We're going to get to a point where we have two nation states with money printers who are buying Bitcoin hand over fist
and that's when we're going to see some serious price action come to market
and this is where when the price is doing what it's doing right now
you can have one major player basically buying the bid and doing this
but when there are two major players with money printers doing this
they can't hide, they will set a floor at whatever price they want to pay for Bitcoin
Because when you think about it, they're purchasing a hard asset that cannot be duplicated with something they can literally print by holding down their finger on a computer.
So then what is Bitcoin's price at that point?
It's probably a 10,000x increase from here would be the expectation.
bing bong we are back with another edition of the state of bitcoin podcast where i've got the man
the myth the legend another recurring guest in the house peter dunworth from the bitcoin advisor but
peter i had to get you on because i mean what do we just hang it up now at this point we crashed to
60,000. Now the 58K gang is coming back in and it looks like everything's over. So
are we just being advised to just pack it up and go home or what, man?
That's what the bears are telling us, right? It's all over for Bitcoin. It's dead again,
the 400 or 500 obituary that we're reading about Bitcoin. Sadly, I don't think it's that easy.
And this last couple of weeks with Bitcoin and the relentless selling pressure we've seen, I think, has been really taxing on a lot of Bitcoiners.
And that fearful 58K gain looks like it's within sights and we might be there sooner than we know.
Yeah.
So, I mean, what do you think that the reason for this giant sell-off is?
because you know the narrative previously like i mean maybe a month or two ago which honestly feels
like ages ago was that the whales were selling off but there was a lot of institutional buy pressure
so it didn't bitcoin didn't fall as much as it would have or potentially should have if we didn't
have as much of the institutions buying up as they were so now we're having that big giant sell-off
And, you know, before the narrative was like, oh, we'll never see another, you know, 50, 60% drop in Bitcoin.
But it seems like we're getting it now.
So what are you seeing out there and what do you think the reasoning for this giant dip is?
Boy, that's a deep question.
And I think if I look at how did we get here, I think you can pinpoint that exact moment to the 10th of the 10th with the Binance meltdown and that malfunction or undermining the market makers that happened there.
Typically, it takes probably three to six months for dead bodies to float to the surface.
And that's been the narrative that everyone has run with.
But that's not what's brought us to this point in time.
I think that has helped.
And it's never just one thing.
It's always a confluence of a whole host of things.
And I look at that might have been what got the party started in this bear market.
But as the price drops, it creates a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt.
There's a lot of people who bought Bitcoin with the promise of getting rich very quickly.
And they just didn't, the material gains didn't realise.
So they're basically back to not really understanding what they own.
And the problem with that is, is that if you don't understand what you own,
You get very fearful when it drops 30%, 40%, 50%.
And then at the very point in time when you should be buying more
and allocating heavier to this investment, you end up selling it.
And this is where the real compounded losses add up,
that people don't know what they own,
they don't or didn't really understand what they were getting
when they bought it.
And then when it drops, it doesn't live up to the promise
of instant riches.
And truth be told, Bitcoin is probably the hardest investment
to hold because not only does it go up dramatically it also can come crashing down very quickly but
if you're invested for the long term the fundamental thesis of bitcoin hasn't changed
and i look at this as just an enormous buying opportunity that we only get to see maybe once
every four years yeah and and i think the interesting thing i've been doing some digging
here lately is that if you look at like the wallet distribution in bitcoin it is very similar to
traditional wealth. And last time when we dipped under 100k, you saw we saw the number of wallets
with 10 million sats or point one Bitcoin drop, while the number of institutions with 1000 or more
Bitcoin really shoot up. So you know, do you think that this is ever going to, I guess, change human
behavior? Are we ever going to unlock it where we just see Bitcoin in that changes how we react and
not sell off in emotional moments like this? Or is this just, I guess, how things are always going
to play out? You mean that the question is, can we reprogram that reptilian brain that's been
millions and millions of years of evolution that basically teaches exactly how not to behave
in volatile markets? Can we unwind that in a matter of four years and teach everyone on earth?
Sadly, I think that's a very tall ask. We're not going to be able to achieve that. But
we can educate ourselves and I think the one of the great gifts that you deliver to the Bitcoin
community is knowledge expertise and understanding that hopefully you know with some of the discussions
that we have and your other guests people get to educate themselves about what this is and then
protect themselves from making bad decisions at precisely the wrong time and this is where I think
for anyone who's thinking about selling a great mate of both of ours I was catching up with
yesterday checkmate he said what i was thinking and probably what you're thinking which is now is
precisely the wrong time to be selling and there's going to be a lot of people out there who just
cannot deal with the emotional pain of watching this thing go down any further and want it to stop
and they'll sell and then once everyone's uh done that the market's free to move back up
yeah so taking that a step further right uh what is going on in the precious metals market
and how do you think that this could potentially relate to uh bitcoin here going forward because i
think you know i'm seeing the you know the silver short squeezes all of these different you know
narratives flowing floating out about uh you know what's going on in the precious metals market and
And a lot of Bitcoiners did come over from the hard money principles of whether it was being gold bugs or just kind of understanding that aspect.
And they've moved everything from gold to Bitcoin.
And now they're like, what the hell happened?
So what are you seeing in this precious metals market?
And do you think that some of that capital is going to flow over to Bitcoin here eventually?
and it's just maybe gold and Peter Schiff is having their day in the sun,
their one day in the sun for the past, I don't know, 15, 20 years or so.
I agree with that.
I think I don't want to take anything away from the doll bugs and silver bugs.
They've been at this a lot longer than the Bitcoiners have
when it comes to a sound money standard.
And I think we should all be on the same team.
We literally are all on the same team of sound money.
And so I think this infighting is just we haven't been able to articulate the position of Bitcoin correctly at this point in time.
But if you look at what's happening in the gold and precious metals markets, we've seen in the last two weeks, we've seen effectively a huge blow off top.
We've had a parabola, a chart that looks a lot like what a blow off top in Bitcoin looks like.
That happened in both gold and silver markets.
And then that was basically followed by a large crash in dollar terms, which is probably two or three times the entire market size or market cap of Bitcoin.
And I look at that and think this volatility is here to stay and probably reference the Weimar chart of the 1920s and the gold price to the Weimar.
And not only is it volatile to the upside, but it comes exceptionally volatile to the downside.
And this is where I think gold and silver were both overbought on any of the momentum indicators that you look at.
It's not possible to maintain a vertical chart.
There needs to be some rest in order for the market to recuperate, recover and then go again.
So this is perfectly normal market behaviour in the short term.
And in the long term, I think the case for gold over the next few years and silver is very positive.
And I'm very positive on the gold and silver thesis.
And I don't think it is in any way competition to Bitcoin.
I actually think one-on-one makes three when it comes to the gold,
silver, hard money thesis with respect to Bitcoin.
Because the larger those market caps go,
the more opportunity there is for Bitcoin.
And I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a 10x,
maybe 100x better asset than gold by way of market cap.
So I think as Bitcoiners, we should be rooting for gold to be at 25,000 an ounce or 50,000 an ounce, whatever the number, the bigger the better, because not only will, through time, Bitcoin achieve that market cap, but it will surpass it by a factor of probably 10, 20, 30, 40, maybe even 100x bigger than the gold market.
But it's such a nascent technology, Bitcoin, and it's so misunderstood.
And there's a lot of education that goes into really understanding this asset.
And it takes time.
I just look at my personal journey on this and it took me five years to really understand it and buy Bitcoin before I actually bought some.
Having been told by my brother to buy it when it was $3, I share that experience because it's the most costly financial mistake of my life.
But in moments like this, a lot of people don't really understand the total addressable market for Bitcoin, that there is huge upside to it.
And working with, I guess, the precious metal guys, gold and silver market, it is only beneficial for Bitcoin because at some point in time in the future, Bitcoin will not only reach those levels, but it will surpass them dramatically.
So I'm happy to see the gold bugs and silver bugs getting a bit on their assets.
And I long may live.
Yeah, so, you know, I guess, obviously, we've had a few conversations in the past about Bitcoin going extremely parabolic.
Does this help, I guess, help you with that theory?
Just because, I mean, it seems like there's essentially two different, I guess, theories when it comes to Bitcoin price.
There's that power law model that, you know, the returns are going to be diminishing.
You know, with that, they said there wasn't going to be as much downside risk, but there wasn't going to be as much upside risk.
But now that I'm seeing the volatility in the silver market for how much more or how much bigger of a market cap that is, I mean, it's, you know, it's more than double Bitcoin's market cap now.
And we saw a 30% dip in one day from silver.
um so you know does you does this kind of i guess almost justify or you think uh help confirm your
your previous thesis of you know potentially going parabolic at some point and you know seeing uh
things like really take off to me i think it confirms the parabolic nature of these assets
and watching the price action of gold and silver over the last week or two it it really confirms
to me the notion that most people misunderstand the fact that price is determined at the margin.
So depending on what is available for sale is really going to be determined by what is the price.
And if you look at the gold and silver markets, they're precious metals. They're required in some
way, shape or form for some industry, but not really. There's a huge monetary premium to them,
although that monetary premium is being eaten away by industrial use cases for silver. But
The price is determined at the margin, and this is where when you have absolute digital scarcity in Bitcoin, only 21 million, you've got a maniac, and I say that in the best possible way, in Saylor, buying as much Bitcoin as he can.
He's the first and only major corporate to this party.
He's got 3% of supply.
What happens when we have nation state competition for this?
And what happens when there's no physical Bitcoin or digital Bitcoin to deliver and it's all paper contracts?
What we end up seeing is what happened in March 2022
in the nickel market.
We saw a number of traders basically put a position on nickel
and it set the price of nickel up 300% to 400% in a day.
And I look at this and think nickel is a fairly innocuous metal.
It's not rare by any means whatsoever.
You can mine more of it.
And what happened there is it effectively risked blowing up
the London Metals Exchange.
and meant that the London Metals Exchange had to step in
and basically make good on some of their market participants
until the people who benefited from that trade
that they're not entitled to the profits that they thought they were
and they're only going to get 40 cents in the dollar on the profit.
Now, if they hadn't been able to get the profit,
that would have near bankrupted some of the other market participants.
Now, for me, all I'm looking at with this gold and silver market
is that price is determined at the margin.
That's what every Bitcoiner needs to remember.
And if we want to make sure and hold these banks accountable
for paying what they have to when it comes to Bitcoin,
it's absolutely imperative that every Bitcoiner out there
self-custodies their Bitcoin
so that there is no supply available for the banks to manipulate.
Yeah, and you know what is interesting too is that
I think I saw somewhere that there's like 356 paper ounces of silver
for every physical ounce of silver.
So with a market that there is so much like paper silver just out there, it's still getting
manipulated this much.
So if you have your Bitcoin in self-custody, even with, you know, silver being two to three
X the size of Bitcoin, look at how volatile is this going?
I mean, I feel like this is just, you know, getting me more bullish seeing how how volatile
this market is.
But, you know, what do you think that this points to as far as like the uncertainty in
the market? Because obviously, we've had a lot of, I guess, let's call it like geopolitical
meandering back and forth, right? And then we've also had Trump announce a new Fed chair pick. And
in all that, we saw massive swings. So do you think that this is just, I guess, a symptom of
the massive amounts of money printing that we've been seeing that, you know, the markets are so
forward looking that you know and there's just so much money out there that it just swings like this
or um what do you what else could be the i guess a possible explanation that you see for the reason
why we're seeing so much volatility in the markets right now i think there's a lot of reasons for
this uncertainty and i think when when there are huge opportunities there's also huge uncertainty
We're looking at AI and the disruption that AI brings.
That potentially completely reroutes what we know as efficient
or positive businesses.
For me, I think we have a number of headwinds that we've got
to get through that aren't going to be around for much longer,
but my expectation is for the next two to three weeks,
well, actually probably five to six weeks,
till the end of March, the end of the first quarter,
we're going to have a whole host of things weighing over the market.
And that not only in the Bitcoin market,
but that in the broader market is a symptom of what we're facing at the moment
with an unknown new Fed chair.
I know we've got some short odds on who'll be the favourite to win that,
but how are they going to deal with it?
What are they going to do?
But if we can zoom out a little bit and have a look at what's happening this year
geopolitically, because I think that's the most important factor
in what we've got and what's going to influence not only markets,
but specifically the Bitcoin price.
We've got the US midterms coming up in November this year.
And what I think is probably
one of the truest things I've seen from my experience and love the American
culture but as an outsider looking in to the US I look at this and think what is one thing that the US love more than anything else To me that a comeback story and so I look at this and I think in an election year or midterm
year what a great story. Have the market crash into the first quarter, appoint your man, get the
Fed rolling and all of a sudden you rip back from April through to September, October back to all-time
highs and you set yourself up for a very positive election season when it comes to the midterms
because at the moment the Republicans look unelectable
at this point in time.
They'll face a landslide.
So if the mood is dark, there's a high probability
the Republicans will lose.
But if the economy rips back, everything's humming,
manufacturing starts motoring along,
that reshoring that's been talked of,
we're going to see a very positive outlook for the US economy
and I think that bodes well for the Republicans
and their chances of re-election.
Yeah, that's interesting.
I mean, I think that that is kind of almost seems like it's going to be too good to be true, right?
Because the Fed, the new Fed chair will be coming in in May.
They're more than likely going to do what Trump wants and pump some more liquidity in the market,
which in turn will theoretically go to Bitcoin and, you know, we'll start to see a pump,
which will be coincidentally right around the time where these midterms will come up.
It seems like it would be too good to be true.
and I'm going to play devil's advocate with you here, Peter,
because it seems like every time we think something is going to happen in Bitcoin,
the opposite has been happening lately.
Is that because traditional finance is here?
And it's essentially they've, I guess, financialized Bitcoin in a sense,
even though, you know, well, we can make the argument Bitcoin,
it's Bitcoinizing finance.
But do you think that, I guess it's almost like a symptom of what we saw
with like the real estate market in 2008,
It's like when you start financializing some of these products or assets, so to speak, that the volatility is just unavoidable.
You raise a really good point.
And this is where TradFi is a big, big world.
In some respects, yes, totally agree with you on that.
If you look at, say, the options market, futures, derivatives, those types of markets are having an outsized impact on Bitcoin.
through paper bitcoin but if you look at and this will be controversial so um to all the bitcoiners
out there don't throw tomatoes at me on this one it's just hyperbolic hyperbolically speaking um
you look at the etfs and the flows in and out of it they have been very strong and despite the
price dropping below the median price of purchase at 82 000 those etf holders have actually been
quite strong-handed diamond hands when it comes to not selling they haven't sold a huge amount
yes there's been a little bit of outflow but their median price is 82 we're sitting at 62 or 63k as
we speak and there hasn't been a huge amount of outflow i think there's been only six percent
of total outflows from what went in so i look at that and i think there's that bifurcation of that
tradfire market that etf holders have actually been very good for bitcoin they haven't really
sold off in a huge amount any more than say retail investors in the spot spot bitcoin so
there is some nuance to that question and i hope that's gone part way to answering it
no i mean i think it is it is interesting too because if you look at the etf outflows it just
simply that they're they're not selling so it is kind of this different kind of of buyer in um and
i guess that almost relates back to the question we were i asked you earlier about
you know just the the self-custody uh guys and everybody holding bitcoin essentially
selling off during these dips um so is this just i i guess the the natural progression in this
this cycle and uh you know do you think that the four-year cycle narrative now is essentially over
damn i was a big you know having seen the year close negative i thought oh yes we've slayed that
demon of the four-year cycle it's over we don't have to worry about that anymore and then i just
think of that meme with um the grim reaper going door to door about four-year cycles and then the
four-year cycle popping out and just killing the grim reaper all of a sudden you know four-year
cycles are back on the table and it's revolving around the halving again and statistically that
doesn't make any sense when you know the halving of supply every four years um is such a minuscule
event now in in proportionate terms you know you're having inflation go from two percent to one
percent is not a big deal but when inflation goes from 50 to 25 five percent it's a huge deal
i think there are other factors in the market now that make it very different you know institutional
money geopolitics is playing its hand in it trad fires got a much bigger influence
and i'd like to say the four-year cycle is not dead but here we are down 40 50 and looking to go
low on yeah it almost seems like it's uh it's come roaring back man and it's uh it's i i thought too
like i mean like i said i was i was almost buying into the narrative uh where we wouldn't have as
big of these dips because we're getting those stronger hands that are essentially you know the
institutions the governments and all these people like like i mean we were saying we're lying out
the etf buyers like these are the guys that are like buying this asset for long term um but then
you know like i said you think you know what's going to go on and happen with bitcoin it comes
and smacks you right in the face and then we get back down to maybe that 58k gang and we're gonna
see uh prices maybe potentially touching down there so um you know with this price action where
it is uh how do you project you know the rest of this year to come on i mean we're recording this
on February 5th. And I think everybody thought 2025 was going to be a little bit different.
But now going into 2026, it seems like everybody and the sentiment around Bitcoin
is honestly the most negative I've seen it since I've been in this space. So
how are you feeling about it? And where do you think it's going?
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trusted, proven. I think I agree with you on the sentiment being the worst I've seen it. And I mean,
I've only been around since 2016. So lived through 2018, lived through 2022, lived through FDX,
lived through China banning Bitcoin mining.
I've got to say it is the worst I've seen.
And I think that is because we have the reflection
on other assets that have been doing really well.
So it feels a lot worse to Bitcoiners
than what previous cycles were
because in previous cycles,
you had a huge parabolic blow off top.
You got to take your winnings
and if it crashed 80%, no big deal.
But when you barely, you know,
in inflation adjusted terms,
beat your previous all-time high,
and then you drop 60 to 80 percent while other assets like gold are ripping 20 percent in a week
it it feels really bad and this is where i think it's really important to be patient and put things
into perspective this is the first time it's happened and it's really important to zoom out
and have a look at why do you own the asset that you own and this is the important thing of
understanding what you own when it comes to bitcoin bitcoin in self-custody not in the
the ETFs or other paper derivatives is an absolute godsend.
It's the most powerful tool or most powerful monetary tool
that you can hold and wield.
You've got full autonomy, full self-sovereignty.
You have censorship and seizure-resistant money.
And in a world that's going into possibly the fourth turning,
which is looking very likely at this point in time,
that kind of money will have a premium on it.
And at the moment, we just have a huge discount on that
because I don't think people really understand what this asset is.
But again, when people really understand the benefits and the power
that Bitcoin delivers you from a personal sovereignty perspective,
this will be a multi-million, if not multi-billion dollar asset.
Now let's dive into the fourth turning.
For those who are unfamiliar of that,
why don't you describe that theory a little bit
and why do you think it seems like we're trending in that direction?
Well, the fourth turning basically describes a series of events that lead to the culmination of a breakdown in society in a very meaningful way, where there are periods in time where society grows, society prospers, the prosperity of a society leads to poor decision making, and then the poor decision making ultimately leads to some very bad decisions and the destruction of the institutions that were there previously.
And this has downstream consequences on all of those participants and citizens involved in it.
And the TLDR of fourth turning is it's basically a revolution.
It's burning things to the ground and then rebuilding from the start.
And when you look around the world, we are seeing the formations of that across the globe.
There is, I think, huge political instability in parts of the US.
You have a look through Europe. You've got Macron basically banning Marine Le Pen from entering the presidential race in France.
You've got the EU stepping in to push a whole host of personal agendas in nation states that have a difference of opinion with Brussels, which looks like cause for revolt.
and in the UK, which is basically what a lot of Western society
has got to be grateful for, you look at a whole host
of those institutions that are rotten to the core.
Corruption is absolutely rampant all the way to the top
of the political structure.
Not only all of their institutions, it looks like their judges
are running a two-tier justice system and this is the problem,
that if that doesn't get rectified and the people understand
what the rules are and the rules are evenly applied to everyone,
then the citizens basically have a huge revolt and burn the place down.
And this is where, in that type of situation,
the one thing that you want to be holding, I believe, is not gold,
is not silver, and it's probably not Bitcoin in that period.
You want to be having lead and guns full of it.
So without wanting to be too dark on this,
we're getting much closer to that as a society across the Western world.
And this is at the same time when we've got Russia doing its thing, China asserting itself as a global dominant player.
And at the same time, it's questionable.
And I don't think we're there yet, but a lot of people around the world want to start questioning the power of the US.
And this is where things start to break and get very interesting very quickly.
Yeah, it seems like we're kind of trending in that direction.
And I want to dive in because obviously you have a close connection with Australia being from there.
And it seems like they've kind of taken a turn for the worse and the EU is right there with them.
But it does seem like a lot of people are starting to, I guess, quote unquote, vote with their feet and get out and leave.
do you think that uh i guess we're at a stage where i guess people are able to to take their
wealth and and leave out of these jurisdictions and and you know when you see the freezing of
bank accounts the digital ids all of these you know negative and almost like orwellian type of
tactics that these governments are using to control you know do you think that people are
just essentially going to bend over and take it at this point? Or do you have some hope that
some powers that be are going to stop these things from developing as rapidly as they seem to be
right now? I hope I'm wrong, but history would suggest that when rights are taken, they don't
hand them back. You have to physically fight for them. And this is a very sad thing. You look at
the exodus of millionaires, I think there were 12,000 or 13,000 millionaires that left
the UK for greener pastures, Dubai being the recipient of most of those.
And I think as our governments understand that they are out of cash, they don't have
the ability to generate revenue, they've got a bloated government that basically has,
and if I can just have a rant for one second, a side note here is government economics
and how they portray their input into the national economy
always beggars belief for me in that they can talk
about government spending adding to GDP.
And to me, I'm thinking you've taken someone's tax dollars
and then you've spent them and you're claiming that as GDP
that you've created.
And we're getting to a tipping point now, I think,
in a lot of the Western cultures where there are so many people
on the government teat that it tips over to the point
where the working class are basically being taxed to death.
And so if you look at Australia, you look at the UK,
the highest taxpayers are probably walking away
with 40% or less of the income that they generate.
And that to me doesn't seem fair
when you've got a huge welfare state blowing out
and there's runaway spending in that capacity.
I think anyone who's in a position to move
will end up moving to escape that.
So it's really just have a look at the incentives and that will tell you everything that's going to happen.
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, the more craziness we're starting to see globally, I mean, the more that they're essentially just making the case for Bitcoin.
But, you know, when we see essentially, you know, I mean, you were saying a little bit earlier that it might not be the best to have gold, silver or Bitcoin in like the craziness of this fourth turning.
uh you know maybe you need something like lead obviously we don't want to get too grim and get
down that rabbit hole but um you know when we when we're lining out how you know the societies have
just basically been taking a turn it seems like still in a time like this the biggest orange
pillar is going to be price um so you know how can we i guess reach more bitcoin because i mean
it seems like the price is always the the longest standing i guess it's unique because bitcoin's
price is essentially that just the key indicator for adoption in a sense um so it seems like with
the liquidity being sucked out of the market and the sentiment being down and this fourth turning
ahead of us um you know it seems very very grim here but how do we turn more people towards bitcoin
here, Peter? How do we get them back? Is it going to take something like the Fed coming in and
cutting interest rates and pumping a bunch of liquidity and thus Bitcoin price pumping? Or is
there another way that we could get them over? Last bull run, we had exchanges blow up. You saw
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All right, enough from me.
Let's get back to the show.
I think there are a number of ways for us to help people understand Bitcoin.
The first way is to actually get them to get some and use it.
And once they use it, once they see it, they'll understand what that benefit is.
But when you're looking to invest, it's always a relative decision.
I.e., what's the opportunity cost of investing in this versus something else?
and when Bitcoin prices are 40 or 50%
and we've got a whole host of measures
that are wildly positive for Bitcoin,
I look at this and think this is precisely the moment
that people should be looking at Bitcoin
because herein lies the opportunity.
It won't be at a 50% discount for too long.
It will recover through time and by time I mean literally
over the next few months to six months.
We'll be through this bear market.
But this pain that we're all going through at this point in time in the day will look like a distant memory.
And then we'll all start with the means of, oh, I'm not going to buy Bitcoin at 120k.
I'm going to wait for it to go to 50k again.
And this is the problem with Bitcoin in that because it's the wildest, most volatile asset that we've had, it plays havoc on your emotions and your emotional IQ when it comes to or your EQ when it comes to investing.
so in typical markets they might sell off 20% and that's considered a huge blow
considered a bear market in stocks and then people start to look to add positions there
but Bitcoin is more than double that it's nearly triple that the volatility of the stock market
maybe more and that really plays havoc but herein lies the opportunity if you're brave
if you're curious to add or start a position in Bitcoin at this point in time and have that
bill through time. And if I look around at what the alternative is for what you can invest in at
this point in time, the stock market looks fully priced to me. Bonds are uninvestable when it comes
to the inflation rate and the debasement. And I think bonds would have to be paying over 15%
per annum in order for me to get excited and wanting to put money to work there. And that
would have to be a net 15%, not a gross 15%. So the chance of that happening anytime sooner,
well, let's hope not, not really possible.
And then you look at the property market in the US, UK, Australia,
Canada, New Zealand, property's cooked.
It's really, really hard to make money in property.
The notion and the promise that we're all delivered
or that we're all told around property, just buy property,
get on the property ladder and then buy your next one,
the next one.
I think that that social contract is broken when it comes to property.
So I look at, for everyone who's thinking about Bitcoin,
why don't you actually study the other alternative investment options that you've got
and then come back to Bitcoin and realizing how limited the opportunities are in every other asset
class. And I'm still confident that over the next 10 years, we're going to see somewhere between a
50 to 100x return in Bitcoin over the next 10 years. And that those type of returns is something
that you just don't get in any other asset yeah um and i and i think it is going to be something
where we start to see it go parabolic and like we were lining it out earlier i mean the silver
market just proves that this is this is like full-fledged possibility here in in the near
future and you know when we see the development of how this space is i guess playing out with the
institutions coming in and you know the potential governments um you know we also had you know your
your friend check matey also friend of the program here last time he was on he was telling me that
there's some big governments buying up bitcoin and you know there has to be some multiple uh
of these big players doing this do you still think that that is happening and that maybe there's some
fishiness going on in the back end or maybe it's who knows maybe the guys over at blackrock or maybe
some of these governments trying to dump in order to try to accumulate lower or or something along
those lines do you think that there is some sort of price manipulation going on right now it's
always a boogeyman when we're in a bear market yes exactly i have to point to somebody we need to find
someone who are we going to blame for our misery right now who on earth can take this who is
responsible let's find them and lynch them um i say that jokingly because it is always the way and
nine times out of ten it's it's never that it's just markets acting in unison you know basically
mass hysteria people acting literally at the same point in time you know what we're seeing in the
market where bitcoin's off 11 12 13 percent in a day what you've got is just a confluence of
mass hysteria where people are acting individually running to the doors for exit and creating what
looks to be a coordinated conspiracy to send the price of Bitcoin lower. But it's never a
conspiracy on the way up. It's always, oh, this is what market demand meeting supply looks like.
So I say that facetiously. I don't think there is anything untoward there. I think what we will
find at some point in time in the future is we're going to get to a point where we have two nation
states with money printers who are buying Bitcoin hand over fist. And that's when we're going to see
some serious price action come to market.
And this is where when the price is doing what it's doing right now,
you can have one major player basically buying the bid and doing this.
But when there are two major players with money printers doing this,
they can't hide.
They will set a floor at whatever price they want to pay for Bitcoin
because when you think about it, they're purchasing a hard asset
that cannot be, I guess, duplicated with something
they can literally print by holding down their finger on a computer.
Once this realization dawns on people,
we're going to have a nation state competition for Bitcoin
and price will literally become irrelevant then.
Do you think, because I mean, Kevin Warsh,
obviously he is the nomination for the new Fed chair.
So whether or not that comes true, I guess time will tell.
But he has been, you know, on record saying very positive things
about Bitcoin, but also on record, which kind of sent the markets in a tizzy here of being very
hawkish and not wanting to lower rates to help make sure that we're fighting inflation. But
obviously, he's Trump's guy. He's probably going to come in and conduct QE. Do you think that this
nomination or this could be hinting towards potentially the US printing money in a sense
with QE and buying Bitcoin here in the next few months?
I think it's going to be whatever is in the best interest of the US.
And I think he is really Bessent's guy.
And so he and Bessent are going to have to work really closely together.
And I look at the influence that Stan Druckenmiller's had on the market
where Bessent worked for Druckenmiller.
It looks like the new Fed chair will have worked for him as well.
those cars understand both sides of the fence when it comes to you know government politic and
you know real world application to it so yes he may look all shit hawkish but a hawkish
environment should actually be very positive for bitcoin because if you you look at the second
order consequences of what a hawkish fed looks like that means they're going to want to reassure
the balance sheet they're going to want to recapitalize the financial markets and i look at
what is the fastest way to recapitalise the financial markets that we have?
And that is Bitcoin because you can't use property to do it
because we've got a cost of living crisis.
You can't use the stock market to inflate
because you're already running at a 20 to 30 times price earnings multiple.
By definition, you can't print more money
because it only adds to the problem.
It doesn't solve it.
And so the alternative is you pump Bitcoin,
you send that thing to a million or 10 million bucks a coin.
You make a very small number of cypherpunks and nerds
very, very wealthy and you avoid economic collapse. To me, a hawkish Fed on the face of it looks
really bad for Bitcoin, but long term, I actually think it's very, very good for Bitcoin because
he'll want to make sure that the debt crisis or the debt problem that we've got at the moment
is that they solve the collateral crisis that accompanies that. And this is where I haven't
seen anyone talking about the collateral crisis. Everyone wants to harp on about, oh, we've got a
debt problem, debt problem. Debt is only a problem if you have no collateral to take to recover your
debt. And so the debt's only a problem because there's no collateral. And I look at this and
think Bitcoin is the ideal asset to recapitalize the financial markets and have as the collateral
for the world because it's globally ubiquitous. There's no downstream consequences for Main
Street. If the price goes to 10 million tomorrow, it's not going to affect inflation. It's not going
affect housing affordability it's not going to affect the cost of living crisis it's going to
be a net benefit to society and it solves a huge problem that we have which is there's no collateral
in the system we're effectively insolvent yeah so then with this uh i guess bitcoin help uh prop
up the fiat system to a point where uh it won't fail you think because it'll help with this
collateral crisis that we're in? I think it can. It just needs to grow into an unimaginable size
in order to deliver that because there's still going to be volatility, but you just need Bitcoin
to grow into a size where it is so huge it accounts for realistically probably 70, 80,
90% of all assets in the world will be denominated or will revolve around Bitcoin.
And so the housing market, the bond market, the stock market will be probably maybe 10% of the
size of the total Bitcoin market. And that's what makes sense to me. This bull run, I'm looking for
ways to stack Bitcoin in my sleep and mining has always caught my eye. I've partnered with the guys
over at Simple Mining to help you do just that. I don't recommend anything that I don't use
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All right, enough from me. Let's get back to the show.
So then what is Bitcoin's price at that point? That's like, you know, maybe a trillion dollar
coin. It's probably a 10,000 X increase from here would be the expectation. My goodness. Well,
Well, okay, well, there we go.
I'm not fast with the numbers to tell you exactly what that is.
I know it just needs to go up a lot.
And this is where for anyone looking at the investments that are out there,
when you realise that, hey, there's limited upside with property,
limited upside with stocks, limited upside with bonds,
they're almost uninvestable.
The commodities markets just had a blow off top like we haven't seen
in 30 years or more.
All of a sudden, Bitcoin looks really good at a 50% discount
to where it was three months ago.
Yeah, I mean, well, at the end of the day, right, I mean, Bitcoin is going to absorb a lot of these markets. And I mean, we've heard Saylor kind of talk about the $300 trillion bond market, the $145 trillion fixed income market. I think since the last time you've come on, he's brought up the $200 trillion credit market.
Obviously, there's people building products to help take in some of that real estate market.
Now, watching all of these and looking at all of these different markets, I mean, they're huge numbers.
How quickly do you think Bitcoin will start to swallow up some of these markets?
Do you think it's going to be slower than we expect?
Or do you think like, hey, we're going to turn around and you're going to be like, what the hell just happened?
And how did we get to Bitcoin from crashing and burning to 50,000 to all of a sudden a million a coin here?
If I can use a historical example, which I think is the closest thing we have to it.
I look at the work that Larry Fink did in the early 80s, building out that mortgage-backed security market.
That market was built to tokenize the U.S. housing market.
It was to financialize, tokenize it, whatever you want to call it.
And that took Larry the better part of 20 years to really financialize that and have that totally ingratiated into the traditional financial system, starting from zero.
Bitcoin's 17 years old and we're only two years into the ETFs.
So all of a sudden, we're just over two years into the ETFs.
I think we've got another 10 to 15 years before it gets to the size where it's a meaningful component of the broader financial system and ingratiating itself into that lot, that lead role as pristine collateral.
There's a lot of education that needs to take place between now and then, but I look at this as a way of solving a real issue because the alternative to solving this collateral crisis that we've got is we basically have a war and then we have a debt jubilee at the end of it.
And truth be told, I've seen enough killing in the Ukraine and Russia that I don't want to see young men go to war for old men's fights when we have a solution that can solve that problem peacefully.
And the only side effect of it is you just make a few people really rich.
And those few people are the Bitcoin OG whales?
Yeah.
I mean, hey, would it be the worst thing in the world, huh?
I mean, I wish I was an OG whale, but hey, I don't think it would be, you know, necessarily, like I said, the worst possible aspect of this.
But if we don't solve this collateral crisis, if, let's say, we're playing on the other side of things, if they don't see Bitcoin as the pristine collateral, right?
I mean, because I think there is that risk that as Bitcoiners, we're starting to see with the governments not really embracing Bitcoin as fast as maybe we thought, right?
I mean, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, there was no buys.
There's the Genius Act that passed essentially just to get stable coins to buy up all the UST bills.
I mean, it seems like the US is still using a lot of, let's say, crypto products to try to prop up its own dollar and pay its own debt.
Now, what is it going to take?
Like, are we going to get into that debt spiral that, you know,
James Lavish and Lynn Alden have essentially been talking about
for quite some time before we can solve this collateral crisis?
Very possibly we could.
And this is where, like, two great names in the industry.
I absolutely love James' work and think he's one of the best.
And Lynn is an all-time great who I've learned so much from.
So I'd prefer not to be put on the spot about disagreeing with them,
if that's okay.
Yeah.
I think they'll be proven right.
However, there is a scenario where there could be a situation
where the debt isn't a major problem.
And if we bring this back to what I see the use case as being
for Bitcoin as a store of value, medium exchange,
and unit of account, we have a burgeoning technology
that is just in its very infancy in the AI economy
that's kicking off.
And we saw last week some of the work that Marty Bent's done talking about AI and what currency systems, what payment systems they want to use.
It all going to revolve around Bitcoin The interesting thing about that is is that the collateral crisis is really a store of value problem that we solving for and maybe a unit of account But this AI economy
has the ability to be exponentially larger than our existing economy. And if the AI infrastructure
and ecosystem agrees that Bitcoin is the only way they want payment made, that's going to take care
of itself as far as value accretion goes.
So the need for solving the collateral crisis won't really be a big issue
and to sort of put a bow on this.
You will effectively solve this problem by growing out of it
so the debt will become meaningless relative to the productivity gains
that you have.
And we've seen Elon Musk talk about a, well, Trump talking about a 6%
to 8% GDP growth in the next year.
I thought that was wild, totally unachievable,
and then we see a number with a five-handle in front of it
and now I'm starting to believe.
By the way, I'll just make one quick side note.
Never bet against America.
That's the most important thing you can see.
So if that happens, Trump's talking about a 6% to 8% GDP.
Elon's talking about, well, we could get double digits,
which is over 10, and in the next few years,
we could get triple digits, which is 100% GDP growth.
This sounds completely fanciful,
but I've learned to never bet against America
and never doubt the richest man in the world and what he can achieve
because he's got a track record of proving everyone wrong.
Yeah, it's really interesting that you're lining this out as an Aussie here
because I always kind of resonated with that, right?
Never bet against America because we have just some of the greatest entrepreneurs
and growing out of this.
But to be honest, before these past like two weeks or so, I wasn't the biggest.
I mean, I've used AI for a while, but the developments that are happening right now are
something, some of the most crazy things that I've ever seen. And I think, you know, we're seeing the
markets kind of scream at it, that software companies are essentially dying down. And, you
know, any company, like maybe we see this AI boom, and I've been in the theory that we've almost been
in this bubble. But I actually think that there is a chance that we build this way out now with the
developments of like clodbot and all of these different things where i'm actually pretty
optimistic that it there is a greener pastures here do you see it as potential the potential
of having that that ai bubble because it seems like everybody's been screaming about it for years
but like with this recent development i mean you know you you mentioned marty um you know him
lining out on how he's using clodbot and and all of these different things like is there a possibility
that this growing out goes so quickly that eventually AI is just,
I guess, almost a commonplace in replacing a lot of workers
and everything is just so efficient that we're reaching that utopia
that Bitcoiners have envisioned as the Bitcoin future.
I really hope so.
But to one of our points earlier,
we really need to rewire millions of years of thinking
in that absolute reptilian brain that we have
that we need to be of an abundance mindset
and realise that, hey, everyone can have anything they want.
They just can't have everything they want.
And this is to the point we made earlier about, you know,
never bet against America.
America is fantastic when it's a strong place
and if any country can do it, it is America.
There's the greatest entrepreneurs on earth,
the greatest capital markets, the ability to create things
that we could only dream of.
And it's really important, I think,
to have a positive, hopeful attitude
in what we can achieve moving forward
because the alternative is assuring the result
is to be a negative one.
Whereas having a hopeful, constructive outlook
of what is possible into the future,
even if you fall 50% short,
it's still an amazing outcome
that's significantly better than where we are now.
And this is where, as someone who has benefited greatly
from our country or my nation state's great relationship with the US.
I want the US to be a powerhouse and strong.
And I think the world is better for it.
Yeah, I mean, hey, I'm all for that as well.
I mean, I always tell everybody,
even though you see in the media that people rip on Americans
and policy like that,
I truly believe everybody secretly does love America
and it's just a better place when it does.
maybe that's just the red-blooded American in me. But I think when America is thriving,
the world's a great place. So hopefully we start to see that. But taking it a step farther,
right? I mean, we did have JD Vance and I think it was Besant as well, kind of saying that Bitcoin
needs to be a vital part of how the US grows out of this. We haven't seen them buy any Bitcoin yet.
Do you think that we're actually going to do it or are they going to do this budget neutral way that they've been describing for quite some time?
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All right, enough for me.
Let's get back to the show.
No, I think they'll be more overt with it.
They're just getting their ducks in a row between now and then.
They'll come out and be buying it.
I think one thing that may have been happening as well internally within the government,
I think there may have been a whole host of government agencies
selling their Bitcoin so that they didn't have to hand it over
to the Treasury.
And the Treasury's not asking for US dollars back
because they can print whatever they want on that,
but they've been asking for the Bitcoin.
So sort of just a side note, that might have been adding
to this downward sell pressure that we've seen at this point in time.
So you think it's like maybe the DOJ or the FBI
or some one of these entities instead of keeping the seized Bitcoin
that they've actually sold it off?
Is that what you're telling me here, Peter?
Look, if I'm running one of those entities under the government
and I get to keep the cash that I've got or I've got to hand over the Bitcoin,
I'm selling it in a heartbeat to keep that within my control.
That's just human nature.
So that's what they're doing.
I've got no doubt that it'd be in place.
And I haven't seen an executive order or a government mandate
saying that any Bitcoin that you've got explicitly cannot be sold
and we want to take control of it.
So until I see something like that,
I think Occam's raise, it tells you that
the most likely outcome is probably the obvious one.
I know what I'd be doing in that situation
if my budget depended on it.
I'd be selling the Bitcoin immediately
and I'd be keeping control of the cash
because at least you've got the cash
even though you don't have the Bitcoin.
Yeah, that's fair and I wouldn't doubt it either.
I mean, at the end of the day,
these governmental entities, they want to keep as much money as they can, whether that's at the end
of the day, that the money is the lever to keep control of that power. But, you know, with the
development of now, we haven't even really talked about the Bitcoin treasury companies and kind of
the institutional wave that we saw. You know, Saylor had a nice podcast with Danny not too long
ago about, you know, these Bitcoin treasury companies, they kind of went at it a little bit,
But I think like, you know, from my perspective, it was a very interesting and eye opening conversation between the two because Saylor was saying essentially 2025 was if you take it at ignoring the price at face value is probably one of the most bullish years in Bitcoin.
Obviously, with the price, that wasn't the case.
And, you know, with the treasury companies, same kind of thing, right?
We're having all these businesses pop up and now put Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
And majority of them kind of took a big beating, including MSTR.
So with the, I guess, knowing how the IS success or the rate of success had changed in 25,
how do you see institutions looking at Bitcoin, you know, here in 2026?
Look, I think the Bitcoin treasury companies serve a purpose in the market.
I think they create some demand for Bitcoin.
And the long and short of it is it's a leverage play on Bitcoin.
So when Bitcoin's been in a bear market trending down for the last four months,
those treasury companies have been in a worse position
and have come off substantially more.
And that's the reflexivity of investing in something
that leverages into a highly volatile asset.
Ironically, you would have avoided a lot of pain
if you just bought Bitcoin and sat on it.
but there is, I guess, a flavour of investing for everyone.
And what's interesting to me is when it's to the downside,
it absolutely crushes performance relative to Bitcoin.
But at the same time, when there is a pump in the Bitcoin price,
those treasury companies, my expectation is they will outperform Bitcoin moving forward.
And what's really interesting to me is as a terminal Bitcoiner,
meaning I can't get any more Bitcoin if I tried,
that's going to move the needle for me.
There's no other assets.
It's basically Bitcoin or bust.
But what I saw MetaPlanet do in December was quite remarkable.
With a small price impulse in Bitcoin from $82,000 to $96,000,
the MNAV of that company went from 0.86 to 1.26,
so it increased 50% in a bit over a month.
and they added just under 20% more Bitcoin per share
to their shareholders.
So if you were holding that one share of MetaPlanet,
their Bitcoin per share went up by just under 20%
in a single month on a very small impulse.
So I look at that and think,
what that gives me hope on
is that the Bitcoin treasury thesis is still sound,
meaning that they will be able to accrue more Bitcoin.
They'll be able to use market mechanisms
to increase their Bitcoin stack and increase their Bitcoin stack per share,
which as a terminal Bitcoiner is the most important thing that you can hope for.
Because when you're all out of Bitcoin, you can't get any more Bitcoin
because you don't have the ability to do it.
Having an investment structure that has the ability in good times
to add significant amounts of Bitcoin per share,
I think will become a very valuable tool.
And so although it's been on the wrong slope for the last,
call it six or seven months, when that worm turns,
we come out of the bear market into a bull market, I expect those stocks to perform very well,
much to the chagrin of the broader market. How do you think that the thesis, do you think the
thesis is going to change, if any? Like, are they going to try to, I guess, like Jack Maulers has
brought up buying other companies. Do you think that that's going to be the next wave where,
you know, because essentially it was just a lot of Bitcoin treasury companies basically like
making an announcement that they made one Bitcoin buy and then they've all kind of stopped. And then
we've also seen Saylor put cash on the balance sheet to ride some of this volatility. So how do
you see, do you see it, I guess, the thesis changing slightly here because of what we experienced last
year? I don't think the underlying thesis will change. I think the, you know, their mission is
to get as much Bitcoin as possible. That won't change. But I think we will drift in and out of
narratives as to how they achieve that end. So, you know, when we first watched this, we looked at
Saylor leveraging his treasury to buy Bitcoin. Then he figured out, I'll use Silvergate to borrow
230 million to leverage my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. Then he figured out, hang on a second,
there's a convertible note here. I'd like to use convertible notes because there's a lot less
liquidation risk with that. And then he used that. And then he figured out the at the market option,
the ATM for him to issue shares. Then he's moved into the preferreds. I think this is an evolution.
They're just going to figure out ways and means to extract capital from the broader market to go
and buy Bitcoin with it. And the fundamental thesis hasn't changed, but the mechanisms in which
they do that has completely changed. And this is where, when that worm turns, I'm very excited to
see how these preference shares work and add to the Bitcoin per share without diluting the
shareholders because i think it'll add a huge or significant amount of bitcoin per share which is
huge value add to the shareholders without diluting the shareholders with by issuing more shares so
that that to me is a killer product you know in an upbeat market will be a huge driver for them
yeah i mean essentially we've seen you know sailor have what is it like four of the top 10 biggest
ipo moments uh ever with with all the preferred offerings that he's he's brought out so i mean at
this point i i yeah i mean can can the guy keep doing it can he keep raising money to buy bitcoin
how are we why are we giving this man so much capital to keep buying bitcoin especially with
uh you know as down as sentiment is i mean reverting back to that like he had his third
biggest buy ever like not too long ago so i mean who the hell's lended this guy money peter
i think he's the best bitcoin salesman that we have and he would be very convincing if you were
sitting on a pile of cash to give it to him to go buy some Bitcoin.
So I love seeing his success.
I think he's a huge net benefit for the Bitcoin community.
We're all better for him being in there and him being so open
and sharing his ideas with us because I think it makes all of us
that much better for it.
But it is hard to believe that he is still the only major player
out there of significant size doing this and there is no competition
for him.
So I don't know how he keeps doing it, but it's fun to see him on the mission.
And I'm thrilled he's on our team.
Exactly, exactly.
Well, Peter, I'm thrilled you're on our team as well, man.
So why don't you tell people what you got going on and where they can find out more about you and listen to more of your stuff?
Thank you, mate.
Well, firstly, thanks for having me on.
If anyone wants further information on what we do, you can reach me at thebitcoinadvisor.com.
and that's advisor with an ER.
What we do is we help people self-custody their Bitcoin.
We talk our clients off the ledge and it's funny
we're having this conversation today because my phone
is lighting up talking to clients and effectively discussing,
look, it's never as bad as you think it is.
But we literally deliver that service to make sure
that if you're buying Bitcoin, you do it in the right way,
you self-custody it in a way that you can't lose it.
And we provide a framework and a service around a whole host
professionals who ensure that if something happens to you as the Bitcoiner, your family
will inherit your Bitcoin without any fear or favour. And that's fundamentally my mission in
life is to help get every Bitcoin off exchange. That will ultimately be very self-serving because
that'll push the price up dramatically. But our job here is to help people self-custody and
turns out it's a lot of fun talking to Bitcoiners and helping out with that. So if you want to reach
Rich is there or on Twitter at PeterBTCAdvisor.
Yeah, you guys do great work.
So I'll be sure to put all that in the show notes.
And Peter, thanks so much, brother.
Legend.
Thank you, mate.
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.
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