If you look at rising global M2 as monetary inflation, it's almost like a measure of currency debasement, right?
Then Bitcoin is basically measuring. Bitcoin is an expression of that, of how much currency debasement is happening in the economy.
And it's the best way to play it because it's the most tied to it, which Jack Mahler brings this up to.
This is Bitcoin's purpose. This is why Bitcoin exists.
It makes sense that it's the most pure expression because Bitcoin is the antithesis of fiat currency and money printing.
And so you want to play that. And again, I kind of agree with that.
That's what I would take away from this. Bitcoin is very closely tied to the amount of currency debasement happening in the world.
It's also probably the best way to play it.
And if you look at the things we talked about earlier with the debt problems and the most likely scenario,
which is what I believe is currency debasement, when these governments are going to, central banks are going to end up doing,
and what this data is showing you is that, yeah, you should probably protect yourself with purchasing some Bitcoin as a way to hedge against that.
And that's just not me saying it now. It's also BlackRock. JP Morgan Chase just put out a research report that called Bitcoin the debasement trade.
I wouldn't say it's a trade because the basement is not going to stop.
Greetings and salutations, my fellow plebs. My name is Walker, and this is the Bitcoin podcast.
The Bitcoin time chain is 865961, and the value of one Bitcoin is still one Bitcoin.
Today's episode is Bitcoin talk, where I talk with my guest about Bitcoin and whatever else comes up.
Today, that guest is Sam Callahan. Sam is a brilliant macro analyst who recently worked on a report with Lynn Alden called Bitcoin,
a global liquidity barometer, which I've linked in the show notes, and we dig deep into this report today.
But we also get into the next wave of Bitcoin adoption, orange pilling, the shifting over to a window around Bitcoin,
the US and global macro environment, fiscal dominance, whether anything stops this train.
Social security as a giant Ponzi scheme, and a whole lot more.
Sam also just got married this weekend, proving that while Bitcoin may not help you get a girlfriend,
it certainly can help you find a wife. Before we dive in, do me a favor and subscribe to the Bitcoin podcast,
wherever you're watching or listening. Give this show a boost on Fountain if you find it valuable,
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You can earn sats just for listening to the show. Check out BitcoinPodcast.net for episodes and additional resources,
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and send an email to hello at BitcoinPodcast.net if you have feedback or if you're interested in sponsoring the Bitcoin podcast.
Without further ado, let's get into this Bitcoin talk with Sam Callahan.
I've got to say my voice is still recovering a little bit from the wedding weekend.
Same. I might have even caught a little something. I don't even know.
I came away with no illness, just a lingering hand over.
I have a little scratchy throat for sure.
I'm really grateful that we delayed the honeymoon for a week, because I feel like we're still beat up from the wedding.
It's raining all week there anyway, so it's nice. Thank you, Pacific Bitcoin.
Special shout out. We have not done too many conferences this year,
so we did, obviously, Nashville. But then we got the baby and everything, and so
conferences are a little tricky. But the nice thing about your lovely wedding to your lovely bride was that it felt a little bit like a Bitcoin conference without having to listen to the talks, which was kind of nice, I've got to say.
I love conferences, but you really got to come.
The best part of conferences are the side events. Everyone knows that. The parties.
No, it was honestly, yeah, it was amazing. How's the new, you've only been officially married a few days now, but how does it feel? Do you feel different?
I do feel a little different. I already lost the ring, though, so that's not good.
Wait, are you serious?
I realize that it's a little big, though, so I'm getting exchanged.
But I did feel weird having a ring on for a while for the day that I had it, and now it's in the mail.
But it did feel a little different. I'm not going to lie. I felt like a married man.
I got a wife. Suddenly, I felt like a man. That's my wife.
I got to go.
That's the best part of saying that. That's my wife. Hey.
Like, hopefully you never have to be like, hey, hands off, buddy, that's my wife. But just in case now, you can say that.
I kind of hope one time. At least once I have to say that.
Like saying, like, oh, like that's my girlfriend. Like you sound like you're 14 or something.
Don't disrespect my wife.
Yeah, there we go. Oh, you got it. You got it already. You've been practicing, haven't you?
No, man, it was fun, dude. It was fun to see everybody and
worlds were colliding. It was bit coiners and family and friends I've seen forever.
It was funny, like the high school friends and they're just like,
this Bitcoin thing, man. It was like, is it real? I guess it is.
Yeah, they all know. They all know. I got almost all of them in some capacity.
Some of them just to shut me up. Others are actually grateful and into it for sure.
But all the people I care about own some Bitcoin at this point.
My job is done.
That's the way to start. Yeah. It's like, well, you start, you should start with like the people you care about most.
Like, okay, get your family on board. Like get your mom, you know, stacking some sats.
Like, and, you know, dad will come along too, hopefully. But like with friends, I found it is
difficult sometimes. I've gotten a lot of my friends on board as well. Like they're not
hardcore, you know, toxic, maximalist psychopaths by any means, but like a lot of them have started,
you know, just stacking a little bit. But what I found is because I've got a lot of friends in
finance and it was very hard because I'm coming at this as like an engineer and, you know, they all
know that that's my background. Like we went to school together and stuff, you know, and so it's
like, oh, like Walker is trying to tell us about money. Like, I don't think so. It's not a battle.
Yeah. No, man, I get it's like a yuppie, the yuppie elite piece from Creasest.
Yeah, really is it's very true. It's hard to convince people who have a background in finance.
They're the hardest people. Same thing. I just have, I have some friends that are CFA's and
working finance and we have got like heated discussions over the years,
blown up my friend's group chat with like, you know, like 16 of us, like multiple occasions,
it would just be like me on the Bitcoin side, him on the, you know, Treadfy, it's a scam side.
And, you know, those have been going on for a while now, but they don't really happen as much.
He's gotten a little bit quieter over the years. Maybe it's Larry Fink and all his other Treadfy
bros suddenly getting on board, has him a little bit quiet by now. But yeah, it gets hard to argue.
Like if that's the world that you're making your arguments from, and then the people who are the
titans of your world get behind this thing that you've been arguing against, there's got to be
some cognitive distance there. Like, oh, shit, like maybe they're maybe, maybe Sam's not a total,
you know, like, not job. Like maybe there is something to this. But like, yeah.
Well, it's hard too, because they went through so much schooling, you don't really blame them.
And they've, they're all like very successful and they benefited from the system. They played it well.
And they got the Keynesianism and that treatment in business school. And they're all kind of
thinking the same way and thinking about Bitcoin, especially coming from a different background,
it's like you're coming at it with beginner's eyes and you're just like, this doesn't make
sense. And then you're just reading books and you're just like teaching yourself and you're
going to come at it very different perspective. And, you know, especially if there's credentials,
like it's like, what is this guy? This guy doesn't know anything. You have to be open-minded to
understand Bitcoin and have a sense of humility. And it can be tough for people. Not going to lie,
but eventually people get around just because, I mean, education is getting better and Bitcoin
is proving itself, proving itself every single day it survives and it just seems to be growing.
And so a lot of people have kind of moved past that point by now, I think a lot of smart people,
I'd say they're kind of like dug in a little bit. So I'm like, okay, it's sticking around, but they
say like, but it's, you know, it's never going to be this, right? Oh, Salvador adopted it,
but it's just like a small country. You know, that kind of thing.
Like, you know, just a little country, I've never been there. I don't know. They're just doing some
cute little experiment thing, right? You know, I have been there and it's lovely. I can't wait to
go back. Going back there in January, which I'm super stoked. Are you going to the golf
invitational or something else? It does not coincide. The Max and Stacy golf thing they're
doing. Oh, you're doing the adopting. Not doing adopting either, although I would highly recommend
people go. Salvador do it. A lot. I'm going to the, it's a plan B, Lugano's plan B, they are doing
an El Salvador version. So it's like the inaugural one of those. So because we couldn't go to Lugano,
we were talking with the guys who organized plan B and we were like, Oh, well, you're doing a
conference in El Salvador. That's awesome. And they invited us to go to it. So we're like,
yes, please, we'd love to. Nice. Well, that's cool. I still haven't made the pilgrimage.
I got to get down there. It's cool to see. So we went for the first time, it would have been
like late July or early August, 2022. So just about a year after the Bitcoin law.
And I mean, had an amazing time. And obviously it's a country that is my biggest takeaway was like,
people were so optimistic and hopeful, genuinely, like, you know, a lot of people in America,
you kind of like get a little bit jilted because we live in still like, I believe the greatest
country in the world. But you wouldn't think that way from the way that people often talk about it.
And I myself am guilty of that as well. Like people are, you know, maybe a little bit more
nihilistic about the future. And like, you know, maybe you think one candidate or another is going
to get you out of that. But you still kind of think more broadly like, ah, boy, you know,
things are going downhill in this country. Like, you know, for Christ's sake, we got to make it
great again. But it's like, it is great. But in El Salvador, what I saw was people were like, yeah,
we've had a lot of problems. Life's been really hard and really violent. But now we have hope.
And we have peace. And it's amazing what hope and not worrying about getting killed on your way home
can do to people's just drive. I mean, it was, it was incredible. And not everyone maybe is a fan
of Bukele. Of course, you're never going to have a 100% approval rating of anyone. That's like,
that only happens in communism, because you're forced to have, you know, approval. But
by and large, it seems that people really love what he's doing. And it's clearly making a big
impact. Like even, I mean, the stuff with the IMF is just hilarious though. Yeah.
That was wild. That video is wild. How do they even, how can they make that argument with a
straight face anymore? How? Well, I mean, the IMF has incentivized to keep them from
breaking free of their debt chains, as I would put it. And they found an alternative monetary system
that actually, it can save in, right? Slowly over time, if you zoom out enough, it means
breaking free of the IMF completely. And they don't really want that. They want people to
remain debt slaves. The history of IMF and El Salvador is one of the more fascinating ones,
because in the early 1980s, I looked into this like a while ago, but in the early 80s,
El Salvador was going through this like very brutal civil war. And if you go back, El Salvador was
actually a really big political issue in the United States at the time because of the Cold War.
And so they were worried that one side was like, you know, pro-communism. The other one was,
you know, pro-united state pro-capitalism, all that stuff. And Reagan and the government,
Congress was giving them all this money. And then the IMF gave them this like ridiculously large
loan given the size of the country during a time of war. So typically when the IMF gives loans,
it has to be for like economic development, right? It's like make the world better.
This was like very obvious case that they were just funding the current regime to continue their
military campaign to help swing their, you know, in favor during the civil war, so that they would
win for both the US political interests and corporate interests. And that created so much debt
at the time for El Salvador that they were continuing that it started this huge debt
mountain that they had to deal with for decades. And then there was corruption, embezzlement,
and then the debt continued to grow. And then they have to get more debt from the IMF
and more and more and more. And then it creates this highly indebted country that's completely
dependent on the United States. They have to dollarize. And it's all, you can kind of track it
all the way back to this crazy IMF loan and the Cold War in the early 80s. And that's what Bucheli
inherited, inherits, right? This like complete mess. And that's what they've been dealing with for
that all that time. And so can you really blame them for being like, we're going to try something
different, you know, it's not been working for, you know, we've had really high crime,
high poverty rates, we've been in debt, can't get out of the debt. And so why don't we just try
something different? Let's try this Bitcoin thing. I mean, can you really blame them?
And you have the IMF still coming bit being like, we're going to hold the funds back,
because of this Bitcoin thing, because it's very risky, you know, it's ridiculous.
So there's a little history lesson. I love it. And I, I mean, I don't love the IMF or what they
have done because they're literally like monetary colonialists. It's just like, it's truly sickening.
But it's great to see that, I mean, you can imagine, it was a lot easier probably for the
IMF to make the arguments they're making now about this risky Bitcoin bet when Bitcoin was
languishing in the bear market at 16, 18, 20 K. But now it's like Kelly and El Salvador in the
black, they're, they're looking good. And they're just still, I think they're still buying like one
Bitcoin a day, right? Like I said, I got there just, just, I mean, that's, that's more than I'm
buying a bike, quite a long shot, but they're, they're, they're stacking sats, you know, like
you've got to love that they're just dollar cost averaging in. And you can imagine, you know,
four or five years from now, well, that's going to look really good. And eight, 12, 16 years from now,
that's going to look incredible. That is going to be quite a stack. And maybe they don't need the
IMF at that point. Maybe they don't need the IMF before that. I think the IMF is just, it's,
it's disgusting. Like the IMF and the World Bank and the Bank of International Settlements,
I can all just disappear as far as I'm concerned, like just destructive organizations ultimately.
But yeah, it's, it's, it's pretty insane. But yeah, El Salvador is doing, it's, it's like you
zoom out, they're doing the right things, right? I mean, I just saw Italy today, they're increasing
the capital gain stacks to like 40 something percent. And then Stacy was like, what's the capital,
you know, gains tax in El Salvador? She's like zero. And so like, that's the thing about like
these like competition at the nation state level. It's like, they forget that capital and labor
is, is mobile. It's the sovereign individual. And, you know, if they're going to tax the crap out of,
you know, you're going to choose to tax the crap out of Bitcoin or Bitcoiners,
we're going to go to places where they're more embraced, they embrace you. So El Salvador is
doing it right. And so they deserve to benefit from it because they're embracing sound money and
hard money and Bitcoin, and they're going to benefit from all the innovation jobs and,
and improved balance sheet that comes with it. It is, it is crazy. I saw the thing with Italy. And
I mean, that's a very, very interesting move for, for their PM, not a, would seem to not be a super
conservative move by her. But, you know, hey, like you said, it's, I mean, that's the beauty of Bitcoin
is that, I mean, granted, they're going to try to exit tax everyone, especially Americans, but
everyone everywhere in the globe is going to have governments cracking down, I think, trying to
exit tax them even more than they already do now, right? Because as they implement these more and more,
these higher and higher levels of taxation, people are going to leave. Like you said, it's,
that's the sovereign individual thesis that they're going to vote with their feet, they're going to
move, they're going to move their capital to a place that is friendly to them and that encourages
them to bring their capital there. But countries are going to get scared of that because they're
going to see all this capital flight. Like was it, was it Sweden or Norway that hiked up their
tax rate? I think they put an, or they started to put an unrealized capital gains on a wealth tax,
or a wealth tax. Yeah. And they just had like the majority of their wealthiest people just like
leave. Yeah, they're like tax revenues actually went down. And it's like, well, could have,
could have told you that. But apparently a lot of, a lot of the smartest people thought that was a
really good idea. It's just, it's mind blowing that they think that that is going to work.
But it seems like that's just trying to appease like, I feel like it's trying to appease this
very small group of people that actually don't even care about quote, tax the rich.
They're just like, well, we just want you to stop like making everything cost more money,
because inflation just keeps getting bad. And they're like, don't worry, we'll tax the rich,
and that'll fix everything. It's like, no, it doesn't work like that.
No, I mean, doesn't work at all. But there's like three things that I found interesting about that.
One was that they said it's big, like, I think somebody, I think it was like the finance minister
or something of Italy said it was because the Bitcoin phenomenon is spreading. And I was like,
yeah, it's a phenomenon for sure. Sick. Definitely spreading. You got that right.
The second thing I heard a funny take, which is like, this would actually just force people to
hold, you know, you're not supposed to sell your Bitcoin. So the higher taxes, maybe it'll
keep people holding it longer. So that's a good thing. But honestly, it's really about Italy.
Their debt to GDP is like 150% or something insane like that. Like this is what happens
when you have like these insolvent countries. Italy has been like, bailed out in 2013,
as part of like, you know, when that where there's that whole like Euro debt crisis,
Italy was one of them. And then in the COVID, like they had these like, patch job acronyms by the
ECB, which was basically like taking German bonds when they rolled off and then like,
patching Italian bonds, like going over and buying them, like they were just like putting duct tape,
trying to hold the Euro zone together before these like bond yields blew up on Italy and these
other countries. And so they have to do something to try to fix the debt to GDP. And one of those
things, since they don't control the currency, because they are in this weird monetary union,
one of those is like increased taxes. And so they're just doing what they think they have to do.
And one of those things is like cut spending and increased taxes to improve the debt to GDP.
But obviously, like as we said, doesn't really work when it gets like too high, you can raise taxes
on people, people don't like taxes. And so they'll leave. And so this is just another example of
these countries, these highly indebted countries that are in these predicaments, especially when
there's like release valves that are available to everybody with a cell phone and an internet
connection, Bitcoin. So they're in a tough spot. Like they're kind of just doing what they think
they have to do. But it's kind of funny that they're picking on Bitcoin. It doesn't really,
you know, you have to think that there's some kind of like motive behind it or something.
What's that saying? Like, you know, never attribute to malice, what can be explained by
incompetence. And I try to lead with that because it does seem so often like these
governments, individual politicians, whatever just seem to have it out for Bitcoin. And it's like,
and it seems very malicious. But then I'm like, but maybe they're, maybe I'm giving them too much
credit. Maybe they're just extremely incompetent. And they actually are just that stupid. And they
realize that you mentioned, okay, you know, we've got to cut spending, we've got to increase taxes.
It's funny too, because usually only one side of that seems to happen. It's like, they're like,
well, we'll increase taxes, but we're actually going to keep spending the same. Or maybe
we're going to actually blow up the budget a little bit more. Like, governments never seem to
really, at least in this era, do any meaningful cutting of spending. And like we see that in
the US right now, like, the budget just keeps growing. The deficit just keeps growing.
And then you have the MMT folks who are like, well, it's okay because public sector deficit is just a
private sector surplus. And that math somehow makes sense to them. But it's just wild. It's like,
do governments have any way out of this? Like, do you think there is any chance that like the
United States, as an example, we're both Americans, is there a chance that the US actually
meaningfully cuts spending? Or do they just are they forced to just print money to inflate away
the debt, which just keeps growing like gangbusters? Wall Street has arrived to Bitcoin in full force.
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but you also help support this podcast. So thank you. I actually came across this
really good report from a lot. Bernstein was it Alliance Bernstein? Yeah. Yeah, Alliance Bernstein.
They kind of like tried to answer this question like what's the possible outcomes here?
And we talked about it as Bitcoin is a lot. I've done research on this as well. Like we talk about
like the different options available to get your way out of this that situation. They talk about
like growing your way out through some kind of productivity miracle. That's the best way. And
I think there's like a combination of technologies that could get us there. And I think Bitcoin's
one of those technologies. And I've said this before, I think the ability to save is a way to
increase the productivity through innovation because if people can save, then there'll be more
investment and more investment leads to more innovation. And innovation is actually really
what drives the needle with productivity increases. And so Bitcoin is one of those technologies.
Obviously AI is one of those technologies that people talk about. If there's some kind of
energy miracle or some kind of advancement infusion or fission, like I'm not an expert in
those things. But if all those things combined can help us get our way out of it, then maybe
that's one way. The other way is to raise taxes and austerity measures to cut spending. And why I
like this report is they actually broke down like all the different tax proposals from like the Biden
administration, for instance, and they took them all and they're like the odds of all these getting
passed are basically nil, by the way. But if they all get passed, here's what they would actually do
to the debt GDP ratio. And basically, they look at the CBO projections and they say the if it was
all assuming the tax heights wouldn't affect GDP growth or inflation or bond yields, which is not
really possible. But assuming that it didn't do any of those things, the 2054 debt to GDP ratio would
decrease from a current baseline of 175% to 150%. So you'd still have 150% debt to GDP ratio,
even if they did all those tax hikes that they talk about, which is not going to happen. And that's
if and like they reduce the spending at the same time, which also doesn't look likely. And so really,
like when you talk about raising taxes and all this stuff, it's just doesn't it's not even going to
really put a dent in the deficit. So even if they got them all passed. And so yeah, I don't think
we're going to see anything like that. I heard another theory the other day, which was like
the tax, you know, it's like an excuse basically like tax the rich, oh, we're going to how are you
going to pay for it? Well, we're going to tax the rich, we're going to make them pay for it. When
really, it's just like an excuse to just keep spending like, well, okay, we'll pay for it that
way. But really, it's not really going to pay for it. And it's going to allow us to pass these crazy
spending bills and keep the deficits running at multi trillion dollar deficits because we say that
we're going to raise taxes to pay for it. But they don't really actually pay for a fraction of it
if they pass all the tax proposals in the first place. So really, it's just an excuse by politicians
that they use to keep their spending going. And yeah, anyway, I think the most likely outcome
is currency debasement. It's the easiest way for them to try to get out of it. It's really just like
a it's a balancing act, though, not doing too much too soon to piss off the majority of the
population so much that it leads to civil unrest. And so that's kind of the game that they're playing.
And in the meantime, I think people are waking up to it, and they're going to seek alternatives to
protect themselves. I think that's just human nature. And one of those things I think you and I
agree is is Bitcoin. And it's actually probably the best way, given its performance and some of its
characteristics. So that's kind of how I see those playing out. It's the debt issue is like
the elephant in the room that all the presidential candidates just refuse to touch. And one of my
favorite questions is like, how are you going to pay for it? Because just watching them squirm,
like both candidates kind of like, how are you going to pay for that? How are you going to pay
for that? It's like, that's not like a secondary thought. They're like, Oh, well, that doesn't
really matter. It sounds good. So I'm saying it like, what do you mean you're asking me how to
pay for it? This is ridiculous. It's not what you're supposed to do. Yeah. Yeah. It is just wild
because it feels like that I think that elephant in the room analogy is apt because it feels like
people, individuals are waking up to this stuff and actually are talking about it. While the
politicians, you know, maybe there's a couple out there that do folks like maybe Thomas Massey,
who will be a little bit more vocal about this stuff. I think that's, that's fair to say.
But the majority of the politicians just still kind of act like they're still going to these
recycled talking points of what used to pass for the buzzwords that could make people ignore what
they were doing and, you know, get irritated about this or that or, you know, the bad stuff that
the other side is doing. But you made a point about debasement and unrest. And I think that's
really important. Because if you look through history, people tolerate a lot, they will tolerate
a lot of abuse from their government. Where the buck kind of stops is when food prices start getting
out of control, where the price of everyday necessities gets out of control. That's when
you have unrest and revolution. Like France is a great example of that. Like the French Revolution,
you know, you feel like reading about it as a kid. They just kind of talk about, oh, well, the
nobility was greedy and the people didn't like it and then the people didn't have food. And so
there was a revolution. They had this guillotine thing, lots of heads rolled. But then you look
into it, there's a great book. I should read it out loud in this show. It's a fiat money inflation
in France by Andrew Dixon White, if I'm not mistaken. That's like a thin one, right? It's
a thin one. Yeah, it's not too long, but it goes through all of the things leading up to the road.
It doesn't talk about the revolution. It just talks about all the debasement that happens and all
the scrambling that happened to try and prevent the absolute collapse of the currency as they were
printing more and more and more. And it's funny because I just, I didn't know that side of it.
I didn't know all of those details until I've gone through that book a couple of times over
now because it's just fascinating. But that's when society breaks down is when everything keeps
getting more expensive and they can't put food on the table, they can't take care of their kids and
their family. That's when people are like, I've had enough of this and I'm going to go actually
demand change. They'll put up with just about everything else. They'll put up with wars.
I mean, in the modern era, they'll put up with wars forever, but like don't mess with people's food prices.
But it's a shame though, because they don't understand what the problem is. So what I
need to do is like populism, right? And like policy, they want more fiscal. They want more handouts,
but they don't understand why that's like bad in the long term. So it's just another reason why,
like if you have raising like higher food prices and people get mad and they start to demand things,
could actually just worsen the problem you see like in terms of inflationary pressures,
because they're asking for more, more government help us. You know, that's why like some people
say that's like intentional, like the government's trying to make them the population more dependent
on it to increase its power. Because they say like, okay, well, we caused the problem in the
first place, but here's the solution, right? Come to us. And it's a problem because there's
like a certain like level of like financial illiteracy that's part of the issue. And it's not
just like, you know, certain socioeconomic classes that have that, it's even like the highly educated
people that don't seem to understand basic economics, unfortunately. So I think that's why
it's like important to educate people and how to protect themselves. What's causing this?
Because for people that do have certain asset allocations, like they will be protected and
they'll actually thrive in a way in that environment. It's just going to be kind of a sad
environment if that's not like widely shared. Like there's like that. It's like there's a
guy like Hugo Hines or Steins or Heinz or something in Weimar Germany. He just like crushed it,
because he just like owned all the gold and he bought all these hard assets.
He became one of the wealthiest men in history. Hugo Steins, I think his name was.
So it's like, you just have to educate yourself and prepare and understand that
currency debasement is coming. It's like winter is coming, currency debasement is coming.
Prepare. Yeah, printer is coming, right?
Printor is coming. That's right. So I want to get into the kind of the debasement side and the
global liquidity side of things. Because you just put out a really nice report, you and Lynn Alden
on this. And I thought it was really fascinating. So I want to dig into that. Before we do,
I want to also, I want to take a slight step back. And just for folks who don't know Sam Callahan,
can you just tell us all who are you and how did you get here today to be doing what you're doing,
to be somewhat of a maverick of macro and writing reports with Lynn Alden? How did you get here,
man? Oh man, I ask myself that sometimes. Yeah, Lynn is like, first off, I just think the world of Lynn.
I think she's somebody I look up to as like an investment strategist. And I've learned a lot
from her. And as a person, she's just an amazing person. But I bring her up because like, you know,
part of she was part of my journey. Like I've been following her work since like 20, I don't
even know, 16 2017. And I worked as like a sports physical therapist. I studied biology and physics.
I was in business school dropped out because I didn't like the Keynesianism. I didn't like,
it was a global financial crisis. So I didn't want to go to Wall Street and be a part of that scam.
And I didn't know about Bitcoin at the time. Because I was like, literally 2009 or something,
2010. I wish I did. But I did. And so physics made sense to me. I liked biology. I liked learning
about the human body. Wanted to help people went down that route. But I always was obsessed with
like financial history. And then like that led me down like central banking. And I just I just
like read a lot of books on it. I would just do it in my free time. I'd be like a nerd and do that.
I would just like search things, search the bankers, try to understand the global financial crisis,
like what happened there? I dug into like everything that transpired with like Fannie,
Fannie and Freddie and AIG and everything. I just like went deep into that whole rabbit hole.
And then it came to central banking and the Fed. And so that's just like led me down this path.
And then that's when I found Bitcoin was it was just like a media light bulb. Nobody really told
me about it. I just came across some like silly article. And then I found out about Satoshi Nakamoto.
And I was like, this is wild. Like this is a crazy story. And just became completely hooked,
just reading books after book. And at that time, there wasn't like that much big Bitcoin education
content. So I just like devoured it and everything. And then like, you know, a couple years later,
just never really stopped that fire never stopped burning. And so I was like, I should probably
just like work in Bitcoin. Like I want to like be a part of this. And so then I changed careers,
became an analyst at Swan, kind of built up the educational portal there with all the
different content and started writing a lot of research for our clients started running the podcast.
Did a lot of the more like, I guess you could call like,
premiere content with like a lot of like charts and deep dives in depth analysis for our private
clients with Swan mostly. And then, you know, there's obviously some change ups there. And then
once I left Swan, you know, I had a lot of, you know, Lynn reached out started working on reports,
started advising different companies. And the Bitcoin community is just incredible. I mean,
the, the relationships you build and the people that you, I mean, I'm sure you feel the same way.
It's like the people you surround yourself in this community, it's so special because everyone's
just so brilliant and so driven and so hopeful and optimistic. So, you know, I've just been really
fortunate to surround myself with some really great intelligent people that I've learned from myself.
And now I'm kind of collaborating with so got to pinch myself sometimes because it's just,
it's a real honor just to be a part of like the Bitcoin revolution. And then just to interact
with some of these minds who I think, you know, we'll look back and be like, wow, like, I can't
believe I just like talked to her because now she's doing all these amazing things. Like who knows
what these people are going to be doing 20, 30, 40 years from now. It's kind of exciting to think
about. I mean, you, you also got married through Bitcoin. So like you, I mean, you really like,
you know, but I think, I think like attract, like attracts like to a very high degree within
Bitcoin. And I agree. It's, you feel very privileged to be around people. Like, I mean, it's,
how do I say this? It feels that we are still very early in this. And I agree, we'll look back on this
and it'll be like, Oh, wow, what a special time that was to be able to be around these people,
these, these thought leaders. And I mean, even you look at a guy like sailor who has taken a lot
of grief for his Bitcoin position through, through a long bear market and is now coming out the
other side and looks very smart for doing what he did and continuing to do what he's doing.
That's a rounder statement. And like, you know, so like, I kind of wonder,
are, because again, we are at this place where I think we are still early. Like, yeah, okay,
we've got, there's ETFs and everything now. And I think that has shifted the Overton window a lot,
but still the vast majority of people, even the vast majority of Americans do not own Bitcoin.
And if you pick a random person off the street and, you know, find yourself a decently random sample,
you're going to find that a very small percentage of people understand, you know, own Bitcoin,
and then probably an even smaller percent understand it. I think the research that Troy Cross recently
did, suggested something around like 7% of Americans own Bitcoin, which was honestly
somehow higher than I expected. But still that's extremely low. Like we are inarguably still early.
Where? No way. Yeah.
Is that your feeling as well? I mean, even with like, sailors been extremely public about this
this whole time is like, I'm, I'm selling, you know, like I'm raising debt and I'm buying Bitcoin.
Like I'm using these, and I know that's an oversimplification because he's used a lot of
different instruments for his different buys, but like he's doing this all out in public.
Like there's ETS, now Black Larry Fink is talking about Bitcoin.
It still feels like so many people's heads are in the sand. Do you, do you feel that as well?
Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, when you work in the industry too, you realize how small the industry
is still, especially if you run a podcast. You know, you're just like, wow, like, you know,
you kind of like know all the different companies in the space. Now it's growing for sure.
Like there's no doubt about it, but it's still a small industry. And there's a group of like
convicted builders and, and you know, thinkers, advocates, however you want to call it, who had
to take a lot of crap for a long time because there's so much misinformation, so much doubt.
And I think we'll look back and be like, those are the glory days. Those are kind of the fun
days because, you know, we're just kind of this like ragtag group of rebels and people just like
being like, no, no, no, you're wrong. You're totally wrong about this. And you just like
argue it, argue it and just kind of make the case for Bitcoin and why it's important and why
the world needs it and the world's going to benefit from it. And I think, you know,
facts on our side and the techs on our side and eventually everyone's going to get it.
But I think everyone will kind of forget about these times in a way too. They'll be like,
oh, well, everyone always knew Bitcoin was going to be good. Like, no, that's not how it went down.
Yeah. There's going to be some short like short term memory loss there.
Oh, hands down. I mean, you know that this happened with the internet too,
but nobody talks about that at all. Like they don't talk about those like those days.
But we will. It'll be fun. It'll be fun to talk about. But yes, I do think, you know, people,
we are very early. I think you're just now starting to see institutional adoption. That's
why people are getting excited. I mean, when you have Larry Fink and BlackRock, which
Bitcoin's for everybody, like it's for the financial institutions, the big banks are
all going to get in. So I understand why people are like, oh, it's against the ethos of Bitcoin.
I'm like, you can't stop it. It's completely inevitable that they're all going to get into
Bitcoin eventually. The important part is just that we maintain its decentralization and the
ability of self custody. But these BlackRocks, when you have Larry Fink saying on the earnings
call that Bitcoin is an asset class in itself, that's meaningful because it separates Bitcoin
and crypto. And when they're talking about it as a debasement play as a hedge against global
instability and decreased trust in governments and fiat currencies and institutions, I mean,
that's notable. I mean, that's coming from the one of the largest financial institutions out there
saying like this is a hedge against instability and currency debasement. And they're going around
all over the world. They're like on a world tour telling this to like institutional investors
are basically saying what Bitcoiners have been saying for years. But when it's coming from BlackRock
and you're a sovereign wealth fund, I mean, you have to that message is going to hit a little
bit differently, especially when they are looking at the debt problems and they're wondering like,
how are we going to get out of this? And so we are kind of like very early into this institutional
investment stage. And it's crazy to say that given how successful these spot Bitcoin ETFs have been
and there's, you know, net inflows of almost $20 billion. And how quickly say BlackRocks ETF has
gained over 10 billion in assets under management. I mean, not even close, it's the fastest of any
of its products that they've ever launched. And so the demand's there. But there's so much money
out there. There's so much wealth being stored in all these other assets and Bitcoin still so small.
And we're just now starting to get like the regulatory clarity that we need just now starting
to get like people to understand the difference between Bitcoin and the rest of crypto, just now
starting to get these large institutions who manage trillions and trillions of dollars
to start talking about it in a way that's not like, this is just a speculative bubble. This is a
speculative risk asset. But instead, hey, look at these characteristics of Bitcoin that make it
a scarce hard asset with a lot of potential to potentially be a new alternative monetary good.
I mean, that's kind of crazy, but that's where we are right now. But the wave hasn't even come.
Like we're just kind of like on the beach and the wave is kind of creeping up, but
it's still so much liquidity that's going to come in. It's exciting. It gets me excited.
Do you think that next wave, I mean, is that next wave a kind of a jumble of different, like,
is it, does it come from institutional investors and family offices and pension funds and retail
and sovereign states? Or do you think we see, like, are we in the institutional phase now? Is
that what BlackRock is ushering in? Is that institutional phase? And then does, like,
does the big retail wave, do they end up being late to the party? And then where do, like,
nation states fit in there? Where do more Microsoft copycats like MetaPlanet or similar
scientific or one, what is it, one Medin, one medical net or something? Yeah, there we go. Thank
you. Where does that all fit in? And like, does retail end up being kind of a little bit late
to this because this is like an institutional phase right now? Well, retail doesn't have to be late.
For retail, I actually kind of front ran the institutions here for the first time,
which is really fun. Now, the majority of retail, I would say is probably going to get in late,
unfortunately. Like that's just kind of how it works. I could see like institutions being the
main driver, just because they have so much more money, honestly, but the retail is going to play
along. I mean, like you said, you can't, you're going to have your friends that have Bitcoin that
are going to be talking about it. And the same thing is going to happen. It's just human behavior
where they're like, Oh my gosh, they're going to chase up, you know, they're going to buy at the
top of a cycle. You know, I believe that cycles are still going to exist. And people love leverage.
They can't, they always get greedy. They take on too much leverage. It causes these blow off tops.
And so I think the retail is going to get in, but I do think this is going to be different.
It's in a different investor base when you have family offices, financial advisors, hedge funds,
endowments, sovereign wealth funds, nation states. When you have that kind of investor base,
I mean, it's going to change the game a little bit. I mean, not only, you know, how much money is
going to flood in or is capable of flooding it, but then you got like more sophisticated investors
that probably have more long-term thinking as well as can handle volatility a little bit better.
So you do, you might have like a little bit reduced volatility out of Imagine.
And I do think you'll see a lot of that this cycle just because of the things I mentioned with
like the regulatory clarity, some of these barriers that are breaking down in terms of just like
infrastructure and, you know, accounting rules for corporations, that kind of thing.
And yeah, it's going to be exciting. I didn't even mention corporations like they're there too.
They got a lot of melting cash. So a lot. I think like, I think it was like
seven trillion, which is wild. It's a stag, it's some staggering number. I want to get your thoughts
and say, I was talking to Bill Miller IV about this. Yeah, he's an awesome guy and knows his stuff
very obviously or, you know, wouldn't be where he is. But he was talking about, I was just asking
about like, okay, do you see these more of these sailor copycats coming, but from like the Apples
and the Googles? And his thesis is this is really kind of a founder led revolution or has to be.
The guys that are just the corporate CEOs that are kind of, you know, they're brought in there to
do their CEO job, they're not going to rock the boat too much to take a quote gamble on taking
some of that balance sheet and moving it from cash to Bitcoin. Do you buy that as well? Or do you
think is it only a matter of time before somebody like an Apple or a Google says, okay, you know,
there is no more career risk to this anymore, you know, however many years down the line. I need to
do this or not doing it becomes the career risk. Yeah. I see what Bill is saying there because
you have a lot of these C-suite executives who just go in there and get some big options,
just like keep the ship going for a few years and then cash out and get a golden parachute and
then just go retire. I mean, that happens a lot. So they don't not really incentivize to rock the
boat. And unless you're like a founder led person or you like Apple friends, Apple actually had this
like really, really talented CFO who just, I think he's like in the process of leaving.
It would have to take somebody who's like that who's like very in it for the long term to start
thinking like this. So I think it may be if that's what Bill meant by founder led, I totally see that
if that's like this is my baby and where you have a little bit more control over like the corporate
governance and things like that. Like a sailor for example. Yeah. That's one thing you can look at
with like, so if you're trying to like predict corporations that are more likely to adopt the
Bitcoin strategy, you look at their corporate governance, like voting rights or Eric Semler
talked about this at Bitcoin 2024. But if your board consists of people that actually own a lot
of equity in the company, because some of these board members are just like collect a paycheck,
and they don't really care about maximizing shareholder value. But if a lot of the board
actually owns equity in the company, then they do, then they want to like increase the shareholder
value. And so like looking at the corporate governance structure and the board itself and
the members of the board, you can kind of see like who might be more likely to adopt the Bitcoin
Treasury strategy, how innovative they are. Have they done any kind of innovative Treasury
strategies in the past? What's their history of M&A activity or stock buybacks, like anything like
that. Obviously looking at their balance sheet, like free cash flows, large cash position, low
debt, like those are the kind of things you look for. If you're looking at a corporation,
I still think it happens on the margins more. But I do think we will get, well, personally,
I agree with Bill for the most part, but I do think there's always that, that, that chance that
some somebody will just yolo in the big ones out of nowhere. Like dude, I, this is like completely
anecdotal, but I don't know if you've seen this like shift in Zuckerberg over the last couple
years, just like everything. It's just like, I've seen a Bitcoin transformation before on people.
I know the signs. I can't prove this, but like something's going on there. And it looks a lot
like he's, he's in the Bitcoin or something because there's been a complete change. And so like,
who knows, like maybe, maybe something like that will happen. Zuckerberg has a lot of control over
that too, over that board. So who knows, man, there could always be a white swan event like that.
And that Zuckerberg does seem like a kind of an obvious candidate for that. Cause that is still
like a founder led company. I mean, it's a very, very, very big one, but that is still founder
led. I guess that would still be, you know, so, so I guess that technically that still fits in Bill's
thesis there. I think maybe Bill thought about that. Zuckerberg's transformation is amazing though.
No, so, okay. So I want to get into this, this report a little bit that you and Lynn put together,
because I think this is really cool. Can you, can you talk about this a little bit, just like how,
how this came to be and what exactly you guys went in there expecting to find, or maybe
wondering if you would find, and then if that divergent all from what you actually found,
in this report, which is quite cool. I don't want to spoil it. So I'm going to let you.
No, I mean, like Lynn, look, like we're not the first person people to like look at how
Bitcoin seems to move with like global liquidity conditions. Like people have talked about it for
many years. But what we wanted to do is more like quantify it and be like, well, is it the best? Like
is it like how correlated is it? How sensitive is it to changes in liquidity? And we thought it
would be useful for somebody, say like a hedge fund manager, institutional investor might not
even be into Bitcoin, but they're like, well, we think global liquidity is the most important thing
to look at in terms of what moves asset prices. And so if we want to make a trade, if we want to do
something, we have a view on global liquidity, what's the best asset to express that trade?
And we thought it would be Bitcoin. We think Bitcoin would be the most sensitive. So these
large institutional investors, hedge fund managers, etc, should probably use Bitcoin
because you want to use the most sensitive asset if you're trying to make a play on global liquidity.
And, you know, I started off the piece with a quote from Stan Druckenmiller. And it's like this
idea that liquidity is the most important thing ever since the global financial crisis. It's
what moves markets. It's no longer like fundamental. They've completely distorted asset prices so that
the only game in town is central banks in the money printer, right? It's like a, Luke Grohman
calls it like a, like a switch economy. Like it's just like, it's on, it's off, it's on, it's off.
And it's the most important thing to understand is what is the current liquidity climate, like
environment? What is the liquidity environment we're in to try to see where asset prices are going?
And then you want to know what, how different asset classes respond to changes in liquidity.
So Lynn and I thought, well, Bitcoin's probably the most sensitive because
stocks are driven by other things beyond liquidity. Like stocks are probably pretty
sensitive because risk assets typically do well in pro liquidity environments. When
liquidity is flooding the system, everybody has more money. They're going to be able to take on
more risks. So they like stocks, but stocks are also driven by other things like earnings and dividends,
which breaks that correlation a little bit. There's also like passive flows from retirement
accounts like 401ks, which can like buffer stock valuations even when liquidity gets drained from
the system because you just have these like automatic buys from these 401k accounts, which
can buffer the stock prices up even if liquidity is getting drained. So like again, that would
break the correlation, not make it as strong to liquidity conditions. And then there's gold,
which gold is scarce. So gold would also kind of benefit from pro liquidity environments,
but gold is also really seen as like a safe haven. So when liquidity gets drained from the system,
and there's maybe some like panic, whatever, people will actually flood to gold a little bit
as a safe haven. And so it's not going to be as correlated because it's kind of like a mixed
relationship, so to speak. Now bonds are just like a safe haven. So like we'd expect their
correlation to be really low because you don't really want to be in bonds and like pro liquidity
environments. And then bonds actually do well when liquidity pulls out because people will
see bonds at treasury bonds. It's like a safe haven. So we want to see that. And then we look
at Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin is just like, it's still like considered a risk asset, given it's
where it is in its adoption cycle. It's obviously very scarce. And it's, you know, it doesn't,
it's not influenced by like dividends or earnings. It doesn't have passive flows. And it's not,
not this like mixed relationship like gold. So we thought like, Bitcoin's probably going to be the
most sensitive, but we wanted to quantify it. And so that's what we did. And, you know, that's what
we found, essentially. We found that Bitcoin moves in the same direction of global liquidity
in 83% of the time in 12 month timeframes over the last 10 years or so. And so very, very closely
correlated. And so that's really useful information. Like I said, for somebody who's just like looking
at global liquidity or for somebody who's a Bitcoin, you know, holder who wants to understand
like maybe where we are in a cycle, they really should understand liquidity if they want to understand
where Bitcoin might be going in the next 12 to 18 months or something or, or even beyond that. So
that's it. I'll stop there. But that was it in a general nutshell.
No, I love it. I just wanted to pull up this. Folks in the audio will not be able to see this.
So we'll just have to describe it as you have you started to do there. But this for folks in
the video, I've got the chart up from this article and for anyone that wants to read the whole thing.
It is right here. You can go to linaldon.com, Bitcoin, a global liquidity barometer. And I
thought so this this chart is, I mean, it's, it's what you described there. Bitcoin, obviously,
the most sensitive to it stocks also seemingly, I mean, like very, very close there, right?
Yeah. Now, you know, one thing I just off the top, because, you know, you mentioned these passive
flows, right, that may somewhat distort stock markets correlation or lack thereof to this,
because these passive flows are just that they're passive, they're happening regardless of the
liquidity environment. Does Bitcoin get to a point where because of the ETFs and passive allocations
to these ETFs that you start to see this, this sensitivity break down a little bit? I mean,
you know, it's already kind of close to SPX there. But, but do you see that being kind of a game
changer where you start to have a lot of passive allocation to Bitcoin likely through these ETF
vehicles? Yeah. Yeah. I would expect that to happen. For sure. That makes a lot of sense.
No, it's, you know, it's, it's, it's fast. This is just because that's what I was thinking about
right off the bat. I was like, huh, that's, that's, that's kind of interesting there. Like,
I assume that we'll see this more. Now, can you talk another way to say that is that like,
similar to gold, I see more and more people will start to view Bitcoin more as a safe haven asset,
which I think you and I would probably say it is. Right. And so it'll probably have this more
mixed relationship similar to gold, where it's not considered this like risky as risky asset,
it's kind of like a safe haven asset. And to have it in passive flows means people are putting in
their retirement counts and holding it like a long term. So there's, it's, it's like kind of a good
thing. Right. It's kind of, it would be evidence of people starting to see Bitcoin a little bit
differently as an asset. Absolutely. And I'm kind of curious, just, well, maybe we should
take a step back here for folks that don't entirely understand what global liquidity is and why you've
chosen this, this global M2 number. Can you explain just how that is a measure of liquidity in the
system and what, what that means? Yeah. So this is a whole rabbit hole of like, how do you actually
measure global liquidity? We thought global M2 was pretty good. It's also accessible. Like, we
actually had the data and global M2 is just a measure of, it's like a money aggregate, if you
will. And so there's different, there's like M1, there's M2. M2 could be thought of as just like
everything that makes cash like readily available. All right. So it's like checking's accounts,
physical currency, savings deposits, money market securities, anything that's like easily accessible
that people can get their hands on and spend in the economy. That's global M2. The global M2
aggregates all of that from eight of the major, you know, economies or central banks, if you will.
It aggregates all that data together to give you like the total supply of the money that's readily
available for people to spend or invest or lend in the global economy. All right. So other way to
think of it is it's the, it's a measure of how much credit creation is happening in the economy,
which is like, for a debt field economy, that's how money is created. So it's like a measure of the
credit creation or money printing that's occurring. And then the important part is that it's
denominated in U.S. dollars. And the reason why that's important is because there's a lot of U.S.
dollar denominated debt. And when the dollar is stronger, all these emerging markets with U.S.
dollar denominated debt, it becomes more expensive to service their debt. And so they'll have to take
money and then pay off their existing debt. And so that can kind of constrain liquidity in the system.
And so if it's U.S. dollar denominated global M2, it captures the dollar strength or weakness or
relative dollar strength and weakness, as well as the amount of credit creation happening,
all in one metric. And so those two components may get kind of a good measure. Now, ideally,
we would have something that also includes things like treasury bills, like really short-term treasury
bills, because that's kind of very cash-like. And that's why there's these proprietary measures
of global liquidity out there, like Michael Hall has won at Cross-Border Capital. Because they can
get very complicated, right? I mean, you can really fine-tune these things to make it like the perfect.
But we think global M2 is good enough. It's a pretty good measure of how much money is sloshing
around the system, how much money is getting created at any given time. And so that's why we chose
global M2. It's like, we thought it was pretty good. It's also accessible. We had the data.
And we would change it a little bit if we had more time to add a couple things. But in general,
that's why we picked global M2. Okay. Now, I appreciate the explanation. And I'm just pulling
up this screening in here, just showing this Bitcoin price versus global M2. And I mean,
looking at this very obviously, this tracks pretty hard. But you do see some of these big
divergences in that Bitcoin price. Is your thesis, I guess, I mean, is that just driven a lot by
FTX implosion and subsequent massive bear markets or really overhyped, overexuberant investors
driving it way up. Is that where you see kind of a lot more of that variability?
Yeah. And that's kind of what we, that's kind of what we saw, which was like, we tracked down
what we called like idiosyncratic events that were industry specific, that caused a lot of fear and
change in sentiment, a lot of liquidations. So like that Mt. Gox collapse,
plus token Ponzi scheme blowing up, or there's a crypto credit contagion with like Terra Luna and
three O's capital, a lot of fear, a lot of chaos in the industry itself, which causes like the
correlation with the broader liquidity environment to break down. Because like you could think of it
as internal dynamics within Bitcoin override, whatever's happening on liquidity because of how
much insane stuff's happening just within Bitcoin itself, if that makes sense. It can happen on the
flip side too. Like for instance, the ETF is getting announced, I would say that was like the
opposite where you see the the correlation start to break down a little bit because there's so
much excitement in the industry itself. And there's so much like improved infrastructure and
accessibility and excitement over these ETFs. It doesn't really matter if liquidity is getting
drained out a little bit Bitcoin perform better. And you also see it, I think, you know, that's
helpful to know, but obviously it's not actionable. Like it's hard to you can't really predict those
crazy things. I mean, if you did, then you'd make a ton of money. But it's really hard to know like
when of these crazy events are going to happen. But what we also found is like you can kind of look at
when Bitcoin's like overvalued, different on chain valuation metrics. And the one that we like is
the MV RV Z score, which like looks at, you know, whether Bitcoin's really under or overvalued,
we can kind of go on what it is. But when it reaches these really overvalued moments,
that's another sign that like, it's like prone to a big price correction. And so even if it's a pro
liquidity environment, you can have a situation where Bitcoin's already had this huge run up.
And even if liquidity is good, it has this like huge blow off top and then big correction. And
it's going to break that correlation. And so investors need to be like aware, or I guess more
like traders, if you're playing global liquidity and you're like liquidity is going to go up,
I'm going to bet on Bitcoin, because Bitcoin's the most sensitive according to this data.
You should probably first check if Bitcoin itself, like the industry itself is going through this
huge bull market already, because it might be like, oh, well, Bitcoin's already up like 300%.
It's probably prone to like a correction or something. Even if I think liquidity is going
up, I might try to express that differently because Bitcoin could correct. And then the internal
dynamics again, will override liquidity conditions. Does that make sense?
No, it does. Can you can you talk a little bit about that score that you mentioned,
and just like what that actually means, like how that how that's calculated, how you look at that
and why you chose it? Yeah, well, MBRB Zscore, it's an on chain metric. And historically,
it's been like a very good indicator of calling market tops, cycle tops. Now, it's not a very
big data set. And there's only been like three large corrections. I'm talking like 2017 and 2021.
But when MBRB has gotten over seven or more, that has been really good at timing. It's basically
shows it's overvalued. Now, what is it? MBRB is a ratio. So first off, it's a market value.
So that's just the current market cap, calculating the multiplying the supply of the Bitcoin by the
total number of coins in circulation divided by the realized value. Now, the realized value
looks at the average price that all the Bitcoin on chain last moved. And the good way to think about
this is it's like a cost basis of all the Bitcoin on chain. And so you can kind of see the average
cost basis of all the Bitcoin, let's say it's like $50,000 or something. And that means that like,
that's when most people probably bought Bitcoin last. And so if the Bitcoin price gets up to
like 60,000, you're basically thought processes like, okay, most of the Bitcoin, let's say the
average is average 10,000 in profit. And so you can also think of it as like, when there's a huge gap
between the market value and the realized value, it's like intuitively a good thing because that
means we're in a raging bull market. But at some point, it kind of gets overstretched. And you're
like, okay, they're all sitting on these, all these unrealized profit because the realized
value is way down here, the market value is way down here up here. So all these holders are sitting
on all these unrealized profits, it's a raging bull market. What happens is like, people take
profits. It's just, it's just what happens. And so you get these large corrections. And so
when the MV RV score gets high, it means that there's a large gap that exists between the
market price and the realized price, meaning that holders are sitting on a bunch of unrealized profits.
And this means it could be seen as like overbought or overvalued. And it's an opportunity time for
like long-term holders to typically distribute their Bitcoin to all the newbies buying the top
and take some profits. And then when it gets really low, you see the opposite happen, right?
Long-term holders start to buy back in, accumulate for the long term for the next cycle. You see a
bunch of capitulation from the newbies who sell at the bottom and on and on we go. And so MV RV
C score, I think is a pretty reliable indicator that could change. I'd like to see more time go by
and data. But right now it's a good thing because right now it's still not at those levels. It's
still pretty depressed. So I think we still have room to go with this bull, bull cycle.
And I don't think, I think internal market dynamics in Bitcoin are good. And I think liquidity
is going up. And so this would be a time where given this data, that Bitcoin performs really well.
Like looking at this chart here, I mean, it looks like that Zscore is like very low. Like it's
almost like a local bottom of sorts there. Like it is no, you can see here, obviously these like
blow off tops or whatever you want to call them. Like, wow, it is literally through the roof.
But it, I mean, it looks like this right now. I mean, my DCA is going to stay regardless. But
for somebody who is looking at this and trying to track this closely, like this seems to be a kind
of a calm before the storm moment. Is that fair to say? If this holds true, yes. Yeah. I mean,
that's why I'm bullish for sure. I mean, if MV RV was way up at 11 right now, I'd be like, oh man,
like historically this has been kind of a period where it's more pro to corrections. Now there are
like momentum factors in place where it's like that. One of the things like a high MVRB score
means that we're in a really good time. It's just like, obviously when that time gets overstretched,
like the peak of 2017, right? Or like, you know, you just see these parabolic moves. It's more
likely to break down. Like it's just like, it's like physics. It's like physics. It's like flying
a plane straight up. Eventually you'll hit that. And then you have to come back down a little bit
and have a breather. It's more likely to do that. And when it comes down, that's when the correlation
between liquidity breaks down. And so it's not exactly like the run up of MV RV. It's when it
starts to crash back down. Cause it's never, if you look at it, MV RV, it's like boom, it like
goes up, it drops. And so it's in that decline where you see the correlation with liquidity really
break. And so right now you look at it and you're like, we're not even close to that. And again,
you look at central bank cutting rates. You look at various liquidity measures really across the
board are all saying the same thing is that liquidity is going up. And yeah, that's pretty
good environment for Bitcoin historically. Oh, I mean, it's, it definitely makes me more bullish
than I already was to look at this. I'm curious. So an investor is like reading this report, like
what do you want them to take out of this in terms of like, is it about timing or is it about just
the fact that look, if you're looking for a measuring stick or maybe, you know, barometer is a
better word. That's probably why you and Lynn chose it. But if you're, so if you're looking for a
barometer, if you're looking for a way to play on this global liquidity and your, your base case
is that money printer will go burr than Bitcoin is the obvious choice here. And I also have to imagine,
I mean, the thing that Bitcoin is Bitcoin is most similar to gold in terms of its scarcity,
but Bitcoin isn't just scarce, it's finite. So does that kind of like, is this a just a completely
new paradigm then? And I mean, is that kind of what you're trying to wake investors up to? Like,
look, yeah, nice barometer here, but it's a barometer that is completely finite. Like this
is, you know, this time is different. Yeah, I mean, I think, I think all those things a little bit,
for sure. And we did, like I, I was wondering if I should put in like, Bitcoin's characteristics
into this of like, the finite supply and, you know, how it doesn't respond to increased demand.
And we thought that was just kind of like, included in a way, and like what we were saying,
also the size of Bitcoin, I think plays a factor, how small it is, a picture like a large, it's just
like this tiny thing that just gets thrown around by liquidity, right? It's just like such a small
asset right now. And then there's global nature is also another thing that I think factors into it.
For instance, like if you have, like emerging market stocks, for instance, we talk about this
in the appendix, but the there's local risks, right, that can throw off the correlation to global
liquidity as well. Like if you're in an emerging market economies, and then the economy itself
suffers some kind of like crisis, natural disaster or like economic crisis or like the currency
itself there has a crisis. Then, then that's going to break with the correlation, but like
Bitcoin is global asset. So it doesn't have those like jurisdiction specific risks. So that's
another reason why I think it's good. It's a good barometer of liquidity. But yeah, what I want,
what I want people to take away from it is a few things. Again, like, I guess it's more like,
I don't agree with trying to trade this thing, or like, that's just like not my strategy. I think
DCA is what's right for me in long term investing. If I'm a trader, then yeah, if I'm, I, you have
to like, I think look at liquidity conditions if you're trading Bitcoin, given this data.
And if you're trying to like time a large entry or exit, maybe an entry, like if you're thinking
about making a huge Bitcoin purchase, you know, it's hard to time. So I don't even know if I would
do this, but like if I'm looking at the liquidity and like it's all getting drained out of the system
and Bitcoin's also at a really high MVRV, well, that's like the worst of both worlds, right?
That means liquidity is getting pulled out of the system while Bitcoin's at these all
robot levels. Like that would probably be a bad time to yellow like 100% of your savings at the
Bitcoin. Like you might want to just wait a little bit because that's like the worst of both worlds.
And this is a financial advice or anything, but like that's what I'm saying. Like you should probably
look at these things. And then, yeah, you know, Luke Gromen has explained Bitcoin as a, the last
functioning smoke alarm. And I think this is what this data supports that. I think if you look at
rising global M2 is monetary inflation. It's almost like a measure of currency debasement, right?
Then Bitcoin is basically measuring Bitcoin is an expression of that, of how much currency debasement
is happening in the economy. And it's the best way to play it because it's the most tied to it,
which Jack Mahler's brings this up too. But Jack Mahler doesn't more from like a, he's like,
this is Bitcoin's purpose. This is why Bitcoin exists in the like, it makes sense that it's the
most purest expression. And I think that's why Bitcoin is the most purest expression.
This is why Bitcoin exists in the like, it makes sense that it's the most purest expression because
Bitcoin is the antithesis of fiat currency and money printing. And so you want to play that. And
and again, I kind of agree with that. So you like, that's what I would like take away from this
Bitcoin is the closely, very closely tied to amount of currency debasement happening in the world.
It's also probably the best way to play it. And if you look at the things we talked about earlier
with like the debt problems in the most likely scenario, which is what I believe is currency
debasement with these governments are going to central banks are going to end up doing.
And what this data is showing you is that, yeah, you should probably protect yourself
with purchasing some Bitcoin, at least owning some Bitcoin, allocating some portion of your wealth
as a way to hedge against that. And that's just not me saying it now. We just talked about this.
It's also BlackRock, JP Morgan Chase, just put out a research report that called Bitcoin, the
debasement trade. I would just, I wouldn't say it's a trade because the basements not going to stop.
So it's, it's, that's what I would take away from this. We're just, Lynn and I were just trying to add
add to the already growing conversation of this stuff and just try to quantify it.
So that we can at least point to it, say like, no, like, look, it's actually is the most. It's
like what a lot of people expected, but now we actually have some like, we ran the numbers a
little bit to back it up. I'm very grateful you guys for putting together this report. Because
again, I think it's fascinating and I do not have the same depth of understanding that folks like
you and Lynn do, but that's why I can read these great reports that you've been able to put together
that help understand it a little bit. And, and I think it is just wild to see that even, you know,
like J.P. Morgan has, has come around, maybe not Jamie Diamond, at least not publicly,
but, but, you know, clearly his organization is not a monolith. And it seems to be that it gets
harder and harder to deny that this is this answer hiding in plain sight. Like you said, it's,
okay, it's a measure of this debasement. And the reason I think it can measure this debasement so
accurately is because it's a ruler that is fixed. It's not like a stretchy ruler, which is fiat.
It's like, if you try to measure in fiat, you've, well, the rulers constantly, you know, changing
sizes, Bitcoin's rulers stays the same, right? It's 21 million. And I think that's really,
really helpful to have the ability to, you know, like Jeff Booth says, it's like, Bitcoin's not
getting, you know, more valuable. It's just repricing the entire world around us. Like
everything is falling to the marginal cost of production and the marginal cost of production
for fiat currencies is in fact zero. So like, yeah, I agree that it's not a trade. This is a
this is an inevitability. Yep. Yeah. Yeah, unfortunately, honestly, it's like currency
debasement is just a, it just, it sucks that it hurts like, it's very regressive. It hurts the
people the most who can least afford it. So this is why like Bitcoin's so great because it's
accessible to anybody. It's just a way for them to jump in the life raft and just protect themselves
all around the globe. I mean, that's a key point because even if you look at stocks and
I just like how many people actually have access to US stock markets? Not that much. I mean, not
when you look at the global population, but how many people have a smartphone and internet
connection? I mean, get back to some of the basics of why Bitcoin's important. That's some of the
things that attracted me very early on to it was just the more like, this is actually good for the
world. It's actually going to help people protect themselves to protect their wealth. And that's
important. So protect yourself from currency debasement with Bitcoin. I mean, that's a pretty
good ad right there. I love it. And I want to just kind of going off this global liquidity thing,
just from a more macro perspective, looking at where we are right now. I mean, we've got elections
coming up. I'm honestly surprised that the monetary conditions in the United States were as tight as
they were leading up to the elections. Like oftentimes, I believe you see a little bit more
loosening around that time. I suppose it depends who's in charge. But I'm curious kind of what
your view is on like where we are now versus where we're going. Because obviously inflation has been,
as the central bankers would say, stickier than expected. Or, you know, it's, it is not in fact
transitory. And I think they cover their, their butts for that by saying, well, we meant that the
rate of inflation will be transitor. It's the rates this high. We didn't mean that inflation is
going to go back down, but the average person doesn't realize their central bankers measure
inflation with a year over year rate versus like, oh, no, everything's going to get more
expensive in dollar terms forever or in every other fiat currency. But do you think that we're,
is there the potential of entering kind of a stagflationary period where like they, we,
we can't do anything to meaningfully bring prices down in terms of, okay, so we're talking about
price inflation there, but then, you know, asset price inflation as well, you look at houses,
they are seemingly going to continue to get more expensive unless there's some sort of
major catastrophic, you know, crash. Where, where are we at right now? And, and does that
lead to sort of a stagflationary environment? Or is there a different path out of this?
Does it just lead to a war and, you know, reset of reset of the debt? Like,
where are we kind of at? And where do you see us going?
Well, well, I think, you know, we're just in this very, I would just say like more unstable,
uncertain global economy. And there's a lot of risks out there and geopolitical risks.
And that leads to more likelihood of inflation from the supply side of things,
as well as you have the debt situation. And we're in this period of what, you know, fiscal dominance,
if you will, where you have all these committed liabilities that are unfunded right now that
are mandatory, these entitlements, these social security, Medicare, and you have defense spending,
which ties back to like how unstable the geopolitical risks, like they don't want to
cut the defense spending right now, right? And so you have all these like spending initiatives.
And it's very like politically not palatable to change the entitlements. People just don't
want to do that. And especially the older people who are receiving the social security and the
healthcare. They're the ones who vote the most, too. I mean, I just don't see it really happening.
And Stanley Juckamiller has talked about how to match it doesn't make sense. It just does not make
sense. And so like this is the nothing stops this train where it's like we have these like huge twin
deficits going on. And combine that that's the demand side with the supply side of just like
what you have like reshoring of supply chains, friend shoring, whatever you want to call it,
where if you think about the last 20 or 30 years really since the Cold War fell,
well, you had just like the cheap labor and the access to cheap labor and goods and how these supply
chains just flowed just in time supply chains and how it led to all this deflation that happened
around the world. We just like exported our inflation. It was the opposite is going to occur
when that starts to break down trade relations start to break down. There's more war. There's
more conflict. Goods are going to get more expensive commodities like oil, they're going to get more
expensive. If you try to like manage the supply chains to make them more resilient instead of
efficient, that's inflationary. And so like all these things combined, just paint this picture
of a more inflationary world. And this is why, you know, zooming out again, this is you want to
hold like hard assets because of all these dynamics that are in place right now. And this is what
BlackRock is saying. It's saying like look at the uncertainty, geopolitical risks, as well as
the increased risk of like fiat currencies continued to debase. This is why Bitcoin could
be attractive. And in terms of the next couple like year or so, I guess you could say,
I just think like they're cutting rates. I think they have to keep spending money. I think Bitcoin
wins no matter what in terms of who wins the election. I think it'll probably be a little
different based on what candidate wins in terms of the price reaction. But I think a year from
the election, I think Bitcoin is going to be green no matter who wins personally. And I just think
the fiscal situation is unsustainable. The same alliance birdseeing piece, which I thought I
tweeted this, I thought it was really interesting. The CBO projections of the deficit and the debt
over the next 10 years, they're hysterical because they assume a fixed inflation rate as well as no
recessions, right? So like no policy interventions whatsoever. And by policy interventions, I mean
the Fed and the government coming in with bazookas and blowing up the balance sheet again,
because that's what they mean by policy interventions during the recession,
AKA COVID, AKA global financial crisis. CBO projections don't expect that to happen at all,
so they're hilarious. And what this alliance birdseeing piece said was that it was really
interesting. Like the Warton Penn, you know, the Penn Warton School of Business, very respected,
they do a budget model. And somebody was quoted from the Penn Warton School of Business who runs
the model and said, there's an ongoing secret in the academic world and DC modeling world,
that if you try to run that fiscal model with the current fiscal policy, it completely crashes
if you don't have some kind of policy intervention, because it's completely unsustainable with the
entitlements that we talked about and everything and the amount of deficits,
bending, it just blows up the models without a policy intervention, which means there will be
a situation where they'll have to come in and provide no lender of last resort, money printing,
QE, whatever you want to talk about, whatever you want to call it, they're going to have to do that.
And in that situation, that's ipso facto currency divasement. And again, that's why all roads kind
of lead to Bitcoin. And this is just my thesis. This is just a thesis, but just kind of like
trying to see, you know, put the puzzle pieces together and connect dots. But it's my strongest
conviction play, obviously, it's why I focus on Bitcoin. And I, and I, that's kind of where I see
things headed. And so hopefully that's a good summary. It's an, it's an excellent summary.
I just wanted to touch on one of those items, you know, you mentioned the entitlements and like
social security as an example, like this is a somewhat off topic, but kind of on,
do you think there's any chance that like our generation folks our age right now,
ever see a dime of social security? Because I mean, that is like just such a massive
Ponzi scheme. The boomers, I'm very glad they're all getting it as they, you know,
enjoy their multiple multimillion dollar houses that they bought for, you know,
two nickels back in the seventies. But like, is there any chance that our generation gets to see
any bit of social security? Or is that just going to have completely imploded by the time we get to
retirement age? Well, I think it's run runs out by 2033.
If I'm not mistaken. So I have, they have to do something, right? I mean, or do they just,
they just let it die in 20 or 2033? Yeah, I think there's some nuance to that too.
I think that like grabs headlines, but I think there is a little bit of nuance in terms of what
that means exactly. But I can't remember. But the math doesn't make sense. Like,
I also forgot why they missed it, messed it up so bad. But this was like in the 1930s or something
when they tried to like math out the growth of the United States and the population and like
how this would make sense. And it's complete. It's just wrong. Like the math doesn't make sense
with social security. So like, no, I don't think I'm going to see a penny of it. And I paid into it
my whole life. It sucks. But, you know, good for the generations that are enjoying it now.
You know, I love my parents and I love my older generations. Like you guys are enjoying it.
But it's going to be something where there has to be reform. There has to be.
If it's going to make sense, because you know, what's Drunk and Miller was talking about was like,
you can't just like focus on the older, you have to give the younger generation something
at some point, because you've been leaning on them the whole time and taking and taking and
taking, where eventually it starts to break down. Like, you know, there's again, it goes back to like
civil unrest and things like this, where it's like, Oh my God, I'm getting my paycheck. And
X percent is getting taken out to something that I'm never even going to see. You've been leaning
on the younger generations this whole time. You got to give something back to them at some point.
Before it's like, you know, gets gets ugly. And so, but as Drunk and Miller said, too, it's like,
the time to do this was like five years ago. It's too late. It's like, you know, it's like,
yeah, have you seen the movie Margin Call? I have not actually. Oh, really? Oh, man. No,
it's been on my list because everybody keeps been like, you need to watch Margin Call.
Yeah, I love Margin Call. It's like up there with like big short, but it's like, I'm going to do it
tonight. It's like a play on, I think it's supposed to be like Goldman Sachs during the global financial
crisis. But they're in the boardroom and they figured out like, they ran the models, they're
like, Oh my God, like we're screwed right now. We have to like unload all our mortgage backed
securities. And then the analyst who found it is like, ask the question like, and if this happens,
it's going to blow up and it's like, well, sir, like it kind of already did happen like two weeks
ago. And he's like, wait, what? You should just watch it. It's an amazing scene. You should do that
tonight. I think I'm going to have to know, you know, you mentioned it's like, Oh, okay.
Okay. They have to give something back to the younger generation, like, you know, throw them a
bone basically. I honestly, and the time to do that was like, you know, yesterday, I honestly
just don't think that they will. And I don't expect it. I think a lot of folks and probably
yourself included are kind of in that boat where it's like, we don't expect that there is going to
be first of all, like any of social security left over for us, even though we'll have, we're going
to be paying to support it, you know, as long as it's still around until all the boomers, you know,
go to the, go to their final resting place. But that is also one of the reasons why I think it's
like, we have to help ourselves. And I'm so grateful that Bitcoin exists because it is this,
the, you know, the analogy that's been used countless times. It's this life raft, right?
It's this beautiful bright orange life raft. And it's, and it's a nice one too. It's like a,
it's a big life raft, but it's sitting right there. It's just waiting for us. You just have to,
you have to take it. Yeah. I mean, like, who knows, man, there could be changes to,
as younger people start to take office, there could be more, you know, an orange wave that comes
through in the policymakers. And maybe there will be some kind of like Bitcoin Treasury Reserve. And
then, you know, it could change the game. And, you know, that would be great. Maybe that'll,
maybe that'll, like it's a, it's a, it's a form of social security that doesn't exist yet that
will, Bitcoin will help improve the arithmetic a little bit if, if we're smart.
Bitcoin saves social security. Well, it's, it's, it's like that idea that I think
super charges it. That's right. Well, like the idea that energy rich countries can basically do a
UBI, but it's, you know, universal Bitcoin income, like using their national energy resources to,
I'm, I may misattribute this, but I want to say it was maybe Samsung Mo brought this idea up.
Sounds like a Samsung. Sounds like a Samsung. Yeah, it does. But I mean, that's something that
would actually make sense. And also something that benefits all age groups of society, as opposed to
just the oldest ones. And like, yeah, we should take care of our elderly folks as well. I'm not
some, you know, callous person, but at the same time, it's like, we're all just paying into this
system that is very obviously a Ponzi scheme. It, it relies, it literally relies on new people
coming in and continuing to buy into it for it to continue to function. And it's like,
man, this just, it's, it's like, it's just classic government also. It's like, no, well, I mean,
it's a pretty big Ponzi scheme. I, I don't know what country does this. I honestly,
it just like completely popped in my head right now, but maybe it's like a Scandinavian country
because they always like, but when you're born, you get like a certain amount of money put into like
assets, like a stock market or something from the government, like a small amount. But as a way to
like build wealth and afford education down the road, like it puts it in this like trust, I don't,
I, I, this is like a very faint memory, but I think if somebody fashions me, I think it exists
somewhere. But like, it would just be interesting if a country did that with Bitcoin, right? Like,
every time there's a kid, baby born, there's some kind of like tiny sats, some sats that were thrown
their way. And then as they're, when they're 16 or 18, they get access to it, something.
It's kind of an incredible idea. I mean, because that's the thing. It's like, the, the boomer generation
is the fiat generation, right? That is like that timeline lines up. And if you are, I mean, like
more power to you were, you were born in a time where assets just went up into the right constantly
because we just kept debasing and debasing. And again, you bought your house for two nickels in,
you know, the 1970s and it's worth many, many millions now. And you didn't even, I mean,
especially you look at like a housing market, like the Bay Area where it's like, those houses are
garbage too. Like you look in like San Jose area, it's like, that's a $3 million, you know, little
three bedroom house that you're like, well, how on earth does that cost that much? And obviously,
there are other like NIMBY issues out there, but it's what gives me hope in Bitcoin because again,
I don't expect anyone to help our younger generations. And if you're listening to this and you are of
that generation and you've just stumbled upon the Bitcoin podcast really randomly and you don't know
anything about Bitcoin and you can take away something from this, help yourself by saving in
Bitcoin because it genuinely is what gives me hope for the future and makes me confident that my
wife and I and our son and our future children are going to be able to have a future because it's
the one thing the government cannot debase and like they will debase every fiat currency in the
world and they will all trend to zero versus Bitcoin. There's one side of that you want to be on
and one side you don't want to be on, you know, and it's pretty obvious. Yeah, and I'll just add like,
you know, we talk about like, I just, generations are, there's a lot of people in a generation and
I don't like to generalize entire generations because there's a couple, we know a lot of
silver, I think, you know, the, the, the fourth turning guys, you know, they do all that,
they're demographers and they talk about, there's like heroes in different, like there's, I think
they're called like silver heroes or something. There's like boomers or something that helped the
younger generations who actually think like that. And I know some of those guys and I know you do too.
And so hopefully there's more of those people that are thinking about younger generations. And
then it's up to us, right? It's up to us to build the future. It doesn't just happen.
This is why we're the quote, hero generation, I guess you could say. And we get, we get to live
through these very tumultuous, like world changing times, which I think we should be like, okay,
well, let's, let's, you know, be grateful. I guess to see this history turning. It's usually full
of chaos, but usually the world comes out a different place. And it's up to us, the younger
generations to build the world we want. And I think Bitcoin's a part of that. So it's going to be
exciting to see, you know, we're going to, we're, I think we're going to see some really inspiring
leaders come about that are younger right now that are still maybe in school right now. Like,
who knows? It's going to be fascinating world. And I'm just more hopeful about it with Bitcoin,
because I feel like Bitcoin is a tool to help build that world we want to see.
I couldn't agree more. And I, and I don't want what I said to be taken as me ragging on boomers.
It's not that they were born boomers. I do it too. Don't even, you know, I'm trying to be all
high at my DIY. No, no, you know, it's more so pointing out just the, uh, like when you are born
matters and you will get advantages from that. And that's not your fault or anyone else's fault
being born a different time. It just is what it is. But I mean, I think we're honestly, I think
our generation is luckier than boomers because we get more time on this earth with Bitcoin in this
world. We get to live during the Bitcoin era, man. This is the best time. Like, I don't,
I don't want to live in the fiat era. Like I want, I'm excited for this Bitcoin era that exists now.
You can see this thing play out and like, uh, take over the world.
It's, it's my goal to try and live to 2140 just so I can see that last block at mine.
I don't think I'm going to make it there. But that'd be cool. We'll be like,
uh, are you going to be like, uh, you know, your head's going to be a cryo just floating around.
I was there when it was under a hundred K. Yeah, right.
Oh man. Do you know, I found this out from that HBO, uh, who is Satoshi Bitcoin doc. I didn't know
how thin he had his head cryogenically frozen. Oh, you didn't. Yeah. Yeah. That's, that's a
slight digression, but, uh, yeah, we'll see. Maybe, maybe we'll hear a hell of a lot today.
You know, I mean, it's not really, it's, for me, it's not hard to see a scenario where
one day you'll be able to like, plug it into AI and then talk to health, any in an AI health, any.
I think we can probably almost already do that right now. You know, if you, you get
enough of how he writes and, you know, how he speaks, you could probably put that together.
I'm honestly shocked nobody has yet. That's a nice little side project. But Sam, I want to be,
I want to be conscious of your time here. You're a newly married man. So I appreciate you,
you taking the time to come on the show. No problem, my friend.
Where do you want to, uh, where do you want to send people?
Yeah. I mean, I'm on X. That's where, that's where Bitcoin lives. So I'm there and you can
find me at at Sam Kala, S-A-M-C-A-L-L-A-H. Post analysis there. I'll post research reports.
I'm actually working on another report with Lynn right now, but that's probably not going to be out
for like probably, I don't know, four to six weeks or so, um, on fiscal dominance.
Oh, nothing stops this train. Yeah. We're kind of just expanding that a little bit, going into the
history a little bit, um, digging in, running the numbers. And so I'll be posting that on X.
So just keep an eye out, follow me and, um, yeah, just reach out. My DMs are open,
but always a pleasure, my friend. Let's do it again sometime.
Let's do it. And I'm going to get you using Noster again more. So I'm going to specifically link
your end. I tell myself every, I just got to get over there. I got to move the app
to like my first page on my phone. It's part of the problem. That's, that's the key.
I've got it on my, I've got it on my bottom bar. Like, you know, I've got it right down there,
just ready to go. And then I can't be a cross poster. You know, I need to like have individual
thoughts on each. That's, that's another key. I can't be one of those guys, you know, put out some,
put out some, uh, some sneak peeks of analysis on Noster and get zapped some Bitcoin for it,
you know, what's true. There's a move right there. Well, some of my favorite Bitcoiners are
all over there. It's like my worlds. It's like there's two parties going on. I know they both
seem fun. They're both different, you know, both a little different. Um, so I get a little sad
because it's a little different on, you know, the X side. So I got to get over there. You're
right. Completely right. The water's warm. Come on in, man. Sam, thanks, thanks so much for coming,
man. It was, uh, it was a pleasure. All right, man. Have a good one.
And that's a wrap on this Bitcoin talk episode of the Bitcoin podcast.
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