You know, Bitcoin's trying to be co-opted,
Saylor's trying to be co-opted,
something along those lines.
What do you mean?
Like, this is the moronic bullshit.
What are we talking about co-opted?
The market is moving in the direction of
two of the biggest holders in MSTR,
and they're openly anti-Bitcoins.
How are they anti-Bitcoin?
I don't care what Jamie Dimon thinks.
The C-suite of the US government is pro-Bitcoin.
Wall Street is pro-Bitcoin.
Larry Fink is pro-Bitcoin.
What that tells you if you're intelligent and you're smart enough to look at how price is moving,
you can clearly see that there is a bed of buying going on.
Your chance of getting to one Bitcoin goes further away from you.
What's up, guys?
Before we get started, I've realized that over 50,000 of you guys keep coming back for every single episode.
And while I'm eternally grateful for you guys to keep coming back,
I've realized that 79% of you guys are not subscribed.
So I have one small ask before we get started.
If you guys could hit that subscribe button and hit that like button to help send this interview and many more to the stratosphere, it would be greatly appreciated.
All right, enough from me. Let's get into the show.
Notes, apparently.
Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, recurring guest, British HODL.
I had to bring you back on because everybody's freaking out, man.
And looks like MSTR, all the Bitcoin treasury companies, they're decoupled from Bitcoin price and it's all over, right?
So we should just pack it up.
Saylor got 3% of the total supply and it's done from here, right?
How many coffees are you in right now?
That's what I want to know.
Only three.
At what time is it right now where you're at?
It is 8.04 a.m., man.
I come in with the energy hot, British.
You got to know this about me, man.
And what time did you wake up today?
I woke up at 7, so it was a little late, honestly.
So you've got 600 milligrams of caffeine in one hour.
Awesome.
Look, I'm a different animal and the same beast, many are saying.
Let's go.
Yeah, I mean, what do you want to talk about?
Look, you know, we've got crybabies all over the place.
What do you want?
Let's talk about them.
Yeah, so tell me a little bit more about this,
because everybody is kind of thinking that, hey, you know, these Bitcoin treasury companies are
coming online. I think there's over 170 now at the time of this recording. And if you look at how
they were performing, everybody, you know, had the general sense when it was basically MSTR,
maybe there was the Metaplanets and some of these others. But for the most part, all eyes were on
MSTR. And now it seems like there's so many different companies that, you know, this quote
unquote decoupling from the Bitcoin price is getting more, I guess, let's call it notoriety
or more publicity. And everybody is worried that there's not going to be room and they miss the
boat maybe on these Bitcoin treasury companies. Now, I know you're the MSTR bull of the MSTR
bulls over here, but where do you see this going? Do you see others failing in an attempt to emulate
sailor or do you see uh you know it it just kind of i guess not being as predictable as as many think
so let's let's just let's just frame what people what these people that are complaining have done
first right because we can then lay the groundwork and once we understand what they've done we can
then figure out whether their concerns are of merit or not so step number one what they've done is
they've sold their bitcoin right they had big i'm assuming that they were smart enough to hold
bitcoin they've sold their bitcoin step number two they have then gone and exchanged that that
bitcoin for a 7xm nav treasury company so what they've done is effectively if bitcoin's a hurdle
rate, they have given over one Bitcoin and exchanged it for 0.14 Bitcoin.
Right.
Now, those treasury, because all they were seeing on Twitter or everywhere else was,
OK, cool, XYZ treasury company is going to perform, is going to go absolutely nuts.
So they exchanged one Bitcoin for 0.14 Bitcoin with the hope that whichever nerd is running
whichever treasury company is going to be able to make up that difference.
Right.
because bitcoin's a hurdle rate so you've got to get you've got to accumulate the bitcoin so then
these treasury companies that are 7x m nav have decided to compress that m nav down to 2x
who would have thought when their main business operation is selling the m nav to buy more bitcoin
right and so they've sold their they've sold down their stock price in order to buy more bitcoin
The market has sold down their stock price because it's the summer.
And for decades, the overall investment market has a saying called sell in May and go away for a reason.
And now what these guys have basically proceeded to do is shit themselves because they've come to the realization that they've sold their Bitcoin and now they have to actually wait.
They have to actually be an investor and actually wait, because what they were hoping for was that 7xMNAV company was going to shoot to a 14xMNAV company the day after they decided to buy.
So really what we're facing is a psychosis of utter morons when it comes to investing.
Right. And now they're shouting about it on Twitter and everywhere else.
And, you know, they're entertaining for real investors and their quote unquote signal for other retail morons that are listening to this.
The reality of the situation is this.
MNAV is going to contract and expand around the Bitcoin stack that these companies have.
It's never going to be fixed.
So at some point, it's going to be 7x. At some point, it's going to be a 2x. At another point, it's going to be a 5x. It's a constantly moving number. Combine all of that with the fact that we've now got the sell in may and go away period, which is historically the lowest volatility and the lowest volumes in the markets.
And these people are going, why is this happening?
Well, morons, we got the lowest volatility and the lowest volumes in the market, not just in Bitcoin, but across the whole broad spectrum of the market.
You've seen the Nasdaq pull back. You've seen all these things happen.
So, yeah, look, it's completely normal for one of these treasury companies to have its MNAV, you know, cycle around whatever Bitcoin is doing.
And everyone's got to realize like once you make this trade, the worst part about it is this.
This is like the two standard deviation moron basically, right?
So they get into – they sell their Bitcoin.
They get into a 7X MNAV treasury company.
That 7X MNAV treasury company compresses down to 2X.
They look on Twitter and now everyone's talking about another 5X MNAV treasury company.
So they sell at a 2XM NAV and they buy the 5XM NAV treasury company, further diluting their Bitcoin position.
And they just keep doing this until they get back to where they were, which is no Bitcoin.
Yeah. And you know what's interesting?
You're talking about these Bitcoin treasury companies kind of in general, but obviously, you know, MSTR is a different animal, to say the very least.
I mean, if you look back at Michael Saylor's buys, I think there's only two weeks since Donald Trump got elected that strategy hasn't bought Bitcoin.
So they keep just adding to that Bitcoin per share.
Now, it's kind of chopped sideways as well with that, right?
There hasn't really been much of, you know, a move in the upward trend.
And obviously, Saylor's doing a bunch of different techniques with the strike, strive, stride, all of these different traditional financial tools to buy more Bitcoin.
Now, how does he keep doing this?
Is there ever going to be a way where Saylor is not going to be able to get more debt issued?
Or is it just essentially all of these investors just going into, you know, whatever type of product that Saylor's putting out and buying all of it that is allowing him to basically just keep buying more Bitcoin?
Like, where does it stop here?
Well, firstly, he's not issued any debt for months, right?
Because a preferred stock sale is not classified as debt.
what he's offered is he will pay a particular dividend and on certain products give a call
option on the price of mstr and the preferred income markets are basically looking at that
going yeah i kind of like that um and those products obviously have just launched so they've
they've gone out and offered a uh you know a palette of of these offerings and we'll see which
ones the markets like the best um but they're just getting started right mstr is the only company
Name one other treasury company that's doing anything else besides ATMs.
Yeah, you have a very hard time doing it.
Right.
So strategy has decided that they are going to be the ones to tap the fixed income markets.
They are going to be the winners because traditional finance and likes the biggest player in the game.
They have 600,000 Bitcoin now, 3% of the supply as of yesterday.
And look, at the end of the day, besides 21 Capital, which basically got 42,000 Bitcoin donated to it by its founding members, all of these treasury companies combined have bought less than 10 to 15% of strategy's total stack.
and everyone's coming here going oh xyz company is going to compete with strategy kiss my ass
are they going to compete with strategy it's over strategy wins that's it it's as simple as that all
these other ones are now going to play for who's going to be the second and i like the game right
i own i own pretty much like i don't know i own like nine of them but it's with less than one
percent of my network it doesn't matter it's an insignificant amount um and i'm buying them really
to keep my activity bias at bay and i invested in i invested in i want to be very clear as we
talk about this i invested in the pipe deal for nakamoto which i think is the only treasury
company that brings anything unique beyond selling an atm well let's let's dive into that in a minute
First, I want to go into MetaPlanet because it seems like Saylor brings up Japan at every single, whether it's his earnings call or his talks at Bitcoin Prague, all of these things.
He's always mentioning Japan and MetaPlanet.
And he kind of describes Japan as almost like the perfect market for these types of products, what he's doing right now.
So, I mean, it's going to be a long ways away, and I don't think that MetaPlanet will ever catch strategy.
But he said, you know, this is words from Sailor that if anybody were to ever come close, it would be MetaPlanet.
Now, listen, it's the gentlemanly, the best thing to do to basically complement.
And by the way, I'm not saying that Sailor's lying here.
Dylan and Simon have done, and the whole team there have done a phenomenal job.
I own MetaPlanet stock, right?
I think they've done a phenomenal job at accumulating Bitcoin at the pace that they've been accumulating at.
So if you're going to compliment anyone, those are the guys to compliment because they've done a great job.
And the Japanese markets are really, really good for this type of product because they don't have a Bitcoin ETF.
You cannot put Bitcoin in a retirement account.
and if you buy Bitcoin and sell it, you got a 55% tax.
So why wouldn't you go and buy Bitcoin exposure through MetaPlanet
until something else shows up and then they're going to have to compete with that?
So we'll see.
But they've done a phenomenal job.
Yeah, I mean, they definitely have.
And Dylan, he's just a bright guy on the scene and everything like that.
He's exploding, getting more Bitcoin on their balance sheet at every other turn as well.
So, I mean, I really, you know, I admire what those guys are doing over there.
But you brought up Nakamoto in this pipe deal, dude.
Why do you think that this is, or no, tell me why this is different than any other ATM product that you're seeing out there.
Because obviously, you know, it is kind of, the way I look at these treasury companies is there's some like, you know, similar scientific that have an underlying, you know, business that was around for some time.
And then they decided to put Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
Metaplanet could maybe be in that as well.
strategy as well. But it seems like Nakamoto is just basically their whole
company is just raising debt to buy more Bitcoin. So tell me how this is different and like,
yeah, unveil the curtain a little bit for us to help us understand how this one could potentially
be pretty different. Yeah. So, okay. So what did I say to start with? I said,
all of these treasury companies, their only method of acquiring Bitcoin right now is basically what
strategy has been doing for three years now, right? They've not come out with anything innovative.
In fact, I saw a video of one of these CEOs begging people to buy the stock because it was
under a 1MNAP, right? I can't remember which company it was. But I mean, I don't think that's,
I don't think that's good.
But look, at the end of the day, what David Bailey has done and what Tyler and UTXO have
done is proven that they know how to set up strategy.
They know how to set up execution.
They know how to get local regulations.
And they know how to identify markets where there is enough trapped capital to actually
make these companies work. They've proven it in Japan. They've proven it in, I think it's Sweden
now. They've proven it in, or is it Norway? I think it might be Norway with H100. They've proven
it in the UK with SWC. They've got a proven track record for launching these things. And they've got
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Bitcoin today. Salt Lending, secure, trusted, proven. Which is the media engine. The fact that
they can go anywhere in the world and create an army, a frenzy of Bitcoin attention anywhere at
any time, right? That's extremely powerful. And you cannot just go and buy that amount of
marketing. What's everyone going to do? They're going to have like 17 different Bitcoin conferences
on an annual basis. It's not going to work. The biggest one is going to win. He's got the first
mover advantage and he got the most dominating business and dominating marketing in that space They about like it is phenomenal what they done And if you don think that they going to use that marketing engine to benefit Nakamoto I mean you got
something else coming. I can absolutely foresee that anywhere there is a Nakamoto set up treasury
company, there is a Bitcoin conference that is going to take that local market by absolute storm.
And so I think they've proven their case. I think they've demonstrated that they can do it.
And I think that the media engine behind it is extremely valuable, which none of these other treasury companies have.
Just wait.
You know, again, look, I'm a shareholder of Nakamoto, but I absolutely don't have any advisory shares.
I absolutely don't get a paycheck from them or any other treasury company.
I speak strictly as an investor and what I would want to see.
I don't have any insider information. I don't do any of that. Right. When it comes to treasury
companies. And that's another thing that's been quite interesting as well to see like, quote,
unquote, you know, Bitcoin influencers basically like take jobs at treasury companies is is kind
of interesting, you know, to me. I don't know. I want to see how that sort of shakes out. Right.
It's like you've got these treasury companies that have said, you know, we're going to become
a Bitcoin treasury company. We're going to do exactly what strategy did for the last three
years. And it's the only thing that we're going to do because we can't do anything else. Because
if anyone wants to issue any debt or buy any debt, they're going to buy strategy debt. So the only
thing we can do is pump the stock and do the ATM. You know what we're going to do? We're going to go
hire a Bitcoin influencer as if retail has enough money to do this. And it just like it's it's I
I don't know. It's weird to me, right? It's just weird.
Nakamoto and David Bailey and Tyler at UTXO and the whole team there have proven that they can actually think past, you know, the retail frame and actually create incentive-based treasury companies that forces trapped capital into them.
That's what's unique there.
And then you add on the media engine, forget about it.
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting you bring up the media engine because I mean, of course, I knew that with David Bailey, but I never really thought of the true advantages that you're lining out here. And just for the record, dude, these Bitcoin influencers that are getting asked to be in treasury companies, I'm not one of them, apparently, I guess I'm not pretty enough. Maybe it's the shitty mustache or the backwards hat. I don't know, man, but I'm not getting asked to join any of these, these ones. But I do see that trend. And I mean, I've always kind of thought that this makes sense.
because if you look at sailor right i mean he has you know millions of followers on twitter
you know anytime he goes and talks anywhere everybody's all ears on him like really trying
to dive in and you know he's been on the biggest of biggest podcasts and everything like that except
for joe rogan which i'm sure will come at some point in time but uh you know adding these other
guys of course they're not going to be on the you know uh stardom so to speak of sailor but
I always thought, okay, this makes sense for a little bit more marketing. But of course, with
Bitcoin Magazine behind Nakamoto, I mean, these conferences, it makes a million times more sense
as you're lining it out that way. So I mean, I definitely hear you with all of that. But I mean,
with- Let me say one thing. Let me say one thing. Let me say one. This is going to be
the controversial take. You ready? Okay. If your treasury company is not backed by UTXO, Nakamoto,
and the Bitcoin conference engine, Bitcoin influencers are going to end up being the
single worst investment that any of these treasury companies make. Damn. All right. Well, I guess
don't pick on me then. I don't want British Hottel coming for my neck if I'm getting the phone call.
I'm not going to come for anyone's neck. I haven't mentioned anyone, but everyone knows who I'm
talking about, right? Everyone knows the list. But they're going to be the single worst investment
for any of these treasury companies. And I would probably prefer that they took that, you know,
I mean, 250K or whatever the fuck they're paying them and bought Bitcoin with it. It's probably
going to be a better roi do you think that this is the potential of like the black swan maybe of
this cycle like last time we saw ftx celsius block fi like do you think this time it's the
treasury companies that are just you know not getting enough money to to keep the atm printing
basically no because they're tiny what they don't matter at all it's going to be great because if
they're trading at a you know a 0.6 m nav or whatever at some point and they've got let's say
they got four or five thousand Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Strategy just rolls up and says,
right, we now own you for MSTR stock. And every shareholder is going to say, yeah, thank fuck.
And that's it. Now strategy acquires four or five thousand Bitcoin, you know, from multiple
different places if they manage to get that many Bitcoin in the first place. Right. Like, no. And
also the thing that you've got to remember is, is that just because if there is a treasury company
bear market doesn't mean that they have to actually sell the Bitcoin because the Bitcoin's
unencumbered. They're selling the stock in order to buy the Bitcoin. They're not issuing debt.
So they don't have to sell the Bitcoin unless it gets to the point where they don't have enough
runway to manage their running costs. And in that scenario, every shareholder is going to say,
let's sell to strategy or let's sell to one of the other big guys. So no, I don't think so.
That's what I mean. By the way, I support all of them. No matter what I'm saying, I support all of them because they're all buying Bitcoin.
Right. Like they're all they're all their goal of, you know, whichever board sat up and said, you know, we've got enough Zins in our mouth.
Let's go buy Bitcoin. They're buying Bitcoins. Right. So it's all good from that perspective.
I just think that, you know, when it comes to treasury companies, like you got to be, if you're looking at a long-term investment, which is what I do, I'm not a trader.
So I'm not trading in and out of these things.
If you're looking at a long-term investment, you got to be very, very careful and decide very carefully which ones you, which ones you're interested in.
Yeah.
So, you know, when we're getting down there and I mean, I guess I agree in that sense.
Cause I mean, of course, unless, you know, strategy just goes belly up, which I find it very hard to believe that.
How?
how no no how yeah i don't i don't see it i i personally just don't see it but i mean like i
said if strategy were to go under uh you know belly up that would be the only one that could
potentially cause this black swan event i guess in this scenario just because of how much bitcoin
they have but they don't but all the bitcoins unencumbered and they've got a what is it a 20
debt ratio. Who cares? They have played the game so well and strategy has done so well at playing
this game to accumulate 3% of the Bitcoin. It's done. It's game over. But I thought a couple of
years ago, everybody in TradFi was saying when Bitcoin was crashing, strategy was going to go
belly up there, British. Yeah, but these are idiots you're talking about again. At the end of
the day, what people didn't realize was that, you know, strategy was not issuing debt in order to
buy this Bitcoin. They were ATMing the stock, right? And now the amount of convertible debt,
you know, that they've got load up that they've got on the balance sheet is like 20% and it's
unencumbered to the Bitcoin. And now they've issued these preferred products and they're
offering like 9% dividend yield, which is the highest one, which basically they can turn off
at any time that they're going to pay by ATMing the stock. And they've also said, if Saylor said
this, I'm glad he clarified this at the last one of his talks that he did, but you don't have to
buy Bitcoin to increase Bitcoin per share, right? If they want to go and let's say they've got $10
billion or whatever from one of these products once they get rolling, they can just buy the stock.
They can buy the common stock and that would increase the Bitcoin per share ratio too.
yeah and i mean they're using there i mean they're being i i mean i don't think anybody can really
catch sailor and even get remotely close maybe even not even halfway to the amount of bitcoin
that they've got on the balance sheet at this point in time but here's why though right here
the reason why is very important why they can't do that is because every bitcoin that any one of
these other companies buys pushes sailor further ahead because for the first time in history you
don't have to stock pick, which is what's beautiful for the average investor, because you don't have
to sit there and go, you know, which Bitcoin influencer is going to pump the stock next.
You can just buy the Bitcoin. Well, there you go. I mean, then that makes all the sense in the
world. But I mean, you know, we did see something interesting that I think is maybe a wrinkle in all
of this with Intel the other day, where now the US allegedly owns like 10% of all of Intel.
Now, there's obviously the conspiracy theories on Bitcoin Twitter where the U.S. government is going to buy up strategy and then that's going to be the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Is that a potential like another potential black swan event that you foresee or do you think that that is just completely blown in a proportion?
Why would that be a black swan event if the U.S. said, you know, we're going to take capital and buy up 10% of strategy?
well i i think people would then think you know bitcoin's trying to be co-opted sailors trying to
be co-opted something along those lines where people would what do you mean this is the moronic
bullshit that these idiots come out what are we talking about co-opted there it's an it's it's a
U.S. publicly listed company. Like, what more co-opted could you get? It's, like, I don't
understand these idiots. Like, it is a American publicly listed audited company. It's the highest
form of scrutiny in America, highest form of regulatory scrutiny in America,
which is the highest form of scrutiny for any capital markets anywhere in the world. That's why
America has the best capital markets, because it does provide the most amount of scrutiny and
transparency and the most amount of trust. So what are we talking about? BlackRock's in the game.
The president is in the game.
What do you mean, co-opted?
I knew I had to get you going here, man.
I had to get you going, British.
I mean, but what do you think of, I mean, like all of this?
Obviously, we've got, you know, everybody seemingly bending the knee to Bitcoin these days.
I mean, we've got Goldman Sachs now just doubled up their Bitcoin holdings.
And the interesting part is like we've got Vanguard and JP Morgan as two of the biggest
holders in MSTR.
This bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody and
off exchanges.
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We had Celsius, FTX, all of the big dogs blowing up.
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enough from me. Let's get back to the show. And they're openly anti-Bitcoin. So I mean-
How are they anti-Bitcoin? They're openly pushing people into MSTR. How are they anti-Bitcoin?
Well, Vanguard doesn't let their clients, I think, buy the ETFs as it stands right now. And then
Jamie Dimon, I mean, JP Morgan does, but Jamie Dimon is just openly against Bitcoin in the media.
But what did he say, though? He said the demand is there, so we will allow people to do it.
I don't care what Jamie Dimon thinks. The market is moving in the direction of Bitcoin.
The president is moving in the direction of Bitcoin. The C-suite of the U.S. government is pro-Bitcoin.
The C-suite of Wall Street is pro-Bitcoin. Larry Fink is pro-Bitcoin. Vanguard is pro-Bitcoin because they own MSTR.
This is just like, this is this.
And by the way, Charles Schwab just changed their tune on Bitcoin.
Like, all of this is pro-Bitcoin.
The problem that people have on Twitter is that it's not being reflected in price action minute by minute like yesterday.
But if you're smart enough to understand how, hold on a second.
Someone's fucking trying to disturb us.
Let me just turn this off.
If you're sitting there going, you know, and you're smart enough to look at how price is moving, you can clearly see that there is a bed of buying going on.
Because even when Galaxy Digital dumped, you know, half a percent of the overall supply onto the market over a few days, it had a 3% price impact.
And what that tells you, if you're intelligent, is that there is a consistent bed of buy orders in the market.
And that's how institutional and that's how big buyers play the game.
They're not retail.
They're not Twitter.
Twitter would say, oh, it's gone up 6%.
I better buy now before I miss out on the next 10%.
Institutional doesn't do that.
It puts a trailing buy order in place, and it just sits there and waits until the market pulls back.
well i mean we do we we have had like i guess the record of consecutive days over a hundred
thousand and obviously you know at the time of this recording we've got bitcoin at like 109 000
it's crashing and burning so i mean basically it's over at this which is another fucking stupid
thing like imagine we had the usual pullbacks that we have in previous markets like 30 these people
would be jumping off cliffs and stuff like what are we talking about this is a 13 pullback in the
months of lowest volume lowest liquidity when like and it's 13 not 30 which is what the usual is
and september is usually is like i think the only average month in all of bitcoin's history that has
like a negative return on that that month so i mean about august no well it's so they always say
september so it's always down in september and then october so it seems like we're kind of going
into that direction that general trend where you know september might be a little choppy sideways
and then you know we got uptober and moonvember then then everything everybody's happy you know
yeah listen it's uh there's so many idiots i'm so disappointed by the by this new cohort of owners
like i kind of i kind of wish they would sell to be honest with you well do you think that there's
i mean you know with bitcoin's new price action right obviously when it crossed at 100k it brought
in a lot more people and you know it seems like that is kind of the new wave i mean maybe they
came in just right at 100k towards the end of last year uh and this is kind of their first cycle so
to speak but you know you lined out all the buying pressure i mean obviously we've been talking about
the treasury companies these guys are buying every single month and then we do have the price where
it is right now where it's pulling back you know we've had some whales yeah take some off the top
but you know what's going to be that catalyst they just didn't just a lot just the two whales
that we know about, it's over 100,000 coins.
Yeah.
That's just the two that we know about.
Like, so, you know, that's a lot of selling pressure
that needs to be sucked up.
And at some point it will be.
That's the one thing I've been surprised with so far
is how long this rotation of ownership has taken.
And I said this a couple of years ago,
like there will be a rotation of holders And I been very surprised at how significant it it been yeah and you know it seems like that the pressure the buying pressure is there like
anytime anybody wants to sell those coins are getting scooped up almost immediately i mean we
saw it over the weekend right i mean when those 24 000 coins i think it was got dumped on the
market i mean it went down like five six thousand dollars which is maybe you know three four percent
and then immediately went back to almost where it was.
So everybody was just kind of waiting to buy all that.
They see it.
Everybody's buying all back up.
But with the changing of hands that we're starting to see
and the big players starting to come in,
do you see this kind of changing the way that we're going to see cycles
in the future?
Because strategy is not selling these, like you lined out,
these treasury companies, the guys with the big monies,
they're not going to be traders.
They're going to be a little bit more, I guess, call it like diamond hand like the meme.
But is that going to be like lowering the downside risk but maybe hurting the upside volatility?
Or is it just going to cause this supply shock?
Yeah, look, there's two ways to really have like a major bear market, right?
Number one is if people start dumping Bitcoin, right?
That's number one.
I don't think that the buyers that are now holding would start dumping Bitcoin.
ETFs are an interesting one because ETFs don't own it.
There's an end user on the ETF.
So we've got to try and figure out who is the end user of these ETFs and what their holding patterns are like.
The second way that a bear market can happen is if this consistent buying of that bed of buying buy orders that I was talking about,
if all of that just disappears.
right if there is a coordinated let's just pause buying and let's say for example let's say it's
200 million dollars a day of buying orders right if all of that just disappears and it goes down
to five million dollars a day you're going to see the price come come down real quick because price
is of course set at the margin right so the question then becomes a game theoretic question
which is who blinks first does if the price comes down 30 does a big player go you know what no no
no that's enough for us i know we kind of agreed to let it drop 60 70 80 percent but 30 is enough
for us let's start putting in some buy orders right who blinks first i don't know that that's
going to be another another thing so i think that it's really hard to tell with this cycle because
of the actual institutional buying and the price action that we've seen.
And of course, you may not see a blow off top because if retail is not involved, retail
is the one that creates blow off tops, not institutions.
Institutions don't create blow off tops, right?
Because they're not chasing the trade.
They're waiting for.
And really, that's why we've seen this, you know, stair step up, consolidate, stair step
up, consolidate method or price action that's in the market, not this chase the bull, which
is what retail does.
So it depends how long it takes retail to get into the game. If retail doesn't get into the game, we're not going to see the type of bear market that we've seen before because there won't be a blow off top. Markets are typically symmetrical, right? So in order to see a massive bear market, you've got to see a massive blow off top. And if that blow off top doesn't happen, then you're not going to see the massive bear market.
so you're telling me that the you know this that spaghetti boy is right with all of this right
where we're gonna have diminishing returns is that what you're saying british that uh you know
we're having this power law where we're converging here or what well firstly spaghetti boys uh which
by the way we're kind of friends now i don't know really yeah i completely disagree with it
yeah no he uh he was pretty nice on twitter so i was like okay well so what do you do at this
point i basically i basically destroyed your entire uh social media presence and now you want
to be friends like what am i gonna do let's be friends no problem so it's like look he's got a
the power the power opinion model basically has a spread of somewhere between 50 000 and 500 000
right that's like the bottom and top bands sure you want to be right and say the power opinion
It's true if it ends up at, you know, 340 and then comes down to 80.
All right, cool.
No problem.
Is it useful for anyone?
In my opinion, no.
There are people that, you know, are religious fanatics about the power opinion, and they
tell me that they're going to sell if we get above 200,000.
All right, that's cool, too.
But what happens if you get above 200,000 and then a strategic reserve is announced
and a million coins are being purchased?
Tough luck.
This is crazy.
I'm just at the point now where it's like, what is the point?
Like, let them sell.
In fact, I want to encourage people to sell at this point.
I want to say get to minus one Bitcoin.
That's going to be my new thing.
Get to negative one Bitcoin.
So is getting to one Bitcoin done with?
Are we just packing it up?
Nobody.
It's been interesting, hasn't it?
Like at the end of the day, you know, I June.
So the get to one Bitcoin message really like had I had to turn on the F-35 fighter jets on that message like June 15th, 2023, because that was the day that BlackRock filed for the ETF.
And I remember distinctly I was living in I was living in South America at the time when we crossed 100,000 in December.
And I remember that night, like, sitting on my balcony, looking over the whole city, feeling really good, and then also feeling really shit at the same time.
It was a very bittersweet moment for me because at $100,000, it's like, get to one Bitcoin, really applies to like 0.4% of the world at this point.
and then you know i i was saying last year and a year before that that we're gonna go through this
period of pricing out certain levels of millionaires basically you can't get to one bitcoin
on a hundred thousand when it's a hundred thousand if you're not a millionaire i'm sorry it's not
happening right so that's out of the way but really i know people that are like worth two or
three or four million dollars that can't buy a hundred thousand dollar thing that they just
learned about yesterday because their property portfolio, which is where 90% of those people
have their money and where their wealth is created. What are you going to do? Sell a bedroom to buy
one Bitcoin? It's not going to happen. So it's a bittersweet thing. I still think it should be
the North Star of get to one Bitcoin. But the reality is now my message is kind of pivoting
towards people who have got many, many, many times more than $1 million. And I think that
they should get to about a 24% allocation of their overall net worth. And it's hard for them.
Like if you've got a $10 million, let's say you've got a $10 million business, right? So your net
worth is $10 million. What are you going to do to get to 24%? Like you really need to start
planning that. So yeah, I mean, look, at the end of the day, to get to one Bitcoin, I've never been
a happy hippie i've never been saying to people that you're just always gonna get you know the
chance to do this i told people time is gonna run out and you know i sat there looking at the whole
city going fucking time has run out man so it's done the get to one bitcoin is done i mean i always
love that message though even even right now even though it's it's it's very difficult because i
think the message of oh get to you know 0.01 bitcoin or or whatever it is i mean i think that's
just like undershooting it and i think you know even though we've had it let's say what it is it's
limp dick that's what it is i mean but if you look at like the wallets right because everything is
is public in bitcoin there's 13 million wallets with 1 million sats or more and there's 59 million
millionaires globally so you know even though we're at 100 000 109 000 i still think we're
we're still fairly early we got a long ways to go and you know shooting for something like
one Bitcoin, okay, maybe the average person, they're not going to be able to get there.
But I think it's better to try to shoot for something like that and not have the weak hands
that we're kind of seeing where, you know, you get the power opinion out here and they're like,
oh, well, it's above 200,000, so I'm going to sell. And then all of a sudden they're sitting
here, you know, with their hands in their pants, like, what the hell did I do? And why did I just
sell off at this place before Bitcoin went on its generational run? I mean, I think I still
resonate with that message and i think that people still still try to get to that one bitcoin
yeah me too i think it should should always be the north star i think before you should always
say like before i do anything stupid i'm going to get to one bitcoin right um and i i think it
should always be everyone's north star not you know 0.1 bitcoin i think that's weak limp dick
shit. I mean, I mean, amen to that. But, you know, now I want to dive into a little bit more
about the overall kind of macro economy. We've got Powell about to cut interest rates. And I think
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the show. I mean, if you look at the CME group and the market, like the prediction market, it says
like an 85% chance as of yesterday when I was checking all of this. So at least 25 basis points,
but like a couple of weeks ago, do you think he should? No, I don't. I don't think like, I mean,
if you've seen, if you've seen the Dixie, you see like real estate in the United States,
like all of these underlying factors, they're looking very poor. I mean, we've never had like
The real estate market right now in the United States is worse than it was in 2008.
Nobody's buying homes.
Now, will mortgage rates lowering cause all these people that have been allegedly sitting
on the sidelines to all magically buy houses right away?
I don't think so.
The housing market moves very slow.
I think the jobs market isn't very good right now.
I mean, I hear of college kids graduating and student loan delinquencies, credit card
delinquencies, all of these things are going up. And at the end of the day, I still think we have
inflation running pretty high. So everybody is just assuming we cut interest rates and everything's
going to be all fine and dandy. And I think it's just going to be the opposite. I think once we cut
interest rates, because we've already had that seemingly priced in, at least one or two cuts,
the market might crash. And everybody thinks that, oh, once Powell cuts interest rates,
we're going to go off to the moon and everything. Maybe Bitcoin will do well. Maybe I'm wrong about
that. And everything else will crash. But I think that we're in kind of an asset bubble right now.
And that's what really worries me is we're seeing just assets way overinflated. And Trump knows that
the way that people look at the market is how the S&P 500 for like the old boomers is doing,
and for the younger generation, how Bitcoin's doing. So everybody's assuming lowering interest
race is going to make both of those go up. And I don't necessarily think that's the case.
Yeah, it's going to, I mean, I don't even think that, you know, I think that a two and a half
percent cut may inspire, you know, activity in the real estate market and provide some relief.
I do not think, you know, 25 basis points is going to do any of that. I think that
we saw the PPI numbers come out.
Like, there doesn't seem to be any rational reason yet
to do any kind of, begin any kind of cutting cycle.
If anything, it's 25 basis points.
Because even when you look at the two-year,
it's not dropped enough, right, to justify any major cuts.
Now, it could even want to be preemptive, maybe.
But, you know, anything more than 25 basis points,
I think would be very, very preemptive cuts.
And that's when you could start seeing the market crash
if there's like massive cuts.
Like if what President Trump wants happens
where you start getting 1% interest rates,
yeah, I think you're gonna see the market crash.
And then would that, I mean, you know,
we're talking about some data that we're seeing,
we haven't seen since either COVID or maybe even 2008
when you kind of like take a look underneath the hood.
I mean, do you think that we're in that bad of an economic state where it's pretty much like a foregone conclusion that either we're going to have to massively print or we're going to go into a recession?
I don't think the U.S. is in a bad economic state.
I don't get what everyone's talking about.
I think the U.S. is looking pretty strong right now.
If anything, there's probably a risk of further inflation than there is anything else.
So I don't think the U.S. is in a bad enough state.
The Federal Reserve is really a backstop, right?
And my reason for not wanting him to cut rates is because it actually forces the president and the Treasury to start figuring out how to expand real liquidity rather than just lowering interest rates.
That's really the lever for the Fed.
It's lowering interest rates, right?
The Treasury has many more creative levers to increase liquidity, which is what I want to see.
I want to see increased liquidity.
Interest rates are really irrelevant to me.
from an asset perspective, especially because people can't borrow money to buy Bitcoin.
Or rather, the market for borrowing money to buy Bitcoin because you have lower interest rates
is ridiculous. Because if Bitcoin is kegering at 35%, 40% a year, borrowing at 4.5%, 5% is not
really a problem. So if that market was big enough, it would be happening now. So I don't see that.
I don't see the real estate market benefiting from a 25 basis point cut because these people
of refinance at half a percent. So, you know, unless you get back down there, what incentive
do you have to move houses? It doesn't make any sense. So I don't, yeah, I mean, I would prefer
if he doesn't cut rates for a while. Yeah. And I mean, you know, well, I guess we'll see on that,
but I mean, if anything, it's, it seems like we're going to just cut like two times, essentially,
maybe three times before Powell is, you know, out of the, the Fed, the, the Fed altogether back in
may and then trump's going to put somebody in office that's just going to want these zero percent
interest rates and so that's where i think things are going to get a little bit hairy
to say the least i mean he just fired a fed governor here i think last night um so i mean i
i don't know i mean it seems like him putting the pressure on him is is going to eventually
just cause them to cave and you know they're going to want to keep their position so eventually
Which, by the way, sends a terrible message.
I was thinking about it when President Trump said that he wants a 1% interest rate.
He thinks that 1% interest rates are good, and he wants a 1% interest rate.
Do you really think that a president having the button on interest rates is a good thing?
And even though I'm not an American, but I'm pro-Trump,
and the administration and its goals Like I don like that right Because at the end of the day if he can do it so can President Kamala Harris or President AOC in the future
Or, you know, like it could be whoever.
I don't like that.
For the first time in a long time, when he said that,
it made me go, thank God for the Federal Reserve, right?
Thank God that it's set up in the way that it's set up
where the Fed chair is not beholden to the president of the moment.
So is this, I guess, the risk risk we run if the Fed is ended where we have the president
essentially having like, you know, all of this power and, you know, we we get that where,
you know, they're in these four year terms, so they want to stay in power. So they'll just,
you know lower interest rates inflate the thing away and then hey you know what we'll be all fine
and dandy for like a year or two and then you know they got to clean it up again yeah i mean look
yeah at the end of the day like i don't think the us is going to go through that because you
you know the us is basically the best of of a of a pile basically when it comes to the us dollar
um so i don't think that i don't think it goes unchecked right but at the same time yeah like
Like, I do not want to see a president or a prime minister, for example, in my country, have the ability to lower interest rates at will.
Plus, they've got many ways to increase liquidity, you know, through the Treasury.
Like, Besant is not a moron.
Like, he is a shrewd killer when it comes to currency management.
So he'll know and they will create ways to generate liquidity because they've got midterms to win as well, right?
So you've got midterms coming up next year.
Like they got those to win as well.
So yeah, either way, liquidity is going up.
Whether it happens because of interest rates or not is not really relevant.
Yeah, and then everybody knows.
Everybody loves to show that liquidity, the global M2 money supply, all that correlated to the Bitcoin price.
So, I mean, I guess right now, right now that ain't working.
Yeah.
But I mean, they always say there's like 110 day lag or something like that.
I think that's the magic number.
I don't know why.
There's always some bullshit cope that these people have, right?
They put a chart up and then they've always got some kind of cope as to, you know, what's not happened.
Like at the end of the day, you know, yeah, there is some kind of correlation to asset prices and Global M2.
but I don't think people should be putting a chart.
Like anyone just can go on TradingView,
bring up the M2 chart, overlay it,
and fit it to whatever asset they're looking at.
And it will look like it's correlated.
Well, I mean, you already confirmed
that the power opinion is true here.
So, I mean, that's all we got to use to predict.
Use the power opinion.
Just cook some fucking spaghetti.
Don't snap it this time because we're friends now.
And look at the power opinion
and you're going to be all golden.
Oh my goodness. I can't believe you guys came together and had the kumbaya.
And now you guys are sitting at the campfire together.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Relax. Relax.
So far, we've got to potentially sharing a bottle of wine.
Like, that's where we've got to. We haven't got to the kumbaya moment yet.
Okay. Well, I'll be looking for that.
We got to have cameras on there because, I mean, my goodness.
After we saw the snap into the spaghetti,
I think we got to see that wine getting drunk by the two of you guys.
But, you know, you brought up Scott Bessent, and he recently came out and had a little bit of a hiccup in the news where he said that the U.S. isn't buying any more Bitcoin.
You know, obviously, they've backtracked a little bit of that, but I'm curious kind of what you think of this Bitcoin strategic reserve.
you know it seems like a lot of the bitcoiners are very i guess upset that they haven't been
moving quickly uh i'm kind of of the opinion that we might not see it this presidential term and we
might have to wait another three and a half four years before we actually see the u.s buying any
any bitcoin but i'm curious to hear kind of what you think of it and you know do you think that
this is a possibility that we even get it within you know donald trump's presidency here i i'm
I'm negatively surprised at the lack of support that Cynthia Lummis is getting for her bill.
That surprised me a lot, especially with the whole of government kind of approach to Bitcoin and crypto.
But he only took office January 21st.
It's now August 26th.
So we've got to give it time.
I'm bullish on this administration, but I'm not that bullish in the short term.
I'm also bullish because of conversations I've had with like Bitcoin Policy Institute guys and whatever else.
And they're all doing a good job. They're all working really hard to get the whole machine moving.
And I understand why people are disappointed, because we think that everyone's going to go through the Bitcoin learning curve at the same pace that we did it on YouTube.
Right. And that's just not the case. You're dealing with the entire U.S. government here and it's going to take time to get something like that moving.
And also, it's kind of hard to win votes when you say we're going to print money to buy Bitcoin and not print money to give it to you.
Right. Like that's a that's also a thing as well, which is why they came out very quickly.
uh all i do know is that the moment besant said that there were phone calls going on um in the
background which then led to like within three or four hours a complete reversal of that on twitter
so that was pretty good that showed how how strong you know of a of a lobbying department bitcoin now
has um and yeah look i i think that you know he misspoke yeah yeah and i mean like you said i
think we're only like what eight eight months into his presidency or so right now and i think
uh you know bitcoiners i don't know i i mean i almost have this general feeling that everybody
should be concerned the number one concern should be bitcoin but obviously there's a whole lot of
you know other issues going on in the united states to say the very least outside of just
you know making a bitcoin strategic reserve and that's kind of why i'm under the opinion that i
don't know if we'll we'll see a strategic reserve you know actually buying occur because i mean
they've said you know they're going to revalue the gold or that was an idea that was floated around
but that seems like very unlikely uh and they keep stretching stressing this budget neutral way to buy
bitcoin now uh i'm kind of curious do you think that that uh you know do you see that actually
happening or foresee like some sort of way figuring out some sort of way to not print money,
but add some liquidity, I guess, to the governmental balance sheet in a way to whether
it's through now, now through Doge, that seems to be not existent. They're going to find some other
way to, to basically do the budget neutral purchase. Or do you think they might just bend
the knee eventually and just be like, all right, you know what, we're going to use the taxpayer
dollars to buy some Bitcoin. I think it's going to be a combination of everything. I think it will
start off as budget neutral. And then once it starts making money, you know, if you buy,
let's say you buy $10 billion worth and suddenly it's worth $30 billion. Now you've got an incentive
to say, all right, let's go actually print some money to put this, to put it in there. So like I
said, I'm bullish on the total administration time. I'm not bullish short term on the strategic
reserve. And by the way, you know, it's quite funny to me when people that haven't got to one
Bitcoin yet are like disappointed in the fact that there's no strategic reserve. It's like,
you do realize that as soon as there is a strategic reserve,
your chance of getting to one Bitcoin goes further away from you.
Like you should be counting your blessings every single day
that there is no strategic reserve
because you still have time to get to that one Bitcoin.
Yeah, it's interesting because everybody in the Bitcoin space
kind of stresses the long time horizon.
But when Bitcoin goes down by like three or 4%,
it seems like everybody's ready to jump off a cliff and it's all over.
They're fucking selling.
Right now I'm seeing that there's people like selling Bitcoins by Ethereum.
Yeah.
What's up with that?
Do you think that these like what Tom Lee is doing, the, you know, Ethereum treasury
companies and those kind of stuff?
Because I've actually got asked about that a couple of times in my gym here recently.
Like, oh, what do you think of this?
What do you think of, you know, XRP and all these other, you know, dog shit coins.
But people keep coming and asking me about them.
oh, what do you think of, you know, does this add more validity to Ethereum?
Should I buy this?
And I'm always, you know, obviously just Bitcoin only.
And I'm like, all right, if you want to dabble into MSTR or whatever, like that's fine.
But, you know, avoid the Ethereum treasury companies at all costs and all these other things.
But it seems like those are getting more notice to the altcoins,
which I don't know if that's like a positive for Bitcoin or a negative at the end of the day.
I mean look here's what I will tell you when it comes to when it comes to Wall Street they like
portfolios right because they make money through making things confusing so if you don't know what
to allocate to where that's when they come in and they can make a fee off of that so I guarantee you
that there is going to be a portfolio of quote-unquote cryptos right like because that's how
they make their money um the as far as like Tom Lee goes I think he's a genius I think he's seen
this opportunity and he's seen what's happening to strategy and he's gone, okay, well, if there's
going to be a portfolio based approach to crypto, well, then someone needs to create the number one
Ethereum treasury company. And he's gone and done that. And I think he's going to get extremely
wealthy off of the back of that. And I'm, you know, I don't know, but I'm pretty sure he's
going to take all of that wealth and buy Bitcoin with it. Yeah. So eventually all roads will lead
to Bitcoin and they'll bend the knee, you think? And, you know, that's just kind of, it's just the
short term little blip where all these guys are going to come in and, you know, go into all of
these different cryptos as Wall Street is going through that learning curve. Yeah, ultimately,
Wall Street doesn't mind losing money, right? Because losing money allows them to basically
like earn a fee and so they are going to make things confusing it's going to be bitcoin plus
plus plus plus plus whatever um and even if it's a shit idea they'll hold it up because it allows
them to make fees uh so that's that's happening the bitcoin a wet dream of you know all assets
basically collapse into bitcoin next year is not going to happen yeah so do you think that wall
street is is here already uh even though i mean because obviously we got the treasury companies
but i guess the narrative is that the etfs like 70 to 80 percent of the buying is retail allegedly
whether it's through you know the 401ks or all these other aspects now that you know you're
allowed to to buy the bitcoin through um and that these family offices these people who have you know
funds are not necessarily allowed to buy these ETFs or, you know, put it in the Bitcoin basket
of goods, so to speak, just yet. Do you see that as where we are right now?
I think that, by the way, I think you might be outdated on the ETF information. I think it's
actually now flipped to more institutional than retail. But I think that it's so tough to say.
Yes, I do think Wall Street is here. I think they're buying. I think they're accumulating,
but they're not buying in the way that retail buys. So you're not going to be able to see it.
It's going to be slow, grinding accumulation. And they're going to try and take as much Bitcoin as
they can, as I said, would happen. And people are just giving it up, which is what's even more
crazy. Like people are just literally just giving up their Bitcoin. Just think about that for a
second. Like these guys that dumped 80,000 coins, I don't know how many they have, right? But they
dumped 80,000 coins. Like how many Bitcoin do you think you need to have in order to feel confident
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All right, enough from me.
Let's get back to the show.
Yeah, I mean, you got to have at least
like a couple hundred thousand at this point, right?
I mean, you got to keep-
Even that sounds ridiculous.
Yeah.
So, yeah, I don't know.
But this is it will stop at some point.
Right.
There will there will be an exhaustion of selling.
It has last.
I want to be very clear.
It has lasted and been at a size that I'm very surprised by.
I thought it would have been over a lot sooner.
Yeah.
And, you know, and it's unique now, too, because of the products that we're seeing come online.
I mean, like Strike and all of these players are now offering, you know, Bitcoin backed loans where you don't need to sell.
So I'm kind of surprised that we are seeing the amount of selling going on right now.
Because most people are not used to financial engineering, right?
Like they don't understand how to manage a loan backed by Bitcoin.
And most of these people that are taking these loans, like, or that will take these loans, like retail, will end up screwing up their loan management.
And it will just be like they ended up selling their Bitcoin anyway.
yeah so i mean but but with that volatility and the amount of loans that we're seeing take
i mean it's still early right so i mean i don't know is that information public of how much how
much how many loans they're filling no i mean i haven't i haven't really seen it because all the
players that are doing it are are all private i believe i mean i don't know if we have like too
much public information about all that just yet yeah so i don't know what if there's no demand
yeah i mean i i would feel like there has to be some some demand that's why we've seen strike do
it but again you're talking about almost a two trillion dollar asset like what is some demand
if it's two billion dollars it doesn't do anything yeah and it also depends on what they're doing
with that bitcoin right like oh what they're doing with that loan because if they're just
taking that loan and going out and buying houses with it you're not going to see that
impacted on Bitcoin. But yeah, no, I've definitely been surprised at how much Bitcoin has been sold
for sure. Yeah. And is it? Yeah. Cause I mean, like, especially where, where we are, I guess,
like in this cycle. So, I mean, I, I definitely think we have like a long way to go. I'm curious
where, where you kind of see it going at this point. Do you think that we're going to be,
I guess, like grinding our way up through 26, it's going to be a little bit of a longer drawn
out cycle? Or do you think, you know, we're still going to get kind of the traditional four year
period that we've been seeing? Well, the two circumstances are drastically different,
right? On the one side, you've got this bed of buying orders that are in the markets that are
going to be grinding into the markets, especially as liquidity conditions improve, etc, etc.
And that could go all the way into some into 2026. And then retail could get super excited,
cause a blow off top. Secondly, you know, if you're trying to operate through traditional four year cycles,
which is basically the peak comes around 18 months after the halving, well, that's October, right?
That's October this time. So, and in order, remember, in order to have a long and sustained bear market, you need a drastic,
uh blow off top because markets are very symmetrical you want to remember that right
markets are very symmetrical so if you do not get a blow off top you are not going to get a deep bear
market and so that's the way i like to think about it and i don't know i i genuinely am confused at
what i'm seeing um you know people say okay so what if the u.s announces that you know they're
not doing a strategic reserve and that shocks the market it's like well we've just seen 80 000 coins
get dumped on in a matter of days and it dropped the price by three percent so you know 10 times
that 30 that's like a standard it's like a standard bear market so yeah i mean that's not even a bear
market rather that's a standard like correction in a bull market yeah like i don't even really think
that just because of you know what we're lining out and i mean the buying pressure too like i mean
if these uh you know if the us doesn't announce the strategic reserve if they say you know what
we're just going to keep the confiscated coins we're not going to buy for another three and a
half four years or whatever maybe not till the next presidential term i mean there's so much
buying pressure right now from at least like the treasury companies like sailor will will scoop up
those coins like i don't foresee that ever really you know causing that big of a correction i mean
maybe 30 like you said but i think the days of the 50 plus percent corrections are are maybe done
unless like you said we see the the massive blow off the top and then that's when you know we get
some hairiness in here but as it stands right now i kind of find it hard to believe that we're going
to see the massive drawdown underneath that 100k mark and you know we're going to be back in the
60s or something like that anytime soon yeah i don't i can't see it my my natural gut instinct
is that this market has changed i would much prefer it if we went up to like let's say 400
000 by october from here and then dumped back to exactly where we're at i would much prefer that
because with my background and experience,
I know how to monetize volatility.
So that's really powerful for me.
But I have a feeling that that's not going to happen.
Yeah, everybody's saying the slow grind up.
And I feel like when we hear that though,
it's always the opposite.
Once we get group-
Well, I was just going to say that.
Yeah.
The fact that everyone's now saying that
tells me that there's a potential
that we go up to $200,000 to $400,000
and then dump.
yeah and i mean hey everybody knows me i'm the moon boy over here dude i always think we're going
we're going and taking off so i wouldn't be surprised if we start to see that here in the
in the near future but british you're always a pleasure to have on i think this is like the third
or fourth time i've had you on in like a year at this point so recurring numbers are the numbers
always good or no of course people love it when we get together dude they absolutely love it so
So why don't you tell people who haven't seen you where they can find you and what else you got going on?
Yeah I mean you know go to YouTube type in British HODL and look for this face or on X as well British HODL And those are my only two platforms
So YouTube and X.
What have I got going on?
I'm basically waiting to see what happens with this market right now.
That's basically it.
I've been actually planning out like, OK, you know, if this is a long drawn out grind up, then what am I going to do?
and if this is a blow-off top and then a massive correction into next year,
what am I going to do?
So that's what I've been thinking about.
I like to think about things before they actually happen.
So I thought about the whole treasury company thing.
I was pitched.
Look, one of the advantages of having a YouTube channel and an X account
or whatever is that you get some investment opportunities sometimes.
So I got pitched like 18 treasury companies in the pre-seed rounds and whatever,
and I basically chose Nakamoto.
So that was the only one that I did.
And as I was going through that process, I was like, OK, well, you know, what are the
what are the potentials of this, you know, of this industry of Bitcoin treasury companies?
And I came out with a plan and I executed that plan based on what I thought was going
to happen.
So I like to do things and rather I like to think through things before the market forces
me to think about them.
And that's what I feel is going on right now with a lot of people where the market has like forced them to think about what's going on with their treasury company portfolios and their positions.
And that's when you make the worst decisions. So think about it now.
Like everyone should be focusing on like, OK, so if this is a blow off top and a bear market, then what am I going to do?
if this is a slow grind up for the next eight years,
like what happened with gold after the ETF came out in 2004?
What am I going to do?
And start thinking about these things, right?
It's very important to start thinking about,
okay, if this happens, then what am I going to do?
If the other thing happens, what am I going to do?
And that's what I'm thinking about for my wealth.
Unfortunately, I don't have a guaranteed job
from a Bitcoin treasury company,
so I can't just rest on my laurels, Brandon.
I have to sit here and actually be an investor.
Well, I mean, I was going to say,
hey, dude, you got approached by 18,
so you might be the next Bitcoin influencer at this point.
It's so unlikely that I would take...
The problem is this, right?
If you take...
These people are getting very excited
about joining these boards and whatever, right?
I guarantee you there's going to be lawsuits flying.
I guarantee you there's going to be all these kinds of things
if this thing falls apart.
And, you know, you've got to be very, very careful with what advisory shares you take and what legal liabilities of all that is.
And most importantly, you want me to sell out for $250,000 a year?
Like, what are we talking about right now?
I made a commitment that when I started making videos, I, you know, I at least could make a video every day for eight years without taking a single penny.
And that's when I decided that I would do it.
It doesn't mean I won't make any money from YouTube or whatever.
And everyone knows, like if you follow me on X so far, all of them, all of the revenues
that I not monetized on YouTube all of the revenues that X forces you to take once you have a premium account basically get donated to the Clock Tower Foundation which supports active duty and past members
of the British Special Forces.
So that's really it.
I'm an investor.
I invest my capital, and I make decisions on that, and I'm a business owner.
I doubt I'm going to be taking a treasury company position.
But if I do, we can get on another stream and laugh about it.
Yeah, exactly.
We'll have to have you back on that.
The British huddle turned Bitcoin influencer of a treasury company.
They're going to love that, by the way.
If I sell out like all these other people, no one gets any flack for selling out.
If I sell out, oh, man, it's going to be ridiculous.
It's going to be 100%.
We're going to start to see some fireworks here.
So that next spot that we have on where you're going to be the Bitcoin influencer of this treasury company, that'll be absolute fireworks, man.
That'll be hilarious.
So, yeah, no, that's another reason why, you know, there's no incentive to actually do it.
And plus, like, you know, what creative shit can you do?
Like, think about it.
Like, outside of strategy, what are they doing?
They're ATMing a fucking stock.
the only one that might be able to generate some exciting things in my opinion is smarter web
company in the uk and meta planet right because they're at a point where they're growing fast
enough and they've got enough you know momentum behind them where they may be able to start
tapping into the fixed income markets in those countries and whatever else and we'll see whether
they manage to do that or not and by the way i invested in nakamoto that's running those things
So I'm covered, right?
Those are the ones that are exciting.
All these other ones.
And like I said, I will stand by it.
Unless Nakamoto and UTXO and David Bailey are running your Bitcoin treasury company,
investing in a Bitcoin influencer is going to be the single worst investment that those companies do.
yeah so if you invest in british hodl running a company he's already telling you he's gonna do a
bad job absolutely 100 100 it's gonna be terrible but here's the reason but you know the reason why
right like i'm not just saying that because they're shit they're not shit like the influencers
have the ability to do what they do but the real success is going to come from institutional capital
not from retail.
So you'll get your pumps and your dumps and whatever else.
But Bitcoin influencers don't have the ability to move the type of capital
that's going to make any significant impact for anyone who's holding long term.
Yeah.
No, I mean, I agree with you 100%.
I mean, we definitely got, you know, once the big players are in,
those are the people that are moving markets.
It's not...
Think about this.
Imagine we set up.
We zinn up and we set up a Bitcoin treasury company right And we at the point where we like okay we buying bitcoin now what can we do to expand our bitcoin purchasing and the brightest fucking idea that we
come up with is hiring a bitcoin influencer we're fucked like why should anyone want to invest in
our fucking company at that point well and then that guy or girl or whoever is usually probably
just putting in hey how can i do this like into chat gbt and trying to come up to emulate uh micro
strategy because a lot of them you know don't have the experience in uh the trad fi world as it stands
either they just put a microphone in front of their face and started blowing hot air i'm one of
them so i mean i i get it but yeah i mean you know it happens but uh it's it's interesting definitely
to see the kind of development of this whole space because it's just everything so new and now people
are trying to mix the you know the old uh traditional financial world with this new bitcoin
world and nobody seems to know what the hell is going on man i don't know it's just a lot of people
throwing darts at a board and trying to figure it out listen at the end of the day like i know
I'm telling you what's going on.
Retail is being, you know, manipulated like by TradFi, which is exactly what happens every single time.
And they're going to use whatever tools and tactics they have to secure as much Bitcoin in the TradFi markets as possible.
I've been saying this for three years.
This is nothing new.
Nothing new is happening here.
Just the wrapper of a Bitcoin treasury company is new.
outside of that there is nothing new going on except the number the number one thing that
everyone needs to pay attention to is that you can actually buy the underlying asset this happened
in the boot in in the dot-com bubble the difference was you couldn't buy a piece of the internet now
you can just buy bitcoin well what's you're saying that you tell everybody uh you know here
british huddle that we had max kaiser on this show show repeat for you that was fucking awesome by
the way you know why that was so awesome is because max is the first human i ever heard the
word bitcoin from when he had his rt show so the fact that he even like knows who british huddle is
is insane to me uh and the fact that he knows the saying is even more crazy to me but the fact is
is that ultimately brandon there's only three rules to bitcoin step number one you buy bitcoin
step number two shut the fuck up and step number three you get fabulously wealthy there we go we
We always love it.
So that'll be a great way to wrap it up.
Everybody go check out British Hottles channel.
He's a legend.
British, thanks so much for coming on.
And we got to have you on again.
I'm sure we'll have you on like once a quarter at this point
because it's always electric to have you on.
So thank you so much for your time.
And hey, shut the fuck up and buy Bitcoin, baby.
My pleasure.
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