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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their

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currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Yeah, no, another, so I'm not sure if you saw the Citrini post this morning, but it was somebody using Muse,

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and they were on a Delta flight that got canceled on the tarmac, and he immediately went, rebooked this flight,

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and on top of that, go find how I can get reimbursed for this flight that just got canceled.

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within minutes he had a 250 credit and the citrini post was like number one you're insane to think

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that this is a bubble and this is going nowhere maybe there are bubbly parts but there is true

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utility here to say there's no use case is completely asinine then number two like all

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those pennies that consumers have left on the ground without like 250 credit they're about to

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get picked up by the agents and airlines being a perfect example what happens when people start

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efficiently using their miles and taking advantage of the refunds they can get.

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This is the beginning of the deflationary pressure on everything that we've talked about.

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You know, that we've, as people realize that AI is deflationary, to get deflationary for the

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service side, you need AI agents because the agents make decisions based on efficiency.

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And the use of it is just, I mean, that description of what Citrina did, you have to think about all

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the frustrating times you've had waiting to then rebook something. You get in a line when you get

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off the plane and how long the line is and everyone's trying to get on one. And then you're

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trying to get a refund and you're trying to rebook things. All of this stuff will be handled. The

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frustrating part will be handled by agents and that's already happening and it's happening now.

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So whether it's MetaMuse or whether it's Instinct AI, there's a reason why these things are having

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an impact now on the market. Yeah. Well, like I was telling you, I took Muse for a spin this

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morning just to check it out. Try to book Amtrak. Amtrak said bot, no. But point being,

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it feels like the first, like I said it to my wife after playing with it for 10 minutes. So it's

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like, okay, this is, I don't have to set up a Hermes agent for you. Like this is the agent

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that you can use to coordinate our calendars, the boys' sports schedule, all that, like download it,

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play with it today. That's the reason why this has now entered a realm for me of time.

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Any speaking engagement I'm doing now, it all gets back to time.

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You have to think about OpenClaw, which is a February thing in terms of adoption.

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Then you get into Hermes.

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Then you get into GrokBot.

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Then you get into, well, Astro and Claude can already do this and we're going to make

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it easier and we're going to embed all this into one.

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So if you use GrokBot, it's a completely different situation.

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You're using multiple agents to kind of run around and do tasks for you.

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So it's more like an autonomous workforce.

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With Muse and with Instinct AI and a lot of the other private ones, now you're getting

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into what we expected from Siri and what we expected from Alexa.

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But again, it's the fact that we're talking about something that is now seven months.

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So what has happened is the compression of time is happening through the model releases

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and through the advancements.

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The Navier Stokes problem, the agent swarm fears over, you know, hackings.

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These are all indications that were, you know, as I say repeatedly now, page 71 of situational

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awareness with Leopold shows where everything starts to speed up so fast that humans can't

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comprehend the change and they can't keep up with it.

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Well, if we can't keep up with it and we're starting to get into the transaction phase,

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the SWIFT system and everything that was built for humans will not work with the agents and

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they're going to start demanding faster rails.

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Yeah.

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No, it was this morning.

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Again the problem with Amtrak, you were describing as a monopoly and will move, but the airlines

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have moved.

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But imagine when I can load it up with a Bitcoin wallet.

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You were going into your bucks, you have Bitcoiners, you have the programmable money,

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and you have the incumbents.

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I'm a Bitcoiner.

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And the beauty about the programmable part is like,

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if I wanna use Bitcoin as my currency,

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the native digital currency,

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and I don't wanna touch anything else,

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I can just give the agent a Bitcoin wallet.

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It's like, all right, go figure out how to convert

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to the preferred currency of the service provider

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or the other agent you're buying something from.

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And I can see that's where things are going.

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And like I was saying, we're at the first stage

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where the incumbents have to realize this

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and begin re-architecting the infrastructure

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on the digital side they have to enable this

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because once they do,

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they gonna get a ton more business I think Yeah and again I think for people who don see this and trust me someone who when I speak about these things

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I'll occasionally go see the comments and the posts,

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and people don't connect the agentic side to,

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let's say, the crypto guardrails

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and then kind of the impact it'll have on business.

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And it's surprising to me.

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But again, because I live in it 24 hours a day, meaning I'm monitoring how things are moving and I'm using the tools.

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And yeah, oh, Muse is a thing.

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Let me go sign up for it.

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Okay, Instinct AI.

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I talk about it one week.

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The amount of people reached out.

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And again, when MetaMuse is the number one downloaded app, okay, and the numbers are big, you start realizing, oh, my God, the people who aren't paying attention to this, there's a million people that have already downloaded it.

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So it's like this is going to grow incredibly rapidly, especially when you realize how much time it can save you.

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The money part will come second.

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And that's the thing I keep trying to make sure people understand.

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The money thing will come second.

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But this is where you have to start realizing, OK, how is crypto directly connected to agents?

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And that's where you have to go back.

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And that's why the stuff I'm talking about now is it was always made for digital agents because they're the only ones that can utilize it.

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the speed and they're the only ones who truly care about why are we using Visa

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and MasterCard why are we doing any of this stuff why aren't we just going

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straight here here here let me negotiate let me go through it they have the time

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to do it and it's gonna be agent to agent the next thing people have to

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think about is how important cryptography is in this how important your identity

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is in this the ecosystem starts to grow rapidly once the agents start

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transacting because then all the things that have ever been written about and

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talked about become more important because the ecosystem starts to grow in

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in terms of volume and velocity,

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and the size of the ecosystem is gonna grow rapidly

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over the next 12 months.

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Yeah, digging into agents specifically

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and how unprepared people are,

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I don't think, mostly 99.5% of people on the planet

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don't understand that they hear AI, they think chat GPT,

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like okay, what's the usage looking like?

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When they think of usage, it's like okay,

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downloading Muse, talking with Muse,

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using tokens to do that.

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They don't realize that the agent to agent token usage

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has gone exponential and far exceeds the human LLM token usage.

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And that fact alone, I think, highlights

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the arbitrage that exists in the market.

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The fact that most people don't understand that fact

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is extremely powerful.

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It gets to something you've been talking about

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for many weeks now, which is that we're climbing this wall

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where you have a ton of the layman, the public out there thinking that this is a bubble that's going to pop eventually.

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And they think we're going to get into like a massive economic crisis driven by this.

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But if you look at the underlying usage, particularly agent to agent,

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it seems that the fundamentals are going not only in the right direction,

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but far exceeding what anybody thought up to this point.

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This is, for anyone listening who falls into the camp of a worrier on AI, which is the

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majority of people, getting an expected value of an investment is about lining up all of

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the probabilities, outcomes, and the upside and downside of all of them.

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So is there a bubble aspect?

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Of course, you could come up with a bunch of reasons.

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I mean, to me, they're all tail risks of things, but you're not going to stop the progress on AI.

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You can't.

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We're not going to pause it.

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Like, that was stupid.

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Like, everyone's waiting.

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Just the reaction to the pause in AI from the most sophisticated investors in the world, and I get emails that day.

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Well, we're going to be down big on Monday.

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I'm like, there'll be a knee-jerk reaction, and it'll be an opportunity to buy.

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And here we are, whatever many days later.

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We're way through those levels, meaning we're way above where it was before that news came

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out.

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So for everyone listening who's worried, the expected value, if you break it into a binomial

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situation, let's assume, I use what I did in my video, there's a 90% chance we're headed

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towards abundance.

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And there's a 10% chance that we're going to blow up and AI will never amount to anything.

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Okay, in one scenario, you have a zero, 10% chance of a zero.

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on the other side, you have a 90% chance of something just shockingly good.

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The expected value is shockingly good then in terms of the combination of the two.

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Now, you can come up with all the different scenarios you want in between, but the reality

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is if you're worried about the 10%, if you're waiting for that story, the debt is too big,

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this and that, I can refute all of it.

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But the only thing you have to make sure that you realize every day that the process gets

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consumer agents are different than enterprise agents.

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We haven't even completed the enterprise adoption yet,

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and we're already moving on to the consumer agent side.

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Consumer agents are very different than enterprise Enterprise is about replacing human employees and it through coding It through APIs and going into you know

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using up the amount of compute to figure things out.

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For consumer agents, now you're talking about them working

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24-7 to book you a trip, to look into this,

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to go through all of the permutations,

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the amount of websites they have to touch, it's continuous.

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So consumer agents on top of enterprise agents

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means the compute needs just keep growing. So again, it gets back to the simple thing.

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All bubbles are about supply being in front of demand. For the crypto doubters, we built the

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guardrails. It's an empty city. As I say, it's a ghost city. We built the infrastructure. We've

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been waiting for the users to come. Well, the users are coming in the form of agents.

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And if people want to watch one video for the rest of the month,

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to hear from someone who can take you through what's happening at the company level and how the

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ROIC is already happening in various forms, not in the way you want it, which is when are we going

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to see the revenues coming in? Oh, look, Anthropic and OpenAI only have X and the hyperscalers only

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have... No. John Gray from Blackstone gave a talk yesterday at his event for 30 minutes.

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it's on YouTube. And he literally went through the five different ways that his companies,

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of which he has private, how they're all bending from AI in five different ways to increase their

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profitability, which is seeing their margins grow. And he's taking you through those scenarios.

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I just don't think people have really, really thought hard enough about the fact that there's

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a higher probability of a good outcome than a bad outcome. And on the enterprise side,

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it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I think we had a pretty big signal from

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the enterprise that was last week or the week before with Latham and Watkins

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deciding to buy NVIDIA GPUs, self-host, and basically ensure that their IP isn't being

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leaked to Anthropic and OpenAI. And I don't know exactly how Latham and Watkins is implementing it,

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But I imagine what they're doing is uploading the knowledge base of that firm over the course of decades.

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And so every case, every outcome, every bit of research they've done that they have stored somewhere in a file system,

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just when you're talking about enterprise adoption, that's, I think, first before you even get into agents, it's like,

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OK, how do I imbue this institutional knowledge that we've built up over decades into this system so that the AI can basically use that to go achieve our goals?

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And that alone is a massive undertaking.

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So the question I have is why did it take him so long?

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I've talked about Eli Lilly.

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Eli Lilly did this a long time ago.

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I think their initial data center, private owned data center with a thousand GPUs, I think

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it's a thousand GPUs, went up in January, I believe.

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It's called LillyPod.

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They have ToonLab, which is a way for them brilliantly to collect other data, combine

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it with their data on an anonymous basis, but it helps them learn from their data while

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giving biotech companies the ability of testing their data on Eli Lilly's data.

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So if you have a science lab that has all of these experiments, the pros and cons that

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come and where everything was going, and you're just putting in there and seeing what the

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output comes in, you have to think about how quickly the Navier Stokes thing means that

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we're getting to. So for a law firm to do it, I guess the reason it took so long is because they

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didn't have the money that Eli Lilly did and they didn't have the understanding from being a fortune

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500 company. And this is why I think there's been two levels so far that have been accelerating.

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One is the fortune 500 companies that have the money are adopting very quickly because they can

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just write the check and start going through it. But they also have tons of tech engineers that are

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high level. I don't know if a law firm has that. So they have to probably go through a consultant

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that comes in and says what they can do. And then they decide to do it. If they have the money,

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they make the investment, they see the benefits. The other side that already is doing outside of

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Fortune 500 companies are AI native entrepreneurs. They're the ones that have the ability of using

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open source and not needing to worry about if their data is being used because it's a tiny

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little private company that's not trying to, it doesn't have things to protect. It actually needs

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to grow and the only thing they care about is going from zero today to a billion revenue

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in two years and before they could be competed, they'll probably be monetized and move on

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to the next thing.

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Yeah.

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I think of how we implemented it at TFTC.

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Everything we're feeding the model is public anyway, so I don't care if OpenAI or Anthropic

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sees it.

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But to your point, it is insane.

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I was demoing it last night at the open party here at PubKey for this Freedom Tech Week

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and I had my Hermes agents connected to our company brain

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and I was like hey use the fountain MCP fountains where we host our podcast for RSS and has video And I was like hey John Arnold and I from 1031 recorded a video this morning We talked about oil markets particularly

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and what people aren't seeing. Like Venezuela imports are going up. It looks like ships are

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making it through the straight at 60%. Go clip that and then pull out the juiciest sort

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of quote of that. And then a one sentence summary of the clip in its entirety posted

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on my ex within 10 minutes. I didn't even look at ex it was posted. But to talk about

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efficiency, that would have taken probably two hours for somebody on our team to go find

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it, clip it, get the tweet, get the subtitles. And I mean, that utility is very misunderstood

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right now for most people. This is just a podcast clipping.

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Yeah. Again, and for you guys, the IP is the using it. The AI models, they just keep

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getting better and better. The capabilities get better and better. And if you're involved

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in them every day, you know to ask, can I do this? For people that don't use it often,

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they'll see something in X or someone will tell them about something and then they'll

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go in and they'll look at it then.

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If you're not using it every day and knowing that it's getting better every single day

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and you're too worried about hallucinations and stuff like that, then you're not going

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to use it.

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If you don't use it, you're screwed.

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That's the plain simple thing.

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I think the value add for people is not understanding the things that AI can do out there.

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It's the ability of just asking the question, what can you do today that you couldn't do

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yesterday?

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And the more that you use it for those things, you start going.

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I've watched my Sunday video for a long time.

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I don't know if you noticed, but I was using a software, OpenBB, for a long time.

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And then all of a sudden, OpenBB, unfortunately, startup business, they closed down.

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And I know the founder.

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And it was a sad day.

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I really liked the guy.

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And I was using the software because at the beginning, when I started to do my video,

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which was in 2024, the AI capabilities could not really deal with it that well.

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And he kept making additions to it so that I could use it.

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So from my side, it was it'll help him and his business by me using it as a product, showing charts in it and things like that.

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But I had to make a switch during the summertime.

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And this was like on a Wednesday.

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And I put this stuff together with Inside Open BB.

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So I had to make a complete pivot.

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So now I'm in a bind.

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So I go to OpenAI and I ask the question.

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I ask ChatGPT.

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here's what I've been using. Here's a sample of the video. Here's the way I put it together. I

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need you to redo my process so that I can have a video done by the recording on Friday. That's two

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days for me to have to complete a completely new process to do something that takes a while.

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It took me through to use Google Slides. Now, I'd never used Google Slides in like a big way.

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I had only used it, let's say five times in my life,

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but it's told me it was the best way to do this

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for a variety of reasons that match,

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which in hindsight was completely true.

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My process has now been reduced by 70%,

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which is amazing because that means

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I could put the entire thing together,

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do the video on one day in four hours is now my guess.

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And that is the thing that's happened is it's changed it.

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Claude Cowork because I had this whole database now of OpenBB slides. I connected to that folder

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knowing that it was going. I uploaded everything from OpenBB. And now when I need to find a slide

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that I've used in the past, I just go into Cowork and go, can you find this slide on consumer agents

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and enterprise agents, which I did literally this morning. And it gives me the image.

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This kind of stuff you couldn't do six months ago. And so by asking the question when a problem

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comes up, how do I solve this? As opposed to panicking and then like, what am I going to do?

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And try to learn on your own. You have to have the instinct to just know that AI has the solution

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always. And so bringing this back to time, how much time do people have to get on this train?

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And then tying it to the wall of worry too. How fast, I mean, you said it's happening faster than

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we expected, but, and humans can't understand exponentials. What do you think the next year

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looks like and what are the opportunity costs if you don't move?

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So let's break this down by what people care about each day. So number one, their job. I'll

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leave health aside for a second because I don't think that has to do with this unless you want

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to go use it. But for your job, I don't think you have any more time. I think every company now

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realize is that they have to use AI agents and they can, they can, the law firm can pay for that.

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Maybe let's assume they had a certain amount of cash in the partnership and the partner sat around.

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And I don't know what happened, but I'm just saying if I was at the place, this is what I do. I'd sit around

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We go, how much money do we have to buy all these GPUs and set this up?

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If we make an investment based on the cash that we have, plus what's coming over the next year,

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what is that going to do from a CapEx perspective?

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And since it's not a public company, they don't have shareholder.

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It's their partnership.

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They have to make the decision.

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So they go, this is a good investment.

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How are we going to pay for it?

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You don't think they're going to pay for it with human beings?

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Like literally the compensation they have.

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And maybe it's not from firing people, but maybe it's not hiring people over the next five years

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because they won't need them.

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maybe it's a combination of both. You have to understand that with agents comes competition

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for human employees. So if you don't want to be one of the people that's let go,

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if you want to empower yourself to go build your own business to compete with that firm,

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because you don't have the issue they have, you can actually just use the public thing and grow

305
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your business and be a lawyer. You have your law degree, just go be a lawyer and serve me,

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I always need a lawyer to help me with my business.

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Empower yourself to feel that you can be an entrepreneur and you can compete with them

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before they get rid of you.

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The way to do that is to use it.

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I think within the next year, if you haven't done the usage side, the agency side, the

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empowerment side, I think you're in trouble.

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From the investment side and the financial side, which is the other thing I try to focus

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on, you have to understand that if you're worried about AI, you're probably also one

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of the ones not using it.

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There's a high correlation between I'm worried about this being a bubble, it's going to hurt

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my investment portfolio, and I'm not using it because I don't believe in it.

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That is the denial that people have.

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And I think on the investment side, you're losing money every day.

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The stock market not investing in it, I don't know what you're doing with your money, you

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think it's a bubble, you're reducing it, you've got it safe.

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You can make more money investing in the things that represent what it's going to look like.

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The infrastructure build that is going to continue.

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We need compute.

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It's the reason why I focus people on that side.

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Crypto, do your homework now on crypto.

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I view this as the beginning of an epic move in crypto

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because the guardrails are valued at zero.

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And I hate to say that to everyone,

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but the people supplying the guardrails are valued at zero.

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And the reason I know that is because if you take Ethereum and Bitcoin

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out of the crypto market cap, you're not left with a lot.

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It's less than micron.

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It's less like that is the infrastructure side.

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Now, I do believe that Ethereum fits the ecosystem, but not in this speculative phase where we

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need the apps being built on top of Ethereum.

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And so all of these layer twos, the sum of them is going to go up in value because the

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velocity and the GDP, the velocity and the volume of transactions is going to go through

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the roof.

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So if everything that I just said on the work side, you don't use it, you're in trouble

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on the investment side.

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If you don't understand or believe in crypto at this point, so you don't believe in AI or

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crypto. That's a very dangerous place to be folks.

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And a lot of people are in that position.

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Yeah, most are. That's the scary thing. Most are.

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Yeah. And it's, so let's, let's walk through how the order of operations and how you see

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this agentic economy getting imbued with agency to a higher degree with digital money and smart

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contracts, whatever it may be. Because that's, that's one thing I've been asking myself,

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because you mentioned crypto and you have a bunch of different tokens and each of them have a market

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cap and that's the question. Will stable coins win out? I've fallen the Bitcoiner camp so I'm

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a believer that at the end of the day if you're an agent or a human you're going to want the most

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saleable currency with the biggest market cap with the the best money in the digital economy.

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So I think that's Bitcoin.

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To your point about L2s and things like that, it's pretty clear out of the gate stablecoins

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are winning the agentic commerce stuff in the very early days.

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But I wonder, again, going back to what I was saying earlier, do agents prefer Bitcoin?

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And does the Bitcoin stack have the necessary infrastructure to facilitate everything that

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agents are going to want to do, particularly on the payment side?

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There's no way.

359
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So, and again, I have a very unique position on this.

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This is why I love watching the fight between the Bitcoiners and the programmables.

361
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And I want them to try to bucket me.

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Because I'm a, in the long run, a Bitcoin maxi.

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But the path to that point, and what I mean by that is, in the end,

364
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There is only one thing left that I can say with certainty will not have their growth disrupted.

365
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So at the end of the day, all tokens going up in value, anything you can buy as an individual

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investor is about growth, everything. There are a lot of assumptions that come with growth.

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One of them is I mean the main one is how quickly will competition come in to destroy my growth In a world where AI allows things to be instantly replicated that time goes to zero

368
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So if you agree with me that any innovation has a lifespan

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that is far shorter than it used to be,

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you're in a very difficult position

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because the innovator's dilemma is,

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okay, I want to create something.

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This is a great idea.

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Let me create it.

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Let me hope that there's not 8,000 other people

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doing the same idea at the same time, because we all know that there's not a lot of growth.

377
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It's all about competition. And my belief is that with billions of entrepreneurs and trillions of

378
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agents all working together over the course of the next decade, that we will get to creative

379
00:26:42,768 --> 00:26:47,428
destruction, Joseph Schumpeter style, that is instantaneous. So at the end of the day,

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things will grow. But who wins in that case? The entrepreneur wins. If they create something and

381
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they have a community and that token goes from 100 to 1,000, then it's still 1,000 for the rest of

382
00:26:59,068 --> 00:27:05,648
time. Well, it's kind of like Ford stock. So if everything hits that point, why did Ford stock

383
00:27:05,648 --> 00:27:11,048
stop growing? Because of competition eventually. There was a better way to make cars, as we found

384
00:27:11,048 --> 00:27:18,048
out from Tesla and other things. So if you go from 10 to 1,000 and it takes one year, but it never

385
00:27:18,048 --> 00:27:24,908
grows again. Who wins? Only the entrepreneur in the community. That's it. And again, that's all

386
00:27:24,908 --> 00:27:28,408
that happened for that period of time. But then it stops growing. And then what does everyone go?

387
00:27:28,468 --> 00:27:32,488
Well, I got to go find something else to invest in. And this just keeps happening and happening

388
00:27:32,488 --> 00:27:37,348
and happening. Bitcoin to me is the place when that investment stops growing and you have to go

389
00:27:37,348 --> 00:27:42,688
find the next investment. Money goes there. If you've invested in something, you're worried,

390
00:27:42,748 --> 00:27:46,668
because it could go down in value too. Everyone might leave and then all of a sudden it goes down.

391
00:27:47,228 --> 00:27:48,028
Where does your money go?

392
00:27:48,128 --> 00:27:49,988
Well, your money goes to something safer.

393
00:27:50,288 --> 00:27:52,208
That's what happens in the S&P 500.

394
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People invest in companies.

395
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All people do.

396
00:27:56,228 --> 00:28:00,328
But if you ask them where most of their money is, it's not 90% is in Tesla unless they work

397
00:28:00,328 --> 00:28:02,628
for the company and they don't have a choice and they're owning this.

398
00:28:03,028 --> 00:28:07,948
Most of their value is in moving it into a combination of 60, 40 and all these different

399
00:28:07,948 --> 00:28:08,188
things.

400
00:28:08,268 --> 00:28:09,408
Well, that is Bitcoin to me.

401
00:28:09,408 --> 00:28:12,928
A store of value is the diversification you have in your life.

402
00:28:13,088 --> 00:28:13,768
It's your real estate.

403
00:28:13,928 --> 00:28:14,468
It's your bonds.

404
00:28:14,568 --> 00:28:15,128
It's your stocks.

405
00:28:15,228 --> 00:28:15,988
It's your private credits.

406
00:28:15,988 --> 00:28:20,708
all these things that the wealth managers put into, a decade from now, Bitcoin will be the only thing

407
00:28:20,708 --> 00:28:26,548
left. So that's the first thing I want to say is I do believe in that. In terms of the L2s,

408
00:28:26,548 --> 00:28:32,388
I'm focused on two things right now. And I'll give two companies that are straddling the

409
00:28:34,148 --> 00:28:40,228
TradFi world and the crypto world so that everyone can just take these two companies and do the

410
00:28:40,228 --> 00:28:45,108
research. Stripe and Robinhood. Those are the two that matter. Stripe from a stable coin basis. They're

411
00:28:45,108 --> 00:28:46,468
They're a transaction-based company.

412
00:28:47,168 --> 00:28:50,648
If you go through their stack of companies that they've invested in,

413
00:28:50,708 --> 00:28:55,228
starting with Bridge and going through to the end now with OpenRouter,

414
00:28:56,828 --> 00:28:57,848
pretty straightforward.

415
00:28:58,488 --> 00:29:00,248
They're set up for the agentic side.

416
00:29:00,448 --> 00:29:02,028
They're set up for the stablecoin side.

417
00:29:02,108 --> 00:29:06,008
And this was a company that honestly was not a believer in crypto

418
00:29:06,008 --> 00:29:07,528
when you really go back.

419
00:29:07,608 --> 00:29:11,348
They didn't have a focus on it until the Bridge M&A deal.

420
00:29:11,908 --> 00:29:14,068
And I think that closed in February of 2025.

421
00:29:14,068 --> 00:29:17,808
I think we heard about it in October of 2024.

422
00:29:17,808 --> 00:29:21,888
That's a big admission that stablecoins are going to be a big part of the transition side

423
00:29:21,888 --> 00:29:24,348
and they're a company that's straddling both worlds.

424
00:29:24,348 --> 00:29:28,168
And the premium they paid for, they valued Bridge at what, a billion dollars on 10 million

425
00:29:28,168 --> 00:29:29,168
in revenue?

426
00:29:29,168 --> 00:29:30,168
Yep.

427
00:29:30,168 --> 00:29:34,268
So you had to imagine internally they had an aha moment, like, okay, we're going to overpay

428
00:29:34,268 --> 00:29:35,268
for this.

429
00:29:35,268 --> 00:29:36,268
On both sides.

430
00:29:36,268 --> 00:29:41,188
The Bridge, I mean, to have a deal that comes that high, Bridge had no revenues.

431
00:29:41,188 --> 00:29:44,228
I think the company had been around for less than two years.

432
00:29:44,548 --> 00:29:47,408
So when you go through the details of it and you're like,

433
00:29:48,308 --> 00:29:51,848
they negotiated a great deal because they believed in it.

434
00:29:52,328 --> 00:29:53,408
Stripe believed in it.

435
00:29:54,408 --> 00:29:56,468
You end up with Open Router at this point.

436
00:29:56,588 --> 00:29:58,348
Like, why is Stripe getting involved in Open Router?

437
00:29:58,448 --> 00:29:59,708
Why were they trying to buy PayPal?

438
00:29:59,968 --> 00:30:01,148
Like, think about all the things.

439
00:30:01,148 --> 00:30:05,188
They're going through the entire stack of how stable coins fit into this.

440
00:30:05,948 --> 00:30:06,968
And that's the agentic side.

441
00:30:07,208 --> 00:30:08,268
So that's one side.

442
00:30:08,388 --> 00:30:10,368
And then the Robinhood side is tokenization.

443
00:30:10,368 --> 00:30:16,128
and tokenization is huge. It has huge implications. There is nothing more important

444
00:30:16,128 --> 00:30:20,468
to Bitcoin and to the programmables. So the Bitcoiners and the programmables need to just

445
00:30:20,468 --> 00:30:29,008
understand tokenization is the key thing because tokenization unleashes the $900 trillion in two

446
00:30:29,008 --> 00:30:38,268
ways. I wrote a paper this week. You will not have seen it, but this weekend I'll go through it.

447
00:30:38,268 --> 00:30:44,908
it's really a call out to economists. So for everyone who thinks they know how economics run,

448
00:30:44,988 --> 00:30:50,028
if I said to everyone, and this is 99.99% of the people on the planet, this is my own unique,

449
00:30:50,228 --> 00:30:58,208
I've never seen this written anywhere, this is a new thing. How do we stop assets from falling?

450
00:30:58,208 --> 00:31:03,208
We know the fiat system is a Ponzi scheme. We know it's levered. We know there's about 120

451
00:31:03,208 --> 00:31:09,448
20 trillion of physical hard currency in the world that supports 900 trillion in assets.

452
00:31:09,448 --> 00:31:20,044
That is a levered Ponzi scheme Meaning if all of a sudden the 900 trillion tries to come and get liquid so they go to sell in their money to pay off debts whatever it is and we have a version

453
00:31:20,044 --> 00:31:23,584
of the great depression or a mini version of the great financial crisis, or even COVID,

454
00:31:24,284 --> 00:31:27,824
then all the assets fall. And what are the central banks have to do? They have to come

455
00:31:27,824 --> 00:31:32,084
in and print money. And what is money? Well, that's M2. Why do they have to do that?

456
00:31:32,564 --> 00:31:37,024
They have to reliquify. So whenever I hear people in crypto talk about the liquidity cycle,

457
00:31:37,024 --> 00:31:41,344
I'm always sitting there going, when am I going to get my chance to explain to them that that is a myth?

458
00:31:41,824 --> 00:31:44,284
That is when you're in the speculative phase of crypto.

459
00:31:44,644 --> 00:31:50,204
So for everyone out there, it's like it's a liquidity cycle of which almost every Bitcoiner is and almost every person out there.

460
00:31:50,284 --> 00:31:50,824
We need this.

461
00:31:50,904 --> 00:31:52,044
We need the ism to go.

462
00:31:52,124 --> 00:31:53,344
We need all these things to happen.

463
00:31:54,224 --> 00:31:58,924
The reality is for me, we're about to unleash the 900 trillion in liquid form.

464
00:31:59,084 --> 00:32:00,164
That's what tokenization is.

465
00:32:00,684 --> 00:32:01,604
What happens to M2?

466
00:32:03,104 --> 00:32:04,884
The Ponzi scheme then ends.

467
00:32:04,884 --> 00:32:10,604
because now you have $900 trillion of assets that can theoretically buy a coffee.

468
00:32:11,544 --> 00:32:16,784
So nobody needs to sell during these little mini panics because they already have cash.

469
00:32:17,024 --> 00:32:20,484
The reason they were selling their assets is because they needed cash.

470
00:32:20,584 --> 00:32:25,864
Well, now they can post that money or transact that money into whatever debt they have.

471
00:32:25,984 --> 00:32:31,884
The world changes overnight because tokenization increases the M2 in a very different form.

472
00:32:31,884 --> 00:32:33,664
Now, is it as liquid as Bitcoin?

473
00:32:33,824 --> 00:32:34,044
No.

474
00:32:34,044 --> 00:32:40,524
But can you transfer at some price a house instantaneously into this?

475
00:32:40,764 --> 00:32:41,664
Yeah, pretty close.

476
00:32:41,824 --> 00:32:42,404
I know this.

477
00:32:42,644 --> 00:32:43,844
It's not going to take a lot of time.

478
00:32:44,204 --> 00:32:47,164
So that's where the tokenization side has a huge impact.

479
00:32:47,384 --> 00:32:53,584
So what Vlad and Robinhood and others, but Vlad in particular, with the Robinhood chain,

480
00:32:53,764 --> 00:32:56,984
this is all preparation for what's going to happen with tokenization.

481
00:32:56,984 --> 00:33:03,424
So those are L2s, which, again, increased the $900 trillion to come into Bitcoin.

482
00:33:04,044 --> 00:33:06,884
It wasn't going to happen without the programmables.

483
00:33:07,404 --> 00:33:12,504
So for every Bitcoiner who thought eventually these incumbents, as Michael Saylor said, which

484
00:33:12,504 --> 00:33:16,424
I agree with, you don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you.

485
00:33:16,804 --> 00:33:18,764
If you're wealthy, you don't need Bitcoin.

486
00:33:18,884 --> 00:33:19,904
You don't need to believe in it.

487
00:33:20,244 --> 00:33:23,144
And so that money needs to come over to drive it to a million dollars.

488
00:33:23,284 --> 00:33:25,064
Sorry, everyone, but that's what needs to happen.

489
00:33:25,224 --> 00:33:26,264
That's what happened with gold.

490
00:33:26,384 --> 00:33:28,744
Whenever there's a panic, people move into gold to hide their money.

491
00:33:29,244 --> 00:33:32,464
They need to believe their fiat assets are not going to work, but that group already

492
00:33:32,464 --> 00:33:33,284
believes in gold.

493
00:33:33,284 --> 00:33:37,844
You need them to believe in this and this whole we're gonna give the money to our kids and they're gonna do a thing

494
00:33:37,844 --> 00:33:40,524
That's gonna take too long, especially in the world. I believe in where nobody dies

495
00:33:40,524 --> 00:33:46,784
You don't want that to be the thing you actually want the money to move over there because of greed and that means that the fiat

496
00:33:46,784 --> 00:33:53,144
Assets become liquid and everyone goes hey wait this private credit fund I have that I can't get out of it's now liquid

497
00:33:53,144 --> 00:33:54,864
It's just at a 20% discount

498
00:33:54,864 --> 00:33:59,204
Do you know how many people would sign up right now for their pride to get their money back in private credit?

499
00:33:59,204 --> 00:34:04,264
how many retail people would want their money back and say, I'm never doing this again.

500
00:34:04,704 --> 00:34:08,484
Give it to me. That's what's going to happen with tokenization. Yeah. You're just running

501
00:34:08,484 --> 00:34:12,484
the calculus. Okay. If I take a 20% haircut and put it in Bitcoin, is Bitcoin going to go up?

502
00:34:12,684 --> 00:34:18,224
Exactly. Yeah. So freaks, this was brought to you by our good friends, the Bitcoin team at

503
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504
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505
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is one facet. Spending, receiving is another facet. I've been working towards this for 17 years

506
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507
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509
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516
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517
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authorizing. So together, Cash App, Square, and BitKey are helping make Bitcoin easier to earn,

518
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save, spend, and secure. It's a simple idea. Bitcoin works when people can actually use it

519
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in the way that they want. That's Bitcoin at Block. What's up, Freaks? This episode is brought

520
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to you by Simple Mining. I'm sure many of you listening to this right now own Bitcoin and own

521
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it the same way. You go into an exchange, you buy it, sweep it to the cold storage, maybe keep it on

522
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the exchange, and you pay full price. There's a smaller group of business owners, family offices,

523
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527
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528
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529
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530
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532
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536
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before deploying capital. You can access it for free at simple mining.io slash tftc. That's

537
00:36:55,160 --> 00:37:07,960
simple mining.io slash tftc. I was for a while, like a real world tech asset tokenization bear

538
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:14,100
never really made sense to me. But then you think of stocks and how that's all settled

539
00:37:14,100 --> 00:37:22,780
to the DTCC and it's like, okay, the guardrails of these digital assets make a lot more sense

540
00:37:22,780 --> 00:37:28,480
for this. It makes it way more efficient. And as we're going through this discussion,

541
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:32,940
the one question I have, whether it's the Schumpter's creative destruction happening

542
00:37:32,940 --> 00:37:37,940
instantaneously or the ability to get liquidity for-

543
00:37:37,940 --> 00:37:42,760
Before you get off of that, I just want to make sure that people, since you didn't

544
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:49,800
see how RWAs would work in this. I just want you to use the house example. Do you own a house?

545
00:37:49,980 --> 00:37:59,240
Yes. Okay. So when you buy a house, that process is painful and it's long. Once you have it,

546
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:04,840
if your house goes up and doubles in value over the next six months and you have tremendous equity,

547
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:08,860
which is where most of the country, people right now are trapped in their homes.

548
00:38:08,860 --> 00:38:14,000
they're trapped why are they trapped because they don't want to have to reset their mortgage at

549
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:19,440
higher levels i don't understand how people don't realize that the speed of buying a house or selling

550
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:26,580
a house if you want to sell that house what better way to sell it than to open it up to all eight

551
00:38:26,580 --> 00:38:31,940
billion people on the planet to buy it like i don't that that's there why wouldn't you want to

552
00:38:31,940 --> 00:38:36,700
sell a house and have it sold in a matter of minutes as opposed to the process that goes on

553
00:38:36,700 --> 00:38:51,880
And if people don't believe a house can sell in a minute, once our digital agents are there and AI agents do all of the paperwork and everything there and they have all the background check and you're identified based on your credit and your collateral and it's all liquid, it's all on chain, everything goes immediate.

554
00:38:52,240 --> 00:38:55,320
So that might take another decade, whatever the case is.

555
00:38:55,320 --> 00:39:04,340
But when you're investing in something, and I'll use the stupid comment that Jason Kalkanis made on, you know, dead cat bounce and Bitcoin and this on that.

556
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:10,140
I literally can't believe that people don't realize that by the time you invest in something that is obvious.

557
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,460
The value has gone up 50 times.

558
00:39:13,940 --> 00:39:17,600
You can only invest in things when they're not obvious.

559
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:32,440
What I'm talking about right now to someone who believes in crypto but didn't see the value that tokenization RWA's would bring, if one person does it and says, I sold my house in a matter of minutes, far higher price than you did.

560
00:39:32,500 --> 00:39:34,420
I had 8 billion bids on it.

561
00:39:35,240 --> 00:39:37,260
That will change everyone doing it.

562
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,900
So, again, it'll speed it up because money makes people do things.

563
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:42,960
Cost reduction makes people do things.

564
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:49,240
But being trapped in your house with that owner's equity right now, not able to get out, everyone would sign up for RWAs right now.

565
00:39:50,100 --> 00:39:52,220
And so in that example, somebody has to live in the house.

566
00:39:52,300 --> 00:39:56,840
But when you say that, you're basically just selling an equity portion or getting a HELOC, essentially.

567
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:01,940
Yeah, if you want to still be in there, you're able to get cash for it by just raising it.

568
00:40:02,060 --> 00:40:03,200
And it goes further than that.

569
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:08,060
If you're a small business that is in a and I have a friend who's in this situation.

570
00:40:08,260 --> 00:40:11,580
So he has a business he bought in on Long Island.

571
00:40:11,580 --> 00:40:13,380
Are you from? No, you're not from Long Island.

572
00:40:13,660 --> 00:40:14,000
I'm from Philly.

573
00:40:14,220 --> 00:40:14,640
Philly, yeah.

574
00:40:14,720 --> 00:40:16,580
I know you're in Philly, Giants.

575
00:40:16,700 --> 00:40:17,580
I know it was a hard night last week.

576
00:40:17,580 --> 00:40:18,500
No, no, no. I'm a Jets fan.

577
00:40:18,540 --> 00:40:19,460
It was a hard night on Sunday.

578
00:40:21,500 --> 00:40:23,700
It's been a hard life, but I'm done.

579
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,040
Next one, so I don't really care.

580
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:28,500
Sixers will get there at some point.

581
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,140
This will be the most disappointing year ever.

582
00:40:30,380 --> 00:40:31,320
You have everything coming in,

583
00:40:31,420 --> 00:40:32,880
so this will be a very disappointing year.

584
00:40:33,140 --> 00:40:34,560
So let's go back to the equation.

585
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:36,800
My friend owns a beverage business

586
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:37,920
that he bought a long time ago.

587
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:39,980
I don't know if you've heard,

588
00:40:40,060 --> 00:40:41,240
but kids don't drink beer.

589
00:40:41,580 --> 00:40:42,920
He's not allowed to sell liquor.

590
00:40:43,140 --> 00:40:44,640
It's like a horrible situation.

591
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:45,700
We were just talking about it.

592
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,760
So let's assume his business is bringing in very little cash.

593
00:40:49,900 --> 00:40:54,580
But at the same time, he has a value of real estate that's worth $5 million.

594
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,040
So his revenues have gone down.

595
00:40:57,100 --> 00:41:01,420
He's trying to make payments because he has a belief that the business is going to grow again.

596
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:05,360
And he's going to be able to sell something else because he has a license that starts in a year.

597
00:41:05,380 --> 00:41:06,960
But he doesn't have the money to keep going.

598
00:41:07,620 --> 00:41:09,820
So either he has to go out and borrow money.

599
00:41:09,820 --> 00:41:11,140
and the banks are gonna be like,

600
00:41:11,220 --> 00:41:13,720
well, you don't have any revenues coming in.

601
00:41:13,940 --> 00:41:15,100
Like they're really down.

602
00:41:15,300 --> 00:41:16,620
We can't invest in this business.

603
00:41:16,940 --> 00:41:19,920
Or he could just quickly go in and go,

604
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,780
I just need money for the next six months.

605
00:41:21,780 --> 00:41:23,920
So I wanna sell off a piece of the business.

606
00:41:24,940 --> 00:41:26,820
Token, I wanna sell off a piece of it.

607
00:41:26,900 --> 00:41:28,760
He can come back and buy it in six months

608
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:30,260
until the revenue comes in.

609
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,720
So everything happens in a different form.

610
00:41:32,780 --> 00:41:34,460
And again, when you wanna go borrow the money,

611
00:41:34,540 --> 00:41:36,400
you have to leave your business.

612
00:41:36,620 --> 00:41:37,900
You have to go out, go to the banks.

613
00:41:37,980 --> 00:41:39,160
You have to go sell them on this.

614
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:39,960
You have to prepare all

615
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:45,697
these documents, you have to go to seven different banks. This is all done via crypto. So to me,

616
00:41:45,697 --> 00:41:50,657
because it's programmable and because agents can do all the work, that's where it becomes aligned.

617
00:41:50,817 --> 00:41:57,017
Without crypto, agents can't replace that function. That's the part that becomes important in this

618
00:41:57,017 --> 00:42:01,037
whole thing. Without agents, the human couldn't use the crypto.

619
00:42:01,217 --> 00:42:01,637
Couldn't coordinate.

620
00:42:01,837 --> 00:42:04,817
Exactly. So agents change the whole mechanism.

621
00:42:04,817 --> 00:42:05,817
Yeah.

622
00:42:05,817 --> 00:42:13,317
No, I'm thinking of just pure Bitcoin collateralized loans as the nation example of this.

623
00:42:13,317 --> 00:42:19,137
The ability for me to get a strike, post Bitcoin, get cash, get to my bank account within literally

624
00:42:19,137 --> 00:42:22,397
minutes is incredibly valuable.

625
00:42:22,397 --> 00:42:24,837
And that's the way to be is everything becomes liquid and you go through.

626
00:42:24,837 --> 00:42:27,157
Some things will be more liquid than other things.

627
00:42:27,157 --> 00:42:30,057
In the case of the real estate, maybe it takes a day to go through this, but that's better

628
00:42:30,057 --> 00:42:31,977
than 60 days.

629
00:42:31,977 --> 00:42:33,637
It's better than having a VIG on it,

630
00:42:33,637 --> 00:42:34,937
to where you gotta pay all this stuff.

631
00:42:34,937 --> 00:42:36,237
There's a whole bunch of different ways

632
00:42:36,237 --> 00:42:38,317
where you're monetizing something that's already worked out.

633
00:42:38,317 --> 00:42:40,137
And then you have the agents construct the strategy

634
00:42:40,137 --> 00:42:41,917
for the best way.

635
00:42:41,917 --> 00:42:42,757
Yeah, that's the-

636
00:42:42,757 --> 00:42:44,637
The manage leverage and payback period.

637
00:42:44,637 --> 00:42:46,737
Look at your, like, all right, here's the best solution

638
00:42:46,737 --> 00:42:49,137
for you considering your current state.

639
00:42:49,137 --> 00:42:53,557
The analogy for everyone to recognize is

640
00:42:53,557 --> 00:42:55,997
Uber can't work without the smartphone.

641
00:42:57,137 --> 00:42:59,577
Uber can't work without the app store.

642
00:42:59,577 --> 00:43:02,697
You can't carry a laptop around and be doing it.

643
00:43:02,697 --> 00:43:07,157
Like you needed to have the phone.

644
00:43:07,157 --> 00:43:10,297
Agents are the use case for connecting to humans.

645
00:43:10,297 --> 00:43:13,637
So the problem is people don't think of agents the same way they think of apps.

646
00:43:13,637 --> 00:43:19,857
That's why this concept of L2s is very similar to the taxi side.

647
00:43:19,857 --> 00:43:21,517
Like there were already taxis.

648
00:43:21,517 --> 00:43:23,557
Why do we need Uber?

649
00:43:23,557 --> 00:43:25,957
And the question is, everyone should ask, why do we need Uber?

650
00:43:25,957 --> 00:43:28,817
Well, initially it was cheaper, significantly cheaper.

651
00:43:28,817 --> 00:43:32,237
Eventually they merged together and the cost of Uber went up.

652
00:43:32,237 --> 00:43:33,957
Okay, why did the cost go up?

653
00:43:33,957 --> 00:43:34,797
What happened?

654
00:43:34,797 --> 00:43:35,677
Was it regulation?

655
00:43:35,677 --> 00:43:36,797
Was it the business?

656
00:43:36,797 --> 00:43:38,137
Whatever the case was.

657
00:43:39,137 --> 00:43:43,577
The agents are the facing side between the humans

658
00:43:44,477 --> 00:43:46,257
and the end transactions that go on.

659
00:43:46,257 --> 00:43:48,677
So whether it's stable coins or whether it's tokenization,

660
00:43:48,677 --> 00:43:50,237
they need agents to be able to do this

661
00:43:50,237 --> 00:43:52,597
because humans were never gonna be able to get on in wallets.

662
00:43:52,597 --> 00:43:55,897
That's the thing I think everyone in crypto underestimated,

663
00:43:55,897 --> 00:43:59,917
which I still say publicly is an issue that can only be solved by agents,

664
00:44:00,577 --> 00:44:02,677
it's not easy to set up all these wallets.

665
00:44:02,817 --> 00:44:05,257
It's not easy to go in there and just create them.

666
00:44:05,897 --> 00:44:08,657
And I guess the side that's good is I'd rather it be difficult

667
00:44:08,657 --> 00:44:12,217
because it also means there's a lot of guardrails that are in there

668
00:44:12,217 --> 00:44:15,137
to protect privacy and to make it difficult for hackings.

669
00:44:15,137 --> 00:44:18,037
And the more hackings that happen, which are happening a lot more,

670
00:44:18,497 --> 00:44:20,957
I think you start pricing out the weaker wallets

671
00:44:20,957 --> 00:44:23,137
and the agents know not to go to them.

672
00:44:23,357 --> 00:44:25,077
So then the agents end up at the better ones.

673
00:44:25,077 --> 00:44:32,037
You have to understand like the agents are the ones that reduce the hackings and reduce the vulnerabilities by knowing which ones have already done.

674
00:44:32,097 --> 00:44:35,957
And when they start making the decision, you start having less problems, too.

675
00:44:36,597 --> 00:44:41,137
Yeah, there was a BitDevs developer meeting here, meet up here last night.

676
00:44:41,137 --> 00:44:43,017
And that was obviously in Bitcoin.

677
00:44:43,157 --> 00:44:50,417
I think Bitcoin is the ecosystem has been the first target of AI initiated hackings.

678
00:44:51,577 --> 00:44:53,417
And they talk a lot about it.

679
00:44:53,697 --> 00:44:53,937
Yeah.

680
00:44:53,937 --> 00:45:09,577
I mean, it's been, because you had Rob Hamilton from Anchor Watch who basically with a group of other developers when the cold card wallet had an entropy bug that was being exploited by AI attacks.

681
00:45:09,957 --> 00:45:18,797
They said, okay, if this is happening to cold card, which many people thought myself included was the gold standard of Bitcoin hardware wallets.

682
00:45:18,797 --> 00:45:19,877
Who else can this happen?

683
00:45:19,877 --> 00:45:37,177
So they basically created a harness to go inspect the code of every Bitcoin project that they could find a GitHub for and found hundreds of vulnerabilities within days and responsibly disclosed to many of the projects that were patched.

684
00:45:37,177 --> 00:45:42,417
Point being is we're still at the early stage where humans are fallible.

685
00:45:42,417 --> 00:45:46,977
humans. We're finding out in Bitcoin because Bitcoin is the first easy target because it's

686
00:45:46,977 --> 00:45:54,137
a bear asset if you get it. It's hard to get back. And we're hardening the Bitcoin ecosystem

687
00:45:54,137 --> 00:45:59,477
right now because of that. And many projects did get hacked over the last six weeks, but many others

688
00:45:59,477 --> 00:46:06,237
found critical vulnerabilities first, patched them. And the system overall has been more robust.

689
00:46:06,237 --> 00:46:12,197
We're in this window where the pain is extremely, extremely hard, extremely painful.

690
00:46:12,497 --> 00:46:18,177
But I think a year from now, the ecosystem will be more robust and secure than it ever has been because of this.

691
00:46:18,217 --> 00:46:26,737
And it's funny, agents are doing the work of inspecting the code bases, presenting patches and helping to secure all this.

692
00:46:26,737 --> 00:46:35,977
But going back to the rate of destruction, you're going to have incredible liquidity,

693
00:46:36,277 --> 00:46:41,097
you can tap into a market of 8 billion people to sell assets whenever.

694
00:46:41,257 --> 00:46:42,537
How do you have stability in this world?

695
00:46:42,777 --> 00:46:46,617
What does stability look like when all this is going on?

696
00:46:47,897 --> 00:47:02,513
The way you describe it I like all right it sounds awesome but it also seems discombobulating I think this is the human tendency If I asked you when the last time things were stable you know when they were for everyone

697
00:47:02,973 --> 00:47:05,953
It was when you were a kid, and it's because you didn't know any better.

698
00:47:06,813 --> 00:47:08,613
You have more to lose when you get older.

699
00:47:09,033 --> 00:47:10,853
You are getting closer to death.

700
00:47:11,233 --> 00:47:15,553
Psychologically, you're on a journey, and you have kids, or you're thinking about having kids.

701
00:47:15,553 --> 00:47:20,713
And as someone who has four, I can just tell you.

702
00:47:21,813 --> 00:47:23,973
When my first child was born.

703
00:47:26,313 --> 00:47:35,273
I went from feeling indestructible, like I I don't care about death, like I'm not frightened by dying when I die.

704
00:47:35,773 --> 00:47:36,873
Hopefully I've lived a good life.

705
00:47:36,933 --> 00:47:38,393
I can only control what I can.

706
00:47:38,473 --> 00:47:39,893
And so I try to be in shape.

707
00:47:39,933 --> 00:47:40,713
I try to eat well.

708
00:47:41,013 --> 00:47:41,893
I try to work out.

709
00:47:41,893 --> 00:47:46,273
I try to surround myself with people who bring me joy, all these different things that I've learned over life.

710
00:47:46,473 --> 00:47:53,373
But when you have that first child, you're vulnerable because now your job is to protect that child.

711
00:47:53,453 --> 00:47:56,933
And it's an instinct that has clearly been handed down biologically to where.

712
00:47:57,333 --> 00:48:03,773
And I remember feeling it like I drove home from the hospital and I was all of a sudden now as someone who never worried about driving, I was like someone going to hit me.

713
00:48:03,853 --> 00:48:08,733
I got on a plane. I was worried about the plane crashing like these instincts start to hit you.

714
00:48:08,733 --> 00:48:15,993
So I think it's normal for people to question how change is going to not be disruptive.

715
00:48:16,833 --> 00:48:21,353
And I don't think humans can possibly be in a world where they all agree.

716
00:48:21,553 --> 00:48:30,313
I do believe that when you watch Star Trek and these sci-fi things, the number one take out of the future is that we're still fighting wars and we're still battling for things.

717
00:48:30,613 --> 00:48:32,173
We're just changing on this.

718
00:48:32,173 --> 00:48:39,233
I think that's an animal instinct that goes on in every single place and people do it for reasons that we can't have.

719
00:48:39,333 --> 00:48:41,173
So it's never going to be stable, my friend.

720
00:48:42,573 --> 00:48:43,453
All right, freaks.

721
00:48:43,613 --> 00:48:45,253
You know, I don't take sponsor money from products.

722
00:48:45,293 --> 00:48:45,993
I wouldn't use myself.

723
00:48:46,033 --> 00:48:46,593
So listen up.

724
00:48:46,713 --> 00:48:51,153
The Avon Bitcoin Visa card is one of the most interesting things I've seen in the Bitcoin lending space in a long time.

725
00:48:51,353 --> 00:48:51,893
Here's the deal.

726
00:48:52,093 --> 00:48:57,173
You can get a line of credit up to a million dollars backed by your Bitcoin without selling a single sat.

727
00:48:57,293 --> 00:48:59,713
No games, no annual fees, no minimum draws.

728
00:49:00,293 --> 00:49:04,293
And your Bitcoin is custody by Bitco, one of the most trusted names in digital asset security.

729
00:49:04,633 --> 00:49:07,493
AVEN never lends it out. There's no rehypothecation. You stay in control.

730
00:49:08,033 --> 00:49:13,393
You can lock in a fixed rate for up to 10 years. 10 years, that's 10 times longer than most lenders

731
00:49:13,393 --> 00:49:20,133
out there. Or go interest only for up to five years. Rates start at 8.99% APR. For a product

732
00:49:20,133 --> 00:49:23,993
that lets you keep your stack and still access liquidity, it's hard to beat. On top of this,

733
00:49:24,533 --> 00:49:27,853
that's what? You also get 2% unlimited cash back every time you use the card.

734
00:49:28,313 --> 00:49:29,733
Spend fiat, keep your Bitcoin.

735
00:49:30,253 --> 00:49:31,093
That's the whole game.

736
00:49:31,533 --> 00:49:34,893
If you've been stacking for years and need liquidity without triggering a taxable event,

737
00:49:35,273 --> 00:49:36,913
this is worth a serious look.

738
00:49:36,913 --> 00:49:39,493
Go to aven.com slash Bitcoin.

739
00:49:39,733 --> 00:49:43,133
That's A-V-E-N dot com slash Bitcoin.

740
00:49:43,573 --> 00:49:44,093
Check it out.

741
00:49:44,413 --> 00:49:44,933
Freaks, look at me.

742
00:49:44,973 --> 00:49:45,413
I'm glowing.

743
00:49:45,733 --> 00:49:48,033
I've got like an angel's halo going around me.

744
00:49:48,253 --> 00:49:49,013
You know why that is?

745
00:49:49,033 --> 00:49:49,853
I feel good.

746
00:49:49,913 --> 00:49:50,793
I feel taken care of.

747
00:49:50,833 --> 00:49:52,553
I feel blessed, healthy, happy.

748
00:49:52,833 --> 00:49:54,253
And that is because I'm a CrowdHealth member.

749
00:49:54,533 --> 00:49:57,473
My family and I have been CrowdHealth members for five years now.

750
00:49:57,473 --> 00:50:01,273
Literally this month, five years ago, we joined CrowdHealth. We've had two babies. We've had

751
00:50:01,273 --> 00:50:06,073
multiple health events and we're never going back to health insurance. CrowdHealth is crowdfunded

752
00:50:06,073 --> 00:50:11,233
healthcare. So you sign up for CrowdHealth, you pay a monthly fee, you help out with other people's

753
00:50:11,233 --> 00:50:16,873
bills. And it's significantly cheaper than health insurance. We were on COBRA as a family of three

754
00:50:16,873 --> 00:50:23,073
when I left my last job before I went full-time to CFTC, went on the CrowdHealth. Now as a family

755
00:50:23,073 --> 00:50:29,053
of five, we pay, I believe, $700 a month. It's significantly cheaper. They're going to negotiate

756
00:50:29,053 --> 00:50:34,253
prices lower for you. They've consistently negotiated healthcare prices as much as 50,

757
00:50:34,353 --> 00:50:39,953
60, 80%. In many cases, they help out with babies. If you have a pregnancy, you pay the first $3,000

758
00:50:39,953 --> 00:50:46,113
and the crowd covers the rest. If you have a regular health event, you pay $500 and the crowd

759
00:50:46,113 --> 00:50:51,413
pays the rest. Go to joincrowdhealth.com. Sign up today. Use the code TFTC. Opt out of health

760
00:50:51,413 --> 00:50:56,173
insurance. I'm an uninsured baby and I love it. Use the code TFTC at joincrowdhealth.com and you'll

761
00:50:56,173 --> 00:51:01,553
get $99 a month for the first three months that you're on the CrowdHealth platform in the community.

762
00:51:01,813 --> 00:51:06,333
Big winners. You found sovereign money. Now find sovereign health and sovereign healthcare.

763
00:51:06,693 --> 00:51:10,793
Yeah, the pace of the volatility seems to be increasing. And bringing this back to

764
00:51:10,793 --> 00:51:16,413
the beginning of the conversation, we were mentioning the slowdown. That's one thing I

765
00:51:16,413 --> 00:51:23,593
forgot to bring up but the administration everything we've talked about really is

766
00:51:23,593 --> 00:51:29,993
somewhat dependent on the at least for americans for the u.s government to be to be on board with

767
00:51:29,993 --> 00:51:34,553
this and it seems like the trump administration is on board not only with the ai stuff but

768
00:51:34,553 --> 00:51:40,313
crypto as well clarity act failed but the sec the cftc the occ are rule making anyway they're not

769
00:51:40,313 --> 00:51:46,173
waiting for a bill and then on the slowdown news everybody was worried like oh gosh we're going to

770
00:51:46,173 --> 00:51:47,873
and then Trump comes out with a post like,

771
00:51:47,873 --> 00:51:50,453
no, we're not slowing down, actually accelerate,

772
00:51:50,453 --> 00:51:52,553
lean in, stop being a pansy.

773
00:51:52,553 --> 00:51:55,673
And I think, love them or hate them,

774
00:51:57,393 --> 00:51:59,693
I think at this particular juncture for US history,

775
00:51:59,693 --> 00:52:11,129
it important that this administration has this purview and they enabling this How important do you think that is I think it important but I don think

776
00:52:11,129 --> 00:52:14,109
I think the voters voted for this.

777
00:52:14,769 --> 00:52:18,009
I think crypto was a major part of his win.

778
00:52:18,809 --> 00:52:20,969
I don't think it gets brought up enough

779
00:52:20,969 --> 00:52:24,949
as to the impact it had on the election, but it did.

780
00:52:25,109 --> 00:52:26,069
I mean, the numbers are there.

781
00:52:26,169 --> 00:52:27,009
The stats are there.

782
00:52:27,009 --> 00:52:32,289
You know, crypto packs that put money into elections had a huge success.

783
00:52:33,189 --> 00:52:43,609
And so I think by bringing in a treasury secretary who quotes Satoshian, who's pro Bitcoin, to bring in a Fed chair who's pro Bitcoin.

784
00:52:44,609 --> 00:52:50,549
I think when you go throughout the administration, he tried to bring on people that were pro this.

785
00:52:50,549 --> 00:52:56,849
And whatever his rationale behind it is, I didn't get the impression that he had a vision for it.

786
00:52:56,849 --> 00:53:00,009
He just knew that the people wanted it.

787
00:53:00,609 --> 00:53:05,309
He did have a belief in the distribution of wealth as a major issue in the country and

788
00:53:05,309 --> 00:53:06,369
bringing back manufacturing.

789
00:53:06,889 --> 00:53:13,969
Now, if you think about what's happening, that is what's happening, meaning we do have

790
00:53:13,969 --> 00:53:16,669
a lot of jobs being created in the construction side.

791
00:53:16,729 --> 00:53:20,529
The middle part of the country is benefiting from the data centers and from the gas and

792
00:53:20,529 --> 00:53:22,189
from all of the things that go on.

793
00:53:22,929 --> 00:53:26,629
I'm a big believer that entrepreneurs are going to have a huge impact.

794
00:53:26,629 --> 00:53:35,289
If I could be long something right now, which doesn't exist, I want to be long the 200 million entrepreneurs that are happening and coming in the country.

795
00:53:35,409 --> 00:53:36,389
I want an index of that.

796
00:53:36,469 --> 00:53:37,669
I don't want the S&P 500.

797
00:53:37,909 --> 00:53:41,169
I want this AI native world of entrepreneurs.

798
00:53:41,389 --> 00:53:42,449
I don't want the Russell 2000.

799
00:53:42,769 --> 00:53:43,709
I don't want any of that stuff.

800
00:53:43,769 --> 00:53:44,889
I don't want public companies.

801
00:53:45,329 --> 00:53:47,689
I actually believe that the growth is coming.

802
00:53:47,809 --> 00:53:48,969
Now, where do I play that?

803
00:53:49,009 --> 00:53:50,729
I play that through crypto and I play it through AI.

804
00:53:51,309 --> 00:53:55,509
So those are the ways that I play that situation right now.

805
00:53:55,509 --> 00:54:01,869
So rather than get into whether the administration got lucky, whether they made, whether they,

806
00:54:02,169 --> 00:54:05,189
the voters did it, I think the reality is that it's happening.

807
00:54:05,649 --> 00:54:13,649
And they've, by speeding up the AI side, by making it more tax efficient for the hyperscalers

808
00:54:13,649 --> 00:54:18,069
to take out the debt and be able to depreciate over a longer time period was a huge thing.

809
00:54:18,509 --> 00:54:20,309
It accelerated AI development.

810
00:54:20,929 --> 00:54:23,849
Crypto is directly connected to when we got the AI development.

811
00:54:24,829 --> 00:54:28,149
Leopold wrote in situational awareness, which came out after.

812
00:54:29,689 --> 00:54:32,069
No, it came out before Trump was elected.

813
00:54:32,249 --> 00:54:35,529
So it came out during the election period and only a couple of months.

814
00:54:35,589 --> 00:54:36,829
I think it came out June of 24.

815
00:54:37,149 --> 00:54:40,389
Trump spoke at the Bitcoin event in, was it Nashville in July?

816
00:54:40,589 --> 00:54:41,629
So it was before that.

817
00:54:41,929 --> 00:54:46,049
If you go back and look at that point, Leopold thought we would hit the point we're at now

818
00:54:46,049 --> 00:54:47,329
sometime in 2027.

819
00:54:47,529 --> 00:54:53,349
The fact that we hit it in 2026 to me is a direct correlation with the administration

820
00:54:53,349 --> 00:54:58,429
saying that AI is a focus, reducing the timeline on things, and basically giving people the rules

821
00:54:58,429 --> 00:55:03,249
that for the next four years, you can run as fast as you want on AI and you have my blessing.

822
00:55:03,689 --> 00:55:09,029
For the crypto crew, it's the same thing. The Genius Act was critical. As much as clarity is

823
00:55:09,029 --> 00:55:13,049
important, like you said, you can kind of get around that, which they've gotten. And then once

824
00:55:13,049 --> 00:55:17,469
it's going, tokenization and stable coins and everything accelerating, which is going to be

825
00:55:17,469 --> 00:55:21,389
accelerated by the agents, by the time we get to the next election, it'll again be a focal point.

826
00:55:21,389 --> 00:55:27,289
And no one's going to want it to go backwards if it's reducing the cost of people to live their lives.

827
00:55:27,329 --> 00:55:28,509
And I think that's what's going to happen.

828
00:55:28,589 --> 00:55:29,949
One more thing that fits in with it.

829
00:55:30,289 --> 00:55:36,969
So when we get back to the stability side, it kind of directly comes back to the polarizing situation of of of politics.

830
00:55:37,769 --> 00:55:42,789
Like I said, there's a polarizing situation inside crypto, the Bitcoiners and the programmables.

831
00:55:42,789 --> 00:55:44,509
And I wish everyone could all get along together.

832
00:55:44,509 --> 00:55:46,969
But for some reason, I'm Bitcoin podcast.

833
00:55:47,309 --> 00:55:49,469
And, well, we don't really say crypto.

834
00:55:49,569 --> 00:55:50,209
We don't get involved.

835
00:55:50,209 --> 00:55:52,269
that I'm like, I don't understand this whole thing.

836
00:55:52,309 --> 00:55:53,409
I'm new to the party, guys.

837
00:55:53,449 --> 00:55:55,449
I'm looking at this as everyone's going to win.

838
00:55:55,889 --> 00:55:57,909
This fits back into the question of stability.

839
00:55:58,169 --> 00:56:02,969
If I said to you, you're going to have chaos that's been just like the last 50 years.

840
00:56:03,449 --> 00:56:06,329
It won't be World War II and it won't be the Great Depression.

841
00:56:06,329 --> 00:56:10,929
But what you've gone through the last 30 years is going to continue,

842
00:56:11,009 --> 00:56:12,609
that chaos that you describe it as.

843
00:56:13,229 --> 00:56:15,909
But here's the benefit that comes with you signing up for that.

844
00:56:16,509 --> 00:56:18,189
You're going to live for another 300 years.

845
00:56:18,189 --> 00:56:26,529
If that's what happens, like, isn't that kind of the quid pro quo of like, you got to give up

846
00:56:26,529 --> 00:56:30,409
something, you're going to get something. I think when people look at what the administration has

847
00:56:30,409 --> 00:56:35,769
been able to do, I think you have to put in the context of if you believe AI is going to solve

848
00:56:35,769 --> 00:56:40,489
lots of problems and be dangerous at the same time and create lots of chaos. If the end result

849
00:56:40,489 --> 00:56:45,289
is living a lot longer, a healthier life, being able to see your kids grow up, that's a pretty good,

850
00:56:45,289 --> 00:56:49,269
you know, sign on the dotted line with the devil as to the outcome. That's good.

851
00:56:49,489 --> 00:56:50,869
You think we're going to live to be 300?

852
00:56:53,409 --> 00:57:00,749
Marty, you can go back and read writings from me for a long time. Do I believe in the exponential

853
00:57:00,749 --> 00:57:07,049
innovation and the solution of people not aging? Absolutely. It's a math problem. So do I think

854
00:57:07,049 --> 00:57:12,029
300, 150, whatever the case is, it's hard for people to imagine. But if I would have told you

855
00:57:12,029 --> 00:57:30,166
that we have smartphones in our hands 25 years ago doing the stuff they doing If I told you that we be solving math problems that Einstein couldn solve and that have been around for 150 to 175 years in a matter of 88 hours do I think we going to solve the world greatest

856
00:57:30,166 --> 00:57:33,526
science problems? Yeah. What is the difference between saying we're going to have people living

857
00:57:33,526 --> 00:57:38,486
on Mars and living to 300? Where does it get too crazy? So yes, I do.

858
00:57:38,486 --> 00:57:44,166
The wild world. Where are the bottlenecks? Obviously compute, we think compute usage,

859
00:57:44,166 --> 00:57:48,406
it already is going up exponentially. We're only on the cusp. Muse just dropped. I think that's

860
00:57:48,406 --> 00:57:56,086
going to have massive, it's going to lead to a massive growth in demand for these tokens.

861
00:57:57,126 --> 00:58:02,886
Is that the biggest bottleneck right now? The biggest bottleneck is humans. You said it.

862
00:58:02,886 --> 00:58:08,166
Everyone's worried the politics are making it a major issue. The data centers can't be happening

863
00:58:08,166 --> 00:58:13,226
because they make up stuff about them and don't actually provide people with the right facts.

864
00:58:13,846 --> 00:58:18,626
Because the Chinese, the Russians, the Iranians, and anyone that's at either war or in competition

865
00:58:18,626 --> 00:58:23,626
with us wants our politics to be polarizing can just put something, you know, can take the

866
00:58:23,626 --> 00:58:29,986
anthropic guy that worked there for six weeks and get him 170 million views on X, which is clearly

867
00:58:29,986 --> 00:58:36,826
part politics, part geopolitics in terms of the ability of making this viral. Humans are the

868
00:58:36,826 --> 00:58:42,006
biggest friction and physics are number two, but they're, they go hand in hand. And so this is

869
00:58:42,006 --> 00:58:48,986
going to, in a good way, this will have it go somewhat slower because I think the humans are

870
00:58:48,986 --> 00:58:53,766
doing the right thing with the pause in AI, not, not that they're pausing the development,

871
00:58:54,686 --> 00:59:00,486
but the pause in releasing them. And I think one thing everyone should think about, and this is

872
00:59:00,486 --> 00:59:07,446
important for fiat assets in general, meaning for stocks. Alex Karp was on CNBC last week,

873
00:59:08,486 --> 00:59:14,406
and he talked about the fact it's just a matter of time within the next year that OpenAI is

874
00:59:15,286 --> 00:59:22,406
nationalized. Now, I've said this publicly too, where not specifically them, but I've said to

875
00:59:22,406 --> 00:59:26,726
investors and I've said it in writings that it's like, where is the line between something that's

876
00:59:26,726 --> 00:59:31,446
so powerful that it could take down the entire system, which is what these guys wrote about,

877
00:59:31,446 --> 00:59:34,966
which they believe. If you take the internet down, we're all in trouble.

878
00:59:35,686 --> 00:59:41,126
And they were saying that this is possible, like not just possible, like it is possible.

879
00:59:41,126 --> 00:59:44,646
It was happening with some of their things, not that it was taking it down, but it was creating

880
00:59:44,646 --> 00:59:48,886
these little places that you don't know they exist. So I want people to think about like,

881
00:59:48,886 --> 00:59:55,206
when you get a virus in your body, you don't find out until the symptoms start showing up.

882
00:59:55,206 --> 00:59:59,926
Like it's in there. Like you could be, you could be sick now. You don't know. Eventually your body

883
00:59:59,926 --> 01:00:05,526
starts showing the thing that, that swarm outcome of hugging face, that was a symptom. That was a,

884
01:00:06,326 --> 01:00:12,246
Hey, um, we got to take some medicine for this. So the pause is related to it. So I do think what

885
01:00:12,246 --> 01:00:17,846
Alex Karp said is, is a very real possibility. And the problem is if a pro, if the most important

886
01:00:17,846 --> 01:00:23,086
public company in the world can be privatized.

887
01:00:23,086 --> 01:00:26,526
Again, this is very powerful for entrepreneurs.

888
01:00:26,526 --> 01:00:28,366
It's very powerful for crypto.

889
01:00:28,366 --> 01:00:33,426
It is very negative for public companies, in my opinion, to have that kind of situation,

890
01:00:33,426 --> 01:00:35,666
because then the question is, where's the line for anyone?

891
01:00:35,666 --> 01:00:37,586
They've been investing in Intel.

892
01:00:37,586 --> 01:00:41,366
Once it gets to the point that it's that powerful, it's a military weapon, I don't know where

893
01:00:41,366 --> 01:00:43,166
they don't get too involved in things.

894
01:00:43,166 --> 01:00:45,306
So I think that was an important statement.

895
01:00:47,846 --> 01:00:50,226
Yeah, the stakes are so high.

896
01:00:50,226 --> 01:00:54,726
I'm just thinking because then because the next step I wanted to bring up is robotics.

897
01:00:54,726 --> 01:00:59,686
And I'm just thinking like, okay, like we're worried about stuff happening.

898
01:00:59,686 --> 01:01:05,786
These swarms getting into the digital world with robotics.

899
01:01:05,786 --> 01:01:09,086
It's a whole nother thing is that enters the physical.

900
01:01:09,086 --> 01:01:10,086
Yeah.

901
01:01:10,086 --> 01:01:15,326
And you talk because I wanted to bring up robotics in terms of like token consumption

902
01:01:15,326 --> 01:01:16,886
and the opportunity that exists there.

903
01:01:16,886 --> 01:01:19,986
And how much is that gonna balloon,

904
01:01:19,986 --> 01:01:21,906
the usage of these GPUs?

905
01:01:21,906 --> 01:01:24,726
And then you, now I'm scatterbrained,

906
01:01:24,726 --> 01:01:26,226
but like bringing back open router,

907
01:01:26,226 --> 01:01:29,426
like what does the market for these tokens even look like

908
01:01:29,426 --> 01:01:30,566
at the end of the day?

909
01:01:30,566 --> 01:01:33,566
Is the way that we're going and buying $200 a month

910
01:01:33,566 --> 01:01:37,186
subscriptions at all these different model providers,

911
01:01:37,186 --> 01:01:38,466
will we look back at that and like,

912
01:01:38,466 --> 01:01:39,746
it's completely antiquated.

913
01:01:39,746 --> 01:01:41,606
Like in the future, will we even know

914
01:01:41,606 --> 01:01:42,606
what models we're using?

915
01:01:42,606 --> 01:01:45,826
or they'll just be open router like companies

916
01:01:45,826 --> 01:01:48,486
that emerge and do all that for you?

917
01:01:49,806 --> 01:01:50,906
It's very hard.

918
01:01:52,526 --> 01:01:55,406
So first on the progression of compute needs for everything

919
01:01:55,406 --> 01:01:57,386
and now we're talking about the edge.

920
01:01:57,386 --> 01:02:01,846
So currently we're doing everything token wise in the cloud.

921
01:02:01,846 --> 01:02:02,986
On-prem is starting.

922
01:02:02,986 --> 01:02:04,606
So when you start getting into the law firms,

923
01:02:04,606 --> 01:02:07,506
you start getting into Eli Lilly,

924
01:02:07,506 --> 01:02:11,486
well they're building their own compute providers that way.

925
01:02:11,486 --> 01:02:16,666
think of this as the only analogy and come up with is when we went from an

926
01:02:16,666 --> 01:02:19,066
agrarian economy to an industrial economy.

927
01:02:19,426 --> 01:02:23,426
And John Gray included this kind of visual back in the presentation I mentioned

928
01:02:23,426 --> 01:02:24,766
that's that's on YouTube.

929
01:02:25,146 --> 01:02:28,606
And that was in 1870 to 1900.

930
01:02:29,126 --> 01:02:29,946
So if you go.

931
01:02:29,982 --> 01:02:37,742
back to the days of when, like when we were truly agrarian, we built crops, you know, we raised crops

932
01:02:37,742 --> 01:02:42,542
to feed our community. And that's what we did. Now there were little jobs, there were blacksmiths,

933
01:02:42,542 --> 01:02:46,382
there were stuff like that. But eventually you get into industrialization and you get urbanization

934
01:02:46,382 --> 01:02:50,222
and you speed up this whole process. When I would travel to China and I saw the ghost cities,

935
01:02:50,222 --> 01:02:54,702
that was urbanization. They were still an agrarian economy that was now trying to get everyone to go

936
01:02:54,702 --> 01:02:58,222
to the city, because when you go to the city, then you have more economic growth and people get

937
01:02:58,222 --> 01:03:02,862
wealthier and all these things and so i witnessed this whole thing happen in china i watch them build

938
01:03:02,862 --> 01:03:07,822
eight lane highways when you're like there's no cars everybody's in a rickshaw they were building

939
01:03:07,822 --> 01:03:13,742
for the future and how fast they were going to invest in this so with compute the only analogy

940
01:03:13,742 --> 01:03:18,462
i can give is that when you go from the agrarian to the industrial what ended up happening we saw an

941
01:03:18,462 --> 01:03:24,862
explosion in people people on the on the planet so you go from we're feeding our community all the

942
01:03:24,862 --> 01:03:29,262
the food we need is here. Now we're going to the cities, we're exploding the population.

943
01:03:29,262 --> 01:03:32,642
When I say exploding it, we're going from less than a billion people to where we are

944
01:03:32,642 --> 01:03:39,302
today. An extra 7 billion, seven times, and we're shrinking farming. So if everyone's

945
01:03:39,302 --> 01:03:43,002
leaving being a farmer and now they're going to work in the cities, how the hell do we

946
01:03:43,002 --> 01:03:49,462
feed everyone? Those people need food, everybody. So what do AI agents and humanoids need? They

947
01:03:49,462 --> 01:03:54,242
need food and their food is compute. So we're at the very early stages. And if you go back

948
01:03:54,242 --> 01:03:59,442
to the agrarian example, there's less than a billion agents. We're at the very early stage.

949
01:03:59,442 --> 01:04:01,922
So whenever people tell me we're going to be oversupplied and compute, I'm like,

950
01:04:02,562 --> 01:04:07,602
you don't know what you're saying. This didn't exist. We have to feed now trillions of agents.

951
01:04:08,242 --> 01:04:13,762
So every day, enterprise agents come on, like I said. Well, now we're going to have the next phase,

952
01:04:13,762 --> 01:04:21,362
which is consumer agents. Then behind that, we have FSD. We have humanoids. Well, that's the same

953
01:04:21,362 --> 01:04:28,082
as the other agents. No, that brings vision in. They need to work in the world. So adding vision

954
01:04:28,082 --> 01:04:35,922
into the compute needs for a car to make decisions on the fly, for a humanoid to see that grandma

955
01:04:35,922 --> 01:04:42,202
needs her medicine and it needs vision and it needs to understand and learn as it goes through it.

956
01:04:42,282 --> 01:04:46,962
So you're talking about compute needs that are far greater than what humans can comprehend. And

957
01:04:46,962 --> 01:04:51,342
these are facts as to what's coming. The humanoids are not a distant thing. They're here today.

958
01:04:51,362 --> 01:04:53,782
The FSD is here today.

959
01:04:53,782 --> 01:04:57,362
So whenever I just kind of think of people, I'm like, we're only in the first inning of

960
01:04:57,362 --> 01:04:58,362
the compute needs.

961
01:04:58,362 --> 01:05:02,802
So to your point, the humanoids and the robotics have a huge impact on the compute needs, which

962
01:05:02,802 --> 01:05:06,542
is why the investment side for the memory names, for the semiconductors, all that, why

963
01:05:06,542 --> 01:05:08,242
I have my under named portfolio.

964
01:05:08,242 --> 01:05:09,982
It's like, guys, this isn't over.

965
01:05:09,982 --> 01:05:13,082
We're just at the next stage and consumer agents are starting now.

966
01:05:13,082 --> 01:05:16,342
And that's why Meta was up 13% on Monday, because people were like, well, this is the

967
01:05:16,342 --> 01:05:17,342
most downloaded app.

968
01:05:17,342 --> 01:05:18,342
What do they do?

969
01:05:18,342 --> 01:05:19,342
Consumer agents?

970
01:05:19,342 --> 01:05:20,342
Wow, we're at consumer agent time.

971
01:05:20,342 --> 01:05:21,342
What does that mean?

972
01:05:21,342 --> 01:05:23,982
AMD's up, Intel's up. Oh my god, we need more semis.

973
01:05:23,982 --> 01:05:29,502
So yeah, energy. Do we have enough energy? Are we building it fast enough, the infrastructure?

974
01:05:31,902 --> 01:05:37,902
So on the one side, if you assume static innovation, we're in trouble.

975
01:05:39,262 --> 01:05:46,942
If you assume innovation, we have plenty. And let me let me before people go, he's wrong,

976
01:05:46,942 --> 01:05:51,202
and go through it. No, we have plenty of power inside the United States for all of the compute

977
01:05:51,202 --> 01:05:54,842
I just said, at least for the next three years, assuming it doesn't go parabolic, probably the

978
01:05:54,842 --> 01:06:00,082
next five. Where's it going to come from magically? The grid. The grid's old. We don't have enough.

979
01:06:00,202 --> 01:06:07,262
Yes, we do. We just can't use it efficiently. We have double the amount of capacity because we can't

980
01:06:07,262 --> 01:06:11,782
run it at full. And if people don't know that, they should go look it up. So you have to think

981
01:06:11,782 --> 01:06:15,382
of novel solutions and what AI could bring, because that's the thing people underestimate

982
01:06:15,382 --> 01:06:17,142
is when you're in an exponential innovation,

983
01:06:17,142 --> 01:06:19,822
they extrapolate linearly out.

984
01:06:19,942 --> 01:06:21,182
It's like, no, no, no, along the way,

985
01:06:21,222 --> 01:06:22,162
we're gonna solve problems.

986
01:06:23,162 --> 01:06:25,182
Where does Navier Stokes fit in that whole thing?

987
01:06:26,562 --> 01:06:27,542
Fluid dynamics.

988
01:06:28,402 --> 01:06:30,922
Okay, well, that has an impact on gas turbines.

989
01:06:31,522 --> 01:06:33,582
Has an impact on boats, on planes.

990
01:06:33,862 --> 01:06:35,922
Also has an impact on batteries.

991
01:06:36,882 --> 01:06:38,742
You know how important batteries are to the grid?

992
01:06:39,282 --> 01:06:41,702
If right today we could have a bunch of batteries,

993
01:06:42,362 --> 01:06:44,702
we could plug everyone into the grid and not have a problem.

994
01:06:45,382 --> 01:06:49,062
one of the reasons why bitcoin miners have become more attractive in certain states like texas

995
01:06:49,062 --> 01:06:54,982
because they're like wait a second so you guys can use the grid when no one else is using the

996
01:06:54,982 --> 01:06:59,222
grid but then you can turn it off because when the power goes up it's about arbitrage for you guys

997
01:06:59,222 --> 01:07:06,022
you guys are actually like a a synthetic like group that's good for the the grid yep they are

998
01:07:06,022 --> 01:07:10,582
so that's one of the reasons why bitcoin miners have become more of an interesting part of this

999
01:07:10,582 --> 01:07:14,402
And again, how crypto is connected to AI in various ways.

1000
01:07:14,402 --> 01:07:16,322
Here's the other place.

1001
01:07:16,322 --> 01:07:19,462
When you're in this situation, if you take the batteries and you connect to the grid

1002
01:07:19,462 --> 01:07:24,462
and you store all that power, then you can throttle, you can just run it all the time

1003
01:07:24,462 --> 01:07:25,762
and fill it up.

1004
01:07:25,762 --> 01:07:30,162
And then if we ever need that point, because there's a weather event or something that

1005
01:07:30,162 --> 01:07:34,822
drives the demand up because the temperatures go up to 150 in Texas and everyone's sitting

1006
01:07:34,822 --> 01:07:51,785
there and they got their air conditioner running all the day and you okay the grid going to go down no we just use the battery that we have stored for the next year Now to have that just like you had to do with Tesla when they created the cars and the batteries there was no novel solution But we went from people doubting an electric car to where we are

1007
01:07:51,785 --> 01:07:56,485
today. When they first came out, I think there was 20 miles of distance or something like that.

1008
01:07:56,545 --> 01:08:00,905
Go back and read the original Roadster thing and how far you could go. But the reason it was not a

1009
01:08:00,905 --> 01:08:05,405
viable solution is because you couldn't drive it that far. You could drive it around the corner,

1010
01:08:05,405 --> 01:08:09,825
showed off and then you had to come back and plug in again. And the plugging in took a long period of

1011
01:08:09,825 --> 01:08:16,005
time because there were no chargers. Now, fast forward, the car gets 400 miles of range. The

1012
01:08:16,005 --> 01:08:20,265
chargers are everywhere. So I don't think people are thinking enough about how batteries are a

1013
01:08:20,265 --> 01:08:25,405
solution to the energy problem. And now I have full confidence, full confidence that between that,

1014
01:08:25,865 --> 01:08:30,705
the innovations that have already happened this year to allow us to build things behind the meter,

1015
01:08:30,705 --> 01:08:35,745
which was not a thing before Colossus. All of these innovations are coming my friend.

1016
01:08:35,745 --> 01:08:42,065
Yeah, it's funny how the Bitcoin mining industry, I've been in it for

1017
01:08:43,505 --> 01:08:49,185
eight years now and we went through discovering all this and now watching the world wake up to what

1018
01:08:49,185 --> 01:08:56,385
we've been beating the table over for probably six years since the right before the Chinese mining

1019
01:08:56,385 --> 01:09:00,625
ban, particularly with demand response. It's like, yes, we've been telling you. And behind the meter,

1020
01:09:00,625 --> 01:09:08,065
even. That's what I was in oil fields in North Dakota. I wasn't personally, but the company that

1021
01:09:09,425 --> 01:09:15,505
I worked for from 2018 to 2021, we did flare gas mining. We'd bring generators on a well pad,

1022
01:09:16,145 --> 01:09:21,345
take the gas, scrub it, put it through a generator, mine Bitcoin with it. And there's a ton. And it's

1023
01:09:21,345 --> 01:09:22,205
It's been interesting, too.

1024
01:09:22,585 --> 01:09:28,225
This is talking about the convergence of crypto and AI, Bitcoin, AI.

1025
01:09:28,225 --> 01:09:29,205
It happens in some way.

1026
01:09:29,285 --> 01:09:29,945
We're talking about energy.

1027
01:09:30,065 --> 01:09:31,045
We're talking about agents.

1028
01:09:31,765 --> 01:09:37,745
But the people even, OpenRouter, was founded by the OpenSea team, which was the NFE platform.

1029
01:09:38,165 --> 01:09:41,685
And their head of strategy was an ex-Marathon guy.

1030
01:09:42,505 --> 01:09:47,045
And I'm going to record next with somebody from News Research.

1031
01:09:47,165 --> 01:09:48,105
He came from Foundry.

1032
01:09:48,105 --> 01:09:53,065
And like it's there's this and I think we've discussed this before, but.

1033
01:09:53,945 --> 01:10:07,665
In my life, the early adopters of AI have typically been people in the Bitcoin industry that are that are there's there's something with the psyche of people that have been in this industry.

1034
01:10:07,845 --> 01:10:11,485
And I think the fact that they're in it is a tell that they're early adopters.

1035
01:10:11,485 --> 01:10:18,025
And that's the thing I don't think many people appreciate is like a lot of the companies that

1036
01:10:18,025 --> 01:10:21,205
are coming up in AI have people that came from this industry.

1037
01:10:21,205 --> 01:10:25,425
And to your point about these convergences are happening at every layer, like even the

1038
01:10:25,425 --> 01:10:26,425
people layer.

1039
01:10:26,425 --> 01:10:30,425
And vice versa too.

1040
01:10:30,425 --> 01:10:32,425
I'm guessing you've never heard of Ali Yaya?

1041
01:10:32,425 --> 01:10:33,425
No.

1042
01:10:33,425 --> 01:10:34,425
Okay.

1043
01:10:34,425 --> 01:10:38,205
So Ali Yaya is one of the original partners of A16Z.

1044
01:10:38,205 --> 01:10:42,685
He is part of the crypto group.

1045
01:10:42,685 --> 01:10:47,605
So he's been at the place a long time and I ran into him and I'm going to be, I just

1046
01:10:47,605 --> 01:10:52,465
did a video for my subscribers titled, Crypto, Why Now?

1047
01:10:52,465 --> 01:10:57,765
And this was my way of kind of saying to people who are part of my AI subscribers, but this

1048
01:10:57,765 --> 01:11:04,025
is also for crypto people because like, I've listened to you for a while, like as I've

1049
01:11:04,025 --> 01:11:07,885
kind of consume knowledge to understand crypto more,

1050
01:11:08,765 --> 01:11:10,005
I have to go back to the people

1051
01:11:10,005 --> 01:11:13,025
that have been creating content for a long time.

1052
01:11:13,025 --> 01:11:15,205
Because as I believe and as you know,

1053
01:11:15,205 --> 01:11:16,565
when you interview smart people,

1054
01:11:16,565 --> 01:11:18,165
you consume a lot of that information.

1055
01:11:18,165 --> 01:11:21,045
There's things I said today that have connected for you.

1056
01:11:21,045 --> 01:11:24,665
There's things you've asked me that have connected for me.

1057
01:11:24,665 --> 01:11:27,985
Ali Yahya went to Stanford.

1058
01:11:27,985 --> 01:11:30,825
He worked in Google X out of school,

1059
01:11:30,825 --> 01:11:33,025
and then he worked for Google Brain.

1060
01:11:34,025 --> 01:11:38,685
He's an AI and cryptography expert.

1061
01:11:38,685 --> 01:11:47,045
He decided to go to A16Z because his story is that he was trying to convince the Google

1062
01:11:47,045 --> 01:11:48,885
X guys to invest in crypto.

1063
01:11:48,885 --> 01:11:53,565
It's a great story of someone I'd never heard of, but I'm using him in my video and I used

1064
01:11:53,565 --> 01:11:56,625
him in the video for Why Now for people to go learn.

1065
01:11:56,625 --> 01:11:59,285
Because I'm like, you should go listen to this guy talk about it.

1066
01:11:59,285 --> 01:12:03,645
So the videos I'm showing are recent interviews with him in May.

1067
01:12:03,645 --> 01:12:07,325
They raised another fund at A16Z, which I think is really important for people on the

1068
01:12:07,325 --> 01:12:08,325
crypto side.

1069
01:12:08,325 --> 01:12:10,785
This was in the depths of the bear market.

1070
01:12:10,785 --> 01:12:18,785
So this is when Bitcoin had been down for six months or seven months since October 10th.

1071
01:12:18,785 --> 01:12:22,965
And they're talking about taking in $2.2 billion for it.

1072
01:12:22,965 --> 01:12:27,925
And the whole rationale with Chris Dixon, who you probably have heard of.

1073
01:12:27,925 --> 01:12:30,105
So Ali Yahya is the person that nobody seems to know.

1074
01:12:30,105 --> 01:12:31,105
I didn't know him.

1075
01:12:31,105 --> 01:12:32,785
I knew Chris Dixon for a long time.

1076
01:12:32,785 --> 01:12:39,105
Yaya is the person I care the most about because he understands the value of the agentic side.

1077
01:12:39,105 --> 01:12:44,865
He talks about privacy. He's the one that got me so focused on Zcash. And I started to understand

1078
01:12:44,865 --> 01:13:01,768
from a business fiduciary who raised money who now understands oh my gosh I think Zcash should be up massively over the next year If my view of the value of privacy my view of the value of trust these are all things that I realizing crypto is going to be valued off of

1079
01:13:02,028 --> 01:13:03,308
It's going to be off privacy.

1080
01:13:03,468 --> 01:13:04,408
It's going to be off trust.

1081
01:13:04,488 --> 01:13:05,568
It's going to be off speed.

1082
01:13:06,008 --> 01:13:09,048
These are metrics that don't fit in the fiat system.

1083
01:13:09,208 --> 01:13:11,788
You can't do that with stocks, but there's value for it.

1084
01:13:11,808 --> 01:13:14,568
That's why the multiple is going down, because on the flip side,

1085
01:13:14,788 --> 01:13:18,088
I don't trust you're going to be here in the next five years

1086
01:13:18,088 --> 01:13:19,448
because terminal value is gone.

1087
01:13:19,448 --> 01:13:20,848
Like I could do this all day.

1088
01:13:21,248 --> 01:13:23,228
Your business is too slow, Visa.

1089
01:13:23,428 --> 01:13:24,608
You're not going to be in business.

1090
01:13:24,848 --> 01:13:25,608
You better adapt.

1091
01:13:25,848 --> 01:13:31,828
Like everything is about those things that I mentioned, privacy, like Zcash, the ability

1092
01:13:31,828 --> 01:13:34,148
to do things and not actually know who's on the other side.

1093
01:13:34,208 --> 01:13:35,008
Should it be bigger than Bitcoin?

1094
01:13:35,128 --> 01:13:35,348
No.

1095
01:13:36,288 --> 01:13:39,408
Should it probably be 10% of the value of it?

1096
01:13:39,508 --> 01:13:43,088
Yeah, my guess is it probably should in the long run, if I'm right about privacy.

1097
01:13:43,488 --> 01:13:48,728
Ali Yaya takes you through his vision of the world and how important agents are to it.

1098
01:13:48,728 --> 01:13:51,668
And it's very hard for me to find people that speak that way.

1099
01:13:52,028 --> 01:13:54,568
I have to go into the depths of someone who went to Stanford,

1100
01:13:54,568 --> 01:13:56,068
was in Google Brain and all of this.

1101
01:13:56,068 --> 01:14:00,068
So I think as you kind of connect all these dots and you start going through the way

1102
01:14:00,168 --> 01:14:04,348
all this plays out, the backwards side of the power and the electricity side

1103
01:14:04,348 --> 01:14:08,288
and how it connects back into this, they're all related to AI and crypto

1104
01:14:08,288 --> 01:14:13,188
being synergistically the thing that matters the most in the next decade.

1105
01:14:13,628 --> 01:14:15,988
Have you looked into eCash at all?

1106
01:14:15,988 --> 01:14:19,108
I have not spent enough time on eCash.

1107
01:14:19,168 --> 01:14:19,888
Looking at eCash.

1108
01:14:20,048 --> 01:14:22,228
Well, that's what I said, the double-blinded signatures.

1109
01:14:24,048 --> 01:14:25,888
I think that, if you're looking for velocity,

1110
01:14:27,508 --> 01:14:31,848
I think eCash is much better suited than zCash.

1111
01:14:31,988 --> 01:14:33,828
I don't know what the zCash L2s look like,

1112
01:14:33,828 --> 01:14:37,228
but eCash gives you that perfect privacy,

1113
01:14:37,548 --> 01:14:39,748
but the speed at which you can transact,

1114
01:14:39,888 --> 01:14:40,748
particularly for agents.

1115
01:14:40,828 --> 01:14:42,408
And I've given my agent an eCash wallet,

1116
01:14:42,788 --> 01:14:45,228
and it's funny just watching it go.

1117
01:14:45,228 --> 01:14:47,848
I'm like, hey, go on LN Markets and trade.

1118
01:14:48,028 --> 01:14:51,468
Just take, like, just messing with, like, go on LN Markets.

1119
01:14:51,548 --> 01:14:54,648
You can sign in using your Lightning Network address

1120
01:14:54,648 --> 01:14:56,348
and then use eCash to trade.

1121
01:14:57,068 --> 01:14:58,508
Send money in with eCash.

1122
01:14:58,568 --> 01:15:00,768
We send it back, convert it back to eCash.

1123
01:15:01,748 --> 01:15:04,868
Here's my issue as people kind of think of this.

1124
01:15:05,148 --> 01:15:10,088
I think when, so only reason I care about zCash

1125
01:15:10,088 --> 01:15:15,368
is because the privacy side, what Robinhood chain,

1126
01:15:15,488 --> 01:15:18,788
like everything for me started with X, Y, Z, blah, blah, blah.

1127
01:15:19,108 --> 01:15:21,008
So I have a chain that goes backwards.

1128
01:15:21,128 --> 01:15:24,428
The mistake people are going to make is doing homework on these things

1129
01:15:24,428 --> 01:15:25,308
like it matters.

1130
01:15:26,768 --> 01:15:30,228
Whether something goes from 1 to 100 or 1 to 200

1131
01:15:30,228 --> 01:15:33,008
and something else goes from 1 to 300 or 1 to 400

1132
01:15:33,008 --> 01:15:34,168
is a complete waste of time.

1133
01:15:35,808 --> 01:15:37,688
In the end, they're both going to peak

1134
01:15:37,688 --> 01:15:41,548
and they're both going to stop growing at some point.

1135
01:15:41,548 --> 01:15:45,328
And once we get to the point where privacy is valued,

1136
01:15:46,128 --> 01:15:48,508
maybe that prevents them from getting combined

1137
01:15:48,508 --> 01:15:50,208
or let's assume there's 10 of them.

1138
01:15:50,568 --> 01:15:53,088
I still believe in the end, and it's a perfect example,

1139
01:15:54,128 --> 01:15:57,468
the value of privacy relative to Bitcoin

1140
01:15:57,468 --> 01:16:02,188
should be 10 to 15% just because that's what goes on

1141
01:16:02,188 --> 01:16:04,448
in certain parts of the world where people need the privacy.

1142
01:16:05,228 --> 01:16:06,308
Most people don't.

1143
01:16:06,528 --> 01:16:07,488
Most businesses don't.

1144
01:16:07,488 --> 01:16:12,308
But some businesses like an asset manager, they can't have their clients out there.

1145
01:16:12,308 --> 01:16:15,728
Like there's certain components where agent to agent when they're talking, you don't want

1146
01:16:15,728 --> 01:16:16,728
them to know who it is.

1147
01:16:16,728 --> 01:16:23,528
So I just think for all of it, rather than get into who wins, who loses, that to me is

1148
01:16:23,528 --> 01:16:25,648
a dangerous game, especially at this part of the cycle.

1149
01:16:25,648 --> 01:16:29,488
I think this part of the cycle is like it was for semiconductors in the first quarter.

1150
01:16:29,488 --> 01:16:31,428
It didn't matter which one you bought.

1151
01:16:31,428 --> 01:16:34,088
They all went up five to 10 times.

1152
01:16:34,088 --> 01:16:36,328
The pain now is which one do I buy?

1153
01:16:36,328 --> 01:16:37,388
And that's the knife fight.

1154
01:16:37,388 --> 01:16:39,588
And the knife fight is much harder than the,

1155
01:16:39,588 --> 01:16:41,648
oh, we didn't even see this coming fight.

1156
01:16:41,648 --> 01:16:42,928
And the, we didn't see it coming

1157
01:16:42,928 --> 01:16:44,348
is where we are in crypto in my mind.

1158
01:16:44,348 --> 01:16:46,168
You know what I've realized is,

1159
01:16:46,168 --> 01:16:48,288
I guess our fourth or fifth conversation about this one.

1160
01:16:48,288 --> 01:16:50,208
I think you might be the anti-Ed Zitron.

1161
01:16:50,208 --> 01:16:51,848
I think you two are on like Polar apps

1162
01:16:51,848 --> 01:16:56,368
that enter the spectrum of your view on this whole thing.

1163
01:16:56,368 --> 01:16:58,508
And it's funny that he's very popular right now.

1164
01:16:58,508 --> 01:17:00,408
Talk about the wall of worry and people

1165
01:17:02,108 --> 01:17:04,528
fearful of the circular financing

1166
01:17:04,528 --> 01:17:06,148
and the fact that nothing's here.

1167
01:17:06,148 --> 01:17:11,448
It blows my mind that somebody like him can get as popular.

1168
01:17:12,448 --> 01:17:15,008
The other thing is people want to confirm their priors.

1169
01:17:15,588 --> 01:17:20,568
But I think you're the anti-Ed Zitron, is how I would describe it.

1170
01:17:22,088 --> 01:17:28,588
First of all, I think there's a reason why horror movies are very popular.

1171
01:17:28,588 --> 01:17:30,588
I think there's a reason why...

1172
01:17:31,728 --> 01:17:35,728
It's a lot of things people worry about.

1173
01:17:36,148 --> 01:17:39,248
Worrying has just gotten worse over time.

1174
01:17:39,988 --> 01:17:42,368
So, you know, what's that?

1175
01:17:42,528 --> 01:17:43,368
Bears get slaughtered.

1176
01:17:43,368 --> 01:17:44,608
Bulls make money.

1177
01:17:44,988 --> 01:17:47,888
No, like, so I'm not.

1178
01:17:49,408 --> 01:17:56,748
Again, I think the fiat system is an old system that is not going to produce returns that people want.

1179
01:17:56,988 --> 01:17:58,948
I think crypto is a hedge to that.

1180
01:17:59,088 --> 01:18:00,748
I think AI is a hedge to it.

1181
01:18:00,828 --> 01:18:13,851
But AI disrupts AI from an investment thing Like I don think these are things that you can invest in based on valuation I think this is all about the speed It all about speed That just it And investing in

1182
01:18:13,851 --> 01:18:19,391
speed is very different than friction. And if you just take those two, like I'm investing in speed,

1183
01:18:19,711 --> 01:18:25,611
I'm investing in friction. And I said, well, which one is crypto? Which one is fiat? You know what

1184
01:18:25,611 --> 01:18:30,971
it is. Friction is fiat. It's the intermediaries slowing things down as much as possible.

1185
01:18:30,971 --> 01:18:36,531
I want to invest in speed. And you know what speed is? Speed is about everyone benefiting.

1186
01:18:36,711 --> 01:18:40,971
So like when you say concentration and circular finance, of course, there's circular finance.

1187
01:18:41,771 --> 01:18:50,471
That is called concentration. Seven companies control the world, literally. So of course,

1188
01:18:50,511 --> 01:18:55,831
they're lending to each other. That is called where we ended up in. Now, if you had invested

1189
01:18:55,831 --> 01:18:59,451
in that circular finance back in 2010,

1190
01:18:59,651 --> 01:19:02,011
it didn't exist because we weren't concentrated.

1191
01:19:02,431 --> 01:19:03,571
We got to this point.

1192
01:19:03,991 --> 01:19:06,571
So should NVIDIA be buying back stock

1193
01:19:06,571 --> 01:19:08,391
or should they be investing in the companies

1194
01:19:08,391 --> 01:19:10,931
that they are helping grow this whole thing?

1195
01:19:11,891 --> 01:19:13,791
Well, I mean, I think we've discussed this before,

1196
01:19:13,871 --> 01:19:15,511
but like how much cash did these companies

1197
01:19:15,511 --> 01:19:18,551
have on their balance sheet in the 2010s, early 2020s?

1198
01:19:18,651 --> 01:19:20,951
And to your point, they were all just buying back stock.

1199
01:19:20,951 --> 01:19:23,351
They weren't investing in the infrastructure,

1200
01:19:23,351 --> 01:19:26,351
to taking a positive view of this.

1201
01:19:26,351 --> 01:19:28,671
It's like, hey, they're actually taking that cash,

1202
01:19:28,671 --> 01:19:29,551
taking risk with it,

1203
01:19:29,551 --> 01:19:31,791
investing in infrastructure that we're all gonna use.

1204
01:19:31,791 --> 01:19:32,791
It's a...

1205
01:19:32,791 --> 01:19:34,391
They were growing too fast

1206
01:19:34,391 --> 01:19:37,831
and their cash buyback started to become a major part of the market,

1207
01:19:37,831 --> 01:19:41,351
let's say in 2014, 2015, because they were growing so fast,

1208
01:19:41,351 --> 01:19:43,991
they were getting so big.

1209
01:19:43,991 --> 01:19:45,631
This is one of the problems like...

1210
01:19:45,631 --> 01:19:48,911
So when cash on the balance sheets

1211
01:19:48,911 --> 01:19:51,551
is far bigger today than it was in 2010.

1212
01:19:51,551 --> 01:19:52,711
And this is part of the issue

1213
01:19:52,711 --> 01:19:53,931
when people talk about the debt.

1214
01:19:54,071 --> 01:19:58,811
I'm like, you guys can create any scary stat you want.

1215
01:19:59,131 --> 01:20:00,551
It's like picking a hitter.

1216
01:20:02,991 --> 01:20:04,991
Batter is seven of the last eight.

1217
01:20:05,131 --> 01:20:05,571
He's hot.

1218
01:20:06,591 --> 01:20:09,431
But of the last hundred, he's seven of the last hundred.

1219
01:20:09,831 --> 01:20:11,531
So he's only hot for a short amount of time.

1220
01:20:11,591 --> 01:20:12,951
He's ice cold for this.

1221
01:20:13,251 --> 01:20:14,571
You can play with statistics.

1222
01:20:15,391 --> 01:20:16,951
Look how big the debt market,

1223
01:20:17,271 --> 01:20:18,431
whenever they show these charts,

1224
01:20:18,491 --> 01:20:19,571
I know you've seen them on X,

1225
01:20:19,571 --> 01:20:21,511
like hyperscaler debt.

1226
01:20:21,511 --> 01:20:28,831
it was zero before. Now it's big. So the image we get that's big is these big histogram poles.

1227
01:20:29,571 --> 01:20:35,851
And before it was nothing. There's two stories here. One is how do companies get so big without

1228
01:20:35,851 --> 01:20:41,351
taking debt for the prior 10 years? Isn't that part of the story? Because the only way these

1229
01:20:41,351 --> 01:20:48,311
things look big is based on the fact that it was so small before. They have cash. So if you put in

1230
01:20:48,311 --> 01:20:55,031
how much cash they're making. They were making tons of cash. So I don't believe in any of

1231
01:20:55,031 --> 01:20:58,831
this stuff in terms of this. The cash on the balance sheets of corporates, when you add

1232
01:20:58,831 --> 01:21:05,091
in the liquid, because we now have interest rates. So cash was bigger back then, or it

1233
01:21:05,091 --> 01:21:09,111
was smaller, but the growth hasn't been that big. But that's because you hold treasuries

1234
01:21:09,111 --> 01:21:13,371
now because they're actually paying you interest. So when you combine them together and you

1235
01:21:13,371 --> 01:21:19,411
take the net debt of the market in terms of the corporate debt or the gross debt, and then you put

1236
01:21:19,411 --> 01:21:24,551
in the amount of cash they have, you'd be shocked at how good the balance sheets are in the corporate

1237
01:21:24,551 --> 01:21:30,731
sector. That's why spreads are so non-moving. Why is CDS going up? Because of that circular

1238
01:21:30,731 --> 01:21:36,411
finance concentration risk. You telling me you shouldn't be buying CDS on this and you don't

1239
01:21:36,411 --> 01:21:41,911
think other hedge funds who are along the names, the equity names, shouldn't be buying CDS on these

1240
01:21:41,911 --> 01:21:45,651
names because they're the ones spending all the money. If for any reason they can't spend the

1241
01:21:45,651 --> 01:21:51,551
money, the whole AI trade goes down. So isn't this one way? Let me be long the receivers and let me

1242
01:21:51,551 --> 01:21:54,811
be, instead of being short the equity, because the equity is at all time highs, guys, if you

1243
01:21:54,811 --> 01:21:58,271
didn't notice, like I don't know debt problems that have ever been in the world where the equities

1244
01:21:58,271 --> 01:22:02,691
at the all time highs, it's the junior part of the stack. So if the debt is an issue, shouldn't

1245
01:22:02,691 --> 01:22:06,111
the equity be down first? That's what happened in every, that's what happened with the banks.

1246
01:22:06,191 --> 01:22:09,511
That's what happened with the oil stocks, but instead they're at the highest level ever.

1247
01:22:09,511 --> 01:22:15,071
So for all of the spenders right now, rather than short the equity, just go buy the CDS

1248
01:22:15,071 --> 01:22:16,251
in the event that something happens.

1249
01:22:16,311 --> 01:22:17,251
You'll make a lot of money on it.

1250
01:22:17,311 --> 01:22:18,051
You can lever it up.

1251
01:22:19,511 --> 01:22:22,571
It's always an incredible pleasure speaking with you, Jordy.

1252
01:22:22,611 --> 01:22:24,951
I appreciate you taking time.

1253
01:22:25,031 --> 01:22:29,411
Anything that we didn't touch on that we should make the audience aware of?

1254
01:22:29,531 --> 01:22:30,611
We covered a lot.

1255
01:22:31,411 --> 01:22:38,411
Only thing I'll say is for the last year, I've spent all my time

1256
01:22:38,411 --> 01:22:47,231
focusing on launching something to help educate people on AI with eventually crypto being part of

1257
01:22:47,231 --> 01:22:53,851
it. Since you watch the stuff that I do in my videos, starting in June, I started telling people,

1258
01:22:54,111 --> 01:22:58,191
okay, I'm going to be launching a crypto site. It's going to happen in September, October.

1259
01:22:58,951 --> 01:23:02,131
Now I could have launched something in July. Why did I say September,

1260
01:23:02,871 --> 01:23:06,551
October? For those who know me, I work even in the summertime, even though I'm in Maine.

1261
01:23:06,551 --> 01:23:12,551
This was solely about me timing things based on where I thought the agentic side would kick in.

1262
01:23:12,551 --> 01:23:15,851
And I believed it would happen later in the year.

1263
01:23:15,851 --> 01:23:19,951
So I've been talking about consumer agents as the big trade for next year, that crypto would be the big

1264
01:23:19,993 --> 01:23:25,173
anyone who saw me speak in Fort Lauderdale or LA or any of the places this year where I got on stage

1265
01:23:25,173 --> 01:23:31,953
and I said the micron of next year is crypto so when you're looking for what's a 10 bag or 13 bag

1266
01:23:31,953 --> 01:23:37,193
or over the course of a year it's going to be because consumer agents start getting into needing

1267
01:23:37,193 --> 01:23:41,513
the guardrails and we'll finally there so the only thing I want people to realize the reason I'm now

1268
01:23:41,513 --> 01:23:46,033
watching the crypto part of it which is on the site and for people who've already subscribed so

1269
01:23:46,033 --> 01:23:49,253
they were always getting AI now they're getting crypto so they're getting two videos a week

1270
01:23:49,253 --> 01:23:52,853
these will not be on YouTube, but they're also getting the research. And I bring that up because

1271
01:23:52,853 --> 01:23:58,173
if you're a person that doesn't feel like you understand and you can't get out of the worry,

1272
01:23:58,173 --> 01:24:02,633
if you don't understand crypto, and if you watch last week's, I compared it to learning cricket

1273
01:24:02,633 --> 01:24:08,453
as an American baseball fan. Cricket is a very complicated game of which I'm not going to take

1274
01:24:08,453 --> 01:24:13,133
the time, but learning a new sport, that takes a lot of time. You got to see the nuances. Crypto

1275
01:24:13,133 --> 01:24:18,313
is going to be a very difficult learning curve for people, far more difficult than buying AMD,

1276
01:24:18,313 --> 01:24:24,353
Intel or Micron. You know that language. This is a new world and unfortunately a lot of the crypto

1277
01:24:24,353 --> 01:24:29,393
people are going to scare you. A lot of the TradFi people are going to scare you. Jordy's job is to be

1278
01:24:29,393 --> 01:24:43,663
here and keep you from being scared If you don want to be scared check out Jordy As somebody who watches your videos and is a subscriber it been an incredible amount of value for me personally So thank you for doing it And thank you for joining us

1279
01:24:44,103 --> 01:24:44,603
No problem.

1280
01:24:44,663 --> 01:24:45,823
And send me your thoughts on the video.

1281
01:24:45,923 --> 01:24:47,063
It's getting released Wednesday morning.

1282
01:24:47,203 --> 01:24:48,323
So why now in crypto?

1283
01:24:48,543 --> 01:24:52,783
I'll have to go manually buy a train ticket and watch it on the train.

1284
01:24:53,463 --> 01:24:54,443
Agents aren't there yet.

1285
01:24:54,863 --> 01:24:55,483
Peace out, freaks.

1286
01:24:56,283 --> 01:24:58,443
Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.

1287
01:24:58,923 --> 01:25:02,503
If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode.

1288
01:25:02,503 --> 01:25:07,843
if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to get the word

1289
01:25:07,843 --> 01:25:15,063
out there also wherever you're listening whether that's youtube apple spotify make sure you like

1290
01:25:15,063 --> 01:25:20,883
and subscribe to the show and if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms that goes a long

1291
01:25:20,883 --> 01:25:27,003
way last but not least if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free make sure you

1292
01:25:27,003 --> 01:25:33,663
download the fountain podcasting app and go to fountain.fm to find that $5 a month,

1293
01:25:33,743 --> 01:25:39,623
get you every episode a day early ad free helps the show gives you incredible value.

1294
01:25:40,123 --> 01:25:46,703
So please consider subscribing via fountain as well. Thank you for your time. And until next time.

1295
01:25:57,003 --> 01:26:26,983
Thank you.