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James, the debasement trade is on.

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New all-time highs are here.

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It's all one trade, mate.

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It's all one trade.

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There's something wrong with the denominator.

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It really is.

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It really is.

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People don't realize it yet.

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It's fascinating, right?

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And I've said this before, I think even on this pod,

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it's amazing to me that bond traders,

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I love Luke Groman's limer,

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is they have to lull them to sleep

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and just slowly anaesthetize the bond market.

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They have to just pretend that they're going to try

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and solve this problem don't worry just hold these bonds we're going to mandate these ones or no it's

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okay we're going to try and get yields down which means bond prices up and it's like guys it's just

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they're shit coins they really are and this to the skeptics out there the bitcoin skeptics it is

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astonishing i think uh mitchell hoddle he had this tweet from earlier today i'll pull it up

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because i thought it was a good one uh new all-time highs today and people for better or for worse

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still believe bitcoin is a fad um not something to pay attention to but if i mean we've talked

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about this many times i think how far bitcoin has come in only a little under 17 years is is

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miraculous and it shows here like you will look back on bitcoin's monetization in marvel at how

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fast it happened on the zoomed out timeline of humanity bitcoin's takeover happened virtually

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instantaneously, truly a zero to one moment. Totally. So here's an interesting thought that

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I'd be curious to get your ideas on. I don't know about you, I mean, I'm certainly observing that

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Bitcoin has become desensitized to it. So there's almost this bifurcation of how people are observing

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and analyzing and studying Bitcoin. People who are coming in now, let's call them the tradfys,

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the retirement accounts, like granted, there's still a small chunk of the overall demand.

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I would estimate something like 20 odd percent or thereabouts. They're coming in and going,

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like they just see the ibit chart it's in a bull market it goes up only what's not to like and you

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got all the bitcoiners who've been around through all the high octane phases looking at this thing

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being like oh god this cycle sucks it's so slow so boring you've got this real interesting dichotomy

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where it's like it is monetizing at an incredible rate think about some of the headlines that we see

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these days if you told yourself that back in 2020 back in 2018 for you back in 2013 14 50 you

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wouldn't believe it, right? You just actually couldn't believe it was happening. And now we're

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so desensitized to it. There's like this bifurcation of the market. What are your thoughts on that?

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I think Bitcoin bores people to death. This is what Bitcoin does. It lulls people into a state of

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complacency and uncomfortability where they're not happy that it's not reaching new all-time highs

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every day. But again, it's insane. Looking at the charts now, we're at $2.5 trillion market cap.

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And thinking back to our conversation earlier this year where Bitcoin had established itself as a $2 trillion asset, it's already added 25% more in market cap since then.

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And it's like, what do you people want?

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What more do you want?

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It's up almost 100% over the last one year.

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It's up 32.6% year to date, five years up over 1,000%.

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It is monetizing in real time.

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but you were alluding to some things that have manifested over the course of

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this year that may have some long time Bitcoiners,

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but her because they made the wrong decision.

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Oh yeah.

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The old treasury company trade is,

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I mean,

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there's one of those things that like,

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I love it.

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Like all things.

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I love the gray zone.

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The gray zone is where I find it interesting.

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And you know,

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you look at some of the comments I get on Twitter,

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I was,

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you know,

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I'll poke fun of them on Twitter saying,

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you know,

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Bitcoin's at 125 grand.

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It's punching all time highs.

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And I just flicked through all the treasury company charts down,

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60, down 70, down 85, down 95. It's like some of them are punching new lows as Bitcoin is ripping

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to new all-time highs. You just look at this thing like something is going on here, right?

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The market is, in my view, like my real high-level view, I've had this line that MNAV gravity is

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towards one. It appears to be that MNAV gravity is indeed towards one. By the way, gravity just

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means that's the acceleration. That's where it wants to go. There are a handful of these companies

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that I think are going to be able to fight that gravity.

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But you need a toolkit, right?

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And if your stock goes below one,

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it's just hard to dilute shareholders.

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We're below one.

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And then people are saying,

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oh, well, why don't they buy back this stock?

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And I'm just like,

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why would you want to own a hedge fund

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that isn't a hedge fund

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that basically sells Bitcoin at the high

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before it runs to buy back their stock,

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which is in a downtrend, right?

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You're rotating out of your winner into your loser.

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Why would I want to own a company that does this?

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So I just think the toolkit

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for companies that aren't strategy,

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that aren't maybe meta planet.

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Like there's a handful of these things that make sense.

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I just think the market's sending a really,

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really brutal signal that there isn't quite the demand

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people thought there is for this like

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hundreds of treasury company trade type idea.

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Companies that are saving Bitcoin is great.

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But like, I just think there's a lot of,

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there's a lot of capital that's been incinerated.

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And I think that's put a dampener on moods, honestly.

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Some of them might come back.

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and if Bitcoin goes on a tremendous run,

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there's no question there'll be some kind of premium

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baked back into these things.

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But will they ever,

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like if you go and do that calculation of what it takes,

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if you're down 95%,

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if you're down 95,

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it means you've been down 90,

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you've been cut in half again.

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You've got to get a really, really big return

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to get back to break even,

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like to get back to break even.

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So it's just a,

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it's a challenging proposition, I think.

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It really is.

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And for most of these companies,

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I agree with you,

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There's going to be a parade of distribution, probably even more pronounced of a distribution.

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And I've been saying it all year.

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It's just too good to be true that you can just easily spin one of these up and issue shares, do converts, whatever it may be, accumulate Bitcoin and have your stock outperform Bitcoin.

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to your point, like operating businesses that are profitable, doing something completely different

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and unrelated to Bitcoin that has value and provides utility to the market is,

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and they're funneling their profits in the Bitcoin. I think that's the best strategy long term.

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Totally. I mean, our business does exactly that. And that's the separation. There's like the all

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in seller style strategy. Whenever I talk about treasury companies, that's all I'm talking about.

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like companies that just sweep cash into BTC.

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Good, fantastic, exactly what you should be doing.

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It's the ones that go all in.

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That is a very, very tough.

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It's a tough business because you don't have the scale.

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Like strategy has the scale to tap debt markets.

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They have the scale to do preferreds.

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They have enough inertia where the market believes

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that they can, you know, 640,000 corn.

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Sure, it's going to be hard to double your stacks

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and then out of two is challenging,

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but they also have the most means and likelihood

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of being able to do that.

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If once you get these small penny stocks,

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once they go below an MNAVA one,

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like how do you restart those engines?

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It's tricky.

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But I think that's one element.

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But I also think that part of this whole story

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is actually just derivatives as well.

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As the market matures,

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that is, I mean, the least discussed,

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but I think most important thing since the ETFs,

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there's a market structure shift

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has been these IBIT options.

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I don't think people understand how big they are.

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I'm doing a report as we speak on this.

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it's 51 cents of options leverage per dollar in ibit like it's exploded it's now 57 of the trade

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volume for options it's overtaken there a bit and then it went live in november so this is just a

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massive massive massive shift to market structure uh you know it creates more avenues for leverage

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wall street's going to start playing games to capture volatility but as we know bitcoin has

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this very, very unique characteristic where it lulls everyone to sleep and then it rips and it

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just moves. And that's the kind of thing where you can get a bunch of guys really off sides.

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And where we are right now, we're at 125 something or 124, there's a massive pool of calls, like

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350,000 contracts that are due in just October. So it's a massive, massive chunk of total open

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interest. These are people who've sold covered calls above the previous all-time high. They've

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just flipped over to being out of the money, right? So essentially the buyers of those calls

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are in the money, so they're happy. But the guys who sold those covered calls, sure, if the price

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stays here at 124, 125 till the end of October, that's fine. They collect the premium, they win.

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But if we go to 130 or 140 and we just keep climbing, suddenly they've given up all that

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upside at massive scale. So you'll probably see the higher that the price goes, the more of those

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guys are going to say, oh shit, I shouldn't have sold that upside and start flipping and going the

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other direction. So that's going to be a very interesting dynamic. Well, that's one variable

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of many that you highlighted in a recent report that you did in collaboration with Unchained about

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the changing market structure. And we've been touching on this during our quarterly catch-ups

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throughout the year, but I don't know.

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I read the report, went through it.

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You see more bullish than you have been throughout the year.

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You recall them for 150.

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I believe the report had some potential targets above that.

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Yeah, so I think the dynamic as it stands,

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so chop solidation has been my meme of the year, right?

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That's been actually meme of the cycle.

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We've had two major phases.

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The first one was in 24, proved we're a trillion dollar asset.

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Second one, I would say all of 2025 has been one big-ass chop solidation.

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And just for clarity, when I say chop solidation,

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it derives its name from a technical indicator I call the choppiness index.

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And it basically looks at how much energy is in the tank for a market to keep trending.

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Short story is when the market runs really hard in either direction,

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and it works on daily, weekly, monthly timeframes,

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you just hit a point of exhaustion where the market can't keep running it's got to take a break

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and my definition of chop solidation it's obviously taking the chop part combining with

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consolidation price goes nowhere for like six eight twelve months absolutely nowhere you close

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your eyes but it's sold off it's rallied it's blown up it's liquidated people like accounts of

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the bodies of traders are littered all over the road to get there and the price is dead flat

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2025 has more or less been that right up until very recently we were at 110 we had a previous

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all-time high in january at 110 the market's gone basically absolutely nowhere and only in recent

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history we started actually lifting off that base that 2025 zone here's some some fun facts for it

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uh 30 of the supply currently has a cost basis above 95k 60 if you price those coins based on

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when they moved on chain. So really, people, yes, some of us think about things in BTC terms,

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most people think about it in USD terms. When you buy a big slug of Bitcoin, you're looking at the

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price relative to that purchase price. So the dollar value is actually what people emotionally

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anchor to. So 30% of the coins are up there, but 60% plus of the dollars that have ever been

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invested in Bitcoin is above 95k. This is our new home, right? Imagine if we go down below 95,

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suddenly that 60% of dollars, they're all underwater and going, holy shit, did I just

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buy the top? So you can imagine how the sentiment would shift really badly if we were below 95.

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However, we've now bounced, right? We're now at 125. We tried to sell off. And let me tell you,

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there are plenty of signs of slowing momentum in this market. And you're right, I've been

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relatively cautious over the last, I would say, month or two, really since the first 125

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all-time high, somewhat cautious because I was like, why is gold ripping? Why are equities ripping?

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Why isn't Bitcoin ripping? And there's this idea I've been floating around recently where gold,

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I think, tells us the future. It's where we're going when all is said and done. It smells out

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the debasement first months in advance. Bitcoin is much more sensitive to the near-term local

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liquidity. So if Bitcoin was showing weakness, gold is ripping, one interpretation of what that

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could mean is that the path between here and where gold is, is a bit weaker, right? Maybe you

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see a crack in the equity market. Maybe the AI bubble slows down, whatever it is. The response

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is going to be debasement at a monumental scale. This is the big print ID. But Bitcoin is going to

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show us the road to get there. Now, the fact that we're still pushing up to 125, great. And honestly,

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the market is now saying, I want higher. So my big picture view here is we could have gone to 95.

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That would have been, I think, all over for the bull. We didn't. We didn't even get below 110,

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which is a critical level there, short-term cost basis. And we've bounced. We did that twice.

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The bulls are now in control. If we go back down to 110, you now have to ask yourself,

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where the hell are the bulls? What are they doing? Where's your firepower? So it kind of

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sets us up with a really nice just framework but going back to your original question that

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shop solidation we've seen in 2025 if my thesis is correct we've built an enormous base up here

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at 2 trillion we proved a trillion in 24 we've proved 2 trillion in 25 so now the question is

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how many trillions and i mean the most logical thing is let's go to 150 let's see what that

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looks like because that's 3 trillion but we've got this massive base right 60 of the dollars

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invested in Bitcoin have said, I want it above 95K. That's more of a floor than it is a ceiling.

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So it's one of these nice binary setups and markets, you've always got to hold two views

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at the same time. There's no excuse for the market to go down to 95 right now. We have proven that

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we want to go higher. The bulls are in control. If not, the bulls are just weak source and probably

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over for a period of time. But that's not the base case because we're at 125 and it feels like we want

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150 and we're coming off a really really nice stable base you can kind of start lifting some

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of your targets and saying well because we've proven 110 that's the floor where where do we

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go from here yeah and another chart that we're talking about before we hit record that i really

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like in this report is a realized volatility and i think that is chopped solidation painted in

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another picture if you just look at these ball numbers that you can see like it's a spring coiled

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getting ready to pop.

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And so-

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I'm pretty sure that I called out this chart.

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Like if there's one thing

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in the entire Bitcoin market cycle,

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if there's one data point that says

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like this time is measurably different.

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And it's important to make the distinction here.

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When I say this time is different,

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it is not in the financial sense of the word,

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which is that when,

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like the foremost dangerous words in finance,

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this time is different,

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is when it's ripping to the upside

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and everybody is just saying new paradigm,

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no more bears, blah, blah, blah.

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That is not what I'm talking about.

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This time is actually different, and you can see it in this chart.

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We are trading in a very, very different regime.

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If you look in previous bull markets Bitcoin is very commodity Volatility picks up during the upswings and then compresses in the bear when no one cares about it We had this very very compressive oil profile

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And there's a number of factors that come into this.

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There's derivatives, there's options.

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There's also just this kind of institutional bid that's under us.

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One thing that's been very characteristic of this cycle, if you look at spot order books,

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because as you would know, you can do taker or you can do maker, right?

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If you're a maker, that means you're putting in a limit order and saying, I want to buy

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Bitcoin below the price.

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Or if you're a seller, I want to sell it above the current price.

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The taker is the one that goes across the order book and actually hits the ask or hits

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the bid and is actually taking liquidity out of the books.

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For almost the entirety of this cycle, we've had a massive bias towards net sellers, people

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who are market selling into buy walls.

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And the price hasn't gone down more than 32% twice.

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there is a huge amount of liquidity that's just sitting there on the buy side but it's not rushing

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to the other side of the book it's not doing fomo buys it's allowing the market to sell to them

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it's a much more patient much more conservative sophisticated honestly bid side and it does it

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compresses the volatility because you're not getting those crazy downswings we're also not

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getting the crazy upswings but there's this like demand cushion sitting underneath the price just

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accepting all the sell side. And let me tell you, there has been some tremendous sell side this

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cycle. Tens of billions of dollars in a month. We saw 80,000 Bitcoin get sold. The market went down

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3% and then recovered. There's just all these dynamics that say that we have a very sophisticated

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bid side. And they are. They're just boring people to death. People are selling because they think,

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Bitcoin cycle's over and we've come to the end of the four-year cycle and it's been shit. I may as

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we'll get out of this position.

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And then these like giant ball of buyers

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are just like, thank you very much.

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Keep it coming, keep it coming.

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We're just going to absorb, absorb, absorb.

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And then one day it's just,

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there's going to be no sellers left.

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It's just going to rip.

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Yeah. And it's funny too,

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the Uptober meme really becoming true

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in the first six days of the month.

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But then, I mean, just pattern recognition

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of the psychology of the Bitcoin market,

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specifically like you had Paul Tudor Jones

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on CNBC this morning,

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like Bitcoin's going to rip, gold's ripped, Bitcoin's going to rip.

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You have a bunch of people in TradFi, you had JP Morgan come out and basically say,

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we surveyed our clients and we're asking them why they're investing in particular assets

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when it comes to gold and Bitcoin.

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They're doing it because they're worried about debasement and fiscal dominance taking over.

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And then you had Mohammed El-Rain come out and basically say, oh, like Bitcoin is the

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debasement trade.

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So you sort of have this memetic power, narrative power building around it at the perfect time, too.

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Which, by the way, Bitcoin has just maimed that shit into existence, by the way.

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Like, we literally just said it enough times, and now the whole world says it's great.

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It is.

303
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I mean, it seems like the basement is on the table.

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I think if you look at what's happening here in the United States, particularly with the economy, it seems like the economic data is painting a different picture than what's actually happening behind the scenes in terms of the quality of life of most Americans that particularly don't own financial assets.

305
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You look at this push towards AI dominance and it being viewed as an arms race that we have to win.

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And when you factor in the amount of money that's going to need to be poured into that, it's immense.

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And we're seeing that manifest in the form of industrial policy being at the scale that it probably hasn't been since World War II with the Trump administration taking stakes in chip manufacturers, rare earth metal companies,

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pushing for the takeover of social media companies as well.

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And it seems like we're definitely hitting a point here in the United States

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where the sort of combined factors of the economic backdrop

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and the industrial policy and goals that the Trump administration wants to go after

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demand that we unleash the money printers or inject stimulus into the economy one way or another.

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and there's only so many options that they have.

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This is just what they have to do in many ways.

315
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So it's part of that dynamic if they're trapped.

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If you look at the correlation between like people say Bitcoin's just levered NASDAQ,

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but the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ, Bitcoin and the S&P, Bitcoin and gold,

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since 2022, since the bottom of that bear market, it's basically been just been one.

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So everything is just correlated to everything.

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And this is abnormal.

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And it's because it's all one trade.

322
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It's all one trade.

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there's just something wrong with the denominator and again gold is sniffing this out we have an

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inert yellow metal uh as well as a bunch of silver medals in fact i think i said on your

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pod sometime back that i was a platinum maxi uh platinum is like one of the best performing

326
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precious metals at the moment it's kicking ass um the market is just saying give me something that

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isn't cash because cash is just not doing it for me at the moment which is it's incredible to watch

328
00:20:28,450 --> 00:20:34,990
no it really is i'm going to pull up this chart i can't find the luke roman chart off the top

329
00:20:34,990 --> 00:20:39,610
out of my hand, but I know that we shared it from 1031 this morning, but just like really

330
00:20:39,610 --> 00:20:42,010
drive this point home.

331
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Like it is, and it's crazy how under the radar it is for most people.

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Totally.

333
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Especially when you consider how much Bitcoin gets besmirched in the media.

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Like if you look at the S&P going back to 2020, denominated in Bitcoin terms, it's clapped

335
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by 88%.

336
00:21:00,330 --> 00:21:09,050
on my deck there's two charts that are probably relevant uh look at slides eight and nine

337
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these are both really nice visualizations like i like i think bitcoin is misunderstand gold a lot

338
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of the time uh i like i like gold's my second biggest holding and i think it shows us the

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future it helps me understand where the bitcoin trade is going and why it's doing what it's doing

340
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So I think it's the next one.

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This one here.

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So I like to use gold as my benchmark.

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So basically, for those who are just listening, what we've basically done here is since 2022

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and specifically February 2022.

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And the reason that I've checked that date is that's when the US froze Russia's reserves.

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That's the immediate signpost to say, hey, the treasury market is no longer your sovereign

347
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savings vehicle to anybody who is listening.

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now it also the reason i like to pick that date is a it's a very important geopolitical date where

349
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the the foundation has been challenged at a fundamental level uh counter-party risk has

350
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been reintroduced to the savings asset but also it's not cherry picking like bitcoin's bottom and

351
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saying look how much it outperformed we're not cherry picking bitcoin's top and saying look how

352
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you know how much it got destroyed it has the bear market that has the bull market that follows

353
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and basically what I've done is everything is indexed to gold.

354
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So gold is the benchmark of one

355
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and it's just looking at all the major fiat currencies,

356
00:22:25,830 --> 00:22:29,510
dollar, Mexican peso, Aussie dollar, euro, pound, whatever.

357
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They're all down 40% to 60% in gold terms

358
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and that's when I took these measurements

359
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which would have been in late August.

360
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So it's down even more than that.

361
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I view gold as like the benchmark inflation rate

362
00:22:42,090 --> 00:22:43,450
over the long arc of time.

363
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It is the real inflation rate.

364
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Bitcoin is up 50% to 80%.

365
00:22:49,030 --> 00:22:51,970
More than that now, it is versus gold.

366
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And that includes a 55% drawdown versus gold in the 22 bear market.

367
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But if you go down to the next chart, you can just say, well, you know, fiat currencies,

368
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they're all programmed to debate.

369
00:23:01,970 --> 00:23:04,150
So yeah, of course, Bitcoin and gold are beating fiat currencies.

370
00:23:04,290 --> 00:23:10,910
Well, let's price the S&P 500, silver, TLT bonds, which is Luke Groman's favorite line.

371
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Let's price all of these in gold.

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And they're down 10% for silver, 24% for S&P, 65% for bonds since that same period of time.

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So clearly, there is something going on with these hard, scarce, sound money assets.

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Coins of all shapes and sizes are doing particularly well.

375
00:23:29,910 --> 00:23:33,010
Everything else, yeah, everything's part of the fiat Ponzi, not so much.

376
00:23:33,010 --> 00:23:42,870
well do you think i mean taking into account that this time is different in the sense of the market

377
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structure and the players that are involved in in the bitcoin order books and the derivatives

378
00:23:48,590 --> 00:23:52,450
around them specifically do you think people are beginning to wake up to this and if so

379
00:23:52,450 --> 00:24:00,230
how does that change things moving forward so here's a an anecdote uh if i i regularly track

380
00:24:00,230 --> 00:24:05,470
what's going on at the local bullion dealers here in Australia. Almost all one ounce gold coins are

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on back order only. When I was buying platinum, every time I would go in, I would say, hey,

382
00:24:10,790 --> 00:24:15,030
is anybody buying this stuff? And they'd be like, more sellers than buyers. No one really cares.

383
00:24:15,570 --> 00:24:20,250
I can't find a platinum coin to save my life now. Sold out everywhere. All the gold coins are on

384
00:24:20,250 --> 00:24:27,110
back order. Even the silver market, right? They've got thousands of these silver coins with stupid

385
00:24:27,110 --> 00:24:31,370
designs on that no one wants to buy, even they're starting to run out. So like just the local

386
00:24:31,370 --> 00:24:37,690
bullion dealers are moving into back order only here in Australia. There is a clear demand. Now,

387
00:24:37,770 --> 00:24:42,270
what does that do to people's psyche? Once people work this out, and this is another thing that I

388
00:24:42,270 --> 00:24:47,110
think Bitcoin has memed into existence. Goldbugs tried forever to get fiat currency. Call it what

389
00:24:47,110 --> 00:24:52,830
it's actually called. Give it the name. It took forever for goldbugs to even achieve any kind of,

390
00:24:52,830 --> 00:24:56,570
you know, acceptance of the term. Bitcoin has shown up on the scene. Next thing you know,

391
00:24:56,570 --> 00:25:01,950
everyone from Gen Z to boomers are talking about fair currency. So we managed to just crack that

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00:25:01,950 --> 00:25:06,430
egg and say, hey, there's something wrong with your denominator, call the evil what it's called.

393
00:25:07,370 --> 00:25:10,170
And as people work this out, this is another thing I think is really interesting.

394
00:25:11,170 --> 00:25:16,170
We're all but seeing an era where information travels much faster. Narratives travel very

395
00:25:16,170 --> 00:25:21,510
quickly through the internet. There's this dynamic at play where we're just kind of working out

396
00:25:21,510 --> 00:25:24,790
what the actual trade is much, much sooner.

397
00:25:24,990 --> 00:25:27,370
So I think about this in the context of the AI boom.

398
00:25:28,070 --> 00:25:30,210
I think there's a lot of evidence that it's a bubble.

399
00:25:30,570 --> 00:25:32,910
I'm certainly a little bit concerned about it

400
00:25:32,910 --> 00:25:36,090
because I get there's the industrial policy side of it,

401
00:25:36,430 --> 00:25:39,630
but also the revenue picture of it is very, very questionable.

402
00:25:40,870 --> 00:25:42,530
But how quickly can...

403
00:25:42,530 --> 00:25:43,790
If you look at the dot-com bubble,

404
00:25:44,170 --> 00:25:46,910
it took a long time for people to actually work out.

405
00:25:47,030 --> 00:25:49,530
They had many, many years of this thing just going vertical.

406
00:25:49,530 --> 00:25:53,850
and there's no question there was a you know all the fiber was laid and all that the internet was

407
00:25:53,850 --> 00:26:00,670
super powerful blah blah blah are we going to reach that point of the pets.com recognition moment

408
00:26:00,670 --> 00:26:07,690
much sooner so if people kind of index and say oh it's still 1999 but what if the timeline from

409
00:26:07,690 --> 00:26:15,050
1999 to 2001 isn't two years what if it's two months you know what if things just travel much

410
00:26:15,050 --> 00:26:20,910
much quicker. And in my view, that's like the one thing, if there was a major risk vector for

411
00:26:20,910 --> 00:26:24,630
Bitcoin, I actually don't think it's internal. I think the Bitcoin market is actually quite sound,

412
00:26:24,710 --> 00:26:30,570
quite solid. I just think that the external factor of, hey, suddenly the AI bubble isn't

413
00:26:30,570 --> 00:26:35,370
quite as healthy as we thought. There's some kind of external event that just breaks down.

414
00:26:35,450 --> 00:26:40,470
That's the main thing that I think is hard to analyze, hard to kind of track when those things

415
00:26:40,470 --> 00:26:44,690
pop. But there's enough warning signs that we should be paying at least a little bit of attention.

416
00:26:45,050 --> 00:27:01,170
Yeah, it's funny. I've been spending the last two days really battling over this question internally in my own mind. I've had Jordy Visser on the podcast. I've been watching his weekly show and a bunch of other shows to it, too.

417
00:27:01,170 --> 00:27:10,430
When you compare the AI boom to the dot-com bubble, they obviously rhyme in many other ways, but then there are ways in which they don't rhyme.

418
00:27:10,870 --> 00:27:26,630
Like the dot-com era was laying broadband, and there really wasn't much use for that broadband yet because nothing had been moved to the digital world in size or materially or anything that was worth monetizing at that point in time.

419
00:27:26,630 --> 00:27:38,790
And I guess this is what Jordy and many others are saying, was that it's different in the sense that like the AI has utility from a productivity standpoint right now for whoever uses it.

420
00:27:38,850 --> 00:27:50,710
I think ChatGBT has 800 weekly active users and everybody admits that there's definitely a massive misallocation of capital going within AI specifically.

421
00:27:50,710 --> 00:27:55,210
It's just the question of is it as sort of catastrophic?

422
00:27:55,210 --> 00:28:00,470
Does the end result as catastrophic as the dot-com bubble bursting?

423
00:28:00,850 --> 00:28:13,730
Or is the signal within the capital that's been allocated to AI strong enough to sort of just shed yourself of the bad investments and the good ones will shine?

424
00:28:13,850 --> 00:28:18,710
Not only will they shine, but they'll produce so much productivity in advance.

425
00:28:19,210 --> 00:28:23,770
The people will leverage them so much that it won't be as bad as 2000, 2001.

426
00:28:24,410 --> 00:28:25,050
I don't know yet.

427
00:28:25,250 --> 00:28:26,270
Jury's still out in my mind,

428
00:28:26,330 --> 00:28:29,830
but it is like one of those fascinating inflection points

429
00:28:29,830 --> 00:28:31,830
that we find ourselves in and trying to make decisions

430
00:28:31,830 --> 00:28:35,170
because it's all new to everybody who's involved,

431
00:28:36,470 --> 00:28:39,550
especially when you consider the exponential increases

432
00:28:39,550 --> 00:28:43,230
to productivity that AI is bringing in the world.

433
00:28:43,990 --> 00:28:44,950
Yeah, I very much agree,

434
00:28:45,010 --> 00:28:47,050
and I think there's no question the potential is there.

435
00:28:47,050 --> 00:28:49,310
And again, this is very, very anecdotal.

436
00:28:49,310 --> 00:28:56,370
i certainly find for me ai makes way too many mistakes like there was when i was trying to do

437
00:28:56,370 --> 00:29:00,790
this study on ibid options i started pulling number from because data sources in the tradfire

438
00:29:00,790 --> 00:29:05,070
world you'll be amazed how often they diverge you're like hang on a second i've got five billion

439
00:29:05,070 --> 00:29:09,490
from this source but i got 35 billion from this one which one is it so it's very very hard to

440
00:29:09,490 --> 00:29:14,830
actually reconcile this stuff so i was using ai i tried grok and chat gpt and i'm like can you just

441
00:29:14,830 --> 00:29:20,630
estimate for me what is the open interest for ibit options and then you do the deep think one where

442
00:29:20,630 --> 00:29:24,350
it actually really goes through and looks at different websites and as i'm reading through

443
00:29:24,350 --> 00:29:28,390
its copy it's like i'm just going to assume that there's a million contracts open and then just

444
00:29:28,390 --> 00:29:32,290
carries on i'm like what do you mean you're going to assume there's a million contracts open and i

445
00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:37,870
just send it a website like this one here says there's like 53 million contracts open oh yes you

446
00:29:37,870 --> 00:29:42,490
absolutely you're absolutely right there are 53 million it's like fuck me like do i have to check

447
00:29:42,490 --> 00:29:50,850
everything and i do wonder it'll get there but the mistakes it makes already i find that i'm using it

448
00:29:50,850 --> 00:29:55,610
less and less and that again that's just me and how i work and i like to write my own stuff anyway

449
00:29:55,610 --> 00:30:00,870
but even in my coding like it helps me do when i'm building up charts and things yes it can make

450
00:30:00,870 --> 00:30:06,630
things faster but also the amount of times it just introduces random bugs or like it wants to make a

451
00:30:06,630 --> 00:30:10,510
change i'm like i don't want to change anything just like fuck off leave me alone and sometimes

452
00:30:10,510 --> 00:30:13,990
I just have to disable it because I'm like, you're literally just a pain in my ass. I got,

453
00:30:14,170 --> 00:30:19,070
I didn't get to focus on my own work. So that's just where we are at the moment. So again, that's

454
00:30:19,070 --> 00:30:23,570
not a, that's not a perfect analogy to say that it's all, it's not going to work, but there's still

455
00:30:23,570 --> 00:30:29,510
a lot of errors and I can't quite see, like for me, I think the AI, there's a lot of similarities

456
00:30:29,510 --> 00:30:35,810
to Bitcoin mining. Some examples of this, if we look at like the subsidy and fee model for mining,

457
00:30:35,810 --> 00:30:49,560
They don control their output cost which is Bitcoin That a thing they produce The subsidy is guaranteed income The fees are volatile and based on user application We gone through a phase at the

458
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:55,800
moment where they're training all these LLMs. That must happen. It's like a big race for building up

459
00:30:55,800 --> 00:31:02,040
these LLMs. That is guaranteed usage of these chips, of these data centers. That's the subsidy.

460
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:08,500
but at some point that's a very expensive exercise and those models get deployed and they have to

461
00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:14,180
start actually generating revenue in people's business models in apps whatever it is over time

462
00:31:14,180 --> 00:31:18,320
that subsidy is probably going to have to give way to the inference side of the equation where

463
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:25,440
people actually have to use ai and by using it that's your fees it has to be useful if you keep

464
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,300
plugging stuff in and it goes i'm just going to assume this legal premises you're like but that's

465
00:31:29,300 --> 00:31:30,920
There's no premises for this whatsoever.

466
00:31:31,340 --> 00:31:32,660
The more people are going to say,

467
00:31:32,740 --> 00:31:33,900
maybe I can't trust this thing

468
00:31:33,900 --> 00:31:35,400
to actually do the job I'm asking you to do.

469
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,780
So therefore your fee revenue goes down.

470
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,620
So it's one of those dynamics to just keep an eye on

471
00:31:40,620 --> 00:31:43,100
that we're just not there yet where I'm like,

472
00:31:43,100 --> 00:31:45,560
it's going to replace thousands and thousands

473
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:46,600
and thousands of jobs.

474
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:48,880
It'll certainly replace some and it is,

475
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,480
but I'm not necessarily convinced

476
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,460
that we're going to see like a shedding of the workforce

477
00:31:53,460 --> 00:31:55,060
in the next period of time.

478
00:31:55,140 --> 00:31:56,820
Now, that's a longer term view.

479
00:31:57,020 --> 00:31:58,420
That is something that probably will happen.

480
00:31:58,420 --> 00:32:00,740
and the sad reality that I have to balance this with.

481
00:32:01,460 --> 00:32:03,000
The world is a bell curve.

482
00:32:03,540 --> 00:32:06,260
And sadly, even with all the mistakes that AI makes,

483
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:07,200
there are still a lot of people

484
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:08,880
who probably are going to be replaced

485
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,760
by the systems as they stand today

486
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:12,360
because they also make mistakes.

487
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,240
So that's also a challenging dynamic to be aware of.

488
00:32:15,300 --> 00:32:17,160
But yeah, it's hard to get your head around

489
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,460
where we are in this whole mix.

490
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:19,600
It really is.

491
00:32:20,420 --> 00:32:21,720
It's so fascinating, dude.

492
00:32:21,740 --> 00:32:22,380
I completely agree.

493
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,980
I catch it making mistakes every day.

494
00:32:25,140 --> 00:32:27,080
We've been leaning more into the video gen stuff,

495
00:32:27,140 --> 00:32:28,400
which has been fun, but...

496
00:32:28,420 --> 00:32:31,560
It's just fascinating to think through this.

497
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:52,460
I wish I wasn't, actually, I don't wish I wasn't nine years old when the dot-com bubble was bursting, but it would be interesting to be able to sort of teleport back to that point in time and try to gauge the sentiment correlations that are happening, that were happening back then, that are happening today.

498
00:32:52,460 --> 00:32:57,680
because everybody in Silicon Valley and obviously on CNBC is like dead set,

499
00:32:57,740 --> 00:32:58,680
like it's here, it's happening.

500
00:32:59,340 --> 00:33:02,200
We're getting to the point where trillions are being poured in.

501
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,960
It's like, oh my gosh, I better hope this pays off.

502
00:33:06,100 --> 00:33:10,400
But it also highlights the relative value of Bitcoin as well.

503
00:33:10,620 --> 00:33:12,720
I mean, we talk about this a lot at 1031.

504
00:33:13,260 --> 00:33:19,680
Like you have all these venture capital funds and growth funds being thrown at AI

505
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,820
and yet still Bitcoin, which arguably,

506
00:33:23,940 --> 00:33:25,600
I can make the argument is more important

507
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,180
or a bigger total addressable market than AI

508
00:33:28,180 --> 00:33:31,340
because it's going to be the whole money of all the world

509
00:33:31,340 --> 00:33:33,060
and AI is even going to be using it,

510
00:33:33,140 --> 00:33:35,500
still overlooked by these same investors.

511
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,100
Yeah, and I think one thing that I've,

512
00:33:39,500 --> 00:33:41,060
I can't remember, it was a couple of days ago,

513
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,960
you saw the headline that NVIDIA invested $100 billion

514
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,100
in, I think it was in OpenAI,

515
00:33:46,340 --> 00:33:48,700
so that they can buy $100 billion of NVIDIA chips.

516
00:33:48,700 --> 00:33:53,240
and you're just like, this is some like PowerPoint plugged into itself type shit.

517
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,420
It's starting to get a little bit circular.

518
00:33:55,540 --> 00:33:56,660
And like, where have we seen this before?

519
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,800
The crypto industry in every facet.

520
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,440
Like we're going to fund this protocol, which is going to fund this one, which is going to put

521
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,300
and you just see these like loops of internal financing.

522
00:34:05,460 --> 00:34:08,480
And you're like, is that because you can't actually raise money anywhere else?

523
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:09,560
Like, is that what's going on here?

524
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,260
So some of those dynamics are also, you know, leverage and debt starting to creep in.

525
00:34:14,500 --> 00:34:16,800
And again, I'm not an equity analyst.

526
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,260
I couldn't tell you where we are in this whole cycle,

527
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:24,280
but also I've come to trust my gut in markets because generally speaking,

528
00:34:24,340 --> 00:34:25,040
that serves me well.

529
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:26,820
I just have this,

530
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:27,640
this smell test.

531
00:34:27,720 --> 00:34:28,040
You're like,

532
00:34:28,460 --> 00:34:32,940
like at some point this doesn't carry on the way it's currently going,

533
00:34:33,020 --> 00:34:33,160
right?

534
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,900
We're getting close to some kind of climax here.

535
00:34:36,500 --> 00:34:36,680
Yeah.

536
00:34:37,860 --> 00:34:38,340
Yeah.

537
00:34:38,340 --> 00:34:38,640
It's,

538
00:34:38,740 --> 00:34:41,160
it's definitely frothy right now,

539
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,280
but bringing this back to Bitcoin,

540
00:34:43,580 --> 00:34:44,140
I think,

541
00:34:44,140 --> 00:34:48,720
going back to Paul Tudor Jones' comments.

542
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:50,000
And actually, I've been recording.

543
00:34:50,380 --> 00:34:53,400
I've recorded twice with Michael Howell from Cross Border Capital.

544
00:34:54,020 --> 00:34:56,440
And his whole thesis is we have these liquidity cycles

545
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,440
that are dictated by the duration of treasury bonds

546
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:01,420
and other debt instruments.

547
00:35:01,820 --> 00:35:03,980
And he was saying two months ago

548
00:35:03,980 --> 00:35:05,940
that we probably have six to nine months left

549
00:35:05,940 --> 00:35:07,900
in this liquidity cycle.

550
00:35:07,900 --> 00:35:12,140
So I mean, four to seven months left from this point forward.

551
00:35:12,140 --> 00:35:14,440
and then you had Paul Tudor Jones saying

552
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,540
from here to the end of the year

553
00:35:16,540 --> 00:35:18,380
it's a big melt up

554
00:35:18,380 --> 00:35:20,760
and so that's, I can feel

555
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,240
the 2017

556
00:35:22,240 --> 00:35:24,660
vibes coming back in terms of the speculative

557
00:35:24,660 --> 00:35:26,020
fervor, not only around Bitcoin

558
00:35:26,020 --> 00:35:28,040
but all assets

559
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,040
Yes

560
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,300
and that's one of the real challenges, right?

561
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,060
You've got all these competing forces

562
00:35:34,060 --> 00:35:36,340
and I was listening to Brandon Quidham talking

563
00:35:36,340 --> 00:35:38,340
with Danny the other day, the whole

564
00:35:38,340 --> 00:35:40,360
fourth turning idea, you've got the long term

565
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:45,100
debt cycle. You've got the social structures that are the institutions that are weak. You've got all

566
00:35:45,100 --> 00:35:52,040
these things coalescing at the same time. Liquidity cycle, debt refinancing, social cohesion,

567
00:35:53,240 --> 00:35:59,780
politics, all of it is just a real melting pot. There's not that many stable things when you look

568
00:35:59,780 --> 00:36:05,780
around. Actually, going back to gold, I was talking to my old man. He's retired and he has

569
00:36:05,780 --> 00:36:11,340
to have his assets somewhere. And he's now probably convinced and he understands the gold trade,

570
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:15,020
but I've been saying gold for years, for years and years and years. And he finally started to

571
00:36:15,020 --> 00:36:19,240
catch on. He's like, I get it. He's now understands the Bitcoin and the gold trade.

572
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:24,140
But he was like, why gold? And I was like, because if you look around the world,

573
00:36:24,300 --> 00:36:28,040
there's instability everywhere you go. Everywhere you look, there's just stuff that's

574
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,980
going wrong. And I said, do you know what a shelling point is? And he goes, no. I said,

575
00:36:31,980 --> 00:36:36,720
we're in Paris and I say I'm going to meet you at midday where are you going to be and he goes

576
00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:40,540
the Eiffel Tower so of course you're gonna be that's that's the shelling point so when the world

577
00:36:40,540 --> 00:36:45,880
is in just a real pretzel and no one really knows how to like where do I put my money and he was

578
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:50,480
saying that he went out for like a golfing weekend with some of his mates and he asked how many of

579
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:55,980
you guys know what's in your we call superannuation your 401k how many of you guys know what's in your

580
00:36:55,980 --> 00:37:00,800
401k they're all retired and he goes none of them had a single clue what was in what they'd invested

581
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:04,680
in they had no idea and it's like what are your fees they're like i don't know i've never checked

582
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:09,540
this is kind of where a lot of people are so if you come back to that view when people start to

583
00:37:09,540 --> 00:37:17,100
finally click and go i'm struggling to retire and the things i own yeah sure i'm getting six percent

584
00:37:17,100 --> 00:37:23,520
eight percent a year but my bread just went up 25 in three years like something's wrong i'm not

585
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:28,600
earning enough to stay solvent what are they going to do they're going to look around like gold is

586
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:33,800
just that shelling point where people go, I get it. You don't have to explain gold to anyone.

587
00:37:34,260 --> 00:37:37,780
They just understand that it's valuable because it's gold. It's kind of as simple as it gets.

588
00:37:38,340 --> 00:37:43,840
So that's kind of the dynamic, I think, why gold makes sense. I think Bitcoin,

589
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,820
it's just, I mean, gold's just got the size and the scale and central banks and all that.

590
00:37:48,540 --> 00:37:54,960
But Bitcoin is the only other asset that has even a remote potential to achieve that. And I was

591
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:59,180
talking about this the other day once bitcoin i mean it's already at 10 of the gold market cap and

592
00:37:59,180 --> 00:38:02,820
by the way the gold market cap going up is just raising the ceiling for where bitcoin's going

593
00:38:02,820 --> 00:38:09,200
it's just lifting up where that target is as more people start to click that these two things are

594
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:13,980
synonymous and in a way we've caught again bitcoin has kind of memed that with digital gold

595
00:38:13,980 --> 00:38:19,380
call it an affinity scam if you want but we've basically associated ourself with the only other

596
00:38:19,380 --> 00:38:24,540
asset that's kicking ass people are going to start saying well maybe if it's 10 what happens

597
00:38:24,540 --> 00:38:27,460
if Bitcoin goes to 20% of the gold market cap.

598
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,860
Once you're at 20, go to 50.

599
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,080
And once you're at 50, let's go the whole way.

600
00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:34,360
Like if you can prove that you're at 50%,

601
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,540
go the whole way.

602
00:38:36,580 --> 00:38:38,400
Because if the market's willing to support

603
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:39,380
that kind of evaluation,

604
00:38:39,540 --> 00:38:41,300
then why wouldn't it go higher than that?

605
00:38:42,460 --> 00:38:42,700
Yeah.

606
00:38:43,100 --> 00:38:45,160
No, and I think this is a really important topic

607
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:45,780
to dive into.

608
00:38:45,860 --> 00:38:46,940
Because I remember back in,

609
00:38:47,180 --> 00:38:50,660
geez, like the first time

610
00:38:50,660 --> 00:38:54,420
the sort of Bitcoin to gold parity

611
00:38:54,420 --> 00:38:58,660
targets are being set out there i think the first time if i remember correctly it was like bitcoin

612
00:38:58,660 --> 00:39:07,620
336 000 that's when it reaches parity with gold then like 2017 21 750 000 now it's like 1.8 million

613
00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:15,860
and i think in terms of market cap that's what people really don't realize gold's up what 40

614
00:39:15,860 --> 00:39:21,520
this year it's adding literally trillions of dollars to its market cap on a somewhat daily

615
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:26,740
basis at this point and that's i think we're talking about like orders of magnitude that

616
00:39:26,740 --> 00:39:31,640
you're climbing up gold's obviously been the target for some time but even the target it's

617
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:37,380
like a moving target that's drifting higher as it appreciates and more people accumulate that but

618
00:39:37,380 --> 00:39:43,220
the gold has added tens of trillions to its market cap very quietly and like in bitcoin

619
00:39:43,220 --> 00:39:49,060
sitting at a two and a half trillion dollar market cap it would be basically insane to think that

620
00:39:49,060 --> 00:39:53,760
that could happen in the timeline that it's happened with gold but i think that stat alone

621
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:57,860
highlights how early we are with bitcoin the fact that gold is quietly added i believe over

622
00:39:57,860 --> 00:40:04,980
25 trillion to market cap and crazy it was like it was 25 trillion you know uh i think it started

623
00:40:04,980 --> 00:40:10,400
the year somewhere around 25 and i think if you go back to like the the run here really started in

624
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:15,340
23 from memory uh and if you go back 22 i'm pretty sure it's like 7 trillion at the start

625
00:40:15,340 --> 00:40:21,760
of that 2020 run so it's basically added 20 trillion dollars right 10 bitcoins worth of value

626
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:26,880
in the span of like three years and i i really believe this is very much a um elephant through

627
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:33,000
a keyhole type idea where you've like if you look i saw a sentiment poll um recently and it basically

628
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:39,640
showed the allocation that institutional investors have to gold and like 45 or 50 percent of them

629
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,980
had less than one percent allocation and you're like no one owns this thing and even like the

630
00:40:43,980 --> 00:40:48,980
upper bound was like 4%. Most institutional investors have no allocation to gold. Very,

631
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:53,340
very small. And then you look at their Bitcoin position, it's even smaller. I ran a study,

632
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:58,400
it's a little bit outdated now, but it would have been in the first two or three quarterly cycles

633
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:04,220
of the ETFs going live. Something like 20% of the ETFs were held by institutions. And the vast,

634
00:41:04,220 --> 00:41:10,420
vast, vast majority of these firms had like 0.0001% allocated to Bitcoin over their AUM.

635
00:41:10,420 --> 00:41:18,160
Now, that 0.0001% was like tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. It was tiny portfolio

636
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:24,100
allocation, massive dollars. And you're just like, what happens if they go to 0.002, 0.003,

637
00:41:24,300 --> 00:41:28,620
0.1? Suddenly, you're getting like a 10x. Now, we're talking about billions of dollars coming in,

638
00:41:29,500 --> 00:41:36,060
elephants through a keyhole. At some point, there really is just so much capital that has to find a

639
00:41:36,060 --> 00:41:41,340
home and it just takes time it takes time for the market to work out there's something wrong with my

640
00:41:41,340 --> 00:41:47,320
denominator and i gotta go looking for an alternative yeah i think that's bringing back

641
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:54,820
to like fourth turning i know this time's not different in terms of uh if we get to like new

642
00:41:54,820 --> 00:41:59,980
breakout all-time highs and it's like the new paradigm super cycles here but it's fascinating

643
00:41:59,980 --> 00:42:04,100
you had germany come out today and saying they want to raise the retirement age to 72 to make

644
00:42:04,100 --> 00:42:09,640
sure that they can pay out their pensioners. Trump, flippantly, there's like offhand comment

645
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:17,860
two weeks ago, posited the same thing here. Let's raise the age to 67. And I don't know if you're

646
00:42:17,860 --> 00:42:22,700
seeing it over in Australia, and I'm sure you've seen the TikTok videos from over here. In the

647
00:42:22,700 --> 00:42:26,780
United States, people are in their cars talking about health insurance premiums growing up like

648
00:42:26,780 --> 00:42:32,820
50% on average across the board. Here in the United States, this year, we have the open enrollment

649
00:42:32,820 --> 00:42:38,640
window, which just opened up at the beginning of this month and will be open until the end

650
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,200
of January and people get to pick their health care plans there.

651
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:47,160
And I think on average across the United States, the sort of premium is going up anywhere

652
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,780
from 25 to 60 percent.

653
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,700
And the cost is getting way out of hand.

654
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:57,600
People are intuitively understanding that something has gone off the rails.

655
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:05,320
and like at what point do they force their politicians or wealth managers or rias to say

656
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:11,800
hey you need to get into these hard assets the math it's funny and then it's like i uh

657
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:17,040
i mentioned to you before we hit record i moved to a new area i was at a little cocktail party

658
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:24,640
on friday night and met a gentleman who runs a big ria book here in the united states and he like

659
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:25,720
sort of like pulled me aside.

660
00:43:25,780 --> 00:43:27,220
I was like, I need you to teach me about Bitcoin.

661
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,680
Like, I don't know much about it.

662
00:43:29,720 --> 00:43:31,280
Anytime somebody's pitched it to me,

663
00:43:31,420 --> 00:43:32,860
it seems like too good to be true.

664
00:43:32,980 --> 00:43:35,720
But it's like, dude, you manage billions of dollars

665
00:43:35,720 --> 00:43:39,220
and you don't have a grasp on Bitcoin yet.

666
00:43:39,340 --> 00:43:39,760
That's not.

667
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:40,140
Yep.

668
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,340
I didn't say it to him and hope he doesn't listen to this.

669
00:43:42,420 --> 00:43:43,940
But if you are listening to this,

670
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:45,580
we need to sit down and talk because it's not okay.

671
00:43:46,180 --> 00:43:47,680
But it's also getting to the point

672
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:48,980
where people are asking those questions.

673
00:43:48,980 --> 00:43:51,160
And that's, again, a very, very big difference.

674
00:43:51,620 --> 00:43:56,020
I've successfully orange-pilled four or five different people this cycle,

675
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,860
but I don't go out of my way anymore to orange-pill people.

676
00:43:58,980 --> 00:44:01,060
If they've got questions, they've got infinite time.

677
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,380
But the way I would characterize the folks who have actually come to me

678
00:44:04,380 --> 00:44:06,840
with questions, people who actually have wealth.

679
00:44:07,220 --> 00:44:10,000
They've got some kind of serious family wealth behind them.

680
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,480
They're looking around and going, there's something wrong here.

681
00:44:14,340 --> 00:44:17,520
I don't really want to keep invest like real estate's illiquid

682
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,940
and there's certain risks with those depending on where you live.

683
00:44:19,940 --> 00:44:23,560
there's just all these things people go you know what maybe i actually need to look into something

684
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:29,440
that is scarce liquid and just i can hands off i don't have to think about it anymore so that's

685
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:35,480
the kind of dynamic i think the the kind of the high net worth individual also the retirees um you

686
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:40,580
know we are one of our plans that we have at check and change our orange plan disproportionately

687
00:44:40,580 --> 00:44:45,060
retirees who have a you know meaningful amount of wealth and they're now looking ahead and saying

688
00:44:45,060 --> 00:44:50,540
well, I need to buy myself some runway, but I also really understand Bitcoin, trying to find

689
00:44:50,540 --> 00:44:53,940
that balance between like, I don't really want to sell all of it, but I kind of need to sell some of

690
00:44:53,940 --> 00:44:59,360
it. Or I need to find some kind of liquidity somewhere. But that dynamic of the type of

691
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:04,720
investor who is now coming into Bitcoin and staying here, that is a really, really different

692
00:45:04,720 --> 00:45:08,700
dynamic that I think a lot of people have missed. We're not in that like millennial hodler phase

693
00:45:08,700 --> 00:45:14,840
anymore. And of those millennial hodlers, I think a lot of us, like people say, well, why would you

694
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:19,640
sell your Bitcoin. This is a topic that I like to talk about because one sold Bitcoin is one bought

695
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:24,140
Bitcoin. It's actually a measurement of demand. But there's a lot of people like you and I who

696
00:45:24,140 --> 00:45:28,200
are at that phase where they've got kids, they need a house, they've made a bunch of money,

697
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,520
they kind of need liquidity to improve their life and live because that's kind of more important

698
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:37,360
than your Bitcoin. That's another phase I think is misunderstood. People sell because they just

699
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:42,580
have life requirements that are more important than number go up, right? Because lifestyle go

700
00:45:42,580 --> 00:45:43,640
up is just more valuable.

701
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,500
So I think that's another component that is worth tracking.

702
00:45:47,780 --> 00:45:48,100
Agreed.

703
00:45:48,820 --> 00:45:53,360
With that in mind, I mean, what are you seeing on chain?

704
00:45:53,360 --> 00:46:12,310
Talking about new market dynamics new drivers for liquidity in the market and new buyers and sellers What are the levels that are sticking out to you now that we cross over a new all high Yes It easier to illustrate on the downside

705
00:46:12,610 --> 00:46:16,870
because on the downside, the real risk is 95. 95 is a level that we don't want to hit.

706
00:46:17,530 --> 00:46:22,410
Honestly, we go back down to 110, you're like, why? Why did we go there? We have no place being

707
00:46:22,410 --> 00:46:28,270
there. I was describing that whole block, that 60% of all the dollars invested. I call it the

708
00:46:28,270 --> 00:46:34,130
hodler's wall because that zone is super, super, like just so many coins are there,

709
00:46:34,350 --> 00:46:37,890
so many cost bases are there. It's where our sentiment lives. We don't want to go below that.

710
00:46:38,570 --> 00:46:42,190
Now on the buy side and the upside, this is where things start to get really interesting.

711
00:46:42,830 --> 00:46:46,730
I think there's a chart, I think I can see in the background there, this chart with waves.

712
00:46:47,330 --> 00:46:54,170
There's two arguments that I think should be put to bed. The first one that TradFi guys love to

713
00:46:54,170 --> 00:47:00,150
put out there is that Sailor has been the only buyer in this market, and it's just measurably

714
00:47:00,150 --> 00:47:06,510
false. There's no way. The numbers simply aren't big enough for Sailor to be the only buyer.

715
00:47:07,330 --> 00:47:11,610
If you flick down to... Actually, we should come back to this chart. There's another one at,

716
00:47:11,610 --> 00:47:20,850
I think it's slide 21. If we look at the overall... Keep going, keep going, keep going.

717
00:47:20,850 --> 00:47:28,870
i think it's after this next one this one no although this one's also useful let's just start

718
00:47:28,870 --> 00:47:34,050
here first things first um the most bullish metric of all time in bitcoin the realized cap

719
00:47:34,050 --> 00:47:38,230
the realized cap i just want to pause here because it's actually really important it explains the

720
00:47:38,230 --> 00:47:44,090
next chart the realized cap prices every coin when they last moved on chain so the coins that you

721
00:47:44,090 --> 00:47:50,250
bought back in 2019 or 2013 if you still hold those utxos it's saved at that price point and

722
00:47:50,250 --> 00:47:55,690
the reason why I like this is it represents our as investors, as Bitcoiners, this is our proof of

723
00:47:55,690 --> 00:48:00,950
work. This is the money that we earned in our fiat job and we gave to Bitcoin to look after,

724
00:48:01,190 --> 00:48:05,990
right? It's when we allocated. It just crossed a trillion dollars. So Bitcoin is a two and a half

725
00:48:05,990 --> 00:48:11,830
trillion dollar market cap. We have collectively allocated a trillion dollars in our hard earned

726
00:48:11,830 --> 00:48:17,610
savings to this thing to look after. And by the same token, we're now sitting on 1.5 trillion

727
00:48:17,610 --> 00:48:19,090
of unrealized profit.

728
00:48:19,650 --> 00:48:21,070
Just let that sit with you for a second.

729
00:48:21,450 --> 00:48:23,530
Bitcoiners are sitting on a 1.5 trillion

730
00:48:23,530 --> 00:48:24,790
of unrealized profit.

731
00:48:25,230 --> 00:48:26,850
Berkshire Hathaway's market cap is a trillion.

732
00:48:27,290 --> 00:48:29,050
So we've got an additional half trillion worth

733
00:48:29,050 --> 00:48:33,290
of just profit relative to Rat Poison Squared's market cap.

734
00:48:33,990 --> 00:48:34,590
Kind of tough.

735
00:48:35,230 --> 00:48:37,210
Anyway, so go down to the next chart.

736
00:48:37,350 --> 00:48:38,410
I think this is a really good one

737
00:48:38,410 --> 00:48:40,710
to understand the supply and demand balance.

738
00:48:41,350 --> 00:48:43,510
So I mentioned that it is impossible

739
00:48:43,510 --> 00:48:46,110
for Saylor to be the only buyer in this market.

740
00:48:46,110 --> 00:48:50,110
so that's the first thing i want to put to bed for those who are listening the chart we're looking at

741
00:48:50,110 --> 00:48:56,250
here so the realized cap is like the on-chain market cap if you buy a coin at 10k and you sell

742
00:48:56,250 --> 00:49:02,670
it at 100k someone had to come in with an additional 90 000 to buy that coin so it's really

743
00:49:02,670 --> 00:49:07,070
representing a capital inflow and likewise if you buy the top and sell the bottom you've destroyed

744
00:49:07,070 --> 00:49:11,550
capital so your realized cap is going to increase and decrease as we all do this in aggregate

745
00:49:12,350 --> 00:49:16,270
So if you look at the 30-day change of the realized cap, the best way to think about this

746
00:49:16,270 --> 00:49:22,770
is capital flows. It is profit taken by one guy, but new demand by another guy. Newton's third law,

747
00:49:22,910 --> 00:49:28,330
equal and opposite forces. So if you look at the orange curve, we see these massive waves

748
00:49:28,330 --> 00:49:35,770
in the 2024 peak in March, in the January, November, January of this year, November of last year.

749
00:49:35,770 --> 00:49:42,510
and we're talking about $70 billion, $80 billion, $100 billion a month in profit-taking. But that's

750
00:49:42,510 --> 00:49:48,350
also demand. Profit-taking and demand, they're synonymous. So there's two narratives that go to

751
00:49:48,350 --> 00:49:53,590
bed. The first one, the purple, the dark purple you can see there is Saylor. It's just so much

752
00:49:53,590 --> 00:49:59,750
smaller than the amount of aggregate demand. There is so much more demand than Saylor. Very rarely

753
00:49:59,750 --> 00:50:06,290
is his buying more than like 10 to 15% at most of the overall demand profile. So it is literally

754
00:50:06,290 --> 00:50:12,230
impossible for Sale to be the only buyer because you're missing 85%. Now there's about 20%. The

755
00:50:12,230 --> 00:50:17,090
green zone is looking at the flows into the ETFs. So this is how much coin the ETFs are buying.

756
00:50:17,670 --> 00:50:22,610
So this puts to get bed another narrative that a lot of people have missed. They just say that

757
00:50:22,610 --> 00:50:25,990
all the price, it's not really profit taking. No one's actually taking profit. They're just

758
00:50:25,990 --> 00:50:32,930
rotating into the ETFs. The ETFs are five to six times, sorry, the profit taking is five to six

759
00:50:32,930 --> 00:50:39,210
times larger than the ETF flows. It's impossible. It is impossible for all of those coins that are

760
00:50:39,210 --> 00:50:44,390
taking profit, so to speak, at the top are just rotating into the ETFs. The ETFs should be 10

761
00:50:44,390 --> 00:50:48,670
times bigger for that to make sense. It just doesn't make sense. So I think those two narratives

762
00:50:48,670 --> 00:50:56,070
can be cleanly put to bed. Now, when I talk about sell side, in my opinion, it's super bullish.

763
00:50:56,070 --> 00:51:04,310
It is the most bullish thing that's happened this cycle. $55 to $65 billion a month in July and

764
00:51:04,310 --> 00:51:10,930
August of net sell side, and the market went down 12% and has just rallied to all-time highs.

765
00:51:10,930 --> 00:51:18,170
that is 55 to 65 billion dollars a month of demand that all the bears just aren't quite

766
00:51:18,170 --> 00:51:22,570
understanding is sitting underneath us so yes there's a lot of sell side and i'm actually i'm

767
00:51:22,570 --> 00:51:28,690
running a report as we speak the average age of coins that are being spent this cycle is much much

768
00:51:28,690 --> 00:51:36,350
larger than previous cycles and trending higher we are seeing a lot more old coins whales ogs like

769
00:51:36,350 --> 00:51:41,850
actual serious old money, lots more of it is coming back to market this cycle, like significantly

770
00:51:41,850 --> 00:51:47,910
more than any previous cycle. And it's sustained as we're going on since mid 2024. So that's an

771
00:51:47,910 --> 00:51:53,430
important thing to note. And we've barely pulled back 32%. You know what I mean? Like the demand

772
00:51:53,430 --> 00:51:58,790
profile of who is coming in, it's institutional in scale. If you look at the actual mempool,

773
00:51:59,410 --> 00:52:04,770
we have very, very few, like the mempool is almost empty. We don't have as many transactions,

774
00:52:04,770 --> 00:52:10,390
but the volume, the on-chain volume is like almost at all-time high. So what does that tell you?

775
00:52:10,390 --> 00:52:16,330
You've got few transactions, but it's almost all-time high volume, big money. We have huge

776
00:52:16,330 --> 00:52:21,670
pools of capital. What we don't have this cycle is retail at all. And I talk about this in terms

777
00:52:21,670 --> 00:52:27,290
of Bitcoiners as well. If you look at the 90-day change of all of the balances held in like UTXOs

778
00:52:27,290 --> 00:52:34,750
under one BTC, so the shrimp cohort, we've been in net distribution since 2023. The overall balance

779
00:52:34,750 --> 00:52:42,130
of small retail holders has been decreasing persistently since 2023. So there's a lot of

780
00:52:42,130 --> 00:52:47,390
sat stackers out there who are also taking profit, which is just, that's just part of the handing of

781
00:52:47,390 --> 00:52:50,710
the baton, right? We are seeing a major change in Bitcoin's ownership structure.

782
00:52:51,610 --> 00:52:56,010
Well, and that's one thing I worry, or not worry, I wonder with this cycle too,

783
00:52:56,390 --> 00:53:02,330
many people anchoring back to 2017 and 2021 specifically and saying, retail's not here,

784
00:53:02,330 --> 00:53:05,870
retail's down here and i'm sitting back thinking i don't think retail's coming this like i don't

785
00:53:05,870 --> 00:53:10,730
think retail has the money i don't think they have the money to come i think that's true and also you

786
00:53:10,730 --> 00:53:14,330
actually don't want retail to come because they come like sorry and i just say there's two ways

787
00:53:14,330 --> 00:53:18,650
to think about this you do want retail to come because you don't want wall street to be the only

788
00:53:18,650 --> 00:53:22,810
player in the market so that's the the more sovereign side of the equation but you don't

789
00:53:22,810 --> 00:53:27,250
want dumb retail to come because that means it's over so you kind of want to balance your views like

790
00:53:27,250 --> 00:53:31,150
if you're waiting for retail to come that means it's actually finished it's all it's all over so

791
00:53:31,150 --> 00:53:33,870
So I also just think that Bitcoin is a big enough market

792
00:53:33,870 --> 00:53:36,090
that you kind of need institutional money

793
00:53:36,090 --> 00:53:37,530
to move this thing now.

794
00:53:38,150 --> 00:53:40,310
It's just the nature of being a very large

795
00:53:40,310 --> 00:53:41,470
multi-trillion dollar asset.

796
00:53:42,390 --> 00:53:44,590
Retail just don't really move the needle.

797
00:53:44,830 --> 00:53:46,450
They're a small factor, but even so,

798
00:53:46,530 --> 00:53:47,610
after all these years,

799
00:53:48,050 --> 00:53:49,930
shrimp only have like 5% of the BGC.

800
00:53:50,350 --> 00:53:51,730
They're a very, very small component.

801
00:53:52,130 --> 00:53:54,370
Sailor's got, what is it, 3%, something like that.

802
00:53:55,430 --> 00:53:58,810
One entity versus all of the shrimp, comparable.

803
00:53:59,710 --> 00:53:59,850
Yeah.

804
00:53:59,850 --> 00:54:14,930
What are some of the sort of events or entrance into the market that you're keeping an eye out for in the coming months that would signal that things have not only changed but are changing massively?

805
00:54:15,830 --> 00:54:17,330
Are you expecting nation states?

806
00:54:17,710 --> 00:54:25,770
Are you expecting normalization of ripping cash flows into a Bitcoin treasury for profitable businesses?

807
00:54:25,770 --> 00:54:28,750
I think the last time we talked was right after Figma.

808
00:54:28,750 --> 00:54:33,830
filed their S9, or excuse me, their S1 to go public.

809
00:54:33,910 --> 00:54:36,330
And we were made aware that they had $70 million in IBIT,

810
00:54:36,430 --> 00:54:40,050
and they intended to buy $30 million of spot BTC as well.

811
00:54:40,950 --> 00:54:44,650
What are some of the sort of sticky demand drivers

812
00:54:44,650 --> 00:54:47,670
that you're looking out for that we haven't talked about yet?

813
00:54:47,670 --> 00:54:49,910
Obviously, we've got ETFs, treasury companies,

814
00:54:50,770 --> 00:54:53,730
family offices, and high-members individuals.

815
00:54:54,170 --> 00:54:56,470
But is there anybody else you're looking out for?

816
00:54:56,910 --> 00:54:58,170
I mean, no one specifically.

817
00:54:58,170 --> 00:55:02,910
I just think that we're watching a modern Bitcoin cycle and we've got to come into this thing

818
00:55:02,910 --> 00:55:08,490
recognizing that things have changed, right? It is measurably different. There's still going to be

819
00:55:08,490 --> 00:55:12,690
cycles. We're still going to have peaks and we're going to have troughs. But as we've seen so far,

820
00:55:13,010 --> 00:55:17,510
those peaks and troughs, they have a very different character. The volatility profile is very different.

821
00:55:18,050 --> 00:55:22,610
The derivatives landscape is evolving. Like as an analyst, for me, this is awesome because I'm

822
00:55:22,610 --> 00:55:27,690
watching Bitcoin grow up and mature. And there's all these different facets, right? Yes, I'm known

823
00:55:27,690 --> 00:55:28,990
for the on-chain side of the equation,

824
00:55:28,990 --> 00:55:30,810
but that's really just the substrate

825
00:55:30,810 --> 00:55:32,450
that stitches all these things together.

826
00:55:32,570 --> 00:55:33,630
It's like it's the settlement layer

827
00:55:33,630 --> 00:55:35,590
between all of these different vehicles.

828
00:55:36,190 --> 00:55:37,650
And really you've got to analyze

829
00:55:37,650 --> 00:55:39,710
and study all of these components.

830
00:55:39,710 --> 00:55:42,450
It's not as simple as just looking at old metrics

831
00:55:42,450 --> 00:55:44,290
and saying, oh, it's got to get to this height now.

832
00:55:44,710 --> 00:55:45,710
It's got to get to this level

833
00:55:45,710 --> 00:55:46,830
or it hasn't hit that level.

834
00:55:47,470 --> 00:55:48,870
I think a lot of people are going to hang on

835
00:55:48,870 --> 00:55:51,170
to old ideas way too long.

836
00:55:51,570 --> 00:55:54,230
I also think people are going to throw out things at work

837
00:55:54,230 --> 00:55:55,930
because they're like, oh, it's a new cycle now.

838
00:55:56,310 --> 00:55:56,970
That's broken.

839
00:55:56,970 --> 00:56:00,510
they're going to throw stuff out too quickly and they're going to hang on to stuff too late

840
00:56:00,510 --> 00:56:05,010
for me that's that's exciting because we get to live in this very very new

841
00:56:05,010 --> 00:56:10,250
modern idea of like be flexible allow the market to tell you where it wants to go

842
00:56:10,250 --> 00:56:14,490
look at what the etfs are doing look at what treasury companies are doing look at what

843
00:56:14,490 --> 00:56:18,090
sovereigns are doing like there's a whole bunch of different angles here that we've got to study

844
00:56:18,090 --> 00:56:22,470
and it's just all information like for me some people look at metrics and they go oh this metric

845
00:56:22,470 --> 00:56:27,110
has to do this. But to me, it's information. Tell me about the profit of investors. Where's

846
00:56:27,110 --> 00:56:30,890
the supply dynamics? How many coins are and aren't moving? What's the average age of them?

847
00:56:31,310 --> 00:56:35,350
All of this stuff just helps you understand who the buyers are, who the sellers are.

848
00:56:35,850 --> 00:56:43,650
One thing we've seen that's very different this cycle, in 2017 and 21, if you look at long-term

849
00:56:43,650 --> 00:56:49,770
holder supply, it was basically one big sell-side event. The bull was just one big sell-as-you-go-up

850
00:56:49,770 --> 00:56:55,110
type thing. We've had three waves already of that. And we saw that in that chart before.

851
00:56:55,650 --> 00:57:00,050
Massive sell side in 24. But then what was really interesting is long-term supply recovered,

852
00:57:00,230 --> 00:57:04,150
almost back to its high. Then we had the second wave of sell side in November, December,

853
00:57:04,690 --> 00:57:09,930
long-term hold of supply recovered. We're having the second or the third wave of net sell side as

854
00:57:09,930 --> 00:57:14,690
we speak. But here's the thing that it's telling you. On the way down for long-term supply, so

855
00:57:14,690 --> 00:57:19,450
price is up, supply is down. That's telling you a story about the sellers. Lots of sell side.

856
00:57:19,770 --> 00:57:25,110
But then the recovery is telling us about the buy side. Who bought those coins five months ago?

857
00:57:25,550 --> 00:57:29,830
They are hanging on to them. So that's one thing that's very different this cycle. We are not

858
00:57:29,830 --> 00:57:35,390
seeing this like, I'm going to exit my Bitcoin position because Bitcoin's overvalued. I'm taking

859
00:57:35,390 --> 00:57:40,290
profit because I've got to do X, Y, and Z, or my firm has to do it, or I need to retire or whatever

860
00:57:40,290 --> 00:57:44,290
it is. I'm going to take my profit. But then the buyer's like, hey, I really want to own this thing,

861
00:57:44,670 --> 00:57:49,170
stick it in my vault and sit tight, whether it's ETF or spot, doesn't matter. So that's a dynamic

862
00:57:49,170 --> 00:57:56,630
that's very, very different. We have this buy side that is willing to buy at 100K, 110K, 95K,

863
00:57:56,810 --> 00:58:02,210
and put it in the vault and sit tight. That is a very, very different dynamic. We've seen that

864
00:58:02,210 --> 00:58:07,590
in previous cycles, but not only with the hardcore hodlers. Now it's a bit more mainstream. The hodl

865
00:58:07,590 --> 00:58:11,950
idea is much more mainstream than I think people give it credit for. And that's super bullish.

866
00:58:13,050 --> 00:58:17,430
And do you think this has been made easier by derivatives? So the institutions get and buy

867
00:58:17,430 --> 00:58:24,190
and then hedge out. Yeah. And that's derivatives getting bigger. Yes, it massively changes market

868
00:58:24,190 --> 00:58:27,410
structure, but it gives them an opportunity to buy in the first place because they can hedge risk.

869
00:58:27,770 --> 00:58:32,110
And when they can hedge risk, they can take the risk in the first place. So it actually enables

870
00:58:32,110 --> 00:58:36,210
big money to come in. It's a natural part of market structure. There's no question it changes

871
00:58:36,210 --> 00:58:41,510
volatility profiles and you can call it paper Bitcoin and whatever else, but it also enables

872
00:58:41,510 --> 00:58:45,350
the initial buy side. You had that chart up before that was looking at the cash and carry trade.

873
00:58:45,350 --> 00:58:49,810
We saw the ETF flows and CME open interest trade alongside each other.

874
00:58:50,590 --> 00:58:56,930
Now we're seeing Ibit open interest trading much the same with what's going on with the ETF flows.

875
00:58:57,170 --> 00:58:58,190
So covered calls.

876
00:58:58,690 --> 00:59:03,430
And I mentioned before at 123K, there's an enormous call wall.

877
00:59:03,650 --> 00:59:05,790
People have sold covered calls at that zone.

878
00:59:06,410 --> 00:59:08,550
But you can see how these things move together.

879
00:59:09,210 --> 00:59:13,850
And what's really interesting, if you go back to pre-November last year,

880
00:59:13,850 --> 00:59:21,370
it doesn't matter what ETF you buy in order to put on a buy spot, sell the future on the CME.

881
00:59:21,550 --> 00:59:24,330
It doesn't matter which ETF you buy because they all track the Bitcoin price.

882
00:59:24,970 --> 00:59:29,030
So up until November, all of the ETS were growing at the same rate.

883
00:59:29,610 --> 00:59:32,250
We saw FBTC growing, even the small ones.

884
00:59:32,270 --> 00:59:37,010
It was a Pareto distribution, but IBIT had some advantage, but it wasn't just like tearing away.

885
00:59:37,010 --> 00:59:52,390
If we look at it since November, Ibit as of today just crossed over 58% of the overall AUM dominance, flows into all the ETFs except Ibit are flat for the last basically year, and Ibit is just tearing away.

886
00:59:52,810 --> 00:59:58,390
Now we're seeing that the Ibit options are the preferred vehicle for pretty much all these trades.

887
00:59:58,550 --> 01:00:04,250
Futures volume and futures open interest is kind of stagnant across like Binance and CME.

888
01:00:04,390 --> 01:00:05,070
CME is down.

889
01:00:05,210 --> 01:00:06,630
Binance is flat since November.

890
01:00:07,010 --> 01:00:08,550
Bybit is flat since November.

891
01:00:08,910 --> 01:00:11,090
We haven't seen that much growth in futures.

892
01:00:11,170 --> 01:00:15,410
And they used to be like the lion's share of trade volume.

893
01:00:16,010 --> 01:00:18,370
Options, absolutely parabolic.

894
01:00:18,510 --> 01:00:21,650
In every single metric you look at, just straight parabolic.

895
01:00:21,890 --> 01:00:24,590
So this is now the thing that is, in my opinion,

896
01:00:25,110 --> 01:00:27,890
the most under-discussed, biggest change to market structure

897
01:00:27,890 --> 01:00:29,370
since the ETFs went live themselves.

898
01:00:30,250 --> 01:00:34,170
The fact that Ibit options surpassed Deribit as quickly as they did

899
01:00:34,170 --> 01:00:35,190
is kind of mind-blowing.

900
01:00:35,770 --> 01:00:36,270
Oh, totally.

901
01:00:36,270 --> 01:00:39,390
And Deribit's been the market leader, like 95% dominance forever.

902
01:00:40,430 --> 01:00:40,550
Yeah.

903
01:00:41,290 --> 01:00:45,050
And I guess you mentioned paper Bitcoin summer.

904
01:00:45,490 --> 01:00:48,010
But James, Wall Street's going to take over Bitcoin.

905
01:00:48,130 --> 01:00:49,310
Price suppression is on the way.

906
01:00:50,810 --> 01:00:52,610
So that's what's right now.

907
01:00:52,970 --> 01:01:01,930
Right now, we've just seen a bunch of guys with covered calls at 123K suddenly go, hang

908
01:01:01,930 --> 01:01:03,170
on a second, we're at 125.

909
01:01:04,030 --> 01:01:05,070
Did I sell too much upside?

910
01:01:05,070 --> 01:01:11,190
Now, for those who aren't familiar with options, when you sell an option, if you sell a call

911
01:01:11,190 --> 01:01:15,030
option, you're basically selling the upside above that strike price.

912
01:01:15,030 --> 01:01:17,650
So you do collect an insurance premium.

913
01:01:17,650 --> 01:01:23,990
So if the price goes to 123 or 124, 125 and stays there for all of October, you actually

914
01:01:23,990 --> 01:01:24,910
win.

915
01:01:24,936 --> 01:01:29,256
the insurance premium that you collected for selling that covered call will more than offset

916
01:01:29,256 --> 01:01:35,796
your losses, generally speaking. If on the other hand, we go to 130 or 140 and the bulls really are

917
01:01:35,796 --> 01:01:41,496
in control and we start moving, all these guys are going to say, whoa, hang on a second. I got my

918
01:01:41,496 --> 01:01:48,556
$600 worth of insurance premium, but I just missed out on $25,000 worth of upside. Maybe I shouldn't

919
01:01:48,556 --> 01:01:54,136
do that again, right? And more people will come in. But these options, the way that options dynamics

920
01:01:54,136 --> 01:02:00,276
play out. Same as futures. If you've got a very large liquidation level, let's just say at 125k,

921
01:02:00,336 --> 01:02:06,656
let's say there's a giant guy who sold all these contracts, it may be easier for him to lean on

922
01:02:06,656 --> 01:02:10,976
the spot market because it's smaller than the futures market. Sometimes it's easier for them

923
01:02:10,976 --> 01:02:15,676
to lean on spot in order to keep their futures position alive. But we have to remember this

924
01:02:15,676 --> 01:02:22,916
paper Bitcoin summer, the bulls have the same artillery. They have the same leverage in play.

925
01:02:22,916 --> 01:02:27,556
and all the guys who've written those call options there's a bunch of guys who bought those call

926
01:02:27,556 --> 01:02:35,096
options and they want it to go to 130 140 so paper bitcoin summer in many ways it works on both sides

927
01:02:35,096 --> 01:02:40,896
of the ledger both teams have the same weaponry and it's like in many ways i might if i had to

928
01:02:40,896 --> 01:02:46,456
predict what goes on from here on if we go down to 110 i think the bull market's over because we

929
01:02:46,456 --> 01:02:50,776
just have no place being down there that's my like i think it deteriorates quickly below that

930
01:02:50,776 --> 01:02:56,116
that's not my base case my base case is i think we're heading higher if we're heading higher i

931
01:02:56,116 --> 01:03:02,056
think the era of chop solidation as we know it is probably going to take a back seat because i think

932
01:03:02,056 --> 01:03:07,116
we now enter the proper euphoria phase if we get proper legs from here i think it's off to the races

933
01:03:07,116 --> 01:03:12,656
and my base case is we probably get more corrections like actual proper sell-offs that

934
01:03:12,656 --> 01:03:17,776
make people shit themselves and go oh damn it's over and then it springboards higher again so

935
01:03:17,776 --> 01:03:22,896
I suspect we actually move into a more volatile regime. That's going to bring more options traders

936
01:03:22,896 --> 01:03:26,616
in. The more options traders who come in, the more they have to buy the underlying to sell the covered

937
01:03:26,616 --> 01:03:32,876
calls. Suddenly, you actually get more liquidity, more demand, more inflows. All of this assumes

938
01:03:32,876 --> 01:03:38,236
that we don't get an AI bubble that implodes and just nukes everything. But my base case is that

939
01:03:38,236 --> 01:03:42,276
we actually move into a much more volatile environment moving forward. Exactly. This chart,

940
01:03:42,676 --> 01:03:46,776
dead on. I can't stop thinking about this chart and when money dies.

941
01:03:47,776 --> 01:03:51,076
Well, like when money, like if you haven't read when money dies, go back.

942
01:03:51,156 --> 01:03:58,376
You only have to read like a few pages of it when they're talking about every paper boy was trading stocks and thought they were wealthy on pay.

943
01:03:58,736 --> 01:04:04,076
Like they thought they were wealthy, but they didn't realize that the denominator was getting blown out.

944
01:04:04,236 --> 01:04:06,216
I think it feels like we're living through that now.

945
01:04:06,296 --> 01:04:13,996
And to your point about increased volatility, like this could be what the Bitcoin price chart or the return chart looks like.

946
01:04:13,996 --> 01:04:17,936
over the next, I mean, this is a 10-year chart.

947
01:04:18,316 --> 01:04:20,316
Like this can be compressed to a year, two years

948
01:04:20,316 --> 01:04:21,436
moving forward from here.

949
01:04:21,656 --> 01:04:22,696
In the age of the internet, yeah.

950
01:04:22,836 --> 01:04:25,196
So I personally think volatility is mispriced.

951
01:04:25,536 --> 01:04:27,096
When I say volatility is mispriced,

952
01:04:27,176 --> 01:04:28,236
it basically means a bunch of people

953
01:04:28,236 --> 01:04:29,576
who've got very, very comfortable

954
01:04:29,576 --> 01:04:31,556
with that chart we looked at earlier.

955
01:04:32,076 --> 01:04:33,316
Vol just goes sideways.

956
01:04:34,056 --> 01:04:35,196
Markets lulled to sleep.

957
01:04:35,376 --> 01:04:36,876
Oh, we've tamed Bitcoin, right?

958
01:04:36,876 --> 01:04:38,176
We've tamed a wild horse.

959
01:04:39,036 --> 01:04:41,076
Next thing you know, volatility comes ripping back

960
01:04:41,076 --> 01:04:42,936
and it just blows people's socks off.

961
01:04:42,936 --> 01:04:55,921
And you know remember options are 100 to 111 So when shit happens it happens in a really big way So to me it going to be pretty exciting I looking forward to this next phase where Bitcoin kind of reminds everyone

962
01:04:56,061 --> 01:04:57,341
hey, you haven't tamed me just yet.

963
01:04:58,241 --> 01:04:58,421
Yeah.

964
01:04:58,961 --> 01:04:59,521
All right.

965
01:04:59,561 --> 01:05:02,901
What's your adjusted upside potential here?

966
01:05:03,961 --> 01:05:06,221
So I think it was January.

967
01:05:06,401 --> 01:05:07,301
I'm pretty sure it was January.

968
01:05:07,481 --> 01:05:10,201
I wrote a piece that was basically saying if we had a...

969
01:05:10,201 --> 01:05:12,301
So this is where we've rallied to 100K.

970
01:05:12,361 --> 01:05:13,741
I think we might have tagged 110.

971
01:05:13,741 --> 01:05:19,681
and I basically was looking at the amount of capital that we see come in per unit of market

972
01:05:19,681 --> 01:05:25,921
cap change. And my case back then was, I don't know if we have the real capital inflows yet to

973
01:05:25,921 --> 01:05:32,121
justify going to 150. So if we go into a different universe where Bitcoin had gone in January and

974
01:05:32,121 --> 01:05:37,121
February this year, let's say it had gone from 110 and had to reach 150. I think we would have

975
01:05:37,121 --> 01:05:41,821
come back down to this 90K region. I think it would have been a major top, big correction,

976
01:05:41,821 --> 01:05:45,621
probably would have looked much the same in many ways, like chopped around and then away we go

977
01:05:45,621 --> 01:05:51,681
again. But I don't think we were ready for 150. And my base case was, I think the ETFs approximately

978
01:05:51,681 --> 01:05:59,261
have to double in AUM, and then we probably justify 150. Well, in that process, if you take

979
01:05:59,261 --> 01:06:05,421
the ETFs and Saylor, just those two entities, which really are just like net buyers, we now

980
01:06:05,421 --> 01:06:10,661
have that doubling. So personally, I think we belong at 150. I think the difference is, I think

981
01:06:10,661 --> 01:06:14,761
we go to 150 i think we stay there that's the big difference now obviously it'll correct and

982
01:06:14,761 --> 01:06:19,241
consolidate and chop around but i think bitcoin deserves a three trillion market cap and i think

983
01:06:19,241 --> 01:06:26,221
the market's going to keep saying well how many more trillions if you get up to 160 180 200 possible

984
01:06:26,221 --> 01:06:32,941
for sure but also we're really on like the there's low probability of it happening we're in the like

985
01:06:32,941 --> 01:06:39,721
sub 10 sub 5 of all trading days markets are mean reverting and the thing about chop solidation

986
01:06:39,721 --> 01:06:44,121
when you're doing a mean reversion model and that's what i base a lot of my stuff on it's like

987
01:06:44,121 --> 01:06:49,001
how high do we have to go before the average bitcoiner is in so much profit that they have

988
01:06:49,001 --> 01:06:53,581
literally sold in every previous cycle the sell side we looked at before it was always because we

989
01:06:53,581 --> 01:06:58,201
hit some meaningful deviation away from the mean and the mean is some cost basis whatever it is

990
01:06:58,201 --> 01:07:05,161
200 a moving average you pick it if we get to 200k just about every mean reversion model is

991
01:07:05,161 --> 01:07:10,781
stretched into the far right tail it's just like improbable events happens during euphoric bulls

992
01:07:10,781 --> 01:07:17,161
unlikely we stay there 150 is kind of that like it's medium heated it's yeah we'll probably get

993
01:07:17,161 --> 01:07:22,521
some vol there it'll chop around but like we're not overheated we're just toasty so that's how

994
01:07:22,521 --> 01:07:26,541
i'm thinking about things at the moment i think we both deserve 150 i think a lot of people are

995
01:07:26,541 --> 01:07:30,421
going to look at it and go well all these metrics are overblown again but what if it keeps going

996
01:07:30,421 --> 01:07:34,441
and then they're going to buy the top and then it's going to sell back down you know i'm excited

997
01:07:34,441 --> 01:07:38,421
for that phase because I think volatility is going to come back in. We're in that late phase

998
01:07:38,421 --> 01:07:41,641
of the bull, but is this bull a little bit different, right? Are we just going to keep

999
01:07:41,641 --> 01:07:45,921
stair-stepping higher, but with a bit more vol? It takes some time for the market to adjust,

1000
01:07:46,021 --> 01:07:50,621
but it's exciting times. It really is. I know we got to wrap up here. You mentioned it earlier.

1001
01:07:50,741 --> 01:07:56,221
What are the metrics that people aren't going to throw away that probably they should throw away,

1002
01:07:56,501 --> 01:08:02,061
not focus on this time around? Good question. So I think a lot of people like to look at MVRV

1003
01:08:02,621 --> 01:08:04,141
And MVRV is a very powerful tool.

1004
01:08:05,261 --> 01:08:07,521
The realized price is one model

1005
01:08:07,521 --> 01:08:08,881
that I think a lot of people look at.

1006
01:08:09,341 --> 01:08:21,806
It the average cost basis for all BTC in the supply Includes Satoshi includes early miners all that stuff Now it currently trading I haven checked it for a while I think it like 155K something like that

1007
01:08:22,986 --> 01:08:26,866
We have gone below that in every single previous bear market, every one.

1008
01:08:27,786 --> 01:08:29,146
I don't think that happens anymore.

1009
01:08:29,446 --> 01:08:30,746
So I'm going to put it out there.

1010
01:08:30,806 --> 01:08:33,526
I think there's a new model that Dave Puel and I developed

1011
01:08:33,526 --> 01:08:35,606
in CoinTime Economics called the True Market Mean.

1012
01:08:36,426 --> 01:08:40,426
Now, the True Market Mean, basically, we filter out

1013
01:08:40,426 --> 01:08:47,926
do we process and get rid of the satoshi era coins the early miners people who just don't spend their

1014
01:08:47,926 --> 01:08:53,166
coins are long lost to history and the reason why this is important in order to be at the break-even

1015
01:08:53,166 --> 01:08:59,526
level which is like where the average bitcoiner is not bitcoin the average bitcoiner satoshi can't

1016
01:08:59,526 --> 01:09:05,986
respond well no i shouldn't say can't probably won't respond to a ripping bull market lost coins

1017
01:09:05,986 --> 01:09:11,706
can't really respond to a bull market. But the guy who bought the top can. He's going to sell,

1018
01:09:11,786 --> 01:09:16,706
he's going to buy, he's going to trade in and out. So the true market mean is currently about 80K.

1019
01:09:17,706 --> 01:09:22,026
That's where I think if we have some kind of a bear market, not necessarily at 80, but wherever

1020
01:09:22,026 --> 01:09:27,706
that true market mean is, that's where I think we start to bottom out. And the reason is that that's

1021
01:09:27,706 --> 01:09:33,766
currently the average cost basis for active investors. Sailor is at 75. The ETFs are at 80.

1022
01:09:33,766 --> 01:09:40,286
there's like four or five different levels all coincident with that price model so i think a lot

1023
01:09:40,286 --> 01:09:43,546
of people are going to expect that we go down to the realized price in the bear and i think that's

1024
01:09:43,546 --> 01:09:48,226
too bearish i just don't think we have that kind of a drawdown potential these days uh if we rip to

1025
01:09:48,226 --> 01:09:53,526
the upside right these models will all drift higher but i just don't think that looking for

1026
01:09:53,526 --> 01:09:59,486
the same thresholds to the upside the same thresholds to the downside in my view look at

1027
01:09:59,486 --> 01:10:04,546
the incentive, how much profit are people in? Look at the result. Are they taking profit? Are they

1028
01:10:04,546 --> 01:10:09,046
fearful? Are they actually taking losses? Are they not? This is where I live and I love it. I think

1029
01:10:09,046 --> 01:10:14,366
it's great. And quite frankly, Bitcoiners tell you the answer. When you see people capitulating and

1030
01:10:14,366 --> 01:10:19,586
just panicking, get me out at any price, bear market. When you see a couple of top buyers get

1031
01:10:19,586 --> 01:10:24,486
flushed out and then the market rebounds, you flush out the top buyers, away we go. So there's

1032
01:10:24,486 --> 01:10:29,846
these very distinct character shifts that we see. So look at these metrics more as information,

1033
01:10:30,246 --> 01:10:35,706
less as it's got to hit this level. Get rid of that kind of very basic horizontal line.

1034
01:10:36,526 --> 01:10:41,506
You're looking at incentives. It's all about incentives and then the actions and reactions to it.

1035
01:10:42,726 --> 01:10:47,666
I love that. Thank you for starting your day with us. It's Tuesday where you are.

1036
01:10:48,026 --> 01:10:48,426
It is.

1037
01:10:48,546 --> 01:10:54,346
It's Monday night where I am. I'm losing my voice. And it's a great check-in. I

1038
01:10:54,346 --> 01:10:56,306
I can't wait to do the next one,

1039
01:10:56,366 --> 01:10:58,506
which should be the beginning of next year.

1040
01:10:59,386 --> 01:11:01,986
And I'm sure a lot is going to happen between now and then.

1041
01:11:01,986 --> 01:11:05,726
So it should be a pretty fun catch up in January.

1042
01:11:06,626 --> 01:11:10,506
So let's, I think we at least tag 150 between now and then, at least.

1043
01:11:11,986 --> 01:11:13,486
You heard it here first, 150.

1044
01:11:14,286 --> 01:11:18,826
I think it's written into Destiny already, 150.

1045
01:11:19,166 --> 01:11:20,726
We could be at 150 by the end of the week.

1046
01:11:20,826 --> 01:11:21,146
Who knows?

1047
01:11:21,326 --> 01:11:21,666
It could be.

1048
01:11:21,946 --> 01:11:22,606
No, it could be.

1049
01:11:22,606 --> 01:11:26,286
Again, this is not a special call here, right? It's literally 25 grand, which is,

1050
01:11:26,686 --> 01:11:35,046
what is it, a 12.5% move or 20% move? Let's go. Yeah. I'm not calling for 150 by the end of the

1051
01:11:35,046 --> 01:11:50,391
week But I think the one thing that is clear is that we entered a new market dynamic People are waking up to the debasement trade They waking up to the fact that Bitcoin is scarce comparing it to gold saying why if it is digital gold where can it be

1052
01:11:50,391 --> 01:11:55,131
I think people are, obviously, we're here.

1053
01:11:55,251 --> 01:12:01,571
We've woken up to Bitcoin, but I do think we are at this incredible inflection point

1054
01:12:01,571 --> 01:12:04,751
where people are beginning to take it more seriously than they ever have,

1055
01:12:04,851 --> 01:12:06,111
which is important.

1056
01:12:06,211 --> 01:12:07,711
Part of the process should be expected.

1057
01:12:07,771 --> 01:12:09,651
but don't get over your skis.

1058
01:12:10,171 --> 01:12:11,691
Don't get too greedy.

1059
01:12:12,251 --> 01:12:14,891
Make sure you have cash, cash flow, most importantly,

1060
01:12:15,571 --> 01:12:16,911
and you're able to stay alive.

1061
01:12:17,071 --> 01:12:19,731
And that's why we bring James back every quarter

1062
01:12:19,731 --> 01:12:22,851
because you are, check the analyst at least,

1063
01:12:23,411 --> 01:12:27,291
is very level-headed, making sure that we're all staying in line

1064
01:12:27,291 --> 01:12:28,731
and not getting over our skis.

1065
01:12:29,391 --> 01:12:33,331
And the most sage advice of all time is just stay humble and stack sats.

1066
01:12:33,551 --> 01:12:36,011
You really don't have to deviate too far away from that plan.

1067
01:12:36,011 --> 01:12:41,171
the rest is just managing your own mental state making sure that you're never confused by why

1068
01:12:41,171 --> 01:12:45,591
things are happening never be a deer in the headlights like that's that's if i can if i can

1069
01:12:45,591 --> 01:12:48,911
help people not be a deer in the headlights whether we go to the moon or we go to doom

1070
01:12:48,911 --> 01:12:53,371
that is essentially what i like that's what i love doing i like helping people just go

1071
01:12:53,371 --> 01:12:58,451
why did bitcoin do what it did i don't care that it's up at 150k because i'm not a seller

1072
01:12:58,451 --> 01:13:03,511
i don't care that went to 75 because i'm also i'm a buyer i just don't care but i want to know why

1073
01:13:03,511 --> 01:13:04,931
because if I understand why,

1074
01:13:04,991 --> 01:13:06,191
it makes it so much easier

1075
01:13:06,191 --> 01:13:07,211
to dig through

1076
01:13:07,211 --> 01:13:08,491
and just get rid of all the noise

1077
01:13:08,491 --> 01:13:09,371
that you see in narratives

1078
01:13:09,371 --> 01:13:11,291
and just focus on what's really going on

1079
01:13:11,291 --> 01:13:12,031
because it's fascinating.

1080
01:13:12,871 --> 01:13:13,331
It really is.

1081
01:13:13,791 --> 01:13:16,011
If you want to download this full report,

1082
01:13:16,091 --> 01:13:17,931
you can go to unchained.com slash tftc.

1083
01:13:18,031 --> 01:13:19,291
If you want to read through it yourself,

1084
01:13:19,911 --> 01:13:21,851
throw it into an LLM,

1085
01:13:21,911 --> 01:13:23,491
see if that LLM is hallucinating.

1086
01:13:24,951 --> 01:13:25,991
You're absolutely right.

1087
01:13:26,471 --> 01:13:27,631
Go check that out there, James.

1088
01:13:28,351 --> 01:13:29,731
Thank you and congratulations

1089
01:13:29,731 --> 01:13:32,871
on the birth of your new child

1090
01:13:32,871 --> 01:13:34,631
since last time we met.

1091
01:13:35,191 --> 01:13:35,691
It's a big thing.

1092
01:13:35,851 --> 01:13:36,311
And likewise.

1093
01:13:36,891 --> 01:13:38,011
Welcome to the Bitcoin Dad Club.

1094
01:13:38,091 --> 01:13:38,651
It's a fun one.

1095
01:13:39,491 --> 01:13:42,111
Yes, I've always thought someone should do like,

1096
01:13:42,151 --> 01:13:43,231
because there's all these things,

1097
01:13:43,311 --> 01:13:45,491
like how do you deal with kids in AI, right?

1098
01:13:45,591 --> 01:13:46,611
Bitcoiners are going to be the ones

1099
01:13:46,611 --> 01:13:47,571
who we're trying to pioneer.

1100
01:13:47,751 --> 01:13:48,871
Like, how do you do this stuff right?

1101
01:13:48,951 --> 01:13:50,651
How do you teach them the right tools?

1102
01:13:51,211 --> 01:13:52,231
There's scope out there

1103
01:13:52,231 --> 01:13:53,711
for all these Bitcoin dads and moms

1104
01:13:53,711 --> 01:13:55,551
to just like, how do we do it?

1105
01:13:55,711 --> 01:13:57,391
Like, there's going to be problems and challenges,

1106
01:13:57,391 --> 01:13:58,811
but like, how do we as Bitcoiners

1107
01:13:58,811 --> 01:14:00,571
navigate this parenting thing?

1108
01:14:00,571 --> 01:14:02,691
Because it's weird for us.

1109
01:14:02,691 --> 01:14:03,751
It's going to be bloody weird for them.

1110
01:14:04,111 --> 01:14:05,351
It's definitely a double-edged sword.

1111
01:14:05,751 --> 01:14:11,271
Me and the boys, we've had some fun with AI purely for learning reasons.

1112
01:14:11,611 --> 01:14:14,631
If they ever have a question, it's like, okay, let's explore this.

1113
01:14:14,831 --> 01:14:17,271
We see a mushroom, a random mushroom while we're walking.

1114
01:14:17,411 --> 01:14:18,231
All right, let's take a picture.

1115
01:14:18,331 --> 01:14:19,071
Let's see what it is.

1116
01:14:19,071 --> 01:14:30,211
And yeah, there's definitely going to be a whole new sort of niche carved out of child AI that is safe for children.

1117
01:14:30,211 --> 01:14:32,691
AI literacy

1118
01:14:32,691 --> 01:14:33,691
yeah

1119
01:14:33,691 --> 01:14:34,571
I'm actually joining

1120
01:14:34,571 --> 01:14:35,891
that reminds me

1121
01:14:35,891 --> 01:14:36,631
I need to send an email

1122
01:14:36,631 --> 01:14:37,711
joining a task force

1123
01:14:37,711 --> 01:14:38,731
for AI

1124
01:14:38,731 --> 01:14:40,091
at my child's school

1125
01:14:40,091 --> 01:14:40,471
so

1126
01:14:40,471 --> 01:14:41,691
need to make sure

1127
01:14:41,691 --> 01:14:42,531
that they're doing it right

1128
01:14:42,531 --> 01:14:43,331
get involved

1129
01:14:43,331 --> 01:14:44,271
good man

1130
01:14:44,271 --> 01:14:45,231
no that's good stuff

1131
01:14:45,231 --> 01:14:45,991
that's what you need to do

1132
01:14:45,991 --> 01:14:46,971
and I can't

1133
01:14:46,971 --> 01:14:47,911
there's been a few podcasts

1134
01:14:47,911 --> 01:14:48,751
I've heard people saying this

1135
01:14:48,751 --> 01:14:50,011
like we as Bitcoiners

1136
01:14:50,011 --> 01:14:50,571
we've got to make

1137
01:14:50,571 --> 01:14:51,331
a positive change

1138
01:14:51,331 --> 01:14:52,291
you know like

1139
01:14:52,291 --> 01:14:53,371
if you just win and walk away

1140
01:14:53,371 --> 01:14:53,911
what's the point

1141
01:14:53,911 --> 01:14:55,331
the whole idea is to try

1142
01:14:55,331 --> 01:14:56,351
and make the best change

1143
01:14:56,351 --> 01:14:56,851
you can

1144
01:14:56,851 --> 01:14:58,651
within your sphere of influence

1145
01:14:58,651 --> 01:15:00,071
yeah

1146
01:15:00,071 --> 01:15:02,851
go forth and make some good change

1147
01:15:02,851 --> 01:15:04,831
be a good influence in the world and stay humble

1148
01:15:04,831 --> 01:15:05,431
stack sets

1149
01:15:05,431 --> 01:15:07,371
peace and love freaks