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Mark, welcome back to the show.

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Yeah, great to be here. It's been a long time.

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It's been a long time. Almost exactly nine months.

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And a lot has changed since then. Last time you were on this show,

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you were still the independent voice inside Rasmussen.

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And since then, you've started the Honest Poll.

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Things have changed. And I think the story behind your departure

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from Rasmussen and starting the Honest Poll is a good place to start here.

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Yeah, sure. And what's cool, too, is that we were talking last time right after I went to the White House.

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And in that trip, I literally said, like, sir, you're going to lose the midterm elections unless you do this.

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And he didn't do this. And so now it looks like they're going to lose the midterm elections.

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And this was economic populism and visible reform in the government.

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And it's like, yeah, you could do Iran, too, but give the people what they wanted.

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And we're not really getting it. We're literally just getting basically Iran.

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And you can argue about all these other things that Trump's doing.

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And yeah, he's probably he's making progress on a lot of this stuff, but it's leadership and it's about how he's communicating it.

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And he's just like not doing it well.

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So if people aren't familiar with me or with polling, the way it's supposed to work in the way that George Gallup created the industry is that he thought that because of how big the country was and how diverse the people were, when you send elected representatives to D.C., the people don't get represented.

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And so they need an advocate, somebody who measures what the people think and tells the people in D.C. that they're doing it wrong.

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And what really has happened is pretty much everybody in the polling industry has either been co-opted by large left wing media conglomerates or by academia or by dark money leftist NGOs on the left or on the right.

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what happens is a lot of these people will fix the numbers in order to get a paycheck,

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to give large organizations, for instance, like the American Beverage Association,

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the numbers that they need to show, for instance, that Americans do like sugary beverages on snap.

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And obviously, the idea is preposterous. I went into the field and found the exact opposite,

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but I didn't get paid $2 million for that. And so independent means I'm not taking money from

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either side. And I can be political, but I'm trying to do it to represent the American people.

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And Trump's 2024 agenda objectively hid most of what people wanted. And people think they're not

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getting it right now. And so when that, in my opinion, was endangered for the people, what they

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had voted for, I'm going to be very vocal because, hey, we have this huge coalition. Everybody wanted

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these mass deportations. They want a middle-class, wage-focused economy. They don't want ridiculous

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ridiculous nosebleed grocery and house prices stay on that target. And they didn't. And so I

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got very loud and vocal. And long story short, inside Rasmussen, they had made a new friend,

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a couple of friends. There was a polling conglomerate that we built. That polling conglomerate

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has its foot very deeply in the political action committee business on the right.

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And in that business, if you want to check from a Trump-friendly donor or from somebody

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affiliated with the RNC, you can't criticize Trump. It's not good. They don't want that.

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And so I was told that my criticism of Trump was hurting the business. And quite frankly,

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I don't care. I'm here for the people. And so I was silenced for a few months. And so I worked on

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my new business. And so as of two months ago, I left Rasmussen Reports and founded the Honest

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Poll. When I was ready just to put a cherry on top, I went back on Twitter and Carolyn Levitt

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had said something stupid. So I'm like, I forget what it was. So I went out and

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criticize Trump again visibly. And they literally like fired me for criticizing Trump. So that is

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one of the biggest names in independent polling who currently doesn't even have a pollster. And,

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you know, the moolah, I guess, was more important to them. Yeah, it's insane how

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partisan politics can affect every corner of the economy. And I think polling,

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trying to be this sober, nonpartisan vehicle for people to get actual signal is one of the last bastions.

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And so good on you for not caving to the money grab and starting the honest poll.

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What is the plan with the honest poll?

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I mean, literally just what I was doing before.

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We're going to do probably monthly tracking polls to start,

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and there's going to be a lot of good sentiment stuff in there.

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And usually most of these pollsters won't do sentiment work because they don't care

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like what the people think, unless that they're getting a paycheck to misrepresent it.

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Or when they're trying to, you know, what happens on the right a lot is that just like

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a hooker on the street, they try and wear a really short skirt to show that they can

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do some good tricks.

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And so when the Iran strike started, you saw a lot of right wing pollsters come out and

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basically do push poll questions to show that the strike was popular.

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Well if you just ask the question straight up should we strike Iran or not It is not popular It was like 37 but nobody would do that right And that Or Trump wouldn listen to a mainstream media pollster who actually doing the legitimate question He wants to hear

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it from insider advantage. And they'll pad the question with like, hey, Trump's going to take

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out the Ayatollah and get rid of all of Iran's nuclear programs with a wave of magic wand. Do

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you support or oppose? It's like, what do you think people are going to say? But that's not

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helpful. And so I don't know what happened behind closed doors with Trump and the Iran strike. I can

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only conjecture that it was probably people like Lindsey Graham who were very close to him. When I

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went to talk to Trump in November for 45 minutes about how he should win the midterms, he spent 15

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minutes of it talking about Lindsey Graham. So I think he was a very influential character there,

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but he was obviously selectively being shown polling to paint a bad picture like, hey, you'll

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be a hero if you take out the nuclear program. And it's like, yeah, people don't like Iranians

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to have a nuke, yet it ranks number 30 on their list of priorities. And so when you take their

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number one priority and put it on the back burner and then take number 30 and spend the most important

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part of your presidency on it, obviously there's going to be a strong reaction.

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Yeah. And speaking of top priorities that are actually on the minds of American citizens,

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I think it's squarely the economy, inflation, jobs, immigration.

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I mean, that's just reading the Twitter sentiment.

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It seems.

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Well, institutional trust is one that people don't talk about, but was pretty high because

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we got Trump 2024 because of a lot of statist overreach under the Biden administration.

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And we can't forget that our elections are retarded.

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Our federal government doesn't represent the people.

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We're an occupied nation.

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And I think in some fundamental way, people understand that because with questions like, are you more concerned about foreign or domestic terrorism?

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They're more concerned about domestic terrorism.

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72% of America thinks we're living in a police state.

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So it's like, you know, this elite worship, golden age, Dow's 50,000.

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People are going to see through.

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They don't buy that anymore because it's existential now.

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Yeah.

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I mean, you see the big backlash with flock cameras now and the push to ensure that they get widely installed and distributed throughout the country.

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And they're not reliable at all.

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Since we last talked, I think Nick Shirley's investigative journalism and many others.

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Shout out to Steve Robinson, the main wire up in Maine, highlighting the Medicare fraud that is rampant throughout the country.

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and you look at the AI wave too.

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I think that's a very nuanced discussion.

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I'm actually involved in some companies

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helping bring data centers to the United States

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and there is a lot of misinformation around it,

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but the narrative is, it's a strong narrative

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because people say, hey, you have Dario Amodi

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and Sam Altman saying we're going to take all the jobs

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and we're going to become the richest men in the world

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And at the same time, you have the administration pushing forward with that, which I think they should.

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I think the narrative needs to change.

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But then on top of that, like prioritizing Iran, nuking the oil markets headed in the summer.

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Which we haven't even really seen.

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No, it's going to get wild.

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Well, and that's in the other. Just to end on a callback to the last time we talked, you said if Trump doesn't do these things, you're going to see socialism rise in the United States.

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And we've seen Mondawmi and we've seen all these Democratic socialists winning primaries across the country.

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And it seems like Gen Z is stuck between a rock and a hard place and saying, well, we thought Trump was going to be anti-foreign wars and pro-economy, really secure the border.

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and focus on the domestic economy. And that doesn't seem to be where the focus is. And

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therefore, socialism is on the rise here. Yeah. 100%, we're going to see a lot of political

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turmoil. And it's so predictable because the Republican Party not only is incapable of

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understanding the change that's coming, they are directly incentivized not to. And so on the

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Republican Party power is mostly about controlling the allocation of donor bucks. And so if you're

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one of these people high up at a political action committee and you know people who know people,

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or you can get no bid contracts, or you can get Trump a pardon, it's all about selling this access,

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monetizing your position. And so any change to the status quo is dangerous to these people's

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bottom line, right? So if you say to them, like, listen, the young people are not really ideological.

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So if you just pound your chest about capitalism and conservatism, they're just going to ignore you because it's stupid and they know it's failed.

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I've been saying this for probably years now, and it's like that's what they're doing now.

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So it's like they came in on a massive populist wave, a reformed massive populist.

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And let be very clear with a mandate for austerity Like that pretty ridiculous Like people wanted to see the deficit cut That is wild And it like okay you had Doge maybe all of the Republicans in DC didn

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vote for it or want Doge, but you had it. And it was the most popular thing Republicans had ever

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done with under 40 voters. Trump had like a 60% approval rating because of Doge. And Doge could

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have come in and cut a trillion out of the deficit, and it mostly would have been fraud.

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And they got sent packing, and it's because they endangered the Republican status quo in

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Washington, D.C. There were a lot of corporations that were getting these no-bid contracts or

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profiting off of Medicare waste or all of these things. And these people

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own these senators. They own these senators and congressmen. Pharma's got money into everybody.

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APAC's got money into everybody. That's just how it works. And so they would rather lose

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and then draw a perimeter around the parts of the party they want to keep.

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And that's what they're doing right now.

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So and you can see like these people who are probably just apparatchiks for intel or for foreign interests or like just take a Nancy Mace.

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So she seems based when you hear what she talks about.

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But if you follow what she does, she just takes one issue and just pounds on it.

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So during the Biden administration, she was just pounding on the trans issue.

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And it's like, OK, fine. Is that our biggest problem?

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Like, no, but fine. We get it. Right.

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And so now what is she pounding on?

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She's like, well, we all have to hate Muslims.

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They're terrible.

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Let's kill them all.

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Let's get them all out of the country.

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And it's like, for God's sakes, are we really going to regress back to the party of George W. Bush?

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Is that like where the conservative movement that was populist just two years ago?

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Remember, like Dearborn Muslims, like in part voted for Trump and helped him get over the finish line.

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Like, are we going to forget Muslims for Trump?

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And it's like, fine.

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I don't like radical Islam.

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Americans are afraid of radical Islam.

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But are you a constitutional conservative? Because if they're a citizen, they have natural light rights from God. You know what I mean? So like, what are we even doing here? They don't care. They'll talk about conservatism. They're not conservative, conservative. They're like neo-conservative, which is an entirely different thing. And that's what I guess the Republican Party right now is throwing a temper tantrum to force everybody on the Internet as part of this broad coalition.

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like Trump got a lot of under 40 socialist votes. He did. And so now they're saying,

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well, socialists all want to put you into a ditch. And the under 40 socialist Trump voters like,

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like, like, no, I just want to be able to afford food and get a job and you give my job to Indians.

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So that's what's going to happen is like Republicans are trying to lose beautifully

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right now so that they can wrestle control of the party back from essentially not even Trump anymore,

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just the people that gave the Republicans the biggest coalition they've ever had.

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And they're doing it by just this massive circular firing squad.

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You know, I come up on Twitter every day and it's like, oh, look, another podcaster from

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podcast, Kasistan getting money from Qatar.

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It's like, you know, like it's not a winning message.

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It's just.

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Do you want to clear the air here?

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Are you getting money from Qatar?

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No, I'm getting money from no one.

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I have to go out and kill what I eat or eat what I kill right now.

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So, no, you know, and when I'm up and running, most of my money will be coming from people through like subscriptions and YouTube and stuff like that.

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So awesome.

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Well, I mean, to your point about austerity, people welcoming it.

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I was one of those people and I still welcome it.

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And then you juxtapose that with the Treasury's July statement where it had a $334 billion in receipts, $766.3 in outlays and a $432.3 billion deficit.

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National debt is about to cross $40 trillion.

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I think officially, officially now, like on a trailing 12-month basis, interest expense on the debt surpasses health care and defense spending.

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And this is a runaway train that, again, to your point, austerity is what people wanted.

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And I think a lot of Americans intuitively understand that this runaway debt train is having some consequence on the price of goods at the end of the day, combined with the immigration and the H-1B stuff.

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And they're not seeing anything done about it.

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Yeah.

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No, 100%.

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I like high interest rates in a balanced economy where we have a relatively compressed wealth equality curve so people can save money and earn interest and stuff like that.

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But when you have to finance $40 trillion in debt with a 10-year treasury approaching 5% and when we have a repressive housing market because mortgage rates are astronomical, it's like we're not – like there's – like I don't – I mean maybe –

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like there's two ways out of this essentially is hyperinflation or we just like absolutely get

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completely crushed and it's like okay we're going to add another 500 billion to the annual

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deficit to expand defense spending uh one can argue if that's reactive to the iran strike that

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we were woefully unprepared for or whether it's forward looking for when the democrat bolsheviks

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get in charge to expand their expansionist you know NATO war against Russia It like we the pendulum is swinging towards war is what it looks like And we can all throw temper tantrums but right now we don control the government

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and that's what the government seems to want. People seem to agree that re-industrialization

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is better for America. Well, that's a good way to get it. Our debt burden is too high. Well,

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That's a good way to get it. You know, they have been sort of like improving the ability of the government to call up the draft.

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So, you know, like we did changes to the draft over a year before Pearl Harbor was bombed.

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So we saw World War Two coming and we're preparing for it, essentially.

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And I don't know, like I don't want to be conspiratorial, but I look at the way that NATO people have been talking about.

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And here's the other thing. Like, does NATO even stand for anything anymore? Who knows? So a lot of change coming.

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Not only that, but bringing the AI subject back into this, I mean, it is pretty clear that the Trump administration has made it a matter of national security and really pitted the United States versus China.

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You have this frontier closed-source model in the United States.

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You have that race, and then you have the open-weight model out of China in that race.

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And it seems pretty clear that the scene is being set for a confrontation with China over AI, among other things.

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That won't be good.

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I mean, there are nuclear power with ICBM capability.

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And we're a lot less better off than we were a year ago to actually engage with them.

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And I think we've just learned that our entire military doctrine doesn't really work, right?

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Like in this new environment, we've put a lot of money and thought and time into building these massive platforms that are very difficult to defend from low-cost munitions that China is very well equipped to manufacture a bunch of, and we are not.

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Yeah, we've fully transitioned into the age of the sovereign individual where the leverage on power has completely shifted towards those low-cost munitions, particularly drone warfare.

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I don't think the American public is aware of just how drastically modern warfare has shifted in the last two years with drones specifically.

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Yeah.

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Listen, America is hard to invade.

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But if I was forced to pick which amphibious vehicle to be on as part of an amphibious landing, I would probably prefer to be on a Chinese landing ship going after America and not vice versa.

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But you know what I mean?

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I'm just saying, like, just based on the strategic forethought and the I mean, they're going to like, how can I mean, they're part of the reason I ran is doing well.

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Are they not like this is the.

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They've been preparing for war against America for a long time, and they're using real-time satellite intel, and they're sharing targets, and they're probably sharing technology as well.

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And we just give ours to everybody else.

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Yeah.

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Well, talking about midterms, what is the state of these races across the country right now?

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How's it looking?

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So I would say the bookends right now for the national House popular vote.

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The last time I did the generic ballot was like really right after they got that deal with Iran and right around July 4th.

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So I think it was a high.

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It was Democrat plus four.

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I think a case could be made back then.

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It should have probably been about Democrat plus six.

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And then if you look at like Rich Barris and Emerson, and I'll be doing another one soon.

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If you look at good pollsters like Rich Barris and Emerson, they have something more like Democrat plus 10 or plus 11.

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And so those are, I think, the bookends.

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And if you compare it to other races like 2018, it's kind of similar.

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Now, maybe the race will tighten or maybe it's not, and we can talk about cases of why that might happen.

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But this feels very similar to like a 2006 where he had a second-term Republican president mired in an unpopular war.

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And a case could be made that this war is less popular than 2003 was.

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Now, obviously, everybody hated Bush by 2008, but they asked for that war.

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They wanted that war.

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America wanted that war, and they did not want this one.

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So it's like you layer that on top of just the historical trend that Democrats should pick up both houses looking at 70%, 80% of the last races where the opposite party was in power.

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It looks like a pretty good chance at a Democrat house pickup, and the betting markets agree at about 85% Dem pickup.

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So now there's a lot of stuff, again, a lot of things that could happen. There are positive or

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negative exogenous shocks. We can have the best economic numbers we've ever seen over the next

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two or three months. I think that's an uphill fight. Like, I don't think that's going to happen.

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Like people would need to feel the economy getting better. It's not going to happen. We would need

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the biggest like 40 chess, big brain exit from Iran. I don't think that's going to happen. You could

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Say, all right, well, maybe Iran strikes America.

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I don't think they're stupid enough to do that.

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Maybe there's a false flag or a Gulf of Tonkin incident.

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Like maybe, maybe the Democrats do something like stupid, but I don't think they're going

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to.

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And so I also, everybody says, oh, look, the RNC is out raising the DNC.

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And it's like, okay, but you guys forget they put most of their money through Act Blue.

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So they're going to have a huge war chest.

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So it's like the best case scenario, I think, for Republicans is because of these changes to the electoral map is that these seats are more entrenched than they usually are and that they could limit any loss and maybe eke out a slight majority.

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I think that's probably the best reasonable case scenario.

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The worst case scenario is like a 2006 where the Republicans lose like 30 seats.

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And it could be worse than that by the time we get there, because as you and I both know, this Iran thing is only getting worse.

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And Iran has every incentive to make it worse between now and November.

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Because not only does Trump have an election, but PP Netanyahu has an election.

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You better believe they want that guy gone.

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So and then on the Senate, you know, it's like I care.

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Everybody's going to focus on these Senate races.

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And at the end of the day, the Republicans don't even have the Senate now.

255
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So it's like, why are we even talking about this?

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Right.

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You know, OK, maybe they eke out a one seat majority, but they're not going to get any

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legislation through in the 120th Congress.

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So like Trump's time as a influential leader of America is on the decline.

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I think by November it'll be like, OK, it's not as worse.

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It's not as bad as it could have been.

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Maybe we wish we had done better, but Trump's done.

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Like his political capital will be over.

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Democrats will have Congress and will probably be picking apart his administration with show

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trials over the egregious things that are happening, pardon sales and antitrust and

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no bid contracts.

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They have a lot of that.

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They've been preparing for this.

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They've been watching the Trump administration very closely.

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And it's like if you go work in the Trump administration, you have to know that the Democrats will come after you and the Republicans are not coming after the Democrats.

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So weird things that you would expect to – like you would expect to see at this point in Trump's term more turnover, people leaving, people burned out, new people coming in.

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And they're not. And I cynically conjecture that it's like, OK, they have to stick around for the pardons like it. It might get that bad. So it's like we started the conversation. It's going to get wild. I just I like I don't. People can call me a doomer, but I don't see any like what is going to motivate this broad coalition of people that Trump built because the Republican like Mitt Romney voter is not big enough to compete with your Democrats.

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Democrat electorate now, who obviously a lot of it is just ballot harvested mail-in ballots, obviously.

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But again, we didn't go after that.

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And they turn out.

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They will turn out 70, 80, 90 percent of their presidential turnout.

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Republicans will get a much smaller number, as we've seen in all these special elections.

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Yeah, it's – it seems like they've been too slow to act on this.

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I mean, I think there was clips going around the CNN polling guy or their election night analysts.

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And he was exacerbated because I think he realized at real time that there was like mail in ballot harvesting going on.

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We saw the California Merrill or the Los Angeles Merrill race with Spencer Pratt.

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Seems like he's posturing that maybe there is some legal action in motion.

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But then you have things like the Maha mandate that the Trump administration had.

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Like they did do the reduced vaccine schedule thing last week, which I was very happy to see.

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But again, and who knows, like you always hear that it's really hard to get things done in D.C.

286
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and it moves very slow.

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But I think considering everything you just said, like moving slow is not an option if you want to secure the House.

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This was a tenuous toehold that the Trump MAGA coalition had over American politics.

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It should have been – they treated it – I'm trying to use an analogy.

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They treated it like a marriage with the American people when in reality it was just a first date.

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The people didn't even really want that much.

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They just needed it.

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They're like, oh, my friend guilted me into this or whatever.

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It's like, oh, I had a really bad date with Biden, so I'll try this other guy.

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And it's been a bad first date.

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And it's like we America, again, is making votes of existential need in 2024.

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Not the same thing as 2016.

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2016 is like, oh, I'm sick of this retarded two party politics.

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It doesn't serve us.

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Let's just try an outsider and see what happens.

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Like that was 2016 because they didn't like Hillary Clinton was just more of the same.

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Right.

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2024 is dear God.

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We need somebody to fix it.

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And all we have is Donald Trump.

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Get in there and fix it.

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And so I don want to set the bar Again a lot of this is about messaging Yes he can come in and snap his fingers and deport 10 million people But it is a again a wartime economic and political wartime

308
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And a wartime leader is very different than a peacetime leader.

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A wartime leader has to come in and have like laser focused strategic vision on who the enemy is, what the battlefield is and how that battle is being fought.

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and Trump has just objectively not been doing that. Oh, I love the Dow's at 50,000. We're in

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a golden age. Don't talk to me about affordability. We need 600,000 Chinese visas.

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And what's wrong with the H1Bs? We don't have American talent here. Just like stuff like that,

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50 year mortgages. And it's like, we're going to like destroy a civilization tonight. And it's like,

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all of this is just, and like, maybe like, I don't think he's the same Trump as 2016. I think

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2016, Trump would have been like, you know, he was a little bit better at his Twitter game back.

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He was a king of Twitter.

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Like he understood interaction with people and the feedback loop.

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And this is just like slop.

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And it's like, again, you can't go on your first date and just like without slop like that.

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You know, it's like that's and that's what it is.

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And America is reacting exactly like you'd expect.

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And the polling shows it.

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I mean, we had 50 percent.

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We asked the question, has Trump kept his promises more or less than recent presidents?

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And only 33 percent said more.

326
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50 percent said less.

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So that's a pretty resounding defeat there.

328
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But do I have that right?

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50 percent less, 33 percent more.

330
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So only one in three Americans are like, yep, Trump has fulfilled his promises.

331
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And again, obviously, you can't fix it all.

332
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But it's like how you talk about our problems and how you frame everything.

333
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And we could have done Iran with no problems if we had been like focused on increasing wages, talking about reducing legal and illegal immigration as a means to increase job availability.

334
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And this is why I love what Tucker is doing.

335
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So like in retrospect, it would seem that a lot of the things that Trump ran on didn't really have a moral core.

336
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So for instance, why are we going to mass deport everybody?

337
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Is it because we're racist or is it because of rule of law or fairness or is it because we're putting American workers first?

338
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Like what's the moral or the value behind why we have this policy?

339
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And the voters said, well, Trump wants to deport everybody because he cares about us and he wants us to have jobs and wages.

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And then when Trump comes out and says, well, some of these illegals work pretty hard, everybody is like, well, wait, there's a disconnect.

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Like he did this for a different reason than we thought.

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And then what you're left with is he probably just said it to get elected.

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And so, I mean, look, again, his numbers might come up a little bit.

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Republicans might perform better than people expect, but they've been underperforming the polling in every race, including the primaries.

345
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The turnout for Republicans is super low.

346
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It's off the charts for Democrats.

347
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So the most likely scenario is a pretty big loss.

348
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And, you know, people like us have been screaming about this for over a year now.

349
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And there's been no change.

350
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Yeah.

351
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And I think you've been beating the drum on X and other platforms, too, about how they can fix the narrative.

352
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I think you just said it with the moral case for immigration policy specifically.

353
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But other things I think you've been passionate about are like fair capitalism, square deal now.

354
00:29:34,488 --> 00:29:35,668
Like, what does that look like?

355
00:29:35,708 --> 00:29:39,648
What do you think the American people want on the economic side?

356
00:29:39,748 --> 00:29:42,588
What would a platform that could win actually sound like?

357
00:29:42,588 --> 00:29:56,148
They want a champion who will make America more fair. And so we can talk about the American dream and what that means. But one of the biggest questions I've been tracking is that only 35% of Americans say today's children will be better off than their parents.

358
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So this aspect of opportunity and upward mobility is really what America has offered, and it's gone.

359
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It's objectively gone for most people, especially young people, and everybody knows it.

360
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And at the same time, you have this frustration and anger at the system.

361
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72% of Americans are angry at the level of waste, fraud, and abuse.

362
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Over 70% think politicians are profiting ill-gotten gains from their positions.

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And then what nobody talks about is you also have a very, very anti-corporate view where over 80% think that big tech needs to be reined in because of their excess, stuff like that.

364
00:30:37,528 --> 00:30:43,508
And the under-40 voters specifically, even though – and again, people say, oh, socialism is popular.

365
00:30:43,688 --> 00:30:50,168
Well, socialism is becoming more popular and socialism wins with under-40 voters now, but it's still not popular.

366
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It's still only in the 40s.

367
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and everybody acknowledges that we do have a capitalistic system. So I think they want

368
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capitalism to work, but it's like under both parties, it clearly doesn't. And there's this

369
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aspect of oligarchy. Now people don't know what an oligarchy is, but I think what we're seeing is

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just subtextually they understand they getting screwed by the system And those questions have strong majorities Like it was a 65 67 something like that Percent of the under 40 voters think that the economy is unfair to young people and only like 20 30 disagree So it

371
00:31:23,144 --> 00:31:29,424
over two to one, right? So these are very strong majorities. And again, they overwhelmingly

372
00:31:29,424 --> 00:31:34,644
support socialistic policies, like nationalizing major industries. That's like a three out of four

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00:31:34,644 --> 00:31:43,704
position for under 40 Trump voters. And excess wealth confiscation, that's almost 60% position

374
00:31:43,704 --> 00:31:50,844
of under 40 Trump voters. So you look at this, what we really have is this boomer capitalism,

375
00:31:51,764 --> 00:31:58,924
Reaganomics, trickle down, let's cut the capital gains tax and let's cut corporate taxes,

376
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is, and maybe you'll get some scraps. And the problem is that this plutocracy, this oligarchy

377
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has become so entrenched on both parties that Americans aren't feeling that. They're not getting

378
00:32:10,404 --> 00:32:15,244
that anymore. With the inflation, they're just absolutely getting crushed in this K-shaped

379
00:32:15,244 --> 00:32:20,544
economy. And they'll selectively pick a good economic number without looking at the fact that

380
00:32:20,544 --> 00:32:26,064
consumer confidence is like the lowest it's been in decades. Because nobody wants to address the

381
00:32:26,064 --> 00:32:29,924
fact that the system is failing people and the people are screaming that the system is failing

382
00:32:29,924 --> 00:32:34,744
them. And so again, I think like the, none of what we're dealing with is new. I mean,

383
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they had the Gilded Age, they had a big problem with monopolies in the late 1800s.

384
00:32:39,384 --> 00:32:45,264
And then you had people like Teddy Roosevelt come in with very progressive economic policies.

385
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He was a capitalist. He wasn't a socialist, but he wanted capitalism to work for everybody.

386
00:32:50,504 --> 00:32:55,104
And so he would go after these businesses and break up these monopolies and call them out.

387
00:32:55,104 --> 00:32:58,584
And Trump invites him over to Mar Lago to wine and dine.

388
00:32:58,884 --> 00:33:00,484
Like Zuckerberg stole your election, bro.

389
00:33:00,644 --> 00:33:05,204
And the first thing you did after you got inaugurated was invite him over to your house and wine and dine him.

390
00:33:05,844 --> 00:33:08,364
Like what are the American people even supposed to do with that?

391
00:33:08,404 --> 00:33:09,724
Because they knew Zuckerberg.

392
00:33:09,804 --> 00:33:10,784
They didn't like Zuckerberg.

393
00:33:10,864 --> 00:33:13,084
It was like almost 80 to 20.

394
00:33:13,284 --> 00:33:17,544
They were against Zuckerberg specifically putting money into elections.

395
00:33:18,364 --> 00:33:22,804
So, you know, I've heard Trump talk about how he wants to be on Mount Rushmore.

396
00:33:22,804 --> 00:33:24,844
But Teddy Roosevelt is there for a reason.

397
00:33:24,844 --> 00:33:28,344
this because he acknowledged that there was a problem that the American people were suffering.

398
00:33:28,724 --> 00:33:34,104
And it was only just because the system wasn't fair to them. And he tried to make it more fair

399
00:33:34,104 --> 00:33:39,844
to them. And part of the stuff he did, part of the stuff that FDR did, obviously World War II and us

400
00:33:39,844 --> 00:33:47,024
being again, becoming a major industrial player, like obviously that had a part to do with it.

401
00:33:47,264 --> 00:33:52,104
But most conservatives will remember the 50s, 60s, and 70s fondly, especially for the like

402
00:33:52,104 --> 00:33:57,704
ability for a single income janitor to have a house and five kids, right? And live a comfortable

403
00:33:57,704 --> 00:34:04,704
life. But it's like, you can't forget that we had like a 90% upper income tax bracket.

404
00:34:05,024 --> 00:34:10,404
You know what I mean? Like we were confiscating wealth from billionaires then when we were

405
00:34:10,404 --> 00:34:17,744
supporting unions and had very pro worker policies. And our system is now incapable of that. Like we

406
00:34:17,744 --> 00:34:19,504
had a chance. We can't do it.

407
00:34:19,724 --> 00:34:21,684
And so somebody's going to. And I hope it's JD.

408
00:34:21,844 --> 00:34:23,644
He talks like that. But whoever

409
00:34:23,644 --> 00:34:25,584
does this is going to be going up against

410
00:34:25,584 --> 00:34:27,524
just the absolute... I mean, we're

411
00:34:27,524 --> 00:34:29,004
pretty close to this

412
00:34:29,004 --> 00:34:31,564
state corporate fascism.

413
00:34:31,684 --> 00:34:32,764
We're getting there. It's there.

414
00:34:33,604 --> 00:34:35,724
You said oligarchy. It's like corporate

415
00:34:35,724 --> 00:34:36,604
socialism.

416
00:34:37,404 --> 00:34:39,624
You have the Trump administration taking equity

417
00:34:39,624 --> 00:34:41,844
stakes in a bunch of these companies

418
00:34:41,844 --> 00:34:44,024
and people like rah-rah, re-industrialization

419
00:34:44,024 --> 00:34:45,084
support. It's like, no.

420
00:34:45,084 --> 00:34:53,704
Like this is – I mean that's how Mussolini defied fascism was the combination of corporate and state power working tightly together.

421
00:34:54,044 --> 00:35:01,524
And I don't think Trump is a – like I think the idea that Trump is a fascist is like a weak meme.

422
00:35:01,644 --> 00:35:10,664
I just think the system is set up and has sort of embedded – like I tweeted this out the other day because people were complaining.

423
00:35:10,664 --> 00:35:17,024
there was some socialists like he sent a tweet out of a headline about health care like 95 percent

424
00:35:17,024 --> 00:35:23,084
of american males don't go to the doctor um more than once every five years because it's too

425
00:35:23,084 --> 00:35:27,644
expensive he's like what stage of capitalism is this it's like that's not capitalism that is

426
00:35:27,644 --> 00:35:33,864
corporate fascism where health care is the most heavily subsidized industry in the country and

427
00:35:33,864 --> 00:35:39,844
it's expensive because it has socialist tendencies and there's this complete misunderstanding of

428
00:35:39,844 --> 00:35:49,184
The fact that we don't live in a capitalist society and haven't for a while, there are capitalist sort of variables and aspects of the economy that we live in.

429
00:35:49,324 --> 00:35:50,464
You can go spin up an LLC.

430
00:35:50,744 --> 00:35:51,264
You have an idea.

431
00:35:51,364 --> 00:35:51,824
You start a business.

432
00:35:51,944 --> 00:35:52,364
You can do that.

433
00:35:52,424 --> 00:35:59,564
But once you get to economies of scale, like the bailout culture and the favoritism that exists is very socialist.

434
00:35:59,964 --> 00:36:03,424
And it's very clear to me, but the American public doesn't understand this.

435
00:36:04,964 --> 00:36:09,284
We need people that are really pushing the edge of thought in D.C.

436
00:36:09,284 --> 00:36:12,884
And unfortunately, like I said, all the money goes towards maintaining the status quo.

437
00:36:13,164 --> 00:36:16,044
Like, for instance, I don't think we should have publicly traded equities.

438
00:36:16,184 --> 00:36:17,104
I just don't.

439
00:36:17,124 --> 00:36:17,864
I think it's very bad.

440
00:36:17,924 --> 00:36:18,924
It's very short-sighted.

441
00:36:18,984 --> 00:36:33,180
It drives a lot of risk like you know risk behavior It incentivizes corporations to do really stupid things like the whole cracker barrel redesign they did was you know financialization essentially they need

442
00:36:33,180 --> 00:36:38,140
they wanted to borrow a bunch of money and, uh, and one of the, they like destroyed the business.

443
00:36:38,140 --> 00:36:42,720
Right. And it's like, okay, well, if that was a privately held company with people who had a

444
00:36:42,720 --> 00:36:46,940
long-term view, they wouldn't have completely destroyed their brand image and piss off all

445
00:36:46,940 --> 00:36:50,760
their customers like that. And I think that happens in financial services. I think it happens in

446
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:56,060
Like literally every industry, they're basically got to get that stock bump like this quarter.

447
00:36:56,660 --> 00:36:59,260
We're probably past that now because everybody's stock just goes up.

448
00:37:00,500 --> 00:37:05,300
But like we have this disgusting melange of all this stuff, corporate socialism, socialized losses.

449
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:06,620
There is some fascism.

450
00:37:06,860 --> 00:37:10,060
Like, you know, people like you said, people call Trump a fascist.

451
00:37:10,060 --> 00:37:10,600
It's lazy.

452
00:37:10,940 --> 00:37:18,180
But like, let's not forget that under Trump, we shut down all the small businesses in America and then worshiped Walmart.

453
00:37:18,420 --> 00:37:19,260
Like what?

454
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:20,240
Right.

455
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:22,060
And that was very brutal.

456
00:37:22,260 --> 00:37:24,700
Like a lot of people lost their jobs from small employers.

457
00:37:25,220 --> 00:37:26,400
It was a tough time.

458
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:36,560
And objectively, because of all the asset money that got put into the industry, those big corporations all did much, much, much better.

459
00:37:37,180 --> 00:37:40,680
And we've continued to see wage stagnation since then.

460
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:44,720
And obviously, the foreign-born worker population did a lot better post-COVID.

461
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:52,360
So it's just – it's our enemy, and nobody is willing to call that out because they need the donor bucks.

462
00:37:52,580 --> 00:37:54,580
Even on the Democrat side, they love big corporations.

463
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:56,500
Yeah, it's disgusting.

464
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:05,040
I mean you were talking about like 1950s, 60s America, and that's another meme that's emerged over the years.

465
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:12,240
But I think it reemerged over the last week, which is wages priced in gold for 1950s minimum wage workers.

466
00:38:12,240 --> 00:38:17,320
and they're making more than like a middle-class American today in purchasing power.

467
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:18,500
Yeah.

468
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:21,540
But we all know this is the case though.

469
00:38:21,540 --> 00:38:24,280
It's because the people still live in our communities.

470
00:38:24,620 --> 00:38:31,220
Like you could like drop out of high school and get a salaried job as a janitor with benefits

471
00:38:31,220 --> 00:38:37,840
and then retire and live in the same town with a house and like a single income.

472
00:38:38,060 --> 00:38:38,900
Like it was possible.

473
00:38:39,020 --> 00:38:39,740
Like people did that.

474
00:38:39,740 --> 00:38:52,760
And now it's like, okay, well, you're going to be cleaning houses as a gig worker competing with illegals and barely being able to afford rent in a single bedroom apartment, and you certainly don't have healthcare.

475
00:38:55,100 --> 00:38:56,280
That's the same person.

476
00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:04,960
And I mean, the last time you were on, too, you welcome the idea of a controlled demolition of the housing market.

477
00:39:05,300 --> 00:39:11,280
And I don't think a manufacturer controlled demolition is the way things went.

478
00:39:11,340 --> 00:39:17,480
But if you look at the divergence between houses that are for sale and houses that are being bought right now, it's the largest ever.

479
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:26,500
And so you do have this situation where I think boomers or many who have houses right now are trying to sell, and they simply can't because interest rates and the prices are still high.

480
00:39:26,660 --> 00:39:33,040
So nine months after our last discussion, it seems like something has to come to a head there because that divergence can't persist forever.

481
00:39:33,300 --> 00:39:36,540
It's like prices either have to come down or you have to lower the interest rates drastically.

482
00:39:36,540 --> 00:39:49,920
I personally think recessions are healthy. And it's like when we have a deflationary birth rate, then the idea that our economy is going to continue to be inflationary is kind of retarded.

483
00:39:50,420 --> 00:40:00,200
It's not going to go up 5% every year when we are producing less people. I mean, productivity only takes it so far, right? I'm pretty sure our productivity has been flat for 10 years or whatever.

484
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:08,240
AIs, I don't think, making it better, right? And so it's like the corporate press who wants

485
00:40:08,240 --> 00:40:16,560
stocks and the line to go up use recession as a dangerous boogeyman, bad word. And so it justifies

486
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:21,020
bipartisan rescue bills to prevent recession or to recover from recession. And all of that is

487
00:40:21,020 --> 00:40:27,440
socialistic spending and transfer payments. It's all socialism. And it's like probably at this

488
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,460
point, the most dangerous thing is if we don't have a recession and people might scratch their

489
00:40:31,460 --> 00:40:36,100
heads, but it's like, again, the specter of not being able to service our own debt

490
00:40:36,100 --> 00:40:43,180
and losing reserve status, currency status as the dollar, right? Like these are existential

491
00:40:43,180 --> 00:40:49,100
problems that will turn us into the Weimar Republic. And again, I'm not an economist,

492
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,880
but like, where are these conversations? Like, why are people not talking about this?

493
00:40:53,180 --> 00:40:55,920
They're only, they're only having a Bitcoin podcast, unfortunately.

494
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,860
Yeah, I'm old enough to remember when capitalists used to talk about things like creative destruction.

495
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:01,640
You know what I mean?

496
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,060
And it's like, no, we can't – like those corporate loans, they can't go bust.

497
00:41:05,260 --> 00:41:13,500
Well, it's because they're like leveraged 50x and buried in all these like off-balance sheet complex securitized products and crap like that.

498
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,820
And the whole thing is going to come tumbling down like a house of cards.

499
00:41:15,820 --> 00:41:23,440
I guarantee you, if you just go ask Grok, is our global financial system more leveraged

500
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:29,940
and at bigger risk of a systemic financial collapse than in 2007 or not? It'll probably

501
00:41:29,940 --> 00:41:34,840
say yes. You know what I mean? These problems have not gone away. They've gotten worse

502
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:39,960
because now our entire stock market's like 10 companies, right? And it's like every

503
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:41,137
but he's leveraged to the hilt.

504
00:41:41,517 --> 00:41:43,497
And it's all been like a rent-seeking grift.

505
00:41:43,557 --> 00:41:44,317
And that's not capitalism.

506
00:41:44,317 --> 00:41:47,677
Like you said, capitalism is a doctor in your town

507
00:41:47,677 --> 00:41:49,357
that comes to your house and you pay him cash.

508
00:41:50,037 --> 00:41:51,517
And he renders services.

509
00:41:51,917 --> 00:41:52,837
That's capitalism.

510
00:41:53,277 --> 00:41:57,937
Not like a private equity-backed roll-up of chain store,

511
00:41:58,617 --> 00:42:01,217
like urgent care centers

512
00:42:01,217 --> 00:42:02,857
because you can't afford a real doctor.

513
00:42:03,097 --> 00:42:03,917
Like that's not capitalism.

514
00:42:04,637 --> 00:42:04,897
No.

515
00:42:05,637 --> 00:42:09,377
And it's scary.

516
00:42:09,377 --> 00:42:15,757
because you mentioned like midterms like the house could go to democrats likely will go to

517
00:42:15,757 --> 00:42:22,237
democrats and then they'll start the the trial shows and that's the most frustrating thing about

518
00:42:22,237 --> 00:42:26,957
the the fumble that has been the trump administration as it pertains to domestic

519
00:42:26,957 --> 00:42:33,097
economic and immigration policy is i do not want to see this happen i wish we could be

520
00:42:33,097 --> 00:42:40,857
focusing on the things i just mentioned but if we're just being objective it like we see we saw

521
00:42:40,857 --> 00:42:45,257
it in the bitcoin and crypto industry like the meme coin stuff it's like why are you doing this

522
00:42:45,257 --> 00:42:49,257
you had a mandate to clean things up and out of the gate the night of the inauguration you're

523
00:42:49,257 --> 00:42:53,337
launching a meme coin like what the is going on are you aware of what went on in antitrust

524
00:42:54,217 --> 00:43:01,017
no oh wait till i tell you this one so again looking back and listen i was personally a trump

525
00:43:01,017 --> 00:43:06,217
guy. Like I spent hours trying to get this retard elected, you know, back on the Donald and again,

526
00:43:06,217 --> 00:43:10,197
because he objectively was an outsider with the right policies. And I wanted to see that work.

527
00:43:10,317 --> 00:43:16,097
Right. And he left me, not vice versa. And I'm allowed to have personal biases because I don't

528
00:43:16,097 --> 00:43:20,757
pretend that pollsters shouldn't have them. I just try and separate my numbers from them. Right. And

529
00:43:20,757 --> 00:43:27,317
I think my track record speed for itself. In the first Trump administration, it was like, okay,

530
00:43:27,317 --> 00:43:31,857
we know he's not a Russian asset. Like, what are you doing guys? Come on, Hillary. There's,

531
00:43:31,997 --> 00:43:36,037
this is hubris. Right. And then I was like, okay, well, the Zelensky call. And it's like, okay,

532
00:43:36,037 --> 00:43:42,477
now this is really retarded. Like you're showing us Democrats are insane and this isn't helping

533
00:43:42,477 --> 00:43:47,777
things. And I guess it got them their ends of like handicapping the Trump administration somewhat,

534
00:43:47,777 --> 00:43:53,237
but his approval rating was pretty high when they were impeaching him for the Ukrainian call.

535
00:43:53,237 --> 00:44:00,537
So and then when they went after him criminally, his that's what sealed him as the Republican nominee for 2024.

536
00:44:00,537 --> 00:44:12,977
Like it made him more popular. Right. So even if they're not sane, they could learn from their past excesses and moderate and not be like crazy.

537
00:44:12,977 --> 00:44:22,877
Like that is something that Democrats really could do. Now, right now, what they're doing is stealing primary elections away from socialists so that they can continue to have an establishment.

538
00:44:22,877 --> 00:44:29,237
an APAC person in. That's what's happening right now. So that's kind of insane. But when they come

539
00:44:29,237 --> 00:44:34,337
out, and probably it'll be next month in September. I know Ro Khanna has been working a lot on this.

540
00:44:34,457 --> 00:44:39,737
I know other Democrat offices have been putting these cases together. There's real stuff here.

541
00:44:40,217 --> 00:44:47,577
We all see the smoke. There is fire. And one of the most egregious ones is what happened in

542
00:44:47,577 --> 00:44:52,857
antitrust. And it's like, okay, I can't point to you the exact UCC code that makes this a federal

543
00:44:52,857 --> 00:45:00,117
offense, but it looks egregiously bad. So the antitrust person, and we actually had a pretty

544
00:45:00,117 --> 00:45:04,677
good one under Biden, but we got a new one, Gail Slater. I know her. She's a really nice lady.

545
00:45:05,077 --> 00:45:08,817
And she also cares about the American people and said, okay, in this job, I'm going to put the

546
00:45:08,817 --> 00:45:13,377
American people first. Corporations have too much power. And so we're going to do what antitrust is

547
00:45:13,377 --> 00:45:16,377
supposed to do, which is break up monopolies and sue the hell out of these companies.

548
00:45:16,377 --> 00:45:18,097
and they started these lawsuits.

549
00:45:18,417 --> 00:45:23,237
And one of the lawsuits they went after was to prevent Live Nation from buying up new,

550
00:45:23,237 --> 00:45:25,457
you know, ticket master venues or whatever.

551
00:45:25,577 --> 00:45:25,777
Right.

552
00:45:26,677 --> 00:45:32,017
And so this is like a real circumstance where people go to concerts and they have to pay

553
00:45:32,017 --> 00:45:33,097
200 bucks for a ticket.

554
00:45:33,097 --> 00:45:35,097
And it's literally because there's a monopoly.

555
00:45:35,097 --> 00:45:37,857
It would be very popular if they broke this up.

556
00:45:38,977 --> 00:45:40,757
And they were going to.

557
00:45:41,337 --> 00:45:45,837
And because it was egregious again, and it would have been a very popular win.

558
00:45:46,377 --> 00:45:55,577
so Mike Davis allegedly gets hired as a lobbyist for live nation gets paid 300,000 a month as a

559
00:45:55,577 --> 00:46:00,817
retainer gets a $1 million success fee. There's video documentation on this already on YouTube,

560
00:46:00,817 --> 00:46:06,657
but I assume that it's going to be in like ads and stuff and gets her fired. And not only gets

561
00:46:06,657 --> 00:46:12,357
her fired, gets like her office raided by police within the DOJ. And there were other cases too,

562
00:46:12,357 --> 00:46:18,597
that just, there was like a Hewlett Packard acquisition. They, they sued to stop it.

563
00:46:19,197 --> 00:46:22,917
And they immediately like just got overturned because like Kellyanne Conway was taking a

564
00:46:22,917 --> 00:46:27,977
million dollars. Like it, like this is just what happens. The Republican lobbyist takes a big check

565
00:46:27,977 --> 00:46:33,797
and goes and screws over the American people behind closed doors. It's literally the exact

566
00:46:33,797 --> 00:46:40,337
same like guy with a monocle in a smoke filled cigar room, right out of the political cartoons

567
00:46:40,337 --> 00:46:41,137
of 1905.

568
00:46:41,297 --> 00:46:43,477
Like, that's exactly what's happening in the Trump administration.

569
00:46:44,377 --> 00:47:01,833
So you know at the end of the day I would have loved for the Trump administration to hold the people who violated law in the Biden administration criminally accountable or at the very least fire them Like where was the frog march of the people out of the FBI who spied on all those moms in the school boards

570
00:47:02,813 --> 00:47:07,013
Like, we never saw one. Maybe it happened or not, but it's like, if you don't see it,

571
00:47:07,013 --> 00:47:12,173
it didn't happen. You don't get credit for it. And so Trump has held nobody accountable.

572
00:47:12,173 --> 00:47:23,473
And I guess if the Democrats are going to come back in office and hold criminals accountable, like this time around, I'm not going to pretend that it's some affront to democracy.

573
00:47:23,973 --> 00:47:24,893
You know what I mean?

574
00:47:24,893 --> 00:47:28,553
Like, it's like, well, like you guys got yourself to blame for this one.

575
00:47:28,973 --> 00:47:37,053
And and again, like just the level of hubris and openness with which this is happening is is bad.

576
00:47:37,053 --> 00:47:42,413
And there's like another one with it'll be a story in the Wall Street Journal.

577
00:47:42,553 --> 00:47:54,653
But let's just say I was part of a polling engagement where somebody paid a lot of money to right leaning pollsters to convince Trump to scale back deportations and support an amnesty deal.

578
00:47:55,113 --> 00:48:00,393
And it was, in my opinion, the most effective thing that made him change his mind.

579
00:48:01,113 --> 00:48:06,513
And I didn't do it willingly, but like that story is going to come out to like there's a lot of things like that.

580
00:48:07,053 --> 00:48:14,853
so again it's just so unfortunate and egregious again the the crypto the meme coin stuff is

581
00:48:14,853 --> 00:48:22,293
something that i'm closest to and it's like what why completely unnecessary like just you're already

582
00:48:22,293 --> 00:48:27,333
a multi-billionaire when you get out of office your family's going to be set like why do this

583
00:48:27,333 --> 00:48:35,293
while you're in the halls of power and to your point like i'm not going to be like this is a

584
00:48:35,293 --> 00:48:41,293
political witch hunt. Like it's objectively corrupt to a certain extent. And to your,

585
00:48:41,293 --> 00:48:46,573
to your point about like perp walking people, like again, just the, the speed with which you're

586
00:48:46,573 --> 00:48:51,613
moving or the lack of speed with which you're moving. And we did have a good step in that

587
00:48:51,613 --> 00:48:57,393
direction with the, the, the indictment of the woman from where was it? The SPLC or SLPC,

588
00:48:57,753 --> 00:49:04,993
Southern Poverty Law Center. Yeah. Like nobody really knows who that is. You know what I mean?

589
00:49:04,993 --> 00:49:07,273
Like this needed to be like Brennan.

590
00:49:07,273 --> 00:49:08,773
It needed to be Ray.

591
00:49:09,233 --> 00:49:13,593
It probably needed to be whoever signed the auto pen pardons.

592
00:49:13,593 --> 00:49:14,913
It needed to be my Orcas.

593
00:49:15,113 --> 00:49:18,733
And of course they're not going to go after my Orcas and we all know why.

594
00:49:19,213 --> 00:49:20,233
Like, you know what I mean?

595
00:49:20,233 --> 00:49:21,393
Like this is where we're at.

596
00:49:21,393 --> 00:49:26,413
Like it's, it's, and I, you know, I don't know if a lot of people knew this, but the

597
00:49:26,413 --> 00:49:32,133
house oversight committee did not a lot, but it did go after the auto pen parts.

598
00:49:32,133 --> 00:49:32,473
Right.

599
00:49:32,473 --> 00:49:39,793
And I'm pretty sure that they made criminal referrals to the DOJ and that the DOJ chose not to pursue these people.

600
00:49:40,933 --> 00:49:45,073
One can only, you know, conjecture why.

601
00:49:45,353 --> 00:49:51,073
It's because they don't want to undermine the massive overreach of pardons that the Biden administration did.

602
00:49:51,133 --> 00:49:54,453
They don't want to, you know, kill the goose with the golden egg.

603
00:49:54,553 --> 00:49:56,153
So, I mean, like, that's what I'm guessing.

604
00:49:56,773 --> 00:50:01,253
So, again, I mean, it's just not what America wanted.

605
00:50:01,253 --> 00:50:26,093
And I don't know, like you can't pump out like Reaganomics and Muslim hate and dehumanize the socialists enough for me to forget the fact that this was the best chance America had, the best coalition America ever had for financial austerity, for government reform, for economic populism, for reigning in the excess of large corporations, for reindustrializing America.

606
00:50:26,093 --> 00:50:32,773
and it's like at the end of this whole endeavor, it will have been essentially for naught.

607
00:50:33,453 --> 00:50:40,933
In fact, we're not only that. I mean, I think if we play what's going on in Iran to out to its most

608
00:50:40,933 --> 00:50:49,553
likely conclusion, we will have seriously degraded our capabilities to deploy force around the world.

609
00:50:49,553 --> 00:50:55,613
and certainly everybody's view of how powerful we are as a military

610
00:50:55,613 --> 00:50:56,933
has been seriously undermined.

611
00:51:02,093 --> 00:51:04,533
Hey, look again, I'm not trying to make everybody drink,

612
00:51:04,533 --> 00:51:06,153
but it's like, tell me I'm wrong.

613
00:51:06,753 --> 00:51:08,593
No, I mean, it's hard.

614
00:51:09,533 --> 00:51:15,333
It's hard to refute those points.

615
00:51:15,333 --> 00:51:21,693
And that's what I got sort of staring out into into the sky here on my back porch is like, where do we go from here?

616
00:51:21,793 --> 00:51:26,573
Like Democrats take over. Do we get a wave of socialist taking hold?

617
00:51:26,573 --> 00:51:35,333
And how long is it going to take to untangle that Gordian knot of terrible policy decisions that just accelerate us towards Weimar?

618
00:51:36,333 --> 00:51:43,053
Or is it J.D. 28 or somebody like J.D. the only hope to actually revert course?

619
00:51:43,053 --> 00:51:48,973
Well, let's find, let's find something optimistic to talk about. Okay. So first off,

620
00:51:49,053 --> 00:51:54,793
no matter what happens, America will continue for the likely, like near future. Okay. We still have

621
00:51:54,793 --> 00:52:13,329
a country and you know I can say the economy is going to get a lot better but it like the debt will probably not go up much faster than it already has under this Trump administration Like the exponential curve is not going to increase by a factor

622
00:52:13,689 --> 00:52:16,189
It will stay on its current trajectory.

623
00:52:16,849 --> 00:52:19,429
So we got time to figure this out.

624
00:52:20,109 --> 00:52:23,049
And we have two very entrenched establishments.

625
00:52:23,929 --> 00:52:29,409
And like we said, they're both very corporate, oligarchy, plutocratic, whatever you want to call them.

626
00:52:29,989 --> 00:52:33,529
And they both like have aligned interests in many things and work together.

627
00:52:34,489 --> 00:52:37,769
They look out for one particular country in the Middle East.

628
00:52:38,549 --> 00:52:40,989
They and they want you divided.

629
00:52:41,889 --> 00:52:54,049
And I think very honestly that the idea that the constitutional right has of being like racist and undermining people based on.

630
00:52:55,009 --> 00:52:59,409
Things like, you know, like I don't want the people from Somalia to come over here.

631
00:52:59,989 --> 00:53:04,169
But if they went through our process and they are a U.S. citizen, we have to assimilate them.

632
00:53:04,609 --> 00:53:06,649
We can't say they all have to go back.

633
00:53:06,769 --> 00:53:07,249
You know what I mean?

634
00:53:07,329 --> 00:53:12,169
Like we're not like at the same place that the U.K. is yet.

635
00:53:12,169 --> 00:53:23,189
OK, so like if you can't call yourself a constitutional conservative and say that radical Islam is our biggest threat and all Muslims have to leave America, we were founded on like freedom of religion.

636
00:53:23,189 --> 00:53:26,249
Right. It's like literally why we exist as a country.

637
00:53:26,249 --> 00:53:29,949
Right. And on the left, they, you know,

638
00:53:29,989 --> 00:53:35,709
they dehumanize the right and they say that they're Nazi fascists and they do the LGBT stuff

639
00:53:35,709 --> 00:53:40,409
so that the right can attack each other over cultural war issues. And it's been very effective

640
00:53:40,409 --> 00:53:46,229
keeping these people divided and not realizing the extent to which the Democrat and Republican

641
00:53:46,229 --> 00:53:51,609
establishment are tied together. And again, I'm not saying it's all about Israel, but that is the

642
00:53:51,609 --> 00:53:56,209
most obvious Venn diagram overlap, right? So if you take establishment Democrats and establishment

643
00:53:56,209 --> 00:54:00,989
Republicans, they are aligned on that issue. And they're also aligned on blowing up Russia,

644
00:54:01,149 --> 00:54:06,969
right? It's really like military industrial complex slash foreign interventionism. It's

645
00:54:06,969 --> 00:54:12,989
neoconservatism, right? That's what unites these people. Those people are getting old and dying.

646
00:54:13,749 --> 00:54:19,689
And they're also losing the plot and the internet's getting better. And they're losing their grip on

647
00:54:19,689 --> 00:54:26,189
their ability to keep these people divided because that's how they succeed. And we see it right now.

648
00:54:26,209 --> 00:54:50,809
Wow. You know, Hasbara got 730 million allocated to it this year. I'm sure some of Chris Lasavita's Republican Political Action Committee have AstroTurf out there. And they're literally doing it right now. All the left wants to kill you. Don't you remember Charlie Kirk? And it's like, come on, guys. It's not all the left. Yes, the left has some violent people, but they also think the right is violent because they stormed the Capitol building. Right.

649
00:54:50,809 --> 00:55:06,809
So I'm most optimistic that the young people are unideological enough that they can see through these neoconservative division tricks and form a youth coalition that is focused on national populism.

650
00:55:07,369 --> 00:55:08,369
I think that's possible.

651
00:55:08,589 --> 00:55:10,869
And you're starting to see people try.

652
00:55:11,109 --> 00:55:17,429
This thing that Tucker did, I don't – like he's not getting funded from Qatar, right?

653
00:55:17,429 --> 00:55:21,709
Like if you've just bought his borrowed talking point, if you think he's funded from Qatar.

654
00:55:22,149 --> 00:55:27,149
Now, whether his track record is great or whether he should have talked to Hunter Biden, like valid questions.

655
00:55:27,969 --> 00:55:34,349
But what he did with his 10 points was very important because what it does is it signals common ground and collaboration.

656
00:55:35,209 --> 00:55:39,869
And I happened to watch the way that the Young Turks covered what Tucker did.

657
00:55:39,909 --> 00:55:41,389
And there was olive branches there.

658
00:55:42,789 --> 00:55:44,209
So this is possible.

659
00:55:44,209 --> 00:55:49,229
And all we need to do is for people to say, like, at the end of the day, we really all are American.

660
00:55:49,449 --> 00:55:53,029
That's what a nationalistic populist platform would do.

661
00:55:53,229 --> 00:55:57,269
It would find common ground and unite us to building a better country.

662
00:55:57,469 --> 00:55:58,669
How does that country get better?

663
00:55:59,109 --> 00:56:02,049
Well, it's not like the AI data centers.

664
00:56:02,669 --> 00:56:04,469
Maybe that's number 52, right?

665
00:56:04,909 --> 00:56:07,249
But it's like people should be able to afford food here.

666
00:56:07,609 --> 00:56:09,569
They should have livelihoods.

667
00:56:10,109 --> 00:56:12,149
And the government should work for them.

668
00:56:12,149 --> 00:56:27,969
And incidentally, what's great, like I said, is under 40 socialists voted for Trump. These people are also very interested in fairness. They think the people that did things that were wrong should be arrested more so than the boomers.

669
00:56:27,969 --> 00:56:36,929
Like we asked if people who did the auto pen thing should be arrested and it was like over 60% of young people and it was like down in the 40s or something.

670
00:56:37,049 --> 00:56:39,029
I forget what it was, but it was lower with older people.

671
00:56:39,149 --> 00:56:41,789
Like these people want to – they liked blowing up narco boats.

672
00:56:41,909 --> 00:56:43,369
They're like, yep, that's defending America.

673
00:56:43,609 --> 00:56:44,189
Blow them up.

674
00:56:44,809 --> 00:56:48,289
So these people also have even some autocratic tendencies.

675
00:56:48,849 --> 00:56:53,409
So there's a chance that whatever this is is going to color fast and loose with the Constitution.

676
00:56:55,089 --> 00:56:57,649
And it's up for grabs right now.

677
00:56:57,649 --> 00:56:58,489
It really is.

678
00:56:59,249 --> 00:57:01,369
And like, this isn't a small amount of people.

679
00:57:01,369 --> 00:57:05,289
We're talking about 20, 30, 40 million, like whatever this coalition is going to be.

680
00:57:05,549 --> 00:57:10,629
That's enough for an independent to maybe not win, but at least take out one of the other parties.

681
00:57:10,969 --> 00:57:27,666
So you could see a Ross Perot spoiler And I think like JD also gets all this stuff He is the only populist that the only true populist that I aware of You know Bernie talks the right way about some things but he he an establishment creature

682
00:57:29,146 --> 00:57:36,526
But he's in like the hardest spot he could possibly be in because he's still attached to Trump.

683
00:57:36,706 --> 00:57:39,106
Trump's not going to really have much in the way of coattails, I think.

684
00:57:39,106 --> 00:57:47,546
And the establishment Republicans hate him because he's not a Zionist and they're going to do everything in their power to try and take him out.

685
00:57:48,026 --> 00:57:51,826
Not only that, but for the corporate reasons, for the fact that he actually is a populist.

686
00:57:52,566 --> 00:58:03,386
So it's like he's got a really uphill fight and he's the best guy that I personally think we have right now to get America this national populist platform.

687
00:58:03,386 --> 00:58:05,226
I think it needs and it asks for.

688
00:58:05,226 --> 00:58:13,146
so it's like okay maybe it's jd maybe it's aoc maybe the establishment succeeds in getting rubio

689
00:58:13,146 --> 00:58:20,266
in there rubio will almost certainly lose and aoc will probably just be like a laughing stock

690
00:58:20,266 --> 00:58:26,886
retarded president that just does biden stuff right so uh so it's like pray for an outsider

691
00:58:26,886 --> 00:58:36,966
like that's really what it is yeah ah it's such a clown show yeah it is uh it makes you want to

692
00:58:36,966 --> 00:58:43,686
focus on local politics just like get down to the county city state level just focus there yeah yeah

693
00:58:43,686 --> 00:58:49,886
yeah because when you think of the debt i i think i said this last year when you're on um

694
00:58:49,886 --> 00:58:52,566
I'm an economic populist

695
00:58:52,566 --> 00:58:55,326
nationalist myself too.

696
00:58:56,086 --> 00:58:57,546
And I think it all comes back to the money.

697
00:58:57,926 --> 00:59:00,546
I literally think the core of all these problems

698
00:59:00,546 --> 00:59:03,166
and both parties would never agree to do this.

699
00:59:03,206 --> 00:59:06,786
And that's why I'm such a strong advocate for Bitcoin

700
00:59:06,786 --> 00:59:08,286
because it's a sly roundabout way

701
00:59:08,286 --> 00:59:10,766
that Hayek described in the 80s

702
00:59:10,766 --> 00:59:12,626
to take money out of the control of governments

703
00:59:12,626 --> 00:59:13,446
and central banks.

704
00:59:13,646 --> 00:59:15,206
Like you can't fix any of these problems

705
00:59:15,206 --> 00:59:16,326
because they're all spending problems

706
00:59:16,326 --> 00:59:16,906
at the end of the day.

707
00:59:17,006 --> 00:59:18,986
They're all favoritism problems

708
00:59:18,986 --> 00:59:22,266
that are enabled by the ability to issue debt

709
00:59:22,266 --> 00:59:26,866
one time without any thought of replications

710
00:59:26,866 --> 00:59:28,286
or opportunity cost,

711
00:59:28,546 --> 00:59:31,206
because the Fed will always be there to monetize that debt.

712
00:59:31,306 --> 00:59:33,426
Like until you take away their ability

713
00:59:33,426 --> 00:59:36,406
to just print money and throw it at all this bullshit

714
00:59:36,406 --> 00:59:40,966
and enable this crony oligarchic corporate fascism,

715
00:59:41,066 --> 00:59:43,026
whatever we want to call it, it is what it is.

716
00:59:43,646 --> 00:59:43,726
Yeah.

717
00:59:43,886 --> 00:59:44,986
I think it all comes back to the money.

718
00:59:45,386 --> 00:59:47,306
And from an economics perspective,

719
00:59:47,306 --> 00:59:55,866
the only way out is debasement. And that is what is causing everybody to really feel the pains of

720
00:59:55,866 --> 01:00:03,586
financial strife via higher prices. And they think it's Trump, corporate favoritism, or the

721
01:00:03,586 --> 01:00:11,626
socialist and the doling out of subsidies and entitlements. And it's all of it. And it all

722
01:00:11,626 --> 01:00:15,946
stems from literally the money. The most important tool we use as humans, how do you

723
01:00:15,946 --> 01:00:20,286
express value and coordinate economic activity. It's money. And if the money's broken,

724
01:00:21,086 --> 01:00:23,446
your political and economic system is going to be too.

725
01:00:24,286 --> 01:00:30,306
Yeah. So the fourth turning tells us that the pendulum swings back on things like morals,

726
01:00:30,306 --> 01:00:36,426
values, and integrity. And then ultimately what we hear is systemic failure of integrity.

727
01:00:37,486 --> 01:00:43,086
And all of these institutions have been built on ideals that were very popular with the boomer

728
01:00:43,086 --> 01:00:48,586
generation instilled post-World War II and mean nothing now, especially to the younger people.

729
01:00:48,986 --> 01:00:55,986
And they want a fair values-driven economy where people are held accountable for being criminals

730
01:00:55,986 --> 01:01:02,246
and where there's justice. And that has a lot less to do with things like liberalism and socialism.

731
01:01:02,806 --> 01:01:11,726
And also what's kind of wild is that whether or not they support things like flooding the country

732
01:01:11,726 --> 01:01:19,626
with illegals or they support like the LGBT stuff, like there's this libertarian, classical

733
01:01:19,626 --> 01:01:22,686
liberal idea of like, okay, they're a citizen and we're a country.

734
01:01:23,086 --> 01:01:23,486
You know what I mean?

735
01:01:23,526 --> 01:01:28,646
Like the, like, I really do think that the more racist anti-human parts of the conservative

736
01:01:28,646 --> 01:01:33,646
are coming from the older generations that just love to go over and bomb brown people.

737
01:01:34,086 --> 01:01:38,006
And it's like, okay, well, if you're, if you're a constitutional conservative Christian,

738
01:01:38,006 --> 01:01:45,606
Persians have natural rights from God too. You know what I mean? It's like, no, we got,

739
01:01:46,006 --> 01:01:50,446
oh, we just got a glass, the whole country. Like, really? That's your position because you just made

740
01:01:50,446 --> 01:01:55,486
yourself look insane and you're going to try and win an election with that being a core fundamental

741
01:01:55,486 --> 01:02:00,306
belief. Like that's not wise because the young people don't like that. That turns them off.

742
01:02:00,406 --> 01:02:05,306
Most of them. Right. And yet at the same time, they're fine with deporting everybody. It's like,

743
01:02:05,306 --> 01:02:10,626
that's not fair. They shouldn't be here. Get them the hell out. Right. So, but they also don't want

744
01:02:10,626 --> 01:02:16,986
to see like ice goose stepping around neighborhoods, shooting people in the face with tear gas. Cause

745
01:02:16,986 --> 01:02:24,286
that's not American. And, and so like they have finer sensibilities in my opinion about like what

746
01:02:24,286 --> 01:02:29,066
the future should look like and they're going to get political power. And it's like, you look at

747
01:02:29,066 --> 01:02:29,946
where we're at objectively.

748
01:02:29,982 --> 01:02:31,662
As a country, it's not a surprise we're here.

749
01:02:31,842 --> 01:02:35,302
Many countries, many empires have been in this particular circumstance.

750
01:02:36,162 --> 01:02:38,642
But it's just like you can never predict how it's going to play out.

751
01:02:38,642 --> 01:02:45,522
It could be a long, slow decline like Rome, and we just – people stop repairing the roads, and then feet thumbs pop up.

752
01:02:45,662 --> 01:02:46,142
I don't know.

753
01:02:46,542 --> 01:02:47,942
It could be a massive civil war.

754
01:02:48,082 --> 01:02:53,782
It could be total global war, and the establishments will externalize our enemy.

755
01:02:54,982 --> 01:02:56,602
That could actually get us out of this, right?

756
01:02:57,242 --> 01:03:02,962
I don't know if the young people would sign up to fight and die for it and how well conscription would go over now.

757
01:03:02,962 --> 01:03:04,022
Like, I don't know.

758
01:03:04,422 --> 01:03:15,002
Or these people could just like get a really good outsider who's astute enough leader to find very easy to find common ground.

759
01:03:15,142 --> 01:03:16,962
It's very easy to find common ground.

760
01:03:17,242 --> 01:03:21,222
And it's like, hey, like, guys, just shut up about the training stuff.

761
01:03:21,362 --> 01:03:22,842
We're going to get rid of the under.

762
01:03:23,042 --> 01:03:24,982
We're going to get rid of the sex change for minors.

763
01:03:24,982 --> 01:03:29,682
will give you your parental rights, but it's just let them be retarded. You know what I mean? Like,

764
01:03:29,902 --> 01:03:34,262
like there are common grounds on things like this. Somebody could easily do that. It's like,

765
01:03:34,782 --> 01:03:41,342
no Reddit, stop talking about killing your political enemies, you know, bring the CEO in,

766
01:03:41,702 --> 01:03:46,042
give him an earful, tell him he's under investigation, like whatever you have to do,

767
01:03:46,042 --> 01:03:54,382
let's tone this down. And, uh, you know, like the entrenched deep state, the corporate interests,

768
01:03:54,382 --> 01:03:57,002
the foreign interests are not going to want that to happen.

769
01:03:57,402 --> 01:04:00,142
Is Spencer Pratt a dark horse outsider in your mind?

770
01:04:01,482 --> 01:04:01,922
Uh,

771
01:04:02,062 --> 01:04:03,182
I don't know.

772
01:04:03,302 --> 01:04:03,702
Like he,

773
01:04:03,782 --> 01:04:04,622
he caught,

774
01:04:04,722 --> 01:04:05,182
he caught,

775
01:04:05,482 --> 01:04:06,282
he caught a lot of people.

776
01:04:06,342 --> 01:04:08,242
He was doing the right thing in the LA race.

777
01:04:08,722 --> 01:04:09,082
Yeah.

778
01:04:10,642 --> 01:04:12,822
Whoever this person is has to be very impressive.

779
01:04:12,822 --> 01:04:13,802
Like that's the problem.

780
01:04:13,922 --> 01:04:14,402
You know what I mean?

781
01:04:14,402 --> 01:04:15,542
Like the bar is so high,

782
01:04:15,542 --> 01:04:16,382
uh,

783
01:04:16,402 --> 01:04:16,782
you know,

784
01:04:16,782 --> 01:04:17,762
just because like,

785
01:04:17,762 --> 01:04:23,202
like one Teddy Roosevelt speech he makes will get printed in every

786
01:04:23,202 --> 01:04:23,662
newspaper.

787
01:04:24,382 --> 01:04:27,302
And nobody ever sees what he does 99% of the rest of the time.

788
01:04:27,422 --> 01:04:27,842
You know what I mean?

789
01:04:27,922 --> 01:04:31,962
Like now it's like you're going to – it's like Al-Sayed.

790
01:04:32,082 --> 01:04:38,402
Again, I don't want a Democrat socialist to win, but it's like Blues Brothers, dude.

791
01:04:38,862 --> 01:04:39,782
You know what I mean?

792
01:04:40,642 --> 01:04:41,482
Blues Clues.

793
01:04:42,402 --> 01:04:43,542
What did I say?

794
01:04:43,582 --> 01:04:43,922
Blues Brothers?

795
01:04:44,042 --> 01:04:44,682
Yeah, Blues Clues.

796
01:04:44,802 --> 01:04:45,962
Like what are we doing here?

797
01:04:46,882 --> 01:04:47,862
It's a clown show.

798
01:04:48,222 --> 01:04:54,162
It's embarrassing to be – it almost is like we're in the humiliation ritual of some satanic.

799
01:04:54,382 --> 01:05:00,442
a cult or something like that and uh yeah we're like a socialist overtaking the color revolution

800
01:05:00,442 --> 01:05:08,062
just humiliation um but to your point about this younger coalition what's their propensity

801
01:05:08,062 --> 01:05:13,362
to to actually get out and vote is that is that increasing will they actually show up

802
01:05:13,362 --> 01:05:21,622
or they just talk about online uh i mean there there is certainly going to be less of a turnout

803
01:05:21,622 --> 01:05:29,002
out. And the problem is, is it's like, okay, you look back 20 years ago and it's just a totally

804
01:05:29,002 --> 01:05:32,962
different set of young people. And it was a totally different politics. There was a lot more

805
01:05:32,962 --> 01:05:38,642
cultural conservatism and a lot of, you know, like just very different. Right. And so the most

806
01:05:38,642 --> 01:05:44,582
recent example we have is a 2024 presidential election cycle where a lot of new voters came

807
01:05:44,582 --> 01:05:48,202
out for the first time and where there were a lot of crossover Democrats and independents.

808
01:05:48,202 --> 01:06:02,303
So we have this one data point of a 77 million Republican electorate or a presidential cycle But we do not yet have a very good data point of a 77 million Republican electorate or a presidential cycle but we do not yet have a very good data point or like

809
01:06:02,303 --> 01:06:06,843
yes, 2022 was higher turnout than normal, but it was still like very old.

810
01:06:06,983 --> 01:06:10,443
You know what I mean? Like, and it wasn't the same, you know,

811
01:06:10,463 --> 01:06:15,963
people hadn't decided on Trump yet. He was like kind of a non-entity.

812
01:06:16,143 --> 01:06:18,983
Like he wasn't really doing much in 2022 other than getting rated.

813
01:06:19,743 --> 01:06:27,483
In Mar-a-Lago, I think happened that year. And Biden was being awfully retarded, but the Democrats got a wave on the Dobbs decision.

814
01:06:27,823 --> 01:06:33,663
Like that's – the Republicans were up a lot and then that tightened it down to I think a three-point race at the end.

815
01:06:34,883 --> 01:06:42,083
But what we're seeing in all these special elections is that all those people that came out for the first time for Trump are just not coming back out.

816
01:06:42,083 --> 01:06:52,663
And so whether that's because of the youth propensity or lack thereof to come vote, I think it's more of like the youth propensity to not want to put up with, like you say, humiliation rituals.

817
01:06:53,163 --> 01:06:55,503
Right. I think that's really what's going on.

818
01:06:56,463 --> 01:07:03,743
And like I have no case to be made for a higher than expected Republican turnout.

819
01:07:03,963 --> 01:07:08,883
Like I just don't see how that even happens because they've literally underperformed every polling.

820
01:07:08,883 --> 01:07:16,723
And even in these primaries where it's like, you know, you got a bunch of people to show up for Galrine.

821
01:07:16,923 --> 01:07:21,263
It's like, OK, well, how much of that was harvested and unrepeatable at a national scale?

822
01:07:22,263 --> 01:07:24,523
His turnout was like all boomers.

823
01:07:24,803 --> 01:07:30,983
You know, like it's it's not going to be this nationwide groundswell of young people that are afraid.

824
01:07:31,103 --> 01:07:32,543
So they're not afraid of the socialists.

825
01:07:32,543 --> 01:07:33,083
They're not.

826
01:07:33,483 --> 01:07:38,823
I think a lot of people here defund the police and it just goes over the head, not because they don't hate.

827
01:07:38,823 --> 01:07:44,403
the idea, but it's like, they don't think they're serious about it. And we, and it's like, well,

828
01:07:44,403 --> 01:07:48,123
how can, how can that be? That's crazy. It was like, think about the kind of things that people

829
01:07:48,123 --> 01:07:54,003
had to forget about Trump to vote for him. Right. It's like, it's pretty equivalent, right?

830
01:07:55,043 --> 01:08:00,683
They had to, they had to hold their nose and choke down January 6th. And I think January 6th

831
01:08:00,683 --> 01:08:05,123
obviously was a fed off. It was a psychological operation, but a lot of people don't think that

832
01:08:05,123 --> 01:08:08,343
they think that Trump tried to overthrow the government. And then a lot of those people still

833
01:08:08,343 --> 01:08:15,823
voted for him yeah so i mean january 6th was fed up and in my opinion if you just like look at the

834
01:08:15,823 --> 01:08:20,763
people walking around the capitol building so okay yeah i think we got up to about 57 percent of

835
01:08:20,763 --> 01:08:26,423
america agreed that it was the federal federal agents were involved in the january 6th riot yeah

836
01:08:26,423 --> 01:08:32,343
yeah so a lot of people had their eyes open yeah but then you had like a quarter of republicans say

837
01:08:32,343 --> 01:08:37,183
that it was the biggest threat to democracy since the civil war so it's like yeah it was all again

838
01:08:37,183 --> 01:08:38,603
clown show, humiliation ritual.

839
01:08:40,243 --> 01:08:40,543
All right.

840
01:08:41,283 --> 01:08:42,803
We're approaching

841
01:08:42,803 --> 01:08:45,163
midterms. Let's just

842
01:08:45,163 --> 01:08:47,203
maybe the last thing to touch on. What do

843
01:08:47,203 --> 01:08:49,203
you think are the most important

844
01:08:49,203 --> 01:08:51,223
races or topics that

845
01:08:51,223 --> 01:08:52,563
people should be paying attention to?

846
01:08:56,123 --> 01:08:57,323
I'm just worried about

847
01:08:57,323 --> 01:08:59,283
what happens with this conflict in the Middle East

848
01:08:59,283 --> 01:09:01,283
between now and November because we've probably never

849
01:09:01,283 --> 01:09:02,743
been in a bigger window for

850
01:09:02,743 --> 01:09:05,343
a suspected false flag. And I hate

851
01:09:05,343 --> 01:09:06,463
to sound conspiratorial.

852
01:09:07,183 --> 01:09:08,123
But it's true.

853
01:09:08,343 --> 01:09:09,343
It's not conspiratorial.

854
01:09:09,483 --> 01:09:10,043
We got to stop.

855
01:09:10,123 --> 01:09:10,623
We got to stop.

856
01:09:10,683 --> 01:09:11,503
We have to stop.

857
01:09:12,563 --> 01:09:13,463
What's the word I'm like?

858
01:09:13,703 --> 01:09:28,544
Disclaiming I hate to sound It because it objectively true These false flags exist They have existed throughout history And we are in the window for the biggest you know the benefit

859
01:09:29,044 --> 01:09:35,344
The risk-benefit analysis is probably the best calculus it's been for a long time for one of those to happen.

860
01:09:35,904 --> 01:09:37,784
And hopefully it doesn't.

861
01:09:37,784 --> 01:09:44,484
And the same thing, like I just think like really what we're going to do is we're going to tick along until November and nothing's going to change.

862
01:09:44,504 --> 01:09:48,384
Like Trump's going to put out some positive economic numbers.

863
01:09:48,504 --> 01:09:50,264
The Democrats are going to put out some negative ones.

864
01:09:50,884 --> 01:09:54,744
Everybody's going to run a bunch of ads and everybody's going to be harvesting a bunch of mail-in ballots.

865
01:09:55,504 --> 01:09:57,524
And I don't know what's going on with the machines.

866
01:09:57,664 --> 01:09:59,044
I don't know who controls them now.

867
01:09:59,144 --> 01:10:00,384
It's going to be very unpredictable.

868
01:10:00,384 --> 01:10:04,324
There's probably going to be a huge polling miss because how can you even predict what's going to go on?

869
01:10:04,324 --> 01:10:16,284
But it's like what I don't know yet is how effective the Democrats will be with whatever this anti-corruption advertisement and theatrics they do because they've been very quiet.

870
01:10:16,764 --> 01:10:23,364
And there hasn't been a lot of overt Trump hatred, and they just let him cook.

871
01:10:24,804 --> 01:10:29,284
So we'll see what that looks like, and it could be wild.

872
01:10:29,484 --> 01:10:31,284
Maybe it won't do anything.

873
01:10:31,284 --> 01:10:43,684
But it's like if we tick along until November and the polling stays about the same, I do think Republicans will underperform the Democrat plus eight real clear politics aggregate right now in House popular vote level by a point or two.

874
01:10:43,824 --> 01:10:48,164
I think that's based on what all has happened with all the special elections.

875
01:10:49,284 --> 01:10:59,304
And what we're looking at then is how accurate were the estimates of how many seats that people have picked up in redistricting because all of that was based on 2024.

876
01:10:59,304 --> 01:11:12,564
And so if you really have what that would be is like if Democrats pulled a plus 10 House popular vote, that's like almost a 12 point swing from where we were in 2024.

877
01:11:13,384 --> 01:11:22,044
And so when people say the House is entrenched or the Republicans are picking up seats, it's not in an environment with a 12 point swing.

878
01:11:22,344 --> 01:11:28,164
And so what you might see is like there's this trough where the House doesn't really move that much if we stay within this range.

879
01:11:28,164 --> 01:11:32,304
You get outside of it, the Democrats are just going to be picking up seats that people didn't expect.

880
01:11:32,624 --> 01:11:39,584
And who knows who they are, you know, because in some of these districts, it's only going to be a five point swing and others is going to be a 17 point swing.

881
01:11:39,764 --> 01:11:51,224
You look at like the Watley race that's going on in North Carolina and he's underperforming Trump by 17 points in the latest poll that I saw.

882
01:11:52,264 --> 01:11:55,844
Like, you know, like that's that's not good.

883
01:11:55,844 --> 01:12:02,384
Like, and so I don't know, I think you see potentially like, like Texas is in play.

884
01:12:02,384 --> 01:12:04,424
It absolutely a hundred percent is in play.

885
01:12:04,684 --> 01:12:07,664
And it only comes down to electioneering at the state.

886
01:12:07,664 --> 01:12:11,704
Like it really does because the polling is tight, like a couple of points apart.

887
01:12:11,884 --> 01:12:15,124
And that's not where it should be when Trump won by like 13 points in Texas.

888
01:12:15,124 --> 01:12:15,504
Right.

889
01:12:15,584 --> 01:12:19,884
And then Ohio, like I think Vivek's in danger, a hundred percent Iowa.

890
01:12:19,884 --> 01:12:21,484
so

891
01:12:21,484 --> 01:12:22,544
but again

892
01:12:22,544 --> 01:12:25,584
if it's not a

893
01:12:25,584 --> 01:12:27,804
57 to 43 Republican

894
01:12:27,804 --> 01:12:30,024
lead in the Senate they're not going to get any legislation

895
01:12:30,024 --> 01:12:30,964
through anyways so

896
01:12:30,964 --> 01:12:32,664
I don't think the Senate matters

897
01:12:32,664 --> 01:12:36,284
we're just going to wake up

898
01:12:36,284 --> 01:12:37,824
to a very close House race

899
01:12:37,824 --> 01:12:50,825
or Democrats just like ran the board I do want to note before we wrap up here it is insane that bout harvesting and rigged elections are just expected now

900
01:12:52,045 --> 01:12:52,605
Yeah.

901
01:12:53,165 --> 01:12:56,085
It was taboo in 2020.

902
01:12:56,705 --> 01:13:03,364
Six years later, 2026, it is basically accepted as a fact of how the system works.

903
01:13:03,905 --> 01:13:04,065
Yeah.

904
01:13:04,065 --> 01:13:07,045
You know, Michigan, look at Al Syed, right?

905
01:13:07,045 --> 01:13:10,625
He underperformed the polling by nine points.

906
01:13:10,905 --> 01:13:14,065
There were good pollsters like Emerson who had him up 14, I think.

907
01:13:14,165 --> 01:13:14,825
Emerson had him.

908
01:13:15,765 --> 01:13:22,045
And then, of course, Trump comes out the same the next morning and says he only won because he cheated.

909
01:13:22,225 --> 01:13:23,905
And it's like, no, bro.

910
01:13:24,244 --> 01:13:27,645
The black precincts in Detroit were stuffing ballots.

911
01:13:27,645 --> 01:13:34,145
and because he doesn't have the SEIU behind him or whatever it is, because he doesn't have the

912
01:13:34,145 --> 01:13:40,405
political organizations that bus people from neighboring states, because he doesn't have

913
01:13:40,405 --> 01:13:46,045
the people in vans that go around to nursing homes with blank mail-in ballots or write these mail-in

914
01:13:46,045 --> 01:13:52,104
ballots in a warehouse somewhere, again, with SEIU workers or something. The anti-establishment

915
01:13:52,104 --> 01:13:57,405
people don't have that capability. And I think they, it's impossible to know how much. And

916
01:13:57,405 --> 01:14:02,965
obviously some of it was a mismatch in capabilities from an advertising perspective. And I don't know

917
01:14:02,965 --> 01:14:07,525
how good of a campaign he ran, but there was some cheating guaranteed. There was some cheating and

918
01:14:07,525 --> 01:14:12,785
who cheated. They wanted to keep the APAC candidate in. That's really what it was. They paid $70

919
01:14:12,785 --> 01:14:17,565
million for Haley Stevens. And then they would have had an APAC candidate on both sides of that

920
01:14:17,565 --> 01:14:22,244
race. And why? Like Trump freaked out on True Socially, came out the next day. It was one of

921
01:14:22,244 --> 01:14:27,744
the only races he talked about, right? And it's like, well, like, why is that? Well, the AIPAC

922
01:14:27,744 --> 01:14:33,104
lost a Senate seat. That's what it is. You know what I mean? Like, not in the general, in the

923
01:14:33,104 --> 01:14:39,224
primary, like, because everybody can say like, and there was a poll that put Rogers out four points.

924
01:14:39,325 --> 01:14:45,565
I think he loses. Rogers lost when Trump was on the ballot. So, you know, I think that four point

925
01:14:45,565 --> 01:14:51,065
was an outlier, but we'll see. Maybe people don't really, maybe they'll really vote against

926
01:14:51,065 --> 01:14:57,885
a Muslim socialist, but I don't think so. I don't know. We'll see. And hopefully,

927
01:14:58,065 --> 01:15:01,565
we don't wait nine months to do it. Maybe we'll catch up after the midterms. I'm sure you're going

928
01:15:01,565 --> 01:15:07,085
to be busy the next couple of months. But really appreciate you coming on. Congrats on starting

929
01:15:07,085 --> 01:15:13,244
the Honest Poll, doing it with integrity. It's lacking these days, so I really appreciate that

930
01:15:13,244 --> 01:15:14,405
you're putting an effort to,

931
01:15:14,465 --> 01:15:17,025
to preserve your integrity and do things the right way.

932
01:15:18,325 --> 01:15:19,224
That's what I'm here for.

933
01:15:19,285 --> 01:15:19,924
It's my goal.

934
01:15:20,385 --> 01:15:21,585
If I ever lose my integrity,

935
01:15:21,665 --> 01:15:22,224
I'll shut down.

936
01:15:22,545 --> 01:15:23,285
So where,

937
01:15:23,385 --> 01:15:26,125
where can we send people to learn more?

938
01:15:26,465 --> 01:15:29,924
So we have a landing page at the honest poll.com.

939
01:15:30,025 --> 01:15:32,045
Please sign up for free sub stack notifications.

940
01:15:32,424 --> 01:15:35,085
And the second I get this YouTube thing straightened out,

941
01:15:35,125 --> 01:15:38,265
we'll have the YouTube channel back up and we'll be putting out,

942
01:15:38,265 --> 01:15:38,984
you know,

943
01:15:38,984 --> 01:15:44,085
we're really going to get our content honed into higher value stuff,

944
01:15:44,085 --> 01:15:48,604
like understanding public sentiment and how it drives like behind the

945
01:15:48,604 --> 01:15:49,104
narratives.

946
01:15:49,345 --> 01:15:50,265
Because again,

947
01:15:50,484 --> 01:15:54,104
almost everything we see now is establishment Kabuki theater and there's

948
01:15:54,104 --> 01:15:55,505
nobody like really nailing that.

949
01:15:55,505 --> 01:15:56,505
And so on Twitter,

950
01:15:56,505 --> 01:15:58,525
it's at honest pollster as well.

951
01:15:58,625 --> 01:15:59,845
So people check me out.

952
01:15:59,845 --> 01:16:00,804
I got a lot of hot takes.

953
01:16:01,345 --> 01:16:02,145
Go check it out.

954
01:16:02,225 --> 01:16:02,385
Great.

955
01:16:02,445 --> 01:16:03,405
Follow Mark.

956
01:16:03,585 --> 01:16:04,345
It's always a pleasure,

957
01:16:04,465 --> 01:16:04,565
sir.

958
01:16:04,625 --> 01:16:05,005
Thank you.

959
01:16:05,804 --> 01:16:06,244
Thanks Marty.

960
01:16:06,825 --> 01:16:06,965
Peace.

961
01:16:07,025 --> 01:16:07,425
Love freaks.

962
01:16:07,684 --> 01:16:07,845
Okay.