You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.
You talk about a Fed just gone nuts.
All the central banks going nuts.
So it's all acting like safe haven.
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,
Bitcoin wins.
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
Jordy Visser, thank you for joining me.
Good to be here, Marty.
As I was saying, I've been a big fan of your weekly updates.
I think you're on top of converging trends better than most people right now,
particularly as it pertains to AI, Bitcoin, broader crypto, and how it's actually affecting
the markets right now. And I think a good jumping off point for this conversation
is something that you've been talking about a lot, which is this dislocation between leading
economic indicators and what's actually happening in the sense that many indicators that people have
been depending on for decades seem to be sending off alarm bells that things may not all be well.
But I think your thesis is that AI is having an overwhelming effect on the market that is making
those what have been dependable indicators independable right now. Yeah, it's actually
interesting. I'll go backwards a little bit so people can understand the rationale behind it,
Because I think it's one of the more important points and there's a jumping off point where I really started to recognize.
I grew up in the business starting in the early 90s as a macro person.
I traded emerging markets throughout the 90s.
And I spent a lot of time with the history of the LEI, Leading Economic Indicators, and Jeffrey Moore.
because not a lot of people follow it, but it was a extremely useful tool a long time ago to
predict. And this is why it was created to help the government see when the economy was slowing
down. So monetary policy wouldn't be as late and fiscal policy wouldn't be as late. So you kind of
fast forward to 1980, the LEI came out in the 60s and something really important changed. And the
personal computer came out, then the internet in the 90s. And then we obviously started to get into
the true internet boom in the 2000s and the software and smartphone boom that kind of took
over the 2009 to 2010 period. So what I've basically said is that the economy has been
changing. So if you go back to when the LEI was created, it was basically an industrial economy
and that was it. There was no digital economy because we didn't have the personal computer yet.
So if you go from really the beginning or the end of the Great Depression and you start going back in history and learning how the government would try to measure the concept of GDP, the actual index was created in the 1930s by Simon Kuznets.
So this stuff was all meant to be around tangible assets, tangible goods, tangible transactions.
And obviously, as the digital economy started to grow, let's assume it was less than 1% of the US economy by 1990.
Then the internet comes and it's growing rapidly, but from such a small base.
And this will resonate with people that have been involved in Bitcoin since 2009.
It was a very small asset.
It's grown bigger.
Well, the digital economy has grown bigger as well.
So what happens is the industrial economy still has a lot of people working in it, still has a lot of debt in it.
So the reason the LEI is no longer sending off good signals is really one important event occurred in 2007 to 2009 when the great financial crisis happened.
The digital economy, in my opinion, forced that event to occur.
It created a situation where you had so much debt for other companies that were already seeing their businesses being disrupted.
And most people don't think of it that way. But go to the last time you actually used a bank teller. That was before the Great Financial Crisis. So we've been having disruptions for a long time. And when the Great Financial Crisis happened, the government had to stand up and assume the debt. And so we went from $9 trillion in debt for the U.S. government back in 2007 to where we are today, which is a massive problem.
Bitcoin white paper comes out just after Lehman Brothers and all these events kind of come in.
So what's happened is now we're left with a an industrial economy, which is relatively big,
but not growing anymore and shrinking a government, which is there to balloon or take over
that part of the economy. And then you've got the digital economy, which is growing extremely fast,
but has no debt and very few people. And that's where we're at. And that's why the LEI is no
longer useful signal because the industrial economy is not what's generating the wealth
and the growth evident in the S&P 500 consumption and actually the disruption. It's only going to
get worse from here. So that's the reason why when I spend time on, hey, how can the LEI be
trading 35 months in a row at a level that historically was always a recession and not
have one? And the reason is because the digital economy is really supporting the market and
growing along with the government economy. And so this is a combination of watching your
updates, obviously being immersed in Bitcoin for years, investing in the space and really
studying Bitcoin. And over the last three years, AI has proliferated using those tools,
incorporating them into my workflow, into our business here at TFTC and at 1031.
And the sentiment, I think you do a really good job pulling this out.
It's equally unnerving and exciting at the same time because there's so much potential.
But if you use the tools, you understand what they do to your business, and you extrapolate that out to not only small, medium-sized businesses, but large corporations, the S&P 500, the disruption is going to be massive.
But at the same time, there's these incredible opportunities.
So how are you thinking about approaching this disruption and navigating this transition?
Well, the first thing you said to start this off, equally unnerving and whatever upside word you want to use for the potential.
Philosophically, I just have that viewpoint in life.
There's nothing that goes on that isn't just a relationship between those two things.
I wrote a substack recently that was all about a quote that I gave to my oldest daughter that I've used throughout, which is life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.
And I still believe that.
So for me, that means that there's no way to change the reality of artificial intelligence and what it means.
You can either sit back and let it eat you up like all innovations.
You know, I reference since you watch my videos, I reference Joseph Schumpeter a lot, who, you know, is the father of creative destruction. And if you go back and read his works, and most of them were in the 30s and 40s. So almost 100 years ago, he talked about how capitalism will eventually cannibalize itself through creative destruction, that innovation will continue to go more rapidly, it'll destroy more jobs, it'll continue to, you know, like a tsunami, take everything in its path.
path. And as individuals that are in the workforce, I try to teach my kids the balance in life is that
work is not your identity. Your identity is you get one life to enjoy it and you have to go through
it. And I see that with Bitcoin. I've mentioned in the few times that I've gone, I started with
Raul Powell and I obviously have a long-term relationship because we both had similar
roles on Wall Street. And then as time has gone on, I've built a very strong relationship with
Anthony Pompliano. And between those two, I've been to events and I've met a lot of people that
have been there. And so I think the people that have found Bitcoin find it for both hope, they
find it for entertainment in terms of meme coins and trading, and they find it for hopefully
creating wealth. Well, that's really what the old world was when you went to school, you got a job,
you hope to move up to corporate ladder. But it sounds kind of boring. I view this world as more
exciting. And I think if people embrace artificial intelligence and they just spend time with it and
build a relationship with it, they can be part of the creative destruction as opposed to sitting
there and watching the tsunami come in. And so I try to do the videos to both inspire, let's say,
peers, but probably more importantly for the peers who've already made money to make sure that their
kids are prepared for it. Because it will, if you're just sitting there trying to take it on and
doubt it, believe it's hype, you're going to get swept over by the wave. And I'm trying to make
sure that people do it. So I don't think it's any different than the past. I just think innovation
is moving at a faster pace this time. Yeah. No, I was tweeting this out last week. I've been
experimenting with VibeCoding. We VibeCoded a browser extension that converts any US dollar
or any fiat price you see on the web into Bitcoin. And it took me like three hours on a Saturday
to create the prototype for that.
And then we iterated on it and launched it about a month and a half ago.
And it's crazy to see that we were able to do that
with a very minimal capital investment in actually building a product
and just talking with people who are really immersed in AI
in terms of incorporating it into their business flows.
We have teams of two in the portfolio that are building extremely complex applications
just by leveraging AI.
They're extending the productivity of the individual
by orders of magnitude with these tools.
And then I'm not sure if you caught Amjad Massad
on Joe Rogan, but I watched that.
And I'm coming through, there's this doomerism that exists
with people looking at AI and saying it's going to
really take the humanity out of things.
And I think it's actually the opposite, where, to your point,
If you have the agency and the ability to experiment and the will to experiment with these tools, it can actually unleash human creativity.
And I think that is going to be the differentiator moving forward as you give AI all the basically data inputs and sort of complex analyst jobs that are a bit monotonous and that people are doing right now.
Some of them are making a lot of money, but it's really soul sucking.
And you leverage AI to pull out your creativity and bring something to the world with these tools.
Yeah, it's again, I guess for everyone, it depends on what they they find entertaining.
I know. Artificial intelligence has replaced a lot of.
the activities I did that I probably didn't realize how mindless they were, where I used them to
almost rest my brain. Things like TV and, you know, anything along those lines where I wasn't
learning. I'm an insatiable learner, but learning was more challenging before artificial intelligence.
You had to, you know, you had to go digging for it. You had to go find what you wanted.
I'm more of a, and always have been a conversationalist. I get bored very easily.
So if I can sit across the table from someone extremely intelligent to where they I leave the conversation after one hour and there might be, you know, nine new places that I'm going to go dig into, nine new holes for me to go down.
I call them dots. I love it. But unfortunately, that that doesn't happen that often.
And so if I'm at a dinner, particularly on Wall Street, and I get bored by the people there, I want to leave.
And then my empathy is like, you can't get up.
It's rude to just get up and leave.
But I view it as a waste of two hours.
Now with artificial intelligence, I get to talk to the smartest person all day long.
There is never a boring conversation, which means if you like learning, if you like, you know, being a child again, where we learn most of the things, it's really easy to do.
So I can consume, you know, 50 books a week. And I would say at this point, between podcasts and books, I can consume about 50 a week. Now, am I listening to every single minute of every single podcast? No, because I'm getting the transcripts in a lot of cases. If there's fluff, if it's someone who's engaging, and I want to sit there because it helps me walk around the park and listen to it, then I will.
But if I get bored by it, I download the transcript and then I have a conversation with Chachi PT about it.
And until you do that, until you kind of experience what it would be like to talk to a documentary as opposed to watching a documentary and realizing how you can actually get the parts that you want to get.
I don't think people have fully embraced artificial intelligence.
It is the single best entertainment tool for me that I've ever seen.
it's like walking into a virtual library and just having everything in front of your eyes
or Ironman and watching Jarvis in front of Tony Stark. I mean, it's just an amazing thing. So I
get excited about it. It's been one of the greatest times for me since ChatGPT was launched.
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And so bringing this back to hard data,
anecdotally, we're using it
and incorporating it into our everyday lives But what are you seeing in terms of the early adopters let the MAG or how do you view its effect on these large corporations and even smaller sort of upstarts that could potentially disrupt them
And how is it beginning to materialize in the economic data?
So there's a few things happening that have already gone through.
First of all, starting with the personal computer, we have seen profit margins in the U.S. in particular just continue to climb higher.
I don't think people have fully recognized that it started really with the personal computer.
It accelerated with the Internet, with the smartphone, and it's continuing to go.
Now, the S&P 500 is something people, you know, they understand.
They're invested in it.
I don't think they fully grasp the other angle.
So let's just say the S&P 500, by definition, these are incumbents. And they may not be old incumbents because the Mag-7, many of them are less than 20 years old. I think at this point, except for maybe Apple, all of them are under 30 years. And the size of them is just amazing.
So they've taken advantage and they've been the early names that companies that have benefited from it.
And they will continue to benefit less so than they have because their spending is now insane and will remain insane.
They're going to get because of the big, beautiful bill, a lot of depreciation side on their CapEx, which will help their earnings and profit margins stay high.
But there's an interesting thing that's happening.
And, you know, this fact was brought to me and it fits in with the thesis I have towards Bitcoin.
But at the same time that we have these incumbents that have done well, 81% of the companies in the U.S. that are bigger than at least 100 million are private companies.
And so startups are starting to have the ability to, you know, you mentioned VibeCoding.
Let's go to something like Cursor.
Cursor has grown rapidly faster than almost any company in history to 500 million ARR, faster than OpenAI.
And I don't think most people even know what Cursor does.
But when you start getting to the point that artificial intelligence allows companies to grow extremely fast with revenues and at the same time without people, without debt, you've reached a very, very important moment where the question is, will Cursor, which I think they will, have so much competition going forward that at some point they'll peak at some ARR and maybe their business will slow down after growing so rapidly?
If you think about it in crypto terms, you've seen that a lot. I'll use Axie Infinity as something that just boomed back in 2023 into 2024, and then you never hear of it again as a game.
I think there's going to be a lot of, quote unquote, booms that then you forget about because competition is now everywhere. And I think gradually over time, the incumbents which make up the S&P 500 will be under extreme attack, and I don't think they're going to be replaced.
And that's the big thing that I haven't really spent a lot of time already on my videos yet.
I think this past weekend, the title of it was a graveyard for the 2030s will be a graveyard for the Fortune 500.
And that's really where this ends for me is that the incumbents will not be replaced because I think tokenization and the crypto world will allow these companies to remain private.
And the S&P 500 in public companies will stop growing, but the private stuff will continue to grow.
yeah i i would love to dig into this because you're beginning to see
this manifest particularly it was a company like stripe uh i think the
collison brothers were on all in earlier this year and the all-in
guys were pressuring them about when they're going to go public and
they very i wouldn't say flippantly but
nonchalantly we're like ah it's not really a priority for us we're going to
stay private for as long as possible and i
think that's a company you look at it's the
market for secondary shares of Stripe is pretty liquid. And so it's not a problem for them,
for early investors or employees who've exercised their options to liquidate their shares,
to realize some of the value that they've accrued. And it's something we think a lot
about 1031. And one of the questions we get asked most is like, what's the goal? What's the path
to monetization? Is it going public ultimately? And some companies it may be, but there are
many founders beginning to think like, should we stay private for longer? What is the path
towards monetization for early investors? Is going public the end all be all? I think
the tenor amongst founders today is not sure if that's the end all be all for us particularly,
which is really interesting and a changing dynamic. Yeah. Again, I think monetization
was a function of the old capital structure. You had to do it because you had to take in money. But
I don't know what Cursor's capital structure looks like. I think the company's only three
or four years old. But let's assume they didn't have to take in any money and they just built
the business from zero the way it is today. If you get to 500 million of ARR and your expenses
are extremely low, why do you ever have to monetize? You are monetizing. It's out of your
revenues. It's not out of the value of the business. So I'm not really sure if people
have really thought through the concept of what monetization actually is. I come from the hedge
fund world. I know plenty of hedge funds that have remained private the entire time and their
founders are making over a billion dollars a year out of the revenue. So I'm not really sure people
have thought through this. I understand why a private equity firm, a VC firm, large investors,
companies that have had to just continually raise money. But if founders are able to take
$100 million out of their business, and Larry Ellison, I think, was the first person that said,
you know, once you get to a net worth of, you know, whatever it was, half a billion dollars,
you really can't spend the money the rest of your life anyway. So I really do believe this
competition from AI will not allow businesses to grow forever. And that's the concept that I think
people are going to have to start to get in their brains. It twists it a little bit because it's not
something they've thought of. But that's the interesting part for me on the journey into the
crypto world is I like, I'm a pattern recognition person. If I see my son talking about a new video
game every three months and a new app every three months, then that's boom bust. But it's just a
different version of it. And I think that's the world that millennials and younger kids have really
got involved in is that you just keep moving and moving and moving and moving to the next thing.
And a true entrepreneur can build a thousand businesses if they want. They don't have to have
one business and then ride it into the ground and keep running it. So I think it's a different
mindset going forward yeah i think this is manifesting there's i mean i've been sleuthing
on like ai twitter and there's like a big a big trend of people starting holding companies and
then having these these smaller one-off apps that they're they're producing getting the mrr arr up
and then moving to the next thing rather quickly and so you can i could definitely see that trend
accelerating from here. And then to your point about
AI enabling people to just build things without having to raise in the first place,
when you add Bitcoin as a treasury asset to this equation, things really get heady when you think
about this part of the conversation that we're tapping into. And we've seen this within our
portfolio at 1031. There's a number of companies. We've been pretty aggressive. We get on the cap
table and we're very ardent about persuading founders to put a good portion of their initial
raise into Bitcoin and hold it on the balance sheet. And many companies have listened to our
advice there. And there are a number in the portfolio that haven't had to go back to market
because the cash and cash equivalents in the form of Bitcoin on their balance sheet is more
than the money they've ever raised up to this point. So you basically have this capital tool
that allows you to be very selective with when you go to dilute yourself as a founder
and the rest of your cap table. And when you sprinkle the productivity gains of AI into that
and the speed to revenue that these tools can enable, it gets really insane if you have
a founder or two co-founders that really internalize this concept of pairing the
productivity of AI with the hard asset that is Bitcoin to really supercharge their business.
And they're just cash flowing quickly, turning that into Bitcoin, extending their runway.
Things can get really weird. Well, you just I think this is a
another version of what I talk about a lot. And I still believe that this year will be a historic
year for Bitcoin and for crypto because of the merging of AI and the speed of Bitcoin.
Stablecoins are connecting the two worlds and allowing more money from the fiat system
to see the spotlight. So I've kind of viewed Bitcoin just in my conversations as being a dark
hole, a cave that most people that have the most money in the world, just not only do they not
understand, they can't embrace it. And that'll change over time because of FOMO. I've said
repeatedly, and I'll say it again, that the most important chart to me is Bitcoin over the MAG7.
And that it's been doing well this year. Bitcoin has outperformed by about 15%.
percent, as it breaks out and as it gets going, which I think will happen this year, I think it
will force more and more of the fiat world to move into it because the fiat world is around the globe.
Their number one asset is the MAG-7. I grouped them all together because it doesn't really matter.
They've been the winners. So regardless of whether it's a European investor, a Chinese investor,
an Asian, anyone around the globe, their number one asset is the MAG-7 or they haven't performed.
So they all own it. And I think this merging the way you described it, where it's supercharging businesses that anyone that views it on the balance sheet, but also uses AI to grow their business.
And before we get off this interview, Marty, I do want you to talk to me about an example of these holding companies because this is kind of one of those things that like I haven't seen this before.
It makes perfect sense to me, but I'm interested in anyone or any anybody who's out there posting about it because the reality is that's a supercharged thought process, too, where it's like I don't need to create a business.
Let me just go create a thousand little businesses that are diversified in itself.
And let me put the revenues I'm getting that a percentage of them into Bitcoin and let the two of them grow together.
That's the way that I've chosen my life. I could be at a hedge fund right now.
I'm supercharging my life by spending my time on AI and having most of my net worth in crypto and in particular in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
And I'm just focused there. So this supercharging of the two coming together this year, my side,
because of AI agents, but the way you're describing it, it doesn't really matter.
It's just the growth of AI and using AI and then putting money into Bitcoin,
letting them run together.
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that's unchained.com slash tftc pretty hot package freaks go pick it up yeah so there's exactly like
level co i think that's his name like he's a prominent a prominent vibe coder and if you go to
his his profile on x he's got like the number of companies started in the last couple years and i
think he tracks their mrr and arr and updates it in his profile if he's been transparent about it
greg eisenberg is another guy that's really been i don't know if he's doing it himself but um i
I think he's really trying to drive home this point.
And then, I mean, TFTC, what we're doing here, we have a holdings company, the media.
We have our media branch, but now Opportunity Costs, which is the extension we launched.
I think we're going to create a mobile app for that.
And that'll be like a little LLC under the holding code that is TFTC.
And it's beautiful for me because I've built up this media brand over the last eight years.
And we have good distribution, good reach.
And so I think we're well positioned to leverage that distribution to get these applications into the hands of individuals.
And I've got a team of three behind me.
And I really just think of the idea and sort of know where the market is and they run with it.
And then the amount of lift it takes for me personally to sort of contribute to those efforts is minimal, a couple hours a week maybe.
And then they're able to do the work.
And it's pretty low risk, potentially high reward in terms of we're able to use the cash flows from the media to fund all this.
And if it works out, you just add a diversified revenue stream to the holdings go.
And we're a Bitcoin treasury company as well, private one.
We would immediately roll all the cash flow into Bitcoin.
So that's how we're thinking about it, at least.
I think more and more businesses will keep doing it.
It's still early in this.
I got asked a couple of times last week with people about where we stand with Bitcoin and corporate treasury and just the mindset of more established companies as opposed to the smaller businesses.
And, you know, I think AI is going to disrupt incumbents from the bottom up.
And so if you're a software company like MicroStrategy was and your business is now being disrupted by AI, you're going to have to find some way to continue to grow.
And maybe you've been successful and you have a lot of money, but now you realize there's just no way to compete with AI because they just have no people.
The only thing that can move is fast and it's not destructible and to me is a hedge on the destruction of AI is Bitcoin.
And I think more and more companies, just like more and more countries and more and more individuals will be forced into it because it's the only asset to me that has a moat other than gold.
And as I've said, religion, I don't know of anything else that can survive another 5000 years.
And Bitcoin is one of them.
Yeah. And I mean, to this point, that I think is one of the big themes.
You been talking about it the last couple of weeks meta developers playing insane signing bonuses plus insane comp annual comp in the nine figure range just to catch up with OpenAI and others
And I've had conversations with people who are in pretty well established unicorns that a few years ago, many would be certain that they're going to be around for many decades.
but internally beginning to question because especially if you have an organization with a lot of employees,
you have a high headcount, you sort of have this managerial morass that sits between the executives
and the people actually doing the work.
It's going to be hard for them to be nimble enough to actually have the balls to take the risk
to sort of gut everything and build everything from the ground up.
And so I know a number of people in big tech that are sitting in cushy positions at companies that, again, three years ago, people would have been certain will be around in 2030, 2040, beginning to question because they're curious as if whether or not their organization actually has the intestinal fortitude and the boldness to act, to sort of gut everything and implement AI from the ground up.
And can they actually do that considering the technical architecture of the business that they built between 2015 and today?
Well, that's the thing about what Meta is doing and what Zuckerberg is admitting, if anyone wants to listen, is that he has an enormous fear of obsolescence at this point.
And that's – I mean you're dealing with one of the Mag7.
You're dealing with a company that is bigger than the majority of countries' GDP on the planet.
And yet he's willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars, so over a billion dollars for 12 employees.
And yesterday he hired a senior person at Apple.
It really just says that he has a fear of falling behind.
Their models are behind.
That's no doubt.
He's chosen this open source approach and he's losing.
And so to have a company that big to fear obsolescence at its all time high in price, the same way I said at the beginning of the year, it's never happened in capitalism that one of the largest companies on the planet that had increased their market cap by one point five trillion over the prior three years would fire five percent of the workforce.
But that's what they did at the beginning of the year.
And now they're out there chasing for more people and they're spending, I think, $70 billion approximately this year on the AI infrastructure.
So you're dealing with a reality that, you know, you mentioned the Collison brothers.
The Stripe Sessions is one of my favorite things to watch because they give you an update.
It's their annual event.
And they talked about how fast they were seeing their businesses, since they kind of control the startup world, grow to 5 million in ARR in the fastest time ever.
And I think it was a drop off of about 70% in time from where the SaaS unicorns had gotten to.
But not shown out there was also, they said, we're also seeing companies that are growing to 5 million ARR in a short amount of time also stall quicker than ever.
And that's the other part of this. It's not just the growth, but it's how quickly competition comes on. And so I think the meta news should be taken as, again, a really negative thing for the S&P 500, that they're fearful that their business will be disrupted from one of the other MAG-7s, from whoever reaches AGI, ASI first, whatever.
We're just in a totally different mindset than we've ever been in capitalism.
And that's why I always go back to the Schumpeter comment where eventually capitalism will eat itself.
And I think we're at that stage.
And I think that's what is represented by what Meta is doing.
What do you think?
Is there anything outside of the inability to expand energy generation that would slow this down in your mind?
Just like it was for Bitcoin, the governments and the regulatory side.
But the problem is, and this goes for Bitcoin as well, I don't think the governments in any way, shape or form we could have thought four years ago would be embracing stable coins, embracing Bitcoin to the point that they are.
AI is forcing China and the US to race faster than ever and deregulate.
And the reason is because it is a nuclear weapon in their eyes and whoever gets it wins.
And I don't think enough people have thought about that.
I've had that conversation.
I don't really get it.
I'm like, you understand if you have ASI, then everything accelerates from that day and you can't catch up.
Like you're just solving every single thing one by one by one.
And then someone doesn't have the answers to the test over at another place and you get further and further ahead.
there's no way to catch up. Now, assuming that's true and that is the benchmark that ends up
happening, that's great. But the fear factor between China and the US and the amount of
spending that will go on to ensure that this race happens, power is the only thing I can see,
that and rare earth. So commodities which fit in with the power side. I'm doing a
research report right now on copper, because I don't think, not even I don't think,
human beings have not really grasped how fast this is moving, how much power we'll need,
which I've written about, but how much copper we need, because it's the only commodity to deal
with the electrification side of letting the energy flow out. And we don't have enough copper
right now. It takes 15 to 20 years for a new mine to come on. So the amount of copper that
from everything I've gone through and done the numbers on, it's just enormous. So something on
the hardware physical side will probably slow it down. And that's where my focus has shifted from
an investment standpoint is I'm much more interested in copper companies in countries
like Brazil and Chile and places that are loaded with copper. And this was a big part about why
China and the US came to an agreement on the trade side before the other countries. And it's because
China was holding rare earth over the US. And I had highlighted this for about the last six weeks
that we can't go through a trade war with China because they control 90% of the rare earth,
which is used in everything we do from a military standpoint, everything we do from an AI standpoint,
Everything we do from a computer and a phone standpoint, China has 90% of the process rare earth right now in the world.
So we've got to spend the next four years finding new access to rare earth from places like Greenland and Ukraine and other places around the world.
So I think that's the one thing is commodities will slow this down eventually.
But I think the regulatory side is actually accelerating.
Yeah.
So are you hopeful that we'll have the necessary energy expansion here in the United States?
And it's funny you mentioned Greenland and all that. I think people look at the headlines of the bombastic comments Trump will make about like taking Greenland or adding Canada as the 51st state and just look at his face value as Trump being a bombastic sort of psychophant.
Psychophant, but it's actually not a psychophant, but like an absurd person.
But like actually, I think strategically, it's like, no, we need these rare earths.
And Canada has a lot of oil and natural gas that we could probably leverage to to build out all this energy infrastructure that is necessary.
Yeah. So I ran a very large macro book back during the financial crisis.
And I was in China in May of 2008, exactly when oil was getting above $150.
And I was there to see if there was any chance that China wouldn't be impacted by what was happening in the U.S., which at that time, you know, for people not involved in the market, the rest of the China in particular did not believe it would be impacted by the U.S. housing problem.
And I went over there to get a better understanding of why oil was at $150 when the U.S. economy was falling fairly sharply.
And everyone kept talking about how China was still growing energy, but they weren't using oil.
They were using coal.
And what I saw was that at the time, China needed to import an enormous amount of coal to keep running their country at the level they did.
And they were trying to not slow down at the time the U.S. was collapsing.
And obviously Lehman Brothers ended that. But I left there in June of 08 and I had a very large emerging marketing commodity portfolio, which I took down. And the reason was because I could see that the coal side was already an intense problem.
The reason oil was going up is because the bottlenecks that were happening in coal from shipping them from around the globe.
And this is the important thing that I want to mention for the power side for people that we're going to run into this again.
There's plenty of oil and gas and copper around the globe.
It's all somewhere.
We know where it is.
We can go get it.
But the question is, can we get it as fast as the demand side is growing?
And that's the problem we're going to run into.
And the reason the coal thing became an issue is because trade finance broke down once Lehman Brothers there and then the whole dominoes broke down.
In the case of power, the U.S. is trying to invest, trying to triple nuclear.
They're trying to do anything possible on the gas and fossil fuel side.
But the big, beautiful bill is going to hurt some of the ability for wind and solar to go to go to go forward.
So I think over the second half of this year, I wrote a research paper.
I believe Exxon and Chevron are going to benefit from this.
They're not direct plays, but I'll always be reminded of what happened with coal, which led to oil.
And I think in this case, if you can't get nuclear and you can't get the clean energy you need, you're just going to go use the dirty energy.
And so I think you're going to see a surprising upward side of oil prices, of natural gas, of copper, and also of a lot of the commodity names this year.
And as that plays out, I think it'll be evident to people that we definitely don't have enough power for the next couple of years away from Stan.
Yeah.
Now, the power thing is incredibly frustrating.
So you look at the curve of generation in the United States, a flat line for essentially three to four decades.
Now it's beginning to creep back up.
But that's probably my biggest worry is it too little, too late to try to catch up with China in terms of power generation.
Yeah, our grid is so old. And, you know, the curve you're talking about, like we've dramatically increased our fossil fuel production. I mean, we were in 2008 at the time when oil is 150. The titles of most of the articles were the US was screwed because of peak oil and we didn't, we were importing oil. So we were at a major issue.
So here we are now and we're the largest exporter of natural gas and we produce now an increase from I think it was 1 million barrels a day up to where we are now, up near 13 or 12.
So we've changed the entire kind of way that the economy is run.
But the thing that has stayed the same has basically been our electricity usage.
So our electricity usage peaked not that long ago. And as our nominal GDP, which used to be what electricity increase was, you started seeing an efficiency gain. And we just have an old grid. So it's very hard to enable us to get more.
And so if you read, I think Elon Musk this week, it was announced that he purchased a power plant overseas that he's importing into the country just to give you an idea of how much power is needed.
And that's for his new – his next phase of Colossus and the big data center that he's building out.
So I think this – again, this will be a major theme.
Our data center buildout is accelerating now and it's just going to take a lot of power and we're not ready for it.
Neither is the grid.
It almost feels like to me I've been living in Texas for the last four years and you see what's happening within ERCOT specifically.
Yeah.
And it's obvious that the administration now understands this problem and understands that we need to get going in terms of expanding generation.
There has to be a meeting of the grid minds here in the United States with ERCOT leading it saying, all right, here's how we did this over the last 30 years and here's how you can do it.
It's going to lead to a lot of deregulation and disruption of the way you've been doing business since over the last century.
But if we're actually going to go achieve these energy expansion goals, here's how it needs to be done.
Texas is going to be really interesting in this whole thing.
I, you know, for ERCOT to be a almost like a well-known thing now for non-utility people
throughout the country where, you know, I do a lot of stuff now for 22V in terms of institutional
research.
And we're going to be going down to Texas probably in August as part of a, you know,
a data center trip.
We'll meet with ERCOT.
We're going to see a small nuclear, a modular nuclear build out.
And then we're going to go to a humanoid company.
And the goal is really to show institutional investors, A, how close we are on all of this stuff.
But secondly, the massive electricity needs and build out that has to happen in Texas because of the Abilene build out from Stargate.
You've got other data centers in other places.
Texas is just the home right now to everything going on from the build outside.
Yeah, and we have the ability to do this in a capital efficient way because of Bitcoin mining.
I know you've been mentioning Bitcoin mining as the energy buyer of last resort.
But one of the things I've been saying for years, having been immersed in the mining industry since 2018,
it's not only the buyer of last resort, it's the buyer of first resort too.
And I think one of the problems that these grids have is you can build power facilities,
but it takes time to build transmission to the grid.
And that time lapse creates this inefficient use of capital.
We're now at Bitcoin mining.
You can build the generation asset, put a mining operation behind the meter at the site,
build out transmission, and then create revenue while transmission is being built out to the rest of the grid.
And so I think in terms of actually building out more generation,
And Bitcoin mining needs to be part of the conversation in terms of helping to enable
that and de-risk it.
Yeah.
And this week, obviously, with Core Scientific and Core Weave, this was a big moment again.
This year has I mean let start at last year So if you were looking post FTX and post kind of the destruction of the 22 year you needed to have more of a merging between the traditional finance world the fiat world and crypto
And stable coins is one of those bridges to help.
And obviously the Circle IPO has brought a big spotlight.
Last year you had the ETF launches, which was a natural way for people to not have to go set up wallets and not have to go that whole route.
But in the long run, to actually have the system, the digital economy accelerate, you need to have payments.
Stablecoin will not only accelerate the volumes and the transactions that are happening around the globe, but it also leads to a much easier way for any individual to have wallets set up.
And by having more ability for wallets, then you end up with the transactions and the money being in the digital economy and then it's staying there.
While the power side, you have the data centers. And so you have CoreWeave, which was a successful IPO this year. And then they go out and decide, OK, we're going to go buy a Bitcoin miner. You're getting the bridging between the power side of both the AI and crypto. And I don't think people are seeing this.
That's why the last phase for me is the power side, not the electricity, but the digital oil side.
And that's where Ethereum to me is really important for this year for the next crossover point.
I think people have to understand and start thinking about, well, why is Circle important as a company?
And now I start hearing people say, wow, Tether should be a trillion dollar company or any of these different things.
As long as fiat people can convert the way they're thinking in the traditional way into the crypto world, which you cannot do with Bitcoin other than call it digital gold, which to me is not worth people to think about it that way.
They need actually some things where they can invest in it and they can make an argument.
And eventually with Ethereum, regardless of people's beliefs on it, I think there will be a conversion at some point that will make people think about it in the way that it should when it gets explained.
that if you believe we're going to do, you know, that stable coins will go from 250 or 260
billion up to, you know, a trillion plus over the course of the next 18 months, if you believe that
and you think volumes are going to continue to explode, then I think people are going to make
the natural transition to what's powering that? What else should benefit from it? Where should it
go? And if they start going to the quote unquote digital oil side, then Ethereum should get it.
We should get speculation there.
So I like these crossover points between the traditional fiat world and the crypto world.
And I think the power side through the Bitcoin miners is just another natural transition for people.
Again, equally unnerving and exciting.
I feel very fortunate just by not happenchance, but I chose the path to focus on Bitcoin and have been maniacally obsessed with it for 12 years.
And I don't think if you would have told me five, seven years ago that this convergence would be happening, I would have probably been like, maybe.
But like now that it's here, it's like, holy crap.
It's a really good spot to be in as an individual playing sort of in these two worlds, particularly between Bitcoin and power, which is a lot of my passion.
See, I think the bigger point as someone who didn't start getting from an investment point involved until 2020.
So I am a big student of history.
And when I talked about LEI, you know, it was 2013 that I started understanding exponential innovation and what would happen.
And I wish in 2014 after I got – so 2013 was when I stopped going to China every year for a month and I started going to Silicon Valley.
So for me, that was the admission that the LEI was done.
And that was literally what it was.
2013, I realized that the government basically just ended business cycles.
China had peaked.
Their demographics were a foregone conclusion.
There was no way to turn it the other direction.
I don't think most people watching this think about China in the context of the globe, but China is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding.
The one-child policy is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding because it meant that the caboose, the last part of the Industrial Revolution, it ended in 2013 and they had a massive debt problem on the real estate side, which they still have.
That meant they had to start printing. So when you go look at money supply of the world,
China's 50% of the money supply. So they've made it illegal to invest in Bitcoin. They've done all
kinds of things to really hamper the growth. But for me, when 2013 became evident, that's when I
started to get involved in terms of believing that exponential innovation was coming. Well,
Marc Andreessen wrote a paper titled Why Bitcoin Matters in 2014 for Andreessen Horowitz.
And if I would have read that paper in 2014, I would have invested right there in that because I went to Silicon Valley trying to explain why Amazon could trade at the highest multiples ever for a long period of time and why a company that didn't make money could trade as one of the biggest companies in the world.
and why Bitcoin matters was an important writing about the Bitcoin white paper, how it was coding
genius, and more importantly, how over the next 20 years, it would basically be the most important
part of the digital economy outside of the birth of the internet, the birth of the personal
computer. Now, I read that in 2020. And now when you look at today, that paper that he wrote was
effectively that Bitcoin had solved digital money and that Bitcoin would be the money transaction
piece. That didn't happen. So the fact that stable coins has effectively taken that reign,
it's actually really interesting because it means the evolution of the technology and the innovation
and Bitcoin kind of establishing itself as this separate entity, which is really I needed to know
what it was. I have said publicly and I still believe it, that Bitcoin represents the S&P 500
of the future. It is the ultimate capital structure global. It is the global S&P.
If you're going to invest in something that says innovation is here, the S&P 500 is an amorphous
thing that changes the companies constantly at a slow pace. If you believe it was changing
companies, like if there was a new Mag 7 tomorrow and the old Mag 7 would be gone, as an investor,
you'd still make money even though half the companies are gone now. And the reason is because
you're invested in the S&P 500. You're not invested in just in Apple or just in whatever.
Well, that's what Bitcoin is. It's the end result of all the destruction of every company that has
ever existed. The money needs to go somewhere because it's not disappearing. And Bitcoin is
the global representation. So I wish I would have read Marc Andreessen and had the luck you did of
getting involved 12 years ago, but I'm enjoying my time now. I remember that. And then he did an
opinion piece in the New York Times or maybe that it was.
No, it was on their website, but it was also in the opinion piece.
Yeah.
And the, I mean, to this point too, like when it comes to the conversation of like stable
coins versus Bitcoin payments, you've mentioned this as bridge.
And that's how I view stable coins, this sort of transitionary mechanism to get us to a
Bitcoin standard.
Because that's the question in the long run, like stable coins are representative of US
dollars. And you've had the administration come out in recent months and pretty much acknowledge
like, hey, we gave it a good try with Doge. We're doing the big, beautiful bill. Doge is not really
tenable in the long run because of Social Security, Medicaid and other things. We've got to turn it on
turbo, essentially expand the debt, lower rates and hope that we can just grow GDP at a faster rate
and we're expanding the monetary base.
And I think that's the big question.
And so what is the end result of those fiscal and monetary policies
on the purchasing power of the dollar over the next 10, 15 years?
Yeah.
And with this whole scenario playing out,
I've used AI to kind of decide how it all ends
because AI will solve almost all of the debt deficit problems over time.
So if you believe in abundance, which I do, and I believe it'll be here within 15 years, that gives enough time for us to solve the power needs.
It gets enough time for us to basically solve for longevity.
It gives us the ability – and the reason those are so important, until you have energy abundance, you can't get rid of the debt problem.
We talk about AI and what's the weakness.
power is what slows down innovation it always will be um if we solve for fusion and everything is
immediate then there's no more you know we won't have any problem with power all the problems will
be solved because of asi and agi if people don't die of diseases anymore which is where i mean
isomorphic labs if people want to go read news that came out this week um and what demis asab is
a deep mind has really been focused on since 2016 since alpha go we're at that point where they
believe that they can cure all diseases. They're starting with cancer. And isomorphic labs is
basically going to start rolling out some of the work that they've been doing. If all of these
things happen, then you're going to reduce the deficit because the expense side of the government
is going to come down because most of the expenses have to do with aging in terms of social security,
in terms of Medicare and Medicaid. So I'm a believer in abundance. I think people have
probably about five years, which is why I agree with what Vino Casla talked about, which I
referenced on this in the interview. If people haven't seen it, he was on the podcast Uncapped
with Jack Altman, Sam Altman from OpenAI's brother. And he just openly talked about things
that I've always believed in since Ray Kurzweil. But when you get to AGI and ASI,
companies, the S&P 500 companies should be under complete attack. And since I believe AI startups
will replace them and they'll all be private through tokenization, the investment in the S&P
500 will start to decay. And you'll end up with a scenario that to me is headed towards abundance
and headed towards real-time everything. And if that happens currency-wise, I don't know if
stablecoins will still be here then, but we need a bridge to get us to where everyone is transacting,
Everyone has wallets. Everyone embraces this. And I think that all has to happen in the lead up to abundance. So I think it'll happen more rapidly now over the next five years.
yeah and you mentioned this in the beginning of the conversation but i made a mental note to come
back to it because i'm a father of uh i've got two young boys a third child on the way at the end of
the summer and like this is top of my mind thinking of the next 15 years as they enter their teenage
years and their adulthood over the course of the next two decades like how do i position them
um force it like is this based off of uh what you're describing from now the 2030s will be
acceleration the 2030s will be a decade of reorganization then the 40s a decade of abundance
like is it a perfect time to be born right now and you'll be an adult by the time abundance is here
yeah i mean i my kids are older but i think about it every day and like i said it was after that
first trip to Silicon Valley. So in 2013, my kids were, you know, under 15. And so I started
thinking about, you know, school. I offered all my kids, none of them took me up on it.
But I already thought a college education was a waste of time. And that I wanted them to get a
degree, but I also wanted them to get the pure benefit from college, which was a social experience.
But I told them I'd prefer if they went to Europe and just spent four years in Europe, got an online education and traveled and let me spend the money on that and just get an online degree and at least you have a college education.
But you have that experience of traveling and building up kind of the knowledge of what I think the abundance world is going to look like, which is the ability of just enjoying life and finding ways to keep learning.
And like I said, I learned more from conversations with people.
You know, I have a lot of a lot of things in my life.
I'm grateful for for people that I've met.
My best friend, the best man at my wedding died in 9-11.
And at that point, when I was in my 30s, I just, you know, had a very clear decision that life is short and I wanted to enjoy every minute.
And I started meditating and I started getting involved with not letting a bad day impact the next day.
And unfortunately, in abundance, if you extrapolate kind of the scary part of it, which is what do we do?
What goes on?
I don't think humans will ever not work in some fashion.
I think it might be different.
But I would teach your kids to be creative, to use AI from a very early age and ask questions to build things, to be people that can enjoy nature.
I started skiing in my 40s because I grew up fairly poor and didn't have the money.
My parents didn't take me skiing.
And I thought it would be a great thing for my kids because I wanted to enjoy nature during the wintertime.
As simple as that sounds, I think enjoying nature in the wintertime is one way to think of handling abundance.
Because if you just lock yourself inside your house, you kind of go stir crazy.
And I think that's the thing people are scared of the most is they're going to have so much time on their hands.
How do I fill up the time?
I think it has to be between people and conversations, learning, creativity and things that bring you joy, but also one with nature and going out and embracing it year round.
So I completely agree.
Get out, touch grass in the sun.
That's why we come to the beach in the summer where we're ocean people.
And so boys are in the ocean for five hours a day.
Exactly.
And there was one thing.
Last thing I wanted to end it on.
And I think it's really important that you're framing it this way in terms of using AI.
I think there's a lot of misconceptions about how an individual, no matter your competency, can leverage these tools.
Many people think it's daunting.
Like, it's hard to use.
And I think you've done a really good job of articulating it on your weekly videos of you've got to use it.
You've got to use it every day, multiple times a day, and think with it because it learns about you as you're using it.
and sort of not just thinking of it as a one-off tool
to go do a simple task,
but literally ingratiating it into you
or day-to-day processes.
And I think just having used it myself
over the last two and a half, three years,
it's much easier to pick up
than I think many people think.
You can basically ask it to teach you
how to interact with it,
and it will do that pretty sufficiently.
So I'll give people...
All right.
So here are three things based on the last 24 hours.
Two I've done and then one that they can take from this conversation.
And, you know, if people are watching this, they're old enough, most likely, that they either have kids or they're thinking about kids.
And I think setting an example for your kids to use AI is the only way to help prepare them for abundance.
They have to get used to this.
And so I have a, you know, I'm not up in Maine all the time.
And I came up and my garbage disposal wasn't working.
Now, I'm not a plumber.
Normally, I would just call a plumber and have him come over.
But instead, this time, because AI is multimodal, I went to ChatGPT.
I hit the little plus button and I took a photo of the garbage disposal.
I said, hey, the garbage disposal is making a buzzing sound.
What am I supposed to do?
It looked at the model.
It said, take a photo underneath it so I can see what the bottom looks like.
It took a photo.
It said, go get an Allen wrench and turn this about three times and then it should be working.
And that's exactly what happened.
Now, if I would have gone to YouTube, I would have probably had to search.
I would have figured it out, but it might have taken two hours to watch the video, go through it.
having a conversation with chat GPT and showing a photo. If you have a wildflower on your,
you know, on your property, just take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. If you have a bug
bite on your leg, take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. Anything that you want to use it
for If you worried that you you know your newborn has a rash around its neck take a photo of it and upload it All those things are now where instead of Google instead of YouTube you should be using it I cook and I a good cook Tonight I going to be making shrimp with
a white bean puree, but I wanted to kind of, you know, change it up a little bit. So I started
having conversation and literally went through and said, okay, I have a bunch of basil. I have
a bunch of lemon. I really want to get a strong flavor inside the puree. What should I do? That's
the way that I kind of build recipes on top of recipes and I kind of go through what I have.
And so for anyone that cooks, just try it out and go through it. But most importantly,
and the number one thing, and I wrote a sub stack about this, I mentioned Joseph Schumpeter. If
you've never heard of Joseph Schumpeter, if you've never really thought about what creative
destruction is, when you're done watching this, just go click to the far right of the free version
of ChatGPT, you will see a round button on it, just a round globe, just hit it. It'll bring up
what Siri is supposed to be with your AirPods on. Just have a conversation and say,
I want to learn more about Joseph Schumpeter and just start a conversation. When you're driving in
a car, have a conversation. If you have a conversation with ChatGPT or any of the voice
modes, Grok is there. I think Grok 4 is coming out or came out last night or it's coming out tonight.
perplexity. They all have voice mode. Gemini does. Just go have a conversation and start getting used
to, hey, I want to read this book. Will you tell me what it's about? Okay. Instead of reading it,
I'm just going to have a conversation with you about it. And you can have a conversation
for literally a two hour drive nonstop. It'll change the way that you live your life. And once
you start to have a conversation, you'll stop using Google. And once you stop using Google,
you'll start to appreciate all the things that I just mentioned.
yeah no on the cooking note i uh my dad unfortunately passed away a couple years ago
but he had this uh very specific way of cooking a holiday filet in the oven like jack it up and i
couldn't remember the exact steps but i went to chat gpt and i was like hey my dad used to cook
the fillets this way i know he would turn the oven up really hot and turn it down like uh we've got a
five pound fillet can you can you find this uh this style of cooking a fillet and tell me how to do it and like within 30 seconds it was like oh this is the this is like the high heat turn it down quick mode And like
we had a perfect filet a few hours later. That's actually a perfect example of if you
give it enough information, it will go and search specifically for what you're saying,
which you cannot do in Google. There's no way to do it in Google. So when you get into these
specifics where you go through it, it'll come up with it. If you do this with,
I grilled a pizza and someone wanted to go through the nuances of how you make a great pizza on the
grill without it being directly on the grill. And it's not an easy thing. You have to trial and
error. You have to go through it. I explained why I have two bricks under a pizza stone to get it
elevated so the flames are not close to the dough and how it has to be the perfect size and blah,
blah, blah, and everything else. The great thing about AI, to use the biggest fear of it,
doesn't it have hallucinations? If you don't want the answer to have hallucinations,
just include in the prompt, do not hallucinate, do not include anything that is not a fact.
The beauty of this thing is that if you tell it exactly what you want, whether it's, you know,
I want to cook this at a high heat and then lower it. So I want the first 10 minutes to build a
crust around it at 500 degrees and then I want to lower the filet down to 250 after that what
recipe should I use so I get the thick crust but I still get it tender on the inside it'll give you
what you want if you say don't hallucinate give me the exact answers and the factual stuff it'll
spend extra time to go through it so people just need to stop being fearful of it and just experiment
with it and you'll just be blown away by everything it can do yeah so overall optimistic I take it
I have a hat that says half full.
So I don't believe in pessimism.
I'm a New York Jets fan, New York Mets fan, New York Knicks fan.
I've got a long time without a championship.
So I am optimistic when the season ends.
I'm looking forward to the season next year.
Well as a Phillies guy I been reveling in your pain over the last couple of decades There you go Jordy this has been incredible Thank you for just putting the information out there
and being an open book about your thoughts and everything.
It's been incredibly valuable for me
over the last couple of months
as I've been diving into your weekly videos.
And I really appreciate your time coming in
and having this conversation today.
I think people are going to love it.
Yeah, you guys post content too.
I use a lot of it in my weekly videos.
So the same goes to you.
And the more that we're out there spreading the don't be fearful of AI and Bitcoin and crypto is not what you think it is.
It just helps bring more and more people in.
So I'm part of that community of trying to educate people.
And we're there together.
So I appreciate you inviting me.
Yeah, we're going to win, as we say here.
We're going to win.
All right.
Peace and love, Freaks.
The King.
Freaks, thank you for listening to the show.
I hope you liked it.
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server right now it's conversation between myself and tftc elite tier members but we're going to
expand that.
We'll probably do closed Q and A's with people in the industry.
I may be doing macro Mondays.
So join us at tftc.io subscribe,
find the button in the top right corner of the website,
become a TFTC elite member.
Thank you for joining us.
Okay.