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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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We talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

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All the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

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In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Scott, welcome back to the show.

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I reached out to you last week as silver prices were going, continue to go parabolic,

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continuing the run that they had in 2025 as it stands right now as a recording on Tuesday afternoon, January 20th.

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Silver sitting at $94.46, which is pretty astonishing if you ask me, especially considering where the price was last year.

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What is the silver market telling us right now?

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Thanks for having me, Marty. It's good to be here, man. It's good to catch up.

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So let's talk about silver.

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Yeah, so we have sort of the big long playing out in the silver market.

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You have an underlying asset which is not freely available to be borrowed and loaned anymore as the supply has become extremely tight.

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You have industrial uses that are outpacing our mining supply, so we're in a structural deficit.

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And large companies that need silver are hoarding it.

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So you have this crazy scenario with a tremendous derivatives complex built on top of a metal that is not freely available to be borrowed, shorted, and loaned.

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And that leads to a tremendous squeeze in the underlying complex.

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And I think that's what we're witnessing.

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The question is, where does it go?

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You know, silver is so interesting because the industrial uses are so great.

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So whether we're talking about solar or we're talking about electronics or we're talking about batteries, but the amount of silver that goes into any one particular product isn't that great.

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So that means the industrial buyers are really price insensitive because they need the metal.

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So we have this crazy scenario built up where the derivatives traders have made huge bets on the price of silver.

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We know that the listed markets are gigantic, but the over-the-counter markets are where all the action is.

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And we have no visibility into just how much silver is shorted over-the-counter, but, you know, seen rumors out there of 5 billion ounces.

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Could it be true?

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Maybe.

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I would not be surprised, right?

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The arrogance and the hubris of derivatives traders can be their unwinding and their undoing.

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So we'll see where this goes.

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But at some point, you know, what's so interesting to me is we've gone from essentially, let's say, high 20s to 95.

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And not a single body has floated to the surface just yet.

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But we know at some point the body will float to the surface.

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We're going to find out where the damage is.

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And that's where things are going to get crazy.

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I think that's a big question on everybody's mind.

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And I guess to dive into a few of the things you mentioned there, firstly, from your perspective, how much of this price squeeze is being driven by just industrial demand as the price goes up?

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The companies implementing silver into their products at an industrial scale realize, hey, we need to get more.

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If the price keeps running, it's going to be more expensive.

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How much of it is driven by that?

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How much is driven by a flight to precious metals because of geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty rising around the world?

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And then how much would you contribute to derivatives traders getting caught off sides and just letting the price actually find true discovery because those trades are being unwound?

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Wow, that's a great question.

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Let's say, you know, there's a fourth one in there, and it goes into the geopolitical risk.

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But I think that there's a hot war developing, the hot war, you know, kinetic war not being with missiles and bombs, but being with economics.

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So the question is, is China squeezing the U.S. or is the U.S. squeezing China?

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And then who gets caught in the crossfire?

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certainly Europe would seem likely as a potential victim of the fight.

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But I suspect that China's move to cut exports of silver was a shot over the bow of the U.S.

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The U.S. will react potentially taking countries like Venezuela that have large silver supplies

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and supply China with ore.

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We're in, I mean, I'm almost speechless to try to describe how dangerous this moment is in time.

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But we're going to have to kind of work our way through.

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The derivative guys are going to be the bodies, right?

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They're going to be the guys that get just absolutely demolished.

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And, you know, I'm curious with everything that's going on with Greenland, what does that have to do with silver?

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And I think there's more there than probably meets the eye.

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I think that the U.S. is in one way or another, you know, happy to see strife between the European continent and the U.S.

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They'd like to undo the leadership in Europe, which is controlled by central banking.

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Remember, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, they're all essentially

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one entity through the Bank of International Settlements.

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And Europe is so heavily controlled by the ECB, it's hard for me to divorce what's going

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on in silver from what's going on in central banking. And I think the Trump administration

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would like to really put the Fed behind the eight ball. And in doing so, they really have to go

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after the city of London and the ECB and all of those entities. All of this stuff has to be tied

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together, right? Putting the puzzle together seems extremely difficult at this moment. But

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for me, I think they're all tied together. Yeah. To your point about Greenland and Europe being in

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the crosshairs and probably going to be the sort of a benefactor, for lack of a better term,

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or the benefactor of the bad economic implications of whatever's happening right now. I'm sure you've

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seen clips coming out of Davos, the World Economic Forum's going on right now. And I tweeted less

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an hour ago, Mark Carney was giving a speech. And to me, he's the epitome of globalist Davos

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Rott with what he did at HSBC, the Bank of England. Now, he's the prime minister of Canada. I think

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he's one of the sort of globalist generals that has been trotted around. And he's been stationed

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in different parts of the world to achieve certain things. And he was on stage today, basically

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squirming and trying to get a point across that what Donald Trump and the United States are doing

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from an economic and geopolitical policy perspective is unsustainable. And the fact

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that he was scared squirming and lashing out as aggressively as he was on stage there was a signal

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to me like, oh, they do feel the pressure. And I guess something that the Trump administration is

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doing is making them squirm, which, if you ask me, is a good thing, because I don't think we can

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continue down the path of the rules-based international order really controlled by

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central banks that you mentioned earlier. Yeah, agreed. And to that point, you had

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Bissent come out just recently, just today, and say, you know, Europe has no ammo in their gun,

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and they present no risk on an economic front.

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So, yeah, wow.

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They're just, you know, we could talk about Japan.

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We could talk about Europe.

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It would seem to me that, and here's my best guess.

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My best guess is that it's a large European bank that's offsides in silver in a major way.

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Let's just take UBS as my prime suspect.

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And this move in silver is coordinated to go after the European banking system.

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That would be my best guess as to what we're seeing.

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I imagine J.P. Morgan got themselves in a good position.

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Who knows about Bank of America and Citigroup?

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I would assume that they're okay, but that's a major assumption.

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But again, it comes back to the fundamentals of a market like silver requires, and I keep repeating this because it does transition into a Bitcoin story.

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But a market like silver requires that you can borrow, loan, and short the underlying asset.

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And we're seeing lease rates in silver explode, which means you can't borrow it.

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It's getting really, really tight.

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And that means that whoever's short silver is pretty much dead, right?

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There's no way out of this conundrum.

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Wouldn't it be amazing to watch a European bank go down and UBS,

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they're already sitting on their GameStop problem through their Credit Suisse acquisition.

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Really possibly silver could be the nail in the coffin over there.

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And, you know, that brings us to the next question, which is, if it is UBS,

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how does UBS get backstopped by Switzerland?

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I mean, there's only so many Patek Philippe's and chocolates and wood shoes that they can sell to backstop UBS.

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Right. So who backstops UBS?

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I don't know. I mean, it's you know, I don't know how that would play out.

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But you've got to believe that all of these things that are happening are sort of interconnected and tied together.

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Yeah. And I was doing research on the Credit Suisse acquisition to refresh my memory because that happened in 2023.

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They basically acquired them in a fire sale for $3.25 billion.

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But you mentioned the GameStop.

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I think just to re-educate people about what UBS actually acquired,

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Credit Suisse had some terribly offside bond exposure, I believe, when they were acquired by UBS.

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And that was a big question after they were acquired.

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Like, how much can they paper over and band-aid over that terrible toxic debt problem that they acquired from Credit Suisse?

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And if I recall correctly, almost three years ago when it was going on, people said this is just a ticking time bomb.

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It's going to sit on this balance sheet for a few years.

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Yeah. And to add to their bond lows, there was the GameStop story. Archegos was primed at Credit Suisse. So again, all of this paper stuff is so fake. And yet silver is so real, right?

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Like silver is a real asset and you can measure it.

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You know, people can demand delivery of it.

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It's so much different than paper problems that can be, you know, covered up or papered over, as you said.

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You cannot paper over physical silver.

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Now, you can paper over the losses.

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You can print money and fill in those holes.

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you know the monopoly board the monopoly banker never goes under he just prints more paper

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but you can't print more silver and that's where things can get really crazy

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well i think they especially get crazy when people start demanding the physical

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and so can you speak to the sort of development of that trend which i think we're seeing what

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It would be a classical vault run on the physical as people begin to question.

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Right.

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So if you're Samsung or you're a large solar company or you're Tesla or you're NVIDIA, you need silver.

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Right?

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Without silver, you stop your production lines.

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So they're going to go out and they're going to get the silver.

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if they become afraid that they can't get it at the COMEX, as they are becoming.

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We know that Tesla's been traveling around Peru talking to silver mines,

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trying to buy silver directly from the mines.

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That story's been out there for quite a while.

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So the problem in the silver market is that these large industrial users,

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consumers, are going to go out and they're going to acquire the silver.

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by whatever means necessary, and they're not going to be price sensitive. They need the silver.

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At the same time, the producers, the mines, the smelters, the refiners, they're in a different

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position because if they've used the futures markets to hedge their positions, well, what

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happens if you, let's just give an example. You're a silver refiner and you buy $50 million

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worth of silver. You go out, it's going to take you a month to produce the actual silver from the

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ore. So you go out and you hedge and now your hedge goes up 50% and you get margin called on

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your hedge. So now you're forced into a position where you almost have to take your hedge off

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because you don't have the capital to protect your hedge. So the people using the paper markets

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appropriately, the consumers and the producers, they can get squeezed tremendously. The producers

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can get squeezed because they get margin called on their short positions. The consumers can get

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squeezed because they run in fear that the COMEX is not going to be able to give them the metal.

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and they're going to get a force majeure scenario where they get cash back instead of the metal

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because the metal is not available. So you have both sides of the equation are in a really,

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really tough spot. And if you're a producer, you probably don't want to be hedged right now,

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right? Because who knows whether you have the capital to withstand silver running to 200 or

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300. You might get margin called out and be bankrupted. Same thing happens to the miners,

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right? What if the miners are hedged? So the story here goes beyond just the end uses.

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It's the entire supply chain that you can run into trouble by a price dislocating and going crazy

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because remember, when they sell forward contracts, they have to produce margin.

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Yeah, for the forward contracts, for anybody listening,

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somebody will basically give them cash up front for delivery of physical

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at some point in the future.

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Yeah, in many cases, they'll go into the COMEX, right?

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The COMEX has been the sort of hub of silver, the LBMA,

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and they'll sell futures contracts.

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Well, as the COMEX continues to raise margin requirements and the price goes higher, well, they have to continue to put up capital to cover their short position.

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At some point, they just don't have the money, and no bank's going to make them a loan to cover their margin requirements when volatility is like it is.

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So now you end up in a real tough spot if you just a silver miner who been hedging appropriately trying to do the best by your shareholders Yeah it insane And I think that gets to the big question on everybody mind is how high can this run I seen some people commenting on the silver chart and looking like hey this is a blow off top

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It's going to end soon.

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I've seen people respond to that.

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You're looking at it at the wrong scale.

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Put it on log.

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What do you think could happen here?

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Do you think this could be a blow off top where we're going to correct dramatically and we'll go back to?

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What silver was before or something similar to whatever it was, 2011, 2012, or is this time different?

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I think it's different.

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I think you're seeing a structural repricing.

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So imagine you're sitting on land in Texas at $500 an acre, and then all of a sudden somebody figures out there's oil under that land, right?

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And the next day, that land becomes worth $10,000 an acre, right?

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And you see a structural repricing in the price of that land.

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I think that's what we're seeing in the silver market.

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And so how what what does the structural repricing look like?

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Well, we don't know. Again, a lot of this depends on what happens in the derivatives complex.

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Do we get to a force majeure? How tight is the supply? Do governments begin to hoard?

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In the in the recent military bill that was just passed, two and a half billion dollars was allocated for purchasing strategically important metals.

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metals resources.

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Silver was on the top of that list.

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So if the U.S. government starts hoarding silver and the Chinese government's hoarding silver,

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we're talking, you know, these are, the number becomes sort of irrelevant at the point when

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you have a printing press and you're trying to buy the metal.

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So how high can we go?

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We could go really, really high, much higher than anybody expects.

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Yeah.

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And that, I mean, this ties into, I mean, to your point, like, I can only imagine what's happening behind the scenes right now.

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People trying to plug holes in balance sheets and basically bail out behind the scene without announcing it.

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We just went over $95 again.

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But then something we alluded to earlier, but then you have other things going on in the market,

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like the Japanese yield curve blowing out at the same time as all of this is

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going on.

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And it makes you wonder is like,

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how much can they actually,

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how much can they help this situation?

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Can they actually pluck the holes of all this is happening at once?

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And if you're an institutional fund with exposure,

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all these different markets,

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like how much is too much all at once?

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Yeah.

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And the question is how big are the unrealized losses,

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right?

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At some point, they're going to come to the surface.

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We're going to find out who's in trouble.

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And I suspect we're going to find out fairly soon.

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Blowing out yield curves and seeing long bonds take off, well, somebody owns those bonds,

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and they're sitting on substantial losses.

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Now, in the case of Japan, it's probably less of a problem because they own 50% of their

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bond market.

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But in the case of the U.S., it becomes a real problem as capital gets repatriated.

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Japanese investors start bringing their money back and buying those bonds.

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That's the real risk here.

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The risk is to our bond market.

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At the same time, now the Europeans, they plan on going to war with the United States,

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00:20:58,516 --> 00:21:01,716
which you're watching pictures of troops landing in Greenland.

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The Danes threatening to sell their government bonds.

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And it's just chaos, right?

230
00:21:08,736 --> 00:21:10,716
It feels like operation chaos.

231
00:21:11,376 --> 00:21:13,476
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232
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236
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Having been doing, following these markets

266
00:22:50,816 --> 00:22:54,656
since I was 20 years old, working at the fund,

267
00:22:54,796 --> 00:22:56,076
it always felt like the big moment

268
00:22:56,076 --> 00:22:58,076
was right around the corner.

269
00:22:58,176 --> 00:23:10,716
And that's what I'm just trying to check my priors with this specifically with the silver gold running with the Japanese yield curve blowouts and everything else.

270
00:23:10,816 --> 00:23:12,836
It's like, OK, it seems like this is the big one.

271
00:23:14,176 --> 00:23:21,616
But throughout my history, the last 15 years, the government has always been able to step in and paper over this.

272
00:23:21,616 --> 00:23:45,496
But when you factor in the geopolitical incohesion that exists, particularly between the United States and Europe, which if the blow up, if the problems are as big as we think they are behind the scenes, there would need to be some coordination and simpatico between Europe and the United States specifically.

273
00:23:45,496 --> 00:23:53,476
That just seems like we may be too far away from each other right now to successfully be able to coordinate a bailout of something of this magnitude.

274
00:23:53,816 --> 00:23:54,276
And who knows?

275
00:23:54,336 --> 00:23:57,836
Maybe the U.S. isn't as exposed to it as European banks.

276
00:23:58,376 --> 00:24:06,796
Maybe we're better positioned and we could view this market turmoil as an opportunity to weaken Europe even further.

277
00:24:08,956 --> 00:24:11,696
I think that's the correct take, right?

278
00:24:11,696 --> 00:24:20,796
Look, you know, as guys who have studied markets for forever, it feels like forever, we become experts in pattern recognition.

279
00:24:21,156 --> 00:24:30,576
So we're trying to look at these patterns and we're trying to look for previous patterns that look like this and, you know, things that we can learn from history.

280
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But I don't remember in my lifetime seeing patterns quite like this one.

281
00:24:36,076 --> 00:24:41,676
Right. So it feels like something tectonic is happening below the surface.

282
00:24:41,696 --> 00:25:02,556
And we just don't know because we're not privy to those discussions. But it does, you know, I don't think we can ignore the Ukraine war. I think that's playing a major role in what's going on here. I think Trump wants that over. And Europe wants nothing more than to continue fighting for whatever reason. And we don't understand that.

283
00:25:03,116 --> 00:25:11,016
You've got the sort of crazy immigration story in Europe and here in the United States that seems to be bubbling over.

284
00:25:11,176 --> 00:25:14,356
Like we haven't even discussed what's going on in Minnesota.

285
00:25:15,616 --> 00:25:18,016
That's tremendously destabilizing.

286
00:25:19,456 --> 00:25:26,476
So, man, at every level right now, there's so many things happening that it's hard to follow the ball.

287
00:25:27,256 --> 00:25:30,056
You know, I'm looking at Bitcoin's price.

288
00:25:30,056 --> 00:25:35,036
I find that interesting because I think that Bitcoin's the true measure of global liquidity.

289
00:25:35,756 --> 00:25:37,456
And I think liquidity is stressed right now.

290
00:25:38,356 --> 00:25:41,176
So at some point, somebody's going to break.

291
00:25:41,676 --> 00:25:43,836
And we'll see where that breaks.

292
00:25:43,996 --> 00:25:44,936
My guess is Europe.

293
00:25:46,256 --> 00:25:46,376
Yeah.

294
00:25:48,216 --> 00:25:49,076
Yeah, it is.

295
00:25:49,216 --> 00:25:51,996
It is watching a Bitcoin fell below 90K.

296
00:25:52,076 --> 00:25:54,616
And then you bring it home domestically.

297
00:25:54,616 --> 00:25:58,756
you look at Trump versus Powell and the sort of saber rattling that exists between those two

298
00:25:58,756 --> 00:26:05,416
with President Trump adamant about getting rates down as quickly as possible. And then you have,

299
00:26:05,716 --> 00:26:12,176
this is another thing, never had this in terms of a pattern emerge throughout one of these crises

300
00:26:12,176 --> 00:26:17,276
where you have Jerome Powell on a Sunday night release a video that looks like a hostage video.

301
00:26:17,276 --> 00:26:18,816
Hostage video, for sure.

302
00:26:19,336 --> 00:26:26,756
Opining on the inappropriateness of the politicization of the Federal Reserve

303
00:26:26,756 --> 00:26:31,636
and reassuring the markets that independence is key for the Fed

304
00:26:31,636 --> 00:26:35,776
and that the federal government should stop playing political games

305
00:26:35,776 --> 00:26:41,316
by filing a lawsuit against them for their work on the Federal Reserve.

306
00:26:41,316 --> 00:26:57,656
Yeah. Meanwhile, the Fed, who cut interest rates about a month before the election in September, 50 basis points, you know, unsuspected to try to to try to help Kamala Harris is now pleading, hey, we're not political.

307
00:26:58,376 --> 00:27:06,436
They're the most political body on Earth. And again, it's not just the Fed. Right. It's the Fed. It's the ECB. It's the Bank of Japan.

308
00:27:06,436 --> 00:27:10,076
And it's all of these entities, and we have to look at them as one.

309
00:27:10,656 --> 00:27:18,156
And that's why what's happening in Japan and what's happening in Europe, it's all about what's happening at the Fed and what's happening at the Bank of International Settlements.

310
00:27:18,276 --> 00:27:20,236
They must be in an outright panic right now.

311
00:27:23,216 --> 00:27:29,996
Again, as guys who rely on pattern recognition, when we go outside of the patterns, we don't really know what to do.

312
00:27:30,076 --> 00:27:34,976
We just kind of look back and go, wow, this is interesting, and try to draw conclusions.

313
00:27:34,976 --> 00:27:37,496
But sometimes the best thing to do is say, I don't know.

314
00:27:38,216 --> 00:27:39,876
That's how you keep yourself out of trouble.

315
00:27:41,056 --> 00:27:41,136
Yeah.

316
00:27:42,476 --> 00:27:46,956
I'm a big believer in that, admitting when you don't know, especially when you know you don't know.

317
00:27:47,136 --> 00:27:48,516
And I think that's the case here.

318
00:27:48,536 --> 00:27:49,676
I don't know exactly what's going on.

319
00:27:49,676 --> 00:27:52,596
But I will say, I mean, you brought up Minnesota.

320
00:27:53,216 --> 00:28:00,216
And it feels like there is a degree of stress in the air, particularly in the financial sector.

321
00:28:00,216 --> 00:28:03,776
and people in the finance sector looking at gold and silver run

322
00:28:03,776 --> 00:28:07,216
and now the Japanese government bond yield blowing out.

323
00:28:07,216 --> 00:28:12,936
And I don't think anybody's running around with their hair on fire quite yet,

324
00:28:12,956 --> 00:28:14,496
but like we've been alluding to behind the scenes,

325
00:28:14,576 --> 00:28:16,996
are probably very stressed out.

326
00:28:17,116 --> 00:28:22,396
And it seems like the markets are calling bullshit on the scam of the fiat

327
00:28:22,396 --> 00:28:26,796
and the sovereign debt system as it exists today.

328
00:28:26,796 --> 00:28:32,336
and I think a lot of people get worried like we can't have the financial system melt down.

329
00:28:32,716 --> 00:28:35,536
We need everything to be bailed out.

330
00:28:35,776 --> 00:28:37,436
Government central banks need to step in,

331
00:28:37,476 --> 00:28:40,016
but then you look at something like the Minnesota fraud,

332
00:28:40,136 --> 00:28:41,716
the fraud that was unearthed in California,

333
00:28:41,916 --> 00:28:46,076
and now there's been a bunch of copycats following Nick Shirley's steps

334
00:28:46,076 --> 00:28:49,316
and unearthing fraud that exists across the country,

335
00:28:49,316 --> 00:28:51,536
not only in Minnesota but in states across the country.

336
00:28:51,536 --> 00:29:01,896
I think it's pretty confident saying that the fraud that was unearthed in Minnesota, we can just assume that exists in every single state to some degree.

337
00:29:02,356 --> 00:29:16,736
And when you aggregate the amount of money that is simply being pilfered away from U.S. taxpayers and printed in debt and pointed towards overt fraud, the whole system is completely fraudulent.

338
00:29:16,736 --> 00:29:25,696
And the reason I bring this up is because, like, okay, if we're calling bullshit and there is going to be some financial turmoil, it's probably a good thing at the end of the day.

339
00:29:25,696 --> 00:29:49,016
Let's just get all this fraud, waste and abuse out of the way, reset the system and get back to a sound money standard where the governments and central banks don't have the ability to pilfer taxpayer money and debt taken out in the name of taxpayers to simply hand it to people who are just essentially just stealing it for their own good.

340
00:29:49,016 --> 00:29:57,016
whether they're buying new cars in new homes or taking that cash and sending it to a foreign country to fund terrorism.

341
00:29:57,216 --> 00:29:58,276
Yeah, worse yet, right?

342
00:29:58,356 --> 00:29:59,976
And Elon Musk went on Joe Rogan.

343
00:30:00,096 --> 00:30:03,956
I don't know if he caught it, but he said 50% of the government budget is fraud.

344
00:30:05,316 --> 00:30:05,796
50%.

345
00:30:05,796 --> 00:30:08,176
That's what, $7 trillion?

346
00:30:08,476 --> 00:30:10,456
That's $3.5 trillion in fraud?

347
00:30:10,616 --> 00:30:10,676
Yeah.

348
00:30:12,076 --> 00:30:16,756
You know, and then you have other talking heads coming up and saying, well, we've got to get back to a little bit of fraud.

349
00:30:16,756 --> 00:30:22,276
And I think a little bit of fraud is like telling a drug addict to smoke a little bit of crack.

350
00:30:22,716 --> 00:30:29,896
Right. It doesn't work. We are a nation of laws. Right. That's been what made America so investable.

351
00:30:30,536 --> 00:30:39,976
And the fraud story is an investment story in the end. Are you going to invest in a company that has 20 percent of their budget is fraud?

352
00:30:40,456 --> 00:30:46,196
No, of course not. So why are you going to invest in a country where 50 percent of their budget is fraud?

353
00:30:46,756 --> 00:31:01,096
And let's just take Elon at his word. I think he knows because he was in there with Doge. I think he got a look under the hood and said, oh, my goodness, what in the world is going on here? I really do think that it's crazy.

354
00:31:01,096 --> 00:31:15,196
And the whole meme of fiscal dominance that's really taken hold of the markets and become basically just like a rote description of the environment we're living in.

355
00:31:15,196 --> 00:31:19,316
It's like, oh, we're shifting from monetary policy dominance to fiscal dominance.

356
00:31:19,976 --> 00:31:24,756
And that meme has been growing for the last two years.

357
00:31:25,696 --> 00:31:26,796
It makes sense.

358
00:31:26,796 --> 00:31:32,576
Like the government is issuing all this debt to basically figure out what they're doing through yield curve.

359
00:31:32,616 --> 00:31:40,496
And it's like, OK, we're living in a system of fiscal dominance as dictated by the Treasury and the federal government spending our money.

360
00:31:40,636 --> 00:31:48,956
And to your point, we're finding out that 50 percent, almost almost four trillion dollars of that fiscal dominance is overt fraud.

361
00:31:49,096 --> 00:31:54,636
And I would not be surprised if that 50 percent estimation by Elon is even low.

362
00:31:54,636 --> 00:31:58,916
It's probably much higher, especially when you factor in the military budget.

363
00:31:59,156 --> 00:32:11,676
To think that there's not waste, fraud, and abuse happening within the black box of the military budget, which hasn't passed an audit in over a decade, would be extremely naive.

364
00:32:12,136 --> 00:32:15,236
And so we literally live in a fraudulent system here in the United States.

365
00:32:15,356 --> 00:32:18,596
The rule of law is not being respected.

366
00:32:19,236 --> 00:32:21,396
It's pure anarcho-tyranny.

367
00:32:21,396 --> 00:32:30,856
And that's the thing, I think, getting the message out to the American people and helping them realize, well, I do think Trump and his administration are doing a lot of good things.

368
00:32:30,896 --> 00:32:33,676
I think it's important to highlight that this fraud, waste and abuse is bipartisan.

369
00:32:33,976 --> 00:32:36,156
It's happening across both sides of the aisle.

370
00:32:36,316 --> 00:32:39,496
We're in the loot the treasury stage of late stage empire.

371
00:32:40,976 --> 00:32:42,716
Yeah, and I think that's right.

372
00:32:42,856 --> 00:32:47,416
Elon made that point that this is impossible to clean up because it's both sides.

373
00:32:47,416 --> 00:32:57,636
Look, when you talk about late stage, you know, I've been in the crack-up boom category for quite some time now

374
00:32:57,636 --> 00:33:03,316
And I think what we are witnessing is the early to middle stages of a crack-up boom

375
00:33:03,316 --> 00:33:07,816
At which point, look, there's two ways to get to a depression

376
00:33:07,816 --> 00:33:10,236
You get there through a deflationary spiral

377
00:33:10,236 --> 00:33:13,236
That's what everyone kind of thinks of when they think of a depression

378
00:33:13,236 --> 00:33:17,376
But you also get there through an inflationary, hyperinflationary environment

379
00:33:17,376 --> 00:33:30,576
And that's the risk here, right? The risk here is that we can't allow our interest rates to go to a point that they make sense because that would kill the economy and the deficit would get worse and the printing would get worse.

380
00:33:30,876 --> 00:33:43,416
So we're really stuck. You know, we're in a box. The government's going to have to step in and do some form of yield curve control or our rates will go to, you know, north of 10 percent.

381
00:33:43,416 --> 00:33:48,996
At what rate would you loan the U.S. government money for 30 years?

382
00:33:50,516 --> 00:33:50,636
Right?

383
00:33:50,936 --> 00:33:53,416
I mean, for me, that number would be north of 20%.

384
00:33:53,416 --> 00:33:55,076
Easily.

385
00:33:55,856 --> 00:33:56,076
Yeah.

386
00:33:56,316 --> 00:34:09,676
So given that that number is looking at 5% right now, and we know above 5%, you're going to have real problems, especially in the 10-year with housing, with auto loans.

387
00:34:09,716 --> 00:34:11,896
The entire economy would come grinding to a halt.

388
00:34:12,136 --> 00:34:13,176
So we're stuck.

389
00:34:13,416 --> 00:34:16,476
And the only way out is to print more money, right?

390
00:34:16,556 --> 00:34:18,496
Larry Lippard's got it 100% right.

391
00:34:18,596 --> 00:34:19,596
The big print is coming.

392
00:34:19,756 --> 00:34:21,796
It's coming in the form of yield curve control.

393
00:34:22,796 --> 00:34:24,776
But it all leads to a crack-up boom.

394
00:34:24,996 --> 00:34:26,796
I mean, eventually the dollar becomes worthless.

395
00:34:29,316 --> 00:34:32,876
How quickly do we get to the government intervention?

396
00:34:33,456 --> 00:34:38,536
Do the bodies need to show themselves and float to the surface?

397
00:34:39,056 --> 00:34:39,796
Yeah, I think so.

398
00:34:39,856 --> 00:34:42,916
But I think that's happening in 2026, right?

399
00:34:42,916 --> 00:35:00,332
But I don think we making it much longer And look I think when we step back and look at everything that happening here we can discount that this is about the midterms This is about defanging Donald Trump

400
00:35:00,332 --> 00:35:09,152
and dethroning him. And I think, look, 2026 has the potential to get absolutely wild.

401
00:35:09,552 --> 00:35:12,232
I think the powers that be, the Federal Reserve-

402
00:35:12,232 --> 00:35:14,392
Has the potential. It's been a hot start.

403
00:35:14,392 --> 00:35:26,452
Yeah, we're off to a great start. But the powers that be in the monetary kind of universe, they would like nothing more than to crash the economy and see Donald Trump removed in shame.

404
00:35:26,452 --> 00:35:45,932
And that's a real scary proposition. When you have the Federal Reserve, the European banks, the whole financial world wanting to crash the system simply to remove an American president and to defang him, that has a lot of potential to go sideways quickly.

405
00:35:45,932 --> 00:36:07,932
Yeah, I mean, it's having had multiple conversations with geopolitical and macro analysts over the last couple of months, particularly leading up to the end of 2025, beginning of this year, a lot of what do we have to look forward to or what are you expecting to happen in 2026?

406
00:36:07,932 --> 00:36:16,372
And I was, I don't want to say dismayed, but it was a bit shocked to hear multiple people respond almost immediately.

407
00:36:16,692 --> 00:36:21,932
Civil War, like number one on the list headed into 2026.

408
00:36:22,612 --> 00:36:28,172
And to your point about the year starting hot, I mean, you look at what's happening in Minnesota, you see all these ice protests.

409
00:36:28,172 --> 00:36:44,492
And then obviously the saber rattling from a geopolitical perspective with what we did in Venezuela, what's happening around Greenland right now and the sort of battle of words that's playing out in Davos right now.

410
00:36:44,492 --> 00:36:48,432
It seems like the rhetoric is getting hotter and hotter by the day.

411
00:36:48,852 --> 00:37:04,992
And to your point, a conflict being forced on the public to push the economy or the political will of the country in one direction or another seems very obvious at this point.

412
00:37:05,732 --> 00:37:06,272
It does.

413
00:37:06,452 --> 00:37:10,732
And I would argue what we're seeing in Minnesota is a civil war.

414
00:37:10,872 --> 00:37:12,692
It's just only one side's fighting right now.

415
00:37:12,692 --> 00:37:17,192
And if the other side starts to fight, that presents a real problem.

416
00:37:18,312 --> 00:37:19,792
And that's not good for any of us.

417
00:37:19,992 --> 00:37:23,092
The Civil War is the worst possible outcome.

418
00:37:24,112 --> 00:37:28,312
So I'm hopeful that somehow they step in.

419
00:37:28,452 --> 00:37:35,052
But again, when you look at the sort of the landscape that we're in right now, it's hard to be optimistic.

420
00:37:35,252 --> 00:37:36,012
I'll tell you that much.

421
00:37:36,252 --> 00:37:36,872
What's up, Freaks?

422
00:37:36,972 --> 00:37:38,432
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423
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424
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thing. It's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve,

429
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which you can put a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys at the house too.

430
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There's been a lot of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks,

431
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It's a Bitcoin company. They're running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury.

432
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433
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434
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It has free shipping as well. So go check it out. There are cracks in the foundations of your money.

435
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Governments around the world are managing record debt the same way they always have,

436
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by debasing their currencies. And the effects are already showing up across markets.

437
00:38:38,152 --> 00:38:42,792
In his report, The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why the shift is reshaping portfolios,

438
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why gold tends to act first, and why Bitcoin often follows as the implications become clearer.

439
00:38:47,972 --> 00:38:53,232
On January 28th, James joins Unchained Live for The Age of Debasement, a presentation and Q&A

440
00:38:53,232 --> 00:38:56,992
expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long-term investors.

441
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If the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing, this event helps put the pieces together.

442
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Register now and get early access to the report at unchained.com slash tftc.

443
00:39:05,932 --> 00:39:08,372
That's unchained.com slash tftc.

444
00:39:08,692 --> 00:39:11,212
And so what do you think happens for Bitcoin from here?

445
00:39:11,372 --> 00:39:14,732
Like I said, we're below $90,000 right now.

446
00:39:14,972 --> 00:39:21,532
We believe it's this barometer of global liquidity, which seems obviously stressed at the moment.

447
00:39:22,112 --> 00:39:28,812
Will Bitcoin basically signal to us, will it be a leading indicator for, okay, they're about to turn the money printer on?

448
00:39:29,552 --> 00:39:33,592
Or conversely, the liquidity crisis is about to be laid bare.

449
00:39:33,592 --> 00:39:43,072
Yeah, look, the Bitcoin story is a story of self-banking. So a banking crisis will be a boon

450
00:39:43,072 --> 00:39:51,712
to Bitcoin. That's clear to me. In any type of financial stress, Bitcoin is the off-ramp from

451
00:39:51,712 --> 00:39:57,972
their financial rails. And it's interesting, we sort of default to this position of a bailout.

452
00:39:57,972 --> 00:40:01,112
And the one thing no one's talking about is a bail-in.

453
00:40:01,732 --> 00:40:06,932
So I'm going to be a contrarian here and say I've got my eyes on the potential for bail-ins.

454
00:40:08,212 --> 00:40:17,492
Imagine that scenario where you wake up on a Monday morning and everything you have in the bank over a certain number, let's just say $100,000, is seized.

455
00:40:17,492 --> 00:40:33,592
I know that's sort of a low probability take, but I'm not sure that there's the ability to conduct another bailout without inflating away everything.

456
00:40:34,452 --> 00:40:39,652
So it's interesting to me that nobody is discussing the potential for a bail-in.

457
00:40:40,512 --> 00:40:45,632
And yeah, I've got my eyes keenly focused on the potential.

458
00:40:45,632 --> 00:40:50,832
But look, either way, in any type of banking crisis, Bitcoin's the only off-ramp.

459
00:40:50,952 --> 00:40:53,372
You're not going to be able to take delivery of gold or silver.

460
00:40:54,092 --> 00:40:58,892
So what are you going to buy to get out of their system as their system runs into trouble?

461
00:40:59,272 --> 00:41:00,292
You're going to buy Bitcoin.

462
00:41:00,412 --> 00:41:01,172
You're going to buy Bitcoin.

463
00:41:01,312 --> 00:41:04,372
You're going to yank it off the exchange in under an hour.

464
00:41:05,132 --> 00:41:06,172
That's your off-ramp.

465
00:41:06,732 --> 00:41:12,132
And the largest institutions in the world already have the money sitting in the Caymans outside

466
00:41:12,132 --> 00:41:20,712
the US where they could ship it over to Dubai or Singapore and get into Bitcoin in size,

467
00:41:20,892 --> 00:41:21,072
right?

468
00:41:21,152 --> 00:41:21,632
Like, where else?

469
00:41:21,852 --> 00:41:25,492
If you have a billion dollars, where in the world are you going to put it?

470
00:41:26,152 --> 00:41:27,992
I mean, 08-09, this didn't exist.

471
00:41:28,252 --> 00:41:30,672
You and I have discussed this previously, right?

472
00:41:30,672 --> 00:41:37,832
Bitcoin is this crazy off-ramp that enables you to get outside of their financial rails.

473
00:41:37,832 --> 00:41:53,372
Yeah, and it seems like with the price action in recent months, obviously 2025 and now into this year, obviously we had a little pump to start the year, but we're falling back towards where we ended the year.

474
00:41:53,372 --> 00:42:03,552
But it does seem like there's almost a lulling complacency entering the Bitcoin market where people are becoming more convinced like, oh, gold and silver were the horses we should have been on.

475
00:42:03,552 --> 00:42:08,712
and Bitcoin doesn't seem like it's stepping up to the plate

476
00:42:08,712 --> 00:42:13,592
in terms of acting as this neutral reserve asset for the digital age

477
00:42:13,592 --> 00:42:16,112
that people fall back to when things get chaotic.

478
00:42:16,472 --> 00:42:21,252
And I would posit to those people, just zoom out three years,

479
00:42:21,332 --> 00:42:22,272
look at where Bitcoin was.

480
00:42:22,272 --> 00:42:27,892
It did an 8x between November 22 and October of last year.

481
00:42:28,912 --> 00:42:31,952
And maybe it's cooling off a bit, but to your point,

482
00:42:32,052 --> 00:42:32,832
like where are you going to go?

483
00:42:32,832 --> 00:42:49,612
Are you going to buy, especially if you're a large institution, buy billions of dollars of gold, have it physically delivered and sit in a vault, which in recent years, gold sitting in vaults has been susceptible to confiscations, particularly Venezuela and Russia, I believe.

484
00:42:50,532 --> 00:42:54,252
And that's what I worry for particularly Bitcoin retail investors.

485
00:42:54,432 --> 00:43:00,032
They get lulled into the state of complacency where they convince themselves that the Bitcoin story is over.

486
00:43:00,032 --> 00:43:04,452
and then at some point you have something like a bail-in,

487
00:43:04,532 --> 00:43:08,632
which I'd be interested to get your thoughts on how they would justify a bail-in.

488
00:43:08,632 --> 00:43:14,772
But I think that would be a massively triggering event for flows into Bitcoin as well.

489
00:43:15,772 --> 00:43:16,932
Yeah, of course, right?

490
00:43:17,112 --> 00:43:21,312
But either way, right, bail-in, bail-out, you get to the same place.

491
00:43:22,172 --> 00:43:24,932
Arguably, the bail-in is tremendously deflationary.

492
00:43:25,032 --> 00:43:26,632
The bail-out is tremendously inflationary.

493
00:43:26,632 --> 00:43:34,372
But like I said earlier, both scenarios go to, you know, both roads go to the same place in the end.

494
00:43:35,092 --> 00:43:43,992
So, you know, the question is, would with 90% of our populace really kind of struggling right now to make ends meet,

495
00:43:44,252 --> 00:43:51,932
is, you know, is a bailout and massive money printing and another huge round of inflation, is it even tolerable?

496
00:43:52,432 --> 00:43:55,812
Add to that, we have the AI story on top of everything.

497
00:43:55,812 --> 00:43:58,772
You know, like we're going down a rough road, man.

498
00:43:59,152 --> 00:44:01,632
It just seems like a really, really rough road.

499
00:44:03,112 --> 00:44:06,392
The bail-in, remember, bail-in was done in Cyprus.

500
00:44:06,672 --> 00:44:08,432
The trial run has been completed.

501
00:44:09,212 --> 00:44:11,272
They know how to do it.

502
00:44:11,352 --> 00:44:12,252
They know how it works.

503
00:44:12,792 --> 00:44:16,192
We kind of go down the great taking route with David Rogers Webb.

504
00:44:17,252 --> 00:44:18,432
That's really interesting.

505
00:44:19,152 --> 00:44:22,492
But at some point here, look, they're going to have to recapitalize the system.

506
00:44:22,492 --> 00:44:26,012
Let's see where it goes

507
00:44:26,012 --> 00:44:26,752
You know

508
00:44:26,752 --> 00:44:29,032
Again, I would bet

509
00:44:29,032 --> 00:44:31,312
I'd bet everything on yield curve control

510
00:44:31,312 --> 00:44:33,432
If it wasn't for the midterms

511
00:44:33,432 --> 00:44:35,432
And the fact that the central banks

512
00:44:35,432 --> 00:44:37,892
So badly want to destroy Donald Trump

513
00:44:37,892 --> 00:44:39,492
So I think we can go into

514
00:44:39,492 --> 00:44:41,672
A really, really dark place here

515
00:44:41,672 --> 00:44:44,352
You know, leading up into the midterms

516
00:44:44,352 --> 00:44:46,872
How do you defend against

517
00:44:46,872 --> 00:44:49,332
The central banks

518
00:44:49,332 --> 00:44:51,412
And the globalists

519
00:44:51,412 --> 00:44:53,712
trying to do this? Is it a

520
00:44:53,712 --> 00:44:55,752
public messaging thing?

521
00:44:55,832 --> 00:44:57,832
Is there mechanical stuff you can do from a market

522
00:44:57,832 --> 00:44:59,852
structure basis to defend against

523
00:44:59,852 --> 00:45:00,292
this?

524
00:45:00,992 --> 00:45:03,892
How would you make it clear to

525
00:45:03,892 --> 00:45:05,752
people that, hey, this is

526
00:45:05,752 --> 00:45:07,912
an attempted takeout

527
00:45:07,912 --> 00:45:09,792
of Donald Trump because these people don't like him

528
00:45:09,792 --> 00:45:11,852
because they don't like that he's not on board

529
00:45:11,852 --> 00:45:13,772
with the globalist agenda?

530
00:45:15,652 --> 00:45:16,032
Yeah, I think

531
00:45:16,032 --> 00:45:17,832
the only way to defend against it is not

532
00:45:17,832 --> 00:45:18,452
to have debt.

533
00:45:18,452 --> 00:45:23,792
debt's what's going to be the undoing of so many.

534
00:45:24,292 --> 00:45:27,412
Leverage always kills you when you have a deleveraging.

535
00:45:28,012 --> 00:45:31,992
And it certainly would seem that we have a massive deleveraging coming our way.

536
00:45:32,712 --> 00:45:37,132
Now, in the case of an asset like silver, just to go back there again,

537
00:45:37,572 --> 00:45:39,232
the deleveraging can be to the upside.

538
00:45:39,792 --> 00:45:41,632
If all the leverage is on the short side,

539
00:45:42,492 --> 00:45:45,032
you better be careful because things can get crazy.

540
00:45:45,032 --> 00:45:47,972
in Bitcoin probably sees

541
00:45:47,972 --> 00:45:50,232
we go lower until there's a financial crisis

542
00:45:50,232 --> 00:45:52,472
the first sniff of a financial crisis

543
00:45:52,472 --> 00:45:53,312
Bitcoin rips

544
00:45:53,312 --> 00:45:55,512
yeah

545
00:45:55,512 --> 00:45:58,812
it is crazy times

546
00:45:58,812 --> 00:45:59,132
what

547
00:45:59,132 --> 00:46:02,812
what else are you looking out for

548
00:46:02,812 --> 00:46:05,212
in terms of

549
00:46:05,212 --> 00:46:06,952
things that would signal

550
00:46:06,952 --> 00:46:08,412
that we're getting closer to this

551
00:46:08,412 --> 00:46:11,012
deleveraging event where the body is

552
00:46:11,012 --> 00:46:13,192
rising to the surface of the water

553
00:46:13,192 --> 00:46:22,172
Look, I think we're really, really close. Again, I'm expecting at some point here soon,

554
00:46:22,592 --> 00:46:27,292
somebody to float up to the top. And if not, they're going to push these prices. They're

555
00:46:27,292 --> 00:46:31,652
going to push yields higher. They're going to push gold and silver higher until they get there.

556
00:46:32,632 --> 00:46:37,352
Somebody's going to float up to the surface. And it seems to me that this is what the Trump

557
00:46:37,352 --> 00:46:43,532
administration wants. So, you know, the U.S. has the world's largest printing press. They'll get to

558
00:46:43,532 --> 00:46:49,852
where they want to get to. Don't bet against the Treasury. And one thing that's been interesting,

559
00:46:50,012 --> 00:46:53,692
too, I'm not sure if you've been following this, but the delay of the Supreme Court's ruling on

560
00:46:53,692 --> 00:46:59,992
the tariffs, it feels like every time they push that back another week, the probability of them

561
00:46:59,992 --> 00:47:07,332
giving the green light to the tariffs regime goes up significantly. And I think that would be

562
00:47:07,332 --> 00:47:11,172
massively beneficial for Trump's economic policy.

563
00:47:13,072 --> 00:47:14,592
That's another thing that could be destabilizing

564
00:47:14,592 --> 00:47:16,812
if they have to unwind those as well.

565
00:47:17,112 --> 00:47:19,172
You're talking hundreds of billions of dollars

566
00:47:19,172 --> 00:47:21,712
that we need to figure out what to do, how to give it back.

567
00:47:24,392 --> 00:47:25,592
It's crazy times.

568
00:47:26,312 --> 00:47:29,672
Again, wherever you look, there's another grenade

569
00:47:29,672 --> 00:47:33,932
sitting underneath some leaves, and you just got to be careful.

570
00:47:34,092 --> 00:47:35,612
It's like landmines are everywhere,

571
00:47:35,612 --> 00:47:43,392
and I've never, in my career, I've never seen a setup like this. I just, I've never been more

572
00:47:43,392 --> 00:47:49,152
defensive in my opinions than I am right now because I honestly, I just, I don't know. You

573
00:47:49,152 --> 00:47:55,012
know, I try to go revert back to first principles and first principles tell me that the derivatives

574
00:47:55,012 --> 00:48:01,272
complexes that, again, it's not just silver. We could talk about treasuries, right? If silver

575
00:48:01,272 --> 00:48:07,592
breaks, what happens to treasury derivatives? If they break, the whole thing breaks, right? If you

576
00:48:07,592 --> 00:48:12,632
think the silver market's big, you should see what's going on in, you know, the basis trade

577
00:48:12,632 --> 00:48:19,652
out of the Caymans, which is trillions of dollars, right? We have estimated a quadrillion

578
00:48:19,652 --> 00:48:26,792
dollars in derivative exposure. These are not numbers that we can even quantify. We can't even

579
00:48:26,792 --> 00:48:32,932
understand them. And the entire system is held together by counterparty, right? Counterparties

580
00:48:32,932 --> 00:48:38,672
that trust each other. And if we see one large counterparty fail, the entire system crumbles.

581
00:48:40,752 --> 00:48:45,052
Yeah. And I mean, you mentioned earlier, like the Danes saying they're going to dump all their

582
00:48:45,052 --> 00:48:49,312
U.S. treasuries. Granted, they only have $100 million of U.S. treasuries and the balance sheet

583
00:48:49,312 --> 00:48:55,512
they've been dumping for years. But I mean, obviously, it's not going to have a material

584
00:48:55,512 --> 00:49:01,792
impact on the structural integrity of the treasury market as it stands today.

585
00:49:01,992 --> 00:49:05,992
But it is sort of a market signal.

586
00:49:06,212 --> 00:49:08,592
Like, hey, they could be the first to say that.

587
00:49:08,652 --> 00:49:08,992
Who knows?

588
00:49:09,052 --> 00:49:13,972
Maybe some bigger country out of Europe with a larger exposure says, hey, we're going to

589
00:49:13,972 --> 00:49:16,472
follow the Danes, maybe get China, Japan.

590
00:49:17,212 --> 00:49:20,412
Saying something similar to Japan would be we need to defend our own yield curve.

591
00:49:20,412 --> 00:49:21,792
So we sort of need to dump this.

592
00:49:22,012 --> 00:49:23,312
That's the big one, right?

593
00:49:23,372 --> 00:49:23,952
It's Japan.

594
00:49:24,932 --> 00:49:28,852
The Chinese, we know they'd love nothing more than to see the dollar collapse.

595
00:49:29,372 --> 00:49:31,952
The Japanese are really caught in a box themselves, right?

596
00:49:31,992 --> 00:49:35,052
They're going to have to, at some point here, step in and defend their yield curve.

597
00:49:35,712 --> 00:49:37,492
They have to defend their bond market.

598
00:49:39,072 --> 00:49:40,032
I just can't.

599
00:49:40,112 --> 00:49:47,032
Like, we know that these losses are in the system, whether it's pension funds, whether it's, you know, banks, Japanese banks.

600
00:49:48,612 --> 00:49:53,752
My guess is that there's structural insolvencies around the world right now.

601
00:49:53,952 --> 00:49:57,472
And we just haven't, no one's raised their hand yet, but it's going to happen.

602
00:49:58,472 --> 00:50:07,752
Yeah, I mean, as it pertains to Japan specifically, just looking at the charts, like left side of the bell curve, caveman chart analysis, it's like that.

603
00:50:07,832 --> 00:50:13,712
It feels like something has to happen soon because they're going parabolic straight up and to the right.

604
00:50:13,712 --> 00:50:16,892
Last night was a Six Sigma event, right?

605
00:50:17,572 --> 00:50:22,212
Every time there's a Six Sigma event, we learn about the bodies really soon after.

606
00:50:22,212 --> 00:50:29,132
So my guess is we're about to find out about who lost a metric shit ton of money.

607
00:50:29,792 --> 00:50:31,772
And we'll see where it goes from there.

608
00:50:32,192 --> 00:50:35,932
But that's going to be the spark on the Bitcoin story.

609
00:50:36,632 --> 00:50:42,552
When you have de facto bank runs, the ultimate bank run now exists.

610
00:50:42,892 --> 00:50:44,852
And it never did before, right?

611
00:50:44,892 --> 00:50:45,992
There was nowhere to hide.

612
00:50:46,072 --> 00:50:48,652
You could pull your money out of one bank, but you had to put it in another bank.

613
00:50:48,652 --> 00:50:54,752
Well, now there's a place you can go where you don't put your money into any bank, right?

614
00:50:54,812 --> 00:50:59,212
And that will cause a global bank run, the likes of which we've never seen before.

615
00:51:00,672 --> 00:51:08,312
Well, I know you're having this conversation with many individuals on a weekly basis in the Bitcoin Today spaces.

616
00:51:08,532 --> 00:51:11,872
What is the most common retort you get when you put this thesis out there?

617
00:51:11,872 --> 00:51:22,392
Look, I think there's just so much normalcy bias that's been built up over the last 20 years that people just can't see the obvious, right?

618
00:51:22,412 --> 00:51:25,412
You get away from first principles when you believe in normalcy.

619
00:51:26,292 --> 00:51:28,332
So, you know, things are fine today.

620
00:51:28,392 --> 00:51:29,212
They'll be fine tomorrow.

621
00:51:29,752 --> 00:51:34,652
But as people that have been around markets for decades, we know that's not true.

622
00:51:34,652 --> 00:51:45,472
And then as guys who study pattern recognition, we know that what we're staring at is not normal. It's not even something we can go back and point to in history.

623
00:51:45,472 --> 00:52:03,192
You know, I would have to go back to the Weimar Republic to even get close to some of the things we're witnessing. And look, it shouldn't be lost on anybody that it's not just the monetary effects. We have social, you know, social problems as well.

624
00:52:03,192 --> 00:52:19,968
And all of this was kind of mirrors what we saw in Leimler Germany in the 20s So that why I kind of lead towards the crack up boom thesis Just my pattern recognition goes back to just first principles of Austrian economics

625
00:52:21,228 --> 00:52:25,968
Yeah, I mean, on the social side of things, you look at how polarized things are.

626
00:52:26,068 --> 00:52:30,188
There's a large subset of the country, and I would include myself in that as like, okay,

627
00:52:30,188 --> 00:52:35,668
finally, as it pertains to immigration and fraud, we're getting back to law and order.

628
00:52:35,668 --> 00:52:38,788
If you're an illegal immigrant, it's time for you to go home.

629
00:52:38,788 --> 00:52:47,928
And if you're fraudulently taking money from Medicaid, Medicare programs, we're going to come find you and reprimand you appropriately.

630
00:52:47,928 --> 00:52:56,488
And then on the other side, you have something I'm sure you've seen at the Virginia, just what's happening on the ground within the state of Virginia.

631
00:52:56,488 --> 00:53:02,368
now that Democrats are in control of the governorship and the legislator there,

632
00:53:02,488 --> 00:53:06,228
the laws that they've passed since the beginning of the year,

633
00:53:06,548 --> 00:53:11,948
basically increase taxes on the rich, get rid of mandatory minimums,

634
00:53:12,008 --> 00:53:17,808
try to create more opacity around voting and make it easier to vote from home

635
00:53:17,808 --> 00:53:19,888
or do absentee ballots.

636
00:53:20,328 --> 00:53:24,128
And it's just going in completely opposite directions.

637
00:53:24,128 --> 00:53:28,948
were on the right, it's like, okay, we do want to bring back law and order, particularly

638
00:53:28,948 --> 00:53:37,728
as it pertains to immigration and federal government fraud, abusing programs like Medicaid,

639
00:53:37,868 --> 00:53:38,128
Medicare.

640
00:53:38,328 --> 00:53:44,088
And then on the left, it's like, no, we need to speed run this color revolution and make

641
00:53:44,088 --> 00:53:50,368
sure that we get, make it so that we can just do whatever we want by passing all these laws

642
00:53:50,368 --> 00:53:53,268
that lead to more anarcho-tyrny.

643
00:53:54,128 --> 00:54:09,848
Yeah, it feels that way, right? And the division just keeps getting wider and wider. And, you know, I'm at a loss as to what they expect to achieve with these policies, right? Like, where do they think this is heading?

644
00:54:09,848 --> 00:54:19,708
And you have to ask yourself, would any sane person want to go down the road that the far left is taking us down?

645
00:54:20,628 --> 00:54:27,168
And by the way, like these policies weren't even considered extreme 15 years ago.

646
00:54:27,168 --> 00:54:39,448
Like this concept of no borders, open borders, this would have 15 years ago, it was commonplace for people, you know, for ICE to function in our society.

647
00:54:39,848 --> 00:54:41,028
And today it's not.

648
00:54:41,968 --> 00:54:44,588
It's just, I can't explain it, Marty.

649
00:54:45,088 --> 00:54:49,888
We've completely departed from rational self-interest.

650
00:54:50,748 --> 00:54:57,348
And yeah, you got to ask yourself, like, do they think that money's printed on trees and

651
00:54:57,348 --> 00:54:59,488
that you can continue down this road forever?

652
00:54:59,708 --> 00:55:01,908
And on some level, I think they do.

653
00:55:02,048 --> 00:55:07,608
I think they just believe that you can print money at infinitum and that you won't have

654
00:55:07,608 --> 00:55:08,048
a problem.

655
00:55:08,048 --> 00:55:10,648
and I don't know

656
00:55:10,648 --> 00:55:12,688
is it foreign influence that's doing this

657
00:55:12,688 --> 00:55:14,248
are the Chinese behind this

658
00:55:14,248 --> 00:55:16,028
it's possible

659
00:55:16,028 --> 00:55:19,068
I would not be shocked

660
00:55:19,068 --> 00:55:20,388
to highlight the

661
00:55:20,388 --> 00:55:23,148
complete insanity and hypocrisy

662
00:55:23,148 --> 00:55:24,448
of modern day

663
00:55:24,448 --> 00:55:26,748
policy on immigration

664
00:55:26,748 --> 00:55:28,328
policy here in 2015

665
00:55:28,328 --> 00:55:30,288
I don't know

666
00:55:30,288 --> 00:55:32,568
I think

667
00:55:32,568 --> 00:55:33,948
that guy looks familiar

668
00:55:33,948 --> 00:55:36,028
yeah it's Tom Homan

669
00:55:36,028 --> 00:55:44,988
um okay it appears genuine uh i was gonna say that's real yeah that's real yeah yeah so i it

670
00:55:44,988 --> 00:55:48,788
looked a little ai so i just want to make sure but there's a real picture in 2015 barack obama

671
00:55:48,788 --> 00:55:53,648
awarded tom oman the presidential award for service for making america safer at ice 10 years later

672
00:55:53,648 --> 00:55:58,788
um liberals want him killed but it is i mean this yeah this mass psychosis that is

673
00:55:58,788 --> 00:56:04,228
taken over where something that was once common sense even on the left and i'm sure

674
00:56:04,228 --> 00:56:17,708
Or you've seen many others have seen the campaign videos of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama two decades ago, making it a point to say we're going to secure the border and make sure any legal immigrant is sent home.

675
00:56:17,708 --> 00:56:22,448
Now today, you're a right-wing Nazi if you think the same.

676
00:56:23,068 --> 00:56:35,448
And again, with all the fraud being laid bare, it's completely mind-boggling that anybody would think this is not a worthwhile and virtuous policy, especially if you're an American taxpayer.

677
00:56:35,688 --> 00:56:38,708
It's like, hey, they're literally just taking money from us.

678
00:56:39,708 --> 00:56:42,108
I don't see why there's big effort.

679
00:56:42,268 --> 00:56:46,228
And to your point, I would not be shocked if there's foreign influence.

680
00:56:46,228 --> 00:56:47,928
It does feel very color revolutionary.

681
00:56:48,288 --> 00:56:50,488
Look at Antifa, how they operate.

682
00:56:50,788 --> 00:57:00,248
And I think it's an extension of the weather underground movement from the 60s and the Marxist influences that have infiltrated the university system specifically.

683
00:57:01,708 --> 00:57:04,948
Yeah, then look, we can even go as far as to talk about H-1B visas.

684
00:57:05,908 --> 00:57:06,068
Right.

685
00:57:06,128 --> 00:57:09,228
So we have legal immigration problems.

686
00:57:10,548 --> 00:57:14,788
Corporations, you know, choosing H-1B over hiring young Americans.

687
00:57:14,788 --> 00:57:19,508
and then hiding behind, well, there's no one here to do the jobs.

688
00:57:19,708 --> 00:57:21,768
And even Trump said that, right?

689
00:57:21,848 --> 00:57:23,188
Like, are you crazy?

690
00:57:23,888 --> 00:57:26,608
Like, how did we do this before H-1B visas?

691
00:57:27,568 --> 00:57:31,228
And the whole story is just ludicrous at every level.

692
00:57:32,268 --> 00:57:34,848
Again, going back to pattern recognition,

693
00:57:34,848 --> 00:57:43,248
I can't find anything in my quiver that can parallel what we're witnessing today in society.

694
00:57:43,248 --> 00:57:49,808
it's the story is just almost too much right there's so many different fires going on all at

695
00:57:49,808 --> 00:57:54,988
once all over the place that it's really hard to put your finger on you know what do you tackle

696
00:57:54,988 --> 00:58:02,048
first well that's a question has been lingering in my mind i haven't articulated it or expressed

697
00:58:02,048 --> 00:58:06,808
it publicly yet but it's like i'm beginning to question like the system as a stand say the fiat

698
00:58:06,808 --> 00:58:11,008
in the sovereign debt system as it exists.

699
00:58:11,008 --> 00:58:16,268
Is late stage the point at which fraud is completely necessary

700
00:58:16,268 --> 00:58:19,328
because they need the ability to print money

701
00:58:19,328 --> 00:58:21,968
and just push money into the system by any means necessary,

702
00:58:22,108 --> 00:58:26,148
even if it's objectively and abhorrently fraudulent

703
00:58:26,148 --> 00:58:28,108
just to keep the charade alive?

704
00:58:29,668 --> 00:58:31,408
Well, and that's the point, right?

705
00:58:31,488 --> 00:58:35,868
The GDP lie that we're all told is that we need,

706
00:58:35,868 --> 00:58:38,788
You know, we need GDP and the GDP comes from fraud.

707
00:58:39,348 --> 00:58:43,268
Money stolen is spent much faster than money earned.

708
00:58:44,208 --> 00:58:52,168
So, you know, from the perspective of the government, if you cut out the fraud, we go into a deflationary spiral tomorrow.

709
00:58:52,928 --> 00:58:57,968
So, again, I don't know how you fix these problems without resetting the money.

710
00:58:58,528 --> 00:58:59,948
Right. The money is what's broken.

711
00:59:00,828 --> 00:59:04,968
It's the money that's causing all of these extraneous issues.

712
00:59:05,828 --> 00:59:10,348
And without fixing the money, we just keep going down this road until it leads to pure civil war.

713
00:59:11,128 --> 00:59:13,788
And I just, again, I don't see a way out.

714
00:59:15,348 --> 00:59:20,228
Yeah, and now that we're going further down this road, just thinking generationally, I'm sure you saw the stats came out.

715
00:59:20,228 --> 00:59:27,728
Like average new hire in 2025 was 42 years old, an increase of one and a half years from 2022.

716
00:59:27,728 --> 00:59:35,128
too. The median home buyer is somewhere around 59, 60 years old. So young people, another

717
00:59:35,128 --> 00:59:40,328
stat I saw the other day and talked about on a video that we released this morning is

718
00:59:40,328 --> 00:59:48,908
since 2023, 85% of American citizens under 25 have essentially dropped out of the job

719
00:59:48,908 --> 00:59:53,828
market and are not looking for jobs because they don't think it's worthwhile, which is

720
00:59:53,828 --> 01:00:00,888
insane um and to your point like we're getting to a generational point too where the young people

721
01:00:00,888 --> 01:00:07,428
who are supposed to have all this opportunity and and be um in the prime of their lives and

722
01:00:07,428 --> 01:00:12,968
having the prime of their lives manifest in financial stability and hopefully family formation

723
01:00:12,968 --> 01:00:18,768
and home buying is just simply not materializing and i mean this is something that is true throughout

724
01:00:18,768 --> 01:00:26,488
history when you have a completely dejected cohort of young predominantly or young male

725
01:00:26,488 --> 01:00:30,528
generations, they are going to react in one way.

726
01:00:30,568 --> 01:00:32,128
And it's usually not a good reaction.

727
01:00:32,128 --> 01:00:38,568
And so again, going back to my point, like a fraud is completely necessary just to sustain

728
01:00:38,568 --> 01:00:38,988
the system.

729
01:00:39,088 --> 01:00:42,628
I think that's just like a philosophical and social question.

730
01:00:42,708 --> 01:00:47,868
We have to all step back and ask ourselves at what cost are we trying to just prop up

731
01:00:47,868 --> 01:00:48,368
the system?

732
01:00:48,768 --> 01:01:00,768
Yeah, look, the measure of a society should be how well 30-year-olds are doing and how often they're getting married and are they having three kids and are they buying a home.

733
01:01:01,168 --> 01:01:13,408
That would be success for our society, not GDP, you know, through wars and forever wars and military budgets and theft and fraud and everything else that's built into the system.

734
01:01:13,968 --> 01:01:20,928
So if we really look at, you know, are 30-year-olds getting married, having three kids, and buying a home, the answer is no.

735
01:01:21,348 --> 01:01:34,988
And that should be the ultimate metric of are we a successful society, not, you know, what is our GDP, you know, what are all the CPI and all the CPI, I should call it, and everything else, right?

736
01:01:34,988 --> 01:01:37,628
It's all – the whole thing has become a fraud.

737
01:01:37,628 --> 01:01:44,708
And the only thing that's going to fix it is getting back to hard money, is breaking the back of this dollar enterprise.

738
01:01:45,748 --> 01:01:48,108
I just don't see another way to get there.

739
01:01:48,228 --> 01:01:53,648
And I guess the good news is that we're probably getting there sooner than most people expect.

740
01:01:54,108 --> 01:01:56,348
And, yeah, it's going to be really, really hard.

741
01:01:56,648 --> 01:02:00,288
If we hyperinflate the dollar, it's going to be brutal.

742
01:02:00,288 --> 01:02:06,548
But out of the ashes of that, we'll be born a new system based on real money.

743
01:02:06,548 --> 01:02:10,668
And people will earn a good living and kids will be happy again.

744
01:02:10,788 --> 01:02:16,268
And yeah, the boomer class is going to get smoked, but that's the way it's going to play out.

745
01:02:16,348 --> 01:02:17,568
It's pretty obvious to me.

746
01:02:18,588 --> 01:02:18,748
Yeah.

747
01:02:19,808 --> 01:02:34,388
It's interesting how the Trump administration has its blind spots here too because of the whole $200 billion mortgage bond buyback using the proceeds of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or the profits from them to try to force down interest rates.

748
01:02:34,388 --> 01:02:38,308
and positioning it as this bailout, or not bailout,

749
01:02:38,388 --> 01:02:43,868
positioning it as a way to bring down housing prices for younger generations.

750
01:02:44,008 --> 01:02:45,908
Like, no, it's going to have the complete opposite effect.

751
01:02:45,968 --> 01:02:47,568
You're going to bring down mortgage rates,

752
01:02:47,848 --> 01:02:50,948
which is just going to push up the price of housing.

753
01:02:50,948 --> 01:02:55,868
And it's essentially another bailout for the boomer generation.

754
01:02:56,388 --> 01:02:58,548
But then only a week, two weeks later,

755
01:02:58,868 --> 01:03:03,008
after announcing that $200 billion bond-buying program,

756
01:03:03,008 --> 01:03:08,628
we have the 10-year and 30-year blowing out to the upside towards 5%,

757
01:03:08,628 --> 01:03:12,708
which would prove, I don't know if they started buying these bonds yet,

758
01:03:12,748 --> 01:03:17,408
but it certainly didn't have the effect that he would have liked it to have,

759
01:03:17,508 --> 01:03:21,108
even if it was just a headline two weeks out.

760
01:03:22,968 --> 01:03:26,048
Yeah, it's pretty clear that our leaders aren't on top of things

761
01:03:26,048 --> 01:03:27,568
the way many think they are.

762
01:03:27,928 --> 01:03:29,748
I'm no fan of Scott Besson.

763
01:03:29,748 --> 01:03:36,128
I think that they are looking at the situation from the wrong lens.

764
01:03:36,808 --> 01:03:44,548
They should be focused on restoring free markets and getting out of the fraudulent game.

765
01:03:44,608 --> 01:03:45,168
But they're not.

766
01:03:45,428 --> 01:03:50,448
They're just trying to continue to push on a string, and eventually that string is going to break.

767
01:03:51,528 --> 01:03:52,768
Why do you think that is?

768
01:03:52,768 --> 01:04:03,428
Do you think they don't recognize it or do you think they understand the gravity of what would happen if you ripped out all the fraud?

769
01:04:05,688 --> 01:04:09,628
Well, I'll tell you, I think Trump's focused on legacy more than anything else.

770
01:04:10,328 --> 01:04:14,148
And he doesn't want to preside over economic collapse.

771
01:04:14,788 --> 01:04:17,268
But we need economic collapse at this point.

772
01:04:17,608 --> 01:04:19,308
That's the only way you're going to fix the system.

773
01:04:19,308 --> 01:04:23,008
So, you know, it's interesting.

774
01:04:23,388 --> 01:04:32,168
Again, I think it comes back to midterms and the entire four-year cycle of the way the United States works, right?

775
01:04:32,668 --> 01:04:41,328
It's clear to me that a benevolent dictator is a far better form of government than what we have with a broken republic.

776
01:04:42,468 --> 01:04:44,088
Because at least you get things done.

777
01:04:44,168 --> 01:04:48,168
Here we can't get anything done, and then every two years we've got to reshuffle the deck.

778
01:04:48,948 --> 01:04:53,368
That being said, you know, we do have a constitution to fall back on.

779
01:04:53,608 --> 01:04:58,528
And if we get back to being a constitutional republic, it's right there in our constitution.

780
01:04:58,528 --> 01:04:59,688
We need to have hard money.

781
01:05:00,148 --> 01:05:05,108
So, you know, it was getting away from our constitution, which got us into this plight.

782
01:05:05,248 --> 01:05:08,388
But we're so far away now, I don't see the road back.

783
01:05:09,708 --> 01:05:12,148
Yeah, that's really disconcerting.

784
01:05:12,148 --> 01:05:27,988
I mean, this has become a very popular thought over the last year, particularly as some Trump voters became sort of a disillusioned by what he's actually done since he got in office for the second time versus what he campaigned on.

785
01:05:27,988 --> 01:05:36,088
And you have particularly young men calling for a Franco-like strong man to come in and make everything right.

786
01:05:36,228 --> 01:05:42,188
And a lot of people pointing to what Naeem Bukele has done in El Salvador and saying, why can't we have that?

787
01:05:43,308 --> 01:05:52,268
And then obviously you have the other side of the spectrum, which is we need to 10x the size of the government and get more control in the middle of everything.

788
01:05:52,748 --> 01:05:57,188
And it is a chaotic time to be alive, to say the very least.

789
01:05:57,188 --> 01:05:59,668
and a very hot start to 2026.

790
01:06:00,408 --> 01:06:04,528
Look, the Buckele story is the benevolent dictator side of things, right?

791
01:06:04,648 --> 01:06:06,008
That's what I'm referring to.

792
01:06:06,468 --> 01:06:11,528
But that requires suspending constitutional rights and throwing people in jail

793
01:06:11,528 --> 01:06:17,268
and a lot of people in jail, a lot, like building prisons and throwing people in,

794
01:06:17,368 --> 01:06:20,988
a lot of people in jail, including politicians, judges.

795
01:06:21,588 --> 01:06:24,668
And there's not the political will in the United States to do it.

796
01:06:24,668 --> 01:06:34,668
So I just, again, how do you, you know, people are calling for Don Lemon to be arrested for the issue in Minneapolis the other night.

797
01:06:34,888 --> 01:06:39,728
Do you really think, even if we arrest him, isn't a liberal judge just going to throw it out of court?

798
01:06:40,528 --> 01:06:47,108
Like, have we got to the point where we can't even enforce law because the system is so broken?

799
01:06:47,108 --> 01:06:49,228
Again, I just

800
01:06:49,228 --> 01:06:52,968
I don't see the path out of this

801
01:06:52,968 --> 01:06:55,488
Other than the collapse of the dollar

802
01:06:55,488 --> 01:06:58,668
You collapse the dollar, you collapse the system

803
01:06:58,668 --> 01:07:01,448
You can rebuild the system based on the constitution

804
01:07:01,448 --> 01:07:03,548
But we're so far away from that

805
01:07:03,548 --> 01:07:05,848
That I just don't see how we get there

806
01:07:05,848 --> 01:07:07,588
Yeah

807
01:07:07,588 --> 01:07:11,528
Stay frosty out there

808
01:07:11,528 --> 01:07:12,788
Stay away from debt

809
01:07:12,788 --> 01:07:15,468
Keep your Bitcoin in cold storage

810
01:07:15,468 --> 01:07:19,088
And I think that's the best advice we can give right now, right?

811
01:07:19,808 --> 01:07:20,708
I think so.

812
01:07:20,988 --> 01:07:24,988
I honestly think that's the answer right now is when you don't know what to do, do nothing.

813
01:07:26,768 --> 01:07:27,208
Yeah.

814
01:07:27,888 --> 01:07:30,908
Well, thank you for joining us.

815
01:07:31,248 --> 01:07:32,428
We'll have to do this again.

816
01:07:32,828 --> 01:07:34,528
We can't wait six months.

817
01:07:34,588 --> 01:07:38,688
We'll probably have to catch up in Q2 to get an update on all this.

818
01:07:38,688 --> 01:07:47,808
I think, as we described earlier, it seems like things are progressing rather quickly right now, particularly in financial markets and even in the geopolitical realm.

819
01:07:47,988 --> 01:07:52,028
So it could be a completely different landscape just a month from now.

820
01:07:53,428 --> 01:07:54,708
Yeah, I agree.

821
01:07:54,848 --> 01:07:56,888
I suspect things are going to move very quickly.

822
01:07:58,568 --> 01:07:58,788
Yeah.

823
01:07:59,088 --> 01:07:59,488
All right.

824
01:07:59,988 --> 01:08:02,368
Well, thank you for your time.

825
01:08:02,928 --> 01:08:03,568
Thanks, Marty.

826
01:08:03,668 --> 01:08:04,548
Thanks for having me.

827
01:08:04,548 --> 01:08:08,748
I wish we had a more upbeat space and more upbeat discussion,

828
01:08:08,748 --> 01:08:11,628
but look, we got to play the cards we're dealt.

829
01:08:11,748 --> 01:08:13,628
And right now we're dealt a very difficult hand.

830
01:08:13,988 --> 01:08:17,068
So play it close to the vest and keep yourself out of trouble.

831
01:08:17,748 --> 01:08:19,208
Yeah. I think it's great advice.

832
01:08:19,448 --> 01:08:23,308
No, I mean, sometimes you need a sober recognition of reality,

833
01:08:23,548 --> 01:08:27,268
which I think the last hour and five minutes certainly was that.

834
01:08:27,348 --> 01:08:30,168
So thank you for that. And again, we won't wait six months.

835
01:08:30,168 --> 01:08:34,128
We'll do it. We'll do it in Q2. We'll do a catch up.

836
01:08:34,548 --> 01:08:37,008
Sounds good, sir. Thank you so much for having me.

837
01:08:37,008 --> 01:08:39,008
Thank you. Peace and love, freaks.

838
01:08:39,008 --> 01:08:41,888
Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.

839
01:08:41,888 --> 01:08:45,948
If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode.

840
01:08:45,948 --> 01:08:50,308
If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.

841
01:08:50,308 --> 01:08:51,788
We're looking to get the word out there.

842
01:08:51,788 --> 01:08:56,688
Also, wherever you're listening, whether that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify,

843
01:08:56,688 --> 01:08:59,868
make sure you like and subscribe to the show.

844
01:08:59,868 --> 01:09:03,628
And if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms,

845
01:09:03,628 --> 01:09:09,608
that goes a long way. Last but not least, if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free,

846
01:09:09,788 --> 01:09:15,428
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847
01:09:16,208 --> 01:09:23,028
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848
01:09:23,968 --> 01:09:30,108
So please consider subscribing via Fountain as well. Thank you for your time. And until next time.

849
01:09:33,628 --> 01:10:03,608
Thank you.