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All right, welcome back, folks.

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Happy New Year.

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This is the first episode in the new year.

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And just like I think it's already tradition, Nico,

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I have to have you on for the yearly review report

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that you guys put out.

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Digital Mining Solutions.

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You guys have been doing this for a couple years now.

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We did it for the last one last year,

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and we want to do it for this one this year.

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If you want to read it before you start the interview, guys,

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have a look at the show notes.

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I'm sure we will link to the yearly report down there.

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Nico, give people, for all those who don't know you yet,

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a very, very brief introduction,

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what you guys focus on while you write the report.

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Go.

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HashrateUp, hardware sales, advisory, hosting, and site brokerage.

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Find new and use ASIC deals through the website

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and the Telegram channel below.

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Make smarter decisions with HashrateUp.

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Sure.

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Yeah.

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So Nico Smith, founder of Digital Mining Solutions,

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We offer different services or solutions to businesses in the mining space.

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So we do a lot of market intelligence, writing articles, reports,

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like the one we're going to discuss today,

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but also provide masterclasses for companies, investors, et cetera.

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And then we focus a lot on consulting.

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So we provide advice about business strategies, business models,

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optimize pitch decks for companies that are raising funds,

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benchmark projects and assess investment opportunities.

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So that's what we do in a nutshell.

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And this year is the third year in a row that we publish the annual review,

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looking back at what happened last year and then also providing a bit of an outlook.

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And just like last year, I had a co-writer, Cindy Fang of Bitcoin Mining Stocks.

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And the report is freely available for everybody because it got sponsored by NICE.

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So I think that sets this report apart as well because it's a very dense report for which normally you have to have a premium subscription somewhere or at least pay for it.

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So it's freely available and I think there's a lot of signal, a lot of alpha in the report.

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So I suggest I would recommend everybody to download it.

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I can confirm all of the above.

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I think so as well.

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So we are recording at 931313 and our hash price looks like this.

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My eyes do not deceive me as they often do these days.

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We're going to see a minus 1.66 difficulty adjustment.

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We can look at that just now.

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We are nearly at the epoch and we are right around that $39 per petahash per day level.

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now interestingly difficulty let's have a look at that i find that very interesting i don't know

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maybe you recall and maybe we can use this as a um entry to the conversation nico when was the

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last time that we saw one two three basically stagnating and then another difficulty adjustment

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downward it's been a while i think the last time three in a row was in 24 so not too long ago but

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But four in a row was, I believe, in 21 or something.

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It's been a while, at least.

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It obviously has to do with compressed revenues, right?

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The hash price is very low.

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But also in general, I don't know exactly what the weather is like now in North America,

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but you see some impact of winter storms as well during these winter months.

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So in the previous years, you've seen also has rates slowing down in December, January,

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just like we see in the summer months when there's heat waves.

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So high power pricing, but then we've had China scaling back.

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Yeah, I know it just feels like a very, very weird time for mining,

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but nevertheless, I feel like buying miners right now might be a very good play

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because I don't think it can stay there for too much longer.

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you see all these used machines flooding the market and yeah maybe as I said let's start

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there Nico like hash rate growth 2025 what is your key takeaways there

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yeah I think a huge takeaway is that we crossed that setahash it seems like a while ago already

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but yeah I believe it was September that we crossed one setahash for the first time

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and to put that into perspective,

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it was only the beginning of 2020

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that we crossed 100 extra hashes for the first time.

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So 10x in a bit more than five years

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and more important, we didn't drop back, right?

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So we crossed through that one center hash and stayed above.

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We saw a big decline over the last few months

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but there was around 90 extra hashes

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sorry and we're still above that one one set of hash so i think that's a very significant

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and a big milestone but then if you look at you have the chart here like it's been very choppy

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it's been very volatile the the hash rate over the the last year there were three big drawdowns

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of 100 plus extra hashes and there was only one occasion in 24 that that happened more than 100

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extra hashes that came offline on that seven day moving average so

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uh well in the summer it was because of the the the heat waves that were going on in in north

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america where i was obviously a lot of uh mining is concentrated around 38 percent of mining is

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happening in the us of and of that uh big amount of hash rate a lot of uh it is hashing in uh in

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texas and when there's heat waves miners curtail because they participate in demand response

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programs and they're obliged to uh to power down or many also uh power down or or yeah

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completely shut off during the harder days harder hours during the day to protect their equipment

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especially if you have air-cooled machines, you don't want them to get damaged.

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So many miners that don't participate in demand programs still put the machines in lower power modes during these hot days.

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So that was the reason for the big drop in the summer months.

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And before that, I don't know the exact reason, but I assume it has to do with new miners coming online, older equipment going offline, being moved to jurisdictions where power prices are cheaper.

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So I guess it's the network on the move, let's say, or ASICs being replaced and deployed elsewhere.

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What other key developments did you guys see or report on in the report in 2025?

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If you can think of a couple highlights.

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So obvious examples, Bitdeer that started the year, I believe, between 10 and 20.

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Actually, I'll have to look it up exactly.

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But they grew very aggressively this year.

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They launched their SEAL Miner A2 and A3 series and the pro versions of those.

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Many of those were wrecked on their own wrecks and they grew their operating mining fleet to over 40 extra hashes in early December.

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And at the beginning of January, they had like 60 extra hashes of installed hashrates.

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So I expect Biddeer maybe to become the biggest miner even this year, surpassing Mera.

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and then Kanaan also a public miner

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that manufactures ASICS

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is reaching that 10 extra hash of deployed hash rates

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and then there's the other manufacturers

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like Bitmain and Wattsminer

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that you and I and other players in the industry

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know that they're self-mining

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but they don't need to report on that necessarily

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because they're not a public company

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but they've been, if we look at Bitmain

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They've been selling off facilities to Kangol, for example.

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So, yeah, many of these ASIC manufacturers are starting to self-mine

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because the demand for ASICs is slowing down

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while they want to keep up those contracts with semiconductors

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and be able to have access to those chip wavers and continue to produce.

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and that's the reason why they start to self-mine more aggressively.

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What does that mean for ASIC pricing going forward?

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Maybe let's look into the future on that note a bit.

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What do you think we will see?

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I don't know what that will.

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Just to add, we've seen huge slashes in price now recently.

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The S19K, I think it's like $2.8 per T or something if you buy it in bulk.

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It's crazy.

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it puts the used market on its heels because now, you know,

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that's what you got to price your used gear around is like similar

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or better efficiency units at very, very low prices.

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Do you think that's going to continue?

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Where do you think the break even is?

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Yeah, so I think there is a huge impact because when these ASIC

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manufacturers start self-mining, they essentially have a very low

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capital expenditure, right?

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So they spend way less money on their ASICs

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than any miner would if they buy retail or even wholesale.

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So they have a competitive advantage there,

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which also now that you see that the demand is slowing,

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it doesn't slow down the hash rate growth.

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So it makes maybe that hash rate growth less predictable

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or maybe even more predictable if you know that they keep on deploying.

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But it's less cyclical because of it, because the hashrate comes online

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even though the demand is soft.

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The impact on pricing, I think we've seen low prices for various reasons,

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not only because demand was low, but also you have these bigger miners

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that are able to set prices whereby before maybe the manufacturers had more power and were able to set the prices So the tables have turned a bit in that aspect

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Yeah, and then perhaps more competition also in the mining space, right?

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Bitmain obviously is still a very dominant player,

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but with Bitdeer scaling up and Auradine entering the game

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and you see more competition popping up.

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So yeah, I think prices will stay suppressed for a while still.

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Yeah, unless what I keep projecting finally happens

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and Bitcoin price goes nuts

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while competition for power is at an all-time high with AI

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and a hash price only knows one direction.

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because i mean look we you you said something um early already about you know hash rate growth in

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2025 is there is there a scenario where um where hash rate doesn't grow year over year this year you

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think uh yeah i don't see that happening very quickly i do think like we've seen three years

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in a row like that like from the difference between 23 and 22 was huge like it went from

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i think it was like 87 extra hashes that were added in one year to 250. 24 was 288 25 was 277

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but you see that the the nominal amount of hash rate being added is it feels like it's hitting a

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ceiling so i don't expect all of a sudden 500 extra hashes to be added to the network in 26

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but i also don't think like we don't see any hash rate being added so my expectation is that yeah we

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hit that ceiling and that growth will be similar this year to what we've seen uh seen last year

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despite the competition for power and power being the bottleneck i think bitcoin miners will find

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their way to where there's power available at a good price.

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Because there's still a lot of power in the world to access.

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And without further ado, let's get back to it.

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Yeah, and I think that's going to create some really interesting opportunities.

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because in a world where these older units, now new,

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don't cost as much anymore and used gear,

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independent of hash price,

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the used units will still have to compete with that.

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And an S19K Pro is not going to jump from three to,

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I don't know, $6 again, I think, when hash price moves

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because everybody's still going to be interested

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in those newer models, right?

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But then that's the market I play in, you know,

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and mining in Africa often is

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between 25

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and 30 joule per T

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units and mining on those

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and if they remain cheap

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and you have that hash rate online

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and obviously you get a boom

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in hash price

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in dollar terms

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then that's a very good position to be in

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and yeah

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those fringes, I want to ask you about Ethiopia

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just now but maybe give me your

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thoughts on

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you know where does mining go the fringes where are you seeing those for 2026

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uh we mean like uh locations or like what do you mean by fringes yeah yeah fringes and because i

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had i still had one thought about the asic and the pricing like what i'm curious to see is that

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now you see the efficiency gains are slowing down this year there's the first machines that

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coming out that are below the 10 joules per tera hash but uh yeah much lower deficiency uh is likely

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not to uh not going unless there's a a huge innovation uh but it's uh i'm curious to see

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like whether the the longevity from economic perspective of these machines will increase you

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know like that maybe the turnover will will be slower than we've seen in the past and then

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and you can mine longer with your units.

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That's something I'm eyeing very closely.

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Yeah, no, I concur with you.

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I mean, I feel like the more efficiency gains we have,

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the harder it gets to achieve more efficient units, even still.

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And then, you know, the focus is just on something else.

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you know like uptime probably or like yeah like uh i think there will be a move towards more quality

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units that break less yeah like orodyne's machines yeah from what i've been hearing that's exactly

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that and that total cost of ownership yes you pay a higher up front for on paper a lesser machine

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but then what really matters is the operating efficiency over two year three year lifespan

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Yeah, but back to that original question, Nico, where do you see like miners moving when we talk about the fringes of the energy system, like location-wise and business model-wise?

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Yeah, so in the report, we talk about the AI HPC movement, right, and how that competes for power.

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but you see that these AI HPC data centers they are after premium power you know on grid high

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uptime so I think miners will move more and more to the edges like remote where there's no fiber

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available where power is more intermittent so yeah perhaps flared gas or in areas where there's a lot

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of renewables and you need to curtail your operations because of to balance the grid let's

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say yeah so I see miners moving more to those types of locations and that can be in various

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uh parts of the of the world right um and already what i've been seeing last year is that uh many

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miners are uh are acquiring sites that are and then i'm talking about private miners not necessarily

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the public miners they acquire sites that have five to twenty megawatts that's kind of a lot of

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deals that i've been seeing uh and and those sizes are not uh always competing with ai hbc so uh

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00:18:34,092 --> 00:18:43,612
just smaller sites more remote sites uh uh power uh that's less reliable or uh intermittent and

229
00:18:43,612 --> 00:18:50,012
then yeah there's obviously jurisdictions like in the in the brief before we talked uh shortly about

230
00:18:50,012 --> 00:18:56,652
uganda there's there's gonna be jurisdictions where uh at risk from a political standpoints

231
00:18:56,652 --> 00:19:02,252
and there's maybe also bridge to ethiopia like uh there's there's markets that have a higher risk

232
00:19:02,252 --> 00:19:10,012
profile and in ai hpc will will first go to where that's uh that risk is relatively low because

233
00:19:10,012 --> 00:19:16,892
there's more capital at risk uh then uh in the case of bitcoin mining and bitcoin miners are also

234
00:19:16,892 --> 00:19:22,172
very mobile right like it's uh eventually it could pick up your container and move elsewhere

235
00:19:23,772 --> 00:19:29,132
it doesn't always make sense from a cost perspective but uh at least uh yeah it's more

236
00:19:29,132 --> 00:19:34,812
mobile than ai it's another it's another good bridge to ethiopia because those people who have

237
00:19:34,812 --> 00:19:42,012
heavily invested in ethiopia are not happy right now you know um because yes technically it's mobile

238
00:19:42,572 --> 00:19:49,292
but you know if you've got 10 000 asics in ethiopia right now good luck and you want to move them

239
00:19:50,252 --> 00:19:54,732
you know it's it's going to be very very difficult to do that but do you want to give um listeners

240
00:19:54,732 --> 00:19:58,052
an overview over what happened in Ethiopia from your perspective.

241
00:19:58,292 --> 00:20:00,512
How did you transpire?

242
00:20:00,632 --> 00:20:05,672
Yeah, so I think I know as much details as you do,

243
00:20:05,672 --> 00:20:11,012
but we've seen an announcement that rates were going to increase,

244
00:20:11,132 --> 00:20:13,772
and I believe the first increase already happened in December,

245
00:20:13,932 --> 00:20:18,132
but there's more coming up to such an extent

246
00:20:18,132 --> 00:20:23,672
that it doesn't make sense anymore to be mining in Ethiopia

247
00:20:23,672 --> 00:20:33,112
ethiopia unless you're there to london money uh likely but uh yeah so the i think uh it's a pity

248
00:20:33,112 --> 00:20:41,832
because um many miners invested a lot there like in a short period i think it was in 24 alone that

249
00:20:41,832 --> 00:20:49,912
600 megawatts was built out uh yeah where is that uh that's that this capacity going now that's a

250
00:20:49,912 --> 00:20:57,112
a big question and like you said it's not as easy to move that amount of equipment but uh

251
00:20:57,112 --> 00:21:02,632
yeah also think of the the time if you move it that your equipment is standing still not making

252
00:21:02,632 --> 00:21:09,992
any money and then the the the shipping costs uh importation uh taxes etc so it's uh

253
00:21:10,952 --> 00:21:18,632
um yeah i'm curious to see what's going to happen where uh maybe miners just stay and and

254
00:21:18,632 --> 00:21:24,512
and run as long as they can and then declare the site for that

255
00:21:24,512 --> 00:21:29,732
and they stay in country or whether they actually are going to move.

256
00:21:30,332 --> 00:21:30,472
Yeah.

257
00:21:30,912 --> 00:21:34,992
I did a speech in Mauritius on this

258
00:21:34,992 --> 00:21:42,332
and how Ethiopia is severely royally messing up their chance of independence

259
00:21:42,332 --> 00:21:46,912
from an international perspective.

260
00:21:46,912 --> 00:21:52,052
because you know if you look at the numbers there is a world in which ethiopia in the next 10 years

261
00:21:52,052 --> 00:22:00,352
replaces all foreign aid development aid with bitcoin mining revenue from power that's otherwise

262
00:22:00,352 --> 00:22:07,252
not sold um and it's just so sad to see you know it's like the same thing happening all over again

263
00:22:07,252 --> 00:22:24,644
like paraguay um was like not in i sure last year we spoke about paraguay and how Paraguay had a chance to make more money from the dam They were selling power to Brazil at Ascent but now there competition for that power in Paraguay

264
00:22:24,644 --> 00:22:34,004
And it's just so sad to see these countries not leverage these opportunities that they have to the best of their ability.

265
00:22:34,004 --> 00:22:35,064
but it is.

266
00:22:35,224 --> 00:22:39,524
I think the biggest impact is also like,

267
00:22:40,264 --> 00:22:45,064
you see that doing business in such a country as Ethiopia

268
00:22:45,064 --> 00:22:46,984
is very unpredictable.

269
00:22:47,624 --> 00:22:52,284
So, I mean, I understand that maybe there's pressure on a grid

270
00:22:52,284 --> 00:22:54,504
or there's upgrades that are required,

271
00:22:54,644 --> 00:22:59,364
but I think they could have worked much better with the sector

272
00:22:59,364 --> 00:23:03,484
and be able to find a solution that would be beneficial

273
00:23:03,484 --> 00:23:05,204
for everyone.

274
00:23:05,724 --> 00:23:07,944
But it's also miners, right, Nico?

275
00:23:08,084 --> 00:23:10,184
I mean, if the amount of miners

276
00:23:10,184 --> 00:23:12,404
that were advertising sites to me

277
00:23:12,404 --> 00:23:14,164
and they were so proud

278
00:23:14,164 --> 00:23:15,924
that they were 30 minutes from the airport,

279
00:23:16,484 --> 00:23:18,304
I'm like, guys, this is not a good thing.

280
00:23:18,864 --> 00:23:21,884
You know, you need to be five hours away

281
00:23:21,884 --> 00:23:24,904
from the airport in a remote area somewhere

282
00:23:24,904 --> 00:23:26,664
where there's a substation that has,

283
00:23:26,744 --> 00:23:29,124
I don't know, two gigawatts of power available to it.

284
00:23:29,124 --> 00:23:31,164
That's where you got to be.

285
00:23:31,164 --> 00:23:36,164
not in the capital center where power is not scarce.

286
00:23:37,004 --> 00:23:39,064
But anyway, this is not an Ethiopia episode.

287
00:23:39,464 --> 00:23:40,304
I want to talk to you more.

288
00:23:40,384 --> 00:23:42,784
No, but it could set a blueprint for other countries, right?

289
00:23:43,244 --> 00:23:43,724
Yeah.

290
00:23:44,304 --> 00:23:51,864
Even though it can show other countries maybe that's how you shouldn't do it.

291
00:23:53,144 --> 00:23:53,664
Yeah.

292
00:23:54,544 --> 00:23:57,084
You need flexible power zones and all of that.

293
00:23:57,084 --> 00:24:01,404
And Nico, I want to talk to you a bit more about future outlooks.

294
00:24:03,264 --> 00:24:06,864
There is something that you mentioned in there that I didn't hear before,

295
00:24:08,064 --> 00:24:09,444
the Canaan partnership.

296
00:24:11,484 --> 00:24:12,084
Yes.

297
00:24:13,644 --> 00:24:17,364
With regard to the energy bottlenecks, what did they do?

298
00:24:17,364 --> 00:24:20,064
Yeah, so that's two points, I think.

299
00:24:20,064 --> 00:24:29,984
like one is that i i talk about canal getting into a partnership with sin vista which has turnkey

300
00:24:29,984 --> 00:24:39,744
energy storage systems and also data center systems and also bitmain very silently

301
00:24:40,544 --> 00:24:48,464
introducing their battery energy storage system i think it's interesting to see those moves because

302
00:24:48,464 --> 00:24:54,924
Because you see mining becoming more and more or going deeper and deeper into grid management.

303
00:24:55,924 --> 00:25:01,384
And it's no longer just generation or storage or mining.

304
00:25:01,384 --> 00:25:13,664
But it's a complete picture whereby these projects try to optimize the generation usually of renewable energy that's intermittent like wind and solar.

305
00:25:13,664 --> 00:25:23,224
uh yeah combine it with battery storage and uh and mining and uh yeah uh when uh when the time is

306
00:25:23,224 --> 00:25:32,344
right uh load up those batteries and uh unload them uh to sell to the grid and make uh make money

307
00:25:32,344 --> 00:25:39,844
there when there's no generation uh or when there's uh peaks and and low cost energy to start

308
00:25:39,844 --> 00:25:46,804
mining so i think that's a it's a very interesting uh yeah interesting development to see that

309
00:25:46,804 --> 00:25:53,204
both canaan and uh and bitmain are looking at that uh that corner let's say and i think uh

310
00:25:53,204 --> 00:25:59,124
they're collaborating with uh energy storage systems uh makes a lot of sense because bitcoin

311
00:25:59,124 --> 00:26:06,484
mining in to a certain extent is uh kind of uh it's not storing but uh it has the same same

312
00:26:06,484 --> 00:26:12,084
function let's say so making it an integrated part yeah it's an energy sink makes a lot of sense

313
00:26:12,084 --> 00:26:16,884
yeah why did you why do you think that main was so quiet about that

314
00:26:16,884 --> 00:26:25,944
i don't i don't know exactly i saw that uh they promoted it in uh at a trade show in dubai i

315
00:26:25,944 --> 00:26:34,584
believe uh all right but maybe they they will go uh more aggressively on that next year but i've

316
00:26:34,584 --> 00:26:41,904
I've seen that they trademarked their energy storage system.

317
00:26:41,904 --> 00:26:45,964
So maybe it's just a matter of getting to mass production

318
00:26:45,964 --> 00:26:49,344
and putting more dollars towards marketing.

319
00:26:50,304 --> 00:26:50,444
Yeah.

320
00:26:50,564 --> 00:26:53,404
And then you had a section in the outlooks that was titled

321
00:26:53,404 --> 00:26:54,984
Small caps on borrowed time.

322
00:26:55,704 --> 00:26:56,924
Consolidation isn't optional.

323
00:26:57,284 --> 00:26:59,104
You said to me before we started recording

324
00:26:59,104 --> 00:27:01,704
that there was something written by Cindy, right?

325
00:27:02,644 --> 00:27:06,544
Yeah, so Cindy Fang, the co-writer of the report,

326
00:27:06,544 --> 00:27:10,904
she does a great job on the public miners

327
00:27:10,904 --> 00:27:12,524
and does a lot of stock analysis.

328
00:27:13,364 --> 00:27:15,604
What it comes down to is that, well,

329
00:27:17,144 --> 00:27:20,544
the hash price has been compressed, right?

330
00:27:20,604 --> 00:27:24,524
Revenues are very thin, margins are very thin,

331
00:27:24,884 --> 00:27:29,604
and smaller miners have less economies of scale, let's say.

332
00:27:29,604 --> 00:27:34,604
so they essentially benefit less from that economic skills.

333
00:27:34,724 --> 00:27:38,844
They, in general, have a higher cost per miner

334
00:27:38,844 --> 00:27:41,064
because they have less negotiation power,

335
00:27:41,684 --> 00:27:47,724
and then they have less access to cheap capital

336
00:27:47,724 --> 00:27:51,424
and, in general, weaker liquidity.

337
00:27:51,764 --> 00:27:58,744
So it's just that the big boys will probably be able to withstand

338
00:27:59,604 --> 00:28:06,484
these periods of low margins for a longer time.

339
00:28:08,144 --> 00:28:12,564
And I think tied to that is also that many of the bigger miners,

340
00:28:12,564 --> 00:28:17,904
they have a lot of power capacity in their pipeline,

341
00:28:17,904 --> 00:28:24,964
and they've been signing big deals on the AI HPC side.

342
00:28:25,424 --> 00:28:28,744
So they've been able maybe to pivot also.

343
00:28:29,604 --> 00:28:38,644
easier than than the smaller caps yeah i i um on the flip side of that is you know i'm i think i

344
00:28:38,644 --> 00:28:44,404
saw a headline today where where it said that riot was selling record amounts of their bitcoin that

345
00:28:44,404 --> 00:28:53,444
they have in treasury because these are very low margin um times and yeah the typically the smaller

346
00:28:53,444 --> 00:29:00,324
players i feel like are more nimble and able to take um advantage of these sort of fringe mining

347
00:29:00,324 --> 00:29:06,564
opportunities you know because certain places will only think above yeah megawatts but there's not

348
00:29:06,564 --> 00:29:13,684
that i think if you know but we are talking about public miners still right like in that section it

349
00:29:13,684 --> 00:29:21,684
talks about uh small caps uh small cap caps miners i think private miners in general like they

350
00:29:21,684 --> 00:29:27,244
They're a bit smaller, but most private miners, there's bigger miners, obviously.

351
00:29:27,244 --> 00:29:33,904
But I think private miners in general are more lean financially.

352
00:29:34,304 --> 00:29:44,844
They don't have management that gets big bonuses and don't depend on entering into deals just to get a headline and boost the stock price.

353
00:29:44,844 --> 00:29:56,704
So, yeah, I do think like these small cap public miners will struggle more than many private miners.

354
00:29:56,704 --> 00:30:01,284
This episode is sponsored by Hashbranch, the easiest way to mine Bitcoin in the US.

355
00:30:01,744 --> 00:30:04,304
Sourcing hardware and rack space usually is a mess.

356
00:30:04,504 --> 00:30:08,524
Bad deal structures, misaligned incentives and no visibility after deployment.

357
00:30:09,044 --> 00:30:12,904
I have placed tens of thousands of ASICs in partnership with Hashbranch.

358
00:30:12,904 --> 00:30:18,544
what i like most is that they cut through the noise fair pricing align terms and access to

359
00:30:18,544 --> 00:30:25,824
hosting that actually works use code hash rate up 100 visit hash branch.com today to get 100

360
00:30:25,824 --> 00:30:31,004
off of each miner that you order last but not least oh no actually i want to talk to you about

361
00:30:31,004 --> 00:30:37,984
solo mining as well um another section titled let's do the same for more hyperscaler deals

362
00:30:37,984 --> 00:30:45,544
less narrative premium and treasury still a feature not a product that's also by cindy i'm assuming

363
00:30:45,544 --> 00:30:54,644
yeah it is um but yeah so this year there were a lot of announcements right uh that boosted stock

364
00:30:54,644 --> 00:31:02,844
price uh i think uh or 25 like i'm still living in the past so in 24 you saw a lot of miners

365
00:31:02,844 --> 00:31:08,924
already announcing their pivot and that announcement of the pivot to ai hbc uh would boost their stock

366
00:31:08,924 --> 00:31:16,444
price this year it was really uh onboarding clients uh that uh yeah especially big ticket

367
00:31:16,444 --> 00:31:25,084
names like microsoft uh fluid stack core weave deals like those uh boosted stock prices um

368
00:31:25,964 --> 00:31:31,564
the the thought of cindy there and also something i i think is going to happen is that

369
00:31:31,564 --> 00:31:41,824
But right now, a lot of investors are still learning how to evaluate these stocks with regards to AI HPC deals.

370
00:31:42,424 --> 00:31:45,504
But there's many miners that have different business models, right?

371
00:31:45,584 --> 00:31:50,164
So there's miners that deploy GPUs at third parties and self-compute.

372
00:31:50,164 --> 00:31:52,404
There's miners that co-locate.

373
00:31:53,104 --> 00:32:01,244
There's miners that build out these facilities for hyperscales that are tailor-made.

374
00:32:01,564 --> 00:32:10,524
there's different types of business models. AI HPC is now by many seen as one revenue stream, but

375
00:32:13,004 --> 00:32:20,204
you'll see investors becoming more sophisticated, understanding the business behind the AI HPC

376
00:32:21,324 --> 00:32:29,004
play, and they will value more and more those that result into

377
00:32:29,004 --> 00:32:34,004
to an immediate or fast revenue stream

378
00:32:34,164 --> 00:32:37,224
and also perhaps a bigger premium, right?

379
00:32:37,224 --> 00:32:40,383
So onboarding a hyperscaler is great,

380
00:32:40,383 --> 00:32:43,244
but it's a big scale, it's small margins.

381
00:32:43,244 --> 00:32:47,144
Well, if you aim for smaller players,

382
00:32:47,144 --> 00:32:49,464
the premiums might be higher,

383
00:32:49,464 --> 00:32:54,024
just like in hosting with Bitcoin mining, right?

384
00:32:54,024 --> 00:32:57,383
Like you can make a higher margin

385
00:32:57,383 --> 00:33:01,644
with retail miners compared to institutional miners.

386
00:33:02,304 --> 00:33:02,964
Understood.

387
00:33:03,924 --> 00:33:06,804
Nico, talk to me about solar mining in 2025.

388
00:33:07,883 --> 00:33:09,504
Do you have anything to work on mine there?

389
00:33:09,504 --> 00:33:12,864
Yeah, so there's a piece about solar mining in there.

390
00:33:12,864 --> 00:33:16,824
Like we've identified 36 blocks that were solar mined.

391
00:33:18,084 --> 00:33:32,856
Perhaps there more out there that I missed but I looked at the CK pool and the easy mining tool of NiceHash So I found 36 solar mined blocks in total in the mempool

392
00:33:34,275 --> 00:33:37,616
And we've seen it popping up on social media quite a bit,

393
00:33:37,756 --> 00:33:39,496
which I think is a great thing.

394
00:33:40,076 --> 00:33:42,756
And 36 sounds also like a great number,

395
00:33:42,896 --> 00:33:46,236
but like today I was calculating, I was like, okay,

396
00:33:46,236 --> 00:33:51,156
There's 53,000 blocks that were produced last year.

397
00:33:51,436 --> 00:33:52,416
I just did the same math.

398
00:33:53,576 --> 00:33:57,656
36 solo mines is like 0.07%.

399
00:33:57,656 --> 00:34:02,716
So it's a small percentage, but I think it's a great movement

400
00:34:02,716 --> 00:34:07,936
that people are more and more adopting these home miners,

401
00:34:08,056 --> 00:34:11,036
small miners like Bitax and learn about mining.

402
00:34:11,036 --> 00:34:13,496
but there's also bigger players that

403
00:34:13,496 --> 00:34:15,155
like to

404
00:34:15,155 --> 00:34:17,835
gamble and point

405
00:34:17,835 --> 00:34:19,816
a big amount of hash rate for

406
00:34:19,816 --> 00:34:22,155
a certain amount of time towards

407
00:34:22,155 --> 00:34:23,216
solo money

408
00:34:23,216 --> 00:34:25,335
yeah I think it's

409
00:34:25,335 --> 00:34:28,036
significant because it just shows you

410
00:34:28,036 --> 00:34:29,896
again that small bid access

411
00:34:29,896 --> 00:34:32,036
standing here, playing by the exact same

412
00:34:32,036 --> 00:34:32,456
rules

413
00:34:32,456 --> 00:34:35,796
than the big public

414
00:34:35,796 --> 00:34:37,896
miners worth billions of dollars

415
00:34:37,896 --> 00:34:39,756
yeah there were some

416
00:34:39,756 --> 00:34:48,876
bit access or nerd nerd miners that uh also hit blocks so it's it's not only a bigger amount of

417
00:34:48,876 --> 00:34:55,595
of uh of hash rate but uh also these these mini miners that have been hitting blocks and it's

418
00:34:55,595 --> 00:35:01,835
obviously grace like it's uh i'm i'm excited i'm gonna build this month hopefully um the

419
00:35:01,835 --> 00:35:09,516
juakali miner did you see that from gridless no it's like a 12 volt dc miner i have some content

420
00:35:09,516 --> 00:35:14,876
that on my on my channel as well and i'm building that it's like an in between between a real miner

421
00:35:14,876 --> 00:35:21,496
and a and a bidax or something the idea is that you can just build it yourself it's fully open

422
00:35:21,496 --> 00:35:27,236
sourced all the parts you know are out there and now i have to put together put together the thing

423
00:35:27,236 --> 00:35:35,496
and find somebody with solar to hook it up to directly to dc um and uh yeah that that gets me

424
00:35:35,496 --> 00:35:36,536
real excited.

425
00:35:38,496 --> 00:35:39,936
Yeah, I think it's a great

426
00:35:39,936 --> 00:35:41,615
educational tool, right? These

427
00:35:41,615 --> 00:35:43,815
smaller miners. Yeah, for sure.

428
00:35:43,956 --> 00:35:46,115
I think if you have it on a desk and you receive

429
00:35:46,115 --> 00:35:48,276
people at your office

430
00:35:48,276 --> 00:35:50,196
or at your home, then it's

431
00:35:50,196 --> 00:35:52,216
always a good way to

432
00:35:52,216 --> 00:35:54,175
tell people about what it is

433
00:35:54,175 --> 00:35:55,776
and how it works.

434
00:35:56,315 --> 00:35:58,296
Hey, even like the Avalon

435
00:35:58,296 --> 00:36:00,175
Q has been, you know, Alta Air

436
00:36:00,175 --> 00:36:02,155
who have started sponsoring the show.

437
00:36:02,696 --> 00:36:04,175
Alta Air is selling the

438
00:36:04,175 --> 00:36:05,615
Avalon Q like hotcakes.

439
00:36:06,536 --> 00:36:07,095
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

440
00:36:07,095 --> 00:36:08,655
They've been...

441
00:36:08,655 --> 00:36:11,095
Anybody who's got free power in the office.

442
00:36:12,056 --> 00:36:12,256
Yeah.

443
00:36:12,675 --> 00:36:19,416
I also know guys that sell bid access and they've sold a lot.

444
00:36:20,135 --> 00:36:23,576
It's really impressive how big the demand is.

445
00:36:23,796 --> 00:36:25,556
So it's very interesting to see.

446
00:36:26,016 --> 00:36:32,076
And I like to see that Kanan is on that home miner game as well,

447
00:36:32,076 --> 00:36:34,615
including their home heaters, right?

448
00:36:34,696 --> 00:36:37,376
Their heating systems that look fancy

449
00:36:37,376 --> 00:36:39,095
and not like your regular miner.

450
00:36:39,736 --> 00:36:41,556
I'm very excited about this year, Nico.

451
00:36:41,595 --> 00:36:42,876
I think it's going to be a very good year.

452
00:36:42,936 --> 00:36:44,036
It's going to be very interesting

453
00:36:44,036 --> 00:36:46,536
for those of us who've been in this industry

454
00:36:46,536 --> 00:36:47,556
to see where it's going.

455
00:36:48,696 --> 00:36:50,196
It's going to be interesting, I think,

456
00:36:50,256 --> 00:36:51,516
on the pool front as well.

457
00:36:51,576 --> 00:36:52,716
We haven't talked about pools,

458
00:36:52,796 --> 00:36:54,036
but I'm sure you covered them as well.

459
00:36:54,496 --> 00:36:55,776
I know you work on our pools,

460
00:36:55,776 --> 00:36:57,315
so I'm sure they have a section there.

461
00:36:58,456 --> 00:37:02,016
This sort of FPPS versus PPLNS game,

462
00:37:02,076 --> 00:37:05,716
or real-time FPPS potentially.

463
00:37:07,396 --> 00:37:09,876
Energy sources, mining on the fringes,

464
00:37:09,996 --> 00:37:13,976
what's the next Ethiopia is going to be super interesting.

465
00:37:14,236 --> 00:37:17,416
Mining in Africa, it can only grow really.

466
00:37:18,356 --> 00:37:20,016
Latin America as well.

467
00:37:21,076 --> 00:37:22,276
What's happening in China?

468
00:37:22,376 --> 00:37:24,456
There's just so much happening at the same time.

469
00:37:24,456 --> 00:37:27,916
Yeah, it's so much like also with the report,

470
00:37:28,155 --> 00:37:30,216
like it's a very dense and long report,

471
00:37:30,216 --> 00:37:36,296
but we didn't include everything like we had to be selective for what to include so that's

472
00:37:36,296 --> 00:37:42,216
i think it's very dynamic it's a broad ecosystem you can work on many different things within the

473
00:37:42,216 --> 00:37:48,456
mining space so that's exciting and you see more people from other sectors dripping in right from

474
00:37:48,456 --> 00:37:54,296
the energy sector from the finance sector so i think that's that's only going to drive innovation

475
00:37:54,296 --> 00:38:00,536
and new services and products that i'm you wanna do you wanna do predictions to round out

476
00:38:02,615 --> 00:38:09,976
well i'm not fond of predictions but you shortly touched upon price before we haven't talked

477
00:38:09,976 --> 00:38:18,776
much about price yeah but uh yeah the fact that uh bitcoin uh ended slightly in the red is uh

478
00:38:18,776 --> 00:38:24,696
it's really uh yeah i think unique if you see all the developments has been going on

479
00:38:24,696 --> 00:38:32,216
on the regulatory aspect the institutional interest so yeah they there's been a lot of talk

480
00:38:32,216 --> 00:38:41,815
of cell pressure of uh ogs right so i think uh yeah i'm if you look at what happened over 2025

481
00:38:41,815 --> 00:38:47,016
and then where the price is standing it's it seems like uh bitcoin there's just so much insecurity

482
00:38:47,016 --> 00:38:53,576
in the world man there's and i think bitcoin still trades like a risk risks uh risk on asset

483
00:38:54,376 --> 00:38:58,936
risk off anyway you know what i'm trying to say it's not trading like gold is what i'm trying to

484
00:38:58,936 --> 00:39:07,976
say yeah it's a risk on a risk on asset yeah um so yeah i do it yeah hash price hash rate

485
00:39:07,976 --> 00:39:15,256
predictions in a year from now what do you think will be yeah so um in the report i did some

486
00:39:15,256 --> 00:39:25,496
some projection like taking the month of a month growth rate of hash rates and then if

487
00:39:25,496 --> 00:39:34,016
you do that if you apply a 2.52% month of a month growth has rate will end up at 1400

488
00:39:34,016 --> 00:39:42,256
extra hashes if you take the nominal growth that we'll be seeing it will be around 1350

489
00:39:42,256 --> 00:39:48,256
something like that so i expect hash rate to be in that range but if has rate is in that range

490
00:39:48,896 --> 00:39:56,335
and bitcoin does not surpass the 100k again then hash price will stay below that 40 dollars per

491
00:39:56,335 --> 00:40:04,175
peta hash so i think that's going to be very interesting to see like we've been going under

492
00:40:04,175 --> 00:40:13,856
the 40 uh dollars per pet has in mid november so it's been seven weeks that we're below that level

493
00:40:15,376 --> 00:40:20,896
yeah the longer we stay below that 40 dollars per pet has the the the more miners will uh

494
00:40:21,615 --> 00:40:30,736
be struggling yeah and uh the more riot will have to sell off their uh their bitcoin right so uh

495
00:40:30,736 --> 00:40:39,576
So I think if price doesn't do what it needs to do in the first half of the year,

496
00:40:39,595 --> 00:40:43,155
it's going to be very interesting to see what's going to happen.

497
00:40:43,815 --> 00:40:51,356
I have to say I love these times because it's like high hash price,

498
00:40:51,356 --> 00:40:56,115
everybody celebrates, but then low hash price, everybody tries to innovate.

499
00:40:57,095 --> 00:40:58,536
And you see what's really possible.

500
00:40:58,536 --> 00:41:07,896
you know yeah and then maybe also looking forward uh the halving is not that far away so 2028

501
00:41:07,896 --> 00:41:17,155
around may i believe it is now uh so yeah you asked before will hash rate grow like what might

502
00:41:17,155 --> 00:41:24,196
slow down hash rate growth is uh the fact that the next halving is is is nearing and uh and that

503
00:41:24,196 --> 00:41:29,796
transaction fees has been very low so it's yes look it's a it's a it's a funny phenomenon because

504
00:41:29,796 --> 00:41:35,155
it's very tough right now to imagine just from a feeling perspective it's very tough to imagine

505
00:41:35,155 --> 00:41:44,436
bitcoin price at 200 000 but once it hits 140 you know okay now it's much easier to to imagine 200

506
00:41:44,436 --> 00:41:54,115
000 um and look if if every halving um if at every halving bitcoin price has doubled then hash price

507
00:41:54,115 --> 00:42:05,556
price doesn't move much right um so yeah it's uh i i i love this industry i have to say it's

508
00:42:05,556 --> 00:42:12,596
always interesting to philosophize it's never sure um but it's always better to have hash rate online

509
00:42:12,596 --> 00:42:18,115
than offline that's that's the only thing that matters you know and i'm just out here finding

510
00:42:18,115 --> 00:42:27,716
revenue splits um cheap power fringe power uh and i'm i have my hash rate on my on my block clock

511
00:42:27,716 --> 00:42:33,476
and it makes me smile every day um and it doesn't really matter what hash price is if because i've

512
00:42:33,476 --> 00:42:39,196
you know bitcoin if if you have sort of these these revenue split deals where you just get hash

513
00:42:39,196 --> 00:42:47,716
rate um and uh a shout out to our pool i find that fantastic that you guys put out the the daily

514
00:42:47,716 --> 00:42:52,996
earnings very transparently with a lot of decimal positions.

515
00:42:52,996 --> 00:42:55,155
Yeah, the sets per terahash, right?

516
00:42:55,155 --> 00:42:56,356
On LinkedIn, yeah.

517
00:42:56,356 --> 00:42:58,115
It still seems like you're earning a lot, but...

518
00:42:58,115 --> 00:43:03,315
Exactly. And it's going up, you know? Difficulty is moving down again.

519
00:43:03,315 --> 00:43:09,716
Yeah, that's, I think, something miners really appreciate. It's a small thing, but

520
00:43:11,076 --> 00:43:17,076
a stable or downwards adjustment is something that miners appreciate.

521
00:43:17,076 --> 00:43:23,396
yeah definitely nico this has been fun again please everybody who's listened and made it this

522
00:43:23,396 --> 00:43:30,196
far make sure you download the report if you have not read through it skim through it upload it to

523
00:43:30,196 --> 00:43:36,835
chat gpt and ask questions make sure you interact with it it's really very very dense um and there's

524
00:43:36,835 --> 00:43:41,876
a lot of nuances and a lot of learning in there so make sure to check it out nico any final words

525
00:43:41,876 --> 00:43:47,476
I mean, if there's questions, you can always reach out to me.

526
00:43:47,476 --> 00:43:50,835
I'm very active on LinkedIn and on X as well.

527
00:43:51,835 --> 00:43:55,655
And you can find me via my website as well, digitalminingsolutions.tech.

528
00:43:55,835 --> 00:44:03,036
So if you don't want to ask ChatGP, feel free to send out a DM and reach out.

529
00:44:03,135 --> 00:44:05,335
Maybe you are ChatGPT, Nico, who knows?

530
00:44:06,736 --> 00:44:10,356
Well, yeah, I experienced recently something very weird.

531
00:44:10,356 --> 00:44:17,635
so uh yeah who knows we'll talk about that next time nico thank you so much for your time guys

532
00:44:18,356 --> 00:44:22,916
happy new year like follow subscribe comment you know all that jazz i don't need to tell you that

533
00:44:22,916 --> 00:44:32,196
in 2026 you should all be clued up i'll see you next time cheers bye bye