1
00:00:00,900 --> 00:00:02,820
Jordy Visser, welcome back to the show, sir.

2
00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:05,020
It's good to be back, Marty. How you doing?

3
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:10,460
Doing well. Doing well. Like I was saying, it's a bit colder than I'm used to in the fall,

4
00:00:10,540 --> 00:00:15,200
having lived in Texas for the last four years, but getting used to it and very excited for this

5
00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:21,980
conversation. As I was saying before we hit record, your weekly show has been a staple of

6
00:00:21,980 --> 00:00:25,940
mine for many months now, and I really appreciate you putting it out there.

7
00:00:25,940 --> 00:00:32,260
i love doing it but uh i really like it when it helps people so i love hearing it

8
00:00:32,260 --> 00:00:37,580
it's great to have you here i think having been in bitcoin for 12 years now

9
00:00:37,580 --> 00:00:42,740
sometimes it feels like anything that can be said about bitcoin has been said but

10
00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:48,240
you wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago that i think was incredibly insightful for a lot of

11
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:54,460
bitcoiners particularly those who came from a cypherpunk um and libertarian background not

12
00:00:54,460 --> 00:01:00,180
really understanding why the Bitcoin price is hovering right above 100,000. We're 18 months

13
00:01:00,180 --> 00:01:05,300
past the halving. We're supposed to be experiencing a parabolic bull run, and many people are

14
00:01:05,300 --> 00:01:09,320
scratching their heads wondering what the heck is happening here. You wrote a piece about Bitcoin's

15
00:01:09,320 --> 00:01:16,100
IPO moment, really anchoring to experiences you've had in traditional markets, saying that

16
00:01:16,100 --> 00:01:28,840
This reminds you of the post.com bubble burst sort of atmosphere that that was the case for Internet stocks like Google, Amazon.

17
00:01:29,180 --> 00:01:32,340
And I think it was incredibly compelling.

18
00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:39,760
So I think starting there and jumping off with Bitcoin's IPO would be great for the audience.

19
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:47,320
Yeah, I think I think you hit on a couple of things that I haven't spoken about before, but you you reminded me.

20
00:01:48,520 --> 00:02:00,740
First is, I think to have a fresh look at something that helps with the fact that I really didn't spend an enormous amount of time on the space until the past couple of years.

21
00:02:00,740 --> 00:02:06,660
And I think my entree into really believing in Bitcoin was back in 2020.

22
00:02:06,660 --> 00:02:16,060
So I don't have the history of watching it go from, you know, from 10 to 100,000 for the entire time.

23
00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:21,580
But what I do have is a lot of experience with the dot-com bubble.

24
00:02:21,920 --> 00:02:30,840
And for those who haven't heard me talk about this, I mean, I was at the heart of it in the prime of my kind of youth.

25
00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,580
Back then, I was running an index book for Morgan Stanley.

26
00:02:35,580 --> 00:02:40,740
I was running the ETFs for Morgan Stanley, and that was back in exactly at the dot-com bubble.

27
00:02:40,920 --> 00:02:44,060
So I saw it knock these stocks down.

28
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:49,380
And for those wondering if AI is a bubble or whatever, it's not.

29
00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:54,240
There's no way to compare what was going on in 99, 98, 2000.

30
00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:55,840
And I've talked about it on my weekly.

31
00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:07,720
But the period coming out of the dot-com bubble, it took a long time for the NDX to get back or QQQs to get back to all-time highs.

32
00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:16,520
I mean, we're talking well over a decade from the lows to get back to the highs and even longer from the peak.

33
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:40,280
And so over the course of the last six months, as I wanted to look at why the same thing everyone else was frustrated about, meaning I thought we would have been, you know, at least three times where we are right now, purely based on the network effects that were kicking in, purely based on the government that was supporting it.

34
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:45,140
And the fact that I thought everyone would front load kind of the performance into this year.

35
00:03:45,580 --> 00:03:47,140
And instead, we got the opposite.

36
00:03:47,660 --> 00:03:50,480
And so I had to spend time asking what was happening.

37
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,940
I had to spend a lot more time going through and talking to people that have been in the space for a long time.

38
00:03:54,940 --> 00:04:01,460
But I really spent most of the time with the people who had transitioned from the traditional finance world to this.

39
00:04:01,460 --> 00:04:16,980
And it was through those conversations that it became more and more evident to me that this was very similar to kind of a, as I wrote about it, a silent IPO, that Bitcoin had just reached a point where there's no reason for someone to own $9 billion of Bitcoin.

40
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,320
There's no rationale that I would have.

41
00:04:20,380 --> 00:04:27,140
In fact, the way that I spoke to people about it, let's assume OGs have sold $100 billion and you sold $9 billion.

42
00:04:27,860 --> 00:04:31,840
OK, how much money do you have in other assets if you've got $9 billion in this one?

43
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:37,140
And if you were starting a portfolio today, would you buy $9 billion of Bitcoin?

44
00:04:37,900 --> 00:04:38,760
And the answer is no.

45
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:41,340
You want to diversify.

46
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,700
No matter what your views are on it, it's there.

47
00:04:43,700 --> 00:04:49,060
Secondly, this is what happens in IPOs, is that you get the original investors who took

48
00:04:49,060 --> 00:04:55,220
the most risk, the risk when it was completely not something obvious, when you had to fight

49
00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:59,420
through the governments and you had to fight through the non-believers. I mean, even now,

50
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,800
as someone who's involved in, I can't believe how impossible it is for me to convert anyone

51
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:09,060
in the traditional finance world. So imagine how difficult it is in my mind to think about everyone

52
00:05:09,060 --> 00:05:16,620
that had to go through this for the past 15 years when it was small. I think that's really

53
00:05:16,620 --> 00:05:21,440
where the reality set into me that all of this selling that's been happening, that's trapped the

54
00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:27,180
price, the decline in volatility, reminds me a lot of what happened after finally the dot-com

55
00:05:27,180 --> 00:05:34,960
bubble reached a point and Google came out as an IPO in 2004 and so did Salesforce.com.

56
00:05:35,500 --> 00:05:40,100
Those things have gone off to just massive, obviously, importance over the world. They had

57
00:05:40,100 --> 00:05:44,100
great outperformance. And so I think the thing people should be thinking about is that the next

58
00:05:44,100 --> 00:05:49,960
20 to 25 years in Bitcoin, and I didn't write about this in that paper, but I did in the

59
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:56,380
Substack I posted this week, this is about the democratization of the use of crypto,

60
00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:03,800
as opposed to the ideology around libertarian, as you said, the cypherpunk kind of mentality.

61
00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,280
That existed even with the beginning of the internet. But eventually, if you want an asset

62
00:06:08,280 --> 00:06:13,760
and an innovation to grab everyone, which is what's necessary at this point to get it to the

63
00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:19,000
sizes that people are talking about, it has to be fully democratized. And to be democratized

64
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:24,560
is not the same as a libertarian movement. There is ETFs that are needed. There are

65
00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:29,320
having it in terms of remittances. You need stable coins. All of these things were necessity.

66
00:06:29,900 --> 00:06:35,260
And so I really do think we are in the post dot-com bubble. And for people that are a little

67
00:06:35,260 --> 00:06:40,580
worried about kind of a 10-year process, this thing has been consolidating now for a reasonable

68
00:06:40,580 --> 00:06:47,240
amount of time. And I think Bitcoin, the time for Bitcoin ends up being much shorter than it does

69
00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,720
in the developed market or the traditional market.

70
00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,600
So I fully expect that next year is going to be a big year

71
00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,680
for not only crypto, but through Bitcoin.

72
00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,120
Yeah, it's really interesting to observe sentiment on X,

73
00:06:59,220 --> 00:07:01,360
particularly it's down pretty bad.

74
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,760
People are very bearish thinking we're going to turn over

75
00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,880
and head back down into the 80,000.

76
00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:09,440
Some people even say in 60,000.

77
00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:13,180
But I think a really good point that you made in that piece

78
00:07:13,180 --> 00:07:15,480
and that people really need to internalize is that,

79
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:21,040
for lack of a better term, this is bullish distribution because you're taking the supply

80
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:26,740
of Bitcoin, which was previously held in relatively few hands and distributing that to

81
00:07:26,740 --> 00:07:33,200
many more hands who have different time horizons, different needs at different given points in time.

82
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:39,040
And I think one can make a strong argument that this is actually bullish at the end of the day

83
00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:44,080
because you're distributing supply and it's going into the hands of people who probably

84
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:48,800
are going to wait for it to monetize even more before they decide to do something with it.

85
00:07:49,780 --> 00:07:55,020
Yeah. So here's the funny thing about this. I think I've now started. So I do this in the

86
00:07:55,020 --> 00:08:00,180
traditional world in terms of thinking about the flows. Retail has had a huge impact on the stock

87
00:08:00,180 --> 00:08:06,240
market this year. It's obviously had a huge impact on Bitcoin over the years. But the more that I've

88
00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:13,220
spent time and I listened to an A16Z podcast about their state of crypto for 2025,

89
00:08:13,220 --> 00:08:30,400
And it was really, really good. And people should listen to it. But one of the things they kind of hammered across to me is this. I'm breaking kind of what will be fueling this distribution over the course of the next 15 years down to three components.

90
00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,380
One is obviously the institutional adoption, which is we all see increasing.

91
00:08:35,180 --> 00:08:37,640
We see it being now brought up in the banks.

92
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:39,760
Everything is just going to continue to grow.

93
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:46,800
And that's going to continue to happen with just everything with inside of space in terms of the institutions getting involved.

94
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:48,920
You'll start to get more pension funds involved.

95
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,460
You'll start to get that institutional adoption going.

96
00:08:52,140 --> 00:08:57,480
But when you break it down, the developed world has a trading mentality with Bitcoin.

97
00:08:57,740 --> 00:08:59,740
So the sentiment goes up and it goes down.

98
00:08:59,740 --> 00:09:02,920
If you're not making money in it, you're looking for something else to make money in.

99
00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,320
Trading and gambling is a part of this culture.

100
00:09:05,580 --> 00:09:11,200
It's a part of the group that matters for not only Bitcoin, but for a lot of the AI stocks.

101
00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,120
When you get into the developing world, that's a different story.

102
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:16,000
They own Bitcoin.

103
00:09:16,700 --> 00:09:28,040
That ownership in a lot of countries is more dependent on the part that Michael Saylor talks about, which is hiding your money away from the governments, from true debasement.

104
00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:34,040
not what we go through in the United States. I really recommend that people go spend some time

105
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:41,080
living in Argentina or Brazil, as I did for some of my years, and get to see what true debasement

106
00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:47,240
is. What we're going through in the U.S. is not true debasement. The GDP per capita of the U.S.

107
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:52,120
is higher than every other place in the world that owns this much Bitcoin. So I think what we

108
00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:57,920
just have to get used to is that the developing worlds treat both stablecoins for remittances,

109
00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:03,940
and for transactions and a way to have stable value. And then when you get into the potential

110
00:10:03,940 --> 00:10:08,060
of actually growing your money, that's where Bitcoin fits in. That ownership and that

111
00:10:08,060 --> 00:10:12,920
redistribution is not only happening with inside Bitcoin, it's happening with inside the globe.

112
00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,080
And this is the argument that got me attracted to Bitcoin in the first place,

113
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:21,880
not because wealthy people in the US would buy it, but because of the transfer of wealth from

114
00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:27,200
the demographics in terms of the ownership in the US going to a younger cohort, but then also

115
00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:31,520
the entrepreneurs of the world that are going to benefit from the democratization of education,

116
00:10:31,680 --> 00:10:36,640
the democratization that comes through artificial intelligence, but also through banking. And that

117
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:41,760
growth is going to happen every year. And so you'll get the fuel from the developed world in the US

118
00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:46,300
and Europe and places that have money with the kids that are trading it. Once we get momentum

119
00:10:46,300 --> 00:10:50,780
going again in Bitcoin, they'll be involved again. But for the time being, there's a growing bid

120
00:10:50,780 --> 00:10:55,420
underneath, which has offset all of the OG selling. And that's why, to me, this is a very

121
00:10:55,420 --> 00:11:01,780
positive distribution that's going on to sell $100 billion from a few people. Someone has to

122
00:11:01,780 --> 00:11:08,400
buy $100 billion, and this is going to a lot of groups of people. And then on top of that,

123
00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:15,440
you had Square's big rollout of merchants, their sellers being able to receive Bitcoin payments or

124
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:21,000
just simply automatically convert a portion of their cash flows in the Bitcoin on the back end.

125
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:26,360
And obviously, the number that's being thrown around, 4 million merchants across the U.S.

126
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:33,800
And let's say a tenth of those actually turn on cash conversions to 10 percent Bitcoin.

127
00:11:34,380 --> 00:11:36,960
That could be material in the long run, too.

128
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:38,520
And so the infrastructure is getting built out.

129
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:39,160
It's all there.

130
00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:41,400
I've never been more bullish personally.

131
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:42,620
No.

132
00:11:42,740 --> 00:11:48,660
And I really think the Zelle news, when that came out a couple of weeks ago, was a big deal.

133
00:11:48,660 --> 00:11:59,980
Not because obviously it directly goes to Bitcoin, but I don't think people realize how challenging it was for people to even get around the concept of opening or having a digital wallet.

134
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,880
So for, you know, the baby boomers control.

135
00:12:05,260 --> 00:12:11,600
90, you know, close to 90 percent of the net worth on the planet, at least when you get above the age of 65.

136
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:17,240
And when you go through the demographics of ownership of crypto, you're completely on the other side.

137
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:22,580
So if baby boomers would never get a digital wallet, well, they would use Zelle.

138
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:24,500
They would go through a bank.

139
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,620
And if they automatically have a digital wallet, it opens up the potential.

140
00:12:29,180 --> 00:12:37,240
And I used to joke with people on DraftKings and FanDuel that the second someone opens an account on there, their life changes dramatically.

141
00:12:37,820 --> 00:12:39,220
And all of a sudden they start gaming.

142
00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:43,840
It's almost impossible for someone to watch a game then and not be involved in it.

143
00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:50,840
And I think once a digital wallet comes in and it's almost instantaneous that you can take excess cash and make a decision on where it goes.

144
00:12:51,020 --> 00:12:52,560
You mentioned the commerce side.

145
00:12:52,660 --> 00:12:54,980
I'm heavily focused on the tokenization side.

146
00:12:55,060 --> 00:13:02,240
I think tokenization is just a natural next step of how you get the massive amounts of volumes going through the economy.

147
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:09,500
And as Caitlin Long said recently, the velocity of money is just going to pick up with all of these advancements.

148
00:13:09,500 --> 00:13:13,080
but it's funny you mentioned kayla long because i was just going to mention i saw

149
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:18,300
a clip of her on a show earlier today saying that the ach network is going to be completely

150
00:13:18,300 --> 00:13:22,960
replaced with stable coin and token infrastructure by 2030 which is

151
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:31,280
not as long as i would have expected it to take like four a little over four years from now okay

152
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:51,960
considering um you know and again the financial guardrails for bitcoin to get to the level it did without already having the financial guardrails set up it just shows how the governments can stop anything But money is the last thing that governments want to allow to actually have any kind of innovation involved with it to lose control

153
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,520
And so what Caitlin's talking about, I agree.

154
00:13:56,020 --> 00:14:02,380
To have it happen five years from now, it's one of the most significant things that's happened in the history of capitalism.

155
00:14:02,380 --> 00:14:06,840
stuff. Well, and this is a theme you've been talking about on your weekly show.

156
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:12,860
And one that I think we should touch on, I think a lot of Bitcoiners are looking at the price

157
00:14:12,860 --> 00:14:18,680
action now. And if they don't understand that, OGs are selling in mass and you have this constant

158
00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:24,640
bid. And a lot of people are pointing to Fed policy, liquidity conditions and saying, this

159
00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:29,740
is the reason why we need QE to come back and the money printer to get turned back on. But you've

160
00:14:29,740 --> 00:14:35,140
been making the point that the new QE is not going to look like the old QE and AI and Bitcoin

161
00:14:35,140 --> 00:14:42,780
are going to be at the middle of it. Yeah, this is something I'm spending. There's two concepts

162
00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:46,920
that I spend a lot of time thinking about. It's hard for me to find

163
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:54,680
writings on this. It's hard for me to find people who think this way, because when I start getting

164
00:14:54,680 --> 00:15:03,420
into abundance and just the viewpoint that if stable coins end up taking most, if gradually

165
00:15:03,420 --> 00:15:08,040
the money moves into this world, the leverage in the fiat system comes down and there's this

166
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,880
kind of, okay, less leverage, more velocity.

167
00:15:11,260 --> 00:15:13,780
And that's what Caitlin was effectively talking about.

168
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:21,120
If you leave the fractional reserve banking system and you move it into crypto and we

169
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:26,760
actually have kind of a one for one mentality as opposed to a nine to one or 10 to one mentality,

170
00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:33,480
there's a process that has to go on. And the second thing is just this concept of time.

171
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:41,000
This is all happening so quickly. And artificial intelligence has the same component of getting

172
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:46,020
rid of leverage. And the leverage that's been in there is not necessarily through money. It's

173
00:15:46,020 --> 00:15:53,520
getting rid of the leverage in people, meaning in a business, how many people you need to work

174
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:59,140
in a company. And that process is a form of QE in the fact that earnings per share go higher.

175
00:15:59,140 --> 00:16:03,940
I was listening to someone today who said the economy is now very circular, and it is in the

176
00:16:03,940 --> 00:16:09,000
United States, especially, it's completely financialized. So if everyone, you know,

177
00:16:09,020 --> 00:16:13,880
gradually is replaced through demographics, not through job losses, and I want to make sure that

178
00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,660
people understand this. I do this weekly thing to highlight that there's no hiring going on,

179
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:23,540
but there's a natural attrition in people working in the workforce by the demographics.

180
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,420
So if we have a combination of people leaving the labor force because they've made too much money,

181
00:16:29,420 --> 00:16:35,080
because the net worth in the country is now $180 trillion, those people don't need to work

182
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:39,260
anymore. So think Jeff Bezos sailing around on his yacht, doesn't need to work anymore.

183
00:16:39,860 --> 00:16:44,400
Those people, as they gradually leave through making money, there's no one to replace them.

184
00:16:44,540 --> 00:16:46,740
As people get older, there's no one to replace them.

185
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,620
As people get transfer payments and they retire, there's no one to replace them.

186
00:16:50,620 --> 00:16:55,720
So there's a loss of jobs that happens about $300,000 a year purely from that.

187
00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,560
And the way immigration is changing, I mentioned this on a podcast recently.

188
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:06,820
immigration was a way for governments to try and figure out a way to continue population growth,

189
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:12,680
which was a way to keep GDP going. So no one wanted to end up in the Japan trap where you

190
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,920
start having a shrinking population and you're stuck in deflation. So these countries, whether

191
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:21,400
it's Europe or the US, wanted to have more immigration to help the population growth.

192
00:17:21,940 --> 00:17:27,200
Well, now with artificial intelligence, you're messing with all of that. Companies are able to

193
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:32,960
grow their earnings through operating leverage. And the way that I did the math on it, for every

194
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:39,640
QE dollar that went in to basically take rates to zero, companies were able to issue debt and then

195
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,920
go out and buy their own stock. So they would issue debt at close to zero and they'd buy their

196
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:50,020
stock with an earnings yield close to 6% throughout the 2010 to 2019 period, financial engineering.

197
00:17:50,180 --> 00:17:54,220
You had commercial real estate, you had private equity, you started to get private debt, private

198
00:17:54,220 --> 00:17:59,560
credit. All of these things that were happening because of the ZERP QE world, they're not happening

199
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,200
anymore, but the economy is still growing. The reason the economy is growing is because of

200
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,860
artificial intelligence. It's a combination of the build out that's happening, but it's also a

201
00:18:07,860 --> 00:18:12,760
combination that's coming in of, hey, we don't have to hire as many people. And you get the

202
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:17,480
operating leverage on top of it, which is more than one for one. So the new QE for keeping

203
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:24,180
crypto going, for keeping the fiat assets going, is actually in this replacement of people and this

204
00:18:24,180 --> 00:18:29,160
for companies to become more efficient, to grow their numbers, and that will allow crypto to

205
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:34,960
continue to gain strength. Because if the S&P went down 40%, we'd have a problem because then

206
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:39,920
the liquidity is going down and there's nothing going on. So it's the reason why I wrote the paper

207
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,600
on it is that people don't think of artificial intelligence that way. But the reduction of people

208
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:49,660
at a time when we need that because of demographics is actually a very helpful thing for the

209
00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:56,480
productivity of the country. And with that, though, we have this backdrop of another topic

210
00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:00,440
you've been talking about is the K-shaped economy. So we have all this productivity growth,

211
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:07,420
increase in profit margins for companies that are implementing AI. And yet the

212
00:19:07,420 --> 00:19:13,520
working class that is probably going to get replaced, white, white collar working class,

213
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:21,220
likely first, is not fully reaping the benefits of this in terms of their paychecks and their

214
00:19:21,220 --> 00:19:27,280
ability to afford themselves a higher quality of life.

215
00:19:27,340 --> 00:19:32,180
And this seems like a social and political problem that not only the Trump administration,

216
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:39,160
but any administration that comes after this Trump administration, whether it's Republican

217
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,420
or Democrat, is going to have to really deal with.

218
00:19:42,420 --> 00:19:51,180
And I think this is something you've been thinking deeply about is what do we do on the as we go through this inflection point?

219
00:19:51,300 --> 00:19:55,540
And ultimately, when we end up on the other side, what does life look like?

220
00:19:55,560 --> 00:20:02,680
Not only the economy, what do humans do if and when AI takes over?

221
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,040
Yeah, the next five years is not going to be easy.

222
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:18,940
And again, I don't think people are going to just lose jobs, but I do think the concept that people have to understand is they focus on job losses and unemployed.

223
00:20:19,420 --> 00:20:21,980
The psychological side is underemployed.

224
00:20:22,260 --> 00:20:31,340
You went to school, you got an education, you got a degree, and you were either hoping or believing that you would have a job in that field.

225
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:36,240
Well, not all those fields exist going forward because AI will disrupt many of them.

226
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:41,000
and some of the ones that people spend the most time going to school for, whether it's, you know,

227
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:48,520
on the lawyer side, the health care side, in terms of doctors, AI will be disrupting every

228
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:55,080
job that we're involved in, not overnight. It's not for people to get scared of, but the rise is

229
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,020
for people who want to be entrepreneurs. And the difference between an entrepreneur and actually

230
00:20:59,020 --> 00:21:07,300
working in an office or managing people, you know, you're getting paid by the hour and you get a

231
00:21:07,300 --> 00:21:14,560
better balance of life. And so I've said always that, you know, when I was young, my father,

232
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:20,380
who was a construction worker, I mean, he died recently. He had knee problems. He had hearing

233
00:21:20,380 --> 00:21:26,580
problems, all as a result of hard labor. A lot of the baby boomers worked in fields, particularly in

234
00:21:26,580 --> 00:21:34,120
in the middle of the country in industries that have hurt them over time. And I think young kids

235
00:21:34,120 --> 00:21:39,180
don't want to go into that. I didn't want to go into construction. My father had a good math brain.

236
00:21:39,340 --> 00:21:44,840
He taught me a lot about handicapping a horse race and thinking about odds and going through

237
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:49,220
all that. So that's what got me into the stock market. That's what got me into Morgan Stanley.

238
00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:53,820
That's what eventually got me into crypto. And so I got to live a different life. I chose not

239
00:21:53,820 --> 00:21:58,900
to stay in the hedge fund world this year because I wanted a better quality of life where I actually

240
00:21:58,900 --> 00:22:04,780
wanted to do three things. One was spend more time kind of analyzing things and doing deep thinking.

241
00:22:04,780 --> 00:22:09,920
I'd always written and I had always done these sort of these videos, but it was mainly for my

242
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:15,840
investors. And I just thought there was a chance to kind of do what I was always told that I did

243
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,140
well, which was take complex things and explain them. So that was number one. Two is to get more

244
00:22:20,140 --> 00:22:23,940
hours back in my life where I could be in Maine all summer and I could be skiing all winter,

245
00:22:24,100 --> 00:22:29,180
which is what I want to do. I love nature and I love being outside. And that's what I'm set my

246
00:22:29,180 --> 00:22:33,500
life up to be able to do. But the third thing, and probably most importantly, which is why I do

247
00:22:33,500 --> 00:22:38,040
these things and why I'm spending more time in artificial intelligence than most people my age,

248
00:22:38,460 --> 00:22:43,980
is I actually wanted to help people get through this point. I had always managed people since the

249
00:22:43,980 --> 00:22:50,060
time I was 29. I think people that have worked for me and have known me, know me as someone that

250
00:22:50,060 --> 00:22:55,220
cares about other individuals and how they can get smarter. I've never been scared of anyone

251
00:22:55,220 --> 00:23:00,000
kind of taking my job. The only reason is because I figured if someone took it, just like a great

252
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,920
sports player, then it would force me to work harder and learn new things and keep going on.

253
00:23:04,300 --> 00:23:10,620
So I think we're in a world where it's going to feel bad for people who are going to think things

254
00:23:10,620 --> 00:23:14,640
should come to them. They might be entitled. They may have believed something they heard.

255
00:23:15,140 --> 00:23:19,320
But once you get through the realization and you're young and you have to fight through it,

256
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:24,640
I do believe that it's human instinct when the pressure is on for people to stand up and figure things out.

257
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,000
You've never had a better time to make money because of artificial intelligence.

258
00:23:28,460 --> 00:23:41,340
And I think if people will be patient with Bitcoin and just realize that the advantage for them is that Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset going to $50 trillion, $100 trillion.

259
00:23:41,340 --> 00:23:44,540
I don't know what the endgame is, but it's not going to stop going up.

260
00:23:44,620 --> 00:23:57,400
And whether it comes from a transfer of wealth or whether it comes from people fighting back in kind of this fourth turning revolution where they're looking for alternatives, I still think younger people have a better chance of benefiting from that from older, wealthy people.

261
00:23:58,260 --> 00:24:06,040
Yeah, I had some interesting insight into how Gen Z is saying it.

262
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,880
Long story short, I spoke at Penn last week on a panel at the Penn Republicans Club.

263
00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:17,820
uh, about Bitcoin with, uh, with a few other, um, Bitcoiners here in Philadelphia. It was great

264
00:24:17,820 --> 00:24:23,200
enticing conversation. The students were very, uh, intrigued and asking good questions. One of

265
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:28,500
them actually followed up with me. We hopped on a call last night and he's studying finance,

266
00:24:28,500 --> 00:24:34,240
looking to get into investment banking and asked me like, what should I do, uh, after school? And

267
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:40,080
I told him study Bitcoin, study AI, don't be afraid to mistake, to make mistakes. Don't feel

268
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:44,520
like you need to actually figure out what you want to do for your whole life right out of college

269
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:52,340
we live in this crazy time and i think it's just be adaptable and try to use all this stuff and

270
00:24:52,340 --> 00:24:57,280
know as much as possible but it is it was a hard question because kids like 2021

271
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:04,460
going to intern at goldman like what should i do i'm like number one congrats on that

272
00:25:04,460 --> 00:25:10,780
you're much more successful than I was at your age in college. But I don't know, it's weird times.

273
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,980
You just got to try to keep a grasp on things as they're accelerating forward.

274
00:25:16,180 --> 00:25:20,960
See, the funny thing is once I left the conferences that I used to go to, which I,

275
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:26,360
I mean, I stopped, I stopped really going to them probably about seven, eight years ago.

276
00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:31,560
And I would just go out to Silicon Valley or go to Singularity University or someplace where I'd

277
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:40,940
be learning. But because of the relationships that I've built in crypto and speaking at conferences,

278
00:25:40,940 --> 00:25:47,920
I've had the chance to meet more and more people who have taken control of their finances and kind

279
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:54,000
of figured out this balance between a job, what it is, why you have to do it, how you choose that

280
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:59,160
job, but then how you supplement your income both through Bitcoin and through financially being aware

281
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:04,960
of trading and things like that. So one of the things that I made the decision, which I'll start

282
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:12,360
rolling out at the beginning of next year, since you watch my videos, I mean, I hate to tell people

283
00:26:12,360 --> 00:26:19,420
this, but I probably spend six to seven plus hours a day in one of the LLMs, if not all of them.

284
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:26,540
Before we got on here, I'm writing a paper for 22V on CoreWeave. CoreWeave reported earnings

285
00:26:26,540 --> 00:26:33,840
this morning. Stock was down 15% when we started this. And on the call, they said they had insatiable

286
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:39,860
demand. They talked about endless demand for artificial intelligence in their business,

287
00:26:40,100 --> 00:26:44,340
and they had to lower their CapEx numbers. And the reason they had to lower their CapEx numbers

288
00:26:44,340 --> 00:26:50,560
was from bottlenecks. So I've started writing about what this means for the investment side

289
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,880
for next year and the way that I think investors are going to have to change their playbook from

290
00:26:54,880 --> 00:27:00,840
this year to next year. Everyone thinks when it comes to trading, there's some kind of like science

291
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:05,140
that you need to have an advanced degree. And that's not the case. You have all the information

292
00:27:05,140 --> 00:27:09,500
you need in artificial intelligence. So what I'm going to do is basically create a video series,

293
00:27:09,700 --> 00:27:16,240
which will show people how I go from a podcast or an earnings report down to ideas, how that turns

294
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:28,900
into other ideas And then if you sitting at home trying to trade I think the great thing about going out to these conferences and talking to younger people that have been successful when I say younger people it people generally in their 30s at this point but also some in their late 20s

295
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:36,340
And what they've realized is, number one, because the government is debasing everything, the stock market goes up 80 percent of the time.

296
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:43,020
So the odds are in your favor. You don't get those kind of odds at Vegas. You don't get those odds at the racetrack.

297
00:27:43,020 --> 00:28:04,240
And so it's hedge funds and it's people like that that are cynical because they have more money to lose. But the reality is they have to keep doing it and there's no way to get around it. So if you want to go make some extra money, learn how to trade, put a process in place, find the names that are out there that are doing well before the hedge funds go find them. But even if they do find them, they can't ride them the same way.

298
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:09,480
And so I believe there's a way to go through and use AI to figure out your finances.

299
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,680
And that gets back to the point that you made to the kid at Penn.

300
00:28:13,580 --> 00:28:18,340
Learning artificial intelligence is actually just using it every day.

301
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:23,060
Once you use it every day and you start getting your brain trained on, I wonder if I could

302
00:28:23,060 --> 00:28:23,880
do this and that.

303
00:28:24,120 --> 00:28:25,480
And the answer is generally yes.

304
00:28:25,660 --> 00:28:29,220
I wonder if there's any new things that AI can do that I could build today.

305
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:29,920
Yes.

306
00:28:29,940 --> 00:28:31,340
The answer is always yes.

307
00:28:31,340 --> 00:28:33,640
And if it's not today, it'll be tomorrow.

308
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:38,040
and the more that you spend time, and I've seen it with my own son, who's a sophomore in college,

309
00:28:38,380 --> 00:28:43,960
his ability to pick up things and build things now is off the charts. And it's solely by using

310
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:48,220
it every day. So the people that are listening out there that have kids that are at the age now,

311
00:28:48,220 --> 00:28:53,220
that maybe they're in high school, I would really get your kids to spend the time on it. And of

312
00:28:53,220 --> 00:28:59,420
course, when watch my video on Sunday and they can see how I'm using it, at least learn a couple

313
00:28:59,420 --> 00:29:05,340
things right now. Well, I think I know the answer to this series of questions, but I think it's

314
00:29:05,340 --> 00:29:09,960
important for the audience to hear it straight from you. But what would you say to the skeptics

315
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:15,600
who say these LLMs, they hallucinate, they're not reliable, you chat GVT, just have to stop giving

316
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:22,180
medical and legal advice. And yes, it seems like all is well and good and that demand is insatiable.

317
00:29:22,180 --> 00:29:28,320
But if you pull up the chart of the interdealings between Microsoft, OpenAI, NVIDIA,

318
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,880
core weave where maybe it seems like it's just an Enron like round robin.

319
00:29:34,340 --> 00:29:41,440
I mean, the answer would be funny if I give the answer that you actually thought was in your head.

320
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:50,420
My father, when I was very young and I'm going to say I was five, so I grew up Catholic.

321
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,860
My mother sang in the choir. I you know, my kids went to Catholic school.

322
00:29:54,860 --> 00:30:00,320
my father was an atheist and my father believed in nothing. And I mean, when I mean nothing,

323
00:30:00,500 --> 00:30:06,280
he believed in nothing. And one thing he said to me that I've used in almost every speech I've given

324
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:11,560
in public is he said to me, do not believe a single thing any human being says to you.

325
00:30:11,780 --> 00:30:16,860
It is not a fact. It is someone's opinion. So when you get back to hallucination,

326
00:30:16,860 --> 00:30:23,100
And LLMs are far more accurate than human beings are.

327
00:30:23,220 --> 00:30:27,260
I have yet to meet a human being that doesn't tell me a story about something that I don't

328
00:30:27,260 --> 00:30:28,300
go back and fact check.

329
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,840
And when I go fact check a human, I go fact check in LLMs.

330
00:30:32,260 --> 00:30:36,860
If an LLM gives me an answer, I'll take it into another LLM and check and ask if there's

331
00:30:36,860 --> 00:30:38,100
anything that's wrong in there.

332
00:30:38,860 --> 00:30:41,560
They've gotten way past the hallucination point.

333
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:49,240
If you pay for the highest service, if you use thinking where it slows it down, you're going to get less and less.

334
00:30:49,660 --> 00:30:53,200
But it would be a mistake for anyone who's accumulating knowledge.

335
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,100
Because when I ask you, where do you accumulate knowledge from?

336
00:30:56,740 --> 00:31:00,320
Well, LLMs accumulate knowledge from the same place that human beings do.

337
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:01,820
We all learn from something.

338
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:06,400
Our formative years are just like a training model in terms of an LLM.

339
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:17,600
So I just think the people that have focused their attention on looking for negatives, the analogy I've given is you don't want to wait too long.

340
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:27,360
And the way that you hear that is if you have a serious medical condition and the doctor says you should take this drug and you ask, well, what are the side effects?

341
00:31:27,500 --> 00:31:30,400
All the things you mentioned are the side effects with that AI.

342
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:37,400
I'm telling people if they don't use AI today, they are basically killing themselves in the

343
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:37,860
work world.

344
00:31:38,140 --> 00:31:39,920
They will have no chance of catching up.

345
00:31:40,260 --> 00:31:43,880
This is not a tool that you can all of a sudden just jump on and go through it.

346
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:44,820
It takes reps.

347
00:31:45,260 --> 00:31:48,060
It's just like cooking and using a knife or anything else.

348
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,560
If you want to get very, very good at it, you have to use it all the time.

349
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,820
And all I hear when people talk about the negatives are excuses as to why they don't

350
00:31:56,820 --> 00:31:57,480
want to use it.

351
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:02,580
and what about the the sort of inner dealing between these companies

352
00:32:02,580 --> 00:32:09,180
i mean it wouldn't be happening if there were more companies that had the money to actually do

353
00:32:09,180 --> 00:32:13,380
the build out but part of the issue is the concentration i mean we hear all the time about

354
00:32:13,380 --> 00:32:19,040
how concentrated the market is uh if the market wasn't concentrated bitcoin wouldn't be at the

355
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:24,560
level it is like i this is very circular for people to hear from me but the reason that i

356
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:29,860
ended up believing in Bitcoin is not for the reasons that everyone talks about. Every time I

357
00:32:29,860 --> 00:32:34,260
hear someone on one of these shows say, well, the dollar is going to weaken and that's why Bitcoin

358
00:32:34,260 --> 00:32:40,080
is going to go up. I made a reference, which I've never talked about on one of these podcasts.

359
00:32:40,380 --> 00:32:45,100
In fact, you'll be the first one to go. But because I wrote about it in my sub stack,

360
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,940
Michael Milken is one of the smartest people that I've had the privilege to sit in a room with and

361
00:32:49,940 --> 00:32:55,400
have a conversation with and brainstorm. And he and I were in his library in California,

362
00:32:55,400 --> 00:33:02,560
and we were having a long macro conversation about the future and debating. And I kept harping on the

363
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:08,120
fact that I thought the dollar was going to weaken. And this was back in 2019-ish. And I always

364
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,660
remember that he basically looked at me and he finally kind of raised his voice. He said,

365
00:33:12,660 --> 00:33:19,120
you're not getting it. The dollar is not a currency. The dollar is a belief. And if you

366
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:26,000
opened up the borders to everyone on the planet, and they had one day to come inside the border and

367
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:31,500
be a citizen that day, we'd have 7 billion people in America tomorrow. And there was truth in what

368
00:33:31,500 --> 00:33:36,700
he said. And it made me believe at that point that all of the stories that I heard about Bitcoin,

369
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:44,220
the debasing and all this, it's all true, meaning it is causing people to lose money gradually over

370
00:33:44,220 --> 00:33:50,780
time through inflation relative to the power of buying stuff. We can see it with the socialist

371
00:33:50,780 --> 00:33:55,260
revolt that's happening. This is not something new. This has been going on. But where Bitcoin

372
00:33:55,260 --> 00:34:00,880
has benefited from this is the reason the white paper came in in the first place. Governments

373
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:06,940
have been doing this for a long time. It is meant to keep the debt going and to keep avoiding pain.

374
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:12,000
And the longer you go for avoiding pain, the more that you create the issue. So I don't believe

375
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:17,140
Bitcoin strength is about the dollar weakening. I don't believe it's about the debt at the end of

376
00:34:17,140 --> 00:34:22,140
the day. I believe it's about exponential innovation. And exponential innovation is

377
00:34:22,140 --> 00:34:27,360
upon us right now. So AI and the whole growth and everything that's happening with these circular

378
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:32,440
deals, they're all part of the concentration that's happening. There's seven companies winning.

379
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:39,040
There's 493 companies losing. There's 10% of people in the country that are wealthy.

380
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:44,740
And then there's 90 percent that are struggling in some form to make ends meet.

381
00:34:45,060 --> 00:34:47,540
70 percent of the country lives paycheck to paycheck.

382
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,640
So this is not an economy or anything that is there.

383
00:34:50,780 --> 00:34:56,060
So if only the wealthy people are exchanging things, everyone should remember, I forget

384
00:34:56,060 --> 00:35:01,500
how many hundreds of millions of Bitcoin holders there are at this point, but I think 10,000

385
00:35:01,500 --> 00:35:03,080
own about 33 percent.

386
00:35:03,300 --> 00:35:06,120
So even Bitcoin is concentrated in terms of its wealth.

387
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:20,640
So to have distribution, you need to have something that isn't happening. But the good thing is the circular deals are representation of why Bitcoin will continue to accelerate and go higher, because I don't believe any of those companies at the end of the day are worth the money that they're going.

388
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:29,940
This is a spending frenzy, which gives every individual AI, but those companies are not going to get the revenues that they should get from it, in my opinion.

389
00:35:30,100 --> 00:35:32,140
I do not believe they're, in the end, going to go.

390
00:35:32,240 --> 00:35:43,180
And I think when I was on your show the last time, the hot take moment that I had just talked about, which you wanted to talk about, was my belief that basically there'll be no public companies beginning in 2030.

391
00:35:43,700 --> 00:35:50,360
That all of them will basically be destroyed in some way, shape, or fashion by entrepreneurs and private companies.

392
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:56,120
And I still believe that's the case. It's because AI is gobbling up everything and capitalism is consuming itself.

393
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:04,700
well you mentioned the fact that we're on this exponential growth curve and it's crazy to

394
00:36:04,700 --> 00:36:10,480
think and believe that we're on the very we're still at the bottom of the curve and

395
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:18,540
to date over the last three years the sort of ai applications that have been the most popular

396
00:36:18,540 --> 00:36:24,520
obviously are the the llms with the chat and deep research um we're slowly but surely

397
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,560
or even not slowly, but quickly moving to the agentic phase.

398
00:36:28,660 --> 00:36:33,400
But you've been talking a lot about moving from the digital to the physical world with

399
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:34,060
robotics.

400
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:40,360
And I think if I'm putting it correctly, the way you view it, it's that we can't even

401
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:46,340
fathom the type of order of magnitude jumps that productivity is going to take when it

402
00:36:46,340 --> 00:36:50,960
goes from behind our computer screens and our phone screens and into the physical world.

403
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:58,580
yeah it's it's a concept that i think is lost on if you if you believe ai is a bubble now i don't

404
00:36:58,580 --> 00:37:03,240
know what you're going to think when there's humanoids actually i mean actually doing the

405
00:37:03,240 --> 00:37:09,320
work and what's happening to companies and i think you're starting to see this year will be the year

406
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:16,900
in 2026 that people are forced to focus on it partly because of elon musk and tesla and just

407
00:37:16,900 --> 00:37:25,720
the reality of robo taxis. You know, he's planning to have the safety driver outside of the car by

408
00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:31,960
the end of this year in Texas, in Austin. And Texas has already given him the ability to do

409
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:40,440
this throughout the state. Once that starts, I mean, the world changes overnight. That success

410
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:46,160
for him in terms of having the first humanoid, because it's a humanoid on wheels, interacting

411
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:52,320
with human beings, and this is different than Waymo because this is actually with a car that

412
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:58,180
is using vision, so it's interacting with the physical world as opposed to interacting with

413
00:37:58,180 --> 00:38:04,440
satellites or geofencing like Waymo is. It's a very different thing, and it will lead to

414
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:10,240
an acceleration in humanoids. We'll see Optimus released next year in probably factories and

415
00:38:10,240 --> 00:38:15,220
places, and he's talking about a reasonable amount of build-out next year and the following year.

416
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:22,540
So to your point, yeah, I don't think the productivity numbers could possibly be something that people can comprehend.

417
00:38:22,980 --> 00:38:26,740
This will have an impact to elections.

418
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:31,060
So for people who don't realize, I mean, the midterms are coming up next year.

419
00:38:31,180 --> 00:38:34,580
Then you'll have, obviously, a presidential election two years after that.

420
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,580
The labor situation and just humanoids and robo taxis.

421
00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:44,500
I mean, there's three million people that work in the U.S. with inside automobiles.

422
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:50,680
So you've got 3 million drivers when you combine both Uber and just truck drivers and everything that goes on.

423
00:38:51,140 --> 00:38:53,120
That disruption starts next year.

424
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:58,260
So you had strikes when Uber was moving into cities from the taxis.

425
00:38:58,600 --> 00:38:59,680
Those were going on.

426
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:09,080
So I think it's going to be a year to your point where productivity boom is a good thing, but not in the K-shaped economy when you have so many people that are already suffering.

427
00:39:09,460 --> 00:39:13,140
And this is just going to add to at least the anxiety, if not the jobs.

428
00:39:13,140 --> 00:39:21,480
yeah because you think about it uber doordash they've popularly become the second jobs that

429
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:26,580
people depend on i think they'll work during the day and for an hourly wage and then try to make

430
00:39:26,580 --> 00:39:31,600
some extra money by driving uber and that second option which is the first option for many people

431
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:38,020
as well is about to be undercut because i saw people sharing screenshots of the price of a

432
00:39:38,020 --> 00:39:42,220
robo taxi versus uber earlier this week and it's it's going to be undeniable as a consumer it's

433
00:39:42,220 --> 00:39:44,420
I'm like, do I want to pay twenty five dollars or five dollars?

434
00:39:45,240 --> 00:39:47,980
Yeah. And I don't think you can avoid it.

435
00:39:48,780 --> 00:39:54,500
You know, if you get into the whole red state, blue state and you think that they're going to regulate this in blue states.

436
00:39:55,340 --> 00:40:03,960
Your point is the one I've made repeatedly, which is if we've got an inflation problem in cities and the affordability is is the issue.

437
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:18,380
You can't have driverless robo-taxis be 60%, 70% less than an Uber inside New York City and not have the young people basically demand that it be there.

438
00:40:18,820 --> 00:40:20,260
You're going to have a lot of issues.

439
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:33,020
That's why I say the next five years are going to be an adjustment period that's going to be very, very challenging for people to deal with these headwinds that are coming when it comes to anxiety over labor.

440
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,740
shifting gears and thinking order of operations here

441
00:40:37,740 --> 00:40:42,500
you mentioned earlier there's no such thing as a dead gpu right now this is what

442
00:40:42,500 --> 00:40:52,680
nvidia open ai google meta claude anthropic are saying however there are dead gpus those are the

443
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:57,660
ones that can't be plugged in because the energy isn't there yeah how do we say this is the same

444
00:40:57,660 --> 00:41:08,960
order of operations to get to these end states that we discussing here we need way more energy capacity In your mind what is the current state of the energy build side of things

445
00:41:10,540 --> 00:41:13,880
I mean, Cor, we've highlighted some of it today.

446
00:41:13,980 --> 00:41:16,260
Now, theirs wasn't directly related to energy.

447
00:41:16,420 --> 00:41:19,820
It was to power shells, but the power shells are, you know,

448
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,620
some of the REITs and the build-out places.

449
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:26,240
It's going to be a problem.

450
00:41:26,240 --> 00:41:30,060
I don't think it's going to be a catastrophe.

451
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:38,060
I do think that the issue for next year is going because of the tariffs that went on this year.

452
00:41:38,180 --> 00:41:42,220
You have a lot of delays in terms of people not buying stuff.

453
00:41:42,620 --> 00:41:44,660
You've got transformer build out issues.

454
00:41:45,300 --> 00:41:51,960
If there's one thing about the tariffs that isn't appreciated by investors yet, it's the delays that you're mentioning.

455
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,560
So Oracle's mentioned delays.

456
00:41:54,560 --> 00:42:02,640
uh ge vinova has mentioned delays they've talked about transformers and uh

457
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:10,580
and gas turbines are a problem so i think to your point uh the the chips are there

458
00:42:10,580 --> 00:42:16,880
the build out will continue um it will be global so it's not just in the u.s and if we don't have

459
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:22,280
the power here we'll be using the chips in other places i do think next year is a year that you

460
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:27,040
want to be long energy. And I think you want to be long things that are related to manufacturing,

461
00:42:27,620 --> 00:42:33,920
kind of build out related to it. I've talked about PMIs, which are very important for the

462
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:38,040
market as a whole. I think they're going to do well. And one thing for people listening who are

463
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:45,560
trading, this bottleneck problem has a lot more implications for a part of the market that's done

464
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:51,440
extremely well. So I mentioned large cap names, but also Corwees that are names that have done

465
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,200
well with the trading community this year that are probably going to have some issues. Well,

466
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,840
I think you're going to have similar issues that are going to pop up for things like the nuclear

467
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:06,640
names, uranium, everything on that front. And it's not because anything has changed in terms of

468
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:12,280
nuclear is going to be a need. But I think what investors, particularly in the institutional side,

469
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:18,620
are going to be rewarding is earnings growth where revisions are not going down. And the problem is

470
00:43:18,620 --> 00:43:22,520
if CoreWeave is having to lower their numbers significantly.

471
00:43:22,700 --> 00:43:25,540
We're talking about CapEx Guide down 40%.

472
00:43:25,540 --> 00:43:29,000
If Oracle's saying they have capacity constraints,

473
00:43:29,100 --> 00:43:33,080
their stock has fallen from that 30% update that was historic.

474
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,020
They've given back the entire gain now.

475
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,980
I think you're just people have to start to shift gears.

476
00:43:38,140 --> 00:43:40,340
And I think it's going to be a little bit more of a boring year.

477
00:43:40,340 --> 00:43:43,780
And to your point, I think energy, energy, energy

478
00:43:43,780 --> 00:43:45,720
is going to be the focal point for next year.

479
00:43:46,500 --> 00:43:47,020
Yeah.

480
00:43:47,020 --> 00:43:50,120
Yeah. And that's the thing that surprised me.

481
00:43:53,740 --> 00:43:58,840
I've been in Bitcoin mining professionally for six years now.

482
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:04,000
And the meme within the mining industry has been capacity, capacity, capacity, build up, build up, build up.

483
00:44:04,060 --> 00:44:11,540
And it feels like there's been an over indexing on capacity expansion, which is happening at a good clip in certain parts of the country, Texas specifically.

484
00:44:11,860 --> 00:44:15,940
But it seems like while we're building on all this capacity, people have neglected transmission.

485
00:44:15,940 --> 00:44:27,540
And I know FERC dropped a report a couple of weeks ago basically highlighting, OK, we can expand the capacity, but we need to focus on transmission as well, which is something that many people have missed.

486
00:44:28,180 --> 00:44:28,200
Yeah.

487
00:44:29,720 --> 00:44:30,860
It's a big part of it.

488
00:44:30,980 --> 00:44:38,340
I mean, that's the issue is that the actual ability to take it from where it is and get it to the data centers is another issue.

489
00:44:38,860 --> 00:44:42,000
And those capacity issues are going to be there all next year.

490
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:49,140
And a lot of these companies, particularly when you get into the Bitcoin miners and Oracle as well, they're using a lot of debt to fund this.

491
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:53,280
And so the problem you run into is these are long term situations.

492
00:44:54,140 --> 00:44:56,580
It's not just about earnings now.

493
00:44:56,860 --> 00:44:58,460
It's not just about what's coming now.

494
00:44:58,540 --> 00:45:01,680
There's a bit of it, if not a lot of it, that's on spec.

495
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:03,720
And time is the issue.

496
00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:11,900
If it takes a year longer for the project to get to where it is, that's a very dangerous situation in this type of world.

497
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:29,080
And one of the reasons is, and I was saying this to someone today, when talking about some of the altcoins and getting into a discussion, and I briefly brought this up with you, this concept of time is really important when thinking about investments.

498
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,760
That's what made it ironic when they were floating around a 50-year mortgage thing.

499
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,180
It's like, OK, so let's get this thing.

500
00:45:35,260 --> 00:45:41,720
I'm talking about how a day is like what used to be a month and how a year is what used to be a decade.

501
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:46,080
And we're going to issue 50-year mortgages, which to me are like five times.

502
00:45:46,180 --> 00:45:49,940
So these are like 250-year mortgages in AI time.

503
00:45:50,700 --> 00:45:58,080
The time for a company to actually meet the numbers that they're going to have is much shorter.

504
00:45:58,740 --> 00:46:07,780
And so when you're taking out debt to fuel something, you're making a bet that there won't be a better solution to the problem with inside the next year and a half.

505
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,620
And I think that is a very dangerous thing in this.

506
00:46:10,620 --> 00:46:36,320
There's so many dollars that are being spent that are a bubble. Lots of this stuff. People are taking debt. And some of these companies will not actually be able to build out the stuff that they had. I'm not going to say it's going to be like Chinese ghost cities, but I'm going to say there's going to be a lot of data center build outs that don't get finished, that, you know, they'll find a better solution that doesn't involve the transmission lines and the whole build out that's going to take a lot of time.

507
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,280
So I just think that when people go through this, they have to think about time.

508
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:51,300
And every year, the investments to me that are going to be the best are the ones that you can guarantee, OK, I think this company is going to take their earnings from five to eight this year.

509
00:46:51,700 --> 00:46:58,680
Not a company that has their earnings at five and they're going to ratchet them down to four point eight this year, but they're going to be 10 next year.

510
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,600
I don't think the market's going to reward people like companies like that.

511
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:06,840
I think there's going to be a lot of them that are having the backlog and the constraints that you're referencing.

512
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:17,740
Do you think this time issue was underlying what OpenAI did last week when they sort of implicitly asked for a backstop from the U.S. government?

513
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,320
Yeah, it was taken a little bit out of out of context.

514
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:32,060
I saw the. I saw the transcript of the words and stuff, and I think she just made a really bad decision on a word.

515
00:47:32,060 --> 00:47:37,580
Everyone now in X and social media just jumps on anything that people say like it's gospel.

516
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,000
The numbers are huge.

517
00:47:42,180 --> 00:47:43,300
There's no way around it.

518
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:55,080
If I had to pick a company that was the most likely in mine, like I'll do a little early Kentucky Derby AI bubble fest and just give my favorite at this point.

519
00:47:55,080 --> 00:48:24,260
I think OpenAI shows all the signs of a company that's just desperate to do something for, I don't even want to say ego, but it's a little scary to me that when you have, it just, his responses to questions, the past history he had with kind of the mutiny that was going on, the fact that Masa's son is involved and he hasn't always been the best judge of when timing on things.

520
00:48:24,260 --> 00:48:29,880
I just get the impression that OpenAI may be the company that's fighting off more than they can chew.

521
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:38,280
And I understand they're doing what any company would do in their position, which is they have 800 million users they've dominated.

522
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:40,240
And you don't want to lose those users.

523
00:48:40,240 --> 00:48:43,540
So you have to find a way to monetize them.

524
00:48:43,720 --> 00:48:46,440
And to do that, he needs more compute, more power.

525
00:48:46,540 --> 00:48:50,460
He needs to be able to release more applications to get the revenues.

526
00:48:50,460 --> 00:49:00,660
But the reality is, I think the issues that are popping up with open AI just show how big of a risk they're taking and how on edge the company leaders are.

527
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:07,120
Yeah, his comments on the BG Squared podcast were a bit perplexed.

528
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,520
There are a lot of hubris in the response to Brad there.

529
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:19,240
I was at a dinner last week in Boston with, let's just say, a lot of portfolio managers that manage a lot of money.

530
00:49:19,240 --> 00:49:26,260
and we spent a decent amount of time on Sam Waltman's response to Brad Gerstner's question.

531
00:49:26,260 --> 00:49:32,220
And these guys are trained in, you know, in reading management.

532
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:38,960
And it was not a good look for anyone at the table in terms of the way he responded and then how he left later.

533
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:43,720
And I, like you, listened to the whole podcast, but we had a long conversation on it.

534
00:49:43,720 --> 00:49:53,180
So I think this this feeling of, you know, these kids are running a and I say kids because Sam Walton's not an old guy.

535
00:49:54,620 --> 00:49:58,740
One point four trillion dollars of needs to spend.

536
00:49:58,820 --> 00:50:04,780
That's a big number to give to to someone who hasn't proven to run a business before.

537
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:08,960
So I just think there'll be plenty of bad investments with inside there.

538
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:15,180
But that doesn't change the fact that AI itself is not a bubble and the benefits that are going to come more like on the productivity side.

539
00:50:15,300 --> 00:50:22,480
I just think people should shift their attention more to the productivity side and probably less to this speculative build outside.

540
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:24,460
Who do you think is best positioned?

541
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:30,320
I mean, on the LLM side, I think I think Google.

542
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:34,040
I like I like the way Demis Hassabis.

543
00:50:36,260 --> 00:50:38,880
Talks, I like the Google products.

544
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:45,980
on this, I think Gemini is the best model. So I think they have the resources. They're the only

545
00:50:45,980 --> 00:50:53,240
one that has a competitor to NVIDIA's GPUs. So the only one that doesn't depend on the GPUs.

546
00:50:53,240 --> 00:51:00,520
So if I had to guess, I would say Google. I think Tesla's best set up for the next stage

547
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:06,040
in the physical side. And I actually think that that's probably the most valuable that exists.

548
00:51:06,540 --> 00:51:14,960
If I had to say one thing, the reason NVIDIA is in the position it is, and this is for everyone who just wants to hear my take on Tesla.

549
00:51:15,820 --> 00:51:23,100
NVIDIA put themselves in a position where they have the scale capable of delivering the GPUs and they have a moat around the business.

550
00:51:23,100 --> 00:51:41,060
If anyone wants to kind of measure a true AI situation, if NVIDIA started to go down, that would say to me that we have a problem in AI investments because the stock is way too cheap for the moat that they have on their business.

551
00:51:41,060 --> 00:51:46,300
it's just way too cheap for the total revenues that are coming in the next five years or the

552
00:51:46,300 --> 00:51:52,400
total capex spend and what percent they get of that and how it's almost unthinkable for anyone

553
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:58,140
else to use them for any of their data center build outs because they've been doing it for so

554
00:51:58,140 --> 00:52:03,240
long they can do the size their clusters have worked in the size that they are it just it doesn't

555
00:52:03,240 --> 00:52:09,500
make sense but tesla and elon musk he's had this vision for i mean he laid this out 20 years ago

556
00:52:10,100 --> 00:52:11,620
He's built the scale.

557
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:13,180
I mean, I always joke with people.

558
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:19,220
I'm like, have you ever seen the Gigafactory in Nevada and just like looked at the size

559
00:52:19,220 --> 00:52:23,500
and realized how many football fields you could be playing in that thing?

560
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:28,760
And it's, you know, one of the fifth, I don't know, top five largest buildings on the planet.

561
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:30,520
That's like China style stuff.

562
00:52:30,660 --> 00:52:34,040
And he built this out a long time ago to make sure that he'd have the batteries,

563
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:37,320
all of the stuff that he has in Texas that he's built out.

564
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:44,020
So he just has a huge advantage on the autonomy side going forward that I don't think anybody can compete with.

565
00:52:44,020 --> 00:52:50,640
And so if you believe the TAM on robo taxis and you believe the TAM on humanoids, that's coming soon.

566
00:52:50,740 --> 00:52:52,780
I don't see anyone that can compete with them.

567
00:52:52,960 --> 00:53:00,660
So Google on the LLM side for me, but I would say Tesla is the biggest upside of any company by far.

568
00:53:01,220 --> 00:53:02,080
Well, I'm sure.

569
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:06,900
I'm pretty confident that you saw the trillion dollar package.

570
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:12,640
And then his response to, I forget which representative it was saying this should never exist.

571
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:17,120
But I think it was actually extremely important that he gave a response he did.

572
00:53:17,660 --> 00:53:24,260
But people look at the trillion dollar sort of bonus package if they hit certain KPIs and say, that's crazy.

573
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:34,060
But building on what we were saying earlier, if they can actually go out and successfully execute on RoboTaxi and Optimus,

574
00:53:34,060 --> 00:53:37,200
The TAM for those things is going to be enormous.

575
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:44,500
And it may sound crazy to people, but a trillion dollar options package is actually justified if he can execute on it.

576
00:53:45,860 --> 00:53:48,140
Again, the shareholders voted.

577
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:50,920
Those are his bosses.

578
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,220
They could have kicked him out.

579
00:53:53,300 --> 00:53:56,060
I mean, Sam Altman was close to that situation.

580
00:53:56,860 --> 00:54:00,300
And then it seems like Microsoft forced him to be back.

581
00:54:00,300 --> 00:54:03,780
I don't like

582
00:54:03,780 --> 00:54:06,580
the democracy we live in

583
00:54:06,580 --> 00:54:07,740
it's the country we live in

584
00:54:07,740 --> 00:54:09,200
I mean people got to have their vote

585
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:10,220
they got to have their say

586
00:54:10,220 --> 00:54:12,520
and in the end you got over 70% of the votes

587
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,080
it's their company

588
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:16,380
people don't have to own the stock

589
00:54:16,380 --> 00:54:16,980
and trust me

590
00:54:16,980 --> 00:54:19,020
the people that don't agree with the trillion dollar package

591
00:54:19,020 --> 00:54:20,080
they don't own the stock

592
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:22,660
so there's a lot of people

593
00:54:22,660 --> 00:54:24,440
I can tell you I've been shocked

594
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:26,860
in fact I say this all the time

595
00:54:26,860 --> 00:54:28,500
I'll say it again

596
00:54:28,500 --> 00:54:29,520
Tesla

597
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,060
is very close in market cap to Bitcoin.

598
00:54:33,580 --> 00:54:35,720
Bitcoin and Tesla are like two siblings.

599
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,960
The investment world and the traditional finance world

600
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:40,980
does not believe in Bitcoin.

601
00:54:41,300 --> 00:54:42,480
They do not believe in Tesla.

602
00:54:44,256 --> 00:54:49,816
I it's it's a fascinating combination. But those two things to me work hand in hand together.

603
00:54:49,816 --> 00:54:55,116
I believe they are the two best assets to own next year. And they are ones that have the same

604
00:54:55,116 --> 00:54:59,716
thing. There's no story for Bitcoin to convince people in the traditional finance world that it

605
00:54:59,716 --> 00:55:07,036
will ever work. And in the same way, people can't believe Tesla. So. Well, Bitcoin, I can I can sort

606
00:55:07,036 --> 00:55:11,936
of see more of it's like, OK, it's as far in digital currency does one thing. Digital gold

607
00:55:11,936 --> 00:55:14,716
It's sort of boring. Governments will never let it happen.

608
00:55:14,716 --> 00:55:21,576
And it's hard to see the wins that Bitcoin has had unless you're holding it and using it and watching it build out.

609
00:55:21,636 --> 00:55:23,436
But I feel like Tesla is way more tangible.

610
00:55:23,856 --> 00:55:32,616
And not only Tesla, but you look at XAI, X, SpaceX, everything he's been able to execute on over the last two decades.

611
00:55:32,816 --> 00:55:36,756
And I was like, how could you not acknowledge that there is something here?

612
00:55:36,756 --> 00:55:43,176
yeah i i guess i agree but there's two things that you're leaving out one is the valuation

613
00:55:43,176 --> 00:55:48,276
between the two is the same to them meaning when you throw a valuation and it's like if tesla was

614
00:55:48,276 --> 00:55:52,756
trading at five dollars a share then people would be interested they don't like it because of the

615
00:55:52,756 --> 00:56:00,216
valuation the size the second thing is and this is you know i mean this is kind of a hard thing

616
00:56:00,216 --> 00:56:07,256
for people to hear. But in the traditional finance world, if you've been successful enough

617
00:56:07,256 --> 00:56:14,096
to have an opinion that people care about on Tesla, you probably went to a really good school

618
00:56:14,096 --> 00:56:20,176
and you probably have a pretty big ego. And at some point you've said Tesla's a scam or Elon Musk

619
00:56:20,176 --> 00:56:25,296
is a scam. So you're also asking people to change their mind. And I'm just telling you from working

620
00:56:25,296 --> 00:56:28,096
around people like that for my entire career.

621
00:56:28,336 --> 00:56:30,536
It's not their specialty to admit they're wrong.

622
00:56:31,216 --> 00:56:31,236
Yeah.

623
00:56:31,636 --> 00:56:50,434
Well as it pertains to that specific politician we end on this topic because I think it important to bring up It seems clear to me and I written I wrote a newsletter about it last week the United States the political atmosphere as such everybody being driven to the polar ends

624
00:56:50,514 --> 00:56:55,014
You have obviously Mom Donnie, the Democratic Socialist in New York.

625
00:56:55,014 --> 00:57:03,474
And then you have people who don't think Trump is being as right wing enough and are looking for a strong man to fix the economic issues.

626
00:57:03,474 --> 00:57:14,153
is when I look forward, I think of impediments to this sort of advancement in technology driven by AI, advancement of Bitcoin.

627
00:57:15,053 --> 00:57:22,234
One thing outside of energy that I can think stopping is just like social incohesion in the United States.

628
00:57:22,234 --> 00:57:31,073
So this hits a boiling point. And that's why I mentioned I was happy that Elon stuck up for himself in that thread by quote tweeting that politician,

629
00:57:31,073 --> 00:57:34,954
because I think he put it out in simple terms like,

630
00:57:35,153 --> 00:57:39,113
hey, we're supposed to live in a capitalist democratic society.

631
00:57:39,113 --> 00:57:44,053
If you want good things, the people that bring you the good things need to be rewarded.

632
00:57:44,573 --> 00:57:50,353
And that message is being completely lost these days

633
00:57:50,353 --> 00:57:53,894
as people, due to the effects of the K-shaped economy,

634
00:57:53,894 --> 00:58:00,053
are looking for solutions that can help alleviate their financial pain.

635
00:58:00,053 --> 00:58:05,133
I've talked a lot about this

636
00:58:05,133 --> 00:58:07,174
in other podcasts

637
00:58:07,174 --> 00:58:09,693
but I'll bring it up here

638
00:58:09,693 --> 00:58:11,793
if people haven't spent time with Joseph Schumpeter

639
00:58:11,793 --> 00:58:15,213
and go into LLFs

640
00:58:15,213 --> 00:58:18,213
and just ask for a two page

641
00:58:18,213 --> 00:58:21,693
write up on the summary of his views on creative destruction

642
00:58:21,693 --> 00:58:24,674
he called this entire thing

643
00:58:24,674 --> 00:58:28,213
and he said eventually capitalism will

644
00:58:28,213 --> 00:58:29,474
consume itself

645
00:58:29,474 --> 00:58:41,851
and socialism will rise and there will be unrest And you know the only thing he didn write about is the creative destruction eventually getting to the democratization of intelligence which will lower

646
00:58:41,851 --> 00:58:47,611
all prices to zero. And that's kind of the end game for me, is that that's why when I talk about

647
00:58:47,611 --> 00:58:51,711
abundance, it's something I believe in. And part of it's from going to Singularity University as

648
00:58:51,711 --> 00:58:56,611
often as I did when it mattered the most, when I was trying to answer a question of

649
00:58:56,611 --> 00:59:00,831
how are we going to continue to grow if population is not going to grow?

650
00:59:00,831 --> 00:59:04,031
And if we're coming out of the great financial crisis with all this debt,

651
00:59:04,751 --> 00:59:10,751
there's no way. The pensions, the liabilities that we have, Social Security,

652
00:59:11,251 --> 00:59:16,651
these are problems that are honestly unfixable. It's why there's always kind of a debt scare that

653
00:59:16,651 --> 00:59:22,711
comes in. So I had to come to a solution of what is the end game? Because I know one thing,

654
00:59:22,711 --> 00:59:36,231
And the human race continues on. We're not going to have, you know, if there's less people in poverty than ever before, and if life extension is going to start to accelerate, how does that solve itself?

655
00:59:36,231 --> 00:59:55,951
And that was what brought me to Bitcoin at the end, is a belief that as things become free, as we get to the point that the cost of all goods and making all things in 15 years, 20 years, not in five years, but down the road, that will normalize things.

656
00:59:55,951 --> 01:00:00,091
and politics and things like that. Governments don't fix problems. Their job is to keep from

657
01:00:00,091 --> 01:00:05,951
the chaos from ensuing. They don't fix anything. They never have at any time I've heard. A leader

658
01:00:05,951 --> 01:00:11,871
could come to change things. I needed some guiding principle that made me believe that it was good to

659
01:00:11,871 --> 01:00:17,471
be optimistic. I mean, I have a hat on that says half full. I'm a really optimistic person who's

660
01:00:17,471 --> 01:00:23,291
happy, loves life. Like I said, I love nature. I love Maine. I love skiing. I love all of that.

661
01:00:23,291 --> 01:00:42,248
I needed an endgame that actually made me feel that it wouldn end with a nuclear bomb in a war or with people killing themselves out in the street And I do believe that that going to come from artificial intelligence that that going to come from super intelligence So I kind of left it Marty where I always say Bitcoin is the purest

662
01:00:42,248 --> 01:00:49,568
AI investment or trade. People always respond the same way. I don't get it. I don't see the

663
01:00:49,568 --> 01:00:55,409
connection. And I go, I've been hurt. I've been told that my entire life. I sometimes maybe

664
01:00:55,409 --> 01:01:00,788
overthink things. I get a little too deep on some things. But the reality is, if you really think

665
01:01:00,788 --> 01:01:04,648
about what Bitcoin represents, if you think about what the internet represents, if you think about

666
01:01:04,648 --> 01:01:11,068
what mobile represents, they all represent a growth and decentralization and democratization,

667
01:01:11,208 --> 01:01:17,389
not with inside the wealthy place, but the globe. And that's why I wrote the paper that I did this

668
01:01:17,389 --> 01:01:22,188
week about living in Brazil and seeing true poverty and living with it and going to weddings

669
01:01:22,188 --> 01:01:27,928
with people that were there in the favelas and actually seeing it. It's a very different

670
01:01:27,928 --> 01:01:32,309
situation outside of here. And I think the democratization of intelligence is going to

671
01:01:32,309 --> 01:01:36,668
lead to a better world for everybody. It's just going to take some time. And during that time,

672
01:01:37,748 --> 01:01:42,088
people better learn AI and learn how to embrace it and use it, because that's the key to getting

673
01:01:42,088 --> 01:01:47,748
happy is to make sure that you have some optimistic side to you. Well, let's end it on an optimistic

674
01:01:47,748 --> 01:01:53,628
note, Jordy, thank you for your time and thank you for doing what you do. Like I said, it's been

675
01:01:53,628 --> 01:01:59,409
part of my weekly routine the Sunday morning before church, watching the videos if they're out

676
01:01:59,409 --> 01:02:03,708
before 1030 mass and going and reflecting on them. So thank you.

677
01:02:04,668 --> 01:02:10,548
I appreciate that, Marty. I liked me before God. So it was good. You get to go spend your time in

678
01:02:10,548 --> 01:02:16,588
church. I get to get you all teed up, get you in a happy mood, and then you can go off and get some

679
01:02:16,588 --> 01:02:19,088
enlightenment as opposed to just some market information.

680
01:02:20,648 --> 01:02:23,248
Well, thank you. And, um, hope you enjoy your day.

681
01:02:23,288 --> 01:02:24,228
We'll do this again at some point.

682
01:02:24,889 --> 01:02:25,988
I look forward to it. Thanks.

683
01:02:26,448 --> 01:02:27,288
All right. Peace and love freaks.