This is not like just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore.
This is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer.
I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away.
Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.
If you look at the four-year cycle, which Bitcoin has been moving in,
you know, we're moving into the bearish period.
If you're wanting to get into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued,
but we could still get slightly lower.
So there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up many multiples once we consolidate long enough.
Some people say the four-year cycle is dead.
I don't think that's the proper way to phrase it.
I think one should say the having impact is dead, but not the four-year cycle.
Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels.
That's why in the next couple of months, we will form a bottom.
I don't know exactly how low we will go, but I think our realistic outlook, that maybe is good to assume that that will happen.
I think we're already at fairly cheap sets here.
We're not going to reach the minus 70, minus 80% drop from an ultime high.
Why not?
Because we actually, we didn't have that parabolic move up.
But there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is doing exactly what it is supposed to do.
Bitcoin is the Trojan horse infiltrating the fiat system.
the rational route the rational route rational route just root maybe welcome i'm stoked to have
you on man thank you so much for inviting me on happy to be here i have a lot i want to cover with
you uh i want to start out maybe well first perhaps it's worthwhile just uh just walking
through this chart. But maybe before we do that, because I know you've, and thank you for doing
this, you've prepared a number of charts specifically for this, which I very much appreciate.
What is your just current vibe check on where we're at right now? There's, we were talking
about this just off camera for a second. There's a lot of different, different opinions about
what Bitcoin is going to do next. Always. Right now, there seems the vibe seemed to have been
weird. We had a, I think for most people, pretty disappointing last year. And then these first
couple of months of 2026, up until, you know, a little war in Iran seemed to spike or spark off a
little bit of a rally. It seems like things have just been weird. People have been super bearish.
Where are you at with this? What is your kind of personal vibe check on the situation?
Yeah, I would, I would say that Bitcoin is in a bear market. So we had like a bullish trend and
And actually, that's why I put this chart first to kind of explain, okay, where we're currently at or how do I see the situation?
I mean, we had, so the line that you see in this chart is the bullish trend.
So when you have a bull market, it's an exponential trend, right?
Like the chart, the price chart is shown here in log scale.
And so that's why that bull trend looks like a straight, like a linear line.
But it's actually a curved line if you would look at it in linear time.
And so when you have a bull market, so we actually came out of a three-year bull market.
You have this three-year exponential trend.
And an exponential trend is always unsustainable, right?
At some point, an exponential trend will end.
And so the bullish trend that you see here is actually based on a regression from that price data of the bull market.
And then I drew like a channel and I drew the bottom of the channel.
That is that bullish trend that you see in the chart.
And so soon after making the all-time high, we fell below that channel, the bottom of that channel, below that bullish trend line that you see in the chart.
And so that was for me a warning signal.
Like, okay, and this doesn't necessarily mean that it's the end of the bull market.
In 2021, we had like a mid-cycle dip.
We also were in an unsustainable trend in the 2021 bull market, and we still managed to make a new autumn high after, you know, in November that year.
And so for me, it was also a bit like, okay, is this going to be like a mid-cycle dip, or are we going to move in a bear market?
But at least what was clear is like, okay, we're not going to rise at the same trend that we were, you know, before we fell down that bullish trend.
And so that was going to go on.
And so, but as soon as, you know, then we fell below the $2 trillion market cap, or instead of like a multi-trillion dollar Bitcoin, we became like, again, in the single digits, you know, a trillion dollar market cap.
And that actually coincides with the $100K psychological level, which has been a very psychological level for Bitcoiners to take profit as well.
And so, of course, like, those are all confirmations like, okay, this is going to take a bit longer, you know, this correction.
And then, you know, we fell below the short-term molar cost basis, obviously.
And once we had that rebounds to the short-term molar cost base, that was actually around 97K.
And we nearly touched 100K there.
I actually told my followers, okay, this may be a good time to take profit because this correction might take longer.
You know, it could take a couple months because time-wise, if you look at the four-year cycle which Bitcoin has been moving in, you know, we're moving into the bearish period.
And so even though we didn't have that parabolic move up, and we can get a bit to that later, what the reasons are why we didn't, but we didn't have that parabolic move, which we usually tend to see at the end of a cycle.
But then time-wise, we were actually ready to move into the bear phase.
And so then, of course, we had this February 5 drop, and that was clearly okay.
This bear market is going to take a little longer, and this is not just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore.
This is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer.
And so we currently had that 50% drop of the all-time high.
And so now there are some differences between this cycle and the previous cycle.
I think we're not going to reach the minus 70, minus 80% drop from an all-time high.
Why not?
Because we actually didn't have that parabolic move up, and so we had a much more distributed top.
And so also it's much less likely to get these really high percentage term drawdowns.
I think 50% is already like a severe drawdown.
So we're already at pretty undervalued levels.
But I still think there's also room to, especially time-wise, but also price-wise, to maybe potentially have another leg down before we really start moving up.
Let me ask you too, what does another leg down look like?
Because I was listening to your conversation.
You were on Danny Knoll's show, formerly Peter McCormack's show, of what Bitcoin did.
I think it was November of 25.
And Bitcoin was hovering right around 100K at that point.
And you called out, you were like, look, we may go lower.
We may go 50% lower.
I don't think we go much lower than that.
Now, we've basically done almost exactly what you just said there could happen.
We got down, I think, what the low was like.
I don't know if we fully broke 60, but we were right around the lowest 60s there.
I mean, so do you think, is this like the 58K gang prophecy that is going to be coming back?
Is that what we're going to hit?
But I've seen also people, I mean, every analyst loves drawing lines on charts.
And a lot of them are like, see, this is why Bitcoin's going to 40K, 30K, 20K, 10K, zero, negative, whatever.
You know, you see so much noise out there.
So what's kind of like the signal for you here?
So first in the November 10, we had like this huge, actually the biggest liquidations happening in the industry.
It was mainly crypto, but also Bitcoin was affected.
That was that first drop, actually, which brought us below that bullish trend and below the 100K level.
So that was, in my opinion, the first leg down.
And then we had a rejection of the short-term molar cost basis.
And the February 5th drop was really like that second leg down.
Now, we now have some consolidation.
We're now in that – we're actually in the low 70 range.
I think we can stay between 70, 80 for some time.
but potentially indeed we might go to those upper 50s the 58 gang i think is uh is a a level that's
actually highly likely to reach uh within the next couple months but there are also some reasons why
we don't have to get there and it's mainly it's mainly because um you know and i think um i speak
for you as well here most of us bitcoin bitcoiners that have been a long time in this market and
understand the value proposition of Bitcoin already think Bitcoin is severely undervalued
at these levels. And I think pretty much the majority of us would agree on that. And so that
also means that we are less tempted to sell at these levels. And so we've had a lot of sell
pressure around that 100K level. But I think moving forward, we're going to see less sell pressure
you know, at these, the lower we go. And so, and the same, at the same time, you know,
passive flows or actually like institutional gradual adoption will continue. Now, not at the
same level as during the bull market, but I do think that's why in the next couple of months,
we will form a bottom. And so I don't know exactly how low we'll go, but I think the upper
50s are a realistic outlook that maybe is good to assume that that will happen. And then if we
don't get there, you know, that is fine. So also, I would recommend, like, I think we're already at
fairly cheap sats here. And so, you know, it's very hard to time the bottom. I mean, we can do
this with the four-year cycle, but there are some divergences from the four-year cycle, and we can
get into some of those details in a bit. But it's very hard to time the exact bottom and the exact
price, right? And so it's much more practical to just average in during these next couple of months.
And if we get a lot of leg down, that is actually a tremendous opportunity for the time to come.
Because what is happening on the other side is we really have a measurable institutional adoption
that continues. I mean, news comes out every week. We saw now again, Kraken became a bank. And so even
the industry is kind of converging with the fiat system, right? Kraken is becoming a bank.
On the other side, I think Morgan Stanley is starting an ETF. That was news of just like the
last two days or so. And so we see that institutions are entering the space. I actually measure that by
observing 13F filings. And we can get, I have actually a chart on that. Maybe I'll open that
So this is the chart on the total ETF holdings.
And what I try to do here is see the share of institutional holdings from the total ETF holdings.
And this is a very conservative estimate because this is actually only institutions that are required to report.
And those institutions need to have portfolios of 100 million plus.
And so there's probably a lot more smaller institutions that are not required to report that are not reflected in this data.
So this is a very conservative estimate of institutional holdings.
But we see a clear uptrend over the past years.
And obviously, the price has been a little disappointing.
And we're kind of flat.
We're down one percentage point of total holdings.
But it's actually even less than a percentage point.
so so but but what we can see is actually institutions are here they're getting their
feet wet in this cycle I mean we literally had this cycle was actually the gateway like ETFs which
opened for institutions to come into the space and we have seen that happening and we will continue
to see that happening and especially once we move through this bottom formation and once we get like
into new bull market, you know, also some of those institutions are starting to feel more of those
gains, and they're going to be happier to, you know, allocate more, a bigger percentage of their
portfolio to Bitcoin. One of the interesting things for me, and River put out a great chart on this,
showing basically the change from in holding patterns between different entities, essentially
showing, look, individuals in 2025 decreased their holdings. And who did that get sopped up by? Well,
it got sopped up by the institutions. And I'm curious, just as you look at the current price
action, obviously from my, like, I haven't, obviously don't look into this as deeply as you
do. That's why I have you here to educate me. But I look at a lot of the OG selling that we know has
happened. You had that single galaxy whale who got rid of what, 80,000 Bitcoin. Like that's one guy,
one guy getting rid of 80,000. You know, there's a bunch of other whales that have been selling.
I had Lynn Alden on recently. She pointed out like, look, Walker whales sell every cycle,
right? But for, I think for a lot of whales, this cycle, it's like a hundred K was very much like a
magic number they've been holding since it was a few dollars or maybe a few cents or a few hundred
or even a couple thousand. They've got sitting on massive, massive gains. Okay. They're rotating
out a little bit, but is that what you think has been the primary driver behind the current kind of
just, let's say, chop solidation lower, the crab market lower, or is this something more cyclical?
Like this is just what's bound to happen every cycle. If cycles exist, we can kind of get into
that later a little bit too. But what's your read on that in terms of kind of the primary driver for
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Yeah, so I think the primary reason why we had this such a distributed cycle in general,
so I do believe cycles are happening, by the way, and I do think we're in a bearish phase currently.
And I think the 100K was a very psychological level, and we see actually that we can actually confirm that by unchain data.
There was an equal amount of selling of coins, even though we only reached much lower prices, like barely above 100K.
But we still had equal distribution to previous cycle in terms of actual BTC.
And so why is that the case?
I mean, and a factor actually to diminishing returns in general each cycle have been the fact that we have compounded sell pressure from each class of Bitcoin, right?
So I don't know when you got exactly in, but we have the class of 13, the class of 17, the class of 21.
And so all these classes…
Class of 20 for me.
Yeah, so we have all these classes, they came in at different price levels.
But even for the class of 20 or class 21, you're looking at a 10x gain for the 100k price level.
But for a class earlier, that was like a 100x gain.
And for a class before that, it was a 1,000x gain.
And we're also getting to liquidity.
Bitcoin is liquid enough to actually sell some of those early coins.
Like before previously, in previous cycles, that wasn't really possible.
And so I think this 100K psychological level, much like the 10K psychological level, it also took a long time.
We have hovered a long time around the 10K level, had a bearish phase below it, and then got back above it.
Again, hovered around it for a long time before we were actually able to move out of that.
And I think that is also happening with the 100K psychological level.
And so, yeah, I've been referring a lot of times to this IPO moment.
I think that is exactly what has happened this cycle.
So in a way, there are actually some really shifts this cycle in which the cycle differs to previous cycle.
First of all, this was actually the cycle with the least amount of retail inflow so far.
um uh and and and so but we've moved to institutional inflow which is exactly what
we want to see if we want bitcoin to succeed by the way and so i also think it's inevitable i mean
some people view like okay bitcoin is being absorbed by the fiat system i think that's not
happening at all you know bitcoin is the trojan horse like infiltrating the fiat system and like
how were we supposed to get to you know uh world like full adoption of bitcoin without institutions
getting involved.
I mean, that is impossible.
I think that happened basically
is that most of retail
that wanted to get into Bitcoin
had 10 years to do so.
And we are here, you know,
and we're believing it, you know.
And so, and to the level now
that we convinced institutions
that it's here to stay
and they're investing in it.
But so I also think
in moving into the next cycles,
I mean, there's still going to be
some new people that you know we're missing here and there but in general I
think you know probably some of the the Gen Z years that that are coming of age
like to actually think about start thinking maybe potentially about retirement or a pension or something like they might get involved they suddenly get it but that is like a relatively small amount i think you know like so
i think what we're going to see is indeed like we're going to see a continuation of stronger
institutional adoption uh and at the same time we're we're yeah we're currently at this ipo moment
where long-term holders are still distributing some of their coins and making their lives better but
But at some point, we're going to reach that level where most of us sold the majority of coins we would want to sell.
I think there's a limit for every holder.
We want to improve our lives and possibly distribute some of our coins to have this improvement to our lives.
But at some point, it stops.
Then the lives are improved.
We're going to sit on the rest.
And so I think we're moving through that phase.
And I think that what we're going to see over the next months is that we're going to form this bottom.
There's going to be less selling from long-term holders because especially it's not going to be as interesting to sell at these lower prices.
Like long-term holders are going to sell the least possible, but possibly some are obliged to sell for whatever reason.
So there will be still some selling, but I don't think it will be as much as the levels that we've seen around that $100K price level.
But once we get again back above that 100K price level, there might be some more distribution and that will still take some time.
But we will get out of that and then we're up for like really a proper next bull market.
I want to get into a couple points there.
But first, I do want to ask, you mentioned, and I think this is something that a lot of folks have sensed, is that the retail demand, you know, retail demand was really not here this last cycle.
There just wasn't the same level of hype just generally.
That being said, you also had the ETFs during this cycle.
So I mean, just I'm curious your thoughts was a lot of the, quote, retail demand that
you'd usually see in just spot Bitcoin actually just funneled through the ETFs.
Or was it still, even with the ETFs, still less retail demand than you would expect?
Yeah, so even with the ETFs, I think it was less retail than we would expect.
I still think there was a significant amount of retail
but there was definitely more institutional interest
in Bitcoin this cycle
and one important thing to understand
is that retail, you know,
in general, in previous cycles indeed
they would buy through exchanges
and that would set the spot price
it would more heavily impact the spot price
but the retail that came into the space
through ETFs.
And I mean, this week there was actually some talk
about manipulation, you know, price suppression of Bitcoin.
And because we cannot believe we're at these minus 50%
from all time high levels, you know,
we all think like as maximalists, like, okay,
Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels.
Bitcoin should not be, like it should be way above 100.
In our minds, Bitcoin is worth 200K or above, you know.
And so, but that is not the general mindset of people
like coming that invest in stocks, you know, who now maybe for the first time allocated some of
their money through these ETFs to Bitcoin as well. And so I think those are definitely people with
less conviction than we are. But because they came in through this gateway, there is in a way
a suppression of price because ETFs, they sometimes do an in-kind creation, which is gold. And so they
they buy Bitcoin OTC.
And so that less impacts the spot price of Bitcoin.
And so we have ETFs,
like some of these authorized partners for ETFs,
they try to get their Bitcoin,
obviously the cheapest or like most,
the best way possible for them
to have the most profit as well.
And so they look at OTC markets
and try to get these coins and influence the price the least possible.
And so in that sense, like the rumors about price suppression are not entirely incorrect.
I think one, you know, and it's not that OTC doesn't have an effect on Bitcoin
because there's only so much OTC and some OTC desk will hatch,
well, at exchanges with spot Bitcoin.
And so there's some of these dynamics going on.
But what I do think that if you buy OTC, you're actually taking sell pressure or buy pressure away from the spot market, and it's more indirect.
And so in a way, it's a bit of suppressing price.
And that's why also I think we've had such more distributed market in general.
And because ETFs were one of the primary inflows of demand for Bitcoin this cycle.
And so less retail purchases through spot exchanges.
And even some of the retail that now came in came through ETFs.
And institutional adoption came in through ETFs or treasury companies, which many times works with these OTC desks.
And so there was less impact on the actual price of Bitcoin.
So I think if all of that would have gotten into the spot market, you would probably have like a much more volatile Bitcoin price.
Now, in the long term, I think, you know, Bitcoin still will go where it goes.
You know, also OTC.
I mean, if someone buys OTC and someone sells OTC, you know, that doesn't directly affect the Bitcoin price.
But still, you know, if that OTC purchase wouldn't be there or that transfer, I should say, there's always a buyer and a seller.
Or it would have gone through the spot market.
It would have had a more direct impact.
But there still would have been an equal amount of sell pressure and buy pressure.
So I think it's like a temporary suppression of price a bit.
And so in a way, some of those Jane Street algorithms that...
I mean, there's some suppression going on with ETFs.
But those are the general mechanics behind ETFs.
You know, they have these structures.
And OTC markets were there long before ETFs even were involved in the space.
You know, there's many OGs that sell, buy and sell Bitcoin through OTC.
And so, you know, you could blame the same on those OGs for not affecting the spot price as much, right?
I think that that is what a free market does.
Fair enough.
And let me ask you two just on the cycle side of things.
you said you still think that the four-year cycles are there.
How much of this, though, in terms of the four-year cycles,
ends up just lining up with the business cycle,
with the overall liquidity cycle from a monetary sense?
How much, you know, I mean, it also lines up with, like, elections
to a certain extent, too.
How much of it do you think in terms of the four-year cycles
is actually, like, having driven from a Bitcoin perspective
versus, yeah, it's like,
does the halving have a diminishing effect?
Obviously, as it halves, the block reward halves,
and how much of it is or always was influenced
by more of the external business cycle side of things.
I'd love your take on that.
Yeah, so I actually have a chart on midterm elections,
the effect on that,
and where we actually look at the business cycle
and how that moves in tandem
with the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.
And so there is the, you know, some people say the four-year cycle is that, you know, like, but what I actually think, like, I don't think that's the proper way to phrase it. I think one should say the having impact is that, but not the four-year cycle. I mean, we're still well within the bounds of the four-year cycle currently.
Now, that doesn't mean that we couldn't move out of it in the next couple of years.
You know, I think there's actually fair reason to assume we possibly could.
But currently, we're not.
And so, you know, for some mystical reason, you know, Satoshi chose the four-year period for, you know, the halving, which reduces the subsidy, basically, for Bitcoin.
to have Bitcoin properly flourish.
I mean, that's what the subsidy actually is,
having a subsidy for miners to start mining.
And so Bitcoin eventually will have to do without subsidy.
It should be able to work on its own
without any subsidy from the network.
And so instead of a gradual decrease in that subsidy,
Satoshi chose this four-year period
and halved it with this shock.
Now, in the beginning, that shock was, of course, very severe.
And we had a lot of early investors in there.
But coincidentally, like the business cycle was always also in a four-year period.
And so I think liquidity has always affected Bitcoin much.
And of course, over time, we've gone from the early OG or Cyperpunk movement.
We've moved to now people with a stock portfolio investing in Bitcoin, which is a whole different cohort that is now currently investing.
But all are driven by actually liquidity.
You know, like also the early cypherpunks probably were more incentivized to spend some of their money and put it in Bitcoin in the early phases when the market was doing well, you know, when they had a bit of extra money to do these things.
And so the business cycle always had a huge effect, in my opinion, on Bitcoin.
And that has moved in tandem with the halving impact.
And previously, the halving impact had a much bigger impact on Bitcoin than it currently has.
and so we also saw a lot of higher gains
in those early cycles
and currently not as much
the halving didn't have as much impact
the ETF approval actually had more impact
we made an ultimate high before the halving
because of ETFs not because of the halving
and so that shows
how we've kind of moved from
before we had
much more halving impact
to now very little halving impact
to now
a gateway like ETFs
having more impact
but we still have moved within that four-year business cycle but the business cycle wasn't
always four years so of course like why why do business cycles move in four years and that has
to again probably do with presidential elections uh you know that move on a four-year basis and so
they stimulate the economy and then uh you know in the midterms usually uh it's like a bit of a
bearish phase for uh stocks in general risk on assets and and that's what we currently uh well
Currently, there's a bit of divergence going on.
And I think that has to do with kind of an after effect of COVID.
So we came out of COVID with a lot of money printing.
And then, you know, we had a bit of a difficult market.
And so people were struggling and businesses were struggling to get like to deal with all this inflation.
And so we kind of like, you know, so in this chart, I actually showed the midterm cycle.
So you see all the midterms.
and we see how how bitcoin generally you know may like a blow around that midterm uh and and
currently this is uh in in orange we actually look at the yearly rsi for bitcoin in light blue we look
at the yearly rsi for the s&p 500 which a risk on assets with bitcoin has high correlation with
and then in dark blue we look at the ism um at the at the pmi the business cycle um and the
business cycle index now moved above 50, which is actually means that we're getting out of like a
bearish phase, but where Bitcoin actually just printed the low in the RSI comparable to like
previous bear markets. And so, and we're getting close to that midterm that's this year, but we
also see that the S&P is kind of rolling over. And so I, so it's very hard to, to, to know how
the market's going to move forward. Is the S&P going to crash before the midterm still, you know,
Trump obviously doesn't want to. He's doing everything he can to influence, you know, to keep this from happening.
I think he possibly Iran is one of those plays on that as well.
Like if he can fix that war and have Iran cooperate before the midterms, you know, it could boost the economy.
Many people of Iran are actually, you know, getting into stable coins and Bitcoin for that matter.
but stable coins, which is very important for the U.S.
because that's actually, they purchase, you know, like Tether and so forth.
They purchased government bonds, and so that is good for him.
So we still get a change, of course, of the Federal Reserve chair,
which, you know, there's going to be money printing coming before the midterm election.
But nonetheless, like historically, the midterm election were a fairly bearish phase for risk on markets.
But as I said, like that was not always the case.
Like before Bitcoin, actually before the 2008 financial crash, we had an eight-year cycle.
And so that is also possible.
And so I'm not ruling out that potentially we could move into an eight-year cycle this time or at least an extended cycle.
It's possible.
But with Bitcoin, that currently seems not happening.
And I don't know if Bitcoin is the early indicator, if it's the canary in the coal mine,
or if, you know, because we have this really low RSI print now, which looks like a bottom.
But we could hang around this low area for a couple of months,
and possibly for the next six months before we start moving out of that bearish phase.
And so it will be definitely interesting to see.
But those are some of the dynamics behind it.
And so I think the business cycle definitely had an impact on Bitcoin always,
like in terms of liquidity, like optimal liquidity conditions,
obviously incentivizes investors to invest in risk assets.
But at the same time, we had more halving impact in the early days, and that is gone.
So I think Bitcoin will become possibly more business cycle dependent moving forward
as the halving kind of fades away.
I appreciate the rundown on that.
It kind of blows your mind a little bit that like some of the things with Satoshi,
you wonder, was this like, was this planned or was this just coincidence?
And he just released it when it was ready.
And it just so happened that it lined up with these, you know,
there's so many different things like that.
But I'm curious too, because, you know, you mentioned, okay,
maybe we're getting sort of near to forming a bottom here.
Okay, could we go lower?
Will 58K gang be vindicated?
Will it go just to 59 and not 58 just to leave them blue balled?
Who knows?
But what I'm curious of is just comparing this to prior cycles, comparing where we are
now, the indicators that you're looking at, because I know you look at a lot.
If we compare what we're seeing right now with what we've seen in prior cycles, does
this look like a bottom from that perspective or does the data say something different?
Yeah, so we had like a fairly heavy capitulation event with this February 5 drop, but it wasn't of the same size as we typically see in the real bottom of the actual previous cycles.
And so for me, what this mostly looked like was,
for example, an event comparable to the June 2022 low crash that we had.
Also time-wise, and so here we can, in this chart,
actually I look at the realized price,
which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.
And I look at the short-term holder floor,
which is actually a level based on the short-term holder cost basis.
It's basically like how much loss,
like what is the maximum loss short-term holders can sustain,
practically speaking, that is the short-term holder floor level.
And so if we look at those levels, we look at them in the chart,
we actually see that we had a cross of the short-term holder floor
moving below the realized price.
And that happened in June of 2022.
and that also happened now on the February 5th crash.
And so for me, it looks like we're very much in this position.
Now, I don't know how low, as I said,
like I think there's room for another lag lower.
And in a way, time-wise is probably more important than price-wise.
I think like on a price-based level,
we are fairly under value levels.
I mean, we could have this another lag down.
You said high 50s.
You know, it might also be low 50s.
You know, who knows what the spike will be.
You know, it's usually pretty bad.
But time-wise, we actually still have a couple of months.
And so time-wise, I think there's still room to have this sideways chop,
potentially, you know, demotivating the holders in the market
because Bitcoin is basically not moving anywhere.
and so people get a bit depressed about the price action
and then before we really sat in the low.
I think usually bottom formation takes time as well.
There's always this time factor to it.
And it's not for the same reason we had a three-year bull market.
Why has it always been like more or less a three-year bull market?
For the same reason.
It's like the amount of time people can sustain
before this exponential rise in price becomes unsustainable.
And so now we're moving into this bearish phase,
and that historically tends to take slightly less than a year,
but more or less a year.
And we're a couple of months into it.
We still have probably six more months to go to form a proper bottom.
So are you of the opinion that we won't be seeing a new all-time high this year?
I'm not going to hold you to it,
but just broadly, I'm kind of curious.
You're saying if this plays out as it has in the past,
if this time is not different, history is rhyming with itself,
we won't see a new all-time high this year.
That is indeed very likely, I think.
And I hope to be proven wrong, by the way.
Of course, yeah.
We could be in a situation of 2019, for example,
where we actually hit 10K, and then we had this mini bear before the COVID crash.
We had this mini bear, and this time might also be slower,
but I have to assume the probability is higher that we still have a couple more months of price action
because I do think that the bull market, the rush that we had in the bull market is kind of gone.
like hype is elsewhere basically hype is in ai and is in gold but it's not in bitcoin and so i think
yeah bitcoin needs some time to recover form a bottom uh you know slowly start to move up and
we still have some so so the way to be proven wrong by the way so i'm not saying it's impossible
to have a new autumn high this year i think it's just unlikely to assume that it will um and before
we do we actually have to uh like we have some real resistance levels to recover which is that
psychological level of 100k like we first have to move back above the short molar cost basis
again to to move into bearer stories so so if that happens i mean i'm i'm all for it
but i still think there's a lot of resistance at that 100k level and uh and before so i think
like time wise uh it's it's unlikely for that to happen but not impossible well the interesting
thing is too that and you called this out okay uh maybe we're not as deep as prior bears have
gone, right? But the bull didn't go as high as prior bulls have gone either. I think for a lot
of people it felt perhaps disappointing Then again we did go from 16K to 126K in a couple of years So there were still moves It just felt kind of weird And maybe COVID threw a strange wrench in all of these gears but I curious too like on the subject of
diminishing returns for Bitcoin, I think one of the big arguments that's been made of late,
given the price action in gold and silver and gold, which is obviously a much larger market
cap, I mean, I think what, it's a 33 trillions, 34, something like that. Excuse me. But you saw
these massive moves in gold. You saw massive moves in silver too, which had a comparable market cap
to Bitcoin, blew through that. And now, you know, has come back down quite a bit. Do you, do you
abide by the diminishing returns side of Bitcoin, like in terms of the price action in fiat? Or,
Or, you know, I mean, is it like, is it a relative thing where it's like, yeah, okay, returns aren't going to be as high as they were in front, you know, 20, you know, like, just after, you know, the first few years of its launch, of course, they're not going to be as high as that.
But that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't still do like many multiples in a year.
Where do you sit on that?
Yeah, so I think what we have seen is that like Bitcoin is still a teenager.
Basically, 90% of the supply has been mined in these past 17 years.
and so they're mostly in the hands of OGs
and like really early holders of Bitcoin
and so we're now in this distribution phase
so there's not much new supply coming into the market
but a lot of old supply is being sold
and so there's still a lot of sell pressure
and so I think that's why again
that IPO analogy is such a great way to look at it
I think we're in this phase
where we need to move through this distribution
where that supply gets into stronger hands again,
institutional hands this time.
And then there's room because, I mean,
Bitcoin's invention is digital scarcity, right?
Now, there is some paper Bitcoin expansion
because we have the fiat system involved.
That is true.
There's futures and you can actually have a dollar-based contract
without touching Bitcoin.
That takes, again, a bit of pressure from the spot price away.
But I still think in the longer run that because Bitcoin has an instant settlement, I think there's always someone naked in that position.
And so when things get tight, you want to have real Bitcoin.
And so I think it's not as much as a problem that people perhaps think that it is currently, because there are some people out there that really think like, okay, Bitcoin is being absorbed by the same plays in the fiat system.
But I think that is natural.
I still think Bitcoin is working as the Trojan horse because I think what we're going to see is that like all these technological capabilities that Bitcoin has, like multi-six setups, and they're all also going to be installed in institutional players at some point.
It's just early on.
Institutions are just getting their feet wet.
Just as a newbie bought their first Bitcoin on an exchange and leaves it on an exchange, we now have institutions getting into the game, buying an ETF and leaving it in an ETF like with a custodian just because it's the easy first step.
But once Bitcoin gets more mature and also these multi-signature setups get more mature and also when it becomes a bigger part of a portfolio, when does a newbie change to a hardware wallet?
When, you know, the value suddenly, you know, it becomes of a sufficient size for it to do so.
And I think with the ETFs and with institutions, that's going to be a similar thing.
once you know bitcoin becomes a substantial part of the portfolio they're probably going to think
about better setups to protect their bitcoin and or spread the risk and and so so i think that's
the natural process so so i think diminishing returns have happened because you know we had
a lot of supply in the early days of bitcoin um we have uh that is all in the hands of basically
retail and ogs that that are currently selling some of that because they were right they they
They made the right bet.
Bitcoin is succeeding.
And so now we have a bit of that sell pressure.
We have gradual institutional adoption at this point,
but that will continue to increase.
And so I think at some point there's definitely going to be room
for Bitcoin to move in multiples again.
And we saw actually that happening now in gold.
In gold, it took 50 years.
It took since, like gold was suppressed since the beginning
of the fiat system and now is actually moving out of that
to a more natural price level, I would argue.
And so I think market size, it does have an impact
because at this point, as I said,
there is less retail involved in Bitcoin
or less new retail flowing into Bitcoin.
And so there is, and also retail at these price levels
has even less impact.
And institutions are actually just gradually adopting it.
And so it's no surprise that we have like this,
this, you know, very distributed price action.
going on. But I think at some point, you know, Bitcoin is again in strong enough hands,
we'll form a new bottom, and there's definitely going to be room for upside again. And it can go
fast. It's slowly than suddenly, like we saw with gold. And that's a great example, actually.
Well, and let me just like dig into that a little bit deeper here. Okay, we've established like gold
moved many, many multiples of Bitcoin's market cap, right? Like very, very quickly. Bitcoin hasn't
seen a real like parabolic move in terms of just the violence that it used to have. It hasn't had
that like face melting, just, you know, ripping off your face and leaving it on the ground.
Hasn't had what feels like it hasn't had one of those moments in a while. Does that mean that when
it does, and if that coincides with strong retail demand coming back and it coincides with, I don't
know, more wars and everything else and people looking like actually taking that flight to safety,
which Bitcoin truly does represent for those who grok it, does that mean that it still has the
potential for some of those really kind of violent, mind-bending, face-melting moves? And I mean,
what do you think it takes to bring the retail back in? Because this has been kind of seems like
the cycle of institutions, right? That's where the coins have been flowing to, from, they've been
flowing from OGs primarily to institutions. Do you think we see that shift a little bit? And we
start to at least see, okay, maybe institutions are still accumulating, but now retail is as well.
Maybe the OGs start accumulating again. Because that's the thing, they sell high and they buy low,
because they can move markets when you have tens of thousands or more coins. You can actually make
a dent in that. What's your read on it? Yeah. So institutions often obviously also represent
retail, right? We see that in treasury companies, like a lot of retails are also investing into
treasury companies because they think there's more upside potential than just buying Bitcoin.
And then that Bitcoin actually get purchased on a more gradual pace by the treasury companies.
So institutions often represent retail. And so I think moving forward, I don't claim to know
what's going to happen, but I think there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up
many multiples once we consolidate long enough.
And I think hype needs time to build up.
And I think a lot of mindshare has been taken away by AI
and by actually gold by surprise.
And so a lot of people that were chasing hype
were not in Bitcoin this time
or have left Bitcoin this time.
But at some point, Bitcoin is the perfect product in a way
to attract hype again at some point in the future.
Even if all, like, just because it's, like, global, it's internet native, it actually has all the traits you would want for something to hype up.
And so even if the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin would be bad, it would still attract hype, in my opinion.
But because it actually has real fundamentals, it's even more so.
So I think that is just, it needs time.
So I think we need at least a couple of months now to have a proper bottom formation.
Then we'll start kind of like gradually moving up that 100K level.
And at some point, like, okay, all the OGs that want to sell around that 100K level are going to be gone.
And then, you know, Bitcoin can move up very fast.
It's slowly and suddenly we've seen that example with gold.
In gold, it took 50 years.
An IPO phase often takes a couple of years.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we get a bit of this choppy price action for quite some time.
I think that wouldn't be that strange at all.
But I think Bitcoin can move fast.
So it's slowly and suddenly.
It will happen for Bitcoin.
I like it.
Somebody asked on social media when I put out that I was going to be talking with you.
they asked a good question which is what would a broken spiral look like in observable terms they
said as it uh is it peaks and troughs happening at totally different angles and prior cycles
amplitude drawdowns and returns collapsing or cycle becoming multi-peak and stretched out
and which those failure modes do you which those failure modes do you think is the most likely
in the next kind of uh the next regime is what they said but i think they mean like
in this next cycle is that something you can address a little bit like what what
what would cause these beautiful cycles
that you have to potentially break down?
Yeah, so I mean,
the spiral chart is actually
probably the most beautiful way
to illustrate the four-year cycle within Bitcoin, right?
Agreed.
So when would that break?
The lines crossing would kind of like
screw up the beauty of that illustration.
So I agree there, you know.
But I think that's actually bound to happen at some point.
So I don't think that Bitcoin is a failure because the illustration of the four-year cycle starts to break.
What it actually shows is that we're moving away from the four-year cycle.
And we saw that already with some precursors to that.
For example, we had an ultim high before the halving.
That never happened.
And that was GGE ETFs.
It was a really specific event within Bitcoin that made that happen.
but at some point you know if the business cycle would start to expand like perhaps to a five or
to six year cycle which is in the cards then obviously also the dynamics of the spiral chart
are going to change and you know maybe a bearish face but but currently we're still within well
within the bounds of that four-year cycle and so so i also don't think within the next like one and
a half year or so i i see very little reason for the spiral to break um after that we'll have to
see it depends on what the business cycle is going to do uh what liquidity conditions are going to be
like how that is moving forward um but i i think eventually we'll get to some point that potentially
um you know a price could move below a previous uh price four year prior which is actually what
the chart illustrates. But I still think generally, you know, the spiral will keep expanding, even if
it becomes an eight-year cycle instead of a four-year cycle at some point for whatever macro
reasons or geopolitical reasons, or I don't know what will influence the business cycle in that
manner, and will have probably an indirect impact on Bitcoin. I still think overall the lines will
start expanding but maybe not as beautifully in that four-year pattern which uh is fine for me
you know like i i'm okay with that you're not married to it it would make the chart look a
little bit less cool but it's uh it's not the end of the world basically i have a three year
3d spiral that i could share uh wait let me otherwise pop that up let's do it that sounds
That's great. I mean, I think it's fascinating too, because we, we try so hard to try and figure out
like what is going on. And I think so much of Bitcoin analysis tends to be very retrospective
and looking back and then trying to attribute here, this event happened at this time.
And thus, that is why Bitcoin's price did whatever it did at this time.
Oh, wow. This is, this is sweet. Okay. So this is the, okay. Yeah. Talk to me about this.
so this is a the spiral chart but see and but in 3d uh form with like over and under value levels
and um oh let me turn it a bit so so these blue dots are the halving events so this was the last
halving the fourth halving uh we can see that we had these dark green dots those actually the
autumn highs before the halving uh and then we had like this whole bullish face you know very
similar to prior cycles we were at like above the surface level so if you have the surface levels
you know above the surface level we are actually at like uh surface is actually fair value for
bitcoin based on on-chain data and then if you're above that surface level uh you're actually like
you get to like overvalue levels at some point usually when the ultimate highs happen and and
then you know at some point we move below the surface which is currently you know what what
actually just happened we now moved below the that 100k level uh and then we got like this whole
bearish face of bitcoin before we we make a bottom uh which is uh yeah the last one was
november of uh of uh of last year uh and we see in time wise that that those tend to happen
slightly earlier so it could be october this year or potentially even earlier because we also moved
into a bear market since the last autumn high a bit sooner but we're now below that that
slightly below that surface level now and and and so this illustrates the the four-year cycle uh
the spiral uh but but so so yeah if um if price would start to move back like in a 2d view and
perhaps it could cross the line but in the 3d 3d view is then it's still not crossing you know so we
We can always look at the 3D version if the two year starts failing.
I'm just kidding.
Can I ask you too, you mentioned the baseline is the fair value based on on-chain data.
Can you just explain what on-chain data you're looking at for that?
Is it realized price?
Is it short-term holder cost basis?
What is it that you use as that kind of demarcation?
Yeah, I use a top indicator and a bottom indicator that has been fairly reliable.
The top indicator is actually more based on available supply for trade.
So the amount of supply that's actually actively being traded.
And I use the realized cap there as well.
For the bottoms, I use a custom version of CVDD, which is coin value days destroyed,
which actually talks about like how many, you know, each coin when it doesn't move,
it actually builds up days.
And so once you spend the coin with a certain age,
like that value gets destroyed.
And so historically that has been a very good bottom indicator for Bitcoin
because it talks actually about the value that gets destroyed by long-term holders,
which set like a baseline for how low Bitcoin can go in a way.
And so that is what this spiral chart is based on.
I have also a 2D version of this or like a normal chart, which is called the on-chain value map.
I've shared that on my Twitter and Nostrad account many times.
So you can scroll through my feed and probably find the on-chain value map.
Those are actually the same levels that are shown as in this 3D spiral version chart.
Let me ask you two.
okay uh sometimes i feel dirty measuring bitcoin and fiat because it's like bitcoin is the measuring
stick right like it's fiat's a terrible measuring stick it's like we use the u.s dollar because it's
the prettiest horse of the glue factory it's the skinniest kid at fat camp right uh you know it's
better than measuring bitcoin in the iranian rial for example or you know the bolivar uh or insert
or the turkish lira insert any other fiat like the dollar sucks but it's still better than all
the rest, right? But if I'm to speak in dollar terms, looking ahead, what are your thoughts on
just generally like, what does it take for Bitcoin? How long does it take for Bitcoin to
actually hit that? Like in my mind, the next big psychological price level, like after 100K,
it feels like it's a million. I don't know if there's another psychological, maybe $420,696,
dollars you know something like that just for memetic purposes but like do you what do you think
is the next psychological price level is it a million and what do you think it actually takes
for us to get there in terms of cycles in terms of time um yeah so a million is still slightly far
away i mean i so let's first recover uh above the short term older cost basis and then we have to
first like get through this 100k psychological level like to form like a proper base there
So I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away.
Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.
I still think there's like, yeah, that is still a level that would probably cause a bear market at some point for whatever reason, maybe quantum foot or like, you know, I don't know.
probably there will be something between a hundred thousand and a million still that causes
a bear market so i i would still think a million dollars which by the way i definitely think we
will reach that at some point but given what i yeah i've already slightly mentioned it before
maybe not as clear like um you know we i i mentioned like we there has been less inflow
of retail and also i said like okay the the last 10 years possibly like most of people that were
interested from retail have been involved with bitcoin or have been have heard about bitcoin
through some some shape or form um and so of course there's still a slow influx of retail
every year with you know as i said like gen z coming of age and and thinking about pensions and
then starting figuring out suddenly about bitcoin uh so there will always be some influx of course
but but what i start to realize is that you know maybe bitcoin could potentially also be more of
like a generational shift um you know it's like a lot of the millenniums let's say are heavily
involved in bitcoin because they were simply of the age that they felt screwed enough by the fiat
system i mean the invention came at the right time and they started thinking about pensions
that's why there's so many so many millennials in the space i guess um and gen z was just still
slightly too young to actually start thinking about pension and so they haven't really gotten
involved as much um but but i so i also think like the older basically the millennial generation
gets uh you know the more successful bitcoin starts to become and it kind of bitcoin starts
to move in tandem with that generation i like to adopt it as a as as a base layer for society and so
so i think um you know where previously like in previous cycles i was still thinking okay we have
diminishing returns but we'll get this new influx of retail average cycle um now i start to think
like okay maybe it could also be like a more of a generational shift and so which which put pushes
actually that potentially that that million dollar goal uh perhaps further out uh on the curve um uh
and and so i wouldn't rule it out i mean that's all i'm saying i'm not saying it has to happen in
that way but i think it's definitely worth thinking about it that that in that way as well
What's the old saying? It's like humanity advances one funeral at a time. Basically, we're saying we need the boomers to die off.
We need millennials to take over I didn want to put it that bad but yeah It okay That why I here That why I here No I mean it it fair And I I mean you do have to applaud the boomers a little bit I don know like Eric Balkunas and some of the
other kind of Bitcoin ETF analysts have pointed out that the amount of draw or the amount of
outflows that you saw in the Bitcoin ETFs during this drawdown was actually way, like was very
small. Like for the most part, the boomers were holding on. They weren't disposing of their Bitcoin
just because it was a drawdown.
Like that I found to be fairly interesting.
I guess that's just because there's like a different,
there's different calculus happening there, right?
Like this is, they're taking a small portion,
a very large portfolio.
Institutions move at a slower pace.
Yeah.
Pace also like, you know,
they take a longer time to actually get involved in the market,
but once they're in there,
they'll probably stick around longer and more carefully.
I mean, there needs to be a decision made like by a board
and that takes time.
And so they move kind of slower than retail would move basically on whatever the news is saying at the moment and sell or buy at the wrong times.
So institutions avoid a bit of that hype chasing.
But also hype gets chased with institutions.
And we actually see with gold now how hype can be chased not only by retail but by a whole country.
And so I think that's definitely also in the cards for Bitcoin.
So I think that will actually happen to Bitcoin.
It will just take time.
I think what we see now, like, you know, all the basically the OGs that are in Bitcoin, we've convinced institutions that Bitcoin is worth holding.
And it's going to become a bigger part of the portfolio.
And at some point, you know, boomers indeed start dying off and millennials are starting to take over.
And, you know, it just makes sense for Bitcoin to be used as the base layer of society rather than like some, I don't know, fiat, like political dependent currency.
So, yeah.
Amen to that.
Let me ask you from a practical standpoint.
Do you advise people to, like if they come to you the same route, I want to get into Bitcoin, do I smash buy or do I start DCAing right now?
What do you tell people?
I'm going to show you another chart.
Amazing. A chart for everything. I love this, man.
Here's a chart with days until the halving.
So as I said, like, okay, the halving is becoming less relevant,
but the halving is more aligned, moves in tandem with like the four-year cycle,
which is the exact pattern we've been in.
And so here I use also the on-chain data.
So we actually, we use the realized price,
which is the average purchase price of Bitcoin.
And what we tend to see is that, you know, during a bottom formation,
we tend to move slightly below the realized price.
realized price is currently sitting at uh you know a 45k um it's still you know it's kind of
moving sideways for now so depending on what bitcoin does like if we stick around maybe in
the 70s 80s it might still move up a bit to the 50s what also is true is that bitcoin tends to move
less uh dramatically below the realized price uh each cycle so we might barely touch it this time
or perhaps this might be the first cycle
that we don't drop below it
because we also, as I said,
like the suppression to the upside
also means suppression to the downside.
We have gradual institutional adoption that continues.
We have probably a bit less of that long-term holder
selling around these price levels.
And so we could also potentially have
a more limited bottom than we made in previous cycles.
But time-wise, as we see, I think,
and that's still something I say,
I think more so time-wise than price-wise,
there's still, you know, it's not really in favor.
Like, I think there's still a couple of months ahead
that we could have this sideways chop,
potentially have another leg, like, towards that realized price
before we really start, like, building up again
and starting this upward movement.
So, you know, my recommendation for anyone,
because I think Bitcoin is already severely undervalued at minus 50%.
And also, if we look at what Bitcoin represents, what it can do for the world, like in my opinion, Bitcoin is more important than AI.
Like, you know, AI has a lot of cool things and it's going to add a lot of efficiency, but it's also going to allow governments to get away with tons of money printing, which is exactly what Bitcoin solves.
And so, you know, fundamentally, I think Bitcoin is more important for society than for humanity in general than AI is.
AI will perhaps make some lives better, but also worse.
In some situations, Bitcoin will make people's lives better, in my opinion.
And it's much needed, especially in the world moving into it with AI.
So I think, yeah, if you're wanting to get into Bitcoin,
minus 50% currently is already undervalued,
but we could still get slightly lower.
So I think the practical approach here is for the next couple of months
to just average in like and and don't try to exactly time that bottom you know it might be
awake at a certain moment in time uh maybe it has already been in you know because institutions keep
gradually buying and and the cell pressure from long-term holders starts like uh diminishing now
and and that this is it like you know would be really cool but i i think the more likely outcome
here is that we still have uh some some time of that you know forming a bottom takes time and
And especially given that mine share is taken away by AI and gold, I think, yeah, there's going to be a bit of a drag on Bitcoin's price.
Now, that's cool that we're in the 70 range now, but we see that every cycle.
We have these blue dots that represent the all-time highs, basically the bull markets.
And then we start to move in a bear.
We have a drop towards that realized price.
Then we move a bit up, and then we turn over again.
We actually make a low, and then we start moving up.
And so I think that is the pattern we've seen historically.
I think it's also the most practical to assume that that will happen.
Now, that doesn't mean that it has to happen.
I mean, I'm willing to change my mind at any moment in time.
If Bitcoin moves back above the short-term holder cost basis,
we move into bullish territory, I become a bull.
But currently, I mean, I'm a bull long-term,
but I do think we have to get through this bearish phase in the next couple of months.
Fuck, dude, are you telling me we're about to go into the 40s?
Is that what I'm hearing right now?
I actually, I mean, the higher 40s would be kind of my lowest estimate.
So I, but as I said, I don't think we have to get there because we have this, you know,
I think treasury companies like strategy will probably keep on buying this whole bottom down.
They are prepared.
They have the long-term mindset.
And I think like if we compare this to the previous bear market, like 2022,
we had a lot of these crypto companies falling over.
And so there's a bit of that fear like, oh, are the treasury companies fall over as well?
But I don't think any of the treasury companies, you know, got into this game without expecting that we could have a year bear market, which is literally what the four-year cycle has represented, like, you know, from the start.
And so, and definitely strategy isn't, you know, their, you know, liquidation price.
There's no real liquidation price, but I think it's like around 20K or something.
Like they would get in real troubles.
But yeah, I think there's like no chance that we'll get there and get that low.
So I think Saylor's play on the long term is the totally like the correct mindset.
And I think he's able to like survive this bear market.
And he's the biggest one that has the most, you know, market share in terms of treasury companies.
Maybe some small ones will still fall over if we drop a little lower because of bad like risk management.
but I think
this phase will pass and I actually
expect it to be less severe than the
22 bear market but time wise
I do think we can get like choppy
price action so we could stay
perhaps in 3 months we'll talk and we're still
at the same price that we are today
in a way that would be good
that would be like
this continuation of the
4 year cycle and then maybe have like
one more draw down slightly
but yeah
I see it also as a tremendous opportunity for someone like some of the people I talk to are actually waiting.
Like they are understanding this concept as well.
And they're waiting to become full coiners.
And so that is really cool to see.
And so I think this also allows for a tremendous opportunity.
What I'm hearing is 58K is a magnet.
That's just, you know, the prophecy will be fulfilled.
58K gang will celebrate.
and then we can, once we've had that,
then we can go parabolic.
I'm putting words in your mouth,
but this is just what I'm intuiting out of this.
Yeah, I think it's a likely outcome,
but I mean, it's all probabilities.
And so I cannot say this is what Bitcoin is going to do.
Bitcoin actually tends to do the opposite
of what most people think.
But yeah, looking at history and looking at the data
and actually looking at the current on-chain data,
because Onshin Data is not perfect in predicting what Bitcoin is going to do,
but it's fairly good at estimating in what kind of position are we currently
compared to previous cycles.
And actually, it shows we're very much in line with previous cycles.
And so as much as I want to say 4-year cycle is dead,
the 4-year cycle is not dead, not at this point.
We're exactly in the same pattern.
Yet, did we not have a parabolic move up?
Yes, that was a difference.
But yeah, there's actually good reasons for that.
I tried to explain them this time.
You know, it's gradual institutional adoption,
a bit of suppression because of a lot of OTC purchases
instead of spot.
And so we have like a much more distributed top,
which we already saw a bit in 2021.
And we saw it even more so in this cycle.
So there doesn't have to be,
there's no rule that there has to be,
that the cycle has to end with a parabolic top.
You know, that is something unsustainable to begin with.
And this time there was less hype in the market than previous cycles.
And so we had a bit more distributed price action.
Right.
Let me ask you too, are there any charts that you have here that we have not gone over yet?
There are a couple, but they're not like of major importance.
This is maybe the last interesting one to talk like about the near term.
So this is the supply distribution.
so it actually puts basically from zero to all them high where like the 21 million coins at which
price levels are they all sitting you know like so where have they been all purchased and and so
we actually see like very interesting here this is the november 2022 bottom like the 16k it's still
like fairly high bar like that and that stems all the way from 2022 so you see how this was like
really a capitulation bar now in february we had the crash we had a bar which is not as high as
as the the 2022 bottom and that's like this one is much more recent right like so so usually when
a bar is recent there's still like a significant um chance that it will move lower over time
because you know bitcoin gets sold that was like you know purchased it at this price level
and so so that also again is like one of those reasons why i think oh this looks more like a
june bottom than like a real bear market bottom yet um like currently we're sitting right in this
gap you know so we have the the 67k price level 85k level and so i we're sitting in this gap where
like there's very little supply sitting here so this is also a bit of like resistance moving into
this zone because there's like supply that might be sold uh and and here there's a bit of support
you know there's already supply bought at this and so so it's very likely in the near term to
like kind of stay within this range um i mean bitcoin can of course do whatever one it might
move like suddenly like much higher whatever like depends on on many events but i'm talking about
probabilities like a likely outcome in my opinion is to get like sideways chop within the 70 80k
range for the near term we see that by this uh on-chain distribution okay now it's a it's an
interesting chart was there was there another one you wanted to put up too uh i just want to make
sure we we get through uh through all the charts yeah we covered we covered most of it actually
uh there's there's still one on profit levels uh so this is maybe the last one that we haven't
really shared which is um uh this is a profit like short-term holder profit um and and we see now
that we're like the profit levels are very near zero which is uh which typically indicates this
bear market phase you know like these so these red bars represent the bear market basically and
so what we see is that in previous bear markets we still have we had actually quite a lot of
red bars like before we had that real bottom formation so and currently we're like in short
so it so as i said like it could be 2019 like okay maybe this time is different you know like
we could move out of the fast but my assumption like the main probability is that that yeah it
will still take some time and that we you know we need the time to make to form this bottom and that
profit levels will stay low for uh the near term and for the next couple of months so i expect these
red bars actually to continue and and be more similar to previous bear markets uh rather than
like the 2019 situation basically because like why because hype is a bit gone in the market like
it's it's it within it's with ai it's with gold it's not with bitcoin uh now there's the bitcoin
is that are with bitcoin but um but yeah those will make sure that the bottom gets formed eventually
uh before we start moving into like a new bull i don't know if you have any other questions about
this chart let me know it's it's it's fascinating stuff i mean you know i remain extremely bullish
and i guess the reason that i remain extremely bullish like even though you're telling me like
look we could probably go and maybe we could go into the 40s maybe we're probably gonna go into
the 50s maybe we're gonna crab around for a while i just wasn't expecting and this is like an
expectation setting thing i wasn't expecting to be able to buy bitcoin under 100k for such another
extended period of time like that was me being too bullish on the front end of that right but
I think there's many people in your situation, especially from like people from like our white one cycle in, they feel that they don't have enough Bitcoin yet.
I think there's tremendous opportunity for them to get more Bitcoin.
Yeah.
So I also think it's like really an opportunity that should like, you know, take advantage of this situation, guys.
Like if you're in that situation, you don't have enough Bitcoin.
And actually no one has enough Bitcoin.
but if i think of like i mean i have i have some og friends like even from 2013 2011 era you know
they're sitting on a lot of bitcoin and and so of course you know they're not really necessarily
looking to add more like you know they they're they're fine you know and and they actually are
the ones causing some of this distribution because they made the right bet you know and and i think
that's natural i mean we have this adoption but but there's nothing wrong with bitcoin bitcoin is
doing exactly what it is supposed to do.
We're following even this parallel model of adoption,
which I think is this natural phenomenon.
I think that's very realistic to continue that.
And Bitcoin has all the fundamentals there.
It keeps on improving.
Yes, there is some quantum resistance fear, as I said,
that needs to be taken care of.
But there's already people working on that.
We have Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 working on exactly that
to protect our coins.
Now, I'm not saying some of the quantum stuff
could definitely still cause another bear market
because it means like a decentralized consensus
to get consensus for having another improvement to Bitcoin,
which historically was never an easy thing to do.
But I do think we get it figured out
if the fear becomes too high, the stakes become too high.
And so people need to move
and we'll need to go through with some update
at some point.
And so I'm not afraid that that will not happen.
But yeah, Bitcoin for me represents so much opportunity.
As I said, like for me, it's more important than AI.
And I'm working with AI.
I'm actually using Kodak, Klaude.
I'm trying out these things and I see the,
like it's going to have so much impact on society.
It's, you know, we're still at the,
like only at the beginning of the impact
that AI is going to have.
and AI will also
provide tremendous opportunity
but it will also provide our government
with tremendous amount of money printing
or getting away with it again
and our lives will not really
get significantly improved
because the living standard will just increase
yes we'll have
a robot in our house
but we still cannot afford to go to the supermarket
and so yeah
that will continue
and that is what AI actually represents in a way
And so I'm so happy that there is Bitcoin as a solution.
And I think the whole millennial generation will, well, there's enough of us within Bitcoin.
We've convinced the institutions they're actually, they're not going away.
We actually have evidence that they're only increasing their positions.
Regulation is getting better in the US especially.
Was it bought? Yes.
You know, but it doesn't matter.
You know, it's going to get there and it's going to get adopted.
and we will continue
and Bitcoin will continue to infiltrate the fiat system
till it's big enough to really take over.
And I say amen to that.
I think that's a perfect note to wrap up on too.
Where can people go to find you,
to check out your newsletter,
anywhere else you want to send people?
Yeah, so I'm on Noster
and I'm on Twitter as at the rational route.
And then I have the Bitcoin strategy platform.com
and BitcoinStrategy.Substack.com
where I have my newsletter.
So if you subscribe,
you get like access to these charts.
To my insight,
I actually send out a weekly newsletter
with these updates
and paid subscriber
get actually access to all the live charts
and to extra information,
you know, to keep them prepared
for what's coming and feel comfortable.
I love it.
Well, I appreciate you breaking all this stuff down.
For us today, this was fascinating.
I think even though you say we may be going lower,
I think I'm still more bullish after this conversation.
So I don't know, mission accomplished somehow there.
I remain bullish.
I'm going to keep stacking as hard as I possibly can.
I encourage my fellow plebs to do the same.
But yeah, anything else you want to leave folks with before we close out?
No, thank you so much for having me, Walker.
And keep doing what you're doing.
Keep spreading the good information on Bitcoin.
and it's in our hands to make the world a better place
and to do whatever we can to have Bitcoin prosper also.
Amen to that.
And thank you to everybody who joined on the live stream on Noster.
This show live streams only on Noster,
so if you want to see it live,
go check out Noster if you haven't already.
Rational Root, Root, thank you so much for joining.
This was a pleasure, man.
Glad we got the chance to do this.
And yeah, again, I remain bullish.
And that's a wrap on this Bitcoin Talk episode of The Bitcoin Podcast.
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