1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,920
You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

2
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,040
We talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

3
00:00:13,500 --> 00:00:15,680
All the central banks going nuts.

4
00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:17,880
So it's all acting like safe haven.

5
00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:25,260
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

6
00:00:25,340 --> 00:00:28,480
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

7
00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,380
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

8
00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,240
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

9
00:00:36,300 --> 00:00:44,260
Matthew Muzintius, years 2026, year seven of us doing a quarterly monetary base update.

10
00:00:44,820 --> 00:00:45,840
Welcome to year seven, sir.

11
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:47,340
Thank you.

12
00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:48,540
Thank you, Marty.

13
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:56,540
It's year eight for me on podcasting.

14
00:00:56,540 --> 00:00:57,880
No, actually, year nine, actually.

15
00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:03,900
yeah close to you so that's year nine right

16
00:01:03,900 --> 00:01:12,480
very exciting congrats to you and that's you as well happy new year hope all is well

17
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:19,020
it's a crazy world these days lots to talk about but i figured we can start out with some nice

18
00:01:19,020 --> 00:01:25,840
charts on uh what's happening in the gold market silver market it's grabbing people's attention

19
00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,820
these days. The gold bugs were very angry

20
00:01:29,820 --> 00:01:32,920
for seven, eight years as Bitcoin was tearing.

21
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,300
They were screaming suppression.

22
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,020
The crypto bros were taking all of their gains,

23
00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,280
they said. But now,

24
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,760
I don't know. Are your Bitcoin friends

25
00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,960
in the States crying or are people managing?

26
00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:58,120
my bitcoin friends are managing because we we know how to uh

27
00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:05,000
reinforce each other say hey it's a long-term game absolutely a little a little

28
00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:10,360
a little consolidation of price is nothing we haven't seen before but there are people freaking

29
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:16,600
out there are people there's depression in the bitcoin price now gold and silver have taken the

30
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:22,240
wind out of the sails. There's no bullish catalysts on the horizon. We are doomed. It's what many

31
00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:27,180
people think. The market manipulators are now coming out of the gold mines and the silver mines.

32
00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:34,940
Here's an interesting little bird's eye view. I like to keep a big picture, let people relax.

33
00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:40,580
This is the trailing 12-month mining revenue of the Bitcoin network.

34
00:02:40,580 --> 00:03:00,220
And a couple of things I'll say actually just right off the bat here is this is fairly bullish if you think that the cycle is possibly not over or, you know, the details of the four-year cycle we can get into.

35
00:03:00,220 --> 00:03:09,520
But basically, you know, if whatever the length of the cycle is, Bitcoin generally has multiples higher revenue.

36
00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:14,480
Okay, so here's the 2013 top, nearly had a billion dollars in miner revenue.

37
00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:21,600
Okay, this is just taking the trailing 365 days of the issuance, and then fees, which

38
00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,820
are very, very small proportion of that still to this day.

39
00:03:25,140 --> 00:03:33,300
Then you go six, seven, eight X higher here in 2018 on a trailing 12 month basis, right?

40
00:03:33,380 --> 00:03:37,840
Which includes all of 2017 gains, tops out at about $7 billion.

41
00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:44,940
dollars. There's a slow moving chart, right? It's a yearly trailing 12. Then we go to 2021,

42
00:03:45,940 --> 00:03:53,920
we're at about $17 billion for the Bitcoin mining revenue, total revenue for Bitcoin miners.

43
00:03:55,300 --> 00:04:02,480
And then, you know, we've had this long build now for three years with the ETFs and everything else

44
00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:10,800
from, well, let's say two full years, 2024, 2025.

45
00:04:12,340 --> 00:04:15,020
And even though, as most people know,

46
00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:16,340
November, December was supposed to be

47
00:04:16,340 --> 00:04:18,340
the four-year cycle again,

48
00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,300
we're still at $17 billion

49
00:04:21,300 --> 00:04:23,780
because of the halvings, right?

50
00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:25,660
The halvings play a big part here.

51
00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,540
But I would say this is actually fairly bullish.

52
00:04:31,540 --> 00:04:36,540
because, I mean, it's possible that, you know,

53
00:04:36,580 --> 00:04:40,340
however long the cycle lasts or whatever,

54
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:44,040
that this is sort of topping and we go down.

55
00:04:44,500 --> 00:04:47,860
But if you think about the cyclicality of Bitcoin in the past,

56
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,640
it's possible that this will keep going and we change.

57
00:04:52,740 --> 00:04:54,040
You know, maybe we're closer to the power law,

58
00:04:54,180 --> 00:04:55,340
which we can talk about.

59
00:04:55,980 --> 00:04:57,580
We didn't have a big boom,

60
00:04:57,700 --> 00:05:00,320
so maybe we won't have that big of a bust to use that word.

61
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:04,540
But anyway, I think that this is actually fairly bullish, considering that.

62
00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,840
Interesting technical difficulties, Matthew's back.

63
00:05:07,340 --> 00:05:16,900
Okay, so yeah, so to the extent that we say that there are cycles and booms and busts with Bitcoin,

64
00:05:17,900 --> 00:05:24,000
I find it very interesting that this boom, which has lasted now, I mean, over three years, right?

65
00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,880
Or over two full years, for sure.

66
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,080
is, you know, our annual mining revenue,

67
00:05:35,740 --> 00:05:38,020
even including the last halving

68
00:05:38,020 --> 00:05:39,360
or including the last halving

69
00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,040
is about the same as it was

70
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:47,380
after the 2021 peak.

71
00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,240
So I'd actually say this is fairly bullish for Bitcoin,

72
00:05:51,420 --> 00:05:55,260
but time will tell, you know, how this cycle plays out.

73
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,760
We could talk about that, whether, you know,

74
00:05:58,280 --> 00:05:59,440
since we didn't have a huge boom,

75
00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:04,280
We won't have a big bust. We could talk about that in a second. But anyway, this is Bitcoin mining revenue.

76
00:06:04,700 --> 00:06:09,320
All right. So it's 17 billion dollars at the moment. Trailing 12 months.

77
00:06:09,900 --> 00:06:15,740
Now, our silver friends are really loving life. I'll show you the price in a second.

78
00:06:15,840 --> 00:06:22,280
But let's just look at the silver that comes out of the ground, which is 800 to 900 million ounces a year.

79
00:06:22,500 --> 00:06:24,900
Let's put that in dollar terms trailing 12 months.

80
00:06:24,900 --> 00:06:34,520
it's always actually uh competed with bitcoin um

81
00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:41,440
remember a lot of silver we sort of discount because it's used in industry

82
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:48,100
and bitcoin if you discount that silver bitcoin uh used to be more valuable than silver

83
00:06:48,100 --> 00:06:53,760
quite a long time ago actually like four years ago but now it's smaller again so

84
00:06:53,760 --> 00:07:02,820
So the silver bugs are a loving life because the mining industry as a whole is about double Bitcoins, $34 billion at the moment.

85
00:07:04,020 --> 00:07:10,720
They got $27 billion back in 2011 when price went to its prior all-time high of $56 or whatever it was.

86
00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:13,120
All right, now let's look at gold.

87
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,880
Dwarfing Bitcoin and silver.

88
00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,520
All right, I mean, this is an all-time high.

89
00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:30,480
it was quite a christmas for the gold bugs 400 billion dollars over the course of a year for

90
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,840
the gold bugs i was reading or just saw i actually didn't read it and can't be bothered with this

91
00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:43,040
stuff but you know at high prices gold mines that were completely unprofitable at lower prices all

92
00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:48,880
of a sudden become profitable or even theoretically profitable i was seeing a headline that one of the

93
00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:57,520
the main gold bugs in Canada, Eric Sprott, had some share in some mine that went up by billions

94
00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:01,940
in the last couple of months. And they haven't even started mining, right? So this is some of

95
00:08:01,940 --> 00:08:08,200
what markets do. Of course, we have some of these irrational expectations in the Bitcoin market too,

96
00:08:08,300 --> 00:08:13,760
but gold bugs are loving life for sure. So $400 billion, that's a record. And just for people that

97
00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:22,080
maybe listening or not watching the charts, in the last two years, that's doubled. And even then,

98
00:08:22,580 --> 00:08:29,060
two, three years ago, for example, February 2022, which is actually four years ago,

99
00:08:30,060 --> 00:08:37,960
was $200 billion. And that was an all-time high. So massive, massive boon, these prices for the

100
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:44,500
gold and silver markets, all-time highs. But then just to see kind of where the oil markets

101
00:08:44,500 --> 00:08:50,260
come into this, which are obviously quite an important commodity, just throw this in here,

102
00:08:51,140 --> 00:08:55,080
roughly, you're looking at trillions of dollars. Okay, sorry, again,

103
00:08:55,640 --> 00:09:02,480
little connection issues here, a lot of snow. Just looking at oil for comparison, just to,

104
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:11,660
You know, obviously a main commodity that the whole world needs, no matter what the tree huggers say.

105
00:09:13,780 --> 00:09:17,960
You know, $2 trillion revenue.

106
00:09:18,260 --> 00:09:22,320
And this, of course, can swing wildly on a trailing 12-month basis.

107
00:09:22,820 --> 00:09:32,260
Looks like $3 trillion or so has been the record ever per year during the madness that was COVID.

108
00:09:32,260 --> 00:09:38,340
it went you know when we had negative uh contango and futures in uh oil went down

109
00:09:38,980 --> 00:09:42,820
trends all month to about a trillion dollars but anyway we're at about two trillion dollars now

110
00:09:43,940 --> 00:09:51,540
on some fairly light oil prices which is not good for mr putin in russia anyway so that's a that's

111
00:09:51,540 --> 00:09:55,380
sort of a bird's eye view uh if you look at it right there you look at the tool tip

112
00:09:56,420 --> 00:10:01,460
two trillion for oil 400 billion for for gold which is a massive record like nothing normal

113
00:10:01,460 --> 00:10:08,680
but a massive record. $34 billion for silver, which again is a massive record. And then $17

114
00:10:08,680 --> 00:10:18,540
billion for Bitcoin, still a less than 20-year asset class, and certainly way less than that as

115
00:10:18,540 --> 00:10:25,200
far as being a mainstay, which it is, as we know. It's not going to come overnight.

116
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:30,400
this is going to follow the power curve, network adoption,

117
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:35,040
and it's just not going to be easy,

118
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,960
but it should be a fun ride to enjoy,

119
00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,360
and this is sort of how I'm looking at where we are

120
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:43,000
in the big picture of the markets.

121
00:10:45,100 --> 00:10:46,060
That's why I love you.

122
00:10:46,220 --> 00:10:48,940
You always bring the data in a credible context,

123
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:50,300
and to build on what you just said,

124
00:10:50,340 --> 00:10:52,380
the fact that Bitcoin is only 17 years old

125
00:10:52,380 --> 00:10:57,300
and already has trailing 12-month mining revenues of $17 billion,

126
00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,280
half of silver's market cap, which is a...

127
00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:00,880
Revenue.

128
00:11:00,980 --> 00:11:01,820
Multi-level revenue.

129
00:11:02,860 --> 00:11:03,800
Yeah, silver's revenue.

130
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:04,080
Yeah.

131
00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:07,680
Been around for thousands of years.

132
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:09,120
I mean, it's pretty impressive, you know?

133
00:11:10,140 --> 00:11:10,400
Yeah.

134
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,860
Let's take a look at silver price long-term.

135
00:11:16,460 --> 00:11:18,580
This is where the silver bugs...

136
00:11:18,580 --> 00:11:19,120
I'm just curious.

137
00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,100
I know they're very excited.

138
00:11:20,100 --> 00:11:21,220
They're very excited.

139
00:11:21,220 --> 00:11:28,360
but uh you can run these little percentiles as i like to do it's an exponential asset i just take

140
00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:36,820
off everything but the trend is it has evolved and where we are now so what you're looking at is the

141
00:11:36,820 --> 00:11:45,900
the dotted red line is a multiple over the exponential trend plotted as a percentile so

142
00:11:45,900 --> 00:11:52,840
it has never been ever in the modern era, which I'm counting as from 1971, which is obviously

143
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:59,120
when gold started to float. It's never been more than 5x the trend price. And it actually hit that

144
00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:06,240
in 2011. So 2011 was 48 bucks. This is a monthly close number, April 2011. The trend itself was

145
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:19,420
$10. So that's 4.8X, 5X rounded. That is a record. And we can see as long as we stay at this price

146
00:12:19,420 --> 00:12:27,360
or a little bit more, this is the current price, 112 bucks approximately. It's a possibility we

147
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:34,980
can take that out this month, but actually not. Have four more days. And the comparable level

148
00:12:34,980 --> 00:12:41,720
is $118. So it's got a close above that. But then I just have to ask you, obviously,

149
00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,500
markets can go up, they can go down. How many silver mines, gold mines look very attractive

150
00:12:46,500 --> 00:12:51,640
right now at these prices, but might not be a few months from now or years from now.

151
00:12:52,060 --> 00:12:57,120
And you can just see how there's really only three spikes in the last 55 years, right? When

152
00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:01,260
The Hunt brothers tried to corner the market in the early 80s.

153
00:13:01,540 --> 00:13:05,520
The 2011 boom and then now.

154
00:13:05,700 --> 00:13:07,380
So look, I'm happy for them.

155
00:13:07,500 --> 00:13:08,220
I'm happy for you.

156
00:13:08,820 --> 00:13:11,280
I wish I had more silver to rotate into Bitcoin.

157
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:13,820
I'm happy for the silver bugs.

158
00:13:13,820 --> 00:13:21,420
But I would advise caution right here if you're sitting on some silver gains.

159
00:13:21,420 --> 00:13:28,960
but matthew the industrial demand is going up exponentially with the ai and energy boom

160
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:38,000
yes it is it is it's a great conductor silver is just a fantastic asset um

161
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:45,220
you know maybe central banks will start buying silver none of them have any silver at the moment

162
00:13:45,220 --> 00:13:50,580
maybe they'll start buying many possibilities marty many possibilities in all seriousness though

163
00:13:50,580 --> 00:13:54,160
the demand elasticity

164
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:58,440
or the supply elasticity being driven by demand

165
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,740
in silver, how does it compare to gold and Bitcoin?

166
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,080
Well, I don't have a

167
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,160
good chart to actually completely

168
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,560
play that out, but I will say if we just look

169
00:14:14,560 --> 00:14:16,360
at price, which again

170
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:20,060
can certainly get ahead of itself

171
00:14:20,060 --> 00:14:26,780
but we can establish a trend. There's a, you know, there is an exponential trend that's going to fit

172
00:14:26,780 --> 00:14:31,880
everything. So here against dollars, all right, this trend is actually, take a guess, Marty,

173
00:14:32,140 --> 00:14:37,740
what do you think? I love when I ask you these questions, right? And I know you do too. What do

174
00:14:37,740 --> 00:14:43,020
you think the slope of this black line is, which is how you should measure your silver gains,

175
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:49,760
even in a volatile market? What do you think it is? 50 years, got this. It's not a great R squared,

176
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,260
at 54%, but you can see that it certainly fits the data.

177
00:14:53,180 --> 00:14:54,400
What do you think the slope of that curve is?

178
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,440
Like what's the annual CAGR?

179
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:04,480
Yeah.

180
00:15:07,700 --> 00:15:09,360
3.5%.

181
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:10,760
Excellent.

182
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:11,820
Nicely done.

183
00:15:12,100 --> 00:15:12,780
Slightly under that.

184
00:15:12,940 --> 00:15:14,420
Just a little over 3% per year.

185
00:15:14,420 --> 00:15:23,540
so again you can make tons of money catching the trend trend is always your friend i'm happy for

186
00:15:23,540 --> 00:15:28,980
the silver bugs but i would again advise caution and then to get back to your question about um

187
00:15:31,060 --> 00:15:36,100
so actually let's let's look at dollar first so let's go back to the to the power curve let's just

188
00:15:36,100 --> 00:15:41,140
look at bitcoin in terms of dollars and then we're going to look at bitcoins in terms of silver ounces

189
00:15:41,140 --> 00:15:45,640
and see the wild time.

190
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:46,740
Okay, so as you know,

191
00:15:47,340 --> 00:15:48,540
I've been showing your listeners this

192
00:15:48,540 --> 00:15:51,160
and viewers for many years.

193
00:15:51,220 --> 00:15:52,920
I've been tracking this myself since like 2018.

194
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:55,360
Bitcoin generally follows a power curve,

195
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:56,140
which is unique.

196
00:15:56,620 --> 00:15:58,440
Most financial assets follow an exponential curve,

197
00:15:58,560 --> 00:15:59,420
straight line on log scale.

198
00:15:59,500 --> 00:16:00,240
This is not straight.

199
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:02,060
Simply means it's proportional,

200
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:03,380
more general growth

201
00:16:03,380 --> 00:16:06,940
that is proportional to itself,

202
00:16:06,940 --> 00:16:08,980
not constant growth like exponential growth,

203
00:16:08,980 --> 00:16:12,500
which is, as long as it holds, it's probably a good thing.

204
00:16:13,380 --> 00:16:16,340
It's about 42% per year at the moment, but that's falling.

205
00:16:18,060 --> 00:16:22,240
And so the power curve itself is a little over 125K.

206
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:26,920
It's 127K dollars, dollars, all right, for one Bitcoin.

207
00:16:27,260 --> 00:16:30,580
Obviously, as we know, we're a little bit light on that.

208
00:16:30,580 --> 00:16:33,280
That last pull in into the model here, I got 88K.

209
00:16:33,940 --> 00:16:36,700
No, 80, zoom in.

210
00:16:38,980 --> 00:16:41,040
I got 87.6K.

211
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:48,380
And that is like the 45th percentile.

212
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,300
All right, so the median would be the 50th percentile.

213
00:16:51,420 --> 00:16:54,460
I mean, you could say it's right on track, right?

214
00:16:54,460 --> 00:16:56,700
Of course, the big question is what's going to happen at the end of this year.

215
00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:58,660
We can talk about that later.

216
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:03,140
Like, if we didn't have a huge boom, maybe we won't have a huge bust, as I said earlier.

217
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:03,980
We'll see.

218
00:17:03,980 --> 00:17:16,760
But at least as of right now, with massive institutional adoption, Bitcoin only gaining traction, much better utility than gold or silver, in our opinion, I'm sure.

219
00:17:17,780 --> 00:17:20,680
It's still looking right on track, okay?

220
00:17:21,300 --> 00:17:22,360
That's in dollar terms.

221
00:17:22,540 --> 00:17:26,100
Now, let's do this power curve in silver ounces.

222
00:17:27,020 --> 00:17:28,940
And this is just pretty wild.

223
00:17:28,940 --> 00:17:38,680
so this is let's just go back let's pick a date like somewhere end of 2015

224
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:46,420
end of 2015 okay so bitcoin had never hit uh it only hit a thousand bucks once in 2013 wouldn't

225
00:17:46,420 --> 00:17:53,480
hit it again until the start of 2017 uh i actually can't remember 2015 price so probably like 400

226
00:17:53,480 --> 00:18:03,520
bucks here, $350, whatever it is. We can see it in a second. The Bitcoin price in silver ounces

227
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:14,660
is 30, 31, 31 silver ounces to buy one Bitcoin back in 2015, not even 10 years ago. Now, let's

228
00:18:14,660 --> 00:18:20,880
go to the worst days of Bitcoin in the last cycle, which were after the SPF debacle. All right.

229
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:30,300
he said he had a bunch of bitcoin didn't have one end of 2022 708 ounces of silver to buy one bitcoin

230
00:18:30,300 --> 00:18:40,280
any comments just from that statement pretty impressive pretty impressive all right pretty

231
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:47,140
impressive now silver's been on a tear as gold but silver's been on a on a wild tear so 700

232
00:18:47,140 --> 00:18:55,380
roughly low 700s even high 600s uh because bitcoin was doing very bad relative to silver

233
00:18:55,380 --> 00:18:59,820
all right now bitcoin's still been doing fine in the last couple years the silver's been doing

234
00:18:59,820 --> 00:19:03,180
better so what you see is this chart bitcoin goes up but then bitcoin goes back down

235
00:19:03,180 --> 00:19:11,700
we're right about where we were interestingly a little bit higher 785 ounces

236
00:19:11,700 --> 00:19:19,540
but you know ask yourself like what's happened to the silver market in the last three years versus

237
00:19:19,540 --> 00:19:24,540
what's happened to the bitcoin market i understand silver is a good conductor you'll be part of data

238
00:19:24,540 --> 00:19:32,120
centers you know now we're taking it uh we used to say that uh gold was better because it had no

239
00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:36,880
real industrial use it was more still a store value now i guess it's good that silver has

240
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:46,560
industrial use, but putting that aside, 785 ounces of silver per Bitcoin. And if you look at this on

241
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:53,640
a percentile basis, which is a multiple over or under the trend, and the trend is 5,800 ounces,

242
00:19:54,040 --> 00:20:00,960
all right, the power trend. So 96% R squared. We go with the bands, the bands, we're setting

243
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,580
new lows for Bitcoin in terms of silver.

244
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:05,760
So relative to the trend.

245
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:14,620
So the silver bug's literally at 785 ounces for one Bitcoin.

246
00:20:15,060 --> 00:20:17,620
Relative to the trend, this is actually the cheapest it's ever been.

247
00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:20,940
So this is the question I would put to you is,

248
00:20:21,500 --> 00:20:26,120
for how much longer are silver bugs going to get this deal on Bitcoin?

249
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,860
Or are we just going to keep blowing this chart up?

250
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:37,500
it's a great question it's a rhetorical question did you uh did you see our friend uh james

251
00:20:37,500 --> 00:20:56,118
checks tweet yesterday i didn but he great obviously what uh what do you say he sold he he been on this show talking about hey i diversify into precious metals gold silver platinum But he sent a tweet out yesterday They went to the silver dealer to sell some bullion

252
00:20:56,118 --> 00:21:00,918
And he was getting toppy signals, a long line of people waiting to buy,

253
00:21:01,718 --> 00:21:05,098
talking about how much they were up from their buys a few weeks ago.

254
00:21:06,298 --> 00:21:08,938
And so there are some social signals out there that we may be.

255
00:21:08,978 --> 00:21:14,158
I mean, if you've got lines at silver shops, yes, I would say that's a very, very much of a toppy signal.

256
00:21:14,998 --> 00:21:19,118
I mean, you could just look at the old,

257
00:21:19,118 --> 00:21:22,178
God, I have too many charts.

258
00:21:22,298 --> 00:21:23,138
Where did I just put it?

259
00:21:23,998 --> 00:21:24,538
Lost it.

260
00:21:24,898 --> 00:21:28,098
You can look at the old dollar price

261
00:21:28,098 --> 00:21:30,758
and see that we're literally at the top.

262
00:21:30,978 --> 00:21:32,658
Of course, I mean, it can double from here.

263
00:21:32,778 --> 00:21:34,918
You know, you can go from 5X the trend to 10X,

264
00:21:35,578 --> 00:21:37,218
but it's just always a question of how sustainable

265
00:21:37,218 --> 00:21:41,018
that is going to be for the market down the road.

266
00:21:41,098 --> 00:21:42,898
But anyway, to sort of finish the thought,

267
00:21:42,898 --> 00:21:50,138
Yeah, I would say, and this chart looks wild for gold as well, by the way, but not as insane as silver.

268
00:21:50,258 --> 00:21:56,658
So silver, literally every day that sort of it stays at its level and Bitcoin stays at its level or even goes a little bit lower.

269
00:21:57,218 --> 00:22:03,158
This is the best trend-wise that the price has ever been.

270
00:22:03,158 --> 00:22:09,158
Not the best in raw ounces size, as we clearly showed.

271
00:22:09,158 --> 00:22:14,518
If you go back only less than 10 years ago, it is only 30 ounces of silver per Bitcoin.

272
00:22:15,638 --> 00:22:20,318
So, yeah, I don't see this lasting much longer, but I'm happy for our silver book friends,

273
00:22:20,838 --> 00:22:25,318
because I'm sure there's even some overlap with our Bitcoin friends for their gains.

274
00:22:25,778 --> 00:22:29,098
So, Freaks, if you've been listening for a while, you've probably heard us all talk about BitKey.

275
00:22:29,518 --> 00:22:33,438
It's a Bitcoin wallet built for people who want self-custody to actually fit into their lives.

276
00:22:33,778 --> 00:22:37,198
BitKey is a private multi-sig wallet that removes the biggest point of failure in traditional self-custody,

277
00:22:37,198 --> 00:22:41,218
the seed phrase. No ceremony, nothing to hide, and no single mistake that can put your Bitcoin

278
00:22:41,218 --> 00:22:45,798
at risk. We all know things get lost. I lose things all the time. Phones get replaced. Life

279
00:22:45,798 --> 00:22:50,318
happens. BitKey specifically is designed so your Bitcoin stays secure and recoverable without

280
00:22:50,318 --> 00:22:54,938
demanding constant attention or expertise because it's built for the long term. Inherence is built

281
00:22:54,938 --> 00:22:59,238
in so your Bitcoin can move securely into the next generation. It's Bitcoin self-custody built

282
00:22:59,238 --> 00:23:04,198
for real life and for February only for you freaks, okay? February only. You got 28 days,

283
00:23:04,198 --> 00:23:09,658
not a leap year. I'm pretty sure. 28 days. You listeners, TFTC listeners can get BitKey for $99

284
00:23:09,658 --> 00:23:18,018
using code TFTC99 at bitkey.world. That's B-I-T-K-E-Y dot world. Use the code TFTC99

285
00:23:18,018 --> 00:23:22,678
and you're going to get a BitKey for $99. What's up, freaks? This rep is brought to you by good

286
00:23:22,678 --> 00:23:26,258
friends at Silent. Silent creates everyday, faraday gear that protects your hardware.

287
00:23:26,478 --> 00:23:30,938
We're in Bitcoin. We have a lot of hardware that we need to secure. Your wallet emits signals that

288
00:23:30,938 --> 00:23:35,498
can leave you vulnerable. You want to pick up silence gear, put your hardware in that. I have

289
00:23:35,498 --> 00:23:39,718
a tap signer right here. I got the silent card holder replaced my wallet. I was using Ridge wallet

290
00:23:39,718 --> 00:23:45,118
because it's secured against RFID signal jacking. Silent, the card holder does the same thing. It's

291
00:23:45,118 --> 00:23:49,658
much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve, which you can

292
00:23:49,658 --> 00:23:52,938
put a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys to the house too. There's been a lot

293
00:23:52,938 --> 00:23:57,858
of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks. It's a Bitcoin company. They're

294
00:23:57,858 --> 00:24:02,098
running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury. They accept Bitcoin via strike. So go to

295
00:24:02,098 --> 00:24:09,018
slnt.com slash tftc to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code tftc when shopping at

296
00:24:09,018 --> 00:24:14,038
slnt.com. Patented technology, special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go check

297
00:24:14,038 --> 00:24:18,538
it out. There is. And I think a lot of the discussion over the last few months as gold

298
00:24:18,538 --> 00:24:24,218
and silver have gone on this historic tear is, is this the big one? Is it happening?

299
00:24:24,218 --> 00:24:31,718
I just had Josh Farron who runs the Scottsdale Mint in the Wyoming Gold Reserve.

300
00:24:32,498 --> 00:24:43,678
And so he's in the middle of the physical markets and he had some interesting anecdotes of what he's seen behind the scenes in the physical bullion space for gold and silver.

301
00:24:43,678 --> 00:24:54,518
It seems like this push towards a multipolar world is forcing the hands of sovereigns like China for gold specifically to buy physical indiscriminately.

302
00:24:55,658 --> 00:24:57,998
Yeah, but I'm not seeing much of a change.

303
00:24:58,098 --> 00:24:59,978
I mean, he might – I mean, obviously, I'm not in the industry.

304
00:25:00,098 --> 00:25:01,638
I just chart the general public data.

305
00:25:02,098 --> 00:25:05,098
But if you look at – I'll show you a chart right here.

306
00:25:05,098 --> 00:25:19,998
But if you look at the amount of ounces that central banks buy relative to the trend, which turned around literally after the GFC, it's like half a percent a year and it's not going up.

307
00:25:20,878 --> 00:25:23,318
Yes, China's buying more.

308
00:25:23,678 --> 00:25:26,138
Yes, even Poland is buying more.

309
00:25:26,878 --> 00:25:30,058
But the old world countries, they're not selling.

310
00:25:30,818 --> 00:25:34,898
Of course, Britain sold, Canada sold, the geniuses like 20 years ago.

311
00:25:35,098 --> 00:25:37,978
but it's not really changing.

312
00:25:38,638 --> 00:25:43,338
So I'll show you what I mean here in a second.

313
00:25:44,998 --> 00:25:49,138
So I find that argument also kind of interesting.

314
00:25:49,358 --> 00:25:50,458
So here's the big picture.

315
00:25:52,038 --> 00:25:52,318
All right.

316
00:25:52,878 --> 00:25:56,078
If the largest gold holders in the world,

317
00:25:56,118 --> 00:25:57,778
which are central banks, are going to move the market,

318
00:25:59,358 --> 00:26:01,398
you'd think you'd see it in the data.

319
00:26:01,798 --> 00:26:04,378
And this goes until September, right?

320
00:26:05,098 --> 00:26:11,778
Um, and this is actually, I need to actually take off Euro area. Cause I cut us, I'm taking,

321
00:26:12,018 --> 00:26:19,578
uh, hold on. It's like this roughly. So it's, it's, it's something like 1.2 billion ounces

322
00:26:19,578 --> 00:26:25,218
central banks have. And that's, that's, yeah, that's steadily increased since 2008,

323
00:26:25,218 --> 00:26:30,838
but the rate of growth there is less than a percent a year compounded. So if you ask yourself

324
00:26:30,838 --> 00:26:36,758
less than a percent of the year compounded for central banks buying gold, 42 percent compounded

325
00:26:36,758 --> 00:26:43,958
per year price, which has been the case for the last two plus years, almost three years for the

326
00:26:43,958 --> 00:26:53,758
gold and silver markets. Is that justified? We'll see. If it's the big one, meaning, you know,

327
00:26:53,758 --> 00:27:02,458
fiat issuers, central banks start to see that there might not be a way out and that they need

328
00:27:02,458 --> 00:27:06,778
to revalue their currencies in gold. Regardless, it's good if you hold Bitcoin, gold, or silver,

329
00:27:06,778 --> 00:27:15,078
because it is true. I mean, you know, I remember we interviewed Tyler Jenks, rest in peace,

330
00:27:15,258 --> 00:27:20,218
many years ago. And he said, you know, it's always possible if the main sovereigns want to revalue,

331
00:27:20,218 --> 00:27:22,778
like in that sort of once in 100 year event,

332
00:27:22,778 --> 00:27:24,718
then if you're holding the physical,

333
00:27:24,718 --> 00:27:26,358
it's much better than holding like an ETF

334
00:27:26,358 --> 00:27:27,758
where they could rip you off.

335
00:27:28,218 --> 00:27:29,678
But if you're holding the actual physical,

336
00:27:29,838 --> 00:27:31,098
whatever the revaluation is,

337
00:27:31,358 --> 00:27:34,338
you will accrete that full value.

338
00:27:35,458 --> 00:27:38,818
So from that side, yeah, it's good to have some gold,

339
00:27:38,918 --> 00:27:39,658
good to have some silver.

340
00:27:40,338 --> 00:27:42,078
Let me show you a competing chart,

341
00:27:42,398 --> 00:27:45,038
which would show that there's actually plenty of room left,

342
00:27:45,118 --> 00:27:48,438
at least in the case of the United States,

343
00:27:48,438 --> 00:27:55,578
and that chart is going to be right here.

344
00:27:59,538 --> 00:28:00,918
I show this chart a lot.

345
00:28:01,198 --> 00:28:03,418
I know you've seen it before,

346
00:28:03,418 --> 00:28:07,338
but this is the old long-term view of what the Fed holds

347
00:28:07,338 --> 00:28:09,798
versus how much debt the United States has issued.

348
00:28:11,078 --> 00:28:14,578
So the peak was nearly 30%

349
00:28:14,578 --> 00:28:18,078
back with the major inflation of COVID times.

350
00:28:18,438 --> 00:28:25,318
Right. The Fed stopped printing. The U.S. kept borrowing. Now.

351
00:28:27,038 --> 00:28:37,198
We can talk all the time about, you know, this is unsustainable. It's not going to work. And I know that that's a, you know, that's a big, big theme in newsletter industry.

352
00:28:37,198 --> 00:28:59,858
But the fact is, the central bank now only holds 16% of the US's debt. And that leaves room for the bazooka when the new Fed share comes in, which Trump, we know what Trump wants to do, right? Especially with the midterms coming, wants to keep interest rates low, keep people happy, the affordability word.

353
00:28:59,858 --> 00:29:03,098
So again, I'm not defending any of this.

354
00:29:03,098 --> 00:29:09,938
I'm just saying these are charts to me that show like, yes, we know that the past 20 years

355
00:29:09,938 --> 00:29:12,578
have been historically sort of insane for central banks.

356
00:29:12,698 --> 00:29:16,878
You can see that here, just the goofy asset purchases and the way this line just looks

357
00:29:16,878 --> 00:29:17,398
really weird.

358
00:29:18,738 --> 00:29:25,778
But it's lower relative to where it's been at any time, basically, in the last 18 years,

359
00:29:26,418 --> 00:29:27,318
17, 18 years.

360
00:29:27,318 --> 00:29:28,318
So yeah.

361
00:29:29,858 --> 00:29:30,278
There's room.

362
00:29:30,678 --> 00:29:31,118
They have room.

363
00:29:32,098 --> 00:29:33,698
It's pretty impressive they've been able to do that.

364
00:29:34,578 --> 00:29:37,818
I mean, because in 2019, last time we were at these levels,

365
00:29:37,898 --> 00:29:38,958
that's when you had the repo spasm.

366
00:29:39,898 --> 00:29:41,378
Yep, exactly.

367
00:29:41,758 --> 00:29:42,738
And it had to turn around.

368
00:29:42,738 --> 00:29:46,418
And probably, you know, we actually saw it did.

369
00:29:46,598 --> 00:29:47,758
Look at how it did turn around.

370
00:29:48,018 --> 00:29:51,898
So kind of the nice hidden signal here is you see that the repo spasm happened,

371
00:29:52,058 --> 00:29:53,678
and then they started to buy more.

372
00:29:54,418 --> 00:29:58,058
And that was before all the madness, which happened in February, March 2020.

373
00:29:58,058 --> 00:30:09,898
So, and you can see even here from the last point of data I have, it's like a little bit turning around in December, which we knew was going to happen, but still plenty of room.

374
00:30:11,198 --> 00:30:13,778
And so that's how I see it.

375
00:30:13,858 --> 00:30:19,138
I don't necessarily see it as that the big one, the five alarm fire yet.

376
00:30:21,678 --> 00:30:26,618
But I think we're going to, I mean, in the next 10 years for sure with what Bitcoin can do, and I'll show you some more charts with that.

377
00:30:26,618 --> 00:30:32,618
But we're going to see wild levels for Bitcoin, for central bank balance sheets.

378
00:30:33,818 --> 00:30:34,898
It's going to be pretty wild.

379
00:30:35,018 --> 00:30:36,658
But I don't see it, honestly, with gold.

380
00:30:38,438 --> 00:30:39,718
You correct me.

381
00:30:42,118 --> 00:30:46,718
I know you've been talking to gold experts, and I'm not one.

382
00:30:46,718 --> 00:30:55,938
But there are no, except for like China and even Russia, right, with their horrible genocidal war in Ukraine.

383
00:30:55,938 --> 00:30:59,538
they haven't been buying in the last few years they're completely bankrupt they have no money

384
00:30:59,538 --> 00:31:07,058
they haven't bought in five years uh poland is buying i would advise what did poland announce

385
00:31:07,058 --> 00:31:13,218
they want to become like a top five holder or something like that uh i don't know if that's

386
00:31:13,218 --> 00:31:19,058
what they said but that seems far off at 15 million ounces but um they definitely said they were gonna

387
00:31:19,058 --> 00:31:25,618
keep buying and they might maybe a top five buyer um maybe that was it yeah right but i mean like

388
00:31:25,938 --> 00:31:28,598
All the other big central banks, they're not doing anything.

389
00:31:28,698 --> 00:31:29,178
They have it.

390
00:31:29,978 --> 00:31:32,678
Of course, we don't know if the U.S. actually has it.

391
00:31:32,738 --> 00:31:34,778
It hasn't been audited since the Eisenhower administration,

392
00:31:34,938 --> 00:31:36,478
but it is there, theoretically.

393
00:31:38,978 --> 00:31:41,638
It's really only China.

394
00:31:41,878 --> 00:31:46,218
It's China and Poland are the biggest countries that are buying,

395
00:31:46,698 --> 00:31:47,418
which is kind of funny.

396
00:31:47,618 --> 00:31:48,238
Not even Russia.

397
00:31:50,158 --> 00:31:54,318
So, yes, that adds to the speculation,

398
00:31:54,318 --> 00:32:01,678
But does this much buying of gold from one country mean that gold should be going up 42% per year in the last three years?

399
00:32:03,018 --> 00:32:10,198
Something tells me this might end badly for some people that might be over-levering this situation.

400
00:32:10,878 --> 00:32:19,098
It could be the big one, but there's a lot of other data here that shows in the fiat world they have left themselves some space.

401
00:32:21,098 --> 00:32:24,298
I mean, like you were saying earlier, I'm very happy for silver and gold bugs.

402
00:32:24,318 --> 00:32:28,218
And I do get some joy when I see the tweets.

403
00:32:28,318 --> 00:32:29,118
We're going to $150,000.

404
00:32:29,218 --> 00:32:30,598
We're going to $200,000 for silver.

405
00:32:30,798 --> 00:32:33,418
Gold's going to $10,000 immediately.

406
00:32:33,918 --> 00:32:37,678
But then I just have PTSD flashbacks to December 2017

407
00:32:37,678 --> 00:32:39,638
when we thought we were going to $100,000 Bitcoin.

408
00:32:43,738 --> 00:32:45,558
Quickly got humbled.

409
00:32:46,338 --> 00:32:46,538
Yeah.

410
00:32:46,758 --> 00:32:50,318
And I've talked about this many times with the old stock-to-flow nonsense.

411
00:32:50,318 --> 00:32:58,078
nonsense, but you know how people say one of the common tropes is that gold, the gold-silver

412
00:32:58,078 --> 00:33:01,978
ratio at the moment, whatever it is, I don't know, 100x, it's less than 100x now because

413
00:33:01,978 --> 00:33:03,618
of silver.

414
00:33:04,338 --> 00:33:05,738
What's gold-silver ratio at the moment?

415
00:33:06,798 --> 00:33:07,638
It's just 50.

416
00:33:07,638 --> 00:33:08,178
Say it exactly.

417
00:33:09,258 --> 00:33:09,938
Is it even 50?

418
00:33:09,938 --> 00:33:10,298
No, 50.

419
00:33:10,298 --> 00:33:10,718
Which is?

420
00:33:11,598 --> 00:33:13,538
I think gold's at 5,000, silver's at 100.

421
00:33:14,338 --> 00:33:14,718
Right.

422
00:33:15,338 --> 00:33:15,498
So.

423
00:33:15,498 --> 00:33:15,858
Red round.

424
00:33:15,858 --> 00:33:27,738
um if that number used to be like a hundred right used to be a hundred so it's already compressed

425
00:33:27,738 --> 00:33:33,278
right when people say oh it needs to compress more to go to say 15x which is the old gold

426
00:33:33,278 --> 00:33:39,998
silver ratio that's way not the right way to look at it because the actual ounces

427
00:33:39,998 --> 00:33:46,418
in the ground right now, the mining ratio, both in the ground and that come out of the ground,

428
00:33:47,458 --> 00:33:54,198
is already something like 8x. So actually, there's too much silver coming. If 15 to 1,

429
00:33:54,198 --> 00:34:01,118
here's the point, if 15 to 1 is your benchmark of the gold to silver ratio, and so like silver

430
00:34:01,118 --> 00:34:07,838
bucks saying, this is going to compress that old ratio for the past 20 years of gold being 100

431
00:34:07,838 --> 00:34:12,398
times more valuable as far as price goes. Now it's only 50. That's going to compress all the

432
00:34:12,398 --> 00:34:19,678
way to 15. First of all, it's not going to last. Secondly, the mining ratio right now is already

433
00:34:19,678 --> 00:34:29,058
too aggressive beyond that. It's like eight. So there's 56, 57 billion ounces of silver,

434
00:34:30,338 --> 00:34:36,238
seven billion ounces of gold due to the math. I mean, it's about eight, nine is that. So we've

435
00:34:36,238 --> 00:34:40,998
already actually gone relative to the old ratio of 15 to one, if that's your benchmark,

436
00:34:41,658 --> 00:34:50,038
the mining ratio shows it points to too much silver mining. So the point is that all these

437
00:34:50,038 --> 00:34:54,978
little ratios people come up with are these ideas that it's going to go, like you're saying, 200

438
00:34:54,978 --> 00:35:00,358
bucks, 500 bucks. So the ratio is going to go back to 15 to one. It doesn't hold up.

439
00:35:00,878 --> 00:35:04,938
Number one, over the long term, when you look at the statistical multiples that we're talking

440
00:35:04,938 --> 00:35:12,738
about here, nor in the sort of mining world, because the mining world would tell us that

441
00:35:12,738 --> 00:35:17,758
actually silver has been overproduced relative to gold for a long time.

442
00:35:18,698 --> 00:35:22,218
And you're going to say it's going to be even more produced now because of data centers,

443
00:35:22,318 --> 00:35:23,418
whatever, and the price is going to go up.

444
00:35:23,538 --> 00:35:24,578
I mean, maybe.

445
00:35:24,678 --> 00:35:27,618
People are making a lot of wild claims about data centers as it is.

446
00:35:28,138 --> 00:35:29,958
We're going to have to see how all this plays out.

447
00:35:29,958 --> 00:35:40,718
But I have a very hard time seeing gold's going to go back, or sorry, silver's going to go back, take all of those gains from gold, get back to 15 to 1, and then stay there.

448
00:35:41,258 --> 00:35:41,958
That's the point.

449
00:35:42,098 --> 00:35:42,838
And then stay there.

450
00:35:43,578 --> 00:35:47,618
It's just, as you see here, it doesn't work like that.

451
00:35:48,818 --> 00:35:59,258
And then if you think of the incremental market cap increases that would need to get there, like where are those trillions going to flow from is one of the first questions I would have.

452
00:35:59,258 --> 00:36:06,398
precisely you go back to this chart um you know yeah there's probably some gold silver bugs like

453
00:36:06,398 --> 00:36:10,958
i said the sprit article that i saw i mean just loving life making paper billions right now

454
00:36:10,958 --> 00:36:17,178
from unprofitable prior unprofitable speculative mining investments but now

455
00:36:17,178 --> 00:36:22,138
at these prices those ounces theoretically are profitable even though they haven't been mined

456
00:36:22,138 --> 00:36:27,698
there's a lot to play out here a lot to play out and the beautiful thing about bitcoin is

457
00:36:27,698 --> 00:36:34,098
Bitcoin does not have these problems, right? Because as they say, the cure for high prices

458
00:36:34,098 --> 00:36:38,598
is high prices if you want to buy more, right? Because price just stays up too long.

459
00:36:39,858 --> 00:36:45,718
People come in, over-speculate, over-produce. Mines, which people think are really, really great,

460
00:36:46,058 --> 00:36:49,358
all of a sudden aren't. When you realize that people don't want to pay these prices,

461
00:36:49,358 --> 00:36:55,938
a few months down the line, price falls with all the competition. Equilibrium is restored.

462
00:36:56,618 --> 00:36:59,538
Bitcoin doesn't have that problem because of the difficulty adjustment.

463
00:37:00,218 --> 00:37:03,798
It's actually the less Bitcoins, as we know, that comes out every 10 minutes, every four years.

464
00:37:04,438 --> 00:37:07,278
Totally different asset class, in my opinion.

465
00:37:08,218 --> 00:37:14,218
As we know, everybody knows our opinions as far as the general directionality of bullishness.

466
00:37:14,378 --> 00:37:19,898
There's much more upside that you can see from Bitcoin than even the wild and silver markets.

467
00:37:20,018 --> 00:37:22,418
But I have to admit, they're pretty wild right now.

468
00:37:22,678 --> 00:37:23,438
Pretty amazing.

469
00:37:24,138 --> 00:37:25,738
I know they all had a great Christmas.

470
00:37:25,938 --> 00:37:28,758
I'm happy for them, but be careful.

471
00:37:30,538 --> 00:37:31,878
It is fun to watch.

472
00:37:32,498 --> 00:37:34,778
At the very least, it's incredibly fun to watch.

473
00:37:35,278 --> 00:37:35,678
It is.

474
00:37:35,678 --> 00:37:41,678
I mean, and again, really digging into the relative

475
00:37:42,238 --> 00:37:47,458
sort of undervaluation of Bitcoin right now.

476
00:37:47,938 --> 00:37:51,998
Like, I mean, we saw it earlier on the Bitcoin to silver

477
00:37:51,998 --> 00:37:55,738
power trend chart, but just to articulate to people

478
00:37:55,738 --> 00:38:00,398
who are fearful out there that they're missing out on all the gold and silver gains.

479
00:38:00,518 --> 00:38:02,218
Bitcoin's doing nothing.

480
00:38:02,298 --> 00:38:04,438
We're poking it with a stick saying, do something.

481
00:38:04,718 --> 00:38:05,878
And it's not responding.

482
00:38:07,758 --> 00:38:08,998
Why should they not be worried?

483
00:38:10,718 --> 00:38:12,118
Because the trend is your friend.

484
00:38:13,118 --> 00:38:19,978
And just because we're at sort of record levels here of,

485
00:38:22,298 --> 00:38:24,798
record levels of cheap, if you're a gold holder,

486
00:38:24,798 --> 00:38:26,418
if you're a silver order and you're looking at Bitcoin.

487
00:38:27,138 --> 00:38:29,318
By the way, I haven't showed gold.

488
00:38:29,758 --> 00:38:30,318
Here's gold.

489
00:38:32,418 --> 00:38:37,238
So gold, interestingly, is not as cheap.

490
00:38:37,318 --> 00:38:40,158
Remember how with silver, we're literally at the bottom,

491
00:38:40,458 --> 00:38:43,838
like the cheapest it's ever been, 0.1x.

492
00:38:44,238 --> 00:38:47,378
Gold is not there yet, but it is under the 10th percentile.

493
00:38:47,918 --> 00:38:49,438
And I just asked the same question.

494
00:38:49,558 --> 00:38:53,298
I mean, how cheap are we going to give gold bugs

495
00:38:53,298 --> 00:38:55,278
who have been so angry for the last 15 years,

496
00:38:55,338 --> 00:38:56,918
how cheap are we going to give them Bitcoin?

497
00:38:57,498 --> 00:38:58,838
When Bitcoin is such a liquid asset,

498
00:38:59,878 --> 00:39:02,338
more and more people know about it every day.

499
00:39:03,038 --> 00:39:06,698
It's growing from a network effect way faster

500
00:39:06,698 --> 00:39:08,138
than the gold or silver markets,

501
00:39:08,258 --> 00:39:10,298
which are, even though they're exponential growth,

502
00:39:10,378 --> 00:39:12,038
they only grow 1% or 2% a year.

503
00:39:12,578 --> 00:39:15,198
Way different, way different with Bitcoin.

504
00:39:15,678 --> 00:39:16,958
In all levels, Bitcoin,

505
00:39:16,958 --> 00:39:20,778
when you're looking at hash rate or price or addresses,

506
00:39:20,778 --> 00:39:23,638
It's growing way, way faster from a network effect.

507
00:39:25,938 --> 00:39:46,238
You just got to ask yourself, at what point are we going to give gold bugs, you know, 17 ounce Bitcoin prices when, you know, statistically that is a 8 percentile event, meaning 92% of the prices relative to the trend in history have been more expensive than that.

508
00:39:46,238 --> 00:39:54,718
But what I really think is very interesting is it is a, you know, the gold and silver markets are kind of a good governor on the Bitcoin price.

509
00:39:55,638 --> 00:40:00,738
And they're, you know, they're showing how stretched we can do this, right?

510
00:40:00,738 --> 00:40:04,558
Because the dollar chart in power curve terms looks pretty normal.

511
00:40:04,558 --> 00:40:09,758
Okay, we're a little bit below that $127K power trend, right?

512
00:40:09,758 --> 00:40:17,578
but you know how cheap are we going to give gold and silver bucks uh this bitcoin this these bitcoin

513
00:40:17,578 --> 00:40:23,738
prices for how much longer that's the that's that's why you know i i stream every day almost

514
00:40:23,738 --> 00:40:27,498
every day now and this is the chart that i just keep revisiting every day another interesting

515
00:40:27,498 --> 00:40:35,418
thing with gold right okay so it's a 17 ounce 17 and a half ounce price right now okay the trend is

516
00:40:35,418 --> 00:40:37,518
65, 65 ounces of gold.

517
00:40:37,878 --> 00:40:39,758
So we're trading well below trend,

518
00:40:40,078 --> 00:40:41,558
all right, below the 10th percentile,

519
00:40:41,758 --> 00:40:44,238
which is below 0.3x the trend.

520
00:40:45,598 --> 00:40:47,118
If you only went back to that,

521
00:40:47,718 --> 00:40:50,418
you know, sad days, SPF days,

522
00:40:51,858 --> 00:40:53,498
scam, bankman fraud,

523
00:40:53,678 --> 00:40:55,798
and all the other TradFi,

524
00:40:56,238 --> 00:40:57,158
or not TradFi, what was it called?

525
00:40:57,218 --> 00:40:58,858
DeFi nonsense of that year.

526
00:40:59,978 --> 00:41:01,158
What was the gold price?

527
00:41:01,378 --> 00:41:03,058
Sorry, what was the Bitcoin price in terms of gold?

528
00:41:03,778 --> 00:41:05,178
It was actually still cheaper than now.

529
00:41:05,418 --> 00:41:10,258
So this is where silver even looks more wild because it's about the same price.

530
00:41:10,838 --> 00:41:16,598
But do I see Bitcoin gold going to 10 ounces again?

531
00:41:18,098 --> 00:41:19,538
Just have to look at the statistics.

532
00:41:19,738 --> 00:41:20,798
Anything is possible.

533
00:41:21,058 --> 00:41:21,878
Anything is possible.

534
00:41:21,878 --> 00:41:26,918
But I see it very, very unlikely that we go back and test these levels again.

535
00:41:27,018 --> 00:41:32,198
Even if you look at the zero-th percentile, that would be 0.1x the trend.

536
00:41:32,518 --> 00:41:34,198
That's eight ounces of gold right now.

537
00:41:35,418 --> 00:41:46,256
Could we hit eight ounces of gold Well every day that passes the power curve goes up Still it not like it broken or anything It just gets stretched at these levels

538
00:41:48,576 --> 00:41:49,716
I have a hard time.

539
00:41:49,856 --> 00:41:58,756
Statistically, it would be a very, very rare event for gold bugs to get less than 10 ounces per one BTC.

540
00:42:00,776 --> 00:42:01,496
That's the question.

541
00:42:01,496 --> 00:42:04,576
I've got a bet out there with the other Matthew in my life.

542
00:42:04,576 --> 00:42:08,736
Matthew Odell. He's very bullish on Bitcoin this year. I am as well.

543
00:42:09,496 --> 00:42:12,716
But looking at these charts, the gold and silver to Bitcoin,

544
00:42:13,496 --> 00:42:16,676
Bitcoin to gold, Bitcoin to silver ratio, we have a bet out there.

545
00:42:17,296 --> 00:42:20,576
He thinks that Bitcoin will hit an all-time high

546
00:42:20,576 --> 00:42:24,376
in gold and silver terms at one point

547
00:42:24,376 --> 00:42:28,516
this year, at least. I said, listen, I'm bullish

548
00:42:28,516 --> 00:42:31,936
on Bitcoin. I think the Bitcoin price is going to go up. The question is, do gold and silver

549
00:42:31,936 --> 00:42:38,636
either not rise fast enough or fall to a point where we sort of intersect with the Bitcoin price.

550
00:42:38,636 --> 00:42:43,816
And we hit new Bitcoin all-time highs priced in these precious metals.

551
00:42:45,316 --> 00:42:48,576
Am I crazy for saying I don't think they're going to hit an all-time high this year?

552
00:42:48,936 --> 00:42:51,696
No, I mean, I would probably be on your side there.

553
00:42:51,796 --> 00:42:57,236
So what was his catalyst to make the gold and silver price sort of crash and Bitcoin explode?

554
00:42:57,456 --> 00:42:59,156
I don't think he has anything in his mind.

555
00:42:59,236 --> 00:43:00,516
He's just super bullish on Bitcoin.

556
00:43:00,516 --> 00:43:03,616
He's a staunch believer in what we're doing here.

557
00:43:03,836 --> 00:43:04,416
Here's the thing.

558
00:43:04,516 --> 00:43:04,856
Here's the thing.

559
00:43:04,976 --> 00:43:13,556
Even if it goes back to the trend in gold, that's already back to the 90th percentile in dollar terms.

560
00:43:14,136 --> 00:43:14,316
Okay?

561
00:43:14,796 --> 00:43:15,436
You follow me?

562
00:43:16,256 --> 00:43:16,356
Yeah.

563
00:43:16,356 --> 00:43:28,036
So if I – too many charts here, but look, we're only at a 20% discount.

564
00:43:28,036 --> 00:43:31,476
well, let's say 30%.

565
00:43:31,476 --> 00:43:35,136
We're at a 30% discount of the trend right now, right?

566
00:43:35,176 --> 00:43:36,056
In dollar terms.

567
00:43:36,756 --> 00:43:40,096
But in, let's just stick with gold, right?

568
00:43:40,156 --> 00:43:42,276
We're getting, we're at a 90% discount.

569
00:43:42,916 --> 00:43:47,076
So if we go back to even the trend,

570
00:43:47,236 --> 00:43:51,696
which is 6,000, sorry, this is silver, isn't it?

571
00:43:51,696 --> 00:43:57,696
If we go back to 65 ounces of gold,

572
00:43:58,036 --> 00:44:07,296
of gold per one Bitcoin, that's 3x, which would mean, I mean, from there, just multiply it,

573
00:44:07,396 --> 00:44:14,116
that's, you're in the, you know, $270,000 price range, which would put us back in the 90th

574
00:44:14,116 --> 00:44:18,836
percentile. That's just how the simple math works. Do I think that's going to happen? I have no idea.

575
00:44:19,496 --> 00:44:25,616
But I would say, even getting to the gold and silver highs, that would, that's a pretty,

576
00:44:25,616 --> 00:44:29,176
wild bet. I mean, what did you guys bet?

577
00:44:30,796 --> 00:44:32,736
I gave him two to one odds, 100,000

578
00:44:32,736 --> 00:44:37,216
sats. Yeah, I got to be with you on that one. But regardless,

579
00:44:37,456 --> 00:44:41,096
even if it goes back to the trend and we don't make new all-time highs in gold and silver, it still

580
00:44:41,096 --> 00:44:44,376
looks great for Bitcoin in dollar terms. You'd be back at this level.

581
00:44:44,856 --> 00:44:45,836
You'd be back at the nine.

582
00:44:48,136 --> 00:44:52,496
Yeah. So we'll see. That's another, you know, we didn't really talk about it. I sort of danced around

583
00:44:52,496 --> 00:45:00,556
the issue. I'm still leaving. I was always kind of a cycle guy. I was really thinking that on my

584
00:45:00,556 --> 00:45:07,476
podcast, I'd be just enjoying counting how many days would be above this nine this last fall.

585
00:45:07,956 --> 00:45:12,896
I thought it would happen. We would make it there. And obviously, we didn't. There's all

586
00:45:12,896 --> 00:45:22,096
sorts of people theorizing why. Is it institutional adoption? Not using the chain as much? All sorts

587
00:45:22,096 --> 00:45:31,436
of reasons. It's quantum. Yes, quantum risk, of course. We got to remember that one. Nothing to

588
00:45:31,436 --> 00:45:35,716
take too light of, of course. There are people working on that, but this is something that I've

589
00:45:35,716 --> 00:45:43,216
heard as long as I've been in Bitcoin with the quantum risk. I still think the cyclicality of

590
00:45:43,216 --> 00:45:51,956
Bitcoin is in play here, but we're going to have to see. So I'm thinking it's, I would still

591
00:45:51,956 --> 00:46:00,876
brace yourself for a soft year. Might not be as soft or as bad as, you know, prior cycles every

592
00:46:00,876 --> 00:46:08,156
four years, but I would, I would, I would hold on a little bit before calling the cycles completely

593
00:46:08,156 --> 00:46:12,636
dead. But that's just me. So freaks, when you take Bitcoin seriously, you start with custody.

594
00:46:12,636 --> 00:46:16,196
You want to control your keys, avoid single points of failure, and make sure your savings

595
00:46:16,196 --> 00:46:19,316
cannot disappear because you or someone else screwed up. That is what Unchained has been

596
00:46:19,316 --> 00:46:23,656
focused on since 2016. Unchained is the leader in collaborative multi-sig custody and Bitcoin

597
00:46:23,656 --> 00:46:28,356
financial services that keep you in control. They secure over $12 billion in Bitcoin for more than

598
00:46:28,356 --> 00:46:33,216
12,000 clients. That means about one out of every 200 Bitcoin sits inside an Unchained vault.

599
00:46:33,376 --> 00:46:37,356
Their model is simple. You hold two keys, they hold one key. It always takes two keys to move

600
00:46:37,356 --> 00:46:41,256
Bitcoin, meaning their single key can't access your Bitcoin on its own. Just resilient, shared

601
00:46:41,256 --> 00:46:44,616
custody that gives you institutional-grade security while keeping you sovereign. Unchained

602
00:46:44,616 --> 00:46:48,276
also lets you trade straight from your vault. Access Bitcoin-backed commercial loans, open a

603
00:46:48,276 --> 00:46:52,976
Bitcoin IRA where you hold your own keys and set up personal, business, trust, or retirement vaults.

604
00:46:53,056 --> 00:46:57,516
They even offer inheritance solutions built for long-term hodlers. Or opt for the highest level

605
00:46:57,516 --> 00:47:01,576
private client service with Unchained Signature and get a dedicated account manager, discounted

606
00:47:01,576 --> 00:47:05,576
trading fees, exclusive access to events and features, and much, much more. If you want a

607
00:47:05,576 --> 00:47:09,816
partner that helps you secure and grow your Bitcoin without giving up control, go to unchained.com

608
00:47:09,816 --> 00:47:14,856
and use the code TFTC10 at checkout to get 10% off your new Bitcoin multisig vault. That's

609
00:47:14,856 --> 00:47:17,256
tftc10 at unchained.com.

610
00:47:17,376 --> 00:47:17,916
What's up, freaks?

611
00:47:18,816 --> 00:47:20,176
Been seeing a lot of YouTube comments.

612
00:47:20,276 --> 00:47:21,476
Marty, your skin looks so good.

613
00:47:21,696 --> 00:47:23,076
You're looking fit these days.

614
00:47:24,276 --> 00:47:25,176
How are you doing it?

615
00:47:25,236 --> 00:47:26,636
Well, number one, I'm going to the gym more.

616
00:47:27,396 --> 00:47:28,336
Trying to get my swell on.

617
00:47:29,376 --> 00:47:32,376
Trying to be a good example for my young son.

618
00:47:32,456 --> 00:47:34,296
It's a fit, healthy dad.

619
00:47:34,336 --> 00:47:36,336
But part of that is having a good regimen,

620
00:47:36,436 --> 00:47:37,436
particularly staying hydrated,

621
00:47:37,436 --> 00:47:40,356
making sure I have the right electrolytes

622
00:47:40,356 --> 00:47:41,216
and salts in my body.

623
00:47:41,456 --> 00:47:42,996
That is why I use salt of the earth.

624
00:47:42,996 --> 00:47:48,616
I drink probably three of these a day with one packet of salt of the earth.

625
00:47:48,716 --> 00:47:50,056
I'm liking the pink lemonade right now.

626
00:47:50,176 --> 00:47:51,456
It's my flavor of choice.

627
00:47:52,456 --> 00:47:53,596
This is their creatine.

628
00:47:53,736 --> 00:47:54,796
I've added this to my regiment.

629
00:47:54,956 --> 00:47:56,696
They have it in these packets as well.

630
00:47:57,456 --> 00:47:59,536
Makes it extremely convenient if you're traveling.

631
00:47:59,676 --> 00:48:04,756
You want to work out while you're traveling, but you don't want to be carrying a white bag of powder going through TSA.

632
00:48:05,016 --> 00:48:07,916
It's very, very nerve wracking at times.

633
00:48:07,976 --> 00:48:08,776
You have to explain hates.

634
00:48:08,936 --> 00:48:10,136
It's not what you think it is.

635
00:48:10,156 --> 00:48:10,696
It's creatine.

636
00:48:10,696 --> 00:48:11,796
I'm trying to get my swell on.

637
00:48:12,996 --> 00:48:14,316
Make sure you're staying hydrated.

638
00:48:15,116 --> 00:48:17,056
I have become addicted to these.

639
00:48:17,176 --> 00:48:20,176
It's made my life a lot better.

640
00:48:20,596 --> 00:48:24,576
I can supplement this for coffee in the morning and be energized right away.

641
00:48:25,056 --> 00:48:25,856
I can supplement.

642
00:48:26,396 --> 00:48:28,556
I can bring the koreatine wherever I need to.

643
00:48:28,616 --> 00:48:31,556
Just put a couple packets in here before I head to the gym.

644
00:48:31,696 --> 00:48:33,436
Bring this to the gym, drink it out of a glass bottle.

645
00:48:33,556 --> 00:48:37,216
Make sure I'm not injecting any microplastics into my body.

646
00:48:37,216 --> 00:48:43,316
Go to drinkssauté.com, use the code TFTC, and you'll get 15% off anything in the store.

647
00:48:43,516 --> 00:48:45,736
That's drinkssauté.com, code TFTC.

648
00:48:46,236 --> 00:48:51,456
You're a big believer in that McQuinton adoption,

649
00:48:51,936 --> 00:48:58,096
and therefore its price appreciation is uncorrelated from any external variables and factors.

650
00:48:58,676 --> 00:49:02,456
This is a power trend adoption curve, network adoption.

651
00:49:03,636 --> 00:49:04,896
But you got to ask.

652
00:49:04,896 --> 00:49:07,036
going back to that Fed chart that you posted

653
00:49:07,036 --> 00:49:08,076
and starting to tilt up

654
00:49:08,076 --> 00:49:09,596
how much could

655
00:49:09,596 --> 00:49:13,076
do you think the animal spirits are just

656
00:49:13,076 --> 00:49:14,916
waiting for liquidity bazooka to

657
00:49:14,916 --> 00:49:17,256
basically ride a

658
00:49:17,256 --> 00:49:17,596
wave

659
00:49:17,596 --> 00:49:19,556
so here is

660
00:49:19,556 --> 00:49:23,156
a little

661
00:49:23,156 --> 00:49:23,976
sneak peek on

662
00:49:23,976 --> 00:49:27,076
I'm going to get some people have been asking

663
00:49:27,076 --> 00:49:29,256
all the time you know when can I get

664
00:49:29,256 --> 00:49:31,256
my charts and stuff and I'm going to have

665
00:49:31,256 --> 00:49:33,256
a good app coming out in the next

666
00:49:33,256 --> 00:49:37,616
couple of months. A little sneak peek of what I'm getting to. It's a little bit different setup than

667
00:49:37,616 --> 00:49:45,756
my current charts. You know, I've been following this monetary-based stuff for eight years. And

668
00:49:45,756 --> 00:49:52,536
if I would admit it, if I thought that there was a direct correlation between the money supply

669
00:49:52,536 --> 00:49:57,456
and the Bitcoin price, I just don't see it. I think the better way to look at the Bitcoin price

670
00:49:57,456 --> 00:50:03,236
precisely is taking these percentiles around the power curve, which is clearly a great R-square

671
00:50:03,236 --> 00:50:07,916
network adoption. It doesn't tell you when they will hit. It just tells you when you reach an

672
00:50:07,916 --> 00:50:12,836
extreme, that's an extreme level of risk relative to the trend. So you might want to pay attention

673
00:50:12,836 --> 00:50:18,636
if you believe in the trend. So we're hitting that extreme level of risk right now for silver bugs.

674
00:50:19,656 --> 00:50:25,096
Like you might not get an opportunity to buy Bitcoin this cheap again relative to the trend.

675
00:50:26,656 --> 00:50:31,576
786 ounces of silver for Bitcoin. You know, 10 years ago is 30 ounces. Do you really want to,

676
00:50:31,576 --> 00:50:37,216
you know, keep playing that game. Okay. So back to the point, this is the world's base money.

677
00:50:37,756 --> 00:50:43,156
I have it like going way back even for the federal reserve, but let's not focus on that. So

678
00:50:43,156 --> 00:50:55,156
let's go from here. And here we have bitcoins. So I have two different things here. I'm showing

679
00:50:55,156 --> 00:51:02,036
the the us right in the light green and the rest of the world in the darker green this is

680
00:51:03,076 --> 00:51:07,316
us dollar equivalent although of course you can't really see when some people are pumping or not

681
00:51:07,316 --> 00:51:11,476
because there's dollar exchange rates as well so i mean when they're printing a lot but this

682
00:51:11,476 --> 00:51:17,236
you'll generally get the idea okay so it's safe to say in 2013 bitcoin wasn't on the radar of

683
00:51:17,236 --> 00:51:20,916
of anybody's, you know, on anybody's radar.

684
00:51:22,956 --> 00:51:27,516
But both central, both the United States and the world was printing money.

685
00:51:27,816 --> 00:51:30,776
Okay, this is it now, this is the world's printing press, what you see here in green.

686
00:51:31,116 --> 00:51:33,496
So you see the Bitcoin price in 2013 did go up.

687
00:51:33,696 --> 00:51:34,836
Okay, but then of course it went down.

688
00:51:36,136 --> 00:51:39,156
While it went down, the world kept printing.

689
00:51:39,156 --> 00:51:44,456
Notice the Federal Reserve actually stopped about a year later, mid-2014, and then did

690
00:51:44,456 --> 00:51:44,856
not print.

691
00:51:45,516 --> 00:51:48,256
So now I'm looking at the Federal Reserve, that line they're not printing at all.

692
00:51:48,696 --> 00:51:53,236
And then 2017, the price pops, December, Federal Reserve still hasn't printed money.

693
00:51:53,816 --> 00:51:56,696
But worldwide, they were printing money.

694
00:51:56,896 --> 00:51:59,076
So it actually lined up quite nicely worldwide.

695
00:51:59,076 --> 00:52:08,096
And even we're just a few months off, the world tapered off a lot in 2018, all the way

696
00:52:08,096 --> 00:52:12,496
started following the Fed's lead to taper down the money supply, because the Fed was

697
00:52:12,496 --> 00:52:18,336
taper even before this until we had that repo spike, which you talked about in September.

698
00:52:18,616 --> 00:52:23,316
And then, of course, we had the big spike, which masked all of the problems with massive

699
00:52:23,316 --> 00:52:24,376
money printing in 2021.

700
00:52:24,656 --> 00:52:31,816
Okay, so here, indeed, again, Bitcoin's price pumped with a massive amount of money supply.

701
00:52:32,316 --> 00:52:36,676
And then the price went down, and the money supply also went down.

702
00:52:37,216 --> 00:52:38,996
But then here's where the rub is.

703
00:52:38,996 --> 00:52:42,476
Bitcoin price has been going back up for the last three years.

704
00:52:42,476 --> 00:52:44,256
But what has the global money supply been doing?

705
00:52:44,356 --> 00:52:45,656
What is the US money supply been doing?

706
00:52:46,336 --> 00:52:47,256
Hasn't been doing anything.

707
00:52:49,096 --> 00:52:56,896
And so this is, again, where I caution people to sort of time the markets with this money

708
00:52:56,896 --> 00:52:57,396
supply stuff.

709
00:52:57,476 --> 00:52:58,216
I think it's very interesting.

710
00:52:58,496 --> 00:53:03,256
I think, yes, directionally, we're always going to have more money printed from central

711
00:53:03,256 --> 00:53:03,536
banks.

712
00:53:03,576 --> 00:53:04,376
That's all they know how to do.

713
00:53:04,436 --> 00:53:07,416
And Bitcoin correspondingly will rise.

714
00:53:07,416 --> 00:53:14,756
but timing that is very difficult okay so this data i have uh as of september only this is

715
00:53:14,756 --> 00:53:19,356
actually the third quarter update marty i'm gonna explain that as well in a second here it's actually

716
00:53:19,356 --> 00:53:27,176
it's gonna become even that no no we didn't it was second it's gonna become even less uh so so

717
00:53:27,176 --> 00:53:31,616
this is i'll explain in a second the reason why this is uh it's because of the federal reserve

718
00:53:31,616 --> 00:53:39,716
of itself. So as you see here, from the third quarter, from what we have globally, and nothing

719
00:53:39,716 --> 00:53:44,736
really changed in the Fed for sure, and other central banks, Bitcoin price went down as well

720
00:53:44,736 --> 00:53:50,356
during here. So I would really caution people to think that they could time the Bitcoin price based

721
00:53:50,356 --> 00:53:56,196
on the money supply. A lot of people do USM2 a lot. That has nothing to do with anything. USM2 is just

722
00:53:56,196 --> 00:54:06,556
retail deposits that are not checking accounts, you know, demand deposits. But you have M3 money,

723
00:54:06,656 --> 00:54:09,616
you have institutional money, there's a lot of different money here. This is just base money,

724
00:54:09,856 --> 00:54:13,576
which is analogous to Bitcoin, the printing press. And of course, there is like a correlation.

725
00:54:13,576 --> 00:54:20,076
But it's not just lockstep. I mean, Bitcoin screamed in 2017, the Federal Reserve wasn't

726
00:54:20,076 --> 00:54:24,896
doing anything. And no one was paying attention to the world money supply here, except for me.

727
00:54:24,896 --> 00:54:27,336
You know, I just started to build it at this time.

728
00:54:28,036 --> 00:54:41,016
But you can't just say that there's a great correlation, especially when you go to this time after the 2021 print, 2020, 2021 print, when they started to lighten off that Bitcoin still went up.

729
00:54:41,016 --> 00:54:48,316
So the bottom line is the power curve is going to give you a better guide to where Bitcoin should be.

730
00:54:49,276 --> 00:54:57,596
But I would just caution about trying to time the markets based on where M2 goes and where Bitcoin's price is going to go.

731
00:54:57,596 --> 00:55:00,356
Because the money supply could go up.

732
00:55:00,456 --> 00:55:01,336
Bitcoin could also go up.

733
00:55:01,416 --> 00:55:02,356
Money supply could go down.

734
00:55:02,556 --> 00:55:03,396
Bitcoin could also go up.

735
00:55:04,076 --> 00:55:04,976
That's what I would say.

736
00:55:06,336 --> 00:55:08,336
Uncorrelated asset, depending on.

737
00:55:08,336 --> 00:55:13,736
it's over the long term, they're both going to go up. They're both going to go up and Bitcoin

738
00:55:13,736 --> 00:55:17,436
eventually will take over, which as we talked about, if this, you know, when we get to the big

739
00:55:17,436 --> 00:55:21,496
one, when we start to revalue into Bitcoin, that's going to be great. But that time is not now.

740
00:55:22,536 --> 00:55:27,836
And I don't even think it's now for gold, as I showed with the size of the Federal Reserve's

741
00:55:27,836 --> 00:55:32,476
balance sheet compared to the total US national debt. They don't own as much as they, you know,

742
00:55:32,476 --> 00:55:35,416
They own about half of what they did four years ago.

743
00:55:35,976 --> 00:55:38,556
So anyway, that's that point.

744
00:55:38,816 --> 00:55:43,456
Now, on to so many things to show you here.

745
00:55:44,596 --> 00:55:54,016
Why did it take me so long now to release the Q3 numbers is because I want to start to incorporate broad money into this as well.

746
00:55:54,096 --> 00:55:56,696
So broad money has these things like M2, M3.

747
00:55:56,696 --> 00:56:01,696
But the Federal Reserve, they don't publish broad money anymore.

748
00:56:02,476 --> 00:56:04,136
So you have to back into it.

749
00:56:04,176 --> 00:56:07,896
You have to look at different exhibits that they publish.

750
00:56:08,556 --> 00:56:09,856
And they're so slow now.

751
00:56:09,956 --> 00:56:10,936
They've gotten even worse.

752
00:56:11,016 --> 00:56:12,696
I don't know if it's like a Trump thing or whatever.

753
00:56:12,876 --> 00:56:14,656
Like it's way slow.

754
00:56:15,636 --> 00:56:19,476
And to get all the data that I needed for Q3,

755
00:56:19,476 --> 00:56:22,616
I had to wait until just like two weeks ago, January.

756
00:56:23,636 --> 00:56:26,376
So I actually, you know,

757
00:56:26,616 --> 00:56:28,416
people like following my stuff for the money supply.

758
00:56:28,556 --> 00:56:30,256
I want to get it even sort of more locked down.

759
00:56:30,256 --> 00:56:42,816
I think it'll be even more insightful, actually, if you look further back with sort of a clear view of what was the total money supply and then maybe see what Bitcoin did or what gold did after that.

760
00:56:44,196 --> 00:56:47,416
So anyway, that's kind of the main reason why I held off.

761
00:56:48,496 --> 00:56:52,436
But over $37 trillion.

762
00:56:53,376 --> 00:56:53,516
Yeah.

763
00:56:54,256 --> 00:56:58,196
I was going to say, how are you backing into these M2, M3 metrics?

764
00:56:58,776 --> 00:56:59,056
Right.

765
00:56:59,056 --> 00:57:04,676
So there are various accounts of the United States the Federal Reserve still publishes.

766
00:57:06,116 --> 00:57:11,356
Those include things that were typically in M3, like the value of repurchase agreements,

767
00:57:12,616 --> 00:57:18,236
the value of institutional money market funds, and institutional time deposits.

768
00:57:18,736 --> 00:57:20,276
But they're all in different ways.

769
00:57:20,476 --> 00:57:21,736
Some are monthly, some are quarterly.

770
00:57:22,376 --> 00:57:23,936
You have to sort of just sort through it all.

771
00:57:23,936 --> 00:57:30,796
Uh, and then there, of course, there is a caveat here that the, there's another traditional

772
00:57:30,796 --> 00:57:36,056
component of M3, which is the Euro dollar, which is offshore dollars, which could be

773
00:57:36,056 --> 00:57:37,336
huge on top of that.

774
00:57:37,396 --> 00:57:38,176
I don't have that at all.

775
00:57:38,516 --> 00:57:43,396
So the Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 here in February, 2006.

776
00:57:44,156 --> 00:57:48,996
And even the number that they published in February, 2006 did not match my number.

777
00:57:49,576 --> 00:57:51,736
Uh, you know, mine is higher.

778
00:57:51,736 --> 00:57:56,156
theirs is like something like 10 billion this is higher than 10 billion i should have actually

779
00:57:56,156 --> 00:58:04,556
the full title it's full total here but it's whatever call it uh 11 and a half or 12 billion

780
00:58:04,556 --> 00:58:12,416
at the time all right now we're over 37 sorry uh 11 and a half trillion at the time in 2006

781
00:58:12,416 --> 00:58:19,556
not billion now we're at over 37 trillion and all i'll say about this chart is first of all again

782
00:58:19,556 --> 00:58:23,156
understand there is an M3 money supply, even though the Federal Reserve doesn't publish it,

783
00:58:23,636 --> 00:58:29,036
even though all you see are these wild M2 charts, which a lot of people don't know they revalued.

784
00:58:30,676 --> 00:58:35,076
For legal reasons, they're not even comparable with the old ones. You'll see like this M1 and

785
00:58:35,076 --> 00:58:39,456
M2 chart in 2020, like shoot way up. It's not more money printing. It's them just,

786
00:58:39,456 --> 00:58:44,596
they're so stupid. I don't know why they don't like make this more clear, but they're just

787
00:58:44,596 --> 00:58:51,816
reclassifying certain things that were in M1 before, now in M2. It's a complete mess.

788
00:58:52,436 --> 00:58:56,716
So to make everything backwards compatible, you have to work through it. So I have this for you.

789
00:58:56,716 --> 00:59:03,316
This will be available as well when I get my new data engine running for folks.

790
00:59:04,396 --> 00:59:09,416
Can you explain to us why bank reserves and bulk cash are negative $3 trillion right now?

791
00:59:09,416 --> 00:59:12,636
Yeah, so I should just take that off.

792
00:59:13,216 --> 00:59:18,776
That's the reason it's negative is just to show it's part of the money supply, but that's stuff that we can't hold.

793
00:59:18,976 --> 00:59:20,216
It's banks, banks holding.

794
00:59:20,996 --> 00:59:21,776
I'll get to it.

795
00:59:21,856 --> 00:59:23,076
I should just take that off and look here.

796
00:59:24,156 --> 00:59:26,536
So, yeah, thanks.

797
00:59:26,636 --> 00:59:27,116
That's a good point.

798
00:59:27,596 --> 00:59:30,256
So the one thing I just want to say about the supply is, yes, it's growing.

799
00:59:30,536 --> 00:59:31,396
This is how it looks.

800
00:59:32,356 --> 00:59:33,836
There's euro dollars on top of it.

801
00:59:33,936 --> 00:59:35,316
So we have to think about that.

802
00:59:35,316 --> 00:59:38,616
money market funds

803
00:59:38,616 --> 00:59:39,896
they're kind of like a stable coin

804
00:59:39,896 --> 00:59:41,876
so that's not a huge

805
00:59:41,876 --> 00:59:44,416
balance in the crypto

806
00:59:44,416 --> 00:59:46,136
world today only like $300 billion

807
00:59:46,136 --> 00:59:46,796
it'll share the yield with you though

808
00:59:46,796 --> 00:59:49,456
they will share the yield

809
00:59:49,456 --> 00:59:50,756
they will share the yield

810
00:59:50,756 --> 00:59:55,036
caution

811
00:59:55,036 --> 00:59:56,096
caution

812
00:59:56,096 --> 00:59:57,396
that's all I can say

813
00:59:57,396 --> 00:59:59,556
well no I mean dive in it

814
00:59:59,556 --> 01:00:01,096
it is pretty topical right now

815
01:00:01,096 --> 01:00:02,836
it's a big battle here in the United States

816
01:00:02,836 --> 01:00:09,096
It's about being able to share stable coin yield between the banks and Coinbase and others.

817
01:00:09,796 --> 01:00:09,996
Yeah.

818
01:00:10,836 --> 01:00:13,316
I heard Novogratz talking to Scaramucci about that.

819
01:00:13,656 --> 01:00:20,256
I mean, obviously, Novogratz is a big shit coiner, but he's also lobbying in pretty in-depth in the process.

820
01:00:20,256 --> 01:00:29,616
And as he was saying, he said, generally, it's a bipartisan issue and people are going to be on board with it.

821
01:00:29,616 --> 01:00:32,656
But at the end of the day, look, it's just another revenue.

822
01:00:33,896 --> 01:00:39,336
Or sorry, it's another product that banks could use.

823
01:00:39,536 --> 01:00:43,036
They're worried about like capital flight or whatever from their demand deposits.

824
01:00:43,356 --> 01:00:48,796
But if it's a stable coin and they can offer that product, there are plenty of ways to

825
01:00:48,796 --> 01:00:52,196
generate loans or capital on top of that.

826
01:00:52,436 --> 01:00:54,716
So I don't see it as being a very different thing.

827
01:00:54,716 --> 01:00:59,496
If the CBDC was really taking off, that would cause concern.

828
01:00:59,616 --> 01:01:02,976
which is why it's not being launched because then that could be direct capital

829
01:01:02,976 --> 01:01:05,476
flight competition with your checking deposit,

830
01:01:05,476 --> 01:01:08,236
which banks wouldn't have an opportunity to,

831
01:01:08,236 --> 01:01:09,856
you know,

832
01:01:09,856 --> 01:01:11,176
to partake in because it was CBDC,

833
01:01:11,756 --> 01:01:13,496
which is why all the socialists want to do a CBDC.

834
01:01:14,156 --> 01:01:17,176
And this is why also why the United States is not doing it.

835
01:01:17,336 --> 01:01:20,676
So it's going to grow.

836
01:01:20,796 --> 01:01:22,076
It's going to grow for sure.

837
01:01:22,456 --> 01:01:24,876
You see all the debt that the United States has,

838
01:01:25,016 --> 01:01:28,156
it's stable coins could take part in that,

839
01:01:28,296 --> 01:01:28,616
but,

840
01:01:29,616 --> 01:01:34,456
it's going to be unsustainable at some point.

841
01:01:34,576 --> 01:01:36,556
I do think it's going to be an unsustainable system.

842
01:01:38,256 --> 01:01:39,996
And as Bitcoin,

843
01:01:40,136 --> 01:01:42,716
but I think we're going to start really start to see the effects of that like

844
01:01:42,716 --> 01:01:43,476
10 years from now,

845
01:01:43,576 --> 01:01:43,756
10,

846
01:01:43,856 --> 01:01:44,576
15 years from now,

847
01:01:44,576 --> 01:01:49,196
because Bitcoin is going to grow way faster than those asset classes are.

848
01:01:49,196 --> 01:01:51,536
Like even as insane as this chart looks right here,

849
01:01:51,976 --> 01:01:52,116
you know,

850
01:01:52,156 --> 01:01:54,096
it grows in less than 10% a year,

851
01:01:54,696 --> 01:01:54,936
you know,

852
01:01:55,296 --> 01:01:56,016
closer to seven,

853
01:01:56,196 --> 01:01:56,976
8% a year.

854
01:01:56,976 --> 01:02:00,856
Why do you think it's going to be unsustainable stablecoin markets?

855
01:02:01,716 --> 01:02:03,296
Because they're exponential.

856
01:02:05,336 --> 01:02:06,516
Stablecoins take yield.

857
01:02:06,736 --> 01:02:08,796
Yield is a compounding asset.

858
01:02:09,516 --> 01:02:10,796
Compounding assets are exponential.

859
01:02:11,196 --> 01:02:13,216
Exponential assets are typically unsustainable.

860
01:02:13,296 --> 01:02:14,356
It goes back to the power curve.

861
01:02:15,076 --> 01:02:16,196
Even just take the silver price.

862
01:02:16,496 --> 01:02:18,496
As you saw here, right?

863
01:02:19,616 --> 01:02:24,776
As you correctly pointed out, not a great overall trend line.

864
01:02:24,776 --> 01:02:38,694
3 per year a little bit more 3 per year When you have an exponentially growing asset and all financial assets are exponentially growing all financial assets are exponentially growing you get a straight line on log scale

865
01:02:41,614 --> 01:02:48,214
I mean, I don't know what an unsustainable market looks like other than this chart.

866
01:02:48,214 --> 01:02:58,314
I mean, it goes to, you know, silver being $1 in 1971, goes, you know, to $42 in 1980.

867
01:02:58,494 --> 01:03:01,454
Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market, completely fails, going to a 20-year bear.

868
01:03:02,634 --> 01:03:05,374
Not exactly correlating with gold, but pretty close.

869
01:03:05,974 --> 01:03:12,794
Goes down to $5, even $4 in 2001, then goes up to $50 again in April 2011.

870
01:03:14,274 --> 01:03:16,054
Down again, and then here we are.

871
01:03:16,054 --> 01:03:24,874
over $100 people calling for $200, $500 silver. There's a lot of speculation. There's a lot of

872
01:03:24,874 --> 01:03:32,694
talk about revaluing other underlying assets that use this, right? Like silver mines or silver

873
01:03:32,694 --> 01:03:40,934
companies. And it's just the nature of compound interest and debt is that you get these booms and

874
01:03:40,934 --> 01:03:46,574
busts. But here's the really interesting thing is that Bitcoin does not follow that, whether you

875
01:03:46,574 --> 01:03:57,414
price it in silver, whether you price it in gold, or you price it in dollars. So Bitcoin, this is

876
01:03:57,414 --> 01:04:01,694
actually a really good thing. People always wonder about the power curve, or they don't sort of

877
01:04:01,694 --> 01:04:08,334
exactly understand what it means. It just means that for Bitcoin will still continue to do things

878
01:04:08,334 --> 01:04:15,594
like double according to a formula, but it would just take longer to double, which actually is a

879
01:04:15,594 --> 01:04:22,014
good thing. That's how networks scale. So like the 2080 rule is kind of, is a part of this. And

880
01:04:22,014 --> 01:04:28,174
I've used the example, I'm sure on your podcast before is, you know, a network. If you just look

881
01:04:28,174 --> 01:04:35,394
at networks like nodes and traffic, you would have a power law is something where you have a few large

882
01:04:35,394 --> 01:04:39,894
nodes with many connections, and then you have many, many small nodes with few connections.

883
01:04:40,114 --> 01:04:45,414
That's a power law. That's power law relationship. And that's how Bitcoin scales as well. But the

884
01:04:45,414 --> 01:04:51,234
wild thing is it does that even in time. It does that with its price. And so I would say Bitcoin

885
01:04:51,234 --> 01:04:59,634
is a way better bet over the long run because it exhibits this sustainable growth. Technically,

886
01:04:59,634 --> 01:05:04,954
yeah, exponential curves are faster. They grow faster, but they're also very unsustainable.

887
01:05:05,394 --> 01:05:12,394
And they tend to be below 10% per year in their booms.

888
01:05:12,394 --> 01:05:15,474
Of course, if actual price inflation gets more than 10%

889
01:05:15,474 --> 01:05:18,634
a year, gets galloping, then that's a bad thing.

890
01:05:18,634 --> 01:05:21,554
And you also see busts happen even quicker there.

891
01:05:21,554 --> 01:05:24,154
But it's actually just the nature of the thing.

892
01:05:24,154 --> 01:05:27,314
So stocks, gold, bonds, everything,

893
01:05:27,314 --> 01:05:30,114
everything that has a compound return, stablecoin yield,

894
01:05:30,114 --> 01:05:34,074
which is just tying itself to a sovereign yield.

895
01:05:35,394 --> 01:05:42,014
it's unsustainable. I mean, it's, it can go on for a long time, but, and you can get,

896
01:05:42,574 --> 01:05:48,294
even after the bus, you can continue the trend. But the, I guess the better word is to say,

897
01:05:48,354 --> 01:05:53,614
not necessarily always unsustainable, but it's just extremely volatile, right? Which is ironic,

898
01:05:53,614 --> 01:06:02,474
because people say Bitcoin is volatile, but looking at this 96% R squared power trend line,

899
01:06:02,474 --> 01:06:04,714
which I've been tracking since the end of 2018.

900
01:06:05,614 --> 01:06:05,834
All right.

901
01:06:06,294 --> 01:06:08,714
It is incredible.

902
01:06:08,894 --> 01:06:10,334
I mean, you could look at, I can show you a chart

903
01:06:10,334 --> 01:06:14,554
where you plot the same power trend

904
01:06:14,554 --> 01:06:16,414
with only up to 2016 data.

905
01:06:16,414 --> 01:06:18,954
And you're only like a couple thousand dollars off

906
01:06:18,954 --> 01:06:20,734
what this trend line would show

907
01:06:20,734 --> 01:06:23,654
after 10 more years of data.

908
01:06:24,774 --> 01:06:25,554
It's madness.

909
01:06:25,974 --> 01:06:27,574
It's really wild.

910
01:06:27,914 --> 01:06:29,434
And the number, by the way, just to show you,

911
01:06:29,434 --> 01:06:31,034
you have to run and calculate these things,

912
01:06:31,034 --> 01:06:37,474
but basically it's every 12 to 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin will double the price.

913
01:06:38,054 --> 01:06:39,554
That's what Bitcoin currently runs at.

914
01:06:39,914 --> 01:06:45,514
So it's about over 6,000 days of Bitcoin right now.

915
01:06:45,654 --> 01:06:49,314
So 700 days more, roughly two years, price doubles.

916
01:06:50,434 --> 01:06:54,414
And as Bitcoin gets older, the doubling time will take longer,

917
01:06:54,914 --> 01:07:00,954
but that should sound like a more sustainable base for growing things than the other curves.

918
01:07:00,954 --> 01:07:01,834
that we've been talking about.

919
01:07:02,274 --> 01:07:02,794
Does that make sense?

920
01:07:03,774 --> 01:07:04,614
Yes, it does.

921
01:07:04,794 --> 01:07:07,494
And I think, as you're describing this,

922
01:07:07,514 --> 01:07:09,054
obviously we talked about power curve,

923
01:07:09,194 --> 01:07:11,414
network adoption, comparing it to things like the internet.

924
01:07:11,514 --> 01:07:13,094
But I don't think we've ever actually keyed in

925
01:07:13,094 --> 01:07:14,274
on this insight, which is like,

926
01:07:14,334 --> 01:07:17,494
it's so incredibly cool that with this

927
01:07:17,494 --> 01:07:19,674
sort of network adoption that we're observing

928
01:07:19,674 --> 01:07:22,534
within Bitcoin, it has a price attached to it

929
01:07:22,534 --> 01:07:26,214
to express the state of that network adoption,

930
01:07:26,934 --> 01:07:29,614
which is unique in a sense, correct?

931
01:07:29,614 --> 01:07:35,854
I think so. I mean, the internet, right? People were attaching a lot of valuations to it,

932
01:07:36,734 --> 01:07:40,894
usually in an unsustainable way. We saw that with the dot-com boom and bust. And

933
01:07:43,214 --> 01:07:47,454
yeah, I mean, I think people have probably made that observation, but

934
01:07:48,574 --> 01:07:52,094
you know, that this is the first time in history you can actually own a piece of,

935
01:07:52,094 --> 01:07:56,574
you know, a network like globally decentralized where no one had to gatekeep you.

936
01:07:56,574 --> 01:07:59,694
and I think it's incredible.

937
01:07:59,694 --> 01:08:03,134
I mean, like you, man,

938
01:08:03,194 --> 01:08:04,394
I mean, I'm more and more bullish every day.

939
01:08:04,574 --> 01:08:06,354
Keep, you know, not financial advice,

940
01:08:06,534 --> 01:08:07,294
keep some powder dry.

941
01:08:07,374 --> 01:08:08,754
You never know what can happen in the next year.

942
01:08:09,534 --> 01:08:13,714
But this trend is an amazing trend

943
01:08:13,714 --> 01:08:14,394
and it's going to work.

944
01:08:14,494 --> 01:08:15,554
It works across all currencies.

945
01:08:15,674 --> 01:08:16,814
So here's one I wanted to show you.

946
01:08:17,354 --> 01:08:18,574
Let's look at Turkey.

947
01:08:18,934 --> 01:08:19,834
Now let's start with Iran.

948
01:08:20,014 --> 01:08:20,554
I have Iran.

949
01:08:21,514 --> 01:08:23,814
Let's look at Bitcoin priced in Iranian reals.

950
01:08:23,894 --> 01:08:26,514
Pretty poignant topic these days, okay?

951
01:08:26,574 --> 01:08:32,334
so the iranian central bank balance sheet is about 12

952
01:08:32,334 --> 01:08:41,054
quadrillion reals 12 quadrillion that is the iranian and by the way that's like from

953
01:08:41,054 --> 01:08:47,114
seven months ago they you know not only the fact that they cut off the internet but i can never get

954
01:08:47,114 --> 01:08:52,674
on the central bank of iran's website it's like they probably you know they probably mark everyone

955
01:08:52,674 --> 01:08:58,574
is a terrorist or whatever, but I got to use VPNs. But you actually can't get on the website at the

956
01:08:58,574 --> 01:09:06,634
moment, obviously. But this is a rough number. And so this is Bitcoin's value. And if we take

957
01:09:06,634 --> 01:09:11,814
that off, right, that's the value of their balance sheet. And Bitcoin is just towering over it.

958
01:09:12,374 --> 01:09:19,614
And you can do a percentage, run a regression on that percentage. And lo and behold, it's a power

959
01:09:19,614 --> 01:09:26,994
curve as well. So Bitcoin will dominate whatever it, this is your quote right here, Bitcoin will

960
01:09:26,994 --> 01:09:31,274
dominate whatever you compare it to, and the power curve will dominate. So if it's, you know,

961
01:09:31,354 --> 01:09:37,974
the Iranian central bank grows at a very fast exponential rate, a very quickly depreciating

962
01:09:37,974 --> 01:09:43,074
exponential rate. But if you put the Bitcoin market cap against it, it will turn it into a

963
01:09:43,074 --> 01:09:48,974
power curve. So Bitcoin actually dominates the comparison. And look, it's an even better,

964
01:09:48,974 --> 01:09:52,254
It's a better R-squared than the USD price.

965
01:09:52,254 --> 01:09:52,634
It's way tighter.

966
01:09:52,814 --> 01:09:52,894
Yep.

967
01:09:53,854 --> 01:09:55,014
You can look at Turkey.

968
01:09:55,874 --> 01:10:02,094
All right, this one's kind of fun because Erdogan put in a new central.

969
01:10:02,274 --> 01:10:03,514
This is very Trump-like.

970
01:10:03,814 --> 01:10:11,954
He put in a new central bank manager governor right here in 2021 who had the good idea of fighting inflation by dropping interest rates.

971
01:10:12,734 --> 01:10:17,334
This is the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Turkey, or really the monetary base.

972
01:10:17,334 --> 01:10:23,054
So they went from 383 billion lira back in 2021.

973
01:10:23,294 --> 01:10:25,194
Now they have 4.5 trillion.

974
01:10:26,594 --> 01:10:30,194
Bitcoin is worth that much in Turkish lira.

975
01:10:31,454 --> 01:10:35,594
And you look at that, it's a nice 96% R-square powered curve.

976
01:10:35,954 --> 01:10:38,314
Interesting, like I haven't quite looked at this detail.

977
01:10:38,414 --> 01:10:39,654
It's a little bit behind schedule.

978
01:10:41,554 --> 01:10:45,134
Interestingly, somehow the Turkish lira is holding a little bit of value here,

979
01:10:45,194 --> 01:10:47,074
but I'm not worried about it.

980
01:10:47,074 --> 01:10:47,974
It'll pop back up.

981
01:10:51,554 --> 01:10:52,034
Sterling.

982
01:10:53,114 --> 01:10:57,394
Bitcoin, you can actually see when Bitcoin passes the value of sterling right there.

983
01:10:58,174 --> 01:10:58,934
Last year.

984
01:11:00,554 --> 01:11:03,754
No, two years ago at this time, roughly.

985
01:11:04,314 --> 01:11:10,834
We passed the value of the good old Bank of England, the oldest fiat currency still in existence.

986
01:11:11,814 --> 01:11:13,514
That is the cross.

987
01:11:14,014 --> 01:11:15,114
Put it on log scale.

988
01:11:15,954 --> 01:11:17,014
Nice power curve.

989
01:11:17,074 --> 01:11:27,454
so all of these other things if you put them on log scale uh they look like straight lines so let's

990
01:11:27,454 --> 01:11:33,114
take off i should put this the you could draw a curve through that which would be exponential

991
01:11:33,114 --> 01:11:39,574
it'd be a straight line bitcoin does not look like that and it looks like that nice sort of

992
01:11:39,574 --> 01:11:48,834
gentle sloping power curve. And it's actually, I would argue, more sustainable in the long run,

993
01:11:48,834 --> 01:11:55,274
if it takes a little bit longer to get there. So just as an example, we are at 2.5. Well,

994
01:11:55,274 --> 01:11:59,714
let me do this with Europe. I have Europe, I think right here. So here's one where we have

995
01:11:59,714 --> 01:12:06,114
yet to cross ECB's balance sheet. Notice how this is another thing where you have to always

996
01:12:06,114 --> 01:12:11,854
adjust the September levels with current levels. So you see the ECB, just like the Fed,

997
01:12:11,854 --> 01:12:17,274
is starting to pump just a little bit, just a little bit, right, from the low back in August.

998
01:12:18,754 --> 01:12:27,194
Way lower than it was in 2022, just like the Fed. Okay. Six trillion euros is a monetary base of

999
01:12:27,194 --> 01:12:34,574
Europe, Bitcoin in, of the Eurozone, I should say. Bitcoin in Europe, in euro terms is 1.5 trillion.

1000
01:12:34,574 --> 01:12:42,554
Bitcoin dominates it, turns into a power law. Like most things, a little bit behind schedule,

1001
01:12:42,854 --> 01:12:46,174
not like all currencies, but like a lot of them, it's a little bit behind schedule at the moment.

1002
01:12:47,374 --> 01:12:56,454
And here's something to keep in mind. So look at how the curve is 0.38x, right? So we are

1003
01:12:56,454 --> 01:13:01,634
at 0.2x. I should take that to two decimals, but we're roughly 20% of the balance sheet at the

1004
01:13:01,634 --> 01:13:08,594
moment, the curve is 40%. So we actually should be higher a little bit behind schedule. But look

1005
01:13:08,594 --> 01:13:12,994
at how it just sort of nice gradual growth. And we get to 100% by the end of the decade.

1006
01:13:13,614 --> 01:13:21,054
Sounds reasonable, could be faster, who knows. But it just has this nice growth. But notice how

1007
01:13:21,054 --> 01:13:29,574
the power curve will be way quicker. If it's just a much shittier balance sheet. So like with with

1008
01:13:29,574 --> 01:13:35,014
the RON, for example, where it's already at, you actually have better to look at this on linear

1009
01:13:35,014 --> 01:13:47,654
scale. See it, we're at 192 times the central bank of the RON's balance sheet. We actually had a

1010
01:13:47,654 --> 01:13:56,174
schedule 165x would be the trend. And, you know, by the end of the decade, the trend is going to be

1011
01:13:56,174 --> 01:14:02,194
700 times the central bank of Iran's balance sheet. What I'm trying to show you is that

1012
01:14:02,194 --> 01:14:06,674
you got to look at this thing through different lenses. Like we always look at it as far as the

1013
01:14:06,674 --> 01:14:11,114
dollar goes. Like you said, you hit it with a stick, do more. It is doing a lot. You're just

1014
01:14:11,114 --> 01:14:16,394
not looking at the right lens. Like in a weak currency, Bitcoin is just destroying it,

1015
01:14:16,814 --> 01:14:21,594
absolutely dominating. And yeah, with the larger currencies, the growth will be slower,

1016
01:14:21,594 --> 01:14:30,254
It would be slower, but it's still close to double the Sterling balance sheet.

1017
01:14:30,434 --> 01:14:33,134
And by the end of the decade, it's going to be 10 times the size of Sterling.

1018
01:14:34,594 --> 01:14:35,474
That's how it works.

1019
01:14:36,774 --> 01:14:44,374
That's what I was going to say is going through this exercise and pulling up all these different power curves in different currencies, different metals.

1020
01:14:44,374 --> 01:14:51,614
really highlights the comparative advantages and disadvantages

1021
01:14:51,614 --> 01:14:55,194
that the different fiat currencies have.

1022
01:14:55,674 --> 01:14:59,454
Like the fact that the Bitcoin power curve and sterling

1023
01:14:59,454 --> 01:15:03,954
and Iranian real and Turkish lira is as tight as it is.

1024
01:15:03,954 --> 01:15:07,074
If you were to just look at the U.S. dollar power curve,

1025
01:15:07,114 --> 01:15:08,394
you'd be like, oh, what's going on?

1026
01:15:08,654 --> 01:15:13,714
And funnily enough, it does sort of give a hat tip to Brent Johnson

1027
01:15:13,714 --> 01:15:16,174
in his dollar milkshake theory a bit,

1028
01:15:16,514 --> 01:15:20,574
sort of being expressed in these Bitcoin power curve charts.

1029
01:15:22,734 --> 01:15:25,574
Wasn't that Snyder?

1030
01:15:25,614 --> 01:15:26,034
It was Brent Jones.

1031
01:15:26,034 --> 01:15:26,894
Originally Campbell Snyder.

1032
01:15:26,994 --> 01:15:28,814
Jeff Snyder, I always interchanged the two.

1033
01:15:29,094 --> 01:15:30,174
Okay, gotcha.

1034
01:15:32,574 --> 01:15:36,914
Yeah, so yeah, it's going to take time,

1035
01:15:37,574 --> 01:15:40,594
but there's a lot happening behind the scenes,

1036
01:15:40,594 --> 01:15:46,114
And the fact that it keeps growing like this wonderful sort of network theory, I'd say, is a really, really good thing.

1037
01:15:46,154 --> 01:15:48,674
And like you said, first time we can own, really, truly own a network.

1038
01:15:49,514 --> 01:15:51,554
Here's an interesting one, in my opinion.

1039
01:15:52,114 --> 01:15:57,734
I wanted to show you sort of, I would take this as an optimistic thing.

1040
01:15:57,894 --> 01:16:04,674
I know people in the United States, it's pretty polarized right now, to say the least from what I see on Twitter.

1041
01:16:05,734 --> 01:16:06,634
Everything's great over here.

1042
01:16:07,054 --> 01:16:07,774
Yeah, sure, sure.

1043
01:16:07,774 --> 01:16:14,734
assuming assuming the united states stays free and i really hope it does and i think that it will uh

1044
01:16:17,694 --> 01:16:22,334
we're you know it would have been bad we were really worried over here about greenland if

1045
01:16:22,334 --> 01:16:28,894
you're taking greenland that would have been a problem for uh for for international peace of

1046
01:16:28,894 --> 01:16:37,294
accords but you know it's tenuous time don't think for a minute you know the trolls in the

1047
01:16:37,294 --> 01:16:43,294
russian uh disinformation farms the chinese disinformation farms don't want to stir dissent

1048
01:16:43,294 --> 01:16:48,494
in the free world but here is this is not the total monetary base a little bit less right

1049
01:16:48,494 --> 01:16:51,854
because we got up to actually 30 trillion here you see we're at like 27 and a half

1050
01:16:52,654 --> 01:16:57,454
and again i need a total column but um you can just see it in the axis

1051
01:16:58,894 --> 01:17:04,314
To me, this is actually optimistic, right?

1052
01:17:04,734 --> 01:17:16,474
So Syria, Venezuela, we're going to see, but it's like dictator bingo going to Moscow or being extradited in one way or another these days.

1053
01:17:16,734 --> 01:17:17,574
It's very, very good.

1054
01:17:18,274 --> 01:17:21,714
And Iran is a wild card.

1055
01:17:21,714 --> 01:17:22,094
We'll see.

1056
01:17:22,194 --> 01:17:28,634
I mean, there might still be something happening there with the aircraft carriers moving towards the region, I guess, as we speak, but we'll see.

1057
01:17:28,894 --> 01:17:39,134
even with the old shitty fiat money barometer,

1058
01:17:39,634 --> 01:17:43,834
the free world has a large share.

1059
01:17:44,394 --> 01:17:44,534
Okay.

1060
01:17:44,854 --> 01:17:47,694
So as you see here, we got the United States down here.

1061
01:17:47,894 --> 01:17:51,294
We got all NATO members that are not the United States here.

1062
01:17:51,694 --> 01:17:52,474
Got Japan.

1063
01:17:52,934 --> 01:17:56,234
And then you got a bunch of, as I would say,

1064
01:17:56,234 --> 01:18:01,674
important countries in Asia, you know, Oceania, we got Australia, Korea, Taiwan, and then of course,

1065
01:18:01,734 --> 01:18:06,754
Ukraine, I got to put on there. And then you have on the other side, you have China, Russia, Iran.

1066
01:18:07,794 --> 01:18:12,414
So another one I wanted to show you is let's look at that's the same chart, but now this is a

1067
01:18:12,414 --> 01:18:18,334
percentage. All right. So let's even zoom in, because I don't have the Soviet Union data. So

1068
01:18:18,334 --> 01:18:21,734
it's going to be a little bit better to just zoom in.

1069
01:18:21,734 --> 01:18:33,374
really the best that they were looking was just before the gfc it's for the global financial

1070
01:18:33,374 --> 01:18:39,674
crisis and something to keep in mind even here you know russia was exporting a lot and doing a lot of

1071
01:18:39,674 --> 01:18:44,474
deals weaponizing energy which they've been doing all the time even the soviet union

1072
01:18:44,474 --> 01:18:53,314
as a share of their central bank money, it went from 4%, even actually 4.8% in 2007.

1073
01:18:53,774 --> 01:18:56,554
By 2009, they had shrunk to under 2%.

1074
01:18:56,554 --> 01:18:58,754
And okay, that might not seem like a lot.

1075
01:18:58,834 --> 01:19:03,654
Whatever China's growing during this period, other people are suffering too.

1076
01:19:03,654 --> 01:19:09,694
But I think this is kind of an interesting way to look at it, you know, as sort of we go through

1077
01:19:09,694 --> 01:19:18,494
the wild Twitter headlines or tweets that come up every day and sort of divide us.

1078
01:19:20,014 --> 01:19:26,174
I am all for a free and democratic world. I think that Bitcoin is going to be a part of that.

1079
01:19:26,914 --> 01:19:32,234
But even here, just look at how small Iran and Russia are, literally. I mean,

1080
01:19:32,254 --> 01:19:36,234
I showed you the chart against Bitcoin, but monetarily. And by the way, this Iran thing

1081
01:19:36,234 --> 01:19:38,174
is even way inflated because I'm using official numbers.

1082
01:19:39,274 --> 01:19:40,334
The other chart I was showing you

1083
01:19:40,334 --> 01:19:42,454
before was black market, so I got to update

1084
01:19:42,454 --> 01:19:44,334
that. Iran is even less. It's under

1085
01:19:44,334 --> 01:19:46,434
well under a percent

1086
01:19:46,434 --> 01:19:48,234
here, probably like half a percent

1087
01:19:48,234 --> 01:19:50,114
of this total.

1088
01:19:52,594 --> 01:19:54,354
It's really just China. I'm keeping

1089
01:19:54,354 --> 01:19:55,394
India off here because

1090
01:19:55,394 --> 01:19:58,414
they're kind of gray. They could go

1091
01:19:58,414 --> 01:20:00,374
either way, let's say, but if you just sort of look at

1092
01:20:00,374 --> 01:20:02,314
the total free world,

1093
01:20:03,214 --> 01:20:04,314
even after

1094
01:20:04,314 --> 01:20:05,874
all the madness that happened with

1095
01:20:06,234 --> 01:20:08,734
COVID and a little bit on a decline now.

1096
01:20:09,374 --> 01:20:13,694
You know, it's less than a third of this makeup.

1097
01:20:14,274 --> 01:20:16,714
And I hope the U.S. can stay free.

1098
01:20:17,114 --> 01:20:18,294
Looks pretty wild at the moment.

1099
01:20:18,934 --> 01:20:19,254
I don't know.

1100
01:20:19,294 --> 01:20:21,774
You tell me if you think elections are going to happen in the fall or not.

1101
01:20:22,474 --> 01:20:30,654
But I generally think the world wants more freedom.

1102
01:20:30,954 --> 01:20:31,814
We should always support it.

1103
01:20:32,114 --> 01:20:35,594
There's a lot of people that want to make Americans mad with platforms,

1104
01:20:35,594 --> 01:20:40,374
by the way, that are completely banned in China and Russia. I mean, if that doesn't make you laugh,

1105
01:20:40,874 --> 01:20:46,394
that Twitter is banned in Russia. And there are like propagandists on, you know, from Russia,

1106
01:20:47,014 --> 01:20:52,934
tweeting, like, you know, state run media people. I don't know what will make you laugh. But

1107
01:20:52,934 --> 01:20:59,674
there's, there's something to be said here this even if you're measuring, you know, a sort of

1108
01:20:59,674 --> 01:21:05,454
deprecated fiat currency unit in this chart, the free world is holding on here. I'm installed,

1109
01:21:05,454 --> 01:21:06,254
but the madness.

1110
01:21:08,234 --> 01:21:11,914
Obviously, the United States is the biggest player here,

1111
01:21:12,014 --> 01:21:17,294
and obviously we both believe and hope that it stays free.

1112
01:21:17,374 --> 01:21:20,254
I truly believe it will, and I know that it should.

1113
01:21:20,414 --> 01:21:21,974
My bigger worry is the European Union.

1114
01:21:21,974 --> 01:21:28,754
It doesn't seem like the European Parliament is really on board

1115
01:21:28,754 --> 01:21:30,654
with freedom in the 21st century.

1116
01:21:30,654 --> 01:21:32,774
so I'm more worried about

1117
01:21:32,774 --> 01:21:34,674
the European Parliament

1118
01:21:34,674 --> 01:21:36,094
fucking things up for

1119
01:21:36,094 --> 01:21:37,814
your continent

1120
01:21:37,814 --> 01:21:41,174
you're reading Russian tweets

1121
01:21:41,174 --> 01:21:41,614
my friend

1122
01:21:41,614 --> 01:21:43,574
oh my gosh

1123
01:21:43,574 --> 01:21:45,454
I mean look what's happening

1124
01:21:45,454 --> 01:21:46,934
like free speech laws

1125
01:21:46,934 --> 01:21:47,794
and

1126
01:21:47,794 --> 01:21:50,334
if they're

1127
01:21:50,334 --> 01:21:53,054
I think the UK has the worst

1128
01:21:53,054 --> 01:21:53,774
of that

1129
01:21:53,774 --> 01:21:55,134
and

1130
01:21:55,134 --> 01:22:00,594
nothing like the UK

1131
01:22:00,594 --> 01:22:05,694
Okay. And even, I mean, whatever, anybody can chat GPT it.

1132
01:22:06,354 --> 01:22:08,654
Say it's a thousand people were illegally detained.

1133
01:22:08,794 --> 01:22:11,474
I've heard of anybody that's actually, I mean, it is insane.

1134
01:22:11,754 --> 01:22:16,934
The UK law about tweeting like hate speech and stuff, that's insane.

1135
01:22:16,994 --> 01:22:18,434
But say it's, I don't know, a thousand people.

1136
01:22:20,734 --> 01:22:26,194
The entire nation of Russia is firebombing Ukraine and Twitter is blocked.

1137
01:22:27,194 --> 01:22:29,734
What about China? It's blocked.

1138
01:22:29,734 --> 01:22:33,514
Like it's not even, it's not even, you can't even access it.

1139
01:22:33,914 --> 01:22:38,674
So again, I'm not, I don't want to get into a deep rabbit hole of comparing there, but

1140
01:22:38,674 --> 01:22:43,914
people need to understand that you're being gaslit by three countries, Russia, Iran, and

1141
01:22:43,914 --> 01:22:44,214
China.

1142
01:22:44,874 --> 01:22:48,654
Like why does Khamenei even have a Twitter account?

1143
01:22:48,874 --> 01:22:49,614
Is that free speech?

1144
01:22:50,254 --> 01:22:54,834
I mean, like they're murdering thousands and thousands of people right now.

1145
01:22:55,094 --> 01:22:56,514
And he has a Twitter account?

1146
01:22:57,294 --> 01:22:58,194
Is that free speech?

1147
01:22:59,194 --> 01:22:59,714
Yeah.

1148
01:22:59,734 --> 01:23:16,794
This, it's actually, information is most weaponized, I would say, in the United States. And small European countries, particularly Eastern European countries, who, by the way, have dealt with deportations, the gulag, we've actually dealt with this shit, we've had it in our history.

1149
01:23:17,914 --> 01:23:19,954
There, we recognize that.

1150
01:23:19,992 --> 01:23:24,812
Russia, China, and Iran are weaponizing social media.

1151
01:23:24,972 --> 01:23:25,952
I'm not saying I know the answer.

1152
01:23:26,092 --> 01:23:27,752
I'm not saying censorship.

1153
01:23:28,212 --> 01:23:28,992
I'm not saying any of that.

1154
01:23:29,492 --> 01:23:30,772
I don't even follow the topic, really.

1155
01:23:30,812 --> 01:23:31,732
It seems like you're following it more.

1156
01:23:31,732 --> 01:23:41,512
But I can guarantee you that as bad as you might think you see on some tweet that it is in Europe or something, look at Russia, look at Iran, look at China.

1157
01:23:41,592 --> 01:23:42,732
You can't even get on the platform.

1158
01:23:43,832 --> 01:23:43,972
Yeah.

1159
01:23:44,192 --> 01:23:46,152
And I don't think these things are mutually exclusive.

1160
01:23:46,272 --> 01:23:47,712
I completely agree with you.

1161
01:23:47,712 --> 01:24:03,372
You'd be naive to think that external forces, Russia and China specifically, are trying to meddle in U.S. politics and the sort of conversation and the rhetoric that exists.

1162
01:24:03,372 --> 01:24:08,112
I actually recorded with a journalist from Maine yesterday

1163
01:24:08,112 --> 01:24:13,672
who did a lot of research on the Medicaid fraud abuse in Maine specifically.

1164
01:24:14,472 --> 01:24:23,032
And before that, was really focused on the Chinese national marijuana grow-ups

1165
01:24:23,032 --> 01:24:24,172
that popped up in Maine.

1166
01:24:24,572 --> 01:24:29,232
And he made a very compelling case that what we're seeing now in the U.S.,

1167
01:24:29,232 --> 01:24:34,552
particularly as it pertains to the conversations around Somali immigrants and Medicaid fraud,

1168
01:24:34,752 --> 01:24:37,472
like China had a hand in that.

1169
01:24:37,572 --> 01:24:44,432
There's some sort of loose connections between the CCP and what's happening in Somalia,

1170
01:24:44,432 --> 01:24:46,092
I think via the Belt and Road Initiative.

1171
01:24:46,552 --> 01:24:58,372
And there are some actors that are associated with each other on the China and Somalia side in Somalia

1172
01:24:58,372 --> 01:25:01,092
that are actually doing things in the United States too

1173
01:25:01,092 --> 01:25:02,432
around this Medicaid fraud.

1174
01:25:02,752 --> 01:25:03,612
So I completely agree.

1175
01:25:05,312 --> 01:25:06,032
I think...

1176
01:25:06,032 --> 01:25:06,872
I mean, the tenant media,

1177
01:25:07,252 --> 01:25:08,912
you know about the tenant media scandal, right?

1178
01:25:10,392 --> 01:25:11,112
T-E-N-E-T.

1179
01:25:11,292 --> 01:25:12,172
Yeah, what was that again?

1180
01:25:12,732 --> 01:25:15,292
Yeah, so that was when the Russian government...

1181
01:25:15,292 --> 01:25:18,012
Oh, yeah, they were paying influencers, right?

1182
01:25:18,732 --> 01:25:20,332
Canadian influencers, right?

1183
01:25:20,332 --> 01:25:20,652
Yeah.

1184
01:25:20,972 --> 01:25:21,592
No, American.

1185
01:25:21,832 --> 01:25:24,752
Tim Pool, Dave Rubin, Benny Johnson.

1186
01:25:25,132 --> 01:25:25,952
I'm sure you know those names.

1187
01:25:27,112 --> 01:25:27,832
Those assholes.

1188
01:25:27,832 --> 01:25:33,232
They were getting paid like $150,000 an episode by the Russian government.

1189
01:25:35,552 --> 01:25:38,412
I'll start pumping the propaganda out Putin.

1190
01:25:39,892 --> 01:25:42,672
Check your DMs, man.

1191
01:25:43,012 --> 01:25:46,252
Make sure you know where your sponsorship money is coming from.

1192
01:25:47,252 --> 01:25:51,912
The tenant media scandal, again, should have a lot more views.

1193
01:25:53,432 --> 01:25:53,992
Yeah.

1194
01:25:54,332 --> 01:25:57,032
No, I mean, all I'm saying is it's a battle.

1195
01:25:57,032 --> 01:25:59,332
This is the new frontier.

1196
01:25:59,352 --> 01:26:05,932
I'm a big Yuri Bezmenov.

1197
01:26:06,612 --> 01:26:06,772
Yeah.

1198
01:26:07,812 --> 01:26:09,812
I think he worked in the 80s.

1199
01:26:10,292 --> 01:26:12,712
Why don't you explain to the listeners exactly who that was,

1200
01:26:12,852 --> 01:26:14,092
exactly where he came from?

1201
01:26:15,012 --> 01:26:19,632
He was an ex-Soviet that defected, came to the United States,

1202
01:26:19,712 --> 01:26:23,252
and basically warned us in the 80s through a series of interviews

1203
01:26:23,252 --> 01:26:28,452
that we have a long-term cultural revolution

1204
01:26:28,452 --> 01:26:32,192
being waged against us, the United States.

1205
01:26:32,412 --> 01:26:34,952
I'm sure many of you have seen it, but he basically called it out.

1206
01:26:35,012 --> 01:26:39,492
You have this process of infiltration, normalization, demoralization,

1207
01:26:39,492 --> 01:26:40,552
and takeover.

1208
01:26:42,452 --> 01:26:46,492
During the COVID era, many people were convinced

1209
01:26:47,192 --> 01:26:49,392
that we were in the demoralization phase.

1210
01:26:49,392 --> 01:26:54,112
But essentially, he was saying the Russians are doing this,

1211
01:26:54,192 --> 01:26:56,252
but I would add the Chinese into it as well.

1212
01:26:56,392 --> 01:26:58,132
I think they want to destabilize the United States.

1213
01:26:58,812 --> 01:27:00,392
And that's the weird thing is that you have...

1214
01:27:00,952 --> 01:27:02,932
I mean, well, the fact that it even came from there

1215
01:27:02,932 --> 01:27:04,972
and we couldn't even say anything about it

1216
01:27:04,972 --> 01:27:07,512
and couldn't say anything about a lab leak or anything.

1217
01:27:08,152 --> 01:27:10,912
I mean, this is a disaster.

1218
01:27:11,092 --> 01:27:14,892
Look, there's nothing to think that that might be not the worst of it, right?

1219
01:27:14,912 --> 01:27:19,332
Like knock on wood, but it is full-on information warfare there.

1220
01:27:19,332 --> 01:27:34,072
But here's the thing. They quickly toppled. Like how quick did Assad's buddy topple? Now, look, I'm not saying a lot of people say there's like a Berlin Wall movement or whatever. I mean, the guy was the current president used to be in ISIS or Al Qaeda. So let's not let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

1221
01:27:34,072 --> 01:27:40,732
But the fact that that government toppled so quickly is fantastic.

1222
01:27:41,252 --> 01:27:50,032
And there's only a few more left, at least with major, major, let's say, clout still on the international arena.

1223
01:27:50,332 --> 01:27:52,772
And I think the spotlight should still shine.

1224
01:27:53,032 --> 01:27:54,272
The light should be shown there.

1225
01:27:54,352 --> 01:27:56,632
Of course, Trump invited them all onto his peace board.

1226
01:27:57,072 --> 01:27:58,552
So I don't know what you think about that.

1227
01:27:58,552 --> 01:28:04,612
But the moral clarity might not be the clearest coming from the current admin.

1228
01:28:05,072 --> 01:28:07,452
So we don't have to go too deep down that rabbit hole.

1229
01:28:09,872 --> 01:28:18,452
Yeah, I mean, to be honest, I'm not paying as close attention to the peace thing.

1230
01:28:18,652 --> 01:28:20,172
It seemed like some sort of bullshit.

1231
01:28:20,512 --> 01:28:21,712
But better not.

1232
01:28:22,132 --> 01:28:22,672
Better not.

1233
01:28:22,912 --> 01:28:23,112
Yeah.

1234
01:28:24,012 --> 01:28:26,852
If you don't have a billion dollars, you can be on there for three years.

1235
01:28:26,852 --> 01:28:30,092
If you do have a billion dollars, no one really knows where it's going.

1236
01:28:30,452 --> 01:28:32,352
But yeah.

1237
01:28:33,052 --> 01:28:33,452
Yeah.

1238
01:28:33,472 --> 01:28:35,952
And then you have like the whole city of London theory as well.

1239
01:28:36,852 --> 01:28:38,672
So holding a bunch of these different theories.

1240
01:28:39,092 --> 01:28:40,172
What's the city of London theory?

1241
01:28:41,132 --> 01:28:47,692
Is that we haven't, we never truly broke free from British royal influence on the United States.

1242
01:28:51,512 --> 01:28:55,272
And there's a, there's a theory that's like all the old families.

1243
01:28:55,272 --> 01:29:03,152
and they've essentially been controlling the U.S. and Europe by extension

1244
01:29:03,152 --> 01:29:06,092
via financial markets for 20 centuries.

1245
01:29:06,092 --> 01:29:09,472
Well, their currency has been already destroyed by Bitcoin.

1246
01:29:09,472 --> 01:29:12,432
Again, when I say the city of London is not the city of London,

1247
01:29:12,432 --> 01:29:18,212
it's the way the theory is described.

1248
01:29:18,492 --> 01:29:23,232
That is really the puppet master behind Davos and all that.

1249
01:29:23,672 --> 01:29:23,772
Yeah.

1250
01:29:25,272 --> 01:29:31,412
Well, I mean, look, we should all agree that we want freedom.

1251
01:29:32,712 --> 01:29:33,112
Yeah.

1252
01:29:33,352 --> 01:29:35,772
I live in Europe.

1253
01:29:36,032 --> 01:29:39,572
I can tell you, living in a place where you had the deportations,

1254
01:29:39,672 --> 01:29:41,272
you had the gulags, you had the executions,

1255
01:29:42,192 --> 01:29:44,832
it's not something you want to flirt with, even repeat.

1256
01:29:45,532 --> 01:29:48,472
I saw a very good interview with Stephen Kotkin, by the way.

1257
01:29:51,832 --> 01:29:52,572
It was recent.

1258
01:29:52,572 --> 01:29:53,452
I could pull it up, whatever.

1259
01:29:53,552 --> 01:29:54,272
It was like last weekend.

1260
01:29:54,272 --> 01:29:55,932
And it's very optimistic.

1261
01:29:55,932 --> 01:29:56,432
Very good.

1262
01:29:56,432 --> 01:30:12,598
I mean this is the guy who he on his third volume of Stalin life All right So he a preeminent one of the preeminent historians today from the Hoover Institute Stephen Kotkin If you don know him I highly recommend you know people read him or you can listen to him on YouTube And his takeaway was actually very

1263
01:30:12,598 --> 01:30:19,758
very positive. Like I'm trying to say here, right? I mean, like it is bad and there have been

1264
01:30:20,658 --> 01:30:27,358
like, there have been governments that are never going to, let's say, play by the rules and like,

1265
01:30:27,358 --> 01:30:30,118
No one should be naive to think that there's some true international law, right?

1266
01:30:30,178 --> 01:30:32,038
But everybody should want to be free.

1267
01:30:32,238 --> 01:30:35,518
Like the Baltics, where I live right now, was part of the former Soviet Union.

1268
01:30:35,778 --> 01:30:37,898
We hate the fact that we even have to say that.

1269
01:30:38,218 --> 01:30:39,098
Like we were never Soviet.

1270
01:30:39,298 --> 01:30:46,958
We had free societies, free countries before 1940, when we were occupied three times, twice

1271
01:30:46,958 --> 01:30:48,418
by the Soviets, once by the Nazis.

1272
01:30:48,978 --> 01:30:51,918
And that is just not going to change.

1273
01:30:51,918 --> 01:31:08,698
I mean, we absolutely appreciate freedom and a free sort of united Europe is way better than anything that anybody from, you know, Putinist Russia, communist China could ever throw at us.

1274
01:31:08,838 --> 01:31:10,478
And we're never, you know, we're never going back.

1275
01:31:11,078 --> 01:31:13,878
So I just use that as an example.

1276
01:31:13,998 --> 01:31:17,458
It's like a lot of people have different definitions of what, you know, freedom might mean or something.

1277
01:31:17,458 --> 01:31:19,338
But every country should be able to choose their alliances.

1278
01:31:19,338 --> 01:31:22,238
Every country should be able to be free.

1279
01:31:22,938 --> 01:31:24,838
And I think with the US, as big as it is,

1280
01:31:24,878 --> 01:31:29,618
you get very polarized maybe views of the world there.

1281
01:31:29,678 --> 01:31:30,898
We've talked about a lot of this stuff,

1282
01:31:31,498 --> 01:31:33,538
but I know that we all agree on freedom.

1283
01:31:33,678 --> 01:31:35,618
I would just say, be very careful.

1284
01:31:36,138 --> 01:31:38,498
The disinformation is massive now.

1285
01:31:38,698 --> 01:31:42,898
I mean, and it's only growing and it's really,

1286
01:31:43,438 --> 01:31:45,418
okay, maybe it comes from like Indian click farms

1287
01:31:45,418 --> 01:31:48,458
or Indonesian or Pakistan or something as well.

1288
01:31:48,458 --> 01:31:56,458
But the big funders, the big funders are China and then Russia, which thank God has no money anymore and is being exhausted.

1289
01:31:56,598 --> 01:32:01,238
I mean, Russia, three in five Russians only have a toilet.

1290
01:32:01,438 --> 01:32:03,138
Two in five Russians don't even have a toilet.

1291
01:32:03,758 --> 01:32:09,558
That is how bad that system still is from being so behind from 100 years of communism.

1292
01:32:10,258 --> 01:32:14,658
Like any way we want to describe it, like that is where that is where they are.

1293
01:32:14,658 --> 01:32:18,978
and they're never going to play by our rules, whatever.

1294
01:32:19,418 --> 01:32:21,818
They've shown that as a fact, right?

1295
01:32:21,878 --> 01:32:24,758
They've murdered people with polonium in Britain,

1296
01:32:25,478 --> 01:32:28,798
in London, city of London, back to the London theory.

1297
01:32:29,458 --> 01:32:31,798
So there are places in this world

1298
01:32:31,798 --> 01:32:33,858
who will never play by our rules, whatever, that's fine.

1299
01:32:33,958 --> 01:32:37,178
We all agree invading Iraq was terrible,

1300
01:32:37,818 --> 01:32:39,758
but not everything that the United States does

1301
01:32:39,758 --> 01:32:40,818
is, I would say, bad.

1302
01:32:41,398 --> 01:32:43,858
So I would just keep that in mind

1303
01:32:43,858 --> 01:32:48,718
when you look at like this chart where you say, okay, it's rough. Bitcoin's great. It's a great

1304
01:32:48,718 --> 01:32:54,178
escape hatch. It's going to be a great escape hatch, but losing anyway, back to the Stephen

1305
01:32:54,178 --> 01:32:59,498
Kotkin interview, his was also very optimistic. And he's like, even with what you might see as a

1306
01:32:59,498 --> 01:33:04,058
lot of the provocation, a lot of bad stuff, I know the left is their hair is on fire and, you know,

1307
01:33:04,058 --> 01:33:11,258
it's been some tragedies with these protests, but, um, you still don't see in the United States,

1308
01:33:11,258 --> 01:33:13,558
It's like you don't see a Gulag system.

1309
01:33:13,658 --> 01:33:16,838
You don't even see a concentration camp system like we had with the Japanese.

1310
01:33:18,038 --> 01:33:24,398
Of course, we do have growing internment, you know, sort of facilities, however you

1311
01:33:24,398 --> 01:33:25,958
wanted to say that, with what ICE is doing.

1312
01:33:26,918 --> 01:33:31,638
But, you know, people generally just want controlled immigration, so I understand all

1313
01:33:31,638 --> 01:33:31,838
that.

1314
01:33:32,518 --> 01:33:37,798
But it's not as, it's definitely not like, you know, 1930s Europe.

1315
01:33:37,798 --> 01:33:41,318
But if it would, you know, there was an event in Nazi Germany in the early 1930s.

1316
01:33:41,398 --> 01:33:44,738
It was called Night of the Long Knives, where basically the new people in power,

1317
01:33:44,818 --> 01:33:45,998
they just went completely rogue.

1318
01:33:46,298 --> 01:33:48,278
They killed a bunch of former politicians.

1319
01:33:49,258 --> 01:33:51,378
This was early, like this was 1932 or 1933.

1320
01:33:52,498 --> 01:33:55,818
I mentioned a lot on my show because, you know,

1321
01:33:55,878 --> 01:33:59,018
I don't think the U.S. is going to lose democracy, lose freedom.

1322
01:34:00,278 --> 01:34:03,038
You know, you can't go unchecked.

1323
01:34:03,038 --> 01:34:06,498
You can't just like, you can't have like people murdered on the street and then say,

1324
01:34:06,498 --> 01:34:09,978
these people are domestic terrorists or whatever

1325
01:34:09,978 --> 01:34:11,518
and then keep going and keep going and keep going

1326
01:34:11,518 --> 01:34:13,518
and then all of a sudden you're having extra

1327
01:34:13,518 --> 01:34:15,138
judicial killings

1328
01:34:15,138 --> 01:34:17,978
sort of in mass but like I said

1329
01:34:17,978 --> 01:34:19,338
we're nowhere near that actually

1330
01:34:19,338 --> 01:34:22,238
and I think all of that is

1331
01:34:22,238 --> 01:34:23,738
is

1332
01:34:23,738 --> 01:34:25,718
reasons to have some hope

1333
01:34:25,718 --> 01:34:28,038
that's where I feel

1334
01:34:28,038 --> 01:34:29,918
like the influence whether it's China

1335
01:34:29,918 --> 01:34:31,758
Russia a combination of the two is really

1336
01:34:31,758 --> 01:34:33,758
shining in because I mean

1337
01:34:33,758 --> 01:34:35,998
for the immigration stuff specifically

1338
01:34:35,998 --> 01:34:40,818
like Tom Homan, who's the head of Border Patrol.

1339
01:34:43,438 --> 01:34:49,138
In 2012, Obama gave him a medal for deporting twice as many people as he did in 2025,

1340
01:34:49,718 --> 01:34:55,958
for some reason or another, even though an insane amount of fraud has been unearthed.

1341
01:34:56,658 --> 01:35:03,698
Well, he also took $50,000 out of paper bag to hire supposed border agents in the Trump admin.

1342
01:35:03,698 --> 01:35:12,638
well but separate from that like it's very clear i i agree with you and obama deported uh even more

1343
01:35:12,638 --> 01:35:19,058
the the system is being exploited by quote-unquote asylum seekers to the tune of

1344
01:35:19,058 --> 01:35:29,498
half a trillion dollars a year yeah and like i've said this multiple times like i wish we weren't in

1345
01:35:29,498 --> 01:35:34,058
this situation. We wouldn't be in this situation if Biden hadn't

1346
01:35:34,058 --> 01:35:37,198
completely opened up the border and literally

1347
01:35:37,198 --> 01:35:41,778
held up barbed wire fences so that people could flood into the country.

1348
01:35:42,638 --> 01:35:43,018
And then

1349
01:35:43,018 --> 01:35:49,538
these people, ICE is going to deport

1350
01:35:49,538 --> 01:35:53,158
illegal criminal immigrants. They're still in the criminal

1351
01:35:53,158 --> 01:35:58,058
level of this deportation phase. And you have these

1352
01:35:58,058 --> 01:36:05,738
you have these groups that I think stem from the weather underground

1353
01:36:05,738 --> 01:36:08,718
and that Marxist influence that existed in the 60s

1354
01:36:08,718 --> 01:36:13,798
that Yuri Bezmenov warned us about really creating chaos,

1355
01:36:14,038 --> 01:36:15,458
like going there blowing whistles

1356
01:36:15,458 --> 01:36:19,738
and trying to physically stop federal agents

1357
01:36:19,738 --> 01:36:22,418
from deporting criminal illegal aliens

1358
01:36:22,418 --> 01:36:26,838
and you basically incite a confrontation

1359
01:36:26,838 --> 01:36:33,798
then yes it's terrible i've said this multiple times i wish nobody died but like again if you're

1360
01:36:33,798 --> 01:36:40,738
just like observing the the layout of the situation like they're inciting every action

1361
01:36:40,738 --> 01:36:56,104
and they creating chaos and they blowing whistles and all that and a lot of these people aren even from Minneapolis They sort of I think there a lot of evidence coming to the surface that these

1362
01:36:56,104 --> 01:37:02,024
people are like coordinated by like sort of Marxist groups that want to sow this chaos

1363
01:37:02,024 --> 01:37:07,744
and paint a media narrative that Trump is a fascist, the ISIS Gestapo.

1364
01:37:07,744 --> 01:37:12,704
and to me just literally looking at the facts

1365
01:37:12,704 --> 01:37:14,104
and look at what's happening

1366
01:37:14,104 --> 01:37:15,084
it's like this

1367
01:37:15,084 --> 01:37:16,484
when I think about Yuri Besmanov

1368
01:37:16,484 --> 01:37:19,704
having an influence on how I view America

1369
01:37:19,704 --> 01:37:21,164
in the 21st century

1370
01:37:21,164 --> 01:37:22,724
like I look at that and I'm like

1371
01:37:22,724 --> 01:37:24,404
oh this is what Yuri warned us about

1372
01:37:24,404 --> 01:37:25,404
yeah

1373
01:37:25,404 --> 01:37:28,104
I think that there's both

1374
01:37:28,104 --> 01:37:29,604
you know

1375
01:37:29,604 --> 01:37:31,164
it's going to come from the left

1376
01:37:31,164 --> 01:37:32,304
it's going to come from the right

1377
01:37:32,304 --> 01:37:36,764
people just need to

1378
01:37:36,764 --> 01:37:37,404
you know

1379
01:37:37,404 --> 01:37:47,524
be cautious and obviously the situations where these people did die I mean it's tragic but

1380
01:37:47,524 --> 01:37:55,084
obviously if you you know get caught up in there there could be situations where they become out

1381
01:37:55,084 --> 01:37:59,344
of control and they did but you know again I don't want to sort of go down that rabbit hole too much

1382
01:37:59,344 --> 01:38:07,364
but the point is there's a lot there's just a lot so much that's getting spewed from from China

1383
01:38:07,364 --> 01:38:14,744
and russia and look russia is weak man i mean two and five two and five russians uh don't have a

1384
01:38:14,744 --> 01:38:19,744
toilet they're freezing through the winter they're they think that if they can just make ukrainians

1385
01:38:19,744 --> 01:38:23,724
lives miserable by bombing all of their energy infrastructure which they're doing and it's getting

1386
01:38:23,724 --> 01:38:27,364
very very bad right now in ukraine like you probably haven't seen it because it's not on

1387
01:38:27,364 --> 01:38:34,984
your feed but it's getting very very bad um do do they think that ukrainians are gonna you know

1388
01:38:34,984 --> 01:38:40,244
say, oh, well, we want, we, Russia's lives, Russians' lives are such shit, you know, under

1389
01:38:40,244 --> 01:38:46,204
their autocratic 25-year dictator that, yes, we're actually going to go back to this old,

1390
01:38:46,264 --> 01:38:49,604
you know, sort of shitty oligarchy run by Putin.

1391
01:38:49,604 --> 01:38:50,544
That's going to be a good thing.

1392
01:38:50,604 --> 01:38:51,224
That's a strategy.

1393
01:38:51,344 --> 01:38:54,544
That is the Russian strategy is make them as miserable as they possibly can to break

1394
01:38:54,544 --> 01:38:54,784
them.

1395
01:38:55,484 --> 01:39:00,384
And that is something that we in Eastern Europe, for sure, are just never going to stand for.

1396
01:39:00,464 --> 01:39:00,704
Never.

1397
01:39:01,344 --> 01:39:01,984
Doesn't matter.

1398
01:39:01,984 --> 01:39:06,484
Like whatever someone says about the UK internet censorship laws or whatever.

1399
01:39:06,644 --> 01:39:12,244
I only bring that up not directed as you, but that's just, these are misdirections on what is really, really happening right now.

1400
01:39:12,924 --> 01:39:20,044
And, you know, I mean, Iran, what's going on in Iran should be absolutely top of mind for everybody, US politicians alike.

1401
01:39:21,304 --> 01:39:22,144
Absolutely everybody.

1402
01:39:23,744 --> 01:39:24,644
It's going to be rough.

1403
01:39:24,724 --> 01:39:25,384
It's going to be rough there.

1404
01:39:25,444 --> 01:39:28,204
But this is what happens when a regime becomes totally entrenched.

1405
01:39:28,264 --> 01:39:30,944
And yes, I don't think we're anywhere near that in the United States.

1406
01:39:30,944 --> 01:39:32,924
So that's, again, room for optimism.

1407
01:39:33,204 --> 01:39:34,184
I would say room for optimism.

1408
01:39:34,664 --> 01:39:35,664
But it's dangerous.

1409
01:39:35,984 --> 01:39:37,804
It's really, I'd say it's really dangerous.

1410
01:39:39,404 --> 01:39:47,204
You know, Russia does not in over 12, well, it's almost going to be 12 years since they

1411
01:39:47,204 --> 01:39:48,144
first invaded Ukraine.

1412
01:39:48,824 --> 01:39:57,304
They still do not control a single oblast or these regions in the east of Ukraine.

1413
01:39:57,704 --> 01:39:59,364
They don't, not one, not one.

1414
01:39:59,364 --> 01:40:05,464
they control this Crimea, which is one that they invaded. And again, these are talking points for

1415
01:40:05,464 --> 01:40:12,204
normal, sovereign, free-thinking Republicans. Like who was president when Putin went in and took a

1416
01:40:12,204 --> 01:40:17,944
piece of Ukrainian territory? It was Obama who was president when Ukraine was invaded on the full

1417
01:40:17,944 --> 01:40:23,944
scale. It was Biden. These guys are never going to play by our rules, but when they smell weakness,

1418
01:40:24,264 --> 01:40:28,264
when they know that they can sow dissent, they go for it. That's what they've been doing. They've

1419
01:40:28,264 --> 01:40:37,384
been going for it so i mean it's a lot more look i i uh i have a lot of sympathy for for uh americans

1420
01:40:37,384 --> 01:40:42,064
i think there's a lot of there's a lot of division in america right now but i can tell you as far as

1421
01:40:42,064 --> 01:40:48,504
freedom goes and like true uh autocratic regimes like eastern europe is actually more united

1422
01:40:48,504 --> 01:40:54,504
uh than ever against that and hopefully western europe will join usually the uk is actually on

1423
01:40:54,504 --> 01:40:57,784
the right side there i mean you just saw what happened in china right you saw that the

1424
01:40:57,784 --> 01:41:05,404
um they were talking they were calling second or third what were they called the night of the

1425
01:41:05,404 --> 01:41:10,384
long night yeah they were comparing it to that right yeah i wouldn't necessarily do that because

1426
01:41:10,384 --> 01:41:16,164
that was uh i mean it's not dead yet but yeah they're definitely being smoked out i mean g

1427
01:41:16,164 --> 01:41:21,024
is as paranoid as they come in autocracy there's another thing that stephen kotkin interview i

1428
01:41:21,024 --> 01:41:25,324
definitely mean when you study dictatorships you can start to understand it's like there's nothing

1429
01:41:25,324 --> 01:41:31,364
paranoia for these guys. For Putin, Putin has like four doubles. By the way, if anyone doesn't know,

1430
01:41:31,624 --> 01:41:37,064
the Putin that met Trump in Alaska was not the real Putin. Sorry to burst your bubble there.

1431
01:41:37,664 --> 01:41:42,364
But I mean, it's just embarrassing. It's absolutely embarrassing that these

1432
01:41:42,364 --> 01:41:50,244
autocracks, these oligarchs can take such collective air out of the West, and then you

1433
01:41:50,244 --> 01:41:54,484
start fighting amongst yourselves. So that's the bigger, for me, that's the bigger picture. And

1434
01:41:54,484 --> 01:41:56,484
And that's why I would, again, highlight this.

1435
01:41:56,824 --> 01:41:58,564
It's like, yeah, China is sort of the energy,

1436
01:41:58,944 --> 01:42:03,604
it was a manufacturing powerhouse of the world

1437
01:42:03,604 --> 01:42:05,304
and something we got to deal with.

1438
01:42:05,884 --> 01:42:07,304
And we are trying to deal with it, right?

1439
01:42:07,444 --> 01:42:08,404
Trump's trying to deal with it.

1440
01:42:08,404 --> 01:42:12,284
But all the other stuff is like,

1441
01:42:12,364 --> 01:42:18,384
it's so not important compared to actually losing your freedom.

1442
01:42:19,924 --> 01:42:22,124
And I mean, these guys, they have not,

1443
01:42:22,124 --> 01:42:28,104
they got to they got from stalingrad to berlin quicker than they can get through a few villages

1444
01:42:28,104 --> 01:42:35,924
in ukraine ukraine ukrainians are fucking heroes for what they've been doing and uh mostly i just

1445
01:42:35,924 --> 01:42:39,324
see you know that people they're getting paid by russians like this tenant media goons

1446
01:42:39,324 --> 01:42:44,324
just trying to stir shit and saying like somehow they support putin like tucker tucker supports

1447
01:42:44,324 --> 01:42:50,064
putin i know you've been on tucker's show but you know i feel about this fox news 92nd bit

1448
01:42:50,064 --> 01:42:51,684
telling people how to use Bitcoin wallets.

1449
01:42:52,684 --> 01:42:53,964
You know how I feel about this.

1450
01:42:54,164 --> 01:42:55,124
I don't want to get too into it.

1451
01:42:55,224 --> 01:42:55,864
That's what I say.

1452
01:42:56,344 --> 01:42:57,544
I would say more than ever,

1453
01:42:58,464 --> 01:42:59,284
we need to fight for freedom.

1454
01:42:59,764 --> 01:43:01,824
Besmanov is a great example, by the way.

1455
01:43:03,204 --> 01:43:06,884
Across the decades, across the cultures,

1456
01:43:07,124 --> 01:43:11,184
across anybody who hasn't seen his YouTube videos,

1457
01:43:12,084 --> 01:43:14,084
explanations of how they sow dissent,

1458
01:43:14,324 --> 01:43:15,884
absolutely huge, absolutely important.

1459
01:43:16,484 --> 01:43:19,244
But that's the best export that the Russians have,

1460
01:43:19,244 --> 01:43:19,824
is chaos.

1461
01:43:20,064 --> 01:43:22,924
and they're going to, it's coming more and more and more.

1462
01:43:23,024 --> 01:43:24,564
If you're not aware to it,

1463
01:43:24,664 --> 01:43:34,310
like I would strongly suggest you would tune your antennas Yeah No again like I said earlier you be naive to think stuff isn happening

1464
01:43:34,990 --> 01:43:38,130
We're in an information war, an info war, if you will, sir.

1465
01:43:39,710 --> 01:43:42,070
Yeah, yeah, it is to that extent.

1466
01:43:43,310 --> 01:43:45,330
Anyway, I'm more optimistic.

1467
01:43:45,630 --> 01:43:50,010
The fact that Ukrainians are such heroes holding these guys back in Iran,

1468
01:43:50,530 --> 01:43:53,510
I really would love for them to be free, but that looks really rough.

1469
01:43:53,510 --> 01:43:55,710
and it looks hairy

1470
01:43:55,710 --> 01:43:57,770
we're going to see

1471
01:43:57,770 --> 01:43:59,530
how the US chooses to deal with it

1472
01:43:59,530 --> 01:44:01,090
but you know

1473
01:44:01,090 --> 01:44:03,770
I don't know I think

1474
01:44:03,770 --> 01:44:05,810
I mean to your point

1475
01:44:05,810 --> 01:44:06,270
I think

1476
01:44:06,270 --> 01:44:09,230
put aside

1477
01:44:09,230 --> 01:44:11,630
Trump and Putin's relationship which I think we would

1478
01:44:11,630 --> 01:44:13,430
both acknowledge is a bit special and a bit weird

1479
01:44:13,430 --> 01:44:14,630
to an extent

1480
01:44:14,630 --> 01:44:16,210
like I think

1481
01:44:16,210 --> 01:44:19,370
this the national security

1482
01:44:19,370 --> 01:44:21,130
strategy that we laid out last year

1483
01:44:21,130 --> 01:44:22,190
was really like hey

1484
01:44:22,190 --> 01:44:25,530
China and Russia are coming in our backyard

1485
01:44:25,530 --> 01:44:29,510
and they're trying to influence neighboring countries.

1486
01:44:29,750 --> 01:44:30,790
They didn't say that about Russia.

1487
01:44:31,410 --> 01:44:32,510
They didn't say that about Russia.

1488
01:44:33,770 --> 01:44:35,630
They've mentioned Russia just a few times.

1489
01:44:35,690 --> 01:44:36,570
And more talks about Europe.

1490
01:44:37,290 --> 01:44:38,890
This is a Russian line, by the way.

1491
01:44:39,010 --> 01:44:40,650
It's like Europe is like gay-rup, they call it.

1492
01:44:40,690 --> 01:44:41,470
Gay-Europe or something.

1493
01:44:41,690 --> 01:44:45,430
It's all trannies and just madness.

1494
01:44:46,050 --> 01:44:47,710
It's just not true.

1495
01:44:48,470 --> 01:44:49,230
That's a terrible one.

1496
01:44:49,610 --> 01:44:52,010
That's what the Russians say.

1497
01:44:52,190 --> 01:44:56,530
But look, you know how many times Greenland was mentioned in that national security memorandum?

1498
01:44:58,930 --> 01:44:59,470
Quite a few.

1499
01:44:59,590 --> 01:44:59,790
Zero.

1500
01:45:00,110 --> 01:45:00,890
Zero times.

1501
01:45:01,490 --> 01:45:02,090
Zero times.

1502
01:45:02,130 --> 01:45:03,830
They published it in like November, December.

1503
01:45:04,730 --> 01:45:05,510
Zero times.

1504
01:45:05,610 --> 01:45:08,210
And then Trump goes on this tirade that he's going to take over Greenland.

1505
01:45:08,310 --> 01:45:09,310
That would have been disastrous.

1506
01:45:09,470 --> 01:45:10,870
That would have been disastrous for the U.S., by the way.

1507
01:45:10,970 --> 01:45:12,910
I mean, forget coming to Italy for holidays.

1508
01:45:13,130 --> 01:45:18,710
Like, that would have been, you would have had, you know, I know Americans who hate NATO

1509
01:45:18,710 --> 01:45:21,870
thought like, oh, they got a twofer, like got out of NATO and got Greenland.

1510
01:45:21,870 --> 01:45:24,790
but they don't even speak English in Greenland.

1511
01:45:25,250 --> 01:45:25,810
You know that, right?

1512
01:45:25,950 --> 01:45:28,150
Like, it's not, I mean, it is true.

1513
01:45:28,210 --> 01:45:30,430
The United States does not have an official language.

1514
01:45:30,570 --> 01:45:30,970
That's true.

1515
01:45:31,610 --> 01:45:35,490
But that would have been such a disaster

1516
01:45:35,490 --> 01:45:38,570
for the free world to have that wedge,

1517
01:45:38,850 --> 01:45:42,710
and China and Russia would have been absolutely loving it.

1518
01:45:43,250 --> 01:45:45,130
And I'm very glad that he taco'd there.

1519
01:45:45,210 --> 01:45:48,210
I wasn't sure he would, but at least for now, he taco'd.

1520
01:45:48,210 --> 01:45:55,930
well i mean that's this is trump's art of the deal right he's gonna anchor it to some extreme

1521
01:45:55,930 --> 01:45:58,970
like we're gonna take greenland i'm just like okay everybody cool down

1522
01:45:58,970 --> 01:46:05,770
yeah at least for my observation well it was i think another like venezuela like the fact that

1523
01:46:05,770 --> 01:46:13,010
who knows what the deal with maduro was to extract him from there yeah no i think i think taco is

1524
01:46:13,010 --> 01:46:19,550
definitely tacos the mo right so it's like bomb iran easy actually go in and make around free

1525
01:46:19,550 --> 01:46:23,890
there might be a taco i'm not sure that i'm not saying that for sure we might see still what's

1526
01:46:23,890 --> 01:46:29,190
going to happen there but same thing like take amaduro easy okay i know it's not purely easy but

1527
01:46:29,190 --> 01:46:36,530
actually make venezuela free sounds like a taco but i thought that greenland was on the table i

1528
01:46:36,530 --> 01:46:41,030
I mean, like they, what's the word?

1529
01:46:41,090 --> 01:46:41,650
They mobilized.

1530
01:46:41,850 --> 01:46:45,610
It was the 101st or only Arctic Brigade out in Alaska.

1531
01:46:45,610 --> 01:46:46,570
They told him to go to Minnesota.

1532
01:46:48,670 --> 01:46:55,390
But it wasn't until his little Davos globalist speech where he said he was not going to use force that it was at least clear.

1533
01:46:55,590 --> 01:46:57,550
But it's sad.

1534
01:46:57,670 --> 01:47:03,330
I mean, you know, there's a lot of, there's like a kernel of everything that Trump goes for that I totally agree with, right?

1535
01:47:03,330 --> 01:47:06,290
It's like, we've been saying in Eastern Europe for 30 years,

1536
01:47:06,370 --> 01:47:08,310
you need to take Russia seriously, for 30 years.

1537
01:47:08,810 --> 01:47:11,090
And when Trump got up in front of the Germans,

1538
01:47:11,690 --> 01:47:13,370
remember the Germans were laughing at him in the UN

1539
01:47:13,370 --> 01:47:15,050
in like 2017 or something.

1540
01:47:15,330 --> 01:47:17,110
And he was saying, you got to stop buying Russian gas.

1541
01:47:17,730 --> 01:47:18,270
Very true.

1542
01:47:18,690 --> 01:47:19,170
Very true.

1543
01:47:19,670 --> 01:47:20,690
No argument for me.

1544
01:47:22,130 --> 01:47:23,630
But then he just goes a little bit crazy

1545
01:47:23,630 --> 01:47:25,050
with the taco negotiations.

1546
01:47:25,050 --> 01:47:27,210
So we're going to see.

1547
01:47:27,470 --> 01:47:32,610
And the Putin bromance is very strange, like you said.

1548
01:47:33,330 --> 01:47:38,210
yeah maybe that's like a taco tactic though it's like keep your friends close but your enemies

1549
01:47:38,210 --> 01:47:44,290
closer type thing maybe maybe i mean it's been about five times now where we said you know i'm

1550
01:47:44,290 --> 01:47:49,890
gonna give putin a month i got a list of all the times we said i would get putin a month and we're

1551
01:47:49,890 --> 01:47:55,810
really gonna go hard on him the only the only way to end that is is for the us to go hard uh it's

1552
01:47:55,810 --> 01:47:59,090
very easy to sanction i mean the shadow fleet all this stuff anyway i don't want to i don't

1553
01:47:59,090 --> 01:48:02,530
want to go on too long we've had a lot a big show here but if people are interested in that stuff

1554
01:48:02,530 --> 01:48:04,910
if you can check my stream out.

1555
01:48:05,050 --> 01:48:06,450
And I talk more about that stuff

1556
01:48:06,450 --> 01:48:08,790
and sort of macro issues like this

1557
01:48:08,790 --> 01:48:10,950
because we have different views in,

1558
01:48:11,050 --> 01:48:12,170
let's just say in Eastern Europe

1559
01:48:12,170 --> 01:48:15,290
compared to say whatever you might be seeing

1560
01:48:15,290 --> 01:48:17,090
about freedom being lost in, I don't know,

1561
01:48:17,230 --> 01:48:18,110
in the UK or something.

1562
01:48:19,150 --> 01:48:21,970
And as you know, I'm highly appreciative

1563
01:48:21,970 --> 01:48:25,530
of your perspective in Eastern Europe and the Baltics.

1564
01:48:25,650 --> 01:48:26,530
You know I love the Baltics,

1565
01:48:26,630 --> 01:48:29,690
having been to Latvia four times now.

1566
01:48:29,930 --> 01:48:30,850
It's a beautiful part of the world.

1567
01:48:30,850 --> 01:48:34,990
Yeah, you're always welcome to Honey Badger, everybody listening.

1568
01:48:35,250 --> 01:48:40,630
And if you want to challenge my views on this coming from what's likely an American side.

1569
01:48:40,990 --> 01:48:47,830
Again, I'm American and European, so I feel like I can be a little bit jujitsu on this,

1570
01:48:47,970 --> 01:48:50,950
but I'm happy to buy you a beer and we can talk more about it.

1571
01:48:51,090 --> 01:48:52,210
So please come over.

1572
01:48:53,210 --> 01:48:55,550
I can't wait to have a beer with you in person again.

1573
01:48:55,990 --> 01:48:57,210
It's been too long, sir.

1574
01:48:58,510 --> 01:48:59,670
Likewise, my friend.

1575
01:49:00,850 --> 01:49:03,090
Well, Bitcoin's cheap compared to gold and silver.

1576
01:49:03,290 --> 01:49:04,070
You heard it here first.

1577
01:49:05,210 --> 01:49:07,670
This is as cheap as it's ever going to get for silver.

1578
01:49:08,130 --> 01:49:08,670
Keep that in mind.

1579
01:49:10,110 --> 01:49:10,770
Peace and love, freaks.

1580
01:49:11,070 --> 01:49:13,690
Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.

1581
01:49:14,190 --> 01:49:17,750
If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode.

1582
01:49:18,370 --> 01:49:22,110
If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.

1583
01:49:22,210 --> 01:49:23,550
We're looking to get the word out there.

1584
01:49:24,390 --> 01:49:28,390
Also, wherever you're listening, whether that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify,

1585
01:49:28,390 --> 01:49:34,910
make sure you like and subscribe to the show and if you can leave a rating on the podcasting

1586
01:49:34,910 --> 01:49:40,750
platforms that goes a long way last but not least if you want to get these episodes a day early and

1587
01:49:40,750 --> 01:49:47,270
ad free make sure you download the fountain podcasting app and go to fountain.fm to find that

1588
01:49:47,270 --> 01:49:54,010
five dollars a month get you every episode a day early ad free helps the show gives you

1589
01:49:54,010 --> 01:50:00,530
incredible value. So please consider subscribing via fountain as well. Thank you for your time.

1590
01:50:01,110 --> 01:50:01,930
And until next time.