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You know, Bitcoin's trying to be co-opted,

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Saylor's trying to be co-opted,

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something along those lines.

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What do you mean?

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Like, this is the moronic bullshit.

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What are we talking about co-opted?

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The market is moving in the direction of

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two of the biggest holders in MSTR,

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and they're openly anti-Bitcoins.

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How are they anti-Bitcoin?

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How are they anti-Bitcoin?

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I don't care what Jamie Dimon thinks.

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The C-suite of the US government is pro-Bitcoin.

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Wall Street is pro-Bitcoin.

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Larry Fink is pro-Bitcoin.

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What that tells you if you're intelligent and you're smart enough to look at how price is moving,

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you can clearly see that there is a bed of buying going on.

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Your chance of getting to one Bitcoin goes further away from you.

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What's up, guys?

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Before we get started, I've realized that over 50,000 of you guys keep coming back for every single episode.

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And while I'm eternally grateful for you guys to keep coming back,

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I've realized that 79% of you guys are not subscribed.

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So I have one small ask before we get started.

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If you guys could hit that subscribe button and hit that like button to help send this interview and many more to the stratosphere, it would be greatly appreciated.

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All right, enough from me. Let's get into the show.

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Notes, apparently.

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Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, recurring guest, British HODL.

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I had to bring you back on because everybody's freaking out, man.

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And looks like MSTR, all the Bitcoin treasury companies, they're decoupled from Bitcoin price and it's all over, right?

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So we should just pack it up.

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Saylor got 3% of the total supply and it's done from here, right?

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How many coffees are you in right now?

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That's what I want to know.

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Only three.

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Only three.

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At what time is it right now where you're at?

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It is 8.04 a.m., man.

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I come in with the energy hot, British.

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You got to know this about me, man.

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And what time did you wake up today?

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I woke up at 7, so it was a little late, honestly.

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So you've got 600 milligrams of caffeine in one hour.

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Awesome.

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Look, I'm a different animal and the same beast, many are saying.

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Let's go.

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Let's go.

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Yeah, I mean, what do you want to talk about?

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Look, you know, we've got crybabies all over the place.

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What do you want?

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Let's talk about them.

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Yeah, so tell me a little bit more about this,

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because everybody is kind of thinking that, hey, you know, these Bitcoin treasury companies are

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coming online. I think there's over 170 now at the time of this recording. And if you look at how

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they were performing, everybody, you know, had the general sense when it was basically MSTR,

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maybe there was the Metaplanets and some of these others. But for the most part, all eyes were on

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MSTR. And now it seems like there's so many different companies that, you know, this quote

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unquote decoupling from the Bitcoin price is getting more, I guess, let's call it notoriety

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or more publicity. And everybody is worried that there's not going to be room and they miss the

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boat maybe on these Bitcoin treasury companies. Now, I know you're the MSTR bull of the MSTR

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bulls over here, but where do you see this going? Do you see others failing in an attempt to emulate

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sailor or do you see uh you know it it just kind of i guess not being as predictable as as many think

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so let's let's just let's just frame what people what these people that are complaining have done

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first right because we can then lay the groundwork and once we understand what they've done we can

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then figure out whether their concerns are of merit or not so step number one what they've done is

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they've sold their bitcoin right they had big i'm assuming that they were smart enough to hold

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bitcoin they've sold their bitcoin step number two they have then gone and exchanged that that

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bitcoin for a 7xm nav treasury company so what they've done is effectively if bitcoin's a hurdle

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rate, they have given over one Bitcoin and exchanged it for 0.14 Bitcoin.

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Right.

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Now, those treasury, because all they were seeing on Twitter or everywhere else was,

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OK, cool, XYZ treasury company is going to perform, is going to go absolutely nuts.

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So they exchanged one Bitcoin for 0.14 Bitcoin with the hope that whichever nerd is running

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whichever treasury company is going to be able to make up that difference.

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Right.

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because bitcoin's a hurdle rate so you've got to get you've got to accumulate the bitcoin so then

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these treasury companies that are 7x m nav have decided to compress that m nav down to 2x

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who would have thought when their main business operation is selling the m nav to buy more bitcoin

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right and so they've sold their they've sold down their stock price in order to buy more bitcoin

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The market has sold down their stock price because it's the summer.

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And for decades, the overall investment market has a saying called sell in May and go away for a reason.

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And now what these guys have basically proceeded to do is shit themselves because they've come to the realization that they've sold their Bitcoin and now they have to actually wait.

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They have to actually be an investor and actually wait, because what they were hoping for was that 7xMNAV company was going to shoot to a 14xMNAV company the day after they decided to buy.

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So really what we're facing is a psychosis of utter morons when it comes to investing.

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Right. And now they're shouting about it on Twitter and everywhere else.

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And, you know, they're entertaining for real investors and their quote unquote signal for other retail morons that are listening to this.

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The reality of the situation is this.

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MNAV is going to contract and expand around the Bitcoin stack that these companies have.

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It's never going to be fixed.

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So at some point, it's going to be 7x. At some point, it's going to be a 2x. At another point, it's going to be a 5x. It's a constantly moving number. Combine all of that with the fact that we've now got the sell in may and go away period, which is historically the lowest volatility and the lowest volumes in the markets.

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And these people are going, why is this happening?

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Well, morons, we got the lowest volatility and the lowest volumes in the market, not just in Bitcoin, but across the whole broad spectrum of the market.

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You've seen the Nasdaq pull back. You've seen all these things happen.

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So, yeah, look, it's completely normal for one of these treasury companies to have its MNAV, you know, cycle around whatever Bitcoin is doing.

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And everyone's got to realize like once you make this trade, the worst part about it is this.

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This is like the two standard deviation moron basically, right?

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So they get into – they sell their Bitcoin.

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They get into a 7X MNAV treasury company.

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That 7X MNAV treasury company compresses down to 2X.

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They look on Twitter and now everyone's talking about another 5X MNAV treasury company.

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So they sell at a 2XM NAV and they buy the 5XM NAV treasury company, further diluting their Bitcoin position.

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And they just keep doing this until they get back to where they were, which is no Bitcoin.

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Yeah. And you know what's interesting?

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You're talking about these Bitcoin treasury companies kind of in general, but obviously, you know, MSTR is a different animal, to say the very least.

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I mean, if you look back at Michael Saylor's buys, I think there's only two weeks since Donald Trump got elected that strategy hasn't bought Bitcoin.

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So they keep just adding to that Bitcoin per share.

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Now, it's kind of chopped sideways as well with that, right?

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There hasn't really been much of, you know, a move in the upward trend.

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And obviously, Saylor's doing a bunch of different techniques with the strike, strive, stride, all of these different traditional financial tools to buy more Bitcoin.

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Now, how does he keep doing this?

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Is there ever going to be a way where Saylor is not going to be able to get more debt issued?

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Or is it just essentially all of these investors just going into, you know, whatever type of product that Saylor's putting out and buying all of it that is allowing him to basically just keep buying more Bitcoin?

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Like, where does it stop here?

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Well, firstly, he's not issued any debt for months, right?

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Because a preferred stock sale is not classified as debt.

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what he's offered is he will pay a particular dividend and on certain products give a call

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option on the price of mstr and the preferred income markets are basically looking at that

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going yeah i kind of like that um and those products obviously have just launched so they've

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they've gone out and offered a uh you know a palette of of these offerings and we'll see which

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ones the markets like the best um but they're just getting started right mstr is the only company

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Name one other treasury company that's doing anything else besides ATMs.

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Yeah, you have a very hard time doing it.

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Right.

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So strategy has decided that they are going to be the ones to tap the fixed income markets.

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They are going to be the winners because traditional finance and likes the biggest player in the game.

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They have 600,000 Bitcoin now, 3% of the supply as of yesterday.

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And look, at the end of the day, besides 21 Capital, which basically got 42,000 Bitcoin donated to it by its founding members, all of these treasury companies combined have bought less than 10 to 15% of strategy's total stack.

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and everyone's coming here going oh xyz company is going to compete with strategy kiss my ass

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are they going to compete with strategy it's over strategy wins that's it it's as simple as that all

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these other ones are now going to play for who's going to be the second and i like the game right

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i own i own pretty much like i don't know i own like nine of them but it's with less than one

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percent of my network it doesn't matter it's an insignificant amount um and i'm buying them really

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to keep my activity bias at bay and i invested in i invested in i want to be very clear as we

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talk about this i invested in the pipe deal for nakamoto which i think is the only treasury

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company that brings anything unique beyond selling an atm well let's let's dive into that in a minute

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First, I want to go into MetaPlanet because it seems like Saylor brings up Japan at every single, whether it's his earnings call or his talks at Bitcoin Prague, all of these things.

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He's always mentioning Japan and MetaPlanet.

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And he kind of describes Japan as almost like the perfect market for these types of products, what he's doing right now.

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So, I mean, it's going to be a long ways away, and I don't think that MetaPlanet will ever catch strategy.

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But he said, you know, this is words from Sailor that if anybody were to ever come close, it would be MetaPlanet.

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Now, listen, it's the gentlemanly, the best thing to do to basically complement.

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And by the way, I'm not saying that Sailor's lying here.

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Dylan and Simon have done, and the whole team there have done a phenomenal job.

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I own MetaPlanet stock, right?

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I think they've done a phenomenal job at accumulating Bitcoin at the pace that they've been accumulating at.

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So if you're going to compliment anyone, those are the guys to compliment because they've done a great job.

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And the Japanese markets are really, really good for this type of product because they don't have a Bitcoin ETF.

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You cannot put Bitcoin in a retirement account.

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and if you buy Bitcoin and sell it, you got a 55% tax.

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So why wouldn't you go and buy Bitcoin exposure through MetaPlanet

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until something else shows up and then they're going to have to compete with that?

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So we'll see.

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But they've done a phenomenal job.

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Yeah, I mean, they definitely have.

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And Dylan, he's just a bright guy on the scene and everything like that.

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He's exploding, getting more Bitcoin on their balance sheet at every other turn as well.

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So, I mean, I really, you know, I admire what those guys are doing over there.

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But you brought up Nakamoto in this pipe deal, dude.

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Why do you think that this is, or no, tell me why this is different than any other ATM product that you're seeing out there.

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Because obviously, you know, it is kind of, the way I look at these treasury companies is there's some like, you know, similar scientific that have an underlying, you know, business that was around for some time.

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And then they decided to put Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

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Metaplanet could maybe be in that as well.

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strategy as well. But it seems like Nakamoto is just basically their whole

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company is just raising debt to buy more Bitcoin. So tell me how this is different and like,

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yeah, unveil the curtain a little bit for us to help us understand how this one could potentially

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be pretty different. Yeah. So, okay. So what did I say to start with? I said,

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all of these treasury companies, their only method of acquiring Bitcoin right now is basically what

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strategy has been doing for three years now, right? They've not come out with anything innovative.

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In fact, I saw a video of one of these CEOs begging people to buy the stock because it was

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under a 1MNAP, right? I can't remember which company it was. But I mean, I don't think that's,

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I don't think that's good.

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But look, at the end of the day, what David Bailey has done and what Tyler and UTXO have

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done is proven that they know how to set up strategy.

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They know how to set up execution.

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They know how to get local regulations.

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And they know how to identify markets where there is enough trapped capital to actually

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make these companies work. They've proven it in Japan. They've proven it in, I think it's Sweden

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now. They've proven it in, or is it Norway? I think it might be Norway with H100. They've proven

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it in the UK with SWC. They've got a proven track record for launching these things. And they've got

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the one thing that even strategy doesn't have. What if I told you you never had to sell your

180
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Bitcoin today. Salt Lending, secure, trusted, proven. Which is the media engine. The fact that

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they can go anywhere in the world and create an army, a frenzy of Bitcoin attention anywhere at

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any time, right? That's extremely powerful. And you cannot just go and buy that amount of

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marketing. What's everyone going to do? They're going to have like 17 different Bitcoin conferences

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on an annual basis. It's not going to work. The biggest one is going to win. He's got the first

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mover advantage and he got the most dominating business and dominating marketing in that space They about like it is phenomenal what they done And if you don think that they going to use that marketing engine to benefit Nakamoto I mean you got

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something else coming. I can absolutely foresee that anywhere there is a Nakamoto set up treasury

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company, there is a Bitcoin conference that is going to take that local market by absolute storm.

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And so I think they've proven their case. I think they've demonstrated that they can do it.

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And I think that the media engine behind it is extremely valuable, which none of these other treasury companies have.

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Just wait.

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You know, again, look, I'm a shareholder of Nakamoto, but I absolutely don't have any advisory shares.

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I absolutely don't get a paycheck from them or any other treasury company.

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I speak strictly as an investor and what I would want to see.

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I don't have any insider information. I don't do any of that. Right. When it comes to treasury

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companies. And that's another thing that's been quite interesting as well to see like, quote,

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unquote, you know, Bitcoin influencers basically like take jobs at treasury companies is is kind

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of interesting, you know, to me. I don't know. I want to see how that sort of shakes out. Right.

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It's like you've got these treasury companies that have said, you know, we're going to become

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a Bitcoin treasury company. We're going to do exactly what strategy did for the last three

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years. And it's the only thing that we're going to do because we can't do anything else. Because

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if anyone wants to issue any debt or buy any debt, they're going to buy strategy debt. So the only

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thing we can do is pump the stock and do the ATM. You know what we're going to do? We're going to go

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hire a Bitcoin influencer as if retail has enough money to do this. And it just like it's it's I

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I don't know. It's weird to me, right? It's just weird.

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Nakamoto and David Bailey and Tyler at UTXO and the whole team there have proven that they can actually think past, you know, the retail frame and actually create incentive-based treasury companies that forces trapped capital into them.

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That's what's unique there.

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And then you add on the media engine, forget about it.

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Yeah, I mean, it's interesting you bring up the media engine because I mean, of course, I knew that with David Bailey, but I never really thought of the true advantages that you're lining out here. And just for the record, dude, these Bitcoin influencers that are getting asked to be in treasury companies, I'm not one of them, apparently, I guess I'm not pretty enough. Maybe it's the shitty mustache or the backwards hat. I don't know, man, but I'm not getting asked to join any of these, these ones. But I do see that trend. And I mean, I've always kind of thought that this makes sense.

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because if you look at sailor right i mean he has you know millions of followers on twitter

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you know anytime he goes and talks anywhere everybody's all ears on him like really trying

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to dive in and you know he's been on the biggest of biggest podcasts and everything like that except

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for joe rogan which i'm sure will come at some point in time but uh you know adding these other

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guys of course they're not going to be on the you know uh stardom so to speak of sailor but

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I always thought, okay, this makes sense for a little bit more marketing. But of course, with

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Bitcoin Magazine behind Nakamoto, I mean, these conferences, it makes a million times more sense

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as you're lining it out that way. So I mean, I definitely hear you with all of that. But I mean,

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with- Let me say one thing. Let me say one thing. Let me say one. This is going to be

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the controversial take. You ready? Okay. If your treasury company is not backed by UTXO, Nakamoto,

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and the Bitcoin conference engine, Bitcoin influencers are going to end up being the

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single worst investment that any of these treasury companies make. Damn. All right. Well, I guess

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don't pick on me then. I don't want British Hottel coming for my neck if I'm getting the phone call.

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I'm not going to come for anyone's neck. I haven't mentioned anyone, but everyone knows who I'm

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talking about, right? Everyone knows the list. But they're going to be the single worst investment

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for any of these treasury companies. And I would probably prefer that they took that, you know,

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I mean, 250K or whatever the fuck they're paying them and bought Bitcoin with it. It's probably

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going to be a better roi do you think that this is the potential of like the black swan maybe of

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this cycle like last time we saw ftx celsius block fi like do you think this time it's the

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treasury companies that are just you know not getting enough money to to keep the atm printing

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basically no because they're tiny what they don't matter at all it's going to be great because if

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they're trading at a you know a 0.6 m nav or whatever at some point and they've got let's say

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they got four or five thousand Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Strategy just rolls up and says,

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right, we now own you for MSTR stock. And every shareholder is going to say, yeah, thank fuck.

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And that's it. Now strategy acquires four or five thousand Bitcoin, you know, from multiple

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different places if they manage to get that many Bitcoin in the first place. Right. Like, no. And

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also the thing that you've got to remember is, is that just because if there is a treasury company

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bear market doesn't mean that they have to actually sell the Bitcoin because the Bitcoin's

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unencumbered. They're selling the stock in order to buy the Bitcoin. They're not issuing debt.

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So they don't have to sell the Bitcoin unless it gets to the point where they don't have enough

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runway to manage their running costs. And in that scenario, every shareholder is going to say,

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let's sell to strategy or let's sell to one of the other big guys. So no, I don't think so.

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That's what I mean. By the way, I support all of them. No matter what I'm saying, I support all of them because they're all buying Bitcoin.

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Right. Like they're all they're all their goal of, you know, whichever board sat up and said, you know, we've got enough Zins in our mouth.

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Let's go buy Bitcoin. They're buying Bitcoins. Right. So it's all good from that perspective.

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I just think that, you know, when it comes to treasury companies, like you got to be, if you're looking at a long-term investment, which is what I do, I'm not a trader.

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So I'm not trading in and out of these things.

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If you're looking at a long-term investment, you got to be very, very careful and decide very carefully which ones you, which ones you're interested in.

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Yeah.

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So, you know, when we're getting down there and I mean, I guess I agree in that sense.

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Cause I mean, of course, unless, you know, strategy just goes belly up, which I find it very hard to believe that.

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How?

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how no no how yeah i don't i don't see it i i personally just don't see it but i mean like i

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said if strategy were to go under uh you know belly up that would be the only one that could

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potentially cause this black swan event i guess in this scenario just because of how much bitcoin

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they have but they don't but all the bitcoins unencumbered and they've got a what is it a 20

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debt ratio. Who cares? They have played the game so well and strategy has done so well at playing

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this game to accumulate 3% of the Bitcoin. It's done. It's game over. But I thought a couple of

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years ago, everybody in TradFi was saying when Bitcoin was crashing, strategy was going to go

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belly up there, British. Yeah, but these are idiots you're talking about again. At the end of

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the day, what people didn't realize was that, you know, strategy was not issuing debt in order to

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buy this Bitcoin. They were ATMing the stock, right? And now the amount of convertible debt,

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you know, that they've got load up that they've got on the balance sheet is like 20% and it's

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unencumbered to the Bitcoin. And now they've issued these preferred products and they're

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offering like 9% dividend yield, which is the highest one, which basically they can turn off

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at any time that they're going to pay by ATMing the stock. And they've also said, if Saylor said

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this, I'm glad he clarified this at the last one of his talks that he did, but you don't have to

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buy Bitcoin to increase Bitcoin per share, right? If they want to go and let's say they've got $10

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billion or whatever from one of these products once they get rolling, they can just buy the stock.

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They can buy the common stock and that would increase the Bitcoin per share ratio too.

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yeah and i mean they're using there i mean they're being i i mean i don't think anybody can really

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catch sailor and even get remotely close maybe even not even halfway to the amount of bitcoin

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that they've got on the balance sheet at this point in time but here's why though right here

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the reason why is very important why they can't do that is because every bitcoin that any one of

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these other companies buys pushes sailor further ahead because for the first time in history you

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don't have to stock pick, which is what's beautiful for the average investor, because you don't have

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to sit there and go, you know, which Bitcoin influencer is going to pump the stock next.

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You can just buy the Bitcoin. Well, there you go. I mean, then that makes all the sense in the

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world. But I mean, you know, we did see something interesting that I think is maybe a wrinkle in all

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of this with Intel the other day, where now the US allegedly owns like 10% of all of Intel.

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Now, there's obviously the conspiracy theories on Bitcoin Twitter where the U.S. government is going to buy up strategy and then that's going to be the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.

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Is that a potential like another potential black swan event that you foresee or do you think that that is just completely blown in a proportion?

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Why would that be a black swan event if the U.S. said, you know, we're going to take capital and buy up 10% of strategy?

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well i i think people would then think you know bitcoin's trying to be co-opted sailors trying to

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be co-opted something along those lines where people would what do you mean this is the moronic

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bullshit that these idiots come out what are we talking about co-opted there it's an it's it's a

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U.S. publicly listed company. Like, what more co-opted could you get? It's, like, I don't

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understand these idiots. Like, it is a American publicly listed audited company. It's the highest

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form of scrutiny in America, highest form of regulatory scrutiny in America,

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which is the highest form of scrutiny for any capital markets anywhere in the world. That's why

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America has the best capital markets, because it does provide the most amount of scrutiny and

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transparency and the most amount of trust. So what are we talking about? BlackRock's in the game.

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The president is in the game.

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What do you mean, co-opted?

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I knew I had to get you going here, man.

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I had to get you going, British.

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I mean, but what do you think of, I mean, like all of this?

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Obviously, we've got, you know, everybody seemingly bending the knee to Bitcoin these days.

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I mean, we've got Goldman Sachs now just doubled up their Bitcoin holdings.

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And the interesting part is like we've got Vanguard and JP Morgan as two of the biggest

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holders in MSTR.

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This bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody and

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off exchanges.

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We all saw what happened last time with the huge blowoffs.

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We had Celsius, FTX, all of the big dogs blowing up.

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Well, this time everybody's being smart and holding their Bitcoin in self-custody.

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00:28:48,661 --> 00:28:52,361
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316
00:28:52,461 --> 00:28:53,261
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317
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318
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319
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320
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321
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322
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323
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00:29:22,141 --> 00:29:28,221
enough from me. Let's get back to the show. And they're openly anti-Bitcoin. So I mean-

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How are they anti-Bitcoin? They're openly pushing people into MSTR. How are they anti-Bitcoin?

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Well, Vanguard doesn't let their clients, I think, buy the ETFs as it stands right now. And then

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Jamie Dimon, I mean, JP Morgan does, but Jamie Dimon is just openly against Bitcoin in the media.

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But what did he say, though? He said the demand is there, so we will allow people to do it.

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I don't care what Jamie Dimon thinks. The market is moving in the direction of Bitcoin.

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The president is moving in the direction of Bitcoin. The C-suite of the U.S. government is pro-Bitcoin.

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The C-suite of Wall Street is pro-Bitcoin. Larry Fink is pro-Bitcoin. Vanguard is pro-Bitcoin because they own MSTR.

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This is just like, this is this.

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And by the way, Charles Schwab just changed their tune on Bitcoin.

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Like, all of this is pro-Bitcoin.

336
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The problem that people have on Twitter is that it's not being reflected in price action minute by minute like yesterday.

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But if you're smart enough to understand how, hold on a second.

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Someone's fucking trying to disturb us.

339
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Let me just turn this off.

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If you're sitting there going, you know, and you're smart enough to look at how price is moving, you can clearly see that there is a bed of buying going on.

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Because even when Galaxy Digital dumped, you know, half a percent of the overall supply onto the market over a few days, it had a 3% price impact.

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And what that tells you, if you're intelligent, is that there is a consistent bed of buy orders in the market.

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And that's how institutional and that's how big buyers play the game.

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They're not retail.

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They're not Twitter.

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Twitter would say, oh, it's gone up 6%.

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I better buy now before I miss out on the next 10%.

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Institutional doesn't do that.

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It puts a trailing buy order in place, and it just sits there and waits until the market pulls back.

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well i mean we do we we have had like i guess the record of consecutive days over a hundred

351
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thousand and obviously you know at the time of this recording we've got bitcoin at like 109 000

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it's crashing and burning so i mean basically it's over at this which is another fucking stupid

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thing like imagine we had the usual pullbacks that we have in previous markets like 30 these people

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would be jumping off cliffs and stuff like what are we talking about this is a 13 pullback in the

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months of lowest volume lowest liquidity when like and it's 13 not 30 which is what the usual is

356
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and september is usually is like i think the only average month in all of bitcoin's history that has

357
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like a negative return on that that month so i mean about august no well it's so they always say

358
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september so it's always down in september and then october so it seems like we're kind of going

359
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into that direction that general trend where you know september might be a little choppy sideways

360
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and then you know we got uptober and moonvember then then everything everybody's happy you know

361
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yeah listen it's uh there's so many idiots i'm so disappointed by the by this new cohort of owners

362
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like i kind of i kind of wish they would sell to be honest with you well do you think that there's

363
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i mean you know with bitcoin's new price action right obviously when it crossed at 100k it brought

364
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in a lot more people and you know it seems like that is kind of the new wave i mean maybe they

365
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came in just right at 100k towards the end of last year uh and this is kind of their first cycle so

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to speak but you know you lined out all the buying pressure i mean obviously we've been talking about

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the treasury companies these guys are buying every single month and then we do have the price where

368
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it is right now where it's pulling back you know we've had some whales yeah take some off the top

369
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but you know what's going to be that catalyst they just didn't just a lot just the two whales

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that we know about, it's over 100,000 coins.

371
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Yeah.

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That's just the two that we know about.

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Like, so, you know, that's a lot of selling pressure

374
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that needs to be sucked up.

375
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And at some point it will be.

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That's the one thing I've been surprised with so far

377
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is how long this rotation of ownership has taken.

378
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And I said this a couple of years ago,

379
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like there will be a rotation of holders And I been very surprised at how significant it it been yeah and you know it seems like that the pressure the buying pressure is there like

380
00:34:13,462 --> 00:34:17,702
anytime anybody wants to sell those coins are getting scooped up almost immediately i mean we

381
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saw it over the weekend right i mean when those 24 000 coins i think it was got dumped on the

382
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market i mean it went down like five six thousand dollars which is maybe you know three four percent

383
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and then immediately went back to almost where it was.

384
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So everybody was just kind of waiting to buy all that.

385
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They see it.

386
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Everybody's buying all back up.

387
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But with the changing of hands that we're starting to see

388
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and the big players starting to come in,

389
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do you see this kind of changing the way that we're going to see cycles

390
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in the future?

391
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Because strategy is not selling these, like you lined out,

392
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these treasury companies, the guys with the big monies,

393
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they're not going to be traders.

394
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They're going to be a little bit more, I guess, call it like diamond hand like the meme.

395
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But is that going to be like lowering the downside risk but maybe hurting the upside volatility?

396
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Or is it just going to cause this supply shock?

397
00:35:11,862 --> 00:35:19,342
Yeah, look, there's two ways to really have like a major bear market, right?

398
00:35:19,422 --> 00:35:25,002
Number one is if people start dumping Bitcoin, right?

399
00:35:25,002 --> 00:35:25,782
That's number one.

400
00:35:26,602 --> 00:35:31,202
I don't think that the buyers that are now holding would start dumping Bitcoin.

401
00:35:34,541 --> 00:35:38,041
ETFs are an interesting one because ETFs don't own it.

402
00:35:38,442 --> 00:35:40,402
There's an end user on the ETF.

403
00:35:40,541 --> 00:35:47,162
So we've got to try and figure out who is the end user of these ETFs and what their holding patterns are like.

404
00:35:47,561 --> 00:35:54,342
The second way that a bear market can happen is if this consistent buying of that bed of buying buy orders that I was talking about,

405
00:35:54,342 --> 00:35:55,722
if all of that just disappears.

406
00:35:55,722 --> 00:36:02,202
right if there is a coordinated let's just pause buying and let's say for example let's say it's

407
00:36:02,202 --> 00:36:08,122
200 million dollars a day of buying orders right if all of that just disappears and it goes down

408
00:36:08,122 --> 00:36:12,762
to five million dollars a day you're going to see the price come come down real quick because price

409
00:36:12,762 --> 00:36:19,242
is of course set at the margin right so the question then becomes a game theoretic question

410
00:36:19,242 --> 00:36:27,762
which is who blinks first does if the price comes down 30 does a big player go you know what no no

411
00:36:27,762 --> 00:36:35,142
no that's enough for us i know we kind of agreed to let it drop 60 70 80 percent but 30 is enough

412
00:36:35,142 --> 00:36:40,602
for us let's start putting in some buy orders right who blinks first i don't know that that's

413
00:36:40,602 --> 00:36:45,482
going to be another another thing so i think that it's really hard to tell with this cycle because

414
00:36:45,482 --> 00:36:48,581
of the actual institutional buying and the price action that we've seen.

415
00:36:48,962 --> 00:36:54,202
And of course, you may not see a blow off top because if retail is not involved, retail

416
00:36:54,202 --> 00:36:56,642
is the one that creates blow off tops, not institutions.

417
00:36:56,882 --> 00:36:59,222
Institutions don't create blow off tops, right?

418
00:36:59,242 --> 00:37:00,382
Because they're not chasing the trade.

419
00:37:00,502 --> 00:37:01,242
They're waiting for.

420
00:37:01,242 --> 00:37:06,521
And really, that's why we've seen this, you know, stair step up, consolidate, stair step

421
00:37:06,521 --> 00:37:14,322
up, consolidate method or price action that's in the market, not this chase the bull, which

422
00:37:14,322 --> 00:37:15,302
is what retail does.

423
00:37:15,482 --> 00:37:37,842
So it depends how long it takes retail to get into the game. If retail doesn't get into the game, we're not going to see the type of bear market that we've seen before because there won't be a blow off top. Markets are typically symmetrical, right? So in order to see a massive bear market, you've got to see a massive blow off top. And if that blow off top doesn't happen, then you're not going to see the massive bear market.

424
00:37:37,842 --> 00:37:44,302
so you're telling me that the you know this that spaghetti boy is right with all of this right

425
00:37:44,302 --> 00:37:48,422
where we're gonna have diminishing returns is that what you're saying british that uh you know

426
00:37:48,422 --> 00:37:54,642
we're having this power law where we're converging here or what well firstly spaghetti boys uh which

427
00:37:54,642 --> 00:38:01,642
by the way we're kind of friends now i don't know really yeah i completely disagree with it

428
00:38:01,642 --> 00:38:07,561
yeah no he uh he was pretty nice on twitter so i was like okay well so what do you do at this

429
00:38:07,561 --> 00:38:13,541
point i basically i basically destroyed your entire uh social media presence and now you want

430
00:38:13,541 --> 00:38:21,202
to be friends like what am i gonna do let's be friends no problem so it's like look he's got a

431
00:38:21,202 --> 00:38:28,982
the power the power opinion model basically has a spread of somewhere between 50 000 and 500 000

432
00:38:28,982 --> 00:38:36,322
right that's like the bottom and top bands sure you want to be right and say the power opinion

433
00:38:36,322 --> 00:38:40,842
It's true if it ends up at, you know, 340 and then comes down to 80.

434
00:38:41,021 --> 00:38:41,842
All right, cool.

435
00:38:41,922 --> 00:38:42,402
No problem.

436
00:38:42,561 --> 00:38:43,862
Is it useful for anyone?

437
00:38:44,322 --> 00:38:45,362
In my opinion, no.

438
00:38:46,762 --> 00:38:50,902
There are people that, you know, are religious fanatics about the power opinion, and they

439
00:38:50,902 --> 00:38:53,842
tell me that they're going to sell if we get above 200,000.

440
00:38:54,102 --> 00:38:55,561
All right, that's cool, too.

441
00:38:55,922 --> 00:38:59,722
But what happens if you get above 200,000 and then a strategic reserve is announced

442
00:38:59,722 --> 00:39:01,122
and a million coins are being purchased?

443
00:39:02,342 --> 00:39:03,081
Tough luck.

444
00:39:04,942 --> 00:39:05,742
This is crazy.

445
00:39:05,742 --> 00:39:10,462
I'm just at the point now where it's like, what is the point?

446
00:39:10,581 --> 00:39:11,541
Like, let them sell.

447
00:39:11,902 --> 00:39:15,242
In fact, I want to encourage people to sell at this point.

448
00:39:15,302 --> 00:39:17,722
I want to say get to minus one Bitcoin.

449
00:39:18,021 --> 00:39:20,682
That's going to be my new thing.

450
00:39:21,302 --> 00:39:22,722
Get to negative one Bitcoin.

451
00:39:23,462 --> 00:39:25,622
So is getting to one Bitcoin done with?

452
00:39:25,622 --> 00:39:27,882
Are we just packing it up?

453
00:39:28,041 --> 00:39:28,302
Nobody.

454
00:39:29,561 --> 00:39:31,081
It's been interesting, hasn't it?

455
00:39:31,081 --> 00:39:35,162
Like at the end of the day, you know, I June.

456
00:39:35,402 --> 00:39:48,962
So the get to one Bitcoin message really like had I had to turn on the F-35 fighter jets on that message like June 15th, 2023, because that was the day that BlackRock filed for the ETF.

457
00:39:50,021 --> 00:39:57,422
And I remember distinctly I was living in I was living in South America at the time when we crossed 100,000 in December.

458
00:39:57,422 --> 00:40:12,061
And I remember that night, like, sitting on my balcony, looking over the whole city, feeling really good, and then also feeling really shit at the same time.

459
00:40:12,122 --> 00:40:24,142
It was a very bittersweet moment for me because at $100,000, it's like, get to one Bitcoin, really applies to like 0.4% of the world at this point.

460
00:40:24,142 --> 00:40:30,541
and then you know i i was saying last year and a year before that that we're gonna go through this

461
00:40:30,541 --> 00:40:37,122
period of pricing out certain levels of millionaires basically you can't get to one bitcoin

462
00:40:37,122 --> 00:40:40,942
on a hundred thousand when it's a hundred thousand if you're not a millionaire i'm sorry it's not

463
00:40:40,942 --> 00:40:47,682
happening right so that's out of the way but really i know people that are like worth two or

464
00:40:47,682 --> 00:40:51,982
three or four million dollars that can't buy a hundred thousand dollar thing that they just

465
00:40:51,982 --> 00:40:56,402
learned about yesterday because their property portfolio, which is where 90% of those people

466
00:40:56,402 --> 00:41:00,682
have their money and where their wealth is created. What are you going to do? Sell a bedroom to buy

467
00:41:00,682 --> 00:41:06,242
one Bitcoin? It's not going to happen. So it's a bittersweet thing. I still think it should be

468
00:41:06,242 --> 00:41:12,482
the North Star of get to one Bitcoin. But the reality is now my message is kind of pivoting

469
00:41:12,482 --> 00:41:18,521
towards people who have got many, many, many times more than $1 million. And I think that

470
00:41:18,521 --> 00:41:27,662
they should get to about a 24% allocation of their overall net worth. And it's hard for them.

471
00:41:27,782 --> 00:41:31,422
Like if you've got a $10 million, let's say you've got a $10 million business, right? So your net

472
00:41:31,422 --> 00:41:39,102
worth is $10 million. What are you going to do to get to 24%? Like you really need to start

473
00:41:39,102 --> 00:41:46,462
planning that. So yeah, I mean, look, at the end of the day, to get to one Bitcoin, I've never been

474
00:41:46,462 --> 00:41:50,982
a happy hippie i've never been saying to people that you're just always gonna get you know the

475
00:41:50,982 --> 00:41:56,041
chance to do this i told people time is gonna run out and you know i sat there looking at the whole

476
00:41:56,041 --> 00:42:03,382
city going fucking time has run out man so it's done the get to one bitcoin is done i mean i always

477
00:42:03,382 --> 00:42:08,862
love that message though even even right now even though it's it's it's very difficult because i

478
00:42:08,862 --> 00:42:15,662
think the message of oh get to you know 0.01 bitcoin or or whatever it is i mean i think that's

479
00:42:15,662 --> 00:42:20,842
just like undershooting it and i think you know even though we've had it let's say what it is it's

480
00:42:20,842 --> 00:42:27,222
limp dick that's what it is i mean but if you look at like the wallets right because everything is

481
00:42:27,222 --> 00:42:33,822
is public in bitcoin there's 13 million wallets with 1 million sats or more and there's 59 million

482
00:42:33,822 --> 00:42:40,001
millionaires globally so you know even though we're at 100 000 109 000 i still think we're

483
00:42:40,001 --> 00:42:45,442
we're still fairly early we got a long ways to go and you know shooting for something like

484
00:42:45,442 --> 00:42:49,402
one Bitcoin, okay, maybe the average person, they're not going to be able to get there.

485
00:42:49,762 --> 00:42:55,442
But I think it's better to try to shoot for something like that and not have the weak hands

486
00:42:55,442 --> 00:42:59,102
that we're kind of seeing where, you know, you get the power opinion out here and they're like,

487
00:42:59,202 --> 00:43:03,342
oh, well, it's above 200,000, so I'm going to sell. And then all of a sudden they're sitting

488
00:43:03,342 --> 00:43:07,462
here, you know, with their hands in their pants, like, what the hell did I do? And why did I just

489
00:43:07,462 --> 00:43:13,561
sell off at this place before Bitcoin went on its generational run? I mean, I think I still

490
00:43:13,561 --> 00:43:19,081
resonate with that message and i think that people still still try to get to that one bitcoin

491
00:43:19,081 --> 00:43:23,882
yeah me too i think it should should always be the north star i think before you should always

492
00:43:23,882 --> 00:43:29,782
say like before i do anything stupid i'm going to get to one bitcoin right um and i i think it

493
00:43:29,782 --> 00:43:34,622
should always be everyone's north star not you know 0.1 bitcoin i think that's weak limp dick

494
00:43:34,622 --> 00:43:43,122
shit. I mean, I mean, amen to that. But, you know, now I want to dive into a little bit more

495
00:43:43,122 --> 00:43:49,942
about the overall kind of macro economy. We've got Powell about to cut interest rates. And I think

496
00:43:49,942 --> 00:43:56,142
the easy though, easy though. Why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece of paper?

497
00:43:56,142 --> 00:44:01,722
It doesn't make sense. You need a foolproof solution. And I've got it for you. You could

498
00:44:01,722 --> 00:44:08,122
get this as low as $25. And if you use promo code green candle, you can get 10% off being around for

499
00:44:08,122 --> 00:44:14,682
12 years. They've engineered the perfect and most easy to use solution. I've partnered with crypto

500
00:44:14,682 --> 00:44:21,122
steel to offer for you guys just that it is the cheapest and most secure way to store your C phrase.

501
00:44:21,122 --> 00:44:27,061
I don't know about you guys, but I don't have too many things where I think one ton is going to fall

502
00:44:27,061 --> 00:44:33,802
on this, but it could survive all of that and more. So go to CryptoSteel.com. You can use promo

503
00:44:33,802 --> 00:44:41,521
code GreenCandle. You can get 10% off your entire order if you go there today. So go ahead and

504
00:44:41,521 --> 00:44:47,342
protect your generational wealth and do it with CryptoSteel. All right, enough from me. Back to

505
00:44:47,342 --> 00:44:53,622
the show. I mean, if you look at the CME group and the market, like the prediction market, it says

506
00:44:53,622 --> 00:45:00,802
like an 85% chance as of yesterday when I was checking all of this. So at least 25 basis points,

507
00:45:00,802 --> 00:45:08,802
but like a couple of weeks ago, do you think he should? No, I don't. I don't think like, I mean,

508
00:45:08,802 --> 00:45:13,722
if you've seen, if you've seen the Dixie, you see like real estate in the United States,

509
00:45:13,722 --> 00:45:20,581
like all of these underlying factors, they're looking very poor. I mean, we've never had like

510
00:45:20,581 --> 00:45:24,902
The real estate market right now in the United States is worse than it was in 2008.

511
00:45:25,041 --> 00:45:26,142
Nobody's buying homes.

512
00:45:26,842 --> 00:45:32,722
Now, will mortgage rates lowering cause all these people that have been allegedly sitting

513
00:45:32,722 --> 00:45:36,561
on the sidelines to all magically buy houses right away?

514
00:45:36,682 --> 00:45:37,682
I don't think so.

515
00:45:38,222 --> 00:45:40,182
The housing market moves very slow.

516
00:45:40,182 --> 00:45:43,962
I think the jobs market isn't very good right now.

517
00:45:44,122 --> 00:45:48,682
I mean, I hear of college kids graduating and student loan delinquencies, credit card

518
00:45:48,682 --> 00:45:55,142
delinquencies, all of these things are going up. And at the end of the day, I still think we have

519
00:45:55,142 --> 00:46:01,822
inflation running pretty high. So everybody is just assuming we cut interest rates and everything's

520
00:46:01,822 --> 00:46:06,162
going to be all fine and dandy. And I think it's just going to be the opposite. I think once we cut

521
00:46:06,162 --> 00:46:12,222
interest rates, because we've already had that seemingly priced in, at least one or two cuts,

522
00:46:12,581 --> 00:46:18,081
the market might crash. And everybody thinks that, oh, once Powell cuts interest rates,

523
00:46:18,081 --> 00:46:22,162
we're going to go off to the moon and everything. Maybe Bitcoin will do well. Maybe I'm wrong about

524
00:46:22,162 --> 00:46:27,561
that. And everything else will crash. But I think that we're in kind of an asset bubble right now.

525
00:46:27,581 --> 00:46:34,762
And that's what really worries me is we're seeing just assets way overinflated. And Trump knows that

526
00:46:34,762 --> 00:46:40,722
the way that people look at the market is how the S&P 500 for like the old boomers is doing,

527
00:46:40,722 --> 00:46:46,282
and for the younger generation, how Bitcoin's doing. So everybody's assuming lowering interest

528
00:46:46,282 --> 00:46:50,602
race is going to make both of those go up. And I don't necessarily think that's the case.

529
00:46:51,682 --> 00:46:58,222
Yeah, it's going to, I mean, I don't even think that, you know, I think that a two and a half

530
00:46:58,222 --> 00:47:06,382
percent cut may inspire, you know, activity in the real estate market and provide some relief.

531
00:47:06,382 --> 00:47:14,342
I do not think, you know, 25 basis points is going to do any of that. I think that

532
00:47:14,342 --> 00:47:18,021
we saw the PPI numbers come out.

533
00:47:18,222 --> 00:47:22,862
Like, there doesn't seem to be any rational reason yet

534
00:47:22,862 --> 00:47:26,142
to do any kind of, begin any kind of cutting cycle.

535
00:47:26,561 --> 00:47:29,322
If anything, it's 25 basis points.

536
00:47:29,622 --> 00:47:31,561
Because even when you look at the two-year,

537
00:47:31,782 --> 00:47:37,182
it's not dropped enough, right, to justify any major cuts.

538
00:47:37,182 --> 00:47:40,262
Now, it could even want to be preemptive, maybe.

539
00:47:40,642 --> 00:47:43,102
But, you know, anything more than 25 basis points,

540
00:47:43,102 --> 00:47:46,102
I think would be very, very preemptive cuts.

541
00:47:46,922 --> 00:47:50,102
And that's when you could start seeing the market crash

542
00:47:50,102 --> 00:47:51,742
if there's like massive cuts.

543
00:47:51,882 --> 00:47:55,802
Like if what President Trump wants happens

544
00:47:55,802 --> 00:47:58,402
where you start getting 1% interest rates,

545
00:47:58,521 --> 00:47:59,922
yeah, I think you're gonna see the market crash.

546
00:48:01,282 --> 00:48:03,602
And then would that, I mean, you know,

547
00:48:03,722 --> 00:48:06,282
we're talking about some data that we're seeing,

548
00:48:06,362 --> 00:48:09,702
we haven't seen since either COVID or maybe even 2008

549
00:48:09,702 --> 00:48:12,622
when you kind of like take a look underneath the hood.

550
00:48:12,622 --> 00:48:23,762
I mean, do you think that we're in that bad of an economic state where it's pretty much like a foregone conclusion that either we're going to have to massively print or we're going to go into a recession?

551
00:48:24,642 --> 00:48:27,382
I don't think the U.S. is in a bad economic state.

552
00:48:27,922 --> 00:48:31,021
I don't get what everyone's talking about.

553
00:48:31,581 --> 00:48:35,602
I think the U.S. is looking pretty strong right now.

554
00:48:35,762 --> 00:48:40,802
If anything, there's probably a risk of further inflation than there is anything else.

555
00:48:40,802 --> 00:48:43,802
So I don't think the U.S. is in a bad enough state.

556
00:48:43,922 --> 00:48:46,342
The Federal Reserve is really a backstop, right?

557
00:48:46,702 --> 00:48:57,942
And my reason for not wanting him to cut rates is because it actually forces the president and the Treasury to start figuring out how to expand real liquidity rather than just lowering interest rates.

558
00:48:58,282 --> 00:49:00,001
That's really the lever for the Fed.

559
00:49:00,081 --> 00:49:01,422
It's lowering interest rates, right?

560
00:49:01,561 --> 00:49:05,922
The Treasury has many more creative levers to increase liquidity, which is what I want to see.

561
00:49:05,982 --> 00:49:07,262
I want to see increased liquidity.

562
00:49:07,822 --> 00:49:09,602
Interest rates are really irrelevant to me.

563
00:49:10,802 --> 00:49:14,962
from an asset perspective, especially because people can't borrow money to buy Bitcoin.

564
00:49:15,442 --> 00:49:19,622
Or rather, the market for borrowing money to buy Bitcoin because you have lower interest rates

565
00:49:19,622 --> 00:49:26,942
is ridiculous. Because if Bitcoin is kegering at 35%, 40% a year, borrowing at 4.5%, 5% is not

566
00:49:26,942 --> 00:49:32,982
really a problem. So if that market was big enough, it would be happening now. So I don't see that.

567
00:49:33,102 --> 00:49:38,322
I don't see the real estate market benefiting from a 25 basis point cut because these people

568
00:49:38,322 --> 00:49:43,001
of refinance at half a percent. So, you know, unless you get back down there, what incentive

569
00:49:43,001 --> 00:49:49,561
do you have to move houses? It doesn't make any sense. So I don't, yeah, I mean, I would prefer

570
00:49:49,561 --> 00:49:55,482
if he doesn't cut rates for a while. Yeah. And I mean, you know, well, I guess we'll see on that,

571
00:49:55,581 --> 00:50:00,602
but I mean, if anything, it's, it seems like we're going to just cut like two times, essentially,

572
00:50:00,602 --> 00:50:07,682
maybe three times before Powell is, you know, out of the, the Fed, the, the Fed altogether back in

573
00:50:07,682 --> 00:50:12,322
may and then trump's going to put somebody in office that's just going to want these zero percent

574
00:50:12,322 --> 00:50:17,122
interest rates and so that's where i think things are going to get a little bit hairy

575
00:50:17,122 --> 00:50:23,442
to say the least i mean he just fired a fed governor here i think last night um so i mean i

576
00:50:23,442 --> 00:50:28,561
i don't know i mean it seems like him putting the pressure on him is is going to eventually

577
00:50:28,561 --> 00:50:33,521
just cause them to cave and you know they're going to want to keep their position so eventually

578
00:50:33,521 --> 00:50:36,142
Which, by the way, sends a terrible message.

579
00:50:36,142 --> 00:50:41,501
I was thinking about it when President Trump said that he wants a 1% interest rate.

580
00:50:41,581 --> 00:50:45,001
He thinks that 1% interest rates are good, and he wants a 1% interest rate.

581
00:50:46,001 --> 00:50:56,222
Do you really think that a president having the button on interest rates is a good thing?

582
00:50:57,622 --> 00:51:02,302
And even though I'm not an American, but I'm pro-Trump,

583
00:51:02,302 --> 00:51:16,362
and the administration and its goals Like I don like that right Because at the end of the day if he can do it so can President Kamala Harris or President AOC in the future

584
00:51:16,702 --> 00:51:18,902
Or, you know, like it could be whoever.

585
00:51:19,102 --> 00:51:20,962
I don't like that.

586
00:51:21,162 --> 00:51:24,862
For the first time in a long time, when he said that,

587
00:51:24,922 --> 00:51:29,402
it made me go, thank God for the Federal Reserve, right?

588
00:51:29,462 --> 00:51:32,262
Thank God that it's set up in the way that it's set up

589
00:51:32,262 --> 00:51:37,142
where the Fed chair is not beholden to the president of the moment.

590
00:51:40,342 --> 00:51:46,582
So is this, I guess, the risk risk we run if the Fed is ended where we have the president

591
00:51:46,582 --> 00:51:53,302
essentially having like, you know, all of this power and, you know, we we get that where,

592
00:51:53,302 --> 00:51:58,422
you know, they're in these four year terms, so they want to stay in power. So they'll just,

593
00:51:58,422 --> 00:52:03,462
you know lower interest rates inflate the thing away and then hey you know what we'll be all fine

594
00:52:03,462 --> 00:52:08,342
and dandy for like a year or two and then you know they got to clean it up again yeah i mean look

595
00:52:09,063 --> 00:52:12,982
yeah at the end of the day like i don't think the us is going to go through that because you

596
00:52:12,982 --> 00:52:20,023
you know the us is basically the best of of a of a pile basically when it comes to the us dollar

597
00:52:20,662 --> 00:52:27,142
um so i don't think that i don't think it goes unchecked right but at the same time yeah like

598
00:52:27,142 --> 00:52:36,642
Like, I do not want to see a president or a prime minister, for example, in my country, have the ability to lower interest rates at will.

599
00:52:37,722 --> 00:52:42,622
Plus, they've got many ways to increase liquidity, you know, through the Treasury.

600
00:52:42,922 --> 00:52:46,442
Like, Besant is not a moron.

601
00:52:46,442 --> 00:52:51,882
Like, he is a shrewd killer when it comes to currency management.

602
00:52:51,882 --> 00:52:59,563
So he'll know and they will create ways to generate liquidity because they've got midterms to win as well, right?

603
00:52:59,642 --> 00:53:01,242
So you've got midterms coming up next year.

604
00:53:01,402 --> 00:53:02,942
Like they got those to win as well.

605
00:53:03,122 --> 00:53:06,023
So yeah, either way, liquidity is going up.

606
00:53:06,142 --> 00:53:11,182
Whether it happens because of interest rates or not is not really relevant.

607
00:53:12,402 --> 00:53:13,523
Yeah, and then everybody knows.

608
00:53:13,682 --> 00:53:20,082
Everybody loves to show that liquidity, the global M2 money supply, all that correlated to the Bitcoin price.

609
00:53:20,082 --> 00:53:23,382
So, I mean, I guess right now, right now that ain't working.

610
00:53:24,302 --> 00:53:24,543
Yeah.

611
00:53:25,422 --> 00:53:29,102
But I mean, they always say there's like 110 day lag or something like that.

612
00:53:29,162 --> 00:53:30,442
I think that's the magic number.

613
00:53:30,523 --> 00:53:31,162
I don't know why.

614
00:53:31,502 --> 00:53:34,582
There's always some bullshit cope that these people have, right?

615
00:53:34,662 --> 00:53:39,782
They put a chart up and then they've always got some kind of cope as to, you know, what's not happened.

616
00:53:40,222 --> 00:53:48,502
Like at the end of the day, you know, yeah, there is some kind of correlation to asset prices and Global M2.

617
00:53:48,502 --> 00:53:50,662
but I don't think people should be putting a chart.

618
00:53:50,782 --> 00:53:52,622
Like anyone just can go on TradingView,

619
00:53:53,002 --> 00:53:55,002
bring up the M2 chart, overlay it,

620
00:53:55,043 --> 00:53:57,262
and fit it to whatever asset they're looking at.

621
00:53:57,642 --> 00:53:59,442
And it will look like it's correlated.

622
00:54:00,922 --> 00:54:02,742
Well, I mean, you already confirmed

623
00:54:02,742 --> 00:54:04,722
that the power opinion is true here.

624
00:54:04,882 --> 00:54:07,882
So, I mean, that's all we got to use to predict.

625
00:54:07,882 --> 00:54:08,942
Use the power opinion.

626
00:54:09,782 --> 00:54:11,262
Just cook some fucking spaghetti.

627
00:54:11,662 --> 00:54:14,102
Don't snap it this time because we're friends now.

628
00:54:14,342 --> 00:54:16,242
And look at the power opinion

629
00:54:16,242 --> 00:54:17,482
and you're going to be all golden.

630
00:54:18,502 --> 00:54:22,142
Oh my goodness. I can't believe you guys came together and had the kumbaya.

631
00:54:22,482 --> 00:54:24,582
And now you guys are sitting at the campfire together.

632
00:54:25,122 --> 00:54:26,942
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Relax. Relax.

633
00:54:27,382 --> 00:54:32,162
So far, we've got to potentially sharing a bottle of wine.

634
00:54:32,162 --> 00:54:35,262
Like, that's where we've got to. We haven't got to the kumbaya moment yet.

635
00:54:35,982 --> 00:54:37,602
Okay. Well, I'll be looking for that.

636
00:54:37,682 --> 00:54:40,922
We got to have cameras on there because, I mean, my goodness.

637
00:54:41,082 --> 00:54:43,402
After we saw the snap into the spaghetti,

638
00:54:43,402 --> 00:54:48,922
I think we got to see that wine getting drunk by the two of you guys.

639
00:54:49,262 --> 00:54:59,402
But, you know, you brought up Scott Bessent, and he recently came out and had a little bit of a hiccup in the news where he said that the U.S. isn't buying any more Bitcoin.

640
00:55:00,563 --> 00:55:06,842
You know, obviously, they've backtracked a little bit of that, but I'm curious kind of what you think of this Bitcoin strategic reserve.

641
00:55:06,842 --> 00:55:13,523
you know it seems like a lot of the bitcoiners are very i guess upset that they haven't been

642
00:55:13,523 --> 00:55:19,502
moving quickly uh i'm kind of of the opinion that we might not see it this presidential term and we

643
00:55:19,502 --> 00:55:23,902
might have to wait another three and a half four years before we actually see the u.s buying any

644
00:55:23,902 --> 00:55:29,462
any bitcoin but i'm curious to hear kind of what you think of it and you know do you think that

645
00:55:29,462 --> 00:55:35,762
this is a possibility that we even get it within you know donald trump's presidency here i i'm

646
00:55:35,762 --> 00:55:47,122
I'm negatively surprised at the lack of support that Cynthia Lummis is getting for her bill.

647
00:55:48,322 --> 00:55:55,482
That surprised me a lot, especially with the whole of government kind of approach to Bitcoin and crypto.

648
00:55:56,002 --> 00:55:59,442
But he only took office January 21st.

649
00:55:59,622 --> 00:56:01,282
It's now August 26th.

650
00:56:01,282 --> 00:56:02,902
So we've got to give it time.

651
00:56:02,902 --> 00:56:10,582
I'm bullish on this administration, but I'm not that bullish in the short term.

652
00:56:11,422 --> 00:56:17,382
I'm also bullish because of conversations I've had with like Bitcoin Policy Institute guys and whatever else.

653
00:56:17,563 --> 00:56:23,242
And they're all doing a good job. They're all working really hard to get the whole machine moving.

654
00:56:23,362 --> 00:56:32,242
And I understand why people are disappointed, because we think that everyone's going to go through the Bitcoin learning curve at the same pace that we did it on YouTube.

655
00:56:32,242 --> 00:56:38,162
Right. And that's just not the case. You're dealing with the entire U.S. government here and it's going to take time to get something like that moving.

656
00:56:38,602 --> 00:56:46,422
And also, it's kind of hard to win votes when you say we're going to print money to buy Bitcoin and not print money to give it to you.

657
00:56:46,422 --> 00:56:51,402
Right. Like that's a that's also a thing as well, which is why they came out very quickly.

658
00:56:51,402 --> 00:56:58,222
uh all i do know is that the moment besant said that there were phone calls going on um in the

659
00:56:58,222 --> 00:57:03,582
background which then led to like within three or four hours a complete reversal of that on twitter

660
00:57:03,582 --> 00:57:11,002
so that was pretty good that showed how how strong you know of a of a lobbying department bitcoin now

661
00:57:11,002 --> 00:57:21,222
has um and yeah look i i think that you know he misspoke yeah yeah and i mean like you said i

662
00:57:21,222 --> 00:57:25,962
think we're only like what eight eight months into his presidency or so right now and i think

663
00:57:25,962 --> 00:57:31,622
uh you know bitcoiners i don't know i i mean i almost have this general feeling that everybody

664
00:57:31,622 --> 00:57:37,242
should be concerned the number one concern should be bitcoin but obviously there's a whole lot of

665
00:57:37,242 --> 00:57:42,822
you know other issues going on in the united states to say the very least outside of just

666
00:57:42,822 --> 00:57:47,782
you know making a bitcoin strategic reserve and that's kind of why i'm under the opinion that i

667
00:57:47,782 --> 00:57:54,002
don't know if we'll we'll see a strategic reserve you know actually buying occur because i mean

668
00:57:54,002 --> 00:57:58,543
they've said you know they're going to revalue the gold or that was an idea that was floated around

669
00:57:58,543 --> 00:58:05,063
but that seems like very unlikely uh and they keep stretching stressing this budget neutral way to buy

670
00:58:05,063 --> 00:58:11,582
bitcoin now uh i'm kind of curious do you think that that uh you know do you see that actually

671
00:58:11,582 --> 00:58:17,962
happening or foresee like some sort of way figuring out some sort of way to not print money,

672
00:58:17,962 --> 00:58:22,662
but add some liquidity, I guess, to the governmental balance sheet in a way to whether

673
00:58:22,662 --> 00:58:27,902
it's through now, now through Doge, that seems to be not existent. They're going to find some other

674
00:58:27,902 --> 00:58:33,043
way to, to basically do the budget neutral purchase. Or do you think they might just bend

675
00:58:33,043 --> 00:58:36,282
the knee eventually and just be like, all right, you know what, we're going to use the taxpayer

676
00:58:36,282 --> 00:58:40,982
dollars to buy some Bitcoin. I think it's going to be a combination of everything. I think it will

677
00:58:40,982 --> 00:58:46,482
start off as budget neutral. And then once it starts making money, you know, if you buy,

678
00:58:46,602 --> 00:58:51,102
let's say you buy $10 billion worth and suddenly it's worth $30 billion. Now you've got an incentive

679
00:58:51,102 --> 00:58:55,402
to say, all right, let's go actually print some money to put this, to put it in there. So like I

680
00:58:55,402 --> 00:59:02,082
said, I'm bullish on the total administration time. I'm not bullish short term on the strategic

681
00:59:02,082 --> 00:59:06,582
reserve. And by the way, you know, it's quite funny to me when people that haven't got to one

682
00:59:06,582 --> 00:59:10,842
Bitcoin yet are like disappointed in the fact that there's no strategic reserve. It's like,

683
00:59:10,842 --> 00:59:13,462
you do realize that as soon as there is a strategic reserve,

684
00:59:13,842 --> 00:59:17,063
your chance of getting to one Bitcoin goes further away from you.

685
00:59:17,142 --> 00:59:20,043
Like you should be counting your blessings every single day

686
00:59:20,043 --> 00:59:21,442
that there is no strategic reserve

687
00:59:21,442 --> 00:59:24,523
because you still have time to get to that one Bitcoin.

688
00:59:25,902 --> 00:59:29,682
Yeah, it's interesting because everybody in the Bitcoin space

689
00:59:29,682 --> 00:59:32,162
kind of stresses the long time horizon.

690
00:59:32,162 --> 00:59:34,702
But when Bitcoin goes down by like three or 4%,

691
00:59:34,702 --> 00:59:38,182
it seems like everybody's ready to jump off a cliff and it's all over.

692
00:59:38,482 --> 00:59:39,462
They're fucking selling.

693
00:59:39,462 --> 00:59:43,242
Right now I'm seeing that there's people like selling Bitcoins by Ethereum.

694
00:59:44,802 --> 00:59:45,202
Yeah.

695
00:59:45,362 --> 00:59:46,322
What's up with that?

696
00:59:46,422 --> 00:59:47,043
What's up with that?

697
00:59:47,222 --> 00:59:52,302
Do you think that these like what Tom Lee is doing, the, you know, Ethereum treasury

698
00:59:52,302 --> 00:59:53,722
companies and those kind of stuff?

699
00:59:53,822 --> 00:59:57,822
Because I've actually got asked about that a couple of times in my gym here recently.

700
00:59:57,822 --> 00:59:59,402
Like, oh, what do you think of this?

701
00:59:59,462 --> 01:00:03,523
What do you think of, you know, XRP and all these other, you know, dog shit coins.

702
01:00:03,523 --> 01:00:06,442
But people keep coming and asking me about them.

703
01:00:06,442 --> 01:00:10,302
oh, what do you think of, you know, does this add more validity to Ethereum?

704
01:00:10,482 --> 01:00:11,422
Should I buy this?

705
01:00:12,082 --> 01:00:15,182
And I'm always, you know, obviously just Bitcoin only.

706
01:00:15,322 --> 01:00:18,842
And I'm like, all right, if you want to dabble into MSTR or whatever, like that's fine.

707
01:00:18,842 --> 01:00:24,122
But, you know, avoid the Ethereum treasury companies at all costs and all these other things.

708
01:00:24,122 --> 01:00:29,142
But it seems like those are getting more notice to the altcoins,

709
01:00:29,302 --> 01:00:33,682
which I don't know if that's like a positive for Bitcoin or a negative at the end of the day.

710
01:00:33,682 --> 01:00:39,782
I mean look here's what I will tell you when it comes to when it comes to Wall Street they like

711
01:00:39,782 --> 01:00:45,262
portfolios right because they make money through making things confusing so if you don't know what

712
01:00:45,262 --> 01:00:50,563
to allocate to where that's when they come in and they can make a fee off of that so I guarantee you

713
01:00:50,563 --> 01:00:56,202
that there is going to be a portfolio of quote-unquote cryptos right like because that's how

714
01:00:56,202 --> 01:01:03,102
they make their money um the as far as like Tom Lee goes I think he's a genius I think he's seen

715
01:01:03,102 --> 01:01:07,302
this opportunity and he's seen what's happening to strategy and he's gone, okay, well, if there's

716
01:01:07,302 --> 01:01:13,882
going to be a portfolio based approach to crypto, well, then someone needs to create the number one

717
01:01:13,882 --> 01:01:17,882
Ethereum treasury company. And he's gone and done that. And I think he's going to get extremely

718
01:01:17,882 --> 01:01:23,262
wealthy off of the back of that. And I'm, you know, I don't know, but I'm pretty sure he's

719
01:01:23,262 --> 01:01:28,642
going to take all of that wealth and buy Bitcoin with it. Yeah. So eventually all roads will lead

720
01:01:28,642 --> 01:01:34,662
to Bitcoin and they'll bend the knee, you think? And, you know, that's just kind of, it's just the

721
01:01:34,662 --> 01:01:39,282
short term little blip where all these guys are going to come in and, you know, go into all of

722
01:01:39,282 --> 01:01:46,442
these different cryptos as Wall Street is going through that learning curve. Yeah, ultimately,

723
01:01:47,043 --> 01:01:53,543
Wall Street doesn't mind losing money, right? Because losing money allows them to basically

724
01:01:53,543 --> 01:01:59,622
like earn a fee and so they are going to make things confusing it's going to be bitcoin plus

725
01:01:59,622 --> 01:02:05,543
plus plus plus plus whatever um and even if it's a shit idea they'll hold it up because it allows

726
01:02:05,543 --> 01:02:12,422
them to make fees uh so that's that's happening the bitcoin a wet dream of you know all assets

727
01:02:12,422 --> 01:02:19,222
basically collapse into bitcoin next year is not going to happen yeah so do you think that wall

728
01:02:19,222 --> 01:02:24,982
street is is here already uh even though i mean because obviously we got the treasury companies

729
01:02:24,982 --> 01:02:33,063
but i guess the narrative is that the etfs like 70 to 80 percent of the buying is retail allegedly

730
01:02:33,063 --> 01:02:38,502
whether it's through you know the 401ks or all these other aspects now that you know you're

731
01:02:38,502 --> 01:02:45,142
allowed to to buy the bitcoin through um and that these family offices these people who have you know

732
01:02:45,142 --> 01:02:52,702
funds are not necessarily allowed to buy these ETFs or, you know, put it in the Bitcoin basket

733
01:02:52,702 --> 01:02:58,822
of goods, so to speak, just yet. Do you see that as where we are right now?

734
01:03:00,962 --> 01:03:13,202
I think that, by the way, I think you might be outdated on the ETF information. I think it's

735
01:03:13,202 --> 01:03:23,482
actually now flipped to more institutional than retail. But I think that it's so tough to say.

736
01:03:23,722 --> 01:03:27,742
Yes, I do think Wall Street is here. I think they're buying. I think they're accumulating,

737
01:03:28,102 --> 01:03:32,822
but they're not buying in the way that retail buys. So you're not going to be able to see it.

738
01:03:32,822 --> 01:03:38,962
It's going to be slow, grinding accumulation. And they're going to try and take as much Bitcoin as

739
01:03:38,962 --> 01:03:43,402
they can, as I said, would happen. And people are just giving it up, which is what's even more

740
01:03:43,402 --> 01:03:48,342
crazy. Like people are just literally just giving up their Bitcoin. Just think about that for a

741
01:03:48,342 --> 01:03:54,382
second. Like these guys that dumped 80,000 coins, I don't know how many they have, right? But they

742
01:03:54,382 --> 01:03:59,802
dumped 80,000 coins. Like how many Bitcoin do you think you need to have in order to feel confident

743
01:03:59,802 --> 01:04:06,162
in 2025 to dump 80,000? This bull run, I'm looking for ways to stack Bitcoin in my sleep

744
01:04:06,162 --> 01:04:08,382
and mining has always caught my eye.

745
01:04:08,802 --> 01:04:11,502
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746
01:04:11,502 --> 01:04:13,702
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747
01:04:14,043 --> 01:04:16,482
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748
01:04:16,902 --> 01:04:19,043
so I've got a machine up and running with them

749
01:04:19,043 --> 01:04:20,182
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750
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751
01:04:22,342 --> 01:04:24,502
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752
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753
01:04:28,962 --> 01:04:30,982
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754
01:04:30,982 --> 01:04:32,602
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755
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756
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757
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758
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759
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760
01:04:45,342 --> 01:04:47,002
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761
01:04:47,002 --> 01:04:49,782
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762
01:04:49,782 --> 01:04:52,722
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763
01:04:53,002 --> 01:04:54,262
All right, enough from me.

764
01:04:54,382 --> 01:04:55,543
Let's get back to the show.

765
01:04:56,382 --> 01:04:58,382
Yeah, I mean, you got to have at least

766
01:04:58,382 --> 01:05:00,482
like a couple hundred thousand at this point, right?

767
01:05:00,582 --> 01:05:01,162
I mean, you got to keep-

768
01:05:01,162 --> 01:05:02,523
Even that sounds ridiculous.

769
01:05:03,442 --> 01:05:03,802
Yeah.

770
01:05:04,302 --> 01:05:05,602
So, yeah, I don't know.

771
01:05:06,122 --> 01:05:08,462
But this is it will stop at some point.

772
01:05:08,543 --> 01:05:08,702
Right.

773
01:05:08,782 --> 01:05:11,762
There will there will be an exhaustion of selling.

774
01:05:11,762 --> 01:05:13,262
It has last.

775
01:05:13,342 --> 01:05:14,082
I want to be very clear.

776
01:05:14,262 --> 01:05:18,742
It has lasted and been at a size that I'm very surprised by.

777
01:05:18,862 --> 01:05:20,622
I thought it would have been over a lot sooner.

778
01:05:22,102 --> 01:05:22,322
Yeah.

779
01:05:22,482 --> 01:05:27,942
And, you know, and it's unique now, too, because of the products that we're seeing come online.

780
01:05:28,102 --> 01:05:35,523
I mean, like Strike and all of these players are now offering, you know, Bitcoin backed loans where you don't need to sell.

781
01:05:35,523 --> 01:05:40,202
So I'm kind of surprised that we are seeing the amount of selling going on right now.

782
01:05:40,362 --> 01:05:43,622
Because most people are not used to financial engineering, right?

783
01:05:43,662 --> 01:05:47,982
Like they don't understand how to manage a loan backed by Bitcoin.

784
01:05:48,242 --> 01:05:55,742
And most of these people that are taking these loans, like, or that will take these loans, like retail, will end up screwing up their loan management.

785
01:05:55,742 --> 01:05:58,563
And it will just be like they ended up selling their Bitcoin anyway.

786
01:05:58,563 --> 01:06:04,882
yeah so i mean but but with that volatility and the amount of loans that we're seeing take

787
01:06:04,882 --> 01:06:11,342
i mean it's still early right so i mean i don't know is that information public of how much how

788
01:06:11,342 --> 01:06:16,862
much how many loans they're filling no i mean i haven't i haven't really seen it because all the

789
01:06:16,862 --> 01:06:22,622
players that are doing it are are all private i believe i mean i don't know if we have like too

790
01:06:22,622 --> 01:06:27,442
much public information about all that just yet yeah so i don't know what if there's no demand

791
01:06:27,442 --> 01:06:33,762
yeah i mean i i would feel like there has to be some some demand that's why we've seen strike do

792
01:06:33,762 --> 01:06:40,902
it but again you're talking about almost a two trillion dollar asset like what is some demand

793
01:06:40,902 --> 01:06:47,082
if it's two billion dollars it doesn't do anything yeah and it also depends on what they're doing

794
01:06:47,082 --> 01:06:52,182
with that bitcoin right like oh what they're doing with that loan because if they're just

795
01:06:52,182 --> 01:06:55,662
taking that loan and going out and buying houses with it you're not going to see that

796
01:06:55,662 --> 01:07:02,582
impacted on Bitcoin. But yeah, no, I've definitely been surprised at how much Bitcoin has been sold

797
01:07:02,582 --> 01:07:08,523
for sure. Yeah. And is it? Yeah. Cause I mean, like, especially where, where we are, I guess,

798
01:07:08,543 --> 01:07:13,063
like in this cycle. So, I mean, I, I definitely think we have like a long way to go. I'm curious

799
01:07:13,063 --> 01:07:18,362
where, where you kind of see it going at this point. Do you think that we're going to be,

800
01:07:18,362 --> 01:07:23,582
I guess, like grinding our way up through 26, it's going to be a little bit of a longer drawn

801
01:07:23,582 --> 01:07:29,543
out cycle? Or do you think, you know, we're still going to get kind of the traditional four year

802
01:07:29,543 --> 01:07:36,502
period that we've been seeing? Well, the two circumstances are drastically different,

803
01:07:36,962 --> 01:07:41,742
right? On the one side, you've got this bed of buying orders that are in the markets that are

804
01:07:41,742 --> 01:07:46,222
going to be grinding into the markets, especially as liquidity conditions improve, etc, etc.

805
01:07:46,402 --> 01:07:52,282
And that could go all the way into some into 2026. And then retail could get super excited,

806
01:07:52,282 --> 01:07:58,282
cause a blow off top. Secondly, you know, if you're trying to operate through traditional four year cycles,

807
01:07:58,282 --> 01:08:04,282
which is basically the peak comes around 18 months after the halving, well, that's October, right?

808
01:08:04,282 --> 01:08:13,242
That's October this time. So, and in order, remember, in order to have a long and sustained bear market, you need a drastic,

809
01:08:13,923 --> 01:08:19,043
uh blow off top because markets are very symmetrical you want to remember that right

810
01:08:19,043 --> 01:08:26,083
markets are very symmetrical so if you do not get a blow off top you are not going to get a deep bear

811
01:08:26,083 --> 01:08:32,483
market and so that's the way i like to think about it and i don't know i i genuinely am confused at

812
01:08:32,483 --> 01:08:38,243
what i'm seeing um you know people say okay so what if the u.s announces that you know they're

813
01:08:38,243 --> 01:08:44,323
not doing a strategic reserve and that shocks the market it's like well we've just seen 80 000 coins

814
01:08:44,323 --> 01:08:51,363
get dumped on in a matter of days and it dropped the price by three percent so you know 10 times

815
01:08:51,363 --> 01:08:58,643
that 30 that's like a standard it's like a standard bear market so yeah i mean that's not even a bear

816
01:08:58,643 --> 01:09:04,243
market rather that's a standard like correction in a bull market yeah like i don't even really think

817
01:09:04,243 --> 01:09:09,203
that just because of you know what we're lining out and i mean the buying pressure too like i mean

818
01:09:09,203 --> 01:09:14,883
if these uh you know if the us doesn't announce the strategic reserve if they say you know what

819
01:09:14,883 --> 01:09:18,803
we're just going to keep the confiscated coins we're not going to buy for another three and a

820
01:09:18,803 --> 01:09:23,363
half four years or whatever maybe not till the next presidential term i mean there's so much

821
01:09:23,363 --> 01:09:28,083
buying pressure right now from at least like the treasury companies like sailor will will scoop up

822
01:09:28,083 --> 01:09:35,143
those coins like i don't foresee that ever really you know causing that big of a correction i mean

823
01:09:35,143 --> 01:09:41,963
maybe 30 like you said but i think the days of the 50 plus percent corrections are are maybe done

824
01:09:41,963 --> 01:09:46,703
unless like you said we see the the massive blow off the top and then that's when you know we get

825
01:09:46,703 --> 01:09:51,403
some hairiness in here but as it stands right now i kind of find it hard to believe that we're going

826
01:09:51,403 --> 01:09:58,383
to see the massive drawdown underneath that 100k mark and you know we're going to be back in the

827
01:09:58,383 --> 01:10:05,223
60s or something like that anytime soon yeah i don't i can't see it my my natural gut instinct

828
01:10:05,223 --> 01:10:12,463
is that this market has changed i would much prefer it if we went up to like let's say 400

829
01:10:12,463 --> 01:10:18,903
000 by october from here and then dumped back to exactly where we're at i would much prefer that

830
01:10:18,903 --> 01:10:22,043
because with my background and experience,

831
01:10:22,043 --> 01:10:23,383
I know how to monetize volatility.

832
01:10:24,243 --> 01:10:26,303
So that's really powerful for me.

833
01:10:26,803 --> 01:10:29,143
But I have a feeling that that's not going to happen.

834
01:10:30,423 --> 01:10:32,423
Yeah, everybody's saying the slow grind up.

835
01:10:32,563 --> 01:10:35,343
And I feel like when we hear that though,

836
01:10:35,523 --> 01:10:36,603
it's always the opposite.

837
01:10:36,763 --> 01:10:37,423
Once we get group-

838
01:10:37,423 --> 01:10:38,723
Well, I was just going to say that.

839
01:10:38,843 --> 01:10:38,983
Yeah.

840
01:10:39,323 --> 01:10:41,863
The fact that everyone's now saying that

841
01:10:41,863 --> 01:10:43,663
tells me that there's a potential

842
01:10:43,663 --> 01:10:46,423
that we go up to $200,000 to $400,000

843
01:10:46,423 --> 01:10:47,723
and then dump.

844
01:10:47,723 --> 01:10:53,563
yeah and i mean hey everybody knows me i'm the moon boy over here dude i always think we're going

845
01:10:53,563 --> 01:10:58,043
we're going and taking off so i wouldn't be surprised if we start to see that here in the

846
01:10:58,043 --> 01:11:02,703
in the near future but british you're always a pleasure to have on i think this is like the third

847
01:11:02,703 --> 01:11:07,563
or fourth time i've had you on in like a year at this point so recurring numbers are the numbers

848
01:11:07,563 --> 01:11:14,443
always good or no of course people love it when we get together dude they absolutely love it so

849
01:11:14,443 --> 01:11:21,383
So why don't you tell people who haven't seen you where they can find you and what else you got going on?

850
01:11:22,503 --> 01:11:32,627
Yeah I mean you know go to YouTube type in British HODL and look for this face or on X as well British HODL And those are my only two platforms

851
01:11:32,827 --> 01:11:33,847
So YouTube and X.

852
01:11:34,927 --> 01:11:35,987
What have I got going on?

853
01:11:36,067 --> 01:11:39,067
I'm basically waiting to see what happens with this market right now.

854
01:11:39,067 --> 01:11:40,087
That's basically it.

855
01:11:40,127 --> 01:11:46,987
I've been actually planning out like, OK, you know, if this is a long drawn out grind up, then what am I going to do?

856
01:11:46,987 --> 01:11:52,307
and if this is a blow-off top and then a massive correction into next year,

857
01:11:52,367 --> 01:11:53,087
what am I going to do?

858
01:11:53,187 --> 01:11:54,407
So that's what I've been thinking about.

859
01:11:54,587 --> 01:11:57,007
I like to think about things before they actually happen.

860
01:11:57,387 --> 01:11:59,347
So I thought about the whole treasury company thing.

861
01:11:59,467 --> 01:12:00,087
I was pitched.

862
01:12:00,207 --> 01:12:04,247
Look, one of the advantages of having a YouTube channel and an X account

863
01:12:04,247 --> 01:12:08,047
or whatever is that you get some investment opportunities sometimes.

864
01:12:08,047 --> 01:12:13,447
So I got pitched like 18 treasury companies in the pre-seed rounds and whatever,

865
01:12:13,647 --> 01:12:15,747
and I basically chose Nakamoto.

866
01:12:15,747 --> 01:12:17,647
So that was the only one that I did.

867
01:12:17,967 --> 01:12:23,767
And as I was going through that process, I was like, OK, well, you know, what are the

868
01:12:23,767 --> 01:12:30,787
what are the potentials of this, you know, of this industry of Bitcoin treasury companies?

869
01:12:30,947 --> 01:12:34,547
And I came out with a plan and I executed that plan based on what I thought was going

870
01:12:34,547 --> 01:12:34,807
to happen.

871
01:12:34,807 --> 01:12:40,567
So I like to do things and rather I like to think through things before the market forces

872
01:12:40,567 --> 01:12:41,767
me to think about them.

873
01:12:42,507 --> 01:12:52,667
And that's what I feel is going on right now with a lot of people where the market has like forced them to think about what's going on with their treasury company portfolios and their positions.

874
01:12:52,667 --> 01:12:56,407
And that's when you make the worst decisions. So think about it now.

875
01:12:56,407 --> 01:13:04,487
Like everyone should be focusing on like, OK, so if this is a blow off top and a bear market, then what am I going to do?

876
01:13:04,487 --> 01:13:09,207
if this is a slow grind up for the next eight years,

877
01:13:09,267 --> 01:13:12,507
like what happened with gold after the ETF came out in 2004?

878
01:13:12,847 --> 01:13:13,947
What am I going to do?

879
01:13:14,287 --> 01:13:16,327
And start thinking about these things, right?

880
01:13:16,327 --> 01:13:18,107
It's very important to start thinking about,

881
01:13:18,267 --> 01:13:20,407
okay, if this happens, then what am I going to do?

882
01:13:20,507 --> 01:13:22,267
If the other thing happens, what am I going to do?

883
01:13:22,607 --> 01:13:24,807
And that's what I'm thinking about for my wealth.

884
01:13:25,467 --> 01:13:30,687
Unfortunately, I don't have a guaranteed job

885
01:13:30,687 --> 01:13:32,787
from a Bitcoin treasury company,

886
01:13:32,787 --> 01:13:35,447
so I can't just rest on my laurels, Brandon.

887
01:13:35,447 --> 01:13:37,587
I have to sit here and actually be an investor.

888
01:13:38,767 --> 01:13:40,207
Well, I mean, I was going to say,

889
01:13:40,287 --> 01:13:41,787
hey, dude, you got approached by 18,

890
01:13:41,907 --> 01:13:44,927
so you might be the next Bitcoin influencer at this point.

891
01:13:45,527 --> 01:13:47,867
It's so unlikely that I would take...

892
01:13:47,867 --> 01:13:49,247
The problem is this, right?

893
01:13:49,307 --> 01:13:50,707
If you take...

894
01:13:50,707 --> 01:13:52,467
These people are getting very excited

895
01:13:52,467 --> 01:13:54,567
about joining these boards and whatever, right?

896
01:13:54,647 --> 01:13:56,907
I guarantee you there's going to be lawsuits flying.

897
01:13:57,027 --> 01:13:59,107
I guarantee you there's going to be all these kinds of things

898
01:13:59,107 --> 01:14:00,347
if this thing falls apart.

899
01:14:00,347 --> 01:14:07,787
And, you know, you've got to be very, very careful with what advisory shares you take and what legal liabilities of all that is.

900
01:14:08,367 --> 01:14:14,207
And most importantly, you want me to sell out for $250,000 a year?

901
01:14:14,307 --> 01:14:16,067
Like, what are we talking about right now?

902
01:14:16,307 --> 01:14:26,487
I made a commitment that when I started making videos, I, you know, I at least could make a video every day for eight years without taking a single penny.

903
01:14:26,647 --> 01:14:28,227
And that's when I decided that I would do it.

904
01:14:28,227 --> 01:14:31,107
It doesn't mean I won't make any money from YouTube or whatever.

905
01:14:31,107 --> 01:14:35,887
And everyone knows, like if you follow me on X so far, all of them, all of the revenues

906
01:14:35,887 --> 01:14:47,870
that I not monetized on YouTube all of the revenues that X forces you to take once you have a premium account basically get donated to the Clock Tower Foundation which supports active duty and past members

907
01:14:47,870 --> 01:14:49,290
of the British Special Forces.

908
01:14:50,090 --> 01:14:52,650
So that's really it.

909
01:14:52,770 --> 01:14:53,750
I'm an investor.

910
01:14:54,050 --> 01:14:59,390
I invest my capital, and I make decisions on that, and I'm a business owner.

911
01:15:01,190 --> 01:15:04,510
I doubt I'm going to be taking a treasury company position.

912
01:15:04,510 --> 01:15:08,790
But if I do, we can get on another stream and laugh about it.

913
01:15:09,570 --> 01:15:10,570
Yeah, exactly.

914
01:15:10,710 --> 01:15:12,170
We'll have to have you back on that.

915
01:15:12,490 --> 01:15:17,530
The British huddle turned Bitcoin influencer of a treasury company.

916
01:15:17,770 --> 01:15:20,130
They're going to love that, by the way.

917
01:15:20,230 --> 01:15:24,530
If I sell out like all these other people, no one gets any flack for selling out.

918
01:15:24,670 --> 01:15:28,130
If I sell out, oh, man, it's going to be ridiculous.

919
01:15:28,630 --> 01:15:30,330
It's going to be 100%.

920
01:15:30,330 --> 01:15:33,170
We're going to start to see some fireworks here.

921
01:15:33,170 --> 01:15:41,730
So that next spot that we have on where you're going to be the Bitcoin influencer of this treasury company, that'll be absolute fireworks, man.

922
01:15:41,990 --> 01:15:42,910
That'll be hilarious.

923
01:15:43,230 --> 01:15:49,090
So, yeah, no, that's another reason why, you know, there's no incentive to actually do it.

924
01:15:49,190 --> 01:15:53,450
And plus, like, you know, what creative shit can you do?

925
01:15:54,110 --> 01:15:54,890
Like, think about it.

926
01:15:54,930 --> 01:15:58,950
Like, outside of strategy, what are they doing?

927
01:15:59,170 --> 01:16:00,770
They're ATMing a fucking stock.

928
01:16:00,770 --> 01:16:09,970
the only one that might be able to generate some exciting things in my opinion is smarter web

929
01:16:09,970 --> 01:16:15,290
company in the uk and meta planet right because they're at a point where they're growing fast

930
01:16:15,290 --> 01:16:19,690
enough and they've got enough you know momentum behind them where they may be able to start

931
01:16:19,690 --> 01:16:24,330
tapping into the fixed income markets in those countries and whatever else and we'll see whether

932
01:16:24,330 --> 01:16:30,430
they manage to do that or not and by the way i invested in nakamoto that's running those things

933
01:16:30,430 --> 01:16:32,990
So I'm covered, right?

934
01:16:33,630 --> 01:16:36,170
Those are the ones that are exciting.

935
01:16:36,270 --> 01:16:36,930
All these other ones.

936
01:16:36,990 --> 01:16:38,910
And like I said, I will stand by it.

937
01:16:40,090 --> 01:16:49,050
Unless Nakamoto and UTXO and David Bailey are running your Bitcoin treasury company,

938
01:16:50,570 --> 01:16:55,390
investing in a Bitcoin influencer is going to be the single worst investment that those companies do.

939
01:16:55,390 --> 01:17:02,010
yeah so if you invest in british hodl running a company he's already telling you he's gonna do a

940
01:17:02,010 --> 01:17:11,410
bad job absolutely 100 100 it's gonna be terrible but here's the reason but you know the reason why

941
01:17:11,410 --> 01:17:15,190
right like i'm not just saying that because they're shit they're not shit like the influencers

942
01:17:15,190 --> 01:17:20,610
have the ability to do what they do but the real success is going to come from institutional capital

943
01:17:20,610 --> 01:17:23,990
not from retail.

944
01:17:24,330 --> 01:17:26,590
So you'll get your pumps and your dumps and whatever else.

945
01:17:27,090 --> 01:17:32,430
But Bitcoin influencers don't have the ability to move the type of capital

946
01:17:32,430 --> 01:17:35,790
that's going to make any significant impact for anyone who's holding long term.

947
01:17:36,790 --> 01:17:36,990
Yeah.

948
01:17:37,170 --> 01:17:39,010
No, I mean, I agree with you 100%.

949
01:17:39,010 --> 01:17:42,290
I mean, we definitely got, you know, once the big players are in,

950
01:17:42,430 --> 01:17:44,250
those are the people that are moving markets.

951
01:17:44,430 --> 01:17:44,610
It's not...

952
01:17:45,690 --> 01:17:46,990
Think about this.

953
01:17:47,270 --> 01:17:50,210
Imagine we set up.

954
01:17:50,210 --> 01:18:04,813
We zinn up and we set up a Bitcoin treasury company right And we at the point where we like okay we buying bitcoin now what can we do to expand our bitcoin purchasing and the brightest fucking idea that we

955
01:18:04,813 --> 01:18:11,213
come up with is hiring a bitcoin influencer we're fucked like why should anyone want to invest in

956
01:18:11,213 --> 01:18:17,253
our fucking company at that point well and then that guy or girl or whoever is usually probably

957
01:18:17,253 --> 01:18:23,893
just putting in hey how can i do this like into chat gbt and trying to come up to emulate uh micro

958
01:18:23,893 --> 01:18:30,773
strategy because a lot of them you know don't have the experience in uh the trad fi world as it stands

959
01:18:30,773 --> 01:18:35,333
either they just put a microphone in front of their face and started blowing hot air i'm one of

960
01:18:35,333 --> 01:18:43,573
them so i mean i i get it but yeah i mean you know it happens but uh it's it's interesting definitely

961
01:18:43,573 --> 01:18:49,653
to see the kind of development of this whole space because it's just everything so new and now people

962
01:18:49,653 --> 01:18:55,653
are trying to mix the you know the old uh traditional financial world with this new bitcoin

963
01:18:55,653 --> 01:19:01,513
world and nobody seems to know what the hell is going on man i don't know it's just a lot of people

964
01:19:01,513 --> 01:19:06,833
throwing darts at a board and trying to figure it out listen at the end of the day like i know

965
01:19:06,833 --> 01:19:08,773
I'm telling you what's going on.

966
01:19:09,213 --> 01:19:17,573
Retail is being, you know, manipulated like by TradFi, which is exactly what happens every single time.

967
01:19:17,693 --> 01:19:23,053
And they're going to use whatever tools and tactics they have to secure as much Bitcoin in the TradFi markets as possible.

968
01:19:23,313 --> 01:19:24,373
I've been saying this for three years.

969
01:19:24,773 --> 01:19:26,933
This is nothing new.

970
01:19:27,553 --> 01:19:29,393
Nothing new is happening here.

971
01:19:29,393 --> 01:19:33,073
Just the wrapper of a Bitcoin treasury company is new.

972
01:19:33,073 --> 01:19:39,153
outside of that there is nothing new going on except the number the number one thing that

973
01:19:39,153 --> 01:19:44,493
everyone needs to pay attention to is that you can actually buy the underlying asset this happened

974
01:19:44,493 --> 01:19:49,673
in the boot in in the dot-com bubble the difference was you couldn't buy a piece of the internet now

975
01:19:49,673 --> 01:19:55,773
you can just buy bitcoin well what's you're saying that you tell everybody uh you know here

976
01:19:55,773 --> 01:20:00,933
british huddle that we had max kaiser on this show show repeat for you that was fucking awesome by

977
01:20:00,933 --> 01:20:06,613
the way you know why that was so awesome is because max is the first human i ever heard the

978
01:20:06,613 --> 01:20:12,553
word bitcoin from when he had his rt show so the fact that he even like knows who british huddle is

979
01:20:12,553 --> 01:20:18,233
is insane to me uh and the fact that he knows the saying is even more crazy to me but the fact is

980
01:20:18,233 --> 01:20:23,733
is that ultimately brandon there's only three rules to bitcoin step number one you buy bitcoin

981
01:20:23,733 --> 01:20:30,913
step number two shut the fuck up and step number three you get fabulously wealthy there we go we

982
01:20:30,913 --> 01:20:31,653
We always love it.

983
01:20:31,693 --> 01:20:33,273
So that'll be a great way to wrap it up.

984
01:20:33,353 --> 01:20:35,373
Everybody go check out British Hottles channel.

985
01:20:35,693 --> 01:20:36,453
He's a legend.

986
01:20:36,913 --> 01:20:38,593
British, thanks so much for coming on.

987
01:20:38,753 --> 01:20:40,493
And we got to have you on again.

988
01:20:40,733 --> 01:20:43,293
I'm sure we'll have you on like once a quarter at this point

989
01:20:43,293 --> 01:20:45,953
because it's always electric to have you on.

990
01:20:46,033 --> 01:20:47,433
So thank you so much for your time.

991
01:20:47,593 --> 01:20:50,933
And hey, shut the fuck up and buy Bitcoin, baby.

992
01:20:51,333 --> 01:20:52,033
My pleasure.

993
01:20:52,033 --> 01:20:54,653
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode

994
01:20:54,653 --> 01:20:56,933
of the State of Bitcoin podcast.

995
01:20:57,113 --> 01:20:58,333
If you found some value in this one,

996
01:20:58,333 --> 01:21:02,733
please hit that subscribe button and that like button to help send this one to the masses. And

997
01:21:02,733 --> 01:21:06,953
I've got a surprise for you guys. I've got two more episodes that you have the chance to watch

998
01:21:06,953 --> 01:21:10,313
here. So go ahead and click one of them and I'll see you guys all at the next one.