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So, Ben, I got to ask you just straight up, man.

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How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?

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One Bitcoin.

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No, I'm just kidding.

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But you know, like, it really depends on...

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I'm going to explain everything about it,

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and we're going to go through all the math.

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How I came up with the numbers,

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how you can pull the numbers yourself.

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If your monthly expenses are $10,000,

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and you have 10 years to retirement,

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you need one Bitcoin.

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And you can see year over year how that works.

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Bitcoin is going to be the only tool for freedom in that world.

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Why do you think AI is going to recommend people

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put their money into it?

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What's up guys? 70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month, but 71% are not subscribed.

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So you're going to miss out on some of the great green candle content. So make sure that you're

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hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get notified every time

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I drop a video. All right, now let's get back into this great interview.

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Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man,

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the myth, the legend, Ben Sigmund in the house, who recently had a very interesting thread on how

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much Bitcoin you need to retire. And I had to bring him on because this thing caught my eye.

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So Ben, I got to ask you just straight up, man, how much Bitcoin do you need to retire?

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One Bitcoin. No, I'm just kidding. But you know, like, it really depends on how your expenses are.

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And we're going to go through all the math. I'm going to explain everything about it,

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how I came up with the numbers, how you can come up with the numbers yourself,

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what tools exist that I've built that are different from other tools,

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why they're different, how the math works behind everything.

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I just want to say thanks for having me, first of all.

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Excited to be here.

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Yeah, you know, it's funny that thread really picked up so fast.

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And, you know, sometimes I have a post that just hits it,

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the zeitgeist of something.

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And it's pretty cool.

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you know everyone got everyone got excited about this spreadsheet and so i thought we could spend

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some time going through it all and really seeing how it all works you know because it's something

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that really i think is on every bitcoiner's mind is like if bitcoin keeps appreciating forever

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well when can i stop working a job because i have an asset that's producing money

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you know and so so one big thing about the money printer and the way the money printing works is

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is that it's like,

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we have to think of the money printing

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as like a game of Plinko.

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You ever watch Prices, right?

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Yeah.

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And there's that game Plinko,

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they drop like this big chip

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and it ends up in a bucket at the bottom.

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You've got to try to win a prize.

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You're trying to drop it

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in one of those buckets at the bottom.

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Well, all the assets in the world,

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which is basically real estate,

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stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin.

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those are the biggest they're all at the bottom of this giant pyramid and all the money in the

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world is trickling down into these assets the bottom you're spending money on your rent your

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car your food and all this stuff and of course all the less expenses you spend your money on

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the way down the more you can put into assets which grow in value versus shrinking in value

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like your your expenses cost you money but your assets can actually make you money

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And we explain all of that in our book. But that's kind of the basis of this calculator as well, because really the question of when can you retire really depends on how little you spend.

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Now, you use an interesting price model because obviously it looks at the appreciation, so to speak, of Bitcoin, at least in fiat terms, you know, and obviously expenses and other things play a role in that.

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but you use an interesting model.

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And why don't you break down a little bit of that

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and how you're looking at price projections into the future?

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Because I have a little wrinkle in all of this

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that I want to bring up, but I want to hear your thoughts.

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Okay, good.

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I'm excited to hear the wrinkle.

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And I think the best way for me to describe it

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is to show your chart, okay?

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So I'm going to share my screen here.

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And I want to show you the PowerLaw chart

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and talk about this power law for a second.

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So this is on the site B1M.io.

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This is a model of the price of Bitcoin's growth over time.

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And it's called a log log.

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We can switch to a linear log here.

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But it's essentially, it starts off exponential

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and then slows down over time.

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And this is the way that things in the natural environment

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with natural limits, how they change and grow.

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And I think because Bitcoin has the halvings

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and also has the difficulty adjustment,

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it functions more like a natural, like it functions more like something in the natural

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world rather than something artificial like fiat money.

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And so what we're seeing here is today, the power law model price is like, I don't know,

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109.

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Yeah, it's 108 right now.

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And the current price is 114.

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But according to the power law, it could be anywhere between 54 and 326.

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But this line, if you took the data from the first year of math here from 2012 to 2013, you'd get the same line, basically.

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It's almost the same exact line that we have today.

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So it's really a strange phenomenon, the way this Bitcoin price is changing over time.

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We can actually look at it into the future.

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So if I keep going up this line, what this line shows is that in 2030, let's look at January 2030, the power law model price is 383.

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But it could be as high as 1 million.

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And it could be as low as 191.

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So anywhere in that range is where the Bitcoin price will be.

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But if we just take the model price alone and we chart that out, that's part of the basis for how we're calculating the retirement calculation.

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So that's the core to it is this power law model that was discovered by this guy Giovanni Santostasi on Bitcoin Twitter.

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you know and he's an astrophysicist so he looks at data sets where the data is changing at really

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big rates you know like the growth of a star the growth of a star follows a power law a firework

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does not follow a power law fire a firework is unnatural it's it's a brief very brief explosion

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that happens but uses up all its fuel and it goes away a star slows down as its fuel starts to

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decrease and it extends the life of the star so the star grows really fast and then starts slowing

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down but it's still growing at an insane rate still burning insane amounts of energy and that's

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what bitcoin is doing and this guy giovanni discovered it a few years ago and then fred my

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my co-author on our book, like he found this through another friend and then popularized

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it massively.

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So that's the core to how we determine the price of Bitcoin in the future.

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Now, here's my wrinkle for you, Ben, is I think, you know, you described two different

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things, which I love, one of which is natural, right?

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The star that is, you know, I guess like slowly kind of extending its life.

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But the other is the firework where, you know, obviously it shoots off and then boom.

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And one of which is manmade, one of which is not.

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Obviously, fiat money, it's manmade.

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So I think that with Bitcoin, even though it has this natural logarithmic function, it is scarce.

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And we've never really seen an asset that is truly scarce that we can't just be like, okay, you know, maybe we could just build another house per se.

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issue more bonds per se, do these other things in the, I guess, natural state of things, right?

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It's just kind of artificially natural, so to speak. So I'm one to believe that maybe the power

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law is a little bearish, which would actually probably help your model a little bit more,

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where I think BlackRock's coming on, buying a bunch of Bitcoin, the ETFs inflows,

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We're having all of these treasury companies now coming on. And, you know, I think it's just Michael Saylor alone has bought like 45,000 Bitcoin in the past like month or so, which is like 100 days worth of supply.

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And so kind of these things that are somewhat natural with this logarithmic function cannot anticipate the amount of, you know, human, I guess, meddling, so to speak, coming into it with all of this capital sitting on the side.

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So I think that in my opinion, this power law, they're great for now.

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But as Jeff Booth says, all models are eventually going to be broken now.

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I'd love to hear your viewpoint on that.

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Well, I think a year ago, when we first were charting out the power law,

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I did my first spreadsheet on the power law, I think in March of last year.

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and it predicted the price was going to hit, you know, over a hundred thousand a year later.

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And at the time I was like, I don't know. I mean, that seems like it's, it's too quick.

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It's a hundred is going to like bounce right back down. But the thing is that as an asset

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appreciates in value, the volatility goes down a lot too. So it's very unlikely we see another 80%

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drop in Bitcoin price. And it's also very unlikely that we see an 80% gain in a very short

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timeframe because of this. The line of the power law represents something that is also present in

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psychology because it's actually way harder to hold Bitcoin when the price goes up really fast.

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I can tell you from experience. I've held Bitcoin since, some of the Bitcoin I've held since 2013.

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But I've sold so much over the years because I've sold, I mean, I've sold half of it a thousand dollars.

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Because when the price went up double again, I was like, oh, man, this is great.

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I doubled my money. That's a seriously good investment.

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And if you think of Bitcoin as an investment.

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That's the trick that you kind of get into because you're thinking about turning it back to cash.

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But the point of the retirement calculator is not.

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to try to figure out how much cash.

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You only need enough cash to survive.

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But realistically,

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we all need to get as much Bitcoin as we can

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and hold it for as long as we can.

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So at the end of the day,

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the only thing that matters is not the only thing.

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Of course, there's other things in life that matter.

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Family, having a home.

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I mean, there's great parts of life besides Bitcoin.

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But one of the most important things in life

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is getting as much Bitcoin as we can have and never selling it.

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And the way to do that is to borrow against it.

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So it just sort of turns out that Bitcoin is the best collateral in the world.

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Right?

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So if we think about how borrowing works and the types of collateral that they're on,

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the most borrowing in the world happens on real estate.

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Right?

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But the wealthy borrow against every type of asset.

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They'll borrow against their wine collection.

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They'll borrow against their art.

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They borrow against, you know, their stocks.

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They can borrow against their stocks.

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Elon Musk, when he was going to buy Twitter,

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needed to come up with something like $40 billion.

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Well, he just borrowed a bunch against his Tesla stock.

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And if he had sold his Tesla stock,

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he would have missed one of the greatest wealth gains in history

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because the stock, I think, tripled after that.

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So by not selling, he was able to, even at, even at high interest rates really leverages his asset.

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Now, I think that we never know exactly what's going to happen.

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There's always a lot of thought and doubt about Bitcoin.

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There's always going to be, it's not going to change.

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and I think that you know the the the power law is is less of a law it's more of a trend really

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is a way to think about it you know Matthew Mazinskas calls it the power trend which I really

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which I really like because calling it a law sounds like well it can never be broken but

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it's not so much of a how could I say this it's not so much of a price prediction as a measurement

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and it's a measurement of two things it's a measurement of the trajectory of the price

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and the volatility of the price so it can't really be broken is one thing and not like

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stock to flow is a broken model it's broken because it predicted prices that bitcoin did not reach

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but the power law represents a measurement of something fundamental

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to adoption of technology,

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to growth of things in the natural universe.

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And so we'll get back to the retirement calculator in a minute,

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but I think that,

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I think the more that you read about

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and understand the power law,

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it's going to make a lot more sense to you.

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You know, and I could spend an hour

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just going through the math of it

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and showing you how kind of that stuff works.

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I know we want to talk about the lending stuff

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or the retirement stuff.

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So stay focused on that.

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Yeah, you stole my thunder there with the lending stuff

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because I mean, I think that was a part that you mentioned

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that was very interesting, right?

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I mean, I think right now Bitcoin's looked at

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as the most pristine collateral.

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And part of the thread that caught my eye here was,

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you know, don't sell, you know, you can borrow against it.

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And part of it, you talked about the depreciating APR

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for Bitcoin lending and that collateral aspect.

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So I'd love to hear you kind of dive into that, how you think that fit in.

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Yeah, it's really interesting.

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You know, the way that lending works is that there's money out there that's looking to earn interest, right?

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Now, the banks take all of our money.

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They take our money.

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We put $100 in the bank.

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They keep 10 of it, and they loan out 90.

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And from that 90, they create something like $500 in interest.

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You know, pretty amazing.

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So they're just making money hand over foot from our money.

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And it's a, you know, it's, it's a very strange system that requires the money printer to be constantly printing new money.

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And a lot of that printing happens in the banks through the interest rates.

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So the more loans that there are, the more, the more money that gets, end up being created.

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And then, you know, the lower the rates that term, that makes the money.

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What if I told you you never had to sell your Bitcoin? Instead, you can borrow against it with

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SALT lending. Why give up your hard-earned Bitcoin when you can unlock its value without

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letting it go? With SALT, you get secure Bitcoin collateralized loans with no credit checks,

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no prepayment fees, and best of all, no rehypopulation. SALT has had zero customer

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collateral losses since it launched. SALT was the first platform to offer Bitcoin collateralized

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loans starting way back in 2016. Today they offer tailored options for both individuals

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and businesses. And now introducing Salt Shield, the no liquidation solution. No forced liquidations

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Salt Lending, secure, trusted, proven. The more money that gets,

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end up being created. And then, you know, the lower the rates that determine,

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that makes the money grow faster because the higher the rates it grows slower in general

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there's also things like stimmies that can happen that's huge you know the government printed i think

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it's like 40 of all us dollars in two years during the pandemic so they basically doubled the supply

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of dollars during that time which is why we had massive inflation now when

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When Bitcoin has, when basically, as soon as Bitcoin, as soon as the ETF happened,

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Bitcoin reached a new level of legitimacy.

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Because all of these retirement funds and sovereign wealth funds could now actually buy Bitcoin.

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I know they could have bought Bitcoin before on River or Coinbase or Swan or whatever,

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you know different custodians but it didn't have the same integration into their accounting systems

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and everything that bitcoin has now through the etf right or or mstr there's some place where you

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can't buy the etf so you can only buy mstr but these things came along and had a whole new level

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legitimacy to legitimacy to bitcoin and so now bitcoin's in a class of these other assets like

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bonds stocks real estate and gold that people absolutely do borrow against and so the rates

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that you can borrow at right now for bitcoin are somewhere in the eight to fifteen seventeen percent

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range right you know and most of the most of the lenders are are centralized lenders who have

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very big staffs very big compliance and legal staff and most of them are kind of like a glorified bank

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you have to give your bitcoin to them you trust them with your keys and then they will

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loan you money and holding your bitcoin as collateral and if the payments get missed or if

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the value of the loan relative to the value of the collateral becomes too high it will get liquidated

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they'll sell your bitcoin to pay off the loan right but what's amazing is imagine if that

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collateral were a house and they had to sell your house to pay off the loan well first they'd have

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to go inspect the house they'd have to stage the house they have to get it listed on the market

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they have to hire a realtor the realtor has to show the house we're talking about a multi-month

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process, even for a house is $100,000. Now apply the same logic to gold or stocks, some of them

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might be easier to sell than others. But nothing even comes close to selling $100,000 on Bitcoin

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anywhere in the world instantly. And that's why for lenders, Bitcoin's amazing collateral.

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The first thing that lenders are going to think about, though, is, well, it's very risky,

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because we would need to earn very high rates against Bitcoin

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because it's very volatile.

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But the historical volatility does not represent the future volatility

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because as the asset grows in value, it gets harder to move.

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Imagine a little boulder.

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You got a little boulder like this,

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you could throw it around pretty easily without a lot of force.

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That's the way Bitcoin was like at $100 million.

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dollars a hundred million dollars you know 10 20 000 could even move the needle a little bit here

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and there's a multiplier effect of price movement because of the there's only today there's only

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about six million bitcoin that's traded so only one third of all bitcoin is going to be traded

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right now and that's going to keep going down as more people hold it on a more permanent basis right

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So that causes the impact of incoming capital to have a higher impact on the price percentage-wise.

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But in general, because it takes so much more money to move a trillion dollar asset by 1% than a $100 million asset by 1%, the volatility is going to go down.

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And as the volatility goes down, the interest rates are going to go down.

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because Bitcoin is going to be seen as the best form of collateral.

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It's going to catch on.

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Like, this is something I am certain about.

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In 10 years, it will be widely recognized as the best form of collateral

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because it's 24-7 liquid.

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There's no jurisdictional limitations or requirements.

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You know, if you own a house somewhere,

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they could change a law in your city that affects the value of your home.

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Or the government can decide you didn't pay your tax or we need the water on your land.

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We're going to need to take your land.

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We'll offer you a fair price for it or not, whatever.

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You only own land in the US even at the grant of the US government.

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So Bitcoin is something you can actually own as well.

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So it's got all these properties that make it just absolutely amazing for lenders and for borrowers.

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And what makes it great for borrowers is the fact that it appreciates at an average of 40% per year.

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Now, with the 40% per year, though, explain the decaying a little bit deeper, though.

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Because with this model, this thread that you put together, you have the decay of about 2% and that the debt will grow yearly, but the CAGR will go down.

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So why did you pick that 2% number?

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Well, look, actually what I did was this.

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I said, here's the math for how I did the declining APR.

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Mm-hmm.

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Oh, one second.

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The declining APR is, is basically you have a starting APR.

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So if you see in my spreadsheet, there's a, you have to look at the screenshot of it,

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but there's a sort of beginning APR and then there's a terminal APR.

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And so we have to imagine that the APR begins at 15% and then it drops down to.

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Yeah.

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top there there's variables starting apr and then um you know a floor apr is what i called it on this

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thing but the idea is that the apr begins at 15 and goes down to one over 40 years

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and i do think interest rates are going to be going down towards zero in general

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they really will be um and and bitcoin bitcoin lending rates will also be going down towards

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zero because eventually 1% will be like amazing to earn for a lender. So that's the calculation.

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There's sort of a linear regression of the decay. So it goes down just a little bit every year. It

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doesn't go down 1% per year or 2% per year, but it goes down very smoothly. Now I could go down

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way faster than that, by the way, and that would make my math even better. So it's, I think it's

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pretty safe calculation right now another part of that calculation is it's called the um the safe

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ltv right so there's a zone for everyone who doesn't speak finance talk ltv is loan to value

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so when you get a loan there's some loan to value ratio of the value of your collateral to the amount

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that you owe so if you have you know if you have a hundred dollars of collateral and a fifty dollar

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loan, you have 50% LTV. So the safe LTV would be 25%. So if you have, let's say you have one

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Bitcoin and you borrow $25,000, right? If your yearly expenses are $25,000, this is how the

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calculator essentially works. Let's assume your yearly expenses are 25,000. You have one Bitcoin

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today, you borrow $25,000. Great. Now, next year, you need another $25,000 plus inflation. So there's

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some inflation number on my chart too. That says you can set it. What's the inflation rate for you?

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Is it 5%? Is it 7? Is it 10? I don't know. It depends where you live in the world.

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And depends what your sort of status in society is. If you are in the top 1%, you're going to be

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experiencing a much higher inflation rate than people that are low down. Because the things that

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you want to spend money on are going up in value way faster. You know, if you want to buy a Ferrari,

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it's going up at 16% a year, right? But if you, if you live in your mom's basement,

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the price of pizza is only going up like 4%. So, um, so you have very different,

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depending on what you want, the inflation is going to change you differently, but you take

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these things together and you have, and your expenses go up every year based on that inflation

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rate. And that's how you sort of calculate where do I need to be in how much Bitcoin I have based

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on Bitcoin's price going up, the cost of the loans going down, the cost of my expenses going up.

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But we have these different, different things, different things, pulling vectors, pulling

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different directions. And that's sort of the basis of how you, and then the number that really

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matters is how much cushion you have.

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So after your expenses, your debt on your, the cost of your debt on your loans

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that keep stacking year over year, how much cushion do you have?

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And it's interesting.

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You start out, if you retired today, you'd start out with a bigger cushion.

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It goes down a little bit towards 2030.

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And the calculator on the calculator on the web that I made, which let me,

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let me show you really quickly the calculator on the web, because I think it's

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really so simple the way this web calculator works.

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you go to b1m and click on this calculator if your monthly expenses are 10 000 and you have 10 years

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to retirement you need one bitcoin and you can see year over year how that works on this chart

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but you can also go in your advanced settings and choose a different starting apr floor apr safe ltv

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so that's that that's at an ltv of of 30. an ltv of 25 you need 1.29 bitcoin so if you retire in

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10 years and your monthly expenses are 10 000 then what happens is you have your yearly expense

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of 10 000 goes up by um seven percent inflation yearly which i think is a reasonable inflation

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right and you can see here at 2044 there would be one year with zero cushion but your cushion

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starts out pretty high 300k 200k and then it goes up again later

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so so that's kind of that's the that's the quick and dirty explanation of

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the power law lending yeah i mean i think it's it's interesting because you you brought in a

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couple different elements in here right and and part of it is the lending aspect and getting the

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APR down? Because I think a lot of people neglect that, especially with these other retirement

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calculators or people who are talking about Bitcoin and retirement in general. So when you're

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looking at this, I guess just kind of explain why you decided this lending aspect of it as well,

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just from kind of comparatively, there isn't a lot of models out there that account for that.

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And, you know, I mean, I think a lot of Bitcoiners saw potentially, you know, when Mark Zuckerberg was looking to buy his giant mansion at one point in time, he was able to get a mortgage of like basically 0%.

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So he would be dumb to not go all in on that.

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So do you think that this would essentially change the shift of, you know, how Bitcoiners are looked at just because, you know, one, as Bitcoin's price appreciation, they're going to be more wealthy.

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Thus, having this pristine collateral that essentially can be liquidated at the snap of a finger if necessary, would just make the Bitcoiners some sort of elite class at this point.

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Man, it's really, I think to answer your question, one thing I want to address here is that one of my core beliefs about Bitcoin is that it's not just about number go up.

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But because Bitcoin is the only asset that's not controlled by anyone that we can transfer completely peer to peer, it is ultimately going to be an important tool for freedom in the future.

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Because in a way, where we're heading to is going to be very different from where we are today.

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I think this was the last normal year.

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This year was the last normal year.

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The future is not going to look normal.

364
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You know, we're heading towards a world where we combine with robots.

365
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It's inevitable.

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This bull run, you should focus on getting your Bitcoin in self-custody and off exchanges.

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We saw what happened last time.

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You saw FTX, Celsius, BlockFi all blow up.

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But the one thing that stayed true was Bitcoin in self-custody.

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This is why this bull run, I'm trusting Trezor, the longest standing hardware wallet in the game to store my Bitcoin.

371
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Not only are they trusted for 10 years, but they have the slickest new hardware wallet that they just released, the Trezor Safe7.

372
00:30:28,661 --> 00:30:31,301
You've heard the FUD about potential quantum computing.

373
00:30:31,741 --> 00:30:35,641
Well, the Trezor Safe7 has the first audible secure element.

374
00:30:35,641 --> 00:30:41,261
No other hardware wallet on the market has this currently, so this is why I am trusting Trezor.

375
00:30:41,641 --> 00:30:46,841
You can go to the affiliate link down in the show notes or to trezor.io to go get yours today

376
00:30:46,841 --> 00:30:49,641
because you need to be getting your Bitcoin off exchange

377
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and really taking the power of Bitcoin

378
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and taking your Bitcoin off exchanges into self-custody.

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All right, enough from me.

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Let's get back into the show.

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Normal.

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You know, we're heading towards a world

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where we combine with robots.

384
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It's inevitable.

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And also robots are going to run everything.

386
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So AI and robots are going to run our entire society.

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We're going to live in sort of a communist run,

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run communism run by robots you know because jobs are going to be

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everyone's jobs are going to be replaced by by ai and by robots okay so in that future we end up

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having to have government stimulus the printing is going to go crazy and um they're going to be

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handing out ubi payments essentially to everyone that's going to be part of the government's job

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But in that system, if you send money to the wrong person who's doing something the government doesn't like, for example, they will freeze your account without question.

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And so in a world where we're living in this giant autocracy, which is part of its job is to maintain its power and make sure there's no dissidence, where they can limit our spending, like Bitcoin is going to be the only tool for freedom in that world.

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and I'm guessing there will be some region of the world that will that will remain free longer

395
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and so so I'm at the core I believe that bitcoin's about more than just number go up

396
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but right now we do live in a society where we have to we have to work and we have to earn money

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to pay for things in our lives and right now what's attractive about bitcoin to most people

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is that it goes up in value every year that the thing that people are very Most people work for a living to earn money to pay for things that they want and to buy assets Right So the idea that they could put their money into Bitcoin and it grows faster than other assets is very appealing

399
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And historically it does. So why do people want Bitcoin? Most people want Bitcoin because it goes up an average of 40 percent per year.

400
00:33:01,302 --> 00:33:17,702
but but um i lost my trade of thought on this one but you know um it still feels like a very

401
00:33:17,702 --> 00:33:23,742
risky investment for most people because of the huge drawdowns that can happen but if you have a

402
00:33:23,742 --> 00:33:29,802
long time preference if you do not spend a lot of money and you can buy bitcoin and hold it for 10

403
00:33:29,802 --> 00:33:36,602
years, even five, even three to five years, it's going to be, it's going to continue to

404
00:33:36,602 --> 00:33:42,822
appreciate at record numbers, even slowing down over time as the power law shows.

405
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And what you want to do is not sell your Bitcoin. So when expenses do come up for rent, mortgage,

406
00:33:53,562 --> 00:34:00,722
car payments, all these things. Why would you sell your Bitcoin when it's your best appreciating

407
00:34:00,722 --> 00:34:07,702
asset? And it's an important key to your future generations of being able to have some form of

408
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freedom in a world that's run by robots. Pretty weird because you think that some digital money

409
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would be somehow controlled by robots in the future, but it won't be. Very unlikely will not be.

410
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so so bitcoin has this unique role and it's so important to not sell it that you really have to

411
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figure out how to best borrow against it and in my opinion what you want to do is is try to use a

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decentralized lending protocol and i've actually built one of these so i know what it's like

413
00:34:41,302 --> 00:34:46,422
but there's there's like really only two or three decentralized protocols for lending

414
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trusting our keys to coinbase kraken

415
00:34:51,522 --> 00:35:01,762
unchained you know strike is basically just using a bank it's it's sort of using the same system

416
00:35:01,762 --> 00:35:11,102
that bitcoin was meant to replace right whereas if you have a smart contract technology version

417
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of that where you can still use native Bitcoin, not wrapping Bitcoin, but you can still use native

418
00:35:17,202 --> 00:35:24,142
Bitcoin to get a loan. It's very good. So that's what I, that's why I recommend people go and try

419
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and learn about even with a small, very small amount of their stack, you know, take, take 10%

420
00:35:29,502 --> 00:35:36,342
of your money, go and try borrowing, see what it's like, you know, learn about how to do it,

421
00:35:36,422 --> 00:35:40,222
learn about the pros and cons, learn about where your keys are. How are this, how is it secured?

422
00:35:40,222 --> 00:35:45,902
if you can't understand the answer that stuff you should not use whatever platform it is if you can't

423
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see your bitcoin in its own address you should not use whatever platform it is because things like

424
00:35:52,061 --> 00:35:59,822
celsius and block five were were big lessons yeah i think i didn't have any money on those then but

425
00:35:59,822 --> 00:36:04,782
i know people that had a lot of money on those and some of them ended up losing money even though they

426
00:36:04,782 --> 00:36:09,982
got it off because they saw the warning signs they didn't take it off before this certain like um

427
00:36:10,222 --> 00:36:16,702
period where they the government came and took their bitcoin from them essentially said hey you

428
00:36:16,702 --> 00:36:20,862
actually need to give us some of that money back that you had on there because you pulled out within

429
00:36:20,862 --> 00:36:26,222
this time frame when it crashed where we need some of that money back to pay off people who lost

430
00:36:26,222 --> 00:36:32,302
money it's crazy so so that's that's kind of the rules of of lending you want to borrow against

431
00:36:32,302 --> 00:36:37,422
your bitcoin but you don't want to do it in a place that's very complicated or where you um

432
00:36:37,422 --> 00:36:44,202
can't see the Bitcoin in its own address and you can't explain how it works.

433
00:36:45,342 --> 00:36:47,561
And you don't want to do, you also don't want to do, I mean,

434
00:36:49,702 --> 00:36:53,002
you know, you don't want to do something that's, that's at a bank,

435
00:36:53,162 --> 00:36:59,142
that the government or, or some power out there could seize or hack a centralized entity.

436
00:37:00,142 --> 00:37:03,362
You know, there's different levels of risk, whichever protocol you choose.

437
00:37:03,502 --> 00:37:04,922
On one side, you have to trust software.

438
00:37:04,922 --> 00:37:11,002
on the other side you have to trust people but i think ultimately we're going to have to learn to

439
00:37:11,002 --> 00:37:17,862
build and trust software to be able to survive in a world where software runs everything

440
00:37:17,862 --> 00:37:24,041
you know yeah now this is this is interesting right because um you know obviously you've got

441
00:37:24,041 --> 00:37:29,842
the the power law aspect of this whole model and you know kind of the depreciating apr

442
00:37:29,842 --> 00:37:32,382
which would lower the volatility.

443
00:37:32,682 --> 00:37:36,222
But I don't know, man, when you're talking about freezing bank accounts

444
00:37:36,222 --> 00:37:38,682
and with things that have actually happened,

445
00:37:39,022 --> 00:37:42,602
I feel like with a truly decentralized protocol with Bitcoin,

446
00:37:42,722 --> 00:37:46,382
the more people kind of catch on, it's going to be an exponential growth.

447
00:37:47,322 --> 00:37:53,142
So I think these kind of colliding powers are going to be very interesting to play out.

448
00:37:53,282 --> 00:37:57,262
And I mean, I'm kind of, like I said a little earlier,

449
00:37:57,262 --> 00:38:02,142
like with this exponential growth and exponential adoption do you think that you know with the

450
00:38:02,142 --> 00:38:08,702
potential of this big print like laurence lapart is coming uh talking about uh and potential bigger

451
00:38:08,702 --> 00:38:13,502
inflation numbers people are losing more faith in the dollar so they're going to be flocking to an

452
00:38:13,502 --> 00:38:19,742
asset like bitcoin and granted i still think majority of people just don't understand uh but

453
00:38:19,742 --> 00:38:23,581
when they start to catch on i think that's when things are going to get really interesting and

454
00:38:23,581 --> 00:38:31,822
And, you know, not only this retirement calculator kind of makes it, I think it puts it into light, at least for me, like, all right.

455
00:38:31,822 --> 00:38:50,922
You know, if you look at the general retirement account portfolios on average for somebody in the United States, like 401k balances, somebody, I believe from the age of like 25 ish to 35 is around 60 to $80,000 right now.

456
00:38:50,922 --> 00:38:55,922
And then, you know, when you get to that 35 to 45, it's like 160.

457
00:38:56,242 --> 00:38:57,622
Like, I don't know, it's more than doubled.

458
00:38:58,422 --> 00:39:11,882
So, you know, if you look at it in that perspective, it's like, all right, well, it kind of changes the mindset of not only when can I retire, but the mindset of money where it's not this never ending rat race.

459
00:39:11,882 --> 00:39:22,282
So that's where I think once we start to have some people really open their eyes to that, like, all right, it doesn't have to be the same way that we've been accustomed to our entire lives.

460
00:39:22,282 --> 00:39:30,322
We could, you know, go travel in our 30s or 20s or whatever, as long as we start stacking aggressively for a few years.

461
00:39:31,162 --> 00:39:35,022
And that shift, I think, would just kind of cause some rapid adoption.

462
00:39:35,022 --> 00:39:40,182
um so would that throw a wrench in the model or do you think those are just all kind of variables

463
00:39:40,182 --> 00:39:49,541
that that can be accounted for the model ultimately the model ultimately resent represents a line

464
00:39:49,541 --> 00:39:57,522
so back to the power law the there's a model price line we're above that price line right now

465
00:39:57,522 --> 00:40:02,942
but that doesn't mean the model is broken because there's all of all the model represents is a

466
00:40:02,942 --> 00:40:15,242
statistical probability. And the bands that are the 2x or 3x or 4x bands that show how high Bitcoin

467
00:40:15,242 --> 00:40:23,462
could go in a cycle or in no cycle, we might not be in any cycle at all. We might be in a super

468
00:40:23,462 --> 00:40:30,561
cycle now. So if the price does not, if the price appreciates very rapidly, it's going to come down

469
00:40:30,561 --> 00:40:38,382
very rapidly. That's almost a guarantee. And that's why that model line works kind of like gravity.

470
00:40:38,962 --> 00:40:43,922
So I'm not saying that Bitcoin price couldn't go to $400,000 this year. It could. And on the

471
00:40:43,922 --> 00:40:49,602
website, b1m.io, if you tap four times in the header, you can go into Josh Mandel mode.

472
00:40:51,982 --> 00:40:58,142
And it's a 4X trend. So you can see the 4X trend line. And the model would still not be broken

473
00:40:58,142 --> 00:41:07,302
Because ultimately, even if it goes up to 444 next month, which it could, Bitcoin could skyrocket because of these things.

474
00:41:08,242 --> 00:41:09,422
Some people will sell.

475
00:41:10,482 --> 00:41:12,222
Some people will sell at least some of their Bitcoin.

476
00:41:12,602 --> 00:41:13,482
A lot of people sell.

477
00:41:13,642 --> 00:41:16,262
If the price went to 444, a lot of people would sell.

478
00:41:16,902 --> 00:41:20,541
And price would come back down to around $120,000 probably.

479
00:41:21,462 --> 00:41:22,802
I mean, maybe it'll go lower.

480
00:41:22,882 --> 00:41:25,942
It could even go way lower than that and then come back up again.

481
00:41:25,942 --> 00:41:27,902
And the model would still be good.

482
00:41:28,142 --> 00:41:32,182
because ultimately, if you look at the price history and how it goes around this line,

483
00:41:32,902 --> 00:41:39,002
it's bouncing all over the place. But what happens is over time, that volatility is going down. So

484
00:41:39,002 --> 00:41:44,102
it seems very unlikely to me that we're going to see a 4x in Bitcoin this year.

485
00:41:44,822 --> 00:41:50,561
But the gains are still so impressive year over year. And they're going to continue to be

486
00:41:50,561 --> 00:41:56,662
so impressive year over year. You really, Brandon, we really don't want, honestly,

487
00:41:56,662 --> 00:42:03,782
We really don't want huge gains in one year on Bitcoin because that will make it way harder for people to hold Bitcoin.

488
00:42:05,081 --> 00:42:12,162
And what we really want is a slow but steady and faster than everything else appreciation year over year.

489
00:42:12,722 --> 00:42:14,122
That's very good.

490
00:42:15,422 --> 00:42:17,162
And I do believe that's where we are.

491
00:42:18,442 --> 00:42:26,402
Yeah, it's interesting because I think the narrative of this cycle is institutions starting to come on, right?

492
00:42:26,402 --> 00:42:29,122
These Bitcoin treasury companies are starting to buy.

493
00:42:29,702 --> 00:42:32,822
And these are the guys that are not really selling, right?

494
00:42:32,902 --> 00:42:34,462
I mean, they're coming in, scooping up.

495
00:42:34,642 --> 00:42:36,462
They have some sort of long-term strategy.

496
00:42:36,622 --> 00:42:40,541
So unless the company goes belly up, it doesn't seem like they're going to be selling them.

497
00:42:40,742 --> 00:42:44,242
Of course, Michael Saylor said he's taken his Bitcoin to the grave.

498
00:42:44,642 --> 00:42:47,622
And then we also have potentially some governments starting to come in.

499
00:42:47,722 --> 00:42:50,782
And, you know, with governments, everything is just very slow moving.

500
00:42:51,202 --> 00:42:54,622
So how does this, I guess, behavior start to play out?

501
00:42:54,622 --> 00:42:56,682
is in just your opinion,

502
00:42:57,041 --> 00:42:59,282
do you think that it's just going to kind of weed out

503
00:42:59,282 --> 00:43:01,581
some of the big whales who have maybe gotten in?

504
00:43:01,581 --> 00:43:04,162
They want to just sell their Bitcoin,

505
00:43:04,302 --> 00:43:08,081
go sip a pina colada and live on an island somewhere

506
00:43:08,081 --> 00:43:10,462
and kind of enjoy the fruits of their labor.

507
00:43:10,662 --> 00:43:13,642
And then that's when money just starts to circulate.

508
00:43:13,782 --> 00:43:15,502
Is that kind of how you see it playing out?

509
00:43:15,822 --> 00:43:19,222
This bull run, I'm looking for ways to stack Bitcoin in my sleep

510
00:43:19,222 --> 00:43:21,422
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511
00:43:21,422 --> 00:43:26,782
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512
00:43:27,142 --> 00:43:33,242
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513
00:43:33,541 --> 00:43:37,561
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514
00:43:38,282 --> 00:43:45,662
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515
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516
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517
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518
00:43:54,561 --> 00:43:58,402
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519
00:43:58,402 --> 00:44:00,061
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520
00:44:00,061 --> 00:44:02,842
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521
00:44:02,842 --> 00:44:05,782
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522
00:44:06,061 --> 00:44:07,322
All right, enough from me.

523
00:44:07,502 --> 00:44:08,602
Let's get back to the show.

524
00:44:09,002 --> 00:44:10,262
Live on an island somewhere

525
00:44:10,262 --> 00:44:12,622
and kind of enjoy the fruits of their labor.

526
00:44:12,622 --> 00:44:15,802
And then, you know, that's when money just starts to circulate.

527
00:44:15,902 --> 00:44:17,682
Is that kind of how you see it playing out?

528
00:44:17,682 --> 00:44:26,602
Well, I think what happens is that, you know, over time, there's all these different factors at play, right?

529
00:44:26,742 --> 00:44:31,462
Like what you're correctly identifying in this, in our time together, even talking is a few things.

530
00:44:33,061 --> 00:44:35,922
One thing is sort of government institutional adoption.

531
00:44:36,422 --> 00:44:41,282
Another thing is the growth of the money supply over time.

532
00:44:41,282 --> 00:44:52,482
And then we also have how moving into a multipolar world where the U.S. is not the hegemon and people don't trust the dollar anymore, how that's going to affect things.

533
00:44:53,002 --> 00:44:56,202
There's also what I mentioned with AI and UBI coming.

534
00:44:57,942 --> 00:45:05,041
Right. And so all of these factors are all part of Bitcoin's future trajectory to one million dollars and beyond.

535
00:45:05,041 --> 00:45:11,242
and there's going to be forces pulling both directions very easy to see all the things that

536
00:45:11,242 --> 00:45:15,622
can go right but it's very hard to see all the things that can go wrong unless you're my wife

537
00:45:15,622 --> 00:45:21,002
she's really good at seeing that stuff all the time like she has like a psychic ability

538
00:45:21,002 --> 00:45:26,442
to predict things that can go wrong even things that are really remote i remember one time she

539
00:45:26,442 --> 00:45:30,822
told me i was like let's go to the neighbor's place while the baby's sleeping and go let's go

540
00:45:30,822 --> 00:45:35,061
drink with our neighbor and she's like i can't leave because what if there was an earthquake

541
00:45:35,061 --> 00:45:41,302
and i couldn't get back into the to our place like and i was like what if there's an earthquake

542
00:45:41,302 --> 00:45:45,702
anything it's like a meteor hitting or something you know but like there's still some statistical

543
00:45:45,702 --> 00:45:51,462
probability it could happen now with bitcoin there's some statistical statistical probability

544
00:45:51,462 --> 00:45:56,982
that quantum will come along and break the whole thing or that satoshi will wake up and move his

545
00:45:56,982 --> 00:46:06,402
coins or the max supply might change, you know, or, or maybe, maybe Bitcoin core version 30 will

546
00:46:06,402 --> 00:46:12,002
cause a death, a bit, whatever. Like there's so much FUD all the time. And there's some statistical

547
00:46:12,002 --> 00:46:18,642
probability of these things potentially happening, but it seems very unlikely to me. Right. So we

548
00:46:18,642 --> 00:46:26,602
have all these different forces weighing in and playing on Bitcoin. Now, how much of a role does

549
00:46:26,602 --> 00:46:32,982
this government adoption or institutional adoption play into Bitcoin, right? It's very hard to say,

550
00:46:33,061 --> 00:46:36,862
like the U.S. government, excuse me, the U.S. government was supposed to have some kind of

551
00:46:36,862 --> 00:46:41,702
strategic reserve this year, which is the talk of the election in my mind. I mean, I don't know,

552
00:46:41,762 --> 00:46:45,602
my world, that's all people want to talk about is the Bitcoin strategic reserve. That's all I

553
00:46:45,602 --> 00:46:54,222
heard about for literally six months from June until January. And, you know, then we had David

554
00:46:54,222 --> 00:47:01,822
sacks coming in and and what happened with the strategic reserve literally nothing in fact what

555
00:47:01,822 --> 00:47:08,061
trump said at some point he wants to have a reserve of ripple i mean like it was like he started

556
00:47:08,061 --> 00:47:14,382
naming all these other coins like it was very strange it was definitely not a bitcoin strategic

557
00:47:14,382 --> 00:47:20,382
reserve that he was thinking about at all now the big now the thing is of course the us government

558
00:47:20,382 --> 00:47:22,561
is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world already

559
00:47:22,561 --> 00:47:25,182
because of the seizures that they've made over the years.

560
00:47:27,262 --> 00:47:32,942
Right now, I think the first sovereign wealth fund was just last week.

561
00:47:33,041 --> 00:47:34,541
It was, I think it was Lichtenstein.

562
00:47:35,142 --> 00:47:36,422
It was Luxembourg.

563
00:47:36,682 --> 00:47:37,122
Luxembourg.

564
00:47:37,202 --> 00:47:38,722
I always get those two confused, honestly,

565
00:47:38,802 --> 00:47:41,502
because they're both really little countries attached to France, basically.

566
00:47:41,742 --> 00:47:45,581
But Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund is going to be allocating 1%.

567
00:47:45,581 --> 00:47:52,581
So now if we think about the amount of money in these sovereign wealth funds and pension funds and.

568
00:47:56,982 --> 00:48:02,442
Fidelity, you know, for example, when they start allocating, not if, but when.

569
00:48:05,802 --> 00:48:06,942
It's a lot of money.

570
00:48:08,182 --> 00:48:10,402
It's a lot of money. It's going to affect things massively.

571
00:48:10,402 --> 00:48:16,842
you know um i don't know the exact number of other than the pension funds offhand but

572
00:48:16,842 --> 00:48:24,622
a one percent allocation from any of these things based on my math writing this book is that any of

573
00:48:24,622 --> 00:48:30,061
those things will get us to a million dollars just one percent from any of those alone will

574
00:48:30,061 --> 00:48:40,041
get us to a million dollars in 10 years and so um you know i think we're going to go beyond a

575
00:48:40,041 --> 00:48:43,702
million dollars in 10 years, honestly, but, but there's, there's, it's very

576
00:48:43,702 --> 00:48:46,021
hard to estimate the, the negative factors.

577
00:48:46,021 --> 00:48:46,362
Right.

578
00:48:46,842 --> 00:48:48,682
And all of these things are definitely at play.

579
00:48:49,842 --> 00:48:50,382
Exactly.

580
00:48:50,382 --> 00:48:53,202
Like I love you have such a great picture of everything.

581
00:48:54,202 --> 00:48:58,962
And, um, I think it's, it takes a lot of work to get to that point, man.

582
00:48:58,962 --> 00:49:08,182
So good job Like really understand a lot of this stuff that has taken me I don know 10 years to get really down

583
00:49:09,362 --> 00:49:14,323
I've just spent so much time researching Bitcoin and Satoshi and thinking about math and macroeconomics.

584
00:49:14,502 --> 00:49:15,622
It's literally all we do here.

585
00:49:16,162 --> 00:49:17,942
We just moved offices, so things are kind of crazy.

586
00:49:17,942 --> 00:49:34,002
But yeah, I think, you know, in regards to the multipolar world concept, that's also one most interesting things to think about in the future is how the government is going to react to Bitcoin.

587
00:49:35,142 --> 00:49:41,402
Yeah. And that's where I mean, to me, right, I don't have like a big economics training background.

588
00:49:41,402 --> 00:49:44,402
Everything I've kind of learned is more self-taught.

589
00:49:44,402 --> 00:49:52,302
And I think what kind of triggered it for me was just seeing like the GME, the GameStop craze in 2020.

590
00:49:52,662 --> 00:49:59,622
Because prior to that, I was reading books like The Intelligent Investor and reading a lot of Warren Buffett.

591
00:50:00,563 --> 00:50:03,642
Why were you interested in those topics?

592
00:50:04,802 --> 00:50:10,063
Because, well, one, I was in engineering and I was in grad school.

593
00:50:10,262 --> 00:50:13,362
I realized, hey, I've been a broke college student my entire life.

594
00:50:13,362 --> 00:50:16,523
If now I'm going to actually start making some decent money, I should figure out what

595
00:50:16,523 --> 00:50:17,162
to do with it.

596
00:50:17,563 --> 00:50:23,502
So part of my orange pill story is I listened to Preston Pish's podcast, We Study Billionaires.

597
00:50:23,742 --> 00:50:28,482
And he really opened my eyes on, hey, I'm looking at the evaluations of these companies

598
00:50:28,482 --> 00:50:32,582
and nothing really seems like a good investment.

599
00:50:32,582 --> 00:50:37,702
If you go and look at the way Warren Buffett describes the PE ratios back in the day and

600
00:50:37,702 --> 00:50:42,502
all of these different things, he was able to find those, I guess, holes in the market

601
00:50:42,502 --> 00:50:48,162
and able to buy in early and make a bunch of money based on that.

602
00:50:48,622 --> 00:50:54,122
And then by the time I actually graduated and I started making somewhat of money,

603
00:50:54,342 --> 00:51:01,162
I graduated December 2018, so I really had one year and a couple months before 2020

604
00:51:01,162 --> 00:51:03,222
when things just got really crazy.

605
00:51:03,782 --> 00:51:07,462
So everything that I was learning up to that point was like, okay, this makes sense,

606
00:51:07,502 --> 00:51:08,322
this makes sense.

607
00:51:08,322 --> 00:51:10,902
And then something just sparked.

608
00:51:10,902 --> 00:51:14,442
And I mean, obviously, Preston orange pilled me a little bit before that.

609
00:51:14,582 --> 00:51:15,882
So I had Bitcoin prior.

610
00:51:16,662 --> 00:51:32,602
But, you know, that craze just made me realize, OK, you know, when we see a lot of this adoption and when people see holes in the market with the amount of money that just keeps getting dumped in and the volatility and the markets are just getting way more extreme.

611
00:51:32,602 --> 00:51:48,882
So that's where I think, you know, as we see these, and it makes me a little bit more skeptical, I'd say, on like the models, just because as we see more players come in, bigger money come in, you know, before I thought the stock market could be a little bit more explained.

612
00:51:48,882 --> 00:51:52,523
And then I realized, hey, everything's kind of manipulated at the end of the day.

613
00:51:53,302 --> 00:52:12,762
And Bitcoin being that only truly decentralized asset and having the true fixed supply, you know, where it is verifiable, unlike gold, where, you know, you could have the paper gold and all of these other assets where, all right, you know, we have real estate, but we could just build up or we could just.

614
00:52:12,942 --> 00:52:13,222
We will.

615
00:52:13,742 --> 00:52:14,063
Yeah.

616
00:52:14,422 --> 00:52:14,563
Right.

617
00:52:14,563 --> 00:52:15,262
And we will.

618
00:52:15,502 --> 00:52:16,422
You know, but we're not.

619
00:52:16,802 --> 00:52:17,722
You know, it's interesting.

620
00:52:17,722 --> 00:52:22,602
just want to interject one thing here no go ahead that this morning a friend of mine sent me this like

621
00:52:24,043 --> 00:52:30,762
video of that app that you take a picture of legos have you seen that no okay so basically

622
00:52:32,762 --> 00:52:37,962
legos you know these little building pieces you end up with like a bag full of them that are all

623
00:52:37,962 --> 00:52:44,043
mismatched ultimately you have legos unless you're an anal lego builder if you're like a normal person

624
00:52:44,043 --> 00:52:46,822
And you end up with a bunch of Legos with this app.

625
00:52:46,822 --> 00:52:51,862
You can take a picture of those Legos and that then AI tells you what you can

626
00:52:51,862 --> 00:52:53,543
build from that mess.

627
00:52:54,563 --> 00:52:59,102
Now apply that same idea to a bunch of rubble on the street.

628
00:53:01,282 --> 00:53:03,043
That's what robots are going to be able to do.

629
00:53:03,962 --> 00:53:07,242
They're going to be able to reconstruct, construct and reconstruct from

630
00:53:07,282 --> 00:53:11,142
materials that we have now, entire sky, right?

631
00:53:11,202 --> 00:53:13,082
So, you know, high rises, the biggest ones in the world.

632
00:53:13,082 --> 00:53:17,902
whatever buildings we have today, I'm in Santa Monica, Santa Monica is going vertical. Like

633
00:53:17,902 --> 00:53:20,862
they're going to build an 18 story building right next to me where most buildings are only six

634
00:53:20,862 --> 00:53:24,262
stories. The most we have here is like a six story building. Sometimes it's like a 10,

635
00:53:24,982 --> 00:53:30,702
but 18 stories on this little residential street is going to happen this year. But when the,

636
00:53:30,762 --> 00:53:33,642
when the robots come and start building, we're going to have much higher buildings

637
00:53:33,642 --> 00:53:39,082
and they're going to be building like crazy. So, so real estate can grow this way, but also new

638
00:53:39,082 --> 00:53:44,262
zoning. It's going to grow this way. In Hong Kong, they built a whole island out of trash to build on.

639
00:53:45,402 --> 00:53:50,382
You know, they built a whole mall on it. Like real estate can and will continue growing. So

640
00:53:50,382 --> 00:53:56,682
yeah, right now there's only so much Malibu coastline. But I mean, look at Dubai. They built

641
00:53:56,682 --> 00:54:01,402
out like palm islands in the shape of palm trees and stuff. They drudged from the ocean floor.

642
00:54:02,382 --> 00:54:08,523
So, you know, we're going to see amazing, amazing feats of engineering. Castles, pyramids, all kinds

643
00:54:08,523 --> 00:54:14,182
of stuff is going to come back into style when robots are building and sculpting and so it's

644
00:54:14,182 --> 00:54:19,462
just relevant what you were saying about like yeah today you know there's no there's no paper houses

645
00:54:19,462 --> 00:54:25,302
there's some paper gold there's some paper bitcoin right maybe maybe restricting the price of those

646
00:54:25,302 --> 00:54:31,482
things a little bit yeah yeah yeah that's why i think it is kind of like just an interesting

647
00:54:31,482 --> 00:54:36,162
thought experiment that i keep just running through and on my own it's like okay you know

648
00:54:36,162 --> 00:54:40,063
this model makes sense. And, and I mean, like I said, I think, uh, you know,

649
00:54:40,063 --> 00:54:45,002
Preston said something once when he was talking to plan B prior to, you know,

650
00:54:45,002 --> 00:54:49,262
that's Dr. Flow really breaking was like, all models are, are, uh,

651
00:54:49,622 --> 00:54:52,222
or I think even plan B might've said it, but it was like, uh, you know,

652
00:54:52,242 --> 00:54:56,382
all models are wrong, but some are very useful. And that's where I think like,

653
00:54:56,402 --> 00:54:59,182
you know, this is like the way you're lining it out to me.

654
00:54:59,182 --> 00:55:02,862
I do appreciate because you're, you know, you're not discounting all of this,

655
00:55:02,862 --> 00:55:11,282
But I'm always like trying to look at it as like, okay, we're still at like maybe one to 2% of full adoption globally.

656
00:55:11,902 --> 00:55:12,942
Well, we're actually at less.

657
00:55:13,122 --> 00:55:13,822
We're actually way less.

658
00:55:13,942 --> 00:55:14,762
I'll tell you where we're at.

659
00:55:15,142 --> 00:55:16,063
Okay, let's hear it.

660
00:55:16,342 --> 00:55:17,002
I'll tell you where we're at.

661
00:55:17,102 --> 00:55:22,582
So based on my measurements, the amount of total money in the world today is about 300 trillion.

662
00:55:22,582 --> 00:55:34,342
him so that includes 150 uh there's 150 trillion of sort of money like m3 money this is based on

663
00:55:34,342 --> 00:55:41,662
measurements by this guy matthew musynskis on on on x the government stopped reporting the m3 money

664
00:55:41,662 --> 00:55:46,543
supply because they didn't think it was useful or something in the u.s and other governments are

665
00:55:46,543 --> 00:55:50,782
very opaque about it but musynskis does a lot of research on this money supply he's been doing it

666
00:55:50,782 --> 00:55:57,362
for 10 years. And he's like, got amazing numbers on this money. So he estimates 150 trillion. I

667
00:55:57,362 --> 00:56:01,382
think it's somewhere around that number. And then bonds are another 150 trillion.

668
00:56:02,662 --> 00:56:11,962
So just Bitcoin as a percentage of money today, it's less than 1%. Okay. Yeah. Now we know that

669
00:56:11,962 --> 00:56:18,602
the money supply grows at 7% per year globally. Some countries grow at faster rates. Some countries

670
00:56:18,602 --> 00:56:25,082
grow at slower rates. China's at 10%. The US is at six, Europe's at six. The average is seven.

671
00:56:27,322 --> 00:56:34,602
And the value of things relative to the money supply also changes a lot. The value of gold

672
00:56:34,602 --> 00:56:39,082
relative to the money supply changes. It fluctuates. It doesn't follow a power law at all.

673
00:56:39,082 --> 00:56:45,242
Bitcoin is the only thing that follows a power law relative to the money supply. It's the only thing.

674
00:56:45,242 --> 00:56:50,442
and you can see all this on b1m you can explore the different tabs and kind of see that stuff and

675
00:56:50,442 --> 00:56:54,602
the deeper you look at this power law stuff the more you realize well bitcoin's this very unique

676
00:56:54,602 --> 00:56:59,722
asset you kind of feel it already but the power law describes that thing it's not a model that

677
00:57:00,523 --> 00:57:06,922
breaks or doesn't it doesn't work or doesn't work it it only doesn't work if bitcoin fails completely

678
00:57:07,563 --> 00:57:15,002
really it sort of accounts for the growth so you know but you were also i know you're mentioning the

679
00:57:15,002 --> 00:57:20,922
shiller cakes when you were looking at stocks why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece

680
00:57:20,922 --> 00:57:27,082
of paper it doesn't make sense you need a foolproof solution and i've got it for you you could get

681
00:57:27,082 --> 00:57:34,043
this as low as 25 and if you use promo code green candle you can get 10 off being around for 12

682
00:57:34,043 --> 00:57:40,362
years they've engineered the perfect and most easy to use solution i've partnered with crypto steel

683
00:57:40,362 --> 00:57:42,322
to offer for you guys just that.

684
00:57:42,622 --> 00:57:44,762
It is the cheapest and most secure way

685
00:57:44,762 --> 00:57:46,482
to store your C-phrase.

686
00:57:46,762 --> 00:57:47,842
I don't know about you guys,

687
00:57:48,023 --> 00:57:49,702
but I don't have too many things

688
00:57:49,702 --> 00:57:52,642
where I think one ton is going to fall on this,

689
00:57:52,742 --> 00:57:55,142
but it could survive all of that and more.

690
00:57:55,822 --> 00:57:58,362
So go to CryptoSteel.com.

691
00:57:58,442 --> 00:58:00,262
You can use promo code GreenCandle.

692
00:58:00,442 --> 00:58:03,702
You can get 10% off your entire order

693
00:58:03,702 --> 00:58:05,082
if you go there today.

694
00:58:05,362 --> 00:58:08,442
So go ahead and protect your generational wealth

695
00:58:08,442 --> 00:58:10,362
and do it with crypto steel.

696
00:58:10,742 --> 00:58:12,082
All right, enough from me.

697
00:58:12,242 --> 00:58:13,023
Back to the show.

698
00:58:14,063 --> 00:58:15,582
You know, but you were also,

699
00:58:15,782 --> 00:58:17,582
I know you were mentioning the Shiller capes

700
00:58:17,582 --> 00:58:18,822
when you were looking at stocks.

701
00:58:21,682 --> 00:58:23,402
And that's something else we looked at

702
00:58:23,402 --> 00:58:25,102
when we were writing Bitcoin 1 million

703
00:58:25,102 --> 00:58:30,602
is that the Shiller cape is like the highest it's ever been.

704
00:58:30,602 --> 00:58:36,442
So it's the idea of the Shiller P ratios

705
00:58:36,442 --> 00:58:44,582
is that we're looking at the price relative to earnings, right?

706
00:58:45,282 --> 00:58:46,662
Of these stocks.

707
00:58:47,682 --> 00:58:50,642
And this is what Warren Buffett would find

708
00:58:50,642 --> 00:58:53,142
and other smart investors in the future.

709
00:58:53,242 --> 00:58:58,382
This was part of the fundamentals model of investing in stocks, right?

710
00:58:58,382 --> 00:59:01,862
Where you have a company that has some earnings potential

711
00:59:01,862 --> 00:59:03,682
and current earnings,

712
00:59:03,822 --> 00:59:06,322
and then they have a price of their stock relative to those earnings.

713
00:59:06,442 --> 00:59:12,822
and as of right now this price to earnings is the highest it's ever been

714
00:59:12,822 --> 00:59:19,302
and it's only been growing so for the past 15 years i have a chart in this book

715
00:59:19,302 --> 00:59:25,342
it's just been going skyrocketing up that little dash line is the trend line of it

716
00:59:25,342 --> 00:59:30,362
and so we're basically at an all-time high in valuations of stocks you know what else

717
00:59:30,362 --> 00:59:36,682
at an all-time high the price of median home to median income in the united states

718
00:59:36,682 --> 00:59:42,023
also at an all-time high even though housing supply is at an all-time high we have more houses

719
00:59:42,023 --> 00:59:47,502
per capita than we've ever had but also the price of those has gone up in the past 15 years from

720
00:59:47,502 --> 00:59:53,702
it used to be 4x the median income so if the median income was 100k just for math sake i'm

721
00:59:53,702 --> 01:00:02,582
assume 100k median income the median home price was 400 000 right now if the median income is 100

722
01:00:02,582 --> 01:00:11,222
the median home price is 750 000 it's almost doubled in 15 years so there's something about

723
01:00:11,222 --> 01:00:16,342
our system that is cheap and i've been wondering why is this the case why does it feel like the

724
01:00:16,342 --> 01:00:22,023
odds are stacked against everyone you know and the answer to that really comes down to this plinko

725
01:00:23,702 --> 01:00:26,342
That money is all flowing into assets.

726
01:00:26,342 --> 01:00:36,002
It all ends up in assets because assets appreciate at a higher rate general than inflation, than the money printer.

727
01:00:36,582 --> 01:00:39,102
I'm saying generally because there's one asset that does not.

728
01:00:40,102 --> 01:00:40,902
Do you know what that one is?

729
01:00:41,523 --> 01:00:41,882
Bitcoin.

730
01:00:42,642 --> 01:00:46,002
No, yes, but in the negative way, it's bonds.

731
01:00:46,302 --> 01:00:46,922
Oh, okay.

732
01:00:47,043 --> 01:00:47,762
Yeah, bonds.

733
01:00:47,962 --> 01:00:51,082
Bonds only work when the value of everything else goes down.

734
01:00:52,043 --> 01:00:54,782
So if we have a year where everything else goes down in value,

735
01:00:55,382 --> 01:00:57,902
that's a year where bonds can win.

736
01:00:58,822 --> 01:00:59,742
And we've seen that historically.

737
01:00:59,882 --> 01:01:00,822
I think it was in 2011.

738
01:01:01,662 --> 01:01:05,082
That's the only year in the past 15 years that bonds have won.

739
01:01:06,242 --> 01:01:11,002
Bitcoin's won 8 out of 10 past 10 years in terms of year-over-year growth.

740
01:01:12,382 --> 01:01:14,982
Gold won one year, and bonds won one year.

741
01:01:15,502 --> 01:01:16,362
Gold might win this year.

742
01:01:17,222 --> 01:01:17,762
It might be a winner.

743
01:01:17,862 --> 01:01:20,202
Or Bitcoin might jump up by the end of the year.

744
01:01:20,202 --> 01:01:20,602
We don't know.

745
01:01:21,082 --> 01:01:22,742
It's very hard to predict these things.

746
01:01:22,842 --> 01:01:27,202
And the power law does not make any predictions about it, just a measurement.

747
01:01:27,942 --> 01:01:30,302
So, yeah.

748
01:01:30,722 --> 01:01:39,742
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because, like, I mean, Mark Moss had a great presentation about Bitcoin starting to take up the $300 trillion bond, Mark Moss.

749
01:01:40,023 --> 01:01:41,543
Oh, Mark Moss, yeah, I love his stuff, yeah.

750
01:01:41,762 --> 01:01:49,182
Yeah, so he had a great presentation about Bitcoin taking over the $300 trillion bond market and the $145 trillion fixed income market.

751
01:01:49,182 --> 01:02:05,682
And then if you look at even like the Wells Fargo CEO came out and said the products that MicroStrategy, Strategy B now is starting to take up with like StrikeStrive, all of these different financial assets, they're starting to dig into a lot of those markets.

752
01:02:05,682 --> 01:02:22,262
So I think it's just a matter of time before Wall Street starts to see all of these other assets and realize, all right, well, why would I put my money into the S&P 500, for example, when compared to Bitcoin, it's just losing value.

753
01:02:22,402 --> 01:02:33,602
And I think the other unique thing, too, is if you map out the M2 money supply to the S&P 500, I believe since the year 2000, it's either basically just about even or even down.

754
01:02:33,602 --> 01:02:40,842
uh so you know if you look at it from like an inflationary perspective you know the way that

755
01:02:40,842 --> 01:02:46,622
it's it's looking at it it's basically the s&p 500 is just breaking even and another interesting

756
01:02:46,622 --> 01:02:53,942
thing that you know yeah you lined out the pe ratios and i think strategy is really going to

757
01:02:53,942 --> 01:03:02,023
uh i guess like shed some light on this especially with the new fasby ruling because strategies uh

758
01:03:02,023 --> 01:03:10,622
what is it a PE ratio I believe is that like 4.2 or 4.5 after the last earnings and so it was like

759
01:03:10,622 --> 01:03:19,762
13th in revenue like you know top 100 in market cap and then like 498th in PE ratio in the the S&P

760
01:03:19,762 --> 01:03:28,862
500 or the top 500 companies uh so it's like the the it's still from where it's at is just extremely

761
01:03:28,862 --> 01:03:34,462
undervalued. And then now we're having so many treasury companies come online that, you know,

762
01:03:34,462 --> 01:03:38,902
one, I think the companies that have no underlying business, they're probably, you know, there's

763
01:03:38,902 --> 01:03:42,742
probably some of those that are going to blow up and these are going to be some of the potential

764
01:03:42,742 --> 01:03:47,602
black swans. But eventually every business is going to need to put Bitcoin on their balance

765
01:03:47,602 --> 01:03:53,462
sheet to kind of just keep that, you know, cashflow and keep everything steady over time.

766
01:03:53,462 --> 01:04:08,742
So that's where I think like just these adoption curves, it's really hard to just nail one thing down because I do think that there's going to be some events like unforeseen, maybe like an FTX type collapse for some major players.

767
01:04:08,742 --> 01:04:16,882
But there's always just these new buyers. And that's where I think it is getting a little interesting. And everybody always says, you know, this time is different.

768
01:04:16,882 --> 01:04:24,842
But over the weekend, too, we saw, you know, the biggest liquidation event in quote unquote crypto history.

769
01:04:25,222 --> 01:04:28,002
Of course, Bitcoin was was lumped into that.

770
01:04:28,282 --> 01:04:34,822
But, you know, with all these short sellers and everybody kind of coming out of the woodworks, we still held above that 100K mark.

771
01:04:34,822 --> 01:04:38,782
And, you know, we dropped like 12 percent and everybody was like, oh, Bitcoin.

772
01:04:38,942 --> 01:04:40,222
I mean, I got text messages.

773
01:04:40,222 --> 01:04:41,602
What's going on with Bitcoin?

774
01:04:41,602 --> 01:04:46,862
but that 12% drop immediately got scooped up by a lot of these big players.

775
01:04:46,862 --> 01:04:50,842
And the ETF inflows this morning as we're recording it on the 13th were

776
01:04:50,842 --> 01:04:54,023
extremely high. So that's where I think, you know,

777
01:04:54,043 --> 01:04:58,142
you're right on the volatility, maybe on the downward side,

778
01:04:58,142 --> 01:05:01,422
but I think the upward trajectory, maybe I'm just a moon boy,

779
01:05:01,422 --> 01:05:03,962
but the upward trajectory here is like,

780
01:05:03,982 --> 01:05:08,142
we have so many people just waiting to buy that once they see this dip,

781
01:05:08,222 --> 01:05:09,822
the more people that understand.

782
01:05:09,822 --> 01:05:13,582
And that's what we're waiting to buy at 10,000.

783
01:05:13,582 --> 01:05:16,063
They're waiting to buy at 100,000.

784
01:05:16,063 --> 01:05:18,282
That's they may not buy until 200,000.

785
01:05:18,282 --> 01:05:19,762
And when they buy 200,000, other people

786
01:05:19,762 --> 01:05:20,822
are going to be selling, you know?

787
01:05:20,822 --> 01:05:23,142
So yeah, that's fair.

788
01:05:23,142 --> 01:05:25,543
You know, I think the market dynamic of big

789
01:05:25,603 --> 01:05:33,223
Bitcoin is so difficult to understand, so complex because there's never been anything in the world like it that trades 24-7 anywhere in the world.

790
01:05:34,663 --> 01:05:40,683
And that has such huge liquidity. I mean, it's really amazing what Bitcoin has become.

791
01:05:41,923 --> 01:05:46,463
And I think that it's still very hard for people to understand.

792
01:05:46,863 --> 01:05:53,163
Even though they don't really understand stocks that well, they can conceptually, they get it because their parents were into it.

793
01:05:53,163 --> 01:05:55,563
And so, you know, there's a there's sort of a.

794
01:05:56,763 --> 01:05:59,603
There's a generational shift that's happening in some ways that's causing

795
01:05:59,603 --> 01:06:04,163
Bitcoin adoption to go up, people who grew up in the digital age, you know, people like us, we.

796
01:06:05,483 --> 01:06:15,123
We're kind of the last bridge before we had no Internet when we were kids and and I don't know how old you are, but I'm guessing you didn't have Internet when you were a kid at some point.

797
01:06:17,403 --> 01:06:19,003
And we then Internet existed.

798
01:06:19,083 --> 01:06:21,243
We're the last generation to have that happen.

799
01:06:21,243 --> 01:06:25,643
the future generations all digital they just they completely only think of digital world and

800
01:06:26,283 --> 01:06:29,483
you know our children will grow up in a world where where all they have is ai they're gonna

801
01:06:29,483 --> 01:06:37,643
be exposed ai from the time they're born basically and so um in that world

802
01:06:39,243 --> 01:06:46,923
bitcoin becomes more of a normal thing it's less of a niche strange digital thing that people don't

803
01:06:46,923 --> 01:06:55,083
understand right so part of this is also that decisions you were you were talking about how

804
01:06:55,083 --> 01:06:58,683
um or we were both talking about how investment advisors in the future are going to be

805
01:06:59,723 --> 01:07:04,763
having to recommend bitcoin for companies for individuals whatever but imagine that also

806
01:07:05,963 --> 01:07:09,083
all the money in the world 10 years from now is going to be managed by ai not by people

807
01:07:09,083 --> 01:07:17,683
it's already occurring i mean everyone's using chat gpt to make their financial decisions already

808
01:07:17,683 --> 01:07:22,843
help me weigh out these options let's talk about you know like whatever you ultimately humans are

809
01:07:22,843 --> 01:07:30,463
the decision makers still but ai is advising and when what do you think ai is going to recommend

810
01:07:30,463 --> 01:07:38,523
people put their money into yeah once we get a good ai it probably will just say hey invest in

811
01:07:38,523 --> 01:07:42,863
the best performing asset since it's been as ai first to read more evidence like this

812
01:07:42,863 --> 01:07:51,103
this book is like a 360 degree angle or every angle of what what you could think about bitcoin

813
01:07:51,103 --> 01:07:57,643
in the future and we also we have a chapter predicting that in here too what happens yeah

814
01:07:57,643 --> 01:08:03,643
let's dive into it tell us a little bit about the book um and uh yeah the purpose behind writing it

815
01:08:03,643 --> 01:08:09,483
and give us a little bit of, yeah, maybe a sales pitch here of why we should read it.

816
01:08:09,823 --> 01:08:10,343
Well, I'll tell you.

817
01:08:10,343 --> 01:08:17,803
So first of all, I've been researching Bitcoin and Satoshi for 10 years.

818
01:08:17,863 --> 01:08:30,151
Really not just thinking about it but reading all of Satoshi posts and emails reading the code analyzing early versions of the code base I became kind of obsessed with Bitcoin in 2014

819
01:08:31,491 --> 01:08:34,331
And so then that kind of led to writing this book last year.

820
01:08:34,391 --> 01:08:36,271
So I wrote a book last year called The Big Bitcoin Book.

821
01:08:36,851 --> 01:08:38,211
That's like an art book about Bitcoin.

822
01:08:38,271 --> 01:08:38,771
Have you ever seen it?

823
01:08:39,331 --> 01:08:39,551
Yeah.

824
01:08:39,851 --> 01:08:40,111
Yeah.

825
01:08:40,151 --> 01:08:42,171
Fred was actually on the show and showed it.

826
01:08:42,271 --> 01:08:43,091
Oh, he showed it to you.

827
01:08:43,131 --> 01:08:43,271
Yeah.

828
01:08:43,311 --> 01:08:45,291
Anyways, it's got really beautiful charts.

829
01:08:45,291 --> 01:08:49,451
and this is relevant because there's a page in this book.

830
01:08:50,151 --> 01:08:52,891
We cover all the things that came before Bitcoin,

831
01:08:53,671 --> 01:08:55,651
all the people that built things, what were they

832
01:08:55,651 --> 01:08:57,511
and how are they relevant to Bitcoin or not?

833
01:08:58,211 --> 01:09:00,091
And you can kind of open any page in here

834
01:09:00,091 --> 01:09:01,611
and find something interesting.

835
01:09:01,851 --> 01:09:05,151
There's Starkness, good friend of mine.

836
01:09:05,951 --> 01:09:08,591
But there's one page in here in particular

837
01:09:08,591 --> 01:09:11,911
that I just kept showing to people.

838
01:09:11,911 --> 01:09:16,911
And it's a page about what asset do you put your money into?

839
01:09:16,911 --> 01:09:17,911
Right?

840
01:09:17,911 --> 01:09:24,911
And you kind of look at stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.

841
01:09:24,911 --> 01:09:26,911
And we look at a 15 year timeframe.

842
01:09:26,911 --> 01:09:32,911
I love this 10 to 15 year timeframe because it's something that people can absolutely wrap their heads around.

843
01:09:32,911 --> 01:09:34,911
You know?

844
01:09:34,911 --> 01:09:36,911
So anyways, there's one page in here about that.

845
01:09:36,911 --> 01:09:40,911
That page was the page I kept talking to people the most about.

846
01:09:40,911 --> 01:09:43,731
I would like, let me have to show you this page in my book.

847
01:09:43,791 --> 01:09:46,091
This will really explain it to you because my friends are like, I don't get Bitcoin.

848
01:09:46,171 --> 01:09:47,491
Look, I invest in real estate, man.

849
01:09:48,191 --> 01:09:51,231
And I'm like, yeah, but think about it in a different way.

850
01:09:51,311 --> 01:09:57,431
Let me just show you how real estate could look in 15 years or 20 years or 10 years even.

851
01:09:58,491 --> 01:10:00,531
And so that's what sort of turned into this book.

852
01:10:00,671 --> 01:10:03,771
One or two pages in that book were a page we were talking about all the time.

853
01:10:04,551 --> 01:10:09,411
And we realized that we needed to build a book that contains all of the tools and arguments,

854
01:10:09,411 --> 01:10:13,331
mathematically and logically looking into the future and really talking about the future of

855
01:10:13,331 --> 01:10:18,911
Bitcoin, not the past. And so we have 21 chapters in here. That's all about the future of Bitcoin.

856
01:10:19,911 --> 01:10:25,411
First, we talk about sort of the base models, the Bitcoin power law, the money printer,

857
01:10:25,551 --> 01:10:31,871
inflation. Then we go into stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, the ETF, MSTR and Bitcoin treasury

858
01:10:31,871 --> 01:10:38,831
companies, BitBonds, stable coins, how those are a path to Bitcoin. Then we talk about scaling,

859
01:10:38,831 --> 01:10:45,631
fast Bitcoin. And then we talk about the apex predator. So, so we're, we're, we're kind of

860
01:10:45,631 --> 01:10:53,831
promoting this idea of Bitcoin being a shark here, this big orange shark. And, you know, that's a big

861
01:10:53,831 --> 01:10:58,251
part. We're going to have something really fun at our event for that. But we have AI and Bitcoin,

862
01:10:58,371 --> 01:11:03,671
the quantum risk government's psychology of holding, which is sort of how do you make it

863
01:11:03,671 --> 01:11:08,651
through these market cycles when, when they occur, they're big booms and bus Kelly

864
01:11:08,651 --> 01:11:12,791
criterion, which is a, which is a rebalancing, uh, thing that was developed at

865
01:11:12,791 --> 01:11:16,391
bell labs, how you, how do you choose how much to allocate to an asset, depending

866
01:11:16,391 --> 01:11:30,479
on volatility and then we going to do a big one back loans a whole chapter on loans in here big one 1 million Bitcoin 10 million is the final chapter I tell you the final chapter of this If you only read one chapter that the one It so compelling

867
01:11:30,639 --> 01:11:31,539
It's so interesting.

868
01:11:31,699 --> 01:11:32,939
You can start there if you want.

869
01:11:32,999 --> 01:11:34,039
You don't have to read this book in order.

870
01:11:34,679 --> 01:11:42,059
But it is an amazing story that begins with Hal Finney predicting the $10 million per coin in 2009, right?

871
01:11:42,679 --> 01:11:43,139
It's amazing.

872
01:11:44,059 --> 01:11:45,979
So anyways, I'm really excited about the book.

873
01:11:45,979 --> 01:11:56,159
I'm really excited about giving everyone these amazing tools to convince themselves and convince other people about why they need to hold Bitcoin.

874
01:11:58,839 --> 01:12:00,079
Yeah, I'd love to hear it.

875
01:12:00,119 --> 01:12:02,699
And then you mentioned your event you got going on.

876
01:12:02,819 --> 01:12:07,639
I know this will probably be released a little shortly after, but tell us a little bit about that.

877
01:12:08,279 --> 01:12:10,959
Yeah, we have this unconference event we do in Santa Monica.

878
01:12:11,499 --> 01:12:12,299
We did it last year.

879
01:12:12,359 --> 01:12:13,439
We're doing it again this year.

880
01:12:13,439 --> 01:12:18,959
we have 200 people come out no cameras no photos no streaming just conversation so

881
01:12:18,959 --> 01:12:23,719
it's really meant for like a crowd that's very private that doesn't want to be publicly

882
01:12:23,719 --> 01:12:28,699
associated with bitcoin for example but they're interested about bitcoin most of the people who

883
01:12:28,699 --> 01:12:35,019
come have gotten to bitcoin only in the past sort of five years and so it's not like an og crypto

884
01:12:35,019 --> 01:12:42,519
thing you know there's none of those people most people are just people with real jobs real careers

885
01:12:42,519 --> 01:12:50,699
you know traditional jobs and careers let's say a lot of retired guys and women who are

886
01:12:50,699 --> 01:12:54,959
very interested in bitcoin interested in learning more about bitcoin interested in talking to

887
01:12:54,959 --> 01:13:00,539
other people that are very into bitcoin so it's a bitcoin only a little unconference here in

888
01:13:00,539 --> 01:13:07,019
santa monica that's one day only fully catered very private and we have some special guests who

889
01:13:07,019 --> 01:13:11,359
come in that are not advertised ahead of time and it's all about just that one day and connecting

890
01:13:11,359 --> 01:13:18,079
and having really great conversations about bitcoin so it's called bitcoin alpha okay great

891
01:13:18,079 --> 01:13:23,359
so what was the motivation behind this and uh i know you said you can't mention any speakers but

892
01:13:23,359 --> 01:13:28,479
obviously you'll be there um so anybody that you can uh well the schedule is actually visible for

893
01:13:28,479 --> 01:13:33,279
anyone to see we don't have speakers per se okay we just have sessions and the way it works is that

894
01:13:33,279 --> 01:13:39,199
there's someone who leads the session like i'm going to leave a session called um self custody

895
01:13:39,199 --> 01:13:47,379
or self-destruct, which is very much about the future of why holding your own keys and

896
01:13:47,379 --> 01:13:53,159
holding your own coins is really important to not just you, but to future generations

897
01:13:53,159 --> 01:13:57,419
of your family, that you train them how to hold onto those keys outside of the system.

898
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:02,759
And so I'm going to do a session on that where I'm going to talk for the first 10 minutes

899
01:14:02,759 --> 01:14:05,419
and then everyone's going to be able to engage.

900
01:14:05,419 --> 01:14:11,999
We'll have 40, 50 people in a session, or maybe as few as 10.

901
01:14:11,999 --> 01:14:14,939
And everyone will be able to have a really great conversation about that topic.

902
01:14:14,939 --> 01:14:18,379
And whoever's leading the session becomes sort of the moderator of it.

903
01:14:18,379 --> 01:14:29,187
We got great people leading sessions They going to be really amazing You would be incredible if you were going to come You could do a really great session We have

904
01:14:29,187 --> 01:14:31,287
some different hosts of different podcasts

905
01:14:31,287 --> 01:14:33,247
and stuff coming. Some people that aren't

906
01:14:33,247 --> 01:14:35,267
even publicly big Bitcoiners are going to come

907
01:14:35,267 --> 01:14:36,267
and do a session, I think.

908
01:14:37,047 --> 01:14:39,147
It's cool. It's a really exciting little event for

909
01:14:39,147 --> 01:14:41,106
people in the U.S. to come to

910
01:14:41,106 --> 01:14:43,226
where you don't have to leave the country or you might be able

911
01:14:43,226 --> 01:14:45,147
to walk there. We had a guy come last year

912
01:14:45,147 --> 01:14:47,226
who paid him Bitcoin, signed up under a

913
01:14:47,226 --> 01:14:52,587
big name and came and introduced himself to me as an alias. I think not his real name, you know,

914
01:14:52,587 --> 01:14:56,166
he was just like, here's the first Bitcoin event I've ever been to. I've been in Bitcoin for 10

915
01:14:56,166 --> 01:14:59,786
plus years, but I just have never wanted to come to events. I would have had to travel.

916
01:15:00,207 --> 01:15:03,767
I would have had to reveal my identity. And this, this one's so cool because no one's even taking

917
01:15:03,767 --> 01:15:08,967
pictures. I really appreciate that. And I was like, wow, that's, that's, that's, that's pretty

918
01:15:08,967 --> 01:15:14,727
cool. I love that story, you know? So, so that's why we do it. We do it because we're here in Santa

919
01:15:14,727 --> 01:15:17,106
Monica and we want to have a place.

920
01:15:17,187 --> 01:15:18,087
We want to build a community here.

921
01:15:18,147 --> 01:15:20,487
You know, we, we talked to Matteo Pellegrini a ton.

922
01:15:20,567 --> 01:15:21,967
He comes over to our office all the time.

923
01:15:22,487 --> 01:15:24,627
And we love that what he's doing with orange black.

924
01:15:24,847 --> 01:15:27,347
We've kind of made the event spot.

925
01:15:27,407 --> 01:15:28,807
You know, we have like, we don't sponsor it.

926
01:15:28,807 --> 01:15:32,187
We have like some exhibitors and we're using orange pill for our chats.

927
01:15:32,187 --> 01:15:34,487
And we use orange pill, like blast out things.

928
01:15:34,487 --> 01:15:36,227
So I love orange pill out.

929
01:15:36,327 --> 01:15:37,267
I love community building.

930
01:15:38,027 --> 01:15:41,867
And this event is such a great human event.

931
01:15:41,867 --> 01:15:48,887
so that's what yeah 100 well yeah now i've got fomo man i've uh i'm actually traveling to the

932
01:15:48,887 --> 01:15:54,106
great white north here i'll be in i'll be in canada but maybe uh maybe in the future we'll

933
01:15:54,106 --> 01:15:58,447
have to you guys will have to let me know maybe i'll make a trip out to cali and uh yeah we do

934
01:15:58,447 --> 01:16:05,587
another one yeah they they're amazing we probably will continue doing them but we don't commit to

935
01:16:05,587 --> 01:16:10,807
it very far in advance so yeah i hear you well cool man i really appreciate your time and i feel

936
01:16:10,807 --> 01:16:15,387
like this was a great conversation. We'll maybe have to have you on here in maybe a few months

937
01:16:15,387 --> 01:16:18,987
down the road, but why don't you tell people where they can find the retirement calculator,

938
01:16:19,166 --> 01:16:25,307
the book, and more about you? Definitely. I think the best place to go is b1m.io.

939
01:16:25,786 --> 01:16:31,307
That's got links to everything on the about page. You can find me, my Twitter account or

940
01:16:31,307 --> 01:16:36,447
extec.com account. That's where I live most of the time. You can DM me. My DMs are open.

941
01:16:36,447 --> 01:16:39,286
I try to answer them when people write me like you did.

942
01:16:40,547 --> 01:16:43,967
And yeah, the retirement calculator is on B1M.

943
01:16:44,127 --> 01:16:45,607
The links to the book are on B1M.

944
01:16:46,347 --> 01:16:49,387
And that's my new home over there.

945
01:16:50,067 --> 01:16:50,267
Perfect.

946
01:16:50,467 --> 01:16:51,786
Well, I'll put that in the show notes.

947
01:16:51,887 --> 01:16:52,827
Everybody go check it out.

948
01:16:52,927 --> 01:16:54,187
Check out the retirement calculator.

949
01:16:54,447 --> 01:16:55,166
I think it's great.

950
01:16:55,227 --> 01:16:56,387
It really opened my eyes.

951
01:16:56,547 --> 01:16:59,307
And I think it was a unique spin to everything.

952
01:16:59,487 --> 01:17:01,027
So Ben, thanks so much for coming on.

953
01:17:01,327 --> 01:17:02,387
And man, I really-

954
01:17:02,387 --> 01:17:02,507
Thank you for having me.

955
01:17:02,527 --> 01:17:03,087
This is awesome.

956
01:17:03,187 --> 01:17:03,947
Yeah, appreciate it.

957
01:17:03,947 --> 01:17:09,207
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.

958
01:17:09,607 --> 01:17:14,967
If you found some value in this one, please hit that subscribe button and that like button to help send this one to the masses.

959
01:17:15,187 --> 01:17:16,467
And I've got a surprise for you guys.

960
01:17:16,607 --> 01:17:19,827
I've got two more episodes that you have the chance to watch here.

961
01:17:19,947 --> 01:17:22,827
So go ahead and click one of them and I'll see you guys all at the next one.