:57,779 --> 00:21:00,779
It's like, I'm sorry, but this is not rocket science.

324
00:21:00,979 --> 00:21:03,619
You're buying the top and you're about to get smoked.

325
00:21:03,819 --> 00:21:08,679
So I think a lot of these companies do have to get washed out simply because bear markets,

326
00:21:08,939 --> 00:21:13,279
in capitalism, the bear market's job is to flush out the dumb ideas.

327
00:21:13,839 --> 00:21:17,639
And these companies are absolutely dumb ideas across the board.

328
00:21:18,159 --> 00:21:20,519
There is a handful of winners that will come out of this thing.

329
00:21:21,239 --> 00:21:25,259
The market is just proving that, I'm sorry, there's just no demand.

330
00:21:25,259 --> 00:21:29,699
like even sailors preferred stocks, all of them, as of yesterday,

331
00:21:29,779 --> 00:21:31,879
were trading below $100 face value.

332
00:21:32,439 --> 00:21:35,639
If strategy can't raise debt and preferred equity,

333
00:21:36,499 --> 00:21:39,779
Mr. Treasury Company number 45 ain't got a hope in hell.

334
00:21:39,959 --> 00:21:41,119
You're in a world of trouble.

335
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,159
I don't even think people want to acquire these things

336
00:21:44,159 --> 00:21:46,559
because it costs them money to undo the existing business.

337
00:21:46,919 --> 00:21:49,959
So, yeah, I think the Treasury Company model is very challenged.

338
00:21:50,059 --> 00:21:50,319
We'll see.

339
00:21:50,419 --> 00:21:51,939
There'll be phoenixes that rise from the ashes,

340
00:21:51,939 --> 00:21:56,339
but like this whole, we need 600 of these things in every country, not happening.

341
00:21:56,979 --> 00:21:58,279
So what do you do?

342
00:21:58,459 --> 00:21:59,939
I mean, you mentioned the sailors preferreds.

343
00:22:00,759 --> 00:22:04,039
Do you think that the market just needs time to develop these

344
00:22:04,039 --> 00:22:07,419
or is the market just showing that there's really no demand yet?

345
00:22:08,039 --> 00:22:12,619
Oh, there will be demand for sure, for sailors preps, no question.

346
00:22:13,019 --> 00:22:14,399
I don't think we have it yet,

347
00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:18,479
but I do believe that the products that he is selling there, no question.

348
00:22:18,479 --> 00:22:19,999
I've had countless conversations,

349
00:22:20,719 --> 00:22:24,419
often with Bitcoiners who are late in their Bitcoin journey.

350
00:22:24,939 --> 00:22:26,059
Could be that they're retiring.

351
00:22:26,259 --> 00:22:27,339
Could be that they've just got a bunch of money

352
00:22:27,339 --> 00:22:28,399
and they want to just have...

353
00:22:28,399 --> 00:22:30,979
There's a lot of Bitcoiners out there, no question.

354
00:22:31,579 --> 00:22:34,039
Feast preferreds, they can go and put a million bucks in there

355
00:22:34,039 --> 00:22:36,259
and bang, you got a hundred grand salary.

356
00:22:36,919 --> 00:22:39,759
That's a great way to retire if he can keep that going.

357
00:22:40,439 --> 00:22:43,559
Saylor can do that with 640, 650,000 Bitcoin.

358
00:22:43,559 --> 00:22:50,819
your company with 2000 coins you aren't big enough to justify me any like there's never

359
00:22:50,819 --> 00:22:56,279
going to be liquidity for these preferred so um i've often been of the view that uh the means by

360
00:22:56,279 --> 00:23:01,339
which they accumulate the bitcoin the preferreds strategies are bond salesmen that's their product

361
00:23:01,339 --> 00:23:09,499
they sell bonds totally makes sense mr treasury company 500 who just sells stock at a premium and

362
00:23:09,499 --> 00:23:13,079
And then once their stock goes underwater, they don't have a premium, so they can't actually

363
00:23:13,079 --> 00:23:14,139
do anything.

364
00:23:15,059 --> 00:23:15,739
Good luck.

365
00:23:15,979 --> 00:23:17,459
You have no business model.

366
00:23:17,659 --> 00:23:18,119
That's the problem.

367
00:23:18,199 --> 00:23:22,019
You're a zombie company with a bunch of Bitcoiners who thought they could get rich, and it's

368
00:23:22,019 --> 00:23:23,639
kind of smoked all of their investors.

369
00:23:24,379 --> 00:23:30,399
Honestly, it's really tough to watch because I know treasury company bulls like to sweep

370
00:23:30,399 --> 00:23:35,199
this under the rug, but so many Bitcoiners got caught up in this hype, and you have decimated

371
00:23:35,199 --> 00:23:35,979
their portfolios.

372
00:23:35,979 --> 00:23:37,039
And it's free market.

373
00:23:37,139 --> 00:23:38,099
Go and buy whatever you want.

374
00:23:38,099 --> 00:23:46,179
looks like shit coins to me now uh i think like last cycle we saw a lot of this at least i'm kind

375
00:23:46,179 --> 00:23:50,199
of seeing some similarities with like these bitcoin mining companies that were essentially

376
00:23:50,199 --> 00:23:55,359
levering on their bitcoin miners and they did that kind of at the top and we saw a lot of them

377
00:23:55,359 --> 00:24:00,819
explode on the way down of course the strong survived uh is this going to be kind of do you

378
00:24:00,819 --> 00:24:05,399
see that kind of market starting to play out in the treasury companies kind of similarly

379
00:24:05,399 --> 00:24:10,719
in a sense no i do and i think the uh there will be phoenixes that rise out of this thing no

380
00:24:10,719 --> 00:24:14,499
question and yeah what i think is going to be a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow

381
00:24:14,499 --> 00:24:22,719
is if you look at mstr if you bought mstr at a 2x mnav the kind of the the idea of the mnav

382
00:24:22,719 --> 00:24:28,879
is that it's like a growth it's like a p ratio or like a growth multiple the simple way to think

383
00:24:28,879 --> 00:24:33,739
about is if you've got an mnav of two the market is assuming you're going to be able to double your

384
00:24:33,739 --> 00:24:41,439
Bitcoin stack. You're going to grow into your MNAV. Can strategy buy another 650,000 Bitcoin?

385
00:24:42,319 --> 00:24:46,139
Well, noting that in bear markets, including this one, because if you look at strategies

386
00:24:46,139 --> 00:24:52,799
accumulation, it's flat. He's buying 600 coins now, not 60,000. He's in a whole different world

387
00:24:52,799 --> 00:24:57,619
of not being able to buy as much. Saylor can't buy the bottom, which means treasury company number

388
00:24:57,619 --> 00:25:02,799
200 certainly can't buy the bottom. So if you can't grow your stack in the bear, well, when

389
00:25:02,799 --> 00:25:07,119
the price goes up, sure, you're going to be able to raise capital, sell bonds, sell equity,

390
00:25:07,499 --> 00:25:12,139
but it's going to be way harder. The more the price goes up, the harder it is for you to double

391
00:25:12,139 --> 00:25:19,519
your stack. So does MSTR ever get back to an MNAV of two? Maybe not. MetaPlanet. MetaPlanet's got

392
00:25:19,519 --> 00:25:26,279
30,000 coins. Can they really 6X their coins to get to an MNAV of six, which is where I think they

393
00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:32,739
started to peak out? Maybe, but that's tough. So I think a lot of investors who bought it very

394
00:25:32,739 --> 00:25:38,679
high premiums now that it's compressed, right? If you were to buy it an MNAV of one or even below

395
00:25:38,679 --> 00:25:43,559
one, sure. Can it expand to three? Maybe. Can it expand to four? Maybe. Is it going to go back to

396
00:25:43,559 --> 00:25:49,619
the previous MNAV of your original purchase? Maybe not. So I think a lot of people who bought the top

397
00:25:49,619 --> 00:25:53,519
of these things will probably never get their money back. And if they do, they'll get to break

398
00:25:53,519 --> 00:25:57,619
even and that'll probably be the next top. So that is the challenge with these MNAVs. Now,

399
00:25:57,619 --> 00:26:04,279
when the MNAVs are one or below one, way, way more attractive, much more attractive. Once they're at

400
00:26:04,279 --> 00:26:10,419
like high multiples, it's just very, very expensive. So I think that's the hard lesson a lot of people

401
00:26:10,419 --> 00:26:17,019
are going to learn, I think. Last bull run, we had exchanges blow up. You saw FTX, Celsius,

402
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BlockFi, you name it. But the true power of Bitcoin is getting it off an exchange into cold

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414
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All right, enough from me.

415
00:27:24,859 --> 00:27:27,019
Let's get back to the show.

416
00:27:27,019 --> 00:27:44,758
Active much more attractive Once they at like high multiples it just very very expensive So I think that the hard lesson a lot of people are going to learn I think Yeah it very interesting seeing this market dynamic definitely play out And I think what

417
00:27:44,758 --> 00:27:49,237
been interesting too is that we've had this like group think that, I mean, myself included,

418
00:27:49,237 --> 00:27:56,338
I thought that October, November, we've always seen in a bull market Q4 of like this timing of

419
00:27:56,338 --> 00:27:59,057
the four-year cycle be absolutely crazy.

420
00:27:59,598 --> 00:28:01,678
And this time it's been the complete opposite.

421
00:28:01,878 --> 00:28:06,178
Obviously, we had the red October and we're crashing and burning here now.

422
00:28:06,237 --> 00:28:09,977
Well, October was actually a positive month and November is a terrible month.

423
00:28:10,658 --> 00:28:10,918
Okay.

424
00:28:11,237 --> 00:28:11,498
Yeah.

425
00:28:11,838 --> 00:28:13,118
Well, yeah.

426
00:28:13,217 --> 00:28:14,338
I mean, normally it's...

427
00:28:15,278 --> 00:28:15,618
Sorry.

428
00:28:15,717 --> 00:28:16,378
No, I take that back.

429
00:28:16,438 --> 00:28:16,778
September.

430
00:28:17,018 --> 00:28:17,838
September was...

431
00:28:17,838 --> 00:28:18,197
Sorry.

432
00:28:18,318 --> 00:28:20,338
Historically, September is always a red month.

433
00:28:20,398 --> 00:28:21,138
We had a positive month.

434
00:28:21,717 --> 00:28:22,957
October, November are usually good months.

435
00:28:22,998 --> 00:28:23,557
We've had red months.

436
00:28:23,658 --> 00:28:23,737
Yeah.

437
00:28:24,118 --> 00:28:24,438
Yeah.

438
00:28:24,438 --> 00:28:30,178
And I mean, of course, we're recording this, what, it's the 17th or 18th here in November.

439
00:28:30,498 --> 00:28:34,057
So still got some time, obviously, a lot can change.

440
00:28:34,258 --> 00:28:38,078
But how do you see this playing out basically through the rest of the year?

441
00:28:38,237 --> 00:28:44,038
Because if we're in this bear cycle that you're describing here, it seems like we're basically

442
00:28:44,038 --> 00:28:47,998
going to chop or potentially go downwards here through the rest of the year.

443
00:28:48,118 --> 00:28:48,898
Is that correct?

444
00:28:48,898 --> 00:28:54,957
I mean, there is absolutely no reason and there never has been for Bitcoin to follow a four-year cycle.

445
00:28:55,258 --> 00:28:55,358
Never.

446
00:28:55,778 --> 00:28:56,418
There's never been one.

447
00:28:56,878 --> 00:29:03,037
So, you know, people look at this and they go, oh, but we've topped around this zone, so therefore October has to be the top or whenever it was.

448
00:29:03,638 --> 00:29:08,638
You know, seasonality this year, almost every month has been the polar opposite of what people expected.

449
00:29:09,498 --> 00:29:15,338
This cycle, this market, whatever it is, I am very much of the view and have been for some time.

450
00:29:15,598 --> 00:29:17,878
You have to be flexible in your thinking.

451
00:29:17,878 --> 00:29:22,598
You cannot get a sign to say it must be a four-year cycle or it must be in October.

452
00:29:23,258 --> 00:29:26,977
I've been writing for a lot of my subscribers basically saying, you know, the thing that

453
00:29:26,977 --> 00:29:31,018
concerns me as an analyst and the thing I've been hyper aware of and the reason why I wrote

454
00:29:31,018 --> 00:29:35,658
that piece on the cusp on like the 16th of October, the reason I wrote that piece is

455
00:29:35,658 --> 00:29:37,398
not because I was afraid of a blow-off top.

456
00:29:37,498 --> 00:29:39,477
Blow-off tops, honestly, are much easier to spot.

457
00:29:39,578 --> 00:29:42,618
You don't know when they actually peak, but they're very easy to spot.

458
00:29:42,618 --> 00:29:49,578
what concerned me is a bull just dying of old age, just rolling over and having no like clear

459
00:29:49,578 --> 00:29:54,778
euphoric peak. I think we can all agree that's probably what we've seen. So that's why I was

460
00:29:54,778 --> 00:30:00,598
like hyper aware, but I'm not going to anchor myself to Uptobers and four year cycles and all

461
00:30:00,598 --> 00:30:05,018
this stuff. I'm just going to read what I think is going on in the space. Show me the sell side,

462
00:30:05,018 --> 00:30:09,398
show me the demand side, show me when treasury companies, and I've been saying this for a long

463
00:30:09,398 --> 00:30:16,598
time. When the preferreds go below $100, bear market signal. And what happened? They went below

464
00:30:16,598 --> 00:30:21,197
in October, bear market signal. We started getting three out of four, only Strife was the only one

465
00:30:21,197 --> 00:30:25,758
that stayed above. These are all just like packets of information that says, sailor can't buy more

466
00:30:25,758 --> 00:30:31,158
coins. The ETFs are starting to slow down. We've got more and more sell side coming from old hands.

467
00:30:31,278 --> 00:30:35,717
As the price goes lower, more of those old hands start coming back to life. And then once we get

468
00:30:35,717 --> 00:30:40,057
down to 95k everyone's like oh shit ogs are selling it's like yes ogs are selling like people

469
00:30:40,057 --> 00:30:46,638
have been selling for months in ramping up billions and billions of dollars so you know this is what i

470
00:30:46,638 --> 00:30:52,797
love about bitcoin data it's all public it's all there and no one is looking at it no one has a clue

471
00:30:52,797 --> 00:30:57,138
that all this stuff is there to just be like well i can see a lot of selling i'll make decisions

472
00:30:57,138 --> 00:31:02,977
accordingly prepare for downside well the the whales have been selling uh it seems like every

473
00:31:02,977 --> 00:31:09,158
every cycle uh at least like near the top that's what everybody's always kind of pointed at um have

474
00:31:09,158 --> 00:31:15,197
they been selling more so in this cycle than than any of the previous oh and and with with no equal

475
00:31:15,197 --> 00:31:20,858
with no equal the amount of sales i would seen just in 2025 just this year would have killed

476
00:31:20,858 --> 00:31:25,957
every previous bull four or five times over so what i actually think is the most remarkable thing

477
00:31:25,957 --> 00:31:31,838
is the fact that we aren't lower sooner so there has been a tremendous amount and this is what i

478
00:31:31,838 --> 00:31:38,838
think hodlers need to take away from this all this sounds scary and horrible and nasty we have been

479
00:31:38,838 --> 00:31:45,737
seeing tens of billions of dollars a week getting absorbed by someone up in that 90k 95 100k zone

480
00:31:45,737 --> 00:31:52,638
just endless selling and yet the market didn't go to 75 it didn't go to 60 the last time we saw

481
00:31:52,638 --> 00:31:58,477
80 000 bitcoin get sold we saw that in july some whale sold 80 000 coins at 100 and i think it was

482
00:31:58,477 --> 00:32:03,498
like 110k market went down three and a half percent went straight back up the last time we

483
00:32:03,498 --> 00:32:09,678
saw that was when luna sold 80 000 coins and we went from 45k down to 17 so it's a very very

484
00:32:09,678 --> 00:32:16,878
different market and a much cheaper price so the demand this is the thing who on earth is buying

485
00:32:16,878 --> 00:32:23,138
tens of billions of dollars a week and just like absorbing it like a champion they don't care that

486
00:32:23,138 --> 00:32:28,858
the market's gone lower. The folks who have bought those coins are forever allocators and they've got

487
00:32:28,858 --> 00:32:34,058
deep, deep pockets. So I think for the hodlers in the audience, this is why I'm turning on my DCA

488
00:32:34,058 --> 00:32:42,237
because my conviction of where this ends up, like 2026, 2027, moving forward, Bitcoin is going to be

489
00:32:42,237 --> 00:32:47,398
just so much higher. So I am absolutely a buyer down at these prices. We've seen what I've been

490
00:32:47,398 --> 00:32:52,737
calling the great rotation, the old money, call them whales, call them OGs, call them people who

491
00:32:52,737 --> 00:32:58,697
bought the FTX bottom, doesn't matter. People who've got enough of a stack, any Bitcoiner who's

492
00:32:58,697 --> 00:33:03,138
been around for two or three cycles has had this thought, I could really change my life with this

493
00:33:03,138 --> 00:33:06,378
kind of money. I don't want to do it yet because I know Bitcoin's going to keep going, but I could

494
00:33:06,378 --> 00:33:14,918
really change my life. We've seen a big rotation from those guys to some new pool of very, very,

495
00:33:14,998 --> 00:33:19,438
very big buyers. They're forever allocators. I don't know if they're sovereigns. I don't know

496
00:33:19,438 --> 00:33:24,258
of their companies. The amazing thing is they're not coming through the ETFs. This is coming through

497
00:33:24,258 --> 00:33:28,697
like spot. This is actually like spot buying. And that's what makes this so interesting because you

498
00:33:28,697 --> 00:33:32,957
would expect, oh, it's an institution that is buying via the ETFs. No. Whoever is buying this

499
00:33:32,957 --> 00:33:37,578
is buying spot corn because we're not seeing the ETF inflows, commensurate, not even close

500
00:33:37,578 --> 00:33:42,838
to the scale of the selling. So I look at that picture and I love that it's a bit of a mystery.

501
00:33:42,998 --> 00:33:47,197
I'm dissatisfied. I don't have a good answer for it. All I know is that there has been absorption

502
00:33:47,197 --> 00:33:50,758
in the spot market that most Bitcoiners just simply don't understand.

503
00:33:51,398 --> 00:33:54,358
I hope one day we find out, maybe in like 12 months, 24 months,

504
00:33:54,378 --> 00:33:55,678
we find out who these buyers are.

505
00:33:55,957 --> 00:33:59,178
But someone with a very, very deep pocket has taken a lot of coin

506
00:33:59,178 --> 00:33:59,717
off the market.

507
00:34:00,078 --> 00:34:01,078
We probably won't see those again.

508
00:34:01,158 --> 00:34:02,557
So it's kind of an interesting concept.

509
00:34:03,197 --> 00:34:06,918
Do you think it's like big enough pockets for it to be some sort

510
00:34:06,918 --> 00:34:08,778
of government or do you think it's like an official?

511
00:34:09,298 --> 00:34:09,477
Yeah.

512
00:34:09,718 --> 00:34:14,457
No, it has to be a government or banks or it's some entity

513
00:34:14,457 --> 00:34:15,837
who is large.

514
00:34:15,837 --> 00:34:20,418
and when i say entity it's not gonna be just one big monster it's going to be many of these things

515
00:34:20,418 --> 00:34:25,738
but the like the scale of the selling like we were saying billions of dollars a day several billion

516
00:34:25,738 --> 00:34:30,538
dollars a day retail doesn't have that kind of money like it's just not individuals um so we are

517
00:34:30,538 --> 00:34:35,957
seeing big big entities starting to accumulate and when you look at the uh the on-chain volume

518
00:34:35,957 --> 00:34:43,177
75 percent of all transactions are moving a million dollars plus all-time high for that metric 75

519
00:34:43,177 --> 00:34:48,038
percent of all on-chain transactions. By the way, the mempool is empty. So no one's actually

520
00:34:48,038 --> 00:34:53,157
transacting on-chain, but the ones that are, are a million dollars plus. That is where the

521
00:34:53,157 --> 00:34:59,117
dominance of this market is. This is what I love about the data. No one is looking at this stuff,

522
00:34:59,198 --> 00:35:03,877
but it's amazing. And it tells you a story that like, just hold the phone because I think the

523
00:35:03,877 --> 00:35:07,778
market's in a very interesting spot because the buyers are very, very different.

524
00:35:08,418 --> 00:35:10,718
Yeah. So the big players are here, essentially.

525
00:35:10,718 --> 00:35:18,218
undeniably so oh my god all right well here we go so i mean i guess that's going to make for

526
00:35:18,218 --> 00:35:23,218
some interesting market dynamics here coming forward in in 26 whether they actually come

527
00:35:23,218 --> 00:35:29,117
out or not uh i i guess is kind of just beside the point because we've had eric trump go out on

528
00:35:29,117 --> 00:35:33,357
plenty of interviews saying you know the saudis and some of these other countries are buying

529
00:35:33,357 --> 00:35:38,518
bitcoin or they're mining bitcoin and they just don't want to be public about it so i wouldn't be

530
00:35:38,518 --> 00:35:43,377
surprised if it is multiple governments at this point. And, you know, the Trumps have been kind of

531
00:35:43,377 --> 00:35:49,817
hinting at that. So I think that's going to be very interesting. Now, one of my absolute favorite

532
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533
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537
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538
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539
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540
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541
00:36:38,518 --> 00:36:43,097
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542
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543
00:36:52,297 --> 00:36:56,898
So I wouldn't be surprised if it is multiple governments at this point. And, you know,

544
00:36:56,938 --> 00:37:02,278
the Trumps have been kind of hinting at that. So I think that's going to be very interesting. Now,

545
00:37:02,278 --> 00:37:08,938
coming into 26, um, you know, I, I guess, how do you see that year playing out? Because I mean,

546
00:37:08,938 --> 00:37:13,337
I know you say, uh, the four year cycle, there's been no reasoning. A lot of people have been

547
00:37:13,337 --> 00:37:19,438
equating that to the having cycles. Um, do you equate like, uh, you know, I guess a big difference

548
00:37:19,438 --> 00:37:25,258
for, you know, the potential of the having in 28, uh, or is, uh, you know, these years just

549
00:37:25,258 --> 00:37:29,418
all gonna change. Cause I mean, of course there was the me and what it was like green, green,

550
00:37:29,418 --> 00:37:35,538
red green um and it doesn't who knows if we actually get to that uh meme this year it doesn't

551
00:37:35,538 --> 00:37:41,157
seem likely so um you know how do you see next year playing out uh with all that being said

552
00:37:41,157 --> 00:37:49,898
yeah so i was just doing a quick calc here um 450 coins a day times 100 000 a coin is 0.045 billion

553
00:37:49,898 --> 00:37:56,618
so every day 0.045 billion is being sold what we call long-term holders coins that have held for

554
00:37:56,618 --> 00:38:00,777
at least six months. And the reason why we like six months is that most coins that transact each day,

555
00:38:01,418 --> 00:38:04,617
they were spent yesterday. They were spent a week ago. They were fairly young.

556
00:38:05,218 --> 00:38:09,317
No one really cares that a coin, like imagine a trader. They bought today, they sold yesterday.

557
00:38:09,637 --> 00:38:13,157
They sold yesterday, they bought today. Like no one actually cares. They're kind of neutral because

558
00:38:13,157 --> 00:38:17,317
they're just chopping around in the range. Once you've held your coin for six months, you've got

559
00:38:17,317 --> 00:38:20,898
some opportunity costs. You could have been invested in NVIDIA, but you chose to be invested

560
00:38:20,898 --> 00:38:27,957
in Bitcoin. So that's six months. So miners, 0.045 billion. The long-term holder has been

561
00:38:27,957 --> 00:38:36,038
selling $3 billion a day, like not even close to the same. So the halving has not been relevant for

562
00:38:36,038 --> 00:38:41,938
a very, very long time. It's the existing holder selling that's been the real dominant factor in my

563
00:38:41,938 --> 00:38:49,617
view. So look, I don't know how 26 and 27 play out, but from a macro perspective, if you just

564
00:38:49,617 --> 00:38:53,617
kind of think about this from like an incentive structure the u.s government's got to get re-elected

565
00:38:53,617 --> 00:38:56,817
the markets are going to be going up for that to happen because otherwise they're going to be in

566
00:38:56,817 --> 00:39:02,058
trouble if they aren't having a good time and the markets are falling down and people are sad and

567
00:39:02,058 --> 00:39:06,698
people are depressed and people start getting fired what are they going to do like they're

568
00:39:06,698 --> 00:39:11,518
going to have to lean like the also the banks if the market falls down the banks start getting

569
00:39:11,518 --> 00:39:17,317
wrecked they got to make the phone call whether it's j pal or whoever follows j pal at some point

570
00:39:17,317 --> 00:39:21,797
the liquidity bazooka comes on. And when I look at the market structure as it stands today,

571
00:39:22,657 --> 00:39:26,137
I didn't know there was going to be tariffs. I didn't know there was going to be Trump. I didn't

572
00:39:26,137 --> 00:39:30,898
know there was going to be China trade wars and all this stuff. When I started buying Bitcoin in

573
00:39:30,898 --> 00:39:37,698
2019, I was buying it as insurance because the fiat system is in serious trouble. And I'm looking

574
00:39:37,698 --> 00:39:42,498
around me going, it looks like the fiat system's in serious trouble and there's kerosene everywhere

575
00:39:42,498 --> 00:39:46,977
and there's a bunch of guys smoking over there. I'm like, this thing's going to go up. So I'm like,

576
00:39:46,977 --> 00:39:50,778
what am I going to do? Sell my insurance now because some dude thinks there's a four-year cycle.

577
00:39:51,198 --> 00:39:56,677
Some dude's unhappy that October, November of 2025 were a bad year. A bunch of Bitcoiners are

578
00:39:56,677 --> 00:40:03,618
salty because gold had a good three-month period. I just see a lot of emotions and people getting

579
00:40:03,618 --> 00:40:09,418
caught up in the near term where their expectations, they anchored so heavily and say,

580
00:40:09,498 --> 00:40:14,318
this must happen. And then when the opposite happened, they were like, Bitcoin sucks. It's

581
00:40:14,318 --> 00:40:20,157
like, no, your expectations were mismanaged. You didn't actually look at what was going on under

582
00:40:20,157 --> 00:40:25,518
the hood and you just assumed this narrative was written in stone and must play out. Red, red,

583
00:40:25,617 --> 00:40:31,657
green, green, green, red. At the end of the day, if we have a bear market right now and we bought

584
00:40:31,657 --> 00:40:37,778
them at 85 and we go down 35%, that's going to break everybody's head because no one's going to

585
00:40:37,778 --> 00:40:42,198
call it a bear market. Everyone's going to start calling it a correction or a bull market event.

586
00:40:42,198 --> 00:40:44,738
Like you've got to be super flexible.

587
00:40:44,918 --> 00:40:47,198
You've got to think forward and just go like at some point,

588
00:40:47,698 --> 00:40:51,977
the fiat system, the insurance that Bitcoin is on it, it's in trouble.

589
00:40:52,337 --> 00:40:53,477
I'm not selling my insurance here.

590
00:40:53,498 --> 00:40:55,677
I'm buying more insurance because like when you look around you,

591
00:40:55,738 --> 00:40:59,157
I mean, come on, guys, the train's going in one direction.

592
00:41:00,317 --> 00:41:04,018
Yeah, nothing stops this train, right, as Len Alden always says.

593
00:41:04,357 --> 00:41:07,817
So, I mean, it definitely seems like it's inevitable,

594
00:41:07,817 --> 00:41:24,176
But you know you brought up the Fed and like the current kind of market dynamics which I think are very interesting right now because we have Trump who essentially just you know yelling at Jerome Powell publicly every chance he gets to cut interest rates to zero And we got Jerome Powell

595
00:41:24,296 --> 00:41:27,496
who's actually, I mean, if you look at like some of these prediction markets, it's like

596
00:41:27,496 --> 00:41:33,736
basically a 50-50 shot whether or not he's going to cut in December. And, you know, it seems like

597
00:41:33,736 --> 00:41:39,956
the market's already priced in three cuts for this year. So, you know, with all this being said

598
00:41:39,956 --> 00:41:43,796
and the current macro environment pal being out in the future,

599
00:41:43,976 --> 00:41:49,156
is it just like kind of, I guess, inevitable that the print is going to be coming,

600
00:41:49,316 --> 00:41:50,876
but it's just a matter of when?

601
00:41:51,516 --> 00:41:57,076
Or do you think, you know, maybe they'll get some Fed guy that has his head on straight

602
00:41:57,076 --> 00:42:01,876
for a little bit and tries to, you know, combat this inflationary pressures that we're seeing

603
00:42:01,876 --> 00:42:02,316
in the US.

604
00:42:02,316 --> 00:42:07,736
So it's not going to be as clear cut as the asset bubble that people even like myself

605
00:42:07,736 --> 00:42:09,096
have been calling for for years.

606
00:42:09,716 --> 00:42:09,996
Yeah, yeah.

607
00:42:10,056 --> 00:42:13,636
No, it is a very, very complex market structure.

608
00:42:13,856 --> 00:42:15,216
It is never going to be so binary.

609
00:42:15,476 --> 00:42:18,956
I think it's amazing watching Bitcoin has become gold bugs by just like looking at the

610
00:42:18,956 --> 00:42:19,876
next Fed rate cut.

611
00:42:19,996 --> 00:42:22,336
I mean, like, what are we, 90 years old?

612
00:42:22,436 --> 00:42:24,076
Like, come on, who cares about Fed rate cut?

613
00:42:24,796 --> 00:42:28,316
Like, Len does a great job of exploring this.

614
00:42:29,256 --> 00:42:33,836
Fed rate cuts matter when it's private lending that's causing all the, it's not, it's fiscal,

615
00:42:34,016 --> 00:42:34,716
it's the government.

616
00:42:34,716 --> 00:42:37,716
So it's just a different transmission mechanism.

617
00:42:37,716 --> 00:42:39,176
So I don't think rate cuts really matter.

618
00:42:39,316 --> 00:42:42,916
I think a lot of people love to look at rate cuts as like a reasoning for why things happen.

619
00:42:43,696 --> 00:42:46,596
Sure, there's going to be cycles and there's going to be pivot points to these things,

620
00:42:46,656 --> 00:42:49,756
but I don't think 25, like 25 bips, who cares?

621
00:42:50,076 --> 00:42:50,776
Does it change anything?

622
00:42:50,996 --> 00:42:51,376
Probably not.

623
00:42:51,876 --> 00:42:55,156
What really matters is they're going to start tapering off QT come December.

624
00:42:55,576 --> 00:43:00,116
That is just all things being equal, less liquidity getting sucked out of the market.

625
00:43:00,576 --> 00:43:01,956
That is a net change.

626
00:43:02,156 --> 00:43:05,356
I think there's a high probability that they have to go back to balance sheet expansion

627
00:43:05,356 --> 00:43:08,256
because they just don't have the buyers for the bonds.

628
00:43:09,056 --> 00:43:10,476
The other thing, stablecoins,

629
00:43:11,056 --> 00:43:13,916
what was the first bill that this administration put through?

630
00:43:14,056 --> 00:43:14,716
The Genius Act.

631
00:43:15,136 --> 00:43:16,316
Why on earth did they do that?

632
00:43:16,556 --> 00:43:19,696
Because it's all about we need buyers for treasury bills.

633
00:43:20,356 --> 00:43:22,856
So what we're about to see is stablecoins proliferate

634
00:43:22,856 --> 00:43:26,116
and that creates demand for short-term government, US paper.

635
00:43:26,936 --> 00:43:29,376
The third world is going to buy stablecoins like crazy

636
00:43:29,376 --> 00:43:32,576
because the lira sucks, the Bolivar sucks.

637
00:43:32,896 --> 00:43:35,356
They're going to go and buy Tether and all these other stable coins.

638
00:43:36,016 --> 00:43:41,296
And in that process, short-term funding for the US government, which is effectively creating

639
00:43:41,296 --> 00:43:45,356
more and more collateral because those short-term bills have very little volatility risk because

640
00:43:45,356 --> 00:43:48,396
of inflation, because every month they roll over to a new bill.

641
00:43:48,816 --> 00:43:53,416
In that instance, that's just great collateral, which the system is going to use to lever up.

642
00:43:53,676 --> 00:44:02,436
So in my view, and also if they do lower rates on those short-term bills, as they lower rates

643
00:44:02,436 --> 00:44:07,836
on short-term bills, people are going to say, well, I'm not getting any return from this 3%

644
00:44:07,836 --> 00:44:12,776
government paper or this 2.5% government paper. I've got to go and buy assets instead. I've got

645
00:44:12,776 --> 00:44:16,336
to get out on the risk curve because the yield simply isn't high enough to keep me there. So

646
00:44:16,336 --> 00:44:20,696
I think there's all of these transmission mechanisms. I think that there is probably

647
00:44:20,696 --> 00:44:27,236
going to be an inflection back to the upside on a lot of these types of metrics. It just takes time.

648
00:44:27,496 --> 00:44:32,416
Macro moves at a glacial pace and then sometimes things just click in a gear and then away it goes.

649
00:44:32,436 --> 00:44:39,196
yeah so then what would you see the potential of bitcoin just kind of following the same path as

650
00:44:39,196 --> 00:44:44,056
traditional equities or like you know there's risk on assets that it has been or do you see

651
00:44:44,056 --> 00:44:51,456
the potential of a decoupling here uh in an event like this yeah i'm at the view that bitcoin has

652
00:44:51,456 --> 00:44:56,576
been walking to the beat of someone else's drum for a little while now i think there's gonna become

653
00:44:56,576 --> 00:45:01,396
a point in time and the same way that all the bitcoiners were like oh it sucks that gold's

654
00:45:01,396 --> 00:45:05,516
going up bitcoin's shit it's like that's going to happen in gold bugs peter schiff is going to have

655
00:45:05,516 --> 00:45:10,296
the worst week of his life when bitcoin just blasts through the all-time high gold's gonna

656
00:45:10,296 --> 00:45:14,976
be going sideways and bitcoin's just going to be absolutely mooning i'm very confident that bitcoin's

657
00:45:14,976 --> 00:45:20,376
just going to find its own beat i'm at the view that below 95 whilst i still think it can go lower

658
00:45:20,376 --> 00:45:25,956
i believe bitcoin is undervalued i already think we're undervalued compared to where we deserve to

659
00:45:25,956 --> 00:45:30,676
be so from that perspective from a fundamental standpoint i'm a very happy buyer because i think

660
00:45:30,676 --> 00:45:36,256
once this thing starts moving, I think it's going to move really quite hard and leave a lot of

661
00:45:36,256 --> 00:45:42,176
people. A lot of people who will see you in three years. It's like, yeah, it'll be a bit higher by

662
00:45:42,176 --> 00:45:47,996
the time you start stepping back in. Now, you mentioned the stable coins and a lot of the

663
00:45:47,996 --> 00:45:53,936
collateral by buying these short-term treasury bonds and things like that. Would that just make

664
00:45:53,936 --> 00:45:59,616
the general market structure just extremely more volatile in a sense? I think so. It's creating

665
00:45:59,616 --> 00:46:05,916
more collateral for banks and hedge funds and whatnot to lever up on because of all the,

666
00:46:05,916 --> 00:46:12,636
in inverted commas, pristine collaterals, a US government bond that renews every three months

667
00:46:12,636 --> 00:46:17,316
or every month is the best because there's no duration risk whatsoever.

668
00:46:18,256 --> 00:46:23,176
So in that instance, it's the perfect collateral. And Luke Groman talks about this,

669
00:46:23,756 --> 00:46:28,776
there's cash and then there's cash-like and treasury bills are cash-like. It's printing

670
00:46:28,776 --> 00:46:33,636
money it's like it's close to you can get to printing money without kind of doing it outright

671
00:46:33,636 --> 00:46:38,536
with the xerox so i think it's it you know it to me it's just going to add so much liquidity to the

672
00:46:38,536 --> 00:46:42,836
system and stable coins don't care about duration they need those short-term bills that's their

673
00:46:42,836 --> 00:46:46,876
preferred instrument because they have to be demand deposits someone wants to redeem they've got to be

674
00:46:46,876 --> 00:46:52,096
able to duration miss uh duration match they need to kind of have everything in short-term paper they

675
00:46:52,096 --> 00:46:57,356
can't be going too far out in the curve no one wants to take duration risk now will this mean uh

676
00:46:57,356 --> 00:47:01,496
that I guess the banks, even like JP Morgan and all these others are going to, you think,

677
00:47:01,556 --> 00:47:05,276
start to create this stable coin? Is that going to kind of open the floodgates in that sense?

678
00:47:06,036 --> 00:47:10,056
I think so. And I think there's going to be, I mean, there'll be a lot of developments on that

679
00:47:10,056 --> 00:47:13,896
front. I mean, all the banks are going to be working on it because they have to. They wouldn't

680
00:47:13,896 --> 00:47:19,436
be fighting and trying to get the Genius Act modified because of the interest payments. And

681
00:47:19,436 --> 00:47:24,336
there's different ways that firms are finding a way around that. So there's a whole lot of

682
00:47:24,336 --> 00:47:28,216
dynamics there that I think the banks are all going to get involved in it. We'll see new payment

683
00:47:28,216 --> 00:47:34,216
systems. From my perspective, I think the stablecoin story is most interesting outside the US because

684
00:47:34,216 --> 00:47:40,116
people in the US, you literally have dollars. It's actually kind of hard for Australians to get

685
00:47:40,116 --> 00:47:45,276
dollars. You can use a wise bank account, but that's kind of it. There's not that many ways

686
00:47:45,276 --> 00:47:51,116
to get easy access to dollars. If you're in Turkey, it's really hard to get dollars, but they want

687
00:47:51,116 --> 00:47:55,856
them. So a stable coin is absolutely perfect. And this is why we're seeing tether. It's like

688
00:47:55,856 --> 00:48:01,196
organically just become money. It's actually become money in a lot of these developing economies.

689
00:48:01,256 --> 00:48:05,976
And that's just demand for US bills. Why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece of

690
00:48:05,976 --> 00:48:12,056
paper? It doesn't make sense. You need a foolproof solution and I've got it for you. You could get

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694
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698
00:48:57,196 --> 00:49:02,056
Back to the show. Perfect. This is why we're seeing Tether. It's like organically just become

699
00:49:02,056 --> 00:49:06,516
money. It's actually become money in a lot of these developing economies. And that's just demand

700
00:49:06,516 --> 00:49:11,856
for US bills. Yeah. I mean, like Tether's business model is absolutely insane. I mean,

701
00:49:11,856 --> 00:49:18,016
I think they're the most profitable company and they've got like, I don't know, like eight employees or something so tiny.

702
00:49:18,336 --> 00:49:25,836
So, I mean, it has been genius and it has been, you know, a company that's absolutely thriving in this landscape.

703
00:49:25,836 --> 00:49:30,236
But, you know, what kind of role then does Bitcoin play in all this?

704
00:49:30,236 --> 00:49:41,636
Do you think that it's starting to be, I guess, looked at as the potential of, you know, the digital gold, so to speak, that store of value, even with the short term volatility that we're seeing?

705
00:49:41,636 --> 00:49:44,496
or is there some other way that governments are going to start to use it?

706
00:49:44,576 --> 00:49:50,556
Because I think it's interesting that you're saying that we're seeing a big, giant player kind of coming in,

707
00:49:50,616 --> 00:49:52,656
but they're being hush-hush about it.

708
00:49:52,816 --> 00:49:55,836
We don't really know who it is right now, and it could be other governments.

709
00:49:55,836 --> 00:50:01,556
It could be giant banks, and there's fun-to-play-the-game-theory aspect on it.

710
00:50:01,816 --> 00:50:07,676
But how do you think that this dynamic would cause, I guess,

711
00:50:07,676 --> 00:50:13,056
some of these governments to look at Bitcoin comparatively to the way that stablecoins are

712
00:50:13,056 --> 00:50:17,456
being pushed so heavily? Yeah. So I think we can think about this from an incentive structure,

713
00:50:17,456 --> 00:50:21,756
I think they're different, but similar for individuals, companies, and governments.

714
00:50:23,596 --> 00:50:28,796
First things first, I think that there's a very clear separation between the global reserve

715
00:50:28,796 --> 00:50:33,516
asset savings and global reserve currency, which is medium of exchange, unit of account.

716
00:50:33,516 --> 00:50:39,496
the dollar will continue in my opinion to be the global reserve currency it will be the dominant

717
00:50:39,496 --> 00:50:45,696
thing used for trade and there's no there's no best second banana for this particular thing you

718
00:50:45,696 --> 00:50:50,556
can't you like the euro good luck with that like what do you get what's next the yen the yuan like

719
00:50:50,556 --> 00:50:58,196
there's not really a competitor so in a way bitcoin kind of has a potential to be used in that realm

720
00:50:58,196 --> 00:51:02,036
but I don't believe that Bitcoin is designed for small payments.

721
00:51:02,156 --> 00:51:04,496
It's going to be designed for the big scale stuff.

722
00:51:04,956 --> 00:51:09,936
Could you imagine a world where the Saudis want to transact oil with,

723
00:51:10,056 --> 00:51:11,656
I don't know, choose your other country?

724
00:51:12,656 --> 00:51:17,316
You could settle in gold with an armored van and a plane

725
00:51:17,316 --> 00:51:20,716
and an armored detail and $6 million worth of costs.

726
00:51:21,276 --> 00:51:23,016
You could also send a Bitcoin transaction.

727
00:51:23,796 --> 00:51:25,596
So from that perspective, Bitcoin,

728
00:51:25,596 --> 00:51:29,876
I think gold is certainly being reintroduced as the savings asset,

729
00:51:30,156 --> 00:51:33,036
global reserve asset, because as a sovereign,

730
00:51:33,996 --> 00:51:35,856
Bitcoin's cool and all, but it's $2 trillion.

731
00:51:36,776 --> 00:51:38,076
Gold, $30 trillion.

732
00:51:39,156 --> 00:51:40,036
Big history.

733
00:51:40,336 --> 00:51:41,596
It makes more sense.

734
00:51:42,096 --> 00:51:44,236
So if you imagine that you're a sovereign nation,

735
00:51:44,636 --> 00:51:48,456
you've got vaults full of gold over the course of, let's say,

736
00:51:48,676 --> 00:51:51,236
six months, 12 months, you're trading with this country,

737
00:51:51,356 --> 00:51:52,936
you've got their goods, you've got their currency,

738
00:51:52,936 --> 00:51:54,556
and eventually they're like, I've got a surplus.

739
00:51:54,556 --> 00:51:55,436
What do I do with that?

740
00:51:55,596 --> 00:51:57,336
I would like to settle that in gold.

741
00:51:57,556 --> 00:51:59,836
This is what China's been doing with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

742
00:52:00,376 --> 00:52:01,096
You trade in Yuan.

743
00:52:01,296 --> 00:52:02,396
You buy all the stuff you want in Yuan.

744
00:52:02,576 --> 00:52:03,876
I've got a bunch of Yuan left over.

745
00:52:04,436 --> 00:52:05,236
I'm going to buy gold.

746
00:52:05,356 --> 00:52:06,016
Thank you very much.

747
00:52:06,116 --> 00:52:06,756
Final settlement.

748
00:52:08,596 --> 00:52:11,716
Again, armored cars, planes, it's great.

749
00:52:11,716 --> 00:52:16,336
Once you've got the gold bars on your soil, that's final, final settlement.

750
00:52:17,136 --> 00:52:20,876
But also, what happens if we've got $3 billion that we need to settle?

751
00:52:21,476 --> 00:52:23,156
Hey, we could do a Bitcoin transaction for that.

752
00:52:23,656 --> 00:52:23,876
Bang.

753
00:52:24,176 --> 00:52:26,296
It's like a liquid layer that sits on top of the goal.

754
00:52:26,796 --> 00:52:28,276
And they do that once or twice.

755
00:52:28,316 --> 00:52:29,136
They test it out.

756
00:52:29,236 --> 00:52:29,956
Well, that's kind of interesting.

757
00:52:30,036 --> 00:52:30,456
That works.

758
00:52:31,336 --> 00:52:33,016
Maybe we should actually have some Bitcoin in our reserve.

759
00:52:33,676 --> 00:52:36,416
And this could be a corporate, could be an individual, could be a sovereign.

760
00:52:36,596 --> 00:52:38,256
This same logic applies to everyone.

761
00:52:38,736 --> 00:52:41,356
At some point, like for me, we're a business.

762
00:52:41,576 --> 00:52:42,876
We accept Bitcoin, right?

763
00:52:42,876 --> 00:52:46,576
It's not the dominant majority of our sales because most people like to spend their fiat

764
00:52:46,576 --> 00:52:46,956
paper.

765
00:52:47,456 --> 00:52:49,196
But it's a handful of people who want to spend their Bitcoin.

766
00:52:49,336 --> 00:52:50,376
And we will gladly accept it.

767
00:52:50,396 --> 00:52:51,156
And we hang on to it.

768
00:52:51,156 --> 00:52:55,136
So it's kind of like a liquid layer that sits in our reserve mix.

769
00:52:55,756 --> 00:53:04,636
So I think this whole framework of like we all transact in fiat because it's the shit money and we all save in the hard money.

770
00:53:04,756 --> 00:53:06,736
I mean, it's kind of hard to settle.

771
00:53:06,856 --> 00:53:10,596
Let's say you and I wanted to do some kind of sponsorship deal of some form.

772
00:53:11,096 --> 00:53:15,716
It's kind of a pain in the ass for you to send me a gold coin over the postal mail.

773
00:53:15,796 --> 00:53:16,956
It's kind of a shit go.

774
00:53:17,456 --> 00:53:19,196
You could send me a Bitcoin transaction straight away.

775
00:53:19,596 --> 00:53:21,096
This is the way to think about it.

776
00:53:21,156 --> 00:53:23,936
We're talking about what is the right tool for the right job.

777
00:53:24,356 --> 00:53:27,816
For us as a business, having gold is a really bad idea

778
00:53:27,816 --> 00:53:31,056
because I just literally don't want to have gold bars in my house.

779
00:53:31,116 --> 00:53:31,896
It's a terrible idea.

780
00:53:32,596 --> 00:53:34,856
However, with Bitcoin, there's obviously the custody thing

781
00:53:34,856 --> 00:53:35,876
where you can do multi-seed.

782
00:53:35,936 --> 00:53:37,696
You can just move the keys around.

783
00:53:37,816 --> 00:53:39,416
So it's just impossible to steal.

784
00:53:40,356 --> 00:53:40,616
Awesome.

785
00:53:40,936 --> 00:53:41,796
Great treasury asset.

786
00:53:41,996 --> 00:53:43,576
Perfect for that purpose.

787
00:53:44,136 --> 00:53:47,596
So right tool, right job, savings asset,

788
00:53:48,376 --> 00:53:49,836
and global reserve currency.

789
00:53:49,836 --> 00:53:55,736
two separate things. Bitcoin kind of competes on both fronts. Gold really struggles on some of

790
00:53:55,736 --> 00:53:59,716
those elements, even though it's going to have a very important role. So I really do think about

791
00:53:59,716 --> 00:54:04,516
the dollar, Bitcoin and gold as being this trifecta of like those three kind of solve

792
00:54:04,516 --> 00:54:09,996
the problem of money together as a combined unit. They're going to compete. Sometimes one's going to

793
00:54:09,996 --> 00:54:15,356
do better. Sometimes one's going to do worse. But as a collective, that is what I think the world is

794
00:54:15,356 --> 00:54:19,656
going to trend towards just as like where I think the world is going. May not be the world we want,

795
00:54:19,656 --> 00:54:20,736
but I think that's what happens.

796
00:54:21,756 --> 00:54:23,036
So, yeah, with that then,

797
00:54:23,316 --> 00:54:27,476
so the dollar kind of just remains as the currency

798
00:54:27,476 --> 00:54:30,316
just because of all the things you're lining up.

799
00:54:30,316 --> 00:54:30,796
Network effects.

800
00:54:32,016 --> 00:54:32,456
Totally.

801
00:54:33,036 --> 00:54:35,896
If you look at Tether and the Genius Act,

802
00:54:36,736 --> 00:54:39,616
the perfect example, the Genius Act is not a stablecoin bill.

803
00:54:39,936 --> 00:54:41,156
It is a dollar dominance bill.

804
00:54:41,336 --> 00:54:42,876
Alex Thorne brought up that line.

805
00:54:42,916 --> 00:54:43,616
I think it's perfect.

806
00:54:43,936 --> 00:54:45,156
It's a dollar dominance bill.

807
00:54:45,736 --> 00:54:49,576
The reason why people in Turkey use the US dollar via Tether

808
00:54:49,576 --> 00:54:52,096
is because the US dollar has the network effect.

809
00:54:52,536 --> 00:54:58,676
The Turkish government hates it that their citizens

810
00:54:58,676 --> 00:55:01,956
are using someone else's currency.

811
00:55:02,616 --> 00:55:05,156
They chose it because it's the best one for them.

812
00:55:05,195 --> 00:55:09,755
They don't want Bitcoin because they can't do the volatility, but the dollar solves their problem.

813
00:55:09,955 --> 00:55:15,295
So this is the dollar dollarizing the world, whether the foreign governments want it or not.

814
00:55:15,835 --> 00:55:18,875
It's just going to hollow out their economies from the inside out.

815
00:55:18,995 --> 00:55:22,455
And that's going to fund the US to continue to fund their deficit.

816
00:55:22,635 --> 00:55:24,615
So it's perfectly imperial.

817
00:55:24,915 --> 00:55:31,915
If you look at the stablecoin setup, the poorest people in the world are going to fund the debts of the richest people in the world.

818
00:55:32,475 --> 00:55:34,615
It's very, very imperialistic.

819
00:55:34,615 --> 00:55:36,355
It makes all the sense in the world.

820
00:55:37,675 --> 00:55:38,075
Wow.

821
00:55:38,715 --> 00:55:40,855
That actually honestly blew my mind.

822
00:55:40,995 --> 00:55:42,995
I didn't even really think of it that way.

823
00:55:43,095 --> 00:55:44,335
So that's absolutely crazy.

824
00:55:44,795 --> 00:55:47,695
This is why it was the first bill the administration passed.

825
00:55:47,795 --> 00:55:48,915
They didn't dick around with anything else.

826
00:55:48,995 --> 00:55:54,635
They went straight for stable coins, not because it's a stable coin bill, not because they care about crypto, not because they care about Bitcoin.

827
00:55:55,475 --> 00:55:56,175
Dollar dominance.

828
00:55:57,335 --> 00:55:57,535
Yeah.

829
00:55:57,635 --> 00:55:59,195
And I mean, it makes all the sense in the world.

830
00:55:59,195 --> 00:56:05,095
And I mean, I've always thought it's been interesting the way that Trump has talked about Bitcoin over time.

831
00:56:05,535 --> 00:56:13,895
At first, he said, you know, he didn't really like it because he honestly admitted that he's like because it, you know, attacks the dollar dominance.

832
00:56:13,895 --> 00:56:16,655
And he's, you know, an America first kind of president.

833
00:56:16,895 --> 00:56:22,335
And then he kind of was like, oh, you know, I hear a lot of people maybe buying some coffee, doing some other things.

834
00:56:22,335 --> 00:56:24,535
And then now he's like, oh, I like Bitcoin and crypto.

835
00:56:24,535 --> 00:56:33,295
And it's been an interesting little, I guess, flip where, you know, you know, we saw the Bitcoin conference last year in Vegas, or I guess earlier this year in Vegas.

836
00:56:33,295 --> 00:56:43,295
And it was basically the stablecoin conference in a sense where every single governmental person that got on stage was just stablecoin, stablecoin, stablecoin.

837
00:56:43,755 --> 00:56:56,624
And I guess it makes a lot of sense especially you know with everything you lining out here I just never really put it all together I was trying to figure it out I thought maybe it was a backdoor CBDC but it didn seem

838
00:56:56,624 --> 00:56:58,184
You want to dollarize the third world.

839
00:56:58,624 --> 00:56:59,024
It's brilliant.

840
00:56:59,264 --> 00:56:59,364
Yeah.

841
00:56:59,884 --> 00:57:00,704
Yeah, I mean-

842
00:57:00,704 --> 00:57:02,344
And the third world wants to do it too.

843
00:57:02,504 --> 00:57:03,604
So they're working for the government.

844
00:57:03,904 --> 00:57:05,724
It's amazing, amazing to watch.

845
00:57:06,064 --> 00:57:08,384
And this is the Hunger Games of money, right?

846
00:57:08,384 --> 00:57:12,284
The Hunger Games of money is the dollar is in the process

847
00:57:12,284 --> 00:57:14,924
of consuming every other fiat currency.

848
00:57:15,424 --> 00:57:18,604
The Aussie dollar is going to fall a lot later than the Turkish lira.

849
00:57:18,764 --> 00:57:19,964
Turkish lira is going to go first.

850
00:57:20,324 --> 00:57:25,684
How does the Turkish government deal with the fact that their citizens are going to opt out of the lira into the dollar?

851
00:57:26,304 --> 00:57:29,524
And I've been saying this line for a long time, and I think it's a really good mental model.

852
00:57:29,884 --> 00:57:41,284
The quantum leap between the lira, which devalues 50% on every second Tuesday, and the US dollar, that gap between the soundness, the US dollar is still a shit coin.

853
00:57:41,864 --> 00:57:43,364
But the lira is really bad, too.

854
00:57:43,364 --> 00:57:47,784
The quantum leap between the lira and the dollar is the dollar to Bitcoin.

855
00:57:48,624 --> 00:57:54,984
So what we're watching with Turkey over the long arc of time is what's going to happen.

856
00:57:55,504 --> 00:57:58,404
The dollar is going to consume everything and get stronger and stay stronger.

857
00:57:59,044 --> 00:58:02,524
But eventually the dollar is going to have, it's riddled with tumors as well.

858
00:58:02,624 --> 00:58:06,264
And eventually the dollar is going to come to the same point that the lira is at.

859
00:58:06,424 --> 00:58:07,964
And it's going to look at gold and Bitcoin.

860
00:58:08,104 --> 00:58:09,264
Everyone's going to go, I'm out.

861
00:58:10,004 --> 00:58:10,244
Right?

862
00:58:10,244 --> 00:58:12,764
It's going to take a long time, but it depends where you live.

863
00:58:13,364 --> 00:58:46,133
Ah okay Yeah I mean hey I don doubt that at all I think that that basically where we going to get to a hyper Bitcoinized world I don know if we ever see that day I don know checkmate You looking You got a lot better sun in Australia maybe than I do out here But you know with that then I need you to tell me kind of what you see playing out with this next let call it 12 to 18 months I want you to put your you know your maybe your tinfoil hat a little bit with your crystal ball here

864
00:58:46,233 --> 00:58:47,953
Try to predict a little bit of the future.

865
00:58:48,433 --> 00:58:52,093
How do you see this next 12 to 18 months playing out?

866
00:58:52,613 --> 00:58:52,733
Yeah.

867
00:58:52,833 --> 00:58:57,533
So if I was to just have a shot at what I think the next, let's say, 12 months looks like,

868
00:58:57,533 --> 00:59:03,413
I would wager that we probably have more downside across all markets over the next like three months

869
00:59:03,413 --> 00:59:09,513
or so. We will probably hammer out a bottom, as I said, above the 2024 chop solidation range.

870
00:59:09,593 --> 00:59:15,953
I'm a very happy buyer below 95, 85, 82, 80 is kind of where I think a zone of interest,

871
00:59:16,253 --> 00:59:20,893
ETF cost basis and all that. I don't know what kind of bottom it will be, whether it's going to

872
00:59:20,893 --> 00:59:25,213
be like a really sharp V shape or just we've got to hammer it out for a period of time.

873
00:59:25,213 --> 00:59:28,013
but I think we bottom out in a period of months, not years.

874
00:59:28,133 --> 00:59:31,573
So I don't think the concept of like a one year bear market is going to play

875
00:59:31,573 --> 00:59:33,973
out. I think all markets take a hit.

876
00:59:34,333 --> 00:59:37,473
I think they will then reverse very quickly to balance sheet expansion.

877
00:59:38,033 --> 00:59:40,613
I think 2026 is actually going to be kind of crazy.

878
00:59:40,613 --> 00:59:42,813
I think everything's going to move when that happens.

879
00:59:44,393 --> 00:59:46,533
That would be my general base case. So I mean,

880
00:59:46,613 --> 00:59:48,713
I believe Bitcoin is undervalued right now.

881
00:59:48,813 --> 00:59:51,453
I'm a very happy buyer of it. If you're going to give me cheaper prices,

882
00:59:51,453 --> 00:59:52,133
I'm going to take them.

883
00:59:52,293 --> 00:59:54,293
And then I'm going to sit there and just ride this thing higher.

884
00:59:54,293 --> 01:00:01,793
the big risk is that we we sell off we come higher and then we set a macro higher lower high which i

885
01:00:01,793 --> 01:00:07,833
think is probably pretty likely given the scale of this sell-off once we get that you're then going

886
01:00:07,833 --> 01:00:14,273
to have this another big scary ass waterfall just argument's sake we go down to 85 we bounce back to

887
01:00:14,273 --> 01:00:29,642
100 or 105 everyone gets super excited oh the ball back lower high comes right back down maybe it takes 75 maybe it gets down to like 95 or 90 You get this big waterfall that just freaks everyone out

888
01:00:29,642 --> 01:00:31,202
and they go, holy shit, it's over.

889
01:00:32,122 --> 01:00:33,142
That is my deal.

890
01:00:33,402 --> 01:00:34,342
Thank you very much.

891
01:00:34,382 --> 01:00:36,482
I'm going to step in right there because that's the kind of thing

892
01:00:36,482 --> 01:00:38,642
where suddenly you've got a Dalai Lama candle over the course

893
01:00:38,642 --> 01:00:40,882
of six months and you're back at all-time highs.

894
01:00:41,042 --> 01:00:44,002
So my base case is a constructive 2026.

895
01:00:44,882 --> 01:00:47,462
I think we hammer out some kind of a floor in the next six months

896
01:00:47,462 --> 01:00:50,102
and I think a lot of people are going to get taken by surprise.

897
01:00:50,222 --> 01:00:53,582
There'll be a lot of people who sold now thinking,

898
01:00:53,782 --> 01:00:55,382
oh, shit, the four-year cycle's come to bear

899
01:00:55,382 --> 01:00:57,222
and I'll see you in 2027, 2028.

900
01:00:57,782 --> 01:00:59,742
And yeah, they're going to miss the ride.

901
01:01:00,562 --> 01:01:03,082
So a lot of volatility to say the very least, huh?

902
01:01:03,662 --> 01:01:04,342
About time.

903
01:01:04,982 --> 01:01:05,222
Yeah.

904
01:01:05,402 --> 01:01:06,062
All right.

905
01:01:06,182 --> 01:01:08,222
Well, Checkmate, you're an absolute G.

906
01:01:08,322 --> 01:01:10,982
You blew my mind today with this whole stablecoin thing,

907
01:01:10,982 --> 01:01:13,142
so I really appreciate you for that and coming in.

908
01:01:13,162 --> 01:01:13,582
Good, game theory.

909
01:01:14,082 --> 01:01:17,142
Yeah, and sharing all your analysis.

910
01:01:17,462 --> 01:01:22,442
So why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and your great analysis?

911
01:01:22,702 --> 01:01:24,242
Because, hey, man, you're blowing my mind.

912
01:01:24,302 --> 01:01:28,102
I'm sure you're going to be blowing the people that are watching here today, too.

913
01:01:28,742 --> 01:01:29,082
Thanks, mate.

914
01:01:29,162 --> 01:01:31,002
Yeah, you can find us over at checkonchain.com.

915
01:01:31,082 --> 01:01:35,982
We've got the newsletter, which is paid, but where I share all my thoughts and as I develop these ideas.

916
01:01:36,542 --> 01:01:41,042
And then the charting website, which we've got, which, I mean, pretty much every Bitcoin chart you could possibly want.

917
01:01:41,082 --> 01:01:41,842
It's all free.

918
01:01:41,842 --> 01:01:43,722
So you'll find us over at checkonchain.com.

919
01:01:44,542 --> 01:01:44,762
All right.

920
01:01:44,782 --> 01:01:46,262
And I'll put all that in the show notes.

921
01:01:46,522 --> 01:01:47,162
Check, matey.

922
01:01:47,162 --> 01:01:48,282
Appreciate you, brother.

923
01:01:48,942 --> 01:01:49,382
Thanks, man.

924
01:01:49,562 --> 01:01:49,802
Cheers.