1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,280
Crazy times sitting down again with Ed Dowd.

2
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:11,560
And I think we're going to ease into it with somewhat benign information.

3
00:00:11,660 --> 00:00:19,300
Maybe it's not benign, but I think the least controversial topic of the week, which is the Federal Reserve finally cutting rates 25 bps.

4
00:00:19,340 --> 00:00:23,180
And you were telling me that you think this is a slap in the face to Trump.

5
00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,240
Well, look, the prediction markets were expecting 25.

6
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,740
Our math was showing they should have done 50.

7
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:39,120
That was our call. I don't care that I'm wrong because I've said to people if they do 25, it's kind of a thumb in the eye of Trump.

8
00:00:40,260 --> 00:00:47,640
They're probably going to be doing more cuts as we roll forward. Housing starts and permits came out today. They were a disaster.

9
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:56,040
We've been predicting a real estate housing crisis. We put out a report in January that talked about that, that people can buy.

10
00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:04,560
And our conviction in that call is only just getting more convicted, I should say.

11
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,760
And today, the data is bad.

12
00:01:07,500 --> 00:01:09,220
My partner, Carlos, called me this morning.

13
00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,080
He said, I'm updating the dashboards, and this is pretty bad.

14
00:01:12,260 --> 00:01:14,440
So the housing market's rolling over.

15
00:01:15,460 --> 00:01:17,500
People can't afford to own homes.

16
00:01:17,860 --> 00:01:20,140
The millennials can't buy from the boomers.

17
00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:20,980
It's a disaster.

18
00:01:20,980 --> 00:01:23,540
And the boomers are keeping their prices high.

19
00:01:23,540 --> 00:01:28,340
I think anecdotally on Maui, I have a friend who's a real estate photographer.

20
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:29,380
His business is booming.

21
00:01:29,580 --> 00:01:30,200
Why is it booming?

22
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,960
Nothing's selling, but people keep firing their real estate agent and relisting.

23
00:01:35,700 --> 00:01:39,420
And he keeps getting to go reshoot and or relicense his photographs.

24
00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:43,800
So he's having a great time while no one's selling any homes.

25
00:01:44,460 --> 00:01:51,740
Yeah, I think you said you retweeted it, but I recorded a melody right yesterday, and it seems pretty clear.

26
00:01:51,740 --> 00:01:58,780
I very much like people like her who actually get in their car and drive to go see these things.

27
00:01:59,100 --> 00:02:08,120
And one of the cities that was a topic discussion is the city I just moved away from, which is Austin, Texas, moved back home to the Philadelphia area.

28
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:20,300
But it was very clear to me when I was down there for the last four years that they were overbuilding to a degree that was astonishing, both downtown and in the sprawl.

29
00:02:20,300 --> 00:02:30,840
And so you couple like the housing data and just anecdotally to your point, I'm a millennial father with children with friends who are fathers and mothers with children in a similar situation.

30
00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,260
And nobody's moving to buy these houses.

31
00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,320
The prices are simply too high.

32
00:02:36,380 --> 00:02:38,220
And then you factor in the jobs revision.

33
00:02:38,220 --> 00:02:39,320
And it seems clear.

34
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:40,700
I guess that's my big question.

35
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,560
Like, have we been in a recession for the last two years?

36
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:46,420
You know, we think we have.

37
00:02:46,420 --> 00:02:50,580
So we made a call that ended up technically being wrong.

38
00:02:50,740 --> 00:02:53,780
We were looking for a recession at the end of 23, beginning of 24.

39
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:58,260
That's what all our early economic cycle indicators were telling us.

40
00:02:58,620 --> 00:03:03,280
They had worked for the last 60 years, and then suddenly we were wrong.

41
00:03:03,380 --> 00:03:09,000
So we asked ourselves, hey, have the laws of economic fundamentals changed, or is something else going on?

42
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,860
And we eventually figured out there was a new economic variable that really isn't talked about.

43
00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:15,900
And it's the elephant in the room.

44
00:03:15,900 --> 00:03:28,720
It was illegal immigration. When you drop 20 million people into a country over a four-year period and you fund it via deficit spending, because that's how they did it.

45
00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:35,800
That's why we were running 8% debt-to-GDP deficits, which are crisis-level deficits.

46
00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:39,480
Last time we ran those types of deficits was during the Great Financial Crisis.

47
00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:43,380
We ran them for two years in 2023 and 2024.

48
00:03:44,380 --> 00:03:50,780
And there were two things going on, unprecedented government job creation and importing illegal immigrants.

49
00:03:50,940 --> 00:03:55,980
And that was all funded via direct payments from the U.S. government and Washington through the NGOs.

50
00:03:56,420 --> 00:03:58,680
It created a false juiced economy.

51
00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:06,900
A lot of signals were sent to decision makers that were wrong, some of which are multifamily housing developers.

52
00:04:06,900 --> 00:04:11,900
That's going to be the crisis is not a single family home crisis that's coming.

53
00:04:11,900 --> 00:04:15,900
It's going to be a multifamily home crisis, structures with five or more units.

54
00:04:15,900 --> 00:04:25,900
We have not seen this type of overbuild since the 70s when the baby boomers were leaving colleges and going, you know, getting their first jobs before they bought homes.

55
00:04:25,900 --> 00:04:32,900
So we have multifamily housing crisis, which is also going to drag down single family home prices.

56
00:04:32,900 --> 00:04:37,420
So we've had a—you know, there's an overbuild right now and high inventory in single-family homes.

57
00:04:37,540 --> 00:04:39,920
The home builders are struggling to sell their inventory.

58
00:04:40,700 --> 00:04:42,200
And no one can afford these homes.

59
00:04:42,860 --> 00:04:49,240
And with the cessation of the illegal immigration flow that started under Trump, so that's at zero now.

60
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:56,960
And the deportations are not that high yet, but self-deportations are quite high.

61
00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:02,880
Lacey Hunt, an economist, thinks there's been about 1.2 million people that have self-deported.

62
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,900
I think there's only been a couple hundred thousand of actual deportations.

63
00:05:06,900 --> 00:05:09,320
But the second derivative on that is chilling.

64
00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:15,480
And a lot of the flow of funds to these illegals has been stopped or curtailed.

65
00:05:15,780 --> 00:05:17,180
So a lot of these people are leaving.

66
00:05:17,860 --> 00:05:26,380
So the juice that went into the economy in 23 and 24 that kept us afloat and kind of prevented a recession is all gone now.

67
00:05:26,380 --> 00:05:28,100
and now we're left holding the bag.

68
00:05:28,260 --> 00:05:30,760
And Trump is going to have a housing recession

69
00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,460
coupled with a stock market bubble.

70
00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:38,720
So we have a dot-com bust, like 2000 dot-com bust coming

71
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,760
and a housing crisis at the same time.

72
00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:41,620
So it's going to be ugly.

73
00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,340
It's not apparent yet to the average Joe

74
00:05:44,340 --> 00:05:47,600
because the stock market is at new all-time highs

75
00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,140
based on seven AI stocks, eight AI stocks.

76
00:05:51,660 --> 00:05:54,900
And if you look at the Value Line Geometric Index,

77
00:05:54,900 --> 00:06:01,160
which is 17,000 issues, it has not gone above the 2022 highs.

78
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,800
So the average stock is not done well in this market.

79
00:06:06,020 --> 00:06:09,440
And it's an unprecedented bubble of epic proportions.

80
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,020
And it's not a question of if or when it blows.

81
00:06:12,500 --> 00:06:14,320
And we think it's sooner rather than later.

82
00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,040
Trying to call it top is a fool's errand.

83
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,240
Well, you won't know the top until it breaks.

84
00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:23,400
We've never crashed from all-time highs.

85
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:29,500
So you'll get a high, you'll get a sell-off of 10% to 15%, then a counter-trend rally.

86
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:35,580
And then if the counter-trend rally doesn't go back into all-time highs, then the bear market has begun.

87
00:06:35,660 --> 00:06:40,260
So we won't know we're in a bear market until we see some price action telling us that.

88
00:06:40,380 --> 00:06:41,800
But we think it's coming soon.

89
00:06:42,900 --> 00:06:49,880
Well, let's dig into these details, starting with the effects of the closing of the border and self-deportation.

90
00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:54,540
you were tweeting about, you quote tweeted the tricolor story, which I wasn't aware of until

91
00:06:54,540 --> 00:07:01,840
a couple of days ago when I recorded with Melody Wright. And she was under the impression that this

92
00:07:01,840 --> 00:07:08,220
is a canary in the coal mine, potentially first domino to fall in credit markets in terms of

93
00:07:08,220 --> 00:07:17,460
liquidity crunch. Yeah, it's one of many, but this tricolor auto was basically lending to a large

94
00:07:17,460 --> 00:07:22,480
part of their book was lending, giving loans to illegal immigrants that didn't have, it's coming

95
00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:27,560
out now, they didn't have like licenses and or documentation, and they just gave them money to

96
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:36,620
go buy cars. And that's all gone poof, because, you know, any kind of Ponzi like this needs constant

97
00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:42,180
new illegal immigrants to keep it going. So the growth, it's called a growth Ponzi. And once the

98
00:07:42,180 --> 00:07:50,380
stops, it's exposed, and they just went tits off, bankrupt. And there's a lot of banks that were

99
00:07:50,380 --> 00:07:56,400
lending to Tri-Color Auto to finance these loans, and now they're holding the bag, and they're going

100
00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:03,820
to have to write off these loans. And this starts to send a chilling effect throughout the credit

101
00:08:03,820 --> 00:08:10,820
system. Credit's going to start to tighten. It already has. And additionally, Tri-Color Auto

102
00:08:10,820 --> 00:08:14,820
probably sold a lot of these loans in the asset-backed market,

103
00:08:15,340 --> 00:08:17,520
and a lot of these bonds are sold as AAA,

104
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,500
and I'm hearing that they're not trading like AAA bonds anymore, obviously.

105
00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,840
Here's the tweet that you quote tweeted.

106
00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,660
As you mentioned, the bondholders are scrabbling,

107
00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:30,760
and I think the second paragraph is very telling.

108
00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,120
In Dallas, the regional bank, Triumph Financial,

109
00:08:33,300 --> 00:08:35,520
has dispatched teams of employees to use car lots

110
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,780
where they're identifying and whisking away to safe locations

111
00:08:38,780 --> 00:08:42,900
the vehicles they believe are collateral in their loans in Midtown Manhattan, a boutique

112
00:08:42,900 --> 00:08:47,840
investment firm that built a position in Tricolor's asset-backed bonds, Clearhaven Capital Management,

113
00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:52,460
has been calling other bondholders, urging them to band together and fight to keep big banks away

114
00:08:52,460 --> 00:08:56,340
from the assets that belong to them. Those banks include JP Morgan, Fifth Third, Bancorp.

115
00:08:57,100 --> 00:09:01,800
They've begun to forensically examine their own collateral, who ascertain the magnitude of the

116
00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:07,760
losses. And this is an area of the market. I mean, I think you've been on top of it, but not where I

117
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:15,580
would expect this to start subprime auto lending yeah so this is gun poof uh the real estate market

118
00:09:15,580 --> 00:09:22,240
uh has been floated by illegal immigration not so much in home purchasing but uh you know putting

119
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:28,840
a floor on rents and when you have uh rent floors you know owners of of homes that rent to other

120
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:36,220
individuals or multi-family housing can kind of get by with uh with with their economics well

121
00:09:36,220 --> 00:09:41,820
that's all going the wrong way. And new tenant rents started plump, which is a quarterly series

122
00:09:41,820 --> 00:09:45,780
that's really not that well followed. We talk about it in one of our real estate reports.

123
00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:52,040
It's been plummeting since the fourth quarter, and that started right around when Trump got

124
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,820
elected. So there were a lot of self-deportations when Trump got elected, and new tenant rents

125
00:09:55,820 --> 00:10:03,360
started collapsing. New tenant rents are a canary in the coal mine for all tenant rents,

126
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,920
which then lead into shelter and prices of homes.

127
00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:06,980
So it's beginning.

128
00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:12,420
And you can see it's starting to show up in the housing starts numbers and the permit numbers.

129
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:14,620
Permits have been, permits peaked in 2022.

130
00:10:14,820 --> 00:10:17,340
New permits for single-family homes peaked in 2022.

131
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:18,820
They've been rolling over.

132
00:10:18,820 --> 00:10:24,780
We have an unprecedented gap between homes for sale and homes sold.

133
00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,980
Normally, that time series closely follows each other.

134
00:10:30,140 --> 00:10:32,980
And the gap is about 500,000 homes right now.

135
00:10:32,980 --> 00:10:44,220
So how does that close? You know, that that closes with prices coming down. And, you know, I think, you know, you talked to Melanie. When did you talk to her yesterday before?

136
00:10:44,500 --> 00:10:52,080
Two days ago. Yeah. Yeah. She was talking about and you were talking about the inability for people to make the math work.

137
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,440
And what's happened is home prices spiked after COVID.

138
00:10:56,660 --> 00:10:58,040
And part of that was due to the Fed.

139
00:10:58,180 --> 00:11:06,380
I don't know if people know this, but the Fed went in and bought an unprecedented amount of mortgage backs right after COVID.

140
00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,100
And they took that supply out of the market.

141
00:11:09,460 --> 00:11:19,160
That gave liquidity to other lenders to reloan and started a housing, mini housing boom when rates were low before they started their interest rates spike.

142
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:29,420
And that caused just – that's what we're seeing now is this overbuilding from that liquidity event.

143
00:11:30,020 --> 00:11:32,100
And then interest rates have gone up.

144
00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,360
That makes mortgages unaffordable for the average person.

145
00:11:35,660 --> 00:11:39,460
Then you have the insurance costs, which have doubled since COVID.

146
00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,260
You have property taxes, which are up a lot.

147
00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:45,600
And then if it's condos, HOAs have doubled.

148
00:11:46,060 --> 00:11:49,580
People can't make the math work to buy a new home.

149
00:11:50,140 --> 00:11:53,800
And so the only way to readjust this and make the math work is price.

150
00:11:54,480 --> 00:12:01,120
And people right now are slowly – it's dying on them that the prices that they're listing, they're not going to get because no one can afford it.

151
00:12:02,180 --> 00:12:07,780
And I think there's a lot of people hoping that it solves on the rate side of things.

152
00:12:07,780 --> 00:12:09,720
It's a two-part equation, price or rates.

153
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:27,820
And I think many are convinced and under a state of amnesia that the Fed beginning their rate cut regime will lead to a lower 30-year mortgage rate and lower 10-year bond, lower 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 30-year U.S. Treasury yield.

154
00:12:27,820 --> 00:12:57,760
But as we learned last year, that's not a foregone conclusion. And I think that brings up the sort of profundity of this particular Fed meeting, really the lead up to this meeting over the last year with Trump berating him before the election, continuously berating him after Lisa Cook getting kicked out, Stephen Mirren getting put in and the Fed signaling that they want to add something to their dual mandate, make it a tri-mandate, if you will.

155
00:12:57,820 --> 00:13:02,940
with implicit yield curve control, yield curve control by any other name.

156
00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:08,160
And so what effect do you think that has, if any, on the housing market particularly?

157
00:13:09,560 --> 00:13:14,180
Well, this is something people don't understand about Fed monetary policy.

158
00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:19,720
It takes 18 to 24 months for that to get into the system.

159
00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:23,500
It doesn't happen immediately, and it doesn't benefit the economy.

160
00:13:23,780 --> 00:13:24,700
There's a time lag.

161
00:13:24,700 --> 00:13:36,760
And just like when they raise interest rates from 0% to 5.5%, it really doesn't start to hurt the economy and cool inflation until 18 months later.

162
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:39,720
And that started happening during the 2024 election.

163
00:13:40,420 --> 00:13:43,760
May of 2024 was 18 months after the Fed rate hike cycle.

164
00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:50,140
So these cuts, and people got to remember, they started cutting interest rates in 07.

165
00:13:50,140 --> 00:13:55,100
And they cut all the way down to the bottom in 09, went to zero.

166
00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:58,340
And home prices went straight down.

167
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,320
And, you know, there's an 18-year housing cycle.

168
00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:10,360
And we're back, you know, since 2007, we're 18 years from there.

169
00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:11,360
Here we are.

170
00:14:11,980 --> 00:14:17,980
And it's not going to – and not only that, they're behind the eight ball

171
00:14:17,980 --> 00:14:20,720
because the payroll numbers are fragile.

172
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,900
So they should have been cutting a lot last year.

173
00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:25,780
And they didn't.

174
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,820
And so real yields are still around 1.5%.

175
00:14:28,820 --> 00:14:31,440
And that's a problem in inflation.

176
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,080
We're predicting inflation will print a sub 2% number

177
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,720
before the end of the year CPI.

178
00:14:37,140 --> 00:14:39,680
Now, everyone says, oh, CPI is fake.

179
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,580
Yeah, it is fake, but it's rate of change.

180
00:14:41,580 --> 00:14:44,180
And that's what people in the bond markets care about.

181
00:14:44,860 --> 00:14:47,220
And everybody's over-allocated stocks

182
00:14:47,220 --> 00:14:59,938
and under allocated bonds because it been a massive unprecedented bond bear market for the last three years And one of our favorite asset classes is the 30 treasury And to your point

183
00:15:00,577 --> 00:15:05,497
everyone said, oh, the 30-year, they're not going to be able to sell those. Well,

184
00:15:06,097 --> 00:15:13,217
in a slowing recession deflationary scenario, which we see coming, the 30-year traditionally

185
00:15:13,217 --> 00:15:15,918
And it goes up quite a bit in price down in yield.

186
00:15:16,457 --> 00:15:22,357
And you just mentioned the third mandate, yield curve control, which we – you win both ways.

187
00:15:22,658 --> 00:15:23,678
The economy slows.

188
00:15:24,077 --> 00:15:25,497
You make a lot of money on the long bond.

189
00:15:25,918 --> 00:15:32,817
And even if you're wrong there, the Fed's going to come in and do yield curve control and bail you out because this is a national security issue.

190
00:15:33,638 --> 00:15:38,597
And this is – we have $37 trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced.

191
00:15:38,597 --> 00:15:40,477
We have too much on the short end.

192
00:15:40,477 --> 00:15:48,678
And the government is going to force the U.S. institutions and U.S. citizens to own these bonds.

193
00:15:49,018 --> 00:15:53,957
And that's why there's this stablecoin push, as you know, to fund the deficits.

194
00:15:55,298 --> 00:15:57,217
This is a national security issue.

195
00:15:57,438 --> 00:16:02,418
And don't bet against the government to force you into treasury securities.

196
00:16:04,097 --> 00:16:05,918
Well, it's funny because I've had a lot of discussions.

197
00:16:05,918 --> 00:16:10,438
There's a lot of people who are riptard bullish out there.

198
00:16:10,477 --> 00:16:37,337
They think that the economic policies put forth by Trump and Besant and crew are really reorienting the economy to springboard moving forward, whether it's tariffs, deregulation, what's happening at the Fed with the sort of explicit intent to merge the Treasury and the Fed to enact this yield curve control.

199
00:16:37,337 --> 00:16:51,337
And then on top of that, really leaning into energy and AI, which is going to lead to a productivity boom that sort of helps us thread the needle to achieve escape velocity and make sure that the markets keep churning.

200
00:16:51,717 --> 00:16:54,577
I'm guessing you'd not believe any of this.

201
00:16:56,038 --> 00:17:01,298
Well, they're not necessarily wrong, but it takes time for these things to happen.

202
00:17:01,477 --> 00:17:04,037
So let's talk about these trade deals.

203
00:17:04,697 --> 00:17:06,498
We have a European trade deal announced.

204
00:17:06,498 --> 00:17:08,578
We have a Japanese trade deal announced, right?

205
00:17:09,117 --> 00:17:12,098
Well, those both have to be ratified by their respective parliament.

206
00:17:12,237 --> 00:17:17,477
So there are agreements, number andums of understanding, and they're not ratified yet.

207
00:17:18,017 --> 00:17:22,517
And oh, by the way, trade needs to be rebalanced, but there's going to be pain along the way

208
00:17:22,517 --> 00:17:24,918
because tariffs are not inflationary.

209
00:17:24,998 --> 00:17:30,158
They are in the short term, but in the long term, when you look at the whole economic,

210
00:17:30,598 --> 00:17:33,998
the impact economically in the micro level, they're deflationary.

211
00:17:33,998 --> 00:17:41,537
We wrote about this several months ago, and you're going to see a margin squeeze on America's corporations because they're not going to be able to pass the prices along.

212
00:17:42,078 --> 00:17:44,217
And that's going to cause them to shed employees.

213
00:17:44,877 --> 00:17:45,717
This is all coming.

214
00:17:46,277 --> 00:17:52,537
So Trump has the right idea, but there's pain and a valley in between his policies taking effect.

215
00:17:53,078 --> 00:17:55,057
And the AI boom is classic.

216
00:17:55,197 --> 00:18:00,017
It's just like the dot-com, telco, dark fiber buildup boom.

217
00:18:01,418 --> 00:18:03,457
It's a lot of speculation and hype.

218
00:18:03,797 --> 00:18:04,998
There's no revenues there.

219
00:18:05,498 --> 00:18:08,537
And the productivity isn't going to come for five, six years from now.

220
00:18:08,697 --> 00:18:13,457
And oh, by the way, most of the AI giant companies that we're going to want to own don't even

221
00:18:13,457 --> 00:18:14,217
exist yet.

222
00:18:14,217 --> 00:18:17,498
Because if you think about what happened during the dot-com boom, the only one that came out

223
00:18:17,498 --> 00:18:19,957
of that that went on to glory was Amazon.

224
00:18:20,658 --> 00:18:26,178
Facebook, Google, Apple really didn't exist until after the cheap broadband was utilized.

225
00:18:26,858 --> 00:18:27,838
And that's what's going to happen.

226
00:18:28,037 --> 00:18:30,117
Pricing for AI is off the charts ridiculous.

227
00:18:30,117 --> 00:18:33,877
and it's going to have to be recapitalized at much lower prices.

228
00:18:33,938 --> 00:18:36,717
So all the people who made these investments initially are going to get wiped out,

229
00:18:36,818 --> 00:18:37,898
as usual, in the bubble.

230
00:18:38,858 --> 00:18:39,797
And that's not a bad thing.

231
00:18:39,858 --> 00:18:41,138
That's the way capitalism works.

232
00:18:41,797 --> 00:18:47,578
There was a railroad bubble where everybody invested in building out the railroads,

233
00:18:48,117 --> 00:18:51,938
and the first investors, the speculative investors, all got wiped out.

234
00:18:52,178 --> 00:18:55,697
And then we had the railroads built, and then everything was recapitalized

235
00:18:55,697 --> 00:18:56,697
at much cheaper prices.

236
00:18:56,858 --> 00:18:58,477
Then the productivity boom came later.

237
00:18:58,617 --> 00:18:59,938
So people aren't wrong.

238
00:19:00,117 --> 00:19:07,398
It's just that they're wrong in the next two years, and it's going to be a very painful problem.

239
00:19:09,517 --> 00:19:11,797
So we've seen gold scream to all-time highs.

240
00:19:11,898 --> 00:19:18,377
Bitcoin is, I believe, about 5% below its previous all-time high.

241
00:19:18,377 --> 00:19:22,498
How do you think these hard assets, neutral reserve assets fare?

242
00:19:22,498 --> 00:19:35,658
Well, it's tough because if you look at it, gold had a run-up into the great financial crisis and then corrected 50% once the margin call came.

243
00:19:36,117 --> 00:19:37,818
I don't know if gold is going to go down 50%.

244
00:19:37,818 --> 00:19:42,237
It'll have a pullback, but long-term, you want to own gold because they're making gold money again.

245
00:19:42,717 --> 00:19:47,877
We all know that the dollar reserve system at some point is going to become renegotiated.

246
00:19:47,877 --> 00:19:54,277
Again, the call on that is not imminent, but gold will have a pullback, I think.

247
00:19:54,678 --> 00:19:56,477
I wouldn't worry about it.

248
00:19:56,638 --> 00:19:57,398
I wouldn't panic.

249
00:19:57,517 --> 00:19:58,117
I'd buy more.

250
00:19:58,977 --> 00:20:06,357
Bitcoin, as you know, and we've talked about this, is unfortunately very highly correlated with risk assets.

251
00:20:07,037 --> 00:20:14,898
And unless it decouples its time, which I don't know if it will, if we get the financial asset correction I'm predicting,

252
00:20:14,898 --> 00:20:16,857
Bitcoin will participate in that.

253
00:20:17,877 --> 00:20:18,537
Makes sense.

254
00:20:20,197 --> 00:20:25,797
Which is, it's funny because I'm just using pattern recognition sentiment indicators.

255
00:20:25,797 --> 00:20:31,838
Not everybody, obviously, yourself and others are ringing the alarm bell.

256
00:20:32,357 --> 00:20:39,838
But there's many people who are convinced that we're going to $250, $300 in Bitcoin by the end of the year.

257
00:20:39,898 --> 00:20:42,217
And who knows, maybe that's the blow off top and that's when.

258
00:20:42,758 --> 00:20:45,678
It may be, and maybe Bitcoin decouples.

259
00:20:45,678 --> 00:20:50,638
But if you want to go with historicals, it won't until proven otherwise.

260
00:20:50,998 --> 00:20:54,357
And I'm sure you've heard the meme floating around like never doom.

261
00:20:54,498 --> 00:20:56,178
And I'm a big just generally never doom.

262
00:20:56,237 --> 00:21:07,818
But when it comes to financial analysts covering these subjects, there's a growing contingent of people who don't want to hear any of the negative analysis and would call somebody like you a doomer.

263
00:21:08,918 --> 00:21:10,178
Well, I'm not a doomer.

264
00:21:10,178 --> 00:21:15,438
And we were myself and other economists that have been doing this for a long time.

265
00:21:15,678 --> 00:21:24,098
were wrong about the recession in 2023-24. But the problem is, when you avoid the pain that

266
00:21:24,098 --> 00:21:28,197
should have come then, and you blow a bubble like they did with illegal immigration, you've

267
00:21:28,197 --> 00:21:35,178
misallocated capital. The Fed made bad decisions. Corporations made bad decisions. And the capital

268
00:21:35,178 --> 00:21:40,678
market made bad decisions. So when this all corrects and equilibrium is restored, because

269
00:21:40,678 --> 00:21:45,237
that's what markets are, they eventually reach their equilibrium, there'll be a lot of pain.

270
00:21:45,237 --> 00:21:57,557
Now, I'm not a doomer. This pain is good. Lower home prices are good for the millennials and Gen X that are younger. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

271
00:21:58,078 --> 00:22:14,638
Now, obviously, I don't want people to lose their jobs, but that's just this reset, not great reset, but this financial reset is basically the passing of the baton of generational wealth from boomers back down to the generation below that's actually doing the work.

272
00:22:15,237 --> 00:22:23,117
And, you know, look, my fear is we get more of the same.

273
00:22:23,117 --> 00:22:29,037
If we have a, you know, correction, what do we expect?

274
00:22:29,158 --> 00:22:32,498
The Fed will do what it does, do unprecedented monetary policy.

275
00:22:33,078 --> 00:22:40,598
The Trump administration, you know, might do things that harm the younger generation long term by bailing out the boomers again.

276
00:22:40,918 --> 00:22:44,877
So this is a generational kind of battle that's been going on.

277
00:22:45,237 --> 00:22:50,357
And the boomers, you know, they've been bailed out since the great financial crisis.

278
00:22:51,037 --> 00:23:00,977
Well, to that point, if this crisis does materialize, we have correction, housing market, stock market, and the government and the Fed are forced to react.

279
00:23:00,977 --> 00:23:08,418
What, in your mind, would be the most advantageous way to react to this particular crisis compared to 2008?

280
00:23:10,318 --> 00:23:11,857
Yeah, I don't know what they're going to do.

281
00:23:11,977 --> 00:23:13,717
Yield curve control, I think, is on the table.

282
00:23:13,717 --> 00:23:16,078
and they're talking about it.

283
00:23:16,258 --> 00:23:20,297
And if you've been watching what they're doing at the banks,

284
00:23:20,877 --> 00:23:26,777
Jamie Dimon has been saying, hey, you need to loosen up the capital ratios

285
00:23:26,777 --> 00:23:30,418
on treasuries so that the banks can buy more treasuries.

286
00:23:30,418 --> 00:23:34,197
And there's a reason that Jamie Dimon knows the game.

287
00:23:34,418 --> 00:23:36,857
He knows that financial repression is coming.

288
00:23:37,977 --> 00:23:42,078
And it's not pretty when it happens.

289
00:23:42,078 --> 00:23:45,477
And the problem is the system.

290
00:23:45,578 --> 00:23:48,477
The system relies on constant inflation.

291
00:23:50,217 --> 00:23:52,857
Bankers' creed is inflate or die.

292
00:23:54,158 --> 00:24:10,658
That's why we're at the point now where even a mild recession could take down the whole system because there's just so much leverage and financialization of the U.S. economy, which was hollowed out over the last 30, 40 years of these NAFTA trade deals and exporting all the jobs overseas.

293
00:24:10,658 --> 00:24:18,977
So we have this kind of financialized economy where a lot of people's wealth is in their home, which, you know, home is a place where you live.

294
00:24:19,037 --> 00:24:23,438
Your wealth should be other things like, you know, savings and productivity and jobs.

295
00:24:23,597 --> 00:24:28,638
And it's been basically a Ponzi speculative financialization of our economy.

296
00:24:28,797 --> 00:24:29,237
Yeah.

297
00:24:29,237 --> 00:24:44,498
Yeah, it's funny observing the Silicon Valley types that are really bullish on AI and they're wholly convinced that it's going to lead to this productivity boom, which I think it will eventually, to your point, years down the line.

298
00:24:44,498 --> 00:24:52,078
I used it certainly made us more productive, more efficient, able to do more with less here at the media company and at the fund that I work for.

299
00:24:52,158 --> 00:25:03,697
But in terms of it being widely implemented within corporations across the country immediately to create that productivity boom, it doesn't seem like it's going to happen that quickly.

300
00:25:03,697 --> 00:25:14,078
And then you just look at forward P ratios and they're above dot com levels right now, which is something that for some reason or another doesn't get brought up often enough.

301
00:25:14,078 --> 00:25:17,418
I think like something to point out like this doesn't seem sustainable.

302
00:25:18,418 --> 00:25:30,197
It's not sustainable. And if you do the math, historically, when we get to these types of dividend yields on the total stock market, the 10 year forward projected returns, which we wrote about in February are zero.

303
00:25:30,197 --> 00:25:41,117
What that means is if you buy in your 401k a basket of the S&P right now, including dividends, 10 years from now, you're projected to get back to even.

304
00:25:41,777 --> 00:25:46,297
That implies there's a big drawdown in between now and year 10.

305
00:25:47,237 --> 00:25:49,597
And that's happened like clockwork.

306
00:25:50,178 --> 00:25:51,877
And it's not a timing tool.

307
00:25:52,318 --> 00:25:54,518
It can be like that for another year.

308
00:25:54,777 --> 00:25:57,117
But when it happens, it's going to be pretty epic.

309
00:25:57,117 --> 00:25:57,318
Yeah.

310
00:25:57,318 --> 00:26:10,777
Yeah. No. And the other signal that I've been following, the indicator I've been following is the credit spreads between corporate debt and the Fed's fund rate, which have compressed to levels of complacency that are very worrying as well.

311
00:26:11,717 --> 00:26:21,658
Yeah, no, we've done the math on that. It's in our report we put out in January on predictions of a deep world-wide recession. We looked at these credit spreads.

312
00:26:21,658 --> 00:26:28,398
and when you look at them when they're super tight like this historically they go much wider

313
00:26:28,398 --> 00:26:34,357
this is this i mean that's just the math they're adam they're they're they're they're like three

314
00:26:34,357 --> 00:26:40,297
standard dv or two standard deviations below normal and we just know how this works they're

315
00:26:40,297 --> 00:26:45,857
going to go the rubber band goes the other way and it's going to go quick and fast yeah

316
00:26:45,857 --> 00:27:09,658
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. And that's what I wonder. I mean, with midterms next year, too, just thinking of the chaos that could unleash. But I said this to somebody else, I think off air. No, I said it on air with Tom Luongo last week, who is very bullish on the economic policy.

317
00:27:09,658 --> 00:27:23,338
But I think the Charlie Kirk assassination does sort of de-risk the sort of importance of midterms for the Republicans specifically.

318
00:27:24,597 --> 00:27:27,097
Because I think they've been focused solely on the economy.

319
00:27:27,777 --> 00:27:34,557
Make sure that it doesn't implode so that we can get to midterms and make sure that we hold the House or get the House and the Senate.

320
00:27:34,557 --> 00:27:47,578
But now with this Charlie Kirk thing, I don't think the importance on the economy is as severe or as imperative as it was last week, early last week.

321
00:27:47,578 --> 00:27:55,557
go? Well, apparently, again, we have to look at polling numbers, but anecdotally, people are

322
00:27:55,557 --> 00:28:01,197
saying they're leaving the Democrats because they've lost a lot of normal Democrats who aren't

323
00:28:01,197 --> 00:28:08,617
high media consumers who just are watching what's going on and hearing some of the people that they

324
00:28:08,617 --> 00:28:16,078
thought were friends saying boring things are running center to right. So that needs to show

325
00:28:16,078 --> 00:28:24,518
up in the poll numbers because right now it's anecdotal. The worry, of course, is this Charlie

326
00:28:24,518 --> 00:28:29,918
Kirk assassination. And, you know, Charlie Kirk interviewed me three times. He's a wonderful human

327
00:28:29,918 --> 00:28:37,537
being. Personally, I was, you know, I'm 58 and I marveled at his communication skills and his

328
00:28:37,537 --> 00:28:44,957
ability to create what he did from such a very young age. I mean, he was a phenom in 18, 19,

329
00:28:44,957 --> 00:28:50,797
and he just built something that, you know, quite frankly, I was in awe of.

330
00:28:50,797 --> 00:28:55,918
He was quite an individual, and I'm sad that he's gone.

331
00:28:56,678 --> 00:29:05,617
But when you step back and analyze this, my biggest fear is that this is the beginning of, you know, a divide-and-conquer strategy.

332
00:29:05,617 --> 00:29:15,438
I've said forever that this is a class issue, not a left versus right, black versus white, Hispanic, Muslim.

333
00:29:16,057 --> 00:29:24,737
This is a class issue, and we are at the end of a grand cycle, and you need to focus on who's really in charge.

334
00:29:25,018 --> 00:29:28,617
And the divide and conquer strategy has been well used throughout the millennium.

335
00:29:29,117 --> 00:29:30,097
This is nothing new.

336
00:29:31,237 --> 00:29:31,258
No.

337
00:29:32,158 --> 00:29:34,057
It's not what I was telling you before we hit record.

338
00:29:34,057 --> 00:29:53,195
I think my strategy is to recognize we in the fog of war and to not make any knee reactions I did tweet some stuff the day of and the day after but I think over the weekend took some time to take a step back and recognize what you said Hey there probably some ulterior

339
00:29:53,595 --> 00:29:54,395
in the aftermath,

340
00:29:54,635 --> 00:29:55,735
there's going to be ulterior motives

341
00:29:55,735 --> 00:29:58,375
to really divide and draw a wedge between people.

342
00:29:59,355 --> 00:30:01,775
Yeah, there's going to be all sorts of narratives

343
00:30:01,775 --> 00:30:03,255
that are spun out of this.

344
00:30:03,635 --> 00:30:05,375
And the key to focus on is

345
00:30:05,375 --> 00:30:07,415
whatever narrative is coming out,

346
00:30:07,475 --> 00:30:10,015
if it's about dividing, ignore it.

347
00:30:10,015 --> 00:30:12,495
And remember, this is a class issue.

348
00:30:12,935 --> 00:30:16,335
And when I say class, I'm not talking about someone with $10 million.

349
00:30:16,795 --> 00:30:29,115
I'm talking about the oligarchs, the super ultra wealthy, the, you know, the Uber 0.01% that control the lion's share of the wealth of the globe.

350
00:30:31,415 --> 00:30:33,335
It's funny how easy people are riled up.

351
00:30:33,795 --> 00:30:37,815
And we forget, I mean, especially not to, I mean, COVID.

352
00:30:37,815 --> 00:30:47,335
I think the implications of the aftermath of COVID, reaction to COVID, I think ended probably, I would say, 2023, but 2023, really.

353
00:30:48,255 --> 00:30:54,635
So we're not too far after that, and people are getting spun up into another mass psychosis right now.

354
00:30:56,135 --> 00:30:56,655
Absolutely.

355
00:30:56,975 --> 00:30:57,935
And here's the other thing, people.

356
00:30:57,935 --> 00:31:08,175
I mean, look, we stopped doing a lot of new COVID research at the end of 24 because we did it for free and free doesn't work as a business model.

357
00:31:08,855 --> 00:31:15,575
And, you know, the science is now coming out and proving definitively that these vaccines are a disaster.

358
00:31:16,255 --> 00:31:22,075
The problem is it was a mass poisoning event and we're left with the bill.

359
00:31:22,075 --> 00:31:25,375
The bill is continued disability increases.

360
00:31:25,375 --> 00:31:29,215
We're running around 6 million above where we were pre-COVID.

361
00:31:29,755 --> 00:31:31,835
When you and I were talking, we were at 3 million.

362
00:31:32,075 --> 00:31:37,975
So the damage from the vaccine continues, and it's going to cost the country a lot of money.

363
00:31:38,995 --> 00:31:42,235
And it's also, you know, I hate to say this.

364
00:31:42,355 --> 00:31:47,735
I put out a tweet talking about a new concept called volatility of thought.

365
00:31:48,615 --> 00:31:53,155
There's a lot of psychological and psychiatric issues that have been caused by the vaccine.

366
00:31:53,155 --> 00:31:56,955
that was shown in our UK personal

367
00:31:56,955 --> 00:32:00,735
independent payment system, where they get down into different claims.

368
00:32:01,235 --> 00:32:05,035
Psychiatric claims went off the hook starting in 21, 22, and 23.

369
00:32:05,235 --> 00:32:08,575
They're just exploding. So there's neurological issues.

370
00:32:09,195 --> 00:32:12,975
So we have a population that's getting sicker that also

371
00:32:12,975 --> 00:32:16,855
isn't thinking straight. Yeah, I discussed this with Jessica Rose when she was on

372
00:32:16,855 --> 00:32:20,375
a couple of weeks ago, and again, haven't been able

373
00:32:20,375 --> 00:32:28,075
to verify it. Yeah, but it would not shock me at all. I saw one study that was observing the brain

374
00:32:28,075 --> 00:32:35,235
matter of people who had taken the vaccine, and it was essentially the effect that the study showed,

375
00:32:35,235 --> 00:32:39,715
you're going to have to verify it, was that people were essentially being lobotomized. It was

376
00:32:39,715 --> 00:32:44,535
graying out the frontal cortex of their brains, which wouldn't shock me at all.

377
00:32:44,535 --> 00:32:53,015
uh you know look um the anecdote look there's there's the math which we've proven something's

378
00:32:53,015 --> 00:32:58,715
going on in the population and then there's anecdotes and we all know people that uh not

379
00:32:58,715 --> 00:33:03,075
everybody the good news it's not everybody but there's we all know people that have changed and

380
00:33:03,075 --> 00:33:08,515
they're not thinking straight yeah well that gets another thing we discussed before we hit record

381
00:33:08,515 --> 00:33:14,455
last week there was a lot of very positive momentum toward the direction of getting accountability and

382
00:33:14,455 --> 00:33:19,375
letting the public know that these vaccines are, were not safe and effective, are not safe and

383
00:33:19,375 --> 00:33:26,215
effective with the Maha hearings on the Hill last Monday. Um, and I was extremely optimistic,

384
00:33:26,215 --> 00:33:33,215
um, Monday, Tuesday after those, those hearings, because it was quite obvious that, um,

385
00:33:34,135 --> 00:33:38,535
anybody standing up for the vaccine that Jake, I forget his last name, the guy from Stanford got

386
00:33:38,535 --> 00:33:41,415
But they mopped the floor with him.

387
00:33:41,735 --> 00:33:47,315
And the data they brought, the arguments they brought were pretty clear cut and dry to me.

388
00:33:47,315 --> 00:33:56,215
And I think many others who, even others who were skeptical of the narrative around the COVID vaccine not being safe and effective.

389
00:33:57,515 --> 00:34:00,795
You know, before the Charlie Kirk assassination, let's go back a couple of weeks.

390
00:34:01,155 --> 00:34:08,015
Trump put out that true social statement about Operation Warp Speed maybe not being as great as he thought.

391
00:34:08,535 --> 00:34:13,415
That was a huge sea change in the Trump mindset that he was willing to.

392
00:34:13,615 --> 00:34:18,255
And that gave me hope that Kennedy had his support.

393
00:34:18,695 --> 00:34:26,135
And also the attacks on Kennedy proved to me that they're scared of what he's coming up with behind the scenes.

394
00:34:26,135 --> 00:34:33,535
You know, it's hard for us to know what's really going on because, you know, when you're head of HHS, you're not communicating what's going on.

395
00:34:33,535 --> 00:34:39,855
So we only had to like, you know, crumbs to go on, some of which were new mRNA vaccines being approved.

396
00:34:39,855 --> 00:34:47,595
But when I saw Kennedy being attacked and the ferocious blitzkrieg against him, that's when I'm like, Bobby's doing the right thing.

397
00:34:48,535 --> 00:34:51,435
And then Trump put out that tweet.

398
00:34:51,795 --> 00:34:52,855
And then we had the hearings.

399
00:34:53,395 --> 00:34:54,315
And I think that's Scott.

400
00:34:54,535 --> 00:34:58,415
I think the last doctor that presented the other side, his name was Scott.

401
00:34:58,535 --> 00:34:59,215
Last name is Scott.

402
00:34:59,295 --> 00:35:00,595
Maybe Jake Scott was his name.

403
00:35:00,595 --> 00:35:06,695
But he got, like you said, he got wiped out by everybody else.

404
00:35:07,315 --> 00:35:12,815
I was super optimistic that, oh, the truth is finally going to start to come out, and then boom, it's gone.

405
00:35:12,955 --> 00:35:14,195
No one's talking about it anymore.

406
00:35:14,555 --> 00:35:22,655
Charlie Kirk, you know, on Wednesday, the hearings were Monday, Tuesday, Charlie Kirk, and now no one's talking about it.

407
00:35:22,715 --> 00:35:25,375
Everyone is enraged about this assassination.

408
00:35:25,375 --> 00:35:32,655
And, you know, I find the timing a little too convenient personally.

409
00:35:34,975 --> 00:35:46,455
Do you think, I mean, obviously the momentum in terms of public attention on this topic has waned significantly, understandably so, in the wake of Charlie Kirk.

410
00:35:46,535 --> 00:35:48,475
But do you think it's completely stomped out?

411
00:35:48,555 --> 00:35:50,575
I mean, there was hearings this morning as well, I believe.

412
00:35:51,055 --> 00:35:53,395
No, no, it's not because this has happened before.

413
00:35:53,395 --> 00:36:01,615
People don't remember, but we were getting a lot of traction in COVID truth about the mRNA vaccines in 2022.

414
00:36:01,875 --> 00:36:04,335
And then the Ukraine war started and wiped it off the map.

415
00:36:04,435 --> 00:36:08,955
So the COVID story has been wiped off the map a couple of times.

416
00:36:09,055 --> 00:36:14,475
But the bad news is the reason it's not going to get wiped off the map is the damage continues to grow.

417
00:36:14,695 --> 00:36:18,715
And more and more people are realizing how bad this is.

418
00:36:18,715 --> 00:36:26,615
And I think there was a Rasmussen poll that came out recently that 54% of Americans believe that they know somebody's either been injured or died from the COVID vaccine.

419
00:36:26,995 --> 00:36:28,915
So we're over the tipping point now.

420
00:36:29,395 --> 00:36:37,675
And that's the sad part of this is they're not going to be able to get away from the COVID story because the damage continues to steamroll and slowly gather moss.

421
00:36:38,915 --> 00:36:43,555
And it's not only that Rasmussen poll.

422
00:36:43,675 --> 00:36:47,375
It's like people who know people have been injured or died from the vaccine.

423
00:36:47,375 --> 00:36:55,135
I think the other sort of negative externality of the vaccine is becoming blatantly obvious to people is the turbo cancer.

424
00:36:55,735 --> 00:36:59,695
Maybe I don't know if that's considered an injury in these polls.

425
00:36:59,855 --> 00:37:13,415
But I think if you look at the rates of colon cancer in men in their 30s, I know multiple people, some of which got cancer and died within a few months, some that got it and started at stage four.

426
00:37:13,415 --> 00:37:18,135
And I think it's becoming so big that you can't ignore it.

427
00:37:18,615 --> 00:37:24,375
And also the birth rate dip, that's a problem.

428
00:37:24,675 --> 00:37:26,575
That's going to continue for a while.

429
00:37:27,535 --> 00:37:33,075
Look, I said this years ago, and I still believe this.

430
00:37:33,375 --> 00:37:38,975
You know, what happened during COVID with these vaccines is one of the greatest crimes against humanity.

431
00:37:38,975 --> 00:37:46,335
you know and 70 60 70 percent of this country was poisoned to one degree or another

432
00:37:46,335 --> 00:37:56,455
it's a mass poison not only this country but yeah the glow and i mean talk about

433
00:37:56,455 --> 00:38:05,515
sort of black swan events for the financials could the if there is accountability and the

434
00:38:05,515 --> 00:38:11,495
big pharma companies are held to account. Anthony Fauci's held to account. What effect does that have

435
00:38:11,495 --> 00:38:17,595
on pharmaceuticals? Obviously, it will leak in the media too. Trump and RFK have,

436
00:38:18,595 --> 00:38:24,075
then it goes far as to ban advertisements for pharmaceutical drugs on TVs, but they made it so

437
00:38:24,075 --> 00:38:30,655
you have to verbally utter every potential side effect, which is going to make it very expensive

438
00:38:30,655 --> 00:38:35,455
and unlikely that pharma ads actually get on air.

439
00:38:36,135 --> 00:38:40,935
But there's got to be some financial consequences for these companies.

440
00:38:40,935 --> 00:38:43,615
But then, as you mentioned, for the country overall,

441
00:38:43,735 --> 00:38:47,935
is we have to take care of the people who have been negatively affected by these vaccines.

442
00:38:49,215 --> 00:38:57,095
Yeah, so the budget of the Medicare expenses in the U.S. is going to continue to rise.

443
00:38:57,095 --> 00:39:04,755
Social Security is saving money because of the death of the older people from COVID and the vaccines.

444
00:39:05,555 --> 00:39:14,315
So they're saving money on Social Security, but the disabilities and the continued care of those who are injured is only rising.

445
00:39:17,195 --> 00:39:23,095
The implications of a COVID reckoning, I think, are so scary.

446
00:39:23,095 --> 00:39:30,035
And that's why it's kind of the elephant in the room, and they don't like to talk about it that much, is because corporate America would be liable.

447
00:39:30,675 --> 00:39:32,555
Fortune 500 companies mandated this.

448
00:39:33,255 --> 00:39:35,595
So it's not just pharmaceutical industry.

449
00:39:35,775 --> 00:39:37,095
It's a lot of people.

450
00:39:37,615 --> 00:39:43,355
So they're very hesitant to open up the floodgates of litigation because it would cripple the economy.

451
00:39:43,355 --> 00:39:59,655
And I said that pre-Trump election 2024 that my biggest fear is that they try to memory all this because there's so many vested interests that don't want to talk about this because it's just a giant mess that has huge economic implications.

452
00:40:02,755 --> 00:40:04,055
That's why I'm just thinking through that.

453
00:40:04,855 --> 00:40:11,355
I don't want to laugh because it's not funny, but the only solution, like open the floodgates and say, hey.

454
00:40:13,355 --> 00:40:19,515
we fucked up crime against humanity poisoned tens of millions of americans half the country

455
00:40:19,515 --> 00:40:24,875
60 of the country um but you're not allowed to sue these companies because

456
00:40:26,155 --> 00:40:33,035
it would triple the economy they could try that i don't think it'll work i think i think uh the

457
00:40:33,035 --> 00:40:39,595
problem the problem is this this isn't going away and there's a reckoning coming and i i don't know

458
00:40:39,595 --> 00:40:45,575
win. And, you know, I think you and I have been shocked that, you know, this vaccine should have

459
00:40:45,575 --> 00:40:53,615
been pulled in February of 2021 on the VAERS data alone. I mean, we had a swine flu vaccine that

460
00:40:53,615 --> 00:40:59,375
killed 25 people and they pulled the freaking thing. The VAERS has got, you know, 16,000 U.S.

461
00:40:59,435 --> 00:41:06,195
deaths or even more now and globally, like 34,000. And, you know, that's an underreporting

462
00:41:06,195 --> 00:41:12,155
factor of 40, anywhere from like 20 to 50, let's call it 40. So in the U.S. alone, it's probably

463
00:41:12,155 --> 00:41:18,975
800,000 to 1.2 million people dead, we know. But the point is, and then of course, the disabilities

464
00:41:18,975 --> 00:41:24,515
and the injuries, there should have been pulled in February of 21. The signal was there. And then

465
00:41:24,515 --> 00:41:31,475
people like me should never exist. As the internet phenomenon, I should not have existed

466
00:41:31,475 --> 00:41:33,435
if things were working properly.

467
00:41:34,435 --> 00:41:35,135
And here we are.

468
00:41:35,435 --> 00:41:40,295
It's 2025, and we're still not having a national conversation about this.

469
00:41:40,375 --> 00:41:40,855
It's absurd.

470
00:41:41,035 --> 00:41:41,515
It really is.

471
00:41:43,435 --> 00:41:44,255
And I think it's necessary.

472
00:41:44,435 --> 00:41:48,055
It just doesn't show how broken the institutions are across the board.

473
00:41:49,275 --> 00:41:49,475
Yeah.

474
00:41:49,875 --> 00:41:54,555
I think where it's COVID, Charlie Kirk, again, fog of war.

475
00:41:54,555 --> 00:41:58,115
But I think one thing that's clear is that the institutions,

476
00:41:58,115 --> 00:42:09,815
particularly the universities have indoctrinated a generation or part of a generation with overtly Marxist communist views,

477
00:42:09,975 --> 00:42:14,455
and they've become completely detached from reality to a certain extent.

478
00:42:15,235 --> 00:42:20,075
And I think that's exacerbated by the economic situation as well,

479
00:42:20,075 --> 00:42:27,775
where people are more willing to get on the path of either radical right or radical left sort of political views,

480
00:42:27,775 --> 00:42:33,355
because they're not getting any help from the moderates that exist in the system today.

481
00:42:33,555 --> 00:42:38,755
And I think across the board, the institutions, pharma, financial, university, education,

482
00:42:39,495 --> 00:42:43,575
it's become clear that it's completely bankrupt across the board.

483
00:42:43,575 --> 00:42:49,955
And that's why when it comes to COVID, the vaccine specifically,

484
00:42:50,155 --> 00:42:55,195
if we get accountability, we need the national conversation and a period of,

485
00:42:55,195 --> 00:42:59,475
it's blatantly obvious that all these institutions are corrupt at their core.

486
00:42:59,675 --> 00:43:00,675
We need to do something different.

487
00:43:01,895 --> 00:43:05,655
Well, the other thing, the reason why we need a national conversation is because there's

488
00:43:05,655 --> 00:43:07,715
still so many people who don't know why they're sick.

489
00:43:08,415 --> 00:43:10,455
And if you don't know why you're sick, you can't treat it.

490
00:43:10,915 --> 00:43:13,255
I mean, there are protocols to clean up the spike protein.

491
00:43:13,395 --> 00:43:14,555
I don't know which ones are the best.

492
00:43:14,635 --> 00:43:15,295
I'm not the doctor.

493
00:43:15,435 --> 00:43:19,895
But if you don't know what's causing your ailment and you can't take proactive action,

494
00:43:20,315 --> 00:43:22,595
you're going to go to the doctor and go, I got this, I got that.

495
00:43:22,595 --> 00:43:27,455
they're going to give you more pharmaceutical drugs to hide the symptoms rather than gear.

496
00:43:28,095 --> 00:43:30,735
And, you know, I'm a hopeful person.

497
00:43:30,855 --> 00:43:34,475
I believe that the bodies of, you know, God gave us this body.

498
00:43:34,855 --> 00:43:36,035
It's very resilient.

499
00:43:36,315 --> 00:43:39,655
And I think if people were aware of what was going on, they could heal themselves.

500
00:43:41,355 --> 00:43:42,815
Yeah, I completely agree.

501
00:43:44,915 --> 00:43:46,335
How are you positioning yourself?

502
00:43:46,335 --> 00:43:52,435
Obviously, you talked about 30-year treasuries, sort of the ugly duckling in the pond.

503
00:43:52,835 --> 00:44:01,095
Well, 30 years are for people that would be like an institutional client that likes to speculate.

504
00:44:01,295 --> 00:44:05,895
The average Joe should be in three-month T-bills just waiting to buy cash equivalents.

505
00:44:06,735 --> 00:44:10,415
The average Joe should be just – I've been saying this the last two years.

506
00:44:10,415 --> 00:44:17,175
Fortunately, I was early like Warren Buffett, but have some dry powder in your portfolio to take advantage of bargains when they come.

507
00:44:17,895 --> 00:44:19,235
And don't be over levered.

508
00:44:19,395 --> 00:44:21,895
I had a consultation.

509
00:44:22,635 --> 00:44:30,815
I do some consulting on the phone, and somebody who was a real estate investor asked me what I thought.

510
00:44:30,935 --> 00:44:33,815
And I said, well, what's your leverage profile look like?

511
00:44:33,915 --> 00:44:46,313
You got a lot of rental property income He like I don have any leverage And I said that fabulous And you should probably think of re in the bottom of this market and expand your empire

512
00:44:46,473 --> 00:44:47,733
He's like, that's a good idea.

513
00:44:47,893 --> 00:44:50,813
So if you have leverage, reduce it.

514
00:44:51,313 --> 00:44:54,973
If you have a portfolio, raise some cash.

515
00:44:54,973 --> 00:44:55,933
I'm not going to tell you, you know,

516
00:44:56,033 --> 00:44:57,473
I'm not going to tell you to get out of everything.

517
00:44:57,593 --> 00:44:58,253
It's up to you.

518
00:44:58,753 --> 00:45:00,393
And if you don't have gold, get some.

519
00:45:00,393 --> 00:45:11,233
Yeah. And so with Tricolor going down, where should we be looking next to the knock-on effects from that?

520
00:45:12,293 --> 00:45:17,653
Well, the banks have been extending and pretending. They've been hiding the commercial real estate losses.

521
00:45:18,613 --> 00:45:24,552
The Fed put out a statement about that in November of 2024.

522
00:45:25,653 --> 00:45:29,313
The New York Fed did a report saying the banks are extending and pretending.

523
00:45:29,313 --> 00:45:33,013
So there's huge losses on the banks' books right now.

524
00:45:33,693 --> 00:45:34,852
The Federal Reserve came in.

525
00:45:34,953 --> 00:45:43,893
People forget this, but in 2023, we had a duration problem, meaning everybody's bank bond portfolio was underwater because they raised interest rates.

526
00:45:44,393 --> 00:45:46,033
And there was a deposit of flight.

527
00:45:46,453 --> 00:45:53,233
The Fed came in and lent money to the banks against their losses and shored up the system.

528
00:45:53,433 --> 00:45:55,673
That was duration interest rate risk.

529
00:45:55,673 --> 00:46:00,153
What they're not going to do is lend money to banks to bail them out of credit risk.

530
00:46:00,273 --> 00:46:01,773
And the credit part of the cycle is coming.

531
00:46:02,613 --> 00:46:06,473
This tricolor is probably going to set off a knock-on effect.

532
00:46:06,973 --> 00:46:08,332
It'll start slowly.

533
00:46:08,913 --> 00:46:11,332
It's already been going on behind the scenes, I think.

534
00:46:12,293 --> 00:46:13,453
Japan has issues.

535
00:46:13,793 --> 00:46:16,113
So that's a black swan event none of us can predict.

536
00:46:16,273 --> 00:46:17,653
Japan goes tits up.

537
00:46:18,753 --> 00:46:19,713
They're in trouble.

538
00:46:20,093 --> 00:46:21,593
They have currency crisis brewing.

539
00:46:21,593 --> 00:46:28,993
And I follow this guy on Twitter who said that the Bank of Japan has been doing interventions every night for the last 45 days.

540
00:46:29,552 --> 00:46:31,373
So we've got issues.

541
00:46:31,933 --> 00:46:35,613
And there's a lot of insolvent banks.

542
00:46:36,993 --> 00:46:40,213
And the question is, when do the credit markets care?

543
00:46:40,393 --> 00:46:42,013
And I think they're going to start caring soon.

544
00:46:42,593 --> 00:46:46,093
Well, as it pertains to the real estate market, are the banks going to have the biggest problems this time around?

545
00:46:46,233 --> 00:46:49,173
Or from what I understand, a lot of it is the private credit.

546
00:46:49,173 --> 00:46:56,033
Well, I think banks hold mortgages on their balance sheet because they've got higher yields than Treasury.

547
00:46:56,293 --> 00:46:58,233
So there might be some issues.

548
00:46:58,433 --> 00:47:00,193
Definitely there will be some regional bank issues.

549
00:47:00,373 --> 00:47:01,713
The big banks will gobble them up.

550
00:47:03,233 --> 00:47:05,553
It's the shadow banking system.

551
00:47:05,553 --> 00:47:09,093
It means private credit funds, private equity.

552
00:47:10,193 --> 00:47:15,033
Like I think Melanie was saying that there's a lot of different lenders that stepped up.

553
00:47:15,133 --> 00:47:16,373
Those are the ones that are going to go.

554
00:47:16,373 --> 00:47:20,673
But the problem is the banks are exposed to them because they lend to them.

555
00:47:21,393 --> 00:47:24,593
So let's say you're a private credit fund.

556
00:47:24,753 --> 00:47:26,493
Where do you get your leverage?

557
00:47:26,633 --> 00:47:27,473
You get it from a bank.

558
00:47:28,293 --> 00:47:29,453
So the banks are on the hook.

559
00:47:29,573 --> 00:47:32,173
They're just not as direct as they were last time.

560
00:47:33,613 --> 00:47:37,352
So they'll just have to assume those assets, right?

561
00:47:38,653 --> 00:47:38,953
Yeah.

562
00:47:39,133 --> 00:47:41,593
I mean, so it's an indirect problem.

563
00:47:43,013 --> 00:47:43,233
Yeah.

564
00:47:43,233 --> 00:47:46,733
Yeah, it definitely feels like weird.

565
00:47:46,832 --> 00:47:47,953
There's a lot going on.

566
00:47:47,993 --> 00:47:53,413
You mentioned the numerology of the markets before we hit record.

567
00:47:53,753 --> 00:47:58,513
A bit demonic, approaching 6666 on the S&P.

568
00:47:59,453 --> 00:48:01,473
And just when you consider everything that's going on,

569
00:48:02,053 --> 00:48:05,213
not only economically with the employment numbers,

570
00:48:06,553 --> 00:48:10,673
inflation slowing down, the P.E. ratios that we're seeing,

571
00:48:10,673 --> 00:48:13,533
but socially with Charlie Kirk, the COVID vaccines.

572
00:48:14,813 --> 00:48:16,053
We've talked about this before,

573
00:48:16,153 --> 00:48:18,133
and I feel very comfortable talking about it with you.

574
00:48:18,253 --> 00:48:20,973
It feels very clear that we're in a spiritual battle right now.

575
00:48:21,033 --> 00:48:23,533
I actually read a newsletter about it last night.

576
00:48:23,893 --> 00:48:27,433
And I think while a lot of our discussions

577
00:48:27,433 --> 00:48:29,753
and many other discussions I have in the show

578
00:48:29,753 --> 00:48:32,793
focus on the data and policy decisions,

579
00:48:32,893 --> 00:48:36,933
I think many people need to begin thinking more spiritually.

580
00:48:37,332 --> 00:48:38,573
What are we actually doing here?

581
00:48:38,573 --> 00:48:41,073
and what type of world do we want to live in?

582
00:48:41,413 --> 00:48:46,033
I don't think you can solve the problems by manipulating policy

583
00:48:46,033 --> 00:48:49,093
and trying to push the data one way or another.

584
00:48:49,413 --> 00:48:53,393
I think we have to have a sort of societal confrontation

585
00:48:53,393 --> 00:48:55,613
with what we're doing as a society.

586
00:48:56,973 --> 00:48:59,113
Yeah, look, there's cycles.

587
00:48:59,713 --> 00:49:03,133
You mentioned spiritual battle.

588
00:49:03,133 --> 00:49:03,713
There is.

589
00:49:03,713 --> 00:49:16,273
I mean, the secularism of this country, which started in the 60s and is with us now, people don't have an inner compass anymore.

590
00:49:17,433 --> 00:49:20,693
And their idea of what's wrong and right has been distorted.

591
00:49:21,213 --> 00:49:23,273
And let's be honest.

592
00:49:23,393 --> 00:49:28,852
The intelligence agencies have been working this to the best of their ability.

593
00:49:29,033 --> 00:49:32,053
We got rid of the Smith-Mundt Act under Obama.

594
00:49:32,053 --> 00:49:37,893
us as a country, we've been propagandized. Media doesn't tell the truth and they're not on the hook

595
00:49:37,893 --> 00:49:44,453
for it. We have literally—the media is an apparatus of the government. And we know about

596
00:49:45,973 --> 00:49:51,332
Operation Mockingbird. And to think that went away, you've got to be naive. And if you believe

597
00:49:51,332 --> 00:49:55,973
most of anything that comes out of the media, I don't know what to tell you. And also, we have to

598
00:49:55,973 --> 00:50:01,893
be very leery of the quote-unquote alternative media, because you don't think the CIA has figured

599
00:50:01,893 --> 00:50:07,893
out a way to infiltrate that and get control. And we, you know, and there's been scandals lately of

600
00:50:07,893 --> 00:50:14,533
big influencers getting paid to promote stuff. So there's, you know, I'm currently not paid by

601
00:50:14,533 --> 00:50:19,173
anyone to promote anything. I'm just, you know, trying to, you know, I get paid by selling my

602
00:50:19,173 --> 00:50:24,613
economic research. I don't get paid by telling you how to vote or think about something. I'm

603
00:50:24,613 --> 00:50:28,373
skimming my raw opinion, but there's a lot of influencers out there that are getting paid.

604
00:50:28,373 --> 00:50:29,953
I'm getting paid

605
00:50:29,953 --> 00:50:32,553
but by advertisers to push Bitcoin products

606
00:50:32,553 --> 00:50:34,173
that's my propaganda

607
00:50:34,173 --> 00:50:35,173
that's called sponsorship

608
00:50:35,173 --> 00:50:38,352
you're not getting paid to push a tweet

609
00:50:38,352 --> 00:50:39,253
on

610
00:50:39,253 --> 00:50:42,193
India or Coke

611
00:50:42,193 --> 00:50:42,933
no

612
00:50:42,933 --> 00:50:45,193
and not disclose it

613
00:50:45,193 --> 00:50:46,873
it's about disclosure

614
00:50:46,873 --> 00:50:47,832
and that's the

615
00:50:47,832 --> 00:50:51,053
I mean obviously Fog of War

616
00:50:51,053 --> 00:50:53,793
this whole like Bill Ackman Hampton story

617
00:50:53,793 --> 00:50:56,073
B.B. Netanyahu

618
00:50:56,073 --> 00:50:56,873
trying to pay

619
00:50:56,873 --> 00:51:02,673
media organizations and influencers to talk a certain way about Israel.

620
00:51:03,133 --> 00:51:03,973
It's very clear.

621
00:51:04,053 --> 00:51:07,733
That's definitely happening in alternative independent media.

622
00:51:07,953 --> 00:51:09,033
I mean, if you're just,

623
00:51:09,453 --> 00:51:11,733
if you have more than two brain cells and you're aware,

624
00:51:12,093 --> 00:51:17,653
you just look at the road shows that some people go on and the shows that

625
00:51:17,653 --> 00:51:21,153
they'll go on on that road show and they turn out to be the same.

626
00:51:25,332 --> 00:51:25,973
Oh yeah.

627
00:51:25,973 --> 00:51:36,393
No, this is – we're in the fog of war and just step – again, I, like yourself, was very emotional the first two days.

628
00:51:36,573 --> 00:51:41,993
And I made a point of not saying what I actually – how I felt.

629
00:51:43,153 --> 00:51:45,773
And so it's called about having some discernment and self-control.

630
00:51:46,233 --> 00:51:52,253
But when you feel yourself enraged or emotional, step back, realize this is what they want.

631
00:51:52,253 --> 00:51:57,593
They want you to think emotionally and just come back to the 30,000 foot view.

632
00:51:57,673 --> 00:51:58,733
This is a class issue.

633
00:51:59,193 --> 00:51:59,673
That's it.

634
00:52:00,573 --> 00:52:06,233
And when you think that way and you say, what do I have in common with an oligarch worth $100 billion?

635
00:52:07,373 --> 00:52:08,293
Absolutely nothing.

636
00:52:09,953 --> 00:52:14,873
And that's, again, this is rhyming with the conversation I have with Jessica.

637
00:52:15,253 --> 00:52:19,253
If and when the next economic crisis materialize.

638
00:52:19,253 --> 00:52:27,293
I think that's going to be really – that's going to determine, obviously, where we go for decades.

639
00:52:27,493 --> 00:52:34,793
But in 2008, it was bail out the boomers and screw the millennials and all that.

640
00:52:34,873 --> 00:52:37,693
But I think this time around, it's going to be a decision.

641
00:52:37,813 --> 00:52:39,193
Do we bail out the boomers yet again?

642
00:52:39,332 --> 00:52:44,233
Or do we give the millennials and the Zoomers a chance to actually do something with their lives and build wealth?

643
00:52:45,393 --> 00:52:48,413
The other thing is historically, there's precedence for this.

644
00:52:48,413 --> 00:52:58,813
If you look, when wealth gaps like this get created and they take a long time to manifest, and we're at one now, they're settled one of two ways.

645
00:52:58,993 --> 00:53:13,493
There's an existential threat to the owners of the wealth, like the French Revolution, or there is a reset, like the Great Depression and the big new deal, the New Deal economics.

646
00:53:13,493 --> 00:53:16,413
They share again with the middle class.

647
00:53:16,413 --> 00:53:19,993
those are the only two options you have.

648
00:53:20,633 --> 00:53:23,553
So it's going to be interesting to see how they go.

649
00:53:23,953 --> 00:53:29,253
I think it should be very interesting for people to understand why do they want to create

650
00:53:29,253 --> 00:53:31,313
a digital control grid system?

651
00:53:31,753 --> 00:53:37,793
Because they want to avoid the French Revolution, and they want to probably not give you a good

652
00:53:37,793 --> 00:53:38,313
new deal.

653
00:53:38,313 --> 00:53:46,173
So this whole digital currency thing, Palantir, this 24-7 surveillance, that

654
00:53:46,173 --> 00:53:55,713
And the obsession with that, that is a real thing, and they probably don't want to give us a new deal, is my guess.

655
00:53:55,773 --> 00:54:00,653
And they're racing to get that system in place.

656
00:54:00,753 --> 00:54:09,473
And that's why you have to resist any kind of calls for, like we saw Pambon, you talk about hate speech, which is, you know, Charlie Kirk said that was nonsense.

657
00:54:10,173 --> 00:54:12,332
Anything that curtails our speech, no.

658
00:54:12,332 --> 00:54:16,373
Anything that gives us less choice and options like digital currencies, no.

659
00:54:18,513 --> 00:54:22,233
I'm a freedom-loving individual, and I know what's coming, and they're going to try.

660
00:54:23,332 --> 00:54:28,493
I mean, these people cannot admit that the system is – that they screwed it up.

661
00:54:29,133 --> 00:54:33,113
And in the collapse, they're going to blame everybody but themselves and try to control and take everything.

662
00:54:33,113 --> 00:54:44,133
But, Ed, Alex Karp stood up in L.A. last week at the All-In Summit and promised us that Palantir is not surveilling or spying on individual American citizens.

663
00:54:44,332 --> 00:54:44,933
We'll never do that.

664
00:54:45,352 --> 00:54:47,053
I don't believe that for a second.

665
00:54:47,673 --> 00:54:50,573
We have him on record saying crazy things.

666
00:54:52,073 --> 00:55:02,013
And these people – you've got to remember these people live in bubbles, and they all talk amongst each other, and they're super wealthy, and they think it's a chess game.

667
00:55:02,013 --> 00:55:09,753
they really do yeah well and it's just like i was sitting there i was watching that i mean

668
00:55:09,753 --> 00:55:14,013
for a second i was like oh wow maybe i misunderstood palantir and then it's like wait a second you

669
00:55:14,013 --> 00:55:21,852
like literally use metadata to track and identify and then ultimately uh target people with attacks

670
00:55:21,852 --> 00:55:27,933
like how there's how do you how can you do that without surveilling people and it's uh

671
00:55:27,933 --> 00:55:35,393
it's like blatant in your face gaslighting if you will and i think palantir i mean this is i've

672
00:55:35,393 --> 00:55:40,913
talked about this with whitney webb and she gets a lot of backlash for it but you have sex to the

673
00:55:40,913 --> 00:55:46,693
right which i'm um i sort of sympathize with to a certain degree like in terms of you got to be

674
00:55:46,693 --> 00:55:54,013
optimistic can't always be dooming but um if you look at the paypal palantir tesla mafia that is

675
00:55:54,013 --> 00:56:01,653
now sort of in control in terms of the influential cognoscenti behind the Trump administration

676
00:56:01,653 --> 00:56:02,693
from the tech sector.

677
00:56:03,852 --> 00:56:09,013
They're not really working on things that give us more freedom at the end of the day.

678
00:56:10,473 --> 00:56:10,852
No, they're not.

679
00:56:10,953 --> 00:56:14,113
And look, I'm not in the black pill community.

680
00:56:14,273 --> 00:56:15,173
I think there's always hope.

681
00:56:15,173 --> 00:56:23,053
But there's also such grand systemic cycle things out of our control going on that, you

682
00:56:23,053 --> 00:56:30,473
You do what you can, but also build – I was talking to Catherine Austin Fitz, veteran in Maui a couple weeks ago.

683
00:56:31,332 --> 00:56:32,473
And I agree with her.

684
00:56:32,473 --> 00:56:39,593
And I said this years ago, build new systems, build new communities like you're doing.

685
00:56:40,073 --> 00:56:46,673
And just kind of don't get too freaked out by what's going on that you can't control.

686
00:56:46,773 --> 00:56:47,773
Try to control what you can.

687
00:56:48,233 --> 00:56:50,133
No, I really appreciate Catherine.

688
00:56:50,693 --> 00:56:51,953
I've never had her on the show.

689
00:56:51,953 --> 00:56:56,293
I know she's highly skeptical of Bitcoin and thinks it's a CIA project.

690
00:56:56,933 --> 00:57:04,573
It's unfortunate to me that she does because I think I could sit down with her for an hour and sort of walk her through how it's pretty obvious that it's not.

691
00:57:05,053 --> 00:57:08,373
She would be a Bitcoin advocate, but that's why I do what I do.

692
00:57:08,453 --> 00:57:17,113
It's like we need to create these opt-out options for people to escape the system that they're trying to trap you in.

693
00:57:17,852 --> 00:57:18,693
That's one of those.

694
00:57:18,693 --> 00:57:24,253
and and i think a current she talked about a currency that i talked about a couple years ago

695
00:57:24,253 --> 00:57:28,433
but the currency of personal relationships will become more important in trust and integrity

696
00:57:28,433 --> 00:57:33,313
uh in a world where there's not that that seems to be lacking quite a bit

697
00:57:33,313 --> 00:57:38,832
and surround yourself with people that you can trust and like uh that have the same values and

698
00:57:38,832 --> 00:57:45,073
and and you know my friend group is pretty well vetted so no one would say anything stupid

699
00:57:45,073 --> 00:57:50,773
about charlie kirk but if if i i said openly on twitter that and any acquaintance that says

700
00:57:50,773 --> 00:57:56,332
anything stupid like that you know i'm not gonna i'm not gonna like scream at him just to say like

701
00:57:56,332 --> 00:58:00,693
i can no longer associate with you just kind of quietly walk away you know you don't give it

702
00:58:00,693 --> 00:58:07,553
energy you just you just don't give it zero energy like you're no longer worthy of my interactions

703
00:58:07,553 --> 00:58:13,933
now that i said that an hour ago on rabbit hole recap the show i just did that like that's

704
00:58:13,933 --> 00:58:27,413
I think to your point of recognize we're in the fog of war, recognize they're trying to divide to divide us because that you're not giving your energy to those people because that's what the evil side feeds off of.

705
00:58:27,413 --> 00:58:28,133
Is that negative?

706
00:58:28,513 --> 00:58:34,033
You don't want to hurt them, but you just you just you give them zero energy.

707
00:58:34,473 --> 00:58:36,653
And that's that's how that's how you stop this.

708
00:58:36,793 --> 00:58:38,193
They want they want energy.

709
00:58:38,793 --> 00:58:42,133
The people that are angry want you to engage with them.

710
00:58:42,213 --> 00:58:43,133
They want to argue.

711
00:58:43,133 --> 00:58:44,473
They want to yell at you.

712
00:58:44,893 --> 00:58:49,133
But nothing hurts these people more than being ignored.

713
00:58:51,213 --> 00:58:52,533
Develop the courage to ignore.

714
00:58:53,013 --> 00:58:56,653
Ed, thank you for coming back on the show.

715
00:58:56,873 --> 00:59:01,093
I think a timely week for an update with Ed Dowd.

716
00:59:01,233 --> 00:59:02,373
So I appreciate your time.

717
00:59:02,553 --> 00:59:05,293
And yeah, stay frosty out there, everybody.

718
00:59:05,393 --> 00:59:08,253
It seems like, I mean, it doesn't seem.

719
00:59:08,253 --> 00:59:14,033
It's very obvious that things are foreshadowing to, I think, some singularity at some point in the future.

720
00:59:14,533 --> 00:59:22,113
And it's going to involve many things, financial, social, liberty-oriented things.

721
00:59:22,413 --> 00:59:24,693
So I think keep a clear mind.

722
00:59:27,733 --> 00:59:29,893
Thank you for having me on, Marty. Great to be here.

723
00:59:29,913 --> 00:59:31,173
All right. Peace and love, freaks.