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Mr. Long, oh, we meet here on yet another Friday evening.

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It seems to be our time of recording, choice of recording over the years.

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Like I was just telling you, I need you to pull me back from the edge.

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I'm doom scrolling a lot this week.

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We are.

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I don't know if you're reading my Twitter feed, but it's about 3 o'clock in the morning trying to take people off the edge and go, no, everything.

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It's as funny.

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It's good to see you, Marty.

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And yes, I do. I do like doing these on Friday afternoon with you.

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It's like we get an opportunity to sit down, kind of look at the week that was the last couple of weeks for us.

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You know, it's a good time to do this. And we're both tired after a long week.

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So it's like, yeah, man, like this, it's not going to be fireworks tonight.

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It's going to be, you know, that kind of thing. And which is a good thing.

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I do enough of those or I do enough of the firework, fire breathing Tom during the week.

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so um i i you know it's funny since this thing began um you know and again i'll back up for a

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minute in the lead up to it i was looking at it going at first i'm like is he just playing a game

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right and then i saw the like full two carrier strike groups and i thought about what he did

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in venezuela and the way he handled venezuela and i'm like no there's going to be an operation

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of some form or another here because um venezuela was very much targeted uh uh operation wasn't it

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you know apparently just an insanely efficient operation as well um and then right after that

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he goes to freaking davos and um all of that and you know the same weekend he's like what is he he

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said where's he's at davos yeah and he's giving them their speech and he's like you know he's

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taking on CJ and Jay and, and, and then G and, and Halesco and, you know,

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taking out El Mencho. I'm like, all right, it's March.

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Who's he going to take out next? And when you, you know,

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you know how I feel about this stuff,

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that this is all kind of art and parcel of the whole old money network,

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right. You have, you know,

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You have the middle layer of money, of basically imperial money flows or old colonial money flows.

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My wife just was driving up, and so the dogs were going crazy.

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But I think that's where we are.

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We have to realize that that's a very important part of this conversation that we just don't talk.

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Most people can't talk about because they don't have a frame of reference for it.

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And I do my best to try and make it understandable.

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Let's kind of break it down in three layers.

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You have the original, you know, when he first came into power, the first thing he did was cut off all the public money.

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So, hey, at least the American taxpayer isn't directly funding the NGOs that are destroying the country.

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OK, that's the easy part.

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He can just, you know, stroke the pen, all the land, take that down because he's the executive and he doesn't, you know, and he has that power.

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it's the next layer that's the hardest one for people to wrap their heads around,

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which is the organized crime, which is the system of money flow around the world,

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of being able to basically have the old colonial extraction system centered in City of London

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with outposts in places like Davos and Abu Dhabi and Hong Kong and Singapore and Vancouver

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and all these other places, right?

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That, you know, that's the illicit money.

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That's the money that runs around the world,

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trafficking children, trafficking drugs,

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you know, running protection rackets,

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pulling in, and now we get to find out.

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And we get highlighted for us.

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Insures all the global shipping around the world

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while the U.S. Navy is harassed to enforce it all.

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And somehow someone else is getting paid

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for the defense work that we're doing.

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Like when we stop as Americans,

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just stop and take a look at and think about what that is,

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that should drive us all crazy.

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When you really stop to think about it,

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it's like we go out and we spend a trillion dollars a year

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on the military.

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So however much money we spend on the Navy

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to police the world and make sure

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that global shipping runs relatively smoothly,

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the only pirates that are really left in the world are the ones that somehow are linked to

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all the old colonial system through a network of banks and and and old relationships that exist

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in iran venezuela dubai blah blah and hong kong mexico city like all around the world and you look

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around the world and you see the same thing every everywhere which is that that money cannot flow

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as Alex Greener likes to point out, without complicity from the Canadian, UK,

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some American banks.

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It can't happen because it's too much money.

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It has to move that way.

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Not only are they making money off of that,

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they're insuring the ships that we're defending.

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Now, let's stop for a second and think about what Lloyd's of London actually is.

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I've talked to people about this, and they're like,

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there are no actuaries at Lloyd's of London.

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there are no risk assessors at Lunds London.

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There's a bunch of guys, a bunch of limeys in there collecting, writing contracts.

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It's right across the Thames from GCHQ, otherwise known as MI6.

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So MI6 goes around the world, stirs up chaos around the world.

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Maybe with the help of the Mossad or Saudi intelligence,

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elements of the CIA refuse to say rogue elements of the CIA

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because the rogue elements of the CIA are the patriots, right?

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And, you know, creating chaos around the world,

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which raises the risk premium for everybody to actually do business around the world

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and who's getting paid for that.

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So they're on both sides of the trade.

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They're getting paid to run drugs and, you know, harass everybody and everything else.

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And they're getting paid on the insurance contracts on the other side.

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It's all big frigging shakedown operation.

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and American taxpayers are getting, frankly, fucked,

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coming, going, on the way in, on the way out,

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after they've left the party and after their kids are dead.

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Donald Trump's like, no, we're getting paid for that.

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So in the lead up to February 28th,

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or I guess it was after mid-life,

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March 1st, last February 28th,

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It came really obvious.

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If you take Trump and his word and just read and just listen to what he said in that eight-minute statement, he laid it all out pretty freaking clearly.

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And it's very consistent with everything he's been saying for years, which is Iran can't have a nuclear weapon because they're a bunch of crazy Persians or whatever they are.

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You call them Shia crazies or whatever.

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They're crazies of one form or another.

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Or maybe they're just another node of organized crime around the world.

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the Arabs like to talk out of both sides of their mouth because they're making money coming and going

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on the oil and the natural gas. They don't really care. You know, so everybody's like talking out

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of both sides of their mouth. The Israelis are, you know, are up in arms about everything because

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that's who they are. And maybe they have a good right to be. Maybe they don't. I don't really

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care. Like, I don't like Iran. I don't like the Israelis. I don't like the Saudis. I don't like

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the Qataris. I don't like any of these people. They're all shit, as far as I'm concerned. And

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And 90% of the time, we're shit too.

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But we have the opportunity because we're the ones with the big stick.

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That if we decide to use the big stick for our interests, whoa, we get the last three weeks.

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We've all been living our entire lives, especially my entire life.

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And I know your entire life because you're far younger than I am.

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That we've been living in a world where the United States keeps doing all this shit that's not in our own best interest.

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We don't even know what that looks like.

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We don't know what it looks like when our government actually acts in a purposeful, strategic manner in the interest of the United States.

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And so we've been so conditioned in thinking that we can't possibly be doing that because we never do that.

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We've got all this history.

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We've got all this DNA.

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We've got all this lived experience to say that they're not doing that.

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And then all of a sudden we're like, we don't know what to do with it when it's actually staring us in the face.

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We have to distrust it.

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That's what's happening, Marty.

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It's not hard.

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We're literally saying London doesn't get to pull the insurance vig.

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They don't get to control the pricing of oil around the world.

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They don't get to do this.

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They don't get to do that.

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They don't get to fund all the proxies.

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They don't get to play these games because London is at the center of Venezuela, Jalisco,

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Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, this one, all of it, and Iran, and Israel.

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and this is the hardest part that people have to realize is that they're on both sides of the

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trade in a lot of these conflicts they're they're fun and they're they're always like

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handing money and guns and whatnot and again when i say london it's a it's in in some ways

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it's a metaphor it's the system of the way the money flows and who benefits from the

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the way the money flows.

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That is what London represents.

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It all flows through City London and its subsidiaries

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because of the very special rules that it has,

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the carve-outs that it has in order to make money move that way,

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which it doesn't exist anywhere else on the planet,

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but it all happens to London that way

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and all the offshore banks and the Caymans and blah, blah, blah.

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So when you look at it from that perspective,

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What Trump had to do was at some point finally call the Iranians bluff and go, look, I see what you're doing.

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You've been told, just keep negotiating with Trump.

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He doesn't really want to start another war.

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He's vain.

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He's stupid.

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He doesn't think.

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Literally, listen to the people in Europe.

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Listen to the people in London.

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Listen to all of them.

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Listen to all of his critics.

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And some of them actually believe this nonsense.

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Others don't.

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Others are trying to gaslight you into believing he doesn't know what he's doing.

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But there are some that really do believe this.

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They really do believe that they have enough control and enough people and systems and institutions and bureaucrats and everything around the world that they can just believe him out over time.

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And then we'll get back to status quo after he's gone.

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And I'm sure that Iran was told, like, I'm sorry, the IRTC, Aragache, all these people, were all told the same damn thing.

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Just keep bleeding them out.

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So bleed them out for time.

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No different than Zelensky.

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At a certain point, when you look at the, and since the war has begun, and since the war has been prosecuted the way it's been prosecuted,

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you'll notice that the Iranians are negotiating over a war.

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they've lost the exact same way that Zelensky has been negotiating over where he's lost.

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Same thing. Why? Because he's got somebody else in his back pocket saying, don't worry about it.

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We're on top of this. We're going to do this. We're going to do this. We're going to do this.

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You just keep bleeding him out. And eventually Trump was like, no, fuck you now.

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And then because the Israelis are really good at what they do. Now, this is, again,

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don't hate the play. I hate the game. Like, right. The Israelis are good at this because

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they have to be. Like it or not, you don't have to like Israel to respect their ability to play

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the game. And because we saw, and I wouldn't have any of this in my head, I wouldn't have this

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perspective. I wouldn't have had this memetic lapse of the way I used to see the world if we

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didn't have the 12-day war last year. Because the 12-day war last year was the time when I had to

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finally go, are we really just that much better than everybody else? Is this all just been a bunch

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gaslighting by a bunch of Persians and Russians and Chinese and Indians and British and everybody

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else. They really aren't a paper tiger. And we are really that good. We didn't spend $850 billion

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a year on defense or whatever the hell we've been spending and get $50 billion worth of return on

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investment. We have the toys, folks. We have the men. We have the material. We have the personnel.

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We have the, all we needed was the political will and the organizational will in, from, from the Pentagon on down.

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Let those guys do what they do well.

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And I was talking to Joaquin Flores the other day.

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And I, and I was shocked.

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Like I, the 12 day war shocked the crap out of me.

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Right.

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And, uh, because my, I wanted to be conservative and I wanted to be generous to everybody I saw in the game.

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board. I wanted to say the reasonable position is the U.S. is lying about something. The Iranians

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are lying a little bit. The Russians are lying a little bit. The Chinese are lying. Everybody's

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overselling what they have a little bit. And then we just, I mean, the Israelis pulled off one of the

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most brilliant combined arms operations in military history on June 12th last year.

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Like it or not.

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I mean, with human intelligence on the ground, air, intelligence forces, ground forces, everything.

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The war was over before it started.

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So we already knew that we were capable of doing it.

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So Trump was going to go for the big kill shot, not on Iran, because this war is not about Iran.

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Iran is a network node.

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This is about the United States getting control over the system that it's a part of, and it has been funding to its own detriment for 80 years.

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That conversation, in the immortal words of Tyler Durden, is over.

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right that moment in fight club when edward norton's at top of the stairs and fire turns

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at the bottom of the stairs he's fighting with helena bottom carter he goes this conversation

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is is over done that's it now everybody understand what's happening oh that's what he's doing so if

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you don't think that he didn't know that the straits were going to get closer that iran wasn't

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going to do this nonsense i don't think they expected to be though so they've already said it

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We didn't expect to be this successful.

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And you knew they were successful because on day two, the Iranians were threatening to close the straits.

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I'm sure they were convinced that they were going to be able to stand up for a couple of weeks, inflict a tremendous amount of political and propaganda damage on the American military.

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That we were going to lose planes and lose dudes and have to defend this.

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right and that they were going to use that they didn't get that opportunity this war was over in

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the first 24 hours operationally strategically however you want to put it not operationally but

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strategically it was over the iranians were done it was just a matter of mopping everything up

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afterwards and i said as much on twitter like i'm the next day i'm like this war's over like if if

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they're not firing if they don't fire a thousand missiles tomorrow they're done oh they're gonna

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play possum and eventually three weeks from now we're going to see 3 000 okay fine you keep

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believing it keep believing that we've flown 15 000 sorties we've run out of things to kill

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and they're not the groundhog from caddyshack

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so like just to step in here there's a lot of sure sure the last three weeks just observing this

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I think there's three lenses through which I've been viewing this.

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It's like your lens, because we've been having these conversations for five or six years now.

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Five or six years.

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The lens of like the mainstream, which is evangelical Christians and Zionist Jews are trying to bring about the anti-Christians.

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And the Christian Zionists and all of them created by, again, City of London.

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You've got Kushner and all that.

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So you've got like this Israeli influence over the government.

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And then the third lens is like, are we just witnessing like Mad King?

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Like just hubris, like personal Trump, like wants to make a mark,

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wants to be the one to drop the nuke.

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And like I said, it's like hard to pull back from the edge.

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Like when I saw the city of London pulled the insurance and the government

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stepped up, I was like, Hey, that's a point in Tom's, Tom's lens.

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That's a point in Tom's lens.

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That's like all the, it's the only ones that matters.

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Cause I didn't think, I'll be honest with you.

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So like, I think I said, it was either on Saturday or Sunday.

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Their mouthpieces on Twitter started to give it away.

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There's that guy, Perara, who's the Sri Lankan guy that's in Australia that all of a sudden showed up.

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And he was like the Ian Carroll of MI6 Agile prop.

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He showed up like, I don't know, nine months ago.

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And then him and the other guy, like the other guy, Spencer Hockenough.

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They're both the city of London, in my mind.

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um i started calling him mr mouthpiece because you could read his stuff and it's all ai slot

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it's all ai written slop anyway but he you know you can see the first half bit is he's gotcha he's

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gotcha he's gotcha and then bodies were 90 degrees into like into la la land and i'm like

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okay hold on you take i'm gonna take this asshole apart but if you read him carefully he's telling

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you what their strategy is going to be and how they're going to do x y and z i've got all my

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people trained to like watch this stuff like i'm i'm sitting here monitoring my slack server all

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day long and i got a half a dozen guys going oh did you see this oh this is what they're going to

250
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do next and this is their next and i'm like this is their next narrative going on i think you're

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you're you're 80 right we're going to tweak it like this this and this i've i've been we've just

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been doing this like almost 24 7 now for three weeks and and it's just hilarious because you can

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predict what they're going to do next in real time and so i took him apart he he made the the point

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He said, oh, they're going to close the straits.

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London is going to pull their insurance.

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They're going to close the straits, and they're going to try and drive wedges between Trump and the Gulf Arab states, Omar and Bahrain, the others, and then go to the UN and try and make him into the bad guy.

257
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And then close the straits, and everybody's freaking out because oil's $300 a barrel.

258
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Mike didn't mention the insurance angle on it at all.

259
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He didn't say that.

260
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I said, oh, this is what he's saying they're going to do diplomatically?

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I'm like, no.

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Tomorrow, Lloyd's London is going to pull all the insurance contracts.

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And to the day, bingo, it happened.

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What I was surprised at was that Trump shows up on Taco Tuesday.

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And that's Taco Tuesday.

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Trump always chickens out.

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On Taco Tuesday, Trump turns around and goes,

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I've got a plan for insurance, shipping insurance.

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We're going to escort the ships.

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We don't have a lot of, we don't have all the details yet,

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but we're going to do this.

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I was expecting like a week, maybe 10 days.

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Now he goes 48 hours.

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Oh my God, he seems to completely control the situation.

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He led them into that trap, knowing full,

276
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and then once you saw him do that, you're like, whoa.

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Straits are closed.

278
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He wants the straits closed.

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Now he's going to use the straits to put the fork onto the Europeans.

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And Putin was right there.

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He had Trump's back immediately because he sends Besson out there to say,

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well, we're going to unsanction some Russian oil that's sitting in tankers.

283
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Russian's got like 40 million barrels or 100 million barrels.

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He sitting on tankers and ports and everything that on the ocean right unsanctioned so it can be sold anywhere as opposed to only being sold in the shadow of the quote shadow fleet and then putin comes around the next day and says

285
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right the later that day is this and i don't think we're going to sell any of that to the europeans

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game set match like i'm watching this going on this is like are you kidding me this is like they

287
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went into the back room you know the the nexus came i'm like i'm playing a game of dune the nexus

288
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comes up everybody we have a chance to negotiate make me make a new alliance like

289
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putting the drummer in the back room making a secret deal yeah we're all right now it's a

290
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you get the voice and i get the i get your power and you get this i don't know we'll go let's go

291
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take cart and let's go take siege table like you know that's the way i think of this stuff

292
00:21:29,958 --> 00:21:37,238
and you can see it in real time and i was like oh this is hilarious i mean it's not i mean it

293
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can go wrong there's all these tail risks that the israelis can go off half cocked and do something

294
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terrible and bubble a lot there's all sorts of little uh things and ways this could still go bad

295
00:21:46,358 --> 00:21:51,598
and yes iran may not have been dead at that point so but you're like in the you're in the probability

296
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field of this thing is probably 75 over and then five or six days into it you're like oh yeah

297
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like and then and i'm just i'm over like this not yet i'm over it like we're flying a-10 warthogs

298
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doing close assault in the straits, killing fast attack boats and guys sitting in, you know,

299
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I don't know, the guys sitting in the rocks along the straits, you know, they're blowing everything

300
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up, like flying A-10s for Christ's sake. Like, once you're flying A-10s, like there is no air,

301
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there is no air support. There is no anti-air support, you know, for the Iranians. They have

302
00:22:29,758 --> 00:22:33,618
no way to defend against that because the A-10 is, I mean, the Air Force has been trying to get rid

303
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the A-10 for 30 years.

304
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Dumbly, I might add.

305
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This is like one of the greatest

306
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fucking airplanes ever produced.

307
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But they want to keep replacing it

308
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because they can't keep up

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with modern anti-air systems.

310
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Yeah, they've got a point.

311
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But if you blow all that away,

312
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then the A-10s just come in

313
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and secure those out.

314
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Now you can bring troops in.

315
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You can do whatever the hell you want.

316
00:23:00,458 --> 00:23:01,858
You have operational control

317
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at that point

318
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because everybody you see turns into a pink mist.

319
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I hate to be rude, but everybody who shows up to try and fight them

320
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is going to turn into a pink mist.

321
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Fast attack boats, gone.

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I mean, if you really aren't sure what an 1A10 Warthog can do,

323
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I invite you to just sit down and kind of look at it.

324
00:23:23,378 --> 00:23:27,518
Okay, and just go through a typical loadout for that particular operation,

325
00:23:27,978 --> 00:23:31,138
understand what that cannon on the front of that thing can do.

326
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and I want you to, I want you to explain to me how a bunch of catamarans and a bunch of, you know,

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I don't want, how those things are going to survive long enough to do whatever they're going

328
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to do. Lay mines, do this, do that. I don't know. Like ram our carriers, like all that old crap that

329
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we used to hear about the war games that, you know, every time, you know, Doug McGregor used to,

330
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still does unbelievably

331
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still pedals this shit so did

332
00:24:00,858 --> 00:24:03,418
Jim Rickards back in the day they all did

333
00:24:03,418 --> 00:24:05,018
and it was all bullshit it was all agiprop

334
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it was all bullshit

335
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every bit of it

336
00:24:08,338 --> 00:24:09,758
it was all nonsense

337
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we weren't going to be allowed to do that

338
00:24:13,178 --> 00:24:14,598
as long as Obama was president

339
00:24:14,598 --> 00:24:18,458
because Obama was always

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00:24:18,458 --> 00:24:20,078
London's asset

341
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and that's where I was

342
00:24:23,078 --> 00:24:24,498
and over the years I've had to

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fine tune

344
00:24:26,798 --> 00:24:31,638
my worldview. And I used to make it more complicated than it is. It's not complicated

345
00:24:31,638 --> 00:24:36,058
anymore. There's London and their assets and there's everybody else. And then there's the

346
00:24:36,058 --> 00:24:39,478
United States who they're trying to destroy. The Russians are their own node. The Chinese are their

347
00:24:39,478 --> 00:24:44,238
own node. And everybody else is kind of caught in the middle trying to figure out who's going to win

348
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and all the middle powers, the Saudis and the Indians and the Brazilians and everybody else

349
00:24:48,938 --> 00:24:52,178
trying to figure out, is it going to be Davos and see the London that wins or is it going to be the

350
00:24:52,178 --> 00:24:57,558
United States that wins. And the Russians and Chinese, of course, form a bit of a coalition

351
00:24:57,558 --> 00:25:02,598
together in order to antipode to stop that. That's what BRICS was always about. BRICS was never about,

352
00:25:03,138 --> 00:25:08,518
you know, it was never a good idea. It was always a necessity. And the minute the United States

353
00:25:08,518 --> 00:25:12,518
pulls out of that whole arrangement, starts acting like a sovereign nation as opposed to,

354
00:25:12,518 --> 00:25:17,418
you know, a bunch of globalist shitbags. It's amazing how much the world changes.

355
00:25:17,418 --> 00:25:23,198
and that's the kind of that's the that's the the calculus we have to do and it's hard don't get me

356
00:25:23,198 --> 00:25:27,518
wrong i mean it's not easy for people to see you have to live eat shit and breathe this stuff like

357
00:25:27,518 --> 00:25:34,198
i do right and you have to have a good framework at to begin with as the change is happening

358
00:25:34,198 --> 00:25:43,078
in order to see it in real time i get it i i don't i don't begrudge anybody who's confused

359
00:25:43,078 --> 00:25:48,238
it's a great intelligence operation the hallmark of a great intelligence operation is everybody's

360
00:25:48,238 --> 00:25:53,918
really confused that's like the definition of a good intelligence op right you're a good

361
00:25:53,918 --> 00:25:58,418
intelligence op is you're confused for a little while a great one is you can you can bamboozle

362
00:25:58,418 --> 00:26:05,178
two generations of people into believing bullshit that was a good one yeah trump just blew it all

363
00:26:05,178 --> 00:26:10,998
up he's like literally pulled out his like big long sword that says gordian on it leaving knots

364
00:26:10,998 --> 00:26:15,578
left and right like a fucking like he's hacking through the forest it's hilarious it's like his

365
00:26:15,578 --> 00:26:20,398
lightsaber you know it doesn't it doesn't glow blue it says gordian on the side of it yeah he's

366
00:26:20,398 --> 00:26:25,498
got a special you know sam jackson has purple lightsaber you know trump's got fucking neon

367
00:26:25,498 --> 00:26:32,278
lights on his you know what i mean a gold foil to go along with it well that you know i mean so

368
00:26:32,278 --> 00:26:37,058
again like hilarious if you want me if you want my honest opinion but yeah i'm sorry so i've been

369
00:26:37,058 --> 00:26:39,758
watching this with like the three lenses and like yours being one and like

370
00:26:39,758 --> 00:26:43,158
whenever I get emotional about something through another lens I'm like

371
00:26:43,158 --> 00:26:46,418
alright let me put this through Tom's lens that's one thing I've been curious to

372
00:26:46,418 --> 00:26:51,278
ask you like right in terms of like collateral damage particularly to the

373
00:26:51,278 --> 00:26:57,878
infrastructure the energy infrastructure that's being materially impaired is that

374
00:26:57,878 --> 00:27:05,678
expected is that by you and like to what extent is that is that can you

375
00:27:05,678 --> 00:27:07,698
stomach that collateral

376
00:27:07,698 --> 00:27:08,658
damage because

377
00:27:08,658 --> 00:27:11,578
you blow it all up

378
00:27:11,578 --> 00:27:12,998
and it creates... Yeah, no, I agree.

379
00:27:13,958 --> 00:27:15,698
You're asking

380
00:27:15,698 --> 00:27:17,578
the right question, which is

381
00:27:17,578 --> 00:27:18,078
you know,

382
00:27:18,318 --> 00:27:21,658
what are we going to have

383
00:27:21,658 --> 00:27:23,298
to deal with on the backside of this?

384
00:27:23,378 --> 00:27:25,018
Clearly the Iranians went off and

385
00:27:25,018 --> 00:27:26,358
blew up a bunch of shit

386
00:27:26,358 --> 00:27:29,498
in fury.

387
00:27:29,758 --> 00:27:31,738
But if you look at it, I would say

388
00:27:31,738 --> 00:27:32,258
this.

389
00:27:33,778 --> 00:27:35,358
That was their, quote unquote,

390
00:27:35,358 --> 00:27:41,858
their Samson option, right? Which is, you know, they have this, you know, we've all been told

391
00:27:41,858 --> 00:27:45,798
about their great mosaic defense and everything else. I'm going to stop for a second just to

392
00:27:45,798 --> 00:27:51,138
remind everybody. The Iranians had a very good strategy, but they had a very good strategy for

393
00:27:51,138 --> 00:27:59,578
the wrong war. If we had decided to fight the neocons of war on their terms, the way we would

394
00:27:59,578 --> 00:28:04,598
have fought every other war that they were trying to sucker us into, we would be in trouble today.

395
00:28:04,598 --> 00:28:10,298
a lot of trouble you know why all the things that people said 92 million people it's a place the

396
00:28:10,298 --> 00:28:18,118
size the texas the texas oklahoma it's a huge country right um mountainous horrible terrain

397
00:28:18,118 --> 00:28:21,778
to fight through yada yada yada it would be like invading the united states the united states

398
00:28:21,778 --> 00:28:30,578
terrible terrible landscape to to invade one because it's huge and two there are mountain

399
00:28:30,578 --> 00:28:35,318
ranges and there's this and there's that and there's all this crap right and you know that's

400
00:28:35,318 --> 00:28:41,018
why it took us 200 years to you know get from one end of the continent to the other right i mean

401
00:28:41,018 --> 00:28:45,438
it wasn't an easy right and we have other than and then there's and then there's guys like me

402
00:28:45,438 --> 00:28:49,338
like you know what i mean like yeah you're you're going to be marching troops into you know into

403
00:28:49,338 --> 00:28:53,378
tennessee or florida or wherever i happen to get to time like yeah okay that's good like the average

404
00:28:53,378 --> 00:28:58,938
dude and the average dude you know in places that i live you know has has three truck guns because

405
00:28:58,938 --> 00:28:59,958
the first two might jam.

406
00:29:01,618 --> 00:29:01,918
You know?

407
00:29:03,778 --> 00:29:05,458
What else are you going to do with the fucking things?

408
00:29:05,598 --> 00:29:07,918
And by the way, they're all barreled

409
00:29:07,918 --> 00:29:09,358
in the same fucking caliber, too.

410
00:29:09,438 --> 00:29:10,698
So they have one ammunition

411
00:29:10,698 --> 00:29:12,838
and a whole bunch of, you know, you know what I mean?

412
00:29:13,438 --> 00:29:14,918
And, um...

413
00:29:14,918 --> 00:29:19,758
But that war that they prepped for,

414
00:29:19,838 --> 00:29:20,838
their Mosaic defense,

415
00:29:21,058 --> 00:29:22,878
we've heard all this stuff about,

416
00:29:23,398 --> 00:29:24,398
was a good strategy.

417
00:29:24,578 --> 00:29:26,918
It just happened to be...

418
00:29:26,918 --> 00:29:31,578
We didn't meet them on ground that they prepared.

419
00:29:32,258 --> 00:29:36,398
So, you know, like it or not, you know, Trump's not an idiot.

420
00:29:36,538 --> 00:29:39,278
He's got good people around him, and they decided to fight the war differently.

421
00:29:39,898 --> 00:29:46,338
And they had the Israelis in their back pocket with all their human intelligence and all of their on-the-ground intelligence and everything else.

422
00:29:46,338 --> 00:29:56,578
and like it or not, the two of them, those two forces, when they're acting, you know,

423
00:29:56,578 --> 00:30:03,898
in a mission critical or, you know, goal oriented behavior, it's kind of disturbing.

424
00:30:04,318 --> 00:30:08,198
So now let's talk about your original question, which is about collateral damage.

425
00:30:08,198 --> 00:30:16,638
so I think what you what we've seen and you know I may get corrected by some of my you know my

426
00:30:16,638 --> 00:30:21,398
military friends about this but I think what we've seen is when you knock out your their command and

427
00:30:21,398 --> 00:30:25,918
control when they when you they don't have when they're not getting orders when it's just a bunch

428
00:30:25,918 --> 00:30:30,898
of guys basically on a shortwave talking amongst themselves I'm not saying this isn't the the the

429
00:30:30,898 --> 00:30:37,518
case on day one day two or day three but now clearly um they have a they were given instructions

430
00:30:37,518 --> 00:30:46,078
if you don't get these orders by this time after this do this and they did that and

431
00:30:46,078 --> 00:30:52,658
and then you send aragache out there to try and you know do whatever he's going to do in terms of

432
00:30:52,658 --> 00:30:58,478
you know to work the diplomatic channels and everything else um and i just find it and that's

433
00:30:58,478 --> 00:31:03,338
what they've done and i'm you know i don't begrudge them trying to fight the wars that they have on

434
00:31:03,338 --> 00:31:07,118
they're now trying to fight the war they have versus the war they prepared for the best way

435
00:31:07,118 --> 00:31:12,878
they know how and i would expect them to fight hard and i would expect them to get some hits in

436
00:31:12,878 --> 00:31:20,598
and to get some licks in and did and did they yes you know it and let's put it this way in that

437
00:31:20,598 --> 00:31:26,778
respect and again i'm not here to talk about morals here folks okay i mean we'll do that in a

438
00:31:26,778 --> 00:31:32,658
minute i'll give you my opinion on why we were justified to do this in a minute but just purely

439
00:31:32,658 --> 00:31:33,798
strategically and whatnot,

440
00:31:35,098 --> 00:31:35,878
but dispassionately,

441
00:31:36,378 --> 00:31:38,678
do you have to put it on the board that

442
00:31:38,678 --> 00:31:39,658
they're going to get these hits in?

443
00:31:40,798 --> 00:31:42,698
They're going to have these effects. There may be

444
00:31:42,698 --> 00:31:44,378
some downstream effects from that,

445
00:31:44,698 --> 00:31:46,578
meaning you hit Hellevive hard.

446
00:31:47,178 --> 00:31:48,158
You may or may not have gotten

447
00:31:48,158 --> 00:31:49,898
Netanyahu,

448
00:31:50,298 --> 00:31:52,378
much sad, very cry

449
00:31:52,378 --> 00:31:54,618
on my part. I hate

450
00:31:54,618 --> 00:31:55,618
Bibi.

451
00:31:57,918 --> 00:31:58,398
But

452
00:31:58,398 --> 00:32:00,598
and that may

453
00:32:00,598 --> 00:32:06,238
sending Israelis to do something in response that, you know, creates another aftershock

454
00:32:06,238 --> 00:32:10,618
that's, you know, that, you know, Richter scale terms is one or two points higher than it should

455
00:32:10,618 --> 00:32:13,958
have been, right? Because then they fight amongst themselves and the Iranians fight, you know,

456
00:32:13,958 --> 00:32:19,398
like, you know, that's where we are. And so we've had some oil infrastructure and oil and gas

457
00:32:19,398 --> 00:32:23,138
infrastructure hit. I'm sure Trump's not shedding a tear over it because, you know, if the Qataris

458
00:32:23,138 --> 00:32:27,378
can't export LNG, that just means that we're going to export more of it. And Donald Trump's

459
00:32:27,378 --> 00:32:32,878
very transactional and frankly amoral framework.

460
00:32:33,718 --> 00:32:34,838
That's good for America.

461
00:32:35,338 --> 00:32:36,478
We get paid for that shit.

462
00:32:36,718 --> 00:32:38,778
They owe us that money anyway, these fucking people.

463
00:32:38,998 --> 00:32:40,658
I'm sure that's what he's thinking in the White House.

464
00:32:41,558 --> 00:32:48,798
And I'm also sure he's thinking simultaneously, just surrender and let's get this over and

465
00:32:48,798 --> 00:32:49,158
done with.

466
00:32:49,978 --> 00:32:53,158
And let's get you back to acting and let's get the civilian.

467
00:32:53,158 --> 00:33:02,238
In the perfect world, what Trump wanted was a perfect decapitation strike, right?

468
00:33:03,858 --> 00:33:08,478
Get the Iranians to realize they're beaten.

469
00:33:08,998 --> 00:33:13,098
And then the civilian government that still exists goes, yep, okay, we're done.

470
00:33:13,618 --> 00:33:17,658
And we're getting rid of these guys, which is, it's not realistic, obviously.

471
00:33:17,658 --> 00:33:23,578
um and then trump's like cool uh we're in control of the oil flow coming out of the straits

472
00:33:23,578 --> 00:33:27,238
and we're going to make sure that your oil makes it to market and you're going to get paid for it

473
00:33:27,238 --> 00:33:32,538
and then it becomes venezuela 2.0 because what he did in venezuela was pretty obvious

474
00:33:32,538 --> 00:33:38,418
he goes in exfiltrates maduro for a variety of reasons not the least of which is to get maduro's

475
00:33:38,418 --> 00:33:44,558
friggin uh evidence about the 2020 election and you know all the and all that stuff and all the

476
00:33:44,558 --> 00:33:49,758
ledger books of what they've been, of what money and stuff has flowed through Venezuela all these

477
00:33:49,758 --> 00:33:56,058
years. Maduro, I never looked at as an actor that had any agency. He was a captured pawn sitting on

478
00:33:56,058 --> 00:34:00,438
a throne that we're all supposed to hate. And meanwhile, he's got his Praetorian, as Ian

479
00:34:00,438 --> 00:34:04,418
Burlingame likes to put it, his Praetorian guards around him, keeping him in check and keeping him

480
00:34:04,418 --> 00:34:11,258
there. Trump comes in, exfiltrates him and the wife, just secures his family, slaughters all the

481
00:34:11,258 --> 00:34:15,958
Praetorian guards. They're in and out in four hours or six hours or whatever the hell it is.

482
00:34:17,018 --> 00:34:20,618
And then let's make a deal with the existing government that's there.

483
00:34:21,418 --> 00:34:27,238
Let's take that boot off of their neck and then allow the Venezuelan people to come up

484
00:34:27,238 --> 00:34:33,418
out from underneath that. And we begin the process, the slow process of allowing them,

485
00:34:33,558 --> 00:34:37,778
of helping them come out of this terrible position. It's kind of the same thing he's

486
00:34:37,778 --> 00:34:45,878
doing with Cuba. Those negotiations are going on. And it's kind of the message. It's not kind of

487
00:34:45,878 --> 00:34:49,578
the message. It's exactly the same message you sent to Mexico and the cartels. Oh, by the way,

488
00:34:49,598 --> 00:34:54,638
you're next. And he keeps trying to tell more Kearney. Oh, by the way, I can see you up in

489
00:34:54,638 --> 00:34:59,378
Canada. And you're too fucking stupid to see what to see what's coming for whatever reason,

490
00:34:59,398 --> 00:35:05,438
or just arrogant or whatever. And I see Alberta, sir. I see Alberta. I see so many things in my

491
00:35:05,438 --> 00:35:10,898
future let's not even go there and but iran was also one of these network nodes that needed to be

492
00:35:10,898 --> 00:35:17,618
dealt with and iran would be the biggest problem which would require the biggest operation right

493
00:35:17,618 --> 00:35:25,698
over the most important physical choke point on the planet left panama canal mostly taken care of

494
00:35:25,698 --> 00:35:32,138
english channel not really important anymore straits of malacca it's important but we're not

495
00:35:32,138 --> 00:35:40,238
We're the ones patrolling it, so we're not going to stop the ships from flowing because under Trump, we don't care that the Chinese get oil through the Straits of Malacca.

496
00:35:40,638 --> 00:35:46,138
When the neocons and the British were running our foreign policy, oh, the Straits of Malacca were important, which is why Singapore is a thing.

497
00:35:47,398 --> 00:35:49,578
Singapore is only a thing because of the Straits of Malacca.

498
00:35:49,578 --> 00:36:14,598
And if you go back, I invite everybody to really look at a lot of the types of conflicts and low-level conflicts and whatnot that have happened in places like Malaysia and Myanmar and Bangladesh and especially Shan State in the northern part of Myanmar and then northern Thailand and all that.

499
00:36:14,598 --> 00:36:16,338
If you look at all that, I used to study all this.

500
00:36:16,438 --> 00:36:17,078
I used to work with a guy.

501
00:36:17,478 --> 00:36:22,898
You know, when I first started doing this, I was transitioning into doing it professionally before I went to work for Newsmax.

502
00:36:22,978 --> 00:36:24,498
I was working with a guy over in Vietnam.

503
00:36:24,618 --> 00:36:25,578
So I learned all about this.

504
00:36:25,658 --> 00:36:36,538
I was there 2011, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, watching the Chinese try to figure out a way to get out from beyond the Straits by building up a port in Myanmar.

505
00:36:37,058 --> 00:36:39,078
So that they didn't have to be bottled up by the Straits.

506
00:36:39,078 --> 00:36:44,178
and they were bringing in, they had a big oil and gas pipeline that they brought in from Myanmar to Kunming,

507
00:36:44,478 --> 00:36:48,538
the industrial city in the south, just north of Thailand, right?

508
00:36:49,318 --> 00:36:50,538
Go through all that stuff.

509
00:36:50,598 --> 00:36:55,998
And every time you saw the Chinese trying to break around the bottleneck at the Straits of Malacca,

510
00:36:55,998 --> 00:37:00,998
all of a sudden there was sectarian violence between Muslims and someone else or whatever,

511
00:37:01,438 --> 00:37:03,318
in Myanmar or this place or that place.

512
00:37:03,418 --> 00:37:06,358
I could literally pinpoint it to individual places.

513
00:37:06,358 --> 00:37:08,218
because you could just see it happen

514
00:37:08,218 --> 00:37:09,958
over and over and over again.

515
00:37:10,018 --> 00:37:11,018
I'm like, oh, that's so obvious.

516
00:37:11,598 --> 00:37:14,338
That's kind of what began to train me

517
00:37:14,338 --> 00:37:16,398
in how to look at the world that way, right?

518
00:37:17,078 --> 00:37:19,198
And then you could look at what you saw at.

519
00:37:19,298 --> 00:37:21,038
And then, so there's others around the world,

520
00:37:21,038 --> 00:37:25,138
but these are the geographic choke points

521
00:37:25,138 --> 00:37:25,858
that need to go away.

522
00:37:26,098 --> 00:37:27,738
These are the single points of failure

523
00:37:27,738 --> 00:37:29,758
that can be spun up at a moment's notice

524
00:37:29,758 --> 00:37:33,198
in order to create an outsized response

525
00:37:33,198 --> 00:37:35,718
that then blackmails the world.

526
00:37:36,358 --> 00:37:39,818
and say, no, you have to allow us, and then the Iranians come around and go,

527
00:37:40,118 --> 00:37:43,038
you have to allow us to have nuclear weapons because it's our right,

528
00:37:43,278 --> 00:37:46,878
or we're going to bring global trade to a halt.

529
00:37:47,238 --> 00:37:48,078
Ah, fuck you, no.

530
00:37:50,518 --> 00:37:51,798
How about fuck you, no?

531
00:37:53,538 --> 00:37:57,558
Like, seriously, I mean, why do we even have to, like, what gives you the right?

532
00:37:57,638 --> 00:37:58,898
Because fuck you, that's why.

533
00:38:01,438 --> 00:38:04,258
I mean, seriously, no, you don't get to do that.

534
00:38:04,258 --> 00:38:09,478
we have the right we as the humanity get to say no

535
00:38:09,478 --> 00:38:17,498
it's like the guy sitting at the end of the it's like the guy who controls who controls the property

536
00:38:17,498 --> 00:38:25,598
next to the next to the um the the stick the the the the entryway to the burb clave

537
00:38:25,598 --> 00:38:31,318
saying oh no you got to pay me a toll after you after you register with the dude after you register

538
00:38:31,318 --> 00:38:32,858
with the rent-a-cop at the freaking door.

539
00:38:33,558 --> 00:38:35,858
And we're like, and everybody in the neighborhood behind him

540
00:38:35,858 --> 00:38:38,158
is like, in America, like, lock and load,

541
00:38:38,378 --> 00:38:39,798
walk up with the 12-gauge going,

542
00:38:40,058 --> 00:38:40,918
ah, fuck you, dude.

543
00:38:40,978 --> 00:38:43,418
No, this is what the audience are doing.

544
00:38:44,338 --> 00:38:45,818
Except it's a nuclear weapon.

545
00:38:46,098 --> 00:38:46,458
And why?

546
00:38:46,538 --> 00:38:48,198
Because he mounted a 50 cal on his house?

547
00:38:48,638 --> 00:38:50,718
So he's going to then tell us that we have to all,

548
00:38:50,958 --> 00:38:52,578
like, no, at that point, we all turn around

549
00:38:52,578 --> 00:38:54,218
and figure out a way to get, you know,

550
00:38:54,298 --> 00:38:56,398
get into his house, take his 50 cal away from it,

551
00:38:56,978 --> 00:38:58,338
beat him upside the fucking head, go,

552
00:38:58,698 --> 00:39:00,058
no, dude, and that's enough.

553
00:39:00,058 --> 00:39:07,178
like you know how about elbow me draw like done like and i'm doing that of course today because

554
00:39:07,178 --> 00:39:14,498
you know chuck norris just died and you know rest and chuck you know all hail all hail to

555
00:39:14,498 --> 00:39:22,238
chuck norris that dude was fucking badass um so like i don't know like this i i when a certain

556
00:39:22,238 --> 00:39:29,698
point when you stop and you bring it back to its primitives where we are they're threatening

557
00:39:29,698 --> 00:39:33,938
they're going to steal all our money they're going to like make our children's lives terrible

558
00:39:33,938 --> 00:39:37,638
they're going to do this they're going to well you can just give us what we want and it would

559
00:39:37,638 --> 00:39:43,898
make sense that if these points of control around the world now the focus being straight

560
00:39:43,898 --> 00:39:50,338
affirming is is so critical and important to uh the city of london then they would fight like

561
00:39:50,338 --> 00:39:56,158
death over it right and of course they would and they would and they would build this thing

562
00:39:56,158 --> 00:40:02,098
in Iran up into this implacable enemy in the minds of everybody. They'd run the psychological

563
00:40:02,098 --> 00:40:08,778
operation. They would run the, they would, they would, they would support, absolutely support

564
00:40:08,778 --> 00:40:14,118
horrific Iranian propaganda for, I mean, give the Persians their due. Like it's the same thing

565
00:40:14,118 --> 00:40:17,818
with the Russians. Give the, give the Russians their due. They're really good at propaganda.

566
00:40:18,278 --> 00:40:22,458
Like the Russians are really good at it. And I, and, and I have a soft spot for the Russians. I

567
00:40:22,458 --> 00:40:27,038
think they're justified in Ukraine. So, you know, I was just, I always felt the Russians were

568
00:40:27,038 --> 00:40:30,858
justified in Ukraine to stop NATO aggression in the same way that I think we're justified in going

569
00:40:30,858 --> 00:40:35,758
after Iran. I don't think Iran's a good guy. I never did. I, you know, at one point, I, you know,

570
00:40:35,758 --> 00:40:40,998
in the past, I'll say this in the past, especially, you know, the world has changed after 10, 7,

571
00:40:41,158 --> 00:40:48,598
like it or not. Okay. And not for the better, but it was clearly the inciting incident to get us to

572
00:40:48,598 --> 00:40:55,458
where we are today in this phase of history. And I wish it didn't happen and all and everything.

573
00:40:55,638 --> 00:41:00,858
I don't never wanted to see the Israelis lose their minds and go, you know, blow up the

574
00:41:00,858 --> 00:41:05,698
Palestinians the way they did. It's disgusting. Right. It's disgusting. I mean, I'm not, you know,

575
00:41:05,698 --> 00:41:10,438
I'm not mincing words here. You know, my nose is not big because I'm Jewish. It's because I'm

576
00:41:10,438 --> 00:41:16,058
fucking Italian. Hey, like, I don't care. I was raised Roman Catholic for Christ's sake. I, you

577
00:41:16,058 --> 00:41:19,718
I don't even, I fucking know a goddamn thing about anything.

578
00:41:19,818 --> 00:41:20,378
I don't care.

579
00:41:20,498 --> 00:41:21,558
I don't like the Israelis.

580
00:41:21,698 --> 00:41:22,338
I never have.

581
00:41:23,038 --> 00:41:23,298
Okay.

582
00:41:23,678 --> 00:41:31,478
But I can also dispassionately separate that from my opinion of them.

583
00:41:31,478 --> 00:41:47,176
And with them acting in their national interests you can argue whether or not you think they deserve to have national interests or not That fine I don care That not reality Reality is they have national

584
00:41:47,176 --> 00:41:54,876
interests. Iran has national interests. But Iran chose a path. They chose a path to fake negotiate

585
00:41:54,876 --> 00:42:01,476
while they pursued nuclear weapons. They chose a path to not negotiate in good faith.

586
00:42:01,476 --> 00:42:05,276
I have peers that believe that they were.

587
00:42:06,036 --> 00:42:07,236
I disagree with them.

588
00:42:07,496 --> 00:42:08,216
I've told them this.

589
00:42:08,676 --> 00:42:10,176
Alex Cranor disagrees with me.

590
00:42:10,376 --> 00:42:11,936
Joaquin Flores disagrees with me.

591
00:42:12,076 --> 00:42:12,556
That's fine.

592
00:42:12,896 --> 00:42:14,036
You can believe what you want to believe.

593
00:42:14,496 --> 00:42:20,756
I believe that they were negotiating exactly the same way they were when Obama was negotiating with them over the JCPOA.

594
00:42:21,236 --> 00:42:24,356
I haven't seen any change in behavior on their part.

595
00:42:24,756 --> 00:42:26,776
I don't make any justifications for their actions.

596
00:42:27,776 --> 00:42:27,976
Period.

597
00:42:29,236 --> 00:42:30,856
And they've been lying.

598
00:42:30,856 --> 00:42:38,256
And we've known for years that they were relying to the IAEA about their enrichment program, number of centrifuges they had running and everything else.

599
00:42:39,696 --> 00:42:47,236
I can even sit back and be generous and try and separate the clerics, not even calling them the mullahs, right?

600
00:42:47,356 --> 00:42:51,456
Call them the clerics who say, yeah, we issued a fought law against nuclear weapons.

601
00:42:51,916 --> 00:42:52,736
Okay, great.

602
00:42:53,916 --> 00:42:56,656
Well, the IRGC is pursuing a nuclear weapon.

603
00:42:56,856 --> 00:42:58,236
What are you doing to stop that?

604
00:42:58,236 --> 00:43:05,756
well maybe your shia clericism or whatever you want to call it your religious weight isn't enough

605
00:43:05,756 --> 00:43:11,836
to stop these religious crazies that are a military doing this terrible thing therefore

606
00:43:11,836 --> 00:43:18,456
i can so i can even look at hominy the late the the late hominy or they both could be late at this

607
00:43:18,456 --> 00:43:26,076
point um as like maduro a captured pawn right i can see it i can i can construct that argument i

608
00:43:26,076 --> 00:43:32,496
don't have to believe it i don't have to believe it but i can construct it and then i can say well

609
00:43:32,496 --> 00:43:37,696
yeah maybe he was a captured pawn and maybe the maybe his foreign minister and the president and

610
00:43:37,696 --> 00:43:41,316
everyone and the civilian arm of the government and them were trying to negotiate with the united

611
00:43:41,316 --> 00:43:46,596
states on the up and out but they were never going to do so if the irgc put a gun to their head and

612
00:43:46,596 --> 00:43:52,596
said negotiate like this the same way that maduro for years you know had a gun to his head and

613
00:43:52,596 --> 00:43:59,016
negotiated the way he did until Trump could guarantee for him he had his family safety.

614
00:44:00,516 --> 00:44:07,656
And then he rolled the dice and bet the farm on Delta Force. Pretty good bet on his part.

615
00:44:09,556 --> 00:44:15,376
And the United States went in. And the only reason we did that was because Maduro had value to us

616
00:44:15,376 --> 00:44:17,196
as an asset.

617
00:44:18,156 --> 00:44:19,996
Now, for the Iranians,

618
00:44:20,216 --> 00:44:22,116
they could have negotiated

619
00:44:22,116 --> 00:44:23,016
a new arrangement.

620
00:44:23,656 --> 00:44:24,376
They could have said,

621
00:44:24,616 --> 00:44:25,536
we no longer work.

622
00:44:25,996 --> 00:44:27,836
Yeah, they could have turned to London

623
00:44:27,836 --> 00:44:28,216
and gone,

624
00:44:29,376 --> 00:44:31,256
Trump's offering is this.

625
00:44:33,156 --> 00:44:34,096
What do you got?

626
00:44:36,076 --> 00:44:36,936
And if they say,

627
00:44:37,156 --> 00:44:39,076
we don't have anything,

628
00:44:39,176 --> 00:44:40,196
which the British don't,

629
00:44:41,816 --> 00:44:44,156
and the Iranians still chose war,

630
00:44:44,156 --> 00:44:48,056
brat and then the 810

631
00:44:48,056 --> 00:44:48,636
more hunt shot

632
00:44:48,636 --> 00:44:52,156
I mean that's my

633
00:44:52,156 --> 00:44:53,376
version of what happened

634
00:44:53,376 --> 00:44:55,856
and the

635
00:44:55,856 --> 00:44:58,156
week leading up to February 28th

636
00:44:58,916 --> 00:45:00,396
that became

637
00:45:00,396 --> 00:45:02,396
a higher and higher and higher probability for me

638
00:45:02,396 --> 00:45:03,636
that that was what was going to happen

639
00:45:03,636 --> 00:45:06,136
and I even thought that Trump was just going to do limited

640
00:45:06,136 --> 00:45:08,276
strikes to take out most of the

641
00:45:08,276 --> 00:45:10,156
IRGC's command and control and then hope

642
00:45:10,156 --> 00:45:12,196
that that was going to be the end of it and then we get

643
00:45:12,196 --> 00:45:13,816
like a 12 day war and then

644
00:45:14,156 --> 00:45:20,976
Give the Iranians the ability to do a fake bombing on one of our bases and save face and do this.

645
00:45:21,096 --> 00:45:22,476
And we do the same thing we did before.

646
00:45:23,616 --> 00:45:27,896
I never, ever thought we didn't bomb Ford out in the pants.

647
00:45:29,036 --> 00:45:39,936
See, this is where some of my peers, again, I'm not trying to, I'm not saying, I'm trying to throw Alex and Joaquin under the bus here.

648
00:45:39,936 --> 00:45:42,376
They had a different interpretation of events than I did.

649
00:45:42,376 --> 00:45:48,116
And they premised their analysis based on that premise.

650
00:45:48,856 --> 00:45:53,976
And then when, so they were convinced that last year it was a fake bombing.

651
00:45:54,256 --> 00:45:57,076
And it was a fake set of bombs and it was a movie.

652
00:45:59,436 --> 00:46:02,216
When we attacked the centrifuges?

653
00:46:02,216 --> 00:46:08,476
Yeah, when we attacked the Fordow and the Tans, they just dropped a bunch of bombs out in the desert and didn't do anything.

654
00:46:08,476 --> 00:46:19,696
I'm like, that's a, I said from day one, when that happens, whatever that was, June 26th or whatever, I said, oh, that's a bad, no, no, no, we bombed that.

655
00:46:20,056 --> 00:46:22,116
I know Americans well enough to know that we bombed that.

656
00:46:22,696 --> 00:46:24,456
I know Trump well enough to know we bombed that.

657
00:46:25,096 --> 00:46:30,896
You don't, don't overcommit to that, to that, that interpretation of events.

658
00:46:30,896 --> 00:46:34,136
because it could lead you in the future

659
00:46:34,136 --> 00:46:38,896
to a bad analysis in the future

660
00:46:38,896 --> 00:46:40,076
if this ever comes up again,

661
00:46:40,356 --> 00:46:42,256
which did, and they were both convinced

662
00:46:42,256 --> 00:46:43,216
Trump's not going to attack.

663
00:46:43,736 --> 00:46:45,396
The Iranians are negotiating in faith.

664
00:46:45,576 --> 00:46:47,176
We're setting up for the same exact thing

665
00:46:47,176 --> 00:46:48,496
as the last time, blah, blah, blah, blah.

666
00:46:48,496 --> 00:46:51,216
We all thought this before Putin

667
00:46:51,216 --> 00:46:53,096
and moved into Ukraine.

668
00:46:53,296 --> 00:46:54,356
We all said that it's not going to be a war.

669
00:46:55,056 --> 00:46:56,496
Then Putin comes in, shock and awe,

670
00:46:56,556 --> 00:46:57,616
does exactly the Trump thing.

671
00:46:58,116 --> 00:47:00,496
And he's knocking on the door of Kiev.

672
00:47:00,896 --> 00:47:02,936
in the first 12 hours.

673
00:47:04,616 --> 00:47:06,436
24 hours, 40 hours, whatever the hell it was.

674
00:47:08,196 --> 00:47:09,816
Everybody keeps making that mistake

675
00:47:09,816 --> 00:47:12,816
because no one wants to invite that level of chaos

676
00:47:12,816 --> 00:47:13,536
into their thinking,

677
00:47:13,876 --> 00:47:15,116
but they don't want to plan for it.

678
00:47:15,136 --> 00:47:15,816
We said all of a sudden,

679
00:47:16,176 --> 00:47:18,056
that becomes a very difficult thing.

680
00:47:18,916 --> 00:47:21,836
Look, it speaks to their humanity.

681
00:47:21,996 --> 00:47:23,596
It speaks to their qualities as human beings

682
00:47:23,596 --> 00:47:28,076
that they don't believe that that's the way they view Trump,

683
00:47:28,556 --> 00:47:30,556
that he wouldn't do something to them

684
00:47:30,556 --> 00:47:36,176
that was that apparent. And so therefore, you know, when you think of the psychology of the

685
00:47:36,176 --> 00:47:40,156
situation, and I again, don't mean to speak for, you know, grown men and everything else, but I'm

686
00:47:40,156 --> 00:47:45,656
trying to be as generous and as multi, you know, I'm trying to be not as generous, but just as,

687
00:47:45,996 --> 00:47:51,156
just as I can see it from a variety of different perspectives. But when I got done with the 12 day

688
00:47:51,156 --> 00:47:56,456
war last year, I sat down and I really, I really, me personally, I sat back and I went, I've got a

689
00:47:56,456 --> 00:48:00,036
lot of rethinking to do. I have a lot of recalculation to do. And I did.

690
00:48:00,756 --> 00:48:02,156
And I came down on the, oh, no.

691
00:48:04,176 --> 00:48:08,276
That was an impressive operation. And

692
00:48:08,276 --> 00:48:11,536
Iran better have gotten the message. And if they didn't get the message,

693
00:48:14,016 --> 00:48:16,136
okay, one, then I get to

694
00:48:16,136 --> 00:48:20,276
double down over and over and over again that my

695
00:48:20,276 --> 00:48:24,196
newly found insight that at that point that Iran was actually

696
00:48:24,196 --> 00:48:28,816
working with Steve London, red ants, black ants, the Alex Cranor, put the red ants and the black

697
00:48:28,816 --> 00:48:33,516
ants in the jar, shake them up and let them fight. They're funding the Iranians on one side,

698
00:48:33,596 --> 00:48:40,356
they're funding the Israelis on the other, you know, welcome to war. They profit on the chaos.

699
00:48:41,476 --> 00:48:43,896
Hey, it's a good business model. It's been serving the British for fucking 300,

700
00:48:43,896 --> 00:48:48,836
400 years. Between the British and the Dutch and everybody else, it's a great business model.

701
00:48:48,836 --> 00:48:50,636
It's good work if you can get it.

702
00:48:52,316 --> 00:48:56,376
It's horrific for humanity, obviously, and for the victims of it.

703
00:48:56,456 --> 00:48:58,556
But from their perspective, it's a good business model.

704
00:48:59,516 --> 00:49:08,976
And Iran's actions, or at least the IRGC and the theocracy's actions after that,

705
00:49:09,376 --> 00:49:14,636
support my interpretation of events, my map of whose incentives map to what

706
00:49:14,636 --> 00:49:16,056
and whose relationships map to what.

707
00:49:16,056 --> 00:49:18,616
You get the Promethean action ladies and some other ones coming in and going,

708
00:49:18,616 --> 00:49:22,216
oh yeah, well, you know, this guy's got this money and, you know, a billion in a row in London,

709
00:49:22,396 --> 00:49:27,456
and they've got this and they've got that. And then what you're watching after that is a bunch

710
00:49:27,456 --> 00:49:34,416
of people having to justify and cope that those relationships don't exist. And now we have to

711
00:49:34,416 --> 00:49:37,816
prove, and now they're trying to prove that negative as opposed to just saying, no, those

712
00:49:37,816 --> 00:49:45,276
relationships still exist. And so there's a fundamental difference of perspective, which has

713
00:49:45,276 --> 00:49:48,356
led to a fundamental difference in analysis.

714
00:49:49,236 --> 00:49:54,276
And then I'm an American.

715
00:49:57,696 --> 00:49:58,296
Sorry.

716
00:49:58,796 --> 00:49:59,216
Yeah.

717
00:49:59,436 --> 00:50:02,396
At a certain point, it's stressful.

718
00:50:03,456 --> 00:50:06,296
It's anxiety driven.

719
00:50:06,696 --> 00:50:10,596
And everybody's laying out their anxiety on their phones every day,

720
00:50:10,776 --> 00:50:11,436
including me.

721
00:50:12,116 --> 00:50:13,876
I'm not going to sit there.

722
00:50:13,876 --> 00:50:17,076
I sleep well at night.

723
00:50:21,216 --> 00:50:23,696
But everybody, I've been saying this for a while now.

724
00:50:24,756 --> 00:50:35,096
When we get maximally stressed, when we are having our base assumptions about how we think the world works, changes or is being challenged.

725
00:50:35,716 --> 00:50:37,076
We revert to primitives.

726
00:50:40,156 --> 00:50:41,696
And you know what my primitive is?

727
00:50:43,876 --> 00:50:44,236
Patton.

728
00:50:46,236 --> 00:50:47,116
I'm not kidding.

729
00:50:48,816 --> 00:50:51,156
Like I go back and I watch the frigging day.

730
00:50:51,236 --> 00:50:51,476
First,

731
00:50:51,636 --> 00:50:52,676
I watched the opening speech,

732
00:50:52,796 --> 00:50:53,116
George C.

733
00:50:53,176 --> 00:50:54,196
Scott as Patton.

734
00:50:54,336 --> 00:50:55,536
I watched that and I'm like,

735
00:50:55,956 --> 00:50:56,956
I'm 12 years old again.

736
00:50:58,576 --> 00:50:59,416
It's terrible.

737
00:51:00,276 --> 00:51:01,256
I say it's terrible.

738
00:51:01,376 --> 00:51:02,536
I think in reality,

739
00:51:02,656 --> 00:51:03,636
in hindsight,

740
00:51:03,896 --> 00:51:04,376
and it's funny,

741
00:51:04,376 --> 00:51:07,476
I mentioned this about two months ago.

742
00:51:07,676 --> 00:51:08,276
I said,

743
00:51:08,356 --> 00:51:09,316
I need to watch Patton again.

744
00:51:09,916 --> 00:51:10,136
Yep.

745
00:51:11,156 --> 00:51:12,456
And I watched it again.

746
00:51:12,536 --> 00:51:13,016
And I said,

747
00:51:13,016 --> 00:51:17,476
and I was watching it and I went, oh, and I learned, and then I learned a lot more about

748
00:51:17,476 --> 00:51:22,336
Patton. I stopped, stopped just taking the movie as gospel. I really sat down and did a deep dive

749
00:51:22,336 --> 00:51:26,596
into Patton for about three days. Didn't get a lot of sleep. I was up on YouTube until six

750
00:51:26,596 --> 00:51:30,276
o'clock in the morning, like multiple nights in a row, watching stuff about Patton. And I realized

751
00:51:30,276 --> 00:51:33,656
something about Patton I hadn't, I hadn't understood, which is that Patton fought war

752
00:51:33,656 --> 00:51:39,736
to minimize damage, to minimize loss of human life. He wanted to beat the enemy so fast that

753
00:51:39,736 --> 00:51:44,396
they did not know that they were beaten, capture all of them, capture the position, move on to the

754
00:51:44,396 --> 00:51:48,436
next target, keep going, keep going, keep going. And before you know it, the war is over. A couple

755
00:51:48,436 --> 00:51:55,676
of thousand men are killed, 250,000 men are captured, and the war's over. And the civilian

756
00:51:55,676 --> 00:52:03,476
damage has been almost none. Everybody wins. If you're going to fight a war, fight it like that.

757
00:52:04,076 --> 00:52:07,656
If you want to know how we're fighting the war here in Iran,

758
00:52:09,736 --> 00:52:12,596
The guys who were still picking up weapons, they're getting vaporized.

759
00:52:13,196 --> 00:52:13,336
Yeah.

760
00:52:14,056 --> 00:52:17,296
How, you know, but the civilian casualties are pretty low.

761
00:52:18,396 --> 00:52:23,036
I mean, they're not zero, but they can't, you can't, you can't expect them to be zero.

762
00:52:24,116 --> 00:52:27,776
Like at some point, you know, it's a tragedy.

763
00:52:27,996 --> 00:52:28,576
It's terrible.

764
00:52:29,116 --> 00:52:31,356
You know, this is humanity.

765
00:52:31,536 --> 00:52:31,896
We're messy.

766
00:52:32,916 --> 00:52:33,316
Yeah.

767
00:52:33,356 --> 00:52:39,076
I mean, the bombing of the girls' school, that was hard to stomach.

768
00:52:39,076 --> 00:52:43,556
But again, just looking at this dispatch and going down.

769
00:52:44,516 --> 00:52:47,396
So that's another thing I'm trying to figure out in my mind now.

770
00:52:47,496 --> 00:52:50,756
Speaking of collateral damage coming in many forms, obviously energy, infrastructure.

771
00:52:52,176 --> 00:52:55,316
One quick thing about the school.

772
00:52:55,576 --> 00:52:58,316
I did not know anything about it.

773
00:52:58,456 --> 00:53:00,076
I didn't spend any time looking at it.

774
00:53:00,176 --> 00:53:03,436
I was listening to my friend Blaine Holt about this this morning.

775
00:53:03,436 --> 00:53:09,976
crypto rich the other day and he said um oh by the way um we have good intelligence now that

776
00:53:09,976 --> 00:53:17,696
that was actually a misfired iranian weapon that went backwards and you know it was they were doing

777
00:53:17,696 --> 00:53:24,536
you know it it was a terrible thing it's collateral damage it's you can say we we we caused it we did

778
00:53:24,536 --> 00:53:31,416
not bomb the school and again i'm i'm i'm okay i'm not saying that's like oh my god we're the

779
00:53:31,416 --> 00:53:35,116
americans are so great and i'm trying to hope my way around it no if we bomb the school we bomb

780
00:53:35,116 --> 00:53:40,876
school like obama bombed drone struck americans for fuck's sake okay you want to talk about why

781
00:53:40,876 --> 00:53:45,156
i crashed out as a human being saying okay as fuck this you these people don't get to do anything

782
00:53:45,156 --> 00:53:50,116
on my watch anymore because of the drone striker in chief and this i used to call him obamia

783
00:53:50,116 --> 00:53:56,816
right oh dash bomb dash yeah that was my name for him for years and it still is i still think he's a

784
00:53:56,816 --> 00:54:02,576
fucking scumbag. And, you know, and he's drone striking Americans, no less everybody else.

785
00:54:03,776 --> 00:54:13,876
You know, look again, you know, we can sit here and we can talk about it. However, we can talk

786
00:54:13,876 --> 00:54:19,196
about, you know, I can sit here and I can flash to, you know, Ozymandias at the end of Watchmen

787
00:54:19,196 --> 00:54:27,116
going, I did it. And, you know, do you have to swallow it? I don't know. I mean, you hope that

788
00:54:27,116 --> 00:54:33,316
you don't, you know, he dropped a nuclear bomb for all intents and purposes. Movie version,

789
00:54:33,376 --> 00:54:38,256
he drops a nuclear bomb. Comic book version, he drops a freaking psychic weird, you know,

790
00:54:38,736 --> 00:54:49,076
thing on New York and kills 6 million people. Ethical, moral argument, the same, but

791
00:54:49,196 --> 00:54:51,056
I'm not making that decision.

792
00:54:51,456 --> 00:54:54,676
I don't have to agree or disagree with the decision in that respect.

793
00:54:56,376 --> 00:55:02,056
If the long-term outcome is that this amount of violence leads to a lot less violence in the future

794
00:55:02,056 --> 00:55:08,496
and a lot less cost for everybody, and the Iranian people get to live the way they want.

795
00:55:08,496 --> 00:55:12,936
If they choose that they want to go back and live like they did before the war, that's their prerogative.

796
00:55:13,816 --> 00:55:16,776
Just expect that in about 15 or 20 years, the United States is going to come back over again.

797
00:55:16,876 --> 00:55:17,796
They're going to bomb the fuck out of you.

798
00:55:19,196 --> 00:55:25,036
well that's i you know because that's what america's americans are pretty much

799
00:55:25,036 --> 00:55:29,296
in agreement about that because the polling i'm seeing on the war is like yeah this is justified

800
00:55:29,296 --> 00:55:35,896
well that's what i i i question the polling whether or not it's legit no i think i i don't

801
00:55:35,896 --> 00:55:41,216
yeah i don't i really don't the one i'm not seeing any other day was like mega 100 support

802
00:55:41,216 --> 00:55:47,476
that's obvious that's obvious fucking thank you but like it was like like 89 90 of of republican

803
00:55:47,476 --> 00:55:53,756
voters and you know 75 or 60 to 70 percent of of americans in general and obviously do trump

804
00:55:53,756 --> 00:55:58,416
hasn't tried to really justify the war he's just been he's just been running it he's not really out

805
00:55:58,416 --> 00:56:02,596
there every day going we're doing this for because he knows the american people won't believe it

806
00:56:02,596 --> 00:56:07,276
anymore bush used to go out there and do that but obama and clinton went out there and tried to sell

807
00:56:07,276 --> 00:56:11,556
it as a humanitarian war i'm like no i'm not selling this is not a humanitarian war this is

808
00:56:11,556 --> 00:56:14,296
purely in our geostrategic interests.

809
00:56:14,516 --> 00:56:15,016
That's it.

810
00:56:15,876 --> 00:56:17,036
And that's it.

811
00:56:17,076 --> 00:56:17,716
It's power politics.

812
00:56:17,856 --> 00:56:18,696
So we're not going to, you know,

813
00:56:18,956 --> 00:56:19,636
not trying to,

814
00:56:19,636 --> 00:56:21,876
not trying to sugarcoat this folks.

815
00:56:21,996 --> 00:56:23,296
This is what we have to do.

816
00:56:23,556 --> 00:56:24,316
Well, I mean,

817
00:56:24,396 --> 00:56:26,236
and through his credit in that respect,

818
00:56:26,316 --> 00:56:26,756
that's the,

819
00:56:26,896 --> 00:56:28,056
and that's what he's doing.

820
00:56:28,416 --> 00:56:28,596
Well,

821
00:56:28,636 --> 00:56:31,156
that's going to take the political hit for it as well.

822
00:56:31,356 --> 00:56:31,936
I've noticed.

823
00:56:32,296 --> 00:56:32,756
Well, that was,

824
00:56:32,856 --> 00:56:34,196
that was like the point I was going to make,

825
00:56:34,196 --> 00:56:37,056
like the timing of it all leading up to midterms,

826
00:56:37,056 --> 00:56:39,776
like another form of collateral damage is possible.

827
00:56:40,096 --> 00:56:40,856
What happens in November?

828
00:56:41,556 --> 00:56:45,796
Trump said the other day, he said, someone asked him directly about the, well, why did you do this?

829
00:56:45,876 --> 00:56:49,816
It may hurt you in terms of, he's like, because it's the right thing to do.

830
00:56:50,676 --> 00:56:59,816
And if I have to make every decision based on what some short-term political gain or loss is going to net me, I can't govern the country.

831
00:57:00,136 --> 00:57:01,816
This is the right thing to do, and I get it.

832
00:57:02,256 --> 00:57:05,776
And I'll, you know, and basically, I'll fix it in post if I have to.

833
00:57:06,376 --> 00:57:10,756
I think he'll be fine from a political perspective if this thing doesn't drag on too far.

834
00:57:10,756 --> 00:57:14,916
And again, everybody like trying to turn around and say, oh, it's not over in three days.

835
00:57:14,996 --> 00:57:16,216
And it's clearly awesome.

836
00:57:16,336 --> 00:57:19,716
That's just adjent prop, a low quality Iranian adjent prop.

837
00:57:19,776 --> 00:57:20,356
That's bullshit.

838
00:57:22,136 --> 00:57:23,876
It's also high.

839
00:57:23,956 --> 00:57:26,776
It's also people in high neuroticism that are worried about.

840
00:57:27,116 --> 00:57:35,596
I have friends who are hyper worried about what Israel is trying to get us to do and what they're going to do.

841
00:57:35,996 --> 00:57:40,416
And I and we're talking about people who are Israeli.

842
00:57:40,756 --> 00:57:51,036
okay. And I've been listening to them very carefully. Um, and, um, and I understand their

843
00:57:51,036 --> 00:58:01,776
worry. And then again, at one point I said, but you know, you know, yeah, choose being nervous

844
00:58:01,776 --> 00:58:06,396
about things. It's kind of part of the course. There are, there are people that are, that are,

845
00:58:06,396 --> 00:58:11,356
that are high in anxiety and they have every right to be i'm not again that's not a judgment

846
00:58:11,356 --> 00:58:16,736
right that's just a statement of you know the dominant personality traits of most jews and

847
00:58:16,736 --> 00:58:21,116
like i grew up in new york i grew up on behalf of my friends i mean seriously dude i grew up in

848
00:58:21,116 --> 00:58:26,396
like new york like do you understand that more p more jews live in new york city than live in

849
00:58:26,396 --> 00:58:33,556
tel aviv right like i grew up in upstate new york like half of my own half of the kids that i

850
00:58:33,556 --> 00:58:38,816
took my honors classes in high school with that i went to school with from the time i'm

851
00:58:38,816 --> 00:58:44,816
fucking five until i graduated at 18 half of these kids were jewish i mean so many of them i didn't

852
00:58:44,816 --> 00:58:49,336
think it was whether i didn't give a shit one way the other half were italian the 20 10 percent of

853
00:58:49,336 --> 00:58:53,596
them were irish i'm not kidding right it was literally like you know so a couple of irish

854
00:58:53,596 --> 00:59:00,356
a bunch of italians and a bunch of jewish kids and a couple of heritage you know crosses that

855
00:59:00,356 --> 00:59:02,176
were effectively heritage Americans.

856
00:59:03,096 --> 00:59:05,816
You know, I mean, I, you know,

857
00:59:05,916 --> 00:59:07,316
I'll give you a perfect example.

858
00:59:07,416 --> 00:59:08,876
My best friend that I grew up with

859
00:59:08,876 --> 00:59:11,536
all my entire life, all the way up to 18,

860
00:59:12,156 --> 00:59:16,296
his mom's family traces back to Francis Lewis,

861
00:59:16,296 --> 00:59:18,256
who signed the frigging Declaration of Independence

862
00:59:18,256 --> 00:59:20,196
and his father was a German Jew.

863
00:59:22,036 --> 00:59:22,476
Okay.

864
00:59:22,736 --> 00:59:23,956
And he was the town engineer.

865
00:59:26,916 --> 00:59:28,096
And they were Democrats.

866
00:59:28,096 --> 00:59:31,036
and my dad was like the only Republican in town.

867
00:59:31,476 --> 00:59:32,036
Like, you know what I mean?

868
00:59:32,176 --> 00:59:33,976
Like, not really.

869
00:59:34,116 --> 00:59:36,416
It's, you know, upstate New York is much more red than,

870
00:59:36,416 --> 00:59:39,316
you know, I'm talking not very upstate New York.

871
00:59:39,436 --> 00:59:40,436
I grew up in Orange County.

872
00:59:42,336 --> 00:59:43,696
And it was just like, you know,

873
00:59:43,716 --> 00:59:47,796
it's like the Bronx, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, right?

874
00:59:48,776 --> 00:59:50,056
So it's just up the Hudson River,

875
00:59:50,156 --> 00:59:51,176
about an hour north of the city.

876
00:59:54,116 --> 00:59:54,636
Is there?

877
00:59:54,676 --> 00:59:57,416
No, I'm like, I'm very comfortable with understanding

878
00:59:58,096 --> 01:00:01,156
those people.

879
01:00:01,376 --> 01:00:03,016
In that respect, what I know,

880
01:00:03,156 --> 01:00:04,916
I'm like, I'm friends that are really good at you.

881
01:00:05,216 --> 01:00:06,976
But they're also lovely people.

882
01:00:07,576 --> 01:00:08,436
What are they worried?

883
01:00:08,876 --> 01:00:11,096
They're worried about Israel going off half-cocked

884
01:00:11,096 --> 01:00:13,336
and wanting

885
01:00:13,336 --> 01:00:14,376
to do what they did

886
01:00:14,376 --> 01:00:15,796
in Gaza

887
01:00:15,796 --> 01:00:19,216
to the Iranians and getting the ISA to do it

888
01:00:19,216 --> 01:00:19,536
for them.

889
01:00:19,536 --> 01:00:21,496
And I don't

890
01:00:21,496 --> 01:00:22,976
have a... Again,

891
01:00:23,356 --> 01:00:24,896
they're saying this

892
01:00:24,896 --> 01:00:26,856
because

893
01:00:26,856 --> 01:00:35,396
they're, you know, this is, you know, they're not cheering this. They're very worried about it.

894
01:00:35,436 --> 01:00:38,416
They don't want to see that because then they say then, and then, and then they go from there to,

895
01:00:38,536 --> 01:00:43,776
and then World War III happens, you know, and none of us want that. So that's their, you know,

896
01:00:43,776 --> 01:00:47,556
they're going through the tail risk that, and they're, but they're focusing on the weaknesses

897
01:00:47,556 --> 01:00:53,216
and threats of the SWOT analysis, SWOT analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats.

898
01:00:53,356 --> 01:00:56,796
They're focused on weaknesses and threats as opposed to strengths and opportunities.

899
01:00:56,856 --> 01:01:22,996
Now, so what I tend to do, because so many people focus on weakness and threat, because that sells click-wise, and because that is the default state of our media, both mainstream, conventional, legacy, and alternative, and all of the psyops that these people have access to money-wise to produce,

900
01:01:22,996 --> 01:01:32,756
I tend to stay and spend more of my time looking at the converse because that's who I am and look

901
01:01:32,756 --> 01:01:36,196
at the strengths and the opportunities and then try and balance everything out because the

902
01:01:36,196 --> 01:01:40,496
weaknesses and threats are like in front of everybody but no one's talking about the strengths

903
01:01:40,496 --> 01:01:45,356
and the opportunity very few are talking about the strengths and opportunities and so you know

904
01:01:45,356 --> 01:01:49,496
again you can hate me for it if you want I'm talking to the audience not you I know you not

905
01:01:49,496 --> 01:01:54,016
you hate me for it if you want that's fine you can call me i've been a part of the seven thousand

906
01:01:54,016 --> 01:02:00,196
dollar club or i'm this and that shit like i don't care like i am like i get accused of that 20 times

907
01:02:00,196 --> 01:02:09,136
a day on twitter it's great um i just have a very large block file not hard right um and uh and i'm

908
01:02:09,136 --> 01:02:13,536
still such a fundamentally free speech kind of guy i still feel bad about blocking people even though

909
01:02:13,536 --> 01:02:18,496
i know they're bots i mean i want to have a conversation with everyone i'm not i know i

910
01:02:18,496 --> 01:02:22,036
can't do that. I'm not in a position to do that anymore. I'm not a guy with 1200 people

911
01:02:22,036 --> 01:02:38,274
following or 150 people following me on Twitter trying to have a conversation I a guy with a fairly reasonably platform that trying to move the needle and interject you know some something approaching signal into all of this

912
01:02:38,274 --> 01:02:44,274
noise for you to digest and do with what you will. I don't, you know, I don't, I have no control over

913
01:02:44,274 --> 01:02:48,374
that. So I'm not going to try. And if you want to have a conversation with me, honestly, like you

914
01:02:48,374 --> 01:02:52,334
and I do, whenever we get together, um, you want to have that, even have that on Twitter, we can do

915
01:02:52,334 --> 01:02:57,474
that just understand that my hackles are up all the time because they have to be so you know come

916
01:02:57,474 --> 01:03:02,974
in i mean to the audience if you want to have a conversation with me on twitter come in and make

917
01:03:02,974 --> 01:03:08,334
sure that you're you structure your tweet properly don't say tom i love you but that's an auto block

918
01:03:08,334 --> 01:03:14,854
because that's mi6 like all day every day okay just don't say that like just just come in and

919
01:03:14,854 --> 01:03:20,434
go and say honest question blah blah blah if i answer you with an with an honest response

920
01:03:20,434 --> 01:03:25,114
and you give me a second honest, an honest response to that.

921
01:03:25,194 --> 01:03:27,674
I know, I know that you're not going to get blocked anytime soon.

922
01:03:27,934 --> 01:03:32,114
I'll say just like lose patience with your argument or just mute you or whatever.

923
01:03:32,634 --> 01:03:34,954
But I will at least give you the opportunity.

924
01:03:35,194 --> 01:03:37,974
Like, like a lot of people, they'll get one strike now.

925
01:03:38,034 --> 01:03:39,274
I used to give everybody three strikes.

926
01:03:39,274 --> 01:03:41,874
Now you get, you get a lot of people get one.

927
01:03:42,074 --> 01:03:42,974
Most people get three.

928
01:03:43,494 --> 01:03:47,434
And a lot of people don't, you know, get an infant number because I know they're,

929
01:03:47,534 --> 01:03:49,874
because I've been talking with them for so long that I know they're the people.

930
01:03:49,874 --> 01:03:51,994
they may disagree with me that's fine

931
01:03:51,994 --> 01:03:53,574
so

932
01:03:53,574 --> 01:03:55,374
leaning into strengths and opportunities

933
01:03:55,374 --> 01:03:57,694
I mean I think the most

934
01:03:57,694 --> 01:03:59,754
obvious if you're looking to the

935
01:03:59,754 --> 01:04:00,994
fog of war is

936
01:04:00,994 --> 01:04:03,974
this sort of

937
01:04:03,974 --> 01:04:05,834
shifting of

938
01:04:05,834 --> 01:04:07,954
leverage in terms

939
01:04:07,954 --> 01:04:09,674
of control over energy systems

940
01:04:09,674 --> 01:04:11,054
from the Mideast

941
01:04:11,054 --> 01:04:13,494
to the United States

942
01:04:13,494 --> 01:04:15,634
and I think there was a deal between Japan

943
01:04:15,634 --> 01:04:17,614
and the US yesterday with

944
01:04:17,614 --> 01:04:19,714
selling Alaskan

945
01:04:19,714 --> 01:04:21,394
oil to Japanese.

946
01:04:22,574 --> 01:04:23,794
Inas El-Haji had

947
01:04:23,794 --> 01:04:25,874
that analysis

948
01:04:25,874 --> 01:04:26,934
a few days ago.

949
01:04:27,414 --> 01:04:29,634
I'm actually going to speak with Inas on Monday.

950
01:04:32,134 --> 01:04:34,174
Inas is an interesting guy.

951
01:04:34,174 --> 01:04:36,034
I don't always agree with him, but he's at least not.

952
01:04:36,334 --> 01:04:37,694
I think he's an honest broker.

953
01:04:38,134 --> 01:04:40,234
Well, he actually, part of his analysis

954
01:04:40,234 --> 01:04:42,154
made me think of you because there was a whole narrative

955
01:04:42,154 --> 01:04:43,434
about they're only letting

956
01:04:43,434 --> 01:04:46,254
Chinese ships through because they're

957
01:04:46,254 --> 01:04:48,494
settling in yuan

958
01:04:48,494 --> 01:04:50,354
outside the dollar, and this is like a retaliation,

959
01:04:50,474 --> 01:04:52,374
but then Anas pointed out, well, actually,

960
01:04:52,434 --> 01:04:54,614
the Chinese ships are getting through because they have Chinese insurance,

961
01:04:54,914 --> 01:04:57,014
and they are actually insured.

962
01:04:57,234 --> 01:04:58,414
I was like, oh, I didn't hear that.

963
01:04:58,654 --> 01:05:01,314
They're insured, and the Iranians don't dare,

964
01:05:01,594 --> 01:05:03,414
as Anas has pointed out multiple times,

965
01:05:03,634 --> 01:05:07,294
the Iranians actually don't dare blow up a bunch of oil tankers

966
01:05:07,294 --> 01:05:09,434
because then they can't run their desalination plants,

967
01:05:09,434 --> 01:05:12,354
and then they destroy their power base by cutting off their head

968
01:05:12,354 --> 01:05:16,814
despite their nose, their very large Persian noses.

969
01:05:16,814 --> 01:05:18,074
You know what I mean?

970
01:05:18,174 --> 01:05:21,374
It's a zone in that respect.

971
01:05:21,694 --> 01:05:24,594
Do you view this as one of the strengths of now a potential outcome?

972
01:05:24,694 --> 01:05:24,974
Oh, yeah.

973
01:05:25,054 --> 01:05:26,054
No, it's absolutely a strength.

974
01:05:26,174 --> 01:05:30,414
It's absolutely the, I think it's the point of the entire exercise.

975
01:05:30,914 --> 01:05:39,814
The point of the entire exercise is to remove the straight as a physical choke point for the entire world if the entire world wants it to happen.

976
01:05:39,814 --> 01:05:46,194
Meaning if the people on this, the people on, this is the problem with the straights and the Persian Gulf.

977
01:05:46,814 --> 01:05:52,034
So one side doesn't want, wants everybody, doesn't really want the oil to flow.

978
01:05:52,274 --> 01:06:05,694
They want to use it as a means by which to, you know, either put up a toll booth or, I'm talking about the Iranians now, or threaten everybody and then use that to get advantages and then get rent in other forms, right?

979
01:06:06,234 --> 01:06:09,654
Concessions that they don't deserve, money, pallets of money from Obama, whatever the fuck it is.

980
01:06:09,834 --> 01:06:14,774
On the other side are all the Gulf states, and they're playing, and they've been playing the double game for years.

981
01:06:14,774 --> 01:06:21,874
and you note that Trump has like worked really hard to bring them all in line and you know like

982
01:06:21,874 --> 01:06:26,954
Qatar and Bahrain and others they're all UAE they're all in fucking London's pocket back but

983
01:06:26,954 --> 01:06:31,234
they've been in London's back pocket for years like they're not they're not independent actors

984
01:06:31,234 --> 01:06:35,974
either it is again two sides of the same coin here or the same side of two different coins same thing

985
01:06:35,974 --> 01:06:41,714
they just want to sell oil right they just want to make money they're just you know they're just

986
01:06:41,714 --> 01:06:43,534
about the nouveau riche Arabs

987
01:06:43,534 --> 01:06:44,934
at the end of the day.

988
01:06:47,414 --> 01:06:48,374
But Trump

989
01:06:48,374 --> 01:06:50,494
has an ally

990
01:06:50,494 --> 01:06:52,994
in MBS in Saudi Arabia.

991
01:06:53,154 --> 01:06:53,714
Saudi Arabia

992
01:06:53,714 --> 01:06:55,974
rules the roost.

993
01:06:56,514 --> 01:06:57,754
These guys are effectively

994
01:06:57,754 --> 01:06:59,454
just the same group of people.

995
01:07:04,334 --> 01:07:04,654
So

996
01:07:04,654 --> 01:07:06,034
he goes back,

997
01:07:06,034 --> 01:07:07,274
go back to Trump's first

998
01:07:07,274 --> 01:07:08,634
foreign

999
01:07:08,634 --> 01:07:10,994
visit.

1000
01:07:11,714 --> 01:07:13,874
first term, where'd he go?

1001
01:07:13,974 --> 01:07:14,574
With Saudi Arabia.

1002
01:07:16,134 --> 01:07:17,954
And it was the start

1003
01:07:17,954 --> 01:07:19,754
of this process that we're

1004
01:07:19,754 --> 01:07:20,834
not paying off now.

1005
01:07:21,634 --> 01:07:23,234
So we end that

1006
01:07:23,234 --> 01:07:25,714
nonsense where

1007
01:07:25,714 --> 01:07:27,774
everybody gets to pay, gets to charge

1008
01:07:27,774 --> 01:07:29,914
a little extra for the oil and their LNG and this

1009
01:07:29,914 --> 01:07:31,674
and that and everything else because of the

1010
01:07:31,674 --> 01:07:33,494
Persian Gulf and because of the Straits of our moves

1011
01:07:33,494 --> 01:07:34,434
and because we've got

1012
01:07:34,434 --> 01:07:38,054
this whole network of incentives

1013
01:07:38,054 --> 01:07:39,434
bound up on this

1014
01:07:39,434 --> 01:07:41,554
really messy chess board.

1015
01:07:41,714 --> 01:07:45,634
Right. And I'm going to, I'm going to make a, I'm going to make a,

1016
01:07:45,634 --> 01:07:50,794
an analogy here in a minute that I think you'll appreciate.

1017
01:07:53,314 --> 01:08:00,034
But the straights don't have to be a physical choke point, right? It doesn't, it doesn't have

1018
01:08:00,034 --> 01:08:06,674
to be. It is this way because of this, this messy chessboard that the British and the French and,

1019
01:08:06,674 --> 01:08:11,634
and, and the local players have all created for everybody else to fucking deal with.

1020
01:08:11,714 --> 01:08:13,714
And then we were forced.

1021
01:08:14,254 --> 01:08:20,074
And then we, because we were getting paid on our oligarchs were also getting paid for years on this.

1022
01:08:20,134 --> 01:08:22,754
And we were aligned with the British to do this terrible friggin shit.

1023
01:08:23,134 --> 01:08:25,614
Like, you know, we were getting paid too.

1024
01:08:25,914 --> 01:08:26,634
Okay, fine.

1025
01:08:26,714 --> 01:08:28,454
And then we were in worse than everything else.

1026
01:08:28,554 --> 01:08:29,714
The British were doing it all.

1027
01:08:29,774 --> 01:08:30,954
And we were getting blamed for it.

1028
01:08:31,354 --> 01:08:33,874
As the world was getting tired of this whole thing.

1029
01:08:33,894 --> 01:08:36,334
Because we all, everybody's tired of the American empire.

1030
01:08:36,334 --> 01:08:38,814
Like running around like free Rambo without a job strap.

1031
01:08:38,814 --> 01:08:41,494
Blowing up people, starting color revolutions and all this shit.

1032
01:08:41,494 --> 01:08:44,434
We're all tired of this game, but it's the British's game.

1033
01:08:45,154 --> 01:08:49,014
But we're getting all the flack for it, right?

1034
01:08:49,254 --> 01:08:51,934
And in some ways, the Iranians are getting a lot of our flack now.

1035
01:08:52,774 --> 01:08:57,014
So how about we all stop taking flack for somebody else?

1036
01:08:57,814 --> 01:08:58,834
Let's handle that system.

1037
01:08:59,954 --> 01:09:03,254
That's basically what Trump's offer has been to everybody in the region.

1038
01:09:04,474 --> 01:09:08,714
The countries that got to show up at the Board of Peace to rebuild Gaza

1039
01:09:08,714 --> 01:09:15,674
is your um is your prima facie evidence that everybody's ready for this moreover russia and

1040
01:09:15,674 --> 01:09:20,494
china trying to bring as many people into the bricks is also prima facie evidence that everybody's

1041
01:09:20,494 --> 01:09:26,194
tired of the game but with a different outcome right that was built if that was built on the

1042
01:09:26,194 --> 01:09:31,474
premise that the united states was inseparable from nato in europe right that's what bricks was

1043
01:09:31,474 --> 01:09:35,394
based on but if that is no longer the case because clearly trump wants out of fucking nato and he

1044
01:09:35,394 --> 01:09:39,234
months out of all this shit, well, then Brexit is unnecessary now. So now the Board of Peace

1045
01:09:39,234 --> 01:09:45,054
becomes a much more interesting angle on this because now it circumvents all the post-World

1046
01:09:45,054 --> 01:09:51,834
War II institutions that were created, the IMF, the World Bank, specifically the UN,

1047
01:09:52,174 --> 01:09:55,974
obviously now NATO and all this stuff. All these things can be broken down. So there's an

1048
01:09:55,974 --> 01:10:02,054
opportunity, right? Here's the strength. We get rid of the straits and the whole chaos premium of

1049
01:10:02,054 --> 01:10:06,194
the entire planet. If you take Iran off the board, you take Lloyd's of London off the board,

1050
01:10:06,254 --> 01:10:09,334
you take this, you bring the Arab countries in line and say, look, at the end of the day,

1051
01:10:09,334 --> 01:10:14,314
you have to like, you know, you have to pay. If you don't want to provide shipping insurance for

1052
01:10:14,314 --> 01:10:18,654
your own ships, you don't want to insure your own voyages, that's fine. We'll do it for you.

1053
01:10:18,674 --> 01:10:22,854
You can do it through our system. And you don't want to build a Navy? Fine. You only want to

1054
01:10:22,854 --> 01:10:27,834
build a commercial fleet? Fine. Then you're going to pay the U.S. Navy and the U.S. insurance system

1055
01:10:27,834 --> 01:10:32,534
directly so the american taxpayers want to pay for it we can turn a cost center

1056
01:10:32,534 --> 01:10:36,374
into a mild profit center with a cost plus business model

1057
01:10:36,374 --> 01:10:44,354
that's the way trump is thinking about this and that is a strength of the entire world

1058
01:10:44,354 --> 01:10:49,234
because now all of a sudden the chaos premium for goods and services and moving shit around the world

1059
01:10:49,234 --> 01:10:55,314
comes down because there's nobody actually fomenting well assuming that the united states

1060
01:10:55,314 --> 01:11:01,434
and revert to all the shit that we learned from the British and start then becoming the dudes that

1061
01:11:01,434 --> 01:11:06,294
do the terrible thing. But if you look at the way Trump has been building all of his trade deals,

1062
01:11:06,774 --> 01:11:11,334
he's been building his trade deals to cut everybody as a partner. Hey, let's get your

1063
01:11:11,334 --> 01:11:15,614
natural gas or your oil or your minerals or whatever, and let's get it. Let's get them up

1064
01:11:15,614 --> 01:11:19,434
out of the ground. Let's build businesses. And let's put those businesses in Australia,

1065
01:11:19,434 --> 01:11:24,154
where we're extracting the iron ore from or whatever it is that we're going to do with the

1066
01:11:24,154 --> 01:11:30,594
Australians or the coal or this or that. Same thing in Thailand, same thing in Central and

1067
01:11:30,594 --> 01:11:35,854
South America. He's trying to cut everybody in as a partner, not be a colonial extraction

1068
01:11:35,854 --> 01:11:41,094
saying, we want all your oil at pennies on the dollar. No, we just want everybody to pay retail.

1069
01:11:41,994 --> 01:11:45,854
And maybe at the end of the day, we really, you know, and again, like, and this is how you know

1070
01:11:45,854 --> 01:11:50,214
that you're dealing with Americans and not Jews, because he wants everybody to pay retail. Oh,

1071
01:11:50,214 --> 01:11:51,674
I'm sorry, I just made a joke, didn't I?

1072
01:11:51,874 --> 01:11:55,054
And make money by bringing down the cost of protection.

1073
01:11:55,654 --> 01:11:58,354
Right, the cost of protection, the cost of the chaos.

1074
01:11:58,754 --> 01:12:03,234
What does it cost to run the world in insurance costs

1075
01:12:03,234 --> 01:12:05,694
and forex costs and this and that

1076
01:12:05,694 --> 01:12:07,094
and the stress of the budget,

1077
01:12:07,194 --> 01:12:09,034
the political costs domestically?

1078
01:12:09,194 --> 01:12:10,674
And we all have to spend,

1079
01:12:11,154 --> 01:12:13,174
how much money are we spending on income taxes

1080
01:12:13,174 --> 01:12:14,934
and regulatory fees and this?

1081
01:12:15,014 --> 01:12:18,774
And then all this like draws that we're all looking at.

1082
01:12:18,774 --> 01:12:20,814
I saw something this afternoon that was hilarious.

1083
01:12:21,334 --> 01:12:23,754
And, you know, again, at the end of the day, I'm like, what does it mean?

1084
01:12:24,054 --> 01:12:30,174
But somebody ran an analysis through Grok of, like, the entirety of the EU's regulatory scheme.

1085
01:12:30,294 --> 01:12:32,694
And Grok said, we can get rid of 86% of it.

1086
01:12:33,834 --> 01:12:37,294
And nothing, and honestly, nothing about the EU would change, I think.

1087
01:12:37,354 --> 01:12:41,034
Because I think it was, you know, it's like, and we can do the same thing with the Code of Federal Regulations.

1088
01:12:41,034 --> 01:12:44,594
Like, the CFR, the Code of the CFR, have you ever read the CFR?

1089
01:12:44,994 --> 01:12:45,274
No.

1090
01:12:45,274 --> 01:12:57,094
Like, I've had to, when I used to be a chemist, I used to have to read all the code of federal regulations for the sections pertaining to, you know, environmental analysis, which is where I was.

1091
01:12:57,134 --> 01:12:59,994
I was working in environmental labs, testing water and soil and everything else.

1092
01:13:00,154 --> 01:13:02,274
So I had to know what all the methods were.

1093
01:13:02,394 --> 01:13:03,594
They were on the CFR.

1094
01:13:04,394 --> 01:13:04,994
Like, they're on it.

1095
01:13:05,394 --> 01:13:07,374
And everything downstream.

1096
01:13:07,574 --> 01:13:08,674
So I had to know all those rules.

1097
01:13:08,754 --> 01:13:09,674
I had to know all that shit.

1098
01:13:09,674 --> 01:13:14,414
You wanted to be a QC officer of an accredited laboratory, and I had to know this stuff, right?

1099
01:13:14,414 --> 01:13:21,654
Like, I, dude, like, there's nothing, like, I'm already a difficult, I'm already, it's

1100
01:13:21,654 --> 01:13:23,254
really hard for me to read in the first place.

1101
01:13:23,334 --> 01:13:24,994
I've never been a particularly good reader.

1102
01:13:25,534 --> 01:13:26,514
And I'm not very fast.

1103
01:13:26,574 --> 01:13:28,734
Oh, my God, my eyes dry right the fuck out.

1104
01:13:28,754 --> 01:13:30,474
And I'm asleep in 13 seconds.

1105
01:13:30,734 --> 01:13:31,594
It's awful.

1106
01:13:32,414 --> 01:13:33,534
It's really bad.

1107
01:13:33,654 --> 01:13:34,774
I don't know how anybody does it.

1108
01:13:34,974 --> 01:13:42,234
What I want to touch on before is, like, obviously, the war, the narratives about the war, the

1109
01:13:42,234 --> 01:13:44,014
energy infrastructure, all very visible.

1110
01:13:44,414 --> 01:13:51,094
right in front of everybody one of my favorite sort of uh under the radar signals that i love

1111
01:13:51,094 --> 01:13:56,274
talking about what's going on with interest rates what um how are they reacting so it's

1112
01:13:56,274 --> 01:14:01,074
what are they telling you brilliantly actually this is why again this is a part of the reason

1113
01:14:01,074 --> 01:14:06,274
why when you ask me like how's it going i'm like everything is everything is proceeding as i have

1114
01:14:06,274 --> 01:14:12,174
foreseen i hate to say it right um i hate to invoke the sheave palpatine but you know um

1115
01:14:12,174 --> 01:14:19,494
um, British guilts, 10-year British guilts, uh, closed at just over 5% today. German,

1116
01:14:19,774 --> 01:14:25,254
uh, 10-year German bonds closed over 3%. LeGuard is losing control over the German 10-year,

1117
01:14:25,534 --> 01:14:31,254
um, because everybody's, money's going to the ground. So everything's getting sold.

1118
01:14:32,014 --> 01:14:36,534
Gold got hit, silver got hit. I didn't look at the equity markets. I can actually pull them up.

1119
01:14:36,534 --> 01:14:38,894
I'm sure that the Dow is down today a little bit.

1120
01:14:39,814 --> 01:14:42,154
And it's not really that important.

1121
01:14:42,294 --> 01:14:44,274
But with the big one, I was watching bond spreads.

1122
01:14:44,934 --> 01:14:48,634
And I've been watching them all week because I'm watching them widen.

1123
01:14:49,114 --> 01:14:57,534
And so while the U.S. yield curve is selling off, I mean, in this environment, money should go to ground, right?

1124
01:14:57,594 --> 01:14:58,934
Money should just go.

1125
01:14:58,994 --> 01:14:59,854
I don't know what the fuck to do.

1126
01:15:00,394 --> 01:15:01,754
Like oil is $100 a barrel.

1127
01:15:02,134 --> 01:15:02,994
I've got contracts.

1128
01:15:02,994 --> 01:15:05,774
I've got derivatives blowing up.

1129
01:15:05,774 --> 01:15:07,274
I've got private equity.

1130
01:15:07,874 --> 01:15:09,074
I need money.

1131
01:15:10,074 --> 01:15:10,754
That's it.

1132
01:15:12,714 --> 01:15:15,994
So the U.S. tenure closed to 438,

1133
01:15:16,334 --> 01:15:20,694
but the U.K. closed 62 basis points above that.

1134
01:15:21,154 --> 01:15:22,914
Now it was trading in the 20s before the war,

1135
01:15:23,634 --> 01:15:25,774
20 basis points over the U.S. rate,

1136
01:15:26,154 --> 01:15:26,994
now right into 62.

1137
01:15:28,154 --> 01:15:30,034
When it starts getting into the 60s,

1138
01:15:30,094 --> 01:15:31,074
governments start falling,

1139
01:15:31,874 --> 01:15:33,054
or something bad,

1140
01:15:33,234 --> 01:15:34,874
or the Brits need to cut a deal

1141
01:15:34,874 --> 01:15:36,374
in order to keep their government from falling,

1142
01:15:36,454 --> 01:15:37,374
as this has happened before.

1143
01:15:37,954 --> 01:15:40,554
So they're clearly the target here

1144
01:15:40,554 --> 01:15:44,174
because they're the ones that are losing control

1145
01:15:44,174 --> 01:15:44,754
over the markets.

1146
01:15:44,954 --> 01:15:47,034
Moreover, then we take it one step further

1147
01:15:47,034 --> 01:15:49,534
and we look at the Brent WTI spread.

1148
01:15:50,854 --> 01:15:52,454
And that's $13, $14.

1149
01:15:53,834 --> 01:15:54,994
What is that telling you?

1150
01:15:55,094 --> 01:15:56,894
It's telling you that the world is,

1151
01:15:57,434 --> 01:15:59,154
there's plenty of WTI out there,

1152
01:15:59,514 --> 01:16:02,194
but the Brent contract is rising.

1153
01:16:02,194 --> 01:16:07,814
you know oman i think oman was like loading at 160 a barrel today or something i don't know some

1154
01:16:07,814 --> 01:16:10,614
you know the numbers are all out there and everybody's doing their agit prop thing on

1155
01:16:10,614 --> 01:16:16,574
twitter because we're all looking at the same shit right um and we all think we're informed

1156
01:16:16,574 --> 01:16:18,534
we're all looking at the same shit we all think we're informed

1157
01:16:18,534 --> 01:16:25,934
right well what's important is what does that mean what it means is that trump is okay with

1158
01:16:25,934 --> 01:16:31,074
uh and you know in donald trump's world we're getting an extra 30 a barrel for oil

1159
01:16:31,074 --> 01:16:32,394
that we were before.

1160
01:16:35,554 --> 01:16:37,394
Qatar's not exporting LNG.

1161
01:16:37,694 --> 01:16:38,634
We got plenty of LNG.

1162
01:16:40,454 --> 01:16:44,314
Natural gas prices are $3 a million BTUs in the United States.

1163
01:16:45,554 --> 01:16:47,434
You know who's making money hand over fist right now?

1164
01:16:47,734 --> 01:16:48,174
Ten here.

1165
01:16:49,654 --> 01:16:52,794
The guys who run the big export terminal down in Louisiana,

1166
01:16:53,114 --> 01:16:55,914
they're making a fortune because LNG prices around the world

1167
01:16:55,914 --> 01:16:58,694
are through the roof and feedstock prices are boring.

1168
01:16:58,694 --> 01:17:03,654
or at the bottom of the long-end trading range coming out of winter,

1169
01:17:04,594 --> 01:17:07,974
where, come on, in like 10 years, going to make money hand over fist this year, right?

1170
01:17:10,074 --> 01:17:13,794
And their last earnings report was quite good, actually.

1171
01:17:16,174 --> 01:17:18,954
So Trump's saying, oh, yeah, we got plenty of energy.

1172
01:17:19,094 --> 01:17:19,574
This is great.

1173
01:17:19,714 --> 01:17:20,734
The country's getting rich.

1174
01:17:21,694 --> 01:17:25,014
In his mind, money that comes back to the United States in that respect

1175
01:17:25,014 --> 01:17:26,814
is the United States getting rich.

1176
01:17:27,214 --> 01:17:28,834
He's not wrong, right?

1177
01:17:28,854 --> 01:17:30,334
We're getting a premium from our stuff.

1178
01:17:30,714 --> 01:17:35,934
And so to him, that's a strength that gives him the opportunity to then turn around and continue to press harder.

1179
01:17:36,274 --> 01:17:45,974
Meanwhile, natural gas prices on the Dutch trading floor have doubled since before the war.

1180
01:17:47,734 --> 01:17:49,254
And they can't afford it there.

1181
01:17:49,794 --> 01:17:51,214
Now they're like screaming at everybody.

1182
01:17:51,394 --> 01:17:53,834
Now, they're screaming at everybody.

1183
01:17:53,934 --> 01:17:55,094
You have to turn down your air conditioners.

1184
01:17:55,194 --> 01:17:55,614
You have to do this.

1185
01:17:55,614 --> 01:17:57,074
You have to not heat your homes.

1186
01:17:57,234 --> 01:17:59,154
You have to take cold showers and all this stuff.

1187
01:18:00,214 --> 01:18:01,354
Typical frigging Europeans.

1188
01:18:01,634 --> 01:18:04,914
Like, we fucked up, but you have to do what we tell you to do.

1189
01:18:05,054 --> 01:18:06,274
How about no?

1190
01:18:07,874 --> 01:18:09,854
How about I'm going to buy whatever I can do?

1191
01:18:09,954 --> 01:18:12,134
And there's impoverished new people left and right.

1192
01:18:12,974 --> 01:18:15,474
And then there's Ursula von der Leyen standing out there going,

1193
01:18:15,574 --> 01:18:19,254
we haven't decided yet whether or not we're going to accept Russian oil.

1194
01:18:19,434 --> 01:18:22,354
Even though last year they bought more natural gas than the Russians

1195
01:18:22,354 --> 01:18:25,254
than they ever have, by the way, which is hilarious.

1196
01:18:25,254 --> 01:18:27,714
She does this shit, and it's just pathetic.

1197
01:18:28,514 --> 01:18:29,894
And they just laundered through India, right?

1198
01:18:30,454 --> 01:18:32,034
Yeah, I can just do that too, exactly.

1199
01:18:32,174 --> 01:18:33,114
It doesn't really matter.

1200
01:18:33,694 --> 01:18:36,994
Like, at the end of the day, I mean, it was the simplest run in the world, right?

1201
01:18:37,174 --> 01:18:39,214
St. Petersburg to Rotterdam and back again.

1202
01:18:39,874 --> 01:18:44,794
Like, it was the simplest run, and it's been shut off for four years.

1203
01:18:47,474 --> 01:18:51,354
And, okay, what do you think you're going to accomplish with this?

1204
01:18:51,354 --> 01:18:52,734
like

1205
01:18:52,734 --> 01:18:55,774
they still think that consensus

1206
01:18:55,774 --> 01:18:56,974
politics matters

1207
01:18:56,974 --> 01:18:59,834
consensus politics does

1208
01:18:59,834 --> 01:19:01,474
not matter notice how when

1209
01:19:01,474 --> 01:19:03,914
when they were trying to get

1210
01:19:03,914 --> 01:19:05,974
consensus politics over 90 billion

1211
01:19:05,974 --> 01:19:06,974
dollar loan to Ukraine

1212
01:19:06,974 --> 01:19:10,114
and Hungary and Slovakia

1213
01:19:10,114 --> 01:19:10,634
said no

1214
01:19:10,634 --> 01:19:12,814
they gave Ukraine the money

1215
01:19:12,814 --> 01:19:14,314
anyway

1216
01:19:14,314 --> 01:19:17,934
guess that velvet gloves gotten

1217
01:19:17,934 --> 01:19:19,834
worn real fucking thin because I can see

1218
01:19:19,834 --> 01:19:21,234
the iron fist you look you know

1219
01:19:21,354 --> 01:19:23,214
You Nazi bitch.

1220
01:19:23,614 --> 01:19:24,534
Like, yeah, seriously.

1221
01:19:24,974 --> 01:19:28,034
Like, there it is.

1222
01:19:28,094 --> 01:19:29,394
Oh, look, it's made of iron.

1223
01:19:29,394 --> 01:19:34,834
And it's even a little rusty because, you know, they lost control.

1224
01:19:35,154 --> 01:19:38,474
They don't even have the good steel going through the German plants.

1225
01:19:38,594 --> 01:19:41,474
They were coming out of frigging the iron ore coming out of the Sedaten land,

1226
01:19:41,634 --> 01:19:44,874
which is why we're invading the Czechs in the first place,

1227
01:19:44,894 --> 01:19:45,994
because they have the best steel.

1228
01:19:46,074 --> 01:19:48,614
And that's why Czech guns are better than everybody else's guns.

1229
01:19:48,994 --> 01:19:49,774
Yada, yada, yada, yada.

1230
01:19:49,774 --> 01:19:54,134
I'll now turn Marty's channel into a CZ commercial.

1231
01:19:54,914 --> 01:19:58,654
We'll be here all night while I show you pictures of my gun.

1232
01:19:58,874 --> 01:20:00,874
I'll go get my podcast gun and go bring it out.

1233
01:20:01,094 --> 01:20:04,154
I love my CZ. There's a reason for it. It's a great gun.

1234
01:20:04,614 --> 01:20:07,214
It's made out of this fucking Czech steel that you can't kill.

1235
01:20:10,094 --> 01:20:14,154
Do you think they're getting to the point where

1236
01:20:14,154 --> 01:20:18,914
they are stressed enough where it's like, okay, let's make a deal?

1237
01:20:18,914 --> 01:20:20,254
not quite yet

1238
01:20:20,254 --> 01:20:21,374
not quite yet

1239
01:20:21,374 --> 01:20:24,694
they're not going to give Trump this one yet

1240
01:20:24,694 --> 01:20:25,574
they're not

1241
01:20:25,574 --> 01:20:29,094
the French, the Germans, the Italians

1242
01:20:29,094 --> 01:20:29,774
the Japanese

1243
01:20:29,774 --> 01:20:33,014
interesting you say those four names together

1244
01:20:33,014 --> 01:20:35,014
the French, the Germans, the Italians, the Japanese

1245
01:20:35,014 --> 01:20:37,034
you mean our four enemies in World War II

1246
01:20:37,034 --> 01:20:39,314
and I mean that

1247
01:20:39,314 --> 01:20:40,334
when I say the French

1248
01:20:40,334 --> 01:20:42,554
they're all finally saying

1249
01:20:42,554 --> 01:20:44,414
we'll send ships to the

1250
01:20:44,414 --> 01:20:47,534
to the Strait of Hormuz to protect the oil

1251
01:20:47,534 --> 01:20:53,634
it only took them 24 hours you know trump's like we'll just leave nato all right all right fine

1252
01:20:53,634 --> 01:20:57,914
we'll come it's like i was like spain at the end of the beginning of the war we're not gonna let

1253
01:20:57,914 --> 01:21:02,914
you refill your ships in spain fine embargo spain i don't know that was just felipe he cray cray

1254
01:21:02,914 --> 01:21:08,074
that's not no no don't listen to him no no you can you can refill your ships like like

1255
01:21:08,074 --> 01:21:16,094
fuck do you think you have any leverage over the united states spain like really okay like this is

1256
01:21:16,094 --> 01:21:22,274
the part that everybody, I hate the, I know the, I know people hate it when I do this, but

1257
01:21:22,274 --> 01:21:28,254
as you know, everybody's tired of the vulgar American, you know, reminding everybody that

1258
01:21:28,254 --> 01:21:33,594
we're more powerful than they are, but kind of are. What you hope for is that we use that power

1259
01:21:33,594 --> 01:21:38,514
responsibly. And what everybody's angry about, including myself for many, many years that we

1260
01:21:38,514 --> 01:21:47,174
didn't. So how about to cut Trump a little bit of slack and say he's using this power. It's an

1261
01:21:47,174 --> 01:21:53,794
awesome power. The danger is that he gets the messianic complex and starts overusing it.

1262
01:21:56,074 --> 01:22:01,094
That's actually, to me, the biggest hell risk out here is that Donald Trump's sense of

1263
01:22:01,094 --> 01:22:04,574
grandiosity gets the better of him. I know that's why I'm not president.

1264
01:22:04,574 --> 01:22:10,814
mad king lens yeah mad king lens as you would say dude seriously that's why that's why there's

1265
01:22:10,814 --> 01:22:16,754
never going to be a president luongo because dude i'd have bombed iran fucking 15 years ago

1266
01:22:16,754 --> 01:22:25,294
and i and i'd use nukes i'm dude i'm italian and i'm a little sicilian i i i'll cray cray

1267
01:22:25,294 --> 01:22:34,254
um uh but i go really we're gonna play that game oh yeah you get into the disrespect game

1268
01:22:34,254 --> 01:22:36,194
with Italians like that's it we're done

1269
01:22:36,194 --> 01:22:38,554
we go from zero to IE to have no time

1270
01:22:38,554 --> 01:22:40,454
Trump is far more

1271
01:22:40,454 --> 01:22:41,774
far more

1272
01:22:41,774 --> 01:22:43,434
statesman like than I am

1273
01:22:43,434 --> 01:22:46,414
Dexter White and I talk about this shit all the time like there's a reason why

1274
01:22:46,414 --> 01:22:47,254
we're not president

1275
01:22:47,254 --> 01:22:50,554
we're good at what we

1276
01:22:50,554 --> 01:22:52,514
do for this reason and this is

1277
01:22:52,514 --> 01:22:54,014
our ceiling we're good

1278
01:22:54,014 --> 01:22:56,454
with this you know that's it no more

1279
01:22:56,454 --> 01:22:57,494
and

1280
01:22:57,494 --> 01:23:00,554
I don't

1281
01:23:00,554 --> 01:23:01,074
I had

1282
01:23:01,074 --> 01:23:04,094
Putin like wipe out the

1283
01:23:04,094 --> 01:23:06,574
What about the CIA in Afghanistan 15 years ago?

1284
01:23:07,174 --> 01:23:11,334
I'd have paid Putin to send the Spetsnats in and kill all the CIA.

1285
01:23:11,334 --> 01:23:11,834
And he's a poppy shield.

1286
01:23:12,354 --> 01:23:13,034
Oh, absolutely.

1287
01:23:13,294 --> 01:23:13,654
Absolutely.

1288
01:23:16,014 --> 01:23:19,934
No, and President Luongo, I would have done that at the inauguration on the Jumbotron.

1289
01:23:19,992 --> 01:23:28,192
I would have had the satellite footage of them getting of our guys getting wiped out by the Russian Spetsnats on the Jumbotron at the inauguration.

1290
01:23:29,072 --> 01:23:33,912
Yeah, no, no, not good.

1291
01:23:34,612 --> 01:23:38,452
Not very statesman like, but this shit is over.

1292
01:23:38,872 --> 01:23:40,032
No, this is not good.

1293
01:23:40,032 --> 01:23:49,892
So taking it, you know, coming back to reality and getting rid of all the, you know, Roger Waters, you know, wall-like fantasies.

1294
01:23:54,072 --> 01:24:00,332
What Trump is doing is a very, in many ways, targeted and measured thing.

1295
01:24:00,412 --> 01:24:03,692
It just doesn't look it because Iran is actually a sincere, was a sincere enemy.

1296
01:24:03,692 --> 01:24:05,692
I mean

1297
01:24:05,692 --> 01:24:07,952
the way I look at the way

1298
01:24:07,952 --> 01:24:09,812
Operation Epic Fury, I hate these fucking

1299
01:24:09,812 --> 01:24:12,052
names, but it is what it is, so Trump

1300
01:24:12,052 --> 01:24:14,092
Operation Epic Fury

1301
01:24:14,092 --> 01:24:15,432
oh my god dude, seriously

1302
01:24:15,432 --> 01:24:17,832
okay fine, Operation

1303
01:24:17,832 --> 01:24:19,492
Midnight Hammer, like okay whatever

1304
01:24:19,492 --> 01:24:21,832
it's like he's still running

1305
01:24:21,832 --> 01:24:23,172
The Apprentice or some shit but

1306
01:24:23,172 --> 01:24:27,012
at the beginning of it

1307
01:24:27,012 --> 01:24:29,972
they didn't fuck around, they respected

1308
01:24:29,972 --> 01:24:31,912
Iran's ability to strike back and that's

1309
01:24:31,912 --> 01:24:32,972
why they went in the way they did

1310
01:24:33,692 --> 01:24:39,832
And, you know, we can, you know, I'm trying to keep it as, and we're talking about heavy, heavy shit here.

1311
01:24:39,892 --> 01:24:42,172
So I'm trying to keep it at least reasonably entertaining, right?

1312
01:24:44,772 --> 01:24:47,732
Give the, you know, give the Iranians their due, right?

1313
01:24:48,512 --> 01:24:58,532
So one of the things I've thought about in this whole thing is the Iranians like to play chess because they created the game.

1314
01:24:58,872 --> 01:24:59,512
That's their game.

1315
01:25:01,032 --> 01:25:02,172
Chess is a Persian game.

1316
01:25:02,172 --> 01:25:05,092
yeah I mean maybe the Russians play it better than everybody else

1317
01:25:05,092 --> 01:25:05,592
you know

1318
01:25:05,592 --> 01:25:07,332
the great Russian

1319
01:25:07,332 --> 01:25:10,492
chess masters over the years right

1320
01:25:10,492 --> 01:25:13,032
but this isn't Iranian

1321
01:25:13,032 --> 01:25:14,112
games the way they think

1322
01:25:14,112 --> 01:25:16,632
people build games

1323
01:25:16,632 --> 01:25:19,172
and the games they build are a reflection of their culture

1324
01:25:19,172 --> 01:25:22,752
so

1325
01:25:22,752 --> 01:25:29,212
Europeans make very dry board games that are all about

1326
01:25:29,212 --> 01:25:30,532
they're all very technocratic

1327
01:25:30,532 --> 01:25:32,552
I play a lot of them

1328
01:25:32,552 --> 01:25:33,552
I like a lot of them

1329
01:25:33,552 --> 01:25:36,532
I have 200 of them on my bookshelf

1330
01:25:36,532 --> 01:25:37,692
down in Florida

1331
01:25:37,692 --> 01:25:40,492
I also have about 20 or 30

1332
01:25:40,492 --> 01:25:42,332
American games which are

1333
01:25:42,332 --> 01:25:42,832
messy

1334
01:25:42,832 --> 01:25:46,452
and there's a lot

1335
01:25:46,452 --> 01:25:48,492
of random and there's a lot of

1336
01:25:48,492 --> 01:25:50,692
we call them Ameritrash

1337
01:25:50,692 --> 01:25:52,612
I'm not kidding

1338
01:25:52,612 --> 01:25:54,412
in the board game community there's Ameritrash

1339
01:25:54,412 --> 01:25:55,052
and there's Euro

1340
01:25:55,052 --> 01:25:58,532
this is a Euro style game this is an Ameritrash

1341
01:25:58,532 --> 01:26:00,452
there's like all these not hybrids

1342
01:26:00,452 --> 01:26:01,192
that you're coming out with.

1343
01:26:01,432 --> 01:26:02,712
And then some of the game design stuff

1344
01:26:02,712 --> 01:26:03,312
is really interesting.

1345
01:26:04,192 --> 01:26:06,472
But what's the quintessential American game?

1346
01:26:08,352 --> 01:26:08,712
Monopoly?

1347
01:26:09,412 --> 01:26:09,632
No.

1348
01:26:10,412 --> 01:26:10,732
It's poker.

1349
01:26:11,272 --> 01:26:11,672
Oh, yeah.

1350
01:26:13,892 --> 01:26:15,772
Specifically, it's Texas Hold'em.

1351
01:26:16,372 --> 01:26:16,512
Yeah.

1352
01:26:17,412 --> 01:26:17,692
Bluff.

1353
01:26:17,952 --> 01:26:20,632
Specifically, not five-card stud,

1354
01:26:21,012 --> 01:26:21,892
or it's five-card draw.

1355
01:26:21,892 --> 01:26:24,432
Not five-card draw, not seven-card stud.

1356
01:26:25,012 --> 01:26:27,792
Not any of the Texas fucking Hold'em.

1357
01:26:27,792 --> 01:26:31,032
and specifically, no limit, Texas Hold'em.

1358
01:26:34,972 --> 01:26:37,952
Texas Hold'em is a game of partial,

1359
01:26:38,352 --> 01:26:40,032
it's a perfect game in that respect

1360
01:26:40,032 --> 01:26:45,292
because it's a game of somewhat hidden information

1361
01:26:45,292 --> 01:26:47,272
and somewhat shared information, right?

1362
01:26:47,712 --> 01:26:49,232
Cards in the middle, everybody gets shared,

1363
01:26:49,452 --> 01:26:50,572
but we all have our hold cards.

1364
01:26:51,452 --> 01:26:52,472
Those hold cards are everything.

1365
01:26:52,632 --> 01:26:53,652
How you bet your hold cards,

1366
01:26:53,652 --> 01:26:55,612
what your strategies are and everything else,

1367
01:26:55,912 --> 01:26:56,992
how you bluff your hold cards.

1368
01:26:57,552 --> 01:26:59,072
Iranians aren't particularly good at playing poker.

1369
01:26:59,872 --> 01:27:02,952
They're actually, I mean, the IRGC, the people who've been running Iran,

1370
01:27:03,392 --> 01:27:04,312
they're terrible at playing poker.

1371
01:27:04,712 --> 01:27:08,092
They're the worst poker players in the world because their tells are all over the place.

1372
01:27:08,872 --> 01:27:13,312
You can, I can watch, I can almost predict what they're going to say next

1373
01:27:13,312 --> 01:27:18,432
and whatever their little, whenever they sit down to start doing their negotiations.

1374
01:27:18,612 --> 01:27:20,532
Well, let's negotiate about this war we just lost.

1375
01:27:20,892 --> 01:27:23,292
You don't get to negotiate over what you've lost.

1376
01:27:23,632 --> 01:27:23,912
Sorry.

1377
01:27:24,592 --> 01:27:30,092
So what they did was they were trying to bind up the game board with all this chess.

1378
01:27:30,912 --> 01:27:32,792
Well, if this happens, then they do this.

1379
01:27:32,872 --> 01:27:35,392
And I've got this worked out six moves in advance.

1380
01:27:35,572 --> 01:27:40,032
And you've only got five moves in advance because you're Donald Trump and you're not, you know, you're Donald Trump.

1381
01:27:40,092 --> 01:27:42,912
You only think two moves in advance because you're an American.

1382
01:27:42,912 --> 01:27:44,912
We think six, seven, eight moves in advance.

1383
01:27:45,012 --> 01:27:48,892
And that's what the Iranian propaganda that we see on Twitter is all about.

1384
01:27:49,512 --> 01:27:53,272
Well, you don't realize that the Iranians have got this up their sleeve and then they're going to do this and then they're going to do this.

1385
01:27:53,272 --> 01:27:54,252
And I'm like, that's cute.

1386
01:27:55,472 --> 01:27:57,312
Trump's like, all in.

1387
01:27:58,392 --> 01:27:59,652
We're not playing chess.

1388
01:28:00,272 --> 01:28:01,212
We're playing poker.

1389
01:28:03,392 --> 01:28:03,812
Sun Tzu.

1390
01:28:04,272 --> 01:28:04,672
I don't know.

1391
01:28:04,832 --> 01:28:06,092
I haven't read Sun Tzu in years.

1392
01:28:06,172 --> 01:28:07,092
I don't remember much of it.

1393
01:28:07,152 --> 01:28:08,232
But I'll tell you this.

1394
01:28:08,532 --> 01:28:10,912
There's only a couple of precepts you really have to remember.

1395
01:28:12,052 --> 01:28:20,496
Always leave your enemy a golden bridge to retreat over And never fight on ground prepared by your enemy If you want to win

1396
01:28:22,096 --> 01:28:23,656
the Iranians and the British,

1397
01:28:23,896 --> 01:28:27,596
who also love to play this messy game,

1398
01:28:27,736 --> 01:28:30,596
and specifically, as Vince Lanchi reminded me

1399
01:28:30,596 --> 01:28:31,796
one day when we were doing this,

1400
01:28:31,836 --> 01:28:32,956
when I was having this conversation,

1401
01:28:33,036 --> 01:28:35,176
he's like, oh, and the British Open in chess

1402
01:28:35,176 --> 01:28:37,576
is to muck the whole fucking board up.

1403
01:28:38,356 --> 01:28:39,696
Just bind it all down.

1404
01:28:39,696 --> 01:28:41,156
It's called the British Open.

1405
01:28:41,656 --> 01:28:46,276
right i'm serious i has a name apparently i'm not a chess i'm not a chess player because i don't

1406
01:28:46,276 --> 01:28:51,716
have the fucking patience for it i'm a poker player and i play poker like trump i'm a very

1407
01:28:51,716 --> 01:28:56,976
aggressive poker player it gets it catches me in the ass and i have a very very certain limit i know

1408
01:28:56,976 --> 01:29:01,756
i know exactly where i'm going to lose all my money that's the guy i'm going to lose all my

1409
01:29:01,756 --> 01:29:08,876
money to yep there it is it's gone i many times um but at least i know my limit right i know my

1410
01:29:08,876 --> 01:29:12,556
I'm not making a pun about the no limit versus the limit.

1411
01:29:12,696 --> 01:29:17,076
I know what my ceiling is and skill as a poker player is.

1412
01:29:17,656 --> 01:29:23,316
I can have moments of brilliance, but I don't have the stamina to play 12, 15 hours and do it right.

1413
01:29:27,116 --> 01:29:32,996
But I understand well enough to know that what Trump did was he took a chess board and said,

1414
01:29:33,236 --> 01:29:34,256
we're not playing chess.

1415
01:29:34,536 --> 01:29:36,736
Game's over here, and it's no limit hold.

1416
01:29:36,736 --> 01:29:38,836
and I got a big stack

1417
01:29:38,836 --> 01:29:41,556
and you're fronting like you got a big stack

1418
01:29:41,556 --> 01:29:42,396
and a bunch of rebuys

1419
01:29:42,396 --> 01:29:45,696
but you have a teeny stack and I know you do

1420
01:29:45,696 --> 01:29:47,296
fuck you

1421
01:29:47,296 --> 01:29:49,836
I'm moving all in and I know you've got two ten offsuit

1422
01:29:49,836 --> 01:29:51,836
and I know you're playing a Doyle Brunson

1423
01:29:51,836 --> 01:29:52,836
and

1424
01:29:52,836 --> 01:29:55,116
we didn't flop a two or a ten

1425
01:29:55,116 --> 01:29:59,756
that's the way he played

1426
01:29:59,756 --> 01:30:00,156
this

1427
01:30:00,156 --> 01:30:03,116
and I

1428
01:30:03,116 --> 01:30:05,456
you know to me that's a

1429
01:30:05,456 --> 01:30:14,276
very smart and strategic dude like don't play their game he's done this so he's a power politics

1430
01:30:14,276 --> 01:30:21,456
kind of guy he's a power poker kind of guy he negotiates that way you know he does it all the

1431
01:30:21,456 --> 01:30:28,496
time the europeans keep wanting to play these technocratic games and then it's all about i

1432
01:30:28,496 --> 01:30:31,036
I scored 212 points and you scored 211.

1433
01:30:31,156 --> 01:30:31,856
So I won.

1434
01:30:33,316 --> 01:30:33,976
By what?

1435
01:30:34,036 --> 01:30:34,516
One point?

1436
01:30:34,916 --> 01:30:35,456
Like who cares?

1437
01:30:36,716 --> 01:30:37,596
You know, that kind of thing.

1438
01:30:37,696 --> 01:30:39,456
It's just like, it's very passive aggressive.

1439
01:30:39,696 --> 01:30:41,376
It's very, I mean, they're fun.

1440
01:30:41,436 --> 01:30:42,116
They're fun puzzles.

1441
01:30:42,216 --> 01:30:42,556
I'm getting it wrong.

1442
01:30:42,636 --> 01:30:43,816
I play a lot of these rooms.

1443
01:30:43,896 --> 01:30:46,936
And I think, and I play them for blood, of course.

1444
01:30:47,796 --> 01:30:50,116
But, you know, and they are fun and they're good diversions.

1445
01:30:50,116 --> 01:30:57,016
And they're also very good exercises for brain training and puzzle, you know, all that stuff.

1446
01:30:57,176 --> 01:30:57,396
Great.

1447
01:30:57,396 --> 01:30:59,316
but at the same time

1448
01:30:59,316 --> 01:31:00,996
at the end of the day

1449
01:31:00,996 --> 01:31:03,896
there's the messy shit about hidden information

1450
01:31:03,896 --> 01:31:06,736
tactics versus strategy

1451
01:31:06,736 --> 01:31:09,516
and how you sucker somebody into

1452
01:31:09,516 --> 01:31:11,456
making a move that they don't know how to plan

1453
01:31:11,456 --> 01:31:13,616
so I look at the Iranians and I'm like

1454
01:31:13,616 --> 01:31:15,456
oh look, their limit is

1455
01:31:15,456 --> 01:31:16,916
they can play at the 3-6 table

1456
01:31:16,916 --> 01:31:19,096
you know, if you're playing at the limit hold'em

1457
01:31:19,096 --> 01:31:21,756
Trump's a fucking 500-1000 player

1458
01:31:21,756 --> 01:31:23,576
like he can play

1459
01:31:23,576 --> 01:31:25,296
at the 500-1000 table

1460
01:31:25,296 --> 01:31:33,016
You know, he can walk in to Vegas with 60 rebates with, you know, with $60,000 in his pocket and comfortably play at that table.

1461
01:31:33,356 --> 01:31:33,796
Yeah.

1462
01:31:34,396 --> 01:31:34,616
Yeah.

1463
01:31:34,776 --> 01:31:42,836
The Aragotchi and those guys, you know, they better not bring more than $300 to the table or $500 to the table because they're going to get fucking white.

1464
01:31:43,596 --> 01:31:48,676
Well, I guess to end it on that, like when will we know if they have been white?

1465
01:31:49,616 --> 01:31:49,876
Hmm.

1466
01:31:50,976 --> 01:31:52,116
I think this thing's over next.

1467
01:31:52,116 --> 01:31:55,156
I think I hate to make predictions like this, obviously.

1468
01:31:55,296 --> 01:32:00,516
but we're starting to see the cracks the strips are starting to move these straights

1469
01:32:00,516 --> 01:32:05,976
trump laid out the conditions today for getting our insurance which is or getting our escort navy

1470
01:32:05,976 --> 01:32:10,856
escort which is you have to buy our insurance boys is of course arm twisting everybody behind

1471
01:32:10,856 --> 01:32:14,136
the scenes saying if you sign up with trump you're never gonna get any insurance from us ever again

1472
01:32:14,136 --> 01:32:18,056
and that's nice and that's going to slow things down it's part of the reason why this is taking

1473
01:32:18,056 --> 01:32:21,296
It's going to take longer than everybody is comfortable with.

1474
01:32:22,536 --> 01:32:29,656
The Iranians who are trying to negotiate are trying to negotiate with their pile of uranium and the Straits.

1475
01:32:29,796 --> 01:32:35,136
They're trying to set up a toll booth on Kashm Island and charge a toll.

1476
01:32:35,876 --> 01:32:41,696
That's cute and all, but the Tripoli and the light carriers are coming.

1477
01:32:41,696 --> 01:32:48,516
and that's a very big tell that Trump understands what the mission is there,

1478
01:32:48,956 --> 01:32:50,756
to bring the Marines in with those ships.

1479
01:32:51,176 --> 01:32:54,196
When I understand, I'm not a military armaments expert,

1480
01:32:54,316 --> 01:32:55,596
but I've talked to enough people who are.

1481
01:32:55,676 --> 01:32:57,936
They're like, no, these are the exact right tools for the job,

1482
01:32:58,276 --> 01:33:06,236
along with whatever else we're flying and what we're doing out of Bahrain and Doha.

1483
01:33:06,236 --> 01:33:25,660
So what I would say and now Diego Garcia because the British finally let us like yeah okay we were flying shit out of the area If we weren flying shit out of the area or Garcia because the British finally let us like yeah okay we were flying shit out of Diego If we weren flying shit out of Diego Garcia because the British were you know holding their nose and you know being British I lose respect for Trump

1484
01:33:25,860 --> 01:33:32,300
I would have flown fucking planes out of Diego Garcia on day one and go, fuck you, Keir Starmer.

1485
01:33:33,160 --> 01:33:37,120
Like, say what again, motherfucker, like Sam Jackson at the beginning of the Pulp Fiction.

1486
01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:38,460
Say what again, motherfucker.

1487
01:33:39,560 --> 01:33:39,740
What?

1488
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:40,920
I got guys.

1489
01:33:41,080 --> 01:33:44,140
I got snake eaters sitting in the north of England.

1490
01:33:44,240 --> 01:33:45,840
We'll just go and take fucking 10 Downing Street.

1491
01:33:46,000 --> 01:33:46,440
Fuck off.

1492
01:33:47,100 --> 01:33:47,980
We're doing this.

1493
01:33:48,080 --> 01:33:50,200
And we know you're involved.

1494
01:33:50,560 --> 01:33:56,400
And everything Trump has said, has done, his entire demeanor is so obvious.

1495
01:33:56,500 --> 01:33:57,480
This is what he's doing.

1496
01:33:58,000 --> 01:33:59,260
They're the fucking target.

1497
01:33:59,460 --> 01:34:00,840
He wants their business.

1498
01:34:01,220 --> 01:34:02,480
He wants their business.

1499
01:34:02,480 --> 01:34:09,800
and he wants to provide it cheaper and with less drama than what we've seen in the past.

1500
01:34:10,280 --> 01:34:14,900
And if you take all the nuclear weapons off the table, and I'm going to leave everybody with one last little bit of hope.

1501
01:34:16,280 --> 01:34:20,480
But all of those things, I think, are signals that if we see movement on all those fronts,

1502
01:34:21,140 --> 01:34:25,560
including the Iranians continuing to try and negotiate over a war they've lost,

1503
01:34:27,140 --> 01:34:31,040
that this could be over very quickly, two, three weeks, or whatever it's going to take.

1504
01:34:31,040 --> 01:34:37,420
oil prices will start to come down well we're we've got the secondary effects that there's a

1505
01:34:37,420 --> 01:34:43,260
a big there's a potential liquidity crunch here and and credit squeeze and banks are going to go

1506
01:34:43,260 --> 01:34:47,960
under and also i think that's already happening i'll be honest with you i think it's happening in

1507
01:34:47,960 --> 01:34:52,800
it was happening before i think it's happening in uae i think it's going to happen in london i think

1508
01:34:52,800 --> 01:34:56,800
it's going to happen in various other places i've already seen some stuff about that but

1509
01:34:56,800 --> 01:34:58,500
And the big one is this.

1510
01:35:00,100 --> 01:35:02,080
I'm going to just put this in everybody's head.

1511
01:35:03,420 --> 01:35:07,560
You do realize that maintaining nuclear weapons is extremely expensive.

1512
01:35:08,260 --> 01:35:12,280
They have a very high cost technical maintenance cycle.

1513
01:35:12,400 --> 01:35:16,260
They keep those warheads refreshed to the point where you have a critical mass.

1514
01:35:16,820 --> 01:35:18,760
Because if they go subcritical, they don't go boom.

1515
01:35:20,420 --> 01:35:23,880
So, supposedly, Pakistan is a nuclear state.

1516
01:35:25,880 --> 01:35:26,740
Pakistan's poor.

1517
01:35:26,800 --> 01:35:33,380
the british are poor can they mean have are they mean are they fronting that they have

1518
01:35:33,380 --> 01:35:37,840
even have nuclear weapons the israelis aren't particularly rich either by the way

1519
01:35:37,840 --> 01:35:45,360
unless we're you know we're uh maintaining them what about the british

1520
01:35:45,360 --> 01:35:52,720
warheads that are our warheads if trump is like fuck you people

1521
01:35:52,720 --> 01:35:56,140
i'm not going to maintain your nuclear weapons for you

1522
01:35:56,140 --> 01:36:01,880
we could be trump to me trump looks like a guy who just wants to get rid of nukes

1523
01:36:01,880 --> 01:36:08,820
like hey everybody let's get rid of the nukes and do we really need nukes anymore when we have

1524
01:36:08,820 --> 01:36:14,800
lasers from space yeah and drones have those and drones and this and everything else and precision

1525
01:36:14,800 --> 01:36:23,260
missiles which can hit 99 of the time hit military targets and leave the civilian population alone

1526
01:36:23,260 --> 01:36:28,500
why do we have to threaten civilian mass casualties the reason we develop nuclear

1527
01:36:28,500 --> 01:36:33,860
weapons is because we couldn't not hit civilian targets we had nothing but dumb bombs now we got

1528
01:36:33,860 --> 01:36:39,620
like these we now we can like put a fucking tomahawk through a goddamn window right like

1529
01:36:39,620 --> 01:36:47,340
we don't have to involve the people i mean we don't have to threaten the people this is not to

1530
01:36:47,340 --> 01:36:52,400
say that these wars are going to be fought with zero civilian casualties but we can minimize or

1531
01:36:52,400 --> 01:36:57,900
we can maximize the ratio of military assets wiped out versus civilian infrastructure and

1532
01:36:57,900 --> 01:37:02,680
civilian casualties and if we can reach that level and i think we're already there what the

1533
01:37:02,680 --> 01:37:08,280
fuck do we need nuclear weapons for anymore why don't we just spin down all that uranium and use

1534
01:37:08,280 --> 01:37:15,620
it to to power power plants and do other things with it wouldn't that be nice plutonium and

1535
01:37:15,620 --> 01:37:19,540
everything else wouldn't that be a better world have you all had enough weapons we have enough

1536
01:37:19,540 --> 01:37:24,260
weapons to beat the shit out of each other with conventional weapons the great uh using bitcoin

1537
01:37:24,260 --> 01:37:28,860
for denuclearization you prove that you're denuclearizing by hash rate going up it's been

1538
01:37:28,860 --> 01:37:36,080
a theory uh yeah yeah that that is that's not a bad it's not a bad argument like i i that's it's

1539
01:37:36,080 --> 01:37:40,320
something that's been in my head now for a little while i don't talk about it very often because

1540
01:37:40,320 --> 01:37:45,460
invariably we know i never get to it um but i've thought about it you know i've talked about it a

1541
01:37:45,460 --> 01:37:48,960
couple times now in the last month or so and the more i think about it the more i'm like

1542
01:37:48,960 --> 01:37:53,880
Like, I've just been saying, like, we have the ability to go back and fight 15th century wars.

1543
01:37:55,040 --> 01:38:17,324
Where the king raises an army the army meets on the field the two armies meet on the field they fight one retreats the other wins then the generals show and everybody calls a truce the generals show up they sign a peace treaty borders move And other than the armies that were mustered you know stealing from the people on their way in which they did

1544
01:38:17,524 --> 01:38:23,804
But other than that, and the taxes that were used from the people to pay for the army at the end of the day.

1545
01:38:24,764 --> 01:38:25,764
Yeah, and there were conscripts.

1546
01:38:25,904 --> 01:38:31,024
I know, but most of warfare wasn't fought by civilians.

1547
01:38:31,564 --> 01:38:32,504
They weren't threatened.

1548
01:38:32,504 --> 01:38:33,484
It was the King's War.

1549
01:38:33,584 --> 01:38:34,264
It was over there.

1550
01:38:34,984 --> 01:38:47,304
Now, it's far more the operative model than what we've been dealing with in the industrial age of warfare, which is horrific and horrible and an affront to humanity.

1551
01:38:48,104 --> 01:38:49,424
Why do we stop doing that?

1552
01:38:50,324 --> 01:38:53,404
If we have these precision weapons, we don't need to do that anymore.

1553
01:38:53,584 --> 01:38:56,604
We just blow the armor up and then look at each other and go, this is really dumb.

1554
01:38:56,664 --> 01:38:57,484
We're wasting money.

1555
01:38:57,804 --> 01:38:59,084
We're wasting good men.

1556
01:38:59,084 --> 01:39:06,984
like it's like it's like that it's like that scene in patent where he's like wiping out um like at

1557
01:39:06,984 --> 01:39:11,784
el guitar and this is the first at the first battle he goes what a waste of fine infantry

1558
01:39:11,784 --> 01:39:19,344
right yeah everything he says as his guys are wiping out the germans he's like god what a

1559
01:39:19,344 --> 01:39:27,744
what a waste of fine infantry yeah that's let's let's let's change the mindset that way i want

1560
01:39:27,744 --> 01:39:35,004
well i did on that i just want to say i asked you help me step back from the ledge somebody's been

1561
01:39:35,004 --> 01:39:38,824
looking through different lenses letting one lens dominate the other at different points in times i

1562
01:39:38,824 --> 01:39:46,044
hope you're right like that's uh that's sort of why marty everybody hopes you know obviously we

1563
01:39:46,044 --> 01:39:51,584
all you know i hope i'm right i don't know if i'm going to be right and you know and even if i'm only

1564
01:39:51,584 --> 01:39:57,344
65 right it's still better than what most people are projecting so you know we're going to be dealing

1565
01:39:57,344 --> 01:40:01,324
with probabilities here and we're going to be dealing with, you know, outcomes as best

1566
01:40:01,324 --> 01:40:04,984
we can. They're not, we're not going to be comfortable with all of them.

1567
01:40:05,404 --> 01:40:09,364
The return of power politics, when we've all been trained to believe in

1568
01:40:09,364 --> 01:40:13,024
consensus politics, makes us all uncomfortable.

1569
01:40:13,344 --> 01:40:17,124
Because when we watch people, when we watch people do it, we're like, holy shit.

1570
01:40:17,584 --> 01:40:21,204
Yeah. Because we were all told that that's the,

1571
01:40:21,364 --> 01:40:25,164
those are the actions of dictators. Well, what if they're not the actions of dictators?

1572
01:40:25,164 --> 01:40:29,484
What if that's actually what responsible leadership is supposed to look like?

1573
01:40:30,024 --> 01:40:30,184
Yeah.

1574
01:40:31,624 --> 01:40:32,024
Yeah.

1575
01:40:32,124 --> 01:40:34,084
I mean, I've never lived in it, so I don't know.

1576
01:40:34,184 --> 01:40:41,124
And my natural instinct is like yours to go, but I've had to like really embody that mindset.

1577
01:40:41,664 --> 01:40:52,424
And I was able to do so because I was able to go back to an old version of myself when I was younger and far more belligerent than I am today.

1578
01:40:52,424 --> 01:41:01,764
And go, oh, and then incorporate everything I've learned over the years about why the violence is wrong and all the shit's wrong.

1579
01:41:02,064 --> 01:41:04,424
And go, okay, nope.

1580
01:41:04,804 --> 01:41:06,964
Every once in a while, a war is just.

1581
01:41:07,904 --> 01:41:10,424
You can disagree with me whether you think this war is just or not.

1582
01:41:10,964 --> 01:41:17,584
Given the last 300 years of history and given how badly we've been fucking with the Iranian people, I'm sorry.

1583
01:41:17,864 --> 01:41:20,764
The IRGC is fucking evil and needs to be wiped that fuck off.

1584
01:41:20,764 --> 01:41:23,744
fuck off the line and I don't give a shit anymore. And I, and I'm done,

1585
01:41:23,744 --> 01:41:28,044
and I'm done being blackmailed by a bunch of belligerent frigging Muslims with

1586
01:41:28,044 --> 01:41:31,264
nuclear fire. I'm over it. And I'm, and I'm over it with the British,

1587
01:41:31,604 --> 01:41:34,104
the Limeys and I'm over it with the Jews and I'm over it with our, with,

1588
01:41:34,244 --> 01:41:37,924
with our people and everything else. No more, none. That's it. I'm done.

1589
01:41:38,204 --> 01:41:43,084
I check out at nuclear fucking fire. So let's, we'll, we'll, we'll,

1590
01:41:43,084 --> 01:41:45,364
we'll lay the, we'll, we'll plant the flag there.

1591
01:41:45,364 --> 01:41:47,224
And then we'll start working backwards from it.

1592
01:41:47,524 --> 01:41:49,564
Because somebody asked me that when I said that the other day on Twitter,

1593
01:41:49,564 --> 01:41:51,004
or somebody would go, well, what about Pakistan?

1594
01:41:51,104 --> 01:41:53,064
I'm like, I don't think Pakistan should have fucking nukes either.

1595
01:41:53,224 --> 01:41:55,924
And I'm still angry with the British for giving them to them in the first place.

1596
01:41:56,184 --> 01:41:58,364
As a matter of fact, I don't think the British should have fucking nuclear weapons.

1597
01:41:58,504 --> 01:42:01,544
What the fuck have they done to deserve nuclear weapons?

1598
01:42:03,644 --> 01:42:03,884
Yeah.

1599
01:42:05,184 --> 01:42:05,544
Done.

1600
01:42:06,944 --> 01:42:08,344
It's always a great way to end on Friday.

1601
01:42:09,464 --> 01:42:10,544
Yeah, that's the way I look at it.

1602
01:42:11,004 --> 01:42:14,704
Yeah, I think we should catch up in a few months.

1603
01:42:15,024 --> 01:42:18,944
Hopefully, again, like I said, I hope you're right in a few weeks.

1604
01:42:18,944 --> 01:42:19,184
Yeah.

1605
01:42:19,564 --> 01:42:20,164
Me too.

1606
01:42:20,504 --> 01:42:21,144
I really do.

1607
01:42:21,624 --> 01:42:25,364
And my schedule is going to be, you know, my podcast schedule is going to be down in April.

1608
01:42:25,524 --> 01:42:31,764
I've got, I go to Cornerstone with Calgary next week, and I've got a bunch of stuff happening in April and May and June.

1609
01:42:31,884 --> 01:42:35,984
Actually, I'm going to be traveling for most of the summer, and I'm going to be recovering from getting my tooth pulled.

1610
01:42:36,104 --> 01:42:37,024
I've got a lot of stuff going on.

1611
01:42:37,104 --> 01:42:38,104
So it's going to be one.

1612
01:42:38,204 --> 01:42:41,984
So, yeah, I think I'll probably be ready to chat with you again.

1613
01:42:42,324 --> 01:42:48,684
I mean, you know, I may or may not, but, you know, July is what is looking good, like late June, early July.

1614
01:42:48,684 --> 01:42:49,564
He did the summer.

1615
01:42:49,824 --> 01:42:50,504
He did the summer.

1616
01:42:51,064 --> 01:42:51,484
It'll be perfect.

1617
01:42:51,924 --> 01:42:53,384
It'll be 80 degrees out here.

1618
01:42:53,484 --> 01:42:55,584
I'll be sweating a little bit and pontificating.

1619
01:42:55,684 --> 01:42:56,264
It'll be fantastic.

1620
01:42:56,744 --> 01:42:57,284
Sounds good.

1621
01:42:57,564 --> 01:42:57,944
All right, Marty.

1622
01:42:58,204 --> 01:42:58,944
You have a great weekend.

1623
01:42:59,204 --> 01:43:02,264
Best of the sprog and the wife and all your children and all of that stuff.

1624
01:43:02,364 --> 01:43:03,564
And we'll talk soon.

1625
01:43:04,144 --> 01:43:04,624
You too, brother.

1626
01:43:04,964 --> 01:43:05,584
Peace and love, freaks.

1627
01:43:05,944 --> 01:43:06,144
Okay.