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How's it going?

2
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Oh, man.

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Absolutely nothing happening this week.

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Happy Friday.

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Very boring week.

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How'd you make it through the week?

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My week was kind of crazy, man.

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I've had a lot of work going on, sort of traditional work.

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You didn't work, dude.

10
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You're meant to be capitalists.

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That's why I thought someone asked me if I was skiing this week, and the answer was absolutely not.

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I've had a lot of things culminating at once.

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Traditional work, some solar maxing, some MSTR maxing, which we'll talk about later.

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We had the Builder Meetup, which was awesome.

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I also went with the Vora guys to go see Deltron 3030.

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So that's a little bit of underground hip hop alpha right there.

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It was pretty,

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it was pretty.

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That was last night,

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right?

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It was two nights ago.

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So it's been,

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it's been a busy,

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it was awesome.

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I think Dan,

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the automator who's like their sort of producer,

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every project he's touched has been just gold.

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So he's,

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a lot of people don't realize this.

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They'll probably know him most is the producer behind gorillas.

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But he's also behind handsome boy modeling school.

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Dr. Octagon

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all kinds of really great stuff

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so it was fabulous

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Great, well for the more normie

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boomer music taste

37
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I've got to recommend the Billy Joel documentary

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I was telling Steve about this

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Have you seen this?

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I've definitely not

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You know who Billy Joel is?

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Have you heard of him?

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I'm a pianist

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so I love this kind of

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I've been a big fan of him for a long time

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But um

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we're having fun here ladies and gentlemen

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don't worry

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he's got a new documentary

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kind of autobiography of his life

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you know

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and first episode came out last week

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second episode comes out today I think

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and it was great

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I've been recommending anybody who has any interest in

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Billy Joel or music

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or just the history of kind of

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what role he played in

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the history of music and music at that time

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cool

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to check that one out

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I know Steve is going to do it

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because he's

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I can tell

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he's older than me

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he's salivating

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this does remind me though

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by the way

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like I will say

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one fun takeaway for me

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is just hearing such

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really high quality

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hip hop again

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has got me inspired

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and again

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I have more on my plate

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than I've had

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in a long time

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but

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I definitely want

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to get back

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into recording again

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so

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you gotta get more

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agentic workflows

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so that you get

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all of your actual work

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out of your life

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and then you can focus

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on the creative stuff

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it is creative

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it's very exciting

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and you know a lot about it.

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My playlist this morning

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started with Alice in Chains,

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which is a continuation

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from last night.

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All right.

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I think I heard you last night,

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actually, as I was walking out of here.

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Yeah, you did.

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Yeah.

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I passed you.

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And then,

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in the spirit of Billy Joel,

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this morning,

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I listened to Elton John.

108
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I'm more of an Elton John fan

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than Billy Joel.

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Okay.

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I lumped them sort of together.

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Yeah, yeah.

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They talk about that.

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They were a little bit confused

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where people would try to

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try to tell him

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to be more like Elton

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and he's like,

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no, no,

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we're just really different.

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Well, they are very,

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they're very different,

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but like kind of.

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Yeah, yeah.

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High level.

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And then,

127
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but then I was going on a run

128
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this morning with Matt,

129
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Matt Belez.

130
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And so I,

131
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I needed something

132
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more than Elton John

133
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to pump me up.

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So I switched.

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I'm going to guess.

136
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You're not going to get it.

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Okay, fine.

138
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Go ahead.

139
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Go ahead and put the guess.

140
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Yeah, I want to hear the next one.

141
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I thought it was going to be,

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you know,

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Ozzy Osbourne passed away this week.

144
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Oh, that's a good guess.

145
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And so I thought I was going to say

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Crazy Train.

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Okay.

148
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That'd be a good running song too.

149
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That's a good guess.

150
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It wasn't that.

151
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Metallica.

152
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I would have guessed,

153
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well, that's a good guess

154
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because I told you recently

155
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that that's also a good guess.

156
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Another good guess

157
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would have been GNR.

158
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Actually, all those were better

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than what I actually said.

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But some Def Leppard.

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Oh, okay.

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Still good.

163
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Still good.

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Got me pumped up.

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So when I went on this run with Matt,

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Matt and I are both

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pretty similar fitness level running.

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We weren't sure who was going to,

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we wanted to go on a run,

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nice casual run,

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except there's a segment of the run called the sand ladder.

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Are you familiar with the sand ladder?

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Oh, yeah, down to the beach.

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Yeah, off of Baker Beach.

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It's part of the Escape from Alcatraz race course as well.

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It's not that big a hill, but it's really steep.

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It's super sandy and slippery.

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It's like uneven stairs.

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So it's like more obstacle course-y for those that are not familiar with it.

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Anyway, it's a good time trial.

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and it's on the order of a couple minutes.

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So it's not like some half hour climb or something.

183
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And I've recently run with other people

184
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at Presidio Bitcoin and people from my team and stuff.

185
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And so I knew, so my PR up this is one minute,

186
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54 seconds, right?

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So I figured running with Matt is going to really push,

188
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elevate me, push me to PR.

189
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So we run it and we literally didn't know

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who was going to win, but it ends up,

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he,

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he did,

193
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he handily won.

194
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Did he beat your PR?

195
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He,

196
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he beat,

197
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he,

198
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well,

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first,

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he beat me by like four or five seconds probably.

201
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So it was like a very,

202
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That doesn't sound that much.

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Yeah.

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But it was a material.

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I mean,

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he,

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he had me there because I was full gassed.

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Yeah.

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Um,

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and he probably could have ran a couple of seconds faster.

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Anyway,

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so hats off to Matt for beating me.

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Hats off Matt.

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Hats off.

215
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I'm actually really happy though.

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Uh,

217
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so that's what you were surprised.

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Why am I happy?

219
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Why are you happy?

220
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I've never seen you lose and be happy.

221
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because I checked out my PR

222
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and I beat it by 16 seconds.

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What?

224
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Oh.

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Wow.

226
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Which is huge.

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Like going from 154 to 138

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is enormous.

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Helps have that rabbit there.

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Wow.

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Iron sharpens iron.

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And I,

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and I,

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it's not like I've been dogging it.

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Yeah, yeah.

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Like 154,

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I pushed hard.

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So I like really,

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I really pushed hard apparently.

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Rocking.

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Random 138.

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Love it.

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So I did really great

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and

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great.

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I'm glad you can celebrate your friends

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even when they kick your ass.

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So the music,

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I always celebrate my friends.

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That sounds like a challenge for DK.

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Is there a race being lined up yet?

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DK cannot run a 130.

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I'm not ready for that.

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But I also, actually, speaking of competitions,

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I've been doing more,

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I've not gone all in on pull-ups,

257
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but I've been doing pull-ups last, you know,

258
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a little bit on and off the last couple of years.

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I'm at least, I've moved beyond like off the couch

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doing like two, struggling to do two.

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And I can do like 12 or 13 pull-ups now,

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three sets of 10.

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that's sort of where I'm at.

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Pretty happy with that.

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But we have a pull-up bar here

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at Presidia Bitcoin.

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That's right.

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And I'm definitely not number one

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at Presidia Bitcoin

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because you, me,

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and it was Andy, I think.

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Lawrence.

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It was Lawrence.

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Yeah.

275
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Okay.

276
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We all tried to do our most.

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And I did 12.

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I think I got it at 13,

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but like I know more than 13.

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And then you did 15.

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14 or 15.

282
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15.

283
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But I went first.

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Yeah, right.

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That's true.

286
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I had more gas than 10.

287
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and Lawrence did more

288
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he did more

289
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Lawrence pretty jacked

290
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I was going to say Austin

291
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I think we could have some strong pull up

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competitions within Presidio Bitcoin

293
00:06:58,860 --> 00:07:00,700
hey man this is like the whole vibe of

294
00:07:00,700 --> 00:07:02,560
Presidio Bitcoin and everything we're all pushing each other

295
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,660
Bitcoin pull ups you name it

296
00:07:04,660 --> 00:07:06,800
like get ready there's going to be some big stuff coming out of here

297
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:07,020
yeah

298
00:07:07,020 --> 00:07:09,140
August will too

299
00:07:09,140 --> 00:07:11,400
so let's see what do we have on

300
00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:12,420
I think Builders

301
00:07:12,420 --> 00:07:14,780
yesterday was last night

302
00:07:14,780 --> 00:07:16,660
builders, right? So I think

303
00:07:16,660 --> 00:07:18,720
the show, the concept

304
00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,660
of this event, I think, was sort of invented on

305
00:07:20,660 --> 00:07:22,060
the show. I think you proposed it

306
00:07:22,060 --> 00:07:23,600
a month or two ago.

307
00:07:24,540 --> 00:07:26,680
And so last night was the official

308
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,660
first one, and I think if anybody's been to...

309
00:07:28,660 --> 00:07:29,020
No, the second one.

310
00:07:29,020 --> 00:07:30,320
Sorry, my first one.

311
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,720
The second one that we've hosted.

312
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,220
It still counts even if it were there.

313
00:07:36,940 --> 00:07:38,060
But it's, I think,

314
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,500
inspired by the format of

315
00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:42,580
like a BitDevs or LitDevs, but it's more

316
00:07:42,580 --> 00:07:44,120
for product builders, so it kind of

317
00:07:44,780 --> 00:07:53,200
approaches a new audience, welcomes a new type of builder in, somebody who maybe has opinions and thoughts and ideas around products they want to build,

318
00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,880
but maybe isn't necessarily into the technical details of Bitcoin.

319
00:07:56,300 --> 00:07:58,260
It could be, but certainly not a requirement.

320
00:07:58,740 --> 00:08:04,940
So we sort of did a bunch of demos, which were mostly vibe-coded demos, which was really cool to see.

321
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:06,860
We did a discussion section.

322
00:08:06,980 --> 00:08:11,260
We did some news section and kind of open-ended Socratic method-style discussions,

323
00:08:11,260 --> 00:08:15,200
discussions, which I think the vibe worked really well to kind of get everybody involved.

324
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:16,600
So I was a fan.

325
00:08:16,660 --> 00:08:17,660
I'll definitely be coming back to him.

326
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:18,000
Yeah.

327
00:08:18,060 --> 00:08:22,880
And to me, by far, the coolest part was Matt, I guess, he was here to run a race with Steve,

328
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:28,080
but also kindly decided to do a little vibe coding in addition to that.

329
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,780
It was, I mean, the demos were by far my favorite part.

330
00:08:30,860 --> 00:08:31,560
We had a couple of demos.

331
00:08:31,980 --> 00:08:33,940
Matt's was my favorite because he was live vibe coding.

332
00:08:33,940 --> 00:08:38,560
And so, you know, I definitely still have not put in the time, like certainly DK and probably

333
00:08:38,560 --> 00:08:39,300
Steve at this point.

334
00:08:39,300 --> 00:08:46,400
So it was just really cool for me to see exactly what Matt's prompts were when stuff, because inevitably stuff kept failing.

335
00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:50,720
And it was really valuable to see him kind of bang his head against it and be like, all right, no, actually, we're going to fix it.

336
00:08:50,740 --> 00:08:51,560
And here's how we fix it.

337
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:53,780
For example, it was very interesting to me.

338
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:55,640
So he's a repl at Maxi, which is interesting.

339
00:08:56,060 --> 00:08:59,180
But within there, he made some very specific calls.

340
00:08:59,340 --> 00:09:03,740
He was using Lexi and their sidecar, I guess, API so that they could do lightning payments with that.

341
00:09:03,940 --> 00:09:07,820
And he was extremely prescriptive, like access the Lexi SDK at this address.

342
00:09:07,820 --> 00:09:09,360
he was like download the binary

343
00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,840
it was like extremely precise

344
00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:13,640
and I didn't realize you had to be that precise

345
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:14,660
that was pretty cool

346
00:09:14,660 --> 00:09:16,360
you don't have to be

347
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,440
part of what I would suggest

348
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,100
I don't know if it's right for the builder form

349
00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:23,180
Matt and I were just talking about maybe

350
00:09:23,180 --> 00:09:24,940
doing live streams to try to help

351
00:09:24,940 --> 00:09:26,860
explain this stuff a little better

352
00:09:26,860 --> 00:09:28,800
but Matt came to builder

353
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,660
with a lot of work done

354
00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:32,360
he had pre-worked and had the thing working

355
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,080
so he knew he'd sort of gone through a bunch of iterations

356
00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:36,600
and figured out how to do that

357
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:42,640
And then he showed us, in a sense, it was just a prompt, but it was a prompt he had put a lot of effort into.

358
00:09:42,860 --> 00:09:42,940
Right.

359
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:48,480
And he did that because we gave him a time constraint of 15 minutes, right?

360
00:09:48,620 --> 00:09:48,920
Right, right, right.

361
00:09:49,020 --> 00:09:55,280
And he couldn't have done truly zero to that in under 15.

362
00:09:55,360 --> 00:10:00,940
Although I think he did Vibeco to a simpler application, literally, for the first time in under 15 minutes.

363
00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:01,300
Yeah.

364
00:10:02,460 --> 00:10:03,840
This was more sophisticated.

365
00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:05,460
So I think there's this trade-off there.

366
00:10:05,460 --> 00:10:07,540
like you live streamed

367
00:10:07,540 --> 00:10:08,580
earlier this week

368
00:10:08,580 --> 00:10:09,900
and for over an hour

369
00:10:09,900 --> 00:10:11,360
and it was more

370
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:12,740
opening up

371
00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:15,000
like truly starting at zero

372
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:15,700
and

373
00:10:15,700 --> 00:10:16,440
like make their

374
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:17,480
unanticipated

375
00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:18,300
problems

376
00:10:18,300 --> 00:10:18,880
and then

377
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:20,620
that's definitely

378
00:10:20,620 --> 00:10:21,920
more educational I think

379
00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:23,580
but just takes more time

380
00:10:23,580 --> 00:10:23,860
yeah

381
00:10:23,860 --> 00:10:25,360
I mean I think there's room for both

382
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:26,920
I love the idea of you and Matt

383
00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:27,700
and whoever else

384
00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:28,920
doing a lot more live streams

385
00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:29,540
like I think that's the

386
00:10:29,540 --> 00:10:30,460
like we've talked about this

387
00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:30,720
in the show

388
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:31,860
like the single highest

389
00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:32,960
ROI thing

390
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:33,920
that can be done for Bitcoin

391
00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:34,620
right now probably

392
00:10:34,620 --> 00:10:36,500
is just showing people how to vibe go with Bitcoin.

393
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:38,220
But I would still love to see,

394
00:10:38,300 --> 00:10:38,900
even if it's simpler,

395
00:10:39,180 --> 00:10:41,640
to try at Builder a zero to one demo.

396
00:10:41,980 --> 00:10:42,440
I think that'd be cool.

397
00:10:42,780 --> 00:10:42,880
Yeah.

398
00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:44,540
So yeah, I was thinking we should,

399
00:10:44,700 --> 00:10:46,660
at Builder, we should start with somebody.

400
00:10:46,740 --> 00:10:48,480
I'm happy to volunteer myself as a tribute,

401
00:10:49,060 --> 00:10:51,180
but start with like an empty notepad

402
00:10:51,180 --> 00:10:52,500
and kind of like improv comedy.

403
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:53,500
Have somebody call out.

404
00:10:53,780 --> 00:10:54,220
100%.

405
00:10:54,220 --> 00:10:55,460
And have people kind of like,

406
00:10:55,700 --> 00:10:56,480
yeah, yeah, let's do that.

407
00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:57,420
How about if it does this?

408
00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:59,360
And kind of go through the process

409
00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,740
to show from like literally zero,

410
00:11:01,860 --> 00:11:03,120
not like a constructed prompt,

411
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:04,860
no constructed anything,

412
00:11:04,860 --> 00:11:06,240
but just go from literally zero

413
00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:07,420
and walk through the process

414
00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:07,740
and be like,

415
00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:08,700
what about this?

416
00:11:08,860 --> 00:11:10,380
Oh, here's how I'll prompt it differently.

417
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,200
I mean, to truly make it that way,

418
00:11:13,300 --> 00:11:14,480
someone from the audience

419
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,080
could suggest what do we want to build

420
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:17,700
and not have it planted,

421
00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:19,020
but truly, you know,

422
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:20,540
improv basically, right?

423
00:11:20,700 --> 00:11:22,260
But then have a skilled prompter

424
00:11:22,260 --> 00:11:24,100
driving it so that it goes

425
00:11:24,100 --> 00:11:26,420
kind of as fast as possible.

426
00:11:26,620 --> 00:11:28,560
But then everyone would really,

427
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,700
I think, be inspired by that

428
00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:32,140
and see how it's done.

429
00:11:32,140 --> 00:11:35,780
I could actually see this becoming like a pretty big niche in San Francisco,

430
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,320
like replacing improv and improv comedy.

431
00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:40,840
Like given the amount of vibe coders here,

432
00:11:40,940 --> 00:11:41,460
like someone,

433
00:11:41,620 --> 00:11:43,480
someone shared a tweet this morning saying like,

434
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:43,820
uh,

435
00:11:43,860 --> 00:11:44,120
you know,

436
00:11:45,900 --> 00:11:46,220
live,

437
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,860
like live streaming coding has been a thing,

438
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,840
but it's for most feels pretty boring watching someone program a computer

439
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,960
because it's just so tedious and takes so long to achieve.

440
00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,760
But vibe coding like is 10 X or a hundred X accelerant.

441
00:12:00,940 --> 00:12:01,240
Yes.

442
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:05,260
so that it gets within the realm of like possibly being entertaining.

443
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:05,580
Yeah.

444
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:06,420
Certainly it's,

445
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,400
it certainly is in the realm of like,

446
00:12:08,420 --> 00:12:10,520
if you're motivated to learn and be educated,

447
00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,060
then like it,

448
00:12:12,140 --> 00:12:13,100
it's good.

449
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,500
And is it actually a new like e-sports?

450
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:16,000
Yeah,

451
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:16,620
absolutely.

452
00:12:16,740 --> 00:12:16,880
I mean,

453
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:17,640
like I think this,

454
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:17,920
I mean,

455
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,580
I think Twitch or something maybe newer than Twitch should absolutely take advantage of this.

456
00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:22,660
And one cool thing,

457
00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:22,860
I mean,

458
00:12:22,940 --> 00:12:25,800
I don't know what the latest with Zapstream is.

459
00:12:25,860 --> 00:12:26,700
I know we still have to figure that out.

460
00:12:26,740 --> 00:12:27,240
By the way,

461
00:12:27,620 --> 00:12:28,560
shout out to our,

462
00:12:28,560 --> 00:12:29,760
our stand-up producer today,

463
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:36,520
who's helping uh we're in the process of getting a lightning wallet uh set up correctly for uh for

464
00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:40,720
nostril so don't worry that is coming we are going to make that happen and i think our next step which

465
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,820
we've been talking about for a while we're already on fountain as well so if you want to stream us

466
00:12:43,820 --> 00:12:49,560
this sweet sweet bitcoin you can make that happen uh a little plug but um we should use app stream

467
00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:53,240
and i like as app streams like a live nostril based client where people can watch you in video

468
00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:58,160
and stream you bitcoin while they watch i mean to me like all these people that are doing nostril

469
00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:02,360
stuff like Alex Gleason with, I think, Shakespeare now, which came out of Ditto. It's like a vibe

470
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:07,160
coding set of libraries for Noster and Bitcoin. Albee's got their vibe coding platform. All of

471
00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:11,020
you guys should be doing this and doing it where people can stream you Bitcoin. And all of a sudden,

472
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,500
who knows, maybe that catches lightning in a bottle because people are like, it's way more

473
00:13:14,500 --> 00:13:17,620
interesting to do it on these platforms where real money is being exchanged. Oh, by the way,

474
00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,940
did that money just 10x in value? That's kind of interesting.

475
00:13:19,940 --> 00:13:26,220
I want to come back to, on a previous show, we've talked about vibe jamming where you have

476
00:13:26,220 --> 00:13:28,020
multiple humans

477
00:13:28,020 --> 00:13:30,480
working together on

478
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,040
VibeCoding. And I think

479
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,480
Repl.it has some feature for this.

480
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:35,540
It's still on.

481
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:37,360
Matt shared

482
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,600
with us, I think, DK, but

483
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,160
I opened the tab and I haven't sadly

484
00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,320
engaged yet, but I want to play with that because I think that's

485
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,080
super interesting approach. And just

486
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,820
from an entrepreneurial perspective,

487
00:13:48,780 --> 00:13:49,820
whether that's added

488
00:13:49,820 --> 00:13:52,320
to Repl.it or

489
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,240
other feature or if it's a new startup, I think that

490
00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,640
could be in a whole new category of emerging growth.

491
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:57,920
And then the one we just talked about,

492
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,000
which is like live streaming.

493
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:01,340
Yeah.

494
00:14:01,420 --> 00:14:01,760
And like,

495
00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:06,760
maybe there's enough different here that like a startup could,

496
00:14:07,060 --> 00:14:08,760
could beat Twitch.

497
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:09,040
Yeah.

498
00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:09,360
You know,

499
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:09,960
if,

500
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:10,640
if there's enough,

501
00:14:10,980 --> 00:14:11,740
enough difference there.

502
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:13,580
So I think for any,

503
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,980
like anyone wanting to start something and,

504
00:14:15,980 --> 00:14:17,100
and looking for ideas,

505
00:14:17,100 --> 00:14:20,020
I think that could be a really interesting category or just,

506
00:14:20,020 --> 00:14:20,900
you know,

507
00:14:21,060 --> 00:14:24,020
expand that or like rebel it should do it or goose.

508
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,500
So let's talk a little bit about Goose.

509
00:14:27,380 --> 00:14:30,880
But before we jump into that, because there's a lot I want to say, there's two quick things I want to do on that.

510
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:36,360
One takeaway from last night that I guess whenever, I don't know if Alex owns the meetup or whoever does.

511
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:42,300
One thing I think we should definitely do is a woman in the audience asked for an RFP tab.

512
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:47,700
Because we have so many good ideas on the show and so many ideas that come out of the meetup itself where it's like, hey, wouldn't that be a dope product?

513
00:14:47,780 --> 00:14:50,460
Who wants to build Twitch for a live stream or whatever?

514
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:53,020
so I think that is a really good thing

515
00:14:53,020 --> 00:14:54,780
we should definitely sort of maintain for listeners

516
00:14:54,780 --> 00:14:56,900
of the pod but also people that come to the

517
00:14:56,900 --> 00:14:58,440
meetup and the second thing

518
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,800
and maybe we can talk about Goose first but I do

519
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,760
want to make sure we talk about what would it

520
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,940
look like to have the multiplayer

521
00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:06,700
version control for

522
00:15:06,700 --> 00:15:08,740
vibe coding I know Pablo was sort of playing with this on

523
00:15:08,740 --> 00:15:10,780
Nostra but I never really got exactly where that was going

524
00:15:10,780 --> 00:15:12,580
I actually think the

525
00:15:12,580 --> 00:15:14,160
Twitch idea

526
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,860
maybe and I don't know it could

527
00:15:16,860 --> 00:15:18,760
be a Twitch like thing but there's

528
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:19,780
There's something here.

529
00:15:20,180 --> 00:15:26,320
It's actually one of the questions I left the group with was Matt did all this work, made a great prompt.

530
00:15:26,460 --> 00:15:26,620
Yeah.

531
00:15:27,100 --> 00:15:29,780
And then that prompt kind of disappeared into the ether.

532
00:15:29,780 --> 00:15:35,580
And so he then took the effort to publish it in a tweet today, which is much better than not.

533
00:15:35,740 --> 00:15:35,980
Zero, yeah.

534
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:37,400
But then also that's going to disappear.

535
00:15:37,540 --> 00:15:39,640
So I almost feel like I wanted to encourage that.

536
00:15:39,940 --> 00:15:40,760
Creating a library.

537
00:15:41,060 --> 00:15:41,560
A library.

538
00:15:41,660 --> 00:15:48,300
And maybe that starts on a GitHub, a Presidio Bitcoin builder GitHub page.

539
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,740
that like any good prompt that gets demoed

540
00:15:51,740 --> 00:15:53,620
is available to anybody in the community who wants,

541
00:15:53,780 --> 00:15:54,840
and you just pull it off there,

542
00:15:54,900 --> 00:15:56,600
just copy, paste into Replit or whatever you want.

543
00:15:56,740 --> 00:15:56,940
Yeah.

544
00:15:57,100 --> 00:15:58,160
It's at least a first step,

545
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,680
but I could imagine that whether it's a live stream thing

546
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:02,700
or something almost like,

547
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,320
I've been kind of calling it like GitHub for prompts,

548
00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:06,780
something, you know,

549
00:16:06,980 --> 00:16:09,440
GitHub is probably a fine enough GitHub for prompts,

550
00:16:09,540 --> 00:16:11,900
but there's probably stuff you could do even better

551
00:16:11,900 --> 00:16:12,920
that really make, you know,

552
00:16:12,940 --> 00:16:13,840
it's good for collaboration,

553
00:16:13,980 --> 00:16:16,140
but not necessarily very specific to prompting.

554
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,600
You could imagine, I want, maybe this is Goose,

555
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:26,400
But I kind of want like something that's so open that my whole chat session just get published out to like somewhere that everybody can use.

556
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,120
Kind of like open source prompting and chatting.

557
00:16:29,500 --> 00:16:36,140
And then that, I think, unlocks a whole new data set that will make all of these open source tools AI tools.

558
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,420
And I think there's something like there's so many cool ways you could play with this.

559
00:16:39,820 --> 00:16:47,140
So one of the first projects we got excited about with Nostra early on was, and I think you even contributed the domain name to this, Highlighter.

560
00:16:47,140 --> 00:16:53,300
highlighter.com which is one of pablo's many projects and pablo is the greatest mad scientist

561
00:16:53,300 --> 00:16:59,100
of all time um but um but highlighter i mean what was cool about it was like for those of you who

562
00:16:59,100 --> 00:17:05,100
remember uh showing my age now uh rap genius like from 15 years ago or something um you know it was

563
00:17:05,100 --> 00:17:09,360
like got a lot of traction around hey how do we annotate you know hip-hop lyrics and then eventually

564
00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:12,100
the idea was how do we annotate the lab and i remember andreessen talked about we didn't have

565
00:17:12,100 --> 00:17:15,220
an annotation layer for the web and it never really broke out of there they try to do poetry

566
00:17:15,220 --> 00:17:19,340
and stuff. And you know, it's fine, but it never, it never achieved its potential. We thought maybe

567
00:17:19,340 --> 00:17:23,280
early in the days of Nostra, yeah, we've already escaped philosophy. It's fucking here, baby. And

568
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:28,500
then it's like, we're at a plateau. There'll be another wave, but maybe, maybe something like this

569
00:17:28,500 --> 00:17:32,780
is maybe the tectonic plates are shifting enough that there is an opportunity now. Cause you can

570
00:17:32,780 --> 00:17:36,720
imagine, imagine you just spit out all of your open source stuff and maybe there's a model that

571
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,140
can help you sift through it and find what you want. But then imagine like with like the good

572
00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:45,880
prompts you like, you can basically go and highlight and zap and resurface parts of the

573
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:50,500
prompt that you love. So as an example, in Matt's thing last night, maybe I highlighted and say,

574
00:17:50,700 --> 00:17:55,600
okay, I don't want to build any of the actual product experiences that he's building,

575
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,800
but I definitely want Lightning payments that work. Okay, I'm going to highlight,

576
00:17:59,380 --> 00:18:07,320
use the Lexi sidecar SDK and unzip the file. I never in a trillion years would have thought to

577
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,380
ask the bot to unzip the file.

578
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:10,040
Okay, it makes sense.

579
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:10,900
So I highlight that.

580
00:18:10,980 --> 00:18:13,120
I'm like, boom, like zap it, you know, whatever.

581
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:14,140
A lot of Bitcoin.

582
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,300
This is something that everyone should use

583
00:18:16,300 --> 00:18:16,840
in their projects.

584
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:18,220
And then you can start to service it every time.

585
00:18:18,260 --> 00:18:18,920
So I think there's something,

586
00:18:19,020 --> 00:18:21,120
some mashup with the Nostra open source

587
00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:22,040
highlighter ecosystem

588
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,580
and this like vibe prompting library.

589
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:25,760
Pablo, if you're listening,

590
00:18:26,100 --> 00:18:29,000
or if there are any other Nostra superstars listening,

591
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,180
this is, I think it's worth experimenting.

592
00:18:31,180 --> 00:18:34,000
My experience with LLMs has me convinced

593
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,680
that that concept of highlighting

594
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,680
that I'd explored for a while, public explore, et cetera,

595
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,340
is completely unnecessary

596
00:18:40,340 --> 00:18:43,660
because the tools should be able to figure out

597
00:18:43,660 --> 00:18:46,000
what is used, what is getting people success.

598
00:18:46,120 --> 00:18:47,460
Like if you have the data of like,

599
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,480
I prompt and it fails, I prompt and it fails,

600
00:18:49,580 --> 00:18:50,980
I prompt and it succeeds

601
00:18:50,980 --> 00:18:52,320
and I stop prompting along that path

602
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:53,660
and I start prompting along other paths,

603
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,940
that's actually signal to an LLM session

604
00:18:56,940 --> 00:18:57,780
that the thing worked.

605
00:18:57,780 --> 00:18:59,340
Or it's at least a candidate

606
00:18:59,340 --> 00:19:01,460
for what it would look like if the thing worked.

607
00:19:01,740 --> 00:19:03,860
If you look across hundreds or thousands of sessions,

608
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,540
you can probably identify which prompts

609
00:19:06,540 --> 00:19:09,860
work and cause people to stop prompting in that direction.

610
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,300
And then you can just use those ones for them. So you don't actually need a human to do it. You just need

611
00:19:14,300 --> 00:19:17,980
people to run through the examples. So this is a really interesting point.

612
00:19:18,340 --> 00:19:22,280
And I generally agree. However, I think, I don't know

613
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,180
exactly how this is going to play out, but my guess is there's going to be almost two categories of ranking

614
00:19:26,180 --> 00:19:29,960
data. There's going to be sort of implicit and explicit. And

615
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,960
then there's a value, which this is the piece that I wrote back in 2022 before

616
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,620
LLMs really popped off, before Nostra popped off, how to disrupt Google. The idea was that

617
00:19:37,620 --> 00:19:41,880
information should be in marketplaces, like literally like just, you know, identity zaps

618
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:46,060
information. That's like a signal to see where it ranks. My guess is it's going to be some combo

619
00:19:46,060 --> 00:19:50,480
of these things. Like 100% agree LLMs get a lot of implicit data. Like, okay, this is what people

620
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,480
are vibe cutting with the most. Boom. Like let's, let's suck that into our library. But at the same

621
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,200
time, I don't know exactly where it's going to go, but I think there's always going to be a rule,

622
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,520
like a role for explicit human taste. And maybe the AI is like interact too. Maybe they're also

623
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:07,760
zapping information. I know they can suck a lot of that taste in implicitly, but I think there's

624
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,680
going to be some, like, I think it's going to go that direction super hard. And then there's going

625
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,380
to be some kind of drawback to like, no, actually we want the humans to like be more explicit in

626
00:20:15,380 --> 00:20:19,600
curating the data sets that the AI is used. I don't know where that balance is going to come

627
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:24,800
though. I think the more that you try vibe coding, the more that you'll be convinced that it's still

628
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,960
human taste. I don't think the humans are going away anytime soon, but I think it's the human

629
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:34,720
working with the computer, getting what you want, and then just moving on. And you get enough of that

630
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:39,220
happening across enough libraries, examples, et cetera. I think the machine can figure that out.

631
00:20:39,220 --> 00:20:44,780
I think I agree it's human. I just think it's human and it's taste. It's just the human decides

632
00:20:44,780 --> 00:20:48,980
what to work on. Their taste tells what to work on, but not explicit signals of like or highlight.

633
00:20:49,500 --> 00:20:51,140
Implicit just takes everything.

634
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:57,260
Yeah. It's just too easy. Even like I was telling during Matt's demo, he was being very polite and

635
00:20:57,980 --> 00:21:00,540
You know, here's a section where I think we have an error here.

636
00:21:00,700 --> 00:21:01,780
We should, you know, investigate it.

637
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:02,100
Just drop there.

638
00:21:02,300 --> 00:21:03,900
I just copy paste it.

639
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,240
I screenshot it and just drop the thing and be like, figure it out.

640
00:21:06,380 --> 00:21:08,240
Yeah, you don't even copy paste.

641
00:21:08,300 --> 00:21:12,320
So we have like, we're anchored on these sort of like old ideas, like traditional ideas.

642
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,460
I would just like to say I potentially side with Matt on this one.

643
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,480
You should try actually vibe coding.

644
00:21:18,860 --> 00:21:19,300
I should.

645
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:21,360
And you'll have more authority on this topic.

646
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:23,260
I know what he's going to say.

647
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:24,920
He wants to get on the good side of the AI.

648
00:21:25,140 --> 00:21:25,460
Absolutely.

649
00:21:25,460 --> 00:21:27,340
you guys are being assholes for our future.

650
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:28,380
I for one welcome.

651
00:21:28,660 --> 00:21:29,420
Yeah, no, no, no.

652
00:21:29,500 --> 00:21:30,260
Like, I mean, believe me,

653
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:31,780
I say please and thank you, man.

654
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:32,740
Like, seriously,

655
00:21:32,900 --> 00:21:33,900
I know this is going to be fucked up.

656
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,380
I remember that there was a kid in my high school,

657
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,120
very quiet, kind of like creepy.

658
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:39,800
I was always super polite to that guy

659
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:40,780
if that day ever came.

660
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,760
I know who's walking away, right?

661
00:21:43,820 --> 00:21:45,260
So I'm just saying,

662
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,180
I would be nice to the ass.

663
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:48,040
If we get started,

664
00:21:48,120 --> 00:21:49,640
I didn't give my take on Builder

665
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,040
and since I'm the only one that went to Builder.

666
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:51,340
That's true.

667
00:21:51,780 --> 00:21:53,400
And Steve actually did all the work for him.

668
00:21:53,780 --> 00:21:54,700
And I did all the work.

669
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:55,080
Okay.

670
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,560
Just a few additional observations I had.

671
00:21:59,140 --> 00:22:00,800
We had 25 to 30 people.

672
00:22:01,260 --> 00:22:02,840
That's a great turnout.

673
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:04,780
It's only our second one.

674
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:05,540
It's the middle of summer.

675
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,080
So really happy with the turnout.

676
00:22:08,540 --> 00:22:09,900
Seven or eight women as well.

677
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,780
And anyone who's been to Bitcoin meetups,

678
00:22:12,020 --> 00:22:13,780
there's very few women that show up.

679
00:22:13,980 --> 00:22:17,220
And so I was happy to see quite a few women show up.

680
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,700
Also, the women, the newcomers to the space,

681
00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:23,200
or to the meetup,

682
00:22:24,020 --> 00:22:25,020
everyone engaged.

683
00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:25,480
Yeah, yeah.

684
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,200
So they're very broad engaged.

685
00:22:27,380 --> 00:22:28,500
So I was happy that we created

686
00:22:28,500 --> 00:22:29,420
a welcoming environment

687
00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:30,780
that people felt comfortable

688
00:22:30,780 --> 00:22:32,320
sharing their opinion,

689
00:22:32,540 --> 00:22:33,120
sharing their view,

690
00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:34,000
adding an idea,

691
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:34,940
asking a question.

692
00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:35,680
We saw that.

693
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:36,380
Having the microphones

694
00:22:36,380 --> 00:22:37,520
fly all around the room.

695
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:38,420
It's not a show.

696
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:38,980
It's a good community.

697
00:22:39,100 --> 00:22:41,060
That's definitely what we're going for.

698
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,380
It's not supposed to be us

699
00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:44,320
just preaching to everyone.

700
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:45,640
So I thought that was excellent.

701
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,060
Yeah, great.

702
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:47,200
And throughout,

703
00:22:47,540 --> 00:22:49,560
whether it be the vibe-coded demos,

704
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:50,900
we had a startup showcase

705
00:22:50,900 --> 00:22:52,880
and then we had various discussions

706
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,940
throughout all that just great audience engagement.

707
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:55,460
That was great.

708
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,260
I agree with you guys.

709
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,700
The best part of last night

710
00:22:58,700 --> 00:23:01,140
was the Vibe Coder demos and the startup.

711
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,660
We did three different Vibe Coded apps

712
00:23:05,660 --> 00:23:06,820
and then a startup showcase.

713
00:23:07,060 --> 00:23:09,000
That was, we budgeted like half an hour.

714
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:09,920
We spent an hour on it,

715
00:23:09,940 --> 00:23:11,540
but it was a high quality hour.

716
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:13,600
Nobody was bored.

717
00:23:13,700 --> 00:23:14,460
Nobody's on their phone.

718
00:23:14,460 --> 00:23:16,340
The discussion part,

719
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,200
I think you guys were a little disappointed with it.

720
00:23:18,260 --> 00:23:19,820
It wasn't as good as the first one,

721
00:23:19,820 --> 00:23:24,700
but um but we it's having said that there was still like good engagement on it yeah i think

722
00:23:24,700 --> 00:23:29,860
that's a function of the equality of the topic so um i think so what we want to improve for next

723
00:23:29,860 --> 00:23:49,544
time is have uh more and better topics to choose from um and so like we work together to do that i think it could also help if we kind of tee it up a little more like i think you know it not a neg on the process but i think it was like hey here a tweet what do you guys think and i think if we instead said some context here a belief

724
00:23:49,544 --> 00:23:55,444
about the world here's like there's there's this pro and these cons and like are you pro or almost

725
00:23:55,444 --> 00:24:01,284
actually who is yes like do you know the i think is it the is it the oxford debate format you know

726
00:24:01,284 --> 00:24:02,284
the talks for a debate format?

727
00:24:02,964 --> 00:24:03,504
I heard it.

728
00:24:03,744 --> 00:24:04,884
You kind of,

729
00:24:05,084 --> 00:24:06,204
you kind of take a position

730
00:24:06,204 --> 00:24:07,044
and you say,

731
00:24:07,164 --> 00:24:07,904
everybody in the audience

732
00:24:07,904 --> 00:24:09,584
vote pro or con.

733
00:24:09,704 --> 00:24:09,984
So it has,

734
00:24:10,064 --> 00:24:11,624
you can sort of segment yourself

735
00:24:11,624 --> 00:24:12,904
along these binary lines.

736
00:24:12,944 --> 00:24:13,924
You can't be in the middle somewhere.

737
00:24:14,464 --> 00:24:15,184
And then,

738
00:24:15,404 --> 00:24:15,624
you know,

739
00:24:15,624 --> 00:24:16,524
there's people who

740
00:24:16,524 --> 00:24:18,004
debate the topic.

741
00:24:18,004 --> 00:24:18,864
And then at the end,

742
00:24:19,444 --> 00:24:20,784
you solicit,

743
00:24:21,164 --> 00:24:22,724
are you pro or con

744
00:24:22,724 --> 00:24:23,044
from the,

745
00:24:23,044 --> 00:24:23,424
you know,

746
00:24:23,504 --> 00:24:24,104
the participants?

747
00:24:24,604 --> 00:24:25,004
And,

748
00:24:25,104 --> 00:24:25,364
you know,

749
00:24:25,384 --> 00:24:26,484
that's more of an audience style,

750
00:24:26,664 --> 00:24:28,544
but you solicit pro or con.

751
00:24:28,824 --> 00:24:29,504
And then you,

752
00:24:29,664 --> 00:24:31,264
the winner is the person

753
00:24:31,264 --> 00:24:32,384
who changed the most minds,

754
00:24:32,624 --> 00:24:34,784
not the person who has the most votes

755
00:24:34,784 --> 00:24:35,724
for their position.

756
00:24:36,124 --> 00:24:36,604
Yeah, that's cool.

757
00:24:36,744 --> 00:24:37,404
And I like that idea,

758
00:24:37,444 --> 00:24:38,384
and we could also incorporate

759
00:24:38,384 --> 00:24:39,604
the lightning voting in there too.

760
00:24:39,884 --> 00:24:40,184
We could actually.

761
00:24:40,184 --> 00:24:41,744
Yeah, that's one we didn't talk about.

762
00:24:41,824 --> 00:24:44,124
So one of the Vibe-coded apps

763
00:24:44,124 --> 00:24:46,404
was one that came out of nowhere.

764
00:24:47,324 --> 00:24:49,404
David's someone who...

765
00:24:49,404 --> 00:24:50,064
Not this David.

766
00:24:50,384 --> 00:24:51,444
Yeah, we had...

767
00:24:51,444 --> 00:24:51,804
I'm DK.

768
00:24:51,984 --> 00:24:53,604
We had three Davids last night

769
00:24:53,604 --> 00:24:55,064
all engaging in great ways.

770
00:24:55,064 --> 00:24:55,924
So one of the Davids,

771
00:24:57,244 --> 00:25:00,704
he's a long-time traditional engineer.

772
00:25:00,704 --> 00:25:02,244
So, you know, he knows how to program a computer.

773
00:25:03,204 --> 00:25:05,704
And he loves the idea of Builder.

774
00:25:05,804 --> 00:25:07,204
So he volunteered to help out.

775
00:25:08,364 --> 00:25:09,944
And so he's helped out in various ways.

776
00:25:10,024 --> 00:25:15,384
But then the surprise way for me, like right before the meetup last night, he's like, hey, I vibe coded this app to add voting.

777
00:25:15,384 --> 00:25:20,244
And you can like send, you know, Bitcoin as part of your vote for the different topics.

778
00:25:20,324 --> 00:25:21,204
I'm like, that sounds amazing.

779
00:25:21,264 --> 00:25:24,044
I'm like, let's try it out tonight and see how it goes.

780
00:25:24,044 --> 00:25:30,204
And actually kind of unplanned, it worked out quite well while people were eating pizza and chatting.

781
00:25:30,704 --> 00:25:34,324
You could like scan a QR code, go to go to this website and then vote on topics.

782
00:25:34,324 --> 00:25:37,884
And we had, you know, over a dozen people engaged there.

783
00:25:38,124 --> 00:25:40,064
I mean, definitely we had some with 12 votes.

784
00:25:40,144 --> 00:25:42,344
So like at least 12 people engaged in that.

785
00:25:42,524 --> 00:25:45,264
And it helped us rank the topic.

786
00:25:45,384 --> 00:25:52,064
So I think as we prepare topics for each week, we don't really need to care about the length or the number of topics.

787
00:25:52,184 --> 00:25:53,144
I put a lot there.

788
00:25:53,144 --> 00:25:54,824
you know we should

789
00:25:54,824 --> 00:25:57,424
as curators we should make sure

790
00:25:57,424 --> 00:25:59,304
that they are all going to be

791
00:25:59,304 --> 00:26:01,264
like reasonable topics to discuss

792
00:26:01,264 --> 00:26:03,044
and valuable but then let

793
00:26:03,044 --> 00:26:04,744
the participants vote

794
00:26:04,744 --> 00:26:07,344
and rank. That turned out really great

795
00:26:07,344 --> 00:26:09,484
so that was a vibe coded app. Matt had his

796
00:26:09,484 --> 00:26:10,824
And on that app by the way

797
00:26:10,824 --> 00:26:12,744
we didn't get to talk about this

798
00:26:12,744 --> 00:26:15,264
I was thinking about this when I was walking home at night

799
00:26:15,264 --> 00:26:16,764
but I feel like that app is

800
00:26:16,764 --> 00:26:19,504
kind of the live participation

801
00:26:19,504 --> 00:26:21,604
thing of Builder

802
00:26:21,604 --> 00:26:27,144
but to me that feels like the hub around which all kinds of other useful software to empower

803
00:26:27,144 --> 00:26:31,584
our builder community i think the miami builder community happened last night too and like

804
00:26:31,584 --> 00:26:35,764
builder communities around the world as they sprout up to have like a piece of software that

805
00:26:35,764 --> 00:26:40,384
helps you run all aspects of the builder so like let's say i have a topic that i want to submit

806
00:26:40,384 --> 00:26:46,524
for a month out i should do that today submit it and then whenever people want to look at it

807
00:26:46,524 --> 00:26:49,404
whenever they register for the event they can look at it and be like oh i'd like to see that

808
00:26:49,404 --> 00:26:51,124
that, that, that. I don't really care about that, whatever.

809
00:26:51,564 --> 00:26:53,004
I feel like this could be almost like,

810
00:26:53,184 --> 00:26:54,804
I think we used Meetup for registration.

811
00:26:55,304 --> 00:26:57,444
Maybe we can make that all smooth and integrated

812
00:26:57,444 --> 00:26:59,304
because it's basically software is kind of free

813
00:26:59,304 --> 00:27:00,604
to develop these days, right?

814
00:27:00,924 --> 00:27:03,264
I agree. So we'll, there's definitely

815
00:27:03,264 --> 00:27:05,004
ways to integrate it better. We're going to

816
00:27:05,004 --> 00:27:06,284
do that. You mentioned

817
00:27:06,284 --> 00:27:08,964
Builder Miami as well. And so

818
00:27:08,964 --> 00:27:11,204
we already mentioned in the show that

819
00:27:11,204 --> 00:27:13,264
there was going to be a Builder. We already have like another

820
00:27:13,264 --> 00:27:15,284
location pop up and we anticipate

821
00:27:15,284 --> 00:27:17,344
this will spring up all over the

822
00:27:17,344 --> 00:27:19,224
world. But it's exciting that

823
00:27:19,224 --> 00:27:20,824
there's already another builder

824
00:27:20,824 --> 00:27:22,544
in the world, in Miami.

825
00:27:22,684 --> 00:27:24,064
They had their first meetup last night

826
00:27:24,064 --> 00:27:27,064
and they shared a summary with us

827
00:27:27,064 --> 00:27:28,584
and it went super well.

828
00:27:28,784 --> 00:27:30,724
They had like 16 people attend,

829
00:27:30,864 --> 00:27:31,564
so good attendance.

830
00:27:32,344 --> 00:27:33,724
High quality folks there too.

831
00:27:33,964 --> 00:27:35,944
Like Joao showed up

832
00:27:35,944 --> 00:27:37,964
and he's co-founder of OpenNode

833
00:27:37,964 --> 00:27:39,084
and now he has a new startup.

834
00:27:39,324 --> 00:27:41,504
So like a very experienced builder

835
00:27:41,504 --> 00:27:42,444
in the Bitcoin space.

836
00:27:43,384 --> 00:27:44,804
And Stephen DeLorm was there

837
00:27:44,804 --> 00:27:45,464
and like Connor

838
00:27:45,464 --> 00:27:47,704
and like so many great people were there.

839
00:27:47,704 --> 00:27:50,784
and it sounds like they had a similar experience to us

840
00:27:50,784 --> 00:27:52,604
in terms of great audience engagement

841
00:27:52,604 --> 00:27:54,624
and they vibe-coded stuff as well.

842
00:27:54,864 --> 00:27:55,284
Yeah, it's great.

843
00:27:55,424 --> 00:27:56,844
One other thought that came out of that,

844
00:27:57,144 --> 00:27:58,444
I really like your idea, DK,

845
00:27:58,564 --> 00:28:01,584
of having a hub that can share software

846
00:28:01,584 --> 00:28:03,284
and potentially topics and voting even

847
00:28:03,284 --> 00:28:04,684
across all of the builders.

848
00:28:06,684 --> 00:28:08,404
I mean, obviously I loved that

849
00:28:08,404 --> 00:28:09,884
the voting mechanism last night

850
00:28:09,884 --> 00:28:10,804
came from the audience

851
00:28:10,804 --> 00:28:12,804
and from someone local, that's really cool.

852
00:28:13,204 --> 00:28:15,464
But he was asking about ways to make it better

853
00:28:15,464 --> 00:28:19,264
and should I prioritize votes more

854
00:28:19,264 --> 00:28:23,384
or should I prioritize Bitcoin that's Vings apped more?

855
00:28:23,644 --> 00:28:24,604
And what's the formula there?

856
00:28:24,724 --> 00:28:25,344
What's the formula there?

857
00:28:25,644 --> 00:28:26,724
And I mean, yes,

858
00:28:26,784 --> 00:28:28,004
we could have a lot of different takes on this.

859
00:28:28,084 --> 00:28:28,764
Maybe it's an Osterbase,

860
00:28:28,824 --> 00:28:29,864
so it's more open and I love that.

861
00:28:30,144 --> 00:28:32,744
But I do think that maybe the simplest

862
00:28:32,744 --> 00:28:35,044
and fastest way to get something like this off the ground,

863
00:28:35,184 --> 00:28:36,404
more sophisticated-wise,

864
00:28:36,484 --> 00:28:37,924
would be to do a stacker news territory.

865
00:28:38,324 --> 00:28:39,584
Because Cain's already got so much of that

866
00:28:39,584 --> 00:28:40,404
baked in the background

867
00:28:40,404 --> 00:28:41,424
where you can have reputation,

868
00:28:41,584 --> 00:28:43,104
accrue value over time.

869
00:28:43,104 --> 00:28:45,364
And he's got his somewhat complex,

870
00:28:45,464 --> 00:28:50,124
like algorithms for figuring out how to decay votes and you know how you gain reputation um so

871
00:28:50,124 --> 00:28:54,064
perhaps that's another interesting thing to explore be actually creating a stacker news territory for

872
00:28:54,064 --> 00:28:57,324
builder and that that's like one way we could surface what people want to talk yeah so maybe

873
00:28:57,324 --> 00:29:02,864
it's like the the topics go like global builder is a territory on stacker news and that's more like

874
00:29:02,864 --> 00:29:08,224
the topics the information that would be interesting yes to the builder communities worldwide um i think

875
00:29:08,224 --> 00:29:13,104
the stuff that the other david did is almost to me it feels like it's more like an event

876
00:29:13,104 --> 00:29:15,964
management, kind of live event,

877
00:29:16,364 --> 00:29:18,304
event pre-reg, event topics,

878
00:29:18,384 --> 00:29:19,764
maybe you can pull from Global Builder

879
00:29:19,764 --> 00:29:20,944
or from Stacker News or something.

880
00:29:22,044 --> 00:29:23,124
So to be explored.

881
00:29:24,264 --> 00:29:25,984
Great. So we covered Builder

882
00:29:25,984 --> 00:29:27,924
really well, I think. One of the topics

883
00:29:27,924 --> 00:29:29,824
out of that, I want to talk about Goose

884
00:29:29,824 --> 00:29:31,064
a little bit. You want to talk about Goose, I think.

885
00:29:31,284 --> 00:29:32,004
We'll talk about it.

886
00:29:33,004 --> 00:29:33,864
And then it's,

887
00:29:35,724 --> 00:29:37,824
well, so Goose is one of several

888
00:29:37,824 --> 00:29:39,984
different front-end

889
00:29:39,984 --> 00:29:41,824
software interfaces that you can engage

890
00:29:41,824 --> 00:29:44,524
different LLMs, right? And it's

891
00:29:44,524 --> 00:29:45,204
open source.

892
00:29:46,324 --> 00:29:48,264
And what was just recently announced

893
00:29:48,264 --> 00:29:50,244
as well is Block,

894
00:29:50,384 --> 00:29:52,304
who created Goose, has now

895
00:29:52,304 --> 00:29:54,244
created a new group that's very

896
00:29:54,244 --> 00:29:56,124
much like Spiral, the group I run,

897
00:29:56,484 --> 00:29:57,544
and that it's independent

898
00:29:57,544 --> 00:29:59,824
of commercial interest by Block.

899
00:30:00,424 --> 00:30:02,084
And I think they're starting off of five

900
00:30:02,084 --> 00:30:04,244
developers focused

901
00:30:04,244 --> 00:30:05,824
on Goose open source software development.

902
00:30:05,824 --> 00:30:07,924
So just a further commitment to

903
00:30:07,924 --> 00:30:09,784
open source

904
00:30:09,784 --> 00:30:11,804
Goose and have this

905
00:30:11,804 --> 00:30:17,084
independent group of engineers and a grant program was announced similar to what similar to what

906
00:30:17,084 --> 00:30:24,144
spiral has done for six years now so i think that's super exciting um and you know i think

907
00:30:24,144 --> 00:30:32,364
there's interest by goose to um like right now goose i think is optimized for like automating

908
00:30:32,364 --> 00:30:39,344
workflows and whether you're at a corporation or um if you're programming um like a lot of the

909
00:30:39,344 --> 00:30:41,584
Vibe Coding Jack has done has been done through

910
00:30:41,584 --> 00:30:43,804
Goose. And just to clarify

911
00:30:43,804 --> 00:30:45,784
in case people are unaware of Goose

912
00:30:45,784 --> 00:30:47,364
you may be aware of like a cursor

913
00:30:47,364 --> 00:30:49,584
or a windsurf. Those are sort of closed

914
00:30:49,584 --> 00:30:51,584
source commercial IDE like

915
00:30:51,584 --> 00:30:53,584
things you know VS Code forks and stuff

916
00:30:53,584 --> 00:30:55,164
or VS Code itself

917
00:30:55,164 --> 00:30:57,544
with plugins but Goose

918
00:30:57,544 --> 00:30:59,504
is sort of you know in the same vein

919
00:30:59,504 --> 00:31:01,784
as that kind of thing but a lot more just the chat

920
00:31:01,784 --> 00:31:03,784
and not really trying to kind of

921
00:31:03,784 --> 00:31:05,604
also present the code. So think of it as

922
00:31:05,604 --> 00:31:07,104
like an open source

923
00:31:07,104 --> 00:31:09,264
very chat focused kind of

924
00:31:09,344 --> 00:31:13,964
competitor to the closed source cursors and windsurf of the world just to kind of set some

925
00:31:13,964 --> 00:31:18,364
context yeah and in general i think i mean my own experience and talking like with you and a few

926
00:31:18,364 --> 00:31:24,404
other people um is that it's uh it's not as good of out-of-box experience relative to some of the

927
00:31:24,404 --> 00:31:29,364
commercial uh ones um but it is quite powerful like if you put in if you put in the effort you

928
00:31:29,364 --> 00:31:34,764
can like you can create really great stuff so i think um you know the optimist view there is just

929
00:31:34,764 --> 00:31:35,744
it's just a matter of time.

930
00:31:36,124 --> 00:31:36,784
And because it's open,

931
00:31:36,924 --> 00:31:37,924
it'll probably get

932
00:31:37,924 --> 00:31:38,924
it real fast.

933
00:31:38,944 --> 00:31:39,944
The hope is open source.

934
00:31:40,164 --> 00:31:40,764
So it'll get,

935
00:31:41,344 --> 00:31:41,904
and certainly

936
00:31:41,904 --> 00:31:43,144
Locke's hope

937
00:31:43,144 --> 00:31:43,984
is that it's not just

938
00:31:43,984 --> 00:31:44,764
a block thing.

939
00:31:44,864 --> 00:31:45,884
It's a public good.

940
00:31:46,064 --> 00:31:47,104
Lots of other contributors.

941
00:31:47,744 --> 00:31:48,624
And so I am excited

942
00:31:48,624 --> 00:31:49,984
to see this new initiative

943
00:31:49,984 --> 00:31:51,144
that's Spiral-like,

944
00:31:51,364 --> 00:31:52,004
independent group,

945
00:31:52,304 --> 00:31:53,224
starting off with like

946
00:31:53,224 --> 00:31:54,604
five experienced engineers,

947
00:31:54,724 --> 00:31:55,784
but having this grant program

948
00:31:55,784 --> 00:31:56,164
as well.

949
00:31:56,164 --> 00:31:56,704
So cool.

950
00:31:56,704 --> 00:31:58,264
Do we have a Steve Lee equivalent?

951
00:31:58,464 --> 00:31:59,704
Do we know who it is?

952
00:31:59,704 --> 00:32:00,924
There is a lead.

953
00:32:01,004 --> 00:32:01,664
Okay, it's not announced yet.

954
00:32:01,664 --> 00:32:02,524
I don't know if it's announced yet.

955
00:32:02,904 --> 00:32:04,544
But it's not a Steve Lee.

956
00:32:04,764 --> 00:32:13,884
but there's a lead um interestingly he uh worked at google way back when we worked at google so

957
00:32:13,884 --> 00:32:20,484
early early google guy google's having a comeback um see your twitter on that yeah so i i'm in touch

958
00:32:20,484 --> 00:32:24,684
with him and i'm like hey you know i'm happy to give advice when you know anytime i can i can help

959
00:32:24,684 --> 00:32:28,884
out since i've been doing this for six years now at the company um so i think that's really exciting

960
00:32:28,884 --> 00:32:33,584
and then one thing i talked to him about is which we talked about work here yeah it's like you know

961
00:32:33,584 --> 00:32:40,504
Presidia Bitcoin, yes, it has Bitcoin in the title and it's Bitcoin, but as people know, first of all, in this show, we talk about AI a lot.

962
00:32:41,504 --> 00:32:45,104
We talk about the intersection of AI and Bitcoin.

963
00:32:45,304 --> 00:32:46,964
We talk about open source all the fucking time.

964
00:32:46,984 --> 00:32:47,644
Open source.

965
00:32:47,644 --> 00:32:55,684
And so, like the hackathon we hosted here in May, AI was a big part of it in multiple ways.

966
00:32:55,684 --> 00:32:57,364
using AI tools,

967
00:32:57,484 --> 00:32:59,164
like half the participants

968
00:32:59,164 --> 00:33:00,524
Vibe-coded their apps

969
00:33:00,524 --> 00:33:03,004
and half of the top four

970
00:33:03,004 --> 00:33:04,144
were Vibe-coded apps.

971
00:33:05,364 --> 00:33:06,044
And then also,

972
00:33:06,284 --> 00:33:10,324
we talk a lot about AI agents

973
00:33:10,324 --> 00:33:11,624
using Bitcoin as payments.

974
00:33:11,804 --> 00:33:13,224
So there's so much intersection

975
00:33:13,224 --> 00:33:14,724
between those two topics.

976
00:33:15,404 --> 00:33:17,544
I think it's a natural home

977
00:33:17,544 --> 00:33:19,284
for people who want to work

978
00:33:19,284 --> 00:33:20,724
on open source AI,

979
00:33:21,164 --> 00:33:22,084
open source Goose,

980
00:33:22,544 --> 00:33:25,204
that they'd be welcome members here

981
00:33:25,204 --> 00:33:28,304
and like really have a rich environment

982
00:33:28,304 --> 00:33:29,744
to do their work,

983
00:33:29,944 --> 00:33:32,284
be around other open source advocates.

984
00:33:32,764 --> 00:33:33,004
So cool.

985
00:33:33,384 --> 00:33:33,984
So yeah.

986
00:33:34,164 --> 00:33:35,724
I remember when I brought Adrian by here,

987
00:33:35,864 --> 00:33:37,884
he specifically wanted to come by

988
00:33:37,884 --> 00:33:39,724
to see what this felt like

989
00:33:39,724 --> 00:33:40,184
because he was like,

990
00:33:40,304 --> 00:33:42,684
I kind of want to do an open source,

991
00:33:43,484 --> 00:33:46,164
you know, kind of an AI focused open source

992
00:33:46,164 --> 00:33:47,424
kind of workspace.

993
00:33:47,584 --> 00:33:48,544
It's not about startups,

994
00:33:48,664 --> 00:33:50,184
but it's more about helping support

995
00:33:50,184 --> 00:33:51,024
those kinds of contributors.

996
00:33:51,144 --> 00:33:52,544
So maybe this actually becomes

997
00:33:52,544 --> 00:33:54,984
the kind of place that he was envisioning.

998
00:33:54,984 --> 00:33:59,384
Actually, I mean, I hear through the grapevine, there are more and more parts of the building opening up.

999
00:33:59,464 --> 00:34:00,984
So maybe the next move, we just expand.

1000
00:34:01,204 --> 00:34:01,624
Yeah, well.

1001
00:34:01,884 --> 00:34:02,544
The yoga studio?

1002
00:34:03,664 --> 00:34:05,084
The yoga studio is safe.

1003
00:34:05,144 --> 00:34:05,324
Don't worry.

1004
00:34:05,324 --> 00:34:05,484
Okay.

1005
00:34:05,864 --> 00:34:12,344
So the five full-time engineers on that team, I already checked.

1006
00:34:12,484 --> 00:34:14,684
They don't live in the Bay Area, so I don't think they're going to live here.

1007
00:34:14,824 --> 00:34:15,244
Not yet.

1008
00:34:15,424 --> 00:34:16,264
But not yet.

1009
00:34:17,324 --> 00:34:18,824
Well, the lead, I've definitely invited.

1010
00:34:18,964 --> 00:34:20,304
I think he's going to come visit this fall.

1011
00:34:20,384 --> 00:34:20,564
Okay.

1012
00:34:20,564 --> 00:34:23,384
So then he'll see firsthand how great Presider Bitcoin is.

1013
00:34:23,384 --> 00:34:26,424
but for people listening or if you know

1014
00:34:26,424 --> 00:34:28,384
folks that would be interested in a

1015
00:34:28,384 --> 00:34:30,224
grant to work on open source Goose

1016
00:34:30,224 --> 00:34:31,944
first of all

1017
00:34:31,944 --> 00:34:34,544
awesome and then if you happen to be in the Bay Area

1018
00:34:34,544 --> 00:34:35,964
or want to live in the Bay Area

1019
00:34:35,964 --> 00:34:37,344
and you want to be

1020
00:34:37,344 --> 00:34:40,324
a great space to work from with other

1021
00:34:40,324 --> 00:34:41,704
awesome people check out

1022
00:34:41,704 --> 00:34:44,144
Can people just hop on like the GitHub

1023
00:34:44,144 --> 00:34:46,284
and are there a set of lists

1024
00:34:46,284 --> 00:34:48,104
or roadmap ideas of

1025
00:34:48,104 --> 00:34:50,044
kind of what features or what big projects

1026
00:34:50,044 --> 00:34:51,744
or topics Goose is about to undertake

1027
00:34:52,664 --> 00:34:53,644
I believe so.

1028
00:34:53,644 --> 00:34:56,144
I think they just published,

1029
00:34:57,324 --> 00:35:00,244
like, here's the top five priorities right now.

1030
00:35:00,364 --> 00:35:01,744
So I think it might be nice to be able

1031
00:35:01,744 --> 00:35:03,024
to just sort of get a sense

1032
00:35:03,024 --> 00:35:04,644
not of just what the tool feels like,

1033
00:35:04,684 --> 00:35:06,004
but also kind of where this is going

1034
00:35:06,004 --> 00:35:07,804
to start to figure out if it's something.

1035
00:35:07,804 --> 00:35:09,824
I would also like to piggyback on that

1036
00:35:09,824 --> 00:35:12,084
and just say that one of the things

1037
00:35:12,084 --> 00:35:14,424
I'm increasingly bullish on

1038
00:35:14,424 --> 00:35:16,604
is thinking about Nostre as the agentic web.

1039
00:35:17,464 --> 00:35:19,084
And so part of the reason I'm busy,

1040
00:35:19,084 --> 00:35:23,904
a little alpha drop is uh for for lps in the fund you'll be getting the update later it's finally

1041
00:35:23,904 --> 00:35:32,204
done finally it's gonna violate the sec oh shit uh i mean uh no no don't drop too much alpha here

1042
00:35:32,204 --> 00:35:37,904
okay not too much alpha but um uh but when now now it's when you give it to i know exactly

1043
00:35:37,904 --> 00:35:44,464
setting you up one of the things that i'm um yeah that i'm increasingly sure of is that if

1044
00:35:44,464 --> 00:35:47,724
nostril is going to win i think it's going to be for something new and i think agentic ai is the

1045
00:35:47,724 --> 00:35:52,644
I'm most bullish on. And so obviously Jack is doing a lot of his like Nostra vibe coding stuff

1046
00:35:52,644 --> 00:35:56,724
with Goose as well. All of the like Nostra guys that are vibe coding are using Goose.

1047
00:35:57,184 --> 00:36:01,844
So I think that in addition to the intersection between sort of Bitcoin and Goose, I think people

1048
00:36:01,844 --> 00:36:07,684
that want to use, you know, open identity and open data transfer on the web, tons of opportunity

1049
00:36:07,684 --> 00:36:11,704
there with Nostra. And a shout out to Gigi and Pablo. You know, they have their sovereign

1050
00:36:11,704 --> 00:36:14,664
engineering cohort, which they run in Madera. I think they're about to do number five. It's

1051
00:36:14,664 --> 00:36:16,764
awesome how many of these they've done. By the way,

1052
00:36:16,884 --> 00:36:18,664
they have a really, I forget the name

1053
00:36:18,664 --> 00:36:20,484
of it now, but pretty out there podcast. I think it's

1054
00:36:20,484 --> 00:36:22,864
probably one of my top three favorite podcasts

1055
00:36:22,864 --> 00:36:24,544
in the world right now. So shout out to, I think

1056
00:36:24,544 --> 00:36:26,864
Gigi's been doing even more of that. What's the name of it?

1057
00:36:27,044 --> 00:36:28,464
I don't even remember, but it's...

1058
00:36:28,464 --> 00:36:29,184
Is it Sovereign Engineering?

1059
00:36:30,224 --> 00:36:32,964
Somehow that's in the description or something, but it's

1060
00:36:32,964 --> 00:36:34,624
by pirates for pirates, so

1061
00:36:34,624 --> 00:36:36,764
it's good. But I would love to see us

1062
00:36:36,764 --> 00:36:38,864
get a little bit of that Sovereign Engineering energy

1063
00:36:38,864 --> 00:36:40,784
here at Presidio Bitcoin. So guys that are

1064
00:36:40,784 --> 00:36:42,864
building and vibe-coding with Nostra, with Bitcoin

1065
00:36:42,864 --> 00:36:44,604
and trying to build a free web.

1066
00:36:44,664 --> 00:36:45,504
I'd love to see that.

1067
00:36:46,304 --> 00:36:49,764
And just to summarize some product roadmap ideas for Goose.

1068
00:36:50,404 --> 00:37:00,924
Well, we've talked about prompt engineering and prompt skill development and prompt sharing and prompt education, all those things.

1069
00:37:01,484 --> 00:37:03,544
And creating a library.

1070
00:37:03,824 --> 00:37:05,584
Is that on Nostra, GitHub, whatever?

1071
00:37:05,944 --> 00:37:06,604
Maybe not.

1072
00:37:06,744 --> 00:37:09,864
Maybe it's the data stored on Nostra and it's integrated into Goose.

1073
00:37:09,984 --> 00:37:10,724
It's just part of Goose.

1074
00:37:10,804 --> 00:37:13,184
That's one thing that could be facilitated.

1075
00:37:13,184 --> 00:37:14,944
We just talked about live streaming.

1076
00:37:16,264 --> 00:37:20,224
And maybe that's like a separate project,

1077
00:37:20,384 --> 00:37:23,144
but integrated into Goose in a seamless way.

1078
00:37:23,364 --> 00:37:25,644
And awareness is created through Goose.

1079
00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:28,144
So I think there's a lot.

1080
00:37:28,224 --> 00:37:32,004
And then one thing I've talked to them a little bit about is privacy.

1081
00:37:32,404 --> 00:37:35,384
Like I love what Maple AI is doing and OpenSecret.

1082
00:37:36,624 --> 00:37:38,404
Now with Goose, it's client-side

1083
00:37:38,404 --> 00:37:40,344
and you can run a model on your computer too.

1084
00:37:40,424 --> 00:37:41,384
So I mean, one way to get privacy

1085
00:37:41,384 --> 00:37:43,064
is just run a model in your computer,

1086
00:37:43,064 --> 00:37:44,864
run goose on your computer and then it's all local.

1087
00:37:45,764 --> 00:37:47,484
But if you want to use a beefier

1088
00:37:47,484 --> 00:37:49,184
or either, you know,

1089
00:37:49,244 --> 00:37:51,484
one, if you don't want to set that up,

1090
00:37:51,624 --> 00:37:52,884
if it's too much friction,

1091
00:37:53,064 --> 00:37:55,044
or two, if you want to run an

1092
00:37:55,044 --> 00:37:57,064
open source model that is

1093
00:37:57,064 --> 00:37:59,324
too beefy to run on your computer

1094
00:37:59,324 --> 00:38:00,804
is not beefy enough, then

1095
00:38:00,804 --> 00:38:02,284
not enough pull-ups.

1096
00:38:02,284 --> 00:38:05,264
I think you need like two of the ultra threes.

1097
00:38:05,504 --> 00:38:07,124
Then, you know, what's the privacy

1098
00:38:07,124 --> 00:38:08,484
story there?

1099
00:38:08,784 --> 00:38:11,164
And it depends on the application. Like you're saying

1100
00:38:11,164 --> 00:38:12,524
you want all your prompts to be

1101
00:38:12,524 --> 00:38:14,104
like literally public, right?

1102
00:38:14,104 --> 00:38:17,784
So obviously for those use cases,

1103
00:38:18,244 --> 00:38:19,044
privacy doesn't really,

1104
00:38:19,304 --> 00:38:20,024
I mean, it's like literally

1105
00:38:20,024 --> 00:38:20,864
the opposite of privacy.

1106
00:38:21,644 --> 00:38:23,624
But certainly for corporate stuff,

1107
00:38:23,744 --> 00:38:24,564
for like health,

1108
00:38:24,704 --> 00:38:25,704
like if any kind of,

1109
00:38:25,784 --> 00:38:26,884
any individual who's one

1110
00:38:26,884 --> 00:38:28,324
to ask health questions,

1111
00:38:28,444 --> 00:38:29,004
things like that,

1112
00:38:29,384 --> 00:38:30,964
is going to be very privacy sensitive.

1113
00:38:31,284 --> 00:38:32,164
Okay, a couple thoughts

1114
00:38:32,164 --> 00:38:33,084
that just came to mind with that.

1115
00:38:33,204 --> 00:38:34,784
One, I was actually just chatting

1116
00:38:34,784 --> 00:38:35,804
with Tony this morning

1117
00:38:35,804 --> 00:38:36,844
without, again,

1118
00:38:37,044 --> 00:38:38,064
dropping too much alpha.

1119
00:38:38,604 --> 00:38:39,484
Shout out to those guys.

1120
00:38:39,584 --> 00:38:40,124
They are like,

1121
00:38:40,244 --> 00:38:41,684
they went through a major pivot

1122
00:38:41,684 --> 00:38:43,104
and like, I'm so proud of them.

1123
00:38:43,584 --> 00:38:45,164
You know, Tony and Marks,

1124
00:38:45,224 --> 00:38:46,944
but I mean, obviously Tony's been there for the whole ride.

1125
00:38:47,024 --> 00:38:49,144
Like they're really getting product market fair right now.

1126
00:38:49,184 --> 00:38:50,544
And it's so exciting to see like privacy.

1127
00:38:50,684 --> 00:38:52,084
Like we always ask, does anyone ever really care?

1128
00:38:52,164 --> 00:38:53,104
Like the answer is yes.

1129
00:38:53,464 --> 00:38:55,624
And like with every new Sam Altman interview that drops,

1130
00:38:55,784 --> 00:38:58,144
like revenue goes to the roof.

1131
00:38:58,684 --> 00:39:00,584
So just shout out to those guys.

1132
00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:01,364
The ultimate marketing tool.

1133
00:39:01,404 --> 00:39:02,004
It really is.

1134
00:39:02,184 --> 00:39:03,724
And so I'm super happy with that.

1135
00:39:03,804 --> 00:39:04,964
So shout out to those guys.

1136
00:39:05,364 --> 00:39:07,364
Number two, I do think,

1137
00:39:07,364 --> 00:39:10,424
and I wonder if maybe there's some connection here

1138
00:39:10,424 --> 00:39:12,164
between Presidio Bitcoin and Goose

1139
00:39:12,164 --> 00:39:13,804
where I still think one of the things we're missing.

1140
00:39:13,904 --> 00:39:15,044
And maybe it's too early in the curve.

1141
00:39:15,144 --> 00:39:16,504
Maybe it's not commoditized enough yet.

1142
00:39:16,804 --> 00:39:17,684
But I want to reiterate,

1143
00:39:17,844 --> 00:39:19,544
I do not trust even the open source models

1144
00:39:19,544 --> 00:39:21,304
until I can see the information it's trained on.

1145
00:39:21,344 --> 00:39:22,204
I don't care about the weights.

1146
00:39:22,264 --> 00:39:22,964
That's a great start.

1147
00:39:23,364 --> 00:39:25,464
I want to see a fully open source model

1148
00:39:25,464 --> 00:39:26,884
where I can go and audit and see,

1149
00:39:27,224 --> 00:39:28,584
show me every piece of information

1150
00:39:28,584 --> 00:39:29,864
that this was trained on.

1151
00:39:30,764 --> 00:39:33,184
And it would be nice to see an excluded list too.

1152
00:39:33,264 --> 00:39:33,424
Yes.

1153
00:39:33,424 --> 00:39:34,924
Like what was intentionally excluded.

1154
00:39:35,084 --> 00:39:36,684
I want to see everything in there

1155
00:39:36,684 --> 00:39:38,684
because I am not at all yet convinced

1156
00:39:38,684 --> 00:39:39,984
that if you don't have,

1157
00:39:39,984 --> 00:39:42,904
that the weights themselves are far better than nothing.

1158
00:39:43,024 --> 00:39:44,804
But if you don't know exactly what it's trained on,

1159
00:39:45,044 --> 00:39:46,704
I don't believe that we don't know what the risks are.

1160
00:39:46,704 --> 00:39:49,444
I mean, I agree, but like, how are you going to do that?

1161
00:39:49,484 --> 00:39:50,804
Because there's too much information for you.

1162
00:39:50,904 --> 00:39:53,244
So you'll have to use another AI.

1163
00:39:53,444 --> 00:39:53,904
Yeah, exactly.

1164
00:39:53,904 --> 00:39:56,004
And then it's a little bit of a bootstrapping problem.

1165
00:39:56,004 --> 00:39:58,484
It is, but you can have multiple bots like checking this

1166
00:39:58,484 --> 00:40:01,204
and be like, okay, well, if I don't necessarily totally trust this one,

1167
00:40:01,304 --> 00:40:03,184
I have Claude running and I also have XAI.

1168
00:40:03,804 --> 00:40:04,944
Unless they're all colluding with each other.

1169
00:40:04,944 --> 00:40:06,244
The rabbit hole runs deep here.

1170
00:40:06,244 --> 00:40:11,004
Yeah. If the big, if the, the big reset is all coordinated then.

1171
00:40:13,684 --> 00:40:18,084
You heard it here first. Um, but, but, but, but in all seriousness, I don't know what is the right

1172
00:40:18,084 --> 00:40:22,704
approach to that, but this seems like, I mean, it's probably extremely expensive project, but it

1173
00:40:22,704 --> 00:40:27,784
seems like this is perhaps civilizationally, like I could just see, I mean, we're going to talk about

1174
00:40:27,784 --> 00:40:32,124
the, the sort of like, which way Western ain't on turning point we're all at. Like there, there,

1175
00:40:32,124 --> 00:40:35,304
there is a big turning point in the world. And this is one of the key cruxes of my mind.

1176
00:40:35,304 --> 00:40:37,284
if you don't have that open model.

1177
00:40:37,444 --> 00:40:38,684
Like open source Goose is great.

1178
00:40:38,804 --> 00:40:39,964
Open private model, great.

1179
00:40:40,184 --> 00:40:41,444
But unless we see the data set,

1180
00:40:41,564 --> 00:40:42,624
I think in 50 years,

1181
00:40:42,684 --> 00:40:42,944
we're going to be like,

1182
00:40:43,004 --> 00:40:44,124
oh shit, that was a mistake.

1183
00:40:44,764 --> 00:40:46,044
Speaking of the big reset,

1184
00:40:46,504 --> 00:40:47,684
it's a good transition

1185
00:40:47,684 --> 00:40:48,364
to our next topic.

1186
00:40:48,604 --> 00:40:50,664
Because I think you mentioned big reset,

1187
00:40:51,184 --> 00:40:51,604
kind of joking,

1188
00:40:51,744 --> 00:40:52,124
but like...

1189
00:40:52,784 --> 00:40:53,724
Are we talking micro strategy?

1190
00:40:53,864 --> 00:40:54,044
Yeah.

1191
00:40:54,744 --> 00:40:55,904
We're starting to say the strategy

1192
00:40:55,904 --> 00:40:58,304
and like their new offering,

1193
00:40:58,964 --> 00:41:00,564
which I think you were the first

1194
00:41:00,564 --> 00:41:01,984
that I heard observe

1195
00:41:01,984 --> 00:41:04,404
that maybe it's a stable coin play.

1196
00:41:04,404 --> 00:41:05,664
and then

1197
00:41:05,664 --> 00:41:07,064
like you think

1198
00:41:07,064 --> 00:41:07,864
I believe I dropped that

1199
00:41:07,864 --> 00:41:08,484
in the chat actually

1200
00:41:08,484 --> 00:41:08,904
oh was it you

1201
00:41:08,904 --> 00:41:09,764
no no it was me

1202
00:41:09,764 --> 00:41:10,064
you did too

1203
00:41:10,064 --> 00:41:10,984
I got it before you

1204
00:41:10,984 --> 00:41:11,544
okay

1205
00:41:11,544 --> 00:41:12,164
read the history

1206
00:41:12,164 --> 00:41:12,704
that's fair

1207
00:41:12,704 --> 00:41:13,524
but I will say

1208
00:41:13,524 --> 00:41:14,544
shout out to Max

1209
00:41:14,544 --> 00:41:16,944
Max thinks strategy

1210
00:41:16,944 --> 00:41:17,764
might be like

1211
00:41:17,764 --> 00:41:18,624
the most valuable company

1212
00:41:18,624 --> 00:41:19,124
in the world

1213
00:41:19,124 --> 00:41:19,864
of all time

1214
00:41:19,864 --> 00:41:20,184
ever

1215
00:41:20,184 --> 00:41:20,584
and then

1216
00:41:20,584 --> 00:41:21,844
so let's talk

1217
00:41:21,844 --> 00:41:22,564
let's talk about that

1218
00:41:22,564 --> 00:41:23,804
like come on

1219
00:41:23,804 --> 00:41:24,764
that's crazy talk

1220
00:41:24,764 --> 00:41:25,504
like how could they

1221
00:41:25,504 --> 00:41:26,104
become that

1222
00:41:26,104 --> 00:41:26,824
and then

1223
00:41:26,824 --> 00:41:29,084
is that good or bad

1224
00:41:29,084 --> 00:41:29,944
for Bitcoin

1225
00:41:29,944 --> 00:41:30,724
is that good or bad

1226
00:41:30,724 --> 00:41:31,564
for the world

1227
00:41:31,564 --> 00:41:32,164
like

1228
00:41:32,164 --> 00:41:34,224
does it lead to like

1229
00:41:34,404 --> 00:41:36,264
you know, economic collapse.

1230
00:41:37,344 --> 00:41:38,804
That's why you made the big reset comment.

1231
00:41:38,944 --> 00:41:41,224
But like, are we, does it set up,

1232
00:41:41,324 --> 00:41:44,644
now that Bitcoin is worth a whole lot more

1233
00:41:44,644 --> 00:41:46,884
than in past bear markets,

1234
00:41:47,084 --> 00:41:50,104
and it's being integrated so much more deeply

1235
00:41:50,104 --> 00:41:52,284
in the existing financial system,

1236
00:41:53,204 --> 00:41:55,644
and we'll hear your story about how it gets,

1237
00:41:55,764 --> 00:41:59,384
you know, 10x bigger, 50x bigger, 100x bigger, whatever.

1238
00:42:00,164 --> 00:42:01,184
Then, you know, is it,

1239
00:42:01,384 --> 00:42:03,724
then we're entering like too big to fail territory

1240
00:42:03,724 --> 00:42:05,104
and like, what if it does,

1241
00:42:05,344 --> 00:42:06,864
what if it's too big to fail,

1242
00:42:06,944 --> 00:42:07,584
but it does fail

1243
00:42:07,584 --> 00:42:09,304
and we have no recourse.

1244
00:42:09,424 --> 00:42:10,384
There's no bailout.

1245
00:42:10,504 --> 00:42:11,224
You know, then the big,

1246
00:42:11,384 --> 00:42:12,764
so, take it away.

1247
00:42:12,884 --> 00:42:14,284
So I'll offer my perspective

1248
00:42:14,284 --> 00:42:15,404
and then on the stable coin thing,

1249
00:42:15,444 --> 00:42:16,344
I'm actually a little

1250
00:42:16,344 --> 00:42:17,224
sort of less than the wheat.

1251
00:42:17,264 --> 00:42:18,124
So I would love to hear

1252
00:42:18,124 --> 00:42:19,044
your take on that as well.

1253
00:42:19,144 --> 00:42:20,884
But for me, you know,

1254
00:42:20,944 --> 00:42:21,744
this has been a journey

1255
00:42:21,744 --> 00:42:23,044
we've talked about on PBJ

1256
00:42:23,044 --> 00:42:24,644
over the last several months.

1257
00:42:24,784 --> 00:42:25,464
You know, I started off.

1258
00:42:25,464 --> 00:42:26,724
I think it was on our first episode, right?

1259
00:42:27,104 --> 00:42:27,624
Literally our first episode.

1260
00:42:27,624 --> 00:42:28,464
That's right, our very first episode.

1261
00:42:28,464 --> 00:42:29,624
But we huddled out there.

1262
00:42:30,064 --> 00:42:31,024
And I will say, I mean,

1263
00:42:31,084 --> 00:42:32,324
I don't have a ton of microstrategy

1264
00:42:32,324 --> 00:42:32,944
or anything like that

1265
00:42:32,944 --> 00:42:34,244
and obviously not financial advice,

1266
00:42:34,324 --> 00:42:35,184
doing research, blah, blah, blah.

1267
00:42:35,304 --> 00:42:37,504
But like I was forced buyer of MicroStrategy

1268
00:42:37,504 --> 00:42:39,444
in my Roth IRA originally

1269
00:42:39,444 --> 00:42:41,184
because Vanguard wouldn't let me buy the ETF.

1270
00:42:41,304 --> 00:42:41,924
So thank you, Vanguard.

1271
00:42:42,544 --> 00:42:42,844
And-

1272
00:42:42,844 --> 00:42:43,104
Forced.

1273
00:42:43,624 --> 00:42:44,944
Interesting definition of forced.

1274
00:42:45,004 --> 00:42:47,364
Yeah, well, I probably would have bought iBit

1275
00:42:47,364 --> 00:42:48,644
or Bitwise or whatever.

1276
00:42:48,644 --> 00:42:49,664
So you could have bought NVIDIA.

1277
00:42:51,044 --> 00:42:52,364
If you understand what's happening in the world,

1278
00:42:52,564 --> 00:42:53,204
that's a definite-

1279
00:42:53,204 --> 00:42:54,504
Yeah, not financial advice.

1280
00:42:54,544 --> 00:42:55,384
Not financial advice.

1281
00:42:55,544 --> 00:42:57,404
But anyway, so that kind of at least got me.

1282
00:42:57,444 --> 00:42:58,164
And it's interesting because like,

1283
00:42:58,204 --> 00:42:59,404
I feel like with Bitcoin as well,

1284
00:42:59,444 --> 00:43:00,604
like once you own a little bit,

1285
00:43:00,664 --> 00:43:01,924
you're like, okay, well now I want to read more.

1286
00:43:01,984 --> 00:43:02,584
I'll start learning more.

1287
00:43:02,584 --> 00:43:12,944
And it's been, I don't know, a year long or whatever it's been now, almost a year long journey to becoming both on my investment hat, a MicroStrategy maximalist, and on my Bitcoiner hat, terrified.

1288
00:43:13,644 --> 00:43:15,384
So here's how I see things happening.

1289
00:43:16,744 --> 00:43:21,984
What MicroStrategy has done is they have figured out that they're basically calling a bluff.

1290
00:43:22,084 --> 00:43:25,424
And I think Danny said this very nicely in a tweet on the entire fiat financial system.

1291
00:43:25,624 --> 00:43:30,684
They're basically saying, and you've said this too in many ways, that the entire fiat financial system is radically overpriced.

1292
00:43:30,684 --> 00:43:35,264
NVIDIA is worth over like whatever, 30,000 Bitcoin or 30 million Bitcoin. There's not 30

1293
00:43:35,264 --> 00:43:38,464
million Bitcoin that will ever be in existence. Like MicroStrategy is calling the bluff that

1294
00:43:38,464 --> 00:43:43,824
everything in fiat land is overpriced. Equities, real estate, debt, all of it. It's all overpriced.

1295
00:43:44,144 --> 00:43:47,444
There is no way that any of these companies should be trading 50X earnings. It just doesn't

1296
00:43:47,444 --> 00:43:52,424
make sense unless they're the store value, right? And so MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, who that

1297
00:43:52,424 --> 00:43:58,324
man is a savant, he's going to go down as the Michael Jordan of finance. It's unbelievable as

1298
00:43:58,324 --> 00:44:02,584
he's calling bluff and he's accelerating his own pace. What he's doing is, you know, everyone's

1299
00:44:02,584 --> 00:44:05,944
debating, oh, well, should MicroStrategy be trading in MNAV or not? It's like, dude, that's

1300
00:44:05,944 --> 00:44:10,364
just so the wrong question. That's missing the entire point. What Saylor is doing is he's a

1301
00:44:10,364 --> 00:44:14,904
company and he's delivering value to the market. When you buy an equity, it's on, you're projecting

1302
00:44:14,904 --> 00:44:20,084
the future, what the cash flows or what the balance sheet is a better way of saying that

1303
00:44:20,084 --> 00:44:24,244
in this new world of that company is going to look like, you know, years, decades into the future.

1304
00:44:24,244 --> 00:44:54,224
And so forget does MicroStrategy trading at a premium to MNAP, the better question is, what is the service that MicroStrategy is offering to the market? Well, the service it's offering to the market is, it's taking Bitcoin, it's over collateralizing that Bitcoin in a loan, so it's just literally saying, here's the Bitcoin as the base, now we're going to go find product market fit for every pool of capital out there that exists that maybe wants some of this Bitcoin exposure, but because of the volatility of Bitcoin, because of mandates, because of regulations, whatever reasons they can't buy Bitcoin,

1305
00:44:54,244 --> 00:44:57,204
directly. So we're going to offer them this product instead. And we've talked about that a

1306
00:44:57,204 --> 00:45:00,304
lot on the show, right? Like, you know, first he did the convertible debt, then he came out with

1307
00:45:00,304 --> 00:45:03,664
these perpetual preferred equities that are targeting, you know, bond managers and portfolio

1308
00:45:03,664 --> 00:45:07,804
managers that, you know, we know a lot of these guys that are orange pill, but they can't buy any

1309
00:45:07,804 --> 00:45:12,504
other way. Cool. And he's offering rates of return on all of these instruments, you know,

1310
00:45:12,504 --> 00:45:16,064
and if you think about it, he's trying to go after different sort of risk appetites,

1311
00:45:16,384 --> 00:45:21,444
different tranches in the stack, just like we've seen with, you know, you know, the classic,

1312
00:45:21,444 --> 00:45:25,564
I don't know, CDOs and CDO squared and all this stuff from traditional finance.

1313
00:45:26,024 --> 00:45:30,104
But the difference is it's not collateralized by homes that are way overvalued, where they're

1314
00:45:30,104 --> 00:45:34,804
giving loans for someone in Miami to buy six homes and they make $50,000 a year, which

1315
00:45:34,804 --> 00:45:35,664
of course is going to collapse.

1316
00:45:36,044 --> 00:45:41,164
Instead, he's over-leveraged this with 7x or more of the Bitcoin he needs, and in some

1317
00:45:41,164 --> 00:45:43,784
cases, way more to make the minimum payments on all the offerings.

1318
00:45:44,004 --> 00:45:45,504
So you can go deeper in the weeds.

1319
00:45:45,664 --> 00:45:47,724
I highly recommend the punter Jeff dude.

1320
00:45:47,804 --> 00:45:49,524
I've been binging a lot of his podcasts.

1321
00:45:49,524 --> 00:45:54,464
That guy is sharp AF and he knows, I mean, he'll spell it out in great detail.

1322
00:45:55,144 --> 00:45:59,884
The big story this week though, and the reason we're talking about this is so far he's been

1323
00:45:59,884 --> 00:46:01,544
attacking the bond market.

1324
00:46:01,784 --> 00:46:06,064
He's been attacking the equity market, $300 trillion and $100 trillion markets respectively.

1325
00:46:06,924 --> 00:46:11,284
But I'm just starting to wrap my head around what happened this week because this is the

1326
00:46:11,284 --> 00:46:13,584
most gangster move I've ever seen in my entire life.

1327
00:46:14,004 --> 00:46:16,124
Honestly, hats off to Saylor.

1328
00:46:16,124 --> 00:46:22,444
I have to believe he's probably working with the state at this point for this to be allowed, but we'll find out.

1329
00:46:23,384 --> 00:46:27,964
And what he's doing is now he's offering stable value with stretch.

1330
00:46:28,024 --> 00:46:28,924
And I was like, stable value?

1331
00:46:29,504 --> 00:46:30,284
What the fuck is that?

1332
00:46:30,564 --> 00:46:31,584
And I started reading on this.

1333
00:46:31,644 --> 00:46:32,364
I'm trying to understand.

1334
00:46:32,504 --> 00:46:33,644
I'm listening to some of these podcasts.

1335
00:46:33,804 --> 00:46:34,504
And it's finally started clicking.

1336
00:46:34,604 --> 00:46:35,084
I'm like, oh, man.

1337
00:46:35,344 --> 00:46:39,724
So this instrument that he's offering, it pays out a monthly dividend.

1338
00:46:40,264 --> 00:46:41,744
And there's an interest rate on that dividend.

1339
00:46:42,264 --> 00:46:43,884
And the interest rate is adjustable.

1340
00:46:44,064 --> 00:46:44,864
He's also got some other things.

1341
00:46:44,864 --> 00:46:48,264
I don't fully understand all the mechanics because I got the ability to call or claw some

1342
00:46:48,264 --> 00:46:52,284
this back when he wants to. So he has these different levers he can pull. But the idea is

1343
00:46:52,284 --> 00:46:57,704
variable interest rate, monthly, paid out monthly, stable value. And you're like, stable value?

1344
00:46:58,384 --> 00:47:06,124
Wait a second. This guy's issuing a Bitcoin back dollar. Oh shit. Because if he's at,

1345
00:47:06,244 --> 00:47:09,864
and in his little chart where he explains this, he's like, and what are the markets we're going

1346
00:47:09,864 --> 00:47:14,784
after? And he's like, all of commercial paper, all of like commercial savings accounts, or

1347
00:47:14,784 --> 00:47:16,064
like retail savings account.

1348
00:47:17,204 --> 00:47:30,968
Stablecoins I like oh man he coming for Tether He is coming for Tether and then he not stopping there Did he say that publicly Well he didn say it publicly but in the slide stable coins is like a tiny tiny blip compared to the like whatever trillion in like dollar

1349
00:47:30,968 --> 00:47:35,148
denominated commercial paper and overnight lending. But when I started to understand this,

1350
00:47:35,208 --> 00:47:39,948
I was like, okay. And one tweet from this Bitcoin research account I love just said it perfectly.

1351
00:47:40,528 --> 00:47:44,188
Before this week, Saylor was, or MicroStrategy, whatever they're called,

1352
00:47:44,948 --> 00:47:46,348
Bitcoin's investment bank.

1353
00:47:46,728 --> 00:47:49,888
He gets Bitcoin, he goes to the market, he securitizes it,

1354
00:47:49,968 --> 00:47:51,208
he brings capital into Bitcoin.

1355
00:47:51,628 --> 00:47:51,868
Great.

1356
00:47:52,668 --> 00:47:54,768
As of this week, assuming he's allowed to do this,

1357
00:47:54,808 --> 00:47:57,188
and again, I am highly skeptical he's allowed to do this

1358
00:47:57,188 --> 00:48:00,288
unless there's some implicit agreement from the state part.

1359
00:48:00,948 --> 00:48:02,268
He is now the central bank.

1360
00:48:02,668 --> 00:48:07,548
He is issuing effectively dollar-denominated assets,

1361
00:48:07,548 --> 00:48:09,168
but unlike stable coins,

1362
00:48:09,228 --> 00:48:10,348
which with the Genius Act and all that

1363
00:48:10,348 --> 00:48:11,488
can't offer the yield

1364
00:48:11,488 --> 00:48:13,928
because Tether is making ungodly sums of money

1365
00:48:13,928 --> 00:48:16,348
by just like blanketing all the 5% from treasuries

1366
00:48:16,348 --> 00:48:16,928
or whatever it is.

1367
00:48:17,388 --> 00:48:21,248
He's sharing yield with his customers

1368
00:48:21,248 --> 00:48:25,628
and unlike all of the past algorithmic stable coins,

1369
00:48:25,688 --> 00:48:26,028
and by the way,

1370
00:48:26,068 --> 00:48:27,188
this has been like the wet dream

1371
00:48:27,188 --> 00:48:28,708
of like all of the crypto bros

1372
00:48:28,708 --> 00:48:30,748
and Andreessen's back like six versions of this

1373
00:48:30,748 --> 00:48:31,268
over the years,

1374
00:48:31,648 --> 00:48:32,308
but they never work

1375
00:48:32,308 --> 00:48:33,728
because it's always backed by some coin

1376
00:48:33,728 --> 00:48:34,608
that people don't want.

1377
00:48:34,988 --> 00:48:36,468
You know, it's always scammy people like,

1378
00:48:36,588 --> 00:48:37,148
what's his name?

1379
00:48:37,148 --> 00:48:40,208
the Korean dude.

1380
00:48:40,548 --> 00:48:41,468
Like it's always just...

1381
00:48:41,468 --> 00:48:41,648
Joe Kwon.

1382
00:48:41,788 --> 00:48:42,448
Yeah, that dude.

1383
00:48:42,628 --> 00:48:43,728
It's like...

1384
00:48:43,728 --> 00:48:44,948
And look, to be clear,

1385
00:48:45,128 --> 00:48:46,048
like, I don't know,

1386
00:48:46,268 --> 00:48:47,128
is there a chance

1387
00:48:47,128 --> 00:48:48,488
that Saylor gets above his skis here

1388
00:48:48,488 --> 00:48:49,148
and starts getting through it?

1389
00:48:49,188 --> 00:48:50,128
It's certainly possible.

1390
00:48:50,208 --> 00:48:50,628
I'm not saying...

1391
00:48:50,628 --> 00:48:51,308
Like this is the first one

1392
00:48:51,308 --> 00:48:51,688
where I've been like,

1393
00:48:51,728 --> 00:48:52,628
okay, watch this closely.

1394
00:48:53,108 --> 00:48:55,828
But he has way more

1395
00:48:55,828 --> 00:48:57,088
of a real asset backhand,

1396
00:48:57,168 --> 00:48:57,988
which in my opinion

1397
00:48:57,988 --> 00:48:59,148
is radically undervalued in Bitcoin.

1398
00:48:59,688 --> 00:49:00,608
He has the ability

1399
00:49:00,608 --> 00:49:01,608
to adjust interest rate,

1400
00:49:01,808 --> 00:49:03,248
to take instruments out.

1401
00:49:03,408 --> 00:49:03,988
I think that's what

1402
00:49:03,988 --> 00:49:05,168
the sort of call option is,

1403
00:49:05,248 --> 00:49:06,108
or clawback mechanism

1404
00:49:06,108 --> 00:49:06,508
at any point.

1405
00:49:06,508 --> 00:49:08,408
He's got a lot more levers that he can pull.

1406
00:49:08,528 --> 00:49:11,568
And again, he's radically over collateralized with how much Bitcoin he has.

1407
00:49:11,988 --> 00:49:16,268
So if you start thinking about it, then he's like, okay, well, he can start basically being

1408
00:49:16,268 --> 00:49:18,328
the new issuer of the dollar.

1409
00:49:18,588 --> 00:49:22,988
And now with the Genius Act, he can tokenize those instruments, which effectively become

1410
00:49:22,988 --> 00:49:23,628
stable coins.

1411
00:49:24,528 --> 00:49:25,128
Oh my God.

1412
00:49:25,228 --> 00:49:26,888
Like it's the story is not tether.

1413
00:49:27,208 --> 00:49:28,308
Story is not stable coin.

1414
00:49:28,368 --> 00:49:31,208
The story is Michael Saylor is creating the new Federal Reserve.

1415
00:49:31,408 --> 00:49:35,748
Now, and when I put on my investor hat, I'm like, as Bitcoin reprices the world, if you

1416
00:49:35,748 --> 00:49:38,248
believe that's going to happen. I believe that's going to happen. We all believe that's going to

1417
00:49:38,248 --> 00:49:42,988
happen. If idiot, 30 million Bitcoin is literally impossible. This is going to become the most

1418
00:49:42,988 --> 00:49:48,408
valuable company in the history of humanity. Oh my God. And then you put on your Bitcoin or hat

1419
00:49:48,408 --> 00:49:52,528
and you're like, wait a second, what does that mean for Bitcoin? Oh shit. This guy is going to

1420
00:49:52,528 --> 00:49:59,348
suck up so much Bitcoin. And I kind of joke that the attack was never sort of 1984, but brave new

1421
00:49:59,348 --> 00:50:02,548
world. It's not going to be like, okay, you can't hold your keys. No, it's going to be like, hey,

1422
00:50:02,548 --> 00:50:07,168
like just give us your keys and like you want that mansion and the lambo you got it bro it's all

1423
00:50:07,168 --> 00:50:12,288
there and a lot of people are gonna be like sweet i'm in and like i mean look i'm an investor too

1424
00:50:12,288 --> 00:50:19,008
like i i you would be foolish not to at least entertain what's happening here and yet i also

1425
00:50:19,008 --> 00:50:23,608
increasingly think that if we don't get some kind of a breakout use case for bitcoin payments the

1426
00:50:23,608 --> 00:50:30,868
next 12 18 maybe 24 months like bitcoin as money may not function for a generation and that's that's

1427
00:50:30,868 --> 00:50:32,848
risk. I know that's spicy, but yeah.

1428
00:50:32,908 --> 00:50:34,708
Yep. And we're going to dive more into that

1429
00:50:34,708 --> 00:50:36,948
risk in a little bit, but let's

1430
00:50:36,948 --> 00:50:38,088
come, so one thing, so

1431
00:50:38,088 --> 00:50:40,068
thanks for that explanation.

1432
00:50:41,348 --> 00:50:42,708
So do you see

1433
00:50:42,708 --> 00:50:44,748
a next step, next

1434
00:50:44,748 --> 00:50:46,868
logical step is to issue tokens

1435
00:50:46,868 --> 00:50:48,388
that are one-to-one to this

1436
00:50:48,388 --> 00:50:50,868
traditional security? I don't even think he needs to

1437
00:50:50,868 --> 00:50:52,828
do that because we saw, wasn't

1438
00:50:52,828 --> 00:50:54,908
it Robinhood that says we're going to take

1439
00:50:54,908 --> 00:50:57,268
a thing, I don't even think that they can't

1440
00:50:57,268 --> 00:50:58,228
actually access

1441
00:50:58,228 --> 00:51:00,808
OpenAI stock, but they said we're going to tokenize

1442
00:51:00,868 --> 00:51:02,608
AI stack can sell it to you.

1443
00:51:02,728 --> 00:51:03,888
You're saying he doesn't have to do it.

1444
00:51:03,988 --> 00:51:04,928
He doesn't even need to do it.

1445
00:51:05,248 --> 00:51:05,508
He just.

1446
00:51:05,728 --> 00:51:06,068
Someone else will.

1447
00:51:06,188 --> 00:51:12,288
I would think about the spectrum of offerings that Saylor has provided to the market.

1448
00:51:12,968 --> 00:51:14,768
You know, starting the first one was MSTR.

1449
00:51:15,328 --> 00:51:19,768
And that was just like all the volatility, no yield.

1450
00:51:20,228 --> 00:51:20,388
Right.

1451
00:51:20,568 --> 00:51:23,748
So you get 100% volatility, 0% yield.

1452
00:51:24,228 --> 00:51:27,528
And Stride, Strike, Strife, I think are the other three.

1453
00:51:27,648 --> 00:51:27,808
Right.

1454
00:51:27,908 --> 00:51:28,728
They're just different.

1455
00:51:29,168 --> 00:51:29,728
I'm impressed.

1456
00:51:29,728 --> 00:51:30,508
Yeah, I'm impressed.

1457
00:51:30,868 --> 00:51:31,508
You've done your homework.

1458
00:51:31,928 --> 00:51:38,208
They're different, you know, areas on the, there's different trade-offs of like, you know, how much can you pull back?

1459
00:51:38,248 --> 00:51:39,568
You can't claw back any of it.

1460
00:51:39,908 --> 00:51:40,508
Here's the risk.

1461
00:51:40,568 --> 00:51:41,528
You get a kicker in equity.

1462
00:51:41,648 --> 00:51:46,488
So they're different spectrum of a little bit of risk, a little bit of all, a little bit of yield, right?

1463
00:51:46,548 --> 00:51:48,168
So they're some yield, some vol.

1464
00:51:48,888 --> 00:51:56,568
And then this is kind of like the other end of the spectrum, which is zero vol, all yield, right?

1465
00:51:56,568 --> 00:52:02,848
And so that is very, very similar to like stable or money market or U.S. Treasury.

1466
00:52:03,368 --> 00:52:05,728
U.S. Treasury is what, four and a half percent or whatever it is.

1467
00:52:06,088 --> 00:52:07,988
And I think these ones are nine percent, right?

1468
00:52:08,108 --> 00:52:09,188
So it's basically like double.

1469
00:52:09,808 --> 00:52:15,028
But if the price were to get bid up, they would issue and drive it down, right?

1470
00:52:15,568 --> 00:52:19,508
So he just is presenting this instrument to the market.

1471
00:52:19,508 --> 00:52:25,108
And then Robinhood or whoever could take this publicly traded equity that they actually can get access to.

1472
00:52:25,108 --> 00:52:30,508
They can't necessarily get access to OpenAI stuff like they claim to, but they can definitely get access to STRC.

1473
00:52:30,988 --> 00:52:34,268
They can buy that, tokenize it, and just make it available to everybody worldwide, right?

1474
00:52:34,428 --> 00:52:38,708
I see that, but let's talk about potential fragmentation and what that would mean.

1475
00:52:38,868 --> 00:52:40,548
So let's say Robinhood does that.

1476
00:52:41,628 --> 00:52:47,488
So they'd acquire some of this security and then tokenize it, but that's just a subset of the total.

1477
00:52:48,488 --> 00:52:50,888
And then other competitors might do that as well.

1478
00:52:50,888 --> 00:52:54,188
but like Robin Hood

1479
00:52:54,188 --> 00:52:56,188
names this you know X

1480
00:52:56,188 --> 00:52:58,448
and someone else names it Y like there's a name

1481
00:52:58,448 --> 00:53:00,168
mismatch and then you use this fragmentation

1482
00:53:00,168 --> 00:53:02,068
then we have

1483
00:53:02,068 --> 00:53:03,428
we each have wallets

1484
00:53:03,428 --> 00:53:05,868
and we just want to have dollars in our

1485
00:53:05,868 --> 00:53:08,428
wallet like what we care about is dollars

1486
00:53:08,428 --> 00:53:10,508
in our wallet what actually is that

1487
00:53:10,508 --> 00:53:12,588
it's this token representation

1488
00:53:12,588 --> 00:53:14,248
of this traditional

1489
00:53:14,248 --> 00:53:16,328
security but mine is

1490
00:53:16,328 --> 00:53:18,388
flavor A and yours is flavor B

1491
00:53:18,388 --> 00:53:20,588
and yours is flavor C so how do we

1492
00:53:20,588 --> 00:53:33,528
I mean first of all is that accurate that that could play out that way and then secondly how to deal with that fragmentation interoperability maybe the same playbook that stablecoin.

1493
00:53:33,528 --> 00:53:34,648
I mean, that's what bridge is.

1494
00:53:34,768 --> 00:53:35,608
My bridge is...

1495
00:53:35,608 --> 00:53:38,748
And then my last question,

1496
00:53:39,188 --> 00:53:42,588
doesn't that suggest that strategy

1497
00:53:42,588 --> 00:53:45,768
should be the central issuer of the token,

1498
00:53:45,888 --> 00:53:46,548
much like Tether,

1499
00:53:47,448 --> 00:53:51,428
and make sure that there's not interoperability issues?

1500
00:53:51,508 --> 00:53:52,888
Yeah, I mean, maybe...

1501
00:53:52,888 --> 00:53:54,268
I think those are great questions.

1502
00:53:54,408 --> 00:53:56,908
I don't think we have tons of clarity on any of them,

1503
00:53:56,988 --> 00:53:58,428
but none of them seem like...

1504
00:53:58,428 --> 00:53:59,808
It seemed like the kinds of things

1505
00:53:59,808 --> 00:54:01,568
that would play out in the market, and they could...

1506
00:54:01,568 --> 00:54:02,088
Yeah, I'm not...

1507
00:54:02,088 --> 00:54:03,348
These are not posed as like,

1508
00:54:03,348 --> 00:54:09,948
oh this future is not going to work out it's more just like we will stumble my guess is it will be

1509
00:54:09,948 --> 00:54:14,508
better for strategy and i don't have any inside information on this but my guess is it would be

1510
00:54:14,508 --> 00:54:19,948
better for strategy to just say here's a thing in the market go do stuff with it free market and

1511
00:54:19,948 --> 00:54:24,848
you know if if robin hood wants to make their own fine and if schwab or somebody wants to make their

1512
00:54:24,848 --> 00:54:29,808
own fine uh somebody might there might be a startup opportunity to be like what bridge did

1513
00:54:29,808 --> 00:54:31,888
for stable coins to do that for tokenized equity.

1514
00:54:32,168 --> 00:54:32,328
Yep.

1515
00:54:32,508 --> 00:54:32,648
Right.

1516
00:54:32,748 --> 00:54:34,528
So that wouldn't surprise me

1517
00:54:34,528 --> 00:54:36,108
if that kind of thing were to emerge.

1518
00:54:36,128 --> 00:54:36,908
And if that were to emerge

1519
00:54:36,908 --> 00:54:38,128
and there was tons of volume,

1520
00:54:38,328 --> 00:54:42,008
but ultimately it was all STRC as the stable coin,

1521
00:54:42,008 --> 00:54:44,748
maybe strategy would later come in and say,

1522
00:54:44,868 --> 00:54:45,728
okay, let's clean this up.

1523
00:54:45,968 --> 00:54:47,248
And to be clear, I mean, markets,

1524
00:54:47,448 --> 00:54:50,088
even prior to bridge, I mean, price this stuff, right?

1525
00:54:50,128 --> 00:54:52,028
Like for in the early days of stable coins,

1526
00:54:52,088 --> 00:54:54,248
or like at least in the last DeFi wave in 2020,

1527
00:54:54,528 --> 00:54:56,448
you had the algorithmic stable coins,

1528
00:54:56,588 --> 00:54:58,348
like MakerDAO, of course, that's backed by ETH.

1529
00:54:58,348 --> 00:55:04,168
like. And then you've got, you know, the USDT and USDC and those traded at different prices

1530
00:55:04,168 --> 00:55:07,308
relative to each other based on people's different confidence, liquidity, things like that. So I

1531
00:55:07,308 --> 00:55:10,468
think the market will probably solve that problem. Maybe it's interesting for him to issue his own.

1532
00:55:10,588 --> 00:55:14,348
Like, I don't know. I mean, at this point, I'm like, sailor can see into the future further than

1533
00:55:14,348 --> 00:55:20,408
I can. What I do think about though is, I mean, the banks have got to be like kind of furious

1534
00:55:20,408 --> 00:55:23,548
about this, right? Because they just fought to be able to keep the ability to issue stable coins

1535
00:55:23,548 --> 00:55:26,988
and keep all of that sweet. And Tether's got to be furious. Like the treasury yield themselves,

1536
00:55:26,988 --> 00:55:32,408
I was like, this is kind of like a checkmate move on both the banks and Tether, which is why I'm kind of like, you know.

1537
00:55:33,008 --> 00:55:33,568
And Circle.

1538
00:55:34,008 --> 00:55:39,308
Circle just IPO'd and the valuation was expected to be $5 billion and now it's $60 billion or whatever.

1539
00:55:40,468 --> 00:55:44,588
So getting to the, first of all, it impacts them as well.

1540
00:55:44,848 --> 00:55:45,028
Yeah.

1541
00:55:45,288 --> 00:55:51,748
Also, as far as like strategy valuation, if you just look at the valuation being applied to a Circle.

1542
00:55:52,828 --> 00:55:53,068
Yeah.

1543
00:55:53,068 --> 00:55:56,188
and whatever Tether is valued at,

1544
00:55:56,268 --> 00:55:56,908
which would be,

1545
00:55:57,368 --> 00:55:59,068
has to be much more than Circle.

1546
00:56:00,108 --> 00:56:00,588
Yeah.

1547
00:56:00,828 --> 00:56:03,468
It does kind of suggest a huge valuation.

1548
00:56:03,748 --> 00:56:04,208
And by the way,

1549
00:56:04,588 --> 00:56:09,868
I think the STRC IPO was meant to issue 500.

1550
00:56:10,728 --> 00:56:11,448
Is that right?

1551
00:56:11,528 --> 00:56:11,828
500?

1552
00:56:12,008 --> 00:56:12,728
Something like that.

1553
00:56:13,508 --> 00:56:13,848
Million.

1554
00:56:14,288 --> 00:56:14,688
Million?

1555
00:56:14,968 --> 00:56:15,528
I don't remember what that was.

1556
00:56:15,528 --> 00:56:18,108
And then I think I saw that it's at 2.8 billion.

1557
00:56:18,328 --> 00:56:19,268
2.5, 2.8.

1558
00:56:19,388 --> 00:56:20,488
I thought I said 2.5

1559
00:56:20,488 --> 00:56:22,068
and I saw there's another one that said 2.8.

1560
00:56:22,068 --> 00:56:23,348
so maybe as of this morning

1561
00:56:23,348 --> 00:56:23,828
I don't know if it's

1562
00:56:23,828 --> 00:56:24,328
radically over

1563
00:56:24,328 --> 00:56:24,968
is it priced yet

1564
00:56:24,968 --> 00:56:26,448
is it out today or no

1565
00:56:26,448 --> 00:56:27,628
I just saw people

1566
00:56:27,628 --> 00:56:28,048
speculating

1567
00:56:28,048 --> 00:56:31,088
a couple months ago

1568
00:56:31,088 --> 00:56:33,788
someone we all know

1569
00:56:33,788 --> 00:56:34,188
and respect

1570
00:56:34,188 --> 00:56:34,648
I think

1571
00:56:34,648 --> 00:56:35,508
I wasn't part of this

1572
00:56:35,508 --> 00:56:36,688
conversation but told you guys

1573
00:56:36,688 --> 00:56:37,048
that

1574
00:56:37,048 --> 00:56:38,608
TetherTron

1575
00:56:38,608 --> 00:56:39,168
like

1576
00:56:39,168 --> 00:56:39,968
it's one

1577
00:56:39,968 --> 00:56:40,208
yeah

1578
00:56:40,208 --> 00:56:40,628
he's like

1579
00:56:40,628 --> 00:56:41,448
stop LARPing

1580
00:56:41,448 --> 00:56:41,968
100%

1581
00:56:41,968 --> 00:56:43,968
like USDC is a joke

1582
00:56:43,968 --> 00:56:44,768
all the other platforms

1583
00:56:44,768 --> 00:56:45,188
are a joke

1584
00:56:45,188 --> 00:56:45,868
and

1585
00:56:45,868 --> 00:56:47,268
I forget if we talked about

1586
00:56:47,268 --> 00:56:48,188
on the show or just privately

1587
00:56:48,188 --> 00:56:48,868
but I'm like

1588
00:56:48,868 --> 00:56:51,608
I mean I totally disagree

1589
00:56:51,608 --> 00:56:52,848
on the underlying platform.

1590
00:56:52,988 --> 00:56:53,708
Tether's already demonstrated

1591
00:56:53,708 --> 00:56:56,188
you can switch those out over time.

1592
00:56:57,588 --> 00:56:58,788
And then Tether itself,

1593
00:56:58,908 --> 00:57:01,168
obviously they are in the driver's seat right now,

1594
00:57:01,348 --> 00:57:04,068
but I think there's going to be stiff competition.

1595
00:57:04,208 --> 00:57:04,968
With the Genius Act,

1596
00:57:05,228 --> 00:57:06,628
there's going to be more competition.

1597
00:57:06,628 --> 00:57:08,428
I mean, the Genius Act,

1598
00:57:08,748 --> 00:57:10,088
we didn't talk about it on the show yet,

1599
00:57:10,148 --> 00:57:12,588
but there's a framework

1600
00:57:12,588 --> 00:57:14,908
so that you can have federal-issued

1601
00:57:14,908 --> 00:57:16,728
or even state-issued ones.

1602
00:57:17,168 --> 00:57:17,968
And there's a cap.

1603
00:57:18,068 --> 00:57:20,208
A state-issued one can only be up to $10 billion,

1604
00:57:20,208 --> 00:57:28,908
But that framework creates a structure where you can imagine lots of competition, lots of different stablecoin issuance.

1605
00:57:30,708 --> 00:57:35,508
So anyway, with that backdrop, now we're talking about strategy, maybe checkmate move.

1606
00:57:36,968 --> 00:57:45,028
First of all, to the degree that that's true or becomes true, then Tether is very vulnerable.

1607
00:57:45,368 --> 00:57:45,688
Extremely.

1608
00:57:45,688 --> 00:57:47,748
And let's be clear on this, right?

1609
00:57:47,748 --> 00:58:10,688
The reason I'm saying it's a checkmate move is because they have so much more Bitcoin than anyone else in the market. And remember, all of these different instruments, it's all a flywheel that allows them to just keep sucking the Bitcoin out of the market. And so it's reflexive. The more people buy each of these instruments, including the radically oversubscribed dollar instrument they're issuing, the more Bitcoin they get.

1610
00:58:10,688 --> 00:58:14,908
So like, I don't think there's any entity that can play catch up with them at this point,

1611
00:58:14,908 --> 00:58:17,408
other than perhaps the US federal government itself.

1612
00:58:17,868 --> 00:58:21,008
But again, I kind of have to think that they're okay with this.

1613
00:58:21,108 --> 00:58:25,668
Otherwise, it's almost like a checkmate move from the Fed against the banks, because the

1614
00:58:25,668 --> 00:58:29,408
banks, I mean, like what's going to happen is if you, even if you're Tether, they have

1615
00:58:29,408 --> 00:58:33,128
a lot of Bitcoin and maybe Tether is the one entity that has like a Hail Mary they could,

1616
00:58:33,208 --> 00:58:35,088
they could throw it, you know, to try and catch up.

1617
00:58:35,148 --> 00:58:36,168
And that's probably what they're doing at 21.

1618
00:58:36,548 --> 00:58:39,928
But the issue is like, say there's so much more Bitcoin than you do.

1619
00:58:40,688 --> 00:59:01,408
So unless somehow, and I'm guessing we're seeing all these OG whales moving lots of Bitcoin. I think one report was that Adam Back was moving in at 21 or something. Maybe they're just like behind the scenes trying to just gather as much Bitcoin as they can to try and catch up. But like, as they start doing that, the genius of what Saylor is doing is it drives the value of his Bitcoin up even faster, which makes it even harder to catch him.

1620
00:59:01,408 --> 00:59:07,328
And by the way, all these other treasury companies that we've talked about, like, I think he's just goading all these people into doing this.

1621
00:59:07,748 --> 00:59:11,648
No offense to these people, but like, I'm sorry, there's no way you're better at risk management than Sailor.

1622
00:59:11,688 --> 00:59:13,568
And you're not going to get the same credit terms.

1623
00:59:13,948 --> 00:59:16,168
I have a great meme that one of us has to do.

1624
00:59:16,168 --> 00:59:22,788
So, you know the memes where, like, there's someone sitting by someone, they have a gun to their head, and then someone behind it.

1625
00:59:22,788 --> 00:59:24,988
It'd be like, we're all facing not each other.

1626
00:59:25,268 --> 00:59:25,548
Oh, yeah.

1627
00:59:25,728 --> 00:59:26,408
But then there's actually.

1628
00:59:27,088 --> 00:59:28,028
No, not the astronaut one.

1629
00:59:28,268 --> 00:59:30,908
They're in like a courtroom or church.

1630
00:59:30,908 --> 00:59:32,848
kind of pew like seating

1631
00:59:32,848 --> 00:59:35,088
and then like so it'd be like

1632
00:59:35,088 --> 00:59:36,348
we need the meme generator by the way

1633
00:59:36,348 --> 00:59:38,028
you know what I'm talking about or not

1634
00:59:38,028 --> 00:59:39,928
there's three people sitting

1635
00:59:39,928 --> 00:59:42,208
right in a row

1636
00:59:42,208 --> 00:59:44,388
not facing each other

1637
00:59:44,388 --> 00:59:47,008
and like so imagine

1638
00:59:47,008 --> 00:59:48,628
you guys turning around you have a gun to his head

1639
00:59:48,628 --> 00:59:51,208
you think you've got him I've got a gun to your head

1640
00:59:51,208 --> 00:59:52,948
but then there's a fourth

1641
00:59:52,948 --> 00:59:54,788
person way up high who has a

1642
00:59:54,788 --> 00:59:55,828
rifle shot or whatever

1643
00:59:55,828 --> 00:59:58,248
I've seen the one with the guy with the bubble

1644
00:59:58,248 --> 01:00:00,888
it's the same concept right the guy with the bubble and then you zoom out

1645
01:00:00,888 --> 01:00:02,608
and then it's like the guy who's holding the guy.

1646
01:00:03,868 --> 01:00:06,448
So seriously, we need a meme.

1647
01:00:06,448 --> 01:00:07,648
I thought it was better at memes.

1648
01:00:07,808 --> 01:00:08,368
I don't know this one.

1649
01:00:08,368 --> 01:00:08,908
Nostra Bitcoin.

1650
01:00:09,048 --> 01:00:10,448
I've asked for this like six months ago.

1651
01:00:10,508 --> 01:00:11,388
Please someone build this

1652
01:00:11,388 --> 01:00:13,248
so we can collect those sweet sats.

1653
01:00:13,468 --> 01:00:13,668
Pick one.

1654
01:00:14,668 --> 01:00:15,388
Now I forgot.

1655
01:00:16,228 --> 01:00:17,948
Oh, thank you.

1656
01:00:17,948 --> 01:00:18,488
Thank you.

1657
01:00:18,588 --> 01:00:19,408
There it is.

1658
01:00:19,648 --> 01:00:20,188
Thank you.

1659
01:00:20,288 --> 01:00:21,628
Person of interest, church sniper.

1660
01:00:22,128 --> 01:00:23,328
But they don't show the sniper.

1661
01:00:23,968 --> 01:00:24,388
The last one.

1662
01:00:24,568 --> 01:00:25,088
Or meme generator.

1663
01:00:25,608 --> 01:00:26,948
I see it in the bottom.

1664
01:00:27,228 --> 01:00:27,348
Yeah.

1665
01:00:27,688 --> 01:00:29,768
Oh, you can kind of see the sniper in the bottom, right?

1666
01:00:29,948 --> 01:00:30,488
Oh, yes.

1667
01:00:30,488 --> 01:00:32,308
Yes, yes, yes.

1668
01:00:32,408 --> 01:00:32,728
I've seen it.

1669
01:00:32,848 --> 01:00:33,128
Okay, sorry.

1670
01:00:33,128 --> 01:00:33,628
But now I'm forgetting

1671
01:00:33,628 --> 01:00:34,388
who the sniper is.

1672
01:00:34,468 --> 01:00:34,988
Oh, my God.

1673
01:00:35,048 --> 01:00:35,768
It's the U.S. government.

1674
01:00:38,168 --> 01:00:40,108
Sailor, Ilan, Paolo.

1675
01:00:41,688 --> 01:00:42,088
Okay.

1676
01:00:42,368 --> 01:00:42,888
Oh, my God.

1677
01:00:43,028 --> 01:00:43,728
It'll come to me,

1678
01:00:43,808 --> 01:00:44,468
but we can move on.

1679
01:00:45,408 --> 01:00:46,808
I had some brilliant,

1680
01:00:46,808 --> 01:00:49,448
like, sniper that's not strategy.

1681
01:00:49,508 --> 01:00:50,248
Oh, somebody that

1682
01:00:50,248 --> 01:00:51,368
we haven't talked about.

1683
01:00:51,468 --> 01:00:51,768
Yes.

1684
01:00:51,948 --> 01:00:52,168
Okay.

1685
01:00:53,148 --> 01:00:54,108
It's going to have to come.

1686
01:00:54,228 --> 01:00:54,588
Well, this is,

1687
01:00:54,588 --> 01:00:55,188
I know.

1688
01:00:55,188 --> 01:00:56,208
You can't give us the clipping.

1689
01:00:57,168 --> 01:00:58,308
While you think about it,

1690
01:00:58,308 --> 01:00:58,768
I'll give you some time

1691
01:00:58,768 --> 01:00:59,348
to think about it.

1692
01:00:59,348 --> 01:01:00,228
Austin knows your name.

1693
01:01:00,488 --> 01:01:01,808
By the way, we have some chat we should chat on.

1694
01:01:01,988 --> 01:01:02,868
Oh, thank you, Austin.

1695
01:01:03,228 --> 01:01:03,908
Thanks, Austin.

1696
01:01:04,248 --> 01:01:06,028
He's a diehard PBJ fan.

1697
01:01:06,048 --> 01:01:06,268
Oh, we do.

1698
01:01:06,988 --> 01:01:09,688
Can we scroll up on that?

1699
01:01:09,768 --> 01:01:10,328
Is that possible?

1700
01:01:10,388 --> 01:01:10,868
In the chat.

1701
01:01:11,688 --> 01:01:12,868
There's not much to scroll up on.

1702
01:01:12,868 --> 01:01:13,128
Famify bot.

1703
01:01:14,408 --> 01:01:15,588
Oh, Famify is back.

1704
01:01:15,688 --> 01:01:16,308
Thank God.

1705
01:01:17,048 --> 01:01:18,388
Matt was being a courteous Canadian.

1706
01:01:18,508 --> 01:01:20,108
Okay, cool, Austin.

1707
01:01:21,548 --> 01:01:24,888
What I was going to say is you mentioned that maybe Adam back and people are moving.

1708
01:01:24,888 --> 01:01:28,768
I'm certainly not in his position.

1709
01:01:28,768 --> 01:01:42,648
But I did hear about private transactions that are offering Bitcoiners allocation in private treasury company transactions if they move Bitcoin into them.

1710
01:01:42,888 --> 01:01:47,628
I think Strive, which is Rivette Grumaswamy's, I think that's kind of the way they're trying to differentiate.

1711
01:01:47,868 --> 01:01:51,528
Which again is, and I hate to say this, this is why I like the stuff you said.

1712
01:01:51,608 --> 01:01:56,768
It's so important that you get the, it's not Hotel California, you get the ability to withdraw in kind.

1713
01:01:56,768 --> 01:01:58,228
Because what they're doing is they're saying, hey, Bitcoiners.

1714
01:01:58,228 --> 01:02:02,328
it's the same thing i'm saying they're saying give us your keys and don't worry about it

1715
01:02:02,328 --> 01:02:07,348
you know malibu or i guess malibu's gone but like i don't know somewhere nice with the

1716
01:02:07,348 --> 01:02:15,988
mansion like i don't know man i i i have uh remembered my ultimate check yes i mean it's

1717
01:02:15,988 --> 01:02:22,108
kind of a joke but uh satoshi is the one oh yeah yeah because who who has more bitcoin than

1718
01:02:22,108 --> 01:02:32,088
microstrategy satosh yeah sure yeah sure so it's a long conflict or not not as a long play

1719
01:02:32,088 --> 01:02:38,848
and i think as bitcoiners who appreciate the benefits of self-custody i think we could look

1720
01:02:38,848 --> 01:02:43,368
at this and be like this is crazy this is stupid why are we letting them do this this is xrp

1721
01:02:43,368 --> 01:02:49,908
and i i would actually take the view that it is it does have that feel to it but i think it's

1722
01:02:49,908 --> 01:02:51,928
impossible for Bitcoin to become a

1723
01:02:51,928 --> 01:02:53,468
mainstream thing without the

1724
01:02:53,468 --> 01:02:55,908
trad fi or tard fi as some people

1725
01:02:55,908 --> 01:02:57,608
say kind of ecosystem

1726
01:02:57,608 --> 01:02:59,688
I've never heard

1727
01:02:59,688 --> 01:03:00,868
I haven't either

1728
01:03:00,868 --> 01:03:03,128
I have a friend who always uses that

1729
01:03:03,128 --> 01:03:04,648
the things you learn on TVJ

1730
01:03:04,648 --> 01:03:05,988
tard fi

1731
01:03:05,988 --> 01:03:09,948
I guess tard fi works too

1732
01:03:09,948 --> 01:03:11,528
that's not politically correct

1733
01:03:11,528 --> 01:03:11,988
probably not

1734
01:03:11,988 --> 01:03:17,088
after the Sydney Sweeney drop

1735
01:03:17,088 --> 01:03:17,848
political correct

1736
01:03:17,848 --> 01:03:19,888
we're back to normal

1737
01:03:19,908 --> 01:03:32,628
But I don't think we can, you know, I don't think Bitcoin can get to the whole world without this kind of unfortunate style of, you know, integration with the traditional financial system.

1738
01:03:32,628 --> 01:03:40,788
Because it's what people are comfortable with and people are not going to change what they're comfortable with as fast as they're going to understand that they should own some sort of Bitcoin.

1739
01:03:41,288 --> 01:03:42,168
You know, own.

1740
01:03:42,668 --> 01:03:49,408
At the Presidio Bitcoin launch party, we were fortunate enough to have Jack Dorsey here, David Marcus here, Michael Saylor here.

1741
01:03:49,408 --> 01:03:59,108
So three prominent people within Bitcoin with pretty different view or like things that they emphasize around Bitcoin.

1742
01:03:59,348 --> 01:04:02,368
And I listen to all of them and I agree with all of them.

1743
01:04:02,808 --> 01:04:05,408
In my view, they're not competing visions.

1744
01:04:06,568 --> 01:04:08,848
They're just emphasizing different.

1745
01:04:08,988 --> 01:04:10,348
I mean, Bitcoin is such a complicated beast.

1746
01:04:10,428 --> 01:04:11,448
They're just emphasizing different things.

1747
01:04:11,448 --> 01:04:19,608
Jack emphasizes, you know, uh, freedom tech and freedom money. Um, you know, I would call like

1748
01:04:19,608 --> 01:04:25,808
Satoshi's vision, the white paper, the type, peer to peer cash. I'm not going to let them

1749
01:04:25,808 --> 01:04:34,468
we're taking it back. So, uh, and David Marcus emphasizes like using it as, as, as money,

1750
01:04:34,468 --> 01:04:39,208
everyday money. And Jack definitely does as well. I mean, he coined everyday money within block and

1751
01:04:39,208 --> 01:04:40,668
I think other people are using now.

1752
01:04:41,388 --> 01:04:43,828
Whereas Saylor, that's not what he emphasizes.

1753
01:04:44,768 --> 01:04:45,388
It's capital.

1754
01:04:45,588 --> 01:04:47,188
It's everything you guys just talked about.

1755
01:04:47,648 --> 01:04:49,968
And also, I'm saying this because of what you said, David.

1756
01:04:50,868 --> 01:04:56,808
You can love or hate adoption by financial institutions,

1757
01:04:57,168 --> 01:05:00,008
institutional money, governments,

1758
01:05:00,008 --> 01:05:02,868
whether it be at the local, state, country level.

1759
01:05:03,248 --> 01:05:04,188
You can love or hate that.

1760
01:05:04,188 --> 01:05:26,208
But first of all, I mean, no one should really be against it in principle because Bitcoin's for everyone. It's permissionless. It's for everyone. So now it's certainly reasonable to like monitor the situation and be like, it's becoming an unhealthy balance. And we're going to talk about it right now on the show about risk to Bitcoin.

1761
01:05:26,208 --> 01:05:31,728
Um, so that's absolutely worth discussing and like, okay, but it's, but it's less about

1762
01:05:31,728 --> 01:05:35,848
like, okay, we need to change the code to like prevent a bank from owning it.

1763
01:05:35,928 --> 01:05:41,348
It's more like what, what are the incentive structures or how do we accelerate using Bitcoin

1764
01:05:41,348 --> 01:05:42,208
its everyday money?

1765
01:05:42,768 --> 01:05:47,888
Um, so that there's competition for these different use cases and we can protect and

1766
01:05:47,888 --> 01:05:52,208
preserve some of the, the key properties of Bitcoin that might be lost over time.

1767
01:05:52,208 --> 01:05:54,648
if the dominant narrative

1768
01:05:54,648 --> 01:05:56,528
and actual usage of Bitcoin

1769
01:05:56,528 --> 01:05:57,708
is number go up

1770
01:05:57,708 --> 01:05:58,808
and it just gets sucked

1771
01:05:58,808 --> 01:05:59,968
into treasury companies

1772
01:05:59,968 --> 01:06:00,848
and ETFs.

1773
01:06:00,848 --> 01:06:01,628
So I want to offer

1774
01:06:01,628 --> 01:06:02,668
two thoughts on this.

1775
01:06:02,748 --> 01:06:03,328
One is a response

1776
01:06:03,328 --> 01:06:03,788
to what you said

1777
01:06:03,788 --> 01:06:04,268
and then a response

1778
01:06:04,268 --> 01:06:04,848
to what you said.

1779
01:06:05,108 --> 01:06:05,968
I, again,

1780
01:06:06,328 --> 01:06:07,248
putting on my investor hat,

1781
01:06:07,328 --> 01:06:08,468
MSTR, holy shit.

1782
01:06:09,468 --> 01:06:10,208
Honestly, like,

1783
01:06:11,128 --> 01:06:12,288
tip, tip of the hat to Sailor.

1784
01:06:13,368 --> 01:06:14,648
I put on my Bitcoiner

1785
01:06:14,648 --> 01:06:15,228
or like,

1786
01:06:15,488 --> 01:06:16,168
kind of like hoping

1787
01:06:16,168 --> 01:06:17,448
this actually promotes

1788
01:06:17,448 --> 01:06:18,128
human freedom hat.

1789
01:06:18,208 --> 01:06:18,428
I'm like,

1790
01:06:18,528 --> 01:06:19,648
we might be in some problems.

1791
01:06:19,708 --> 01:06:20,368
We might be in

1792
01:06:20,368 --> 01:06:21,008
for some problems here.

1793
01:06:21,448 --> 01:06:21,628
Now,

1794
01:06:22,208 --> 01:06:51,088
Just to play back on that a little bit, I had a really great chat with Ben Ark. And Ben is one of my favorite people in Bitcoin because, you know, he's much more of the like Bitcoin is not, you know, purely capitalism. In fact, he used to call himself BT socials, which is kind of funny, but it's something new. It's a commons. And for those of you who don't know, Ben is effectively the co-founder of Noster with Fiat Joff as well, who also helped him start Ellen Bits. And anyways, very, very interesting guy. I did a pod with him about a year ago. Highly recommend listening to that. Like we talk a lot about sort of dialectics and sort of like he's a big Hegel fan.

1795
01:06:51,088 --> 01:07:09,108
And the thing I asked him when we chatted on Wednesday or Thursday is I was like, Ben, make me not depressed. If it really is, sure, we all get rich, but the whole mission dies. And he was like, yeah, don't worry about it, man. And because he's like, this is just how reality works, dialectics. There's a thesis, an antithesis, and then a synthesis.

1796
01:07:09,108 --> 01:07:13,288
Right. And so like, I increasingly think this is the way it has to go. Like to your point,

1797
01:07:13,628 --> 01:07:17,388
like there's a new freedom money, but there's still all the old capital that's sitting out in

1798
01:07:17,388 --> 01:07:22,208
the old world. And his point was like, Bitcoin is going to reflect some of this in its image.

1799
01:07:22,348 --> 01:07:25,768
And then this is going to reflect some of its image. And it's just going to keep going back

1800
01:07:25,768 --> 01:07:30,968
and forth until we reach the new stability point. And so I think that, I mean, it's kind of this

1801
01:07:30,968 --> 01:07:34,908
question of like, is Bitcoin corrupting the, or not corrupting, is Bitcoin fixing the traditional

1802
01:07:34,908 --> 01:07:38,588
financial system? Is the traditional financial system corrupting Bitcoin? The answer is both.

1803
01:07:38,588 --> 01:07:41,028
and it's going to keep going back and forth for a long time.

1804
01:07:41,468 --> 01:07:42,688
Then the question I come back with,

1805
01:07:42,828 --> 01:07:44,008
so in that sense, and by the way,

1806
01:07:44,108 --> 01:07:46,068
even if it gets totally quote unquote captured,

1807
01:07:46,408 --> 01:07:47,888
I still think it's at most for a generation,

1808
01:07:48,028 --> 01:07:48,928
Bitcoin will break free.

1809
01:07:49,028 --> 01:07:49,748
People will always remember,

1810
01:07:49,828 --> 01:07:50,648
oh yeah, there's that reason

1811
01:07:50,648 --> 01:07:52,688
we didn't do the same mistake we made as civilization

1812
01:07:52,688 --> 01:07:53,908
for like every hundred years,

1813
01:07:53,968 --> 01:07:55,308
for a thousand years or 2000 years,

1814
01:07:55,348 --> 01:07:55,968
whatever it's been.

1815
01:07:56,768 --> 01:07:58,188
At that point, there's only going to be

1816
01:07:58,188 --> 01:07:59,548
like a million Bitcoin left over

1817
01:07:59,548 --> 01:08:01,928
that are not lost by these other people.

1818
01:08:01,928 --> 01:08:03,528
No, no, no, but at some point-

1819
01:08:03,528 --> 01:08:03,568
What do you mean?

1820
01:08:03,688 --> 01:08:04,908
You can steal them, right?

1821
01:08:05,008 --> 01:08:06,748
Yeah, it'll be stolen or Saylor,

1822
01:08:06,868 --> 01:08:08,068
like his predecessor won't be,

1823
01:08:08,068 --> 01:08:10,488
or his successor won't be anywhere near as competent as he is.

1824
01:08:10,768 --> 01:08:11,728
He'll puke the coins out.

1825
01:08:12,228 --> 01:08:13,848
Eventually, nature will solve this problem.

1826
01:08:14,288 --> 01:08:15,768
Then the question I have, though, is like,

1827
01:08:15,828 --> 01:08:16,908
and this is-

1828
01:08:16,908 --> 01:08:18,528
I'm saying Bitcoin is going to be more scarce

1829
01:08:18,528 --> 01:08:19,428
than people realize.

1830
01:08:19,908 --> 01:08:20,848
There's not 21 million.

1831
01:08:20,948 --> 01:08:22,788
There's a million in the future.

1832
01:08:24,148 --> 01:08:25,448
Debatable with quantum computers and all that.

1833
01:08:25,668 --> 01:08:27,848
But regardless, like-

1834
01:08:27,848 --> 01:08:28,548
But they can be so, I mean,

1835
01:08:28,628 --> 01:08:32,008
unless you're saying they're going to permanently burn them.

1836
01:08:32,348 --> 01:08:33,968
You know, get lost, get hacked.

1837
01:08:34,248 --> 01:08:35,729
You know, what happened if Coinbase got hacked?

1838
01:08:36,388 --> 01:08:37,148
That's a real one.

1839
01:08:37,388 --> 01:08:38,048
Sure, but-

1840
01:08:38,068 --> 01:08:40,208
they're not, then they get recirculated.

1841
01:08:40,248 --> 01:08:41,128
They'll get recirculated eventually.

1842
01:08:41,128 --> 01:08:42,828
Just like with quantum computers, recirculated.

1843
01:08:43,008 --> 01:08:43,808
I mean, it might be.

1844
01:08:44,088 --> 01:08:45,208
So, yeah, yeah, yeah.

1845
01:08:45,208 --> 01:08:47,668
Okay, so yes, but I agree with Steve on,

1846
01:08:47,729 --> 01:08:48,628
like, eventually get recirculated.

1847
01:08:48,788 --> 01:08:51,048
But then the question I have is a question

1848
01:08:51,048 --> 01:08:52,048
that we've been discussing

1849
01:08:52,048 --> 01:08:53,648
in sort of the Kevin Kelly context for years,

1850
01:08:53,769 --> 01:08:55,808
which is, you know, Kevin Kelly has this wonderful book

1851
01:08:55,808 --> 01:08:57,208
called What Technology Wants.

1852
01:08:57,208 --> 01:08:58,908
And the fundamental question that I,

1853
01:08:59,269 --> 01:09:00,308
and I go back and forth with this,

1854
01:09:00,348 --> 01:09:01,088
I don't know the answer,

1855
01:09:01,168 --> 01:09:03,248
is like, is everything scripted or is there free will?

1856
01:09:03,368 --> 01:09:05,248
Is there the ability to shift things a bit?

1857
01:09:05,628 --> 01:09:07,769
And sort of his argument has always been that

1858
01:09:07,769 --> 01:09:12,508
technology has to follow a certain pattern, like water flowing down a river. There's a reason that

1859
01:09:12,508 --> 01:09:18,588
we see fractal patterns emerge everywhere. That's just how nature works. So he would argue that once

1860
01:09:18,588 --> 01:09:22,328
you have different technological blocks that come together, there's an inevitable form,

1861
01:09:22,328 --> 01:09:27,448
almost a platonic form of the next technological block in Bitcoin. Some version of Bitcoin was

1862
01:09:27,448 --> 01:09:31,769
inevitable. And I agree with him that there are things that are inevitable. However, he also

1863
01:09:31,769 --> 01:09:36,568
pushes, and this is the part I don't know, I hope he's right, we'll find out, that the character

1864
01:09:36,568 --> 01:09:39,928
of that next building block can in fact be influenced.

1865
01:09:40,348 --> 01:09:42,229
And so the argument would be as an example,

1866
01:09:43,388 --> 01:09:46,848
some form of a digital communication system

1867
01:09:46,848 --> 01:09:48,108
for the whole globe, inevitable.

1868
01:09:48,588 --> 01:09:50,408
Digital money for the whole world, inevitable.

1869
01:09:50,868 --> 01:09:53,288
A hive mind, which is what I call my fund

1870
01:09:53,288 --> 01:09:55,348
for a reason that we're all growing into, inevitable.

1871
01:09:55,788 --> 01:09:57,568
But the character of that hive mind

1872
01:09:57,568 --> 01:09:59,548
could be China top down,

1873
01:09:59,908 --> 01:10:01,608
or it could be Bitcoin bottoms up.

1874
01:10:01,608 --> 01:10:03,229
And so the argument is like,

1875
01:10:03,229 --> 01:10:10,928
can you, with leverage of whatever sense you want, tip the scales towards the bottoms up versus the

1876
01:10:10,928 --> 01:10:13,948
top down? I don't know the answer to that. I certainly hope you can. That's, I think, why

1877
01:10:13,948 --> 01:10:18,428
we're all spending all of our time and energy. We're making a bet that you can do that and we'll

1878
01:10:18,428 --> 01:10:23,668
find out. If that's the case, my sort of thesis, and I posted a few tweets about this this week,

1879
01:10:24,148 --> 01:10:31,148
is I think we got 12 to 18 months, 24 max, before all the Bitcoin or so much gets siphoned off

1880
01:10:31,148 --> 01:10:32,548
that we're in serious trouble

1881
01:10:32,548 --> 01:10:34,928
to try and find breakout velocity for payments.

1882
01:10:35,068 --> 01:10:36,408
Now, I love what Block is doing

1883
01:10:36,408 --> 01:10:37,428
and we should talk more about

1884
01:10:37,428 --> 01:10:38,588
using Bitcoin as everyday money.

1885
01:10:39,048 --> 01:10:40,729
My strong intuition is that

1886
01:10:40,729 --> 01:10:41,708
it's going to take too long

1887
01:10:41,708 --> 01:10:43,748
to get people paying at Square.

1888
01:10:43,828 --> 01:10:44,488
It's great they're doing it.

1889
01:10:44,508 --> 01:10:45,888
We should be pushing on every front.

1890
01:10:46,428 --> 01:10:47,408
My intuition is

1891
01:10:47,408 --> 01:10:49,008
if you're going to get breakout velocity

1892
01:10:49,008 --> 01:10:50,708
before capture happens,

1893
01:10:51,189 --> 01:10:51,788
and by the way,

1894
01:10:51,828 --> 01:10:53,428
I'm not even saying Taylor wants this in a bad way,

1895
01:10:53,468 --> 01:10:55,848
before the inevitable consequence of gravity

1896
01:10:55,848 --> 01:10:56,708
plays its course,

1897
01:10:56,788 --> 01:11:10,772
even if he a totally good actor which he very well may be is that you have to find something with a J potential It needs to be something that could literally just go exponential which is why we had the Bitcoin AI hackathon why we were pushing so much on getting goose in here

1898
01:11:10,832 --> 01:11:16,112
why we're talking about payments for agents. And increasingly, I'm of the mindset that we need

1899
01:11:16,112 --> 01:11:20,832
something with probably AI that could just go vertical. Then you get into the debate about what

1900
01:11:20,832 --> 01:11:24,692
could that be. I've talked about my ideas from the Edge podcast with Drew. If you haven't listened

1901
01:11:24,692 --> 01:11:28,552
that. There's a lot of ideas in there. But the two ideas that I came up with the most that can

1902
01:11:28,552 --> 01:11:32,672
move the needle, somewhat provocative, but somewhat real. One, on the off chance that

1903
01:11:32,672 --> 01:11:37,512
Andre Carpathy listens to this podcast, you should absolutely, I love XAI, but you should

1904
01:11:37,512 --> 01:11:41,952
absolutely join Block, work with Jack on Goose, try and get this thing adopted. This is a chance

1905
01:11:41,952 --> 01:11:47,172
to save freedom. So that's one move I could see making. The other is Cloudflare. They're in a

1906
01:11:47,172 --> 01:11:51,992
tremendous position to influence the way the internet goes. If they were to adopt L402 instead

1907
01:11:51,992 --> 01:11:55,592
of like some centralized thing for the way agents are paying each other, that could be

1908
01:11:55,592 --> 01:11:59,712
a massive, massive move. But these are just two ideas that come to mind. But my point

1909
01:11:59,712 --> 01:12:03,832
is, I think we have a very limited window to tip the scale and it can't just be, it needs

1910
01:12:03,832 --> 01:12:04,372
to be something big.

1911
01:12:04,372 --> 01:12:09,932
Let's expand on that. So if, let's say the next two years, Bitcoin payments don't become

1912
01:12:09,932 --> 01:12:15,752
everyday money, don't explode, which I'd say is the default base case, that, you know,

1913
01:12:15,772 --> 01:12:20,092
despite we're all working on it, a lot of people are, but that's the base case. In two

1914
01:12:20,092 --> 01:12:25,672
years, why is it inevitable then that it won't happen after that point?

1915
01:12:26,152 --> 01:12:33,592
Well, I mean, my fear is that enough people will either have turned over their keys in

1916
01:12:33,592 --> 01:12:37,452
terms of they want to just do some kind of in-kind redemption into strategy or one of

1917
01:12:37,452 --> 01:12:40,592
these treasury companies because they realize they're going to get better returns that way.

1918
01:12:40,592 --> 01:12:42,312
And so they're willing to sacrifice that.

1919
01:12:43,012 --> 01:12:48,332
Or enough somehow gets centralized that, well, I mean, one of two things, either there's

1920
01:12:48,332 --> 01:12:53,452
the 1984 approach where somehow it becomes harder to hold keys, but you're given tax benefits or

1921
01:12:53,452 --> 01:13:01,712
various slaps to hold an ETFs or MicroStrategy instead. Or the narrative just gets so far pushed

1922
01:13:01,712 --> 01:13:06,632
that no one is even thinking about that. They're already adopting the centralized versions,

1923
01:13:06,752 --> 01:13:09,592
which we'll talk about. Maybe that even comes through kind of like, I don't know,

1924
01:13:09,592 --> 01:13:14,852
stable coins or other centralized providers that get enough adoption while Bitcoin is just getting

1925
01:13:14,852 --> 01:13:18,472
so heavily sucked into the centralized ecosystem that not enough people are experimenting.

1926
01:13:18,752 --> 01:13:20,712
To be clear, I'm not saying it's like 100% checkmate, right?

1927
01:13:20,772 --> 01:13:24,692
Like maybe there is still time, but it just seems like the forces of gravity are Bitcoin

1928
01:13:24,692 --> 01:13:29,432
gets sucked into more centralized providers, more people get either sticks or carrots to

1929
01:13:29,432 --> 01:13:30,272
hand over their keys.

1930
01:13:30,792 --> 01:13:34,372
And at the same time, centralized solutions start getting breakout velocity.

1931
01:13:34,552 --> 01:13:36,192
And it's like people are doing micropayments with dollars.

1932
01:13:36,612 --> 01:13:42,952
So I think to just elaborate on that or expand on that, I don't think it's exactly people

1933
01:13:42,952 --> 01:13:43,992
who hold their keys.

1934
01:13:43,992 --> 01:13:47,192
there's a set of people who have the option to do it.

1935
01:13:47,652 --> 01:13:49,552
So there's obviously a segment of people

1936
01:13:49,552 --> 01:13:51,792
who manage their own private keys.

1937
01:13:52,452 --> 01:13:54,292
There's a segment of people who hold their coins

1938
01:13:54,292 --> 01:13:55,772
on exchanges like Coinbase.

1939
01:13:56,392 --> 01:13:58,712
And if we're looking at percentage of people,

1940
01:13:58,812 --> 01:14:01,532
number of people, a lot more people hold it on exchanges

1941
01:14:01,532 --> 01:14:02,892
than self-custody.

1942
01:14:03,092 --> 01:14:04,752
If we're looking at amount of Bitcoin,

1943
01:14:05,352 --> 01:14:08,052
then the majority is self-custody still.

1944
01:14:08,592 --> 01:14:10,272
But number of people, it's exchanges.

1945
01:14:10,272 --> 01:14:13,412
But at least if you hold it on Coinbase

1946
01:14:13,412 --> 01:14:21,252
or cash app or whatever, you can withdraw. You have that option. And it generally works.

1947
01:14:21,252 --> 01:14:21,552
Yeah.

1948
01:14:22,412 --> 01:14:22,592
Wow.

1949
01:14:22,592 --> 01:14:25,032
Sometimes people run into hiccups, but-

1950
01:14:25,032 --> 01:14:26,452
Cash app meets a few days.

1951
01:14:26,452 --> 01:14:30,972
Yeah, and Coinbase too. I mean, you are beholden to policies and whatever.

1952
01:14:32,332 --> 01:14:41,192
I think the dangerous part is if your Bitcoin is an IOU and you can't withdraw it. And that's

1953
01:14:41,192 --> 01:14:48,432
the case right now with ETFs. It's also the case if you buy strategy or any of these Bitcoin

1954
01:14:48,432 --> 01:14:54,112
treasury companies. And it ultimately becomes the tax trap. Because the tax trap is like,

1955
01:14:54,112 --> 01:15:00,672
I have, let's say I have $10,000 and I make an investment and I buy a BlackRock's ETF or strategy

1956
01:15:00,672 --> 01:15:07,872
doesn't really matter, either one. And then it moons. It goes to $50,000, $100,000. And now I

1957
01:15:07,872 --> 01:15:09,672
I have a huge capital gain.

1958
01:15:10,512 --> 01:15:12,652
But now I've reached a point in my life,

1959
01:15:12,712 --> 01:15:16,752
I actually want some Bitcoin to use as everyday money.

1960
01:15:17,092 --> 01:15:18,992
All of a sudden that's become valuable to me.

1961
01:15:19,392 --> 01:15:21,792
Well, I can't do that with these products,

1962
01:15:22,132 --> 01:15:24,012
at least today's versions of those products.

1963
01:15:24,872 --> 01:15:28,952
And I'm hesitant to, I can't withdraw.

1964
01:15:29,792 --> 01:15:30,172
Bless you.

1965
01:15:31,172 --> 01:15:33,172
But I'm in a tax trap.

1966
01:15:33,292 --> 01:15:33,532
Yeah.

1967
01:15:33,532 --> 01:15:36,232
Because I have to take this massive haircut

1968
01:15:36,232 --> 01:15:41,352
to sell it to turn it into actual Bitcoin that I can use.

1969
01:15:41,352 --> 01:15:44,492
And then it creates significant friction.

1970
01:15:44,712 --> 01:15:48,752
If I have to pay 30, 40, 50% tax

1971
01:15:48,752 --> 01:15:50,892
and lose that much of my Bitcoin just to spend it.

1972
01:15:51,312 --> 01:15:53,372
So I think that's the huge risk.

1973
01:15:53,372 --> 01:15:55,052
This is not here today,

1974
01:15:55,672 --> 01:15:57,792
but this in-kind redemption,

1975
01:15:58,232 --> 01:16:00,672
I think it was, you keep reminding me that it was, I think,

1976
01:16:01,052 --> 01:16:05,512
proposed in January for authorized participants.

1977
01:16:05,512 --> 01:16:07,472
so like the Jane Streets of the world

1978
01:16:07,472 --> 01:16:08,732
for more efficiency

1979
01:16:08,732 --> 01:16:10,692
and it's not yet been proposed

1980
01:16:10,692 --> 01:16:11,692
to make it to retail

1981
01:16:11,692 --> 01:16:16,412
but if you had in-kind creates and redemptions

1982
01:16:16,412 --> 01:16:17,532
to and from retail

1983
01:16:17,532 --> 01:16:21,052
wouldn't that avoid the tax trap on ETFs?

1984
01:16:21,252 --> 01:16:22,092
Yes, but not strategy.

1985
01:16:22,092 --> 01:16:24,732
But microstrategy, you're never going to redeem.

1986
01:16:24,732 --> 01:16:25,892
So something everyone should be

1987
01:16:25,892 --> 01:16:28,632
people who care about the health of Bitcoin long-term

1988
01:16:28,632 --> 01:16:30,592
and this is not just

1989
01:16:30,592 --> 01:16:32,772
I mean, there's a segment of people

1990
01:16:32,772 --> 01:16:33,972
a large segment of people in Bitcoin

1991
01:16:33,972 --> 01:16:35,992
that only care about store value,

1992
01:16:36,152 --> 01:16:36,812
number go up.

1993
01:16:37,152 --> 01:16:38,232
They either believe that

1994
01:16:38,232 --> 01:16:40,232
it'll never become everyday money.

1995
01:16:40,652 --> 01:16:42,392
They don't even care if it does,

1996
01:16:42,472 --> 01:16:44,892
or they think it's like 50 years from now.

1997
01:16:45,372 --> 01:16:46,252
I'm not judging.

1998
01:16:46,372 --> 01:16:47,812
I'm just saying there's a large segment of people

1999
01:16:47,812 --> 01:16:49,472
that are in that camp.

2000
01:16:49,812 --> 01:16:52,152
There's obviously a camp of people

2001
01:16:52,152 --> 01:16:54,752
who work towards this

2002
01:16:54,752 --> 01:16:55,552
or want it to be that

2003
01:16:55,552 --> 01:16:58,852
or believe that's the entire purpose of Bitcoin.

2004
01:17:01,072 --> 01:17:01,972
So I think

2005
01:17:01,972 --> 01:17:06,652
but the point of me saying that

2006
01:17:06,652 --> 01:17:08,492
is that long term

2007
01:17:08,492 --> 01:17:11,292
if Bitcoin loses its core principles

2008
01:17:11,292 --> 01:17:14,192
then everyone will lose.

2009
01:17:14,392 --> 01:17:14,552
Yes.

2010
01:17:14,892 --> 01:17:16,372
And that's one of the things I'd like to...

2011
01:17:16,372 --> 01:17:18,152
And that message doesn't get out enough.

2012
01:17:18,472 --> 01:17:19,152
It doesn't get out enough.

2013
01:17:19,932 --> 01:17:20,732
And I don't think

2014
01:17:20,732 --> 01:17:23,352
most of the people in the camp

2015
01:17:23,352 --> 01:17:25,132
of number go up, store of value

2016
01:17:25,132 --> 01:17:27,652
don't care about everyday money

2017
01:17:27,652 --> 01:17:28,972
don't realize

2018
01:17:28,972 --> 01:17:31,932
that their investment long term

2019
01:17:31,932 --> 01:17:34,332
becomes, I'd call it,

2020
01:17:34,412 --> 01:17:35,352
it's a LARP.

2021
01:17:35,692 --> 01:17:38,352
I mean, David and I talked about this

2022
01:17:38,352 --> 01:17:39,432
when we were mountain biking

2023
01:17:39,432 --> 01:17:41,192
the other day,

2024
01:17:42,252 --> 01:17:44,092
over the weekend,

2025
01:17:44,572 --> 01:17:46,292
that ultimately, to me,

2026
01:17:46,352 --> 01:17:48,492
Bitcoin just becomes like XRP or something.

2027
01:17:49,412 --> 01:17:50,552
It's a spicy take.

2028
01:17:50,912 --> 01:17:52,312
Yeah, because there's

2029
01:17:52,312 --> 01:17:53,132
a million different tokens.

2030
01:17:54,572 --> 01:17:56,092
There's a reason why we are

2031
01:17:56,092 --> 01:17:58,172
diehard Bitcoiners and a lot of other people

2032
01:17:58,172 --> 01:18:00,392
are diehard Bitcoiners. If you've done enough education

2033
01:18:00,392 --> 01:18:05,152
enough work, you understand the distinction and what makes Bitcoin different than all the other

2034
01:18:05,152 --> 01:18:09,692
tokens. And then when you compare different, you know, compared to like Ethereum, it's a little

2035
01:18:09,692 --> 01:18:15,052
bit more interesting debate because Ethereum has a lot of positives to it. But, you know,

2036
01:18:15,532 --> 01:18:21,592
we can certainly lay out why Bitcoin is very highly differentiated to Ethereum and why it stands to

2037
01:18:21,592 --> 01:18:27,452
win in the end. But again, something like XRP, like something that's extremely has all kinds of

2038
01:18:27,452 --> 01:18:29,712
crazy pre-mine token issues

2039
01:18:29,712 --> 01:18:31,972
and centralized. I'm watching the chat now.

2040
01:18:32,972 --> 01:18:33,792
Oh, the army?

2041
01:18:33,932 --> 01:18:35,012
Yes, I'm going to try to mention it.

2042
01:18:35,032 --> 01:18:37,792
Please no, God no. I think we need to tweet

2043
01:18:37,792 --> 01:18:39,712
it out to get a traction, but

2044
01:18:39,712 --> 01:18:41,792
we don't need to do that. Don't do that, Ashu, please.

2045
01:18:42,712 --> 01:18:43,932
We should scroll and see

2046
01:18:43,932 --> 01:18:45,552
what else we're saying. But if

2047
01:18:45,552 --> 01:18:48,052
Bitcoin loses

2048
01:18:48,052 --> 01:18:49,952
core properties such as

2049
01:18:49,952 --> 01:18:51,872
realistic ability

2050
01:18:51,872 --> 01:18:54,092
to self-custody, decentralization,

2051
01:18:54,352 --> 01:18:54,892
privacy,

2052
01:18:54,892 --> 01:18:57,972
I mean, it's not perfect privacy, but the privacy it has.

2053
01:18:58,332 --> 01:18:59,112
Censorship is persistent.

2054
01:18:59,232 --> 01:19:03,832
If it loses those properties, then it's sort of like, okay, it's kind of just another token.

2055
01:19:04,372 --> 01:19:07,072
And I use XRP as an example, but it's just another token.

2056
01:19:07,852 --> 01:19:10,992
So it's no longer like, why is it distinct?

2057
01:19:11,092 --> 01:19:17,112
Why does it deserve this multi-trillion dollar valuation compared to thousands or millions of other coins we can create, mean coins or whatever?

2058
01:19:17,112 --> 01:19:37,052
So I think that everyone, definitely including the people who are in it for the investment, need to care about this. So important things to monitor and everyone, including big money, needs to advocate for is in-kind redemptions and not in-kind redemptions just for institutional investors, in-kind redemptions for everyone.

2059
01:19:37,052 --> 01:19:40,032
and so if we got that

2060
01:19:40,032 --> 01:19:41,132
then that

2061
01:19:41,132 --> 01:19:44,052
that basically addresses

2062
01:19:44,052 --> 01:19:45,732
that risk with ETFs

2063
01:19:45,732 --> 01:19:47,512
but then we're talking about the

2064
01:19:47,512 --> 01:19:48,732
Bitcoin treasury companies

2065
01:19:48,732 --> 01:19:51,672
and millions of Bitcoin

2066
01:19:51,672 --> 01:19:53,192
being sucked into those

2067
01:19:53,192 --> 01:19:55,552
if they don't have an in-kind

2068
01:19:55,552 --> 01:19:57,852
redemption then that's the same

2069
01:19:57,852 --> 01:19:59,112
tax trap risk

2070
01:19:59,112 --> 01:20:01,632
and I see it as less

2071
01:20:01,632 --> 01:20:02,992
clear to me

2072
01:20:02,992 --> 01:20:06,012
what's the motive, first of all

2073
01:20:06,012 --> 01:20:09,792
what's the motivation for strategy to offer that?

2074
01:20:09,972 --> 01:20:11,552
Because they have all these complicated

2075
01:20:11,552 --> 01:20:13,472
financial engineering mechanisms

2076
01:20:13,472 --> 01:20:15,492
and it's very important to them to have

2077
01:20:15,492 --> 01:20:17,492
maximizing

2078
01:20:17,492 --> 01:20:18,972
Bitcoin AUM.

2079
01:20:19,432 --> 01:20:20,932
I don't think they would ever have.

2080
01:20:20,992 --> 01:20:22,372
So I don't see the motivation for it.

2081
01:20:22,852 --> 01:20:24,932
So to me, that is

2082
01:20:24,932 --> 01:20:27,912
the pinpointing of the threat

2083
01:20:27,912 --> 01:20:29,812
that Bitcoin

2084
01:20:29,812 --> 01:20:31,712
treasury company strategy is the leader

2085
01:20:31,712 --> 01:20:33,752
there, sucking up all this

2086
01:20:33,752 --> 01:20:35,812
Bitcoin, no ability

2087
01:20:35,812 --> 01:20:38,512
for any shareholder to access that Bitcoin.

2088
01:20:39,092 --> 01:20:42,952
It's a tax trap that creates enough economic friction

2089
01:20:42,952 --> 01:20:44,992
so that those people never use it.

2090
01:20:45,892 --> 01:20:46,292
It's alcohol.

2091
01:20:46,392 --> 01:20:47,092
It's everyday money.

2092
01:20:47,312 --> 01:20:48,992
Yeah, that's correct.

2093
01:20:49,172 --> 01:20:50,012
And then, okay,

2094
01:20:50,172 --> 01:20:53,192
and then another part of this concern

2095
01:20:53,192 --> 01:20:57,352
is that anyone who monitors the mempool of Bitcoin,

2096
01:20:57,452 --> 01:20:58,112
like the Bitcoin network,

2097
01:20:58,112 --> 01:21:00,692
how many transactions are there

2098
01:21:00,692 --> 01:21:02,932
trying to be transacted on the Bitcoin network,

2099
01:21:02,932 --> 01:21:11,552
which is distinct from the price or how many people own bitcoin or even use bitcoin because

2100
01:21:11,552 --> 01:21:16,772
if you use bitcoin and it's purely on a custodial platform and never has to touch

2101
01:21:16,772 --> 01:21:22,332
the the bitcoin network well then there's no activity in the bitcoin network so if you monitor

2102
01:21:22,332 --> 01:21:27,252
the the bitcoin network and and the mempool for people not familiar with that is just simply the

2103
01:21:27,252 --> 01:21:32,952
queue of transactions that have been broadcasted globally that want to get transacted and

2104
01:21:32,952 --> 01:21:33,712
ultimately mined.

2105
01:21:34,732 --> 01:21:40,412
That has historically been, well, first of all, the fee markets, the fees you have to

2106
01:21:40,412 --> 01:21:42,512
pay for a transaction have historically been quite low.

2107
01:21:43,272 --> 01:21:48,612
Most of the money made by miners is through the Coinbase reward, the subsidy, the minting

2108
01:21:48,612 --> 01:21:49,552
of new Bitcoin.

2109
01:21:49,692 --> 01:21:51,612
As we know, that goes to zero.

2110
01:21:51,612 --> 01:21:57,152
So for Bitcoin to thrive long term, there has to be a thriving fee market.

2111
01:21:57,592 --> 01:22:05,072
There needs to be strong demand to broadcast transactions and enough so that people are competing to get into the next block and pay a lot of money.

2112
01:22:05,432 --> 01:22:11,492
Otherwise, there'll be no economic incentive for miners and the entire security model gets destroyed.

2113
01:22:11,932 --> 01:22:12,952
Here's a spicy question.

2114
01:22:13,112 --> 01:22:18,892
I'm just curious, but like, doesn't Lightning kind of limit the need to have transactions through the mempool?

2115
01:22:19,012 --> 01:22:19,792
Yes and no.

2116
01:22:19,792 --> 01:22:27,952
So, I mean, yes, it's true that like if we open a lightning channel, you and I can transact infinitely back and forth and never touch the chain again.

2117
01:22:28,072 --> 01:22:29,872
We only had one on-chain transaction.

2118
01:22:30,472 --> 01:22:36,952
But on the flip side, anyone who studied lightning, another criticism is it doesn't scale because it takes up too much block space.

2119
01:22:37,432 --> 01:22:40,332
And you constantly rebalance the channels if you need to reopen or close them.

2120
01:22:40,352 --> 01:22:44,952
Like lightning as it's currently, the protocol is currently constructed, can't be used by the world.

2121
01:22:44,952 --> 01:23:01,092
Because if 8 billion people use lightning channels, there's not enough block space to open those lightning channels. So it actually would overwhelm demand for block space. So while it does create this efficiency layer, if Bitcoin payments take off, it creates on-chain demand.

2122
01:23:01,092 --> 01:23:16,592
But lightning, there's a lot of lightning transactions. My understanding is that from any kind of triangulation you can make on lightning, it's growing quite well. It's small but growing. And so is it, my understanding is like the mempool and Bitcoin block transactions are not growing.

2123
01:23:16,592 --> 01:23:30,512
I think the explanation is clear there. So it's still tiny. And it's not enough to dent into the, I think a reduction in demand for block space is ETF, introduction to ETFs.

2124
01:23:30,512 --> 01:23:51,492
So there's a shift of incoming capital is going to ETFs, which don't hit the chain at all. And people are doing less like buying on Coinbase, moving those coins to Kraken to like buy some other coins or trade or whatever, or move it to self-custody or whatever. There's less of that. There's more ETF buying.

2125
01:23:51,492 --> 01:24:20,192
So that reduced demand dramatically, and the lightning growth pales in comparison to that reduction, despite the growth of lightning payments. So if that continues to grow at the rate it's growing, absolutely it will increase the demand for block space, and then great, problem solved. Whether it's lightning, ARC, Spark, there's all kinds of different technologies that facilitate payments, but it just requires a much bigger payment growth than the tiny market we have.

2126
01:24:20,192 --> 01:24:22,132
And to be clear, I mean, I definitely think it is part of it.

2127
01:24:22,172 --> 01:24:23,992
I agree ETFs are probably a much bigger part.

2128
01:24:24,092 --> 01:24:26,432
Like, yes, like short term, it sucks some volume off the chain.

2129
01:24:26,472 --> 01:24:29,232
But my guess is that a lot of the stuff that's happening at Lightning is net new.

2130
01:24:29,692 --> 01:24:33,892
Like, for example, the Zaps on Nostra, I imagine just would not happen if there was another network.

2131
01:24:34,612 --> 01:24:39,392
And also, like a lot of these guys, like, again, they're constantly opening and closing channels and rebalancing things, too.

2132
01:24:39,452 --> 01:24:43,132
So, like, there's still a decent amount of on-chain activity that exists today that is probably.

2133
01:24:43,232 --> 01:24:44,492
Let's take that example, though.

2134
01:24:44,492 --> 01:24:50,412
But like Nostra's apps, Stacker News apps, they don't impact the on-chain hardly at all.

2135
01:24:50,412 --> 01:24:57,272
Because the predominant amount, the vast majority of his apps are from custodial wallets.

2136
01:24:58,092 --> 01:25:00,372
And those custodial wallets just have a few lightning channels.

2137
01:25:00,612 --> 01:25:03,672
So they've just done a few on-chain transactions, tiny.

2138
01:25:04,032 --> 01:25:05,772
And yet there can be like millions of zaps.

2139
01:25:06,252 --> 01:25:08,692
So the footprint on-chain is very tiny there.

2140
01:25:08,692 --> 01:25:26,152
But again, if we see hyper growth of Bitcoin payments on any kind of, and as long as those payments are done, there's a sufficient amount of like inter-system payments.

2141
01:25:26,152 --> 01:25:43,772
So it's not just one company's effectively custodial system. As long as there's enough interplay there, then we will see a material footprint on chain. And then the Bitcoin network is healthy. There'll be a healthy fee market. It all works out.

2142
01:25:43,772 --> 01:26:07,932
But the long-term risk here is that so much Bitcoin gets sucked into strategy and Bitcoin treasury companies. And number one, either Bitcoin's everyday money never takes off. And then the Bitcoin network just has no activity. And there's already people calling for creating tail emission. There's a concern that miners aren't going to have an incentive to mine once the minting of Bitcoin trends towards zero.

2143
01:26:07,932 --> 01:26:13,752
so in I mean even at the quantum bitcoin event there was one person saying that in eight years

2144
01:26:13,752 --> 01:26:19,392
if we don't see growth of bitcoin payments or something that creates sustainable demand for

2145
01:26:19,392 --> 01:26:24,792
the network that we're going to have to introduce tail emission I think that's I think it's more of a

2146
01:26:24,792 --> 01:26:31,392
15 to 20 year time frame where it starts to get concerning not eight years but either way that

2147
01:26:31,392 --> 01:26:36,392
narrative will only grow louder so you're saying the degenes are our only hope

2148
01:26:36,392 --> 01:26:44,732
well that's i i don't know if it's sustainable sustainable then uh mempool or you know block

2149
01:26:44,732 --> 01:26:52,872
space demand um so the concern is that whether it's eight years or 15 or 20 years that the voices

2150
01:26:52,872 --> 01:26:59,392
will grow louder saying like hey miners aren't making much money a whole the whole in an entire

2151
01:26:59,392 --> 01:27:03,932
premise of bitcoin is that the security model we need an incentive economic incentive for miners

2152
01:27:03,932 --> 01:27:09,952
and everyone's like, well, the fee market ain't happening. Everyday money ain't happening. So

2153
01:27:09,952 --> 01:27:15,512
how do we address this? Well, we change Bitcoin to introduce continuing a tail emission,

2154
01:27:15,692 --> 01:27:22,292
continuing to pay a subsidy to miners, which would of course change the supply gap of 21 million.

2155
01:27:22,292 --> 01:27:29,292
Now there's an alternative that was discussed at the quantum Bitcoin event, which is like,

2156
01:27:29,292 --> 01:27:35,072
well, there's all these like presumed lost coins or these coins that ultimately don't make the

2157
01:27:35,072 --> 01:27:39,772
transition to post-quantum Bitcoin. So we'll take all those, burn them. I mean, definitely

2158
01:27:39,772 --> 01:27:45,152
one of the key questions of how to deal with quantum, if we need to deal with quantum,

2159
01:27:45,772 --> 01:27:53,272
is do we burn these coins that will be stolen by a quantum computer? If we do burn them,

2160
01:27:53,272 --> 01:27:59,772
one proposal is to take them and recycle them into an incentive program for miners. So that,

2161
01:27:59,872 --> 01:28:03,672
that would be a source of tail emission. And the beauty of that is that there's,

2162
01:28:03,792 --> 01:28:09,932
we're not touching the 21 million. But at best, I think that can be argued. I mean,

2163
01:28:09,932 --> 01:28:13,352
first of all, you can get a philosophical arguments of burning the coins, but if we just set that

2164
01:28:13,352 --> 01:28:17,472
aside, assuming everyone's decided we're going to burn the coins, we burn the coins. Now, what do

2165
01:28:17,472 --> 01:28:21,532
we do to them? Literally keep them burned or recycle? A nice thing about that is that like,

2166
01:28:21,532 --> 01:28:27,352
okay great we we aren't touching the 21 million narrative but it's a stopgap it's a band-aid right

2167
01:28:27,352 --> 01:28:31,752
because it's okay once all that's issued out then we reach a point again if there's not bitcoin

2168
01:28:31,752 --> 01:28:37,252
network activity there's not fees okay now we need to expand the 21 million so it would hurt

2169
01:28:37,252 --> 01:28:43,592
if that were ever introduced it would in my opinion substantially hurt the credibility of

2170
01:28:43,592 --> 01:28:49,272
any kind of statement saying like yes in 50 years there'll still be this the same monetary policy

2171
01:28:49,272 --> 01:28:51,412
is today. It becomes Ethereum. I think it kills it.

2172
01:28:51,412 --> 01:28:53,512
To me, like one of the... You can't compromise

2173
01:28:53,512 --> 01:28:55,452
neutrality. A top three, you can argue it's number

2174
01:28:55,452 --> 01:28:56,812
one, but a top three

2175
01:28:56,812 --> 01:28:59,292
tenant of Bitcoin is the

2176
01:28:59,292 --> 01:29:01,392
monetary policy that was set forth

2177
01:29:01,392 --> 01:29:03,432
on day one is the same

2178
01:29:03,432 --> 01:29:05,272
as today. And I

2179
01:29:05,272 --> 01:29:07,152
can credibly believe that in

2180
01:29:07,152 --> 01:29:08,892
50 years it'll be the same.

2181
01:29:09,292 --> 01:29:11,392
There's a strong, I mean, we're talking about risks

2182
01:29:11,392 --> 01:29:13,172
to this, right? But we still believe there's a

2183
01:29:13,172 --> 01:29:15,272
high probability it's going to be the same in 50

2184
01:29:15,272 --> 01:29:17,392
years. But it's really important, but that's

2185
01:29:17,392 --> 01:29:18,772
not a guarantee, right? It's not a certainty.

2186
01:29:18,772 --> 01:29:41,112
It's really important for us to talk about and reason about how could that not be the case. So I think a huge risk is we don't see sufficient Bitcoin network activity. We don't see sufficient fees from transactions as the subsidy declines towards zero. Growing louder voices that will be appealing to people to change the monetary policy of Bitcoin.

2187
01:29:41,112 --> 01:29:45,592
and I don't think we want to reach that future

2188
01:29:45,592 --> 01:29:47,472
because then if we get to that point too,

2189
01:29:47,552 --> 01:29:48,472
then investors will be like,

2190
01:29:48,552 --> 01:29:49,712
what did I invest in again?

2191
01:29:49,832 --> 01:29:51,892
I thought the normal reason I invested

2192
01:29:51,892 --> 01:29:53,112
is that that doesn't change.

2193
01:29:53,752 --> 01:29:55,572
I said this kind of jokingly,

2194
01:29:55,612 --> 01:29:58,292
but I actually kind of want to double down on this right now,

2195
01:29:58,332 --> 01:30:00,572
which is that the irony is the most hardcore

2196
01:30:00,572 --> 01:30:04,172
Bitcoin is money people really probably need the DGENs,

2197
01:30:04,412 --> 01:30:05,132
at least short term.

2198
01:30:05,132 --> 01:30:07,712
I hope we find one of these AI breakout cases,

2199
01:30:07,832 --> 01:30:09,952
but the reality is Bitcoin got started

2200
01:30:09,952 --> 01:30:11,492
it is gray to dark market money.

2201
01:30:12,012 --> 01:30:13,532
And if you really want it to survive,

2202
01:30:13,572 --> 01:30:14,292
no matter what,

2203
01:30:14,352 --> 01:30:15,452
I'm not saying necessarily dark,

2204
01:30:15,532 --> 01:30:16,332
but like it should be at least,

2205
01:30:16,412 --> 01:30:17,452
I mean, in gray areas,

2206
01:30:17,572 --> 01:30:18,452
that's where Bitcoin thrives.

2207
01:30:18,492 --> 01:30:19,112
We were talking about last night,

2208
01:30:19,152 --> 01:30:19,932
like when do you use stablecoin?

2209
01:30:19,932 --> 01:30:21,392
Maybe I didn't interpret your D-gen.

2210
01:30:21,492 --> 01:30:23,452
I thought you meant like ordinals and runes.

2211
01:30:23,612 --> 01:30:23,812
I do.

2212
01:30:23,952 --> 01:30:25,032
I mean that, but to me,

2213
01:30:25,032 --> 01:30:27,732
there's that and there's also like dark markets.

2214
01:30:28,032 --> 01:30:30,032
Yeah, well, so I'm talking more about the runes

2215
01:30:30,032 --> 01:30:31,352
and the gray, let's say gray area.

2216
01:30:31,692 --> 01:30:33,972
But like what I'm saying is like,

2217
01:30:34,032 --> 01:30:34,452
for the people like,

2218
01:30:34,512 --> 01:30:35,632
oh no, it's money and this and that.

2219
01:30:35,692 --> 01:30:36,032
It's like, dude,

2220
01:30:36,652 --> 01:30:38,652
the gamblers are the ones who are operating

2221
01:30:38,652 --> 01:30:41,632
in this like liminal space between what is and is not allowed.

2222
01:30:41,892 --> 01:30:46,632
And like the gamblers and like the kind of the guys living on the riverboat, those are

2223
01:30:46,632 --> 01:30:50,272
the ones that keep Bitcoin what it is without the without the riverboat people.

2224
01:30:50,752 --> 01:30:54,192
I mean, it's I mean, your point that, you know, it gets captured and then loses all

2225
01:30:54,192 --> 01:30:54,672
of its value.

2226
01:30:54,672 --> 01:30:56,112
Like that's that's a real risk.

2227
01:30:56,452 --> 01:31:01,292
Well, my my optimism and I know we're kind of running over time now, so we'll we'll draw

2228
01:31:01,292 --> 01:31:01,672
to the close.

2229
01:31:01,732 --> 01:31:08,352
But my optimism is that I think there are a billion people who are newly enabled to build

2230
01:31:08,352 --> 01:31:14,832
things yes and they didn't know how to build things before but they had ideas now they're able

2231
01:31:14,832 --> 01:31:21,172
to build things and there needs to be money transactions when people build things because

2232
01:31:21,172 --> 01:31:25,892
like you know running these models there's a cost to and keeping these things alive and then the

2233
01:31:25,892 --> 01:31:31,052
value you create and the things that you build get paid by other people and so instead of saying like

2234
01:31:31,052 --> 01:31:37,272
let's evolve the existing world to use bitcoin mostly i think it's great that people do that

2235
01:31:37,272 --> 01:31:42,412
but i think the growth and my optimism for the growth and kind of hitting these j curves

2236
01:31:42,412 --> 01:31:48,512
and kind of these exponentials is that things that could never be built or were not like all

2237
01:31:48,512 --> 01:31:54,612
of the ideas and the creativity of humanity has not been applied to building the ways that bitcoin

2238
01:31:54,612 --> 01:31:59,692
could and would be used and now we've unlocked that yeah that's possible so like the next

2239
01:31:59,692 --> 01:32:05,372
is it 18 months is it 24 months when you have a billion people building applications some of them

2240
01:32:05,372 --> 01:32:07,252
are going to figure out interesting things to do with Bitcoin.

2241
01:32:07,432 --> 01:32:08,532
Which is why I come back.

2242
01:32:08,612 --> 01:32:10,272
I agree with you, and I love that optimism.

2243
01:32:10,552 --> 01:32:11,992
You and Ben are making me feel a lot better.

2244
01:32:12,112 --> 01:32:13,172
You made me feel a little bit more scared.

2245
01:32:13,172 --> 01:32:17,412
But I mean, I said this jokingly, but I actually mean it.

2246
01:32:17,452 --> 01:32:20,352
That's why we need something big like Carpathia to come work on.

2247
01:32:20,732 --> 01:32:24,192
And increasingly getting the goose people working with Bitcoin people,

2248
01:32:24,312 --> 01:32:26,072
I think that's probably our number one shot

2249
01:32:26,072 --> 01:32:28,452
at not having this dystopian future.

2250
01:32:28,812 --> 01:32:29,472
And I agree.

2251
01:32:30,032 --> 01:32:31,332
Net-net, I'm optimistic.

2252
01:32:32,432 --> 01:32:34,112
I'd probably just quit and work on something else

2253
01:32:34,112 --> 01:32:35,552
if I thought it was all going to fail, right?

2254
01:32:35,592 --> 01:32:37,252
So I agree with that point, David.

2255
01:32:38,272 --> 01:32:40,012
And we just need to like triple down on it.

2256
01:32:40,272 --> 01:32:40,712
Make it happen.

2257
01:32:41,132 --> 01:32:42,532
But we actually have,

2258
01:32:42,592 --> 01:32:44,552
like we have even more risks to talk about.

2259
01:32:44,652 --> 01:32:45,032
So we're going to,

2260
01:32:45,092 --> 01:32:46,292
we'll tackle that either next week

2261
01:32:46,292 --> 01:32:47,672
or in a future PBJ episode.

2262
01:32:48,012 --> 01:32:49,492
It's super important for us to

2263
01:32:49,492 --> 01:32:51,092
think through all the risks,

2264
01:32:51,252 --> 01:32:53,192
be critical, critical analysis,

2265
01:32:53,352 --> 01:32:53,952
be honest.

2266
01:32:55,292 --> 01:32:56,772
So that, you know,

2267
01:32:56,912 --> 01:32:59,732
both to like communicate and educate people,

2268
01:33:00,012 --> 01:33:00,712
hear from people,

2269
01:33:01,032 --> 01:33:03,312
you know, where are we wrong in our analysis?

2270
01:33:04,112 --> 01:33:06,512
But then also like come up with solutions, right?

2271
01:33:06,832 --> 01:33:07,692
Which we're already doing,

2272
01:33:07,792 --> 01:33:10,872
but like improve how we're working to solve this.

2273
01:33:10,872 --> 01:33:11,552
One other thought,

2274
01:33:11,692 --> 01:33:13,032
just while we're on that subject,

2275
01:33:13,132 --> 01:33:14,092
you've said this many times

2276
01:33:14,092 --> 01:33:15,912
and maybe you're even the guy to experience this

2277
01:33:15,912 --> 01:33:16,792
because you're so deep in there.

2278
01:33:16,912 --> 01:33:17,572
I also agree with you

2279
01:33:17,572 --> 01:33:19,452
in addition to just like vibe coding and stuff,

2280
01:33:20,032 --> 01:33:22,872
increasingly I think it's going to be something with games

2281
01:33:22,872 --> 01:33:24,612
that like probably young people are embracing.

2282
01:33:25,092 --> 01:33:26,772
You know, yesterday without doxing anyone,

2283
01:33:26,872 --> 01:33:28,392
there was a very sharp young guy

2284
01:33:28,392 --> 01:33:30,872
who told me he's been to Bitcoin for like 15 years.

2285
01:33:30,952 --> 01:33:32,152
I'm like, but that would make you like 12.

2286
01:33:32,152 --> 01:33:32,912
And he was like, that's right.

2287
01:33:33,192 --> 01:33:33,532
And I was like,

2288
01:33:33,532 --> 01:33:34,452
how did you even get started?

2289
01:33:34,812 --> 01:33:38,792
And the sort of like implication was he to like steal his dad's passport to get started, right?

2290
01:33:38,912 --> 01:33:45,112
So like, I do think the like Skibbity Cash that Block was working on and like all this stuff to get like young people,

2291
01:33:45,472 --> 01:33:47,132
because young people are also unbanked, right?

2292
01:33:47,312 --> 01:33:49,532
And I mean, I'm becoming a Skibbity maximalist here.

2293
01:33:49,592 --> 01:33:51,192
Like I actually think our best shot at-

2294
01:33:51,192 --> 01:33:54,452
Just to be clear, I don't think Block worked on Skibbity.

2295
01:33:54,732 --> 01:33:58,412
I think a Block employee may have contributed personally.

2296
01:33:59,132 --> 01:34:02,532
A Spiral grantee and a Spiral employee worked on that project.

2297
01:34:02,532 --> 01:34:02,972
Fair enough.

2298
01:34:02,972 --> 01:34:04,192
regardless,

2299
01:34:04,572 --> 01:34:05,152
uh,

2300
01:34:05,172 --> 01:34:06,392
whoever did it is,

2301
01:34:06,472 --> 01:34:07,032
is a legend.

2302
01:34:07,672 --> 01:34:08,072
And,

2303
01:34:08,072 --> 01:34:08,772
uh,

2304
01:34:08,812 --> 01:34:11,072
I actually think that's our best shot is like,

2305
01:34:11,092 --> 01:34:13,712
if we get the kids gaming with this stuff and remember kids are in bank,

2306
01:34:13,752 --> 01:34:16,112
like this guy's having to steal his dad's passport to participate.

2307
01:34:16,392 --> 01:34:16,712
Great.

2308
01:34:16,792 --> 01:34:17,612
There's a market like,

2309
01:34:17,912 --> 01:34:19,072
there's so much energy.

2310
01:34:19,212 --> 01:34:19,352
You know,

2311
01:34:19,372 --> 01:34:20,172
you look at Roblox,

2312
01:34:20,212 --> 01:34:21,212
like if you're a 12 year old kid,

2313
01:34:21,232 --> 01:34:22,392
you have no way to earn money.

2314
01:34:22,392 --> 01:34:22,632
So,

2315
01:34:22,632 --> 01:34:24,632
so these 12 year old kids and they're smart,

2316
01:34:24,712 --> 01:34:28,172
build a game on Roblox and make money doing that.

2317
01:34:28,392 --> 01:34:29,752
Like that's actually a credible way,

2318
01:34:29,812 --> 01:34:29,952
you know,

2319
01:34:29,952 --> 01:34:30,732
better than a paper route.

2320
01:34:30,772 --> 01:34:32,652
And they could probably do a lot better than their parents in the new

2321
01:34:32,652 --> 01:34:39,452
economy so yeah so call it all right that was great great show yeah love jamming in the ice

2322
01:34:39,452 --> 01:34:41,712
good to see you all right bye bye