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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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You talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

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All the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,

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Bitcoin wins.

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In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Mr. Mazingtious, are you ready to turn it on turbo?

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I am, my friend. Let's go deep.

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Always happy to be here with you, chatting base money and other things.

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Yeah, well, we're going to turn it on turbo during this conversation,

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but it seems like the U.S. government is going to turn it on turbo.

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We're going to outgrow the debt. It's happening.

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Are you let down?

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Were you enticed by the MAGA fever last fall

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and now feel fully let down to a situation

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that was perfectly predictable to most of us?

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Hand up.

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I did have some optimism.

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I mean, cautiously optimistic.

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I think I was, and I think publicly on the record,

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cautiously optimistic.

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It seemed, in retrospect, it seemed,

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good to be cautious because

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it didn't turn out too great. It gave

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somewhat of an effort. I don't know if it was an earnest effort

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with Doge. I think in the beginning, people were excited

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to see that a lot of the waste, fraud, and grift was being

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unearthed by the Department of Government Efficiency, but

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rather quickly, it turned for the worse.

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And I think as Lynn Alden's been saying for years and as we've been discussing for years, there's no stopping this train.

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Well, let me give you a little bit different perspective here from Eastern Europe, perhaps, as I do.

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We're not going to go too political.

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You know that war in Ukraine is always top of mind, but I'll start.

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But as has been the case with my monetary base research, my power curve research for over seven years, I know people don't like a gloating sort of picture, but we've been promised hyper Bitcoinization.

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We've been promised super exponential growth.

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I've been trying to ground people in the realities of the research that I have done.

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For about seven years, seven, eight years.

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And then we have situations like what happened in Ukraine.

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Very much a free country.

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Who's has basically slaves trying to liberate it.

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You just look at a town in Eastern Ukraine, which has been liberated by Russia and it's complete rubble.

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right now I'm on the border of the European Union,

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former Soviet Union,

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and it is super dicey still.

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Europe does have to step up.

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I will give Trump credit for lighting a fire under Europe's ass.

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But, you know,

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everybody that's been supporting a strong traditional free world,

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uh, IE with, you know, national defense, both in the U S's case or in Europe's case,

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we're working together. Uh, I notice with not happy, uh, I'm not happy to gloat about this,

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but if you look at the Trump rhetoric from the campaign trail about the Ukraine war saying,

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I will end this war in 24 hours, said it multiple times. I will end this war in 24 hours.

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he said in the early days he said i believe i have the power to end this war he also said

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zelensky who everybody in the bitcoin maga camp loves to hate is a dictator

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saying nothing about the 25-year dictator of latimer putin

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he said zelensky started the war in ukraine this is trump trying to bend his ass over for putin

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and uh create a great peaceful dialogue putin has done the exact same thing that all of us in

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eastern europe have been saying since the beginning for three years and this is not just a trump thing

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this goes back to the biden thing too you're happy traditional republicans had the door wide open to

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go back to what they do best, which is national defense. And this is not invade Iraq situation.

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This is defending the free world. And let's not forget how Russia invaded Ukraine under the Obama

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administration, invaded Ukraine again under the Biden administration. This was teed up perfectly

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for a normal Republican administration. But instead, you goofy Americans, and I'm sorry to

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say this, I know it's not you directly, Marty, but a lot of people that are in the MAGA Bitcoin

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FU camp to every centrist. All you had to do was be strong. You didn't even have to send troops to

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Ukraine. All you had to do was be strong, send patriots, send missiles. In fact, if they had

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gotten max weapons three years ago, the war could have been over in two fucking weeks.

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I've said it from the beginning. I'll continue to say it. And where are we after all this fucking

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bullshit? Where are we right now? Trump sat there yesterday for the third time reversing his moron

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defense secretary pete hegseth and this eldritch colby guy's decision the third time reversing

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their decisions about not defending ukraine because ukraine is getting pummeled now because

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they don't have the patriots oh it's tough to be right it's tough to be right i'm sorry to say this

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But there is a proper way to deal with asshole bully dictators.

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It's not to call the good side a dictator corrupt.

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It's to deal with the 25-year dictator in the autocratic communist country.

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All right, that's my soapbox.

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I've talked about this many times on our quarterly updates.

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And here's my latest.

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That seems like you were right.

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And it seems like Trump in the last week, I think I've seen the headlines.

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I will admit I have not had my finger on the pulse of social media and the geopolitical macroeconomic and the geopolitics.

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I've been following macro more.

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Take Twitter off your phone.

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It's even better.

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Yes.

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I did put it on for Bitcoin.

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BTC Prague.

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I put it back on and need to take it off again.

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It's like like a drug.

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Yeah.

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It seems like Trump is making about an about face.

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I think it was yesterday, the day before, he said he wants to send more missiles.

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But what's the point?

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What's the point?

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We're wasting time.

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We wasted time.

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All I'm saying is, look, this is a centrist, normal issue.

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It's way bigger.

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Like, we're talking defense, a free world versus a dictatorship.

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We don't have to even go into it.

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I just wanted to say this piece, just like the power curve, which we're going to talk about,

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just like base money which we're going to talk about just like rational data-driven uh centrist

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it can be free market theory but let's not go into looney tunes theory of something that's like

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not grounded in any reality it's like it's it's a lot of it is you know this sort of uh

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The hopium that's in the Bitcoin community is great at times, but you got to be grounded in reality, situational ground the data.

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Bitcoin's not going to a million dollars tomorrow.

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Enjoy it.

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It's a great asset to protect you from your wealth.

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and there is no salvation in a fucking 25 year former communist dictatorship vladimir putin

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fucking shithole country there's a death cult is an absolute death cult listen to people in eastern

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europe i'm on my soapbox marty i love it i'm sorry it's it's very it's very angry gloating i

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mean i i'm not happy about it we're back to where we were republicans i'm with everybody here if

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you're a tucker carlson fan who's done his own about face uh he was a big cheerleader of the

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iraq war i was never for the iraq war but if you're anti-irac war i don't know how you can

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be pro-putin war like tucker carlson is now just fucking moron all right that's it that's it for me

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they'll see how many hate hate mail comments you get yeah it'll be fine

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don't send the hate comments freaks it's all right i don't care i don't care you might care

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actually but i was telling you i i met uh yael what's the last name osaki uh osowski

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osowski great dude great dude no we had a conversation about this too it is and that's

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but I think my conversations with you over the last three and a half years,

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which is crazy to think it's going on this long.

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I told him,

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it's just like,

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yeah,

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like I don't,

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I'm not right there in Eastern Europe.

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So I do trust your,

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your perspective on this more than probably the mainstream media.

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I would,

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I'll,

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I'll buy a beer to any Bitcoiner that comes to the Baltic Honey Badger.

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One of the best OG Bitcoin conferences in August.

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I'll be there as I always am.

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I'll buy you a beer

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if you want to challenge our views

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we are not going back

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under the fucking shitty Russian

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tyranny

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not going to happen

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but it's going to be harder

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if the West

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I'd say particularly America

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Europe has to do more

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100% Europe has to do more

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Western Europe needs to get their head out of their ass

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as far as all the woke shit still

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but

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you know

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I would say we need America. We need a strong, we need a strong America to not look only inward.

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I'm specifically talking about defense. I'm not talking about, you know, all the other stuff that

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Musk was working on with those. There's plenty of legitimate debate there. I'm just talking about

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the real world of autocrats versus democracies.

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And democracy is not that bad of a word.

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And yes, Yael is a great person as far as he's got a great

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historical knowledge on liberal democracy.

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I think he's the deputy chair of the Consumer Choice Center.

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If you're curious, people, they do great research.

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He lives in Europe.

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Consumer Choice Center is actually headquartered in D.C., I believe.

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yeah man

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it's tough days

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it's not going to get any easier

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Bitcoin's a great hedge

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for all this stuff but

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we're not going to be at a million dollar Bitcoin tomorrow

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and all like moving to the Caribbean

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that's what Samson Mal told me though

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well he's got his agenda

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we all got our agendas

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the Omega Candle's coming

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and it might

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it might

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it might let's jump into that and for those curious about yael i'll actually be recording

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with him two days from now that'll be on next week if you're listening to it bring my bring

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my fervor for defending the free world to that conversation bring it yeah what is um

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bring this back to the monetary side of things and the other one of the many other disappointments

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of this Trump administration.

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Take the good with the bad.

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I mean, I'm giving.

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It's like...

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Is the strategic reserve

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happening, my friend?

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I don't know.

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I made some bets around that.

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I'm probably going to lose.

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Really? What were the bets?

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I mean, via executive order, it does technically

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exist right now, but

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is it enshrined into law? No.

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The priorities

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are all out of whack here.

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They wanted to focus on stable coins market structure before a Bitcoin strategic reserve, which I would argue is probably more pressing, more of a pressing need for the federal government.

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That is $37 trillion in debt and is explicitly telling the American public and the global public that they are going to turn the spending on turbo in an attempt to outgrow the debt.

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And that's the other thing I wanted to bring up.

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From an economic landscape here in the United States, now globally,

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I'd be interested to get your thoughts on the emergence and proliferation,

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acceleration of artificial intelligence and the effects that may or may not be having

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on the economy and the potential effects it could have in the future.

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where it seems like we have this,

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depending on who you ask, I'm pretty convinced it's happening.

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We have this emergence of this technology

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that will lead to economic productivity growth

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on the scale of the industrial and digital revolution,

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the internet revolution.

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And is that potential for increased productivity,

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abundance, and wealth enough

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to have people focus away from war

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and towards free trade and competition in markets.

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I don't know.

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I have all the thoughts I have all the thoughts What are your thoughts there Big meme right now Big theme I think that we find the paradigm shift and we grow into the next spot

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Not going to grow out of the debt,

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but that's actually not the main issue.

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We'll talk about it.

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So you know I've been doing this power curve work, right?

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And we'll talk about it.

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I think actually your show I showed it the first.

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uh although i i first tweeted about it in like 2018 and this giovanni uh fellow who's kind of

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wraps his name around that on twitter people might have seen him a bit cantankerous but uh

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he uh he quoted uh power he observed that bitcoin was following a power

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regression more than an exponential regression in september 2018 i did in december 2018

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he did it on reddit i did it on twitter i was uh following this uh trolo lo lo is an old

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og account on bitcoin talk he was visualizing bitcoin in a logarithmic regression which is

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actually like very fast super exponential growth at the beginning and then levels off but um

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the there's a book by the guy's name is jeffrey west it's called scale it's a very good book

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statistician uh looked at a lot of data he's talking about he wrote it about 10 years ago

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and you might remember marty at the time there was a lot of talk 10 years ago about the singularity

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ray kurzweil was talking about this right there's a lot of definitions of what that kind of

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means. But Jeffrey West talked about the singularity and he was looking at the growth,

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like long-term growth. We talk about growth trajectories. It's all that I do on my channel,

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actually. I make trends. I draw trend lines. I try to put things in perspective. I try to

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see where the growth is going, right? We can look at some charts, but

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the general idea is we probably are increasing the rate of exponential growth

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during certain key changes in our civilization, right? So we, before the industrial age,

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we were moving a bit slower before the printing press age, we were moving a bit slower than that,

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you know, before whatever it might've been agriculture, we were moving a little bit

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slower than that, the farther back you go. And when we've added these new levels of innovation,

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we're still on exponential growth, right? Which is just constant growth. So you think about

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population growth, 2% a year, although that's slowing down actually a little bit. When you get

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richer, generally that slows down. But economies grow 3% to 5% a year, stock market grows 7% to 9%

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a year. If you invest your dividends, it might be a little bit more reinvest your dividends.

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Bonds can grow five to 10% a year. Just rough. I'm just talking rough stuff, right?

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But the further back in time you go, those percentages were a little bit lower. So it's

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still constant for a time, but then we reach a new sort of epoch. We reach whatever it was,

247
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if it was the industrial revolution, if it was the digital revolution, you know,

248
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And the fiat revolution is a part of it too, right?

249
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It confuses the picture, right?

250
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Because we went off gold 50 years ago, 55 years ago.

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So we force ourselves with this new growth.

252
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We have better stuff.

253
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Clearly, some people have better stuff.

254
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There's a lot of cross currents.

255
00:18:27,175 --> 00:18:30,195
We have, as you know, and your listeners know, we have a lot of money printing, a lot of

256
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distortion, a lot of central banking issues.

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But generally, we're moving from a situation where we have constant growth here.

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and then you know 50 years ago because of fiat we might go here and then digital revolution we

259
00:18:42,455 --> 00:18:47,555
go a little bit here and now we have ai like you said we have bitcoin so we're we're slowly sort

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of increasing that that curve right over a period of like an undefined period it could be

261
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20 years could be 50 years could be 100 years it depends right but it seems like

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you look at the last couple hundred years from the industrial revolution it seems like those

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cycles are getting more compacted, right? Like when you and I were kids, I'm a little bit older

264
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than you, but I mean, I remember my dad in his first laptop in the nineties, big fat thing, slow,

265
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you know, 500 and whatever, you know, megabytes of memory, like very, just everybody knows the

266
00:19:25,435 --> 00:19:34,075
story. Now here we are, you know, 30 years later and we have pretty amazing large language model

267
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tools and all the rest. So time is compressing and the growth is going faster.

268
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What Jeffrey West talks about in his book is that when you start layering these things on,

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if we would just do it mathematically,

270
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we have to keep going. He uses the analogy of a treadmill. Like so 200 years ago,

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we're on this treadmill. But then as we improve, we move to another treadmill. It's a little bit

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faster, but we have to jump off that treadmill. And if people don't come with you, you're left

273
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behind. It's a good analogy, right? So you jump off, you go onto the other treadmill,

274
00:20:13,335 --> 00:20:16,515
older generations die, whatever it is. And you move and move and move.

275
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Theoretically, if we go on this super exponential growth, people jump onto a new treadmill every

276
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new generation. And that generation is getting more, you know, that time dilation is getting

277
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smaller and smaller, but between the times we need to jump onto the new treadmill.

278
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At some point, we're getting to a singularity. He calls it. It's not the Ray Kurzweil singularity,

279
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it's just a mathematical singularity where it's an impossibility to grow anymore.

280
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And from that point, it's a very interesting question. He kind of leaves it open in his book.

281
00:20:45,455 --> 00:20:49,515
He wrote this book 10 years ago. I don't know his latest thoughts on how that all

282
00:20:49,515 --> 00:20:57,095
is sort of going to evolve. But the basic, and Bitcoin was in its nascency 10 years ago,

283
00:20:57,095 --> 00:21:04,095
by the way. So I don't know if he has thoughts about how that goes, but my general thinking is

284
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we have a few more treadmills to jump to, but we're probably very close to jumping to another

285
00:21:16,315 --> 00:21:25,035
treadmill, whether that is moving on to a Bitcoin standard, which again, as I just talked about at

286
00:21:25,035 --> 00:21:29,995
stop of the show. I don't think it happens all at once. I think it'll be something gradually,

287
00:21:30,135 --> 00:21:34,535
like either central banks or treasuries start reserving Bitcoin, certain economies start using

288
00:21:34,535 --> 00:21:39,775
Bitcoin. I think that gold will also play a part of it. Don't forget, there's $4 trillion in

289
00:21:39,775 --> 00:21:46,635
central banks right now, today, because of the gold appreciation. There's only $50 billion worth

290
00:21:46,635 --> 00:21:53,795
of Bitcoin in governments. So $4 trillion versus $50 billion. We got some time. Everybody's excited,

291
00:21:53,795 --> 00:22:01,375
but we got we got some time for this stuff to play out but i do think uh just like we had a switch

292
00:22:01,375 --> 00:22:10,675
50 years ago going from gold to fiat i think and thankfully we have bitcoin i think everybody's

293
00:22:10,675 --> 00:22:17,255
seeing that that's just not gonna last so the next epoch probably we'll have some gold as a part of

294
00:22:17,255 --> 00:22:23,155
it probably we'll have some bitcoin as a part of it but i think i think that still can continue for

295
00:22:23,155 --> 00:22:30,975
a while uh how long again i've said this on the first show that i talked to you about uh you know

296
00:22:30,975 --> 00:22:36,755
if you were a gold bug in the 80s you would have thought you had just won in the game of life when

297
00:22:36,755 --> 00:22:43,015
gold went from 35 an ounce to 850 an ounce uh for two seconds in 1980 and then obviously when there's

298
00:22:43,015 --> 00:22:46,835
a 20 year bear market i'm not predicting that for bitcoin i don't think anybody is and we have the

299
00:22:46,835 --> 00:22:54,295
power curve as well which is showing that that's not happening but uh basically i'll stop talking

300
00:22:54,295 --> 00:23:01,135
here but the point is i do i do think this stuff can go on a lot longer than we think but yes i

301
00:23:01,135 --> 00:23:04,935
would agree with your general sentiment and with a lot of this sort of sentiment that's going around

302
00:23:04,935 --> 00:23:08,855
and i kind of i would put it in people should read scale by jeffrey west because basically

303
00:23:08,855 --> 00:23:13,155
i think we're going to jump to another treadmill it's going to be faster it's going to be more

304
00:23:13,155 --> 00:23:18,235
complicated you know you got to take advantage of ai kids are growing up way different even than

305
00:23:18,235 --> 00:23:22,195
you and i grew up you know i mean chat gpt is going to be part of their lives it's just gonna

306
00:23:22,195 --> 00:23:30,555
be very it's gonna be very different but uh i i don't i don't and i also think gold and bitcoin

307
00:23:30,555 --> 00:23:36,855
would be a part of the monetary system but i don't think it's gonna be like uh i don't know

308
00:23:36,855 --> 00:23:42,815
like some supernova change i think i think it'll just be it'll be an evolution and bitcoin will be

309
00:23:42,815 --> 00:23:44,335
a part of it. All right, so I'll stop talking.

310
00:23:45,175 --> 00:23:46,815
No, I like that. I got to read

311
00:23:46,815 --> 00:23:48,255
scale. Yeah.

312
00:23:48,695 --> 00:23:50,595
His mathematical singularity.

313
00:23:51,255 --> 00:23:52,375
Like on any other side of that.

314
00:23:52,855 --> 00:23:54,595
I mean, he leaves it open, but what is

315
00:23:54,595 --> 00:23:56,895
are you left to assume? Do we get abundance

316
00:23:56,895 --> 00:23:58,855
or do we reach

317
00:23:58,855 --> 00:24:00,835
Fermi's paradox, great filter

318
00:24:00,835 --> 00:24:02,955
and fail to get through and something happens?

319
00:24:03,135 --> 00:24:05,035
Is that the juxtaposition

320
00:24:05,035 --> 00:24:06,355
he's sort of getting at?

321
00:24:06,815 --> 00:24:08,875
Yeah, it's a paradigm shift. I mean, he

322
00:24:08,875 --> 00:24:10,835
definitely says it's going to be some paradigm

323
00:24:10,835 --> 00:24:19,755
shift uh he doesn't go as far as ray kurzweil's you know humans into silicon sort of idea but

324
00:24:19,755 --> 00:24:22,375
but that's the idea yeah i mean i think

325
00:24:22,375 --> 00:24:29,515
you know and you get these weird cross currents right like elon musk was saying we should have a

326
00:24:29,515 --> 00:24:34,455
pause on ai it's so dangerous and then two months later he starts crock like what the fuck are these

327
00:24:34,455 --> 00:24:40,275
people talking about i mean they're just like you know they're not even providing leadership we we

328
00:24:40,275 --> 00:24:45,675
know that sam altman wants the regulation he wants his world coin you know if you're a regulated ai

329
00:24:45,675 --> 00:24:54,035
company you are just like uh sbf wanted the regulation for his shitty ftx company he wanted

330
00:24:54,035 --> 00:25:01,315
to define how crypto was going to be regulated and of course he's a fraud as well i'm not saying

331
00:25:01,315 --> 00:25:06,715
altman is a fraud but he looks like a evil supervillain uh and he's got his world coin

332
00:25:06,715 --> 00:25:13,095
so yeah there's there's gonna be pitfalls everywhere uh government is as usual as we

333
00:25:13,095 --> 00:25:18,235
know is going to be part of the problem not part of the solution the thing is they have the guns

334
00:25:18,235 --> 00:25:25,875
though they have the guns it's difficult uh i still think you know back to my soapbox at the

335
00:25:25,875 --> 00:25:34,275
beginning of the show about ukraine that there's still value and salvation in the west than in a

336
00:25:34,275 --> 00:25:39,235
place like Russia. China's going to be scary, though. I mean, they're going to go for Taiwan.

337
00:25:39,415 --> 00:25:43,195
What are we going to do? I don't know. It's all this is coming.

338
00:25:44,895 --> 00:25:50,515
I mean, to that point about there's still salvation in the West. I don't know about you.

339
00:25:50,515 --> 00:25:59,135
Obviously, you're not physically here in the United States, but there is this energy in the

340
00:25:59,135 --> 00:26:00,795
are particularly driven by

341
00:26:00,795 --> 00:26:02,815
the emergence of AI

342
00:26:02,815 --> 00:26:04,355
and I think more and more people

343
00:26:04,355 --> 00:26:06,815
beginning to grok Bitcoin

344
00:26:06,815 --> 00:26:07,875
pun intended

345
00:26:07,875 --> 00:26:10,915
I don't know

346
00:26:10,915 --> 00:26:13,235
it feels like the American spirit is like the fire

347
00:26:13,235 --> 00:26:15,275
in the belly of the

348
00:26:15,275 --> 00:26:16,115
archetypal

349
00:26:16,115 --> 00:26:19,395
American is getting stronger

350
00:26:19,395 --> 00:26:21,195
like the idea that you can go out there

351
00:26:21,195 --> 00:26:22,215
and build something and

352
00:26:22,215 --> 00:26:24,175
just go do things

353
00:26:24,175 --> 00:26:26,795
yeah don't need the government you don't need

354
00:26:26,795 --> 00:26:27,715
yeah

355
00:26:27,715 --> 00:26:34,235
what do you think about the american party i think it's retarded um

356
00:26:34,235 --> 00:26:42,795
and what are you gonna i mean uh don't put on my geopolitical analyst

357
00:26:42,795 --> 00:26:50,675
or political american politics analyst hat too often but i think if you're just looking

358
00:26:50,675 --> 00:26:52,975
out of the world in any other

359
00:26:52,975 --> 00:26:56,935
free democracy that has

360
00:26:56,935 --> 00:26:57,735
multiple

361
00:26:57,735 --> 00:26:59,335
like a

362
00:26:59,335 --> 00:27:03,215
it's weird because I've always said like we need to get rid of the

363
00:27:03,215 --> 00:27:04,415
the

364
00:27:04,415 --> 00:27:06,875
sort of two party system here

365
00:27:06,875 --> 00:27:08,815
in the United States but I think the way

366
00:27:08,815 --> 00:27:10,895
the American party is coming to you're just going to split

367
00:27:10,895 --> 00:27:12,995
the conservative side of the aisle

368
00:27:12,995 --> 00:27:14,855
and just hand everything to the

369
00:27:14,855 --> 00:27:16,615
socialist which would be a disaster

370
00:27:16,615 --> 00:27:17,555
yeah

371
00:27:17,555 --> 00:27:19,875
yeah

372
00:27:19,875 --> 00:27:23,575
so I don't think they're gonna

373
00:27:23,575 --> 00:27:25,275
I don't think the American party is gonna

374
00:27:25,275 --> 00:27:27,615
entice any of the

375
00:27:27,615 --> 00:27:29,015
democratic socialists

376
00:27:29,015 --> 00:27:30,995
come over and vote for them so

377
00:27:30,995 --> 00:27:33,615
I think you're just handing everything

378
00:27:33,615 --> 00:27:35,375
to the Zoran

379
00:27:35,375 --> 00:27:36,915
Mamadonis of the world

380
00:27:36,915 --> 00:27:38,175
yeah

381
00:27:38,175 --> 00:27:43,815
states rights focus on states rights

382
00:27:43,815 --> 00:27:47,515
I agree

383
00:27:47,515 --> 00:27:48,655
I agree

384
00:27:48,655 --> 00:27:52,975
yeah

385
00:27:52,975 --> 00:27:53,795
I think

386
00:27:53,795 --> 00:27:57,055
I tweeted this out I read a newsletter

387
00:27:57,055 --> 00:27:58,175
about it two weeks ago too

388
00:27:58,175 --> 00:27:59,975
where like Elon

389
00:27:59,975 --> 00:28:02,995
I understand and who knows if it's like

390
00:28:02,995 --> 00:28:04,915
K-Fob or whatever it's political

391
00:28:04,915 --> 00:28:06,915
theater which I

392
00:28:06,915 --> 00:28:08,275
certainly would put

393
00:28:08,275 --> 00:28:10,875
a material probability on this being

394
00:28:10,875 --> 00:28:12,715
the case that it's just some sort of

395
00:28:12,715 --> 00:28:14,595
distraction tactic and

396
00:28:14,595 --> 00:28:17,035
there could be some coordination behind the scenes

397
00:28:17,035 --> 00:28:26,955
but if we're being generous and assuming earnest intention by Elon,

398
00:28:27,155 --> 00:28:27,435
it's like,

399
00:28:27,495 --> 00:28:27,755
come on,

400
00:28:27,795 --> 00:28:27,955
dude,

401
00:28:28,015 --> 00:28:31,295
how have you not recognized that you're not going to solve this problem by

402
00:28:31,295 --> 00:28:32,615
playing the political game.

403
00:28:32,715 --> 00:28:34,255
You have to work outside the system,

404
00:28:34,255 --> 00:28:36,135
embrace technologies like Bitcoin,

405
00:28:37,215 --> 00:28:38,255
open source software,

406
00:28:39,475 --> 00:28:44,475
and sort of build and route around the government that you have clearly

407
00:28:44,475 --> 00:28:45,295
identified as,

408
00:28:45,315 --> 00:28:46,515
as being extremely wasteful.

409
00:28:47,035 --> 00:28:47,715
Yep.

410
00:28:53,895 --> 00:29:13,575
I just want to remind listeners that, you know, living in Europe with different priorities, right, I guess, than certain Bitcoin MAGA types or whichever type you are.

411
00:29:13,575 --> 00:29:15,555
Free thinker types.

412
00:29:18,695 --> 00:29:22,515
It's funny to look at the.

413
00:29:26,115 --> 00:29:38,530
The foreign policy of the United States From the lens of these guys basically because none of them have any idea what the fuck they talking

414
00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:38,790
about.

415
00:29:38,910 --> 00:29:39,210
I don't know.

416
00:29:39,290 --> 00:29:41,510
I'm sorry to say it like this,

417
00:29:41,570 --> 00:29:43,010
but you know,

418
00:29:43,350 --> 00:29:44,650
there was a grok,

419
00:29:44,790 --> 00:29:47,290
a hilarious grok question.

420
00:29:47,770 --> 00:29:48,590
It was like,

421
00:29:48,590 --> 00:29:49,710
show us the,

422
00:29:49,710 --> 00:29:55,270
the biggest Russian disinformation accounts on X.

423
00:29:55,710 --> 00:30:03,190
twitter as i like to call it and uh number one was elon number two was tucker

424
00:30:03,190 --> 00:30:14,030
and this is grok uh and then it's got like mtg uh it's got tim pool it's got

425
00:30:14,030 --> 00:30:25,230
jackson hinkle just these you know it's got jordan peterson even and uh a lot of a lot of

426
00:30:25,230 --> 00:30:28,850
characters all on the right except for this jackson hinkle who morphs into whatever he wants

427
00:30:28,850 --> 00:30:46,110
to be this wacko but um you know it there's i i i uh i completely agree with you on everything

428
00:30:46,110 --> 00:30:52,090
like domestic and what you're talking about with uh with working outside the system there's still

429
00:30:52,090 --> 00:30:56,190
the question and i've brought this up on your show before right which i think is difficult and

430
00:30:56,190 --> 00:31:02,490
like it definitely needs adults in the room i would be fine if there was a change but i don't

431
00:31:02,490 --> 00:31:07,090
know exactly how it's changed but it's a lot of where my libertarian theory breaks down

432
00:31:07,090 --> 00:31:17,030
it's basically handling the situation of uh you know the nukes better and i've asked you you as

433
00:31:17,030 --> 00:31:22,750
well like if texas succeeded what would be their nuclear policy you know would they would they take

434
00:31:22,750 --> 00:31:29,090
the nukes from some of the silos in wyoming idaho would they have a thought about that

435
00:31:29,090 --> 00:31:34,590
you know there are just some practical problems about defense and issues and this is stuff that

436
00:31:34,590 --> 00:31:41,730
like nobody's going to get around and yet all of these wackos have no fucking clue about the threat

437
00:31:41,730 --> 00:31:43,810
that exists from

438
00:31:43,810 --> 00:31:45,230
Russia.

439
00:31:45,650 --> 00:31:47,670
It's really, it's unbelievable to me.

440
00:31:47,830 --> 00:31:50,150
So anyway, it's the last time I'm going to bring up

441
00:31:50,150 --> 00:31:51,710
Russia. It's a lot of cognitive dissonance

442
00:31:51,710 --> 00:31:53,290
that I see there.

443
00:31:54,210 --> 00:31:55,970
I mean, I said this a couple weeks ago

444
00:31:55,970 --> 00:31:57,490
during an episode

445
00:31:57,490 --> 00:31:58,730
with who?

446
00:32:01,130 --> 00:32:02,270
I think Tom Luongo.

447
00:32:06,130 --> 00:32:07,610
We need to adopt

448
00:32:07,610 --> 00:32:08,470
Elaine Au's

449
00:32:08,470 --> 00:32:10,910
denuclearization.

450
00:32:11,730 --> 00:32:23,170
protocol. Turn the, uh, turn the kinetic nuke weapons into nuclear power, improve that you're

451
00:32:23,170 --> 00:32:29,530
denuclearizing by plugging in. We can, uh, we can look at the hash rate, go up and have a certain

452
00:32:29,530 --> 00:32:35,590
degree of certainty that people are decommissioning their, their nuclear weapons. And that would be

453
00:32:35,590 --> 00:32:42,750
amazing if bitcoin fixed that then i think it would be absolutely uh be fantastic one more reason

454
00:32:42,750 --> 00:32:48,250
to get on the bitcoin train yeah speaking of the bitcoin train what the hell's been going on

455
00:32:48,250 --> 00:32:54,850
before we get to the bitcoin train let's look at this chart you have up here basic money

456
00:32:54,850 --> 00:33:07,310
basic money it's been it's been hovering it's been trending down it has so i first published it

457
00:33:07,310 --> 00:33:17,050
seven years ago uh this is about this time in uh june july august 2018 20 trillion dollars

458
00:33:17,050 --> 00:33:22,310
this is the core for people that are new to this this is the core central bank money

459
00:33:22,310 --> 00:33:27,830
of the world. This is the balance sheet of the central bank. It's the main liability item. It's

460
00:33:27,830 --> 00:33:32,010
called the monetary base. It includes notes and coins, all the physical cash in the world.

461
00:33:32,570 --> 00:33:37,770
Also what they call bank reserves or bank cash. Basically the bank's account with the central bank.

462
00:33:37,770 --> 00:33:41,830
That's called base money as well. That's everything is pyramided on top of that,

463
00:33:41,970 --> 00:33:46,910
essentially. And we can bracket the word pyramid because I know it triggers a lot of people, but

464
00:33:46,910 --> 00:33:53,230
again uh you just gotta get to talk about reality here and assets and liabilities but

465
00:33:53,230 --> 00:33:59,930
anyway uh bumped up to 30 trillion to remind people topped out at 30 trillion in december 2021

466
00:33:59,930 --> 00:34:08,150
30 and a half trillion yes as you said this is like the the graphical representation the money

467
00:34:08,150 --> 00:34:13,910
supply representation of rising interest rates so because of all the covet madness and stimulus

468
00:34:13,910 --> 00:34:19,050
they've had to raise interest rates which they started in 2022 2023

469
00:34:19,050 --> 00:34:28,010
as well currencies have lost value against the dollar this is a witkinstein's ruler thing it's

470
00:34:28,010 --> 00:34:33,270
hard to exactly graph all that uh precisely you're looking at here with the lower amounts

471
00:34:33,270 --> 00:34:40,130
you're looking at yes some less money supply or flat money supply more like flat actually

472
00:34:40,130 --> 00:34:43,590
but a lot of dollar devaluation, which is interesting.

473
00:34:43,870 --> 00:34:47,290
So the dollar still remains the best looking horse in the glue factory.

474
00:34:49,610 --> 00:34:51,910
And yeah, so now it's at 26.2 trillion.

475
00:34:53,810 --> 00:34:58,450
But I very much believe, and I'll pull up another chart here in a second.

476
00:34:58,610 --> 00:34:59,430
Let me get it pulled up.

477
00:34:59,430 --> 00:35:06,330
I very much believe that this figure cannot stay this way for long.

478
00:35:06,730 --> 00:35:09,590
Trump is desperate for a new Fed chair.

479
00:35:09,590 --> 00:35:11,270
He's desperate for lower interest rates.

480
00:35:11,350 --> 00:35:12,610
He's desperate for money printing.

481
00:35:13,690 --> 00:35:15,870
The US doesn't fully run the world.

482
00:35:16,010 --> 00:35:17,010
I take that point.

483
00:35:17,570 --> 00:35:20,530
But obviously, it's an important signal, whatever the Fed will do.

484
00:35:21,550 --> 00:35:23,150
And I'll show you this chart.

485
00:35:23,230 --> 00:35:24,090
This is the same chart.

486
00:35:25,090 --> 00:35:33,670
But this is now just doing a trend line over the life of the modern central banking period

487
00:35:33,670 --> 00:35:34,730
since the end of the gold standard.

488
00:35:34,730 --> 00:35:43,830
the slope of this trend is about 10 and a half percent 10 and a half percent

489
00:35:43,830 --> 00:35:51,430
uh this is in dollar terms you can make the case that it's actually higher because in native terms

490
00:35:51,430 --> 00:35:56,810
i throw out this figure it's closer to 13 or 1 a month that's in native terms but again they lose

491
00:35:56,810 --> 00:36:00,970
value if you look at it from the lens of the dollar all the other currencies generally lose

492
00:36:00,970 --> 00:36:07,510
value so take it down about 10 and a half percent but if you look here clearly we're way under trend

493
00:36:07,510 --> 00:36:14,370
this is a beautiful 99 r squared exponential trend no one's going to tell me that fiat money

494
00:36:14,370 --> 00:36:18,230
doesn't grow exponentially and if you put the two and a half percentile we're even under that

495
00:36:18,230 --> 00:36:24,090
as of march 2025 which is my last update this is actually our q1 update marty we haven't talked in

496
00:36:24,090 --> 00:36:31,750
a bit i gotta do q2 already uh right now but we'll we'll uh we'll we'll uh we'll get there

497
00:36:31,750 --> 00:36:38,610
after are you coming to honey badger by the way uh due to um some some family events i will not

498
00:36:38,610 --> 00:36:44,410
be there you will not okay no problem uh well like i said my invitation stands to anyone who wants

499
00:36:44,410 --> 00:36:51,790
to debate geopolitics with me and the shithole nation that is russia but anyway i will uh i will

500
00:36:51,790 --> 00:36:59,530
say that uh there's there's very few activities that are more gratifying than drinking beers with

501
00:36:59,530 --> 00:37:08,250
matthew is anxious and regalapia thanks buddy uh we'll uh we'll wait for you next year so anyway

502
00:37:08,250 --> 00:37:12,370
as you can see here it's it can't go on forever i don't know exactly you don't even need to look

503
00:37:12,370 --> 00:37:16,890
at interest rates you don't need to look at dot plots but we are way under all the central banks

504
00:37:16,890 --> 00:37:24,490
know how to do is print money we're way under uh at 26.2 trillion the trend the the two and a half

505
00:37:24,490 --> 00:37:30,190
percentile is 27 close to 28 trillion the trend itself is 35 trillion based on what they've been

506
00:37:30,190 --> 00:37:38,210
doing over 55 years so it's coming it's going to be gas on the fire uh go long money printing

507
00:37:38,210 --> 00:37:46,030
yeah there's nothing really to worry about there um let's talk about bitcoin though

508
00:37:46,030 --> 00:37:50,310
price so um

509
00:37:50,310 --> 00:37:54,810
one of the things

510
00:37:54,810 --> 00:38:00,010
i've shown you this curve right a lot right the power curve yes

511
00:38:00,010 --> 00:38:06,330
uh just for people that haven't heard of this before heard of

512
00:38:06,330 --> 00:38:10,170
my work if if you look at the chart that we just looked at

513
00:38:10,170 --> 00:38:15,370
uh here you see it's a trend line this is 55 year growth of the money supply

514
00:38:15,370 --> 00:38:21,190
the main money supply that's comparable to with Bitcoin. It's not M1, M2, M3. We can talk about

515
00:38:21,190 --> 00:38:26,070
that. I have that here, by the way. M3 money, which is what you should use if you want to go

516
00:38:26,070 --> 00:38:32,170
broad money is about $114 trillion worldwide. And this is only the top five currencies. I don't

517
00:38:32,170 --> 00:38:39,270
actually have the remaining, the rest like I do for base money. So base money is 26 trillion.

518
00:38:39,270 --> 00:38:45,570
M1 money, sorry, M3 money is $115 trillion. Anyway, that's deposit money. That's your

519
00:38:45,570 --> 00:38:52,170
exchange account. That's your Coinbase account cracking different stuff. We can bracket that

520
00:38:52,170 --> 00:39:01,550
again. But it's important for people to understand exponential, in my opinion,

521
00:39:01,850 --> 00:39:06,110
primarily because of compound interest, just the way that compound interest is calculated in the

522
00:39:06,110 --> 00:39:10,730
banking system is how everything grows. So back to our discussion about scale,

523
00:39:11,810 --> 00:39:17,690
everything grows exponentially. Whether we eventually increase the rate of growth,

524
00:39:17,750 --> 00:39:21,870
they get to that super exponential is still kind of up for debate, but I think it's probably true.

525
00:39:22,430 --> 00:39:25,750
But nonetheless, everything grows exponential. It's a straight line on log scale.

526
00:39:26,930 --> 00:39:30,770
If you look at Bitcoin and a chart of Bitcoin and you run a trend line through it,

527
00:39:30,770 --> 00:39:37,310
far and away, I'll take all these bands off, just to make it easier. Far and away,

528
00:39:38,350 --> 00:39:43,050
the best fitting curve is what you call power curve. All right. So you can notice this is

529
00:39:43,050 --> 00:39:47,250
log scale as well. It doesn't matter the log, it doesn't matter the orders of magnitude.

530
00:39:48,610 --> 00:39:55,190
It's not a straight line on log scale. So what's happening with Bitcoin, the phenomenon of Bitcoin

531
00:39:55,190 --> 00:40:02,370
is something different. Like I said, I've been to the exponential, super exponential growth,

532
00:40:02,570 --> 00:40:07,870
hyper Bitcoinization, Bitcoin maxis chagrin. I have been following this for seven years

533
00:40:07,870 --> 00:40:17,250
and I've been correct for seven years. It's not on an exponential curve. This is a 96% R squared.

534
00:40:17,830 --> 00:40:23,110
This is better than your stock to flow mean. I actually published the power curve before

535
00:40:23,110 --> 00:40:24,850
the stock to flow mean

536
00:40:24,850 --> 00:40:27,450
but my budget remains

537
00:40:27,450 --> 00:40:29,430
zero dollars in marketing which I'm proud of

538
00:40:29,430 --> 00:40:31,550
don't worry if you haven't heard

539
00:40:31,550 --> 00:40:32,910
about the power curve it's no problem

540
00:40:32,910 --> 00:40:35,810
we'll get there

541
00:40:35,810 --> 00:40:36,870
and

542
00:40:36,870 --> 00:40:38,790
correct me if I'm wrong but

543
00:40:38,790 --> 00:40:40,770
when you

544
00:40:40,770 --> 00:40:43,250
observe something

545
00:40:43,250 --> 00:40:45,550
that's following a power trend it's typically

546
00:40:45,550 --> 00:40:47,070
networks right

547
00:40:47,070 --> 00:40:48,630
network adoption

548
00:40:48,630 --> 00:40:51,430
it is a

549
00:40:51,430 --> 00:40:57,610
it is a it is a feature if you look at it in a distribution a scaling distribution

550
00:40:57,610 --> 00:41:07,270
like bitcoin you have uh one one feature of a network is you have uh many small nodes

551
00:41:07,270 --> 00:41:11,530
with few connections and you have few small nodes with large connections

552
00:41:11,530 --> 00:41:16,330
and that's a feature of whatever even if it's a public company like amazon or the internet itself

553
00:41:16,330 --> 00:41:20,110
client server and stuff that if you draw a line through that that's a power curve

554
00:41:20,110 --> 00:41:27,190
so that would be a straight line on log log scale unfortunately with my fancy charting

555
00:41:27,190 --> 00:41:35,290
analysis i can't do a log log but if i would put the dates and it's important to say here

556
00:41:35,290 --> 00:41:41,230
the the dates are not a function of this regression the function is days so there's actually a function

557
00:41:41,230 --> 00:41:45,850
here it's a power function we don't have to get into the math it's not a big deal but there is

558
00:41:45,850 --> 00:41:51,650
days behind this. So right now the function is counting out. We're about 6,000 days from January

559
00:41:51,650 --> 00:42:00,450
3rd, 6,000 days from the Genesis block. And just brass tacks, what a power curve describes

560
00:42:00,450 --> 00:42:10,210
is proportional growth. So unlike with money or stocks or bonds, this is constant growth,

561
00:42:10,210 --> 00:42:13,430
right? Everybody thinks this way, right? Like your stockbroker,

562
00:42:13,430 --> 00:42:19,990
talking heads on CNBC. They're all talking about, are you going to get 15% growth this year? What's

563
00:42:19,990 --> 00:42:25,510
your hurdle rate? 8% growth. They're talking about constant continuous growth year upon year

564
00:42:25,510 --> 00:42:31,650
upon year. And the basic rule for that rule of 72, if you take 72 divided by the return,

565
00:42:31,910 --> 00:42:35,730
remove the percent sign, you'll get the time to double. All right. So 72 divided by 10,

566
00:42:35,730 --> 00:42:41,070
it works best with 10%. In fact, so if it's a 10% growth rate, 72, remove the percent sign.

567
00:42:41,070 --> 00:42:48,830
72 divided by 10 equals 7.2 that is your doubling time so if you have 10 growth of an asset doesn't

568
00:42:48,830 --> 00:42:55,430
matter the asset you will double in 7.2 years this is what this is what um this is what compound

569
00:42:55,430 --> 00:42:59,730
growth is this is what exponential growth is for fiat money as i just said it's about 10 percent

570
00:42:59,730 --> 00:43:06,210
uh is the growth rate so it's actually exactly what i just said seven point every 7.2 years

571
00:43:06,210 --> 00:43:07,870
this money supply doubles

572
00:43:07,870 --> 00:43:09,570
we can check that

573
00:43:09,570 --> 00:43:11,950
we can go back

574
00:43:11,950 --> 00:43:12,930
here it's 2025

575
00:43:12,930 --> 00:43:16,570
the trend, you got to go on the trend now

576
00:43:16,570 --> 00:43:18,010
the trend is 35 trillion

577
00:43:18,010 --> 00:43:19,990
we go back to

578
00:43:19,990 --> 00:43:21,470
2018 or something

579
00:43:21,470 --> 00:43:23,050
and

580
00:43:23,050 --> 00:43:25,810
sorry

581
00:43:25,810 --> 00:43:26,990
2017

582
00:43:26,990 --> 00:43:30,090
17 and a half

583
00:43:30,090 --> 00:43:32,530
17 and a half trillion

584
00:43:32,530 --> 00:43:34,810
so roughly

585
00:43:34,810 --> 00:43:35,370
every 7

586
00:43:35,370 --> 00:43:40,910
seven years of this. It's not exact on this curve. It's like 10.2%, I think, actually,

587
00:43:41,010 --> 00:43:45,310
is the growth rate. Anyway, I keep getting on these side tangents. I'm sorry.

588
00:43:46,910 --> 00:43:51,790
This is exponential growth. Bitcoin does something different. What is it saying?

589
00:43:52,410 --> 00:43:57,270
Don't worry about the math. But what it's saying is, after observing this curve long enough,

590
00:43:58,970 --> 00:44:02,370
there's a percentage that you can get to, which is a constant percentage,

591
00:44:02,370 --> 00:44:07,330
but it's a proportional percentage. So the percentage is 12.7%. And what that means is

592
00:44:07,330 --> 00:44:22,005
for every increase in time that the Bitcoin network exists that is an additional 12 the network doubles That what the power curve of Bitcoin is showing us

593
00:44:22,125 --> 00:44:23,465
That's what has been observed.

594
00:44:24,125 --> 00:44:26,345
So we're 6,000 days in,

595
00:44:26,845 --> 00:44:28,265
12.5%.

596
00:44:28,265 --> 00:44:32,125
760 days or whatever.

597
00:44:32,125 --> 00:44:33,105
Two years from today,

598
00:44:33,325 --> 00:44:33,785
should be doubled.

599
00:44:33,785 --> 00:44:34,125
Two years.

600
00:44:34,825 --> 00:44:35,065
Yep.

601
00:44:35,945 --> 00:44:36,125
Yep.

602
00:44:36,865 --> 00:44:38,865
760 days is roughly,

603
00:44:38,865 --> 00:44:43,345
this is roughly the doubling time of bitcoin at the moment

604
00:44:43,345 --> 00:44:52,345
that is the brass tax number for bitcoin so that 12.7 will remain fixed but the days won't remain

605
00:44:52,345 --> 00:45:01,265
fixed so it's a it's a different type of a growth than exponential growth so having observed this

606
00:45:01,265 --> 00:45:08,745
like i said for seven years now playing around with the numbers a lot thinking about it uh you

607
00:45:08,745 --> 00:45:17,585
know, gone through huge scams, 80% drawdowns. And then we've gone up with, you know, ETF adoption

608
00:45:17,585 --> 00:45:25,985
and whatever. Trump mania, you know, that strategic Bitcoin reserve mania, even though that might not

609
00:45:25,985 --> 00:45:32,385
happen regardless. My thesis, and I think I talked about this a little bit more with you, is I think

610
00:45:32,385 --> 00:45:38,465
that the growth of Bitcoin, and I can, I'll show you this mathematically in a second. I think at

611
00:45:38,465 --> 00:45:43,665
the moment, we're still about 95% raw network adoption.

612
00:45:44,485 --> 00:45:48,225
Like it has nothing to do with the Fed, Trump, the money supply.

613
00:45:48,945 --> 00:45:54,165
95% is based on this unbelievable mathematical trend.

614
00:45:55,445 --> 00:46:02,545
And 5% has to do with the rest of the money supply, the debt, the world.

615
00:46:02,885 --> 00:46:04,425
We're way early.

616
00:46:04,625 --> 00:46:05,085
We're way early.

617
00:46:05,085 --> 00:46:08,245
I think eventually that will flip.

618
00:46:08,465 --> 00:46:10,185
And we'll get to where Bitcoin is.

619
00:46:10,445 --> 00:46:12,145
Obviously, we're on a sat standard, Bitcoin standard.

620
00:46:12,145 --> 00:46:32,365
But I think right now, in the growth of the Bitcoin network, 95% of the price movement of Bitcoin is based on the fundamentals of the power law and the power Bitcoin growth, which is completely different than exponential growth.

621
00:46:32,365 --> 00:46:43,765
this is uh this is the sober analysis that we bring you in in here for and in terms of where we

622
00:46:43,765 --> 00:46:51,965
are on this power trend line right now it looks like we're right on trend right on it yeah we've

623
00:46:51,965 --> 00:46:58,105
been right on it really since the etfs etfs bumped us up here around 65k it started last year

624
00:46:58,105 --> 00:47:05,545
we've gone back under you know a year ago now we've been back up we're literally right on trend

625
00:47:05,545 --> 00:47:15,425
right so this is uh i think i pulled in the model only at uh july 6th 109 000 we're recording on the

626
00:47:15,425 --> 00:47:21,425
9th uh for people that are curious but the um it doesn't matter i mean a couple days here a couple

627
00:47:21,425 --> 00:47:27,585
days there it's not gonna matter but um right on trend and then if you're curious about where we

628
00:47:27,585 --> 00:47:33,185
can go. So I do this sort of multiple analysis. Other people do it different ways. I'll just

629
00:47:33,185 --> 00:47:38,465
explain to it to you how I do it. This would be the extremes. This would be the all time extremes

630
00:47:38,465 --> 00:47:44,685
and it's based on a multiple. I used to do it another way, but this is actually better and

631
00:47:44,685 --> 00:47:53,725
more intuitive in my opinion. So Bitcoin has never been outside of these bands, right? And you can

632
00:47:53,725 --> 00:48:00,225
see that here right it hit the top here in 2011 and here in 2013 at the bottom here at the end of

633
00:48:00,225 --> 00:48:09,025
2011 it will never be outside of this bands based on the math and uh if you can visualize so here's

634
00:48:09,025 --> 00:48:15,145
the all-time trend the trend at the time was more inside that band you know what i mean it's much

635
00:48:15,145 --> 00:48:22,205
sharper faster but the cool thing about this again i've studied this a long time so i would encourage

636
00:48:22,205 --> 00:48:29,645
people to just take comfort in in what i've studied here uh notice from about the end of 2016

637
00:48:29,645 --> 00:48:37,025
you almost look like a beautiful mathematical curve that that projects out see that see how

638
00:48:37,025 --> 00:48:43,585
it's like even with the you know really from about here it's you know it's still adapting

639
00:48:43,585 --> 00:48:49,485
i'm still taking the multiples but it's it's damn near the same trend as when you would project out

640
00:48:49,485 --> 00:48:54,105
in the future so it's pretty cool it's pretty cool that's the first thing okay so this is this

641
00:48:54,105 --> 00:48:58,965
is the max it's never going to get here to these numbers again in my opinion uh but let's take the

642
00:48:58,965 --> 00:49:05,345
10th percentile on the 90th percentile and i'll take off the extremes all right so i'm taking off

643
00:49:05,345 --> 00:49:10,865
the extremes and now just the 10th and 90th here we also get some interesting stuff you know this

644
00:49:10,865 --> 00:49:17,265
would catch the what they termed the old crypto winter back in 2015 it would catch the almost

645
00:49:17,265 --> 00:49:27,845
caught the puking here after uh the end of the 2018 crash and then the ftx puking here it almost

646
00:49:27,845 --> 00:49:32,825
catches uh but if you just look at this band now we're we're a little bit high all right now i'll

647
00:49:32,825 --> 00:49:39,885
put the trend itself back in all right the all-time trying the smooth trend but basically

648
00:49:39,885 --> 00:49:46,885
we're we're right on trend okay so now uh let's put the upper percentiles i don't have to want to

649
00:49:46,885 --> 00:49:50,565
or people and go through every little thing. I stream about this like almost every day now,

650
00:49:50,565 --> 00:49:54,965
by the way. So if anybody wants to check it out, it's morning European time. It's a 9am London

651
00:49:54,965 --> 00:49:59,505
time if people want to check it out. But I'm streaming about a lot of this most days. So

652
00:49:59,505 --> 00:50:06,265
the question that people, you know, Americans like to get to number one number usually. So I like to

653
00:50:06,265 --> 00:50:10,285
people can't really think of percentiles or what it means. But if you can think about the trend,

654
00:50:11,145 --> 00:50:16,385
think about where we usually go every four years, and then think about a multiple over

655
00:50:16,385 --> 00:50:21,105
are under that trend, that might give you a target of where we could go. So theoretically,

656
00:50:21,285 --> 00:50:27,005
the end of the four-year cycle is the end of this year. The trend line at the time is

657
00:50:27,005 --> 00:50:40,865
$125,000. $125,000 Bitcoin. The 90th percentile is 2x the trend. So that's very simply $250,000.

658
00:50:40,865 --> 00:50:54,165
Okay. All right. Let's look again now. I'm going to take off the 10th percentile. Let's look at when Bitcoin went over the 90th percentile. It was every single time, even if it was a little bit lower, as we can see in 2021.

659
00:50:54,165 --> 00:50:58,865
one. All right. Now let's zoom in on the 90th. Here's a different chart.

660
00:50:59,485 --> 00:51:05,325
I'm going to log left. This is just the top 90, the rainbow of top 90 days.

661
00:51:06,745 --> 00:51:15,185
And actually, let's just review. So again, the very peak, which we had in the early days,

662
00:51:15,245 --> 00:51:19,185
it's not going to happen again, like a 7.8x move over the multiple. That's not going to happen.

663
00:51:19,185 --> 00:51:22,745
and I think you can take off the 99th, 98th.

664
00:51:23,665 --> 00:51:25,965
Let's even take off the 97th.

665
00:51:26,625 --> 00:51:29,505
What that leaves us with is a multiple of 2x trend,

666
00:51:29,825 --> 00:51:31,285
2.8x trend.

667
00:51:31,425 --> 00:51:32,625
Let's just see how the rainbow looks.

668
00:51:33,025 --> 00:51:33,805
We hit it in 2011.

669
00:51:33,965 --> 00:51:35,365
We hit it in 2013 twice.

670
00:51:36,465 --> 00:51:41,425
We hit it in 2017 easily and harder,

671
00:51:41,645 --> 00:51:42,785
but we did hit it completely,

672
00:51:42,985 --> 00:51:44,345
all these rainbows in 2021.

673
00:51:44,765 --> 00:51:45,925
Not saying that's going to happen again,

674
00:51:46,005 --> 00:51:46,665
but very simply,

675
00:51:46,665 --> 00:51:51,665
So if you take these rainbows out to the end of 2025, the trend is 125K.

676
00:51:52,325 --> 00:51:54,065
2x that trend is 250K.

677
00:51:54,585 --> 00:51:59,425
Let's go up to the top end of that curve, which is nearly 3x the trend, 350K.

678
00:51:59,865 --> 00:52:01,945
So that would be my estimate for 2025.

679
00:52:02,825 --> 00:52:12,605
And probably because of the really large institutional entering of the market.

680
00:52:12,605 --> 00:52:17,945
Although, again, like I said, the real world, in my opinion, is very minimally correlated to this trend.

681
00:52:18,845 --> 00:52:22,645
I mean, the trend itself, the network adoption is the bigger 95% of the price action.

682
00:52:24,365 --> 00:52:31,545
It's possible we go a little bit into 2026, I think, based on how we're just chilling on this trend line right now.

683
00:52:31,805 --> 00:52:35,365
But as you know, as I know, I mean, you get that God candle.

684
00:52:35,665 --> 00:52:36,605
Everybody's waiting for it.

685
00:52:36,605 --> 00:52:45,285
You get super bullish, you know, fever, FOMO everywhere.

686
00:52:45,485 --> 00:52:48,385
It's totally possible by the fall we spike back up into this area.

687
00:52:48,465 --> 00:52:51,625
But yeah, this is generally my call, I would say, by the end of the year.

688
00:52:53,585 --> 00:52:54,665
125K should be the trend.

689
00:52:55,165 --> 00:52:56,565
I think it will be 2 to 3X.

690
00:52:56,665 --> 00:52:59,465
The trend is a very safe, normal target.

691
00:52:59,465 --> 00:53:04,465
And, you know, not financial advice, but people, you know, do what you want to do.

692
00:53:06,605 --> 00:53:08,725
I don't think hyper-Bitcoinization is coming at this point.

693
00:53:09,265 --> 00:53:10,905
I don't think the United States will collapse at this point.

694
00:53:11,025 --> 00:53:12,565
Russia is going to collapse with the United States.

695
00:53:13,245 --> 00:53:14,005
So keep focus.

696
00:53:15,905 --> 00:53:20,525
Take care of your family and make your own decision from that point.

697
00:53:21,585 --> 00:53:21,685
Yeah.

698
00:53:23,685 --> 00:53:28,365
And I think I feel comfortable asking this.

699
00:53:28,485 --> 00:53:30,625
I believe you'd be able to speak to this too.

700
00:53:30,625 --> 00:53:41,585
I think what people really need to realize is that as the market cap of Bitcoin grows, it becomes even harder to push the price up.

701
00:53:42,145 --> 00:53:42,965
Yeah, precisely.

702
00:53:43,125 --> 00:53:45,105
It becomes heavier, becomes a little bit heavier.

703
00:53:45,965 --> 00:53:46,125
Yeah.

704
00:53:47,385 --> 00:53:52,405
And what are your thoughts on this broader Bitcoin treasury trend in public markets?

705
00:53:53,145 --> 00:53:54,325
Is it sustainable?

706
00:53:55,825 --> 00:53:57,845
It's not sustainable, for sure.

707
00:53:57,845 --> 00:54:00,245
I think just by Bitcoin, in my opinion.

708
00:54:00,625 --> 00:54:08,805
but totally logical and the right move for the early companies that are trying this.

709
00:54:09,025 --> 00:54:10,705
Obviously, we've seen what's happened with MicroStrategy,

710
00:54:10,705 --> 00:54:12,345
seen what's happened with MetaPlanet.

711
00:54:14,345 --> 00:54:16,225
That's not going to be the result for everybody.

712
00:54:18,065 --> 00:54:19,945
Early bird gets the worm, so to speak.

713
00:54:20,185 --> 00:54:28,885
But as long as people aren't taking excessive leverage with this paper

714
00:54:28,885 --> 00:54:34,565
that they're creating on top of Bitcoin at crazy prices to buy more Bitcoin, I don't

715
00:54:34,565 --> 00:54:40,065
think necessarily it's going to be a huge problem, specifically for the large holders

716
00:54:40,065 --> 00:54:40,985
like MicroStrategy.

717
00:54:41,125 --> 00:54:44,845
As far as I can tell, their liquidation level is very, very low still.

718
00:54:46,585 --> 00:54:53,025
But that's not a phenomenon that I think will matter over the long term.

719
00:54:53,205 --> 00:54:56,885
But I will say, in other words, I do think that Bitcoin yield eventually collapses to

720
00:54:56,885 --> 00:54:57,065
one.

721
00:54:57,065 --> 00:55:02,605
but i do have some interesting thoughts on at least i think they're very interesting on

722
00:55:02,605 --> 00:55:09,805
how this could affect the growth of everything literally what we were just talking about

723
00:55:09,805 --> 00:55:16,865
because think about this think about this marty if everything grows exponentially

724
00:55:16,865 --> 00:55:23,805
this is verifiable this is due to the theory of interest and credit i mean an interest rate

725
00:55:23,805 --> 00:55:26,585
literally is a compound rate. It creates an exponential trend.

726
00:55:28,405 --> 00:55:32,785
Often, and this is what people in our space like to write about, this is an unsustainable trend.

727
00:55:33,005 --> 00:55:40,025
People take leverage. People make stupid decisions. Things collapse. This happens

728
00:55:40,025 --> 00:55:45,005
in the old days, in medieval times. It happens across empires. It happens with currencies.

729
00:55:47,025 --> 00:55:50,705
I'm not saying it's going to collapse tomorrow, by the way. I'm just putting an observation out

730
00:55:50,705 --> 00:55:57,225
there, right? Exponential trends have a very difficult time. Actually, back to the top of

731
00:55:57,225 --> 00:56:00,785
the show, what we just said, unless you increase that treadmill, you jump on a new treadmill,

732
00:56:01,325 --> 00:56:07,965
you increase the growth, you have a paradigm shift in a new technology, and you can keep ahead of the

733
00:56:07,965 --> 00:56:15,005
trend, or eventually, the curve, it becomes unsustainable. It collapses. Again, I'm not

734
00:56:15,005 --> 00:56:19,745
calling for... We can look at the US debt chart. I'm not calling for that tomorrow at all. And I'll

735
00:56:19,745 --> 00:56:26,765
show you exactly with numbers but think about that idea so we have the track like i'll just

736
00:56:26,765 --> 00:56:32,265
show you a chart here in a second we have the trad fi world that is running exponentially

737
00:56:32,265 --> 00:56:38,925
and then we have the bitcoin world which is running in power and then we have some trad

738
00:56:38,925 --> 00:56:45,085
fi companies like microstrategy like metaplanet uh you know many others

739
00:56:45,085 --> 00:56:55,505
what happens when the trad fi world starts to buy an asset that moves in power in the bitcoin world

740
00:56:55,505 --> 00:57:02,285
what will those stocks look like so this giovanni character uh from from italy who's done a lot with

741
00:57:02,285 --> 00:57:07,265
the power curve he's been talking the idea that it looks like the trend of micro strategy stock

742
00:57:07,265 --> 00:57:12,725
is starting to match that of bitcoin which makes sense obviously but that's a power curve

743
00:57:12,725 --> 00:57:20,445
if everybody has bitcoin and that's a part of everybody's balance sheet

744
00:57:20,445 --> 00:57:27,245
and bitcoin against this uh numeraire of our world today which is the dollar

745
00:57:27,245 --> 00:57:34,425
moves in power against bitcoin then presumably the trad fi world as well will start to move

746
00:57:34,425 --> 00:57:41,985
in power but this goes back to the old question about debt versus equity or interest rates or

747
00:57:41,985 --> 00:57:49,165
whatever. How do you price your cost of capital when you have this slowly asymptotically declining

748
00:57:49,165 --> 00:57:54,565
rate of growth every year with Bitcoin, which is very predictable? Money supply is very predictable.

749
00:57:55,345 --> 00:58:02,005
The power curve, as I've just shown you since 2016, is almost identical to the power curve if

750
00:58:02,005 --> 00:58:08,505
you add in nine more years of data. Unbelievable. Unbelievable from a statistical standpoint.

751
00:58:08,505 --> 00:58:15,865
what happens to contracts you know are you you're going to have a a loan where you pay a certain

752
00:58:15,865 --> 00:58:20,505
amount of interest this rate this year in sats and then the next year you pay a little bit less

753
00:58:20,505 --> 00:58:23,865
in interest and a little bit less a little bit less you know because once you have bitcoin

754
00:58:23,865 --> 00:58:30,025
generally everything looks cheaper from that lens but it doesn't look exponentially cheaper all the

755
00:58:30,025 --> 00:58:36,445
time the rate of growth does decline in bitcoin so it's a very it's starting a bit of philosophical

756
00:58:36,445 --> 00:58:40,445
question, but let me put a chart here to show you the...

757
00:58:40,445 --> 00:58:44,445
This is one of my ultimate theories here now.

758
00:58:44,445 --> 00:58:48,445
Alright, can you see this?

759
00:58:48,445 --> 00:58:52,445
Yeah, we had a conversation about this at the Philly John

760
00:58:52,445 --> 00:58:56,445
last month, thinking about this

761
00:58:56,445 --> 00:59:01,405
philosophically, like how do you reorient, I think, would

762
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:05,360
one person says that we have to reorient

763
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:06,960
around future value

764
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,060
and basing things off of future value

765
00:59:09,060 --> 00:59:10,760
versus present value

766
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:13,300
and sort of reorienting

767
00:59:13,300 --> 00:59:14,680
contracts, trying to

768
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:17,700
value

769
00:59:17,700 --> 00:59:19,300
Bitcoin in the

770
00:59:19,300 --> 00:59:20,980
present and what it would be in the future

771
00:59:20,980 --> 00:59:23,260
and base contracts off that.

772
00:59:25,340 --> 00:59:26,640
That's what I recall.

773
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:29,280
Yeah, yeah. It's the same

774
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:31,220
vein. I'm on the same wavelength right now

775
00:59:31,220 --> 00:59:33,480
So I'm going to try to show this graphically.

776
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:34,460
All right.

777
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:38,500
So here is, this is kind of my ultimate, ultimate theory at the moment.

778
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:40,520
I've added in this chart.

779
00:59:40,580 --> 00:59:44,660
I started from 2008, which is when Bitcoin, the December 31st, 2008 is when Bitcoin started.

780
00:59:45,660 --> 00:59:50,740
I'm taking all the base money in the world in fiat, which at the moment is 26 trillion.

781
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,820
I'm adding, which I don't have a chart of, but you just take my word for it.

782
00:59:54,860 --> 00:59:56,680
I'm adding available gold and available silver.

783
00:59:56,940 --> 00:59:57,680
Basically what I'm doing.

784
00:59:57,680 --> 00:59:59,140
So you add those three things together.

785
01:00:01,220 --> 01:00:07,840
Technically, you got to subtract the gold reserves, which I said are $4 trillion, because that's on the asset side of central balances.

786
01:00:08,060 --> 01:00:11,320
And there's now $50 billion of Bitcoin, dollars worth of Bitcoin.

787
01:00:12,260 --> 01:00:15,200
So subtract that out to not overlap.

788
01:00:16,100 --> 01:00:19,080
But that's still counted in available gold, so it's not overlapping.

789
01:00:19,300 --> 01:00:23,960
Bottom line, the value as of today is $43 trillion.

790
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:28,160
So that $26 trillion just grew to $43 because I included gold and silver.

791
01:00:28,500 --> 01:00:30,360
So this is what I'm calling TradFi money.

792
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:36,500
trad five based money old money new money it's the same exponential trend it's always exponential

793
01:00:36,500 --> 01:00:41,860
in the trad fight world uh this rate of growth is actually even slower surprisingly because the

794
01:00:41,860 --> 01:00:47,060
growth has been slower in the last 10 years so that's affected so we just went down from about

795
01:00:47,060 --> 01:00:52,500
10 or 10.2 whatever it is to about now it's seven and a half this is a seven and a half percent

796
01:00:52,500 --> 01:00:57,360
trend line so this now it's the opposite of what i just said rule 72 this will double every 10 years

797
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:06,380
i'll prove it to you just here uh december 2025 45 trillion it's 46 trillion december 2035

798
01:01:06,380 --> 01:01:16,100
92 trillion roughly right so it's a roughly a seven percent growth rate of this

799
01:01:16,100 --> 01:01:19,700
curve all right we got a hundred years we got a hundred years on this chart marty

800
01:01:19,700 --> 01:01:28,100
to not confuse the chart i'm just taking actual values moving right into the trend line

801
01:01:28,100 --> 01:01:34,880
now let's compare the trad fi base money growth with the bitcoin growth which like i said

802
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:39,120
whether it's price market cap address growth hash rate growth it's all power

803
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:45,920
so here's how a power curve looks the bitcoin much faster much faster notice how

804
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:48,020
that green line becomes nearly

805
01:01:48,020 --> 01:01:50,160
flat line because Bitcoin's

806
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:51,260
growing so fast from zero.

807
01:01:52,220 --> 01:01:52,400
All right.

808
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:55,980
And now

809
01:01:55,980 --> 01:01:57,240
from here we can put a

810
01:01:57,240 --> 01:01:59,960
dominance, Bitcoin dominance index.

811
01:02:00,060 --> 01:02:01,980
And I've done variations of this before, but I think

812
01:02:01,980 --> 01:02:04,220
this is probably the cleanest way to do it.

813
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:05,900
So here's a dominance curve.

814
01:02:07,940 --> 01:02:09,280
Zoom in from here.

815
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:14,040
This is graphically what I was

816
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:15,800
just telling you before. Remember how I told you that

817
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:22,140
I believe that 95% of Bitcoin's price action is due to the inherent nature of the growth itself,

818
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:27,600
the adoption itself. People all around the world figuring out how amazing Bitcoin is itself.

819
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:33,820
5% is due to TradFi nonsense. This is literally the dominance that we see.

820
01:02:34,540 --> 01:02:40,960
So if you see Bitcoin as a $2 trillion market cap, that's roughly 5% of this TradFi fiat money

821
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:46,980
market cap. And then there is this mythical 100 trillion number that gets thrown around by

822
01:02:46,980 --> 01:02:55,080
different people. I'm not going to name names. It happens to be that if we project out TradFi at 7%

823
01:02:55,080 --> 01:03:01,740
and Bitcoin at its growth rate, which is variable and it declines, we meet in the early 2040s.

824
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:06,560
And it's actually not 100 trillion, it's about 150 trillion, 155 trillion.

825
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:16,160
it's just a trend i'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but bear in mind dear listener

826
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:23,420
the bitcoin trend has been pretty amazingly consistent for 10 years now nine years so

827
01:03:23,420 --> 01:03:31,500
if these trends continue and if trad fi continues to grow at whatever it needs to grow whatever

828
01:03:31,500 --> 01:03:36,360
presidents and prime ministers want their central banks to print at and whatever people

829
01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:43,520
value of gold at and gold will be a part of this picture in my mind um because again central banks

830
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:52,180
have a four trillion dollars worth of gold in books then we get to about 100 in uh in early 2043

831
01:03:52,180 --> 01:03:58,040
so let me know if you have any questions just with this point so is that the target date for

832
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:05,520
bitcoin standard i think it'll happen before i think it'll happen before um bear in mind 100

833
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:12,240
percent actually is 50 50 so in trad five base money there is no bitcoin there it's literally

834
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:17,820
just gold silver and fiat money and then i have layered next to it bitcoin growth

835
01:04:17,820 --> 01:04:26,860
if if central banks and treasuries in particular be better if it was treasuries would be better for

836
01:04:26,860 --> 01:04:30,920
the world if it was treasuries not central banks but if treasuries started to hold bitcoin

837
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:35,160
this green line would come down faster because again i remove

838
01:04:35,160 --> 01:04:42,860
the uh asset backed portion of the money i remove any gold or silver in the central bank there's no

839
01:04:42,860 --> 01:04:47,120
silver but i remove the gold and i remove the bitcoin so this green line would come down faster

840
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:53,960
bitcoin would cross it faster the more uh treasuries reserve bitcoin that's that's an

841
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:58,780
unknown variable i'm only just taking current current current levels which are very low right now

842
01:04:58,780 --> 01:05:05,900
as well i think two more havings is where anybody around the world is going to need to

843
01:05:05,900 --> 01:05:12,020
see to understand how like amazing this thing just keeps churning along you know you can have

844
01:05:12,020 --> 01:05:19,200
that issuance the price continues to rise um whatever it's just a feeling it's not really

845
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:24,300
much more to say about that but two more havings from now right you know you're roughly around the

846
01:05:24,300 --> 01:05:29,020
2030, uh, 2032 area.

847
01:05:31,420 --> 01:05:35,600
And that would leave 10 more years to get there.

848
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:38,560
And I think it probably would start to happen at that point.

849
01:05:38,600 --> 01:05:42,440
I think, I think somewhere in the early 2030s, this is where you're at already $20 trillion

850
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,780
Bitcoin, many more contracts are going to be done in sets.

851
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:48,240
Uh, and we just start to get there.

852
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:56,120
and my mind immediately goes to obviously we're just talking about like the

853
01:05:56,120 --> 01:06:04,020
micro strategy and copycat sort of attack public capital markets to accumulate bitcoin but

854
01:06:04,020 --> 01:06:10,940
looking at this power trend and the fact that it's been so clean for almost a decade now

855
01:06:10,940 --> 01:06:18,180
putting on like my venture hat and my business owner hat if somebody owns a business here at

856
01:06:18,180 --> 01:06:28,200
tftc like being able to internalize this trend block out the noise like once you've internalized

857
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:33,660
it enables you to block out the day-to-day noise of this that and the other headline and intraday

858
01:06:33,660 --> 01:06:39,040
price movement affecting your your perception on bitcoin if you can internalize this power trend

859
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:43,320
and basically stick to like this is happening here's how bitcoin adoption is happening and

860
01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:48,840
what that does the price of a long time over the long term like if you're just building a business

861
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:58,100
that can provide a good or service that produces revenue and you produce that revenue

862
01:06:58,100 --> 01:07:02,940
the cost to produce that revenue is cheaper than the revenue we're bringing in so you're bringing

863
01:07:02,940 --> 01:07:06,280
in a profit and you're funneling that in the bitcoin you're thinking like warren buffett

864
01:07:06,280 --> 01:07:12,840
long-term cash flowing business value accretion like internalize this power trend and then go

865
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:16,400
build a business that provides goods and services at a profit,

866
01:07:16,560 --> 01:07:22,600
funnel it into Bitcoin and you'll wake up two decades from now with a very

867
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:23,440
valuable business.

868
01:07:24,280 --> 01:07:24,720
Yep.

869
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:26,120
A hundred percent agree.

870
01:07:26,540 --> 01:07:27,880
And that's what I'm seeing,

871
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:30,280
but there is a wrench here.

872
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:31,160
There is a,

873
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:32,460
there's always a wrench.

874
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:32,860
Yes.

875
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:34,240
This is,

876
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:35,340
this is the thought experiment.

877
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:35,580
It's,

878
01:07:35,660 --> 01:07:36,780
it's philosophical at this point.

879
01:07:36,820 --> 01:07:37,760
I fully admit it again.

880
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:39,440
I'm not saying that Bitcoin,

881
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:42,580
like remember our numerators still the dollar.

882
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:47,320
you know i know a lot of people think the united states is going to collapse

883
01:07:47,320 --> 01:07:54,960
whatever like you said it's better just build around it embrace the free world uh you got a

884
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:59,180
lot of shithole countries like russia that you know you need to understand are completely liberal

885
01:07:59,180 --> 01:08:04,560
no property rights sorry just got to go back to that the world is a big place still and there's

886
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:09,640
there are a lot of issues here so again hyper bitcoinization i'm sorry it's a i've been right

887
01:08:09,640 --> 01:08:15,260
about this now for seven years it's i see this continuing but here's the here's the interesting

888
01:08:15,260 --> 01:08:23,360
thing back to our discussion about um back to our discussion about exponential growth versus power

889
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:30,560
right so power is very sustainable growth as you can see just here right i mean it's uh

890
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:36,440
this is just a beautifully sustainable sustainable curve right it's it's you know as as the thing

891
01:08:36,440 --> 01:08:41,220
gets heavier, gets bigger, it grows a little bit slower. I'll graphically show this now in a

892
01:08:41,220 --> 01:08:45,880
trailing 12 month on the right hand axis. Okay. So it's here. Obviously it's super fast growth

893
01:08:45,880 --> 01:08:51,060
here. I'm going to zoom in thousands of percent. The network was growing here when we was literally

894
01:08:51,060 --> 01:08:57,360
rounding to $0 trillion. By 2012, we were about a thousand percent, under a thousand percent into

895
01:08:57,360 --> 01:09:06,220
the year 2013. Okay. That's the trend growth of the trend. Look at this curve now. All right.

896
01:09:06,440 --> 01:09:07,220
Where are we today?

897
01:09:08,580 --> 01:09:09,020
45%.

898
01:09:09,020 --> 01:09:10,580
It's exactly what I just said before.

899
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:16,200
If you were doubling every two years or we're doubling at a two-year rate right now, which

900
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:20,740
is 760 days, but the growth rate will decline.

901
01:09:21,260 --> 01:09:22,680
The doubling time will increase.

902
01:09:23,020 --> 01:09:25,700
So I need doubling time here as well, just to make it even clearer.

903
01:09:25,700 --> 01:09:33,060
But we're falling as we increase, and we increase still very rapidly in the dollar market cap

904
01:09:33,060 --> 01:09:33,520
of Bitcoin.

905
01:09:33,520 --> 01:09:37,840
all right by 2030 i'm looking at we're looking at 10 trillion dollar market cap

906
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:44,280
that's only quote only a 31 growth rate still an enormous growth rate for wall street and i predict

907
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:49,040
i predict it still will be an enormous growth rate for wall street but i will show you a trad

908
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:55,000
five stock in a second which which makes this a little bit interesting anyway 2040 when i think

909
01:09:55,000 --> 01:10:02,540
will cross we'll be at about a 20 rate still huge trailing 12 months but here's where it's a little

910
01:10:02,540 --> 01:10:10,740
bit weird is what happens when we get to the rate of trad fi and in my chart remember i'm

911
01:10:10,740 --> 01:10:16,760
representing trad fi is about a seven percent growth rate a year okay as we're talking about

912
01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:20,220
money just think basically this is saying you better at least get seven percent because the

913
01:10:20,220 --> 01:10:24,320
money supply is growing that much okay that's that's what it's just a basic way to understand

914
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:29,660
what i so understand this trad fi chart like if this green line grows to seven percent a year you

915
01:10:29,660 --> 01:10:30,500
you better at least get that.

916
01:10:31,020 --> 01:10:32,560
And obviously people want more with,

917
01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:32,940
with,

918
01:10:33,000 --> 01:10:33,360
you know,

919
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:45,720
various small businesses or whatever you you hope to get a higher rate of return So it looks like there no problem here but obviously you need just a basic understanding of geometry to understand that one of these lines is straight one is not straight

920
01:10:45,980 --> 01:10:50,540
So this will actually cross back down again in the future.

921
01:10:51,140 --> 01:10:52,460
So what does that mean?

922
01:10:53,500 --> 01:10:55,760
How do we play that into our model?

923
01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,740
Especially when, and I'm going to take off,

924
01:11:00,180 --> 01:11:01,900
I'm going to take off the,

925
01:11:02,020 --> 01:11:03,120
I'm just going to leave the growth rates

926
01:11:03,120 --> 01:11:03,980
and I got to zoom in.

927
01:11:05,100 --> 01:11:06,280
What happens when we get to here?

928
01:11:07,480 --> 01:11:07,640
Right.

929
01:11:07,760 --> 01:11:11,920
So now Bitcoin is coming down by the year 2086.

930
01:11:12,540 --> 01:11:13,900
You got to love my projections here.

931
01:11:14,060 --> 01:11:17,320
You know, I'm not saying I know exactly what's going to happen in the year 2086, but we get

932
01:11:17,320 --> 01:11:22,740
to the year 2091 and we hit 7.3%, which matches that old TradFi constant growth, exponential

933
01:11:22,740 --> 01:11:23,080
growth.

934
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:25,780
How does our dominance curve look like?

935
01:11:27,420 --> 01:11:29,520
This is actually where it crests.

936
01:11:29,620 --> 01:11:29,740
All right.

937
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:30,740
I'm going to blow the chart out.

938
01:11:31,480 --> 01:11:32,700
I actually need to hold on.

939
01:11:33,500 --> 01:11:34,560
This is the dominance curve now.

940
01:11:34,560 --> 01:11:34,880
Okay.

941
01:11:35,100 --> 01:11:39,780
So we get to 100% early 2040s.

942
01:11:40,920 --> 01:11:44,100
We get to 543% or something in 2090.

943
01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:48,420
But as that curve crossed mathematically, obviously, it's going to crest.

944
01:11:48,580 --> 01:11:49,500
It's going to go back down.

945
01:11:50,220 --> 01:11:52,240
So look, this is philosophical.

946
01:11:52,680 --> 01:11:53,420
I understand that.

947
01:11:53,760 --> 01:11:59,260
Don't at me saying I'm saying this, you know, 50 years from now that I was wrong, obviously.

948
01:11:59,260 --> 01:12:06,640
uh but one of two things could happen when we talk about these growth rates all right in my opinion

949
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:14,240
it's either the trad fi system which is exponential as more people take on bitcoin

950
01:12:14,240 --> 01:12:20,960
like these bitcoin treasury companies starts morphing to a power-based growth system which

951
01:12:20,960 --> 01:12:30,340
is Bitcoin, or Bitcoin, which is a power-based growth network model, starts getting subsumed,

952
01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:36,460
taken over, starts morphing to a TradFi exponential growth system.

953
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:39,820
Systems can morph like this.

954
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:40,580
I'm not an expert.

955
01:12:40,720 --> 01:12:42,240
I'm not a statistician, but they can morph.

956
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:46,580
One of those two things would have to happen.

957
01:12:46,960 --> 01:12:49,180
That, to me, is the philosophical question.

958
01:12:49,180 --> 01:12:58,360
And I think if we imagine a system where Bitcoin is a little bit more captured by the state, the state is still around.

959
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:05,700
People, you know, it's a less optimistic scenario, in my opinion.

960
01:13:06,860 --> 01:13:09,060
I'm not saying it's a dead scenario.

961
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,660
In neither scenario, Bitcoin is bad.

962
01:13:11,740 --> 01:13:12,460
I want to be clear right here.

963
01:13:12,660 --> 01:13:13,840
Bitcoin is good in both scenarios.

964
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:33,560
But if Bitcoin moves into an exponential mode where you kind of just compare it with a stock market growth or, you know, whatever, the deposit rate of growth or whatever, then that probably means Bitcoin's pretty integrated into a controlled TradFi system.

965
01:13:33,560 --> 01:13:41,780
on the on the contrary if the world is more free and people are using bitcoin and there's a lot of

966
01:13:41,780 --> 01:13:48,360
control and bitcoin create still continues to have this natural interesting sustainable power

967
01:13:48,360 --> 01:13:52,120
growth that kind of levels off with a slower rate of growth and everybody understands sats

968
01:13:52,120 --> 01:13:57,160
everything else is getting cheaper in terms of sats but interest rates won't exactly make sense

969
01:13:57,160 --> 01:14:01,860
in this system because interest rates are constant you have to understand that point

970
01:14:01,860 --> 01:14:09,480
if all of those things are true then i think this is actually a graphical representation of the

971
01:14:09,480 --> 01:14:15,620
trad fi system will go power and this is my next step of my research that i want to look at is and

972
01:14:15,620 --> 01:14:20,060
i don't have an answer to you yet about this but i'm just thinking about this is i think if you

973
01:14:20,060 --> 01:14:24,520
start to get a bunch of companies on balance sheet holding bitcoin and bitcoin becomes a huge part of

974
01:14:24,520 --> 01:14:31,380
their cash reserves then you might see their stock prices have this gentle bend it's still a

975
01:14:31,380 --> 01:14:36,920
way faster than TradFi, but it is going to be a more gentle bend in the power direction.

976
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:42,580
And that's going to have like vast implications. Like I can't even explain, you know, again,

977
01:14:42,580 --> 01:14:48,100
how that's going to work. But anyway, that's my thought. To me, it's kind of interesting.

978
01:14:49,200 --> 01:14:55,480
I'm just sort of, I'm still playing around with it, but I think what we're going to see is two

979
01:14:55,480 --> 01:14:57,280
worlds colliding and mathematically

980
01:14:57,280 --> 01:14:58,360
one is exponential

981
01:14:58,360 --> 01:15:00,1000
the other one is power

982
01:15:00,1000 --> 01:15:02,640
and we're going to actually see what

983
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:05,420
see which one wins and I'm not exactly sure

984
01:15:05,420 --> 01:15:07,220
which one will win but those are my thoughts

985
01:15:07,220 --> 01:15:09,580
the caveman brain

986
01:15:09,580 --> 01:15:09,980
of me

987
01:15:09,980 --> 01:15:12,940
is looking at

988
01:15:12,940 --> 01:15:15,780
the power versus the exponential

989
01:15:15,780 --> 01:15:17,240
growth rates

990
01:15:17,240 --> 01:15:19,280
many of the charts that you've shown today

991
01:15:19,280 --> 01:15:21,220
and understanding

992
01:15:21,220 --> 01:15:23,660
intuiting that humans

993
01:15:23,660 --> 01:15:25,080
our brains really

994
01:15:25,080 --> 01:15:27,300
cannot fathom exponential growth.

995
01:15:27,760 --> 01:15:30,480
We can fathom it, but you can't recognize

996
01:15:30,480 --> 01:15:33,820
it's happening to you while it's happening in the moment.

997
01:15:33,820 --> 01:15:37,620
A lot of times it seemed like an economy based

998
01:15:37,620 --> 01:15:39,960
off of systems that are growing in a power trend

999
01:15:39,960 --> 01:15:43,900
is much more predictable and much easier to

1000
01:15:43,900 --> 01:15:47,840
plan within compared to

1001
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:51,680
exponential. Correct. But the rub there, the one hiccup

1002
01:15:51,680 --> 01:15:58,940
is, and let me put this in this way, and I got to do here, but it's a bit annoying software, but

1003
01:15:58,940 --> 01:16:08,740
go. This is the growth rate of each. Okay. Here we are. Roughly right now, Bitcoin's at 45%.

1004
01:16:08,740 --> 01:16:13,180
Let's just assume, I know TradFi has all different hurdle rates people have their own,

1005
01:16:13,220 --> 01:16:18,200
but the growth of base money plus gold, silver on a market cap basis, 7.3% per year.

1006
01:16:18,200 --> 01:16:28,060
i would actually contend to you that our primitive monkey brains say the opposite it's easier to

1007
01:16:28,060 --> 01:16:32,500
predict something like this and this is indeed what the talking heads on cnbc say every day

1008
01:16:32,500 --> 01:16:36,740
yes can you get me a seven percent return can you give me a percent return we all have different

1009
01:16:36,740 --> 01:16:44,860
returns and returns do change a little bit but generally if you graph this out uh the number the

1010
01:16:44,860 --> 01:16:48,640
The interest rate is a straight line, and also the growth rate is a straight line.

1011
01:16:49,300 --> 01:16:51,060
One goes up to the right.

1012
01:16:51,620 --> 01:16:54,020
That is the actual in-dollar terms of the stock.

1013
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:59,580
But the rate of growth is a predictable 7% per year.

1014
01:17:01,040 --> 01:17:02,440
That's a powerful force.

1015
01:17:02,740 --> 01:17:05,280
It doesn't always work, like I said, and we talked about it.

1016
01:17:05,400 --> 01:17:06,320
It can explode.

1017
01:17:07,220 --> 01:17:08,400
It can be unsustainable.

1018
01:17:08,500 --> 01:17:09,200
We can talk about debt.

1019
01:17:10,120 --> 01:17:11,200
We haven't even talked about that.

1020
01:17:11,260 --> 01:17:14,240
I don't know if we'll have time on the show, but I got charged for that.

1021
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:17,320
that we can go a while longer on the debt, in my opinion.

1022
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,700
But this is TradFi.

1023
01:17:21,060 --> 01:17:23,820
What happens when you get a network that starts growing?

1024
01:17:25,980 --> 01:17:28,780
Sorry, this is TradFi in a rate of growth.

1025
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:32,760
What happens when you get a network that's so amazing and so strong

1026
01:17:32,760 --> 01:17:34,960
and everything gets cheaper in terms of it?

1027
01:17:36,160 --> 01:17:41,080
But the nature of it is actually that the rate of growth declines every year

1028
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:42,720
in a more sustainable way.

1029
01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:51,400
and then what's the weird thing do we go back to trad fi in uh in 70 years or 60 years whatever it

1030
01:17:51,400 --> 01:17:59,520
is um you know 80 years when we get to here this is all very interesting questions in my opinion

1031
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:03,580
and uh i don't have an answer i don't have an answer but this is

1032
01:18:03,580 --> 01:18:07,980
this this black line which is the growth rate of bitcoin as a network

1033
01:18:07,980 --> 01:18:18,140
is only seen in sort of like nodes and uh i don't know it's it's sort of weird networking

1034
01:18:18,140 --> 01:18:26,360
things it's not really seen in assets in assets uh you know like things natural emergent systems

1035
01:18:26,360 --> 01:18:31,460
right things grow this way yeah it's it's more exactly it's more of a natural emergent phenomenon

1036
01:18:31,460 --> 01:18:36,800
is what this is it's a sustainable phenomenon but this is more financial phenomenon

1037
01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:43,820
and so these worlds are going to collide somewhere here probably like really obviously as we said

1038
01:18:43,820 --> 01:18:49,020
bitcoin's going to overtake the value of that world but that's not the end of that other world

1039
01:18:49,020 --> 01:18:52,740
so i'm trying to figure out this stuff let me show you one more thing here while we're on this

1040
01:18:52,740 --> 01:18:59,720
this strain of thought um how much more time you got we got like half an hour

1041
01:18:59,720 --> 01:19:06,820
we have plenty of time so here's procter and gamble this is a good old cincinnati company

1042
01:19:06,820 --> 01:19:15,080
my my porkopolis uh uh brand is actually based in this because it's a you know over 100 year

1043
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:22,200
s&p 500 company started as a soap maker soap was a byproduct of the hogs in cincinnati during the

1044
01:19:22,200 --> 01:19:27,940
industrial revolution then it turned into a consumer product powerhouse then it concerned

1045
01:19:27,940 --> 01:19:31,380
into a marketing powerhouse. You never know where an economy will go, basically.

1046
01:19:32,140 --> 01:19:39,740
That was Procter & Gamble, Fortune 500 company. And here's how it grows. This is market cap of P&G.

1047
01:19:40,640 --> 01:19:48,660
It's about $400 billion under trend, but at the moment, it's $400 billion market cap,

1048
01:19:48,920 --> 01:19:54,260
Procter & Gamble. Trend is higher. You can see it just pops up to the trend line here. It's

1049
01:19:54,260 --> 01:20:04,180
425 billion but there it is uh not as fast as the growth rate as actually it's about i think it's

1050
01:20:04,180 --> 01:20:08,920
about nine percent growth rate is this trend and i'm only measuring this again from 2009 so

1051
01:20:08,920 --> 01:20:14,520
it's actually had slower growth certainly in the 1800s and slower growth in the 1900s but

1052
01:20:14,520 --> 01:20:19,580
as we've moved up those treadmills it's faster so here's here's png and here's bitcoin

1053
01:20:19,580 --> 01:20:23,960
Bitcoin is obviously has no problem beating it.

1054
01:20:24,180 --> 01:20:24,320
You know,

1055
01:20:24,360 --> 01:20:24,660
Bitcoin,

1056
01:20:24,840 --> 01:20:25,200
as we know,

1057
01:20:25,220 --> 01:20:25,900
is one of the top,

1058
01:20:26,040 --> 01:20:27,440
if you value it against stocks,

1059
01:20:27,440 --> 01:20:29,960
it's one of the top six stocks in the world right now.

1060
01:20:30,020 --> 01:20:30,800
Bitcoin is not a stock,

1061
01:20:30,880 --> 01:20:32,980
but it is top six stocks in the world,

1062
01:20:32,980 --> 01:20:34,720
but has no problem beating this.

1063
01:20:34,800 --> 01:20:35,960
And even with that power curve,

1064
01:20:35,960 --> 01:20:37,460
which is not a straight line,

1065
01:20:37,460 --> 01:20:37,880
it's,

1066
01:20:37,880 --> 01:20:38,080
you know,

1067
01:20:38,080 --> 01:20:38,700
well above it.

1068
01:20:38,780 --> 01:20:40,100
And we don't have to think about the future,

1069
01:20:40,160 --> 01:20:40,340
right?

1070
01:20:43,960 --> 01:20:45,340
That Bitcoin dominance curves,

1071
01:20:45,520 --> 01:20:46,380
it does crest,

1072
01:20:46,640 --> 01:20:47,800
but it's way out in the future.

1073
01:20:47,800 --> 01:20:49,420
We don't have to really think about it.

1074
01:20:49,420 --> 01:20:55,920
But what happens if we look at a company like Apple?

1075
01:20:58,320 --> 01:20:59,420
And I will...

1076
01:21:02,220 --> 01:21:03,720
All right, so I'm ready.

1077
01:21:04,720 --> 01:21:05,920
We look at a company like Apple.

1078
01:21:07,580 --> 01:21:13,360
Apple has grown extremely fast in the last 15 years in the life of Bitcoin.

1079
01:21:13,720 --> 01:21:15,600
It started out as a...

1080
01:21:15,600 --> 01:21:18,400
When Bitcoin was born, Apple was a $70 billion company.

1081
01:21:18,400 --> 01:21:23,620
And this is why people that don't actually look at the numbers, you'd be amazed at how fast things grow.

1082
01:21:24,500 --> 01:21:28,160
Apple was a $70 billion company on January 3rd, 2009.

1083
01:21:28,420 --> 01:21:29,660
Now, $3.2 trillion.

1084
01:21:30,700 --> 01:21:32,160
The $3.2 trillion company.

1085
01:21:33,300 --> 01:21:35,660
What's the rate of growth of that over the last 15 years?

1086
01:21:35,840 --> 01:21:37,020
22% per year.

1087
01:21:37,600 --> 01:21:38,060
It's massive.

1088
01:21:38,740 --> 01:21:41,500
Not as big as Bitcoin's, 45% at the moment even.

1089
01:21:41,900 --> 01:21:42,780
But it's still massive.

1090
01:21:43,220 --> 01:21:44,260
And it's still a straight line.

1091
01:21:44,720 --> 01:21:47,980
Unquestionably exponential growth, 95% R square, straight line.

1092
01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:49,400
on log scale.

1093
01:21:51,140 --> 01:21:52,900
Now, let's put Bitcoin.

1094
01:21:53,540 --> 01:21:55,700
I'm not saying Bitcoin has to be bigger than Apple,

1095
01:21:55,820 --> 01:21:59,060
but let's just put a TradFi system,

1096
01:21:59,180 --> 01:22:00,940
which is also a network, by the way, Apple.

1097
01:22:04,060 --> 01:22:06,160
Don't get confused with that, with the power versus that.

1098
01:22:06,700 --> 01:22:08,500
Obviously, there's a network of Apple users,

1099
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:09,360
but it's still a company.

1100
01:22:09,460 --> 01:22:10,080
It's still TradFi.

1101
01:22:10,800 --> 01:22:25,560
What happens when we put this exponential growth against that same Bitcoin power growth We cross it but very briefly and then we actually back under it already by 2046

1102
01:22:26,020 --> 01:22:28,560
About the time we're going to pass fiat-based money,

1103
01:22:28,800 --> 01:22:31,400
we're back under it, and we do the dominance curve.

1104
01:22:31,580 --> 01:22:35,880
We crest way earlier at only about 120% value of Apple,

1105
01:22:36,340 --> 01:22:37,520
and then we go down.

1106
01:22:38,920 --> 01:22:42,560
So again, I'm putting this out there live

1107
01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:44,560
for viewer content, so to speak,

1108
01:22:44,680 --> 01:22:46,960
and feedback if people have thoughts about this.

1109
01:22:47,400 --> 01:22:48,780
I don't think anybody's explored this

1110
01:22:48,780 --> 01:22:52,040
as far as what actually this means.

1111
01:22:52,300 --> 01:22:53,960
But, you know,

1112
01:22:54,100 --> 01:22:57,900
there are few stocks that can compete with Bitcoin this way.

1113
01:22:58,060 --> 01:22:59,100
Apple's a huge company.

1114
01:22:59,620 --> 01:23:00,460
It grows fast.

1115
01:23:02,300 --> 01:23:04,240
If we assume that it would continue to grow

1116
01:23:04,240 --> 01:23:06,560
at a 22% growth rate per year,

1117
01:23:06,660 --> 01:23:07,500
which is massive,

1118
01:23:07,500 --> 01:23:10,440
then

1119
01:23:10,440 --> 01:23:12,680
Apple's going to be at 200

1120
01:23:12,680 --> 01:23:15,260
by 2040 Apple's going to be about a

1121
01:23:15,260 --> 01:23:17,120
90 trillion dollar company

1122
01:23:17,120 --> 01:23:18,920
Bitcoin will be

1123
01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:20,680
105 trillion dollar asset

1124
01:23:20,680 --> 01:23:21,360
bigger

1125
01:23:21,360 --> 01:23:24,920
but that power growth of Bitcoin will

1126
01:23:24,920 --> 01:23:27,040
will be slower and Apple will

1127
01:23:27,040 --> 01:23:28,500
still be on the exponential growth

1128
01:23:28,500 --> 01:23:33,300
there it goes back to my question does Bitcoin

1129
01:23:33,300 --> 01:23:35,080
move to

1130
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:37,100
exponential or

1131
01:23:37,100 --> 01:23:39,080
does TradFi move to power?

1132
01:23:39,400 --> 01:23:41,320
Because maybe Apple shareholders are demanding

1133
01:23:41,320 --> 01:23:42,140
that we hold Bitcoin

1134
01:23:42,140 --> 01:23:44,800
in their treasury as a cash asset.

1135
01:23:46,780 --> 01:23:49,040
This is what I'm trying to play around with

1136
01:23:49,040 --> 01:23:49,420
at the moment.

1137
01:23:50,700 --> 01:23:52,820
Well, I think

1138
01:23:52,820 --> 01:23:54,740
if we assume that at some point

1139
01:23:54,740 --> 01:23:56,640
in the next few decades we hit

1140
01:23:56,640 --> 01:23:59,120
a Bitcoin standard,

1141
01:24:00,260 --> 01:24:01,120
it wouldn't

1142
01:24:01,120 --> 01:24:02,180
even matter.

1143
01:24:02,820 --> 01:24:05,060
You would imagine that a lot of these companies would be

1144
01:24:05,060 --> 01:24:07,060
forced to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet and then

1145
01:24:07,060 --> 01:24:19,200
like their stock would be priced in sats and the treasuries of the governments would

1146
01:24:19,200 --> 01:24:22,700
have a lot of bitcoin reserves and people would be pricing stuff so

1147
01:24:22,700 --> 01:24:31,220
i think at some point along this journey there'll just be like a disconnection from the fiasco i

1148
01:24:31,220 --> 01:24:32,1000
I'm just spitballing here.

1149
01:24:33,460 --> 01:24:33,820
No, no.

1150
01:24:34,300 --> 01:24:35,060
That's what I'm saying.

1151
01:24:35,240 --> 01:24:39,760
I don't think compound interest works in that system.

1152
01:24:40,420 --> 01:24:45,460
I think you can have interest in debt instruments and all the rest,

1153
01:24:45,640 --> 01:24:47,400
but you'd have to literally pay,

1154
01:24:47,480 --> 01:24:50,040
as you talked about with your friend who you're talking about this,

1155
01:24:50,160 --> 01:24:53,020
you'd have to think in terms of the future value of the money.

1156
01:24:53,960 --> 01:24:55,960
Bitcoin is going to be on such a strong trend.

1157
01:24:56,720 --> 01:24:57,740
You and I see this trend now.

1158
01:24:57,800 --> 01:24:59,300
We see that it's 96% R-squared.

1159
01:24:59,380 --> 01:24:59,860
It's amazing.

1160
01:24:59,860 --> 01:25:01,380
we're on the trend

1161
01:25:01,380 --> 01:25:04,040
but it's on such a strong

1162
01:25:04,040 --> 01:25:05,680
trend

1163
01:25:05,680 --> 01:25:08,480
that holds your purchasing power

1164
01:25:08,480 --> 01:25:10,500
you know we have this limited supply

1165
01:25:10,500 --> 01:25:12,340
everybody's using

1166
01:25:12,340 --> 01:25:13,1000
stats so there's just

1167
01:25:13,1000 --> 01:25:15,540
there literally won't be

1168
01:25:15,540 --> 01:25:17,580
enough stats to go around

1169
01:25:17,580 --> 01:25:20,320
with exponential growth

1170
01:25:20,320 --> 01:25:21,900
right

1171
01:25:21,900 --> 01:25:24,060
so if there's literally not enough

1172
01:25:24,060 --> 01:25:25,680
stats to go around with exponential growth

1173
01:25:25,680 --> 01:25:27,620
the compounding loan contract

1174
01:25:27,620 --> 01:25:28,560
you know

1175
01:25:28,560 --> 01:25:32,180
what do debt contracts look like at that point?

1176
01:25:32,280 --> 01:25:34,360
What do factoring or, you know,

1177
01:25:35,040 --> 01:25:39,320
what's the word, like working capital type contracts look like?

1178
01:25:39,360 --> 01:25:40,580
What do line of credits look like?

1179
01:25:40,1000 --> 01:25:41,120
Yeah.

1180
01:25:41,580 --> 01:25:43,820
This is, I think, a very interesting question.

1181
01:25:44,640 --> 01:25:48,160
I mean, I think SAFE has been a big advocate of this,

1182
01:25:48,160 --> 01:25:51,240
but you just transition to an equity-based funding mechanism

1183
01:25:51,240 --> 01:25:53,280
where you're putting up capital,

1184
01:25:53,400 --> 01:25:56,1000
you're just buying a percentage of the revenue,

1185
01:25:57,160 --> 01:25:58,480
the profits moving forward, right?

1186
01:25:58,560 --> 01:25:59,880
dividend payouts.

1187
01:26:01,640 --> 01:26:02,460
Is that

1188
01:26:02,460 --> 01:26:04,760
we do move all of financing

1189
01:26:04,760 --> 01:26:05,860
to that model? I don't know.

1190
01:26:08,220 --> 01:26:10,360
I don't either. Because

1191
01:26:10,360 --> 01:26:12,660
remember, the TradFi

1192
01:26:12,660 --> 01:26:13,620
system is still around.

1193
01:26:15,140 --> 01:26:16,400
We may not like it.

1194
01:26:16,700 --> 01:26:18,180
We might not get to this point where

1195
01:26:18,180 --> 01:26:19,980
everybody is taking nukes

1196
01:26:19,980 --> 01:26:22,120
and denuclearizing

1197
01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:22,560
and

1198
01:26:22,560 --> 01:26:26,620
selling into the Bitcoin network

1199
01:26:26,620 --> 01:26:28,460
their nuclear power, which

1200
01:26:28,460 --> 01:26:35,260
I hope they do. Totally agree with that point, by the way. It's a question mark to me. It's a

1201
01:26:35,260 --> 01:26:43,540
question mark to me. But what I think I'm onto here is a graphical representation of sort of this

1202
01:26:43,540 --> 01:26:54,240
connection. It will be faster and almost a non-issue for some companies. For example,

1203
01:26:54,240 --> 01:27:01,320
here with proctor like you know if it was just like say the biggest stock in the world was proctor

1204
01:27:01,320 --> 01:27:06,480
and gamble not but let's just say it was and and bitcoin was the value that it was it has this

1205
01:27:06,480 --> 01:27:10,460
value we wouldn't even need to think about this question maybe the trad fi world would still move

1206
01:27:10,460 --> 01:27:18,220
on some continuous compounding exponential growth standard compounding loan type situation

1207
01:27:18,220 --> 01:27:23,200
and then if you wanted to get out and take profits and get into sound money then you get into sound

1208
01:27:23,200 --> 01:27:27,300
money because bitcoin would be bigger than procter and just you know the stock market would be a

1209
01:27:27,300 --> 01:27:33,040
separate player separate game but this happens with apple it also happens with microsoft and a

1210
01:27:33,040 --> 01:27:36,700
few you know there's there's only five stocks in the world that are bigger than bitcoin at the

1211
01:27:36,700 --> 01:27:47,240
moment google is another one amazon and nvidia um those companies which are all obviously uh

1212
01:27:47,240 --> 01:27:52,120
network sort of based companies you know they have network effects they have

1213
01:27:52,120 --> 01:27:56,880
uh they have a lot of power they have a lot of power in government

1214
01:27:56,880 --> 01:28:02,920
and this sort of uh i don't use the word singularity but this this

1215
01:28:02,920 --> 01:28:11,900
this uh this crossover this convergence happens a lot sooner than it was even with the fiat money

1216
01:28:11,900 --> 01:28:13,880
Remember, this is the fiat money chart.

1217
01:28:14,720 --> 01:28:19,180
Bitcoin has no problem passing and staying above it for a long time.

1218
01:28:20,440 --> 01:28:23,860
And for a few months, I was running this and I was like, oh, maybe it just doesn't matter.

1219
01:28:24,560 --> 01:28:25,720
We'll be on a sat standard, whatever.

1220
01:28:25,980 --> 01:28:28,280
But it's very interesting.

1221
01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:35,120
There's a few companies that are still bigger than Bitcoin.

1222
01:28:36,740 --> 01:28:38,260
And they grow exponentially.

1223
01:28:38,260 --> 01:28:44,340
I want to believe

1224
01:28:44,340 --> 01:28:47,660
I'll put my Bitcoin utopian hat on

1225
01:28:47,660 --> 01:28:49,380
I want to believe that Bitcoin is going to change

1226
01:28:49,380 --> 01:28:50,720
the whole world

1227
01:28:50,720 --> 01:28:52,340
and move it to a system

1228
01:28:52,340 --> 01:28:54,180
that is more sustainable

1229
01:28:54,180 --> 01:28:59,640
other people might have other ideas

1230
01:28:59,640 --> 01:29:01,140
what's the argument against that

1231
01:29:01,140 --> 01:29:02,340
somebody like Apple would be like

1232
01:29:02,340 --> 01:29:05,340
shareholders will not be happy

1233
01:29:05,340 --> 01:29:06,600
with power trend growth

1234
01:29:06,600 --> 01:29:13,320
they prefer the exponential growth that we have exhibited for the better part of half a century

1235
01:29:14,680 --> 01:29:22,760
um would there be like some internal pushback on that because they're essentially at some point

1236
01:29:24,440 --> 01:29:29,240
accepting lower growth rate and they're not happy with that so they would

1237
01:29:29,240 --> 01:29:37,840
lobby the government and try to yeah perturb the adoption of bitcoin as a standard

1238
01:29:37,840 --> 01:29:43,420
yeah you see what i mean like if bitcoin if bitcoin was just dwarfed the size of apple

1239
01:29:43,420 --> 01:29:49,340
in the projection and i'm not saying the projection is gospel but it's pretty good and i and i so far

1240
01:29:49,340 --> 01:29:54,460
believe in it but if bitcoin was like dwarfed it it was like the safe place like it's like you take

1241
01:29:54,460 --> 01:29:59,040
your risk in the stock market and then you go back to the castle for safety, then I wouldn't

1242
01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:02,840
even ask this question. But Bitcoin does not dwarf Apple. It does not dwarf Microsoft.

1243
01:30:07,180 --> 01:30:12,360
Also, keep in mind, gold grows exponentially and Apple, Microsoft,

1244
01:30:13,260 --> 01:30:19,700
NVIDIA, they're all smaller than gold. Gold is a $20 trillion asset at the moment. Gold is not

1245
01:30:19,700 --> 01:30:27,640
going away gold is a great year right last couple years it's gone up 3x it had a terrible 2010s

1246
01:30:27,640 --> 01:30:35,160
peter schiff much to peter schiff's uh dismay much to his chagrin it's gone completely sideways

1247
01:30:35,160 --> 01:30:42,900
uh until a couple years ago but there's a lot of moving parts here my point again hopefully the

1248
01:30:42,900 --> 01:30:48,140
listeners can catch the thread of my uh i'm picking out of my jib here i'm not trying to

1249
01:30:48,140 --> 01:30:52,980
be utopian i'm trying to show you some warnings i'm trying to show you the data there's a lot of

1250
01:30:52,980 --> 01:31:00,180
numbers here uh where i've put this together yes we're in a dollar numeraire situation um

1251
01:31:00,180 --> 01:31:06,920
but this looking at these large cap stock market caps against bitcoin is kind of interesting

1252
01:31:06,920 --> 01:31:13,680
the growth rate so it's funny like we're focusing on apple too i'm not sure if you've been

1253
01:31:13,680 --> 01:31:20,380
paying attention to the conversation around apple and the trad fi world which is they're falling

1254
01:31:20,380 --> 01:31:26,980
behind we've got a ton of cash they've reached a lot of equities analysts talk about this point

1255
01:31:26,980 --> 01:31:35,280
like you get so big that your incentive really isn't to innovate bring new products to market

1256
01:31:35,280 --> 01:31:40,520
and grow it's just like to protect the the cash flow cows that you've already produced which

1257
01:31:40,520 --> 01:31:46,120
introduces like the innovators dilemma and it's something like is there like natural entropy to

1258
01:31:46,120 --> 01:31:53,960
companies that reach a scale from a productivity and growth perspective yeah and actually that's

1259
01:31:53,960 --> 01:31:59,120
a good coda i i should say that because again this is more analysis i need to do myself but

1260
01:31:59,120 --> 01:32:03,860
remember this trend line for apple that i drew here this is only based on basically the best

1261
01:32:03,860 --> 01:32:10,100
years of the company right like ipod was in full swing here when bitcoin was launched they were

1262
01:32:10,100 --> 01:32:15,340
just moving into the iphone which was a mega cash driver so this was like this was the best years of

1263
01:32:15,340 --> 01:32:22,980
the company if you put a trend on this market cap growth 22 for you mega fucking mega but if you

1264
01:32:22,980 --> 01:32:27,260
stretch this out and i went back to the 80s for apple i don't know what it is but their growth

1265
01:32:27,260 --> 01:32:33,080
would be much slower like call it 10 i don't know and it's totally possible if you want to

1266
01:32:33,080 --> 01:32:38,840
sort of it might be hard when i talk about constant growth but it all depends on where

1267
01:32:38,840 --> 01:32:44,380
your starting point is when you do this okay so we picked a i'm picking the life of bitcoin to

1268
01:32:44,380 --> 01:32:48,860
measure this but it's totally possible like you said that apple becomes like an ibm or something

1269
01:32:48,860 --> 01:32:54,540
you know like a main like it's a bad analogy but you know like it's a it's a more legacy

1270
01:32:54,540 --> 01:33:00,520
tech company whatever and because of like you said the innovators dilemma they just need to

1271
01:33:00,520 --> 01:33:06,160
help their shareholders it could be that if you back this out and you looked at the lifetime

1272
01:33:06,160 --> 01:33:11,940
trend of the Apple stock, let's just call it, let's say it's 10% per year from the 80s,

1273
01:33:12,160 --> 01:33:20,000
not 22% from 2008. It could be that Apple reverts to that lifetime trend and then you would still

1274
01:33:20,000 --> 01:33:24,620
be on a lower trend than a trend that would be passed by Bitcoin in a sooner manner, in a sooner

1275
01:33:24,620 --> 01:33:31,140
fashion than, or in a more sustainable fashion, let's say, than what this looks like. So that's

1276
01:33:31,140 --> 01:33:35,860
also a little coda. I know we're talking a lot of numbers when I come on and I just want people

1277
01:33:35,860 --> 01:33:36,820
to understand like

1278
01:33:36,820 --> 01:33:39,860
I love this thought experiment

1279
01:33:39,860 --> 01:33:42,060
yeah your compound growth can change

1280
01:33:42,060 --> 01:33:43,160
it's just

1281
01:33:43,160 --> 01:33:45,740
pick a lifetime

1282
01:33:45,740 --> 01:33:47,920
number and see what it is and then you'll kind of get

1283
01:33:47,920 --> 01:33:50,060
the broad framework of how things grow

1284
01:33:50,060 --> 01:33:52,180
it's like the stock of gold grows 1.8%

1285
01:33:52,180 --> 01:34:08,420
per year the actual units of gold that been a constant number for over 200 years yeah yeah because i mean it hard to see people disrupting apple materially in the next decade

1286
01:34:08,420 --> 01:34:16,820
on the phone and the laptops i think that's probably like the biggest driver of innovation

1287
01:34:16,820 --> 01:34:19,800
within Apple is actually the chips, the M1M2 chips.

1288
01:34:20,960 --> 01:34:22,120
They're pretty incredible.

1289
01:34:22,460 --> 01:34:26,040
Phone, they're not innovating too much there

1290
01:34:26,040 --> 01:34:29,280
and actually messing up the UI and the software.

1291
01:34:30,100 --> 01:34:33,000
That's a big question now with like Meta, OpenAI,

1292
01:34:34,220 --> 01:34:38,500
Tesla, Microsoft really leaning into AI

1293
01:34:38,500 --> 01:34:40,900
and Apple falling behind.

1294
01:34:41,020 --> 01:34:42,240
That's like a lot of the analysts are like,

1295
01:34:42,240 --> 01:34:46,600
they're just, they've turned into this massive bloated,

1296
01:34:46,820 --> 01:34:53,380
sort of bad and happy corporation that's just protecting its existing cash flows and

1297
01:34:53,380 --> 01:34:59,960
yep just trying to sustain and is there some point in the future where that that entropy

1298
01:34:59,960 --> 01:35:06,640
sort of hits a critical threshold where uh upstarts or competitors are able to take market share from

1299
01:35:06,640 --> 01:35:12,840
them all all reasonable thoughts here i have it on my website as well if people want to check it out

1300
01:35:12,840 --> 01:35:17,800
this is the ranking at the moment so nvidia is a nearly four trillion dollar company

1301
01:35:17,800 --> 01:35:27,320
microsoft 3.7 apple here you see at 3.2 amazon 2.37 then bitcoin at 2.16 trillion just ahead of

1302
01:35:27,320 --> 01:35:35,720
alphabet past meta pretty handily this year at 1.87 and then the old saudis saudi aramco

1303
01:35:35,720 --> 01:35:44,780
1.61 trillion uh interesting interesting outlier there the only non-tech type company

1304
01:35:44,780 --> 01:35:51,820
one is uh i love these these charts because it really cements bitcoin as a brand name

1305
01:35:51,820 --> 01:35:56,300
because when you think of like i mean the video is like a relatively new brand name but brand name

1306
01:35:56,300 --> 01:36:02,560
nonetheless but then you get microsoft apple amazon google meta formerly and the video has

1307
01:36:02,560 --> 01:36:08,380
been around i mean the video has been around for decades yeah it's just way more popular these days

1308
01:36:08,380 --> 01:36:14,240
yeah yeah no it's bitcoin is if actually i said six before it's ahead of google just now so if

1309
01:36:14,240 --> 01:36:19,700
if bitcoin were a stock it'd be a top five stock globally it's unbelievable and if bitcoin is money

1310
01:36:19,700 --> 01:36:26,560
which it is then you go back to this chart and it's a top six money including gold we've got gold

1311
01:36:26,560 --> 01:36:35,420
20 trillion as i said a dollar by you know 5.8 trillion the euro 5.4 china this is from actually

1312
01:36:35,420 --> 01:36:43,900
i need to update this but this is i think q4 uh the euro 5.4 and the chinese yuan 5.25 trillion

1313
01:36:43,900 --> 01:36:50,880
oh no i did up this yeah we're at 2.16 right now i'm looking at the show 2.16 this this live

1314
01:36:50,880 --> 01:36:57,400
updates but sometimes uh the the last quarter in native fiat is is uh updated every quarter but

1315
01:36:57,400 --> 01:37:03,240
anyway the exchange rates upgrade update every day so yeah i mean that's my stuff man i'm uh i

1316
01:37:03,240 --> 01:37:07,660
know i'm pumping a lot of my own stuff these days but uh if anyone would like to donate that's good

1317
01:37:07,660 --> 01:37:13,540
pump your stuff you got my btc pay server i'm the anti-newsletter newsletter guy i mean i'm trying

1318
01:37:13,540 --> 01:37:14,800
to give all this stuff away free.

1319
01:37:16,980 --> 01:37:17,420
But

1320
01:37:17,420 --> 01:37:19,460
you know, if you like it,

1321
01:37:20,340 --> 01:37:21,440
I stream daily

1322
01:37:21,440 --> 01:37:21,820
and

1323
01:37:21,820 --> 01:37:25,620
I'd love to

1324
01:37:25,620 --> 01:37:27,660
hear people's thoughts about the way things

1325
01:37:27,660 --> 01:37:29,640
grow. I feel like you should be selling this

1326
01:37:29,640 --> 01:37:30,500
data to hedge funds.

1327
01:37:32,300 --> 01:37:33,760
I've been told that a lot.

1328
01:37:35,400 --> 01:37:37,540
Because you're the only one who aggregates all of it, right?

1329
01:37:37,640 --> 01:37:39,680
I know. I know. I know. I know. It's true. It's honestly

1330
01:37:39,680 --> 01:37:41,600
true. There's no APIs. You got to go through and do it.

1331
01:37:41,600 --> 01:37:44,360
brass tax

1332
01:37:44,360 --> 01:37:46,800
a lot of it is

1333
01:37:46,800 --> 01:37:49,200
look, I mean, I'm putting the

1334
01:37:49,200 --> 01:37:51,120
Peruvian central

1335
01:37:51,120 --> 01:37:53,160
bank data in my exhibit

1336
01:37:53,160 --> 01:37:54,380
does anybody really care about it?

1337
01:37:54,440 --> 01:37:56,220
No, they think about the price of Apple

1338
01:37:56,220 --> 01:37:59,320
so a lot of people have data to the real liquidity

1339
01:37:59,320 --> 01:38:00,980
liquid markets that already

1340
01:38:00,980 --> 01:38:02,900
exist, but it is an interesting

1341
01:38:02,900 --> 01:38:05,140
more economic thought experiment

1342
01:38:05,140 --> 01:38:07,300
to put all the central bank money together

1343
01:38:07,300 --> 01:38:09,080
I've been doing it for a long time

1344
01:38:09,080 --> 01:38:11,420
there has to be some esoteric

1345
01:38:11,420 --> 01:38:17,820
quant firm out there that would love this data the well uh i'm actually i'm playing with it again

1346
01:38:17,820 --> 01:38:22,480
not to to my own home or whatever but if i this is it's been a total closed loop like i don't i

1347
01:38:22,480 --> 01:38:29,380
don't share it so i mean i if if people like it i i show it you know you have my reports quarterly

1348
01:38:29,380 --> 01:38:33,680
reports we do the youtube videos uh the moment that i put it out there even if you put it out

1349
01:38:33,680 --> 01:38:37,580
there behind a paywall obviously people can steal it right because it's in uh it's in uh

1350
01:38:37,580 --> 01:38:40,000
whatever, like JSON form.

1351
01:38:40,220 --> 01:38:41,540
And even if it's behind a paywall,

1352
01:38:41,620 --> 01:38:43,400
people can get to it and scrape things.

1353
01:38:44,020 --> 01:38:45,760
Whatever. Everybody's got to make a buck.

1354
01:38:46,040 --> 01:38:47,840
I'm trying, no doubt, to continue.

1355
01:38:47,940 --> 01:38:48,720
I enjoy this.

1356
01:38:49,840 --> 01:38:51,620
I just accept it's value for value for me.

1357
01:38:51,700 --> 01:38:52,420
So it's like donations.

1358
01:38:53,100 --> 01:38:55,160
If you like it, please throw some stats my way.

1359
01:38:55,260 --> 01:38:57,160
But if you don't, you don't have to follow.

1360
01:38:57,780 --> 01:38:59,820
Will you go down to your BTC pay server, please?

1361
01:39:00,200 --> 01:39:01,720
We're going to show the power of Bitcoin right now.

1362
01:39:02,620 --> 01:39:03,180
Yes, we will.

1363
01:39:05,380 --> 01:39:07,140
Do it live on air.

1364
01:39:07,580 --> 01:39:11,120
you're the man dude lightning yeah let's do lightning

1365
01:39:11,120 --> 01:39:15,340
let me see

1366
01:39:15,340 --> 01:39:20,660
love you dude that's power bitcoin

1367
01:39:20,660 --> 01:39:28,960
watch this is this is the beauty of bitcoin you're completely on the other side of the world

1368
01:39:28,960 --> 01:39:34,320
bam and there it is dude that's a that's a good one thank you so much my man thank you

1369
01:39:34,320 --> 01:39:39,000
well thank you i don't pay for guests okay this is not what just happened here

1370
01:39:39,000 --> 01:39:51,000
i have never uh requested payment just to be clear i have never only donations only donations

1371
01:39:51,000 --> 01:39:59,200
value for value yeah it is a ton of value not again whether it's uh what's going on in eastern

1372
01:39:59,200 --> 01:40:04,040
europe or how to think of because i i've been we've been doing this show for six or seven years

1373
01:40:04,040 --> 01:40:10,220
now it's hard to believe yeah quarterly and then you're in the uh i think you're probably the most

1374
01:40:10,220 --> 01:40:12,960
you're definitely the most tenured guest on the show now at this point we've probably done

1375
01:40:12,960 --> 01:40:22,320
24 20 to 24 of these yeah which is insane um we'll continue to do them won't we yeah we will

1376
01:40:22,320 --> 01:40:27,340
and because like it is like again going back to like i have to remind myself even when i was going

1377
01:40:27,340 --> 01:40:35,520
back to looking at the power trend and internalizing that and just using that internalization as

1378
01:40:35,520 --> 01:40:40,920
a filter for all the noise that is rampant on an intraday basis and only going to increase

1379
01:40:40,920 --> 01:40:41,640
from here.

1380
01:40:42,080 --> 01:40:47,300
Like I have to remind myself, like this is why these quarterly updates are somewhat of

1381
01:40:47,300 --> 01:40:51,120
a Bitcoin therapy session for me to ground me back in reality.

1382
01:40:51,600 --> 01:40:55,260
Just understand that we have this network growth rate that's happening.

1383
01:40:55,760 --> 01:40:56,880
It's observable.

1384
01:40:57,340 --> 01:41:02,740
It is repeatable with other networks outside of Bitcoin.

1385
01:41:04,040 --> 01:41:08,580
And I think just looking at this observable data is very valuable.

1386
01:41:09,060 --> 01:41:10,220
Thank you for putting it together.

1387
01:41:10,980 --> 01:41:12,000
Well, you're welcome.

1388
01:41:12,300 --> 01:41:18,180
And I also want to say I appreciate you listening to my soapbox rants about Ukraine now for three years.

1389
01:41:18,180 --> 01:41:21,940
Because I am well aware there are plenty of Bitcoiners, MAGA types.

1390
01:41:22,200 --> 01:41:26,180
Or even if you're not a MAGA type and consider yourself a purist, libertarian.

1391
01:41:26,180 --> 01:41:29,280
And you probably don't know a lot about that situation.

1392
01:41:29,280 --> 01:41:32,880
But again, I'm trying to, you know, I'm pretty grounded over here.

1393
01:41:32,920 --> 01:41:36,940
I feel like we're literally under threat from a dictatorial regime.

1394
01:41:36,940 --> 01:41:38,240
And it's just, you know.

1395
01:41:40,100 --> 01:41:40,660
You might.

1396
01:41:42,000 --> 01:41:42,740
Yeah, go ahead.

1397
01:41:43,100 --> 01:41:55,440
I was going to say, going back to what I was saying earlier, like I'm a big believer in information systems and those closer to the information or the data probably have a better sense of what's going on and like physically.

1398
01:41:56,180 --> 01:41:56,820
you are there.

1399
01:41:59,220 --> 01:41:59,740
Yeah.

1400
01:42:00,220 --> 01:42:02,000
It's not easy. It's going to continue.

1401
01:42:02,000 --> 01:42:03,600
That's my problem with the federal government, too.

1402
01:42:03,760 --> 01:42:06,160
You have all these people in D.C. making

1403
01:42:06,160 --> 01:42:08,260
decisions from

1404
01:42:08,260 --> 01:42:10,080
the East Coast, and

1405
01:42:10,080 --> 01:42:11,840
they're making decisions for people in Idaho.

1406
01:42:12,400 --> 01:42:14,260
Nobody making those decisions is close

1407
01:42:14,260 --> 01:42:15,980
to the information that should be

1408
01:42:15,980 --> 01:42:17,540
guiding those decisions.

1409
01:42:18,320 --> 01:42:20,020
Precisely. That's the problem with the Federal Reserve.

1410
01:42:20,400 --> 01:42:21,500
The problem with even a

1411
01:42:21,500 --> 01:42:23,140
decentralized

1412
01:42:23,140 --> 01:42:26,000
network of 12 Federal Reserve branches, which

1413
01:42:26,000 --> 01:42:34,000
and you got like a richmond fed kind of weird now anyway uh they don't know like you said uh what

1414
01:42:34,000 --> 01:42:39,500
the real reserve ratio should be for banks in wyoming or something so uh or wherever

1415
01:42:39,500 --> 01:42:49,580
so i know richmond's not in wyoming i should make an example of many different places where

1416
01:42:49,580 --> 01:42:56,300
people can be and uh your planning board as ruder kayak says is never uh never gonna work

1417
01:42:56,300 --> 01:43:04,940
like the market so we do have the nuclear issue we have the nuclear uh umbrella issue and it's it's

1418
01:43:04,940 --> 01:43:09,140
uh it's it's tense right now i'm not gonna lie it's tense for us the ukrainians are suffering and

1419
01:43:09,140 --> 01:43:13,380
um you know i appreciate you guys listening and i i say that's all the listeners as well because

1420
01:43:13,380 --> 01:43:19,380
i know i can be strident about it but i also feel that i'm right and i feel that uh

1421
01:43:19,380 --> 01:43:26,540
if you're a republican traditional centrist uh call yourself libertarian whatever you have a lot

1422
01:43:26,540 --> 01:43:32,420
of ground to stand on as far as being prepared to stand up against a threat i'm not talking about

1423
01:43:32,420 --> 01:43:37,460
wokeism or all the other rest you know i'm just talking about a real normal threat and um

1424
01:43:38,240 --> 01:43:45,520
it was two democratic administrations where ukraine fell way behind in the free world so

1425
01:43:45,520 --> 01:43:51,340
anyway it's a i appreciate you guys letting me blend topics when i come on the show and talk

1426
01:43:51,340 --> 01:43:59,100
about long-term trends of bitcoin and then other geopolitical stuff well we appreciate you coming

1427
01:43:59,100 --> 01:44:09,200
to do it and i think if we're living true to the name of this company tftc truth for the commoner

1428
01:44:09,200 --> 01:44:14,300
i think the way you find truth is getting different perspectives on the same topic

1429
01:44:14,300 --> 01:44:17,040
so I love

1430
01:44:17,040 --> 01:44:18,440
I love our quarterly updates

1431
01:44:18,440 --> 01:44:21,340
even the parts that a lot of the

1432
01:44:21,340 --> 01:44:23,020
listeners don't like so

1433
01:44:23,020 --> 01:44:26,920
well we're gonna see

1434
01:44:26,920 --> 01:44:28,480
we're gonna see all I can say is

1435
01:44:28,480 --> 01:44:31,200
the direction that

1436
01:44:31,200 --> 01:44:33,300
the administration is currently moving in

1437
01:44:33,300 --> 01:44:35,040
is the direction that I was screaming for

1438
01:44:35,040 --> 01:44:35,820
three and a half years

1439
01:44:35,820 --> 01:44:39,560
you tried appeasement

1440
01:44:39,560 --> 01:44:40,520
let's see what happens

1441
01:44:40,520 --> 01:44:42,120
we shall see

1442
01:44:42,120 --> 01:44:43,900
Chamberlain tried appeasement as well

1443
01:44:43,900 --> 01:44:52,040
so keep that in mind yeah well uh q2 2025 ended nine days ago so i'm sure we'll be catching up it

1444
01:44:52,040 --> 01:44:57,800
typically takes you a month so yeah and this one uh we took a lot it took a while for us to do this

1445
01:44:57,800 --> 01:45:02,680
show but uh you know we've got honey badger coming up in august and things but i think by august uh

1446
01:45:02,680 --> 01:45:08,740
mid-august we can do another one already catch up on q2 all right sweet so we'll catch up next month

1447
01:45:08,740 --> 01:45:09,700
I've got to hop.

1448
01:45:10,520 --> 01:45:10,960
All right.

1449
01:45:11,180 --> 01:45:12,380
We'll call it the top of the hour.

1450
01:45:13,020 --> 01:45:13,860
Thank you, gentlemen.

1451
01:45:15,140 --> 01:45:18,380
Go support the man doing all the work.

1452
01:45:19,140 --> 01:45:21,820
At OneBaseMoney is my handle, if you're curious.

1453
01:45:22,080 --> 01:45:22,780
At OneBaseMoney.

1454
01:45:23,520 --> 01:45:26,660
And PorkopolisEconomics.io.

1455
01:45:29,280 --> 01:45:30,140
That's the website.

1456
01:45:30,400 --> 01:45:30,960
Go check it out.

1457
01:45:32,340 --> 01:45:33,400
Peace and love for you guys.

1458
01:45:34,240 --> 01:45:34,520
Take care.

1459
01:45:34,520 --> 01:45:35,620
Take care.