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We get a 10x in Bitcoin over the next seven, eight years.

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That's nothing like they have experienced up to now.

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If Powell comes out this week and he's tremendously honoured

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and he does not keep the door open for a rape cut,

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the OGs, the whales that have been around for a long time,

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I think some of them want to remain in Bitcoin,

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but they want to get a little bit more out of it.

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The way they do that is the ultimate end game is to...

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You're going to see a drawdown in the market.

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That's my opinion.

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I believe it's pretty obvious, though.

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protect your treasury not by buying bonds but by buying bitcoin because bonds are being melted away

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with extreme inflation there's a long long runway here of for bitcoin and a multiple that return i

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believe what's up guys before we get started i've realized that over 50 000 of you guys keep coming

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back for every single episode and while i'm eternally grateful for you guys to keep coming

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back. I've realized that 79% of you guys are not subscribed. So I have one small ask before we get

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started. If you guys could hit that subscribe button and hit that like button to help send

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this interview and many more to the stratosphere, it would be greatly appreciated. All right,

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enough from me. Let's get into the show. Bing bong. I am back with another edition of the

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State of Bitcoin podcast where I've got the man, the myth, the legend, recurring guest,

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James lavish in the house. And I think this is the perfect time to get James on the show

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because with your Wall Street experience and the fund, all of the businesses that are going on,

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it seems like the Bitcoin treasury companies are the new wave. But we have a little bit of a wrinkle

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here right now where Bitcoin just smashed a new all-time high and then creeped back a little bit.

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But these treasury companies are not performing as well as one might have thought in the past.

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So, James, what is going on with these treasury companies?

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Is it all over?

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Well, first of all, thank you for having me here, Brandon.

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Always good to talk to you.

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And even though you're an Aggie, we're going to put that in the backseat for a little bit.

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But I may troll you.

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Already starting with it.

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so um yeah you know there's look there's a lot of stuff that's going on and really a lot of stuff

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that's not going on and through my career um you know i've spent 30 years watching this on wall

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street every single summer we get to the same spot where it's just you know you call it the

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summer doldrums whatever um people are off they're on vacation they're in europe they're in the

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They're in the Hamptons.

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They're down on the Cape.

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They're just not paying attention.

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And they're kind of unplugged at the end of the summer here.

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I mean, we're in the depth of August.

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I'm in Vegas, and it's so abusively hot outside that you're basically, you know, if you're still in Vegas, then you're working on stuff.

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But everybody else is, they're in California.

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They're in Colorado.

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They're in Utah.

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they're just not around. So, I mean, my neighborhood is a ghost town right now.

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But so that's kind of, that's a big part of it. So a big part of what you're seeing is these big

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moves that are on light volume. And so what we see is somebody who goes and wants to, you know,

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build up a big position, they're going to have to, they're going to have to move the stock or

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the Bitcoin price or the treasury price, because there's not a lot of, there's not a lot of volume

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out there. So this weekend and into today, we're seeing this, these, you know, large enough moves,

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multi-percent moves in Bitcoin. Sounds like a lot of $3,000, but it's really only two and a half

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percent, not that big of a deal for Bitcoin. But there's not a lot of volume, Brandon. It's like,

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It's more of a buyer strike than a tsunami of sellers.

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So that's one thing.

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This is a big week.

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Politically, you've got Trump just had basically every European official leader in his office, in a semicircle around his office,

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called into the principal's office to negotiate a deal for a peace deal for Ukraine.

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And he doesn't want to ceasefire.

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wants a peace deal. And so, you know, that's, that's a big, that's an overarching kind of

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thing that's going on politically right now. While you've got financially, you've got the,

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there's so much uncertainty in the markets financially. I wrote about this this past

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weekend in my newsletter that, you know, this is a big week for the Fed. Why is it a big week for

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the Fed because this is Jackson Hole week. This is the week where they have the economic symposium.

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And this has grown from this small little invite only little gathering as kind of like a place for

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Fed officials and central bankers and some of the bankers and leaders to get together and talk about

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where the economy is and what they think the policy ought to be going forward and kind of

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maybe float some ideas, bat them around. Now it's, it's an absolute circus. It's a zoo.

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You've got everybody coming in from around the world that descendants, this little,

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you know, city in Wyoming. And, and it's become like the ultimate boondoggle for a lot of them.

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But for one person in particular, it becomes their legacy, you know, or their chance to cement their

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legacy and that's chairman powell and so this is the last time he gets to speak at this conference

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and what it is is they're out there in jackson hole wyoming it's kind of sleepy it's western

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you got barbecue you got fly fishing you know and uh and it used to be that the the reporters would

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go there and they would try to get some more down-to-earth commentary from these officials

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and like maybe catch them off guard maybe or less guarded maybe right so it's not like like they're

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trying to trick them they're just they're less guarded in what they say whatever but it's not

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like that anymore um you know he's not on a podium he's not at an official press conference but he

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does have an official um press appointment on friday morning where he talks to them about what

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occurred throughout the week. And believe me when I say that every single investor who's in the

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office and not on the Cape and not in the Hamptons and not in Nantucket, and they're not in Colorado

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and California, they're actually paying attention and they're hanging on every single syllable

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that he utters. And the reason for that is that we've had a lot of conflicting economic data over

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the last number of weeks, we had massive job revisions from the BLS, which ultimately resulted

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in Trump getting pissed off and firing the head of BLS. We had a kind of a benign CPI number.

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We had a massive surprise in the PPI, which people are attributing to tariffs.

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and then we had some really strong retail sales numbers.

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And so the employment's getting softer,

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unemployment's rising, yet prices are still coming.

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They're staying in a range

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that the Fed is getting more comfortable with

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around that 3% range.

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And now you've got, then you've got this PPI number,

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which is the producer price index,

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which means that prices of goods for wholesalers have gone up.

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And that means that eventually what you would expect is that that that rise in prices will be passed on to the consumers.

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It'll come in the CPI eventually.

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And and then you've got the retail sales numbers, which is like, is this because you have these very strong demographic,

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a wealthy demographic, an older demographic, whether it's the top 1% or it's just the boomers

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that are still spending? Or is it also YOLO? Charge it up, put it on credit cards,

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and you're seeing credit card rates and delinquencies rise. Not the interest rates,

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but the amount of usage. And so what is it? Is it people are just like, well, screw it. I'm never

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going to be able to buy a house. I'm Gen Z. I'm not going to be able to, um, put enough money away.

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So I might as well just spend it on this trip or this vacation or go to Vegas or whatever. Um,

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which actually we're not seeing them come to Vegas. That's another, that's a whole nother

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category. The, the casinos here have completely annihilated themselves with their excessive

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charges on everything. They upcharge on everything, even like $25 bottles of water in your hotel room.

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like absolutely insane. So, but so that's the question. People are like, all right, where,

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where are we economically? And the, by and large, the, the, the, what people, investors are coming

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to the conclusion of is that the Fed's going to capitulate. They're going to lower rates here in

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September in just a few weeks. They're going to, in just about three weeks, they're going to lower

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rates and by 25 basis points. If you look at Fed Funds futures, it shows about an 85% probability

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of that happening is that's what investors believe. At least that's how they're hedged.

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And so now you've got Powell and what does he say? What does he say this week on Friday?

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Is he hawkish? Does he continue to hammer on the point that we're data dependent?

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does he concede that we're making strong headway in inflation and we're not as worried about that?

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We're now turning our attention over to the unemployment situation. Because if he does say

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that, then that means that they're not going to worry about the inflation. That's kind of in check,

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but we're more worried about this, which means that we need to get closer to the neutral rate,

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which would not be expansionary and it wouldn't be contractionary. Like it would be kind of the

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neutral rate, which we're clearly well above that right now. And so the question is how,

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what words does he use and maybe what words doesn't he use in order to describe what he believes,

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where he believes we are. Now, Brandon, I think he's comes at this in a way that

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solidifies his legacy. This is the last chance he gets to be, to give his, you know, kind of

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off the cuff, um, a little bit, um, less formal, informal setting of, Hey, how did I do over my

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tenure, uh, as chairman of the fed, because this is his last shot at that. And so this is where he

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gets to just talk about what he wants to talk about and frame his legacy the way he wants to

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frame it. And I believe that regardless of all the noise that you've had. What if I told you,

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with Trump, you know, ushering him into that building and, you know, embarrassing him with

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the way he's got that hard hat on. He just looks like a little boy over there next to him and

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pulling out the paper and, you know, as if he's like the, again, the principal

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admonishing his student, you know. I think regardless of all that noise, I think that

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Powell wants to solidify his legacy that he got the job done. He did not let inflation rage out

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of control, although it did rage and it got near, nearly got out of control. Um, and it was because

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of what the fed did. Let's make that clear. They caused this problem, but he did put the fire out

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and he wants to cement his legacy there. Now the question is what you, what words does he use to do

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that and you know i believe that he's going to come out and he's going to say that we're that

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we've uh we're getting comfortable with the trajectory of inflation we're more concerned

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about jobs which means that it opens the door for a 25 basis point cut in september which is a really

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big deal for stocks and risk assets and and things like uh bitcoin and gold because it's an expansion

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some liquidity, basically, you know, you make the cost of capital lower, which is good for

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those kinds of assets and securities. And so, but I do believe he leaves the door open.

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And what you're seeing right now is some uncertainty around how he's going to come

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out this week. What kind of numbers are still coming? Because we still have another CPI,

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another PPI, another PCE. We got more unemployment numbers between now and the next September

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meeting and he could change his mind like that and so there's probably some uncertainty going on and

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bitcoin's definitely sniffing that out and getting a little nervous here again i'm very light volume

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that's a long answer to your question but that's why where i believe we're at right now in the

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general market yeah and that those are all great points and and i want to dive into a little bit

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more about jerome powell and in the fed right because i mean trump has basically been yeah like

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you said almost like bullying him to try to get him to lower interest rates for a while

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and powell's been i guess to a certain extent holding steady just because his belief has been

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like inflation is not under wraps and you know depending on what data you look at you can find

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essentially whatever you want to see in this data right i mean you you named a few of these numbers

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we've seen a massive revisions in the jobs market but on the flip side of things like the s p 500

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Bitcoin, like everything in the market is seeming to do all right, hitting new all time highs and kind of having this pump here.

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But then, you know, the consumer looks to be struggling.

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And then CPI, you know, seems to be doing OK at that 2.7.

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We're staying underneath that three range.

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So how would you categorize it?

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Do you think that we're kind of in this space where we essentially, you know, we're OK?

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We have inflation somewhat under control.

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It's not going and spiraling out of control.

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And we need to lower interest rates in order to, I guess, make the economy a little bit more healthy.

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So this data isn't just so conflicting.

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Or is there something deeper underneath the hood here where, you know, maybe cutting interest rates might be a bad thing?

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Yeah, I think personally, from what I'm seeing, I think that the economy is rolling over.

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that the jobs numbers were terribly inflated by fiscal spending by the Biden administration hiring, you know, millions of people.

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And so I think that that has kind of covered up this, what could have been a recession last year and the role over the economy here.

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And so the people losing their jobs, it happens so rapidly, Brandon, that that's why you have something called the SOM rule.

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The SOM rule says that if you get over, if the unemployment rate rises more than a half a percent from its lows, and there's more math to it, but that's just oversimplifying it.

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But for all intents and purposes, that means that the SOM rule is tripped.

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That means you're already in a recession and it jumps from there.

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It doesn't just go to 4.3%.

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It goes 5, 6, 7, 8%.

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Like it happens so quickly and you see it in all the recessions.

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You can just go chart out unemployment against recessions.

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You can see how quickly it happens.

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And so I do believe we're rolling over.

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I do believe that interest rates are too tight and we do need to lower them soon.

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And what we seeing in pricing is it difficult to figure out for a number of reasons You had a lot of chatter about it and a lot of noise from mainstream media specifically around tariffs

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and how tariffs are going to be inflationary. And I think that scared people into buying the

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things that they needed to buy, wanted to buy in the first quarter, in the first half of this year.

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big things. iPhones, you know, there was talk about how iPhones could double or triple in price

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if Trump insisted on bringing all the manufacturing back to the United States

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and levying massive tariffs on Apple. We saw that that was avoided, that, you know,

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Tim Cook went into the White House and conceded they would be

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specifically building parts of iPhones here and bringing that back on shore.

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But people bought iPhones. They went out and bought washers and dryers. They bought cars

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because they're worried about these tariffs that are being levied on them. And so some of this could

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be a one-time pass-through. Also, producers went out and bought a bunch of goods to make sure that

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they were able to get the hard materials, the raw materials to make whatever they need to make

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for the consumers. And so there was, again, just the demands spiked a little bit in the first half

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of the year. How much of that has impacted pricing? It's hard to say. The second thing is,

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even if it does impact pricing, even if tariffs do impact pricing negatively and prices rise,

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I believe that would be a short-term one-time deal. It's not like you would have ongoing

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3.5% inflation and a spike of inflation ongoing because of tariffs. It would be a one-time 3.5%

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back down to wherever it was headed after that. It's just a blip according to the tariffs.

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It'll be difficult to see that because these tariffs are being kind of doled out along the way.

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So it won't happen in just one quarter or one print, but it'll happen over a series of them and then that's it.

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So it still has to do with the economy ultimately and how well the economy is doing and how much money supply is out there and chasing after these goods.

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And so I don't believe that structurally tariffs will long term raise and keep raising inflation.

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inflation. It doesn't make sense to me mathematically. But I do believe that we

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need to start lowering rates. And the reason for that is the Fed keeps saying they're data

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dependent. They say it over and over and over and over and over. They hide behind this.

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We're data dependent. We're data dependent. We're data dependent. And then you see certain data and

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you're like, well, you don't seem to be depending on this data. Number one, you're picking and

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choosing. Evidence of that is right before the election, the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points

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there in that, in that September, before the election, there was really, it wasn't warranted

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to, to lower them 50 basis points. They might've been, unless you expected them to keep lowering,

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if they're going to lower by 50 basis points, the expectation is 25, the next one, 25, the next one,

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then maybe pause. You don't just lower 50% of 50 basis points and pause. That was very odd. It's

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not, it's pretty uncharacteristic for the history of the Fed to do something like that. It was pretty

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political, obviously. Whether they were getting tremendous pressure from Elizabeth Warren,

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who had a big voice before the election, it's kind of quieted it down quite a bit because

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people are seeing through her nonsense, but, and how much it cost, how many votes it cost

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the Democrats for her to be anti-crypto. But it was clearly political. And for the Fed to claim

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they're not political, they can't bend to the pressure of Trump now. So that's clear too.

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So however, the situation we're in, I think that the data is giving Powell enough air cover,

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especially on the employment side, that he could ease 25 basis points. And it's not that he's

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giving in to Trump, if he was giving it to Trump, he'd ease 50, you know, because that's what

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percent just demanded, uh, in all, for all intents and purposes. Again, he didn't tell him to do that.

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He said that the models are showing that we're 150 basis points at a point, like 1.5% above

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neutral, which I think is aggressive. I think we're maybe, maybe 1% above neutral, but

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regardless, whatever models you're using, we are above and we could ease. But then I think that

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it's time. And so the markets are starting to tell you that. And the stock market will suffer.

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If Powell comes out this week and he's tremendously hawkish, if he's terribly hawkish

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and he does not keep the door open for a rate cut, you're going to see a drawdown in the market.

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That's my opinion. I believe it's pretty obvious, though.

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So but I think Bitcoin and some of the tech stocks are getting nervous here.

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You had not great earnings this morning from some of the tech leaders.

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And, you know, and so the queues are off and the S&P is kind of dragging a little bit and Bitcoin is leading the way.

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It continues to be the tip of the risk spear.

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spear. I don't believe it should be, but it is. And we just have to recognize that. People have

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to get their heads around that, especially the maxis who I agree with them that it shouldn't be,

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but it is right now because it's considered that way. And it's going to continue to trade that way

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until further notice. And so that's kind of where we're at.

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So it seems like everybody's just seemingly waiting for, I guess, maybe this Jackson Hole

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prior to the rate cut in September, if that even occurs.

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I mean, who knows at this point?

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And the other data that's coming out along the way, right?

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Yeah, and I want to dive into that because you said that the Fed has always come out

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and said that they're very data dependent.

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But the revisions and if you look at the way CPI has been calculated,

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like one of my favorite websites is govflation.com.

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It shows how CPI used to be calculated back in like 1982, I think, which was like the first revision post gold standard.

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And, you know, the gap in between that just keeps, you know, rising and rising.

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And, you know, it seems like CPI, they're always excluding food and energy and same with PPI.

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So when a Fed is data dependent, and it seems like a lot of this data is either collected by surveys or leaving certain things out, changing the baskets of goods for CPI, how reliable do you feel that this data is?

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And do you think that that's the right approach?

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I think it's terribly unreliable, as we've seen, and it's lagging.

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And so the problem here is that you've got data that's lagging, and then you've got a Fed that lags the data.

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So they miss the mark every time they overshoot. But you've also heard Powell say that he'd rather overshoot on tightening than on loosening because it's kind of like, you know, if he's if he's loosening too much that inflation.

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could the, the inflation could rate that fire could rage out of control. It's very difficult

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to get that back in line as we've seen. I mean, it's just the law of physics. Um, it's very much

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like a wildfire. Uh, but if, if you print too much money, which they did and we saw happen

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and then they scrambled and in, in a near panic to get the, to get that under control by

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not only implementing QT, quantitative tightening, where they're selling those bonds that they bought

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off their books, the Fed, but also by raising interest rates at a breakneck speed, which they

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did. But inflation got up above 9% that we admitted to. I mean, you can't tell me that my

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insurance costs were up only 20%. I mean, they've doubled. And knock on wood,

277
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great driver, basically a perfect record here. And my insurance just keeps going up and up and up and

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up and up. There are a lot of reasons for that. You know, the simple reason is inflation. Another

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reason is because you have a lot of uninsured drivers out there that, you know, the insurance

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companies have to raise the prices in order to cover the cost of everybody else who's not paying

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for it, just like healthcare, just like Obamacare created the same situation. The people who are

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paying for health insurance or paying more to subsidize the ones who are not paying for it.

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This bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody and

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00:27:14,066 --> 00:27:18,726
off exchanges. We all saw what happened last time with the huge blowoffs. We had Celsius,

285
00:27:18,926 --> 00:27:24,366
FTX, all of the big dogs blowing up. Well, this time everybody's being smart and holding their

286
00:27:24,366 --> 00:27:29,286
Bitcoin in self-custody. This is why I'm going with the number one hardware wallet in the game.

287
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291
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292
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Use promo code green candle enough for me. Let's get back to the show.

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The reality or are getting subsidized to get coverage. It's just the reality of the,

294
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of the structured program. That's the way it is. So, but, um, you know, back to your point,

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it's lagging. It's always lagging. It's imperfect. It's always imperfect.

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The, these, these surveys are almost, they're almost comical. You know, you've got half the

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people don't don't even answer the surveys and then you know um the ones that do uh are giving

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data that may or may not be accurate and it's lagging terribly and then they go back and revise

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it the one thing that doesn't get revised is the unemployment number so even though you've got these

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you've got half a million jobs have been taken off the table from beginning of the year the

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The unemployment number doesn't get revised, just the number of jobs that they counted.

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And one of the big things that I always wonder about is there's a huge assumption in these

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numbers that's called the birth and death model.

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And that's the birth and death of companies.

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And so they assume that there are companies being created and companies that are being

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destroyed, shut down along the way.

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And those assumptions have massive numbers of jobs around them.

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And if that assumption is wrong, then it can sway by 50, 100,000 jobs either way easily. And so that's a big problem and they've got to figure that out.

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and then again the fed is lagging and to go back to the analogy of the wildfire if they get it wrong

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on one side where they are too easy they make it they make the the policy is too easy it's

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expansionary they print money they give it out they have low interest rates they have zerp zero

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interest rate policy it makes everything you know more expensive and there's more dollars out there

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there's more borrowing there's more dollars created through borrowing through the way the banking

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system works and it's created from the Fed and put out to the consumers. Hard to get that inflation

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rage under control, that fire. On the flip side, Powell would rather be overly tight. Why? Because

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it's easier to jumpstart the economy by implementing QE, by printing money and buying bonds and putting

317
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money out there that wasn't out there before and controlling that flow and lowering interest rates

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to ease, to get that the economy going, it's easier for him to do that than the flip side.

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And so he'd rather get in a situation where the Fed has to control the, just the steepness and

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the depth of that drawdown in recession by printing money and easing interest rates.

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So, and he's doing it in a lagging, in a way that's lagging the economy.

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And so that's what gives investors pause.

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And that's what worries them is that he's going to stay too tight for too long.

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And here we go again.

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The Fed's going to create another recession by, you know, keeping a lid on the money supply and on liquidity.

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now everybody thinks that once these interest rates cut everything in the market is going to

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be fine and dandy and then we're going to take off do you do you see it as that way as as well

328
00:31:35,966 --> 00:31:41,086
or is it because i mean i feel like when we have such a strong i guess we'll call it group think

329
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like everybody's agreeing on one thing once we cut interest rates bitcoin's going to take off

330
00:31:45,106 --> 00:31:51,666
everything in the market always does the opposite at least maybe initially so you know do you see it

331
00:31:51,666 --> 00:31:56,926
as that way as well? Like it's so clear cut that once the Fed, you know, cuts interest rates,

332
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everything will be, I guess, a little bit smoother or is there going to be some bumps along the road?

333
00:32:02,646 --> 00:32:08,666
Yeah, I think you're describing the market is forward looking and it's already priced in.

334
00:32:08,666 --> 00:32:13,946
And that's typically the case. So if you've got everybody is bullish, well, then you better get

335
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out because there's nobody left to buy. And so I don't believe that's the case because of the

336
00:32:19,626 --> 00:32:23,226
situation we're in here, Brandon, where it's, it's late summer. There's a lot of,

337
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there's, it's pretty quiet. Um, we've had this run of treasury companies that have been created.

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We can talk about that. Um, there's confusion around some of their strategies, uh, like micro

339
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strategy. Um, you know, that's been in the market today. There's, uh, there's, there's fear out

340
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there that the, you know, Bitcoin has touched all time high, it backed off. And I'm kind of

341
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looking at the chart over here as I'm looking at it, to me, it's great. I mean, it gives it an

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opportunity for us to go in and opportunistically buy some while everybody else is asleep and that's

343
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fine. If the Fed cuts rates, it's pricing to the market. The market will just kind of grind

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sideways here for a little bit, I think. If he comes out and he's extremely dovish, then the

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market would rip. If he sounds too dovish though, that he sounds like he's really worried that he's

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seeing some things that means that we're already in a recession, that would give me some discomfort

347
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and that would give investors discomfort that they'd say, oh no, he thinks we're going to hit

348
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the skids here. We're going to be in a recession that's bad. So we're in this funny period. It's

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kind of perverse, Brandon, that bad news is good news for the market and good news is bad news for

350
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the market in that if employment, if the employment rate goes down, jobs numbers are good, that's not

351
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good because the market wants more liquidity and they want the Fed to ease and vice versa.

352
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So I think 25 basis points is priced in. I think two cuts are priced into the market

353
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for the rest of the year.

354
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One here in September

355
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and then another one in October

356
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or December, somewhere in there.

357
00:34:23,946 --> 00:34:26,746
But there's two cuts basically have been priced in,

358
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maybe a little bit more.

359
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But that's it.

360
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If we get three cuts, the market will rip.

361
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If we get one cut, the market will sell off.

362
00:34:36,666 --> 00:34:39,046
It'll just, they'll reprice it.

363
00:34:39,046 --> 00:34:42,586
everything will get repriced off of that but right now that's where the market is telling you

364
00:34:42,586 --> 00:34:48,406
and that's interesting so you know then then that gets to the all-time highs that we've kind of

365
00:34:48,406 --> 00:34:53,426
hitting in and floating around I guess because you you've mentioned this a little bit earlier in

366
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our conversation how Bitcoin is showing I guess a little bit of the the tendency here right where

367
00:34:59,886 --> 00:35:06,386
you know it's the leading tech indicator um and you know whether the maxis want to agree with it

368
00:35:06,386 --> 00:35:11,426
not that's essentially what the market is showing but i mean the reality is like we've gone down

369
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maybe like four or five six percent from the all-time high and in bitcoin terms that's not

370
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really that much um you know so we're still kind of floating around that that all-time high but it

371
00:35:21,266 --> 00:35:26,146
seems like you know with the amount of buying that's coming on with these treasury companies

372
00:35:26,786 --> 00:35:32,786
the price just isn't isn't ripping so is it even though the these treasury companies are coming on

373
00:35:32,786 --> 00:35:35,826
Is it just not the volume needed just yet?

374
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Or is there still some whales or potentially other reasons,

375
00:35:39,726 --> 00:35:45,066
other factors that are going in that are causing the price not to start to rip just yet?

376
00:35:45,626 --> 00:35:46,926
Well, I mean, we've seen whales selling.

377
00:35:47,066 --> 00:36:00,971
We saw a big whale sell 80 Bitcoin just a couple of weeks ago Price you know that good news The question is are they selling to go fund of lifestyle that they held out for

378
00:36:01,571 --> 00:36:08,552
Which, hey, God bless, you know, if you have held on to a thousand Bitcoin for this long

379
00:36:08,552 --> 00:36:15,851
and you want to go monetize that 80,000 Bitcoin for this long and you want to go monetize that

380
00:36:15,851 --> 00:36:17,631
It's billions of dollars, you know?

381
00:36:18,552 --> 00:36:21,512
Yeah, I mean, okay.

382
00:36:22,171 --> 00:36:23,751
How can you fault that?

383
00:36:24,131 --> 00:36:27,971
Go buy your chateau or your yacht or whatever that you're looking for

384
00:36:27,971 --> 00:36:30,711
and fund that lifestyle that you've held out for.

385
00:36:30,931 --> 00:36:31,791
Great, whatever.

386
00:36:32,271 --> 00:36:32,931
No big deal.

387
00:36:34,251 --> 00:36:38,111
But I think that some of these whales that are selling are turning around

388
00:36:38,111 --> 00:36:43,851
and saying, they're like, look, I've had 100, 200,

389
00:36:43,851 --> 00:36:46,711
to whatever X on my money already.

390
00:36:47,571 --> 00:36:49,671
I want to get to, like right now,

391
00:36:50,492 --> 00:36:53,951
yeah, we may get a 10X in Bitcoin.

392
00:36:54,151 --> 00:36:55,731
I believe we get a 10X in Bitcoin

393
00:36:55,731 --> 00:36:57,591
over the next seven, eight years.

394
00:36:58,271 --> 00:37:01,431
That's nothing like they have experienced up to now.

395
00:37:02,111 --> 00:37:05,512
The OGs, the whales that have been around for a long time.

396
00:37:06,211 --> 00:37:09,211
And so I think some of them want to remain in Bitcoin,

397
00:37:09,671 --> 00:37:12,291
but they want to get a little bit more out of it

398
00:37:12,291 --> 00:37:16,651
in this space. And there's a way to do that. The way to do that is to buy these Bitcoin treasury

399
00:37:16,651 --> 00:37:26,311
companies because they'll give you what will be a multiple on that return, I believe.

400
00:37:27,091 --> 00:37:32,512
Now, not all of them, some of them, a handful of them will do very well, I think.

401
00:37:33,231 --> 00:37:39,492
That's my thesis. It's the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, my hedge fund. That's what we believe.

402
00:37:39,492 --> 00:37:42,151
And we're invested in some of these because we believe that.

403
00:37:42,291 --> 00:37:43,151
Not all of them.

404
00:37:43,512 --> 00:37:45,931
We're not invested in every single treasury company,

405
00:37:46,032 --> 00:37:48,691
but we're invested in a select number of them that we believe in.

406
00:37:50,391 --> 00:37:54,831
So I think that there's some rotation going there, Brandon.

407
00:37:54,951 --> 00:37:57,571
It's coming out of Bitcoin, going to these treasury companies,

408
00:37:57,671 --> 00:38:00,512
and it's being washed back into Bitcoin as it happens.

409
00:38:00,571 --> 00:38:05,131
That's why you're seeing the price kind of grind sideways, higher,

410
00:38:05,351 --> 00:38:06,711
a little bit lower, sideways.

411
00:38:06,711 --> 00:38:08,951
You know, it's kind of grinding here.

412
00:38:09,492 --> 00:38:19,971
from 100 to 120, you know, it's been in this range since May, basically, you know, it dipped down a

413
00:38:19,971 --> 00:38:27,651
little bit in June, but since May, it's been in that range. It was in the 100 to 110 level. And

414
00:38:27,651 --> 00:38:37,571
then it moved up in July from 110 to 120. It's been between there and 110, 111, somewhere in there

415
00:38:37,571 --> 00:38:40,052
since the beginning of July.

416
00:38:40,851 --> 00:38:43,391
And I think what you're seeing is this rotation

417
00:38:43,391 --> 00:38:46,811
out some OGs that are moving out of Bitcoin

418
00:38:46,811 --> 00:38:48,331
and into the treasury companies.

419
00:38:48,552 --> 00:38:50,631
And some of them are joining boards

420
00:38:50,631 --> 00:38:51,451
and doing that stuff

421
00:38:51,451 --> 00:38:53,552
and creating these treasury companies themselves.

422
00:38:53,751 --> 00:38:55,111
I mean, Adam Back is doing one.

423
00:38:56,191 --> 00:38:58,231
I don't, you know, good for him.

424
00:38:58,532 --> 00:38:59,631
You know, he's got,

425
00:39:00,032 --> 00:39:01,751
he's looking for new things to do.

426
00:39:02,251 --> 00:39:03,811
The guy has been doing this

427
00:39:03,811 --> 00:39:07,151
since the days of the message board

428
00:39:07,151 --> 00:39:15,992
with Satoshi. I mean, he's looking for creative ways to not just expand his wealth, but to expand

429
00:39:15,992 --> 00:39:24,512
the reach of Bitcoin in the community. And I've had long conversations with him. And so I think

430
00:39:24,512 --> 00:39:28,711
that some people know whether he's selling any Bitcoin to do it himself. I don't know. You know,

431
00:39:28,791 --> 00:39:33,992
I haven't spoken with him specifically about that, but I would think there are some who are doing

432
00:39:33,992 --> 00:39:40,631
that and i don't blame them and you know have at it it's uh that's why we call it that's the bitcoin

433
00:39:40,631 --> 00:39:46,151
is the best free market do what you want to do with it um we want to hold it that's my that's

434
00:39:46,151 --> 00:39:51,111
what i'm doing but you know um there are other things to do and that's why that's why we started

435
00:39:51,111 --> 00:39:56,391
that fund and that's that's uh and we're enjoying all this there's a massive amount of opportunity

436
00:39:56,391 --> 00:40:02,071
out there from our position yeah and i mean i definitely think that there there is and then

437
00:40:02,071 --> 00:40:10,391
And we've kind of seen this, we touched on it briefly, the uncorrelation, so to speak, of these Bitcoin treasury companies from Bitcoin.

438
00:40:10,391 --> 00:40:14,691
Or at least we had Bitcoin hit a massive all-time high.

439
00:40:14,791 --> 00:40:20,391
And I think I saw an account that tweeted out MicroStrategy was down 29%.

440
00:40:20,391 --> 00:40:28,311
um and uh you know we saw some some of these treasury companies be down as much as like 75 80

441
00:40:28,311 --> 00:40:34,851
percent um you know when bitcoin was hitting that those all-time highs um so I I guess the initial

442
00:40:34,851 --> 00:40:41,271
narrative was always that these treasury companies are at least micro strategy MSTR strategy B whatever

443
00:40:41,271 --> 00:40:48,111
you want to call it now uh is is like a two to five to eight you know x levered play on Bitcoin

444
00:40:48,111 --> 00:40:51,492
Why would you ever hold generational wealth on a piece of paper?

445
00:40:51,891 --> 00:40:52,871
It doesn't make sense.

446
00:40:53,191 --> 00:40:56,651
You need a foolproof solution and I've got it for you.

447
00:40:56,811 --> 00:41:00,911
You could get this as low as $25 and if you use promo code green candle,

448
00:41:01,012 --> 00:41:04,431
you can get 10% off being around for 12 years.

449
00:41:04,551 --> 00:41:08,551
They've engineered the perfect and most easy to use solution.

450
00:41:08,992 --> 00:41:12,371
I've partnered with CryptoSteel to offer for you guys just that.

451
00:41:12,591 --> 00:41:16,492
It is the cheapest and most secure way to store your C phrase.

452
00:41:16,492 --> 00:41:25,191
I don't know about you guys, but I don't have too many things where I think one ton is going to fall on this, but it could survive all of that and more.

453
00:41:25,871 --> 00:41:28,411
So go to CryptoSteel.com.

454
00:41:28,492 --> 00:41:30,311
You can use promo code GreenCandle.

455
00:41:30,492 --> 00:41:35,111
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456
00:41:35,551 --> 00:41:40,431
So go ahead and protect your generational wealth and do it with CryptoSteel.

457
00:41:40,731 --> 00:41:41,231
All right.

458
00:41:41,311 --> 00:41:42,111
Enough from me.

459
00:41:42,231 --> 00:41:43,071
Back to the show.

460
00:41:43,071 --> 00:41:50,411
now it seems like that narrative has been shifting a little bit as of late where people

461
00:41:50,411 --> 00:41:55,671
are more tentative on that and saying you know some of these treasury companies are not going to

462
00:41:55,671 --> 00:42:01,851
to make it um now how do you view and i guess evaluate some of these are you looking at them

463
00:42:01,851 --> 00:42:06,571
more as like you like that the ones that actually have an underlying business outside of the

464
00:42:06,571 --> 00:42:12,171
holding strategy or do you like maybe the ceo's ability to raise money how are you kind of looking

465
00:42:12,171 --> 00:42:18,111
at these? And why do you think that there is, I guess, seemingly a disconnect, at least in the

466
00:42:18,111 --> 00:42:24,271
market in the short term right now from these treasury companies to Bitcoin? Yeah. So it's a

467
00:42:24,271 --> 00:42:31,291
good question. So first of all, the MNAV that you're talking about, the multiple on the underlying

468
00:42:31,291 --> 00:42:37,271
Bitcoin on their balance sheet, that's MNAV, multiple on the NAV of the Bitcoin on the balance

469
00:42:37,271 --> 00:42:44,711
sheet. You know, we've seen these things fluctuate around. We started buying MicroStrategy when the

470
00:42:44,711 --> 00:42:51,371
MNAV was 1.2. But we talked to them, we, you know, we talked to Michael and we talked to Sharish,

471
00:42:51,532 --> 00:42:58,851
their treasurer, who helped implement this strategy, was spearheading it for them.

472
00:43:00,811 --> 00:43:05,071
We understood what they were trying to do and what their goal was and what their goal is.

473
00:43:05,071 --> 00:43:09,891
And so, you know, we still believe that.

474
00:43:10,971 --> 00:43:13,311
He's created all kinds of strategies around it.

475
00:43:13,512 --> 00:43:19,751
So micro strategies is kind of a special situation because they're so far ahead of everybody else.

476
00:43:19,911 --> 00:43:22,351
They've got over 600,000 Bitcoin now.

477
00:43:23,111 --> 00:43:30,631
And so, and they've got access to capital markets that other companies just don't have.

478
00:43:31,331 --> 00:43:32,571
Not all of them.

479
00:43:32,671 --> 00:43:33,351
Some of them do.

480
00:43:33,351 --> 00:43:44,371
You know, CEP21 certainly does with the involvement of Canter and Jack Mahler's new play there.

481
00:43:44,831 --> 00:43:51,731
But there's all kinds of different ways that these companies can create the ability to buy more Bitcoin.

482
00:43:51,731 --> 00:44:02,871
And it's using converts, which can actively dampen the volatility.

483
00:44:03,411 --> 00:44:05,131
Well, it actually dampens.

484
00:44:05,331 --> 00:44:17,971
It holds the price of the stock down because as you issue a convert, there are convert arbitrage traders that will buy the convert and then short the stock in order to delta hedge it.

485
00:44:17,971 --> 00:44:24,411
and like what's called the optimal hedge around owning that convertible bond

486
00:44:24,411 --> 00:44:26,631
because it can be converted into stock at a certain price.

487
00:44:26,671 --> 00:44:27,871
So they'll trade around that.

488
00:44:28,951 --> 00:44:32,451
Or you could do preferred shares like MicroStrategy is doing.

489
00:44:32,851 --> 00:44:35,311
And that is not dilutive to the stock.

490
00:44:35,411 --> 00:44:39,271
It doesn't put pressure on the stock because you're basically saying

491
00:44:39,271 --> 00:44:43,591
that we're going to pay you a dividend off of the future,

492
00:44:44,171 --> 00:44:47,111
basically the future price of Bitcoin.

493
00:44:47,971 --> 00:44:50,611
And so that's a special case.

494
00:44:51,091 --> 00:45:00,851
But there are other cases like MetaPlanet came out and was basically the only proxy for Bitcoin in all of Japan.

495
00:45:01,512 --> 00:45:11,611
So if you were a retirement account or an investor that wanted to buy Bitcoin but couldn't get it into your brokerage, you could buy MetaPlanet and get a proxy to that.

496
00:45:11,611 --> 00:45:15,111
And now they're doing a similar playbook to MicroStrategy.

497
00:45:15,111 --> 00:45:22,851
and so they're able to create a way to arbitrage capital markets.

498
00:45:23,431 --> 00:45:26,571
You're basically, you're borrowing money in yen

499
00:45:26,571 --> 00:45:28,671
and you're buying Bitcoin with it.

500
00:45:29,091 --> 00:45:30,032
It's an arbitrage.

501
00:45:30,651 --> 00:45:34,431
And so they will warrant a different multiple.

502
00:45:35,391 --> 00:45:39,451
They have a different kind of moat there

503
00:45:39,451 --> 00:45:43,351
because there's not another proxy for buying Bitcoin there like that.

504
00:45:43,351 --> 00:46:08,691
So that's a strong moat. It could change. We don't know if and when, but that's more of a regulatory issue. Then you've got the same thing in other areas, whether it's Brazil or Canada or the UK, you've got similar situations. And so there are companies that were invested in those areas because of that.

505
00:46:08,691 --> 00:46:16,751
then you you get the question of what you're saying is what m nav makes sense and it is

506
00:46:16,751 --> 00:46:21,791
different for each one and it is and it really depends on a lot of the factors that you named

507
00:46:21,791 --> 00:46:31,492
do they have a moat is it a geographical regulatory moat is it uh is it that they have access to

508
00:46:31,492 --> 00:46:36,951
great access to capital to expand their balance sheet um you know are they do they have

509
00:46:36,951 --> 00:46:48,471
an original investor and partner in their venture like CEP does with Tether,

510
00:46:49,191 --> 00:46:50,591
21 does with Tether.

511
00:46:50,771 --> 00:46:52,691
Is there something like that going on?

512
00:46:55,012 --> 00:46:56,811
Who is the CEO?

513
00:46:57,251 --> 00:46:58,651
Can they generate enough interest?

514
00:46:58,651 --> 00:47:05,211
And can they lead that strategy, that Bitcoin treasury strategy to do that?

515
00:47:05,211 --> 00:47:21,111
That's another question mark. And we believe that these things are going to settle in somewhere around one to two and a half MNAV for virtually all of them. There may be outliers like Metaplanet that will be higher.

516
00:47:21,111 --> 00:47:29,171
but what we're seeing here in my opinion Brandon is people figuring that out and trying to shake

517
00:47:29,171 --> 00:47:34,492
out who should be trading at what MNAV according to what they believe they can how much Bitcoin

518
00:47:34,492 --> 00:47:41,631
yield they can generate meaning how how much of an MNAV should they trade at because of how much

519
00:47:41,631 --> 00:47:46,911
more Bitcoin they can create in their balance sheet per shareholder and so but we're watching

520
00:47:46,911 --> 00:47:54,391
that closely and um and it's going to play out here now as far as our fund is concerned we're

521
00:47:54,391 --> 00:47:59,071
now out there buying things that are trading at eight nine ten m nav like that doesn't make any

522
00:47:59,071 --> 00:48:06,811
sense for us being a hedge fund and we can um we're structured in a way that we can invest in

523
00:48:06,811 --> 00:48:11,512
these before they come to market so they're private deals they're pipes they're you know

524
00:48:11,512 --> 00:48:22,871
private investments before they hit the market. They're pre-IPO, they're pre-merger of SPACs.

525
00:48:23,391 --> 00:48:28,431
And so we're getting these things much closer to one MNAV, in some cases less than one,

526
00:48:28,951 --> 00:48:34,131
which is basically you're buying Bitcoin for less than the price it's trading here.

527
00:48:34,271 --> 00:48:40,992
And so, and you're taking the risk of that company executing their plan to do that.

528
00:48:40,992 --> 00:48:51,691
But we're fortunate that we're able to get some of these companies in the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund because we're a hedge fund.

529
00:48:51,811 --> 00:48:52,791
We're not a venture fund.

530
00:48:53,611 --> 00:48:55,771
We're structured as a straight hedge fund.

531
00:48:56,492 --> 00:48:58,851
And we're doing things like this because we can.

532
00:48:58,851 --> 00:49:02,871
We can buy these things for one or less than one MNAV or just above one MNAV.

533
00:49:03,071 --> 00:49:08,731
And they're trading at much, much, much higher multiples on paper right now.

534
00:49:08,731 --> 00:49:12,851
that's an advantage of being structured the way we are,

535
00:49:12,911 --> 00:49:15,611
that we can do anything, public, private, early stage, late stage.

536
00:49:15,651 --> 00:49:16,211
It doesn't matter.

537
00:49:16,311 --> 00:49:17,711
As long as it's Bitcoin related,

538
00:49:17,931 --> 00:49:22,071
we have the structure that we can be involved.

539
00:49:22,351 --> 00:49:25,012
And so we're kind of fortunate that way.

540
00:49:25,651 --> 00:49:27,711
And that's a little bit of our edge.

541
00:49:28,631 --> 00:49:32,351
And cautiously, we're still approaching that.

542
00:49:32,351 --> 00:49:35,471
We see a lot of opportunity in this still,

543
00:49:35,471 --> 00:49:40,171
a whole lot of opportunity in this space still and a lot of runway there.

544
00:49:40,611 --> 00:49:47,471
But again, we're not just out there buying these things at public MNAV prices by rote.

545
00:49:47,471 --> 00:49:51,371
We're very careful and strategic in the way that we're doing it.

546
00:49:52,251 --> 00:49:56,671
Now, you said something interesting here where I've heard you and Michael Saylor,

547
00:49:57,091 --> 00:49:59,731
for some reason, always point out MetaPlanet, right?

548
00:49:59,831 --> 00:50:05,351
I mean, it seems like in reality, they're like the seventh or eighth.

549
00:50:05,471 --> 00:50:11,551
biggest holder. But everybody always talks about MetaPlanet. Is it something unique with Japan's

550
00:50:11,551 --> 00:50:17,911
market? And if so, why do you think that Michael Saylor has mentioned that of all companies,

551
00:50:18,111 --> 00:50:25,671
the only player that could potentially catch us would be MetaPlanet and seemingly that he's

552
00:50:25,671 --> 00:50:31,171
hinting that's because of Japan. But I'd like to hear your viewpoint on it.

553
00:50:31,171 --> 00:50:36,891
Yeah, I mean, look, he knows Dylan LeClaire.

554
00:50:37,331 --> 00:50:38,811
Dylan, actually, I was there.

555
00:50:39,591 --> 00:50:45,992
I was standing with Dylan when he was telling me about being approached by MetaPlanet and thinking about doing this.

556
00:50:46,051 --> 00:50:49,651
He actually went up to Michael Saylor and said, this is what I'm thinking about doing.

557
00:50:49,751 --> 00:50:55,351
And Michael literally told me, go for it, you know, right there at this conference.

558
00:50:55,731 --> 00:51:00,371
And so, and it is structural.

559
00:51:00,371 --> 00:51:07,731
It is regional. It is regulatory that they have this advantage there.

560
00:51:07,891 --> 00:51:14,532
But they also have – they've got good management to execute on that plan.

561
00:51:15,891 --> 00:51:18,471
Will they catch MicroStrategy?

562
00:51:18,691 --> 00:51:20,971
I don't believe that. I don't believe they will.

563
00:51:21,271 --> 00:51:25,231
MicroStrategy is just so far ahead that I don't see anybody catching them, truly.

564
00:51:25,231 --> 00:51:33,171
but I do see a handful of players that will be in that top tier and Metaplanet is one of them,

565
00:51:33,351 --> 00:51:39,391
you know? Um, so, but there are other ones, you know, there are other ones that are out there,

566
00:51:39,391 --> 00:51:44,111
including, um, ones that I probably shouldn't talk about cause they're not public yet. So,

567
00:51:44,111 --> 00:51:52,811
uh, there, but we do believe that there's, there, the, it's not just management. It's not just

568
00:51:52,811 --> 00:51:58,231
structure. It's like the whole package. You've got to be able to execute on this in a way that

569
00:51:58,231 --> 00:52:04,711
continues to give your shareholders trust that you're going to execute the plan you say you're

570
00:52:04,711 --> 00:52:13,532
going to execute because they're giving you a premium to your price on the expectation

571
00:52:13,532 --> 00:52:16,891
and the agreement that you're going to do the plan that you say you're going to do.

572
00:52:16,891 --> 00:52:25,551
yeah so then all right so if it's uh not if no other public company uh you know what do you think

573
00:52:25,551 --> 00:52:32,251
of i guess the differences between like a meta planet and say a 21 which seemingly you know

574
00:52:32,251 --> 00:52:36,951
their strategy at 21 is just like a bitcoin holding company where meta planet although it

575
00:52:36,951 --> 00:52:42,251
was failing they had you know the hotel businesses underneath micro strategy had the you know the

576
00:52:42,251 --> 00:52:49,731
SaaS business underneath. Do you think that there's a major difference in this? Similar

577
00:52:49,731 --> 00:52:57,852
Scientific, for example, has the healthcare type of angle to it. Is there different evaluations,

578
00:52:58,031 --> 00:53:02,571
you think, for companies that have this underlying business and are putting Bitcoin on the balance

579
00:53:02,571 --> 00:53:09,891
sheet opposed to just these strict Bitcoin treasury companies, it seems? Yeah. Well,

580
00:53:09,891 --> 00:53:17,971
Well, there's going to be a maturation, maturity process here in all of these companies.

581
00:53:18,391 --> 00:53:21,291
And in the companies who do add Bitcoin to their balance sheet.

582
00:53:21,411 --> 00:53:22,611
So you hit on something that's important.

583
00:53:23,151 --> 00:53:25,111
Let's kind of unpack this.

584
00:53:26,651 --> 00:53:27,051
21.

585
00:53:27,571 --> 00:53:38,071
Okay, so MicroStrategy, strategy, they basically said they're executing a financial engineering strategy to get more Bitcoin on the balance sheet for their shareholders.

586
00:53:38,071 --> 00:53:39,671
That's all they've said so far.

587
00:53:39,891 --> 00:53:43,751
I do believe that they're going to get big enough that they can do other things with that Bitcoin.

588
00:53:44,911 --> 00:54:01,757
They have not laid out a plan for that yet Michael a smart guy He going to figure out ways that they can capitalize that and keep growing this company He wants to eventually be the biggest company in the world Why not And he eventually will be if he sticks with the strategy and Bitcoin

589
00:54:01,757 --> 00:54:07,337
does what we think it's going to do. 21 explicitly came out and said they're going to be a Bitcoin

590
00:54:07,337 --> 00:54:12,237
finance company. They're going to structure products around it, lending products, collateralized

591
00:54:12,237 --> 00:54:17,517
products, you know, so that is different. That is what they're headed to do. That's their goal.

592
00:54:17,857 --> 00:54:23,637
It's a different strategy. Metaplan is much along, much more along the lines of, of a Japanese

593
00:54:23,637 --> 00:54:29,597
version of strategy, of micro strategy, doing the same kind of financial engineering. And then you've

594
00:54:29,597 --> 00:54:35,477
got, you know, you've got other companies that are, are looking to use cash flows to fund this

595
00:54:35,477 --> 00:54:40,857
Bitcoin treasury. This is, this is really important. And this is, this is something that we have not

596
00:54:40,857 --> 00:54:48,457
seen be rewarded yet, which is real companies with real cash flows using those cash flows to

597
00:54:48,457 --> 00:54:56,557
buy Bitcoin and add to their treasury. That has not been rewarded yet. The current reward is

598
00:54:56,557 --> 00:55:03,937
financially engineered Wall Street out of dollars to use those dollars to put into Bitcoin.

599
00:55:03,937 --> 00:55:10,577
And so arbitrage that, that capital market, that's been the big play so far.

600
00:55:10,837 --> 00:55:30,857
I do believe that eventually we get to this point, Brandon, where people realize that the best play long term, once this has been kind of soaked up, the capital markets play, the arbitrage play, it's going to be using cash flows to buy Bitcoin and put it on your treasury.

601
00:55:30,857 --> 00:55:39,377
ultimately the ultimate goal you know um the ultimate not goal the ultimate i think uh

602
00:55:39,377 --> 00:55:47,497
sign of maturity of of this space is when you have companies that are that are s p 500 companies

603
00:55:47,497 --> 00:55:55,637
that are not just the apples and microsoft's and um and uh googles of the world but eventually

604
00:55:55,637 --> 00:56:01,757
they are doing this where they are cash cows. You're creating billions of dollars and billions

605
00:56:01,757 --> 00:56:04,977
of dollars and they're turning around and buying billions of dollars of Bitcoin with that.

606
00:56:06,177 --> 00:56:13,377
I believe that's a future, but that's a way off. In that time between now and then,

607
00:56:13,417 --> 00:56:18,957
you're going to see smaller companies. You're going to see whether they're REITs or they're

608
00:56:18,957 --> 00:56:32,317
other types of cash generating companies, smaller companies that are more, they're using their cash

609
00:56:32,317 --> 00:56:43,597
flows to buy the Bitcoin much like you would see something like the playbook of a Warren Buffett

610
00:56:43,597 --> 00:56:47,037
where he used cash flows to buy companies.

611
00:56:47,717 --> 00:56:49,457
Well, he used cash flows to buy Bitcoin.

612
00:56:50,037 --> 00:56:54,977
So it's that kind of model eventually to grow your Bitcoin treasury.

613
00:56:55,657 --> 00:57:03,277
And then the ultimate end game is to protect your hard-earned money

614
00:57:03,277 --> 00:57:06,877
by putting it in Bitcoin and protect your treasury.

615
00:57:07,377 --> 00:57:10,157
Not by buying bonds, but by buying Bitcoin

616
00:57:10,157 --> 00:57:12,957
because bonds will be melted away with extreme inflation

617
00:57:12,957 --> 00:57:14,737
and can be rapidly.

618
00:57:15,077 --> 00:57:16,237
So you have to be careful of those.

619
00:57:16,897 --> 00:57:19,797
So long-term bonds, like long duration bonds.

620
00:57:21,037 --> 00:57:25,397
So I think that's how we mature in this industry.

621
00:57:25,557 --> 00:57:27,577
So that's why we believe that there's a long,

622
00:57:27,577 --> 00:57:31,157
long, long runway here for Bitcoin

623
00:57:31,157 --> 00:57:34,197
and the expansion of understanding it.

624
00:57:34,517 --> 00:57:36,257
And that's really where this comes out,

625
00:57:36,637 --> 00:57:40,737
where a broad set of investors and executives

626
00:57:40,737 --> 00:57:42,577
understand Bitcoin enough to know

627
00:57:42,577 --> 00:57:46,417
that it's the ultimate store of value and they should be putting part of their treasury if not

628
00:57:46,417 --> 00:57:52,497
all of it in bitcoin eventually um that's a ways off again but i think that's where we're headed

629
00:57:53,777 --> 00:57:58,177
yeah and but something that worries me with all of this right is like you you know you're

630
00:57:58,177 --> 00:58:02,817
describing the financial engineering and i like kind of the way you put that where these companies

631
00:58:02,817 --> 00:58:08,017
are utilizing wall street and you know the traditional financial products to essentially

632
00:58:08,017 --> 00:58:13,697
put more bitcoin on their balance sheet and utilizing basically like a group of people

633
00:58:13,697 --> 00:58:18,817
and making it a business and getting a big loan so they could buy more bitcoin quicker than

634
00:58:18,817 --> 00:58:25,617
you know the average joe really could now you know with that it seems like all this debt it's

635
00:58:25,617 --> 00:58:32,417
just kind of stacking up on these you know utilizing the debt the debt markets the traditional

636
00:58:32,417 --> 00:58:37,937
financial tools to buy more bitcoin is almost like on a house of cards where if we do have this big

637
00:58:37,937 --> 00:58:44,097
downturn that this could be kind of like the spark of you know maybe not to the extent of an ftx but

638
00:58:44,097 --> 00:58:48,417
maybe you know maybe we have enough of these companies coming in and just being kind of

639
00:58:48,417 --> 00:58:54,897
irresponsible with uh the amount of debt that is is just going to be accumulated to buy bitcoin now

640
00:58:55,537 --> 00:59:01,937
is that a possibility in your mind or is there just not enough money being lent out for this to

641
00:59:01,937 --> 00:59:07,217
be you know i mean although we see the billions it's you know in the grand scheme of things is it

642
00:59:07,217 --> 00:59:13,137
is it enough to kind of cause this i guess quote unquote black swan type of event yeah no i think

643
00:59:13,137 --> 00:59:18,897
um it's a good question and it's a lot of fear out there about this but the reality is like

644
00:59:18,897 --> 00:59:26,417
meta micro strategy is only you know 20 levered um so you could have an 80 drawdown in bitcoin

645
00:59:26,417 --> 00:59:36,897
just on that math alone um but the reality is that his interest payments on his preferreds his

646
00:59:36,897 --> 00:59:41,937
um you know the maturity of those converts the converts are not even they he doesn't have to pay

647
00:59:41,937 --> 00:59:51,057
interest on those zero zero percent converts so um but he he doesn't have to retire those uh or pay

648
00:59:51,057 --> 00:59:59,137
for them all at once it's a ladder you know a time ladder um so that doesn't that doesn't worry me at

649
00:59:59,137 --> 01:00:06,177
all uh people talk about strategy being oh so leverage so leverage like it would be even if it

650
01:00:06,177 --> 01:00:12,777
It did get to a point where he needed to pay down some of the debt because it's retiring.

651
01:00:13,997 --> 01:00:15,737
It's maturing.

652
01:00:17,017 --> 01:00:18,977
And the capital markets are closed.

653
01:00:19,137 --> 01:00:20,777
He could sell some Bitcoin to do that.

654
01:00:20,857 --> 01:00:25,337
And it wouldn't be that big of a deal compared to how much Bitcoin he owns.

655
01:00:25,337 --> 01:00:31,797
And this time ladder, the way they strategically, that's why they call it their company strategy now.

656
01:00:31,797 --> 01:00:42,817
They strategically created a situation where they wouldn't be overrun with a tsunami of capital needs.

657
01:00:43,477 --> 01:00:49,037
So that's intelligent financial engineering.

658
01:00:50,437 --> 01:00:56,297
We are seeing some that are a little bit more out there on the risk curve that we have not gotten comfort with.

659
01:00:56,877 --> 01:00:58,557
So we don't do those.

660
01:00:59,277 --> 01:01:00,497
They're not huge.

661
01:01:00,497 --> 01:01:01,137
They're small.

662
01:01:01,797 --> 01:01:21,657
And some of them will blow up because they get over their ski tips and they need liquidity. They can't have access to the capital markets where they have to sell their Bitcoin. And then it kind of feeds on itself where their MNAV goes down and then they have to sell, you know, a certain, they wind up selling more than they wanted to. They don't have access to capital markets.

663
01:01:21,657 --> 01:01:28,177
that could happen to some of these. And I expect it to happen to, you know, a handful of them,

664
01:01:28,177 --> 01:01:34,337
but I don't think it's, it's a situation like you're describing because the truth is the reality

665
01:01:34,337 --> 01:01:40,697
is that, you know, they aren't stacking debt on debt on debt to do this. The biggest ones,

666
01:01:40,697 --> 01:01:45,717
they're just not, they're not levered the way that people are feared or that it may be painted

667
01:01:45,717 --> 01:01:52,157
in the press. It's not true. So I'm not particularly worried about that, at least

668
01:01:52,157 --> 01:02:00,077
the way the market is structured today and the way we're seeing these companies buy Bitcoin and

669
01:02:00,077 --> 01:02:06,317
financially engineer it today. Could it get worse in the future? Sure. But I think today we're okay.

670
01:02:07,757 --> 01:02:12,057
Yeah, it's just a bunch of FUD, right, James? I mean, it's like every single Bitcoin bull run,

671
01:02:12,057 --> 01:02:13,537
We always get some new FUD.

672
01:02:13,737 --> 01:02:19,257
So, I mean, I guess this is the newest FUD that we're having here.

673
01:02:19,597 --> 01:02:22,057
So, you know, we were talking a little bit about it previously,

674
01:02:22,897 --> 01:02:26,977
but the Fed cutting interest rates and kind of seeing it, you know,

675
01:02:27,057 --> 01:02:31,877
Q3, Q4 is generally when Bitcoin really starts to take off here.

676
01:02:32,097 --> 01:02:34,877
You know, I mean, November, you know, we got Moontober,

677
01:02:35,037 --> 01:02:37,877
all those kind of memes that they're already throwing around.

678
01:02:37,997 --> 01:02:39,237
And it seems like that's going to be a lot.

679
01:02:39,237 --> 01:02:40,657
There's a reason for it, but yeah, there's a reason for it.

680
01:02:40,657 --> 01:02:41,517
We'll get into it, but go ahead.

681
01:02:41,597 --> 01:02:41,717
Yeah.

682
01:02:42,057 --> 01:02:45,977
yeah so i mean that well then let's get into it because it seems like that's going to be lining up

683
01:02:45,977 --> 01:02:53,497
with the fed cutting interest rates so yeah yeah are we going to be taking off towards the end of

684
01:02:53,497 --> 01:02:58,057
the year like how do you see the rest of this playing out and you know on top of that everybody

685
01:02:58,057 --> 01:03:02,697
always says the four-year cycles it seems like because of this bigger money in here i'm curious

686
01:03:02,697 --> 01:03:08,697
for what you think of as this you know quote-unquote asset is developing you know bigger

687
01:03:08,697 --> 01:03:13,657
market cap and everything, do you see the volatility going down in the four-year cycles

688
01:03:13,657 --> 01:03:17,177
period kind of ending, or do you see it kind of the other way?

689
01:03:17,177 --> 01:03:26,377
Well, we've hit our all-time high just a few days ago. And so now you're getting into the end of

690
01:03:26,377 --> 01:03:31,337
August, you got the jacks in the hole, and then you've got the Fed meeting in September.

691
01:03:32,377 --> 01:03:38,537
On top of that, Brandon, you have what's called, it's the fourth quarter dress up. It's like these

692
01:03:38,537 --> 01:03:44,197
window dressing of fund managers, investment managers, CIOs. They've got to get themselves

693
01:03:44,197 --> 01:03:48,897
positioned, their portfolio positioned for payout at the end of the year. They get paid bonuses.

694
01:03:49,137 --> 01:03:54,277
This bull run, I'm looking for ways to stack Bitcoin in my sleep and mining has always caught

695
01:03:54,277 --> 01:04:00,717
my eye. I've partnered with the guys over at Simple Mining to help you do just that. I don't

696
01:04:00,717 --> 01:04:05,457
recommend anything that I don't use personally. So I've got a machine up and running with them

697
01:04:05,457 --> 01:04:10,937
right this second. And they've even opened the facility up so anyone can go and visit.

698
01:04:11,657 --> 01:04:17,377
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699
01:04:17,377 --> 01:04:22,537
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700
01:04:22,937 --> 01:04:27,717
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701
01:04:27,717 --> 01:04:34,637
head on over to simplemining.io slash greencandle to get this exclusive offer and learn about the

702
01:04:34,637 --> 01:04:40,437
potential tax benefits that you can get from mining with simple mining. All right, enough from

703
01:04:40,437 --> 01:04:47,477
me. Let's get back to the show. And so part of their review is how did their portfolio do?

704
01:04:47,997 --> 01:04:53,517
What names do they have in it? How did those do? And what are the prospects going forward for the

705
01:04:53,517 --> 01:04:59,637
portfolio? What are they seeing? How are they positioned? And so did you cut your losers? Are

706
01:04:59,637 --> 01:05:00,557
Are you adding to your winners?

707
01:05:00,657 --> 01:05:01,657
Like, how are you doing here?

708
01:05:02,637 --> 01:05:08,897
And so you get a lot of that in September, a little bit in October, but a lot of it is

709
01:05:08,897 --> 01:05:13,137
September because, you know, that they want to be positioned for that fourth quarter,

710
01:05:13,637 --> 01:05:14,437
that last quarter.

711
01:05:14,437 --> 01:05:20,637
And so September, October, you get a lot of movement in, in, in these big names because

712
01:05:20,637 --> 01:05:27,857
they had the fund managers, not just the hedge fund managers, but the, the, the massive

713
01:05:27,857 --> 01:05:34,657
investment managers like the, you know, the Guggenheims and the, and the PIMCOs and the,

714
01:05:35,217 --> 01:05:40,437
the Calpers and the, the Texas teachers of the world, or they're moving this stuff around.

715
01:05:41,357 --> 01:05:45,717
And so you're going to have some of that. So what do I think is going to happen? We're going to get

716
01:05:45,717 --> 01:05:50,637
that Fed meeting. We're going to get the September. I think we're going to probably get a 25 basis

717
01:05:50,637 --> 01:05:56,097
point cut, all things being equal. And if the data comes in benign between now and then, anything

718
01:05:56,097 --> 01:06:00,517
could change, the data could change in a heartbeat, as we've seen, especially with the tariff stuff.

719
01:06:01,257 --> 01:06:07,417
But all things being equal, as of today, I see a 25 basis point cut and I see the market kind of,

720
01:06:07,417 --> 01:06:14,697
you know, either shrugging or selling off on that and that being an opportunity. Because you're

721
01:06:14,697 --> 01:06:22,637
right, once we go back and expand this liquidity and Bitcoin lags that expansion by 8 to 12 weeks

722
01:06:22,637 --> 01:06:25,517
and that expansion continues.

723
01:06:25,657 --> 01:06:27,877
Well, Bitcoin is going to continue to expand as well.

724
01:06:28,177 --> 01:06:31,397
And I expect it to be in the, you know,

725
01:06:31,497 --> 01:06:34,917
$150,000, $180,000 range toward year end.

726
01:06:35,017 --> 01:06:36,737
I think I just saw the mooch.

727
01:06:36,817 --> 01:06:41,437
He was on, he said $180,000 to $200,000 on CNBC or something.

728
01:06:41,637 --> 01:06:44,637
And so I'm kind of in the same camp with him.

729
01:06:45,157 --> 01:06:46,637
It all has to do with liquidity,

730
01:06:47,097 --> 01:06:48,877
the expansion of the money supply

731
01:06:48,877 --> 01:06:51,857
and expansion of liquidity, not just M2,

732
01:06:51,857 --> 01:06:58,037
but credit. And, and Michael Howell does a lot of great work on this. I've talked with him

733
01:06:58,037 --> 01:07:03,977
great length about this. Actually, there's a video all about it on, on my, on my substack

734
01:07:03,977 --> 01:07:08,977
that I talked to him about it. And, and we talked through how he looks at this and how, how,

735
01:07:09,177 --> 01:07:16,857
what he expects. His view is, you know, it's, it is it's matured since then, or it's, it's,

736
01:07:16,857 --> 01:07:21,997
you know, moved a little bit, but then you can see it on his newsletter, but you know,

737
01:07:22,037 --> 01:07:27,157
long and short of it is, I believe that liquidity expands through the end of the year and into next

738
01:07:27,157 --> 01:07:32,617
year and Bitcoin lags that, which means that Bitcoin is going to continue. It's going to,

739
01:07:32,617 --> 01:07:37,937
it's going to go break this last all time high, and it's going to go to 150, 180, or maybe even

740
01:07:37,937 --> 01:07:45,077
higher before the end of the year and, and could hit in the low twos into next year before we,

741
01:07:45,077 --> 01:07:50,577
We see a kind of drying up of liquidity.

742
01:07:51,217 --> 01:07:53,297
And that's what, so we're watching for that.

743
01:07:53,737 --> 01:07:56,257
I don't know if it happens, but we're watching for it.

744
01:07:56,337 --> 01:07:58,097
Those are the signals we're looking for.

745
01:07:58,597 --> 01:08:00,777
And that's kind of where I'm, I hate price predictions,

746
01:08:01,057 --> 01:08:04,377
but if I'm looking at liquidity and I'm looking at the markets,

747
01:08:04,377 --> 01:08:05,957
I'm looking at what to expect.

748
01:08:06,277 --> 01:08:08,657
That's kind of where my mind is today.

749
01:08:10,157 --> 01:08:10,557
Gotcha.

750
01:08:10,757 --> 01:08:12,097
And yeah, I mean, that makes sense, right?

751
01:08:12,137 --> 01:08:14,477
Everything can seemingly change.

752
01:08:14,477 --> 01:08:19,897
And it seems like a lot has changed kind of in the adoption cycle, so to speak.

753
01:08:20,017 --> 01:08:24,697
So I know you work a little bit with Mark Moss and the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund.

754
01:08:24,837 --> 01:08:29,617
He, when I had him on, lined out something very distinctly to me.

755
01:08:29,777 --> 01:08:38,177
And it kind of stuck with me about the 50-year period or cycles of how Bitcoin could potentially develop because it's happened in history.

756
01:08:38,177 --> 01:08:41,457
The first 10 years is retail.

757
01:08:41,877 --> 01:08:43,937
Second 10 years is institution.

758
01:08:43,937 --> 01:08:48,917
third 10 years is governments, then we get to maybe a medium of exchange in that fourth year.

759
01:08:49,017 --> 01:08:54,457
And then in the fifth year, that's when we'll get to that unit of account. Do you see it kind of

760
01:08:54,457 --> 01:09:00,397
playing out that way as well? And if that is the case, then do you see us kind of, I guess,

761
01:09:00,437 --> 01:09:06,257
almost delaying the governmental adoption here? Because, you know, it seems like at first when

762
01:09:06,257 --> 01:09:10,877
Trump got into office, it was very gung ho. And we're going to be, you know, the crypto leader

763
01:09:10,877 --> 01:09:13,937
of the world and Bitcoin strategic reserve.

764
01:09:14,117 --> 01:09:16,837
And then it always seems like they're kind of backtracking

765
01:09:16,837 --> 01:09:19,157
every time I hear them in the news following that.

766
01:09:19,337 --> 01:09:21,117
So how do you see kind of the development

767
01:09:21,117 --> 01:09:23,157
of just Bitcoin taking it over?

768
01:09:23,237 --> 01:09:25,217
Because it seems like we're in the Bitcoinization

769
01:09:25,217 --> 01:09:26,677
of finance right now.

770
01:09:27,277 --> 01:09:31,257
Yeah, I think that Mark's a smart guy

771
01:09:31,257 --> 01:09:35,077
and that makes perfect sense.

772
01:09:35,717 --> 01:09:37,377
And what makes most sense to me

773
01:09:37,377 --> 01:09:38,777
is that this is a long timeline.

774
01:09:38,777 --> 01:09:42,537
I don't think that we have a hyper Bitcoinization in the next 10 years.

775
01:09:42,637 --> 01:09:43,677
I just don't think that.

776
01:09:44,437 --> 01:09:51,677
I think people, you know, why we exchange dollars is not because it's backed by anything.

777
01:09:51,797 --> 01:09:56,857
It's just, it's only, it's only backed by the belief that if I take a dollar from you,

778
01:09:56,877 --> 01:09:59,717
I can go use it somewhere else and someone else is going to take it too.

779
01:10:00,317 --> 01:10:01,037
That's it.

780
01:10:01,577 --> 01:10:02,477
Simple as that.

781
01:10:02,757 --> 01:10:04,637
And so it's just confidence in it.

782
01:10:04,637 --> 01:10:11,077
The confidence in the US dollar is by far greater than any other currency in the entire world.

783
01:10:11,237 --> 01:10:13,177
There's nothing that has more confidence in it.

784
01:10:13,797 --> 01:10:18,837
I mean, even if you take gold, like I can't just go spend gold somewhere.

785
01:10:19,037 --> 01:10:24,877
Someone's got to figure out how much it's worth and their dollars or their, you know, yen or their one.

786
01:10:24,877 --> 01:10:27,177
Like what is it worth?

787
01:10:27,317 --> 01:10:29,717
And it's just clunky, you know.

788
01:10:29,717 --> 01:10:38,397
So eventually gold has been the ultimate store of value, meaning that for thousands of years, it's held its value.

789
01:10:38,397 --> 01:10:47,337
You can get about the same amount of goods, the same 400 loaves of bread or same tailored suit or whatever with one ounce of gold.

790
01:10:48,017 --> 01:10:52,357
And so that's been a good store of value.

791
01:10:52,497 --> 01:10:57,177
Bitcoin is going to continue to take that helm.

792
01:10:57,317 --> 01:10:59,137
It's going to continue to win over that helm.

793
01:10:59,717 --> 01:11:11,757
And as it does that, I think it winds up strengthening the dollar if the U.S. backs it, if the U.S. adopts it and puts it in a strategic reserve.

794
01:11:11,917 --> 01:11:17,817
It winds up strengthening the U.S. balance sheet and the confidence in the U.S. dollar for a while.

795
01:11:19,197 --> 01:11:27,037
So whether or not they ever turn around and back bonds with Bitcoin remains to be seen.

796
01:11:27,037 --> 01:11:30,257
I think that eventually they're going to be backed into a corner where they're going to have a little

797
01:11:30,257 --> 01:11:37,257
choice but to do so in order to keep spending so that's the that's that's a long way off though

798
01:11:37,257 --> 01:11:43,417
Brandon I think it does move in 50 year cycles at best and so it's going to take a long time

799
01:11:43,417 --> 01:11:47,337
I do I think that when I'm

800
01:11:47,383 --> 01:11:54,563
and my kids are, you know, my age, it's going to be a completely different world for money.

801
01:11:54,783 --> 01:12:00,683
And it's hard for people to wrap their heads around that because everybody alive now knows

802
01:12:00,683 --> 01:12:07,303
the US dollar is being the king, but that has not always been the case and it won't always be the

803
01:12:07,303 --> 01:12:14,163
case. You know, we will eventually migrate to a different system monetarily. And at this point,

804
01:12:14,163 --> 01:12:15,343
I would bet on Bitcoin.

805
01:12:15,923 --> 01:12:16,423
We'll see.

806
01:12:17,443 --> 01:12:19,423
Or maybe I won't see, but you might.

807
01:12:20,903 --> 01:12:23,563
James, I mean, you're talking so grim here, man,

808
01:12:23,623 --> 01:12:25,483
about maybe you won't see with everything.

809
01:12:25,643 --> 01:12:28,423
I mean, I think the only thing you won't see in the future,

810
01:12:28,803 --> 01:12:31,623
maybe for the rest of your life, is Texas winning another net.

811
01:12:32,783 --> 01:12:35,043
We can put it on that there.

812
01:12:35,283 --> 01:12:37,523
So we all know the Aggies will win it.

813
01:12:37,623 --> 01:12:39,503
So you don't have to worry about that.

814
01:12:39,503 --> 01:12:44,263
So maybe we'll get to the hyper Bitcoinization a little bit sooner than that, though.

815
01:12:44,583 --> 01:12:47,343
But, you know, with that, I want to have some fun with you now.

816
01:12:47,423 --> 01:12:52,343
Now that I got my little chop in, what do you see from your longhorns this year, James?

817
01:12:52,383 --> 01:12:54,823
I know last time we had you on, we talked a little hockey.

818
01:12:55,003 --> 01:12:57,063
Now I want to hear your prediction.

819
01:12:57,283 --> 01:12:58,403
I mean, you guys are coming in.

820
01:12:58,483 --> 01:13:00,063
Texas is back, as always.

821
01:13:00,543 --> 01:13:02,463
You know, number one preseason team.

822
01:13:02,763 --> 01:13:06,143
And we're coming in right before the college football season's going.

823
01:13:06,363 --> 01:13:08,943
So is Texas going to win the national championship?

824
01:13:08,943 --> 01:13:14,343
I know you said you don't like price predictions, but I'll have to put you on a spot for college football prediction.

825
01:13:14,803 --> 01:13:17,803
Man, it's hard coming into the season as number one, isn't it?

826
01:13:17,843 --> 01:13:22,323
You've got the bullseye on your chest all year, if they can hold it.

827
01:13:22,683 --> 01:13:25,523
First, they've got to come out and play number three, Ohio State.

828
01:13:25,623 --> 01:13:26,523
That's just nuts.

829
01:13:26,923 --> 01:13:28,463
That's going to be a fun game.

830
01:13:29,703 --> 01:13:32,203
So what do the Longhorns have?

831
01:13:32,283 --> 01:13:45,507
Well they got a really strong D which is that exciting to be able to hold other teams down I just remember back in the late 90s early 2000s

832
01:13:45,507 --> 01:13:49,967
when Oklahoma would come in to the Cotton Bowl

833
01:13:49,967 --> 01:13:53,027
and you'd be all revved up because we had this great offense.

834
01:13:53,387 --> 01:13:56,647
And then next thing you know, you're getting absolutely obliterated

835
01:13:56,647 --> 01:14:00,407
because Oklahoma put 65 points on the board.

836
01:14:00,407 --> 01:14:03,227
So that's actually pretty exciting.

837
01:14:04,067 --> 01:14:06,767
Everybody's talking about Arch Manning.

838
01:14:07,147 --> 01:14:10,247
And so another one that's got a bullseye in his chest,

839
01:14:10,307 --> 01:14:14,267
the guy's played just a handful of games and not a full game, right?

840
01:14:14,347 --> 01:14:17,847
So he's only been in certain situations.

841
01:14:17,967 --> 01:14:19,107
He's done extremely well.

842
01:14:20,167 --> 01:14:25,907
He's got the poise of a Manning, and he's shown that he's got that size.

843
01:14:26,007 --> 01:14:26,587
He's getting bigger.

844
01:14:26,667 --> 01:14:27,227
He's getting stronger.

845
01:14:27,287 --> 01:14:27,987
He's getting smarter.

846
01:14:28,547 --> 01:14:30,387
But this is going to be a big test for him.

847
01:14:30,407 --> 01:14:33,727
because he's coming out as a leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy,

848
01:14:34,327 --> 01:14:37,747
and he's only played partially in a few games.

849
01:14:37,747 --> 01:14:39,947
So that's kind of crazy to me.

850
01:14:40,047 --> 01:14:43,707
It's a lot of pressure for a kid, and he is a kid.

851
01:14:44,707 --> 01:14:46,487
He's 20-something years old.

852
01:14:46,587 --> 01:14:47,767
I mean, he's just a kid.

853
01:14:48,907 --> 01:14:51,387
But I think he's ready to step up,

854
01:14:51,487 --> 01:14:53,347
and it's going to be very interesting to see.

855
01:14:53,767 --> 01:14:55,307
The first game is going to be a huge test.

856
01:14:55,827 --> 01:14:57,927
It can set the tone for the whole year,

857
01:14:57,927 --> 01:15:01,207
but I have high hopes for them.

858
01:15:01,587 --> 01:15:03,427
Do I think they ultimately win it?

859
01:15:03,547 --> 01:15:05,447
It's hard to say, you know,

860
01:15:05,507 --> 01:15:09,187
but I do think that they ultimately will be in the playoffs.

861
01:15:10,727 --> 01:15:14,927
And I don't know if I'd say the same about the Aggies this year.

862
01:15:17,287 --> 01:15:19,387
Everybody's always a hater on the Aggies, man.

863
01:15:19,667 --> 01:15:35,712
I think we a little bit of a dark horse this year We got a good defense That what A always has We always got a good defensive line We always have some good corners I mean you can see the guys in the pros Von Miller Miles Garrett all those guys

864
01:15:35,812 --> 01:15:37,492
They can frustrate teams.

865
01:15:37,752 --> 01:15:39,712
If they put their mind straight, they can really.

866
01:15:40,012 --> 01:15:41,992
And I've been to Kyle Field.

867
01:15:41,992 --> 01:15:45,292
That wall of Aggies, you know, the 11th man.

868
01:15:45,552 --> 01:15:46,272
I mean, that is.

869
01:15:46,312 --> 01:15:47,032
12th man, dude.

870
01:15:47,092 --> 01:15:47,832
It's a 12th man.

871
01:15:47,832 --> 01:15:50,672
That is impressive.

872
01:15:51,092 --> 01:15:52,292
You know, that is impressive.

873
01:15:52,292 --> 01:15:56,532
And it's, I mean, that is, you walk in there, that's a, that's a lot of noise.

874
01:15:56,852 --> 01:16:01,452
And, uh, so Kyle Fields, to me, it'd be a tough place to play.

875
01:16:01,672 --> 01:16:03,972
Um, but, uh, I don't know.

876
01:16:03,992 --> 01:16:06,952
It's, it's going to be, it's going to be exciting and interesting.

877
01:16:06,952 --> 01:16:09,832
It's going to be a fun, it's really fun season to me.

878
01:16:09,872 --> 01:16:10,672
It's going to be real fun.

879
01:16:11,012 --> 01:16:12,932
So, and, uh, yeah.

880
01:16:12,932 --> 01:16:16,452
And I got another, another daughter over, she's a, she's a gator.

881
01:16:16,692 --> 01:16:18,612
So that's another, we'll see.

882
01:16:18,832 --> 01:16:19,172
Okay.

883
01:16:19,332 --> 01:16:19,572
Yeah.

884
01:16:19,572 --> 01:16:25,772
So those two are their little intra-family rivalry.

885
01:16:27,232 --> 01:16:29,232
Hey, Lagway is going to be nice this year.

886
01:16:29,332 --> 01:16:32,872
I mean, I'm out here in Tampa, so like half the people are Florida State fans,

887
01:16:32,992 --> 01:16:34,012
half the people are Gators.

888
01:16:34,292 --> 01:16:37,612
So, I mean, I hear it from both ends as well out here.

889
01:16:37,872 --> 01:16:40,792
But, James, I feel like we got to do a little bit of a bet here

890
01:16:40,792 --> 01:16:43,212
for the Thanksgiving game here.

891
01:16:43,872 --> 01:16:44,992
Oh, yeah, absolutely.

892
01:16:44,992 --> 01:16:47,672
I will ride with my Aggies here.

893
01:16:47,672 --> 01:16:54,932
um and if not i don't know i mean maybe we got to put like 10k sats or 20k sats or something like

894
01:16:54,932 --> 01:17:01,692
that on it you name this you name the sats and that's the bet all right we'll do 20 we'll do 21k

895
01:17:01,692 --> 01:17:06,812
sats on i'll take the aggies you could take the longhorn straight up i mean i'm sure that the

896
01:17:06,812 --> 01:17:12,512
longhorns will be heavily favored so i'm going to be looking a little grim going into it but i'll

897
01:17:12,512 --> 01:17:25,696
I put I put it on the line for my Aggies here this time All right It a bet All right Sounds good Well James thanks so much for playing along with me here at the end and the insightful conversation that you always bring

898
01:17:25,696 --> 01:17:31,636
Why don't you tell people more about where they can find you and what you guys got going on in the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund?

899
01:17:31,996 --> 01:17:32,476
Yeah, of course.

900
01:17:32,556 --> 01:17:37,076
My newsletter is just that it's the informationist and you can find it at jameslavish.com.

901
01:17:37,076 --> 01:17:44,996
I put it out each week and just simplify one confusing financial topic for you weekly.

902
01:17:45,376 --> 01:17:47,416
There's a free version that comes out once a month.

903
01:17:47,636 --> 01:17:49,996
And then the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund.

904
01:17:50,096 --> 01:17:52,816
Yeah, we just started raising fund two.

905
01:17:53,116 --> 01:17:57,136
We've already raised over 20% of our goal and we're super excited.

906
01:17:58,576 --> 01:18:02,756
And it's a public-private partnership that invests in the Bitcoin space.

907
01:18:02,756 --> 01:18:04,916
Like you heard, all these things that we're doing.

908
01:18:04,916 --> 01:18:07,656
and it's for accredited investors.

909
01:18:08,036 --> 01:18:09,216
I have to say that,

910
01:18:09,336 --> 01:18:10,936
but if you're interested,

911
01:18:11,136 --> 01:18:12,196
you can just get more,

912
01:18:12,416 --> 01:18:14,956
you can get more info at www,

913
01:18:15,416 --> 01:18:15,856
obviously,

914
01:18:16,356 --> 01:18:17,996
bitcoinopportunity.fund

915
01:18:17,996 --> 01:18:20,076
and just put in your information

916
01:18:20,076 --> 01:18:22,016
and we can set up a call or whatever

917
01:18:22,016 --> 01:18:23,556
and see if it's appropriate for you.

918
01:18:24,156 --> 01:18:26,496
We're always looking for good new LPs.

919
01:18:26,856 --> 01:18:28,596
So, but we're super excited.

920
01:18:28,836 --> 01:18:31,496
It's a great space to be in,

921
01:18:32,036 --> 01:18:33,536
really good time to be in it.

922
01:18:33,536 --> 01:18:37,176
and there's a long road ahead, a lot of runway ahead of us.

923
01:18:38,016 --> 01:18:39,016
A hundred percent.

924
01:18:39,176 --> 01:18:41,036
Yeah, this bull run is just getting started.

925
01:18:41,156 --> 01:18:42,636
So there's a lot of great things ahead

926
01:18:42,636 --> 01:18:44,236
and I'll put all that in the show notes.

927
01:18:44,416 --> 01:18:45,436
And James, thanks so much.

928
01:18:45,856 --> 01:18:47,036
Awesome to be here, Brandon.

929
01:18:47,136 --> 01:18:48,036
Look forward to the next time.

930
01:18:48,136 --> 01:18:48,476
Thank you.

931
01:18:49,196 --> 01:18:50,676
Thank you guys all for tuning in

932
01:18:50,676 --> 01:18:53,776
to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.

933
01:18:54,156 --> 01:18:55,396
If you found some value in this one,

934
01:18:55,516 --> 01:18:58,116
please hit that subscribe button and that like button

935
01:18:58,116 --> 01:18:59,516
to help send this one to the masses.

936
01:18:59,736 --> 01:19:01,036
And I've got a surprise for you guys.

937
01:19:01,136 --> 01:19:02,976
I've got two more episodes that you have

938
01:19:02,976 --> 01:19:07,376
the chance to watch here. So go ahead and click one of them and I'll see you guys all at the next one.