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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their

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currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Dr. Anas El-Haji, welcome back to the show.

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Thank you. Thank you. It's always a pleasure.

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It's been a while since you were last on, and you haven't been on since the war in Iran started.

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And I was rereading through the notes of our last recording,

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and it was when the saber rattling around Iran was really beginning to heat up.

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And last time we spoke, he called Iran's nuclear standoff, the never ending crisis and said sanctions cannot take Iran's exports anywhere close to zero.

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We're not looking at a conflict that appears to escape the narrow Iran-Israeli frame spread into arteries of the global energy trade.

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But before we go into price, just give us the map.

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It's obviously been evolving, started between the U.S., Israel and Iran in recent weeks.

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It looks like the Houthis in Yemen have entered the fray in the Red Sea.

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There's been a memorandum of understanding, ceasefire on, off, on, off.

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Oil prices up above 100, down to the low 70s, high 60s back in the, I haven't checked today, but I imagine 80s or 90s.

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What is the map looking like today?

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Well, a couple of things before we look at the map, because there are some important issues that people must understand.

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That what we call the Iranian regime is not a unified regime.

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That there are people who want to negotiate.

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There are people who are sincere and they want to build a country and they want to build a nation.

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And there are the others who are after themselves.

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So there are elements of the IRGC, which is the Revolutionary Guard.

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who benefited greatly from the sanctions over the last three decades.

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And they literally make billions of dollars.

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And sanctions enable them to control the economy of Iraq

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and everything that comes in and out.

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So for them, a peaceful resolution basically will literally put them aside,

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and they don't want that.

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So for the last 10 years or so,

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they've been trying really hard to derail any negotiations.

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and when you see their reaction

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and you see the attacks,

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you can tell where the negotiations are going

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from the severity of their attacks,

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which means that the more severe the attack,

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that means the negotiations were doing very well

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and they want to derail them.

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And the issue right now is with those guys.

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But the bigger issue is,

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it just happened those guys

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who are now gaining control in Tehran

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They are the international arm of the regime, which means that they are connected to the Houthis,

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they are connected to Hejbollah, they are connected to the others in Iraq and other places,

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even to the drug cartels in South America and other places.

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Those guys do not care about the future of Iran or building a nation.

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Those guys behave like drug cartels, exactly like drug cartels.

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Look how the drug cartels, for 80 years right now, the United States has been fighting them.

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until now they were not able to conquer them.

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And they are awfully rich.

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They are well-trained.

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They have the most advanced kind of armors in the world.

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They have all kinds of weapons, and they fight.

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So those guys are behaving the same.

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So what is the problem?

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The problem is the U.S. is sending a regular army,

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a regular navy, trying to fight, in their thinking,

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a regular army and a regular navy,

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and that is not the case.

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You are sending a regular army to fight a guerrilla war or a militia, and that does not add up.

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That's one of the mistakes that's been done.

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The other mistake basically being done by the Trump administration is they fail to understand the motives because they thought, oh, well, those guys are after building Iran and the nation, and therefore we can do this and we can do this.

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No, they are not after that.

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They are literally after control and money.

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And if you go for a peaceful resolution, that means you wipe out all their income sources.

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And that does not fit.

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And that's what the Trump administration has to understand.

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So the Trump administration being after them in the recent attack for 14 days, they've been after those guys.

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Notice that they did not kill any of the negotiating team.

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They were after the extremists at the IRGC.

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and everything they done it seems they did not do much simply because those guys are mobile They keep moving And that why the whole structure of the world has to change to be able to make any advancement in the region

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At the same time, again, this part of the regime is the international arm of it.

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So they have people all around the world.

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And that is another problem.

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And that forces the U.S. government and others to think about another strategy on how to work the area.

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And so let's get into the state of the area, because obviously when the war started, there was bombing on both sides.

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And I think one of the biggest fears in the first month was the degradation of the refinery infrastructure, particularly in Qatar, with the natural gas refinery, water salination plants, potentially targets.

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You have a bunch of pipelines and other refineries across the region that were taking on heavy damage.

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And initial reports going to take years to build that capacity back.

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Now, again, like I said earlier, it looks like the Houthis are getting involved in the Red Sea, beginning to bomb Saudi tankers.

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So what is the state of, I guess, the supply chain of oil and gas look like right now as a sandstone?

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And obviously, the strait through which a lot of...

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Before we answer this question, people have to answer the following question.

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And this is kind of the answer to this will lead us to other questions.

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Do people believe that this war is about Iran and its nuclear program?

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Or is it part of a larger change that is happening around the world that includes trade wars, sanctions, tariffs, Venezuela, Panama Canal, China, Russia, Greenland?

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And is this part of the, of course, you add Ukraine and the European Union to this,

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Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2.

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So is this part of that big picture or is just limited to Iran and nuclear program?

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Once people understand that we have to make that distinction and then they get the answer,

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we can get other answers to the other questions.

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because the whole issue at the end, if this is part of this global change,

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then everything fits because the United States forced Russia out of Europe.

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As you know, Russian share in natural gas market declined from 55% to 14%.

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And U.S. share in natural gas market in the EU increased from zero to 30%.

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Now you look at Asia, Qatar is not able to export LNG to Asia.

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So what is the news two days ago?

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Qatar is going to import American LNG to export it to Asia instead of Qatar.

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So all of a sudden the U.S., well, again, when you start asking those questions, you start realizing things are not what the media is telling us and what people are telling us.

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So you go back and look at what happened to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 and how they shut down the Ukrainian pipeline when the contract ended.

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And you look at how the U.S. LNG has become an integral part of U.S. foreign policy.

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And then you look at what happened in Egypt yesterday.

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In Egypt yesterday, we have an attack on LNG terminal, and then two regasification units, both of them are American, by the way, got hit.

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And the question is why and who did that?

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And the Egyptian government refused basically to say more than it is.

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There were two drones and that's it.

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and then the media

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start telling us

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oh it's 2,000 miles

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2,000 kilometers from Iran

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and 1,400 kilometers

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from Yemen and they started kind of

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redirecting our attention

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into something that does not make any sense

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okay

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so Iran is sending

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a drone

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2,000 kilometers

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and no one will know until they hit their targets

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they crossed

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several countries by the way

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several countries and no

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it tells you that whatever we are hearing from the media

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is just not the right story.

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I mean, I can't stop thinking about the

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I think one thing that many people, particularly the mainstream media

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aren't pulling into this is the national security strategy document that was written last year

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by the Trump administration.

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This is part of it, basically.

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I don want to kind of like sound like talking about conspiracy theory or anything else I really would like to move to the energy markets and talk about the economics of it But if you go back to the national security strategy that was released last November it focuses on energy dominance and AI dominance

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But you cannot have AI without energy.

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So everything boils down to energy dominance.

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and the only way you can have energy dominance is to have the resources.

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You don't have all the resources in the world,

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so you control the U.S.,

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then indirectly control Canada,

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and then directly or indirectly control Venezuela,

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and now you want to directly or indirectly control the energy sources

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in the other side of the world.

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Well, what's better than waterways?

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Look at what's happening in Iraq today.

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All of a sudden, the Russian company that was controlling one of the largest oil fields being kicked out.

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U.S. companies are taking over.

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Exxon, Mabo, and Chevron are returning to Iraq.

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Here's the problem.

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They already left Iraq.

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They are coming back to the same fields.

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They asked them, why did you leave?

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Because they said, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

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Okay, now you are back.

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But 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is still there.

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Nothing changed. So what changed in your attitude until you want to go back to Iraq now?

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And you look at other things. There are more questions than what we even can ask questions, and let alone answers.

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I'm going to give you one.

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Last week, Lloyd of London informed shippers that if they pay Iran to pass Hermes Strait,

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they will cancel insurance

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I mean this is

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kind of like the FBI

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or the State Department

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or someone else will do that

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why they are doing the job of a

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foreign government

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why insurance company is threatening them

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because people were saying

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oh they cancelled the insurance in the Gulf

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on March 1st

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simply because risk is very high

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well if it is about risk

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paying Iran reduces risk

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so why you cancel the insurance then

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so this is one of them

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then you add other things to the equation

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which a lot of things do not make

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any sense out of this

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we heard about

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the releases of the SPR

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and we can discuss the issues of SPR

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and what the conspiracy about the SPR etc

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But you look at the SPR releases and you look at the impact.

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Supposedly, Trump wanted lower gasoline prices.

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But releasing oil from the SPR does not have any impact on gasoline prices,

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simply because our refineries are running at maximum.

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And if they are running at maximum, they cannot use more crude anyway.

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So it doesn't matter.

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I heard some commentary on this. I mean, somebody was comparing Trump's draw, the SPR to Biden's.

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And the commentary I saw is that he was making a trade, because if you look at where the oil price was when Trump was draining it, he was trying to sell it, sell it high to lock in, I guess, some profits or something like that.

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No, they cannot. This is OK. I have I've written a lot about this and I have a long video on this kind of a timeless video.

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Let me explain something about the SPR that is very important.

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The release of Biden. Probably will end up the highlight of Biden presidency in a very positive way.

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Because if you go back and look at everything we've been told, even by analysts, it's all wrong.

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Why is it all wrong?

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Because they told us oil prices will go to $250 because of the sanctions on Russia.

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And we were going to, I was on your show, basically, and I said this at that time.

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And they said, we are going to lose up to 5 million barrels.

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Remember that?

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Because of the sanctions.

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And I said, none.

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And what happened?

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We did not lose any Russian oil.

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Yet prices increased to $120, $130.

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And Biden released 211 million barrels, 180 from the SPR that's the Biden release, plus the Congress mandated releases.

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There were 211.

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So if we did not lose the Russian oil and that 211 million being swallowed by the market, how do you explain that?

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Everything the analysts told us about basically was completely off, completely wrong.

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So how does that compare to Trump's draw on the SPR?

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I will explain in a minute.

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But what happened is we were coming off the lockdowns and the demand was the increase in demand was massive So what happened in 2022 was a repeat of 2007 2008 where the demand outstripped supply

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regardless of what happened in Russia.

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We did not lose Russian oil.

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It was demand that was extremely strong.

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And therefore, the actions of Biden, and I'm being completely apolitical here.

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The actions of Biden basically at that time was one of the smartest moves of his presidency,

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because otherwise prices would have gone above $200 and then destroy the world economy, destroy the U.S. economy.

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Now, you come to the Trump administration release.

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On a daily basis, it is the largest release in history, so it's way higher than Biden.

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So in total, Biden release is larger, but it's been done over a long period of time.

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With Trump, it's smaller in total, but on a daily basis, it's larger.

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And it has tremendous impact on the market simply because the amount is very large.

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The confusion we've gotten basically was about products versus crude.

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And that is really one of the main problems we have today.

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Throughout this crisis, after the initial period, let's say, so we start in April instead of starting in March,

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The crisis in the energy market was in the products, not in crude.

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So we have serious problems in the product market.

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And for your audience, I used this analogy before, and I'm going to use it again here.

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I'm going to explain what happened in the diesel market, and you can apply it to any other market,

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but diesel because we still have diesel crisis until today, and that's why I want to explain it to people.

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00:17:25,649 --> 00:17:41,769
So what happened in the initial period is after the insurance was canceled and ships were not able to leave, and then we started all those problems and the claims of blockades and the U.S. blockades, et cetera, we have three major refineries in the Gulf.

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00:17:42,409 --> 00:17:45,769
One in Kuwait, one in the UAE, and one in Saudi Arabia.

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None of them was able to export anything.

233
00:17:49,008 --> 00:17:50,748
So we lost their products.

234
00:17:51,748 --> 00:17:53,769
And that created panic in the market.

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00:17:53,769 --> 00:18:00,488
The problem is these are massive, some of the biggest refineries in the world, and we lost that.

236
00:18:01,849 --> 00:18:04,769
And the panic basically kind of took hold.

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00:18:05,369 --> 00:18:13,289
As a result, governments around the world panicked, and they banned exports of petroleum products for fear of shortages.

238
00:18:14,688 --> 00:18:16,948
The method differed from country to country.

239
00:18:17,208 --> 00:18:20,448
So China, for example, it was outright ban.

240
00:18:21,488 --> 00:18:22,769
No export, period.

241
00:18:23,769 --> 00:18:31,629
And this is one of the reasons why it led to their decline in imports, by the way, because now they don't need to import to re-export.

242
00:18:32,649 --> 00:18:49,429
Anyway, India imposed taxes, heavy taxes, and South Korea put a minimum, said as long as you meet this minimum, you can export above that or maximum, whatever you want to call it.

243
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So we started losing diesel from around the world as a result.

244
00:18:55,708 --> 00:18:56,829
So we have the first effect.

245
00:18:57,089 --> 00:18:58,968
Then we have the secondary effect as a result.

246
00:18:59,809 --> 00:19:02,008
Here, diesel prices start going up.

247
00:19:02,248 --> 00:19:04,069
Again, this applies to other products too.

248
00:19:04,429 --> 00:19:05,369
This is just an example.

249
00:19:06,409 --> 00:19:12,169
If you are a trader and physically you own diesel or crude or gasoline or just fuel or anything else,

250
00:19:12,169 --> 00:19:15,748
and you know prices are going to go up next week,

251
00:19:15,748 --> 00:19:21,609
and the margin between this week and next week is way higher than the cost of storage.

252
00:19:22,448 --> 00:19:23,329
Will you store?

253
00:19:24,549 --> 00:19:24,829
Sure.

254
00:19:26,069 --> 00:19:27,508
So hoarding basically started.

255
00:19:28,369 --> 00:19:34,448
So that made the situation even worse because of this.

256
00:19:35,089 --> 00:19:40,688
So because of these situations now, we have people panicking because they want the diesel.

257
00:19:40,688 --> 00:19:49,809
So India was, and this is a true example, India was selling a shipment of diesel to South Africa.

258
00:19:50,248 --> 00:19:57,228
The shipment was around East Africa, around Tanzania, Madhashkar, and someone in Singapore bought it.

259
00:19:58,188 --> 00:19:59,968
Of course, they paid the higher price.

260
00:20:00,649 --> 00:20:01,829
So the ship got diverted.

261
00:20:02,529 --> 00:20:03,728
Now it's going to Singapore.

262
00:20:04,609 --> 00:20:05,849
Someone in China panicked.

263
00:20:06,409 --> 00:20:09,748
Now they bought the same shipment and redirected it from Singapore to China.

264
00:20:10,248 --> 00:20:13,309
On the way to China, a Japanese company panicked.

265
00:20:13,688 --> 00:20:15,169
Now they took it to Japan.

266
00:20:16,049 --> 00:20:19,809
But that shipment should have been delivered to South Africa a week ago.

267
00:20:20,448 --> 00:20:22,309
Now, two weeks later, it's still in the ocean.

268
00:20:23,748 --> 00:20:26,669
Now, take one ship and multiply it by hundreds, probably thousands.

269
00:20:27,789 --> 00:20:31,169
And you can see how the situation got exacerbated.

270
00:20:32,269 --> 00:20:39,069
As if this is not enough, we have Zelensky basically taking his time bombing the Russian refineries

271
00:20:39,069 --> 00:20:42,109
and bombing the ships and the outlets and all the stuff.

272
00:20:42,829 --> 00:20:49,968
And he literally turned Russia into an importing company.

273
00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:56,911
country instead of exporting. So in a sense, we did not only lose the gasoline out of Russia.

274
00:20:57,371 --> 00:21:01,611
Russia now is taking the gasoline out of the market out of India that's supposed to go to

275
00:21:01,611 --> 00:21:10,591
Singapore. So you put all of those together, you can see the impact. But what made the situation

276
00:21:10,591 --> 00:21:18,511
really scary right now is we have what I call right now the four seas crisis.

277
00:21:19,631 --> 00:21:21,691
Until last week, it was the three seas.

278
00:21:22,151 --> 00:21:24,451
Now, after the attack on Egypt, it's the four seas.

279
00:21:24,551 --> 00:21:29,971
So we have the Gulf, we have the Red Sea, we have the Black Sea, and we have the Mediterranean Sea.

280
00:21:30,451 --> 00:21:32,051
We have problems in all of them.

281
00:21:32,691 --> 00:21:40,251
And the question that needs to be answered is, now Kazakhstan exports stopped for the third time this month.

282
00:21:40,591 --> 00:21:46,331
why Ukraine is halting the exports of Kazakhstan.

283
00:21:47,611 --> 00:21:50,491
Seriously, why the Trump administration is not saying a single word?

284
00:21:50,751 --> 00:21:53,611
We lost 1.4 million barrels a day.

285
00:21:54,391 --> 00:21:55,371
1.4 million.

286
00:21:56,231 --> 00:22:01,851
During crisis, when Babel Mendeb is semi-closed and Hormuz is semi-closed,

287
00:22:02,391 --> 00:22:06,751
and we lost 1.4 million, not a single senator, not a single congressman said anything.

288
00:22:07,351 --> 00:22:10,511
And everyone is complaining about gasoline prices and diesel prices.

289
00:22:10,591 --> 00:22:23,291
So what the situation is really kind of once you start looking at it in a different way, you try to kind of like ask questions, say, OK, what is really going on?

290
00:22:23,391 --> 00:22:26,491
Why Zelensky is doing this over and over and over?

291
00:22:27,691 --> 00:22:34,971
You look at the media and the big accounts on Twitter and other social media accounts, they've been fooling us all along.

292
00:22:35,811 --> 00:22:38,211
Whether intentionally or out of ignorance.

293
00:22:39,171 --> 00:22:42,931
So the Saudi refinery in Jazan was hit.

294
00:22:43,631 --> 00:22:45,671
There is no oil in Jazan, by the way.

295
00:22:45,931 --> 00:22:48,991
The whole area, the southwestern Saudi Arabia does not have any oil.

296
00:22:49,331 --> 00:22:51,951
All the oil, all the crude basically is far in the east.

297
00:22:52,491 --> 00:22:53,491
So this is the refinery.

298
00:22:54,171 --> 00:22:54,671
That's it.

299
00:22:55,831 --> 00:23:00,911
So we did not lose that much oil because the refinery was hit.

300
00:23:00,911 --> 00:23:04,751
That's mostly domestic, and there are some product exports out of it.

301
00:23:04,751 --> 00:23:12,251
And then two days later, the gig was hit, which is an essential part of Aramco in the eastern province.

302
00:23:12,251 --> 00:23:19,031
And they accused an Iraqi group that is part of the Iranian regime.

303
00:23:19,031 --> 00:23:23,211
And as a result, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia bombed them the following day.

304
00:23:24,211 --> 00:23:28,531
But the amount of oil lost from Saudi Arabia was very, very limited.

305
00:23:29,571 --> 00:23:33,211
And the reason why, because you cannot kill the horse twice.

306
00:23:33,671 --> 00:23:35,151
The Saudis cannot export from the east.

307
00:23:35,231 --> 00:23:36,391
They cannot export from the west.

308
00:23:36,771 --> 00:23:40,211
So whether their production goes up or down, it doesn't matter because they cannot export.

309
00:23:41,511 --> 00:23:46,371
During this time, we lost the 1.4 million barrels a day out of Kazakhstan.

310
00:23:46,871 --> 00:23:48,331
That was a real loss.

311
00:23:49,471 --> 00:23:53,151
But the media and social media accounts kept talking about Saudi Arabia,

312
00:23:53,151 --> 00:23:57,651
and they ignored Kazakhstan completely, where the real loss was.

313
00:23:58,431 --> 00:23:59,331
And the question is, why?

314
00:24:00,631 --> 00:24:01,311
Seriously, why?

315
00:24:01,311 --> 00:24:04,271
and those analysts basically why they are doing this.

316
00:24:04,991 --> 00:24:06,251
And during this period, of course,

317
00:24:06,951 --> 00:24:10,751
hundreds of videos were fake videos or old videos.

318
00:24:11,331 --> 00:24:13,551
So we have some big accounts basically,

319
00:24:14,591 --> 00:24:18,931
literally when Gig was bombed three days ago.

320
00:24:19,811 --> 00:24:23,551
I can guarantee you that some of those guys never heard of it before.

321
00:24:24,631 --> 00:24:26,991
And because of the use of AI,

322
00:24:27,791 --> 00:24:30,991
because some of those accounts depend heavily on AI in their postings,

323
00:24:31,311 --> 00:24:36,751
They went to AI and saved GIG, and the news is fresh.

324
00:24:37,751 --> 00:24:40,091
The AI has not collected the information yet.

325
00:24:40,531 --> 00:24:46,931
The only information exists from 2019 when GIG was hit, when we lost 5.5 million barrels a day.

326
00:24:46,931 --> 00:24:51,711
And those guys basically were too young at that time to even know it existed.

327
00:24:52,191 --> 00:24:54,471
So they literally pulled the 2019.

328
00:24:54,971 --> 00:24:57,711
They start posting it as if it happened today.

329
00:24:57,711 --> 00:25:01,671
with the pictures, with all the announcements, with everything.

330
00:25:01,851 --> 00:25:03,871
We lost 5.5 million barrels.

331
00:25:03,871 --> 00:25:05,631
That was from 2019.

332
00:25:07,251 --> 00:25:13,951
So we ended up with the four seas crisis with all this misinformation.

333
00:25:15,211 --> 00:25:19,471
And then we ended up with something I call the obsession crisis.

334
00:25:20,471 --> 00:25:25,691
And this is related to what you guys do on a daily basis, etc.

335
00:25:25,811 --> 00:25:27,391
Many of your followers basically do.

336
00:25:27,711 --> 00:25:33,931
We know that the first rule of investing is do not fall in love with your stock.

337
00:25:34,351 --> 00:25:37,171
Do not fall in love with whatever you are investing in.

338
00:25:38,131 --> 00:25:41,691
But obsession leads to that love.

339
00:25:43,031 --> 00:25:47,271
And we have people who get obsessed with the idea that all prices will go to $150.

340
00:25:47,991 --> 00:25:49,031
I'm talking about rent.

341
00:25:49,851 --> 00:25:53,871
And they went on and on and on and on and on.

342
00:25:53,871 --> 00:25:56,151
and it got so nasty

343
00:25:56,151 --> 00:26:10,288
that anyone will say no it not going to go to 150 became the enemy but it was the result of that obsession And that obsession led to literally taking the social media fake news

344
00:26:10,288 --> 00:26:17,028
and promoting it because it fits with the obsession of 150 or 120 oil.

345
00:26:17,888 --> 00:26:19,528
So in a sense, we got it from all sides.

346
00:26:19,628 --> 00:26:24,388
We have physical crisis on the ground and we have a mental crisis.

347
00:26:24,588 --> 00:26:25,488
What's up, Freaks?

348
00:26:25,488 --> 00:26:28,368
This episode is brought to you by Block's Bitcoin ecosystem.

349
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366
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unchained.com. From your perspective, what is the single most important physical constraint right

388
00:28:25,568 --> 00:28:31,208
now? It's like a fog of war, not only morally on the ground. For those who are interested,

389
00:28:32,208 --> 00:28:38,288
and I will send you the link, you can send it to them. There is a part of the newsletter that is

390
00:28:38,288 --> 00:28:43,988
out of the paywall, so they can read it without paying. And that sums up, it's a very short,

391
00:28:44,068 --> 00:28:49,208
but sums up the whole situation. We are in deep trouble. Any way you look at it,

392
00:28:49,208 --> 00:28:50,028
We are in deep trouble.

393
00:28:51,068 --> 00:28:57,728
So if you look at the Saudi economy, the Saudi numbers being published yesterday, it was minus 4.5%.

394
00:28:57,728 --> 00:29:01,168
In the first quarter, it was plus 3%.

395
00:29:01,168 --> 00:29:06,028
This is a country that was one of the most promising countries in the world, and it tanked.

396
00:29:07,448 --> 00:29:14,268
And Saudi Arabia, relative to other oil-producing countries, fared very well because they tried to diversify their economy,

397
00:29:14,388 --> 00:29:17,508
and they have pipelines to divert from east to west.

398
00:29:18,008 --> 00:29:22,308
But other countries, if you look at Iraq, you look at Kuwait, you look at Qatar, they have no other choice.

399
00:29:22,528 --> 00:29:23,008
They got stuck.

400
00:29:24,028 --> 00:29:29,848
So even at minus 4.5%, the Saudi performance was way better than others.

401
00:29:30,448 --> 00:29:32,948
But now you take it worldwide, you got to think the following.

402
00:29:33,548 --> 00:29:44,948
Those countries, whether you're talking about Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, those are countries, they are heavy purchasers.

403
00:29:45,808 --> 00:29:46,948
They are heavy consumers.

404
00:29:46,948 --> 00:29:48,108
They are heavy importers.

405
00:29:48,548 --> 00:29:53,608
They are the ones who import all kinds of things, whether from wheat to plains.

406
00:29:54,608 --> 00:29:59,208
And they are the ones who are supposed to make those massive investments in the United States.

407
00:29:59,448 --> 00:30:04,928
And they are the ones who are expected to be the largest donors to the poorer countries in the world.

408
00:30:05,288 --> 00:30:06,188
All of that is gone.

409
00:30:07,408 --> 00:30:08,448
All of that is gone.

410
00:30:08,728 --> 00:30:09,568
The consumption is gone.

411
00:30:09,648 --> 00:30:10,408
The investment is gone.

412
00:30:10,488 --> 00:30:11,128
The aid is gone.

413
00:30:12,108 --> 00:30:13,388
So what do you expect is going to happen?

414
00:30:13,968 --> 00:30:19,208
The Q2 data, the second quarter data, is not out yet.

415
00:30:19,708 --> 00:30:22,768
Only we have very few countries that came out with the data.

416
00:30:24,008 --> 00:30:29,648
And even if we get out of the data, if you think, and this is a message to the audience,

417
00:30:30,068 --> 00:30:35,608
if you really think that the oil prices and the oil market is heavily manipulated by the government

418
00:30:35,608 --> 00:30:39,148
and by the Trump administration, if you really believe it,

419
00:30:39,348 --> 00:30:43,308
then you must believe that the economic data is manipulated too.

420
00:30:44,388 --> 00:30:45,108
It's just logical.

421
00:30:46,548 --> 00:30:46,708
Okay?

422
00:30:47,008 --> 00:30:51,408
I believe when it comes to the oil market that, yeah, there is some manipulation,

423
00:30:51,688 --> 00:30:56,568
but based on evidence for the last hundreds of years, basically,

424
00:30:56,788 --> 00:31:00,128
and there are many theories, there are books and articles on this,

425
00:31:00,528 --> 00:31:04,228
you can manipulate the market or cheat the market twice, three times, and that's it.

426
00:31:04,228 --> 00:31:07,228
And then the market figure it out, and then you lose that edge.

427
00:31:08,788 --> 00:31:19,944
And even OPEC basically realized this long ago That why they became very innovative in the way they make their announcements Because once they are discovered people will know what the game is

428
00:31:20,344 --> 00:31:21,564
So they became very innovative.

429
00:31:21,984 --> 00:31:25,644
And to think that the Trump administration is repeating the same thing again and again and again,

430
00:31:25,644 --> 00:31:29,584
and you are being fooled again and again and again, it is your problem, not Trump's problem.

431
00:31:30,764 --> 00:31:32,264
That tells you it's not.

432
00:31:32,724 --> 00:31:34,484
There is some manipulation in the market.

433
00:31:34,784 --> 00:31:35,824
That's absolutely correct.

434
00:31:36,224 --> 00:31:38,524
But we do have some structural issues.

435
00:31:38,524 --> 00:31:43,404
We have major decline in demand and we have demand destruction.

436
00:31:44,624 --> 00:32:01,264
Because one of the problems when we talk about that obsession that we talked about earlier, we still have today, until today, we have analysts, well-known names, who think that oil prices have not increased to mask the crisis.

437
00:32:01,264 --> 00:32:02,884
And that is absolutely not correct.

438
00:32:03,764 --> 00:32:06,944
Because if you look at prices in March,

439
00:32:08,124 --> 00:32:11,404
medium sour crude in Asia was sold above $170.

440
00:32:12,024 --> 00:32:12,904
That was the record.

441
00:32:13,444 --> 00:32:16,324
And we have some shipments being sold close to $200.

442
00:32:17,164 --> 00:32:18,984
And the damage came from there.

443
00:32:19,444 --> 00:32:21,004
You are living in the United States or Europe,

444
00:32:21,084 --> 00:32:22,264
probably you are not feeling it.

445
00:32:22,344 --> 00:32:23,924
But in Asia, they felt it.

446
00:32:24,344 --> 00:32:27,424
When China stopped importing 6 million barrels a day,

447
00:32:27,724 --> 00:32:29,844
they did because prices were $170.

448
00:32:29,844 --> 00:32:34,224
and even when they declined, they declined to $155

449
00:32:34,224 --> 00:32:35,424
and they stayed there for a while

450
00:32:35,424 --> 00:32:40,384
and people are still saying, well, WTI is $95 only

451
00:32:40,384 --> 00:32:41,524
that's absolutely correct

452
00:32:41,524 --> 00:32:44,344
but you are looking at the wrong marker

453
00:32:44,344 --> 00:32:45,904
you are looking at the wrong market

454
00:32:45,904 --> 00:32:50,044
they don't use WTI in Asia, WTI is for North America

455
00:32:50,044 --> 00:32:53,304
you want to look at the prices in Asia, you look at Dubai and Oman

456
00:32:53,304 --> 00:32:56,024
and that was one of the problems

457
00:32:56,024 --> 00:32:59,444
so what happened is, those countries basically

458
00:32:59,444 --> 00:33:02,844
and refiners reacted to those extreme

459
00:33:02,844 --> 00:33:06,564
prices. But that's not the only story.

460
00:33:07,424 --> 00:33:11,564
You look at what happened in Japan. The Japanese yen, as you know,

461
00:33:11,704 --> 00:33:15,424
collapsed. So oil prices in the end

462
00:33:15,424 --> 00:33:17,964
were the highest ever.

463
00:33:19,444 --> 00:33:23,004
And Japanese refiners are not going to buy that oil. There is no way they are going to buy

464
00:33:23,004 --> 00:33:27,684
at the highest price ever. That's why their inventories declined substantially

465
00:33:27,684 --> 00:33:32,104
because they would rather use their inventories than to pay the highest price ever.

466
00:33:33,284 --> 00:33:36,304
So I'm going to tell you, you've been in this market, you've been there for a while.

467
00:33:36,304 --> 00:33:40,944
How many times you heard about Japan basically having the highest prices ever?

468
00:33:42,104 --> 00:33:44,524
Quite a few, because they're heavily dependent on it, right?

469
00:33:45,384 --> 00:33:45,664
Sorry?

470
00:33:46,504 --> 00:33:48,324
They're heavily dependent on oil, right?

471
00:33:48,784 --> 00:33:52,544
No, no, I'm talking about Japan refiners paying the highest price ever.

472
00:33:52,844 --> 00:33:53,884
How many times you heard that?

473
00:33:54,384 --> 00:33:55,204
No, never.

474
00:33:55,204 --> 00:34:00,924
why but this is reality why the media why analysts are not talking about that

475
00:34:00,924 --> 00:34:07,964
so there are there is this obsession thing that oh we still need for prices to go up well if the

476
00:34:07,964 --> 00:34:13,364
damage already is already happening and it already happened because prices went up and japan basically

477
00:34:13,364 --> 00:34:21,144
was damaged you cannot kill the horse twice the horse already being killed you cannot kill it

478
00:34:21,144 --> 00:34:25,944
twice. That's it. It's not there. And if it's not there, then you cannot feed it. It's dead.

479
00:34:27,504 --> 00:34:33,564
So the demand destruction was so strong in Asia and parts of the world, like a higher price doesn't

480
00:34:33,564 --> 00:34:37,324
make sense because nobody's going to pay it. But even you look at the United States, look at the

481
00:34:37,324 --> 00:34:45,764
data that was released this morning. This morning, the decline in gasoline demand is almost 2.5%

482
00:34:45,764 --> 00:34:50,224
year over year and has nothing to do with EVs, by the way.

483
00:34:50,704 --> 00:34:52,164
It has nothing to do with EVs at all.

484
00:34:52,884 --> 00:34:54,744
And so how do you explain that?

485
00:34:54,824 --> 00:34:56,164
U.S. demand was going up.

486
00:34:56,984 --> 00:34:58,364
Now it's 2.5%.

487
00:34:58,364 --> 00:35:00,384
It was going up by 1.7%.

488
00:35:00,384 --> 00:35:03,524
So the difference is between 1.7 and 2.5.

489
00:35:03,824 --> 00:35:05,144
That difference is very large.

490
00:35:06,464 --> 00:35:10,004
So the damage is already happening even in the United States,

491
00:35:10,004 --> 00:35:12,264
but we still need more time to get the data.

492
00:35:13,024 --> 00:35:14,924
In other countries, you look at Pakistan,

493
00:35:14,924 --> 00:35:21,044
You look at Bangladesh, you look at Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa, Egypt.

494
00:35:21,564 --> 00:35:23,124
Those countries are completely devastated.

495
00:35:24,144 --> 00:35:25,244
And it's not only oil.

496
00:35:25,524 --> 00:35:27,104
Let's remember that.

497
00:35:27,664 --> 00:35:30,424
This is my cheating sheet here.

498
00:35:32,204 --> 00:35:32,444
Okay.

499
00:35:32,964 --> 00:35:36,784
So, Hermos rate is not only about oil.

500
00:35:37,804 --> 00:35:39,024
It's about helium.

501
00:35:39,664 --> 00:35:42,244
And you cannot make any computer chip without helium.

502
00:35:42,244 --> 00:35:46,504
It is about fertilizers and we cannot find food without fertilizers.

503
00:35:47,284 --> 00:35:50,664
It is about methanol and you cannot make biofuel without methanol.

504
00:35:51,104 --> 00:35:53,604
There are many products we cannot make without methanol.

505
00:35:54,744 --> 00:35:55,624
It's about aluminum.

506
00:35:55,804 --> 00:35:59,604
Aluminum price is basically set at record high right now as a result of that.

507
00:36:00,444 --> 00:36:01,604
So it's not only about that.

508
00:36:01,784 --> 00:36:08,204
And once you start adding those together and you see the massive increase in prices and costs and everything else,

509
00:36:08,904 --> 00:36:10,084
it's not only about energy.

510
00:36:10,084 --> 00:36:11,824
It's about everything else.

511
00:36:12,244 --> 00:36:18,244
It was my mistake because I was supposed to buy two laptops.

512
00:36:18,244 --> 00:36:38,740
And I kept delaying it and now prices going up All the high end computers basically went up And I on the morning show that I speak on every single morning I told them that there was a time when an air conditioning unit need to

513
00:36:38,740 --> 00:36:45,380
be changed, but I can't wait. But the moment the crisis happened, immediately I decided to change

514
00:36:45,380 --> 00:36:52,420
it. And the cost is about $20,000, by the way, because I know if I wait, the cost will go up.

515
00:36:52,500 --> 00:36:59,500
The same unit that I paid $20,000 at the beginning, that's only five months ago, now is $26,000.

516
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,200
And this is in the United States.

517
00:37:03,940 --> 00:37:12,360
So the problem and the crisis or what we've seen so far is only the tip of the iceberg.

518
00:37:12,940 --> 00:37:20,500
Yeah, well, I'm happy you brought that up, particularly fertilizer, because I had somebody in my DMs the other day.

519
00:37:20,500 --> 00:37:28,500
basically saying that they have a buddy that works at a fertilizer refinery in Louisiana and

520
00:37:28,500 --> 00:37:34,300
the workers there have gotten noticed that their hours are being reduced to 80%

521
00:37:34,300 --> 00:37:40,260
and he thinks it's basically like a extend and pretend before furloughs and

522
00:37:40,260 --> 00:37:48,440
layoffs come because they started importing fertilizer from Morocco because the input

523
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:54,840
cost here and the refineries in the u.s went from something like 400 to 1700 or something like that

524
00:37:56,200 --> 00:38:00,760
in addition basically we have a new problem that we covered in the daily energy report today

525
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:13,080
uh that banks are going to um support the building of 15 billion dollar um ai center south of dallas

526
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:21,360
and when we are talking about 15 billion dollar ai center the of course the energy consumption is

527
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:28,720
just beyond imagination and it's they are going to build their own gas fired power plant and the

528
00:38:28,720 --> 00:38:33,460
question that we raised is where that gas is going to come from and when we work this backwards

529
00:38:33,460 --> 00:38:41,240
we found out that there will be a time probably in in two to three year time when uslng is going

530
00:38:41,240 --> 00:38:46,100
to fight, literally fight with the data centers over gas. Freaks, look at me. I'm glowing. I've

531
00:38:46,100 --> 00:38:51,160
got like an angel's halo going around me. You know why that is? I feel good. I feel taken care of. I

532
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:55,460
feel blessed, healthy, happy. And that is because I'm a CrowdHealth member. My family and I have

533
00:38:55,460 --> 00:38:59,580
been CrowdHealth members for five years now, literally this month, five years ago, we joined

534
00:38:59,580 --> 00:39:03,800
CrowdHealth. We've had two babies. We've had multiple health events and we're never going

535
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:08,260
back to health insurance. CrowdHealth is crowdfunded healthcare. So you sign up for

536
00:39:08,260 --> 00:39:13,780
crowd health you pay a monthly fee you help out with other people's bills uh and it's significantly

537
00:39:13,780 --> 00:39:18,420
cheaper than health insurance we were on cobra it's a family of three when i when i left my last

538
00:39:18,420 --> 00:39:25,780
job before i went full-time to tftc went on the crowd health now as a family of five we pay uh i

539
00:39:25,780 --> 00:39:30,740
believe 700 a month it's significantly cheaper they're going to negotiate prices lower for you

540
00:39:30,740 --> 00:39:36,980
they've consistently negotiated healthcare prices as much as 50 60 80 percent in many cases they help

541
00:39:36,980 --> 00:39:41,700
out with babies. If you have a pregnancy, you pay the first $3,000 and the crowd covers the rest.

542
00:39:42,340 --> 00:39:47,320
If you have a regular health event, you pay $500 and the crowd pays the rest. Go to

543
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:52,320
joincrowdhealth.com. Sign up today. Use the code TFTC. Opt out of health insurance. I'm

544
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:57,580
uninsured baby and I love it. Use the code TFTC at joincrowdhealth.com and you'll get $99 a month

545
00:39:57,580 --> 00:40:01,820
for the first three months that you're on the crowd health platform in the community.

546
00:40:01,820 --> 00:40:06,600
You found sovereign money. Now find sovereign health and sovereign healthcare.

547
00:40:06,980 --> 00:40:10,120
All right, freaks, you know I don't take sponsor money from products I wouldn't use myself.

548
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:10,720
So listen up.

549
00:40:10,860 --> 00:40:15,280
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550
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551
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552
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553
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554
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555
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556
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557
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558
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559
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560
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561
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562
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563
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564
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If you've been stacking for years and need liquidity without triggering a taxable event,

565
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566
00:41:01,060 --> 00:41:03,620
Go to aven.com slash bitcoin.

567
00:41:03,620 --> 00:41:10,960
that's aven.com slash bitcoin check it out well this has been a common theme through our discussion

568
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:16,000
throughout the throughout the years you said uh you've been saying natural gas isn't a bridge to

569
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:22,380
the future it is the future it seems absolutely absolutely but now it's getting like what i as you

570
00:41:22,380 --> 00:41:30,620
know i've been bullish on on lng etc but whatever we have right now is is way above the expectations

571
00:41:30,620 --> 00:41:39,960
And one of the problems is once the cost goes up, everyone gets hurt because for LNG, you have only limited margin.

572
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:50,017
For the AI, the competition is so severe that if your cost, basically, you cannot manage your cost, you have a serious problem.

573
00:41:51,157 --> 00:41:54,077
And with AI, by the way, people are talking about solar and wind, etc.

574
00:41:54,377 --> 00:41:59,757
You cannot afford to lose power for one second, not even one second.

575
00:42:00,217 --> 00:42:07,697
So you need a reliable energy, and that's why they are moving toward nuclear and natural gas as a result of that.

576
00:42:08,077 --> 00:42:13,677
It's nice to have solar and wind next to you as redundancy basically becomes important.

577
00:42:14,197 --> 00:42:15,237
But you need those things.

578
00:42:15,237 --> 00:42:20,017
So if you look at all the data centers around the United States, all of them have backup.

579
00:42:21,217 --> 00:42:24,817
And the irony is all that backup is a diesel backup.

580
00:42:27,637 --> 00:42:28,557
So what does this mean?

581
00:42:28,617 --> 00:42:32,877
What are the next 30, 60, 90 days look like?

582
00:42:32,877 --> 00:42:37,977
what should we be hoping for in terms of any resolution?

583
00:42:38,977 --> 00:42:44,397
I really want people to read that paragraph, that long paragraph that I wrote,

584
00:42:44,697 --> 00:42:49,457
and it sounds gloomy and kind of very pessimistic view.

585
00:42:50,637 --> 00:42:56,537
And probably we have to go through that to get the better future that we are looking for.

586
00:42:56,997 --> 00:43:01,377
Otherwise, things the way they are in will drag on for a very long time,

587
00:43:01,377 --> 00:43:03,137
and this is not in the interest of anyone.

588
00:43:03,597 --> 00:43:04,777
Let's get it over with.

589
00:43:05,197 --> 00:43:08,617
Let's get the bad news and get it over with.

590
00:43:08,737 --> 00:43:12,597
And let's have that demand destruction and everything else until we move forward.

591
00:43:12,757 --> 00:43:16,817
Otherwise, it's going to be a very, very difficult situation.

592
00:43:17,697 --> 00:43:19,877
And something got to give.

593
00:43:20,037 --> 00:43:21,117
Things do not add up.

594
00:43:21,577 --> 00:43:24,597
So I'm going to give you another example on how things got to give.

595
00:43:24,837 --> 00:43:26,157
I don't know how much time we have left.

596
00:43:26,957 --> 00:43:27,997
You've played 20 minutes.

597
00:43:27,997 --> 00:43:35,317
As you know, the Saudis couldn't export their oil through Bab el-Mandeb on their own ships.

598
00:43:36,537 --> 00:43:41,857
So Saudi oil is going through Bab el-Mandeb, but on someone else's ships.

599
00:43:42,817 --> 00:43:46,997
And Saudis have one of the largest VLCC fleet in the world.

600
00:43:48,037 --> 00:43:53,797
And now the discussion is going toward, okay, how they are going to export it through the Swiss Canal.

601
00:43:54,877 --> 00:43:56,097
Here are the issues.

602
00:43:56,097 --> 00:44:04,157
If they want to export it through the Swiss Canal, the Swiss Canal cannot handle a fully loaded VLCC.

603
00:44:05,217 --> 00:44:06,857
So you've got to forget about that.

604
00:44:07,837 --> 00:44:14,037
They can send the ships that can take 700,000 barrels to a million 1.1.

605
00:44:14,917 --> 00:44:16,277
That can go through.

606
00:44:16,677 --> 00:44:19,197
But if you are talking about 2, 2.2, they cannot.

607
00:44:20,397 --> 00:44:22,477
Long time ago, they found a solution.

608
00:44:22,477 --> 00:44:29,277
The solution is, if you can imagine the map, you send the ships north in the Red Sea.

609
00:44:29,797 --> 00:44:30,877
You go to Egypt.

610
00:44:31,077 --> 00:44:35,097
Just before you reach the Swiss Canal, on the left, there are a couple of lakes there.

611
00:44:35,597 --> 00:44:38,557
On the left, there is a small town called Ayan al-Sukhna.

612
00:44:39,417 --> 00:44:42,997
Ayan al-Sukhna, they built a terminal there with storage facilities,

613
00:44:43,617 --> 00:44:47,837
and it's connected to the Mediterranean via a pipeline called Sumed.

614
00:44:48,137 --> 00:44:50,697
Sumed, that's the Waste Mediterranean Pipeline.

615
00:44:50,697 --> 00:45:00,897
And the pipeline, if you can imagine the map, it goes west, crosses the Nile, crosses Cairo, and then turn north and go to Alexandria.

616
00:45:01,577 --> 00:45:04,337
Next to Alexandria, there is a small town called Sidi Kray.

617
00:45:04,757 --> 00:45:09,397
They made the terminal there, and it has a storage facility of about 22 million boroughs.

618
00:45:10,477 --> 00:45:13,297
So those big ships basically would go historically.

619
00:45:13,837 --> 00:45:16,197
They used to go to Ayan Sakhna and load some.

620
00:45:16,197 --> 00:45:23,237
they will float and because of the shape of the ship now they can go through the Swiss Canal.

621
00:45:24,277 --> 00:45:29,197
But later on the Saudis basically kind of because of efficiency and better management everything else

622
00:45:29,197 --> 00:45:34,877
they learned I don't even have to send all of them at all. I can just unload everything in

623
00:45:34,877 --> 00:45:41,917
and send it via pipeline because the pipeline capacity is 2.5 million barrels a day and I can

624
00:45:41,917 --> 00:45:45,437
send it to the other side, ships can come from the other side and load.

625
00:45:45,977 --> 00:45:50,037
I don't have to go through the Swiss Canal and pay for it and all that stuff.

626
00:45:51,077 --> 00:45:56,917
So the question now is, can Saudi Arabia export 6 million barrels a day, which is the amount

627
00:45:56,917 --> 00:46:05,057
of export they had before, through this method, both Swiss Canal and Sumit pipeline, to compensate

628
00:46:05,057 --> 00:46:07,977
for the losses of Hermes and Babelmende?

629
00:46:08,537 --> 00:46:11,157
And the answer is, yes, they can.

630
00:46:11,157 --> 00:46:15,297
And you can work the math, you can work the capacities, everything else.

631
00:46:16,177 --> 00:46:17,357
They literally can.

632
00:46:17,837 --> 00:46:18,897
That's the easy part.

633
00:46:20,077 --> 00:46:24,957
The problem is now ships, instead of going from Bab al-Mandeep directly to Asia,

634
00:46:25,357 --> 00:46:31,357
now they have to go from the Mediterranean all the way around Africa to go to Asia.

635
00:46:32,417 --> 00:46:38,697
Once you start playing the math, there will be a time when the Saudis wanted ships,

636
00:46:38,697 --> 00:46:41,697
but there are none because all of them in the ocean.

637
00:46:42,897 --> 00:46:45,497
Those are going to deliver and those who are returning.

638
00:46:46,657 --> 00:46:59,353
And therefore they have to stop exports and they have to stop production That the problem right now with the supposedly the new system if we are going to go with that new system So we do have a serious problem

639
00:47:00,253 --> 00:47:08,053
But with the hit to Egypt the day before yesterday for the LNG terminal and the two

640
00:47:08,053 --> 00:47:14,193
regasification terminals, this is very serious because the question is, whoever did that,

641
00:47:14,193 --> 00:47:18,433
did they really mean to head the LNG?

642
00:47:19,133 --> 00:47:21,733
Or that was a message about the Swiss Canal?

643
00:47:21,913 --> 00:47:26,153
Because that unit on the Mediterranean is very close to the Swiss Canal.

644
00:47:26,813 --> 00:47:27,413
Very close.

645
00:47:28,853 --> 00:47:31,653
So was that a message, look, we can close the Swiss Canal too?

646
00:47:32,613 --> 00:47:36,713
Or that was the LNG literally was intended?

647
00:47:36,873 --> 00:47:42,513
And of course, there are several suspicious leaderships in countries you can put there.

648
00:47:42,513 --> 00:47:58,793
But the issue here is, even if all the stars line up for the Saudis and the rest of the world, aside from the risk, we will reach a point where we have more oil and water and we don't have enough ships.

649
00:47:59,893 --> 00:48:01,073
And what is the problem?

650
00:48:01,073 --> 00:48:13,573
The problem is a large number of the ships that could be available are sanctioned because they carried in the past or they're still carrying the Iranian oil and the Russian oil.

651
00:48:15,013 --> 00:48:24,833
So in a sense, you look at all of this, it's kind of like almost a self-made crisis once you start expanding and looking at the details of it.

652
00:48:25,733 --> 00:48:30,433
The final issue here is when we talk about those sanctions,

653
00:48:31,113 --> 00:48:35,733
we got to remember that in the short run, China was prepared.

654
00:48:36,733 --> 00:48:41,213
And China built those massive inventories of almost everything.

655
00:48:41,413 --> 00:48:44,573
So China was doing very well throughout this period.

656
00:48:44,833 --> 00:48:51,873
The only way to hurt China is to drag whatever we are in right now until,

657
00:48:52,133 --> 00:48:53,673
let's say, a year from now.

658
00:48:54,833 --> 00:48:56,373
That's when you start hurting China.

659
00:48:56,813 --> 00:48:59,273
But by that time, the whole world would collapse.

660
00:49:00,773 --> 00:49:03,493
And probably the U.S. economy would collapse even before that happened.

661
00:49:04,713 --> 00:49:09,813
So there is a serious problem there that it's not only Hermos, it's not only Bab el-Mandeb,

662
00:49:09,813 --> 00:49:16,513
it's really this trade war and the issues with China and everything else that we got to look at.

663
00:49:17,453 --> 00:49:22,873
And when Trump visited China, the Chinese tried to be nice,

664
00:49:22,873 --> 00:49:26,213
So they imported LNG from the United States to please Trump.

665
00:49:26,993 --> 00:49:32,393
What they've done last week, the same shipment that arrived in China, they resold it at a higher price.

666
00:49:34,153 --> 00:49:45,493
Now, China's talking about trade routes to Europe, to the Arctic, too, as well, which gets to the question, how does all this impact the relationships between the U.S., Gulf states?

667
00:49:45,493 --> 00:49:47,513
I mean, Europe is obviously affected by this.

668
00:49:48,033 --> 00:49:49,873
I've been viewing this through the lens of,

669
00:49:50,873 --> 00:49:53,653
it seems like a big proxy war with China and this AI race.

670
00:49:54,513 --> 00:49:57,993
At this time, emotions are very raw.

671
00:49:59,633 --> 00:50:03,273
So when people in the Gulf basically are extremely angry,

672
00:50:04,053 --> 00:50:06,673
they're being hit, their economy's being hit,

673
00:50:07,173 --> 00:50:09,513
their factory's being hit, their refiner's being hit,

674
00:50:10,673 --> 00:50:13,373
and their emotions are very raw.

675
00:50:13,373 --> 00:50:21,053
against the Iranians and they are blaming Trump because supposedly they have those contracts with

676
00:50:21,053 --> 00:50:26,333
Trump and they paid a lot of money and it says to be protected and they were not protected.

677
00:50:27,773 --> 00:50:32,433
You look at countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc. They were not protected. So

678
00:50:32,433 --> 00:50:39,733
the emotions at this stage are very raw. That's why we see articles like one yesterday saying that

679
00:50:39,733 --> 00:50:41,893
Saudi Arabia literally should tilt

680
00:50:41,893 --> 00:50:42,833
toward the Chinese

681
00:50:42,833 --> 00:50:45,913
big time as a result of that.

682
00:50:45,993 --> 00:50:47,733
And that goes back to your old theory

683
00:50:47,733 --> 00:50:49,553
about the dollar and the Bitcoin

684
00:50:49,553 --> 00:50:51,673
and all the stuff. If you remember that,

685
00:50:51,733 --> 00:50:53,693
we did this, what, three years ago or something like this.

686
00:50:54,533 --> 00:50:54,973
So,

687
00:50:54,973 --> 00:50:56,873
if that happened,

688
00:50:56,973 --> 00:50:58,933
that is a crisis. But why the Saudis

689
00:50:58,933 --> 00:51:01,133
are even talking, or why some Saudis

690
00:51:01,133 --> 00:51:02,053
are talking about this?

691
00:51:02,733 --> 00:51:04,013
Because the emotions are very raw.

692
00:51:05,173 --> 00:51:06,573
And the Europeans are the same thing.

693
00:51:06,633 --> 00:51:08,933
They are suffering from the highest jet fuel

694
00:51:08,933 --> 00:51:16,613
prices ever diesel prices, energy prices, everything you just too expensive. And they

695
00:51:16,613 --> 00:51:20,833
blame the United States because from their point of view, if Trump and Netanyahu did

696
00:51:20,833 --> 00:51:26,473
not go to Iran would not we would not have this problem. And of course, from my point

697
00:51:26,473 --> 00:51:32,773
of view, our problem with Europe is not only the United States, our problem with Europe

698
00:51:32,773 --> 00:51:38,813
is its leadership. And if you look at what they've been doing, it's crazy. I mean,

699
00:51:38,813 --> 00:51:41,473
And crazy beyond imagination, I'm going to tell you a story.

700
00:51:42,713 --> 00:51:53,073
Just last week, Germany signed a contract with Canada to import LNG from Canada, from northwest Canada.

701
00:51:53,073 --> 00:52:15,829
So if you can imagine the map from that corner where Alaska meets with Canada that where they are building an LNG terminal So Germany wants to buy LNG from there Germany has all the choices from around the world that are way closer to Germany But yet they chose this one because it has the lowest CO2

702
00:52:15,829 --> 00:52:24,929
footprint per unit. Why? Because they use hydroelectric. They don't use fossil fuel.

703
00:52:24,929 --> 00:52:27,329
but it is fossil fuel

704
00:52:27,329 --> 00:52:29,389
okay

705
00:52:29,389 --> 00:52:30,789
so here is the issue

706
00:52:30,789 --> 00:52:33,509
how you are going to get that gas to

707
00:52:33,509 --> 00:52:34,569
Germany

708
00:52:34,569 --> 00:52:36,749
look at the map

709
00:52:36,749 --> 00:52:38,629
we are talking about

710
00:52:38,629 --> 00:52:41,629
northwestern Canada

711
00:52:41,629 --> 00:52:43,809
so that's almost like across the ocean

712
00:52:43,809 --> 00:52:44,429
from Japan

713
00:52:44,429 --> 00:52:47,749
okay how you are going to get that to Germany

714
00:52:47,749 --> 00:52:50,169
the only way to get it to Germany

715
00:52:50,169 --> 00:52:51,689
is to have an LNG carrier

716
00:52:51,689 --> 00:52:54,009
going from the north pole because this is close

717
00:52:54,009 --> 00:53:00,269
to the North Pole, going all the way south to the South Pole, going around South Africa,

718
00:53:00,929 --> 00:53:02,489
going back again to the North Pole.

719
00:53:03,929 --> 00:53:10,989
Imagine the footprint of the fuel that is used in the carrier just to get that LNG to Germany.

720
00:53:12,269 --> 00:53:13,889
So that's the first crazy story.

721
00:53:14,489 --> 00:53:18,609
The second crazy story is they said, oh, no, no, we are not going to do that.

722
00:53:19,069 --> 00:53:21,069
We'll be doing something else.

723
00:53:21,349 --> 00:53:22,049
What are you going to do?

724
00:53:22,049 --> 00:53:23,529
Oh, we are going to do swaps.

725
00:53:24,009 --> 00:53:25,709
What do you mean swabs?

726
00:53:26,049 --> 00:53:28,909
Oh, we take that LNG from Canada.

727
00:53:29,149 --> 00:53:31,989
We send it to nearby Japan and China.

728
00:53:33,169 --> 00:53:33,649
Okay.

729
00:53:34,029 --> 00:53:37,349
And then whatever Japan and China was going to get from the U.S.,

730
00:53:37,349 --> 00:53:40,249
from the Gulf, we get it from there.

731
00:53:40,389 --> 00:53:42,089
So we do this swap, so we save.

732
00:53:43,229 --> 00:53:44,409
Here is the crazy thing.

733
00:53:45,369 --> 00:53:48,509
By their own definition, U.S. gas is dirty

734
00:53:48,509 --> 00:53:51,889
because they chose the Canadian one because it had the lowest CO2.

735
00:53:51,889 --> 00:53:53,409
That's not the case for the U.S.

736
00:53:54,009 --> 00:53:56,289
And the second one is they are anti-fracking.

737
00:53:57,369 --> 00:53:59,989
And that gas came from shale where it's fracked.

738
00:54:01,129 --> 00:54:04,849
So why just go ahead and get it from the United States?

739
00:54:04,949 --> 00:54:05,489
It's cheaper.

740
00:54:05,649 --> 00:54:06,009
It's better.

741
00:54:06,229 --> 00:54:07,409
You are getting it anyway.

742
00:54:08,349 --> 00:54:10,269
Why you have to play like this?

743
00:54:11,509 --> 00:54:17,129
So you take this mentality of the European leaders and apply it to so many things.

744
00:54:17,689 --> 00:54:20,329
And you will find they are playing all those games like that.

745
00:54:20,949 --> 00:54:22,529
And they are destroying Europe.

746
00:54:22,529 --> 00:54:27,369
The deindustrialization of Germany basically has become so obvious right now.

747
00:54:27,789 --> 00:54:28,569
It's a big problem.

748
00:54:29,489 --> 00:54:33,489
Finally, I would like to end with the following.

749
00:54:34,589 --> 00:54:42,129
As we speak right now, we have 15, literally 15 events around the world.

750
00:54:43,049 --> 00:54:48,129
All of them are bullish for oil, for energy in general.

751
00:54:49,309 --> 00:54:50,089
15 events.

752
00:54:50,089 --> 00:54:56,349
We never seen something like this in history in terms of everything lining up this way.

753
00:54:57,609 --> 00:55:00,229
Now, that does not mean oil prices will go through the roof.

754
00:55:00,329 --> 00:55:03,929
No, it just means that the economies will self-destruct.

755
00:55:04,669 --> 00:55:05,689
That's what that means.

756
00:55:06,169 --> 00:55:08,169
So we have the four seas crisis.

757
00:55:08,969 --> 00:55:17,449
If you look at the Panama Canal, in addition to everything we've seen, we have the Panama Canal.

758
00:55:17,949 --> 00:55:22,569
So when we talk about the waterways, by the way, as you all know, Panama Canal is a waterway.

759
00:55:22,709 --> 00:55:23,849
Bab el-Mendeb is a waterway.

760
00:55:24,289 --> 00:55:28,369
Swiss Canal, which was nearby the incident that happened, that's a waterway.

761
00:55:28,729 --> 00:55:30,909
And then we have the Hermann Street, that is a waterway.

762
00:55:31,229 --> 00:55:34,149
The Black Sea, the only way to exit the Black Sea, that's a waterway.

763
00:55:34,629 --> 00:55:35,309
And guess what?

764
00:55:35,809 --> 00:55:38,689
You've seen the video of those Moroccans crossing to Spain?

765
00:55:40,269 --> 00:55:41,529
That's another waterway.

766
00:55:41,529 --> 00:55:48,909
And one of my colleagues asked me today whether this is just another event of a waterway rather than an immigration issue.

767
00:55:49,849 --> 00:55:54,529
So almost every waterway we know of basically is having problems.

768
00:55:54,969 --> 00:56:00,109
The Turkish waterways, well, Zelensky from time to time is bombing ships there.

769
00:56:01,149 --> 00:56:02,349
That's other waterways.

770
00:56:03,069 --> 00:56:11,289
And the Danish waterways there, they are thinking about blocking the Russian, the sanctioned Russian ships from passing.

771
00:56:11,529 --> 00:56:13,609
So that's another waterway.

772
00:56:14,669 --> 00:56:19,869
Anyway, so we have the Panama Canal because of low water level.

773
00:56:20,449 --> 00:56:22,189
So shipping is slowing down.

774
00:56:22,749 --> 00:56:28,389
Then we have the Rhine River where the water level is just like 30, 40 centimeters only.

775
00:56:28,909 --> 00:56:30,469
So barges cannot go through.

776
00:56:30,789 --> 00:56:34,009
They carry everything, including fuel and everything else.

777
00:56:34,009 --> 00:56:36,129
So we have problems there.

778
00:56:36,129 --> 00:56:46,609
In France, because of the heat wave, the temperature of the water in the rivers is a little bit high to cool the nuclear plants, so they shut some of them down.

779
00:56:47,369 --> 00:56:53,449
And now they are using oil instead to generate electricity.

780
00:56:54,869 --> 00:57:01,209
So you start looking at all those events worldwide, and you can see that where are we heading now?

781
00:57:01,209 --> 00:57:07,909
We have a serious problem in all those events basically taking place.

782
00:57:07,909 --> 00:57:26,566
We lost by the way Libyan production from two oil fields because of disputes among the tribes So that was another one And now we are coming into the refining maintenance season What next Hurricane season too Oh hurricane Yeah you right There was

783
00:57:26,566 --> 00:57:31,126
by the way, we lost some production because of the recent storm. What, Bertha? I think the name

784
00:57:31,126 --> 00:57:37,206
was Bertha. Yeah. And then it's not really oil and gas related, but then obviously Taiwan's an

785
00:57:37,206 --> 00:57:43,146
an island that is a waterway that can pop off at any moment.

786
00:57:44,146 --> 00:57:46,806
What would your advice to this administration be?

787
00:57:49,326 --> 00:57:55,506
I would rather just avoid talking about the politics here because it's too late.

788
00:57:55,586 --> 00:57:56,626
The damage already happened.

789
00:57:57,546 --> 00:58:02,946
And it seems that there is a lot of things that we don't know.

790
00:58:02,946 --> 00:58:13,366
But one issue when it comes to investment, I think, and I still think that LNG is going to be one of the best investments ever.

791
00:58:14,926 --> 00:58:19,026
And LNG names, especially American names, basically are going to pay off handsomely.

792
00:58:20,046 --> 00:58:24,446
And natural gas, basically, in the United States is going to go up and down.

793
00:58:24,526 --> 00:58:28,346
So it's kind of very dangerous trade and investment.

794
00:58:28,346 --> 00:58:33,846
But for LNG, I mean, it's kind of like the best choice.

795
00:58:34,226 --> 00:58:38,066
Anyway, you look at it even 10 years from now, 15 years from now.

796
00:58:38,546 --> 00:58:48,766
On the oil front, it is a very dangerous trade, not because of the politics of it, not because of manipulation,

797
00:58:49,426 --> 00:58:54,466
simply because of the demand destruction and the demand decline that happened.

798
00:58:54,466 --> 00:59:05,746
And as a result of this, everyone is looking at China and say, okay, only China was not affected that much by this crisis.

799
00:59:06,366 --> 00:59:10,566
So what we need to do to avoid this crisis again?

800
00:59:11,406 --> 00:59:21,166
So they are going to study China and they are going to find out that the success of China stems from the fact that they knew the information ahead of time and they prepared for it.

801
00:59:21,166 --> 00:59:24,726
So they linked energy security to national security.

802
00:59:25,286 --> 00:59:32,526
They linked energy sources to energy security, and therefore they made the immediate link between energy sources and national security.

803
00:59:33,266 --> 00:59:36,466
And therefore, cost does not matter anymore.

804
00:59:38,006 --> 00:59:44,446
So what will happen now is every country, including European countries, are going to look at their domestic sources.

805
00:59:44,446 --> 00:59:53,546
and in most cases they will say, okay, we have those climate change policies that failed on solar, wind, EVs, and batteries.

806
00:59:53,986 --> 00:59:58,026
Now we are not going to use the word or the expression climate change anymore.

807
00:59:58,406 --> 01:00:03,286
We are going to use national security because no one can argue with us when we say national security.

808
01:00:04,046 --> 01:00:06,446
So we are going to provide a lot of subsidies.

809
01:00:06,866 --> 01:00:08,486
We are going to give tax breaks.

810
01:00:08,486 --> 01:00:14,486
all this criticism about subsidies and tax breaks will disappear once you start talking about national security.

811
01:00:15,846 --> 01:00:25,466
And once you do that, you are going to see emphasis on solar, wind, storage, batteries, EVs.

812
01:00:25,926 --> 01:00:30,886
So one of the best investments probably will be in the future or in the coming years, basically,

813
01:00:30,986 --> 01:00:35,726
is storage batteries in addition to LNG because this is going to be very big no matter what.

814
01:00:35,906 --> 01:00:38,266
And governments are going to subsidize it.

815
01:00:38,486 --> 01:00:39,726
So it's going to happen.

816
01:00:40,606 --> 01:00:49,366
But that does not mean the emphasis on climate change and their national security does not mean that renewables are going to take over.

817
01:00:49,466 --> 01:00:50,506
It's exactly the opposite.

818
01:00:51,126 --> 01:00:53,226
Now countries basically are going to hold into coal.

819
01:00:53,986 --> 01:00:54,826
We are bullish on coal.

820
01:00:56,126 --> 01:00:59,106
Coal is going to stay with us for years to come after Hermes.

821
01:00:59,486 --> 01:01:01,426
So Hermes saved coal.

822
01:01:02,566 --> 01:01:05,406
And then there will be a lot of emphasis on natural gas.

823
01:01:05,406 --> 01:01:08,506
Natural gas, like we said before, is going to be the future.

824
01:01:08,686 --> 01:01:12,746
Hermes has sealed the case for natural gas and energy.

825
01:01:13,966 --> 01:01:18,086
So when it comes to energy, I think the road is very clear right now.

826
01:01:18,426 --> 01:01:21,206
The idea that we'll go back to the past is not going to happen.

827
01:01:21,786 --> 01:01:22,946
Hermes is not going to be the same.

828
01:01:23,526 --> 01:01:24,786
Barmendip is not going to be the same.

829
01:01:25,346 --> 01:01:27,806
And the whole oil industry is not going to be the same.

830
01:01:28,906 --> 01:01:29,886
It's a brave new world.

831
01:01:29,886 --> 01:01:37,646
And the issue of national security, basically, and that's where the fear is.

832
01:01:38,386 --> 01:01:52,086
Remember, there were a government that owned companies, oil companies, and then they privatized them, but they still own 49 percent or 20 percent or 10 percent or whatever.

833
01:01:52,946 --> 01:01:58,986
And I fear that there will be a time when we are going to see nationalization, even in the West.

834
01:01:58,986 --> 01:01:59,986
It's already happening.

835
01:01:59,986 --> 01:02:01,986
So we see more government control.

836
01:02:01,986 --> 01:02:03,986
It's already happening in AI.

837
01:02:03,986 --> 01:02:04,986
Until?

838
01:02:04,986 --> 01:02:05,986
Yes.

839
01:02:05,986 --> 01:02:06,986
Rare earth metals.

840
01:02:06,986 --> 01:02:11,986
So the fear is it might move to the energy sector.

841
01:02:11,986 --> 01:02:13,986
Where do you think they would start?

842
01:02:13,986 --> 01:02:16,986
Batteries or natural gas?

843
01:02:16,986 --> 01:02:20,986
I mean, you sort of already have it, right, with the renewable energy credits.

844
01:02:20,986 --> 01:02:21,986
I guess it's not really nationalization.

845
01:02:21,986 --> 01:02:24,986
They don't have equity stakes in these companies, but.

846
01:02:24,986 --> 01:02:29,946
In a sense, the SPR is the Strategic Petroleum Resilient

847
01:02:29,982 --> 01:02:34,982
but I don't think it's going to be enough because when it comes to energy

848
01:02:34,982 --> 01:02:39,982
dominance, those who created the concept of energy dominance,

849
01:02:39,982 --> 01:02:44,982
basically they missed one area and it is the most important area,

850
01:02:44,982 --> 01:02:49,982
which is refining. If the United States wants energy dominance,

851
01:02:49,982 --> 01:02:55,982
they need to increase refining capacity by at least 4 million barrels a day

852
01:02:55,982 --> 01:03:01,102
a day, above today, which means that probably we need at least three, four refineries, new

853
01:03:01,102 --> 01:03:08,222
refineries. And you need more because some of the refineries have to literally, they are so old that

854
01:03:08,222 --> 01:03:13,022
you need to get rid of them. So probably we need more than that. But for the energy dominance, you

855
01:03:13,022 --> 01:03:21,502
need more refining. And the refining sector did an incredible job in terms of financial performance

856
01:03:21,502 --> 01:03:29,022
a recent mass i mean just look at uh valero and all the other sisters just incredible performance

857
01:03:30,622 --> 01:03:36,382
and we wouldn't even talk about venezuela and if the u.s wants to take advantage of that oil it's uh

858
01:03:36,942 --> 01:03:43,502
ask me i mean what is the state i don't know last time we talked about guayana

859
01:03:44,142 --> 01:03:50,782
and the deposits obviously since we last talk maduro was taken out it seems like the u.s is

860
01:03:50,782 --> 01:03:55,262
for partly taking part in regime change there.

861
01:03:55,582 --> 01:03:56,222
I think there's...

862
01:03:56,222 --> 01:03:59,602
Since December, it was very clear,

863
01:03:59,722 --> 01:04:01,102
and we published reports on that,

864
01:04:01,182 --> 01:04:02,462
basically saying that, look,

865
01:04:03,622 --> 01:04:07,482
Venezuela, based on various pieces of information we have,

866
01:04:07,562 --> 01:04:10,162
they can increase production up to,

867
01:04:10,342 --> 01:04:14,062
or exports to 1.1, probably 1.2 million barrels a day,

868
01:04:14,102 --> 01:04:14,942
and then they stop,

869
01:04:15,322 --> 01:04:17,382
and then they need way more time

870
01:04:17,382 --> 01:04:19,382
to increase production and exports.

871
01:04:19,382 --> 01:04:32,842
And that's where we are right now. So they reached their maximum. And now we need that investment to take place for it to increase production. The problem is people have to realize that the problems are too many.

872
01:04:32,842 --> 01:04:39,222
And the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government have done a big, very big mistake.

873
01:04:39,842 --> 01:04:50,542
It's a historic mistake, which is the speed in which they changed the laws in Venezuela to allow the American companies to come back.

874
01:04:51,702 --> 01:05:00,582
That's a big mistake because any new Chavez, any new young Chavez basically can come back and say, look, this was under duress.

875
01:05:00,582 --> 01:05:11,142
The American army was in our capital and our leadership was threatened and therefore they had to change the laws and they did not consult the Venezuelan people, etc.

876
01:05:11,302 --> 01:05:14,542
And therefore, all of those basically are void.

877
01:05:15,542 --> 01:05:34,867
They should have taken their time literally to change those laws so they can be on kind of firm ground to make the changes Because if you look historically at what happened you can see it And not only in Venezuela basically in various countries

878
01:05:35,247 --> 01:05:35,887
the same thing.

879
01:05:36,267 --> 01:05:38,247
So I think they have not learned from history

880
01:05:38,247 --> 01:05:41,407
that they should have taken their time to change those laws.

881
01:05:41,867 --> 01:05:42,607
Trump was in hurry,

882
01:05:43,167 --> 01:05:45,567
and those guys in charge in Venezuela were in hurry,

883
01:05:46,107 --> 01:05:47,207
and they've done it quickly,

884
01:05:47,207 --> 01:05:49,247
and that is a very big mistake.

885
01:05:50,207 --> 01:05:52,307
To increase Venezuelan production

886
01:05:52,307 --> 01:05:54,467
by another one million barrels a day,

887
01:05:54,587 --> 01:06:10,747
They need three years. The problem is U.S. companies, even in the negotiations, are still having serious problems. Why? Because the change of the laws was so quick, there is a kind of mismatch between certain laws and those laws.

888
01:06:10,747 --> 01:06:13,667
Just to give you an idea on how the mismatch happened.

889
01:06:14,227 --> 01:06:28,067
Remember when Trump allowed Iran, what that was a month and a half ago, when he removed the sanctions or suspended the sanctions on Iran, and he said Iran can sell its oil freely and for U.S. dollars?

890
01:06:29,587 --> 01:06:30,147
Okay.

891
01:06:30,727 --> 01:06:32,427
Well, it did not work out.

892
01:06:33,027 --> 01:06:38,287
Iran did not sell a single drop of oil to any country except China.

893
01:06:38,287 --> 01:06:44,607
despite that. Why? Because the Trump administration missed two things.

894
01:06:45,787 --> 01:06:49,807
First, to deliver that oil, you deliver it on ships.

895
01:06:50,707 --> 01:06:52,967
And those ships were sanctioned individually.

896
01:06:54,087 --> 01:06:57,227
So no country is going to allow those ships to come in no matter what.

897
01:06:58,347 --> 01:07:04,187
So they kind of ease the sanctions on one side,

898
01:07:04,187 --> 01:07:10,067
but when it comes down to practical things on the ground, it did not happen.

899
01:07:10,667 --> 01:07:14,007
And then Iran is still out of the SWIFT system.

900
01:07:14,307 --> 01:07:15,387
So how are you going to pay them?

901
01:07:15,447 --> 01:07:17,247
And the Iranians said, if you're not going to pay me cash,

902
01:07:17,467 --> 01:07:18,667
I'm not going to take anything from you.

903
01:07:19,227 --> 01:07:20,387
I'm not going to deal with you.

904
01:07:21,567 --> 01:07:24,867
So you take this idea of conflict between the policies,

905
01:07:25,387 --> 01:07:30,047
you have Trump easing the sanctions, but all the other laws are still there.

906
01:07:30,447 --> 01:07:32,307
So easing the sanctions meant nothing.

907
01:07:32,307 --> 01:07:34,847
We have the same problem in Venezuela now.

908
01:07:35,347 --> 01:07:42,847
They changed the laws here, but we still have many things here, here and here, that do not work to achieve that objective.

909
01:07:43,327 --> 01:07:45,967
So companies are still struggling.

910
01:07:46,667 --> 01:07:53,227
The other thing is because of what's been happening in the last 15 years or so, think about it this way.

911
01:07:54,667 --> 01:08:00,247
The cream of the crop of Venezuelan engineers left the country long ago.

912
01:08:00,247 --> 01:08:02,587
to work where?

913
01:08:03,387 --> 01:08:10,147
To work in Aramco and Adnok and BP and NE and Total around the world.

914
01:08:11,587 --> 01:08:12,147
And guess what?

915
01:08:12,667 --> 01:08:15,407
Their salaries are international salaries.

916
01:08:16,527 --> 01:08:18,347
So they got paid handsomely.

917
01:08:19,627 --> 01:08:35,352
Those guys are not going to go from let say a year to or There is no way which means that you have to pay them the same international salary to bring them back

918
01:08:35,352 --> 01:08:38,532
And that changes the calculus because they kept telling us

919
01:08:38,532 --> 01:08:41,232
it's so cheap, it's so cheap, it's so cheap.

920
01:08:41,232 --> 01:08:46,152
But if the cost is going up, that changes the calculus.

921
01:08:46,152 --> 01:08:47,592
And this is one of the problems.

922
01:08:47,592 --> 01:08:50,412
Otherwise, they have to bring the American engineers.

923
01:08:50,412 --> 01:08:52,752
And the American engineers are the most expensive engineers

924
01:08:52,752 --> 01:08:53,952
in the world.

925
01:08:54,192 --> 01:09:00,652
So they have all kinds of problems right now, and they can be solved on the margin.

926
01:09:02,032 --> 01:09:10,612
But in terms of politics and political instability, I think Venezuela is still an explosive kick,

927
01:09:11,152 --> 01:09:13,132
and we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow.

928
01:09:13,132 --> 01:09:23,292
And the reason why, because the actual Venezuelans on the street have not benefited from the change that happened until today.

929
01:09:24,192 --> 01:09:27,112
They haven't seen it, and they need to see it to believe in it.

930
01:09:28,472 --> 01:09:31,932
A lot going on all over the world.

931
01:09:32,532 --> 01:09:33,232
Man, I'm sorry.

932
01:09:33,432 --> 01:09:34,632
I have bad news today.

933
01:09:34,712 --> 01:09:35,532
It's all bad news.

934
01:09:35,632 --> 01:09:37,032
So I don't know what to say.

935
01:09:37,632 --> 01:09:43,692
No, it makes you, I mean, going back to national security strategy, I think, yes, energy dominance was a theme.

936
01:09:43,692 --> 01:09:52,332
But the other big theme in that was like, hey, we're going to stop expanding our military excursions throughout the rest of the world and try to pack it in, focus on the Western hemisphere.

937
01:09:52,332 --> 01:09:54,812
and it seems like almost immediately,

938
01:09:55,072 --> 01:09:55,652
I mean, obviously,

939
01:09:56,252 --> 01:09:58,392
when Maduro was taken out overnight,

940
01:09:58,692 --> 01:09:59,912
it was very odd how it happened.

941
01:10:00,432 --> 01:10:02,352
Thank God it was very swift and quick.

942
01:10:02,452 --> 01:10:04,472
There's no ground war.

943
01:10:05,032 --> 01:10:05,532
I think everybody's like,

944
01:10:05,592 --> 01:10:06,552
okay, this makes a little sense.

945
01:10:06,592 --> 01:10:07,512
But then when Iran started,

946
01:10:07,612 --> 01:10:08,152
it's like, wait a second,

947
01:10:08,212 --> 01:10:09,212
you just went back on.

948
01:10:09,992 --> 01:10:11,472
Everything you said was the strategy.

949
01:10:11,652 --> 01:10:12,752
No more Middle Eastern wars.

950
01:10:12,872 --> 01:10:15,032
And you literally start one three months later.

951
01:10:16,712 --> 01:10:19,072
One of the criticisms that's been pointed out

952
01:10:19,072 --> 01:10:20,732
against what I've been saying,

953
01:10:20,792 --> 01:10:21,932
basically is saying that

954
01:10:21,932 --> 01:10:27,292
those plans are too complex for President Trump and his team.

955
01:10:28,412 --> 01:10:32,312
In a sense, they don't think highly of them in terms of being smart,

956
01:10:32,772 --> 01:10:34,612
and therefore I am completely wrong.

957
01:10:35,612 --> 01:10:38,032
I have no problem, and I hope I am wrong,

958
01:10:38,132 --> 01:10:40,112
because if I am wrong, that means things are better.

959
01:10:42,332 --> 01:10:45,912
But they have to realize that these plans,

960
01:10:46,672 --> 01:10:48,672
being constructed over a long period of time,

961
01:10:49,192 --> 01:10:50,372
way before Trump,

962
01:10:50,372 --> 01:10:57,372
And Trump and his team basically just executed the plan, and probably they executed it badly.

963
01:10:57,712 --> 01:11:02,052
It does not mean that all these plans that we see today are coming out of Trump.

964
01:11:03,192 --> 01:11:15,672
So the issue here is whether you like it or not, if you look at how the United States took over 30% of the AULNG from 0% to 30%,

965
01:11:15,672 --> 01:11:19,472
if you think that just happened, no, it did not happen just like that.

966
01:11:19,472 --> 01:11:20,472
They were planned.

967
01:11:20,472 --> 01:11:21,472
They were planned.

968
01:11:21,472 --> 01:11:34,737
They put those plans and we have construction and we have things and we have companies and we have government involved and we have President Trump and President Biden going around basically marketing this LNG etc

969
01:11:35,057 --> 01:11:37,177
This did not happen overnight.

970
01:11:38,557 --> 01:11:40,417
These things happened because of a plan.

971
01:11:41,617 --> 01:11:50,277
So to think what, because they are trying to sell us the idea that, oh, Netanyahu came into Trump and said we are going to attack Iran and Trump just got convinced.

972
01:11:50,277 --> 01:11:54,837
and all of a sudden we have all the US Navy overnight there and just happen.

973
01:11:55,877 --> 01:11:57,637
This is naive.

974
01:11:57,637 --> 01:12:01,077
Just to put those ships there takes months to prepare.

975
01:12:02,437 --> 01:12:07,717
So it cannot be just the way they are describing it as just, you know, things just happen.

976
01:12:07,717 --> 01:12:09,237
There is more to the story than that.

977
01:12:09,237 --> 01:12:13,557
And then you all have the variable of like drone warfare, asymmetric drone warfare,

978
01:12:13,557 --> 01:12:18,037
really throwing a wrench in conventional naval battles as well.

979
01:12:18,037 --> 01:12:28,137
So that adds a layer of chaos and unpredictability to the mix that you'd like to think people would have the foresight to imagine.

980
01:12:28,137 --> 01:12:38,877
But I mean, when there's the drones going from Ukraine to Russia or Iran to Gulf states, I think it's pretty clear that these drones are having an asymmetric effect.

981
01:12:40,297 --> 01:12:41,217
Absolutely. Absolutely.

982
01:12:42,097 --> 01:12:46,037
Well, Nas, it's always a pleasure. I know it's Friday afternoon for both of us.

983
01:12:46,457 --> 01:12:46,777
Thank you. Thank you.

984
01:12:46,777 --> 01:12:48,197
I appreciate you.

985
01:12:49,237 --> 01:12:50,077
Thank you.

986
01:12:50,137 --> 01:12:51,417
And I apologize to the audience.

987
01:12:51,577 --> 01:13:00,117
I don't have better news to tell you, but just be careful out there and just focus on the real things.

988
01:13:00,257 --> 01:13:01,357
Don't be fooled by the media.

989
01:13:01,557 --> 01:13:04,757
Don't be fooled by this big account on social media, et cetera.

990
01:13:05,277 --> 01:13:08,557
And don't take my words for granted in any way.

991
01:13:08,737 --> 01:13:14,297
Take my words, basically, and judge them against everything else you hear because that's the way to go.

992
01:13:14,297 --> 01:13:20,017
If you just take things for granted and you have that obsession that I criticized in the beginning, you are going to lose money.

993
01:13:21,097 --> 01:13:23,657
So be careful and best of luck for all of you.

994
01:13:24,937 --> 01:13:26,097
Beware, Freaks. Peace and love.

995
01:13:26,437 --> 01:13:29,317
Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.

996
01:13:29,797 --> 01:13:33,357
If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode.

997
01:13:33,977 --> 01:13:37,737
If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.

998
01:13:37,817 --> 01:13:39,177
We're looking to get the word out there.

999
01:13:39,177 --> 01:13:46,217
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1000
01:13:46,217 --> 01:13:51,597
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1001
01:13:51,597 --> 01:13:57,717
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1002
01:13:57,717 --> 01:14:04,517
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1003
01:14:04,517 --> 01:14:10,457
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1004
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