1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,920
You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

2
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,040
We talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

3
00:00:13,500 --> 00:00:15,680
All the central banks going nuts.

4
00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:17,880
So it's all acting like safe haven.

5
00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:25,260
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

6
00:00:25,340 --> 00:00:28,480
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

7
00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,360
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

8
00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,240
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

9
00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,540
Vince, welcome back to the show.

10
00:00:38,620 --> 00:00:45,320
We're in the midst of a chaotic time in precious metals markets, Bitcoin markets, markets in general.

11
00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,140
So I thought it was fitting to catch up with you.

12
00:00:48,380 --> 00:00:49,300
Markets apocalypse.

13
00:00:51,020 --> 00:00:51,320
Yeah.

14
00:00:52,620 --> 00:00:55,840
Markets, silver, mageddon, Bitcoin apocalypse.

15
00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:03,300
Oops. Gold. Gold NATO. I don't know. I guess we need to come up with a funny term.

16
00:01:03,300 --> 00:01:05,980
Yeah. So I'm just looking at trading view right now. Yeah.

17
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,380
Gold hit fifty six hundred. What's it show? Thursday afternoon.

18
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,700
Now it's trading at forty six around forty six three eight.

19
00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,760
Went as low as forty four hundred dollars earlier this morning.

20
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:30,000
silver similarly blow off top hit 121 76 trading at 76 was as low as 71 this morning

21
00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:36,220
it quite obviously it's a 50 sell-off i mean that's you know that's that's crazy

22
00:01:36,220 --> 00:01:46,540
this this i could say this as a person who's been in the market since 94 there's never and a student

23
00:01:46,540 --> 00:01:52,420
in the markets, there's never been anything like this, ever, period, ever. And it's happened for

24
00:01:52,420 --> 00:02:03,500
good reason. I mean, in 94, there was when Warren Buffett, when George Soros cornered silver. In 97,

25
00:02:03,620 --> 00:02:10,600
there was Warren Buffett. In 93, there was the BCCI scandal. It was our very, very own Bitcoin

26
00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:20,580
scandal. In 1993, silver was trading like $4. And an investment fund was found to be fraudulent

27
00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:25,480
in the Middle East. And so they had to puke all their silver because they didn't have the money.

28
00:02:25,920 --> 00:02:31,100
It's the opposite of not having the coins. And that made the market drop, you know, like

29
00:02:31,100 --> 00:02:39,220
10%, 20% in one day. There have been all kinds of things, but nothing's like this. And the thing is,

30
00:02:39,220 --> 00:02:44,120
there's so much more going on behind the scenes than we know, but it's not what we're talking

31
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:50,820
about today. What are we talking about? Well, let's start with on stage in front of the audience

32
00:02:50,820 --> 00:02:57,960
and just talking about what's topical, which is the nomination of Kevin Warsh for chairman of the

33
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:03,120
Federal Reserve. Obviously, a lot of people are looking at that nomination and looking at

34
00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:08,760
Kevin Warsh's perspective on markets and particularly Fed policy and identifying him

35
00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:14,520
as more of a hawkish Fed chairman if he gets to the nomination process

36
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,540
and is thrusted to the throne of the Federal Reserve.

37
00:03:19,060 --> 00:03:24,460
Many people are attributing the crash in gold, silver, and Bitcoin markets

38
00:03:24,460 --> 00:03:26,080
to his hawkish nature.

39
00:03:26,900 --> 00:03:31,280
We'll start there, and then we can speculate on what's happening.

40
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:38,180
Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting

41
00:03:38,180 --> 00:03:44,260
because as soon as he went to the forefront, and I did a little research, he came across as

42
00:03:44,260 --> 00:03:53,980
historically a policy hawk when he was with Obama. And then the pushback was, he isn't a hawk, he's

43
00:03:53,980 --> 00:04:00,000
a real politic person. And then, you know, you started seeing some interviews with him

44
00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:05,340
saying that he was very dovish.

45
00:04:06,100 --> 00:04:09,200
And I went, okay, so this guy is basically, he goes with the flow.

46
00:04:10,140 --> 00:04:12,140
And then the markets kept selling off.

47
00:04:12,180 --> 00:04:13,660
And I said, well, don't they get the message?

48
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:22,900
So I guess the market doesn't believe that he's as dovish as they think.

49
00:04:23,020 --> 00:04:27,340
Or maybe it's reacting to the fact that they think the Fed actually does have to hike.

50
00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:28,260
I don't know.

51
00:04:28,260 --> 00:04:32,400
but it certainly seems to be spreading.

52
00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:34,820
It started out just as tech stocks

53
00:04:34,820 --> 00:04:37,380
and now there's other stocks involved.

54
00:04:37,940 --> 00:04:41,500
Bitcoin took a dip, stabilized another dip.

55
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,500
I bought today to be clear

56
00:04:44,500 --> 00:04:47,200
just because I see big money buying

57
00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:48,260
and small money selling

58
00:04:48,260 --> 00:04:50,020
and I have a feeling that I might have to hold on to this

59
00:04:50,020 --> 00:04:51,200
for a year as a trade

60
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,960
but I added to a position today.

61
00:04:56,220 --> 00:04:58,120
Then you have China

62
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:03,060
what the hell is going on in China, I'm getting the impression that they're stagnating again.

63
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:09,740
All this is coming out after Japan has a rate problem because their currency is dropping.

64
00:05:10,100 --> 00:05:11,640
And it just doesn't stop.

65
00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,100
So usually, this is the alarm bell for me.

66
00:05:16,380 --> 00:05:24,900
Usually, when we can't, you and I collectively can't get a handle on why something is going down,

67
00:05:24,900 --> 00:05:31,760
Like, in general, the market itself is tech stocks, for example, and nothing is slowing it down.

68
00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,600
I'm under the impression that there's something else going on that we don't see.

69
00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:37,860
And I don't know what that is.

70
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,720
I can't see any more bad news that has to come into this market.

71
00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:48,680
You know, it's, you know, the war in the Middle East is continuing.

72
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,160
The war in Ukraine is continuing.

73
00:05:51,940 --> 00:05:54,880
Trump is in the process of backing off of tariffs.

74
00:05:55,180 --> 00:06:00,500
Maybe it needs to back off of tariffs a little bit harder for this market to stabilize.

75
00:06:01,420 --> 00:06:04,080
But for the life of me, I can't figure it out.

76
00:06:04,660 --> 00:06:05,760
I mean, I can't figure it out.

77
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:12,680
I just don't like my reason for Bitcoin not benefiting from the disinvestment in gold.

78
00:06:12,820 --> 00:06:14,600
Not that I think it should be one-to-one.

79
00:06:15,020 --> 00:06:16,900
I just think there should be some money going into Bitcoin.

80
00:06:17,060 --> 00:06:21,020
It's kind of like disappointing, especially with all the money flowing into Ethereum.

81
00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:22,740
And Ethereum is not moving either.

82
00:06:22,740 --> 00:06:25,780
So, yeah, I'm not sure if you followed the.

83
00:06:26,940 --> 00:06:33,600
The event on October 10th last year in the Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, but there was.

84
00:06:34,380 --> 00:06:38,540
An API problem with Binance specifically that blew up.

85
00:06:38,580 --> 00:06:44,740
I mean, the story is that it blew up a number of market makers, which in turn messed up.

86
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:45,860
I did.

87
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:46,300
Yeah.

88
00:06:46,300 --> 00:07:00,140
So I think there's some people that are saying that the blowback in the aftermath of October 10th is still lingering in the market in the sense that market makers haven't had the confidence to come back and bring a liquidity profile to the market.

89
00:07:01,380 --> 00:07:02,680
I can see that being the case.

90
00:07:02,780 --> 00:07:03,220
Yeah, I don't know.

91
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:04,660
They're not stepping into the breach?

92
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:06,440
I'm not sure what it is.

93
00:07:07,940 --> 00:07:10,320
Yeah, I don't buy the micro strategy stuff.

94
00:07:10,420 --> 00:07:13,740
I mean, I'm not a fan of his approach, but I don't buy that as being a problem.

95
00:07:13,740 --> 00:07:15,660
I buy the problem as being a lack of liquidity.

96
00:07:15,660 --> 00:07:21,280
And it sounds like indirectly we're lining up with the same ideas.

97
00:07:22,540 --> 00:07:26,700
Somebody's not doing what they're supposed to do as a market maker.

98
00:07:27,940 --> 00:07:37,240
And we were mentioning before we hit record, but bringing the focus back to China, there's a particular, would you say, long only fund for gold there specifically?

99
00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:40,340
Oh, yeah, yeah.

100
00:07:40,340 --> 00:07:42,080
Yeah, this is actually very interesting.

101
00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:46,080
And there's really no one that's covering this, but it's correct.

102
00:07:47,060 --> 00:07:50,380
And it's why we're doing what we're doing, meaning whipping up and whipping down.

103
00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:56,480
If you're reading the mainstream media, what you're going to see is truthful arguments.

104
00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:01,800
What they're saying, speculators, first of all, I mean, just in case people aren't familiar with it,

105
00:08:03,180 --> 00:08:07,500
silver and gold together, but silver more exaggerated, spiked to the highs last week,

106
00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:14,880
and now it's getting slaughtered. And the reason it's being given is unhealthy speculation,

107
00:08:15,860 --> 00:08:21,520
momentum trading, and there's truth in that if you're looking at the Chinese speculators.

108
00:08:22,180 --> 00:08:25,640
But in the US, there's no speculation right now. There's very little speculation.

109
00:08:26,460 --> 00:08:32,380
And what's really going on is China has a faulty market structure. Now,

110
00:08:32,380 --> 00:08:37,720
Bitcoin people have to know this. I mean, Bitcoin people have seen this with faulty ETS,

111
00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:44,240
with Mt. Gox and all that shit that you dealt with over the years. But it's kind of like this.

112
00:08:45,100 --> 00:08:51,260
China has a very closed market structure. And so you can trade futures, but not everybody can

113
00:08:51,260 --> 00:08:56,820
trade futures. You have to have your money in a futures account. Most people will look for exposure

114
00:08:56,820 --> 00:09:03,040
in a stock investment, just like in the US, and they'll put it in a fund or an ETF type of product

115
00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:09,660
that gives them exposure. Now, silver has been rallying for good reason,

116
00:09:10,300 --> 00:09:16,980
for related to multiple reasons, but all of them are fundamental. Gold's been being bought by

117
00:09:16,980 --> 00:09:22,680
central banks and silver's being bought because what's happened is gold's gone up so much that

118
00:09:22,680 --> 00:09:25,680
people are looking at silver going, well, maybe that's cheap. Maybe I should buy some silver.

119
00:09:25,680 --> 00:09:31,120
And what they're doing is they're piling into silver now at the same time that industrial

120
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,860
demand is picking up for solar panels.

121
00:09:34,560 --> 00:09:40,040
The reason China is the problem, and I'm not saying this politically or geopolitically,

122
00:09:40,260 --> 00:09:44,740
is because they have a product out there called the SDIC fund.

123
00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:49,380
They only have one equity product for exposure into silver.

124
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,200
And that product is a long-only fund.

125
00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:53,360
So it's not truly an ETF.

126
00:09:54,140 --> 00:09:54,980
You can't short it.

127
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,820
So if you want to buy exposure in silver, you buy it.

128
00:10:00,060 --> 00:10:09,380
Now, all that guy can do is buy futures to parallel how much money has flowed into it, not the price of it.

129
00:10:09,380 --> 00:10:19,780
So if silver rallies a percentage point and you and I are the Wongs and we're out there, we're going, I want to have silver exposure, your choices are limited.

130
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,620
And so you throw your money into this SDIC fund and it goes up 2%.

131
00:10:24,620 --> 00:10:25,880
and then it goes up.

132
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,520
And then so that attracts people going,

133
00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,340
that was up even more than silver.

134
00:10:29,420 --> 00:10:30,260
Maybe we should buy that.

135
00:10:30,340 --> 00:10:32,360
It starts behaving like a leveraged ETF

136
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,360
and it has no right to do that.

137
00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:36,940
Now, there's no one out there keeping a lid on it

138
00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:38,580
by shorting it and buying the futures.

139
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:40,280
There's no arbitrage.

140
00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:41,320
It's a long, only fund.

141
00:10:41,380 --> 00:10:42,140
You can't sell it.

142
00:10:42,900 --> 00:10:44,900
And so this thing, which by the way,

143
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,420
is the perfect vehicle to get a market higher

144
00:10:48,420 --> 00:10:51,260
because the money stays in that fund.

145
00:10:51,260 --> 00:10:52,640
It doesn't go out.

146
00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,840
and it's just kind of like

147
00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,980
bottled up critical mass.

148
00:10:59,340 --> 00:10:59,760
You know what I mean?

149
00:11:02,500 --> 00:11:05,800
And this thing gets out of control

150
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,300
and what happens,

151
00:11:08,420 --> 00:11:09,880
staying focused only on China

152
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:10,460
is China,

153
00:11:10,820 --> 00:11:12,860
85% of the solar panels

154
00:11:12,860 --> 00:11:14,440
that go into Europe

155
00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,820
are sold to them by China

156
00:11:17,820 --> 00:11:19,420
and solar panels use silver.

157
00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:21,880
And India probably does the other 15%.

158
00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:37,220
But their appetite for silver has been just voracious for the last two years, going back to right after the first silver squeeze that they called it.

159
00:11:38,220 --> 00:11:39,960
The second silver squeeze, I should say.

160
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:50,020
And what happened was the industrial demand was getting front run by the US ETF demand.

161
00:11:50,680 --> 00:11:54,900
They usually like to buy during US hours because we're dummies and we sell it all the time, right?

162
00:11:55,540 --> 00:11:56,800
Then it's going out to China.

163
00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,100
Now you've got this long-only fund that people are going, oh, look at that.

164
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:00,880
It's going up 2%.

165
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:01,600
Let's buy it.

166
00:12:02,100 --> 00:12:03,040
And so they're buying it.

167
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:09,840
And the Chinese market structure is such that there is no silver available for them locally.

168
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,800
So they have been depending on a lot of imported silver over the years.

169
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:17,200
And this is where it gets interesting.

170
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:25,440
While all this is going on, all this snowball effect is going on, the United States finally

171
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:32,860
figures out that its supply chains don't work, that it can't get silver or copper or anything

172
00:12:32,860 --> 00:12:34,700
else it needs to build its power grid back.

173
00:12:35,420 --> 00:12:38,320
So it says, wait a minute, we have to start getting raw silver.

174
00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:40,540
We have to start getting finished copper.

175
00:12:40,620 --> 00:12:41,280
We have raw copper.

176
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:43,260
So how do we do that?

177
00:12:43,260 --> 00:12:47,600
Well, we do that by going into Latin America and saying, give us what you got.

178
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:52,640
And Latin America, for the last 10 years, has been selling it to China.

179
00:12:53,420 --> 00:12:54,760
And they still have plenty of it.

180
00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,240
But China is like their customer now.

181
00:12:58,000 --> 00:12:58,900
And so what do we do?

182
00:12:59,780 --> 00:13:03,460
Trump comes out with his Dunro Doctrine, Monroe Doctrine, basically.

183
00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:05,440
And he says, China out of Latin America.

184
00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:06,580
Now, I can confirm this.

185
00:13:06,700 --> 00:13:08,260
You had Josh Farrell on last week.

186
00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,860
And he and I have had conversations from different perspectives.

187
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,040
He's boots on the ground fundamentalist and I'm boots on the ground financial.

188
00:13:16,980 --> 00:13:22,300
And he said to me that he was on a trip recently and he bumped into some military personnel in the Caribbean.

189
00:13:22,300 --> 00:13:31,340
And they told him that they're there now to minimize Chinese influence over Latin American commerce.

190
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,020
And I was like, well, that makes sense.

191
00:13:34,260 --> 00:13:41,720
Then I saw in the marketplace J.P. Morgan starting to take in silver concentrate, which is basically raw silver.

192
00:13:42,860 --> 00:13:47,440
And when you take those two things and combine it with China, that means China is not getting its raw silver.

193
00:13:47,780 --> 00:13:49,340
That means China is getting squeezed.

194
00:13:49,500 --> 00:13:52,940
That means China needs to buy it if they want to sell their solar panels.

195
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,280
And so they started to get short-squeezed over there.

196
00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:01,060
You know, their industry needs to buy it, plus they had some short funds that needed to buy it.

197
00:14:01,340 --> 00:14:07,120
And then come Thanksgiving, we talked, I think, after this, but then come Thanksgiving, J.P. Morgan,

198
00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:14,300
which has a bunch of silver available in the COMEX, gets it pulled by China. And JP Morgan

199
00:14:14,300 --> 00:14:19,500
says, no, we're not giving it to you. So China is now making sure. The US has cut off their

200
00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:24,120
supply chain. We've just gone in and basically invaded Venezuela and deposed the leader Maduro.

201
00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:31,000
I think China is a little bit stressed. And so their industrial business started to buy the silver.

202
00:14:32,260 --> 00:14:35,600
And there's a spread. It's kind of like when you trade Bitcoin in two different exchanges.

203
00:14:36,540 --> 00:14:40,960
Back in the day, you'd have different prices on Binance versus Kraken or what have you.

204
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:49,180
Well, Shanghai is trading 110, and COMEX is trading 100, and you can't buy one on an exchange

205
00:14:49,180 --> 00:14:50,420
and sell it to other because it's physical.

206
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:51,140
You've got to transfer.

207
00:14:51,620 --> 00:14:52,660
It's not that easy to do.

208
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:54,620
Financials are broken down.

209
00:14:54,780 --> 00:14:55,700
You're tariffing me.

210
00:14:55,780 --> 00:14:56,600
I'm tariffing you.

211
00:14:56,700 --> 00:14:58,300
We can't do paper arbitrage.

212
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,080
And before you know it, someone in China gets their ass handed to them, and it spikes.

213
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,920
and then it magically ends overnight.

214
00:15:06,740 --> 00:15:08,040
And so now the market comes off.

215
00:15:08,900 --> 00:15:11,280
They find the silver is what I said.

216
00:15:11,940 --> 00:15:17,760
And the Chinese speculators who are being blamed for this

217
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:22,380
are really a function of the government having these ridiculous products out there

218
00:15:22,380 --> 00:15:25,900
that are imperfect, kind of like the, what was the name of the fund,

219
00:15:25,980 --> 00:15:26,700
the Grayscale Fund?

220
00:15:27,100 --> 00:15:28,380
You know, that's futures.

221
00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:31,600
I mean, it wasn't as obvious that that was a big problem, but same idea.

222
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:44,380
So China has pretty much gone on a buying binge of precious metals for the last three years, and they finally caught someone cheating and lying.

223
00:15:44,420 --> 00:15:46,100
It's going to be just like any other scandal.

224
00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,620
You're going to find out that people were selling silver.

225
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:55,260
They didn't have kind of like the custody and rehypothecation issues that are going on in crypto now.

226
00:15:55,460 --> 00:15:55,960
Same idea.

227
00:15:56,220 --> 00:15:59,240
So I think the market's done for now.

228
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:06,620
I mean, I don't want to give you a directional prediction, except to say that it's gone from being overbought to being oversold in three days.

229
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:08,580
Do I think it's going to go up from here?

230
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:09,080
No.

231
00:16:09,540 --> 00:16:10,720
Do I think it's going to go down from here?

232
00:16:10,900 --> 00:16:11,180
No.

233
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:19,326
I just reiterate what Josh said Between 50 and 150 or more likely between 60 and 110 I don think it going to go back up to 110

234
00:16:23,406 --> 00:16:26,266
But the fundamental problem isn't solved yet.

235
00:16:27,546 --> 00:16:31,126
They still don't have the silver that they need in the future,

236
00:16:31,246 --> 00:16:34,426
and America has pretty much started hoarding it with the critical mineral status.

237
00:16:34,966 --> 00:16:40,746
And the result of that will be, as Josh had said, nine months out,

238
00:16:40,746 --> 00:16:48,066
there's no silver for Europe. And I checked the Bloomberg forward rates and nine months out,

239
00:16:48,126 --> 00:16:54,246
the forward rates for gold and silver are higher. So there's people that are worried about future

240
00:16:54,246 --> 00:17:02,866
supply. It'll be almost like if the having didn't happen. They're dependent on that supply and it's

241
00:17:02,866 --> 00:17:07,146
not there. So that's the long-winded version, but hopefully that helps. Yeah, definitely paints

242
00:17:07,146 --> 00:17:08,766
a better picture.

243
00:17:09,266 --> 00:17:11,626
I mean, you have the mechanical side

244
00:17:11,626 --> 00:17:15,246
of the issue, which you just described.

245
00:17:15,326 --> 00:17:16,746
But then even last week,

246
00:17:16,946 --> 00:17:18,666
the social side was really

247
00:17:18,666 --> 00:17:21,946
beginning to send alarm bells to me.

248
00:17:22,046 --> 00:17:24,366
I mean, just both charts were parabolas.

249
00:17:24,726 --> 00:17:26,606
And then you have people in line.

250
00:17:26,666 --> 00:17:28,066
I had a buddy in the Bitcoin space.

251
00:17:28,206 --> 00:17:29,026
He's an Australian.

252
00:17:29,026 --> 00:17:30,486
He wrote a tweet thread about.

253
00:17:32,106 --> 00:17:34,226
He was like, okay, I've hit my target.

254
00:17:34,326 --> 00:17:35,886
So I'm going to take my risk off the table

255
00:17:35,886 --> 00:17:40,686
and went to a physical dealer shop to sell some of his silver,

256
00:17:40,946 --> 00:17:41,966
and the line was out the door,

257
00:17:42,186 --> 00:17:44,826
and people were talking about how they were up 100%

258
00:17:44,826 --> 00:17:46,606
on the trades they made three weeks before.

259
00:17:46,806 --> 00:17:47,086
Oh, yeah.

260
00:17:47,986 --> 00:17:51,246
He had the mania aspect of it, lean in full bore.

261
00:17:53,886 --> 00:17:59,346
You guys joke about the boomers finally making money in silver.

262
00:17:59,746 --> 00:18:02,066
That meme is real.

263
00:18:02,846 --> 00:18:06,226
Silver had $50, and gray-haired guys were lining up.

264
00:18:06,746 --> 00:18:07,806
But I was getting calls.

265
00:18:07,866 --> 00:18:08,406
How about this?

266
00:18:09,126 --> 00:18:12,746
I was getting calls when silver was trading $70 on the way up.

267
00:18:13,586 --> 00:18:17,426
And dealers were calling me up saying, I just got a bunch of junk.

268
00:18:17,546 --> 00:18:22,726
And for those of you that aren't familiar with junk, junk is pre-1965 coins, which are 90% silver.

269
00:18:22,726 --> 00:18:25,326
And they trade at 90% of the silver weight.

270
00:18:25,326 --> 00:18:36,346
And we're talking about $400 in quarters that's worth thousands of dollars, like tens of thousands of dollars.

271
00:18:36,586 --> 00:18:38,406
So a quarter is worth $70.

272
00:18:39,386 --> 00:18:46,066
At one point, it was like that because it was almost an ounce or a little bit less than an ounce, 90% of $70.

273
00:18:46,566 --> 00:18:51,326
When I was trading $100, a 1964 quarter was worth $70.

274
00:18:52,486 --> 00:18:53,326
That's insane.

275
00:18:53,326 --> 00:18:59,166
insane. And you and I look at it, we go, that's insane. But meanwhile, it happened that it

276
00:18:59,166 --> 00:19:05,826
persisted for a little period of time. Well, during that timeframe, everyone over the age of 60,

277
00:19:06,066 --> 00:19:12,346
over the age of 70, with bags of coins in their basement, were going through them and bringing

278
00:19:12,346 --> 00:19:17,406
them and dumping them on the lap of all these dealers. Here, what will you give me for this?

279
00:19:17,526 --> 00:19:21,286
And they were buying it like $10 on their spot because these are older people. They're getting

280
00:19:21,286 --> 00:19:27,046
advantage taken of them. Maybe they don't know. And I started getting calls during this time.

281
00:19:27,306 --> 00:19:31,286
Hey, Vince, are you in the market for silver? I'm like, nope, not buying right now. I'm trading it.

282
00:19:31,346 --> 00:19:38,046
I'm long it, but I'm not buying physical right here. Well, I got some junk coins. I'm like,

283
00:19:38,046 --> 00:19:43,306
yeah, okay. I don't want junk coins. I don't own a refinery. But I understand the merit of them.

284
00:19:43,386 --> 00:19:48,286
He goes, well, I'll give it to you at $3 on your spot. And I'm like, whoa, that's cheap. I'm like,

285
00:19:48,286 --> 00:19:54,146
all right, fine, I'll take some. Then the next day, Silver's trading 95. And I go,

286
00:19:54,186 --> 00:19:58,646
do you still have any of those coins left? He goes, yeah, I do. I'm like, really? Why isn't

287
00:19:58,646 --> 00:20:04,386
anyone buying these? And he said it to me. He said, because they won't stop coming in the door.

288
00:20:04,846 --> 00:20:09,386
All these old people are coming and going, here's my quarters. Can I have some cash? Can I have some

289
00:20:09,386 --> 00:20:14,506
cash? If only they were young enough to buy Bitcoin, I guess, right? But they're selling

290
00:20:14,506 --> 00:20:20,386
it like the meme is real it's real and and but then something weird happened and i almost i almost

291
00:20:20,386 --> 00:20:28,846
got frothy myself um it broke 105 and i called the guy up i go you still have those coins

292
00:20:28,846 --> 00:20:35,466
no i mean what happened he goes everybody cleaned him out just yesterday and i went

293
00:20:35,466 --> 00:20:42,566
so at that point he said to me i didn't say it to him he said to me we are in the fomo stage now

294
00:20:42,566 --> 00:20:46,026
We are in the froth now because when people are calling him up,

295
00:20:46,186 --> 00:20:49,346
because I call up a check, he's like, people were calling me up going,

296
00:20:49,506 --> 00:20:53,026
buy more, buy more. He goes, they thought it was over a hundred dollars.

297
00:20:53,126 --> 00:20:56,766
It's never going to go back down again. And sure enough, he was right.

298
00:20:56,826 --> 00:20:59,466
That was the top. His name was Brian. That was the top.

299
00:20:59,746 --> 00:21:02,726
He was right about that. Brian Kuzma. So anyway,

300
00:21:03,586 --> 00:21:08,186
it's a shit show. It's like, it's like any other media, you know?

301
00:21:08,186 --> 00:21:10,246
that's funny that you had

302
00:21:10,246 --> 00:21:13,066
all the silver influencers

303
00:21:13,066 --> 00:21:15,206
on X saying we're going to 150

304
00:21:15,206 --> 00:21:17,306
we're going to 200 we're getting back to the

305
00:21:17,306 --> 00:21:19,506
gold silver ratio of years past

306
00:21:19,506 --> 00:21:21,166
so it's at least got to go to 500

307
00:21:21,166 --> 00:21:21,686
eventually

308
00:21:21,686 --> 00:21:24,646
and I don't know gravity

309
00:21:24,646 --> 00:21:26,806
looking at the chart it's like gravity has to

310
00:21:26,806 --> 00:21:28,106
set in at some point

311
00:21:28,106 --> 00:21:31,246
oh yeah

312
00:21:31,246 --> 00:21:31,886
I mean

313
00:21:31,886 --> 00:21:35,506
the

314
00:21:35,506 --> 00:21:37,726
the argument

315
00:21:37,726 --> 00:21:43,606
of silver going to $500, I don't buy into because I haven't really heard an argument. I just heard a

316
00:21:43,606 --> 00:21:50,166
price prediction. The argument of silver going to $200 or $300, I do buy into, but not tomorrow.

317
00:21:50,626 --> 00:21:56,086
And the reason I buy into it is real simple. If you go back and you look at what happens to

318
00:21:56,086 --> 00:22:02,086
any mineral when the US puts it on a critical minerals list, using lithium and uranium as the

319
00:22:02,086 --> 00:22:08,126
examples, when they get put on the list within five years, they triple in value. And when silver

320
00:22:08,126 --> 00:22:15,066
was put on the critical mineral list, it was worth $40. But it triples in five years. This tripled

321
00:22:15,066 --> 00:22:20,566
essentially in five months, right? What's that, August, September, October, November, December,

322
00:22:20,566 --> 00:22:27,326
five months. I mean, that's insane, right? So for me, as a trader who says, I actually

323
00:22:27,326 --> 00:22:34,606
handicapped this. I said, silver should go to $143 within 50 months. That was my math. As soon

324
00:22:34,606 --> 00:22:38,766
as they made it critical minerals, I went, all right, lithium is the home run. Uranium is a

325
00:22:38,766 --> 00:22:45,506
little bit less of a home run. I'll average the home runs. $143 in 50 months. So I bought it.

326
00:22:46,046 --> 00:22:52,726
And then it goes to $80 in three months. And I go, okay, maybe it's going to shoot to 200,

327
00:22:52,726 --> 00:22:53,906
and then back down to $140.

328
00:22:54,186 --> 00:22:55,146
But this is goofy.

329
00:22:55,786 --> 00:22:58,026
Goes up to $120, and that's the end of it.

330
00:22:58,086 --> 00:22:59,146
That's the complete end of it.

331
00:22:59,766 --> 00:23:05,326
And so if you say to me, do you think it'd go to $200, $300 over the next five years?

332
00:23:05,386 --> 00:23:06,226
I'm like, yeah, absolutely.

333
00:23:06,726 --> 00:23:08,246
Do I think it's going to happen in the next five minutes?

334
00:23:08,786 --> 00:23:10,726
No, this market is ridiculously overbought.

335
00:23:10,986 --> 00:23:12,706
And everybody's so smart about that now.

336
00:23:12,706 --> 00:23:18,086
But I have a lot of subscribers that wanted it to go even higher.

337
00:23:18,186 --> 00:23:22,066
And I kept saying to them, don't buy it anymore.

338
00:23:22,726 --> 00:23:28,586
Take profits. Don't sell your physical. Sell paper if you have to. Don't buy it. And, you know,

339
00:23:29,426 --> 00:23:34,786
it turned out to be wrong for two weeks. But when it's right, man, it's horrible. You know how it is.

340
00:23:35,006 --> 00:23:38,526
So, Freaks, if you've been listening for a while, you've probably heard us all talk about BitKey.

341
00:23:38,926 --> 00:23:42,866
It's a Bitcoin wallet built for people who want self-custody to actually fit into their lives.

342
00:23:43,226 --> 00:23:46,046
BitKey is a private multi-sig wallet that removes the biggest point of failure in traditional

343
00:23:46,046 --> 00:23:50,066
self-custody, the seed phrase. No ceremony, nothing to hide, and no single mistake that

344
00:23:50,066 --> 00:23:54,526
can put your Bitcoin at risk. We all know things get lost. I lose things all the time. Phones get

345
00:23:54,526 --> 00:23:59,046
replaced. Life happens. BitKey specifically is designed so your Bitcoin stays secure and

346
00:23:59,046 --> 00:24:03,286
recoverable without demanding constant attention or expertise because it's built for the long term.

347
00:24:03,706 --> 00:24:07,026
Inheritance is built in so your Bitcoin can move securely into the next generation.

348
00:24:07,546 --> 00:24:11,346
It's Bitcoin self-custody built for real life and for February only for you freaks, okay?

349
00:24:11,786 --> 00:24:16,566
February only. You got 28 days, not a leap year. I'm pretty sure. 28 days. You listeners,

350
00:24:16,566 --> 00:24:25,326
TFTC listeners and get BitKey for $99 using code TFTC99 at BitKey.world. That's B-I-T-K-E-Y.world.

351
00:24:25,706 --> 00:24:30,166
Use the code TFTC99 and you're going to get a BitKey for $99.

352
00:24:30,646 --> 00:24:33,446
What's up, freaks? This report was brought to you by good friends at Silent. Silent creates

353
00:24:33,446 --> 00:24:37,266
everyday, fair day gear that protects your hardware. We're in Bitcoin. We have a lot of

354
00:24:37,266 --> 00:24:41,106
hardware that we need to secure. Your wallet emits signals that can leave you vulnerable.

355
00:24:41,666 --> 00:24:45,826
You want to pick up Silent's gear, put your hardware in that. I have a tap signer right here.

356
00:24:45,826 --> 00:24:49,926
I got the silent card holder replaced my wallet. I was using Ridge wallet because it's secured

357
00:24:49,926 --> 00:24:55,046
against RFID signal jacking. Silent, the card holder does the same thing. It's much sleeker,

358
00:24:55,246 --> 00:24:59,526
fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve, which you can put a hardware

359
00:24:59,526 --> 00:25:02,886
wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys at the house too. There's been a lot of robberies.

360
00:25:02,986 --> 00:25:07,326
They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks. It's a Bitcoin company. They're

361
00:25:07,326 --> 00:25:11,566
running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury. They accept Bitcoin via strike. So go to

362
00:25:11,566 --> 00:25:18,486
slnt.com slash tftc to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code tftc when shopping at

363
00:25:18,486 --> 00:25:23,506
slnt.com. Patented technology, special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go check

364
00:25:23,506 --> 00:25:32,466
it out. We're shifting this back to the geopolitics of the day. I think that's the big question. I'm

365
00:25:32,466 --> 00:25:38,626
pulling Warsh into this, the Monroe Doctrine, the Don Rowe Doctrine as well. I think Warsh

366
00:25:38,626 --> 00:25:45,286
is a particularly interesting pick considering the fact that he's basically an understudy of

367
00:25:45,286 --> 00:25:52,206
Stan Druckenmiller, who Secretary of Assent has worked with as well in the past. And obviously,

368
00:25:52,206 --> 00:25:58,106
we've had this for saber-addling from Trump for two years about consolidating Treasury and Fed

369
00:25:58,106 --> 00:26:04,926
policy. And it seems like Kevin Warsh is the guy that will go affect that policy since him and

370
00:26:04,926 --> 00:26:12,206
Scott Besson are very close and have the same sort of market teacher in their careers.

371
00:26:13,286 --> 00:26:20,266
And it seems like we're going to have a consolidated front between the Fed and the Treasury, which will have geopolitical implications.

372
00:26:20,266 --> 00:26:28,806
And I think Scott Besson said it publicly a few weeks ago, what was the most surprising part of taking the Treasury job.

373
00:26:28,846 --> 00:26:33,206
And it was national security, which geopolitics plays into.

374
00:26:33,206 --> 00:26:38,486
So what's your view on how things are being set up on the geopolitical side of things right now?

375
00:26:40,746 --> 00:26:48,226
That's well, starting with your your your your savvy comment about the whole Soros Druckenmiller relationship.

376
00:26:48,226 --> 00:26:54,166
It's like Druckenmiller's got his his buddies in there now, you know, Warsh and Besson.

377
00:26:55,926 --> 00:27:02,286
Geopolitically, as it manifests locally, there's a very clear thread about the point you brought up there.

378
00:27:02,286 --> 00:27:05,226
And that is the world is deglobalizing.

379
00:27:05,426 --> 00:27:19,006
And because the world is deglobalizing, without getting into the minutiae of it, when the world was globalized, the Fed was the most important part because monetary policy allowed us to reach out into other countries.

380
00:27:19,986 --> 00:27:22,366
Fiscal policy is tax and spend at home.

381
00:27:22,766 --> 00:27:25,206
The fiscal policy is essentially tax and spend.

382
00:27:25,646 --> 00:27:27,486
The monetary policy is print and distribute.

383
00:27:28,286 --> 00:27:29,926
So monetary policy is the network.

384
00:27:30,666 --> 00:27:35,326
Fiscal policy is the money.

385
00:27:36,366 --> 00:27:43,726
So as the world deglobalizes, and you can see this in the personalities of the leaders being hired.

386
00:27:44,346 --> 00:27:45,486
They're regional leaders.

387
00:27:45,866 --> 00:27:47,046
They're nationalistic.

388
00:27:47,286 --> 00:27:48,346
They're more conservative.

389
00:27:48,786 --> 00:27:51,986
They're less worried about kumbaya all over the world.

390
00:27:51,986 --> 00:27:54,746
They're more interested in their own national priorities.

391
00:27:54,746 --> 00:28:01,146
Well, as that happens, all these countries we all know are fixing their supply chains.

392
00:28:01,346 --> 00:28:01,506
Fine.

393
00:28:02,346 --> 00:28:06,626
But what we don't talk about is they're fixing their money chains, which is their payment

394
00:28:06,626 --> 00:28:08,686
rails, which is their payment chains.

395
00:28:09,066 --> 00:28:12,306
And those are equally important for a different reason.

396
00:28:12,686 --> 00:28:16,466
So I'm a country in Europe.

397
00:28:17,726 --> 00:28:19,126
Italy is a good example.

398
00:28:19,906 --> 00:28:21,566
Italy's got fragile supply chains.

399
00:28:21,566 --> 00:28:22,566
It depended on China.

400
00:28:22,746 --> 00:28:23,606
It depended on Europe.

401
00:28:23,726 --> 00:28:24,586
It depended on Africa.

402
00:28:24,746 --> 00:28:25,966
dependent on the U.S.

403
00:28:25,966 --> 00:28:27,086
And so they're working on those,

404
00:28:27,166 --> 00:28:27,986
getting those fixed up.

405
00:28:28,126 --> 00:28:28,886
You know, we need to get our

406
00:28:28,886 --> 00:28:29,946
this from there,

407
00:28:30,046 --> 00:28:30,846
energy from there,

408
00:28:30,966 --> 00:28:31,666
energy from there.

409
00:28:32,246 --> 00:28:34,246
But also monetarily,

410
00:28:34,546 --> 00:28:36,846
they recognize that

411
00:28:36,846 --> 00:28:38,646
they have to build

412
00:28:38,646 --> 00:28:39,546
their own military.

413
00:28:39,926 --> 00:28:40,826
They have to build

414
00:28:40,826 --> 00:28:41,526
their own infrastructure.

415
00:28:41,706 --> 00:28:42,386
And you don't do that

416
00:28:42,386 --> 00:28:43,426
with monetary policy.

417
00:28:43,846 --> 00:28:45,346
You do that with fiscal policy.

418
00:28:45,826 --> 00:28:46,846
You raise taxes

419
00:28:46,846 --> 00:28:47,546
or what have you.

420
00:28:47,646 --> 00:28:49,206
But when you do that,

421
00:28:49,766 --> 00:28:50,586
you make your investment,

422
00:28:50,666 --> 00:28:53,026
you make your central banker

423
00:28:53,026 --> 00:28:53,726
less important.

424
00:28:54,746 --> 00:28:59,726
And in fact, they've gotten so adamant in this that they've said to their central bank,

425
00:29:00,566 --> 00:29:03,766
that gold that you're holding, they hold on to their gold at the central bank level.

426
00:29:03,846 --> 00:29:04,486
We don't do that here.

427
00:29:05,186 --> 00:29:08,126
That gold that you're holding on to, that's ours, give it back.

428
00:29:08,246 --> 00:29:11,966
So essentially, their treasury said to the central bank, give us the gold back.

429
00:29:12,346 --> 00:29:19,106
In the US, as you rightly bring up, the subordination of the Fed to the treasury is happening.

430
00:29:19,106 --> 00:29:24,586
The Fed will either fold into the treasury or, you know what?

431
00:29:24,746 --> 00:29:27,926
Now that I'm thinking about this, yeah, this is a good point.

432
00:29:28,066 --> 00:29:29,626
I mean, this is a good point because of what you brought up.

433
00:29:30,426 --> 00:29:36,586
If the Fed gets subordinated to the Treasury, becomes more dependent on it, becomes more

434
00:29:36,586 --> 00:29:41,486
beholden to it, then the Fed becomes the break.

435
00:29:42,446 --> 00:29:46,466
You know, the fiscal side is we're going to print money, but we're going to give it to

436
00:29:46,466 --> 00:29:50,546
this industry and that industry and this industry and that industry, as opposed to the Fed printing

437
00:29:50,546 --> 00:29:52,746
money and just raining money on everyone in QA.

438
00:29:53,406 --> 00:30:07,826
So what you have now is you have Besset saying we need to print money, it needs to go to that industry, defense, infrastructure, power grids, things like that, as opposed to the Fed just printing money and saying it goes where it goes.

439
00:30:07,826 --> 00:30:15,246
So the subordination of the Fed to the Treasury is a symptom of the geopolitical changes that are coming on.

440
00:30:15,386 --> 00:30:17,866
And that is monetary policy doesn't matter.

441
00:30:17,866 --> 00:30:23,146
we can't influence people's economies with monetary policy as much anymore,

442
00:30:23,386 --> 00:30:24,806
and we've got to take care of home.

443
00:30:25,066 --> 00:30:28,826
So I think it's possible, coming back to your point,

444
00:30:29,386 --> 00:30:35,266
it's quite possible that the market is looking at this saying the punch bowl is really over.

445
00:30:35,706 --> 00:30:42,826
Maybe Warsh isn't a hawk, but if Besson's in control, maybe we're going to be raising rates.

446
00:30:42,946 --> 00:30:47,606
So I think that's a valid argument that we should think about.

447
00:30:47,866 --> 00:30:49,966
Maybe the party is over.

448
00:30:50,846 --> 00:30:54,826
I've recorded a recap episode of the fund.

449
00:30:55,626 --> 00:30:56,886
I'm a partner at 1031.

450
00:30:58,146 --> 00:31:10,926
One of our principals there, John Arnold, he writes a weekly recap, and this week was focused on the Warsh nomination and dissecting his views on Fed policy and what he would do.

451
00:31:10,926 --> 00:31:14,326
and he's explicitly said, hey, I would like to bring rates down lower,

452
00:31:14,486 --> 00:31:17,426
but I don't want to expand the monetary base.

453
00:31:18,846 --> 00:31:24,026
And I think that's all well and good to think about,

454
00:31:24,106 --> 00:31:26,366
but structurally, is it actually possible?

455
00:31:28,746 --> 00:31:30,306
Is John Arnold on your board?

456
00:31:30,306 --> 00:31:32,866
No, it's not. It's the real John Arnold.

457
00:31:32,986 --> 00:31:35,106
It's not John Arnold from the John Arnold Foundation,

458
00:31:35,706 --> 00:31:38,026
the billionaire commodities trader.

459
00:31:38,186 --> 00:31:39,066
It's another one.

460
00:31:40,926 --> 00:31:47,946
No, I say that because I could have given you a John Arnold story about how he picked my pocket for $2 million.

461
00:31:48,386 --> 00:31:50,506
Well, take it here. It's not the John Arnold I'm talking about.

462
00:31:52,606 --> 00:31:55,846
All right. I'm referring to John Arnold.

463
00:31:56,046 --> 00:32:00,106
I mean, this is actually a pretty funny story because this is a nightmare for me that I survived.

464
00:32:00,306 --> 00:32:02,446
So I'll give you a trading story here.

465
00:32:02,666 --> 00:32:09,726
During the early O's, 01, 02, there were natural gas problems.

466
00:32:09,726 --> 00:32:12,126
There was hurricane season, there was winter coming up,

467
00:32:12,126 --> 00:32:15,966
and the October contract and the March contract

468
00:32:15,966 --> 00:32:19,066
are the two contracts that get the most volatile.

469
00:32:19,066 --> 00:32:23,106
And there were these very exotic options

470
00:32:23,106 --> 00:32:24,306
called spread options.

471
00:32:24,306 --> 00:32:41,272
So March versus April the spread itself can be very volatile And I was the market maker I was the designated market maker in this product on the NYMEX floor And they were extremely complex and very difficult to trade

472
00:32:41,612 --> 00:32:48,832
It'd be like trading options on crack spreads. It'd be like trading options on two commodities,

473
00:32:49,012 --> 00:32:51,572
like crack spreads, you know, heating oil versus gasoline and what have you.

474
00:32:51,952 --> 00:32:57,592
But the two months that this customer picked, I didn't know who the customer was at the time.

475
00:32:58,192 --> 00:32:59,732
This customer picked was March, April.

476
00:32:59,852 --> 00:33:02,172
And these months are typically very dangerous.

477
00:33:02,792 --> 00:33:03,832
March is the end of the winter.

478
00:33:04,392 --> 00:33:06,532
And if it's a cold winter, March explodes.

479
00:33:07,112 --> 00:33:08,372
And April's the beginning of the summer.

480
00:33:08,932 --> 00:33:10,272
And nobody ever wants April.

481
00:33:10,392 --> 00:33:12,732
So there's a seasonality like March, April.

482
00:33:12,892 --> 00:33:13,772
Nobody cares about it.

483
00:33:14,072 --> 00:33:16,412
And at the time, March and April were kind of like right here.

484
00:33:17,032 --> 00:33:17,992
Nothing was going on.

485
00:33:18,552 --> 00:33:22,052
And so here I am selling these calls to some guy.

486
00:33:22,912 --> 00:33:24,572
Some guy, you know, on the floor.

487
00:33:24,572 --> 00:33:31,972
but I'm like, I'm 80% of the liquidity. And he's got a huge position. And then don't you know it,

488
00:33:32,272 --> 00:33:39,692
cold snap, market rallies. Now I'm losing my ass. Okay. I don't know it's John Arnold yet,

489
00:33:39,772 --> 00:33:46,192
but it is John Arnold. I'm losing my ass. He was running Centaurus at the time and he had just

490
00:33:46,192 --> 00:33:55,272
crushed Brian Hunter at Amaranth. I knew people at Amaranth as well. Anyway, so natural gas starts

491
00:33:55,272 --> 00:34:02,792
to rip. I panic, the good panic, and I cover my risk. I still have these stupid options on.

492
00:34:02,792 --> 00:34:09,332
You can't get out of them. They're like a roach motel. And I knew who John Arne was. He was

493
00:34:09,332 --> 00:34:14,552
respected. He was legitimate, and he was an ethical, massive trader in natural gas.

494
00:34:14,552 --> 00:34:20,252
and you always wanted to know if you traded with him because he was going to be right and you better

495
00:34:20,252 --> 00:34:26,612
overhedge. But I didn't know I traded with him. So the market's on the highs. I actually turn a

496
00:34:26,612 --> 00:34:36,192
profit, a big profit, easily seven figures, let's put it that way. And I decide to get out of half

497
00:34:36,192 --> 00:34:41,752
of my risk, which means I need to go back to that customer and get him to give me the other half of

498
00:34:41,752 --> 00:34:47,032
my risk. So I turned to the broker. This is the floor at the time. I turned to the broker and I go,

499
00:34:47,592 --> 00:34:51,332
hey, that customer of yours that bought all those March, April calls from me,

500
00:34:51,892 --> 00:34:56,992
calls, they were bullish calls. I go, call him up. I want to buy them back. They're worth us

501
00:34:56,992 --> 00:35:03,632
at this point. They already done their work. Call him up. I want them back. Guy calls him up.

502
00:35:05,292 --> 00:35:08,672
Vince, I got him on the phone. He says he doesn't want to get rid of him.

503
00:35:08,672 --> 00:35:16,412
now I'm kind of panicking I'm like why why he goes because he turned them into puts which meant he's

504
00:35:16,412 --> 00:35:23,172
now bearish and so my apparently they say my face turned green and then white I'm like who's your

505
00:35:23,172 --> 00:35:28,472
customer and he went well I shouldn't say who it is but it's the guy named after the bakery

506
00:35:28,472 --> 00:35:36,792
Arnold Bread and I go and I looked at him I said Centaurus he goes yeah I go I turned around and I

507
00:35:36,792 --> 00:35:40,432
went into the ring and I panicked. I bought everything that I had to get back to cover my

508
00:35:40,432 --> 00:35:46,192
position. And I lost everything that week, everything. I completely lost everything that

509
00:35:46,192 --> 00:35:50,392
week because the market went down and he actually said on the phone, this is a nice guy he is. He

510
00:35:50,392 --> 00:35:55,292
was just, sorry, but he really needs them. And you know what? I know that he meant that. He probably

511
00:35:55,292 --> 00:36:01,072
was screwing me over a little bit too, but that's okay. He's a good trader and I respected that.

512
00:36:01,752 --> 00:36:06,772
Anyway, so they carried me out on a stretcher a week later because of John Arnold. So

513
00:36:06,772 --> 00:36:13,472
when you said his name, I immediately had PTSD flashbacks. I'm like, John Arnold. Anyway,

514
00:36:13,912 --> 00:36:17,592
that's it. I just wanted to mention that to you. It's a good story. It's a funny story because

515
00:36:17,592 --> 00:36:25,072
I'm still alive to talk about it. But I lost seven figures that I had made and then lost

516
00:36:25,072 --> 00:36:31,012
seven figures. So I went from, let's say, I'll make a number up, up 2 million to down 1 million

517
00:36:31,012 --> 00:36:34,972
in three days. It was a complete disaster.

518
00:36:35,572 --> 00:36:37,012
That's a whipsaw. I almost died.

519
00:36:38,332 --> 00:36:42,772
I mean, a lesson in survivability, too, in the short term. I mean, maybe some lessons for people out there

520
00:36:42,772 --> 00:36:45,632
just got wiped out this week, whether it's in Bitcoin, gold or silver.

521
00:36:46,732 --> 00:36:50,792
It's long. I know, right? I mean, I got lucky.

522
00:36:50,792 --> 00:36:54,932
I got lucky to survive that, but I'll never forget that because I knew

523
00:36:54,932 --> 00:36:56,052
who he was. And I'm like,

524
00:36:56,052 --> 00:37:04,092
and I'm like he's not a dick if he's not selling him to me then maybe he's he means it and I went

525
00:37:04,092 --> 00:37:08,892
all right I'll go in the ring I'll start covering what's Vince know what's he know like people were

526
00:37:08,892 --> 00:37:13,092
freaking out what does he know I'll tell you what I know I'm gonna lose my ass if I don't do this

527
00:37:13,092 --> 00:37:19,292
and of course I lost my ass anyway so yeah our John Arnold has a good uh a good story

528
00:37:19,292 --> 00:37:24,632
too he used to work at Citadel uh for Ken Griffin he's told this publicly so I think he's

529
00:37:24,632 --> 00:37:29,192
comfortable with me sharing it, but he gets an email one day from Ken Griffin's

530
00:37:30,192 --> 00:37:35,552
executive assistant, like, Hey, Ken wants to talk to you. And at the time he's like a low level

531
00:37:35,552 --> 00:37:42,212
analyst, lower level analyst at Citadel. And he's like, Oh God, the big boss wants to talk to me.

532
00:37:42,212 --> 00:37:46,512
And like, ask the executive assistant, like, are you sure? He's like, yeah, he wants to talk to

533
00:37:46,512 --> 00:37:52,192
John Arnold. Um, here's his number, give him a call. So he calls him up and Ken Griffin's like,

534
00:37:52,192 --> 00:37:56,232
hey, John, what do you think about this gala next week?

535
00:37:57,112 --> 00:38:00,972
And our John Arnold's doing research, trying to answer.

536
00:38:01,652 --> 00:38:03,572
On the go, and then 30 seconds into the call,

537
00:38:03,652 --> 00:38:07,072
Ken realizes it's not the John Arnold that you were telling a story about

538
00:38:07,072 --> 00:38:08,312
and says, oh, I got to guess.

539
00:38:11,512 --> 00:38:13,332
Oh, my God, that's funny.

540
00:38:13,732 --> 00:38:16,192
He probably gets a big name, Michael Jordan.

541
00:38:16,192 --> 00:38:17,112
Yeah, I have an uncle.

542
00:38:18,332 --> 00:38:19,792
That's a similar situation.

543
00:38:20,452 --> 00:38:20,932
What's up, Freaks?

544
00:38:20,932 --> 00:38:23,052
When you take Bitcoin seriously, you start with custody.

545
00:38:23,352 --> 00:38:25,472
You want to control your keys, avoid single points of failure,

546
00:38:25,672 --> 00:38:28,792
and make sure your savings cannot disappear because you or someone else screwed up.

547
00:38:28,892 --> 00:38:31,112
That is what Unchained has been focused on since 2016.

548
00:38:31,432 --> 00:38:36,152
Unchained is the leader in collaborative multi-sig custody and Bitcoin financial services that keep you in control.

549
00:38:36,332 --> 00:38:39,712
They secure over $12 billion in Bitcoin for more than 12,000 clients.

550
00:38:40,112 --> 00:38:43,632
That means about one out of every 200 Bitcoin sits inside an Unchained vault.

551
00:38:43,792 --> 00:38:44,472
Their model is simple.

552
00:38:44,572 --> 00:38:46,132
You hold two keys, they hold one key.

553
00:38:46,252 --> 00:38:50,652
It always takes two keys to move Bitcoin, meaning their single key can't access your Bitcoin on its own.

554
00:38:50,652 --> 00:38:54,632
Just resilient, shared custody that gives you institutional-grade security while keeping you sovereign.

555
00:38:54,832 --> 00:39:03,372
Unchain also lets you trade straight from your vault, access Bitcoin-backed commercial loans, open a Bitcoin IRA where you hold your own keys, and set up personal, business, trust, or retirement vaults.

556
00:39:03,472 --> 00:39:06,272
They even offer inheritance solutions built for long-term hodlers.

557
00:39:06,512 --> 00:39:15,452
Or opt for the highest-level private client service with Unchain Signature and get a dedicated account manager, discounted trading fees, exclusive access to events and features, and much, much more.

558
00:39:15,452 --> 00:39:24,892
If you want a partner that helps you secure and grow your Bitcoin without giving up control, go to Unchained.com and use the code TFTC10 at checkout to get 10% off your new Bitcoin multisig vault.

559
00:39:25,052 --> 00:39:27,652
That's TFTC10 at Unchained.com.

560
00:39:27,772 --> 00:39:28,372
What's up, freaks?

561
00:39:29,112 --> 00:39:30,632
I've been seeing a lot of YouTube comments.

562
00:39:30,732 --> 00:39:31,932
Marty, your skin looks so good.

563
00:39:32,152 --> 00:39:33,532
You're looking fit these days.

564
00:39:34,732 --> 00:39:35,632
How are you doing it?

565
00:39:35,692 --> 00:39:37,092
Well, number one, I'm going to the gym more.

566
00:39:37,852 --> 00:39:38,812
Trying to get my swell on.

567
00:39:39,832 --> 00:39:43,332
Trying to be a good example for my young son to fit.

568
00:39:44,132 --> 00:39:44,752
Healthy dad.

569
00:39:44,752 --> 00:39:51,672
But part of that is having a good regimen, particularly staying hydrated, making sure I have the right electrolytes and salts in my body.

570
00:39:51,832 --> 00:39:53,452
That is why I use salt of the earth.

571
00:39:53,792 --> 00:39:59,092
I drink probably three of these a day with one packet of salt of the earth.

572
00:39:59,152 --> 00:40:00,512
I'm liking the pink lemonade right now.

573
00:40:00,812 --> 00:40:01,912
It's my flavor of choice.

574
00:40:02,932 --> 00:40:04,052
This is their creatine.

575
00:40:04,192 --> 00:40:05,272
I've added this to my regimen.

576
00:40:05,392 --> 00:40:07,152
They have it in these packets as well.

577
00:40:07,912 --> 00:40:09,992
Makes it extremely convenient if you're traveling.

578
00:40:09,992 --> 00:40:15,252
You want to work out while you're traveling, but you don't want to be carrying a white bag of powder going through TSA.

579
00:40:15,532 --> 00:40:18,392
It's very, very nerve wracking at times.

580
00:40:18,452 --> 00:40:19,232
You have to explain hates.

581
00:40:19,412 --> 00:40:20,592
It's not what you think it is.

582
00:40:20,632 --> 00:40:21,152
It's creatine.

583
00:40:21,232 --> 00:40:22,272
I'm trying to get my swell on.

584
00:40:23,632 --> 00:40:24,772
Make sure you're staying hydrated.

585
00:40:25,612 --> 00:40:27,532
I have become addicted to these.

586
00:40:27,632 --> 00:40:30,632
It's made my life a lot better.

587
00:40:31,052 --> 00:40:35,052
I can supplement this for coffee in the morning and be energized right away.

588
00:40:35,492 --> 00:40:36,332
I can supplement.

589
00:40:36,852 --> 00:40:39,012
I can bring the creatine wherever I need to.

590
00:40:39,012 --> 00:40:47,672
I just put a couple packets in here before I head to the gym, bring this to the gym, drink it out of a glass bottle, make sure I'm not injecting any microplastics into my body.

591
00:40:48,092 --> 00:40:53,772
Go to drinksauté.com, use the code TFTC, and you'll get 15% off anything in the store.

592
00:40:53,972 --> 00:40:56,192
That's drinksauté.com, code TFTC.

593
00:40:56,192 --> 00:41:15,132
Bringing this back to Warsh and what John Arnold and I were discussing this morning is I think Warsh has publicly said he'd like to do interest rate, lower interest rates, but restrict the expansion of the balance sheet, not only restrict it, but begin or continue to unwind the Fed balance sheet.

594
00:41:15,132 --> 00:41:18,392
And we were discussing that.

595
00:41:18,532 --> 00:41:24,612
I think the probability of being able to execute on that is very low.

596
00:41:26,132 --> 00:41:26,912
And John was.

597
00:41:27,252 --> 00:41:27,592
Yeah.

598
00:41:30,412 --> 00:41:31,252
I'm sorry.

599
00:41:31,452 --> 00:41:33,072
I was going to say, John was explaining there.

600
00:41:33,312 --> 00:41:43,032
You could get QE via another route, which is you push all that treasury buying onto the commercial banking system by changing the SLR and other stuff.

601
00:41:43,512 --> 00:41:43,872
Right.

602
00:41:43,872 --> 00:41:43,952
Right.

603
00:41:43,952 --> 00:41:50,812
Right, right. That makes a lot of sense. I mean, when you phrase it that way, you're John Arnold.

604
00:41:51,572 --> 00:42:00,312
Sounds like he might be onto something. Simply put, we had started, we just started something

605
00:42:00,312 --> 00:42:05,512
that's called RMB, but it's really QA. Basically, the Fed is going out and buying

606
00:42:05,512 --> 00:42:10,552
three-year treasuries instead of selling 10-year treasuries like it should.

607
00:42:11,312 --> 00:42:15,432
And so now we have a little bit of this yield curve control concept of QE coming.

608
00:42:15,592 --> 00:42:18,252
Maybe Walsh is going to kill that at lower rates.

609
00:42:18,352 --> 00:42:20,332
Maybe the market is telling him that's a bad idea.

610
00:42:21,052 --> 00:42:23,172
So I think that's actually a good point.

611
00:42:23,592 --> 00:42:25,572
It's not so much that Walsh is a hawk.

612
00:42:25,772 --> 00:42:35,752
It's so much that he wants to stop the QE at lower rates, which might be an error, at least to how the market is looking at it.

613
00:42:35,752 --> 00:42:40,632
But you're saying that he could do a different type of QE or a different manifestation of QE?

614
00:42:40,732 --> 00:42:41,672
What does Sean say?

615
00:42:42,472 --> 00:42:48,972
You just do QE via another means, which is you go through the commercial banking system and basically set up like shell QE.

616
00:42:48,972 --> 00:42:59,612
And you change the reserve requirements for treasuries and you highly encourage the commercial banking system to issue credit to the industrial policy.

617
00:43:01,912 --> 00:43:03,232
Right, right.

618
00:43:03,232 --> 00:43:08,132
lower reserve requirements, let them lever up, give them a free toaster,

619
00:43:08,432 --> 00:43:09,412
tell them to go for it.

620
00:43:09,752 --> 00:43:11,192
We'll be here when things blow up.

621
00:43:11,392 --> 00:43:11,772
That's right.

622
00:43:12,212 --> 00:43:12,752
That makes sense.

623
00:43:14,132 --> 00:43:15,112
That might be what we're looking at.

624
00:43:15,772 --> 00:43:23,392
So what do you think the next six months looks like in terms of how all this shakes out?

625
00:43:23,392 --> 00:43:24,232
What are you looking for?

626
00:43:24,412 --> 00:43:29,472
What are the big dominoes to fall or headlines you're looking for in the geopolitical sense?

627
00:43:29,472 --> 00:43:39,552
Well, starting with metals, assuming there's no geopolitical news, I would say I think metals need to go sideways.

628
00:43:40,072 --> 00:43:45,232
I'd like to see them go sideways for three months as opposed to dive or re-rally.

629
00:43:46,212 --> 00:43:50,592
I mean, believe me, I want it to re-rally, but I don't want it to do anything right now.

630
00:43:50,632 --> 00:43:54,312
I want it to just kind of figure itself out and let the fundamentals reassert themselves.

631
00:43:54,872 --> 00:43:58,392
But geopolitically, it's actually pretty digital for me geopolitically.

632
00:43:58,392 --> 00:44:08,072
It's, you know, if you read Michael Hartnett, the CIO at Bank of America, he's been pretty good with this lately.

633
00:44:08,432 --> 00:44:17,152
And he's of the opinion that Trump domestic policies must mirror what he's dealing with overseas.

634
00:44:17,812 --> 00:44:24,952
So because of his overseas difficulties, he's essentially adopted Nixon's model.

635
00:44:25,672 --> 00:44:28,612
It doesn't look like Nixon's model, but it is.

636
00:44:29,212 --> 00:44:34,172
The first thing is Nixon, Richard Nixon, spent a lot of money domestically.

637
00:44:34,492 --> 00:44:35,572
And that's what Trump is doing.

638
00:44:35,972 --> 00:44:36,492
He did that.

639
00:44:37,112 --> 00:44:38,972
Nixon was basically a liberal Republican.

640
00:44:40,112 --> 00:44:42,972
Then what Nixon did was he put in price caps.

641
00:44:43,372 --> 00:44:45,132
Now, Trump hasn't put in price caps.

642
00:44:45,732 --> 00:44:47,432
He's not going around saying he can't raise prices.

643
00:44:47,892 --> 00:44:50,392
He's going around to each industry saying he can't raise prices.

644
00:44:51,492 --> 00:44:53,172
Lower your prices to the drug industry.

645
00:44:53,692 --> 00:44:55,172
Lower your prices to the utilities.

646
00:44:55,612 --> 00:45:00,852
He's going around industry by industry, and in a populist sort of way, getting prices controlled.

647
00:45:01,412 --> 00:45:02,212
Trying to, anyway.

648
00:45:03,772 --> 00:45:08,532
And the third way is, well, Nixon was constantly trying to get rates lowered.

649
00:45:08,952 --> 00:45:11,412
So he's Nixon, as far as I'm concerned.

650
00:45:11,592 --> 00:45:12,912
Good or bad, he's Nixon.

651
00:45:12,912 --> 00:45:23,752
Now, the problem with this is for Trump to do this, he's trying to raise money with tariffs.

652
00:45:24,372 --> 00:45:29,052
And I think he's going to run into a brick wall, and he's going to realize that as long as tariffs

653
00:45:29,052 --> 00:45:36,952
are in play, and he can't get rates lower, or at least with QE, he's going to hurt the economy at

654
00:45:36,952 --> 00:45:43,332
some point. And so I think he's going to have to walk back the tariffs again, taco, if you will.

655
00:45:43,972 --> 00:45:50,612
And he's going to have to, he's going to cave on tariffs. That's my opinion. That's my opinion.

656
00:45:50,892 --> 00:45:56,192
Behaviorally, he's going to cave or compromise on tariffs. And so that's my geopolitical comment.

657
00:45:56,692 --> 00:46:03,252
And that will be done to rescue the domestic popularity. Now, what can save him is if we do

658
00:46:03,252 --> 00:46:07,892
actually get peace in the Middle East, but we do get peace in Ukraine. So I'm looking at it that

659
00:46:07,892 --> 00:46:14,612
way. I'm looking at he has something he has to do that's not going to be good for the market,

660
00:46:14,832 --> 00:46:19,252
but bad for him. He needs something good for him that's also good for the market.

661
00:46:19,952 --> 00:46:28,052
So my position is the next six months, I'd like to see the markets go nowhere. And I think the Fed

662
00:46:28,052 --> 00:46:32,212
would like to see the markets go nowhere as well, sideways, just transition to something different.

663
00:46:32,212 --> 00:46:39,632
and let's see what the midterms bring so we can see if Trump is a lame duck.

664
00:46:39,672 --> 00:46:42,432
He's a lame duck, but so we can see if he has influence anymore.

665
00:46:43,072 --> 00:46:47,572
But going into the midterms, do not be surprised if we see a tariff compromise

666
00:46:47,572 --> 00:46:54,292
because it'll pop the markets and get him his votes back for his midterm electorate.

667
00:46:54,872 --> 00:46:56,372
So that's where I'm geopolitically.

668
00:46:56,812 --> 00:46:57,832
I think there's going to be a war.

669
00:46:57,832 --> 00:47:03,552
I think the big problem coming on the horizon is us getting China out of Latin America,

670
00:47:04,152 --> 00:47:06,572
believe it or not, makes Taiwan a bigger risk.

671
00:47:06,932 --> 00:47:12,772
The moment that Trump said Monroe Doctrine, China put out a paper.

672
00:47:13,552 --> 00:47:18,352
And the paper said, it used to say, we like Latin America, we like Latin America,

673
00:47:18,452 --> 00:47:21,732
we like Latin America, and we also own Taiwan.

674
00:47:22,072 --> 00:47:23,492
That's their paper, right?

675
00:47:23,492 --> 00:47:29,572
But this new paper that came out when Trump made his point was Taiwan is ours.

676
00:47:30,272 --> 00:47:31,512
We love Latin America.

677
00:47:32,512 --> 00:47:33,392
Taiwan is ours.

678
00:47:33,692 --> 00:47:37,252
And so the rhetoric changed and the order changed.

679
00:47:37,252 --> 00:47:41,432
So what they're saying is, you know, it's kind of almost like a meme now.

680
00:47:41,552 --> 00:47:46,752
But what they're saying is if you can go in and you can take Maduro out, we'll do it in Taiwan.

681
00:47:46,952 --> 00:47:47,912
So that's the wild card.

682
00:47:47,912 --> 00:47:57,572
The wild card is if Trump doesn't give in on tariffs and China struggles a little bit, maybe they do a little bit of their own domestic flexing to look powerful.

683
00:47:57,912 --> 00:48:01,172
So my wild card is my black swan is Taiwan.

684
00:48:02,032 --> 00:48:04,472
My done deal is tariffs easing.

685
00:48:04,792 --> 00:48:10,152
And my hope for the economy is a war ending over the next six months.

686
00:48:10,292 --> 00:48:16,392
I mean, not very exciting to talk about today, but I think we're all kind of tired from everything that's going on.

687
00:48:16,592 --> 00:48:16,992
Exhaustive.

688
00:48:16,992 --> 00:48:18,792
Well, that's – I certainly am.

689
00:48:19,092 --> 00:48:23,712
But as you're explaining that, and obviously the last two days,

690
00:48:23,992 --> 00:48:29,292
everybody has been hyper-focused on markets, on gold and silver particularly.

691
00:48:29,412 --> 00:48:32,432
But if you just look at the last three weeks, you have the ice riots in Minneapolis,

692
00:48:33,552 --> 00:48:37,212
this Claudebot thing hitting the market, everybody going crazy over the AI,

693
00:48:38,832 --> 00:48:40,932
obviously Venezuela from a few weeks ago.

694
00:48:41,232 --> 00:48:42,012
Oh, Claudebot, yeah.

695
00:48:42,392 --> 00:48:44,052
Nobody is talking about it in my neck of the woods.

696
00:48:44,452 --> 00:48:45,012
But you're right.

697
00:48:45,172 --> 00:48:58,658
That a big deal Yeah It a big deal But it just like this whipsawing of narratives Like I woke up today i like what are people saying about ice in minneapolis and nobody talking about it online you have the epstein files getting released everybody focused on those right now um

698
00:48:58,658 --> 00:49:04,598
i know i feel like i'm getting chewed up by the news yeah well it's like that's why i like

699
00:49:04,598 --> 00:49:10,758
talking to people like you because you focus on the long-term signal and you're diving into uh

700
00:49:10,758 --> 00:49:16,198
research and literature that is relatively under the radar that people aren't focusing on,

701
00:49:16,238 --> 00:49:19,378
but you get these signals and bringing it back to China, Taiwan.

702
00:49:20,138 --> 00:49:22,698
I think Venezuela was a very bold move.

703
00:49:23,418 --> 00:49:26,418
As an American, I think it actually makes sense to make that move.

704
00:49:26,418 --> 00:49:30,398
But to your point, it was humiliating for the Chinese.

705
00:49:30,478 --> 00:49:31,738
The Chinese had a delegation there.

706
00:49:31,998 --> 00:49:33,178
That day got no warning.

707
00:49:33,478 --> 00:49:34,618
Yeah, but...

708
00:49:34,618 --> 00:49:37,518
Let me ask you a question.

709
00:49:37,518 --> 00:49:42,898
Do you think it was truly humiliating or do you think – I mean it was humiliating.

710
00:49:42,978 --> 00:49:44,298
Let's not lie about that.

711
00:49:44,318 --> 00:49:45,078
It was humiliating.

712
00:49:45,478 --> 00:49:48,598
But do you think that China knew about it and had to go along with it?

713
00:49:48,858 --> 00:49:49,338
You know what I mean?

714
00:49:49,938 --> 00:49:50,458
I don't know.

715
00:49:50,678 --> 00:49:52,518
I mean I'm assuming they didn't.

716
00:49:53,838 --> 00:49:58,418
Can you imagine just going in there and saying, oh, China's there?

717
00:49:58,758 --> 00:50:01,658
Let's do it because China's there to really stick it to them.

718
00:50:01,718 --> 00:50:03,898
I mean that's pretty embarrassing.

719
00:50:03,898 --> 00:50:07,558
You know, we just went right in there and did that with sounds weapons or whatever the hell.

720
00:50:07,698 --> 00:50:08,838
Yeah, the discombobulator.

721
00:50:10,958 --> 00:50:18,458
No, it's like you're telling a line like to do that and then to expect China not to do anything.

722
00:50:18,658 --> 00:50:20,658
That's a that's a very bold calculus.

723
00:50:20,858 --> 00:50:22,038
So maybe they won't do anything.

724
00:50:22,218 --> 00:50:26,898
Maybe China is the paper tiger that people some people have been talking about for years.

725
00:50:27,858 --> 00:50:28,178
You know.

726
00:50:29,318 --> 00:50:30,958
Maybe, maybe.

727
00:50:30,958 --> 00:50:36,098
be. I mean, look, I mean, I'm not an expert in this area, but I've talked to people that

728
00:50:36,098 --> 00:50:41,618
understand a lot more than I do. Like, you know, a land war in China is one thing. A land war in

729
00:50:41,618 --> 00:50:47,558
Asia is one thing. But an ocean war with the U.S., apparently China doesn't even really have a deep

730
00:50:47,558 --> 00:50:54,438
water port or what they call a blue water port. So that's difficult. I mean, they have the artillery,

731
00:50:54,438 --> 00:50:57,418
but they don't have the access.

732
00:50:57,658 --> 00:50:58,698
Like we have California.

733
00:50:59,838 --> 00:51:02,658
California is a deep, long water port.

734
00:51:03,338 --> 00:51:04,438
China doesn't have that.

735
00:51:05,198 --> 00:51:10,078
So they're limited in their ocean projection.

736
00:51:11,258 --> 00:51:13,118
So maybe they are the paper tiger that you're talking about.

737
00:51:13,118 --> 00:51:14,558
Paper dragon, I guess, maybe.

738
00:51:14,858 --> 00:51:15,478
Is that what they would be?

739
00:51:15,918 --> 00:51:17,438
But I mean, to your point,

740
00:51:17,618 --> 00:51:20,318
and I'm not sure if you've seen the reports of them retrofitting,

741
00:51:20,318 --> 00:51:21,818
shipping

742
00:51:21,818 --> 00:51:24,078
shipping boats

743
00:51:24,078 --> 00:51:25,918
with military equipment.

744
00:51:26,218 --> 00:51:26,518
They're like

745
00:51:26,518 --> 00:51:29,418
putting like missile systems in

746
00:51:29,418 --> 00:51:31,998
like large shipping container ships.

747
00:51:34,438 --> 00:51:35,918
They're repurposing

748
00:51:35,918 --> 00:51:38,418
like freight ships.

749
00:51:39,218 --> 00:51:40,818
Is that a sign of weakness?

750
00:51:40,818 --> 00:51:41,418
I don't know.

751
00:51:42,218 --> 00:51:42,678
I don't know.

752
00:51:44,018 --> 00:51:44,858
Sign of a

753
00:51:44,858 --> 00:51:46,058
yeah. Interesting.

754
00:51:48,798 --> 00:51:49,498
Head is wild.

755
00:51:50,318 --> 00:51:53,658
Yeah, this year started off hot, real hot.

756
00:51:54,058 --> 00:51:55,578
Like bringing it back to midterms.

757
00:51:56,458 --> 00:51:58,158
Well, we've had a good year in the last month.

758
00:51:58,618 --> 00:51:58,778
Right?

759
00:51:59,918 --> 00:52:02,938
I mean, every January has been crazy for the last four years.

760
00:52:03,338 --> 00:52:05,998
It's just, you know, in war.

761
00:52:07,438 --> 00:52:08,658
Well, then again, it is Trump.

762
00:52:09,618 --> 00:52:10,198
It is Trump.

763
00:52:10,818 --> 00:52:14,878
You know, you got to have, you got to respect Trump's chaos.

764
00:52:15,338 --> 00:52:16,418
That's what he's all about.

765
00:52:16,418 --> 00:52:24,978
And so I guess we could really end by focusing in on the monetary order side of things.

766
00:52:24,978 --> 00:52:31,378
If we're in a bit of a reprieve, metals cooling off, Bitcoin cooling off, people catching their breath.

767
00:52:31,878 --> 00:52:41,618
But I mean, based off my conversation with Josh, it seems like people are, some countries are dashing for physical on the back end.

768
00:52:41,618 --> 00:52:45,738
And obviously, the last time we talked, we talked about the gold and a warrant.

769
00:52:46,418 --> 00:52:52,018
with the Shanghai exchange and sort of that need to create that.

770
00:52:52,018 --> 00:52:54,718
Oh, yeah, the gold on what? You want to talk about that again?

771
00:52:54,878 --> 00:52:56,058
It seems like things have progressed.

772
00:52:58,378 --> 00:53:03,498
That's, yeah, that's actually, you know what? Yeah, we should talk about that.

773
00:53:04,458 --> 00:53:11,838
China, I mean, last time we talked, China was taking the gold in their vaults and putting it aside on warrants.

774
00:53:11,958 --> 00:53:13,638
And nobody knows on warrants for what.

775
00:53:13,638 --> 00:53:21,058
But since then, since we talked last time about this, we went into the whole big thing that was picked up by that YouTuber.

776
00:53:21,798 --> 00:53:23,578
So thank you for that exposure, by the way.

777
00:53:25,318 --> 00:53:41,018
Since that has happened, Marty, since that has happened, Hong Kong has announced that they're doing a joint venture with Shanghai to produce a cross-collateral product.

778
00:53:41,638 --> 00:53:48,078
So your gold in Shanghai can be used as collateral in Hong Kong with all the risks involved with that.

779
00:53:48,538 --> 00:53:51,338
And so it's kind of like the vaults.

780
00:53:51,838 --> 00:53:52,818
Look, we talked about this.

781
00:53:52,878 --> 00:53:55,878
We told this Fred Flintstone blockchain.

782
00:53:56,158 --> 00:53:57,098
That's what we called it.

783
00:53:57,918 --> 00:53:59,318
Is that what we called it, I think?

784
00:54:01,418 --> 00:54:02,618
It's Hong Kong.

785
00:54:02,818 --> 00:54:03,378
It's Shanghai.

786
00:54:03,758 --> 00:54:04,658
It's Saudi Arabia.

787
00:54:04,898 --> 00:54:06,358
And it's maybe two or three other places.

788
00:54:06,958 --> 00:54:08,338
And your gold is there.

789
00:54:08,438 --> 00:54:09,218
Your gold is there.

790
00:54:09,298 --> 00:54:10,098
My gold is there.

791
00:54:10,098 --> 00:54:21,238
And so they're connecting these with this blockchain type of product, whether it be, I think it's Cardano that they're leaning towards right now.

792
00:54:22,378 --> 00:54:24,438
Yeah, they're leaning towards Cardano.

793
00:54:24,918 --> 00:54:27,218
And then they're creating this basket called the unit.

794
00:54:27,398 --> 00:54:30,478
And the unit basically is a basket of gold plus currencies.

795
00:54:31,178 --> 00:54:35,758
And so you're over in Saudi Arabia and I'm over in India.

796
00:54:35,978 --> 00:54:38,078
And I have a vault with my gold in it.

797
00:54:38,078 --> 00:54:39,458
You have a vault with your gold in it.

798
00:54:39,458 --> 00:54:43,958
And we have this token that goes back and forth that says the gold's there, the gold's there, and so we trade.

799
00:54:44,838 --> 00:54:52,518
Well, the reason that that's not a fallacy, not just a fantasy anymore, is because Hong Kong said they're connecting with Shanghai.

800
00:54:53,078 --> 00:54:59,758
Now, it may seem like they should obviously connect because they're both Chinese, but the reality of it is Hong Kong's a different jurisdiction.

801
00:54:59,758 --> 00:55:06,938
And so Shanghai is purely China, and Hong Kong is a gateway to the Western world.

802
00:55:07,598 --> 00:55:10,798
So you've got, this is coming from reliable sources, you know.

803
00:55:11,398 --> 00:55:19,918
I've been working on this for about the last six months, and Eric Young, King Kong on Twitter, or X, I should say, he provides his own perspective.

804
00:55:19,918 --> 00:55:32,278
And that is gold is going to be used as collateral for financing developing nations' economies.

805
00:55:33,258 --> 00:55:37,618
So right now, the US will say, you have a treasury, I'll give you money against it.

806
00:55:38,538 --> 00:55:40,578
China is saying, you don't need a treasury, you can do it with gold.

807
00:55:41,138 --> 00:55:46,678
And so the gold in China and the gold in Hong Kong are going to be the first node that operates.

808
00:55:46,678 --> 00:55:53,058
So this warrants in China thing, this is, I mean, I don't want to get too bubbly about it.

809
00:55:53,078 --> 00:55:53,798
This is happening.

810
00:55:54,418 --> 00:56:01,398
The dollar is going to be directly competed with by gold as a collateral, not as a currency.

811
00:56:01,398 --> 00:56:03,118
It's not a currency.

812
00:56:03,358 --> 00:56:04,478
It's a collateral asset.

813
00:56:04,858 --> 00:56:05,458
It's gold.

814
00:56:05,718 --> 00:56:06,538
It's a pet rock.

815
00:56:06,738 --> 00:56:07,478
It sits there.

816
00:56:07,658 --> 00:56:08,578
It doesn't do anything.

817
00:56:08,758 --> 00:56:08,958
Great.

818
00:56:09,078 --> 00:56:10,118
We know what it is today.

819
00:56:10,338 --> 00:56:11,518
We know what it is tomorrow.

820
00:56:11,798 --> 00:56:17,078
They're not ready for immutable ledgers.

821
00:56:17,838 --> 00:56:19,518
They need to be involved in it.

822
00:56:19,758 --> 00:56:23,878
They're ready for, oh, yeah, I think that's worth something.

823
00:56:24,298 --> 00:56:25,658
You think that's worth something.

824
00:56:26,058 --> 00:56:29,678
We know it's worth more than a treasury because the U.S. can't be trusted.

825
00:56:29,898 --> 00:56:30,898
Let's use it.

826
00:56:31,398 --> 00:56:32,378
Let's use silver too.

827
00:56:32,458 --> 00:56:32,958
No, no, no, no.

828
00:56:33,458 --> 00:56:34,738
Stay with gold, all right?

829
00:56:34,998 --> 00:56:35,938
Nobody uses it.

830
00:56:36,238 --> 00:56:36,798
It's useless.

831
00:56:37,018 --> 00:56:37,518
It's pretty.

832
00:56:37,978 --> 00:56:40,138
And so my gold is in my vault.

833
00:56:40,518 --> 00:56:41,598
Your gold is in your vault.

834
00:56:41,798 --> 00:56:43,698
We have a token that says that my gold's here.

835
00:56:44,178 --> 00:56:45,638
You have a token that says your gold's there.

836
00:56:45,918 --> 00:56:47,178
I buy some wheat from you.

837
00:56:47,358 --> 00:56:48,738
You buy some oil from me.

838
00:56:48,738 --> 00:56:50,118
We settle the trade in gold.

839
00:56:50,258 --> 00:56:52,318
And that's what the Hong Kong Shanghai is going to be.

840
00:56:53,038 --> 00:56:56,058
It's a big, big, big fucking deal, Marty.

841
00:56:56,198 --> 00:56:58,138
And like, it's going to happen soon.

842
00:56:58,198 --> 00:57:00,558
And maybe that's why everybody's freaking out about metals right now.

843
00:57:01,098 --> 00:57:02,298
Maybe you've got to get your collateral.

844
00:57:02,718 --> 00:57:05,458
You know, like if Bitcoin were collateral, they'd be like, I need it tomorrow.

845
00:57:05,758 --> 00:57:09,838
And Bitcoin will eventually be collateral, you know, but that's the point.

846
00:57:09,938 --> 00:57:14,918
Everyone, I mean, I know you don't need to focus on Bitcoin, but I really think it's

847
00:57:14,918 --> 00:57:17,138
important to juxtapose Bitcoin with gold here.

848
00:57:17,998 --> 00:57:23,678
If you think central banks are going to say, let's use Bitcoin now, they're not going to

849
00:57:23,678 --> 00:57:24,058
say it.

850
00:57:24,078 --> 00:57:24,798
They all have gold.

851
00:57:24,878 --> 00:57:25,758
They're not going to throw it out.

852
00:57:26,258 --> 00:57:27,398
They're going to use what they have.

853
00:57:27,458 --> 00:57:29,378
And then they're going to say, wait a minute, I have too much gold.

854
00:57:29,878 --> 00:57:30,978
Maybe I should buy some Bitcoin.

855
00:57:30,978 --> 00:57:36,318
So that's the evolution for immutable ledgers.

856
00:57:36,938 --> 00:57:39,818
It's like once you realize that, it's just a brick.

857
00:57:40,078 --> 00:57:40,878
You don't need a brick.

858
00:57:41,138 --> 00:57:42,178
You can just use a ledger.

859
00:57:42,618 --> 00:57:51,878
So anyway, gold is going to be the bridge off of treasuries and onto a more appropriate,

860
00:57:52,078 --> 00:57:52,638
perfect money.

861
00:57:53,238 --> 00:57:54,978
Whether it's Bitcoin or something else, I don't know.

862
00:57:55,098 --> 00:57:56,958
But it's gold's turn.

863
00:57:57,078 --> 00:57:57,698
It's gold's turn.

864
00:57:57,898 --> 00:57:58,238
That's it.

865
00:57:58,238 --> 00:58:06,318
Well, it's interesting. You mentioned this node topography between China and Hong Kong and the fact they're starting this.

866
00:58:06,898 --> 00:58:13,498
I'm not sure if you caught up, but Tether has launched a gold-backed digital currency as well, Tether Gold.

867
00:58:15,018 --> 00:58:17,178
And so you have this sort of east-west-west.

868
00:58:17,298 --> 00:58:19,238
They own as much as like a central bank now.

869
00:58:19,238 --> 00:58:24,458
Oh, yeah. They own something like 14 tons or something like that.

870
00:58:26,358 --> 00:58:27,238
140 tons.

871
00:58:27,818 --> 00:58:28,658
140 tons.

872
00:58:28,778 --> 00:58:29,318
Oh, yeah.

873
00:58:29,778 --> 00:58:29,938
Yeah.

874
00:58:30,258 --> 00:58:31,438
I did it right up on it.

875
00:58:31,658 --> 00:58:32,198
That's interesting.

876
00:58:32,358 --> 00:58:35,518
I completely spaced on that, but that's really important.

877
00:58:35,518 --> 00:58:37,778
Now, this is a different product.

878
00:58:38,498 --> 00:58:41,678
I mean, not different product, but I want to get your thoughts on that.

879
00:58:41,818 --> 00:58:44,678
I'm thinking that I got from a reliable source.

880
00:58:44,998 --> 00:58:48,558
Not only Tether is doing it, but Tether's major competitors are doing it.

881
00:58:48,618 --> 00:58:49,098
Two of them are.

882
00:58:49,678 --> 00:58:52,538
And in Saudi Arabia, someone's doing it with silver.

883
00:58:52,918 --> 00:58:53,578
I don't know.

884
00:58:53,778 --> 00:58:54,378
Not Saudi Arabia.

885
00:58:55,318 --> 00:58:55,758
Dubai.

886
00:58:55,938 --> 00:58:56,678
I'm like, that makes sense.

887
00:58:56,678 --> 00:59:00,758
Dubai, blockchain, crypto, tax-free haven.

888
00:59:01,118 --> 00:59:04,258
If you're going to make a product, you want to make it in Dubai.

889
00:59:04,418 --> 00:59:05,678
Dubai is where you want to be.

890
00:59:06,258 --> 00:59:13,698
And so I think if you look at it from the normies or normal people that are looking at the United States,

891
00:59:13,778 --> 00:59:15,578
you've got Trump, he's a gold bug, right?

892
00:59:15,998 --> 00:59:20,198
You're going, well, in February, IRAs can now have gold in them.

893
00:59:21,478 --> 00:59:24,678
And we do need to buy more gold because China's using it.

894
00:59:24,678 --> 00:59:28,118
How can we get more gold in the country without distracting from the dollar?

895
00:59:28,758 --> 00:59:30,378
Well, first, let's get Bitcoin under control.

896
00:59:30,618 --> 00:59:31,158
We got that?

897
00:59:31,338 --> 00:59:32,338
Okay, we got that under control.

898
00:59:32,638 --> 00:59:34,998
Now let's start buying gold through Tether.

899
00:59:35,718 --> 00:59:41,778
I mean, I'm not outright saying it, but if I were Tether, and isn't the CEO of Tether

900
00:59:41,778 --> 00:59:42,818
a former government official?

901
00:59:43,058 --> 00:59:44,858
Of Tether USA, Bo Hines, yes.

902
00:59:44,898 --> 00:59:48,158
He was working under David Sachs, as the cryptos are.

903
00:59:50,498 --> 00:59:50,938
Yeah.

904
00:59:50,938 --> 01:00:00,158
So, I mean, Tether buys gold, whether it's for the United States or not, they're going to create a product.

905
01:00:00,558 --> 01:00:09,518
And when the United States says, OK, you can put gold in your 401k and all the boomers and Generation X people like myself are like, OK, I'll do that.

906
01:00:09,978 --> 01:00:13,558
Well, it's like, well, here's the stablecoin Tether to give you.

907
01:00:13,678 --> 01:00:17,338
It's kind of like it's new, it's hip, but it's still gold.

908
01:00:17,338 --> 01:00:23,798
It's, you know, the whole world is going to start using gold somehow because they're not happy with treasuries anymore.

909
01:00:24,238 --> 01:00:26,618
And eventually they'll use something else.

910
01:00:26,738 --> 01:00:27,598
But right now it's gold.

911
01:00:27,918 --> 01:00:28,698
That's a good point.

912
01:00:28,778 --> 01:00:29,398
I forgot all about it.

913
01:00:29,418 --> 01:00:41,358
Well, yeah, as you were describing the China-Hong Kong gold relationship, it just made me think like, huh, it is interesting that Tether launched Tether Gold in last year and they've accumulated so much.

914
01:00:41,358 --> 01:00:46,138
Like, is that like some, not that I'm a big believer in 3D or 4D chess.

915
01:00:47,338 --> 01:00:59,778
Behind the scenes, which does make you a conspiratorial mind, and you wonder, did they see all this gold at the Shanghai Exchange getting called a warrant and say, all right, we need to counterposition this.

916
01:00:59,918 --> 01:01:02,198
So Tether, we need you to launch this as well.

917
01:01:02,198 --> 01:01:08,718
Right. Well, you know, three years ago, HSBC created a product.

918
01:01:09,578 --> 01:01:17,818
And this ties into Tether. HSBC created a product three years ago that would be a gold backed stablecoin.

919
01:01:18,158 --> 01:01:24,378
Now, they're trying to launch it for retail in Asia, you know, Thailand, Indonesia, those areas around there.

920
01:01:24,418 --> 01:01:28,858
And I don't know that it's caught on yet, but Tether just hired HSBC's best traders.

921
01:01:30,078 --> 01:01:31,758
Duh. It's all happening.

922
01:01:32,198 --> 01:01:33,858
You're right. That's a good point.

923
01:01:35,358 --> 01:01:37,198
Look at us solving the problems.

924
01:01:37,478 --> 01:01:37,738
We got it.

925
01:01:38,398 --> 01:01:40,038
So Tether's going to launch a product.

926
01:01:40,578 --> 01:01:41,878
We got a good education, you know.

927
01:01:42,038 --> 01:01:44,518
We were able to think clearly about this stuff.

928
01:01:45,598 --> 01:01:48,058
Yeah, we went to a pretty decent high school.

929
01:01:48,298 --> 01:01:49,138
I know that, right?

930
01:01:51,178 --> 01:01:52,578
Wait, where'd you go to university?

931
01:01:52,858 --> 01:01:54,058
DePaul University in Chicago.

932
01:01:56,778 --> 01:01:58,078
Oh, okay.

933
01:01:58,158 --> 01:01:59,318
I went to St. Joe's University.

934
01:01:59,438 --> 01:01:59,938
You're a trader.

935
01:01:59,938 --> 01:02:04,698
but you went to de paul so that's pretty good were you when you were telling that arnold story

936
01:02:04,698 --> 01:02:11,798
where you'd see bot or um were you trading new york no i was i was in new york uh natural gas

937
01:02:11,798 --> 01:02:16,838
options are new york exchange so i was i'm a new york floor guy chicago floor guys are actually

938
01:02:16,838 --> 01:02:21,818
better trader than new york floor guys but uh we don't we don't we don't tell them that but yeah

939
01:02:21,818 --> 01:02:23,638
Yeah, I worked at a Manitutra.

940
01:02:24,058 --> 01:02:25,338
Were you in Chicago doing that too?

941
01:02:26,058 --> 01:02:30,858
I was in Chicago like 2009 to 2014.

942
01:02:31,418 --> 01:02:34,298
But I worked at a Manitutra's fund, which was a bunch of ex-CBOT guys,

943
01:02:34,458 --> 01:02:37,598
and they had incredible war stories from the floor.

944
01:02:40,038 --> 01:02:41,558
Oh, yeah, there's all kinds of good stories.

945
01:02:42,018 --> 01:02:46,058
Chicago is a very bizarre place for the trading on the floor.

946
01:02:46,518 --> 01:02:51,218
New York is smaller in terms of trading, and there's more colorful stories.

947
01:02:51,218 --> 01:03:00,538
But Chicago, if you look at the trading pit from the observation deck, it was like an ocean.

948
01:03:01,578 --> 01:03:04,978
It was – and every corner of it was – it was like Where's Waldo?

949
01:03:05,418 --> 01:03:06,498
Really fascinating stuff.

950
01:03:07,038 --> 01:03:07,218
Anyway.

951
01:03:08,518 --> 01:03:13,278
It was – I was – I mean, by the time I had gotten into the industry, it was all servers,

952
01:03:13,478 --> 01:03:18,938
and there was a bunch of nostalgia for the old days of screaming on the floor and throwing the signs.

953
01:03:19,838 --> 01:03:20,038
Yep.

954
01:03:20,038 --> 01:03:20,258
Yep.

955
01:03:21,218 --> 01:03:24,538
Yeah. Yeah. I hear you.

956
01:03:24,898 --> 01:03:29,798
Well, Vince, appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's a good update.

957
01:03:30,178 --> 01:03:38,718
Things are cooling off. It's good to recalibrate, figure out where where things are, where they may go and catch your breath every once in a while.

958
01:03:38,898 --> 01:03:47,518
It's funny. It's funny because, you know, here we are being relatively mellow and I'm going, yeah, but you know what?

959
01:03:47,518 --> 01:03:48,858
Tomorrow it's probably going to shit.

960
01:03:49,218 --> 01:03:50,038
Something's going to shit.

961
01:03:50,738 --> 01:03:51,878
Something's going to hit the fan.

962
01:03:52,278 --> 01:03:54,778
And you and I will be like, no break for us now.

963
01:03:54,938 --> 01:03:56,958
But anyway, Beach Digging Ditches.

964
01:03:57,118 --> 01:03:57,938
Thanks for having me.

965
01:03:57,958 --> 01:03:58,298
Thank you, Vince.

966
01:03:58,938 --> 01:04:01,678
Go join the Gold Fix, Substack Freaks.

967
01:04:02,218 --> 01:04:02,858
It's a great read.

968
01:04:04,478 --> 01:04:05,158
Peace and love.

969
01:04:05,438 --> 01:04:05,598
Okay.

970
01:04:06,018 --> 01:04:08,138
Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.

971
01:04:08,638 --> 01:04:12,198
If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode.

972
01:04:12,618 --> 01:04:16,558
If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.

973
01:04:16,558 --> 01:04:30,858
We're looking to get the word out there. Also, wherever you're listening, whether that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify, make sure you like and subscribe to the show. And if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms, that goes a long way.

974
01:04:30,858 --> 01:04:38,918
Last but not least, if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad-free, make sure you download the Fountain podcasting app.

975
01:04:39,438 --> 01:04:41,678
You can go to fountain.fm to find that.

976
01:04:42,438 --> 01:04:46,178
$5 a month gets you every episode a day early, ad-free.

977
01:04:46,978 --> 01:04:47,758
Helps the show.

978
01:04:48,158 --> 01:04:49,258
Gives you incredible value.

979
01:04:50,218 --> 01:04:53,498
So please consider subscribing via Fountain as well.

980
01:04:54,078 --> 01:04:54,978
Thank you for your time.

981
01:04:55,458 --> 01:04:56,378
And until next time.

982
01:04:56,998 --> 01:04:57,198
Okay.

983
01:05:00,858 --> 01:05:30,838
Thank you.