1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,920
You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

2
00:00:10,780 --> 00:00:13,040
You talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

3
00:00:13,500 --> 00:00:15,700
All the central banks going nuts.

4
00:00:16,380 --> 00:00:17,880
So it's all acting like safe haven.

5
00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:23,920
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,

6
00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:25,260
Bitcoin wins.

7
00:00:25,340 --> 00:00:28,460
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

8
00:00:28,460 --> 00:00:31,380
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

9
00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,240
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

10
00:00:36,700 --> 00:00:38,900
Jordy Visser, thank you for joining me.

11
00:00:39,860 --> 00:00:40,940
Good to be here, Marty.

12
00:00:41,420 --> 00:00:46,420
As I was saying, I've been a big fan of your weekly updates.

13
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:51,160
I think you're on top of converging trends better than most people right now,

14
00:00:51,160 --> 00:00:59,140
particularly as it pertains to AI, Bitcoin, broader crypto, and how it's actually affecting

15
00:00:59,140 --> 00:01:05,180
the markets right now. And I think a good jumping off point for this conversation

16
00:01:05,180 --> 00:01:09,880
is something that you've been talking about a lot, which is this dislocation between leading

17
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:15,880
economic indicators and what's actually happening in the sense that many indicators that people have

18
00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:22,620
been depending on for decades seem to be sending off alarm bells that things may not all be well.

19
00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:28,820
But I think your thesis is that AI is having an overwhelming effect on the market that is making

20
00:01:28,820 --> 00:01:36,340
those what have been dependable indicators independable right now. Yeah, it's actually

21
00:01:36,340 --> 00:01:45,220
interesting. I'll go backwards a little bit so people can understand the rationale behind it,

22
00:01:45,220 --> 00:01:52,680
Because I think it's one of the more important points and there's a jumping off point where I really started to recognize.

23
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:58,800
I grew up in the business starting in the early 90s as a macro person.

24
00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,160
I traded emerging markets throughout the 90s.

25
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:09,760
And I spent a lot of time with the history of the LEI, Leading Economic Indicators, and Jeffrey Moore.

26
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:16,040
because not a lot of people follow it, but it was a extremely useful tool a long time ago to

27
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:21,220
predict. And this is why it was created to help the government see when the economy was slowing

28
00:02:21,220 --> 00:02:27,860
down. So monetary policy wouldn't be as late and fiscal policy wouldn't be as late. So you kind of

29
00:02:27,860 --> 00:02:35,120
fast forward to 1980, the LEI came out in the 60s and something really important changed. And the

30
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:41,140
personal computer came out, then the internet in the 90s. And then we obviously started to get into

31
00:02:41,140 --> 00:02:48,400
the true internet boom in the 2000s and the software and smartphone boom that kind of took

32
00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:54,620
over the 2009 to 2010 period. So what I've basically said is that the economy has been

33
00:02:54,620 --> 00:02:58,940
changing. So if you go back to when the LEI was created, it was basically an industrial economy

34
00:02:58,940 --> 00:03:04,820
and that was it. There was no digital economy because we didn't have the personal computer yet.

35
00:03:04,820 --> 00:03:19,560
So if you go from really the beginning or the end of the Great Depression and you start going back in history and learning how the government would try to measure the concept of GDP, the actual index was created in the 1930s by Simon Kuznets.

36
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:25,880
So this stuff was all meant to be around tangible assets, tangible goods, tangible transactions.

37
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:34,560
And obviously, as the digital economy started to grow, let's assume it was less than 1% of the US economy by 1990.

38
00:03:35,620 --> 00:03:39,820
Then the internet comes and it's growing rapidly, but from such a small base.

39
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:45,020
And this will resonate with people that have been involved in Bitcoin since 2009.

40
00:03:45,260 --> 00:03:46,500
It was a very small asset.

41
00:03:46,620 --> 00:03:47,200
It's grown bigger.

42
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,120
Well, the digital economy has grown bigger as well.

43
00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:55,380
So what happens is the industrial economy still has a lot of people working in it, still has a lot of debt in it.

44
00:03:55,800 --> 00:04:05,100
So the reason the LEI is no longer sending off good signals is really one important event occurred in 2007 to 2009 when the great financial crisis happened.

45
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,660
The digital economy, in my opinion, forced that event to occur.

46
00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:17,940
It created a situation where you had so much debt for other companies that were already seeing their businesses being disrupted.

47
00:04:17,940 --> 00:04:39,700
And most people don't think of it that way. But go to the last time you actually used a bank teller. That was before the Great Financial Crisis. So we've been having disruptions for a long time. And when the Great Financial Crisis happened, the government had to stand up and assume the debt. And so we went from $9 trillion in debt for the U.S. government back in 2007 to where we are today, which is a massive problem.

48
00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:44,900
Bitcoin white paper comes out just after Lehman Brothers and all these events kind of come in.

49
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:50,840
So what's happened is now we're left with a an industrial economy, which is relatively big,

50
00:04:50,840 --> 00:04:56,940
but not growing anymore and shrinking a government, which is there to balloon or take over

51
00:04:56,940 --> 00:05:01,880
that part of the economy. And then you've got the digital economy, which is growing extremely fast,

52
00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:06,880
but has no debt and very few people. And that's where we're at. And that's why the LEI is no

53
00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:11,600
longer useful signal because the industrial economy is not what's generating the wealth

54
00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:17,460
and the growth evident in the S&P 500 consumption and actually the disruption. It's only going to

55
00:05:17,460 --> 00:05:22,180
get worse from here. So that's the reason why when I spend time on, hey, how can the LEI be

56
00:05:22,180 --> 00:05:27,020
trading 35 months in a row at a level that historically was always a recession and not

57
00:05:27,020 --> 00:05:30,660
have one? And the reason is because the digital economy is really supporting the market and

58
00:05:30,660 --> 00:05:38,960
growing along with the government economy. And so this is a combination of watching your

59
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:45,580
updates, obviously being immersed in Bitcoin for years, investing in the space and really

60
00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:52,160
studying Bitcoin. And over the last three years, AI has proliferated using those tools,

61
00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:57,320
incorporating them into my workflow, into our business here at TFTC and at 1031.

62
00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:03,020
And the sentiment, I think you do a really good job pulling this out.

63
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,380
It's equally unnerving and exciting at the same time because there's so much potential.

64
00:06:08,260 --> 00:06:22,520
But if you use the tools, you understand what they do to your business, and you extrapolate that out to not only small, medium-sized businesses, but large corporations, the S&P 500, the disruption is going to be massive.

65
00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,000
But at the same time, there's these incredible opportunities.

66
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:32,100
So how are you thinking about approaching this disruption and navigating this transition?

67
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:41,600
Well, the first thing you said to start this off, equally unnerving and whatever upside word you want to use for the potential.

68
00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,940
Philosophically, I just have that viewpoint in life.

69
00:06:47,260 --> 00:06:53,020
There's nothing that goes on that isn't just a relationship between those two things.

70
00:06:53,640 --> 00:07:04,660
I wrote a substack recently that was all about a quote that I gave to my oldest daughter that I've used throughout, which is life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.

71
00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,260
And I still believe that.

72
00:07:06,260 --> 00:07:14,420
So for me, that means that there's no way to change the reality of artificial intelligence and what it means.

73
00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,500
You can either sit back and let it eat you up like all innovations.

74
00:07:18,500 --> 00:07:48,480
You know, I reference since you watch my videos, I reference Joseph Schumpeter a lot, who, you know, is the father of creative destruction. And if you go back and read his works, and most of them were in the 30s and 40s. So almost 100 years ago, he talked about how capitalism will eventually cannibalize itself through creative destruction, that innovation will continue to go more rapidly, it'll destroy more jobs, it'll continue to, you know, like a tsunami, take everything in its path.

75
00:07:48,500 --> 00:07:56,140
path. And as individuals that are in the workforce, I try to teach my kids the balance in life is that

76
00:07:56,140 --> 00:08:00,600
work is not your identity. Your identity is you get one life to enjoy it and you have to go through

77
00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:07,880
it. And I see that with Bitcoin. I've mentioned in the few times that I've gone, I started with

78
00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,600
Raul Powell and I obviously have a long-term relationship because we both had similar

79
00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,800
roles on Wall Street. And then as time has gone on, I've built a very strong relationship with

80
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,940
Anthony Pompliano. And between those two, I've been to events and I've met a lot of people that

81
00:08:20,940 --> 00:08:25,300
have been there. And so I think the people that have found Bitcoin find it for both hope, they

82
00:08:25,300 --> 00:08:31,520
find it for entertainment in terms of meme coins and trading, and they find it for hopefully

83
00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:37,100
creating wealth. Well, that's really what the old world was when you went to school, you got a job,

84
00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,640
you hope to move up to corporate ladder. But it sounds kind of boring. I view this world as more

85
00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:46,460
exciting. And I think if people embrace artificial intelligence and they just spend time with it and

86
00:08:46,460 --> 00:08:51,580
build a relationship with it, they can be part of the creative destruction as opposed to sitting

87
00:08:51,580 --> 00:08:57,800
there and watching the tsunami come in. And so I try to do the videos to both inspire, let's say,

88
00:08:57,860 --> 00:09:03,620
peers, but probably more importantly for the peers who've already made money to make sure that their

89
00:09:03,620 --> 00:09:08,340
kids are prepared for it. Because it will, if you're just sitting there trying to take it on and

90
00:09:08,340 --> 00:09:14,520
doubt it, believe it's hype, you're going to get swept over by the wave. And I'm trying to make

91
00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:18,220
sure that people do it. So I don't think it's any different than the past. I just think innovation

92
00:09:18,220 --> 00:09:23,460
is moving at a faster pace this time. Yeah. No, I was tweeting this out last week. I've been

93
00:09:23,460 --> 00:09:31,460
experimenting with VibeCoding. We VibeCoded a browser extension that converts any US dollar

94
00:09:31,460 --> 00:09:36,820
or any fiat price you see on the web into Bitcoin. And it took me like three hours on a Saturday

95
00:09:36,820 --> 00:09:39,440
to create the prototype for that.

96
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,500
And then we iterated on it and launched it about a month and a half ago.

97
00:09:42,940 --> 00:09:45,460
And it's crazy to see that we were able to do that

98
00:09:45,460 --> 00:09:50,060
with a very minimal capital investment in actually building a product

99
00:09:50,060 --> 00:09:55,800
and just talking with people who are really immersed in AI

100
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,440
in terms of incorporating it into their business flows.

101
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:05,820
We have teams of two in the portfolio that are building extremely complex applications

102
00:10:05,820 --> 00:10:07,800
just by leveraging AI.

103
00:10:08,060 --> 00:10:11,120
They're extending the productivity of the individual

104
00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,820
by orders of magnitude with these tools.

105
00:10:15,020 --> 00:10:17,800
And then I'm not sure if you caught Amjad Massad

106
00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:22,140
on Joe Rogan, but I watched that.

107
00:10:22,420 --> 00:10:25,400
And I'm coming through, there's this doomerism that exists

108
00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:29,180
with people looking at AI and saying it's going to

109
00:10:29,180 --> 00:10:32,080
really take the humanity out of things.

110
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,620
And I think it's actually the opposite, where, to your point,

111
00:10:35,620 --> 00:10:42,780
If you have the agency and the ability to experiment and the will to experiment with these tools, it can actually unleash human creativity.

112
00:10:43,700 --> 00:10:57,060
And I think that is going to be the differentiator moving forward as you give AI all the basically data inputs and sort of complex analyst jobs that are a bit monotonous and that people are doing right now.

113
00:10:57,060 --> 00:10:59,580
Some of them are making a lot of money, but it's really soul sucking.

114
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:05,720
And you leverage AI to pull out your creativity and bring something to the world with these tools.

115
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:14,220
Yeah, it's again, I guess for everyone, it depends on what they they find entertaining.

116
00:11:14,780 --> 00:11:19,880
I know. Artificial intelligence has replaced a lot of.

117
00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:26,080
the activities I did that I probably didn't realize how mindless they were, where I used them to

118
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:32,460
almost rest my brain. Things like TV and, you know, anything along those lines where I wasn't

119
00:11:32,460 --> 00:11:37,400
learning. I'm an insatiable learner, but learning was more challenging before artificial intelligence.

120
00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:41,060
You had to, you know, you had to go digging for it. You had to go find what you wanted.

121
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:46,240
I'm more of a, and always have been a conversationalist. I get bored very easily.

122
00:11:46,240 --> 00:12:02,560
So if I can sit across the table from someone extremely intelligent to where they I leave the conversation after one hour and there might be, you know, nine new places that I'm going to go dig into, nine new holes for me to go down.

123
00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:08,420
I call them dots. I love it. But unfortunately, that that doesn't happen that often.

124
00:12:08,420 --> 00:12:15,440
And so if I'm at a dinner, particularly on Wall Street, and I get bored by the people there, I want to leave.

125
00:12:15,660 --> 00:12:17,400
And then my empathy is like, you can't get up.

126
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:18,800
It's rude to just get up and leave.

127
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:20,880
But I view it as a waste of two hours.

128
00:12:21,140 --> 00:12:24,700
Now with artificial intelligence, I get to talk to the smartest person all day long.

129
00:12:24,780 --> 00:12:36,140
There is never a boring conversation, which means if you like learning, if you like, you know, being a child again, where we learn most of the things, it's really easy to do.

130
00:12:36,140 --> 00:13:00,280
So I can consume, you know, 50 books a week. And I would say at this point, between podcasts and books, I can consume about 50 a week. Now, am I listening to every single minute of every single podcast? No, because I'm getting the transcripts in a lot of cases. If there's fluff, if it's someone who's engaging, and I want to sit there because it helps me walk around the park and listen to it, then I will.

131
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:05,280
But if I get bored by it, I download the transcript and then I have a conversation with Chachi PT about it.

132
00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:16,120
And until you do that, until you kind of experience what it would be like to talk to a documentary as opposed to watching a documentary and realizing how you can actually get the parts that you want to get.

133
00:13:16,680 --> 00:13:18,900
I don't think people have fully embraced artificial intelligence.

134
00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,320
It is the single best entertainment tool for me that I've ever seen.

135
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:26,460
it's like walking into a virtual library and just having everything in front of your eyes

136
00:13:26,460 --> 00:13:32,200
or Ironman and watching Jarvis in front of Tony Stark. I mean, it's just an amazing thing. So I

137
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:36,420
get excited about it. It's been one of the greatest times for me since ChatGPT was launched.

138
00:13:36,420 --> 00:13:40,460
What's up, Freaks? This rep at TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at CoinKite.

139
00:13:40,820 --> 00:13:45,840
They make the Cold Card Q my favorite hardware wallet, the most secure hardware wallet on the

140
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:51,940
market. As you can see, it's got the BlackBerry form factor, full keyboard. It's got two secure

141
00:13:51,940 --> 00:13:55,540
enclaves, you create your private public keys offline.

142
00:13:56,020 --> 00:14:00,060
The device never has to go online, never does go online. So you keep your Bitcoin

143
00:14:00,060 --> 00:14:04,000
secure. If you have your Bitcoin on exchanges and you're looking

144
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,560
to get it off, secure it in the best way possible. Pick up a cold card queue.

145
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,620
Go to coinkite.com, find the cold card queue, use the code

146
00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:15,640
TFTC for 5% off. If you're a power user of Bitcoin

147
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,720
like I am, if you're running a business on a Bitcoin standard,

148
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,780
if you're just a Bitcoiner who wants to secure your Bitcoin,

149
00:14:22,140 --> 00:14:24,200
get the most secure hardware wallet on the market.

150
00:14:24,340 --> 00:14:25,240
Go get the cold card queue.

151
00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:26,340
It's a beautiful thing.

152
00:14:26,740 --> 00:14:27,260
Sup, freaks?

153
00:14:27,580 --> 00:14:28,060
Guess what?

154
00:14:28,460 --> 00:14:29,840
We launched a browser extension.

155
00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:31,300
It's called Opportunity Cost,

156
00:14:31,380 --> 00:14:33,360
and it helps you see the true cost of everything in Bitcoin,

157
00:14:33,940 --> 00:14:35,920
convert prices to Bitcoin as you browse the web.

158
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:40,060
Opportunity Cost automatically displays fiat prices in Bitcoin or sats,

159
00:14:40,420 --> 00:14:42,040
helping you think in a Bitcoin standard.

160
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:48,260
It works on Amazon, Zillow, X, your bank account, QuickBooks.

161
00:14:48,260 --> 00:14:49,640
so you can convert everything to Bitcoin.

162
00:14:49,740 --> 00:14:50,240
It's really cool.

163
00:14:50,620 --> 00:14:53,640
It's also 100% open source MIT license.

164
00:14:54,140 --> 00:14:55,480
We don't collect any data.

165
00:14:56,140 --> 00:14:58,500
All of the conversions happen in your browser,

166
00:14:58,640 --> 00:14:59,620
on your local device.

167
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,560
It's a great way to recalibrate your life

168
00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,520
and begin thinking in sats.

169
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,500
Go check it out at opportunitycost.app.

170
00:15:07,940 --> 00:15:10,340
That's opportunitycost.app.

171
00:15:10,740 --> 00:15:14,120
And so bringing this back to hard data,

172
00:15:14,420 --> 00:15:15,940
anecdotally, we're using it

173
00:15:15,940 --> 00:15:33,950
and incorporating it into our everyday lives But what are you seeing in terms of the early adopters let the MAG or how do you view its effect on these large corporations and even smaller sort of upstarts that could potentially disrupt them

174
00:15:34,610 --> 00:15:38,190
And how is it beginning to materialize in the economic data?

175
00:15:39,550 --> 00:15:43,710
So there's a few things happening that have already gone through.

176
00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:51,950
First of all, starting with the personal computer, we have seen profit margins in the U.S. in particular just continue to climb higher.

177
00:15:52,830 --> 00:15:56,910
I don't think people have fully recognized that it started really with the personal computer.

178
00:15:57,050 --> 00:16:01,370
It accelerated with the Internet, with the smartphone, and it's continuing to go.

179
00:16:01,510 --> 00:16:06,250
Now, the S&P 500 is something people, you know, they understand.

180
00:16:06,410 --> 00:16:07,390
They're invested in it.

181
00:16:08,090 --> 00:16:11,130
I don't think they fully grasp the other angle.

182
00:16:11,130 --> 00:16:33,390
So let's just say the S&P 500, by definition, these are incumbents. And they may not be old incumbents because the Mag-7, many of them are less than 20 years old. I think at this point, except for maybe Apple, all of them are under 30 years. And the size of them is just amazing.

183
00:16:33,390 --> 00:16:39,710
So they've taken advantage and they've been the early names that companies that have benefited from it.

184
00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:47,150
And they will continue to benefit less so than they have because their spending is now insane and will remain insane.

185
00:16:47,410 --> 00:16:54,210
They're going to get because of the big, beautiful bill, a lot of depreciation side on their CapEx, which will help their earnings and profit margins stay high.

186
00:16:54,430 --> 00:16:56,550
But there's an interesting thing that's happening.

187
00:16:56,810 --> 00:17:01,670
And, you know, this fact was brought to me and it fits in with the thesis I have towards Bitcoin.

188
00:17:01,670 --> 00:17:12,850
But at the same time that we have these incumbents that have done well, 81% of the companies in the U.S. that are bigger than at least 100 million are private companies.

189
00:17:13,690 --> 00:17:17,950
And so startups are starting to have the ability to, you know, you mentioned VibeCoding.

190
00:17:18,110 --> 00:17:19,790
Let's go to something like Cursor.

191
00:17:20,330 --> 00:17:27,290
Cursor has grown rapidly faster than almost any company in history to 500 million ARR, faster than OpenAI.

192
00:17:28,030 --> 00:17:30,370
And I don't think most people even know what Cursor does.

193
00:17:30,370 --> 00:17:58,750
But when you start getting to the point that artificial intelligence allows companies to grow extremely fast with revenues and at the same time without people, without debt, you've reached a very, very important moment where the question is, will Cursor, which I think they will, have so much competition going forward that at some point they'll peak at some ARR and maybe their business will slow down after growing so rapidly?

194
00:17:58,750 --> 00:18:12,350
If you think about it in crypto terms, you've seen that a lot. I'll use Axie Infinity as something that just boomed back in 2023 into 2024, and then you never hear of it again as a game.

195
00:18:12,350 --> 00:18:26,190
I think there's going to be a lot of, quote unquote, booms that then you forget about because competition is now everywhere. And I think gradually over time, the incumbents which make up the S&P 500 will be under extreme attack, and I don't think they're going to be replaced.

196
00:18:26,190 --> 00:18:30,810
And that's the big thing that I haven't really spent a lot of time already on my videos yet.

197
00:18:30,970 --> 00:18:37,890
I think this past weekend, the title of it was a graveyard for the 2030s will be a graveyard for the Fortune 500.

198
00:18:38,110 --> 00:18:46,950
And that's really where this ends for me is that the incumbents will not be replaced because I think tokenization and the crypto world will allow these companies to remain private.

199
00:18:47,290 --> 00:18:52,750
And the S&P 500 in public companies will stop growing, but the private stuff will continue to grow.

200
00:18:52,750 --> 00:18:57,210
yeah i i would love to dig into this because you're beginning to see

201
00:18:57,210 --> 00:19:01,670
this manifest particularly it was a company like stripe uh i think the

202
00:19:01,670 --> 00:19:06,570
collison brothers were on all in earlier this year and the all-in

203
00:19:06,570 --> 00:19:09,150
guys were pressuring them about when they're going to go public and

204
00:19:09,150 --> 00:19:11,430
they very i wouldn't say flippantly but

205
00:19:11,430 --> 00:19:14,950
nonchalantly we're like ah it's not really a priority for us we're going to

206
00:19:14,950 --> 00:19:17,670
stay private for as long as possible and i

207
00:19:17,670 --> 00:19:20,490
think that's a company you look at it's the

208
00:19:20,490 --> 00:19:25,070
market for secondary shares of Stripe is pretty liquid. And so it's not a problem for them,

209
00:19:25,650 --> 00:19:31,330
for early investors or employees who've exercised their options to liquidate their shares,

210
00:19:31,330 --> 00:19:36,310
to realize some of the value that they've accrued. And it's something we think a lot

211
00:19:36,310 --> 00:19:42,630
about 1031. And one of the questions we get asked most is like, what's the goal? What's the path

212
00:19:42,630 --> 00:19:47,090
to monetization? Is it going public ultimately? And some companies it may be, but there are

213
00:19:47,090 --> 00:19:52,790
many founders beginning to think like, should we stay private for longer? What is the path

214
00:19:52,790 --> 00:19:58,250
towards monetization for early investors? Is going public the end all be all? I think

215
00:19:58,250 --> 00:20:07,170
the tenor amongst founders today is not sure if that's the end all be all for us particularly,

216
00:20:07,170 --> 00:20:14,590
which is really interesting and a changing dynamic. Yeah. Again, I think monetization

217
00:20:14,590 --> 00:20:21,130
was a function of the old capital structure. You had to do it because you had to take in money. But

218
00:20:21,130 --> 00:20:27,410
I don't know what Cursor's capital structure looks like. I think the company's only three

219
00:20:27,410 --> 00:20:33,970
or four years old. But let's assume they didn't have to take in any money and they just built

220
00:20:33,970 --> 00:20:40,170
the business from zero the way it is today. If you get to 500 million of ARR and your expenses

221
00:20:40,170 --> 00:20:43,930
are extremely low, why do you ever have to monetize? You are monetizing. It's out of your

222
00:20:43,930 --> 00:20:50,710
revenues. It's not out of the value of the business. So I'm not really sure if people

223
00:20:50,710 --> 00:20:58,270
have really thought through the concept of what monetization actually is. I come from the hedge

224
00:20:58,270 --> 00:21:03,570
fund world. I know plenty of hedge funds that have remained private the entire time and their

225
00:21:03,570 --> 00:21:11,370
founders are making over a billion dollars a year out of the revenue. So I'm not really sure people

226
00:21:11,370 --> 00:21:19,590
have thought through this. I understand why a private equity firm, a VC firm, large investors,

227
00:21:20,050 --> 00:21:26,130
companies that have had to just continually raise money. But if founders are able to take

228
00:21:26,130 --> 00:21:31,570
$100 million out of their business, and Larry Ellison, I think, was the first person that said,

229
00:21:31,770 --> 00:21:37,070
you know, once you get to a net worth of, you know, whatever it was, half a billion dollars,

230
00:21:37,070 --> 00:21:41,790
you really can't spend the money the rest of your life anyway. So I really do believe this

231
00:21:41,790 --> 00:21:48,910
competition from AI will not allow businesses to grow forever. And that's the concept that I think

232
00:21:48,910 --> 00:21:54,290
people are going to have to start to get in their brains. It twists it a little bit because it's not

233
00:21:54,290 --> 00:21:58,270
something they've thought of. But that's the interesting part for me on the journey into the

234
00:21:58,270 --> 00:22:04,550
crypto world is I like, I'm a pattern recognition person. If I see my son talking about a new video

235
00:22:04,550 --> 00:22:10,310
game every three months and a new app every three months, then that's boom bust. But it's just a

236
00:22:10,310 --> 00:22:16,070
different version of it. And I think that's the world that millennials and younger kids have really

237
00:22:16,070 --> 00:22:21,610
got involved in is that you just keep moving and moving and moving and moving to the next thing.

238
00:22:21,610 --> 00:22:27,390
And a true entrepreneur can build a thousand businesses if they want. They don't have to have

239
00:22:27,390 --> 00:22:32,410
one business and then ride it into the ground and keep running it. So I think it's a different

240
00:22:32,410 --> 00:22:39,390
mindset going forward yeah i think this is manifesting there's i mean i've been sleuthing

241
00:22:39,390 --> 00:22:46,110
on like ai twitter and there's like a big a big trend of people starting holding companies and

242
00:22:46,110 --> 00:22:51,850
then having these these smaller one-off apps that they're they're producing getting the mrr arr up

243
00:22:51,850 --> 00:22:56,830
and then moving to the next thing rather quickly and so you can i could definitely see that trend

244
00:22:56,830 --> 00:23:01,230
accelerating from here. And then to your point about

245
00:23:02,210 --> 00:23:08,550
AI enabling people to just build things without having to raise in the first place,

246
00:23:10,010 --> 00:23:17,430
when you add Bitcoin as a treasury asset to this equation, things really get heady when you think

247
00:23:17,430 --> 00:23:21,190
about this part of the conversation that we're tapping into. And we've seen this within our

248
00:23:21,190 --> 00:23:28,750
portfolio at 1031. There's a number of companies. We've been pretty aggressive. We get on the cap

249
00:23:28,750 --> 00:23:35,990
table and we're very ardent about persuading founders to put a good portion of their initial

250
00:23:35,990 --> 00:23:41,310
raise into Bitcoin and hold it on the balance sheet. And many companies have listened to our

251
00:23:41,310 --> 00:23:47,050
advice there. And there are a number in the portfolio that haven't had to go back to market

252
00:23:47,050 --> 00:23:51,370
because the cash and cash equivalents in the form of Bitcoin on their balance sheet is more

253
00:23:51,370 --> 00:23:56,030
than the money they've ever raised up to this point. So you basically have this capital tool

254
00:23:56,030 --> 00:24:01,210
that allows you to be very selective with when you go to dilute yourself as a founder

255
00:24:01,210 --> 00:24:08,010
and the rest of your cap table. And when you sprinkle the productivity gains of AI into that

256
00:24:08,010 --> 00:24:14,630
and the speed to revenue that these tools can enable, it gets really insane if you have

257
00:24:14,630 --> 00:24:20,830
a founder or two co-founders that really internalize this concept of pairing the

258
00:24:20,830 --> 00:24:26,250
productivity of AI with the hard asset that is Bitcoin to really supercharge their business.

259
00:24:26,770 --> 00:24:31,350
And they're just cash flowing quickly, turning that into Bitcoin, extending their runway.

260
00:24:32,130 --> 00:24:36,730
Things can get really weird. Well, you just I think this is a

261
00:24:36,730 --> 00:24:46,430
another version of what I talk about a lot. And I still believe that this year will be a historic

262
00:24:46,430 --> 00:24:53,810
year for Bitcoin and for crypto because of the merging of AI and the speed of Bitcoin.

263
00:24:55,890 --> 00:25:02,110
Stablecoins are connecting the two worlds and allowing more money from the fiat system

264
00:25:02,110 --> 00:25:08,430
to see the spotlight. So I've kind of viewed Bitcoin just in my conversations as being a dark

265
00:25:08,430 --> 00:25:13,650
hole, a cave that most people that have the most money in the world, just not only do they not

266
00:25:13,650 --> 00:25:19,850
understand, they can't embrace it. And that'll change over time because of FOMO. I've said

267
00:25:19,850 --> 00:25:24,570
repeatedly, and I'll say it again, that the most important chart to me is Bitcoin over the MAG7.

268
00:25:24,570 --> 00:25:29,470
And that it's been doing well this year. Bitcoin has outperformed by about 15%.

269
00:25:29,470 --> 00:25:35,890
percent, as it breaks out and as it gets going, which I think will happen this year, I think it

270
00:25:35,890 --> 00:25:42,490
will force more and more of the fiat world to move into it because the fiat world is around the globe.

271
00:25:43,150 --> 00:25:48,010
Their number one asset is the MAG-7. I grouped them all together because it doesn't really matter.

272
00:25:48,110 --> 00:25:53,030
They've been the winners. So regardless of whether it's a European investor, a Chinese investor,

273
00:25:53,030 --> 00:25:58,970
an Asian, anyone around the globe, their number one asset is the MAG-7 or they haven't performed.

274
00:25:58,970 --> 00:26:10,510
So they all own it. And I think this merging the way you described it, where it's supercharging businesses that anyone that views it on the balance sheet, but also uses AI to grow their business.

275
00:26:11,250 --> 00:26:21,490
And before we get off this interview, Marty, I do want you to talk to me about an example of these holding companies because this is kind of one of those things that like I haven't seen this before.

276
00:26:21,630 --> 00:26:33,910
It makes perfect sense to me, but I'm interested in anyone or any anybody who's out there posting about it because the reality is that's a supercharged thought process, too, where it's like I don't need to create a business.

277
00:26:33,910 --> 00:26:38,110
Let me just go create a thousand little businesses that are diversified in itself.

278
00:26:38,230 --> 00:26:43,670
And let me put the revenues I'm getting that a percentage of them into Bitcoin and let the two of them grow together.

279
00:26:44,050 --> 00:26:47,570
That's the way that I've chosen my life. I could be at a hedge fund right now.

280
00:26:49,350 --> 00:26:56,770
I'm supercharging my life by spending my time on AI and having most of my net worth in crypto and in particular in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

281
00:26:56,770 --> 00:27:03,530
And I'm just focused there. So this supercharging of the two coming together this year, my side,

282
00:27:03,530 --> 00:27:06,930
because of AI agents, but the way you're describing it, it doesn't really matter.

283
00:27:07,050 --> 00:27:10,190
It's just the growth of AI and using AI and then putting money into Bitcoin,

284
00:27:10,330 --> 00:27:11,210
letting them run together.

285
00:27:11,650 --> 00:27:14,290
Serious about your Bitcoin? Start acting like it.

286
00:27:14,550 --> 00:27:16,670
Unchained just launched the Financial Freedom Bundle,

287
00:27:16,810 --> 00:27:19,190
a curated pack that includes a premium Bitcoin book,

288
00:27:19,530 --> 00:27:22,990
a new hardware wallet guide, and access to a private macro event

289
00:27:22,990 --> 00:27:24,690
with Tur Demeester, legend.

290
00:27:25,270 --> 00:27:27,250
It's time to take control of your generational wealth.

291
00:27:27,250 --> 00:27:31,290
Go to unchained.com slash TFTC to request yours.

292
00:27:31,290 --> 00:27:38,090
that's unchained.com slash tftc pretty hot package freaks go pick it up yeah so there's exactly like

293
00:27:38,090 --> 00:27:43,970
level co i think that's his name like he's a prominent a prominent vibe coder and if you go to

294
00:27:43,970 --> 00:27:49,750
his his profile on x he's got like the number of companies started in the last couple years and i

295
00:27:49,750 --> 00:27:55,290
think he tracks their mrr and arr and updates it in his profile if he's been transparent about it

296
00:27:55,290 --> 00:28:00,370
greg eisenberg is another guy that's really been i don't know if he's doing it himself but um i

297
00:28:00,370 --> 00:28:03,110
I think he's really trying to drive home this point.

298
00:28:03,270 --> 00:28:07,590
And then, I mean, TFTC, what we're doing here, we have a holdings company, the media.

299
00:28:07,750 --> 00:28:12,630
We have our media branch, but now Opportunity Costs, which is the extension we launched.

300
00:28:13,210 --> 00:28:15,050
I think we're going to create a mobile app for that.

301
00:28:15,050 --> 00:28:20,510
And that'll be like a little LLC under the holding code that is TFTC.

302
00:28:21,590 --> 00:28:27,390
And it's beautiful for me because I've built up this media brand over the last eight years.

303
00:28:27,390 --> 00:28:29,130
And we have good distribution, good reach.

304
00:28:29,130 --> 00:28:38,210
And so I think we're well positioned to leverage that distribution to get these applications into the hands of individuals.

305
00:28:38,210 --> 00:28:40,950
And I've got a team of three behind me.

306
00:28:41,030 --> 00:28:45,670
And I really just think of the idea and sort of know where the market is and they run with it.

307
00:28:45,750 --> 00:28:55,350
And then the amount of lift it takes for me personally to sort of contribute to those efforts is minimal, a couple hours a week maybe.

308
00:28:55,350 --> 00:28:57,890
And then they're able to do the work.

309
00:28:57,890 --> 00:29:04,390
And it's pretty low risk, potentially high reward in terms of we're able to use the cash flows from the media to fund all this.

310
00:29:04,590 --> 00:29:10,350
And if it works out, you just add a diversified revenue stream to the holdings go.

311
00:29:10,690 --> 00:29:13,990
And we're a Bitcoin treasury company as well, private one.

312
00:29:14,570 --> 00:29:17,310
We would immediately roll all the cash flow into Bitcoin.

313
00:29:17,770 --> 00:29:22,570
So that's how we're thinking about it, at least.

314
00:29:23,770 --> 00:29:25,950
I think more and more businesses will keep doing it.

315
00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:26,950
It's still early in this.

316
00:29:26,950 --> 00:29:40,730
I got asked a couple of times last week with people about where we stand with Bitcoin and corporate treasury and just the mindset of more established companies as opposed to the smaller businesses.

317
00:29:41,370 --> 00:29:48,310
And, you know, I think AI is going to disrupt incumbents from the bottom up.

318
00:29:48,310 --> 00:29:57,390
And so if you're a software company like MicroStrategy was and your business is now being disrupted by AI, you're going to have to find some way to continue to grow.

319
00:29:57,630 --> 00:30:06,010
And maybe you've been successful and you have a lot of money, but now you realize there's just no way to compete with AI because they just have no people.

320
00:30:06,530 --> 00:30:14,390
The only thing that can move is fast and it's not destructible and to me is a hedge on the destruction of AI is Bitcoin.

321
00:30:14,390 --> 00:30:24,650
And I think more and more companies, just like more and more countries and more and more individuals will be forced into it because it's the only asset to me that has a moat other than gold.

322
00:30:24,810 --> 00:30:29,770
And as I've said, religion, I don't know of anything else that can survive another 5000 years.

323
00:30:29,850 --> 00:30:30,770
And Bitcoin is one of them.

324
00:30:31,250 --> 00:30:38,230
Yeah. And I mean, to this point, that I think is one of the big themes.

325
00:30:38,230 --> 00:30:52,680
You been talking about it the last couple of weeks meta developers playing insane signing bonuses plus insane comp annual comp in the nine figure range just to catch up with OpenAI and others

326
00:30:52,780 --> 00:31:04,100
And I've had conversations with people who are in pretty well established unicorns that a few years ago, many would be certain that they're going to be around for many decades.

327
00:31:04,100 --> 00:31:12,760
but internally beginning to question because especially if you have an organization with a lot of employees,

328
00:31:12,940 --> 00:31:17,860
you have a high headcount, you sort of have this managerial morass that sits between the executives

329
00:31:17,860 --> 00:31:20,100
and the people actually doing the work.

330
00:31:20,660 --> 00:31:26,220
It's going to be hard for them to be nimble enough to actually have the balls to take the risk

331
00:31:26,220 --> 00:31:29,660
to sort of gut everything and build everything from the ground up.

332
00:31:29,660 --> 00:31:56,320
And so I know a number of people in big tech that are sitting in cushy positions at companies that, again, three years ago, people would have been certain will be around in 2030, 2040, beginning to question because they're curious as if whether or not their organization actually has the intestinal fortitude and the boldness to act, to sort of gut everything and implement AI from the ground up.

333
00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:03,320
And can they actually do that considering the technical architecture of the business that they built between 2015 and today?

334
00:32:04,100 --> 00:32:19,400
Well, that's the thing about what Meta is doing and what Zuckerberg is admitting, if anyone wants to listen, is that he has an enormous fear of obsolescence at this point.

335
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,620
And that's – I mean you're dealing with one of the Mag7.

336
00:32:23,620 --> 00:32:29,840
You're dealing with a company that is bigger than the majority of countries' GDP on the planet.

337
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:38,020
And yet he's willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars, so over a billion dollars for 12 employees.

338
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,220
And yesterday he hired a senior person at Apple.

339
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,940
It really just says that he has a fear of falling behind.

340
00:32:47,300 --> 00:32:48,800
Their models are behind.

341
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:50,280
That's no doubt.

342
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:55,940
He's chosen this open source approach and he's losing.

343
00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:17,140
And so to have a company that big to fear obsolescence at its all time high in price, the same way I said at the beginning of the year, it's never happened in capitalism that one of the largest companies on the planet that had increased their market cap by one point five trillion over the prior three years would fire five percent of the workforce.

344
00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:19,280
But that's what they did at the beginning of the year.

345
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:29,900
And now they're out there chasing for more people and they're spending, I think, $70 billion approximately this year on the AI infrastructure.

346
00:33:30,180 --> 00:33:35,760
So you're dealing with a reality that, you know, you mentioned the Collison brothers.

347
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:42,160
The Stripe Sessions is one of my favorite things to watch because they give you an update.

348
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:43,620
It's their annual event.

349
00:33:43,620 --> 00:33:55,740
And they talked about how fast they were seeing their businesses, since they kind of control the startup world, grow to 5 million in ARR in the fastest time ever.

350
00:33:55,900 --> 00:34:02,040
And I think it was a drop off of about 70% in time from where the SaaS unicorns had gotten to.

351
00:34:02,700 --> 00:34:13,420
But not shown out there was also, they said, we're also seeing companies that are growing to 5 million ARR in a short amount of time also stall quicker than ever.

352
00:34:13,620 --> 00:34:34,140
And that's the other part of this. It's not just the growth, but it's how quickly competition comes on. And so I think the meta news should be taken as, again, a really negative thing for the S&P 500, that they're fearful that their business will be disrupted from one of the other MAG-7s, from whoever reaches AGI, ASI first, whatever.

353
00:34:34,700 --> 00:34:38,400
We're just in a totally different mindset than we've ever been in capitalism.

354
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:43,800
And that's why I always go back to the Schumpeter comment where eventually capitalism will eat itself.

355
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:45,660
And I think we're at that stage.

356
00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:48,100
And I think that's what is represented by what Meta is doing.

357
00:34:49,500 --> 00:34:50,320
What do you think?

358
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:57,060
Is there anything outside of the inability to expand energy generation that would slow this down in your mind?

359
00:34:58,340 --> 00:35:01,740
Just like it was for Bitcoin, the governments and the regulatory side.

360
00:35:01,740 --> 00:35:20,200
But the problem is, and this goes for Bitcoin as well, I don't think the governments in any way, shape or form we could have thought four years ago would be embracing stable coins, embracing Bitcoin to the point that they are.

361
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:26,700
AI is forcing China and the US to race faster than ever and deregulate.

362
00:35:26,700 --> 00:35:34,080
And the reason is because it is a nuclear weapon in their eyes and whoever gets it wins.

363
00:35:34,500 --> 00:35:37,200
And I don't think enough people have thought about that.

364
00:35:37,380 --> 00:35:38,740
I've had that conversation.

365
00:35:38,900 --> 00:35:40,180
I don't really get it.

366
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:46,000
I'm like, you understand if you have ASI, then everything accelerates from that day and you can't catch up.

367
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,140
Like you're just solving every single thing one by one by one.

368
00:35:49,340 --> 00:35:55,760
And then someone doesn't have the answers to the test over at another place and you get further and further ahead.

369
00:35:55,760 --> 00:36:00,280
there's no way to catch up. Now, assuming that's true and that is the benchmark that ends up

370
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,500
happening, that's great. But the fear factor between China and the US and the amount of

371
00:36:04,500 --> 00:36:10,480
spending that will go on to ensure that this race happens, power is the only thing I can see,

372
00:36:10,820 --> 00:36:17,760
that and rare earth. So commodities which fit in with the power side. I'm doing a

373
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:25,160
research report right now on copper, because I don't think, not even I don't think,

374
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:30,720
human beings have not really grasped how fast this is moving, how much power we'll need,

375
00:36:30,720 --> 00:36:36,600
which I've written about, but how much copper we need, because it's the only commodity to deal

376
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:43,040
with the electrification side of letting the energy flow out. And we don't have enough copper

377
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:50,240
right now. It takes 15 to 20 years for a new mine to come on. So the amount of copper that

378
00:36:50,240 --> 00:36:56,580
from everything I've gone through and done the numbers on, it's just enormous. So something on

379
00:36:56,580 --> 00:37:04,520
the hardware physical side will probably slow it down. And that's where my focus has shifted from

380
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:09,180
an investment standpoint is I'm much more interested in copper companies in countries

381
00:37:09,180 --> 00:37:15,820
like Brazil and Chile and places that are loaded with copper. And this was a big part about why

382
00:37:15,820 --> 00:37:21,140
China and the US came to an agreement on the trade side before the other countries. And it's because

383
00:37:21,140 --> 00:37:26,940
China was holding rare earth over the US. And I had highlighted this for about the last six weeks

384
00:37:26,940 --> 00:37:32,400
that we can't go through a trade war with China because they control 90% of the rare earth,

385
00:37:32,460 --> 00:37:36,920
which is used in everything we do from a military standpoint, everything we do from an AI standpoint,

386
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:44,500
Everything we do from a computer and a phone standpoint, China has 90% of the process rare earth right now in the world.

387
00:37:44,660 --> 00:37:52,100
So we've got to spend the next four years finding new access to rare earth from places like Greenland and Ukraine and other places around the world.

388
00:37:52,300 --> 00:37:56,360
So I think that's the one thing is commodities will slow this down eventually.

389
00:37:56,620 --> 00:37:59,220
But I think the regulatory side is actually accelerating.

390
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:00,280
Yeah.

391
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:06,680
So are you hopeful that we'll have the necessary energy expansion here in the United States?

392
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:22,680
And it's funny you mentioned Greenland and all that. I think people look at the headlines of the bombastic comments Trump will make about like taking Greenland or adding Canada as the 51st state and just look at his face value as Trump being a bombastic sort of psychophant.

393
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:28,360
Psychophant, but it's actually not a psychophant, but like an absurd person.

394
00:38:28,620 --> 00:38:31,560
But like actually, I think strategically, it's like, no, we need these rare earths.

395
00:38:31,900 --> 00:38:39,360
And Canada has a lot of oil and natural gas that we could probably leverage to to build out all this energy infrastructure that is necessary.

396
00:38:40,500 --> 00:38:47,300
Yeah. So I ran a very large macro book back during the financial crisis.

397
00:38:47,300 --> 00:38:55,480
And I was in China in May of 2008, exactly when oil was getting above $150.

398
00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:12,800
And I was there to see if there was any chance that China wouldn't be impacted by what was happening in the U.S., which at that time, you know, for people not involved in the market, the rest of the China in particular did not believe it would be impacted by the U.S. housing problem.

399
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:21,820
And I went over there to get a better understanding of why oil was at $150 when the U.S. economy was falling fairly sharply.

400
00:39:22,660 --> 00:39:27,440
And everyone kept talking about how China was still growing energy, but they weren't using oil.

401
00:39:27,540 --> 00:39:28,420
They were using coal.

402
00:39:29,140 --> 00:39:37,360
And what I saw was that at the time, China needed to import an enormous amount of coal to keep running their country at the level they did.

403
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,860
And they were trying to not slow down at the time the U.S. was collapsing.

404
00:39:41,860 --> 00:39:56,980
And obviously Lehman Brothers ended that. But I left there in June of 08 and I had a very large emerging marketing commodity portfolio, which I took down. And the reason was because I could see that the coal side was already an intense problem.

405
00:39:56,980 --> 00:40:02,480
The reason oil was going up is because the bottlenecks that were happening in coal from shipping them from around the globe.

406
00:40:02,580 --> 00:40:08,640
And this is the important thing that I want to mention for the power side for people that we're going to run into this again.

407
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:14,100
There's plenty of oil and gas and copper around the globe.

408
00:40:14,620 --> 00:40:16,200
It's all somewhere.

409
00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:17,920
We know where it is.

410
00:40:17,980 --> 00:40:18,880
We can go get it.

411
00:40:18,940 --> 00:40:22,220
But the question is, can we get it as fast as the demand side is growing?

412
00:40:22,340 --> 00:40:24,000
And that's the problem we're going to run into.

413
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:31,700
And the reason the coal thing became an issue is because trade finance broke down once Lehman Brothers there and then the whole dominoes broke down.

414
00:40:32,020 --> 00:40:37,240
In the case of power, the U.S. is trying to invest, trying to triple nuclear.

415
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:43,400
They're trying to do anything possible on the gas and fossil fuel side.

416
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:50,420
But the big, beautiful bill is going to hurt some of the ability for wind and solar to go to go to go forward.

417
00:40:50,420 --> 00:40:55,480
So I think over the second half of this year, I wrote a research paper.

418
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,440
I believe Exxon and Chevron are going to benefit from this.

419
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:03,760
They're not direct plays, but I'll always be reminded of what happened with coal, which led to oil.

420
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:10,100
And I think in this case, if you can't get nuclear and you can't get the clean energy you need, you're just going to go use the dirty energy.

421
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:18,740
And so I think you're going to see a surprising upward side of oil prices, of natural gas, of copper, and also of a lot of the commodity names this year.

422
00:41:18,740 --> 00:41:24,760
And as that plays out, I think it'll be evident to people that we definitely don't have enough power for the next couple of years away from Stan.

423
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:25,620
Yeah.

424
00:41:26,260 --> 00:41:28,580
Now, the power thing is incredibly frustrating.

425
00:41:28,720 --> 00:41:35,360
So you look at the curve of generation in the United States, a flat line for essentially three to four decades.

426
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,020
Now it's beginning to creep back up.

427
00:41:37,260 --> 00:41:46,160
But that's probably my biggest worry is it too little, too late to try to catch up with China in terms of power generation.

428
00:41:46,160 --> 00:42:10,400
Yeah, our grid is so old. And, you know, the curve you're talking about, like we've dramatically increased our fossil fuel production. I mean, we were in 2008 at the time when oil is 150. The titles of most of the articles were the US was screwed because of peak oil and we didn't, we were importing oil. So we were at a major issue.

429
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:26,300
So here we are now and we're the largest exporter of natural gas and we produce now an increase from I think it was 1 million barrels a day up to where we are now, up near 13 or 12.

430
00:42:27,060 --> 00:42:31,500
So we've changed the entire kind of way that the economy is run.

431
00:42:31,900 --> 00:42:35,880
But the thing that has stayed the same has basically been our electricity usage.

432
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:52,060
So our electricity usage peaked not that long ago. And as our nominal GDP, which used to be what electricity increase was, you started seeing an efficiency gain. And we just have an old grid. So it's very hard to enable us to get more.

433
00:42:52,060 --> 00:43:04,240
And so if you read, I think Elon Musk this week, it was announced that he purchased a power plant overseas that he's importing into the country just to give you an idea of how much power is needed.

434
00:43:04,340 --> 00:43:10,820
And that's for his new – his next phase of Colossus and the big data center that he's building out.

435
00:43:11,060 --> 00:43:13,480
So I think this – again, this will be a major theme.

436
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:19,560
Our data center buildout is accelerating now and it's just going to take a lot of power and we're not ready for it.

437
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:20,220
Neither is the grid.

438
00:43:20,220 --> 00:43:28,060
It almost feels like to me I've been living in Texas for the last four years and you see what's happening within ERCOT specifically.

439
00:43:28,620 --> 00:43:28,760
Yeah.

440
00:43:29,220 --> 00:43:38,380
And it's obvious that the administration now understands this problem and understands that we need to get going in terms of expanding generation.

441
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:48,780
There has to be a meeting of the grid minds here in the United States with ERCOT leading it saying, all right, here's how we did this over the last 30 years and here's how you can do it.

442
00:43:48,780 --> 00:43:55,820
It's going to lead to a lot of deregulation and disruption of the way you've been doing business since over the last century.

443
00:43:56,000 --> 00:44:00,760
But if we're actually going to go achieve these energy expansion goals, here's how it needs to be done.

444
00:44:01,620 --> 00:44:04,100
Texas is going to be really interesting in this whole thing.

445
00:44:04,100 --> 00:44:13,100
I, you know, for ERCOT to be a almost like a well-known thing now for non-utility people

446
00:44:13,100 --> 00:44:18,500
throughout the country where, you know, I do a lot of stuff now for 22V in terms of institutional

447
00:44:18,500 --> 00:44:19,100
research.

448
00:44:19,100 --> 00:44:24,440
And we're going to be going down to Texas probably in August as part of a, you know,

449
00:44:24,460 --> 00:44:26,400
a data center trip.

450
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:27,500
We'll meet with ERCOT.

451
00:44:27,700 --> 00:44:32,000
We're going to see a small nuclear, a modular nuclear build out.

452
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:35,160
And then we're going to go to a humanoid company.

453
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:40,940
And the goal is really to show institutional investors, A, how close we are on all of this stuff.

454
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:49,920
But secondly, the massive electricity needs and build out that has to happen in Texas because of the Abilene build out from Stargate.

455
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,740
You've got other data centers in other places.

456
00:44:52,900 --> 00:44:56,400
Texas is just the home right now to everything going on from the build outside.

457
00:44:56,400 --> 00:45:04,500
Yeah, and we have the ability to do this in a capital efficient way because of Bitcoin mining.

458
00:45:04,740 --> 00:45:09,520
I know you've been mentioning Bitcoin mining as the energy buyer of last resort.

459
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:15,340
But one of the things I've been saying for years, having been immersed in the mining industry since 2018,

460
00:45:16,260 --> 00:45:18,760
it's not only the buyer of last resort, it's the buyer of first resort too.

461
00:45:18,860 --> 00:45:23,320
And I think one of the problems that these grids have is you can build power facilities,

462
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,860
but it takes time to build transmission to the grid.

463
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,200
And that time lapse creates this inefficient use of capital.

464
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:30,940
We're now at Bitcoin mining.

465
00:45:31,140 --> 00:45:37,600
You can build the generation asset, put a mining operation behind the meter at the site,

466
00:45:38,180 --> 00:45:43,540
build out transmission, and then create revenue while transmission is being built out to the rest of the grid.

467
00:45:44,540 --> 00:45:50,000
And so I think in terms of actually building out more generation,

468
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:54,420
And Bitcoin mining needs to be part of the conversation in terms of helping to enable

469
00:45:54,420 --> 00:45:55,960
that and de-risk it.

470
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:57,000
Yeah.

471
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:02,260
And this week, obviously, with Core Scientific and Core Weave, this was a big moment again.

472
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:18,650
This year has I mean let start at last year So if you were looking post FTX and post kind of the destruction of the 22 year you needed to have more of a merging between the traditional finance world the fiat world and crypto

473
00:46:19,290 --> 00:46:22,490
And stable coins is one of those bridges to help.

474
00:46:22,650 --> 00:46:25,370
And obviously the Circle IPO has brought a big spotlight.

475
00:46:25,370 --> 00:46:33,370
Last year you had the ETF launches, which was a natural way for people to not have to go set up wallets and not have to go that whole route.

476
00:46:33,370 --> 00:46:40,290
But in the long run, to actually have the system, the digital economy accelerate, you need to have payments.

477
00:46:40,910 --> 00:46:50,630
Stablecoin will not only accelerate the volumes and the transactions that are happening around the globe, but it also leads to a much easier way for any individual to have wallets set up.

478
00:46:51,650 --> 00:46:58,990
And by having more ability for wallets, then you end up with the transactions and the money being in the digital economy and then it's staying there.

479
00:46:58,990 --> 00:47:18,410
While the power side, you have the data centers. And so you have CoreWeave, which was a successful IPO this year. And then they go out and decide, OK, we're going to go buy a Bitcoin miner. You're getting the bridging between the power side of both the AI and crypto. And I don't think people are seeing this.

480
00:47:18,410 --> 00:47:24,610
That's why the last phase for me is the power side, not the electricity, but the digital oil side.

481
00:47:25,390 --> 00:47:29,570
And that's where Ethereum to me is really important for this year for the next crossover point.

482
00:47:29,970 --> 00:47:34,530
I think people have to understand and start thinking about, well, why is Circle important as a company?

483
00:47:34,650 --> 00:47:39,830
And now I start hearing people say, wow, Tether should be a trillion dollar company or any of these different things.

484
00:47:39,830 --> 00:47:54,870
As long as fiat people can convert the way they're thinking in the traditional way into the crypto world, which you cannot do with Bitcoin other than call it digital gold, which to me is not worth people to think about it that way.

485
00:47:54,870 --> 00:47:58,950
They need actually some things where they can invest in it and they can make an argument.

486
00:47:58,950 --> 00:48:10,990
And eventually with Ethereum, regardless of people's beliefs on it, I think there will be a conversion at some point that will make people think about it in the way that it should when it gets explained.

487
00:48:10,990 --> 00:48:17,850
that if you believe we're going to do, you know, that stable coins will go from 250 or 260

488
00:48:17,850 --> 00:48:24,890
billion up to, you know, a trillion plus over the course of the next 18 months, if you believe that

489
00:48:24,890 --> 00:48:28,350
and you think volumes are going to continue to explode, then I think people are going to make

490
00:48:28,350 --> 00:48:33,110
the natural transition to what's powering that? What else should benefit from it? Where should it

491
00:48:33,110 --> 00:48:38,090
go? And if they start going to the quote unquote digital oil side, then Ethereum should get it.

492
00:48:38,090 --> 00:48:39,390
We should get speculation there.

493
00:48:39,530 --> 00:48:44,790
So I like these crossover points between the traditional fiat world and the crypto world.

494
00:48:45,110 --> 00:48:49,590
And I think the power side through the Bitcoin miners is just another natural transition for people.

495
00:48:51,510 --> 00:48:55,170
Again, equally unnerving and exciting.

496
00:48:55,170 --> 00:49:06,330
I feel very fortunate just by not happenchance, but I chose the path to focus on Bitcoin and have been maniacally obsessed with it for 12 years.

497
00:49:06,330 --> 00:49:15,010
And I don't think if you would have told me five, seven years ago that this convergence would be happening, I would have probably been like, maybe.

498
00:49:15,210 --> 00:49:16,830
But like now that it's here, it's like, holy crap.

499
00:49:16,950 --> 00:49:26,250
It's a really good spot to be in as an individual playing sort of in these two worlds, particularly between Bitcoin and power, which is a lot of my passion.

500
00:49:26,250 --> 00:49:35,750
See, I think the bigger point as someone who didn't start getting from an investment point involved until 2020.

501
00:49:37,530 --> 00:49:40,010
So I am a big student of history.

502
00:49:40,290 --> 00:49:50,210
And when I talked about LEI, you know, it was 2013 that I started understanding exponential innovation and what would happen.

503
00:49:50,210 --> 00:50:00,470
And I wish in 2014 after I got – so 2013 was when I stopped going to China every year for a month and I started going to Silicon Valley.

504
00:50:01,170 --> 00:50:05,150
So for me, that was the admission that the LEI was done.

505
00:50:05,410 --> 00:50:06,590
And that was literally what it was.

506
00:50:06,690 --> 00:50:13,190
2013, I realized that the government basically just ended business cycles.

507
00:50:13,730 --> 00:50:14,610
China had peaked.

508
00:50:14,790 --> 00:50:16,790
Their demographics were a foregone conclusion.

509
00:50:16,970 --> 00:50:18,670
There was no way to turn it the other direction.

510
00:50:18,670 --> 00:50:28,190
I don't think most people watching this think about China in the context of the globe, but China is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding.

511
00:50:28,430 --> 00:50:44,190
The one-child policy is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding because it meant that the caboose, the last part of the Industrial Revolution, it ended in 2013 and they had a massive debt problem on the real estate side, which they still have.

512
00:50:44,190 --> 00:50:48,230
That meant they had to start printing. So when you go look at money supply of the world,

513
00:50:48,710 --> 00:50:55,250
China's 50% of the money supply. So they've made it illegal to invest in Bitcoin. They've done all

514
00:50:55,250 --> 00:51:00,990
kinds of things to really hamper the growth. But for me, when 2013 became evident, that's when I

515
00:51:00,990 --> 00:51:06,650
started to get involved in terms of believing that exponential innovation was coming. Well,

516
00:51:06,690 --> 00:51:12,890
Marc Andreessen wrote a paper titled Why Bitcoin Matters in 2014 for Andreessen Horowitz.

517
00:51:12,890 --> 00:51:31,390
And if I would have read that paper in 2014, I would have invested right there in that because I went to Silicon Valley trying to explain why Amazon could trade at the highest multiples ever for a long period of time and why a company that didn't make money could trade as one of the biggest companies in the world.

518
00:51:31,390 --> 00:51:39,770
and why Bitcoin matters was an important writing about the Bitcoin white paper, how it was coding

519
00:51:39,770 --> 00:51:46,330
genius, and more importantly, how over the next 20 years, it would basically be the most important

520
00:51:46,330 --> 00:51:50,690
part of the digital economy outside of the birth of the internet, the birth of the personal

521
00:51:50,690 --> 00:51:59,010
computer. Now, I read that in 2020. And now when you look at today, that paper that he wrote was

522
00:51:59,010 --> 00:52:04,090
effectively that Bitcoin had solved digital money and that Bitcoin would be the money transaction

523
00:52:04,090 --> 00:52:10,530
piece. That didn't happen. So the fact that stable coins has effectively taken that reign,

524
00:52:10,790 --> 00:52:16,390
it's actually really interesting because it means the evolution of the technology and the innovation

525
00:52:16,390 --> 00:52:22,290
and Bitcoin kind of establishing itself as this separate entity, which is really I needed to know

526
00:52:22,290 --> 00:52:27,430
what it was. I have said publicly and I still believe it, that Bitcoin represents the S&P 500

527
00:52:27,430 --> 00:52:32,930
of the future. It is the ultimate capital structure global. It is the global S&P.

528
00:52:33,270 --> 00:52:40,370
If you're going to invest in something that says innovation is here, the S&P 500 is an amorphous

529
00:52:40,370 --> 00:52:47,150
thing that changes the companies constantly at a slow pace. If you believe it was changing

530
00:52:47,150 --> 00:52:51,690
companies, like if there was a new Mag 7 tomorrow and the old Mag 7 would be gone, as an investor,

531
00:52:51,810 --> 00:52:55,870
you'd still make money even though half the companies are gone now. And the reason is because

532
00:52:55,870 --> 00:53:00,050
you're invested in the S&P 500. You're not invested in just in Apple or just in whatever.

533
00:53:00,530 --> 00:53:04,470
Well, that's what Bitcoin is. It's the end result of all the destruction of every company that has

534
00:53:04,470 --> 00:53:08,890
ever existed. The money needs to go somewhere because it's not disappearing. And Bitcoin is

535
00:53:08,890 --> 00:53:13,550
the global representation. So I wish I would have read Marc Andreessen and had the luck you did of

536
00:53:13,550 --> 00:53:20,790
getting involved 12 years ago, but I'm enjoying my time now. I remember that. And then he did an

537
00:53:20,790 --> 00:53:23,450
opinion piece in the New York Times or maybe that it was.

538
00:53:23,450 --> 00:53:27,170
No, it was on their website, but it was also in the opinion piece.

539
00:53:27,410 --> 00:53:27,630
Yeah.

540
00:53:28,350 --> 00:53:34,790
And the, I mean, to this point too, like when it comes to the conversation of like stable

541
00:53:34,790 --> 00:53:37,350
coins versus Bitcoin payments, you've mentioned this as bridge.

542
00:53:37,890 --> 00:53:42,750
And that's how I view stable coins, this sort of transitionary mechanism to get us to a

543
00:53:42,750 --> 00:53:43,790
Bitcoin standard.

544
00:53:44,670 --> 00:53:49,190
Because that's the question in the long run, like stable coins are representative of US

545
00:53:49,190 --> 00:53:55,690
dollars. And you've had the administration come out in recent months and pretty much acknowledge

546
00:53:55,690 --> 00:54:05,270
like, hey, we gave it a good try with Doge. We're doing the big, beautiful bill. Doge is not really

547
00:54:05,270 --> 00:54:09,310
tenable in the long run because of Social Security, Medicaid and other things. We've got to turn it on

548
00:54:09,310 --> 00:54:18,330
turbo, essentially expand the debt, lower rates and hope that we can just grow GDP at a faster rate

549
00:54:18,330 --> 00:54:19,750
and we're expanding the monetary base.

550
00:54:19,810 --> 00:54:21,030
And I think that's the big question.

551
00:54:21,590 --> 00:54:26,730
And so what is the end result of those fiscal and monetary policies

552
00:54:26,730 --> 00:54:30,510
on the purchasing power of the dollar over the next 10, 15 years?

553
00:54:31,510 --> 00:54:31,990
Yeah.

554
00:54:32,290 --> 00:54:37,090
And with this whole scenario playing out,

555
00:54:37,290 --> 00:54:40,490
I've used AI to kind of decide how it all ends

556
00:54:40,490 --> 00:54:47,730
because AI will solve almost all of the debt deficit problems over time.

557
00:54:48,330 --> 00:54:59,490
So if you believe in abundance, which I do, and I believe it'll be here within 15 years, that gives enough time for us to solve the power needs.

558
00:54:59,590 --> 00:55:05,150
It gets enough time for us to basically solve for longevity.

559
00:55:06,090 --> 00:55:13,970
It gives us the ability – and the reason those are so important, until you have energy abundance, you can't get rid of the debt problem.

560
00:55:13,970 --> 00:55:16,590
We talk about AI and what's the weakness.

561
00:55:16,590 --> 00:55:24,010
power is what slows down innovation it always will be um if we solve for fusion and everything is

562
00:55:24,010 --> 00:55:28,790
immediate then there's no more you know we won't have any problem with power all the problems will

563
00:55:28,790 --> 00:55:34,850
be solved because of asi and agi if people don't die of diseases anymore which is where i mean

564
00:55:34,850 --> 00:55:40,730
isomorphic labs if people want to go read news that came out this week um and what demis asab is

565
00:55:40,730 --> 00:55:46,430
a deep mind has really been focused on since 2016 since alpha go we're at that point where they

566
00:55:46,430 --> 00:55:52,130
believe that they can cure all diseases. They're starting with cancer. And isomorphic labs is

567
00:55:52,130 --> 00:55:56,930
basically going to start rolling out some of the work that they've been doing. If all of these

568
00:55:56,930 --> 00:56:01,150
things happen, then you're going to reduce the deficit because the expense side of the government

569
00:56:01,150 --> 00:56:05,890
is going to come down because most of the expenses have to do with aging in terms of social security,

570
00:56:05,890 --> 00:56:12,990
in terms of Medicare and Medicaid. So I'm a believer in abundance. I think people have

571
00:56:12,990 --> 00:56:20,250
probably about five years, which is why I agree with what Vino Casla talked about, which I

572
00:56:20,250 --> 00:56:26,430
referenced on this in the interview. If people haven't seen it, he was on the podcast Uncapped

573
00:56:26,430 --> 00:56:34,330
with Jack Altman, Sam Altman from OpenAI's brother. And he just openly talked about things

574
00:56:34,330 --> 00:56:38,510
that I've always believed in since Ray Kurzweil. But when you get to AGI and ASI,

575
00:56:38,510 --> 00:56:45,190
companies, the S&P 500 companies should be under complete attack. And since I believe AI startups

576
00:56:45,190 --> 00:56:49,450
will replace them and they'll all be private through tokenization, the investment in the S&P

577
00:56:49,450 --> 00:56:56,010
500 will start to decay. And you'll end up with a scenario that to me is headed towards abundance

578
00:56:56,010 --> 00:57:01,370
and headed towards real-time everything. And if that happens currency-wise, I don't know if

579
00:57:01,370 --> 00:57:05,830
stablecoins will still be here then, but we need a bridge to get us to where everyone is transacting,

580
00:57:05,830 --> 00:57:14,350
Everyone has wallets. Everyone embraces this. And I think that all has to happen in the lead up to abundance. So I think it'll happen more rapidly now over the next five years.

581
00:57:14,350 --> 00:57:19,630
yeah and you mentioned this in the beginning of the conversation but i made a mental note to come

582
00:57:19,630 --> 00:57:28,350
back to it because i'm a father of uh i've got two young boys a third child on the way at the end of

583
00:57:28,350 --> 00:57:34,530
the summer and like this is top of my mind thinking of the next 15 years as they enter their teenage

584
00:57:34,530 --> 00:57:39,930
years and their adulthood over the course of the next two decades like how do i position them

585
00:57:39,930 --> 00:57:46,490
um force it like is this based off of uh what you're describing from now the 2030s will be

586
00:57:46,490 --> 00:57:52,150
acceleration the 2030s will be a decade of reorganization then the 40s a decade of abundance

587
00:57:52,150 --> 00:57:58,310
like is it a perfect time to be born right now and you'll be an adult by the time abundance is here

588
00:57:58,310 --> 00:58:07,910
yeah i mean i my kids are older but i think about it every day and like i said it was after that

589
00:58:07,910 --> 00:58:20,630
first trip to Silicon Valley. So in 2013, my kids were, you know, under 15. And so I started

590
00:58:20,630 --> 00:58:26,130
thinking about, you know, school. I offered all my kids, none of them took me up on it.

591
00:58:26,530 --> 00:58:32,350
But I already thought a college education was a waste of time. And that I wanted them to get a

592
00:58:32,350 --> 00:58:37,810
degree, but I also wanted them to get the pure benefit from college, which was a social experience.

593
00:58:37,910 --> 00:58:51,710
But I told them I'd prefer if they went to Europe and just spent four years in Europe, got an online education and traveled and let me spend the money on that and just get an online degree and at least you have a college education.

594
00:58:52,490 --> 00:59:05,690
But you have that experience of traveling and building up kind of the knowledge of what I think the abundance world is going to look like, which is the ability of just enjoying life and finding ways to keep learning.

595
00:59:05,690 --> 00:59:09,970
And like I said, I learned more from conversations with people.

596
00:59:11,270 --> 00:59:14,130
You know, I have a lot of a lot of things in my life.

597
00:59:14,250 --> 00:59:16,750
I'm grateful for for people that I've met.

598
00:59:16,830 --> 00:59:19,730
My best friend, the best man at my wedding died in 9-11.

599
00:59:19,730 --> 00:59:28,290
And at that point, when I was in my 30s, I just, you know, had a very clear decision that life is short and I wanted to enjoy every minute.

600
00:59:28,410 --> 00:59:34,370
And I started meditating and I started getting involved with not letting a bad day impact the next day.

601
00:59:34,370 --> 00:59:42,490
And unfortunately, in abundance, if you extrapolate kind of the scary part of it, which is what do we do?

602
00:59:42,610 --> 00:59:43,370
What goes on?

603
00:59:43,790 --> 00:59:47,530
I don't think humans will ever not work in some fashion.

604
00:59:47,910 --> 00:59:49,930
I think it might be different.

605
00:59:50,290 --> 00:59:59,830
But I would teach your kids to be creative, to use AI from a very early age and ask questions to build things, to be people that can enjoy nature.

606
01:00:00,210 --> 01:00:05,070
I started skiing in my 40s because I grew up fairly poor and didn't have the money.

607
01:00:05,150 --> 01:00:06,630
My parents didn't take me skiing.

608
01:00:07,230 --> 01:00:11,870
And I thought it would be a great thing for my kids because I wanted to enjoy nature during the wintertime.

609
01:00:12,110 --> 01:00:18,650
As simple as that sounds, I think enjoying nature in the wintertime is one way to think of handling abundance.

610
01:00:18,650 --> 01:00:22,390
Because if you just lock yourself inside your house, you kind of go stir crazy.

611
01:00:22,570 --> 01:00:26,490
And I think that's the thing people are scared of the most is they're going to have so much time on their hands.

612
01:00:26,950 --> 01:00:28,050
How do I fill up the time?

613
01:00:28,050 --> 01:00:38,850
I think it has to be between people and conversations, learning, creativity and things that bring you joy, but also one with nature and going out and embracing it year round.

614
01:00:39,130 --> 01:00:40,910
So I completely agree.

615
01:00:41,170 --> 01:00:43,090
Get out, touch grass in the sun.

616
01:00:43,130 --> 01:00:46,170
That's why we come to the beach in the summer where we're ocean people.

617
01:00:46,370 --> 01:00:49,930
And so boys are in the ocean for five hours a day.

618
01:00:50,450 --> 01:00:50,930
Exactly.

619
01:00:52,510 --> 01:00:54,690
And there was one thing.

620
01:00:54,750 --> 01:00:55,650
Last thing I wanted to end it on.

621
01:00:55,650 --> 01:01:01,810
And I think it's really important that you're framing it this way in terms of using AI.

622
01:01:01,810 --> 01:01:08,690
I think there's a lot of misconceptions about how an individual, no matter your competency, can leverage these tools.

623
01:01:08,890 --> 01:01:09,910
Many people think it's daunting.

624
01:01:10,110 --> 01:01:11,090
Like, it's hard to use.

625
01:01:11,550 --> 01:01:17,490
And I think you've done a really good job of articulating it on your weekly videos of you've got to use it.

626
01:01:17,530 --> 01:01:24,970
You've got to use it every day, multiple times a day, and think with it because it learns about you as you're using it.

627
01:01:24,970 --> 01:01:29,210
and sort of not just thinking of it as a one-off tool

628
01:01:29,210 --> 01:01:30,750
to go do a simple task,

629
01:01:30,750 --> 01:01:33,290
but literally ingratiating it into you

630
01:01:33,336 --> 01:01:35,076
or day-to-day processes.

631
01:01:36,696 --> 01:01:40,036
And I think just having used it myself

632
01:01:40,036 --> 01:01:42,436
over the last two and a half, three years,

633
01:01:43,396 --> 01:01:46,436
it's much easier to pick up

634
01:01:46,436 --> 01:01:49,276
than I think many people think.

635
01:01:50,436 --> 01:01:52,496
You can basically ask it to teach you

636
01:01:52,496 --> 01:01:53,536
how to interact with it,

637
01:01:53,616 --> 01:01:56,336
and it will do that pretty sufficiently.

638
01:01:57,616 --> 01:02:00,336
So I'll give people...

639
01:02:00,336 --> 01:02:01,556
All right.

640
01:02:01,556 --> 01:02:06,116
So here are three things based on the last 24 hours.

641
01:02:06,516 --> 01:02:11,516
Two I've done and then one that they can take from this conversation.

642
01:02:11,916 --> 01:02:19,056
And, you know, if people are watching this, they're old enough, most likely, that they either have kids or they're thinking about kids.

643
01:02:19,536 --> 01:02:25,276
And I think setting an example for your kids to use AI is the only way to help prepare them for abundance.

644
01:02:25,436 --> 01:02:27,596
They have to get used to this.

645
01:02:27,596 --> 01:02:30,896
And so I have a, you know, I'm not up in Maine all the time.

646
01:02:30,916 --> 01:02:33,196
And I came up and my garbage disposal wasn't working.

647
01:02:33,316 --> 01:02:34,256
Now, I'm not a plumber.

648
01:02:34,356 --> 01:02:36,836
Normally, I would just call a plumber and have him come over.

649
01:02:37,676 --> 01:02:43,336
But instead, this time, because AI is multimodal, I went to ChatGPT.

650
01:02:43,336 --> 01:02:49,916
I hit the little plus button and I took a photo of the garbage disposal.

651
01:02:51,516 --> 01:02:54,576
I said, hey, the garbage disposal is making a buzzing sound.

652
01:02:55,336 --> 01:02:56,296
What am I supposed to do?

653
01:02:56,436 --> 01:02:57,336
It looked at the model.

654
01:02:57,336 --> 01:03:04,156
It said, take a photo underneath it so I can see what the bottom looks like.

655
01:03:04,996 --> 01:03:05,796
It took a photo.

656
01:03:06,656 --> 01:03:12,096
It said, go get an Allen wrench and turn this about three times and then it should be working.

657
01:03:12,476 --> 01:03:13,556
And that's exactly what happened.

658
01:03:14,156 --> 01:03:17,356
Now, if I would have gone to YouTube, I would have probably had to search.

659
01:03:17,456 --> 01:03:22,976
I would have figured it out, but it might have taken two hours to watch the video, go through it.

660
01:03:22,976 --> 01:03:28,396
having a conversation with chat GPT and showing a photo. If you have a wildflower on your,

661
01:03:28,496 --> 01:03:32,676
you know, on your property, just take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. If you have a bug

662
01:03:32,676 --> 01:03:37,676
bite on your leg, take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. Anything that you want to use it

663
01:03:37,676 --> 01:03:55,448
for If you worried that you you know your newborn has a rash around its neck take a photo of it and upload it All those things are now where instead of Google instead of YouTube you should be using it I cook and I a good cook Tonight I going to be making shrimp with

664
01:03:55,448 --> 01:04:01,608
a white bean puree, but I wanted to kind of, you know, change it up a little bit. So I started

665
01:04:01,608 --> 01:04:06,088
having conversation and literally went through and said, okay, I have a bunch of basil. I have

666
01:04:06,088 --> 01:04:11,748
a bunch of lemon. I really want to get a strong flavor inside the puree. What should I do? That's

667
01:04:11,748 --> 01:04:16,228
the way that I kind of build recipes on top of recipes and I kind of go through what I have.

668
01:04:16,628 --> 01:04:20,388
And so for anyone that cooks, just try it out and go through it. But most importantly,

669
01:04:20,528 --> 01:04:25,768
and the number one thing, and I wrote a sub stack about this, I mentioned Joseph Schumpeter. If

670
01:04:25,768 --> 01:04:30,108
you've never heard of Joseph Schumpeter, if you've never really thought about what creative

671
01:04:30,108 --> 01:04:36,888
destruction is, when you're done watching this, just go click to the far right of the free version

672
01:04:36,888 --> 01:04:44,428
of ChatGPT, you will see a round button on it, just a round globe, just hit it. It'll bring up

673
01:04:44,428 --> 01:04:49,528
what Siri is supposed to be with your AirPods on. Just have a conversation and say,

674
01:04:49,668 --> 01:04:54,788
I want to learn more about Joseph Schumpeter and just start a conversation. When you're driving in

675
01:04:54,788 --> 01:04:59,788
a car, have a conversation. If you have a conversation with ChatGPT or any of the voice

676
01:04:59,788 --> 01:05:04,848
modes, Grok is there. I think Grok 4 is coming out or came out last night or it's coming out tonight.

677
01:05:04,848 --> 01:05:11,308
perplexity. They all have voice mode. Gemini does. Just go have a conversation and start getting used

678
01:05:11,308 --> 01:05:15,648
to, hey, I want to read this book. Will you tell me what it's about? Okay. Instead of reading it,

679
01:05:15,668 --> 01:05:18,448
I'm just going to have a conversation with you about it. And you can have a conversation

680
01:05:18,448 --> 01:05:24,288
for literally a two hour drive nonstop. It'll change the way that you live your life. And once

681
01:05:24,288 --> 01:05:27,908
you start to have a conversation, you'll stop using Google. And once you stop using Google,

682
01:05:28,108 --> 01:05:30,548
you'll start to appreciate all the things that I just mentioned.

683
01:05:30,548 --> 01:05:36,548
yeah no on the cooking note i uh my dad unfortunately passed away a couple years ago

684
01:05:36,548 --> 01:05:43,468
but he had this uh very specific way of cooking a holiday filet in the oven like jack it up and i

685
01:05:43,468 --> 01:05:49,068
couldn't remember the exact steps but i went to chat gpt and i was like hey my dad used to cook

686
01:05:49,068 --> 01:05:54,068
the fillets this way i know he would turn the oven up really hot and turn it down like uh we've got a

687
01:05:54,068 --> 01:06:07,861
five pound fillet can you can you find this uh this style of cooking a fillet and tell me how to do it and like within 30 seconds it was like oh this is the this is like the high heat turn it down quick mode And like

688
01:06:08,081 --> 01:06:14,021
we had a perfect filet a few hours later. That's actually a perfect example of if you

689
01:06:14,021 --> 01:06:19,801
give it enough information, it will go and search specifically for what you're saying,

690
01:06:19,861 --> 01:06:25,041
which you cannot do in Google. There's no way to do it in Google. So when you get into these

691
01:06:25,041 --> 01:06:29,281
specifics where you go through it, it'll come up with it. If you do this with,

692
01:06:29,961 --> 01:06:38,721
I grilled a pizza and someone wanted to go through the nuances of how you make a great pizza on the

693
01:06:38,721 --> 01:06:42,901
grill without it being directly on the grill. And it's not an easy thing. You have to trial and

694
01:06:42,901 --> 01:06:47,681
error. You have to go through it. I explained why I have two bricks under a pizza stone to get it

695
01:06:47,681 --> 01:06:52,641
elevated so the flames are not close to the dough and how it has to be the perfect size and blah,

696
01:06:52,641 --> 01:06:58,601
blah, blah, and everything else. The great thing about AI, to use the biggest fear of it,

697
01:06:58,941 --> 01:07:02,941
doesn't it have hallucinations? If you don't want the answer to have hallucinations,

698
01:07:03,401 --> 01:07:08,201
just include in the prompt, do not hallucinate, do not include anything that is not a fact.

699
01:07:08,581 --> 01:07:14,661
The beauty of this thing is that if you tell it exactly what you want, whether it's, you know,

700
01:07:14,681 --> 01:07:20,241
I want to cook this at a high heat and then lower it. So I want the first 10 minutes to build a

701
01:07:20,241 --> 01:07:24,581
crust around it at 500 degrees and then I want to lower the filet down to 250 after that what

702
01:07:24,581 --> 01:07:29,241
recipe should I use so I get the thick crust but I still get it tender on the inside it'll give you

703
01:07:29,241 --> 01:07:33,701
what you want if you say don't hallucinate give me the exact answers and the factual stuff it'll

704
01:07:33,701 --> 01:07:38,901
spend extra time to go through it so people just need to stop being fearful of it and just experiment

705
01:07:38,901 --> 01:07:46,281
with it and you'll just be blown away by everything it can do yeah so overall optimistic I take it

706
01:07:46,281 --> 01:07:51,601
I have a hat that says half full.

707
01:07:52,201 --> 01:07:55,981
So I don't believe in pessimism.

708
01:07:56,041 --> 01:07:59,441
I'm a New York Jets fan, New York Mets fan, New York Knicks fan.

709
01:07:59,701 --> 01:08:01,541
I've got a long time without a championship.

710
01:08:01,541 --> 01:08:05,641
So I am optimistic when the season ends.

711
01:08:05,781 --> 01:08:07,761
I'm looking forward to the season next year.

712
01:08:08,121 --> 01:08:22,913
Well as a Phillies guy I been reveling in your pain over the last couple of decades There you go Jordy this has been incredible Thank you for just putting the information out there

713
01:08:22,913 --> 01:08:24,934
and being an open book about your thoughts and everything.

714
01:08:25,093 --> 01:08:27,553
It's been incredibly valuable for me

715
01:08:27,553 --> 01:08:28,434
over the last couple of months

716
01:08:28,434 --> 01:08:31,153
as I've been diving into your weekly videos.

717
01:08:31,314 --> 01:08:33,113
And I really appreciate your time coming in

718
01:08:33,113 --> 01:08:34,913
and having this conversation today.

719
01:08:34,953 --> 01:08:35,833
I think people are going to love it.

720
01:08:36,453 --> 01:08:38,033
Yeah, you guys post content too.

721
01:08:38,033 --> 01:08:41,493
I use a lot of it in my weekly videos.

722
01:08:41,653 --> 01:08:42,633
So the same goes to you.

723
01:08:42,633 --> 01:08:50,854
And the more that we're out there spreading the don't be fearful of AI and Bitcoin and crypto is not what you think it is.

724
01:08:50,894 --> 01:08:52,894
It just helps bring more and more people in.

725
01:08:52,993 --> 01:08:55,073
So I'm part of that community of trying to educate people.

726
01:08:55,153 --> 01:08:55,793
And we're there together.

727
01:08:55,934 --> 01:08:57,173
So I appreciate you inviting me.

728
01:08:57,713 --> 01:08:59,313
Yeah, we're going to win, as we say here.

729
01:08:59,434 --> 01:08:59,713
We're going to win.

730
01:09:00,653 --> 01:09:01,113
All right.

731
01:09:01,474 --> 01:09:02,173
Peace and love, Freaks.

732
01:09:02,413 --> 01:09:02,693
The King.

733
01:09:03,053 --> 01:09:04,273
Freaks, thank you for listening to the show.

734
01:09:04,373 --> 01:09:05,093
I hope you liked it.

735
01:09:05,733 --> 01:09:08,993
If you did like it, please make sure you subscribe, rate, review the show.

736
01:09:09,153 --> 01:09:09,993
It helps us out a lot.

737
01:09:09,993 --> 01:09:14,093
and also if you like these conversations i've come to realize that many people listen to the

738
01:09:14,093 --> 01:09:21,093
podcast they don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company we have the newsletter

739
01:09:21,093 --> 01:09:26,553
the bitcoin brief go to tftc.io make sure you subscribe there a lot of the topics that are

740
01:09:26,553 --> 01:09:32,733
discussed on this podcast i write about five days a week in the newsletter we also have the tftc

741
01:09:32,733 --> 01:09:39,773
elite tier if you sign up for that become a member we have a private discord server for

742
01:09:39,773 --> 01:09:46,953
the elite freaks out there where we're dropping ad-free versions of this show and having

743
01:09:46,953 --> 01:09:52,273
discussions about everything we talk about a day early logan wanted me to make sure if you want to

744
01:09:52,273 --> 01:09:58,673
get the show a day early become a tftc elite member you will get that we have our discord

745
01:09:58,673 --> 01:10:05,974
server right now it's conversation between myself and tftc elite tier members but we're going to

746
01:10:05,974 --> 01:10:06,493
expand that.

747
01:10:06,593 --> 01:10:10,113
We'll probably do closed Q and A's with people in the industry.

748
01:10:10,773 --> 01:10:12,733
I may be doing macro Mondays.

749
01:10:13,193 --> 01:10:16,253
So join us at tftc.io subscribe,

750
01:10:16,753 --> 01:10:18,753
find the button in the top right corner of the website,

751
01:10:18,974 --> 01:10:20,193
become a TFTC elite member.

752
01:10:21,293 --> 01:10:22,434
Thank you for joining us.

753
01:10:23,514 --> 01:10:23,773
Okay.