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This is not like just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore.

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This is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer.

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I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away.

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Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.

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If you look at the four-year cycle, which Bitcoin has been moving in,

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you know, we're moving into the bearish period.

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If you're wanting to get into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued,

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but we could still get slightly lower.

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So there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up many multiples once we consolidate long enough.

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Some people say the four-year cycle is dead.

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I don't think that's the proper way to phrase it.

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I think one should say the having impact is dead, but not the four-year cycle.

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Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels.

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That's why in the next couple of months, we will form a bottom.

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I don't know exactly how low we will go, but I think our realistic outlook, that maybe is good to assume that that will happen.

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I think we're already at fairly cheap sets here.

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We're not going to reach the minus 70, minus 80% drop from an ultime high.

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Why not?

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Because we actually, we didn't have that parabolic move up.

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But there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin is doing exactly what it is supposed to do.

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Bitcoin is the Trojan horse infiltrating the fiat system.

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the rational route the rational route rational route just root maybe welcome i'm stoked to have

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you on man thank you so much for inviting me on happy to be here i have a lot i want to cover with

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you uh i want to start out maybe well first perhaps it's worthwhile just uh just walking

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through this chart. But maybe before we do that, because I know you've, and thank you for doing

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this, you've prepared a number of charts specifically for this, which I very much appreciate.

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What is your just current vibe check on where we're at right now? There's, we were talking

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about this just off camera for a second. There's a lot of different, different opinions about

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what Bitcoin is going to do next. Always. Right now, there seems the vibe seemed to have been

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weird. We had a, I think for most people, pretty disappointing last year. And then these first

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couple of months of 2026, up until, you know, a little war in Iran seemed to spike or spark off a

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little bit of a rally. It seems like things have just been weird. People have been super bearish.

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Where are you at with this? What is your kind of personal vibe check on the situation?

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Yeah, I would, I would say that Bitcoin is in a bear market. So we had like a bullish trend and

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And actually, that's why I put this chart first to kind of explain, okay, where we're currently at or how do I see the situation?

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I mean, we had, so the line that you see in this chart is the bullish trend.

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So when you have a bull market, it's an exponential trend, right?

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Like the chart, the price chart is shown here in log scale.

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And so that's why that bull trend looks like a straight, like a linear line.

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But it's actually a curved line if you would look at it in linear time.

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And so when you have a bull market, so we actually came out of a three-year bull market.

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You have this three-year exponential trend.

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And an exponential trend is always unsustainable, right?

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At some point, an exponential trend will end.

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And so the bullish trend that you see here is actually based on a regression from that price data of the bull market.

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And then I drew like a channel and I drew the bottom of the channel.

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That is that bullish trend that you see in the chart.

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And so soon after making the all-time high, we fell below that channel, the bottom of that channel, below that bullish trend line that you see in the chart.

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And so that was for me a warning signal.

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Like, okay, and this doesn't necessarily mean that it's the end of the bull market.

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In 2021, we had like a mid-cycle dip.

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We also were in an unsustainable trend in the 2021 bull market, and we still managed to make a new autumn high after, you know, in November that year.

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And so for me, it was also a bit like, okay, is this going to be like a mid-cycle dip, or are we going to move in a bear market?

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But at least what was clear is like, okay, we're not going to rise at the same trend that we were, you know, before we fell down that bullish trend.

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And so that was going to go on.

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And so, but as soon as, you know, then we fell below the $2 trillion market cap, or instead of like a multi-trillion dollar Bitcoin, we became like, again, in the single digits, you know, a trillion dollar market cap.

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And that actually coincides with the $100K psychological level, which has been a very psychological level for Bitcoiners to take profit as well.

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And so, of course, like, those are all confirmations like, okay, this is going to take a bit longer, you know, this correction.

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And then, you know, we fell below the short-term molar cost basis, obviously.

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And once we had that rebounds to the short-term molar cost base, that was actually around 97K.

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And we nearly touched 100K there.

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I actually told my followers, okay, this may be a good time to take profit because this correction might take longer.

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You know, it could take a couple months because time-wise, if you look at the four-year cycle which Bitcoin has been moving in, you know, we're moving into the bearish period.

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And so even though we didn't have that parabolic move up, and we can get a bit to that later, what the reasons are why we didn't, but we didn't have that parabolic move, which we usually tend to see at the end of a cycle.

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But then time-wise, we were actually ready to move into the bear phase.

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And so then, of course, we had this February 5 drop, and that was clearly okay.

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This bear market is going to take a little longer, and this is not just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore.

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This is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer.

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And so we currently had that 50% drop of the all-time high.

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And so now there are some differences between this cycle and the previous cycle.

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I think we're not going to reach the minus 70, minus 80% drop from an all-time high.

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Why not?

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Because we actually didn't have that parabolic move up, and so we had a much more distributed top.

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And so also it's much less likely to get these really high percentage term drawdowns.

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I think 50% is already like a severe drawdown.

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So we're already at pretty undervalued levels.

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But I still think there's also room to, especially time-wise, but also price-wise, to maybe potentially have another leg down before we really start moving up.

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Let me ask you too, what does another leg down look like?

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Because I was listening to your conversation.

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You were on Danny Knoll's show, formerly Peter McCormack's show, of what Bitcoin did.

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I think it was November of 25.

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And Bitcoin was hovering right around 100K at that point.

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And you called out, you were like, look, we may go lower.

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We may go 50% lower.

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I don't think we go much lower than that.

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Now, we've basically done almost exactly what you just said there could happen.

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We got down, I think, what the low was like.

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I don't know if we fully broke 60, but we were right around the lowest 60s there.

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I mean, so do you think, is this like the 58K gang prophecy that is going to be coming back?

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Is that what we're going to hit?

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But I've seen also people, I mean, every analyst loves drawing lines on charts.

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And a lot of them are like, see, this is why Bitcoin's going to 40K, 30K, 20K, 10K, zero, negative, whatever.

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You know, you see so much noise out there.

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So what's kind of like the signal for you here?

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So first in the November 10, we had like this huge, actually the biggest liquidations happening in the industry.

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It was mainly crypto, but also Bitcoin was affected.

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That was that first drop, actually, which brought us below that bullish trend and below the 100K level.

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So that was, in my opinion, the first leg down.

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And then we had a rejection of the short-term molar cost basis.

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And the February 5th drop was really like that second leg down.

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Now, we now have some consolidation.

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We're now in that – we're actually in the low 70 range.

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I think we can stay between 70, 80 for some time.

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but potentially indeed we might go to those upper 50s the 58 gang i think is uh is a a level that's

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actually highly likely to reach uh within the next couple months but there are also some reasons why

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we don't have to get there and it's mainly it's mainly because um you know and i think um i speak

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for you as well here most of us bitcoin bitcoiners that have been a long time in this market and

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understand the value proposition of Bitcoin already think Bitcoin is severely undervalued

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at these levels. And I think pretty much the majority of us would agree on that. And so that

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also means that we are less tempted to sell at these levels. And so we've had a lot of sell

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pressure around that 100K level. But I think moving forward, we're going to see less sell pressure

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you know, at these, the lower we go. And so, and the same, at the same time, you know,

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passive flows or actually like institutional gradual adoption will continue. Now, not at the

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same level as during the bull market, but I do think that's why in the next couple of months,

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we will form a bottom. And so I don't know exactly how low we'll go, but I think the upper

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50s are a realistic outlook that maybe is good to assume that that will happen. And then if we

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don't get there, you know, that is fine. So also, I would recommend, like, I think we're already at

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fairly cheap sats here. And so, you know, it's very hard to time the bottom. I mean, we can do

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this with the four-year cycle, but there are some divergences from the four-year cycle, and we can

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get into some of those details in a bit. But it's very hard to time the exact bottom and the exact

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price, right? And so it's much more practical to just average in during these next couple of months.

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And if we get a lot of leg down, that is actually a tremendous opportunity for the time to come.

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Because what is happening on the other side is we really have a measurable institutional adoption

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that continues. I mean, news comes out every week. We saw now again, Kraken became a bank. And so even

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the industry is kind of converging with the fiat system, right? Kraken is becoming a bank.

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On the other side, I think Morgan Stanley is starting an ETF. That was news of just like the

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last two days or so. And so we see that institutions are entering the space. I actually measure that by

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observing 13F filings. And we can get, I have actually a chart on that. Maybe I'll open that

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So this is the chart on the total ETF holdings.

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And what I try to do here is see the share of institutional holdings from the total ETF holdings.

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And this is a very conservative estimate because this is actually only institutions that are required to report.

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And those institutions need to have portfolios of 100 million plus.

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And so there's probably a lot more smaller institutions that are not required to report that are not reflected in this data.

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So this is a very conservative estimate of institutional holdings.

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But we see a clear uptrend over the past years.

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And obviously, the price has been a little disappointing.

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And we're kind of flat.

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We're down one percentage point of total holdings.

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But it's actually even less than a percentage point.

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so so but but what we can see is actually institutions are here they're getting their

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feet wet in this cycle I mean we literally had this cycle was actually the gateway like ETFs which

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opened for institutions to come into the space and we have seen that happening and we will continue

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to see that happening and especially once we move through this bottom formation and once we get like

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into new bull market, you know, also some of those institutions are starting to feel more of those

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gains, and they're going to be happier to, you know, allocate more, a bigger percentage of their

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portfolio to Bitcoin. One of the interesting things for me, and River put out a great chart on this,

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showing basically the change from in holding patterns between different entities, essentially

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showing, look, individuals in 2025 decreased their holdings. And who did that get sopped up by? Well,

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it got sopped up by the institutions. And I'm curious, just as you look at the current price

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action, obviously from my, like, I haven't, obviously don't look into this as deeply as you

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do. That's why I have you here to educate me. But I look at a lot of the OG selling that we know has

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happened. You had that single galaxy whale who got rid of what, 80,000 Bitcoin. Like that's one guy,

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one guy getting rid of 80,000. You know, there's a bunch of other whales that have been selling.

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I had Lynn Alden on recently. She pointed out like, look, Walker whales sell every cycle,

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right? But for, I think for a lot of whales, this cycle, it's like a hundred K was very much like a

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magic number they've been holding since it was a few dollars or maybe a few cents or a few hundred

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or even a couple thousand. They've got sitting on massive, massive gains. Okay. They're rotating

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out a little bit, but is that what you think has been the primary driver behind the current kind of

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just, let's say, chop solidation lower, the crab market lower, or is this something more cyclical?

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Like this is just what's bound to happen every cycle. If cycles exist, we can kind of get into

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that later a little bit too. But what's your read on that in terms of kind of the primary driver for

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Yeah, so I think the primary reason why we had this such a distributed cycle in general,

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so I do believe cycles are happening, by the way, and I do think we're in a bearish phase currently.

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And I think the 100K was a very psychological level, and we see actually that we can actually confirm that by unchain data.

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There was an equal amount of selling of coins, even though we only reached much lower prices, like barely above 100K.

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But we still had equal distribution to previous cycle in terms of actual BTC.

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And so why is that the case?

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I mean, and a factor actually to diminishing returns in general each cycle have been the fact that we have compounded sell pressure from each class of Bitcoin, right?

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So I don't know when you got exactly in, but we have the class of 13, the class of 17, the class of 21.

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And so all these classes…

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Class of 20 for me.

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Yeah, so we have all these classes, they came in at different price levels.

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But even for the class of 20 or class 21, you're looking at a 10x gain for the 100k price level.

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But for a class earlier, that was like a 100x gain.

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And for a class before that, it was a 1,000x gain.

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And we're also getting to liquidity.

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Bitcoin is liquid enough to actually sell some of those early coins.

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Like before previously, in previous cycles, that wasn't really possible.

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And so I think this 100K psychological level, much like the 10K psychological level, it also took a long time.

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We have hovered a long time around the 10K level, had a bearish phase below it, and then got back above it.

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Again, hovered around it for a long time before we were actually able to move out of that.

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And I think that is also happening with the 100K psychological level.

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And so, yeah, I've been referring a lot of times to this IPO moment.

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I think that is exactly what has happened this cycle.

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So in a way, there are actually some really shifts this cycle in which the cycle differs to previous cycle.

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First of all, this was actually the cycle with the least amount of retail inflow so far.

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um uh and and and so but we've moved to institutional inflow which is exactly what

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we want to see if we want bitcoin to succeed by the way and so i also think it's inevitable i mean

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some people view like okay bitcoin is being absorbed by the fiat system i think that's not

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happening at all you know bitcoin is the trojan horse like infiltrating the fiat system and like

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how were we supposed to get to you know uh world like full adoption of bitcoin without institutions

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getting involved.

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I mean, that is impossible.

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I think that happened basically

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is that most of retail

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that wanted to get into Bitcoin

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had 10 years to do so.

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And we are here, you know,

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and we're believing it, you know.

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And so, and to the level now

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that we convinced institutions

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that it's here to stay

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and they're investing in it.

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But so I also think

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in moving into the next cycles,

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I mean, there's still going to be

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some new people that you know we're missing here and there but in general I

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think you know probably some of the the Gen Z years that that are coming of age

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like to actually think about start thinking maybe potentially about retirement or a pension or something like they might get involved they suddenly get it but that is like a relatively small amount i think you know like so

242
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i think what we're going to see is indeed like we're going to see a continuation of stronger

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institutional adoption uh and at the same time we're we're yeah we're currently at this ipo moment

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where long-term holders are still distributing some of their coins and making their lives better but

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But at some point, we're going to reach that level where most of us sold the majority of coins we would want to sell.

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I think there's a limit for every holder.

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We want to improve our lives and possibly distribute some of our coins to have this improvement to our lives.

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But at some point, it stops.

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Then the lives are improved.

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We're going to sit on the rest.

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And so I think we're moving through that phase.

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And I think that what we're going to see over the next months is that we're going to form this bottom.

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There's going to be less selling from long-term holders because especially it's not going to be as interesting to sell at these lower prices.

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Like long-term holders are going to sell the least possible, but possibly some are obliged to sell for whatever reason.

255
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So there will be still some selling, but I don't think it will be as much as the levels that we've seen around that $100K price level.

256
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But once we get again back above that 100K price level, there might be some more distribution and that will still take some time.

257
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But we will get out of that and then we're up for like really a proper next bull market.

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I want to get into a couple points there.

259
00:22:14,180 --> 00:22:24,080
But first, I do want to ask, you mentioned, and I think this is something that a lot of folks have sensed, is that the retail demand, you know, retail demand was really not here this last cycle.

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There just wasn't the same level of hype just generally.

261
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That being said, you also had the ETFs during this cycle.

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So I mean, just I'm curious your thoughts was a lot of the, quote, retail demand that

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you'd usually see in just spot Bitcoin actually just funneled through the ETFs.

264
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Or was it still, even with the ETFs, still less retail demand than you would expect?

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Yeah, so even with the ETFs, I think it was less retail than we would expect.

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I still think there was a significant amount of retail

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but there was definitely more institutional interest

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in Bitcoin this cycle

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and one important thing to understand

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is that retail, you know,

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in general, in previous cycles indeed

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they would buy through exchanges

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and that would set the spot price

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it would more heavily impact the spot price

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but the retail that came into the space

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through ETFs.

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And I mean, this week there was actually some talk

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about manipulation, you know, price suppression of Bitcoin.

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And because we cannot believe we're at these minus 50%

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from all time high levels, you know,

281
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we all think like as maximalists, like, okay,

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Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels.

283
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Bitcoin should not be, like it should be way above 100.

284
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In our minds, Bitcoin is worth 200K or above, you know.

285
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And so, but that is not the general mindset of people

286
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like coming that invest in stocks, you know, who now maybe for the first time allocated some of

287
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their money through these ETFs to Bitcoin as well. And so I think those are definitely people with

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less conviction than we are. But because they came in through this gateway, there is in a way

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a suppression of price because ETFs, they sometimes do an in-kind creation, which is gold. And so they

290
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they buy Bitcoin OTC.

291
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And so that less impacts the spot price of Bitcoin.

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And so we have ETFs,

293
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like some of these authorized partners for ETFs,

294
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they try to get their Bitcoin,

295
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:41,180
obviously the cheapest or like most,

296
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the best way possible for them

297
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to have the most profit as well.

298
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And so they look at OTC markets

299
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and try to get these coins and influence the price the least possible.

300
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And so in that sense, like the rumors about price suppression are not entirely incorrect.

301
00:24:58,180 --> 00:25:04,860
I think one, you know, and it's not that OTC doesn't have an effect on Bitcoin

302
00:25:04,860 --> 00:25:09,460
because there's only so much OTC and some OTC desk will hatch,

303
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,320
well, at exchanges with spot Bitcoin.

304
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And so there's some of these dynamics going on.

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But what I do think that if you buy OTC, you're actually taking sell pressure or buy pressure away from the spot market, and it's more indirect.

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And so in a way, it's a bit of suppressing price.

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And that's why also I think we've had such more distributed market in general.

308
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And because ETFs were one of the primary inflows of demand for Bitcoin this cycle.

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And so less retail purchases through spot exchanges.

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And even some of the retail that now came in came through ETFs.

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And institutional adoption came in through ETFs or treasury companies, which many times works with these OTC desks.

312
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And so there was less impact on the actual price of Bitcoin.

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So I think if all of that would have gotten into the spot market, you would probably have like a much more volatile Bitcoin price.

314
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Now, in the long term, I think, you know, Bitcoin still will go where it goes.

315
00:26:17,620 --> 00:26:19,280
You know, also OTC.

316
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:27,060
I mean, if someone buys OTC and someone sells OTC, you know, that doesn't directly affect the Bitcoin price.

317
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But still, you know, if that OTC purchase wouldn't be there or that transfer, I should say, there's always a buyer and a seller.

318
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Or it would have gone through the spot market.

319
00:26:38,300 --> 00:26:41,020
It would have had a more direct impact.

320
00:26:41,020 --> 00:26:44,560
But there still would have been an equal amount of sell pressure and buy pressure.

321
00:26:44,940 --> 00:26:50,140
So I think it's like a temporary suppression of price a bit.

322
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:55,320
And so in a way, some of those Jane Street algorithms that...

323
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,460
I mean, there's some suppression going on with ETFs.

324
00:26:59,540 --> 00:27:02,780
But those are the general mechanics behind ETFs.

325
00:27:02,780 --> 00:27:04,660
You know, they have these structures.

326
00:27:04,900 --> 00:27:09,860
And OTC markets were there long before ETFs even were involved in the space.

327
00:27:11,140 --> 00:27:15,460
You know, there's many OGs that sell, buy and sell Bitcoin through OTC.

328
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:22,540
And so, you know, you could blame the same on those OGs for not affecting the spot price as much, right?

329
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,1000
I think that that is what a free market does.

330
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:27,220
Fair enough.

331
00:27:27,340 --> 00:27:30,300
And let me ask you two just on the cycle side of things.

332
00:27:30,300 --> 00:27:34,580
you said you still think that the four-year cycles are there.

333
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,960
How much of this, though, in terms of the four-year cycles,

334
00:27:38,060 --> 00:27:40,120
ends up just lining up with the business cycle,

335
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,540
with the overall liquidity cycle from a monetary sense?

336
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,200
How much, you know, I mean, it also lines up with, like, elections

337
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,380
to a certain extent, too.

338
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,560
How much of it do you think in terms of the four-year cycles

339
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:56,780
is actually, like, having driven from a Bitcoin perspective

340
00:27:56,780 --> 00:27:59,320
versus, yeah, it's like,

341
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,300
does the halving have a diminishing effect?

342
00:28:01,460 --> 00:28:05,600
Obviously, as it halves, the block reward halves,

343
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,100
and how much of it is or always was influenced

344
00:28:09,100 --> 00:28:12,300
by more of the external business cycle side of things.

345
00:28:12,420 --> 00:28:13,680
I'd love your take on that.

346
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,500
Yeah, so I actually have a chart on midterm elections,

347
00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:19,240
the effect on that,

348
00:28:19,340 --> 00:28:21,360
and where we actually look at the business cycle

349
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:23,800
and how that moves in tandem

350
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,300
with the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.

351
00:28:26,780 --> 00:28:44,320
And so there is the, you know, some people say the four-year cycle is that, you know, like, but what I actually think, like, I don't think that's the proper way to phrase it. I think one should say the having impact is that, but not the four-year cycle. I mean, we're still well within the bounds of the four-year cycle currently.

352
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Now, that doesn't mean that we couldn't move out of it in the next couple of years.

353
00:28:49,820 --> 00:28:53,200
You know, I think there's actually fair reason to assume we possibly could.

354
00:28:53,1000 --> 00:28:55,840
But currently, we're not.

355
00:28:55,840 --> 00:29:13,960
And so, you know, for some mystical reason, you know, Satoshi chose the four-year period for, you know, the halving, which reduces the subsidy, basically, for Bitcoin.

356
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:19,060
to have Bitcoin properly flourish.

357
00:29:19,259 --> 00:29:21,259
I mean, that's what the subsidy actually is,

358
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,420
having a subsidy for miners to start mining.

359
00:29:24,580 --> 00:29:26,920
And so Bitcoin eventually will have to do without subsidy.

360
00:29:27,380 --> 00:29:30,259
It should be able to work on its own

361
00:29:30,259 --> 00:29:31,820
without any subsidy from the network.

362
00:29:32,700 --> 00:29:37,960
And so instead of a gradual decrease in that subsidy,

363
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,060
Satoshi chose this four-year period

364
00:29:41,060 --> 00:29:43,640
and halved it with this shock.

365
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,040
Now, in the beginning, that shock was, of course, very severe.

366
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And we had a lot of early investors in there.

367
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:55,860
But coincidentally, like the business cycle was always also in a four-year period.

368
00:29:56,340 --> 00:30:03,740
And so I think liquidity has always affected Bitcoin much.

369
00:30:03,740 --> 00:30:12,940
And of course, over time, we've gone from the early OG or Cyperpunk movement.

370
00:30:13,420 --> 00:30:23,600
We've moved to now people with a stock portfolio investing in Bitcoin, which is a whole different cohort that is now currently investing.

371
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:29,200
But all are driven by actually liquidity.

372
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:44,120
You know, like also the early cypherpunks probably were more incentivized to spend some of their money and put it in Bitcoin in the early phases when the market was doing well, you know, when they had a bit of extra money to do these things.

373
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,900
And so the business cycle always had a huge effect, in my opinion, on Bitcoin.

374
00:30:47,900 --> 00:30:51,580
And that has moved in tandem with the halving impact.

375
00:30:51,759 --> 00:30:56,200
And previously, the halving impact had a much bigger impact on Bitcoin than it currently has.

376
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,400
and so we also saw a lot of higher gains

377
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:00,480
in those early cycles

378
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,460
and currently not as much

379
00:31:02,460 --> 00:31:04,340
the halving didn't have as much impact

380
00:31:04,340 --> 00:31:06,620
the ETF approval actually had more impact

381
00:31:06,620 --> 00:31:08,220
we made an ultimate high before the halving

382
00:31:08,220 --> 00:31:10,340
because of ETFs not because of the halving

383
00:31:10,340 --> 00:31:12,999
and so that shows

384
00:31:12,999 --> 00:31:14,680
how we've kind of moved from

385
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,680
before we had

386
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,740
much more halving impact

387
00:31:18,740 --> 00:31:20,880
to now very little halving impact

388
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,300
to now

389
00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:24,880
a gateway like ETFs

390
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:25,820
having more impact

391
00:31:25,820 --> 00:31:30,280
but we still have moved within that four-year business cycle but the business cycle wasn't

392
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:35,499
always four years so of course like why why do business cycles move in four years and that has

393
00:31:35,499 --> 00:31:41,320
to again probably do with presidential elections uh you know that move on a four-year basis and so

394
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:47,300
they stimulate the economy and then uh you know in the midterms usually uh it's like a bit of a

395
00:31:47,300 --> 00:31:53,640
bearish phase for uh stocks in general risk on assets and and that's what we currently uh well

396
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,740
Currently, there's a bit of divergence going on.

397
00:31:55,820 --> 00:31:59,280
And I think that has to do with kind of an after effect of COVID.

398
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,040
So we came out of COVID with a lot of money printing.

399
00:32:02,180 --> 00:32:04,280
And then, you know, we had a bit of a difficult market.

400
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:09,220
And so people were struggling and businesses were struggling to get like to deal with all this inflation.

401
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:16,140
And so we kind of like, you know, so in this chart, I actually showed the midterm cycle.

402
00:32:16,140 --> 00:32:18,759
So you see all the midterms.

403
00:32:18,759 --> 00:32:26,400
and we see how how bitcoin generally you know may like a blow around that midterm uh and and

404
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:32,660
currently this is uh in in orange we actually look at the yearly rsi for bitcoin in light blue we look

405
00:32:32,660 --> 00:32:38,220
at the yearly rsi for the s&p 500 which a risk on assets with bitcoin has high correlation with

406
00:32:38,220 --> 00:32:46,400
and then in dark blue we look at the ism um at the at the pmi the business cycle um and the

407
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:51,540
business cycle index now moved above 50, which is actually means that we're getting out of like a

408
00:32:51,540 --> 00:32:57,480
bearish phase, but where Bitcoin actually just printed the low in the RSI comparable to like

409
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:02,499
previous bear markets. And so, and we're getting close to that midterm that's this year, but we

410
00:33:02,499 --> 00:33:09,120
also see that the S&P is kind of rolling over. And so I, so it's very hard to, to, to know how

411
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:15,060
the market's going to move forward. Is the S&P going to crash before the midterm still, you know,

412
00:33:15,060 --> 00:33:20,380
Trump obviously doesn't want to. He's doing everything he can to influence, you know, to keep this from happening.

413
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:24,700
I think he possibly Iran is one of those plays on that as well.

414
00:33:24,700 --> 00:33:30,700
Like if he can fix that war and have Iran cooperate before the midterms, you know, it could boost the economy.

415
00:33:31,620 --> 00:33:36,980
Many people of Iran are actually, you know, getting into stable coins and Bitcoin for that matter.

416
00:33:36,980 --> 00:33:39,680
but stable coins, which is very important for the U.S.

417
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:45,660
because that's actually, they purchase, you know, like Tether and so forth.

418
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,960
They purchased government bonds, and so that is good for him.

419
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:57,220
So we still get a change, of course, of the Federal Reserve chair,

420
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:03,360
which, you know, there's going to be money printing coming before the midterm election.

421
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:10,939
But nonetheless, like historically, the midterm election were a fairly bearish phase for risk on markets.

422
00:34:11,540 --> 00:34:14,100
But as I said, like that was not always the case.

423
00:34:14,240 --> 00:34:20,519
Like before Bitcoin, actually before the 2008 financial crash, we had an eight-year cycle.

424
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:22,459
And so that is also possible.

425
00:34:22,660 --> 00:34:30,519
And so I'm not ruling out that potentially we could move into an eight-year cycle this time or at least an extended cycle.

426
00:34:30,700 --> 00:34:31,260
It's possible.

427
00:34:31,260 --> 00:34:34,320
But with Bitcoin, that currently seems not happening.

428
00:34:34,620 --> 00:34:39,459
And I don't know if Bitcoin is the early indicator, if it's the canary in the coal mine,

429
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:47,160
or if, you know, because we have this really low RSI print now, which looks like a bottom.

430
00:34:47,220 --> 00:34:50,080
But we could hang around this low area for a couple of months,

431
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,479
and possibly for the next six months before we start moving out of that bearish phase.

432
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,080
And so it will be definitely interesting to see.

433
00:34:57,220 --> 00:34:59,100
But those are some of the dynamics behind it.

434
00:34:59,100 --> 00:35:04,100
And so I think the business cycle definitely had an impact on Bitcoin always,

435
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,040
like in terms of liquidity, like optimal liquidity conditions,

436
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:13,640
obviously incentivizes investors to invest in risk assets.

437
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,680
But at the same time, we had more halving impact in the early days, and that is gone.

438
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:26,260
So I think Bitcoin will become possibly more business cycle dependent moving forward

439
00:35:26,260 --> 00:35:28,200
as the halving kind of fades away.

440
00:35:29,100 --> 00:35:32,240
I appreciate the rundown on that.

441
00:35:32,340 --> 00:35:35,959
It kind of blows your mind a little bit that like some of the things with Satoshi,

442
00:35:36,620 --> 00:35:41,720
you wonder, was this like, was this planned or was this just coincidence?

443
00:35:41,720 --> 00:35:43,439
And he just released it when it was ready.

444
00:35:43,439 --> 00:35:46,100
And it just so happened that it lined up with these, you know,

445
00:35:46,100 --> 00:35:47,580
there's so many different things like that.

446
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,200
But I'm curious too, because, you know, you mentioned, okay,

447
00:35:50,860 --> 00:35:54,040
maybe we're getting sort of near to forming a bottom here.

448
00:35:54,100 --> 00:35:55,040
Okay, could we go lower?

449
00:35:55,140 --> 00:35:56,939
Will 58K gang be vindicated?

450
00:35:56,939 --> 00:36:00,740
Will it go just to 59 and not 58 just to leave them blue balled?

451
00:36:00,979 --> 00:36:01,439
Who knows?

452
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:08,439
But what I'm curious of is just comparing this to prior cycles, comparing where we are

453
00:36:08,439 --> 00:36:11,620
now, the indicators that you're looking at, because I know you look at a lot.

454
00:36:11,820 --> 00:36:18,060
If we compare what we're seeing right now with what we've seen in prior cycles, does

455
00:36:18,060 --> 00:36:23,519
this look like a bottom from that perspective or does the data say something different?

456
00:36:23,519 --> 00:36:38,260
Yeah, so we had like a fairly heavy capitulation event with this February 5 drop, but it wasn't of the same size as we typically see in the real bottom of the actual previous cycles.

457
00:36:38,939 --> 00:36:42,600
And so for me, what this mostly looked like was,

458
00:36:42,979 --> 00:36:48,060
for example, an event comparable to the June 2022 low crash that we had.

459
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,300
Also time-wise, and so here we can, in this chart,

460
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:53,939
actually I look at the realized price,

461
00:36:54,019 --> 00:36:56,220
which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.

462
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,040
And I look at the short-term holder floor,

463
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:04,100
which is actually a level based on the short-term holder cost basis.

464
00:37:04,660 --> 00:37:08,439
It's basically like how much loss,

465
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,540
like what is the maximum loss short-term holders can sustain,

466
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:15,800
practically speaking, that is the short-term holder floor level.

467
00:37:16,220 --> 00:37:19,580
And so if we look at those levels, we look at them in the chart,

468
00:37:19,580 --> 00:37:23,920
we actually see that we had a cross of the short-term holder floor

469
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,720
moving below the realized price.

470
00:37:27,420 --> 00:37:29,840
And that happened in June of 2022.

471
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:35,360
and that also happened now on the February 5th crash.

472
00:37:35,860 --> 00:37:39,560
And so for me, it looks like we're very much in this position.

473
00:37:40,180 --> 00:37:43,100
Now, I don't know how low, as I said,

474
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,419
like I think there's room for another lag lower.

475
00:37:45,979 --> 00:37:50,019
And in a way, time-wise is probably more important than price-wise.

476
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,260
I think like on a price-based level,

477
00:37:52,499 --> 00:37:54,740
we are fairly under value levels.

478
00:37:54,860 --> 00:37:56,519
I mean, we could have this another lag down.

479
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,140
You said high 50s.

480
00:37:59,140 --> 00:38:02,260
You know, it might also be low 50s.

481
00:38:02,340 --> 00:38:04,180
You know, who knows what the spike will be.

482
00:38:04,499 --> 00:38:06,019
You know, it's usually pretty bad.

483
00:38:06,580 --> 00:38:09,800
But time-wise, we actually still have a couple of months.

484
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:17,459
And so time-wise, I think there's still room to have this sideways chop,

485
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:22,040
potentially, you know, demotivating the holders in the market

486
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,060
because Bitcoin is basically not moving anywhere.

487
00:38:25,060 --> 00:38:29,200
and so people get a bit depressed about the price action

488
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,519
and then before we really sat in the low.

489
00:38:31,620 --> 00:38:35,260
I think usually bottom formation takes time as well.

490
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,019
There's always this time factor to it.

491
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,380
And it's not for the same reason we had a three-year bull market.

492
00:38:42,499 --> 00:38:45,040
Why has it always been like more or less a three-year bull market?

493
00:38:45,540 --> 00:38:46,540
For the same reason.

494
00:38:46,540 --> 00:38:49,200
It's like the amount of time people can sustain

495
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:55,600
before this exponential rise in price becomes unsustainable.

496
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,280
And so now we're moving into this bearish phase,

497
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:03,120
and that historically tends to take slightly less than a year,

498
00:39:03,240 --> 00:39:04,120
but more or less a year.

499
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:05,419
And we're a couple of months into it.

500
00:39:05,419 --> 00:39:10,760
We still have probably six more months to go to form a proper bottom.

501
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:16,840
So are you of the opinion that we won't be seeing a new all-time high this year?

502
00:39:17,019 --> 00:39:18,160
I'm not going to hold you to it,

503
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,080
but just broadly, I'm kind of curious.

504
00:39:20,300 --> 00:39:23,860
You're saying if this plays out as it has in the past,

505
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:28,220
if this time is not different, history is rhyming with itself,

506
00:39:28,860 --> 00:39:31,040
we won't see a new all-time high this year.

507
00:39:31,820 --> 00:39:35,760
That is indeed very likely, I think.

508
00:39:36,999 --> 00:39:39,820
And I hope to be proven wrong, by the way.

509
00:39:40,340 --> 00:39:41,300
Of course, yeah.

510
00:39:41,300 --> 00:39:46,300
We could be in a situation of 2019, for example,

511
00:39:46,300 --> 00:39:55,519
where we actually hit 10K, and then we had this mini bear before the COVID crash.

512
00:39:55,519 --> 00:40:01,120
We had this mini bear, and this time might also be slower,

513
00:40:01,300 --> 00:40:09,019
but I have to assume the probability is higher that we still have a couple more months of price action

514
00:40:09,019 --> 00:40:15,120
because I do think that the bull market, the rush that we had in the bull market is kind of gone.

515
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:21,479
like hype is elsewhere basically hype is in ai and is in gold but it's not in bitcoin and so i think

516
00:40:21,479 --> 00:40:27,060
yeah bitcoin needs some time to recover form a bottom uh you know slowly start to move up and

517
00:40:27,060 --> 00:40:31,160
we still have some so so the way to be proven wrong by the way so i'm not saying it's impossible

518
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:37,100
to have a new autumn high this year i think it's just unlikely to assume that it will um and before

519
00:40:37,100 --> 00:40:42,800
we do we actually have to uh like we have some real resistance levels to recover which is that

520
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:47,499
psychological level of 100k like we first have to move back above the short molar cost basis

521
00:40:47,499 --> 00:40:52,519
again to to move into bearer stories so so if that happens i mean i'm i'm all for it

522
00:40:52,519 --> 00:40:58,939
but i still think there's a lot of resistance at that 100k level and uh and before so i think

523
00:40:58,939 --> 00:41:06,019
like time wise uh it's it's unlikely for that to happen but not impossible well the interesting

524
00:41:06,019 --> 00:41:12,499
thing is too that and you called this out okay uh maybe we're not as deep as prior bears have

525
00:41:12,499 --> 00:41:18,320
gone, right? But the bull didn't go as high as prior bulls have gone either. I think for a lot

526
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:37,419
of people it felt perhaps disappointing Then again we did go from 16K to 126K in a couple of years So there were still moves It just felt kind of weird And maybe COVID threw a strange wrench in all of these gears but I curious too like on the subject of

527
00:41:37,419 --> 00:41:42,599
diminishing returns for Bitcoin, I think one of the big arguments that's been made of late,

528
00:41:42,599 --> 00:41:47,519
given the price action in gold and silver and gold, which is obviously a much larger market

529
00:41:47,519 --> 00:41:56,699
cap, I mean, I think what, it's a 33 trillions, 34, something like that. Excuse me. But you saw

530
00:41:56,699 --> 00:42:01,859
these massive moves in gold. You saw massive moves in silver too, which had a comparable market cap

531
00:42:01,859 --> 00:42:07,879
to Bitcoin, blew through that. And now, you know, has come back down quite a bit. Do you, do you

532
00:42:07,879 --> 00:42:14,879
abide by the diminishing returns side of Bitcoin, like in terms of the price action in fiat? Or,

533
00:42:14,879 --> 00:42:27,179
Or, you know, I mean, is it like, is it a relative thing where it's like, yeah, okay, returns aren't going to be as high as they were in front, you know, 20, you know, like, just after, you know, the first few years of its launch, of course, they're not going to be as high as that.

534
00:42:27,219 --> 00:42:31,379
But that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't still do like many multiples in a year.

535
00:42:31,619 --> 00:42:32,699
Where do you sit on that?

536
00:42:33,639 --> 00:42:37,459
Yeah, so I think what we have seen is that like Bitcoin is still a teenager.

537
00:42:38,419 --> 00:42:43,639
Basically, 90% of the supply has been mined in these past 17 years.

538
00:42:43,639 --> 00:42:46,839
and so they're mostly in the hands of OGs

539
00:42:46,839 --> 00:42:49,499
and like really early holders of Bitcoin

540
00:42:49,499 --> 00:42:51,879
and so we're now in this distribution phase

541
00:42:51,879 --> 00:42:55,299
so there's not much new supply coming into the market

542
00:42:55,299 --> 00:42:57,699
but a lot of old supply is being sold

543
00:42:57,699 --> 00:42:59,439
and so there's still a lot of sell pressure

544
00:42:59,439 --> 00:43:01,939
and so I think that's why again

545
00:43:01,939 --> 00:43:07,459
that IPO analogy is such a great way to look at it

546
00:43:07,459 --> 00:43:08,879
I think we're in this phase

547
00:43:08,879 --> 00:43:12,499
where we need to move through this distribution

548
00:43:12,499 --> 00:43:16,119
where that supply gets into stronger hands again,

549
00:43:16,279 --> 00:43:17,739
institutional hands this time.

550
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,459
And then there's room because, I mean,

551
00:43:21,639 --> 00:43:24,039
Bitcoin's invention is digital scarcity, right?

552
00:43:24,479 --> 00:43:28,679
Now, there is some paper Bitcoin expansion

553
00:43:28,679 --> 00:43:31,139
because we have the fiat system involved.

554
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:31,919
That is true.

555
00:43:33,059 --> 00:43:36,599
There's futures and you can actually have a dollar-based contract

556
00:43:36,599 --> 00:43:37,899
without touching Bitcoin.

557
00:43:37,899 --> 00:43:42,279
That takes, again, a bit of pressure from the spot price away.

558
00:43:42,499 --> 00:43:56,339
But I still think in the longer run that because Bitcoin has an instant settlement, I think there's always someone naked in that position.

559
00:43:56,339 --> 00:44:02,599
And so when things get tight, you want to have real Bitcoin.

560
00:44:02,599 --> 00:44:17,719
And so I think it's not as much as a problem that people perhaps think that it is currently, because there are some people out there that really think like, okay, Bitcoin is being absorbed by the same plays in the fiat system.

561
00:44:17,919 --> 00:44:19,179
But I think that is natural.

562
00:44:19,179 --> 00:44:33,359
I still think Bitcoin is working as the Trojan horse because I think what we're going to see is that like all these technological capabilities that Bitcoin has, like multi-six setups, and they're all also going to be installed in institutional players at some point.

563
00:44:33,439 --> 00:44:34,299
It's just early on.

564
00:44:34,579 --> 00:44:36,659
Institutions are just getting their feet wet.

565
00:44:36,659 --> 00:44:48,379
Just as a newbie bought their first Bitcoin on an exchange and leaves it on an exchange, we now have institutions getting into the game, buying an ETF and leaving it in an ETF like with a custodian just because it's the easy first step.

566
00:44:48,379 --> 00:44:58,499
But once Bitcoin gets more mature and also these multi-signature setups get more mature and also when it becomes a bigger part of a portfolio, when does a newbie change to a hardware wallet?

567
00:44:58,919 --> 00:45:05,539
When, you know, the value suddenly, you know, it becomes of a sufficient size for it to do so.

568
00:45:05,599 --> 00:45:10,479
And I think with the ETFs and with institutions, that's going to be a similar thing.

569
00:45:10,479 --> 00:45:15,939
once you know bitcoin becomes a substantial part of the portfolio they're probably going to think

570
00:45:15,939 --> 00:45:22,599
about better setups to protect their bitcoin and or spread the risk and and so so i think that's

571
00:45:22,599 --> 00:45:27,979
the natural process so so i think diminishing returns have happened because you know we had

572
00:45:27,979 --> 00:45:33,819
a lot of supply in the early days of bitcoin um we have uh that is all in the hands of basically

573
00:45:33,819 --> 00:45:38,419
retail and ogs that that are currently selling some of that because they were right they they

574
00:45:38,419 --> 00:45:39,439
They made the right bet.

575
00:45:39,559 --> 00:45:41,059
Bitcoin is succeeding.

576
00:45:41,699 --> 00:45:44,399
And so now we have a bit of that sell pressure.

577
00:45:45,019 --> 00:45:47,739
We have gradual institutional adoption at this point,

578
00:45:47,799 --> 00:45:49,439
but that will continue to increase.

579
00:45:49,959 --> 00:45:53,199
And so I think at some point there's definitely going to be room

580
00:45:53,199 --> 00:45:55,739
for Bitcoin to move in multiples again.

581
00:45:56,359 --> 00:45:59,379
And we saw actually that happening now in gold.

582
00:45:59,619 --> 00:46:01,219
In gold, it took 50 years.

583
00:46:01,459 --> 00:46:04,099
It took since, like gold was suppressed since the beginning

584
00:46:04,099 --> 00:46:07,299
of the fiat system and now is actually moving out of that

585
00:46:07,299 --> 00:46:10,719
to a more natural price level, I would argue.

586
00:46:10,999 --> 00:46:15,479
And so I think market size, it does have an impact

587
00:46:15,479 --> 00:46:17,479
because at this point, as I said,

588
00:46:17,539 --> 00:46:19,419
there is less retail involved in Bitcoin

589
00:46:19,419 --> 00:46:22,599
or less new retail flowing into Bitcoin.

590
00:46:23,219 --> 00:46:26,179
And so there is, and also retail at these price levels

591
00:46:26,179 --> 00:46:28,179
has even less impact.

592
00:46:28,779 --> 00:46:31,739
And institutions are actually just gradually adopting it.

593
00:46:31,799 --> 00:46:33,979
And so it's no surprise that we have like this,

594
00:46:33,979 --> 00:46:36,919
this, you know, very distributed price action.

595
00:46:37,299 --> 00:46:42,759
going on. But I think at some point, you know, Bitcoin is again in strong enough hands,

596
00:46:42,759 --> 00:46:47,199
we'll form a new bottom, and there's definitely going to be room for upside again. And it can go

597
00:46:47,199 --> 00:46:52,859
fast. It's slowly than suddenly, like we saw with gold. And that's a great example, actually.

598
00:46:53,739 --> 00:46:59,079
Well, and let me just like dig into that a little bit deeper here. Okay, we've established like gold

599
00:46:59,079 --> 00:47:06,279
moved many, many multiples of Bitcoin's market cap, right? Like very, very quickly. Bitcoin hasn't

600
00:47:06,279 --> 00:47:13,359
seen a real like parabolic move in terms of just the violence that it used to have. It hasn't had

601
00:47:13,359 --> 00:47:17,819
that like face melting, just, you know, ripping off your face and leaving it on the ground.

602
00:47:18,259 --> 00:47:23,299
Hasn't had what feels like it hasn't had one of those moments in a while. Does that mean that when

603
00:47:23,299 --> 00:47:29,699
it does, and if that coincides with strong retail demand coming back and it coincides with, I don't

604
00:47:29,699 --> 00:47:35,819
know, more wars and everything else and people looking like actually taking that flight to safety,

605
00:47:35,819 --> 00:47:40,439
which Bitcoin truly does represent for those who grok it, does that mean that it still has the

606
00:47:40,439 --> 00:47:47,079
potential for some of those really kind of violent, mind-bending, face-melting moves? And I mean,

607
00:47:47,199 --> 00:47:52,899
what do you think it takes to bring the retail back in? Because this has been kind of seems like

608
00:47:52,899 --> 00:47:58,379
the cycle of institutions, right? That's where the coins have been flowing to, from, they've been

609
00:47:58,379 --> 00:48:05,039
flowing from OGs primarily to institutions. Do you think we see that shift a little bit? And we

610
00:48:05,039 --> 00:48:09,959
start to at least see, okay, maybe institutions are still accumulating, but now retail is as well.

611
00:48:10,039 --> 00:48:15,739
Maybe the OGs start accumulating again. Because that's the thing, they sell high and they buy low,

612
00:48:15,739 --> 00:48:22,279
because they can move markets when you have tens of thousands or more coins. You can actually make

613
00:48:22,279 --> 00:48:28,879
a dent in that. What's your read on it? Yeah. So institutions often obviously also represent

614
00:48:28,879 --> 00:48:34,559
retail, right? We see that in treasury companies, like a lot of retails are also investing into

615
00:48:34,559 --> 00:48:38,899
treasury companies because they think there's more upside potential than just buying Bitcoin.

616
00:48:39,479 --> 00:48:44,659
And then that Bitcoin actually get purchased on a more gradual pace by the treasury companies.

617
00:48:46,059 --> 00:48:54,019
So institutions often represent retail. And so I think moving forward, I don't claim to know

618
00:48:54,019 --> 00:48:57,759
what's going to happen, but I think there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up

619
00:48:57,759 --> 00:49:02,059
many multiples once we consolidate long enough.

620
00:49:02,199 --> 00:49:04,759
And I think hype needs time to build up.

621
00:49:04,879 --> 00:49:09,699
And I think a lot of mindshare has been taken away by AI

622
00:49:09,699 --> 00:49:12,179
and by actually gold by surprise.

623
00:49:12,639 --> 00:49:14,359
And so a lot of people that were chasing hype

624
00:49:14,359 --> 00:49:15,699
were not in Bitcoin this time

625
00:49:15,699 --> 00:49:18,379
or have left Bitcoin this time.

626
00:49:18,979 --> 00:49:23,799
But at some point, Bitcoin is the perfect product in a way

627
00:49:23,799 --> 00:49:26,519
to attract hype again at some point in the future.

628
00:49:26,519 --> 00:49:37,379
Even if all, like, just because it's, like, global, it's internet native, it actually has all the traits you would want for something to hype up.

629
00:49:37,839 --> 00:49:45,559
And so even if the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin would be bad, it would still attract hype, in my opinion.

630
00:49:45,699 --> 00:49:48,899
But because it actually has real fundamentals, it's even more so.

631
00:49:49,319 --> 00:49:51,759
So I think that is just, it needs time.

632
00:49:51,759 --> 00:49:56,919
So I think we need at least a couple of months now to have a proper bottom formation.

633
00:49:57,179 --> 00:50:00,879
Then we'll start kind of like gradually moving up that 100K level.

634
00:50:01,299 --> 00:50:07,119
And at some point, like, okay, all the OGs that want to sell around that 100K level are going to be gone.

635
00:50:07,459 --> 00:50:11,479
And then, you know, Bitcoin can move up very fast.

636
00:50:11,679 --> 00:50:14,299
It's slowly and suddenly we've seen that example with gold.

637
00:50:14,759 --> 00:50:16,099
In gold, it took 50 years.

638
00:50:17,219 --> 00:50:20,299
An IPO phase often takes a couple of years.

639
00:50:20,299 --> 00:50:26,919
So I wouldn't be surprised if we get a bit of this choppy price action for quite some time.

640
00:50:27,439 --> 00:50:31,939
I think that wouldn't be that strange at all.

641
00:50:32,019 --> 00:50:33,899
But I think Bitcoin can move fast.

642
00:50:34,999 --> 00:50:36,959
So it's slowly and suddenly.

643
00:50:37,139 --> 00:50:38,239
It will happen for Bitcoin.

644
00:50:40,339 --> 00:50:41,199
I like it.

645
00:50:41,279 --> 00:50:45,279
Somebody asked on social media when I put out that I was going to be talking with you.

646
00:50:45,279 --> 00:50:51,299
they asked a good question which is what would a broken spiral look like in observable terms they

647
00:50:51,299 --> 00:50:56,759
said as it uh is it peaks and troughs happening at totally different angles and prior cycles

648
00:50:56,759 --> 00:51:02,259
amplitude drawdowns and returns collapsing or cycle becoming multi-peak and stretched out

649
00:51:02,259 --> 00:51:07,019
and which those failure modes do you which those failure modes do you think is the most likely

650
00:51:07,019 --> 00:51:10,939
in the next kind of uh the next regime is what they said but i think they mean like

651
00:51:10,939 --> 00:51:15,039
in this next cycle is that something you can address a little bit like what what

652
00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:17,619
what would cause these beautiful cycles

653
00:51:17,619 --> 00:51:19,219
that you have to potentially break down?

654
00:51:19,779 --> 00:51:21,299
Yeah, so I mean,

655
00:51:22,059 --> 00:51:24,019
the spiral chart is actually

656
00:51:24,019 --> 00:51:26,679
probably the most beautiful way

657
00:51:26,679 --> 00:51:29,499
to illustrate the four-year cycle within Bitcoin, right?

658
00:51:29,599 --> 00:51:29,839
Agreed.

659
00:51:30,379 --> 00:51:32,559
So when would that break?

660
00:51:33,099 --> 00:51:35,419
The lines crossing would kind of like

661
00:51:35,419 --> 00:51:37,339
screw up the beauty of that illustration.

662
00:51:37,639 --> 00:51:39,099
So I agree there, you know.

663
00:51:39,439 --> 00:51:43,419
But I think that's actually bound to happen at some point.

664
00:51:43,419 --> 00:51:51,539
So I don't think that Bitcoin is a failure because the illustration of the four-year cycle starts to break.

665
00:51:51,999 --> 00:51:56,079
What it actually shows is that we're moving away from the four-year cycle.

666
00:51:57,879 --> 00:52:01,399
And we saw that already with some precursors to that.

667
00:52:01,579 --> 00:52:03,859
For example, we had an ultim high before the halving.

668
00:52:03,959 --> 00:52:04,679
That never happened.

669
00:52:05,659 --> 00:52:07,099
And that was GGE ETFs.

670
00:52:07,139 --> 00:52:11,439
It was a really specific event within Bitcoin that made that happen.

671
00:52:11,439 --> 00:52:18,459
but at some point you know if the business cycle would start to expand like perhaps to a five or

672
00:52:18,459 --> 00:52:25,339
to six year cycle which is in the cards then obviously also the dynamics of the spiral chart

673
00:52:25,339 --> 00:52:30,679
are going to change and you know maybe a bearish face but but currently we're still within well

674
00:52:30,679 --> 00:52:36,219
within the bounds of that four-year cycle and so so i also don't think within the next like one and

675
00:52:36,219 --> 00:52:43,759
a half year or so i i see very little reason for the spiral to break um after that we'll have to

676
00:52:43,759 --> 00:52:49,199
see it depends on what the business cycle is going to do uh what liquidity conditions are going to be

677
00:52:49,199 --> 00:52:55,179
like how that is moving forward um but i i think eventually we'll get to some point that potentially

678
00:52:55,179 --> 00:53:03,659
um you know a price could move below a previous uh price four year prior which is actually what

679
00:53:03,659 --> 00:53:11,979
the chart illustrates. But I still think generally, you know, the spiral will keep expanding, even if

680
00:53:11,979 --> 00:53:17,159
it becomes an eight-year cycle instead of a four-year cycle at some point for whatever macro

681
00:53:17,159 --> 00:53:22,319
reasons or geopolitical reasons, or I don't know what will influence the business cycle in that

682
00:53:22,319 --> 00:53:30,819
manner, and will have probably an indirect impact on Bitcoin. I still think overall the lines will

683
00:53:30,819 --> 00:53:37,359
start expanding but maybe not as beautifully in that four-year pattern which uh is fine for me

684
00:53:37,359 --> 00:53:42,859
you know like i i'm okay with that you're not married to it it would make the chart look a

685
00:53:42,859 --> 00:53:47,939
little bit less cool but it's uh it's not the end of the world basically i have a three year

686
00:53:47,939 --> 00:53:56,019
3d spiral that i could share uh wait let me otherwise pop that up let's do it that sounds

687
00:53:56,019 --> 00:54:01,179
That's great. I mean, I think it's fascinating too, because we, we try so hard to try and figure out

688
00:54:01,179 --> 00:54:09,279
like what is going on. And I think so much of Bitcoin analysis tends to be very retrospective

689
00:54:09,279 --> 00:54:13,479
and looking back and then trying to attribute here, this event happened at this time.

690
00:54:13,579 --> 00:54:16,979
And thus, that is why Bitcoin's price did whatever it did at this time.

691
00:54:17,419 --> 00:54:22,519
Oh, wow. This is, this is sweet. Okay. So this is the, okay. Yeah. Talk to me about this.

692
00:54:22,519 --> 00:54:29,719
so this is a the spiral chart but see and but in 3d uh form with like over and under value levels

693
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:36,519
and um oh let me turn it a bit so so these blue dots are the halving events so this was the last

694
00:54:36,519 --> 00:54:41,179
halving the fourth halving uh we can see that we had these dark green dots those actually the

695
00:54:41,179 --> 00:54:46,139
autumn highs before the halving uh and then we had like this whole bullish face you know very

696
00:54:46,139 --> 00:54:50,819
similar to prior cycles we were at like above the surface level so if you have the surface levels

697
00:54:50,819 --> 00:54:57,139
you know above the surface level we are actually at like uh surface is actually fair value for

698
00:54:57,139 --> 00:55:03,599
bitcoin based on on-chain data and then if you're above that surface level uh you're actually like

699
00:55:03,599 --> 00:55:09,959
you get to like overvalue levels at some point usually when the ultimate highs happen and and

700
00:55:09,959 --> 00:55:14,939
then you know at some point we move below the surface which is currently you know what what

701
00:55:14,939 --> 00:55:21,879
actually just happened we now moved below the that 100k level uh and then we got like this whole

702
00:55:21,879 --> 00:55:28,259
bearish face of bitcoin before we we make a bottom uh which is uh yeah the last one was

703
00:55:28,259 --> 00:55:35,539
november of uh of uh of last year uh and we see in time wise that that those tend to happen

704
00:55:35,539 --> 00:55:40,499
slightly earlier so it could be october this year or potentially even earlier because we also moved

705
00:55:40,499 --> 00:55:47,299
into a bear market since the last autumn high a bit sooner but we're now below that that

706
00:55:48,179 --> 00:55:54,419
slightly below that surface level now and and and so this illustrates the the four-year cycle uh

707
00:55:54,419 --> 00:56:02,659
the spiral uh but but so so yeah if um if price would start to move back like in a 2d view and

708
00:56:02,659 --> 00:56:07,779
perhaps it could cross the line but in the 3d 3d view is then it's still not crossing you know so we

709
00:56:07,779 --> 00:56:11,299
We can always look at the 3D version if the two year starts failing.

710
00:56:12,539 --> 00:56:13,319
I'm just kidding.

711
00:56:13,599 --> 00:56:19,119
Can I ask you too, you mentioned the baseline is the fair value based on on-chain data.

712
00:56:19,499 --> 00:56:23,239
Can you just explain what on-chain data you're looking at for that?

713
00:56:23,319 --> 00:56:24,659
Is it realized price?

714
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,239
Is it short-term holder cost basis?

715
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:29,979
What is it that you use as that kind of demarcation?

716
00:56:30,499 --> 00:56:36,039
Yeah, I use a top indicator and a bottom indicator that has been fairly reliable.

717
00:56:36,039 --> 00:56:40,979
The top indicator is actually more based on available supply for trade.

718
00:56:41,079 --> 00:56:43,859
So the amount of supply that's actually actively being traded.

719
00:56:44,739 --> 00:56:47,559
And I use the realized cap there as well.

720
00:56:47,979 --> 00:56:55,479
For the bottoms, I use a custom version of CVDD, which is coin value days destroyed,

721
00:56:55,979 --> 00:57:01,359
which actually talks about like how many, you know, each coin when it doesn't move,

722
00:57:01,379 --> 00:57:02,839
it actually builds up days.

723
00:57:03,659 --> 00:57:06,319
And so once you spend the coin with a certain age,

724
00:57:06,439 --> 00:57:07,759
like that value gets destroyed.

725
00:57:08,279 --> 00:57:14,859
And so historically that has been a very good bottom indicator for Bitcoin

726
00:57:14,859 --> 00:57:20,219
because it talks actually about the value that gets destroyed by long-term holders,

727
00:57:20,219 --> 00:57:25,399
which set like a baseline for how low Bitcoin can go in a way.

728
00:57:26,039 --> 00:57:28,839
And so that is what this spiral chart is based on.

729
00:57:28,839 --> 00:57:35,699
I have also a 2D version of this or like a normal chart, which is called the on-chain value map.

730
00:57:35,859 --> 00:57:40,039
I've shared that on my Twitter and Nostrad account many times.

731
00:57:40,199 --> 00:57:44,459
So you can scroll through my feed and probably find the on-chain value map.

732
00:57:44,599 --> 00:57:51,099
Those are actually the same levels that are shown as in this 3D spiral version chart.

733
00:57:53,559 --> 00:57:54,799
Let me ask you two.

734
00:57:54,799 --> 00:58:01,899
okay uh sometimes i feel dirty measuring bitcoin and fiat because it's like bitcoin is the measuring

735
00:58:01,899 --> 00:58:06,699
stick right like it's fiat's a terrible measuring stick it's like we use the u.s dollar because it's

736
00:58:06,699 --> 00:58:11,099
the prettiest horse of the glue factory it's the skinniest kid at fat camp right uh you know it's

737
00:58:11,099 --> 00:58:17,619
better than measuring bitcoin in the iranian rial for example or you know the bolivar uh or insert

738
00:58:17,619 --> 00:58:22,739
or the turkish lira insert any other fiat like the dollar sucks but it's still better than all

739
00:58:22,739 --> 00:58:30,419
the rest, right? But if I'm to speak in dollar terms, looking ahead, what are your thoughts on

740
00:58:30,419 --> 00:58:35,939
just generally like, what does it take for Bitcoin? How long does it take for Bitcoin to

741
00:58:35,939 --> 00:58:41,119
actually hit that? Like in my mind, the next big psychological price level, like after 100K,

742
00:58:41,199 --> 00:58:48,259
it feels like it's a million. I don't know if there's another psychological, maybe $420,696,

743
00:58:48,259 --> 00:58:52,839
dollars you know something like that just for memetic purposes but like do you what do you think

744
00:58:52,839 --> 00:58:56,899
is the next psychological price level is it a million and what do you think it actually takes

745
00:58:56,899 --> 00:59:06,039
for us to get there in terms of cycles in terms of time um yeah so a million is still slightly far

746
00:59:06,039 --> 00:59:12,239
away i mean i so let's first recover uh above the short term older cost basis and then we have to

747
00:59:12,239 --> 00:59:17,319
first like get through this 100k psychological level like to form like a proper base there

748
00:59:17,319 --> 00:59:21,799
So I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away.

749
00:59:21,959 --> 00:59:26,539
Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.

750
00:59:27,259 --> 00:59:40,579
I still think there's like, yeah, that is still a level that would probably cause a bear market at some point for whatever reason, maybe quantum foot or like, you know, I don't know.

751
00:59:40,579 --> 00:59:47,779
probably there will be something between a hundred thousand and a million still that causes

752
00:59:47,779 --> 00:59:52,339
a bear market so i i would still think a million dollars which by the way i definitely think we

753
00:59:52,339 --> 00:59:57,639
will reach that at some point but given what i yeah i've already slightly mentioned it before

754
00:59:57,639 --> 01:00:05,219
maybe not as clear like um you know we i i mentioned like we there has been less inflow

755
01:00:05,219 --> 01:00:12,119
of retail and also i said like okay the the last 10 years possibly like most of people that were

756
01:00:12,119 --> 01:00:18,579
interested from retail have been involved with bitcoin or have been have heard about bitcoin

757
01:00:18,579 --> 01:00:24,839
through some some shape or form um and so of course there's still a slow influx of retail

758
01:00:24,839 --> 01:00:30,279
every year with you know as i said like gen z coming of age and and thinking about pensions and

759
01:00:30,279 --> 01:00:34,699
then starting figuring out suddenly about bitcoin uh so there will always be some influx of course

760
01:00:34,699 --> 01:00:42,559
but but what i start to realize is that you know maybe bitcoin could potentially also be more of

761
01:00:42,559 --> 01:00:48,639
like a generational shift um you know it's like a lot of the millenniums let's say are heavily

762
01:00:48,639 --> 01:00:54,059
involved in bitcoin because they were simply of the age that they felt screwed enough by the fiat

763
01:00:54,059 --> 01:00:57,539
system i mean the invention came at the right time and they started thinking about pensions

764
01:00:57,539 --> 01:01:03,979
that's why there's so many so many millennials in the space i guess um and gen z was just still

765
01:01:03,979 --> 01:01:08,039
slightly too young to actually start thinking about pension and so they haven't really gotten

766
01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:15,819
involved as much um but but i so i also think like the older basically the millennial generation

767
01:01:15,819 --> 01:01:22,379
gets uh you know the more successful bitcoin starts to become and it kind of bitcoin starts

768
01:01:22,379 --> 01:01:28,379
to move in tandem with that generation i like to adopt it as a as as a base layer for society and so

769
01:01:28,379 --> 01:01:33,459
so i think um you know where previously like in previous cycles i was still thinking okay we have

770
01:01:33,459 --> 01:01:38,499
diminishing returns but we'll get this new influx of retail average cycle um now i start to think

771
01:01:38,499 --> 01:01:44,639
like okay maybe it could also be like a more of a generational shift and so which which put pushes

772
01:01:44,639 --> 01:01:52,319
actually that potentially that that million dollar goal uh perhaps further out uh on the curve um uh

773
01:01:52,319 --> 01:01:56,479
and and so i wouldn't rule it out i mean that's all i'm saying i'm not saying it has to happen in

774
01:01:56,479 --> 01:02:00,759
that way but i think it's definitely worth thinking about it that that in that way as well

775
01:02:00,759 --> 01:02:10,139
What's the old saying? It's like humanity advances one funeral at a time. Basically, we're saying we need the boomers to die off.

776
01:02:10,139 --> 01:02:25,359
We need millennials to take over I didn want to put it that bad but yeah It okay That why I here That why I here No I mean it it fair And I I mean you do have to applaud the boomers a little bit I don know like Eric Balkunas and some of the

777
01:02:25,359 --> 01:02:30,219
other kind of Bitcoin ETF analysts have pointed out that the amount of draw or the amount of

778
01:02:30,219 --> 01:02:35,999
outflows that you saw in the Bitcoin ETFs during this drawdown was actually way, like was very

779
01:02:35,999 --> 01:02:41,219
small. Like for the most part, the boomers were holding on. They weren't disposing of their Bitcoin

780
01:02:41,219 --> 01:02:42,299
just because it was a drawdown.

781
01:02:42,479 --> 01:02:45,339
Like that I found to be fairly interesting.

782
01:02:45,439 --> 01:02:46,919
I guess that's just because there's like a different,

783
01:02:47,019 --> 01:02:49,559
there's different calculus happening there, right?

784
01:02:49,579 --> 01:02:51,399
Like this is, they're taking a small portion,

785
01:02:51,899 --> 01:02:52,959
a very large portfolio.

786
01:02:53,359 --> 01:02:54,699
Institutions move at a slower pace.

787
01:02:54,939 --> 01:02:55,159
Yeah.

788
01:02:55,279 --> 01:02:56,619
Pace also like, you know,

789
01:02:56,639 --> 01:02:59,499
they take a longer time to actually get involved in the market,

790
01:02:59,499 --> 01:03:00,579
but once they're in there,

791
01:03:00,639 --> 01:03:03,519
they'll probably stick around longer and more carefully.

792
01:03:03,758 --> 01:03:07,279
I mean, there needs to be a decision made like by a board

793
01:03:07,279 --> 01:03:08,419
and that takes time.

794
01:03:08,419 --> 01:03:17,119
And so they move kind of slower than retail would move basically on whatever the news is saying at the moment and sell or buy at the wrong times.

795
01:03:17,579 --> 01:03:20,899
So institutions avoid a bit of that hype chasing.

796
01:03:21,419 --> 01:03:23,839
But also hype gets chased with institutions.

797
01:03:24,039 --> 01:03:30,539
And we actually see with gold now how hype can be chased not only by retail but by a whole country.

798
01:03:30,779 --> 01:03:33,159
And so I think that's definitely also in the cards for Bitcoin.

799
01:03:34,099 --> 01:03:36,459
So I think that will actually happen to Bitcoin.

800
01:03:36,639 --> 01:03:37,519
It will just take time.

801
01:03:37,519 --> 01:03:48,959
I think what we see now, like, you know, all the basically the OGs that are in Bitcoin, we've convinced institutions that Bitcoin is worth holding.

802
01:03:49,279 --> 01:03:51,639
And it's going to become a bigger part of the portfolio.

803
01:03:51,819 --> 01:03:57,499
And at some point, you know, boomers indeed start dying off and millennials are starting to take over.

804
01:03:57,499 --> 01:04:08,439
And, you know, it just makes sense for Bitcoin to be used as the base layer of society rather than like some, I don't know, fiat, like political dependent currency.

805
01:04:09,439 --> 01:04:10,279
So, yeah.

806
01:04:11,079 --> 01:04:11,779
Amen to that.

807
01:04:12,419 --> 01:04:14,039
Let me ask you from a practical standpoint.

808
01:04:14,359 --> 01:04:22,459
Do you advise people to, like if they come to you the same route, I want to get into Bitcoin, do I smash buy or do I start DCAing right now?

809
01:04:22,479 --> 01:04:23,219
What do you tell people?

810
01:04:24,419 --> 01:04:26,619
I'm going to show you another chart.

811
01:04:27,499 --> 01:04:30,199
Amazing. A chart for everything. I love this, man.

812
01:04:30,559 --> 01:04:33,839
Here's a chart with days until the halving.

813
01:04:34,059 --> 01:04:36,599
So as I said, like, okay, the halving is becoming less relevant,

814
01:04:36,799 --> 01:04:40,159
but the halving is more aligned, moves in tandem with like the four-year cycle,

815
01:04:40,159 --> 01:04:42,079
which is the exact pattern we've been in.

816
01:04:42,599 --> 01:04:45,559
And so here I use also the on-chain data.

817
01:04:45,679 --> 01:04:47,259
So we actually, we use the realized price,

818
01:04:47,339 --> 01:04:49,179
which is the average purchase price of Bitcoin.

819
01:04:49,639 --> 01:04:53,119
And what we tend to see is that, you know, during a bottom formation,

820
01:04:53,119 --> 01:04:56,519
we tend to move slightly below the realized price.

821
01:04:56,519 --> 01:05:03,719
realized price is currently sitting at uh you know a 45k um it's still you know it's kind of

822
01:05:03,719 --> 01:05:09,239
moving sideways for now so depending on what bitcoin does like if we stick around maybe in

823
01:05:09,239 --> 01:05:15,759
the 70s 80s it might still move up a bit to the 50s what also is true is that bitcoin tends to move

824
01:05:15,759 --> 01:05:24,019
less uh dramatically below the realized price uh each cycle so we might barely touch it this time

825
01:05:24,019 --> 01:05:26,299
or perhaps this might be the first cycle

826
01:05:26,299 --> 01:05:27,439
that we don't drop below it

827
01:05:27,439 --> 01:05:28,759
because we also, as I said,

828
01:05:28,979 --> 01:05:31,079
like the suppression to the upside

829
01:05:31,079 --> 01:05:33,999
also means suppression to the downside.

830
01:05:34,339 --> 01:05:36,739
We have gradual institutional adoption that continues.

831
01:05:36,899 --> 01:05:39,259
We have probably a bit less of that long-term holder

832
01:05:39,259 --> 01:05:40,879
selling around these price levels.

833
01:05:41,499 --> 01:05:44,999
And so we could also potentially have

834
01:05:44,999 --> 01:05:49,319
a more limited bottom than we made in previous cycles.

835
01:05:49,579 --> 01:05:51,519
But time-wise, as we see, I think,

836
01:05:51,599 --> 01:05:53,119
and that's still something I say,

837
01:05:53,119 --> 01:05:55,679
I think more so time-wise than price-wise,

838
01:05:56,139 --> 01:05:58,939
there's still, you know, it's not really in favor.

839
01:05:59,119 --> 01:06:00,979
Like, I think there's still a couple of months ahead

840
01:06:00,979 --> 01:06:04,139
that we could have this sideways chop,

841
01:06:04,419 --> 01:06:07,439
potentially have another leg, like, towards that realized price

842
01:06:07,439 --> 01:06:10,599
before we really start, like, building up again

843
01:06:10,599 --> 01:06:12,219
and starting this upward movement.

844
01:06:12,879 --> 01:06:16,159
So, you know, my recommendation for anyone,

845
01:06:16,159 --> 01:06:20,019
because I think Bitcoin is already severely undervalued at minus 50%.

846
01:06:20,019 --> 01:06:28,379
And also, if we look at what Bitcoin represents, what it can do for the world, like in my opinion, Bitcoin is more important than AI.

847
01:06:28,999 --> 01:06:38,079
Like, you know, AI has a lot of cool things and it's going to add a lot of efficiency, but it's also going to allow governments to get away with tons of money printing, which is exactly what Bitcoin solves.

848
01:06:38,239 --> 01:06:47,099
And so, you know, fundamentally, I think Bitcoin is more important for society than for humanity in general than AI is.

849
01:06:47,099 --> 01:06:51,099
AI will perhaps make some lives better, but also worse.

850
01:06:51,659 --> 01:06:55,899
In some situations, Bitcoin will make people's lives better, in my opinion.

851
01:06:56,059 --> 01:07:00,819
And it's much needed, especially in the world moving into it with AI.

852
01:07:02,179 --> 01:07:06,139
So I think, yeah, if you're wanting to get into Bitcoin,

853
01:07:06,419 --> 01:07:09,359
minus 50% currently is already undervalued,

854
01:07:09,599 --> 01:07:11,919
but we could still get slightly lower.

855
01:07:12,299 --> 01:07:16,119
So I think the practical approach here is for the next couple of months

856
01:07:16,119 --> 01:07:22,119
to just average in like and and don't try to exactly time that bottom you know it might be

857
01:07:22,119 --> 01:07:27,319
awake at a certain moment in time uh maybe it has already been in you know because institutions keep

858
01:07:27,319 --> 01:07:32,659
gradually buying and and the cell pressure from long-term holders starts like uh diminishing now

859
01:07:32,659 --> 01:07:38,139
and and that this is it like you know would be really cool but i i think the more likely outcome

860
01:07:38,139 --> 01:07:44,059
here is that we still have uh some some time of that you know forming a bottom takes time and

861
01:07:44,059 --> 01:07:52,299
And especially given that mine share is taken away by AI and gold, I think, yeah, there's going to be a bit of a drag on Bitcoin's price.

862
01:07:52,899 --> 01:07:57,699
Now, that's cool that we're in the 70 range now, but we see that every cycle.

863
01:07:57,699 --> 01:08:02,659
We have these blue dots that represent the all-time highs, basically the bull markets.

864
01:08:03,079 --> 01:08:04,239
And then we start to move in a bear.

865
01:08:04,339 --> 01:08:06,979
We have a drop towards that realized price.

866
01:08:07,079 --> 01:08:11,359
Then we move a bit up, and then we turn over again.

867
01:08:11,499 --> 01:08:13,939
We actually make a low, and then we start moving up.

868
01:08:14,059 --> 01:08:16,559
And so I think that is the pattern we've seen historically.

869
01:08:16,779 --> 01:08:19,779
I think it's also the most practical to assume that that will happen.

870
01:08:20,579 --> 01:08:22,599
Now, that doesn't mean that it has to happen.

871
01:08:22,759 --> 01:08:24,918
I mean, I'm willing to change my mind at any moment in time.

872
01:08:24,998 --> 01:08:27,319
If Bitcoin moves back above the short-term holder cost basis,

873
01:08:27,739 --> 01:08:30,418
we move into bullish territory, I become a bull.

874
01:08:31,379 --> 01:08:34,579
But currently, I mean, I'm a bull long-term,

875
01:08:34,998 --> 01:08:38,619
but I do think we have to get through this bearish phase in the next couple of months.

876
01:08:39,539 --> 01:08:41,898
Fuck, dude, are you telling me we're about to go into the 40s?

877
01:08:42,019 --> 01:08:43,379
Is that what I'm hearing right now?

878
01:08:44,059 --> 01:08:51,219
I actually, I mean, the higher 40s would be kind of my lowest estimate.

879
01:08:51,759 --> 01:08:56,979
So I, but as I said, I don't think we have to get there because we have this, you know,

880
01:08:57,059 --> 01:09:02,019
I think treasury companies like strategy will probably keep on buying this whole bottom down.

881
01:09:02,119 --> 01:09:02,679
They are prepared.

882
01:09:02,839 --> 01:09:04,398
They have the long-term mindset.

883
01:09:04,398 --> 01:09:10,859
And I think like if we compare this to the previous bear market, like 2022,

884
01:09:11,079 --> 01:09:13,159
we had a lot of these crypto companies falling over.

885
01:09:13,159 --> 01:09:17,539
And so there's a bit of that fear like, oh, are the treasury companies fall over as well?

886
01:09:17,679 --> 01:09:30,279
But I don't think any of the treasury companies, you know, got into this game without expecting that we could have a year bear market, which is literally what the four-year cycle has represented, like, you know, from the start.

887
01:09:30,479 --> 01:09:36,859
And so, and definitely strategy isn't, you know, their, you know, liquidation price.

888
01:09:37,139 --> 01:09:41,219
There's no real liquidation price, but I think it's like around 20K or something.

889
01:09:41,219 --> 01:09:43,799
Like they would get in real troubles.

890
01:09:44,319 --> 01:09:48,379
But yeah, I think there's like no chance that we'll get there and get that low.

891
01:09:48,759 --> 01:09:53,159
So I think Saylor's play on the long term is the totally like the correct mindset.

892
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:57,819
And I think he's able to like survive this bear market.

893
01:09:57,879 --> 01:10:03,379
And he's the biggest one that has the most, you know, market share in terms of treasury companies.

894
01:10:03,379 --> 01:10:08,259
Maybe some small ones will still fall over if we drop a little lower because of bad like risk management.

895
01:10:08,259 --> 01:10:10,159
but I think

896
01:10:10,159 --> 01:10:12,418
this phase will pass and I actually

897
01:10:12,418 --> 01:10:13,939
expect it to be less severe than the

898
01:10:13,939 --> 01:10:16,458
22 bear market but time wise

899
01:10:16,458 --> 01:10:18,498
I do think we can get like choppy

900
01:10:18,498 --> 01:10:19,898
price action so we could stay

901
01:10:19,898 --> 01:10:22,299
perhaps in 3 months we'll talk and we're still

902
01:10:22,299 --> 01:10:24,079
at the same price that we are today

903
01:10:24,079 --> 01:10:26,359
in a way that would be good

904
01:10:26,359 --> 01:10:28,199
that would be like

905
01:10:28,199 --> 01:10:30,239
this continuation of the

906
01:10:30,239 --> 01:10:32,159
4 year cycle and then maybe have like

907
01:10:32,159 --> 01:10:33,679
one more draw down slightly

908
01:10:33,679 --> 01:10:36,119
but yeah

909
01:10:36,119 --> 01:10:42,498
I see it also as a tremendous opportunity for someone like some of the people I talk to are actually waiting.

910
01:10:42,719 --> 01:10:45,039
Like they are understanding this concept as well.

911
01:10:45,159 --> 01:10:48,119
And they're waiting to become full coiners.

912
01:10:48,279 --> 01:10:50,358
And so that is really cool to see.

913
01:10:50,898 --> 01:10:54,979
And so I think this also allows for a tremendous opportunity.

914
01:10:56,119 --> 01:10:59,099
What I'm hearing is 58K is a magnet.

915
01:10:59,498 --> 01:11:01,939
That's just, you know, the prophecy will be fulfilled.

916
01:11:02,458 --> 01:11:04,059
58K gang will celebrate.

917
01:11:04,059 --> 01:11:06,219
and then we can, once we've had that,

918
01:11:06,319 --> 01:11:07,319
then we can go parabolic.

919
01:11:07,479 --> 01:11:08,418
I'm putting words in your mouth,

920
01:11:08,498 --> 01:11:10,958
but this is just what I'm intuiting out of this.

921
01:11:11,958 --> 01:11:14,418
Yeah, I think it's a likely outcome,

922
01:11:14,739 --> 01:11:17,599
but I mean, it's all probabilities.

923
01:11:18,019 --> 01:11:20,599
And so I cannot say this is what Bitcoin is going to do.

924
01:11:20,599 --> 01:11:22,358
Bitcoin actually tends to do the opposite

925
01:11:22,358 --> 01:11:24,319
of what most people think.

926
01:11:25,579 --> 01:11:29,379
But yeah, looking at history and looking at the data

927
01:11:29,379 --> 01:11:31,599
and actually looking at the current on-chain data,

928
01:11:31,599 --> 01:11:35,299
because Onshin Data is not perfect in predicting what Bitcoin is going to do,

929
01:11:35,379 --> 01:11:39,739
but it's fairly good at estimating in what kind of position are we currently

930
01:11:39,739 --> 01:11:41,479
compared to previous cycles.

931
01:11:42,119 --> 01:11:47,179
And actually, it shows we're very much in line with previous cycles.

932
01:11:47,379 --> 01:11:50,479
And so as much as I want to say 4-year cycle is dead,

933
01:11:51,179 --> 01:11:54,219
the 4-year cycle is not dead, not at this point.

934
01:11:54,979 --> 01:11:57,179
We're exactly in the same pattern.

935
01:11:57,639 --> 01:11:59,858
Yet, did we not have a parabolic move up?

936
01:11:59,858 --> 01:12:01,259
Yes, that was a difference.

937
01:12:01,599 --> 01:12:04,819
But yeah, there's actually good reasons for that.

938
01:12:05,139 --> 01:12:06,879
I tried to explain them this time.

939
01:12:06,979 --> 01:12:08,799
You know, it's gradual institutional adoption,

940
01:12:08,939 --> 01:12:12,219
a bit of suppression because of a lot of OTC purchases

941
01:12:12,219 --> 01:12:13,059
instead of spot.

942
01:12:13,379 --> 01:12:15,599
And so we have like a much more distributed top,

943
01:12:15,679 --> 01:12:17,418
which we already saw a bit in 2021.

944
01:12:17,619 --> 01:12:19,799
And we saw it even more so in this cycle.

945
01:12:21,039 --> 01:12:23,079
So there doesn't have to be,

946
01:12:23,159 --> 01:12:24,679
there's no rule that there has to be,

947
01:12:24,799 --> 01:12:27,199
that the cycle has to end with a parabolic top.

948
01:12:27,539 --> 01:12:30,159
You know, that is something unsustainable to begin with.

949
01:12:30,159 --> 01:12:34,998
And this time there was less hype in the market than previous cycles.

950
01:12:35,119 --> 01:12:38,019
And so we had a bit more distributed price action.

951
01:12:39,119 --> 01:12:39,639
Right.

952
01:12:40,099 --> 01:12:44,479
Let me ask you too, are there any charts that you have here that we have not gone over yet?

953
01:12:45,918 --> 01:12:48,699
There are a couple, but they're not like of major importance.

954
01:12:48,879 --> 01:12:54,019
This is maybe the last interesting one to talk like about the near term.

955
01:12:54,519 --> 01:12:56,519
So this is the supply distribution.

956
01:12:56,519 --> 01:13:05,239
so it actually puts basically from zero to all them high where like the 21 million coins at which

957
01:13:05,239 --> 01:13:11,179
price levels are they all sitting you know like so where have they been all purchased and and so

958
01:13:11,179 --> 01:13:16,939
we actually see like very interesting here this is the november 2022 bottom like the 16k it's still

959
01:13:16,939 --> 01:13:22,659
like fairly high bar like that and that stems all the way from 2022 so you see how this was like

960
01:13:22,659 --> 01:13:28,119
really a capitulation bar now in february we had the crash we had a bar which is not as high as

961
01:13:28,119 --> 01:13:34,739
as the the 2022 bottom and that's like this one is much more recent right like so so usually when

962
01:13:34,739 --> 01:13:41,219
a bar is recent there's still like a significant um chance that it will move lower over time

963
01:13:41,219 --> 01:13:48,079
because you know bitcoin gets sold that was like you know purchased it at this price level

964
01:13:48,079 --> 01:13:54,898
and so so that also again is like one of those reasons why i think oh this looks more like a

965
01:13:54,898 --> 01:14:01,099
june bottom than like a real bear market bottom yet um like currently we're sitting right in this

966
01:14:01,099 --> 01:14:07,799
gap you know so we have the the 67k price level 85k level and so i we're sitting in this gap where

967
01:14:07,799 --> 01:14:12,458
like there's very little supply sitting here so this is also a bit of like resistance moving into

968
01:14:12,458 --> 01:14:18,139
this zone because there's like supply that might be sold uh and and here there's a bit of support

969
01:14:18,139 --> 01:14:22,939
you know there's already supply bought at this and so so it's very likely in the near term to

970
01:14:22,939 --> 01:14:28,079
like kind of stay within this range um i mean bitcoin can of course do whatever one it might

971
01:14:28,079 --> 01:14:34,039
move like suddenly like much higher whatever like depends on on many events but i'm talking about

972
01:14:34,039 --> 01:14:38,939
probabilities like a likely outcome in my opinion is to get like sideways chop within the 70 80k

973
01:14:38,939 --> 01:14:46,079
range for the near term we see that by this uh on-chain distribution okay now it's a it's an

974
01:14:46,079 --> 01:14:49,918
interesting chart was there was there another one you wanted to put up too uh i just want to make

975
01:14:49,918 --> 01:14:55,119
sure we we get through uh through all the charts yeah we covered we covered most of it actually

976
01:14:55,119 --> 01:15:01,559
uh there's there's still one on profit levels uh so this is maybe the last one that we haven't

977
01:15:01,559 --> 01:15:09,418
really shared which is um uh this is a profit like short-term holder profit um and and we see now

978
01:15:09,418 --> 01:15:15,279
that we're like the profit levels are very near zero which is uh which typically indicates this

979
01:15:15,279 --> 01:15:21,839
bear market phase you know like these so these red bars represent the bear market basically and

980
01:15:21,839 --> 01:15:26,839
so what we see is that in previous bear markets we still have we had actually quite a lot of

981
01:15:26,839 --> 01:15:33,059
red bars like before we had that real bottom formation so and currently we're like in short

982
01:15:33,059 --> 01:15:38,539
so it so as i said like it could be 2019 like okay maybe this time is different you know like

983
01:15:38,539 --> 01:15:43,918
we could move out of the fast but my assumption like the main probability is that that yeah it

984
01:15:43,918 --> 01:15:48,079
will still take some time and that we you know we need the time to make to form this bottom and that

985
01:15:48,079 --> 01:15:53,659
profit levels will stay low for uh the near term and for the next couple of months so i expect these

986
01:15:53,659 --> 01:15:59,439
red bars actually to continue and and be more similar to previous bear markets uh rather than

987
01:15:59,439 --> 01:16:05,539
like the 2019 situation basically because like why because hype is a bit gone in the market like

988
01:16:05,539 --> 01:16:10,239
it's it's it within it's with ai it's with gold it's not with bitcoin uh now there's the bitcoin

989
01:16:10,239 --> 01:16:16,099
is that are with bitcoin but um but yeah those will make sure that the bottom gets formed eventually

990
01:16:16,099 --> 01:16:22,639
uh before we start moving into like a new bull i don't know if you have any other questions about

991
01:16:22,639 --> 01:16:29,439
this chart let me know it's it's it's fascinating stuff i mean you know i remain extremely bullish

992
01:16:29,439 --> 01:16:33,599
and i guess the reason that i remain extremely bullish like even though you're telling me like

993
01:16:33,599 --> 01:16:36,418
look we could probably go and maybe we could go into the 40s maybe we're probably gonna go into

994
01:16:36,418 --> 01:16:41,019
the 50s maybe we're gonna crab around for a while i just wasn't expecting and this is like an

995
01:16:41,019 --> 01:16:47,219
expectation setting thing i wasn't expecting to be able to buy bitcoin under 100k for such another

996
01:16:47,219 --> 01:16:52,339
extended period of time like that was me being too bullish on the front end of that right but

997
01:16:52,339 --> 01:17:00,779
I think there's many people in your situation, especially from like people from like our white one cycle in, they feel that they don't have enough Bitcoin yet.

998
01:17:00,958 --> 01:17:03,759
I think there's tremendous opportunity for them to get more Bitcoin.

999
01:17:03,979 --> 01:17:04,139
Yeah.

1000
01:17:04,139 --> 01:17:10,918
So I also think it's like really an opportunity that should like, you know, take advantage of this situation, guys.

1001
01:17:11,039 --> 01:17:13,239
Like if you're in that situation, you don't have enough Bitcoin.

1002
01:17:13,358 --> 01:17:14,879
And actually no one has enough Bitcoin.

1003
01:17:14,879 --> 01:17:22,539
but if i think of like i mean i have i have some og friends like even from 2013 2011 era you know

1004
01:17:22,539 --> 01:17:27,358
they're sitting on a lot of bitcoin and and so of course you know they're not really necessarily

1005
01:17:27,358 --> 01:17:32,439
looking to add more like you know they they're they're fine you know and and they actually are

1006
01:17:32,439 --> 01:17:36,739
the ones causing some of this distribution because they made the right bet you know and and i think

1007
01:17:36,739 --> 01:17:42,358
that's natural i mean we have this adoption but but there's nothing wrong with bitcoin bitcoin is

1008
01:17:42,358 --> 01:17:44,099
doing exactly what it is supposed to do.

1009
01:17:44,179 --> 01:17:48,299
We're following even this parallel model of adoption,

1010
01:17:48,519 --> 01:17:51,199
which I think is this natural phenomenon.

1011
01:17:51,479 --> 01:17:53,918
I think that's very realistic to continue that.

1012
01:17:55,539 --> 01:17:57,639
And Bitcoin has all the fundamentals there.

1013
01:17:57,898 --> 01:17:58,958
It keeps on improving.

1014
01:17:59,339 --> 01:18:02,858
Yes, there is some quantum resistance fear, as I said,

1015
01:18:03,398 --> 01:18:04,799
that needs to be taken care of.

1016
01:18:04,799 --> 01:18:06,579
But there's already people working on that.

1017
01:18:06,719 --> 01:18:11,358
We have Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 working on exactly that

1018
01:18:11,358 --> 01:18:12,559
to protect our coins.

1019
01:18:13,099 --> 01:18:16,059
Now, I'm not saying some of the quantum stuff

1020
01:18:16,059 --> 01:18:17,998
could definitely still cause another bear market

1021
01:18:17,998 --> 01:18:21,599
because it means like a decentralized consensus

1022
01:18:21,599 --> 01:18:25,759
to get consensus for having another improvement to Bitcoin,

1023
01:18:26,379 --> 01:18:29,759
which historically was never an easy thing to do.

1024
01:18:30,319 --> 01:18:33,039
But I do think we get it figured out

1025
01:18:33,039 --> 01:18:35,819
if the fear becomes too high, the stakes become too high.

1026
01:18:35,939 --> 01:18:38,358
And so people need to move

1027
01:18:38,358 --> 01:18:40,418
and we'll need to go through with some update

1028
01:18:40,418 --> 01:18:41,759
at some point.

1029
01:18:42,079 --> 01:18:44,799
And so I'm not afraid that that will not happen.

1030
01:18:46,319 --> 01:18:51,219
But yeah, Bitcoin for me represents so much opportunity.

1031
01:18:51,418 --> 01:18:53,619
As I said, like for me, it's more important than AI.

1032
01:18:53,779 --> 01:18:55,259
And I'm working with AI.

1033
01:18:55,479 --> 01:18:57,799
I'm actually using Kodak, Klaude.

1034
01:18:57,918 --> 01:18:59,719
I'm trying out these things and I see the,

1035
01:18:59,918 --> 01:19:02,279
like it's going to have so much impact on society.

1036
01:19:02,279 --> 01:19:04,839
It's, you know, we're still at the,

1037
01:19:05,019 --> 01:19:07,199
like only at the beginning of the impact

1038
01:19:07,199 --> 01:19:08,279
that AI is going to have.

1039
01:19:08,279 --> 01:19:11,458
and AI will also

1040
01:19:11,458 --> 01:19:13,339
provide tremendous opportunity

1041
01:19:13,339 --> 01:19:15,619
but it will also provide our government

1042
01:19:15,619 --> 01:19:17,559
with tremendous amount of money printing

1043
01:19:17,559 --> 01:19:18,939
or getting away with it again

1044
01:19:18,939 --> 01:19:21,519
and our lives will not really

1045
01:19:21,519 --> 01:19:22,779
get significantly improved

1046
01:19:22,779 --> 01:19:25,679
because the living standard will just increase

1047
01:19:25,679 --> 01:19:27,619
yes we'll have

1048
01:19:27,619 --> 01:19:28,599
a robot in our house

1049
01:19:28,599 --> 01:19:31,739
but we still cannot afford to go to the supermarket

1050
01:19:31,739 --> 01:19:33,039
and so yeah

1051
01:19:33,039 --> 01:19:34,898
that will continue

1052
01:19:34,898 --> 01:19:37,599
and that is what AI actually represents in a way

1053
01:19:37,599 --> 01:19:40,579
And so I'm so happy that there is Bitcoin as a solution.

1054
01:19:41,039 --> 01:19:47,219
And I think the whole millennial generation will, well, there's enough of us within Bitcoin.

1055
01:19:47,358 --> 01:19:50,619
We've convinced the institutions they're actually, they're not going away.

1056
01:19:51,019 --> 01:19:55,019
We actually have evidence that they're only increasing their positions.

1057
01:19:55,979 --> 01:19:58,599
Regulation is getting better in the US especially.

1058
01:19:59,299 --> 01:20:00,599
Was it bought? Yes.

1059
01:20:00,839 --> 01:20:02,939
You know, but it doesn't matter.

1060
01:20:03,318 --> 01:20:06,119
You know, it's going to get there and it's going to get adopted.

1061
01:20:06,119 --> 01:20:08,099
and we will continue

1062
01:20:08,099 --> 01:20:11,179
and Bitcoin will continue to infiltrate the fiat system

1063
01:20:11,179 --> 01:20:13,519
till it's big enough to really take over.

1064
01:20:14,818 --> 01:20:16,599
And I say amen to that.

1065
01:20:16,679 --> 01:20:18,879
I think that's a perfect note to wrap up on too.

1066
01:20:19,619 --> 01:20:21,639
Where can people go to find you,

1067
01:20:21,739 --> 01:20:22,699
to check out your newsletter,

1068
01:20:22,958 --> 01:20:24,419
anywhere else you want to send people?

1069
01:20:25,139 --> 01:20:26,139
Yeah, so I'm on Noster

1070
01:20:26,139 --> 01:20:28,919
and I'm on Twitter as at the rational route.

1071
01:20:28,919 --> 01:20:34,099
And then I have the Bitcoin strategy platform.com

1072
01:20:34,099 --> 01:20:38,339
and BitcoinStrategy.Substack.com

1073
01:20:38,339 --> 01:20:39,299
where I have my newsletter.

1074
01:20:39,919 --> 01:20:41,079
So if you subscribe,

1075
01:20:41,318 --> 01:20:43,019
you get like access to these charts.

1076
01:20:43,099 --> 01:20:43,659
To my insight,

1077
01:20:43,759 --> 01:20:45,398
I actually send out a weekly newsletter

1078
01:20:45,398 --> 01:20:46,458
with these updates

1079
01:20:46,458 --> 01:20:48,919
and paid subscriber

1080
01:20:48,919 --> 01:20:50,799
get actually access to all the live charts

1081
01:20:50,799 --> 01:20:51,818
and to extra information,

1082
01:20:51,998 --> 01:20:53,858
you know, to keep them prepared

1083
01:20:53,858 --> 01:20:55,599
for what's coming and feel comfortable.

1084
01:20:56,919 --> 01:20:57,719
I love it.

1085
01:20:57,739 --> 01:21:00,139
Well, I appreciate you breaking all this stuff down.

1086
01:21:00,619 --> 01:21:02,039
For us today, this was fascinating.

1087
01:21:02,659 --> 01:21:05,539
I think even though you say we may be going lower,

1088
01:21:05,659 --> 01:21:08,159
I think I'm still more bullish after this conversation.

1089
01:21:08,519 --> 01:21:11,079
So I don't know, mission accomplished somehow there.

1090
01:21:11,318 --> 01:21:12,559
I remain bullish.

1091
01:21:12,679 --> 01:21:15,179
I'm going to keep stacking as hard as I possibly can.

1092
01:21:15,719 --> 01:21:17,379
I encourage my fellow plebs to do the same.

1093
01:21:17,498 --> 01:21:20,079
But yeah, anything else you want to leave folks with before we close out?

1094
01:21:20,739 --> 01:21:22,599
No, thank you so much for having me, Walker.

1095
01:21:22,998 --> 01:21:24,199
And keep doing what you're doing.

1096
01:21:24,299 --> 01:21:26,458
Keep spreading the good information on Bitcoin.

1097
01:21:26,458 --> 01:21:32,299
and it's in our hands to make the world a better place

1098
01:21:32,299 --> 01:21:36,939
and to do whatever we can to have Bitcoin prosper also.

1099
01:21:38,318 --> 01:21:39,159
Amen to that.

1100
01:21:39,339 --> 01:21:41,619
And thank you to everybody who joined on the live stream on Noster.

1101
01:21:41,818 --> 01:21:43,519
This show live streams only on Noster,

1102
01:21:43,639 --> 01:21:44,639
so if you want to see it live,

1103
01:21:45,119 --> 01:21:46,719
go check out Noster if you haven't already.

1104
01:21:47,639 --> 01:21:49,699
Rational Root, Root, thank you so much for joining.

1105
01:21:49,779 --> 01:21:50,659
This was a pleasure, man.

1106
01:21:50,739 --> 01:21:51,958
Glad we got the chance to do this.

1107
01:21:52,159 --> 01:21:54,279
And yeah, again, I remain bullish.

1108
01:21:56,458 --> 01:22:06,119
And that's a wrap on this Bitcoin Talk episode of The Bitcoin Podcast.

1109
01:22:06,779 --> 01:22:10,739
Remember to subscribe to this podcast wherever you're watching or listening,

1110
01:22:10,739 --> 01:22:15,159
and share it with your friends, family, and strangers on the internet.

1111
01:22:15,439 --> 01:22:21,739
Find me on Noster at primal.net slash walker and this podcast at primal.net slash titcoin.

1112
01:22:21,739 --> 01:22:30,139
On X, YouTube, and Rumble, just search at Walker America and find this podcast on X and Instagram at Titcoin Podcast.

1113
01:22:30,858 --> 01:22:33,119
Head to the show notes to grab sponsor links.

1114
01:22:33,239 --> 01:22:37,939
Head to substack.com slash at Walker America to get episodes emailed to you.

1115
01:22:38,299 --> 01:22:41,719
And head to Bitcoin Podcast dot net for everything else.

1116
01:22:42,259 --> 01:22:45,839
Bitcoin is scarce, but podcasts are abundant.

1117
01:22:45,839 --> 01:22:51,458
So thank you for spending your scarce time listening to the Bitcoin podcast.

1118
01:22:51,739 --> 01:22:54,519
Until next time, stay free.