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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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You talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

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All the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,

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Bitcoin wins.

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In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Summer's over. Back to work.

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Back in the lab.

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It's time to get back to basics.

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This is why we're starting a post-Labor Day run of podcast here at TFTC

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with one of our oldest and dearest friends at the show, Matthew Mazzinczos.

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Get back to basics.

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people are people are going crazy out there

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they are buddy september is on good to be here good to see you

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congrats on your expanding brood by the way thank you

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very exciting very exciting yeah it's uh it's pretty wild you know the uh i just saw the

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tweet from my friend who uh does a lot of the power curve stuff cena and he was

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just posting the monthly closes and august is the worst worst month for bitcoin uh not not only

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bitcoin it's obviously down month generally but um that is over and moving into an exciting fall

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i think which typically is exciting for bitcoin especially every four years and uh i've been

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talking about it a lot on my streams i mean if one is concerned with adoption and price and all the

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rest uh i've been talking about it a lot uh recently just looking at the the multiples and

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the percentiles and where we are and i'm sure you have a long view as i do so a lot of this

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chatter doesn't concern me too much and i would encourage listeners dear listeners to uh to feel

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the same. That was a newsletter I wrote last night referencing the chart. The chart. The old

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power curve. The old power curve. I messed up. I got to go edit it. We've talked about this for

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years. I dropped power. What did you mess up? I dropped power law trend in there.

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Yeah, power law triggers people. You and I have been talking about this, I don't know how many

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years. I first posted it in 2018. So seven years. Yeah, it's, it's funny how there's,

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when you talk about like a model or an idea, the word law can trigger, trigger people. But I've

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always, yeah, I've always used the word regression or curve because it's, there's exponential

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regressions, there's linear regressions, and there are power regressions. So.

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well let's dive into what your friends we can look at the chart you want to look at the chart

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let's look at the chart because you said that cena said that august was the worst month

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ever or just this year uh it's it's traditionally uh bitcoin's worst month as far as performance

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yeah but that's a different thing that's just simply get simple simple uh monthly changes right

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yeah okay then i'll set up this conversation i read a newsletter last night the trend is your

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friend i don't know if you've been observing this but i've seen a lot of people within the bitcoin

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twitter sphere which is consistently losing signal throughout the years but i feel like

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it should be addressed for those people who are freaking out they don't think bitcoin the bitcoin

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price is going up fast enough despite the fact that we hit a new all-time high fresh new all-time

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I had $124,019 days ago now at this point.

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And I was trying to be a good analyst, if you will,

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and being like, okay, let's look at the numbers.

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And I went to the chart.

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And August ended at, the price of Bitcoin ended at $108,316.45.

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cents the power regression model at the end of august is showing 112 262 so we're two and a half

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percent ended the month of august two and a half percent below trend then i just trying to compare

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it to something with the end of july bitcoin price ended 115 848 the trend was saying 108

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993 so we were 6.2 above trend in july and so i was looking at those two months those two data

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points and saying, hey, it doesn't seem like the price is abnormally suppressed if we're

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looking at this model.

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Yeah.

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There's a few different things going on there and we can go through all of them.

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But I think the overall power trend is something.

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So we should talk about that first.

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But then also we have this idea of paper Bitcoin that's leaking its way back into the space,

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I've noticed recently into the meme sphere.

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and we also have the idea of i mean it's tangential and related but you know institutions

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bitcoin treasury companies uh sort of manipulating the price with excess leverage uh sort of unbacked

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by real value and there may be truth to some of the some of that but um the overall picture as

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far as i can tell and i've been you know like i said i've streamed about this most days european

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morning time. Nothing has really changed underlying I haven't seen any of those signals.

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And I'm definitely a sort of a if it's not broke, don't fix it type of person. So so we can jump

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into it. Let me share here, Logan. There we go. So this is the old power trend. I can't remember

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I'm now putting it always on this 10, every 10 percentiles.

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So you can see sort of exactly where we are.

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Before I was doing kind of like sigmas, like one sigma, two sigma.

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There's less bands.

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But anyway, very quickly, so people understand why is it power?

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Why is Bitcoin power not exponential?

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is this is a log left scale, log linear.

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And you can see it has this nice sloping,

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nice downward, I'm going to zoom in here a little bit,

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this nice sort of a little bit fast at the beginning,

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but then a gradual descending, decelerating growth rate,

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which is how networks grow, cities grow.

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It's very sustainable.

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And it turns out that Bitcoin is growing like that.

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If Bitcoin was growing like the stock market or gold or the bond market or any other TradFi market, actually, then when you put this on log linear, log scale, you would get a straight line for the trend line.

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And we can show I can show you some of those as well.

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But it doesn't.

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It has this nice gradually sloping curve, which is the 96 percent R squared on the power trend.

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another thing i'll just show you very briefly top level if i show you log bottom here and i know that

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for the listeners it's a little bit better if you watch this one but so a power a power trend

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will turn into a straight line on log log so i do log bottom whoops i need to reset this

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sorry logan might need to cut that just did it once and now it's uh

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it's buggy on log bottom. Ignore the January's at the bottom. But anyway, you basically see it's a

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it becomes a straight line. Okay, we're not gonna look at this long this way. But

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power trends become a straight line on log, log scale. And the point is, what does that mean?

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It just means basically that as the thing grows, it grows proportional with itself.

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And that's different than, like I said, every other Tradify market, stocks, bonds, gold, because they grow constantly at an exponential rate, which more often than not, eventually will lead to some sort of a collapse or a crisis.

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I actually spent the Nordic circuit of Bitcoin conferences here this summer talking about this at Riga and Helsinki and Prague as well.

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It's not really Nordic, but.

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And.

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We talked about this last time.

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You remember that idea, this Jeffrey West book?

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Mm hmm.

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And so just to remind people.

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Well, let me hold off on the Jeffrey West, actually.

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because there's so many topics to introduce.

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Basically, Bitcoin is not growing.

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It's just not growing like other stuff.

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And before you get too disappointed,

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or you think that it's not exciting enough,

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or it's not growing fast enough,

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I can show you pictures of the growth rate,

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charts of the growth rate,

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and it's still pretty solid.

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All right, so if you look in here,

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we got every 10th percentile.

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The zeroth percentile would be 0.1x the trend.

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It's way down here.

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that's like extremely rare obviously and the hundredth percentile is 7.8x the trend

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that's way up here probably never going to happen again either of those never say never i know but

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probably never based on how uh the network has been growing that leave us that that leaves us

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the 10th to the 90th and if you just zoom in on the last two to three years here uh remember 2024

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before it was the start of the ETF approvals,

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we've been pretty much bouncing around the trend line,

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the black trend line.

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And the trend line itself sits at about the 65th percentile.

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So that means two thirds of the time,

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the price is below this black line.

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One third of the time it's above.

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It is true.

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We're recording this on the second.

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So it's 109K price when I pulled in the model.

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So my trend line,

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which is different than some other people's trend line,

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some people a little bit lower but my trend line is 112 000 so we're just below it um for a couple

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days but again to me as far as i'm concerned it's like nothing to worry about it's totally normal

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it's all totally normal behavior and um you know as a very very basic rule of thumb

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if you're below this black line you could kind of argue that this is an undervalued

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time in Bitcoin's life.

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And if you're above the black line,

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you could also argue on the flip side

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that it's slightly overvalued.

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But there's a lot of caveats there.

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We have the four-year cycle to contend with

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and a lot of other things.

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So, you know, a lot goes into that.

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I could stop there if you want to.

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I just want to comment on the psychology

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of the people who are stressed

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that Bitcoin isn't pumping.

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as hard as they expect it to.

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I mean, if you look at the chart,

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you can see early years,

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massive explosions in price corrections.

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And I think you mentioned it,

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like the introduction of the ETF.

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Since then, we've had sort of a more calculated

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and less volatile step up and to the right,

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which I prefer.

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But I do think many market participants,

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even if you came in earlier,

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You just heard the lore of the crazy four year cycles and you wait for, what is it, 18 months after the halving and that's when fireworks happen.

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And I think many people are anchoring to those expectations and becoming sorely disappointed that they're not materializing in the way that they would expect and underappreciating the fact that we have this somewhat very regimented and what's the word I'm looking for?

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Just stable.

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Structured, yeah.

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Yeah, structured.

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Up and to the right.

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It's boring.

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but it's still moving in the right direction.

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Yeah. And I would comment on that too, because I sort of am on record of saying,

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again, like I said, if it's not broke, don't fix it. I'm not discounting the four-year cycle idea.

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A lot of people are. A lot of people are saying now is going to be just sort of a more stable,

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less volatile Bitcoin. But my next question would be, at what trend? What is it going up? Because a

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lot of these people either don't understand the power curve or don't don't haven't read about it

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so from that side uh i would not be too worried like i think there's still plenty of time to

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overshoot um and have this euphoria which is you know again for if you do want to play the markets

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or you want to take some coins off the table for some lifestyle changes or whatever it might be

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totally fine uh on the flip side if you're a hodler if you're younger just getting started um

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or you're older and you have a stack and you're not thinking of like taking too much risk

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you know again it's caveat emptor i mean the hardest thing in the world to do speaking from

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someone i know you as well have been through these cycles the hardest thing to do really is to sell

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Bitcoin. It doesn't matter what price. No one knows the future. And if you sell it,

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and the price doesn't collapse as much as you think, and you can't buy as many Bitcoin as you

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would like from that exit that you made into fiat before, whatever, into gold, whatever,

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then that would be extremely disappointing. So that's why I totally respect the HODL meme. I

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About the four year cycle, I honestly I wouldn't count it out.

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I mean, we haven't been through it, right?

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It is right now.

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This is the for sure with 2017 for sure with 2013.

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This occurred both times in November, December.

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2021 was a little bit of a wild one.

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This time could also be a wild one.

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You know 2021 we had a double top But the first top was actually probably the real top If you look at other metrics which we can talk about like the price extending over say minor

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revenue or something, it was actually probably the first one. And then the second one was sort of,

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uh, I know people have called it the scam top or whatever, but it was, that was actually, um,

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kind of like a it was a huge debt cat bounce but it was not you know it was just not uh

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in relationship to other metrics when it usually extends and you know likewise in 2013 we had a

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double top although in that top it was the second top was five times higher so you never quite know

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um we could always be thrown for a loop with uh with bitcoin but you know there's

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enormous returns to be made here compared to any other traditional market. And if all you want to

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do is hodl, great. If you want to ape in and out with 10% of your stash, also great. So yeah, I don't

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think that there's any reason to discount actually the four-year cycle yet. And we can look at some

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charts if you want to look at that, talk about paper Bitcoin and all the rest.

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unchained.com slash TFTC. That's unchained.com slash TFTC. And also, if you're using Unchained,

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I can show you actually, let's look at the, let's, let's look at one more here. So

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just so everybody knows, at least my opinion on where the price could go

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by the end of the year. So here's what I would say. If you look at this every 10th,

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right, we're zooming in to basically the trajectory here or the price history.

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Bitcoin is traditionally during the booms very easily gotten above the 80th percentile each time.

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it's in the earliest booms before that is 2021 it's gotten above the 90th percentile very easily

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each time 2021 again was a little bit of a little bit of a ringer the first top which is what i

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think was the real top this time which was early it was a very easily above the 90th for you know

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a month two three months three to four months is actually typically all the time that we get above

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the 90th percentile. And then it barely got above in November 2021, right where it should be. So

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again, just to remind you, these dotted lines are multiples above trend, and then how percentage

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wise how often that has occurred. So it's been pretty easily done for the prior three tops. But

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if this time we're different, and if it gets invalidated, or you know, this four year cycle,

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So for me, I think it would be somewhere around.

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For sure, it would be Bitcoin not getting above the 90th percentile, which it did do in 2021 and all prior cycles, and probably even I'd say the 80th.

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Like that would be the only reason that I would say.

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OK, Bitcoin really is on this totally different trajectory that doesn't have anything to do with the halvings or excitement after, you know, 18 months after the halving.

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just general hype cycles that markets have, I would say if it doesn't get above the

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80th percentile, which by the way, is 1.3x the trend. And if we look at the end of 2025,

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the trend is 125k. So 1.3x is 170k. So if we don't get above 170k by year end,

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or into like the first couple months of next year, then I would say,

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okay time to rethink the idea of the four-year cycles but not doing any technical analysis not

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looking at these impulses or elliott waves or whatever we're just looking at the power trend

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and where the price typically is over or under trend every four years it's actually pretty clear

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it's pretty clear what's been happening and there's nothing to me that would invalidate

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this idea until it's invalidated and it hasn't been invalidated yet.

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So that's actually a, I would say that's a bullish message.

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If you're listening.

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Hasn't been invalidated yet.

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Could potentially be.

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Could potentially be.

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May not be.

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Turn on the 90th percentile there.

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What will we have to do to.

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Yep.

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So the 90th is 2x.

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Pretty rare, right?

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So that means 90% of the observations would always be below this dotted line.

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So 2x is 250.

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Okay.

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And I can throw on, by the way, we can make this even more refined and go to the top 90th and above.

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And we can look at the 91st, 92nd, 93rd, 94th, 5th, all the way up to the 100th as well.

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But very simple rule of thumb.

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yeah i think 2x based on the prior trends could easily happen by the end of the year but if it

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doesn't say in the next six months then i would consider the four-year cycle being invalidated or

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different or something so here's now let me show you this is the top 10 starting from the 90th now

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This is very exciting, very exciting rainbow. Take off the hundredth. It's extremely rare.

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Now let's look at what happened. So the thesis, by the way, that people should understand is as

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Bitcoin gets more adopted, these peaks do come down, right? So notice, I now have the 99th

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painted on this chart. It has for a couple of weeks in 2013 and in 2017, gotten above the 99th

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percentile, which is 4.6x the trend. Okay, so 4.6x the power trend, which I told you is 125k at the

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end of the year. Bitcoin has achieved that every prior cycle, but it did not in 2021. Okay, so this

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is where we talked about softer tops, and I agree with that idea. So if we take off the 99th, 98th,

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even 97th, then we start to see what we hit in 2021. It was a 96 percentile of 2.8x,

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round it here, 3x. And this is where I would say, again, totally base case, totally possible

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would be 2 to 3x the trend. So if you just look at this now, go to the end of 2025, 125k,

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2x happened every time pretty easily. That's 250k Bitcoin. 3x, roughly, that's 375k Bitcoin.

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although i will admit with lower highs on each one of these cycles i think this is indeed

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the max i would be very surprised that bitcoin went above 350 or 375k by the end of the year

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but i think it's possible

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bullish again i heard we're getting to 444 000 in november who who wrote that

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I don't even know if he's a microstrategy guy, but Josh, man.

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Well, 400,000 is the 97th.

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Let's go 98th.

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So yeah, on that 98th percentile, somewhere between the 97th and 98th percentile.

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It's pretty rare.

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It's pretty rare.

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You got to think about what that's saying.

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Three and a half times the trend line, basically.

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97 97 and a half percent of the time it doesn't happen uh so this is how i'm looking at it

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basically this doesn't tell you the time right it's kind of like a caveman analysis honestly

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because it's we're just assuming the four-year cycle four-year cycle doesn't happen or if

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extends or not i can't tell you that from this chart but what i can tell you is if the market

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gets heated if people get you know if grandma's getting excited this thanksgiving in the u.s and

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giving her grandchildren money to buy Bitcoin, then perhaps it could happen again.

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But yeah, absolutely possible that we have lower highs and even possible that we get out of the

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four-year cycle. But I'm still not seeing it based on the price action and based on where we are.

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I'm not seeing it. And we can look at some other charts as well to maybe further talk about that.

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But base case, what I'm thinking, two to three X, the trend by the end of the year or the first couple of months in the next year.

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That's 250K to 375K.

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That would be how I would look at it.

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I'll take that.

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The humble, humble 375, humble 250.

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Yeah.

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And you can imagine on the back end of this, by the way, because people, this is maybe people reset the narrative at this time.

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going to be like, oh, because remember this happened in 2021, by the way. People like to

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reset the narrative and say, oh, Bitcoin is now on this trend and is going here forever. Well,

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stick with this trend line, which I've come back to time and time again.

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This black line, Marty, has basically remained consistent since 2016. It's like the best trend

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line in all of finance, way better than anything else, and certainly better than the old stock to

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flow ratio. So, you know, take comfort in that. Doesn't mean it has to go there. But if people

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start to think, oh, we're now at a new plateau, you know, the old Irving Fisher sort of talk,

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and we're at 350k Bitcoin. And then all of a sudden, you have, you know, X number of Bitcoin

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treasury companies which have levered their balance sheet up, and their convertible debt

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facilities with less than three year duration to buy a lot of Bitcoin.

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And then the price starts to get soft. And then, you know, the short market participants get a

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little bit excited. You could see absolutely a cascading liquidations of these Bitcoin treasury

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companies. You could see, who knows, it might go as high as the White House. I'm not saying

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that it will. I'm not saying that it will. I'm just saying you can imagine plenty of scenarios

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where this whole thing rinses and repeats. Just on a completely different scale. Matt and I have

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been talking about this, Matt Adel and I, on Rabbit Hole Recap for the better part of

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a year and a half now. With this cycle, you have nation states and Wall Street getting into the

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degeneracy and we could see blow-ups unlike anything before it would make a FTX and the

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ICO bubble look funny in retrospect yeah precisely and I think for those blow-ups to happen you

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probably got to get a little bit extended on the high side first I think doesn't have to be the

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case but you know basic stuff at the end of the day uh you know I think a player like Saylor

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Obviously, you know, he's completely changed his, the makeup of their balance sheet, you know, with the new facilities and they've gotten away from the converts, you know, with pretty short duration at the beginning.

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Which, you know, in those days of 2022 was looking a little bit difficult for him, as you recall.

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but i i certainly think someone like him is uh and his uh his cohorts his colleagues around the uh

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around the micro strategy table are expecting stuff like this but the next

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500 bitcoin treasury companies i mean would you like to buy a convert from them i don't know

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i don't think too much about it i know there's a lot of people that strong feelings about bitcoin

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treasury codes but try bitcoin and be happy there is but let's let's dive into this of the paper

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bitcoin there's a ton of people out there who are looking at the price chart saying do something

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you're not high enough yet and pointing at bitcoin treasury companies etfs and saying

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hey they're creating paper bitcoin coin bases re-hypothecating giving

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allocations to the same Bitcoin to multiple players.

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And this is why the price is going down. Throw in CME Futures

339
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and the games that Wall Street have played

340
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with other assets like gold. And many are wholly convinced

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that the price is being suppressed by

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the combination of rehypothecation and

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financial engineering using derivatives.

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And here we can easily just look at a great chart from our friend Checkmate, great on-chain analyst.

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And this is the light pink.

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There are above one year.

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But as you can see, when the price is really skyrocketing, yeah, there's a lot of sub one-year hodlers that exit when we get over 100K, particularly this little spike at the start of this year.

348
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But as we gone on there have been more and more And you know that that ratio that mix above one year HODLers just one year one year and above becomes pretty large

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I mean, for a lot of the middle part of this year, it was 50% and above of the coins that were taking profit.

350
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Which cohort did they come from?

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way more than or at least 50 50 but sometimes i think clearly 60 70 percent of the mix

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was above one year hodlers sometimes you know five so there's plenty of coins that are coming

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onto the market and as check says here uh you know nobody ever sells their bitcoin they said

354
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it was all paper bitcoins they said i think that summarizes it pretty clear uh to me but why would

355
00:30:54,660 --> 00:31:02,860
the OG sell? Do they know something? Do they know the top is in? Is that why they're unloading coins

356
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and converting the fee? I think not at all. I think OGs are not watching your podcast. I think OGs

357
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are not thinking about the power curve. I think OGs bought Bitcoin at sub $10 and they're enjoying

358
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$100,000 gains as they should. As they should. Agreed. The psychology of this is

359
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having been a part of it for 12 years now

360
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going on 13

361
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just observing it

362
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throughout the different cycles throughout the years

363
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it is one of the most interesting

364
00:31:33,620 --> 00:31:35,580
things to me is how the psychology

365
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evolves especially as you get

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new entrants coming in like the

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class of

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23, 24 even go back to

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like 2020

370
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seems like they're

371
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they're young fawns looking

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going to get their sea legs under them

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completely unaware of

374
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how this, not unaware, but

375
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I don't know, to me

376
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there's a ton of pattern recognition

377
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particularly on the sentiment side

378
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and the sentiment this summer

379
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and it's funny, like I said, August is historically

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the worst month, summer's historically

381
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slow, not only in Bitcoin, just

382
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traditional markets, you have the

383
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concept of the summer doldrums

384
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and it's funny when

385
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people are unable to recognize

386
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:20,640
these seasonal

387
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,760
and cyclical trends that have been pretty constant,

388
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not only through Bitcoin, but through financial markets more generally.

389
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And they succumb to the monotony of boring price movement.

390
00:32:35,300 --> 00:32:37,000
Yeah, and we should look at some other charts,

391
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but just to piggyback on what you said there,

392
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I think that's a crucial point.

393
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And I think, you know, five years ago,

394
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or certainly after even the activation of SegWit,

395
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even the 2017 top, every time that there are tops,

396
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the narrative actually changes to the complete opposite of what you said, right? We flip onto

397
00:32:57,500 --> 00:33:05,000
a new plateau, new money, this is going to be something that the world has never seen,

398
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all of which are points that I very much agree with. But the timescale is way different,

399
00:33:10,980 --> 00:33:24,120
I think, than people are expecting. And the idea that Bitcoin will sort of absorb the financial

400
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:30,340
system next week, next month, or even next year, I got another few charts to show you on that one.

401
00:33:30,540 --> 00:33:37,840
It's just too ludicrous. All right. I mean, as another quick example, like Bitcoin Max,

402
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:44,000
I think has done, well, actually I know Max, but the training 12 months, let's just say,

403
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:49,280
has done something like $7 trillion worth of transactions on chain. All right, if you take

404
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:55,540
everyday transactions, roll them at the price, about $7 trillion. Fedwire, which is the core

405
00:33:55,540 --> 00:34:04,560
of the financial system, one, only one of central bank, central banks around the world's real-time

406
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,740
gross settlement systems. When I say real-time gross settlement, I mean, it works just like

407
00:34:07,740 --> 00:34:14,700
Bitcoin. It's literally banks transferring reserves like payments for stuff that they owe to other

408
00:34:14,700 --> 00:34:22,300
banks, like checks to clear and all the rest, right? That's called Fedwire. That does 1.1

409
00:34:22,300 --> 00:34:30,860
quadrillion dollars a year. So you're at $1,100 trillion that the Federal Reserve does versus

410
00:34:30,860 --> 00:34:34,980
seven that Bitcoin does. Bitcoin can absolutely get there. And the only thing that has to happen

411
00:34:34,980 --> 00:34:41,780
actually is the price to rise. But it's just not going to happen overnight. And so going back to

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00:34:41,780 --> 00:34:46,540
the power curve, I think that the power curve actually should give a lot of people a lot of

413
00:34:46,540 --> 00:34:50,600
comfort and nobody still is paying attention to it. Again, I posted this stuff before the stock

414
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:55,600
to flow ratio with still with a marketing budget of zero dollars. I know, but most people don't

415
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,320
sort of understand it, think about it, whatever. But it's just the trend line

416
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:05,060
that is showing how typically networks have grown. The internet actually followed a power curve.

417
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,200
Crucially, not if you think about that S curve network adoptions,

418
00:35:10,580 --> 00:35:14,760
crucially, not like cell phones and other things like dishwashers or whatever.

419
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:24,060
Usually, if there's a company that has a sort of a large share, technology products will not follow

420
00:35:24,060 --> 00:35:30,420
this. They follow more that S curve where that sort of explosion in the middle. Bitcoin, the

421
00:35:30,420 --> 00:35:36,160
internet, other networks, cities themselves, they don't have that. They have a decreasing rate of

422
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,980
growth, which if you looked at it sort of as a supply, it looks exactly what we saw with the

423
00:35:39,980 --> 00:35:46,540
price on log scale, sort of faster at the beginning, slower over time. And so there's like huge comfort

424
00:35:46,540 --> 00:35:52,480
there. And I actually, you know, again, I keep saying I should reference charts and we just talk

425
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:59,120
about it, but because I like to try to show people facts with what I actually say. I believe,

426
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:04,080
Marty, that like 95% of what we see in the market today in Bitcoin is the power curve of network

427
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:08,480
adoption itself. I don't think it has anything to do with the money supply, the Fed, interest rates,

428
00:36:08,980 --> 00:36:15,980
like literally 5%. That's sort of my latest thesis. And it's not really as of late. I've

429
00:36:15,980 --> 00:36:20,920
been saying it for a while now, but that's what I think. I think you first brought this up

430
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:27,540
earlier this year and i completely agree and i think that again if you want to anchor in confidence

431
00:36:27,540 --> 00:36:38,540
and filter out all the noise i think anchoring to that and just taking price and exogenous factors

432
00:36:38,540 --> 00:36:43,480
like monetary policy and geopolitics and macroeconomics out of it and just view it as

433
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:52,140
network adoption, uh, of which price is just, uh, a, an output of that adoption. I think it makes a

434
00:36:52,140 --> 00:36:53,120
lot of sense. More and more.

435
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:54,680
Your representation of it.

436
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:55,100
Yeah.

437
00:36:55,260 --> 00:37:00,500
Of this endogenous idea as you, to use your, uh, continue your analogy. It's, it's just within

438
00:37:00,500 --> 00:37:04,920
Bitcoin itself. That's what we see. We're looking at the adoption of Bitcoin, the system,

439
00:37:05,020 --> 00:37:06,560
when we look at the price curve.

440
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:13,780
and i i do have to uh give you props too for that fed wire comparison i've actually used that

441
00:37:13,780 --> 00:37:19,900
a lot at 1031 talking to prospective lps when they really get in the weeds and they're trying to

442
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:27,080
understand a good comp to bitcoin and many people naively will say visa mastercard

443
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:33,780
venmo paypal it's like no it's the fed fed wire central bank settlement and that chart you have

444
00:37:33,780 --> 00:37:42,440
of the sort of multiple of Fedwire volumes and settlements compared to Bitcoin over time.

445
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,480
This one is one of the highest signal charts out there.

446
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:54,760
Agreed. Agreed. So there's your 1.1 trillion, 1,158. Sorry, there's your 1.1 quadrillion,

447
00:37:55,200 --> 00:38:00,060
1,158 trillion. That's what Fedwire does over trailing 12 month basis.

448
00:38:00,060 --> 00:38:05,840
in transfer value, or some people even call that payment volume, whatever you want to call it.

449
00:38:06,780 --> 00:38:15,120
Bitcoin, seven. It's maxed out at, yeah, closer to 20 back in 2022 when trailing 12 months, but

450
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:23,520
seven at the moment. And then this supremacy, as you see, we used to be very, this is log scale on

451
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:29,700
the right, but this black line, we used to be millions of times smaller, or more properly stated

452
00:38:29,700 --> 00:38:35,100
Fedwire was millions of times bigger than Bitcoin. Now, it's only 157 times bigger.

453
00:38:36,860 --> 00:38:42,900
Still huge. So again, keep it in perspective. Don't get worried. We're going to wake up tomorrow

454
00:38:42,900 --> 00:38:47,120
and there's still going to be a Fedwire. I know people hate that. I'm not defending them. I'm not

455
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:51,660
saying it's great that we have to rely on these Jackson Hole speeches and all the rest, but it's

456
00:38:51,660 --> 00:38:57,280
going to be there. It's going to be there. So keep that in mind. Use these things as a benchmark to

457
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:03,280
stay grounded spend time with your family stack sats and if you want to like i said ape in and out

458
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:09,220
on the extremes uh we have very good tools to do that

459
00:39:09,220 --> 00:39:18,960
yeah here's another one by the way while we're not going like to zero in fiat tomorrow even

460
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:26,820
though fiat is a terrible storer of value so this is the through tune only the top five

461
00:39:26,820 --> 00:39:31,160
broad money supplies, meaning usually M3, it should be M3.

462
00:39:32,720 --> 00:39:38,460
So US M3, 36 trillion, Euro M3, 19. These are all dollar numbers.

463
00:39:39,540 --> 00:39:44,880
The yen, 11 trillions. China only publishes an M2, which I can explain the difference,

464
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:51,940
45 trillion. And then the sterling, they publish an M4, which is even more liquid,

465
00:39:51,940 --> 00:40:00,640
is 4.3 trillion. But the broadest money supplies, if you add that all up is 116 trillion. And I think

466
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:06,240
in value, and I think that you can add another 20% for the rest of the world. I need to get a

467
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:11,840
full chart ready eventually for you when I come on, but I just don't have it yet. So you're getting

468
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:19,260
somewhere close to 145, 150 trillion, probably in global money at this point. And then the question

469
00:40:19,260 --> 00:40:24,100
is, you know, people like to talk about 100 trillion. We're definitely getting there for

470
00:40:24,100 --> 00:40:28,340
sure. But it's not now. It's not tomorrow. It's not next month. It's not next year. It's going to

471
00:40:28,340 --> 00:40:34,720
be a while from now. And by the way, all the other stuff is going to keep going on with their madness

472
00:40:34,720 --> 00:40:36,020
as well.

473
00:40:36,380 --> 00:40:40,080
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474
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482
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483
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484
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485
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486
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487
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488
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489
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490
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491
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thinking in sats. Go check it

492
00:41:55,540 --> 00:41:57,840
out at opportunitycost.app

493
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,680
That's opportunitycost.app

494
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:01,820
I know we just

495
00:42:01,820 --> 00:42:03,420
gave the whole spiel of

496
00:42:03,420 --> 00:42:05,720
power trend network

497
00:42:05,720 --> 00:42:06,280
adoption

498
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,340
endogenous factors versus

499
00:42:09,340 --> 00:42:11,400
exogenous factors and exogenous

500
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,540
is probably not as

501
00:42:13,540 --> 00:42:15,200
impactful as the endogenous just

502
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:19,900
pure peer-to-peer adoption of Bitcoin driving up the price.

503
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,920
However, the exogenous factors are getting more interesting.

504
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:25,900
We were talking about a few charts.

505
00:42:26,580 --> 00:42:28,140
If we think about podcast content,

506
00:42:28,500 --> 00:42:32,280
it could be 95% is indeed the exogenous factors.

507
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:34,720
And I understand that very well.

508
00:42:34,720 --> 00:42:36,340
So we can talk about that as well.

509
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:42,520
Before we get, I know you're not a fan of him at all,

510
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,760
but did you catch the Richard Werner, Tucker Carlson interview?

511
00:42:46,460 --> 00:42:48,020
I did not.

512
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,300
I mean, a few things about that.

513
00:42:51,340 --> 00:42:54,480
First of all, didn't that guy say that the CIA created Bitcoin?

514
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,280
He did years ago.

515
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:02,640
But I've heard from behind the scenes that he's become more open-minded toward Bitcoin.

516
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:02,940
Yeah.

517
00:43:03,820 --> 00:43:04,140
Okay.

518
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:06,320
Yeah.

519
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,420
That's what Tucker said that too.

520
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:10,140
Are you talking about Tucker or Richard?

521
00:43:10,980 --> 00:43:11,360
Richard.

522
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,040
I think both of them said it, yeah.

523
00:43:14,020 --> 00:43:16,020
Well, Tucker doesn't know much,

524
00:43:16,100 --> 00:43:19,900
but if Warner himself said it,

525
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:21,500
that he's backed off,

526
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:22,760
then I guess that's a little bit better.

527
00:43:22,820 --> 00:43:26,440
But yeah, I mean, I didn't watch it in full.

528
00:43:26,540 --> 00:43:27,180
I saw some clips,

529
00:43:27,380 --> 00:43:31,080
and generally a lot of things I would probably agree with.

530
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:38,520
Yeah, I think it was the most thorough

531
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:44,840
and thorough and approachable understanding

532
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,960
of money creation happens via credit creation.

533
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:52,180
And then what really piqued my interest,

534
00:43:52,300 --> 00:43:55,920
I think his solutions, I think he's missing Bitcoin,

535
00:43:56,940 --> 00:43:58,760
they sort of hand-waved about gold.

536
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,620
But I think when it comes to how money is actually created

537
00:44:01,620 --> 00:44:03,020
in the system via credit creation,

538
00:44:03,020 --> 00:44:12,400
it was really the clarifying in many regards like walking to the mechanics of of it particularly

539
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:22,080
going back to japan in the yeah in the 90s so let me let me pivot off of that with another chart

540
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:27,040
okay this one is what i was this is a part and parcel of presentations i was giving

541
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:32,100
throughout europe this summer goes back to the idea i think we talked about it before about

542
00:44:32,100 --> 00:44:36,360
super exponential growth. And Werner talked about it as well. It's basically at the end of the day,

543
00:44:36,460 --> 00:44:40,780
most people understand that we can't go back to at least the system we're on right now.

544
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:49,900
You can't peg anything. You can't fix it. You can't not grow with the amount of fiat and

545
00:44:49,900 --> 00:44:56,160
obligations that we have out there. You actually need to grow faster and faster. And some of that,

546
00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:01,580
I would actually argue, again, I'm not defending the system, but I'm just trying to look at what's

547
00:45:01,580 --> 00:45:04,700
actually happening, as I just showed you with the, you know,

548
00:45:05,060 --> 00:45:08,240
those broad money supplies keep growing and growing. And I think

549
00:45:08,240 --> 00:45:20,280
will continue to grow because that all that they know how to do at the base is continue to print But if you look at this Jeffrey West very interesting you know theoretical physicist who wrote this book Scale and I drew a lot upon his work in my presentations

550
00:45:20,940 --> 00:45:26,240
He makes the observation that it's not even only, you know, inflation. In fact, he doesn't really

551
00:45:26,240 --> 00:45:30,920
talk about inflation much at all. It's just the way that we grow, the way that we do things

552
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:35,780
socioeconomically, we're moving faster and faster, you know, what would have taken thousands of years

553
00:45:35,780 --> 00:45:40,400
to evolve in the Stone Age or the Bronze Age can take 30 years now.

554
00:45:41,100 --> 00:45:43,360
And the idea is we're going faster and faster.

555
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,440
And his question, which he leaves open,

556
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:48,620
is this idea of a mathematical singularity

557
00:45:48,620 --> 00:45:51,240
where you increase the growth rate every time,

558
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:53,880
but you get to a mathematical singularity.

559
00:45:53,980 --> 00:45:55,100
So if I show you the S&P here,

560
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,220
which is a derived S&P back to the 1800s

561
00:45:58,220 --> 00:46:00,060
because the S&P started in 1955,

562
00:46:00,060 --> 00:46:06,580
But you can run a trend from 1800 to the start of the Federal Reserve.

563
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,900
And the stock market grows like 2% a year.

564
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:10,260
Okay.

565
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:11,200
It's very rough.

566
00:46:11,420 --> 00:46:14,080
It's probably even lower than that because there's like survivorship bias.

567
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,320
There's a ton of railroad companies that went bankrupt.

568
00:46:17,580 --> 00:46:19,020
I'm sure they're not included in this index.

569
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:26,000
But anyway, from the start of the Federal Reserve until 1971,

570
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:34,960
we went through a Great Depression in the US and we grew the markets faster at 4.8% per year

571
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:44,240
CAGR. Okay. So the trend line is the slope of the value of the market. 1971 until 2008,

572
00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:51,120
we went even faster. Trend line growth of 9.6% per year. And then 2008 caught us right in the

573
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:55,200
middle of the crisis, a new monetary epoch clearly. So that's where I delineated a new trend.

574
00:46:55,200 --> 00:47:02,100
2008 trend actually was below like like like a truck sliding down a muddy hill right we were

575
00:47:02,100 --> 00:47:08,100
way below our base but we grew faster all right so if i put this trend line up now the red trend

576
00:47:08,100 --> 00:47:15,060
line you can see from the 9.6 percent kegger before 2008 for the markets we now grow at 11.5

577
00:47:15,060 --> 00:47:20,360
all of these are before dividends reinvesting reinvested it would be probably two percent more

578
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:24,520
on your kegger if not so these are all targets to shoot for right for your returns

579
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:33,140
the trend line for the stock market since uh since 2008 is nine point sorry 11.5 percent per year

580
00:47:33,140 --> 00:47:38,220
so you could see this idea of the faster and fastest faster and faster treadmills

581
00:47:38,220 --> 00:47:44,440
is is clearly happening and i think will continue to happen and probably at shorter time intervals

582
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:51,200
uh still i mean if you just do the caveman eye test on this number one it looks like

583
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,700
you have that sliding truck

584
00:47:53,700 --> 00:47:55,760
with every new trend line that you've

585
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,500
put on this chart going back to

586
00:47:57,500 --> 00:47:59,160
1914 it was below

587
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:00,780
the 1800 trend

588
00:48:00,780 --> 00:48:03,640
go to 71 it was below the

589
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,420
1914 trend 2008

590
00:48:05,420 --> 00:48:05,840
and

591
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,320
yeah this is pretty

592
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:11,620
illuminating in that sense and you

593
00:48:11,620 --> 00:48:13,000
can feel it too not only

594
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,140
it is weird

595
00:48:15,140 --> 00:48:17,020
I think we talked about this

596
00:48:17,020 --> 00:48:19,240
the last episode when you brought up

597
00:48:19,240 --> 00:48:20,900
scale and

598
00:48:20,900 --> 00:48:27,600
in these concepts, but you can definitely feel it socially in your life with inflation,

599
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:35,640
with prices, um, certainly becoming more palpable, not palpable, but, um, very tangible.

600
00:48:36,700 --> 00:48:43,500
Right. He, uh, he focuses on like the growth though, as far as, um,

601
00:48:44,980 --> 00:48:49,680
you know, actually good things like inventions, patents, um, patents kind of weird, right?

602
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:55,440
for us in the libertarian world to focus on patents, but inventions, discoveries, and,

603
00:48:55,440 --> 00:49:01,360
you know, increases in GDP, things like that, which again, we would say a lot of that gets

604
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:08,480
papered over. But I think it's fair enough to say that there's some of both, right? There is,

605
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:14,560
it is undeniable that, like, I'm very glad that we live in this time right now than in the Stone

606
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:21,480
age or even 100 years ago. And I think there's a lot of hope there, actually, there's a lot of,

607
00:49:21,980 --> 00:49:27,760
you know, there's always the apocalyptic view, there's always the view that we're really on for,

608
00:49:27,900 --> 00:49:32,800
you know, in for a train wreck. But as long as we can jump to the first of all, this is back to the

609
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:37,060
point of Warner, which I want to do addresses, if he's saying that they always paper over things,

610
00:49:37,060 --> 00:49:40,660
or they have to keep growing faster and faster. It's true. I agree with him. But there's actually

611
00:49:40,660 --> 00:49:47,280
a positive way to look at that. And that's we are increasingly getting better health care stuff

612
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:54,040
in the US. It's always more expensive for lots of reasons. But in a lot of places, health care is

613
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:58,960
improving, people are pulling themselves out of poverty. And there's actually a lot of good things

614
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:04,580
to think about from these trends. Now, they are absolutely countered from the fiat madness of the

615
00:50:04,580 --> 00:50:10,060
money printing. We have to sort of parse through these things. But here's how it relates to Bitcoin.

616
00:50:10,060 --> 00:50:18,760
Okay, so this is kind of the one of the things that I was trying to show is notice, Marty, all of these trend lines, right?

617
00:50:19,260 --> 00:50:20,860
You see that they're straight lines, right?

618
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:25,280
They're increasingly faster growing straight lines on log scale.

619
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:26,080
So they are exponential.

620
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,220
And they are, in fact, what he calls super exponential in his book.

621
00:50:29,340 --> 00:50:33,660
This is, I think, is a very good graphical representation of super exponential trends.

622
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:39,060
But then if we look at Bitcoin, go to the price.

623
00:50:40,060 --> 00:50:47,060
let's go to trend. Here's our old power trend, our friend. We do not have a straight line. We just do

624
00:50:47,060 --> 00:50:51,380
not have a straight line on log scale. And if you actually showed the growth of that black line,

625
00:50:51,900 --> 00:50:57,540
it decreases. All right. So the interesting question will be, and this is again, also what

626
00:50:57,540 --> 00:51:02,880
I kind of left open in my presentation, my different presentations throughout the summer is

627
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:09,220
what will happen when this super exponential growth of TradFi meets this decelerating growth

628
00:51:09,220 --> 00:51:16,320
of Bitcoin. Like, is that the singularity? Is that a new Bitcoin standard? I have no idea.

629
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,740
You know, Jeffrey West, when he wrote his book, he was not thinking about Bitcoin at all.

630
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:25,880
He wrote it in 2017, but it wasn't on his radar. You know, he left it open that hopefully it's a

631
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,800
new invention. Hopefully we can figure it out. Maybe we're just moving to another

632
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:36,720
faster singularity for, you know, the 15, 20 years. But Bitcoin was not on his radar.

633
00:51:36,720 --> 00:51:42,700
So the interesting thing is, if you look at, for example, the stock market's growing at 11.5%

634
00:51:42,700 --> 00:51:47,920
without dividends, if you reinvest it, it's probably closer to 13%, 14%. But that's constant,

635
00:51:48,100 --> 00:51:53,780
exponential, constant growth. Bitcoin, if you look at the returns from the beginning until today,

636
00:51:54,180 --> 00:52:00,020
we're right about 42% per year. All right. So on a curve, you'd actually get way more

637
00:52:00,020 --> 00:52:07,460
in the past, but on a curve, you'd be at thousands of... Sorry. On a curve, you're at a couple hundred

638
00:52:07,460 --> 00:52:14,160
percent if you hold till today. All right. If you have it today, 41%. And then as you move

639
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:20,520
toward the future, we go down. And I could pull this all the way out to 2050. We still only get

640
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:25,500
to 23.5%. This shows you, this is why, again, people need to back up and look at the power

641
00:52:25,500 --> 00:52:31,500
curve. These are monstrous returns, even with all the inflation and the craziness in the stock

642
00:52:31,500 --> 00:52:39,600
markets today. We're still at 41% CAGR, 42% CAGR for Bitcoin right now. I know you said you have

643
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:46,240
no idea, but you have to have some thoughts on what happens when these two trends collide.

644
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,420
And that's like... Well, I think it's a very, yeah, it's a very interesting graphical

645
00:52:49,420 --> 00:52:54,800
representation. Well, that's what I do. If you zoom all the way out on this, like even though

646
00:52:54,800 --> 00:53:02,220
the power trend still 23 and a half percent CAGR if you go back to the exponential log chart they

647
00:53:02,220 --> 00:53:07,960
just had a like the 2008 line is what 11 and a half percent CAGR so like even though this looks

648
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:14,940
exponential the power trend is still producing a bigger CAGR and so like oh god I gotta turn these

649
00:53:14,940 --> 00:53:23,520
congratulations congratulations thank you but leave that on the final final cut

650
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:30,000
like i guess maybe you have to extend the power trend out even further and is there like a point

651
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:38,040
yeah so this hits this hits uh 10 in 2070 2070 okay and maybe like the singularity when

652
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:42,340
the exponential kagger converges with the power trend

653
00:53:42,340 --> 00:53:47,520
bagger that's the idea i mean uh that's one of the ideas i should say no one

654
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:53,340
i do not know to be honest there's so many things that could happen right uh

655
00:53:53,340 --> 00:54:01,420
obviously there's the world is sort of on fire the eastern authoritarian autocracies are trying

656
00:54:01,420 --> 00:54:06,560
to get more power away from the western democracies we got people in western democracies

657
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:10,980
fighting amongst themselves we're in eastern europe here everybody should know my position now

658
00:54:10,980 --> 00:54:19,980
So there's a lot of stuff that could happen until then. Maybe we do peg into Bitcoin at one of these points and then things could change from there.

659
00:54:19,980 --> 00:54:28,440
there um i don't i wouldn't i wouldn't actually want to

660
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:37,420
if you if you think about like all of the

661
00:54:37,420 --> 00:54:44,340
if you think about all the newsletters i've talked about this a lot right that gold bugs

662
00:54:44,340 --> 00:54:51,380
have written since like the year 1980, especially in the 70s when gold got depegged. This is only

663
00:54:51,380 --> 00:54:56,820
50 years ago, 55 years ago. You would have thought that you would have absolutely, you know, one,

664
00:54:56,820 --> 00:55:02,480
like civilization was moving back to gold. The fact that gold went from 35 bucks an ounce in 1971

665
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:10,480
to 850 bucks for two seconds on the COMEX in January 1980, you would have thought that sound

666
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:16,020
money was returning. The rest of the world was going to catch on. And then lo and behold,

667
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:20,880
they went into a 20-year bear market. And in 1996, Alan Greenspan said the Federal Reserve

668
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:26,460
stands ready to sell gold should the price rise. So I'm not saying that Bitcoin can be co-opted

669
00:55:26,460 --> 00:55:33,740
like that, although that is always some good doom porn on Twitter about any number of topics,

670
00:55:33,740 --> 00:55:42,940
as we know. I think it could be mixed, right? This is another idea that I've been throwing out there

671
00:55:42,940 --> 00:55:49,700
is it's totally possible, by the way, that Bitcoin, if we think about go to the math and back to the

672
00:55:49,700 --> 00:55:54,740
to the ideas of different curves, we have the power curve, which in my opinion, is a more

673
00:55:54,740 --> 00:55:58,820
sustainable growth rate. And we're looking at that now versus a traditional instrument like the dollar.

674
00:55:58,820 --> 00:56:06,140
but let's go the other way let's say that bitcoin turns into growth rates like this

675
00:56:06,140 --> 00:56:12,500
where now i'm not actually showing the growth rates but i'm showing the growth of the um of

676
00:56:12,500 --> 00:56:18,720
the supply right of the supply of the stock market value right it's still straight lines

677
00:56:18,720 --> 00:56:24,600
on log scale and it grows faster and faster and faster if bitcoin would move at some point right

678
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:28,820
If the straight line sort of stops being the scale invariant,

679
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:33,820
generally sloping curve, decreasing rate of growth, right?

680
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:36,180
And somehow it just shoots up and turns into a straight line,

681
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:37,700
like an Expo curve,

682
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,680
and sort of just mirrors the rest of the financial system.

683
00:56:43,060 --> 00:56:45,180
That might be good for Bitcoin holders.

684
00:56:45,180 --> 00:56:46,640
That might be good for value,

685
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,360
but that might not be good for the world.

686
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:49,060
You know what I mean?

687
00:56:49,540 --> 00:56:51,240
Like that's just sort of Bitcoin,

688
00:56:51,240 --> 00:56:57,160
like Bitcoin kind of more matching into what it's trying to.

689
00:56:57,540 --> 00:56:58,840
It's kind of like gold 2.0.

690
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,020
Like it's just, it's there, it's better, it's much better,

691
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:02,400
but it's controlled for whatever reason.

692
00:57:02,460 --> 00:57:06,040
Like there's a lot of fiat units that are paying,

693
00:57:06,140 --> 00:57:08,040
you know, Bitcoin treasury companies,

694
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:10,040
people lines of credit, all the rest.

695
00:57:10,140 --> 00:57:12,240
I mean, it's actually totally possible

696
00:57:12,240 --> 00:57:14,400
that Bitcoin could turn into an Expo curve, by the way.

697
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:15,640
It's not now, but it could happen.

698
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:17,260
On the flip side,

699
00:57:17,260 --> 00:57:26,940
what would happen if the rest of the world the trad fi world and again these are this is not next

700
00:57:26,940 --> 00:57:32,760
month next week next year this is this has to be decades from now but if everybody can start to see

701
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:38,120
the beauty of bitcoin we really stay decentralized we don't have government fiat mandate mandating

702
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:44,440
how everything is going if bitcoin keeps on this idea of this sort of nice beautiful sustainable

703
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:54,440
growth rate in other fiat currency, how would you even charge interest if Bitcoin was rising

704
00:57:54,440 --> 00:58:02,040
in a power curve? That actually is one of the key questions. And I think that you can't.

705
00:58:02,740 --> 00:58:11,020
How do you keep... Why would you even accept a fiat loan, right? Like more and more fiat interest

706
00:58:11,020 --> 00:58:16,760
interest in this asset that you know is scarce you know there's only 2.1 quadrillion sats

707
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,360
why would you even accept

708
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:29,860
uh as a as a uh lender let's say to lend out your satoshis when you know that you're going to go at

709
00:58:29,860 --> 00:58:40,920
this very nice power growth and you know you're going to get paid back in some fiat interest

710
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:44,760
on those Satoshis, you might not get your collateral back.

711
00:58:46,700 --> 00:58:47,700
That's what I see.

712
00:58:47,820 --> 00:58:50,420
Those are the warring sort of two sides.

713
00:58:50,420 --> 00:58:56,320
It's basically either Bitcoin goes exponential,

714
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:58,540
kind of like the TradFi world, right?

715
00:58:59,140 --> 00:59:02,660
Or Bitcoin pulls the rest of the world

716
00:59:02,660 --> 00:59:04,940
into its sort of nice power growth.

717
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:06,420
But if that happens,

718
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,720
you can't really calculate interest on loans.

719
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:15,860
you just uh all this stuff bitcoin treasury companies people taking converts and everything

720
00:59:15,860 --> 00:59:21,080
it won't actually work because loans literally literally interest will only work

721
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:29,500
in exponential fashion compound growth is exponential so you can't do it you can't do it

722
00:59:29,500 --> 00:59:36,680
with this power growth so it's a very sort of uh deep philosophical way out in the future idea but

723
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:38,400
Those are the two extremes as I see it.

724
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:39,480
And I honestly don't know.

725
00:59:39,780 --> 00:59:43,860
I see so many different things that could happen on the spectrum where we go one way or the other.

726
00:59:44,260 --> 00:59:49,640
I would say probably the less optimistic side is if Bitcoin just kind of turns into gold 2.0.

727
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:53,280
It's a great hedge, but the system is what it is.

728
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:57,680
Bitcoin is exponential, just like gold and stocks and bonds and everything else.

729
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:17,680
Well, on the latter of the two extremes, I know SAFE and many others have talked about a potential transition from debt financing to equity financing, where instead of giving a loan to somebody with an attached interest rate, a lot of financing will be equity driven, where...

730
01:00:17,856 --> 01:00:24,176
you give somebody money, you get a portion of the business and you read the benefits of

731
01:00:24,176 --> 01:00:27,696
the commensurate cash flows to come your way from that equity injection.

732
01:00:28,896 --> 01:00:36,976
Yeah. Equity, uh, equity does solve, uh, like just simply to say that you have equity

733
01:00:36,976 --> 01:00:42,496
would solve that idea. Uh, you don't have to worry about it like interest rates or anything.

734
01:00:42,496 --> 01:00:46,236
and maybe that could happen.

735
01:00:47,016 --> 01:00:52,176
But things would have to turn into very short-term.

736
01:00:53,076 --> 01:00:55,896
Like even if you're thinking about working capital or something,

737
01:00:55,976 --> 01:00:59,956
it would have to be very, very short-term fixed rates of interest

738
01:00:59,956 --> 01:01:02,056
and you just can't work very long.

739
01:01:02,596 --> 01:01:04,416
That's my thought about that idea.

740
01:01:05,896 --> 01:01:08,336
Is the world going to be ready for...

741
01:01:09,376 --> 01:01:10,436
That upends everything.

742
01:01:10,436 --> 01:01:25,656
And hey, we're ready, obviously, for Bitcoin to upend everything. But the credit markets are huge. The biggest markets in the world, I mean, bondholders all over the world, they get paid back first before stockholders.

743
01:01:25,656 --> 01:01:29,796
It just upends everything about the financial system.

744
01:01:30,036 --> 01:01:37,716
And so if we go to this sort of everybody's a stockholder, everybody has equity, there's no interest rates or interest rates are very, very short term.

745
01:01:38,576 --> 01:01:39,936
Yeah, it could happen.

746
01:01:40,076 --> 01:01:43,296
And I would say that's probably the better outcome.

747
01:01:43,536 --> 01:01:45,716
That's where Bitcoin stays on the power curve.

748
01:01:45,776 --> 01:01:51,476
It stays on a sustainable lower and lower rate of growth.

749
01:01:51,476 --> 01:01:56,176
But if you're on that curve, you literally, by definition, cannot calculate interest over the long term.

750
01:01:56,336 --> 01:01:59,116
You would explode the system with fiat interest.

751
01:01:59,256 --> 01:02:01,336
There just wouldn't be enough sats to go around.

752
01:02:02,816 --> 01:02:05,076
Yeah, it's fascinating.

753
01:02:05,496 --> 01:02:11,016
It is fascinating to think through these philosophical discussions of what we transition to.

754
01:02:11,076 --> 01:02:11,956
And I've always been partial.

755
01:02:12,196 --> 01:02:14,816
I think we've talked about this, but it's always good to touch on.

756
01:02:14,816 --> 01:02:27,756
Like, I think when you talk about transitioning and what it looks like, I think we're beginning to see that manifest in the form of Bitcoin becoming part of collateral packages.

757
01:02:30,196 --> 01:02:33,296
A lot of people look at micro strategy and the converts and all that.

758
01:02:33,296 --> 01:02:51,936
But I think in private markets, particularly what we're seeing with the emergence of products like Debitify, battery finance, the tools, the infrastructure is getting built out to begin seriously injecting Bitcoin into the credit stack as collateral.

759
01:02:51,936 --> 01:03:09,656
I think you can squint and look at that and see that as a first step towards equity financing, particularly if the lender and the borrower are sharing in the upside of the Bitcoin appreciation over the duration of the loan.

760
01:03:09,656 --> 01:03:34,396
Yeah, it depends on the nature of the contract. As a borrower, I think it's an absolutely great deal. Obviously, Saylor himself, you know, doing a lot with that idea, sort of borrowing with Bitcoin as collateral or borrowing to buy more Bitcoin and then have that as collateral.

761
01:03:34,396 --> 01:03:44,256
it still is though you know the the trad fi model right uh i mean have you seen

762
01:03:44,256 --> 01:03:49,896
these collateral deals where you know i've seen some i think in the u.s they've done it where

763
01:03:49,896 --> 01:03:57,836
a lender will have the developer of say real estate uh take a loan but also a portion of that

764
01:03:57,836 --> 01:04:03,116
loan should buy bitcoin i think that's very interesting uh so you have sort of a dual

765
01:04:03,116 --> 01:04:06,496
hedge, dual collateral hedge against the loan.

766
01:04:08,936 --> 01:04:13,496
All of that stuff, at least as far as I can see, is still modeled on the TradFi world.

767
01:04:13,796 --> 01:04:14,936
It's modeled with rates of interest.

768
01:04:16,496 --> 01:04:21,856
And since Bitcoin has such explosive growth, like as you see here, and your holding time,

769
01:04:23,176 --> 01:04:24,576
we're roughly on a curve.

770
01:04:24,756 --> 01:04:27,336
We're increasing the power trend at $100 a day.

771
01:04:27,696 --> 01:04:31,256
So as a CAGR, that translates into 42% per year.

772
01:04:33,116 --> 01:04:38,496
we're looking pretty solid, right? We're looking pretty, pretty, we have a lot of buffer,

773
01:04:39,196 --> 01:04:44,716
even enough to take care of the drawdowns or the bear markets, if they come again,

774
01:04:44,776 --> 01:04:47,436
which we talked about already at the top of the show, I think they probably will.

775
01:04:48,556 --> 01:04:55,196
There's still a lot of buffer before we get down to your, you know, your senior collateralized debt

776
01:04:55,196 --> 01:04:59,896
of like major companies, or major real estate companies where your people are trying to get,

777
01:04:59,896 --> 01:05:08,816
5% or 7% now, maybe with a lot of crazy treasury markets. But obviously, treasuries themselves,

778
01:05:08,996 --> 01:05:13,196
I mean, you want to be even below 5% depending on your duration of the curve. But

779
01:05:13,196 --> 01:05:19,856
there's a lot of delta there. There's a lot of room to play around. When Bitcoin is doing 41%,

780
01:05:20,696 --> 01:05:24,876
TradFi roughly, let's just say it's 5%, maybe leaking a little bit higher.

781
01:05:24,876 --> 01:05:27,556
and as we talked about with the S&P 500,

782
01:05:27,736 --> 01:05:29,076
it's probably looking a lot higher

783
01:05:29,076 --> 01:05:30,356
as far as stock returns go.

784
01:05:32,016 --> 01:05:33,356
I think they're going to careen.

785
01:05:33,476 --> 01:05:35,256
I do think that they're going to hit each other.

786
01:05:35,696 --> 01:05:40,716
And before they hit each other,

787
01:05:40,796 --> 01:05:41,796
we're probably enough people

788
01:05:41,796 --> 01:05:42,856
will see the writing on the wall

789
01:05:42,856 --> 01:05:43,676
or understand Bitcoin

790
01:05:43,676 --> 01:05:46,996
that it's just, it's the place to be.

791
01:05:47,816 --> 01:05:48,956
But what I'm very curious,

792
01:05:49,076 --> 01:05:50,196
and I think what you'll start to,

793
01:05:50,436 --> 01:05:51,736
what will start to take shape,

794
01:05:51,796 --> 01:05:52,796
let me try to put some more substance

795
01:05:52,796 --> 01:05:53,836
on what I'm saying for the listener,

796
01:05:53,836 --> 01:06:00,156
is in the next 20 years, if we're pretty locked down in developed markets,

797
01:06:00,156 --> 01:06:05,096
if you can't withdraw Bitcoin, if there's just KYC up the wazoo,

798
01:06:05,356 --> 01:06:10,176
like you can't do anything in the real world,

799
01:06:10,176 --> 01:06:17,576
if nobody cares about key management or even node management,

800
01:06:17,856 --> 01:06:23,676
then that looks to me like a pretty traditional TradFi world.

801
01:06:23,836 --> 01:06:27,996
going back to exponential and that and in that world, interest rates work totally fine.

802
01:06:28,376 --> 01:06:31,076
They work totally fine. They're just you're going to get the boom bust cycle, you're going to get a

803
01:06:31,076 --> 01:06:36,576
lot of government intervention. And that's what it is. I think that's not that exciting. But in

804
01:06:36,576 --> 01:06:42,696
the other world, that's really hard for bondholders. I mean, it's just it doesn't,

805
01:06:43,396 --> 01:06:49,576
the math doesn't really check out. So yeah, again, a long winded answer to your question. But I,

806
01:06:49,576 --> 01:06:58,696
I think there's even those examples like you, I don't know, have you ever seen debt contracts or Bitcoin denominated contracts that are like fully equity?

807
01:06:58,936 --> 01:07:03,636
And that's kind of like a, is there a marketplace for that where it's like fully equity only Bitcoin?

808
01:07:03,876 --> 01:07:05,176
Probably not, I think.

809
01:07:05,716 --> 01:07:05,956
No.

810
01:07:06,216 --> 01:07:06,916
Pretty young, immature.

811
01:07:07,516 --> 01:07:12,056
I think the converts are like the closest thing because they convert to equity, right?

812
01:07:12,456 --> 01:07:12,636
Right.

813
01:07:12,796 --> 01:07:13,296
So we've seen.

814
01:07:13,516 --> 01:07:14,636
That's going to have a duration.

815
01:07:15,036 --> 01:07:15,236
Yeah.

816
01:07:15,236 --> 01:07:16,376
That's probably pretty short.

817
01:07:17,056 --> 01:07:18,896
Sailor rotated out of that market, right?

818
01:07:18,896 --> 01:07:21,356
and he got more into preferreds, which have no duration.

819
01:07:23,956 --> 01:07:28,256
So he's kicked the can down the road on that idea.

820
01:07:30,356 --> 01:07:34,896
Yeah, I'm looking at Cormant, the miner in West Texas.

821
01:07:35,136 --> 01:07:36,096
Shout out to Jamie McCavity.

822
01:07:37,376 --> 01:07:42,196
They did an interesting Series B equity funding, $29 million.

823
01:07:42,476 --> 01:07:46,096
I believe they did use both equity and debt financing,

824
01:07:46,096 --> 01:07:48,456
including unique Bitcoin-denominated loans.

825
01:07:48,456 --> 01:07:51,076
that was debt to fund its expansion, low-cost Bitcoin miner.

826
01:07:51,736 --> 01:07:57,016
From what I understand, those instruments perform very well.

827
01:07:58,616 --> 01:08:03,476
I think, yeah, I think all this is to say that we're still in the very early innings

828
01:08:03,476 --> 01:08:09,316
of people getting creative and really beginning to explore

829
01:08:09,316 --> 01:08:13,676
and innovate with Bitcoin-based financial contracts.

830
01:08:16,176 --> 01:08:17,136
Agreed, yeah.

831
01:08:17,136 --> 01:08:23,936
it totally i would say i would prefer the equity based but i think about it a lot i think about

832
01:08:23,936 --> 01:08:28,336
the different things that would have to happen for that to occur and a lot of that is self-sovereign

833
01:08:28,336 --> 01:08:38,096
stuff you know people standing up to you know some of the draconian uh financial regulation

834
01:08:38,096 --> 01:08:44,316
that we've seen grow and grow and grow since the 1970s so yeah i think it could go either way

835
01:08:44,316 --> 01:08:46,296
Honestly, I think it could go either way.

836
01:08:46,436 --> 01:08:54,776
And I think Bitcoin would do well in either scenario, but different people will be hurt in either scenario.

837
01:08:55,436 --> 01:08:55,536
Yeah.

838
01:08:56,056 --> 01:08:57,876
Well, let's let's paint the picture for people.

839
01:08:59,996 --> 01:09:09,916
What does an ideal landscape and capital stack and tech stack on a Bitcoin standard look like in your mind?

840
01:09:09,916 --> 01:09:16,296
I mean, you experienced it earlier this summer in Riga, particularly.

841
01:09:16,516 --> 01:09:21,596
What I think is very underappreciated and not really talked about enough

842
01:09:21,596 --> 01:09:24,876
is the maturation of the Lightning Network,

843
01:09:25,036 --> 01:09:29,916
particularly as this connective tissue between disparate second-layer technologies,

844
01:09:30,616 --> 01:09:35,296
whether that's liquid e-cash mints.

845
01:09:35,296 --> 01:09:43,836
in the case of Riga, they were using ARK in the background for all the merchants. And

846
01:09:43,836 --> 01:09:49,196
this is something that I'm very passionate about. And I can actually see it materializing

847
01:09:49,196 --> 01:09:58,716
in front of our eyes is this sort of emergence of a new tech stack for a banking system with all

848
01:09:58,716 --> 01:10:01,516
these different second layer technologies.

849
01:10:01,976 --> 01:10:07,776
And so I think if we want it to be true and if we want it to manifest and materialize,

850
01:10:08,636 --> 01:10:14,696
then the tools are there to make it happen, make this cypherpunk Bitcoin standard banking

851
01:10:14,696 --> 01:10:15,636
stack possible.

852
01:10:18,256 --> 01:10:19,016
I agree.

853
01:10:19,336 --> 01:10:22,316
And I think that we're going to go in that direction.

854
01:10:22,496 --> 01:10:23,736
I think that is very good.

855
01:10:23,736 --> 01:10:30,496
And I absolutely support everybody that's doing that.

856
01:10:30,616 --> 01:10:33,596
I think obviously the Noster ecosystem is helping a lot there.

857
01:10:36,656 --> 01:10:37,456
It's amazing.

858
01:10:37,656 --> 01:10:38,376
It really is amazing.

859
01:10:38,756 --> 01:10:40,336
I'm all for it.

860
01:10:41,236 --> 01:10:42,116
I'm all for it.

861
01:10:43,456 --> 01:10:49,636
Are you Larry White, Hal Finney?

862
01:10:51,036 --> 01:10:53,556
We're going to have a free banking system built on top of Bitcoin.

863
01:10:53,736 --> 01:10:55,276
I've been partial towards that.

864
01:10:56,176 --> 01:10:56,436
Yeah.

865
01:10:56,716 --> 01:11:02,436
Well, the risk of the free banking system is that it can be unfree, right?

866
01:11:02,876 --> 01:11:07,636
And that's the interesting thing that I think Bitcoin's trying to break.

867
01:11:08,016 --> 01:11:08,796
And so...

868
01:11:08,796 --> 01:11:09,436
What do you mean by unfree?

869
01:11:09,496 --> 01:11:10,356
Just over-regulated?

870
01:11:10,896 --> 01:11:14,016
Yeah, it becomes monopolized and captured and over-regulated.

871
01:11:14,116 --> 01:11:15,796
And then we don't have a free banking system anymore.

872
01:11:15,796 --> 01:11:20,056
We have a centrally planned central bank system, which central banks have no idea.

873
01:11:20,056 --> 01:11:25,776
Like in Washington, D.C., they have no idea what the bank reserve ratio should actually be in Wyoming or something.

874
01:11:26,116 --> 01:11:27,996
It's just it's completely gone.

875
01:11:28,236 --> 01:11:38,256
We had that in the 18th and 19th centuries in a few different markets, actually in a lot of markets, but big in northern Europe and in Canada as well.

876
01:11:39,176 --> 01:11:40,276
And then we lost it.

877
01:11:40,756 --> 01:11:43,376
So I think people got to look at all sides.

878
01:11:43,376 --> 01:11:49,996
I think anyway, the good thing I know we're going to be too heavy on this, like people are going to do Bitcoin.

879
01:11:50,056 --> 01:11:54,636
you're going to hold Bitcoin, you're going to do what you need to do on Noster or, you know,

880
01:11:54,636 --> 01:12:02,156
all the different relays and L2, L3 options that are coming, which are awesome. Absolutely amazing.

881
01:12:03,236 --> 01:12:08,536
I'm just wondering about, you brought up, you know, the free banking system. The problem is

882
01:12:08,536 --> 01:12:14,216
when you get to that sort of centralized, too big of a centralized hub, right? And we can already

883
01:12:14,216 --> 01:12:29,416
see I mean look it already happened Like let I know people don like this company but let say Binance This was totally you know shitcoin company They were an ICO company but it absolutely one of the most successful ICOs ever right

884
01:12:29,796 --> 01:12:30,376
And what happened?

885
01:12:30,736 --> 01:12:32,616
They didn't stay free.

886
01:12:32,616 --> 01:12:35,056
They didn't stay, you know, the mission,

887
01:12:35,256 --> 01:12:40,336
obviously no Bitcoin is really going to sort of like agree generally what

888
01:12:40,336 --> 01:12:44,616
they're doing, but they're, they were a untethered,

889
01:12:44,616 --> 01:12:47,236
unregulated zero fiat company.

890
01:12:47,236 --> 01:12:52,756
same with BitMEX, same with BitMEX. These guys were free banking, untethered, using Bitcoin

891
01:12:52,756 --> 01:13:00,976
primarily, but also in Chitcoins, I guess more in Binance case. They were a decentralized free

892
01:13:00,976 --> 01:13:11,656
system and they both got captured. So that to me is the interesting question really about what will

893
01:13:11,656 --> 01:13:19,536
or could happen with a Bitcoin, like a true Bitcoin free system, because those those examples,

894
01:13:19,536 --> 01:13:26,556
I agree, they're more sort of free banking like they're more, you know, but any system,

895
01:13:26,796 --> 01:13:28,576
if you're going to get big enough, you're going to have enough money.

896
01:13:28,776 --> 01:13:31,096
People are your footprint is starting to get around.

897
01:13:31,796 --> 01:13:34,296
They're going to want to get you and they're going to want to tax you.

898
01:13:35,116 --> 01:13:40,136
Yeah, well, and I think this is where implementation details really come into play.

899
01:13:40,136 --> 01:13:43,996
and obviously BitMEX, Binance.

900
01:13:44,236 --> 01:13:47,016
BitMEX, I think, most beautifully,

901
01:13:47,396 --> 01:13:49,956
and I don't think they get enough credit

902
01:13:49,956 --> 01:13:55,936
for really building a primitive Bitcoin bank

903
01:13:55,936 --> 01:13:57,896
with the way they implemented multisig

904
01:13:57,896 --> 01:13:59,596
and did all their payouts

905
01:13:59,596 --> 01:14:03,076
and geographically distributed.

906
01:14:03,676 --> 01:14:06,056
But in the case of BitMEX and Binance,

907
01:14:06,056 --> 01:14:08,056
like you needed...

908
01:14:08,056 --> 01:14:10,316
I'm just trying to figure out how I want to describe it.

909
01:14:10,316 --> 01:14:13,036
You need those core teams who really understood the space

910
01:14:13,036 --> 01:14:15,696
and were able to spin up a business,

911
01:14:16,576 --> 01:14:20,716
like a legal business entity with processes and all this.

912
01:14:21,196 --> 01:14:25,796
And they had their siloed sort of way of operating

913
01:14:25,796 --> 01:14:27,016
and building their businesses,

914
01:14:27,016 --> 01:14:32,116
where I think I've been really on this tip

915
01:14:32,116 --> 01:14:34,696
that I think the reemergence of eCacheMint,

916
01:14:34,696 --> 01:14:38,476
really the two protocols, Fetty Mint and Cashew,

917
01:14:38,716 --> 01:14:40,376
the fact that you have these protocols

918
01:14:40,376 --> 01:14:42,436
that are open source, permissionless,

919
01:14:43,396 --> 01:14:45,536
and you sort of had these out-of-the-box,

920
01:14:45,956 --> 01:14:48,196
this out-of-the-box banking infrastructure

921
01:14:48,196 --> 01:14:49,996
that doesn't necessarily,

922
01:14:50,316 --> 01:14:52,016
you have a team of open source developers

923
01:14:52,016 --> 01:14:52,996
building out these protocols,

924
01:14:53,256 --> 01:14:56,856
and anybody can leverage the product of the work

925
01:14:56,856 --> 01:14:58,156
of that open source team,

926
01:14:58,276 --> 01:14:59,836
whereas in the case of BitMEX and Binance,

927
01:14:59,956 --> 01:15:02,716
you're really dependent on those closed source teams

928
01:15:02,716 --> 01:15:03,996
to build out that infrastructure.

929
01:15:03,996 --> 01:15:15,816
And I think you can squint and see an implementation of a rapidly growing competitive and hydro-like free banking system with these cash humans.

930
01:15:16,596 --> 01:15:25,096
And if you go back to CHOM in the 80s and what the holdup was there is that it failed in the 80s because you need permission from the banks to actually do anything.

931
01:15:25,096 --> 01:15:29,636
Whereas with these e-cash protocols, you don't need any permission.

932
01:15:29,776 --> 01:15:37,496
You just get a GitHub and figure out how to peg in and peg out Bitcoin and issue e-cash tokens.

933
01:15:38,076 --> 01:15:39,616
And boom, you have a bank.

934
01:15:40,036 --> 01:15:40,776
That is my dream.

935
01:15:40,916 --> 01:15:41,636
Maybe it's naive.

936
01:15:41,816 --> 01:15:42,776
Maybe it's too optimistic.

937
01:15:43,176 --> 01:15:44,096
But I think implementation...

938
01:15:44,096 --> 01:15:45,716
No, 100% me as well.

939
01:15:46,256 --> 01:15:49,676
To use the old parallel word, right?

940
01:15:49,736 --> 01:15:50,476
It's fiduciary media.

941
01:15:50,476 --> 01:15:57,196
it's a it's a you're setting up something that's related but different to the underlying base which

942
01:15:57,196 --> 01:16:04,836
in the old days was of course gold or silver at times uh there are so many better things about the

943
01:16:04,836 --> 01:16:10,916
both the systems that you just mentioned fetty and cashew than any other prior system but even there

944
01:16:10,916 --> 01:16:18,516
right the um the different coordinators or i can't even forget the language of fetty uh but you know

945
01:16:18,516 --> 01:16:22,156
say you're a farmer, like say you have a big farming operation in Africa.

946
01:16:22,356 --> 01:16:23,216
Yeah, the guardians, right?

947
01:16:23,616 --> 01:16:27,656
My understanding is there still is a possibility that guardians could

948
01:16:27,656 --> 01:16:32,336
in some way, shape or form.

949
01:16:32,676 --> 01:16:32,956
Rug you.

950
01:16:33,996 --> 01:16:34,376
You're right.

951
01:16:34,476 --> 01:16:35,756
I mean, for lack of a better word.

952
01:16:36,136 --> 01:16:39,396
And that's totally fine, but I'm not totally fine,

953
01:16:39,436 --> 01:16:41,996
but that's natural the way that the system needs to scale.

954
01:16:41,996 --> 01:16:45,796
I'm absolutely not poo-pooing any of this.

955
01:16:45,796 --> 01:16:50,216
This is like, this is like, like you said, this is basically my, you know, one of my dreams as well.

956
01:16:50,256 --> 01:16:53,676
That's why I like reading about free banking history because it's something that existed.

957
01:16:53,676 --> 01:16:54,296
It worked.

958
01:16:54,356 --> 01:16:54,996
It was there.

959
01:16:55,056 --> 01:16:55,776
Then it failed.

960
01:16:56,336 --> 01:16:57,736
So we have to do better than that.

961
01:16:58,456 --> 01:16:59,576
And I think we're on the way.

962
01:16:59,576 --> 01:17:03,556
I think it's amazing what those guys are doing.

963
01:17:04,716 --> 01:17:06,056
And I think it's totally possible.

964
01:17:06,336 --> 01:17:06,996
I do.

965
01:17:08,596 --> 01:17:14,456
The rub will be, though, probably two main things, right?

966
01:17:14,456 --> 01:17:19,256
it to be, of course, the co-opting it at some point, like you said, if, you know, however that

967
01:17:19,256 --> 01:17:23,076
form might occur, it could be different in different places and different geographical

968
01:17:23,076 --> 01:17:29,436
factors and socioeconomic factors. It might be, you know, some, some guardians turn out to be

969
01:17:29,436 --> 01:17:33,076
mafia-like. Some guardians might turn out to be co-opted by the state. I have no idea. I'm just

970
01:17:33,076 --> 01:17:38,496
saying, I know these guys think about that stuff too, all the time. We got plenty of time. So

971
01:17:38,496 --> 01:17:42,116
that's, that's probably the main risk that people think about. But then the other risk, which goes

972
01:17:42,116 --> 01:17:51,416
back to the power law stuff and the, um, you know, the exponential stuff is you can start to make

973
01:17:51,416 --> 01:17:57,596
money off of these systems. If you can be like, well, you know, let's just, let's keep the Bitcoin

974
01:17:57,596 --> 01:18:03,756
here. You're just going to start using our, uh, fiduciary media, our sort of certificates. Yeah.

975
01:18:03,756 --> 01:18:11,076
This, this, uh, this, uh, this Chami and Mint is backed one-to-one, but this one isn't because

976
01:18:11,076 --> 01:18:15,236
the state is involved and then this other state is involved here here here and you can just imagine

977
01:18:15,236 --> 01:18:22,576
that there is if the economic growth is big enough anywhere it doesn't really matter what we're

978
01:18:22,576 --> 01:18:27,596
talking about if the economic big growth is big enough there will there will be that

979
01:18:27,596 --> 01:18:35,396
sort of perennial tendency of the of wherever you are operating to come after you and you know fill

980
01:18:35,396 --> 01:18:45,016
their coffers with tax revenue. So it's just going to be interesting. It's going to be interesting

981
01:18:45,016 --> 01:18:51,396
to see how that works. I mean, on the one hand, we could maybe set up the true dream of the old,

982
01:18:51,396 --> 01:18:57,336
the anarcho-capitalist paradise where everything starts to have a fee and a price and a service

983
01:18:57,336 --> 01:19:05,116
can be delivered from infrastructure, water, Bitcoin mining, right, can give heating. There's

984
01:19:05,116 --> 01:19:09,576
all sorts of amazing things that can happen. I'm sure you've done some shows with some of those

985
01:19:09,576 --> 01:19:16,216
miners, um, talking about that, like grid list was doing that and stuff, but the, uh,

986
01:19:16,456 --> 01:19:26,056
the question will be, is if we can overcome the state, the state, uh, monopoly there when they

987
01:19:26,056 --> 01:19:33,936
want to come in and start doing it their way, very mafia, like as Rothbard said, there's only the

988
01:19:33,936 --> 01:19:37,596
the mafia and the state are the two groups that can just sort of come and

989
01:19:37,596 --> 01:19:42,276
demand demand revenue from you without necessarily providing a service.

990
01:19:42,956 --> 01:19:46,096
It's fun to dive into these like deep philosophical where we'll go.

991
01:19:47,436 --> 01:19:50,756
And I think it's not only fun, but it's important, I think,

992
01:19:50,796 --> 01:19:52,336
to anchor, to put something down,

993
01:19:52,416 --> 01:19:55,356
like here's a vision to strive for to at least test out.

994
01:19:57,236 --> 01:20:02,696
And I think it's also important to recognize where we are still in the very

995
01:20:02,696 --> 01:20:10,696
nation stages of Bitcoin overall, and even more so these second layer technologies and

996
01:20:10,696 --> 01:20:16,716
these financial contracts and his way of doing things. But I think it's also important to

997
01:20:16,716 --> 01:20:23,076
recognize that the stuff is getting built out, like really tying this back to the overall tenor

998
01:20:23,076 --> 01:20:28,176
of the beginning of the episode, which was people are somewhat disappointed with where Bitcoin is

999
01:20:28,176 --> 01:20:29,096
from a price perspective.

1000
01:20:31,276 --> 01:20:34,096
There's another contingent of people who are disappointed

1001
01:20:34,096 --> 01:20:36,756
because Bitcoin doesn't seem to be maturing at all

1002
01:20:36,756 --> 01:20:40,016
at different levels, different parts of the stack.

1003
01:20:40,156 --> 01:20:43,536
But I think that's inarguably untrue.

1004
01:20:43,536 --> 01:20:45,556
We are actually paying attention.

1005
01:20:45,936 --> 01:20:48,676
All this stuff is getting built and getting more mature

1006
01:20:48,676 --> 01:20:51,696
and getting used more every day.

1007
01:20:51,776 --> 01:20:54,376
Yesterday, we have somebody helping us out

1008
01:20:54,376 --> 01:20:56,716
with the YouTube thumbnails, the clickbait

1009
01:20:56,716 --> 01:20:58,856
to make sure that we're getting as many views as possible.

1010
01:20:59,456 --> 01:21:02,716
And he sent me an invoice via BlinkWallet,

1011
01:21:03,196 --> 01:21:04,576
which I was not expecting at all.

1012
01:21:04,676 --> 01:21:06,396
This is some dude I think we found on YouTube.

1013
01:21:07,396 --> 01:21:11,196
And he asked to get paid in Bitcoin using BlinkWallet,

1014
01:21:11,236 --> 01:21:12,076
using the Lightning Network.

1015
01:21:12,956 --> 01:21:19,136
And that was a shocking signal to me,

1016
01:21:19,256 --> 01:21:20,416
like, oh, people are waking up.

1017
01:21:20,416 --> 01:21:22,396
This network adoption is happening.

1018
01:21:23,816 --> 01:21:23,916
Yep.

1019
01:21:24,796 --> 01:21:25,636
There you go, man.

1020
01:21:25,636 --> 01:21:26,896
It's a great thing.

1021
01:21:27,336 --> 01:21:28,256
I'm super bullish.

1022
01:21:28,496 --> 01:21:29,316
I mean, we talk about all these.

1023
01:21:30,736 --> 01:21:33,536
Don't get me wrong if listeners are doubting.

1024
01:21:33,616 --> 01:21:45,276
I'm absolutely very, very confident that at least one of these paths to sort of stay free in Bitcoin will work.

1025
01:21:45,496 --> 01:21:47,716
And obviously, it's not limited to just one.

1026
01:21:47,816 --> 01:21:49,776
I mean, there are just so many different ways to do it.

1027
01:21:49,776 --> 01:21:54,356
I think it's

1028
01:21:54,356 --> 01:21:56,236
for sure green pastures

1029
01:21:56,236 --> 01:21:58,216
but yeah it is the

1030
01:21:58,216 --> 01:21:59,976
sort of the

1031
01:21:59,976 --> 01:22:02,336
current

1032
01:22:02,336 --> 01:22:03,456
fiat world that we're in

1033
01:22:03,456 --> 01:22:06,476
can be quite unforgiving

1034
01:22:06,476 --> 01:22:07,856
unforgiving

1035
01:22:07,856 --> 01:22:09,976
very depressed

1036
01:22:09,976 --> 01:22:11,536
yeah

1037
01:22:11,536 --> 01:22:13,776
I think people are waking up though

1038
01:22:13,776 --> 01:22:14,756
I think

1039
01:22:14,756 --> 01:22:18,196
people are getting fed up

1040
01:22:18,196 --> 01:22:20,956
You got to have that optimism.

1041
01:22:20,956 --> 01:22:22,036
We're going to break free.

1042
01:22:22,036 --> 01:22:23,036
Absolutely.

1043
01:22:23,036 --> 01:22:27,116
It's inevitable that they will get fed up and look for other options.

1044
01:22:27,116 --> 01:22:29,956
And you know, Bitcoin is going to be there.

1045
01:22:29,956 --> 01:22:31,956
Gold failed there, right?

1046
01:22:31,956 --> 01:22:33,316
Like I said, you were the gold bug.

1047
01:22:33,316 --> 01:22:36,676
If you were the gold bug in our, we were at some gold conference in 1981.

1048
01:22:37,596 --> 01:22:38,436
You're like, this is it.

1049
01:22:39,316 --> 01:22:40,916
This is on game on.

1050
01:22:40,916 --> 01:22:45,596
And then 20 year bear and Alan Greenspan in the nineties is telling you that he's

1051
01:22:45,596 --> 01:22:47,036
got the gold market captured.

1052
01:22:48,196 --> 01:22:50,416
Bitcoin is not doing that.

1053
01:22:50,636 --> 01:22:57,096
I mean, it could happen, but actually capturing it,

1054
01:22:58,236 --> 01:23:01,696
actually stopping every single person from running a node

1055
01:23:01,696 --> 01:23:04,956
and being able to censor every transaction

1056
01:23:04,956 --> 01:23:07,056
and being able to control the market price,

1057
01:23:07,516 --> 01:23:09,156
we're a long, long way from that.

1058
01:23:09,156 --> 01:23:17,476
So I have no doubt that we're going to give it a good run here with Bitcoin.

1059
01:23:17,776 --> 01:23:18,696
It's the best chance we have.

1060
01:23:19,196 --> 01:23:19,716
It really is.

1061
01:23:20,656 --> 01:23:22,056
But speaking of gold bugs and gold,

1062
01:23:22,256 --> 01:23:23,376
gold's having a moment right now.

1063
01:23:24,296 --> 01:23:25,076
It's having a moment.

1064
01:23:25,076 --> 01:23:25,396
It is.

1065
01:23:26,356 --> 01:23:27,196
It is.

1066
01:23:27,356 --> 01:23:27,876
I saw your tweet.

1067
01:23:28,156 --> 01:23:31,436
I saw your tweet about the gold,

1068
01:23:31,676 --> 01:23:33,956
you know, getting to the highest reserves ever

1069
01:23:33,956 --> 01:23:34,916
and more than treasuries.

1070
01:23:38,516 --> 01:23:39,996
I'm pulling it up right now.

1071
01:23:40,356 --> 01:23:42,476
We are still up at 35 or at 35.

1072
01:23:43,716 --> 01:23:44,436
6-3.

1073
01:23:45,616 --> 01:23:47,356
Corn's even pumping a little bit, up 100.

1074
01:23:47,476 --> 01:23:50,476
11k. The model that I just pulled in

1075
01:23:50,476 --> 01:23:52,576
earlier at the start of this episode, I think was 109.

1076
01:23:54,416 --> 01:23:54,856
So

1077
01:23:54,856 --> 01:23:58,476
we just pumped like

1078
01:23:58,476 --> 01:24:00,276
2k during the course of this episode.

1079
01:24:00,416 --> 01:24:02,096
Of course, this chat 2.5k

1080
01:24:02,096 --> 01:24:06,456
hasn't even been posted yet and the universe

1081
01:24:06,456 --> 01:24:07,056
can feel

1082
01:24:07,056 --> 01:24:10,336
a signal coming from it. Smash buying

1083
01:24:10,336 --> 01:24:12,356
Bitcoin. What a letdown if

1084
01:24:12,356 --> 01:24:14,156
it's 105 when this thing is released.

1085
01:24:14,776 --> 01:24:14,816
But

1086
01:24:14,816 --> 01:24:19,156
no, I love it, dude.

1087
01:24:19,436 --> 01:24:20,956
I mean, yeah, gold is pumping.

1088
01:24:21,196 --> 01:24:35,376
I think it makes sense geopolitically that states are doing that It funny though You know the trend I do like trends on this stuff as well also to look at you know comparisons with Bitcoin

1089
01:24:35,376 --> 01:24:42,376
The trend is still generally flat to even slightly down since the 60s

1090
01:24:42,936 --> 01:24:44,436
of central banks holding gold.

1091
01:24:44,516 --> 01:24:46,696
But since 2008, they've been consistently buying.

1092
01:24:46,816 --> 01:24:49,536
And like you said, we're getting now to the point where,

1093
01:24:49,536 --> 01:24:56,756
in dollar terms, gold is, you know, your gold reserves are more than your treasury reserves.

1094
01:24:56,756 --> 01:25:02,656
That's, uh, that's, that's big news. Yeah. And I'm just going to pull this up here. I'll

1095
01:25:02,656 --> 01:25:07,636
share a screen for the first time ever during one of these episodes, but just to

1096
01:25:07,636 --> 01:25:11,676
put a visual on this for, um,

1097
01:25:12,356 --> 01:25:19,356
everybody watching on YouTube or wherever, here's the chart we're talking about. Foreign central

1098
01:25:19,356 --> 01:25:28,176
banks hold more gold in treasuries for the first time since the early 90s yeah that's a good chart

1099
01:25:28,176 --> 01:25:36,756
i gotta get that i gotta get that data online yeah i mean and even though exogenous factors

1100
01:25:36,756 --> 01:25:42,396
only factor for five percent of of bitcoin price movement right in your opinion it is

1101
01:25:42,396 --> 01:25:45,316
fascinating to observe

1102
01:25:45,316 --> 01:25:48,016
what is going on.

1103
01:25:48,056 --> 01:25:48,976
If only because

1104
01:25:48,976 --> 01:25:51,776
just take Bitcoin out of the question,

1105
01:25:51,996 --> 01:25:53,756
it is very obvious that we are

1106
01:25:53,756 --> 01:25:56,136
in some sort of phase change

1107
01:25:56,136 --> 01:25:57,976
in terms of

1108
01:25:57,976 --> 01:25:59,996
the global monetary system

1109
01:25:59,996 --> 01:26:01,536
as is evidenced by

1110
01:26:01,536 --> 01:26:03,736
people falling back to gold

1111
01:26:03,736 --> 01:26:05,396
in favor

1112
01:26:05,396 --> 01:26:08,076
or in disfavor of treasuries.

1113
01:26:09,216 --> 01:26:09,316
Yep.

1114
01:26:09,316 --> 01:26:18,716
you see there it's 75 that's an 850 gold price for like i said two seconds on the comex in 1980

1115
01:26:18,716 --> 01:26:27,536
uh that's a huge valuation there of gold and um you know can we go back to that

1116
01:26:27,536 --> 01:26:34,356
i don't know but i absolutely think the bitcoin will be a part of that now moving forward um

1117
01:26:34,356 --> 01:26:39,216
but also i'm not you know i think there's a lot of conflicting messages

1118
01:26:39,216 --> 01:26:42,336
between bitcoiners as well you know you have a lot of bitcoiners that

1119
01:26:42,336 --> 01:26:46,696
are even uh i don't know

1120
01:26:46,696 --> 01:26:54,736
you have a lot of bitcoiners who are saying that it's a good thing that big you know governments

1121
01:26:54,736 --> 01:26:59,976
are starting to reserve bitcoin you have a lot of bitcoiners that think that that's a bad thing

1122
01:26:59,976 --> 01:27:05,636
right the government's reserve bitcoin what's your what's your take on that if bitcoin starts

1123
01:27:05,636 --> 01:27:16,016
to become starts to become a mix in that basket i have a very uh mvk view on this which is bitcoin

1124
01:27:16,016 --> 01:27:23,036
is money for enemies and there's nothing you can do um you just have to if you're worried about the

1125
01:27:23,036 --> 01:27:29,536
government potentially co-opting or wall street co-opting blackrock co-opting whoever the only

1126
01:27:29,536 --> 01:27:30,916
way to prevent that is to

1127
01:27:30,916 --> 01:27:33,556
hold your own private keys, run your own node

1128
01:27:33,556 --> 01:27:34,776
and make sure that

1129
01:27:34,776 --> 01:27:36,836
hash rate's sufficiently distributed.

1130
01:27:39,016 --> 01:27:39,496
What if

1131
01:27:39,496 --> 01:27:41,596
they say no withdrawals from Americans?

1132
01:27:42,236 --> 01:27:43,456
Like no Americans can

1133
01:27:43,456 --> 01:27:43,976
hold gold.

1134
01:27:44,696 --> 01:27:47,056
That's when you take to the streets

1135
01:27:47,056 --> 01:27:48,176
and you say no.

1136
01:27:49,096 --> 01:27:49,536
That's why

1137
01:27:49,536 --> 01:27:52,076
don't wait for it.

1138
01:27:52,756 --> 01:27:55,476
It is certainly a possibility as you just mentioned

1139
01:27:55,476 --> 01:27:57,196
it has happened before in US history

1140
01:27:57,196 --> 01:27:59,516
with Executive Order 6102

1141
01:27:59,516 --> 01:28:05,636
and to best prepare for that is to make sure that you get your Bitcoin off the exchanges

1142
01:28:05,636 --> 01:28:10,756
and into your own wallets that you secure.

1143
01:28:11,576 --> 01:28:18,616
And I think luckily we're still in this period where a majority of Bitcoin is held in individual wallets

1144
01:28:18,616 --> 01:28:21,196
with private keys secured by individuals.

1145
01:28:21,496 --> 01:28:29,456
The trend is going in the wrong direction, but that is a product of the institutions coming in and buying via the ETF.

1146
01:28:29,516 --> 01:28:32,196
and paper Bitcoin summer with the treasury companies.

1147
01:28:34,436 --> 01:28:38,696
I do think everybody should be proactive.

1148
01:28:39,536 --> 01:28:43,776
And if you want to protect yourself

1149
01:28:43,776 --> 01:28:48,016
from the withdrawal button being turned off

1150
01:28:48,016 --> 01:28:49,816
by the US government at exchanges,

1151
01:28:50,216 --> 01:28:51,876
just don't wait for that to happen.

1152
01:28:52,976 --> 01:28:56,516
Be active, get it into your own wallet,

1153
01:28:57,016 --> 01:28:58,016
secure your own private keys.

1154
01:28:59,276 --> 01:28:59,376
Yeah.

1155
01:28:59,516 --> 01:29:20,156
And if the government does do that, like I think, I think it would be hard for me to believe that people, Bitcoiners specifically, particularly the early adopters would just roll over and allow that to happen without some pushback.

1156
01:29:21,056 --> 01:29:21,456
Right.

1157
01:29:22,336 --> 01:29:28,576
I was on a panel with Pitch Todd in Helsinki and he said similar things.

1158
01:29:28,576 --> 01:29:30,156
I mean, on some level, it is going to get political.

1159
01:29:31,856 --> 01:29:34,036
You know, you will have to push back.

1160
01:29:37,656 --> 01:29:43,096
He gave the example of the, you know, if code is for speech, right?

1161
01:29:43,276 --> 01:29:48,776
The cypherpunks had to do the government in the 90s and actually won.

1162
01:29:51,056 --> 01:29:58,256
Although that analogy is still very hinged on a U.S. centric world, which we're moving away from now.

1163
01:29:58,576 --> 01:30:03,916
frankly. So in any event, I think it's still better. Bitcoin is, I still think,

1164
01:30:03,956 --> 01:30:08,176
going to do well in this world, right? In a more multipolar world, even though these,

1165
01:30:09,076 --> 01:30:13,336
you know, Russia, of course, has no gold because they're stupid and they lost it all. But China does

1166
01:30:13,336 --> 01:30:21,876
have a lot and they continue to buy. And so gold will be a part of it. And if you think Bitcoin

1167
01:30:21,876 --> 01:30:23,776
will be a part of it.

1168
01:30:23,836 --> 01:30:29,216
But, you know, yeah, I hope it like the other side of whatever comes here.

1169
01:30:29,256 --> 01:30:33,256
I hope it's not, you know, too bloody, too violent.

1170
01:30:34,176 --> 01:30:38,536
But like you said, I think people are going to have to push back.

1171
01:30:38,536 --> 01:30:43,936
If your basic rights and private property rights,

1172
01:30:44,176 --> 01:30:46,616
free speech rights start to get taken away, you will have to push back.

1173
01:30:47,256 --> 01:30:47,396
Yeah.

1174
01:30:47,396 --> 01:30:53,556
and I can think of a number of founders that run exchanges in my mind that if

1175
01:30:53,556 --> 01:30:55,136
the government were to signal like, Hey,

1176
01:30:55,196 --> 01:30:56,776
we're going to turn off the withdrawal button.

1177
01:30:58,216 --> 01:31:02,316
Like I like to think the romantic in me likes to think that there are

1178
01:31:02,316 --> 01:31:10,016
principal Bitcoiners and positions and many exchanges that would sort of force

1179
01:31:10,016 --> 01:31:12,176
their users to withdraw saying like, Hey,

1180
01:31:12,956 --> 01:31:15,136
you need to figure out how to download blue wallet.

1181
01:31:15,136 --> 01:31:17,616
we're going to send her your Bitcoin because we don't want to

1182
01:31:17,616 --> 01:31:22,836
we don't want to be holding this.

1183
01:31:23,696 --> 01:31:25,236
Do you think that there are principled

1184
01:31:25,236 --> 01:31:28,356
owners of Bitcoin treasury companies?

1185
01:31:30,476 --> 01:31:30,916
God.

1186
01:31:32,636 --> 01:31:34,196
I think a lot of...

1187
01:31:34,196 --> 01:31:36,956
Sorry, I just had to lob that one out there for you.

1188
01:31:38,576 --> 01:31:40,296
Well, you want to hear my theory.

1189
01:31:41,016 --> 01:31:43,376
What are your thoughts on the U.S. government

1190
01:31:43,376 --> 01:31:45,036
taking a 10% stake in Intel?

1191
01:31:45,136 --> 01:31:50,336
hold on i want to hear your theory first well this is the setup for the theory what are your

1192
01:31:50,336 --> 01:31:57,076
thoughts on the u.s government taking 10 staking intel i'm not gonna i'm not gonna throw too much

1193
01:31:57,076 --> 01:32:03,636
judgment out there first of all uh you don't get too much back into the geopolitics of this episode

1194
01:32:03,636 --> 01:32:14,576
but um yeah if you want to envision yourself as a citizen fully sovereign

1195
01:32:14,576 --> 01:32:22,796
way in the future, or your grandchildren or your heirs way in the future. I think that's sort of

1196
01:32:22,796 --> 01:32:29,476
easier to envision. But if we talk about even just 100 years ago, the consolidation of power

1197
01:32:29,476 --> 01:32:36,716
between monarchies and a few governments around Europe, we're completely consolidated and completely

1198
01:32:36,716 --> 01:32:41,276
hopeless as far as the proletariat. I think we're somewhere in the middle of that today.

1199
01:32:41,276 --> 01:32:46,596
OK, so what I'm saying to answer your question is I don't think I think it's a gray issue.

1200
01:32:46,656 --> 01:32:47,576
I don't think it's black and white.

1201
01:32:47,936 --> 01:32:56,076
If someone wants to, you know, if we talk about pure capitalism in a free market, I think that's one thing.

1202
01:32:56,456 --> 01:33:02,056
But if you're talking about an entity like the government buying 10 percent of Intel.

1203
01:33:02,256 --> 01:33:09,576
OK, but what about if the Chinese government came in and tried to buy 10 percent of Intel or the Indian government tried to come in and buy 10 percent of Intel?

1204
01:33:09,576 --> 01:33:11,196
You don't think the U.S. government would stop that?

1205
01:33:11,276 --> 01:33:30,816
So there are pros and cons there. I understand the idea of the US government trying to do this for a defensive as a defensive play. And those those though that position is not without merit.

1206
01:33:30,816 --> 01:33:36,256
on the other side as a free market person obviously yes i'm not a fan of seeing the

1207
01:33:36,256 --> 01:33:43,076
government come in and you know take bigger and bigger stakes and companies so it's mixed

1208
01:33:43,076 --> 01:33:48,836
i can see they're being married to it but also like intel why are you buying intel

1209
01:33:48,836 --> 01:33:57,016
it has been good since andy grove died and you're basically buying a loser in hopes that

1210
01:33:57,016 --> 01:33:58,936
injection of

1211
01:33:58,936 --> 01:34:00,356
or it's not even

1212
01:34:00,356 --> 01:34:01,456
they didn't even check there

1213
01:34:01,456 --> 01:34:02,496
it's the CHIPS Act

1214
01:34:02,496 --> 01:34:03,996
they're basically converting

1215
01:34:03,996 --> 01:34:06,496
subsidies from that act

1216
01:34:06,496 --> 01:34:07,496
into equity

1217
01:34:07,496 --> 01:34:10,196
it's like they're getting

1218
01:34:10,196 --> 01:34:10,916
the money anyway

1219
01:34:10,916 --> 01:34:13,356
the US is getting

1220
01:34:13,356 --> 01:34:15,016
the US government

1221
01:34:15,016 --> 01:34:15,496
is getting

1222
01:34:15,496 --> 01:34:16,776
and taxpayers by extension

1223
01:34:16,776 --> 01:34:18,496
theoretically are getting

1224
01:34:18,496 --> 01:34:19,276
a return

1225
01:34:19,276 --> 01:34:21,296
based off of that equity injection

1226
01:34:21,296 --> 01:34:21,616
but

1227
01:34:21,616 --> 01:34:23,356
no no the point I bring up

1228
01:34:23,356 --> 01:34:23,876
is

1229
01:34:23,876 --> 01:34:26,216
if you didn't want a 6102

1230
01:34:26,216 --> 01:34:44,676
So if you were the U.S. government, if you understood the game theory of Bitcoin adoption and particularly tipping your cards to your adversaries in terms of what you're doing on the Bitcoin adoption side.

1231
01:34:44,676 --> 01:35:05,496
And one great way to build a Bitcoin stack is to have somebody in the private sector acquire 3% of all Bitcoin and then come in one day and just print money, acquire that company and their balance sheet and make their shareholders whole via printed money.

1232
01:35:07,916 --> 01:35:11,796
That's a great way to build a Bitcoin reserve.

1233
01:35:12,656 --> 01:35:13,256
Sure.

1234
01:35:13,956 --> 01:35:14,516
Sure.

1235
01:35:14,676 --> 01:35:20,476
and uh are you referring to anybody in particular by chance yeah microstrategy you know large

1236
01:35:20,476 --> 01:35:28,556
bitcoin holder yeah perhaps yeah 600 000 plus coins yeah no man i mean the theories are out

1237
01:35:28,556 --> 01:35:33,616
there for sure i mean the headquarters is a tyson corner i believe it's right next to every defense

1238
01:35:33,616 --> 01:35:41,356
contractor in the united states no i mean um look you and i are pretty skeptical on a lot of that

1239
01:35:41,356 --> 01:35:47,116
stuff so i'm with you there uh no no actually like honestly like it's just a theory it's fun to

1240
01:35:47,116 --> 01:35:53,216
to talk about and to surmise but honestly if you're thinking like the most

1241
01:35:53,216 --> 01:36:03,176
um sort of painless way to do a 6d 102 like event just like you have like a strategy acquire

1242
01:36:03,176 --> 01:36:08,216
all the bitcoin once it gets to a certain level the government's like okay this is a good

1243
01:36:08,216 --> 01:36:10,856
strategic reserve for us.

1244
01:36:11,396 --> 01:36:12,176
You print the money,

1245
01:36:12,296 --> 01:36:13,736
you make shareholders hold,

1246
01:36:14,256 --> 01:36:15,356
maybe even at a premium.

1247
01:36:15,696 --> 01:36:16,716
Everybody gets paid back.

1248
01:36:16,936 --> 01:36:17,936
The government gets their Bitcoin.

1249
01:36:18,276 --> 01:36:20,656
And I'm not saying this is happening,

1250
01:36:20,896 --> 01:36:22,096
but it is funny.

1251
01:36:22,096 --> 01:36:25,136
Yeah, so I share your skepticism.

1252
01:36:25,396 --> 01:36:26,736
Most of our listeners

1253
01:36:26,736 --> 01:36:41,296
who listened to me and you chat for all these years hopefully know that I share your skepticism But i also have this other layer of skepticism towards other governments and the united states actually i don think it the worst i still think it the best looking horse in the glue factor as i usually

1254
01:36:41,296 --> 01:36:48,296
say the dollar and even the government in some cases not in not in others but um you know a very

1255
01:36:48,296 --> 01:36:56,776
simple example all the uh nice hard right uh anti-woke podcasters or some of them let's say

1256
01:36:56,776 --> 01:37:03,656
were contracted by Russia earlier this year via a company called Tenant Media,

1257
01:37:04,336 --> 01:37:08,936
and were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars an episode to create content.

1258
01:37:09,396 --> 01:37:14,296
You know, the likes of Tim Pool, Dave Rubin, these guys.

1259
01:37:15,936 --> 01:37:22,696
It's not only walled to like, the U.S. government is not playing just with itself.

1260
01:37:23,056 --> 01:37:25,716
There are a lot of other players happening.

1261
01:37:25,716 --> 01:37:29,636
So that's what I meant with my intel answer of trying to say it a little bit of both ways.

1262
01:37:29,916 --> 01:37:30,856
It's a defensive move.

1263
01:37:30,876 --> 01:37:32,316
It might be a dumb move.

1264
01:37:32,416 --> 01:37:34,156
Like you said, it could be a totally dumb move.

1265
01:37:34,296 --> 01:37:36,136
But I don't actually know.

1266
01:37:36,236 --> 01:37:42,176
Again, in the world where our grandchildren and their grandchildren are living in a purely anarchic capitalist paradise,

1267
01:37:42,176 --> 01:37:50,016
running a node and maybe mining a little bit of Bitcoin on nuclear fusion or something versus the world of 100 years ago,

1268
01:37:50,876 --> 01:37:54,296
we are, unfortunately, I think, and I would use this word, unfortunately,

1269
01:37:54,296 --> 01:37:59,036
we're still in a world where there are big big powers that play with a lot of money and a lot of

1270
01:37:59,036 --> 01:38:02,796
guns and there are wars going on right now so it's very difficult you got to watch out for that

1271
01:38:02,796 --> 01:38:10,396
and i also think and this is where i kind of land more on the side of like i think the way that

1272
01:38:10,396 --> 01:38:14,196
peter todd looks at some of this geopolitical stuff he's a big ukraine supporter by the way

1273
01:38:14,196 --> 01:38:21,896
um is there they're just our adversaries they're their government government adversaries there are

1274
01:38:21,896 --> 01:38:27,516
government intelligence agency adversaries. There are good companies and bad companies in

1275
01:38:27,516 --> 01:38:31,936
different jurisdictions. It's just not the US government alone by itself.

1276
01:38:33,896 --> 01:38:37,656
Anybody can argue about the strategy the US government takes on a lot of things,

1277
01:38:37,656 --> 01:38:44,556
I would certainly argue in many ways. But that little example of the right wing podcasters being

1278
01:38:44,556 --> 01:38:51,356
paid by the Kremlin, which I have been, again, yelling for years as RT was ascending in the 2010s

1279
01:38:51,356 --> 01:38:57,456
on youtube that's just that's one example to think about you know we just thought there's a summit in

1280
01:38:57,456 --> 01:39:04,236
china right right now where all the all the dictators are meeting including modi even though

1281
01:39:04,236 --> 01:39:09,136
people like to say that modi's a like india's still a democracy because trump had put all the

1282
01:39:09,136 --> 01:39:13,636
tariffs on them right and now he's meeting with xi and putin and kim jong-un is even coming in

1283
01:39:13,636 --> 01:39:20,876
is he by train yeah he's coming in by train and they cancel all the trains uh in china like

1284
01:39:20,876 --> 01:39:23,756
lovely communist move right there.

1285
01:39:23,856 --> 01:39:26,256
Like, I don't know how many hundreds of millions of Chinese

1286
01:39:26,256 --> 01:39:28,816
just got shut off of a train when he's coming in.

1287
01:39:28,976 --> 01:39:31,456
But I mean, he's coming in by train.

1288
01:39:31,576 --> 01:39:33,116
And this is a very rare event, by the way.

1289
01:39:33,536 --> 01:39:35,236
You know, Kim Jong-un would come,

1290
01:39:35,396 --> 01:39:36,796
like he might meet with Trump in Singapore,

1291
01:39:36,796 --> 01:39:38,976
or he might meet one-on-one with Xi.

1292
01:39:39,536 --> 01:39:43,436
But this is a major dictator event that's occurring right now.

1293
01:39:43,436 --> 01:39:47,196
You know, Erdogan's there from Turkey and then Modi.

1294
01:39:47,436 --> 01:39:49,396
I mean, we'd say India's democracy,

1295
01:39:49,396 --> 01:39:51,636
but they're a fledgling democracy at the moment.

1296
01:39:51,876 --> 01:39:57,656
Modi himself has got plenty of autocratic history, let's say.

1297
01:39:57,916 --> 01:39:59,336
I feel like he's been in for quite a while.

1298
01:40:00,056 --> 01:40:00,696
He has indeed.

1299
01:40:01,236 --> 01:40:03,536
That's really all you need to do is look at the track record,

1300
01:40:03,616 --> 01:40:04,896
like Putin for 25 years.

1301
01:40:05,636 --> 01:40:07,556
Lukashenko was there, of course, from Belarus,

1302
01:40:08,436 --> 01:40:09,656
very close to the Baltics here.

1303
01:40:09,736 --> 01:40:11,976
He's been in for 31 years.

1304
01:40:13,416 --> 01:40:16,336
I mean, it's a wild world, man.

1305
01:40:16,556 --> 01:40:17,316
It's a wild world.

1306
01:40:17,316 --> 01:40:19,676
So anyway, there's that stuff as well going on.

1307
01:40:19,736 --> 01:40:25,996
That's my long winded answer to your point there about the government getting involved in U.S. businesses.

1308
01:40:26,356 --> 01:40:26,476
Yeah.

1309
01:40:27,256 --> 01:40:29,096
Why can't we all just get along, man?

1310
01:40:31,736 --> 01:40:32,916
Vipers everywhere, man.

1311
01:40:33,096 --> 01:40:33,876
Vipers everywhere.

1312
01:40:34,476 --> 01:40:37,776
I'm just trying to run around the block with my son and not have to worry about that.

1313
01:40:38,076 --> 01:40:38,576
And do that.

1314
01:40:38,656 --> 01:40:40,596
Hey, let's go back to the top of the show message.

1315
01:40:40,696 --> 01:40:41,756
We're getting close to the end, right?

1316
01:40:44,756 --> 01:40:45,956
Enjoy the power curve.

1317
01:40:45,956 --> 01:40:48,356
it's 95% of what Bitcoin is doing

1318
01:40:48,356 --> 01:40:50,416
the adoption you can see it

1319
01:40:50,416 --> 01:40:51,656
you can visualize it

1320
01:40:51,656 --> 01:40:54,716
let me finish off with one more

1321
01:40:54,716 --> 01:40:55,736
chart here just so people

1322
01:40:55,736 --> 01:40:58,336
those brave souls that have stuck through our

1323
01:40:58,336 --> 01:41:00,596
you have one of the highest

1324
01:41:00,596 --> 01:41:02,336
retention particularly

1325
01:41:02,336 --> 01:41:04,596
my rants because I know a lot of people

1326
01:41:04,596 --> 01:41:06,356
don't like my Ukraine stance but

1327
01:41:06,356 --> 01:41:07,916
let me show you

1328
01:41:07,916 --> 01:41:09,736
let me show you

1329
01:41:09,736 --> 01:41:11,956
the

1330
01:41:11,956 --> 01:41:14,976
Bitcoin

1331
01:41:14,976 --> 01:41:17,556
as we close it out here.

1332
01:41:18,036 --> 01:41:19,836
I think this is my new headline chart

1333
01:41:19,836 --> 01:41:21,336
as far as showing the whole thing.

1334
01:41:21,936 --> 01:41:23,096
It got the power curve.

1335
01:41:23,156 --> 01:41:23,776
We got the power curve.

1336
01:41:23,816 --> 01:41:24,636
We got exponential curve.

1337
01:41:24,696 --> 01:41:25,156
We got money.

1338
01:41:25,236 --> 01:41:25,676
We got Bitcoin.

1339
01:41:25,816 --> 01:41:27,556
So this is now what I'm calling

1340
01:41:27,556 --> 01:41:28,536
TradFi based money.

1341
01:41:29,096 --> 01:41:31,276
It is available gold and silver.

1342
01:41:31,456 --> 01:41:32,616
So it doesn't include industrial.

1343
01:41:33,736 --> 01:41:36,176
And then since gold and silver

1344
01:41:36,176 --> 01:41:37,216
is actually a little bit

1345
01:41:37,216 --> 01:41:38,136
a part of the monetary base,

1346
01:41:38,196 --> 01:41:39,116
there's like $4 trillion now

1347
01:41:39,116 --> 01:41:40,016
because it's a huge value

1348
01:41:40,016 --> 01:41:43,276
in backing the fiat based money,

1349
01:41:43,336 --> 01:41:43,916
which is liability.

1350
01:41:43,916 --> 01:41:45,136
You take that off.

1351
01:41:45,216 --> 01:41:49,336
So you just look at unbacked fiat money.

1352
01:41:49,596 --> 01:41:50,616
That's what this is.

1353
01:41:50,716 --> 01:41:50,836
Okay.

1354
01:41:50,856 --> 01:41:54,776
At the moment, that total right now is $38 trillion.

1355
01:41:56,256 --> 01:41:56,936
All right.

1356
01:41:57,116 --> 01:41:57,856
$38 trillion.

1357
01:41:59,056 --> 01:42:09,776
And the Bitcoin network, all right, is right there.

1358
01:42:10,916 --> 01:42:11,096
Okay.

1359
01:42:13,916 --> 01:42:23,516
Bitcoin dominance, 5.6%. All right. 2.1 trillion. This moves from actual values right into the

1360
01:42:23,516 --> 01:42:28,496
trend lines, right? So you can see them. But this is actually graphically what I mean when I say

1361
01:42:28,496 --> 01:42:33,316
95% of Bitcoin's action right now is just the power curve itself. Like we literally,

1362
01:42:33,456 --> 01:42:39,336
this is kind of the real Bitcoin dominance. If fiat-based money altogether is 40 trillion,

1363
01:42:39,336 --> 01:42:43,856
gold, silver, fiat-based money, central bank money, Bitcoin's $2 trillion. We're at 5%.

1364
01:42:44,416 --> 01:42:53,796
All right. Question would be, when do we cross? That would be here. Go out to 2041 or so.

1365
01:42:55,796 --> 01:42:57,736
Actually, it's changed a little bit here, but

1366
01:42:57,736 --> 01:43:05,096
2041, roughly 120 trillion.

1367
01:43:07,716 --> 01:43:10,056
And there's an idea for you.

1368
01:43:10,396 --> 01:43:11,356
15 years from now,

1369
01:43:12,356 --> 01:43:17,976
something to shoot for.

1370
01:43:18,136 --> 01:43:20,116
It's around this mythical 100 trillion.

1371
01:43:20,516 --> 01:43:20,736
All right.

1372
01:43:21,296 --> 01:43:23,276
And I think that we're going to get close there,

1373
01:43:23,896 --> 01:43:25,336
probably sooner.

1374
01:43:25,336 --> 01:43:31,756
and again when we do meet it's still 50 50 so that's money that's valued in something like a

1375
01:43:31,756 --> 01:43:36,836
dollar that has nothing to do with bitcoin okay because it's unbacked fiat based money would be

1376
01:43:36,836 --> 01:43:45,676
something like 100 trillion 120 trillion uh bitcoin itself if it got to 120 trillion there

1377
01:43:45,676 --> 01:43:50,156
would still be 50 50 so that's what i keep saying these money supplies keep growing skate to where

1378
01:43:50,156 --> 01:43:57,896
the puck is going uh yeah i think 15 17 years is probably where we will match and this is this is

1379
01:43:57,896 --> 01:44:06,676
how you can see basically um you know trad fi which runs in a exponential straight line on log scale

1380
01:44:06,676 --> 01:44:15,416
right versus bitcoin which runs in a power trend on log scale which is a this sort of nice gently

1381
01:44:15,416 --> 01:44:18,176
sustainable curve.

1382
01:44:19,736 --> 01:44:21,556
So that's what I think.

1383
01:44:21,796 --> 01:44:22,896
I'll keep tracking this.

1384
01:44:23,796 --> 01:44:24,856
Keep tweaking it.

1385
01:44:25,556 --> 01:44:26,976
But that's what I think is going to happen.

1386
01:44:27,256 --> 01:44:28,216
You know what I think is going to happen?

1387
01:44:28,936 --> 01:44:29,336
Tell me.

1388
01:44:29,876 --> 01:44:31,236
Bring it to year 2041.

1389
01:44:32,036 --> 01:44:35,476
And people are going to be digging through the archives of the episodes that we've been

1390
01:44:35,476 --> 01:44:36,916
producing for seven years.

1391
01:44:36,996 --> 01:44:38,056
This guy was a genius.

1392
01:44:38,756 --> 01:44:41,036
He told us how exactly how it was going to happen.

1393
01:44:42,136 --> 01:44:42,576
Yes.

1394
01:44:42,736 --> 01:44:43,556
Looking forward to that.

1395
01:44:43,556 --> 01:44:49,976
no uh it's tweaked around a lot like these numbers are super sensitive and um the trend

1396
01:44:49,976 --> 01:44:54,756
line is sensitive like you know i could tweak a couple things and this could go up to like 140

1397
01:44:54,756 --> 01:44:59,896
trillion so i just want to make that caveat this can be i'm tweaking this all the time based on

1398
01:44:59,896 --> 01:45:05,996
the changes in the numbers and the uh the updates of the trend line itself when i do these quarterly

1399
01:45:05,996 --> 01:45:15,876
reports. So it's, you know, big, big, big ticket numbers, a long time period out might be like May,

1400
01:45:16,236 --> 01:45:19,756
something like that. That was it was showing that before when I before I did this quarterly update,

1401
01:45:19,756 --> 01:45:25,736
it was already up to like 140 145 trillion. Now it's down to 120. We'll see. We'll see based on

1402
01:45:25,736 --> 01:45:30,236
all the price action and everything that happens. But who knows, it might be that mythical 100

1403
01:45:30,236 --> 01:45:34,236
trillion is exactly where Bitcoin passes the fiat world.

1404
01:45:34,336 --> 01:45:37,276
But this is how I see it, sort of a headline idea.

1405
01:45:38,456 --> 01:45:38,536
Yeah.

1406
01:45:41,076 --> 01:45:41,836
I like it.

1407
01:45:41,876 --> 01:45:42,316
Very exciting.

1408
01:45:42,576 --> 01:45:43,116
Very exciting.

1409
01:45:43,536 --> 01:45:46,296
So all reasons to be bullish, all reasons to hodl.

1410
01:45:47,796 --> 01:45:52,276
Never financial advice, but if you want to play around with the extremes of those percentiles

1411
01:45:52,276 --> 01:45:55,916
and ape in and out, check my streams mostly every day.

1412
01:45:55,916 --> 01:46:00,236
Check the streams, check out porkopolis.io.

1413
01:46:00,676 --> 01:46:02,436
There's a porkopolis economics, let me see.

1414
01:46:02,656 --> 01:46:03,236
Yep, yep, yep.

1415
01:46:03,336 --> 01:46:04,336
Porkopolis.io.

1416
01:46:04,656 --> 01:46:05,116
We'll link to all this.

1417
01:46:05,116 --> 01:46:06,076
BaseMoney.World.

1418
01:46:06,376 --> 01:46:09,216
You can get a lot of different places.

1419
01:46:09,476 --> 01:46:12,976
It was funny because I was setting up to write the newsletter last night.

1420
01:46:13,056 --> 01:46:16,356
I wrote the newsletter that I wrote last night because I was beginning to question myself.

1421
01:46:16,496 --> 01:46:19,516
I guess Bitcoin, is it not doing what it should be doing?

1422
01:46:19,696 --> 01:46:21,276
Are we having a depressed cycle?

1423
01:46:22,276 --> 01:46:24,296
And then I just went back to basics.

1424
01:46:24,296 --> 01:46:25,336
I went to look at the chart.

1425
01:46:25,436 --> 01:46:25,856
I said, no.

1426
01:46:25,916 --> 01:46:26,816
It's right on trend.

1427
01:46:27,516 --> 01:46:27,996
We're,

1428
01:46:28,196 --> 01:46:29,036
we're fine.

1429
01:46:29,116 --> 01:46:31,596
People are the noise for anybody listening.

1430
01:46:31,596 --> 01:46:35,296
I think the lesson to take from this conversation,

1431
01:46:35,536 --> 01:46:42,616
really every conversation that Matthew and I have every quarter is this is the

1432
01:46:42,616 --> 01:46:43,856
best way to filter out the noise.

1433
01:46:44,216 --> 01:46:45,336
This is the signal.

1434
01:46:45,936 --> 01:46:51,536
If you're ever feel your emotions being manipulated by people on Twitter or

1435
01:46:51,536 --> 01:46:53,296
gold bugs or whoever it may be,

1436
01:46:53,516 --> 01:46:54,856
just fall back to basics.

1437
01:46:54,976 --> 01:46:55,256
Look at,

1438
01:46:55,256 --> 01:46:57,356
look at the data. This is where the signal is.

1439
01:46:57,496 --> 01:46:59,516
There's a lot of noise out there. It's only going to get louder

1440
01:46:59,516 --> 01:47:01,456
and there's going to be

1441
01:47:01,456 --> 01:47:02,116
more of it.

1442
01:47:03,436 --> 01:47:04,676
Twitter is not real life.

1443
01:47:05,136 --> 01:47:05,716
It really isn't.

1444
01:47:07,396 --> 01:47:09,316
Running around the block with your kids

1445
01:47:09,316 --> 01:47:11,196
is real life. I love it, man.

1446
01:47:11,296 --> 01:47:13,376
I'm very happy for you. Good luck with the

1447
01:47:13,376 --> 01:47:15,396
newest

1448
01:47:15,396 --> 01:47:17,096
getting some sleep and

1449
01:47:17,096 --> 01:47:19,436
all the rest, but

1450
01:47:19,436 --> 01:47:20,596
I'm very happy for you, buddy.

1451
01:47:21,236 --> 01:47:23,176
Thank you, sir. Go run around the block.

1452
01:47:23,596 --> 01:47:25,916
Actually, you said tonight, so you got a while.

1453
01:47:26,056 --> 01:47:26,536
Yeah, we got a while.

1454
01:47:26,556 --> 01:47:27,956
I could run around the block with my little one.

1455
01:47:28,116 --> 01:47:28,676
Maybe we'll do that.

1456
01:47:28,896 --> 01:47:29,116
Yeah.

1457
01:47:32,016 --> 01:47:34,256
We're going to be doing this until 2041, so.

1458
01:47:35,016 --> 01:47:36,156
I think we will, dude.

1459
01:47:36,396 --> 01:47:37,396
I think we will.

1460
01:47:39,896 --> 01:47:46,076
I just hope Central and Eastern Europe are preserved and safe until then.

1461
01:47:46,636 --> 01:47:47,556
That's what we're working for.

1462
01:47:48,456 --> 01:47:48,636
Yeah.

1463
01:47:49,236 --> 01:47:50,436
I think we're going to be good.

1464
01:47:50,436 --> 01:47:51,536
I think we're going to be good.

1465
01:47:51,536 --> 01:47:51,796
Let's see.

1466
01:47:52,016 --> 01:47:52,496
Let's see.

1467
01:47:52,496 --> 01:47:55,656
And when in doubt, run your own note.

1468
01:47:56,056 --> 01:47:56,196
Yeah.

1469
01:47:56,776 --> 01:47:57,556
Enjoy yourself.

1470
01:47:58,256 --> 01:47:58,576
Marty.

1471
01:47:59,876 --> 01:48:00,976
Always a pleasure, my friend.

1472
01:48:01,236 --> 01:48:01,476
Matty.

1473
01:48:01,716 --> 01:48:02,696
The pleasure is always mine.

1474
01:48:03,096 --> 01:48:03,256
Peace.

1475
01:48:03,316 --> 01:48:03,796
Love freaks.

1476
01:48:04,876 --> 01:48:09,556
If you've made it this far, I want to thank you for listening and ask you for a couple of things.

1477
01:48:09,616 --> 01:48:12,276
Can you subscribe on the platform that you're listening to?

1478
01:48:12,336 --> 01:48:15,836
Maybe give us a rating and a review that helps the show quite a bit.

1479
01:48:15,876 --> 01:48:18,536
Whether you're listening on Spotify, Apple or Fountain.

1480
01:48:18,536 --> 01:48:24,456
speaking of fountain that is my favorite podcasting app if you go over to fountain you can subscribe

1481
01:48:24,456 --> 01:48:29,996
to the show become a paid subscriber to support the show and receive these episodes ad free

1482
01:48:29,996 --> 01:48:36,836
in a day early let's go find fountain or go to fountain.fm become a paid subscriber