1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,720 It is a bad idea. It is a bad proposal. It is a bad BIP and it is a horrible precedent. 2 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:11,020 If you distill their whole argument, it's people are adopting Bitcoin and fees are too high 3 00:00:11,020 --> 00:00:17,060 and babies are dying. It's not something that you want to happen easily in a trillion dollar network 4 00:00:17,060 --> 00:00:21,260 on its way to 10 trillion dollars. Nobody will take Bitcoin seriously. We'll see. I don't think 5 00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,680 there's another chance. If this fails, no one's going to take this seriously again. This thing is 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:32,320 not designed to fail gracefully. It's designed to be the grenade on the floor and force people to 7 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:37,880 move to another room. Do you think that there is a risk of this soft fork becoming a hard fork? 8 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:44,400 I would say the likely outcome is that they will... We're going to go up with god candles and omega 9 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:49,300 candles and people will be caught off guard. This bear market feels artificial and everything, 10 00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:54,960 precious metals, tech stocks, oil, you name it, they've all had a run and we haven't. So I think 11 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:56,400 we're overdue for that run. 12 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,140 Samson, Samson Moe, 13 00:01:07,180 --> 00:01:09,200 can we put this to rest also? 14 00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:10,540 How is your last name pronounced? 15 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:12,080 It doesn't matter. 16 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:13,680 I rose by any other name. 17 00:01:13,740 --> 00:01:14,480 It's just a sweet. 18 00:01:16,060 --> 00:01:17,940 The memes, the memes 19 00:01:17,940 --> 00:01:20,740 from CoinJoin Chris and many others, 20 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:21,580 but he's been, I think, 21 00:01:21,700 --> 00:01:23,980 probably the memetic hero 22 00:01:23,980 --> 00:01:25,340 of this cycle. 23 00:01:25,460 --> 00:01:26,100 He's really been putting 24 00:01:26,100 --> 00:01:26,800 everyone else to shame. 25 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:27,540 The memes have been 26 00:01:27,540 --> 00:01:28,800 quite incredible 27 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:29,800 and quite numerous, 28 00:01:30,020 --> 00:01:30,560 I've got to say. 29 00:01:30,660 --> 00:01:31,780 I got a chuckle out of many. 30 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,980 Yeah, he's quite prolific this year. 31 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:36,140 I don't think he'll ever 32 00:01:36,140 --> 00:01:36,960 hit his peak again, 33 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,680 which was the liquid 34 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,960 and the swaps button 35 00:01:40,960 --> 00:01:42,240 baby pushing one. 36 00:01:42,700 --> 00:01:43,180 But, you know, 37 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,820 he's got to try to top it. 38 00:01:45,580 --> 00:01:46,860 Yeah, it's, you know, 39 00:01:47,220 --> 00:01:48,840 he creates a tough act 40 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,020 to follow for himself, 41 00:01:50,020 --> 00:01:50,560 I think. 42 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:51,680 That's the biggest problem. 43 00:01:52,300 --> 00:01:53,560 But Samson... 44 00:01:53,980 --> 00:01:55,220 Great to have you back on the show. 45 00:01:55,660 --> 00:01:57,040 Always enjoy talking to you. 46 00:01:57,380 --> 00:02:01,460 Now is, I think, a pretty perfect time for us to chat again. 47 00:02:01,460 --> 00:02:07,340 So excited to pick your brain a little bit because there is a lot of, I don't want to, 48 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,520 let's see, drama, for lack of a better word. 49 00:02:10,620 --> 00:02:15,000 There's a lot of emotion right now around BIP-110. 50 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,500 We're not just going to talk about BIP-110 also for people that are tired of hearing 51 00:02:18,500 --> 00:02:20,480 it and are about to skip through this. 52 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:25,120 uh we are going to talk about all the other things that you are doing with jan 3 with aqua 53 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,920 also just kind of want to get your take on the overall macro outlook as it relates to bitcoin 54 00:02:29,920 --> 00:02:34,320 where you see things going a couple other things as well if we have the time but i do want to start 55 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:41,200 out with bip 110 because it has taken so much uh air out of the room let's say i think there's a lot 56 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:45,520 of misconceptions there's a lot of uh strong language being thrown around there's a lot of 57 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:50,340 lot of strong emotions and that's understandable we're talking about bitcoin people have their life 58 00:02:50,340 --> 00:02:56,700 savings in bitcoin i care about it a heck of a lot i know you do as well uh let's just start out 59 00:02:56,700 --> 00:03:03,880 with maybe you are somebody who has been for those who aren't aware uh you were supportive of the 60 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:09,480 knots movement when that was the only thing on the table uh you were critical of core while also 61 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:16,580 being reasonable with your criticisms in terms of not just calling all of them pedos or something 62 00:03:16,580 --> 00:03:23,320 like that. You had actual criticisms. And you've also been in Bitcoin for a long time. You've seen 63 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:28,040 multiple cycles play out. You were there for the block size wars. You've seen this movie before, 64 00:03:28,140 --> 00:03:36,240 so to speak. What do you think is sort of the biggest disconnect right now causing this seemingly 65 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:41,300 pretty intense schism amidst the Bitcoin community. 66 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:43,740 Where is the fundamental piece 67 00:03:43,740 --> 00:03:47,620 where people are not seeing eye to eye, in your opinion? 68 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,960 Well, the biggest thing is a lack of nuance. 69 00:03:52,180 --> 00:03:54,400 So I posted something yesterday about that 70 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,740 because I've been accused of flipping sides. 71 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,080 But I believe X is not a good platform 72 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,740 for serious discussion. 73 00:04:02,740 --> 00:04:10,020 It's more of a outlet for anger, frustration, and just blasting your opinions out. 74 00:04:10,420 --> 00:04:12,600 And there's no real follow through. 75 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,580 It's really hard to follow through because everything is buried in a thread somewhere. 76 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:25,480 And nobody sees that because the algo promotes the less nuanced view, the more anger promoting view. 77 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:31,680 So, yeah, I think the issue is there's a lot of little nuance here. 78 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:37,820 and possibly a lack of understanding about how Bitcoin works from the 110 supporter group. 79 00:04:38,340 --> 00:04:43,800 And I believe even the core side has made a lot of missteps too 80 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,480 in how they've communicated things or framed things. 81 00:04:47,940 --> 00:04:50,240 And again, that goes back to the lack of nuance. 82 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:58,720 So if you look at a developer, they are not marketing product PR comms people. 83 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:04,660 they are developers deep in the code and if you compare that to say using an AI 84 00:05:04,660 --> 00:05:20,983 they have this million line context window about the code and not so much about how people perceive what they say or the nuance behind the things they say so they can say something like well if you go back to the origin of the 85 00:05:20,983 --> 00:05:28,603 the schism it was about Opratern and Citraea and I think that was the kind of spark that lit the fire 86 00:05:28,603 --> 00:05:34,663 but they were saying some things like you know Citraea needs this Steve from Spiral said that 87 00:05:34,663 --> 00:05:42,703 on a pod and then um just the way that uh anton points out and matt corallo and peter todd were 88 00:05:42,703 --> 00:05:47,963 saying they kind of implied that this had to be done because the network was now functioning in a 89 00:05:47,963 --> 00:05:56,783 certain way and it was um causing problems with uh you know relay policy and mempool coherence 90 00:05:56,783 --> 00:06:02,163 and that it was leading companies like Citra to do certain things. 91 00:06:02,703 --> 00:06:06,743 But I think that is kind of a surface level take 92 00:06:06,743 --> 00:06:09,203 and without understanding the nuance behind it, 93 00:06:09,423 --> 00:06:12,183 which is that policy is not consensus 94 00:06:12,183 --> 00:06:18,023 and that nothing they do will really impact the core consensus rules of Bitcoin. 95 00:06:19,143 --> 00:06:22,843 And like a bunch of other nuance about Operatorn 96 00:06:22,843 --> 00:06:25,923 and how Citra uses it or didn't need to use it, 97 00:06:25,923 --> 00:06:33,103 That just kind of kicked everything off because it made people feel very angry that a change was being forced on them. 98 00:06:33,503 --> 00:06:45,023 So even though Operatorn is a policy and it's a default setting, it felt like they were being coerced because Core was saying we are changing this and people are saying don't change it. 99 00:06:45,543 --> 00:06:48,543 But the fact is changing it doesn't mean anything. 100 00:06:48,543 --> 00:06:55,343 And I criticize Core and Core devs for doing this because it didn't really change anything, right? 101 00:06:55,343 --> 00:07:02,203 Like anybody can change their defaults in their core client or in their nots client or any other fork of Bitcoin. 102 00:07:02,943 --> 00:07:06,463 And again, there's even more nuance to this too, which is core is not Bitcoin. 103 00:07:06,703 --> 00:07:11,863 So, you know, people don't really understand that it is open source software. 104 00:07:11,983 --> 00:07:12,863 You can create a fork. 105 00:07:13,423 --> 00:07:18,903 And as long as you're in consensus, you can change any policy or setting on your own node. 106 00:07:19,903 --> 00:07:22,123 And even the miners can do that too. 107 00:07:22,123 --> 00:07:35,663 So if you wanted to enforce some rule set on miners, you could have them enforce the policy, but you're going to have to engage them and talk to them and say, hey, we want op return at 83 and not a byte more. 108 00:07:36,503 --> 00:07:41,983 Make sure you do this. It's really important. And here's the reasons and rationale and data behind it. 109 00:07:41,983 --> 00:07:51,323 but the way that bit 110 has been thrust upon the network is it's an arbitrary change like 110 00:07:51,323 --> 00:07:57,383 seven eight changes eight consensus rule changes thrust upon the network by a very small group of 111 00:07:57,383 --> 00:08:03,883 people and i mean no insult when i say small group of people it's not that there aren't hundreds of 112 00:08:03,883 --> 00:08:09,583 people that support it there are but there are millions and millions and millions maybe hundreds 113 00:08:09,583 --> 00:08:17,423 of millions of people using Bitcoin that far outweigh the demands that this group of people 114 00:08:17,423 --> 00:08:26,483 has. So you can, I think the goal is to bypass the normal consensus building process and set 115 00:08:26,483 --> 00:08:33,183 this ultimatum for miners that we're going to make this change, quote unquote, putting things 116 00:08:33,183 --> 00:08:39,623 back the way they were but end quote but not really because now it's consensus and it is 117 00:08:39,623 --> 00:08:46,723 enforced at the consensus level not a policy change so you're kind of using the a noble goal 118 00:08:46,723 --> 00:08:54,383 of fighting spam to enforce and impose the change on the network on miners with an arbitrary date 119 00:08:54,383 --> 00:09:00,103 i think that is where the line has to be drawn that that is not a viable path forward it sets a 120 00:09:00,103 --> 00:09:07,763 horrible precedent and it it sets a path where anybody could change the network anybody with a 121 00:09:07,763 --> 00:09:14,983 one percent of hash rate a few thousand nodes and again the 110 supporters will get angry if i 122 00:09:14,983 --> 00:09:19,983 misquote the number but let's just say a few thousand several thousand nodes which is not 123 00:09:19,983 --> 00:09:26,223 expensive to do and i'm not saying it's a sybil attack but nodes are not an indicator of anything 124 00:09:26,223 --> 00:09:44,423 Anybody can set a node, you can false flag, you can signal for something you're not going to enforce. It's not an adequate way to gauge any sentiment or intent of the network. And then you can get a group of people together and complain on a social media platform that we need this change. 125 00:09:44,423 --> 00:09:55,963 So that opens the door for, I don't know, drive chains to do the same thing, to add an op code that they need to enable drive chains. 126 00:09:56,123 --> 00:10:00,683 Or it could be a way for covenants proponents to implement covenants. 127 00:10:00,683 --> 00:10:03,943 or it could be on the other end of it, 128 00:10:04,223 --> 00:10:05,403 a more malicious way is 129 00:10:05,403 --> 00:10:07,543 you can have a very big mining pool, 130 00:10:08,243 --> 00:10:12,363 implement a soft fork that tightens the rules 131 00:10:12,363 --> 00:10:17,163 and reduces the block reward for some good reason. 132 00:10:17,263 --> 00:10:17,863 I don't know what, 133 00:10:18,043 --> 00:10:19,823 but I'm sure people can twist themselves up 134 00:10:19,823 --> 00:10:30,606 in a knot to think of some reason and rationalize it But that would be a way for them to bleed out competitors and gain an advantage So it sets this really nasty precedent 135 00:10:30,606 --> 00:10:35,266 and it lowers the bar for change on the network massively. 136 00:10:35,786 --> 00:10:38,586 So I think it is a bad idea. 137 00:10:38,886 --> 00:10:39,946 It is a bad proposal. 138 00:10:40,326 --> 00:10:43,386 It is a bad BIP and it is a horrible precedent. 139 00:10:43,966 --> 00:10:46,906 So that's my overarching take on it, 140 00:10:46,906 --> 00:10:50,806 trying to add as much nuance as possible in a few minutes time. 141 00:10:52,026 --> 00:10:53,886 And I'm sure no matter how much nuance you add, 142 00:10:54,106 --> 00:10:59,086 you will always have people who don't like what you have to say. 143 00:10:59,186 --> 00:11:00,766 So we're going to do our best here. 144 00:11:00,766 --> 00:11:04,286 And I'm sure I was already accused, Samson, by having you on, 145 00:11:04,366 --> 00:11:05,186 that I had somebody say, 146 00:11:05,546 --> 00:11:08,486 why don't you have somebody on who actually cares about using Bitcoin as money? 147 00:11:09,366 --> 00:11:11,306 And if you're saying that kind of stuff, 148 00:11:11,806 --> 00:11:15,366 it's just demonstrably false, 149 00:11:15,366 --> 00:11:20,046 uh you know given like you can just look at the work that you do uh even today not to mention the 150 00:11:20,046 --> 00:11:23,346 work that you have done and i think that you mentioned a couple of points there that are 151 00:11:23,346 --> 00:11:31,026 really important one is the confusion around policy versus consensus and i'm not trying to 152 00:11:31,026 --> 00:11:36,526 talk down to anyone here i'm just saying there clearly is some confusion this operaturn change 153 00:11:36,526 --> 00:11:42,946 however you feel about it was a policy change correct me if i'm wrong but even before any of 154 00:11:42,946 --> 00:11:49,826 this bit 110 stuff the uh the consensus level protocol level op return was uncapped is that 155 00:11:49,826 --> 00:11:55,446 correct correct and so this is the confusing part about the messaging around bit 110 is when i hear 156 00:11:55,446 --> 00:11:59,966 we're taking things back to how they were it's like well you're actually changing things because 157 00:11:59,966 --> 00:12:06,206 the protocol was uncapped the you can say the relay policy was in fact changed by bitcoin core 158 00:12:06,206 --> 00:12:12,606 however as you also mentioned it remains a configurable setting also correct right 159 00:12:12,606 --> 00:12:18,466 even today they haven't taken away your ability to configure it i i don't know if that was on maybe 160 00:12:18,466 --> 00:12:23,206 that was on the table at one point but they you know either way it's configurable now right so 161 00:12:23,206 --> 00:12:30,626 like that is the other thing so is that part of it here is it is it just and i again i want to be 162 00:12:30,626 --> 00:12:34,746 really i know that the bit 110 folks out there who feel really passionately about this and if 163 00:12:34,746 --> 00:12:39,146 you're listening to this try to listen with an open mind because i promise you that both samson 164 00:12:39,146 --> 00:12:44,046 and myself really care about Bitcoin. Samson's been working on Bitcoin for a lot longer than I 165 00:12:44,046 --> 00:12:49,186 have, doing much more real stuff than I do as a podcaster. But I promise you, I care about Bitcoin 166 00:12:49,186 --> 00:12:55,126 a lot, too. I don't want to see Bitcoin fail. As much as people would like to say, I'm not captured. 167 00:12:55,626 --> 00:12:59,926 Apparently, there's big pools of money floating around that just pay influencers. I wish I knew 168 00:12:59,926 --> 00:13:05,986 where they were. That'd be great. But I haven't seemed to find them. But the other piece here, 169 00:13:05,986 --> 00:13:07,186 I think is that, 170 00:13:07,186 --> 00:13:07,626 uh, 171 00:13:07,766 --> 00:13:10,566 there's a lot of comparisons made with the block size wars. 172 00:13:10,946 --> 00:13:12,286 And there's a lot of people saying that, 173 00:13:12,306 --> 00:13:12,486 you know, 174 00:13:12,486 --> 00:13:12,706 the, 175 00:13:12,846 --> 00:13:14,126 on the bit one 10 side, 176 00:13:14,246 --> 00:13:16,226 everyone seems to be saying that the, 177 00:13:16,226 --> 00:13:19,186 the core tard spammer or spam apologists, 178 00:13:19,186 --> 00:13:19,666 uh, 179 00:13:19,686 --> 00:13:19,966 you know, 180 00:13:20,046 --> 00:13:22,866 spam apologist pedos are the big blockers, 181 00:13:22,906 --> 00:13:23,646 the big Bitcoin, 182 00:13:23,786 --> 00:13:24,486 big blockers. 183 00:13:25,046 --> 00:13:26,546 And the bit one tenors are, 184 00:13:26,646 --> 00:13:26,786 you know, 185 00:13:26,786 --> 00:13:27,026 the, 186 00:13:27,086 --> 00:13:27,266 uh, 187 00:13:27,266 --> 00:13:28,846 the noble and virtuous plebs, 188 00:13:28,846 --> 00:13:29,726 uh, 189 00:13:29,766 --> 00:13:29,986 who, 190 00:13:30,106 --> 00:13:30,546 you know, 191 00:13:30,546 --> 00:13:33,866 can do no wrong in this sense and are justified in their vitriol. 192 00:13:33,866 --> 00:13:40,546 can you draw any comparisons to the block size wars as somebody who was actually there when it 193 00:13:40,546 --> 00:13:47,586 when it all went down uh made some hats i believe as well uh famously uh what are people missing 194 00:13:47,586 --> 00:13:53,046 when they draw these comparisons in terms of what was the actual reality then and the actual reality 195 00:13:53,046 --> 00:13:59,226 now yeah before we get into the block size war comparison i think we should just step back and 196 00:13:59,226 --> 00:14:05,806 go over some of the things you talked about. So, you know, there is this framing of the whole 197 00:14:05,806 --> 00:14:12,166 thing like we need to make Bitcoin money, but we need to make Bitcoin money is more of a rallying 198 00:14:12,166 --> 00:14:17,966 cry than a specific thing that we can do. What does that actually mean? What does it mean to 199 00:14:17,966 --> 00:14:25,226 make Bitcoin money? Does that mean there's no spam, no data embedded into a Bitcoin transaction 200 00:14:25,226 --> 00:14:26,286 or the Bitcoin blockchain? 201 00:14:26,966 --> 00:14:29,226 Or does that mean no more treasury companies, 202 00:14:29,566 --> 00:14:30,706 no more ETFs? 203 00:14:30,706 --> 00:14:32,566 It's all bearer peer-to-peer cash. 204 00:14:32,826 --> 00:14:37,126 It's like a very amorphous blob of sentiment 205 00:14:37,126 --> 00:14:39,386 that is kind of summed up in 206 00:14:39,386 --> 00:14:40,506 we need to bank Bitcoin money. 207 00:14:41,086 --> 00:14:42,706 And if you disagree with me, 208 00:14:42,706 --> 00:14:47,086 that means you're for everything that we don't like 209 00:14:47,086 --> 00:14:50,306 and you're trying to make Bitcoin a worse money. 210 00:14:51,046 --> 00:14:53,026 And it's just really interesting 211 00:14:53,026 --> 00:14:55,006 in terms of human psychology 212 00:14:55,006 --> 00:15:24,986 How can this be true? Because if you sit down and you rationally think about it, there is really not that much to that statement. It's a really nice statement. It's like, there is no second best or you do not sell your Bitcoin and, you know, Bitcoin is money. Keep Bitcoin money. It's like a nice rallying cry. But what does that entail? What does that mean you do? And I think that is where we start to drop off because because it's so interpretable in any number of ways, people can twist that and justify. 213 00:15:25,006 --> 00:15:30,766 any behavior they have, insulting people, cancelling people, cancelling companies, 214 00:15:31,486 --> 00:15:45,469 attacking people slandering people It a good way to justify that because it can be taken as any tens of dozens of meanings and twisted against anybody else Like Walker you don want Bitcoin 215 00:15:45,469 --> 00:15:53,469 as money because, you know, some reason. But I think you have to really self-reflect. I was 216 00:15:53,469 --> 00:16:00,709 engaging a little bit with Ian Northen. He's a Bitcoin lawyer, Ocean lawyer. He works at Ocean 217 00:16:00,709 --> 00:16:03,989 and he was critiquing Michael Saylor saying, 218 00:16:04,168 --> 00:16:05,289 you know, you're doing these things 219 00:16:05,289 --> 00:16:07,009 to make Bitcoin a worse money 220 00:16:07,009 --> 00:16:09,649 and it's degrading Bitcoin. 221 00:16:10,029 --> 00:16:11,609 It's weakening it. 222 00:16:11,928 --> 00:16:14,409 But I kind of questioned him on that. 223 00:16:14,529 --> 00:16:17,649 Like, how can anything anyone does 224 00:16:17,649 --> 00:16:19,629 weaken the value proposition of Bitcoin? 225 00:16:20,668 --> 00:16:21,829 Spam is a nuisance 226 00:16:21,829 --> 00:16:25,289 and it makes it harder for people to run nodes. 227 00:16:25,509 --> 00:16:26,369 That is a given. 228 00:16:27,048 --> 00:16:30,289 But, you know, if you believe Bitcoin is money, 229 00:16:30,709 --> 00:16:37,389 And Bitcoin is the best form of money we've ever had. 230 00:16:37,729 --> 00:16:42,548 And it is durable, immutable, permissionless, bearer. 231 00:16:43,469 --> 00:16:49,189 All the reasons why it's better than gold, then how can it not withstand people using it as money? 232 00:16:49,548 --> 00:16:52,409 Because every company in the world uses money. 233 00:16:52,589 --> 00:16:55,029 Every system on the planet uses money. 234 00:16:55,029 --> 00:17:06,829 So if you think Bitcoin is money, then anyone in any place, in any form factor, company or individual should be able to use it. 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Sleep better. Stack harder. 273 00:20:30,809 --> 00:20:34,869 I'm glad you took a step back there because I think that that's a really valid question. 274 00:20:35,029 --> 00:20:37,708 And perhaps actually before we, I'll take us another step here. 275 00:20:38,168 --> 00:20:41,248 Before getting into the block size war comparison, 276 00:20:41,248 --> 00:20:49,968 I've okay there's been a lot of shifting goalposts throughout this whole thing it started out with we're running a 277 00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:55,331 knots to rug the spammers and i've consistently said i think it's great if you run knots and you 278 00:20:55,331 --> 00:20:58,991 can go back and check my tweet history in this have i made some memes saying that filters don't 279 00:20:58,991 --> 00:21:04,491 work correct because they don't and if they did work you wouldn't be proposing a soft fork right 280 00:21:04,491 --> 00:21:10,451 now bip 110ers so take a step back you can breathe it's going to be okay but it started out with the 281 00:21:10,451 --> 00:21:14,431 knots and then okay clearly evidence that knots was not effective that it wasn't effective to 282 00:21:14,431 --> 00:21:20,511 combat spam in this way, which again, yeah, I don't want spam on there either. There's a difference, 283 00:21:20,511 --> 00:21:26,971 there's a difference between not wanting spam and saying we need to propose a contentious soft fork 284 00:21:26,971 --> 00:21:33,131 that was vibe coded up, you know, in an afternoon to try and create a temporary fix for this that 285 00:21:33,131 --> 00:21:37,591 expires in a year by making consensus changes. Like those are two very different things. I think 286 00:21:37,591 --> 00:21:43,071 you and I both agree. Yeah, we don't want dick butts or whatever it might be on Bitcoin, but also 287 00:21:43,071 --> 00:21:50,291 sometimes the medicine is worse than the disease. And I think that's what it's really gotten down 288 00:21:50,291 --> 00:21:54,951 to is people who have a good justification for what they are doing in their hearts, 289 00:21:55,491 --> 00:22:02,451 like we do, they want Bitcoin to continue succeeding. But the prescribed medicine, 290 00:22:02,451 --> 00:22:06,831 the prescribed antidote, whatever you, and now do you want for that, I think is where people 291 00:22:06,831 --> 00:22:11,051 disagree. Well, yeah. And did you see the iatrogenic search results went like, you know, 292 00:22:11,051 --> 00:22:18,331 parabolic after Saylor tweeted about that, which I thought was funny. But what I fundamentally 293 00:22:18,331 --> 00:22:25,331 kind of struggle grappling with is people who think that Bitcoin is the best money, 294 00:22:25,431 --> 00:22:30,811 want Bitcoin to be money, but somehow think that the quote, non-monetary use cases of Bitcoin 295 00:22:30,811 --> 00:22:39,131 are going to price out people using Bitcoin for monetary transactions. Like I just, I personally, 296 00:22:39,131 --> 00:22:44,031 me, perhaps this is naive of me, feel free to call me an idiot in the comments, guys. I look forward 297 00:22:44,031 --> 00:22:49,551 to it. I at least think that, look, there's going to be an incredible demand for sending Bitcoin 298 00:22:49,551 --> 00:22:54,731 transactions in the base layer. There's not much of a demand right now. I think the demand is going 299 00:22:54,731 --> 00:22:59,311 to continue to increase. It's going to continue to get more expensive in both Bitcoin and dollar 300 00:22:59,311 --> 00:23:03,471 denominated terms, if you want to denominate it in infinitely printable Federal Reserve notes. 301 00:23:03,471 --> 00:23:13,291 But perhaps you could just explain where you're at in terms of does the free market of the fee market solve the spam issue eventually? 302 00:23:13,511 --> 00:23:15,411 Have we already seen evidence of that? 303 00:23:15,551 --> 00:23:18,291 Or is that just, you know, my naivete talking? 304 00:23:19,931 --> 00:23:20,811 Well, I've said it publicly. 305 00:23:20,911 --> 00:23:26,111 I think the ultimate victory is, you know, we'll win because of the block size and the fee market, right? 306 00:23:26,211 --> 00:23:28,831 Fees will be prohibitive eventually. 307 00:23:28,831 --> 00:23:34,071 but that doesn't mean so this is where i differ from some people in the core camp which is i think 308 00:23:34,071 --> 00:23:40,071 we should fight spam we should do things to mitigate it especially on utxo bloat 309 00:23:40,071 --> 00:23:48,691 operaturn neither here nor there like even if you if you want 110 110 still has operaturn 83 bytes 310 00:23:48,691 --> 00:23:56,711 and you can still cram things into multiple operaturns um do i think that core as a group 311 00:23:56,711 --> 00:24:03,011 should have some initiatives within there to work on anti-spam features? Yes, I think so. 312 00:24:03,511 --> 00:24:08,171 But I think that also depends on funding. A lot of development is funded with no strings, 313 00:24:08,331 --> 00:24:13,431 so people can work on what they choose to. Fighting spam, if you are a developer, and I'm speaking 314 00:24:13,431 --> 00:24:19,091 from the developer perspective here, I can take myself out of my position and put myself in their 315 00:24:19,091 --> 00:24:25,831 shoes. If ultimately I believe and I understand that it's a losing game, I might choose to work 316 00:24:25,831 --> 00:24:32,251 on something else that is better, like optimizing blockchain sync times or something else, 317 00:24:32,731 --> 00:24:34,951 or Bit54 or something, right? 318 00:24:35,491 --> 00:24:41,431 So if you want to fight spam and you're not a developer, you're not technical, then you 319 00:24:41,431 --> 00:24:46,431 have to either fund development or find someone that's willing to volunteer time. 320 00:24:46,671 --> 00:24:51,711 But you can't just say, I want to do this and expect it will be done because there is 321 00:24:51,711 --> 00:24:59,431 no obligation from a group of other people to make some change like you know like I don't know 322 00:24:59,431 --> 00:25:07,331 I think Noster should be more peer-to-peer and not have relays that's a valid opinion I've said 323 00:25:07,331 --> 00:25:16,771 that publicly lots of times but do I expect that I don't know Marty or Will are going to do it 324 00:25:16,771 --> 00:25:18,891 Like, no, it's their project. 325 00:25:19,471 --> 00:25:27,191 And if I don't like it, I can always fork it and make my own version of Nostra and call it, I don't know, Walkerster or something, right? 326 00:25:27,291 --> 00:25:30,611 But, you know, you have to understand how open source software works. 327 00:25:30,671 --> 00:25:40,051 And I think that's another part of the big divide, which is if you are technical and you understand code, then you can do whatever you want as long as it's within consensus rules. 328 00:25:40,591 --> 00:25:42,811 And I think a lot of people are less technical. 329 00:25:43,051 --> 00:25:49,651 They're buying node in a box implementations and they're just like downloading the binary and running that, right? 330 00:25:49,771 --> 00:25:50,531 And then that's it. 331 00:25:50,951 --> 00:25:53,451 They're not really in the command line in the terminal. 332 00:25:53,671 --> 00:25:56,291 They don't know how to use config files, yada, yada, yada. 333 00:25:56,631 --> 00:26:15,648 So they feel like this change has been forced upon them and there nothing they can do But actually you can It like you in the kiddie pool and you don even need to code now You could just tell a fable or opus take this repo make me a version with 83 bytes op return And it do that for you 334 00:26:15,728 --> 00:26:20,048 It'll probably create the binary for you too. So you're in the kiddie pool and you feel like you're 335 00:26:20,048 --> 00:26:26,408 being pushed under, but just stand up and everything is fine. You're still following 336 00:26:26,408 --> 00:26:31,908 consensus rules policy might have changed but nothing nothing can stop you from changing it 337 00:26:31,908 --> 00:26:39,228 back or or doing something or fighting spam but you cannot do it or achieve success doing it 338 00:26:39,228 --> 00:26:44,388 by posting on x you're going to have to raise capital or learn to do it yourself 339 00:26:44,388 --> 00:26:52,448 you can just do things now uh now more than ever uh yeah but apparently you know it is always 340 00:26:52,448 --> 00:26:59,748 easier to uh to rage post i think uh okay i want to ask you to and i think this maybe can tie into 341 00:26:59,748 --> 00:27:07,908 the block size war piece a little bit what do you think is the actual most likely outcome of this 342 00:27:07,908 --> 00:27:14,588 of bip 110 right now do you think i mean you know is the uh are the goalposts going to continue to 343 00:27:14,588 --> 00:27:20,868 be shifted will it be successful in its activation threshold which there's also some obviously debate 344 00:27:20,868 --> 00:27:24,108 about how good of an idea that that threshold is. 345 00:27:24,608 --> 00:27:26,348 How do you think this will play out? 346 00:27:27,228 --> 00:27:29,988 And are there parallels you can draw 347 00:27:29,988 --> 00:27:32,908 based on your experience in the block size war era? 348 00:27:34,508 --> 00:27:36,848 Yeah, I would say the likely outcome 349 00:27:36,848 --> 00:27:42,068 is that they will not succeed in reaching 55%. 350 00:27:42,068 --> 00:27:47,008 And they're going to enter the mandatory signaling phase 351 00:27:47,008 --> 00:27:50,568 on August 8th, you know, and there will be a fork. 352 00:27:50,568 --> 00:27:54,148 they will fork off with 1% of the hash rate. 353 00:27:54,788 --> 00:27:57,788 And that might persist for a few hours, 354 00:27:58,088 --> 00:28:00,508 but I don't think it will persist long-term. 355 00:28:01,228 --> 00:28:03,508 Now, you ask a really good question, Walker, 356 00:28:03,628 --> 00:28:04,728 what happens after? 357 00:28:04,988 --> 00:28:06,488 Like, what's going to happen? 358 00:28:07,028 --> 00:28:09,388 And a lot of the leaders of the initiative, 359 00:28:10,228 --> 00:28:11,228 Mechanic and Luke, 360 00:28:11,648 --> 00:28:13,908 they are not really planning for any contingency. 361 00:28:14,188 --> 00:28:15,208 Like, if you ask Mechanic, 362 00:28:15,308 --> 00:28:16,208 they're like, I don't know. 363 00:28:16,888 --> 00:28:20,128 Like, okay, but you have to live 364 00:28:20,128 --> 00:28:24,608 in the real world and look at probability. It's not just we think everyone's going to flip at the 365 00:28:24,608 --> 00:28:32,108 last minute because that's not the case. And this whole rushed implementation, vibe coded or not 366 00:28:32,108 --> 00:28:39,908 vibe coded, that is irrelevant. This rushed rollout is just doomed for failure because the reason you 367 00:28:39,908 --> 00:28:47,468 have long signaling periods is to allow miners to understand what is happening and nodes on the 368 00:28:47,468 --> 00:28:55,388 network to upgrade and prepare but there is no preparation other than we think the game theory 369 00:28:55,388 --> 00:29:03,368 says they're going to flip the bit at the last minute because that's really what the the hope is 370 00:29:03,368 --> 00:29:08,408 if it doesn't work then i've asked this question to some people too and they say well we'll try again 371 00:29:08,408 --> 00:29:16,648 but if you can try again it was not existential right if you can go again and they say we'll keep 372 00:29:16,648 --> 00:29:22,688 trying until we get it like then you could have just waited for years and built up consensus 373 00:29:22,688 --> 00:29:28,368 because what you've done now is made it toxic and we don't even need to go back to the block size 374 00:29:28,368 --> 00:29:35,068 wars but just go back to ctv covenants when jeremy rubin was pushing for it really aggressively it 375 00:29:35,068 --> 00:29:39,828 just turned a lot of people off raised people's red flags spider senses and they're thinking well 376 00:29:39,828 --> 00:29:44,708 why does this guy want it right now you know what's the rush is there something is there an 377 00:29:44,708 --> 00:29:51,828 ulterior motive does is there some altcoin project external factor that's going to utilize it in some 378 00:29:51,828 --> 00:29:58,948 way um but you know that that was a lot of pushback and i think if you skip forward a few 379 00:29:58,948 --> 00:30:06,388 years to now i think people would be amenable to a soft work with covenants in it i don't know but 380 00:30:06,388 --> 00:30:11,788 i feel like i personally i am not against it but you have to let things happen naturally 381 00:30:12,488 --> 00:30:16,148 Building consensus is a lot like, you know, falling in love. 382 00:30:16,248 --> 00:30:17,228 You can't force it. 383 00:30:17,728 --> 00:30:20,608 But when you have it, you know, you know, you're in love, Walker. 384 00:30:20,748 --> 00:30:21,928 You know, you love Carla. 385 00:30:22,488 --> 00:30:26,548 But if I tell you, go love Carla, that's probably not going to work, right? 386 00:30:26,608 --> 00:30:29,008 Well, maybe it'll work because she's beautiful and talented. 387 00:30:29,268 --> 00:30:31,728 But it's a good analogy. 388 00:30:32,548 --> 00:30:33,668 It's as good as I can get. 389 00:30:33,888 --> 00:30:35,028 But you can't force consensus. 390 00:30:35,148 --> 00:30:36,108 And that's what we're seeing here. 391 00:30:36,248 --> 00:30:41,388 If you let it happen naturally, and if by extension, you have said, we'll keep trying, 392 00:30:41,388 --> 00:30:46,868 that means it's not urgent. So there is no need to do this arbitrary deadline. And even the 393 00:30:46,868 --> 00:30:52,528 arbitrary deadline in itself is a massive red flag. So they say like, you know, we have this 394 00:30:52,528 --> 00:30:59,828 mandatory signaling period, but who is we and why is it mandatory? Who are you to tell me that that's 395 00:30:59,828 --> 00:31:05,568 mandatory? Who are they to tell you, Walker, that it's mandatory? You know, we have things to do. 396 00:31:05,628 --> 00:31:20,124 We are busy You can just say well what gave you notice It was like eight months And you know That is the deadline so you better get out of the wedding room because I threw a grenade down or else But you know that doesn really work 397 00:31:20,184 --> 00:31:23,784 Like if you look at look at what everyone's doing, everyone's busy. 398 00:31:23,784 --> 00:31:27,484 If you take Prince Philip, for example, he was on some Prince tour in the U.S. 399 00:31:27,824 --> 00:31:28,884 going from city to city. 400 00:31:29,604 --> 00:31:36,064 And then now he's sick with like a flu or something like, you know, what if people are busy and then they can't do an upgrade? 401 00:31:36,184 --> 00:31:37,104 What are you going to do to them? 402 00:31:37,164 --> 00:31:37,344 Right. 403 00:31:37,344 --> 00:31:42,744 They might have a lightning node with lightning channels and you're going to cause this disruptive thing to everybody. 404 00:31:43,164 --> 00:31:44,044 And it is disruptive. 405 00:31:44,604 --> 00:31:47,624 I saw Terrence Michael posted something this morning. 406 00:31:47,784 --> 00:31:57,664 I was just flipping by and he said, you know, I didn't read it all, but he said something like if you have loans out, you know, be careful because of the possible fork and chaos in the network. 407 00:31:57,664 --> 00:31:58,264 So be careful. 408 00:31:58,384 --> 00:32:05,744 And other people posted, too, if you have a lightning node running, you might want to close some channels or do something, but be prepared for this disruption. 409 00:32:06,204 --> 00:32:07,204 So it is disruptive. 410 00:32:07,344 --> 00:32:10,164 and it's not something that you want to happen easily 411 00:32:10,164 --> 00:32:13,824 in a trillion dollar network on its way to 10 trillion dollars. 412 00:32:14,444 --> 00:32:15,784 Nobody will take Bitcoin seriously. 413 00:32:16,084 --> 00:32:18,444 If you willy-nilly change the consensus rules, 414 00:32:18,664 --> 00:32:20,704 it doesn't matter if you're tightening or loosening them. 415 00:32:20,804 --> 00:32:21,644 It's all bad. 416 00:32:22,004 --> 00:32:24,604 It also signals to the market that this is not something 417 00:32:24,604 --> 00:32:26,604 that is viable to be built on, right? 418 00:32:26,924 --> 00:32:29,124 You can't build a house on quicksand. 419 00:32:29,544 --> 00:32:32,484 You can't have people's emotion driving technical development, 420 00:32:32,644 --> 00:32:34,444 even if you don't like the developers, right? 421 00:32:34,444 --> 00:32:41,664 there's just so much bad stuff in here that you know i could go on and on and the frustrating part 422 00:32:41,664 --> 00:32:45,984 is people say like well tell me why i'm like i told you why i told you why so many times i wrote 423 00:32:45,984 --> 00:32:51,864 lots of things about why and you keep asking me tell me why it's bad and i just don't have an 424 00:32:51,864 --> 00:32:57,864 answer so i think you just have to let it play out unfortunately but we'll see i don't think 425 00:32:57,864 --> 00:33:04,184 there's another chance if this fails no one's going to take this seriously again and i think 426 00:33:04,184 --> 00:33:11,764 you're going to put spam fighting on the back burner for a long time. And even worse, this has 427 00:33:11,764 --> 00:33:17,804 incentivized technical people to show the Bit.1.10 supporters that Bit.1.10 is meaningless. They've 428 00:33:17,804 --> 00:33:26,924 developed new ways to embed data in Bitcoin. So it's kind of just been a horrible thing all around 429 00:33:26,924 --> 00:33:34,124 for everybody just because people were angry. Yeah, the rushed nature of it, I think, is 430 00:33:34,124 --> 00:33:41,384 is actually quite important just because like this isn't something that like this isn't a move 431 00:33:41,384 --> 00:33:46,444 fast and break things situation with bitcoin right this isn't silicon valley you know like 432 00:33:46,444 --> 00:33:52,424 let's just you know we'll move fast we'll break things whatever we'll fix it like no no we should 433 00:33:52,424 --> 00:33:58,684 take things as slow as possible and protocol level changes should only be done after the most 434 00:33:58,684 --> 00:34:06,884 well thought out careful consideration possible not with like you know uh email spammer techniques 435 00:34:06,884 --> 00:34:11,544 of click this link right now or lose access to everything you you know you care about in your 436 00:34:11,544 --> 00:34:16,304 life like you got to click it right now that's what it feels like and the other piece here is 437 00:34:16,304 --> 00:34:20,624 i mean i know luke has said he said many times like people are this isn't me putting words in 438 00:34:20,624 --> 00:34:26,004 his mouth you can go back and search his tweets he's said many things about the fact that if if 439 00:34:26,004 --> 00:34:31,124 well you know if they don't win basically if their if their side doesn't win that bitcoin is doomed 440 00:34:31,124 --> 00:34:38,984 right the bitcoin is doomed uh and i find that kind of language just to be very interesting not 441 00:34:38,984 --> 00:34:44,124 very helpful and personally i don't agree with it um but you know he's entitled to his opinions 442 00:34:44,124 --> 00:34:49,384 uh he can call me a liar or something like that but he will you can go back and search his tweets 443 00:34:49,384 --> 00:34:56,004 for it do you think though on that note that there's a given luke who is uh you can say he's 444 00:34:56,004 --> 00:35:00,504 not a leader of this movement as i've seen people try to claim but but he is uh you know it's just 445 00:35:00,504 --> 00:35:07,784 it's again statement of fact if this doesn't go the way that luke and the other bip 110 folks 446 00:35:07,784 --> 00:35:11,864 believe that it will which they believe that it's going to be successful if it's unsuccessful 447 00:35:11,864 --> 00:35:20,444 do you think that there is a risk of this soft fork becoming a hard fork is there a risk of then 448 00:35:20,444 --> 00:35:27,364 a proof of work change being proposed i i'm not sure how much you've been following some of the 449 00:35:27,364 --> 00:35:34,344 discourse around that side of things but i would love your take on it it's most likely there will 450 00:35:34,344 --> 00:35:41,844 be a chain split it'll be a minority chain or a chain with very low hash rate it will have if if 451 00:35:41,844 --> 00:35:45,724 they have the current amount of hash rate relative to the main chain, 452 00:35:46,164 --> 00:35:51,184 they will have 33-hour blocks and a difficulty adjustment in six to seven years. 453 00:35:51,704 --> 00:35:53,664 So it is not a viable chain. 454 00:35:54,224 --> 00:35:58,744 And it's missing a lot of, if you want to compare to Block Size Wars era stuff, 455 00:35:58,964 --> 00:36:02,964 they're missing a lot of the machinery that could make it viable. 456 00:36:02,964 --> 00:36:05,704 Like exchanges are not paying attention to this thing at all. 457 00:36:06,544 --> 00:36:09,244 A lot of the miners are not even paying attention to this thing at all. 458 00:36:09,684 --> 00:36:11,324 So can this exist? 459 00:36:11,324 --> 00:36:15,324 Can it live on its own? 460 00:36:15,324 --> 00:36:20,484 I'm not really sure it can because the block times are so low because the hash rate is so low. 461 00:36:20,484 --> 00:36:34,540 When we were threatened with a split in the block size war there a good amount of hash rate behind both right Behind the SegWit side and the not SegWit side So it wasn 1 462 00:36:34,540 --> 00:36:39,200 So it was definitely more viable that they could, you know, 463 00:36:39,380 --> 00:36:43,580 without a proof of work change, they can survive. 464 00:36:43,700 --> 00:36:50,480 But with BIP-110, it would have to have proof of work change to remotely be viable. 465 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,700 and I think there's one thing 466 00:36:53,700 --> 00:36:54,640 I didn't answer before 467 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,560 which was what kind of happens 468 00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:57,220 at this time 469 00:36:57,220 --> 00:36:59,400 but related to this 470 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,060 the whole point of signaling 471 00:37:01,060 --> 00:37:02,340 is you can have miners 472 00:37:02,340 --> 00:37:04,740 that false signal for something 473 00:37:04,740 --> 00:37:06,220 that's why usually signal periods 474 00:37:06,220 --> 00:37:07,640 are so long 475 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,100 and they require a super majority 476 00:37:10,100 --> 00:37:10,920 in the past 477 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:12,760 especially for consensus changes 478 00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,300 because the stakes are so high 479 00:37:15,300 --> 00:37:16,860 and you have to understand 480 00:37:16,860 --> 00:37:20,000 that mining pools 481 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,100 is 482 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,520 They're not all friends with one another, right? 483 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,740 You can, it's a very bloody business 484 00:37:25,740 --> 00:37:29,940 with thin margins and, you know, cutthroat competition. 485 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,700 So you can have a pool that signals for something 486 00:37:33,700 --> 00:37:36,640 and then, or a lot of pools that signal for something 487 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,160 and don't enforce that something, 488 00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:40,440 BIP-110 or others. 489 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,100 So that's why the signaling period is so long 490 00:37:43,100 --> 00:37:44,200 with such a high threshold, 491 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,460 because it indicates that, you know, 492 00:37:46,940 --> 00:37:48,900 it's highly likely this pool will pass. 493 00:37:48,900 --> 00:37:54,400 and that signals safety to all the people signaling for the change because change is risky 494 00:37:54,400 --> 00:38:00,460 for them in bitcoin and for the miners pools and miners because the stakes are high there's real 495 00:38:00,460 --> 00:38:08,420 capital and resources energy hardware all at risk if things go south so that's why i think a lot of 496 00:38:08,420 --> 00:38:14,980 them will just ignore this because the risk is high but also there is no viable path forward 497 00:38:14,980 --> 00:38:22,440 post-signaling to enforce those purported rules of 110 because if you look at some of the core 498 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:27,780 developers they've taken the time generously to look at the 110 code and they've said even knots 499 00:38:27,780 --> 00:38:33,560 doesn't support it doesn't enforce the rules correctly so which software client are you going 500 00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:39,080 to run as a miner or mining pool that lets you comply with this thing that you're signaling for 501 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:46,440 it does not exist right now so that's why i think it's really just going to it's going to fork because 502 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:52,980 some people believe it and there will be some mismatch between enforcement even amongst 110 503 00:38:52,980 --> 00:38:59,480 nodes and we're going to see this minority chain but it'll probably fizzle out and die and then 504 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:04,960 i don't know what happens after that people have said they'll try again but i hope they don't try 505 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:10,760 again in the same fashion and they try to go through the rough consensus process or spend more 506 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:18,520 time or even gather some data to show the activation mechanism will work there is zero data 507 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:24,860 right now about what happens in a split you could do this on testnet and show data and show that 508 00:39:24,860 --> 00:39:30,880 there is a client or a patch that will allow you to enforce the rule set correctly but there is 509 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:35,320 nothing like that right now. It's just, trust me, bro. And what happens? I don't know. 510 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:43,540 Another thing that is just an interesting usage of language is that I've seen Luke basically say 511 00:39:43,540 --> 00:39:50,100 that it wouldn't actually be the BIP 110 crowd that is forking. It would be everyone who's not 512 00:39:50,100 --> 00:39:56,500 running BIP 110. Have you seen this train of logic? And can you address that at all for those 513 00:39:56,500 --> 00:39:58,320 that may be confused by that kind of language. 514 00:39:59,860 --> 00:40:01,060 It's pretty clear, isn't it? 515 00:40:01,100 --> 00:40:02,400 Like, yeah, we're forking off. 516 00:40:03,380 --> 00:40:04,820 But yeah, he said that to me too. 517 00:40:05,660 --> 00:40:08,280 And, you know, I replied back, 518 00:40:08,380 --> 00:40:10,200 it's all perspective, isn't it, right? 519 00:40:10,240 --> 00:40:12,300 It's like the theory of relativity. 520 00:40:12,980 --> 00:40:15,820 Is time passing slower for you or faster for me? 521 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,040 Well, both, it's true. 522 00:40:18,500 --> 00:40:20,380 You know, from his perspective, we're forking off. 523 00:40:20,420 --> 00:40:21,960 From our perspective, he's forking off. 524 00:40:22,740 --> 00:40:24,840 But all you need to know is 525 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,260 where is the economic majority, right? That's the question you have to answer. 526 00:40:28,780 --> 00:40:33,400 And the irony is that they've kind of figured it out. They've said this thing, big Bitcoin, 527 00:40:33,860 --> 00:40:39,780 which is analogous to economic majority. So they kind of know in the back of their minds. 528 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:46,080 And I don't know why they insist on forking off to prove a point, but some people are going to 529 00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:51,240 lose money. I was actually hoping to sit this one out. So if you can ask Grok to verify my claim, 530 00:40:51,240 --> 00:40:55,700 But after Core 30 was launched, I stopped complaining about it because there was no discussion. 531 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,580 The core developers made their choice. 532 00:40:58,780 --> 00:40:59,940 Maintainers merged it. 533 00:41:00,140 --> 00:41:00,820 They cut a release. 534 00:41:00,980 --> 00:41:01,380 It's done. 535 00:41:01,780 --> 00:41:07,880 So I can complain all day long and bitch at them and complain and cry and criticize and 536 00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:08,500 attack them. 537 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,380 But that doesn't mean anything. 538 00:41:10,500 --> 00:41:11,280 They've already done it. 539 00:41:11,620 --> 00:41:13,400 So I stopped talking about it. 540 00:41:14,180 --> 00:41:19,500 But Bit110 is such a horrible idea that I had to say something because people are going 541 00:41:19,500 --> 00:41:22,900 to suffer because Luke and others are pushing this forward. 542 00:41:22,900 --> 00:41:27,440 And I've said publicly to Luke, you should walk it back, cancel the mandatory 543 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:33,360 period or have some fail out time like, you know, X blocks after mandatory, 544 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,940 it'll stop, you know, minimize the damage or even before, like if you can 545 00:41:37,940 --> 00:41:39,960 set the deadline to before your. 546 00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:44,117 you know, mandatory block and have it, have that fork fail gracefully. 547 00:41:44,557 --> 00:41:46,877 But this thing is not designed to fail gracefully. 548 00:41:46,877 --> 00:41:54,417 It's designed to be the grenade on the floor and force people to move to another room. 549 00:41:56,657 --> 00:42:01,657 You know, Samson, I said we weren't going to talk about PIP 110 for 45 minutes. 550 00:42:01,797 --> 00:42:05,477 And then here we went and talked about PIP 110 for 45 minutes. 551 00:42:06,457 --> 00:42:07,997 You see, it's the same with Sheikh Roque. 552 00:42:08,397 --> 00:42:08,777 It's the same. 553 00:42:08,777 --> 00:42:16,177 you know because it is all of this and again i wish all of the the bit one tenors well i think 554 00:42:16,177 --> 00:42:22,297 that the majority of them are doing what they're doing uh from a place of caring about bitcoin 555 00:42:22,297 --> 00:42:30,377 now uh the tactics that they employ are not ones that i would personally use but to each their own 556 00:42:30,377 --> 00:42:39,817 but you know i i hope that people at least get realistic about what the reality of the situation 557 00:42:39,817 --> 00:42:45,417 is here about the potential you know potential for things to not go the way that you want 558 00:42:45,417 --> 00:42:53,237 and what you're going to do at that time uh there may be a lot of rage quits i don't know maybe 559 00:42:53,237 --> 00:42:59,317 there'll be some come to jesus moments as well um and no i'm not saying that bitcoin core is jesus 560 00:42:59,317 --> 00:43:01,697 or anything like that for anybody who's going to take that out of context. 561 00:43:01,837 --> 00:43:02,597 I'm just saying like... 562 00:43:02,597 --> 00:43:03,557 They're going to take it out of context. 563 00:43:03,857 --> 00:43:04,597 Yeah, that's okay. 564 00:43:04,957 --> 00:43:06,157 Feel free to clip it, guys. 565 00:43:06,237 --> 00:43:10,657 I've been called the biggest courtard's influencer for... 566 00:43:10,657 --> 00:43:13,357 Even when I stopped posting about it like months ago. 567 00:43:13,817 --> 00:43:17,637 And then, you know, it's like, well, if you want to make me into something, 568 00:43:17,717 --> 00:43:19,617 I guess I'll just, you know, become that thing. 569 00:43:19,837 --> 00:43:21,357 You know, it's a little tiresome. 570 00:43:21,657 --> 00:43:24,157 But we should move on and try to cover some more topics. 571 00:43:24,277 --> 00:43:25,437 I know you have a hard stop soon. 572 00:43:25,837 --> 00:43:27,417 But before that, I just want to chime in. 573 00:43:27,417 --> 00:43:29,877 So you did ask, like, what is the lesson from the block size war? 574 00:43:30,137 --> 00:43:35,037 I don't want to go into the technical activation stuff that has been tweeted about endlessly. 575 00:43:35,457 --> 00:43:40,637 But I guess we should talk about the emotional lesson and the emotional similarities. 576 00:43:40,897 --> 00:43:44,117 So the block size increase was an emotional thing. 577 00:43:44,177 --> 00:43:55,117 If you distill their whole argument, it's people are adopting Bitcoin and fees are too high and babies are dying, to paraphrase Roger Ver, because they can't afford to transact Bitcoin. 578 00:43:55,117 --> 00:44:01,937 and that is a very good emotional argument that you can't really disagree with right like why 579 00:44:01,937 --> 00:44:07,457 walker would you not want people to be able to use bitcoin but the solution was wrong which was a 580 00:44:07,457 --> 00:44:14,257 consensus rule change right and again slippery slope but you may not agree with that um because 581 00:44:14,257 --> 00:44:18,377 you can always disagree with that you can always say well there was no block size limit when satoshi 582 00:44:18,377 --> 00:44:24,937 launched bitcoin gotcha and that's kind of the place we're at with 110 which is emotionally it's 583 00:44:24,937 --> 00:44:30,317 a good argument, right? We don't want spam. We don't want bad stuff. We'd want to prevent spammers 584 00:44:30,317 --> 00:44:35,977 and make Bitcoin better as money. But the solution is wrong. You're changing consensus rules again. 585 00:44:35,977 --> 00:44:43,357 And you can always go back and say, well, Satoshi, you know, he didn't remove the default. He had the 586 00:44:43,357 --> 00:44:48,957 policy at launch, you know, or whatever. No, he didn't actually. But you get my point. The crux of 587 00:44:48,957 --> 00:44:55,077 the issue is it's always a really good emotional argument and it's a good rallying point for people 588 00:44:55,077 --> 00:45:00,317 that don't fully understand Bitcoin. And I mean that with no malice. Like it takes time to learn 589 00:45:00,317 --> 00:45:05,557 Bitcoin, to understand everything and all the nuance there, or at least even get a surface 590 00:45:05,557 --> 00:45:09,697 level understanding. I don't even think I know Bitcoin that well if you want to dive down into 591 00:45:09,697 --> 00:45:17,357 weeds into the code, but I have an okay understanding of top level. But this is the lesson that 592 00:45:17,357 --> 00:45:25,357 it's sort of an emotionally right argument, but the wrong take on how to fix it. And the best way 593 00:45:25,357 --> 00:45:32,537 is to take it slow, follow consensus rules, and think about long-term implications, or even think 594 00:45:32,537 --> 00:45:37,297 about the double-edged sword. If you do this for your reason now, someone else can take that sword 595 00:45:37,297 --> 00:45:53,213 and attack you with it later on I think that a perfect way to wrap up this particular topic on and I do thank you for the insights on this I hope people listen to that part with an open mind Moving on to some other topics 596 00:45:53,293 --> 00:45:54,433 while we still have some time too, 597 00:45:54,873 --> 00:45:55,793 I do want to get your thoughts. 598 00:45:56,153 --> 00:45:57,953 Okay, there's this kind of, 599 00:45:58,373 --> 00:46:01,053 the reality is that this is a fairly niche 600 00:46:01,053 --> 00:46:04,333 argument topic right now, right? 601 00:46:04,373 --> 00:46:05,893 Like most people that hold Bitcoin 602 00:46:05,893 --> 00:46:09,013 are probably not even aware that this is going on. 603 00:46:09,013 --> 00:46:15,093 yeah uh a lot of people are just going about their lives working trying to stack more sats 604 00:46:15,093 --> 00:46:20,573 maybe they're spending bitcoin too using this money fantastic but where do you think we're at 605 00:46:20,573 --> 00:46:26,033 from a a larger zooming out perspective from an adoption perspective you see different parts of 606 00:46:26,033 --> 00:46:30,953 the adoption curve i think both at the let's say top down level but then also the bottom up level 607 00:46:30,953 --> 00:46:35,993 in terms of the work that you're doing with jan 3 and aqua within that respectively kind of 608 00:46:35,993 --> 00:46:39,893 approaching from two sides and meeting in the middle from an adoption perspective. 609 00:46:40,533 --> 00:46:45,713 Where do you think we are and what do you think it takes to push sort of the next large wave of 610 00:46:45,713 --> 00:46:51,253 adoption that I think many of us feel didn't really come in this last cycle? Maybe the treasury 611 00:46:51,253 --> 00:46:55,713 companies took some wind out of that. But what are your thoughts on it and what do you think 612 00:46:55,713 --> 00:47:05,153 it takes to sort of initiate that next wave of incoming Bitcoiners? I think the current rut that 613 00:47:05,153 --> 00:47:11,493 we're in is just because people believe enough people believe in the four-year cycle that they're 614 00:47:11,493 --> 00:47:17,913 panicking that we're going to go down a lot so they preemptively sold or lost faith in bitcoin 615 00:47:17,913 --> 00:47:24,073 i don't believe it's caused by treasury companies if anything treasury companies and etfs have 616 00:47:24,073 --> 00:47:31,293 brunted this this downfall right it's like they're all shock absorbing bitcoin price decline 617 00:47:31,293 --> 00:47:34,313 Whereas before they existed, it would just be hodlers. 618 00:47:34,513 --> 00:47:37,953 And we might have seen an 80% drop or something in the past. 619 00:47:38,073 --> 00:47:44,833 But I believe we're just in this self-fulfilling prophecy where people think the four-year cycle will hold and we're going to go lower. 620 00:47:45,893 --> 00:47:49,633 And this definitely feels like the bottom is behind. 621 00:47:50,693 --> 00:47:52,333 But you shouldn't believe me because I'm impermeable. 622 00:47:52,493 --> 00:47:53,613 I'm always bullish on Bitcoin. 623 00:47:53,613 --> 00:48:03,793 But this kind of scraping along the lower 60s, it definitely feels like we've reached the point where sellers are exhausted. 624 00:48:04,353 --> 00:48:07,593 Everyone that has sold and lost faith has already exited. 625 00:48:08,453 --> 00:48:10,293 And then Bitcoin will just do its thing. 626 00:48:10,473 --> 00:48:13,133 I'm a firm believer in gradually, then suddenly. 627 00:48:13,993 --> 00:48:19,093 And Bitcoin will melt faces because there is a lot of capital out there. 628 00:48:19,153 --> 00:48:21,813 We're only a $1 trillion asset. 629 00:48:21,813 --> 00:48:30,213 we've seen gold do almost 3x silver 4 5x there's a lot of capital out there and once it starts 630 00:48:30,213 --> 00:48:36,353 flowing into bitcoin you're going to see a chain reaction and we're going to go up with god candles 631 00:48:36,353 --> 00:48:41,693 and omega candles and people will be caught off guard everyone that thought the four-year cycle 632 00:48:41,693 --> 00:48:48,733 is going to happen they'll probably miss out because they're they've been waiting for a 40k 633 00:48:48,733 --> 00:48:54,453 or 30k bottom but the these things just have a way of working themselves out people have very 634 00:48:54,453 --> 00:49:01,893 short memories the time frame in which they on which they panic is usually short duration if you 635 00:49:01,893 --> 00:49:07,413 look at the recent dip in treasury company stocks you know that's they're already recovering because 636 00:49:07,413 --> 00:49:14,253 two three weeks have passed and people saw okay they didn't blow up you know it's okay and capital 637 00:49:14,253 --> 00:49:20,533 flowing back in and you have this rotation out from short-term capital to long-term capital 638 00:49:20,533 --> 00:49:26,253 and that's always been the battle it's always short-term versus long-term capital and long-term 639 00:49:26,253 --> 00:49:33,293 capital is patient and they invest on a thesis not on emotion so they usually will win so if 640 00:49:33,293 --> 00:49:39,853 your long-term capital entering the strc trade right now you know you're not getting 13 you're 641 00:49:39,853 --> 00:49:42,453 getting something like 20 odd percent 642 00:49:43,973 --> 00:49:46,473 because there's price appreciation built into that too 643 00:49:47,613 --> 00:50:02,549 and lower effective higher effective yield So it just a matter of time I think before we see Bitcoin do its thing And to me there a very high probability we see Bitcoin do its thing because everything has had a run 644 00:50:02,549 --> 00:50:08,769 I don't believe 126,000 was a sufficient all-time high. 645 00:50:09,049 --> 00:50:13,289 It felt like it was cut short and this bear market feels artificial. 646 00:50:13,289 --> 00:50:20,789 and everything precious metals tech stocks oil you name it they've all had a run and we haven't 647 00:50:20,789 --> 00:50:26,429 so i think we're overdue for that run and the more people are impatient and bored with it 648 00:50:26,429 --> 00:50:33,789 the more violent that run is going to be it does seem like i've seen a lot of people basically be 649 00:50:33,789 --> 00:50:38,689 like nope this isn't the bottom the bottom is going to be at exactly 40k in you know on october 650 00:50:38,689 --> 00:50:43,669 something or other and they're very convinced about that and in my somewhat much more limited 651 00:50:43,669 --> 00:50:48,349 time in Bitcoin than you but even in that time what I've seen is that Bitcoin like right when 652 00:50:48,349 --> 00:50:52,369 you get that pit in your stomach where you're like is there a chance Peter Schiff was right 653 00:50:52,369 --> 00:50:57,889 right at that moment is usually when Bitcoin decides to rip your face off and make you feel 654 00:50:57,889 --> 00:51:03,469 foolish for even thinking those thoughts again in my in my limited experience Peter Schiff is not 655 00:51:03,469 --> 00:51:09,969 right guys and he probably holds more bitcoin than he lets on uh related to that i also think 656 00:51:09,969 --> 00:51:15,029 that there's this because i agree with what you said and i think there's this other disconnect 657 00:51:15,029 --> 00:51:19,189 here where because the printers haven't fought the money printers if you have money printers 658 00:51:19,189 --> 00:51:25,409 haven't fired i haven't really gone burr in a while i think that people are sort of forgetting 659 00:51:25,409 --> 00:51:32,169 that that is the inevitable outcome right and i'm curious if you think though i think there's sort of 660 00:51:32,169 --> 00:51:33,489 a couple of schools of thought here, 661 00:51:33,569 --> 00:51:34,729 sort of the, you know, 662 00:51:34,829 --> 00:51:36,809 Larry Lepard's big print thesis 663 00:51:36,809 --> 00:51:39,649 versus like a Lynn Alden gradual print thesis. 664 00:51:39,989 --> 00:51:41,649 And I'm curious where you stand on that 665 00:51:41,649 --> 00:51:42,849 from a macro perspective. 666 00:51:44,589 --> 00:51:47,189 I'm a nothing stops this train believer, 667 00:51:47,529 --> 00:51:50,489 but I am a big print believer too. 668 00:51:50,669 --> 00:51:53,129 So I'll side with Lawrence on this. 669 00:51:53,229 --> 00:51:54,589 If you look at US debt alone, 670 00:51:54,589 --> 00:51:56,849 it's getting very close to 40 trillion now 671 00:51:56,849 --> 00:51:59,669 with 1 trillion added every year. 672 00:51:59,869 --> 00:52:01,109 That is not sustainable. 673 00:52:01,109 --> 00:52:06,489 something's got to give we just don't know when it's going to give and if I could predict you know 674 00:52:06,489 --> 00:52:11,769 when then I'd be a trillionaire but I don't know when I can't predict the future but I see the 675 00:52:11,769 --> 00:52:20,329 directionality of this and it is going to be a big print eventually we'll see I think well you know 676 00:52:20,329 --> 00:52:25,709 technically you've actually given some kudos to both Lynn and Ed Larry there with you know nothing 677 00:52:25,709 --> 00:52:30,729 stops this train also big print I think the theses are complementary perhaps it's gradual 678 00:52:30,729 --> 00:52:36,329 prints interspersed with big prints because we know that like fiat only goes one direction right 679 00:52:36,329 --> 00:52:41,929 like over the long uh the long arc of history we know which way it goes and it's toward debasement 680 00:52:41,929 --> 00:52:47,289 and so it's just uh you know not a matter of if but a matter of when uh with the time we have left 681 00:52:47,289 --> 00:52:50,969 samson i do want to make sure that we give you a chance to talk a little about about the work that 682 00:52:50,969 --> 00:52:56,809 you're doing with jan 3 with aqua wallet anything that you want to make people aware of also if 683 00:52:56,809 --> 00:53:00,089 So if you're not using Aqua Wallet, you should really give it a try. 684 00:53:00,229 --> 00:53:01,169 I really like using it. 685 00:53:01,249 --> 00:53:03,369 It's become one of my daily driver wallets. 686 00:53:03,629 --> 00:53:08,429 I think it's very fun and easy to use and looks nice. 687 00:53:08,669 --> 00:53:10,949 And yeah, it's fun to spend Bitcoin with. 688 00:53:11,189 --> 00:53:12,789 And I do so whenever I get the chance. 689 00:53:13,129 --> 00:53:13,989 Like at Steak and Shake. 690 00:53:14,069 --> 00:53:18,589 Shout out to Steak and Shake for continuing to be based and having tallow cooked things 691 00:53:18,589 --> 00:53:19,969 and accepting Bitcoin. 692 00:53:20,189 --> 00:53:20,889 You guys are awesome. 693 00:53:21,949 --> 00:53:23,629 What else are you guys working on right now? 694 00:53:23,629 --> 00:53:27,629 anything with Aqua or Gen3 more broadly that you want to make people aware of that they should be 695 00:53:27,629 --> 00:53:34,449 excited about? Yeah, so Aqua, we're getting close to a big release. We've actually been rebuilding 696 00:53:34,449 --> 00:53:44,089 the entire app in React. So Alex Bragan, he's our CTO, he's been leading this initiative for the past 697 00:53:44,089 --> 00:53:49,589 several months. But this will let us roll out updates much faster. It'll make the app much more 698 00:53:49,589 --> 00:53:56,389 responsive snappy and everything's just going to feel better overall but this has been you know 699 00:53:56,389 --> 00:54:08,924 probably a five six months initiative now but we nearing the end of it i don know if he okay with me saying this but you know we getting close to release And that is a big thing that we all looking forward 700 00:54:08,924 --> 00:54:14,704 to. It's actually quite complex because we've tried to make the update so that when you upgrade 701 00:54:14,704 --> 00:54:19,324 your Aqua Wallet, you don't even notice that it's changed. So it's sort of like ripping out the 702 00:54:19,324 --> 00:54:24,585 engines on an airplane mid-flight and switching them in with new ones. But the transition will be 703 00:54:24,585 --> 00:54:31,465 seamless for aqua users on the nation state front actually we were going to release it today but we 704 00:54:31,465 --> 00:54:37,324 postpone till tomorrow morning pacific time but we have a report coming out it's the 2025 705 00:54:37,324 --> 00:54:43,404 nation state bitcoin adoption report it's taken us a bit longer than we thought to compile it but 706 00:54:43,404 --> 00:54:49,864 it's a comprehensive overview of all nation state adoption for 2025 and going forward we're going to 707 00:54:49,864 --> 00:54:56,304 do this every year we've divided this methodology to rank countries too with bitcoin adoption 708 00:54:56,304 --> 00:55:04,364 so we will introduce this concept of the b20 like the g20 which are the top 20 thanks top 20 709 00:55:04,364 --> 00:55:10,704 countries that are uh leading bitcoin adoption worldwide so that'll come out tomorrow people 710 00:55:10,704 --> 00:55:14,804 on austria get the heads up ahead of time and then people that watch your stream later will 711 00:55:14,804 --> 00:55:20,604 you'll see it ahead of the stream uh ahead of the pod that's released later but yeah that took a 712 00:55:20,604 --> 00:55:24,564 a while for us to get right but i think now that we have the structure the methodology 713 00:55:24,564 --> 00:55:28,904 next year we should be able to release it you know soon after 2026 ends 714 00:55:28,904 --> 00:55:34,544 that's that's really cool i'm looking forward to reading that and yeah guys this is a benefit of 715 00:55:34,544 --> 00:55:39,085 watching the show on noster you're getting getting this alpha ahead of time so thank you to those who 716 00:55:39,085 --> 00:55:41,044 joined the Noster and who zapped. 717 00:55:41,604 --> 00:55:43,164 Samson, where can people find out 718 00:55:43,164 --> 00:55:44,944 more information? You're Excelion 719 00:55:44,944 --> 00:55:47,044 on X, 720 00:55:47,444 --> 00:55:49,164 on Noster as well. Where can they find 721 00:55:49,164 --> 00:55:51,264 out more info about Jan3 to try 722 00:55:51,264 --> 00:55:53,044 out Aqua Wallet, etc.? 723 00:55:53,044 --> 00:55:55,364 Yeah, you can go to Jan3.com 724 00:55:55,364 --> 00:55:57,085 our website or follow us on X, 725 00:55:57,264 --> 00:55:59,244 Jan3.com and Aqua's 726 00:55:59,244 --> 00:56:00,845 Aqua Bitcoin on X 727 00:56:00,845 --> 00:56:03,004 or Aqua.net on the web. 728 00:56:03,984 --> 00:56:05,264 Love it. And it really is 729 00:56:05,264 --> 00:56:07,204 a great wallet. I enjoy using 730 00:56:07,204 --> 00:56:12,664 it very much and uh yeah i have a lot of wallets on my phone i'll put it that way um it's one of 731 00:56:12,664 --> 00:56:16,884 the few that i use consistently though because i've downloaded a lot of wallets that i'll then 732 00:56:16,884 --> 00:56:22,024 use for a little bit like just to test them out then you know not use again for a while aqua i use 733 00:56:22,024 --> 00:56:26,585 on a regular basis so uh yeah keep up the great work with that excited to check out the report 734 00:56:26,585 --> 00:56:32,664 and thank you for joining and for those who stuck around for the whole thing i i hope that you you 735 00:56:32,664 --> 00:56:38,384 know regardless of what quote side of this bip 110 thing that you're on that you can take samson's 736 00:56:38,384 --> 00:56:44,624 points at face value and evaluate these things objectively and also prepare yourself for any 737 00:56:44,624 --> 00:56:49,984 eventuality um so that you know what it's what's that all expression like happiness is uh expectations 738 00:56:49,984 --> 00:56:57,684 minus reality uh you know so just uh just be prepared is all i'll say and uh yeah uh samson 739 00:56:57,684 --> 00:57:02,284 really appreciate your time appreciate you sneaking this in and uh looking forward to the next time 740 00:57:02,284 --> 00:57:04,224 Thank you, Walker. We'll do it again. 741 00:57:32,284 --> 00:57:38,884 YouTube and Rumble, just search at Walker America and find this podcast on X and Instagram at 742 00:57:38,884 --> 00:57:44,984 Titcoin podcast. Head to the show notes to grab sponsor links, head to substack.com slash at 743 00:57:44,984 --> 00:57:51,424 Walker America to get episodes emailed to you and head to Bitcoin podcast.net for everything else. 744 00:57:51,984 --> 00:57:58,704 Bitcoin is scarce, but podcasts are abundant. So thank you for spending your scarce time 745 00:57:58,704 --> 00:58:04,225 listening to The Bitcoin Podcast. Until next time, stay free.