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Hey, hey, welcome to the Bitcoin Matrix podcast. I'm your host, Cedric Youngelman.

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Today's episode is brought to you by CrowdHealth. My family and I ditched Fiat Health insurance for

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at just $99 per month. Today's episode is also sponsored by MicroSeed. Level up your self-custody

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with a micro seed kit. Stamp your seed phrase so tiny it's practically invisible to the human eye.

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Grab yours at micro seed dot IO with code matrix for a discount. In this episode, I sit down with

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David Collum, Cornell professor, legendary year in review author, and one of the sharpest economic

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minds out there. We tear into why his 2015 bubble warnings weren't wrong just early engines on fire,

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yet the fix is climbing higher. Dave exposes deep fakes, media manipulation, and a reality

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you can't trust. After 45 years of nonstop gains, we're stuck in a complacency bubble.

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Society's completely unprepared. Dave's 17-year year-in-review streak? Zero regrets. Zero cringes.

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Strap in for raw truth on corruption, fake jobs, market insanity, and why keeping your head on a

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swivel has never mattered more. Thank you for tuning in. Please like, subscribe, drop a five-star

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review and share your favorite episodes. Please support the show directly on Fountain for early

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ad-free access. Hit up thebitcoinmatrix.com for the newsletter Dope Merchandise and to connect

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with me directly. Thank you for listening. Your support keeps the Bitcoin Matrix independent.

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And thank you.

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I appreciate you all.

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And now let's enter the Bitcoin matrix with my good friend, Dave Colum.

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What is real?

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How do you define freedom?

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You can't jump into cash.

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Cash is trash.

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What do you do?

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You get out.

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Welcome back to the Bitcoin Matrix for the 9,000th time.

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How are you, Dave?

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Do I hold your record?

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Do I?

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I might be close.

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You might have some hodlers.

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You might have some hodlers.

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But you can swing a bat and hit a hodler.

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Yeah, I think there's a couple guys with five or six and four, but no one has eight or nine now.

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Yeah, you're sort of glutton for punishment by that model.

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Well, you're prolific.

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I love checking in with you and hearing what you think.

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You know, tons of hot, great takes.

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And, you know, I think in a lot of ways, we're both willing to have strong opinions held loosely if new information comes up.

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Because that's all we've been doing is peeling back this layer.

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I just read your 20, 25 year in review, error 404.

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We're going to get into it, but I think we kind of have to start with 2026 and Davos and maybe Trump.

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You know, Davos, I'm picking up shards of Davos.

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I'm not keeping up well because I've had a full plate.

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I'm teaching double O this semester because I didn't teach last semester.

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And Davos is one of those topics where you could go bananas trying to understand it and getting not within, you know, a three iron of the truth.

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And so I've been picking up some shards that are terrifying.

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The ones that I've been picking up tell me that the Davos guys are up to no good, as usual.

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I'm watching Andrew Ross Sorkin moderate, and it's pretty clear he's being groomed to be a Devosian,

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you know, one of the Devosian leaders.

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I just finished his book, 1929, and noticed several things.

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The first is irrelevant.

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He's got a funny eye.

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You watch him in an interview.

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He's got a lizard eye thing going.

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He probably got hit in the eye when he was a kid or something.

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I just noticed it, though.

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Someone else in the comment section mentioned it.

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I'm not convinced he wrote the book.

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I'm not convinced.

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It's a...

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He won't...

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I'm listening to the audiobook.

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It sounds like him reading it.

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Could be AI, but I'm not picking up the AI flavor,

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although I can't rule it out.

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But twice he mentioned McKay's classic, you know,

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1848 treatment on manias and panics and shit.

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and twice he refers to it not as McKay but as McCad.

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Now either Andrew doesn't know what the hell he's talking about

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because anyone in his world should know it's McKay not McCad

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or some AI reader did it.

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But here's the problem.

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I was kind of entertained by it and a friend of mine said I bought it, I read it,

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I thought it sucked.

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I thought I was just rehashing a bunch of crap.

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And I thought about it and I said, you know, you could take 10 books on 1929.

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You take Galbraith and a handful of others.

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send it through an AI program and say, write me a book.

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And you get a new book.

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It would just pull pieces from the different books and give you a new book.

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I thought it was very banker-friendly.

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It in no way criticized the Fed.

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In no way criticized FDR.

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Seemed to not give Hoover the credit I think he actually deserves.

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Was critical of the Fed for popping the bubble.

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It just, everything about it seemed not quite right.

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And so I'm wondering if he didn't write it and he didn't read it in the audio.

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And, you know, it's just the problem we face in this modern era.

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In any event, Davos.

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So there he is in Davos being groomed sort of like Ben Shapiro gets groomed for his thing, right?

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You know, you get this feeling.

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You can see these young leaders being brought up through the system.

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I was listening to Larry Fink, and he had this excerpt where he talked about how everything,

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Currency, everything.

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Stocks, bonds, everything is to be brought on one gigantic blockchain.

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And again, as I've said to you, the hodlers, who are usually pretty fiercely independent people,

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have been cheering about the fact that guys like Larry Fink are embracing Bitcoin.

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I go, I think he's going to run you down.

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I think he's not your friend.

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There's no way Larry Fink gives a shit about hodlers, right?

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This is absolutely a guarantee.

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and when he talks about the blockchain

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he doesn't talk about Bitcoin. He's talking about

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blockchain, right? So I think he's

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going to try to absorb everything into this

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blockchain and it's going to be like the Borg.

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I really think it's going to be, I think it's

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a potential

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path to an

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aristocracy and to an

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authoritarian state. Yeah, I agree with

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everything you just said. Yeah,

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Andrew Ross Sarkin could hire someone for

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$50,000 to write his book.

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It could easily be ghostwritten,

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even if it was handwritten. And I want to

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read you know i just i spoke to aaron day i had him on the show and it's fascinating conversation

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about technocracy and you wrote the moment you realize well there's a meme and then you write

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we are now living in a technocracy that is changing too fast to metabolize

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what futurist alvin toffler back in 1970 referred to as future shock we travel through life guided

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by our metaphorical gps we no longer know the complete route to our destination only the next

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turn, and it doesn't always work. My internal GPS device is now randomly rerouting me,

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constantly flipping to new directions, causing dysfunction, the magnitude of which will become

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clear shortly. Facts do not stay factual. The past is like a Tarantino film where history is

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rewritten to control the narrative. I can no longer trust my lying eyes. As Brett Weinstein

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so incisively noted, somebody has intentionally broken all of our fact-checking mechanisms.

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And you even noted a quick anecdote about your son driving and they're getting directions and they end up at like three o'clock in the morning at like a pier.

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And it's like you should take the next ferry out of here at 6 a.m. in March.

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And it's like December.

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Yeah, right.

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It's just a broken, fragmented world.

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And we've all had the experience where we actually go somewhere we know and for some reason we decide to use the GPS anyway so we get fucked up by it.

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Right?

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and and you can really get screwed up where you're driving down and it says take the next

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right-hand turn on route such and such east and the next right-hand turn is such and such west

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and you just don't know what to do at that point and yeah and sure and so um and i've been asking

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i had lunch today with a guy and i i mentioned two things two historical events and i said they

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botched it they seemed to overplay it but did they actually overplay it or did they overplay it on

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purpose and that they're just they're screwing with us right so let's start with COVID right

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so the COVID story you could you could argue that if you really wanted to get the public to

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vaccinate and at the end to get the public to embrace the modern health care system then they

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boned it because I you know if you're still an enthusiastic vaccine guy you know as I like to

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say you need a CAT scan because because you don't know if they work you don't know what's in them

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you don't know if they've changed like your your flu vaccine you say well I get it every year I go

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do you know what's in it this year? They're not going to tell you that they've changed the

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technology. For all you know, you're going to get an mRNA gene-altering vaccine for the flu this year.

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So I personally will never get another vaccine, with the exception that if some goddamn pandemic

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is ripping through the world and it is demonstrably, you know, 10% fatality, then they'll say,

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okay, fuck it. You know, I got to do it. That might even be the plan. The next one might be,

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and here's what it'll do is it'll take out all the anti-vaxxers because they won't vaccinate and

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they'll all die. So the question is, did they overplay it? You know, they told kids to get it

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and everyone knew kids didn't need to. They told pregnant women to get it. Everyone knows that a

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pregnant woman never does anything like that. That's just insanity. They had heads of pediatric

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society. I just read this. I had to reread all my urine reviews. They had heads of National

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Pediatric Society saying the vaccine is safe for pregnant women five months into the vaccine.

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And so I'm going, so we haven't even delivered the first COVID baby yet. And I read the Pfizer

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papers. They had out of 33 pregnancies, they had 28 miscarriages, right? The Pfizer paper showed

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that the vaccine was wreaking havoc. And those are Pfizer's notes. Those are Pfizer's results.

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So they knew everything that was going wrong. And we knew everything. So as I read, to explain why

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I read it.

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Bob Moriarty's binding every year in a review I've written.

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17 years.

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It turns out it's going to be 17 volumes.

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The most extraordinary thing that even baffles me is like the year 2021 in book form.

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It's a smaller book.

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It's not an 8.5 by 11, so the page is smaller and you fit in less on it.

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2021 was 550 pages.

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I write them in the fall.

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I have no idea how I wrote that.

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I can't even remember reliving that.

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How do you write 550 pages in the fall?

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William F. Buckley couldn't do that, for Christ's sake, right?

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And I remember bleeding it into the January, maybe even February,

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but it's still a crash course.

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So I was reading what I wrote about pandemics,

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what I wrote about January 6th, about Epstein,

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about the shootings in Vegas.

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And it was shocking to me what I had written, how much I'd forgotten about what I had written and how bad the situations were.

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The vaccine story was horrific.

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And the things they did to people who refused and the firing doctors who refused to sell the vaccine to their patients and stuff.

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It was real authoritarianism.

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And so the question is, did they overplay it or was that their goal?

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I don't know.

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What if there was an achieved goal we're not aware of?

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Well, you mean like we're all going to die 15 years faster than we're supposed to?

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Some people said that's already happened in some ways.

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But also, let's say that didn't come to fruition.

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Maybe that wasn't a goal.

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Maybe there was just, and I'm riffing here, but batch testing.

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I know.

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So maybe everyone got a different batch and you have subtle differences.

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I have no idea.

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But, like, I can't see.

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And maybe it was just a test run and it feels overplayed to us, but they're still measuring where.

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Well, if you tell pregnant women to get a vaccine that's experimental, you're overplaying it.

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I mean, wasn't 9-11 overplayed in the framework of this conversation we're having?

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Well, yeah.

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You know, and I think they achieved all their goals with the Patriot Act.

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Well, so then they didn't overplay it is the key.

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That's my...

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I don't think...

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If I was...

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I'm trying to pontificate here.

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I have the feeling that they're very happy with the way things are going.

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And so their goal was not to make us be ignorant of what they did.

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They don't care about that.

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So the third one I'll mention is Israel's response to October 7th.

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If their goal was to moral capital, which they presumed to have after October 7th,

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and then use that to achieve their...

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Their goals are obvious, right?

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To squeegee the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and stuff free of Palestinians.

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If they thought that the moral capital would allow them to do that, have no one bitch, they overplayed it.

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But if their thought was, we don't care, 10 years from now, no one's going to remember,

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and we're going to have those tracts of land all to ourselves,

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and we're going to take a beating now, but long run, we're fine, then they didn't overplay it, right?

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So all these issues in which they seem to do a shitty job really getting away with it,

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you have to ask do they really care about really getting away with it Or did they just say fuck him we just going to mow them down Health insurance is broken I know it You know it So an open enrollment rolls around and all those health insurance companies start hoping

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you'll just re-sign, eyes closed, for the same overpriced plan with confusing fine print.

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It feels like they're betting on your inaction, but we deserve better than that.

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241
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Yeah, that's I mean, I think if you zoom out, I think most things are going to plan.

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It seems like to me, it seems like, you know, going back to technocracy and the Aaron Day conversation I had with him.

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So that goes back to the 1930s, too. That's a that's a that's right. But I think the point I want to make in recent times is that more happened on a technocratic front with, I think, Trump in office than ever would have happened if Harris won.

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I think the speed of things went much faster with Larry Fink and the tokenization of the

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it's I think stable coins will be mainstream and near 100% use for most things in America

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within 18 months if not deposit tokens and maybe there will be you know a difference between where

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you can get yield right I think I do think everything will be tokenized I think they're

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to go what much further i think they're going to tokenize rainforest say which what for what

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purpose here here's where we can uh say we're going to extract minerals and wealth from future

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and you can monetize it and sell bonds and i think they're looking that's just inflation

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yeah i think i don't think i don't i don't think you need and surveillance i think it's all of it

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it it's surveillance i see no evidence i see no evidence that they need an excuse to add more

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liquidity to the system they seem to be willing to do it at will so did so so so they talk about

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it like we can use the you know we can use the uh you know u.s resources as collateral right that's

255
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kind of what you're saying is use this collateral well i'm going more internationally but everywhere

256
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so right in poor countries undeveloped countries third world nations they'll monetize

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oh well they could sell it to us then sort of thing what i mean and they say the future value

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and we can issue debt greenland put it on the on the on the blockchain and the fact that he's

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talking about one blockchain that's an extremely scary thing uh to go to your point i think that

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elon musk is in charge of rolling out the social credit score system i think these things are

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moving very i mean i think the the the doge was it was a data harvesting operation uh i still have

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this i think Hillary Clinton and again i'm not trying to pick sides i'm looking at this

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objectively if someone on the left said we're bringing in someone besides Elon Musk but maybe

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Bill Gates to harvest all the data the right would not have allowed that and then i think the

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you know so i think they have this back and forth so during the four years of Biden Biden you know

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has the they use him as a figurehead to be like oh well we had this mistake in Afghanistan

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leaving and that's Biden he's an idiot and uh oh the border's a little looser and it's probably

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actually statistically maybe even not more open or less open but you know it's a good narrative and

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the right will sort of the left will support it because you know what I mean so I think they just

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use it as a pendulum to go back and forth and I think right now it's sort of the technocratic uh

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get everything as you fast as you can through the door with trump and vance and teal and musk

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and hopefully they get reelected and biden and biden and biden well so biden opened the borders

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well by the way so biden did operation choke point right so i'm saying they use biden to open the

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borders trump now rails against it so you get a digital border all these things are a ying and a

275
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yang that nothing is good for us and it's just used to whack them all both sides get them crazy

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on both sides have a food fight and nothing good comes at it for us they create problems on both

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sides create solutions on both sides that don't work that have opposite effects or different

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effects than we you know we voted for them i would think that most trump supporters are very

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unhappy right now i think there's some of us who have this ever so remote hope we're not

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understanding it. So here's the case for, I can button down Greenland and Venezuela in a way that

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I can live with. And that is, you look at Venezuela, it's not about drugs. There's no drugs in Venezuela.

282
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They were not a drug campaign. You'd go after Colombia if you wanted to go after drugs, right?

283
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As I said, you know, shooting cigar boats out of the water, those cigar boats hold enough drugs for

284
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Hunter Biden's weekend, right? I mean, they're just not, they're just, it achieves nothing, right?

285
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It's like, that'd be like drive-by shootings on guys selling nickel bags on the corners of the

286
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street, right? I'm not even sure it's about the oil because we can buy it from them. It could be

287
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defensive though. So let's say, let's say Venezuela's really about keeping the Chinese

288
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dirty little paws off Venezuela, right? And the Chinese are using a softer touch, I'm told.

289
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They're going into countries, countries where we go in and act like punk-ass bitches.

290
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They go in and say, let us build you some schools.

291
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Let us build you some highways.

292
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They're financing real improvements to make it seem like, oh, they're our best buddies.

293
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They're really helpful to us.

294
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So they're using the soft-touch approach.

295
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Now, so let us say optimistically, let's put the optimism meter to 11 and say Trump is doing something transformational.

296
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What is he doing?

297
00:20:36,070 --> 00:20:42,390
Well, it's possible that he's saying, look, we're going from a unipolar world, which I don't like at all.

298
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The unipolar world sits wrong with me because I don't think we should have 150 air bases, military bases all over the world.

299
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I think that's just crazy.

300
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It is time to pull back, in my opinion.

301
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And he's recognized that, and he's recognized we're going to have a multipolar world, and he's trying to get ahead of it.

302
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And what's he trying to do?

303
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Well, I think he's trying to say the Western Hemisphere is ours.

304
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And if you say that, so he's saying let's have a smaller footprint, good.

305
00:21:05,430 --> 00:21:09,870
and he's saying that small footprint includes controlling the Western Hemisphere.

306
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Keep your paws off.

307
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And I go, okay, I can kind of live with that thinking.

308
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Greenland, you say, well, why should we get it?

309
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And I go, well, why should Denmark have it?

310
00:21:19,250 --> 00:21:20,070
Let's start with that.

311
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How did Denmark get it?

312
00:21:21,410 --> 00:21:24,250
Well, what is it that got Greenland in control?

313
00:21:24,710 --> 00:21:26,550
It's not like a superpower, right?

314
00:21:27,050 --> 00:21:28,710
It's just, you know, we're a superpower.

315
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They're not.

316
00:21:29,270 --> 00:21:31,430
It's like, it's a Western Hemisphere.

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You know, and you can say, well, that's not fair.

318
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And I go, tell me, when in history has humanity been fair?

319
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William the Conqueror slaughtered people.

320
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He starved people to death.

321
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I'm still pissed at the Angles or the Saxons.

322
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I'm not even sure which one to be pissed at.

323
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And so Mao killed 80 million.

324
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Stalin killed 40 million.

325
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Since when do you think the peasants are going to get treated well in this world?

326
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They never do.

327
00:21:54,730 --> 00:21:59,590
We happened to grow up in a country where they were pretty good to us, all things considered.

328
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There's still an elite.

329
00:22:01,770 --> 00:22:09,230
there's still a ruling elite you know who who have really ultimate say over our well-being

330
00:22:09,230 --> 00:22:13,890
and fortunately we were in a place where they said but we'll treat you well we'll make it worth your

331
00:22:13,890 --> 00:22:19,630
your effort as opposed to starving us to death and things like that so in a multi-polar world

332
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grabbing up the western hemisphere and saying okay we're taking everything you know it's it's

333
00:22:24,730 --> 00:22:30,490
got a brutality to it but it's also represents a gigantic step towards pulling back which i'm

334
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happy with. Do you believe the official story that we went in, got Maduro with Iron Man soldiers?

335
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No. Okay. And then do you believe that Macron and Trump actually text each other over Greenland

336
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and territory? My Greenland narrative, which no one should take seriously, this is not a story

337
00:22:51,610 --> 00:22:56,410
that I've done. I can give you a much more coherent story about Charlie Kirk than Greenland.

338
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Let's put it that way. My Greenland story is that you could think of it as Denmark, Greenland, being analogous to the Louisiana Purchase.

339
00:23:05,950 --> 00:23:12,650
So the French had the Louisiana Territory. They knew they were going to lose it. They said, fuck it, let's sell it before they just take it.

340
00:23:12,910 --> 00:23:16,930
So Trump's saying, look, you can sell it, you can take it, we're going to take it one way or the other.

341
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Somehow, you know, we're going to end up with it. We'll pay you.

342
00:23:20,230 --> 00:23:24,750
Now, there's 57,000 Greenlanders. You offer to pay each of them a million dollars.

343
00:23:24,750 --> 00:23:27,850
And if someone said, well, why do Greenlanders want a million dollars?

344
00:23:27,950 --> 00:23:31,510
I go, would you please rethink that thought just briefly?

345
00:23:32,110 --> 00:23:34,410
You know, maybe they'd like a new fishing boat.

346
00:23:34,990 --> 00:23:38,290
Maybe they'd need a new roof on that shack of theirs up in Greenland.

347
00:23:38,470 --> 00:23:40,550
Maybe they'd like to have a better snowmobile.

348
00:23:41,790 --> 00:23:44,270
They'll figure out what to do with a million dollars apiece, right?

349
00:23:44,590 --> 00:23:46,990
And so the Greenlanders could be bought off.

350
00:23:47,170 --> 00:23:52,530
Denmark, you say, okay, we'll send you a little money just to shut you up, but you don't matter.

351
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You're irrelevant. You're a bunch of happy cloggers.

352
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I think Maduro knew we were coming.

353
00:23:57,650 --> 00:24:00,890
It's even arguable that he was happy to get extracted

354
00:24:00,890 --> 00:24:04,170
because it's better than getting a knife up your ass like Gaddafi.

355
00:24:04,590 --> 00:24:08,970
Being an ex-dictator is a very precarious job description.

356
00:24:09,230 --> 00:24:10,550
Ex-dictators die.

357
00:24:10,870 --> 00:24:13,630
So when he realized that the game was over,

358
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he probably said, come and get me.

359
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I do not want to die the kind of death that Gaddafi died or that Saddam died.

360
00:24:20,310 --> 00:24:22,350
So for all we know, he's going to be treated well.

361
00:24:22,350 --> 00:24:26,890
I don't know. He cut some deal. It was way too civilized. It was so perfect.

362
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He was so happy. Thumbs up.

363
00:24:29,710 --> 00:24:34,850
Get me out of here. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Get me out of here because they're going to kill me if you don't.

364
00:24:34,910 --> 00:24:36,310
The story that were planted after.

365
00:24:36,470 --> 00:24:41,850
I can't think the tangent there that we don't have to go down is the Bush family, the CIA,

366
00:24:42,170 --> 00:24:46,030
Jeb Bush going there to set up the banking infrastructure in the 2000s, the CIA,

367
00:24:46,170 --> 00:24:48,610
and some drug running, I would think, coming out of it as well.

368
00:24:48,670 --> 00:24:50,610
I know it's minuscule compared to Colombia.

369
00:24:50,610 --> 00:24:53,590
Well, if you're really fighting drugs, it's irrelevant.

370
00:24:54,070 --> 00:24:54,870
Yeah, I agree with that.

371
00:24:55,010 --> 00:24:58,010
I got to ask them, what's the Charlie Kirk story that you put a beat on?

372
00:24:58,310 --> 00:25:06,170
Well, Charlie Kirk, ultimately, you make me bet a million bucks, you got to bet on Israel having whacked him.

373
00:25:06,450 --> 00:25:09,630
I mean, everything says it wasn't Tyler Robinson.

374
00:25:09,730 --> 00:25:10,570
Here's my prediction.

375
00:25:10,770 --> 00:25:13,610
If I am correct, Tyler Robinson will not go to court.

376
00:25:14,410 --> 00:25:15,390
They will plea it out.

377
00:25:15,390 --> 00:25:22,110
I was on a Zoom call with Bobby Kennedy one day, and he started talking about the Sirhan Sirhan conviction for killing his father.

378
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And he said, I ignored it for years.

379
00:25:24,030 --> 00:25:25,970
And so I said, Bobby, you've got to look at it.

380
00:25:26,270 --> 00:25:30,710
He said, there is no chance they could have convicted Sirhan Sirhan in a court of law.

381
00:25:30,830 --> 00:25:31,730
No chance.

382
00:25:32,010 --> 00:25:34,630
There was nothing that pointed to him being the killer.

383
00:25:34,990 --> 00:25:35,230
Nothing.

384
00:25:35,450 --> 00:25:40,050
And I think Tyler Robinson, they'll say, look, we're going to do this hard way or easy way.

385
00:25:40,530 --> 00:25:41,550
You know, we're going to.

386
00:25:41,550 --> 00:25:45,150
And, you know, he should, if he did it, he should be executed.

387
00:25:45,390 --> 00:25:48,610
and that's not going to happen, but he's not going to go to court

388
00:25:48,610 --> 00:25:51,050
because they're not going to go through the discovery process

389
00:25:51,050 --> 00:25:53,550
because they'll get annihilated.

390
00:25:53,970 --> 00:25:56,390
Everything points to an alternative story.

391
00:25:56,670 --> 00:25:59,130
The problem is that as soon as it's not Tyler,

392
00:25:59,550 --> 00:26:02,030
then you say, well, who's up then? Who is it then?

393
00:26:02,510 --> 00:26:04,510
You've got to go straight to Israel.

394
00:26:04,670 --> 00:26:06,010
Now, it might not be Israel,

395
00:26:06,010 --> 00:26:10,390
but they're certainly the ones with motive, with skill,

396
00:26:10,390 --> 00:26:17,270
you know with you know all these stories of you know Charlie turning against Israel for the last

397
00:26:17,270 --> 00:26:22,250
few months and you know personal calls from Netanyahu and Charlie saying fuck off I don't

398
00:26:22,250 --> 00:26:27,110
want anything to do with you and next thing you know boom he's shot right did they overplay that

399
00:26:27,110 --> 00:26:32,390
one right I don't know maybe the goal was to say by the way if you go against this we're going to

400
00:26:32,390 --> 00:26:38,290
shoot you and Charlie was still you know when you hang people in the town squares to get the people

401
00:26:38,290 --> 00:26:39,670
who are still alive to behave.

402
00:26:39,770 --> 00:26:41,030
It's not the dead guy.

403
00:26:41,150 --> 00:26:42,330
It's not to get the dead guy.

404
00:26:43,070 --> 00:26:44,410
It's to get the people in the town square

405
00:26:44,410 --> 00:26:45,650
getting a note to self.

406
00:26:45,990 --> 00:26:47,330
Don't do that.

407
00:26:47,530 --> 00:26:49,810
So maybe Charlie Kirk was note to self.

408
00:26:49,950 --> 00:26:51,030
Don't turn against Israel.

409
00:26:51,450 --> 00:26:52,450
And what do you think of Trump?

410
00:26:52,610 --> 00:26:56,630
And is he against the deep state or?

411
00:26:57,370 --> 00:26:59,370
And the reason I asked that in that way,

412
00:26:59,470 --> 00:27:01,610
I mean, do you think Trump actually looks at,

413
00:27:01,690 --> 00:27:03,510
like, I get what you're saying about,

414
00:27:03,990 --> 00:27:05,130
it's a very plausible theory.

415
00:27:05,130 --> 00:27:06,530
Trump's trying to align the cards

416
00:27:06,530 --> 00:27:07,990
in the Western hemisphere.

417
00:27:08,290 --> 00:27:11,070
get our ducks in a row going to a multipolar world.

418
00:27:11,250 --> 00:27:15,010
We want to protect sort of the bring maybe manufacturing back home.

419
00:27:15,150 --> 00:27:17,690
Maybe home is the greater Americas in this.

420
00:27:17,770 --> 00:27:23,190
Maybe manufacturing goes to the global south and maybe we have minerals in Greenland

421
00:27:23,190 --> 00:27:26,830
and this is to protect ourselves and it's like the Louisiana Purchase.

422
00:27:27,230 --> 00:27:29,550
But do you really think it's him looking at the board?

423
00:27:30,230 --> 00:27:33,570
Do you really think it's him deciding that like we could pull off the operation

424
00:27:33,570 --> 00:27:36,470
or we should negotiate with Maduro now to bring him in?

425
00:27:36,470 --> 00:27:37,770
As opposed to who?

426
00:27:37,770 --> 00:27:40,530
As opposed to a team behind him that is really-

427
00:27:40,530 --> 00:27:52,280
Well it the same thing though It like the CEO of Merck gets credit for what happened If Merck does well the CEO of Merck gets a pay raise right Right right Because well I mean none of this is popular

428
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:53,720
Well, I should say none of this.

429
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,780
In fact, what you've got to pray is that it's not just Trump making these calls.

430
00:27:58,300 --> 00:28:02,820
Yeah, I mean, but I don't think it is on either side or ever has been.

431
00:28:02,900 --> 00:28:04,220
No, he has advisors.

432
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:09,100
Whether he actually listens to them is more in doubt than any previous president, right?

433
00:28:09,100 --> 00:28:14,300
He is the one who you could imagine just saying, screw off, I don't care, more than anyone else.

434
00:28:14,620 --> 00:28:17,280
But Biden was not in control at all.

435
00:28:17,820 --> 00:28:19,940
Biden scares me much more than Trump.

436
00:28:20,220 --> 00:28:20,800
Here's the analogy.

437
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:27,800
You think it's a different, I could see sort of inter-power, intra-party power struggles.

438
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:36,000
If you think there's a uniparty and they just have two teams for show and kayfabe and the art of the theater of politics, in my opinion.

439
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:41,800
And they might actually fight over different things because there's benefits to being the one that's currently in power.

440
00:28:41,900 --> 00:28:45,300
And there's benefits, I think, to being the antagonistic party.

441
00:28:45,420 --> 00:28:51,420
I think it's almost in American politics gone to the point where the more powerful party is the one that's out of power.

442
00:28:51,940 --> 00:28:52,940
They all agree.

443
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,440
They all agree they just want to be reelected.

444
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,040
And they all want to print money.

445
00:28:58,260 --> 00:28:59,980
I mean, they don't tend to differ.

446
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,520
They all make a fortune staying in power.

447
00:29:02,900 --> 00:29:04,900
They're all making a fortune staying in power.

448
00:29:04,900 --> 00:29:07,880
So if you're on the losing team, you're still making a fortune.

449
00:29:08,300 --> 00:29:12,440
Yeah, so I'm saying it's a great fight to have, and it doesn't have to be real between them or personal.

450
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,380
They're all benefiting along the way, is my thinking.

451
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:23,560
And I don't think it matters to the real power structure that stays the whole time who's in charge.

452
00:29:23,660 --> 00:29:29,260
I think they orchestrate that dance of who's in charge and control the candidates that get in.

453
00:29:29,660 --> 00:29:32,700
And so they control, you know, they win either way every time.

454
00:29:32,700 --> 00:29:38,880
Well, so here's an example of how that might play out in unbelievably brutal, straightforward terms.

455
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:44,920
If you subscribe to the notion that the 2020 election was rigged, which I do, I think the data is very strong.

456
00:29:45,180 --> 00:29:51,400
You have to then point to, you know, Dominion, Smartmatic, which ultimately traces to a company in Beijing.

457
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,660
Prior to that, elections were run by Diebold.

458
00:29:54,800 --> 00:30:00,460
The Smartmatic CEO or the Dominion CEO was on the Biden transition team.

459
00:30:00,460 --> 00:30:03,560
So you go, that's really tasteless looking, right?

460
00:30:04,060 --> 00:30:08,600
I just don't think the guy who runs the voting machine should be on a transition team for the guy who won.

461
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:13,480
Prior to that was Diebold, and the Diebold CEO was on the Bush transition team.

462
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:19,600
One could argue that they passed the ability to rig the election from one team to the other.

463
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,660
And there's WikiLeaks talking about rigging swing states and stuff.

464
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,860
So it's quite possible that the teams are just kind of agreeing,

465
00:30:26,860 --> 00:30:30,400
look, I'll tell you what, you don't do this and we'll give you the presidency next time.

466
00:30:30,500 --> 00:30:31,180
You know, that sort of thing.

467
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,560
I think it's like the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Senators.

468
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,820
Yeah, is it the Senators or the Generals?

469
00:30:39,060 --> 00:30:39,940
The Generals, yeah.

470
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:41,480
I don't know which one it is.

471
00:30:41,540 --> 00:30:43,320
I've been saying Generals, but I could have been wrong.

472
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:43,760
I forget.

473
00:30:45,140 --> 00:30:47,200
Well, I think, yeah, either way, but it's the same point.

474
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:48,080
Yeah, same idea.

475
00:30:48,260 --> 00:30:48,840
It's just a game.

476
00:30:49,420 --> 00:30:53,720
Yeah, and the owners own both teams and people go and, you know,

477
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:58,460
nine out of ten fans uh want to see the harlem globetrotters do their thing and win and some

478
00:30:58,460 --> 00:31:04,100
people are one out of ten are rooting for the the underdogs to spoil it for the first time in history

479
00:31:04,100 --> 00:31:08,500
you know and yeah yeah yeah those people are really dreaming yeah yeah and there are probably

480
00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:13,460
some uh who some some uh basketball players who dream of being on the globetrotters and some who

481
00:31:13,460 --> 00:31:19,300
dream of being on the villain right it's just you know so general mcgregor doug mcgregor

482
00:31:19,300 --> 00:31:22,740
paraphrase someone, I think. I think it came well before him, but he said,

483
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:29,440
he said every four years we have an election and we elect John McCain. And that pretty much says

484
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:35,960
it, right? You elect Obama, you give him the Nobel Prize eight days into his presidency,

485
00:31:36,780 --> 00:31:42,480
and then he bombs seven Muslim countries. Liberal Democrats are not supposed to do that in theory.

486
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,800
In practice, of course they'll do that because they're not really making the calls.

487
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,680
When it comes to Bitcoin, the rules are simple.

488
00:31:50,260 --> 00:31:54,620
Run your own node, hold your own keys, and protect your seed phrase.

489
00:31:55,260 --> 00:31:57,080
That's where MicroSeed comes in.

490
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,300
Unlike bulky backups, MicroSeed is stamped onto a tiny steel washer.

491
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:08,580
Fireproof, waterproof, and so small you can carry it anywhere or hide it in plain sight.

492
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:14,240
Go to MicroSeed.io and use the code MATRIX for a discount on your order.

493
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:20,760
I think this is what I mean I grew up very liberal progressive when I think it was very

494
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,520
anti-government right and and sort of some of the things that they took on weren't things like

495
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,480
you know I believe in this but it's like I believe others should have the right to do it and

496
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:34,840
government shouldn't tell you what you can and can't do and it was a little hippie more hippie

497
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:40,960
dippy but a lot more freedom oriented and screw the state and go do your thing so I viewed it the

498
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:55,800
I used to phrase that as I used to say the liberals, it was like a husband-wife team where the mom's in charge of making sure the kids stay alive and dad's in charge of making sure that mom doesn't turn them into a couple of pussies, right?

499
00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:08,920
And I think the liberals suffered from sort of an exaggerated utopianism and the conservatives suffered from sort of a bloated pragmatism.

500
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:13,800
So the conservatives seemed like sort of overly hard-ass, the liberals seemed overly clueless.

501
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:19,040
And so the two combined produce offspring that somehow function, right?

502
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,480
And so I don't know where we're at now.

503
00:33:23,580 --> 00:33:28,380
What I do know is that if I were a Democrat, I'd be mad, especially if I hated Trump.

504
00:33:28,580 --> 00:33:32,680
I don't hate Trump. He baffles me, but I don't hate him.

505
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,460
And I notice this to be true, too.

506
00:33:34,460 --> 00:33:40,280
When the election was over and they had been told, vote for first Biden and then Harris,

507
00:33:40,500 --> 00:33:42,440
because you're going for anything but Trump.

508
00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:43,820
And then he won anyways.

509
00:33:44,100 --> 00:33:47,980
And they're going, my party just totally destroyed itself.

510
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,400
We just put up two complete morons.

511
00:33:50,700 --> 00:33:56,500
Instead of putting up a viable, here's, could Trump have beat a Gabbard Kennedy ticket?

512
00:33:56,860 --> 00:33:58,220
They had it right in their fingertips.

513
00:33:58,560 --> 00:33:59,200
They had it right there.

514
00:33:59,380 --> 00:34:03,420
That's why I think it was all by design, because RFK ran as a Republican.

515
00:34:04,380 --> 00:34:04,820
Eventually.

516
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:06,560
He could have been a Democrat.

517
00:34:07,100 --> 00:34:07,320
Right.

518
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:11,420
And I think he's more, he would have had more of his family's backing.

519
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:12,360
Yeah.

520
00:34:12,500 --> 00:34:12,900
Which is immense.

521
00:34:13,260 --> 00:34:17,320
Like, none of these decisions made sense unless you were trying to craft it towards Trump.

522
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,760
And it all crystallized for me with Butler.

523
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:24,960
I said, wow, the deep state wants you to think that he's somehow the enemy of the deep state.

524
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:31,720
And I think that the whole thinking there, my calculus was the Trump supporters and the people who are on the fringe

525
00:34:31,720 --> 00:34:35,520
just do not have the energy again for another Trump four years

526
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,500
and the conversation at Thanksgiving.

527
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:39,660
But they really wanted Trump in.

528
00:34:40,420 --> 00:34:43,020
And that's why I think they – and I'm not even going to say the worst candidate.

529
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,780
I don't think Harris was a good candidate.

530
00:34:44,780 --> 00:34:51,080
But I think that the way they rolled the whole thing with Biden jumping out last minute

531
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,780
after the primaries looking incredibly not democratic in form and function

532
00:34:55,780 --> 00:34:59,800
is by design to kind of get the other side to be like, enough, enough.

533
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:06,660
You know, and all this is to and I don't think any of the voting is real, but I think they have to have the voting close enough so that it's believable.

534
00:35:07,380 --> 00:35:08,420
Even it's the same thing.

535
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,400
You can root for Hulk Hogan.

536
00:35:11,660 --> 00:35:13,680
You don't need control of 98 senators.

537
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:21,460
You need control of two to four and get the vote close enough that one or two or three senators is enough to push it any direction.

538
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:28,420
And you see it every time there's this big moment around a vote, like a water cooler moment or everyone's kind of like, what is the Senate going to do?

539
00:35:28,420 --> 00:35:32,880
there's always the last minute senator who comes in and votes completely opposite of everything

540
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:37,220
they were voted in for and what their party stands for. Surprise, surprise. Right. Right.

541
00:35:37,220 --> 00:35:43,640
They even put up a lot of different bills with a lot of different things in it that none of which

542
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:49,060
will pass, but gives everybody something where they can say, I voted for this and the opposing

543
00:35:49,060 --> 00:35:56,620
team voted it down. Now, where you can really see this during, what was it? Which hearings were they?

544
00:35:56,620 --> 00:35:58,740
was it the Kavanaugh?

545
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,040
One of the hearings they had,

546
00:36:01,140 --> 00:36:02,400
I don't think it was Kavanaugh.

547
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,500
I think it was the,

548
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,360
who was that fucking guy

549
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,200
who was on the same lacrosse team

550
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:09,160
with John Kerry,

551
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,360
who was the guy who ran the hearings

552
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:13,060
for years?

553
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:14,580
It begins with a B, whatever.

554
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,860
They had these extensive hearings

555
00:36:16,860 --> 00:36:17,760
and in the morning,

556
00:36:18,140 --> 00:36:18,520
you would say,

557
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:19,080
holy shit,

558
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:20,420
they beat the crap out of Trump.

559
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:21,660
I mean, they just got him,

560
00:36:21,700 --> 00:36:22,440
they got him, they got him.

561
00:36:22,620 --> 00:36:23,620
And then in the afternoon,

562
00:36:24,140 --> 00:36:25,120
they'd recant

563
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:26,480
and they'd look like total assholes.

564
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:31,920
the same guys and so when the news came cnn could show clips from the morning and facts could show

565
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:37,920
clips from the afternoon and you you'd go this is just to give news clips just to give just to give

566
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:42,080
talking points sometimes some of these events that any event you know that becomes national

567
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:48,320
conversation i think is sus and you say okay that probably happens every day in america but this

568
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,720
one's brought to the forefront but each time it happens and you again without taking sides you

569
00:36:52,720 --> 00:36:57,120
You could point to sort of Kavanaugh, the kid was a cow written house, right?

570
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:02,920
These events where they're just perfect Rorschach tests and to go into the echo chambers and

571
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,820
where one side feels emphatic 100% that their side's in the right.

572
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:08,360
And I think this is by design.

573
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:12,880
These in a way that like either they happen every day or some of them might even be like

574
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:13,200
AI.

575
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:17,740
I have no idea, but they release them when that they want that conversation to go in

576
00:37:17,740 --> 00:37:18,320
a certain direction.

577
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:22,700
And then when I divide us on a certain topic or I don't know if it's as far as like,

578
00:37:22,720 --> 00:37:24,960
like, oh, there's a news event and they want to distract us.

579
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:26,580
It seems that way sometimes.

580
00:37:26,720 --> 00:37:28,920
It just could be flood the zone.

581
00:37:29,940 --> 00:37:34,180
So here's what I'll tell you is I think for the last decade at least,

582
00:37:34,180 --> 00:37:39,240
for quite a while, the really absurd shit looked like it was coming from the left to me.

583
00:37:39,580 --> 00:37:45,760
So it seemed to me one of the reasons I'm having trouble now is because of the shift in the politics.

584
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,860
I'm not quite adjusting to it very quickly.

585
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,260
But things like the left supported no voter ID, right?

586
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:52,080
Just shoot them.

587
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,620
Yeah, no, some of these are just like, I agree.

588
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:55,360
They're just insanity.

589
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,920
They're just, the left, this left seemed to be behind the open borders.

590
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,020
By the way, the open borders aren't just open borders.

591
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,440
We've had Mexicans getting across the border all the time.

592
00:38:03,740 --> 00:38:04,440
What was the problem?

593
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:05,380
There was no problem.

594
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:10,500
They came over, they picked grapes, they picked vegetables, they mowed lawns, they shipped money back.

595
00:38:10,700 --> 00:38:12,260
It was part of the economy.

596
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:19,440
What happened in Biden's administration is we set up NGOs, we shipped people across the border from all over the world.

597
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:30,140
And the guys who went down to the Darien Gap, guys like Michael Yan or Brett Weinstein and Chris Martinson and guys I know went down to the Darien Gap and looked at what was going on.

598
00:38:30,300 --> 00:38:36,020
There were multiple, multiple organizations pulling these guys over the border.

599
00:38:36,140 --> 00:38:38,240
So there was a Chinese immigration.

600
00:38:38,540 --> 00:38:40,000
And you'd talk to the Chinese guys.

601
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:40,880
They were standoffish.

602
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,200
They didn't want anything to do with you.

603
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:43,480
They were well-dressed.

604
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,780
They were ready for crossing the border.

605
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:47,780
They were very standoffish.

606
00:38:47,780 --> 00:38:49,120
This was China.

607
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:53,120
planting undocumented people inside the United States.

608
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:57,280
For whatever purpose, heaven only knows, but it's not a good one.

609
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,280
And yet they're shipping people from North Africa.

610
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,360
These are not people we should be recruiting to the United States.

611
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,080
It's not Ellis Island. This is a very different world.

612
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:12,400
And we were using NGOs and taxpayer dollars to fly them here,

613
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,960
to get them up from South America.

614
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,560
These guys didn't come from 2,000 miles away on foot to get to the border.

615
00:39:20,140 --> 00:39:26,000
And so Mayorkas should be, you know, tried in front of a jury of his peers and hung, right?

616
00:39:26,060 --> 00:39:28,460
I mean, it was totally treasonous what he did.

617
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,660
But there was this whole system set up to do it.

618
00:39:31,660 --> 00:39:34,840
And I don't remember the Republicans calling out the NGOs.

619
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,960
If I were king of the world, the first thing I'd do is I'd get rid of every NGO.

620
00:39:39,620 --> 00:39:42,480
I'd say anything that's an NGO, just get rid of it.

621
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:49,980
And then start over and say, OK, now we will let you make your case for why you should be brought back.

622
00:39:50,100 --> 00:39:51,400
But I'd vaporize them.

623
00:39:51,540 --> 00:39:58,840
OK, so this is sort of this like maybe I get where you're saying, because I think propaganda, I think, is is the crutch of all this.

624
00:39:58,900 --> 00:40:06,800
I think and I think propaganda really found a way to succeed at a greater level on the left because you could take victimhood and turn it into being a hero.

625
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:07,740
You can.

626
00:40:08,260 --> 00:40:09,940
Well, they did the George Floyd.

627
00:40:09,940 --> 00:40:13,820
both parties did the January 6th thing.

628
00:40:14,100 --> 00:40:16,300
So the January 6th thing, throwing those guys in jail.

629
00:40:16,500 --> 00:40:19,880
When I had to reread that section, I was vibrating.

630
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,000
I was so mad. I was livid.

631
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:26,360
The things that, putting, you know, a thousand guys in prison

632
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,620
before it happened on January 6th is just,

633
00:40:29,820 --> 00:40:32,920
I would find all the people who were signed off on that

634
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:34,280
and throw them all in prison.

635
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,640
I think it was treasonous what they did.

636
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:44,140
I think the fact that there were 274 FBI agents in there after they claimed to not know how many or they claimed,

637
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:49,200
the fact that out of 80 cops who were on the front line, four committed suicide, what the hell is that all about, right?

638
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,300
There were Ukrainian nationals in the crowd.

639
00:40:51,900 --> 00:40:55,800
Everything was wrong with January 6th, and we were putting grandmothers in prison.

640
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,840
It was just a horrible, horrible thing.

641
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:05,760
And there's plenty of evidence that the crowd was not going to storm the Capitol building,

642
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:14,720
But then they stirred it. They stirred it. The whole thing was, it was the left, or should we say, whatever team that was, smelled blitz.

643
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:20,880
And so they had the line let them through, and then they threw a screen pass right over their head. Right over their heads.

644
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:27,760
And so, but the problem is they used Joe Sixpacks. Only 18% of the guys arrested were jobless.

645
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,320
I mean, these were people who were there because they were really unhappy.

646
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:32,760
Putin nailed it.

647
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:47,870
Putin said I saw 500 guys go to the Capitol building because they had a grievance right So I could be convinced I got this wrong but I don think I do I think and both parties signed off on it

648
00:41:48,110 --> 00:41:49,390
Both parties signed off on it.

649
00:41:49,630 --> 00:41:50,990
The Republicans didn't say boo.

650
00:41:51,090 --> 00:41:53,510
They didn't scream about it, right?

651
00:41:54,970 --> 00:41:58,110
The guys in prison didn't have access to their lawyers.

652
00:41:58,330 --> 00:41:59,510
They didn't have access to the videotapes.

653
00:41:59,510 --> 00:42:03,950
videotapes. Find the guys who've denied him access and throw them in fucking jail for the

654
00:42:03,950 --> 00:42:10,250
rest of their fucking lives. I'm just that mad about that, right? One of those, if you ever do

655
00:42:10,250 --> 00:42:15,490
that again, we're not going to have a trial next time. We're going to line you up against a wall

656
00:42:15,490 --> 00:42:21,250
and shoot you. I want the government to fear the people again. I'm really mad at this point.

657
00:42:21,550 --> 00:42:28,610
Yeah. So I think in terms of, just to address the NGO thing, maybe the Trump regime gets rid

658
00:42:28,610 --> 00:42:30,930
of NGOs because there's propaganda.

659
00:42:31,730 --> 00:42:32,430
I don't think they did.

660
00:42:32,770 --> 00:42:33,370
I don't think they did.

661
00:42:33,450 --> 00:42:36,270
I think it just morphs into new things or it's left alone.

662
00:42:36,370 --> 00:42:37,910
But there's a story that they did.

663
00:42:37,910 --> 00:42:41,730
But it's sort of like they don't get rid of the Epsteins and Ditties of the world.

664
00:42:41,850 --> 00:42:46,850
They just move that to X and monitoring your email and monitoring your video that they

665
00:42:46,850 --> 00:42:50,650
have on you and your browsing history in all different ways.

666
00:42:50,750 --> 00:42:52,450
They don't need people movers anymore.

667
00:42:52,770 --> 00:42:55,850
They don't need the human people at the NGOs anymore, but they're still going to have that

668
00:42:55,850 --> 00:42:56,330
function.

669
00:42:56,330 --> 00:43:05,110
So I think what I mean by that is the left can create a problem or be the champions of a thing that, you know, humanity is like, well, that's not good.

670
00:43:05,310 --> 00:43:07,930
The right comes in and be like, we're going to not let that happen.

671
00:43:08,050 --> 00:43:11,650
But then they do it 10 times worse in a different way.

672
00:43:12,170 --> 00:43:14,550
In this case, let's say it goes from analog to digital.

673
00:43:14,670 --> 00:43:16,250
The left is like, we're going to do an analog.

674
00:43:16,710 --> 00:43:18,170
And the right is like, that's horrible.

675
00:43:18,870 --> 00:43:19,830
We're going to do X, Y, Z analog.

676
00:43:20,070 --> 00:43:21,050
X, Y, Z is horrible.

677
00:43:21,590 --> 00:43:22,690
Left is still analog.

678
00:43:23,430 --> 00:43:24,430
Fighting the ice.

679
00:43:24,430 --> 00:43:26,170
And ice is also analog, right?

680
00:43:26,330 --> 00:43:35,350
You, by the way, can't get rid of 10 million illegals by arming a bunch of cops and manually carrying them across the border.

681
00:43:35,590 --> 00:43:37,690
That's about as inefficient as imaginable.

682
00:43:37,710 --> 00:43:39,590
There's got to be a better way.

683
00:43:39,770 --> 00:43:40,690
There's got to be a better way.

684
00:43:41,070 --> 00:43:42,290
There's got to be a better way.

685
00:43:42,410 --> 00:43:49,450
And this is another one where I saw a stat a few months ago that ICE is not actually deporting more people per day.

686
00:43:49,750 --> 00:43:51,810
It seems to be less people per day.

687
00:43:51,810 --> 00:43:58,930
And this reminds me of sort of the children at cages on the border where the news made that an issue during one administration.

688
00:43:58,930 --> 00:44:01,910
It didn't go away, but the story went away.

689
00:44:02,230 --> 00:44:12,770
But I think about, you know, ICE going into schools and you hear these stories about masked men without papers going into anywhere.

690
00:44:13,350 --> 00:44:14,150
But I think about school.

691
00:44:14,410 --> 00:44:15,450
Grabbing up people, yeah.

692
00:44:15,790 --> 00:44:16,230
Grabbing up people.

693
00:44:16,290 --> 00:44:17,890
And I think about sort of just the parameters here.

694
00:44:17,910 --> 00:44:18,950
And I don't think that's great.

695
00:44:18,950 --> 00:44:24,970
sounds horrible like how do we know that these are real ice how do we you know so i just see sort

696
00:44:24,970 --> 00:44:29,450
of like uh again i'm not saying it's also profoundly inefficient and profoundly inefficient

697
00:44:29,450 --> 00:44:35,250
so you say is that done on purpose meaning so you get the team who's like hey we would like to close

698
00:44:35,250 --> 00:44:40,190
the border that sounds logical and rational that's what any sort of you know father's job is to secure

699
00:44:40,190 --> 00:44:44,610
the perimeter lock all the doors before we go to sleep close the windows these things make sense

700
00:44:44,610 --> 00:44:46,350
That's what a leader does.

701
00:44:46,510 --> 00:44:49,450
But, you know, we're going to do it in such an inhumane way.

702
00:44:49,470 --> 00:44:54,850
We got 20 South, 20 North Africans sitting in our living room after we locked the doors.

703
00:44:55,430 --> 00:44:59,930
So, you know, I'll read a tweet from Health Ranger.

704
00:45:00,290 --> 00:45:06,630
Infowars is now reporting that insider sources say Trump will declare the Insurrection Act next week.

705
00:45:07,130 --> 00:45:08,330
This is right on schedule.

706
00:45:08,450 --> 00:45:09,270
Trump will declare it.

707
00:45:09,290 --> 00:45:11,330
The radical left will amp up their uprising.

708
00:45:11,330 --> 00:45:14,490
ICE will be told to start shooting people even more who resist.

709
00:45:14,610 --> 00:45:28,810
This will by design result in a domestic civil war situation brewing hot across 20 U.S. cities by the summer months, at which point Trump will deploy the U.S. military to oversee the midterm elections, citing safety concerns for the public.

710
00:45:29,410 --> 00:45:31,210
This will stop the Democrats from cheating.

711
00:45:31,890 --> 00:45:35,810
And if this takes place, as I expect now, this the Dems, should I read more?

712
00:45:35,870 --> 00:45:37,570
The Dems will do horribly in the election.

713
00:45:37,570 --> 00:45:42,070
I don't I don't necessarily agree with all this, but I could see how people on either side get very.

714
00:45:42,070 --> 00:45:45,650
and maybe this is i'm not saying this i've been thinking this could happen and at any time

715
00:45:45,650 --> 00:45:52,890
every summer so uh but it you know you wonder uh the way things are being done the news that's

716
00:45:52,890 --> 00:45:57,610
being reported on that you don't even know it's true either we don't even know it's true right

717
00:45:57,610 --> 00:46:02,970
we don't know how it's being reported is true we don't know the quantity the scale the materiality

718
00:46:02,970 --> 00:46:08,250
all these questions but i could see how it's very divisive i could see how some things i'm hearing

719
00:46:08,250 --> 00:46:13,650
on the true are true would be very upsetting to me i know here you know where i live the local

720
00:46:13,650 --> 00:46:21,390
school board voted to affirm ice's rights to go into public schools here and you know but what's

721
00:46:21,390 --> 00:46:26,670
weird about that is that's already this like it's already uh legal for law enforcement to go into

722
00:46:26,670 --> 00:46:32,010
the schools so they didn't need to vote for that they need to vote but the vote was uh in response

723
00:46:32,010 --> 00:46:35,810
to one of the five board members going to an anti-ice rally.

724
00:46:36,150 --> 00:46:38,910
So this seems personal and political.

725
00:46:39,230 --> 00:46:41,450
And then the community came out en masse and said,

726
00:46:41,530 --> 00:46:43,690
well, you know, now that we're voting, we'd like to say no.

727
00:46:44,090 --> 00:46:46,430
The school board voted three to two yes.

728
00:46:46,830 --> 00:46:48,950
You know, these are affecting people's lives.

729
00:46:49,670 --> 00:46:51,890
There are different ways to go about everything.

730
00:46:52,370 --> 00:46:54,090
You know, even getting, like, let's say,

731
00:46:54,150 --> 00:46:55,750
I don't think the Maduro story is true,

732
00:46:55,750 --> 00:46:59,190
but I think the official narrative as it stands

733
00:46:59,190 --> 00:47:04,010
has to be frightening for other sovereign nations who aren't really sovereign because they don't

734
00:47:04,010 --> 00:47:08,630
really have the military might. You know, if you believe this story, like really no one's sovereign

735
00:47:08,630 --> 00:47:16,410
but us. Right. Everybody is a U.S. protector. Right. And that's what I don't like. I mean,

736
00:47:16,510 --> 00:47:22,290
it's not sustainable. That's right. The moral dilemmas, because if you have the money printer,

737
00:47:22,290 --> 00:47:26,610
then you have to solve every problem with the money. But I want to read another, you know,

738
00:47:26,610 --> 00:47:34,270
coinkydink so do you know on on september 10th when charlie kirk was assassinated the that nick

739
00:47:34,270 --> 00:47:41,350
shirley was on the show which show which um was on the charlie kirk show that same day that same

740
00:47:41,350 --> 00:47:48,230
day nick shirley and um that is a little weird isn't it on a randomly selected clip so now and

741
00:47:48,230 --> 00:47:52,510
and they happen to do nick shirley is not just some kid who started knocking on doors there's

742
00:47:52,510 --> 00:47:56,770
no question i don't believe that i think it's astro not even close oh he's he is a he's part

743
00:47:56,770 --> 00:48:01,710
of the machine they wanted us to talk about that and i don't know why and it's divisive

744
00:48:01,710 --> 00:48:06,770
or actually i don't think that one's been as divisive so what i find also interesting about

745
00:48:06,770 --> 00:48:11,470
it so he's on the show now the i watched this he's on the show i'd never heard of nick shirley

746
00:48:11,470 --> 00:48:16,650
before the the somali daycare thing but he's on the charlie kirk show on september 10th so he

747
00:48:16,650 --> 00:48:21,050
he couldn't go to Utah where he wanted to be to live stream it.

748
00:48:21,390 --> 00:48:24,070
And according to him, again, I don't know if that's real,

749
00:48:24,390 --> 00:48:26,710
if that was his real intent or desire, but that's what he said.

750
00:48:27,210 --> 00:48:32,110
And he's on the Charlie Kirk show with the leader dude of Turning Point USA.

751
00:48:32,370 --> 00:48:33,330
I'm sorry, I don't know his name.

752
00:48:33,890 --> 00:48:37,930
So the conversation was around gun violence in Chicago.

753
00:48:38,030 --> 00:48:44,830
So Nick Shirley produced video of him going into what looked like the toughest neighborhood.

754
00:48:44,830 --> 00:48:52,310
I'll use the word toughest neighborhood in Chicago, just hanging out with really tough people in Chicago with weapons brashed and flashed.

755
00:48:52,330 --> 00:48:55,750
He asked them all sorts of like interesting questions.

756
00:48:56,170 --> 00:48:58,470
And it's about guns and gun violence.

757
00:48:59,110 --> 00:49:00,610
And that, I think, is an interesting connection.

758
00:49:00,810 --> 00:49:03,610
And then and there was another connection on the next day.

759
00:49:03,750 --> 00:49:05,950
He had he I think he got sick and then he had to go somewhere.

760
00:49:06,050 --> 00:49:07,690
But so I don't think.

761
00:49:07,790 --> 00:49:13,510
Yeah. And so then someone wrote, wow, this seems super sus and really points to the whole idea that Nick Shirley is a massive psyop at best.

762
00:49:13,510 --> 00:49:15,330
or something far more nefarious

763
00:49:15,330 --> 00:49:17,750
where Charlie Kirk was absolutely living in the Truman Show.

764
00:49:17,910 --> 00:49:20,810
And that's from the Patriot Voice on Twitter.

765
00:49:20,930 --> 00:49:21,450
So I thought that was...

766
00:49:21,450 --> 00:49:22,570
I think Charlie was...

767
00:49:22,570 --> 00:49:26,030
I think that Truman Show is a really good analogy.

768
00:49:26,530 --> 00:49:28,210
Charlie Kirk might have been the only guy

769
00:49:28,210 --> 00:49:30,210
who didn't know what was going on.

770
00:49:30,470 --> 00:49:32,050
Yeah, but he comes across...

771
00:49:32,050 --> 00:49:35,050
He comes across to me as, you know, articulate,

772
00:49:35,210 --> 00:49:37,070
which doesn't mean that you're incredibly smart.

773
00:49:37,570 --> 00:49:39,250
You can be fed...

774
00:49:39,250 --> 00:49:42,790
If he's only a high school grad...

775
00:49:42,790 --> 00:49:47,430
i don't believe that because he sounded way more intelligent so that gets to the next question so i

776
00:49:47,430 --> 00:49:54,150
think for example erica kirk is fake from head to toe it's dreams yeah extraordinarily fake i

777
00:49:54,150 --> 00:49:59,270
actually think she's probably an mk ultra product from age five sort of thing i think i think she was

778
00:49:59,270 --> 00:50:03,910
one of those brainwashed yeah right and she's got all the traits as far as i'm concerned she's got

779
00:50:03,910 --> 00:50:10,390
the blank stare she's got the fraudulent personality she's got the she's got the complete lack of real

780
00:50:10,390 --> 00:50:17,490
emotion. There's so many suspect things like her doing videos for the CIA and her mother being

781
00:50:17,490 --> 00:50:25,690
in deep state and dating shows and Israel and the fact that she was... Mike Ferris used to see Charlie

782
00:50:25,690 --> 00:50:31,170
in the grocery store. He never saw him with his kids or his wife. Never. The videos I've seen of

783
00:50:31,170 --> 00:50:38,050
Charlie with his children seem really odd to me. Well, the weirdest one is where his daughter

784
00:50:38,050 --> 00:50:43,170
supposedly is in the front seat and they're driving up to a TPUSA function and she's like

785
00:50:43,170 --> 00:50:47,210
three years old. Do you have kids? Do you have kids, right? Yeah. A three-year-old kid, just barely

786
00:50:47,210 --> 00:50:50,910
lingual. And she's playing with her toys or something and then she gets distracted and she

787
00:50:50,910 --> 00:50:55,290
notices they're pulling up to a TPUSA function and she starts saying, Charlie Kirk, Charlie Kirk.

788
00:50:55,370 --> 00:50:59,750
And I'm going, that's not what you call your father. There's no pictures of Charlie Kirk's

789
00:50:59,750 --> 00:51:03,830
kids where you can see their face. I think they were just props. I agree. I think I'm not convinced

790
00:51:03,830 --> 00:51:05,050
they were even married.

791
00:51:05,530 --> 00:51:07,190
The question I have is,

792
00:51:07,390 --> 00:51:09,870
okay, so I'm going to just bet a paycheck

793
00:51:09,870 --> 00:51:13,450
that Erica was all part of some master plan.

794
00:51:13,910 --> 00:51:15,710
She probably knew he was going to get whacked.

795
00:51:15,870 --> 00:51:18,270
I'm guessing Ben Shapiro knew he was going to get whacked

796
00:51:18,270 --> 00:51:19,330
his last interview.

797
00:51:20,310 --> 00:51:21,530
Maybe he's not whacked.

798
00:51:21,650 --> 00:51:22,230
We don't know.

799
00:51:22,550 --> 00:51:23,330
I don't know why you do that.

800
00:51:23,330 --> 00:51:24,030
It didn't look real to me.

801
00:51:24,390 --> 00:51:25,270
It didn't look real to me.

802
00:51:25,270 --> 00:51:25,290
I don't know.

803
00:51:25,290 --> 00:51:26,930
It looked pretty authentic to me.

804
00:51:27,650 --> 00:51:30,090
But the no blood between him and the car,

805
00:51:30,230 --> 00:51:31,110
the way they handle him.

806
00:51:31,110 --> 00:51:34,170
If you hit the spinal cord, it stops pumping.

807
00:51:34,470 --> 00:51:36,630
All the cleanup around, I get that screams.

808
00:51:36,930 --> 00:51:39,030
But it's, yeah, I don't think that too much.

809
00:51:39,090 --> 00:51:42,750
No, it was certainly, the whole story was suspect from head to toe.

810
00:51:43,030 --> 00:51:44,250
I mean, there's things all over that.

811
00:51:44,450 --> 00:51:49,010
There's nothing, that story holds together about as well as the Las Vegas shootings.

812
00:51:49,190 --> 00:51:50,690
I mean, it really doesn't hold together at all.

813
00:51:50,690 --> 00:51:55,290
That doesn't mean real bullets didn't, or real people didn't, I'm not trying to say that.

814
00:51:55,590 --> 00:51:56,390
Same thing with Butler.

815
00:51:57,450 --> 00:52:00,070
But the way they threw him in the back of a car, you don't do that.

816
00:52:00,070 --> 00:52:04,830
You treat him right there in the spot, Mikey McCoy walking off into the distance, looking

817
00:52:04,830 --> 00:52:07,950
at what happened, talking on his phone, everything's wrong with the story.

818
00:52:07,950 --> 00:52:12,310
Erica Kirk, before the shooting, sitting there on a video with Charlie and they're taking

819
00:52:12,310 --> 00:52:15,750
questions from the internet and Charlie says, oh here's an easy one, they'd been married

820
00:52:15,750 --> 00:52:20,510
four years and he said, what year were you married and Erica Kirk couldn't remember?

821
00:52:20,510 --> 00:52:23,250
Would your wife ever forget what year you were married?

822
00:52:23,250 --> 00:52:27,690
Now as I like to say, my wife's been trying to suppress that memory but she still hasn't

823
00:52:27,690 --> 00:52:29,690
succeeded.

824
00:52:29,690 --> 00:52:31,770
Four years in, your wife knew what year you got married.

825
00:52:32,190 --> 00:52:35,650
And she sits there and she was asked, and she goes, 2021?

826
00:52:36,690 --> 00:52:39,750
And I'm going, she doesn't remember when she got married.

827
00:52:40,550 --> 00:52:41,590
So I think the whole thing.

828
00:52:41,630 --> 00:52:44,670
Now, the question is, was Charlie Kirkaprop?

829
00:52:44,910 --> 00:52:49,030
And I haven't gotten good data, but the other day I picked up something from Jimmy Dore

830
00:52:49,030 --> 00:52:59,550
where they made some reference to Charlie having a handler in a context that sounded like he was himself a created figure.

831
00:52:59,690 --> 00:53:07,690
not just a guy. He was not oblivious. One argument is they took him and they knew what to do with him

832
00:53:07,690 --> 00:53:14,270
and stuff like that. Some mysteriously wealthy guy took him under his wing. There's a lot of

833
00:53:14,270 --> 00:53:20,370
suspect things having to do with Charlie's career. But Charlie himself might have been a created

834
00:53:20,370 --> 00:53:25,830
entity. And I don't mean just created like, of course, everyone's created boy bands, you name it.

835
00:53:25,830 --> 00:53:27,830
He might have been...

836
00:53:27,830 --> 00:53:30,510
TPSA was registered in 2002.

837
00:53:30,990 --> 00:53:32,610
Charlie Kirk was one years old or something.

838
00:53:32,750 --> 00:53:36,850
I mean, it was really ridiculously long before he came on the scene.

839
00:53:37,210 --> 00:53:40,430
I just don't know, and his background is very vague.

840
00:53:40,810 --> 00:53:43,770
You don't find out his family was not at the memorial service.

841
00:53:43,910 --> 00:53:45,810
Her family was not at the memorial service.

842
00:53:46,030 --> 00:53:48,250
No one's seen any of them, right?

843
00:53:48,290 --> 00:53:49,570
They're all off radar.

844
00:53:50,170 --> 00:53:53,690
They're about as visible as John Cullen, let's put it that way.

845
00:53:53,690 --> 00:53:57,670
And so the whole thing just smells from head to toe, just from head to toe.

846
00:53:58,230 --> 00:54:02,070
And Erica Kirk, by the way, if they really thought they were going to insert Erica, they blew it.

847
00:54:02,330 --> 00:54:04,670
There's no chance she can do that job now.

848
00:54:04,930 --> 00:54:06,390
She is so damaged, right?

849
00:54:06,630 --> 00:54:18,110
She is just tainted material, and they don't have replacements, so TPUSA is going to just, it'll turn into something else, but it's not going to, they're never going to rekindle that flame.

850
00:54:19,150 --> 00:54:22,010
My hypothesis is that they didn't overplay their hand.

851
00:54:22,010 --> 00:54:24,130
and they executed this the way they wanted.

852
00:54:24,130 --> 00:54:26,870
But I think personally, she overplayed her hand in her role.

853
00:54:26,870 --> 00:54:28,990
I don't think she...

854
00:54:28,990 --> 00:54:31,830
I think she leaned into the role a little too hard,

855
00:54:31,830 --> 00:54:36,270
and the public just revolted for obvious reasons.

856
00:54:36,270 --> 00:54:39,310
Well, but her handlers did that.

857
00:54:39,310 --> 00:54:40,750
I mean, they put her there.

858
00:54:40,750 --> 00:54:43,870
Oh, I think putting her there was the plan.

859
00:54:43,870 --> 00:54:46,310
I think she was supposed to usurp and take all the power,

860
00:54:46,310 --> 00:54:48,050
and this was all the plan.

861
00:54:48,050 --> 00:54:49,650
And I think the way she carried her...

862
00:54:49,650 --> 00:54:51,530
She just wasn't a good actor.

863
00:54:51,530 --> 00:54:53,370
I don't think she was a good enough actor for the role,

864
00:54:53,950 --> 00:54:58,090
and she blew it by smiling too much or celebrating too much

865
00:54:58,090 --> 00:54:59,510
or doing that kind of thing.

866
00:54:59,530 --> 00:55:02,230
Not being able to cry, not being able to show emotion,

867
00:55:02,470 --> 00:55:03,270
not being able to...

868
00:55:03,270 --> 00:55:06,770
The right emotion for the context of the role at that time.

869
00:55:06,870 --> 00:55:08,570
And I think she was so excited to leap forward

870
00:55:08,570 --> 00:55:13,270
into the next part of the role of being the leader and the CEO and all of it.

871
00:55:13,270 --> 00:55:15,530
I think she's just a terribly shitty actress

872
00:55:15,530 --> 00:55:19,010
who was asked to do an Academy Award quality acting job.

873
00:55:19,430 --> 00:55:20,890
Well, then Charlie Kirk can't be real,

874
00:55:20,890 --> 00:55:25,090
because, I mean, he couldn't have been honeypotted by, I mean, that bad of an actress.

875
00:55:25,470 --> 00:55:29,610
I mean, you'd have to think that he, like, some of the stuff that's coming up now,

876
00:55:29,710 --> 00:55:32,990
that was he not aware of any of her life before they met?

877
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:38,200
because that's that's the part i don't know they don't really uh jive on paper when they supposedly

878
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:45,080
met in israel they supposedly met in israel sure but usually choir church boys look for girls who

879
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:49,960
are not on dating shows we're hanging out in church all day right right and you know usually

880
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:56,520
she got kicked out of romania for trafficking children that wasn't very good for her image

881
00:55:56,520 --> 00:56:01,400
right that sort of thing all of this i mean wouldn't really go well if he did any sort of

882
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:05,240
like real digging so it's hard to imagine but here's what i've been watching i've been waiting

883
00:56:05,240 --> 00:56:11,000
for candace owen to say something that tells me charlie was fake well do you think can't wait

884
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:16,920
because i i don't i think she's another sort of chaos agent well she might be but she sure as hell

885
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:21,640
is calling out the guys who shot charlie or distracting us by calling out people who didn't

886
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:26,360
you know give you know we don't know how these things work well she's been battling israel pretty

887
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,240
hard. So if Israel whacked Charlie,

888
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:29,720
then she is calling out

889
00:56:29,720 --> 00:56:32,220
that team. We can't be certain that Israel whacked

890
00:56:32,220 --> 00:56:33,640
Charlie. But who did?

891
00:56:34,620 --> 00:56:35,980
They're the number one candidate.

892
00:56:36,140 --> 00:56:38,100
It's like they find the wife in the

893
00:56:38,100 --> 00:56:39,460
garage in a puddle of blood.

894
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,400
I'll entertain the question.

895
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:43,920
And I'm not saying it's

896
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,280
the wrong answer, but we don't

897
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:48,080
know. And there's a non-zero chance that there's

898
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:50,220
some agency out there who could be

899
00:56:50,220 --> 00:56:51,360
even cohorts with Israel.

900
00:56:52,140 --> 00:56:54,160
Or wants to frame

901
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:55,940
Israel. Or wants to frame Israel. That's my

902
00:56:55,940 --> 00:56:59,500
greater point that we just don't know that's like as we unravel the onion that's right that's right

903
00:56:59,500 --> 00:57:04,180
what i found interesting it's just it's the propensity of these events now that the moment

904
00:57:04,180 --> 00:57:09,360
i pick up my phone it's like i have nothing to do with charlie kirk and he was the first thing i saw

905
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:13,000
on my phone when i picked up that phone like within seconds of it actually happening in real

906
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:18,420
time i checked my phone a lot my my timeline but based on what my interests and all everything i'm

907
00:57:18,420 --> 00:57:23,600
involved in my timeline that should have been maybe 10th thing i saw that day or like it shouldn't

908
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:25,920
And I saw the same thing with Butler.

909
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:28,380
And it happened to people around me.

910
00:57:28,460 --> 00:57:31,400
Like, we all pick up our phone within moments, and we see the first thing.

911
00:57:31,500 --> 00:57:34,540
So that means that they're using these algorithms.

912
00:57:34,540 --> 00:57:36,900
So do you think he did not get shot in the ear?

913
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,240
I can't remember where you stand on Butler.

914
00:57:39,300 --> 00:57:41,100
You don't think he actually got shot in the ear?

915
00:57:41,180 --> 00:57:42,060
You think that was fake?

916
00:57:42,180 --> 00:57:45,500
I think somehow these moments, and I look back at 9-11,

917
00:57:45,500 --> 00:57:51,120
I think a lot about 9-11 and just how limited views there were of the towers

918
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,340
and how it just seemed very controlled in retrospect what got out.

919
00:57:54,340 --> 00:57:57,140
Well, 9-11, though, the towers did come down.

920
00:57:57,500 --> 00:57:58,800
Something did hit the Pentagon.

921
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,440
I agree, but we don't know if it was a direct energy weapon.

922
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:02,900
We don't know if it was two planes.

923
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:03,740
We don't know if it was a bomb.

924
00:58:03,740 --> 00:58:06,920
A lot of guys don't know the Judy Wood plot, right?

925
00:58:07,020 --> 00:58:10,980
The Judy Wood plot is—even the truthers hate the Judy Wood plot.

926
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:14,800
There's all sorts of plausible plots that are nothing like—

927
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:20,220
But the question is, do you think someone shot Trump in the ear or not is the question.

928
00:58:20,220 --> 00:58:21,180
I don't.

929
00:58:21,180 --> 00:58:25,080
Okay, so you think Trump reached up and cut his own ear?

930
00:58:25,220 --> 00:58:26,340
Do you think he cut his own ear?

931
00:58:26,860 --> 00:58:30,580
I think if a bullet grazed his head, he'd probably be on the ground crying like a little bitch.

932
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:31,600
I think he'd be scrambling.

933
00:58:31,780 --> 00:58:33,580
His team wouldn't let him up.

934
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:40,160
I don't think the odds of that being the only rally that got covered when it seemed like the news was trying not to cover him.

935
00:58:40,540 --> 00:58:41,700
It's like they play us.

936
00:58:41,820 --> 00:58:42,700
They're like, we're not going to cover him.

937
00:58:42,700 --> 00:58:43,560
Oh, they were all there.

938
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:45,020
They were all there.

939
00:58:45,020 --> 00:58:47,540
They knew something was coming.

940
00:58:47,700 --> 00:58:48,600
They knew something was coming.

941
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:51,360
9-11 photographer who captured the moment of Bush.

942
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:52,080
I know.

943
00:58:52,300 --> 00:58:52,520
Right?

944
00:58:52,940 --> 00:58:53,200
Okay.

945
00:58:53,380 --> 00:58:55,900
I mean, it's just, it's like a little high school play.

946
00:58:56,500 --> 00:58:57,340
It's in Butler.

947
00:58:57,580 --> 00:58:59,840
They get the lady to say something, the head of the FBI to be like,

948
00:58:59,920 --> 00:59:03,240
we didn't think that was a slope we could be on.

949
00:59:03,380 --> 00:59:04,320
It's regarded.

950
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,100
Did you see the two guys?

951
00:59:06,100 --> 00:59:11,200
Did you see the slow-mo of the two guys sitting behind Trump and Butler?

952
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:13,000
Yeah, like three minutes.

953
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,520
They did this.

954
00:59:14,820 --> 00:59:15,600
Yeah, none of it.

955
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:21,020
throats now i don't know if any of the videos are real or whatever but my point is with 9-11 going

956
00:59:21,020 --> 00:59:25,940
back to is i 9-11 there was only three real networks right all they have to do is put in

957
00:59:25,940 --> 00:59:30,820
three seconds of fake footage and that doesn't mean that everything that happens and that there's

958
00:59:30,820 --> 00:59:36,140
not bombs in the building or planes but like they can fool us is what i'm trying to say what we see

959
00:59:36,140 --> 00:59:42,740
is not real they want us to see it i'd be shocked if the planes hitting the pentagon weren't playing

960
00:59:42,740 --> 00:59:49,280
I would actually be shocked if the towers were not planes.

961
00:59:49,500 --> 00:59:53,260
I would be shocked if whatever hit the Pentagon was a plane.

962
00:59:53,540 --> 00:59:56,300
I think the Pentagon was not a plane.

963
00:59:56,820 --> 00:59:58,740
I think the towers were planes.

964
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:01,840
I don't think the story about United 93 is real.

965
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:02,760
Which one?

966
01:00:02,860 --> 01:00:04,060
The guys rushing the cabin.

967
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:05,000
Oh, yeah.

968
01:00:05,100 --> 01:00:06,440
No, that's totally fake, I think.

969
01:00:06,780 --> 01:00:08,540
For one thing, how would you know?

970
01:00:08,540 --> 01:00:13,260
I still can't drive down the road and keep my signal on my cell phone.

971
01:00:13,340 --> 01:00:15,560
I have to pull over to talk on my cell phone.

972
01:00:15,900 --> 01:00:16,800
I lose signal.

973
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:25,100
So these guys flying at 350 miles at 540 knots making phone calls to their loved ones is a total sack of crap.

974
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:28,500
In 2001, they're using flip-

975
01:00:28,500 --> 01:00:29,820
People have been believing this.

976
01:00:29,940 --> 01:00:31,220
It's like the moon landing call.

977
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:32,180
Yeah, I know.

978
01:00:32,820 --> 01:00:36,900
Which, if you go back to the original footage, not only do they hand them the landline,

979
01:00:36,900 --> 01:00:38,320
and he's like, oh, cool, this is the moon.

980
01:00:38,540 --> 01:00:42,240
The very next thing is a commercial for AT&T, my bell.

981
01:00:45,660 --> 01:00:48,300
We're getting played so hard.

982
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:50,640
And we're all going along.

983
01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:53,080
And it's like we feel like, you know, I don't know.

984
01:00:53,740 --> 01:00:56,900
So I have a friend who doesn't believe in conspiracy theories at all.

985
01:00:56,960 --> 01:00:59,020
He's kind of like an amateur Michael Shermer.

986
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:03,280
And I finally said to him, I said, give me a conspiracy theory you believe.

987
01:01:03,380 --> 01:01:04,100
Just give me one.

988
01:01:04,180 --> 01:01:05,460
And he couldn't name one.

989
01:01:05,460 --> 01:01:10,060
And I said, I said, men and women of wealth and power conspire every waking hour.

990
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,900
Every waking hour, these guys are scheming.

991
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:17,580
So your assumption that there's no conspiracy theories is absurd.

992
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:22,160
Let me also point out to the listener something very important, scientifically important.

993
01:01:22,340 --> 01:01:26,880
Occam's razor does not say the simplest explanation is the most likely.

994
01:01:27,180 --> 01:01:30,440
What I can tell you is if it said that, it would be nonsense.

995
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:34,760
The most simplest explanation is never the right one.

996
01:01:35,260 --> 01:01:36,740
It is never the right one.

997
01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:40,660
You look into anything, it gets more complicated just by looking at the details.

998
01:01:41,020 --> 01:01:45,680
Occam's razor said you have to go with the simplest explanation consistent with the data.

999
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,180
What it also says is get more fucking data.

1000
01:01:48,180 --> 01:01:55,280
And so Occam's razor says you can't make up a complex story to explain something for which the data only gives you a simple story.

1001
01:01:55,500 --> 01:02:00,500
So if all you have is video of the planes hitting the towers, you can't make up a complicated story.

1002
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:03,160
But if you start putting together some of the other information,

1003
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:05,520
all of a sudden you go, oh, wait a minute, those towers fell at free-false speed.

1004
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,840
Now the story gets more, now your model can get more elaborate.

1005
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,140
Occam's razor doesn't say the simplest explanation is the correct one.

1006
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:14,880
That is not ever what Occam's razor said.

1007
01:02:15,100 --> 01:02:18,020
He said you've got to go with the simplest that explains the data.

1008
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:19,200
It doesn't mean it's right.

1009
01:02:19,420 --> 01:02:21,980
It just says you can't start adding shit for no reason.

1010
01:02:22,220 --> 01:02:24,720
But we've got plenty of reason to add shit, right?

1011
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:25,460
That's the problem.

1012
01:02:25,460 --> 01:02:28,040
We've got plenty of data to show those stories are all whacked out.

1013
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:30,840
I don't think there's a narrative out.

1014
01:02:31,060 --> 01:02:35,520
I think at this point, if you trust history, you're out of your mind.

1015
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:37,700
Here's a statement I like to make.

1016
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:42,880
Name me a country who hasn't lied to optimize their narrative.

1017
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:44,140
You can't name one.

1018
01:02:44,260 --> 01:02:47,560
Every country will optimize their narrative, period.

1019
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:54,660
So when it comes time to explain something, when it comes time to explain, you know, attack on Pearl Harbor, whatever,

1020
01:02:54,660 --> 01:03:01,620
we are going to write a story that is absolutely in our best interest. Daniel Ellsberg used to talk

1021
01:03:01,620 --> 01:03:05,440
about in his book Secrets, he talked about how they were in the basement. They had top security

1022
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:09,620
clearance. And some guy would run down the basement and say, one of our planes got shot down over

1023
01:03:09,620 --> 01:03:15,920
Uzbekistan. You know, we need five reasons why it was there and what the hell happened.

1024
01:03:16,180 --> 01:03:20,520
We need them in 15 minutes. So these guys would crunch out these news stories. And then they'd

1025
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:23,840
turn on the news that night and see which one they went with. They would just make them up.

1026
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:29,940
And so, for example, there's no historical event that you can say that the official narrative

1027
01:03:29,940 --> 01:03:34,840
hasn't been optimized. So when you look at, say, Israel getting attacked on October 7th,

1028
01:03:34,900 --> 01:03:40,760
I can make a compelling case that there was a stand-down order using exclusively Israeli sources,

1029
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:47,140
Times of Israel, things like that. It was easy. By the way, anyone who thinks that 800 Hamas could

1030
01:03:47,140 --> 01:03:51,980
run around Israel for eight hours and not get their asses kicked senseless is out of their mind.

1031
01:03:52,300 --> 01:03:56,700
One thing I have great faith is the Israelis can protect themselves. They don't blow shit like this.

1032
01:03:57,120 --> 01:04:02,160
They're good. And so if you'd asked me ahead of time, okay, they're going to drop 800 Hamas into

1033
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:06,120
Israel, how long would they survive? I would have said, well, the guys coming in by paraglider

1034
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:10,180
wouldn't be alive when they got to the ground. And within 10 minutes, they'd be mopped up.

1035
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:15,300
Israel knows how to not let shit like that happen. Then all the articles talked about all the ways

1036
01:04:15,300 --> 01:04:16,140
that Israel boned it.

1037
01:04:16,420 --> 01:04:17,160
They didn't bone it.

1038
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:19,180
The guy who moved the concert

1039
01:04:19,180 --> 01:04:20,220
close to the border

1040
01:04:20,220 --> 01:04:20,860
was the same guy

1041
01:04:20,860 --> 01:04:21,600
who pulled the troops

1042
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:22,440
away from the border.

1043
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:23,280
Same general.

1044
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:24,660
And so, you know,

1045
01:04:24,760 --> 01:04:26,020
and so we do it too.

1046
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:27,200
Everyone does this.

1047
01:04:27,460 --> 01:04:27,800
9-11.

1048
01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:28,720
9-11.

1049
01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:30,280
We have our story, yeah.

1050
01:04:30,820 --> 01:04:32,000
The Gulf of Tonkin.

1051
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:33,180
If you haven't read

1052
01:04:33,180 --> 01:04:34,200
about the USS Liberty,

1053
01:04:34,340 --> 01:04:34,880
holy shit,

1054
01:04:34,960 --> 01:04:36,500
what an awful story that is.

1055
01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:37,900
Remember the Maine,

1056
01:04:38,060 --> 01:04:39,860
Lusitania, Pearl Harbor.

1057
01:04:39,860 --> 01:04:41,220
They all have

1058
01:04:41,220 --> 01:04:43,000
their screwed up components.

1059
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:43,520
Yep.

1060
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:44,840
FDR neutered them.

1061
01:04:45,380 --> 01:04:45,600
Right.

1062
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:48,220
Just everything has its story.

1063
01:04:48,620 --> 01:04:51,760
And they create the narrative that will best suit their needs.

1064
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:55,680
And so if you think governments aren't lying to get the best possible narrative,

1065
01:04:56,200 --> 01:05:00,820
one thing I do not believe is I do not believe Hamas ran around Israel for eight hours.

1066
01:05:01,080 --> 01:05:02,980
I don't think they'd run around there for eight minutes.

1067
01:05:03,260 --> 01:05:06,600
And that is my faith in the Israelis to kick the shit out of them.

1068
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:07,240
They're tough.

1069
01:05:07,460 --> 01:05:08,040
So why?

1070
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:11,260
You go, well, because they wanted to take the Gaza Strip.

1071
01:05:11,580 --> 01:05:12,280
This is not hard.

1072
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:14,000
why did we let 9-11 happen?

1073
01:05:14,180 --> 01:05:16,940
Because we wanted to move our military into the Middle East.

1074
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:18,640
You say, well, how could they do something?

1075
01:05:18,800 --> 01:05:20,440
How could you let 3,000 people die?

1076
01:05:20,500 --> 01:05:23,920
And I go, these are the guys who dropped thousands to their death

1077
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:25,680
on Omaha Beach and in Normandy.

1078
01:05:26,020 --> 01:05:29,280
And we lost millions of people over the years in wars.

1079
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:31,740
If they believe we got to get to the Middle East,

1080
01:05:31,980 --> 01:05:34,840
and someone says, well, we're going to lose thousands of people,

1081
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:37,320
if they can't say, fuck it, we got to do it,

1082
01:05:37,780 --> 01:05:39,840
they can't have that job.

1083
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:44,820
Now, I disagree with letting people die in the towers to get to the Middle East.

1084
01:05:44,940 --> 01:05:46,780
I just can't agree with it.

1085
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:51,520
But if that's your conclusion, that will get us to the Middle East where we have to be.

1086
01:05:51,820 --> 01:05:54,280
If you can't make that call, you need another job.

1087
01:05:54,580 --> 01:05:55,540
I mean, it radicalized me.

1088
01:05:55,700 --> 01:05:57,540
I was in New York around 9-11.

1089
01:05:57,860 --> 01:06:01,280
I don't believe the official story, but I know the buildings came down.

1090
01:06:01,500 --> 01:06:03,880
I know people who lost their lives.

1091
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:05,240
It impacted all of us.

1092
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:07,000
I was trapped in the city that day.

1093
01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:09,720
Yeah, and Howard Lutnick didn't go to work that day.

1094
01:06:09,840 --> 01:06:16,880
that's true and you know you look into the policies uh behind the towers and there's just a lot of

1095
01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:24,480
um the dancing israelis all of it um it's all the the trillion dollars being announced by rumsfield

1096
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:30,320
that was lost no footage of the pentagon getting hit no footage of the pentagon getting hit um

1097
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:38,160
shanksville no debris i remember you crash a plane there's body parts everywhere there's

1098
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:39,100
There's luggage everywhere.

1099
01:06:39,300 --> 01:06:42,040
There's underwear in the trees, body parts in the trees.

1100
01:06:42,180 --> 01:06:44,580
It is an awful, awful mess.

1101
01:06:44,980 --> 01:06:46,500
And it was just a hole in the ground.

1102
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:49,100
It's like they shot a missile and just blew a hole in the ground.

1103
01:06:49,420 --> 01:06:51,960
And there's a story about the ID they found on the street.

1104
01:06:52,220 --> 01:06:52,420
I mean.

1105
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:55,940
Well, that was obviously just a make-up of bullshit story.

1106
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,580
Let's say they were tracking them and then they blew it and they pulled out 9-11.

1107
01:06:59,720 --> 01:07:01,300
You'd make that story up fast.

1108
01:07:01,300 --> 01:07:07,140
I mean, the air was black because of the disintegration of everything that went in the air.

1109
01:07:07,140 --> 01:07:09,740
Well, that gets to the Judy Wood story.

1110
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:14,060
That gets to the Judy Wood story about DEWs.

1111
01:07:14,060 --> 01:07:14,840
Well, I was down there.

1112
01:07:14,900 --> 01:07:15,660
You'd be walking.

1113
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:23,480
I had actually special permission to go below 14th Street to help Bank of New York get overcharged by their auditor.

1114
01:07:24,060 --> 01:07:27,660
But, you know, we've got to help Bank of New York.

1115
01:07:27,740 --> 01:07:29,840
We're going to send people down there 24-7.

1116
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:31,620
They have multiple locations.

1117
01:07:32,020 --> 01:07:34,200
We're going to go down to Wall Street, one wall.

1118
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:37,620
and there were just, you'd go into the seventh floor

1119
01:07:37,620 --> 01:07:40,620
and floor to ceiling just stacks of books.

1120
01:07:41,180 --> 01:07:43,940
And this side is all Bank of New York.

1121
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:45,960
That side is the custodian.

1122
01:07:46,540 --> 01:07:48,760
And you need to find every trade and match them.

1123
01:07:48,940 --> 01:07:49,500
And we don't care.

1124
01:07:49,580 --> 01:07:52,260
Just try to reconcile and match whatever you can by hand

1125
01:07:52,260 --> 01:07:55,500
and just bring as many bodies down here as possible.

1126
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:57,260
And there'd be even conversations

1127
01:07:57,260 --> 01:07:58,120
with Bank of New York people

1128
01:07:58,120 --> 01:07:59,580
that we don't need that many people.

1129
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:01,000
Well, you've already paid for it.

1130
01:08:01,020 --> 01:08:02,180
So it's not that altruistic,

1131
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:03,500
but you'd be down there

1132
01:08:03,500 --> 01:08:07,700
And in five minutes of just being outside, like you'd be covered in black dust.

1133
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:14,200
But what's also interesting is they found nothing recognizable in the rubber.

1134
01:08:14,620 --> 01:08:15,420
That's my point.

1135
01:08:15,620 --> 01:08:16,380
I mean, it was just.

1136
01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:20,660
They didn't find filing cabinets, by the way.

1137
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:23,500
I don't care how many tons fall on a filing cabinet.

1138
01:08:23,580 --> 01:08:25,460
You'll still fall in the filing cabinet.

1139
01:08:25,900 --> 01:08:27,540
That thing's not going to vaporize.

1140
01:08:27,700 --> 01:08:27,800
Right.

1141
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:28,500
And I would have.

1142
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:31,340
Yeah, I agree that the pile wasn't as high as you would think.

1143
01:08:31,340 --> 01:08:33,480
And I knew firemen who were down there.

1144
01:08:34,280 --> 01:08:37,780
Well, I was talking to a guy at a Stansbury conference I spoke at,

1145
01:08:37,980 --> 01:08:42,280
and he was there, and he had cancer from head to toe because he worked there.

1146
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,320
He was a first responder, and he was riddled with cancer.

1147
01:08:45,500 --> 01:08:46,140
Heaven only knows.

1148
01:08:46,220 --> 01:08:48,440
That could just be the dust, but heaven only knows.

1149
01:08:48,440 --> 01:08:51,620
My wife sent me one of those, because I don't know if the,

1150
01:08:52,020 --> 01:08:54,780
like it was like a link, like if you were down there, you should apply.

1151
01:08:55,220 --> 01:08:59,300
Because I mean, technically I was down there, but not for long.

1152
01:09:00,020 --> 01:09:01,360
Well, you're still with us, so.

1153
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:04,540
And I think you're past the risk point.

1154
01:09:04,900 --> 01:09:06,380
Yeah, I was young and healthy.

1155
01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:07,500
I'm still young and healthy.

1156
01:09:07,720 --> 01:09:09,200
But so that was real.

1157
01:09:09,440 --> 01:09:13,840
But, you know, it made me very angry about, in the same way, like, you know, your country's out.

1158
01:09:13,840 --> 01:09:17,660
How long did it take you to figure out that there's something wrong with the story?

1159
01:09:18,060 --> 01:09:19,500
When did that happen?

1160
01:09:20,060 --> 01:09:34,370
Well I started digging into Osama bin Laden right away in Al When did I Oh man that a really good question Well it must have been Building 7 right It must have been one of those days where someone sent you a video of Building 7 and you go that just not right

1161
01:09:34,810 --> 01:09:35,630
That was me.

1162
01:09:35,830 --> 01:09:40,590
I had a physicist send me Building 7 and I watch it and I go, oh boy, that's a demo.

1163
01:09:40,970 --> 01:09:44,650
Yes, I don't know if that was in like 2005 or 2006.

1164
01:09:44,750 --> 01:09:45,770
I have no idea.

1165
01:09:46,030 --> 01:09:48,110
It probably took you a little while, didn't it?

1166
01:09:48,230 --> 01:09:48,930
It probably took you a little while.

1167
01:09:48,930 --> 01:09:49,650
I would think so.

1168
01:09:49,650 --> 01:09:50,710
I think I was in shock.

1169
01:09:50,710 --> 01:09:53,890
I mean, honestly, I didn't understand how to interpret it.

1170
01:09:54,050 --> 01:09:58,410
I didn't think about things like the way I'm thinking about the Charlie Kirk thing right away or the Butler thing.

1171
01:09:58,890 --> 01:09:58,970
Right.

1172
01:09:59,410 --> 01:10:04,430
But I was already like really into rabbit holes like Kennedy and Kennedy Jr.

1173
01:10:05,070 --> 01:10:08,730
So I was sort of predisposed to not believing the official story.

1174
01:10:09,570 --> 01:10:10,130
Oh, OK.

1175
01:10:10,350 --> 01:10:17,390
When you start looking at Osama bin Laden and on one hand, if you believe the official story, I'd be like, you know, this is really inspiring.

1176
01:10:17,390 --> 01:10:20,090
I mean, not what he did, but like that.

1177
01:10:20,330 --> 01:10:21,610
You could live in a cave.

1178
01:10:21,770 --> 01:10:22,650
And pull this off.

1179
01:10:22,670 --> 01:10:23,670
And pull this off.

1180
01:10:24,070 --> 01:10:24,210
What?

1181
01:10:24,370 --> 01:10:29,550
You know, and I'm like, and then the more you think about it, they're like, no, that's just not possible.

1182
01:10:29,890 --> 01:10:32,810
Well, this is like the Somali daycare centers where you're going.

1183
01:10:32,990 --> 01:10:33,130
Yeah.

1184
01:10:33,130 --> 01:10:37,730
If you and I went over to Germany and they said scam the German government, we wouldn't know where to start.

1185
01:10:38,150 --> 01:10:38,370
Yeah.

1186
01:10:38,890 --> 01:10:39,110
Yes.

1187
01:10:39,150 --> 01:10:42,130
Some Somali guys are figuring out how to scam billions.

1188
01:10:42,370 --> 01:10:43,490
No, they're just front men.

1189
01:10:43,750 --> 01:10:43,990
Right.

1190
01:10:44,030 --> 01:10:44,690
And take the chance.

1191
01:10:44,690 --> 01:10:46,230
They're getting paid 15 bucks an hour.

1192
01:10:46,230 --> 01:10:48,850
They're going to pay $15 an hour for being there.

1193
01:10:49,290 --> 01:10:53,070
I think also analyzing Bush's response and the delay.

1194
01:10:53,830 --> 01:11:00,730
Well, the other thing was, I read Secretary of the Treasury O'Neill's book as soon as he left the Bush administration

1195
01:11:00,730 --> 01:11:05,170
and then wrote a book and said, I've got to find out what the hell is going on inside the White House.

1196
01:11:05,230 --> 01:11:08,150
So I read O'Neill's book, which is the first book coming out of the administration.

1197
01:11:08,730 --> 01:11:13,610
He said the first cabinet meeting, they're talking about getting into a war with Iraq.

1198
01:11:13,710 --> 01:11:13,910
Yes.

1199
01:11:13,910 --> 01:11:14,910
The first cabinet meeting.

1200
01:11:14,910 --> 01:11:19,150
so they were looking to pick a fight with the rock period i was walking through rockefeller center

1201
01:11:19,150 --> 01:11:25,710
when the very first news flash so i'm you know rockefeller center's nbc this is like october

1202
01:11:25,710 --> 01:11:33,630
something i think in 2001 maybe 2002 the anthrax and across the screen it's like live from rockefeller

1203
01:11:33,630 --> 01:11:39,150
center anthrac on the seventh floor and my co-worker she's like are we you know should we

1204
01:11:39,150 --> 01:11:43,870
be worried and i was like well it's too late if we're you know if we're in a bad situation here

1205
01:11:43,870 --> 01:11:48,110
and so to your point though like history most of it's fake but we're still living through history

1206
01:11:48,110 --> 01:11:53,150
though but it's but it's always fake and one of the problems we have now is my point we don't even

1207
01:11:53,150 --> 01:12:00,030
have hard copy now so you can go back and change the digital copy what do you think of ai uh i think

1208
01:12:00,030 --> 01:12:05,550
we're gonna wish we hadn't invented it and do you think uh and what does that mean i mean i i i think

1209
01:12:05,550 --> 01:12:11,550
it'll be used for surveillance and uh people won't think for themselves but i think that's the worst

1210
01:12:11,550 --> 01:12:17,570
part you think that's the worst of it well no i mean i think it'll be authoritarian yeah i think

1211
01:12:17,570 --> 01:12:23,350
it'll be very orwellian um one of the things that troubles me is is that we're going to raise an

1212
01:12:23,350 --> 01:12:26,910
entire generation who doesn't know how to write doesn't know how to solve problems because they're

1213
01:12:26,910 --> 01:12:31,710
just going to put it into ai now it could be like when i was a freshman and calculators were just

1214
01:12:31,710 --> 01:12:36,170
hitting the street they were like 300 bucks a piece in freshman chem they wouldn't let us use

1215
01:12:36,170 --> 01:12:40,310
a calculator because they were too expensive so only rich kids had them and stuff like that

1216
01:12:40,310 --> 01:12:45,110
But we thought we'd all go brain dead and somehow we survived Calculator.

1217
01:12:45,170 --> 01:12:49,730
But the problem now is I get emails from students that are clearly written by AI.

1218
01:12:50,570 --> 01:12:55,190
I worry that, you know, AI is writing software to run the world.

1219
01:12:55,610 --> 01:13:00,110
And I worry that we're going to reach a point where there's no human who knows how to intervene.

1220
01:13:00,530 --> 01:13:07,350
See, I think that I don't think any of that is possible with what they're doing in the sense that

1221
01:13:07,350 --> 01:13:10,590
I think they're in control here and they're 40, 50 years ahead of us.

1222
01:13:10,910 --> 01:13:14,430
So like I think about it, like the way I think about the Internet is DARPA created the Internet.

1223
01:13:15,490 --> 01:13:17,030
Way long ago.

1224
01:13:17,350 --> 01:13:18,030
Way long ago.

1225
01:13:18,250 --> 01:13:25,170
And so they're not like we'll wait till we have the routers, but it's more like we'll seed it and then we'll start Oracle and we'll build routers.

1226
01:13:25,170 --> 01:13:30,110
And we will get the public to invest in the public company that will scale the routers that we know we're going to need.

1227
01:13:30,170 --> 01:13:31,610
We know how this is going to go.

1228
01:13:32,010 --> 01:13:32,330
It's not.

1229
01:13:32,330 --> 01:13:37,550
No, when I say we won't have control over it, what I mean is...

1230
01:13:37,550 --> 01:13:40,070
Do you think there's a possibility we could lose control over AI?

1231
01:13:40,190 --> 01:13:44,550
I don't mean in the sense of our everyday lives.

1232
01:13:44,630 --> 01:13:48,290
So you walk in the grocery store and your credit card either works or does,

1233
01:13:48,370 --> 01:13:49,790
and everything's a binary decision.

1234
01:13:50,110 --> 01:13:53,110
I think we're going to increasingly run into situations

1235
01:13:53,110 --> 01:13:55,890
where you can never get a human to help you.

1236
01:13:56,190 --> 01:14:00,410
And a human is often needed to say, let me solve this problem for you.

1237
01:14:00,470 --> 01:14:01,770
Let me push the bullshit aside.

1238
01:14:01,770 --> 01:14:03,890
I see the problem you're having.

1239
01:14:03,970 --> 01:14:05,110
Let me fix this for you.

1240
01:14:05,270 --> 01:14:06,670
I think that will disappear.

1241
01:14:07,170 --> 01:14:09,590
So I order takeout from this Thai restaurant.

1242
01:14:09,710 --> 01:14:11,990
It seems like it really works, but then it fucks up.

1243
01:14:12,210 --> 01:14:13,830
And I don't know how to undo the fuck up.

1244
01:14:14,090 --> 01:14:23,830
So if everything is AI, there will be no way for humans to intervene to help you with a problem that isn't formulaic.

1245
01:14:24,630 --> 01:14:27,430
But I think that's not the worst of it.

1246
01:14:27,650 --> 01:14:29,990
It might not be the worst of it, but it really bothers me.

1247
01:14:29,990 --> 01:14:30,990
But I'm really curious.

1248
01:14:30,990 --> 01:14:36,490
Do you think that this is something that they're in a lab with today and they're trying to

1249
01:14:36,490 --> 01:14:40,110
figure out what's going to be next and they don't know?

1250
01:14:40,670 --> 01:14:42,950
Or is it like they've gamed out and played out?

1251
01:14:42,950 --> 01:14:43,570
They're way ahead of us.

1252
01:14:43,930 --> 01:14:45,530
I agree they're way ahead of us.

1253
01:14:45,790 --> 01:14:45,970
Yeah.

1254
01:14:46,090 --> 01:14:49,650
And I think any sort of experimentation is sort of what they let us know.

1255
01:14:49,750 --> 01:14:54,870
And I don't think it's real experimentation in the background in terms of maybe they have

1256
01:14:54,870 --> 01:14:56,310
to scale it or different things.

1257
01:14:56,370 --> 01:14:58,210
But we're also going to be brain dead.

1258
01:14:58,210 --> 01:15:04,390
You know, when I write scientific papers, the project's not done until I write the paper, right?

1259
01:15:04,890 --> 01:15:08,010
But writing is thinking, right?

1260
01:15:08,250 --> 01:15:10,650
And so you are really going to be a putty head.

1261
01:15:10,850 --> 01:15:15,390
You know, we've raised a generation who've been staring at their iPhones too long already.

1262
01:15:15,690 --> 01:15:18,050
And now what's going to happen is they're going to get to Cornell,

1263
01:15:18,650 --> 01:15:23,190
and they're not going to learn to write because they can just AI everything.

1264
01:15:23,630 --> 01:15:27,490
They're not going to be able to learn how to do the math or whatever

1265
01:15:27,490 --> 01:15:30,070
because they can just put it into a computer and do the math.

1266
01:15:30,130 --> 01:15:32,090
You say, okay, you're just an old man.

1267
01:15:32,170 --> 01:15:34,150
You don't understand that the world moves forward.

1268
01:15:34,550 --> 01:15:38,750
But I go, but you still need an intellectual operating system to think.

1269
01:15:39,090 --> 01:15:43,870
And the great ideas, maybe AI is going to be the source of the great ideas,

1270
01:15:43,870 --> 01:15:48,510
but the great inspiration seems to me they're going to be some guy thinking outside the box.

1271
01:15:48,790 --> 01:15:50,910
If he doesn't have an operating system to work with,

1272
01:15:51,110 --> 01:15:54,510
imagine Shakespeare if he had to use Google to look up vocabulary.

1273
01:15:54,870 --> 01:15:55,970
But I think this is a feature.

1274
01:15:55,970 --> 01:15:58,070
I think they want a world where only...

1275
01:15:58,070 --> 01:16:00,190
Well, that may be, but that's authoritarianism.

1276
01:16:00,450 --> 01:16:00,930
Yeah, yeah.

1277
01:16:00,950 --> 01:16:02,530
I think that's what they want.

1278
01:16:02,890 --> 01:16:04,710
And I think this is all in line with that.

1279
01:16:04,810 --> 01:16:07,770
And I think that they're very comfortable with the way things are progressing.

1280
01:16:07,770 --> 01:16:12,170
And I don't think they have true fear of it getting out of their control, is my guess and my hunch.

1281
01:16:12,370 --> 01:16:13,870
Well, I think they're also fools.

1282
01:16:14,350 --> 01:16:16,830
Let's take a related fool.

1283
01:16:16,850 --> 01:16:18,510
Because I don't think they want anything out of their control.

1284
01:16:19,090 --> 01:16:20,970
Releasing organisms into the wild.

1285
01:16:21,050 --> 01:16:22,490
They've created a dire wolf.

1286
01:16:22,490 --> 01:16:25,450
A dire wolf is a wolf that went extinct about 12,000 years ago.

1287
01:16:25,450 --> 01:16:29,290
It's 20% bigger. It's more of an apex predator.

1288
01:16:30,010 --> 01:16:33,850
And they've taken wolves, and they've done a mapping of the wolf and the dire wolf,

1289
01:16:33,930 --> 01:16:37,270
and they basically have reinserted the dire wolf genes into wolves.

1290
01:16:37,450 --> 01:16:39,550
So now they have dire wolves in an enclosure.

1291
01:16:40,050 --> 01:16:42,790
We've seen Jurassic Park. This does not end well.

1292
01:16:43,010 --> 01:16:44,090
Well, this is like Lyme disease.

1293
01:16:44,990 --> 01:16:52,950
Lyme disease out of Lyme, Connecticut, 20 miles from some bioweapons lab off the coast of Lyme, Connecticut, right?

1294
01:16:52,950 --> 01:16:58,450
So we released a bunch of mosquitoes that supposedly the females are sterile.

1295
01:16:58,770 --> 01:16:58,870
Right.

1296
01:16:59,190 --> 01:17:01,130
But the gene is carried by the males or something.

1297
01:17:01,210 --> 01:17:02,890
So what happens is I did the math.

1298
01:17:03,070 --> 01:17:10,830
I can't remember the details, but I concluded that that specific species of mosquito will go extinct.

1299
01:17:11,090 --> 01:17:13,930
It will spread and it will go extinct the way it's designed,

1300
01:17:14,010 --> 01:17:18,030
unless it can escape, unless it can mutate its way back into non-extinct.

1301
01:17:18,110 --> 01:17:21,590
The question becomes who gave them the right to do this?

1302
01:17:21,950 --> 01:17:26,810
Let's say Bill Gates is seething the clouds with shit for some fucking reason, right?

1303
01:17:26,950 --> 01:17:28,870
I don't know what I think of chemtrails.

1304
01:17:29,130 --> 01:17:30,770
I sure as hell can't dismiss them.

1305
01:17:30,770 --> 01:17:36,610
My brother says a number of times outside there's no cloud, and all of a sudden he's getting rained on.

1306
01:17:36,690 --> 01:17:37,930
It just doesn't even make sense.

1307
01:17:38,110 --> 01:17:44,610
So they talk about putting a blanket over the earth to solve the climate change problem, which is a completely fake problem.

1308
01:17:45,210 --> 01:17:46,410
It's going to be unbelievable.

1309
01:17:46,830 --> 01:17:50,210
The climate change story is going to go away for two reasons.

1310
01:17:50,210 --> 01:17:54,390
One is that it's in the way of the AI problem.

1311
01:17:54,650 --> 01:17:59,090
So you can't have climate change and zero energy and zero carbon shit

1312
01:17:59,090 --> 01:18:01,750
while trying to get enough energy to run AI.

1313
01:18:01,950 --> 01:18:02,610
So they're going to have to go,

1314
01:18:02,870 --> 01:18:04,670
Tio, the climate change thing was bullshit.

1315
01:18:04,770 --> 01:18:05,370
Don't worry about it.

1316
01:18:05,570 --> 01:18:07,050
We need the energy to do AI.

1317
01:18:07,450 --> 01:18:09,390
The second reason it's going to go away

1318
01:18:09,390 --> 01:18:12,950
is because the solar cycles are about to go into a cold spell.

1319
01:18:13,070 --> 01:18:15,570
Solar cycles are so predictable, it's like night and day.

1320
01:18:15,910 --> 01:18:19,430
The physicists can tell you what the solar behavior is going to do

1321
01:18:19,430 --> 01:18:22,870
when it oscillates, and there's oscillations within oscillations,

1322
01:18:22,950 --> 01:18:24,130
and they're very, very predictable.

1323
01:18:24,610 --> 01:18:27,810
And all the solar physicists say we're about to get colder than shit,

1324
01:18:28,010 --> 01:18:30,810
so we're not going to be bitching about how hot it is.

1325
01:18:30,810 --> 01:18:35,010
And the whole climate change narrative is just crappy science.

1326
01:18:35,310 --> 01:18:37,410
It is horribly crappy science.

1327
01:18:37,670 --> 01:18:38,650
And there's lying.

1328
01:18:39,090 --> 01:18:41,430
And the reason why, why would they lie?

1329
01:18:41,510 --> 01:18:44,950
Because there's $150 trillion that have been promised,

1330
01:18:45,070 --> 01:18:46,590
and who doesn't want a piece of that?

1331
01:18:46,590 --> 01:18:51,050
I hate all these square miles of solar panels.

1332
01:18:51,310 --> 01:18:55,730
You think that's worse than releasing CO2 into the air?

1333
01:18:55,790 --> 01:18:57,910
You think that's better than releasing CO2 into the air?

1334
01:18:58,170 --> 01:19:03,810
You see, they don't know how to get rid of the rotors from the windmills, which are horrifically stupid.

1335
01:19:04,130 --> 01:19:05,950
The windmills are horrifically stupid.

1336
01:19:06,510 --> 01:19:13,510
I asked a security analyst, not an equity security analyst, but a national security analyst,

1337
01:19:13,510 --> 01:19:16,110
about energy, about the alternative energies.

1338
01:19:16,110 --> 01:19:19,930
I said, are any of these alternative energies energy positive?

1339
01:19:20,090 --> 01:19:22,230
Cradle to grave analogy, energy positive.

1340
01:19:22,590 --> 01:19:23,350
And he gave me a name.

1341
01:19:23,450 --> 01:19:25,930
It was either something Ray or Way or something like that.

1342
01:19:25,970 --> 01:19:26,770
I've got it written down.

1343
01:19:27,270 --> 01:19:29,170
And he said, so-and-so did the best work.

1344
01:19:29,230 --> 01:19:30,830
He says, zero, no chance.

1345
01:19:31,270 --> 01:19:31,770
No chance.

1346
01:19:31,870 --> 01:19:34,170
Cradle to grave, you don't make energy.

1347
01:19:34,390 --> 01:19:35,350
We've got to go to nukes.

1348
01:19:35,430 --> 01:19:36,030
And guess what?

1349
01:19:36,530 --> 01:19:37,490
We're going to nukes.

1350
01:19:37,550 --> 01:19:38,230
We're going to go there.

1351
01:19:38,610 --> 01:19:39,010
Finally.

1352
01:19:39,590 --> 01:19:40,870
Finally, we're going to go there.

1353
01:19:41,090 --> 01:19:42,070
It's been long overdue.

1354
01:19:42,070 --> 01:19:43,030
I think they're holding.

1355
01:19:43,030 --> 01:19:46,590
I don't believe the nuclear bomb story in a way.

1356
01:19:47,270 --> 01:19:50,670
And I think that was to get us off of nuclear energy.

1357
01:19:51,190 --> 01:19:55,130
And I don't think my hunch is that oil is not really scarce and it doesn't come from.

1358
01:19:55,390 --> 01:19:56,670
That's a Doomburg bottle.

1359
01:19:56,890 --> 01:19:59,430
Doomburg says we've got essentially infinite oil.

1360
01:19:59,770 --> 01:20:02,350
I have a feeling that we have replenishing oil in some way.

1361
01:20:02,690 --> 01:20:04,190
I don't know if that's true.

1362
01:20:04,190 --> 01:20:09,110
I think we have way more than they've intimated to cost up.

1363
01:20:09,110 --> 01:20:13,430
Duhnberg argues that in the absolutely foreseeable future, we got a ton of energy.

1364
01:20:13,710 --> 01:20:14,570
And he's a smart guy.

1365
01:20:14,650 --> 01:20:15,410
I know who he is.

1366
01:20:15,930 --> 01:20:17,450
I know what his career was.

1367
01:20:17,570 --> 01:20:18,350
I listened to him.

1368
01:20:18,950 --> 01:20:22,130
There's no chance I'm going to tell anyone Duhnberg's full of shit.

1369
01:20:22,450 --> 01:20:24,810
He might be wrong, but I ain't going to be the one to say it.

1370
01:20:25,070 --> 01:20:30,210
And so, but with that said, the idea that it's unlimited in a spherical, spherical world,

1371
01:20:30,350 --> 01:20:31,510
there is a limit somewhere.

1372
01:20:31,510 --> 01:20:34,390
But he might be saying, yeah, but it's 500 years from now.

1373
01:20:34,910 --> 01:20:36,270
Now, here's the funny story.

1374
01:20:36,270 --> 01:20:41,330
Exxon did an analysis of climate change literature back in 1984, I think it was.

1375
01:20:41,430 --> 01:20:44,610
And everyone said, ah, Exxon knew there was a problem with climate change.

1376
01:20:44,670 --> 01:20:45,490
That's not what they did.

1377
01:20:45,570 --> 01:20:47,770
They actually asked the question, what's out there?

1378
01:20:47,770 --> 01:20:48,870
And they surveyed the literature.

1379
01:20:49,270 --> 01:20:50,890
They just surveyed the literature.

1380
01:20:51,250 --> 01:20:54,070
And there was a line in there that no one paid attention to.

1381
01:20:54,190 --> 01:20:59,090
They said the odds of climate change becoming a problem is almost zero

1382
01:20:59,090 --> 01:21:01,810
because we're going to run out of oil before we get to that point.

1383
01:21:01,810 --> 01:21:03,650
And no one noticed that claim.

1384
01:21:03,750 --> 01:21:05,750
So that sounds like a peak oil claim, right?

1385
01:21:05,750 --> 01:21:11,630
That's by Exxon, though, which increases the value of their balance sheet because they're predominantly—

1386
01:21:11,630 --> 01:21:14,590
But supposedly it was an internal report that they just created.

1387
01:21:14,870 --> 01:21:18,870
Yeah, it just seems a little too in their interest to have you think oil is scarce.

1388
01:21:19,230 --> 01:21:24,130
And they have so much on their balance sheet, but it was so hard for them to get it, and you can't get the rest.

1389
01:21:24,250 --> 01:21:24,790
And there is very little more.

1390
01:21:24,790 --> 01:21:29,230
But we are drilling in very, very hard-to-get-to places now.

1391
01:21:29,470 --> 01:21:33,410
It's not Jed Clampett shooting his gun into the side of a hill anymore, right?

1392
01:21:33,410 --> 01:21:35,970
The first well was, what, 77 feet deep or something.

1393
01:21:36,270 --> 01:21:41,230
We are now going into the North Sea and the Arctic and miles below the Gulf of Mexico.

1394
01:21:41,810 --> 01:21:44,490
Now, technologically, we are keeping up.

1395
01:21:44,810 --> 01:21:47,230
As we need to get deeper, we are keeping up.

1396
01:21:47,490 --> 01:21:51,810
But it also tells me that it's not an infinitely replenishing system.

1397
01:21:52,230 --> 01:21:57,610
Right, but so much of it we can't get to because we don't have the technology to just refine it or extract it.

1398
01:21:57,610 --> 01:22:04,350
The million dollar question might be as if you could get down to, you know, 50,000 feet or whatever, you know, economically.

1399
01:22:04,830 --> 01:22:08,050
Maybe there really is this gigantic ocean of oil.

1400
01:22:08,410 --> 01:22:12,190
I don't think the fields replenish themselves on a time scale.

1401
01:22:12,190 --> 01:22:15,550
I have no idea, but I think they go dry.

1402
01:22:16,090 --> 01:22:17,290
Well, I think they go dry.

1403
01:22:17,590 --> 01:22:21,150
You see it pop up in some way I have no understanding of.

1404
01:22:21,230 --> 01:22:25,510
I just don't know if I believe that it's as limited or as scarce as they want.

1405
01:22:25,510 --> 01:22:30,550
but we can solve this with nuke so i'm not worried right and i think yeah and i think they could turn

1406
01:22:30,550 --> 01:22:35,190
to nuclear energy which i think they've tried to keep at bay so that they could keep valuing the

1407
01:22:35,190 --> 01:22:40,790
oil as long as possible and then switch when it's convenient for them regardless of how much is

1408
01:22:40,790 --> 01:22:46,070
left over because if there is a limited list less you would or nuclear could still be better and

1409
01:22:46,070 --> 01:22:51,590
you'd want to milk this right right might be a better way to go than fossil fuel yeah by the way

1410
01:22:51,590 --> 01:22:58,590
If fossil fuel is really getting precious, we should stop burning it and start using it for things that you need to make out of fossil fuel.

1411
01:22:58,830 --> 01:22:59,010
Right.

1412
01:22:59,170 --> 01:23:03,830
I think, like, blimp technology was supposed to be, like, superior in a lot of ways to airline travel.

1413
01:23:03,890 --> 01:23:05,590
Maybe not as fast, but much more comfortable.

1414
01:23:05,890 --> 01:23:07,550
Well, I'm told not as fast, yeah.

1415
01:23:07,750 --> 01:23:12,230
Yeah, definitely not as fast, but maybe much more luxurious and economic.

1416
01:23:13,350 --> 01:23:27,200
But tech moves so quickly So the Wright Brothers have you ever read the Wright Brothers biography It a fascinating biography So they invent plane flight right So City Hawk Kitty Hawk there was literally one photo taken at Kitty Hawk

1417
01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:29,980
There's that famous photo of a guy standing on a plane flying by.

1418
01:23:30,160 --> 01:23:33,680
And then what they did is they moved back to Ohio and they kept working on it.

1419
01:23:33,900 --> 01:23:35,960
The world did not know they had flown.

1420
01:23:36,180 --> 01:23:40,340
There were people who claimed to know, but the world had not gotten the message.

1421
01:23:40,340 --> 01:23:45,960
And after two years working in Ohio, they then were contacted by the French military and said,

1422
01:23:46,060 --> 01:23:47,160
we want to buy your company.

1423
01:23:47,440 --> 01:23:48,480
The French military.

1424
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:52,020
So the military was right away onto the, this could be valuable.

1425
01:23:52,420 --> 01:23:54,740
And they said, no, we will sell you one plane.

1426
01:23:54,960 --> 01:23:55,860
And they said, okay.

1427
01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,120
So they packed the plane up and go to France.

1428
01:23:58,400 --> 01:24:01,220
Somehow, mysteriously, the plane arrives at Speed to Shed.

1429
01:24:01,440 --> 01:24:03,140
But the good news is the Wright brothers built it.

1430
01:24:03,200 --> 01:24:04,660
They knew how to rebuild it, right?

1431
01:24:04,980 --> 01:24:06,520
So they work on it for months.

1432
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:08,860
Then there's this big day and they'd wheel the plane out.

1433
01:24:08,860 --> 01:24:10,480
and they'd work on it and they'd do some stuff.

1434
01:24:10,560 --> 01:24:12,000
Then they'd wheel it back in the hangar.

1435
01:24:12,520 --> 01:24:16,880
The French were torn between those who were sure this was going to be amazing

1436
01:24:16,880 --> 01:24:19,040
and those who thought they were just charlatans.

1437
01:24:19,260 --> 01:24:20,500
That was the big debate.

1438
01:24:20,820 --> 01:24:24,480
So one day they finally bring it out and they fly,

1439
01:24:24,860 --> 01:24:26,600
and they're doing figure eights.

1440
01:24:26,860 --> 01:24:28,360
And all of a sudden it's like, holy fuck.

1441
01:24:28,420 --> 01:24:30,600
The next year they had a flying competition.

1442
01:24:30,760 --> 01:24:32,000
There were 23 entrants.

1443
01:24:32,120 --> 01:24:35,120
That's how fast technology catches once you...

1444
01:24:35,120 --> 01:24:39,180
And by 1914, the militaries were using planes.

1445
01:24:39,540 --> 01:24:41,120
I think it was Orville or Wilbur.

1446
01:24:41,400 --> 01:24:44,580
Orville or Wilbur witnessed jets flying.

1447
01:24:45,120 --> 01:24:46,260
Holy shit.

1448
01:24:46,360 --> 01:24:48,060
One of the two saw jets fly.

1449
01:24:48,440 --> 01:24:49,240
That's amazing.

1450
01:24:49,540 --> 01:24:52,380
My mind thinks that those companies, those 14 companies,

1451
01:24:52,380 --> 01:24:56,180
were around way before the story of the Wright brothers,

1452
01:24:56,280 --> 01:24:57,240
and they roll out the story.

1453
01:24:57,240 --> 01:24:58,720
Well, I think people were trying to get it.

1454
01:24:58,880 --> 01:25:00,020
I think they were trying to get it,

1455
01:25:00,160 --> 01:25:01,740
and probably the Wright brothers gave me,

1456
01:25:01,860 --> 01:25:04,220
oh, this is the piece we were missing.

1457
01:25:04,220 --> 01:25:09,180
I think they probably said, okay, now we can now modify our design.

1458
01:25:09,300 --> 01:25:13,580
So I think those 23 entrants were, they didn't go from a cold start.

1459
01:25:13,900 --> 01:25:15,440
But here's a great story.

1460
01:25:15,840 --> 01:25:18,760
The guys who were betting on AI to make them rich.

1461
01:25:19,700 --> 01:25:26,220
Gundlach pointed out that electricity, what's more profound, AI or the Internet?

1462
01:25:26,600 --> 01:25:28,140
I think the Internet's more profound.

1463
01:25:28,520 --> 01:25:30,360
I think AI is a derivative of the Internet.

1464
01:25:30,600 --> 01:25:32,920
What's more profound, the Internet or electricity?

1465
01:25:32,920 --> 01:25:35,700
And I say, oh, electricity, way more important.

1466
01:25:35,820 --> 01:25:40,200
When we electrify the world, holy shit, what's more important than that, fire or electricity?

1467
01:25:40,480 --> 01:25:41,620
You've got to go with fire.

1468
01:25:42,200 --> 01:25:43,080
You've got to go with fire.

1469
01:25:43,460 --> 01:25:47,200
So we have been actually getting incrementally less impressive with time.

1470
01:25:47,480 --> 01:25:48,380
Now, here's the deal.

1471
01:25:48,500 --> 01:25:51,880
Gundlach points out that electricity stocks soared.

1472
01:25:52,120 --> 01:25:53,840
They peaked in 1911.

1473
01:25:54,400 --> 01:25:57,840
Electricity was barely existing in 1911.

1474
01:25:58,000 --> 01:26:00,480
So the guys who think they're going to get rich off AI,

1475
01:26:00,480 --> 01:26:04,520
if it follows the same path, their gains might be in the rearview mirror.

1476
01:26:04,940 --> 01:26:08,100
I think AI might be in that sort of that pets.com moment

1477
01:26:08,100 --> 01:26:11,160
where we might have a big CapEx bust

1478
01:26:11,160 --> 01:26:14,420
and there's not the revenue on the horizon that they're arguing.

1479
01:26:15,040 --> 01:26:16,580
And I think, again, they're giving this story.

1480
01:26:16,780 --> 01:26:19,880
So Ben Affleck just said this on, I think, Rogan.

1481
01:26:20,620 --> 01:26:21,720
Was he on with Damon?

1482
01:26:21,720 --> 01:26:23,180
I think he was on with Damon.

1483
01:26:24,020 --> 01:26:27,260
But I think sort of like 2000, though, even if we have a bust in AI,

1484
01:26:27,340 --> 01:26:28,500
I don't think it's the end of AI.

1485
01:26:28,500 --> 01:26:30,500
Oh, no, it's not the end of AI at all.

1486
01:26:30,580 --> 01:26:31,400
It's part of the process.

1487
01:26:31,680 --> 01:26:36,860
I think there will be some value to come, however society extracts that into the markets.

1488
01:26:37,100 --> 01:26:40,740
But what I find most interesting, and I think Edward Dowd said this in a clip I saw somewhere,

1489
01:26:41,140 --> 01:26:49,100
is how we're rooting for our own dystopic future, not just by going on Facebook and being a user and giving our data for free,

1490
01:26:49,160 --> 01:26:54,220
but we're actually investing in these companies' capabilities through the stock market,

1491
01:26:54,320 --> 01:26:58,140
voluntarily through our 401ks and our own retirement vehicles.

1492
01:26:58,140 --> 01:27:01,920
I had long chats with Eddie before he became famous Eddie.

1493
01:27:02,240 --> 01:27:03,040
Long chats.

1494
01:27:03,540 --> 01:27:05,500
And we talked about dark things.

1495
01:27:05,680 --> 01:27:08,680
The things you and I talked about, we talked about shit like that.

1496
01:27:09,200 --> 01:27:09,920
It was fun.

1497
01:27:10,220 --> 01:27:13,200
Eddie can go outside the box comfortably.

1498
01:27:13,460 --> 01:27:14,240
I just can't believe.

1499
01:27:14,480 --> 01:27:17,980
Now he's more careful because he's a famous guy with a brand.

1500
01:27:18,680 --> 01:27:22,580
And not that he's dishonest, but, you know, he's now trying to run money.

1501
01:27:22,580 --> 01:27:25,900
And you can't look like you're insane and run money.

1502
01:27:26,320 --> 01:27:27,180
You know, that sort of thing.

1503
01:27:27,180 --> 01:27:30,960
But people are rooting for their stocks to do well.

1504
01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:35,200
And if these companies do well, they build our financial panopticon.

1505
01:27:35,840 --> 01:27:42,360
And the other thing with nuclear is one of the stories I can't square in my head, the circle, is Chernobyl.

1506
01:27:42,760 --> 01:27:46,460
And what a wonderful, lush environment it's become.

1507
01:27:47,600 --> 01:27:51,340
You mean the lockdown area of Chernobyl?

1508
01:27:51,740 --> 01:27:53,660
And how rapidly that happened.

1509
01:27:54,300 --> 01:27:56,360
How quickly nature took it back?

1510
01:27:56,360 --> 01:27:58,980
Yeah, it just doesn't, I don't know.

1511
01:27:59,320 --> 01:28:00,120
It makes me wonder.

1512
01:28:00,300 --> 01:28:00,600
That's all.

1513
01:28:00,680 --> 01:28:01,260
It's one of those things.

1514
01:28:01,280 --> 01:28:04,600
Well, no, I think that's consistent with the dystopian movies.

1515
01:28:04,920 --> 01:28:07,720
The depreciation rate of civilization is about 25 years.

1516
01:28:07,840 --> 01:28:11,660
So we have basically created a technological world by putting in,

1517
01:28:11,920 --> 01:28:13,380
do you have any science training?

1518
01:28:13,560 --> 01:28:14,820
Do you have any science background?

1519
01:28:15,180 --> 01:28:15,740
High school.

1520
01:28:15,960 --> 01:28:17,120
So enthalpy is heat.

1521
01:28:17,260 --> 01:28:17,780
That's energy.

1522
01:28:17,900 --> 01:28:18,760
That's fossil fuel.

1523
01:28:19,380 --> 01:28:19,860
Enthalpy.

1524
01:28:20,040 --> 01:28:24,540
You put in the heat to do work that creates civilized society.

1525
01:28:24,540 --> 01:28:31,820
you want to find out how much energy it takes to keep society from decaying you just turn it off

1526
01:28:31,820 --> 01:28:37,580
and you'll watch within 25 years nothing will work buildings will be falling just like in the sci-fi

1527
01:28:37,580 --> 01:28:44,800
movie and so what you find is that if you analyze how much wealth we've created since say the time

1528
01:28:44,800 --> 01:28:49,840
of christ as humans how much have we accumulated how much wealth we accumulate if you try to put

1529
01:28:49,840 --> 01:28:54,520
a price tag on the known world you got to give real estate some price in modern dollars you got

1530
01:28:54,520 --> 01:28:59,020
to give the pyramid some price. You got to give housing some price. You might say the world was

1531
01:28:59,020 --> 01:29:04,320
worth a billion dollars, five billion dollars, something like that, right? Over 2,000 years,

1532
01:29:04,940 --> 01:29:09,240
our current, there's actually, you can find the estimated book value of the world now,

1533
01:29:09,280 --> 01:29:13,400
and I can't remember the numbers, but it's in the hundreds of trillions, right? It compounded

1534
01:29:13,400 --> 01:29:19,680
in a fraction of a percent. What it tells you is, is that we create wealth at pretty much the same

1535
01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:25,380
rate that we consume it and destroy it. And that makes sense. You create it, you use it. You create

1536
01:29:25,380 --> 01:29:30,440
it, you use it. But it decays very quickly. Just turn off the energy and watch what happens and

1537
01:29:30,440 --> 01:29:36,540
everything goes to shit. It takes a lot of energy just to keep things running. And so what did we

1538
01:29:36,540 --> 01:29:43,720
compound over 2,000 years? We compounded knowledge. That's the only durable thing. So this idea that in

1539
01:29:43,720 --> 01:29:50,820
a modern society we can grow wealth at three percent a year maybe we can but my guess is we're

1540
01:29:50,820 --> 01:29:56,060
going to create wealth at roughly the rate that we consume it and destroy it which means three percent

1541
01:29:56,060 --> 01:30:00,520
just happens to be a window of time where it appeared to compound at three percent and then

1542
01:30:00,520 --> 01:30:04,140
we're going to nuke it or we're going to do something just like they did in the past where

1543
01:30:04,140 --> 01:30:09,260
they you know burn cities to the ground and destroyed entire civilizations and so there's a

1544
01:30:09,260 --> 01:30:14,920
recency bias. We think that we can just grow at 3% a year. Albert Bartlett, there's a guy named

1545
01:30:14,920 --> 01:30:19,800
Albert Bartlett on YouTube. He talks about the failure to understand the exponential function.

1546
01:30:20,100 --> 01:30:24,640
And he basically says, if you don't understand the exponential function, the role of compounding,

1547
01:30:24,860 --> 01:30:28,860
they say, you know, these guys who say the greatest invention is compound interest, right? You know,

1548
01:30:28,860 --> 01:30:33,620
you've heard that phrase, Einstein gets credited, Mark Train gets credited, all these guys get

1549
01:30:33,620 --> 01:30:40,180
accredited. And it turns out, I think it's a fiction. It compounds for a while, then it goes

1550
01:30:40,180 --> 01:30:43,880
to shit. You know, it's like I was on a podcast the other day, and they talked about, we talked

1551
01:30:43,880 --> 01:30:48,940
about equities, outdoing bonds. And I said, well, equity has what's called a risk premium, right?

1552
01:30:49,380 --> 01:30:54,800
The people focus on the premium, but they fail to listen to the word risk. And it turns out,

1553
01:30:54,840 --> 01:30:59,920
if you look at 200 years of investing, if you take the 20 years after World War II,

1554
01:30:59,920 --> 01:31:04,260
where they shoved bond rates something like double digit below inflation.

1555
01:31:04,540 --> 01:31:07,780
Financial repression was off the charts after World War II

1556
01:31:07,780 --> 01:31:10,220
to deal presumably with the debt.

1557
01:31:10,480 --> 01:31:12,260
If you take away those 20 years,

1558
01:31:12,720 --> 01:31:15,400
the other 180 years, bonds and stocks tie.

1559
01:31:15,720 --> 01:31:17,400
Why do equities have a risk premium?

1560
01:31:17,400 --> 01:31:20,540
Because once in a while, they kick your ass.

1561
01:31:21,100 --> 01:31:24,400
And everyone likes to find the window where they didn't kick your ass

1562
01:31:24,400 --> 01:31:26,340
and say equities always do better.

1563
01:31:26,600 --> 01:31:28,660
This guy in McQuarrie, by the way, did this analysis,

1564
01:31:28,660 --> 01:31:31,360
has said Siegel is a lying pig fucker.

1565
01:31:31,460 --> 01:31:32,680
I mean, he really calls it.

1566
01:31:32,740 --> 01:31:35,280
He doesn't, those are my words, right?

1567
01:31:35,420 --> 01:31:37,340
Not McQuarrie's for the record.

1568
01:31:37,700 --> 01:31:40,960
But he says Siegel cherry picks his story.

1569
01:31:41,220 --> 01:31:42,960
He says Siegel's full of crap.

1570
01:31:43,140 --> 01:31:44,200
And he was shocked.

1571
01:31:44,320 --> 01:31:46,100
McQuarrie was shocked when I highlighted it

1572
01:31:46,100 --> 01:31:47,060
in one of my hearing reviews.

1573
01:31:47,220 --> 01:31:49,160
He said, I didn't realize I'd get this much press

1574
01:31:49,160 --> 01:31:49,860
on this paper.

1575
01:31:50,120 --> 01:31:51,800
And so at some point,

1576
01:31:51,820 --> 01:31:53,180
we're going to shake the etch-a-sketch

1577
01:31:53,180 --> 01:31:54,120
on the equity market

1578
01:31:54,120 --> 01:31:56,220
because it is way the hell out of whack.

1579
01:31:56,420 --> 01:31:57,920
And I'm tired of people saying

1580
01:31:57,920 --> 01:32:01,560
that the valuations are insane, I go, no, no, no, no.

1581
01:32:01,740 --> 01:32:03,720
Give me a number. Give me a number.

1582
01:32:04,020 --> 01:32:06,860
Because the average joker thinks valuation being insane

1583
01:32:06,860 --> 01:32:09,300
means 20% over historical valuation.

1584
01:32:09,560 --> 01:32:12,520
I have it at 200, and I can make the case.

1585
01:32:12,860 --> 01:32:15,640
Now, someone else, you want to make the case for 50%,

1586
01:32:15,640 --> 01:32:17,340
have a ball, but you've got to make it.

1587
01:32:17,460 --> 01:32:18,880
You just can't say insane.

1588
01:32:19,560 --> 01:32:21,640
You can't say equities are fairly priced.

1589
01:32:21,880 --> 01:32:23,140
You've got to make the case.

1590
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:27,040
My case I have made year after year after year,

1591
01:32:27,040 --> 01:32:31,980
And they're more insane now than they were 10 years ago for 45 years.

1592
01:32:32,120 --> 01:32:33,100
Here's an amazing...

1593
01:32:33,100 --> 01:32:34,860
Anyone who understands valuations,

1594
01:32:35,040 --> 01:32:38,800
which most of the investing world doesn't even understand what a valuation is,

1595
01:32:39,100 --> 01:32:41,780
it's a price divided by something it should track.

1596
01:32:42,260 --> 01:32:43,140
It's that simple.

1597
01:32:43,760 --> 01:32:45,400
Revenues, book value, you name it.

1598
01:32:45,440 --> 01:32:46,960
There's like dozens of them.

1599
01:32:47,220 --> 01:32:48,780
But they're both inflation sensitive.

1600
01:32:48,940 --> 01:32:49,680
They should track.

1601
01:32:49,780 --> 01:32:52,820
So inflation doesn't make one go up relative to the other.

1602
01:32:53,640 --> 01:32:54,920
Everything's inflation sensitive.

1603
01:32:54,920 --> 01:32:57,140
And for 110 years, they tracked.

1604
01:32:57,240 --> 01:32:59,900
They just kind of channeled, and then they took off over the last 30.

1605
01:33:00,260 --> 01:33:06,440
From 1981 to the present, valuations compounded, annualized, 4% a year.

1606
01:33:06,760 --> 01:33:08,880
That's insane. That's insane.

1607
01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:13,560
We went from the lowest valuations in history to the highest valuations in history

1608
01:33:13,560 --> 01:33:18,360
by over 45 years by compounding at four valuations, 4%.

1609
01:33:18,360 --> 01:33:22,540
And if people say, well, that's just depreciation of the money, I go, you didn't listen to me.

1610
01:33:22,540 --> 01:33:26,240
The numerator and the denominator are both inflation sensitive.

1611
01:33:26,820 --> 01:33:30,120
If they're just destroying the money, the revenues are going to go up too.

1612
01:33:30,540 --> 01:33:36,640
So you can't solve a valuation problem by printing because the two will just respond.

1613
01:33:37,020 --> 01:33:38,280
Here's what will happen.

1614
01:33:38,580 --> 01:33:41,280
If you start printing and you really create inflation,

1615
01:33:41,700 --> 01:33:48,080
then all of a sudden that 200% overvaluation to an investor who finally wakes up is going to say,

1616
01:33:48,720 --> 01:33:51,740
holy shit, that's a terrible investment.

1617
01:33:51,740 --> 01:33:55,520
because I'm pricing it 2% a year, 2.5% a year.

1618
01:33:55,960 --> 01:33:58,120
And we've got bonds now paying 10.

1619
01:33:58,480 --> 01:34:00,400
Why the fuck would I own an equity?

1620
01:34:00,920 --> 01:34:04,000
Or let's say the bond market gets its ass kicked, right?

1621
01:34:04,120 --> 01:34:08,300
30-year treasuries in Japan are up to almost 4% now.

1622
01:34:08,420 --> 01:34:10,080
Where's the carry trade explosion?

1623
01:34:10,200 --> 01:34:10,660
I'm waiting.

1624
01:34:10,880 --> 01:34:12,160
It's got to be there.

1625
01:34:12,740 --> 01:34:15,680
The carry trade has been huge for years and years.

1626
01:34:16,240 --> 01:34:17,700
Something's got to be breaking.

1627
01:34:18,000 --> 01:34:19,540
I haven't found it yet.

1628
01:34:19,540 --> 01:34:22,800
But when it goes, it's going to be unbelievable, in my opinion.

1629
01:34:23,500 --> 01:34:29,960
But if bonds take off, here's something that Mike Green pointed out that I didn't understand until he said it.

1630
01:34:30,120 --> 01:34:40,760
He says, if bonds take off, meaning the value goes down, a mandated 60-40 portfolio has now dropped to more like 65-35.

1631
01:34:41,220 --> 01:34:46,660
And therefore, you have to sell your equities to buy your bonds.

1632
01:34:46,660 --> 01:34:49,560
to get back to your mandated 60-40.

1633
01:34:49,920 --> 01:34:55,920
And so the equities, a bond-bear market will cause an equity-bear market for those portfolios.

1634
01:34:56,120 --> 01:35:00,560
If the passive flows reverse, and someday they will, I don't know when,

1635
01:35:00,840 --> 01:35:03,280
people will say, look, if you can't tell me when, what good does that go?

1636
01:35:03,500 --> 01:35:07,720
I'm telling you, you're about to get hit with a goddamn thermonuclear weapon.

1637
01:35:07,860 --> 01:35:09,380
I can't tell you what day it is.

1638
01:35:09,560 --> 01:35:11,400
But you should be building a bomb shelter.

1639
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:13,000
You should be worried about this.

1640
01:35:13,000 --> 01:35:16,300
You should be trying to figure out how to survive when it finally does happen.

1641
01:35:16,300 --> 01:35:18,340
And when it does, it's not going to tell you.

1642
01:35:18,800 --> 01:35:21,400
I mean, actually, sometimes the bell does ring at the top.

1643
01:35:21,480 --> 01:35:22,520
Sometimes it's really obvious.

1644
01:35:22,760 --> 01:35:24,480
But, you know, you watch it.

1645
01:35:24,580 --> 01:35:30,520
The market goes down to 20% and then bounces back 20% within a year.

1646
01:35:30,640 --> 01:35:31,640
That corrected nothing.

1647
01:35:31,980 --> 01:35:34,600
It has reinforced investors' cockiness.

1648
01:35:34,960 --> 01:35:38,700
It has reinforced the belief that you simply should never sell.

1649
01:35:38,780 --> 01:35:39,900
You should just hang on to.

1650
01:35:40,200 --> 01:35:42,060
That is so wrong.

1651
01:35:42,420 --> 01:35:45,200
If you own the 29 top, you are even in 1981.

1652
01:35:45,620 --> 01:35:46,100
Wow.

1653
01:35:46,300 --> 01:35:51,060
inflation adjusted, not including dividends and not including taxes and fees.

1654
01:35:51,300 --> 01:35:53,180
But taxes and fees and dividends, right?

1655
01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:56,200
That means we averaged 4% dividends through that period.

1656
01:35:56,440 --> 01:35:57,860
But the fees were at least 1%.

1657
01:35:58,420 --> 01:36:02,680
The taxes and the 4% bring it down to what, 3%, 2%, something like that.

1658
01:36:02,980 --> 01:36:03,880
Now the fees.

1659
01:36:04,160 --> 01:36:05,640
And you say, well, the fees are cheap now.

1660
01:36:05,700 --> 01:36:08,800
I said, so those guys doing hookers and blowing Wall Street are working for free?

1661
01:36:09,160 --> 01:36:10,360
They're getting paid by somebody.

1662
01:36:10,360 --> 01:36:15,000
And so Ron Grice corrects inflation using M2.

1663
01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:24,940
And over the last 100 years, the S&P corrected using M2 capital gains has sloped downward.

1664
01:36:25,300 --> 01:36:30,260
If you correct for M2 and you consider total return, including the dividends,

1665
01:36:30,940 --> 01:36:39,240
it has a net positive return of 3.77% over 100 years, not including taxes and fees.

1666
01:36:39,240 --> 01:36:41,460
and not only taxes and fees,

1667
01:36:41,760 --> 01:36:43,920
but in inflation adjusted plot,

1668
01:36:44,280 --> 01:36:45,660
you don't see inflation.

1669
01:36:45,660 --> 01:36:46,660
But when you get taxed,

1670
01:36:47,300 --> 01:36:48,900
you get taxed on the inflation.

1671
01:36:49,180 --> 01:36:50,520
So if your equity's doubled

1672
01:36:50,520 --> 01:36:51,600
just because of inflation,

1673
01:36:51,800 --> 01:36:52,700
you didn't get anything,

1674
01:36:52,860 --> 01:36:54,660
but you're going to get taxed on that profit.

1675
01:36:55,020 --> 01:36:56,660
So your nominal gains will get taxed,

1676
01:36:57,340 --> 01:36:58,900
even though they're not real gains.

1677
01:36:59,140 --> 01:37:01,160
And so we are teed up

1678
01:37:01,160 --> 01:37:03,700
for a terrible period of investing.

1679
01:37:04,040 --> 01:37:05,720
And the guys who are the most bearish,

1680
01:37:05,820 --> 01:37:07,460
I don't think they're being honest with you.

1681
01:37:07,460 --> 01:37:20,070
I think they pulling their punches I think I the only guy who going out over his skis as far as he can lean And I don want to hear anyone all you guys who are out there you punists don say valuations are insane

1682
01:37:20,350 --> 01:37:21,450
Give me a fucking number.

1683
01:37:21,610 --> 01:37:22,970
Because insane could mean anything.

1684
01:37:23,070 --> 01:37:23,970
It's a vague term.

1685
01:37:24,190 --> 01:37:25,210
You mean 22%.

1686
01:37:25,210 --> 01:37:26,090
Yeah, yeah.

1687
01:37:26,270 --> 01:37:28,890
And don't tell me we corrected when it bounces right back.

1688
01:37:29,350 --> 01:37:33,850
You've reinforced investors' confidence that the Fed will always protect us.

1689
01:37:33,850 --> 01:37:35,630
I go, Mao killed 80 million people.

1690
01:37:35,730 --> 01:37:37,470
What makes you think the state will protect you?

1691
01:37:37,470 --> 01:37:39,090
The state doesn't care about you.

1692
01:37:39,210 --> 01:37:40,730
The elite doesn't care about you.

1693
01:37:40,890 --> 01:37:44,010
Only to the extent that you become dangerous to them.

1694
01:37:44,290 --> 01:37:45,310
That's all they care about.

1695
01:37:45,530 --> 01:37:45,770
I agree with that.

1696
01:37:45,770 --> 01:37:48,270
Larry Fink doesn't, Larry Fink doesn't care about you.

1697
01:37:48,350 --> 01:37:49,850
Larry Fink in your report said,

1698
01:37:49,950 --> 01:37:51,050
Markets don't like uncertainty.

1699
01:37:51,230 --> 01:37:53,130
Markets like totalitarian government.

1700
01:37:53,390 --> 01:37:54,630
Isn't that a great quote?

1701
01:37:55,330 --> 01:37:55,810
Wow.

1702
01:37:55,930 --> 01:37:57,330
Well, we're heading for that one.

1703
01:37:57,930 --> 01:38:02,370
And I think the CIO of BlackRock is one of the candidates to be the new Fed chair.

1704
01:38:02,710 --> 01:38:03,410
Oh, no doubt.

1705
01:38:03,810 --> 01:38:05,310
And I wanted to run this by you.

1706
01:38:05,310 --> 01:38:09,430
Did you know that prediction markets were a former DARPA project?

1707
01:38:09,810 --> 01:38:10,910
No, not a bit.

1708
01:38:11,270 --> 01:38:14,490
And that was because I remember right before I saw that tweet.

1709
01:38:14,630 --> 01:38:17,270
You mean Predict It and Cal Shia and those guys?

1710
01:38:17,650 --> 01:38:19,010
Polymarket, I'm a think.

1711
01:38:19,350 --> 01:38:20,570
Polymarket, Polymarket.

1712
01:38:20,730 --> 01:38:32,330
Per this CIA website in 2001, the DARPA agency started experimenting with methods for applying DARPA's future markets applied to prediction future map program.

1713
01:38:32,330 --> 01:38:36,810
tested whether prediction markets, markets in which people bet on the likelihood of future events,

1714
01:38:36,890 --> 01:38:41,150
could be used to improve upon existing approaches to preparing strategic intelligence.

1715
01:38:41,590 --> 01:38:47,590
The program was canceled in the summer of 2003 under a barrage of congressional criticism.

1716
01:38:47,790 --> 01:38:50,210
They didn't cancel it, right?

1717
01:38:50,450 --> 01:38:53,830
No, no, no, but, you know, it's like the CIA canceling MKU.

1718
01:38:53,910 --> 01:38:55,790
Okay, we won't do it anymore, right?

1719
01:38:55,890 --> 01:38:58,330
Oh, no, they'd never just keep doing it.

1720
01:38:58,390 --> 01:39:00,730
It's like when they moved gain-of-function offshore.

1721
01:39:00,730 --> 01:39:03,870
You know, so here's one that's consistent with your idea.

1722
01:39:04,050 --> 01:39:07,630
I was talking to a military guy at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

1723
01:39:08,110 --> 01:39:14,490
And, you know, come on, the Israeli company, Peter Thiel, give me the name.

1724
01:39:14,850 --> 01:39:15,630
Are you talking about Palantir?

1725
01:39:16,270 --> 01:39:16,750
Palantir.

1726
01:39:16,950 --> 01:39:17,770
Palantir, supposedly.

1727
01:39:18,010 --> 01:39:22,130
You try to find when Palantir started writing software around 2002, right?

1728
01:39:22,310 --> 01:39:24,250
Not just that they founded some.

1729
01:39:24,630 --> 01:39:27,690
I've tried to find out when they first started writing software.

1730
01:39:27,690 --> 01:39:29,910
And I've tried to use AI to find out.

1731
01:39:29,910 --> 01:39:31,270
I've quizzed and stuff like that.

1732
01:39:31,330 --> 01:39:33,030
You keep coming back to 2002.

1733
01:39:33,470 --> 01:39:36,150
He said he saw Palantir software in 1996.

1734
01:39:36,710 --> 01:39:38,570
That is consistent with the Cedric,

1735
01:39:38,810 --> 01:39:41,890
they have it way before they let you know they have it model.

1736
01:39:42,430 --> 01:39:44,170
There's no question that's true.

1737
01:39:44,530 --> 01:39:47,730
And they're not going to release it until they're done doing what they need to do.

1738
01:39:47,810 --> 01:39:51,930
And by the way, I looked into DEWs a couple years ago when Maui burned to the ground

1739
01:39:51,930 --> 01:39:55,470
because there was some question of whether they got fried by DEWs.

1740
01:39:55,470 --> 01:40:00,710
I was reading 40-year-old Rand reports about DEWs that were terrifying.

1741
01:40:01,110 --> 01:40:02,830
The shit they could do 40 years ago.

1742
01:40:02,910 --> 01:40:06,610
And this was outside the paywall 40 years ago.

1743
01:40:06,730 --> 01:40:09,550
What do they have behind the paywall now?

1744
01:40:10,270 --> 01:40:12,510
Holy moly, what can they do?

1745
01:40:12,510 --> 01:40:15,930
And I listed George Friedman on Tucker, I think.

1746
01:40:16,190 --> 01:40:21,550
George Friedman ran Stratford, which wrapped up instantly when they got their emails hacked.

1747
01:40:21,650 --> 01:40:23,050
Two million emails got hacked.

1748
01:40:23,310 --> 01:40:25,330
Stratford disappeared in a heartbeat.

1749
01:40:25,470 --> 01:40:28,250
They just wrapped up shop, closed it right up.

1750
01:40:28,350 --> 01:40:31,510
Friedman says we grotesquely, intentionally grotesquely,

1751
01:40:31,630 --> 01:40:33,250
understate our capabilities.

1752
01:40:33,710 --> 01:40:35,630
We are hiding so many capabilities.

1753
01:40:35,810 --> 01:40:40,470
I can remember decades ago talking to a guy who wanted to join the Air Force.

1754
01:40:40,590 --> 01:40:42,850
He said, oh, yeah, like you're flying your plane.

1755
01:40:43,230 --> 01:40:45,390
You pass out, the plane just flies you home.

1756
01:40:45,770 --> 01:40:47,110
And at the time, I go, wow.

1757
01:40:47,190 --> 01:40:48,910
And then I go, yeah, that makes sense.

1758
01:40:49,070 --> 01:40:52,570
But it's still pretty surreal now that we're, you know, given it.

1759
01:40:52,610 --> 01:40:54,050
That's something you'd say now.

1760
01:40:54,050 --> 01:40:56,250
but back in 1990?

1761
01:40:56,830 --> 01:40:57,370
Well, that was something,

1762
01:40:57,610 --> 01:40:59,470
nothing that came up with Aaron Day.

1763
01:40:59,630 --> 01:41:00,470
So like just, you know,

1764
01:41:00,510 --> 01:41:01,550
the narratives you hear about, say,

1765
01:41:01,590 --> 01:41:02,510
China come from,

1766
01:41:02,650 --> 01:41:03,330
when I was growing up,

1767
01:41:03,350 --> 01:41:04,710
came from really three channels

1768
01:41:04,710 --> 01:41:05,570
or, you know,

1769
01:41:05,770 --> 01:41:07,110
public education school books.

1770
01:41:07,230 --> 01:41:08,210
What do you think of the dissident

1771
01:41:08,210 --> 01:41:09,190
who said maybe there's

1772
01:41:09,190 --> 01:41:10,890
1.4 billion people in China?

1773
01:41:11,150 --> 01:41:13,130
Who says there's not 1.4 billion?

1774
01:41:13,550 --> 01:41:14,810
I don't know about this.

1775
01:41:15,110 --> 01:41:16,190
This Chinese dissident

1776
01:41:16,190 --> 01:41:17,710
has the entire internet

1777
01:41:17,710 --> 01:41:20,210
questioning how many humans truly exist

1778
01:41:20,210 --> 01:41:22,150
after she claims China's population

1779
01:41:22,150 --> 01:41:23,930
is actually under 500 million.

1780
01:41:24,050 --> 01:41:25,430
instead of 1.4 billion.

1781
01:41:25,690 --> 01:41:28,550
This was on like the Donnie, some show, I don't know.

1782
01:41:28,730 --> 01:41:30,410
Danny Jones, Danny Jones?

1783
01:41:30,510 --> 01:41:31,910
Maybe Danny Jones, that's what it looks like.

1784
01:41:31,970 --> 01:41:32,650
Yeah, Danny Jones.

1785
01:41:33,190 --> 01:41:34,790
Yeah, that looks like Danny Jones.

1786
01:41:35,230 --> 01:41:38,190
You know, I've heard some people mock this dissident,

1787
01:41:38,350 --> 01:41:41,710
but it would not surprise me if all countries,

1788
01:41:41,870 --> 01:41:44,710
every country had fibbed up numbers tremendously.

1789
01:41:45,130 --> 01:41:49,350
I am confident that they know they can't suppress the truth,

1790
01:41:49,350 --> 01:41:51,350
so they just have to bury us in bullshit.

1791
01:41:51,850 --> 01:41:55,030
They have got us chasing laser pointers like cats.

1792
01:41:55,150 --> 01:41:56,070
They'll just throw more.

1793
01:41:56,170 --> 01:42:00,450
It's like the jet that flies and throws the shit out the back of the plane

1794
01:42:00,450 --> 01:42:03,230
so that guided missiles don't know what to aim at and stuff like that.

1795
01:42:03,510 --> 01:42:04,810
They are just throwing bullshit.

1796
01:42:05,390 --> 01:42:08,510
And, by the way, when we bite them, they can say,

1797
01:42:08,510 --> 01:42:10,310
look at these idiots, they got it wrong.

1798
01:42:10,750 --> 01:42:12,630
I don't trust a lot of them.

1799
01:42:12,730 --> 01:42:16,690
Like, there's a guy named Kiriakou, who supposedly is ex-CIA,

1800
01:42:17,230 --> 01:42:18,910
and he did some jail time.

1801
01:42:18,910 --> 01:42:22,070
But I'm not sure there's ever such a thing as ex-CIA.

1802
01:42:22,510 --> 01:42:22,610
Right.

1803
01:42:22,930 --> 01:42:27,670
I think you get old to the point where you're ex-CIA when you're doddering.

1804
01:42:27,830 --> 01:42:27,890
Okay.

1805
01:42:28,470 --> 01:42:29,970
Did you read my interview?

1806
01:42:30,910 --> 01:42:34,350
I don't want to interrupt, but if you were truly ex-CIA, you wouldn't go around telling people.

1807
01:42:34,470 --> 01:42:35,250
You would just disappear.

1808
01:42:35,690 --> 01:42:36,130
Right.

1809
01:42:36,510 --> 01:42:42,890
I have a box of pictures of my grandfather who was trying to set up a banking system in Southeast Asia.

1810
01:42:42,890 --> 01:42:45,610
And I asked my dad, you know, did it work?

1811
01:42:45,610 --> 01:42:50,310
and he ended up being the president of the Bridgehampton National Bank, right?

1812
01:42:50,410 --> 01:42:51,630
It had like six branches.

1813
01:42:51,990 --> 01:42:55,070
He lived in a house in Long Island, in Bridgehampton, Long Island.

1814
01:42:55,430 --> 01:42:58,850
And he said, no, because everyone was so crooked,

1815
01:42:59,070 --> 01:43:01,910
and he was trying to set it up in Thailand, and everyone was so crooked.

1816
01:43:02,670 --> 01:43:09,250
And then what I did put two and two together is he was doing this from 1955 to 62, right?

1817
01:43:09,250 --> 01:43:14,430
And there was not an American in Southeast Asia from 1955 to 62

1818
01:43:14,430 --> 01:43:16,990
who didn't have CIA's hooks in their ass.

1819
01:43:17,230 --> 01:43:20,770
And I'm going through these pictures of him with my grandmother on elephants

1820
01:43:20,770 --> 01:43:23,610
and at cafes and shit, and all of a sudden there's a picture of him

1821
01:43:23,610 --> 01:43:26,650
standing in front of a Huey with a bunch of soldiers

1822
01:43:26,650 --> 01:43:31,590
and a picture of him standing with some Southeast Asian with a machine gun,

1823
01:43:31,670 --> 01:43:34,010
and I'm going, oh yeah, that must be his teller.

1824
01:43:37,530 --> 01:43:39,530
My grandfather was CIA.

1825
01:43:39,850 --> 01:43:40,770
Of course he was.

1826
01:43:40,770 --> 01:43:46,470
They wouldn't give you a visa and not make you CIA from 55 to 62.

1827
01:43:46,910 --> 01:43:49,770
The fact he left in 62, that's not a coincidence.

1828
01:43:50,370 --> 01:43:51,570
That's when this shit hit the fan.

1829
01:43:51,930 --> 01:43:53,890
That's when we went from advisors to military.

1830
01:43:54,270 --> 01:43:55,650
And what do you think the bank was about then?

1831
01:43:55,910 --> 01:43:57,070
Just a nice-to-see job?

1832
01:43:57,370 --> 01:44:01,890
I think what happened is when he came back, they gave him a bank as a reward.

1833
01:44:02,170 --> 01:44:03,130
As the reward, right?

1834
01:44:03,510 --> 01:44:03,850
Yeah.

1835
01:44:04,050 --> 01:44:07,150
And, I mean, I'm assuming some money laundering for the CIA.

1836
01:44:07,370 --> 01:44:08,330
I have no idea.

1837
01:44:08,470 --> 01:44:09,090
I have no idea.

1838
01:44:09,090 --> 01:44:15,990
Maybe they just said, no, we'll just get you a, you know, the CIA shell companies helped Walt Disney set up Disney World.

1839
01:44:16,290 --> 01:44:18,250
I always knew something crazy had to happen.

1840
01:44:18,390 --> 01:44:18,630
Crazy.

1841
01:44:18,870 --> 01:44:25,210
You can't buy up like, you know, 20 square miles of anything without people smelling a problem.

1842
01:44:25,310 --> 01:44:27,070
And all of a sudden you just can't buy it, right?

1843
01:44:27,230 --> 01:44:30,650
And so he had Angleton and guys like that helping him buy it.

1844
01:44:31,150 --> 01:44:32,930
I mean, he had big time players.

1845
01:44:32,930 --> 01:44:38,770
And I imagine that some of the sales were not as pleasant as others because they said, look, here's the deal.

1846
01:44:39,090 --> 01:44:40,710
We're going to whack if you don't sell.

1847
01:44:41,210 --> 01:44:42,330
You're making this hard.

1848
01:44:42,990 --> 01:44:46,070
And Walt was a 33rd degree Mason,

1849
01:44:46,070 --> 01:44:48,950
and heaven only knows what the Masons are up to.

1850
01:44:50,050 --> 01:44:51,530
I've tried to go there.

1851
01:44:51,650 --> 01:44:52,830
It just makes no sense.

1852
01:44:53,010 --> 01:44:54,010
Disney's a rabbit hole.

1853
01:44:55,070 --> 01:44:56,450
Disney's a big rabbit hole.

1854
01:44:57,190 --> 01:44:59,990
The shit Disney puts out is a super rabbit hole.

1855
01:45:00,070 --> 01:45:02,690
They put out so much pedophilic crap.

1856
01:45:03,070 --> 01:45:06,070
And all that land is like the Vatican down there.

1857
01:45:06,130 --> 01:45:07,930
They have their own rules and laws and police.

1858
01:45:07,930 --> 01:45:10,090
They were allowed to have a nuclear reactor.

1859
01:45:10,230 --> 01:45:11,890
They were a sovereign state.

1860
01:45:12,370 --> 01:45:17,730
They let an alligator eat a kid, and nobody gave Disney a too hard on time there.

1861
01:45:17,790 --> 01:45:18,630
I didn't know that.

1862
01:45:18,810 --> 01:45:19,770
I didn't hear that story.

1863
01:45:19,770 --> 01:45:23,710
I shouldn't say it so flippantly, but at one of their campgrounds or playgrounds,

1864
01:45:23,710 --> 01:45:25,410
it's a tragic story.

1865
01:45:25,530 --> 01:45:29,470
A little kid went down by the water, and they lost track of her,

1866
01:45:29,630 --> 01:45:33,270
and the alligator came up onto the shore, grabbed her, and pulled her in.

1867
01:45:34,410 --> 01:45:34,530
Yeah.

1868
01:45:34,530 --> 01:45:41,570
Yeah, but it seemed like, you know, that happening on Disney property should have probably had different outcomes, I think.

1869
01:45:41,570 --> 01:45:54,290
Well, but, you know, like, I know when the Gulf of Mexico, the gates of hell opened up with event Deepwater Horizon, they had high-level meetings to talk about the problem.

1870
01:45:54,690 --> 01:45:59,650
I don't want to name where or by who, but let us just say in one of the biggest think tanks on the planet.

1871
01:46:00,170 --> 01:46:04,070
And I asked, you know, were they talking about the environmental damage?

1872
01:46:04,070 --> 01:46:07,270
She said, no, the whole thing is about protecting British petroleum.

1873
01:46:07,890 --> 01:46:09,150
That's all it was, right?

1874
01:46:09,210 --> 01:46:14,530
It wasn't about the fact that we had just literally opened the gates of hell into the Gulf of Mexico.

1875
01:46:14,990 --> 01:46:18,510
And then, oddly enough, we fixed it and it did go away, right?

1876
01:46:18,570 --> 01:46:23,950
So things that look like we've made irreparable disaster become history.

1877
01:46:24,170 --> 01:46:25,310
They just become old news.

1878
01:46:25,770 --> 01:46:25,870
Yeah.

1879
01:46:26,550 --> 01:46:28,650
How do you bomb Europe into oblivion?

1880
01:46:28,710 --> 01:46:29,750
How do they ever come back?

1881
01:46:29,810 --> 01:46:30,630
But they somehow did.

1882
01:46:30,630 --> 01:46:34,650
With a lot of our, I would think, financial aid.

1883
01:46:35,430 --> 01:46:36,850
Or we made money.

1884
01:46:37,230 --> 01:46:38,110
We made a ton of money.

1885
01:46:38,110 --> 01:46:42,190
Where we needed bases and where we needed to have a narrative.

1886
01:46:42,630 --> 01:46:44,750
That's why we became a super empire.

1887
01:46:45,590 --> 01:46:47,790
Because, you know, the Lend-Lease program,

1888
01:46:47,890 --> 01:46:51,710
I copy-edited Battle of Bretton Woods for Ben Steele.

1889
01:46:52,030 --> 01:46:53,470
I copy-edited it for him.

1890
01:46:54,170 --> 01:46:57,470
And it was really fun because I was exchanging the chapters back and forth

1891
01:46:57,470 --> 01:47:00,150
saying, boy, this Harry Dexter White guy, he's an enigma.

1892
01:47:00,150 --> 01:47:02,650
I haven't figured out where it's going with this guy.

1893
01:47:02,870 --> 01:47:05,050
Turns out he was a Soviet sympathizer.

1894
01:47:05,310 --> 01:47:08,710
But one of the things he talks about is the Lend-Lease program to the Brits.

1895
01:47:08,950 --> 01:47:10,890
Wasn't they were our best buddies?

1896
01:47:11,070 --> 01:47:14,450
We bent them over and gave them everything we had.

1897
01:47:15,370 --> 01:47:19,190
By the time they signed the Lend-Lease program,

1898
01:47:19,310 --> 01:47:22,470
they were guaranteed to come out of World War II neutered.

1899
01:47:22,890 --> 01:47:23,770
Not a superpower.

1900
01:47:24,270 --> 01:47:25,990
It was not out of the goodness of our heart.

1901
01:47:26,090 --> 01:47:26,970
We reamed them out.

1902
01:47:26,970 --> 01:47:31,970
Now, the real story is also if you read Stalin's war and American betrayal,

1903
01:47:32,750 --> 01:47:38,110
we gave 10 times or more arms to the Soviets than to the Brits.

1904
01:47:38,530 --> 01:47:44,570
And that's because Harry Hopkins, who was FDR's right-hand man, his chief of staff,

1905
01:47:44,890 --> 01:47:48,430
was a total Soviet, not a sympathetic, a complete Soviet spy.

1906
01:47:48,790 --> 01:47:52,690
And so Harry Hopkins made sure that everything we did was pro-Stalin.

1907
01:47:53,050 --> 01:47:53,490
Everything.

1908
01:47:53,830 --> 01:47:55,790
Where we landed in Normandy, everything.

1909
01:47:55,790 --> 01:47:58,270
Pearl Harbor, the Soviets knew it was coming.

1910
01:47:58,910 --> 01:48:01,210
They wanted us to take Japan off their flank,

1911
01:48:01,350 --> 01:48:05,270
so they made sure that we got into that battle with Japan.

1912
01:48:05,570 --> 01:48:07,330
Everything was pro-Soviet.

1913
01:48:07,490 --> 01:48:09,630
When the war was over, we kept fueling Soviet,

1914
01:48:09,790 --> 01:48:11,190
we kept giving Soviet shit.

1915
01:48:11,470 --> 01:48:16,170
We funded the rise of the post-war Soviet superpower.

1916
01:48:16,530 --> 01:48:17,690
Who won World War II?

1917
01:48:17,950 --> 01:48:21,290
Not the Americans, not the Europeans, not the Germans.

1918
01:48:21,570 --> 01:48:23,310
The Soviets, they won World War II.

1919
01:48:23,310 --> 01:48:25,110
Who beat the Germans? Separate question.

1920
01:48:25,110 --> 01:48:26,930
But the Soviets won World War II.

1921
01:48:27,030 --> 01:48:27,890
They got half of Europe.

1922
01:48:28,190 --> 01:48:28,750
What did we get?

1923
01:48:29,070 --> 01:48:30,030
What did anyone else get?

1924
01:48:30,250 --> 01:48:32,490
I mean, we could talk about what the point of World War II is.

1925
01:48:32,570 --> 01:48:34,570
I mean, there have been so many different takes in books.

1926
01:48:34,690 --> 01:48:37,310
I mean, was it to consolidate Europe, to then destroy it?

1927
01:48:37,410 --> 01:48:41,450
Was it to, you know, we dismantled the Soviet Union and the USSR?

1928
01:48:41,830 --> 01:48:45,330
Was it to kind of build them up, to take them down and concentrate power there?

1929
01:48:45,510 --> 01:48:46,250
So much.

1930
01:48:46,470 --> 01:48:47,810
We can get into the Bolsheviks.

1931
01:48:48,030 --> 01:48:51,870
I mean, there's just, here's a picture of your grandfather.

1932
01:48:52,470 --> 01:48:54,230
Yeah, look at that guy behind him.

1933
01:48:55,110 --> 01:49:03,430
here. Those guys are sitting in the Huey. Those are American soldiers. Yeah. And so we're never

1934
01:49:03,430 --> 01:49:07,450
told the truth about history. We're never told the truth. It's all lies. And there's so much we

1935
01:49:07,450 --> 01:49:11,470
don't even have any amount packed. I read your entire year interview. It's awesome as usual.

1936
01:49:11,850 --> 01:49:15,350
One way, you know, you look at the different sections and I don't want to spend a lot of time

1937
01:49:15,350 --> 01:49:21,250
on it. I look at your investing and just find it so amazing that you have all these positions and

1938
01:49:21,250 --> 01:49:24,610
you manage them and I think you know there was a day where I dreamed about

1939
01:49:24,610 --> 01:49:29,650
being an investment banker and a money manager and all these things and this to

1940
01:49:29,650 --> 01:49:32,530
me looks like a headache man it's so boring and in so many different

1941
01:49:32,530 --> 01:49:35,710
positions I don't even comment on this it's so interesting to me because I try

1942
01:49:35,710 --> 01:49:39,010
to read it all very similar though they're all very similar positions they

1943
01:49:39,010 --> 01:49:44,530
are but it's you know to me it's an exercise in restraint in a lot of ways

1944
01:49:44,530 --> 01:49:50,230
oh it's a total exercise in restraint yeah so I find it fascinating I check in

1945
01:49:50,230 --> 01:49:51,050
with it every year.

1946
01:49:51,310 --> 01:49:52,190
You know, I try to see how it moved.

1947
01:49:52,190 --> 01:49:55,390
Did you happen to catch the numbers on those gains?

1948
01:49:55,630 --> 01:49:57,150
Well, so that was the next thing I was going to say.

1949
01:49:57,390 --> 01:49:59,770
You've been exercising amazing humility.

1950
01:50:00,850 --> 01:50:06,390
You're not, I mean, metals and gold and platinum and silver, booming years.

1951
01:50:06,730 --> 01:50:11,770
I wouldn't say that you've been a screaming gold bug fanatic, but you've been a prudent

1952
01:50:11,770 --> 01:50:17,530
investor and a wise investor, and I think you've always been sort of into gold and metals.

1953
01:50:17,530 --> 01:50:20,330
So to not be going around bragging and boasting.

1954
01:50:21,350 --> 01:50:23,410
Well, I'm a little nervous.

1955
01:50:23,750 --> 01:50:24,770
It's a karmic thing.

1956
01:50:25,250 --> 01:50:31,570
I was feeling very cocky when silver ran up to 49 back in around 2013.

1957
01:50:32,390 --> 01:50:33,530
And I was really exuberant.

1958
01:50:34,370 --> 01:50:36,850
And then I got to watch it go all the way back down.

1959
01:50:36,930 --> 01:50:39,190
And I said, okay, Dave, you deserve that one.

1960
01:50:39,610 --> 01:50:43,030
And so things have worked well.

1961
01:50:43,150 --> 01:50:46,070
Last year I made a fortune by my standards.

1962
01:50:46,070 --> 01:50:52,490
And this year, to calibrate you, this year I am going to brag here.

1963
01:50:52,990 --> 01:50:56,910
This year I am up 16% year to date.

1964
01:50:57,290 --> 01:51:00,230
Well, you know, and look, I mean, obviously there could be corrections.

1965
01:51:00,590 --> 01:51:01,510
None of this is financial.

1966
01:51:01,770 --> 01:51:03,090
I could give it all back.

1967
01:51:03,230 --> 01:51:05,970
I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit 500.

1968
01:51:06,000 --> 01:51:10,960
Gold hit 20 grand. I mean, the way the world is going. None of these things would shock me.

1969
01:51:11,240 --> 01:51:16,260
Well, let me ask you this question. Gold and silver are one of two things right now. It seems

1970
01:51:16,260 --> 01:51:21,980
to me it's finery. Either they are telling us something is breaking in the system. The COMEX,

1971
01:51:22,100 --> 01:51:26,440
you name it, there's all these stories, but something is breaking. And the demand for gold

1972
01:51:26,440 --> 01:51:32,820
is huge and it's big money demanding the gold. Or it's a mania and it's all going to be given back.

1973
01:51:32,820 --> 01:51:34,340
Where do you comment on this?

1974
01:51:34,640 --> 01:51:36,440
I don't think it's a rational exuberance.

1975
01:51:36,640 --> 01:51:36,940
Okay.

1976
01:51:37,120 --> 01:51:39,300
I think it's a debasement trade in a lot of ways.

1977
01:51:39,480 --> 01:51:40,560
I think it's the debasement trade.

1978
01:51:40,680 --> 01:51:41,720
They even, they tout it.

1979
01:51:41,800 --> 01:51:42,620
They promote it.

1980
01:51:43,100 --> 01:51:44,440
Well, that's what worries me, though.

1981
01:51:44,480 --> 01:51:49,480
That worries me not in terms of, well, I think it's, they want, they'd rather have it melt

1982
01:51:49,480 --> 01:51:50,880
up and melt away the debt.

1983
01:51:51,220 --> 01:51:54,380
We could talk about valuations being oversampt, but you can inflate away debt.

1984
01:51:54,480 --> 01:51:56,620
You can liquefy markets.

1985
01:51:56,620 --> 01:52:01,600
You can extend credit if people believe in the shared consciousness of the observed currency,

1986
01:52:01,600 --> 01:52:05,920
and they can keep printing money, which I think all that's in their interest.

1987
01:52:05,920 --> 01:52:09,720
I'm not sure you can inflate away debt easily.

1988
01:52:09,960 --> 01:52:10,580
It's not easy.

1989
01:52:10,860 --> 01:52:15,040
You've got either a debt forgiveness, a debt jubilee, the inflation.

1990
01:52:15,360 --> 01:52:16,760
There's only so many ways you can go.

1991
01:52:17,180 --> 01:52:20,240
Well, so, for example, Weimar Germany didn't inflate away their debt.

1992
01:52:20,500 --> 01:52:22,000
People always cite Weimar Germany.

1993
01:52:22,200 --> 01:52:23,540
They didn't inflate away their debt.

1994
01:52:23,840 --> 01:52:25,400
The inflation hurt the public.

1995
01:52:25,860 --> 01:52:28,020
Their debt remained as a country.

1996
01:52:28,300 --> 01:52:29,960
Right, and then that gets bought and sold,

1997
01:52:29,960 --> 01:52:32,180
and so there's levels above the country.

1998
01:52:32,560 --> 01:52:32,980
Right.

1999
01:52:33,100 --> 01:52:35,060
So what happens is we ended up in World War II.

2000
01:52:35,480 --> 01:52:38,160
In the end, I believe the debt goes away

2001
01:52:38,160 --> 01:52:40,900
because of what is more of a deflationary result

2002
01:52:40,900 --> 01:52:42,480
where there's just a big default.

2003
01:52:43,040 --> 01:52:43,180
Yeah.

2004
01:52:43,280 --> 01:52:44,560
So I think that could happen.

2005
01:52:45,040 --> 01:52:46,660
I think at some point,

2006
01:52:47,000 --> 01:52:49,960
I do think that there is a deflationary event

2007
01:52:49,960 --> 01:52:52,160
and possibly a great taking or takening.

2008
01:52:53,780 --> 01:52:54,220
Takening.

2009
01:52:54,320 --> 01:52:56,120
I like the EN on the end of those words.

2010
01:52:56,380 --> 01:52:57,360
Havening, takening.

2011
01:52:57,360 --> 01:53:00,260
I certainly could imagine that.

2012
01:53:00,580 --> 01:53:06,640
Again, I do not believe that you can say the state would ever restrain itself from doing something awful to you.

2013
01:53:07,080 --> 01:53:09,960
They might do it on purpose and make it worse and worse so you beg.

2014
01:53:09,960 --> 01:53:12,560
Well, someone's got to shake the etch-a-sketch.

2015
01:53:14,180 --> 01:53:20,340
Sorkin's book, he's somewhat critical of the Fed poking the bubble.

2016
01:53:20,340 --> 01:53:24,580
And I'm thinking, dude, the Fed were the ones saying, look, this is nutty.

2017
01:53:25,260 --> 01:53:26,880
We've got to do something.

2018
01:53:26,880 --> 01:53:31,980
The Federal Reserve, they were actually fairly bearish saying this is a frigging problem.

2019
01:53:32,100 --> 01:53:35,140
Now they cranked down the rates and they fueled it earlier.

2020
01:53:35,240 --> 01:53:36,540
They always forget about that part.

2021
01:53:36,820 --> 01:53:42,340
There was a huge credit bubble in the 20s, a huge credit bubble, and no one knew what to do about it.

2022
01:53:42,600 --> 01:53:47,720
And the guys who were euphoric were begging the Fed not to blow it.

2023
01:53:48,160 --> 01:53:52,400
Now, if you're euphoric because everything's really stable and rock solid,

2024
01:53:52,500 --> 01:53:55,320
you don't worry about someone pricking the bubble because there's no bubble to prick.

2025
01:53:55,320 --> 01:53:56,820
And they were worried about it.

2026
01:53:56,820 --> 01:53:59,220
They wanted the party like crazy.

2027
01:53:59,360 --> 01:54:04,120
I think the Fed right now is terrified of raising rates, of lowering rates.

2028
01:54:04,280 --> 01:54:09,060
And I think they're terrified of lowering rates because I think they're terrified that the bond market will defy them.

2029
01:54:09,480 --> 01:54:15,940
The rates will go up, not down, which is the bond market saying, finally, we're back in the game.

2030
01:54:15,940 --> 01:54:23,600
And since you're dropping rates, inflation is a serious risk, and therefore we're going to demand a higher rate of return for those treasuries.

2031
01:54:23,920 --> 01:54:26,520
For many decades, they have not demanded.

2032
01:54:26,520 --> 01:54:33,760
And I think the Fed's huge fear, I'm now applying an emotional state to them that I have no data.

2033
01:54:33,900 --> 01:54:37,380
It's just, if I were in charge of the Fed, this is what I'd be afraid of,

2034
01:54:37,660 --> 01:54:41,340
is that the world would discover that I've got no weapons left.

2035
01:54:41,540 --> 01:54:47,780
So if they try to do something and it fails, then this whole Fed omnipotent story is over.

2036
01:54:48,020 --> 01:54:49,800
And then the shit will hit the fan.

2037
01:54:50,040 --> 01:54:52,300
Yeah, well, I think they want to phase out the Fed.

2038
01:54:52,440 --> 01:54:52,840
Who's that?

2039
01:54:53,120 --> 01:54:54,540
I think the government.

2040
01:54:54,540 --> 01:54:57,600
I think they want to use the money printers, the people that own the Fed.

2041
01:54:57,600 --> 01:55:00,940
I think eventually the banks somehow want to get rid of the Fed?

2042
01:55:01,140 --> 01:55:02,180
Aren't they the Fed?

2043
01:55:02,240 --> 01:55:21,758
Well or the powers that own the banks that don like that don care about the banks P per se but they will own the future world as well I think want to move to an algorithmic issuance quote unquote of a CBDC The algorithm is not so much immutable it controllable and they can change things and

2044
01:55:21,758 --> 01:55:24,338
use the credit score and combine databases.

2045
01:55:24,638 --> 01:55:30,758
I think they want everything to be tokenized and they want to take humans out of it, quote

2046
01:55:30,758 --> 01:55:32,578
unquote, to help sell the story.

2047
01:55:32,698 --> 01:55:34,658
Like, why should people control the money?

2048
01:55:34,758 --> 01:55:36,178
Why should the Fed be political?

2049
01:55:36,178 --> 01:55:37,318
It is political.

2050
01:55:37,518 --> 01:55:42,098
We should solve it with this apolitical solution that's inherently political.

2051
01:55:42,618 --> 01:55:47,858
One of the theories I had on Trump hammering Powell, and it was some time back.

2052
01:55:48,638 --> 01:55:49,218
It's an act.

2053
01:55:49,398 --> 01:55:57,538
In fact, I think Trump wanted to burst the bubble so that it would tank and then it would be recovering when he needed it.

2054
01:55:57,658 --> 01:56:01,058
Sort of like Reagan, to imitate a Reagan administration, right?

2055
01:56:01,058 --> 01:56:11,298
And somehow it stayed elevated, and I even am willing to go so far as to say maybe they kept it floating so that they could tank it when it would really damage the guy, right?

2056
01:56:11,518 --> 01:56:17,698
But by hammering Powell to lower rates, if you're Powell, you can't do it, right?

2057
01:56:17,738 --> 01:56:22,578
If you're Powell, you can't say, Alf Donald, if you really wanted to lower rates, you'd say, shut the fuck up.

2058
01:56:22,618 --> 01:56:25,738
You're making it politically impossible for us to lower the rates.

2059
01:56:25,738 --> 01:56:28,738
And I think that might have been the whole kayfabe.

2060
01:56:28,838 --> 01:56:29,958
But it gives you a foil.

2061
01:56:29,958 --> 01:56:32,398
If you're Trump and the economy's not doing great, you can say-

2062
01:56:32,398 --> 01:56:34,078
He gets to blame the Fed.

2063
01:56:34,278 --> 01:56:34,658
Blame the Fed.

2064
01:56:34,718 --> 01:56:36,258
Can you take this one for the team?

2065
01:56:36,578 --> 01:56:36,838
Right.

2066
01:56:37,058 --> 01:56:39,278
So I think that whole thing might have been a kayfabe.

2067
01:56:40,018 --> 01:56:46,938
And he gets to go down as the most independent-minded Fed chairman for playing the game.

2068
01:56:47,538 --> 01:56:53,418
And he looks like a hero and more like Vlocker than like Greenspan or Bernanke.

2069
01:56:54,158 --> 01:56:55,238
It's all narrative.

2070
01:56:55,438 --> 01:56:55,878
It's all-

2071
01:56:55,878 --> 01:56:58,558
But the fact that it hasn't tanked yet is a problem.

2072
01:56:58,558 --> 01:57:00,598
because we got midterms coming.

2073
01:57:00,758 --> 01:57:02,658
We got national elections coming.

2074
01:57:02,918 --> 01:57:06,038
They do not want to be in the Great Depression 2.0.

2075
01:57:06,438 --> 01:57:08,578
Well, no, I don't agree with you necessarily.

2076
01:57:08,578 --> 01:57:09,258
In 2027.

2077
01:57:09,898 --> 01:57:12,978
Part of the narrative is the Trump supporters are thinking

2078
01:57:12,978 --> 01:57:14,238
if Trump is elected,

2079
01:57:14,478 --> 01:57:16,538
of course he would want the first two years

2080
01:57:16,538 --> 01:57:17,858
to be a great economic boom.

2081
01:57:18,298 --> 01:57:20,438
Of course he would want Bitcoin price to rise.

2082
01:57:20,538 --> 01:57:22,278
Of course he'd want all these things.

2083
01:57:22,918 --> 01:57:25,178
You think he and hope he wants to do these things,

2084
01:57:25,298 --> 01:57:27,298
but he's there to make you hope for them

2085
01:57:27,298 --> 01:57:29,978
and not deliver on those things, but give other things.

2086
01:57:30,258 --> 01:57:31,338
Could be. I don't know.

2087
01:57:31,738 --> 01:57:33,618
I don't even know what to make of Trump.

2088
01:57:33,738 --> 01:57:35,798
I can tell you why he's a complete wacko.

2089
01:57:35,878 --> 01:57:38,418
I can tell you why he's playing five-dimensional chess.

2090
01:57:38,638 --> 01:57:40,018
If you're going to do the great taking,

2091
01:57:40,498 --> 01:57:43,098
you have to do it during the Trump regime or right regime

2092
01:57:43,098 --> 01:57:45,098
and not during a left regime.

2093
01:57:45,278 --> 01:57:45,798
Why is that?

2094
01:57:45,998 --> 01:57:47,138
Because the guns would come out.

2095
01:57:47,498 --> 01:57:49,658
So it's the way the COVID lockdowns had come on.

2096
01:57:49,658 --> 01:57:52,118
You want the MAGA guys to not be armed.

2097
01:57:52,118 --> 01:57:56,798
The COVID lockdowns and the vaccine rush of vaccines

2098
01:57:56,798 --> 01:57:59,098
that were already created by the military decades ago

2099
01:57:59,098 --> 01:58:01,098
could only come out under the Trump regime.

2100
01:58:01,398 --> 01:58:04,938
So you're just like, it's like jujitsu.

2101
01:58:05,438 --> 01:58:05,578
Right.

2102
01:58:05,878 --> 01:58:08,098
You don't have to convince the left to do some things.

2103
01:58:08,138 --> 01:58:09,778
You have to convince the right to do that thing

2104
01:58:09,778 --> 01:58:10,578
and then vice versa.

2105
01:58:10,578 --> 01:58:12,938
But you can't use the right to convince the right.

2106
01:58:13,018 --> 01:58:15,578
You have to use the left to put the right in a situation

2107
01:58:15,578 --> 01:58:17,518
where of course we want lockdown.

2108
01:58:17,818 --> 01:58:22,218
You remember that online meme

2109
01:58:22,218 --> 01:58:24,398
where someone spread the word

2110
01:58:24,398 --> 01:58:28,538
that women could show their independence by wetting their pants.

2111
01:58:28,658 --> 01:58:31,598
There was a meme out there that said women could show their independence

2112
01:58:31,598 --> 01:58:33,298
by pissing in their pants.

2113
01:58:33,298 --> 01:58:37,298
And people started posting pictures of them having pissed in their pants.

2114
01:58:38,258 --> 01:58:43,298
I'm going, this is so, this is, like, did you see Rudy Havenstein's

2115
01:58:44,018 --> 01:58:48,438
Erica Kirk meme where he says, he says,

2116
01:58:48,578 --> 01:58:51,698
I worry my wife would get remarried right away,

2117
01:58:51,698 --> 01:58:54,998
but I never thought that pyrotechnics would be involved, right?

2118
01:58:55,098 --> 01:58:58,098
He got 300,000 likes on that.

2119
01:58:58,618 --> 01:59:05,458
That triggered a wave of Erica Kirkbeams that was absolutely relentless for about a week.

2120
01:59:06,038 --> 01:59:11,718
And so social media has this unbelievable ability to warp our brains.

2121
01:59:12,078 --> 01:59:31,736
I mean it really And this is the problem I having I don know what I can talk about in a way that I remotely qualified So when the left was in charge I spent huge amounts of ink explaining all the stupid things all the wokey shit all the transgender shit

2122
01:59:32,096 --> 01:59:36,216
It was really clear that there was stupid shit happening and it was good fodder.

2123
01:59:36,356 --> 01:59:42,276
It was good to talk about. All the people getting fired for not using pronouns correctly, you know, things like that.

2124
01:59:42,276 --> 01:59:44,616
and as I said

2125
01:59:44,616 --> 01:59:48,556
when I was young it was cool to wear bell bottoms

2126
01:59:48,556 --> 01:59:50,656
this generation was cool to cut off your dicks

2127
01:59:50,656 --> 01:59:52,356
so that was easy

2128
01:59:52,356 --> 01:59:55,216
that was low lying fruit

2129
01:59:55,216 --> 01:59:57,916
I don't know what the low lying fruit is now

2130
01:59:57,916 --> 02:00:00,016
and it could be I'm just biased to the right

2131
02:00:00,016 --> 02:00:01,956
and now the stupid stuff is theirs

2132
02:00:01,956 --> 02:00:04,316
but it just isn't even making sense

2133
02:00:04,316 --> 02:00:07,176
yeah it's reached error 404

2134
02:00:07,176 --> 02:00:08,036
it's overload

2135
02:00:08,036 --> 02:00:09,236
that's right

2136
02:00:09,236 --> 02:00:14,696
And error 404 was me potentially not putting up a year in review.

2137
02:00:14,976 --> 02:00:16,496
I didn't think I was going to write one.

2138
02:00:16,776 --> 02:00:21,556
There's not a single thread line that makes sense, is cohesive, keeps going.

2139
02:00:22,036 --> 02:00:24,196
Everything takes you to everything else.

2140
02:00:24,496 --> 02:00:25,556
Half of it's more of a tweak.

2141
02:00:25,556 --> 02:00:26,416
And it changes.

2142
02:00:26,856 --> 02:00:27,516
It changes.

2143
02:00:28,136 --> 02:00:30,316
And it changes so you don't even know it's true.

2144
02:00:30,876 --> 02:00:31,156
Right.

2145
02:00:31,156 --> 02:00:37,656
You don't even, your lying eyes, like not knowing if Andrew Ross Sarkin actually read the audio.

2146
02:00:37,816 --> 02:00:39,116
I can't tell.

2147
02:00:39,236 --> 02:00:42,096
But there's shit in it that tells me if he read it, he's an idiot.

2148
02:00:42,316 --> 02:00:43,376
But I'm not sure he read it.

2149
02:00:43,656 --> 02:00:44,876
Yeah, I know what you mean.

2150
02:00:44,876 --> 02:00:45,736
That's a trivial one.

2151
02:00:45,756 --> 02:00:46,636
That's a trivial one.

2152
02:00:46,856 --> 02:00:49,696
But how are we going to know if Putin gives a speech saying,

2153
02:00:49,836 --> 02:00:51,176
if you do this, we're going to do this?

2154
02:00:51,196 --> 02:00:52,956
How do we know it's even remotely true?

2155
02:00:53,296 --> 02:00:53,936
You don't.

2156
02:00:54,156 --> 02:00:56,716
But they're going to make the shit, and they're going to tell us it's true.

2157
02:00:56,716 --> 02:01:01,896
The whole ICE thing, we have no idea what's going on in the streets, right?

2158
02:01:02,056 --> 02:01:03,576
I don't know what ICE is really doing.

2159
02:01:03,856 --> 02:01:07,996
I do know that if you've got battles in the streets between ICE and protesters,

2160
02:01:07,996 --> 02:01:13,236
that it's guaranteed at some point someone's going to get shot or run over or hurt or killed or whatever.

2161
02:01:13,436 --> 02:01:13,876
Guaranteed.

2162
02:01:14,176 --> 02:01:17,196
That is exactly what the anti-ICE guys want.

2163
02:01:17,476 --> 02:01:18,856
They want the martyrs.

2164
02:01:18,856 --> 02:01:20,696
But is it also what the ICE guys want?

2165
02:01:20,936 --> 02:01:21,776
I don't know.

2166
02:01:21,776 --> 02:01:22,336
Or the rulers of ICE.

2167
02:01:23,416 --> 02:01:24,796
I don't know.

2168
02:01:24,816 --> 02:01:25,596
I think they do.

2169
02:01:26,076 --> 02:01:27,216
And I think that even...

2170
02:01:27,436 --> 02:01:29,996
And I think it's not even they want one and they have none.

2171
02:01:30,356 --> 02:01:35,956
They want a consistent flow of it so that they can pick which one they want to put in front of us at the right time.

2172
02:01:35,956 --> 02:01:39,556
Well, I was convinced Ashley Babbitt didn't get shot.

2173
02:01:39,876 --> 02:01:40,776
And I made the case.

2174
02:01:40,856 --> 02:01:43,996
I showed it to some very smart people, and they said, I see your point, but.

2175
02:01:44,336 --> 02:01:48,376
And so I pulled back in the story, and so I wrote it, but I kind of said, here's some links.

2176
02:01:48,476 --> 02:01:50,156
Make up your own goddamn mind, right?

2177
02:01:50,216 --> 02:01:55,736
But I read through not only links questioning it and showing stuff that made me give me pause,

2178
02:01:56,096 --> 02:02:01,516
but I read thousands of comments where people were adding interpretation and stuff like that.

2179
02:02:01,536 --> 02:02:04,236
And I watched tons of videos and stuff like that.

2180
02:02:04,236 --> 02:02:06,236
And I became convinced that she didn't get shot.

2181
02:02:06,436 --> 02:02:11,316
And then I pulled back because I couldn't sell it to people who were a friendly audience.

2182
02:02:11,416 --> 02:02:14,156
And they understood what my point was, but they just weren't sure.

2183
02:02:14,236 --> 02:02:16,356
And I said, okay, don't go over your skis that far.

2184
02:02:16,476 --> 02:02:19,716
So it's out there, but it's out there in sort of an abbreviated form.

2185
02:02:20,176 --> 02:02:27,296
Last year, 2025, Cheryl Atkinson sat there with two federal agents and went through the same tapes and said,

2186
02:02:27,296 --> 02:02:31,296
this is wrong, this is wrong, this is wrong, this is wrong.

2187
02:02:31,296 --> 02:02:36,876
So I had a quick communication with Cheryl, a couple of exchanges, which I told her things that were also wrong.

2188
02:02:37,236 --> 02:02:40,576
But the journalist doesn't want to hear that because they've already made the case.

2189
02:02:40,716 --> 02:02:45,536
But I was exonerated like three or four years later when Cheryl got on it and said,

2190
02:02:45,676 --> 02:02:49,456
okay, all these federal agents say none of these things make sense.

2191
02:02:49,976 --> 02:02:53,436
Reading 17 years of year in review, here's the entertaining part.

2192
02:02:53,696 --> 02:02:57,636
I never, I didn't find a chapter that made me cringe.

2193
02:02:57,736 --> 02:03:01,276
I didn't find a chapter where I said, oh, fuck, I'd love to have not written that one.

2194
02:03:01,296 --> 02:03:04,876
The closest I got was a couple years ago,

2195
02:03:04,876 --> 02:03:06,896
it looked like we were gonna have an energy crisis.

2196
02:03:06,896 --> 02:03:08,136
I built the case.

2197
02:03:08,136 --> 02:03:09,396
You can build the case for anything.

2198
02:03:09,396 --> 02:03:10,736
And then we just didn't have it.

2199
02:03:10,736 --> 02:03:12,376
It's not a terrible fuck up,

2200
02:03:12,376 --> 02:03:15,576
but that was about as far over my skis as I got

2201
02:03:15,576 --> 02:03:16,936
and face planted.

2202
02:03:16,936 --> 02:03:19,276
Yeah, I mean, it's an astonishing record.

2203
02:03:19,276 --> 02:03:31,454
I thought it was interesting how you brought out in 2025 lots of the quotes from 2015 2015 Yeah yeah That showed that in 2015 the markets were insane

2204
02:03:31,914 --> 02:03:33,614
And you read those quotes.

2205
02:03:33,934 --> 02:03:37,854
Those are from legends of Wall Street saying, we are so fucked again.

2206
02:03:38,094 --> 02:03:38,994
How did this happen?

2207
02:03:39,594 --> 02:03:44,014
Greenspan, Howard Marks, Druckenmiller.

2208
02:03:44,014 --> 02:03:46,774
These guys saying, how did we end up in this big bubble?

2209
02:03:46,954 --> 02:03:48,094
We're looking into the abyss.

2210
02:03:48,314 --> 02:03:49,354
It happened again.

2211
02:03:49,354 --> 02:03:50,434
How did we do this?

2212
02:03:50,814 --> 02:03:54,034
And then you look at what happened over the next 10 years, the markets went straight up.

2213
02:03:54,254 --> 02:03:58,994
So the question I ask is, were they wrong or are we super fucked?

2214
02:03:59,234 --> 02:04:00,254
And I think we're super fucked.

2215
02:04:00,474 --> 02:04:01,754
Yeah, they definitely were correct.

2216
02:04:01,974 --> 02:04:02,854
I think they were correct down the road.

2217
02:04:03,174 --> 02:04:03,394
Right.

2218
02:04:03,474 --> 02:04:05,474
So the can now is so far down the road.

2219
02:04:05,534 --> 02:04:06,754
The problem is valuations.

2220
02:04:06,894 --> 02:04:10,654
It's like you're at 35,000 feet and your engines are on fire.

2221
02:04:11,054 --> 02:04:13,274
And they took it to 45,000 feet.

2222
02:04:13,394 --> 02:04:15,194
That doesn't solve the problem.

2223
02:04:15,194 --> 02:04:22,854
As someone said, supposedly one of the airplane manuals says you will have enough gas to get to the crash site.

2224
02:04:25,054 --> 02:04:26,374
I love that phrase.

2225
02:04:26,614 --> 02:04:27,534
We'll go out there.

2226
02:04:27,894 --> 02:04:29,714
So there's going to be a coming.

2227
02:04:29,914 --> 02:04:31,834
There's going to be a come to Jesus.

2228
02:04:32,214 --> 02:04:32,914
I'm positive.

2229
02:04:33,454 --> 02:04:33,834
Positive.

2230
02:04:34,274 --> 02:04:35,114
Just don't know when.

2231
02:04:35,734 --> 02:04:36,134
We'll see.

2232
02:04:36,394 --> 02:04:37,114
No one knows when.

2233
02:04:37,634 --> 02:04:39,914
I'll read you quoting me.

2234
02:04:40,294 --> 02:04:40,554
You.

2235
02:04:40,974 --> 02:04:41,534
I'm going to quote you.

2236
02:04:41,534 --> 02:04:41,874
Oh, yeah.

2237
02:04:41,934 --> 02:04:42,794
I remember this one.

2238
02:04:42,794 --> 02:04:43,814
Talking about you.

2239
02:04:44,234 --> 02:04:45,174
I was thrilled to see this.

2240
02:04:45,254 --> 02:04:47,734
Dave doesn't care if he comes across as an asshole.

2241
02:04:47,894 --> 02:04:48,574
He really doesn't.

2242
02:04:48,654 --> 02:04:50,134
He's just trying to get it right.

2243
02:04:51,634 --> 02:04:52,154
Thank you.

2244
02:04:52,154 --> 02:04:53,034
That was a great quote.

2245
02:04:53,334 --> 02:04:55,714
You know what I really love are quotes that hammer me.

2246
02:04:55,994 --> 02:04:57,994
What I really found was someone really hammers me.

2247
02:04:58,054 --> 02:05:02,794
Because I can always find a quote of someone who takes the exact, so juxtaposing the two.

2248
02:05:02,794 --> 02:05:04,954
So I had one where someone really hammered me.

2249
02:05:05,054 --> 02:05:07,074
And then right below it, it was Stephen Roach's quote.

2250
02:05:07,174 --> 02:05:08,094
It was a couple years ago.

2251
02:05:08,714 --> 02:05:10,034
Stephen Roach's quote that said,

2252
02:05:10,034 --> 02:05:14,834
I know of no one more qualified than you to bring honor back to economic.

2253
02:05:16,254 --> 02:05:22,474
This year I had a quote from Stockman, which I couldn't believe, where David Stockman said,

2254
02:05:22,474 --> 02:05:26,694
he said, the smartest economist at Cornell was some guy named Lowy.

2255
02:05:27,154 --> 02:05:30,234
And he says, until I met this guy, Collabon, on Twitter.

2256
02:05:30,554 --> 02:05:32,274
And I've gone, oh, I can use that.

2257
02:05:32,454 --> 02:05:33,134
I can use that.

2258
02:05:33,454 --> 02:05:38,594
I want to ask you a question after we go offline, one brief one, about one of your guests.

2259
02:05:38,594 --> 02:05:39,494
about one of your guests.

2260
02:05:39,574 --> 02:05:40,414
I don't want to do it online.

2261
02:05:40,854 --> 02:05:41,114
Okay.

2262
02:05:41,374 --> 02:05:42,214
I'll hang tight.

2263
02:05:42,334 --> 02:05:43,334
Thank you as always, David.

2264
02:05:43,614 --> 02:05:45,554
Well, actually, I'll leave it to you for any parting words

2265
02:05:45,554 --> 02:05:47,354
and let people know where they can find you and your work.

2266
02:05:47,494 --> 02:05:48,314
Just be careful.

2267
02:05:48,594 --> 02:05:49,814
Just be careful out there.

2268
02:05:49,914 --> 02:05:51,174
I think we're in very...

2269
02:05:51,174 --> 02:05:52,274
And I can't tell you when.

2270
02:05:52,634 --> 02:05:54,434
If people say too early is wrong,

2271
02:05:54,514 --> 02:05:57,034
I go, not if you're going to get your head blown off.

2272
02:05:57,254 --> 02:06:00,534
Charlie Kirk, if he quit speaking five years ago,

2273
02:06:00,574 --> 02:06:01,614
he'd still be alive.

2274
02:06:01,954 --> 02:06:02,274
Yeah.

2275
02:06:02,614 --> 02:06:02,894
Right?

2276
02:06:03,114 --> 02:06:04,194
That wouldn't be too early.

2277
02:06:04,574 --> 02:06:07,734
So if the stop clock is right and your house blows up,

2278
02:06:07,734 --> 02:06:10,194
you're going to wish you'd paid attention to what time it was.

2279
02:06:10,674 --> 02:06:15,094
And so I'm confident that we are in for a very rough time.

2280
02:06:15,274 --> 02:06:17,714
And it's not like society is emotionally ready for it.

2281
02:06:17,754 --> 02:06:18,874
We are all pissed off.

2282
02:06:19,014 --> 02:06:21,454
So it's going to be real fourth turning crap when it comes.

2283
02:06:21,834 --> 02:06:23,294
So plan accordingly, right?

2284
02:06:23,834 --> 02:06:24,054
Yeah.

2285
02:06:24,114 --> 02:06:27,354
And you can't have money at the bottom if you don't have cash at the top.

2286
02:06:27,354 --> 02:06:30,574
You got to go to cash at the top, and that's the hardest thing to do.

2287
02:06:30,954 --> 02:06:31,054
Yeah.

2288
02:06:31,214 --> 02:06:33,094
You talk about how we're in the complacency bubble,

2289
02:06:33,274 --> 02:06:35,814
and it's really hard for people to switch gears and FOMO.

2290
02:06:36,314 --> 02:06:36,714
FOMO.

2291
02:06:36,714 --> 02:06:39,434
45 years of nothing but up.

2292
02:06:39,874 --> 02:06:41,754
45 years of nothing but up.

2293
02:06:41,974 --> 02:06:44,274
My papi used to always say, just keep your head on a swivel.

2294
02:06:44,794 --> 02:06:45,394
Keep your head in the game.

2295
02:06:45,394 --> 02:06:47,074
All right, Dave, it's been awesome as usual.

2296
02:07:06,714 --> 02:07:11,814
Share this episode with your friends, family, or anyone curious about Bitcoin.

2297
02:07:12,234 --> 02:07:14,294
And let's keep growing this community together.

2298
02:07:14,574 --> 02:07:18,074
Stay curious, keep stacking, and I'll catch you in the next one.