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All right, welcome to the Presidio Bitcoin Jam.

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Presidio Bitcoin Jam.

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How are you guys doing?

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Doing great.

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How are you?

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I'm doing awesome.

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I definitely still on a high, a little tired, but on a high from the Quantum Summit, which has been awesome.

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It's been a fantastic two days.

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It's crazy.

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Crazy.

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That's why we're doing the show a little later than usual.

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Not because we came into the office late, but because we wrapped up the Quantum Bitcoin Summit.

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We're still out having a picnic right now.

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Yeah.

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We're skipping the picnic to come do...

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Bummer.

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Just for the, just for our audience.

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We're going to hang out with all of you guys.

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Yeah.

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We've also been hanging out with these people for the last 36 hours, so it's good.

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So what, what, what was the Quantum Bitcoin Summit at Presidio Bitcoin?

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Who wants to tackle that?

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Well, so Presidio Bitcoin was hosting the Quantum Bitcoin Summit.

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And, you know, this question has been coming up a lot.

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I think we've talked about it over the, over months and stuff.

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Specifically.

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With Willow.

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The Willow thing.

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In December, I think we covered it.

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Wow.

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One of our early topics.

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That feels like a year ago.

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But people keep asking, right?

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People are like, well, what's the deal with quantum?

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And is this a real risk to the future of Bitcoin?

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And so I don't know if you proposed it or how it all came together, but there's a, you

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know, at Procedo Bitcoin, the last day and a half has been a bunch of leading crypto

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quantum computing experts have come in.

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And then we've got a bunch of quantum Bitcoin experts and builders.

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And we sort of got everybody together and learned a lot from the presentations, gathered together to discuss and sort of do breakouts and just a lot of just hanging out and meeting people in general, just conversation around this topic.

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um so my i mean my kind of understanding from hearing what i heard was like certainly there's

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a lot of good discussion going on probably need to kind of keep the cadence of this because

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we're not in a problem state right now but we want to be we want to be aware and ready and kind of

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like have some cohesion and network of how to discuss these and who are the experts and who to

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bring together um so i didn't feel like it's like oh alarmist this is happening next month let's all

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change but it's like hey if this were to happen over the course of the next two years or five

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years or seven or eight years how do we think about laying the foundation and making the kinds

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of changes and what kinds of compromises or changes will we need to make to make bitcoin

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secure and safe in a world there's certainly everything's compromises everything's trade-offs

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Let me ask you guys, I mean, there's several different difficult questions with this topic. One is if and when cryptographically relevant quantum computing will even exist. I'm curious for each of you having now attended this event, do you believe it's going to happen sooner than you previously thought or farther away than you previously thought?

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or unchanged? Yeah. So I'll preface this by saying I'm obviously not a quantum expert. I think it's

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fascinating. And one of my big takeaways from, you know, the whole, I guess, summit is I want to

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learn a lot more about quantum in general. Not just quantum computing, which I think is a really

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fascinating application, but also just, I had some very interesting conversations with some of the

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folks around like, why does quantum computing even work? And I have a few physicists and philosophers

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I need to go deeper on. And anyways, adding to my stack of books, but in terms of the short-term

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stuff, you know, I would say I am leaving roughly the same in terms of my concern level, maybe

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slightly, I would say I have a slightly more accelerated view of how quickly this thing

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could go. So in general, I mean, for me, like the biggest sort of like alpha of the whole event was

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the PsyQuantum CTO, the guy he presented. PsyQuantum, for those of you who don't know, is

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apparently, I mean, it's a private company, but they've raised from like BlackRock and like all

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of the major, major, you know, institutional funds, founders funds in there. And, um, it,

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from, from everything I'm hearing, they're apparently the leader. Like I've, I've heard

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credible sources claim they're even ahead of Google, which sounds pretty, pretty crazy to me.

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But if that's the case, then we just got to hear from one of the leaders in the whole field,

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which was really, really interesting. And one of the things that, you know, both he and there was

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another quantum researcher for his show, I think, um, who was also very interesting. And, you know,

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they both kind of seem to like converge on a five year ish timeframe, um, that like, okay,

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we're probably going to have something that could break ECDSA,

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which is the specific cryptography that Bitcoin uses for key addresses.

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And both were kind of in that 2030 timeframe.

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Show said five years.

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I forget the other guy's name now, the CTO.

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What's his name? Matt? No.

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Terry.

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Terry, thank you.

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Five years one day.

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Five years one day, exactly, which is a very...

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Price is right.

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Price is right.

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Yeah, exactly.

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So I thought they kind of converged on that,

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which was interesting to me.

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However, I chatted with Terry a little bit afterwards

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And this is eventually a topic we're going to discuss later today, which is like, hey, Terry, imagine a world where energy is free, the marginal cost of electricity is effectively zero, and you could wave a magic wand.

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How would you sprint to get there faster?

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And there's two kinds of fields of quantum computing that he was most excited about.

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There's the traditional cold cubic quantum computing, which requires what he said is a fundamental breakthrough in refrigeration that we don't have yet.

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So you can't just throw electricity at it.

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And then the other one, what they're doing, which is photonics. And with photonics, I was kind of asking, what is the big bottleneck? And one of the bottlenecks that came out was robotics to connect chips to fiber. And I'm assuming this is happening at a very, very small scale. And so that to me was very interesting because I was like, if that's the case, that seems like a solvable problem.

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And if it's a solvable problem and it's a problem solved by robotics, I think one thing that no one was sort of like bullish enough on at the summit was how progress in traditional AI and robotics could potentially accelerate that timeline.

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So imagine a world where Elon drops another new robot that can do the sort of chip attachment at a thousand X faster rate.

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Well, then all of a sudden my sort of like gut intuition is that 2030 timeline, maybe that could be 2027 or 2028.

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So anyways, long story short, I think I'm probably just from everything I learned,

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I think it's going to happen sooner than we think.

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However, I'm also not that worried because, you know, I'm sure we'll go into more details on this,

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but like, I think we can have post-quantum, you know, address types.

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Yes, they're going to be fatter, you know, whatever, thicker for the blockchain.

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But like, it's not an unsolvable problem.

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And I'm also kind of of the camp and remain of the camp that like the old addresses,

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you just let it lie, free markets are going to free market,

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and there's a bounty for people to develop a quantum computer.

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So those are my takeaways.

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Yeah, I'm kind of similar that, I mean, I think my default position is that it's always hard to predict the pace of technology adoption and sort of technology breakthroughs. You know, I think I remember back, was it like Craig Venter trying to map the human genome and they were saying this is going to take 20 years and then it was done like, you know, a year or two later or something, you know, in the 90s.

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But that kind of pattern seems to repeat again and again. You know, Transformers, the paper came out in 2017. Nothing much happened. It was kind of slower than you might expect if you were really paying attention. But then when it happened, it was it happens and it happens and it happens again so quickly when it when a breakthrough finally occurs. And so I think like trying to handicap exactly when it is like I think it's not tomorrow, but it's far enough away.

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um you know but but like five years still seems about right something in that range um the thing

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that i was trying to get more clarity from is it is it sia the the guy who is the one ceo that you

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mentioned show show okay um what was that company do you remember the name of it no block q block

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q yeah so he was kind of starting from the point of like you know there are about a hundred thousand

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physicists in the world who could do this kind of work or like maybe he said a hundred thousand

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physicists in the world and so i was asking him are we mostly bottlenecked by like thinking

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algorithms new approaches or are we bottlenecked by like the physical like the refrigeration the

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photonics the connectivity and like physical world stuff and he had not really sort of imagined what

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happened if we had a million physicists and it's like on the information side of it right and so

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if we had a million physicists,

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will we get that special move from AlphaGo

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where it actually, it doesn't

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quite make sense to us intuitively, but once you see it,

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you're like, oh, I get it. Okay, that's how it's done.

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And where might we get a million physicists from?

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Yeah, exactly, right? So, AI.

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Million physicists

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are coming from Jensen Huang.

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So,

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I think it's

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hard to handicap these things. Five years

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feels about right, but I actually am

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quite happy that we

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all got together and heard all the people who would know the most about this and i didn't feel

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like anybody was panicked but everybody feels like they're well you know networked now and able

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know who to go to to get feedback on stuff and to discuss so i i would say like i'm i come out

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with more confidence that like we've got our best people kind of engaged in it i think the

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five-year timeline is like

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hyper-aggressive.

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So I

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thought before and still think

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it's going to be much longer

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than that. Certainly acknowledging

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A, not an expert on quantum

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computers,

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and B, just we're all

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uncertain. I mean, I agree, it could

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happen fast.

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I just don't think that

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happening fast moment

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is going to be in five years,

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I would still think it's 15 or 20 years away.

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If it does happen in five years...

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I'm glad we have this recorded.

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Yeah, exactly.

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We're on the record now.

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If it does happen in five years,

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then that'll be very disruptive for the whole world,

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even beyond Bitcoin,

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but certainly disrupt Bitcoin.

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I don't think the world would be prepared for it.

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it'd be quite bad.

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And then for

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Bitcoin,

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I definitely feel way more confident

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today

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than two days ago

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and much more confident than

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six months ago

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in terms of like

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the level of thought,

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the quality of people thinking about

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this problem.

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At least from my own

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awareness has gone from like almost no one

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to some people I already know

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and have respect for that are thinking about it,

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developing good proposals.

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And like what we covered in the event

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is like outlined all the big questions and problems.

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And each one, we have several proposals,

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none of which are fully fleshed out.

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That's why if we need to do something

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in the next five years,

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it's going to be chaos.

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And as long as we have enough,

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if it happens as soon as five years,

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but we have enough of it,

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head start to like start making decisions.

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I think we'll get to the other side,

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but it'll be like a very hamstrung Bitcoin.

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Like we'll lose, you know,

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we'll lose multi-sig and like HD wallets

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and like these just foundational things

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that we use today,

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but they weren't in the original Bitcoin either.

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So it's almost like a reset in many ways

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of Bitcoin, the network and technology.

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That doesn't necessarily reset the,

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price or the market that's developed.

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So I think we can get to the other side.

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But what would be much better and smoother

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would be we get another 10 to 15 years of

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post-quantum cryptography R&D

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so that we're not having transitioned to

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relatively clunky cryptography.

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And when I say clunky, relative to what we're using today in Bitcoin

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and be able to utilize all that progress,

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which I'm sure is inevitable.

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Because there's going to be progress

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and AI is going to help us there probably.

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Energy's going to get really cheap, right?

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So, yeah, anyway, I still think it's like,

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I would be pretty stressed if it's five years away.

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But one big takeaway I would say,

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you know, seemed to be how do you get to consensus,

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which is a topic you've written about a lot

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and thought about a lot.

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but like how do you convince enough people that it is a problem at the right time so that you can

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make the somewhat painful changes required it's not like we don't know how to do it it's like it

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comes with trade-offs and we all have to agree that like quantum's a big enough deal now or it's

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going to be a big enough deal six months from now that we should start implementing and agreeing

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so summarize some of the decisions that need to be made which we just got we covered in the event

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but just for our audience.

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So one is simply moving to new cryptography.

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Post-quantum cryptography means,

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which means cryptography that can withstand

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a quantum computer in like Shor's algorithm

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and algorithms applied to a quantum computer.

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And to be specific on that for people listening,

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like when we're talking about actually signing a transaction,

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we're no longer going to be able to use

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the old form of cryptography.

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So it has to be post-quantum.

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Yeah.

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Yeah. And so there are a number of post-quantum cryptography solutions today. They all have major drawbacks compared to what we're used to in Bitcoin today, ranging from their signatures are much, much larger. The keys are much larger.

232
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:57,480
So that just means you can fit less transactions in a block. It slows down the velocity of being able to move money. It would increase the fees a single transaction would need to pay to get mined. So it hurts scaling.

233
00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,200
and then

234
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:00,760
or the

235
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,040
to generate a signature

236
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,000
requires

237
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:04,600
dramatically more

238
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,660
it's more computationally intensive

239
00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:07,520
so all of a sudden

240
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:08,160
everyone's like

241
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:09,020
Ledger and Trezor

242
00:14:09,020 --> 00:14:09,440
and Vicky

243
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:10,780
they couldn't even sign

244
00:14:10,780 --> 00:14:11,700
a transaction anymore

245
00:14:11,700 --> 00:14:12,300
they don't have enough

246
00:14:12,300 --> 00:14:13,080
it would take

247
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,120
you know like years

248
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:15,660
for them to sign a transaction

249
00:14:15,660 --> 00:14:16,000
maybe the compute

250
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:16,980
on like a hardware device

251
00:14:16,980 --> 00:14:17,160
yeah

252
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:18,580
so that's

253
00:14:18,580 --> 00:14:19,940
that's a trade off

254
00:14:19,940 --> 00:14:20,360
and then you know

255
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:21,300
you can pick different

256
00:14:21,300 --> 00:14:22,420
cryptography

257
00:14:22,420 --> 00:14:23,840
which gains

258
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:24,720
on one

259
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:25,960
and you lose

260
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:26,460
on the other

261
00:14:26,460 --> 00:14:27,420
there's trade offs there

262
00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:29,420
And then...

263
00:14:29,420 --> 00:14:32,100
It's also worth mentioning on those cryptography types.

264
00:14:32,220 --> 00:14:34,140
So I came away with kind of three big buckets

265
00:14:34,140 --> 00:14:35,880
of potential signatures we could move to.

266
00:14:36,700 --> 00:14:38,760
One, which I thought Lalo gave a great presentation,

267
00:14:38,900 --> 00:14:39,840
I think everyone should check out,

268
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:41,600
I think was called NIST, I forget that.

269
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:42,220
It was NIST?

270
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:42,760
Sphinx.

271
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:44,040
Sphinx, sorry, yeah.

272
00:14:44,380 --> 00:14:47,700
Not Sphinx chat, but S-P-H-I-N-C-S plus.

273
00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:49,300
And that was interesting to me

274
00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:50,440
because that seemed like the most established.

275
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:51,620
He claimed there was a light version

276
00:14:51,620 --> 00:14:53,040
that could get down to two kilobytes,

277
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:54,140
which that seems promising,

278
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:55,580
but obviously is not as secure.

279
00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:57,580
Then there was the lattice-based cryptography,

280
00:14:57,740 --> 00:14:58,780
which that's the one I understand

281
00:14:58,780 --> 00:15:00,760
that seems like a really, really fat signature.

282
00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:02,420
I forgot the exact number of kilobytes,

283
00:15:02,500 --> 00:15:03,560
but I think it was like around 100

284
00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,380
or something like that, like pretty fat.

285
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,520
And then there's like newer forms of cryptography,

286
00:15:08,780 --> 00:15:09,660
but I think it's worth mentioning

287
00:15:09,660 --> 00:15:10,780
that those newer ones,

288
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:12,620
like I don't think there's any chance

289
00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:13,440
we're going to use something newer.

290
00:15:13,580 --> 00:15:14,600
I don't think, I think it's basically

291
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,320
the Sphinx or the lattice

292
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:17,280
because all the other stuff,

293
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:18,680
it's not like battle-tested enough

294
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:19,960
to even think about using it, in my opinion.

295
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:20,780
To be clear, the signature,

296
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:22,940
much more than 100 bytes, thousands.

297
00:15:23,340 --> 00:15:23,700
Oh, okay.

298
00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:28,100
Because the current ECDSA is around 70 bytes.

299
00:15:28,380 --> 00:15:29,520
Schnorr is 64 bytes.

300
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,500
So 100 would be...

301
00:15:31,500 --> 00:15:32,300
100K, right?

302
00:15:32,940 --> 00:15:34,500
Yeah, 100 kilobytes.

303
00:15:34,620 --> 00:15:35,860
100 kilobytes is probably more.

304
00:15:36,180 --> 00:15:36,720
Yeah, I know.

305
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,820
Because he was saying two kilobytes for the...

306
00:15:40,820 --> 00:15:41,340
The abbreviated thing.

307
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,580
The abbreviated thing, which that sounds like, okay, it's more, but doable.

308
00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:45,740
100K, yeah.

309
00:15:45,740 --> 00:15:53,860
So one question is just like which technology to transition to or multiple.

310
00:15:54,180 --> 00:16:07,900
Because if you've got like one option that's really good for space efficiency, but bad computationally and another that's the opposite, maybe add both the Bitcoin and then different applications based on their needs will choose one or the other.

311
00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:09,560
So there's that decision.

312
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,000
And then there's like the timing.

313
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:15,700
Like, do we do it now to be safer against quantum computers?

314
00:16:15,740 --> 00:16:19,980
with relatively inferior cryptography

315
00:16:19,980 --> 00:16:23,420
or do we wait until it gets better?

316
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,420
So that's one bucket of questions.

317
00:16:28,180 --> 00:16:30,440
Then, and obviously that question gets,

318
00:16:31,540 --> 00:16:35,040
it's much easier to reach consensus on that over time

319
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:36,540
as the cryptography improves.

320
00:16:36,940 --> 00:16:38,360
I mean, we have a magic wand

321
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:42,440
and like in 15 years we have post-quantum cryptography,

322
00:16:42,700 --> 00:16:44,920
which is the same size, the same speed.

323
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:49,300
It supports hierarchical wallets.

324
00:16:49,420 --> 00:16:51,300
It supports multi-sig.

325
00:16:51,500 --> 00:16:52,700
There's like no drawbacks.

326
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:54,040
Well, it's easy to get.

327
00:16:54,180 --> 00:16:54,800
It's an embrace of that.

328
00:16:54,860 --> 00:16:55,360
Yeah, of course.

329
00:16:55,880 --> 00:17:02,000
Kind of like Schnorr signatures were easy to get consensus because there's basically no drawback and they had a bunch of benefits.

330
00:17:02,060 --> 00:17:02,420
Right, right.

331
00:17:03,780 --> 00:17:05,040
That's one bucket of questions.

332
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:10,800
Another is, I think, the thorniest question.

333
00:17:11,340 --> 00:17:13,140
And this is not really a technical one.

334
00:17:13,180 --> 00:17:13,860
It's more philosophical.

335
00:17:14,100 --> 00:17:23,200
But what to do with coins that don't transition to post-quantum cryptography, assuming we add that.

336
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,060
So assuming we add that, and it's possible.

337
00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:29,960
And then let's even assume we have a large window of time for people to become aware.

338
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:34,800
Whether intentionally or unintentionally, they move to new safe addresses.

339
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,360
there are undoubtedly

340
00:17:38,360 --> 00:17:40,500
many

341
00:17:40,500 --> 00:17:43,260
lost keys

342
00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:45,540
to coins that literally can never move

343
00:17:45,540 --> 00:17:47,460
due to lost keys. We don't know exactly

344
00:17:47,460 --> 00:17:49,340
how many, but it's

345
00:17:49,340 --> 00:17:51,260
clearly more than zero.

346
00:17:52,220 --> 00:17:53,160
So they'll never move.

347
00:17:53,220 --> 00:17:54,160
So what to do with those coins?

348
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,120
And right now there's

349
00:17:56,120 --> 00:17:57,900
an estimated

350
00:17:57,900 --> 00:17:59,600
6 million Bitcoin

351
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,100
that's exposed to

352
00:18:02,100 --> 00:18:04,360
quantum attacks.

353
00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:18,460
And I guess for our audience to make sure there's a couple, there's a long range attack and a short range attack. A long range attack is if coins have had their public key exposed in a variety of different mechanisms, then it's considered a long range attack.

354
00:18:18,460 --> 00:18:27,920
Because if I possess a quantum computer, I know that public key, I know how much money is behind it, I go to work on it, create the private key, I steal the money.

355
00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:36,860
Whereas, I guess, all but 6 million coins don't have their public key revealed.

356
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:42,680
So the only way a quantum computer could steal those coins would be as you go to spend those coins.

357
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,520
the legitimate owner goes to spend them,

358
00:18:44,940 --> 00:18:47,420
part of that process when you broadcast a transaction

359
00:18:47,420 --> 00:18:50,100
is to reveal the public key

360
00:18:50,100 --> 00:18:53,360
in which you need a much faster quantum computer.

361
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:54,320
That's a short range.

362
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,160
Because it would be like

363
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:56,800
while you're submitting it to the mempools,

364
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,000
you have like 10 minutes or so to crack it.

365
00:18:59,000 --> 00:18:59,320
Yeah, 10 minutes to an hour.

366
00:18:59,860 --> 00:19:01,620
Okay, I want to add two thoughts in there

367
00:19:01,620 --> 00:19:04,340
that I did come away with from the summit

368
00:19:04,340 --> 00:19:05,660
that I think are more of everyone understand.

369
00:19:05,780 --> 00:19:08,420
Number one, if you want the simplest TLDR

370
00:19:08,420 --> 00:19:10,700
on like how to be safe, don't reuse addresses.

371
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:12,540
Like one of the big things I walked away with

372
00:19:12,540 --> 00:19:17,040
is like really like we all know don't use reuse addresses but like really don't reuse addresses

373
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:21,680
and if you have old coins at addresses that have been reused probably good idea to move them

374
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:26,180
to an address you never use again so like that's like the tldr several million coins

375
00:19:26,180 --> 00:19:31,940
are from reuse addresses including so the two things that i came away actually slightly more

376
00:19:31,940 --> 00:19:35,180
concerned on because again i'm not all that concerned in general but i think it's fair to

377
00:19:35,180 --> 00:19:40,960
like show both sides honestly one all the freaking exchanges that are reusing so you're talking like

378
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,000
Binance and all these guys that are sitting there with a million,

379
00:19:43,180 --> 00:19:45,160
I mean, I guess that is most of the six million coins.

380
00:19:45,500 --> 00:19:47,120
That to me is just like insane.

381
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:48,480
Like, how is it, you know?

382
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,320
Couldn't they fix that in like one fell swoop by just moving it?

383
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:52,140
They could, and hopefully they will.

384
00:19:52,540 --> 00:19:53,540
But like that requires-

385
00:19:53,540 --> 00:19:54,580
Hopefully they're listening right now.

386
00:19:54,580 --> 00:19:54,800
Yeah.

387
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,220
They decide to prioritize it.

388
00:19:56,220 --> 00:19:58,260
And that's the other thing is like, yes, they could.

389
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,600
But then, you know, in general, I'm assuming it's not just simple.

390
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:01,840
It's like, hey, man, can you move those coins?

391
00:20:01,900 --> 00:20:04,180
Like when you're talking about that, that quantity of coins,

392
00:20:04,260 --> 00:20:06,440
there's probably like 10 people that need to sign off and like

393
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,920
stakeholders and all this crap.

394
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,840
And so that to me was like, whoa, like I can't believe Binance

395
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,080
is just kind of like raw dogging their keys out there.

396
00:20:13,500 --> 00:20:15,080
The second thing is,

397
00:20:15,420 --> 00:20:18,120
there's something else.

398
00:20:18,180 --> 00:20:20,140
Oh, Peter Rulli made a really interesting point.

399
00:20:20,220 --> 00:20:21,300
And his point was,

400
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,680
yes, there's only the 6 million coins

401
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,940
that we know of that have publicly exposed pub keys.

402
00:20:27,340 --> 00:20:30,660
But like how many more are you exposed to someone?

403
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,180
And so he made that in the case

404
00:20:32,180 --> 00:20:33,680
of if you're opening lightning channels

405
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,800
or potentially if you're sharing your XPUB

406
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:36,900
with someone, you know,

407
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:37,760
someone that's helping you do multisigames.

408
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,660
If you're like a BDT Bay merchant,

409
00:20:39,660 --> 00:20:45,980
you share your xpub you i mean unless you you run a bt space server yourself you would share your

410
00:20:45,980 --> 00:20:50,080
xpub with someone else running a bt space server and so in all of those cases i mean like most of

411
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,420
these companies are probably great actors whatever but like i think you know in adversarial thinking

412
00:20:54,420 --> 00:20:59,340
and you're thinking about incentives it's like you know as the price gets higher and higher who's

413
00:20:59,340 --> 00:21:04,120
within those organizations who has access to the data at what point does it become like you know

414
00:21:04,120 --> 00:21:07,900
like we've talked about with like the the potential for some crazy big hacks it's like you know okay

415
00:21:07,900 --> 00:21:12,380
maybe certain companies have great security practices, but as a billion becomes 10 billion,

416
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,020
becomes a hundred billion, becomes a trillion. At some point you're going to start having

417
00:21:15,020 --> 00:21:20,460
majors, even state actors coming in and getting people on the inside. And like, anyways, I did

418
00:21:20,460 --> 00:21:25,620
come away thinking there's probably a lot more than 6 million that have like real attack factors.

419
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:35,340
Yep. So I think, um, but with a sufficient window of time for people to become worried and move

420
00:21:35,340 --> 00:21:39,320
their coins, we can get it down to less than

421
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,380
2 million coins that would be exposed. There's something like 1.7

422
00:21:43,380 --> 00:21:46,620
million coins that are locked up with pay to pub key.

423
00:21:47,620 --> 00:21:51,080
In that particular script, the pub key is

424
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:55,480
exposed. Most of those are

425
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,540
very early Bitcoiners.

426
00:22:01,360 --> 00:22:03,100
There's analysis that suggests

427
00:22:03,100 --> 00:22:08,160
anywhere from 750,000 to a million of those are Satoshi's coins.

428
00:22:10,460 --> 00:22:15,480
Almost all of those addresses have exactly 50 Bitcoin in them

429
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,340
because that was the Bitcoin reward for mining a block back then.

430
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,980
So these are mostly early miners that have all these coins.

431
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:38,587
I believe someone who done analysis on the coins only like 10 addresses using PayDeBubKey have more than 50 Bitcoin And I think the most was like 3 Bitcoin Those are the ones that most likely

432
00:22:38,587 --> 00:22:43,307
a large percentage will never be moved.

433
00:22:43,587 --> 00:22:45,827
They have, people are dead or that's lost keys.

434
00:22:45,827 --> 00:22:46,187
Yeah.

435
00:22:47,087 --> 00:22:50,727
And so that's where the philosophical question lies.

436
00:22:50,907 --> 00:22:51,987
Even if we assume,

437
00:22:52,267 --> 00:22:54,207
we introduce post-quantum cryptography,

438
00:22:54,427 --> 00:22:56,287
even if it's perfect, it has no drawbacks,

439
00:22:56,347 --> 00:23:01,627
everyone's excited everyone who can move coins moves all the coins if we assume all that happens

440
00:23:01,627 --> 00:23:09,587
and it's officially a large enough window that can happen um what about these coins that literally

441
00:23:09,587 --> 00:23:16,587
can't move what do we do with them um so one camp is let the quantum computer steal it and you

442
00:23:16,587 --> 00:23:21,567
already said that that's like at least the camp you're in right now right um some people might

443
00:23:21,567 --> 00:23:29,167
find that to be a crazy camp, but it's definitely not a crazy, it's a completely rational view.

444
00:23:29,167 --> 00:23:42,307
There's substance behind that view, that position. But the, well, I'd state the reasons behind it

445
00:23:42,307 --> 00:23:47,267
are, one is that we're never going to reach consensus on burning people's coins. And we

446
00:23:47,267 --> 00:23:52,447
don't want to violate people's properties by changing the software. And we all agree, whoever's

447
00:23:52,447 --> 00:23:56,507
coins that are, we don't even know if they can or can't spend them, but we're going to make it

448
00:23:56,507 --> 00:24:03,447
sure that they can't spend them. And we'll never get consensus on that change.

449
00:24:03,447 --> 00:24:10,407
And I would say as a corollary to that, to me, the whole point of Bitcoin, the one sacred cow

450
00:24:10,407 --> 00:24:15,987
that cannot be slain is inviolable property rights. The whole system is inviolable property

451
00:24:15,987 --> 00:24:20,887
rights. And in my mind, you know, it's a very slippery slope. And like the discussion of,

452
00:24:21,007 --> 00:24:23,847
well, to your point, trying to reach consensus, well, which ones are dead, which ones are not,

453
00:24:24,067 --> 00:24:26,587
it just starts to get very Ethereum very quickly in my mind.

454
00:24:26,667 --> 00:24:30,647
But the reason why this is a very difficult problem is because no matter what choice is made,

455
00:24:31,187 --> 00:24:37,487
a right is being violated. Because if like, I signed up for Bitcoin because I have a private

456
00:24:37,487 --> 00:24:42,667
key and no one can take my money unless they get my private key. Well, now all of a sudden,

457
00:24:42,667 --> 00:24:44,067
And the quantum computer steals my money.

458
00:24:44,307 --> 00:24:46,607
So I violated my property rights of Bitcoin.

459
00:24:46,707 --> 00:24:47,347
I disagree with that.

460
00:24:47,647 --> 00:24:49,567
You said, unless it can get your private key.

461
00:24:49,627 --> 00:24:51,087
And in that case, got your private key.

462
00:24:51,227 --> 00:24:51,547
Correct.

463
00:24:51,807 --> 00:24:57,427
To me, I want to be very sort of explicit when I think that, and I'm not saying it's not nice.

464
00:24:57,467 --> 00:24:58,127
It would be unfortunate.

465
00:24:58,127 --> 00:25:01,007
I'm not saying I don't feel bad for people to get caught up in that.

466
00:25:01,307 --> 00:25:07,247
But to be very clear, the whole point of Bitcoin at that base layer in my mind is code is law at that level.

467
00:25:07,667 --> 00:25:11,387
There are plenty of other things where code is law is insane, which again, the whole Ethereum project.

468
00:25:11,387 --> 00:25:17,407
but like at the level where a bare asset like ownership of the bare asset to me is private key

469
00:25:17,407 --> 00:25:22,127
now the sort of inviolable right you're given with that private key in my mind is the right

470
00:25:22,127 --> 00:25:26,587
to hold that private key in the state that you received it and so if the state that you received

471
00:25:26,587 --> 00:25:32,727
it gets hacked by a new technology i mean that was not that was not the agreed upon state yep

472
00:25:32,727 --> 00:25:40,227
so that's that's one position um as i said it's like valid position um now another position is

473
00:25:40,227 --> 00:25:43,067
freeze or burn the coins.

474
00:25:44,367 --> 00:25:45,987
And I say,

475
00:25:48,107 --> 00:25:50,787
to me, the difference between freezing and burning,

476
00:25:51,167 --> 00:25:54,267
to me, implies permanent loss.

477
00:25:55,547 --> 00:25:59,967
Freezing, there's like an option to unfreeze in the future.

478
00:26:00,147 --> 00:26:02,547
So what would that option to unfreeze look like?

479
00:26:03,247 --> 00:26:09,107
It would be the rightful owner can prove later on to the world

480
00:26:09,107 --> 00:26:11,807
in a public fashion, these were my coins,

481
00:26:12,147 --> 00:26:14,967
and do so in a way that a quantum computer cannot prove

482
00:26:14,967 --> 00:26:16,087
and no one else can either.

483
00:26:16,727 --> 00:26:18,367
And it's already been demonstrated,

484
00:26:18,547 --> 00:26:21,507
like if you have the seed phrase for your coins,

485
00:26:21,547 --> 00:26:22,687
that is one way to do it

486
00:26:22,687 --> 00:26:27,047
because the quantum computer cannot take a public or private key.

487
00:26:27,367 --> 00:26:31,087
It can't take the private key and reverse engineer the seed phrase

488
00:26:31,087 --> 00:26:33,807
because the hashing mechanism is between them.

489
00:26:33,807 --> 00:26:37,267
Right, so the quantum computer can go from a public key to a private key,

490
00:26:37,267 --> 00:26:38,747
but can't go from a private key

491
00:26:38,747 --> 00:26:39,827
to the seed phrase

492
00:26:39,827 --> 00:26:43,107
that is fascinating to me

493
00:26:43,107 --> 00:26:44,467
and that's a very interesting nuance

494
00:26:44,467 --> 00:26:46,567
who would be the arbiter

495
00:26:46,567 --> 00:26:48,447
like how would that work

496
00:26:48,447 --> 00:26:49,187
you'd take it off

497
00:26:49,187 --> 00:26:52,047
I think that's what the ZK stuff is

498
00:26:52,047 --> 00:26:53,727
you need a zero knowledge proof

499
00:26:53,727 --> 00:26:56,387
but again who's like saying

500
00:26:56,387 --> 00:26:58,207
because it could be added

501
00:26:58,207 --> 00:26:59,287
you do a calculation

502
00:26:59,287 --> 00:27:01,387
so here's how it would

503
00:27:01,387 --> 00:27:04,167
like let's say we had to make an imminent decision

504
00:27:04,167 --> 00:27:06,287
like okay quantum computer's here

505
00:27:06,287 --> 00:27:07,047
it's going to steal.

506
00:27:07,167 --> 00:27:07,887
We have to make it.

507
00:27:07,987 --> 00:27:09,727
And let's say we get consensus

508
00:27:09,727 --> 00:27:11,567
to freeze.

509
00:27:12,007 --> 00:27:13,367
And we do that.

510
00:27:13,507 --> 00:27:14,427
We don't have to have

511
00:27:14,427 --> 00:27:15,427
a solution yet

512
00:27:15,427 --> 00:27:18,367
to do this social proof

513
00:27:18,367 --> 00:27:19,727
that, oh, these were my coins.

514
00:27:19,827 --> 00:27:20,427
We don't need that.

515
00:27:20,507 --> 00:27:22,667
We just need the optionality of it.

516
00:27:22,747 --> 00:27:23,547
So we freeze.

517
00:27:24,047 --> 00:27:25,407
So we change the code

518
00:27:25,407 --> 00:27:26,687
so that no one can spend

519
00:27:26,687 --> 00:27:27,367
those coins,

520
00:27:27,467 --> 00:27:28,567
even the rightful owner.

521
00:27:28,727 --> 00:27:29,907
And then in the future,

522
00:27:30,167 --> 00:27:31,227
whether it's six months later,

523
00:27:31,387 --> 00:27:32,107
six years later,

524
00:27:32,367 --> 00:27:33,487
or 60 years later,

525
00:27:34,187 --> 00:27:35,547
we develop a system

526
00:27:35,547 --> 00:27:38,187
which is fair, which is

527
00:27:38,187 --> 00:27:40,107
cryptographically

528
00:27:40,107 --> 00:27:42,107
sound, which is part of the protocol

529
00:27:42,107 --> 00:27:44,327
and upgrade the system again, the software again

530
00:27:44,327 --> 00:27:46,187
and then now I can take my

531
00:27:46,187 --> 00:27:46,907
seed phrase,

532
00:27:48,267 --> 00:27:50,087
zero knowledge, prove it,

533
00:27:50,587 --> 00:27:52,247
prove to the network, these were my

534
00:27:52,247 --> 00:27:54,207
coins and I get them back. So the assumption

535
00:27:54,207 --> 00:27:56,167
there is there can only be

536
00:27:56,167 --> 00:27:58,427
one set of seed words that led to that

537
00:27:58,427 --> 00:28:00,187
private key, is that right? But that's

538
00:28:00,187 --> 00:28:01,507
not true either, right? Because couldn't you have

539
00:28:01,507 --> 00:28:04,187
when you're generating a seed it could be

540
00:28:04,187 --> 00:28:05,827
12 words or 24 words.

541
00:28:08,487 --> 00:28:10,387
Is it the case

542
00:28:10,387 --> 00:28:12,347
with this? I guess with the hash function, there's only

543
00:28:12,347 --> 00:28:14,427
one thing that leads

544
00:28:14,427 --> 00:28:15,427
to the private key.

545
00:28:15,827 --> 00:28:18,047
Whether I have 12 or 24 words,

546
00:28:19,067 --> 00:28:20,607
I can prove that they

547
00:28:20,607 --> 00:28:22,707
lead to that private key.

548
00:28:22,887 --> 00:28:24,367
I guess what I'm saying, just to clarify, is

549
00:28:24,367 --> 00:28:26,447
if I have 24 words that lead to that key, there's not another

550
00:28:26,447 --> 00:28:27,967
cell of 12 words that lead to that key.

551
00:28:28,347 --> 00:28:30,307
In cryptography like this, it's only one

552
00:28:30,307 --> 00:28:31,387
to one mapping.

553
00:28:31,387 --> 00:28:38,447
uh i mean i need to go study it either way like so what i mean it's just like can't get either

554
00:28:38,447 --> 00:28:43,607
yeah okay even even if there's a collision there like no one's going to guess the other

555
00:28:43,607 --> 00:28:49,087
option because it's like a huge number yeah there was also this discussion of the hourglass

556
00:28:49,087 --> 00:28:54,527
have you that was interesting yeah right i thought that was yeah so there's and there's like a couple

557
00:28:54,527 --> 00:29:01,127
variations of the hourglass proposal but the with the hourglass um concept you allow

558
00:29:01,127 --> 00:29:04,907
the quantum computer to steal the coins, but you apply a throttle.

559
00:29:05,747 --> 00:29:09,367
And the first proposal for Hourglass

560
00:29:09,367 --> 00:29:12,367
would be each Bitcoin block

561
00:29:12,367 --> 00:29:16,167
would allow for one paid above the key

562
00:29:16,167 --> 00:29:19,667
transaction spend. One per block.

563
00:29:20,727 --> 00:29:23,407
And with that kind of throttle, it would take

564
00:29:23,407 --> 00:29:27,367
eight months to spend all of them. So if someone

565
00:29:27,367 --> 00:29:31,047
possessed a quantum computer, instead of taking three hours, if you

566
00:29:31,047 --> 00:29:33,087
allowed full blocks to be mined

567
00:29:33,087 --> 00:29:35,027
this way, they'd all be spent and

568
00:29:35,027 --> 00:29:37,227
stolen in three hours.

569
00:29:37,527 --> 00:29:39,087
You apply this throttle and then

570
00:29:39,087 --> 00:29:41,047
it's eight months. So it gives the whole

571
00:29:41,047 --> 00:29:42,947
space

572
00:29:42,947 --> 00:29:44,607
time to

573
00:29:44,607 --> 00:29:46,667
react and come up with a plan

574
00:29:46,667 --> 00:29:48,907
while limiting

575
00:29:48,907 --> 00:29:50,667
the damage of the theft.

576
00:29:52,547 --> 00:29:52,767
And like

577
00:29:52,767 --> 00:29:54,267
one theory behind that is like

578
00:29:54,267 --> 00:29:57,047
I'd say one benefit to this approach

579
00:29:57,047 --> 00:29:58,887
is like by giving us more

580
00:29:58,887 --> 00:30:00,747
time, that would

581
00:30:00,747 --> 00:30:06,767
it would be easier to get consensus like oh shit this it's real now it's a real problem

582
00:30:06,767 --> 00:30:15,007
so it's just easier to get consensus on do we freeze or do we introduce post-quantum

583
00:30:15,007 --> 00:30:23,367
cryptography etc um and then but you know it still gets it's still tricky like how do you

584
00:30:23,367 --> 00:30:29,407
at what point do you believe a quantum computer is stealing the coins like we just we just saw

585
00:30:29,407 --> 00:30:31,127
thousands of Bitcoin

586
00:30:31,127 --> 00:30:33,527
what was it?

587
00:30:33,907 --> 00:30:35,447
80,000? 80,000

588
00:30:35,447 --> 00:30:37,047
Bitcoin just moved from

589
00:30:37,047 --> 00:30:39,567
an era that

590
00:30:39,567 --> 00:30:41,527
would, in fact, I

591
00:30:41,527 --> 00:30:43,427
think they were paid a pub key coin.

592
00:30:43,547 --> 00:30:45,527
And I think they were assumed loss. I think there was

593
00:30:45,527 --> 00:30:46,967
one of those organizations.

594
00:30:47,707 --> 00:30:49,427
And no one's,

595
00:30:49,507 --> 00:30:51,367
I mean, I saw someone claiming maybe it's

596
00:30:51,367 --> 00:30:52,567
quantum, but no one's

597
00:30:52,567 --> 00:30:55,207
taking it seriously that a quantum computer

598
00:30:55,207 --> 00:30:57,207
did that. But it's certainly possible.

599
00:30:57,207 --> 00:30:58,267
And now it's 80,000.

600
00:30:58,427 --> 00:31:00,847
So how many have to move before we start believing it?

601
00:31:00,907 --> 00:31:02,027
And then more people believe it.

602
00:31:02,087 --> 00:31:06,187
And it becomes, you know, so it's still unclear.

603
00:31:06,347 --> 00:31:07,607
But that's the hourglass idea.

604
00:31:07,767 --> 00:31:15,527
There's an hourglass V2 proposal, which is way more, I don't know if I'd say more aggressive, but had very different parameters.

605
00:31:15,827 --> 00:31:22,427
Instead of just paid a pub key, it would throttle all 6 million.

606
00:31:22,427 --> 00:31:24,967
like if it's a coin that's

607
00:31:24,967 --> 00:31:26,567
exposed to a long range attack

608
00:31:26,567 --> 00:31:28,067
it gets throttled

609
00:31:28,067 --> 00:31:30,627
and it takes like

610
00:31:30,627 --> 00:31:32,887
120 years to spend all of them

611
00:31:32,887 --> 00:31:35,047
I mean like instead of 8 months it's 120 years

612
00:31:35,047 --> 00:31:36,827
it makes this a huge window

613
00:31:36,827 --> 00:31:37,987
um

614
00:31:37,987 --> 00:31:40,467
that starts to mess with property rights though

615
00:31:40,467 --> 00:31:42,907
that starts to mess with property rights right

616
00:31:42,907 --> 00:31:43,627
it doesn't start

617
00:31:43,627 --> 00:31:45,987
like if I can't even like

618
00:31:45,987 --> 00:31:49,167
if I'll be dead by the time I can spend my coins

619
00:31:49,167 --> 00:31:49,547
like

620
00:31:49,547 --> 00:31:50,827
um

621
00:31:50,827 --> 00:31:52,847
because

622
00:31:52,847 --> 00:31:55,927
the reason why the window of time

623
00:31:55,927 --> 00:31:57,307
was increased so much is that

624
00:31:57,307 --> 00:31:59,467
it was limited to

625
00:31:59,467 --> 00:32:01,587
an amount of

626
00:32:01,587 --> 00:32:03,307
one Bitcoin per

627
00:32:03,307 --> 00:32:05,507
one BTC per block.

628
00:32:06,567 --> 00:32:07,727
So much

629
00:32:07,727 --> 00:32:09,467
more limiting. And then

630
00:32:09,467 --> 00:32:11,487
you have to start considering fees.

631
00:32:12,647 --> 00:32:13,447
So whether

632
00:32:13,447 --> 00:32:15,467
it's one

633
00:32:15,467 --> 00:32:17,607
address or one

634
00:32:17,607 --> 00:32:19,687
UTXO per block or one Bitcoin

635
00:32:19,687 --> 00:32:20,667
per block, either way,

636
00:32:20,827 --> 00:32:22,327
there's going to be competition for that.

637
00:32:22,387 --> 00:32:23,347
There's only one per block.

638
00:32:23,487 --> 00:32:23,707
Right.

639
00:32:23,807 --> 00:32:24,827
If you have one of those,

640
00:32:24,887 --> 00:32:25,447
you have one of those,

641
00:32:25,467 --> 00:32:26,067
and I have one of those,

642
00:32:26,067 --> 00:32:27,707
I want to be in the next block.

643
00:32:27,787 --> 00:32:28,767
You want to be in the next block.

644
00:32:29,147 --> 00:32:31,687
How do we decide if there's contention?

645
00:32:32,327 --> 00:32:33,987
I believe markets might help with that.

646
00:32:34,467 --> 00:32:34,827
Markets.

647
00:32:35,187 --> 00:32:35,547
Fees.

648
00:32:35,847 --> 00:32:36,627
We already have that built-in.

649
00:32:36,627 --> 00:32:37,827
Are we going to have another block war?

650
00:32:38,147 --> 00:32:38,787
Block size war?

651
00:32:38,807 --> 00:32:38,987
But then,

652
00:32:40,207 --> 00:32:41,127
no, but I mean.

653
00:32:41,127 --> 00:32:42,147
What if we just created a DAO?

654
00:32:42,687 --> 00:32:43,407
No, but I mean,

655
00:32:43,507 --> 00:32:44,267
the fee market.

656
00:32:44,507 --> 00:32:44,947
So then, okay.

657
00:32:47,647 --> 00:32:50,147
How much are you willing to spend

658
00:32:50,147 --> 00:32:51,807
to be in the next block.

659
00:32:52,607 --> 00:32:56,907
And the proposal is that it limits the fee

660
00:32:56,907 --> 00:33:01,087
to match the amount you're trying to move.

661
00:33:01,527 --> 00:33:04,027
So in Hourglass v2 proposal,

662
00:33:04,207 --> 00:33:06,147
you can move a maximum of one Bitcoin

663
00:33:06,147 --> 00:33:09,847
and you can pay the miner a maximum fee of one Bitcoin.

664
00:33:11,307 --> 00:33:13,627
But one thing that was great about this event

665
00:33:13,627 --> 00:33:15,487
is that after hearing this proposal,

666
00:33:15,487 --> 00:33:17,967
then we broke out into breakout groups

667
00:33:17,967 --> 00:33:21,007
of around six or seven people per group.

668
00:33:21,087 --> 00:33:23,267
And there are like eight different breakout groups.

669
00:33:23,387 --> 00:33:24,307
And in my breakout group,

670
00:33:24,307 --> 00:33:27,547
we talked about what prevents out-of-band fees.

671
00:33:28,307 --> 00:33:30,167
So like the protocol in this,

672
00:33:30,267 --> 00:33:31,847
if we move forward to this proposal,

673
00:33:32,247 --> 00:33:33,487
I can only move one Bitcoin.

674
00:33:33,947 --> 00:33:36,067
I can pay the miner a maximum of one Bitcoin.

675
00:33:36,707 --> 00:33:38,327
But one question that gets raised is like,

676
00:33:38,387 --> 00:33:39,647
all three of us want to do this, right?

677
00:33:39,947 --> 00:33:42,587
We all three max bid one Bitcoin.

678
00:33:42,827 --> 00:33:43,627
Who gets chosen?

679
00:33:43,867 --> 00:33:45,587
Well, so the protocol could be random.

680
00:33:45,767 --> 00:33:47,227
It randomly selects one of us.

681
00:33:47,227 --> 00:33:52,907
but what prevents me from going to the miner and be like i'll pay you even more money and that

682
00:33:52,907 --> 00:33:58,367
already happens today to select me and not don't don't follow the protocol because the miner gets

683
00:33:58,367 --> 00:34:02,287
to choose what goes in the block so the protocol might say it's randomly chosen between the three

684
00:34:02,287 --> 00:34:08,087
of us but i ensure that i'm the one chosen because i pay even more fees to the miner and then it's

685
00:34:08,087 --> 00:34:14,247
kind of a race to the bottom because like if i have if i have one of these um blocks that i mined

686
00:34:14,247 --> 00:34:23,227
back in 2010 or whatever, and I have 50 Bitcoin in it, I'll end up just spending 49.

687
00:34:23,527 --> 00:34:27,827
I'll be like, here, Mr. Miner, here's 49 Bitcoin to move on Bitcoin.

688
00:34:28,027 --> 00:34:28,987
And it just-

689
00:34:28,987 --> 00:34:29,407
You got a deal.

690
00:34:29,587 --> 00:34:29,787
Right.

691
00:34:31,127 --> 00:34:32,847
Anyhow, that's the hourglass idea.

692
00:34:34,207 --> 00:34:34,607
Yeah.

693
00:34:34,827 --> 00:34:36,507
There are a lot of different parameters that have to be-

694
00:34:36,507 --> 00:34:42,227
I mean, that alone needs to be studied a lot to think of all the adversarial impact.

695
00:34:42,227 --> 00:34:50,567
And because it's all, it basically, it might simply just be in the end a tail emission.

696
00:34:51,927 --> 00:35:01,807
And like, if that's really, if it is the case that everyone just ends up paying 99% fees to get a little bit out, then that's basically a tail emission.

697
00:35:01,987 --> 00:35:05,267
So let's just be honest and call it a tail emission.

698
00:35:05,287 --> 00:35:07,067
Can you just define tail emission?

699
00:35:07,067 --> 00:35:13,447
um well tail mission in general is like right now the way the bitcoin network works is that the

700
00:35:13,447 --> 00:35:19,907
the subsidy goes to zero the only way miners get an economic incentive will be transaction fees

701
00:35:19,907 --> 00:35:25,507
but if you add a tail emission some people propose we add a tail emission like which is like rewards

702
00:35:25,507 --> 00:35:29,527
that continue beyond forever and it could be something like in monero it's always like

703
00:35:29,527 --> 00:35:33,947
a fixed amount so it's like one percent then it gets less so it's asymptotic with zero but never

704
00:35:33,947 --> 00:35:42,187
zero so so what like one idea is take all these coins that are either thought to be lost or didn't

705
00:35:42,187 --> 00:35:49,067
move to post-quantum and we don't want it's better to give it to miners than to a quantum computer

706
00:35:49,067 --> 00:35:58,107
thief then um come up with a formula for how to give them to miners over what time period

707
00:35:58,107 --> 00:36:01,107
how to make that fair with the miners.

708
00:36:01,547 --> 00:36:02,727
That's a whole nother question.

709
00:36:03,647 --> 00:36:05,047
I mean, so a couple of things come out.

710
00:36:05,127 --> 00:36:06,907
I mean, for me, the thing that I keep coming back to

711
00:36:06,907 --> 00:36:09,127
is I think any changes ever made with Bitcoin

712
00:36:09,127 --> 00:36:10,147
should be the kind of changes

713
00:36:10,147 --> 00:36:12,147
that you as a user can opt into full stop.

714
00:36:12,507 --> 00:36:14,847
Like I love the idea of creating new post-quantum,

715
00:36:14,947 --> 00:36:16,387
you know, signature schemes, amazing.

716
00:36:16,787 --> 00:36:18,467
But I should still have the right to choose,

717
00:36:18,567 --> 00:36:19,847
like in the future, do I want to use that or not?

718
00:36:20,147 --> 00:36:22,787
Anything in my mind that goes back and touches old coins

719
00:36:22,787 --> 00:36:24,607
and tries to like have any kind of paternalism

720
00:36:24,607 --> 00:36:26,587
about who may or may not be using them

721
00:36:26,587 --> 00:36:27,467
that we just don't know,

722
00:36:27,867 --> 00:36:29,407
It's a slippery slope to Ethereum.

723
00:36:29,627 --> 00:36:31,927
This is like what went wrong with Vitalik and all these guys,

724
00:36:32,247 --> 00:36:33,507
thinking they understood complexity,

725
00:36:34,047 --> 00:36:35,367
thinking they could outsmart the system.

726
00:36:35,627 --> 00:36:37,567
And then of course, it blows, it breaks,

727
00:36:37,707 --> 00:36:38,347
and it's a slippery slope.

728
00:36:38,467 --> 00:36:40,487
So that's my kind of high level view on this.

729
00:36:40,627 --> 00:36:41,867
I'm not saying it's bad or good.

730
00:36:42,207 --> 00:36:43,207
I just, I think that like,

731
00:36:43,427 --> 00:36:44,727
you could do all these crazy things

732
00:36:44,727 --> 00:36:45,967
and like maybe it works, maybe it doesn't,

733
00:36:46,007 --> 00:36:46,867
or you could just do nothing.

734
00:36:47,327 --> 00:36:48,307
And like often the like,

735
00:36:48,627 --> 00:36:51,087
kind of like Taoist approach isn't the right approach.

736
00:36:51,167 --> 00:36:52,387
In fact, I think that's what Bitcoin is.

737
00:36:52,387 --> 00:36:54,427
So that's my high level of thought on that.

738
00:36:54,767 --> 00:36:56,887
I thought something that was very interesting to me though,

739
00:36:56,887 --> 00:36:58,967
that I think is worth discussing is in one of my,

740
00:36:59,027 --> 00:37:00,927
actually not my breakout group, my lunch group,

741
00:37:01,307 --> 00:37:04,367
two very interesting things were mentioned

742
00:37:04,367 --> 00:37:06,227
that I actually thought was very important.

743
00:37:06,627 --> 00:37:09,087
So the first was someone mentioned at the table,

744
00:37:09,207 --> 00:37:12,387
they're not worried, that worried about quantum itself,

745
00:37:12,507 --> 00:37:14,627
the threat, they're extremely worried

746
00:37:14,627 --> 00:37:15,847
about the recursive fear.

747
00:37:16,267 --> 00:37:18,267
So they're worried about the worry about quantum.

748
00:37:18,407 --> 00:37:20,607
And I was like, yes, and that makes total sense to me.

749
00:37:21,047 --> 00:37:22,707
Someone else at the table is our mutual friend

750
00:37:22,707 --> 00:37:25,247
who's a major public investor.

751
00:37:25,247 --> 00:37:27,627
and it seemed he kind of validated

752
00:37:27,627 --> 00:37:30,947
that the biggest thing holding a lot of just huge pools of capital back

753
00:37:30,947 --> 00:37:32,107
is that there isn't an answer.

754
00:37:32,207 --> 00:37:34,127
So I do think it's extremely important.

755
00:37:34,187 --> 00:37:35,607
To me, the most important thing is less like,

756
00:37:36,027 --> 00:37:37,307
okay, what do we do with the old coins?

757
00:37:37,407 --> 00:37:39,107
And like, yes, the post-quantum cryptography matters,

758
00:37:39,167 --> 00:37:42,107
but like, what is the education and the talking points?

759
00:37:42,187 --> 00:37:44,767
Like, how do we educate the big public guys?

760
00:37:45,227 --> 00:37:48,847
Because even if there's like very little like risk

761
00:37:48,847 --> 00:37:50,907
and like, yeah, maybe a couple million coins get lost forever,

762
00:37:51,207 --> 00:37:52,027
if they start thinking,

763
00:37:52,027 --> 00:37:54,327
well, what if everyone else is about to get out quickly?

764
00:37:54,327 --> 00:37:55,247
And then, oh shit.

765
00:37:55,347 --> 00:37:56,787
And then it keeps going back on itself.

766
00:37:56,887 --> 00:37:58,887
Well, then I should get out before they get out, before they get out.

767
00:37:59,367 --> 00:38:00,927
I think that is a much bigger concern.

768
00:38:01,087 --> 00:38:05,487
And I guess one question I'll pose to you guys is, if you were presenting some of these

769
00:38:05,487 --> 00:38:10,547
giant pools of capital, how would you tell them to like either assuage their fears or

770
00:38:10,547 --> 00:38:12,147
like not worry, or maybe they should worry?

771
00:38:12,267 --> 00:38:12,967
What would you tell them?

772
00:38:13,487 --> 00:38:17,007
Well, one, I mean, you mentioned earlier, David, like how did this event come to be?

773
00:38:17,007 --> 00:38:24,827
the unnamed investor you just mentioned kept nudging me over the past two years and i kept

774
00:38:24,827 --> 00:38:32,227
blowing him off and finally i'm like i got sold on the point that even if i am not worried too

775
00:38:32,227 --> 00:38:37,867
worried about this right that others are and we need it we the bitcoin community need a better

776
00:38:37,867 --> 00:38:45,187
answer than like it's not a problem right so i'm totally sold on that and so well one thing led to

777
00:38:45,187 --> 00:38:51,747
the next and we have this event. So I think the event itself is one answer for investors. We've

778
00:38:51,747 --> 00:38:56,287
recorded all the content, it's all available. We also had people attending who are going to write

779
00:38:56,287 --> 00:39:02,587
summaries. That's awesome. But you know, people from Bitcoin Magazine, but also research analysts

780
00:39:02,587 --> 00:39:08,967
at major firms. Yeah, that's great. So we'll see. And you know, these are high quality people. I

781
00:39:08,967 --> 00:39:15,167
expect really good summaries and analysis from them. So looking forward to that. I think

782
00:39:15,167 --> 00:39:16,707
that'll come out the next month or two.

783
00:39:17,507 --> 00:39:17,907
Um,

784
00:39:18,247 --> 00:39:24,107
and one thing I suggested when we wrapped up the event is that maybe that comes

785
00:39:24,107 --> 00:39:26,927
from the people I'm that I just mentioned,

786
00:39:27,007 --> 00:39:27,907
but if not,

787
00:39:28,027 --> 00:39:29,207
I think there.

788
00:39:30,967 --> 00:39:32,047
So again,

789
00:39:32,187 --> 00:39:33,167
even though we don't,

790
00:39:33,267 --> 00:39:34,507
there's a lot of open questions,

791
00:39:34,587 --> 00:39:35,547
still a lot of big problems.

792
00:39:35,547 --> 00:39:36,987
We have a better answer than like,

793
00:39:37,187 --> 00:39:38,107
it's not a problem.

794
00:39:38,267 --> 00:39:38,387
Right.

795
00:39:38,467 --> 00:39:39,027
And so like,

796
00:39:39,067 --> 00:39:40,907
let's at least write down like,

797
00:39:40,967 --> 00:39:41,267
okay,

798
00:39:41,807 --> 00:39:43,547
here are the five big questions.

799
00:39:43,547 --> 00:39:46,327
and we just reviewed some of you, most of them.

800
00:39:46,487 --> 00:39:52,547
And then like, you know, if something happened in five years,

801
00:39:53,227 --> 00:39:55,427
literally what would happen?

802
00:39:55,587 --> 00:39:55,727
Yeah.

803
00:39:55,847 --> 00:39:56,967
What, what would happen?

804
00:39:57,087 --> 00:39:58,267
What could, what would happen?

805
00:39:58,327 --> 00:39:59,047
What could happen?

806
00:39:59,127 --> 00:40:01,267
What's the best, what's the best case outcome?

807
00:40:01,447 --> 00:40:01,647
Right.

808
00:40:01,787 --> 00:40:05,867
If it, if it happens in five years, write that out and say like,

809
00:40:05,907 --> 00:40:07,887
here's the best thing we can think of that would happen here.

810
00:40:07,967 --> 00:40:08,727
It'd be the plan.

811
00:40:08,887 --> 00:40:09,987
Here's the ramifications.

812
00:40:10,327 --> 00:40:12,067
We wouldn't have multisig, like the wallets.

813
00:40:12,067 --> 00:40:19,687
we'd have like had to restart reset the software development but um you know there there would be

814
00:40:19,687 --> 00:40:24,287
and then but we could we could freeze coins whatever and basically like there there'd be like

815
00:40:24,287 --> 00:40:31,927
very limited collateral damage in terms of theft from a quantum computer um or option b is we we

816
00:40:31,927 --> 00:40:37,747
can't get consensus on that change and then it's like they they are available for theft and you

817
00:40:37,747 --> 00:40:43,827
have to be prepared as an investor that there's, you know, two million coins that were just stolen

818
00:40:43,827 --> 00:40:51,467
and that adversary can dump them on the market or play other shenanigans and games. I think

819
00:40:51,467 --> 00:40:58,087
writing down that in accessible language to investors would be a very valuable exercise.

820
00:40:58,467 --> 00:41:02,767
And this continually unnamed investor, one thing he mentioned he was going to do,

821
00:41:02,767 --> 00:41:06,527
which I'm actually very excited to see, is compare. And these are different things,

822
00:41:06,527 --> 00:41:11,667
but at least take some of the danger out of that is compare what's happened with like every major

823
00:41:11,667 --> 00:41:16,107
public tech company, you know, was like by definition, a hundred percent insider owned

824
00:41:16,107 --> 00:41:21,427
from employees, founders, and investors. Then they went public and over 10, 20 year period,

825
00:41:21,427 --> 00:41:26,687
it goes from like all insider owned to the vast majority public owned. And so IE insiders have

826
00:41:26,687 --> 00:41:30,987
dumped, which I actually don't think they've dumped. They've just sold shares over time,

827
00:41:31,047 --> 00:41:34,167
just like Bitcoiners have. And so I think that was very interesting to see, like,

828
00:41:34,167 --> 00:41:40,047
and I'm going to be very interested to read when he puts this out, to see how quickly some of those

829
00:41:40,047 --> 00:41:45,587
shares were sold to the public and how that impacted price. And the TLDR was, except in

830
00:41:45,587 --> 00:41:51,447
very brief windows of time where maybe you got a couple percentage point downtick, it didn't really

831
00:41:51,447 --> 00:41:55,787
impact price. There was always demand to keep taking that new supply. So I'm not that worried

832
00:41:55,787 --> 00:41:59,987
if two million coins get quote unquote dumped. I also think that an attacker is sophisticated

833
00:41:59,987 --> 00:42:03,727
enough, motivated by economics. They're not just going to dump all at once. They're going to figure

834
00:42:03,727 --> 00:42:09,687
out how to try and time that and maximize their own return over time. I do think the one thing

835
00:42:09,687 --> 00:42:14,067
that's a little different with this though is, one, if it's Satoshi coins, does that somehow

836
00:42:14,067 --> 00:42:18,247
just spook the market in a way that insider selling of Facebook or Amazon didn't? Maybe.

837
00:42:19,327 --> 00:42:25,527
And the other thing is, well, I forgot the other thing, but yeah.

838
00:42:26,187 --> 00:42:28,287
Anything else to wrap up on the event?

839
00:42:28,687 --> 00:42:33,547
I think we're pretty wrapped on the quantum. Yeah, we're almost an hour in.

840
00:42:33,727 --> 00:42:35,327
no maybe not that

841
00:42:35,327 --> 00:42:36,027
how long are we

842
00:42:36,027 --> 00:42:37,007
42 minutes

843
00:42:37,007 --> 00:42:37,287
okay

844
00:42:37,287 --> 00:42:37,727
oh wow

845
00:42:37,727 --> 00:42:38,847
okay okay

846
00:42:38,847 --> 00:42:40,167
a little timer

847
00:42:40,167 --> 00:42:40,807
in the bottom right

848
00:42:40,807 --> 00:42:41,307
oh there you go

849
00:42:41,307 --> 00:42:41,707
oh hey

850
00:42:41,707 --> 00:42:42,307
beautiful

851
00:42:42,307 --> 00:42:42,947
nice

852
00:42:42,947 --> 00:42:43,727
42

853
00:42:43,727 --> 00:42:44,387
Steve dropping

854
00:42:44,387 --> 00:42:45,527
we've got a

855
00:42:45,527 --> 00:42:46,747
high tech setup here

856
00:42:46,747 --> 00:42:48,147
yeah we've got timers

857
00:42:48,147 --> 00:42:48,707
yeah

858
00:42:48,707 --> 00:42:49,707
well we have

859
00:42:49,707 --> 00:42:51,287
some other topics

860
00:42:51,287 --> 00:42:52,287
I don't know if we have

861
00:42:52,287 --> 00:42:52,947
the topics

862
00:42:52,947 --> 00:42:53,887
listed

863
00:42:53,887 --> 00:42:54,807
I know one of the ones

864
00:42:54,807 --> 00:42:55,527
that we want to talk about

865
00:42:55,527 --> 00:42:56,407
was the

866
00:42:56,407 --> 00:42:57,407
AI companions

867
00:42:57,407 --> 00:42:59,067
but I don't think

868
00:42:59,067 --> 00:42:59,387
we have that

869
00:42:59,387 --> 00:42:59,727
companions

870
00:42:59,727 --> 00:43:01,047
I don't really remember

871
00:43:01,047 --> 00:43:02,567
I haven't heard of companions

872
00:43:02,567 --> 00:43:03,247
is there another name

873
00:43:03,247 --> 00:43:08,467
I know it's a topic that we have maybe disagreements on,

874
00:43:08,647 --> 00:43:10,467
which I actually wanted to hash that out

875
00:43:10,467 --> 00:43:11,807
because in the group chat, we never quite-

876
00:43:11,807 --> 00:43:13,787
Hopefully we didn't get fired from this conversation.

877
00:43:14,207 --> 00:43:17,767
Alex, we got to stay HR appropriate with this conversation.

878
00:43:17,767 --> 00:43:18,887
We're definitely HR appropriate.

879
00:43:19,547 --> 00:43:20,027
Okay.

880
00:43:20,187 --> 00:43:20,607
Thank God.

881
00:43:20,787 --> 00:43:22,927
But David, you kick us off

882
00:43:22,927 --> 00:43:27,727
because you're saying that Elon and XAI's new companions

883
00:43:27,727 --> 00:43:32,927
could revolutionize the interface to AI.

884
00:43:32,927 --> 00:43:49,667
Well, yeah. So I want to be clear about what I said because you're misrepresenting it already. So I said that this is a disruptive interface that if it were to become popular, it would not be easy for existing providers to kind of to adopt.

885
00:43:49,667 --> 00:44:01,287
And the point I was making is, if you think about, you know, like most of information retrieval over the last decades has been web search, has been mostly Google.

886
00:44:01,667 --> 00:44:12,487
And so when, you know, the Transformers invented and ChatGPT becomes very popular, it's an independent app, independent experience, but it's like this text-based, chat-based experience.

887
00:44:12,487 --> 00:44:19,427
and google has i think very effectively incorporated its own llm technology into

888
00:44:19,427 --> 00:44:23,487
ai overviews that are part of the web search results page you look at the web search and

889
00:44:23,487 --> 00:44:27,387
then you get ai overviews like oh that's interesting and then there's this button that's

890
00:44:27,387 --> 00:44:32,507
dive deeper and then you enter effectively like a chat gpt like chat interface so there's this

891
00:44:32,507 --> 00:44:37,247
very natural glide path to go from like my old habits that billions of people use which is type

892
00:44:37,247 --> 00:44:44,407
in a term to kind of this new experience which is this like chat thing with its text and it kind of

893
00:44:44,407 --> 00:44:49,687
all flows nicely there's a very nice glide path my point is not that waifus are the future maybe

894
00:44:49,687 --> 00:44:57,267
they are maybe they're not but if that behavior becomes popular and if you're in the existing web

895
00:44:57,267 --> 00:45:11,374
search world or chat gpt world it not clear how you sort of upgrade a gentle glide path it just a brand new starting point could you tell us more about this waifu glide path so so the so so the

896
00:45:11,374 --> 00:45:16,854
waifu thing i've used it for all of 10 seconds so i'm not an expert at waifus um i in so you have

897
00:45:16,854 --> 00:45:23,334
to enable it we've seen the movie her though right yeah that's right so so you you flip a switch on

898
00:45:23,334 --> 00:45:27,894
you're super grok right you have to be subscribed to to grok and super grok and you flip a switch

899
00:45:27,894 --> 00:45:36,054
for companions and you're this is even legal to pay money for this at what point does that

900
00:45:36,054 --> 00:45:42,054
cross the line but you're talking to like a virtual girlfriend type experience right is

901
00:45:42,054 --> 00:45:48,954
but i think the thing i took issue to like a statement was made about how like um porn has

902
00:45:48,954 --> 00:45:54,534
been a driver of technology historically. And like that, I agree with it. I mean, you can look

903
00:45:54,534 --> 00:46:02,754
up history and like, whether it be VCRs or DVDs or even the browser and internet itself, like one

904
00:46:02,754 --> 00:46:11,074
of the first early adopter use cases that drove people to buy a VCR was porn. And so that definitely

905
00:46:11,074 --> 00:46:17,434
like catalyzed those technologies and then people found other uses for them. So there's no disputing

906
00:46:17,434 --> 00:46:24,474
that and that that's like historical fact um it does but it doesn't so so having like

907
00:46:24,474 --> 00:46:31,354
a sexy guy or girl visually as the interface for ai though i don't see that as the equivalent

908
00:46:31,354 --> 00:46:39,194
because in the case of like vcrs or whatever like i mean there's the use case of like i want porn

909
00:46:39,194 --> 00:46:45,454
that's my use case but then there's all these other yeah tell us more about this use case there's

910
00:46:45,454 --> 00:46:51,314
other use cases of like i just want to search for information or i want to book travel and i don't

911
00:46:51,314 --> 00:47:00,794
want like some kind of sexual interaction in the middle of that of that use case right so i would

912
00:47:00,794 --> 00:47:07,834
find it super annoying to have like anime in front of me like within lingerie like stockings when i

913
00:47:07,834 --> 00:47:13,054
want to like book travel or like ask like a question about quantum computing okay so i i will

914
00:47:13,054 --> 00:47:18,354
go on record and say waifus are the future. And I got waifu pilled in 2019. Steve, I hate to say it,

915
00:47:18,354 --> 00:47:23,554
you're not the target user, my friend, which is fine. I got waifu pilled because when I was living

916
00:47:23,554 --> 00:47:29,314
in what I would call sort of a nerdier MIT house with a lot of the early OpenAI people, one of them

917
00:47:29,314 --> 00:47:34,514
is, let's say, the smartest guy of that whole group. Like this guy was an alternate on the

918
00:47:34,514 --> 00:47:38,974
US national math team. That gives you an idea of what we're talking about here, okay? And he did a

919
00:47:38,974 --> 00:47:42,874
company and they were doing without giving away all the details. I don't know if he wants everything

920
00:47:42,874 --> 00:47:45,574
on the internet, but- You probably already said too much.

921
00:47:45,594 --> 00:47:51,554
I already probably said too much, but whatever. They were using AI for graphics and animation

922
00:47:51,554 --> 00:47:56,014
and stuff like that. And it got a little traction here and there. And then they had something,

923
00:47:56,074 --> 00:48:02,634
I'll just say it, whatever, go viral. So Waifu Labs. And Waifu Labs exploded in 2019. And there

924
00:48:02,634 --> 00:48:06,654
was all this talk on the Hacker News and people were calling them horrible and perverted. And yet

925
00:48:06,654 --> 00:48:10,934
the users just kept pouring in. Now, a lot of it was from Asia. So I think that's a huge thing

926
00:48:10,934 --> 00:48:15,394
to understand is what you're really going after here is like Korea, Japan, China, like that's,

927
00:48:15,494 --> 00:48:19,494
that's like, that's a thing over there. Um, but it's also in the United States. And I would say

928
00:48:19,494 --> 00:48:24,174
this is where, you know, um, to, uh, to sort of give a bit of a nod to autism capital thing.

929
00:48:24,214 --> 00:48:27,174
They get this right. You win the autist, the autists have the culture because they're the

930
00:48:27,174 --> 00:48:32,474
ones that are programming everything else. And so my, like, I think that Elon Musk,

931
00:48:32,894 --> 00:48:35,694
what makes him so amazing is he's not only an incredible engineer, he's not only a great

932
00:48:35,694 --> 00:48:40,954
a business person, but he understands the internet and he understands who these people

933
00:48:40,954 --> 00:48:45,274
are. And these are the people he's got working for him at places like XAI. And I would argue

934
00:48:45,274 --> 00:48:49,374
that for so many of those people, this is precisely what they want.

935
00:48:49,374 --> 00:48:52,654
Help me understand. You said it exploded. What was the use case?

936
00:48:53,754 --> 00:48:56,294
You created your own virtual girlfriend.

937
00:48:56,594 --> 00:48:58,374
Yeah, but you...

938
00:48:58,374 --> 00:49:01,374
And then their number one business model off of that was selling pillows.

939
00:49:01,954 --> 00:49:03,814
But that's... Okay.

940
00:49:03,814 --> 00:49:07,334
But Steve is saying that doesn't translate to broad-based information.

941
00:49:07,514 --> 00:49:17,694
Yeah, it's not the new, it never became the new UI for how I obtain information, communicate with people, a complete task.

942
00:49:17,694 --> 00:49:27,554
Maybe what I would say is it's about like this visual audio entry point to the internet instead of a text-based entry point.

943
00:49:27,554 --> 00:49:32,794
and if you're living in all your ui and your browser and everything is oriented around a text

944
00:49:32,794 --> 00:49:39,814
based input and kind of interaction then this having an audio visual starting point you know

945
00:49:39,814 --> 00:49:46,574
much like the movie her which doesn't have quite the same visuals but it's a very disruptive entry

946
00:49:46,574 --> 00:49:51,654
point you can't glide from a google search into that thing very easily i think that's like the

947
00:49:51,654 --> 00:49:56,034
main point i'm making not that everything has to be done with the waifu but that's just like a

948
00:49:56,034 --> 00:50:03,194
a showy kind of a surprising starting point but this but the idea of like i could imagine a future

949
00:50:03,194 --> 00:50:09,294
where i'm issuing my travel prompts to an audio interface and doesn't have to have a

950
00:50:09,294 --> 00:50:15,074
animation of a person it's just like in her didn't have an animation of a person i think it was right

951
00:50:15,074 --> 00:50:19,534
it was just like vibes and then audio but i think that's a very disruptive interface and i want to

952
00:50:19,534 --> 00:50:23,074
be clear i think it's going to go sort of out from here like the experience i ultimately want

953
00:50:23,074 --> 00:50:25,554
is just like, personally, is just like AirPods.

954
00:50:25,734 --> 00:50:26,294
Like I'm just talking.

955
00:50:26,334 --> 00:50:27,434
I don't even care about the fucking screen.

956
00:50:27,674 --> 00:50:28,834
I do want to be able to talk and be like,

957
00:50:28,874 --> 00:50:30,614
hey, can you, whatever, book my flight for me?

958
00:50:30,634 --> 00:50:31,334
Can you take care of all these things?

959
00:50:31,374 --> 00:50:32,254
I think that's the way we're headed.

960
00:50:32,474 --> 00:50:34,314
But I think if you look at adoption curves, right?

961
00:50:34,754 --> 00:50:36,454
The early adopters are going to be,

962
00:50:37,074 --> 00:50:38,914
and we may not understand these people necessarily,

963
00:50:39,074 --> 00:50:40,654
but the ones that are chronically online

964
00:50:40,654 --> 00:50:43,114
are the ones that will use the waifu for everything.

965
00:50:43,434 --> 00:50:45,034
Now that's whatever, 1% of the population,

966
00:50:45,174 --> 00:50:46,754
whatever it may be, but those are the ones-

967
00:50:46,754 --> 00:50:48,494
Early adopters of what though?

968
00:50:48,494 --> 00:50:51,174
I mean, ChadGBD already has 800 million users, right?

969
00:50:51,274 --> 00:50:52,634
We already have early adoption.

970
00:50:52,634 --> 00:50:57,334
everything in your life. We have late adoption of AI. Yeah, but that, I would say that's still

971
00:50:57,334 --> 00:51:02,634
very like, that's like, if you're still having to go to a screen and type something like that's like,

972
00:51:02,974 --> 00:51:07,834
like imagine you never turn this thing off. It's literally 24 seven. It is your new friend.

973
00:51:08,114 --> 00:51:11,034
Everywhere you go, it goes. And I think that's like, maybe that's kind of what you're getting

974
00:51:11,034 --> 00:51:15,094
as well, but it's a jump from like, oh, like I have a question or a query. I go and type it out.

975
00:51:15,294 --> 00:51:19,574
And so the people that are going to adopt having 24 seven on friends, and to be clear,

976
00:51:19,574 --> 00:51:20,954
I think it's going to grow out of waifus.

977
00:51:21,014 --> 00:51:22,134
I think that's the early adopters.

978
00:51:22,134 --> 00:51:23,014
But then from there,

979
00:51:23,074 --> 00:51:24,274
maybe you could imagine like,

980
00:51:24,574 --> 00:51:24,854
I don't know,

981
00:51:24,934 --> 00:51:25,854
you'll have for the Bitcoiners,

982
00:51:25,914 --> 00:51:26,634
like the Bitcoin guy,

983
00:51:26,734 --> 00:51:29,074
and you'll have all kinds of characters and whatever.

984
00:51:32,694 --> 00:51:33,834
Steve is unconvinced.

985
00:51:34,334 --> 00:51:35,014
No, I mean,

986
00:51:35,074 --> 00:51:37,334
we already have AI.

987
00:51:37,594 --> 00:51:38,154
People already use,

988
00:51:38,154 --> 00:51:39,594
hundreds of millions of people use AI.

989
00:51:39,854 --> 00:51:41,194
People speak to AI,

990
00:51:41,454 --> 00:51:41,794
audio,

991
00:51:41,994 --> 00:51:42,914
there's no dispute there.

992
00:51:43,114 --> 00:51:44,074
The movie Her,

993
00:51:44,214 --> 00:51:45,214
I think will come true.

994
00:51:45,334 --> 00:51:48,114
People will develop emotional attachments to their AI.

995
00:51:48,114 --> 00:51:50,274
I agree with all that.

996
00:51:51,514 --> 00:51:52,794
I just don't think

997
00:51:52,794 --> 00:51:55,554
porn is the interface for everything.

998
00:51:56,114 --> 00:51:56,774
And to be clear,

999
00:51:57,054 --> 00:51:59,354
the companions thing is not a porn thing,

1000
00:51:59,354 --> 00:52:00,554
but it's a little sexy.

1001
00:52:00,854 --> 00:52:02,794
And I think it's more just a surprising

1002
00:52:02,794 --> 00:52:06,034
departure from the utilitarian feel

1003
00:52:06,034 --> 00:52:06,954
of everything on the internet.

1004
00:52:07,114 --> 00:52:09,274
It's more like an entertainment-like feel.

1005
00:52:09,394 --> 00:52:11,214
I would call it more so than a porn feel.

1006
00:52:11,334 --> 00:52:13,434
And again, I would stress the point

1007
00:52:13,434 --> 00:52:15,374
that this is aiming for people

1008
00:52:15,374 --> 00:52:18,254
that play eSports or watch Twitch.

1009
00:52:19,314 --> 00:52:20,594
I'm not that audience.

1010
00:52:20,814 --> 00:52:22,354
You guys are not that audience.

1011
00:52:23,254 --> 00:52:25,714
But that's the audience that is chronically online.

1012
00:52:25,854 --> 00:52:27,314
And that chronically online audience

1013
00:52:27,314 --> 00:52:30,894
will be the first adopter of a 24-7 AI agent.

1014
00:52:31,414 --> 00:52:32,974
There's also phenomenon,

1015
00:52:33,174 --> 00:52:34,434
you've probably never seen this,

1016
00:52:34,794 --> 00:52:37,814
but there's, what's called Famify?

1017
00:52:38,134 --> 00:52:38,914
Have you seen Famify?

1018
00:52:39,914 --> 00:52:43,294
Famify is an extremely popular iPhone app

1019
00:52:43,294 --> 00:52:46,474
where you live stream yourself

1020
00:52:46,474 --> 00:52:47,714
as if you're an influencer

1021
00:52:47,714 --> 00:52:51,294
and you get likes and comments and stuff from bots

1022
00:52:51,294 --> 00:52:52,774
and you feel like a celebrity.

1023
00:52:53,674 --> 00:52:54,754
And you'd be like,

1024
00:52:55,094 --> 00:52:56,454
nobody would ever do that, right?

1025
00:52:56,454 --> 00:52:58,034
This is how society ends, ladies and gentlemen.

1026
00:52:58,054 --> 00:52:59,634
Obviously not something people would do.

1027
00:52:59,634 --> 00:52:59,814
Why do you see Famify?

1028
00:52:59,974 --> 00:53:00,654
It's all over.

1029
00:53:00,734 --> 00:53:03,294
I just popped on it the other day on the App Store

1030
00:53:03,294 --> 00:53:04,974
and I think it had a hundred.

1031
00:53:05,094 --> 00:53:06,034
I had myself in the back.

1032
00:53:08,334 --> 00:53:09,474
You're doing great, man.

1033
00:53:09,694 --> 00:53:10,174
I'm beautiful.

1034
00:53:10,274 --> 00:53:10,654
Oh, yeah.

1035
00:53:10,974 --> 00:53:11,374
Absolutely.

1036
00:53:11,594 --> 00:53:12,314
I'm so smart.

1037
00:53:12,454 --> 00:53:12,734
Stunning.

1038
00:53:12,734 --> 00:53:13,434
I'm so good.

1039
00:53:13,594 --> 00:53:14,034
So dumb.

1040
00:53:14,254 --> 00:53:15,154
I mean, it really is.

1041
00:53:15,294 --> 00:53:16,534
But it kind of goes into that point.

1042
00:53:17,114 --> 00:53:18,074
It's very dystopian.

1043
00:53:18,074 --> 00:53:25,074
What does it mean when you want likes and admiration from a person versus a bot?

1044
00:53:25,474 --> 00:53:28,194
I think everybody says, oh, I want it from a person, not a bot.

1045
00:53:28,274 --> 00:53:28,974
The bot's not valuable.

1046
00:53:29,074 --> 00:53:29,634
A person's valuable.

1047
00:53:29,914 --> 00:53:33,414
But if you're never going to meet the person, if it's just some random out there, why does it matter?

1048
00:53:34,114 --> 00:53:34,254
Yeah.

1049
00:53:34,794 --> 00:53:37,674
Well, I mean, to me, the value is if it's authentic.

1050
00:53:37,994 --> 00:53:38,154
Yeah.

1051
00:53:38,154 --> 00:53:42,614
So if like a really smart AI, like if value in my work and said, good job.

1052
00:53:42,614 --> 00:53:45,974
And I'd learned over time that like, it doesn't always do that.

1053
00:53:46,214 --> 00:53:47,294
It also is critical.

1054
00:53:47,674 --> 00:53:49,214
It has a high bar.

1055
00:53:49,374 --> 00:53:50,914
It rarely gives praise and it gave me praise.

1056
00:53:51,014 --> 00:53:52,314
I would, I would value that.

1057
00:53:52,554 --> 00:53:54,254
So it's not like human versus AI.

1058
00:53:54,494 --> 00:53:55,574
It's just like, is it authentic?

1059
00:53:56,054 --> 00:53:58,594
And it sounds like this game is like just complete nonsense.

1060
00:53:59,054 --> 00:54:00,454
Steve is giving the roadmap for the wife.

1061
00:54:00,574 --> 00:54:06,634
I think, I think this game has like 180,000 reviews or ratings on the app store.

1062
00:54:06,634 --> 00:54:09,314
so it's not small. I think we can zoom out

1063
00:54:09,314 --> 00:54:11,254
like I agree with you 100%

1064
00:54:11,254 --> 00:54:13,374
for better or for worse this is what's

1065
00:54:13,374 --> 00:54:15,254
going to happen. Now

1066
00:54:15,254 --> 00:54:17,314
I can put on my like human hat

1067
00:54:17,314 --> 00:54:19,274
that's kind of my investor hat like there

1068
00:54:19,274 --> 00:54:21,314
will be money to be made here Elon doesn't fuck around

1069
00:54:21,314 --> 00:54:23,274
my hat that I put on as a

1070
00:54:23,274 --> 00:54:25,134
human being though is kind of going to

1071
00:54:25,134 --> 00:54:27,054
think some of your points which is like this is really

1072
00:54:27,054 --> 00:54:28,754
this could get very dark mirror

1073
00:54:28,754 --> 00:54:31,014
very very very sad

1074
00:54:31,014 --> 00:54:32,774
very very quickly because it

1075
00:54:32,774 --> 00:54:35,014
I mean a lot of ways what it's accelerating is more

1076
00:54:35,014 --> 00:54:37,054
of like people isolating from the rest of the world.

1077
00:54:37,214 --> 00:54:39,974
It's like, you know, instead of having a real world relationship,

1078
00:54:39,974 --> 00:54:41,354
you have this virtual girl.

1079
00:54:41,354 --> 00:54:45,114
And like, instead of like, I don't know, like playing sports,

1080
00:54:45,294 --> 00:54:46,914
you first, then you play video games, then you play,

1081
00:54:47,014 --> 00:54:48,634
then you watch people play video games.

1082
00:54:48,714 --> 00:54:49,934
I don't get that either.

1083
00:54:49,934 --> 00:54:52,714
Like, like, to be clear, I think it's absolutely fucking insane.

1084
00:54:52,714 --> 00:54:54,914
And like, I'm trying to get off of screens as much as possible.

1085
00:54:55,314 --> 00:54:56,674
But, you know, I think you said before,

1086
00:54:56,734 --> 00:54:58,494
maybe that is the new luxury of this new world.

1087
00:54:58,494 --> 00:55:01,374
And it's like, you know, I have mixed feelings on this.

1088
00:55:01,374 --> 00:55:03,434
The luxury being off screens, not the wife.

1089
00:55:03,494 --> 00:55:04,014
Not the wife.

1090
00:55:05,014 --> 00:55:15,654
just to clarify it's not the 20 a month but like you know the kind of like bitcoin freedom

1091
00:55:15,654 --> 00:55:19,614
perspective in me is like i don't want to see everyone in the pottying bugs like that sounds

1092
00:55:19,614 --> 00:55:25,394
horrible and like i mean but then it's like well shit what do we do because like the forces of

1093
00:55:25,394 --> 00:55:29,154
technology seem to be you know it's like i feel like we're very much which way western man like

1094
00:55:29,154 --> 00:55:33,454
the the forces are pushing really fucking strong that way even though in general in a lot of ways

1095
00:55:33,454 --> 00:55:34,054
I like Elon.

1096
00:55:34,214 --> 00:55:35,154
I like what's going on with X

1097
00:55:35,154 --> 00:55:36,234
and a lot of the models and stuff.

1098
00:55:36,334 --> 00:55:37,214
Like, I mean,

1099
00:55:37,314 --> 00:55:38,014
what they're all doing

1100
00:55:38,014 --> 00:55:38,834
is harvesting attention.

1101
00:55:38,954 --> 00:55:40,194
Full stop, full stop.

1102
00:55:40,454 --> 00:55:42,054
And like, then I say,

1103
00:55:42,114 --> 00:55:43,154
well, what chance do we have

1104
00:55:43,154 --> 00:55:43,754
in this digital world?

1105
00:55:43,774 --> 00:55:44,854
And I think the best chance we have

1106
00:55:44,854 --> 00:55:45,694
is the Bitcoin community,

1107
00:55:45,774 --> 00:55:46,534
the Nostra community,

1108
00:55:46,614 --> 00:55:47,434
like as much saw

1109
00:55:47,434 --> 00:55:49,294
or just fucking throw your phone

1110
00:55:49,294 --> 00:55:49,974
in the river.

1111
00:55:50,514 --> 00:55:51,814
But I don't know

1112
00:55:51,814 --> 00:55:52,734
if that's really an option.

1113
00:55:52,834 --> 00:55:53,974
I mean, like it's like,

1114
00:55:54,034 --> 00:55:54,974
I mean, soon we'll have

1115
00:55:54,974 --> 00:55:55,794
social credit scores.

1116
00:55:55,794 --> 00:55:57,434
And like, if we don't have Bitcoin

1117
00:55:57,434 --> 00:55:58,554
ready to rock and roll for that,

1118
00:55:58,714 --> 00:55:59,294
what are you going to do?

1119
00:55:59,574 --> 00:56:00,874
I noticed no one is chatting

1120
00:56:00,874 --> 00:56:01,534
with us today.

1121
00:56:01,534 --> 00:56:01,974
I know.

1122
00:56:01,974 --> 00:56:05,914
I'm surprised people don't have views on this topic.

1123
00:56:05,934 --> 00:56:07,054
Especially the quantum stuff.

1124
00:56:07,494 --> 00:56:08,534
Or the wife business.

1125
00:56:09,154 --> 00:56:10,374
It's because we're at a different time.

1126
00:56:10,374 --> 00:56:11,834
I'll chalk it up to the time.

1127
00:56:11,934 --> 00:56:12,714
I asked her AI.

1128
00:56:12,854 --> 00:56:13,674
She said we're doing great.

1129
00:56:17,174 --> 00:56:21,534
Alex, if we're not getting audience engagement,

1130
00:56:21,794 --> 00:56:24,434
just add comments yourself.

1131
00:56:24,694 --> 00:56:25,194
Yeah, exactly.

1132
00:56:25,414 --> 00:56:27,414
Can you sock puppet stuff in there for us?

1133
00:56:27,454 --> 00:56:28,454
Can you give us some likes?

1134
00:56:29,394 --> 00:56:31,554
Maybe a couple of Bitcoin.

1135
00:56:31,554 --> 00:56:32,234
Thank you.

1136
00:56:32,694 --> 00:56:34,354
Should we talk about mining and AI?

1137
00:56:34,514 --> 00:56:35,194
Oh, yes.

1138
00:56:35,194 --> 00:56:35,894
You've been excited?

1139
00:56:36,194 --> 00:56:36,894
I'm very excited.

1140
00:56:36,934 --> 00:56:37,434
Talk about that.

1141
00:56:37,574 --> 00:56:38,654
I am as well.

1142
00:56:38,734 --> 00:56:41,454
Are you going to announce your new mining and AI venture?

1143
00:56:41,654 --> 00:56:41,834
Sure.

1144
00:56:41,974 --> 00:56:44,554
I mean, at a very high level.

1145
00:56:44,974 --> 00:56:46,694
Did Steve want to take us in a different direction?

1146
00:56:47,194 --> 00:56:48,634
I have a couple of things to talk about.

1147
00:56:48,814 --> 00:56:50,294
I want to hear what...

1148
00:56:50,294 --> 00:56:51,154
I'll frame it a little bit.

1149
00:56:51,314 --> 00:56:53,114
So, you know, I've been telling you guys this.

1150
00:56:53,194 --> 00:56:56,254
You know, I've been a solar maximalist longer than I've been a Bitcoin maximalist.

1151
00:56:56,334 --> 00:56:57,834
I've been obsessed with the curves.

1152
00:56:57,834 --> 00:57:12,854
So as a piece of context here, as an investor and just as a general enthusiast of the history of technology, one of the biggest lessons I've learned is when you see a natural law or order emerging, don't bet against it.

1153
00:57:12,914 --> 00:57:13,474
It's that simple.

1154
00:57:13,694 --> 00:57:15,154
Just trust the curves, man.

1155
00:57:15,674 --> 00:57:16,894
And Moore's Law.

1156
00:57:17,234 --> 00:57:27,574
How many companies made whatever, billions at that time when a billion was still worth something, dollars off of betting on every two years, we're going to get a lot more transistors on here.

1157
00:57:27,574 --> 00:57:29,034
It's going to get a lot faster, a lot cheaper.

1158
00:57:29,694 --> 00:57:30,714
Just bet with the curves.

1159
00:57:31,294 --> 00:57:33,774
And similarly, you know, the early AI people.

1160
00:57:33,874 --> 00:57:35,514
And I, you know, lived with a lot of these people.

1161
00:57:35,574 --> 00:57:39,234
And I was also very excited about this is you just look at like, how many flops are we

1162
00:57:39,234 --> 00:57:39,374
getting?

1163
00:57:39,494 --> 00:57:44,014
What's the relationship between flops and, you know, model size and data training?

1164
00:57:44,094 --> 00:57:48,494
Like there are laws that emerge for all of this stuff always, or maybe not always, but

1165
00:57:48,494 --> 00:57:50,274
in most technological trends, right?

1166
00:57:50,294 --> 00:57:52,954
And so, and by the way, I think that's something, you know, I mentioned to another one of our

1167
00:57:52,954 --> 00:57:56,934
mutual investor friends here is something that I would also love to see come out of this

1168
00:57:56,934 --> 00:58:02,414
quantum summit is what exactly, I'm still not sure, what is the Moore's law relationship we

1169
00:58:02,414 --> 00:58:06,514
should be tracking? As we think about how to freak out, the thing I want to know is what exactly is

1170
00:58:06,514 --> 00:58:11,714
it flops per qubit or I don't know what that relationship is. Air rates and then connecting

1171
00:58:11,714 --> 00:58:17,134
the different nodes. And whatever the size is, right? So I'd love to see this chart on a few

1172
00:58:17,134 --> 00:58:22,914
things versus qubits versus, I don't know, perhaps like total computational or energy spend,

1173
00:58:22,914 --> 00:58:28,234
whatever it is. And so anyways, so that's all there. Now I found one of these curves and became

1174
00:58:28,234 --> 00:58:33,534
obsessed with it in the, I guess, early 2010s, maybe a little bit later, maybe like 2014,

1175
00:58:33,994 --> 00:58:37,634
excuse me, era. And basically what I started seeing was that solar, which is, you know,

1176
00:58:37,674 --> 00:58:41,794
by the way, I heard a fantastic podcast. This needs to get, we need to rebrand solar panels

1177
00:58:41,794 --> 00:58:46,114
to quantum converters. I agree a hundred percent. You're taking photons and creating electricity

1178
00:58:46,114 --> 00:58:51,054
with it. You're literally creating a shift in a quantum state and it's magical. And solar panels,

1179
00:58:51,054 --> 00:58:54,114
basically, you know, it's very similar to semiconductor. In fact, it is a semiconductor

1180
00:58:54,114 --> 00:59:01,154
technology. And as you, you know, deploy more solar panels, the end-levelized cost of electricity

1181
00:59:01,154 --> 00:59:05,494
has just gotten, like, it's fallen at a consistent rate. Every double-level cumulative capacity,

1182
00:59:05,874 --> 00:59:10,314
the end-levelized cost of electricity falls 40% full stop. Now, you can debate a little bit on

1183
00:59:10,314 --> 00:59:13,794
those numbers depending on your data set, but, like, that's generally the relationship. Now,

1184
00:59:14,114 --> 00:59:17,794
people will come in, they'll say, yes, yes, yes, but, like, solar will never solve the problems

1185
00:59:17,794 --> 00:59:19,854
because the sun only shines during the day.

1186
00:59:19,954 --> 00:59:20,554
What about at night?

1187
00:59:20,654 --> 00:59:21,474
What about when it's cloudy

1188
00:59:21,474 --> 00:59:22,434
and we need firm power?

1189
00:59:22,514 --> 00:59:22,854
It's like, look,

1190
00:59:23,374 --> 00:59:24,814
there is another curve to follow,

1191
00:59:24,934 --> 00:59:25,874
which is the battery curve.

1192
00:59:26,334 --> 00:59:27,774
And every doubling of cumulative capacity

1193
00:59:27,774 --> 00:59:28,854
for lithium ion batteries,

1194
00:59:28,974 --> 00:59:30,314
and this is particularly at scale, right?

1195
00:59:30,374 --> 00:59:31,414
There are new technologies.

1196
00:59:31,574 --> 00:59:32,194
First, you have a breakthrough

1197
00:59:32,194 --> 00:59:32,974
and then you have the scaling.

1198
00:59:33,094 --> 00:59:33,914
And the scaling is where,

1199
00:59:34,234 --> 00:59:34,674
as an investor,

1200
00:59:34,754 --> 00:59:35,474
I can just look at the curve

1201
00:59:35,474 --> 00:59:36,134
and trust the curve.

1202
00:59:36,594 --> 00:59:37,774
Every doubling of cumulative capacity

1203
00:59:37,774 --> 00:59:38,694
of lithium ion batteries,

1204
00:59:39,074 --> 00:59:39,774
price per kilowatt hour,

1205
00:59:40,174 --> 00:59:41,794
falls roughly 20 to 25%,

1206
00:59:41,794 --> 00:59:43,494
again, depending on the data set you look at,

1207
00:59:43,934 --> 00:59:44,654
like clockwork.

1208
00:59:45,034 --> 00:59:45,954
Now, the good news is

1209
00:59:45,954 --> 00:59:47,234
these relationships critically

1210
00:59:47,234 --> 00:59:49,034
are not time relationships.

1211
00:59:49,494 --> 00:59:51,774
They are functions of units deployed.

1212
00:59:52,234 --> 00:59:53,154
So what that means is

1213
00:59:53,154 --> 00:59:54,674
if you deploy this stuff faster,

1214
00:59:54,894 --> 00:59:56,594
you get the cost falling faster.

1215
00:59:57,074 --> 00:59:58,854
This was the core thesis

1216
00:59:58,854 --> 01:00:00,994
of the 2021 Bitcoin paper.

1217
01:00:01,294 --> 01:00:03,134
Bitcoin is key to an abundant clean energy future,

1218
01:00:03,554 --> 01:00:05,054
which at the time also sounded crazy,

1219
01:00:05,134 --> 01:00:06,314
but like you just follow the curbs.

1220
01:00:06,594 --> 01:00:07,554
Faster you deploy that stuff,

1221
01:00:07,694 --> 01:00:08,154
cheaper it gets.

1222
01:00:08,354 --> 01:00:09,734
We're seeing this in China, right?

1223
01:00:10,094 --> 01:00:10,534
Exactly.

1224
01:00:11,014 --> 01:00:12,714
And so this sounds kind of horrible,

1225
01:00:12,874 --> 01:00:13,454
but whatever.

1226
01:00:13,694 --> 01:00:14,274
This is PBJ.

1227
01:00:14,274 --> 01:00:15,594
We keep it real.

1228
01:00:15,594 --> 01:00:21,734
I've heard from certain solar enthusiasts who have tried to explain this to people and people

1229
01:00:21,734 --> 01:00:27,314
just don't get it. They're like, oh no, that'll never work. Natural gas. The one thing that is

1230
01:00:27,314 --> 01:00:33,334
getting them traction on this argument is a little old fashioned xenophobia. When they show a chart

1231
01:00:33,334 --> 01:00:38,614
and say, hey, did you realize that China has deployed, there's many numbers you can use. The

1232
01:00:38,614 --> 01:00:42,374
one that I remember very clearly off the top of my head is they are on track to deploy over the

1233
01:00:42,374 --> 01:00:46,754
next three to four years, just in solar, forget nuclear. And there is a place for nuclear, but

1234
01:00:46,754 --> 01:00:49,694
it's much smaller than like mainstream would have you believe. There is a place for nat gas,

1235
01:00:49,934 --> 01:00:52,554
much smaller than mainstream would have you believe. There's basically not a place for coal,

1236
01:00:52,634 --> 01:00:58,274
but that's a separate story. Just the amount of solar they're deploying on the world today,

1237
01:00:59,214 --> 01:01:03,414
just solar, in the next three to four years, the current rate they're on will be more than the

1238
01:01:03,414 --> 01:01:08,594
entire generation capacity of everything in the United States. Natural gas, which is our like big

1239
01:01:08,594 --> 01:01:13,434
bread and butter, coal, solar, wind, all of it, even though we're deploying solar very quickly too.

1240
01:01:14,294 --> 01:01:17,574
So the Chinese are on top of this. They're literally paving their country in solar panels,

1241
01:01:17,954 --> 01:01:22,714
and China is leading far and away on batteries, lithium ion batteries. That's why they have

1242
01:01:22,714 --> 01:01:26,634
electric cars now that are like, you know, they can charge them faster than you can even charge

1243
01:01:26,634 --> 01:01:30,854
a Tesla, which by the way, the only person that really seems to get this in the United States is

1244
01:01:30,854 --> 01:01:35,274
Elon Musk. And thank God, because that gives us a shot to compete with China. So that's all what's

1245
01:01:35,274 --> 01:01:41,254
happening with solar and batteries. What are the bottlenecks? In terms of what? Well, if you can

1246
01:01:41,254 --> 01:01:46,494
look at all these curves and figure out as an investor that it makes sense, is there anybody

1247
01:01:46,494 --> 01:01:53,234
else who's looking at those curves? Oh, yeah. So what are the bottlenecks? Why do we not have

1248
01:01:53,234 --> 01:02:00,174
the whole of the Southwest painted in solar panels right now? Is it like regulation? Do we need tax

1249
01:02:00,174 --> 01:02:05,134
incentives? We're not in the right point. The curve. Yeah. We're getting to that point.

1250
01:02:05,274 --> 01:02:10,054
like we're like right at that point and so there's many ways to answer that one is sort of

1251
01:02:10,054 --> 01:02:16,034
philosophical which is why is everyone in the world not all in on bitcoin there's like understanding

1252
01:02:16,034 --> 01:02:20,434
and diffusion and like people are busy and like people are used to an old world and like we're

1253
01:02:20,434 --> 01:02:24,294
going through another thing that came away from the quantum summit is like phase shifts that the

1254
01:02:24,294 --> 01:02:28,274
world operates in phase shifts it's not linear growth it's like no there is a phase shift we're

1255
01:02:28,274 --> 01:02:31,174
going through a phase shift in energy we're going through a phase shift in money those things are

1256
01:02:31,174 --> 01:02:37,114
the same. By the way, Bitcoin, quantum computing, AI, all of it comes down to joules, always joules.

1257
01:02:37,274 --> 01:02:42,134
Energy is the base, full stop. And so why have we not deployed a lot more? Well, to be clear,

1258
01:02:42,194 --> 01:02:45,614
we're deploying a lot of solar and we're starting to deploy a lot more batteries. So to Steve's

1259
01:02:45,614 --> 01:02:50,434
point, we're right at that point on the curve, which is why this is my current obsession. I've

1260
01:02:50,434 --> 01:02:55,194
invested in a few companies. I'm extremely bullish on Satoshi Energy. I'm extremely bullish on

1261
01:02:55,194 --> 01:02:58,334
Crusoe, which I'm not an investor in, but oh my God, those two companies are going to kill it.

1262
01:02:58,334 --> 01:03:01,034
I'm extremely bullish on Tesla and Redwood Materials, which is phenomenal.

1263
01:03:01,174 --> 01:03:02,234
David and I are in bed.

1264
01:03:03,074 --> 01:03:03,774
I'm jealous.

1265
01:03:04,014 --> 01:03:04,514
I'm super jealous.

1266
01:03:06,054 --> 01:03:10,274
Chase is actually an investor in Highmine, and I'm hopeful maybe there'll be some stuff

1267
01:03:10,274 --> 01:03:11,254
to do in the future with all that.

1268
01:03:11,394 --> 01:03:13,194
But you guys are in a good spot.

1269
01:03:13,354 --> 01:03:15,274
That company is fucking killing it.

1270
01:03:16,454 --> 01:03:18,614
And so what's going on here?

1271
01:03:18,614 --> 01:03:26,114
Well, the reason we haven't deployed even more is, number one, the grid itself, regulation

1272
01:03:26,114 --> 01:03:27,074
and the grid itself.

1273
01:03:27,074 --> 01:03:33,554
right so let me just give you guys a quick there's so much swimming in my head here and i'm i'm hopeful

1274
01:03:33,554 --> 01:03:36,934
i'm going to be able to put this together and like i need to put out like a long essay that just goes

1275
01:03:36,934 --> 01:03:41,914
in this and like excruciating detail but let me try and get this high level the other thing that's

1276
01:03:41,914 --> 01:03:46,874
changing right now is demand right in the past we haven't also had to do this crazy shit i'm about

1277
01:03:46,874 --> 01:03:50,674
to talk about because there wasn't the real demand it's like yeah we could always a little bit more

1278
01:03:50,674 --> 01:03:54,794
electricity but like the electricity industry and the powers it's a very sleepy industry the

1279
01:03:54,794 --> 01:03:59,214
Utilities are mostly government grants and monopolies and like don't really care.

1280
01:03:59,274 --> 01:04:02,554
And these guys kind of collect their paychecks and they set rates and it's not really free

1281
01:04:02,554 --> 01:04:03,334
market capitals, right?

1282
01:04:03,774 --> 01:04:09,334
Now, what's happening is that the shift, the reason the curves were crossing that point

1283
01:04:09,334 --> 01:04:12,094
in the curves faster than a lot of people expected is AI.

1284
01:04:12,974 --> 01:04:16,974
And so what's happening is the demand for power is literally going parabolic.

1285
01:04:17,554 --> 01:04:20,814
And so to give you guys a little sense and shout out to Brock Peterson, co-founder of

1286
01:04:20,814 --> 01:04:23,554
Satoshi Energy, one of the companies I'm most bullish on the world.

1287
01:04:23,554 --> 01:04:29,634
very, very, very lucky to be an investor there. Oh my God. You guys know what's up. And by the way,

1288
01:04:30,074 --> 01:04:33,334
kudos to them for coining the term energy backed money because they understood where this was going

1289
01:04:33,334 --> 01:04:40,394
a long time ago, many years ago with Bitcoin, right? But Brock said in a recent podcast,

1290
01:04:40,594 --> 01:04:45,094
which if you go to my Twitter feed, I shared the podcast on there, that in Texas right now,

1291
01:04:45,474 --> 01:04:52,074
okay, there's a peak demand of about 80 gigawatts, 80 gigawatts. That means that for the whole state

1292
01:04:52,074 --> 01:04:56,734
of Texas, like if you're running your refrigerators and your air conditioners and there's an aluminum

1293
01:04:56,734 --> 01:05:01,154
smelter and industrial everything, it's about 80 gigawatts peak demand. That's the amount of power

1294
01:05:01,154 --> 01:05:04,854
you're pulling from the grid. Okay. Guess how much there is right now. I may have already told you,

1295
01:05:04,854 --> 01:05:14,754
there is just to build AI data centers demand. 140. Okay. So almost double all of the humans. So

1296
01:05:14,754 --> 01:05:20,034
the big story here is that humans are becoming a rounding error. The AI wave has barely even

1297
01:05:20,034 --> 01:05:25,074
started and we're already trying to double all of human capacity in the most free market in the

1298
01:05:25,074 --> 01:05:31,114
United States and therefore probably the world in Texas. And we haven't even started. And now you're

1299
01:05:31,114 --> 01:05:35,614
looking around, you're seeing like fucking Mark Zuckerberg is coming out here dropping, oh, I don't

1300
01:05:35,614 --> 01:05:39,754
know, unlimited money, hundreds of millions and billions of dollars on researchers, has confirmed

1301
01:05:39,754 --> 01:05:46,934
plans to build multi, multi gigawatt data centers right now. One of them, five gigawatts will be

1302
01:05:46,934 --> 01:05:53,314
footprint of Manhattan. And that's one company. And that's a company that's playing catch-up to

1303
01:05:53,314 --> 01:05:57,734
a company that's going to absolutely smoke him on that front, which is Elon Musk, XAI, because

1304
01:05:57,734 --> 01:06:01,354
they're the only ones that have access to all the elements that you need for this, the solar,

1305
01:06:01,694 --> 01:06:05,874
the power walls, the batteries, and in the short run, the natural gas generators to back that up.

1306
01:06:05,914 --> 01:06:09,294
I'm not saying natural gas and nuclear will have a short-term place, but they can't compete on

1307
01:06:09,294 --> 01:06:13,794
costs in the long run. Elon understands this. So when you look at all these things coming together,

1308
01:06:13,794 --> 01:06:17,954
it's no surprise that some of the stuff you were sharing in the chat, which is a lot of the old

1309
01:06:17,954 --> 01:06:23,734
companies that started off as Bitcoin miners, and we're all in on this now, effectively are taking

1310
01:06:23,734 --> 01:06:29,054
those sites that they were brokering for Bitcoin miners and just giving it to big tech to build AI

1311
01:06:29,054 --> 01:06:32,874
data centers because the demand, like they will pay any price for it. I'm being a little bit,

1312
01:06:33,234 --> 01:06:37,454
you know, whatever. I'm being a little ridiculous that of course there is a price, but like-

1313
01:06:37,454 --> 01:06:40,714
But it's not as, it's not as mercenary. Like you can look at the dollar flow and the,

1314
01:06:40,714 --> 01:06:42,834
and the, you know, what you can sell it for.

1315
01:06:42,894 --> 01:06:43,094
Yes.

1316
01:06:43,194 --> 01:06:44,574
In the case of Bitcoin, in AI,

1317
01:06:44,654 --> 01:06:47,274
you're always investing for a further forward future.

1318
01:06:47,554 --> 01:06:49,654
At least 3X more in AI and often way more.

1319
01:06:49,734 --> 01:06:51,334
Now, and Bitcoin still has a role in all this, right?

1320
01:06:51,354 --> 01:06:53,534
I'm still extremely bullish on Bitcoin mining

1321
01:06:53,534 --> 01:06:54,854
and it's going to go up too from here.

1322
01:06:55,154 --> 01:06:57,594
But anyways, but the TLDR, my current obsession,

1323
01:06:58,034 --> 01:07:01,994
if there are Bitcoin and or energy entrepreneurs

1324
01:07:01,994 --> 01:07:04,154
or people that are thinking about entrepreneurs,

1325
01:07:04,454 --> 01:07:06,434
maybe you're, I don't know, about to leave Tesla

1326
01:07:06,434 --> 01:07:07,954
and you're interested in this.

1327
01:07:07,954 --> 01:07:10,314
My number one goal right now is,

1328
01:07:10,314 --> 01:07:12,234
basically how do we build all of this?

1329
01:07:12,374 --> 01:07:13,174
The grid can't take it.

1330
01:07:13,194 --> 01:07:14,234
The regulation is way too slow.

1331
01:07:14,294 --> 01:07:16,814
There's over 400 gigawatts of solar and storage alone

1332
01:07:16,814 --> 01:07:18,634
in the interconnection queue in ERCOT, which is Texas.

1333
01:07:18,794 --> 01:07:19,934
It's not getting approved.

1334
01:07:20,074 --> 01:07:20,914
They're moving way too slow.

1335
01:07:21,314 --> 01:07:22,894
Even if the government comes in and says,

1336
01:07:22,974 --> 01:07:24,674
hey guys, again, xenophobia at play.

1337
01:07:24,774 --> 01:07:26,474
China's racing ahead slash all regulations.

1338
01:07:26,634 --> 01:07:27,254
Build, baby, build.

1339
01:07:27,434 --> 01:07:42,261
We cannot keep up full stop The grid too old The machine too broken So my new obsession is I got a couple of people I starting to idea it with here I definitely want to make a few investments on this trend I may incubate a thing or two here as well is how do we build all this off and then

1340
01:07:42,261 --> 01:07:46,681
reconnect it later, probably settling over Bitcoin and Lightning, into a new, eventually,

1341
01:07:47,121 --> 01:07:51,801
Buckminster Fuller-style intercontinental solar and battery-powered grid? That's where we're

1342
01:07:51,801 --> 01:07:56,321
headed. One last data point, and then I'll let you guys jump in on this. The most important story

1343
01:07:56,321 --> 01:08:01,061
of the last month, in my opinion, is Redwood Materials, which founded by J.B. Straubel,

1344
01:08:01,141 --> 01:08:06,101
co-founder of Tesla, current board member of Tesla, spun out of Tesla. And they were basically,

1345
01:08:06,241 --> 01:08:10,281
they are recycling lithium-ion batteries from Tesla's, now with GM. That means they can get

1346
01:08:10,281 --> 01:08:13,821
the cost of batteries low enough where it starts to make sense to go totally off-grid.

1347
01:08:14,421 --> 01:08:18,601
Late last year, one of the DR dudes, I forget his name, microgrid dudes, he put out a paper with

1348
01:08:18,601 --> 01:08:21,901
some of the Stripe people saying, hey guys, it could make sense in theory to build a totally

1349
01:08:21,901 --> 01:08:25,041
off-grid solar battery-powered data center.

1350
01:08:25,381 --> 01:08:27,961
And everyone's like, oh yeah, that's cool in theory, but it's not happening.

1351
01:08:28,041 --> 01:08:29,801
And if it's not happening, it means it's not real, right?

1352
01:08:29,801 --> 01:08:31,361
Because the market builds what's real.

1353
01:08:31,981 --> 01:08:38,241
Well, Redwood now announced Redwood Energy, and in conjunction with Crusoe, has built

1354
01:08:38,241 --> 01:08:42,121
the first operational, not theoretical, it's live today, with Crusoe's data centers.

1355
01:08:42,901 --> 01:08:45,641
Shout out to Chase, that man is on top of this stuff.

1356
01:08:45,641 --> 01:08:50,241
and they have built the first totally solar

1357
01:08:50,241 --> 01:08:52,541
and battery powered data center.

1358
01:08:52,761 --> 01:08:54,560
It's 12 megawatts to give you a sense

1359
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:56,781
that's small in the comparison of things I'm thinking about,

1360
01:08:56,821 --> 01:08:57,581
but it's not nothing.

1361
01:08:57,661 --> 01:08:59,821
In fact, it's 20 acres of solar panels.

1362
01:08:59,981 --> 01:09:00,801
It's a lot, right?

1363
01:09:01,621 --> 01:09:04,741
My new sort of like fantasy and where I'm going

1364
01:09:04,741 --> 01:09:08,981
is how do you go from 12 megawatts to 12 terawatts?

1365
01:09:10,041 --> 01:09:10,821
And that's-

1366
01:09:10,821 --> 01:09:12,901
And you want to do this as a totally brand new grid,

1367
01:09:13,361 --> 01:09:14,701
not like the existing stuff.

1368
01:09:14,701 --> 01:09:16,121
If you want to do totally brand new infrastructure.

1369
01:09:16,381 --> 01:09:17,581
I think you go off-grid first

1370
01:09:17,581 --> 01:09:18,761
and then you rebuild a new grid.

1371
01:09:19,041 --> 01:09:19,781
And then if you're feeling-

1372
01:09:19,781 --> 01:09:20,681
And does off-grid mean you're,

1373
01:09:20,841 --> 01:09:22,341
you are interconnecting with,

1374
01:09:22,341 --> 01:09:25,461
with like end consumers or industrial applications?

1375
01:09:25,461 --> 01:09:27,201
Are you doing it all with Bitcoin mining

1376
01:09:27,201 --> 01:09:28,041
or how do you sort of-

1377
01:09:28,041 --> 01:09:29,361
Well, to be determined,

1378
01:09:29,501 --> 01:09:31,001
and that's why I'm looking for the right people

1379
01:09:31,001 --> 01:09:32,261
to partner with on doing this

1380
01:09:32,261 --> 01:09:33,401
because I think there's a couple of ways you can go.

1381
01:09:33,481 --> 01:09:36,321
I'm still figuring out exactly what the play is,

1382
01:09:36,461 --> 01:09:38,481
but primarily you're just powering data centers.

1383
01:09:38,601 --> 01:09:40,681
So it's like totally off-grid AI compute.

1384
01:09:41,101 --> 01:09:41,761
I think Bitcoin mining-

1385
01:09:41,761 --> 01:09:42,560
Solar plus battery.

1386
01:09:42,681 --> 01:09:43,301
Solar plus battery.

1387
01:09:43,601 --> 01:09:46,021
Bitcoin mining can play certainly a role here for sure.

1388
01:09:46,761 --> 01:09:47,961
And I think that like,

1389
01:09:48,241 --> 01:09:49,041
there are certain advantages

1390
01:09:49,041 --> 01:09:50,201
you have with things like Bitcoin mining

1391
01:09:50,201 --> 01:09:51,361
that you don't have with the AI compute.

1392
01:09:51,441 --> 01:09:52,541
For example, the Bitcoin miners,

1393
01:09:52,981 --> 01:09:54,661
you know, you can just like turn on and off

1394
01:09:54,661 --> 01:09:55,321
at a moment's notice.

1395
01:09:55,621 --> 01:09:56,461
With the AI compute,

1396
01:09:56,621 --> 01:09:57,841
you might be able to do some of that for inference.

1397
01:09:57,921 --> 01:09:59,181
If you're doing a big model training run,

1398
01:09:59,221 --> 01:09:59,901
you can't do that.

1399
01:10:00,801 --> 01:10:03,181
So I think there's probably something

1400
01:10:03,181 --> 01:10:04,581
in kind of combining these things,

1401
01:10:04,801 --> 01:10:06,681
potentially even eventually combining them

1402
01:10:06,681 --> 01:10:08,901
with, you know, some of the like longer term stuff,

1403
01:10:08,961 --> 01:10:09,741
like the green hydrogen,

1404
01:10:10,161 --> 01:10:12,361
like the desal, desalination water,

1405
01:10:12,361 --> 01:10:14,041
like all kinds of crazy things.

1406
01:10:14,681 --> 01:10:16,781
But I think where Bitcoin is going to play a big role

1407
01:10:16,781 --> 01:10:18,941
is you kind of have each of these nodes pop up.

1408
01:10:19,261 --> 01:10:20,560
And I think there's also something very interesting

1409
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:22,101
around how these data centers could potentially be

1410
01:10:22,101 --> 01:10:25,481
a sort of linked up, uncensorable cloud as well.

1411
01:10:25,541 --> 01:10:27,001
And I think that's a necessary ingredient

1412
01:10:27,001 --> 01:10:28,421
for the digital life stuff we've talked about.

1413
01:10:28,481 --> 01:10:29,741
But that's its own rabbit hole.

1414
01:10:29,941 --> 01:10:31,921
But eventually you could link these different nodes

1415
01:10:31,921 --> 01:10:32,541
in the grid up.

1416
01:10:32,801 --> 01:10:33,921
And the way you would have to do that

1417
01:10:33,921 --> 01:10:34,581
if you're going to get around

1418
01:10:34,581 --> 01:10:36,441
a lot of the old school regulatory and like,

1419
01:10:36,761 --> 01:10:37,560
you know, basically,

1420
01:10:37,721 --> 01:10:39,381
I don't mean to shit on the old grid and stuff.

1421
01:10:39,461 --> 01:10:41,161
What I'm saying is the old world is dying.

1422
01:10:41,161 --> 01:10:43,941
and in order to feed the bots in this new world,

1423
01:10:44,021 --> 01:10:45,381
we need a new paradigm for energy

1424
01:10:45,381 --> 01:10:46,841
and the old grid ain't going to cut it.

1425
01:10:47,661 --> 01:10:52,101
The main thing I wanted to add to the conversation,

1426
01:10:52,941 --> 01:10:54,321
many episodes ago,

1427
01:10:54,521 --> 01:10:57,060
you brought up the topic of like,

1428
01:10:57,901 --> 01:11:00,221
you know, what's the impact of Bitcoin mining

1429
01:11:00,221 --> 01:11:02,821
when a lot of these Bitcoin miners

1430
01:11:02,821 --> 01:11:05,541
or their sites are transitioning to AI

1431
01:11:05,541 --> 01:11:07,661
and high performance computing

1432
01:11:07,661 --> 01:11:09,441
because there's like more money to be made there.

1433
01:11:09,601 --> 01:11:10,560
And at the time I'm like,

1434
01:11:11,161 --> 01:11:12,441
no, whatever.

1435
01:11:12,841 --> 01:11:14,381
Mine will just pop up elsewhere.

1436
01:11:15,381 --> 01:11:18,141
Either there's profits to be had or there's not.

1437
01:11:19,581 --> 01:11:21,821
And I still think that's true.

1438
01:11:22,721 --> 01:11:26,121
But the new insight is that

1439
01:11:26,121 --> 01:11:30,121
companies driving AI and data centers,

1440
01:11:30,341 --> 01:11:32,861
it's not necessarily incompatible with Bitcoin mining.

1441
01:11:34,041 --> 01:11:38,181
Because what Bitcoin miners have done well at historically

1442
01:11:38,181 --> 01:11:43,621
is identify low-cost energy locations

1443
01:11:43,621 --> 01:11:46,281
and begin building them out.

1444
01:11:46,601 --> 01:11:48,501
Because as we know, Bitcoin mining,

1445
01:11:48,841 --> 01:11:51,641
there's really only two primary cost components,

1446
01:11:52,121 --> 01:11:54,021
buying the equipment and low-cost energy.

1447
01:11:54,201 --> 01:11:55,121
So once you have your equipment,

1448
01:11:55,381 --> 01:11:58,361
the only thing you optimize for as a business really

1449
01:11:58,361 --> 01:11:59,681
is low-cost energy.

1450
01:11:59,681 --> 01:12:02,321
So site surveys and identifying that's important.

1451
01:12:02,681 --> 01:12:03,361
The other thing is,

1452
01:12:03,941 --> 01:12:05,981
Bitcoin mining doesn't need as much infrastructure

1453
01:12:05,981 --> 01:12:08,661
as most other applications of energy.

1454
01:12:09,381 --> 01:12:10,081
So you can be,

1455
01:12:10,241 --> 01:12:13,661
I've been to remote locations in Kenya.

1456
01:12:13,821 --> 01:12:15,401
They're like six hours from Nairobi.

1457
01:12:15,641 --> 01:12:17,381
It's like out in the middle of nowhere,

1458
01:12:17,701 --> 01:12:19,821
but there's water flowing there,

1459
01:12:20,141 --> 01:12:21,181
cheap energy,

1460
01:12:21,341 --> 01:12:22,881
and they added Bitcoin mining.

1461
01:12:24,461 --> 01:12:25,981
So Bitcoin miners are very good

1462
01:12:25,981 --> 01:12:27,281
at identifying those locations,

1463
01:12:27,441 --> 01:12:28,321
begin Bitcoin mining,

1464
01:12:28,721 --> 01:12:30,841
but those locations don't yet

1465
01:12:30,841 --> 01:12:33,081
have the infrastructure for AI,

1466
01:12:33,361 --> 01:12:34,461
like high-speed internet,

1467
01:12:34,761 --> 01:12:35,821
because Bitcoin doesn't require

1468
01:12:35,821 --> 01:12:39,681
high-speed internet and other infrastructure.

1469
01:12:41,261 --> 01:12:45,281
So what companies that want to do, you know,

1470
01:12:45,421 --> 01:12:48,281
use these locations for AI with low energy,

1471
01:12:48,281 --> 01:12:50,041
they have to wait until it matures

1472
01:12:50,041 --> 01:12:52,421
so that it has stronger infrastructure,

1473
01:12:52,821 --> 01:12:54,481
more robust infrastructure for AI.

1474
01:12:55,141 --> 01:12:56,921
Although one data point on that is that

1475
01:12:56,921 --> 01:12:59,201
Crusoe is lowering that barrier

1476
01:12:59,201 --> 01:13:01,221
with their new sort of off-grid compute cluster.

1477
01:13:01,341 --> 01:13:03,461
Yes, still fiber and all those things make it better,

1478
01:13:03,560 --> 01:13:05,141
but like both things are happening.

1479
01:13:05,141 --> 01:13:06,821
The bar is getting lowered.

1480
01:13:07,601 --> 01:13:16,101
So there's always going to be a need to develop new sites and find cheap energy.

1481
01:13:16,841 --> 01:13:20,001
And so Bitcoin mining can be that scout.

1482
01:13:20,241 --> 01:13:21,521
Yeah, the tip of the spear.

1483
01:13:21,521 --> 01:13:39,261
And also the economic, and it reminds me of the paper that you wrote and worked with Block on four years ago, because the idea there too is like, well, there's all this energy, renewable energy that can't just waiting to be connected to the grid or, or it's built, it's built out for a city.

1484
01:13:40,161 --> 01:13:49,001
And it, the, the supply was built out for a 25 year plan, but for many years, the city's not creating the demand.

1485
01:13:49,001 --> 01:13:49,321
Yeah.

1486
01:13:49,321 --> 01:13:51,821
so you have all this wasted supply well guess what

1487
01:13:51,821 --> 01:13:53,841
plug in bitcoin mining for the supply

1488
01:13:53,841 --> 01:13:55,261
that's not used by the city yet

1489
01:13:55,261 --> 01:13:57,681
and it reduces the economic cost

1490
01:13:57,681 --> 01:13:59,681
for the project so it's a similar

1491
01:13:59,681 --> 01:14:01,060
dynamic here I think

1492
01:14:01,060 --> 01:14:03,701
as a site goes from

1493
01:14:03,701 --> 01:14:05,541
nothing to

1494
01:14:05,541 --> 01:14:07,681
has energy to has all the infrastructure you need for

1495
01:14:07,681 --> 01:14:09,861
AI that takes a period of time

1496
01:14:09,861 --> 01:14:11,721
and bitcoin mining can be plugged in then

1497
01:14:11,721 --> 01:14:13,781
and I think it's important and honestly it would be awesome

1498
01:14:13,781 --> 01:14:15,881
so Alex I don't know if we can get this in the show notes

1499
01:14:15,881 --> 01:14:17,641
as well but that paper bitcoin is key to an abundant

1500
01:14:17,641 --> 01:14:21,881
a clean energy future. It's interesting, not only for the sort of arguments, but ARK built a model

1501
01:14:21,881 --> 01:14:26,901
with that paper, which allowed you to kind of see when does it make sense for solar batteries to go

1502
01:14:26,901 --> 01:14:31,021
fully powering Bitcoin miners. And of course, there's nuance to that, right? It's one thing

1503
01:14:31,021 --> 01:14:36,081
if you're using the sort of deprecated S9s versus newer miners, because then you could do it without

1504
01:14:36,081 --> 01:14:40,301
the batteries, et cetera, et cetera. But I think one thing that's changed since then, it'd be

1505
01:14:40,301 --> 01:14:44,361
interesting to rerun those numbers in the model, which I actually haven't done yet. But again,

1506
01:14:44,361 --> 01:14:51,421
is the fact that Crusoe and Redwood have built a 12 megawatt site that pencils enough, at least

1507
01:14:51,421 --> 01:14:56,681
for them to show it as a demo, is, again, the secret is trust the curves. As I said, this is

1508
01:14:56,681 --> 01:15:00,821
super, super important point. It's not time dependent, it's scale dependent, volume dependent.

1509
01:15:01,121 --> 01:15:04,521
So if you start deploying that stuff like crazy, and the other thing that I'm always looking is

1510
01:15:04,521 --> 01:15:09,781
look at XAI's public filings in Memphis, right? And there's like through like a latticework of

1511
01:15:09,781 --> 01:15:14,161
different companies, but they're buying up a lot of land. And so I fully expect Elon to pay you

1512
01:15:14,161 --> 01:15:20,401
Yes, and around Memphis, which, by the way, represent. It's no surprise that-

1513
01:15:20,401 --> 01:15:21,101
How is that?

1514
01:15:21,901 --> 01:15:25,921
It's not a coincidence. It's not. I stopped making a coincidence a long time ago.

1515
01:15:26,101 --> 01:15:27,041
He's a Memphis guy.

1516
01:15:27,101 --> 01:15:27,501
Oh, okay, yeah.

1517
01:15:28,121 --> 01:15:35,361
It's my birthplace. It's going to be the birthplace of yours truly and EGI, or whatever we're calling it now, superintelligence.

1518
01:15:35,361 --> 01:15:41,641
Um, so, so the, the thing that the important point is as, and your point, like this is where

1519
01:15:41,641 --> 01:15:44,461
you have to get kind of in the nitty gritty and why I'm looking for the right people to

1520
01:15:44,461 --> 01:15:45,481
work with on this idea.

1521
01:15:45,741 --> 01:15:48,741
Um, we're right around where it's starting to make sense.

1522
01:15:48,741 --> 01:15:53,401
Like it could be a few more months in some cases, but the faster the Elon and co start

1523
01:15:53,401 --> 01:15:56,461
paving the world and solar panels, everyone gets that benefit.

1524
01:15:56,461 --> 01:16:01,841
The faster China starts paving that benefit, like Bitcoin flows through to anyone that

1525
01:16:01,841 --> 01:16:03,161
wants to be an entrepreneur in the space.

1526
01:16:03,161 --> 01:16:04,801
And to be clear, it's going to be cut through it, right?

1527
01:16:04,801 --> 01:16:07,081
because, I mean, you're literally competing against China.

1528
01:16:08,181 --> 01:16:09,681
Not necessarily competing against China,

1529
01:16:09,741 --> 01:16:12,181
but like they're out there buying the panels.

1530
01:16:12,520 --> 01:16:13,501
They're also making the panels.

1531
01:16:13,701 --> 01:16:15,060
The more they deploy them, the cheaper they get.

1532
01:16:15,161 --> 01:16:17,101
But anyways, the point is like mining,

1533
01:16:17,221 --> 01:16:18,941
it probably is going to be a very tough business.

1534
01:16:19,041 --> 01:16:21,060
Is most of the manufacturing of the panels done in China?

1535
01:16:21,381 --> 01:16:22,401
Like all of it basically?

1536
01:16:22,401 --> 01:16:23,081
Yes, and there's a whole,

1537
01:16:23,281 --> 01:16:24,981
well, there are some that have moved out of there,

1538
01:16:25,041 --> 01:16:25,921
but effectively, yes.

1539
01:16:26,201 --> 01:16:27,461
And that's another whole topic

1540
01:16:27,461 --> 01:16:29,041
and very sort of potential issue for concern.

1541
01:16:29,121 --> 01:16:30,041
I think that's another thing

1542
01:16:30,041 --> 01:16:31,801
that needs to be reshored to the United States

1543
01:16:31,801 --> 01:16:33,341
or to US allies like Mexico

1544
01:16:33,341 --> 01:16:35,721
is there's concerns around

1545
01:16:35,721 --> 01:16:37,881
even the inverters

1546
01:16:37,881 --> 01:16:40,121
in the solar panels alike.

1547
01:16:40,621 --> 01:16:41,601
Can that be hacked

1548
01:16:41,601 --> 01:16:42,721
and listening to us probably?

1549
01:16:44,501 --> 01:16:44,921
So anyways,

1550
01:16:45,401 --> 01:16:45,841
point is,

1551
01:16:45,901 --> 01:16:47,961
it's a really, really exciting space.

1552
01:16:48,101 --> 01:16:49,001
I'm going to be obsessed with this

1553
01:16:49,001 --> 01:16:50,101
for the next couple of months.

1554
01:16:50,201 --> 01:16:52,101
I know you guys both may have some ideas

1555
01:16:52,101 --> 01:16:53,141
on who these entrepreneurs could be,

1556
01:16:53,221 --> 01:16:54,101
but if you're listening to this.

1557
01:16:54,281 --> 01:16:55,341
Yeah, I already found your CEO.

1558
01:16:55,520 --> 01:16:56,241
Let's fucking go, man.

1559
01:16:57,461 --> 01:16:58,041
Get ready.

1560
01:16:58,941 --> 01:16:59,481
I'm in.

1561
01:16:59,821 --> 01:17:00,121
All right.

1562
01:17:00,181 --> 01:17:02,081
I'll make the intro after the show.

1563
01:17:02,181 --> 01:17:02,520
I love it.

1564
01:17:02,520 --> 01:17:03,661
All right, I'll write an angel check.

1565
01:17:05,361 --> 01:17:07,621
We had so many exciting topics

1566
01:17:07,621 --> 01:17:08,241
cued up today.

1567
01:17:08,381 --> 01:17:10,401
I'm just going to throw us into another one.

1568
01:17:10,401 --> 01:17:10,841
Okay, it's good.

1569
01:17:10,841 --> 01:17:11,681
Which is probably a short one.

1570
01:17:12,020 --> 01:17:12,261
Okay.

1571
01:17:12,761 --> 01:17:15,781
But so many people in Bitcoin

1572
01:17:15,781 --> 01:17:17,201
love that how numbers go up

1573
01:17:17,201 --> 01:17:18,661
and they get excited about the price

1574
01:17:18,661 --> 01:17:19,901
and it hits $100,000

1575
01:17:19,901 --> 01:17:22,301
and now it's $120,000 and whatever.

1576
01:17:23,221 --> 01:17:25,461
So it's always relative to US dollars.

1577
01:17:25,560 --> 01:17:27,041
That's what people typically quote.

1578
01:17:27,381 --> 01:17:28,841
US dollars is what most people,

1579
01:17:29,241 --> 01:17:30,501
certainly Americans,

1580
01:17:30,701 --> 01:17:31,501
but people globally,

1581
01:17:31,501 --> 01:17:39,101
like generally understand what a dollar is worth um it's extremely rare to quote the price of

1582
01:17:39,101 --> 01:17:47,181
bitcoin relative to gold right and um and i really haven't thought too much about that but then just

1583
01:17:47,181 --> 01:17:56,560
the other day you um mentioned like danny gave you gave a shout out to danny for for um uh i forget

1584
01:17:56,560 --> 01:18:01,381
exactly what but i mean basically relating it to that metric so then so then i i

1585
01:18:01,501 --> 01:18:13,301
I was curious about the history chart, you know, because I'm aware gold has increased from the neighborhood of, it's basically doubled in the past four years or so.

1586
01:18:13,381 --> 01:18:13,581
Yeah.

1587
01:18:14,081 --> 01:18:18,461
From like 1600 and something to 3300 and something per ounce.

1588
01:18:19,281 --> 01:18:22,341
So I was just curious about how does that match up to Bitcoin's rise?

1589
01:18:22,341 --> 01:18:27,341
And obviously you can cherry pick various timeframes to pick your story.

1590
01:18:27,341 --> 01:18:33,181
But I was just surprised that you, because usually Bitcoin outperforms like everything.

1591
01:18:33,361 --> 01:18:39,481
If you zoom out to four plus years, obviously if you zoom into less than a year, then it's all that's off.

1592
01:18:39,721 --> 01:18:39,801
Yeah.

1593
01:18:40,361 --> 01:18:46,621
But if you zoom out enough and usually it's four years, it's just a guarantee that like wildly outperforms anything you compare it to.

1594
01:18:46,981 --> 01:18:51,041
But when I looked at gold the past four years, it actually was flat.

1595
01:18:51,041 --> 01:18:54,341
Now, in the intervening, meaning four years, it went up and down.

1596
01:18:55,221 --> 01:19:01,501
But it's basically hasn't, Bitcoin has not gained value on gold in the past four years.

1597
01:19:02,161 --> 01:19:05,141
That took me by surprise.

1598
01:19:05,941 --> 01:19:07,881
So the main thing I think-

1599
01:19:07,881 --> 01:19:08,601
In gold terms.

1600
01:19:08,841 --> 01:19:09,481
In gold terms.

1601
01:19:09,801 --> 01:19:10,041
Yeah.

1602
01:19:10,161 --> 01:19:11,381
BTC measured in gold.

1603
01:19:11,581 --> 01:19:11,821
Yeah.

1604
01:19:13,281 --> 01:19:20,041
It surprised me because the most, I'd say the most common-

1605
01:19:21,041 --> 01:19:30,381
uh, elevator pitch or anchor to convince people like, oh, what is Bitcoin's TAM or market value

1606
01:19:30,381 --> 01:19:36,781
is, is gold. Cause it gold is kind of indisputable in terms of like, what is this market cap? It's

1607
01:19:36,781 --> 01:19:40,560
been around thousands of years. It's, I mean, there's a lot of people who don't believe in it

1608
01:19:40,560 --> 01:19:45,081
or don't like it as an investment vehicle, but you can't dispute that it's worth this much money

1609
01:19:45,081 --> 01:19:50,361
and it has a long, long history. It's just indisputable. Right. Um, so

1610
01:19:50,361 --> 01:19:59,441
So Bitcoiners have, the similarities between Bitcoin and gold are quite, there's a lot of overlap.

1611
01:19:59,981 --> 01:20:04,301
Bitcoin has almost every property that gold has.

1612
01:20:04,441 --> 01:20:05,961
It's only missing one or two.

1613
01:20:06,401 --> 01:20:09,041
It only has really one or two drawbacks to gold.

1614
01:20:10,421 --> 01:20:14,161
Primary one being just it's not windy in the same way, like gold's 5,000.

1615
01:20:14,161 --> 01:20:18,621
No, it needs the internet as one, and then it can have software bugs.

1616
01:20:18,881 --> 01:20:20,121
Like gold can't have software bugs.

1617
01:20:20,121 --> 01:20:22,381
So I think those are like the two inherent drawbacks.

1618
01:20:22,541 --> 01:20:22,861
It can't be,

1619
01:20:23,281 --> 01:20:25,901
but it has tons of advantages over,

1620
01:20:26,001 --> 01:20:26,481
over gold.

1621
01:20:26,541 --> 01:20:26,681
Right.

1622
01:20:26,761 --> 01:20:28,121
So Bitcoiners,

1623
01:20:28,761 --> 01:20:30,321
like that's pretty like,

1624
01:20:30,361 --> 01:20:32,401
once you see that it's hard to see and then you're like,

1625
01:20:32,461 --> 01:20:32,601
well,

1626
01:20:32,641 --> 01:20:35,560
obviously Bitcoin is going to eat gold lunch.

1627
01:20:35,560 --> 01:20:37,581
And that doesn't mean gold goes to zero.

1628
01:20:37,581 --> 01:20:38,101
Cause again,

1629
01:20:38,101 --> 01:20:41,201
it has these inherent advantages over Bitcoin.

1630
01:20:41,301 --> 01:20:43,001
So I think it'll always have value,

1631
01:20:43,001 --> 01:20:45,881
but the relative value being Bitcoin and gold,

1632
01:20:46,581 --> 01:20:46,781
you know,

1633
01:20:46,781 --> 01:20:49,681
we all expect Bitcoin to rise and probably just far surpass gold.

1634
01:20:49,681 --> 01:21:13,181
And then you can get, you know, you can compare it to real estate and bonds and all this other stuff to size the market. But because it's still much less than gold, I would have just expected over the past four years, and we're kind of in a bullish market, it's not like we're in the trough of a bad winter or something, that it wouldn't have been flat relative to gold. And it has.

1635
01:21:13,181 --> 01:21:23,481
So my advice to us and everyone else is we should talk about and look at the price of Bitcoin relative to gold as much as we do the US dollar.

1636
01:21:23,661 --> 01:21:23,841
I agree.

1637
01:21:23,941 --> 01:21:25,020
I think it's way healthier.

1638
01:21:25,101 --> 01:21:26,461
And I think that actually was your point.

1639
01:21:26,581 --> 01:21:28,321
Or Danny was making that point or whatever, right?

1640
01:21:28,381 --> 01:21:29,661
So I think we should.

1641
01:21:29,741 --> 01:21:40,281
So like we should develop the discipline to, you know, celebrate milestones relative to gold as much as we do US dollar.

1642
01:21:40,281 --> 01:21:55,161
And I think there's another piece of context to add there, which is, you know, Danny was making some crazy price predictions. And I have also made some, you know, I don't, whatever, care too much about the price, but made some predictions around price over the next whatever year that a lot of people are like, that sounds pretty wild.

1643
01:21:55,161 --> 01:22:11,981
And I think the key, you know, one of the key pieces of logic, at least for Danny, and maybe I just kind of got this a little bit intuitively is, you know, when you're pricing in dollars, the dollar, the whole reason we have Bitcoin in the first place is I always think about Bitcoin as sort of like the metric unit or value.

1644
01:22:11,981 --> 01:22:15,441
And I think one day that'll be measured in joules once we're fully monetized.

1645
01:22:15,641 --> 01:22:19,941
But the point is, like, if I told you, like, hey, like, how tall are you today?

1646
01:22:20,361 --> 01:22:23,121
You know, I go from being, well, hey, guys, I'm actually 6'5 now.

1647
01:22:23,201 --> 01:22:23,761
I'm like, what?

1648
01:22:23,881 --> 01:22:25,041
When did you turn 6'5"?

1649
01:22:25,041 --> 01:22:27,201
It's like, oh, and I changed the definition of an inch.

1650
01:22:28,461 --> 01:22:29,501
It's like meaningless, right?

1651
01:22:29,501 --> 01:22:31,781
If I'm telling you, like, hey, guys, you know, it's $120,000.

1652
01:22:32,121 --> 01:22:32,821
It's like, cool.

1653
01:22:32,981 --> 01:22:37,520
But like, what is the purchasing power of a dollar today versus in 2020 if we printed,

1654
01:22:37,801 --> 01:22:40,201
you know, 50% more dollars or 25% more dollars?

1655
01:22:40,201 --> 01:22:44,321
and I've seen, you know, reports you need to earn 25% more to be competitive.

1656
01:22:44,321 --> 01:22:46,921
What if I told you there are 2.1 quadrillion Bitcoin?

1657
01:22:49,161 --> 01:22:49,981
Yeah, fair enough.

1658
01:22:50,341 --> 01:22:53,421
So anyways, but the point is gold, obviously, even though it's not perfect

1659
01:22:53,421 --> 01:22:57,641
and there is some, you know, whatever, 1, 2, 3% increase in supply every year,

1660
01:22:57,721 --> 01:22:58,861
it's much better than the dollar.

1661
01:22:59,241 --> 01:23:01,701
And so it's much more interesting to measure that.

1662
01:23:01,781 --> 01:23:06,501
And Danny's point was the bull market and all-time high actually just happened last week.

1663
01:23:07,741 --> 01:23:08,560
I'll read the tweet.

1664
01:23:08,560 --> 01:23:15,741
So the tweet from Danny says, looking at Bitcoin priced in gold, we've only just reached the previous cycles high.

1665
01:23:15,881 --> 01:23:16,101
Correct.

1666
01:23:16,401 --> 01:23:27,681
A historically proper cycle move up could put us at a ratio of 137, which at current gold prices would be $479,765 by the end of the year.

1667
01:23:28,501 --> 01:23:28,661
Yeah.

1668
01:23:29,441 --> 01:23:36,041
So another mental exercise I did after seeing that data and thinking about it more.

1669
01:23:36,041 --> 01:23:43,721
like given that the price of bitcoin relative to gold today is basically the same as it was four

1670
01:23:43,721 --> 01:23:50,841
years ago if we knew that then or gold has been a better investment the past four years

1671
01:23:50,841 --> 01:23:55,581
that's the assertion i make because like obviously it performed the same

1672
01:23:55,581 --> 01:24:02,701
and is less risky because that's thousands of years of history um obviously anyone investing

1673
01:24:02,701 --> 01:24:04,020
in Bitcoin relative to gold today

1674
01:24:04,020 --> 01:24:05,501
expects it to outperform

1675
01:24:05,501 --> 01:24:06,661
because that has way more risks.

1676
01:24:07,241 --> 01:24:08,501
It has a quantum computing risk.

1677
01:24:08,601 --> 01:24:10,560
Does gold have quantum computing risks?

1678
01:24:10,801 --> 01:24:10,981
No.

1679
01:24:11,361 --> 01:24:13,601
So Bitcoin still has a number of risks.

1680
01:24:13,841 --> 01:24:17,481
Obviously, every year it gets de-risked,

1681
01:24:17,761 --> 01:24:20,001
but there's still a number of risks with Bitcoin.

1682
01:24:20,461 --> 01:24:21,241
Gold doesn't have them.

1683
01:24:21,481 --> 01:24:24,001
So if we knew right now

1684
01:24:24,001 --> 01:24:26,441
that over the next like eight years,

1685
01:24:27,201 --> 01:24:29,761
Bitcoin's going to a million dollars

1686
01:24:29,761 --> 01:24:32,101
and gold is going to $30,000,

1687
01:24:32,701 --> 01:24:40,581
is like a 10x the both 10xing roughly that if we knew that for a fact over the next

1688
01:24:40,581 --> 01:24:45,980
eight years 10 years whatever which would you invest in obviously gold because that has less

1689
01:24:45,980 --> 01:24:53,261
got a regular peter shift here i mean like guys hold on like i did i mean if we knew that's the

1690
01:24:53,261 --> 01:24:59,761
performance surprise performance why would you not invest in gold what does it matter right yeah

1691
01:24:59,761 --> 01:25:03,060
But anyway, that's why, I mean, I'm not predicting that's what's going to happen.

1692
01:25:03,121 --> 01:25:06,601
I'm saying if we knew that was the difference, obviously gold's a better investment.

1693
01:25:07,881 --> 01:25:14,201
So my main learning is that we need to monitor that metric way more often.

1694
01:25:14,781 --> 01:25:25,321
And that's at least as healthy of metric to look at as the dollar, if not a better metric to look at as a health metric for the adoption of Bitcoin.

1695
01:25:25,501 --> 01:25:28,581
So there is one really important piece of color.

1696
01:25:28,581 --> 01:25:42,841
I don't have the data in front of me and I haven't done thorough analysis, but I seem to recall this guy, Charles Capriol, puts out some really nice charts, including the Bitcoin energy value of money, which is what I chart pretty closely, which is basically the cost of Bitcoin measured in joules.

1697
01:25:43,601 --> 01:25:47,541
And I think I remember reading this on one of his charts.

1698
01:25:47,661 --> 01:25:51,781
It basically, his takeaway is that gold pops before Bitcoin does always.

1699
01:25:52,020 --> 01:25:53,581
I don't know if that's true and I'd have to go back and check that.

1700
01:25:53,641 --> 01:25:55,581
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that's what I remember of this.

1701
01:25:55,921 --> 01:25:56,480
That's not the case?

1702
01:25:56,881 --> 01:25:58,321
I definitely don't think it's the case.

1703
01:25:58,321 --> 01:26:00,520
Because they're quite uncorrelated, actually.

1704
01:26:00,701 --> 01:26:02,261
So, well, at least in this market,

1705
01:26:02,341 --> 01:26:03,661
what he was claiming is that, you know,

1706
01:26:03,821 --> 01:26:05,281
give it whatever, three to six months

1707
01:26:05,281 --> 01:26:06,361
after gold starts popping,

1708
01:26:06,801 --> 01:26:07,741
Bitcoin's going to start ripping.

1709
01:26:08,841 --> 01:26:11,861
And it seems interesting to me that if that's the case

1710
01:26:11,861 --> 01:26:13,741
and we're just starting to rip

1711
01:26:13,741 --> 01:26:15,601
and we just touched all-time high

1712
01:26:15,601 --> 01:26:17,721
and this whole thing is extremely reflexive,

1713
01:26:18,060 --> 01:26:19,841
that the bull market literally hasn't started.

1714
01:26:20,241 --> 01:26:22,501
And so that all of the crazy FOMO and reflexivity,

1715
01:26:22,781 --> 01:26:23,961
like basically the argument is like

1716
01:26:23,961 --> 01:26:25,241
things are going to be more or less the same

1717
01:26:25,241 --> 01:26:26,201
as it was every other cycle,

1718
01:26:26,281 --> 01:26:28,101
maybe a little bit dampened as it does every cycle,

1719
01:26:28,101 --> 01:26:37,281
But like, it's just the size is bigger and people are like, oh, but that's impossible. How do we get the kind of capital influence to get to half a million dollars a coin? And the answer is, well, from institutions and countries.

1720
01:26:37,281 --> 01:27:01,221
So I agree overall with the point that we should be using gold as a better metric or kind of better yardstick to try to understand truth here than US dollar. So overall, I'm on board with that idea. I think the one thing I would say that is a risk to gold is the existence of Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is so much better in so many ways.

1721
01:27:01,221 --> 01:27:06,861
not to suggest that bitcoin has to go to zero but it but you know i think sorry not the bitcoin

1722
01:27:06,861 --> 01:27:13,060
not that gold has to go to zero but just as like people is people who are born today never knew a

1723
01:27:13,060 --> 01:27:17,601
world without bitcoin it's just a thing just like we've never known a world without gold and i think

1724
01:27:17,601 --> 01:27:22,601
you know people will update their expectations around how you know they want internet native

1725
01:27:22,601 --> 01:27:28,361
tools instead of the offline stuff and so i think there is some risk to gold because

1726
01:27:28,361 --> 01:27:36,441
because bitcoin is a better version in most along most kind of uh assessments doesn't mean it's

1727
01:27:36,441 --> 01:27:41,741
going you know it doesn't mean one wins the other loses it could both you know they could both grow

1728
01:27:41,741 --> 01:27:45,701
or might one might grow and the other might shrink a bit but i just i would say that there is a risk

1729
01:27:45,701 --> 01:27:51,421
to gold that we should be cognizant of which is the bitcoin now exists and it's a credible competitor

1730
01:27:51,421 --> 01:27:56,501
that's why i expect bitcoin to outperform gold over time yeah so let's keep looking at that metric i

1731
01:27:56,501 --> 01:27:57,661
I mean, the reality is,

1732
01:27:57,861 --> 01:27:59,461
I mean, the reason why I don't think

1733
01:27:59,461 --> 01:28:01,301
there's that gold pops for Bitcoin

1734
01:28:01,301 --> 01:28:05,461
is because I have the gold price chart in my head

1735
01:28:05,461 --> 01:28:06,901
pretty well from like 2010 on.

1736
01:28:07,101 --> 01:28:11,801
And like from 2010 until 2021 or so,

1737
01:28:11,941 --> 01:28:13,001
it's pretty flat.

1738
01:28:13,861 --> 01:28:19,441
Something like 16, 17, 1800 per ounce, maybe.

1739
01:28:20,421 --> 01:28:22,261
Flirting with 2000 a little bit,

1740
01:28:22,401 --> 01:28:23,381
flirting with 1500 a little bit,

1741
01:28:23,401 --> 01:28:26,181
but pretty tight range for over a decade.

1742
01:28:26,181 --> 01:28:28,441
and then a big doubling.

1743
01:28:29,441 --> 01:28:31,041
So, whereas obviously

1744
01:28:31,041 --> 01:28:32,020
Bitcoin has had

1745
01:28:32,020 --> 01:28:33,980
multiple cycles

1746
01:28:33,980 --> 01:28:35,341
and an incredible appreciation

1747
01:28:35,341 --> 01:28:36,401
over that entire time.

1748
01:28:36,781 --> 01:28:37,341
And even if you look

1749
01:28:37,341 --> 01:28:38,601
prior to 2010,

1750
01:28:39,261 --> 01:28:39,941
there's just like,

1751
01:28:40,501 --> 01:28:43,621
there's fewer pops in gold

1752
01:28:43,621 --> 01:28:45,741
than there is in Bitcoin.

1753
01:28:45,741 --> 01:28:46,261
Yeah, fair enough.

1754
01:28:46,301 --> 01:28:47,881
But they're big movements.

1755
01:28:48,601 --> 01:28:50,601
And then it tends to hold them,

1756
01:28:50,841 --> 01:28:53,241
but then it kind of feels,

1757
01:28:53,701 --> 01:28:54,821
or it's like moves sideways

1758
01:28:54,821 --> 01:28:55,781
for like a decade.

1759
01:28:56,181 --> 01:28:59,141
so probably moving forward

1760
01:28:59,141 --> 01:28:59,881
we'll see

1761
01:28:59,881 --> 01:29:02,861
the 10x appreciation

1762
01:29:02,861 --> 01:29:04,480
in Bitcoin over whatever

1763
01:29:04,480 --> 01:29:06,181
something like 8 years 10 years

1764
01:29:06,181 --> 01:29:08,401
and we won't see 10x in gold

1765
01:29:08,401 --> 01:29:10,761
it might be

1766
01:29:10,761 --> 01:29:12,761
flat the next 10 years

1767
01:29:12,761 --> 01:29:15,060
or maybe it has one more

1768
01:29:15,060 --> 01:29:16,601
pop the next 10 years but that

1769
01:29:16,601 --> 01:29:17,441
doubles

1770
01:29:17,441 --> 01:29:20,501
so like in 10 years Bitcoin's a million

1771
01:29:20,501 --> 01:29:22,441
gold is 6 or 7 thousand

1772
01:29:22,441 --> 01:29:24,361
and that would

1773
01:29:24,361 --> 01:29:31,261
kind of line up with most feels intuition i think about the uh risk reward of each investment

1774
01:29:31,261 --> 01:29:36,601
but let's look at that metric and see how it plays out let's keep watching cool someone should make

1775
01:29:36,601 --> 01:29:39,721
it really nice uh danny if you're listening to this i know you're you're trying to vibe good a

1776
01:29:39,721 --> 01:29:45,241
lot more be nice to have just like a simple like btc and goal.com or something like just easy chart

1777
01:29:45,241 --> 01:29:52,661
i like it it can speak uh for every like movement i mean he's and he vibe coded the

1778
01:29:52,661 --> 01:29:54,480
according to US dollar

1779
01:29:54,480 --> 01:29:56,201
and he could even have a waifu

1780
01:29:56,201 --> 01:29:57,241
it's the bitcoin speaker

1781
01:29:57,241 --> 01:30:02,761
shall we then

1782
01:30:02,761 --> 01:30:03,961
I think we shall