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We're going to get to a point where we have two nation states with money printers who are buying Bitcoin hand over fist

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and that's when we're going to see some serious price action come to market

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and this is where when the price is doing what it's doing right now

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you can have one major player basically buying the bid and doing this

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but when there are two major players with money printers doing this

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they can't hide, they will set a floor at whatever price they want to pay for Bitcoin

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Because when you think about it, they're purchasing a hard asset that cannot be duplicated with something they can literally print by holding down their finger on a computer.

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So then what is Bitcoin's price at that point?

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It's probably a 10,000x increase from here would be the expectation.

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bing bong we are back with another edition of the state of bitcoin podcast where i've got the man

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the myth the legend another recurring guest in the house peter dunworth from the bitcoin advisor but

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peter i had to get you on because i mean what do we just hang it up now at this point we crashed to

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60,000. Now the 58K gang is coming back in and it looks like everything's over. So

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are we just being advised to just pack it up and go home or what, man?

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That's what the bears are telling us, right? It's all over for Bitcoin. It's dead again,

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the 400 or 500 obituary that we're reading about Bitcoin. Sadly, I don't think it's that easy.

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And this last couple of weeks with Bitcoin and the relentless selling pressure we've seen, I think, has been really taxing on a lot of Bitcoiners.

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And that fearful 58K gain looks like it's within sights and we might be there sooner than we know.

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Yeah.

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So, I mean, what do you think that the reason for this giant sell-off is?

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because you know the narrative previously like i mean maybe a month or two ago which honestly feels

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like ages ago was that the whales were selling off but there was a lot of institutional buy pressure

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so it didn't bitcoin didn't fall as much as it would have or potentially should have if we didn't

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have as much of the institutions buying up as they were so now we're having that big giant sell-off

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And, you know, before the narrative was like, oh, we'll never see another, you know, 50, 60% drop in Bitcoin.

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But it seems like we're getting it now.

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So what are you seeing out there and what do you think the reasoning for this giant dip is?

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Boy, that's a deep question.

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And I think if I look at how did we get here, I think you can pinpoint that exact moment to the 10th of the 10th with the Binance meltdown and that malfunction or undermining the market makers that happened there.

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Typically, it takes probably three to six months for dead bodies to float to the surface.

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And that's been the narrative that everyone has run with.

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But that's not what's brought us to this point in time.

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I think that has helped.

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And it's never just one thing.

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It's always a confluence of a whole host of things.

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And I look at that might have been what got the party started in this bear market.

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But as the price drops, it creates a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt.

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There's a lot of people who bought Bitcoin with the promise of getting rich very quickly.

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And they just didn't, the material gains didn't realise.

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So they're basically back to not really understanding what they own.

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And the problem with that is, is that if you don't understand what you own,

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You get very fearful when it drops 30%, 40%, 50%.

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And then at the very point in time when you should be buying more

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and allocating heavier to this investment, you end up selling it.

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And this is where the real compounded losses add up,

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that people don't know what they own,

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they don't or didn't really understand what they were getting

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when they bought it.

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And then when it drops, it doesn't live up to the promise

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of instant riches.

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And truth be told, Bitcoin is probably the hardest investment

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to hold because not only does it go up dramatically it also can come crashing down very quickly but

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if you're invested for the long term the fundamental thesis of bitcoin hasn't changed

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and i look at this as just an enormous buying opportunity that we only get to see maybe once

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every four years yeah and and i think the interesting thing i've been doing some digging

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here lately is that if you look at like the wallet distribution in bitcoin it is very similar to

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traditional wealth. And last time when we dipped under 100k, you saw we saw the number of wallets

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with 10 million sats or point one Bitcoin drop, while the number of institutions with 1000 or more

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Bitcoin really shoot up. So you know, do you think that this is ever going to, I guess, change human

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behavior? Are we ever going to unlock it where we just see Bitcoin in that changes how we react and

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not sell off in emotional moments like this? Or is this just, I guess, how things are always going

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to play out? You mean that the question is, can we reprogram that reptilian brain that's been

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millions and millions of years of evolution that basically teaches exactly how not to behave

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in volatile markets? Can we unwind that in a matter of four years and teach everyone on earth?

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Sadly, I think that's a very tall ask. We're not going to be able to achieve that. But

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we can educate ourselves and I think the one of the great gifts that you deliver to the Bitcoin

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community is knowledge expertise and understanding that hopefully you know with some of the discussions

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that we have and your other guests people get to educate themselves about what this is and then

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protect themselves from making bad decisions at precisely the wrong time and this is where I think

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for anyone who's thinking about selling a great mate of both of ours I was catching up with

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yesterday checkmate he said what i was thinking and probably what you're thinking which is now is

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precisely the wrong time to be selling and there's going to be a lot of people out there who just

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cannot deal with the emotional pain of watching this thing go down any further and want it to stop

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and they'll sell and then once everyone's uh done that the market's free to move back up

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yeah so taking that a step further right uh what is going on in the precious metals market

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and how do you think that this could potentially relate to uh bitcoin here going forward because i

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think you know i'm seeing the you know the silver short squeezes all of these different you know

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narratives flowing floating out about uh you know what's going on in the precious metals market and

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And a lot of Bitcoiners did come over from the hard money principles of whether it was being gold bugs or just kind of understanding that aspect.

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And they've moved everything from gold to Bitcoin.

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And now they're like, what the hell happened?

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So what are you seeing in this precious metals market?

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And do you think that some of that capital is going to flow over to Bitcoin here eventually?

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and it's just maybe gold and Peter Schiff is having their day in the sun,

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their one day in the sun for the past, I don't know, 15, 20 years or so.

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I agree with that.

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I think I don't want to take anything away from the doll bugs and silver bugs.

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They've been at this a lot longer than the Bitcoiners have

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when it comes to a sound money standard.

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And I think we should all be on the same team.

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We literally are all on the same team of sound money.

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And so I think this infighting is just we haven't been able to articulate the position of Bitcoin correctly at this point in time.

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But if you look at what's happening in the gold and precious metals markets, we've seen in the last two weeks, we've seen effectively a huge blow off top.

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We've had a parabola, a chart that looks a lot like what a blow off top in Bitcoin looks like.

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That happened in both gold and silver markets.

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And then that was basically followed by a large crash in dollar terms, which is probably two or three times the entire market size or market cap of Bitcoin.

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And I look at that and think this volatility is here to stay and probably reference the Weimar chart of the 1920s and the gold price to the Weimar.

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And not only is it volatile to the upside, but it comes exceptionally volatile to the downside.

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And this is where I think gold and silver were both overbought on any of the momentum indicators that you look at.

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It's not possible to maintain a vertical chart.

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There needs to be some rest in order for the market to recuperate, recover and then go again.

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So this is perfectly normal market behaviour in the short term.

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And in the long term, I think the case for gold over the next few years and silver is very positive.

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And I'm very positive on the gold and silver thesis.

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And I don't think it is in any way competition to Bitcoin.

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I actually think one-on-one makes three when it comes to the gold,

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silver, hard money thesis with respect to Bitcoin.

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Because the larger those market caps go,

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the more opportunity there is for Bitcoin.

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And I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a 10x,

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maybe 100x better asset than gold by way of market cap.

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So I think as Bitcoiners, we should be rooting for gold to be at 25,000 an ounce or 50,000 an ounce, whatever the number, the bigger the better, because not only will, through time, Bitcoin achieve that market cap, but it will surpass it by a factor of probably 10, 20, 30, 40, maybe even 100x bigger than the gold market.

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But it's such a nascent technology, Bitcoin, and it's so misunderstood.

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And there's a lot of education that goes into really understanding this asset.

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And it takes time.

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I just look at my personal journey on this and it took me five years to really understand it and buy Bitcoin before I actually bought some.

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Having been told by my brother to buy it when it was $3, I share that experience because it's the most costly financial mistake of my life.

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But in moments like this, a lot of people don't really understand the total addressable market for Bitcoin, that there is huge upside to it.

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And working with, I guess, the precious metal guys, gold and silver market, it is only beneficial for Bitcoin because at some point in time in the future, Bitcoin will not only reach those levels, but it will surpass them dramatically.

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So I'm happy to see the gold bugs and silver bugs getting a bit on their assets.

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And I long may live.

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Yeah, so, you know, I guess, obviously, we've had a few conversations in the past about Bitcoin going extremely parabolic.

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Does this help, I guess, help you with that theory?

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Just because, I mean, it seems like there's essentially two different, I guess, theories when it comes to Bitcoin price.

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There's that power law model that, you know, the returns are going to be diminishing.

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You know, with that, they said there wasn't going to be as much downside risk, but there wasn't going to be as much upside risk.

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But now that I'm seeing the volatility in the silver market for how much more or how much bigger of a market cap that is, I mean, it's, you know, it's more than double Bitcoin's market cap now.

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And we saw a 30% dip in one day from silver.

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um so you know does you does this kind of i guess almost justify or you think uh help confirm your

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your previous thesis of you know potentially going parabolic at some point and you know seeing uh

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things like really take off to me i think it confirms the parabolic nature of these assets

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and watching the price action of gold and silver over the last week or two it it really confirms

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to me the notion that most people misunderstand the fact that price is determined at the margin.

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So depending on what is available for sale is really going to be determined by what is the price.

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And if you look at the gold and silver markets, they're precious metals. They're required in some

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way, shape or form for some industry, but not really. There's a huge monetary premium to them,

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although that monetary premium is being eaten away by industrial use cases for silver. But

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The price is determined at the margin, and this is where when you have absolute digital scarcity in Bitcoin, only 21 million, you've got a maniac, and I say that in the best possible way, in Saylor, buying as much Bitcoin as he can.

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He's the first and only major corporate to this party.

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He's got 3% of supply.

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What happens when we have nation state competition for this?

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And what happens when there's no physical Bitcoin or digital Bitcoin to deliver and it's all paper contracts?

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What we end up seeing is what happened in March 2022

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in the nickel market.

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We saw a number of traders basically put a position on nickel

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and it set the price of nickel up 300% to 400% in a day.

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And I look at this and think nickel is a fairly innocuous metal.

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It's not rare by any means whatsoever.

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You can mine more of it.

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And what happened there is it effectively risked blowing up

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the London Metals Exchange.

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and meant that the London Metals Exchange had to step in

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and basically make good on some of their market participants

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until the people who benefited from that trade

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that they're not entitled to the profits that they thought they were

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and they're only going to get 40 cents in the dollar on the profit.

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Now, if they hadn't been able to get the profit,

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that would have near bankrupted some of the other market participants.

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Now, for me, all I'm looking at with this gold and silver market

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is that price is determined at the margin.

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That's what every Bitcoiner needs to remember.

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And if we want to make sure and hold these banks accountable

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for paying what they have to when it comes to Bitcoin,

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it's absolutely imperative that every Bitcoiner out there

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self-custodies their Bitcoin

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so that there is no supply available for the banks to manipulate.

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Yeah, and you know what is interesting too is that

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I think I saw somewhere that there's like 356 paper ounces of silver

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for every physical ounce of silver.

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So with a market that there is so much like paper silver just out there, it's still getting

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manipulated this much.

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So if you have your Bitcoin in self-custody, even with, you know, silver being two to three

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X the size of Bitcoin, look at how volatile is this going?

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I mean, I feel like this is just, you know, getting me more bullish seeing how how volatile

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this market is.

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But, you know, what do you think that this points to as far as like the uncertainty in

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the market? Because obviously, we've had a lot of, I guess, let's call it like geopolitical

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meandering back and forth, right? And then we've also had Trump announce a new Fed chair pick. And

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in all that, we saw massive swings. So do you think that this is just, I guess, a symptom of

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the massive amounts of money printing that we've been seeing that, you know, the markets are so

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forward looking that you know and there's just so much money out there that it just swings like this

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or um what do you what else could be the i guess a possible explanation that you see for the reason

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why we're seeing so much volatility in the markets right now i think there's a lot of reasons for

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this uncertainty and i think when when there are huge opportunities there's also huge uncertainty

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We're looking at AI and the disruption that AI brings.

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That potentially completely reroutes what we know as efficient

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or positive businesses.

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For me, I think we have a number of headwinds that we've got

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to get through that aren't going to be around for much longer,

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but my expectation is for the next two to three weeks,

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well, actually probably five to six weeks,

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till the end of March, the end of the first quarter,

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we're going to have a whole host of things weighing over the market.

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And that not only in the Bitcoin market,

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but that in the broader market is a symptom of what we're facing at the moment

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with an unknown new Fed chair.

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I know we've got some short odds on who'll be the favourite to win that,

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but how are they going to deal with it?

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What are they going to do?

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But if we can zoom out a little bit and have a look at what's happening this year

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geopolitically, because I think that's the most important factor

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in what we've got and what's going to influence not only markets,

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but specifically the Bitcoin price.

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We've got the US midterms coming up in November this year.

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And what I think is probably

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one of the truest things I've seen from my experience and love the American

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culture but as an outsider looking in to the US I look at this and think what is one thing that the US love more than anything else To me that a comeback story and so I look at this and I think in an election year or midterm

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year what a great story. Have the market crash into the first quarter, appoint your man, get the

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Fed rolling and all of a sudden you rip back from April through to September, October back to all-time

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highs and you set yourself up for a very positive election season when it comes to the midterms

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because at the moment the Republicans look unelectable

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at this point in time.

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They'll face a landslide.

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So if the mood is dark, there's a high probability

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the Republicans will lose.

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But if the economy rips back, everything's humming,

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manufacturing starts motoring along,

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that reshoring that's been talked of,

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we're going to see a very positive outlook for the US economy

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and I think that bodes well for the Republicans

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and their chances of re-election.

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Yeah, that's interesting.

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I mean, I think that that is kind of almost seems like it's going to be too good to be true, right?

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Because the Fed, the new Fed chair will be coming in in May.

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They're more than likely going to do what Trump wants and pump some more liquidity in the market,

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which in turn will theoretically go to Bitcoin and, you know, we'll start to see a pump,

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which will be coincidentally right around the time where these midterms will come up.

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It seems like it would be too good to be true.

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and I'm going to play devil's advocate with you here, Peter,

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because it seems like every time we think something is going to happen in Bitcoin,

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the opposite has been happening lately.

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Is that because traditional finance is here?

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And it's essentially they've, I guess, financialized Bitcoin in a sense,

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even though, you know, well, we can make the argument Bitcoin,

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it's Bitcoinizing finance.

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But do you think that, I guess it's almost like a symptom of what we saw

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with like the real estate market in 2008,

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It's like when you start financializing some of these products or assets, so to speak, that the volatility is just unavoidable.

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You raise a really good point.

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And this is where TradFi is a big, big world.

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In some respects, yes, totally agree with you on that.

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If you look at, say, the options market, futures, derivatives, those types of markets are having an outsized impact on Bitcoin.

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through paper bitcoin but if you look at and this will be controversial so um to all the bitcoiners

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out there don't throw tomatoes at me on this one it's just hyperbolic hyperbolically speaking um

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you look at the etfs and the flows in and out of it they have been very strong and despite the

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price dropping below the median price of purchase at 82 000 those etf holders have actually been

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quite strong-handed diamond hands when it comes to not selling they haven't sold a huge amount

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yes there's been a little bit of outflow but their median price is 82 we're sitting at 62 or 63k as

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we speak and there hasn't been a huge amount of outflow i think there's been only six percent

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of total outflows from what went in so i look at that and i think there's that bifurcation of that

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tradfire market that etf holders have actually been very good for bitcoin they haven't really

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sold off in a huge amount any more than say retail investors in the spot spot bitcoin so

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there is some nuance to that question and i hope that's gone part way to answering it

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no i mean i think it is it is interesting too because if you look at the etf outflows it just

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simply that they're they're not selling so it is kind of this different kind of of buyer in um and

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i guess that almost relates back to the question we were i asked you earlier about

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you know just the the self-custody uh guys and everybody holding bitcoin essentially

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selling off during these dips um so is this just i i guess the the natural progression in this

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this cycle and uh you know do you think that the four-year cycle narrative now is essentially over

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damn i was a big you know having seen the year close negative i thought oh yes we've slayed that

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demon of the four-year cycle it's over we don't have to worry about that anymore and then i just

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think of that meme with um the grim reaper going door to door about four-year cycles and then the

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four-year cycle popping out and just killing the grim reaper all of a sudden you know four-year

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cycles are back on the table and it's revolving around the halving again and statistically that

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doesn't make any sense when you know the halving of supply every four years um is such a minuscule

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event now in in proportionate terms you know you're having inflation go from two percent to one

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percent is not a big deal but when inflation goes from 50 to 25 five percent it's a huge deal

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i think there are other factors in the market now that make it very different you know institutional

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money geopolitics is playing its hand in it trad fires got a much bigger influence

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and i'd like to say the four-year cycle is not dead but here we are down 40 50 and looking to go

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low on yeah it almost seems like it's uh it's come roaring back man and it's uh it's i i thought too

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like i mean like i said i was i was almost buying into the narrative uh where we wouldn't have as

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big of these dips because we're getting those stronger hands that are essentially you know the

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institutions the governments and all these people like like i mean we were saying we're lying out

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the etf buyers like these are the guys that are like buying this asset for long term um but then

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you know like i said you think you know what's going to go on and happen with bitcoin it comes

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and smacks you right in the face and then we get back down to maybe that 58k gang and we're gonna

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see uh prices maybe potentially touching down there so um you know with this price action where

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it is uh how do you project you know the rest of this year to come on i mean we're recording this

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on February 5th. And I think everybody thought 2025 was going to be a little bit different.

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But now going into 2026, it seems like everybody and the sentiment around Bitcoin

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is honestly the most negative I've seen it since I've been in this space. So

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how are you feeling about it? And where do you think it's going?

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trusted, proven. I think I agree with you on the sentiment being the worst I've seen it. And I mean,

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I've only been around since 2016. So lived through 2018, lived through 2022, lived through FDX,

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lived through China banning Bitcoin mining.

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I've got to say it is the worst I've seen.

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And I think that is because we have the reflection

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on other assets that have been doing really well.

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So it feels a lot worse to Bitcoiners

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than what previous cycles were

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because in previous cycles,

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you had a huge parabolic blow off top.

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You got to take your winnings

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and if it crashed 80%, no big deal.

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But when you barely, you know,

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in inflation adjusted terms,

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beat your previous all-time high,

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and then you drop 60 to 80 percent while other assets like gold are ripping 20 percent in a week

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it it feels really bad and this is where i think it's really important to be patient and put things

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into perspective this is the first time it's happened and it's really important to zoom out

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and have a look at why do you own the asset that you own and this is the important thing of

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understanding what you own when it comes to bitcoin bitcoin in self-custody not in the

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the ETFs or other paper derivatives is an absolute godsend.

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It's the most powerful tool or most powerful monetary tool

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that you can hold and wield.

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You've got full autonomy, full self-sovereignty.

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You have censorship and seizure-resistant money.

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And in a world that's going into possibly the fourth turning,

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which is looking very likely at this point in time,

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that kind of money will have a premium on it.

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And at the moment, we just have a huge discount on that

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because I don't think people really understand what this asset is.

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But again, when people really understand the benefits and the power

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that Bitcoin delivers you from a personal sovereignty perspective,

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this will be a multi-million, if not multi-billion dollar asset.

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Now let's dive into the fourth turning.

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For those who are unfamiliar of that,

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why don't you describe that theory a little bit

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and why do you think it seems like we're trending in that direction?

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Well, the fourth turning basically describes a series of events that lead to the culmination of a breakdown in society in a very meaningful way, where there are periods in time where society grows, society prospers, the prosperity of a society leads to poor decision making, and then the poor decision making ultimately leads to some very bad decisions and the destruction of the institutions that were there previously.

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And this has downstream consequences on all of those participants and citizens involved in it.

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And the TLDR of fourth turning is it's basically a revolution.

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It's burning things to the ground and then rebuilding from the start.

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And when you look around the world, we are seeing the formations of that across the globe.

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There is, I think, huge political instability in parts of the US.

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You have a look through Europe. You've got Macron basically banning Marine Le Pen from entering the presidential race in France.

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You've got the EU stepping in to push a whole host of personal agendas in nation states that have a difference of opinion with Brussels, which looks like cause for revolt.

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and in the UK, which is basically what a lot of Western society

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has got to be grateful for, you look at a whole host

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of those institutions that are rotten to the core.

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Corruption is absolutely rampant all the way to the top

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of the political structure.

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Not only all of their institutions, it looks like their judges

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are running a two-tier justice system and this is the problem,

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that if that doesn't get rectified and the people understand

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what the rules are and the rules are evenly applied to everyone,

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then the citizens basically have a huge revolt and burn the place down.

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And this is where, in that type of situation,

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the one thing that you want to be holding, I believe, is not gold,

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is not silver, and it's probably not Bitcoin in that period.

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You want to be having lead and guns full of it.

354
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So without wanting to be too dark on this,

355
00:28:37,635 --> 00:28:43,195
we're getting much closer to that as a society across the Western world.

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And this is at the same time when we've got Russia doing its thing, China asserting itself as a global dominant player.

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And at the same time, it's questionable.

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And I don't think we're there yet, but a lot of people around the world want to start questioning the power of the US.

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And this is where things start to break and get very interesting very quickly.

360
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Yeah, it seems like we're kind of trending in that direction.

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And I want to dive in because obviously you have a close connection with Australia being from there.

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And it seems like they've kind of taken a turn for the worse and the EU is right there with them.

363
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But it does seem like a lot of people are starting to, I guess, quote unquote, vote with their feet and get out and leave.

364
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do you think that uh i guess we're at a stage where i guess people are able to to take their

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wealth and and leave out of these jurisdictions and and you know when you see the freezing of

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bank accounts the digital ids all of these you know negative and almost like orwellian type of

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tactics that these governments are using to control you know do you think that people are

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just essentially going to bend over and take it at this point? Or do you have some hope that

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some powers that be are going to stop these things from developing as rapidly as they seem to be

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right now? I hope I'm wrong, but history would suggest that when rights are taken, they don't

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hand them back. You have to physically fight for them. And this is a very sad thing. You look at

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the exodus of millionaires, I think there were 12,000 or 13,000 millionaires that left

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the UK for greener pastures, Dubai being the recipient of most of those.

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And I think as our governments understand that they are out of cash, they don't have

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the ability to generate revenue, they've got a bloated government that basically has,

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and if I can just have a rant for one second, a side note here is government economics

377
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and how they portray their input into the national economy

378
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always beggars belief for me in that they can talk

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about government spending adding to GDP.

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And to me, I'm thinking you've taken someone's tax dollars

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and then you've spent them and you're claiming that as GDP

382
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that you've created.

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And we're getting to a tipping point now, I think,

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in a lot of the Western cultures where there are so many people

385
00:31:23,935 --> 00:31:27,995
on the government teat that it tips over to the point

386
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where the working class are basically being taxed to death.

387
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And so if you look at Australia, you look at the UK,

388
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the highest taxpayers are probably walking away

389
00:31:38,175 --> 00:31:41,755
with 40% or less of the income that they generate.

390
00:31:42,215 --> 00:31:43,795
And that to me doesn't seem fair

391
00:31:43,795 --> 00:31:45,975
when you've got a huge welfare state blowing out

392
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and there's runaway spending in that capacity.

393
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I think anyone who's in a position to move

394
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will end up moving to escape that.

395
00:31:55,495 --> 00:32:00,895
So it's really just have a look at the incentives and that will tell you everything that's going to happen.

396
00:32:02,335 --> 00:32:10,695
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, the more craziness we're starting to see globally, I mean, the more that they're essentially just making the case for Bitcoin.

397
00:32:11,095 --> 00:32:23,415
But, you know, when we see essentially, you know, I mean, you were saying a little bit earlier that it might not be the best to have gold, silver or Bitcoin in like the craziness of this fourth turning.

398
00:32:23,415 --> 00:32:27,915
uh you know maybe you need something like lead obviously we don't want to get too grim and get

399
00:32:27,915 --> 00:32:34,555
down that rabbit hole but um you know when we when we're lining out how you know the societies have

400
00:32:34,555 --> 00:32:40,255
just basically been taking a turn it seems like still in a time like this the biggest orange

401
00:32:40,255 --> 00:32:47,895
pillar is going to be price um so you know how can we i guess reach more bitcoin because i mean

402
00:32:47,895 --> 00:32:54,535
it seems like the price is always the the longest standing i guess it's unique because bitcoin's

403
00:32:54,535 --> 00:33:01,895
price is essentially that just the key indicator for adoption in a sense um so it seems like with

404
00:33:01,895 --> 00:33:07,495
the liquidity being sucked out of the market and the sentiment being down and this fourth turning

405
00:33:07,495 --> 00:33:14,295
ahead of us um you know it seems very very grim here but how do we turn more people towards bitcoin

406
00:33:14,295 --> 00:33:19,675
here, Peter? How do we get them back? Is it going to take something like the Fed coming in and

407
00:33:19,675 --> 00:33:24,835
cutting interest rates and pumping a bunch of liquidity and thus Bitcoin price pumping? Or is

408
00:33:24,835 --> 00:33:30,575
there another way that we could get them over? Last bull run, we had exchanges blow up. You saw

409
00:33:30,575 --> 00:33:37,055
FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, you name it. But the true power of Bitcoin is getting it off an exchange

410
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into cold storage. This bull run, I'm trusting Trezor, the company that's been around for over

411
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412
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413
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414
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418
00:34:26,090 --> 00:34:28,430
So do it with the easiest and best way

419
00:34:28,430 --> 00:34:30,170
to get your Bitcoin off exchanges.

420
00:34:30,490 --> 00:34:32,650
So go to the affiliate link down below,

421
00:34:33,090 --> 00:34:34,610
get yourself a Trezor Safe 7

422
00:34:34,610 --> 00:34:38,430
and get your Bitcoin off exchanges in the easiest way possible.

423
00:34:38,770 --> 00:34:39,810
All right, enough from me.

424
00:34:39,910 --> 00:34:40,850
Let's get back to the show.

425
00:34:41,850 --> 00:34:47,010
I think there are a number of ways for us to help people understand Bitcoin.

426
00:34:48,250 --> 00:34:51,150
The first way is to actually get them to get some and use it.

427
00:34:51,530 --> 00:34:55,870
And once they use it, once they see it, they'll understand what that benefit is.

428
00:34:56,350 --> 00:35:00,670
But when you're looking to invest, it's always a relative decision.

429
00:35:01,230 --> 00:35:04,630
I.e., what's the opportunity cost of investing in this versus something else?

430
00:35:04,630 --> 00:35:08,490
and when Bitcoin prices are 40 or 50%

431
00:35:08,490 --> 00:35:11,110
and we've got a whole host of measures

432
00:35:11,110 --> 00:35:13,530
that are wildly positive for Bitcoin,

433
00:35:13,670 --> 00:35:16,630
I look at this and think this is precisely the moment

434
00:35:16,630 --> 00:35:18,130
that people should be looking at Bitcoin

435
00:35:18,130 --> 00:35:20,090
because herein lies the opportunity.

436
00:35:20,090 --> 00:35:22,870
It won't be at a 50% discount for too long.

437
00:35:23,490 --> 00:35:27,490
It will recover through time and by time I mean literally

438
00:35:27,490 --> 00:35:29,330
over the next few months to six months.

439
00:35:29,610 --> 00:35:31,190
We'll be through this bear market.

440
00:35:31,190 --> 00:35:36,810
But this pain that we're all going through at this point in time in the day will look like a distant memory.

441
00:35:37,010 --> 00:35:42,650
And then we'll all start with the means of, oh, I'm not going to buy Bitcoin at 120k.

442
00:35:42,710 --> 00:35:44,490
I'm going to wait for it to go to 50k again.

443
00:35:44,490 --> 00:35:58,130
And this is the problem with Bitcoin in that because it's the wildest, most volatile asset that we've had, it plays havoc on your emotions and your emotional IQ when it comes to or your EQ when it comes to investing.

444
00:35:58,130 --> 00:36:05,070
so in typical markets they might sell off 20% and that's considered a huge blow

445
00:36:05,070 --> 00:36:10,050
considered a bear market in stocks and then people start to look to add positions there

446
00:36:10,050 --> 00:36:15,930
but Bitcoin is more than double that it's nearly triple that the volatility of the stock market

447
00:36:15,930 --> 00:36:21,770
maybe more and that really plays havoc but herein lies the opportunity if you're brave

448
00:36:21,770 --> 00:36:27,470
if you're curious to add or start a position in Bitcoin at this point in time and have that

449
00:36:27,470 --> 00:36:32,170
bill through time. And if I look around at what the alternative is for what you can invest in at

450
00:36:32,170 --> 00:36:37,590
this point in time, the stock market looks fully priced to me. Bonds are uninvestable when it comes

451
00:36:37,590 --> 00:36:42,930
to the inflation rate and the debasement. And I think bonds would have to be paying over 15%

452
00:36:42,930 --> 00:36:48,170
per annum in order for me to get excited and wanting to put money to work there. And that

453
00:36:48,170 --> 00:36:53,790
would have to be a net 15%, not a gross 15%. So the chance of that happening anytime sooner,

454
00:36:53,790 --> 00:36:57,530
well, let's hope not, not really possible.

455
00:36:57,890 --> 00:37:00,950
And then you look at the property market in the US, UK, Australia,

456
00:37:01,150 --> 00:37:03,410
Canada, New Zealand, property's cooked.

457
00:37:03,830 --> 00:37:05,970
It's really, really hard to make money in property.

458
00:37:05,970 --> 00:37:10,230
The notion and the promise that we're all delivered

459
00:37:10,230 --> 00:37:13,530
or that we're all told around property, just buy property,

460
00:37:13,630 --> 00:37:15,450
get on the property ladder and then buy your next one,

461
00:37:15,510 --> 00:37:16,030
the next one.

462
00:37:16,330 --> 00:37:19,730
I think that that social contract is broken when it comes to property.

463
00:37:19,870 --> 00:37:23,390
So I look at, for everyone who's thinking about Bitcoin,

464
00:37:23,790 --> 00:37:27,950
why don't you actually study the other alternative investment options that you've got

465
00:37:27,950 --> 00:37:34,430
and then come back to Bitcoin and realizing how limited the opportunities are in every other asset

466
00:37:34,430 --> 00:37:40,730
class. And I'm still confident that over the next 10 years, we're going to see somewhere between a

467
00:37:40,730 --> 00:37:47,170
50 to 100x return in Bitcoin over the next 10 years. And that those type of returns is something

468
00:37:47,170 --> 00:37:54,210
that you just don't get in any other asset yeah um and i and i think it is going to be something

469
00:37:54,210 --> 00:37:58,690
where we start to see it go parabolic and like we were lining it out earlier i mean the silver

470
00:37:58,690 --> 00:38:04,930
market just proves that this is this is like full-fledged possibility here in in the near

471
00:38:04,930 --> 00:38:11,730
future and you know when we see the development of how this space is i guess playing out with the

472
00:38:11,730 --> 00:38:17,030
institutions coming in and you know the potential governments um you know we also had you know your

473
00:38:17,030 --> 00:38:21,830
your friend check matey also friend of the program here last time he was on he was telling me that

474
00:38:21,830 --> 00:38:27,890
there's some big governments buying up bitcoin and you know there has to be some multiple uh

475
00:38:27,890 --> 00:38:33,010
of these big players doing this do you still think that that is happening and that maybe there's some

476
00:38:33,010 --> 00:38:38,770
fishiness going on in the back end or maybe it's who knows maybe the guys over at blackrock or maybe

477
00:38:38,770 --> 00:38:44,850
some of these governments trying to dump in order to try to accumulate lower or or something along

478
00:38:44,850 --> 00:38:50,450
those lines do you think that there is some sort of price manipulation going on right now it's

479
00:38:50,450 --> 00:38:56,770
always a boogeyman when we're in a bear market yes exactly i have to point to somebody we need to find

480
00:38:56,770 --> 00:39:01,650
someone who are we going to blame for our misery right now who on earth can take this who is

481
00:39:01,650 --> 00:39:07,410
responsible let's find them and lynch them um i say that jokingly because it is always the way and

482
00:39:07,410 --> 00:39:14,130
nine times out of ten it's it's never that it's just markets acting in unison you know basically

483
00:39:14,130 --> 00:39:19,310
mass hysteria people acting literally at the same point in time you know what we're seeing in the

484
00:39:19,310 --> 00:39:24,950
market where bitcoin's off 11 12 13 percent in a day what you've got is just a confluence of

485
00:39:24,950 --> 00:39:31,270
mass hysteria where people are acting individually running to the doors for exit and creating what

486
00:39:31,270 --> 00:39:37,930
looks to be a coordinated conspiracy to send the price of Bitcoin lower. But it's never a

487
00:39:37,930 --> 00:39:42,610
conspiracy on the way up. It's always, oh, this is what market demand meeting supply looks like.

488
00:39:42,610 --> 00:39:49,930
So I say that facetiously. I don't think there is anything untoward there. I think what we will

489
00:39:49,930 --> 00:39:55,250
find at some point in time in the future is we're going to get to a point where we have two nation

490
00:39:55,250 --> 00:40:00,150
states with money printers who are buying Bitcoin hand over fist. And that's when we're going to see

491
00:40:00,150 --> 00:40:03,290
some serious price action come to market.

492
00:40:03,450 --> 00:40:07,790
And this is where when the price is doing what it's doing right now,

493
00:40:08,490 --> 00:40:13,430
you can have one major player basically buying the bid and doing this.

494
00:40:13,990 --> 00:40:16,930
But when there are two major players with money printers doing this,

495
00:40:17,350 --> 00:40:18,190
they can't hide.

496
00:40:18,310 --> 00:40:20,710
They will set a floor at whatever price they want to pay for Bitcoin

497
00:40:20,710 --> 00:40:24,870
because when you think about it, they're purchasing a hard asset

498
00:40:24,870 --> 00:40:28,750
that cannot be, I guess, duplicated with something

499
00:40:28,750 --> 00:40:31,930
they can literally print by holding down their finger on a computer.

500
00:40:32,990 --> 00:40:35,050
Once this realization dawns on people,

501
00:40:35,910 --> 00:40:38,430
we're going to have a nation state competition for Bitcoin

502
00:40:38,430 --> 00:40:41,370
and price will literally become irrelevant then.

503
00:40:42,630 --> 00:40:45,490
Do you think, because I mean, Kevin Warsh,

504
00:40:45,610 --> 00:40:50,070
obviously he is the nomination for the new Fed chair.

505
00:40:50,770 --> 00:40:53,330
So whether or not that comes true, I guess time will tell.

506
00:40:53,530 --> 00:40:58,330
But he has been, you know, on record saying very positive things

507
00:40:58,330 --> 00:41:04,570
about Bitcoin, but also on record, which kind of sent the markets in a tizzy here of being very

508
00:41:04,570 --> 00:41:10,690
hawkish and not wanting to lower rates to help make sure that we're fighting inflation. But

509
00:41:10,690 --> 00:41:16,350
obviously, he's Trump's guy. He's probably going to come in and conduct QE. Do you think that this

510
00:41:16,350 --> 00:41:22,530
nomination or this could be hinting towards potentially the US printing money in a sense

511
00:41:22,530 --> 00:41:25,750
with QE and buying Bitcoin here in the next few months?

512
00:41:27,190 --> 00:41:30,270
I think it's going to be whatever is in the best interest of the US.

513
00:41:31,010 --> 00:41:35,010
And I think he is really Bessent's guy.

514
00:41:35,630 --> 00:41:38,770
And so he and Bessent are going to have to work really closely together.

515
00:41:39,330 --> 00:41:43,830
And I look at the influence that Stan Druckenmiller's had on the market

516
00:41:43,830 --> 00:41:46,570
where Bessent worked for Druckenmiller.

517
00:41:46,890 --> 00:41:49,530
It looks like the new Fed chair will have worked for him as well.

518
00:41:49,530 --> 00:41:54,850
those cars understand both sides of the fence when it comes to you know government politic and

519
00:41:54,850 --> 00:42:01,090
you know real world application to it so yes he may look all shit hawkish but a hawkish

520
00:42:01,090 --> 00:42:06,550
environment should actually be very positive for bitcoin because if you you look at the second

521
00:42:06,550 --> 00:42:12,150
order consequences of what a hawkish fed looks like that means they're going to want to reassure

522
00:42:12,150 --> 00:42:17,110
the balance sheet they're going to want to recapitalize the financial markets and i look at

523
00:42:17,110 --> 00:42:20,450
what is the fastest way to recapitalise the financial markets that we have?

524
00:42:20,630 --> 00:42:23,870
And that is Bitcoin because you can't use property to do it

525
00:42:23,870 --> 00:42:25,530
because we've got a cost of living crisis.

526
00:42:25,850 --> 00:42:28,290
You can't use the stock market to inflate

527
00:42:28,290 --> 00:42:31,790
because you're already running at a 20 to 30 times price earnings multiple.

528
00:42:32,350 --> 00:42:34,050
By definition, you can't print more money

529
00:42:34,050 --> 00:42:35,450
because it only adds to the problem.

530
00:42:35,550 --> 00:42:36,430
It doesn't solve it.

531
00:42:37,070 --> 00:42:39,770
And so the alternative is you pump Bitcoin,

532
00:42:40,090 --> 00:42:42,470
you send that thing to a million or 10 million bucks a coin.

533
00:42:42,710 --> 00:42:46,690
You make a very small number of cypherpunks and nerds

534
00:42:46,690 --> 00:42:54,110
very, very wealthy and you avoid economic collapse. To me, a hawkish Fed on the face of it looks

535
00:42:54,110 --> 00:42:58,130
really bad for Bitcoin, but long term, I actually think it's very, very good for Bitcoin because

536
00:42:58,130 --> 00:43:02,910
he'll want to make sure that the debt crisis or the debt problem that we've got at the moment

537
00:43:02,910 --> 00:43:08,810
is that they solve the collateral crisis that accompanies that. And this is where I haven't

538
00:43:08,810 --> 00:43:13,390
seen anyone talking about the collateral crisis. Everyone wants to harp on about, oh, we've got a

539
00:43:13,390 --> 00:43:19,610
debt problem, debt problem. Debt is only a problem if you have no collateral to take to recover your

540
00:43:19,610 --> 00:43:24,070
debt. And so the debt's only a problem because there's no collateral. And I look at this and

541
00:43:24,070 --> 00:43:30,650
think Bitcoin is the ideal asset to recapitalize the financial markets and have as the collateral

542
00:43:30,650 --> 00:43:35,370
for the world because it's globally ubiquitous. There's no downstream consequences for Main

543
00:43:35,370 --> 00:43:39,810
Street. If the price goes to 10 million tomorrow, it's not going to affect inflation. It's not going

544
00:43:39,810 --> 00:43:45,510
affect housing affordability it's not going to affect the cost of living crisis it's going to

545
00:43:45,510 --> 00:43:50,650
be a net benefit to society and it solves a huge problem that we have which is there's no collateral

546
00:43:50,650 --> 00:43:58,350
in the system we're effectively insolvent yeah so then with this uh i guess bitcoin help uh prop

547
00:43:58,350 --> 00:44:03,590
up the fiat system to a point where uh it won't fail you think because it'll help with this

548
00:44:03,590 --> 00:44:10,670
collateral crisis that we're in? I think it can. It just needs to grow into an unimaginable size

549
00:44:10,670 --> 00:44:14,930
in order to deliver that because there's still going to be volatility, but you just need Bitcoin

550
00:44:14,930 --> 00:44:20,390
to grow into a size where it is so huge it accounts for realistically probably 70, 80,

551
00:44:20,470 --> 00:44:25,310
90% of all assets in the world will be denominated or will revolve around Bitcoin.

552
00:44:26,050 --> 00:44:32,850
And so the housing market, the bond market, the stock market will be probably maybe 10% of the

553
00:44:32,850 --> 00:44:38,610
size of the total Bitcoin market. And that's what makes sense to me. This bull run, I'm looking for

554
00:44:38,610 --> 00:44:44,230
ways to stack Bitcoin in my sleep and mining has always caught my eye. I've partnered with the guys

555
00:44:44,230 --> 00:44:50,290
over at Simple Mining to help you do just that. I don't recommend anything that I don't use

556
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personally. So I've got a machine up and running with them right this second. And they've even

557
00:44:55,390 --> 00:45:03,210
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558
00:45:03,210 --> 00:45:08,850
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559
00:45:08,970 --> 00:45:14,630
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560
00:45:14,630 --> 00:45:20,890
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561
00:45:20,890 --> 00:45:27,110
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562
00:45:27,450 --> 00:45:29,890
All right, enough from me. Let's get back to the show.

563
00:45:32,830 --> 00:45:38,270
So then what is Bitcoin's price at that point? That's like, you know, maybe a trillion dollar

564
00:45:38,270 --> 00:45:46,730
coin. It's probably a 10,000 X increase from here would be the expectation. My goodness. Well,

565
00:45:46,730 --> 00:45:48,450
Well, okay, well, there we go.

566
00:45:48,450 --> 00:45:50,030
I'm not fast with the numbers to tell you exactly what that is.

567
00:45:50,110 --> 00:45:51,570
I know it just needs to go up a lot.

568
00:45:51,650 --> 00:45:55,390
And this is where for anyone looking at the investments that are out there,

569
00:45:55,390 --> 00:45:59,650
when you realise that, hey, there's limited upside with property,

570
00:45:59,890 --> 00:46:03,030
limited upside with stocks, limited upside with bonds,

571
00:46:03,250 --> 00:46:04,390
they're almost uninvestable.

572
00:46:04,650 --> 00:46:08,490
The commodities markets just had a blow off top like we haven't seen

573
00:46:08,490 --> 00:46:09,930
in 30 years or more.

574
00:46:11,290 --> 00:46:14,550
All of a sudden, Bitcoin looks really good at a 50% discount

575
00:46:14,550 --> 00:46:15,970
to where it was three months ago.

576
00:46:16,730 --> 00:46:37,030
Yeah, I mean, well, at the end of the day, right, I mean, Bitcoin is going to absorb a lot of these markets. And I mean, we've heard Saylor kind of talk about the $300 trillion bond market, the $145 trillion fixed income market. I think since the last time you've come on, he's brought up the $200 trillion credit market.

577
00:46:37,650 --> 00:46:42,770
Obviously, there's people building products to help take in some of that real estate market.

578
00:46:43,250 --> 00:46:48,510
Now, watching all of these and looking at all of these different markets, I mean, they're huge numbers.

579
00:46:49,890 --> 00:46:54,350
How quickly do you think Bitcoin will start to swallow up some of these markets?

580
00:46:54,350 --> 00:46:57,110
Do you think it's going to be slower than we expect?

581
00:46:57,650 --> 00:47:01,870
Or do you think like, hey, we're going to turn around and you're going to be like, what the hell just happened?

582
00:47:01,870 --> 00:47:08,370
And how did we get to Bitcoin from crashing and burning to 50,000 to all of a sudden a million a coin here?

583
00:47:09,250 --> 00:47:14,630
If I can use a historical example, which I think is the closest thing we have to it.

584
00:47:14,990 --> 00:47:20,190
I look at the work that Larry Fink did in the early 80s, building out that mortgage-backed security market.

585
00:47:21,190 --> 00:47:24,990
That market was built to tokenize the U.S. housing market.

586
00:47:24,990 --> 00:47:28,570
It was to financialize, tokenize it, whatever you want to call it.

587
00:47:28,570 --> 00:47:40,410
And that took Larry the better part of 20 years to really financialize that and have that totally ingratiated into the traditional financial system, starting from zero.

588
00:47:41,310 --> 00:47:48,170
Bitcoin's 17 years old and we're only two years into the ETFs.

589
00:47:49,290 --> 00:47:53,330
So all of a sudden, we're just over two years into the ETFs.

590
00:47:53,330 --> 00:48:05,430
I think we've got another 10 to 15 years before it gets to the size where it's a meaningful component of the broader financial system and ingratiating itself into that lot, that lead role as pristine collateral.

591
00:48:06,390 --> 00:48:20,670
There's a lot of education that needs to take place between now and then, but I look at this as a way of solving a real issue because the alternative to solving this collateral crisis that we've got is we basically have a war and then we have a debt jubilee at the end of it.

592
00:48:20,670 --> 00:48:30,870
And truth be told, I've seen enough killing in the Ukraine and Russia that I don't want to see young men go to war for old men's fights when we have a solution that can solve that problem peacefully.

593
00:48:31,650 --> 00:48:35,250
And the only side effect of it is you just make a few people really rich.

594
00:48:36,990 --> 00:48:39,630
And those few people are the Bitcoin OG whales?

595
00:48:40,730 --> 00:48:40,990
Yeah.

596
00:48:42,150 --> 00:48:45,350
I mean, hey, would it be the worst thing in the world, huh?

597
00:48:45,350 --> 00:48:54,370
I mean, I wish I was an OG whale, but hey, I don't think it would be, you know, necessarily, like I said, the worst possible aspect of this.

598
00:48:54,370 --> 00:49:04,870
But if we don't solve this collateral crisis, if, let's say, we're playing on the other side of things, if they don't see Bitcoin as the pristine collateral, right?

599
00:49:04,950 --> 00:49:14,990
I mean, because I think there is that risk that as Bitcoiners, we're starting to see with the governments not really embracing Bitcoin as fast as maybe we thought, right?

600
00:49:14,990 --> 00:49:17,910
I mean, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, there was no buys.

601
00:49:18,390 --> 00:49:24,190
There's the Genius Act that passed essentially just to get stable coins to buy up all the UST bills.

602
00:49:25,050 --> 00:49:33,370
I mean, it seems like the US is still using a lot of, let's say, crypto products to try to prop up its own dollar and pay its own debt.

603
00:49:33,790 --> 00:49:35,510
Now, what is it going to take?

604
00:49:35,510 --> 00:49:38,570
Like, are we going to get into that debt spiral that, you know,

605
00:49:38,650 --> 00:49:41,490
James Lavish and Lynn Alden have essentially been talking about

606
00:49:41,490 --> 00:49:46,710
for quite some time before we can solve this collateral crisis?

607
00:49:48,810 --> 00:49:50,390
Very possibly we could.

608
00:49:50,690 --> 00:49:53,190
And this is where, like, two great names in the industry.

609
00:49:53,330 --> 00:49:56,710
I absolutely love James' work and think he's one of the best.

610
00:49:57,310 --> 00:50:00,370
And Lynn is an all-time great who I've learned so much from.

611
00:50:00,530 --> 00:50:04,570
So I'd prefer not to be put on the spot about disagreeing with them,

612
00:50:04,570 --> 00:50:05,530
if that's okay.

613
00:50:05,990 --> 00:50:06,390
Yeah.

614
00:50:06,930 --> 00:50:09,050
I think they'll be proven right.

615
00:50:09,490 --> 00:50:12,870
However, there is a scenario where there could be a situation

616
00:50:12,870 --> 00:50:15,370
where the debt isn't a major problem.

617
00:50:15,370 --> 00:50:19,470
And if we bring this back to what I see the use case as being

618
00:50:19,470 --> 00:50:21,850
for Bitcoin as a store of value, medium exchange,

619
00:50:21,950 --> 00:50:25,450
and unit of account, we have a burgeoning technology

620
00:50:25,450 --> 00:50:30,550
that is just in its very infancy in the AI economy

621
00:50:30,550 --> 00:50:31,390
that's kicking off.

622
00:50:31,390 --> 00:50:41,170
And we saw last week some of the work that Marty Bent's done talking about AI and what currency systems, what payment systems they want to use.

623
00:50:41,230 --> 00:50:53,785
It all going to revolve around Bitcoin The interesting thing about that is is that the collateral crisis is really a store of value problem that we solving for and maybe a unit of account But this AI economy

624
00:50:53,785 --> 00:51:01,485
has the ability to be exponentially larger than our existing economy. And if the AI infrastructure

625
00:51:01,485 --> 00:51:07,585
and ecosystem agrees that Bitcoin is the only way they want payment made, that's going to take care

626
00:51:07,585 --> 00:51:09,565
of itself as far as value accretion goes.

627
00:51:10,005 --> 00:51:14,146
So the need for solving the collateral crisis won't really be a big issue

628
00:51:14,146 --> 00:51:15,305
and to sort of put a bow on this.

629
00:51:16,045 --> 00:51:18,885
You will effectively solve this problem by growing out of it

630
00:51:18,885 --> 00:51:22,585
so the debt will become meaningless relative to the productivity gains

631
00:51:22,585 --> 00:51:23,065
that you have.

632
00:51:23,065 --> 00:51:27,205
And we've seen Elon Musk talk about a, well, Trump talking about a 6%

633
00:51:27,205 --> 00:51:30,126
to 8% GDP growth in the next year.

634
00:51:30,245 --> 00:51:32,205
I thought that was wild, totally unachievable,

635
00:51:32,285 --> 00:51:35,185
and then we see a number with a five-handle in front of it

636
00:51:35,185 --> 00:51:36,465
and now I'm starting to believe.

637
00:51:36,465 --> 00:51:39,665
By the way, I'll just make one quick side note.

638
00:51:39,905 --> 00:51:41,025
Never bet against America.

639
00:51:42,085 --> 00:51:44,045
That's the most important thing you can see.

640
00:51:44,385 --> 00:51:49,345
So if that happens, Trump's talking about a 6% to 8% GDP.

641
00:51:51,185 --> 00:51:53,725
Elon's talking about, well, we could get double digits,

642
00:51:53,805 --> 00:51:55,945
which is over 10, and in the next few years,

643
00:51:55,985 --> 00:51:58,685
we could get triple digits, which is 100% GDP growth.

644
00:52:00,405 --> 00:52:02,165
This sounds completely fanciful,

645
00:52:02,165 --> 00:52:05,325
but I've learned to never bet against America

646
00:52:05,325 --> 00:52:08,626
and never doubt the richest man in the world and what he can achieve

647
00:52:08,626 --> 00:52:11,925
because he's got a track record of proving everyone wrong.

648
00:52:12,945 --> 00:52:19,325
Yeah, it's really interesting that you're lining this out as an Aussie here

649
00:52:19,325 --> 00:52:22,445
because I always kind of resonated with that, right?

650
00:52:22,505 --> 00:52:26,085
Never bet against America because we have just some of the greatest entrepreneurs

651
00:52:26,085 --> 00:52:27,585
and growing out of this.

652
00:52:27,585 --> 00:52:34,126
But to be honest, before these past like two weeks or so, I wasn't the biggest.

653
00:52:34,126 --> 00:52:41,525
I mean, I've used AI for a while, but the developments that are happening right now are

654
00:52:41,525 --> 00:52:46,265
something, some of the most crazy things that I've ever seen. And I think, you know, we're seeing the

655
00:52:46,265 --> 00:52:52,285
markets kind of scream at it, that software companies are essentially dying down. And, you

656
00:52:52,285 --> 00:52:57,025
know, any company, like maybe we see this AI boom, and I've been in the theory that we've almost been

657
00:52:57,025 --> 00:53:01,965
in this bubble. But I actually think that there is a chance that we build this way out now with the

658
00:53:01,965 --> 00:53:07,725
developments of like clodbot and all of these different things where i'm actually pretty

659
00:53:07,725 --> 00:53:14,865
optimistic that it there is a greener pastures here do you see it as potential the potential

660
00:53:14,865 --> 00:53:19,565
of having that that ai bubble because it seems like everybody's been screaming about it for years

661
00:53:19,565 --> 00:53:25,885
but like with this recent development i mean you know you you mentioned marty um you know him

662
00:53:25,885 --> 00:53:31,025
lining out on how he's using clodbot and and all of these different things like is there a possibility

663
00:53:31,025 --> 00:53:37,265
that this growing out goes so quickly that eventually AI is just,

664
00:53:37,345 --> 00:53:40,905
I guess, almost a commonplace in replacing a lot of workers

665
00:53:40,905 --> 00:53:45,646
and everything is just so efficient that we're reaching that utopia

666
00:53:45,646 --> 00:53:49,885
that Bitcoiners have envisioned as the Bitcoin future.

667
00:53:50,685 --> 00:53:52,045
I really hope so.

668
00:53:52,166 --> 00:53:53,705
But to one of our points earlier,

669
00:53:53,705 --> 00:53:58,005
we really need to rewire millions of years of thinking

670
00:53:58,005 --> 00:54:01,805
in that absolute reptilian brain that we have

671
00:54:01,805 --> 00:54:04,646
that we need to be of an abundance mindset

672
00:54:04,646 --> 00:54:07,985
and realise that, hey, everyone can have anything they want.

673
00:54:08,126 --> 00:54:09,845
They just can't have everything they want.

674
00:54:10,485 --> 00:54:13,185
And this is to the point we made earlier about, you know,

675
00:54:13,785 --> 00:54:14,945
never bet against America.

676
00:54:15,185 --> 00:54:17,945
America is fantastic when it's a strong place

677
00:54:17,945 --> 00:54:20,646
and if any country can do it, it is America.

678
00:54:21,045 --> 00:54:23,465
There's the greatest entrepreneurs on earth,

679
00:54:23,885 --> 00:54:27,106
the greatest capital markets, the ability to create things

680
00:54:27,106 --> 00:54:28,285
that we could only dream of.

681
00:54:28,805 --> 00:54:30,565
And it's really important, I think,

682
00:54:30,606 --> 00:54:32,065
to have a positive, hopeful attitude

683
00:54:32,065 --> 00:54:34,265
in what we can achieve moving forward

684
00:54:34,265 --> 00:54:37,725
because the alternative is assuring the result

685
00:54:37,725 --> 00:54:39,525
is to be a negative one.

686
00:54:39,965 --> 00:54:42,205
Whereas having a hopeful, constructive outlook

687
00:54:42,205 --> 00:54:44,205
of what is possible into the future,

688
00:54:45,405 --> 00:54:47,985
even if you fall 50% short,

689
00:54:48,405 --> 00:54:49,725
it's still an amazing outcome

690
00:54:49,725 --> 00:54:51,705
that's significantly better than where we are now.

691
00:54:51,705 --> 00:54:56,705
And this is where, as someone who has benefited greatly

692
00:54:56,705 --> 00:55:01,985
from our country or my nation state's great relationship with the US.

693
00:55:02,646 --> 00:55:04,885
I want the US to be a powerhouse and strong.

694
00:55:05,005 --> 00:55:07,345
And I think the world is better for it.

695
00:55:08,525 --> 00:55:11,525
Yeah, I mean, hey, I'm all for that as well.

696
00:55:11,666 --> 00:55:13,445
I mean, I always tell everybody,

697
00:55:13,565 --> 00:55:18,905
even though you see in the media that people rip on Americans

698
00:55:18,905 --> 00:55:20,666
and policy like that,

699
00:55:20,666 --> 00:55:23,606
I truly believe everybody secretly does love America

700
00:55:23,606 --> 00:55:25,965
and it's just a better place when it does.

701
00:55:25,965 --> 00:55:32,685
maybe that's just the red-blooded American in me. But I think when America is thriving,

702
00:55:32,885 --> 00:55:40,325
the world's a great place. So hopefully we start to see that. But taking it a step farther,

703
00:55:40,525 --> 00:55:45,865
right? I mean, we did have JD Vance and I think it was Besant as well, kind of saying that Bitcoin

704
00:55:45,865 --> 00:55:53,445
needs to be a vital part of how the US grows out of this. We haven't seen them buy any Bitcoin yet.

705
00:55:53,445 --> 00:56:00,545
Do you think that we're actually going to do it or are they going to do this budget neutral way that they've been describing for quite some time?

706
00:56:00,925 --> 00:56:05,385
One of my absolute favorite things about Bitcoin is meeting all of you in person.

707
00:56:05,606 --> 00:56:12,685
So mark your calendars for February 28th and come down to where I've called home for the past eight years, Tampa, Florida.

708
00:56:13,385 --> 00:56:16,685
The Bitcoin Bay Foundation is putting on the sound money soiree.

709
00:56:16,785 --> 00:56:18,025
It's the third annual.

710
00:56:18,425 --> 00:56:22,705
It's a night of Bitcoin, poker, an open bar and a silent auction.

711
00:56:23,325 --> 00:56:29,166
All support will go to Bitcoin Bay, a nonprofit that is creating a circular economy down in Tampa Bay, Florida.

712
00:56:29,606 --> 00:56:32,065
They're doing absolutely great things.

713
00:56:32,065 --> 00:56:36,166
And it's the Bitcoin community that I've called home for such a long time.

714
00:56:36,166 --> 00:56:38,565
And these guys are absolutely crushing it.

715
00:56:38,626 --> 00:56:40,825
So please do anything you can to support.

716
00:56:40,825 --> 00:56:42,065
Buy your tickets today.

717
00:56:42,205 --> 00:56:47,065
You can use promo code GREENCANDLE to get 10% off your Sound Money Soiree tickets.

718
00:56:47,205 --> 00:56:48,905
So do you know anything about Bitcoin?

719
00:56:49,225 --> 00:56:49,545
No.

720
00:56:49,545 --> 00:56:52,025
You guys can come down and see this ugly mug.

721
00:56:52,425 --> 00:56:54,106
Come boogie on the dance floor, shake it.

722
00:56:54,225 --> 00:56:57,485
And now that Bitcoin's over 100K, you can do it all with your girlfriends.

723
00:56:58,425 --> 00:56:59,365
All right, enough for me.

724
00:56:59,445 --> 00:57:00,425
Let's get back to the show.

725
00:57:05,146 --> 00:57:07,065
No, I think they'll be more overt with it.

726
00:57:07,405 --> 00:57:09,666
They're just getting their ducks in a row between now and then.

727
00:57:10,185 --> 00:57:13,425
They'll come out and be buying it.

728
00:57:13,425 --> 00:57:19,065
I think one thing that may have been happening as well internally within the government,

729
00:57:19,065 --> 00:57:22,385
I think there may have been a whole host of government agencies

730
00:57:22,385 --> 00:57:26,065
selling their Bitcoin so that they didn't have to hand it over

731
00:57:26,065 --> 00:57:27,985
to the Treasury.

732
00:57:28,805 --> 00:57:31,985
And the Treasury's not asking for US dollars back

733
00:57:31,985 --> 00:57:33,545
because they can print whatever they want on that,

734
00:57:33,606 --> 00:57:34,925
but they've been asking for the Bitcoin.

735
00:57:35,225 --> 00:57:38,005
So sort of just a side note, that might have been adding

736
00:57:38,005 --> 00:57:42,146
to this downward sell pressure that we've seen at this point in time.

737
00:57:43,205 --> 00:57:46,626
So you think it's like maybe the DOJ or the FBI

738
00:57:46,626 --> 00:57:50,146
or some one of these entities instead of keeping the seized Bitcoin

739
00:57:50,146 --> 00:57:51,585
that they've actually sold it off?

740
00:57:51,646 --> 00:57:52,985
Is that what you're telling me here, Peter?

741
00:57:53,945 --> 00:57:56,965
Look, if I'm running one of those entities under the government

742
00:57:56,965 --> 00:58:00,325
and I get to keep the cash that I've got or I've got to hand over the Bitcoin,

743
00:58:00,685 --> 00:58:03,325
I'm selling it in a heartbeat to keep that within my control.

744
00:58:03,685 --> 00:58:04,765
That's just human nature.

745
00:58:04,945 --> 00:58:06,905
So that's what they're doing.

746
00:58:07,146 --> 00:58:09,365
I've got no doubt that it'd be in place.

747
00:58:09,365 --> 00:58:12,505
And I haven't seen an executive order or a government mandate

748
00:58:12,505 --> 00:58:16,465
saying that any Bitcoin that you've got explicitly cannot be sold

749
00:58:16,465 --> 00:58:18,425
and we want to take control of it.

750
00:58:18,585 --> 00:58:20,685
So until I see something like that,

751
00:58:20,825 --> 00:58:23,825
I think Occam's raise, it tells you that

752
00:58:23,825 --> 00:58:27,885
the most likely outcome is probably the obvious one.

753
00:58:28,405 --> 00:58:30,146
I know what I'd be doing in that situation

754
00:58:30,146 --> 00:58:32,085
if my budget depended on it.

755
00:58:32,166 --> 00:58:33,565
I'd be selling the Bitcoin immediately

756
00:58:33,565 --> 00:58:36,445
and I'd be keeping control of the cash

757
00:58:36,445 --> 00:58:38,965
because at least you've got the cash

758
00:58:38,965 --> 00:58:40,725
even though you don't have the Bitcoin.

759
00:58:41,525 --> 00:58:44,146
Yeah, that's fair and I wouldn't doubt it either.

760
00:58:44,325 --> 00:58:45,305
I mean, at the end of the day,

761
00:58:45,305 --> 00:58:50,805
these governmental entities, they want to keep as much money as they can, whether that's at the end

762
00:58:50,805 --> 00:58:57,445
of the day, that the money is the lever to keep control of that power. But, you know, with the

763
00:58:57,445 --> 00:59:02,245
development of now, we haven't even really talked about the Bitcoin treasury companies and kind of

764
00:59:02,245 --> 00:59:09,925
the institutional wave that we saw. You know, Saylor had a nice podcast with Danny not too long

765
00:59:09,925 --> 00:59:14,585
ago about, you know, these Bitcoin treasury companies, they kind of went at it a little bit,

766
00:59:14,585 --> 00:59:30,585
But I think like, you know, from my perspective, it was a very interesting and eye opening conversation between the two because Saylor was saying essentially 2025 was if you take it at ignoring the price at face value is probably one of the most bullish years in Bitcoin.

767
00:59:31,225 --> 00:59:33,345
Obviously, with the price, that wasn't the case.

768
00:59:34,325 --> 00:59:37,646
And, you know, with the treasury companies, same kind of thing, right?

769
00:59:37,646 --> 00:59:41,465
We're having all these businesses pop up and now put Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

770
00:59:41,465 --> 00:59:45,485
And majority of them kind of took a big beating, including MSTR.

771
00:59:46,305 --> 00:59:54,905
So with the, I guess, knowing how the IS success or the rate of success had changed in 25,

772
00:59:55,405 --> 01:00:00,585
how do you see institutions looking at Bitcoin, you know, here in 2026?

773
01:00:02,245 --> 01:00:06,765
Look, I think the Bitcoin treasury companies serve a purpose in the market.

774
01:00:06,765 --> 01:00:09,265
I think they create some demand for Bitcoin.

775
01:00:09,725 --> 01:00:13,765
And the long and short of it is it's a leverage play on Bitcoin.

776
01:00:14,106 --> 01:00:17,666
So when Bitcoin's been in a bear market trending down for the last four months,

777
01:00:18,345 --> 01:00:21,965
those treasury companies have been in a worse position

778
01:00:21,965 --> 01:00:23,565
and have come off substantially more.

779
01:00:23,705 --> 01:00:27,325
And that's the reflexivity of investing in something

780
01:00:27,325 --> 01:00:29,485
that leverages into a highly volatile asset.

781
01:00:31,345 --> 01:00:33,606
Ironically, you would have avoided a lot of pain

782
01:00:33,606 --> 01:00:35,405
if you just bought Bitcoin and sat on it.

783
01:00:35,405 --> 01:00:39,606
but there is, I guess, a flavour of investing for everyone.

784
01:00:39,606 --> 01:00:43,845
And what's interesting to me is when it's to the downside,

785
01:00:44,106 --> 01:00:47,606
it absolutely crushes performance relative to Bitcoin.

786
01:00:48,146 --> 01:00:51,405
But at the same time, when there is a pump in the Bitcoin price,

787
01:00:52,085 --> 01:00:56,705
those treasury companies, my expectation is they will outperform Bitcoin moving forward.

788
01:00:56,865 --> 01:01:01,385
And what's really interesting to me is as a terminal Bitcoiner,

789
01:01:01,725 --> 01:01:04,005
meaning I can't get any more Bitcoin if I tried,

790
01:01:04,005 --> 01:01:05,666
that's going to move the needle for me.

791
01:01:06,545 --> 01:01:07,765
There's no other assets.

792
01:01:08,065 --> 01:01:10,345
It's basically Bitcoin or bust.

793
01:01:10,985 --> 01:01:17,065
But what I saw MetaPlanet do in December was quite remarkable.

794
01:01:17,065 --> 01:01:21,626
With a small price impulse in Bitcoin from $82,000 to $96,000,

795
01:01:22,585 --> 01:01:27,325
the MNAV of that company went from 0.86 to 1.26,

796
01:01:27,545 --> 01:01:29,905
so it increased 50% in a bit over a month.

797
01:01:29,905 --> 01:01:34,445
and they added just under 20% more Bitcoin per share

798
01:01:34,445 --> 01:01:35,666
to their shareholders.

799
01:01:36,245 --> 01:01:39,245
So if you were holding that one share of MetaPlanet,

800
01:01:39,765 --> 01:01:42,745
their Bitcoin per share went up by just under 20%

801
01:01:42,745 --> 01:01:45,465
in a single month on a very small impulse.

802
01:01:45,705 --> 01:01:46,666
So I look at that and think,

803
01:01:47,126 --> 01:01:48,765
what that gives me hope on

804
01:01:48,765 --> 01:01:52,425
is that the Bitcoin treasury thesis is still sound,

805
01:01:52,425 --> 01:01:55,505
meaning that they will be able to accrue more Bitcoin.

806
01:01:55,785 --> 01:01:59,085
They'll be able to use market mechanisms

807
01:01:59,085 --> 01:02:02,865
to increase their Bitcoin stack and increase their Bitcoin stack per share,

808
01:02:03,345 --> 01:02:06,885
which as a terminal Bitcoiner is the most important thing that you can hope for.

809
01:02:07,005 --> 01:02:10,285
Because when you're all out of Bitcoin, you can't get any more Bitcoin

810
01:02:10,285 --> 01:02:12,085
because you don't have the ability to do it.

811
01:02:12,545 --> 01:02:15,765
Having an investment structure that has the ability in good times

812
01:02:15,765 --> 01:02:18,945
to add significant amounts of Bitcoin per share,

813
01:02:19,245 --> 01:02:21,345
I think will become a very valuable tool.

814
01:02:21,345 --> 01:02:24,545
And so although it's been on the wrong slope for the last,

815
01:02:24,885 --> 01:02:28,025
call it six or seven months, when that worm turns,

816
01:02:28,025 --> 01:02:33,025
we come out of the bear market into a bull market, I expect those stocks to perform very well,

817
01:02:33,305 --> 01:02:40,126
much to the chagrin of the broader market. How do you think that the thesis, do you think the

818
01:02:40,126 --> 01:02:45,705
thesis is going to change, if any? Like, are they going to try to, I guess, like Jack Maulers has

819
01:02:45,705 --> 01:02:49,725
brought up buying other companies. Do you think that that's going to be the next wave where,

820
01:02:50,146 --> 01:02:54,705
you know, because essentially it was just a lot of Bitcoin treasury companies basically like

821
01:02:54,705 --> 01:02:59,025
making an announcement that they made one Bitcoin buy and then they've all kind of stopped. And then

822
01:02:59,025 --> 01:03:05,485
we've also seen Saylor put cash on the balance sheet to ride some of this volatility. So how do

823
01:03:05,485 --> 01:03:12,265
you see, do you see it, I guess, the thesis changing slightly here because of what we experienced last

824
01:03:12,265 --> 01:03:18,065
year? I don't think the underlying thesis will change. I think the, you know, their mission is

825
01:03:18,065 --> 01:03:22,646
to get as much Bitcoin as possible. That won't change. But I think we will drift in and out of

826
01:03:22,646 --> 01:03:28,305
narratives as to how they achieve that end. So, you know, when we first watched this, we looked at

827
01:03:28,305 --> 01:03:34,365
Saylor leveraging his treasury to buy Bitcoin. Then he figured out, I'll use Silvergate to borrow

828
01:03:34,365 --> 01:03:39,005
230 million to leverage my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. Then he figured out, hang on a second,

829
01:03:39,085 --> 01:03:42,965
there's a convertible note here. I'd like to use convertible notes because there's a lot less

830
01:03:42,965 --> 01:03:48,126
liquidation risk with that. And then he used that. And then he figured out the at the market option,

831
01:03:48,126 --> 01:03:54,205
the ATM for him to issue shares. Then he's moved into the preferreds. I think this is an evolution.

832
01:03:54,365 --> 01:03:58,405
They're just going to figure out ways and means to extract capital from the broader market to go

833
01:03:58,405 --> 01:04:03,065
and buy Bitcoin with it. And the fundamental thesis hasn't changed, but the mechanisms in which

834
01:04:03,065 --> 01:04:10,205
they do that has completely changed. And this is where, when that worm turns, I'm very excited to

835
01:04:10,205 --> 01:04:17,325
see how these preference shares work and add to the Bitcoin per share without diluting the

836
01:04:17,325 --> 01:04:22,545
shareholders because i think it'll add a huge or significant amount of bitcoin per share which is

837
01:04:22,545 --> 01:04:28,225
huge value add to the shareholders without diluting the shareholders with by issuing more shares so

838
01:04:28,225 --> 01:04:34,225
that that to me is a killer product you know in an upbeat market will be a huge driver for them

839
01:04:34,225 --> 01:04:40,606
yeah i mean essentially we've seen you know sailor have what is it like four of the top 10 biggest

840
01:04:40,606 --> 01:04:46,885
ipo moments uh ever with with all the preferred offerings that he's he's brought out so i mean at

841
01:04:46,885 --> 01:04:52,186
this point i i yeah i mean can can the guy keep doing it can he keep raising money to buy bitcoin

842
01:04:52,186 --> 01:04:58,465
how are we why are we giving this man so much capital to keep buying bitcoin especially with

843
01:04:58,465 --> 01:05:04,325
uh you know as down as sentiment is i mean reverting back to that like he had his third

844
01:05:04,325 --> 01:05:10,525
biggest buy ever like not too long ago so i mean who the hell's lended this guy money peter

845
01:05:10,525 --> 01:05:16,146
i think he's the best bitcoin salesman that we have and he would be very convincing if you were

846
01:05:16,146 --> 01:05:19,646
sitting on a pile of cash to give it to him to go buy some Bitcoin.

847
01:05:19,925 --> 01:05:23,085
So I love seeing his success.

848
01:05:23,085 --> 01:05:26,505
I think he's a huge net benefit for the Bitcoin community.

849
01:05:26,745 --> 01:05:30,106
We're all better for him being in there and him being so open

850
01:05:30,106 --> 01:05:35,545
and sharing his ideas with us because I think it makes all of us

851
01:05:35,545 --> 01:05:36,825
that much better for it.

852
01:05:36,945 --> 01:05:41,106
But it is hard to believe that he is still the only major player

853
01:05:41,106 --> 01:05:45,146
out there of significant size doing this and there is no competition

854
01:05:45,146 --> 01:05:45,686
for him.

855
01:05:45,686 --> 01:05:49,885
So I don't know how he keeps doing it, but it's fun to see him on the mission.

856
01:05:50,005 --> 01:05:51,606
And I'm thrilled he's on our team.

857
01:05:52,606 --> 01:05:53,626
Exactly, exactly.

858
01:05:53,785 --> 01:05:56,465
Well, Peter, I'm thrilled you're on our team as well, man.

859
01:05:56,465 --> 01:06:04,465
So why don't you tell people what you got going on and where they can find out more about you and listen to more of your stuff?

860
01:06:05,525 --> 01:06:06,085
Thank you, mate.

861
01:06:06,245 --> 01:06:08,525
Well, firstly, thanks for having me on.

862
01:06:08,825 --> 01:06:15,025
If anyone wants further information on what we do, you can reach me at thebitcoinadvisor.com.

863
01:06:15,025 --> 01:06:16,725
and that's advisor with an ER.

864
01:06:17,166 --> 01:06:19,646
What we do is we help people self-custody their Bitcoin.

865
01:06:20,365 --> 01:06:22,825
We talk our clients off the ledge and it's funny

866
01:06:22,825 --> 01:06:25,945
we're having this conversation today because my phone

867
01:06:25,945 --> 01:06:29,565
is lighting up talking to clients and effectively discussing,

868
01:06:29,905 --> 01:06:32,005
look, it's never as bad as you think it is.

869
01:06:32,945 --> 01:06:35,545
But we literally deliver that service to make sure

870
01:06:35,545 --> 01:06:38,225
that if you're buying Bitcoin, you do it in the right way,

871
01:06:38,305 --> 01:06:40,686
you self-custody it in a way that you can't lose it.

872
01:06:40,686 --> 01:06:44,146
And we provide a framework and a service around a whole host

873
01:06:44,146 --> 01:06:48,385
professionals who ensure that if something happens to you as the Bitcoiner, your family

874
01:06:49,025 --> 01:06:54,545
will inherit your Bitcoin without any fear or favour. And that's fundamentally my mission in

875
01:06:54,545 --> 01:07:00,225
life is to help get every Bitcoin off exchange. That will ultimately be very self-serving because

876
01:07:00,225 --> 01:07:05,265
that'll push the price up dramatically. But our job here is to help people self-custody and

877
01:07:05,825 --> 01:07:10,146
turns out it's a lot of fun talking to Bitcoiners and helping out with that. So if you want to reach

878
01:07:10,146 --> 01:07:15,365
Rich is there or on Twitter at PeterBTCAdvisor.

879
01:07:16,365 --> 01:07:17,905
Yeah, you guys do great work.

880
01:07:18,005 --> 01:07:19,825
So I'll be sure to put all that in the show notes.

881
01:07:19,965 --> 01:07:21,405
And Peter, thanks so much, brother.

882
01:07:22,045 --> 01:07:22,365
Legend.

883
01:07:22,565 --> 01:07:23,025
Thank you, mate.

884
01:07:23,225 --> 01:07:27,785
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.

885
01:07:28,205 --> 01:07:32,146
If you found some value in this one, please hit that subscribe button and that like button

886
01:07:32,146 --> 01:07:33,565
to help send this one to the masses.

887
01:07:33,765 --> 01:07:35,065
And I've got a surprise for you guys.

888
01:07:35,065 --> 01:07:38,425
I've got two more episodes that you have the chance to watch here.

889
01:07:38,425 --> 01:07:41,445
So go ahead and click one of them and I'll see you guys all at the next one.