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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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We talk about a Fed just gone nuts.

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All the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

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In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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Sorry, I don't fuck up your podcast.

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And here's Dave, the most undependable podcast guest in the planet.

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I don't know. I think you're pretty dependable.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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How are we doing? Error 404.

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Error 404, yeah.

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Great title for this year's.

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Well, I thought it was actually going to be an Error 404.

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I almost didn't write it.

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I was very close to that.

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I quit several times.

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And there were a number of reasons potentially why I had computer problems in the summer, which made it hard.

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I find the world profoundly confusing, taking my shoes off in case you're wondering.

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Actually, I podcast my underwear just to feel special.

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And then I got into it with a Zionist

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That was no fun and that sucked ball

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No, it's never fun

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No, those guys are punks

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It does feel like everything's breaking though

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It does, it really does

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I'm bummed, I'm not bummed

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But Nick Shirley coming out

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I think on the 23rd

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Probably too late to sneak into the letter

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But I think the year ended with a crescendo of fraud being unearthed.

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What do you think of – who do you think he is?

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He's a front man, right?

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He didn't do that himself.

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I've seen the series.

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Yeah, apparently he was in the White House earlier this year.

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Yeah, right.

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That's suspicious, isn't it?

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Yeah.

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I think the memers – the 2024 election, I gave the memers huge credit for winning it because Trump was getting the crap kicked out of them.

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And the populace could just lose heart.

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And then Dillian, these guys would go in and come up with a meme and says, yeah, I'm voting for the hillbilly and the felon.

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Right. You go fantastic. Right.

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And so they just turned every single thing the Democrats did into a farcical mess.

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And so I give the memers credit for that election.

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And it's on level.

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But but they were probably on payroll.

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That was probably Trump figuring out.

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I got I got to get the memers.

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Yeah.

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I mean, there was an explicit part of that strategy with the podcast and stuff like that.

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Oh, yeah.

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Oh, yeah.

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The podcast strategy was explicit, but I think it was definitely implicit behind the scenes

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and maybe explicit to an extent in terms of tapping the memers on the shoulders explicitly.

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But implicitly, they know that people are going to watch these podcasts and put memes

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out there.

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Well, but I think they might have been on payroll, actually.

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You think so?

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I hope that's...

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Can you hear me?

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Wait a minute.

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Hold on.

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Hold on.

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Oh, God.

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Is something coming through to you too?

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No.

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Oh, I was all of a sudden getting a delayed feed.

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I did have Twitter spaces yesterday and all of a sudden it started playing.

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And I'm getting this voice.

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I go, wait a minute.

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Is that Logan in there?

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Where is that coming from?

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So I really don't think – I don't think it's – I'm not even sure we can possibly understand the world in a way that we used to think we did at least.

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I mean it was all predicted too, right?

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The signal to noise ratio is going to get completely out of whack.

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Actually, Carl Sagan predicted in the mid-90s, right about Netscape time, he said that we're going to get to the point where it's just the world's just going to be this mindless bunch of idiots because they're not going to know what's true.

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And so he really called it.

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Nikola Tesla called the internet in 1926.

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He said the world's going to be surrounded by this big basically global brain.

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Yeah.

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And how do you anchor into reality, if at all?

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Well, I saw a meme video. Is there still a meme? Are the videos memes?

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Good question.

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Depends how long it is, I guess.

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Right. Maybe we're living in a meme.

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I saw one that someone posted, and he said, all I did was go to chat GPT and said, watch all the videos of person A and person B and make me a funny meme video.

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And it was like a minute long, and it was so good.

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And I'm going, oh, you got to be here. So I'm going to try like I'm going to try like I got to ease into it carefully to find out if there's some trigger.

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But first, I'll start with like Lindsey Graham, give it a big sloppy wet one to Netanyahu.

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I want to see if I can get that. If that then we're going to go into sort of the M, you know, our zone and see if I get Lindsey doing other things with Netanyahu.

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and then I realized that the fact that I could

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potentially do that means that we're all

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toast

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we're all toast

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there could be a Marty Bent

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Dave Colum doggy style meme

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right?

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now that you

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be careful what you

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utter into existence

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it just happened

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I just did it

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if you do that I will hunt you down

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and I will put Lindsey Graham on you

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Yeah. Well, and this is something you talked about in the letter, too. It's like these technologies are double-edged swords, but they really accentuate the golden age of propaganda, too.

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I'm hoping they're double-edged. I'm worried it's just one edge.

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AI, do you use AI more than Google now? Do you skip Google?

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Yeah.

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So Google at one point looked like it was an insurmountable moat, although I argued with a colleague that that was not true.

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his argument was they have 2 million servers

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like okay a hedge fund can buy that

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so that just doesn't cut it

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but they certainly look like they had a moat

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now they're fighting for their lives

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Google could be the Yahoo

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of the modern era

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remember when we searched with Yahoo?

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yeah

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I mean it was very young but I do remember

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and so now Google could be the next Yahoo

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so I go straight to Grok

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instead of Google

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Yeah, I think Google does.

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I think they're positioned well for AI.

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Gemini is really good.

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I use Anthropics models.

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I use Claude because we're actually like automated.

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I can't even keep up with all of these.

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I know the name Claude, but I've never – I've really not begun to explore AI.

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What I do not want to do is use it to create content.

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I still want to use it as a replacement for Google.

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I don't create images with it.

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I think the images are soulless.

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One of the things I've noticed is

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I'll read

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You know how the Google art

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The AI art at first was kind of cute

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Now it's just soulless crap

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It's just slop

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Although watching Maduro

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And Trump

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In their underwear doing a dance

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In the Oval Office

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I've got to admit it was entertaining

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But

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But

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But

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I

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I think the problem is that I'll open an article that I think I ought to care about, and I found myself bored.

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And I'm wondering if it's possible that my subconscious is detecting the lack of humanity because it's an AI document.

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That I can't consciously see it's an AI.

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They're supposedly your tells, but they tend to be formulaically written, very well organized.

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Let me find the title to this YouTube video. I actually watched it the other day. It's put out by, where is it? I have it in this chat.

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How many videos have we done?

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This is probably our seventh or eighth, Logan.

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And are you real?

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I am real. I think I am.

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The Art of the Problem YouTube channel, they released a video, I believe, last week or the week before called the AI Paradox.

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And what you're describing is like they go into sort of the math behind LLMs.

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And if you have like a distribution of potential past that one can go through a human who has the ability to create new creative thought has almost infinite past where LLMs, since they're trained off of thought that's already been thought uttered and put in the text on the web.

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They have very narrow paths, which they can actually follow.

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Yeah, one time when I was in a zero hedge debate against Steve Keen, moderated by Fleck and Sine, I made reference to squeegeeing the drippings off the floor of the Internet.

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But the problem is, so someone took a handwritten, not 10 digits, zero to nine, handwritten, and then put it into an AI program to recursively recreate it somehow.

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And they not only degenerated, but they became identical.

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And then I realized I had this interesting epiphany.

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The markets now are really computers recursively responding to computers, and one could make the argument that it is now generating just complete slop.

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Yeah. Yeah. I can totally see that.

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And that's like the – I forget what they call it in the AI, like the problem once you get to the point where there's no new data being introduced to the LLMs and they're just using each other's slop as training data.

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It completely degenerates to your point.

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So I have to teach a double course load this spring. And I used to get fantastic scores. And then we entered the era where anything you say offends someone and they think that that's just unacceptable.

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And then that same era occurred when when the students thought that they had the right.

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I don't think they have the right even to email anyone that they can get to.

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Right. And so they would complain to the dean or to the chair or to to the provost or to the president.

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Right. And so I stood up in front. I started sitting in front of the class and say, look, if you Google me, I'm Google toxic, completely Google toxic.

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I fought two union movements and they smeared the shit out of me.

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So you read about me. I'm just Mao on steroids. Right. And it's now it's even worse.

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So and and I said, you know, you could send the chair an email. You could complain.

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You could send the dean. You could send the president. But you could also just walk in my office and we can chat.

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We'll both be better off for it. And and and then the next day, the chair walks in my office, said he got a complaint.

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so I the next day in class I said look you know I don't quite know what to say now someone

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complained okay I don't remember saying anything offensive but I do open up with the description

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of why I'm toxic and the chair at one point said well why not just start and I said you don't know

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what it's like to walk into class with with an internet that says now now it includes you want

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you want a good one now it includes the president of the National Jewish Association who I've seen

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with Trump on stage called me a Holocaust-denying Nazi.

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I called him a pig fucking liar after that.

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I didn't actually call him a pig fucking liar.

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I once had a lawyer tell me, he said, don't call anyone something that's provable or disprovable.

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So call him a douchebag.

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Call him a weasel.

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Don't call him a liar.

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And so what I said was I would never call you a pig fucking liar because I could not defend that statement entirely.

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And then I suggested that you take up a hobby like Bukkake, like Harvey Weinstein.

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And then I said that alternatively we could have lunch or maybe you could.

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And then I put a meme up that says go fuck yourself.

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And why was he calling you a holocaust liar?

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Because they were going after Tucker and I got caught in the crossfire.

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So I did battle with Ted Cruz and Laura Loomer and Mark Levin and Victor Davis Hanson really appalled me.

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I thought he was OK guy. He obviously is a whore.

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Excuse me. I should use a more vague term.

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He obviously is in cahoots with the Christian Zionists.

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And I'm not anti-Semitic. I'm not even anti-Israel, although I'm getting closer to the latter because I'm just so fed up with their shit.

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They've lost me, put it that way

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I was totally agnostic, saying, look, I'm not getting into that fight

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Fight amongst yourselves

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And then they picked a fight, so I said, okay, okay, whatever

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But it took me a while to stop staggering

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The blows had me sort of reeling

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And it's a little disquieting to watch a senator stand on stage and hammer you

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Yeah, it is very odd, the relationship between the politicians and the nation of Israel, specifically

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It's not odd, it's very explainable

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They're owned

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They're all owned

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And that's what bothers me

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I don't have a problem with supporting Israel the country

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I have a problem with the fact that they're doing

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They're Israel first, America second

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Sorry guys, that's what it looks like

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And call me an anti-semi

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I'm not an anti-semi

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But you may be a pig fucker

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I'm sure you've seen the clip of

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Greenblatt, the ADL guy

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Talking about always monitoring, monitoring US citizens.

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Right. Right. And Larry Allison, there's a charmer. And so so you can make all sorts of arguments for supporting Israel. I don't like the ones being made.

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So I'm no longer a fan. I'm just you know, I think they whack Charlie Kirk.

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I think so

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yeah I think the evidence is pretty good

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put it this way I believe the evidence is

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very good that it wasn't that lone shooter

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crap I think the evidence is very

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good that Eric is a wackadoodle of

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a higher order

238
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and so then all of a sudden

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00:14:53,460 --> 00:14:55,660
you go I don't even need to know the plot

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00:14:55,660 --> 00:14:57,700
to know that some big guys

241
00:14:57,700 --> 00:14:59,780
are up to no good and then you say okay

242
00:14:59,780 --> 00:15:01,720
so the wife's laying in a puddle

243
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,700
of blood in the garage the husband

244
00:15:03,700 --> 00:15:05,780
sitting on the couch drinking a beer who are you going to talk

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00:15:05,780 --> 00:15:07,620
to first? You have no evidence

246
00:15:07,620 --> 00:15:11,780
he did it, but you're going to sit his ass down under the bright lights and say, by the

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00:15:11,780 --> 00:15:14,040
way, we find your wife in the garage in a puddle of blood.

248
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Why do you think Charlie needed to be taken out?

249
00:15:20,020 --> 00:15:20,980
Interesting question.

250
00:15:21,100 --> 00:15:22,940
It might have even been a showcase.

251
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:24,680
It might have been saying, don't turn on us, right?

252
00:15:24,860 --> 00:15:28,220
It could have been they actually made sure that it looked bad.

253
00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:35,140
It could be, you know, it seems to me if it was really to win over the youth or deal with

254
00:15:35,140 --> 00:15:40,340
them because of the youth problem, they blew it because I think they've ended up looking

255
00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:40,620
to them.

256
00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:43,740
So there's two questions I keep asking over and over and over.

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00:15:44,740 --> 00:15:46,580
Did they blow the COVID story?

258
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,840
And did they blow the Gaza story?

259
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:58,700
So COVID, if their goal was to sort of optimize and get away with the stuff that we shouldn't

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00:15:58,700 --> 00:16:02,980
know about and make us think that they did the right thing, they blew it.

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00:16:03,100 --> 00:16:04,020
They completely blew it.

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00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:09,920
If anyone's listening to this, if you still trust modern medicine, you need a fucking CAT scan.

263
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,480
I consulted for Pfizer for 20 years.

264
00:16:12,540 --> 00:16:14,480
I'm not totally uneducated in this topic.

265
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,140
You need a CAT scan if you trust modern medicine now.

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00:16:18,260 --> 00:16:20,640
You need a CAT scan if you get another flu vaccine.

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00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:27,780
They don't do any good, and they can slip in a new technology, and you can find yourself in the ER with a heart attack.

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00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:29,720
You just don't know.

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00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:31,040
You don't know.

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00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,300
I mean objectively with the flu vaccine

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00:16:33,300 --> 00:16:35,700
They've had a negative efficacy

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00:16:35,700 --> 00:16:37,200
I think that's correct

273
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,200
I think

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00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,560
Have you read Moth in the Iron Lung?

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00:16:41,340 --> 00:16:41,720
No

276
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,340
You gotta read it

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00:16:43,340 --> 00:16:45,160
Once in a while I get a book

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00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,620
I go oh that's a must read book

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00:16:46,620 --> 00:16:47,500
Moth in the Iron Lung

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00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:49,900
The whole polio story is bullshit

281
00:16:49,900 --> 00:16:52,940
The entire polio story is bullshit

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00:16:52,940 --> 00:16:53,660
The Moth in the Iron Lung

283
00:16:53,660 --> 00:16:55,660
You can not believe it if you want

284
00:16:55,660 --> 00:16:56,780
But if you read that book

285
00:16:56,780 --> 00:16:57,940
You'll come out believing it

286
00:16:57,940 --> 00:17:00,920
It turns out it was arsenic poisoning

287
00:17:01,500 --> 00:17:02,200
From DDT?

288
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,780
Well, first it starts with arsenic, and then they went to DDT.

289
00:17:07,300 --> 00:17:09,620
Heard something this morning that rattled me a little bit.

290
00:17:09,740 --> 00:17:16,780
FDR got polio when he was 39, and the moth in the iron lung explains why the kids were so susceptible.

291
00:17:16,780 --> 00:17:23,540
So I don't quite know how FDR got it at 39, but what it does is the arsenic and the DDT rot your intestines,

292
00:17:23,740 --> 00:17:29,320
and that lets various pathogens, more than just one virus, get to your spinal cord,

293
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,500
because it goes right past your intestine.

294
00:17:32,620 --> 00:17:34,100
And so the kids were really susceptible

295
00:17:34,100 --> 00:17:36,200
because their spinal cord sticks out a little bit

296
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:37,980
in the young age brackets.

297
00:17:39,300 --> 00:17:42,860
And poliomyelitis was a paralysis.

298
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:43,880
It was just a symptom.

299
00:17:44,140 --> 00:17:44,880
That's all it was.

300
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,500
And at the exact same time they started spraying arsenic,

301
00:17:48,580 --> 00:17:50,500
in the exact same place in the world

302
00:17:50,500 --> 00:17:53,140
where they started spraying arsenic, polio showed up.

303
00:17:53,980 --> 00:17:55,720
And they started to sense it.

304
00:17:55,720 --> 00:18:00,940
And they were called anti-arcenicals or something.

305
00:18:01,060 --> 00:18:02,840
They had a name for them, just like in COVID.

306
00:18:03,540 --> 00:18:05,680
So the question is, did they blow the COVID story?

307
00:18:07,260 --> 00:18:09,100
They didn't blow the polio story.

308
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,500
The world still thinks polio was the greatest moment in modern medicine.

309
00:18:12,980 --> 00:18:14,400
I think it was a hoax.

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00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,380
I think people know it.

311
00:18:16,420 --> 00:18:19,520
But if you shoot down that story, then holy shit.

312
00:18:20,500 --> 00:18:20,620
Right?

313
00:18:20,660 --> 00:18:21,220
That's a narrative.

314
00:18:21,380 --> 00:18:25,220
That's the, you know, U.S. saved the world from tyranny in World War II narrative.

315
00:18:25,220 --> 00:18:27,680
You do not want to let that story go.

316
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,380
And I'm even willing to give them that one.

317
00:18:33,020 --> 00:18:34,780
And then I replayed a TED Talk.

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00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:35,220
I watched it.

319
00:18:35,300 --> 00:18:36,560
Holy shit, that makes sense now.

320
00:18:37,980 --> 00:18:43,240
And then the other question is, have they ever played the October 7th Israel story?

321
00:18:44,180 --> 00:18:45,760
They thought they had moral capital.

322
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,460
They didn't have anywhere near enough moral capital just for what they did.

323
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,420
But is it possible they just said, look, here's the deal.

324
00:18:54,420 --> 00:18:55,940
10 years from now, no one will remember.

325
00:18:56,660 --> 00:18:59,120
And we're going to have what we want if we don't give a shit.

326
00:18:59,700 --> 00:19:01,720
And we've done much worse as a nation.

327
00:19:01,820 --> 00:19:03,040
The United States has done much worse.

328
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,820
Well, then, I mean, did you see Pompeo on stage last week?

329
00:19:06,120 --> 00:19:06,400
No.

330
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:07,520
Talking about history.

331
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,760
Like, we need to make sure the history of October 7th is written by us.

332
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:12,600
Who's us?

333
00:19:13,340 --> 00:19:15,140
That's a great question.

334
00:19:15,260 --> 00:19:20,260
But it's, I don't know, it's just very flippant in how we've heard, like,

335
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,400
the history is written by the victors.

336
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,300
And who knows what the actual history is?

337
00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:25,840
Victor Davis Hanson, apparently.

338
00:19:26,120 --> 00:19:26,320
Yeah.

339
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,540
But he was saying, he was saying as it pertains to October 7th, like we're going to write the history.

340
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:33,560
There's not going to be.

341
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,500
Yeah, but I don't know who the we is.

342
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:36,060
And all that.

343
00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:36,320
Yeah.

344
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:37,320
Right.

345
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,900
And by the way, it is completely trivial to make the case that there was a stand on order.

346
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,100
That turned out to be the, I wrote about October 7th.

347
00:19:45,820 --> 00:19:47,360
I wrote a section on Israel.

348
00:19:47,360 --> 00:19:52,200
I left on the cutting floor because I was too punch drunk from fighting Levin and Ted Cruz.

349
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,840
so I wrote about it

350
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,880
I intended to and I thought oh you can kind of

351
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:58,600
tightrope walk along and you can do it

352
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,640
and if you do it right then no one will get mad

353
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,060
and then I go no they won't

354
00:20:02,060 --> 00:20:04,240
if I say I got gluten in my bagel they'll get mad

355
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,520
get over it

356
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,440
I don't care call me an anti-Semite

357
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,420
because my bagel's got gluten in it

358
00:20:10,420 --> 00:20:12,780
and so I wrote

359
00:20:12,780 --> 00:20:14,180
about it and it turns out

360
00:20:14,180 --> 00:20:16,580
you can make a compelling

361
00:20:16,580 --> 00:20:18,640
case that there was a stand on

362
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,400
order in Israel using Israeli

363
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,000
sources

364
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,640
exclusively Israeli sources

365
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,260
yeah I mean one of them

366
00:20:25,260 --> 00:20:27,140
is in the Bitcoin space now, Efret

367
00:20:27,140 --> 00:20:29,680
oh Efret, I've had a number of chats

368
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:30,140
with Efret

369
00:20:30,140 --> 00:20:33,360
and she was the first one

370
00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:35,680
boy did she have gonads the size of cantaloupes

371
00:20:36,500 --> 00:20:37,860
she stepped up

372
00:20:37,860 --> 00:20:39,180
like two days later and said

373
00:20:39,180 --> 00:20:40,500
this story is all wrong

374
00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:43,520
well the Egyptian intelligence

375
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:44,980
told Israel hey it's coming

376
00:20:44,980 --> 00:20:57,218
get out of the way there a problem here the guy who moved the concert to the border moved the troops away from the border By the way if I had asked you two years ago three years ago

377
00:20:57,218 --> 00:21:01,318
whatever, if I had asked you, Hamas drops 800 guys into Israel, how long

378
00:21:01,318 --> 00:21:04,378
would it take for Israel to clean up that mess? You would have said, what, five minutes?

379
00:21:05,138 --> 00:21:09,238
Yeah. I mean, someone described Israel as you can't walk 10 feet without seeing

380
00:21:09,238 --> 00:21:11,238
some young guy with an AR-15.

381
00:21:11,238 --> 00:21:14,938
that somehow Israel just blew it?

382
00:21:14,978 --> 00:21:17,818
There's tons of articles explaining how badly Israel blew it.

383
00:21:17,858 --> 00:21:18,778
No, they didn't.

384
00:21:19,578 --> 00:21:23,658
And once you get inside, you don't run around for eight hours rampaging.

385
00:21:25,138 --> 00:21:27,778
Yeah, that was the weird thing, the response.

386
00:21:28,018 --> 00:21:28,418
It's not weird.

387
00:21:29,578 --> 00:21:31,638
Well, do you believe the stats?

388
00:21:32,758 --> 00:21:34,778
If you want to call that a Holocaust denier,

389
00:21:35,098 --> 00:21:37,058
then I'm going to deny that Holocaust.

390
00:21:37,378 --> 00:21:38,418
You don't know the stats.

391
00:21:38,578 --> 00:21:39,878
It could be as bad as they say.

392
00:21:39,878 --> 00:21:41,678
It could be very little happened.

393
00:21:41,818 --> 00:21:48,958
There's all sorts of – it could be the hostages were living in a Motel 8 getting DoorDash, and they release them.

394
00:21:49,158 --> 00:21:51,998
You just don't know because the lying is so compelling.

395
00:21:53,358 --> 00:21:55,058
And again, I'm sure there's people who are pissed at me.

396
00:21:55,258 --> 00:21:55,758
Fuck you.

397
00:21:56,018 --> 00:21:57,198
I just don't care anymore.

398
00:21:57,418 --> 00:21:58,558
I do not care anymore.

399
00:21:59,838 --> 00:22:03,778
I mean you've been saying that for six years since we've been doing these episodes, maybe seven.

400
00:22:03,938 --> 00:22:04,778
I don't know what we should say.

401
00:22:04,778 --> 00:22:11,818
Well, but I've stayed off of Israel until a Canadian intelligence guy told me, you're trying to understand the world and you're ignoring Israel.

402
00:22:12,118 --> 00:22:14,098
You'll never figure it out if you don't pay attention.

403
00:22:14,258 --> 00:22:15,418
This is a guy who lived in Israel.

404
00:22:16,238 --> 00:22:18,358
And so he gave me some reading material.

405
00:22:18,518 --> 00:22:19,498
And I go, oh, shit.

406
00:22:19,998 --> 00:22:20,738
And so I read it.

407
00:22:20,738 --> 00:22:25,738
And, you know, Mearsheimer, Steve Walt, The Israel Lobby.

408
00:22:25,898 --> 00:22:27,438
That's a must read if you want to understand.

409
00:22:27,658 --> 00:22:28,158
It's a good story.

410
00:22:28,338 --> 00:22:31,338
A guy named Elon Pepe, who wrote a book.

411
00:22:31,838 --> 00:22:34,418
I-L-L-A-N-P-A-P-P-E.

412
00:22:34,778 --> 00:22:37,538
wrote a Palestinian-centric book.

413
00:22:37,618 --> 00:22:39,238
So you say it is biased, no question.

414
00:22:39,918 --> 00:22:41,538
But it didn't seem like a screed.

415
00:22:41,798 --> 00:22:43,918
It seemed like he tried to get it right.

416
00:22:44,738 --> 00:22:46,498
You know, you can kind of smell screed.

417
00:22:47,978 --> 00:22:56,098
And he described the sort of the evolution of the Jewish state starting in the 1920s.

418
00:22:56,698 --> 00:22:58,438
Stuff I didn't know anything about.

419
00:22:58,438 --> 00:23:03,858
and how Jews were moving to the Gaza-Aryan.

420
00:23:03,978 --> 00:23:05,218
We'll just call it Palestine.

421
00:23:05,578 --> 00:23:07,418
They don't like me to call it Palestine, but that's okay.

422
00:23:09,598 --> 00:23:12,178
And it was okay.

423
00:23:12,258 --> 00:23:15,078
It wasn't crazy, but it was causing some tension.

424
00:23:15,078 --> 00:23:17,158
And then there was this one fateful moment,

425
00:23:18,178 --> 00:23:20,338
which Papi didn't make a big deal of,

426
00:23:20,418 --> 00:23:21,758
but I think was a huge deal.

427
00:23:21,878 --> 00:23:24,078
The Brits, it was kind of a British protectorate.

428
00:23:25,378 --> 00:23:27,618
And so the Brits make these stupid rules,

429
00:23:27,618 --> 00:23:31,778
draw stupid borders. They fucked up everything they touched in some ways. They civilized

430
00:23:31,778 --> 00:23:34,038
worlds in some ways. It's kind of a mixed bag.

431
00:23:35,458 --> 00:23:39,718
They took land rules, which in that part of the world is kind of

432
00:23:39,718 --> 00:23:43,438
pseudo Marxist light where the village owned the land.

433
00:23:44,778 --> 00:23:47,398
They changed the rules to private ownership.

434
00:23:48,538 --> 00:23:51,938
The next thing that happened, money flooded from Europe and bought up all the land.

435
00:23:53,778 --> 00:23:55,598
What a shock. A shock phase.

436
00:23:55,598 --> 00:23:56,738
This is the 20s.

437
00:23:57,218 --> 00:23:58,958
This is my shock base right here.

438
00:23:59,458 --> 00:24:03,878
And then all of a sudden, that's when the squeeze started.

439
00:24:04,498 --> 00:24:08,638
Because the European money was way bigger than the Palestinian money.

440
00:24:09,878 --> 00:24:15,098
And did the British change it because of European money saying, change the rules.

441
00:24:15,338 --> 00:24:16,278
We want to go buy it.

442
00:24:17,558 --> 00:24:20,778
And he probably didn't actually go deeply into that topic.

443
00:24:20,778 --> 00:24:24,798
But that may have been an absolutely profound moment in the history of the region.

444
00:24:25,598 --> 00:24:30,218
Yeah. I mean, you mentioned Mearsheimer. I thought his appearance on Tucker last summer was one of my favorites.

445
00:24:30,938 --> 00:24:36,578
He's got balls the size of bowling balls. I mean, he and Walt, on the other hand, is silent.

446
00:24:37,178 --> 00:24:40,378
I think Walt couldn't take the beatings, which I totally understand.

447
00:24:40,798 --> 00:24:45,038
Mearsheimer's out there just fighting. He's like Dave Smith with a Ph.D.

448
00:24:45,378 --> 00:24:49,498
Well, he was big on the Ukraine stuff, too. Right. In the beginning, he's very important.

449
00:24:49,498 --> 00:24:51,838
When I wrote about Ukraine, Mearsheimer was big.

450
00:24:52,278 --> 00:24:53,538
Greenwald was big.

451
00:24:54,378 --> 00:24:56,018
Max Blumenthal was big on both.

452
00:24:57,258 --> 00:25:00,818
So I find about 40 people who are writing honestly about Ukraine.

453
00:25:02,178 --> 00:25:06,078
It's hard to find that many people writing honestly about Israel.

454
00:25:07,778 --> 00:25:11,078
But there's plenty of Palestinians who don't like them, that's for sure.

455
00:25:12,798 --> 00:25:14,998
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Well, there was a big focus on Tucker

479
00:26:51,658 --> 00:26:52,758
in your letter this year.

480
00:26:52,838 --> 00:26:53,798
Why that?

481
00:26:54,458 --> 00:26:56,038
Because I got beat up because of it.

482
00:26:56,558 --> 00:26:59,738
So it would have been a story of just how fun it was,

483
00:26:59,838 --> 00:27:03,278
but then what happened is it then spun out of control

484
00:27:03,278 --> 00:27:06,538
when I made the mistake of basically paraphrase

485
00:27:06,538 --> 00:27:07,958
quoting George Patton,

486
00:27:08,958 --> 00:27:10,898
in which I said you could make the argument

487
00:27:10,898 --> 00:27:11,918
we should have...

488
00:27:11,918 --> 00:27:13,578
The mistake I said of saying the word Hitler,

489
00:27:13,978 --> 00:27:15,678
I should have said fascists.

490
00:27:16,098 --> 00:27:19,578
A Jewish friend of mine said, Dave, anything but Hitler.

491
00:27:20,558 --> 00:27:27,598
But Patton basically got the end of the war, and I essentially paraphrased him almost verbatim, which he said.

492
00:27:27,698 --> 00:27:33,998
I hate to say this, but I realized that we should have fought Stalin instead.

493
00:27:34,298 --> 00:27:36,178
We picked the wrong guy to back.

494
00:27:36,258 --> 00:27:37,438
We should have fought Stalin, right?

495
00:27:37,658 --> 00:27:41,358
I did a podcast with Dinah West, who wrote American Betrayal.

496
00:27:41,358 --> 00:27:47,258
and in the podcast with her I said well you know the Jews might not agree with this but one could

497
00:27:47,258 --> 00:27:52,598
argue we should have fought Stalin not Hitler and she said well I am a Jew and I do agree

498
00:27:52,598 --> 00:27:59,238
and then she attacked me and I go what's that about well she gets beat up she's gotten beat

499
00:27:59,238 --> 00:28:06,318
up a lot I think she was just scampering away from live live fire I forgave her I was I was

500
00:28:06,318 --> 00:28:10,458
disappointed. Then Victor Davis Hanson

501
00:28:10,458 --> 00:28:14,518
went at me, made three important points, all of which were wrong,

502
00:28:14,758 --> 00:28:18,678
wrong, wrong. Here's a historian who I can demonstrably

503
00:28:18,678 --> 00:28:22,618
show is wrong. And he kept making

504
00:28:22,618 --> 00:28:26,658
them. And he kept calling me out. I go, Victor, I don't trust your

505
00:28:26,658 --> 00:28:30,738
motives now. And then people started sending me emails

506
00:28:30,738 --> 00:28:32,398
saying he's been doing this shit for years.

507
00:28:32,398 --> 00:28:37,638
this is you your opinion on before was wrong i thought he was a great guy

508
00:28:37,638 --> 00:28:43,398
they said no you had that part wrong then some guy wrote a blog picking on victor and it wasn't

509
00:28:43,398 --> 00:28:49,918
a screed again i hate screeds i don't need to hear screeds i like to write them but i don't hear

510
00:28:49,918 --> 00:28:57,798
um and he basically said that victor's arguments were so disingenuous they were just not honest

511
00:28:57,798 --> 00:29:06,838
arguments. So I had to take Victor down point by point by point. Laura Loomer, who is it? Mark Levin,

512
00:29:06,838 --> 00:29:17,158
who Tucker counterattacked pretty hard. I referred to as a rabid. I think I referred to him as human

513
00:29:17,158 --> 00:29:25,458
adjacent and a rabid bobcat in heat, I think I called him, and that he'd be selling falafels on

514
00:29:25,458 --> 00:29:34,818
the street corner if he wasn't pro-Israel 24-7. Ted Cruz, I described Tucker eviscerating him

515
00:29:34,818 --> 00:29:38,558
in an interview. I don't know if you saw that interview. That's a must-see interview. Tucker

516
00:29:38,558 --> 00:29:44,638
just- I watched that one. You would never want to be taken out by Tucker. If he decides to go at

517
00:29:44,638 --> 00:29:51,578
you, you are dead meat because he has the linguistic skills and he has the knowledge base to tear you.

518
00:29:51,578 --> 00:29:54,338
And he made Cruz look terrible.

519
00:29:55,458 --> 00:30:01,378
And so I referred to Ted Cruz as the state senator, the senator from the state of Israel.

520
00:30:02,958 --> 00:30:07,318
And then I referred to Laura Loomer as the master of click baiting.

521
00:30:07,378 --> 00:30:09,858
And then I shortened it to master master baiter.

522
00:30:10,518 --> 00:30:12,958
And then I said, we know what you are.

523
00:30:12,998 --> 00:30:14,598
We're just trying to figure out the price.

524
00:30:15,258 --> 00:30:18,138
And I've heard rumor at $7,000 for every happy ending.

525
00:30:18,138 --> 00:30:23,498
and that is in fact the price that supposedly netanyahu was paying his influencers

526
00:30:23,498 --> 00:30:31,598
that was loosely verified right i think so nor do i care at this point i'm willing to lie if

527
00:30:31,598 --> 00:30:36,258
they're willing to lie i'll lie but but i i'm trying not to lie but but i don't lose a lot of

528
00:30:36,258 --> 00:30:43,578
sleep and someone i picked on gates and my a copy editor all my shit's being bound by bob moriarty

529
00:30:43,578 --> 00:30:47,958
and a copy editor said i don't think you're totally fair with gates and i said well my quote's correct

530
00:30:47,958 --> 00:30:53,458
And then I gave him like 10 points of White Gates is so hateable.

531
00:30:53,498 --> 00:30:57,878
And I said, there is no chance I'm cutting him one millimeter of slack.

532
00:30:58,398 --> 00:31:00,338
Is it Bill Gates or Matthew Gates?

533
00:31:00,478 --> 00:31:01,078
Bill Gates.

534
00:31:01,318 --> 00:31:01,838
Bill Gates.

535
00:31:02,258 --> 00:31:02,478
Yeah.

536
00:31:02,558 --> 00:31:08,958
He used what I said was he used the word vaccine and reduced population in the same sentence.

537
00:31:09,398 --> 00:31:11,318
And it was unclear what he meant.

538
00:31:11,578 --> 00:31:13,358
Now, I can make the counter argument.

539
00:31:13,358 --> 00:31:19,438
I can say what he's saying is with vaccines, you don't have to have 20 kids to have three survive.

540
00:31:20,198 --> 00:31:22,058
And therefore, you don't have to have 20 kids.

541
00:31:22,618 --> 00:31:24,698
Right. And therefore, you can reduce the population.

542
00:31:24,878 --> 00:31:26,798
But that's it wasn't clear what he was saying.

543
00:31:27,078 --> 00:31:28,358
His father is a famous eugenicist.

544
00:31:29,878 --> 00:31:30,578
The book's on it.

545
00:31:31,158 --> 00:31:35,958
Yes. And so I said, no, not giving him the break because he's also a douchebag.

546
00:31:36,138 --> 00:31:39,158
And so Epstein level douchebag.

547
00:31:39,158 --> 00:31:44,658
And so my copy editor was saying, no, I think it's vague and it's not clear what he's saying here.

548
00:31:44,678 --> 00:31:45,898
And I'm going, I don't care.

549
00:31:46,678 --> 00:31:52,158
He said, reduce population and vaccine in the same sentence, which is exactly the way I phrased it.

550
00:31:54,318 --> 00:31:57,758
But it was much shorter this year because I ran out of gas.

551
00:31:57,818 --> 00:31:58,838
I ran out of time.

552
00:31:59,298 --> 00:32:03,198
And I've run out of patience for not being able to figure out what's truth now.

553
00:32:03,198 --> 00:32:05,738
and I'm trying to figure out

554
00:32:05,738 --> 00:32:11,758
I had to go through 17 years of year and reviews

555
00:32:11,758 --> 00:32:15,798
this year because Moriarty's binding all of them. On his dime, he's paying a copy

556
00:32:15,798 --> 00:32:19,518
editor to copy edit him and prep him. On his dime

557
00:32:19,518 --> 00:32:20,998
and I get the proceeds.

558
00:32:24,058 --> 00:32:27,538
It's an estimated 3,500 pages.

559
00:32:27,538 --> 00:32:29,738
It's got to be three volumes at least.

560
00:32:30,278 --> 00:32:31,978
It's 15 volumes.

561
00:32:33,198 --> 00:32:34,038
so you're going to do individual?

562
00:32:34,658 --> 00:32:36,578
Well, there are 300 pages apiece

563
00:32:36,578 --> 00:32:38,138
except for the first couple of years.

564
00:32:38,438 --> 00:32:40,758
So 9 through 12 is a volume.

565
00:32:41,278 --> 00:32:42,858
13, 14 is a volume.

566
00:32:43,358 --> 00:32:44,618
It turns out 21,

567
00:32:45,558 --> 00:32:47,378
where I don't even know how I did it,

568
00:32:48,198 --> 00:32:49,678
550 pages.

569
00:32:50,358 --> 00:32:53,378
Now, this is not computer printout pages.

570
00:32:53,378 --> 00:32:54,518
This is book pages.

571
00:32:55,998 --> 00:32:59,818
But 550 book pages is three volumes,

572
00:32:59,918 --> 00:33:01,118
but I'm not counting those three.

573
00:33:01,118 --> 00:33:03,398
So it's actually 17 volumes by that model.

574
00:33:04,138 --> 00:33:05,218
And I don't remember.

575
00:33:05,378 --> 00:33:06,398
I don't know how I do it.

576
00:33:06,478 --> 00:33:06,958
I don't.

577
00:33:07,058 --> 00:33:08,558
I get in this writing mode.

578
00:33:09,658 --> 00:33:12,478
And I just get in this zone starting around September.

579
00:33:12,478 --> 00:33:14,898
And then just you can't get through the shell.

580
00:33:15,158 --> 00:33:16,578
I'm just I'm just there.

581
00:33:17,178 --> 00:33:19,738
I'm paying attention to nothing else in my life.

582
00:33:20,238 --> 00:33:24,758
Well, somebody who's severed from writer's block for the last two months, I envy that ability because.

583
00:33:25,158 --> 00:33:26,158
Well, I don't have it now.

584
00:33:26,238 --> 00:33:29,538
So don't envy it now because because I really did.

585
00:33:29,538 --> 00:33:30,538
I was just unable.

586
00:33:30,538 --> 00:33:33,098
And then I realized I said, you have to write about Tucker.

587
00:33:33,658 --> 00:33:36,018
You can't leave that shit out there uncontested.

588
00:33:36,838 --> 00:33:37,918
You've got to write that.

589
00:33:38,178 --> 00:33:41,158
And I said, you've got a great story on finance.

590
00:33:41,478 --> 00:33:43,158
Just leave the other shit on the floor.

591
00:33:43,658 --> 00:33:45,718
And so the stuff I think is fun.

592
00:33:45,938 --> 00:33:49,898
Like what I notice is, I know I'm rambling here, but what I notice is.

593
00:33:50,438 --> 00:33:50,798
Shocker.

594
00:33:51,578 --> 00:33:51,938
I know.

595
00:33:52,058 --> 00:33:58,018
Well, it's better than the guy you sit there and you get monosyllabic answers from and you're trying to figure out a price I'm out of them.

596
00:33:58,018 --> 00:34:04,938
So reading the 17 years, I can see trends that I never would have noticed.

597
00:34:06,098 --> 00:34:15,178
And so I can see like one thing that's really noticeable is in 2015, which I focus on in this year's write up in the finance section.

598
00:34:15,578 --> 00:34:20,798
2015, according to legends of finance, we were staring into the abyss yet again.

599
00:34:20,798 --> 00:34:28,178
I mean, we're talking Greenspan, Sandruck and Miller, Howard Marks, you know, famous, famous guys saying we are so fucked.

600
00:34:28,418 --> 00:34:32,758
How did we do this again? How did we do this already? It's horrible monetary policy.

601
00:34:33,358 --> 00:34:43,218
And by 16, they were talking about the horrors of NERP and ZERP and all that shit and how we are just going to have an apocalyptic finish.

602
00:34:43,638 --> 00:34:48,658
And then I show the returns over the next 10 years and they're ridiculously good.

603
00:34:48,658 --> 00:34:53,178
and the rhetorical question for which I have a very firm belief is

604
00:34:53,178 --> 00:34:57,898
did they get it wrong or are we that much more fucked

605
00:34:57,898 --> 00:35:04,158
and my math and I do in a podcast I challenge people

606
00:35:04,158 --> 00:35:07,518
I said look come at me if you don't agree with what I'm saying

607
00:35:07,518 --> 00:35:10,818
but I think we are so far out over our skis now that

608
00:35:10,818 --> 00:35:15,218
you know it's like oh my god you know there has been an earthquake in California

609
00:35:15,218 --> 00:35:18,538
200 years ago move sell your house

610
00:35:18,538 --> 00:35:19,818
get the fuck out of there

611
00:35:19,818 --> 00:35:20,898
right?

612
00:35:21,398 --> 00:35:22,798
because it's coming

613
00:35:22,798 --> 00:35:25,718
well is that what precious metals are telling us right now?

614
00:35:26,318 --> 00:35:27,338
that's the question

615
00:35:27,338 --> 00:35:28,058
what do you think?

616
00:35:28,658 --> 00:35:31,238
I think something's definitely going on

617
00:35:31,238 --> 00:35:33,938
so you don't think it's just a mania meme thing?

618
00:35:34,758 --> 00:35:35,118
no

619
00:35:35,118 --> 00:35:36,358
no not at all

620
00:35:36,358 --> 00:35:39,838
I think there's a mad dash for these hard assets

621
00:35:39,838 --> 00:35:41,318
by big money

622
00:35:41,318 --> 00:35:42,738
yeah I mean

623
00:35:42,738 --> 00:35:45,938
it's not Dave and Marty

624
00:35:45,938 --> 00:35:47,498
no but I know

625
00:35:47,498 --> 00:35:49,518
you've been on shows with Tom

626
00:35:49,518 --> 00:35:50,318
and you've talked to him.

627
00:35:50,998 --> 00:35:52,358
Tom, Luongo Tom.

628
00:35:52,378 --> 00:35:53,318
Yeah, Tom Luongo.

629
00:35:54,098 --> 00:35:55,398
His whole theory that we're

630
00:35:55,398 --> 00:35:57,898
trying to break away from the city of London

631
00:35:57,898 --> 00:35:58,478
and the Davos.

632
00:35:59,218 --> 00:36:00,558
Tom is so knowledgeable.

633
00:36:01,158 --> 00:36:03,858
I've asked a lot of people about the city of London

634
00:36:03,858 --> 00:36:05,718
and there are some real smart guys who talk

635
00:36:05,718 --> 00:36:06,438
like Tom.

636
00:36:07,178 --> 00:36:09,518
I don't understand it yet. I asked Tom

637
00:36:09,518 --> 00:36:11,698
if there's one book I can

638
00:36:11,698 --> 00:36:13,238
read to get started or something.

639
00:36:13,858 --> 00:36:15,618
But there are some really smart guys

640
00:36:15,618 --> 00:36:17,398
who talk about the city of London. I asked Steve Hank

641
00:36:17,398 --> 00:36:21,138
in two podcasts actually, who's a currency expert.

642
00:36:21,378 --> 00:36:22,178
You are now connected.

643
00:36:22,458 --> 00:36:25,078
Steve was the advisor to two presidents of Venezuela.

644
00:36:25,358 --> 00:36:27,298
You think his phone's ringing off the hook right about now?

645
00:36:28,758 --> 00:36:31,358
And I asked him about the city of London

646
00:36:31,358 --> 00:36:34,898
and this idea that they're sort of a financial powerhouse.

647
00:36:34,978 --> 00:36:35,978
He said, no.

648
00:36:37,258 --> 00:36:40,898
He said, New York's 90% of the world's financial system.

649
00:36:40,998 --> 00:36:42,978
I don't even pay attention to the city of London.

650
00:36:43,858 --> 00:36:45,318
So who's right?

651
00:36:45,318 --> 00:36:47,998
It doesn't mean Steve's right.

652
00:36:48,078 --> 00:36:50,918
It doesn't mean Tom's wrong, but I just don't know.

653
00:36:51,258 --> 00:36:58,938
Regardless if you believe in the city of London theory, I think there's definitely something going on.

654
00:36:59,258 --> 00:37:01,598
I've always said – I've said this for a while.

655
00:37:01,678 --> 00:37:02,538
I think you've been following it too.

656
00:37:02,598 --> 00:37:10,918
I think Japan has always been the canary in the coal mine first to do crazy quantitative easing, monetization of –

657
00:37:10,918 --> 00:37:15,778
So yesterday, yesterday in the Twitter spaces, Japan carry trade came up.

658
00:37:16,158 --> 00:37:21,938
I remember it was about a year ago when both their long-term and short-term rates started climbing.

659
00:37:22,078 --> 00:37:24,318
And now they're 30 or something like 3.5%.

660
00:37:24,318 --> 00:37:25,538
I mean, that's ridiculous.

661
00:37:26,618 --> 00:37:32,138
And after about four days of market turmoil, everything settled down and everyone said, oh, the carry trade is now over.

662
00:37:32,238 --> 00:37:33,778
And I go, no.

663
00:37:34,758 --> 00:37:39,678
No, you don't have a 20-year carry trade where people speculate with free money and then raise rates,

664
00:37:39,678 --> 00:37:42,118
raise short-term and long-term rates that much

665
00:37:42,118 --> 00:37:45,038
and not have teeth flying around the studio, right?

666
00:37:45,398 --> 00:37:45,638
Yeah.

667
00:37:45,898 --> 00:37:47,038
That wasn't it.

668
00:37:47,118 --> 00:37:48,638
So how are they holding it together?

669
00:37:48,758 --> 00:37:51,338
There's got to be a carry trade disaster out there.

670
00:37:52,018 --> 00:37:52,498
I imagine.

671
00:37:52,678 --> 00:37:54,578
That's why I think people are flocking to these.

672
00:37:55,698 --> 00:37:58,078
How are they keeping the balls in the air?

673
00:37:58,578 --> 00:37:59,178
I have no idea.

674
00:38:00,178 --> 00:38:02,818
Is that maybe other central banks flooding the zone

675
00:38:02,818 --> 00:38:04,098
without telling us?

676
00:38:04,178 --> 00:38:05,798
No, maybe there's swap lines that are out there

677
00:38:05,798 --> 00:38:07,098
that we're unaware of.

678
00:38:07,098 --> 00:38:10,638
or maybe it's just they're just hard coding computers to say,

679
00:38:10,718 --> 00:38:11,598
don't wear everything's fine.

680
00:38:11,698 --> 00:38:12,158
I don't know.

681
00:38:12,778 --> 00:38:13,838
I don't either.

682
00:38:13,958 --> 00:38:16,958
But I do know the Japanese carry trade, which, again,

683
00:38:17,018 --> 00:38:20,958
people borrowed at zero interest to speculate on huge scale.

684
00:38:21,278 --> 00:38:23,398
And now those interest rates go up.

685
00:38:23,898 --> 00:38:26,278
There's no way that there's not fatalities.

686
00:38:26,278 --> 00:38:28,618
There should be corpses in the street.

687
00:38:29,618 --> 00:38:31,618
Well, I think that's the big question, particularly with silver.

688
00:38:32,058 --> 00:38:35,398
Like, are these I saw TD had a big silver short trade.

689
00:38:35,478 --> 00:38:36,238
They got blown out.

690
00:38:37,098 --> 00:38:39,958
TD Asset Management?

691
00:38:40,138 --> 00:38:40,318
TD?

692
00:38:41,058 --> 00:38:43,538
I think it was...

693
00:38:43,538 --> 00:38:47,338
My old fraternity brother was CEO of TD Asset Management.

694
00:38:48,158 --> 00:38:50,078
I didn't know he wasn't a douchebag.

695
00:38:50,258 --> 00:38:54,558
I thought he was just like the other 40 clowns I lived with.

696
00:38:55,038 --> 00:38:55,958
TD Securities.

697
00:38:56,798 --> 00:38:58,358
They're all derived from the same.

698
00:38:58,438 --> 00:38:59,878
I think they're all spinoffs.

699
00:39:01,258 --> 00:39:04,078
So he runs a family office now, whatever those are.

700
00:39:04,078 --> 00:39:08,658
And so they got blown out on a silver trade?

701
00:39:09,358 --> 00:39:09,658
What happened?

702
00:39:09,658 --> 00:39:10,918
They had to close.

703
00:39:11,558 --> 00:39:20,798
TD Securities on Wednesday said in a model portfolio update publication that it closed a short silver position after prices hit its exit level at $93.15.

704
00:39:21,098 --> 00:39:23,278
They had to have been hurt by that one.

705
00:39:23,658 --> 00:39:23,858
Yeah.

706
00:39:24,718 --> 00:39:26,878
But the question is, are they magnitudes?

707
00:39:27,718 --> 00:39:27,918
Right?

708
00:39:27,918 --> 00:39:34,138
But remember in 08-09, I wrote about 08-09 in 2002.

709
00:39:34,938 --> 00:39:38,098
And everyone says, oh, too early is wrong.

710
00:39:38,178 --> 00:39:38,918
I go, fuck you.

711
00:39:39,538 --> 00:39:45,378
If I predict the Dow is going to drop 100 points and I'm two years early, I'm wrong.

712
00:39:45,858 --> 00:39:53,298
If you predict the entire world is going to implode into its foundation like Building 7 in 2002 and it takes five years, you're dead right.

713
00:39:53,298 --> 00:39:56,698
So one time Paul Kodrosky said, too early is wrong.

714
00:39:56,698 --> 00:40:01,558
and I sent him my 2002, May 6, 2002,

715
00:40:01,678 --> 00:40:02,518
if you want to be precise,

716
00:40:02,918 --> 00:40:06,118
write up five pages on why the banking system

717
00:40:06,118 --> 00:40:08,098
was going to collapse.

718
00:40:08,658 --> 00:40:10,878
That probably beats Rubini for fuck's sake, right?

719
00:40:11,498 --> 00:40:15,818
And I said, was I too early or was I wrong?

720
00:40:16,618 --> 00:40:19,278
And he writes back to me,

721
00:40:19,338 --> 00:40:21,338
he says, you are brilliantly correct.

722
00:40:22,458 --> 00:40:23,678
And so the only thing I got wrong

723
00:40:23,678 --> 00:40:25,818
was I thought JP Morgan was going to go down too.

724
00:40:25,818 --> 00:40:28,798
But I predicted GE and all that shit.

725
00:40:29,718 --> 00:40:31,178
And it's on the internet.

726
00:40:31,518 --> 00:40:35,978
I posted the email unredacted, unmodified, unedited, on the internet.

727
00:40:36,178 --> 00:40:38,718
It was sent to Rick Sherwin Goldman Sachs.

728
00:40:38,798 --> 00:40:44,218
He can attest to the authenticity if someone wants to really challenge it.

729
00:40:45,078 --> 00:40:48,058
And yet it took five years.

730
00:40:50,038 --> 00:40:55,278
Even though I wasn't doing the math, I was just reading shit by smart guys.

731
00:40:55,818 --> 00:40:59,398
Well, that's – I mean I think that's the big question right now.

732
00:41:00,038 --> 00:41:06,738
Like is this ramp up in gold, silver, platinum, copper prices, uranium streaming too?

733
00:41:07,578 --> 00:41:13,698
Is it a product of something blowing up on the back end or is it a recognition that we're going to this multipolar world and people are simply –

734
00:41:13,698 --> 00:41:14,218
Or both.

735
00:41:14,498 --> 00:41:15,538
Or both, yeah.

736
00:41:15,538 --> 00:41:24,718
Well, so my point that I totally lost track of was that when it finally started to break, one of the early cracking noises where you're on ice, you go –

737
00:41:24,718 --> 00:41:27,458
you hear this crack and you go, what was that?

738
00:41:27,458 --> 00:41:28,438
Right?

739
00:41:28,438 --> 00:41:30,738
I tell, as a parent, I can tell you,

740
00:41:30,738 --> 00:41:34,478
I was terrified my kids would go out on a frozen pond.

741
00:41:34,478 --> 00:41:47,056
I read them the riot act so many times about how you go from being fine to dead in five minutes And in the first cracking were a couple internal hedge funds at Bear Stearns

742
00:41:47,996 --> 00:41:50,336
Now the real estate market had already rolled over

743
00:41:50,336 --> 00:41:52,136
a year earlier.

744
00:41:52,136 --> 00:41:55,496
I told my class in March of 2007, middle class

745
00:41:55,496 --> 00:41:57,056
with like Tourette's syndrome, right?

746
00:41:57,056 --> 00:41:58,936
Just blurted out to them, I said,

747
00:41:58,936 --> 00:42:01,996
I think the banking system's about to collapse now.

748
00:42:01,996 --> 00:42:04,436
And they all looked at me like,

749
00:42:04,436 --> 00:42:05,196
What are you talking about?

750
00:42:05,236 --> 00:42:08,196
I said, yeah, I actually think the system's just going to go kaplooey.

751
00:42:08,356 --> 00:42:10,496
I think we're right now on the cusp.

752
00:42:13,316 --> 00:42:15,196
But the Bear Stearns hedge funds were like this.

753
00:42:15,316 --> 00:42:16,656
Oh, $600 million hedge funds.

754
00:42:16,736 --> 00:42:17,516
I said, who cares?

755
00:42:19,176 --> 00:42:20,076
That's pocket change.

756
00:42:20,736 --> 00:42:26,696
But it wasn't pocket change because the risk is not some event.

757
00:42:26,696 --> 00:42:27,756
Those are triggers.

758
00:42:28,296 --> 00:42:29,796
The risk is the overvaluation.

759
00:42:31,596 --> 00:42:33,336
Overvaluation is always the problem.

760
00:42:33,336 --> 00:42:39,816
The market is not equipped to handle any sort of concussive blow.

761
00:42:41,196 --> 00:42:43,696
And when it's overvalued, it's like a Jenga tower.

762
00:42:44,696 --> 00:42:45,456
Well, that's a big question.

763
00:42:45,516 --> 00:42:50,236
How big is the air pocket between what the values are perceived to be and what they actually are right now?

764
00:42:51,816 --> 00:42:55,656
Well, I think here's the crazy, and this is why I call it the complacency bubble.

765
00:42:55,656 --> 00:43:03,336
I don't think I'm first used the term, but I'm first to squeal at the top of my lungs like a rabid Bobcat and eat.

766
00:43:04,116 --> 00:43:12,276
And I caught the complacency bubble because do you think there's anyone who thinks the markets are stable?

767
00:43:13,176 --> 00:43:14,356
They're in good shape.

768
00:43:14,476 --> 00:43:15,376
They're fair value.

769
00:43:15,576 --> 00:43:17,376
They're not insane.

770
00:43:18,476 --> 00:43:23,776
Well, if we actually have a productivity boom driven by AI and the tariff regime is working out well.

771
00:43:23,776 --> 00:43:26,236
And how many decades will that take?

772
00:43:26,736 --> 00:43:27,396
I have no idea.

773
00:43:29,436 --> 00:43:30,596
That's a theory out there.

774
00:43:30,736 --> 00:43:33,136
Oh, so on the Twitter space yesterday, Brendan Eich showed up.

775
00:43:33,956 --> 00:43:36,356
And that was great because I wanted to talk to Brendan Eich.

776
00:43:36,616 --> 00:43:38,596
We've had phone calls, but I wanted to talk to him.

777
00:43:38,816 --> 00:43:45,476
Brendan, pre-IPO Netscape, founded Mozilla Firefox, wrote JavaScript, founded Brave.

778
00:43:45,716 --> 00:43:47,136
This guy knows Silicon Valley.

779
00:43:47,216 --> 00:43:48,296
This guy knows his shit.

780
00:43:48,696 --> 00:43:51,516
And we were talking about this shit.

781
00:43:51,516 --> 00:43:56,856
Now, here's what I'll tell you is most people, you can hear so many people say the valuations are insane.

782
00:43:57,456 --> 00:43:59,056
Don't give me this insane shit.

783
00:43:59,596 --> 00:44:00,676
Give me a fucking number.

784
00:44:01,976 --> 00:44:02,736
Give me a number.

785
00:44:02,856 --> 00:44:03,556
Don't be a pussy.

786
00:44:04,036 --> 00:44:04,636
Give me a number.

787
00:44:04,936 --> 00:44:06,436
Insane could be 30%.

788
00:44:06,436 --> 00:44:10,156
The number I give is 200%.

789
00:44:10,156 --> 00:44:12,916
And it's real easy to document.

790
00:44:14,216 --> 00:44:17,616
And I'm not pumping my year in review, but I got to say it.

791
00:44:17,616 --> 00:44:21,556
If you read the financial section of my year in review, you should shit your thong.

792
00:44:23,496 --> 00:44:25,696
I left it all in the field this year.

793
00:44:25,756 --> 00:44:29,896
I said, okay, if I'm never going to write this thing again, you better get this financial part right this year.

794
00:44:34,736 --> 00:44:37,356
There's no one who doesn't think we're screwed.

795
00:44:38,176 --> 00:44:39,176
But here's the problem.

796
00:44:39,476 --> 00:44:42,936
They think the Fed's going to save us because they've always saved us.

797
00:44:43,856 --> 00:44:45,996
And I don't think they're going to save us.

798
00:44:45,996 --> 00:44:51,036
I think they're going to stand back and say, okay, they've got their fingers in the dikes.

799
00:44:52,436 --> 00:44:53,956
Forget Liz Cheney. Move on.

800
00:44:55,316 --> 00:44:59,276
Well, you phrased it, I think, like creative demolition, not creative destruction.

801
00:44:59,596 --> 00:45:00,036
That's right.

802
00:45:00,356 --> 00:45:01,236
What do you mean by that?

803
00:45:02,036 --> 00:45:05,656
Well, they've just – I needed a new word.

804
00:45:08,216 --> 00:45:09,996
Creative demolition sounded good.

805
00:45:11,096 --> 00:45:15,896
If you – here are the merits of a bubble, and you know the drill.

806
00:45:15,996 --> 00:45:19,496
I mean, let's hypothetically say Bitcoin's a bubble.

807
00:45:20,616 --> 00:45:25,776
It generated fantastic improvements in technology, right?

808
00:45:25,836 --> 00:45:29,196
The blockchain, the evolution, the working through the details.

809
00:45:29,436 --> 00:45:38,296
And then, of course, it could be, and I don't want to turn this into a Bitcoin podcast, but it could be the foundations of total authoritarianism.

810
00:45:39,256 --> 00:45:43,396
Don't fall for the Catherine Austin Fitt stuff, not Bitcoin, maybe crypto.

811
00:45:43,396 --> 00:45:45,696
By the way, you should check my Twitter feed.

812
00:45:45,996 --> 00:45:51,956
A retweet I did with some guy who claims to have been Europe's first Bitcoin something or other.

813
00:45:52,716 --> 00:45:59,956
And he wrote this very long, it's probably my highest tweet because I did it this morning.

814
00:46:00,676 --> 00:46:06,776
Very long discussion of the mathematics of Bitcoin that I'm not qualified to evaluate, but you are.

815
00:46:07,196 --> 00:46:15,896
And he talks about why the Bitcoin price must mathematically keep going up.

816
00:46:15,996 --> 00:46:19,916
and I know you're going, of course, that's what I'm rooting for,

817
00:46:19,996 --> 00:46:25,316
but he makes the case that it's not mathematically possible for it to keep doing it,

818
00:46:25,356 --> 00:46:26,936
that there's a ceiling coming.

819
00:46:27,836 --> 00:46:29,696
And this guy looks like he's a devout hodler.

820
00:46:30,776 --> 00:46:39,436
If you – I am very sympathetic and like almost wholly convinced of the power law,

821
00:46:40,396 --> 00:46:42,996
the power trend adoption curve that Bitcoin's on.

822
00:46:43,396 --> 00:46:44,716
Clarify that. Clarify that.

823
00:46:44,716 --> 00:46:55,496
Basically what we're experiencing with Bitcoin is similar to the internet network adoption, which followed a power trend, a power law trend.

824
00:46:55,916 --> 00:46:56,056
Right.

825
00:46:56,596 --> 00:47:01,276
And you can put the price on a power trend too.

826
00:47:01,876 --> 00:47:05,496
And basically it's how networks are adopted.

827
00:47:06,476 --> 00:47:06,636
Right.

828
00:47:06,736 --> 00:47:07,676
There's a name for that law.

829
00:47:07,756 --> 00:47:08,636
What's the name for the law?

830
00:47:09,436 --> 00:47:10,896
It's not Godwin's law.

831
00:47:10,996 --> 00:47:12,216
That's calling in Hitler.

832
00:47:12,216 --> 00:47:15,756
there's a name for that

833
00:47:15,756 --> 00:47:17,376
I forget

834
00:47:17,376 --> 00:47:19,516
Goodwin or something

835
00:47:19,516 --> 00:47:20,016
I don't know

836
00:47:20,016 --> 00:47:22,376
the guy's name who wrote the screen

837
00:47:22,376 --> 00:47:23,996
you ought to read it for no other reason

838
00:47:23,996 --> 00:47:25,736
to make sure that he's a nutcase

839
00:47:25,736 --> 00:47:28,116
rather than trying to tell you something important

840
00:47:28,116 --> 00:47:30,436
his name is Justin Bones

841
00:47:30,436 --> 00:47:31,656
B-O-N-S

842
00:47:31,656 --> 00:47:34,536
he says he's Europe's oldest cryptocurrency

843
00:47:34,536 --> 00:47:35,956
that dude's a quack

844
00:47:35,956 --> 00:47:36,976
oh is that right?

845
00:47:37,436 --> 00:47:40,496
I didn't even read the whole thing

846
00:47:40,496 --> 00:47:41,596
I just know that

847
00:47:41,596 --> 00:47:45,676
I just know that he went to a lot of trouble to write this statement.

848
00:47:45,676 --> 00:47:50,196
He was like a big blocker back in the day.

849
00:47:50,336 --> 00:47:54,276
He wanted us, like the whole Bcash, Bitcoin Cash, Roger Ver, he was like part of that.

850
00:47:54,536 --> 00:47:56,896
He's all butthirty to go in his direction.

851
00:47:56,896 --> 00:48:01,236
He's been saying Bitcoin's failed for like a decade now, and it's gone up in pricing.

852
00:48:01,896 --> 00:48:08,876
Well, I wasn't telling you this to tell you you're a douchebag, but rather just to alert you to this existence of this statement.

853
00:48:08,876 --> 00:48:19,716
So in any case, so the silver question is, is it a big enough market to cause trouble beyond just those who are short silver?

854
00:48:20,056 --> 00:48:26,696
Right. And and it could be because the Bear Stearns hedge funds were not very big looking either.

855
00:48:27,756 --> 00:48:36,316
So. So. So, you know, an M80 is not a problem unless you're standing in nitroglycerin and then it can become a problem.

856
00:48:36,316 --> 00:48:40,036
and so I just don't know.

857
00:48:40,936 --> 00:48:45,296
Do you think this really is a, you know, the COMEX, the scheming,

858
00:48:45,376 --> 00:48:48,976
the shit is finally broken and silver is finally price discovering?

859
00:48:49,196 --> 00:48:51,156
Is that sort of the way you describe it?

860
00:48:51,796 --> 00:48:56,696
I mean, I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on like the paper trade

861
00:48:56,696 --> 00:49:00,136
and those theories, but I mean, there's obviously price discovery going on right now.

862
00:49:00,376 --> 00:49:01,676
And I do think it's legitimate.

863
00:49:02,996 --> 00:49:03,876
Central banks.

864
00:49:03,876 --> 00:49:09,556
Yeah, and I listened to the Forward Guidance podcast today with this guy, Alex Campbell.

865
00:49:09,816 --> 00:49:18,196
He was the ex-commodities head at Bridgewater, and he was putting together – he's been putting together a silver thesis for like the last two years.

866
00:49:18,196 --> 00:49:25,576
seems explaining it, you factor in supply above ground and then the industrial use cases

867
00:49:25,576 --> 00:49:33,496
of it and the demand for it as a reserve asset, particularly from China.

868
00:49:33,496 --> 00:49:39,916
Do you think the tier one asset designation, there's not only a tier one asset designation

869
00:49:39,916 --> 00:49:46,956
Basel III, but there's also, there was a decision out of India that said they can now

870
00:49:46,956 --> 00:49:50,236
use it in various retirement accounts that

871
00:49:50,236 --> 00:49:54,976
they're now legitimate so that those accounts can diversify into commodities.

872
00:49:56,256 --> 00:49:59,296
So there are geopolitical moves to bring

873
00:49:59,296 --> 00:50:02,676
precious metals into the investment world.

874
00:50:03,696 --> 00:50:06,836
I think it's not only that too. You just look at the

875
00:50:06,836 --> 00:50:11,196
just the debt system as well.

876
00:50:11,196 --> 00:50:15,016
You need a natural hedge to that

877
00:50:15,016 --> 00:50:25,196
If you're looking at not only the dead system, but SWIFT and the sanctions and the confiscating of sovereign assets.

878
00:50:25,196 --> 00:50:29,996
By the way, those sanctions against Russia could turn out to be the blasting cap.

879
00:50:30,916 --> 00:50:50,096
They could turn out to be the sanctions against Russia and confiscating their assets could have changed the course of history in ways that whichever dildo in the Biden administration, Dingleberry in the Biden administration, came up with that should potentially be scolded.

880
00:50:50,956 --> 00:50:51,336
Yes.

881
00:50:52,216 --> 00:50:54,256
That might have been a disaster.

882
00:50:54,256 --> 00:51:01,796
I think we'll look back and that'll be a marker as maybe the definitive moment, the dollar reserve system as we knew it ended, right?

883
00:51:03,116 --> 00:51:05,216
Yeah, I was in my fourth turning section.

884
00:51:05,356 --> 00:51:06,736
I wrote a fourth turning section.

885
00:51:07,496 --> 00:51:14,956
I went through a dozen – Grant Williams and Adam Taggart were talking about fourth turning.

886
00:51:15,496 --> 00:51:20,056
When I first read fourth turning, it turns out I didn't know that Wall Street was already all over it.

887
00:51:20,056 --> 00:51:25,296
I think it was in 2009 I wrote about Fourth Turning, maybe 2010.

888
00:51:28,696 --> 00:51:34,976
I got an email from a friend, Einhorn, who oftentimes I mention him but won't say who he is.

889
00:51:35,116 --> 00:51:36,416
He said, what do you think of the Fourth Turning?

890
00:51:36,536 --> 00:51:37,836
I said, well, I'm only half done.

891
00:51:38,636 --> 00:51:39,336
There's that.

892
00:51:40,736 --> 00:51:42,196
It says that, now I've got to read it.

893
00:51:42,296 --> 00:51:43,576
Then I got an email about two weeks later.

894
00:51:43,656 --> 00:51:44,436
He said, well, what do you think?

895
00:51:44,536 --> 00:51:46,356
I go, oh, fuck, now I've really got to read it.

896
00:51:46,356 --> 00:51:54,336
And apparently tons of hedge fund men were passing that around and talking about it in a big way.

897
00:51:54,536 --> 00:51:56,296
And it's a pretty good model.

898
00:51:56,476 --> 00:51:57,456
It's holding up pretty well.

899
00:51:59,396 --> 00:52:09,156
And Strauss and Howe really unbelievably prescient sort of predictions in 96 that it would come around 2010.

900
00:52:09,156 --> 00:52:11,656
It would probably be triggered by a financial crisis.

901
00:52:12,036 --> 00:52:15,436
But then the shit would start hitting the fan in a big way.

902
00:52:15,436 --> 00:52:17,256
And boy, did this shit start hitting the fan.

903
00:52:17,676 --> 00:52:19,156
There are cracks in the foundations of your money.

904
00:52:19,416 --> 00:52:22,296
Governments around the world are managing record debt the same way they always have,

905
00:52:22,416 --> 00:52:23,336
by debasing their currencies.

906
00:52:23,756 --> 00:52:25,756
And the effects are already showing up across markets.

907
00:52:26,356 --> 00:52:30,376
In his report, The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why the shift is reshaping

908
00:52:30,376 --> 00:52:34,956
portfolios, why gold tends to act first, and why Bitcoin often follows as the implications

909
00:52:34,956 --> 00:52:35,756
become clearer.

910
00:52:36,176 --> 00:52:40,736
On January 28th, James joins Unchained Live for the Age of Debasement, a presentation

911
00:52:40,736 --> 00:52:44,816
and Q&A expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long-term

912
00:52:44,816 --> 00:52:45,196
investors.

913
00:52:45,436 --> 00:52:49,456
If the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing, this event helps put the pieces together.

914
00:52:49,796 --> 00:52:54,116
Register now and get early access to the report at unchained.com slash tftc.

915
00:52:54,236 --> 00:52:56,576
That's unchained.com slash tftc.

916
00:52:56,796 --> 00:52:57,276
What's up, freaks?

917
00:52:57,396 --> 00:52:58,836
This report was brought to you by good friends at Silent.

918
00:52:59,056 --> 00:53:01,876
Silent creates everyday, fair day gear that protects your hardware.

919
00:53:02,136 --> 00:53:02,536
We're in Bitcoin.

920
00:53:03,016 --> 00:53:04,716
We have a lot of hardware that we need to secure.

921
00:53:05,176 --> 00:53:07,236
Your wallet emits signals that can leave you vulnerable.

922
00:53:07,816 --> 00:53:10,696
You want to pick up Silent's gear, put your hardware in that.

923
00:53:10,796 --> 00:53:11,956
I have a tap signer right here.

924
00:53:12,456 --> 00:53:13,756
I got the Silent card holder.

925
00:53:13,756 --> 00:53:14,516
Replace my wallet.

926
00:53:14,516 --> 00:53:19,416
I was using Ridge Wallet because it's secured against RFID signal jacking. Silent, the card

927
00:53:19,416 --> 00:53:24,016
holder, does the same thing. It's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the

928
00:53:24,016 --> 00:53:27,576
Faraday phone sleeve, which you can put a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys

929
00:53:27,576 --> 00:53:31,036
at the house too. There's been a lot of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday

930
00:53:31,036 --> 00:53:35,136
backpacks. It's a Bitcoin company. They're running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury.

931
00:53:35,256 --> 00:53:42,036
They accept Bitcoin via strike. So go to slnt.com slash tftc to get 15% off anything or simply just

932
00:53:42,036 --> 00:53:45,576
Use the code TFTC when shopping at slnt.com.

933
00:53:45,776 --> 00:53:47,936
Patented technology, special operations approved.

934
00:53:48,276 --> 00:53:49,216
It has free shipping as well.

935
00:53:49,296 --> 00:53:49,856
So go check it out.

936
00:53:50,076 --> 00:53:51,156
It's completely exact.

937
00:53:51,256 --> 00:53:51,796
Did you see this?

938
00:53:52,096 --> 00:53:53,396
Another stat came out today.

939
00:53:53,536 --> 00:53:56,796
The average hiring age last year in the United States?

940
00:53:57,616 --> 00:53:58,676
No, I haven't seen that.

941
00:53:58,676 --> 00:54:00,836
Age of the average new hire last year.

942
00:54:00,896 --> 00:54:01,936
What do you think it was?

943
00:54:02,156 --> 00:54:03,036
Well, what's the old one?

944
00:54:03,156 --> 00:54:03,876
Give me the old one.

945
00:54:04,236 --> 00:54:05,296
I don't know the old one.

946
00:54:05,816 --> 00:54:06,576
Well, you got to know that.

947
00:54:06,656 --> 00:54:07,496
It's got to be a trend, right?

948
00:54:07,496 --> 00:54:07,936
That's a good point.

949
00:54:08,256 --> 00:54:08,676
That's a good point.

950
00:54:08,676 --> 00:54:15,676
I would say that in the last 20 years, it's probably gone up by a factor of five.

951
00:54:16,696 --> 00:54:17,836
Last year was 42.

952
00:54:19,256 --> 00:54:21,276
Hiring age? First job hiring age?

953
00:54:21,276 --> 00:54:22,956
Average new hire. It's a new hire.

954
00:54:23,816 --> 00:54:27,776
Is new hire meaning a new job or the person's first job?

955
00:54:27,956 --> 00:54:31,976
I think a new job. You've got job openings. What is the average age?

956
00:54:31,976 --> 00:54:33,976
So they're not hiring the kids then is the gist.

957
00:54:34,096 --> 00:54:36,916
Yes. That was the point I'm getting to. It seems very clear.

958
00:54:36,916 --> 00:54:41,836
there's this generational divide and the young ones are going to slice our throats.

959
00:54:43,836 --> 00:54:48,016
That's going to be a H.L. Mencken moment where he says sometimes you just got to get out the

960
00:54:48,016 --> 00:54:54,176
knives and start slicing throats. I made a strong case about that this year, too, where I said,

961
00:54:54,256 --> 00:55:00,496
look, you've got a generation here who you gave iPhones, turned their brains to mush.

962
00:55:00,496 --> 00:55:11,276
You then got them deeply into debt with student debt that was to get a degree of no value promising them that that's all they needed was a sheepskin.

963
00:55:11,276 --> 00:55:14,276
The debt's not dispensable.

964
00:55:15,476 --> 00:55:32,676
I've several times underscored the fact that the student loan, the student debt, took off like a scalded dog in 2008 and asked sort of a rhetorical question, is it possible that student debt was used as a monetary policy?

965
00:55:32,816 --> 00:55:34,236
And I think that's a good question.

966
00:55:34,856 --> 00:55:38,556
Just like, you know, they said we need a housing bubble to get us out of this thing, right?

967
00:55:38,556 --> 00:55:42,856
They said, look, we'll create a housing bubble and that will liquefy the banking system.

968
00:55:43,456 --> 00:55:46,796
I think they use student debt to liquefy the banking system in 08.

969
00:55:48,476 --> 00:55:49,656
A trillion five.

970
00:55:49,876 --> 00:55:50,836
A trillion five.

971
00:55:51,016 --> 00:55:52,456
Yeah, because you take your student loans.

972
00:55:52,556 --> 00:55:53,736
Obviously, you pay for your tuition.

973
00:55:54,156 --> 00:55:57,556
That feeds the middle management of the universities.

974
00:55:57,556 --> 00:55:58,176
Which just brings money.

975
00:55:58,836 --> 00:55:59,036
Loans.

976
00:55:59,116 --> 00:56:00,176
Loans create money.

977
00:56:00,396 --> 00:56:00,556
Yeah.

978
00:56:00,696 --> 00:56:00,856
Right?

979
00:56:00,956 --> 00:56:01,676
Loans create money.

980
00:56:01,676 --> 00:56:09,036
So this generation, meanwhile, the men of this generation have been told that they're evil, that everything's their fault.

981
00:56:09,536 --> 00:56:26,756
If they should somehow make the mistake of going to second base without asking for a signed contract, that they will somehow be prosecuted, that they are misogynists and being a man is a horrible thing.

982
00:56:26,756 --> 00:56:30,996
And so now you've got men who

983
00:56:30,996 --> 00:56:33,456
One of my grad students

984
00:56:33,456 --> 00:56:36,076
Who's a sweetheart of a guy

985
00:56:36,076 --> 00:56:37,776
Very impressive guy

986
00:56:37,776 --> 00:56:40,596
Never dates anyone for very long

987
00:56:40,596 --> 00:56:41,736
But he's not a hound dog

988
00:56:41,736 --> 00:56:44,116
He just, it's just like, no, I don't need it

989
00:56:44,116 --> 00:56:47,436
He says the dating sites are all liberal women

990
00:56:47,436 --> 00:56:52,796
And I said, and that's because

991
00:56:52,796 --> 00:56:55,556
All the conservative women get grabbed off and married

992
00:56:55,936 --> 00:56:57,076
And he said, yeah, probably.

993
00:56:57,916 --> 00:57:02,576
So he was dating a chick who was like super liberal for about six months.

994
00:57:02,576 --> 00:57:04,936
And then he got a job and she started talking about moving with him.

995
00:57:04,976 --> 00:57:07,236
He said, no, we're done now.

996
00:57:08,756 --> 00:57:15,176
And the liberal women are just appalled at the men because the men now don't want them.

997
00:57:16,216 --> 00:57:18,116
And Adam Carolla really said it great.

998
00:57:18,236 --> 00:57:20,536
He said, you got to watch Adam Carolla.

999
00:57:20,656 --> 00:57:21,216
Keep an eye on him.

1000
00:57:21,316 --> 00:57:22,636
He's really doing a great job.

1001
00:57:22,756 --> 00:57:23,156
He's awesome.

1002
00:57:23,196 --> 00:57:24,196
I'm trying to get him on the show.

1003
00:57:24,196 --> 00:57:25,956
Oh, that would be a big win.

1004
00:57:26,036 --> 00:57:27,796
Way better than Colm, I can tell you that much.

1005
00:57:28,676 --> 00:57:33,576
Adam pointed out that, look, we empowered women, which is great, but we didn't empower them to be assholes.

1006
00:57:34,976 --> 00:57:37,376
So now they go, oh, now we get to do this.

1007
00:57:37,716 --> 00:57:39,236
No one likes that, though.

1008
00:57:40,616 --> 00:57:43,376
No one wants you to run around just being a bitch.

1009
00:57:43,816 --> 00:57:46,796
We're seeing that in Minnesota with the ICE protest in the last couple of weeks.

1010
00:57:46,816 --> 00:57:48,876
Right, the chick who got shot in the face.

1011
00:57:49,136 --> 00:57:49,376
Yeah.

1012
00:57:50,016 --> 00:57:52,796
So we empowered women to be assholes.

1013
00:57:54,196 --> 00:57:57,296
And the fact of the matter is, you know, that doesn't really work well.

1014
00:57:58,256 --> 00:58:03,176
One of, if you look at male, female, I have a genetics major.

1015
00:58:03,356 --> 00:58:04,196
I love evolution.

1016
00:58:04,376 --> 00:58:09,296
So I look at humans through hunter-gatherer lens because that's what we evolved as.

1017
00:58:09,956 --> 00:58:15,716
I was walking through to get into the mall with my wife, and she just all of a sudden stops cold and starts fondling a blouse.

1018
00:58:15,836 --> 00:58:16,976
I go, guys, don't do that.

1019
00:58:18,136 --> 00:58:19,376
They don't fondle shit.

1020
00:58:20,316 --> 00:58:23,236
You know, when you go grocery shopping, do you read the ingredients?

1021
00:58:23,236 --> 00:58:25,556
You just throw shit in the cart as fast as you get through.

1022
00:58:25,736 --> 00:58:27,836
You're hunting mastodon for fuck's sake, right?

1023
00:58:28,256 --> 00:58:29,996
You're really trying to get out of that.

1024
00:58:30,136 --> 00:58:30,956
Get the kill.

1025
00:58:31,296 --> 00:58:32,016
Get out of there.

1026
00:58:32,296 --> 00:58:33,196
It's a dangerous place.

1027
00:58:33,336 --> 00:58:34,796
Savannah's not a place to hang out.

1028
00:58:35,036 --> 00:58:35,576
Get the thing.

1029
00:58:35,776 --> 00:58:37,556
Get through the checkout and get out of there.

1030
00:58:37,656 --> 00:58:42,536
And your wife's sitting there looking over like this, staring at shit, reading the ingredients.

1031
00:58:42,696 --> 00:58:44,776
I go, you don't know what that even means.

1032
00:58:45,056 --> 00:58:46,296
You don't know what that shit is.

1033
00:58:46,296 --> 00:58:48,876
and so

1034
00:58:48,876 --> 00:58:51,436
the women

1035
00:58:51,436 --> 00:58:54,156
the way they succeed

1036
00:58:54,156 --> 00:58:56,876
historically as hunter-gatherers

1037
00:58:56,876 --> 00:58:58,496
they've got a very difficult task

1038
00:58:58,496 --> 00:59:00,356
they need to find a spouse

1039
00:59:00,356 --> 00:59:02,316
and someone will say

1040
00:59:02,316 --> 00:59:02,896
no we don't

1041
00:59:02,896 --> 00:59:05,676
I go okay if you want to terminate your gene line

1042
00:59:05,676 --> 00:59:07,616
then don't have kids

1043
00:59:07,616 --> 00:59:09,596
but you know 4 billion years

1044
00:59:09,596 --> 00:59:11,136
all of a sudden it's become a failure

1045
00:59:11,136 --> 00:59:13,936
you just broke the branch of your tree

1046
00:59:13,936 --> 00:59:16,256
and I'm not saying everyone should have kids

1047
00:59:16,256 --> 00:59:34,936
But there is a reason why they gave us a dick, you know, and the way they've got this terrible task of finding a guy who's strong, a protector, a provider who doesn't beat the fuck out of them.

1048
00:59:35,876 --> 00:59:40,036
Right. And that's a knife edge that you've got to find.

1049
00:59:40,036 --> 00:59:50,036
And the way you do that is you tame the men using your guile, your cunning, because they can destroy you at will.

1050
00:59:50,736 --> 00:59:53,456
So you have to destroy their soul somehow.

1051
00:59:54,416 --> 00:59:56,396
And tell me, you've been married long enough.

1052
00:59:56,476 --> 00:59:59,096
You know what soul destruction can look like on a bad day.

1053
00:59:59,996 --> 01:00:04,756
And yet somehow they seem to have lost that.

1054
01:00:06,076 --> 01:00:08,776
And they seem like, no, we just treat them like shit all the time.

1055
01:00:08,776 --> 01:00:12,616
I go, well, they won't want to hang out with you.

1056
01:00:13,256 --> 01:00:21,416
Yeah, and that's a crisis that is building as well in the background.

1057
01:00:21,416 --> 01:00:22,416
So now –

1058
01:00:22,416 --> 01:00:29,056
When they get to like 35, 40, no partner, no kids, and then 40 more years left of life.

1059
01:00:29,096 --> 01:00:34,916
And you see the videos on YouTube and stuff where some chick is hotter than a pistol at 40 and she's going, I can't find a guy.

1060
01:00:35,856 --> 01:00:38,736
I go, well, based on your face, it's not your physical attributes.

1061
01:00:38,776 --> 01:00:39,676
Let's start there.

1062
01:00:41,576 --> 01:00:46,376
So then what happens is this generation who is now beaten like a rented mule, right?

1063
01:00:46,436 --> 01:00:48,376
This generation has been beaten down.

1064
01:00:48,976 --> 01:00:51,116
They have no chance of buying a goddamn house.

1065
01:00:51,956 --> 01:00:55,856
You know how they say we got to lower rates so they can afford houses?

1066
01:00:56,256 --> 01:01:06,096
There's a plot in my year and review that shows that over the last 20 years, the average age of first-time homebuyers is not only now 31, but it rose linearly.

1067
01:01:06,496 --> 01:01:08,536
Actually, over the last 40 years, I think the plot is.

1068
01:01:08,536 --> 01:01:09,776
I can't remember, many decades.

1069
01:01:09,856 --> 01:01:10,196
How's that?

1070
01:01:11,576 --> 01:01:13,256
It's risen monotonically.

1071
01:01:14,496 --> 01:01:16,176
And I'm going, let me see if I got this right.

1072
01:01:16,816 --> 01:01:22,336
It's got, the average age is getting higher and higher and higher, meaning people can't afford to buy first houses.

1073
01:01:23,616 --> 01:01:28,796
While the interest rates monotonically dropped, and you're telling me lower rates will make houses more affordable.

1074
01:01:28,996 --> 01:01:29,956
How is that possible?

1075
01:01:31,576 --> 01:01:36,636
The point being is, as you lower the rates, the price of the house not only goes up, but appears to go up higher.

1076
01:01:36,636 --> 01:01:42,196
or their jobs are just sucking linearly worse or both.

1077
01:01:43,036 --> 01:01:43,516
Yeah.

1078
01:01:43,856 --> 01:01:44,396
I mean, people.

1079
01:01:44,656 --> 01:01:45,096
Right there.

1080
01:01:45,336 --> 01:01:48,256
That's the age of the first time homebuyer.

1081
01:01:48,776 --> 01:01:50,516
What's the beginning year?

1082
01:01:50,556 --> 01:01:52,236
I can't see it from my vantage point.

1083
01:01:52,316 --> 01:01:53,376
What's the first year in that?

1084
01:01:53,476 --> 01:01:54,416
1980 or something?

1085
01:01:56,116 --> 01:01:56,776
Let me see.

1086
01:01:57,696 --> 01:01:58,556
It is.

1087
01:01:59,956 --> 01:02:00,496
Here I go.

1088
01:02:00,496 --> 01:02:03,416
Look at that chart right there.

1089
01:02:03,536 --> 01:02:03,796
Go around.

1090
01:02:04,156 --> 01:02:04,736
Look at that.

1091
01:02:04,856 --> 01:02:04,996
Right.

1092
01:02:05,096 --> 01:02:06,216
That's student debt.

1093
01:02:06,636 --> 01:02:09,056
Look at the GFC.

1094
01:02:09,056 --> 01:02:14,136
You telling me that student debt took off just by chance?

1095
01:02:14,136 --> 01:02:16,076
That's monetary policy for fuck's sake.

1096
01:02:16,076 --> 01:02:17,256
That's a great point.

1097
01:02:17,256 --> 01:02:19,756
This started in 1981 or 1980.

1098
01:02:19,756 --> 01:02:24,456
So for four decades, while rates monetarily dropped,

1099
01:02:24,456 --> 01:02:37,434
which allowed us to crank on an economy hard by dropping rates the average age went up You telling me okay now we should lower rates to make housing more affordable

1100
01:02:37,814 --> 01:02:39,874
It didn't work for 40 years.

1101
01:02:41,574 --> 01:02:43,234
Then you have the home prices here.

1102
01:02:44,014 --> 01:02:44,494
Right.

1103
01:02:44,734 --> 01:02:47,174
So the home prices outraced the dropping rates.

1104
01:02:47,294 --> 01:02:47,934
Now, here's the deal.

1105
01:02:48,054 --> 01:02:49,194
So these guys have gotten fucked.

1106
01:02:49,794 --> 01:02:50,874
They're now deeply in debt.

1107
01:02:50,874 --> 01:02:55,654
They're earning $25K as a barista because they majored in sociology.

1108
01:02:56,514 --> 01:02:57,694
They can't get married.

1109
01:02:57,874 --> 01:02:59,754
Of course, male baristas are probably gay anyways.

1110
01:02:59,974 --> 01:03:09,414
But they can't – they then are now – they're talking about lowering the rates and putting out 50-year mortgages.

1111
01:03:09,554 --> 01:03:10,874
Tell me that wasn't a lead balloon.

1112
01:03:11,614 --> 01:03:12,294
Holy moly.

1113
01:03:12,334 --> 01:03:13,554
That landed like a brick.

1114
01:03:14,954 --> 01:03:16,734
You know when the 30-year mortgage was invented?

1115
01:03:16,854 --> 01:03:17,554
This is entertaining.

1116
01:03:18,234 --> 01:03:19,094
It was.

1117
01:03:19,094 --> 01:03:20,114
The 1930s.

1118
01:03:20,114 --> 01:03:20,594
Yes.

1119
01:03:20,874 --> 01:03:21,274
Right.

1120
01:03:21,374 --> 01:03:23,394
After the great to make cars, houses more affordable.

1121
01:03:23,754 --> 01:03:23,994
Yep.

1122
01:03:24,594 --> 01:03:24,874
Right.

1123
01:03:24,954 --> 01:03:25,394
Did it work?

1124
01:03:25,654 --> 01:03:26,134
I don't know.

1125
01:03:26,974 --> 01:03:30,934
So in any event, so now what we're going to do, why would you, why would you lower rates

1126
01:03:30,934 --> 01:03:32,234
so low that they can afford it now?

1127
01:03:33,254 --> 01:03:37,074
So that the boomers can get out of their houses without taking any kind of loss.

1128
01:03:37,834 --> 01:03:44,194
So they're now going to, by going to super low rates, they're going to make houses stay

1129
01:03:44,194 --> 01:03:50,314
way overpriced so that this younger generation can yet again get totally fucked.

1130
01:03:50,874 --> 01:03:53,914
because they'll own a house they paid too much for,

1131
01:03:54,054 --> 01:03:56,694
and then rates will find a way to climb because they will.

1132
01:03:56,814 --> 01:03:57,194
They will.

1133
01:03:57,294 --> 01:03:58,354
They flat out always do.

1134
01:03:58,994 --> 01:04:00,274
Bonds become very expensive.

1135
01:04:00,414 --> 01:04:01,174
They'll get cheap again.

1136
01:04:02,614 --> 01:04:03,994
And we're going to hump them again.

1137
01:04:05,194 --> 01:04:07,234
Well, I mean, going back to you asked me for a reference point

1138
01:04:07,234 --> 01:04:10,114
for the average age of a new hire,

1139
01:04:10,214 --> 01:04:12,874
and 2022 is 40.5 years old.

1140
01:04:13,094 --> 01:04:15,574
So three years went up a year and a half to 42.

1141
01:04:16,194 --> 01:04:18,974
And, like, if you factor that into what you're just describing now,

1142
01:04:18,974 --> 01:04:25,474
It's like the younger kids aren't even getting the jobs to even be able to potentially buy a house that's going up.

1143
01:04:26,434 --> 01:04:37,634
They don't want to get married, so we got a 1.6 birth production rate, which means our demographics are sliding.

1144
01:04:38,834 --> 01:04:40,974
I actually don't have a problem with that.

1145
01:04:41,054 --> 01:04:46,214
I think in some sense Japan leads the world by their demographic story being dealt with.

1146
01:04:46,214 --> 01:04:48,934
So Japan now apparently is depressing because everyone is old.

1147
01:04:49,934 --> 01:04:54,294
But they have muscled their way through the shifting demographics.

1148
01:04:54,714 --> 01:04:59,154
So they're the closest to being done with the demographic downswing.

1149
01:04:59,774 --> 01:05:02,074
The rest of the countries are just starting it.

1150
01:05:02,334 --> 01:05:04,814
Demographics is a big part of economics.

1151
01:05:05,114 --> 01:05:10,554
Well, and to think that anybody is going to be able to do what Japan did by weathering the demographic storm is a bit naive.

1152
01:05:10,554 --> 01:05:10,974
No chance.

1153
01:05:10,974 --> 01:05:12,774
Because they have cultural homogeneity.

1154
01:05:13,914 --> 01:05:14,354
Exactly.

1155
01:05:14,354 --> 01:05:14,594
Exactly.

1156
01:05:14,594 --> 01:05:16,154
In agriculture, that does not exist.

1157
01:05:16,434 --> 01:05:16,514
Exactly.

1158
01:05:16,834 --> 01:05:20,234
You're not going to have ice battles in the street in Japan.

1159
01:05:20,914 --> 01:05:21,174
No.

1160
01:05:21,714 --> 01:05:26,654
And God, the fourth turning is rolling.

1161
01:05:27,194 --> 01:05:28,614
It's right on schedule.

1162
01:05:28,794 --> 01:05:30,314
It is so right on schedule.

1163
01:05:30,694 --> 01:05:32,714
How bad do you think it's going to get is the question.

1164
01:05:33,414 --> 01:05:35,334
You're going to wish you could move out of the country?

1165
01:05:36,014 --> 01:05:36,814
I'm not leaving.

1166
01:05:37,174 --> 01:05:37,634
I'm not leaving.

1167
01:05:37,634 --> 01:05:38,674
I'm not leaving either.

1168
01:05:39,594 --> 01:05:40,774
I'm too old for this shit.

1169
01:05:40,774 --> 01:05:41,374
I actually just moved.

1170
01:05:41,474 --> 01:05:44,334
I don't know if you know this, but I moved back home to the Philadelphia area.

1171
01:05:44,354 --> 01:05:45,954
where I was born and raised. My wife was too.

1172
01:05:46,614 --> 01:05:48,994
Getting closer to my roots, back to the Shire.

1173
01:05:49,994 --> 01:05:54,354
Is Philadelphia area, is it in the burbs or is it in Philadelphia?

1174
01:05:54,834 --> 01:05:55,514
In the burbs.

1175
01:05:56,034 --> 01:05:57,354
My son was in Philadelphia.

1176
01:05:58,614 --> 01:06:00,194
What part? You get a pen?

1177
01:06:00,874 --> 01:06:05,114
Best I can tell, it was in the most ghetto-y part imaginable.

1178
01:06:05,474 --> 01:06:09,254
We took the wrong turn and we ended up in the Philly hood pretty fast.

1179
01:06:09,634 --> 01:06:13,474
He was probably in Fairmount by North Philly or West Philly.

1180
01:06:13,474 --> 01:06:20,134
I don't remember. All I know is I wanted to get him out of there. My son's gay and he was hanging out a rough gay crowd.

1181
01:06:21,134 --> 01:06:25,994
You know, too many drugs, that sort of thing. And so so I had a meeting in Philadelphia.

1182
01:06:26,454 --> 01:06:29,674
He's a musician. I had a meeting in Philadelphia.

1183
01:06:30,274 --> 01:06:35,534
And so I went down to the meeting and my goal was to get him out of Philadelphia.

1184
01:06:35,974 --> 01:06:39,834
So I basically said to him, here's the deal. Philadelphia sucks.

1185
01:06:39,834 --> 01:06:43,174
living in the ghetto sucks

1186
01:06:43,174 --> 01:06:44,834
and I said

1187
01:06:44,834 --> 01:06:48,974
why don't you ask

1188
01:06:48,974 --> 01:06:51,714
anywhere you want

1189
01:06:51,714 --> 01:06:53,394
you would like to live

1190
01:06:53,394 --> 01:06:56,474
Aspen, Deer Valley, you name it

1191
01:06:56,474 --> 01:06:58,254
ski resort, I don't care

1192
01:06:58,254 --> 01:07:01,274
I will help you get there, help you get set up

1193
01:07:01,274 --> 01:07:03,394
get out of Philadelphia

1194
01:07:03,394 --> 01:07:04,574
and he said okay

1195
01:07:04,574 --> 01:07:06,894
my elder said

1196
01:07:06,894 --> 01:07:09,094
you are the whisperer dad

1197
01:07:09,094 --> 01:07:12,694
that was amazing. I said, well, I pretty much made an offer. He couldn't refuse.

1198
01:07:13,054 --> 01:07:13,734
What year was this?

1199
01:07:14,554 --> 01:07:18,754
Oh, this is probably 10 years ago. He's now totally settled in. He's now totally behaved,

1200
01:07:18,854 --> 01:07:24,634
but I was worried he was going to become a junkie. Actually. It's just the risks were too high.

1201
01:07:25,194 --> 01:07:28,334
There are a Philly was the per capita of the country for a while there. So,

1202
01:07:28,594 --> 01:07:33,674
yeah. So I wanted to get him out of there. And so now, now he's in Boston. He's in an artist co-op.

1203
01:07:33,674 --> 01:07:47,654
You want a good deal? He's got a thousand square foot apartment in a beautiful neighborhood. You can walk around all night there near the convention center, and he pays $900 a month.

1204
01:07:47,654 --> 01:07:50,734
Damn. Damn. Damn.

1205
01:07:51,614 --> 01:07:57,454
The bank run on the bank of debt is not as bad as it could be, I'll tell you.

1206
01:07:57,774 --> 01:07:59,374
I still help him.

1207
01:08:00,414 --> 01:08:03,874
Ironically, he's in Philadelphia today because there is...

1208
01:08:03,874 --> 01:08:11,274
I shouldn't say this because the auction's not over,

1209
01:08:11,454 --> 01:08:15,654
but he thinks he spotted an early Italian violin buried in an auction.

1210
01:08:15,874 --> 01:08:17,434
What is the...

1211
01:08:17,654 --> 01:08:18,614
What is the auction over?

1212
01:08:19,354 --> 01:08:20,174
I don't know.

1213
01:08:20,454 --> 01:08:24,594
I just know he went down to see the thing to make sure that he wasn't bidding on bullshit.

1214
01:08:25,054 --> 01:08:29,054
I wonder if my wife's been big into auctions as well.

1215
01:08:29,054 --> 01:08:33,654
I think I know the auction house he may be at in Port Richmond.

1216
01:08:33,654 --> 01:08:36,954
Well, this is literally just an estate auction.

1217
01:08:37,454 --> 01:08:37,654
Yeah.

1218
01:08:38,374 --> 01:08:40,794
It is not Theresia or anything like that.

1219
01:08:41,194 --> 01:08:43,694
This is actually a fascinating topic, building on what we were.

1220
01:08:44,274 --> 01:08:46,114
We're in the process of buying a new house.

1221
01:08:46,294 --> 01:08:47,274
We're in a rental now.

1222
01:08:47,654 --> 01:08:48,814
We've got to furnish it.

1223
01:08:49,014 --> 01:08:50,234
It's much bigger than the rental.

1224
01:08:50,734 --> 01:08:51,914
We've just been taking advantage of it.

1225
01:08:51,914 --> 01:08:52,754
How many square feet?

1226
01:08:54,054 --> 01:08:55,974
I don't know square feet.

1227
01:08:56,074 --> 01:08:56,654
Six bedrooms.

1228
01:08:57,434 --> 01:08:58,314
Six bedrooms?

1229
01:08:58,614 --> 01:08:59,334
With an office.

1230
01:09:00,094 --> 01:09:02,134
Okay, so you're still banging your wife then.

1231
01:09:03,454 --> 01:09:04,394
Yeah, we've got three.

1232
01:09:04,494 --> 01:09:07,194
We've had another kid since we last talked as well.

1233
01:09:07,234 --> 01:09:07,494
Really?

1234
01:09:07,874 --> 01:09:08,134
Yeah.

1235
01:09:08,794 --> 01:09:09,714
Jesus Christ.

1236
01:09:09,714 --> 01:09:12,114
It's time to tie the tubes, dude.

1237
01:09:12,134 --> 01:09:12,794
No, no, no.

1238
01:09:12,834 --> 01:09:13,454
Never, never.

1239
01:09:13,794 --> 01:09:15,314
You just said we had a fertility crisis.

1240
01:09:15,434 --> 01:09:16,334
Somebody's got to go to work.

1241
01:09:16,334 --> 01:09:20,514
This is true, but you don't have to solve it single-handedly.

1242
01:09:21,714 --> 01:09:23,074
Well, I'm going to try. I'm kidding.

1243
01:09:24,634 --> 01:09:27,194
No, but he's a state auction. This is weird.

1244
01:09:28,214 --> 01:09:31,494
The kids don't want the parents' heirlooms.

1245
01:09:31,614 --> 01:09:33,274
We're getting stuff on pennies on the house.

1246
01:09:33,274 --> 01:09:36,694
Oh, no. So when I was a kid, I was a collector.

1247
01:09:36,734 --> 01:09:38,194
There's a collector gene, I think.

1248
01:09:38,254 --> 01:09:40,094
I think some kids just love to collect.

1249
01:09:40,174 --> 01:09:41,634
So I collected coins and stamps.

1250
01:09:41,634 --> 01:09:47,074
I collected stamps from age 8 to 12 and sold my collection for $1,400.

1251
01:09:48,514 --> 01:09:51,654
That's a pretty good price tag back in 81.

1252
01:09:53,394 --> 01:09:55,814
It turns out I sold it at the peak.

1253
01:09:55,974 --> 01:09:57,274
It was the peak of the stamp market.

1254
01:09:57,774 --> 01:09:59,034
You want to see a bear market?

1255
01:09:59,394 --> 01:10:00,374
Look at stamp collecting.

1256
01:10:01,574 --> 01:10:05,074
You can't find a stamp collector who's under 80 years old at this point.

1257
01:10:05,234 --> 01:10:06,954
There's just 0.0 interest.

1258
01:10:06,954 --> 01:10:10,894
I've talked to dealers saying, what would rejuvenate this market?

1259
01:10:10,894 --> 01:10:17,214
What would define a bottom in philately, which sounds like sexually active people?

1260
01:10:18,934 --> 01:10:20,634
And and they just don't know.

1261
01:10:20,734 --> 01:10:22,434
They don't see a generation coming.

1262
01:10:22,694 --> 01:10:28,354
So the very high end stuff gets bought because you got boomers with money who still collected.

1263
01:10:29,334 --> 01:10:33,394
But but I then bought a house and I went to furnish it.

1264
01:10:33,454 --> 01:10:38,094
And I started going to just garage sales and shit because I had no money after I bought the house.

1265
01:10:38,094 --> 01:10:42,294
which by the way, after one year at Cornell, I could buy a house back in 1981,

1266
01:10:42,534 --> 01:10:46,034
even though interest rates were 17%. Why? Because they were cheap.

1267
01:10:49,734 --> 01:10:54,034
And then, and then I started going to barn sales and stuff.

1268
01:10:54,114 --> 01:10:56,094
I started seeing something. I go, really, I can buy that,

1269
01:10:56,094 --> 01:10:59,374
that 150 year old chair for how many bucks. Right.

1270
01:10:59,494 --> 01:11:05,274
And then I was going to buy this Victorian couch and then I decided against it.

1271
01:11:05,274 --> 01:11:07,954
And then I bought this Pennsylvania Dutch blanket chest.

1272
01:11:08,094 --> 01:11:09,834
I realized I'm a grunge guy.

1273
01:11:10,514 --> 01:11:13,074
I'm a painted furniture grunge guy.

1274
01:11:13,174 --> 01:11:14,234
I'm not Victorian.

1275
01:11:14,554 --> 01:11:16,674
That's way not right for me.

1276
01:11:17,414 --> 01:11:20,154
So buying this one blanket chest was kind of a turning point for me.

1277
01:11:20,214 --> 01:11:25,654
So my house is filled with high boys and slant front desks and things like that, 18th century stuff.

1278
01:11:26,034 --> 01:11:28,734
And it's worth a fraction of what I paid.

1279
01:11:30,934 --> 01:11:31,954
But I like it.

1280
01:11:31,954 --> 01:11:34,414
Is it because the younger generations don't appreciate it?

1281
01:11:34,454 --> 01:11:35,694
Because we're buying stuff.

1282
01:11:35,934 --> 01:11:37,894
I like the old stuff because it's built better.

1283
01:11:38,094 --> 01:12:00,654
Oh, I can find you a walnut, 18th century walnut desk that is cheaper than the cost of the walnut. That's how crazy it is. And it is because the younger generation A has no money, B is not forming households, and C, the whole country craze, which was huge when I was young.

1284
01:12:00,654 --> 01:12:07,594
that the whole building a household was on the back of a country living craze

1285
01:12:07,594 --> 01:12:12,554
and so you'd open up you know better homes and gardens and you'd see

1286
01:12:12,554 --> 01:12:21,714
you know furnishings with with painted furniture and stuff in it and um and and and so i i was at

1287
01:12:21,714 --> 01:12:29,194
a high boy i was i was at a philadelphia antique show um i'm seeing a guy named david scorse she's

1288
01:12:29,194 --> 01:12:36,894
a very famous dealer, very famous dealer actually. And, and I was looking at a high boy and I said,

1289
01:12:36,994 --> 01:12:42,534
I said, you know, back in, back in, you know, three, three decades ago, that high boy at a

1290
01:12:42,534 --> 01:12:47,534
Withington auction would cost three times that. And he says, that's exactly right. Exactly right.

1291
01:12:48,014 --> 01:12:53,174
So yeah, you can pick, I see, I see stuff sell at auction. I can't believe I go, oh my God,

1292
01:12:53,174 --> 01:12:54,554
My eyes are watering.

1293
01:12:55,234 --> 01:12:56,654
We just bought some 15th century,

1294
01:12:56,834 --> 01:13:00,774
like original sketches for dirt cheap.

1295
01:13:01,834 --> 01:13:02,914
I forget the artist.

1296
01:13:03,034 --> 01:13:03,714
My wife's doing that.

1297
01:13:03,874 --> 01:13:05,214
I don't know that market.

1298
01:13:05,434 --> 01:13:06,674
I don't know that market.

1299
01:13:07,014 --> 01:13:09,514
I now do know the violin market better.

1300
01:13:09,994 --> 01:13:10,674
I bought,

1301
01:13:10,814 --> 01:13:14,974
I bought my son a 1735 Carlo Antonio Testore violin.

1302
01:13:15,774 --> 01:13:16,534
I remember,

1303
01:13:16,694 --> 01:13:18,334
I think two or three episodes of you,

1304
01:13:18,574 --> 01:13:19,694
you had just bought that.

1305
01:13:20,174 --> 01:13:20,614
Right.

1306
01:13:20,614 --> 01:13:21,094
And,

1307
01:13:21,094 --> 01:13:21,594
and I,

1308
01:13:21,734 --> 01:13:22,234
and,

1309
01:13:22,234 --> 01:13:25,294
And he went on a, I sent him to Europe.

1310
01:13:25,874 --> 01:13:27,434
Actually, he paid for it.

1311
01:13:28,254 --> 01:13:29,914
I don't remember quite how.

1312
01:13:30,114 --> 01:13:31,694
There's probably some bank of debt in there.

1313
01:13:32,574 --> 01:13:34,914
And he traveled Europe for about six weeks.

1314
01:13:34,914 --> 01:13:39,214
And the entire housing of his trip cost $2,700.

1315
01:13:39,854 --> 01:13:43,394
He managed to live cheap and hostels and stuff.

1316
01:13:44,234 --> 01:13:47,714
And he went to every dealer, every auction house,

1317
01:13:47,854 --> 01:13:50,674
every museum all across Europe, just a nonstop tour.

1318
01:13:50,674 --> 01:13:53,714
and one of the last two days he went to a Terezio auction,

1319
01:13:53,734 --> 01:13:55,374
which is the biggest auctioneer in the world.

1320
01:13:56,654 --> 01:13:58,274
And there was this violin.

1321
01:13:58,434 --> 01:13:59,574
He said, this is the one right here.

1322
01:14:00,134 --> 01:14:01,234
And he bought it.

1323
01:14:01,294 --> 01:14:03,154
And it's just, it's a great, great violin.

1324
01:14:03,794 --> 01:14:06,514
When I buy antiques, what I notice is that the,

1325
01:14:07,154 --> 01:14:08,494
your opinion of the antique,

1326
01:14:08,654 --> 01:14:10,854
the day you bring it home either goes up or down.

1327
01:14:11,694 --> 01:14:13,634
It just doesn't hold fixed.

1328
01:14:13,734 --> 01:14:15,254
You think you got the right thing and you go,

1329
01:14:15,314 --> 01:14:16,254
oh, look at the blemish.

1330
01:14:16,374 --> 01:14:17,414
Oh, that's been repainted.

1331
01:14:17,534 --> 01:14:18,594
Oh, that's been restored.

1332
01:14:18,594 --> 01:14:24,274
Or you go, oh, that's just a fucking beauty, and this is just – he thinks it's just the greatest violin.

1333
01:14:24,754 --> 01:14:28,074
So that's good because he could be full of shit, but at least he's happy about it.

1334
01:14:28,594 --> 01:14:28,614
Yeah.

1335
01:14:29,454 --> 01:14:37,234
No, that's the – it is – if you're out there, you're listening, and you're looking for durable, good stuff.

1336
01:14:37,754 --> 01:14:43,654
As Dave just mentioned, you may not like it when you bring it home, but I think you'll have a good success rate if you spend some time into it.

1337
01:14:43,654 --> 01:14:47,154
It was great, and I didn't get to use it because I cut the year short.

1338
01:14:47,374 --> 01:14:52,714
But the new president, I think it's of Sweden, was the former CEO of IKEA.

1339
01:14:54,854 --> 01:14:56,674
And someone posted the funniest thing.

1340
01:14:56,754 --> 01:15:00,074
They said, we're now waiting with bated breath, watching him put together his cabinet.

1341
01:15:03,254 --> 01:15:04,094
That's a good one.

1342
01:15:04,434 --> 01:15:05,554
That was a good one.

1343
01:15:05,554 --> 01:15:10,554
I put out a tweet the other day that got like 20,000, which I stole.

1344
01:15:10,694 --> 01:15:12,014
But people think I came up with this.

1345
01:15:12,074 --> 01:15:12,634
Oh, yeah, whatever.

1346
01:15:12,634 --> 01:15:20,754
And I said, if you're sitting in public and someone sits down next to you, just stare straight ahead and say, did you bring the money?

1347
01:15:24,834 --> 01:15:27,214
Did you see Rudy Haven't Seen Sweet?

1348
01:15:27,294 --> 01:15:28,314
They went bananas.

1349
01:15:28,854 --> 01:15:34,274
He showed footage of Erica Kirk walking on a stage with fireworks.

1350
01:15:34,794 --> 01:15:39,254
And he says, you know, if I died, I'd worry my wife got married right away.

1351
01:15:39,254 --> 01:15:41,194
I wouldn't expect pyrotechnics.

1352
01:15:41,714 --> 01:15:42,574
That's right.

1353
01:15:42,634 --> 01:15:45,274
And it just went totally viral.

1354
01:15:45,994 --> 01:15:50,054
And so I got the $299,000, and I gave it one last nudge.

1355
01:15:50,154 --> 01:15:52,794
I said, can't we get Rudy to $300,000 on this tweet?

1356
01:15:53,034 --> 01:15:56,794
But that created, I believe that was the beginning of the Erica Kirk memes.

1357
01:15:57,594 --> 01:16:02,974
Because after that, my Twitter feed was just filled with pyrotechnics and Erica Kirk memes.

1358
01:16:02,974 --> 01:16:04,174
What is your theory there?

1359
01:16:05,274 --> 01:16:07,034
Oh, I think she's totally MKUltra.

1360
01:16:07,414 --> 01:16:07,674
Totally.

1361
01:16:08,894 --> 01:16:09,054
Yeah.

1362
01:16:09,054 --> 01:16:19,154
I think she's – when I say MKUltra, for those who don't know how sick this world is, MKUltra is where they grab you when you're maybe five years old and they brainwash you and they turn you schizophrenic.

1363
01:16:19,514 --> 01:16:20,994
They reassemble your personality.

1364
01:16:21,554 --> 01:16:24,734
They torture you like a North Korean might in a POW camp.

1365
01:16:25,634 --> 01:16:31,574
And then they – it's a born identity, and they train you to do shit.

1366
01:16:31,854 --> 01:16:33,054
And I think Erica Kirk was –

1367
01:16:33,794 --> 01:16:34,694
Wasn't that confirmed?

1368
01:16:34,814 --> 01:16:35,674
Wasn't Ted Kaczynski?

1369
01:16:36,274 --> 01:16:37,794
Ted Kaczynski was.

1370
01:16:37,794 --> 01:16:40,874
Charles Manson may have been

1371
01:16:40,874 --> 01:16:43,034
David Berkowitz

1372
01:16:43,034 --> 01:16:45,314
was part of a satanic cult

1373
01:16:45,314 --> 01:16:46,474
Kamala was a

1374
01:16:46,474 --> 01:16:48,714
I think Kamala was

1375
01:16:48,714 --> 01:16:52,014
I was bird dogging that story

1376
01:16:52,014 --> 01:16:53,674
and then a person who spent three years

1377
01:16:53,674 --> 01:16:54,994
studying MKUltra

1378
01:16:54,994 --> 01:16:56,754
Time Magazine

1379
01:16:56,754 --> 01:16:59,514
Bureau Head of Europe

1380
01:16:59,514 --> 01:17:02,194
her mother got nailed by it

1381
01:17:02,194 --> 01:17:02,954
she found out

1382
01:17:02,954 --> 01:17:05,634
and so she dropped her job and started studying it

1383
01:17:05,634 --> 01:17:07,734
and she said Kamala has all the traits

1384
01:17:07,734 --> 01:17:12,914
and the trait I see most that really jumps out at me,

1385
01:17:12,974 --> 01:17:14,914
I've seen in many victims, including a couple,

1386
01:17:15,034 --> 01:17:17,174
I was on a Zoom call with Kathy O'Brien.

1387
01:17:17,314 --> 01:17:21,034
You ought to get some of these guys on your call.

1388
01:17:21,534 --> 01:17:22,394
Logan, take notes.

1389
01:17:23,314 --> 01:17:24,834
Yeah, I can get you their emails.

1390
01:17:25,734 --> 01:17:28,374
So I was on a Zoom call with Kathy O'Brien and Juliet Angle

1391
01:17:28,374 --> 01:17:33,734
and what you notice is they have exceedingly flat personalities

1392
01:17:33,734 --> 01:17:36,954
and I had long chats with Nick Bryan

1393
01:17:36,954 --> 01:17:41,354
who wrote the Franklin scandal, which Nick's one of the most scholarly guys of them all,

1394
01:17:41,594 --> 01:17:42,374
studying the shit.

1395
01:17:42,894 --> 01:17:47,594
I don't know if they all have it, but I once watched a TED Talk by a chick talking about

1396
01:17:47,594 --> 01:17:50,234
why pedophilia is a sexual choice.

1397
01:17:51,534 --> 01:17:53,374
It's just a sexual preference.

1398
01:17:54,214 --> 01:17:57,114
And I was watching her, and within 30 seconds I go, this chick's been trafficked.

1399
01:17:58,554 --> 01:18:01,074
Traffic doesn't just mean you were turned into a hooker.

1400
01:18:01,074 --> 01:18:05,834
Traffic really means that CIA-quality brainwashing was involved.

1401
01:18:05,834 --> 01:18:11,014
so you watch Erica Kirk and there's just nothing there

1402
01:18:11,014 --> 01:18:13,314
there's nothing under the hood that makes any sense

1403
01:18:13,314 --> 01:18:15,374
and then it gets really weird

1404
01:18:15,374 --> 01:18:18,794
so I was going to write about Charlie Kirk

1405
01:18:18,794 --> 01:18:20,414
but it led back to Israel

1406
01:18:20,414 --> 01:18:22,134
and I was so sick of fighting the Zionists

1407
01:18:22,134 --> 01:18:23,934
I go I don't need to write about Charlie Kirk

1408
01:18:23,934 --> 01:18:27,554
and then I had some rabid Zionists on my Twitter feed

1409
01:18:27,554 --> 01:18:31,574
saying you don't have any evidence that Israel did it

1410
01:18:31,574 --> 01:18:33,074
and I go no I don't have evidence

1411
01:18:33,074 --> 01:18:37,114
or if I do, I'll present it on my terms at my time.

1412
01:18:37,174 --> 01:18:38,454
And he just kept pestering me.

1413
01:18:39,074 --> 01:18:41,094
I go, I don't need to deal with you, you shit.

1414
01:18:41,754 --> 01:18:43,654
I just don't need this kind of crap.

1415
01:18:43,774 --> 01:18:45,134
I watched Candace Owens' battle.

1416
01:18:45,274 --> 01:18:47,694
I go, do I want to spend the next 15 years of my life doing that?

1417
01:18:47,794 --> 01:18:48,034
No.

1418
01:18:48,134 --> 01:18:49,054
Do I want to be Nick Fuentes?

1419
01:18:49,234 --> 01:18:49,594
No.

1420
01:18:50,674 --> 01:18:52,774
And so I kind of backed away.

1421
01:18:53,134 --> 01:18:54,054
I feel like a pussy.

1422
01:18:54,614 --> 01:18:55,594
I actually do feel like a pussy.

1423
01:18:55,594 --> 01:18:58,554
You got to decide what to focus your time on, right?

1424
01:18:58,934 --> 01:18:59,394
That's right.

1425
01:18:59,674 --> 01:19:02,374
So Erica Kirk, everything's wrong with that story.

1426
01:19:02,374 --> 01:19:05,074
And I think she knew he was going to be whacked.

1427
01:19:05,194 --> 01:19:06,774
I think the marriage was fake.

1428
01:19:07,534 --> 01:19:09,034
I don't even think they were married.

1429
01:19:10,454 --> 01:19:17,914
They did a podcast together one day and they were taking questions from the internet.

1430
01:19:18,934 --> 01:19:20,794
And Charlie says, oh, here's an easy one.

1431
01:19:21,074 --> 01:19:26,074
He says, he asked two questions, but the critical one was, what year did you get married?

1432
01:19:26,134 --> 01:19:27,554
Now, they've been married for four years.

1433
01:19:27,554 --> 01:19:30,854
if I asked your wife what year she got married,

1434
01:19:31,494 --> 01:19:34,654
she'd be able to answer that fucking question, right?

1435
01:19:35,134 --> 01:19:36,774
Especially four years into it.

1436
01:19:36,974 --> 01:19:38,494
My wife has now suppressed it.

1437
01:19:38,794 --> 01:19:40,374
It's now a suppressed memory.

1438
01:19:40,474 --> 01:19:41,394
She's trying to forget it.

1439
01:19:41,674 --> 01:19:44,294
But it is 40 years ago as of this month.

1440
01:19:45,914 --> 01:19:47,674
I'm not sure we're going to make it to 41

1441
01:19:47,674 --> 01:19:48,714
if she keeps beating on me.

1442
01:19:50,374 --> 01:19:53,994
So Erica Kirk gets asked,

1443
01:19:53,994 --> 01:19:55,094
what year did you get married?

1444
01:19:55,174 --> 01:19:55,854
And she goes like this.

1445
01:19:55,994 --> 01:19:57,034
This is exactly how she did it.

1446
01:19:57,034 --> 01:19:59,174
She goes, 2021?

1447
01:20:02,754 --> 01:20:06,014
And Charlie jumps right in and starts covering for her.

1448
01:20:06,974 --> 01:20:10,974
And then she starts going, well, you know, it's so chaotic and, you know, with all the kids and stuff.

1449
01:20:10,974 --> 01:20:13,974
And by the way, Erica Kirk's kids are nowhere in sight.

1450
01:20:14,894 --> 01:20:16,014
I was saying, where are your kids?

1451
01:20:16,094 --> 01:20:16,454
Where are your kids?

1452
01:20:16,654 --> 01:20:17,474
They were props.

1453
01:20:19,234 --> 01:20:20,194
You think so?

1454
01:20:20,614 --> 01:20:26,674
Well, boot up a Google and search Erica Kirk's kids or Charlie Kirk's kids and find one that shows a face.

1455
01:20:27,034 --> 01:20:30,694
Everyone says, well, you wouldn't want your kid's face to be on the internet.

1456
01:20:30,814 --> 01:20:32,394
I go, well, do it with Candice Owens.

1457
01:20:32,454 --> 01:20:33,374
You'll find her kids.

1458
01:20:35,234 --> 01:20:38,494
And they're photoshopped away.

1459
01:20:39,314 --> 01:20:40,134
There are no pictures.

1460
01:20:40,254 --> 01:20:44,994
So there's these family photos where each is holding a kid, but their face is facing the wrong way.

1461
01:20:45,314 --> 01:20:46,854
Always, always, always.

1462
01:20:47,194 --> 01:20:55,174
There's one that's really telling where his daughter is in the front seat of the car, and she's barely lingual.

1463
01:20:55,174 --> 01:20:56,174
She's like three years old.

1464
01:20:56,174 --> 01:20:58,254
blah, blah, blah, blah. She's talking, but you know what?

1465
01:20:58,354 --> 01:21:02,334
She's at the stage where she's just barely past the stage where only the

1466
01:21:02,334 --> 01:21:05,414
parents understand her. And, and, um,

1467
01:21:05,474 --> 01:21:11,294
and they're pulling up to the TP USA site and she recognizes it.

1468
01:21:11,334 --> 01:21:14,434
She gets excited and she goes, Oh, Charlie Kirk, Charlie Kirk.

1469
01:21:16,814 --> 01:21:20,294
Has your young kid ever called you Marty Benz?

1470
01:21:20,794 --> 01:21:22,634
No, no, no.

1471
01:21:23,174 --> 01:21:25,934
I'll be by my first name when they want to really get my attention.

1472
01:21:26,174 --> 01:21:29,294
That's about it. Is that right? Oh, they're ragging on you already.

1473
01:21:29,494 --> 01:21:32,494
Okay. But that's different. That's not a three-year-old saying Charlie Kirk,

1474
01:21:32,614 --> 01:21:35,734
Charlie Kirk. I, and the kids are now missing.

1475
01:21:35,994 --> 01:21:37,234
I think they were a prop.

1476
01:21:37,494 --> 01:21:40,214
I think they didn't want to show their faces because you don't want to have to

1477
01:21:40,214 --> 01:21:42,934
have them be their kids for the rest of eternity.

1478
01:21:43,674 --> 01:21:45,834
And everyone's saying, Hey, you're traveling the world.

1479
01:21:45,914 --> 01:21:47,974
You're giving all these talks. Where's your fucking kids?

1480
01:21:48,014 --> 01:21:50,894
Who's taking care of the claim is Glenn Beck is taking care of them.

1481
01:21:50,894 --> 01:21:53,834
What kind of clown show is this? That's the claim.

1482
01:21:53,834 --> 01:21:55,774
Glenn Beck has him.

1483
01:21:55,874 --> 01:21:55,974
Right.

1484
01:21:56,114 --> 01:21:56,834
Glenn Beck has him.

1485
01:21:56,894 --> 01:21:57,374
Oh, yeah, sure.

1486
01:21:58,034 --> 01:22:02,134
So I think Erica was CIA or Mossad brainwashed.

1487
01:22:02,814 --> 01:22:04,894
She was in Romania when she was 17.

1488
01:22:05,894 --> 01:22:07,734
She was running an orphanage.

1489
01:22:07,874 --> 01:22:10,474
They got kicked out of Romania for trafficking children.

1490
01:22:13,274 --> 01:22:15,294
This story just isn't holding together.

1491
01:22:15,394 --> 01:22:16,174
And you watch her.

1492
01:22:17,014 --> 01:22:20,854
Her memorial service, she wiped the tears from her eyes eight times.

1493
01:22:21,814 --> 01:22:22,294
Eight times.

1494
01:22:22,294 --> 01:22:25,354
I watched a video of a woman counting and saying, here we go again, eight times.

1495
01:22:25,834 --> 01:22:27,074
First of all, there's no tears.

1496
01:22:27,394 --> 01:22:30,494
Her eyes look like an AI, right?

1497
01:22:30,714 --> 01:22:32,274
She's got the glazed look.

1498
01:22:32,374 --> 01:22:35,534
I mean, this is the MKUltra look.

1499
01:22:35,694 --> 01:22:39,034
This is the flat personality.

1500
01:22:39,474 --> 01:22:48,454
These guys who've been abused, you can be talking to one of them, and you don't realize you're talking to one person.

1501
01:22:48,914 --> 01:22:50,734
There's nine others in that skull of theirs,

1502
01:22:50,874 --> 01:22:53,154
and they don't even know about the one you're talking to.

1503
01:22:53,394 --> 01:22:54,694
They're all these separate entities.

1504
01:22:55,474 --> 01:22:56,994
It's a very complicated story.

1505
01:22:57,134 --> 01:22:57,854
They're schizophrenic.

1506
01:22:58,034 --> 01:22:59,254
They're induced schizophrenia.

1507
01:22:59,974 --> 01:23:03,534
And then they reassemble them and train them like you'd train a working dog.

1508
01:23:04,314 --> 01:23:05,874
So Erica Kirk, they spied her and said,

1509
01:23:05,954 --> 01:23:10,574
well, this young little damsel is looking like she's going to be a great bit of bait.

1510
01:23:11,214 --> 01:23:15,034
So then she goes and wins the Miss Arizona pageant.

1511
01:23:15,814 --> 01:23:17,534
So I ask a beauty pageant queen,

1512
01:23:17,534 --> 01:23:19,934
Is there any chance some chick who's

1513
01:23:19,992 --> 01:23:24,752
in Arizona where you can't swing a bat without hitting a hot chick,

1514
01:23:26,092 --> 01:23:30,012
walks out into a Miss Arizona pageant and just wins.

1515
01:23:30,152 --> 01:23:34,192
That's like saying, Marty, here's the violin, go win the concerto competition.

1516
01:23:35,212 --> 01:23:39,472
These women train their life to win these.

1517
01:23:40,172 --> 01:23:43,252
If you think winning a beauty pageant is just being hot in a bikini,

1518
01:23:43,252 --> 01:23:46,352
you're out of your gourd, and she wins.

1519
01:23:46,432 --> 01:23:47,392
What's that all about?

1520
01:23:47,392 --> 01:23:49,672
and so

1521
01:23:49,672 --> 01:23:53,012
so then she claims she doesn't drink

1522
01:23:53,012 --> 01:23:54,472
and hadn't dated

1523
01:23:54,472 --> 01:23:56,932
and then all of a sudden you find out she was on a dating

1524
01:23:56,932 --> 01:23:58,172
show

1525
01:23:58,172 --> 01:24:00,572
she was on Summer House too

1526
01:24:00,572 --> 01:24:01,532
which is like some Bravo

1527
01:24:01,532 --> 01:24:05,472
and she also was part of a documentary

1528
01:24:05,472 --> 01:24:07,492
that was totally deep state

1529
01:24:07,492 --> 01:24:09,112
what if the grid goes down

1530
01:24:09,112 --> 01:24:11,012
and her mother's deep state

1531
01:24:11,012 --> 01:24:13,032
her mother's completely deep state

1532
01:24:13,032 --> 01:24:14,272
to the extent we know who she is

1533
01:24:14,272 --> 01:24:17,372
of which her mother, her father, Charlie's parents

1534
01:24:17,372 --> 01:24:22,672
None of them have been in sight since Charlie got shot.

1535
01:24:23,912 --> 01:24:24,752
None of them.

1536
01:24:25,532 --> 01:24:26,252
You can't find him.

1537
01:24:27,252 --> 01:24:38,392
So the question I'm watching for, and people who are close to him, I've been watching very carefully to see if they give me a hint of this concern, is how real is Charlie?

1538
01:24:39,612 --> 01:24:43,072
Charlie gets grabbed out of high school, no college education.

1539
01:24:43,072 --> 01:24:49,192
Some gazillionaire who's a vague person themselves sponsors Charlie.

1540
01:24:51,212 --> 01:24:53,532
How many high school dropout types?

1541
01:24:53,752 --> 01:24:56,952
And also what I did read about, and they said he wasn't very popular in high school.

1542
01:24:59,232 --> 01:25:03,092
Some guy sees a dick and says, oh, let's groom this guy to run the world.

1543
01:25:05,132 --> 01:25:05,272
Yeah.

1544
01:25:06,372 --> 01:25:08,532
Yeah, to be honest, I haven't been following the theory.

1545
01:25:08,632 --> 01:25:11,032
I was pretty caught up in it, exactly when it happened.

1546
01:25:11,032 --> 01:25:12,592
But then since then, it's like, okay.

1547
01:25:13,072 --> 01:25:21,552
Well, so the problem is that it means that if I'm correct on all this crap, it means it's a big geopolitical event.

1548
01:25:22,012 --> 01:25:23,912
It's not just Charlie Kirk getting whacked.

1549
01:25:24,932 --> 01:25:26,372
Oh, here's the funniest story of them all.

1550
01:25:27,012 --> 01:25:30,192
My brother confirmed these facts for me.

1551
01:25:30,272 --> 01:25:31,172
I wasn't going to bother.

1552
01:25:31,972 --> 01:25:33,372
Do you know Snake Eyes, the movie?

1553
01:25:34,152 --> 01:25:34,432
No.

1554
01:25:35,272 --> 01:25:36,252
You're going to love this.

1555
01:25:36,392 --> 01:25:38,372
You won't know what to do with this information.

1556
01:25:38,752 --> 01:25:40,532
This information will blow your circuits.

1557
01:25:41,052 --> 01:25:41,752
It's true.

1558
01:25:41,752 --> 01:25:44,472
1996 or 98, can't remember

1559
01:25:44,472 --> 01:25:46,752
Nicolas Cage makes a movie Snake Eyes

1560
01:25:46,752 --> 01:25:48,032
Yeah, I saw the theory

1561
01:25:48,032 --> 01:25:49,952
Let me finish the story

1562
01:25:49,952 --> 01:25:53,052
So Snake Eyes, the lead character

1563
01:25:53,052 --> 01:25:55,092
is shot in the neck

1564
01:25:55,092 --> 01:25:57,292
one of the lead characters is shot in the neck

1565
01:25:57,292 --> 01:25:59,052
by a guy named

1566
01:25:59,052 --> 01:26:01,232
Tyler the Executioner

1567
01:26:01,232 --> 01:26:03,712
Tyler Robinson

1568
01:26:03,712 --> 01:26:05,832
It's on

1569
01:26:05,832 --> 01:26:08,072
September 10th, which I think

1570
01:26:08,072 --> 01:26:09,832
whatever date Charlie was shot

1571
01:26:09,832 --> 01:26:10,832
that was the date

1572
01:26:11,752 --> 01:26:16,472
And the guy who got shot was Charlie Kirkland.

1573
01:26:18,212 --> 01:26:20,152
Some predictive programming right there.

1574
01:26:20,572 --> 01:26:22,272
My head explodes.

1575
01:26:22,452 --> 01:26:22,972
I don't know.

1576
01:26:23,232 --> 01:26:27,632
No, TPUSA was registered as an organization in 2002.

1577
01:26:28,712 --> 01:26:29,892
I didn't know that.

1578
01:26:30,292 --> 01:26:31,532
Yeah, pretty weird, isn't it?

1579
01:26:32,112 --> 01:26:38,252
You want to watch an interesting Twitter feed, TPV Sean, who I have no idea what to make of.

1580
01:26:38,252 --> 01:26:42,892
TPV Sean is this sort of British guy.

1581
01:26:42,972 --> 01:26:44,472
He's got kind of a Britoid accent.

1582
01:26:45,612 --> 01:26:51,872
And what's surreal here, so I have networks on Twitter that are totally independent of each other.

1583
01:26:51,952 --> 01:26:54,552
So you got the FinTwit and the HODLers and the various guys.

1584
01:26:54,552 --> 01:27:01,212
I also am highly networked with the pedo hunters, the guys who actually go after the pedophiles.

1585
01:27:01,692 --> 01:27:06,272
TPV Sean has 307,000 followers.

1586
01:27:06,272 --> 01:27:15,832
he follows a hundred people i'm one of them and i'm going what the heck is that about but

1587
01:27:15,832 --> 01:27:20,832
but there's all these guys like liz crockin and mike smith and stuff who've been tracking pedos

1588
01:27:20,832 --> 01:27:27,872
like crazy full-time job and and i'm all connected up with them on twitter too and so i've got the

1589
01:27:27,872 --> 01:27:34,212
the pedo hunting network on twitter and it's interesting because i've besides some hints and

1590
01:27:34,212 --> 01:27:40,132
some podcast shit. I've never really gone there. I've been studying it like crazy. I mean,

1591
01:27:40,612 --> 01:27:46,172
one of the things I realized when I finished writing my 2025 year in review is one thing

1592
01:27:46,172 --> 01:27:52,152
that made it so hard as I went down rabbit holes that I don't think were wrong, but were so dark

1593
01:27:52,152 --> 01:27:59,332
that I just couldn't, I couldn't breathe. I couldn't breathe. Yeah. There was, there was a

1594
01:27:59,332 --> 01:28:05,912
famous octopus murder where some guy was tracking his brother who got assassinated.

1595
01:28:06,692 --> 01:28:12,872
And so I tried to retrace his steps to find out what he was studying. And it turns out it led to

1596
01:28:12,872 --> 01:28:18,512
all sorts of assassinations and all sorts of obviously intelligence-based stuff. And then he

1597
01:28:18,512 --> 01:28:22,852
ran into two other people who were tracking the same story. He ran them independently. And one

1598
01:28:22,852 --> 01:28:25,592
woman had stopped. He said, why?

1599
01:28:25,592 --> 01:28:29,392
He said, why? She said,

1600
01:28:29,512 --> 01:28:32,712
I just had to stop. I just had to stop.

1601
01:28:34,032 --> 01:28:37,552
You could do this forever. I get emails from a guy who's still tracking JFK

1602
01:28:37,552 --> 01:28:41,172
murders twice a week. JFK murder.

1603
01:28:41,512 --> 01:28:44,132
He sends shit and I go, let it go.

1604
01:28:44,592 --> 01:28:47,852
Let it go, buddy. Can we all

1605
01:28:47,852 --> 01:28:51,072
agree JFK was killed by what we will collectively call the CIA?

1606
01:28:51,072 --> 01:28:54,272
we can probably agree with 98% confidence

1607
01:28:54,272 --> 01:28:55,692
that LBJ was in on it

1608
01:28:55,692 --> 01:28:58,532
and the details don't matter anymore

1609
01:28:58,532 --> 01:28:59,032
at that point

1610
01:28:59,032 --> 01:29:04,332
why do you think he was killed

1611
01:29:04,332 --> 01:29:06,212
oh there are so many reasons

1612
01:29:06,212 --> 01:29:07,432
the nuclear

1613
01:29:07,432 --> 01:29:10,852
there's a laundry list

1614
01:29:10,852 --> 01:29:13,172
of why you'd want to kill JFK

1615
01:29:13,172 --> 01:29:15,332
including him promising

1616
01:29:15,332 --> 01:29:16,932
to dissolve the CIA

1617
01:29:16,932 --> 01:29:18,812
and

1618
01:29:18,812 --> 01:29:23,952
I think a good case has been made

1619
01:29:23,952 --> 01:29:25,632
that Nixon was taken out

1620
01:29:25,632 --> 01:29:28,332
he didn't fuck up Watergate

1621
01:29:28,332 --> 01:29:29,852
and have a scandal

1622
01:29:29,852 --> 01:29:32,492
the entire thing was to take him out of office

1623
01:29:32,492 --> 01:29:34,012
and

1624
01:29:34,012 --> 01:29:36,512
actually the guy

1625
01:29:36,512 --> 01:29:38,412
who wrote about that oddly enough

1626
01:29:38,412 --> 01:29:40,292
is Nick Bryan who wrote the Franklin

1627
01:29:40,292 --> 01:29:41,872
scandal he wrote about that too

1628
01:29:41,872 --> 01:29:44,652
and he did some ghost writing

1629
01:29:44,652 --> 01:29:46,552
too he wrote some other books

1630
01:29:46,552 --> 01:29:48,972
that he wrote that other people's names went on.

1631
01:29:50,052 --> 01:29:51,152
Starving author.

1632
01:29:52,612 --> 01:29:55,652
But everyone involved was Deep State.

1633
01:29:56,232 --> 01:29:57,092
Everyone involved.

1634
01:29:57,352 --> 01:29:58,692
The burglars were Deep State.

1635
01:29:59,592 --> 01:30:01,732
Bob Woodward, Deep State.

1636
01:30:01,872 --> 01:30:03,192
Bob Woodward wasn't a journalist.

1637
01:30:03,872 --> 01:30:06,052
He was Naval Intelligence.

1638
01:30:07,752 --> 01:30:10,792
So I'm on a podcast with a guy named Tony Schaffer.

1639
01:30:11,252 --> 01:30:13,052
You can find Tony all over the internet.

1640
01:30:13,192 --> 01:30:13,752
Tony's famous.

1641
01:30:13,852 --> 01:30:15,292
You can see him with Rumsfeld and these guys.

1642
01:30:15,292 --> 01:30:29,452
While he was on the Zoom call, I'm fact checking him. He's absolutely nailing it. This guy is like Robert Maxwell, but he got booted because he was too mouthy. He was too public.

1643
01:30:29,452 --> 01:30:31,672
and I was on the Zoom call

1644
01:30:31,672 --> 01:30:33,672
and I asked myself, I'm interested

1645
01:30:33,672 --> 01:30:35,632
in child traffic and the influence on

1646
01:30:35,632 --> 01:30:37,712
geopolitics because one can

1647
01:30:37,712 --> 01:30:39,452
make the argument that all the stupid things

1648
01:30:39,452 --> 01:30:41,632
being done are because they're

1649
01:30:41,632 --> 01:30:43,752
being forced to do it because they're compromised

1650
01:30:43,752 --> 01:30:45,732
right? That was the

1651
01:30:45,732 --> 01:30:47,492
theme that I've been following for a couple years now

1652
01:30:47,492 --> 01:30:49,812
and he

1653
01:30:49,812 --> 01:30:51,652
starts talking about Epstein and I go, yeah, we kind of

1654
01:30:51,652 --> 01:30:53,392
have a beat on who Epstein was

1655
01:30:53,392 --> 01:30:55,712
I'm more interested

1656
01:30:55,712 --> 01:30:57,472
in the dark, weird shit

1657
01:30:57,472 --> 01:30:59,452
I said, let me ask you a simple question, Tony.

1658
01:30:59,592 --> 01:31:03,832
I said, does the Clinton Foundation traffic children?

1659
01:31:04,512 --> 01:31:05,472
He said, oh, absolutely.

1660
01:31:07,632 --> 01:31:09,492
The evidence is above the fold true.

1661
01:31:10,352 --> 01:31:12,232
I asked him that question to test him.

1662
01:31:13,752 --> 01:31:15,572
Laura Silsby got caught.

1663
01:31:15,652 --> 01:31:18,112
She got sent to a Haitian prison for trafficking children.

1664
01:31:18,232 --> 01:31:19,312
The Clintons had to bail her out.

1665
01:31:19,752 --> 01:31:25,592
Well, and this is topical this week with Hillary refusing to testify in Congress on the upstate.

1666
01:31:25,592 --> 01:31:29,672
Well, they should do the goddamn Steve Bannon drill and send him to prison.

1667
01:31:30,292 --> 01:31:32,552
I think they are trying to hold her in contempt right now.

1668
01:31:33,192 --> 01:31:36,532
Right, but they won't send her to prison because that was probably a bad idea too.

1669
01:31:37,592 --> 01:31:38,792
Sending Bannon to prison.

1670
01:31:39,112 --> 01:31:39,552
Navarro.

1671
01:31:40,652 --> 01:31:43,372
I used to chat with Navarro back when he was at Irvine.

1672
01:31:44,372 --> 01:31:45,292
He's just an economist.

1673
01:31:45,592 --> 01:31:46,392
I'd swap emails.

1674
01:31:47,292 --> 01:31:51,912
So what – all this is like zooming out, 2026 in America.

1675
01:31:52,032 --> 01:31:55,412
Obviously, we were talking about a little bit, the ice raids in Minneapolis.

1676
01:31:55,592 --> 01:31:58,332
seems like we just bombed Venezuela.

1677
01:31:58,992 --> 01:32:00,092
Who knows what's going to happen with Iran.

1678
01:32:00,192 --> 01:32:01,452
Did we really bomb Venezuela?

1679
01:32:01,712 --> 01:32:04,572
I was in D.C. on Wednesday night,

1680
01:32:04,672 --> 01:32:07,272
funnily enough, talking to some people.

1681
01:32:08,112 --> 01:32:13,292
The tech we used to extract him or attack him.

1682
01:32:13,292 --> 01:32:16,292
I had this funny feeling that he was willing to be extracted.

1683
01:32:16,292 --> 01:32:18,592
You look at the pictures, it seems very clear

1684
01:32:18,592 --> 01:32:21,092
there was some predetermined agreement.

1685
01:32:21,592 --> 01:32:21,752
Right.

1686
01:32:22,192 --> 01:32:24,172
Well, because for one thing, if you're Maduro,

1687
01:32:24,172 --> 01:32:26,032
It's like, okay, let me see if I got this right.

1688
01:32:26,132 --> 01:32:32,372
I cut a deal with the Yanks, and they somehow set up something that's got a Ghislaine Maxwell feel to it.

1689
01:32:33,112 --> 01:32:38,552
Or I stay where I am where there's no more dangerous career path than being an ex-dictator.

1690
01:32:39,092 --> 01:32:40,252
No more dangerous.

1691
01:32:40,652 --> 01:32:44,652
And he said, if I stay in Venezuela, I'll get a knife up the ass Gaddafi style.

1692
01:32:46,012 --> 01:32:47,552
Which you do not want to go.

1693
01:32:47,812 --> 01:32:50,032
You do not want to die from a knife up the ass.

1694
01:32:50,032 --> 01:32:53,472
I'm pretty sure that is not the preferred method to go to the light.

1695
01:32:53,472 --> 01:32:55,872
and so

1696
01:32:55,872 --> 01:32:57,892
so

1697
01:32:57,892 --> 01:32:58,352
they

1698
01:32:58,352 --> 01:33:01,692
remember we saved the guy

1699
01:33:01,692 --> 01:33:02,712
in the Iraqi

1700
01:33:02,712 --> 01:33:05,072
hospital

1701
01:33:05,072 --> 01:33:07,152
and it's this

1702
01:33:07,152 --> 01:33:08,772
we send SEAL team whatever

1703
01:33:08,772 --> 01:33:11,032
and they run up and they grab the guy

1704
01:33:11,032 --> 01:33:13,312
and we get him out and we tell this great story and then we found out

1705
01:33:13,312 --> 01:33:15,112
after the fact that the doctors at the hospital

1706
01:33:15,112 --> 01:33:17,132
said hey we got your guy come and get him

1707
01:33:17,132 --> 01:33:18,472
he's here just come and get him

1708
01:33:18,472 --> 01:33:20,332
and so we just made this

1709
01:33:20,332 --> 01:33:22,152
we lie our asses off

1710
01:33:22,152 --> 01:33:22,492
we

1711
01:33:22,492 --> 01:33:23,932
We, the authorities.

1712
01:33:24,132 --> 01:33:26,492
That's why I don't believe anything that Israel tells us.

1713
01:33:26,632 --> 01:33:28,692
I don't believe anything our government tells us.

1714
01:33:28,792 --> 01:33:34,432
There's no government that has ever, ever failed to optimize the story.

1715
01:33:36,252 --> 01:33:36,692
Right?

1716
01:33:36,932 --> 01:33:43,172
So if you think you understood what happened on October 7th, you think you understood what happened in Pearl Harbor, you think you understand what happened in the Gulf War.

1717
01:33:43,332 --> 01:33:45,352
The Gulf War wasn't even a clean war for us.

1718
01:33:46,232 --> 01:33:48,472
People think, well, at least, you know, Saddam attacked Kuwait.

1719
01:33:48,832 --> 01:33:50,432
We gave them the nod.

1720
01:33:52,492 --> 01:33:54,972
Now, Scott Horton is a little more generous.

1721
01:33:55,292 --> 01:33:57,092
He says, no, we didn't give him the nod.

1722
01:33:57,192 --> 01:33:57,892
We fucked up.

1723
01:33:57,952 --> 01:34:01,812
Our State Department says some shit that was ambiguous, and he took it too far.

1724
01:34:01,912 --> 01:34:04,912
And I'm going, okay, it's not like Scott's bashful.

1725
01:34:06,192 --> 01:34:09,192
Scott really does call balls and strikes.

1726
01:34:10,432 --> 01:34:12,492
But I think we gave him the nod.

1727
01:34:13,032 --> 01:34:14,112
It's just a hunch.

1728
01:34:14,112 --> 01:34:16,372
And that sounds like plausible deniability in a way.

1729
01:34:16,812 --> 01:34:17,112
Right.

1730
01:34:17,412 --> 01:34:20,832
And the Somali thing, the Somalis aren't ripping us off up in Minnesota.

1731
01:34:21,092 --> 01:34:22,032
They're just friend men.

1732
01:34:22,492 --> 01:34:24,312
who's getting all that money?

1733
01:34:25,172 --> 01:34:26,352
Right, and then how are they

1734
01:34:26,352 --> 01:34:29,052
so easily able to

1735
01:34:29,052 --> 01:34:31,172
funnel the cash literally through airports,

1736
01:34:31,332 --> 01:34:33,112
TSA security, get it to Dubai?

1737
01:34:33,612 --> 01:34:34,612
Right, right.

1738
01:34:35,072 --> 01:34:36,272
That's like, I don't know.

1739
01:34:36,272 --> 01:34:38,052
Probably military transports.

1740
01:34:38,052 --> 01:34:38,272
Yeah.

1741
01:34:38,992 --> 01:34:40,712
I mean, who knows, right?

1742
01:34:42,132 --> 01:34:43,072
That's like how...

1743
01:34:43,072 --> 01:34:44,252
You know how you smuggle?

1744
01:34:44,392 --> 01:34:46,872
It turns out the art world has

1745
01:34:46,872 --> 01:34:48,632
custom steels where

1746
01:34:48,632 --> 01:34:50,512
they don't have to check the packages

1747
01:34:50,512 --> 01:34:51,852
because it's rare art.

1748
01:34:52,492 --> 01:35:00,752
You don't want to be sending Da Vinci to the Met for some show and have guys –

1749
01:35:00,752 --> 01:35:01,932
You can't disturb the piece.

1750
01:35:02,052 --> 01:35:02,752
You can't open the box.

1751
01:35:02,772 --> 01:35:03,232
That's right.

1752
01:35:03,352 --> 01:35:04,752
And so you shove the shit in there.

1753
01:35:05,552 --> 01:35:10,552
And so a lot of trafficking and stuff is hidden in the art world.

1754
01:35:11,472 --> 01:35:12,892
It's a great laundering.

1755
01:35:12,892 --> 01:35:16,792
You know, the guy sold balloon art for $260 million, $360 million, right?

1756
01:35:18,032 --> 01:35:18,292
Yeah.

1757
01:35:18,512 --> 01:35:19,412
What is his name?

1758
01:35:19,812 --> 01:35:20,912
Well, that's money laundering.

1759
01:35:21,112 --> 01:35:21,432
Coons.

1760
01:35:21,572 --> 01:35:22,212
His name is Coons.

1761
01:35:22,212 --> 01:35:22,472
Coons, yeah.

1762
01:35:22,492 --> 01:35:27,152
And by the way, I've seen pictures of Coons with some very dubious characters, so I do believe.

1763
01:35:28,232 --> 01:35:31,392
I do believe that Coons was laundering money.

1764
01:35:31,392 --> 01:35:36,232
Do you think we're at a social tipping point, though, with this generational divide?

1765
01:35:37,332 --> 01:35:39,192
What the intentions of Nick Shirley are?

1766
01:35:39,412 --> 01:35:40,512
I think one thing's clear.

1767
01:35:40,812 --> 01:35:42,792
He's incited these copycats.

1768
01:35:43,812 --> 01:35:44,732
Which is good news.

1769
01:35:44,952 --> 01:35:45,372
Exactly.

1770
01:35:45,672 --> 01:35:47,692
The Zoomer clout maxing out there.

1771
01:35:47,952 --> 01:35:48,932
There was one this morning.

1772
01:35:48,932 --> 01:35:54,872
Some guy went to some acidic neighborhood in New York that is doing a similar welfare scam.

1773
01:35:54,992 --> 01:35:57,972
We've seen it happen in L.A., Philadelphia.

1774
01:35:58,152 --> 01:36:01,332
There's a kid running around Philadelphia doing the same thing.

1775
01:36:01,572 --> 01:36:11,452
But when you look at the economy, the job market, the inability for the younger generations to make a better life for themselves, form families, buy houses, all that stuff.

1776
01:36:11,592 --> 01:36:16,272
And then there's all this fraud being laid bare.

1777
01:36:16,272 --> 01:36:18,592
like are we reaching a social tipping point

1778
01:36:18,592 --> 01:36:20,972
well are we going to see it stop

1779
01:36:20,972 --> 01:36:25,712
are we just going to know how much

1780
01:36:25,712 --> 01:36:28,132
are we just going to be getting a doggy style

1781
01:36:28,132 --> 01:36:32,392
are we going to be getting it missionary style instead of doggy style

1782
01:36:32,392 --> 01:36:32,912
I think

1783
01:36:32,912 --> 01:36:35,552
I mean I think

1784
01:36:35,552 --> 01:36:36,892
if we're just

1785
01:36:36,892 --> 01:36:40,812
being honest with ourselves it's probably that

1786
01:36:40,812 --> 01:36:44,712
but I would like to hope that there is enough momentum

1787
01:36:44,712 --> 01:36:47,252
When was the last time someone of importance went to prison?

1788
01:36:50,572 --> 01:36:51,612
That's a great question.

1789
01:36:52,912 --> 01:36:53,712
Denny Hastert.

1790
01:36:55,592 --> 01:36:55,992
Yeah.

1791
01:36:56,532 --> 01:36:57,392
Diddling kids.

1792
01:36:57,492 --> 01:36:58,832
What was that, 30 years ago?

1793
01:36:59,132 --> 01:37:00,932
Yeah, but he was already old at that point, wasn't he?

1794
01:37:01,352 --> 01:37:01,692
Right.

1795
01:37:02,012 --> 01:37:03,292
He must have pissed someone off.

1796
01:37:03,772 --> 01:37:03,992
Yeah.

1797
01:37:04,532 --> 01:37:06,112
What was he, Speaker of the House at the time?

1798
01:37:06,252 --> 01:37:06,532
Yeah.

1799
01:37:06,832 --> 01:37:08,532
Yeah, that's a high-level position.

1800
01:37:08,532 --> 01:37:15,372
He got Blagojevic, who was what, mayor of, was governor of, or mayor of Chicago or governor of Illinois or something.

1801
01:37:15,612 --> 01:37:16,692
But he was a throwaway.

1802
01:37:17,512 --> 01:37:18,752
He did a Tucker interview.

1803
01:37:18,912 --> 01:37:19,552
It was really good.

1804
01:37:19,872 --> 01:37:23,352
Yeah, and he basically explained, like, I was thrown under the bus because I wouldn't go with Obama, right?

1805
01:37:23,692 --> 01:37:25,832
Right, right, right, right.

1806
01:37:26,392 --> 01:37:31,892
So I think, and then the story I love to tell.

1807
01:37:32,512 --> 01:37:34,412
I was on a Zoom call with a couple of generals.

1808
01:37:34,412 --> 01:37:38,432
and one of them mentioned a guy named Janda.

1809
01:37:38,592 --> 01:37:40,612
These are retired, these are like 80-year-old generals.

1810
01:37:41,152 --> 01:37:43,132
And one of them mentioned a guy named Janda,

1811
01:37:43,212 --> 01:37:46,192
and I go, Janda, the Undersecretary of Health and whatever?

1812
01:37:46,732 --> 01:37:48,012
He said, yeah.

1813
01:37:48,132 --> 01:37:49,232
And I said, is he a good guy?

1814
01:37:49,272 --> 01:37:50,612
And he go, oh, yeah, he's a really good guy.

1815
01:37:51,232 --> 01:37:54,052
And Janda, it turns out, was doing an interview.

1816
01:37:54,372 --> 01:37:55,272
I've got the link.

1817
01:37:55,512 --> 01:37:56,572
I didn't write about it.

1818
01:37:57,832 --> 01:38:00,952
And someone said to him, he was inside the Beltway

1819
01:38:00,952 --> 01:38:04,272
after having been appointed in one of these bureaucratic positions,

1820
01:38:04,412 --> 01:38:06,192
he's an orthopedic surgeon or something

1821
01:38:06,192 --> 01:38:08,512
and his buddy says don't

1822
01:38:08,512 --> 01:38:10,332
whatever you do don't go to a private party

1823
01:38:10,332 --> 01:38:12,472
he says even if it's at the

1824
01:38:12,472 --> 01:38:14,432
vice president's house which I think was Cheney

1825
01:38:14,432 --> 01:38:14,952
at the time

1826
01:38:14,952 --> 01:38:18,152
and Jenna says why and he says because

1827
01:38:18,152 --> 01:38:20,572
you will wake up in a fog

1828
01:38:20,572 --> 01:38:22,392
not knowing what happened and you'll have a

1829
01:38:22,392 --> 01:38:24,352
Polaroid clipped to your shirt with you and a five

1830
01:38:24,352 --> 01:38:24,632
year old

1831
01:38:24,632 --> 01:38:28,292
they don't have to corrupt you they

1832
01:38:28,292 --> 01:38:29,752
just have to slip you a mickey

1833
01:38:29,752 --> 01:38:32,572
by the way why doesn't

1834
01:38:32,572 --> 01:38:38,292
someone collect the glasses from the fucking macrons at a restaurant and do a DNA test.

1835
01:38:39,732 --> 01:38:40,792
What would that do?

1836
01:38:41,872 --> 01:38:47,132
Well, the two questions are, the lower level question is Macron's wife a dude.

1837
01:38:47,352 --> 01:38:50,632
So you find out if Macron, yeah.

1838
01:38:50,732 --> 01:38:57,772
If you find out that his wife has a Y chromosome, then you answer that question.

1839
01:38:58,092 --> 01:38:59,892
Macron has sued Candace Owens.

1840
01:38:59,892 --> 01:39:02,392
is what do you bet that nothing comes of that suit

1841
01:39:02,392 --> 01:39:04,752
because they don't actually want to go to discovery?

1842
01:39:05,392 --> 01:39:07,732
Because a DNA test would go to discovery, right?

1843
01:39:07,752 --> 01:39:09,772
If I'm a judge, I'm not letting a lawsuit go by

1844
01:39:09,772 --> 01:39:11,692
without saying, give me a DNA test, court sanction.

1845
01:39:11,872 --> 01:39:12,392
It's over.

1846
01:39:13,312 --> 01:39:16,572
It's defamation or not, depending on your DNA test.

1847
01:39:18,012 --> 01:39:19,292
The second question,

1848
01:39:19,492 --> 01:39:21,292
and Candace has kind of backed off of this one.

1849
01:39:21,712 --> 01:39:23,332
I don't know if Candace is right,

1850
01:39:23,432 --> 01:39:25,072
but I think she tries to get it right.

1851
01:39:25,072 --> 01:39:27,712
I don't think she's an intentional liar.

1852
01:39:27,712 --> 01:39:31,692
at one point she was saying that

1853
01:39:31,692 --> 01:39:35,532
Macron's wife is not only a dude but is also his father

1854
01:39:35,532 --> 01:39:39,672
well if you're gonna do

1855
01:39:39,672 --> 01:39:43,632
the dude thing it's just a minor step if it's some satanic cult family

1856
01:39:43,632 --> 01:39:47,972
you've seen pictures of her with him when he was like 14 years old

1857
01:39:47,972 --> 01:39:51,912
yeah that's pretty fucked up they started dating

1858
01:39:51,912 --> 01:39:55,092
at 15 because she was his teacher right

1859
01:39:55,092 --> 01:39:57,412
She was 39, he was 15.

1860
01:39:57,832 --> 01:40:00,012
So, you know, it's a fucked up world.

1861
01:40:00,432 --> 01:40:00,552
Yeah.

1862
01:40:00,972 --> 01:40:02,012
Is that my phone?

1863
01:40:02,612 --> 01:40:03,032
Never mind.

1864
01:40:03,532 --> 01:40:06,312
Yeah, that's my son.

1865
01:40:09,912 --> 01:40:13,352
So that DNA test might show relationship.

1866
01:40:16,652 --> 01:40:17,172
Yeah.

1867
01:40:17,892 --> 01:40:18,912
So I'm waiting for that.

1868
01:40:19,192 --> 01:40:20,452
The other thing, what do you bet?

1869
01:40:20,452 --> 01:40:23,932
What do you bet Tyler Robinson's case does not go to court?

1870
01:40:25,092 --> 01:40:28,492
By any mechanism you want

1871
01:40:28,492 --> 01:40:29,732
I mean it's already been weird

1872
01:40:29,732 --> 01:40:31,192
To this point right

1873
01:40:31,192 --> 01:40:33,852
There's no way that he shot Charlie Kirk

1874
01:40:33,852 --> 01:40:36,192
I think he might have been involved

1875
01:40:36,192 --> 01:40:38,212
I could imagine a scenario

1876
01:40:38,212 --> 01:40:40,312
Where Tyler Robinson was sent to the roof

1877
01:40:40,312 --> 01:40:41,732
To be a spotter or something

1878
01:40:41,732 --> 01:40:44,672
Not realizing that they were going to hang it on him

1879
01:40:44,672 --> 01:40:46,912
And all of a sudden

1880
01:40:46,912 --> 01:40:48,852
So I think his father turned him in

1881
01:40:48,852 --> 01:40:49,932
Not because his father

1882
01:40:49,932 --> 01:40:52,172
Well I think I saw you

1883
01:40:52,172 --> 01:40:54,972
I think his father had to get him off the street

1884
01:40:54,972 --> 01:40:55,692
or he'd die.

1885
01:40:56,932 --> 01:40:58,132
There'd be a shootout.

1886
01:40:59,332 --> 01:41:00,932
I think I saw you tweeting about it. What happened to

1887
01:41:00,932 --> 01:41:01,432
John Cullen?

1888
01:41:02,772 --> 01:41:04,132
A fascinating question.

1889
01:41:04,492 --> 01:41:06,812
His analysis of that

1890
01:41:06,812 --> 01:41:08,392
immediate aftermath was very interesting.

1891
01:41:08,652 --> 01:41:09,812
I've had him on the show before.

1892
01:41:10,292 --> 01:41:12,812
John would

1893
01:41:12,812 --> 01:41:14,592
do these podcasts incognito.

1894
01:41:14,932 --> 01:41:16,192
I said to him one day in a podcast,

1895
01:41:16,432 --> 01:41:18,832
John, you're

1896
01:41:18,832 --> 01:41:20,692
incognito, but I'm not sure those

1897
01:41:20,692 --> 01:41:22,712
sunglasses and hat are really hiding

1898
01:41:22,712 --> 01:41:24,692
your identity. If you're

1899
01:41:24,692 --> 01:41:29,612
really work for Oracle, it's not going to be hard to narrow down who the hell you are.

1900
01:41:29,712 --> 01:41:31,092
He said, well, yeah, that's true.

1901
01:41:31,352 --> 01:41:35,092
So John did a bunch of things, including did a great job on the Las Vegas shootings.

1902
01:41:35,232 --> 01:41:37,792
I didn't realize that a lot of shit I was getting about the shooting.

1903
01:41:37,912 --> 01:41:39,512
I was getting it was John's stuff.

1904
01:41:39,592 --> 01:41:42,972
I didn't realize that years ago when I wrote about it, I didn't realize a bunch was coming

1905
01:41:42,972 --> 01:41:43,532
from John.

1906
01:41:45,892 --> 01:41:49,332
Then he got into the Butler shooting and he did trajectory analysis.

1907
01:41:49,332 --> 01:41:52,652
He's a real geeky guy or connected.

1908
01:41:53,772 --> 01:41:54,652
One of the two.

1909
01:41:54,692 --> 01:41:57,472
And then he started analyzing some other shit.

1910
01:41:57,532 --> 01:42:04,892
Oh, he started analyzing the Kirk thing and started picking up on the Egyptian plane that pulled into the airport and pulled out and stuff like that.

1911
01:42:05,172 --> 01:42:10,292
And now they mention the craziness of Candace Owens mentioning Egyptian planes.

1912
01:42:10,492 --> 01:42:11,992
And I'm going, that was John Cullen.

1913
01:42:12,612 --> 01:42:17,432
So John, all of a sudden, October 13th, tweeted his last tweet without saying goodbye or anything.

1914
01:42:18,132 --> 01:42:19,192
I've got John's email.

1915
01:42:19,312 --> 01:42:20,092
He doesn't answer.

1916
01:42:20,992 --> 01:42:22,572
Other people have his phone number.

1917
01:42:22,612 --> 01:42:23,432
He doesn't pick up.

1918
01:42:23,432 --> 01:42:27,312
and so John is either A, dead, or B, reassigned.

1919
01:42:28,872 --> 01:42:32,672
There is a guy out there on Twitter who says he knows he's still alive

1920
01:42:32,672 --> 01:42:36,632
but I don't know if the guy on Twitter knows for sure.

1921
01:42:38,372 --> 01:42:40,972
Well, if it's the latter, what was he being assigned to in the first place?

1922
01:42:42,912 --> 01:42:45,592
Well, you know, you've got narratives, you've got to pump.

1923
01:42:46,792 --> 01:42:46,972
Right?

1924
01:42:47,932 --> 01:42:50,392
When I talked to Tucker

1925
01:42:50,392 --> 01:42:53,732
he talked about

1926
01:42:53,732 --> 01:42:57,712
he talked about shit like this

1927
01:42:57,712 --> 01:43:00,152
about, I just lost my train of thought

1928
01:43:00,152 --> 01:43:04,952
about these narratives

1929
01:43:04,952 --> 01:43:06,712
we got into it quite a bit

1930
01:43:06,712 --> 01:43:09,032
might have been off camera, I can't remember

1931
01:43:09,032 --> 01:43:12,992
off camera we went dark, holy fuck did we go dark

1932
01:43:12,992 --> 01:43:18,072
I don't know, he's still alive

1933
01:43:18,072 --> 01:43:23,772
someone said i just don't think you can whack that many people in that short a time

1934
01:43:23,772 --> 01:43:30,592
because then people then people will start getting suspicious right like we're not suspicious

1935
01:43:30,592 --> 01:43:35,912
um i've become a total conspiracy theorist i've never as you know i've never been bashful about

1936
01:43:35,912 --> 01:43:41,872
conspiracy theories because a tweet that not only went viral but i've now seen in two books

1937
01:43:41,872 --> 01:43:44,772
I see the street in two books

1938
01:43:44,772 --> 01:43:46,332
Where I said

1939
01:43:46,332 --> 01:43:50,872
I'm a conspiracy theorist

1940
01:43:50,872 --> 01:43:51,872
I believe men and women

1941
01:43:51,872 --> 01:43:54,092
Of wealth and power conspire

1942
01:43:54,092 --> 01:43:56,192
If you don't you're what's called an idiot

1943
01:43:56,192 --> 01:43:58,792
And if you do but you won't say anything

1944
01:43:58,792 --> 01:43:59,732
You're what's called a coward

1945
01:43:59,732 --> 01:44:03,672
So if you really don't think

1946
01:44:03,672 --> 01:44:15,170
Men and women of wealth and power Aren conspiring You need a CAT scan I mean the entire human population is a big conspiracy right Yeah

1947
01:44:16,050 --> 01:44:19,730
And so, you know, Klaus Schwab,

1948
01:44:19,810 --> 01:44:20,790
oh, he's not conspiring.

1949
01:44:20,930 --> 01:44:21,890
Where'd he go, by the way?

1950
01:44:22,090 --> 01:44:23,110
Just gone.

1951
01:44:23,350 --> 01:44:23,850
It's gone.

1952
01:44:24,050 --> 01:44:25,970
He got pushed in the locker,

1953
01:44:26,110 --> 01:44:27,590
said, all right, you've...

1954
01:44:27,590 --> 01:44:27,990
That's right.

1955
01:44:28,130 --> 01:44:28,690
Time to go.

1956
01:44:29,090 --> 01:44:29,910
Who's replaced him?

1957
01:44:30,030 --> 01:44:31,050
Too many people want to ask you.

1958
01:44:31,830 --> 01:44:32,770
Who's replaced him?

1959
01:44:32,770 --> 01:44:33,770
Mark Hardy.

1960
01:44:34,990 --> 01:44:39,050
Mark Carney, there's a guy who's not only front and center and deep state.

1961
01:44:39,290 --> 01:44:44,390
Oftentimes, I think the guys who are real deep state, you don't see as easily.

1962
01:44:44,690 --> 01:44:49,270
I think Mark Carney, I think they moved him from a private world economic forum to a head of state.

1963
01:44:49,970 --> 01:44:52,030
Well, don't forget, he went through Central Bank first.

1964
01:44:52,030 --> 01:44:53,250
Yeah, Bank of England.

1965
01:44:53,850 --> 01:44:59,430
Yeah, and then he went to – and I've got pictures of Mark seeing there with Ghislaine Maxwell.

1966
01:44:59,430 --> 01:45:04,630
and, you know, it's just, it's one big club

1967
01:45:04,630 --> 01:45:06,930
and we ain't in it, as George Carlin would say.

1968
01:45:07,610 --> 01:45:08,970
Do we want to be in it, though?

1969
01:45:09,170 --> 01:45:11,010
No, no, no.

1970
01:45:11,270 --> 01:45:12,570
That was part of my decision.

1971
01:45:12,730 --> 01:45:14,990
I did not want to lock arms with Candace Owens

1972
01:45:14,990 --> 01:45:16,650
and Dave Smith and fight the Zionists.

1973
01:45:17,050 --> 01:45:17,470
Yeah.

1974
01:45:18,070 --> 01:45:19,790
And that's the direction I was heading.

1975
01:45:20,010 --> 01:45:21,190
My brother nailed it.

1976
01:45:21,690 --> 01:45:25,450
He's been worried about me not being wacky,

1977
01:45:25,510 --> 01:45:27,630
but rather getting into places I don't want to be in.

1978
01:45:27,630 --> 01:45:30,190
He said, would you ever want to trade positions with Nick Fuentes?

1979
01:45:30,350 --> 01:45:31,170
I said, no chance.

1980
01:45:31,210 --> 01:45:32,530
He said, then be careful.

1981
01:45:33,510 --> 01:45:33,650
Yeah.

1982
01:45:34,470 --> 01:45:40,910
And I somehow seem to be willing to talk about it, but not write about it.

1983
01:45:42,190 --> 01:45:45,290
And I don't, it's weird because writing, you have more control.

1984
01:45:45,770 --> 01:45:46,190
This is.

1985
01:45:46,570 --> 01:45:48,410
But it's also more formal.

1986
01:45:48,890 --> 01:45:54,570
Somehow you get this feeling that you and I chatting isn't as consequential as laying out a document.

1987
01:45:55,130 --> 01:45:55,250
Yeah.

1988
01:45:55,250 --> 01:45:58,010
which is not true in the digital world.

1989
01:45:58,830 --> 01:46:00,250
Yeah, and it's all...

1990
01:46:01,210 --> 01:46:02,970
I think about this a lot too.

1991
01:46:07,770 --> 01:46:09,390
Sometimes you just want to take the blue pill,

1992
01:46:09,550 --> 01:46:11,270
eat the steak, eat the steak again.

1993
01:46:11,390 --> 01:46:12,310
I know it's not right now.

1994
01:46:12,670 --> 01:46:15,590
It's like, how much should I just focus on my family,

1995
01:46:15,670 --> 01:46:16,090
my neighbors?

1996
01:46:17,510 --> 01:46:19,450
Well, I don't know how to turn it off

1997
01:46:19,450 --> 01:46:21,170
is the problem I'm having.

1998
01:46:21,430 --> 01:46:21,510
Same.

1999
01:46:22,050 --> 01:46:25,130
But you know this story.

2000
01:46:25,250 --> 01:46:32,550
I do probably 90 podcasts a year of which some number of them are repeats, but it's a lot of people.

2001
01:46:33,390 --> 01:46:38,830
I don't think I've ever run into a podcaster who wasn't already up to speed on this shit.

2002
01:46:39,890 --> 01:46:47,670
The guys who have these chats regularly, you, Mike Ferris, you guys like that, they're all now black-pilled.

2003
01:46:50,050 --> 01:46:51,530
Blue-pilled, whatever it is.

2004
01:46:51,630 --> 01:46:52,930
I can't remember the pill colors.

2005
01:46:53,110 --> 01:46:53,670
Which one is it?

2006
01:46:53,690 --> 01:46:54,510
Which is the one where you go?

2007
01:46:54,510 --> 01:46:57,290
Red pill is where it's like everything's doing.

2008
01:46:57,410 --> 01:46:59,350
Blue pill is just like your normie, MPC.

2009
01:47:00,350 --> 01:47:02,830
And red pill is where you see the reality.

2010
01:47:03,190 --> 01:47:04,990
White pill is like, hey, the future is bright.

2011
01:47:05,210 --> 01:47:05,710
We're going to win.

2012
01:47:06,670 --> 01:47:09,150
I like to take the white pill.

2013
01:47:09,890 --> 01:47:10,750
Yeah, I know.

2014
01:47:11,130 --> 01:47:13,570
While at the same time chewing on the red pill.

2015
01:47:13,770 --> 01:47:15,110
Yes, understanding.

2016
01:47:15,410 --> 01:47:21,110
But I'm stunned at the number of people who are educated, intelligent,

2017
01:47:21,330 --> 01:47:22,370
don't confuse the two.

2018
01:47:22,370 --> 01:47:24,130
the Venn diagram overlap

2019
01:47:24,130 --> 01:47:25,330
is not that good on those two

2020
01:47:25,330 --> 01:47:27,390
and

2021
01:47:27,390 --> 01:47:29,850
who are onto this shit

2022
01:47:29,850 --> 01:47:32,410
and I go I just don't think that would have been the case

2023
01:47:32,410 --> 01:47:34,150
10 or 15 years ago

2024
01:47:34,150 --> 01:47:35,450
I just

2025
01:47:35,450 --> 01:47:36,470
you know

2026
01:47:36,470 --> 01:47:39,370
I don't think most people thought about 9-11

2027
01:47:39,370 --> 01:47:41,770
what do you think the percentage of people

2028
01:47:41,770 --> 01:47:43,170
think 9-11 screwed up now

2029
01:47:43,170 --> 01:47:44,810
what do you think the percentage is

2030
01:47:44,810 --> 01:47:47,430
it's probably at 30

2031
01:47:47,430 --> 01:47:48,730
which is pretty high

2032
01:47:48,730 --> 01:47:49,950
I would say

2033
01:47:49,950 --> 01:47:55,030
What percentage have watched Building 7 drop and find it normal?

2034
01:47:55,910 --> 01:47:56,310
Zero.

2035
01:47:56,730 --> 01:47:57,410
So that's the thing.

2036
01:47:57,690 --> 01:47:59,450
I think 30% are aware of Building 7.

2037
01:47:59,570 --> 01:48:01,830
Once you're aware of Building 7, it's like, wait a second, what the heck?

2038
01:48:01,910 --> 01:48:06,570
Well, the other one that I think is actually bigger is that there's not a shred of footage of the Pentagon getting hit.

2039
01:48:08,510 --> 01:48:09,390
Two frames.

2040
01:48:09,570 --> 01:48:10,870
Neither shows anything, right?

2041
01:48:10,870 --> 01:48:12,790
The official narrative is two frames.

2042
01:48:12,790 --> 01:48:13,690
I think Building 7 is bigger than the Pentagon.

2043
01:48:13,690 --> 01:48:20,150
But you're saying they snuck a jumbo jet into D.C. and no one caught it on film?

2044
01:48:20,590 --> 01:48:21,050
Yeah, no.

2045
01:48:22,810 --> 01:48:23,810
That's pretty big too.

2046
01:48:24,130 --> 01:48:27,070
I agree. The Pentagon is just as bad.

2047
01:48:27,270 --> 01:48:31,650
And then the pictures of Shanksville, I go, you know, Shanksville should have been an unbelievable mess.

2048
01:48:31,710 --> 01:48:35,090
I've heard that when you go to a plane crash, it is beyond comprehension.

2049
01:48:35,290 --> 01:48:36,650
It's a yard sale. Shit everywhere.

2050
01:48:37,590 --> 01:48:42,810
And you look at the Shanksville and there's nothing.

2051
01:48:42,810 --> 01:48:46,810
All the luggage, all the plane, the plane's gone, nothing.

2052
01:48:47,110 --> 01:48:48,350
Just a big hole in the ground.

2053
01:48:48,470 --> 01:48:50,430
I go, so where did all these people go?

2054
01:48:51,570 --> 01:48:53,350
Was there ever a real plane?

2055
01:48:54,450 --> 01:48:59,350
Well, that's the – my brother and I discovered this a couple years ago.

2056
01:49:00,510 --> 01:49:10,450
Because when we were – when I was – when we were in high school, I think I forget if it was in high school or eighth grade, we watched Loose Change, the original Loose Change.

2057
01:49:11,130 --> 01:49:12,430
I remember that.

2058
01:49:12,430 --> 01:49:15,150
We gave a presentation. I can't find the original Liz Change.

2059
01:49:15,550 --> 01:49:20,810
Apparently they have Apple TV and we read it and we're like, this isn't the original Liz Change.

2060
01:49:20,810 --> 01:49:23,810
I think they buried the original Liz Change documentary.

2061
01:49:24,830 --> 01:49:30,210
The other one that was disappearing a lot was Planet of the Humans by Moore.

2062
01:49:30,970 --> 01:49:34,250
Who's the super lefty? What's his first name?

2063
01:49:34,930 --> 01:49:37,050
Famous, famous, famous filmmaker Moore.

2064
01:49:37,370 --> 01:49:38,130
Oh, Michael Moore.

2065
01:49:38,430 --> 01:49:38,970
Michael Moore.

2066
01:49:38,970 --> 01:49:41,390
and he went to make a story about climate change

2067
01:49:41,390 --> 01:49:43,370
and he discovered that the whole thing was fucked up

2068
01:49:43,370 --> 01:49:45,390
and he made diesel engines at the end.

2069
01:49:45,410 --> 01:49:45,970
Planet of the Humans.

2070
01:49:46,290 --> 01:49:48,230
And so the whole thing was like, holy fuck,

2071
01:49:48,290 --> 01:49:49,850
we just had this all wrong, right?

2072
01:49:49,930 --> 01:49:52,650
Michael Moore got flipped by looking into it.

2073
01:49:52,890 --> 01:49:55,570
I sat down with Constantine Kyson on climate change.

2074
01:49:55,850 --> 01:49:57,770
Again, this is still going on,

2075
01:49:57,810 --> 01:50:00,150
although it's disappearing now, I think.

2076
01:50:00,310 --> 01:50:02,350
The climate change story's going away,

2077
01:50:02,410 --> 01:50:04,070
I think, because it's in AI's way.

2078
01:50:05,090 --> 01:50:05,770
It is.

2079
01:50:05,770 --> 01:50:12,630
But I sat down with Constantine Kyson one day, and he gave the most brilliant talk on climate change.

2080
01:50:13,030 --> 01:50:15,670
Just the funniest, most brilliant talk at the Oxford Union.

2081
01:50:15,870 --> 01:50:17,670
If anyone's listening, search that.

2082
01:50:17,750 --> 01:50:20,070
Oxford Union, Constantine Kyson.

2083
01:50:20,330 --> 01:50:20,810
Yeah, debate.

2084
01:50:21,450 --> 01:50:22,370
It was brilliant.

2085
01:50:22,710 --> 01:50:27,610
I transcribed it, and I realized that it was perfect English the whole way.

2086
01:50:27,710 --> 01:50:29,550
A verbal presentation, no-nos.

2087
01:50:29,890 --> 01:50:32,170
Perfect English, all it needed were punctuation marks.

2088
01:50:32,170 --> 01:50:37,110
and I asked him, I said, when you dug into climate change,

2089
01:50:37,150 --> 01:50:39,430
how long did it take you to figure out it was bullshit?

2090
01:50:40,290 --> 01:50:41,350
And he said, oh, a couple hours.

2091
01:50:42,370 --> 01:50:43,470
That's the same with me.

2092
01:50:44,010 --> 01:50:46,850
When someone finally said, look at it,

2093
01:50:47,650 --> 01:50:48,790
it took me about three hours.

2094
01:50:48,890 --> 01:50:50,650
I go, oh, this story's fucked up.

2095
01:50:51,570 --> 01:50:53,130
Oh, this story's fucked up.

2096
01:50:54,010 --> 01:50:56,830
And it's going to go away because AI can't afford

2097
01:50:56,830 --> 01:51:00,430
to have people saying, oh, we can't have coal-fired power plants.

2098
01:51:00,430 --> 01:51:05,310
Well, you see, nuclear power facilities are now ESG-friendly after decades of being –

2099
01:51:05,310 --> 01:51:05,750
I'm told.

2100
01:51:06,550 --> 01:51:10,950
Although someone – oh, I think it was Brendan Icke yesterday.

2101
01:51:11,370 --> 01:51:18,010
I was talking about that Twitter space is where he showed up, and he was saying he doesn't think these small nukes are going to – the way of the future.

2102
01:51:18,510 --> 01:51:19,690
He thinks you need the big ones.

2103
01:51:21,130 --> 01:51:22,010
I can see that.

2104
01:51:22,390 --> 01:51:24,610
And he's a smart guy, but –

2105
01:51:24,610 --> 01:51:25,550
I don't see why not at all.

2106
01:51:25,630 --> 01:51:30,070
I mean we have small modular reactors on the warships already.

2107
01:51:30,070 --> 01:51:37,710
I don't know. I'm just passing along the opinion of a guy who's been there and done that in a very big way.

2108
01:51:39,930 --> 01:51:45,510
The host didn't know who he was, so I kept trying to get Brendan to jump in.

2109
01:51:46,230 --> 01:51:51,450
The host was picking people who he knew, and I said, got to get Brendan in here.

2110
01:51:51,970 --> 01:51:52,910
What basis was this?

2111
01:51:52,910 --> 01:51:59,190
Well, I just did a podcast with a guy named Kevin Malone, and Brendan showed up because

2112
01:51:59,190 --> 01:52:02,370
Brendan and I swapped DMs just every day almost.

2113
01:52:03,370 --> 01:52:09,910
And then I finally got Brendan to jump in, and Brendan and I took over the Twitter space.

2114
01:52:10,690 --> 01:52:15,770
It was really, it was really, but it was, I think the host was just awed when he realized,

2115
01:52:16,490 --> 01:52:20,950
and I said, for those of you who don't know who Brendan is, you know, and I laid out his

2116
01:52:20,950 --> 01:52:24,870
CV and said, he's been there.

2117
01:52:24,950 --> 01:52:25,930
He knows this game.

2118
01:52:25,930 --> 01:52:26,330
Yeah.

2119
01:52:26,530 --> 01:52:27,410
The inventor of JavaScript.

2120
01:52:27,850 --> 01:52:29,770
You either love him or hate him for that, depending on.

2121
01:52:29,950 --> 01:52:35,350
Well, the funny story I like to tell in a relatively short period of time, I was trolling

2122
01:52:35,350 --> 01:52:42,270
Twitter for help with, you know, I needed a spam blocker mostly for Zero Hedge.

2123
01:52:43,350 --> 01:52:47,610
And I said, what's the best spam blocker for Firefox?

2124
01:52:47,890 --> 01:52:50,570
Because you don't just go to the internet and download shit, right?

2125
01:52:50,570 --> 01:52:52,990
I mean, that strikes me as a bad thing to do.

2126
01:52:53,750 --> 01:52:57,850
And Brendan chimes in and said, well, this is the one you ought to use.

2127
01:52:58,310 --> 01:52:59,990
He wrote Firefox.

2128
01:53:01,490 --> 01:53:09,330
So I'm getting – so then one day I'm having trouble with Microsoft Outlook, and I've got the former president of Microsoft troubleshooting Outlook for me.

2129
01:53:10,830 --> 01:53:13,330
The former president was Steve Sanofsky.

2130
01:53:14,030 --> 01:53:16,510
He was second under Balmer after Gates left.

2131
01:53:16,510 --> 01:53:20,470
I think he left because he realized Balmer wasn't going to get out of his way.

2132
01:53:20,570 --> 01:53:24,470
or he wasn't going to get the top dog spot because he's no longer a Microsoft.

2133
01:53:25,710 --> 01:53:30,630
But so in any event, so I've said they're going, you know,

2134
01:53:30,690 --> 01:53:35,510
this is the highest watermark of Twitter you can get when you got the president of Microsoft

2135
01:53:35,510 --> 01:53:38,910
troubleshooting your Microsoft-based email program.

2136
01:53:39,310 --> 01:53:44,190
At one point I said, you know, I said, Steve, they've completely fucked up the menus now.

2137
01:53:44,250 --> 01:53:46,570
They've moved everything. It's like moving Helen Keller's chairs.

2138
01:53:46,570 --> 01:53:49,610
He said, yeah, he said, I thought we locked it down in 2007.

2139
01:53:49,610 --> 01:53:50,850
and I'm as confused as you.

2140
01:53:53,890 --> 01:53:56,210
It seems like they've completely messed up everything,

2141
01:53:56,350 --> 01:53:58,970
at least on the operating system side.

2142
01:54:00,190 --> 01:54:00,630
Right.

2143
01:54:01,010 --> 01:54:03,570
And by the way, this AI battle,

2144
01:54:03,730 --> 01:54:05,870
those tech giants are going to kill each other.

2145
01:54:05,870 --> 01:54:11,710
This is going to be like Godzilla versus Mothra versus King Kong.

2146
01:54:12,050 --> 01:54:15,850
And they're not all going to be left standing.

2147
01:54:16,710 --> 01:54:17,310
No.

2148
01:54:17,310 --> 01:54:26,050
And the best way it got phrased is they were high profit margin, low capex businesses.

2149
01:54:26,550 --> 01:54:32,590
So that's one of the reasons they were carrying the market so well, besides passive investing and stuff like that.

2150
01:54:33,070 --> 01:54:38,590
But now they're in lower profits, high capex market.

2151
01:54:38,610 --> 01:54:41,330
I mean, right now they're loss leaders, right?

2152
01:54:41,350 --> 01:54:42,070
They're subsidizing.

2153
01:54:42,070 --> 01:54:50,830
well. They are, the cost of what they're doing is not even, is, is, is, is smaller than the revenues,

2154
01:54:51,290 --> 01:54:57,590
the revenues. So their revenues aren't even covering, forget about profits. They're just

2155
01:54:57,590 --> 01:55:04,170
sucking up all the revenues plus more of those companies. Well, it's, it's just a user grab

2156
01:55:04,170 --> 01:55:09,110
right now. Like I was telling you, I use Claude and I bang it all day. And that's winner take all.

2157
01:55:09,110 --> 01:55:09,870
It's winner take all.

2158
01:55:10,470 --> 01:55:19,990
I was talking to a friend who is way more savvy when it comes to computer science and understanding how much this compute should cost.

2159
01:55:20,110 --> 01:55:25,590
He was like, yeah, it should be costing like $2,000 a day if you're hitting limits.

2160
01:55:26,190 --> 01:55:29,490
It's nowhere – it's a tenth of that for –

2161
01:55:29,490 --> 01:55:34,670
It's like – I remember one year I made reference.

2162
01:55:34,670 --> 01:55:36,750
during COVID, I think it was the year of COVID,

2163
01:55:36,970 --> 01:55:41,130
I said Skype lost a 35-0 lead.

2164
01:55:43,310 --> 01:55:45,750
Zoom just completely wiped them out.

2165
01:55:46,630 --> 01:55:48,610
And now you've got Riverside, you've got others,

2166
01:55:48,770 --> 01:55:50,570
but Skype, has anyone Skype?

2167
01:55:50,990 --> 01:55:52,930
I think Skype shut down officially.

2168
01:55:53,470 --> 01:55:55,310
Okay, well, there's the answer.

2169
01:55:56,590 --> 01:55:59,750
And so I think these megatechs

2170
01:55:59,750 --> 01:56:03,510
are on this total self-destruction path

2171
01:56:04,670 --> 01:56:22,250
I guess it's the passive investing, the mindless robot of Michael Green's fame, just won't let them reprice yet.

2172
01:56:23,530 --> 01:56:25,510
What do you think would cause a repricing?

2173
01:56:27,510 --> 01:56:33,930
Mike sent me a draft of a paper that had tons of math in it.

2174
01:56:33,930 --> 01:56:58,330
I underestimated Mike. I thought he just had this sort of one simple idea. Okay, fine. Good idea. No, he studied it much more deeply. He really understands the math of it. And what was missing from his paper, and I said, what you need is a paragraph that says, these are the things that could cause the flows to reverse.

2175
01:56:58,330 --> 01:57:02,110
and I said aim it at the golden retrievers

2176
01:57:02,110 --> 01:57:04,130
that famous line in the movie

2177
01:57:04,130 --> 01:57:06,030
tell me like I'm a golden retriever

2178
01:57:06,030 --> 01:57:09,410
and I said you got it

2179
01:57:09,410 --> 01:57:11,110
deep recession

2180
01:57:11,110 --> 01:57:15,650
flow of capital back overseas

2181
01:57:15,650 --> 01:57:18,130
young people not getting jobs

2182
01:57:18,130 --> 01:57:20,290
young people not getting jobs

2183
01:57:20,290 --> 01:57:25,370
a slowing of the flow which causes the markets to start toppling

2184
01:57:25,370 --> 01:57:28,310
people saying I'm not buying any more of this shit

2185
01:57:28,310 --> 01:57:31,170
I mean, there's just – it will find a way.

2186
01:57:31,350 --> 01:57:32,430
The free market will find a way.

2187
01:57:32,650 --> 01:57:40,470
The other maxim that anyone who's ever studied the history of finance will tell you is once a good idea becomes widely known, it's not a good idea.

2188
01:57:41,990 --> 01:57:48,930
And as a consequence, passive investing – I got Jack Bogle to admit there was a problem with it.

2189
01:57:50,230 --> 01:57:57,770
I cornered him, and I said, Jack, in the olden days when big money managers actively manage funds,

2190
01:57:57,770 --> 01:57:59,070
and a company got out of line,

2191
01:57:59,810 --> 01:58:01,510
they'd go in their office and give them shit.

2192
01:58:02,130 --> 01:58:04,750
I said, is it possible that the passive investing,

2193
01:58:04,850 --> 01:58:07,510
one of the downsides is there's no adult supervision now.

2194
01:58:08,510 --> 01:58:10,630
There's no one that's going to go into the CEO's office

2195
01:58:10,630 --> 01:58:12,430
and say, you got to get your shit together.

2196
01:58:12,550 --> 01:58:13,570
We're going to sell your shares

2197
01:58:13,570 --> 01:58:15,170
and we're a big swinging dick here.

2198
01:58:16,590 --> 01:58:18,330
And Jack admitted it.

2199
01:58:18,730 --> 01:58:20,290
Is that what BlackRock and Vanguard do?

2200
01:58:21,090 --> 01:58:23,350
No, no, they just want the flows.

2201
01:58:23,950 --> 01:58:25,550
They just want the flows, right?

2202
01:58:25,550 --> 01:58:27,290
They just want the money.

2203
01:58:27,770 --> 01:58:34,310
They want that. It's all about rerouting the flows through your organization so you get your big off the flow.

2204
01:58:35,150 --> 01:58:38,350
And until those flows reverse, boomers retiring.

2205
01:58:39,630 --> 01:58:46,510
Right. At some point, the boomers demographic is going to be taken out faster than the impoverished demographics putting it in.

2206
01:58:47,130 --> 01:58:53,750
Well, that's retiring or dying. I think that's another thing with the vaccine specifically.

2207
01:58:53,750 --> 01:58:58,290
Well, so here's what I believe, but I don't have a good model for it.

2208
01:58:58,290 --> 01:59:06,010
I do not believe – people have this image that there's going to be this gigantic wealth transfer from the boomers to the next generation.

2209
01:59:06,310 --> 01:59:09,910
And I just – it's almost a religious belief on my part.

2210
01:59:10,850 --> 01:59:14,170
I don't think you can do that without the repricing occurring.

2211
01:59:17,230 --> 01:59:18,010
What do you mean?

2212
01:59:18,190 --> 01:59:22,790
You do it and the children sell the asset right away?

2213
01:59:22,790 --> 01:59:33,550
I think the process of the wealth transferring from the boomers down to the younger generation, part of that process will include the repricing.

2214
01:59:34,710 --> 01:59:39,090
I don't think we can pass – for example, I don't think we can pass our – let's say you have a house worth $2 million.

2215
01:59:40,410 --> 01:59:42,690
You can't pass that house to the next generation.

2216
01:59:44,150 --> 01:59:47,730
My kids can't even afford the taxes of my house.

2217
01:59:50,410 --> 01:59:51,670
They don't want the house.

2218
01:59:51,670 --> 01:59:52,770
They can't afford the maintenance.

2219
01:59:53,250 --> 01:59:54,690
You got an expensive house.

2220
01:59:54,770 --> 01:59:57,630
You got some big McMansion or something made out of plastic.

2221
01:59:58,570 --> 01:59:59,650
They don't want to live.

2222
01:59:59,750 --> 02:00:01,470
They've been raised not to want to live there.

2223
02:00:01,710 --> 02:00:04,650
They've been told since daycare they have a small footprint.

2224
02:00:05,890 --> 02:00:10,150
They don't believe in garish display because they know they can't do it.

2225
02:00:10,210 --> 02:00:11,110
Let's start with that.

2226
02:00:12,150 --> 02:00:13,530
Yeah, that's a very good point.

2227
02:00:13,810 --> 02:00:15,550
It's kind of a sour grapes problem.

2228
02:00:15,790 --> 02:00:17,130
The house gets passed down.

2229
02:00:17,230 --> 02:00:18,530
They say, hey, I'd rather have the cash.

2230
02:00:19,230 --> 02:00:21,430
I'd rather have the cash so the house gets sold.

2231
02:00:21,670 --> 02:00:24,550
And no one takes their parents' house and lives in it.

2232
02:00:24,690 --> 02:00:25,870
Who the fuck does that?

2233
02:00:26,510 --> 02:00:26,790
Yeah.

2234
02:00:27,350 --> 02:00:28,210
Except farmers.

2235
02:00:31,270 --> 02:00:31,670
Yeah.

2236
02:00:33,090 --> 02:00:38,650
We're going to go to multi-generational housing at some point, which at first will feel like a failure, which it already is.

2237
02:00:38,690 --> 02:00:40,610
You know, your kid's sleeping on the sofa in the basement.

2238
02:00:41,490 --> 02:00:44,770
It will then become an accepted thing.

2239
02:00:45,770 --> 02:00:46,690
I'm actually –

2240
02:00:46,690 --> 02:00:46,990
Because –

2241
02:00:46,990 --> 02:00:48,310
I'm welcoming of that.

2242
02:00:48,310 --> 02:00:52,770
Well, you know, the grandparents take care of the kids while the parents work.

2243
02:00:53,330 --> 02:00:55,130
They work the fields, the grandparents.

2244
02:00:55,410 --> 02:00:58,670
The grandparents also teach the parents how to be parents.

2245
02:00:59,530 --> 02:01:00,970
It's part of the reason we moved home.

2246
02:01:01,310 --> 02:01:04,770
My mother-in-law, she came and picked up the baby yesterday.

2247
02:01:04,930 --> 02:01:05,750
Right, right.

2248
02:01:05,930 --> 02:01:07,490
Never give a sucker an even break.

2249
02:01:08,170 --> 02:01:09,690
By the way, you want to go bankrupt?

2250
02:01:11,370 --> 02:01:14,390
Fastest route to bankruptcy is to be married to a grandmother.

2251
02:01:14,390 --> 02:01:19,070
she will drain your bank account into those grandchildren.

2252
02:01:19,930 --> 02:01:20,810
Wait, what was that?

2253
02:01:21,230 --> 02:01:22,130
Married to the grandmother?

2254
02:01:22,450 --> 02:01:23,930
If you're married to a grandmother,

2255
02:01:24,230 --> 02:01:25,830
she's going to drain your bank accounts

2256
02:01:25,830 --> 02:01:29,210
because those grandchildren are going to get every toy imaginable.

2257
02:01:29,910 --> 02:01:31,670
Every imaginable toy.

2258
02:01:31,810 --> 02:01:33,430
To the point where your kids are going,

2259
02:01:33,630 --> 02:01:34,830
Mom, stop, stop.

2260
02:01:35,770 --> 02:01:37,670
You're spoiling the kids to the point,

2261
02:01:37,930 --> 02:01:38,850
you know, this is not good.

2262
02:01:39,990 --> 02:01:42,110
My wife was going to give the kids a ton of money.

2263
02:01:42,110 --> 02:01:44,210
I said, would you please ask Will?

2264
02:01:44,390 --> 02:01:50,970
the son what's an okay number for him don't just hand over a lot of money and have him go

2265
02:01:50,970 --> 02:01:57,370
i can't believe you just did that mom you know yeah so one time we had a delivery truck show up

2266
02:01:57,370 --> 02:02:02,790
at our house and the guy told my wife and my wife actually told me the story which i would have

2267
02:02:02,790 --> 02:02:07,690
buried she said the delivery this was right before christmas she said the delivery guy said

2268
02:02:07,690 --> 02:02:10,250
this truckload is for just your house

2269
02:02:10,250 --> 02:02:20,950
very uh it's giving nature it's good to have you know no it is it is and that's her joy actually

2270
02:02:20,950 --> 02:02:25,570
that's her joy in life is is doting on the grandchildren brett weinstein talks about the

2271
02:02:25,570 --> 02:02:30,490
evolutionary advantage of having a grandmother that there's actually a chance of the young

2272
02:02:30,490 --> 02:02:35,510
surviving because of the grandmother but grand grandmothers are not so our life expectancies

2273
02:02:35,510 --> 02:02:38,730
really were designed to get to grandmother, but not further.

2274
02:02:39,170 --> 02:02:40,270
They become a liability.

2275
02:02:42,010 --> 02:02:46,930
My grandmother's still alive, so the boys, it's their great-grandmother.

2276
02:02:47,430 --> 02:02:51,490
Right, but your grandmother doesn't serve as important a person as your parents.

2277
02:02:51,830 --> 02:02:52,190
No.

2278
02:02:53,330 --> 02:02:55,490
Unless your parents suck and they're crackheads,

2279
02:02:55,590 --> 02:02:57,070
then your grandmother might be important again.

2280
02:02:57,070 --> 02:02:57,510
Yeah.

2281
02:02:58,590 --> 02:03:00,450
That feels good.

2282
02:03:00,650 --> 02:03:02,970
I have a village to help with all this.

2283
02:03:03,130 --> 02:03:05,310
And to your point about multi-generational housing.

2284
02:03:05,510 --> 02:03:19,030
I think my mom's – I don't know how my wife will take this, but I feel like at some point either my mom or her parents will have to move into the house.

2285
02:03:19,030 --> 02:03:36,550
Right. And the other thing is it saves. So they provide daycare services, which is a fortune for families. And also you provide the care for the grandparents as opposed to having to lock them up in some home somewhere.

2286
02:03:37,090 --> 02:03:37,250
Yeah.

2287
02:03:38,010 --> 02:03:42,790
And so it's just and it's much more efficient to run one household. Right.

2288
02:03:43,410 --> 02:03:44,670
Yeah. And I think culturally it's good.

2289
02:03:45,830 --> 02:03:48,970
Culturally, it's good as long as the people involved are good people.

2290
02:03:49,030 --> 02:03:54,250
Yeah. Right. If your father's a satanic pedophile, that's a problem.

2291
02:03:54,370 --> 02:03:59,310
That could be a big problem. But that means you probably are, too. So that's even bigger problem.

2292
02:04:00,050 --> 02:04:05,550
What? Let's wrap it up with a with a message to Gen Z here. Do you have any hope having

2293
02:04:05,550 --> 02:04:09,890
Gen Z's? How old are Gen Z's? There's a kid in your classroom right now.

2294
02:04:10,510 --> 02:04:14,570
Oh, yeah. Actually, I do give them messages all through the semester, which gets me in trouble.

2295
02:04:14,570 --> 02:04:17,190
they're going to have to cope with

2296
02:04:17,190 --> 02:04:19,110
they're totally

2297
02:04:19,110 --> 02:04:20,910
screwed up by phones

2298
02:04:20,910 --> 02:04:23,690
by AI, by social media

2299
02:04:23,690 --> 02:04:25,470
literally their

2300
02:04:25,470 --> 02:04:26,870
peripheral vision has shrunk

2301
02:04:26,870 --> 02:04:29,050
physically their peripheral vision

2302
02:04:29,050 --> 02:04:30,670
that's called neuroplasticity

2303
02:04:30,670 --> 02:04:33,210
your brain rewires because all you're doing is focusing

2304
02:04:33,210 --> 02:04:33,810
on the phone

2305
02:04:33,810 --> 02:04:37,270
they'll sit in class and text

2306
02:04:37,270 --> 02:04:38,710
each other so they're not learning

2307
02:04:38,710 --> 02:04:41,050
somewhere

2308
02:04:41,050 --> 02:04:43,270
out in the world are kids who are not making

2309
02:04:43,270 --> 02:04:45,890
this mistake and they will win.

2310
02:04:45,890 --> 02:04:47,590
So I tell the class that you gotta find a way

2311
02:04:47,590 --> 02:04:48,430
to put your phone away.

2312
02:04:48,430 --> 02:04:50,250
I'm not blaming you.

2313
02:04:50,250 --> 02:04:51,770
It's not your fault.

2314
02:04:51,770 --> 02:04:54,330
There is an entire industrial complex out there

2315
02:04:54,330 --> 02:05:09,428
designed to get you to be glued to that phone We raised you it not your fault but you got to find a way to get rid of that phone We are now in a movement where secondary education is now starting to say no phones at school at any point

2316
02:05:09,988 --> 02:05:11,208
They're starting to lock them up.

2317
02:05:11,908 --> 02:05:15,208
And at one point, they tried just saying no phones in class.

2318
02:05:15,308 --> 02:05:18,268
The kids would run into the hall and pop open their phones and not talk to each other.

2319
02:05:18,668 --> 02:05:21,948
So what I noticed last year, maybe it's just an aberrant year.

2320
02:05:22,028 --> 02:05:24,788
I had 25 kids in a class, sophomores, Cornell kids, right?

2321
02:05:24,788 --> 02:05:32,288
These are kids who got into Cornell because not only because they were smart, but because they played football or they were, you know, editor of the yearbook or whatever.

2322
02:05:33,408 --> 02:05:35,128
The entire class was shy.

2323
02:05:36,468 --> 02:05:38,028
Every last one of them was shy.

2324
02:05:38,988 --> 02:05:42,208
There was no kid in there who you say, oh, that's an unruly kid.

2325
02:05:42,288 --> 02:05:46,848
I got to got to, you know, because unruly kids can make a class very entertaining.

2326
02:05:47,288 --> 02:05:52,348
You know, they bring they bring game and none of them.

2327
02:05:52,348 --> 02:05:55,008
I'd make a joke and I voted class clown.

2328
02:05:55,868 --> 02:05:57,648
So I can make jokes.

2329
02:05:58,688 --> 02:06:03,888
And I don't even bother anymore because I just, I don't get anything.

2330
02:06:04,568 --> 02:06:05,128
I get nothing.

2331
02:06:05,908 --> 02:06:07,308
Maybe they've been trafficked.

2332
02:06:07,448 --> 02:06:07,728
I don't know.

2333
02:06:08,708 --> 02:06:09,328
Or I'd stare.

2334
02:06:10,188 --> 02:06:11,408
The blank stare.

2335
02:06:11,528 --> 02:06:13,248
Yeah, it's like they're on Wagovi or something.

2336
02:06:13,548 --> 02:06:14,928
You know, the Wagovi eyes.

2337
02:06:14,928 --> 02:06:24,388
And so they need to – I think their work ethic has fallen off a cliff.

2338
02:06:25,728 --> 02:06:27,808
So when I was in college, I'd get up.

2339
02:06:27,908 --> 02:06:29,168
I'd go to the library at 9.

2340
02:06:29,288 --> 02:06:39,368
I'd come back to my fraternity for dinner, and then I'd go back to the library maybe at 7.30, and then stay there until 11, then come home and maybe fuck around a little.

2341
02:06:40,168 --> 02:06:43,488
And I did that seven days a week, seven days a week.

2342
02:06:43,488 --> 02:06:45,448
Now, I was a little psychotic.

2343
02:06:46,108 --> 02:06:50,948
I was not a good student in high school, but I said, okay, now I got to get my shit together.

2344
02:06:51,348 --> 02:06:52,408
Now it's big league time.

2345
02:06:53,908 --> 02:06:55,548
And it worked really well for me.

2346
02:06:55,648 --> 02:06:56,588
And not everyone did that.

2347
02:06:56,628 --> 02:07:00,068
But in my fraternity, 11 out of 12 went to grad school.

2348
02:07:00,448 --> 02:07:05,288
So 11 out of 12 of the graduating classes I happen to remember went to grad school.

2349
02:07:07,908 --> 02:07:12,348
And it included guys like Rick Sherwin, founded Goldwyn Software Group.

2350
02:07:13,488 --> 02:07:17,508
Brian Murdoch, who was CEO of TD Asset Management.

2351
02:07:17,708 --> 02:07:18,588
I mean, they were good people.

2352
02:07:20,168 --> 02:07:23,268
I don't think the kids today really know how to work at all.

2353
02:07:24,488 --> 02:07:27,768
They don't know how to read an exam question even.

2354
02:07:27,768 --> 02:07:29,748
So if you say, okay, here's the setup.

2355
02:07:30,668 --> 02:07:33,468
Bob does this, Joe does this, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

2356
02:07:33,568 --> 02:07:34,348
What's the answer?

2357
02:07:35,308 --> 02:07:39,748
They literally go to the final line, say, what's the answer, and say, I don't know how to do this.

2358
02:07:39,748 --> 02:07:45,668
You go, you know those first couple of lines you skipped over because this is not a fucking email, right?

2359
02:07:45,728 --> 02:07:47,528
This is not a how you do an email.

2360
02:07:47,688 --> 02:07:51,988
This is a we're giving you information and they don't read it.

2361
02:07:52,048 --> 02:07:56,648
They just skip right over it and get to the message, the message, you know, the question.

2362
02:07:58,908 --> 02:07:59,908
UCSD test.

2363
02:08:00,108 --> 02:08:01,368
They're bringing SATs back.

2364
02:08:01,468 --> 02:08:04,908
I remember when we took out SATs, I go, oh, boy, this is stupid.

2365
02:08:04,908 --> 02:08:08,728
There's problems with SATs, but taking them out is the wrong solution.

2366
02:08:09,748 --> 02:08:12,588
And UCSD is bringing them back.

2367
02:08:12,668 --> 02:08:14,248
They did a study of the freshmen.

2368
02:08:14,788 --> 02:08:20,688
They gave them a test, and they found out there's something like 40% of the freshmen were not middle school level math.

2369
02:08:22,788 --> 02:08:23,528
There's UCSD.

2370
02:08:23,668 --> 02:08:25,348
UCSD is not a bad school, supposedly.

2371
02:08:25,988 --> 02:08:27,688
So they gave an example.

2372
02:08:27,688 --> 02:08:31,968
They said 25% of the kids missed the following question.

2373
02:08:34,448 --> 02:08:39,488
6 plus 3 equals 7 plus X.

2374
02:08:39,488 --> 02:08:40,448
What is X?

2375
02:08:41,028 --> 02:08:42,188
They missed that.

2376
02:08:42,828 --> 02:08:43,268
25%.

2377
02:08:43,268 --> 02:08:47,408
So I gave that question to my first grade grandchild and he got it.

2378
02:08:48,068 --> 02:08:50,248
He had to use his fingers a little bit, you know.

2379
02:08:52,688 --> 02:08:54,168
That's a fundamental problem.

2380
02:08:55,608 --> 02:08:56,788
It's fixable.

2381
02:08:57,188 --> 02:09:00,748
We had a colleague who decided he was going to help the minority students.

2382
02:09:00,968 --> 02:09:06,228
So this is not this is not a welcome secret that, you know, if you're black, you get in easier.

2383
02:09:06,668 --> 02:09:06,908
Right.

2384
02:09:06,908 --> 02:09:10,948
if someone wants to call that racist have a fucking ball you can suck my

2385
02:09:10,948 --> 02:09:11,808
rectum I don't care

2386
02:09:11,808 --> 02:09:19,048
but also you don't want to bring a potentially talented kid who's not

2387
02:09:19,048 --> 02:09:22,888
ready for the big leagues to Cornell and then

2388
02:09:22,888 --> 02:09:27,168
destroy them so you do not need

2389
02:09:27,168 --> 02:09:30,908
women's studies here the women aren't at disadvantage

2390
02:09:30,908 --> 02:09:34,448
you don't need you do need Africana studies

2391
02:09:34,448 --> 02:09:39,108
because if you bring a kid to Cornell and you find out he can't be a physics major,

2392
02:09:40,268 --> 02:09:42,328
you've got to give him something.

2393
02:09:42,568 --> 02:09:46,948
So you have Africana Studies because that kid, you get him through,

2394
02:09:47,388 --> 02:09:49,728
you get him the sheepskin, he will do okay

2395
02:09:49,728 --> 02:09:54,908
because there's still a demand in society for a successful kid.

2396
02:09:55,008 --> 02:09:55,808
He will do okay.

2397
02:09:55,808 --> 02:10:00,108
But if you destroy them, you shouldn't have ever accepted them.

2398
02:10:00,528 --> 02:10:01,988
So you need Africana Studies.

2399
02:10:01,988 --> 02:10:08,468
But one of my colleagues decided that they were failing badly.

2400
02:10:08,608 --> 02:10:09,728
And he looked at the stats.

2401
02:10:09,848 --> 02:10:12,088
Freshman chem, our monster freshman chem course.

2402
02:10:12,508 --> 02:10:15,388
They were occupying C, C- zone.

2403
02:10:15,768 --> 02:10:16,408
It was completely.

2404
02:10:16,668 --> 02:10:19,208
We'd see a black chem major once every five years.

2405
02:10:20,208 --> 02:10:22,648
We were destroying them in freshman chem.

2406
02:10:23,448 --> 02:10:25,108
He set up a boot camp.

2407
02:10:26,668 --> 02:10:27,848
And he drilled them.

2408
02:10:28,128 --> 02:10:29,628
And I said, how bad are they?

2409
02:10:29,628 --> 02:10:40,128
He said, I tell them New York to Chicago, 50 miles, 500 miles, 5,000 miles, about a third, a third, a third.

2410
02:10:40,888 --> 02:10:41,328
What?

2411
02:10:41,908 --> 02:10:42,348
Yeah.

2412
02:10:42,868 --> 02:10:44,288
You grow up in the hood.

2413
02:10:44,428 --> 02:10:45,408
You don't know this shit.

2414
02:10:45,708 --> 02:10:50,168
You can be smart as shit and you can really be trying to get it right, but you don't know this shit.

2415
02:10:50,428 --> 02:10:53,408
You are at a disadvantage that seems insurmountable.

2416
02:10:54,008 --> 02:10:56,948
So he says they can't add fractions, right?

2417
02:10:57,748 --> 02:10:59,448
So he set up a boot camp.

2418
02:10:59,628 --> 02:11:03,388
to teach him how to take freshman camp.

2419
02:11:04,188 --> 02:11:05,928
So like 100 kids in this class.

2420
02:11:06,608 --> 02:11:08,948
And he pulled no punches.

2421
02:11:09,548 --> 02:11:11,408
It was like joining the Marines.

2422
02:11:12,548 --> 02:11:15,808
And he also turned it into a,

2423
02:11:16,868 --> 02:11:18,368
you can beat the white kids.

2424
02:11:19,208 --> 02:11:20,648
Now this guy's Asian.

2425
02:11:20,768 --> 02:11:22,608
His father won the Nobel Prize in physics.

2426
02:11:23,368 --> 02:11:25,188
He's Asian, my colleague.

2427
02:11:25,948 --> 02:11:27,448
He got them into this,

2428
02:11:27,448 --> 02:11:29,328
you can, this is like, okay,

2429
02:11:29,628 --> 02:11:32,568
But you know how to drive to the hoop, right?

2430
02:11:33,008 --> 02:11:35,128
You give me an athlete, I can turn him into a chemist.

2431
02:11:35,168 --> 02:11:35,848
I guarantee you.

2432
02:11:35,928 --> 02:11:37,748
Athletes do great in academia.

2433
02:11:37,928 --> 02:11:39,908
You just have to turn on the competitive gene.

2434
02:11:40,548 --> 02:11:46,528
And these kids not only went way up the charts in freshman chem, we monitored it.

2435
02:11:46,528 --> 02:11:47,948
It carried through to their courses.

2436
02:11:49,128 --> 02:11:54,268
We were starting to see graduating classes with five, six, seven black kids in the chem major.

2437
02:11:56,508 --> 02:11:58,088
Where was the New York Times?

2438
02:11:58,088 --> 02:12:01,108
I told guys who were working on this thing

2439
02:12:01,108 --> 02:12:02,388
I said get the fucking

2440
02:12:02,388 --> 02:12:04,928
I reached out to a reporter said would you write about it

2441
02:12:04,928 --> 02:12:06,668
I go where the fuck is it

2442
02:12:06,668 --> 02:12:07,928
because I wouldn't have believed it

2443
02:12:07,928 --> 02:12:10,668
so it really is the case it just needed

2444
02:12:10,668 --> 02:12:12,788
the right setting but you also

2445
02:12:12,788 --> 02:12:14,248
couldn't be a pussy about it

2446
02:12:14,248 --> 02:12:16,728
you can say well we can't do this

2447
02:12:16,728 --> 02:12:18,268
and you know where he got flack from

2448
02:12:18,268 --> 02:12:20,788
the guy running it he got flack from the

2449
02:12:20,788 --> 02:12:22,748
minority industrial complex over

2450
02:12:22,748 --> 02:12:24,248
in the arts college because

2451
02:12:24,248 --> 02:12:26,088
they were not succeeding

2452
02:12:26,088 --> 02:12:30,248
and he was invading their term.

2453
02:12:30,828 --> 02:12:32,308
You can't do that.

2454
02:12:33,588 --> 02:12:36,608
And by the way, we've got language requirements

2455
02:12:36,608 --> 02:12:37,388
in arts and sciences.

2456
02:12:37,528 --> 02:12:40,448
You might have to take as many as four semesters of language.

2457
02:12:41,948 --> 02:12:44,968
At $2 a credit, four credits per course,

2458
02:12:45,588 --> 02:12:49,028
that's what, $8, $16, $32,000.

2459
02:12:50,288 --> 02:12:52,108
You think that's going to keep going

2460
02:12:52,108 --> 02:12:53,868
as student debt keeps becoming a problem?

2461
02:12:53,868 --> 02:13:00,128
No. You can't make a kid take $32,000 worth of requirement that they don't want.

2462
02:13:01,688 --> 02:13:06,948
But here's the problem. Whenever there's a meeting to discuss the language requirements, all the humanists show up.

2463
02:13:09,108 --> 02:13:13,988
I think college has got to go through a massive change.

2464
02:13:15,288 --> 02:13:20,328
That's why I was a little bummed Trump didn't want to let the bail of the mail last year.

2465
02:13:20,328 --> 02:13:24,588
Well, he did throw a fastball past Harvard's chin and Cornell's chin.

2466
02:13:25,148 --> 02:13:28,928
There was some real chaos by his cutoff of funds.

2467
02:13:31,368 --> 02:13:38,448
Here's what I presented to Lorne Lister back in 2011 at Capital Accounts.

2468
02:13:39,828 --> 02:13:41,688
And at the time, I don't know if anyone was talking about it.

2469
02:13:41,688 --> 02:13:43,168
They have talked about it since.

2470
02:13:43,168 --> 02:13:50,028
where I said you set up a student loan program where you set up a tranche,

2471
02:13:50,628 --> 02:13:59,228
say $100 million to MIT, and you say the deal is they're going to pay it back over 10 years

2472
02:13:59,228 --> 02:14:04,268
by paying a percentage of their salary for the first 10 years.

2473
02:14:05,188 --> 02:14:09,348
So the kids know exactly what fraction of their salary is going to be committed to it.

2474
02:14:09,348 --> 02:14:13,368
and let the free market determine what percentage that ought to be.

2475
02:14:14,168 --> 02:14:18,168
So you give me a Stanford graduating class, I'll go, holy fuck,

2476
02:14:18,268 --> 02:14:21,708
I could get stinking rich if a couple of those guys hit the ball out of the park.

2477
02:14:23,848 --> 02:14:28,688
Mount Jesus Christ of the Holy Mary is not going to do as well.

2478
02:14:28,928 --> 02:14:29,668
What would happen?

2479
02:14:29,668 --> 02:14:32,768
Well, first and foremost, colleges would produce a better product

2480
02:14:32,768 --> 02:14:36,848
because they'd realize that we got to produce a better product.

2481
02:14:36,848 --> 02:14:39,808
and many would go out of business,

2482
02:14:39,808 --> 02:14:41,788
which I think we're going to see in the next 20 years.

2483
02:14:41,968 --> 02:14:44,848
I think we're going to see a big attrition of colleges.

2484
02:14:45,248 --> 02:14:46,928
If you talk to people my age with kids,

2485
02:14:47,888 --> 02:14:52,268
a lot of us sort of come resigned to the fact

2486
02:14:52,268 --> 02:14:53,868
that we don't think colleges are going to exist.

2487
02:14:54,048 --> 02:14:55,588
Learn how to fix elevators.

2488
02:14:55,708 --> 02:14:56,488
Now, it'll exist,

2489
02:14:56,588 --> 02:14:58,168
and it just has to have a much smaller footprint.

2490
02:14:58,588 --> 02:14:59,628
There's still a purpose for it.

2491
02:14:59,788 --> 02:15:01,428
And by the way, massive online courses,

2492
02:15:01,528 --> 02:15:03,508
that whole thing, COVID proved that sucks.

2493
02:15:04,028 --> 02:15:05,648
No one learned anything online.

2494
02:15:05,648 --> 02:15:15,088
The online shit didn't work. But then I realized, put that debt, those tranches in the endowment.

2495
02:15:17,428 --> 02:15:25,948
So now the college really has a reason to produce a product because it's their own endowment.

2496
02:15:27,768 --> 02:15:32,908
And if they're stressful, they can really expand those profit margins.

2497
02:15:32,908 --> 02:15:41,608
Now, why would that land like a lead balloon? Because then all of a sudden the humanities would be at great risk of going away.

2498
02:15:42,368 --> 02:15:46,088
You can't have the Marxist in our university systems getting –

2499
02:15:46,088 --> 02:15:57,388
What would you do? You know how many – so here's the English world. The English department, you have, of course, the scholarly shit. You have journalism, gone, right?

2500
02:15:57,388 --> 02:16:16,048
You have writing gone. AI is taking that out, which is horrifying to me, actually, but it's true. We have 50-something English faculty. They all going to study Chaucer? Right?

2501
02:16:16,048 --> 02:16:19,888
The Canterbury Tell is a classic. You've got to read it.

2502
02:16:19,888 --> 02:16:25,488
I know. I know. I know. So my advice to the students is you've got to learn to study.

2503
02:16:25,968 --> 02:16:32,048
I tell them about flashcards, why they're so useful. I tell them about studying every subject

2504
02:16:32,048 --> 02:16:39,808
every day. The first day of class, the first day of the semester is every bit as valuable as the

2505
02:16:39,808 --> 02:16:45,968
last day. You just don't know it. In fact, I freshman year figured out those 30 days between

2506
02:16:45,968 --> 02:16:53,668
fall and spring and those 100 plus days between spring and fall, that's valuable time too.

2507
02:16:53,828 --> 02:16:57,828
So I would figure out what course I was going to take, figure out what they would ask me to read,

2508
02:16:57,868 --> 02:17:03,288
and I would read that shit during the intercession so that I would hit the ground

2509
02:17:03,288 --> 02:17:08,928
with momentum at the start of the semester and go to the library at 9 o'clock, day one,

2510
02:17:10,228 --> 02:17:14,548
set the routine, don't wait for the semester to catch up to you.

2511
02:17:15,968 --> 02:17:20,068
so there's all sorts of things you can do to game the system

2512
02:17:20,068 --> 02:17:21,448
and to get an education

2513
02:17:21,448 --> 02:17:24,508
and they just have to do it

2514
02:17:24,508 --> 02:17:28,088
as you've been describing it doesn't seem like it's very hard to stick out

2515
02:17:28,088 --> 02:17:30,408
and be an out performer

2516
02:17:30,408 --> 02:17:32,568
you're competing globally now

2517
02:17:32,568 --> 02:17:38,728
and so I guarantee the kids in China are not studying Chaucer

2518
02:17:38,728 --> 02:17:42,688
they're putting out a lot

2519
02:17:42,688 --> 02:17:51,068
When I was an assistant professor, I went to a meeting at DuPont with 10 chemists and 10 engineer assistant professors.

2520
02:17:52,108 --> 02:17:53,828
The difference between the two is stunning.

2521
02:17:54,108 --> 02:17:57,808
The engineers were so different than the chemists, so stunningly different than the chemists.

2522
02:17:58,948 --> 02:18:09,608
And DuPont said we could hire every single Ph.D. in chemical engineering every year.

2523
02:18:09,608 --> 02:18:13,008
We're not seeing enough

2524
02:18:13,008 --> 02:18:14,448
We're just not getting enough

2525
02:18:14,448 --> 02:18:16,788
Yeah, well that's

2526
02:18:16,788 --> 02:18:18,508
Talk about fourth turning

2527
02:18:18,508 --> 02:18:19,848
Atlas shrugged

2528
02:18:19,848 --> 02:18:22,628
Like this competency crisis

2529
02:18:22,628 --> 02:18:23,848
That could be on the horizon too

2530
02:18:23,848 --> 02:18:26,528
So Trump wants to import everything here

2531
02:18:26,528 --> 02:18:28,208
Trump could turn out 100 years from now

2532
02:18:28,208 --> 02:18:29,828
To look like a historically important figure

2533
02:18:29,828 --> 02:18:33,348
The problem is

2534
02:18:33,348 --> 02:18:35,328
That this is multi-generational

2535
02:18:35,328 --> 02:18:36,228
That's what Brendan said

2536
02:18:36,228 --> 02:18:37,968
He says it's multi-generational

2537
02:18:37,968 --> 02:18:43,788
it's going to take several generations for us to turn this super tanker

2538
02:18:43,788 --> 02:18:48,268
after several generations of it turning the wrong way

2539
02:18:48,268 --> 02:18:51,248
this is not a bring it here

2540
02:18:51,248 --> 02:18:53,748
next year shit

2541
02:18:53,748 --> 02:18:58,748
I'm looking for this tweet I saw this morning that I actually retweeted

2542
02:18:58,748 --> 02:19:00,808
it might have been yesterday

2543
02:19:00,808 --> 02:19:06,448
but it was about I think mining majors

2544
02:19:06,448 --> 02:19:08,688
Like obviously we have this dash.

2545
02:19:09,068 --> 02:19:09,228
Probably none.

2546
02:19:09,508 --> 02:19:10,188
Are there any?

2547
02:19:10,948 --> 02:19:12,288
So I'm looking for, let me find it.

2548
02:19:12,348 --> 02:19:14,128
It should be high school seniors.

2549
02:19:14,288 --> 02:19:17,248
Consider checking out a BS in mining engineering.

2550
02:19:17,548 --> 02:19:21,128
The entire U.S. graduates 162 mining engineers per year.

2551
02:19:21,988 --> 02:19:22,548
Bachelors?

2552
02:19:23,028 --> 02:19:23,608
Yeah.

2553
02:19:24,668 --> 02:19:25,748
Holy shit.

2554
02:19:25,848 --> 02:19:29,868
By the way, start scoping housing in Greenland.

2555
02:19:30,308 --> 02:19:30,748
Right.

2556
02:19:33,748 --> 02:19:36,348
Mining is a terribly difficult business.

2557
02:19:36,448 --> 02:19:41,168
Yeah, so 500 to 600 per year are needed to sustain current operations.

2558
02:19:41,488 --> 02:19:44,388
We're producing 162 engineers per year.

2559
02:19:45,188 --> 02:19:47,088
And given how much the U.S. expanded mining this year,

2560
02:19:47,188 --> 02:19:49,348
it seems like a choke point, so it's going to go up.

2561
02:19:49,588 --> 02:19:53,548
And where do you – what happens when you lose the technology?

2562
02:19:55,488 --> 02:19:59,448
What happens when there's no one left who knows how to set up a rig,

2563
02:19:59,568 --> 02:20:02,328
knows how to set up a – knows how to start a mine?

2564
02:20:02,788 --> 02:20:04,428
That's the other worrying thing about AI too.

2565
02:20:04,428 --> 02:20:11,928
So if you just allocate the understanding of this work to the machine and you wake up, something happens to the machine.

2566
02:20:12,628 --> 02:20:14,288
And no one knows how to fix it.

2567
02:20:14,368 --> 02:20:14,588
Yeah.

2568
02:20:15,488 --> 02:20:17,368
No, no, that's absolutely terrifying to me.

2569
02:20:17,448 --> 02:20:19,928
And also not to mention, the system will be so brittle.

2570
02:20:20,988 --> 02:20:24,388
You know, you'll be talking to some AI and there just will be no way.

2571
02:20:24,388 --> 02:20:27,788
There will be no mechanism for a human to say, OK, I see your problem.

2572
02:20:27,848 --> 02:20:28,688
Let me help you out here.

2573
02:20:29,508 --> 02:20:30,548
Let's push away the bullshit.

2574
02:20:30,688 --> 02:20:31,228
Let's solve this.

2575
02:20:31,228 --> 02:20:37,828
I actually got Social Security this year, and I was shocked to discover last year that I was going to get Social Security.

2576
02:20:38,448 --> 02:20:39,928
I go, oh, fuck, I turn 70.

2577
02:20:40,188 --> 02:20:40,888
I get Social Security.

2578
02:20:41,168 --> 02:20:42,888
Turns out I get a fuck ton of money.

2579
02:20:44,288 --> 02:20:46,788
I've not run into someone who gets as much Social Security as me.

2580
02:20:46,828 --> 02:20:47,448
I don't know why.

2581
02:20:47,488 --> 02:20:50,108
I thought we all got sort of like the upper cap or something.

2582
02:20:50,688 --> 02:20:57,128
But my Social Security is like 60K, which considering I didn't know was coming, that's a lot of money.

2583
02:20:57,128 --> 02:21:01,888
and so I sign up for it

2584
02:21:01,888 --> 02:21:03,828
and they say sign up four months in advance

2585
02:21:03,828 --> 02:21:05,968
and then Trump gets into power

2586
02:21:05,968 --> 02:21:08,268
and I'm going oh boy this is going to get all fucked up

2587
02:21:08,268 --> 02:21:09,768
all the cuts and shit

2588
02:21:09,768 --> 02:21:12,448
but I can see it kind of progressing

2589
02:21:12,448 --> 02:21:13,628
and then some lady calls me

2590
02:21:13,628 --> 02:21:16,188
and the first thing that's amazing is she was competent

2591
02:21:16,188 --> 02:21:17,888
she was competent

2592
02:21:17,888 --> 02:21:19,368
she says let me help you out

2593
02:21:19,368 --> 02:21:20,948
I'm finishing up your application here

2594
02:21:20,948 --> 02:21:22,708
I could understand her

2595
02:21:22,708 --> 02:21:25,248
and then she says something about

2596
02:21:25,248 --> 02:21:26,488
do you have dependents

2597
02:21:26,488 --> 02:21:30,868
I go, yeah, my wife. Why? And she said, well, does she get Social Security?

2598
02:21:30,988 --> 02:21:36,888
I said, well, she gets a tiny amount. She said, well, she's not eligible to get half of what you get.

2599
02:21:38,308 --> 02:21:44,308
I go, what? They said, yeah, she gets a step up to half of yours.

2600
02:21:46,388 --> 02:21:50,508
And I go, has that always been true? She said, yeah, I didn't even know that.

2601
02:21:50,568 --> 02:21:53,388
So all of a sudden she went from getting almost nothing to $30,000.

2602
02:21:53,388 --> 02:22:00,908
and so I go oh wow and then she says is she there I can help her and I said no and so she says give

2603
02:22:00,908 --> 02:22:07,428
me her number I'll call her I get home her account's all set up I go where did they find this

2604
02:22:07,428 --> 02:22:11,888
person to work for the federal government it's encouraging it is encouraging there is at least

2605
02:22:11,888 --> 02:22:17,668
one good good someone said the graft is encouraging oh it was Robbie the Robbie the fire said the

2606
02:22:17,668 --> 02:22:19,728
graph was encouraging because it shows you how much

2607
02:22:19,728 --> 02:22:20,608
we could save.

2608
02:22:21,708 --> 02:22:23,668
It's, I mean, estimates

2609
02:22:23,668 --> 02:22:25,868
up to, what, $500 billion a year, probably.

2610
02:22:26,028 --> 02:22:26,808
I imagine it's higher.

2611
02:22:27,228 --> 02:22:28,468
Oh, it's got to be trillions.

2612
02:22:28,568 --> 02:22:31,268
They haven't looked at the military budget yet, if you think there's

2613
02:22:31,268 --> 02:22:33,488
not a similar amount of waste

2614
02:22:33,488 --> 02:22:35,348
within that. But we do have to keep sending money

2615
02:22:35,348 --> 02:22:36,908
to Ukraine.

2616
02:22:38,128 --> 02:22:38,528
Yes.

2617
02:22:39,748 --> 02:22:40,248
And Israel.

2618
02:22:40,248 --> 02:22:41,808
And Israel.

2619
02:22:42,388 --> 02:22:44,368
And we do have to

2620
02:22:44,368 --> 02:22:46,188
keep... Venezuela

2621
02:22:46,188 --> 02:22:47,528
I'm agnostic on.

2622
02:22:47,668 --> 02:22:59,268
I totally Dave Smith it in the sense that I do understand that stealing heads of state strikes me as a precedent-setting move that seems a little over the edge.

2623
02:23:00,288 --> 02:23:06,608
Did you see the Dave Smith, Dinesh D'Souza crash out?

2624
02:23:08,148 --> 02:23:09,068
So was your take on that?

2625
02:23:09,648 --> 02:23:10,888
What was that about H-1Bs?

2626
02:23:11,988 --> 02:23:14,128
No, that was yesterday.

2627
02:23:14,708 --> 02:23:15,308
I didn't see that.

2628
02:23:15,308 --> 02:23:18,908
And it was about optional wars.

2629
02:23:19,068 --> 02:23:24,888
It really came down to us traipsing around the world, attacking countries for no fucking reason.

2630
02:23:25,128 --> 02:23:27,448
Dave Smith, of course, does not like that.

2631
02:23:28,208 --> 02:23:32,868
And D'Souza gave sort of a neocon party line supporting it.

2632
02:23:32,868 --> 02:23:35,088
And, of course, I side with Smith.

2633
02:23:37,168 --> 02:23:44,388
Therefore, I'm so biased that I can't hear the merits of D'Souza's arguments.

2634
02:23:44,388 --> 02:23:48,008
Although I thought he did an okay job of defending the indefensible.

2635
02:23:50,348 --> 02:23:55,228
I mean, I think when it comes to Venezuela, who knows?

2636
02:23:55,348 --> 02:23:57,068
It's still nothing's been determined.

2637
02:23:57,428 --> 02:23:58,168
That's the key.

2638
02:23:58,268 --> 02:23:58,568
Who knows?

2639
02:23:58,808 --> 02:24:06,448
I think I saw this week that he doesn't want the military there, but he's down to have private defense contractors go and make sure that everything's okay on the ground.

2640
02:24:06,608 --> 02:24:08,168
What happens when they get caught?

2641
02:24:09,308 --> 02:24:14,088
What happens when someone grabs up a handful of them and all of a sudden we've got a hostage crisis?

2642
02:24:14,088 --> 02:24:16,848
Yeah, that's the big question.

2643
02:24:17,048 --> 02:24:20,308
But, I mean, at least as it stands right now,

2644
02:24:20,388 --> 02:24:23,568
nothing's escalated or devolved into complete chaos down there.

2645
02:24:23,588 --> 02:24:25,948
So is it about the oil? Because I'm not convinced.

2646
02:24:29,188 --> 02:24:32,028
No. Did you read that UAV?

2647
02:24:33,888 --> 02:24:34,668
Maybe, I don't know.

2648
02:24:34,668 --> 02:24:36,868
So there's a theory that, like, I mean, the waterway is there.

2649
02:24:37,768 --> 02:24:39,928
I think it's just to box out China and Russia.

2650
02:24:40,708 --> 02:24:42,288
That is certainly part of it.

2651
02:24:42,288 --> 02:24:46,428
I think it's also, someone did a great world map.

2652
02:24:46,528 --> 02:24:52,928
They showed a world map and they circled the Western Hemisphere with basically a digital crayon and said Trump.

2653
02:24:53,448 --> 02:24:55,908
And then they circled a big chunk of the northern rest.

2654
02:24:56,008 --> 02:24:56,868
They said Putin.

2655
02:24:57,228 --> 02:24:59,148
Then they circled a chunk of the G.

2656
02:25:02,048 --> 02:25:08,828
Trump is doing a great job if this multipolar world is unavoidable.

2657
02:25:09,828 --> 02:25:12,088
He's basically saying, let's pull in the horns.

2658
02:25:12,088 --> 02:25:14,708
Let's move back

2659
02:25:14,708 --> 02:25:16,408
My wife's pissed off at Greenland

2660
02:25:16,408 --> 02:25:19,068
And I said, well, you know, Empire's grab shit

2661
02:25:19,068 --> 02:25:21,108
Yeah, well, we were talking about it

2662
02:25:21,108 --> 02:25:22,908
On a podcast

2663
02:25:22,908 --> 02:25:24,048
My weekly podcast

2664
02:25:24,048 --> 02:25:25,988
With my co-host Matt Odell yesterday

2665
02:25:25,988 --> 02:25:28,028
If you go to the game of Risk, Greenland and Venezuela

2666
02:25:28,028 --> 02:25:29,908
Are two of the most valuable

2667
02:25:29,908 --> 02:25:32,648
Pieces of land to lock down

2668
02:25:32,648 --> 02:25:34,968
I always like to take North America

2669
02:25:34,968 --> 02:25:35,628
Yeah

2670
02:25:35,628 --> 02:25:38,268
You never go to Malaysia

2671
02:25:38,268 --> 02:25:40,788
Malaysia's a great place to hang out

2672
02:25:40,788 --> 02:25:41,888
But you won't win the game

2673
02:25:42,088 --> 02:26:07,766
Yeah And no one wins in Europe I used that metaphor by the way You know no one wins in Europe Right Europe looks to me like it just going to be a perpetual state of disaster I think I mean And that why I think Trump beginning to focus I mean if we if it not a grand stage and there is some sort of logic behind everything like I for packing it into the Western Hemisphere

2674
02:26:07,766 --> 02:26:11,666
Europe. Exactly. Exactly. So if it's a Western

2675
02:26:11,666 --> 02:26:15,566
Hemisphere thing, then take Greenland, take Venezuela. I don't have a

2676
02:26:15,566 --> 02:26:16,946
problem with that model.

2677
02:26:19,506 --> 02:26:22,706
Even Dave Smith aside, I say, okay, look, we're just

2678
02:26:22,706 --> 02:26:26,986
doing a little ham-fisted, but we're saying the Western Hemisphere is hands-off.

2679
02:26:28,426 --> 02:26:29,326
That's my hope.

2680
02:26:30,526 --> 02:26:35,726
The cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs. The cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs.

2681
02:26:35,726 --> 02:26:38,526
Now the UAV article

2682
02:26:38,526 --> 02:26:40,406
I forget who wrote it, it was on Medium

2683
02:26:40,406 --> 02:26:42,046
a few weeks ago, essentially

2684
02:26:42,046 --> 02:26:45,126
particularly in the water

2685
02:26:45,126 --> 02:26:47,006
right to the north of Venezuela

2686
02:26:47,006 --> 02:26:50,526
if you have a Cuban missile

2687
02:26:50,526 --> 02:26:52,886
like crisis, that's a great

2688
02:26:52,886 --> 02:26:53,986
spot to launch UAV

2689
02:26:53,986 --> 02:26:56,866
Why haven't we let Cuba back into our

2690
02:26:56,866 --> 02:26:57,226
orbit?

2691
02:26:59,386 --> 02:27:00,866
It seems to me it would have been real

2692
02:27:00,866 --> 02:27:02,786
easy to just say, look, you guys

2693
02:27:02,786 --> 02:27:03,766
are dying down here

2694
02:27:03,766 --> 02:27:08,586
we won't bully you just just let's let's make up and move on

2695
02:27:08,586 --> 02:27:12,766
why don't we do that because they're still communists i don't know i don't know

2696
02:27:12,766 --> 02:27:14,706
it just seems like an obvious thing to do

2697
02:27:14,706 --> 02:27:19,146
well that was like another theory that this midora thing was a

2698
02:27:19,146 --> 02:27:23,486
shot across the bow of cuba yeah i've heard that story too

2699
02:27:23,486 --> 02:27:29,446
we're all just getting narratives yeah if we had the answer key we'd probably

2700
02:27:29,446 --> 02:27:32,666
you know the famous i actually mentioned this quote to tucker

2701
02:27:32,666 --> 02:27:34,346
and he went wild.

2702
02:27:34,886 --> 02:27:36,866
I mentioned the quote from Daniel Ellsberg

2703
02:27:36,866 --> 02:27:38,186
where he's talking to Kissinger

2704
02:27:38,186 --> 02:27:42,506
and Kissinger is about to get top security clearance,

2705
02:27:42,626 --> 02:27:43,606
which Ellsberg had.

2706
02:27:44,306 --> 02:27:46,806
And he says, Henry, when you get the clearance,

2707
02:27:47,126 --> 02:27:50,146
you are going to be shocked at what you see.

2708
02:27:50,286 --> 02:27:51,646
And then you're going to be elated.

2709
02:27:51,726 --> 02:27:53,426
And then you're going to be at some cocktail party

2710
02:27:53,426 --> 02:27:56,106
talking to some three-star general yak in your ear off.

2711
02:27:56,166 --> 02:27:56,746
And you're going to realize

2712
02:27:56,746 --> 02:27:58,226
he doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about

2713
02:27:58,226 --> 02:27:59,346
because he doesn't have it.

2714
02:28:00,366 --> 02:28:02,526
And then he says, you're going to stop listening to people

2715
02:28:02,526 --> 02:28:03,886
and you're going to become a moron.

2716
02:28:04,446 --> 02:28:07,966
And so Tucker's staff is standing there listening to this conversation we're having,

2717
02:28:08,126 --> 02:28:10,226
which included satanic cults and shit.

2718
02:28:10,346 --> 02:28:12,046
I mean, it was a ridiculous conversation.

2719
02:28:12,726 --> 02:28:15,646
And they're riveted, and Tucker starts going through his phone,

2720
02:28:15,646 --> 02:28:19,526
and he reads the whole damn quote from Ellsberg.

2721
02:28:19,666 --> 02:28:22,126
That quote obviously stuck with him like crazy.

2722
02:28:22,966 --> 02:28:23,946
And he just reads it.

2723
02:28:24,046 --> 02:28:26,826
He's just so – that's just an amazing quote.

2724
02:28:27,686 --> 02:28:31,126
And so I found him to be very endearing.

2725
02:28:31,126 --> 02:28:32,686
he was

2726
02:28:32,686 --> 02:28:35,766
I'm a big Tucker fan now

2727
02:28:35,766 --> 02:28:36,606
and you know

2728
02:28:36,606 --> 02:28:38,426
one of the smartest moves he made

2729
02:28:38,426 --> 02:28:39,646
had nothing with me

2730
02:28:39,646 --> 02:28:42,106
Anna Kasparian

2731
02:28:42,106 --> 02:28:44,966
he brings her on the show

2732
02:28:44,966 --> 02:28:47,086
and she's his best buddy now

2733
02:28:47,086 --> 02:28:49,806
she has taken

2734
02:28:49,806 --> 02:28:51,086
Tucker by

2735
02:28:51,086 --> 02:28:52,886
showcasing

2736
02:28:52,886 --> 02:28:55,346
the left

2737
02:28:55,346 --> 02:28:57,726
who have a prayer of having a brain

2738
02:28:57,726 --> 02:28:59,506
he's had a sink on too

2739
02:28:59,506 --> 02:28:59,906
I believe

2740
02:28:59,906 --> 02:29:02,106
He has? I didn't know that

2741
02:29:02,106 --> 02:29:03,906
But all of a sudden

2742
02:29:03,906 --> 02:29:05,586
They might not like everything he says

2743
02:29:05,586 --> 02:29:07,706
But it's not like I hate Tucker time anymore

2744
02:29:07,706 --> 02:29:08,666
No

2745
02:29:08,666 --> 02:29:11,226
And they realize that they have a

2746
02:29:11,226 --> 02:29:13,406
Huge common interest

2747
02:29:13,406 --> 02:29:14,586
With Tucker

2748
02:29:14,586 --> 02:29:18,046
And so Tucker formed an alliance

2749
02:29:18,046 --> 02:29:18,746
With Anna

2750
02:29:18,746 --> 02:29:21,306
I think the whole Young Turks crew

2751
02:29:21,306 --> 02:29:23,866
He had Sank on it was after the Charlie Kirk stuff

2752
02:29:23,866 --> 02:29:24,726
They were talking about Charlie

2753
02:29:24,726 --> 02:29:26,866
I love watching the Young Turks

2754
02:29:26,866 --> 02:29:27,766
I used to hate them

2755
02:29:27,766 --> 02:29:29,626
I love watching them

2756
02:29:29,626 --> 02:29:37,486
I do like the schadenfreude of the 2016 post-election sort of meltdown as they realized.

2757
02:29:37,486 --> 02:29:38,166
Oh, that's funny.

2758
02:29:38,346 --> 02:29:39,066
That was funny.

2759
02:29:39,166 --> 02:29:39,866
That was funny.

2760
02:29:40,006 --> 02:29:40,606
That was funny.

2761
02:29:40,606 --> 02:29:41,506
I got to tell you.

2762
02:29:41,866 --> 02:29:44,446
Watching 2016 play out was hysterical.

2763
02:29:44,746 --> 02:29:44,906
Yeah.

2764
02:29:45,286 --> 02:29:49,486
Well, to your point about Tucker and the Young Turks people, I think you have the horseshoe

2765
02:29:49,486 --> 02:29:51,126
theory of populism coming around.

2766
02:29:51,506 --> 02:29:52,746
People are starting to realize like, hey.

2767
02:29:52,746 --> 02:29:55,606
It's like libertarianism meets from the left and the right and the middle.

2768
02:29:55,606 --> 02:29:55,806
Yeah.

2769
02:29:55,806 --> 02:29:59,146
And they're saying, wait a second, there's all this fraud, waste, and abuse.

2770
02:29:59,386 --> 02:30:01,246
We're in all these forever wars.

2771
02:30:01,446 --> 02:30:02,706
We're actually on the same side.

2772
02:30:02,806 --> 02:30:07,846
We may have some differences on some policies, but I think –

2773
02:30:07,846 --> 02:30:09,986
And Tucker hates the right as much as the left, though.

2774
02:30:10,906 --> 02:30:13,726
I mean the right is toothless, at least the –

2775
02:30:13,726 --> 02:30:15,786
Well, toothless or bad.

2776
02:30:15,926 --> 02:30:16,166
Yeah.

2777
02:30:17,266 --> 02:30:20,886
You know, APEC has a grip on both sides.

2778
02:30:20,886 --> 02:30:24,186
So I'm still trying to figure out –

2779
02:30:24,186 --> 02:30:28,946
One thing that makes Tucker so dangerous is his shtick is getting better every passing day.

2780
02:30:29,666 --> 02:30:31,586
So it starts out sort of raw.

2781
02:30:31,806 --> 02:30:37,046
And now when you listen to him give a 10-minute talk, you go, I can't argue with a single thing he just said.

2782
02:30:37,226 --> 02:30:38,566
He mastered it.

2783
02:30:38,646 --> 02:30:40,986
Particularly on Israel, he had that 40-minute monologue.

2784
02:30:41,906 --> 02:30:42,246
Right.

2785
02:30:42,746 --> 02:30:43,846
That was very well-known.

2786
02:30:43,846 --> 02:30:46,966
His monologue, you'd be hard-pressed to say, no, that's not right.

2787
02:30:47,066 --> 02:30:51,006
You'd be really hard-pressed to locate something that's wrong.

2788
02:30:51,006 --> 02:30:54,406
He occasionally says they're an irrelevant country and stuff like that.

2789
02:30:54,466 --> 02:30:55,866
Okay, jump on that if you want.

2790
02:30:56,146 --> 02:31:00,786
But I'm not sure why he's picking these fights.

2791
02:31:00,926 --> 02:31:10,746
It could be he's reached that stage in his life where he just feels that somehow legacy is more important, that he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history.

2792
02:31:11,686 --> 02:31:19,326
That, and I mean I think there's a demand for this type of sort of frank commentary.

2793
02:31:19,326 --> 02:31:21,646
But I don't think he's grifting it, though.

2794
02:31:21,726 --> 02:31:24,206
I think it's really coming from the heart on him.

2795
02:31:24,466 --> 02:31:25,766
I think the overwritten window shifted.

2796
02:31:27,106 --> 02:31:29,966
I think part of the reason it has shifted.

2797
02:31:30,586 --> 02:31:40,346
And I think there's – I mean it's shifted wide open now to the point where I think there's plenty of room for people to explore these topics earnestly.

2798
02:31:41,046 --> 02:31:42,166
Especially, I mean, the Zoomers.

2799
02:31:42,226 --> 02:31:47,266
If you talk to the Zoomers, they are not happy right now.

2800
02:31:47,266 --> 02:31:48,666
They're not.

2801
02:31:49,326 --> 02:31:54,106
Not at all. You go on a college campus, you can't find a pro-Israel crowd that's not wearing a yarmulke.

2802
02:31:58,046 --> 02:32:02,426
And so, but there's also not anti-Semitism like they say, too.

2803
02:32:02,666 --> 02:32:08,606
Best I can, I've asked colleagues, are you aware of something that you'd really call serious anti-Semitism?

2804
02:32:09,186 --> 02:32:13,506
Besides, supporting Palestine isn't anti-Semitic.

2805
02:32:14,266 --> 02:32:16,326
You name a government, I'll oppose it.

2806
02:32:16,686 --> 02:32:18,826
You give any government, I'll oppose it, right?

2807
02:32:19,326 --> 02:32:23,666
And so – but can you name any – I've asked Kyle.

2808
02:32:23,766 --> 02:32:32,206
Can you name any real anti-Semitic things where some kids just walk into class because he's wearing a yarmulke, he gets a crap kicked off or something or whatever gets harassed badly and no one can?

2809
02:32:34,466 --> 02:32:35,966
No, kids don't want to do this.

2810
02:32:35,986 --> 02:32:37,586
They were raised not to do this.

2811
02:32:37,826 --> 02:32:41,006
This generation has been raised to embrace everything.

2812
02:32:42,246 --> 02:32:48,386
Yeah, and that's like the weird thing about the whole Israel comment is everything gets conflated to anti-Semitism.

2813
02:32:48,386 --> 02:32:54,706
I was like, no, this state in the Middle East has a lot of influence on our politicians.

2814
02:32:54,946 --> 02:32:57,206
I just had some questions.

2815
02:32:57,386 --> 02:33:03,286
I had a two-hour chat about two weeks ago with a guy who has a Nobel Prize, who's Jewish,

2816
02:33:03,746 --> 02:33:08,546
who spent two years in an attic during World War II, hiding.

2817
02:33:09,826 --> 02:33:11,866
And it was an amazing discussion.

2818
02:33:12,526 --> 02:33:13,406
It was just amazing.

2819
02:33:13,646 --> 02:33:16,326
Well, the question I asked, I said, okay, here's a question I have for you.

2820
02:33:16,326 --> 02:33:19,646
how do you raise a Jewish child?

2821
02:33:20,086 --> 02:33:21,546
And I said, the question is,

2822
02:33:22,086 --> 02:33:26,026
you want him to be aware of the past

2823
02:33:26,026 --> 02:33:28,346
because it illustrates risk

2824
02:33:28,346 --> 02:33:30,946
and illustrates persecution.

2825
02:33:31,546 --> 02:33:32,826
While at the same time,

2826
02:33:33,006 --> 02:33:36,066
if I raise kids and I said,

2827
02:33:36,146 --> 02:33:37,106
look, statistically,

2828
02:33:37,886 --> 02:33:39,426
black guys are more likely to kill you

2829
02:33:39,426 --> 02:33:40,146
than white guys.

2830
02:33:40,806 --> 02:33:41,446
Statistically.

2831
02:33:42,646 --> 02:33:44,806
I would raise a bunch of racists.

2832
02:33:46,326 --> 02:33:49,866
So how do you do it? He says it's an unbelievably fine line.

2833
02:33:50,386 --> 02:33:58,866
But you you if if you're Jewish and you raise your kids under the idea that you will always be persecuted.

2834
02:34:00,246 --> 02:34:03,926
You're not I don't think you're doing them any favors. I'm not Jewish. I don't know.

2835
02:34:04,926 --> 02:34:10,466
But it seems like you're you're putting a yoke on him. You're dumping this huge guilt on him.

2836
02:34:10,466 --> 02:34:13,906
I don't think it's constructive

2837
02:34:13,906 --> 02:34:16,226
I thought we were beating the race problem

2838
02:34:16,226 --> 02:34:17,466
until Obama got in there

2839
02:34:17,466 --> 02:34:19,266
and it became a weaponized

2840
02:34:19,266 --> 02:34:21,006
political card

2841
02:34:21,006 --> 02:34:24,086
Yeah

2842
02:34:24,086 --> 02:34:27,606
The left did a bad job at that

2843
02:34:27,606 --> 02:34:29,766
I don't think the right is as guilty

2844
02:34:29,766 --> 02:34:31,746
What has the right done

2845
02:34:31,746 --> 02:34:33,326
that represents that sort of thing?

2846
02:34:33,486 --> 02:34:35,106
Who have we demonized?

2847
02:34:35,846 --> 02:34:37,646
What weaponized

2848
02:34:37,646 --> 02:34:39,526
social movement or something have we done

2849
02:34:39,526 --> 02:34:44,166
that besides illegal aliens, but they are illegal.

2850
02:34:44,366 --> 02:34:45,046
Let's start with that.

2851
02:34:45,506 --> 02:34:46,446
They are illegal.

2852
02:34:47,006 --> 02:34:49,606
The left weaponized maleness.

2853
02:34:50,006 --> 02:34:52,866
They weaponized political correctness.

2854
02:34:52,866 --> 02:34:55,766
They weaponized anti-Semitism.

2855
02:34:56,066 --> 02:34:56,966
I'm not sure that's left.

2856
02:34:57,106 --> 02:34:57,946
That might be the right.

2857
02:34:58,446 --> 02:34:59,146
I'm trying to think.

2858
02:34:59,706 --> 02:34:59,946
Maybe.

2859
02:35:02,206 --> 02:35:03,946
We're not white supremacists.

2860
02:35:04,586 --> 02:35:06,086
No, certainly not.

2861
02:35:06,086 --> 02:35:10,426
I'm just for what is the right

2862
02:35:10,426 --> 02:35:12,566
What have we done

2863
02:35:12,566 --> 02:35:14,926
Did you say yeah

2864
02:35:14,926 --> 02:35:16,466
The left has a good point on that

2865
02:35:16,466 --> 02:35:18,906
I mean to some extent

2866
02:35:18,906 --> 02:35:20,746
Like the corporate greed

2867
02:35:20,746 --> 02:35:22,606
I do think it exists

2868
02:35:22,606 --> 02:35:24,546
Are you sure that's right wing

2869
02:35:24,546 --> 02:35:26,786
That's the democratic party

2870
02:35:26,786 --> 02:35:28,006
Or excuse me

2871
02:35:28,006 --> 02:35:28,766
I know

2872
02:35:28,766 --> 02:35:31,606
The democrats push on corporate greed

2873
02:35:31,606 --> 02:35:34,586
The republicans will say no free market's best

2874
02:35:34,586 --> 02:35:35,266
Like corporations

2875
02:35:35,266 --> 02:35:40,386
do the thing. It's like, well, we don't actually have free markets because we don't have...

2876
02:35:40,386 --> 02:35:43,366
I've got another book for you. Roushir Sharma's

2877
02:35:43,366 --> 02:35:46,926
Something Like What Happened to Capitalism. It's not a screed,

2878
02:35:47,526 --> 02:35:51,546
but it talks about... There's two themes, and I've been humping this book a lot.

2879
02:35:51,646 --> 02:35:55,186
He should be seeing sales improvements. Two themes. One is

2880
02:35:55,186 --> 02:35:58,846
we flood the world with capital. Flood it.

2881
02:35:59,466 --> 02:36:03,246
And then we try to contain the consequences with regulations,

2882
02:36:03,246 --> 02:36:04,466
and it doesn't work.

2883
02:36:05,266 --> 02:36:09,086
he says, you can't flood the world with capital like this.

2884
02:36:09,706 --> 02:36:10,546
It'll just go bad.

2885
02:36:10,606 --> 02:36:12,346
It'll find places to go.

2886
02:36:12,446 --> 02:36:13,046
It shouldn't go.

2887
02:36:13,366 --> 02:36:17,406
Then he says, also, he says, what I describe, not his words, my words,

2888
02:36:17,406 --> 02:36:22,486
is bad interventions with good intentions.

2889
02:36:23,306 --> 02:36:26,106
And he goes, and he says, so because of this, they do this.

2890
02:36:26,386 --> 02:36:27,506
Here's what happens.

2891
02:36:29,026 --> 02:36:32,006
And it's not what he screeds like, you know, you make more,

2892
02:36:32,006 --> 02:36:39,026
you get more taxes if you have less a lower lower tax pay you know yeah it's not this right wing

2893
02:36:39,026 --> 02:36:43,726
leave us alone and let us do whatever we want it's not that he's talking about the absurdity

2894
02:36:43,726 --> 02:36:48,206
of the current capital system in a totally rational way yeah and that's the point i was

2895
02:36:48,206 --> 02:36:53,206
trying to make like this whole it's like oh we're capitalism it's like pretending like we actually

2896
02:36:53,206 --> 02:36:59,066
live in a truly capitalist or free market society we never have but yeah but it's weirder now than

2897
02:36:59,066 --> 02:37:02,946
it used to be. My dad, one time I asked him about national health care.

2898
02:37:04,866 --> 02:37:07,186
Because we kind of have it, but it's

2899
02:37:07,186 --> 02:37:10,746
ad hoc. So if you're broke and you go to the ER, they're going to treat you.

2900
02:37:12,926 --> 02:37:15,186
If you're sick, that's the only place you can go.

2901
02:37:15,286 --> 02:37:18,986
So it's an expensive way to treat you. And he said, well, you know,

2902
02:37:19,026 --> 02:37:23,026
it makes sense in theory that he says my experience is that every time he

2903
02:37:23,026 --> 02:37:26,566
asks the government to spend money for you, they do a horrible job.

2904
02:37:26,566 --> 02:37:29,766
yeah I mean we're fighting this out with the daycare

2905
02:37:29,766 --> 02:37:32,886
with the daycare with NGOs

2906
02:37:32,886 --> 02:37:35,426
I bet there's not an NGO out there that's worth a damn

2907
02:37:35,426 --> 02:37:37,626
no I mean

2908
02:37:37,626 --> 02:37:41,106
that's I mean you're talking we just need

2909
02:37:41,106 --> 02:37:44,766
hopefully all this is a catalyst for dramatically shrinking

2910
02:37:44,766 --> 02:37:47,366
the budget but I find that very hard to believe

2911
02:37:47,366 --> 02:37:50,786
I don't think we can but I think we're going to have to

2912
02:37:50,786 --> 02:37:53,786
hit a crisis of some kind that's going to blow the circuits

2913
02:37:53,786 --> 02:37:54,266
office.

2914
02:37:55,526 --> 02:37:57,606
I've had a couple guests in the last couple months.

2915
02:37:58,946 --> 02:37:59,826
Susan Kikinda,

2916
02:38:00,086 --> 02:38:00,826
a couple others.

2917
02:38:02,506 --> 02:38:03,626
Ask them, what's your big prediction

2918
02:38:03,626 --> 02:38:05,286
for 2026 Civil War?

2919
02:38:05,466 --> 02:38:07,766
Do you think Civil War is on the...

2920
02:38:07,766 --> 02:38:09,906
We're kind of in one a little bit already.

2921
02:38:10,666 --> 02:38:10,806
Yeah.

2922
02:38:12,966 --> 02:38:14,046
I want to pull this up.

2923
02:38:14,106 --> 02:38:15,266
It's just like the absurdity

2924
02:38:15,266 --> 02:38:17,786
of...

2925
02:38:18,866 --> 02:38:19,646
I mean, Nick Shirley came out

2926
02:38:19,646 --> 02:38:20,286
with another video.

2927
02:38:21,566 --> 02:38:23,646
How can anybody look at this?

2928
02:38:23,786 --> 02:38:26,466
and think these guys are actually running a daycare center.

2929
02:38:27,406 --> 02:38:27,846
No.

2930
02:38:28,466 --> 02:38:29,386
Put it this way.

2931
02:38:29,446 --> 02:38:31,586
If they sent you and I over to Germany and said,

2932
02:38:31,686 --> 02:38:34,346
rip off the German government, would you know where to start?

2933
02:38:35,886 --> 02:38:38,166
The cultural barrier would be enormous.

2934
02:38:39,206 --> 02:38:39,646
Enormous.

2935
02:38:41,026 --> 02:38:42,686
So these guys are just front men.

2936
02:38:42,746 --> 02:38:43,506
These are bag men.

2937
02:38:44,046 --> 02:38:46,346
This is like the 15-year-old kid on the street corner

2938
02:38:46,346 --> 02:38:48,166
is not running the drug trade either.

2939
02:38:50,946 --> 02:38:52,346
Yeah, and who are they bag men for?

2940
02:38:52,346 --> 02:38:56,826
By the way, there's another sneaky little detail out there that I've been watching

2941
02:38:56,826 --> 02:39:00,706
I read somewhere that, you know the famous stats

2942
02:39:00,706 --> 02:39:04,006
That there's a sort of a non-statistical repeat of lotto winners

2943
02:39:04,006 --> 02:39:08,206
There are a number of people who've run the lotto several times

2944
02:39:08,206 --> 02:39:11,546
And then one day I read one where they said it was rigged

2945
02:39:11,546 --> 02:39:16,286
And I'm going, wait a minute, let me see if I got this right

2946
02:39:16,286 --> 02:39:19,446
Billions of dollars are being won in the lotto

2947
02:39:19,446 --> 02:39:21,246
And someone has found a way to rig it

2948
02:39:22,346 --> 02:39:24,586
And I'm thinking, oh, my God.

2949
02:39:24,726 --> 02:39:39,306
So Joe Sixpack, who has no chance of getting off their butts because they're being beaten down so much, buys a ticket to give them a finitely minuscule chance of busting into the open.

2950
02:39:40,326 --> 02:39:41,366
And it's rigged.

2951
02:39:43,186 --> 02:39:46,266
So then you go, and this kind of makes a little bit of sense.

2952
02:39:46,266 --> 02:39:49,506
and then I read an article about

2953
02:39:49,506 --> 02:39:52,666
one by Zorro Trust

2954
02:39:52,666 --> 02:39:56,366
I go, what's Zorro Trust?

2955
02:39:57,126 --> 02:39:58,606
It's an Epstein company

2956
02:39:58,606 --> 02:40:02,726
so the question is, is it possible?

2957
02:40:02,826 --> 02:40:03,626
you know how they're audited?

2958
02:40:04,906 --> 02:40:08,986
well you say to the auditor, we're going to kill your family if you don't sign off

2959
02:40:08,986 --> 02:40:11,526
you don't have to

2960
02:40:11,526 --> 02:40:14,806
get the guy compromised with a 5 year old

2961
02:40:14,806 --> 02:40:16,686
You just say, look, we're going to off your family.

2962
02:40:16,886 --> 02:40:17,866
You see Charlie Kirk?

2963
02:40:17,966 --> 02:40:18,626
I did that.

2964
02:40:20,626 --> 02:40:24,046
And the guy will sign off on anything.

2965
02:40:24,946 --> 02:40:26,126
You'd be out of your mind.

2966
02:40:26,266 --> 02:40:27,086
I say, take it.

2967
02:40:27,626 --> 02:40:27,766
Yeah.

2968
02:40:28,126 --> 02:40:29,106
I don't want to end up with.

2969
02:40:29,226 --> 02:40:30,086
I don't want to die.

2970
02:40:30,166 --> 02:40:31,186
I don't want to swim with the fishes.

2971
02:40:31,446 --> 02:40:33,166
I don't want to end up in Lake Mead in a barrel.

2972
02:40:34,366 --> 02:40:41,246
And all of a sudden I realized, what if Joe Sixpack discovered they didn't even have a chance to win the lotto?

2973
02:40:41,406 --> 02:40:42,766
It's all a humiliation ritual.

2974
02:40:42,766 --> 02:40:44,026
make the taxes

2975
02:40:44,026 --> 02:40:45,906
there is that sense

2976
02:40:45,906 --> 02:40:48,966
the two questions is did Israel

2977
02:40:48,966 --> 02:40:49,966
overestimate

2978
02:40:49,966 --> 02:40:52,406
did Israel misplay their hand

2979
02:40:52,406 --> 02:40:54,646
and did the COVID vaccine guys

2980
02:40:54,646 --> 02:40:55,846
misplay their hand

2981
02:40:55,846 --> 02:40:58,606
and it depends on what you perceive

2982
02:40:58,606 --> 02:40:59,806
their goal was

2983
02:40:59,806 --> 02:41:04,886
Israel you can say look they squeegee

2984
02:41:04,886 --> 02:41:06,626
Gaza Strip free of people

2985
02:41:06,626 --> 02:41:08,886
10 years from now we've forgotten how it

2986
02:41:08,886 --> 02:41:10,766
happened and they've got the

2987
02:41:10,766 --> 02:41:11,306
strip

2988
02:41:12,766 --> 02:41:13,606
So they win.

2989
02:41:15,546 --> 02:41:17,946
COVID, it's a little trickier.

2990
02:41:18,026 --> 02:41:21,206
You ask, did they want to test their ability to brainwash us?

2991
02:41:21,326 --> 02:41:25,106
Did they want to call the population with a death shot?

2992
02:41:26,566 --> 02:41:28,866
There's a million potential reasons for that.

2993
02:41:29,066 --> 02:41:30,426
I don't think it's the money.

2994
02:41:31,006 --> 02:41:32,946
Actually, if you look at Pfizer's share price,

2995
02:41:33,006 --> 02:41:34,366
you look at their dividends and stuff,

2996
02:41:34,986 --> 02:41:37,106
there's no evidence Pfizer made a ton of money.

2997
02:41:39,626 --> 02:41:40,986
If they did, where'd it go?

2998
02:41:42,766 --> 02:41:51,266
Was it – well, I mean the other theory is like it was you needed an excuse to stimulate the economy or the banking system.

2999
02:41:51,266 --> 02:41:58,446
Well, so that gets to the theory that I happened to just read what I wrote from a number of years ago just yesterday.

3000
02:42:00,886 --> 02:42:05,726
The market – the banking system was going through convulsions in late 19.

3001
02:42:06,246 --> 02:42:08,426
Yeah, September 2019, the repo spasms.

3002
02:42:08,886 --> 02:42:09,826
The repo spasms.

3003
02:42:09,906 --> 02:42:12,026
Then BlackRock said you're going to have to go direct.

3004
02:42:12,026 --> 02:42:14,046
and lo and behold, three months later, they're going direct.

3005
02:42:15,506 --> 02:42:19,946
And one of the theories is that we put the global economy

3006
02:42:19,946 --> 02:42:25,726
into an induced coma in a sort of a medical-like way

3007
02:42:25,726 --> 02:42:28,006
to stabilize the patient, right?

3008
02:42:28,626 --> 02:42:31,606
Drop 10 trillion, 8 trillion, whatever the number is,

3009
02:42:31,646 --> 02:42:35,646
and then let it out of the coma slowly and see if it's okay.

3010
02:42:35,886 --> 02:42:37,326
Fix the banking system.

3011
02:42:37,326 --> 02:42:38,386
and

3012
02:42:38,386 --> 02:42:42,946
I knew I'd gotten that from somewhere

3013
02:42:42,946 --> 02:42:44,946
it turns out there was a Marxist economist

3014
02:42:44,946 --> 02:42:46,346
who came up with that theory

3015
02:42:46,346 --> 02:42:47,846
got a biggie from Italy

3016
02:42:47,846 --> 02:42:49,946
who said he thinks that maybe

3017
02:42:49,946 --> 02:42:53,206
they did the induced coma model

3018
02:42:53,206 --> 02:42:54,686
to stabilize the banking system

3019
02:42:54,686 --> 02:42:56,606
because then after that

3020
02:42:56,606 --> 02:42:59,126
the banking system stops bashing

3021
02:42:59,126 --> 02:43:00,646
until 23

3022
02:43:00,646 --> 02:43:02,186
right

3023
02:43:02,186 --> 02:43:04,946
and I think the interventions

3024
02:43:04,946 --> 02:43:06,106
are getting less effective

3025
02:43:06,106 --> 02:43:08,146
I think at some point they're just going to fail.

3026
02:43:08,906 --> 02:43:09,946
They're just not going.

3027
02:43:10,406 --> 02:43:18,406
And if they start intervening now and all of a sudden the inflation rate soars undeniably, are they going to be able to just say, fuck you, we're doing it?

3028
02:43:20,726 --> 02:43:21,946
I'm not sure they can.

3029
02:43:22,606 --> 02:43:25,926
I'm not sure they let their credibility get beat up that badly.

3030
02:43:27,066 --> 02:43:29,666
Well, luckily, I mean, inflation seems relatively tamed right now.

3031
02:43:30,206 --> 02:43:30,706
You sure?

3032
02:43:31,706 --> 02:43:33,106
I mean, gas prices are really low.

3033
02:43:33,626 --> 02:43:34,106
Yeah.

3034
02:43:34,366 --> 02:43:34,806
Okay.

3035
02:43:34,806 --> 02:43:38,686
So let's say gas is the thing that they focus on, right?

3036
02:43:38,746 --> 02:43:40,166
You're anchoring on gas.

3037
02:43:42,126 --> 02:43:47,226
If I were to measure inflation, I'd get 100 guys who run 100 businesses and say,

3038
02:43:47,466 --> 02:43:50,466
what's your year-over-year cost of labor and inputs?

3039
02:43:52,006 --> 02:43:54,566
How much more does it cost to run that 7-Eleven?

3040
02:43:54,666 --> 02:43:57,066
How much more does that plumbing company cost to run?

3041
02:43:57,446 --> 02:43:57,946
It's higher.

3042
02:43:58,746 --> 02:43:59,706
It's way higher.

3043
02:43:59,806 --> 02:44:01,286
What's happened to your car insurance?

3044
02:44:01,286 --> 02:44:05,666
What's happened to your home taxes, the taxes on your house?

3045
02:44:07,646 --> 02:44:09,426
I think it's way higher.

3046
02:44:10,826 --> 02:44:12,826
You want to hear an inflationary thing?

3047
02:44:12,946 --> 02:44:15,886
We had a guy who plowed our driveway, and he didn't plow last year,

3048
02:44:15,946 --> 02:44:18,346
but he was charging his 50 bucks when he did plow.

3049
02:44:19,246 --> 02:44:20,806
We could not get a plow guy.

3050
02:44:20,926 --> 02:44:21,926
We share it with the neighbor.

3051
02:44:22,586 --> 02:44:26,806
We ended up having to sign a deal that was minimum $1,000 of plowing,

3052
02:44:26,926 --> 02:44:28,186
whether we used it or not.

3053
02:44:28,186 --> 02:44:31,706
So we went from zero to a thousand in one year.

3054
02:44:32,246 --> 02:44:32,406
Yeah.

3055
02:44:32,966 --> 02:44:34,746
And there's shit like that out there.

3056
02:44:35,146 --> 02:44:37,346
And, you know, some things did come back down.

3057
02:44:37,486 --> 02:44:38,646
Lumber came back down.

3058
02:44:38,806 --> 02:44:46,046
But but I I would find a hundred people who really know their inputs.

3059
02:44:48,626 --> 02:44:57,646
And and just ask them every year what happened and, you know, plumbers, convenience store, restaurant, you know, pick pick pick a hundred diverse.

3060
02:44:58,186 --> 02:45:01,086
Just say what happened to the cost of running your business.

3061
02:45:01,226 --> 02:45:02,646
That would give you a read on inflation.

3062
02:45:03,186 --> 02:45:06,026
The idea of Truflation telling you anything is shit.

3063
02:45:06,506 --> 02:45:10,966
I'm convinced that Truflation is an attempt to monetize the CPI.

3064
02:45:10,966 --> 02:45:17,646
I read an article yesterday claiming that Truflation was coming in lower than the CPI.

3065
02:45:18,666 --> 02:45:20,726
And I go, they're bullshitting us.

3066
02:45:21,586 --> 02:45:23,106
They're just bullshitting us.

3067
02:45:23,806 --> 02:45:26,486
And the Chapwood Index hasn't been updated in quite a while.

3068
02:45:26,506 --> 02:45:27,526
Not at all.

3069
02:45:27,526 --> 02:45:30,506
And I think that was coming in too hot

3070
02:45:30,506 --> 02:45:32,446
You actually did the math

3071
02:45:32,446 --> 02:45:33,906
And said if Chapwood is right

3072
02:45:33,906 --> 02:45:35,886
What has happened to the price of things

3073
02:45:35,886 --> 02:45:37,326
And it doesn't quite add up

3074
02:45:37,326 --> 02:45:39,646
I think Shadow Stats is coming in too hot

3075
02:45:39,646 --> 02:45:41,706
Shadow Stats too

3076
02:45:41,706 --> 02:45:43,066
Yeah

3077
02:45:43,066 --> 02:45:45,286
But it's not

3078
02:45:45,286 --> 02:45:47,006
Two and a half percent

3079
02:45:47,006 --> 02:45:50,426
You wouldn't notice

3080
02:45:50,426 --> 02:45:51,366
Two and a half percent

3081
02:45:51,366 --> 02:45:53,506
You wouldn't say holy fuck

3082
02:45:53,506 --> 02:45:54,966
I can't believe I have to pay that much

3083
02:45:54,966 --> 02:45:57,146
You'd never notice it

3084
02:45:57,526 --> 02:46:03,266
I'm looking at ShadowStats right now.

3085
02:46:03,626 --> 02:46:06,306
No, no, we just got an invoice for some electrical work.

3086
02:46:06,726 --> 02:46:10,566
It came in well below our expectations, but again, this is anecdotal.

3087
02:46:11,226 --> 02:46:14,066
Well, I got a plumber in the Adirondacks on a cabin.

3088
02:46:14,346 --> 02:46:15,486
He's a plumber by training.

3089
02:46:15,646 --> 02:46:16,846
He does electrical carpentry.

3090
02:46:16,946 --> 02:46:18,966
He does maintenance, opens the cabin for us.

3091
02:46:19,026 --> 02:46:21,226
I got him this year, $25 an hour.

3092
02:46:22,466 --> 02:46:22,866
That's.

3093
02:46:22,866 --> 02:46:32,006
The guy, I had to get a car back to Ithaca, long story, but I had to get a car driven back to Ithaca, five hour drive, five and a half hour drive.

3094
02:46:32,786 --> 02:46:33,786
He said, I'll do it for you.

3095
02:46:33,786 --> 02:46:35,366
I do that sort of shit all the time.

3096
02:46:36,206 --> 02:46:37,286
I said, how much?

3097
02:46:37,426 --> 02:46:39,426
So five and a half hours round trip.

3098
02:46:39,426 --> 02:46:39,966
He says, you.

3099
02:46:39,984 --> 02:46:42,364
You pay for the rental to get back?

3100
02:46:42,424 --> 02:46:43,104
I said, of course.

3101
02:46:43,904 --> 02:46:44,644
200 bucks.

3102
02:46:44,784 --> 02:46:46,464
I go, no, dude.

3103
02:46:46,544 --> 02:46:47,384
I'll pay you three.

3104
02:46:48,924 --> 02:46:52,824
There's no way you should charge 200 bucks for a 12-hour round trip.

3105
02:46:54,084 --> 02:46:54,224
Right.

3106
02:46:56,664 --> 02:47:03,144
So there are places where I talked to the guy who checked our cable coming into the cabin.

3107
02:47:03,144 --> 02:47:07,884
And he's like 26 years old.

3108
02:47:07,944 --> 02:47:08,684
He owned a house.

3109
02:47:09,984 --> 02:47:10,764
Get a house.

3110
02:47:11,524 --> 02:47:12,464
I said, how much did you pay for it?

3111
02:47:12,484 --> 02:47:13,404
I said, 148.

3112
02:47:14,204 --> 02:47:14,524
Damn.

3113
02:47:15,564 --> 02:47:21,764
There is cheap real estate out there, but it's in places where most people don't live.

3114
02:47:22,104 --> 02:47:22,384
Yeah.

3115
02:47:23,504 --> 02:47:26,504
And therefore, it's not a big effect on the overall inflation rate.

3116
02:47:27,784 --> 02:47:37,444
And that's like going back to what we were talking about earlier about boomers in the mortgage rate and the price of the homes and trying to manipulate rates lower to make sure that stays high.

3117
02:47:38,284 --> 02:47:38,764
I mean, this is.

3118
02:47:38,824 --> 02:47:39,884
That's really immoral.

3119
02:47:39,984 --> 02:47:44,704
It is, and it's – I mean this is why I finally talk about Bitcoin.

3120
02:47:45,164 --> 02:47:50,104
People should be saving their money in Bitcoin or gold or silver or whatever, and not their houses.

3121
02:47:50,584 --> 02:47:54,524
I hear the all-in podcast guys banging the table like, we need more supply.

3122
02:47:54,644 --> 02:47:55,424
We need more supply.

3123
02:47:56,104 --> 02:47:57,804
It's like, no, you just need to stop using your house.

3124
02:47:58,144 --> 02:48:00,704
Oh, Powell said we need to build more houses.

3125
02:48:00,844 --> 02:48:02,464
And I go, so let me see if I got this right.

3126
02:48:02,864 --> 02:48:04,744
You build more houses, so people move in.

3127
02:48:04,884 --> 02:48:06,384
Were they living on the street?

3128
02:48:07,484 --> 02:48:07,804
Right.

3129
02:48:07,804 --> 02:48:08,804
The answer is no.

3130
02:48:08,804 --> 02:48:13,224
and therefore now we'll have a commercial real estate crisis, correct?

3131
02:48:14,384 --> 02:48:16,604
Because there's already housing for these people.

3132
02:48:17,924 --> 02:48:20,164
I mean, just look at Austin, Florida,

3133
02:48:20,724 --> 02:48:22,664
because I just lived in Austin for four years.

3134
02:48:22,784 --> 02:48:26,204
They expanded supply dramatically.

3135
02:48:26,704 --> 02:48:28,424
Do you think real estate is starting to collapse?

3136
02:48:28,564 --> 02:48:29,764
Melody Wright says yes.

3137
02:48:30,124 --> 02:48:31,544
I'm not sure I can see it.

3138
02:48:32,264 --> 02:48:35,064
I think in certain markets, like where I am, like no.

3139
02:48:35,064 --> 02:48:38,624
Naples, Florida doesn't sound it

3140
02:48:38,624 --> 02:48:39,884
my brother just sold a house

3141
02:48:39,884 --> 02:48:40,924
he didn't have any trouble

3142
02:48:40,924 --> 02:48:44,084
bring it back

3143
02:48:44,084 --> 02:48:44,444
Austin

3144
02:48:44,444 --> 02:48:48,184
the prices are falling dramatically

3145
02:48:48,184 --> 02:48:49,304
particularly for rentals

3146
02:48:49,304 --> 02:48:52,084
because they just built so much supply

3147
02:48:52,084 --> 02:48:54,564
during the COVID era

3148
02:48:54,564 --> 02:48:56,784
where they had Californians

3149
02:48:56,784 --> 02:48:58,124
and people from New York

3150
02:48:58,124 --> 02:48:59,284
like myself moving down there

3151
02:48:59,284 --> 02:49:00,644
but a lot of us went back

3152
02:49:00,644 --> 02:49:02,424
and then they overbuilt

3153
02:49:02,424 --> 02:49:04,924
I've thought about where I'd want to live

3154
02:49:04,924 --> 02:49:06,184
if I didn't live where I lived.

3155
02:49:08,264 --> 02:49:10,244
I haven't come up with a gee whiz.

3156
02:49:10,344 --> 02:49:11,784
That would be really my first choice

3157
02:49:11,784 --> 02:49:12,764
because I could go there.

3158
02:49:13,204 --> 02:49:14,584
There's no reason I can't go there.

3159
02:49:14,924 --> 02:49:16,124
I mean, I could retire today.

3160
02:49:16,564 --> 02:49:17,624
It's been a good year for you, sir.

3161
02:49:18,384 --> 02:49:19,224
It has.

3162
02:49:19,404 --> 02:49:20,284
What a ridiculous...

3163
02:49:20,284 --> 02:49:21,184
It makes me nervous.

3164
02:49:21,344 --> 02:49:21,864
It's so good.

3165
02:49:24,404 --> 02:49:24,804
Yeah.

3166
02:49:25,104 --> 02:49:26,644
Off camera, I'll tell you how good.

3167
02:49:29,424 --> 02:49:33,564
I don't want to get the Gen Zers mad at me

3168
02:49:33,564 --> 02:49:35,364
for being a greedy bull.

3169
02:49:35,364 --> 02:49:36,764
I noticed one thing you said in your letter

3170
02:49:36,764 --> 02:49:38,524
is that you're allocating the treasuries,

3171
02:49:39,224 --> 02:49:41,004
keeping some cash in treasuries.

3172
02:49:41,804 --> 02:49:43,544
Oh, I'm about 50% liquidity.

3173
02:49:44,044 --> 02:49:44,324
Yeah.

3174
02:49:45,164 --> 02:49:49,404
About 50% liquidity, 30%, 30 plus percent metals,

3175
02:49:49,884 --> 02:49:52,564
and maybe even a little more,

3176
02:49:52,664 --> 02:49:55,984
and then just a smattering of equities, normal equities.

3177
02:49:57,324 --> 02:49:59,444
Let me check my notes here.

3178
02:50:00,204 --> 02:50:01,324
What did you say?

3179
02:50:01,324 --> 02:50:07,884
So my risk assets last year, my risk assets, take away cash equivalents.

3180
02:50:08,404 --> 02:50:10,724
Bonds can go up or down, but I don't count them.

3181
02:50:10,764 --> 02:50:12,484
I just say, look, I got 4%.

3182
02:50:12,484 --> 02:50:23,004
And take away my house, which is an expensive house, but it can go up or down, but I don't want to go down.

3183
02:50:23,084 --> 02:50:25,764
So just the risk assets, gold, gold equities, things like that.

3184
02:50:27,524 --> 02:50:29,084
65% last year.

3185
02:50:29,084 --> 02:50:32,844
This is ridiculous.

3186
02:50:32,844 --> 02:50:35,444
Then I saw they did a poll.

3187
02:50:35,444 --> 02:50:39,764
They asked retail investors with over $100,000 in the market,

3188
02:50:39,764 --> 02:50:43,364
what do you expect on an inflation adjusted basis

3189
02:50:43,364 --> 02:50:45,364
sustainably going forward?

3190
02:50:45,364 --> 02:50:48,204
The retail investors said 11.4%.

3191
02:50:49,444 --> 02:50:52,524
And I go, you gotta get medical treatment.

3192
02:50:52,524 --> 02:50:54,664
You've gotta get a CAT scan.

3193
02:50:54,664 --> 02:50:57,944
You've got a tumor the size of a cantaloupe in there.

3194
02:50:57,944 --> 02:51:02,504
And then they asked the pros, and they said, oh, no, no, no, more like 8.4%.

3195
02:51:02,504 --> 02:51:04,544
I go, oh, my God.

3196
02:51:04,964 --> 02:51:10,084
We have never, ever come close to 8% inflation adjusted.

3197
02:51:11,304 --> 02:51:13,724
Never in a year, sure.

3198
02:51:15,004 --> 02:51:17,344
But sustainably, not even close.

3199
02:51:17,344 --> 02:51:21,444
Buffett puts the number to about four without including taxes.

3200
02:51:21,444 --> 02:51:33,604
Well, you had this in the note too. Gold return over 25 years, over 1,200% compared to 700 of the S&P.

3201
02:51:34,024 --> 02:51:37,444
Gold ties Berkshire Hathaway over 27 years.

3202
02:51:37,704 --> 02:51:44,704
Yeah. And if you're looking for inflation-adjusted returns, like outperformance, I think gold's the best.

3203
02:51:44,704 --> 02:51:50,784
Did you see the tables of the MAG-7 and how much they've made? Their revenues?

3204
02:51:51,444 --> 02:52:01,304
Some guy gave me guff about Apple, and I pointed out that Apple's revenues have grown 70% last decade while its market gap grew 680%.

3205
02:52:01,304 --> 02:52:03,824
You can't do that.

3206
02:52:05,404 --> 02:52:08,544
Your market gap has to track revenues, period.

3207
02:52:09,024 --> 02:52:14,504
It doesn't have to in the short term, but it sure as hell has to sustainably.

3208
02:52:15,544 --> 02:52:16,564
I'll pull it up.

3209
02:52:16,564 --> 02:52:17,184
Yeah.

3210
02:52:21,444 --> 02:52:23,564
This is actually a pretty crazy chart.

3211
02:52:28,624 --> 02:52:30,344
But we've been saying this for five years.

3212
02:52:30,404 --> 02:52:31,244
How long can it go on?

3213
02:52:31,244 --> 02:52:33,564
As long as it wants.

3214
02:52:33,904 --> 02:52:41,204
But if you've got two engines on fire and you're at 35,000 feet, you can take it to 45,000.

3215
02:52:41,304 --> 02:52:48,364
But as they say in the flight manuals, you will have enough fuel to get to the crash site.

3216
02:52:48,364 --> 02:52:51,604
Look at those numbers.

3217
02:52:51,804 --> 02:52:52,644
Start on the left.

3218
02:52:52,744 --> 02:52:53,644
There's the revenues.

3219
02:52:54,164 --> 02:52:55,924
370% market cap.

3220
02:52:56,104 --> 02:52:59,184
The reason I use market cap is because that takes care of all the buyback shit.

3221
02:52:59,904 --> 02:53:03,124
That's just the total appreciation of the total value of the company.

3222
02:53:04,204 --> 02:53:05,004
Almost double.

3223
02:53:05,644 --> 02:53:07,744
Amazon is actually pretty good.

3224
02:53:07,864 --> 02:53:09,084
Amazon is really the rock star.

3225
02:53:09,224 --> 02:53:09,764
Look at Apple.

3226
02:53:09,884 --> 02:53:10,784
70% revenue.

3227
02:53:11,444 --> 02:53:15,124
680% market cap gain.

3228
02:53:15,944 --> 02:53:19,944
Microsoft, 160% to 830%.

3229
02:53:19,944 --> 02:53:27,584
Meta, Meta's actually doing okay, but Meta started from a bizarro starting point.

3230
02:53:27,884 --> 02:53:32,044
Look at NVIDIA, 1,200% to 24,000%.

3231
02:53:32,044 --> 02:53:36,804
Tesla, oh, Meta, excuse me, I was not going to Meta.

3232
02:53:37,464 --> 02:53:54,596
I think Meta by the way companies like that I think they get a ton of money straight from the Pentagon I think they not getting it from clicks And then the other funny thing is look at that tweet below I actually did that same analysis for Dell just one day on a whim

3233
02:53:54,896 --> 02:53:56,956
and Michael Dell jumped in on me.

3234
02:54:01,356 --> 02:54:04,476
Look at J.P. Morgan, 180 to 470.

3235
02:54:05,396 --> 02:54:05,636
Yeah.

3236
02:54:06,436 --> 02:54:07,956
This is not sustainable.

3237
02:54:07,956 --> 02:54:11,956
Unless you want to argue that 10 years ago, the markets were dirt cheap and they weren't.

3238
02:54:12,976 --> 02:54:15,876
The only thing that's going to sustain is that they keep printing money, right?

3239
02:54:16,216 --> 02:54:21,556
No, because both of those respond to the printing.

3240
02:54:22,296 --> 02:54:24,296
You can't get out of that mess, right?

3241
02:54:24,576 --> 02:54:29,276
You can't get a K-Shiller PE of 40 compared to a historical norm of 15.

3242
02:54:30,216 --> 02:54:30,856
You print.

3243
02:54:30,956 --> 02:54:33,096
You're going to print the numerator and the denominator.

3244
02:54:33,096 --> 02:54:38,096
You haven't changed your valuation excess at all.

3245
02:54:38,876 --> 02:54:40,836
You flat out have to correct the price.

3246
02:54:40,956 --> 02:54:42,516
You have to correct the price.

3247
02:54:43,476 --> 02:54:50,096
Unless you want to buy an asset that's PE of 40, price to return 2.5%.

3248
02:54:50,756 --> 02:54:54,096
And no one wants 2.5%.

3249
02:54:54,676 --> 02:54:57,696
This is actually this chart below this.

3250
02:54:58,616 --> 02:55:01,436
Which then you take taxes and fees out of.

3251
02:55:01,436 --> 02:55:04,876
This margin debt is pretty...

3252
02:55:04,876 --> 02:55:08,656
So I question whether margin debt's driving the market

3253
02:55:08,656 --> 02:55:11,116
or whether the market's pulling on the margin debt.

3254
02:55:11,416 --> 02:55:15,196
I tend to believe the margin debt's driving the market.

3255
02:55:16,196 --> 02:55:19,556
But you could imagine the margin debt going up when the market's going up.

3256
02:55:19,616 --> 02:55:21,756
Say, oh yeah, so momentum chasers, right?

3257
02:55:24,256 --> 02:55:28,616
All these charts, go to the chart with the horizontal red lines on it.

3258
02:55:28,816 --> 02:55:30,176
The chart from hell.

3259
02:55:31,436 --> 02:55:35,996
this chart to me blows my circuits.

3260
02:55:39,396 --> 02:55:40,796
It's further down, I think.

3261
02:55:40,936 --> 02:55:42,396
Keep going down, keep going down.

3262
02:55:43,116 --> 02:55:44,336
Keep going, keep going.

3263
02:55:44,416 --> 02:55:45,916
You'll see horizontal red lines.

3264
02:55:45,996 --> 02:55:46,376
Keep going.

3265
02:55:46,556 --> 02:55:47,236
I'll spot it.

3266
02:55:47,296 --> 02:55:48,856
As soon as you hit it, I'll see it fast.

3267
02:55:49,476 --> 02:55:51,136
You scroll fast, I'll see it.

3268
02:55:52,336 --> 02:55:52,976
That one.

3269
02:55:54,536 --> 02:55:57,316
Okay, that's the inflation adjusted S&P.

3270
02:55:58,076 --> 02:56:00,116
Those red lines are from peaks.

3271
02:56:01,436 --> 02:56:06,176
in which you go across and at some fateful day,

3272
02:56:06,336 --> 02:56:07,676
some number of years later,

3273
02:56:07,976 --> 02:56:12,496
you get back to that exact same price one last time.

3274
02:56:13,896 --> 02:56:14,176
Right?

3275
02:56:15,136 --> 02:56:18,636
Those red lines are 40 to 75 years long.

3276
02:56:20,896 --> 02:56:23,196
So if you own the 29 top,

3277
02:56:24,156 --> 02:56:27,476
you are even capital gains, inflation adjusted,

3278
02:56:27,476 --> 02:56:30,816
not taxes, not dividends.

3279
02:56:31,436 --> 02:56:35,636
you were even capital gains in 1981.

3280
02:56:37,196 --> 02:56:37,756
Damn.

3281
02:56:38,596 --> 02:56:40,176
Which means if you own,

3282
02:56:40,216 --> 02:56:41,516
if you own expensive markets,

3283
02:56:41,596 --> 02:56:42,136
you're in trouble.

3284
02:56:42,396 --> 02:56:43,636
If you own the top,

3285
02:56:43,876 --> 02:56:44,256
you're fucked.

3286
02:56:44,756 --> 02:56:44,896
Yeah.

3287
02:56:46,196 --> 02:56:47,816
So this explains 50%.

3288
02:56:47,816 --> 02:56:48,116
Now,

3289
02:56:48,236 --> 02:56:49,816
now here's the question I like to ask.

3290
02:56:49,916 --> 02:56:51,776
See that last red line at the top.

3291
02:56:52,396 --> 02:56:54,516
Based on those other five,

3292
02:56:55,656 --> 02:57:00,696
are we not going to come back and test that 2000 peak one more time?

3293
02:57:01,436 --> 02:57:04,576
the AI productivity gains will allow it.

3294
02:57:05,236 --> 02:57:08,036
We're going to an age of abundance.

3295
02:57:08,036 --> 02:57:10,656
Until they stop and then it'll find its way back.

3296
02:57:10,716 --> 02:57:13,716
Because the 20th century had a lot of gains too.

3297
02:57:14,376 --> 02:57:16,416
20th century was a pretty cool time, right?

3298
02:57:17,176 --> 02:57:17,956
Here's one I love.

3299
02:57:18,016 --> 02:57:20,376
The story I love is the Gundlach story where he says,

3300
02:57:20,456 --> 02:57:23,016
there's nothing more transformational than electricity.

3301
02:57:23,656 --> 02:57:25,636
You can talk about AI all you want.

3302
02:57:26,336 --> 02:57:29,816
Electricity is absolutely top of the food,

3303
02:57:29,816 --> 02:57:32,296
in terms of transforming civilization.

3304
02:57:33,776 --> 02:57:36,376
The electricity stocks did well, as you can imagine,

3305
02:57:36,476 --> 02:57:38,056
when electricity started to pick up steam.

3306
02:57:38,256 --> 02:57:39,856
They peaked in 1911.

3307
02:57:41,116 --> 02:57:42,876
Electricity was just getting started, and they peaked.

3308
02:57:43,096 --> 02:57:44,816
So if you're owning AI stocks,

3309
02:57:44,876 --> 02:57:46,896
you think you're going to catch these huge gains going forward,

3310
02:57:47,316 --> 02:57:49,656
your gains might all be in the rearview mirror already.

3311
02:57:51,136 --> 02:57:53,316
Look at that NVIDIA, Tesla.

3312
02:57:54,156 --> 02:57:55,116
Yeah, yeah.

3313
02:57:55,636 --> 02:57:56,756
You've already got those gains.

3314
02:57:56,756 --> 02:58:01,496
Those gains are gains pulled forward from the future.

3315
02:58:01,756 --> 02:58:02,316
They're priced in.

3316
02:58:03,016 --> 02:58:03,676
They're priced in.

3317
02:58:04,376 --> 02:58:05,376
You know what?

3318
02:58:05,496 --> 02:58:12,216
They're going to do – one year I made reference to the forward 2040 earnings estimates.

3319
02:58:14,776 --> 02:58:16,716
Why would you ever use forward estimates?

3320
02:58:17,016 --> 02:58:20,716
People say, well, that's because you're trying to project how much the value are.

3321
02:58:20,936 --> 02:58:22,036
I go, let me see if I got this right.

3322
02:58:22,036 --> 02:58:27,636
Forward estimates, you're completely making shit up, whereas trailing estimates, you actually have numbers.

3323
02:58:28,276 --> 02:58:30,716
And you're using the make shit up estimate.

3324
02:58:31,596 --> 02:58:35,136
I don't give a damn if you're trying to figure out where they're going to go.

3325
02:58:35,276 --> 02:58:37,716
You're making shit up.

3326
02:58:37,876 --> 02:58:40,316
And I get pissed off at the guys who talk about corrections.

3327
02:58:41,436 --> 02:58:43,116
Look at the Goldman chart.

3328
02:58:43,236 --> 02:58:45,276
Go to Twitter and look at the Goldman chart.

3329
02:58:46,556 --> 02:58:48,396
This chart really reveals it.

3330
02:58:49,596 --> 02:58:50,576
Goldman Sachs?

3331
02:58:50,576 --> 02:58:52,116
Yeah, GS.

3332
02:58:52,456 --> 02:58:54,016
I just did this yesterday.

3333
02:58:54,556 --> 02:58:55,596
Just picked it up yesterday.

3334
02:58:56,576 --> 02:58:58,216
Just cash tag GS?

3335
02:58:58,976 --> 02:59:02,316
No, not in the year review.

3336
02:59:02,476 --> 02:59:03,696
Just go to Yahoo or something.

3337
02:59:09,876 --> 02:59:12,396
It's as good an example I've seen of a correction.

3338
02:59:15,296 --> 02:59:15,996
All right.

3339
02:59:17,676 --> 02:59:19,076
Do five-year Goldman chart.

3340
02:59:20,576 --> 02:59:26,896
Right here.

3341
02:59:27,556 --> 02:59:27,696
Yeah.

3342
02:59:28,096 --> 02:59:34,516
So from 2020, late 2023, the president Goldman is up 200%.

3343
02:59:34,516 --> 02:59:38,076
3x in what?

3344
02:59:38,776 --> 02:59:39,616
Two years?

3345
02:59:42,156 --> 02:59:42,716
Yeah.

3346
02:59:42,756 --> 02:59:44,036
How is that possible?

3347
02:59:44,976 --> 02:59:46,516
Was it that dirt cheap back then?

3348
02:59:46,516 --> 02:59:49,356
Now, let's go to 2025 early.

3349
02:59:49,356 --> 02:59:53,516
That correction right there in 2025, did that correct anything?

3350
02:59:54,896 --> 02:59:59,756
The term correction implies repairing something, something that's out of kilter.

3351
02:59:59,896 --> 03:00:00,656
You fixed it.

3352
03:00:01,436 --> 03:00:07,616
If you put your thumb right over that dip, just put your thumb right over that dip,

3353
03:00:08,476 --> 03:00:11,696
is there a shred of evidence that that corrected anything?

3354
03:00:12,596 --> 03:00:12,876
No.

3355
03:00:13,736 --> 03:00:16,776
You could just erase that and just draw a straight line through it.

3356
03:00:16,796 --> 03:00:17,576
You go, yeah, of course.

3357
03:00:17,576 --> 03:00:24,716
Now you really want to see a cool one if you can find the Dow, 1900 to 1940.

3358
03:00:24,976 --> 03:00:26,316
It's an amazing chart.

3359
03:00:27,976 --> 03:00:30,096
1900 to 1940.

3360
03:00:30,896 --> 03:00:33,596
Search Dow, 1900 to 1940.

3361
03:00:34,556 --> 03:00:35,976
I've used it several times.

3362
03:00:39,976 --> 03:00:41,476
And I've got this one.

3363
03:00:41,476 --> 03:00:43,476
uh

3364
03:00:50,436 --> 03:01:00,208
it not the right one Can find the exact chart I mean I have a chart that covers

3365
03:01:00,208 --> 03:01:02,668
that time, but not just that. Go for it. Just bring it up for

3366
03:01:02,668 --> 03:01:06,488
fun. Just let me see. Bring up the search. Bring up the search.

3367
03:01:07,208 --> 03:01:09,648
Do the Google search images and I'll find it.

3368
03:01:09,648 --> 03:01:20,568
Keep going down, keep going down, keep going down.

3369
03:01:21,668 --> 03:01:23,568
There's one that's just so good.

3370
03:01:23,688 --> 03:01:24,668
Keep going down.

3371
03:01:26,848 --> 03:01:29,068
Obviously, Google's not picking up my writing.

3372
03:01:31,068 --> 03:01:33,328
Now, I hate the semi-log charts.

3373
03:01:33,428 --> 03:01:34,688
Those drive me crazy.

3374
03:01:36,688 --> 03:01:37,948
There's a purpose for them.

3375
03:01:38,048 --> 03:01:38,928
I'm not seeing it.

3376
03:01:38,928 --> 03:01:39,908
I'm not seeing a good one.

3377
03:01:40,788 --> 03:01:46,948
So what you see is you see this sort of straight line in which it goes way the fuck up in 29,

3378
03:01:47,188 --> 03:01:51,508
goes way the fuck down in 32, and then goes back and then just moves forward.

3379
03:01:51,508 --> 03:02:00,768
And the whole thumb thing all over again where it just – but this is – but the log, yeah, that's okay.

3380
03:02:01,308 --> 03:02:01,908
That's okay.

3381
03:02:03,448 --> 03:02:05,688
Now that's a fucking correction.

3382
03:02:05,688 --> 03:02:09,148
that's a correction

3383
03:02:09,148 --> 03:02:10,648
got way out of whack

3384
03:02:10,648 --> 03:02:13,128
got way under whack

3385
03:02:13,128 --> 03:02:15,888
came back to normal

3386
03:02:15,888 --> 03:02:18,668
yeah

3387
03:02:18,668 --> 03:02:20,148
oh that's the log

3388
03:02:20,148 --> 03:02:21,068
I hate the log

3389
03:02:21,068 --> 03:02:24,148
the 1900 and 1949 logarithmic one

3390
03:02:24,148 --> 03:02:26,188
you see it so clearly

3391
03:02:26,188 --> 03:02:27,968
this one

3392
03:02:27,968 --> 03:02:30,668
that still looks

3393
03:02:30,668 --> 03:02:31,828
that's logarithmic still

3394
03:02:31,828 --> 03:02:36,188
I can't find it

3395
03:02:36,188 --> 03:02:37,628
Let me see if I can find it

3396
03:02:37,628 --> 03:02:39,028
Just so I can tell you how to get to it

3397
03:02:45,028 --> 03:02:47,668
I showed this to an editor of The Economist

3398
03:02:47,668 --> 03:02:49,968
He goes, holy fuck, I've never looked at that

3399
03:02:49,968 --> 03:02:50,628
There it is

3400
03:02:50,628 --> 03:02:52,248
Where?

3401
03:02:57,208 --> 03:02:58,448
1929 and 1940

3402
03:02:58,448 --> 03:03:00,168
No, I need 1900

3403
03:03:00,168 --> 03:03:03,168
It's got to go back because you got to see the correction.

3404
03:03:10,168 --> 03:03:14,168
It's not picking up my goddamn ear in review, that's for sure.

3405
03:03:23,168 --> 03:03:25,168
This should do it.

3406
03:03:26,168 --> 03:03:28,168
I'll show you.

3407
03:03:30,168 --> 03:03:32,528
There we go.

3408
03:03:38,288 --> 03:03:39,768
No, it's still logarithmic.

3409
03:03:40,168 --> 03:03:41,628
Oh, no, it's not logarithmic.

3410
03:03:42,408 --> 03:03:43,648
Oh, that's price in gold.

3411
03:03:44,448 --> 03:03:45,228
Grams of gold.

3412
03:03:45,788 --> 03:03:47,588
Yeah, I don't like those charts at all.

3413
03:03:49,708 --> 03:03:51,288
I'm not finding it at all.

3414
03:03:52,408 --> 03:03:53,388
You're hiding it from us.

3415
03:03:53,388 --> 03:04:00,608
Yeah, it's in a couple of my year-end reviews.

3416
03:04:00,728 --> 03:04:01,568
I've used it twice.

3417
03:04:02,568 --> 03:04:05,928
And it's just so compelling where you go, that's what a correction is.

3418
03:04:07,568 --> 03:04:13,228
A correction is not something that goes down a lot and then it gets back to a new high two years later.

3419
03:04:13,228 --> 03:04:19,608
If we're 200% of our historical average valuation, a correction has to correct price and attitude.

3420
03:04:19,608 --> 03:04:25,948
And if you come down 60 or 70%, you've corrected price.

3421
03:04:26,048 --> 03:04:28,108
If it bounces right back, you've corrected nothing.

3422
03:04:29,368 --> 03:04:29,928
Nothing.

3423
03:04:30,988 --> 03:04:34,808
What you've done is you've given investors the sense of invincibility.

3424
03:04:35,328 --> 03:04:39,848
The complacency bubble argument I make is that investors think the feds are going to save them.

3425
03:04:40,228 --> 03:04:41,588
Someone's going to save them.

3426
03:04:42,208 --> 03:04:44,148
It just can't happen.

3427
03:04:44,148 --> 03:04:49,368
Well, and I guess a –

3428
03:04:49,368 --> 03:04:51,368
For 45 years, that's been true.

3429
03:04:51,368 --> 03:04:59,788
Well, a development that would point to maybe the Fed's not coming to save them anymore as a squabble between Powell and Trump.

3430
03:05:00,268 --> 03:05:01,628
But that's a minor thing.

3431
03:05:02,088 --> 03:05:08,248
The examples I use is Mao killed 40 million, Mao killed 80 million, Stalin killed 40 million.

3432
03:05:08,748 --> 03:05:10,428
You think the state's going to protect you?

3433
03:05:10,428 --> 03:05:15,608
bad shit happens to the peasants

3434
03:05:15,608 --> 03:05:18,728
the only reason they protect you is if they fear you

3435
03:05:18,728 --> 03:05:22,628
do you think they fear the peasants right now?

3436
03:05:23,448 --> 03:05:24,768
not yet, not enough

3437
03:05:24,768 --> 03:05:27,908
not enough

3438
03:05:27,908 --> 03:05:30,528
well actually they might

3439
03:05:30,528 --> 03:05:34,028
so the Fed has shown in many of their sayings

3440
03:05:34,028 --> 03:05:39,188
a number of Fed governors have shown a fear of a recession

3441
03:05:39,188 --> 03:05:43,908
Now, previous Fed governors, it's like, fuck, get over it.

3442
03:05:44,508 --> 03:05:45,048
They happen.

3443
03:05:45,168 --> 03:05:47,168
It's like drinking too much than projectile vomiting.

3444
03:05:47,328 --> 03:05:47,988
That's what you do.

3445
03:05:48,468 --> 03:05:51,128
Recessions clear out the debris, period.

3446
03:05:51,568 --> 03:06:08,548
Now, I can make the argument that some intervention in the 30s might have been productive because when you correct a huge mistake like they did in the 20s, which was a vast credit bubble, that you do huge damage correcting it.

3447
03:06:08,548 --> 03:06:11,268
And maybe the banks didn't all have to go under.

3448
03:06:11,528 --> 03:06:17,648
Maybe there was some moderate, you know, lend dear rates.

3449
03:06:18,068 --> 03:06:19,228
Lend dearly, I think.

3450
03:06:19,368 --> 03:06:19,588
Who is it?

3451
03:06:19,708 --> 03:06:20,488
Is that Bastiat?

3452
03:06:20,628 --> 03:06:21,608
Who's the guy who said that?

3453
03:06:23,028 --> 03:06:29,548
And so you save what are otherwise good banks that have a run going at them, but make them pay dearly for it.

3454
03:06:29,808 --> 03:06:30,508
Here's what I'd like.

3455
03:06:30,568 --> 03:06:31,828
Here's the rule I'd like to put in place.

3456
03:06:32,688 --> 03:06:36,668
Tell all the banks, pass losses, every bank, define the C-suite.

3457
03:06:36,668 --> 03:06:39,668
I don't know how you do it, but you say, okay, here's the definition for C-Sweeter.

3458
03:06:39,788 --> 03:06:49,608
The top 10 most highly paid guys in the company say, if we have to bail you out, you're going to give back five years of all your compensation.

3459
03:06:52,368 --> 03:06:53,908
They're going to behave themselves, aren't they?

3460
03:06:54,228 --> 03:06:54,368
Yep.

3461
03:06:56,228 --> 03:06:57,288
But you never do.

3462
03:06:57,768 --> 03:06:57,948
No.

3463
03:06:58,148 --> 03:07:02,968
I mean, again, when you're talking about there's no accountability, was the last time anybody went to jail or was actually held accountable?

3464
03:07:02,968 --> 03:07:09,708
So one of the books about the GFC, which also didn't correct any.

3465
03:07:09,788 --> 03:07:14,328
If you look at the GFC in my year-end review, we got back to historical average valuation.

3466
03:07:14,528 --> 03:07:15,028
We didn't get cheap.

3467
03:07:15,128 --> 03:07:15,888
We never got cheap.

3468
03:07:17,168 --> 03:07:20,408
And we stayed there for about a month.

3469
03:07:20,988 --> 03:07:23,208
And I thought I was dreaming, but Spitznagel said it.

3470
03:07:23,328 --> 03:07:24,208
Grantham said it.

3471
03:07:24,828 --> 03:07:25,728
Others have said it.

3472
03:07:26,128 --> 03:07:30,028
We got, should we say, reasonably valued for about a month.

3473
03:07:31,288 --> 03:07:32,668
And that's not a correction.

3474
03:07:33,108 --> 03:07:38,868
After that catastrophe, we should have done some real damage and we should have gone lower.

3475
03:07:39,568 --> 03:07:43,108
And instead, we gave investors the sense of invincibility.

3476
03:07:44,008 --> 03:07:46,508
We said they can stop anything.

3477
03:07:48,028 --> 03:07:51,508
It's like sandbagging the Mississippi River for Katrina.

3478
03:07:53,568 --> 03:07:55,608
And that's like, do they have one more in them after COVID?

3479
03:07:56,068 --> 03:08:08,660
I don think they do See that my bet But my bet is and I think the Fed must be terrified that they will try to intervene by dropping rates and the bond market will go the other direction

3480
03:08:08,960 --> 03:08:09,760
It's already happened.

3481
03:08:10,420 --> 03:08:11,440
And it's already happening.

3482
03:08:11,440 --> 03:08:13,740
And so I don't think they dare intervene.

3483
03:08:14,480 --> 03:08:21,720
Because if we discover the Fed is powerless, then the markets will really shit a pickle.

3484
03:08:21,720 --> 03:08:24,840
but the other thing is

3485
03:08:24,840 --> 03:08:27,080
if you look at the last two big recessions

3486
03:08:27,080 --> 03:08:28,460
the GFC and the dot com

3487
03:08:28,460 --> 03:08:31,440
the Fed started cutting rates

3488
03:08:31,440 --> 03:08:33,560
almost to the day at the top

3489
03:08:33,560 --> 03:08:36,240
and they stopped cutting rates

3490
03:08:36,240 --> 03:08:37,920
almost to the day at the bottom

3491
03:08:37,920 --> 03:08:39,820
so people say well Fed cutting rates is bullish

3492
03:08:39,820 --> 03:08:41,880
I go no last time they cut rates

3493
03:08:41,880 --> 03:08:43,460
it went down 50%

3494
03:08:43,460 --> 03:08:47,900
aggressive rate cutting is a catastrophe

3495
03:08:47,900 --> 03:08:50,480
yeah

3496
03:08:50,480 --> 03:08:56,260
What is the market business that they cut rates in the fall?

3497
03:08:56,900 --> 03:08:57,120
Let me see.

3498
03:08:58,940 --> 03:09:02,580
I think they're trying to tap the rates, hoping to somehow.

3499
03:09:02,900 --> 03:09:04,740
They're trying to bleed a bubble, right?

3500
03:09:04,920 --> 03:09:05,820
That doesn't work.

3501
03:09:06,740 --> 03:09:07,040
No.

3502
03:09:08,020 --> 03:09:09,260
It goes emergent.

3503
03:09:11,120 --> 03:09:18,340
Any physical scientist will tell you when he gets displaced, way away from equilibrium, once it starts to equilibrate back, it is out of control.

3504
03:09:18,340 --> 03:09:20,340
It is the fires in California.

3505
03:09:20,900 --> 03:09:21,600
It's a volcano.

3506
03:09:21,960 --> 03:09:22,600
It's earthquakes.

3507
03:09:22,800 --> 03:09:23,620
It's avalanches.

3508
03:09:23,960 --> 03:09:26,400
It's chemical explosions in the lab.

3509
03:09:28,740 --> 03:09:33,200
That's why you want equilibrations to occur steadily.

3510
03:09:33,860 --> 03:09:39,160
When the markets get out of whack, you want to let them fix so that you don't have a fatality.

3511
03:09:41,100 --> 03:09:41,580
Yeah.

3512
03:09:42,180 --> 03:09:43,560
But they've refused to.

3513
03:09:44,740 --> 03:09:46,840
They'll continue to try to refuse to, I believe.

3514
03:09:46,840 --> 03:09:50,180
But I think they'll have to step back this time.

3515
03:09:50,260 --> 03:09:53,320
I think at some point they'll just go out of the splash zone,

3516
03:09:54,480 --> 03:09:57,640
and they're going to do an Andrew Mellon moment and just say,

3517
03:09:57,980 --> 03:09:59,420
why don't liquidate?

3518
03:10:00,780 --> 03:10:06,760
And really, is it really going to affect the bottom of the economy that much?

3519
03:10:06,760 --> 03:10:08,440
Most of these people don't own these assets.

3520
03:10:09,100 --> 03:10:10,620
No, they'll lose their jobs, though.

3521
03:10:12,740 --> 03:10:15,800
Yeah, they'll lose their jobs.

3522
03:10:15,800 --> 03:10:17,160
Yeah, it'll hurt them badly.

3523
03:10:17,740 --> 03:10:17,880
Yeah.

3524
03:10:18,380 --> 03:10:19,600
It always hurts them badly.

3525
03:10:20,060 --> 03:10:20,360
Yeah.

3526
03:10:21,380 --> 03:10:21,620
Right.

3527
03:10:21,780 --> 03:10:23,180
They get hurt coming and going.

3528
03:10:23,940 --> 03:10:33,740
The average 70-year-old boomer, median, median 70-year-old boomer, who is by definition on the cost of retirement because they're losing their marbles.

3529
03:10:34,100 --> 03:10:36,100
They've got fake fucking knees, right?

3530
03:10:36,200 --> 03:10:37,240
Everything's going south.

3531
03:10:38,320 --> 03:10:39,700
70 is not the new 60.

3532
03:10:39,800 --> 03:10:40,660
70 is 70.

3533
03:10:40,660 --> 03:10:41,720
and

3534
03:10:41,720 --> 03:10:44,880
the median boomer

3535
03:10:44,880 --> 03:10:46,720
has $450,000

3536
03:10:46,720 --> 03:10:47,560
of net worth

3537
03:10:47,560 --> 03:10:49,280
$410,000 of net worth

3538
03:10:49,280 --> 03:10:50,860
that includes real estate

3539
03:10:50,860 --> 03:10:51,860
because they probably

3540
03:10:51,860 --> 03:10:52,720
have a house now

3541
03:10:52,720 --> 03:10:54,120
or a condo

3542
03:10:54,120 --> 03:10:55,780
and it's estimated

3543
03:10:55,780 --> 03:10:57,520
that about $200,000 of it

3544
03:10:57,520 --> 03:10:59,840
is actually investable assets

3545
03:10:59,840 --> 03:11:01,200
consumable assets

3546
03:11:01,200 --> 03:11:04,360
the most they can afford

3547
03:11:04,360 --> 03:11:04,980
to take out

3548
03:11:04,980 --> 03:11:06,380
that $200,000 per year

3549
03:11:06,380 --> 03:11:06,900
is like

3550
03:11:06,900 --> 03:11:09,460
it's like

3551
03:11:10,660 --> 03:11:11,780
I did the math wrong.

3552
03:11:11,900 --> 03:11:15,420
It's like 4% of $200,000.

3553
03:11:16,060 --> 03:11:17,480
3% of $200,000.

3554
03:11:18,020 --> 03:11:18,160
Yeah.

3555
03:11:18,600 --> 03:11:20,160
I got that math wrong.

3556
03:11:20,280 --> 03:11:21,540
I think I fucked up that math.

3557
03:11:24,560 --> 03:11:26,080
There's something dead wrong there.

3558
03:11:26,520 --> 03:11:30,160
I just had a memory of a $22,000 estimate, and that's just dead wrong.

3559
03:11:30,680 --> 03:11:36,160
By the way, the median boomer also, median seven-year-old, also Social Security of $22,000.

3560
03:11:36,160 --> 03:11:39,820
22,000 from social security

3561
03:11:39,820 --> 03:11:40,820
that's correct

3562
03:11:40,820 --> 03:11:44,020
plus 8 grand that's what 30,000

3563
03:11:44,020 --> 03:11:45,480
they gotta

3564
03:11:45,480 --> 03:11:46,680
live on that

3565
03:11:46,680 --> 03:11:49,220
not gonna be easy

3566
03:11:49,220 --> 03:11:51,700
you heard it here first

3567
03:11:51,700 --> 03:11:53,580
I've gotta run here

3568
03:11:53,580 --> 03:11:55,540
it's been a great way to end the week though

3569
03:11:55,540 --> 03:11:59,880
well it's always fun Marty

3570
03:11:59,880 --> 03:12:01,160
and we'll have to do it again

3571
03:12:01,160 --> 03:12:03,940
I'm reading a bunch of books on economics

3572
03:12:03,940 --> 03:12:06,020
this year because I think this will be

3573
03:12:06,020 --> 03:12:08,300
the year to talk about the carnage in the markets.

3574
03:12:08,780 --> 03:12:10,140
I think it'll be...

3575
03:12:10,140 --> 03:12:11,820
I think that's why Andrew Ross Sorkin wrote

3576
03:12:11,820 --> 03:12:14,080
1929. He's trying to get ahead

3577
03:12:14,080 --> 03:12:15,900
of the mess. I think

3578
03:12:15,900 --> 03:12:17,260
someone whispered in his ear.

3579
03:12:17,420 --> 03:12:18,860
He's front-running the SEO.

3580
03:12:19,640 --> 03:12:21,620
Well, I'm not even convinced he wrote the book.

3581
03:12:22,740 --> 03:12:24,000
The audio book,

3582
03:12:24,040 --> 03:12:25,780
he talked about McKay's famous

3583
03:12:25,780 --> 03:12:27,780
treatise, and he

3584
03:12:27,780 --> 03:12:29,520
read it, supposedly, and he called it

3585
03:12:29,520 --> 03:12:30,120
McCad.

3586
03:12:31,820 --> 03:12:33,780
And I'm going, Andrew, you know

3587
03:12:33,780 --> 03:12:35,820
better. Either that's an

3588
03:12:35,820 --> 03:12:39,800
AI voice that has faked me out. It's a good one. Or

3589
03:12:39,800 --> 03:12:43,840
you don't know what you're talking about. And the latter would not shock me in the least.

3590
03:12:44,440 --> 03:12:47,300
I would like to think he's smarter than that.

3591
03:12:48,380 --> 03:12:51,760
He's a Cornell grad. He once accused me of having

3592
03:12:51,760 --> 03:12:54,620
a typo in a tweet, which I said that's not a very

3593
03:12:54,620 --> 03:12:58,360
meaty counterattack.

3594
03:13:00,120 --> 03:13:04,000
Coming at a typo instead of the argument. Coming at a typo

3595
03:13:04,000 --> 03:13:04,860
instead of the argument.

3596
03:13:05,080 --> 03:13:07,780
Yeah, I was unimpressed that he used a typo

3597
03:13:07,780 --> 03:13:08,920
as his counterattack.

3598
03:13:10,700 --> 03:13:13,880
Well, if the market does turn into carnage,

3599
03:13:14,360 --> 03:13:15,060
we'll come on another.

3600
03:13:15,960 --> 03:13:16,880
Talk about it.

3601
03:13:16,980 --> 03:13:17,460
Talk about the book.

3602
03:13:17,460 --> 03:13:19,520
By the way, it's not going to be fun to watch.

3603
03:13:20,580 --> 03:13:23,740
Roman proverb, the vanquished weep,

3604
03:13:23,800 --> 03:13:25,080
the victors do not laugh.

3605
03:13:25,680 --> 03:13:26,860
Yeah, don't dance.

3606
03:13:27,280 --> 03:13:27,800
Don't dance.

3607
03:13:28,380 --> 03:13:29,240
Don't dance.

3608
03:13:30,480 --> 03:13:31,820
They're trying to hold the nest,

3609
03:13:31,820 --> 03:13:35,900
green by the skin of their skinny skin, chinny chin chin today.

3610
03:13:38,620 --> 03:13:39,900
They're still beating on my

3611
03:13:39,900 --> 03:13:42,000
medals this year trying to get them back in the red.

3612
03:13:44,340 --> 03:13:45,820
I think this is...

3613
03:13:45,820 --> 03:13:48,800
I think gold and silver headed way higher.

3614
03:13:50,140 --> 03:13:53,560
I hope so. Kind of.

3615
03:13:54,240 --> 03:13:55,960
I'd rather get 10% a year.

3616
03:13:55,960 --> 03:14:07,840
the uh all right we'll catch up i gotta run yes peace love freaks thank you for listening to this

3617
03:14:07,840 --> 03:14:12,800
episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of the episode

3618
03:14:12,800 --> 03:14:18,160
if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to get the word

3619
03:14:18,160 --> 03:14:25,360
out there also wherever you're listening whether that's youtube apple spotify make sure you like

3620
03:14:25,360 --> 03:14:26,740
and subscribe to the show.

3621
03:14:27,080 --> 03:14:28,440
And if you can leave a rating

3622
03:14:28,440 --> 03:14:30,480
on the podcasting platforms,

3623
03:14:30,480 --> 03:14:31,460
that goes a long way.

3624
03:14:31,900 --> 03:14:32,720
Last but not least,

3625
03:14:32,720 --> 03:14:34,060
if you want to get these episodes

3626
03:14:34,060 --> 03:14:36,480
a day early and ad free,

3627
03:14:36,640 --> 03:14:37,740
make sure you download

3628
03:14:37,740 --> 03:14:39,540
the Fountain podcasting app

3629
03:14:39,540 --> 03:14:41,500
and go to fountain.fm

3630
03:14:41,500 --> 03:14:43,960
to find that $5 a month,

3631
03:14:44,060 --> 03:14:45,080
get you every episode

3632
03:14:45,080 --> 03:14:46,820
a day early, ad free.

3633
03:14:47,380 --> 03:14:48,380
Helps the show,

3634
03:14:48,720 --> 03:14:49,900
gives you incredible value.

3635
03:14:50,500 --> 03:14:51,920
So please consider

3636
03:14:51,920 --> 03:14:54,120
subscribing via Fountain as well.

3637
03:14:54,120 --> 03:14:55,580
Thank you for your time

3638
03:14:55,580 --> 03:14:57,000
And until next time