1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,740
Peter, welcome to the show.

2
00:00:01,820 --> 00:00:02,560
Thank you for joining me.

3
00:00:03,820 --> 00:00:06,160
Marty, I got to do this.

4
00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,380
And this is going to demonstrate just how long I've been following you guys.

5
00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:12,960
The mandibles.

6
00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:15,800
The mandibles.

7
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:26,680
I mean, I'll leave that to Matt to highlight and let him continue to beat you with a sock full of quarters every week because you haven't read it.

8
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:39,260
But no, I was I was I just started laughing because I'm like, oh, after we went back and forth last night, I thought to myself, oh, I'm going to I'm going to have to bum rush him at the beginning with the mandibles book.

9
00:00:40,980 --> 00:00:42,560
I don't have it on my bookshelf.

10
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:47,620
I don't have it on my on my Kindle either.

11
00:00:47,780 --> 00:00:48,300
It's a book.

12
00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:49,200
I'll get to it.

13
00:00:49,260 --> 00:00:51,100
I think eventually I will get to the mandibles.

14
00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:52,080
OK.

15
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:58,680
As I've said many times, a rabbit hole recap, it's essentially been read to me on air over the course of seven years from that.

16
00:00:59,940 --> 00:01:06,080
Yeah. And to answer your question. Yeah. I'm of the mind that we are in the middle of the mandibles right now.

17
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:14,900
Lovely. Yeah. Lovely. Well, let's let's set the stage for this conversation.

18
00:01:14,900 --> 00:01:17,740
I wrote a newsletter earlier this week.

19
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:22,020
We talked about a rabbit hole recap yesterday.

20
00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:29,280
There was a chart of China gold stock on warrant at the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

21
00:01:29,960 --> 00:01:33,660
And if you see the chart, it is straight up and to the right.

22
00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:39,940
Just a crazy step function growth over the course of the last year and a half, really.

23
00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,080
And that's in a signal to me, like, what's going on?

24
00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,940
Seems like China is preparing for something.

25
00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:46,040
Wrote the newsletter.

26
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:52,040
You responded on Noster saying that I need to get the full picture of China.

27
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,660
You have been living in China for 30 years, correct?

28
00:01:55,460 --> 00:01:56,080
30 years, correct.

29
00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,780
So maybe we maybe we start there.

30
00:01:59,860 --> 00:02:05,860
How did you end up in China and deciding to stay for for 30 years?

31
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,260
I'll give you the the abridged version.

32
00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,080
Number one, it's always great to be young and dumb.

33
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:17,140
And so I was working on Wall Street back in the middle, early mid 90s.

34
00:02:18,220 --> 00:02:24,500
And that was the first time China sort of landed on the sort of Wall Street radar.

35
00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:31,480
And so I was dabbling in what was going on in China, working as an analyst, so on and so forth.

36
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:41,300
And ultimately, I decided rather than to get my MBA, I was studying a little bit of Chinese in New York and thought, you know what, I'll go to China for a couple of years.

37
00:02:41,300 --> 00:02:53,080
I'll teach English, get a lay of the land, firm up my language capabilities, and then I'll just circle back and come to New York and start up the whole new career.

38
00:02:54,020 --> 00:02:55,380
And what's the old saying?

39
00:02:55,780 --> 00:02:58,280
Life is what happens when you're busy making plans.

40
00:02:59,180 --> 00:03:01,520
And so one thing after another just happened.

41
00:03:02,300 --> 00:03:08,620
I did the teaching gig, and then I got a job working as an analyst for a UK investment bank in Hong Kong.

42
00:03:08,620 --> 00:03:21,620
That lasted about four months. And then the Asian financial crisis hit, got married, had a couple of kids, became what's called the chief rep, which is a glorified sort of secretary for a handful of American companies.

43
00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:30,200
companies, you know, did all that. And then right after WTO, was working for Prudential Financial

44
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:37,620
of lovely Newark, New Jersey, and, you know, set up a joint venture for them in the finance space.

45
00:03:38,380 --> 00:03:43,560
And thought, you know, maybe there's a maybe there's an opportunity here for me to become

46
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:48,020
sort of a consultant rather than work for one company or work for a bunch. So I went out and

47
00:03:48,020 --> 00:03:54,000
set up this company called Zeben Advisors in 2004. And it's sort of 20, 21 years later,

48
00:03:54,540 --> 00:03:59,000
I've been doing that. Just basically a consultant helping predominantly European,

49
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:05,760
American financial firms navigate what the possibilities are in China. And it's not that

50
00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:11,940
easy, not simply because China is a different market, but because especially the American

51
00:04:11,940 --> 00:04:18,860
organizations, they're just so tied to how they do business globally and just an unwillingness

52
00:04:18,860 --> 00:04:23,440
to adapt to the local market. So yeah, it's, you know, 30 years just happens overnight,

53
00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:32,600
you know, and here I am. Yeah. And as I was saying before we hit record, I'm very excited

54
00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:39,620
for this conversation. I've had Balaji on the podcast. He's got a perspective that China's

55
00:04:39,620 --> 00:04:46,380
going to eat the U.S.'s lunch if we don't really light a fire under our proverbial asses to compete

56
00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:52,880
in many different aspects of the economy. I was also telling you that my interaction

57
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:58,860
with the Chinese over the last seven years has been via the Bitcoin mining industry.

58
00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:07,760
And from what I've observed, these individuals are incredibly ruthlessly capitalistic in a way

59
00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:14,740
that surprised me to the upside considering what I've been taught about the Chinese system of

60
00:05:14,740 --> 00:05:21,740
control over the course of my life. And the Chinese I've interacted with in the mining industry are

61
00:05:21,740 --> 00:05:27,980
incredibly impressive in many ways. But to your point, they do business in a different way that

62
00:05:27,980 --> 00:05:35,200
is literally foreign to the Western way of doing business. And I think to start off this

63
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:40,400
conversation, you sent an email with incredible detail about different things we could cover

64
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:45,180
today. And you started with a quote, which I think is a good setting of the stage to really

65
00:05:45,180 --> 00:05:51,620
dive into the differences between the Western Eastern way of doing business and politic,

66
00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:57,680
really. And that is a quote from Lucian Pai, China is a civilization pretending to be a nation

67
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:05,020
state. And you were explaining in the email, if you don't understand this sort of core concept,

68
00:06:05,020 --> 00:06:08,340
you're not really going to understand this whole situation.

69
00:06:09,140 --> 00:06:15,600
Yeah. I mean, if you consider the concept of a nation state itself, I mean, it's only a couple

70
00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:24,740
hundred years old. It's not really some sort of ancient governance system. And even China didn't

71
00:06:24,740 --> 00:06:33,740
have this sort of nation state governance system until 1912, when the last formal dynasty ended

72
00:06:33,740 --> 00:06:41,860
the Qing dynasty. So when you're trying to look at navigating the entirety that is China, I mean,

73
00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:47,260
I've been here 30 years, and I'll tell you this, I'll always be a foreigner. There's no way that

74
00:06:47,260 --> 00:06:53,340
you can be here for any period of time and not get to a point where you think that, okay,

75
00:06:53,700 --> 00:06:57,600
the expression is bijiungo and haijungo, like more Chinese than the Chinese.

76
00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:03,720
And there's actually an inverse relationship with regards to the time you're here, which is

77
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:08,520
the longer you're here, the less you actually figure out you know.

78
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:13,520
It just continues to expand with regard to the uncertainty and the unknowns.

79
00:07:14,420 --> 00:07:18,580
But when you take – I think it's fascinating, and we can get into the SEO

80
00:07:18,580 --> 00:07:24,360
because I think genuinely this past week has been what may be –

81
00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:29,880
I don't know if I want to say will be, but potentially could be a real turning point

82
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:36,000
because you've got really a group of nations coming together saying,

83
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:40,240
we're done with the international rules-based order and we're going to move in this direction.

84
00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:48,380
And China continues to operate as a nation state, but at its core, at its DNA.

85
00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,440
Xi Jinping is just another emperor of another dynasty.

86
00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,300
It just happens to be called the Chinese Communist Party.

87
00:07:55,300 --> 00:08:14,240
Right. So you, I think, have to, and this is, I think, something I really need to stress, which is take the 20th century Western G7 lens off and try to be more open to how it is that the Chinese are going to operate.

88
00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:22,720
And I think one of the other comments that I made to you in that lengthy email was, we're also talking about things like Judeo-Christian ethos.

89
00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:39,000
Like I'll have people say to me, well, the Chinese have no morals. And my immediate reaction to that is, OK, but by whose standards? I understand if you're coming at it and saying they have no morals based on how we do business in the West.

90
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:43,320
You know, my word is my bond, a handshake, you know, written contract.

91
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:48,060
The Chinese play that game, but ultimately it's much deeper.

92
00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:52,160
It's much more about, you know, what is in it for various parties.

93
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,900
One of the, you know, I'm going off a little bit here, but I think it's important.

94
00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:02,020
One of the key pieces of advice that I'll give the clients is if you're teamed up with

95
00:09:02,020 --> 00:09:05,820
the Chinese as a counterparty, whether it's a joint venture or you have some sort of distribution

96
00:09:05,820 --> 00:09:12,620
agreement, whatever. You need to keep in mind that the moment the Chinese think that they no

97
00:09:12,620 --> 00:09:17,580
longer need or find value in this partnership, they're going to cut you off. And it's the

98
00:09:17,580 --> 00:09:24,220
perception, not even the reality of the need for the foreign technology, the foreign expertise,

99
00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:29,300
whatever the case might be. The Chinese want to be able to endeavor, gather the information all

100
00:09:29,300 --> 00:09:35,440
they want, and then move on. So this gets into things like international or intellectual property

101
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,440
theft and the like, and we can, you know, of course, parse through that.

102
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,060
But yeah, it's just a completely different environment to be able to operate in.

103
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:53,900
Yeah, the and how do you think how maybe this is the best part, best place to start?

104
00:09:53,900 --> 00:09:57,000
Like how wide is the divergence between.

105
00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:03,180
the perceived understanding from Westerners of how China does business and the actual

106
00:10:03,180 --> 00:10:09,460
understanding of how the Chinese do business, particularly at the nation state level,

107
00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:14,760
with the Trump administration, all these tariffs and everything going on. You mentioned the SEO.

108
00:10:16,340 --> 00:10:22,360
So how even at the highest level, do you think there's still a fundamental misunderstanding

109
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,980
of the different sort of cultural way of approaching business deals?

110
00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:31,580
Oh, without question.

111
00:10:31,780 --> 00:10:33,220
And it's not even just business deals.

112
00:10:33,220 --> 00:10:39,280
I think it goes all the way up to all relationships like trade negotiations,

113
00:10:39,740 --> 00:10:43,920
geopolitical communication, whatever the case might be.

114
00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:48,360
And again, I'll reiterate a point that I made just a few minutes ago,

115
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:57,280
which is you have this hegemonic, if you will, perspective of, you know, this is how we do things.

116
00:10:58,140 --> 00:11:02,600
And this is how we've done things since 1945. Some would argue this is how we've done things since,

117
00:11:02,780 --> 00:11:10,200
you know, 1910, whatever the case might be. What is missing from that calculus is throughout that

118
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:16,160
whole period of time, China really wasn't a player on the stage. So the manners in which

119
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:26,900
their cultural approach being included into these negotiations, what have you, just doesn't enter that calculus, doesn't enter the thinking about how we're going to go about adjusting for all of this.

120
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:31,400
So, you know, I'm watching it play out on a daily basis, doubly so.

121
00:11:31,500 --> 00:11:34,720
I mean, it wasn't just current Trump administration, the Biden administration.

122
00:11:35,580 --> 00:11:41,660
You know, they thought that they were dealing with, you know, a normal counterparty as though they were talking to France or Japan or somewhere else.

123
00:11:41,660 --> 00:11:49,200
China was like, no, we're changing the tune and we're going to see how that dance is going to go.

124
00:11:49,300 --> 00:11:53,520
And the Biden administration just tripped over their feet, basically to mix all my metaphors.

125
00:11:54,280 --> 00:12:00,940
So the US right now is nowhere near having the ability to understand how to navigate it.

126
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:09,580
I think Bessit has a decent understanding of leverage and where the United States finds itself right now with regards to China.

127
00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:13,140
We saw the whole thing with rare earths for chips, you name it.

128
00:12:14,260 --> 00:12:24,320
But ultimately, there has to be a sort of a meeting of the minds, a recognition of what exactly is China?

129
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:25,240
What is their history?

130
00:12:25,420 --> 00:12:26,260
What drives them?

131
00:12:26,580 --> 00:12:28,440
And that's still missing as far as I can see.

132
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:30,760
Yeah.

133
00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:36,380
I had a conversation with Mel Madison yesterday on the show that will be posted tomorrow.

134
00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:37,780
But I actually told him.

135
00:12:37,820 --> 00:12:39,180
I've been so excited for this conversation.

136
00:12:39,180 --> 00:12:40,580
I told him I'm speaking to you.

137
00:12:41,260 --> 00:12:43,860
We covered the military parade.

138
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:49,940
And that's one point we brought up is, I think, particularly here in the United States,

139
00:12:50,300 --> 00:12:54,960
which you've sort of touched on a little bit, but I think we should really expand on,

140
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,960
is America's going to be 250 years old next year.

141
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,660
And China has been around for millennia.

142
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:04,920
And to think that...

143
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:05,520
5,000 years.

144
00:13:05,900 --> 00:13:06,660
5,000 years.

145
00:13:06,660 --> 00:13:19,620
I think that 5,000 years of history and developing and building a culture is going to be materially perturbed by 250 years of history, I think is a bit naive.

146
00:13:19,620 --> 00:13:25,440
there are definitely deeply rooted sort of cultural practices and

147
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:30,060
understandings that I think many people just just like we're fishing water.

148
00:13:30,300 --> 00:13:32,120
I'm 34 years old. I'm trying to put,

149
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:38,460
trying to put some sort of cultural DNA in a 5,000 year context.

150
00:13:38,460 --> 00:13:39,260
It's hard for people.

151
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,440
Right. Yeah, absolutely.

152
00:13:42,700 --> 00:13:45,280
No, I think, look, I'm going to, sorry.

153
00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:46,920
No, you got it.

154
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:58,100
No, what I was just going to sort of highlight is one of the bigger issues that's occurred of late is how many so-called China experts are there today?

155
00:13:58,700 --> 00:14:05,500
I mean, it's shocked me that over the last five years, everybody is weighing in on China.

156
00:14:05,580 --> 00:14:07,700
There's podcasts about China and so on and so forth.

157
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:08,720
And that's great.

158
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:10,120
The more engagement, the better.

159
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:19,680
But one of the first questions I'll talk to people and when they're coming to me, especially, is I'll ask them, well, when was the last time you were in China?

160
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,980
And, you know, they get a little bit, I think, and there's no judgment.

161
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:25,580
I'm not judging.

162
00:14:25,700 --> 00:14:26,360
I'm just curious.

163
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:32,380
And their predominant answer is always 2018, 2019, you know, pre-COVID times.

164
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:37,300
And I tell them, I'm like, look, you have to get on a plane to come out.

165
00:14:37,300 --> 00:14:42,280
I said, number one is things here have changed dramatically over a six-year period.

166
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,240
I mean, six years in China is a lifetime.

167
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:55,900
But number two is over that six-year period, there has been an absolute cacophony of headlines and framing and conversations.

168
00:14:56,420 --> 00:14:57,740
I mean, you remember the spy balloon.

169
00:14:57,980 --> 00:15:00,060
I mean, it goes on and on and on.

170
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:06,080
And it has been a just onslaught of negative headlines.

171
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:10,480
So I will talk to people and that's their entire framing.

172
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:25,595
And yet they listening to people who never been to China or haven been to China in five six seven years So I really trying to press people to say look it fine if you out there looking for insights

173
00:15:25,935 --> 00:15:27,235
And I think everybody should be questioning.

174
00:15:27,235 --> 00:15:32,235
I think Matt today, when you guys or yesterday, I guess, did your weekly recap.

175
00:15:32,675 --> 00:15:37,955
I busted out laughing because he was like, oh, he's got a pretty positive outlook on things.

176
00:15:37,955 --> 00:15:51,915
Yes, you could frame it that way, but there's enough negativity being discussed on China that the way that I phrased it, and I think I phrased it to you, is it's not that China shouldn't be critiqued.

177
00:15:51,975 --> 00:16:05,415
There's a ton of areas that you can critique China, but the critiques are very narrowly defined and I think miss an enormity of what else is going on and the fuller picture.

178
00:16:06,175 --> 00:16:12,515
So I think that's kind of emblematic of what I've been witnessing, especially coming out of the U.S. over the course of the last several years.

179
00:16:12,515 --> 00:16:21,555
yeah as an american looking out at the world right now as it seems to be going in this more

180
00:16:21,555 --> 00:16:29,155
multi-polar direction geopolitical tensions rising high war breaking out different parts of the world

181
00:16:29,155 --> 00:16:37,375
economic stress on top of everybody's mind i think it's important to try to make sure that

182
00:16:37,375 --> 00:16:43,095
we're making the right critiques and understand the full breadth of the

183
00:16:43,095 --> 00:16:46,055
situation so that we can make the best decisions.

184
00:16:46,055 --> 00:16:48,355
And especially after reading your email,

185
00:16:48,455 --> 00:16:52,435
I mean the first bullet point you have is America versus China saying it's

186
00:16:52,435 --> 00:16:54,295
not a new cold war for you.

187
00:16:54,395 --> 00:16:55,455
It's far more concerning,

188
00:16:55,855 --> 00:17:00,415
which I imagine is driven by the fact that there's a fundamental

189
00:17:00,415 --> 00:17:04,775
misunderstanding and people in the West don't even know how to properly

190
00:17:04,775 --> 00:17:06,755
critique what's happening.

191
00:17:07,375 --> 00:17:18,095
Well, I think on that point, so you would have seen over the course of the last, I don't know, year that there's been this like, oh, this is Cold War 2.0.

192
00:17:18,395 --> 00:17:20,295
Niall Ferguson, Sir Niall, right?

193
00:17:20,355 --> 00:17:24,715
He's come up with this and he's been making the rounds and talking about it.

194
00:17:25,315 --> 00:17:28,055
And look, it's easy to package.

195
00:17:28,355 --> 00:17:29,495
We have recency bias.

196
00:17:29,635 --> 00:17:31,255
We want to look back to the Soviet Union.

197
00:17:31,255 --> 00:17:47,355
For me, it's been really about the UK and Germany back in around 1905 when you had the UK, which was at that point even a power that was maybe in the early stages of decline.

198
00:17:47,355 --> 00:17:53,295
The colonies and the empire had sprawled so far that it was difficult to maintain.

199
00:17:54,035 --> 00:18:02,335
And critical, I think, is this was around the time that you really had petroleum becoming an essential component for things like ships.

200
00:18:03,355 --> 00:18:11,275
And the UK Navy was all coal-driven or steam-driven, and it was moving over to oil.

201
00:18:12,055 --> 00:18:13,095
And the Germans were rising.

202
00:18:13,095 --> 00:18:26,715
And the Germans, if you look at a lot of the history and a lot of the research, the Germans recognized, and here's what's critical, by the way, the UK, Germany, and Russia at this time were basically run by cousins, you know, grandkids of Queen Victoria.

203
00:18:26,855 --> 00:18:29,995
And these were all relations, and they still couldn't get along.

204
00:18:30,895 --> 00:18:39,055
And, you know, Germany, I think, recognized, if you look at a lot of the research, that, okay, we can't go head to head with, you know, the UK.

205
00:18:39,175 --> 00:18:40,715
We have to try to play nice with them.

206
00:18:40,715 --> 00:18:52,815
And the Brits, in their own typical British fashion, they would placate the Germans. Yes, yes, let's talk about this. Let's get a memo, sit down for a meeting. And they just kind of slow rolled the Germans.

207
00:19:10,715 --> 00:19:15,055
to the British and said, look, let's do this as a joint venture. The British said, sure,

208
00:19:15,195 --> 00:19:19,875
but then they dragged their feet. And then Germany finally was like, look, we're just going to go do

209
00:19:19,875 --> 00:19:28,355
this. And there were a host of these issues that you had this power at the time that rather than

210
00:19:28,355 --> 00:19:34,215
address the issues that they had at home, they were more inclined to look at things like tariffs.

211
00:19:34,855 --> 00:19:39,875
They tried to create this tariff regime where if you were part of the colonial empire,

212
00:19:39,875 --> 00:19:45,475
the Commonwealth, you'd get a better deal. They tried to contain Germany with regard to economic

213
00:19:45,475 --> 00:19:54,355
sanctions. And for me, ultimately, you can draw a line between that action of the UK to the start

214
00:19:54,355 --> 00:19:59,635
of World War I. You could talk about Ferdinand down in the Balkans and what have you. But

215
00:20:00,995 --> 00:20:06,115
I'm seeing so many similarities between how the United States is operating with regard to China

216
00:20:06,115 --> 00:20:11,275
right now that it is concerning, more concerning than is this a capitalist versus a communist

217
00:20:11,275 --> 00:20:13,755
Cold War comparison with the Soviet Union.

218
00:20:16,275 --> 00:20:23,415
I think the latter can certainly be thrown out in the window.

219
00:20:23,415 --> 00:20:28,375
If you're trying to say that the Chinese Communist Party, I think you put it correctly, like

220
00:20:28,375 --> 00:20:34,395
Xi is just a dynastic ruler and his dynasty is just called the CCP if you compare it to

221
00:20:34,395 --> 00:20:41,155
Soviet Russia, like it's completely different. I've been listening to a lot of Bill Gurley's

222
00:20:41,155 --> 00:20:45,715
comments on China. He's one of the few Americans that seems to get over to China a lot and really

223
00:20:45,715 --> 00:20:51,995
understand what's happening. And the way he describes how they invest in companies and

224
00:20:51,995 --> 00:20:59,975
try to ensure that there is there is sort of a free market for ideas to be built and companies

225
00:20:59,975 --> 00:21:05,675
to be built and they steward it with capital and then have a filtering system that lets the cream

226
00:21:05,675 --> 00:21:13,095
rise to the top it's very clear that they're not the soviet russia form of communism um

227
00:21:13,095 --> 00:21:21,195
and so i think a lot of the saber rattling and positioning particularly from the united states

228
00:21:21,195 --> 00:21:32,155
is just using your UK Germany analogy is like the US sort of on the brink of do we go down the road

229
00:21:32,155 --> 00:21:41,515
of empire or try to revert to our our sort of democratic republic and get back to the roots of

230
00:21:41,515 --> 00:21:48,415
being non-interventionist is is where we stand if we go down the route of empire if we want to go

231
00:21:48,415 --> 00:21:52,555
down the route of empire, a lot of the positioning towards China makes sense to me.

232
00:21:54,155 --> 00:21:59,395
Because it just seems like, hey, we want to keep control of this sort of massive footprint

233
00:21:59,395 --> 00:22:00,375
we have over the world.

234
00:22:01,175 --> 00:22:03,615
To do that, we need to play hardball with China.

235
00:22:05,255 --> 00:22:10,415
Well, and you can also, I've made the argument that while the British back in previous empire

236
00:22:10,415 --> 00:22:13,475
days had their colonies, the United States has their own colonies.

237
00:22:13,615 --> 00:22:14,875
They're just called military bases.

238
00:22:14,875 --> 00:22:40,055
You know, I think and again, I haven't said this yet. So let me I mentioned this in a note earlier today on Noster. I'm a red blooded fucking American. Right. I need to stress that. And the commentary that I make about China is with regard to trying to get this ridiculous beltway consensus, as I call it, to understand what the issues are.

239
00:22:40,055 --> 00:22:55,275
And it's frustrating as all hell, because most will look at it and say, oh, we don't need to worry, because the coping mechanism for almost everybody is, don't worry about it, the Chinese economy is going to collapse.

240
00:22:56,555 --> 00:23:00,415
Marty, I've been hearing China's economy is going to collapse for the last 25 years.

241
00:23:01,035 --> 00:23:02,075
Like, what's the joke?

242
00:23:02,335 --> 00:23:03,455
Hope is not a strategy.

243
00:23:03,455 --> 00:23:13,215
If you're waiting on you don't need to change because your mortal enemy is going to collapse, yeah, that's a recipe for disaster.

244
00:23:13,615 --> 00:23:29,455
So, you know, when I look around the region and I see things like 50,000 troops in Korea or 20 odd thousand troops in Japan, the United States last year put a high end typhoon missile system on the northern end of the Philippines.

245
00:23:29,455 --> 00:23:35,095
They just announced two days ago that they're putting another one down in the Okinawa region.

246
00:23:35,875 --> 00:23:41,155
I mean, if I'm sitting back as China, and again, being a realist, you've got to say,

247
00:23:41,375 --> 00:23:48,035
look, we're going to have to at least start trying to project some degree of power as a defensive

248
00:23:48,035 --> 00:23:54,395
mode. And that's not me saying I'm supporting the CCP and I think everything's China is great.

249
00:23:54,535 --> 00:23:57,075
It's more about just looking at it from a realistic standpoint.

250
00:23:57,075 --> 00:24:12,695
I had been, to be quite frank, shocked at the level of restraint that the Chinese have demonstrated over the last several years with the various military exercises the US has taken right outside their doorstep.

251
00:24:12,695 --> 00:24:24,315
yeah i mean we do have uh and this is a very controversial um take for many people many of

252
00:24:24,315 --> 00:24:31,615
my listeners but i think we do have recent evidence that um when the u.s meddles in foreign affairs

253
00:24:31,615 --> 00:24:37,375
particularly of countries that there are other superpowers in the case of russia and ukraine with

254
00:24:37,375 --> 00:24:47,455
the encroachment of NATO around their borders and the conversation of letting Ukraine into NATO

255
00:24:47,455 --> 00:24:55,555
and putting military bases and everything around Russia. I'm a strong believer in that is one of the

256
00:24:56,155 --> 00:25:02,455
driving catalysts of the war between Russia and Ukraine right now. And to think that

257
00:25:02,455 --> 00:25:06,855
we're not going to learn the lessons of that, which has turned into an absolute catastrophe.

258
00:25:07,375 --> 00:25:14,675
And turn it up to another level with arguably a stronger superpower in China just seems suicidal to me.

259
00:25:15,735 --> 00:25:17,035
It's not – and it's funny.

260
00:25:17,115 --> 00:25:18,555
It's not just a stronger superpower.

261
00:25:18,755 --> 00:25:25,215
I think one of the most fascinating developments over the course of the last six months has been, oh, wait.

262
00:25:25,215 --> 00:25:36,415
We, corporate America, entered a Faustian bargain over the last 30 years to produce everything that we potentially need in the mainland.

263
00:25:36,415 --> 00:25:49,635
And then we wake up one day and Walmart is going in with Costco into the Oval Office saying, hey, look, man, our shelves are going to be bare in two weeks because of these 145 percent tariffs.

264
00:25:50,215 --> 00:25:55,215
And Trump folded like a lawn chair. And I don't think he wanted to. He just simply had no choice.

265
00:25:55,755 --> 00:26:02,615
So, you know, what I have found is very endemic by American policymakers has been this.

266
00:26:03,415 --> 00:26:05,855
Look, this is what we think is right. And we're going to go in this direction.

267
00:26:06,415 --> 00:26:11,215
And then second order effects come back and beat you over the head.

268
00:26:11,435 --> 00:26:14,355
And I'll give you a fantastic anecdote.

269
00:26:15,935 --> 00:26:21,795
Back in October of last year, there was this literally week in Congress that was called the China Week.

270
00:26:21,875 --> 00:26:25,715
And it was all of these bills that were being passed about targeting China.

271
00:26:25,995 --> 00:26:27,575
And they were going to stop them doing this and that.

272
00:26:27,695 --> 00:26:32,535
And one of the bills basically was called the Anti-China Drone Act.

273
00:26:32,535 --> 00:26:45,995
And essentially what it was, was a law that has been passed or a bill that's been passed into law that made it illegal for a company called DJI to sell their drones into the US.

274
00:26:46,155 --> 00:26:48,575
DJI is not just the largest.

275
00:26:50,235 --> 00:26:55,175
And it's I'm telling you, it is an amazing company, an absolutely amazing company.

276
00:26:55,175 --> 00:26:56,755
But here's the funny part.

277
00:26:56,755 --> 00:27:06,335
The bill was jokingly referred to as the Skydio bill, because Skydio is a California company that makes drones and was getting its ass kicked.

278
00:27:06,995 --> 00:27:11,795
So, you know, let's go with a little regulatory capture, which is the flavor of the day in the United States, right?

279
00:27:12,755 --> 00:27:14,395
And they were like, this is great.

280
00:27:15,095 --> 00:27:21,175
Two weeks later, Skydio was still sourcing all of the batteries for their drones from China.

281
00:27:21,575 --> 00:27:22,555
And guess what happened?

282
00:27:23,235 --> 00:27:24,975
The battery supply got cut off.

283
00:27:24,975 --> 00:27:33,495
so skydio literally had to go with their point of sale documents to their buyers and say look

284
00:27:33,495 --> 00:27:37,495
we're going to sell you the drone but you need to go on amazon to buy the battery

285
00:27:37,495 --> 00:27:48,175
like okay that is a microcosm of the cancer quite frankly that is you know just

286
00:27:48,175 --> 00:27:52,455
all through the United States when it comes to sourcing.

287
00:27:52,675 --> 00:27:55,175
It's not sourcing just of end goods.

288
00:27:55,375 --> 00:27:59,335
You've got inputs that need to go into manufacturing in the United States.

289
00:27:59,935 --> 00:28:04,415
It's, again, like I said, it was the Faustian bargain that to this day,

290
00:28:04,595 --> 00:28:08,755
Tim Cook as another example, I'm sure he lays awake at night going,

291
00:28:08,755 --> 00:28:12,015
why did I make this deal 15 years ago?

292
00:28:12,015 --> 00:28:19,615
well i think that's the big question on many americans minds is how

293
00:28:19,615 --> 00:28:25,815
i think it's become very clear um to many americans that we have made this

294
00:28:25,815 --> 00:28:34,755
and bargain and we have become wholly beholden to the chinese supply chain just due to the way

295
00:28:34,755 --> 00:28:41,175
we've built our economy over the last five decades more acutely the last three decades

296
00:28:41,175 --> 00:28:47,815
specifically. And how do we fix that problem? And how not only how do we fix that problem?

297
00:28:47,815 --> 00:28:53,375
And obviously the the answer from the Trump administration is let's reassure as much as

298
00:28:53,375 --> 00:29:00,555
possible. But how do you do that in the least disruptive way while maintaining or good

299
00:29:00,555 --> 00:29:05,955
relationships with China and maybe not even maintaining building back good relationships

300
00:29:05,955 --> 00:29:09,035
with China? Because at the end of the day, as American, I was talking about this with Mel

301
00:29:09,035 --> 00:29:14,315
yesterday too like i don't want to be an empire i don't want to be in all these parts of the world

302
00:29:14,315 --> 00:29:20,675
i think i'm mega in the sense of like i think we have a lot of problems here at home we should

303
00:29:20,675 --> 00:29:27,855
fix our problems here uh i am very aligned with george washington and the founding fathers and

304
00:29:27,855 --> 00:29:32,975
let's not be interventionists let's just build a strong country a strong economy and engage in free

305
00:29:32,975 --> 00:29:39,155
trade. And I am a true believer in the Austrian view of free market economics. If you have free

306
00:29:39,155 --> 00:29:45,615
trade and peace and you sort of leave everybody to do their own thing and then engage in trade,

307
00:29:45,675 --> 00:29:50,795
but it makes sense. That's the optimal outcome. I don't think we need to be the world police or

308
00:29:50,795 --> 00:29:57,475
have this hegemonic control over the world, which is massive and filled with cultures that are

309
00:29:57,475 --> 00:30:03,315
truly different and as we're really digging into are completely misunderstood and it just seems

310
00:30:03,315 --> 00:30:10,315
impractical and um from a systems perspective it we've learned time and time again throughout

311
00:30:10,315 --> 00:30:15,055
history just doesn't scale um it can't scale you can't coordinate at that scale

312
00:30:15,055 --> 00:30:24,215
no no and again here's the kicker china actually gets that and people will always ask me because

313
00:30:24,215 --> 00:30:38,110
There this projection by the power base in Washington that because we are a hegemonic power China wants to replace us

314
00:30:38,250 --> 00:30:43,970
Ergo, China wants to be a hegemonic power. In my humble opinion, I don't see that.

315
00:30:45,470 --> 00:30:50,610
Look at all the hegemons over the last, I don't know, 200 years, right? Hasn't really turned down

316
00:30:50,610 --> 00:30:56,330
well for any of them in the end. There's been a period of like, okay, this was great. China wants

317
00:30:56,330 --> 00:31:02,610
regional hegemony in Asia. They want to be able to say, this is our sphere of influence. Look,

318
00:31:02,650 --> 00:31:07,750
the United States, you want to go with your Monroe Doctrine. You want North and South America. We

319
00:31:07,750 --> 00:31:13,770
get it. Let's let Europe do what Europe's going to do. But ultimately, their attitude is just

320
00:31:13,770 --> 00:31:21,430
let us have Asia. And even for the United States, I think that that's non-negotiable.

321
00:31:21,430 --> 00:31:41,490
And for whatever reason, I can understand it. They want to maintain the power projection that they have as the United States hegemon. But that's kind of where I think things are heading at this point in time. But China has, again, my opinion, has no desire to be a hegemon. They don't want allies. Think of it this way. They don't want allies. They want counterparties.

322
00:31:41,490 --> 00:31:47,550
They want to be able to just build and sell and make money and prosper economically.

323
00:31:48,170 --> 00:31:55,630
And that is a very both unpopular and very minority held opinion.

324
00:31:57,470 --> 00:32:05,190
Yeah. Well, let's get into this, like diving into what China actually wants and how our policy is being enacted, because.

325
00:32:06,190 --> 00:32:11,190
You're saying China wants this regional hegemony, but then we have like the Belt and Road.

326
00:32:11,490 --> 00:32:19,370
initiative where they're they have inroads in to africa in latin america um i think a big topic

327
00:32:19,370 --> 00:32:26,130
in pretty niche circles in the u.s right now is the chinese shipping boats going around the world and

328
00:32:26,130 --> 00:32:31,550
really cleaning up the oceans of all the fish and i believe right now they're off the coast of ecuador

329
00:32:31,550 --> 00:32:38,850
so how does the belt and road compute with that idea that asia or excuse me china just wants asian

330
00:32:38,850 --> 00:32:39,590
hegemony?

331
00:32:43,050 --> 00:32:44,970
There's a couple of answers to it.

332
00:32:45,030 --> 00:32:46,750
Number one is

333
00:32:46,750 --> 00:32:50,170
dollar diversification.

334
00:32:50,590 --> 00:32:52,810
Let's call it that. If you look at

335
00:32:52,810 --> 00:32:54,890
what was originally called the

336
00:32:54,890 --> 00:32:56,690
One Belt, One Road program, now

337
00:32:56,690 --> 00:32:58,770
BRI, this was really

338
00:32:58,770 --> 00:33:00,490
launched in

339
00:33:00,490 --> 00:33:02,690
earnest around 2012.

340
00:33:03,830 --> 00:33:04,790
If you look

341
00:33:04,790 --> 00:33:05,550
at a lot of

342
00:33:05,550 --> 00:33:08,590
the events that transpired

343
00:33:08,590 --> 00:33:18,750
in the 2012-2014 period, you started to see China begin to limit the amount of US treasuries

344
00:33:18,750 --> 00:33:23,970
it was going to take on to its foreign currency reserves. You started to have a little bit of

345
00:33:23,970 --> 00:33:28,910
dabbling in other areas as well with regard to foreign currency. But One Belt, One Road, or BRI,

346
00:33:29,730 --> 00:33:35,690
this was the perfect way to deploy foreign capital dollars in a way that was going to be able to

347
00:33:35,690 --> 00:33:44,230
secure hard resources, be able to provide, you know, there's a joke, you know, when the Americans

348
00:33:44,230 --> 00:33:50,490
were before them, the British would go to some developing nation, they would always come with a

349
00:33:50,490 --> 00:33:56,350
lecture, right? And the Chinese come with a hospital or a road. Now, don't get me wrong,

350
00:33:56,510 --> 00:34:00,670
they're not doing this out of the goodness of their heart. They're doing it for two reasons.

351
00:34:01,190 --> 00:34:03,690
One, there's typically loans involved.

352
00:34:03,770 --> 00:34:11,210
So there is this issue of how much is China sort of creating this indentured servitude situation by other nations.

353
00:34:11,810 --> 00:34:14,590
But above all else, it's about the resources.

354
00:34:15,250 --> 00:34:17,110
They want to be able to build the roads.

355
00:34:17,110 --> 00:34:27,250
They want to have the energy that's necessary, all of that to extract minerals, gold, oil, energy, whatever the case might be.

356
00:34:27,250 --> 00:34:39,350
So it has clearly been positioned in a way that it is China's attempt to try to strong arm other nations into its orbit.

357
00:34:39,350 --> 00:34:48,910
But I think, as I mentioned to you in the email I sent to you, for me, this is the Marshall Plan in a different guise.

358
00:34:49,430 --> 00:35:07,290
When the United States, in their benevolent wisdom, came in to help save the world, both the Marshall and the Dodge Plan, in fact, two things people tend to leave out of that, again, benevolent strategy, which was the United States gave loans in U.S. dollars,

359
00:35:07,290 --> 00:35:12,770
which helped to push the U.S. dollars into the global system. And at the same time,

360
00:35:13,110 --> 00:35:19,430
they were loans, and those loans had to be used to hire Caterpillar and all of these American

361
00:35:19,430 --> 00:35:24,510
companies to come in. And that's where the first expats post-World War II sort of went around the

362
00:35:24,510 --> 00:35:31,890
world all through Asia. So it was also in the United States' interest to be able to push forward

363
00:35:31,890 --> 00:35:34,810
with the Marshall and the Dodge plan.

364
00:35:35,430 --> 00:35:39,310
China basically saw this as being something similar and said, this is a great way for

365
00:35:39,310 --> 00:35:41,150
us to diversify and move out.

366
00:35:41,310 --> 00:35:46,290
Plus, we're going to be able to extract a ton of different resources to help us back

367
00:35:46,290 --> 00:35:46,650
at home.

368
00:35:47,230 --> 00:35:50,950
So I don't think really this has much at all to do with hegemony.

369
00:35:51,950 --> 00:36:00,570
And I would say the interesting footnote to this whole point is how many bases, military

370
00:36:00,570 --> 00:36:08,190
bases does the Chinese have? They have one. And it's in Djibouti in Africa. Now, granted,

371
00:36:08,290 --> 00:36:12,570
it's near the Red Sea, I believe, or not the Red Sea. I can't remember. Maybe the Red Sea.

372
00:36:12,990 --> 00:36:19,270
But that's it. So they're not looking in any way to try to project their military power in this

373
00:36:19,270 --> 00:36:27,330
regard. That makes sense. Well, let's pull it forward to recent events and really dive into

374
00:36:27,330 --> 00:36:31,770
what people are probably most interested in, which is the military parade that happened.

375
00:36:33,050 --> 00:36:36,070
Bricks, SEO and the Global South getting together.

376
00:36:36,510 --> 00:36:40,690
Donald Trump tweeting, recruiting, sending a truth out.

377
00:36:41,510 --> 00:36:43,710
I hate saying that, but it is what it is.

378
00:36:44,210 --> 00:36:48,350
It's obviously seeming like he's missing out on the party.

379
00:36:48,490 --> 00:36:53,730
It was very obvious to me, at least a sort of geopolitical flexing.

380
00:36:53,870 --> 00:36:56,570
We're going to have this massive military parade and we're going to bite.

381
00:36:56,570 --> 00:37:02,490
all these world leaders and we're going to keep out the g7 and the u.s and um

382
00:37:02,490 --> 00:37:09,270
how would you describe the land like going back to the newsletter and comments on rabbit hole

383
00:37:09,270 --> 00:37:15,770
recap yesterday both the the gold that is on warrant it seems like they've been building up

384
00:37:15,770 --> 00:37:21,750
this gold inventory for the better part of two decades now um by putting in on warrant registering

385
00:37:21,750 --> 00:37:26,210
it with the shanghai gold exchange that's a signal to me like hey we do have this gold and

386
00:37:26,210 --> 00:37:31,570
we're putting it on where we're willing to use it um in international trade or whenever we want to

387
00:37:31,570 --> 00:37:38,070
they have optionality by doing that and then you have yes this military parade and this sort of

388
00:37:38,070 --> 00:37:44,230
fading of the western hegemon hegemony um by keeping them out of of the guest list keeping

389
00:37:44,230 --> 00:37:51,570
them off the guest list and it just seems like very overt explicit geopolitical posturing

390
00:37:51,570 --> 00:37:57,450
on the stage, sort of a chess move, two chess moves there with the gold and this military parade.

391
00:37:58,590 --> 00:38:02,070
What is this? What are these moves in your mind?

392
00:38:03,590 --> 00:38:07,330
Well, first of all, and I think you guys talked about it on Rabinol Recap. Look,

393
00:38:07,710 --> 00:38:14,290
I'm never a believer in coincidences. Like the Chinese have a tendency of,

394
00:38:15,030 --> 00:38:18,370
I find them, and it's funny because I've seen a lot more people talking about this.

395
00:38:18,370 --> 00:38:30,750
They are the consummate trolls. They know how to use what they have and be able to sort of just, hey, whoa, what are you talking about? They're just brilliant at playing this game.

396
00:38:31,830 --> 00:38:39,690
So a couple of things. I'll start with the SEO meeting at the beginning of the week and then the military parade, and then I'll jump into the gold issue.

397
00:38:39,690 --> 00:38:49,970
First and foremost, I mean, we do have to be mindful that this parade was planned months in advance and the guest list was planned months in advance.

398
00:38:50,810 --> 00:38:54,290
So it really wasn't in terms of the parade and the attendees.

399
00:38:54,770 --> 00:38:57,070
It wasn't all that much of a surprise.

400
00:38:57,070 --> 00:39:10,030
Now, that's not to say that there was coordination that was going on behind the scenes and there were separate meetings that were taking place with regard to call it the broader global financial system.

401
00:39:10,830 --> 00:39:21,370
But the only, I think, real fly in the ointment was the Moody participation in the SEO on the weekend.

402
00:39:21,370 --> 00:39:25,430
And you would have seen all the pictures holding hands with Putin, the whole lot.

403
00:39:25,430 --> 00:39:36,570
You know, look, I've been watching, you know, Donald Trump, the man and his sort of approach to if you want to call it an approach to sort of geopolitics.

404
00:39:36,570 --> 00:39:41,910
And it's a degree of buffoonery that is even surprising to me.

405
00:39:43,290 --> 00:39:45,650
This is on a whole different level.

406
00:39:46,030 --> 00:39:48,670
The antagonizing of India.

407
00:39:50,110 --> 00:39:51,550
I just don't get it.

408
00:39:51,630 --> 00:39:54,330
There's no there's no material upside to it.

409
00:39:54,330 --> 00:40:04,130
And then he doubles down on it, not but a day after the SEO meeting saying, oh, it's a one-sided relationship, what have you.

410
00:40:05,030 --> 00:40:09,550
And look, China and India, they're no close bedfellows.

411
00:40:09,650 --> 00:40:11,190
They've had issues for years.

412
00:40:11,710 --> 00:40:14,090
In fact, Russia and China have had issues for years.

413
00:40:14,090 --> 00:40:21,730
The way that I've sort of tried to describe this to various groups that I've spoken to is, and I wrote this to you as well,

414
00:40:21,730 --> 00:40:30,050
the enemy of my enemy theory. How long can that center hold? Well, it's going to hold as long as

415
00:40:30,050 --> 00:40:38,410
the United States continues to be belligerent on the global stage. But I'll just quickly say with

416
00:40:38,410 --> 00:40:43,410
regard to the military parade, I've been there, done that. I think that was my, I don't know.

417
00:40:43,810 --> 00:40:49,630
They do one every 10 years for this anniversary, but then they also do one every 10 years for the

418
00:40:49,630 --> 00:40:57,070
anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. So I've seen more than my fair share. It's

419
00:40:57,070 --> 00:41:01,450
very staged. And it's interesting to see what kind of toys they put out.

420
00:41:02,270 --> 00:41:06,930
But on the gold issue, this has been something that I've been focused on for years.

421
00:41:07,850 --> 00:41:14,230
And the most interesting element is the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which I think you highlighted.

422
00:41:14,230 --> 00:41:21,950
They have sort of a subsidiary called the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, which was created in 2014.

423
00:41:23,410 --> 00:41:33,490
And that was the first time they opened up the local market to offshore participation, to be able to trade and to be able to settle.

424
00:41:34,210 --> 00:41:39,750
Going all the way back to 2014, you did have physical settlement if needed with different counterparties.

425
00:41:39,750 --> 00:41:45,650
Now, for the first number of years, there wasn't a lot of volume or activity at that point.

426
00:41:46,310 --> 00:41:54,390
But I found it fascinating because 2014, you're talking about, was like a year or so after Iran got sanctioned and kicked off the SWIFT system.

427
00:41:54,950 --> 00:41:59,030
It was the year in which Russia essentially went in and annexed Crimea.

428
00:42:00,310 --> 00:42:05,090
It was also just so happened the year that I think Chinese treasury holdings peaked.

429
00:42:05,090 --> 00:42:21,450
So you look at sort of the trend over the last decade, and it's very clear that there has been a progression, very slow, no pun intended, but a little bit, Chinese water torture, to be able to move this forward.

430
00:42:21,450 --> 00:42:44,650
And I think this is the important part, and this is perhaps where I'll have a disagreement with you on some sort of impending development, is kind of trying to work at the margins to sort of undermine the American geopolitical position, but not in such a blatant way that it causes an overreaction.

431
00:42:44,650 --> 00:42:50,870
And I think we can both agree that American foreign policy has a tendency to overreact.

432
00:42:51,610 --> 00:42:58,430
I mean, there were a lot of rumors that Gaddafi got taken out because he wanted to start pricing oil in euros.

433
00:43:00,070 --> 00:43:08,590
So China has been at the margins selling a or I should say buying a truck ton of energy using renminbi.

434
00:43:10,230 --> 00:43:13,010
So you've had an increase in volume.

435
00:43:13,010 --> 00:43:25,430
And I think more importantly, just I want to say last month, the Chinese went and opened up a new gold vault in Hong Kong because I think that there is increasing demand.

436
00:43:25,430 --> 00:43:44,050
And I think this is where your issue that you raise with regard to the warrants is there's probably more demand coming in that you had all of this gold that was probably sitting privately in Bank of China, most likely, that was then moved to the gold exchange with the warrants being issued.

437
00:43:44,050 --> 00:43:58,550
What, in my opinion, China has been doing and will continue to do is demarcate between a foreign currency asset and a foreign currency.

438
00:43:59,170 --> 00:44:00,770
Meaning they don't want to replace the dollar.

439
00:44:00,850 --> 00:44:02,310
You want to use the dollar and knock yourself out.

440
00:44:03,010 --> 00:44:08,450
But they want the optionality to be able to say, we're going to go to different counterparties and they're going to use the renminbi.

441
00:44:08,450 --> 00:44:15,510
But again, as you both rightly pointed out on your weekly show, nobody wants to hold the renminbi.

442
00:44:15,730 --> 00:44:19,610
And the Chinese don't want people holding renminbi in their bond market either.

443
00:44:19,770 --> 00:44:21,190
They like their closed capital account.

444
00:44:22,070 --> 00:44:26,930
So what you do is you create the ability over a period of time that if you want, you can settle in gold.

445
00:44:27,510 --> 00:44:37,590
And I'm aware of numerous events where settlement has taken place and some of it stays here, as you guys pointed out, but some of it does get transported elsewhere.

446
00:44:38,450 --> 00:44:56,730
And that is undermining the pure bedrock of the reserve asset, the U.S. Treasury, because the U.S. Treasury has only been really a requirement, if you will, if you have excess savings, if you will, from your trade surplus.

447
00:44:57,430 --> 00:45:00,850
The Chinese, where do the Chinese have a trade surplus?

448
00:45:01,390 --> 00:45:11,850
Predominantly from those exporters of energy and minerals and other inputs, if you will, food, potash, you name it.

449
00:45:12,510 --> 00:45:17,190
And those countries are like, look, we'll take your renminbi and we know that we can come in and we can just settle in gold.

450
00:45:17,310 --> 00:45:18,170
We're fine with that.

451
00:45:18,690 --> 00:45:20,090
And that's going to continue to move on.

452
00:45:20,090 --> 00:45:31,190
Now, taking that next step to create a gold-backed BRICS or a gold-backed Yuan, I personally think that would be viewed as an act of war by the US government, honestly.

453
00:45:31,410 --> 00:45:32,350
And the Chinese know that.

454
00:45:33,010 --> 00:45:42,470
There's no reason for them to take that what would be viewed as a natural step forward if they already get 90% of the benefits of just allowing for settlement in gold.

455
00:45:44,910 --> 00:46:00,765
That makes a lot of sense And again going back to not only misunderstanding uh a culture that is five millennia old but it like the it just reverting to how they probably settle trade

456
00:46:00,765 --> 00:46:07,885
for millennia with gold and that's the other thing is fish and water not understanding we

457
00:46:07,885 --> 00:46:14,885
live in an anomalous time, whether it be the use of our nation in the nation state model

458
00:46:14,885 --> 00:46:17,685
or the fact that we're using this fiat currency.

459
00:46:18,345 --> 00:46:24,245
It's a clear point, like why even do a gold back yuan?

460
00:46:24,385 --> 00:46:26,245
We could just settle on gold itself.

461
00:46:26,925 --> 00:46:27,045
Right.

462
00:46:28,805 --> 00:46:31,245
And China has all the gold right now.

463
00:46:31,765 --> 00:46:37,785
I mean, this is the reason of my opinion why they have been so aggressive in buying as

464
00:46:37,785 --> 00:46:41,925
much gold as they've had is because they want to be able to demonstrate that they're able to settle

465
00:46:41,925 --> 00:46:50,025
for anybody on any trade surplus that might exist and just quickly can we touch on this because i

466
00:46:50,025 --> 00:46:57,925
i'm sure there's a number of listeners uh who were sort of using yuan and renminbi

467
00:46:57,925 --> 00:47:02,205
interchangeably can you describe the dynamics of like the onshore offshore and

468
00:47:02,205 --> 00:47:05,205
how these two currencies actually work?

469
00:47:07,005 --> 00:47:13,625
Well, so there's, first of all, the yuan is sort of like saying the buck, right?

470
00:47:14,145 --> 00:47:19,005
The US dollar, the equivalent in China is the renminbi, the people's currency.

471
00:47:20,205 --> 00:47:27,265
So they're interchangeable, but there is an offshore renminbi or yuan that's traded in Hong Kong.

472
00:47:27,265 --> 00:47:35,345
So it's, to be honest with you, it's more about the Chinese sort of trying to create

473
00:47:35,345 --> 00:47:39,905
this dual system of we have both our onshore market and our offshore market.

474
00:47:40,125 --> 00:47:44,905
And what I've always found fascinating, and I'll ask you this question because I think

475
00:47:44,905 --> 00:47:47,245
it can be quite enlightening.

476
00:47:47,545 --> 00:47:53,465
If I were to ask you from the Chinese perspective, from Beijing's perspective, is Hong Kong foreign

477
00:47:53,465 --> 00:47:54,385
or domestic?

478
00:47:56,385 --> 00:47:56,785
Yeah.

479
00:47:57,265 --> 00:48:00,845
I would say they think it's domestic.

480
00:48:02,605 --> 00:48:04,305
And the right answer is both.

481
00:48:05,845 --> 00:48:13,065
When I go to the airport in Shanghai and I'm traveling anywhere and I go, I have to fly through the international terminal to get to Hong Kong.

482
00:48:13,285 --> 00:48:17,665
And it says in Chinese, international, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau.

483
00:48:19,265 --> 00:48:26,585
So what China's been able to brilliantly do is they've had their cake and eat it too with regard to Hong Kong.

484
00:48:27,265 --> 00:48:31,325
they're able to say, oh, this is an international city, so we can do things differently down there.

485
00:48:32,945 --> 00:48:38,365
But if we want to, we can come down and we can bring the hammer of Thor on to Hong Kong as well

486
00:48:38,365 --> 00:48:44,185
and say, no, you're actually ours as well. So whatever the sort of flavor of the day might be

487
00:48:44,185 --> 00:48:48,445
in terms of what's going on in Beijing, they can basically just go and say it's one or the other.

488
00:48:48,445 --> 00:48:52,385
But in terms of the financial service industry, I mean, look at the crypto space, right?

489
00:48:52,385 --> 00:49:00,265
I mean, if it was domestic, they wouldn't be having some massive conference or letting Bitcoin ETFs or anything else trade.

490
00:49:00,725 --> 00:49:04,985
It's just the ability to say we're going to do it down here because it's not really China.

491
00:49:05,185 --> 00:49:07,345
But deep down, everybody knows it is China.

492
00:49:09,765 --> 00:49:10,245
That makes sense.

493
00:49:12,025 --> 00:49:13,105
I'm trying to think of like an analog.

494
00:49:13,585 --> 00:49:19,705
I was going to say like the Virgin Islands of Puerto Rico, but they're not really financial hubs or powerhouses.

495
00:49:19,705 --> 00:49:26,085
But well, I mean, it's it's essentially what Hong Kong was under British rule for 150 years.

496
00:49:26,665 --> 00:49:31,125
The same kind of thing. Yeah, that I mean, we don't have to dive down that rabbit hole.

497
00:49:31,205 --> 00:49:34,685
But the fact that Hong Kong was leased to the British Empire for 100 years is.

498
00:49:35,565 --> 00:49:47,185
Is insane to me, but let's let's reorient this back to the current day and the U.S.-China relationship, particularly Trump and Xi.

499
00:49:47,185 --> 00:49:50,765
you have it in the email that you sent

500
00:49:50,765 --> 00:49:54,025
that Trump is being outplayed.

501
00:49:54,205 --> 00:49:56,985
You mentioned it earlier, but you think percent understands

502
00:49:56,985 --> 00:50:01,505
the lack of leverage the U.S. has in these negotiations

503
00:50:01,505 --> 00:50:04,625
and this sort of chess match that we find ourselves in.

504
00:50:06,705 --> 00:50:07,305
Yeah.

505
00:50:07,705 --> 00:50:12,705
Well, let me give you the perfect sort of evidence

506
00:50:12,705 --> 00:50:14,505
of how things have changed.

507
00:50:14,505 --> 00:50:18,225
you've had three meetings over the course of this year

508
00:50:18,225 --> 00:50:21,165
there was one in Geneva

509
00:50:21,165 --> 00:50:22,685
I think one in the UK

510
00:50:22,685 --> 00:50:24,005
I forget where they were

511
00:50:24,005 --> 00:50:28,985
but you had the Geneva meeting happen

512
00:50:28,985 --> 00:50:30,425
and there was kind of this armistice

513
00:50:30,425 --> 00:50:31,925
okay everything's fine

514
00:50:31,925 --> 00:50:37,705
and then all of a sudden

515
00:50:37,705 --> 00:50:40,865
you had rare earths come into the equation

516
00:50:40,865 --> 00:50:44,405
and you had the US was talking about jet parts

517
00:50:44,405 --> 00:50:53,685
A whole bunch of different things. And for the first time, finally, Xi Jinping gets on the phone, talks to Trump, and they all agree, we're going to meet in Stockholm. We're going to iron the show.

518
00:50:54,605 --> 00:51:02,125
OK, a couple of things. Number one, that call happened supposedly on a Friday, and it was agreed that the parties would meet on a Monday.

519
00:51:02,125 --> 00:51:11,125
OK, and then they met on a Monday and then they came to what and I still can't believe this is being debated throughout the United States.

520
00:51:12,085 --> 00:51:14,565
This was a quid pro quo trade.

521
00:51:15,385 --> 00:51:17,945
China was like, look, we know you need the rare earths.

522
00:51:18,065 --> 00:51:18,765
You're still playing.

523
00:51:19,325 --> 00:51:20,425
You guys are being dicks.

524
00:51:20,965 --> 00:51:24,285
So we'll give you the rare earths and access to all of this.

525
00:51:24,685 --> 00:51:26,065
But you have to give us the H20.

526
00:51:26,185 --> 00:51:26,785
That's what we want.

527
00:51:26,905 --> 00:51:27,765
You've got to stop.

528
00:51:28,105 --> 00:51:29,685
You weaponize trade first.

529
00:51:30,085 --> 00:51:32,305
We're just reciprocating.

530
00:51:33,505 --> 00:51:38,665
That deal was essentially agreed to in a matter of a day and a half.

531
00:51:39,125 --> 00:51:40,545
Now, what's with the recap?

532
00:51:41,205 --> 00:51:50,005
In the entire time I've been here, number one, no meeting happens in 48 hours from the time some senior official says we should get this done.

533
00:51:50,485 --> 00:51:51,525
There's going to be talks.

534
00:51:51,625 --> 00:51:52,725
What are we going to do it?

535
00:51:52,765 --> 00:51:54,105
And it gets dragged out.

536
00:51:54,185 --> 00:51:57,365
The Chinese love the delay aspect of negotiations.

537
00:51:57,365 --> 00:52:09,925
And they know that the Americans, not even if they really are up against the wall, but Americans have had a tendency, from my experience, of being extremely impatient to do things.

538
00:52:10,105 --> 00:52:11,825
And the Chinese use that to their advantage.

539
00:52:12,845 --> 00:52:19,785
And then you have a deal that is agreed to in 72 hours, essentially, 48 hours maybe.

540
00:52:20,345 --> 00:52:25,065
That never happens except when the Chinese get everything they want.

541
00:52:25,065 --> 00:52:28,825
The Chinese will typically walk away and just see how things go.

542
00:52:29,345 --> 00:52:35,785
So as soon as that meeting was over, I laughed and I thought – I think I even put something up on Noster where I said, yeah, I know how this is going to play out.

543
00:52:36,505 --> 00:52:39,285
You know, and Besson had no cards.

544
00:52:39,965 --> 00:52:50,645
And in fact, they wrote – the US side wrote in their communique, and we will deliver what we promised to deliver with no details of what that was.

545
00:52:50,645 --> 00:52:57,365
They said the Chinese were going to deliver rare earths and the batteries and all that, but they didn't say what they were going to deliver.

546
00:52:57,505 --> 00:53:04,025
And then lo and behold, I think it was Siemens and somebody else was able to start selling their chip related equipment back into China.

547
00:53:04,625 --> 00:53:09,825
And then next, you know, it was the H20 and everybody in Washington lost their collective shit.

548
00:53:10,865 --> 00:53:14,165
Right. It was all about, oh, Trump is selling national security.

549
00:53:14,805 --> 00:53:15,665
Here's the thing.

550
00:53:17,405 --> 00:53:23,725
The amount of rare earths required for the defense industry in the United States never gets discussed.

551
00:53:24,425 --> 00:53:32,445
This was as much, if not more, about national security because of the limited access to rare earths than it was about giving China the H20.

552
00:53:33,105 --> 00:53:35,065
And nobody talks about that.

553
00:53:36,965 --> 00:53:40,125
So it's, you know, that's just one example.

554
00:53:40,125 --> 00:53:47,025
And this is why India exports – imports less oil from Russia than China does.

555
00:53:47,505 --> 00:53:49,765
China is still on the sidelines.

556
00:53:50,325 --> 00:53:56,425
Like all of this just demonstrates that Besant sitting there going, I need to keep the wheels on this bus.

557
00:53:56,525 --> 00:54:01,925
And the last thing that I need to do is have something in the supply chain go off the rails.

558
00:54:01,925 --> 00:54:10,465
and again like you can i don't think it bears repeating and i think you're

559
00:54:10,465 --> 00:54:14,265
you can repeat it too much like we are wholly dependent on this supply chain

560
00:54:14,265 --> 00:54:22,265
rares for the defense industry antibiotics consumer goods um like i'll give you the

561
00:54:22,265 --> 00:54:27,925
i'll give you the classic example so everybody everybody's talking about ai chips we control ai

562
00:54:27,925 --> 00:54:35,025
chips. China doesn't have access. Nobody asks, what is the primary ingredient or ingredients that

563
00:54:35,025 --> 00:54:43,445
go into high-end AI chips? Polysilicon. It's like the most purest silicon out there.

564
00:54:45,025 --> 00:54:49,205
It's sourced from China. The majority of it is sourced from China.

565
00:54:49,205 --> 00:54:56,025
So, you know, I try and say to people that, look, NVIDIA doesn't make chips.

566
00:54:57,605 --> 00:54:58,945
TSMC makes chips.

567
00:54:59,665 --> 00:55:01,325
Apple doesn't make iPhones.

568
00:55:02,285 --> 00:55:03,865
BoxCon makes iPhones.

569
00:55:04,885 --> 00:55:09,225
You have all of this focus on IP, and I think the IP is great.

570
00:55:09,225 --> 00:55:19,085
But if you don't control or have a dominant position in how that supply chain is actually going to work, what do you actually have?

571
00:55:19,205 --> 00:55:28,385
And what is the actual solution to this? I mean, this is what people aren't really asking because – okay, here's another anecdote.

572
00:55:28,385 --> 00:55:38,425
So the Biden administration, I think it was, is able to convince Taiwan Semi to come and build in Arizona, right? Fantastic.

573
00:55:38,965 --> 00:55:43,145
Give them a bunch of money, and it's supposed to be a fantastic, fantastic facility. Great.

574
00:55:43,145 --> 00:55:50,425
Three months ago, Taiwan Semi gets served a class action suit for discrimination.

575
00:55:53,325 --> 00:56:06,765
Because a whole bunch of people that came in for job interviews who were nowhere near qualified, basically were like, oh, they didn't want to hire us because we're Americans and they want to just bring in all of their own Taiwanese to do the jobs.

576
00:56:07,945 --> 00:56:09,405
And the courts took it.

577
00:56:10,045 --> 00:56:12,005
They didn't say, OK, we're going to dismiss this.

578
00:56:12,005 --> 00:56:13,365
They're like, OK, we should look into this.

579
00:56:14,805 --> 00:56:25,585
How are you going to build anything if you're not able to – I mean we can go down the rabbit hole that is are there enough people to do the jobs that need to be done in this whole ecosystem?

580
00:56:25,585 --> 00:56:40,365
But here we have something that is desperately needed and you have the litigious nature of the American society going to TSMC and saying, yeah, we're just going to target you because we didn't get a job.

581
00:56:40,365 --> 00:56:49,305
yeah and if i remember correctly too there was some like d d e i influence on on that

582
00:56:49,305 --> 00:56:55,065
litigiousness as well and i mean it goes in whether it's polysilicon being the raw input

583
00:56:55,065 --> 00:57:02,845
of the chips and then the the tsmc arizona foundry question like the intellectual capital

584
00:57:02,845 --> 00:57:10,025
that goes into building the building the foundry that makes the chips that's right raw input

585
00:57:10,025 --> 00:57:14,425
doesn't exist over here either because we hollow out a manufacturing base and

586
00:57:14,425 --> 00:57:24,085
deprioritize that education and it is uh it is extremely disheartening that yeah america has

587
00:57:24,085 --> 00:57:28,565
let it so and that's i think that what i'd really like to get out of this conversation

588
00:57:28,565 --> 00:57:34,905
um too is like what is the best path forward because to your point we don't have a lot of

589
00:57:34,905 --> 00:57:40,125
leverage i think it's pretty obvious we are completely beholden to the chinese supply chain

590
00:57:40,125 --> 00:57:45,985
right now it is clear that the administration and many americans myself included would like to

591
00:57:45,985 --> 00:57:53,685
de-risk that that dependency by building um building our own manufacturing base here in

592
00:57:53,685 --> 00:58:00,125
the united states building up the industrial base um as best that we can while maintaining

593
00:58:00,125 --> 00:58:12,385
I would like I'll speak for myself while maintaining an amicable relationship with our trade counterparts around the world that we are sort of diversifying away from.

594
00:58:12,385 --> 00:58:18,445
And so what I'd love to get out of this conversation is your mind, like what is the best path forward to make this happen?

595
00:58:18,985 --> 00:58:28,565
What needs to happen from a posturing perspective, a blocking and tackling policy decision making perspective?

596
00:58:28,565 --> 00:58:35,345
and how can we sort of get on a playing field and like, hey, let's put the cards on the table.

597
00:58:35,605 --> 00:58:38,525
We understand that we're beholden to you to a certain degree.

598
00:58:38,865 --> 00:58:41,305
We know the reserve system is out of favor.

599
00:58:41,625 --> 00:58:43,745
We want to rebuild our manufacturing base.

600
00:58:44,125 --> 00:58:45,965
What can we do to work together to make this happen?

601
00:58:47,185 --> 00:58:53,705
So there's really two complementary solutions that solve it.

602
00:58:53,785 --> 00:58:54,505
And here's the thing.

603
00:58:54,845 --> 00:58:56,645
You take a page out of the Chinese playbook.

604
00:58:57,485 --> 00:59:00,465
I tell people all the time, the Chinese playbook is pretty thin.

605
00:59:00,885 --> 00:59:04,185
There's not a lot of plays in there, but they're masterful at how they apply them.

606
00:59:04,785 --> 00:59:08,465
So you just do this, massive deregulation and joint ventures.

607
00:59:09,185 --> 00:59:13,285
You basically say to the Chinese, look, BYD, we love your cars.

608
00:59:13,325 --> 00:59:13,985
Your cars are great.

609
00:59:14,505 --> 00:59:18,945
We want you to come here and we're going to do a 5149 joint venture.

610
00:59:19,085 --> 00:59:20,905
We're going to have a bunch of rights and waivers.

611
00:59:21,305 --> 00:59:22,445
You're going to be able to run it.

612
00:59:22,905 --> 00:59:26,285
And we're going to put our own people in there and you're going to train them up.

613
00:59:26,645 --> 00:59:28,725
And you're going to be able to sell your cars into our market.

614
00:59:29,385 --> 00:59:32,525
Or you got, you know, DJI, let them do the same thing.

615
00:59:32,585 --> 00:59:34,725
I mean, all of the goods that are needed.

616
00:59:34,725 --> 00:59:40,905
Now, you can't go across the board, but you can be very smart about how you do this.

617
00:59:41,445 --> 00:59:56,625
But you have to have the deregulation element involved as well, because you cannot continue to get bogged down with all of the issues on, you know, I don't know, OSHA or, you know, liability and discrimination and all of this.

618
00:59:56,645 --> 01:00:03,925
And I'm sure that sounds extremely heartless. Hey, we're in this situation. We need to come up

619
01:00:03,925 --> 01:00:10,545
with solutions. You need the Chinese to invest. You need to lower the regulation. And then you'll

620
01:00:10,545 --> 01:00:15,345
train up a ton of people. That's how the Chinese got trained. The Chinese got trained through all

621
01:00:15,345 --> 01:00:21,345
of these joint ventures that got set up over the last 30 years. So ultimately, that is probably the

622
01:00:21,345 --> 01:00:28,725
best way forward. But I think the first step that would need to be taken by the United States

623
01:00:28,725 --> 01:00:33,505
would be for there to be some big coming together with the Chinese president

624
01:00:33,505 --> 01:00:41,185
and a sit down where the United States says, we recognize that our two countries are equals.

625
01:00:42,125 --> 01:00:47,885
And I think that that's going to be a very difficult ask of the United States government.

626
01:00:47,885 --> 01:00:52,445
And that's really what the Chinese want is just give us give us the face, give us the miens.

627
01:00:53,405 --> 01:00:57,165
Tell us that we're equals and we're good to go. And I think that that would work.

628
01:01:00,445 --> 01:01:05,305
And. We've been running another thing we're going to touch on, we've been running under this stuff.

629
01:01:05,352 --> 01:01:06,352
We have zero leverage.

630
01:01:06,472 --> 01:01:09,552
I think, as a matter of fact, what leverage do we have?

631
01:01:10,092 --> 01:01:12,172
I find it hard to believe that it's exactly zero.

632
01:01:12,372 --> 01:01:14,492
Like what leverage do we have?

633
01:01:14,632 --> 01:01:15,692
Is it our consumer base?

634
01:01:15,892 --> 01:01:20,252
Is it the entrepreneurial spirit?

635
01:01:21,672 --> 01:01:22,492
Oh, OK.

636
01:01:22,532 --> 01:01:23,752
Now you're talking about something different.

637
01:01:23,852 --> 01:01:25,172
Now we're talking about DNA.

638
01:01:25,492 --> 01:01:26,272
I mean there's a couple of things.

639
01:01:26,272 --> 01:01:31,392
Number one, what leverage right now does the United States have?

640
01:01:32,032 --> 01:01:33,752
And very simply, it would be the market.

641
01:01:33,752 --> 01:01:41,672
Even though China has very meticulously reduced its dependency on exports to the United States over the last six years.

642
01:01:42,372 --> 01:01:56,012
I mean, as a quick aside, I think one of the biggest tactical mistakes that Donald Trump made in his first term was very loudly proclaiming all of the various target vectors that were present in China.

643
01:01:57,152 --> 01:02:00,412
Talking about, oh, they need us for our capital markets.

644
01:02:01,312 --> 01:02:03,192
They need us for our markets, so on and so forth.

645
01:02:03,752 --> 01:02:09,512
And the Chinese kind of, from the conversations I had, the Chinese were like, he's not wrong.

646
01:02:10,572 --> 01:02:21,172
And once he was out of office, they spent four or five years addressing the vast majority of those issues, which put them in a much stronger position going into Trump 2.0.

647
01:02:21,992 --> 01:02:32,892
But the market, if there was a significant reduction in access to the United States market, it would have a tremendous, tremendous negative effect on the Chinese economy.

648
01:02:33,072 --> 01:02:33,692
No question.

649
01:02:33,752 --> 01:02:41,512
It would also, though, leave so many shelves empty in the United States.

650
01:02:41,712 --> 01:02:43,452
So it becomes this battle of attrition.

651
01:02:44,192 --> 01:02:47,232
Who can suffer the pain the most?

652
01:02:47,992 --> 01:02:50,092
But the market's still, I think, super important.

653
01:02:52,452 --> 01:02:55,472
I mean, leverage-wise, the United States has the biggest military.

654
01:02:56,792 --> 01:03:00,072
The United States has access to financial markets.

655
01:03:00,072 --> 01:03:03,572
I mean, there are what I refer to as nuclear options.

656
01:03:03,752 --> 01:03:20,172
And I don't think Besson wants to go down that route. But I would argue geopolitically, the most leverage, and I put this in the email because this is going to – people's heads are going to explode later this year when this comes out, is Taiwan.

657
01:03:20,172 --> 01:03:28,972
like a bit of history. Just bear with me for a second. In 1999, the United States accidentally

658
01:03:28,972 --> 01:03:33,932
bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. It was Mother's Day in 1999. I'll never forget it.

659
01:03:34,692 --> 01:03:44,312
And it was a bit dodgy here. There was a lot of anger. And Bill Clinton,

660
01:03:44,312 --> 01:03:50,732
And oh, no, I'm sorry. I take that back. I won't go into the details. Long story short,

661
01:03:51,172 --> 01:03:56,652
Bill Clinton owed Jiang Zemin, President of China, a favor. Jiang Zemin had done something for Bill

662
01:03:56,652 --> 01:04:01,972
Clinton in terms of making sure he could get reelected so he wasn't causing problems in the

663
01:04:01,972 --> 01:04:09,312
East China Sea. Bill Clinton came out here in 1998, and he has this infamous three-nose speech.

664
01:04:09,312 --> 01:04:20,332
And the three no's were basically President Clinton reaffirming, essentially, the American one China policy of saying there's only one China.

665
01:04:20,992 --> 01:04:25,132
Taiwan and China are both the same one China.

666
01:04:25,552 --> 01:04:28,132
And the United States does not support independence.

667
01:04:29,252 --> 01:04:30,292
And that was it.

668
01:04:30,332 --> 01:04:31,312
The Chinese were super happy.

669
01:04:31,632 --> 01:04:32,852
They were like, OK, we're good to go.

670
01:04:32,952 --> 01:04:34,312
Just verbal.

671
01:04:34,312 --> 01:05:02,772
And I think when President Trump comes out here, part of the negotiations, he's going to do something similar. And the quid pro quo that he wants from this, and I kid you not, TikTok. He wants TikTok. And he's going to say, I'll come out and talk about how there's only one China, and you're going to give me TikTok. And then, you know, this is a little bit for us on this call. TikTok, once Trump owns it or his buddies own it, becomes essentially a poison chalice.

672
01:05:02,772 --> 01:05:05,352
how many people in the United States are going to want to use

673
01:05:05,352 --> 01:05:07,392
TikTok if Trump's buddies own it, right?

674
01:05:08,832 --> 01:05:09,912
So where are they going to go?

675
01:05:10,372 --> 01:05:12,712
Well, some of them are going to come here and they're going to go to Red Note.

676
01:05:14,212 --> 01:05:17,412
But most likely, a lot of people are going to all of a sudden learn about Nostra real quick.

677
01:05:20,292 --> 01:05:20,472
Yeah.

678
01:05:22,612 --> 01:05:27,932
So that's, I think, the Taiwan issue is really where the most language lies.

679
01:05:29,792 --> 01:05:32,712
And you have it in the email, too.

680
01:05:32,772 --> 01:05:39,112
the if you look at the map the u.s have china cut off across the east from japan to south korea to

681
01:05:39,112 --> 01:05:45,052
the philippines and australia and so there's this perception that china is really close but it seems

682
01:05:45,052 --> 01:05:51,672
like the the u.s has allies in the region that that create this sort of stalemate in terms of

683
01:05:51,672 --> 01:05:58,252
preventing china from trying to take it over and the whole meme of china trying to take it over

684
01:05:58,252 --> 01:06:01,272
You're literally having a kinetic war around Taiwan.

685
01:06:01,372 --> 01:06:07,212
It just makes no sense considering the strategic importance of the foundries that are housed there.

686
01:06:08,092 --> 01:06:11,052
So let me – just bear with me.

687
01:06:11,072 --> 01:06:14,372
I know it's a bit off topic, but I think it's important maybe for you but also for your audience.

688
01:06:15,592 --> 01:06:20,192
Allow me to sort of state with a pretty emphatic level of confidence.

689
01:06:21,052 --> 01:06:27,512
China is not going to be invading Taiwan anytime in the near future no matter what you read or hear on social media or elsewhere.

690
01:06:28,092 --> 01:06:30,932
China's going to invade by 2027 because Xi Jinping said so.

691
01:06:31,372 --> 01:06:31,952
No, he didn't.

692
01:06:32,572 --> 01:06:37,832
He said for the military to be prepared for what needs to be done.

693
01:06:38,532 --> 01:06:39,532
Jiang Zemin said that.

694
01:06:39,632 --> 01:06:40,532
Wu Jingtao said that.

695
01:06:40,572 --> 01:06:41,972
They've all said it's the same thing.

696
01:06:42,832 --> 01:06:47,132
But OK, let's ignore what these communist leaders say.

697
01:06:47,172 --> 01:06:47,812
They're politicians.

698
01:06:48,372 --> 01:06:49,352
We don't listen to politicians.

699
01:06:50,552 --> 01:06:52,092
Here's an interesting fun fact.

700
01:06:53,312 --> 01:06:56,052
China never really wins wars.

701
01:06:56,052 --> 01:07:08,872
If you look over the last 700, 800 years, better part of 1,000 years, China was taken over first by the Mongolians and then by the Manchurians.

702
01:07:10,052 --> 01:07:13,172
And this is when you get the Yuan dynasty.

703
01:07:13,552 --> 01:07:16,512
Then the Ming dynasty came in and was like, OK, we're going to be Han Chinese again.

704
01:07:17,212 --> 01:07:22,832
And then you had the Manchurians come in and it was the last dynasty, the Qing dynasty.

705
01:07:22,832 --> 01:07:38,492
The reason I bring that up is China has learned that the way in which they exert control as the ethnic Han Chinese, which 95% of all Chinese are, is through what I refer to politely and diplomatically as assimilation.

706
01:07:39,472 --> 01:07:48,912
Meaning you, over time, over generations, through marriage and family and whatnot, you end up all becoming Han Chinese again.

707
01:07:48,912 --> 01:07:59,852
And it's like, okay, we lost the war. We're not going to try to have this resistance or anything else. We're just going to intermarry and whatnot and give us a couple hundred years and we'll be back in power.

708
01:08:00,452 --> 01:08:13,472
And the reason I bring that up is this is what happened in Hong Kong. And it's Hong Kong that I think is extremely important as a case for what is going on with regard to Taiwan.

709
01:08:13,472 --> 01:08:19,452
And when I first came to China and the first time I went to Hong Kong was in 1994.

710
01:08:20,792 --> 01:08:23,752
And Hong Kong was British.

711
01:08:24,372 --> 01:08:26,312
Everybody spoke Cantonese, completely British.

712
01:08:27,592 --> 01:08:33,392
Over the course of 20 odd years, Hong Kong became a nothing but another Chinese city.

713
01:08:33,932 --> 01:08:37,832
The majority of people who were living in Hong Kong were from the mainland.

714
01:08:37,832 --> 01:08:55,232
So when China decided – and by the way, I should mention, in terms of all the things that China has done, this was I think the dumbest geopolitical mistake under Xi Jinping since he's been here, was taking over Hong Kong in the way that he did.

715
01:08:55,652 --> 01:09:00,192
Basically putting the stamp on it saying we're going to make this a real province, if you will.

716
01:09:00,192 --> 01:09:11,912
But the reason it was so relatively successful with limited violence, there was violence, but nowhere near to the extent of, say, Tiananmen Square, was because everybody down there was already Chinese and they were like, yeah, we're used to this.

717
01:09:12,012 --> 01:09:12,872
Okay, whatever.

718
01:09:14,592 --> 01:09:16,572
Compare that example with Taiwan.

719
01:09:17,092 --> 01:09:22,452
Even if China was able to go in, they wouldn't be able to so-called win the peace.

720
01:09:22,532 --> 01:09:23,752
There's no assimilation.

721
01:09:24,472 --> 01:09:27,172
Everybody in Taiwan are essentially Taiwanese.

722
01:09:27,172 --> 01:09:41,652
And the Taiwanese, because they are Han Chinese and they understand this, it's the reason why they have been so reluctant to allow for any mainland Chinese to come and reside in Taiwan.

723
01:09:42,912 --> 01:09:44,952
Because they know that this is how you can play.

724
01:09:45,112 --> 01:09:46,232
You just – it's – what's it called?

725
01:09:47,232 --> 01:09:50,532
The fifth – I don't know.

726
01:09:51,012 --> 01:09:51,652
Fifth column.

727
01:09:52,292 --> 01:09:53,352
Fifth column, thank you.

728
01:09:53,392 --> 01:09:54,612
It's the fifth column approach.

729
01:09:54,732 --> 01:09:56,192
And the Chinese have been brilliant at that.

730
01:09:56,192 --> 01:10:06,432
So because there's an inability to win the peace, and especially there's no assimilation, China's not going to risk doing anything at this stage.

731
01:10:06,532 --> 01:10:08,072
They're just going to play for time.

732
01:10:08,952 --> 01:10:12,572
And this I just continue to see not being addressed anywhere.

733
01:10:12,712 --> 01:10:15,832
People just want to focus on the United States.

734
01:10:16,052 --> 01:10:16,972
We're going to be there.

735
01:10:17,072 --> 01:10:18,172
They're going to attack by 2020.

736
01:10:18,752 --> 01:10:21,092
So what happens when 2027 comes and go?

737
01:10:21,152 --> 01:10:22,192
You're just going to move the goalposts?

738
01:10:25,092 --> 01:10:25,532
Yeah.

739
01:10:26,192 --> 01:10:32,832
Probably. I mean, that's the modus operandi for politics, at least here.

740
01:10:33,432 --> 01:10:37,532
Sorry about that. Sorry about that. I went rogue. I'm not sure if you want to talk about it.

741
01:10:37,532 --> 01:10:44,012
I think that assimilation context is very important, especially as it pertains to Taiwan.

742
01:10:44,252 --> 01:10:48,212
I was completely unaware of that context, and it makes sense.

743
01:10:48,212 --> 01:10:52,152
again, I think it's important

744
01:10:52,152 --> 01:10:55,932
I want to surface as many of these fundamental misunderstandings

745
01:10:55,932 --> 01:10:58,512
as possible, because again, going back to

746
01:10:58,512 --> 01:11:04,072
and Matt alluded to it, he's like, be careful, this guy's very pro-China

747
01:11:04,072 --> 01:11:07,912
and I don't want anybody here to think that I'm pro-China, I've had Bellagio on, he's put a very

748
01:11:07,912 --> 01:11:12,192
pro-China, bullish China

749
01:11:12,192 --> 01:11:15,912
bearish future of the United States thesis out there

750
01:11:15,912 --> 01:11:22,852
And as an American, like as somebody who wants to get to the truth of things, truth for the

751
01:11:22,852 --> 01:11:27,112
commoner is what this what this company is called, TFTC.

752
01:11:27,572 --> 01:11:41,180
And I think we should explore both sides of the argument and try to better understand with the intent of getting to a point where if you have better understanding you can actually get things done to that point

753
01:11:41,180 --> 01:11:47,640
Like I worry that we're spending years with all this jockeying and moving pieces on the chessboard

754
01:11:47,640 --> 01:11:53,739
with fundamental misunderstandings that don't actually allow us to get to a point where we can

755
01:11:53,739 --> 01:12:00,199
have productive outcomes and so like how much time are we wasting what is the opportunity cost of

756
01:12:00,199 --> 01:12:07,879
doing all this posturing and sable rattling from a position of misunderstanding that just

757
01:12:07,879 --> 01:12:17,520
forces us down a path of delayed productive outcomes yeah and i'm in agreement and i do

758
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:22,239
want to circle back to a point you made which is look i want like i'm i'm a child i'm a child

759
01:12:22,239 --> 01:12:23,239
with the Reagan revolution.

760
01:12:23,779 --> 01:12:24,999
My most formative years

761
01:12:24,999 --> 01:12:27,260
were from 1980 to 1988.

762
01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:31,119
And as someone who's lived

763
01:12:31,119 --> 01:12:31,979
out of the country,

764
01:12:32,239 --> 01:12:34,059
travels back a couple times a year,

765
01:12:34,720 --> 01:12:36,959
just the snapshots each year when I go,

766
01:12:37,479 --> 01:12:41,659
I'm just shocked at how

767
01:12:41,659 --> 01:12:43,520
the stripping away of freedom,

768
01:12:44,159 --> 01:12:45,119
as I wrote today,

769
01:12:45,260 --> 01:12:47,279
it's like the sovereignty of it all,

770
01:12:47,279 --> 01:12:48,180
the independence.

771
01:12:49,119 --> 01:12:51,840
Go out and make it happen for yourself.

772
01:12:52,239 --> 01:12:57,340
Um, and there are just so many gatekeepers across the board all over the place.

773
01:12:58,239 --> 01:13:03,579
Um, and it just seems as though that there's this, this, this element of fear that exists

774
01:13:03,579 --> 01:13:07,340
throughout the United States of, you know, I don't want to sound like all hokey, right?

775
01:13:07,379 --> 01:13:09,319
Like the scarcity mentality.

776
01:13:09,760 --> 01:13:14,419
The United States is still the greatest, easily greatest country on earth.

777
01:13:14,559 --> 01:13:15,220
All of it.

778
01:13:15,499 --> 01:13:19,079
It just needs to go back to what it used to be.

779
01:13:19,079 --> 01:13:22,100
And I don't mean the 1950s and all that horrible stuff.

780
01:13:22,399 --> 01:13:27,079
I'm just talking about, hey, let's get on with the business of doing business.

781
01:13:27,819 --> 01:13:31,939
And let's get – regulatory capture for me, it just drives me insane.

782
01:13:32,579 --> 01:13:37,840
Like that has got to be – you saw that picture, all the tech titans having dinner with Trump.

783
01:13:39,399 --> 01:13:43,039
I mean that's about as shiny as China gets.

784
01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:45,919
Yeah.

785
01:13:47,119 --> 01:13:48,939
It's become, I guess.

786
01:13:49,079 --> 01:13:56,239
particularly with the trump administration where it is it there's a lot of sycophants who just want

787
01:13:56,239 --> 01:14:02,499
to be seen next time the lead up to the election was like we've got the tech the tech right the

788
01:14:02,499 --> 01:14:08,899
tech people are all right now they they're they're absolving themselves of the sins of dei and what

789
01:14:08,899 --> 01:14:16,419
politics and bending the knee to the progressive left and now it's cool to be conservative and

790
01:14:16,419 --> 01:14:22,479
free market oriented but it's all it's all about who can be seen in a picture with trump which

791
01:14:22,479 --> 01:14:28,619
like literally they're i've got invited to meetings with trump or so you pay a hundred

792
01:14:28,619 --> 01:14:33,819
grand to get a picture with them when they were leading up to the campaign it's like it's uh

793
01:14:33,819 --> 01:14:41,439
it's a lot of um a lot of sizzle no stake in terms of substance it's it's really um

794
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:46,800
it's really like a social posturing and sort of hierarchy game that's being

795
01:14:46,800 --> 01:14:50,279
played where it's like, I, let's actually get some shit done here.

796
01:14:50,279 --> 01:14:53,439
And I, with that being said,

797
01:14:53,499 --> 01:14:57,739
like I much prefer Trump in office than Kamala, but like going back to,

798
01:14:58,199 --> 01:15:03,659
um, there's so many just idiotic mistakes, like in our space,

799
01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:07,419
like launching world Liberty financial, launching the Trump meme coin,

800
01:15:07,419 --> 01:15:12,520
Like just idiot, like no, like no reason to do it.

801
01:15:13,020 --> 01:15:16,819
But it's just idiotic mistake.

802
01:15:17,359 --> 01:15:21,239
And you bring up a really good point.

803
01:15:21,359 --> 01:15:30,859
I think there's a couple of points where I think, you know, if you look at biology, I think it's I always find him fascinating because it's like, OK, number one, enough with the slideshows.

804
01:15:30,859 --> 01:15:33,079
We get it. Right. China produces everything.

805
01:15:33,079 --> 01:15:45,399
But what he never really addresses, and I think this is an important point, is China right now is attempting to traverse from one economic model to the next.

806
01:15:45,720 --> 01:15:59,819
They're trying to move from growth model that was driven by real estate, infrastructure, a little bit of exports, if you will, to one that is going to be high-end manufacturing, more consumption, still exports, but on the higher end.

807
01:15:59,819 --> 01:16:20,999
And I'll be honest with you. I have no idea if it's going to work. Nobody does. Because you also have, on top of all of this, gobs of debt. I mean, the local governments are just absolutely getting themselves – they can't pay bills.

808
01:16:21,819 --> 01:16:25,520
So you can look at all of the, oh, look, they're building this, they're building that.

809
01:16:25,559 --> 01:16:26,439
And I think that's fantastic.

810
01:16:26,559 --> 01:16:29,119
I think there has been an enormous amount of positive momentum there.

811
01:16:29,779 --> 01:16:35,419
But much like the G7, you have tremendous, tremendous debt.

812
01:16:35,619 --> 01:16:41,340
What I will say, and as I commented to you, my catchphrase has been, Keynes is dead in China.

813
01:16:42,100 --> 01:16:47,539
And what I mean by that is you would have seen a lot of headlines saying, oh, look, China's issuing tons and tons of bonds.

814
01:16:47,979 --> 01:16:48,399
They have.

815
01:16:48,399 --> 01:16:57,779
But the majority of those bonds are actually being used to go restructure local government debt in a way that is more transparent.

816
01:16:59,020 --> 01:17:02,419
Now, left pocket, right pocket, it's still a mound of debt.

817
01:17:02,859 --> 01:17:05,779
And you're trying to move to a whole new economic model.

818
01:17:06,479 --> 01:17:09,979
I will certainly give the Chinese credit for rolling the dice.

819
01:17:11,039 --> 01:17:14,680
But you're talking 1.4 billion people.

820
01:17:15,499 --> 01:17:16,899
Property values are still underwater.

821
01:17:16,899 --> 01:17:18,979
stock markets finally starting to catch up.

822
01:17:20,600 --> 01:17:25,119
There's been a bit of a renaissance in terms of sentiment over the course of the last six

823
01:17:25,119 --> 01:17:25,800
or seven months.

824
01:17:26,899 --> 01:17:31,359
But this is not a foregone conclusion.

825
01:17:32,220 --> 01:17:33,479
China is going to have to.

826
01:17:33,520 --> 01:17:34,600
I mean, there's a lot of luck involved.

827
01:17:35,020 --> 01:17:38,159
If the United States didn't go to war for 20 years, would China be where it is?

828
01:17:38,239 --> 01:17:39,020
Probably not.

829
01:17:39,819 --> 01:17:44,439
If the United States didn't focus on a lot more of these social issues that were nonsense,

830
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:49,319
DEI and what have you. Would China have been able to progress as far as they have? Probably not.

831
01:17:51,039 --> 01:17:54,899
What's the joke, Marty? When you're digging a hole and you're trying to get out,

832
01:17:54,999 --> 01:18:00,359
the first thing you need to do is stop digging. The United States needs to stop digging.

833
01:18:05,779 --> 01:18:11,539
What would be the first step to stop digging in your mind? What's the first thing to do?

834
01:18:11,539 --> 01:18:24,999
It's a sit down in Beijing between Trump and Xi where they say, OK, we're going to figure this out and we want to make sure that we're working together, that we're peers.

835
01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:30,680
We're going to try to figure out a way that we can share the sphere of influence throughout Asia.

836
01:18:31,219 --> 01:18:39,020
I don't think China would even ask for, let alone with the Trump administration, even say things like, oh, you know, Japan's yours, Korea's there, what have you.

837
01:18:39,020 --> 01:18:41,459
It's just, look, we respect you.

838
01:18:41,639 --> 01:18:43,319
We want to try to find ways to work together.

839
01:18:43,819 --> 01:18:51,020
We've had 30 years, 30 years of collaboration that has led to prosperity and to peace.

840
01:18:51,180 --> 01:18:59,659
Now, granted, that prosperity has not been all that well received by lower income levels throughout the United States, the working class.

841
01:19:00,300 --> 01:19:05,020
That's something the United States is going to have to try to figure out, whether it's a UBI or whatever they're going to try to do.

842
01:19:05,020 --> 01:19:13,059
But the very first step is to just sit down and say, OK, the world is big enough for these two nations to be able to get along.

843
01:19:13,899 --> 01:19:19,600
And again, the the degree of. And I hate this word, so please, I apologize.

844
01:19:19,840 --> 01:19:25,800
I just it's the only one. The synergy that exists between these two nations economically.

845
01:19:27,139 --> 01:19:29,840
There's a reason why it worked so well for so long.

846
01:19:29,840 --> 01:19:41,880
It just needs to be adjusted to come up with a way that all of the identified problems, let's say, the United States has with regard to manufacturing can get addressed.

847
01:19:41,999 --> 01:19:44,020
That's where I was talking about joint ventures and the like.

848
01:19:44,520 --> 01:19:46,319
Let China invest in the United States.

849
01:19:46,999 --> 01:19:48,840
Stop freaking out about farmland.

850
01:19:49,199 --> 01:19:54,919
I mean, you're just – guys, like you're making a big deal over something that might have an issue.

851
01:19:54,919 --> 01:19:57,919
But the Chinese are just looking to figure out a way.

852
01:19:58,300 --> 01:20:04,919
How can we take our hard currency, get it out of the country and put it somewhere in the United States is still the best place in town?

853
01:20:07,079 --> 01:20:09,360
Yeah, I mean, that's a very controversial one and one.

854
01:20:09,959 --> 01:20:16,699
I'll admit that does give me pause, particularly if they're buying around military bases.

855
01:20:17,239 --> 01:20:19,539
I mean, that was a big, big thing in Texas specifically.

856
01:20:19,680 --> 01:20:22,939
I think Texas outlawed it outright last year.

857
01:20:22,939 --> 01:20:28,959
And I think that's – I think if there are strategic areas that you shouldn't – absolutely that makes sense.

858
01:20:29,539 --> 01:20:31,100
The United States has got a lot of farmland.

859
01:20:31,199 --> 01:20:33,680
You don't have to buy it right next to Fort Bragg.

860
01:20:35,340 --> 01:20:35,779
Yeah.

861
01:20:36,079 --> 01:20:38,680
Well, that's the other thing I wonder about.

862
01:20:38,760 --> 01:20:41,399
Maybe I'm extremely naive, idolistic.

863
01:20:41,399 --> 01:20:52,439
But to me – I mean we saw there was the two Chinese researchers in Michigan who were arrested for bringing in that fungus that could kill crops.

864
01:20:52,439 --> 01:20:57,039
We've seen obviously the whole COVID thing with the Wuhan lab,

865
01:20:57,159 --> 01:21:01,319
but there was some internet like NIH was funding the lab and the Chinese were

866
01:21:01,319 --> 01:21:05,680
running it. And so there is this, there is this sort of,

867
01:21:05,719 --> 01:21:13,559
you do have to have your guards up to a certain degree, but maybe I'm naive,

868
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:17,499
maybe I'm idealist, but I think,

869
01:21:17,979 --> 01:21:18,239
I mean,

870
01:21:18,239 --> 01:21:25,380
get to a point where the relationship is on good footing and you have free equal fair trade between

871
01:21:25,380 --> 01:21:34,319
the countries it's a good deal like the incentive to play these war games and um these spy games if

872
01:21:34,319 --> 01:21:39,439
you will is decreased a bit and then the the incentive is to cooperate and not try to sabotage

873
01:21:39,439 --> 01:21:45,639
each other yeah and and again i think this is a this is a good point and and i always stress this

874
01:21:45,639 --> 01:21:50,639
China is an absolute lover of the word asymmetry.

875
01:21:50,639 --> 01:21:54,639
It's all they're looking for is how can they do little things that have bigger impacts?

876
01:21:54,639 --> 01:22:10,087
So do I think that you got people coming into the United States that are trying to find ways to be able to undermine systems the electrical grid and everything else I absolutely do I mean when you what did I write to you right

877
01:22:10,647 --> 01:22:16,407
If you go for the king, you better not miss. And so there's going to be a lot of things that are

878
01:22:16,407 --> 01:22:23,607
going to be going on that we're not aware of, a lot of nefarious actions. I wouldn't put it past

879
01:22:23,607 --> 01:22:32,087
the Chinese to do it. This is kind of their modus operandi. But at the same time, sometimes a cigar

880
01:22:32,087 --> 01:22:38,587
is just a cigar. So you have to find a way, I think, to be a little bit judicious in how you

881
01:22:38,587 --> 01:22:46,027
go and target it. And by the way, if you want my point of view on COVID, because COVID here was,

882
01:22:47,167 --> 01:22:52,207
well, that's a whole different story. I guarantee you, this was literally somebody was somewhere,

883
01:22:52,207 --> 01:22:59,087
dropped something, and it escaped. It's as simple as that. Now, the Chinese are not going to admit

884
01:22:59,087 --> 01:23:04,167
that. That's a huge loss of face. So what do they do? They're like, oh, it came from the United

885
01:23:04,167 --> 01:23:10,347
States. Come on, man. Nobody believes that. I mean, I know there's some supposed incredible

886
01:23:10,347 --> 01:23:16,007
theories coming up. But as I see it, they took the SAR, the original SARs from 2003, where I was here,

887
01:23:16,587 --> 01:23:20,207
and they were funking around with it, getting some funding from the United States. God knows

888
01:23:20,207 --> 01:23:22,047
what reason. Some guys

889
01:23:22,047 --> 01:23:24,087
have lunch one day and he's handling

890
01:23:24,087 --> 01:23:25,507
a Petri dish and he trips.

891
01:23:26,387 --> 01:23:28,147
I've seen things like

892
01:23:28,147 --> 01:23:30,267
this happen. Not to that extent

893
01:23:30,267 --> 01:23:32,207
mind you, but I've seen

894
01:23:32,207 --> 01:23:34,427
big things happen

895
01:23:34,427 --> 01:23:35,847
over very trivial

896
01:23:35,847 --> 01:23:37,427
catalysts.

897
01:23:38,387 --> 01:23:38,447
No.

898
01:23:39,927 --> 01:23:40,667
No, and then

899
01:23:40,667 --> 01:23:42,407
two other things I want to talk about.

900
01:23:44,847 --> 01:23:46,307
Again, it seems to me

901
01:23:46,307 --> 01:23:48,227
that China thinks in centuries

902
01:23:48,227 --> 01:23:52,867
not quarters, which is very important for Westerners to understand.

903
01:23:53,267 --> 01:24:07,967
And I was brought up in the discussion yesterday, like how much the how much of like the outcome of the opium wars and the century between like 1918,

904
01:24:07,967 --> 01:24:16,947
1950 and 1950 is seeped in the psyche of the Chinese to the extent where they have it internally.

905
01:24:17,167 --> 01:24:18,607
Like we never want that to happen again.

906
01:24:18,707 --> 01:24:22,867
We don't want to get owned by foreigners to that extent ever again.

907
01:24:25,307 --> 01:24:29,627
No, I mean it's called the 200 years of humiliation, whatever it's called.

908
01:24:30,767 --> 01:24:33,307
Yeah, that is front and center.

909
01:24:34,447 --> 01:24:35,907
I mean it's taught in schools.

910
01:24:35,907 --> 01:24:41,267
You know, the whole drug culture here, zero tolerance, man.

911
01:24:41,927 --> 01:24:43,967
Like, do not get caught with drugs in China.

912
01:24:44,427 --> 01:24:45,107
Full stop.

913
01:24:45,187 --> 01:24:47,847
I mean, there's zero tolerance for DWI.

914
01:24:48,087 --> 01:24:50,687
You get caught drinking and driving here, you're in jail for 10 days.

915
01:24:51,087 --> 01:24:52,367
No questions asked.

916
01:24:54,147 --> 01:24:59,047
So that's definitely in the back of their minds.

917
01:24:59,207 --> 01:25:05,087
But it's not what I would consider to be a driving motivation.

918
01:25:05,087 --> 01:25:13,967
I mean, the driving motivation is chaos, meaning what transpired during that hundred years is you had warlords, you had civil war.

919
01:25:14,087 --> 01:25:18,927
I mean, it was pure chaos.

920
01:25:19,827 --> 01:25:32,327
And over that 5,000 years, if you go through the Chinese history, you find that typically this is when there's always a turnover in dynasties is things get so chaotic and the country breaks apart.

921
01:25:32,327 --> 01:25:37,347
that you have to have somebody as a new strongman come in and try to keep it together.

922
01:25:38,407 --> 01:25:46,027
So that is a number one priority is making sure that there is stability as best as possible

923
01:25:46,027 --> 01:25:54,807
throughout the system. Now, the opium wars and being owned by any, I mean, even being owned

924
01:25:54,807 --> 01:26:01,407
on a diplomatic level is viewed as being like, you know, the opium wars. You know,

925
01:26:01,407 --> 01:26:03,667
you want to make sure that you're being viewed as an equal.

926
01:26:03,947 --> 01:26:05,847
And right now I keep coming back to this.

927
01:26:06,387 --> 01:26:10,187
Most of the countries around the world will sort of tacitly view China as an

928
01:26:10,187 --> 01:26:10,507
equal,

929
01:26:10,947 --> 01:26:12,787
the large G seven nations.

930
01:26:13,247 --> 01:26:14,827
The U S is the only one that does not.

931
01:26:16,247 --> 01:26:18,147
So yeah,

932
01:26:18,147 --> 01:26:19,267
I think it's,

933
01:26:19,267 --> 01:26:21,147
it's stability more than anything else.

934
01:26:23,767 --> 01:26:24,207
Yeah.

935
01:26:24,227 --> 01:26:25,267
That's another big topic here.

936
01:26:25,267 --> 01:26:29,267
Like is the fentanyl crisis a reverse opium war tactic?

937
01:26:30,587 --> 01:26:30,767
Yeah.

938
01:26:30,767 --> 01:26:32,387
destabilize what's happening.

939
01:26:33,787 --> 01:26:34,407
Oh, I think so.

940
01:26:35,667 --> 01:26:36,067
Yeah.

941
01:26:36,167 --> 01:26:36,767
Oh, I think so.

942
01:26:37,207 --> 01:26:37,367
Yeah.

943
01:26:37,407 --> 01:26:40,087
I mean, it's, again, it goes back to my issue about asymmetry.

944
01:26:41,267 --> 01:26:45,267
And I think the way in which the Chinese are doing it, I think is, again, it goes to the

945
01:26:45,267 --> 01:26:45,587
brilliance.

946
01:26:45,587 --> 01:26:50,347
I mean, I don't mean to sound callous with regard to the outcome, but, you know, they

947
01:26:50,347 --> 01:26:53,827
can honestly say, hey, look, we're doing what we can.

948
01:26:53,927 --> 01:26:55,267
We're not actually sending the fentanyl.

949
01:26:55,367 --> 01:26:56,447
We're just sending the precursors.

950
01:26:56,567 --> 01:26:59,307
And those precursors can be used for a whole bunch of different things.

951
01:26:59,307 --> 01:27:11,827
It just so happens that it's being sold to Mexico. But the Chinese will also look at it and say, hey, you need to close your borders and you need to get this drug issue under control.

952
01:27:12,567 --> 01:27:19,807
And as much as I think that there is a driving element with regard to the Chinese using asymmetry in their tactics to be able to exploit this, no doubt.

953
01:27:20,547 --> 01:27:26,507
I also think that this is what it should be within the power of the American government to stop it.

954
01:27:26,507 --> 01:27:50,147
It's a supply and demand issue. I'm not saying, oh, the war on drugs. But I think there's a lot of money being made by a lot of groups across the whole border. So if you were to stop the demand issue of it, I think there would be – China would be like, all right, we're out of here. We'll figure something else out. But yeah, I'm not going to sit here and say, oh, no, it's just a coincidence. It's not a coincidence.

955
01:27:50,147 --> 01:27:55,307
no no there was just a book written apparently there's

956
01:27:55,307 --> 01:28:01,927
u.s military uh personnel that were that were working with the cartels to move all this stuff

957
01:28:01,927 --> 01:28:04,147
it is uh

958
01:28:04,147 --> 01:28:15,147
are you optimistic or worried about this the future state of the relationship between

959
01:28:15,147 --> 01:28:22,907
the United States and China? Do you think that Trump, probably via the behest of Scott

960
01:28:22,907 --> 01:28:30,347
percent and the advice of Scott percent, can come to recognize the this sort of way, the

961
01:28:30,347 --> 01:28:36,907
best way to do business with the Chinese and swallow his pride a bit and actually get

962
01:28:36,907 --> 01:28:41,947
something productive done? Or do you think we're destined to continue down this sort

963
01:28:41,947 --> 01:28:52,687
saber rattling um uh sort of very uh what's the word i'm looking for confrontational relationship

964
01:28:52,687 --> 01:29:02,447
yeah so in my own dna i'm a raging optimist uh probably much to uh my and probably not too

965
01:29:02,447 --> 01:29:09,047
healthy but i i just i i'll always have an optimistic perspective on things and on the

966
01:29:09,047 --> 01:29:14,807
point of the relationship between China and the United States. I am too grateful that Trump has

967
01:29:14,807 --> 01:29:19,647
assumed power. It wasn't a redo of the Biden administration, because I think there were

968
01:29:19,647 --> 01:29:27,487
very clear signs in that sort of side of the political party that, you know, let's try to

969
01:29:27,487 --> 01:29:33,607
push the buttons. Like Nancy Pelosi flew out to Taiwan. There was a lot of events that, again,

970
01:29:33,627 --> 01:29:37,727
that's why I said the degree of restraint out of China, I don't think really gets appreciated.

971
01:29:39,047 --> 01:29:55,207
But Trump came in and my immediate reaction was, oh, this is not going to be good because if you looked across his headset, Rubio, I mean, you guys in Congress, I mean, China is the most bipartisan issue where there's agreement like we all hate China.

972
01:29:55,567 --> 01:29:56,007
Great.

973
01:29:56,547 --> 01:29:57,367
Like, how's that going to help?

974
01:29:57,947 --> 01:30:03,127
And Trump has been able to keep that whole sort of group in check so far.

975
01:30:03,127 --> 01:30:08,927
So that allows me – that provides me with an enormous amount of comfort.

976
01:30:11,907 --> 01:30:16,167
How it goes forward I think is going to be open to things like the midterms.

977
01:30:16,667 --> 01:30:20,947
I mean China understands, by the way, how the American political system operates.

978
01:30:21,087 --> 01:30:22,927
They learned this the hard way back in 96.

979
01:30:24,067 --> 01:30:28,947
So they're just sitting there saying, look, we're just going to kick the can until November 26.

980
01:30:28,947 --> 01:30:34,567
because in November 26, everybody in the United States turns the brain off. It's Thanksgiving.

981
01:30:34,807 --> 01:30:38,227
They go to the end of the year. Next thing you know, it's January 4th. And what is it?

982
01:30:38,607 --> 01:30:43,547
It's midterms. Everybody's talking about midterms. Everybody's energy is either on

983
01:30:43,547 --> 01:30:49,927
trying to maintain power or trying to reassume power. So the political capital and the ability

984
01:30:49,927 --> 01:30:54,367
to sort of have the bandwidth to deal with China is going to be very minimal. And I think

985
01:30:54,367 --> 01:30:58,747
the next two months are going to be very telling because they've got a lot of wood to chop between

986
01:30:58,747 --> 01:31:06,967
now and call it the middle of November. If there are issues, they'll probably pop up

987
01:31:06,967 --> 01:31:14,707
to one of next year. But like you and like many people on this who are viewing or listening to

988
01:31:14,707 --> 01:31:20,087
this podcast, it's quite possible over that period of time that the United States may have a few

989
01:31:20,087 --> 01:31:24,587
houses that are burning that they need to focus on. China is not going to be the priority.

990
01:31:24,587 --> 01:31:34,107
So the financial situation, as I call it, the United States is absolutely unquestionably fiscally boxed in.

991
01:31:34,727 --> 01:31:35,787
Everybody knows it.

992
01:31:36,647 --> 01:31:38,387
It's the world's worst kept secret.

993
01:31:38,727 --> 01:31:42,727
Nobody talks about it outside of this echo chamber, right?

994
01:31:43,787 --> 01:31:47,047
And how are they going to square the circle?

995
01:31:48,527 --> 01:31:50,407
I just don't see how they're going to be able to do it.

996
01:31:51,047 --> 01:31:53,087
So we'll have to wait and see.

997
01:31:53,087 --> 01:31:59,367
But I think for the time being, I think I'm overly positive that we're not going to go into anything that's going to be overly nasty.

998
01:31:59,667 --> 01:32:02,567
But that could change by the Q1 of next year.

999
01:32:03,867 --> 01:32:09,327
We bring up an interesting point to maybe a controversial thought experiment.

1000
01:32:09,327 --> 01:32:16,167
But is the nature of the U.S. political system, particularly elections, completely hamstring us?

1001
01:32:17,587 --> 01:32:22,587
In terms of being able to actually get stuff done, because people talk about four year cycles, but it's really.

1002
01:32:23,087 --> 01:32:41,175
What we highlighting here two year cycles you have presidential election then two years later you have midterms and many would argue they equally as important And so you have people for the presidential elections a year and a half of bandwidth mental bandwidth talking about and focusing on midterms to your point

1003
01:32:41,774 --> 01:32:49,635
Maybe half that or three quarters of that eight months, eight, nine months, January.

1004
01:32:50,774 --> 01:32:55,194
Right. And again, you can you can see it.

1005
01:32:55,194 --> 01:32:57,154
I mean, look, you're a family man now.

1006
01:32:57,194 --> 01:32:57,995
You've got three kids.

1007
01:32:59,534 --> 01:33:00,975
You and your wife are the same.

1008
01:33:02,235 --> 01:33:08,115
And once Thanksgiving comes, you're mentally going to be checked out until the beginning of January.

1009
01:33:09,015 --> 01:33:10,475
You're going to be family and everything.

1010
01:33:10,635 --> 01:33:13,235
And you are representative of so many people throughout the country.

1011
01:33:14,274 --> 01:33:19,555
So China will use that to its advantage and say, look, OK, we'll just wait for the next guy to come in maybe.

1012
01:33:19,774 --> 01:33:21,274
Or we'll see.

1013
01:33:21,274 --> 01:33:25,294
well and i've learned this through the mining industry too because you have the u.s

1014
01:33:25,294 --> 01:33:28,194
holiday system that rolls right at the chinese new year

1015
01:33:28,194 --> 01:33:35,895
where everything shuts down for a month in china and yep so it's like you have even an even smaller

1016
01:33:35,895 --> 01:33:39,595
window to actually be productive to get stuff done oh god tell me about it

1017
01:33:40,315 --> 01:33:47,454
and that's that's typically when in january through february anywhere yeah anywhere from

1018
01:33:47,454 --> 01:33:49,375
the end of January to early February.

1019
01:33:50,515 --> 01:33:50,694
Yeah.

1020
01:33:52,255 --> 01:33:52,715
It's

1021
01:33:52,715 --> 01:33:54,615
funny.

1022
01:33:55,355 --> 01:33:57,375
We always have to prep for

1023
01:33:57,375 --> 01:33:59,194
Chinese New Year in the mining industry.

1024
01:33:59,414 --> 01:34:00,735
It's like, okay, if you want to get anything done

1025
01:34:00,735 --> 01:34:03,274
with the Chinese counterparts, make sure

1026
01:34:03,274 --> 01:34:05,034
you get it done before the New Year.

1027
01:34:06,855 --> 01:34:07,095
Yeah.

1028
01:34:08,914 --> 01:34:09,495
It's with

1029
01:34:09,495 --> 01:34:09,815
anything.

1030
01:34:09,815 --> 01:34:10,454
It's with anything.

1031
01:34:12,815 --> 01:34:13,294
Well,

1032
01:34:14,235 --> 01:34:15,694
this has been

1033
01:34:15,694 --> 01:34:18,294
incredibly illuminating.

1034
01:34:19,235 --> 01:34:21,175
What final thoughts

1035
01:34:21,175 --> 01:34:24,355
or their words of wisdom,

1036
01:34:24,495 --> 01:34:25,294
advice would you give

1037
01:34:25,294 --> 01:34:26,414
anybody listening to this?

1038
01:34:28,395 --> 01:34:30,274
We do have some policymakers

1039
01:34:30,274 --> 01:34:31,034
to listen to this,

1040
01:34:31,074 --> 01:34:31,595
I'm pretty sure.

1041
01:34:32,434 --> 01:34:32,914
Okay.

1042
01:34:33,635 --> 01:34:34,115
Okay.

1043
01:34:34,755 --> 01:34:35,255
Number one,

1044
01:34:35,715 --> 01:34:37,334
if you have not been to China,

1045
01:34:37,515 --> 01:34:38,715
I implore everybody

1046
01:34:38,715 --> 01:34:40,495
to get on a plane and come out.

1047
01:34:40,675 --> 01:34:41,055
It's actually,

1048
01:34:41,235 --> 01:34:43,135
you don't have to get a visa anymore.

1049
01:34:43,255 --> 01:34:44,194
You can do transit visas.

1050
01:34:44,194 --> 01:34:44,794
As Americans,

1051
01:34:44,954 --> 01:34:45,675
it's pretty easy.

1052
01:34:45,694 --> 01:34:52,375
come and see for yourself um now here may be the more controversial do not go to beijing

1053
01:34:52,375 --> 01:34:58,095
um i would even argue i can't believe i'm saying this don't even come to shanghai if you can land

1054
01:34:58,095 --> 01:35:04,175
in shanghai a day you want to go to shenzhen you want to go to hongzhou and chongqing these cities

1055
01:35:04,175 --> 01:35:10,275
are just i mean this is where the excitement is this is where the energy is you're seeing real

1056
01:35:10,275 --> 01:35:15,215
chinese entrepreneurial spirit people out having a good just people living their daily lives

1057
01:35:15,215 --> 01:35:21,715
get on a plane, come out and spend some time. Every person that I have sort of been with that

1058
01:35:21,715 --> 01:35:26,434
has done this over the last 18 months to the man and to the woman have said to me,

1059
01:35:26,575 --> 01:35:32,175
this is not at all what I expected. And I just really encourage people to do that.

1060
01:35:32,914 --> 01:35:38,914
The other point that I would make to you is whatever you see, and I would implore you to

1061
01:35:38,914 --> 01:35:46,094
be very careful when you go about indulging in certain content that's like, China's going to

1062
01:35:46,094 --> 01:35:54,535
collapse. It could. It very well could. I'm not going to say it can. But again, I've been hearing

1063
01:35:54,535 --> 01:36:00,654
this for two decades. So when you're hearing input from people talking about China, the first

1064
01:36:00,654 --> 01:36:07,555
question you should ask yourself is, has this person ever been to China? The amount of second

1065
01:36:07,555 --> 01:36:13,654
sourcing of information of late is frightening, meaning that people are talking to people who have

1066
01:36:13,654 --> 01:36:18,675
agendas who are then translating it and saying, oh, this meets my confirmed bias. So I'm going to

1067
01:36:18,675 --> 01:36:24,854
put this out there. And then finally, and this one is probably, I don't know, we'll see how it goes.

1068
01:36:25,575 --> 01:36:28,635
Anybody that wants to have a deeper conversation about any of this stuff,

1069
01:36:29,295 --> 01:36:36,694
hit me up on Nostra. I will talk to anybody as open as possible. As I said to you in the email,

1070
01:36:37,414 --> 01:36:38,535
Marty, I'm in Shanghai.

1071
01:36:38,735 --> 01:36:39,475
I'm in China.

1072
01:36:39,635 --> 01:36:40,854
I'm talking about Fenton.

1073
01:36:41,555 --> 01:36:44,095
No one's coming in the door and looking black bag me.

1074
01:36:44,975 --> 01:36:45,235
Right?

1075
01:36:45,834 --> 01:36:50,775
So a lot of the, I have a VPN, as I said, my VPN is from China Telecom.

1076
01:36:51,275 --> 01:36:52,154
They just want the money.

1077
01:36:52,874 --> 01:36:55,295
Like all of these stories that, oh, sorry.

1078
01:36:56,154 --> 01:36:56,995
You got me going.

1079
01:36:57,275 --> 01:36:58,675
There's no social credit score.

1080
01:36:59,675 --> 01:37:00,055
None.

1081
01:37:00,854 --> 01:37:02,354
I'm done with all this stuff.

1082
01:37:02,354 --> 01:37:09,874
so be mindful of the messages you get out and just make sure to question who's saying it what

1083
01:37:09,874 --> 01:37:14,975
agendas they have including myself and i'm glad matt called me out good

1084
01:37:14,975 --> 01:37:25,654
we have we have our next guest jessica jessica i am uh i'm in the middle of recording

1085
01:37:25,654 --> 01:37:27,755
an episode now.

1086
01:37:28,575 --> 01:37:30,154
And I think, are we scheduled for noon,

1087
01:37:30,275 --> 01:37:31,614
I believe? Yeah.

1088
01:37:32,515 --> 01:37:32,775
All right.

1089
01:37:34,995 --> 01:37:39,374
It works.

1090
01:37:39,834 --> 01:37:40,755
We're wrapping up here.

1091
01:37:40,755 --> 01:37:42,635
Nice to meet you, Jessica.

1092
01:37:45,194 --> 01:37:46,075
See you in an hour.

1093
01:37:47,675 --> 01:37:47,795
Bye.

1094
01:37:50,135 --> 01:37:50,334
Bye.

1095
01:37:53,495 --> 01:37:54,814
That's the first time that's happened.

1096
01:37:55,654 --> 01:37:59,675
Oh, that happens to me at work all the time.

1097
01:38:00,715 --> 01:38:04,454
But anyway, so those would be some of the points that I would make.

1098
01:38:04,895 --> 01:38:07,895
But again, yeah, just reach out.

1099
01:38:08,395 --> 01:38:10,395
I, again, love Nostra.

1100
01:38:10,475 --> 01:38:12,454
I'm still shocked that you guys are talking about it.

1101
01:38:13,755 --> 01:38:15,194
I'm like, oh, wow, that's pretty cool.

1102
01:38:16,954 --> 01:38:17,715
Talking about what?

1103
01:38:18,635 --> 01:38:19,675
Talking about me.

1104
01:38:20,035 --> 01:38:21,055
Oh, that you're coming on here?

1105
01:38:21,135 --> 01:38:21,354
Yeah.

1106
01:38:21,354 --> 01:38:23,075
I mean

1107
01:38:23,075 --> 01:38:26,575
I'm not trying to blow smoke up your ass either

1108
01:38:26,575 --> 01:38:29,035
I was really happy that you responded to that newsletter

1109
01:38:29,035 --> 01:38:31,255
and I'll hand up

1110
01:38:31,255 --> 01:38:32,934
I'm probably guilty of

1111
01:38:32,934 --> 01:38:36,675
hearing information about China

1112
01:38:36,675 --> 01:38:38,035
from people with an agenda

1113
01:38:38,035 --> 01:38:40,975
and taking it at face value

1114
01:38:40,975 --> 01:38:41,715
and sharing it

1115
01:38:41,715 --> 01:38:44,275
and I didn't

1116
01:38:44,275 --> 01:38:45,694
because I've fallen for it before

1117
01:38:45,694 --> 01:38:47,314
Peter Zayan

1118
01:38:47,314 --> 01:38:49,295
the whole demographics problem

1119
01:38:49,295 --> 01:38:51,814
another one, Kyle Bass

1120
01:38:51,814 --> 01:38:53,654
Hong Kong

1121
01:38:53,654 --> 01:38:55,854
is going to fail and China

1122
01:38:55,854 --> 01:38:57,874
is going to try to take over

1123
01:38:57,874 --> 01:38:59,295
America. I've definitely

1124
01:38:59,295 --> 01:39:01,895
fallen for those

1125
01:39:01,895 --> 01:39:03,575
theses, but they've been around for

1126
01:39:03,575 --> 01:39:05,795
at least I've been

1127
01:39:05,795 --> 01:39:07,914
paying attention to them from those two individuals for

1128
01:39:07,914 --> 01:39:09,715
the better part of a decade. It's like

1129
01:39:09,715 --> 01:39:11,654
it hasn't come true. It's what's actually happening here.

1130
01:39:12,595 --> 01:39:13,515
So here, just a

1131
01:39:13,515 --> 01:39:15,495
quick editorial note on these guys and

1132
01:39:15,495 --> 01:39:16,495
there's a host of others.

1133
01:39:16,495 --> 01:39:23,035
have the opinion, keep the opinion. That's fine. If you change your points, that should be fine.

1134
01:39:23,715 --> 01:39:30,555
But when you go on traditional media like CNBC or CNN, and you're pitching essentially the same

1135
01:39:30,555 --> 01:39:36,114
storyline that you've been wrong about for 15 years or 10 years, I would think it would be

1136
01:39:36,795 --> 01:39:42,654
in the fiduciary duty, let's say, of the anchor to say, okay, we appreciate this perspective you

1137
01:39:42,654 --> 01:39:48,135
have on China. You've been wrong for a long time. Why should we listen to you now? What's changed?

1138
01:39:49,434 --> 01:39:54,255
And yet, because of the nature of how media is and everything else, I get it. That's me being

1139
01:39:54,255 --> 01:39:59,814
naive. But I think that's more my bigger gripe because these same people are on all the time.

1140
01:40:01,895 --> 01:40:07,654
Yeah. No, we see it. I mean, it's funny. It happens in the Bitcoin space too. There's like a

1141
01:40:07,654 --> 01:40:09,715
a carousel of people.

1142
01:40:10,095 --> 01:40:10,874
Many are good,

1143
01:40:11,454 --> 01:40:12,255
but many are like,

1144
01:40:12,295 --> 01:40:15,735
you've been particularly in the cryptosphere and you've been consistently

1145
01:40:15,735 --> 01:40:19,434
wrong for better part of a decade and you're still getting trotted out and

1146
01:40:19,434 --> 01:40:21,954
unable to shill your,

1147
01:40:22,055 --> 01:40:23,055
your wares to,

1148
01:40:23,175 --> 01:40:23,675
to the,

1149
01:40:23,795 --> 01:40:24,934
to the retail public.

1150
01:40:24,934 --> 01:40:26,675
It's very disheartening.

1151
01:40:26,975 --> 01:40:27,515
And that's why like,

1152
01:40:27,555 --> 01:40:29,775
I love having this podcast and being able to have,

1153
01:40:29,814 --> 01:40:34,314
we just spoke for an hour and 40 minutes and really diving deep into these

1154
01:40:34,314 --> 01:40:34,614
topics.

1155
01:40:34,675 --> 01:40:34,914
And I'm,

1156
01:40:34,934 --> 01:40:35,735
I'm curious about,

1157
01:40:35,854 --> 01:40:37,114
and I will admit I've,

1158
01:40:37,114 --> 01:40:37,454
I've,

1159
01:40:37,654 --> 01:40:42,614
probably spoken out of line on the topic in the past, but do earnestly want to learn and try to

1160
01:40:42,614 --> 01:40:47,755
get to the truth. And I think someone like yourself who's lived in China for 30 years and

1161
01:40:47,755 --> 01:40:53,154
definitely has a better perspective than myself and likely others who haven't, but are speaking

1162
01:40:53,154 --> 01:41:00,314
confidently on the subject is, is important. Right. No. And again, I, as I said, I'm not

1163
01:41:00,314 --> 01:41:05,235
going anywhere and I'm super ecstatic to be able to talk to anybody and be challenged. I mean,

1164
01:41:05,235 --> 01:41:07,135
I don't have all the answers, that's for sure.

1165
01:41:08,654 --> 01:41:10,235
Well, hopefully this is the first of many.

1166
01:41:10,334 --> 01:41:17,874
I'm sure the U.S.-Chinese relationship is not going to be boring anytime soon.

1167
01:41:18,314 --> 01:41:25,654
So as things develop, I'll make sure that our conversation is running behind the scenes.

1168
01:41:25,654 --> 01:41:34,434
And if we feel that it's important to get on air again, have a conversation to update the freaks about what's going on, we should definitely do it.

1169
01:41:35,235 --> 01:41:46,795
Yeah, and I'll be here. And I'll keep doing my China morning missives or whatever I keep calling them. I have a good time with those. And the engagement's been great. I mean, and I am, by the way, Nostra only.

1170
01:41:49,295 --> 01:41:53,975
Yeah, I was looking for you on X. I couldn't find you. So it was very impressive to see that you're Nostra only.

1171
01:41:53,975 --> 01:41:55,314
I haven't

1172
01:41:55,314 --> 01:41:59,595
it's hard when you have the engagement

1173
01:41:59,595 --> 01:42:01,414
but for me it was

1174
01:42:01,414 --> 01:42:03,114
you know look at the end of the day

1175
01:42:03,114 --> 01:42:04,235
I am a

1176
01:42:04,235 --> 01:42:07,374
I'm someone who really doesn't

1177
01:42:07,374 --> 01:42:08,454
like centralized power

1178
01:42:08,454 --> 01:42:11,434
so ironically that I live in China

1179
01:42:11,434 --> 01:42:12,874
but

1180
01:42:12,874 --> 01:42:14,314
that's why I think Noster

1181
01:42:14,314 --> 01:42:16,874
it was so funny I remember in the very beginning

1182
01:42:16,874 --> 01:42:18,334
been on two and a half years saying

1183
01:42:18,334 --> 01:42:21,095
sending a note to Jack

1184
01:42:21,095 --> 01:42:23,614
and I was like I'll tell you two things

1185
01:42:23,975 --> 01:42:29,555
The next election meeting, 2028, it's going to be only two topics, Bitcoin and China.

1186
01:42:31,334 --> 01:42:33,595
And he wrote back and he was like, probably.

1187
01:42:35,095 --> 01:42:36,215
And that's what it was.

1188
01:42:36,795 --> 01:42:37,914
That's what it was.

1189
01:42:38,194 --> 01:42:38,715
And the border.

1190
01:42:39,414 --> 01:42:40,395
The border was a big one.

1191
01:42:40,795 --> 01:42:44,075
But Peter, I know it's getting late where you are.

1192
01:42:44,215 --> 01:42:46,414
Appreciate you spending your Friday night with me.

1193
01:42:46,874 --> 01:42:50,035
I feel very fortunate that you were willing to do that.

1194
01:42:50,035 --> 01:42:52,715
And until next time, I can't wait to do it again.

1195
01:42:53,555 --> 01:42:54,475
Always going to be around, Marty.

1196
01:42:54,535 --> 01:42:55,414
I appreciate the invite.

1197
01:42:55,575 --> 01:42:57,334
And you be well with your family.

1198
01:42:58,535 --> 01:42:59,015
You as well.

1199
01:42:59,235 --> 01:42:59,914
Peace and love, freaks.