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good afternoon bitcoiners welcome back to bitcoin center live stream number 43

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hello hello welcome yeah what's up thanks for joining us um the world's on fire you were on

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fire here a little bit before we started you had a lot a lot of thoughts going on about what's

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happening in the world today yeah we're at one of those moments where you're like i i just don't know

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what not what to believe but which version there's a lot of good sounding theories out there everyone's

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monitoring the situation i don't mean to make light of it i mean if you just if you look if you

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look at all the different theories and ideas and you make the assumption that there's a lot uh that

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is right in all those ideas and a lot that's wrong there's some there's some somewhere there's the

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truth and the overlap of all of them um might might be the better way to look at it but

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you know we we were talking earlier about um if you frame the global conflict right now from

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the lens of the way you understand the mafia and the mob to work and the way they fight for power

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internally um as as a lay that kind of architecture over the global power struggle that we're seeing

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today things seem to be making a little more sense right if you're trying to if if the if the

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the boss of XYZ state is trying to become the head boss of all the mafias,

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then you're really looking at an internal warfare.

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And a lot of people are going to get hurt in that warfare.

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And that seems to be, you know, essentially what we're,

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what's happening in the world today.

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So then is the whole personal goal to just not be collateral damage?

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And do you even have to pay attention to what's going on?

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You just like, let me,

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as an individual,

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As an individual, yeah.

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I think that's all you can do.

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Like, how are you going to participate in this?

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Well, if this is...

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I mean, the power projection that we're talking about

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is beyond the scope of any individual.

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Maybe if you're trying to make decisions as an individual

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for yourself or your family,

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like where maybe you should stay or not stay.

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Yeah, for sure.

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You are trying to read what's going on.

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Yeah, I mean, it's interesting

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how many people fled the European Union to the UAE.

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for tax reasons and because they thought you know their capital is going to be locked up and and

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now all the chaos that's ensuing there um do you think that you like to buy like to run sometimes

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to run right as opposed to the you know i mean i absolutely understand you got to run when bombs

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are dropping on your head um but like here in the united states i don't think it's been time to run

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yet. Well, I'm not saying it's not going to happen. The United States is very different than Dubai,

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though. A lot of people moved there to Dubai for the economic opportunity, safety, and security.

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And I think the perception of that might have changed drastically in the last week.

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Yeah, it might have.

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You know, it just takes one drone at the world's tallest building,

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even if it gets intercepted.

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Note that these high-rises that are on fire have not collapsed,

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unlike Building 7.

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or and one and two well yeah i agree um a building seven supposedly collapsed just from a trash from

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the collateral damage yeah so but if this is you know truly uh you know the beginning of the world

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changing wouldn't you want to pay attention to some degree oh yeah i mean i'm paying attention

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to it all the time and constantly running different scenarios about what's really happening in the

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world knowing full well that i by no means have any sort of complete picture but you've like you

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just constantly like game plan all these different scenarios and then as new bits of information fall

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into place is one scenario looking more right than the other in any given time it's massively

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confusing it's massively uh scary for the world at large sure do you i mean do you think uh

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this has made a greater case for bitcoin in terms of portability and secure self-custody that's

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interesting because like we did um i mean they were just dead cat balances but remember when

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uh after venezuela right when we took the ships and the military over to the middle east

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there was a bunch like monero popped zcash pop all these privacy coins popped bitcoin had a

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dead cat bounce and it looked like to me if you're using those channels that this is this is money

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trying to flee jurisdictions through private channels but i mean of course i have no proof of

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that yeah and the sample size is small it's like sifting tea leaves sure uh i did uh i saw a tweet

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from i want to pull up from vlad that was interesting um vlad hosts the best bitcoin

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best podcast in bitcoin vlad castilla has been a bit controversial lately um but you know he said

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sometimes i feel like a fraud who advertises a revolution that never happened bitcoin didn't

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accomplish anything significant at least not compared to the expectations everyone had more

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than a decade ago the price went up the institutions co-opted but we still pay with our cards

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and then eric uh is it vosco vasco vasco he wrote the expectations were always absurd i pointed this

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out for a decade it's not a failure bitcoin it's a failure of people to understand it

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what are your thoughts on well those two points there

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i i think i mean i think your time you know it's time frame dependent right i mean you are seeing

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circular economies around the world the united states is not one the big economies are not one

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of them but i also would suspect that a that a country like the united states that has a

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functioning financial infrastructure as much as we like to on it we have credit cards we have

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checking accounts we have wires and ach and it functions so and we have tax law that says you're

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not going to be able to spend your bitcoin without paying capital gains tax so yeah i wouldn't i never

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expected uh bitcoin to become rapidly become a medium exchange in a country like the united

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states but you look at africa the continent of africa and various different locations throughout

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the continent different uh like um lugano prog other areas around around the world uh el salvador

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where bitcoin is being used as a currency by groups of people bitcoin jungle right there's

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small communities that are sent that are using bitcoin as a medium of exchange a unit of account

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and it's coming from the grassroots up so so i think bitcoin is fulfilling it it's just not

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fulfilling it at the pace that a lot of bitcoiners thought it would happen and i think i think that's

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because you know the largest players in the world the sovereign capital and the the the global

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superpowers are incentivized to maintain the current status it's not we're not going to just

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flip that overnight it's going to take time and um i i i wouldn't say it's failed i just think

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like it's your expectation may have failed but your but it is moving forward perception and

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expectations i think are everything i think you know for maybe i don't think myself as a bitcoin

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og but people have been here for 10 12 years you would think that it would be the opposite feeling

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that bitcoin would be still blowing their mind at 68 000 amidst what could be the beginning of

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a major war war um major regional outbreak that could lead to anything we don't know

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um and that it still seems like this that would be like the view of someone who got in

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much later i feel like and is still very much measuring bitcoin's progress in in its foreign

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exchange rate with the dollar i i i don't know sure if i following you but when i think of the ogs

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people that were here long before me that i got the opportunity to listen to because they were

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very active in social media early on they were all envisioning bitcoin as this way to overthrow

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flip the tables on this financial system that was oppressive thrived in war created chaos around the

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world and extracted wealth from from people i still think that bitcoin is built to do that

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but the time frame to achieve that is much longer than what people had anticipated especially as

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they keep kicking the can down the road and the fiat system continues to survive um and then

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and if the fiat system is morphing to a gold settled system for at least half of the world

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if that's where we're heading that's a step back which would i think would eventually fail when

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this gold settled trade eventually somebody says no you're not getting your gold

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and by that time hopefully bitcoin is priced high enough the market cap is big enough

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that we start to see a transition to sovereign states,

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countries, global superpowers,

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starting to do trade, settled trade in Bitcoin.

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Which, of course, then they could move out to gold

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if they want to have some physical custody.

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But nothing has changed in regards to the benefits of trade done on Bitcoin.

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I just think the adoption is not coming at the pace

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that a lot of the OGs would have liked to have seen.

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so i was i think the pay the adoption has been phenomenal and and if we're building noah's ark

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or the life raft it's gotten much bigger and stronger over the last 17 years and i think

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in the um the last three years i think that while institutionally i think institutions have more

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exposure to custodian to bitcoin which gives them more leverage over the market price so not your

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keys not your market price of bitcoin right but bitcoin is as a life raft has gotten so much bigger

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and sturdier for you to port your wealth into true and um there's less reputation risk career

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risk with it as well but the ability to port in security has gotten better all that so as an

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individual i think it's come so much further yes to support individuals and and you still have an

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opportunity to as an individual to speculate in front-run institutions if you want the sort of

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of the asymmetric bed of it.

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But if you just want to store your wealth,

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it's become a better place for that, I think,

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or a stronger hub.

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I agree.

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And I guess that's like phase one.

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You know, phase two would be

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medium exchange unit of account.

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We have pockets of that growing.

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But I think a lot has to change

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before that starts to take a global presence.

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Yeah, I agree with that.

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I don't think that's coming for a while.

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How are you going to have medium of exchange when maybe the global ownership of Bitcoin is 1% to 3%?

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Right.

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You can have medium of exchange, just the incentives aren't there for most of the world.

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Unit of account, again, I can use that as...

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And that doesn't mean give up on building medium of exchange.

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We need to keep building that stuff.

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We need to build medium of exchange.

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We need to build that and we need to expand more and more circular economies living off Bitcoin.

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That fight can't stop.

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The building can't stop.

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And that's why I don't like it when people say, oh, Bitcoin has failed or Bitcoin is dead.

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It's like it's not dead or failed.

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It's just your perception of how fast things are going to happen when you're fighting the largest financial infrastructure on the planet.

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It's going to take time.

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Right.

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But the fact that the way it moves virally, the way it grows according to power law, the way it is taken up naturally bit by bit, individual by individual, is a slow and steady growth rate that eventually once the doubling is we're going from one and a half trillion to three trillion, three trillion to six, six to 12, 12 to 24.

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right once those doublings compound over time now all of a sudden you have ownership going from three

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percent to six percent and you get to the scale where now medium of exchange amongst you have

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more peers to trade with it'll start to happen naturally i just think the time frame is is is

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greater than most people would have hoped yeah i agree envisioned well yeah i think it's sort of

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what can bitcoin do for me versus what can i do for bitcoin and um you know so low time preference

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so all right let's let's run the the intro so we can get into the show here we got a lot of

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exciting topics please hit like and subscribe if you're enjoying bitcoin center live stream

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number 43 brought to you by by federal go bank yourself

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Let's be real, right?

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Praising Telegram for launching a Bitcoin wallet.

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I've always felt like Luke Haley.

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Bitcoin, this digital currency that's out there that people say, oh, it might be the next big thing.

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What do you think?

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I think it's rat poison.

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Bitcoins. You never heard them a few weeks ago.

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Now everybody's talking about them.

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But is it a currency?

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I don't know.

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Or is it more like a stock?

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Or is it a tulip bowl?

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We're going to debate that.

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Stupid.

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To me, it smells like Ponzi scheme in the greater fool theory writing.

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You do like five minutes of freaking research.

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Well, thanks for coming to my set talk.

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Yes.

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Don't buy shit.

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Oh, man, I didn't get that wrong.

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All right.

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Bitcoin's recent rally.

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Do you agree?

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Is crypto finally dead?

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Go to the next one.

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Matter of fact, they're kind of in the Ethernet.

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What are they?

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Some rumors that it's a Japanese guy, but they know that he's a fake name.

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It was a pseudonym.

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You're literally putting real money onto a system that we don't even know who created it.

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It will come to a bad ending.

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Is this the most exciting bull run ever?

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Not for me.

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No, it's not.

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Welcome to Bitcoin Center, the fast-paced show where the debate is the story.

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Let's do some updates about Israel and Iran and potentially the United States.

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On one side is the Lindsey Graham, John Bolton types, where they are actively calling for regime change.

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Here is Lindsey Graham. This is just lunacy.

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This kind of analysis is not helpful.

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This kind of approach, this kind of argument, it says nothing new with nuclear weapons at this point.

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This is now that we want to go all in and take out the regime.

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It's time for us to close the chapter on the Iranian Ayatollah and his henchmen and start a new chapter in the Middle East.

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That sounds good, doesn't it?

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But what have we learned when it comes to wars and especially wars in the Middle East?

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What you draw up on a whiteboard rarely happens.

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what you think theoretically is going to occur there might be unintended and unforeseen

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consequences especially when you're talking about a country two and a half times the size of texas

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it has 90 million people and was an ancient and great great power with well over a dozen

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What's up?

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We frozen?

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I think my camera probably went out.

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That's what I'm guessing.

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Uh-oh.

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Uh-oh.

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Did your camera overheat?

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That's what I'm assuming.

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Please have a technical issue.

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that's what you get for running a charlie kirk

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stream

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no signal yeah

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okay i think we're back

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put it back on cam link see if it pops up you guys watch the clip yeah yeah okay let's let's keep

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room okay well we saw half of the clip there but um i just can't tell if

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you know this is trump running the board like if you're looking at risk or you know

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board game of life militarily and he's clearing the you know the deck of all

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of America's perceived greatest enemies and sort of corralling China and Russia and breaking their

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supply chains, or this is just more banker wars and they're all working together behind the scenes

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to drain civilization of all wealth. It's just really...

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i yeah i don't know the answer to any of that except that what it what my intuition is telling

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me is that this is not going to be like other mid-eastern wars this isn't going to be a forever

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war this is going to escalate fast is my interpretation to escalate fast it's going to get

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out of hand fast, maybe even regional nukes.

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And I think it's meant, this is just my interpretation,

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and I could be completely wrong,

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but I think it's meant to scare the globe

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and issue in the digital surveillance state

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that we have been talking about as Bitcoiners for a decade now If you think about how 9 scared people and we got the Patriot Act

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if you position this as a global 9-11

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to issue in a digital surveillance state,

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my intuition is telling me that that might be

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what's at least one of the driving forces

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behind this chaos.

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And by increasing its speed.

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I think everything you mentioned there was happening before this weekend's events.

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They got to 2030 to get this stuff done, right?

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So I got to speed it up, I think is what you're saying.

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That's the way I feel about it.

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Because this seems like ratcheting it up exponentially.

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And if the rumors are true and you get the internet, if the internet goes down through the Middle East, if the cables through the share home use are blasted, you have water infrastructure.

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disabled. You have even to the extent of a regional nukes or nuke being used in this war,

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that would scare the entire globe. It'd be like bringing you right up to the brink of a global

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nuclear war. That would scare everybody into, okay, nobody's allowed to go anywhere in the

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world without a digital passport. Nobody's allowed to do a financial transaction without

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digital identification and surveillance. We're doing it for your own safety. We're doing it to

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protect you. You cannot get on the internet unless you log in with your full credentials.

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Everything gets surveilled. Everything gets permissioned. I'm not saying they're going to

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be successful, but I'm saying this could be one of the driving forces behind this kind of escalation

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of chaos because it doesn't um if you know it but it has that do you think that it escalates

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from here obviously i think it does right this is sort of the it's my interpretation yeah this is

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the but it's not a long-lived kinetic no i don't think this is one of those like okay we've been at

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war in iran for eight years i think this escalates within the first you know the next three four

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months to a crescendo and that's horrific to get enough fear globally to get the

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compliance that they want compliance and then is it inflation and money printing as well

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well like in way covet was a sort of uh right stay home print money there's no economic activity

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but things get better uh for because of i mean that that would be the easy answer right just be

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like yeah the print they're gonna print forever and but this doesn't feel like always i've always

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held the option that they don't do the big print because it could impart enough pressure on people

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to get them to comply to what they want for a UBI check,

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for stable coins in your federal wallet, et cetera.

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So, I mean, if they need to kick the can down the road again,

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then yeah, we'll get a big print.

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How much do you think this comes to the States in terms of,

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or how, I mean.

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I think it's a great,

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it's i i've i've been anticipating i think many of us in the space right have been anticipating

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an attack on the u.s grid attack on u.s internet some sort of catalyze like terrorist infrastructure

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type of attack to to help catalyze us i i thought you know that it would come first

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to try and suck us into an attack um but now maybe it's it comes as a result of of the uh

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the war. Um, but yeah, I do think we have, um,

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let some people into the country that would probably be willing or,

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or interested or maybe came here with the intention of doing that. Uh,

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and, uh, if we're going to see it, I think we could see it this year.

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A lot of people speculated that would happen after nine 11 and we,

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yeah, we didn't. Yeah. Maybe we don't, you know, but I mean,

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we got it, we got a big enough, but I mean, even if it's just, uh,

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well, if it's a big financial institution that gets hacked,

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or something more economic.

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It's like, oh, well, this is really

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we need to really rebuild.

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We get some sort of

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maybe we get a terrorist attack on a section

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and the energy grid goes down. It's like, oh, we need

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to rebuild all this stuff.

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Maybe it's just a hack, right? Oh, the North Koreans

293
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or the Iranians hacked our energy grid

294
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and shut it down.

295
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Any sort of thing that's going to disrupt

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your easy living

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in the United States

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will be cause for

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a rebuild

300
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A rebuild could be printing.

301
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A rebuild would also probably be more centered around cybersecurity and therefore surveillance.

302
00:24:02,558 --> 00:24:04,958
Because that's their answer to security, right?

303
00:24:05,038 --> 00:24:07,478
It's surveillance, not real security.

304
00:24:07,838 --> 00:24:14,938
Do you see any best case scenarios here that I hate to think nationalistically, but for America?

305
00:24:14,938 --> 00:24:24,458
best best case scenario this flashes out fast peace is discovered fast and and we move on with um

306
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the gcc starting to become you know like more taking more control over the middle east and

307
00:24:32,058 --> 00:24:39,978
having a more peaceful relationship but i i've said this a million times every time i talk

308
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like doesn't get fixed until it's broken and it may not get fixed the way you want it fixed right

309
00:24:47,418 --> 00:24:54,618
and what do you think uh you know we saw oil spike nine percent so some stock markets get closed

310
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uh you know maybe stocks are down half a percent or percent maybe into some of the bigger indexes

311
00:25:00,138 --> 00:25:06,538
here in north america uh bitcoin's holding flat or at least maybe even bumped up a little bit i mean

312
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do you i mean i i feel like you could point to it and say oh wow bitcoin's not acting like a risk

313
00:25:13,178 --> 00:25:18,378
on asset in this moment a risk off asset you mean well it seems to be acting like a risk

314
00:25:18,378 --> 00:25:25,418
off not a risk on but you know if it crashed majorly or it also might have already predicted

315
00:25:25,418 --> 00:25:29,658
some of this chaos sure that's what i'm saying early on yeah oh i was going to also add it could

316
00:25:29,658 --> 00:25:33,658
it could be acting as a canary in a coal mine and the damage could have came already it was reading

317
00:25:33,658 --> 00:25:40,298
future volatility or it could be that all this could be correlation none of it could be causation

318
00:25:40,298 --> 00:25:46,698
and bitcoin's just you know here it is it was a higher now it's lower it's not really i mean it

319
00:25:46,698 --> 00:25:51,658
still seems if you look at like michael howell's research on global liquidity it still seems like

320
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it's been tracking global liquidity um and it'll be the first time right if this escalates if we

321
00:26:03,498 --> 00:26:13,018
have a global recession due to the financial disruption, economic disruption,

322
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communication disruption, trust disruption due to this war. This war escalates and all that stuff

323
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starts to break and we go into some sort of global financial crisis. This will be the first time

324
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in Bitcoin's history that's gone through that. And so I think that will be a very big test of

325
00:26:32,698 --> 00:26:40,778
of Bitcoin and people's willingness to move toward that asset for security.

326
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So it could prove Bitcoin to be a true risk-off asset.

327
00:26:45,738 --> 00:26:51,198
And maybe that looks like just Bitcoin just going through a real gradual trough for the

328
00:26:51,198 --> 00:26:56,798
next XYZ months versus a crash, right?

329
00:26:56,798 --> 00:27:04,958
Or maybe it looks like shock crash, rapid rebound without bonkers money printing.

330
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There could be a number of different ways that that gives us the indication that people are saying, I need to protect what I have and something that's the most secure on the planet.

331
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And now's the right price to do that at.

332
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Right.

333
00:27:21,258 --> 00:27:25,178
I mean, there's just so many, there's so many variables on the chessboard right now.

334
00:27:25,178 --> 00:27:34,918
it's like really, really hard to make any sort of definitive decision on any of this stuff.

335
00:27:35,518 --> 00:27:37,918
Yeah, it's like reading tea leaves, peeling back layers of the onion.

336
00:27:38,418 --> 00:27:41,698
Well, we'll talk more about Bitcoin volatility in this next topic.

337
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Let's play the clip from astrophysicist at, I think, Harvard.

338
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Professor Stephen Pinner.

339
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We're obviously a little bit low relative to the power law projection.

340
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But the important thing is that the power law index has been stable for a decade now.

341
00:28:00,058 --> 00:28:02,518
So it took a while to lock it in.

342
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It's a system that was developing and it had, you know, you have a young child and those are the most dangerous years, but also the high growth years and they're volatile, you know, from the growth perspective.

343
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And it took Bitcoin about seven years to kind of lock in and stabilize.

344
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And it had this nature from the beginning because of the way it was designed.

345
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But it wasn't absolutely certain that it would develop in that way.

346
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And fortunately for all of us who are in it, it did.

347
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it locked in and it's been a stable continuous scale invariant asset that manifests a power log

348
00:28:49,078 --> 00:28:55,678
but also has these discrete scale invariant bubbles and troughs along the way and i'll talk

349
00:28:55,678 --> 00:29:01,238
about that and show some slides on that and when we talk about the power was i surprised

350
00:29:01,238 --> 00:29:02,378
Oh, yeah, please.

351
00:29:03,278 --> 00:29:04,458
Was I surprised?

352
00:29:04,618 --> 00:29:05,378
I mean, no.

353
00:29:05,538 --> 00:29:10,758
I mean, I think once I saw the power law, I just clicked because of the physics background.

354
00:29:10,758 --> 00:29:26,738
If you put it on a log-log plot and you see a straight line and you see that it's been going for 10 years from 2009, say, price discovery in 2010 until, you know, at that time, 2019, you say, wow, that's impressive.

355
00:29:26,738 --> 00:29:31,158
Because the R squared at 0.95, you just don't find that in finance.

356
00:29:31,238 --> 00:29:38,598
And the amazing thing about the power law is that it's not a model you're trying to superimpose on top of Bitcoin, right?

357
00:29:38,598 --> 00:29:41,278
It's just an observation of what it's done over time.

358
00:29:41,478 --> 00:29:43,658
And it all just it lines up on a log-a-log chart.

359
00:29:43,798 --> 00:29:44,358
It's a straight line.

360
00:29:44,538 --> 00:29:46,698
And so that's what makes it what it is, correct?

361
00:29:47,218 --> 00:29:47,778
That's correct.

362
00:29:48,878 --> 00:29:50,958
There's a foundation for it.

363
00:29:51,538 --> 00:29:53,898
Actually, the foundation itself is multilayered.

364
00:29:53,898 --> 00:29:59,998
and it's the way that a system like this evolves

365
00:29:59,998 --> 00:30:04,198
because it is controlled from within.

366
00:30:04,758 --> 00:30:06,198
It has all its own rules.

367
00:30:07,278 --> 00:30:09,778
An analogy would be the cell.

368
00:30:10,698 --> 00:30:13,318
A cell will take resources in through the cell wall

369
00:30:13,318 --> 00:30:16,158
but then once those are inside the cell wall,

370
00:30:16,158 --> 00:30:19,798
the DNA and the RNA decides what happens.

371
00:30:20,558 --> 00:30:26,738
So it is self-creating, self-managing, self-regulating inside that environment.

372
00:30:26,858 --> 00:30:28,358
For Bitcoin, it takes in energy.

373
00:30:29,058 --> 00:30:30,718
It uses that for computation.

374
00:30:31,018 --> 00:30:34,298
So, you know, it consumes hash rate, if you will.

375
00:30:35,178 --> 00:30:37,458
But once it does that, all the rules are set.

376
00:30:37,678 --> 00:30:48,478
You know, the difficulty adjustment determines and provides negative feedback and regulation for the way hash rate gets applied in order to keep the blocks at 10 minutes.

377
00:30:48,478 --> 00:30:52,178
If you didn't keep it at 10 minutes, the network would fall apart.

378
00:30:52,278 --> 00:31:01,778
You would lose temporal synchronization because the hash rate has gone up, or the difficulty has gone up from 1 to 100 trillion.

379
00:31:02,198 --> 00:31:03,998
That's 14 orders of magnitude, right?

380
00:31:04,338 --> 00:31:10,918
So you needed some way to regulate the growth and stabilize it all the way.

381
00:31:10,998 --> 00:31:15,058
And there are other stabilization mechanisms and feedback loops.

382
00:31:15,458 --> 00:31:18,058
And that's why you end up manifesting.

383
00:31:18,478 --> 00:31:25,398
the main question i get there it's the most one of the most interesting arguments around how

384
00:31:25,398 --> 00:31:31,218
bitcoin's alive and it's like a cell manages and creates and replicates itself i i can't get my

385
00:31:31,218 --> 00:31:35,378
head around or buy into that it's like do you think it's regulating its own price in dollar

386
00:31:35,378 --> 00:31:42,478
terms because of its it knows how much energy it's taking in and there's some sort of law of

387
00:31:42,478 --> 00:31:50,478
nature this power like that this power law is a law of nature somehow well i think you know if you

388
00:31:50,478 --> 00:31:55,958
what i like to frame it i think of the power law is the way natural systems exist right so if you

389
00:31:55,958 --> 00:32:03,998
think of like a tree growing in nature it's taking in resources sun water nutrients from soil and

390
00:32:03,998 --> 00:32:11,738
it's going to grow x amount in a bad environment it could it could actually you know have a hard

391
00:32:11,738 --> 00:32:18,758
time growing at all. And in a fertile environment, it could grow very rapidly. So what are the

392
00:32:18,758 --> 00:32:29,178
inputs to Bitcoin? The inputs are energy, people, people's beliefs, adoption. Is it

393
00:32:29,178 --> 00:32:39,418
more use cases evolving? So this is kind of like the phases of adoption that Trace Mayer pointed

394
00:32:39,418 --> 00:32:43,838
out early on, right? Going through these, I forget what they were called, six or seven

395
00:32:43,838 --> 00:32:51,918
network effects. Network effects, right? So I think I agree that the power law is a great way

396
00:32:51,918 --> 00:32:59,898
to measure Bitcoin, but it doesn't mean that you should just anticipate that it's all inevitable.

397
00:32:59,898 --> 00:33:04,418
because if you cut Bitcoin's resources off,

398
00:33:05,058 --> 00:33:09,358
you convince the world it's a risk.

399
00:33:09,838 --> 00:33:12,598
You stop printing fiat.

400
00:33:13,218 --> 00:33:16,058
Then you won't get the growth in the network

401
00:33:16,058 --> 00:33:17,238
that you had anticipated.

402
00:33:18,258 --> 00:33:19,658
It'll still be alive.

403
00:33:19,978 --> 00:33:20,938
It could still be growing.

404
00:33:22,158 --> 00:33:24,018
The power law can turn down.

405
00:33:24,018 --> 00:33:27,018
The power law over time can turn down.

406
00:33:27,018 --> 00:33:31,018
the whole band can turn down, right?

407
00:33:31,358 --> 00:33:32,838
And then go back up.

408
00:33:32,918 --> 00:33:35,938
It doesn't have to just go up constantly.

409
00:33:36,938 --> 00:33:40,718
So to me, I think it points to,

410
00:33:40,798 --> 00:33:42,178
it's a great way to measure Bitcoin.

411
00:33:42,578 --> 00:33:45,818
I think it's very much the most impressive model

412
00:33:45,818 --> 00:33:46,918
we have of Bitcoin,

413
00:33:47,618 --> 00:33:50,338
but we have to constantly feed

414
00:33:50,338 --> 00:33:53,818
and take care of the inputs,

415
00:33:55,198 --> 00:33:56,538
nurture the inputs to Bitcoin

416
00:33:56,538 --> 00:34:02,378
to make sure that it continues to thrive so yeah i think about thriving go back to the plant example

417
00:34:02,378 --> 00:34:07,338
like some plants don't like terrible environment they never take off the seed dies some plants

418
00:34:07,338 --> 00:34:11,978
they grow too fast and it's actually maybe not great for the plant and then a hurricane comes

419
00:34:11,978 --> 00:34:17,418
over yeah right it's not strong enough or it just kills itself it topples over it just kind of feeds

420
00:34:17,418 --> 00:34:22,858
itself too much maybe like a human becomes obese or something the humans obviously can kind of

421
00:34:22,858 --> 00:34:26,218
to self-regulate say i don't want to eat too much i want to be the healthiest version of myself

422
00:34:27,018 --> 00:34:33,178
does bitcoin like maybe through the hive mind through some sort of consciousness or intelligence

423
00:34:33,178 --> 00:34:38,938
like ai understand its inputs its outputs and say i don't want to grow too fast you're going to sound

424
00:34:38,938 --> 00:34:43,738
like idiots when you talk about me you know i don't want more energy right now than i can no i

425
00:34:43,738 --> 00:34:52,698
i think it's a it's it's the one and the only free markets on the planet and um therefore human nature

426
00:34:52,858 --> 00:35:01,158
and our engagement with this protocol dictate its network effects and its growth.

427
00:35:02,178 --> 00:35:10,138
So we essentially humans are the most important input to this entire system.

428
00:35:12,138 --> 00:35:16,898
And if you were to project future price in dollars, which is not,

429
00:35:17,438 --> 00:35:19,838
maybe, you know, it's not as financial advice, but like,

430
00:35:19,838 --> 00:35:29,258
is there some sort of theory that you subscribe to that is more predictive than others if things go

431
00:35:29,258 --> 00:35:36,118
the way you would think i mean obviously things could break higher or lower based on unknown i

432
00:35:36,118 --> 00:35:42,778
guess i i think the we price for the most part we're pricing bitcoin in dollars right so it's

433
00:35:42,778 --> 00:35:47,198
related to the amount of dollars in the system just like just like many assets in the world right

434
00:35:47,198 --> 00:35:49,378
So global liquidity has a big impact on the price of Bitcoin.

435
00:35:50,798 --> 00:36:01,498
That being said, what that doesn't show you is what is the price of Bitcoin or what is the purchasing power that Bitcoin delivers.

436
00:36:02,258 --> 00:36:05,918
So I've always said you could see the price of Bitcoin go down.

437
00:36:06,558 --> 00:36:16,098
But in a deflationary crisis where the price of assets are also going down, resources are going down, then you're maintaining your purchasing power even though the price of Bitcoin is going down.

438
00:36:16,098 --> 00:36:18,178
Right. Or maybe even increasing.

439
00:36:18,418 --> 00:36:19,518
Maybe even increasing.

440
00:36:19,838 --> 00:36:22,638
Right. There's so many vectors here in planes to look at this.

441
00:36:22,838 --> 00:36:28,098
Yep. So you can't just say, okay, Bitcoin went to 125. Now it's a 68. It's failed.

442
00:36:28,978 --> 00:36:35,798
Right. The measurement of the price is not the failure of the network.

443
00:36:36,538 --> 00:36:40,118
So, and I think what power law is measuring

444
00:36:40,118 --> 00:36:42,258
is just, you know,

445
00:36:43,218 --> 00:36:46,758
the network's growth looking like

446
00:36:46,758 --> 00:36:50,918
a natural growth environment.

447
00:36:50,998 --> 00:36:52,458
Do you see an environment where,

448
00:36:53,698 --> 00:36:54,878
when I say United States government here,

449
00:36:54,938 --> 00:36:56,858
I mean, the people who try to manage interest rates

450
00:36:56,858 --> 00:36:58,898
and inflation and the economy,

451
00:36:59,818 --> 00:37:01,298
let's use the name Kevin Warsh,

452
00:37:01,638 --> 00:37:04,078
where he says, you know, I'm not a fan of Bitcoin,

453
00:37:04,178 --> 00:37:05,378
but I could see Bitcoin as,

454
00:37:05,798 --> 00:37:13,318
as a canary in the coal mine or like a thermometer up for the fed for the dollar and i want to

455
00:37:13,318 --> 00:37:18,978
not managing i i'm gonna steer the price with paper bitcoin but like i would like for the price

456
00:37:18,978 --> 00:37:23,918
not to go exponential right so it shows that we're doing a good job over here i think that's an act

457
00:37:23,918 --> 00:37:34,278
i think that's a fair assessment because if by some miracle this year the u.s government got its

458
00:37:34,278 --> 00:37:40,398
debt to GDP down to 30, 40, 50% and deficits were wiped out.

459
00:37:40,398 --> 00:37:43,758
And we're manufacturing in the United States and everybody's

460
00:37:43,758 --> 00:37:48,438
applied and we're economically stable and growing and we're not

461
00:37:48,618 --> 00:37:50,118
just compounding our debt.

462
00:37:51,138 --> 00:38:04,556
I think in that environment the average person would be like but why do I need Bitcoin Right Whereas when debt spiraling out of control when we going from crisis to crisis

463
00:38:05,136 --> 00:38:09,696
they're going to keep printing money. We get more inflation. You're going to increase the

464
00:38:09,696 --> 00:38:16,996
adoption of Bitcoin. Right. So that's, those are kind of the nutrients that feed the Bitcoin plant.

465
00:38:16,996 --> 00:38:26,476
Right. And so so that in that regard, the way he's talking about it, if that's an accurate assessment, the way he's talking about it kind of makes sense to me.

466
00:38:26,476 --> 00:38:31,716
Right. As like a barometer. Oh, this this thing's growing like mad. We're doing something wrong.

467
00:38:32,556 --> 00:38:40,316
Right. Yeah. Yeah. And a way to sort of. But, you know, that's all a matter of perspective as well, because you could say, hey, we're doing better.

468
00:38:40,316 --> 00:38:44,976
bitcoin's going down but bitcoin could do a 3x and they could say look we printed 5x the supply

469
00:38:44,976 --> 00:38:48,976
of money and bitcoin's only at 210 we think we're doing that that shows we're doing great

470
00:38:48,976 --> 00:38:53,656
i mean it's how they want to read it also i know we're going to talk about this but it's the same

471
00:38:53,656 --> 00:38:59,016
thing that they've tried to they've done to gold for many many years right is every time gold would

472
00:38:59,016 --> 00:39:04,256
stick its head up like things aren't right they come in and hammer it down with derivatives

473
00:39:04,256 --> 00:39:10,456
and uh we know now that they're playing those you know we have proof we've always suspected we have

474
00:39:10,456 --> 00:39:16,456
proof now that those games have been being played and so um you know this is starving the plant of

475
00:39:16,456 --> 00:39:21,356
nutrients this is like every time it grows just cut cut the branches off just keep hacking at the

476
00:39:21,356 --> 00:39:26,116
branches right and uh hopefully bitcoin's getting thicker and denser and the stocks are getting

477
00:39:26,116 --> 00:39:30,656
thicker and denser and eventually it's just going to burst through it um but you know they're they're

478
00:39:30,656 --> 00:39:36,136
actively trying to prune the growth of the network because it is the canary in the coal mine. It's

479
00:39:36,136 --> 00:39:41,856
the signal to everybody, you should adopt this. And the faster people adopt this, the faster it

480
00:39:41,856 --> 00:39:48,256
kills the fiat system. So the war on Bitcoin never ended. The war on Bitcoin, like when Trump became

481
00:39:48,256 --> 00:39:54,036
president and said, congratulations, Bitcoiners, that doesn't mean the war was over. The war is

482
00:39:54,036 --> 00:40:00,216
Bitcoin's constantly under attack. We're going to keep fighting this war and we have to push

483
00:40:00,216 --> 00:40:04,296
push forward and we have to keep nurturing this network. You can't,

484
00:40:04,836 --> 00:40:07,916
you're not going to get all the benefits out of Bitcoin.

485
00:40:08,096 --> 00:40:11,856
If you just sit on the sidelines and wait for it to do something for you.

486
00:40:12,216 --> 00:40:14,616
It's not, it's not what you can do for everyone.

487
00:40:14,956 --> 00:40:17,216
What Bitcoin can do for you is what can you do for Bitcoin, right?

488
00:40:18,016 --> 00:40:20,516
I think when you start thinking about it that way though, you start,

489
00:40:20,916 --> 00:40:24,316
you obviously let's think about the price and the exchange ratio.

490
00:40:24,356 --> 00:40:27,576
And you just think about it as your savings or your money and you use it when

491
00:40:27,576 --> 00:40:29,156
you need it and you save it when you can.

492
00:40:30,216 --> 00:40:33,756
You know, but Bitcoiners, Bitcoin companies are still under attack.

493
00:40:34,036 --> 00:40:34,076
Yeah.

494
00:40:34,976 --> 00:40:38,516
You know, and Bitcoiners are still under attack.

495
00:40:38,676 --> 00:40:42,416
Keone Rodriguez is still in prison for writing code.

496
00:40:43,176 --> 00:40:44,896
Let's move on to the lightning rounds.

497
00:40:45,676 --> 00:40:48,716
This is Bitcoin Center, episode 43, brought to you by Byte Federal.

498
00:40:48,876 --> 00:40:49,596
Go bank yourself.

499
00:40:49,736 --> 00:40:50,936
Please hit like and subscribe.

500
00:40:51,216 --> 00:40:55,336
Go to your local Byte Federal ATM and put your cash in there.

501
00:40:55,536 --> 00:40:57,116
Put your cash and buy some Bitcoin, baby.

502
00:40:57,116 --> 00:41:01,336
Then you have the Byte Federal wallet and the Byte Federal self-custody wallet.

503
00:41:01,356 --> 00:41:06,736
If cash is not your thing, go ahead and download our Byte wallet, hook up your bank account, smash buy Bitcoin.

504
00:41:06,916 --> 00:41:09,116
Smash buy right there on the Byte Federal.

505
00:41:09,316 --> 00:41:09,936
You got it.

506
00:41:10,856 --> 00:41:11,196
All right.

507
00:41:11,336 --> 00:41:12,156
Let's go to the next round.

508
00:41:12,316 --> 00:41:16,816
I think Jane Street has been exposed, Peruvian bull.

509
00:41:17,016 --> 00:41:21,416
Roberto Rodriguez, next guest on Bitcoin Matrix, just wrote a great piece about this.

510
00:41:21,416 --> 00:41:30,856
Do you think that, you know, let's say this is happening and Jane Street, they are an authorized participant on the Bitcoin ETF.

511
00:41:31,016 --> 00:41:32,676
So they see the order flow, the deal flow.

512
00:41:32,896 --> 00:41:36,476
They don't have, first it was cash settled.

513
00:41:36,596 --> 00:41:37,796
Now it's not even cash settled.

514
00:41:37,956 --> 00:41:41,576
It's BTC in kind, which gives them even more flexibility.

515
00:41:42,116 --> 00:41:42,196
Yeah.

516
00:41:42,796 --> 00:41:45,676
Do you think that they are pushing the price around?

517
00:41:46,516 --> 00:41:46,936
Yeah, absolutely.

518
00:41:46,936 --> 00:41:55,116
I think firms like Jane Street don't really care what asset they're trading.

519
00:41:55,316 --> 00:42:00,276
They're just looking for opportunities that they can apply pressure and then extract profits from.

520
00:42:01,276 --> 00:42:05,336
And I think the Bitcoin ETF gave them a significant opportunity.

521
00:42:06,056 --> 00:42:08,356
And the Bitcoin treasury companies, right?

522
00:42:08,356 --> 00:42:16,656
Because they could lever up with derivatives on top of MicroStrategy, which is a levered Bitcoin play, right?

523
00:42:16,656 --> 00:42:27,856
So they have the tools in a thinly traded market with global arbitrage where they can take advantage of this system.

524
00:42:29,916 --> 00:42:34,856
What I think people might be conflating is this idea that they're breaking the law.

525
00:42:36,016 --> 00:42:42,776
And that's why you see them going after insider trading on the Terra Luna deal.

526
00:42:42,936 --> 00:42:43,476
Was it Terra Luna?

527
00:42:43,896 --> 00:42:44,636
Yeah, Terra Luna.

528
00:42:44,636 --> 00:42:49,916
yeah right they're going after them for insider trading if there wasn't inside information

529
00:42:51,916 --> 00:42:56,716
what they did would not necessarily be illegal right like what they're doing with the bitcoin

530
00:42:56,716 --> 00:43:04,076
etf and and and treasury companies and spot bitcoin it's as far as i could tell not illegal

531
00:43:04,876 --> 00:43:09,916
right they're just they're just it's they are big enough to be able to push markets around and take

532
00:43:09,916 --> 00:43:16,876
advantage of smaller traders so i think that it's it's against if i do share your responsibility

533
00:43:16,876 --> 00:43:22,316
why do they have fiduciary i'm not saying they i i think people are i think as an author they're

534
00:43:22,316 --> 00:43:27,356
trading their own money right yeah but as an authorized participant i think there's the

535
00:43:27,356 --> 00:43:32,076
consumer thinks that when they go to buy the bitcoin etf that bitcoin is being purchased to

536
00:43:32,636 --> 00:43:38,156
right that spot right and and i don't think that's what jane street is doing no not at all right and

537
00:43:38,156 --> 00:43:40,756
And so I don't think what they're doing may not be illegal.

538
00:43:40,976 --> 00:43:42,616
They're buying and selling the ETF.

539
00:43:42,856 --> 00:43:43,936
They're buying and selling spot.

540
00:43:44,076 --> 00:43:57,256
And they're running derivatives contracts on top of those and across the treasury companies in order to push the market in a direction and then rip off, rip out the capital so that it'll drop so that their derivative positions will make 10 times more money.

541
00:43:57,656 --> 00:44:03,096
So they are manipulating markets at a large scale.

542
00:44:04,736 --> 00:44:07,216
But is that breaking the law?

543
00:44:07,456 --> 00:44:07,556
Right.

544
00:44:07,556 --> 00:44:08,856
I hear what you're saying.

545
00:44:09,096 --> 00:44:10,416
And it might not be lawful.

546
00:44:10,796 --> 00:44:12,096
It might not be illegal, though.

547
00:44:12,716 --> 00:44:14,196
And maybe it's not moral.

548
00:44:14,436 --> 00:44:14,716
Maybe not.

549
00:44:14,716 --> 00:44:19,756
But I'm also not crying in my milk over this, the expression.

550
00:44:20,056 --> 00:44:23,616
But because I feel like Wall Street's in the game.

551
00:44:24,356 --> 00:44:26,276
This is what Wall Street does.

552
00:44:28,356 --> 00:44:31,436
You know, not your keys, not your market price.

553
00:44:31,816 --> 00:44:32,076
Yep.

554
00:44:32,836 --> 00:44:34,416
Not your Wall Street price.

555
00:44:34,596 --> 00:44:35,076
Yeah, exactly.

556
00:44:35,076 --> 00:44:39,076
And we just have to sort of fight through this in terms of...

557
00:44:39,076 --> 00:44:42,336
Well, this is what a lot of the OGs have been worried about, right?

558
00:44:42,436 --> 00:44:48,636
Is that why many of them were unhappy with the Wall Streetization of Bitcoin.

559
00:44:49,876 --> 00:44:51,416
But I don't think there's anybody around it.

560
00:44:51,576 --> 00:44:52,356
No, sure.

561
00:44:53,236 --> 00:44:54,696
It's Trace Mayer's network effect.

562
00:44:54,816 --> 00:44:57,956
You have to have financialization in order to get to the next level.

563
00:44:58,176 --> 00:45:02,556
But getting through that gauntlet isn't going to be comfortable.

564
00:45:02,556 --> 00:45:14,556
So like when you IPO, right, and you come out and you're up 200% and then Wall Street fucking hammers you for two years before you start an uptrend again, right?

565
00:45:15,976 --> 00:45:19,096
Like this is a, these are common tactics, right?

566
00:45:19,336 --> 00:45:24,136
You know, it'd be interesting to measure when you say like Bitcoiners didn't want this.

567
00:45:25,056 --> 00:45:27,176
Maybe the earliest the Bitcoiners didn't want it.

568
00:45:27,236 --> 00:45:28,976
And I wonder how much wealth they have in Bitcoin.

569
00:45:29,136 --> 00:45:30,856
I'm counting it in Bitcoin denominated.

570
00:45:30,856 --> 00:45:36,576
but new Bitcoiners, and I'm not saying, not maybe the ethos, but people who are buying the ETF and

571
00:45:36,576 --> 00:45:43,976
buying Bitcoin since are very much comfortable with Wall Street buying Bitcoin. And I don't

572
00:45:43,976 --> 00:45:49,416
think it's something that we can kind of avoid. No, I'm not saying we can avoid. I'm not saying

573
00:45:49,416 --> 00:45:54,036
we have to avoid. I'm not saying Wall Street shouldn't have Bitcoin. All I'm saying is that

574
00:45:54,036 --> 00:46:01,976
this was we were warned about this right we were warned about financialization of bitcoin that it

575
00:46:01,976 --> 00:46:06,576
wasn't going to be oh it's not going to pump your bags yes right right no they want to take your

576
00:46:06,576 --> 00:46:12,416
bags they're not going to pump your bags until their bags are full right how do they fill their

577
00:46:12,416 --> 00:46:17,196
bags they scare you to shit they do like when you're petrified and you no longer around this

578
00:46:17,196 --> 00:46:22,296
thing then their bags will be full and then the story will change and the momentum will change

579
00:46:22,296 --> 00:46:29,656
and everything will shift. This is the way finance has worked as long as I've seen it,

580
00:46:30,216 --> 00:46:36,296
as long as I've been involved in it. And the drawdowns in Bitcoin can be significant. So it's

581
00:46:36,296 --> 00:46:45,816
painful, which works in their favor. But I think somebody like Jane Street, they don't have any

582
00:46:47,416 --> 00:46:51,096
care whether Bitcoin succeeds or not. They're just looking at this as,

583
00:46:51,096 --> 00:46:55,416
here's a market i can move here's a market i could take advantage of and i can extract

584
00:46:55,416 --> 00:47:02,696
wealth from right but what i found interesting about roberto's piece was the tara luna collapse

585
00:47:02,696 --> 00:47:08,776
uh that wiped out 40 billion in value and it set off a chain reaction that eventually took down

586
00:47:08,776 --> 00:47:16,376
celsius three arrows capital and ftx but this all all of us were doing fraud celsius i don't know

587
00:47:16,376 --> 00:47:22,696
know about three hours but celsius and ftx were involved in fraud and that this fraud was on

588
00:47:22,696 --> 00:47:30,536
unraveled by what appears to be 250 million in drawdowns right so it's incredible how little

589
00:47:30,536 --> 00:47:36,656
liquidity being pulled especially when that happened at near the bottom of a bear market

590
00:47:36,656 --> 00:47:44,636
right so they the liquidity was super thin and they could really swing a bat but you know again

591
00:47:44,636 --> 00:47:52,916
if they had if they had taken advantage of this moment without the insider trading information

592
00:47:52,916 --> 00:48:01,116
about the structure of ust right and the problems that were happening at tara luna

593
00:48:01,116 --> 00:48:06,196
if they didn't have the inside information would they have been able to pull this big

594
00:48:06,196 --> 00:48:13,616
trade off and that that's where the lawsuit is from what i understand is is looking i'm not so

595
00:48:13,616 --> 00:48:15,696
certain. I'm reading this right now. You read

596
00:48:15,696 --> 00:48:17,776
it from like my, in your analog mind,

597
00:48:17,836 --> 00:48:19,496
you're like, the lawsuit

598
00:48:19,496 --> 00:48:21,616
alleges that a former Terraform intern

599
00:48:21,616 --> 00:48:23,576
named Bryce Parratt, who joined Jane

600
00:48:23,576 --> 00:48:24,636
Street as a full-time employee,

601
00:48:24,916 --> 00:48:27,576
established a back channel. The piece that's

602
00:48:27,576 --> 00:48:29,756
interesting here is, okay, on May 7th

603
00:48:29,756 --> 00:48:31,556
of 2022, Terraform

604
00:48:31,556 --> 00:48:33,316
Labs quietly withdrew $150 million.

605
00:48:34,416 --> 00:48:35,156
I think quietly

606
00:48:35,156 --> 00:48:37,396
is an opinion here.

607
00:48:37,896 --> 00:48:39,656
Because, you know, it says a major decentralized

608
00:48:39,656 --> 00:48:41,556
liquidity pool. No public

609
00:48:41,556 --> 00:48:43,356
announcement, just a silent pool of liquidity.

610
00:48:43,616 --> 00:48:50,196
10 minutes later, a wallet linked to Jane Street withdrew $85 million from the same pool.

611
00:48:51,136 --> 00:48:58,056
So the big harp on $10 million, and I think there's the notion that the intern DMs somebody.

612
00:48:58,876 --> 00:49:03,496
This could be automated, though, through machine learning or any sort of code.

613
00:49:03,596 --> 00:49:03,836
Sure.

614
00:49:04,296 --> 00:49:05,996
My wallet, watch your wallet.

615
00:49:06,316 --> 00:49:06,596
Yep.

616
00:49:07,036 --> 00:49:10,916
Withdrawal X, I withdraw Y, or X divided by two.

617
00:49:10,916 --> 00:49:11,276
Sure.

618
00:49:11,276 --> 00:49:18,796
and it's 10 minutes is slow no yeah i mean i mean for high frequency traders so i'm not so sure that

619
00:49:18,796 --> 00:49:25,356
it's even inside knowledge as much as i know which wallet to watch could be you know and so i guess

620
00:49:25,356 --> 00:49:30,236
we're going to find out right but there is this sort of then there was the coincidence of there's

621
00:49:30,236 --> 00:49:37,116
just been this 10 a.m slam and that seems to have gone away again doesn't mean that it's jane street

622
00:49:37,116 --> 00:49:41,196
doing but if it's another firm doing it and jane street come the news breaks about jane street

623
00:49:41,276 --> 00:49:46,916
and they just don't want the other firm pulls out there you know a lot of assumptions here yeah but

624
00:49:46,916 --> 00:49:50,916
i think all this is par for the course and yeah and i don't know was there anything in there about

625
00:49:50,916 --> 00:49:58,716
naked short selling there i didn't see anything about that um which goes on all the time and is

626
00:49:58,716 --> 00:50:05,376
supposedly illegal right so there's a lot of things that happen in the trading world that

627
00:50:05,376 --> 00:50:07,016
are ruthless.

628
00:50:07,496 --> 00:50:08,396
It's a war.

629
00:50:08,556 --> 00:50:09,276
It's a battle.

630
00:50:10,196 --> 00:50:12,156
Everybody's out to make themselves money.

631
00:50:12,276 --> 00:50:13,276
And the only way you make money

632
00:50:13,276 --> 00:50:14,456
is by taking it from other people.

633
00:50:15,936 --> 00:50:17,756
So it's a ruthless game.

634
00:50:18,316 --> 00:50:20,536
There's the end of every trade.

635
00:50:20,656 --> 00:50:21,896
There's one winner and there's one loser.

636
00:50:22,556 --> 00:50:26,736
So you've got to understand

637
00:50:26,736 --> 00:50:28,096
the way that system works

638
00:50:28,096 --> 00:50:30,056
and it is going to be applied against Bitcoin.

639
00:50:30,156 --> 00:50:32,596
The only way it doesn't get applied

640
00:50:32,596 --> 00:50:34,276
is if everybody's in self-custom.

641
00:50:34,276 --> 00:50:34,516
Right.

642
00:50:34,516 --> 00:50:35,516
Right.

643
00:50:35,516 --> 00:50:40,976
But the fact that everybody is now moving into these securitized structures that hold

644
00:50:40,976 --> 00:50:49,016
Bitcoin on their behalf opens us up to more easily being attacked.

645
00:50:49,456 --> 00:50:49,576
Right.

646
00:50:49,836 --> 00:50:54,116
I mean, which is all pros and cons of how you custody secure your Bitcoin.

647
00:50:54,316 --> 00:50:55,116
That's personal.

648
00:50:55,596 --> 00:50:55,676
Yeah.

649
00:50:55,876 --> 00:51:01,436
But I do agree with you 100% that if everyone withdrew into self-custody, we take so much,

650
00:51:01,436 --> 00:51:04,376
Maybe not 100% of the power away, but close to it.

651
00:51:04,376 --> 00:51:06,676
What was Trace's deal every January one?

652
00:51:06,956 --> 00:51:07,476
Proof of keys.

653
00:51:07,616 --> 00:51:08,216
Proof of keys.

654
00:51:08,356 --> 00:51:10,696
I mean, it was such an awesome, awesome trend.

655
00:51:10,976 --> 00:51:11,836
And I loved it.

656
00:51:12,716 --> 00:51:17,956
It helped train me to, every year, remove my coins and get them in self-custody.

657
00:51:19,536 --> 00:51:24,256
And, you know, we've lost that ethos.

658
00:51:24,896 --> 00:51:24,996
Yeah.

659
00:51:25,336 --> 00:51:25,936
I mean, not all of us.

660
00:51:25,936 --> 00:51:26,516
I think it'll come back.

661
00:51:26,756 --> 00:51:27,256
It'll come back.

662
00:51:27,256 --> 00:51:30,656
Especially a lot of the new people that just want exposure.

663
00:51:31,436 --> 00:51:34,276
Their advisor said you need some exposure.

664
00:51:35,076 --> 00:51:40,136
And they're not, they're not truly taking self, they're not taking self custody and they don't truly own Bitcoin.

665
00:51:40,136 --> 00:51:41,196
It's not a vector for them or a notion.

666
00:51:41,656 --> 00:51:41,856
Yeah.

667
00:51:41,856 --> 00:51:54,636
So, so it's, you know, but, you know, over time, the diehard, died in the wool Bitcoiners that take coins to self custody will accumulate more and more and more and more.

668
00:51:54,956 --> 00:51:55,316
Right.

669
00:51:55,636 --> 00:51:58,696
And some of those entities are going to be very, very large entities.

670
00:51:58,696 --> 00:52:03,976
so you know back to you know we say a lot of ogs warned us about the financialization of bitcoin but

671
00:52:03,976 --> 00:52:12,696
the the new g's came with their cash yeah and like buy bitcoin for me yeah i mean in yeah high fervor

672
00:52:12,696 --> 00:52:17,096
yeah uh so for everyone poo-pooing it or saying like they weren't i mean like didn't right on

673
00:52:17,096 --> 00:52:26,696
but also a lot of the um volume in these treasury companies and etfs were also prop trading firms

674
00:52:26,696 --> 00:52:29,656
that wanted to be able to move these markets

675
00:52:29,656 --> 00:52:31,316
in a way that they could benefit.

676
00:52:31,436 --> 00:52:32,596
Like they want to have spot,

677
00:52:32,716 --> 00:52:33,496
they want to have derivatives,

678
00:52:33,576 --> 00:52:35,256
they want to have all the different buckets

679
00:52:35,256 --> 00:52:37,336
so they can play them off of each other

680
00:52:37,336 --> 00:52:38,316
and extract value.

681
00:52:39,156 --> 00:52:40,616
And the securitization of Bitcoin

682
00:52:40,616 --> 00:52:42,596
is just aided in their ability to do that.

683
00:52:43,016 --> 00:52:43,096
Right.

684
00:52:44,216 --> 00:52:44,816
All right.

685
00:52:45,276 --> 00:52:46,916
Let's change gears a little bit here.

686
00:52:46,916 --> 00:52:48,396
Let's play this Luke Broyles clip

687
00:52:48,396 --> 00:52:50,556
from adopting Bitcoin conference.

688
00:52:51,276 --> 00:52:54,816
If we were to price all the Bitcoin in the world

689
00:52:54,816 --> 00:52:56,616
with oil,

690
00:52:56,696 --> 00:53:03,616
right? If we were to have Bitcoin be the unit of account with just oil, forget real estate,

691
00:53:03,916 --> 00:53:07,876
forget fine art, forget stocks, forget bonds, forget all fiat money, forget every other commodity

692
00:53:07,876 --> 00:53:20,596
or security on the planet. Just oil is 1,272 satoshis for every barrel of oil. And that means,

693
00:53:20,596 --> 00:53:27,216
Again, we're getting every other asset in the world. If you own one Bitcoin, you effectively

694
00:53:27,216 --> 00:53:35,836
own the oil equivalent of 78,616 barrels. If you got 10 Bitcoin, congrats, you have 780,000 barrels

695
00:53:35,836 --> 00:53:40,576
of oil. If you have a tenth of a Bitcoin, congrats, you got 7,800 barrels of oil, right? My point is,

696
00:53:41,156 --> 00:53:47,136
if this game theory accelerates, if these four nations in the next 12 months do come out and

697
00:53:47,136 --> 00:53:52,616
publicly acknowledge their strategic reserves, I think that we can begin to start talking about

698
00:53:52,616 --> 00:53:59,376
this idea of pricing oil in terms of Bitcoin, just like Putin himself described. And so my point is,

699
00:53:59,916 --> 00:54:04,416
it might feel like it's too late for Bitcoin, because the number has gone up a lot, right? I

700
00:54:04,416 --> 00:54:08,056
mean, it's up, what, 20, 30% the last few days alone, right? Like, it might feel like it's too

701
00:54:08,056 --> 00:54:13,416
late. But just like I said at the beginning of the talk regarding Manhattan, it's actually the

702
00:54:13,416 --> 00:54:18,136
inverse. If anything, you're too early. If anything, you are going to be remembered as this crazy,

703
00:54:18,216 --> 00:54:22,416
crazy person that was somehow in Bitcoin before we started pricing at oil. Can you imagine how

704
00:54:22,416 --> 00:54:26,376
much purchasing power they have, right? So my encouragement is stop looking at Bitcoin in terms

705
00:54:26,376 --> 00:54:32,556
of random numbers, a random price, or a random number of Satoshis. Think about that reality that

706
00:54:32,556 --> 00:54:37,776
the average person will probably have less than 50,000 Satoshis if Bitcoin becomes a global medium

707
00:54:37,776 --> 00:54:43,196
of account, not medium of account, unit of account, medium of exchange. And think of it in terms of

708
00:54:43,196 --> 00:54:47,356
barrels of oil, right? Think of your Bitcoin stack. And whenever you feel like I'm too late,

709
00:54:47,416 --> 00:54:51,756
I'm too late. I don't have enough. It's not worth a lot. Think of it in terms of barrels of oil. How

710
00:54:51,756 --> 00:54:57,256
many barrels of oil do you own? So like I said, it feels like it's too late because there's lots of

711
00:54:57,256 --> 00:55:00,936
people in here in Bitcoin that have been around longer than you, that have bought more Bitcoin

712
00:55:00,936 --> 00:55:04,936
than you, that have read more Bitcoin books and listened to more Bitcoin podcasts than you,

713
00:55:04,996 --> 00:55:09,536
all that stuff, right? So it might feel like you're too late. But my encouragement is right now,

714
00:55:09,536 --> 00:55:14,856
we disproportionately have a lot of whole coiner friends, multi whole coiner friends, right?

715
00:55:15,536 --> 00:55:21,276
Disproportionately, you know, again, we're in 1630s Manhattan, like everyone we know is super,

716
00:55:21,416 --> 00:55:25,836
super early to Bitcoin. And so therefore we're biased to think we're too late. We're actually,

717
00:55:25,936 --> 00:55:30,576
it's the opposite. Man, this clicker. Actually, it's the opposite. So on the screen here is a

718
00:55:30,576 --> 00:55:35,416
visual graphic of all the people in the world. That little guy at the top left, a fraction of

719
00:55:35,416 --> 00:55:41,216
that guy, one in a thousand, is all the whole coiners, and a fraction of that fraction is all

720
00:55:41,216 --> 00:55:46,636
the multi-whole coiners. So, I only got one Bitcoin, you're not too late. I only got five

721
00:55:46,636 --> 00:55:53,076
Bitcoin, you're not too late, right? This is my point. We're on the eve of nation-state adoption,

722
00:55:53,636 --> 00:55:59,276
right? We have less in common with the near future than the ancient past, right? For the entirety of

723
00:55:59,276 --> 00:56:05,256
Bitcoin's history. We've gone from zero to one, maybe two if you argue Bhutan, nation state

724
00:56:05,256 --> 00:56:11,796
adopters. Okay. Very soon we can have half a dozen within a year. What happens the year after that?

725
00:56:11,916 --> 00:56:16,256
What happens the year after that? Right? So again, don't compare yourself as to quote unquote,

726
00:56:16,456 --> 00:56:21,416
how early I am to Bitcoin based on your peer group today and all of our friends in this room,

727
00:56:21,416 --> 00:56:29,416
compare it to the graphic on what do you think do you think uh

728
00:56:29,936 --> 00:56:37,256
i mean is this new news is this i think this feels almost like old news in bitcoin world

729
00:56:37,256 --> 00:56:42,196
yeah to be honest but i think it's great for orange pilling if you're on your personal journey

730
00:56:42,196 --> 00:56:47,396
you come across sort of that way of thinking i think it sort of helps you enlarge your mindscape

731
00:56:47,396 --> 00:57:03,354
For me it still helps me remember how early we are and get optimistic and excited and bullish But I don think it something we going to do anytime soon as a society think in bitcoin terms i try to think is my unit of account i

732
00:57:03,354 --> 00:57:09,114
think that's a superpower i mean i do that often i'll price things in bitcoin on a chart yeah and

733
00:57:09,114 --> 00:57:14,634
then price them in dollars and price them in gold and see the difference right and um when you do

734
00:57:14,634 --> 00:57:21,434
that it's very eye-opening i i think that's super important for people new to bitcoin to hear yeah

735
00:57:22,154 --> 00:57:29,354
um and it is i think a proper way to think about bitcoin like what is what's the average or the

736
00:57:29,354 --> 00:57:33,754
medium price of a home priced in bitcoin what's the you know and how has that changed what's the

737
00:57:33,754 --> 00:57:38,474
price of oil in bitcoin how's that changed the price the sap in bitcoin etc price of gold in

738
00:57:38,474 --> 00:57:44,554
bitcoin that's an interesting chart right so um these things are these are all good ways for you

739
00:57:44,554 --> 00:57:51,034
to frame the true value that bitcoin is delivering to you as opposed to the price i paid and the

740
00:57:51,034 --> 00:57:57,514
price it's at today yeah i agree keep stacking stay humble stacks ads all right this is bitcoin

741
00:57:57,514 --> 00:58:02,234
center brought to you by by federal go bank yourself go to bitcoin atm by federal bitcoin atm

742
00:58:02,234 --> 00:58:07,194
put some cash in and get some Bitcoin, put it in self-custody.

743
00:58:07,574 --> 00:58:12,934
But, you know, talking about sort of self-custody, maybe OpenClaw and Bitcoin.

744
00:58:13,434 --> 00:58:15,254
Is open source winning again?

745
00:58:16,434 --> 00:58:22,094
What is, I mean, Gladstein's talking about how it's changing his life, it sounds like.

746
00:58:23,034 --> 00:58:26,134
You tell me you're using AI all the time.

747
00:58:26,134 --> 00:58:29,374
I'm not using OpenClaw, but we are using it.

748
00:58:29,374 --> 00:58:36,734
I mean, all of our developers are using clawed code and other AI resources.

749
00:58:38,974 --> 00:58:49,714
I think Gladstein was very accurate in regards to like you don't want to give these open source projects like unlimited access to all your data.

750
00:58:50,254 --> 00:58:51,454
You want to be careful there.

751
00:58:51,814 --> 00:58:57,374
But if you can build out a walled garden and bring your data into it, it's amazing what it can do.

752
00:58:58,094 --> 00:58:59,914
It's helped me a ton.

753
00:59:00,774 --> 00:59:02,454
It's helping the company a ton.

754
00:59:03,354 --> 00:59:05,094
And I think it's really interesting.

755
00:59:05,794 --> 00:59:08,034
I think it's going to be a very interesting future.

756
00:59:08,934 --> 00:59:10,434
Again, we have to build it.

757
00:59:11,614 --> 00:59:20,074
Because, you know, if you start to look at a lot of these AI projects that are driving stablecoins and utilizing stablecoins.

758
00:59:20,074 --> 00:59:34,594
So we really need to, as a community, start building with Lightning and Bitcoin in the AI infrastructure more aggressively, I think.

759
00:59:34,594 --> 00:59:37,734
I think, you know, Callie has been writing about this a lot.

760
00:59:38,874 --> 00:59:40,434
And I think he's right.

761
00:59:40,974 --> 00:59:44,994
We can't just sit back and be like, oh, AI is here.

762
00:59:45,114 --> 00:59:57,014
We won because there's a lot of developers that are incentivized to build AI with stable coins, shit coins, etc.

763
00:59:57,274 --> 01:00:00,034
So it's not just because AI is here, Bitcoin is one.

764
01:00:00,994 --> 01:00:04,474
We have to point the AI in the right direction.

765
01:00:04,474 --> 01:00:06,174
I think AI is going to be part of the battle.

766
01:00:06,334 --> 01:00:08,414
I think AI is going to be steered away from Bitcoin.

767
01:00:09,554 --> 01:00:11,794
And most of AI, I still think, is going to be centralized.

768
01:00:12,214 --> 01:00:16,454
It's going to be up to the sovereign community to build tools that benefit Bitcoin.

769
01:00:16,574 --> 01:00:21,394
And so that we can use those tools, those AI tools on Bitcoin in a safe and sovereign fashion.

770
01:00:22,414 --> 01:00:26,794
And so I think it has a potential to be very, very empowering for Bitcoiners.

771
01:00:28,214 --> 01:00:30,074
But we need to build what we want.

772
01:00:30,074 --> 01:00:32,494
we need to build what works for our community,

773
01:00:32,754 --> 01:00:40,074
not just wait for open AI to give us a stable coin AI interface.

774
01:00:40,914 --> 01:00:41,074
Right.

775
01:00:42,274 --> 01:00:44,054
Our X, like, you know, I mean,

776
01:00:44,614 --> 01:00:47,734
these things are all going to get dollar stable coins, right?

777
01:00:48,174 --> 01:00:52,514
The only way they're going to get Bitcoin and lightning is if we build it.

778
01:00:52,654 --> 01:00:52,774
Yeah.

779
01:00:53,834 --> 01:00:54,634
I agree.

780
01:00:54,914 --> 01:00:55,174
All right.

781
01:00:56,434 --> 01:00:58,874
Do you think AI is all roses though?

782
01:00:58,874 --> 01:00:59,474
I mean.

783
01:00:59,714 --> 01:01:00,054
All roses?

784
01:01:00,074 --> 01:01:01,834
Like I think it's part of the...

785
01:01:01,834 --> 01:01:04,994
All technology is good and evil.

786
01:01:05,254 --> 01:01:06,194
Depends who's using it.

787
01:01:06,994 --> 01:01:12,254
Do you think AI is going to have more of a positive impact on humanity?

788
01:01:12,874 --> 01:01:18,534
I think there'll be parts of humanity that use it to significantly improve their capability,

789
01:01:18,774 --> 01:01:23,734
their performance, their productivity, their ability to be sovereign.

790
01:01:23,734 --> 01:01:27,854
and then there will be probably a larger percentage of the world

791
01:01:27,854 --> 01:01:30,234
that just rolls over and says,

792
01:01:30,854 --> 01:01:33,614
what am I going to do now?

793
01:01:34,634 --> 01:01:34,754
Right?

794
01:01:34,954 --> 01:01:37,074
I mean, like, what, you know,

795
01:01:37,094 --> 01:01:40,934
could somebody please send me a check because I'm out of a job.

796
01:01:42,894 --> 01:01:45,754
You know, I mean, you take like what Block did recently, right?

797
01:01:45,774 --> 01:01:48,854
Laying off half of its workforce because of AI.

798
01:01:48,854 --> 01:01:49,254
Right.

799
01:01:49,254 --> 01:01:49,354
Right.

800
01:01:51,074 --> 01:01:56,854
Maybe 5% or 10% of those developers will go build something amazing.

801
01:01:57,054 --> 01:01:58,614
They got seven months severance.

802
01:01:58,854 --> 01:02:06,694
And in that seven months, they crank out some new AI, Bitcoin-related productivity tool that's amazing.

803
01:02:07,414 --> 01:02:11,134
And it changes the world for those that adopt it.

804
01:02:11,134 --> 01:02:20,154
the other 95% probably just find a job or go somewhere to go do something else or

805
01:02:20,154 --> 01:02:25,994
maybe don't work in Bitcoin anymore. And that's just the way this thing's going to evolve.

806
01:02:25,994 --> 01:02:35,194
I think the beauty is that we're going to see such an abundance of apps now. AI is going to

807
01:02:35,194 --> 01:02:43,114
facilitate an explosion in applications. So stuff where it wasn't economical before to write that

808
01:02:43,114 --> 01:02:50,414
app because it was 1% of the globe, the Bitcoiners that want it. Now they can do that. And so we can

809
01:02:50,414 --> 01:02:58,754
get at a very low cost tools that are built for our community that before wouldn't have been built

810
01:02:58,754 --> 01:03:02,574
because it didn't scale to the whole globe. Right. And so many of these tools that are built

811
01:03:02,574 --> 01:03:04,794
are going to be a response to some of the negative tools,

812
01:03:05,034 --> 01:03:07,274
things that are built with AI that we're going to be like,

813
01:03:07,334 --> 01:03:09,634
we need this now to defend ourselves.

814
01:03:09,854 --> 01:03:10,714
Right, exactly.

815
01:03:10,834 --> 01:03:13,294
So I think it's going to be super empowering.

816
01:03:14,814 --> 01:03:18,274
And you just have to look for the things that are going to,

817
01:03:18,574 --> 01:03:20,574
like you need to be aware and look for the things

818
01:03:20,574 --> 01:03:23,974
that are going to benefit your life and implement those things.

819
01:03:23,974 --> 01:03:24,274
Yeah.

820
01:03:25,414 --> 01:03:27,114
And don't adopt the rest.

821
01:03:27,434 --> 01:03:28,034
I hear you.

822
01:03:28,034 --> 01:03:32,654
Yeah. Arthur Hayes thinks the skirmish with Iran leads to money printing.

823
01:03:32,914 --> 01:03:38,754
Yeah, I saw that. I read that. I love what Arthur writes. I think that's a potential outcome.

824
01:03:39,334 --> 01:03:44,174
He hasn't even write too often on his financial predictions, if you will.

825
01:03:44,174 --> 01:03:48,814
I don't think he's batting near 100%. I think he's like maybe 20% or something like that.

826
01:03:48,894 --> 01:03:51,754
But I enjoy his writing. I think he's a character.

827
01:03:53,534 --> 01:03:57,594
You know, what is the old saying, right? Even a broken clock is twice a day.

828
01:03:57,594 --> 01:04:03,434
So, I mean, it's, look, we've been talking about the big print for so long.

829
01:04:06,294 --> 01:04:07,394
Hasn't happened yet.

830
01:04:08,074 --> 01:04:09,714
Doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

831
01:04:10,114 --> 01:04:11,454
It just means our timeframe is wrong.

832
01:04:11,674 --> 01:04:11,874
Right.

833
01:04:12,874 --> 01:04:13,394
So we'll see.

834
01:04:14,094 --> 01:04:14,454
All right.

835
01:04:14,494 --> 01:04:17,014
And the last topic, let's play this clip about Citibank.

836
01:04:20,054 --> 01:04:24,554
So, yes, as we move into the world of 24-7 assets like Bitcoin,

837
01:04:24,554 --> 01:04:31,554
We definitely need 24-7 US dollar or 24-7 digital money.

838
01:04:31,554 --> 01:04:39,054
And while all our systems and processes are also being uplifted into 24-7 support, like

839
01:04:39,054 --> 01:04:41,194
we absolutely need that.

840
01:04:41,194 --> 01:04:45,474
So in some sense, we are back to the world of Citi never sleeps.

841
01:04:45,474 --> 01:04:50,314
So this is the one big idea, to make Bitcoin bankable.

842
01:04:50,314 --> 01:04:57,274
this year, Citi will be launching our infrastructure that integrates Bitcoin

843
01:04:57,274 --> 01:05:02,494
into traditional finance. So we're going to start with core custody and safekeeping

844
01:05:02,494 --> 01:05:08,914
capabilities, institutional grade key management and wallet infrastructure. So

845
01:05:08,914 --> 01:05:15,994
what does it actually mean to make Bitcoin bankable? Three things. First, as we

846
01:05:15,994 --> 01:05:20,554
at institutional grade custody and key management infrastructure.

847
01:05:20,554 --> 01:05:26,614
We also will be bringing Bitcoin into the fold of the $30 trillion of traditional assets

848
01:05:26,614 --> 01:05:28,834
that our clients entrust with us today.

849
01:05:28,834 --> 01:05:32,794
So it'll be the same framework that's applied and now brought to Bitcoin.

850
01:05:32,794 --> 01:05:41,754
We will be offering our clients a single service model across crypto, securities, and money.

851
01:05:41,754 --> 01:05:47,354
would mean is we will be feeding the bitcoin positions to the same reporting channels and

852
01:05:47,354 --> 01:05:53,914
frameworks and tax workflows that traditional securities pulled into we've heard from our

853
01:05:53,914 --> 01:05:59,354
clients like they don't want to handle wallets and keys and one-time addresses so we will take care of

854
01:05:59,354 --> 01:06:11,834
that was like the least uh friendly bitcoin enticing talk in terms of like bitcoiners

855
01:06:11,834 --> 01:06:17,434
it's just it tells you exactly what's happening right just like trump said congratulations

856
01:06:17,434 --> 01:06:22,354
bitcoiners we got it from here that's city group saying congratulations coinbase we'll take it from

857
01:06:22,354 --> 01:06:26,814
here you've done well done great with your custody yeah and your self-custody we got it

858
01:06:26,814 --> 01:06:31,214
the way you handle but we're going to give you new institutional grade bitcoin but i think it speaks

859
01:06:31,214 --> 01:06:42,014
to also the fact that potentially the vast majority of self-sovereign bitcoiners that got into it for

860
01:06:43,854 --> 01:06:49,134
the sovereign aspects of bitcoin and the self-custody and all all the things all the

861
01:06:49,134 --> 01:06:58,494
cultural things that bitcoin was is provides that that adoption curve may be near an end

862
01:06:59,374 --> 01:07:06,734
meaning all of us that came here for that are in for the most part and our dollar cost averaging in

863
01:07:06,734 --> 01:07:12,814
and or the you know the few that have yet to be woken up to that reality right we woke a bunch up

864
01:07:12,814 --> 01:07:18,414
in the middle east all of a sudden but people will continue to wake up to those to the sovereign

865
01:07:18,414 --> 01:07:25,774
benefits of bitcoin in self-custody but there's this whole other wave of financial this whole

866
01:07:25,774 --> 01:07:31,454
other wave of adoption which is trace mayors financial network effect or financialization

867
01:07:31,454 --> 01:07:38,334
network effect that these groups are going to now take and give people exposure to bitcoin

868
01:07:39,694 --> 01:07:47,134
so so that doesn't take away any of the sovereign aspects that you retain by having it in self-custody

869
01:07:47,134 --> 01:07:48,974
It doesn't take away any of those benefits.

870
01:07:51,434 --> 01:07:58,874
But it does show you that there's a whole new group of people adopting Bitcoin in a completely non-sovereign fashion.

871
01:07:59,494 --> 01:08:01,454
And they're going to take advantage of that group.

872
01:08:02,214 --> 01:08:03,914
And they're going to facilitate that group.

873
01:08:04,994 --> 01:08:07,234
We've always complained about, right?

874
01:08:07,354 --> 01:08:09,914
How many times have we shit on Coinbase for doing that?

875
01:08:10,654 --> 01:08:10,794
Yeah.

876
01:08:11,214 --> 01:08:16,034
Well, now here come the real big ones that are going to do that.

877
01:08:16,034 --> 01:08:22,274
Wow. So do you really think we're at a major inflection point for the 21st century?

878
01:08:23,714 --> 01:08:25,394
Or actually 22nd?

879
01:08:25,494 --> 01:08:27,574
Yeah. I mean, yeah.

880
01:08:28,474 --> 01:08:30,874
We've been talking about this for a decade now.

881
01:08:30,874 --> 01:08:36,954
I mean, with this latest weekend extravaganza in Iran, and is this a major turning point?

882
01:08:37,194 --> 01:08:42,134
This was outlined in the fourth turning.

883
01:08:42,314 --> 01:08:45,114
This has been talked about by Ray Dalio.

884
01:08:45,114 --> 01:08:47,914
This has been talked about by Martin Armstrong.

885
01:08:48,434 --> 01:08:48,734
That's right.

886
01:08:48,814 --> 01:08:50,714
Martin Armstrong, Larry Johnson.

887
01:08:51,094 --> 01:08:57,294
Everybody that has been covering these big global macro shifts

888
01:08:57,294 --> 01:08:59,834
have been talking about this point in history coming.

889
01:09:00,674 --> 01:09:01,674
It's here.

890
01:09:01,854 --> 01:09:03,234
We're in the middle of it.

891
01:09:03,574 --> 01:09:11,034
So it almost feels like a simulation in the way that it's been just a slow train wreck towards this.

892
01:09:12,474 --> 01:09:13,494
Yeah, because...

893
01:09:13,494 --> 01:09:15,714
You know, well, I mean.

894
01:09:18,354 --> 01:09:20,914
I mean, in the sense that.

895
01:09:23,674 --> 01:09:32,074
Every American administration has looked to Iran and as you know, for this to happen, I think.

896
01:09:32,594 --> 01:09:38,454
And everyone is more like everyone with common sense has been like, just don't do this.

897
01:09:38,454 --> 01:09:43,054
Right. And, you know, you try to take yourself out of out of as an American.

898
01:09:43,054 --> 01:09:50,334
i mean persia is a beautiful civilization um it's a historic ancient civilization

899
01:09:51,454 --> 01:09:58,014
i'm not familiar intimately with the regime i know what i see in the news but you know um

900
01:09:59,214 --> 01:10:06,174
time and time again america's tried to do regime change and it's not gone the way we've hoped um

901
01:10:06,174 --> 01:10:12,654
and uh yeah so it just feels like a slow train from that that perspective of well here we go again

902
01:10:13,054 --> 01:10:28,034
Or is it what, so I just had Efrat on our podcast and Monica and Efrat talked about us being right now, this is before the war, but being in the middle of this, the eye of the hurricane.

903
01:10:28,354 --> 01:10:33,494
And now we're maybe hitting the outer wall again and we're going to get the winds, the strong winds again.

904
01:10:33,494 --> 01:10:42,834
and and so if this is something right the regime change in iran has been on the chess board for

905
01:10:42,834 --> 01:10:52,574
decades right but if you look at it from the view of all this stuff that the wef wanted implemented

906
01:10:52,574 --> 01:10:56,794
the palantir wants implemented that the digital control system wants implemented

907
01:10:56,794 --> 01:11:11,094
If the goal is to get that done by 2030, it's like they are running out of time to create the environment where they can push that on the people.

908
01:11:13,074 --> 01:11:20,474
I'm hopeful that a good portion of the world will stand up and say, no, we're not going to accept this.

909
01:11:20,474 --> 01:11:30,654
you you know we're not going to participate in this digital farm as the animals that are fenced

910
01:11:30,654 --> 01:11:39,054
that that's where we just have to stand up and say no we can't we're not strong enough to stop

911
01:11:39,054 --> 01:11:44,314
wars and to stop missiles from flying but we each as individuals are strong enough to say

912
01:11:44,314 --> 01:11:51,074
no we don't accept what you're offering and i want to go a different way i'm going to go i'm

913
01:11:51,074 --> 01:11:55,654
going to i'm going to be as sovereign as i can as an individual i'm going to have my sovereign

914
01:11:55,654 --> 01:12:00,074
money i'm going to have my sovereign communications i'm going to have my food sources i'm having my

915
01:12:00,074 --> 01:12:06,174
water sources i'm going to try and move to a jurisdiction where um those kind of values are

916
01:12:06,174 --> 01:12:12,454
supported as opposed to uh beat out of you and those are all the decisions that individuals are

917
01:12:12,454 --> 01:12:16,854
making and i just think the early bitcoiners were the first ones to see these threats and the first

918
01:12:16,854 --> 01:12:25,494
ones to take action and there'll be many more people waking up uh to to making having to make

919
01:12:25,494 --> 01:12:31,714
that decision whether it's forced on them or not but i think that's all the decision all of us as

920
01:12:31,714 --> 01:12:36,694
individuals are going to have to make over the next few years because it's going to be a full

921
01:12:36,694 --> 01:12:47,134
court press to get the new system, the reset system that they want in place. And it's the they,

922
01:12:47,374 --> 01:12:54,594
right? The they, if you want to know who the they are, right? Go listen to Simon Dixon. Listen to Tom

923
01:12:54,594 --> 01:13:00,454
Luongo. Listen to Martin Armstrong. Listen to all these guys that are doing a really good job of

924
01:13:00,454 --> 01:13:07,254
describing the they and it's not specifically like they're all aligned with an agenda that

925
01:13:07,254 --> 01:13:12,614
that's why i like to think of them as like the mob and the mafia at war with each other

926
01:13:12,614 --> 01:13:21,094
of who's going to be in charge of this new system and we as as the civilians on the street when we

927
01:13:21,094 --> 01:13:25,494
see that black that black cadillac pull up and guys jump out with guns we got to get the out of

928
01:13:25,494 --> 01:13:32,374
the way right like that's all we can do uh and until this says and then once this is reset then

929
01:13:32,374 --> 01:13:36,994
we can stand up and say no i'm not going to participate in it i'm going a whole different

930
01:13:36,994 --> 01:13:44,334
route right i mean i i feel like the boot's going to come down and i want to be living a life where

931
01:13:44,334 --> 01:13:48,414
i'm not worried about scurrying at the last minute yep like i already know the boot's coming down and

932
01:13:48,414 --> 01:13:55,474
just get out of the way now right um which is what we've been trying to preach for several years

933
01:13:55,474 --> 01:13:58,674
in the Bitcoin community about, you know, like, this is coming, this is coming.

934
01:13:59,094 --> 01:14:03,874
I remember in 2017 talking to people about CBDCs and they were like,

935
01:14:03,934 --> 01:14:05,854
well, you're fucking out of your mind.

936
01:14:05,934 --> 01:14:07,094
Like, what are you even talking about?

937
01:14:09,334 --> 01:14:12,114
It's taken a lot longer to get here than I thought it would.

938
01:14:12,914 --> 01:14:14,914
That's my personal misconception.

939
01:14:16,134 --> 01:14:20,654
But if you look at this from the 2030 agenda and you look at everything that

940
01:14:20,654 --> 01:14:24,834
the WEF wanted to have imparted, and now you look at warring tribes

941
01:14:24,834 --> 01:14:28,574
trying to get their own version of that kind of control structure in place.

942
01:14:28,574 --> 01:14:35,734
That's maybe painting a very misty picture of what may be going on.

943
01:14:36,254 --> 01:14:36,354
Yeah.

944
01:14:38,214 --> 01:14:38,874
All right.

945
01:14:38,994 --> 01:14:39,194
Well,

946
01:14:39,614 --> 01:14:44,994
and I look forward to being proven wrong because I'd like nothing better for

947
01:14:44,994 --> 01:14:46,594
all of us to just be safe and happy.

948
01:14:47,034 --> 01:14:47,234
Yeah,

949
01:14:47,294 --> 01:14:47,794
of course.

950
01:14:48,214 --> 01:14:48,614
Well,

951
01:14:48,634 --> 01:14:50,034
we're all doing the best we can stay humble,

952
01:14:50,154 --> 01:14:51,854
stack stats and be safe and happy.

953
01:14:51,954 --> 01:14:53,014
Hopefully be local.

954
01:14:53,494 --> 01:14:54,034
Think local.

955
01:14:54,374 --> 01:14:54,574
Yep.

956
01:14:54,834 --> 01:15:00,194
or act local um there's been another great show as always paul uh this is brought to you by

957
01:15:00,194 --> 01:15:07,714
bite federal go bank yourself go to bite federal atm buy bitcoin use the bite federal app you can

958
01:15:07,714 --> 01:15:12,274
use the yeah when you get in the app store you'll see bite wallet and bite vault bite vault is not

959
01:15:12,274 --> 01:15:17,074
custodial you hold your own keys that's your storage locker bite wallet is where you connect

960
01:15:17,074 --> 01:15:21,474
your checking account and buy your coins smash buy when you get a big enough balance move it to

961
01:15:21,474 --> 01:15:23,494
to self-custody. Go bank yourself.

962
01:15:24,494 --> 01:15:25,214
That's another thing

963
01:15:25,214 --> 01:15:27,154
watching bankers talk about, you know,

964
01:15:27,434 --> 01:15:28,254
banking Bitcoin.

965
01:15:29,254 --> 01:15:31,454
Go bank yourself. Bank yourself, people.

966
01:15:31,874 --> 01:15:33,394
Bank the Unbanked. You've been empowered.

967
01:15:33,614 --> 01:15:34,834
It's your choice to choose it.

968
01:15:35,834 --> 01:15:37,474
I hear you. I don't know if we have any questions

969
01:15:37,474 --> 01:15:39,274
in the chat. If not,

970
01:15:39,374 --> 01:15:40,214
we can roll out.

971
01:15:41,014 --> 01:15:43,194
We don't. Peace, everybody.

972
01:15:44,194 --> 01:15:44,954
See you next week.

973
01:15:44,954 --> 01:15:45,774
Bye-bye.

974
01:15:51,474 --> 01:15:53,954
91.