1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,980
A lot of people are going, oh man, this cycle sucks because it's like 2025 and we're at the same price.

2
00:00:04,060 --> 00:00:07,080
It's like, yeah, but chop guys, chop solidation.

3
00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:12,080
When this thing goes, it's proven that we're now a $2 trillion asset.

4
00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:13,080
The next move is $3 trillion.

5
00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,960
And if we go through another 12 months of sideways, the next stop is $4 trillion.

6
00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,380
I think expectations, not earning enough Bitcoin because they're in shit coins,

7
00:00:21,500 --> 00:00:23,320
not earning enough Bitcoin because they're in treasury companies,

8
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,680
they're the big three that I think have got people frustrated.

9
00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:37,840
If we go up to $150 and we chop solidate for another like 6, 8, 12 months, that thing just keeps drifting higher because $150, $140, $130 becomes the base.

10
00:00:37,900 --> 00:00:41,840
As we chop around in that zone, people buy, people sell, people transact.

11
00:00:42,420 --> 00:00:44,340
Suddenly people don't even think about $75.

12
00:00:44,540 --> 00:00:46,040
$75 is a long lost memory.

13
00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,100
The same way that $1,000 is a long lost memory.

14
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:54,380
So over time, these like smaller prices disappear and they just become irrelevant.

15
00:00:54,860 --> 00:00:56,360
We never think about that again.

16
00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:02,120
We're going to find out within the next 30 to 90 days because every single previous cycle has topped.

17
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:12,040
Like if we're still going by like 2026, then we've probably busted the four year cycle because we've more or less followed it from both the cycle low and from the cycle higher perspective.

18
00:01:12,300 --> 00:01:17,380
When we talk about this time is different, I think it's important to recognize what that actually means.

19
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,440
The human psychology is the same.

20
00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,280
Bubbles will always look very, very similar.

21
00:01:22,460 --> 00:01:24,300
They're constructed in the same way.

22
00:01:24,300 --> 00:01:26,200
People behave the same way.

23
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,840
Human behavior is ultimately the great constant in markets.

24
00:01:29,060 --> 00:01:30,240
I've seen a lot of people actually saying,

25
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:31,920
like, I'm so disappointed in this cycle.

26
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:33,040
It sucks that it's topped.

27
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:34,900
It's like, you're just basing that off the fact

28
00:01:34,900 --> 00:01:35,880
the four years is going to continue.

29
00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:37,200
What if it doesn't?

30
00:01:37,580 --> 00:01:39,960
You know, what if we do in fact go to 150 from here

31
00:01:39,960 --> 00:01:41,520
and then we chop sideways for a year?

32
00:01:42,180 --> 00:01:43,240
And then we go up again.

33
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:44,260
Has the cycle ended?

34
00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,960
And that's what chop solidation is so interesting for

35
00:01:46,960 --> 00:01:49,900
because it kind of acclimates everybody to the new altitude.

36
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,420
100K felt normal kind of quickly.

37
00:01:53,940 --> 00:01:56,260
I wouldn't say that these things are shit coins.

38
00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:02,160
but let's just strip away the fact that they're orange washed companies the idea is that you want

39
00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,840
to buy them for the three-month pump they're full of telegram groups that if you're not on the inside

40
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:15,300
you're going to get smoked like the characteristics of how they operate is shit coining it like it

41
00:02:15,300 --> 00:02:21,460
literally has all the properties of shit coins so it's like functionally the machine is what it does

42
00:02:21,460 --> 00:02:26,800
what are they they're shit coins just sit tight let the market do its thing like bitcoin's kicking

43
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:31,420
ass it's going to continue to kick ass chop solidation has a beautiful way of getting people

44
00:02:31,420 --> 00:02:36,080
to sell their bitcoin out of boredom and frustration don't be the dude that loses it

45
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:41,640
because of boredom and frustration because if you miss those 10 days you miss what this whole thing

46
00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:46,540
is about which is just like being there for those exciting repricing events and lots and lots and

47
00:02:46,540 --> 00:02:48,220
lots of boredom where you get to go and live your life

48
00:02:51,460 --> 00:03:00,020
Greetings and salutations, my fellow plebs. My name is Walker and this is The Bitcoin Podcast.

49
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,960
Bitcoin continues to create new blocks every 10 minutes. The value of one Bitcoin is still

50
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:11,400
one Bitcoin. And if you're listening to this right now, remember, you are still early.

51
00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:16,300
If you're not already, go ahead and subscribe to this show wherever you're watching or listening

52
00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:19,800
and share it with your friends, family and strangers on the internet.

53
00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,800
If you want to follow me in the show on Noster and X, just head to the show notes to grab the links.

54
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,760
If you're enjoying The Bitcoin Podcast and want to support it by becoming a paid subscriber,

55
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,520
you can download the Fountain app, search for The Bitcoin Podcast,

56
00:03:34,020 --> 00:03:38,260
and subscribe by paying with Bitcoin via Lightning or fiat via card.

57
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,980
You'll get access to ad-free episodes and early releases of select content,

58
00:03:43,180 --> 00:03:45,040
plus you'll help support this show.

59
00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:55,080
Head to the show notes for product discount links, go to walkeramerica.substack.com to get episodes emailed to you, and head to bitcoinpodcast.net for everything else.

60
00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,720
Without further ado, let's get into this Bitcoin talk.

61
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,620
I hope you don't mind. I am partaking in a little bit of wine right now.

62
00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:10,240
Oh, my.

63
00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:11,380
What are you drinking?

64
00:04:11,380 --> 00:04:15,420
I am drinking Ben Justman's Peony Lane wine.

65
00:04:15,540 --> 00:04:16,360
It's a Bitcoin wine.

66
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:18,220
So it is hard.

67
00:04:18,300 --> 00:04:19,580
Like, it's hard to get here in Australia.

68
00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,300
I mean, like, I'd love to get a bottle, but is it awesome?

69
00:04:23,180 --> 00:04:24,020
It's fantastic.

70
00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,000
We'll have to find a way to smuggle you some.

71
00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,960
If Ben is, I think Ben may be joining this stream.

72
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,380
So hopefully he hears this, but it's fantastic.

73
00:04:31,380 --> 00:04:34,760
And like, I love that he's doing things kind of like the right way.

74
00:04:34,780 --> 00:04:36,340
Like it's fully organic.

75
00:04:36,980 --> 00:04:39,900
He's, you know, really like he's, he put in his proof of work.

76
00:04:39,900 --> 00:04:44,540
Like he's not taking shortcuts with it. And I think like a crazy percent, I'm forgetting what

77
00:04:44,540 --> 00:04:49,240
the exact percentage is, but like a crazy big chunk of his revenue, it comes in in Bitcoin now.

78
00:04:49,660 --> 00:04:54,400
Like he has been able to like, I mean, he's the Bitcoin wine guy. Like it just goes to show like

79
00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:58,520
you can find your niche and it's, you know, yeah, you might have to like work your ass off for

80
00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:03,000
something, but if you love doing it and you produce a valuable product, like Bitcoiners will

81
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:08,220
be happy to spend sats on it. Like they will part with their precious Bitcoin for a quality product

82
00:05:08,220 --> 00:05:12,840
sold by a bitcoiner and like i think that's just like a beautiful thing so yeah yeah i know it's i

83
00:05:12,840 --> 00:05:18,620
think he has difficulties shipping internationally even to canada uh peony lane wine has has

84
00:05:18,620 --> 00:05:22,460
difficulties getting there so you're not alone uh being you know being down on oh don't worry

85
00:05:22,460 --> 00:05:27,260
we've had the uh we call it the australia tax or it used to be much bigger but the australia tax

86
00:05:27,260 --> 00:05:31,740
was if you wind back the clock maybe like a decade kind of pre-amazon really kicking off

87
00:05:31,740 --> 00:05:35,940
we didn't have any of that shit so like you actually couldn't import stuff to australia

88
00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:40,920
So everything costs, you know, 30, 40 bucks to bring in and it was just impossible to get things.

89
00:05:41,060 --> 00:05:44,580
So like that was a real thing just, you know, maybe 10, 15 years ago.

90
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:45,640
Yeah.

91
00:05:45,840 --> 00:05:48,200
You know, it's, it is just kind of ridiculous.

92
00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:55,640
Like we're, we're at this point, I feel like Americans, we often forget how, like how easy it is for us to get basically everything through Amazon.

93
00:05:55,640 --> 00:06:01,800
And obviously it has gotten a lot easier in other parts of the world, but like still, when I talk to like friends in Europe, it's like, they can't just get something.

94
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,920
Like I can get stuff, like I can order it right now and it'll be on my doorstep like tomorrow morning.

95
00:06:05,940 --> 00:06:08,540
Like that's like, and ridiculous things too.

96
00:06:08,580 --> 00:06:11,300
Like I could order a tiny home and it would like be delivered tomorrow morning.

97
00:06:11,300 --> 00:06:14,160
Like it's just, you know, maybe it's gone too far.

98
00:06:14,260 --> 00:06:14,980
I'm not sure.

99
00:06:14,980 --> 00:06:19,100
I mean, every so often, because I mean, I spent a lot of time like studying macro and

100
00:06:19,100 --> 00:06:19,300
all that.

101
00:06:19,380 --> 00:06:21,480
And that's like, everyone talks about America and it makes sense, right?

102
00:06:22,140 --> 00:06:27,560
The more I've gone down the rabbit hole of like learning how big America is dollar wise

103
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:33,700
in terms of capital, like your tax base, your tax base is like 50% of all profit in the world,

104
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:34,860
like from one country.

105
00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:38,460
And like, you just come to the realization of how big America is.

106
00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:42,480
And I was watching, you might've said there's a Netflix documentary on the Dallas Cowboys.

107
00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:43,920
I watched that recently.

108
00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,440
And like, just the size of the numbers.

109
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,740
And then like, I go back and look through the most expensive sports teams in the world.

110
00:06:49,780 --> 00:06:51,600
And it's just America, America, America, America.

111
00:06:51,700 --> 00:06:53,460
It's all NFL, NBA.

112
00:06:53,840 --> 00:06:58,500
And you're like, my God, like just the sheer capital in the US.

113
00:06:59,060 --> 00:07:02,940
It leaves everyone else for dead, like just by sheer numbers.

114
00:07:02,940 --> 00:07:03,940
It's quite remarkable.

115
00:07:03,940 --> 00:07:04,600
It really is.

116
00:07:04,860 --> 00:07:13,080
Well, and it's like, you know, because sometimes people will give you a grip of like, like if you're talking just, you know, kind of exclusively through like an American lens from an economic perspective.

117
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,300
And it's like, well, yes, I hear that.

118
00:07:15,420 --> 00:07:17,040
But it's also that that is the lens.

119
00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,860
And it is also the global reserve currency.

120
00:07:18,860 --> 00:07:22,840
And in addition to being, you know, a just massive, massive pile of capital.

121
00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,420
So it's like, yeah, it makes sense.

122
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,500
It's like a lot of other stuff is a rounding error.

123
00:07:26,580 --> 00:07:28,660
And let's not say there isn't interesting and important things happening.

124
00:07:28,940 --> 00:07:34,420
It's just that like if you're, you know, if you need a heuristic like that, that is a pretty good one to operate.

125
00:07:34,420 --> 00:07:38,860
and i guess that's what makes this period in history so interesting because you have

126
00:07:38,860 --> 00:07:43,400
really the first time that america's had a challenger in china it's really it is literally

127
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:48,240
the first time and that's what makes this on a macro's landscape so interesting like these are

128
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,180
also you know they're also a monster but they're on two sides there's the producer and there's the

129
00:07:53,180 --> 00:07:57,120
consumer and you know they're trying to make each other do the opposite thing but like it's a

130
00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:01,880
fascinating time in history it's a turning point that's for sure it's it's going to be interesting

131
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:14,420
I mean, there's been all this constant talk about, you know, these BRICS nations getting together and having their gold-backed currency, which everyone seems to be very certain is going to happen very soon.

132
00:08:14,420 --> 00:08:34,200
I'm not sure how much you've looked into all that, but I think it's very interesting when you look at that whole paradigm through the Bitcoin lens where it's like, huh, America is uniquely positioned in that both as a nation state and as a corporate base and as an individual citizen base, we have the most Bitcoin.

133
00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:40,100
like we we do uh and relative like our bitcoin holdings relative to our gold holdings relative

134
00:08:40,100 --> 00:08:45,040
to other countries bitcoin and gold holdings like bitcoin is a much bigger strategic advantage for us

135
00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:51,560
if we wanted to monetize something rapidly uh and kind of change the global paradigm it would make

136
00:08:51,560 --> 00:08:55,540
much more sense to do it in bitcoin than to do it in gold because if you try to do it in gold it's

137
00:08:55,540 --> 00:09:00,720
like well china and russia have quite a bit of gold um or so they say anyway i know china probably

138
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:05,000
has a lot of fake gold too but that's a different story i don't know it's gonna it's gonna be a very

139
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:10,140
like these next 10 20 years i think are gonna be kind of mind-blowing like i don't know

140
00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:15,080
what the future is gonna look like when my you know son is like entering the workforce and

141
00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:23,120
i don't know it's it's wild it is and and like i actually like i'm i am increasingly becoming

142
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:27,660
a gold bug like i know that if bitcoin didn't exist i definitely would be but like gold is

143
00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:31,500
still 10% of my holdings. I've talked about why I own it. It's actually because I just want something

144
00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:36,500
to preserve, not to grow. I know it's not going to be Bitcoin, but in a year's time, I might just

145
00:09:36,500 --> 00:09:41,020
want that capital, right? Buy a house, whatever it is. I don't want to be selling Bitcoin at the

146
00:09:41,020 --> 00:09:46,680
wrong time in a down market, or I'm pretty sure it's about to explode higher and I need 10 grand.

147
00:09:46,820 --> 00:09:51,360
The gold goes, right? That's what it's for. But I'm increasing as I just look at this whole thing

148
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,320
playing out. I mean, we're literally watching gold breaking all-time highs as we speak.

149
00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:59,420
it just is the shelling point and it was funny actually because i called my dad because he's

150
00:09:59,420 --> 00:10:04,360
he's retired he's trying to work out like what do i buy right he doesn't have the timeline

151
00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:09,280
to ride a bitcoin wave and you know there's only so many products i can really say this is the

152
00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:14,140
right thing and he's already got a bitcoin position but for gold i was explaining to

153
00:10:14,140 --> 00:10:19,400
he's like why gold i said it's a shelling point i said look we're in paris i tell you i'm going

154
00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,640
to meet you at midday where are you going to be and he goes eiffel tower that's it that's exactly

155
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,380
right. We're all going to meet at the Eiffel Tower because it's the most obvious place. That's the

156
00:10:27,380 --> 00:10:31,020
shelling point. It's like, everyone's going to look around the world and they're going to go,

157
00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:35,000
fuck, it's a mess. What do I do? I'm going to buy gold because it's just like hands off,

158
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,500
step away. Currencies are getting smashed everywhere. It's funny actually, when I flick

159
00:10:40,500 --> 00:10:44,220
through all sorts of different stocks, I mean, Australia is basically banking and mining. That's

160
00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:48,820
all we do. And I've held various mining stocks over the years. I've never held a banking stock,

161
00:10:48,820 --> 00:10:55,320
various mining stocks and like i've had some success but like not really because suddenly

162
00:10:55,320 --> 00:11:00,800
there's a news headline and just it's down 50 or suddenly like they lost their land title or some

163
00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,720
you know there's some thing that just happened some regulatory bullshit just like blows up it's

164
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:09,340
like a perfectly well functioning mine they have a flood you know these are the kind of things that

165
00:11:09,340 --> 00:11:14,300
happen equities in all forms have these problems and you just kind of look at that's why people

166
00:11:14,300 --> 00:11:19,760
just go into the index because they want to diversify but like gold is just hands-off shelling

167
00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,640
point i'm gonna buy because i don't know what else to do and then also you've got you know the let's

168
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,500
call them the bricks they talk about this gold gold back currency it's just gold right there's

169
00:11:28,500 --> 00:11:33,700
gonna trade in gold so they're just buying and when china decides i'm gonna buy a lot of this

170
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:38,300
thing it they just keep going right they don't care they're price insensitive they just buy buy

171
00:11:38,300 --> 00:11:43,120
buy buy buy and it's i find it very funny that all the other gold bugs are saying like oh look at

172
00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:44,500
Bitcoin getting captured by the government.

173
00:11:44,680 --> 00:11:46,840
Like, bro, central banks are your buyer.

174
00:11:46,940 --> 00:11:47,840
What are you talking about?

175
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:48,620
Like, back off.

176
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:50,820
So, you know, this is one of these interesting dynamics.

177
00:11:50,940 --> 00:11:55,160
But like, I'm increasingly coming around to the fact that like gold has a very important

178
00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:55,580
role.

179
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,140
It's going to be put back into the financial system.

180
00:11:58,240 --> 00:11:59,540
Bitcoin is competing for it.

181
00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:04,020
But let's face it, like the most probable outcome is that gold becomes the bedrock.

182
00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,100
And then Bitcoin becomes like this liquid layer on top.

183
00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,600
And over time, they'll become more used to it.

184
00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:14,300
Like it's going to have a whole lot, a much better shot than it would have, obviously,

185
00:12:14,380 --> 00:12:14,840
if it didn't exist.

186
00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:18,360
But if Bitcoin launched today, I think it would have a hard time.

187
00:12:18,540 --> 00:12:23,320
The fact it's got that 16 year history where it's like it's kind of made it already.

188
00:12:23,860 --> 00:12:25,620
I think that's an interesting time.

189
00:12:25,700 --> 00:12:30,840
It was just at the right place at the right time in time for this whole sovereign debt

190
00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:31,640
shakeup.

191
00:12:31,820 --> 00:12:32,580
It's fascinating.

192
00:12:33,300 --> 00:12:34,760
I am definitely not a trader.

193
00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,300
I'm trying to hold my Bitcoin for the long term.

194
00:12:37,300 --> 00:12:52,060
And if you're like me, you need to make sure you keep that Bitcoin safe by going to bitbox.swiss slash walker and using the promo code walker for 5% off the fully open source Bitcoin only Bitbox O2 hardware wallet.

195
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,360
Then get your Bitcoin off the exchange and into your own self custody.

196
00:12:56,820 --> 00:13:06,180
Bitcoin is chop solidating right around 100K, but we have companies, nation states and a whole lot of plebs like you and me who are stacking harder than ever.

197
00:13:06,180 --> 00:13:12,520
so it's going to keep ripping higher but now is the best time for you to get your security locked

198
00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:18,960
down tight with Bitbox plus and I can't emphasize this enough the Bitbox O2 is just easy as hell to

199
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,960
use whether you're brand new to Bitcoin it's your first time setting up a hardware wallet so you're

200
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:27,940
a little bit nervous it's understandable or you are a well-seasoned psychopath you will have no

201
00:13:27,940 --> 00:13:33,420
problem with the Bitbox and again it's fully open source and Bitcoin only but you don't have to

202
00:13:33,420 --> 00:13:36,720
trust me, you can go and verify that for yourself on their GitHub.

203
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,920
When you go to bitbox.swiss slash walker and use the promo code walker,

204
00:13:42,060 --> 00:13:46,120
not only do you get 5% off, but you also help support this podcast.

205
00:13:46,340 --> 00:13:47,020
So thank you.

206
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,720
Yeah, I mean, it's always fun to make fun of gold bugs.

207
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,860
But at the same time, gold has been extremely good at maintaining value

208
00:13:56,860 --> 00:13:58,580
over thousands of years.

209
00:13:58,580 --> 00:14:04,060
Like literally like it, you know, it's not, not great for increasing your purchasing power

210
00:14:04,060 --> 00:14:08,780
relative to the actual goods, you know, hard goods that you were trying to buy, but it

211
00:14:08,780 --> 00:14:09,700
is really good at maintaining.

212
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,140
You know, what is it like the thousand dollars or, you know, a thousand dollar suit of the

213
00:14:13,140 --> 00:14:18,180
ounce, the ounce of gold suit, uh, you know, like, like a fine, fine tailored suit basically

214
00:14:18,180 --> 00:14:20,440
was like an ounce of gold a hundred years ago.

215
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:21,620
And it's an ounce of gold today.

216
00:14:21,620 --> 00:14:26,560
And you know that it's gotten much more expensive in fiat terms, obviously, but you still have

217
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,360
the same purchasing power if you saved in gold.

218
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:33,340
So it's like, yeah, I like taking shots at Peter Schiff as much as the next guy, maybe more than the next guy.

219
00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:35,460
But, you know, it has its place.

220
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:42,960
I think that's interesting that you use it really just as like a that's your if I need to sell something, I don't want to sell my Bitcoin.

221
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:54,260
I think that's something I actually I haven't actually heard somebody else who's like, no, gold is the thing that I'm like, I just keep a little bit of it because I want to be able to have something that I don't have any qualms about parting ways with, which is basically where you're at.

222
00:14:54,300 --> 00:14:54,480
Right.

223
00:14:55,180 --> 00:14:58,000
Yeah, it's kind of my one to two year liquidity pool.

224
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,720
So it's cash that's not fiat, right?

225
00:15:00,900 --> 00:15:03,780
If I need something in the next three months, cash, obviously.

226
00:15:04,180 --> 00:15:13,240
If I need something in the next six to two years, six months, two years, then gold is the right asset for that because it's just going to preserve that purchasing power in this current environment.

227
00:15:14,140 --> 00:15:16,000
And then Bitcoin is my longest duration.

228
00:15:16,980 --> 00:15:21,220
So paying off, not starting the mortgage, paying off the mortgage.

229
00:15:21,660 --> 00:15:23,060
Gold is there to start the mortgage.

230
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:24,460
Bitcoin is there to pay it off.

231
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:26,280
Putting kids through school, right?

232
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:30,160
that's a 12 plus year long liability that I don't have to deal with right now. Bitcoin,

233
00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:35,220
that's where it's going. So that's how I like to think about it. And it is, it's there to be sold

234
00:15:35,220 --> 00:15:38,920
because everything is a relative game. So for me, I talk about this a lot.

235
00:15:39,540 --> 00:15:44,200
The house in Australia is a really, I mean, it's a hard thing to catch. In Sydney, particularly,

236
00:15:44,660 --> 00:15:49,720
our median to median is like 13 median income to median house price. So it's like they have to

237
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:55,260
create a new bucket because five is what's deemed highly unaffordable. 13 is called impossibly

238
00:15:55,260 --> 00:15:59,720
unaffordable. They've had to create a new tier for it. We're up there with Hong Kong and most

239
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:05,260
other Australian cities. So for us, it's like a good luck chasing it. Bitcoin is the only thing

240
00:16:05,260 --> 00:16:09,860
that's allowed me to actually chase the housing market, but everything's a relative trade.

241
00:16:10,780 --> 00:16:16,580
The housing market may have a spasm at some point. This can happen. And I may not want to

242
00:16:16,580 --> 00:16:20,840
sell my Bitcoin because like many people listening, I also think it's going to a million bucks,

243
00:16:20,900 --> 00:16:24,960
probably not tomorrow, but I think it's going there. Do I really want to sell my million dollar

244
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:30,140
future Bitcoin now to do that? Do I mind selling like a couple of ounces of gold to like get

245
00:16:30,140 --> 00:16:35,400
started? Couldn't care less. So its job is there to be sold to take advantage of the gold to house

246
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:41,360
ratio. The Bitcoin is there to clear the mortgage to Bitcoin ratio. That's really the long term.

247
00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:45,640
And it's just about timeframe. Most of the time when people disagree on stuff in markets, it's

248
00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,680
they're not understanding each other's timeframe. And this is just a great example.

249
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,520
I think that's a really good point. I think one thing a lot of people do seem to agree on right

250
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,560
now at least people who don't just completely hate bitcoin is that gold is that canary in the

251
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,860
coal mine right it's letting when when gold is going up it's kind of letting everybody know

252
00:17:01,860 --> 00:17:06,740
hey something is out of whack here people are feeling something is wrong there's big shifts

253
00:17:06,740 --> 00:17:11,360
coming people are looking for something that is you know that is going to be okay uh you know at

254
00:17:11,360 --> 00:17:15,820
least for the foreseeable future like if everything else you know uh you know just completely dies off

255
00:17:15,820 --> 00:17:19,000
like gold gold's gonna have a little cold but it you know it'll be okay and it'll probably just

256
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,660
keep going up. Do you view gold as kind of that marker for where you see, okay, if gold's making

257
00:17:23,660 --> 00:17:28,860
moves, you look for Bitcoin to follow? Because I think Bitcoin is still in its gold-denominated

258
00:17:28,860 --> 00:17:35,820
value. It's still like, has it broken all-time highs yet? It briefly broke to all-time highs,

259
00:17:35,820 --> 00:17:40,680
then pulled back. And this is another one of those things. So I think the gold, for me,

260
00:17:40,820 --> 00:17:45,240
gold is actually the benchmark. So we often compare everything in Bitcoin terms. The problem

261
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,120
when you put any asset in Bitcoin terms, it just looks like the inverse of the Bitcoin chart.

262
00:17:49,260 --> 00:17:53,820
Because of how powerful its old history is, it's kind of useless. It's honestly useless information.

263
00:17:54,460 --> 00:17:58,700
What I do like to look at is everything priced in gold. You can look at the stock market. This

264
00:17:58,700 --> 00:18:04,460
is a really, really popular chart. Look at the S&P 500 and it's rolling over and it tends to have

265
00:18:04,460 --> 00:18:11,240
gold outperformance for roughly 10 years. And then you have like a 10 to 20 year type period

266
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:17,020
where it's equities. And it looks like we've just completed a 10-year equity phase and we're moving

267
00:18:17,020 --> 00:18:23,220
into a 10-year gold phase, which is probably not a great sign for equities by and large, because

268
00:18:23,220 --> 00:18:27,560
it's usually during these periods of loss of purchasing power, you get higher inflation,

269
00:18:27,780 --> 00:18:31,380
it's harder for companies to continue to grow in those environments. So you get this kind of

270
00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:37,220
lost decade. Now, whether it's a lost decade in fiat or only in gold terms remains to be seen.

271
00:18:37,220 --> 00:18:44,440
certainly in gold terms is kind of my base case but if you compare fiat versus uh gold and i

272
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,100
actually like i've got a couple of charts on my website where i reference it to february 2022

273
00:18:48,100 --> 00:18:52,700
because there's always a question of like where do you anchor this stuff and what i really like

274
00:18:52,700 --> 00:18:56,640
one thing that really it's kind of a bit of a pet peeve is when you see people going oh bitcoin's

275
00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:01,600
performance sucks measuring from like the picotop to the picotop it's like who cares about the picotop

276
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:06,960
if you're dcaing into any asset like that only matters for the guy who bought the absolute top

277
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,980
and then bought the absolute top and was like, why aren't I performing?

278
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:11,440
It's like, because you're a shit investor.

279
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:12,580
You know, I do better.

280
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,920
So like working out what is a correct anchor point is always tricky.

281
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,480
Now, if you look at Bitcoin's performance, if you anchor to the cycle bottom,

282
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,100
of course, it's going to look tremendous against anything.

283
00:19:23,100 --> 00:19:25,340
It's kind of a bit disingenuous.

284
00:19:25,540 --> 00:19:30,360
If you go from the cycle top, sure, you can see how it's performed up until the next bull.

285
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,140
And that's okay.

286
00:19:31,140 --> 00:19:32,880
But really only matters to the guy at the bull top.

287
00:19:33,820 --> 00:19:36,340
I've got a bunch of charts where I anchor to February, 2022.

288
00:19:36,340 --> 00:19:38,880
because that's actually a major geopolitical event.

289
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,220
That's when the US froze Russia's reserves.

290
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:45,220
And if you look at all fiat currencies versus gold since then,

291
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,180
they're down somewhere between 40% and 60%.

292
00:19:48,180 --> 00:19:50,020
The US dollar is down 51%.

293
00:19:50,020 --> 00:19:53,380
So the US dollar has been cut in half in gold terms

294
00:19:53,380 --> 00:19:55,500
since they froze the reserves.

295
00:19:55,580 --> 00:19:57,580
It's like, okay, so that's starting to say

296
00:19:57,580 --> 00:19:58,860
maybe we've got a shift going.

297
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,660
If you look at toilet paper, which is TLT, long duration bonds,

298
00:20:03,100 --> 00:20:04,620
they're down 61%.

299
00:20:04,620 --> 00:20:30,140
So that's it. I mean, that's more than being cut in half. That's pretty nasty. Stocks are down 25%. So gold's kind of kicking ass. Now, if you then introduce Bitcoin, what happened in February 2022? Well, we were on the precipice of going down to 15K. We didn't know it yet. We're trading at like 45, 50K. So the nice thing about this comparison is you pick up the Bitcoin bear. You're not saying I'm going to cherry pick from the Bitcoin bottom and say, look how good it's done.

300
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,360
No, I'm going to cherry pick from like early phase of the bear.

301
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,340
Luna collapses, three arrows collapses, FTX collapses.

302
00:20:37,980 --> 00:20:42,200
And yet we've still recovered and we're up something like between 80 and 50%, depending

303
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:43,000
on where you want to measure it.

304
00:20:43,060 --> 00:20:46,760
So Bitcoin is one of few assets that is beating the gold benchmark.

305
00:20:47,260 --> 00:20:51,080
So it's actually a really genuine and fair comparison because you're saying, look, we

306
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,960
get some downside, but your fiat's getting killed.

307
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,020
Your stocks are getting killed.

308
00:20:55,180 --> 00:20:58,840
Pretty much everything is losing to gold except Bitcoin.

309
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,380
and one or two of the high-flying tech stocks.

310
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,420
So you're really like talking about a very small pool of assets.

311
00:21:04,980 --> 00:21:06,320
Everything's correlated right now.

312
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:07,580
So it's all one trade.

313
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,100
You know, at some point you're like, I look at NVIDIA.

314
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:15,660
NVIDIA is actually the only asset that I can, you know, big picture asset,

315
00:21:16,120 --> 00:21:17,380
not penny stocks and the like.

316
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,500
NVIDIA is really the only asset that is beating Bitcoin on any meaningful timeframe.

317
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,440
And I'm like, is it going to go from $4 trillion to $8 trillion?

318
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,220
I can see Bitcoin going from $2 trillion to $8 trillion.

319
00:21:28,220 --> 00:21:30,380
I don't even have to run any compute cycles.

320
00:21:30,460 --> 00:21:31,660
This is going to happen.

321
00:21:32,900 --> 00:21:34,140
NVIDIA's got a lot of work.

322
00:21:34,260 --> 00:21:41,540
They've got to keep growing at a kind of unsustainable rate for a long time to justify an $8 trillion markup.

323
00:21:41,620 --> 00:21:42,860
All the dollars are going to get cut in half.

324
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,080
Both of those things could happen, but I can see Bitcoin going to $8 trillion far easier.

325
00:21:48,260 --> 00:21:52,120
So for me, it just becomes this like, I'm just going to put money in gold and Bitcoin.

326
00:21:52,220 --> 00:21:54,160
Just wait because I know where they're going to go.

327
00:21:54,500 --> 00:21:55,500
I understand the thesis.

328
00:21:55,500 --> 00:21:57,640
It's really the same thesis, just different timelines.

329
00:21:58,220 --> 00:22:01,340
sit tight, hands off, shelling point, let it do its thing.

330
00:22:02,820 --> 00:22:06,940
You know, you mentioned that kind of the shite investor who basically, you know,

331
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,840
bought the very top and is now complaining about, you know, the lack of gains.

332
00:22:11,300 --> 00:22:13,720
I mean, do you think that there's a lot of that in the current,

333
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,340
just vibes in the current sentiment out there?

334
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,400
Because we're still, let's see, right now, the time of recording,

335
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,740
we're a little over 111,000 infinitely printable, you know,

336
00:22:24,740 --> 00:22:26,140
fiat cuck bucks per Bitcoin.

337
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:27,980
It's pretty awesome.

338
00:22:28,220 --> 00:22:31,960
you know, in my book. It's pretty amazing. We crashed to 110K.

339
00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:36,420
Yeah. Like it's amazing that this is boring or that this is a crash or that this is somehow

340
00:22:36,420 --> 00:22:42,420
unsatisfactory to some people. Why are we seeing such just like a kind of a weird,

341
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,060
like just a weird vibe out there right now? What is your take on this?

342
00:22:46,580 --> 00:22:51,020
Sentiment has been one of the most interesting things to cycle by far. And there's a few running

343
00:22:51,020 --> 00:22:56,760
theses. It's very hard to prove what it is. It's probably a bit of all of it. I'll try and run

344
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:02,520
through a couple of things on my list. The first one, I think, which is worth noting, and I remember

345
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:09,660
back in 2023, would have been like mid-23, I think. I was working at Glassnode at the time,

346
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:15,920
and I heard many anecdotes from hedge funds, trading desks, average investors. If you wind

347
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:22,880
back the clock to that late 2022 bear market, early 23, ETH actually outperformed Bitcoin in

348
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:35,818
that process And I think a lot of people and I heard this a lot of trading firms go oh Bitcoin actually not going to make it now Let rotate and go And even if it does then we may as well be on the fastest horse which is number two

349
00:23:36,378 --> 00:23:38,838
And then it got absolutely slammed.

350
00:23:39,118 --> 00:23:45,557
So I think a lot of people got stuck in the shitcoin trade, expecting the capital waterfall

351
00:23:45,557 --> 00:23:46,237
to happen.

352
00:23:47,358 --> 00:23:52,078
ETH obviously got absolutely rinsed versus Bitcoin, just a horrible three-year persistent

353
00:23:52,078 --> 00:23:52,618
decline.

354
00:23:52,618 --> 00:23:59,717
and then I look this is just how markets work I can only imagine the disgust of people just going

355
00:23:59,717 --> 00:24:05,078
I'm done they rotate out and then it pumps right suddenly it's at all-time high again

356
00:24:05,078 --> 00:24:09,758
I can only I mean like I don't know how the future is going to play out but poetry and I don't like

357
00:24:09,758 --> 00:24:15,158
poetry but poetry would be ethereum tagging its all-time high by like 50 bucks as it's done and

358
00:24:15,158 --> 00:24:20,618
that's it it's over it's done but all those people who bought it at the bottom watched it go lower

359
00:24:20,618 --> 00:24:25,838
finally sold it and then buy back into the top and are probably now going to ride the next wave

360
00:24:25,838 --> 00:24:30,977
down that's one area so i think people just call got caught in the wrong shit coins under allocated

361
00:24:30,977 --> 00:24:36,398
to bitcoin i think the other one is treasury companies people saw the meteoric rise of mstr

362
00:24:36,398 --> 00:24:41,758
there's a bunch of guys out there and well done for being on that train very very early

363
00:24:41,758 --> 00:24:48,037
and riding that wave up i think there's two things that have really crushed people let's say three

364
00:24:48,037 --> 00:24:52,938
things that have really crushed people's sentiment. One, MSTR has not really gone anywhere in some

365
00:24:52,938 --> 00:24:57,898
time since November last year, and most of it's gone down. So I think a lot of people got kind of

366
00:24:57,898 --> 00:25:03,697
crushed on MSTR. I think more people got crushed buying call options on MSTR, and they're probably

367
00:25:03,697 --> 00:25:09,477
discovering that call options, if you just hold the stock, it might come back. Call options literally

368
00:25:09,477 --> 00:25:13,977
go to zero. If they don't end up in the money, they literally go to zero, and they go to zero

369
00:25:13,977 --> 00:25:18,057
quickly. So I think that's been a capital destruction. And I think a lot of people

370
00:25:18,057 --> 00:25:22,118
saw MetaPlanet, missed it, and then jumped on every other shitcoin with a

371
00:25:22,118 --> 00:25:26,237
cold card. And they're now down 60 odd percent plus

372
00:25:26,237 --> 00:25:30,438
and still going. So I think the treasury companies have probably incinerated

373
00:25:30,438 --> 00:25:34,418
quite a lot of capital. People didn't quite understand the premium compression

374
00:25:34,418 --> 00:25:38,338
angle to this whole thing. What is that? That's actually the same

375
00:25:38,338 --> 00:25:42,297
story as the previous point, which is people just under allocated to Bitcoin.

376
00:25:42,297 --> 00:25:48,217
not enough people actually just own spot corn now there's the other one of and i think this is

377
00:25:48,217 --> 00:25:54,118
actually very meaningful i don't believe that i think this is generally people who are inexperienced

378
00:25:54,118 --> 00:25:58,977
in markets have this view but i see it a lot people think it's been a shit cycle because it

379
00:25:58,977 --> 00:26:03,938
hasn't gone up enough hasn't gone up as much as they expected that's got nothing to do with the

380
00:26:03,938 --> 00:26:08,297
market that's because people's expectations were just very very wrong like bitcoin is just much

381
00:26:08,297 --> 00:26:13,457
bigger now. Now, personally, I ran a study, I think it would have been like January, February.

382
00:26:13,998 --> 00:26:18,678
And I try to look at the capital flows and how much I think has to come in to justify moves to

383
00:26:18,678 --> 00:26:22,618
different levels. And anyway, when I ran that study, we're about 100K. And I said, what's it

384
00:26:22,618 --> 00:26:27,078
going to take to get us to 150? From 2 trillion to 3 trillion, what's that move going to require?

385
00:26:27,678 --> 00:26:32,878
And my estimation was that the ETFs probably had to double from where they were back then.

386
00:26:32,878 --> 00:26:35,858
I think they've been up like 60, 70%.

387
00:26:35,858 --> 00:26:38,678
But if you add in MSTRs buying since then,

388
00:26:39,237 --> 00:26:40,998
you've actually kind of got the amount of capital

389
00:26:40,998 --> 00:26:42,878
that I thought we needed to get to 150.

390
00:26:43,057 --> 00:26:44,618
Now, that doesn't mean that I'm right,

391
00:26:44,678 --> 00:26:46,518
but I think we belong at 150, honestly.

392
00:26:46,618 --> 00:26:47,957
And I think we kind of belong there

393
00:26:47,957 --> 00:26:48,938
and we should stay there.

394
00:26:49,938 --> 00:26:51,898
I just think a lot of people don't understand

395
00:26:51,898 --> 00:26:54,358
that markets are a process, not a result.

396
00:26:54,717 --> 00:26:56,557
Just because you get to a price

397
00:26:56,557 --> 00:26:58,918
doesn't mean that you've earned the right to stay there.

398
00:26:59,477 --> 00:27:01,138
MSTR got to what, 500 bucks.

399
00:27:01,138 --> 00:27:07,477
but it just didn't have, you know, it can't really sustain a 3X premium. It can't really

400
00:27:07,477 --> 00:27:12,578
grow its Bitcoin stack by 3X. It's probably not going to happen. So if you like Bitcoin's really

401
00:27:12,578 --> 00:27:18,457
got to go on a serious run before that expands. So I think people's expectations outrun reality.

402
00:27:18,977 --> 00:27:25,197
A lot of folks, I think, feel like the Bitcoin market, because of the bears, probably the bears

403
00:27:25,197 --> 00:27:31,578
suck, they're brutal, that doesn't mean the market owes you a retirement. You know what I mean? Like

404
00:27:31,578 --> 00:27:36,998
markets are not ATMs. You've got to give the market, it's like the tide, the tide, if you swim

405
00:27:36,998 --> 00:27:42,057
against it, it's going to drag you out to sea. You can wish all you want what your expectations

406
00:27:42,057 --> 00:27:46,797
should be, but like the market just is, it's just a force of nature and you just kind of have to go

407
00:27:46,797 --> 00:27:53,778
along with the ride. So, you know, if for example, we pull back to, I don't know, 100K, 90K,

408
00:27:53,778 --> 00:27:57,518
and we bottom out there, is everyone going to go, hey, that was a bear market?

409
00:27:57,638 --> 00:27:58,618
Like in my book, that's a bear.

410
00:27:58,717 --> 00:28:02,778
I think if we actually pull back to like 90, 80, 75, to me,

411
00:28:03,057 --> 00:28:05,457
that's starting to look like bear market floor type material.

412
00:28:05,518 --> 00:28:07,378
That's my gut feel.

413
00:28:07,498 --> 00:28:10,057
If we were to bear out here, I think that's a bear market.

414
00:28:10,697 --> 00:28:13,858
So then is everyone going to like correct their charts and say, oh yeah,

415
00:28:13,858 --> 00:28:18,878
we actually bottomed in November 2025 and that was it.

416
00:28:18,878 --> 00:28:23,878
And then are people going to be like ready to adjust their cycle theory?

417
00:28:23,938 --> 00:28:27,938
And like, if you just keep punching to new highs, does suddenly the cycle not suck anymore?

418
00:28:28,338 --> 00:28:31,438
So it's just about like understanding that things are a process.

419
00:28:31,717 --> 00:28:32,858
Markets take time.

420
00:28:33,138 --> 00:28:38,957
When it's going up, it's actually not because people are buying shitloads of coin right now.

421
00:28:39,297 --> 00:28:42,977
It's because they bought shitloads of coin for the last like five, six, seven, eight,

422
00:28:43,038 --> 00:28:43,658
nine months.

423
00:28:44,057 --> 00:28:45,578
And then the sellers dry up.

424
00:28:46,178 --> 00:28:48,858
You still got the same amount of demand, but suddenly there's no one

425
00:28:48,858 --> 00:28:54,938
willing to sell. So, you know, if I go back to 2024, that move from 50K to 100K when Trump got

426
00:28:54,938 --> 00:29:03,338
elected, without that eight months of sideways, choppy, boring, frustrating, sideways price action,

427
00:29:03,398 --> 00:29:08,398
without that chop solidation, you don't go from 50 to 100. And if you do, you probably come back

428
00:29:08,398 --> 00:29:14,998
down because that eight months of chop is the base from which that move comes from. And if we look at

429
00:29:14,998 --> 00:29:18,538
our current performance, a lot of people are going, oh man, this cycle sucks because it's like 2025

430
00:29:18,538 --> 00:29:24,598
five and we're at the same price it's like yeah but chop guys chop solidation when this thing goes

431
00:29:24,598 --> 00:29:29,498
it's proven that we're an hour two trillion dollar asset the next move is three trillion and if we go

432
00:29:29,498 --> 00:29:34,538
through another 12 months of sideways the next stop is four trillion and it's like and i don't

433
00:29:34,538 --> 00:29:39,178
believe this kind of stair-stepping can go on indefinitely but it's a process so i think

434
00:29:39,178 --> 00:29:43,717
expectations not earning enough bitcoin because they're in shit coins not earning enough bitcoin

435
00:29:43,717 --> 00:29:47,957
because they're in treasury companies they're the big three that i think have got people

436
00:29:47,957 --> 00:29:53,498
frustrated. Maybe the fourth one I should just add, there's less volatility. People expect the

437
00:29:53,498 --> 00:29:57,658
high octane old school Bitcoin, which is probably the way they went into treasury companies.

438
00:29:57,918 --> 00:30:04,098
It hasn't given them that high octane. It's given my old man his, hey, I actually quite like Bitcoin

439
00:30:04,098 --> 00:30:10,217
anymore. It doesn't seem to go down. Think about that sentiment in Wall Street, in pension funds,

440
00:30:10,338 --> 00:30:15,818
in retirement accounts. If you've got the high octane, you can kind of lose those people.

441
00:30:16,618 --> 00:30:20,638
The fact that we don't have that is actually opening doors and taking away one of the biggest

442
00:30:20,638 --> 00:30:23,318
pieces of FUD that's ever been around for Bitcoin, which is it's too volatile.

443
00:30:23,518 --> 00:30:25,538
It's like, well, we got rid of that too.

444
00:30:25,878 --> 00:30:27,338
You know, like what FUD is left?

445
00:30:27,438 --> 00:30:28,457
There is no FUD left.

446
00:30:28,518 --> 00:30:28,998
Let's go.

447
00:30:30,778 --> 00:30:33,797
Honestly, Bitcoiners right now are coming up with the most FUD for Bitcoin.

448
00:30:34,138 --> 00:30:34,998
Like that's what I'm seeing.

449
00:30:35,118 --> 00:30:36,758
It's no longer, you know, the external.

450
00:30:36,898 --> 00:30:38,018
That's the most amazing part.

451
00:30:38,018 --> 00:30:38,217
Okay.

452
00:30:38,638 --> 00:30:40,398
There's so much there I want to unpack.

453
00:30:40,818 --> 00:30:43,578
One of the things maybe to start with is just because you mentioned kind of that, like,

454
00:30:43,578 --> 00:30:47,498
you know, earning that, uh, you know, or you feel that, you know, we should be at somewhere around

455
00:30:47,498 --> 00:30:51,878
one 50. And I've got to say though. So the last time we talked, it was February of this year.

456
00:30:52,197 --> 00:30:56,878
You like, I don't know if you remember this, but you perfectly called that. Like you didn't get

457
00:30:56,878 --> 00:31:00,178
that, you know, say what the exact time would be, but you were like, I think we probably go back down

458
00:31:00,178 --> 00:31:05,658
to 75 or so. And if that happens, I'm backing up the truck. Lo and behold, like a month later,

459
00:31:05,658 --> 00:31:09,638
we, you know, blast down to 75. Everyone's like, what's going on? And I'm just sitting there like,

460
00:31:09,977 --> 00:31:13,518
oh, checkmate did say this was probably going to happen. And then you're like, but I think that

461
00:31:13,518 --> 00:31:16,057
the top is somewhere around 150 this cycle.

462
00:31:16,758 --> 00:31:17,977
Are you still like,

463
00:31:18,018 --> 00:31:19,078
is that still like,

464
00:31:19,498 --> 00:31:21,477
do you think that was like the bottom?

465
00:31:21,557 --> 00:31:23,038
Do you think we retouch that,

466
00:31:23,038 --> 00:31:24,038
that March,

467
00:31:24,158 --> 00:31:25,578
April low again,

468
00:31:25,578 --> 00:31:26,477
or go below that is,

469
00:31:26,477 --> 00:31:28,998
is 58 K a magnet or,

470
00:31:28,998 --> 00:31:29,518
or have we,

471
00:31:29,638 --> 00:31:29,838
you know,

472
00:31:29,878 --> 00:31:31,278
those days gone by us.

473
00:31:31,278 --> 00:31:34,737
And then on the other side of that is your kind of top target for this

474
00:31:34,737 --> 00:31:38,957
cycle still looking at that 150 marker is that we're looking at,

475
00:31:38,957 --> 00:31:40,818
or have there been things that have come to light in,

476
00:31:40,898 --> 00:31:40,957
you know,

477
00:31:40,957 --> 00:31:41,898
in the past say,

478
00:31:41,938 --> 00:31:42,078
you know,

479
00:31:42,078 --> 00:31:46,578
half a year basically since we last talked that have changed that in terms of what you think we

480
00:31:46,578 --> 00:31:52,398
might be able to achieve this cycle? All really good questions. So I'll talk through why I thought

481
00:31:52,398 --> 00:31:55,858
we were going to go to 75. And again, it's not because I can predict the future. I certainly

482
00:31:55,858 --> 00:32:02,498
can't. There was what I call an air pocket. So we did the 2024 chop solidation. And in fact,

483
00:32:02,518 --> 00:32:06,658
I should actually wind back the clock one more step. In 2021, we got to a trillion dollar market

484
00:32:06,658 --> 00:32:14,358
cap, it's about 50K, 50, 60K twice. The first time in March, April, and then we got slammed down to

485
00:32:14,358 --> 00:32:19,598
29. Then we tried it again in November, October, and we got slammed down to 15K. The market said,

486
00:32:19,717 --> 00:32:23,818
sorry, mate, you're not ready for a trillion dollars. Try again next time. So we did. We

487
00:32:23,818 --> 00:32:28,598
tried again next time with the ETFs in tow, right? We've cleared out all the dead wood. We've had a

488
00:32:28,598 --> 00:32:34,798
complete Bitcoin equivalent of a GFC. We've smoked all the three arrows, the block fires, they're

489
00:32:34,798 --> 00:32:41,658
gone. Suddenly we're in, hey, we got these ETFs and they're taking in billion dollars a day on a

490
00:32:41,658 --> 00:32:46,838
consistent basis. Massive numbers. Oh, by the way, they're actually like the most successful ETFs ever.

491
00:32:47,318 --> 00:32:52,217
Suddenly we're at 73. Now the market ran a bit too hard, too fast. We chopped around for eight

492
00:32:52,217 --> 00:33:00,618
months. Every time we went below, not above, below 50K, we got bid every single time. The yen carry

493
00:33:00,618 --> 00:33:05,678
trade happened, 49, straight back up again. We come down to 53, the German government sells 50,000

494
00:33:05,678 --> 00:33:10,558
coins, straight back up again. The market said, no, you did it. You made it. You're a trillion

495
00:33:10,558 --> 00:33:17,898
dollar asset now. So the ceiling of that, what I call the top of the chop, 75K. Now from 75 up to

496
00:33:17,898 --> 00:33:23,578
86 in November, there was basically no coins at transit. We literally just zipped way too quickly.

497
00:33:23,578 --> 00:33:28,678
So the move higher was built off that base, that 2024 base.

498
00:33:29,377 --> 00:33:34,318
But yet very, very often markets will come back and retest major all-time higher breakouts.

499
00:33:34,598 --> 00:33:38,098
But also those air pockets, I don't know why it is.

500
00:33:38,158 --> 00:33:39,498
It's the same as CMR gaps.

501
00:33:39,598 --> 00:33:42,038
There's just like these things in markets I've seen enough times.

502
00:33:42,418 --> 00:33:44,217
I'm just like, look, be aware.

503
00:33:44,338 --> 00:33:45,737
We might go down and touch it.

504
00:33:45,818 --> 00:33:50,058
We might just go and find out, hey, I know you've bought all these coins at 95 and 100.

505
00:33:50,197 --> 00:33:51,398
Do you still like it at 75?

506
00:33:51,398 --> 00:33:53,237
And the market said, yes.

507
00:33:53,578 --> 00:34:02,998
Now, the reason I like this like 75 to 80K region right now, by the way, I actually think there's a much lower probability that we go there.

508
00:34:03,457 --> 00:34:09,898
I actually don't want us to go there because I think that would be just from a technical perspective, quite damaging to the chart.

509
00:34:10,078 --> 00:34:11,477
So I don't want us to go there.

510
00:34:11,518 --> 00:34:12,498
I don't think we go there.

511
00:34:12,558 --> 00:34:15,877
But if we do, sailors cost basis at 74K.

512
00:34:15,877 --> 00:34:23,657
The average, there's an on-chain model I use called the true market mean, which is the average cost basis for people who are actually active in the cycle.

513
00:34:23,778 --> 00:34:24,377
That's at 78.

514
00:34:24,877 --> 00:34:26,278
The ETFs are at 80.

515
00:34:26,398 --> 00:34:28,498
So you've got 80, 78, 74.

516
00:34:29,357 --> 00:34:30,258
Imagine the headlines.

517
00:34:30,457 --> 00:34:32,817
Imagine the smell of the price going back down to 75.

518
00:34:32,957 --> 00:34:33,738
You've got the top of the chop.

519
00:34:34,098 --> 00:34:35,278
Just imagine that happening.

520
00:34:36,278 --> 00:34:42,918
It would be absolute chaos and only the Bitcoin believers would be like, I mean, sale are about to be liquidated.

521
00:34:43,018 --> 00:34:44,337
ETF investors get wrecked.

522
00:34:44,337 --> 00:34:47,477
Like pick your headline, bottom form and stuff, guys.

523
00:34:47,558 --> 00:34:48,718
Like that's nasty.

524
00:34:49,078 --> 00:34:51,477
We have earned our right as a trillion dollar asset.

525
00:34:51,578 --> 00:34:52,778
We don't belong at 50K.

526
00:34:53,018 --> 00:34:57,357
Now, if we go there because anything in this world can happen, that's deep value.

527
00:34:57,657 --> 00:34:59,598
Like, I'm sorry, but that's just deep value.

528
00:34:59,738 --> 00:35:01,738
I'm selling the couch, right?

529
00:35:01,798 --> 00:35:02,637
Whatever you got to do.

530
00:35:02,877 --> 00:35:04,977
Once you get down there, it doesn't make sense.

531
00:35:05,038 --> 00:35:06,177
It's too oversold.

532
00:35:06,357 --> 00:35:09,238
So I'm just trying to like think through these scenarios in advance.

533
00:35:09,357 --> 00:35:13,477
And then once you, well, for me at least, once I've satisfied myself that, you know what?

534
00:35:13,477 --> 00:35:19,758
anything below that level is deep value i go well how low could we actually go if like if you look

535
00:35:19,758 --> 00:35:25,398
at things on like a risk reward perspective we're at 100 if we go to 75 that's 25 correction from

536
00:35:25,398 --> 00:35:31,837
here from or from 100 okay it's like another day in bitcoin you know what i mean like as long as i

537
00:35:31,837 --> 00:35:38,938
didn't put my whole net worth in at 124 like yeah that would suck but like okay 25 30 whatever

538
00:35:39,898 --> 00:35:42,398
What if we go up to 150, 180?

539
00:35:42,538 --> 00:35:43,618
So now let's look at the upside.

540
00:35:44,977 --> 00:35:48,018
As chop solidation occurs, now, if we spoke in February,

541
00:35:48,618 --> 00:35:50,817
there's been a lot of coins that have changed hands,

542
00:35:50,977 --> 00:35:54,598
both on the sell-off down of 75, on the rally back up again,

543
00:35:54,677 --> 00:35:56,598
on the multiple consolidations we've had,

544
00:35:56,657 --> 00:35:58,078
on the pullback we're currently having.

545
00:35:58,718 --> 00:35:59,598
We've gone nowhere.

546
00:35:59,817 --> 00:36:02,598
We've chop solidated for another nine months.

547
00:36:02,718 --> 00:36:03,998
Imagine all the coins that have changed hands.

548
00:36:04,298 --> 00:36:05,657
And actually, it's a huge amount.

549
00:36:05,657 --> 00:36:11,758
uh i'll try i'm pretty sure the numbers are if you price every utxo based on when it last moved

550
00:36:11,758 --> 00:36:18,618
on chain i think it's 50 it's either 50 or 45 something like that around half of every dollar

551
00:36:18,618 --> 00:36:26,438
that has ever been if you price the utxos is above 95k above 95 that's the floor that's like

552
00:36:26,438 --> 00:36:30,898
where bitcoin's home is now so that's the kind of magnitude that we're talking about

553
00:36:30,898 --> 00:36:37,618
the people's mental investment cost basis. If you think about all these Wall Street investors

554
00:36:37,618 --> 00:36:43,738
and the ETFs, all these pension funds, they don't care that Bitcoin traded $100 or $10 or $15.

555
00:36:44,177 --> 00:36:51,038
Their cost basis is $55 IBIT, $62 IBIT. And all they see when they log into the chart is an

556
00:36:51,038 --> 00:36:55,337
uptrend. They literally don't know that Bitcoin has bear markets unless they kind of recall from

557
00:36:55,337 --> 00:37:04,058
the news. So from that perspective, we've reset the entire Bitcoin psychology to like 75k plus.

558
00:37:04,258 --> 00:37:12,298
75k is like old news now, bear market territory. Everything above 95, normal, normal, normal,

559
00:37:12,298 --> 00:37:17,877
normal behavior. So then you go, okay, well, where can we go before people start getting

560
00:37:17,877 --> 00:37:22,157
too profitable? When are they going to start selling? So that was 150 when we spoke last.

561
00:37:22,157 --> 00:37:27,918
as more capital changes hands, if you've got a bunch of people with a cost basis that used to

562
00:37:27,918 --> 00:37:33,558
be 50, but they sold it to some guy whose cost base is now a hundred, well, for him to hit his

563
00:37:33,558 --> 00:37:38,738
profit target, it's no longer 150, it might be 180, it might be 200, right? The market's got to go

564
00:37:38,738 --> 00:37:44,518
higher to create the incentive for people to sell. So from memory, the 150 level we spoke about

565
00:37:44,518 --> 00:37:50,198
before, I think right now will be floating around 180 or 185, something like that. And again, that's

566
00:37:50,198 --> 00:37:55,377
not a target. That's just where statistically speaking, there's a 5% chance we keep going.

567
00:37:55,677 --> 00:38:00,137
If you just look at mean reversion, there's only a 5% chance that we get there and then keep going

568
00:38:00,137 --> 00:38:06,078
past it. But if we go up to 150 and we chop solidate for another like six, eight, 12 months,

569
00:38:06,278 --> 00:38:12,298
that thing just keeps drifting higher because 150, 140, 130 becomes the base. As we chop around in

570
00:38:12,298 --> 00:38:17,298
that zone, people buy, people sell, people transact. Suddenly people don't even think

571
00:38:17,298 --> 00:38:23,018
about 75. 75 is a long lost memory, the same way that a thousand dollars is a long lost memory. So

572
00:38:23,018 --> 00:38:28,877
over time, these like smaller prices disappear and they just become irrelevant, right? We never

573
00:38:28,877 --> 00:38:33,637
think about that again. And we start always looking ahead because people are naturally optimistic.

574
00:38:33,637 --> 00:38:38,258
So that's the way I like to think about things. Chop consolidation is the most important like

575
00:38:38,258 --> 00:38:43,118
market structure dynamic. It's a function of lots of things, ETFs, derivatives, the whole lot.

576
00:38:43,118 --> 00:38:48,157
but this chop solidation thing that we're experiencing is why bitcoin keeps climbing

577
00:38:48,157 --> 00:38:52,157
higher and it's why this cycle kicks ass because we've never seen this before it really is a whole

578
00:38:52,157 --> 00:38:59,438
different thing very healthy very stable actually much easier to read honestly like if i went brought

579
00:38:59,438 --> 00:39:05,357
myself back and tried to restudy the 2021 cycle you had to know that blockfire was playing silly

580
00:39:05,357 --> 00:39:10,357
games you had to know that three arrows capital was borrowing a billion dollars for zero collateral

581
00:39:10,357 --> 00:39:13,418
You had to know all this like weird esoteric stuff.

582
00:39:14,298 --> 00:39:18,817
Now, all we have to just look at is like, you know, where has the market proven?

583
00:39:19,137 --> 00:39:21,598
Where have we got the confidence that we belong at that level?

584
00:39:21,798 --> 00:39:25,578
And for me, it just seems to be much, much easier to read on those levels.

585
00:39:27,038 --> 00:39:27,938
Oh, okay.

586
00:39:28,098 --> 00:39:29,657
I mean, I love that.

587
00:39:29,738 --> 00:39:32,778
First of all, that it's just kind of the chop solidation.

588
00:39:33,038 --> 00:39:35,718
You've really brought me around this from the last conversation.

589
00:39:35,837 --> 00:39:37,657
Obviously, you've talked about it a lot.

590
00:39:37,657 --> 00:39:42,198
you know and it you know uh uh dr jeff ross would you know his version that is like the crab market

591
00:39:42,198 --> 00:39:46,317
right or the bull crab market just kind of crabbing along and it's and it's boring and it bores you

592
00:39:46,317 --> 00:39:50,377
just long enough to where you're kind of like okay you know screw that and then that's when

593
00:39:50,377 --> 00:39:55,018
it melts your face off i'm curious though you know could because you mentioned okay there's

594
00:39:55,018 --> 00:40:00,798
also this chance of we maybe we have this pullback maybe there is like a november 2025 uh bear market

595
00:40:00,798 --> 00:40:06,018
and then and then that's the bottom of the bear like do you where are you at with the whole four

596
00:40:06,018 --> 00:40:10,018
your cycles thing you know because we talked about this a little bit last time one of the

597
00:40:10,018 --> 00:40:13,677
things you said was yeah conditions might change i'm paraphrasing here conditions might change but

598
00:40:13,677 --> 00:40:18,837
human nature doesn't change and obviously there's other you know factors that play into this there's

599
00:40:18,837 --> 00:40:23,177
global liquidity cycles as well right there's all these different things so where are you at with us

600
00:40:23,177 --> 00:40:30,538
or with this is this time different from that cycle perspective uh or do we you know is it is it

601
00:40:30,538 --> 00:40:34,398
a little bit different but it still follows the the general framework you know it doesn't repeat

602
00:40:34,398 --> 00:40:38,457
itself, but it rhymes. How do you look at this? How are you kind of planning for that as we go

603
00:40:38,457 --> 00:40:44,377
forward? What's your model there? That's a great question. And there's a few angles to this. The

604
00:40:44,377 --> 00:40:50,377
first one, we're going to find out within the next 30 to 90 days, because every single previous cycle

605
00:40:50,377 --> 00:40:56,538
has topped. If we're still going by 2026, then we've probably busted the four-year cycle, because

606
00:40:56,538 --> 00:41:01,058
we've more or less followed it from both the cycle low and from the cycle higher perspective.

607
00:41:01,718 --> 00:41:03,297
A lot of people like to share that chart.

608
00:41:03,357 --> 00:41:07,177
I think it's a good one that just kind of maps each cycle's performance since the bottom,

609
00:41:07,278 --> 00:41:07,817
since the top.

610
00:41:08,098 --> 00:41:11,797
I really dislike the one since the halving because I think the halving was completely

611
00:41:11,797 --> 00:41:15,938
and utterly irrelevant, both from a market perspective, but also it's just kind of an

612
00:41:15,938 --> 00:41:16,518
arbitrary date.

613
00:41:17,177 --> 00:41:21,398
Cycle bottom, cycle higher makes a lot more sense because that takes into account the

614
00:41:21,398 --> 00:41:26,398
duration that people go through, like the investor psychology of going through a bear,

615
00:41:26,398 --> 00:41:32,918
hammering out a bottom finding the actual like conviction to buy it going through the recovery

616
00:41:32,918 --> 00:41:37,598
hitting the euphoria and then just going oh man i'm getting rich and then everyone makes decisions

617
00:41:37,598 --> 00:41:42,218
on those types of time frames now no matter which way you want to measure it we're somewhere between

618
00:41:42,218 --> 00:41:47,898
30 and 90 days away from like hitting where all previous cycles have topped out now if we've

619
00:41:47,898 --> 00:41:52,817
already topped out which is always a possibility i don't it's not my base case but it's possible

620
00:41:52,817 --> 00:41:58,258
if we've already topped out it was kind of a normal cycle honestly like we got the diminishing

621
00:41:58,258 --> 00:42:03,698
returns you know we went for about the same duration it's in between the duration of 2017

622
00:42:03,698 --> 00:42:10,418
and 2021 so like there's a lot of things that are kind of in line so it still has a lot of

623
00:42:10,418 --> 00:42:17,138
characteristics of the four-year cycle however it is also different structurally measurably

624
00:42:17,138 --> 00:42:22,538
observably it's very very different it has a lot of the characteristics of the 2016-17 markets

625
00:42:22,538 --> 00:42:27,938
spot driven, I think is a key part of that. Then the ETS are a big role. If you look at any mean

626
00:42:27,938 --> 00:42:33,857
reversion oscillators, whether technical or on-chain, it has the same pattern and flow as 1617,

627
00:42:34,357 --> 00:42:39,418
different amplitude and it oscillates around means rather than kind of finding support on them. So

628
00:42:39,418 --> 00:42:45,797
it's got a different character. 2018 to 22 was a very, very different period. Boom, bust, straight

629
00:42:45,797 --> 00:42:51,738
up, straight down, like with leverage, very, very different creature. So it is different,

630
00:42:51,738 --> 00:42:58,538
But it also, when we talk about this time is different, I think it's important to recognize what that actually means.

631
00:42:59,118 --> 00:43:00,638
The human psychology is the same.

632
00:43:01,258 --> 00:43:03,457
Bubbles will always look very, very similar.

633
00:43:03,677 --> 00:43:05,477
They're constructed in the same way.

634
00:43:05,837 --> 00:43:07,377
People behave the same way.

635
00:43:07,558 --> 00:43:10,038
Human behavior is ultimately the great constant in markets.

636
00:43:10,977 --> 00:43:16,957
So the four-year cycle, there will be a lot of people who behave, sell, act.

637
00:43:17,297 --> 00:43:20,398
I've seen a lot of people actually saying, I'm so disappointed in this cycle.

638
00:43:20,498 --> 00:43:21,518
It sucks that it's topped.

639
00:43:21,518 --> 00:43:24,377
It's like, you're just basing that off the fact that four years are going to continue.

640
00:43:24,817 --> 00:43:25,718
What if it doesn't?

641
00:43:26,058 --> 00:43:29,797
You know, what if we do in fact go to 150 from here and then we chop sideways for a

642
00:43:29,797 --> 00:43:31,738
year and then we go up again?

643
00:43:31,837 --> 00:43:32,758
Has the cycle ended?

644
00:43:33,258 --> 00:43:37,558
And that's what chop solidation is so interesting for because it kind of acclimates everybody

645
00:43:37,558 --> 00:43:38,398
to the new altitude.

646
00:43:39,657 --> 00:43:41,918
100K felt normal kind of quickly.

647
00:43:42,538 --> 00:43:48,758
Now in 2017, you never had time to get used to 3K and 5K and 7K and 10K because by the

648
00:43:48,758 --> 00:43:53,377
time you've worked out what price you're at, you're 2x higher. So people didn't actually have

649
00:43:53,377 --> 00:44:00,518
time to acclimatize to new altitudes. Here, we've acclimatized to 100K for nine months.

650
00:44:00,738 --> 00:44:06,718
People are now used to 100K as being like a normal level. If we go to 95, in fact, even at 108,

651
00:44:07,198 --> 00:44:11,677
I was like, kind of feels like a discount, right? I'm a hodler who's been in this market for a long

652
00:44:11,677 --> 00:44:17,038
time. We always feel like we're late and it's expensive when we buy. I now feel comfortable

653
00:44:17,038 --> 00:44:24,337
buying at 108K, right? Tell that to my like 12 month old self, like 12 months ago. Insane. When

654
00:44:24,337 --> 00:44:28,677
you're trading at 50K, you're like, by the way, it's going to feel really normal to buy 108K

655
00:44:28,677 --> 00:44:33,857
pullback. And by the way, you'll have been there for a year. You're like, what? You know, when you

656
00:44:33,857 --> 00:44:38,518
put all this stuff in perspective, Chop Solidation is doing a really, really good job of just helping

657
00:44:38,518 --> 00:44:43,078
people get used to the ascent, right? It's like going to Base Camp 1, spend some time there,

658
00:44:43,078 --> 00:44:47,877
get your oxygen right go to base camp two once you're comfortable base camp two you can start

659
00:44:47,877 --> 00:44:51,438
seeing the summit it's still a long way up but you can start thinking about the summit

660
00:44:51,438 --> 00:44:58,038
yeah i mean it is interesting to think of like uh how quickly these things become the new normal

661
00:44:58,038 --> 00:45:02,518
like and it just feels like you said like it's you know it went down to 108k and i'm like oh

662
00:45:02,518 --> 00:45:06,177
well great i'm you know add a little bit add a little bit actually a couple a couple little

663
00:45:06,177 --> 00:45:10,457
smash buys here with the the fiat that you know that i've got lying around you know i've got my

664
00:45:10,457 --> 00:45:14,938
my dca just keeps on cooking but a little extra they're feeling frisky and it's like wow it feels

665
00:45:14,938 --> 00:45:18,957
like a feels like i got a great deal on that on those sats they're like fantastic right but it's

666
00:45:18,957 --> 00:45:23,957
again that like if you would have told me that at 50k i would have been like well i'm backing up the

667
00:45:23,957 --> 00:45:28,677
truck even more now there's nothing like the truck is gone i've sold all the tires in the truck there's

668
00:45:28,677 --> 00:45:32,258
nothing left for it but here but if i you know i'm going to somehow limp it along to back it up more

669
00:45:32,258 --> 00:45:37,078
but it so i think it's interesting does that does that necessarily mean then that like are you

670
00:45:37,078 --> 00:45:43,138
generally the theory, I should say that like any bear, quote, bear market or any drawdowns will be

671
00:45:43,138 --> 00:45:48,598
less severe and less, they won't be as long. Is that fair to say that you're kind of in that camp?

672
00:45:48,758 --> 00:45:53,817
Can we have a protracted bear market still? Yeah, yeah. It very much depends on the bull.

673
00:45:54,418 --> 00:46:01,657
So it's very hard for me to construct a nasty 80% down bear market from here. It's very hard for me

674
00:46:01,657 --> 00:46:05,837
to construct that because I do believe, and again, these are just beliefs, but I do believe we have

675
00:46:05,837 --> 00:46:11,578
proven that Bitcoin's a trillion dollar asset. Bitcoin doesn't belong down below 50K. It's just

676
00:46:11,578 --> 00:46:17,758
not, it's out of bounds. So once you go to that process, you're like, we literally haven't gone

677
00:46:17,758 --> 00:46:24,098
high enough to justify an 80%. Okay. What happens if we go high enough? How high do we have to go

678
00:46:24,098 --> 00:46:28,837
before an 80% makes sense? You wake up tomorrow and you're at 500K or a million bucks. Yeah,

679
00:46:28,877 --> 00:46:33,578
we're coming down. It's going to be hard, right? That descent's going to suck. So that's where

680
00:46:33,578 --> 00:46:37,438
Like a lot of folks I see say, oh, but it didn't hit my 300K price target.

681
00:46:37,438 --> 00:46:40,718
It's like, yeah, but you need to be sitting there on the sell button when it gets there

682
00:46:40,718 --> 00:46:43,578
because it's not going to be there for very long, right?

683
00:46:43,598 --> 00:46:47,778
Unless the whole world is just imploding and, you know, that's a whole different edge case.

684
00:46:47,857 --> 00:46:52,797
But the most likely scenario is that we just go through this market cycle and we hit peaks.

685
00:46:52,938 --> 00:47:05,355
There will be a bear at some point I suspect it will be protracted I think we still get a lengthy period but it really depends on the pathway up For me as an analyst it much easier

686
00:47:05,395 --> 00:47:11,535
and I think most people would agree with this, it's much easier to spot an insanely euphoric bull

687
00:47:11,535 --> 00:47:16,815
where funding rates are through the roof, lots of profit takings happening, the narrative is there

688
00:47:16,815 --> 00:47:22,195
is no ceiling, MSTR is just mooning, every treasury company and shit coins going through the roof.

689
00:47:22,195 --> 00:47:28,275
we've all been there we've seen it we know what it looks like it's easy to spot euphoria how high it

690
00:47:28,275 --> 00:47:33,175
goes is a whole different animal because a lot of people sell and then it goes keeps going higher

691
00:47:33,175 --> 00:47:38,515
and then they buy back in because like oh no i'm wrong and they end up buying the top again so that's

692
00:47:38,515 --> 00:47:43,935
a very common behavior what actually concerns me as an analyst is that we just like roll over it's

693
00:47:43,935 --> 00:47:50,055
like this just like sad little it just doesn't have the euphoric boom that you would expect that's

694
00:47:50,055 --> 00:47:54,055
much harder to spot because you're really looking at just like a softening out of demand. Now,

695
00:47:54,175 --> 00:47:59,435
the truth is right now, as we're talking, the ETFs are pretty soft. We've seen about three or

696
00:47:59,435 --> 00:48:03,635
four weeks where they just haven't seen significant inflows. It's not bearish. They're just not

697
00:48:03,635 --> 00:48:07,435
bullish either. We get a little bit of an outflow. We get a little bit of an inflow.

698
00:48:07,955 --> 00:48:11,975
One thing that I find quite comforting with the ETFs is that we've seen very, very little

699
00:48:11,975 --> 00:48:17,495
sustained week after week, billion dollar out, billion dollar out. We haven't seen that.

700
00:48:17,495 --> 00:48:20,435
We get the occasional patch, but it's an event.

701
00:48:20,555 --> 00:48:23,055
Everything's been quite event-based, which I think is very good.

702
00:48:23,115 --> 00:48:25,615
We're not getting like a loss of confidence of holders.

703
00:48:25,715 --> 00:48:26,255
That's a good thing.

704
00:48:26,895 --> 00:48:29,135
Treasury company bid has just evaporated completely.

705
00:48:29,755 --> 00:48:31,975
And that's because a lot of these companies don't have an MNAB anymore.

706
00:48:32,095 --> 00:48:34,855
They have no premiums, so they have no capacity to buy.

707
00:48:35,475 --> 00:48:41,655
You've got Saylor who's meaningfully backed off the – he can't sell as much of these preferreds anymore.

708
00:48:42,115 --> 00:48:45,015
He was raising $2 billion, $1 billion, $3 billion.

709
00:48:45,855 --> 00:48:47,095
He did like $400 million.

710
00:48:47,095 --> 00:48:50,955
Now, $400 million is still a lot of money, but it's not $2 billion.

711
00:48:51,295 --> 00:48:53,615
It's quite sizably less than $2 billion.

712
00:48:54,155 --> 00:48:56,735
So even Saylor doesn't have the buy side.

713
00:48:56,815 --> 00:48:59,855
So the treasury company bids evaporated, really.

714
00:49:00,775 --> 00:49:05,235
So really, all you're left with is just classic Bitcoiners buying in spot markets.

715
00:49:05,795 --> 00:49:10,135
When you look at the amount of sell side, I also don't encourage people to whale watch.

716
00:49:10,215 --> 00:49:11,315
I certainly don't whale watch.

717
00:49:11,395 --> 00:49:15,315
But Sani, who's from Time Chain Index, he's done tremendous work, and he's got all the

718
00:49:15,315 --> 00:49:16,335
labels to track this stuff.

719
00:49:16,335 --> 00:49:23,375
he can see all these like oh 24 000 bitcoin comes back to life 24 000 bitcoin comes um galaxy just

720
00:49:23,375 --> 00:49:30,955
cleared 80 000 bitcoin like these are very very big clips and there's a lot of them we're not at

721
00:49:30,955 --> 00:49:38,855
90k we're not at 80 we're not at 70 we're at 110 111 like bitcoin's doing pretty all right

722
00:49:38,855 --> 00:49:42,635
considering the etfs are soft and the treasury companies are doing absolutely nothing

723
00:49:43,315 --> 00:49:44,455
That's quite remarkable.

724
00:49:44,655 --> 00:49:47,655
There's a lot of Bitcoiners out there just stacking actual sats.

725
00:49:48,115 --> 00:49:49,175
It's not going to be all retail.

726
00:49:49,315 --> 00:49:52,275
There's going to be like institutions and funds and firms and all that.

727
00:49:53,035 --> 00:49:55,795
But there's demand out there that I think a lot of people aren't like.

728
00:49:55,795 --> 00:50:01,015
It should be lower given how much sell side there is and how little the obvious demand

729
00:50:01,015 --> 00:50:02,315
vectors are contributing.

730
00:50:02,475 --> 00:50:03,415
It's quite remarkable, actually.

731
00:50:04,595 --> 00:50:05,215
It's interesting.

732
00:50:05,295 --> 00:50:08,315
It reminds me because one of the things we talked about last time again was the kind

733
00:50:08,315 --> 00:50:09,735
of market manipulation narrative.

734
00:50:09,735 --> 00:50:14,795
of this idea that, oh, clearly there's market manipulation and paper Bitcoin being sold and

735
00:50:14,795 --> 00:50:19,115
all these things because the price isn't doing what I want right now. And your response to that

736
00:50:19,115 --> 00:50:23,975
again at that time, which I think was pretty prescient given the very large and public whale

737
00:50:23,975 --> 00:50:28,455
sales that we've seen of late, I just mentioned a couple of them, is that you were like, look,

738
00:50:28,535 --> 00:50:36,495
there's a lot of OG whales with massive stacks of Bitcoin. And for them, anything over 100k looks

739
00:50:36,495 --> 00:50:40,115
pretty great because they've held it from a few bucks or from you know from whatever it is like

740
00:50:40,115 --> 00:50:46,615
they are massively massively unbelievably in profit and they're they want to take some of that

741
00:50:46,615 --> 00:50:49,955
like who knows these may not even be their their whole clips they're you know all of their stacks

742
00:50:49,955 --> 00:50:55,235
like they may have other ones like like and i i feel like people just still i mean it's hard for

743
00:50:55,235 --> 00:50:59,935
me to fathom having you know like one person having billions of dollars of bitcoin but like

744
00:50:59,935 --> 00:51:06,015
it's out there and and there's more of them than we realize that and the other thing is like you

745
00:51:06,015 --> 00:51:09,575
you know this guy who's going to sell 80 000 bitcoin they're like why would you do that we're

746
00:51:09,575 --> 00:51:15,755
about to go on like the monster of all bull runs mike bro he bought in 2011 he's had the monster of

747
00:51:15,755 --> 00:51:22,695
all bull runs he's up 10 billion dollars like he needs to hire a legal team to sort out his estate

748
00:51:22,695 --> 00:51:27,135
like that's how much money this dude has he can buy an island don't worry about him he's going to

749
00:51:27,135 --> 00:51:31,335
be just fine and who knows how many more of these clips he's got uh he probably doesn't want to keep

750
00:51:31,335 --> 00:51:33,775
on a fucking cold wallet anymore.

751
00:51:34,055 --> 00:51:35,775
You know, that's a whole mission.

752
00:51:36,255 --> 00:51:37,895
So it is an interesting angle,

753
00:51:37,995 --> 00:51:39,875
but it's not only just the whale OGs.

754
00:51:39,915 --> 00:51:41,615
They're definitely an interesting component

755
00:51:41,615 --> 00:51:43,515
that we've seen in like the recent months.

756
00:51:44,015 --> 00:51:45,775
But the other thing that's like even more interesting,

757
00:51:45,955 --> 00:51:47,295
there's just hodlers

758
00:51:47,295 --> 00:51:48,775
and people have held for six months,

759
00:51:48,855 --> 00:51:50,695
12 months, two years, three years.

760
00:51:51,055 --> 00:51:52,175
People have just been around

761
00:51:52,175 --> 00:51:54,215
for a cycle and a half or a cycle.

762
00:51:54,995 --> 00:51:56,435
A lot of these guys are selling as well.

763
00:51:56,975 --> 00:51:58,095
And they always sell,

764
00:51:58,275 --> 00:51:59,935
these coins come back to life.

765
00:52:00,055 --> 00:52:00,635
And this is the thing.

766
00:52:01,335 --> 00:52:05,315
When we look at on-chain data, we don't know that a coin was sold.

767
00:52:05,535 --> 00:52:07,815
We can see that a lot of them go in and out of exchanges.

768
00:52:08,315 --> 00:52:13,715
On an average daily basis, approximately a billion dollars goes in and out of exchanges,

769
00:52:13,835 --> 00:52:15,035
which is pretty massive.

770
00:52:15,935 --> 00:52:20,235
Somewhere between like 60% and 80%, when you actually look at like adjusting the transaction

771
00:52:20,235 --> 00:52:24,835
volume and you get rid of all like the exchange internals and all that stuff, somewhere between

772
00:52:24,835 --> 00:52:31,155
like 60 and 80% of the real economic volume of Bitcoin are coins going in and out of exchanges

773
00:52:31,155 --> 00:52:36,675
for trade. Now, of course, someone may buy a coin and then not exactly withdraw it on that day.

774
00:52:36,755 --> 00:52:42,775
They may also send a coin and not sell it on that exact day. It really doesn't matter. They come back

775
00:52:42,775 --> 00:52:49,075
to life. Old coins with the most profit always come back to life when the market is going up

776
00:52:49,075 --> 00:52:54,995
harshly, right? When the market is really ripping, people sell. They bring coins back to life. Now,

777
00:52:55,035 --> 00:52:58,135
it could also be that they've all got a telegram chat and they go, now's the day we're going to do

778
00:52:58,135 --> 00:53:02,975
UTXO consolidation. Let's all do our management today because the price is 100K. No, they're

779
00:53:02,975 --> 00:53:08,035
taking profit or they're doing something in the market. They could be taking a loan. It doesn't

780
00:53:08,035 --> 00:53:13,215
matter. The pattern is lots of old coins come back to the market and then the market stops going up.

781
00:53:13,775 --> 00:53:17,495
It's just kind of the way things work. So we don't need to be perfectly precise,

782
00:53:17,495 --> 00:53:21,575
but we can get a decent read that there are a lot of these coins coming in.

783
00:53:21,695 --> 00:53:24,635
But my favorite, one of my favorite insights,

784
00:53:25,235 --> 00:53:28,275
everything is Newton's third law, equal and opposite.

785
00:53:28,815 --> 00:53:31,355
Every sold Bitcoin is a bought Bitcoin.

786
00:53:31,675 --> 00:53:35,735
When you measure sell side, you're actually measuring demand.

787
00:53:36,455 --> 00:53:37,815
And this is the thing for me that's been,

788
00:53:38,475 --> 00:53:40,695
I look at the sell side and you've got to like,

789
00:53:40,895 --> 00:53:43,935
you know, it's all about developing a bit of a gut feel.

790
00:53:44,035 --> 00:53:45,315
I call it like your Bitcoin instinct.

791
00:53:45,315 --> 00:53:49,135
And by the way, trust your Bitcoiner instinct because you'll be amazed.

792
00:53:49,235 --> 00:53:53,035
I wrote a piece on this literally yesterday on how much your Bitcoiner instinct lines

793
00:53:53,035 --> 00:53:54,715
up with what's going on in the on-chain world.

794
00:53:54,835 --> 00:53:59,215
If you can like, really, I just view on-chain data as a way to visualize all of us.

795
00:53:59,235 --> 00:54:00,835
All of us Bitcoiners, what are we doing?

796
00:54:00,895 --> 00:54:01,475
What are we feeling?

797
00:54:01,575 --> 00:54:02,415
How in profit are we?

798
00:54:02,915 --> 00:54:07,015
More often than not, your Bitcoiner instinct will align with what's going on.

799
00:54:07,115 --> 00:54:12,135
And my Bitcoiner instinct for this pretty much whole cycle, look at all of that sell

800
00:54:12,135 --> 00:54:15,175
side and the price is doing this over months.

801
00:54:15,315 --> 00:54:22,195
Yeah, it swings up and down, but guys, we're at $110K and we're taking billion dollars a day of sell side.

802
00:54:22,295 --> 00:54:27,055
Right now, it's $2 billion a day of OG whales and long-term holder sell side.

803
00:54:27,295 --> 00:54:28,115
$2 billion a day.

804
00:54:28,635 --> 00:54:30,895
And the market's down 10% from the highs.

805
00:54:31,855 --> 00:54:35,575
We have serious, serious demand in this market.

806
00:54:35,635 --> 00:54:36,815
And I think a lot of people miss that.

807
00:54:37,115 --> 00:54:38,715
They miss Newton's third law.

808
00:54:39,175 --> 00:54:40,875
Every solid Bitcoin has a buyer.

809
00:54:41,255 --> 00:54:43,915
And the buy side is absolutely tremendous.

810
00:54:43,915 --> 00:54:48,995
shouldn't be discounted. No, absolutely. And just following up on that, somebody asked in the

811
00:54:48,995 --> 00:54:55,135
live stream chat on Noster, is there a way of kind of that you project when sellers, these OG

812
00:54:55,135 --> 00:54:59,395
sellers will reach a point of exhaustion? Is there something you look at that kind of informs that?

813
00:54:59,395 --> 00:55:04,455
And how do you know if we're getting towards the end of that? Is there something that can tell you

814
00:55:04,455 --> 00:55:10,655
that? Absolutely. Yeah. So there's a metric that I use called sell-side risk ratio. It's one of my

815
00:55:10,655 --> 00:55:19,535
favorites, actually. When we talk about realized profit and realized loss, when I say coin,

816
00:55:19,635 --> 00:55:25,035
just think UTXO for the nerds in the room. When I say coin, every coin has a cost basis.

817
00:55:25,455 --> 00:55:29,595
That's the price when the UTXO was created. When did that coin last move on chain?

818
00:55:30,195 --> 00:55:35,235
If that's your cost basis, and your cost basis is 100K, for example, and the price is at 110K,

819
00:55:35,735 --> 00:55:37,695
Technically speaking, that person's up 10%.

820
00:55:37,695 --> 00:55:41,015
When they spend that coin, we can measure the delta.

821
00:55:41,215 --> 00:55:42,395
We can also do it on the downside.

822
00:55:42,595 --> 00:55:44,275
So realize profit, realize loss.

823
00:55:45,115 --> 00:55:50,635
Now, when people are taking profit, locking in coins, they bought at a thousand bucks

824
00:55:50,635 --> 00:55:56,195
and spending them at 110K, they are signaling to the market that they think we are no longer

825
00:55:56,195 --> 00:56:01,135
at equilibrium because if we're at equilibrium, they would hodl because they're like, no,

826
00:56:01,195 --> 00:56:02,515
I think we have further to run.

827
00:56:03,015 --> 00:56:09,635
Now, if someone's capitulating a loss, it is also sending a signal that they do not think we're at equilibrium because they think it's going lower.

828
00:56:10,295 --> 00:56:17,675
At bear market bottoms, if you can believe it, we get top buyers naturally taking massive Ls, long-term holder top buyers.

829
00:56:18,055 --> 00:56:20,235
You get the people who bought last week thinking it was the bottom.

830
00:56:20,395 --> 00:56:21,455
They capitulate as well.

831
00:56:21,455 --> 00:56:27,415
But then you also get long-term holders who lock in profits at bottoms because they're terrified it's going to go lower.

832
00:56:28,275 --> 00:56:30,675
So add up all the profit and loss,

833
00:56:30,995 --> 00:56:32,795
the delta between those cost bases,

834
00:56:32,975 --> 00:56:35,255
how much has been locked in by the coins that are moving

835
00:56:35,255 --> 00:56:38,215
and compare it to how big the market is, right?

836
00:56:38,235 --> 00:56:40,835
So it's a ratio of the disturbing force,

837
00:56:41,035 --> 00:56:44,135
which is the profit and loss versus how big Bitcoin is,

838
00:56:44,175 --> 00:56:45,575
which we use the realized cap,

839
00:56:45,635 --> 00:56:47,855
which values every coin based on when it last moved.

840
00:56:48,515 --> 00:56:52,595
This metric looks identical to options implied volatility.

841
00:56:52,595 --> 00:56:56,035
So options implied volatility is measured purely from the options chain.

842
00:56:56,035 --> 00:56:58,075
It wouldn't know that Bitcoin is a blockchain.

843
00:56:58,195 --> 00:56:59,575
It has no idea about on-chain data.

844
00:57:00,055 --> 00:57:01,775
And yet these two metrics are identical.

845
00:57:02,495 --> 00:57:07,335
So when we see that everyone who is going to take profit and everyone who is going to

846
00:57:07,335 --> 00:57:13,515
take loss has done so, cell-fied risk goes down because you've got this, your disturbing

847
00:57:13,515 --> 00:57:14,735
force is now very small.

848
00:57:15,115 --> 00:57:17,855
Bitcoin is very big, but no one's taking profit or loss.

849
00:57:17,975 --> 00:57:23,215
All the coins that are transacting on-chain, if we're at $110K, that will last acquired

850
00:57:23,215 --> 00:57:26,295
at 109 or 109.50 or 106.

851
00:57:26,475 --> 00:57:30,055
They're not acquired at 10K or 5K or 30K.

852
00:57:30,655 --> 00:57:31,715
The delta is small.

853
00:57:32,395 --> 00:57:38,015
So whenever we get this like volatility compression, the options market usually goes to sleep and

854
00:57:38,015 --> 00:57:39,735
funding rates usually quieten down.

855
00:57:39,835 --> 00:57:44,975
So you get this really nice confluence where everyone just thinks that this boring sideways

856
00:57:44,975 --> 00:57:46,475
nothingness is going to continue.

857
00:57:46,735 --> 00:57:51,655
And what usually happens for me, that's like ding, ding, ding, setting off all these bells

858
00:57:51,655 --> 00:57:56,275
going, guys, market's about to move. The market is ready to go. I don't know when it's going to go,

859
00:57:56,355 --> 00:58:01,795
but we have coiled up this spring that there's no more profit and loss taking happening. The market

860
00:58:01,795 --> 00:58:08,695
has to go somewhere, somewhere else to either make people panic and capitulate losses or rip to the

861
00:58:08,695 --> 00:58:12,435
upside so people start taking profit because we have now reached equilibrium. It's one of my

862
00:58:12,435 --> 00:58:17,195
favorite metrics because there's so much of this like, it's a simple oscillator, but it's got so

863
00:58:17,195 --> 00:58:21,955
much lore and density to it in terms of the actual signal about what it's telling you. It's just

864
00:58:21,955 --> 00:58:27,695
telling you what our investor's doing. It's ready to go. Let's move. I love it. And honestly, I'm

865
00:58:27,695 --> 00:58:32,215
cool either way. Would love a rip for the upside, but I'd also love some cheaper sats. I think that's

866
00:58:32,215 --> 00:58:39,075
the beauty of the mindset shift that happens. It's like, yeah, I love seeing NGU, but I like

867
00:58:39,075 --> 00:58:45,135
seeing number go down as well because that means my dirty fiat buys just a few more sats. I'm

868
00:58:45,135 --> 00:58:48,675
curious on the, just because you mentioned options here and it reminded me of something you mentioned

869
00:58:48,675 --> 00:58:52,875
before the show to talk about the IBIT options data that you started looking at. You want to get

870
00:58:52,875 --> 00:58:57,135
into that a little bit and kind of what that's telling you? Yeah. So I haven't written my piece

871
00:58:57,135 --> 00:59:02,315
on it yet, but it's actually very hard to get good TradFi data. So I've been digging around for ages

872
00:59:02,315 --> 00:59:09,235
to try and find a decent read on the IBIT options chain because my base case was, I know that IBIT

873
00:59:09,235 --> 00:59:13,175
options must be big. They must be significant because we've seen a lot of like the cash and

874
00:59:13,175 --> 00:59:19,555
carry trade where people long the ETF short the futures. Now, the IBIT options went live in

875
00:59:19,555 --> 00:59:25,635
November. If you look at the total flows into all of the ETFs excluding IBIT, they have been dead

876
00:59:25,635 --> 00:59:32,475
flat since January. None of the other ETFs have seen any inflows on net since January. And yet,

877
00:59:32,555 --> 00:59:39,715
the ETF inflows are ripping to the upside. IBIT is now 58% of the AUM in all of the ETFs. It's

878
00:59:39,715 --> 00:59:44,715
just tearing away so i'm looking at this chart being like holy shit the options like that has to

879
00:59:44,715 --> 00:59:48,635
be the options there's no other there's no other reason for it and options tends to be a market

880
00:59:48,635 --> 00:59:54,215
that is winner take all no one wants to trade the second biggest options chain so i was like okay i

881
00:59:54,215 --> 00:59:58,155
gotta go and find because like i'm obviously missing a big part of the leverage in the system

882
00:59:58,155 --> 01:00:04,175
and for me like yes a lot of people know me for my on-chain work but like really i i'm a bitcoin

883
01:00:04,175 --> 01:00:10,255
an analyst on chain is one meaningful but one part of my puzzle futures options but now i've got

884
01:00:10,255 --> 01:00:15,795
options on the etf so like what i love about that in the on-chain world we look at like short-term

885
01:00:15,795 --> 01:00:19,855
holders long-term holders as a good cohort people have been around for a long time and speculators

886
01:00:19,855 --> 01:00:26,075
but we also now have like funding rates that's like real institutions aren't trading funding

887
01:00:26,075 --> 01:00:31,355
rates degenerate gamblers are trading so you've got like the speculators in the crypto native world

888
01:00:31,355 --> 01:00:36,055
and then you can go to the CME. CME is like your buttoned up Mr. Wall Street trading futures over

889
01:00:36,055 --> 01:00:41,415
there. We've got Deribit options and now we've got IBIT options. And both of these are telling

890
01:00:41,415 --> 01:00:45,895
us about these different subsets or cohorts within the market. So we get a bit of a view

891
01:00:45,895 --> 01:00:52,495
of what everyone's doing. Now, I had to rerun the numbers and I may have made calculation errors,

892
01:00:52,595 --> 01:00:55,735
but I'm pretty sure it's right. I've got AI to double check these things for me.

893
01:00:55,735 --> 01:01:01,775
there's like 30 billion dollars in open interest and for a bit of a bit of a sense of scale here

894
01:01:01,775 --> 01:01:08,135
ibit in the since november is now as big if not bigger than deribit so deribit has been like 95

895
01:01:08,135 --> 01:01:15,355
percent market dominance ibit has just exploded out of um by far the biggest in terms of volume

896
01:01:15,355 --> 01:01:22,295
in terms of open interest if you take the ibit um aum so the amount of bitcoin that's in there

897
01:01:22,295 --> 01:01:30,055
the options are now 40 percent so for every ibit btc unit of bitcoin in there there is 40 cents

898
01:01:30,055 --> 01:01:37,035
worth of options open interest applied to these things so the leverage ratio is getting very very

899
01:01:37,035 --> 01:01:41,375
big very very quickly so this was actually a bit of a missing piece for me because i'm like

900
01:01:41,375 --> 01:01:47,415
leverage was already going higher but i'm like i just feel like there's more if you want to talk

901
01:01:47,415 --> 01:01:52,375
about paper Bitcoin, these options are, you know, you could argue that they're paper Bitcoin.

902
01:01:52,795 --> 01:01:57,815
They're also part of Bitcoin maturing. But here's the other thing. You know, these are the two-sided

903
01:01:57,815 --> 01:02:03,215
coins. We are going to see volatility capture strategies, people selling and buying call options

904
01:02:03,215 --> 01:02:07,675
and put options and whatever. This is going to extract volatility from the markets, what they do.

905
01:02:08,055 --> 01:02:12,775
They can also backfire and create volatility spikes if the market wants to rip through them.

906
01:02:12,775 --> 01:02:18,555
So this can also happen. But also, when you've got this big of an options market in like, what,

907
01:02:19,295 --> 01:02:23,715
what, eight months, nine months? When we're this far in and the options are this big,

908
01:02:24,395 --> 01:02:28,615
big capital allocators, if you've got $30 billion worth of total size, they can now hedge

909
01:02:28,615 --> 01:02:34,575
serious risk. It actually makes it much easier for big institutions to allocate when they can hedge

910
01:02:34,575 --> 01:02:42,175
out $100 million and not be concerned. The size of these options, yes, it's leverage in the system.

911
01:02:42,175 --> 01:02:47,975
but it's also insurance. It's a market for insurance. So the big allocators can now buy

912
01:02:47,975 --> 01:02:53,115
Bitcoin knowing that they can spend a little bit of premium to insure the car just in case it

913
01:02:53,115 --> 01:02:58,055
crashes. So that actually is going to reduce the chance they're going to just like market sell

914
01:02:58,055 --> 01:03:02,355
their ETF because they can hedge the risk in the option space and speculators can take that risk.

915
01:03:02,455 --> 01:03:08,475
So really, really interesting dynamic. I still do a big deep dive on it. It's meaningful. It's a

916
01:03:08,475 --> 01:03:12,695
really, really big event. And it kind of shows that Wall Street is absolutely here.

917
01:03:14,495 --> 01:03:18,995
And I mean, is that that's kind of another piece in the puzzle of like decreased potential downside

918
01:03:18,995 --> 01:03:22,135
volatility? Like, I mean, just decreased volatility in general, as you said, it's not

919
01:03:22,135 --> 01:03:26,415
just downside volatility, it's the upside volatility as well, which is that we like the

920
01:03:26,415 --> 01:03:30,675
upside volatility. We don't like the downside volatility so much, but they necessarily must

921
01:03:30,675 --> 01:03:35,195
go hand in hand, right? Totally, totally. And that's the thing. Everything is a pull and

922
01:03:35,195 --> 01:03:36,555
to and fro, right?

923
01:03:36,615 --> 01:03:37,675
Equal and opposite reaction.

924
01:03:38,135 --> 01:03:40,975
You can take volatility out of markets for a while,

925
01:03:41,255 --> 01:03:43,395
but it can come right back again

926
01:03:43,395 --> 01:03:44,715
because all that leverage,

927
01:03:44,895 --> 01:03:46,515
this is what I was talking about sell-side risk before,

928
01:03:47,075 --> 01:03:49,295
when implied volatility gets super low,

929
01:03:50,115 --> 01:03:50,615
everyone goes,

930
01:03:50,775 --> 01:03:51,815
oh, that's all right.

931
01:03:51,855 --> 01:03:52,755
I can take more risk

932
01:03:52,755 --> 01:03:54,015
because the market doesn't go anywhere.

933
01:03:54,175 --> 01:03:56,835
Bitcoin is just a boring old stable coin at 110K.

934
01:03:57,095 --> 01:03:58,575
I'm going to sell on shit.

935
01:03:58,575 --> 01:04:00,075
I sold too many call options.

936
01:04:00,495 --> 01:04:01,615
Bang, away it can go.

937
01:04:01,735 --> 01:04:03,715
So things can really move.

938
01:04:03,715 --> 01:04:14,355
Yes, it may be less frequent and it may not be as high octane all the time, but it can also get people on the wrong side of the boat and things can really start to move because they've got to cover their positions.

939
01:04:14,835 --> 01:04:21,895
And the thing with options, if you're an options writer and you're selling those puts or calls, you have infinite risk.

940
01:04:22,295 --> 01:04:24,415
You have unlimited risk and a limited upside.

941
01:04:24,635 --> 01:04:29,815
So when you're selling options, you have unlimited risk, which means if you've got unlimited risk, you've got to cover.

942
01:04:30,055 --> 01:04:30,735
They don't have a choice.

943
01:04:30,815 --> 01:04:32,455
They've got to get out of those positions if they're wrong.

944
01:04:32,915 --> 01:04:35,335
That's on the directional side.

945
01:04:35,655 --> 01:04:38,255
There's obviously traders who just don't care where the price goes.

946
01:04:38,335 --> 01:04:39,675
They're just extracting volatility.

947
01:04:40,455 --> 01:04:42,455
The market's going to get increasingly complex.

948
01:04:42,715 --> 01:04:50,575
And really, like for me as an analyst, this is amazing because you're kind of watching the true monetization and a market's coming up out of nowhere.

949
01:04:50,715 --> 01:04:52,355
We didn't have EBIT options in November.

950
01:04:52,775 --> 01:04:53,295
Now we do.

951
01:04:53,595 --> 01:04:57,155
Now we're starting to see how Deribit trades relative.

952
01:04:57,295 --> 01:05:02,235
How does a crypto native exchange trade relative to TradFi and start speaking the same language?

953
01:05:02,455 --> 01:05:07,915
you know it's i mean it's really fascinating i guess uh you know bitcoin's uh bitcoin's gone

954
01:05:07,915 --> 01:05:12,175
mainstream your favorite band is now uh now your neighbor likes it too and uh you know it's not a

955
01:05:12,175 --> 01:05:16,935
not cool and hipster anymore but you just you got to deal with it right it's a real thing yeah

956
01:05:16,935 --> 01:05:22,375
so kind of on that trad fi side of things i want to talk a little bit more about the bitcoin treasury

957
01:05:22,375 --> 01:05:26,215
companies because i do think that you mentioned earlier and i completely agree with the analysis

958
01:05:26,215 --> 01:05:31,035
that essentially a lot of the weird sentiment we're seeing just recently even though bitcoin's

959
01:05:31,035 --> 01:05:37,655
at $110,000, $111,000 per coin, which is just wild and seems pretty great to me still.

960
01:05:38,395 --> 01:05:39,875
You see all this negativity.

961
01:05:40,075 --> 01:05:40,835
And I do agree.

962
01:05:40,915 --> 01:05:44,395
I think you're exactly right, is that people were either too, I mean, on the crypto side,

963
01:05:44,455 --> 01:05:47,615
they've been way under allocated to Bitcoin for a long time.

964
01:05:47,735 --> 01:05:48,615
We know that, right?

965
01:05:48,675 --> 01:05:50,195
That's been very obvious.

966
01:05:50,195 --> 01:05:52,255
And I think it's becoming obvious to them now, finally.

967
01:05:52,835 --> 01:05:57,235
But they'll probably still do the same thing over and over again as they claim that whatever

968
01:05:57,235 --> 01:05:59,635
shitcoin they have is going to totally replace Bitcoin.

969
01:05:59,635 --> 01:06:01,835
The flipping is going to happen this time, guys, I promise.

970
01:06:02,875 --> 01:06:08,275
But on the Bitcoin treasury company side, it seems that there's a lot of folks who, again, came in chasing those gains.

971
01:06:08,535 --> 01:06:14,955
I think it was American Hoddle said this the other day on Danny's show when he had Hoddle and Lubka on.

972
01:06:15,455 --> 01:06:20,395
It was basically like people think that they can kind of like teleport or take a time machine to be an OG.

973
01:06:20,795 --> 01:06:28,335
That you can, if you lever up and you take these risks and you kind of gamble on some of these more speculative proxies for Bitcoin,

974
01:06:28,335 --> 01:06:31,595
and that you can somehow go back in time and it'll be just like you bought

975
01:06:31,595 --> 01:06:31,995
Bitcoin,

976
01:06:32,095 --> 01:06:32,235
you know,

977
01:06:32,235 --> 01:06:33,355
in 2015 with,

978
01:06:33,475 --> 01:06:33,615
you know,

979
01:06:33,635 --> 01:06:35,095
or sometime around there.

980
01:06:35,695 --> 01:06:36,295
And he's just like,

981
01:06:36,315 --> 01:06:37,215
that's just not the case.

982
01:06:37,215 --> 01:06:37,775
Like you're,

983
01:06:37,775 --> 01:06:39,675
you're not going to be able to do it and you're probably going to get

984
01:06:39,675 --> 01:06:40,015
wrecked.

985
01:06:40,015 --> 01:06:40,775
And I feel like,

986
01:06:40,775 --> 01:06:41,275
like,

987
01:06:42,115 --> 01:06:42,915
I'm not saying that,

988
01:06:42,915 --> 01:06:43,215
uh,

989
01:06:43,215 --> 01:06:45,975
I think strategy is going to do just fine.

990
01:06:46,195 --> 01:06:46,855
I think,

991
01:06:46,855 --> 01:06:47,255
uh,

992
01:06:47,435 --> 01:06:50,595
meta planet's going to do just fine just because of the size they have a few

993
01:06:50,595 --> 01:06:51,055
others that'll,

994
01:06:51,175 --> 01:06:52,215
that'll do just fine.

995
01:06:52,375 --> 01:06:54,795
The Bitcoin miners that have a lot of Bitcoin in their balance sheet,

996
01:06:54,795 --> 01:06:56,115
I think will be just fine,

997
01:06:56,115 --> 01:07:02,095
but it seems like there is a lot of these kind of smaller ones that are were great for the people

998
01:07:02,095 --> 01:07:07,335
that you know got in uh at the very you know at the ground floor not so great for the people the

999
01:07:07,335 --> 01:07:13,115
retail that bought it thinking it was going to you know 10x overnight and maybe went up a little

1000
01:07:13,115 --> 01:07:17,795
bit and then it dumped back down so how are how are you looking at this is this in any way i mean

1001
01:07:17,795 --> 01:07:23,295
i think this sort of thing was inevitable this was going to happen bitcoin's a success of course

1002
01:07:23,295 --> 01:07:28,075
companies want it. Of course, nation states want it. Everyone wants it. But how are you looking at

1003
01:07:28,075 --> 01:07:32,675
this? Does this factor into your analysis at all in terms of how much money is flowing into Bitcoin

1004
01:07:32,675 --> 01:07:38,755
via these proxies? Or are you paying less attention to this? Yeah. So I've gone through

1005
01:07:38,755 --> 01:07:43,075
the loops and the calculations to just get a bit of a read on my feel for these things.

1006
01:07:43,775 --> 01:07:47,635
There's a number of levels. So the first one is I think we need to make a very clear distinction.

1007
01:07:47,775 --> 01:07:51,035
When I talk about treasury companies, I'm talking about those trying to play the sales

1008
01:07:51,035 --> 01:07:56,155
strategy book, right? If we're looking at just a company that puts Bitcoin in the balance sheet as

1009
01:07:56,155 --> 01:07:59,595
like a savings asset, they're just sweeping cashflow, like our business, we do that,

1010
01:08:00,155 --> 01:08:05,475
that whole different thing. Totally fine. Perfect, perfect solution. We're talking about the entities

1011
01:08:05,475 --> 01:08:10,835
that want to go the all-in approach. Now, if they're going to go the all-in approach, strategy

1012
01:08:10,835 --> 01:08:14,635
is obviously the most all-in, completely and utterly all-in. Their operating business is

1013
01:08:14,635 --> 01:08:21,575
completely irrelevant. They are a Bitcoin entity to their core. MetaPlanet is going from a hotel

1014
01:08:21,575 --> 01:08:27,075
business and they're transitioning away from the operating company towards a Bitcoin treasury

1015
01:08:27,075 --> 01:08:31,475
company. Now, they also have the advantage of being in the Japanese market, right? Which is,

1016
01:08:31,475 --> 01:08:37,275
again, big capital industry. I don't think that we have, like Australia, we just don't need a

1017
01:08:37,275 --> 01:08:41,575
treasury company. There's nothing special about Australian capital markets that would necessitate

1018
01:08:41,575 --> 01:08:49,695
us needing one down here. I can buy a strategy with no problem. And I actually don't need an

1019
01:08:49,695 --> 01:08:55,335
Australian one because when you go to a small scale, so I'm certainly short the idea we need

1020
01:08:55,335 --> 01:08:59,595
one in every jurisdiction. I'm short that idea. I don't think that we do because there is a leak.

1021
01:08:59,955 --> 01:09:05,715
And that leak is anybody who wants to buy a Bitcoin treasury company, they're not going to

1022
01:09:05,715 --> 01:09:10,095
buy the 200th biggest one with 12 Bitcoin on the balance sheet. They're also not going to care if

1023
01:09:10,095 --> 01:09:10,995
You've got 1,000 Bitcoin.

1024
01:09:11,115 --> 01:09:15,515
It just doesn't matter because there's entities out there with several thousand.

1025
01:09:16,275 --> 01:09:20,695
Now, there's another angle of how much buy side of these treasury companies applied.

1026
01:09:21,615 --> 01:09:23,935
I've played around with this, honestly.

1027
01:09:24,555 --> 01:09:25,355
Delete strategy.

1028
01:09:25,735 --> 01:09:28,815
And that's, sorry, if you take away strategy, there's no buy side.

1029
01:09:29,195 --> 01:09:33,615
So many of these big entities, and again, I won't call out names and single them out.

1030
01:09:33,975 --> 01:09:36,095
It's left pocket to right pocket, right?

1031
01:09:36,315 --> 01:09:37,755
One company has a bunch of Bitcoin.

1032
01:09:37,875 --> 01:09:39,235
They move it into a corporate entity.

1033
01:09:39,235 --> 01:09:43,475
they didn't buy anything they moved bitcoin from one entity to another there was a tax

1034
01:09:43,475 --> 01:09:49,115
arbitrage or whatever it was a lot of them haven't actually bought bitcoin and if they have

1035
01:09:49,115 --> 01:09:55,235
we're talking about small potatoes here they're not they're not serious like tens of thousands

1036
01:09:55,235 --> 01:10:00,195
of bitcoins a week it's just not how this is playing out so there's a lot of fugazi there's

1037
01:10:00,195 --> 01:10:05,415
a lot of like weird deals where it's like you know you're a whale i'll take your bitcoin and

1038
01:10:05,415 --> 01:10:07,515
And if we hit certain levels, I'll give you shares.

1039
01:10:07,675 --> 01:10:09,735
Again, left pocket to right pocket.

1040
01:10:10,295 --> 01:10:13,315
If you get on the inside, that's wonderful.

1041
01:10:13,555 --> 01:10:15,375
Most people don't get it on the inside.

1042
01:10:16,235 --> 01:10:22,755
These things are like, who is actually going to buy a 5, 10, 15, $20 million treasury company?

1043
01:10:22,895 --> 01:10:23,735
Here's an exercise.

1044
01:10:24,355 --> 01:10:36,393
Look at the market cap of your favorite treasury company and then go on coin market cap and find how far down and the the shit coin peers that you living with there is no institution that

1045
01:10:36,393 --> 01:10:40,433
wants to do this like i did this for a couple of companies and they're next to companies like like

1046
01:10:40,433 --> 01:10:46,193
tokens like octopus token and like you know um shill me your coin token like all this stupid

1047
01:10:46,193 --> 01:10:52,093
shit you're like this is there's no institutions buying this this company doesn't have access to

1048
01:10:52,093 --> 01:10:58,573
debt. They don't have access to preferred markets. They only have access to selling shares,

1049
01:10:59,013 --> 01:11:03,993
hoping that they're at a premium. And we're watching those premiums just get crushed.

1050
01:11:04,233 --> 01:11:11,753
Now, let's imagine your treasury company number 55 and your premium has gone from 12x when you

1051
01:11:11,753 --> 01:11:20,913
first announced to 1.1 or 0.9. Who's going to buy your stock? Truly, who's actually going to buy

1052
01:11:20,913 --> 01:11:25,653
your stock because most of your investors are trapped at two, three, five, six, 10 MNAVs and

1053
01:11:25,653 --> 01:11:30,213
going, I just want to out of this thing. Give me my money back. Who's going to restart the engines?

1054
01:11:31,013 --> 01:11:36,373
You can't issue debt. You can't issue preferreds. I'm really just like, I'm really short the idea

1055
01:11:36,373 --> 01:11:40,913
that we need many of these things. It's going to be a win or take almost all market in my view.

1056
01:11:41,213 --> 01:11:45,493
There'll be a couple of patches, like even Metaplanet. It's in the maybe bucket for me.

1057
01:11:45,613 --> 01:11:48,553
I think it probably is going to be okay, but I think it's in the maybe bucket.

1058
01:11:48,553 --> 01:11:54,733
can it get back to a 6x premium maybe maybe that's a lot of coin they're going to buy to justify that

1059
01:11:54,733 --> 01:12:00,793
kind of move so um now once you get to the other end of the spectrum they start small with a huge

1060
01:12:00,793 --> 01:12:05,293
premium because going from one bitcoin to two bitcoin is very possible going from two to 20 is

1061
01:12:05,293 --> 01:12:14,113
also possible going from 620 to 1.2 million is a different animal the bigger they get the premiums

1062
01:12:14,113 --> 01:12:21,393
will naturally compress. Metaplanet is a small company with a relatively large premium.

1063
01:12:22,613 --> 01:12:28,813
Strategy is a massive company with a small premium. That's the trajectory. The MNAV,

1064
01:12:28,933 --> 01:12:33,753
gravity, and I've been saying this forever since I first studied strategy,

1065
01:12:34,713 --> 01:12:40,633
it was MicroStrategy at the time, MNAV gravity is towards one in all circumstances. It's where

1066
01:12:40,633 --> 01:12:46,873
it wants to go. So therefore, timing these things is absolutely a function of what is the Bitcoin

1067
01:12:46,873 --> 01:12:49,993
price doing, because that's the beach ball that's inflating underneath the company.

1068
01:12:50,313 --> 01:12:56,313
If that's increasing, then the chance that MNav expands is also higher. If Bitcoin is contracting

1069
01:12:56,313 --> 01:13:03,353
and we're down 10% from the all-time high, some of these TECOs are down 70, 60, 80%.

1070
01:13:03,353 --> 01:13:08,273
We've got our 80% correction, folks. It's just in stock tickers, not in the Bitcoin price.

1071
01:13:08,273 --> 01:13:14,273
that's where I think the damage and the pain is being felt. So I'm really kind of bearish on the

1072
01:13:14,273 --> 01:13:19,293
whole thing. I've also been listening to Danny's podcast. I know he's trying to like work his way

1073
01:13:19,293 --> 01:13:24,213
through it. And every time he's like, I just, I'm not quite there yet. Can you explain this bit?

1074
01:13:24,213 --> 01:13:28,973
I'm like, yeah, man, I'm not there either. It's all fugazi. It's bullshit. There's a handful of

1075
01:13:28,973 --> 01:13:33,293
these companies that make a lot of sense. I'm very short the idea we need thousands of these things,

1076
01:13:33,293 --> 01:13:39,013
even hundreds no i'm i and you know again i think that you're you made the important distinction

1077
01:13:39,013 --> 01:13:44,213
at the start which is there's a huge difference between a business that is just stacking bitcoin

1078
01:13:44,213 --> 01:13:49,033
with you know excess uh cash flows that they want to be able to save to preserve and grow their

1079
01:13:49,033 --> 01:13:53,793
purchasing power that's great and prudent and and you know any business it would behoove them to do

1080
01:13:53,793 --> 01:13:58,833
that two thumbs up people who are yeah fantastic like that is natural and you should do that

1081
01:13:58,833 --> 01:14:04,433
versus these companies that are like, it's, it's a, it's a marketing play for them. It's,

1082
01:14:04,493 --> 01:14:08,093
it's, you know, they're, they're, they want to be able to pump their stocks. And a lot of times

1083
01:14:08,093 --> 01:14:12,733
it's either, you know, it's because they've got a failing or flailing company and they, you know,

1084
01:14:12,813 --> 01:14:16,773
you need just, just one last pump, bro, you know, just, just to juice it a little bit, you know?

1085
01:14:16,873 --> 01:14:20,233
And of course I know a lot of the people who are in some of these other companies too,

1086
01:14:20,233 --> 01:14:23,473
as I'm sure you do as well. And like, I know really great people in them and it's,

1087
01:14:23,573 --> 01:14:27,173
this is not a knock on them at all. It's just, I agree with you that I think this is a, you know,

1088
01:14:27,173 --> 01:14:32,213
winner take all winner take most type of situation strategy I think is pretty

1089
01:14:32,213 --> 01:14:38,173
uncatchable at this point like they like I mean maybe not but boy that would take a lot of fiat

1090
01:14:38,173 --> 01:14:42,493
to catch them at this point and and he's still going right and he has other instruments on top

1091
01:14:42,493 --> 01:14:47,413
of this right it's and it's kind of pioneering that side of things and I think that honestly

1092
01:14:47,413 --> 01:14:50,673
what I keep beating the drum about for folks is like I have no problem with these strategy

1093
01:14:50,673 --> 01:14:55,753
companies I own you know some small exposure to some of them with money I'm expecting to lose and

1094
01:14:55,753 --> 01:14:59,773
have you know uh suffered losses from already especially relative to bitcoin because i'm a

1095
01:14:59,773 --> 01:15:03,573
terrible trader and i know this but i like to punish myself every now and again just to remind

1096
01:15:03,573 --> 01:15:07,793
myself it reminds you oh it's so important to remind yourself with a few letters you got to do

1097
01:15:07,793 --> 01:15:11,993
it you got to you oh you think you're you think you might be smart like no no let's get punished

1098
01:15:11,993 --> 01:15:17,233
by the market a little bit because you're not and that's why the like you should just stack bitcoin

1099
01:15:17,233 --> 01:15:23,653
you should just stack bitcoin get a decent sized utxo transfer it to cold storage and and then you

1100
01:15:23,653 --> 01:15:27,073
can just live your life and not worry about it because you're, if you're like me, you're,

1101
01:15:27,213 --> 01:15:31,993
you're probably not a great trader. You may have made a couple of decent trades, uh, over time,

1102
01:15:31,993 --> 01:15:36,493
but most of my decent trades have just been buying things and then holding them. It's not,

1103
01:15:36,573 --> 01:15:40,593
you know, it's like timing the market is really, really hard. It's, it is really, really hard.

1104
01:15:40,813 --> 01:15:45,353
And we're in uncharted territories here. And so I think it's like, it's one, again,

1105
01:15:45,353 --> 01:15:50,193
I don't tell anyone what to do with their money, but like for me, my strategy has remained, you

1106
01:15:50,193 --> 01:15:55,933
know besides a little bit of play money that i'm very prepared to lose it's like nope i'm gonna

1107
01:15:55,933 --> 01:16:00,433
stack bitcoin i'm gonna try to create value i'm gonna podcast really hard and you know fiat mine

1108
01:16:00,433 --> 01:16:07,033
really hard and i'm gonna i'm gonna stack sats and i'm gonna call storage yep and odell really

1109
01:16:07,033 --> 01:16:11,553
gave the most sage advice with that because i think that that is legitimately the best strategy

1110
01:16:11,553 --> 01:16:17,293
unless you are able to get in unless you're a somebody who is throwing some serious coin at

1111
01:16:17,293 --> 01:16:22,473
these companies in the, you know, fundraising rounds, you're going to have a really hard time

1112
01:16:22,473 --> 01:16:28,153
outperforming Bitcoin on any timeframe that is longer than, you know, less, I mean, I don't know,

1113
01:16:28,373 --> 01:16:32,173
longer than a year, four years. Yeah. Like it's just going to be really hard for you to outperform

1114
01:16:32,173 --> 01:16:37,273
Bitcoin. You're not up from Bitcoin right now. And you probably almost certainly won't. Maybe

1115
01:16:37,273 --> 01:16:40,893
there's going to be a couple of exceptions. And I think strategy may outperform over, over four

1116
01:16:40,893 --> 01:16:46,193
years. Like that's what, you know, their goal is essentially. And they've got a good chance at it.

1117
01:16:46,193 --> 01:16:50,973
couple others maybe most of them i think you're gonna have a really hard time doing that you may

1118
01:16:50,973 --> 01:16:55,733
trade and the other game that people are playing it all depends where you buy on the mnav let's

1119
01:16:55,733 --> 01:17:02,833
imagine a world where strategy sees its mnav go to 0.9 0.95 yeah it's probably gonna outperform

1120
01:17:02,833 --> 01:17:08,213
bitcoin on the return right on the return higher i don't know where if that happens bitcoin's

1121
01:17:08,213 --> 01:17:12,893
probably in a bit of a dumps as well but the timing of that you know and this is the thing

1122
01:17:12,893 --> 01:17:16,393
yes, I wouldn't say that these things are shit coins,

1123
01:17:16,833 --> 01:17:19,093
but let's just strip away the fact

1124
01:17:19,093 --> 01:17:20,433
that they're orange washed companies.

1125
01:17:21,073 --> 01:17:22,753
The idea is that you want to buy them

1126
01:17:22,753 --> 01:17:24,113
for the three month pump.

1127
01:17:24,373 --> 01:17:25,693
They're full of telegram groups

1128
01:17:25,693 --> 01:17:26,933
that if you're not on the inside,

1129
01:17:27,033 --> 01:17:27,853
you're going to get smoked.

1130
01:17:28,693 --> 01:17:32,193
Like the characteristics of how they operate

1131
01:17:32,193 --> 01:17:34,393
is shit coining.

1132
01:17:34,693 --> 01:17:37,993
It literally has all the properties of shit coins.

1133
01:17:38,093 --> 01:17:39,493
So it's like functionally,

1134
01:17:39,633 --> 01:17:41,553
the machine is what it does.

1135
01:17:41,673 --> 01:17:42,213
What are they?

1136
01:17:42,893 --> 01:17:43,453
They're shit coins.

1137
01:17:43,593 --> 01:17:44,813
That's what they are.

1138
01:17:45,193 --> 01:17:50,053
And really the secret sauce of any of this stuff, go in eyes wide open.

1139
01:17:50,233 --> 01:17:54,413
It is all about the MNAV that you are stacking at.

1140
01:17:54,653 --> 01:17:56,113
This is literally what Saylor does too.

1141
01:17:56,473 --> 01:18:00,433
He doesn't want to sell when the MNAV is 0.9 because it's not favorable to him.

1142
01:18:00,913 --> 01:18:02,473
He does when it's at three or two.

1143
01:18:02,613 --> 01:18:05,733
So therefore you can start to say, well, there's only so high this thing can go.

1144
01:18:05,733 --> 01:18:11,833
So if I'm buying it at MNAV of 0.9, then if it goes to 1.5, I'm very happy.

1145
01:18:11,833 --> 01:18:16,173
If I buy it 1.5 and it goes to 1, I'm wrecked.

1146
01:18:16,333 --> 01:18:20,933
So you are actually trading the MNAV premium and you're trading the Bitcoin price.

1147
01:18:21,133 --> 01:18:22,413
It's a double-edged sword.

1148
01:18:23,193 --> 01:18:28,373
And as you can see, 10% down the Bitcoin price means a 60% down and a MNAV compression from

1149
01:18:28,373 --> 01:18:29,173
6 to 1.

1150
01:18:30,173 --> 01:18:31,673
It's tough, right?

1151
01:18:31,713 --> 01:18:32,853
It's really, really tough.

1152
01:18:34,173 --> 01:18:34,653
Yeah.

1153
01:18:34,653 --> 01:18:42,633
And I think, again, it's like, I get it because I would love to get in a time machine and go back to being an OG.

1154
01:18:42,713 --> 01:18:48,133
I would love to go back and buy Bitcoin the first time I ignored Bitcoin like an idiot in 2014, right?

1155
01:18:48,513 --> 01:18:49,533
But I wasn't ready.

1156
01:18:49,673 --> 01:18:50,473
I didn't deserve it yet.

1157
01:18:50,653 --> 01:18:52,213
I wasn't even close to deserving it.

1158
01:18:52,293 --> 01:18:54,733
I didn't deserve it in 2017 when I ignored it again.

1159
01:18:55,113 --> 01:19:00,773
Like, I didn't deserve it until I actually started doing the work and going down the rabbit hole during the COVID times.

1160
01:19:00,913 --> 01:19:03,113
Like, that's when I finally earned it, right?

1161
01:19:03,113 --> 01:19:09,073
up until then it's like no no like you're not gonna you you don't deserve to teleport to be

1162
01:19:09,073 --> 01:19:14,133
an og you don't deserve it anyway it's okay you you we get bitcoin at the price we deserve and

1163
01:19:14,133 --> 01:19:20,973
you can live with that and trying to play these games to you know reenact that og moment it it's

1164
01:19:20,973 --> 01:19:25,433
just gonna it's gonna leave you in some pain and you know the secret sauce is i mean you you know

1165
01:19:25,433 --> 01:19:30,493
the answer to this but basically daily dca you know why because if you start daily dcaing and

1166
01:19:30,493 --> 01:19:35,153
like with VibeCoded and played around to try and like, even a lot of the tools that I use,

1167
01:19:35,433 --> 01:19:42,433
they're fantastic at picking tops and bottoms. Even if you like save your daily DCA and you only buy

1168
01:19:42,433 --> 01:19:47,813
the absolute bottom of these things, you might only beat it by like five, 10%. That's like a good

1169
01:19:47,813 --> 01:19:54,313
run. Daily DCA from the moment that you like work out, oh, Bitcoin. Once you work that out,

1170
01:19:54,393 --> 01:20:00,293
just being on like a daily DCA wagon, that is how you teleport because you're then getting the

1171
01:20:00,293 --> 01:20:05,833
most average price from that point on and it destroys everything else and the reason why we

1172
01:20:05,833 --> 01:20:11,993
actually tried to back test and find out like why is it so just unbeatable it's because when bitcoin

1173
01:20:11,993 --> 01:20:18,813
actually goes when it rips it spends most of its time doing absolutely nothing it's dead boring

1174
01:20:18,813 --> 01:20:26,573
drives you mad but there's like five to six days ten days in the whole cycle where it just rips

1175
01:20:26,573 --> 01:20:30,273
and all these people who are trying to trade in and out and getting in and out.

1176
01:20:30,693 --> 01:20:33,453
If you miss, I ran this study a little while back.

1177
01:20:33,493 --> 01:20:37,533
If you miss those 10 best days, you are down on the whole cycle.

1178
01:20:37,653 --> 01:20:38,393
You make zero money.

1179
01:20:38,573 --> 01:20:42,773
Like your Bitcoin cycle chart is just straight to the floor.

1180
01:20:43,293 --> 01:20:47,193
If you're there for those 10 days, you get the whole return profile.

1181
01:20:47,733 --> 01:20:51,313
So once Bitcoin moves, it like literally reprices.

1182
01:20:51,493 --> 01:20:52,713
It just goes to a new altitude.

1183
01:20:53,033 --> 01:20:55,073
And that's what I think happened when we went up to 100.

1184
01:20:55,073 --> 01:20:59,033
from 75 to 100, we repriced, we now belong up here, right?

1185
01:20:59,053 --> 01:21:02,333
When we went from 40K and the ETS went live to 73,

1186
01:21:02,773 --> 01:21:04,293
that was a repricing event.

1187
01:21:04,413 --> 01:21:05,653
New altitude, new level.

1188
01:21:06,173 --> 01:21:06,633
See you later.

1189
01:21:06,733 --> 01:21:07,433
Thank you very much.

1190
01:21:08,053 --> 01:21:09,973
Daily DCA is how you teleport back in time

1191
01:21:09,973 --> 01:21:12,293
because it gives you, since you worked it out,

1192
01:21:12,533 --> 01:21:14,113
the most average price from that point onwards.

1193
01:21:14,193 --> 01:21:14,753
It's the best way.

1194
01:21:15,393 --> 01:21:16,473
Consistency is the secret.

1195
01:21:16,613 --> 01:21:18,293
That's actually the answer to this whole thing.

1196
01:21:19,193 --> 01:21:20,513
I mean, you know, it's the old cliche.

1197
01:21:20,773 --> 01:21:23,193
It's time in the market, not timing the market, right?

1198
01:21:23,193 --> 01:21:25,593
I mean, it's, it's just like, it's the reason these things are cliched.

1199
01:21:25,653 --> 01:21:27,193
It's because it's, they're, they're true.

1200
01:21:27,193 --> 01:21:29,513
Like they're, you know, that's, that's, that's why they're there.

1201
01:21:30,113 --> 01:21:34,753
You know, it's, it's, I think people have a, I was just talking about this in the literature

1202
01:21:34,753 --> 01:21:38,613
recently, people have difficulty realizing that it can just be that simple.

1203
01:21:38,813 --> 01:21:41,593
Like that the answer isn't some complex process.

1204
01:21:41,593 --> 01:21:43,533
The answer isn't jumping through all these different hoops.

1205
01:21:43,533 --> 01:21:45,053
It's just like, set it and forget it.

1206
01:21:45,053 --> 01:21:48,933
And, you know, sit on your hands, you know, like just little, do less, right.

1207
01:21:48,973 --> 01:21:49,433
Do less.

1208
01:21:49,433 --> 01:21:53,653
because we've been taught to think that we have to do all these things and jump through all these

1209
01:21:53,653 --> 01:21:58,893
hoops just to have a chance at beating the you know the rate of fiat debasement right and so i so

1210
01:21:58,893 --> 01:22:02,753
i get it why like it's hard for me to just sit on my hands and do nothing and that's why i give

1211
01:22:02,753 --> 01:22:06,413
myself you know a little bit of money that i'm like you're probably going to lose this dude and

1212
01:22:06,413 --> 01:22:10,813
if you don't you better get it into bitcoin you know because otherwise if you don't put it into

1213
01:22:10,813 --> 01:22:14,913
bitcoin you haven't taken you know uh any real profits like you're just you're still kind of in

1214
01:22:14,913 --> 01:22:19,233
fiat land and pay your taxes and do all that. And, and at the end of that, maybe you've,

1215
01:22:19,233 --> 01:22:24,093
what outperformed Bitcoin by how much, maybe a couple of percent if you did it really well,

1216
01:22:24,093 --> 01:22:29,173
but like, you know, so again, it's a reminder, but like you can just, you can just daily DCA

1217
01:22:29,173 --> 01:22:33,233
and you'll, you'll do great, but that's hard. It's hard to do nothing.

1218
01:22:33,233 --> 01:22:37,153
And the amount of, um, the amount of dot eats in my time, they've been like, oh, but you can't do

1219
01:22:37,153 --> 01:22:41,553
anything with your Bitcoin. You're like, I know, I know that's, yeah, it's great. Isn't it? I love

1220
01:22:41,553 --> 01:22:44,873
it. That's exactly the right thing. I don't want to do anything with it. Like, why don't I move my

1221
01:22:44,873 --> 01:22:49,873
shit around all the time. It's like, I just want to pine hold, man. My favorite book, if you are

1222
01:22:49,873 --> 01:22:55,993
interested in market psychology, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is just a great read just

1223
01:22:55,993 --> 01:23:01,613
in general, but it's my favorite book on markets because I've read plenty of trading psychology

1224
01:23:01,613 --> 01:23:08,053
textbooks or just people are pining on it. It's all just rehashing the stories told in that book.

1225
01:23:08,693 --> 01:23:12,793
And he's got this great line that I refer to all the time where he goes, I'll paraphrase,

1226
01:23:12,793 --> 01:23:16,613
was like, I never made money in the markets buying and selling and trading this thing.

1227
01:23:17,113 --> 01:23:21,153
I made most of my money by sitting tight and doing nothing. You got that? Sitting tight and

1228
01:23:21,153 --> 01:23:24,953
doing nothing. It is, I mean, you talk to any great investor and they'll say, yeah,

1229
01:23:24,973 --> 01:23:28,533
I didn't make any money from like trying to swing trade in an hour. It's like,

1230
01:23:28,753 --> 01:23:32,513
what does Warren Buffett do? And again, sure, he doesn't understand Bitcoin, but I mean,

1231
01:23:32,573 --> 01:23:39,193
he found high value companies that he did the work on and he just buys a stack of them when

1232
01:23:39,193 --> 01:23:44,593
they need capital and then he just sits on it forever. What a great strategy, right? The less

1233
01:23:44,593 --> 01:23:50,413
you do, the better off you're going to do because once you know what you're betting on, right? And

1234
01:23:50,413 --> 01:23:55,953
really for me, I'm betting on Bitcoin, a little bit of gold. That's my bet. And I just watch that

1235
01:23:55,953 --> 01:24:02,253
basket really, really, really closely. I mean, I don't experience the volatility. To me, it's a

1236
01:24:02,253 --> 01:24:04,853
puzzle. I'm just trying to work out like, which way do I think it's going to go next? It's not

1237
01:24:04,853 --> 01:24:08,453
actually about being like, oh, I want to give the right calls. It's like, to me, it's just like a

1238
01:24:08,453 --> 01:24:13,033
fascinating puzzle that's always changing and I want to keep solving it. It's a hobby for me.

1239
01:24:13,753 --> 01:24:17,813
Just sit tight. Let the market do its thing. Bitcoin's kicking ass. It's going to continue

1240
01:24:17,813 --> 01:24:22,953
to kick ass. ShopSolidation has a beautiful way of getting people to sell their Bitcoin out of

1241
01:24:22,953 --> 01:24:27,573
boredom and frustration. Don't be the dude that loses it because of boredom and frustration.

1242
01:24:27,573 --> 01:24:32,813
Because if you miss those 10 days, you miss what this whole thing is about, which is just like

1243
01:24:32,813 --> 01:24:37,673
being there for those exciting repricing events and lots and lots and lots of boredom where you

1244
01:24:37,673 --> 01:24:43,233
get to go and live your life which which is kind of the whole point right of having better money so

1245
01:24:43,233 --> 01:24:48,173
you can actually don't have to have a second job being a investor trader gambler you can just go

1246
01:24:48,173 --> 01:24:53,033
and live your life uh so yeah and touch a lot of grass and spend time with your family that's like

1247
01:24:53,033 --> 01:24:57,953
that is literally what it's all about and get plenty of sunshine as well and walk uh so maybe

1248
01:24:57,953 --> 01:25:03,753
last thing and then i'll i'll let you because this has been as usual extremely information dense and

1249
01:25:03,753 --> 01:25:04,593
I appreciate this.

1250
01:25:04,693 --> 01:25:06,153
Super stoked to be back in the show.

1251
01:25:06,473 --> 01:25:07,033
Is there,

1252
01:25:07,213 --> 01:25:10,573
is there anything else that you're like really watching that,

1253
01:25:10,653 --> 01:25:14,073
that is kind of like behaving in an unexpected way?

1254
01:25:14,113 --> 01:25:16,113
Maybe that something that you're looking at,

1255
01:25:16,133 --> 01:25:18,073
any of these signals that you're looking at where you're saying,

1256
01:25:18,193 --> 01:25:22,173
this is something that's a little bit like I wasn't expecting this or I

1257
01:25:22,173 --> 01:25:22,413
don't,

1258
01:25:22,473 --> 01:25:22,593
you know,

1259
01:25:22,593 --> 01:25:24,993
this is giving me signals that I'm not exactly sure to interpret anything

1260
01:25:24,993 --> 01:25:28,393
that's kind of like really out of the ordinary or surprising in terms of

1261
01:25:28,393 --> 01:25:29,613
this current time in the market.

1262
01:25:29,873 --> 01:25:30,273
And,

1263
01:25:30,353 --> 01:25:31,513
and these many,

1264
01:25:31,513 --> 01:25:31,793
you know,

1265
01:25:31,793 --> 01:25:33,473
these myriad signals that you look at.

1266
01:25:33,753 --> 01:25:52,193
Yeah. The main one is actually the fees. There's just no one transacting on chain. Like blocks are mostly empty. So generally speaking, and we can wade into it if we want, but a lot of people say that like high fees are a bad thing for adoption.

1267
01:25:52,193 --> 01:25:58,893
whenever i look at the chart and i look at fees versus the market cap the market cap rips to the

1268
01:25:58,893 --> 01:26:04,313
upside when fees are high because when people are using bitcoin it's a good thing highly congested

1269
01:26:04,313 --> 01:26:09,913
blocks means people are using it now in our current environment fees have been dead since i'm gonna

1270
01:26:09,913 --> 01:26:17,293
say february maybe march let's just to be safe i'll say april since that sell-off in april fees

1271
01:26:17,293 --> 01:26:23,933
has just been dead. Now, on-chain transaction volume is actually quite high. So we've got very

1272
01:26:23,933 --> 01:26:29,893
few transactions, but lots of big Bitcoins moving around. Now, obviously some of these are these

1273
01:26:29,893 --> 01:26:37,173
big whales, but they're also like, you only move 24,000 Bitcoin once or twice. Go to an OTC desk,

1274
01:26:37,253 --> 01:26:41,093
go to an exchange, it'll get consolidated somewhere and then it's done. It's part of the mix.

1275
01:26:41,093 --> 01:26:52,533
So we're just seeing consistently very, very high transaction volume, trending higher, multiple billions of dollars a day, but very few transactions.

1276
01:26:53,373 --> 01:26:55,533
So this is a very interesting dynamic.

1277
01:26:55,753 --> 01:26:59,253
So generally speaking, Bitcoin has what's called a positive skew.

1278
01:26:59,773 --> 01:27:04,453
When you look at the statistics of how things work, median represents the majority.

1279
01:27:04,453 --> 01:27:06,753
It's where the most number of people are.

1280
01:27:06,753 --> 01:27:11,933
and the mean, the average, can be skewed by very, very large things. That's why when we look at

1281
01:27:11,933 --> 01:27:16,713
housing, you don't want it to get skewed by the multi-million dollar mansions because there's not

1282
01:27:16,713 --> 01:27:21,473
as many of them, but they're worth a shitload more than all the other ones. Now, in the Bitcoin world,

1283
01:27:21,573 --> 01:27:26,033
it's always had this dynamic and it's still true, but lots and lots of retail transactions,

1284
01:27:26,033 --> 01:27:32,633
lots of $100 and $1,000 and $10,000, a handful of billion dollars, right, transactions.

1285
01:27:32,633 --> 01:27:40,733
what we're seeing at the moment is less of the median there's much far fewer retail type behavior

1286
01:27:40,733 --> 01:27:44,913
there's a lot more even though if the whales i would say they're probably a little bit higher

1287
01:27:44,913 --> 01:27:50,093
but their dominance is much much bigger because there's just less of the retail so i've been

1288
01:27:50,093 --> 01:27:55,193
trying to puzzle over this i don't spend too much time like worrying about it but we definitely have

1289
01:27:55,193 --> 01:28:01,852
fewer plebs moving coins around now some just like ideas of what could cause it maybe lightning

1290
01:28:01,852 --> 01:28:07,533
maybe but i don't think so because it's going to be a small factor but i don't think that's like 90

1291
01:28:07,533 --> 01:28:12,233
of the problem i don't think plebs are moving around 90 of the value on lightning maybe some

1292
01:28:12,233 --> 01:28:16,913
of it uh maybe there's less people dcaing i definitely think there's less speculators

1293
01:28:16,913 --> 01:28:22,073
probably fewer people are sending their coins in and out of binance to trade shitcoin a and shitcoin

1294
01:28:22,073 --> 01:28:28,553
b and treasury companies maybe they're speculating over there instead i think my my like biggest

1295
01:28:28,553 --> 01:28:32,553
argument would be that there's just less speculation using on-chain Bitcoin,

1296
01:28:32,973 --> 01:28:38,753
retail-sized speculation. I think that's the case. I also think that the altcoiners don't

1297
01:28:38,753 --> 01:28:44,753
quite understand that, and I'm pretty sure this is still true, FTX really, really did a mess.

1298
01:28:45,213 --> 01:28:52,553
I don't think altcoiners really understand how, I think forever, the damage for that industry is.

1299
01:28:52,553 --> 01:28:56,053
I just don't think people care anymore. This is why they can't get any of their tokens to

1300
01:28:56,053 --> 01:29:00,613
actually get lift off because no one actually cares anymore so i think the speculative side

1301
01:29:00,613 --> 01:29:05,993
is the main reason and i see it from a few different lenses but definitely just the dead

1302
01:29:05,993 --> 01:29:11,173
quiet chain whilst we're at all-time high and honestly aside from you know there's a few things

1303
01:29:11,173 --> 01:29:16,093
i'm like yeah i'm cautiously watching and i am cautious at the moment but i'm not bearish i'm

1304
01:29:16,093 --> 01:29:22,113
i mean the bears haven't even taken out my first line of defense it's about 109k they're not even

1305
01:29:22,113 --> 01:29:25,873
below that. So like, it's hard for me to be too bearish, but like the chain's just quiet.

1306
01:29:26,113 --> 01:29:29,833
So that's the main thing that I'm like, that's interesting. That's intriguing. And it's been

1307
01:29:29,833 --> 01:29:33,833
that way for a while. So I don't know if that's going to exert force at some point,

1308
01:29:33,873 --> 01:29:37,593
but that's definitely one I'm watching. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's basically been,

1309
01:29:37,633 --> 01:29:42,313
been cheap as hell to transact on Bitcoin all, all summer long. I mean, longer than that,

1310
01:29:42,333 --> 01:29:46,753
even it's been, it's pretty wild. It's been a great time to, if you want to consolidate UTXOs

1311
01:29:46,753 --> 01:29:50,913
or move things around, it's a, been a heck of a time to do that, but apparently not a ton of

1312
01:29:50,913 --> 01:29:57,613
people taking advantage of it. But yeah, it's, it's, it's interesting. Well, I want to thank

1313
01:29:57,613 --> 01:30:02,953
you again. This was fantastic. Always giving me new things to think about. And I always appreciate

1314
01:30:02,953 --> 01:30:05,933
the way that you break things down for folks. Cause I think it's just in a really digestible

1315
01:30:05,933 --> 01:30:10,633
manner and you always come back to, Hey, just, you know, like keep it simple, stupid and, and,

1316
01:30:10,633 --> 01:30:15,593
and stack Bitcoin, like, which I think is the best message of all. Yeah. Embrace the chop

1317
01:30:15,593 --> 01:30:19,993
solidation. It's, I love the smell of chop solidation in the morning. Let's, let's, let's

1318
01:30:19,993 --> 01:30:26,533
get some more of it. Where do you want to send folks? They should subscribe to your newsletter,

1319
01:30:26,693 --> 01:30:29,773
but yeah, send them anywhere you want to or anything new you're working on that you want to

1320
01:30:29,773 --> 01:30:34,693
pitch out there. Yeah. So head over to checkonchain.com so you can subscribe to our newsletter.

1321
01:30:34,693 --> 01:30:39,293
But also with all the charts I talked about, I mean, granted, it's a bit of a mess in terms of

1322
01:30:39,293 --> 01:30:44,553
the site. It's a handwritten HTML by yours truly, but literally every Bitcoin chart that I use in my

1323
01:30:44,553 --> 01:30:49,453
newsletter and like my daily analysis, it's all free. It's all there. We've got ETFs. We've got

1324
01:30:49,453 --> 01:30:54,993
strategy. We've got IBIT options now. We get all sorts of stuff. It's a maze of things you can find.

1325
01:30:55,153 --> 01:30:59,913
And that's all free. All those charts are free. So jump in there, play around. I try to make the

1326
01:30:59,913 --> 01:31:04,673
charts fairly self-explanatory. When something bad's happening, the chart lights up red. I try

1327
01:31:04,673 --> 01:31:10,233
to simplify these things. But it's a good way just to familiarize yourself with, again, even if you're

1328
01:31:10,233 --> 01:31:14,393
not a trader, I think this is the one thing I want to leave people with. I don't talk to traders. I

1329
01:31:14,393 --> 01:31:18,093
actually don't care that much about traders. I don't write for traders. I write for hodlers

1330
01:31:18,093 --> 01:31:20,413
because there's a gap in the market of like,

1331
01:31:20,593 --> 01:31:21,813
we're all long this thing.

1332
01:31:21,953 --> 01:31:24,313
We're like a max long this weird internet money.

1333
01:31:24,833 --> 01:31:27,852
Just understanding why it moves the way it does.

1334
01:31:27,993 --> 01:31:29,693
When you see narratives on Twitter,

1335
01:31:29,913 --> 01:31:32,193
like can you actually back that up with data

1336
01:31:32,193 --> 01:31:33,093
or is it just people going,

1337
01:31:33,193 --> 01:31:34,553
oh no, price should be higher because.

1338
01:31:34,852 --> 01:31:36,073
It's like, okay, Mr. Central Planner,

1339
01:31:36,073 --> 01:31:37,773
what should the price actually be?

1340
01:31:38,213 --> 01:31:40,593
You can kind of distill these narratives and say,

1341
01:31:40,753 --> 01:31:43,613
is it actually happening or is this all just fugazi?

1342
01:31:44,193 --> 01:31:46,213
And that's really what I find so interesting.

1343
01:31:46,433 --> 01:31:48,053
So it's about helping navigate

1344
01:31:48,053 --> 01:31:52,352
the volatility and just understand why the market does what it does because it's a it's a fascinating

1345
01:31:52,352 --> 01:31:59,573
puzzle uh yeah amen to that and it's uh you know while you're sitting on your hands and not trying

1346
01:31:59,573 --> 01:32:03,673
to trade this thing you got to do something so you may as well figure out uh you know why it's

1347
01:32:03,673 --> 01:32:10,033
moving the way it's moving as much as you can uh you'll learn about checkmate yeah exactly i appreciate

1348
01:32:10,033 --> 01:32:15,213
you man appreciate the work that you do and uh yeah uh thanks for this time and thanks to everybody

1349
01:32:15,213 --> 01:32:16,633
who joined on the live stream.

1350
01:32:16,693 --> 01:32:17,653
This was kind of impromptu.

1351
01:32:17,733 --> 01:32:18,793
You're already living in the future

1352
01:32:18,793 --> 01:32:20,193
there down under.

1353
01:32:20,333 --> 01:32:21,393
So you're a day ahead of me.

1354
01:32:21,433 --> 01:32:22,352
I don't know if the price is different

1355
01:32:22,352 --> 01:32:23,473
for you over there in the future,

1356
01:32:23,473 --> 01:32:25,273
but I think we're still seeing the same price.

1357
01:32:25,833 --> 01:32:27,713
But thanks to everybody who joined today in the US.

1358
01:32:27,713 --> 01:32:30,953
Well, boy, that sounds nice

1359
01:32:30,953 --> 01:32:33,693
when they denominated in your, you know,

1360
01:32:33,933 --> 01:32:35,393
Fiat Cuck Bucks.

1361
01:32:35,913 --> 01:32:36,293
Yeah, mate.

1362
01:32:36,473 --> 01:32:38,193
We'll be over 200K Aussie dollars

1363
01:32:38,193 --> 01:32:39,153
by the time we talk next.

1364
01:32:40,033 --> 01:32:40,613
There we go.

1365
01:32:40,773 --> 01:32:42,093
I look forward to it

1366
01:32:42,093 --> 01:32:44,033
and we'll see where we're at on the US side.

1367
01:32:44,033 --> 01:32:45,493
But it's going to be an interesting ride.

1368
01:32:46,193 --> 01:32:48,373
And yeah, appreciate you helping us break it down.

1369
01:32:49,053 --> 01:32:49,913
Talk to you soon, man.

1370
01:32:50,393 --> 01:32:50,813
Thanks, Matt.

1371
01:33:14,033 --> 01:33:20,793
dot net slash Walker and this podcast at primal dot net slash titcoin on X YouTube and Rumble.

1372
01:33:20,953 --> 01:33:27,433
Just search at Walker America and find this podcast on X and Instagram at titcoin podcast.

1373
01:33:27,553 --> 01:33:33,093
Head to the show notes to grab sponsor links, head to substack.com slash at Walker America

1374
01:33:33,093 --> 01:33:38,753
to get episodes emailed to you and head to Bitcoin podcast dot net for everything else.

1375
01:33:38,753 --> 01:33:42,833
Bitcoin is scarce, but podcasts are abundant.

1376
01:33:43,433 --> 01:33:48,193
So thank you for spending your scarce time listening to The Bitcoin Podcast.

1377
01:33:48,993 --> 01:33:51,493
Until next time, stay free.