Demographics tell you that if the 750 trillion is handed down to people, you know, in their 50s and 30s,
more and more of that money is going to go into Bitcoin because there's obviously an...
But we are having a revolution of sorts.
And so for everyone thinking about the assets they own,
the reason I tell people that they should have at least 5% of their money in Bitcoin.
What's up, guys?
70,000 of you guys keep coming back every single month, but 71% are not subscribed.
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So make sure that you're hitting that subscribe button with the bell notification so you get notified every time I drop a video.
All right, now let's get back into this great interview.
Bing bong! I am back with another edition of the State of Bitcoin podcast where I'm here with the man, the myth, the legend, Jordy Visser,
who had a very interesting podcast here not too long ago talking about the convergence of AI with the potential of a market crash in 2030.
We've seen a lot of interesting data coming out here in the recent weeks, one of which is the recent college graduates.
They're just not getting hired. Jobs market data is looking pretty terrible.
And there's the theory out there that the AI is taking the lower end jobs.
So then the younger college graduates need to get more educated or more qualified in order to get a starter level job, which adds up to a lot of issues in itself.
But, Jordy, I'm curious how you view the economy currently as we're sitting here in 25 and as you're projecting it out to the potential of that market crash that you called in 2030.
Well, everything is fine now and everything looks good because artificial intelligence is expanding.
It's going to continue to expand.
And I wouldn't categorize what I said as a market crash in 2030, but we can get to that over time.
Anyone who thinks they can predict what's going to happen five years out is out of their mind.
You take everything day by day, month by month, year by year, and you see how things progress.
Artificial intelligence is going to keep the economy growing.
It's going to keep inflation in check.
It's going to disrupt and have more impacts on the labor market than we've already seen.
This is not a new thing.
It's just that artificial intelligence is the latest of innovations that have been disrupting the jobs market, creating inequality.
And we're reaching the point where, in my opinion, artificial intelligence is accelerating so fast that it makes the movement that we saw from the smartphone and the cloud look very, very slow.
And the speed of this is just confusing people.
It's confusing governments.
It's confusing central banks.
And it's only going to worsen.
So the economy is fine.
The stock market's great because profit margins are good.
But the labor market is going to worsen every year going forward.
Okay, well, let's dive in a little bit more of that because you talked a little bit about
re-rating risk or the potential of this downward shock in asset values.
We've obviously seen, you know, the S&P 500 hit all time highs, Bitcoin shortly behind that as well, hitting all time highs.
We're floating around, you know, the 110 mark right now.
But, you know, it seems like everything's lining out for the potential of, you know, the stock market at least breaking out.
But housing, on the other hand, is kind of in this weird area where maybe it's overvalued.
Maybe, you know, prices are coming down in certain areas.
So as far as assets, with gold even cranking up and hitting all-time highs, how do you view this? Do you see it as an asset bubble, or is it just signs of a healthy economy with the way that the stock market is pushing?
I don't really believe in the concept of bubbles. It's a word that gets used way too much. Let's
just say the central banks and the governments of the world have a significant problem. They've
accumulated an enormous amount of debt. In America, we focus on the debt that we have,
$37 trillion. But the reality is, this is a global problem. It exists in Europe,
exists in Japan, exists in China, and that's the majority of global GDP.
So the reality is when you have a debt bubble or a debt size this large, it's been accumulated over the decades, really since the U.S. got off the gold standard and we prevented what would be normal recessions or serious recessions.
recessions. And so we're at a point where they have only two choices. They can reset the global
economy and go into a depression like 1930 situation. Or the other thing is to debase their
way out, to let interest rates be below the inflation rate to try and get rid of the debt.
So rather than think of it as asset bubbles, you know, I'm sure most people that are watching this
just realize that if you want to do better than inflation, you have to invest in things that will
do better than inflation. Gold does better. Bitcoin does better. The majority of stocks
that are sensitive to inflation, which has really been the United States of American stocks,
not the rest of the world, have done better and bonds have not. So I think that's what's driven
all this to this point. I think the housing market in the U.S., again, it had a surge which drove
prices and affordability up to extremely high levels, and that was driven primarily by COVID.
The problem is with the housing market, it's an illiquid asset. And so it gets marked higher because 30 houses are on a block and one house trades up 25 percent.
And then all of those houses are up 25 percent until people start to sell.
We don't have a lot of transactions happening and we don't have people selling because they have huge equity in their home.
They've locked in mortgage rates at very low levels. And so it's just been a static housing market.
I think the government is fixated right now on helping that.
Housing affordability is going to be a major issue for the midterms next year.
And there's been a lot of rhetoric that's been coming out of the White House over the
course of the last month that they're going to declare a national emergency on housing
affordability.
They're also trying to pressure the Fed to lower rates.
All of this stuff, in my opinion, will put a floor under housing.
But I think the times of housing prices rising up are over.
I don't see another quote unquote bubble or phase coming in housing to drive it higher.
And again, this all gets back to the fact that AI five years from now, we'll be talking about humanoids.
Humanoids will lower the value of houses because the cost of building a house will go down significantly when you don't have to use human beings to build it.
So everyone just needs to prepare for asset prices in five years as having new competition from what artificial intelligence is going to bring.
Yeah, that's interesting. And you've mentioned in your writing and everything else about these economic indicators being broken. Is this a primary, I guess, result of just AI and the efficiency going up? Or why do you think that these old economic indicators are now maybe that the tide is somewhat changing on that?
Yeah, it's not just artificial intelligence. I think people should really, you know, take a step back and think about how much has changed in our lives since 2007.
You know, in 2007, we had about $9 trillion in debt in the United States. Now we have $37 trillion. The increase of that debt was driven by two events. One was Great Financial Crisis. The second one was COVID.
These were very large events that historically would have triggered some form of a serious recession slash depression.
Now, obviously, with the Great Financial Crisis, you had a version of that where all the banks were under pressure and eventually the government had to come in and make sure that didn't go on.
In 2007, you had the launch of the iPhone.
Before that, for the people that are younger on here, we didn't have smartphones.
So when that came out, the world changed.
We got the App Store.
We got iPads.
We got a whole bunch of things that really enabled us to kind of transform the economy and make it something where, quote unquote, GDP as a statistic became irrelevant.
Every day, GDP as a statistic becomes less relevant because that index was created in the 1930s.
It was meant to measure physical goods, physical assets, not intangible assets.
And intangible assets are what's dominated with technology, with software.
And now with artificial intelligence, it just worsens. So we don't have recessions anymore. We can't have recessions anymore. We can't have them because the government can't let them happen. And they can't let them happen because we have too much debt and we have too big of a deficit.
So the concept of what a recession is, is no longer relevant. And those statistics that I've referenced in the past that are no longer relevant, they're just not relevant anymore. They don't mean anything in a world where we're just going towards everything being software.
And now we're going into a world where we're going to have humanoids and AI agents replacing workers.
So how do you measure an economy if you have literally humanoids walking around doing the work for us?
You have to change the index. You have to change the way they think about things.
So we're in the early stages of that now.
Yeah. So when you're saying that we can't have any recessions anymore and, you know, the debt is almost out of control, I guess is a two part question.
Are we essentially just, you know, are you lining out a debt spiral where, you know, there's no way out and maybe it's Bitcoin as the savior or maybe something else, some other way to get off of, you know, the dollar reserve?
And then on the flip side of things, if we can't get into a recession anymore, does this mean, you know, the economy is going to continually grow or do you see periods of stagflation and maybe some of the stagnation that we could potentially, you know, see here?
Yeah, maybe this year, similar times to like the 70s per se.
Well, not not having a recession again, this is hard for people to comprehend because they went to school and they hear this thing that means something.
It doesn't it. There's no definition of it. So the you know, if you ask 100 people, probably 50 percent are going to say, I think it's two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
Well, we had that in 2022 and we didn't have a recession because we created four million jobs. So at the end of the day, it comes back to jobs.
It comes back to can people, if they're out of work, get a job. Anyone who loses a job today can go get a job. Anybody.
It's just a question of whether you want to do the work that's available.
Do you want to clean hotel rooms?
Do you want to work at Dunkin' Donuts?
Do you want there's jobs everywhere, DoorDash, Uber.
The problem is the government's been handing out money in transfer payments.
You've got this huge distribution of wealth problem.
You've got a lot of people working in the health care field, which can no longer afford to live in the areas.
So when you talk about a recession, we're in one for many, many people in the country.
It just doesn't involve job losses.
It involves a situation of not being happy, of not enjoying things.
And that's why the consumer confidence numbers, whether it's the University of Michigan one,
which gets released monthly, or the conference board, these are at very low levels.
In the case of the University of Michigan, I just wrote a paper to highlight that the
most recent reading we had was the, I believe, the sixth lowest we've had since 1990. So you're
dealing with 35 years of data points, and it was the sixth lowest, and yet we have one of the lowest
unemployment rates in history, and we have the stock market continuing to be in a bull market.
So anyone can have a job, the stock market's going higher, yet people are not confident. So
theoretically, that's a recession, meaning the way people feel is not good. And that's why there
is no such thing. And people should just stop this ridiculous thing of calling for recessions.
This is an economics word which was created, which means nothing at the end of the day,
if you don't have job losses. Yeah. And that is interesting because
everybody seems to think that there is a little bit more underneath the hood when it comes to the
jobs, not necessarily because there's losses. Of course, the unemployment rate is still
at 4.3%, I believe, percent. But we do have a lot of revisions to the jobs market data where
we wrote down 911,000 jobs. And those revisions are almost historic with how large they are.
Do you think that it's just a data problem? Or is that more of, I guess, some weakening in that
labor market to show that that was essentially Trump's card to call for these rate cuts?
Again, the unemployment rate didn't change because those numbers are from the survey part.
The numbers that go into the unemployment rate didn't change. So everyone expected the change.
This goes on every single year. They do a survey and then they have to come back and
go through the numbers. I think, again, I think the unemployment rate's sitting at one of the
lowest levels. Jobless claims are sitting at one of the lowest levels in history, which means that
nobody's getting fired. We have a very unique situation in the country. Number one, we have
effectively stopped immigration and reversed it. So that brings down the available pool of labor,
which used to be there. So we have shortages in a lot of categories now because of immigration
turning back. At the same time, we lose about 300,000 people a year in the labor force,
primarily from demographics, because we have older people turning older every single day
and not enough replacement people to go in. So when you go through it, we have a situation where
we actually have a labor shortage, as opposed to focusing on the negative side of looking at
job revisions. We have a labor shortage. So part of the reason that AI and the job situation is
actually going to be helped is the fact that without that, we'd be in bigger trouble.
We'd be having, without immigration and without having the demographic replacement side, we'd
be losing more jobs and we'd be in kind of a situation that Japan was in where their population
had peaked and gone down. That has growth consequences without artificial intelligence.
It has a lot of different components that can contribute to what will feel like a weaker
environment. But I think people should just realize that the revisions are part of bad data
that has always been there that comes out and gets released each month and then they go back
and revise it but the unemployment rate did not change yeah that's fair and and I you know I've
been one to say that the the data services and like the way that they're collecting in all of
these different numbers and essentially making decisions based on that is just so outdated it ridiculous I mean the government got to update but who knows if they ever do it at this point What if I told you you never had to sell your Bitcoin
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proven. But I want to shift into more of Bitcoin because we've been talking a little bit about AI
here. What do you think Bitcoin's role is in this new AI economy? And do you see it potentially
changing the way people view markets in general? Bitcoin has achieved a status which, you know,
six years ago, I think would have been very challenging for people to envision it happening
this fast. And where I say that is, it has been accepted, I think, by most investors.
And when I say most, let's say around the globe, Bitcoin is accepted as a store of value at this
point. The user base continues to grow. Once you opened up the ETF, it became part of the retail
channel and now you have all of the banks and everyone is going to be more involved in terms
of Bitcoin and promoting it and adding it as a weight in people's portfolios.
And the reason is because something really important happened this year once the inauguration
was done, which is we had the United States supporting it and saying it was an asset and
then putting in regulations and bills to support not just Bitcoin, but the entire crypto market.
So my thought process for this year has been that this was one of, if not the most important points in the credibility of not only Bitcoin, but the understanding that it is part of the digital economy that will be growing rapidly.
So 2022 was a horrible year for crypto.
The following two years dealt with regulations and a lot of things that made it very difficult for entrepreneurs in the space to actually grow anything.
During that time period where there were Wells notices and all kinds of debanking and things that were going on, you still had an ecosystem that was surviving, definitely not thriving.
But Bitcoin found a way to continue to go higher during that time period.
And so now we're at a different stage where stable coins are getting a lot of press.
They're getting a lot of focus.
It is where I think the mentality has shifted for the traditional finance world, which was brought into it because of the White House.
But the traditional finance world has a much easier time with things like stable coins because they've got math behind.
It's not just a story. It's not just a store of value.
It actually has a business side that you can go in and think about.
And so whether it's a circle IPO, whether it's the thought that Tether is going to bring an IPO, all of these things have gone on this year.
You've had the Bitcoin miners really do well in the last month.
And this is all driven by the fact that traditional finance is now trying to find a way to connect AI to this.
And I've talked about it all year.
The most important intersection between crypto, Bitcoin, and AI is going to be the network effects that come through AI agents and transactions.
That will be growing rapidly over the course of the next year and a half.
AI agents have just started to really impact transactions.
They're going to continue to impact transactions.
It's going to grow more and more.
It has negative effects for jobs, but it has a positive impact in terms of the network effects.
And so you're left with a world that's going to have more wallets opening up, more decisions made by computers.
Human beings are the ones that have the bias against Bitcoin at this point.
It has been the best performing asset on almost any metric since not only since the launch, but over the last decade.
So it should have a higher weighting in people's portfolios.
If computers are making the decision, which they'll be making more of the decisions in life every single day for the foreseeable future, they'll be making the decisions that don't have a bias to them.
They'll be making the decisions that make the most logical sense, the most mathematical sense.
And that's where Bitcoin will benefit dramatically over the course of the next five years.
Now, you've called Bitcoin the S&P 500 of the future.
Now, I'm curious kind of how you want to dive into that a little bit more, because I mean, if you look at the S&P 500, even though it's been doing very well, if you look at it compared to the M2 money supply growth, it's basically in line with that since the year 2000.
Now, on the flip side of things, Bitcoin has just severely outperformed all of it.
So is that essentially, you think, the new benchmark in investing?
Or as these companies start to develop a Bitcoin standard, Bitcoin becomes more commonplace,
MicroStrategy, MSTR joins the S&P 500.
A lot of these companies start to join the S&P 500.
that will just kind of morph into almost like a Bitcoin proxy, so to speak,
and then that will make it that S&P 500 of the future?
Or do you just see spot Bitcoin kind of finding that place in everybody's portfolio?
Yeah, so I don't believe any companies inside the S&P 500
or have a lifespan long enough for people to kind of go through who will be there in whatever years.
This is one of the reasons why when I talk about 2030, the capital structure of companies is changing.
The reason that we're seeing Circle go public, the reason we're seeing all of these companies at this point going public
is partly because this is an overhang from 2022.
too. The non-crypto companies like SpaceX, like Stripe, like so many of them are not going public
at all. And the reason they're not going public is because there's really no reason to. And in a
lot of cases, being a public company, I think, has proven to be a disadvantage in many, many ways.
So if you don't, if capital is getting easier to raise because you don't need as much, because
most of the capital that gets raised later in your growth curve ends up being for people,
but you don't need people because you're using AI. We're seeing more and more companies that
are growing rapidly. Companies like Cursor, Replit, Merkur. These are companies that
are already massively over unicorn levels. They have ARs growing faster than any companies in
history. And this is the new world that we're going to be in. So when I say that the 2030s
going to be difficult, it's because all assets, every single asset will be disrupted by artificial
intelligence. There's not one asset that will not be disrupted by artificial intelligence. So
in five years, all the companies you mentioned that would be part of the S&P 500, you would be
assuming they have a moat. They don't have a moat anymore. Nobody has a moat. So when I say that
Bitcoin is the S&P 500, the S&P 500 historically has had a moat, meaning it's amorphous. If a
If a company does really well and ends up in the S&P 500, well, if the companies that
are doing really, really well and winning OpenAI, Anthropic, Figure AI, go through the
list of what they're not public.
So if these companies never go public, then they never go into the S&P 500.
And if you were left with a graveyard of companies like Ford, GE, all of these zombie companies
that are still part of the S&P 500.
If every company in the S&P 500 was a zombie company, the index wouldn't go up.
So a lot of what has happened has been the rebirth of innovation.
The MAG-7 has dominated what's happened in the S&P since 2007.
But if the replacement for the MAG-7 are companies that never go public and they start stealing market share from the MAG-7, then the S&P doesn't go higher anymore.
And that's what I envision starting in 2030 and going bomb.
And that all has to do with when AGI will be here.
So the whole part of this is that you have to spend your time understanding that artificial intelligence and crypto combined are changing the way the world is.
AI is changing the relationship between labor and capital, and Bitcoin is changing and crypto is changing the entire capital structure.
So when you combine the two, you have a rebirth of a new system that isn't capitalism the way we've known it.
It's a completely different system coming out of the 2030s.
yeah that's very interesting the the new system in the 2030s now so essentially i mean we're seeing
this growing trend just not only in the the ai and kind of the tech space but especially in the
bitcoin space where companies are almost feeling like they don't they don't want to go public they
want to hold that off where it seemed like before that was kind of the new craze everybody was trying
to get an ipo try to figure out a way to become public as quickly as possible so i guess in
In 2030s, you're essentially lining out that it wouldn't be as advantageous to go public at this point, right, for the founders.
Is that right?
I don't think companies are going to have a lifespan that lasts long enough.
I don't think people fully grasp.
You can right now go into your phone, go on ChatGPT, take any app that exists and say, hey, this is an interesting app.
What I want you to do is go rebuild this app immediately today and give me a version of it, but add this to it.
And then you can launch that all within a matter of minutes at this point, maybe an hour.
And so that means competition is immediate.
That didn't exist before.
So part of having a moat, part of being able to go public is that you need to build something.
And then in time, you have something that comes through.
innovations just happen rapidly now. And you've given everyone around the world, so the 8 billion
people now have the ability to code. So one of the things that's similar between crypto
and the MAG7 is that they're built on code. And so we're entering a world where everything is
built on code. Code is now ubiquitous. Code was not ubiquitous over the last 30 years. So one of
the differences I have with people on the dollar is when they say, well, the dollar has been stronger
because of military. It's been stronger because of this. No, the dollar has been stronger primarily
because we had a monopoly on coding. All of the coders in the world were in Silicon Valley in a
little tiny place in Northern California, and that's where the whole place birthed out. So
they're not all Americans. In fact, many, many of the founders of the companies that are large and
all of the ones that work there now, they're not American. They're from around the globe,
which means that the rest of the globe has very smart people as well that can compete with
coding. Well, now you're opening up all countries throughout Asia, all countries throughout the
Middle East, all countries throughout Latin America, South America, every place. And you're
giving them the ability of building businesses via code. So whatever you can come up with in crypto,
whatever you can come up with in anything, you're assuming that someone else won't build something
better within a year of what you built. That's not going to exist anymore. So it's not that I don't
think any of the things that you just said. I just think people are mistaking that AI speeds up the
innovation cycle. And it's that innovation cycle, how long it takes for someone to come out with a
competitive product that leads to moats. And if you don't have that, think about how many games
there's been since people were playing Fortnite and what happened to Axie Infinity and all these
things. They come and they go. And there's a new one that comes out every single year. The same
thing will happen with companies. Now, is that why we've already seen kind of like you lined out
the Mag 7 essentially be super heavyweighted and like the S&P 493 essentially be flat at this point?
Well, they have moats. And again, they have moats because they had coding and they bought
up the competitors. So in from 2007 to 2020, they bought up everybody. They bought up every single
company that came came out whether you know instagram doesn't every single part of this
youtube these were all companies that existed and they just bought them up and so they added
them to their suite of products that's not going to happen anymore so there's competition for
everything there's cursor then there's replet that come this is going to happen people are
going to replicate what's gone on and so your ability to grow your business is eventually going
going to reach a peak. And when it reaches a peak, it's not an investable asset anymore. And I think
that's the thing that people have. The great thing about crypto and kind of watching it, especially
the 21-22 cycle, you would see coins that would go up just infinitely for a period of time,
and then they collapsed. And if you really sit back and go through and think how that could happen,
And you're going to start to realize that we're starting to see the same thing with inside the world now.
It's just that things are moving still at a slow enough pace every single day because of artificial intelligence.
We will be speeding up the cycle of movement in companies and their ability to grow.
But that also means that the competition speeds up.
And if the competition speeds up, these things go parabolic and then they reach a level and then they turn the other direction very, very quickly.
So I think we're going to see a lot more what would be called boom busts, but they're really just going to be a faster innovation cycle.
This bull run, I think everybody should focus on getting their Bitcoin in self-custody and off exchanges.
We all saw what happened last time with the huge blowoffs.
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Enough from me. Let's get back to the show.
Now, do you think that the bigger volatility swings that we're seeing right now is just, I guess, a symptom of the amount of innovation that we're seeing?
Or do you think it's because there's just more money in the market and those volatile swings with the amount of money supply, the debt, all of the economic factors is the reason why?
Or is it more the innovation side of things?
It's a little bit of everything.
I mean, the size of the assets is enormous.
and you have one of the largest assets, which is liquid bonds, they're not investable.
So, you know, in the past, you'd have people moving between stocks and bonds.
I don't know anyone that says they're moving money from stocks to bonds anymore.
Unless we get to a period again where people actually think there's going to be a recession,
you're just not going to see this happen.
It's very hard to call for a recession when earnings are growing as rapidly as they are.
profit margins are the way they are. And you have an innovation that's just in the early stages with
a buildup that's massive. So all the points you mentioned have contributed to the volatility.
And I just think we're going to be here. I think you'll have more 10 to 20% corrections
than you had in the past. We had a 20% correction this year. We had a 20% correction in 2022. We had
a 20% correction in 2020. And these are all for stocks. It's obviously been bigger for
Bitcoin, I think people just have to get used to these cycles where we get bigger corrections
because of the instability that's there, both from the innovation side, but also because
of the size of the asset markets now.
Okay.
So now the size of the asset markets, it seems to be a little bit bigger too.
But I mean, we've kind of been talking a lot about Bitcoin and AI, but one interesting
aspect of the two developments of these two industries is they require a lot of energy.
Now, is that somewhat of a limiting factor, you think, for the growth of these industries?
It's just, hey, we need more data centers, we need more Bitcoin miners.
And do you see that as almost a competition between the two that might be a negative and
hinder the growth?
Or is it a positive because it just, I guess, kicks the tail in to people to try to innovate
and find renewable energy sources?
Yeah, it's definitely a bottleneck for the next year or two, for sure.
It could be a bottleneck for longer.
But to your point, bottlenecks,
we're going to have an enormous amount of spending,
which is going to happen this year,
on trying to find new energy solutions
because the solutions that we have are just not going to work
relative to how fast the demand for artificial intelligence is accelerating.
We saw that recently with Oracle's earnings report just to see the historic demand that showed up for their capacity.
And they mentioned that they're just not going to be able to fulfill these orders for the next five years because right now they don't have the capacity.
So yesterday they raised, I think, $18 billion to help fund it.
They already have a tremendous amount of debt outstanding.
You're seeing NVIDIA put $100 billion into OpenAI.
They put $5 billion into Intel.
pretty much everyone out there is signaling that we for the data centers and for the energy,
we're just going to need to build things and have power to support it. So that is certainly going to
be the case. With all that money flowing in there, a lot of entrepreneurs realize that if they can
come up with a novel solution for converting some kind of commodity or energy into electricity,
there's a lot of value in it right now. So whenever you have a space that has a tremendous
amount of investment dollars going with a significant problem that has the governments
focused on it, you're going to see some breakthroughs in batteries and breakthroughs in fusions and
breakthroughs in fissions and breakthroughs in hydrogen. You're going to see all of these things.
And so five years from now, I think we're going to have, you know, a form of abundance in energy,
which is going to blow people's minds. And even if we don't have it at that point, I think we're
going to have solutions for 10 years out. And that's one of the reasons why, again, you know,
For me, in thinking about the way people invest assets, I think people have to think that five years from now, the asset valuations that they have are going to come down.
And this is my major thesis on Bitcoin.
It's the one that I have a hard time convincing people, especially wealthy people.
And I do a lot of presentations to family offices and wealthy individuals.
But they should really be worried about what's going to happen in five years.
Again, no matter what asset you talk about, whether it's real estate, whether it's stocks,
artificial intelligence is going to be a massively disruptive part.
And if we get to abundance, and people should hear the word abundance, they should go read
about it.
It's the opposite of scarcity.
Scarcity is what creates everything.
It's what economics is based on.
Capitalism is based on.
It's what assets are based on.
The only things that have value are things that are scarce.
And the only thing that I think will truly have a moat in a time of abundance is Bitcoin.
And that's why I think it will continue to outperform fiat assets.
But I think in the years to come, especially the next few years, as AI accelerates, I expect Bitcoin to accelerate too.
Yeah. So with that, then, is it just going to be everything?
I mean, we're already kind of seeing it, right?
You know, if you price real estate, the stock market, everything else, if you price that in Bitcoin terms, everything seems to go down.
I think in 2017, the average home, I want to say, in the U.S. was like 24 Bitcoin, and now it's like four or something along those lines.
So when you price those assets, are you talking about pricing it in just Bitcoin terms, seeing it go down?
Or are you seeing it more as, hey, everything's just even in dollar terms is just going to start to go down and it's going to have a hard time.
And I guess if you're parking your fiat in any other type of asset outside of Bitcoin, it's just you're going to be losing purchasing power.
Yeah. And this whole concept of pricing something in another thing, everyone has to understand that whenever you're doing any kind of a relative pricing, it's talking about moving one thing from one to another.
And in the case of Bitcoin versus all other assets, people are going to have to, if they want to keep the wealth that they've accumulated, and again, the size of the fiat assets is anywhere, depending on which publication you want to read, somewhere between $500 trillion and a quadrillion.
So let's just take $750 trillion and Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset.
So Bitcoin is extremely cheap relative to the value and the transfer of all of those.
Well, demographics tell you that if the $750 trillion is handed down to people in their 50s and 30s as part of just the demographic shift, more and more of that money is going to go into Bitcoin because there's obviously an age bias towards what people invest in.
And the younger they are, the more they're linked to Bitcoin and more interested in it.
The further down the road of people who are not happy, the more they're looking for another system they're interested in Bitcoin.
I write about this a lot. I talk about this a lot.
We are at a stage where artificial intelligence is going to make the voters of the world angrier and angrier every single day.
This is not just a United States phenomenon.
The top 1% in the U.S. control 50% of the net worth.
The bottom 50% don't equal anything close to what they have.
So normally people would be talking about a revolution if this was 100 years ago.
Well, we're not going to have a revolution the way that it has historically, but we are having a revolution of sorts.
And so for everyone thinking about the assets they own, the reason I tell people that they should have at least 5% of their money in Bitcoin is a diversifier about this.
Nobody has to listen and believe the things they hear from people like me.
But you do want to make sure that you have a hedge on something.
And if I was saying this about an asset that hadn't moved or wasn't big, it's a good argument.
But you're dealing with one of the largest assets in the world now that has been the best performing asset since no matter what time metric you use, it's about time people thought of real estate in Bitcoin terms because they should have more Bitcoin at this point increasing relative to stocks, bonds and real estate.
Yeah, I mean, I 100% agree with you. And I think that that's starting to happen, at least in the Bitcoin space. We're starting to see people look at the value proposition of buying something immediately and having maybe a little bit of a longer term preference.
But I'm curious what you think with all we've got, the Genius Act and kind of the growing stablecoin type of revolution here in the United States.
Even Russia has come out and said that we're going to potentially use the crypto and Bitcoin markets in order to try to pay off our debt.
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All right, enough from me. Let's get back to the show.
You know, do you see that as a viable way out? And, you know, how do you see stable coins playing a role in all of this?
um a viable way out um i think artificial intelligence is going to force the world to
change um so i'm i'm not a stable coins are on are going to be dominated by the u.s dollar
um they will keep getting higher and higher as a treasury holder because i expect there to be more
and more dollars around the globe from emerging markets that move their money into dollar stable
coins. I think that's going to happen. I think it's good for Bitcoin because I think that money
just ends up in the digital economy. And rather than think of it as stable coins and Bitcoin,
I just think everyone should break this down to fiat assets and then digital assets. And the more
money that moves from fiat assets into stable coins, which is absolutely what happens when
anyone in the world, I don't care if they're in Brazil or the United States, decides to do a
transaction and then they're left with stable coins. Well, they have a choice. They can move
back into the traditional finance world, or they can keep them in the digital world. And if they
keep them in the digital world, they're probably going to put them in something with a store of
value as opposed to just sitting there in stable coins where they're not getting interest. So they
can have some kind of appreciation. Well, under that scenario, more and more dollars would just
keep flowing into Bitcoin. And this is the reason why rather than people focus on what stable coins
mean from an end of things, what the Genius Act did was basically tell the banks and the fiat
system. Again, just like the ETF brought in new players that could buy it. Now the banks can go
out and promote stable coins. They can issue stable coins and they can go out and promote
Bitcoin. They haven't been able to do that. So for a lot of people, they haven't even been able to
purchase an ETF because the banks wouldn't allow them to unless they met a certain investor wealth.
So now everyone's going to have access to it that didn't have access to it. And gradually over time,
more and more of those dollars will flow in. The problem is for Bitcoin and the thing that I think
has disappointed everyone, and I expected it to be much, much higher at this point this year,
I've openly said that I was just wrong on the appreciation. As we started this today,
it was still up 19% year to date. So it's not like it's had a bad year, but I fully expected
with the network effects kicking in, the stock market going higher and AI accelerating, that
we'd be actually getting higher and higher prices. But I think the good thing for people is this has
been a healthy year in the fact that the ecosystem has got the regulations associated with it that
will help bring clarity and confidence that they can invest in this. I don't think there's any
chance that if the Democrats take over in the next election that they're going to reverse the
positive things that have happened because I don't think they'll get elected then. I think now crypto
has become a major part of the voting bloc. I think that's why Trump went from hating Bitcoin
and not being positive on it, turned on it.
It's because of the voters.
And that's why in this world,
it is still the people through the revolution
of both buying it,
but voting in politicians who will support it,
that it will continue to grow
and people should continue to view it as something
which is a long-term stable trend,
which will accelerate as artificial intelligence
disrupts fiat assets.
Now, I'm curious how you view the payments aspect of it,
because you talked about AI agents kind of transacting back and forth.
And I do think that that is the revolution.
But as it stands right now, do you see Bitcoin more as, you know,
a digital gold type of aspect, at least for right now,
and then potentially getting to, you know, the payments rails down the line?
Yeah, I think stable coins are going to serve as the transaction side.
I do think Bitcoin, you will be able to transact in it.
I don't think it needs to be something that people don't think about it that way. I think you already can every day, more so than gold. Use it for collateral, use it for different things.
I think because of the nature of the digital economy and it all being on your phone, there's going to be more ways to use that than there ever was in gold because you have a real time knowledge of what you own at any given point.
Where with gold, how do you prove to someone how much gold you have?
You have to have a documentation with stocks and all these other points.
You can go through it.
So I just think that Bitcoin may not be in terms of small transactions probably bigger transactions but that the way gold works too Everyday gold is used more and more between China and Russia China and Orion and places where they don want to be on the gold standard anymore They want to be on the gold standard So they transacting more and more They trying to
basically say the dollar system is over. We don't want to be involved in it. Well, the same thing is
going on for individuals. So I think Bitcoin shouldn't be debated by people on whether it
will be used as a transaction or not. I think they have to think of it as a store value inside
the digital economy. But because the digital economy will allow Bitcoin to be used in far
more creative ways, I do think this is different than gold, where gold really has not been a part
of transactions in any way, shape, or form. You cannot walk into a grocery store and go buy
something with gold. You can't go into a pizza place and buy something with gold. You absolutely,
100% around the globe, can go into any store and go buy something with Bitcoin. You just have to
have your wallet set up to where you can convert Bitcoin into stable coins and then pay for
something. The only issue is it's not tax effective at this point. But I think this is one of the
things that I would fully expect is that for smaller transactions, Bitcoin will be a tax-free
type situation. If they do that, then you will see more and more usage happening for transactions.
Now, do you see Bitcoin as somewhat of that geopolitical neutral asset, so to speak,
just because it's completely decentralized as you were lining out some of these countries trying to
get away from the dollar, right? Do you see that as potentially the future there where, you know,
maybe some international trade is going to start being taken place, utilizing Bitcoin just as that
geopolitical neutral type of asset? Yeah, I think eventually we'll get there. I don't know when
that'll be, but I think, you know, again, if we look back two years from now, we couldn't have
envisioned where we are today with the Genius Act and with what's going to happen with the Clarity
act. I mean, I think people just have to take the progression. Last year was a very important year.
The future president of the United States spoke at a Bitcoin event. And this is someone who was
negative on Bitcoin, the same way Larry Fink was, and the same way Jamie Dimon was. And now they're
all kind of embracing it reluctantly, I would say. And the reluctance is related to the fact that
they don't understand it. The acceptance is the fact that they all are trying to make money,
and the voters are saying we want this. So I'm just going to keep going with the fact that
sometimes with crypto and especially with Bitcoin, there's an impatience that shows up with people.
You want to watch the progression happen. And if every three months you look back and say,
oh my God, look what we just accomplished in crypto. You couldn't do that in 2022.
You couldn't do that in 2023. But then gradually, especially in 2024, we started seeing the signs
that the voters were demanding this and it had survived this kind of the winter of crypto.
And once we get through this overhang, which I think Q4 will probably be a very, very good year
for a very, very good quarter for Bitcoin. And I think it'll be a very good quarter setting up for
next year. Yeah, it always seems like, you know, October, November, those are the best performing
months in Bitcoin. So always toward the end of the year, it always seems to ramp up, especially
in the bull market now you mentioned a little bit about the price action here earlier how you
you know essentially didn't uh anticipate it being i guess moving as slow as it is uh why do you
think that is uh you know we haven't seen the big price jumps right now and you know do you see uh
you know some of these big price jumps and you know if you want to give a little price prediction
here happy and feel free to to give us a little call like your your babe ruth pointed at the
outfield or something. Given the fact that I thought we'd already be above, let's say,
175,000 now, I think my predictions for this are already wrong. So there's no need to get into new
predictions and be wrong again. I think in 2023, Bitcoin went sideways, if I remember correctly,
from February to September. And then it had a ramp that led into 2024, into the ETF,
and maybe a month after. And then again, we went sideways last year from about
five to seven months leading into the election. And then we got another rise.
We peaked. We went sideways for four months before we went down with the tariffs.
Then we rallied back up over $100,000. We've been over $100,000 for the entire time since we got back
above. And now we've been consolidating between $100,000 and $120,000. And again, it's been now
since May. So we're on four months again. This is the way Bitcoin has traded. When you do that
kind of stuff and you look like a staircase, as I sent someone a message today, I said,
what do you say? I'm like, well, if you think of Bitcoin and you believe it's going higher,
this is kind of like a stairway to heaven. It's just, okay, it goes up and then it goes sideways
and it goes up and it goes sideways. And during that sideways period, every single bullish person
on Bitcoin eventually gets just, I don't want to say shaken out, but they lose interest.
They're like, this thing's never going to move again.
I don't know what the catalyst is going to be.
And then something happens and it goes up to the next level.
And so I fully expect that that's going to happen again here because of all the things
that we talked about.
The hard thing is to ignore the structural positives that have happened this year.
There is absolutely no doubt that when you look at what gold has been able to do, which
has outperformed Bitcoin, and you think about the reasons behind it. Well, those reasons have not
impacted Bitcoin. But let's assume that every single thing that was positive for gold this year
in terms of not trusting the dollar, the dollar weakness, you say, okay, well, that was part of
Bitcoin's move. Okay, great. Well, then we're not including anything for the network effects. We're
not including anything for the Circle IPO success. We're not including anything for the stablecoin
transactions going higher, the Genius Act getting through. All of these things have happened. And so
eventually, just through the normal progress, it'll start to go higher. And the reason the
fourth quarter matters so much, that's when allocations are made. And allocations to me
are going to jump into Bitcoin as it goes higher in the fourth quarter to set up for next year.
I think we are going to see people have a higher and higher weight in their portfolios as more and
more retail and FAs are allowed to suggest it. It's just going to happen. And I think it'll start
in the fourth quarter. We're probably just going to have to go through a little period of time here
because we've had such a good rally driven by the AI stocks. Let's wait till the earnings reports
come through. And then as we get into mid-October and we're kind of seeing the earnings come out
and everyone realizes, oh my gosh, the economy is good. The Fed's cutting rates. What am I going to
get my returns in next year? And they want to have more risk on. And that means not as much bonds.
I think they're just going to start putting more money into Bitcoin.
Do you think that the shift from boomers to the younger generation, that kind of like wealth shift as well, do you think that's going to play a role in, you know, essentially, you know, the American dream of buying a house with a white picket fence and everything like that might be, I guess, dead for now.
And, you know, they see Bitcoin and, you know, the crypto markets as more of the new way to invest. And so that will also play a role into, you know, potentially the Bitcoin boom.
Yeah, it has to happen. That is the generational shift that's part of the fourth turning without
getting going through specifics. But when you get this generational shift that gets
defined as the fourth turning, part of the fourth turning is that
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enough from me. Back to the show. The people that are in the fourth generation post the last
kind of revolution slash collapse, which in this case was the ending of the Great Depression and
World War II, that fourth generation is more interested in a new system and a new rebirth.
And that's why I say AI is going to cause a rebirth in the way businesses transact, the way assets are valued.
And crypto is a representation of the new capital structure.
So to me, it's not a question.
It's 100% certainty.
And I can say that because artificial intelligence is not a technology.
And I don't know how many people have thought about it enough to understand this.
artificial intelligence right now is a national security issue.
China and the U.S. are racing with it.
It will be embedded in every machine that you own.
Start with your phone, then go to your computer, then go to your car.
Then you'll have a humanoid in there.
We already have drones.
The war being fought between Russia and Ukraine is basically an artificial intelligence war.
All of these things are what we're headed towards.
and artificial intelligence is accelerating compounding in about every six months in a pace
that is dramatic. And it's the reason why I spend so much time talking about it. So
the generational shift is meeting with an innovation shift. And both of these are going
to create a new system. This is not a guess on my part. This is a certainty. And if people want to
just sit there and say, how can I be living in a world with flying cars, autonomous cars,
and humanoids walking around everywhere, being able to fly to Mars and colonize Mars and think
that the world that I knew still exists. It doesn't exist. Now for young people,
they can embrace that because they don't have the memories of what it was like to watch a TV
with rabbit ears. They don't have the memory of a phone with a cord. Kids already get this. And
And the younger they are at this stage, and for anyone who's 25 right now, that means at
25 years old, the iPhone was born when you were seven.
So you grew up with it.
You know what social media is.
You understand this.
You are more fluent in AI.
Once that generation more and more becomes part of this, they're not going to be viewing
housing the same way.
They're not going to view living in the town that I grew up the same way that people did
after World War II.
So I just think there's a generational shift that's coinciding with an innovation shift.
And those two things are all part of crypto because people need to remember there is no Bitcoin without computers.
There is no Bitcoin without coding.
There is no AI without coding.
There is no iPhone without coding.
People have to just accept that the world is built on code and it all comes together.
So this was not just luck.
the generational shift happened at the same time that code took over the world.
And so people need to just start facing facts that five years from now,
with the acceleration that's happening,
we're going to have an incredibly different world
that the only way people my age can possibly remember it
is if they go back and watch episodes of The Jetsons or Star Trek or something like that.
Do you think that there's going to be some,
I mean, it was a big narrative in the Bitcoin space for a while.
Like now they fight us.
There's going to be some reckoning coming.
some governments are going to try to attack Bitcoin?
Or do you think that because of what President Trump showed,
essentially if you embrace this market,
there's so many people behind it, money behind it,
that you either got to embrace it or get left behind.
Do you think that there's still room for governments
to try to either backdoor their way in
or try to fight this industry from growing?
No, I don't think so.
And again, that's why I said,
I think it made it very easy for the Democrats to regulate it because Europe was on the same side of regulation and China was and Russia was like no countries in the world wanted to embrace it.
What we've seen this year with just in the last two months, Europe and China have both publicly come out, the ECB and the Bank of China, and talked about the fact that what the U.S. is trying to do with stable coins is basically continue the dollar as a reserve currency through using stable coins and knowing that 90 plus percent of the stable coins are backed by dollars.
I think everyone is being forced in, like you said, whether or not they wanted to embrace it is a different story.
Governments accepting crypto was not something that I thought would be happening now.
That just shows how powerful the voting bloc was in the United States of America to force this to happen.
The president was elected because the voters, of which there's about 30 million that are pro-crypto at this point in the country, decided and went with the candidates that were pro-crypto.
And so the entire administration, all the cabinet members, everybody is pro-crypto.
This was a major, major point.
And I don't think this is about Donald Trump.
I don't think this is about the White House.
I think this is about the voters in the country.
And I think that's the issue that people just have to accept.
I can say this over and over again. We have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the history of the country. We have a stock market that's at all time highs. And yet consumer confidence is extremely low levels. That is not something that was on the bingo card that you could throw out there and be like, what do you think will happen with this?
So people just have to realize that people in their 20s and 30s have been impacted significantly. They can't buy a home the way that they thought they would. Their job, they don't have upward mobility the way they did. We talked about the fact that AI is disrupting mainly the younger people at this stage, the entry level jobs, the kids coming out of college.
That is what causes revolutions is when the younger people not only can't get a job, but they don't have the upward mobility that they can dream and have hopes that they'll eventually make a lot more money than they did in the past.
And so when you get to that scenario, and it's not just the kids and the people in their 20s and 30s that say that.
I talk to parents that are in their 50s and 60s that are worried about their kids because they're hearing the same things.
I have four kids, three of them have graduated college,
and all three of them have had to make life decisions
because of the profession that they chose.
for the rest of their lives because they're in the healthcare field, but they can't live the
way they want to live, meaning they can barely survive on their paycheck in the cities that
they want to live. And it's a reality that it's very, very difficult to do that in this society
right now. And we see it. And that's why when the top 1% have benefited from QE and assets rising
and the bottom 50% have not, you get a lot of anger and you get people looking for a new system.
So I think this all fits into the same theme.
And I think it's going to be a theme for the foreseeable future because there's no way to fix this problem without a new system.
Yeah, and I think obviously at the center of that new system.
So I think, you know, once we see that adoption coming, but it's interesting that you're saying kind of this five-year mark.
Why do you have it as 2030? And is there some deeper reasoning behind the cycle of that 2030 date that you keep mentioning?
No so there two things that are happening in let say four years Number one is AGI will be here or it be right around there AGI is the most critical part of let say the stages of AI And when we get to that point things are just moving so fast Novel solutions are happening on everything related to biology related to energy related to physics everything
At the same time, this was a historic election in terms of getting the administration to focus both on crypto and AI.
Well, this is a democratic world and the United States of America will have a new election happening.
So I think people just have to face the fact that there will be a new president in taking office in 2029.
The inauguration will happen four years from when it did this year.
And at that point, we may not have the exact same viewpoint on what's happened.
We about to elect a mayor in New York who openly a socialist The country I think has more socialist tendencies now brewing We have a polarized government So AGI is a major event And over the next four years I fully expect that the job
situation will worsen, not get better, because AI will continue to accelerate. And so four years
from now is really all because of artificial intelligence. It has nothing to do with just a
random date. It has to do with where artificial intelligence will be.
Gotcha.
Well, Jordy, it's been an extremely insightful conversation, so I really appreciate you coming on.
Why don't you tell people where they can find out more about you and learn more about your work?
Yeah, they can find me on X, on LinkedIn.
I do a weekly YouTube video, which, you know, it's easy to understand.
I go through in about 40 minutes what happened in the week of macro, what happened in the week of AI, what happened in the week of crypto.
I link it all together.
The goal is to help retail investors and institutional investors navigate through what is a lot happening in a short amount of time
Hopefully make it clear.
Hopefully help people make some money.
They can also find me on Substack.
I write a lot of pieces at least once a week on my view of the world and how things are going to change.
And then for anyone who's institutional who watches this or, you know, is a retail person that does a lot of trading, I do spend some time with 22V producing research for them, more specifically on AI in particular.
It's a macro place.
But those are the places where people can find me.
Awesome.
And I'll put all that in the show notes.
Jordy, thanks so much.
Thanks, Brandon.
Thank you guys all for tuning in to another great episode of the State of Bitcoin podcast.
podcast. If you found some value in this one, please hit that subscribe button and that like
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