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All right. Welcome to another edition of the Presidio Bitcoin Jam, PBJ.

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Hey, guys.

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What's up?

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How are you doing?

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Good.

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Two of us came with a theme and one of us did not.

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My theme is to be the party pooper.

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It's the same as Halloween.

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The same as Halloween.

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We were holding it down with that holiday spirit.

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I don't know.

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Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you guys.

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That's right.

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And to everyone listening.

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And DK was teasing me, but, you know, just because I got a little snoopy.

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His little snoopy.

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Yeah, it's really cute.

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It's cute, but it's kind of too small for me to agree that it's festive.

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Well, I got to give a shout out to Angela.

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She gave me this as an early Christmas present this morning.

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I got to represent the Christmas sweater.

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But DK was joking.

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It's on my nip.

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So that's a shout out to Nostra right there.

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We're going to be talking about it.

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It's not Nipo 5, but it's Nipo Max.

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Max is always looking for his Nostra angle.

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There it is.

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In Max's mind, there's always a segue to Nostra.

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Still bullish, baby.

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I'm still bullish.

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Same, same.

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For me, I'm wearing my Christmas Relays hat, a race that DK and I have done twice together.

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I think I've done it three times.

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I cheated on DK the last time and ran with three other guys.

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He does that a lot, though.

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Didn't you have your biggest fan of the year on Strava is not me.

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And workout partner.

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Which is Strava.

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Do you know what Strava is?

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Yes.

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Sorry, this is sports talking.

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You don't get to be involved.

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but um

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with my kind of Strava

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um

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they have a year

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end of year report

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it's basically Spotify wrapped

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of your like

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workouts

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yeah

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but it's much better than it sounds

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but it changes every year

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it's really weird

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well no

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so this year

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it showed

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who my bestie is

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so like who gave the most likes

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to my workouts

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he got hope

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no

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he was not

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he was even on the top

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he was top three

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okay well that's

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alright thank god

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uh

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it's a quiz format right

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uh

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It was a quiz format.

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It asks you, who do you think?

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Oh, yeah, it was a quiz format.

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A dad from one of the Marin dads was number one.

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That's kind of cool.

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And then Nisha and DK were top three.

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But then there's a, who are your top workout partners?

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Who do you actually work out with?

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Because they start with track set as well.

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Definitely Lifetime is DK.

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That'll be pretty much impossible to surpass.

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but not this year

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Nathan was number one

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but DK was in the top three there too

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I don't even know anything

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I'll use another Marin

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I've got my own

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I got another

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the Marin dad mafia

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I like it

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well I have an app called

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what's the app you always drive

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mine's called Sauna

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and it's tracked to my top Saunas of the year

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are you being serious?

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but someone should build that for Nostra

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it turns out it did Sauna

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You can vibe code it.

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You should vibe code it.

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We're always designing each other work.

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I know, exactly.

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Let's talk about vibe coding a little bit.

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I know we talk about Matt Bliss in the show quite a bit

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because he's our favorite vibe coder.

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And usually he's online.

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I don't know if he's here today.

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Yeah, maybe he's...

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I'll chime in.

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No one's chimed in yet.

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Yeah, I do.

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Everyone's away for the holidays.

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Exactly, come on.

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The last three, four episodes,

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we've had incredible live audience engagement.

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So we appreciate that.

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But yeah, Vibe Coding.

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So our friend Matt,

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he has Vibe Coded up a new app

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that DK and I have had the pleasure to test.

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How am I left out, Matt?

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He is prolific.

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I want to see this app.

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We're not going to share the URL

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because it's not ready for...

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Not ready for prime time.

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Not ready for prime time, but it's...

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Too many naps.

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It's pretty amazing.

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Matt, you got to share with me too, homie.

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It's called...

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No.

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I can't even call it.

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Because you don't give away the URL, right?

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Yeah.

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I tried to ask AI if it could deduce the URL,

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and it couldn't figure that out.

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But anyway.

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We've yet to do it.

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We'll show the concept.

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All right.

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So Bitcoin has the notion of time locks.

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I think most people in Bitcoin generally know that.

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But there's never really been that good of products built on it.

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I mean, protocols like Lightning use,

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I mean, it's a fundamental part of Lightning use time locks

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and ARK, et cetera, and Spark,

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all these different technologies use time locks.

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And we talked about last week,

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it'd be cool if you had a product

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that was an application level time lock

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where you could just be like,

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I want this lock for 10 years no matter what.

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Well, now you've got that.

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Matt vibe-coded it.

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And it's a pretty slick UX workflow.

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So let's walk through it.

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So let's say I want to give a gift to DK.

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Yeah.

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Or I'll give it to Max.

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I'll give Max a gift, but I'm going to shift back to DK because you ran our show through AI and it tagged me as like the, what the, you're the builder, the builder, the allocator.

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And he's the trader.

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He's the trader.

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He's desperately looking.

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AI thinks he's a crypto trader.

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Yeah.

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And it also called a whoopee for some reason.

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So, so good.

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So I raised that because I'm worried that DK, if I gift him Bitcoin, he's just going to trade it.

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Trade it.

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Yeah.

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He's in a dump it.

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He's worried about quantum.

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he's going to dump it.

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So I want to give him this gift.

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He's got some Solana options or something.

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I don't know.

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And lock it up.

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Yeah.

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Right.

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So with this new tool that Matt,

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I can do that.

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So through a very simple interface,

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I can,

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it basically sent,

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he gets sent an email

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and then he receives this email saying that like Steve created this

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for you.

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And if you want to claim it,

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like click here

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and then claiming it

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reveals his private key

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like the seed words

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which are

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where's the private key before?

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they're generated client side

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on this computer

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in the browser

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so I mean we can nitpick

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security and privacy can be improved

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but like it's a very good

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like first attempt

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I mean certainly this app

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by by coding it

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demonstrates what this product

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could look like

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feel like

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and if someone

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thinks there's a real business or product there,

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then it could be further developed.

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But anyway.

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And it's meant to be, by the way,

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that the receiver is kind of a noob, right?

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So the receiver doesn't have an existing wallet,

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may not have any Bitcoin,

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doesn't know how to manage private keys,

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doesn't know about seed phrases.

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So this is like a gifting app too.

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Yeah, I mean, it's an alternative

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to the gift cards we've talked about.

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So DK receives this email.

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He claims it by revealing the seed phrase

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and he has to secure that,

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store it in a password manager

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or offline or whatever.

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I would not recommend a password manager

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for large amounts,

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but if it's a gift amount,

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maybe that's a reasonable way to do it.

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Yeah, it's a trader.

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Anyway, they can add cloud back, whatever.

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We can afford that later.

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But that's how he claimed it.

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And then that triggers a notification to me

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as the sender to fund it.

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Oh, that's a great idea.

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Because I can't fund it initially

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because the wallet hasn't been created.

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Super smart.

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And he needs to create it, not me.

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Otherwise, I'd have the private key.

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That's a great idea.

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Good work, Matt.

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Thank you, by the way.

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Matt says he's down to rug you guys, but not me.

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I feel slightly better now.

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So then I fund it.

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And also, when I configure the gift, I choose the duration, too.

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So, in fact, I think for the test, Matt gifted the two of us Bitcoin,

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which I think expires during the show.

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Maybe yours have already expired.

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You say expired, meaning the time lock expires

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and now we actually have it.

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Mine, I think, will be towards the end of the show

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and yours maybe earlier,

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but ours should be available.

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Would I have gotten an email about that?

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You should get an email during the show.

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So if we need to take a quick minute.

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I think at 1.26, I'll get my email.

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I don't remember exactly what time.

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One day is obviously just a test.

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But in reality, you might choose a year

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or four years or what have you.

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Ten years.

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Or you could be like a baby, like 18 years, like a bond.

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Yep.

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But it's like this.

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That's, I think, a good business idea.

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Yeah.

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It's kind of based on that.

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Yeah, Haley mentioned that a few months ago.

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We talked about it briefly on the show, so it could be that.

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And this is real.

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It's main net.

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I checked on the blockchain, the transaction.

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It's really there.

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It really has a time lock.

279
00:08:39,780 --> 00:08:40,200
It's awesome.

280
00:08:40,460 --> 00:08:41,320
And it's all vibe-coded.

281
00:08:41,560 --> 00:08:42,900
No hand-coding at all, right?

282
00:08:42,900 --> 00:08:46,160
and then an idea I had to make

283
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:47,440
because if you choose like four years

284
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,500
if I gift someone this who's not a Bitcoiner

285
00:08:50,500 --> 00:08:53,160
they're going to forget about it

286
00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,640
they're going to like just probably forget about it

287
00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,840
so this product could like update them

288
00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:01,820
with like a newsletter like communication

289
00:09:01,820 --> 00:09:02,740
every once in a while

290
00:09:02,740 --> 00:09:04,120
not in an annoying way

291
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,560
but like if it's four years

292
00:09:05,560 --> 00:09:07,140
maybe once at least once a year

293
00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:08,360
maybe twice a year

294
00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:09,740
at most four times a year

295
00:09:09,740 --> 00:09:11,220
only when it's 10x

296
00:09:11,220 --> 00:09:12,480
but that's it

297
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:19,760
I mean, you know, that communication you could include like, hey, first of all, like, hey, remember, like, how nice Steve was to give you this gift.

298
00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:20,820
And you have this gift.

299
00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:21,400
He's a great guy.

300
00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:22,200
He's a great guy.

301
00:09:23,740 --> 00:09:28,440
But also price information and action and like maybe some top news.

302
00:09:29,140 --> 00:09:31,280
And then also just a reminder of like the timer.

303
00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:34,860
Like it's three more years until it's available or whatever.

304
00:09:35,020 --> 00:09:35,300
I love it.

305
00:09:35,300 --> 00:09:41,500
And then like security best practices, you know, and, you know, so do that periodically.

306
00:09:41,500 --> 00:09:44,940
and keeps people excited and engaged.

307
00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:46,460
I think it's super cool.

308
00:09:47,620 --> 00:09:48,220
That's a great idea.

309
00:09:48,540 --> 00:09:49,860
This could actually be like a business.

310
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:50,340
Yeah.

311
00:09:50,420 --> 00:09:50,980
It should be a business.

312
00:09:51,740 --> 00:09:53,500
It's a great demonstration of a primitive

313
00:09:53,500 --> 00:09:54,740
for like the Ging Dang

314
00:09:54,740 --> 00:09:57,140
or the Baby Bonds kind of thing, right?

315
00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:57,780
It's basically like,

316
00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,380
it's all of the basic infrastructure you need.

317
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:01,860
Now it works itself as a product.

318
00:10:02,060 --> 00:10:02,280
Right.

319
00:10:02,380 --> 00:10:03,220
But you could actually layer on

320
00:10:03,220 --> 00:10:04,340
all kinds of other product.

321
00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:04,920
And services.

322
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:05,880
Totally, yeah.

323
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:06,440
That's just like,

324
00:10:06,500 --> 00:10:07,980
I mean, it's almost like an exchange sort of.

325
00:10:08,060 --> 00:10:09,060
That says 2 p.m.

326
00:10:09,180 --> 00:10:11,340
I forgot the timer starts when he,

327
00:10:11,500 --> 00:10:16,680
when he funds it first no no not when he funds it when he first sends the email he sends he sent

328
00:10:16,680 --> 00:10:22,060
us the email at the same time ours expires at the same time oh okay now is this the core timing

329
00:10:22,060 --> 00:10:26,980
though matt because it's half an hour after the show so but anyway you'll update in the new year

330
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:31,520
um i mean it's incredible that matt you were able to vibe code this like that's gets me more bullish

331
00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,920
on vibe coding is that the kind of thing that like my understanding was like for anything like

332
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:40,120
dealing with private keys or whatever you still probably want to like a human like really artisanal

333
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,000
coding it still? I mean, is this the kind of thing

334
00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:44,140
to like, do you feel that safe?

335
00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:46,160
No,

336
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:47,980
not really. But I mean, Matt's talking about like,

337
00:10:48,020 --> 00:10:50,080
what does he want to do with it? It's a demo. My understanding is

338
00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:51,540
at most, well, certainly a demo.

339
00:10:52,260 --> 00:10:54,040
He may launch

340
00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,100
it, but like have, he already has

341
00:10:56,100 --> 00:10:57,840
a, you can only fund it like

342
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,180
2,500 Bitcoin. And by that,

343
00:11:00,300 --> 00:11:01,500
I mean, sats, right? So

344
00:11:01,500 --> 00:11:03,980
almost dust level on

345
00:11:03,980 --> 00:11:04,620
chain.

346
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:07,880
So whatever, even if this were a

347
00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:09,920
full-blown product,

348
00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,760
business, you'd probably want to

349
00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,020
limit it and put some constraints

350
00:11:14,020 --> 00:11:16,060
on it. But you also want minimums

351
00:11:16,060 --> 00:11:17,660
too, right? Because you don't want dust level

352
00:11:17,660 --> 00:11:19,940
Bitcoin. So probably

353
00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:21,920
I thought the sweet spot for a product like this

354
00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,320
might be $1,000 to $10,000

355
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:25,980
gifts, like

356
00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:27,860
that range. Like enough to be

357
00:11:27,860 --> 00:11:29,660
meaningful, enough to avoid dust level

358
00:11:29,660 --> 00:11:32,060
concerns, but not so much

359
00:11:32,060 --> 00:11:34,000
that security has to be like

360
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,660
super epic.

361
00:11:35,660 --> 00:11:37,800
Maybe you can only do really small amounts if

362
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,060
it's a really long time lock.

363
00:11:39,060 --> 00:11:41,260
yeah

364
00:11:41,260 --> 00:11:41,780
yeah

365
00:11:41,780 --> 00:11:42,960
oh right

366
00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:44,180
like you can do a thousand dollars

367
00:11:44,180 --> 00:11:46,520
it could be a function of time

368
00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:47,640
and then

369
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:48,500
but even

370
00:11:48,500 --> 00:11:50,300
if someone actually productized this

371
00:11:50,300 --> 00:11:51,100
there's definitely

372
00:11:51,100 --> 00:11:52,480
things to do for security

373
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:53,000
and privacy

374
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,220
to improve it

375
00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:55,900
if someone does productize this

376
00:11:55,900 --> 00:11:56,500
hit us up

377
00:11:56,500 --> 00:11:57,120
like I think this is

378
00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:58,700
a phenomenal business idea

379
00:11:58,700 --> 00:11:59,040
yeah

380
00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:00,020
and River too

381
00:12:00,020 --> 00:12:00,760
like you should just

382
00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:02,020
make your gifting flow

383
00:12:02,020 --> 00:12:02,600
better with this

384
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:03,480
I think there's also

385
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:04,360
a lot of

386
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:04,820
like

387
00:12:04,820 --> 00:12:05,820
teachable

388
00:12:05,820 --> 00:12:07,120
kind of education moments

389
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:07,980
that this surfaces

390
00:12:07,980 --> 00:12:08,980
as I was going

391
00:12:08,980 --> 00:12:15,040
through it, I found myself kind of stuck in a few things with, you know, putting my hat on of like,

392
00:12:15,100 --> 00:12:20,120
hey, if I'm like noob, just getting into this, how do I understand what's going on here? There's a

393
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:25,300
bunch of like, like, what is a, these 12 words, what am I doing with them? Okay, where do I save

394
00:12:25,300 --> 00:12:29,460
them? Do I save it in a one password or somewhere else? I write it down, right? It's just not natural.

395
00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:34,120
And then I think a noob would assume that, oh, well, I got an email from this guy. I'm sure that

396
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:38,960
if, if everything goes wrong, I'll just write, write to him and get my Bitcoin restored. And it's not

397
00:12:38,980 --> 00:12:40,980
that way. That's not how Bitcoin works. That's not how the service

398
00:12:40,980 --> 00:12:43,160
works, right? He's not building a custodial

399
00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:44,640
thing where he can help you recover it.

400
00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,820
So I think there's a lot of moments to educate

401
00:12:46,820 --> 00:12:48,660
a noob about

402
00:12:48,660 --> 00:12:50,880
how do private keys work?

403
00:12:51,060 --> 00:12:53,020
And hey, you own the Bitcoin. We never

404
00:12:53,020 --> 00:12:54,940
touch it. Make sure you hold

405
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:56,600
these and stuff like that

406
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,000
that introduce people to

407
00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:00,260
Bitcoin concepts.

408
00:13:00,260 --> 00:13:02,220
And then they could have, for example,

409
00:13:02,380 --> 00:13:04,280
partnerships with Square or something. And it's like,

410
00:13:04,340 --> 00:13:05,840
hey, I'm sure there's all kinds of

411
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,100
referral fee opportunities too.

412
00:13:08,100 --> 00:13:10,120
like, hey, you can also just go get a BitKey

413
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:11,200
and then do it with that.

414
00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:12,440
Yeah, I agree.

415
00:13:12,660 --> 00:13:14,200
So my understanding from Matt is that

416
00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,220
he would love to see someone take this and run.

417
00:13:17,460 --> 00:13:18,020
Yeah, me too.

418
00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,260
I mean, you asked about security and human coders and stuff.

419
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:24,940
Yeah, I think if you're going to really build this

420
00:13:24,940 --> 00:13:25,780
into a business,

421
00:13:25,780 --> 00:13:31,140
I think you can go to one more level of depth

422
00:13:31,140 --> 00:13:32,840
and product-wise vibe coding,

423
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:34,920
and then you absolutely would want

424
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,220
at least an audit of the code

425
00:13:37,220 --> 00:13:38,860
by an experienced Bitcoin programmer

426
00:13:38,860 --> 00:13:41,240
to make sure that it's secure.

427
00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,620
But yeah, so we'd love to see that.

428
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:45,980
Now, another...

429
00:13:45,980 --> 00:13:47,820
By the way, on that audit,

430
00:13:48,100 --> 00:13:50,340
not suggesting that it shouldn't be done by a human,

431
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,640
but I think even before you get a human involved,

432
00:13:53,220 --> 00:13:57,320
the first time you dispatch a bunch of commands to Replit

433
00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:58,540
and hope that it does something,

434
00:13:58,620 --> 00:13:59,640
you're kind of like probing around

435
00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,160
and trying to see if it kind of works

436
00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,580
and it's like prototype quality.

437
00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:04,960
I think that's like probably,

438
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,300
maybe that's the level that Matt has gotten it to

439
00:14:07,300 --> 00:14:09,220
at this point, but you could still take

440
00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:11,140
the underlying code and bring it outside

441
00:14:11,140 --> 00:14:12,600
into a different

442
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,260
element you have a direct

443
00:14:15,260 --> 00:14:17,120
relationship with that's not trying to build it

444
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:18,920
and just be like, here's the code for this thing.

445
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,100
Should I be concerned about how

446
00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:22,020
the private keys are generated?

447
00:14:24,020 --> 00:14:25,120
Matthew's already said he's about

448
00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,040
to quote, vibe hack Matt's project.

449
00:14:27,260 --> 00:14:29,160
So we don't even have to, this is the beauty

450
00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:29,580
of the internet.

451
00:14:30,180 --> 00:14:33,020
I think Matt did tell us that

452
00:14:33,020 --> 00:14:35,420
if anyone's interested to learn more about this project,

453
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,500
either reach out directly to Matt Bluz.

454
00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:39,920
I think that's his X handle.

455
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:40,920
Yeah, okay.

456
00:14:41,060 --> 00:14:42,260
And if you can't find him,

457
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,980
then contact one of us,

458
00:14:44,060 --> 00:14:45,040
and we'll put you in touch.

459
00:14:47,180 --> 00:14:51,720
I also want to talk about the broader Vibe Coding community

460
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:52,520
that he's thinking of.

461
00:14:52,660 --> 00:14:55,280
Anything else, though, on his specific project?

462
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,720
I think there's a lot of opportunities around this.

463
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,660
So I would focus on the fact

464
00:15:00,660 --> 00:15:02,900
that it's a demonstration

465
00:15:02,900 --> 00:15:04,360
of what can be done.

466
00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:06,780
But think about all of the different

467
00:15:06,780 --> 00:15:08,540
UIs that could be built around this.

468
00:15:08,820 --> 00:15:10,580
So like, you know, you want to do

469
00:15:10,580 --> 00:15:12,380
a gift for a newborn child

470
00:15:12,380 --> 00:15:14,560
that goes for 18 years

471
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,120
or whatever. It's a college type thing.

472
00:15:16,460 --> 00:15:18,480
I think that's a great, you know, Bitcoin

473
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,520
bond type of use case. There's a totally

474
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:22,520
different UI you could imagine, which

475
00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:24,480
is like, I've been imagining this idea of

476
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,700
like personalized, AI generated

477
00:15:26,700 --> 00:15:28,620
personalized greeting cards. So like

478
00:15:28,620 --> 00:15:30,500
on Steve's birthday, we could

479
00:15:30,660 --> 00:15:33,320
create a greeting card with our faces in it,

480
00:15:33,420 --> 00:15:34,940
doing something fun and silly together.

481
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,580
And I'd be like, happy birthday, Steve.

482
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,640
And it could come along with some Bitcoin, right?

483
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,780
So I think, in a sense, this is the foundational layer,

484
00:15:42,260 --> 00:15:43,320
but it's not just one product.

485
00:15:43,420 --> 00:15:44,980
It's almost like a foundation

486
00:15:44,980 --> 00:15:46,460
that could go in a lot of different directions.

487
00:15:46,500 --> 00:15:47,780
Well, and that's why I said it feels like

488
00:15:47,780 --> 00:15:49,260
the early days of an exchange.

489
00:15:49,460 --> 00:15:50,580
It's almost like an exchange.

490
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:51,780
Once you have an exchange,

491
00:15:51,860 --> 00:15:53,140
then you can build lots of products on top,

492
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,300
like Bitcoin, back lending, payment services, whatever.

493
00:15:55,300 --> 00:15:57,740
But you need first to get the relationship

494
00:15:57,740 --> 00:16:00,400
with the customer and someone that's acquiring

495
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,360
some Bitcoin. This is a great way, like a new

496
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:03,240
novel way to do that.

497
00:16:03,940 --> 00:16:05,180
Actually, two more points on this.

498
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,220
The last couple episodes we talked about

499
00:16:08,220 --> 00:16:09,920
the gift card experience

500
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:11,920
and I had

501
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,040
high hopes for it. It was a little

502
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,000
disappointing because of

503
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,220
the significant

504
00:16:18,220 --> 00:16:19,600
friction on onboarding.

505
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:22,060
This

506
00:16:22,060 --> 00:16:23,400
does not have that.

507
00:16:23,860 --> 00:16:25,720
Because there's no regulatory

508
00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,000
issues here. It's completely

509
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,880
self-custodial. There's no

510
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,940
licensed MSB, there's no regulatory requirements.

511
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,680
So it's a very slick onboarding UX, which I think is great.

512
00:16:38,380 --> 00:16:41,660
And secondly, we talked about business model of gift cards. Gift cards,

513
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,240
it's a tough business model because the middlemen have so much power

514
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:49,500
that they extract all the margins. Unless you go around them.

515
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,740
Well, and you purely did it. Exactly. So this product goes

516
00:16:53,740 --> 00:16:57,660
around them. So the margins are completely that service.

517
00:16:57,660 --> 00:17:00,820
Now you have to have a plan to acquire customers.

518
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,480
You're not at like Walgreens or a grocery store on a rack.

519
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:05,820
You don't get that distribution,

520
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:07,460
but you have to find new ways to distribute,

521
00:17:07,740 --> 00:17:09,300
but you capture all the more.

522
00:17:09,620 --> 00:17:11,160
Yeah, I mean, I was talking a little bit with Bob

523
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,640
and he was giving me just a bit of an overview

524
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:14,520
of the gift card landscape.

525
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:15,560
These are massive companies,

526
00:17:15,740 --> 00:17:17,180
like tens of billions of dollars valuation.

527
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:18,040
I didn't realize how big.

528
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:19,540
So there's something there.

529
00:17:19,940 --> 00:17:22,440
I also, another flow that I would love to see

530
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:23,780
that I think would be amazing.

531
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:25,300
And again, each of these flows,

532
00:17:25,300 --> 00:17:31,000
like there's like, like kind of like scaffolding or like both UI, but also potentially some like

533
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,240
legal stuff that needs like helping. Right. So one that I think would be super dope is for charity

534
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:40,880
or donations. So I remember a couple of years ago, I think it was Jack and Jay-Z funded one of these

535
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:45,780
initiatives. And I think they did one in Brooklyn and one in Africa. And they like gave them like

536
00:17:45,780 --> 00:17:50,940
a Bitcoin endowment they couldn't touch for a long time. Amazing. Those two, whatever institutions

537
00:17:50,940 --> 00:17:52,920
are going to be balling out in 10 years.

538
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:54,980
So imagine if anyone could do that.

539
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,020
So it's like, okay, you want to donate to EFF.

540
00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,560
And it's like, well, I can give EFF a little bit of money now.

541
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:00,620
They're probably going to waste it, like whatever.

542
00:18:01,940 --> 00:18:02,940
Because it's a nonprofit.

543
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:07,500
But if I give them whatever, like $1,000 today,

544
00:18:07,780 --> 00:18:09,360
and then you have the UI around that,

545
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,780
the deal's like, how do I get that in a tax-deductible way?

546
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,220
So it's something that's a no-brainer for me to do.

547
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:15,960
I lock it up for them, and in 10 years,

548
00:18:16,020 --> 00:18:17,240
all of a sudden, EFF is balling.

549
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:26,160
Yeah, that's a good, like a V2 of this could introduce the layer of like, I give a gift of $1,000 or maybe $10,000.

550
00:18:26,940 --> 00:18:31,060
And then it's in $10,000 tranches.

551
00:18:31,660 --> 00:18:35,620
And each, there's a time, you know, one year time, like a two year, three year, all the way to 10 years.

552
00:18:35,780 --> 00:18:35,960
Yeah.

553
00:18:36,300 --> 00:18:37,760
Is another model as well.

554
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:44,500
You can imagine giving this to your kids or, you know, like nephews or nieces, all kinds of ideas.

555
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:46,080
So.

556
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:46,820
It's cool.

557
00:18:46,820 --> 00:18:51,780
I think, suffice it to say, if someone wants to build this, and yeah, I think all three

558
00:18:51,780 --> 00:18:53,520
of us would be very interested in funding this.

559
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:54,360
I'm extremely interested.

560
00:18:54,940 --> 00:18:56,100
It's a really good idea.

561
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:57,680
I think it would be a great business.

562
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,900
It sounds like Matt may be leaving the Spiral team soon.

563
00:19:00,060 --> 00:19:00,460
I don't know.

564
00:19:00,620 --> 00:19:01,320
Except Matt.

565
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,020
We won't fund Matt because he has a full-time job.

566
00:19:06,980 --> 00:19:13,260
Anyhow, but then the bigger, so another idea Matt has, and I'm eager to be part of it and

567
00:19:13,260 --> 00:19:15,340
help build it is creating a

568
00:19:15,340 --> 00:19:17,200
vibe coding community. This is

569
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,400
not fully baked so I'm just like there's early

570
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:20,900
alpha on our show to share this idea

571
00:19:20,900 --> 00:19:23,500
get your guys like let's have a discussion

572
00:19:23,500 --> 00:19:25,420
about it here and then like if the audience

573
00:19:25,420 --> 00:19:27,160
has any ideas I'm sure Matt and

574
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,380
the rest of us would love to hear about it

575
00:19:29,380 --> 00:19:31,180
but you know anyone

576
00:19:31,180 --> 00:19:32,960
who's followed PBJ knows that

577
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,880
DK and Matt

578
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,200
like Miles Suter have done a lot of

579
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:38,380
vibe coding in 2025

580
00:19:38,380 --> 00:19:41,280
and it's

581
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:42,900
it's really fun to follow that journey.

582
00:19:43,100 --> 00:19:45,280
I've done a little bit and Max needs to.

583
00:19:46,060 --> 00:19:46,220
Hey,

584
00:19:46,260 --> 00:19:47,600
but I've been using AI a ton lately.

585
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:47,880
Yeah,

586
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:48,460
that's good.

587
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:50,500
So anyway,

588
00:19:51,660 --> 00:19:53,280
yeah,

589
00:19:53,340 --> 00:19:56,840
I think Matt's idea here is create,

590
00:19:57,180 --> 00:19:57,560
create a,

591
00:19:57,780 --> 00:20:01,540
start with a small community of people like DK and Matt.

592
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,120
And I want to participate as well.

593
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,640
And I was speaking with Dustin earlier from Presidio Bitcoin,

594
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:06,920
you know,

595
00:20:06,940 --> 00:20:09,560
he got second place in our hackathon and totally may,

596
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,220
I'm a big desk.

597
00:20:10,220 --> 00:20:14,600
And he's super excited about this community as well.

598
00:20:14,740 --> 00:20:19,260
But it would just be a community of people who vibe code, build apps together,

599
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:23,260
but also alpha testing, beta testing.

600
00:20:23,420 --> 00:20:23,800
I love it.

601
00:20:23,980 --> 00:20:26,660
Because even though I have not been building a lot,

602
00:20:26,660 --> 00:20:31,100
I'm definitely an avid tester of whatever DK and same with you, right?

603
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,140
What DK and Matt and others build.

604
00:20:33,820 --> 00:20:39,980
So this would be a group of everyone would be eager and excited to test

605
00:20:39,980 --> 00:20:42,140
and support others while also building their own stuff.

606
00:20:42,460 --> 00:20:42,620
I love it.

607
00:20:42,660 --> 00:20:44,300
You can imagine all kinds of idea generation.

608
00:20:45,740 --> 00:20:47,920
So yeah, what are your thoughts on it?

609
00:20:47,980 --> 00:20:51,120
Yeah, I mean, I love the idea of having a place that's curated.

610
00:20:51,300 --> 00:20:54,760
So we just trust Matt's curation bar is going to be that everybody there

611
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,520
has enough of the right context and motivation and ethos.

612
00:20:58,420 --> 00:21:03,180
And then I think the first users of such a thing

613
00:21:03,180 --> 00:21:07,780
should always be people who are also hacking their own

614
00:21:07,780 --> 00:21:09,880
and wanting to, you know, game recognize game

615
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:10,980
and see what you're doing,

616
00:21:11,060 --> 00:21:12,500
kind of show off a little bit of like,

617
00:21:12,820 --> 00:21:14,640
hey, I found a way to do this, check it out, right?

618
00:21:14,780 --> 00:21:16,740
I think that's almost like the healthiest

619
00:21:16,740 --> 00:21:19,940
kind of petri dish around which something new could grow

620
00:21:19,940 --> 00:21:21,100
versus, you know, just, you could,

621
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,060
you could always create something just like tweet it out,

622
00:21:23,140 --> 00:21:24,760
but that's a little diffuse versus

623
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,000
this is more concentrated, high signal

624
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,020
of other people who kind of get what you're doing

625
00:21:30,020 --> 00:21:31,300
and go on that journey with you.

626
00:21:31,380 --> 00:21:33,320
So I'm like very excited about that.

627
00:21:33,660 --> 00:21:37,080
Is he, where does this sort of,

628
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:52,160
I mean, he and I have chatted offline separately about this idea, but where do you think about the line of like, does it have to be Bitcoin focused Fibre coding or could it be things that may have a payment component that get discovered later?

629
00:21:52,940 --> 00:21:55,920
Like, how do you sort of think about what would be most productive there?

630
00:21:56,180 --> 00:22:02,000
I think if it has Bitcoin payment in it somewhere, I don't think, in fact, I think explicitly it shouldn't just be like, this is a Bitcoin app.

631
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,580
Like, that's never, that's not the thing.

632
00:22:03,580 --> 00:22:05,720
I think using somehow Bitcoin Rails

633
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,960
is amazing and that should be part of like payments

634
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:09,820
but like I would almost

635
00:22:09,820 --> 00:22:11,740
I mean not almost I would much rather

636
00:22:11,740 --> 00:22:13,860
see something that's like oh this is just a cool

637
00:22:13,860 --> 00:22:15,720
app and then later find out wait there's Bitcoin

638
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:17,880
yeah I haven't discussed that with him so I don't

639
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,700
know what his vision is but yeah my opinion

640
00:22:19,700 --> 00:22:21,220
is it should not be

641
00:22:21,220 --> 00:22:23,660
Bitcoin should not be required it definitely

642
00:22:23,660 --> 00:22:25,840
shouldn't I mean what Max just said it definitely

643
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,280
shouldn't be you have to build Bitcoin apps

644
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,720
and I don't even think Bitcoin payments has to be

645
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,160
required it's just like

646
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,400
build cool shit.

647
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:33,660
And if

648
00:22:33,660 --> 00:22:34,720
now

649
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:35,660
the

650
00:22:35,660 --> 00:22:37,360
people who are going to

651
00:22:37,360 --> 00:22:38,440
participate in this

652
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:39,040
at least initially

653
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:40,000
are going to be Bitcoiners

654
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:40,760
so we're going to

655
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,060
we're going to be thinking about

656
00:22:42,060 --> 00:22:42,900
how does Bitcoin

657
00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:43,840
make this app better.

658
00:22:44,540 --> 00:22:45,240
So I have no doubt

659
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:45,760
Bitcoin will be

660
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:46,560
weaved in

661
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:47,120
but I don't think

662
00:22:47,120 --> 00:22:48,180
it should be required.

663
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:49,420
I also see

664
00:22:49,420 --> 00:22:51,320
Yeah, I agree.

665
00:22:51,700 --> 00:22:52,580
Matt's just agreeing with us.

666
00:22:52,620 --> 00:22:53,780
Yeah, so Matt agrees.

667
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:54,200
Great.

668
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:55,760
I also see

669
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,380
I see Austin

670
00:22:57,380 --> 00:22:58,500
join the chat too

671
00:22:58,500 --> 00:22:59,440
and he

672
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:00,280
he also

673
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,380
participated in our hackathon.

674
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:04,300
I forget if you guys got third place.

675
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,700
You built whatever place you got. It was a

676
00:23:06,700 --> 00:23:08,060
compelling app and it was vibe-coded.

677
00:23:08,500 --> 00:23:09,620
I think you got third place.

678
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,060
This seems like a community that

679
00:23:12,060 --> 00:23:14,660
Austin would love as well.

680
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,540
One thing that I would say is also

681
00:23:16,540 --> 00:23:18,620
I would love to see also not only a bias

682
00:23:18,620 --> 00:23:20,440
towards Bitcoin, but really a bias towards

683
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,580
an Oster as well. I think, to me, a lot of

684
00:23:22,580 --> 00:23:24,600
the superpowers of these apps are going to be

685
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,380
with the portable identity that you own or

686
00:23:26,380 --> 00:23:28,340
use your own portable identity with the social graph.

687
00:23:28,340 --> 00:23:38,360
Like one thing I would love to see, maybe it's not in B0, but like, you know, and I requested this from Matt and his impressionista.ai or .fun, one of those.

688
00:23:38,620 --> 00:23:53,938
Anyways is that you know I would love for every project to itself have an NPUB which a Nostra identity such that you can easily publish that and just start collecting zaps getting notoriety Like having the platform itself be sort of Nostrify would be amazing Agreed

689
00:23:53,998 --> 00:23:55,818
And I think that just makes me

690
00:23:55,818 --> 00:23:56,858
have even more conviction

691
00:23:56,858 --> 00:23:58,938
that this shouldn't be messaged

692
00:23:58,938 --> 00:24:00,758
and positioned as a Bitcoin thing

693
00:24:00,758 --> 00:24:01,618
or a Nostra thing.

694
00:24:01,678 --> 00:24:01,778
Right.

695
00:24:01,938 --> 00:24:02,118
Yeah.

696
00:24:02,258 --> 00:24:04,058
Because we want to attract people

697
00:24:04,058 --> 00:24:06,278
who don't identify as Bitcoiners

698
00:24:06,278 --> 00:24:08,558
or Nostra ostriches or whatever, right?

699
00:24:08,858 --> 00:24:09,578
So, um,

700
00:24:09,738 --> 00:24:10,218
Nostrages.

701
00:24:10,538 --> 00:24:10,978
Nostrages.

702
00:24:10,978 --> 00:24:11,338
Nostrages.

703
00:24:11,618 --> 00:24:11,798
Sorry.

704
00:24:11,798 --> 00:24:16,458
I'm not really in that club yet.

705
00:24:16,978 --> 00:24:23,118
Anyway, we want like just a Silicon Valley type builder to join

706
00:24:23,118 --> 00:24:26,938
and then they'll see others using Nostra

707
00:24:26,938 --> 00:24:29,418
and what it enables uniquely and build stuff that,

708
00:24:29,538 --> 00:24:30,498
oh, I didn't realize that.

709
00:24:30,558 --> 00:24:31,118
And same with Bitcoin.

710
00:24:31,498 --> 00:24:32,038
Yeah, I think it's great.

711
00:24:32,098 --> 00:24:33,758
It's like you don't want to push people to be,

712
00:24:33,918 --> 00:24:35,058
hey, you got to use this technology.

713
00:24:35,138 --> 00:24:36,658
It's more like go build wherever you want.

714
00:24:36,738 --> 00:24:38,918
And oh, there's things that you can't do the old way,

715
00:24:38,938 --> 00:24:39,938
but you can do this new way.

716
00:24:39,938 --> 00:24:42,058
this is available in case you need it.

717
00:24:42,318 --> 00:24:44,478
And speaking with Dustin earlier this morning,

718
00:24:44,978 --> 00:24:46,078
he's excited about

719
00:24:46,078 --> 00:24:48,278
exactly what you said, Nostra

720
00:24:48,278 --> 00:24:49,598
within this community too.

721
00:24:49,818 --> 00:24:51,898
Yeah, amazing. And even better if we can, you know,

722
00:24:51,978 --> 00:24:53,718
because we have Builder and stuff, we can just like

723
00:24:53,718 --> 00:24:55,018
demo stuff live too.

724
00:24:55,518 --> 00:24:56,058
It's cool.

725
00:24:57,058 --> 00:24:59,838
Yeah, so if anyone has any more ideas,

726
00:24:59,838 --> 00:25:01,398
share with us or

727
00:25:01,398 --> 00:25:03,118
contact Matt. For sure.

728
00:25:03,298 --> 00:25:04,598
Hopefully we get that going in January.

729
00:25:05,318 --> 00:25:07,098
What's the status? It kind of is,

730
00:25:07,398 --> 00:25:09,798
it doesn't exist yet or it's coming together?

731
00:25:09,938 --> 00:25:16,038
Like practically, I'm thinking it should be a Discord community, but I don't know if Matt...

732
00:25:16,038 --> 00:25:22,678
I think Matt said some of this happens on the MDK Discord today, I think in like a smallish way.

733
00:25:24,278 --> 00:25:25,818
Oh, I haven't even joined the MDK Discord.

734
00:25:25,818 --> 00:25:27,598
I didn't know there was an MDK Discord.

735
00:25:27,738 --> 00:25:28,058
Me neither.

736
00:25:28,058 --> 00:25:29,378
Well, I have not.

737
00:25:29,558 --> 00:25:31,358
Matt has told me about it, so I don't know.

738
00:25:32,838 --> 00:25:33,058
I think...

739
00:25:33,938 --> 00:25:34,678
But yeah.

740
00:25:35,418 --> 00:25:36,478
You know what would be super cool?

741
00:25:36,478 --> 00:25:40,718
So the MDK Discord, maybe that's a natural place to start it because they're already doing this so much.

742
00:25:40,778 --> 00:25:43,258
I mean, you don't want to make it specific to one company, obviously.

743
00:25:43,718 --> 00:25:45,238
Yeah, it would be the MDK Discord.

744
00:25:45,598 --> 00:25:52,678
But it was bubbling up there, and I think he happens to engage there a little bit, but I think it's meant to be kind of a different thing.

745
00:25:52,758 --> 00:25:55,058
But if that's where it is, I mean, so he's saying he plans a Discord community.

746
00:25:55,138 --> 00:25:55,538
That's cool.

747
00:25:55,838 --> 00:25:58,158
I do think, though, it would be sweet over time.

748
00:25:58,158 --> 00:26:03,978
Maybe it starts in Discord because the tools are better, but I would love to see us also dogfood more of our awesome Bitcoin tools.

749
00:26:03,978 --> 00:26:09,018
like a stacker news, how dope would it be if you, I mean, yes, I mean, or even on Nostra,

750
00:26:09,078 --> 00:26:14,118
but like, again, I think there's so much power to this idea of eventually, you know, kind

751
00:26:14,118 --> 00:26:17,878
of like, what was the, you know, like a product ton or something like it, you just like feed

752
00:26:17,878 --> 00:26:19,758
stuff out and then just, you get zapped.

753
00:26:19,898 --> 00:26:23,078
And that's the, that's like the differentiator thing that people are just like, oh, sweet.

754
00:26:23,138 --> 00:26:26,718
Not only do I publish this thing and just like get some notoriety, but like, what?

755
00:26:26,838 --> 00:26:29,718
Like people are starting to win like real money on this thing too.

756
00:26:30,338 --> 00:26:34,318
Anyways, I would lobby for, Matt,

757
00:26:34,358 --> 00:26:36,258
if you haven't played with the Stackernese communities yet,

758
00:26:36,358 --> 00:26:37,138
they're sweet.

759
00:26:37,898 --> 00:26:40,078
And I don't know, Nostra, Stackernese, eventually.

760
00:26:40,978 --> 00:26:42,518
I think it's a good push.

761
00:26:42,858 --> 00:26:43,738
I'm not sure they're ready yet,

762
00:26:43,798 --> 00:26:46,318
but without pushing and someone doing it,

763
00:26:46,338 --> 00:26:47,338
then it won't happen either.

764
00:26:47,498 --> 00:26:50,238
I think there could be promising integrations there.

765
00:26:51,458 --> 00:26:52,438
But first and foremost,

766
00:26:52,438 --> 00:26:55,238
I think it should be a slick communication tool.

767
00:26:55,478 --> 00:26:55,638
I agree.

768
00:26:56,598 --> 00:26:58,478
And I hope, I mentioned this yesterday

769
00:26:58,478 --> 00:26:59,418
and I mentioned this to Matt,

770
00:26:59,718 --> 00:27:03,258
or sorry, last week in this forum and then also with Matt.

771
00:27:03,338 --> 00:27:07,798
But I really like Matt's kind of taste bar

772
00:27:07,798 --> 00:27:10,818
of how focused something could be and should be.

773
00:27:11,238 --> 00:27:13,318
And I feel like if he can imbue that a little bit

774
00:27:13,318 --> 00:27:14,738
on some of the early people,

775
00:27:14,838 --> 00:27:16,458
it doesn't have to be a big ambitious startup.

776
00:27:16,598 --> 00:27:17,578
It's almost better to not be.

777
00:27:17,658 --> 00:27:19,718
It's almost better to just be a fun hack

778
00:27:19,718 --> 00:27:22,558
and something that you like and you want to show off

779
00:27:22,558 --> 00:27:23,958
and other people kind of can appreciate.

780
00:27:23,958 --> 00:27:26,898
But you could think of it almost like it's just a hack.

781
00:27:27,138 --> 00:27:28,618
It doesn't have to be like a company.

782
00:27:28,618 --> 00:27:30,318
In a sense, it probably shouldn't be.

783
00:27:30,538 --> 00:27:31,278
That's almost, it's like,

784
00:27:31,558 --> 00:27:33,218
maybe not the right form for that kind of thing.

785
00:27:33,318 --> 00:27:34,758
And something else would be super sweet,

786
00:27:34,838 --> 00:27:35,458
and we kind of talked,

787
00:27:35,518 --> 00:27:36,738
maybe this is like an organic way

788
00:27:36,738 --> 00:27:39,498
it even grows into its own sort of product,

789
00:27:40,018 --> 00:27:41,618
is like, you can also do,

790
00:27:41,898 --> 00:27:43,518
you know, if you have this on like a stacker news community

791
00:27:43,518 --> 00:27:44,978
or sort of a nostrified app,

792
00:27:44,998 --> 00:27:45,898
you can do bounties too.

793
00:27:46,298 --> 00:27:47,238
Like imagine someone's like,

794
00:27:47,278 --> 00:27:48,118
hey, this is really cool.

795
00:27:48,238 --> 00:27:50,518
Like what I did, remember last year or in April,

796
00:27:50,898 --> 00:27:51,278
where I was like,

797
00:27:51,398 --> 00:27:53,578
and I still really want a mean generator,

798
00:27:53,718 --> 00:27:55,298
someone to do a really good mean generator.

799
00:27:55,798 --> 00:27:57,938
Matt, maybe you're our guy, you're our best one.

800
00:27:58,618 --> 00:28:02,378
of just like, I want a very simple UI

801
00:28:02,378 --> 00:28:05,958
where I can look at all the memes that are out there

802
00:28:05,958 --> 00:28:09,098
and I can be like, whatever, here's like, you know,

803
00:28:09,418 --> 00:28:10,918
DK looking at a girl, thank you.

804
00:28:11,738 --> 00:28:12,878
You're vibe coding it right now, go ahead.

805
00:28:13,038 --> 00:28:13,478
Am I really?

806
00:28:14,118 --> 00:28:14,998
I want an app.

807
00:28:15,078 --> 00:28:15,978
It can be that simple.

808
00:28:15,978 --> 00:28:19,038
I want an app where I can get the top, whatever,

809
00:28:19,438 --> 00:28:20,738
20 memes from the internet.

810
00:28:21,038 --> 00:28:22,898
I can make just a template.

811
00:28:23,578 --> 00:28:24,798
And once I make that template,

812
00:28:24,918 --> 00:28:26,538
it shares it as an impub to Nostra

813
00:28:26,538 --> 00:28:28,158
so I can start collecting sweet, sweet stats.

814
00:28:28,158 --> 00:28:30,258
that's about all that's required to

815
00:28:30,258 --> 00:28:32,238
vibe code it literally just like download the

816
00:28:32,238 --> 00:28:32,618
Replit app

817
00:28:32,618 --> 00:28:35,298
message received

818
00:28:35,298 --> 00:28:36,998
I gotta message this shit

819
00:28:36,998 --> 00:28:38,598
anyway if someone's listening

820
00:28:38,598 --> 00:28:41,998
I offered and paid 100,000 Satoshi Bounty

821
00:28:41,998 --> 00:28:43,998
I'll do it again and like imagine

822
00:28:43,998 --> 00:28:45,578
that like flow or cause like

823
00:28:45,578 --> 00:28:47,558
I'm not gonna like futz with this stuff

824
00:28:47,558 --> 00:28:49,678
I will to a minute like if someone

825
00:28:49,678 --> 00:28:51,918
that can take this from whatever

826
00:28:51,918 --> 00:28:53,778
like imagine people will pay

827
00:28:53,778 --> 00:28:55,918
bounties for cool shit I'll be the first one

828
00:28:55,918 --> 00:28:57,978
so I already did

829
00:28:57,978 --> 00:28:58,618
It's a lemon.

830
00:28:58,758 --> 00:29:00,098
That guy on Nostra, it's a lemon.

831
00:29:00,198 --> 00:29:00,978
I don't even know who he is.

832
00:29:01,138 --> 00:29:01,678
Is he a human?

833
00:29:01,778 --> 00:29:02,178
I don't know.

834
00:29:02,238 --> 00:29:02,838
I don't even care.

835
00:29:03,238 --> 00:29:05,238
He made a decent first round, but it's not good enough.

836
00:29:06,098 --> 00:29:13,738
Speaking of which, I was, I think, the number one funder of a Nostra billboard in South

837
00:29:13,738 --> 00:29:14,518
America or something.

838
00:29:14,838 --> 00:29:16,058
You ask me about this every so often.

839
00:29:16,378 --> 00:29:17,298
Did it actually occur?

840
00:29:17,838 --> 00:29:19,818
In our chat several months ago, I showed you.

841
00:29:19,938 --> 00:29:22,018
So I also put up, I put my money where my mouth was.

842
00:29:22,018 --> 00:29:23,658
We put in similar amounts.

843
00:29:24,338 --> 00:29:25,798
And yeah, it did.

844
00:29:26,038 --> 00:29:26,318
But like.

845
00:29:26,398 --> 00:29:27,338
And did you have a picture of it?

846
00:29:27,438 --> 00:29:27,778
You sent it?

847
00:29:27,978 --> 00:29:29,098
a picture of the billboard?

848
00:29:29,258 --> 00:29:31,618
I mean, I didn't have anything to do with the operations.

849
00:29:31,718 --> 00:29:32,898
I just thought it was a cool idea.

850
00:29:33,238 --> 00:29:36,038
Just like now, all I do is shit talk on television.

851
00:29:36,358 --> 00:29:37,638
I just want to see a picture.

852
00:29:38,098 --> 00:29:38,778
I showed it to you.

853
00:29:38,898 --> 00:29:40,098
Go back under a signal chart.

854
00:29:41,538 --> 00:29:42,698
You asked multiple times.

855
00:29:42,898 --> 00:29:43,598
You were the one.

856
00:29:44,478 --> 00:29:46,718
What are the impact metrics?

857
00:29:46,958 --> 00:29:47,458
Probably zero.

858
00:29:47,798 --> 00:29:48,218
All right.

859
00:29:48,538 --> 00:29:48,698
Yeah.

860
00:29:49,158 --> 00:29:49,818
Good attempt.

861
00:29:49,818 --> 00:29:51,018
It was, yeah.

862
00:29:51,798 --> 00:29:53,818
You try some things.

863
00:29:56,458 --> 00:29:56,858
Cool.

864
00:29:56,858 --> 00:29:58,898
Cool. Well, anything else on the

865
00:29:58,898 --> 00:30:00,058
bi-coding community you want to cover?

866
00:30:00,878 --> 00:30:03,718
I think we have to do.

867
00:30:04,278 --> 00:30:04,758
Predictions.

868
00:30:04,938 --> 00:30:06,838
Yeah, make an AI that just builds my bounty projects.

869
00:30:06,918 --> 00:30:07,318
That'd be cool.

870
00:30:08,178 --> 00:30:09,658
Austin, if that's you, bro.

871
00:30:09,678 --> 00:30:12,678
Any project you hear brainstormed on,

872
00:30:12,758 --> 00:30:14,298
PBJs should have a URL.

873
00:30:14,778 --> 00:30:16,778
I agree. Seriously, you could just

874
00:30:16,778 --> 00:30:18,518
feed all of our PBJs through

875
00:30:18,518 --> 00:30:20,638
an AI and be like, here's 20.

876
00:30:20,638 --> 00:30:21,918
What app should we make for Max?

877
00:30:23,238 --> 00:30:24,378
Alright, so it's the end of the year.

878
00:30:24,678 --> 00:30:26,658
People should know. So I think we decided we're not

879
00:30:26,658 --> 00:30:28,678
going to do PBJ the day after

880
00:30:28,678 --> 00:30:30,798
Christmas, but we will do

881
00:30:30,798 --> 00:30:32,878
the day after, like January

882
00:30:32,878 --> 00:30:34,838
2nd. Feliz Navidad to all

883
00:30:34,838 --> 00:30:36,758
who celebrate. So this will be the last episode

884
00:30:36,758 --> 00:30:37,738
of 2025.

885
00:30:38,278 --> 00:30:40,618
This episode's number 52.

886
00:30:41,258 --> 00:30:42,898
So very good job, guys.

887
00:30:43,038 --> 00:30:44,698
Yeah, we made it. Thanks for those sticking

888
00:30:44,698 --> 00:30:45,178
with us.

889
00:30:46,378 --> 00:30:48,758
And so yeah, let's review 2025

890
00:30:48,758 --> 00:30:50,778
predictions, which we made a year

891
00:30:50,778 --> 00:30:52,718
ago. We made them

892
00:30:52,718 --> 00:30:54,758
at the end of 2024, right? Or just the

893
00:30:54,758 --> 00:30:56,078
beginning of 2025? Yeah.

894
00:30:56,078 --> 00:30:59,778
And then if we have any new predictions.

895
00:31:00,078 --> 00:31:00,178
Yeah.

896
00:31:00,338 --> 00:31:01,838
And it's just a meta point on that.

897
00:31:01,958 --> 00:31:03,718
I will say, so I've been using,

898
00:31:03,838 --> 00:31:05,498
even though I don't really vibe code yet,

899
00:31:05,718 --> 00:31:06,258
maybe one day,

900
00:31:06,638 --> 00:31:08,498
I have been playing a lot with Gemini 3,

901
00:31:08,978 --> 00:31:10,138
the like super pro model.

902
00:31:10,338 --> 00:31:11,098
It's amazing.

903
00:31:11,858 --> 00:31:13,038
However, not as good as I was hoping.

904
00:31:13,218 --> 00:31:14,898
So for this show,

905
00:31:15,018 --> 00:31:16,258
we were discussing whether or not

906
00:31:16,258 --> 00:31:16,938
we're going to do predictions

907
00:31:16,938 --> 00:31:19,838
and Steve graciously offered for one of us

908
00:31:19,838 --> 00:31:20,778
to quote, do the homework

909
00:31:20,778 --> 00:31:22,258
of actually looking at the old predictions.

910
00:31:22,638 --> 00:31:23,338
So I did.

911
00:31:23,338 --> 00:31:25,378
I just fed it to my homie Gemini 3.

912
00:31:25,378 --> 00:31:25,878
So what did you do?

913
00:31:26,178 --> 00:31:28,858
Like a YouTube URL?

914
00:31:28,938 --> 00:31:29,078
Yeah.

915
00:31:29,318 --> 00:31:30,818
You fed the video to it.

916
00:31:30,818 --> 00:31:31,058
That's right.

917
00:31:31,118 --> 00:31:35,938
So you shared with us, I don't know, like a week or two ago, a video that was timestamped

918
00:31:35,938 --> 00:31:36,958
to where we were doing the predictions.

919
00:31:36,958 --> 00:31:38,818
And you were like, wow, we did really poorly.

920
00:31:39,218 --> 00:31:39,558
And I listened.

921
00:31:39,658 --> 00:31:40,238
I was like, yeah, we did.

922
00:31:40,578 --> 00:31:41,798
And then I fed that to Google.

923
00:31:42,238 --> 00:31:44,358
And I was just like, well, at first I fed the whole video.

924
00:31:44,458 --> 00:31:47,398
And interesting because it actually surfaced one more prediction that's not on the list

925
00:31:47,398 --> 00:31:47,878
you guys got.

926
00:31:47,938 --> 00:31:49,098
And I'll mention that because it's interesting.

927
00:31:49,458 --> 00:31:51,098
That came kind of earlier in the show.

928
00:31:51,438 --> 00:31:54,938
And then I was like, well, just keep it to the actual prediction section at this timestamp.

929
00:31:54,938 --> 00:31:56,378
And, you know, it fed them out.

930
00:31:56,458 --> 00:31:58,138
It took out for each of us to various predictions.

931
00:31:58,418 --> 00:32:01,178
Although I think it got wrong a couple of, like, who made which predictions.

932
00:32:01,258 --> 00:32:02,638
Because I listened to it again this morning myself.

933
00:32:02,998 --> 00:32:03,778
So not perfect.

934
00:32:03,878 --> 00:32:05,818
And the analysis was, like, poor.

935
00:32:06,858 --> 00:32:09,458
Yeah, mediocre on some, poor on others.

936
00:32:09,918 --> 00:32:14,038
So anyways, point being, it was, and I think that's kind of the danger with AI still.

937
00:32:14,138 --> 00:32:15,618
It's like, it's really good in certain things.

938
00:32:15,678 --> 00:32:17,798
So you're like, oh, like, it's actually helped me with a lot of stuff.

939
00:32:18,318 --> 00:32:18,658
Yeah, exactly.

940
00:32:18,778 --> 00:32:19,218
It's believable.

941
00:32:19,998 --> 00:32:22,058
And so then you're like, oh, like, I'll just roll this.

942
00:32:22,058 --> 00:32:26,418
one other quick, I guess, pre-pre-prediction before we get into Bitcoin stuff, one of my

943
00:32:26,418 --> 00:32:33,218
predictions in playing with all this AI is it's both good and bad, but this model to me,

944
00:32:33,238 --> 00:32:36,118
Gemini 3, definitely represents a major jump from everything I've used in the past. Even though

945
00:32:36,118 --> 00:32:39,778
it's not perfect and there's still mistakes and hallucinations, it's getting a lot better.

946
00:32:40,378 --> 00:32:44,898
But the danger in that is one thing I think AI is going to do, this is the first prediction,

947
00:32:45,438 --> 00:32:50,978
is it's going to, I think, put people more in their own kind of weird warped reality bubbles.

948
00:32:50,978 --> 00:32:56,678
so as an example in preparing for this show i you know been chatting with my homie google

949
00:32:56,678 --> 00:33:01,318
and we we came up with our own like kind of like list of possible predictions for this year

950
00:33:01,318 --> 00:33:04,738
i didn't have time to listen to it now one way that ai has changed my life i want to give a

951
00:33:04,738 --> 00:33:09,798
shout out to dk for this because i've been using even though here's another app another bounty uh

952
00:33:09,798 --> 00:33:15,098
app that i would like uh i've been using 11 reader to just feed articles in and listen to it like a

953
00:33:15,098 --> 00:33:18,638
podcast because i can't i don't know if i just like have developed adhd over the years but i can't

954
00:33:18,638 --> 00:33:22,298
like fucking sit at a computer and fuck with stuff i like to walk you know i'm gonna walk

955
00:33:22,298 --> 00:33:27,158
15 miles a day i'm a big walker and when i'm 15 miles a day yeah i've been going crazy that's

956
00:33:27,158 --> 00:33:33,778
is that for over what period a couple days yeah okay um i i did a week of 10 miles a day yeah and

957
00:33:33,778 --> 00:33:38,098
that was a lot changes your life but but the reason is because like now now that i have this

958
00:33:38,098 --> 00:33:42,958
new superpower like i can't i don't like like i feel like if i'm sitting inside as the days get

959
00:33:42,958 --> 00:33:47,858
shorter yeah i just like i feel just angry the light is gone i don't like it but if i'm walking

960
00:33:47,858 --> 00:33:49,458
and now I can queue up here

961
00:33:49,458 --> 00:33:50,198
the 10 articles

962
00:33:50,198 --> 00:33:51,298
or things I need to think about

963
00:33:51,298 --> 00:33:52,138
or I'm like learning.

964
00:33:52,458 --> 00:33:53,938
Like I feel like my learning rate

965
00:33:53,938 --> 00:33:54,578
is vertical

966
00:33:54,578 --> 00:33:56,298
with this like 15 miles.

967
00:33:56,438 --> 00:33:57,278
It's not exactly 15.

968
00:33:57,298 --> 00:33:57,998
It was like 14 and a half.

969
00:33:58,078 --> 00:33:58,358
But still,

970
00:33:58,618 --> 00:34:00,098
who's counting besides me?

971
00:34:00,198 --> 00:34:01,158
What's your annual daily?

972
00:34:02,038 --> 00:34:02,318
I don't know.

973
00:34:02,378 --> 00:34:02,538
Let's see.

974
00:34:03,718 --> 00:34:04,498
Annual daily?

975
00:34:04,938 --> 00:34:06,178
I don't always have my phone.

976
00:34:06,278 --> 00:34:07,978
So this is not perfect.

977
00:34:09,078 --> 00:34:09,658
Let's see.

978
00:34:10,178 --> 00:34:11,878
My December is always really low.

979
00:34:12,298 --> 00:34:13,098
So I'm really working

980
00:34:13,098 --> 00:34:14,258
to try to keep the December up.

981
00:34:14,298 --> 00:34:15,439
But with this atmospheric river,

982
00:34:15,518 --> 00:34:15,959
I'm worried.

983
00:34:16,238 --> 00:34:16,919
Bro, I'm about to

984
00:34:16,919 --> 00:34:19,078
about to just absolutely obliterate your December.

985
00:34:19,178 --> 00:34:20,038
Do you even want to know?

986
00:34:20,178 --> 00:34:20,998
Oh, yeah, I do want to know.

987
00:34:21,038 --> 00:34:22,338
You want to know for the year or you want to know for December?

988
00:34:22,478 --> 00:34:23,058
I want to know for the year.

989
00:34:23,758 --> 00:34:24,318
For the year?

990
00:34:24,478 --> 00:34:24,638
Yeah.

991
00:34:24,998 --> 00:34:25,678
7.7.

992
00:34:26,718 --> 00:34:28,118
Is that miles?

993
00:34:28,398 --> 00:34:28,558
Yeah.

994
00:34:28,658 --> 00:34:29,578
What is it in steps?

995
00:34:29,738 --> 00:34:30,038
I don't know.

996
00:34:31,198 --> 00:34:33,338
Man, you got to always do these damn currency conversions.

997
00:34:33,459 --> 00:34:34,698
No, just go to the steps.

998
00:34:35,618 --> 00:34:36,278
I'm getting there.

999
00:34:36,538 --> 00:34:37,778
Do you know your number?

1000
00:34:37,778 --> 00:34:38,419
Yeah, do you know yours?

1001
00:34:38,658 --> 00:34:39,738
Yeah, it's like 15,000.

1002
00:34:40,198 --> 00:34:40,738
Per day.

1003
00:34:40,959 --> 00:34:41,178
Per day.

1004
00:34:41,198 --> 00:34:41,578
For the year.

1005
00:34:41,638 --> 00:34:42,578
For every day of the year, yeah.

1006
00:34:42,978 --> 00:34:43,318
The average.

1007
00:34:43,658 --> 00:34:45,358
I'm at 15,440.

1008
00:34:45,358 --> 00:34:50,158
okay so we're about the same so i guess i can say i will i you know do 15 miles a day is fine

1009
00:34:50,158 --> 00:34:57,058
no no no no no no no because 15 miles that's a new one hold up hold up bro i think i'll be at

1010
00:34:57,058 --> 00:35:00,898
like seven or eight thousand despite running and biking a ton don't be don't be getting all crazy

1011
00:35:00,898 --> 00:35:07,498
for the week that i've been like up in my game and this is not whatever uh i'm at 20,388 and to

1012
00:35:07,498 --> 00:35:15,078
be clear to be clear on my good days lately i've been uh between 26 and 29 very nice but that's a

1013
00:35:15,078 --> 00:35:18,919
lot and you're exhausted by the end of the day you hurt and you feel so good it's like i'm like

1014
00:35:18,919 --> 00:35:23,598
but the thing is it's like i'm actually getting more done because now when i had this 11 readers

1015
00:35:23,598 --> 00:35:28,578
app so good i can just like i've had like 10 things that i wanted to go through and i literally

1016
00:35:28,578 --> 00:35:33,198
just i hate sitting at the computer now i can't do it but if i feed them now i'm just like i'm

1017
00:35:33,198 --> 00:35:37,098
listening to it and the great thing is and this is where one of my predictions is people are gonna

1018
00:35:37,098 --> 00:35:40,718
start getting their own warped reality goals which is not necessarily good because now what i'm doing

1019
00:35:40,718 --> 00:35:44,058
i did this last night to prepare for the show i was like all right listen we go back and forth

1020
00:35:44,058 --> 00:35:48,298
all right i don't got time to read all your stuff right now i want you to export this happy for you

1021
00:35:48,298 --> 00:35:55,038
exactly i'm gonna let you finish but first i'm gonna export this load it up in 11 reader and

1022
00:35:55,038 --> 00:35:59,138
then i listened to it like a podcast i was like damn but here's the thing because i was when you

1023
00:35:59,138 --> 00:36:02,978
really push google into an area like bitcoin or energy stuff that actually know pretty well

1024
00:36:02,978 --> 00:36:07,298
it's like you you listen you're like 80 90 like that's really good and convincing and then every

1025
00:36:07,298 --> 00:36:12,178
once in a while they wait a second that's just that's wrong and so you got to kind of got to

1026
00:36:12,178 --> 00:36:15,858
test the limits with something you actually know to see where the edges are. But still, I mean,

1027
00:36:15,939 --> 00:36:20,678
but the thing is, it sounds really compelling. And some of it was genius. And some of it was

1028
00:36:20,678 --> 00:36:23,838
bullshit. So I think people are going to increasingly, but you can make it say whatever

1029
00:36:23,838 --> 00:36:26,358
you wanted, right? So people are going to go in their own little reality bubbles where,

1030
00:36:26,498 --> 00:36:31,818
you know, I was thinking, you know, I don't know, like, Nick Carr is in a stable coin. So he can

1031
00:36:31,818 --> 00:36:34,778
probably have one where he talks about stable coins. I'm, you know, into like Bitcoin payments.

1032
00:36:34,838 --> 00:36:37,538
I hear one where it's going to be Bitcoin. Like everyone can hear their own version.

1033
00:36:37,878 --> 00:36:40,558
And are you feeding it stuff that you want to read?

1034
00:36:40,778 --> 00:36:41,138
Yeah, yeah.

1035
00:36:41,138 --> 00:36:44,758
are you are you using it for any discovery or

1036
00:36:44,758 --> 00:36:54,658
it's a lot of steps i know um yeah do you even walk bro do you even walk i know i know it's kind

1037
00:36:54,658 --> 00:37:00,078
of crazy it's yeah well it's also like it's it's the winter you know i need that light yeah um

1038
00:37:00,078 --> 00:37:03,998
anyways but the point is like you can make it say whatever you want to say

1039
00:37:03,998 --> 00:37:08,439
yeah and so it's like in in the current reality bubble world you can find like if you want to

1040
00:37:08,439 --> 00:37:09,878
and Alex Jones, there's Alex Jones.

1041
00:37:10,178 --> 00:37:12,338
You want to listen to whoever's the other equivalent

1042
00:37:12,338 --> 00:37:13,398
of Alex Jones, you can find that.

1043
00:37:13,419 --> 00:37:14,338
Like ideas from the edge.

1044
00:37:14,498 --> 00:37:14,698
Yeah.

1045
00:37:16,198 --> 00:37:19,398
But now everyone can have their own custom reality tunnel

1046
00:37:19,398 --> 00:37:22,459
and that's, I don't know if it's good or bad,

1047
00:37:22,518 --> 00:37:23,078
but it's interesting.

1048
00:37:23,258 --> 00:37:23,578
It's new.

1049
00:37:24,138 --> 00:37:24,978
So 2025.

1050
00:37:27,278 --> 00:37:28,358
He's like, stay on topic.

1051
00:37:28,518 --> 00:37:28,798
Exactly.

1052
00:37:29,118 --> 00:37:32,398
We have the list thanks to AI.

1053
00:37:32,939 --> 00:37:33,858
How do you want to do this?

1054
00:37:33,939 --> 00:37:34,738
You want to start with yours?

1055
00:37:35,158 --> 00:37:36,058
Sure, however you want to do it.

1056
00:37:36,118 --> 00:37:37,258
I mean, I don't have the list in front of me.

1057
00:37:37,398 --> 00:37:38,218
I have it in front of me.

1058
00:37:38,218 --> 00:37:46,459
all right steve ruthersey bitcoin price will rip to 500 000 in 2025 that was dk that was me

1059
00:37:46,459 --> 00:37:51,518
what i would say it's a joke it says max that doesn't sound like the kind of thing a trader

1060
00:37:51,518 --> 00:37:58,998
would say and i'm gonna dump it before the dump it the house baby um i also i just want to say i

1061
00:37:58,998 --> 00:38:05,098
think it got some of these like labeled by the wrong person so just we'll get to that um but

1062
00:38:05,098 --> 00:38:07,798
Yeah, dude, I was super wrong.

1063
00:38:07,939 --> 00:38:14,218
Yeah, you know, I'm still trying to understand what is,

1064
00:38:14,318 --> 00:38:15,738
I mean, the good news is whatever.

1065
00:38:15,858 --> 00:38:16,518
Like, I don't really care.

1066
00:38:16,678 --> 00:38:18,118
Like, timing is kind of relevant.

1067
00:38:18,258 --> 00:38:20,178
I'm like, you know, long-term thinking.

1068
00:38:20,478 --> 00:38:22,919
But it is interesting to me because it's like, you know,

1069
00:38:22,919 --> 00:38:25,878
I did think we were going to have more of a traditional cycle.

1070
00:38:26,018 --> 00:38:27,939
We haven't had a traditional cycle at all.

1071
00:38:28,038 --> 00:38:30,478
In fact, if you price it in gold like Danny does,

1072
00:38:30,538 --> 00:38:31,419
we didn't even have a bull run.

1073
00:38:32,218 --> 00:38:34,538
I think maybe we're up a few percentage points or something.

1074
00:38:34,538 --> 00:38:40,218
like it's bitcoin's down versus gold over five years down versus gold yeah down versus tesla a

1075
00:38:40,218 --> 00:38:45,118
lot too as dk and i discussed yesterday but it's it's down versus a lot of things ai stocks but

1076
00:38:45,118 --> 00:38:49,578
but specifically like it hasn't even had a bull run like i forgot where i saw this on twitter but

1077
00:38:49,578 --> 00:38:55,178
someone's making the point where if you price and adjust for inflation dollars even where it was at

1078
00:38:55,178 --> 00:39:01,498
the high in 21 um at the blow off top versus now and you adjust for inflation it's like

1079
00:39:01,498 --> 00:39:08,878
similar yeah it's not it's not like a clear bull run at all um so i was super wrong about it i'm

1080
00:39:08,878 --> 00:39:16,078
surprised now you know i um maybe the four-year cycle stuff is breaking my my strong suspicion is

1081
00:39:16,078 --> 00:39:22,258
and this is just you know the purpose of a system is what it does so i'm not saying it should be

1082
00:39:22,258 --> 00:39:26,878
different but i think one thing i was wrong about is like in the same way that i thought i was going

1083
00:39:26,878 --> 00:39:31,858
to rip higher in the first cycle in 21 and then it turns out ftx was just printing paper bitcoin

1084
00:39:31,858 --> 00:39:36,038
like i think the price would have gone way over 69k the first time if not for that paper printing

1085
00:39:36,038 --> 00:39:40,818
my guess is there's one day we're going to discover that like turns out the whole financial

1086
00:39:40,818 --> 00:39:45,218
system is like ftx on steroids somehow and there's like all kinds of shenanigans yeah it's just at a

1087
00:39:45,218 --> 00:39:50,598
much bigger scale and the whole system is like that um and so you know whatever but yeah but i

1088
00:39:50,598 --> 00:39:55,478
was just super fucking wrong and um it's disappointing can't we say that the four-year

1089
00:39:55,478 --> 00:40:02,538
cycle has been broken i mean yeah i guess even even even the last cycle it was uh a little

1090
00:40:02,538 --> 00:40:09,419
different there were a couple bounces to 60ks yeah and which didn't which was not a similar pattern

1091
00:40:09,419 --> 00:40:14,558
in this one if the four-year i forget the exact timing but basically by the end of this year it

1092
00:40:14,558 --> 00:40:19,178
should have like we should be in it should have ripped we should be at a blow off top right around

1093
00:40:19,178 --> 00:40:21,298
now is when we hit

1094
00:40:21,298 --> 00:40:23,278
start the

1095
00:40:23,278 --> 00:40:24,518
decline to a bear market.

1096
00:40:24,798 --> 00:40:27,238
Which we're sort of in, but we never

1097
00:40:27,238 --> 00:40:29,198
had any kind of rip. I know this sounds like

1098
00:40:29,198 --> 00:40:31,058
a dumb question, but I'm just going to ask the dumb question.

1099
00:40:31,358 --> 00:40:32,858
What the heck is the four-year cycle?

1100
00:40:33,498 --> 00:40:35,118
Is it a calendar year? Is it based

1101
00:40:35,118 --> 00:40:36,078
on the having?

1102
00:40:36,738 --> 00:40:39,078
So it lines up from

1103
00:40:39,078 --> 00:40:39,738
having to having?

1104
00:40:40,459 --> 00:40:42,439
And to be clear, we still did have...

1105
00:40:42,439 --> 00:40:44,939
How many verified sequences

1106
00:40:44,939 --> 00:40:46,518
are there? Four of them have happened?

1107
00:40:47,518 --> 00:40:48,459
We're in the three.

1108
00:40:48,778 --> 00:40:49,298
4.4.

1109
00:40:49,658 --> 00:40:49,778
Yeah.

1110
00:40:49,919 --> 00:40:50,098
Okay.

1111
00:40:50,558 --> 00:40:53,738
And to be clear, I mean, if you look back two years ago, and by the way, just everyone's

1112
00:40:53,738 --> 00:40:54,939
like, oh, Bitcoin is so down.

1113
00:40:55,218 --> 00:40:57,058
No, it's like, I mean, two years ago, we were at 30K at Christmas.

1114
00:40:57,318 --> 00:40:59,638
So like, I mean, just everything in perspective.

1115
00:41:00,238 --> 00:41:01,018
Now, someone would say-

1116
00:41:01,018 --> 00:41:01,718
Was that high or that was low?

1117
00:41:02,218 --> 00:41:02,798
Well, that was low.

1118
00:41:02,878 --> 00:41:04,558
I mean, like we were obviously higher than that.

1119
00:41:04,718 --> 00:41:05,378
So my point is-

1120
00:41:05,378 --> 00:41:06,718
At the time, it was higher or low?

1121
00:41:06,718 --> 00:41:07,078
Yeah.

1122
00:41:07,138 --> 00:41:12,798
And you saw, you know, Bitcoin price action go higher prior to the halving than it had

1123
00:41:12,798 --> 00:41:13,558
in prior cycles.

1124
00:41:13,658 --> 00:41:15,378
And part of that was because ETS got approved.

1125
00:41:15,798 --> 00:41:16,078
Yeah.

1126
00:41:16,138 --> 00:41:16,638
I mean, I don't know.

1127
00:41:16,678 --> 00:41:18,198
It's just like, I'm not saying halvings are-

1128
00:41:18,459 --> 00:41:20,558
irrelevant. Obviously, reducing

1129
00:41:20,558 --> 00:41:22,398
the supply is going

1130
00:41:22,398 --> 00:41:24,479
to increase price in some way, shape, or form.

1131
00:41:24,878 --> 00:41:26,419
But you already know that's going to happen.

1132
00:41:26,558 --> 00:41:28,459
Well, that's the question. Is it getting priced in

1133
00:41:28,459 --> 00:41:30,419
earlier? I don't think it's possible

1134
00:41:30,419 --> 00:41:32,498
to price it in, which is a whole other...

1135
00:41:32,498 --> 00:41:34,318
Maybe we talk about that. If you actually

1136
00:41:34,318 --> 00:41:36,459
believe you can price it in, I think it's a fascinating

1137
00:41:36,459 --> 00:41:37,858
discussion, but I'm quite convinced

1138
00:41:37,858 --> 00:41:40,178
you can't price that in.

1139
00:41:40,419 --> 00:41:42,358
It's kind of like people talk about the inflation

1140
00:41:42,358 --> 00:41:44,118
rate of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has an inflation rate.

1141
00:41:44,858 --> 00:41:46,439
We know what the inflation rate is, and it

1142
00:41:46,439 --> 00:41:48,419
will eventually hit the $21 million, but it's not actually.

1143
00:41:48,459 --> 00:41:50,238
there, right? Yeah. And I just want to agree

1144
00:41:50,238 --> 00:41:52,398
with Matthew. I mean, I was super wrong

1145
00:41:52,398 --> 00:41:54,419
on my prediction. Like, I'm clearly not a trader. So, I mean,

1146
00:41:54,459 --> 00:41:56,358
from now on, if you want price action,

1147
00:41:56,558 --> 00:41:57,038
talk to DK.

1148
00:41:58,498 --> 00:42:00,218
But we have a lot of predictions.

1149
00:42:00,979 --> 00:42:02,439
So let's keep, let's stay on track.

1150
00:42:02,878 --> 00:42:04,439
So, because we've only

1151
00:42:04,439 --> 00:42:06,298
gone through one of like 20, and

1152
00:42:06,298 --> 00:42:08,138
we have to do next year, and we have other topics.

1153
00:42:08,138 --> 00:42:09,338
And we got like 400 more.

1154
00:42:09,638 --> 00:42:10,218
What a job.

1155
00:42:10,618 --> 00:42:11,758
Okay. All right.

1156
00:42:12,998 --> 00:42:14,419
Multiple breakout Lightning

1157
00:42:14,419 --> 00:42:16,158
Network applications with millions

1158
00:42:16,158 --> 00:42:17,979
of dollars flowing through them.

1159
00:42:18,459 --> 00:42:22,959
yeah so i would say the spirit of this was wrong it didn't break out as much as i thought it would

1160
00:42:22,959 --> 00:42:27,338
however as i did do a little bit more sort of research and reflection on this i don't know

1161
00:42:27,338 --> 00:42:30,959
again with lightning it's hard to know the actual numbers you know you saw the announcement of

1162
00:42:30,959 --> 00:42:36,258
speed wallet getting funded they claim that they have like a ton of volume and you know in excess

1163
00:42:36,258 --> 00:42:41,358
of millions of dollars this has crosses over 1.5 billion dollars in annual volume yeah which to me

1164
00:42:41,358 --> 00:42:48,398
sounds like i i'm an ai hallucination dreamly dubious and skeptical but maybe but maybe

1165
00:42:48,398 --> 00:42:49,198
and if so

1166
00:42:49,198 --> 00:42:50,218
you know

1167
00:42:50,218 --> 00:42:50,658
that would be

1168
00:42:50,658 --> 00:42:51,318
can we get a refresh

1169
00:42:51,318 --> 00:42:52,218
I know I shared in

1170
00:42:52,218 --> 00:42:52,798
the group

1171
00:42:52,798 --> 00:42:53,378
and you guys are like

1172
00:42:53,378 --> 00:42:54,138
I've already talked about that

1173
00:42:54,138 --> 00:42:55,178
but what is Speed Wallet

1174
00:42:55,178 --> 00:42:56,218
it's the guys

1175
00:42:56,218 --> 00:42:57,138
that's the payment processor

1176
00:42:57,138 --> 00:42:57,939
for Steak and Shake

1177
00:42:57,939 --> 00:42:59,278
oh okay

1178
00:42:59,278 --> 00:42:59,778
okay

1179
00:42:59,778 --> 00:43:00,498
anyways

1180
00:43:00,498 --> 00:43:01,558
point is

1181
00:43:01,558 --> 00:43:02,358
also a lot of gaming

1182
00:43:02,358 --> 00:43:02,858
and stuff

1183
00:43:02,858 --> 00:43:03,358
they either

1184
00:43:03,358 --> 00:43:04,338
yeah

1185
00:43:04,338 --> 00:43:05,158
I don't know if they have

1186
00:43:05,158 --> 00:43:05,578
the games

1187
00:43:05,578 --> 00:43:06,058
or they

1188
00:43:06,058 --> 00:43:07,378
they're the wallet

1189
00:43:07,378 --> 00:43:08,498
to the gambling

1190
00:43:08,498 --> 00:43:08,919
but

1191
00:43:08,919 --> 00:43:10,058
I mean

1192
00:43:10,058 --> 00:43:10,919
so I think there is

1193
00:43:10,919 --> 00:43:11,838
real growth there

1194
00:43:11,838 --> 00:43:12,638
there's real activity

1195
00:43:12,638 --> 00:43:13,479
there's real activity

1196
00:43:13,479 --> 00:43:14,278
billions of dollars

1197
00:43:14,278 --> 00:43:14,998
but it's

1198
00:43:14,998 --> 00:43:15,758
well and to be clear

1199
00:43:15,758 --> 00:43:16,318
I said millions

1200
00:43:16,318 --> 00:43:16,998
so if they're claiming

1201
00:43:16,998 --> 00:43:17,398
billions

1202
00:43:17,398 --> 00:43:18,138
like probably

1203
00:43:18,138 --> 00:43:20,998
Well, no, the AI hallucination is claiming 1.5 billion.

1204
00:43:21,058 --> 00:43:22,358
Anyway, it was not an AI hallucination.

1205
00:43:22,538 --> 00:43:24,238
That was in the press release for the third.

1206
00:43:24,298 --> 00:43:26,298
I'm quite certain there's real activity there.

1207
00:43:26,298 --> 00:43:27,439
Yeah, there's real activity there.

1208
00:43:27,798 --> 00:43:29,698
Like, we know there's volume on Cash App.

1209
00:43:30,018 --> 00:43:31,018
Like, that has grown.

1210
00:43:31,398 --> 00:43:34,959
We know that the exchanges, well, I mean, a year ago,

1211
00:43:35,238 --> 00:43:36,318
they didn't even have Lightning, right?

1212
00:43:36,318 --> 00:43:36,998
Or two years ago.

1213
00:43:37,058 --> 00:43:37,998
So, like, that's probably grown.

1214
00:43:38,298 --> 00:43:42,198
So, I would say, technically, I could probably squeeze this to be yes.

1215
00:43:42,258 --> 00:43:44,398
But the spirit of what I thought was no,

1216
00:43:44,498 --> 00:43:46,979
because I thought we're going to have some, like, clear breakout winners.

1217
00:43:47,298 --> 00:43:47,358
Right.

1218
00:43:47,878 --> 00:43:48,578
All right, your next one.

1219
00:43:48,678 --> 00:43:50,678
Prediction markets on Bitcoin will emerge.

1220
00:43:51,278 --> 00:43:51,778
Yeah, they emerge.

1221
00:43:52,118 --> 00:43:52,578
Well, predicts.

1222
00:43:52,618 --> 00:43:53,058
Predicts.

1223
00:43:53,138 --> 00:43:53,298
Yeah.

1224
00:43:53,558 --> 00:43:56,178
I don't think they got as big as I thought against Spirit, but like...

1225
00:43:56,178 --> 00:44:00,178
And this has Bitnomial secured CFTC clearance for Bitcoin-based prediction markets.

1226
00:44:00,278 --> 00:44:01,998
We have to ask Matt Reith about that.

1227
00:44:02,558 --> 00:44:04,318
I don't know anything about that.

1228
00:44:04,378 --> 00:44:05,718
That was an AI comment.

1229
00:44:05,718 --> 00:44:09,678
But if Bitnomial is doing Bitcoin-based prediction markets, that'd be interesting.

1230
00:44:11,098 --> 00:44:14,678
Multiple Nostra apps will process millions in payments.

1231
00:44:15,038 --> 00:44:15,318
Yes.

1232
00:44:15,479 --> 00:44:16,778
Specifically naming Primal.

1233
00:44:17,358 --> 00:44:18,718
That's definitely no.

1234
00:44:19,578 --> 00:44:21,778
But when I re-listened to what I was talking about today,

1235
00:44:21,919 --> 00:44:23,538
I don't know if I got this exactly right.

1236
00:44:23,959 --> 00:44:25,778
I think the payment part was totally wrong.

1237
00:44:25,898 --> 00:44:29,578
I did say we're going to have breakout Nostra apps

1238
00:44:29,578 --> 00:44:30,618
in addition to what we have.

1239
00:44:30,998 --> 00:44:33,898
And again, the spirit of what I said was a little too bullish.

1240
00:44:34,439 --> 00:44:36,838
However, I actually thought more about this

1241
00:44:36,838 --> 00:44:39,158
and I was like, in a way, not the payment volume piece,

1242
00:44:39,238 --> 00:44:42,058
but the user piece is yes with BitChat.

1243
00:44:43,439 --> 00:44:44,558
I mean, BitChat, I would argue,

1244
00:44:44,558 --> 00:44:48,078
is probably the most popular Nostra app ever.

1245
00:44:48,898 --> 00:44:51,038
So in the same way we're talking about Bitcoin.

1246
00:44:51,118 --> 00:44:52,818
And notably, it doesn't claim to be a Nostra app.

1247
00:44:52,919 --> 00:44:53,178
Exactly.

1248
00:44:53,378 --> 00:44:54,939
So in a weird way, yes.

1249
00:44:55,318 --> 00:44:57,038
On the user front, definitely not on the payment front.

1250
00:44:57,658 --> 00:44:58,479
Your next one.

1251
00:44:58,598 --> 00:45:00,939
First AI agent to become a multimillionaire

1252
00:45:00,939 --> 00:45:01,959
using Bitcoin and Lightning.

1253
00:45:03,898 --> 00:45:06,558
Again, it kind of like said that, what's his name?

1254
00:45:06,558 --> 00:45:07,338
Truth Terminal, right?

1255
00:45:07,959 --> 00:45:08,818
Yeah, Truth Terminal.

1256
00:45:09,518 --> 00:45:10,618
Yeah, but that already happened.

1257
00:45:10,998 --> 00:45:11,858
It had happened the year before.

1258
00:45:11,858 --> 00:45:17,459
So, I mean, technically in a court of law, maybe, but like, but no.

1259
00:45:18,838 --> 00:45:19,558
Next one.

1260
00:45:20,558 --> 00:45:21,538
Twitter or X.

1261
00:45:21,758 --> 00:45:21,998
Lightning.

1262
00:45:22,218 --> 00:45:22,358
Yeah.

1263
00:45:22,498 --> 00:45:24,138
We'll integrate lightning from mainstream volume.

1264
00:45:25,258 --> 00:45:25,959
Next one.

1265
00:45:26,078 --> 00:45:30,198
Nostra will be used for authenticity verification to combat deep fakes.

1266
00:45:30,338 --> 00:45:30,618
Not really.

1267
00:45:30,798 --> 00:45:30,998
No.

1268
00:45:31,378 --> 00:45:32,479
And the last one from X.

1269
00:45:32,598 --> 00:45:35,858
The U.S. government will nationalize microstrategy.

1270
00:45:36,158 --> 00:45:36,338
No.

1271
00:45:36,498 --> 00:45:40,358
Now, to be clear, that's AI is wrong on that because I was not saying that would happen

1272
00:45:40,358 --> 00:45:41,098
this year.

1273
00:45:41,858 --> 00:45:44,258
So part of your 2025 predictions...

1274
00:45:44,258 --> 00:45:45,778
But in general, I still believe that's going to happen,

1275
00:45:45,858 --> 00:45:46,658
that they will not...

1276
00:45:46,658 --> 00:45:47,598
I think there's a risk of that, yeah.

1277
00:45:47,858 --> 00:45:48,718
I think that's going to happen.

1278
00:45:48,718 --> 00:45:49,939
I don't think it's a crazy idea.

1279
00:45:50,058 --> 00:45:51,678
Apparently, David only had two predictions.

1280
00:45:51,979 --> 00:45:53,439
Yeah, I think the guy got this wrong.

1281
00:45:53,698 --> 00:45:55,338
A celebrity will emerge specifically

1282
00:45:55,338 --> 00:45:57,618
because they earned a substantial amount of Bitcoin,

1283
00:45:58,058 --> 00:45:58,778
human or agent.

1284
00:46:00,138 --> 00:46:03,058
So your AI said verdict correct,

1285
00:46:03,518 --> 00:46:06,998
but I think, again, it's affirming the truth terminal thing,

1286
00:46:07,058 --> 00:46:07,718
which was 2024.

1287
00:46:07,718 --> 00:46:09,398
Yeah, and you also said, like,

1288
00:46:09,498 --> 00:46:11,658
someone's going to get famous for earning Bitcoin.

1289
00:46:11,658 --> 00:46:13,738
Truth or not, didn't even earn Bitcoin from some Alicia coin.

1290
00:46:14,598 --> 00:46:15,238
Next one.

1291
00:46:15,318 --> 00:46:18,738
U.S. government will co-opt or nationalize Bitcoin-related assets.

1292
00:46:20,198 --> 00:46:23,258
Co-opted 200,000 BTC held by the DOJ,

1293
00:46:23,419 --> 00:46:24,498
formerly slated for auction.

1294
00:46:24,638 --> 00:46:26,818
Yeah, but the spirit of that is lame.

1295
00:46:28,358 --> 00:46:31,018
Yeah, they said they're not going to sell what they already had.

1296
00:46:31,238 --> 00:46:31,778
Like, okay.

1297
00:46:33,459 --> 00:46:34,979
All right, now we'll rattle through mine.

1298
00:46:35,479 --> 00:46:38,098
So Lightning Network will grow explosively.

1299
00:46:39,138 --> 00:46:39,838
Did I actually...

1300
00:46:39,838 --> 00:46:40,758
I'd have to go...

1301
00:46:40,758 --> 00:46:42,798
I actually say it. That doesn't sound like

1302
00:46:42,798 --> 00:46:44,698
how I would... Yeah, again, I think

1303
00:46:44,698 --> 00:46:46,778
it's not... Listening again today

1304
00:46:46,778 --> 00:46:48,858
this morning, you said something along the lines of agreeing

1305
00:46:48,858 --> 00:46:49,959
with the spirit of Max.

1306
00:46:51,078 --> 00:46:52,698
Yeah. Okay.

1307
00:46:53,018 --> 00:46:54,738
And then, I definitely remember the next one.

1308
00:46:54,838 --> 00:46:56,919
A major mining pool will adopt Stratum V2.

1309
00:46:57,338 --> 00:46:58,698
And that has not occurred,

1310
00:46:58,778 --> 00:47:00,758
despite AI saying it occurred. That's not

1311
00:47:00,758 --> 00:47:03,058
occurred. Not what I was...

1312
00:47:03,058 --> 00:47:04,718
AI is wrong in almost all of these.

1313
00:47:04,919 --> 00:47:05,459
Yeah, shit.

1314
00:47:06,419 --> 00:47:07,419
Be careful out there.

1315
00:47:07,419 --> 00:47:09,558
Not yet, but I remain

1316
00:47:09,558 --> 00:47:11,439
bullish on that. Next one, there will

1317
00:47:11,439 --> 00:47:13,618
be no consensus rule changes

1318
00:47:13,618 --> 00:47:15,278
in 2025. So that's the only one

1319
00:47:15,278 --> 00:47:17,678
that really clearly was correct.

1320
00:47:18,678 --> 00:47:19,578
It turns out you claim

1321
00:47:19,578 --> 00:47:20,558
Bitcoin doesn't change.

1322
00:47:20,558 --> 00:47:23,459
Not going out on a huge limb, saying

1323
00:47:23,459 --> 00:47:25,338
there won't be consensus changes in a year.

1324
00:47:25,398 --> 00:47:27,578
I would just like to make a prediction that the sun will come up

1325
00:47:27,578 --> 00:47:29,018
tomorrow. Has everyone got that?

1326
00:47:29,158 --> 00:47:29,798
Were we on record?

1327
00:47:32,078 --> 00:47:44,337
Next one the next change oh the next consensus change will be the great consensus cleanup in 2026 Well you know We find out We find out And then a couple more

1328
00:47:44,757 --> 00:47:47,197
Several major Bitcoin brands will adopt Bolt 12.

1329
00:47:47,657 --> 00:47:48,517
Well, we are up to it.

1330
00:47:49,557 --> 00:47:50,417
Well, yeah.

1331
00:47:50,877 --> 00:47:51,957
So I'd call this a miss.

1332
00:47:53,117 --> 00:47:57,097
The good news is like a couple dozen applications support Bolt 12 now.

1333
00:47:57,097 --> 00:48:02,797
So it's got a lot of support, but it doesn't yet have Cash App or what I was imagining.

1334
00:48:03,017 --> 00:48:04,697
I would say Phoenix is a major brand.

1335
00:48:05,757 --> 00:48:07,017
Okay, good.

1336
00:48:07,417 --> 00:48:12,037
But I was imagining like Cash App, Coinbase, et cetera.

1337
00:48:13,097 --> 00:48:18,117
Cash App is now on public record saying it's the roadmap and it'll happen next year.

1338
00:48:18,497 --> 00:48:18,617
That's big.

1339
00:48:19,577 --> 00:48:24,417
And then my last one was, and this is the audacious one, Meta will acquire LightSpark.

1340
00:48:24,637 --> 00:48:25,657
And that did not occur.

1341
00:48:25,657 --> 00:48:33,897
so tldr for predictions um we sucked yeah did a horrible job but but honestly like i i actually

1342
00:48:33,897 --> 00:48:40,257
now we're gonna come and make but now but guys now you can believe you can believe us for 2026

1343
00:48:40,257 --> 00:48:45,417
yeah we know what we're talking about let's we're we're gonna stop printing money inflation will go

1344
00:48:45,417 --> 00:48:54,257
down and there's too many damn billionaires so um but i think another way to judge predictions is

1345
00:48:54,257 --> 00:48:55,797
would you make them again?

1346
00:48:56,177 --> 00:48:58,317
Would we make these for

1347
00:48:58,317 --> 00:48:59,117
next year?

1348
00:48:59,657 --> 00:49:02,837
Meaning you can be directionally

1349
00:49:02,837 --> 00:49:04,557
wrong or timing

1350
00:49:04,557 --> 00:49:06,577
wrong. And my assessment

1351
00:49:06,577 --> 00:49:08,637
of most of these... I think we're all right. It's just too early.

1352
00:49:08,757 --> 00:49:10,637
I think too early. As always.

1353
00:49:12,137 --> 00:49:12,497
So

1354
00:49:12,497 --> 00:49:14,517
part of my 2026

1355
00:49:14,517 --> 00:49:16,317
prediction... We could just recycle all of them.

1356
00:49:16,437 --> 00:49:17,597
Literally, I would recycle

1357
00:49:17,597 --> 00:49:20,617
all of

1358
00:49:20,617 --> 00:49:20,857
mine.

1359
00:49:20,857 --> 00:49:28,437
so the only the only one if anyone wants to be rich as fuck listen closely for the next 30 minutes

1360
00:49:28,437 --> 00:49:33,277
so i believe i believe we've been moved from the view to jim kramer yeah

1361
00:49:33,277 --> 00:49:39,817
we've moved what the from the view to jim kramer yes i i like that all right all right um yeah i

1362
00:49:39,817 --> 00:49:46,977
would actually say yeah i will uh take all of my 2025 predictions move them 2026 including

1363
00:49:46,977 --> 00:49:48,977
bumping up the great consensus cleanup

1364
00:49:48,977 --> 00:49:51,117
from a 2026 to a 2027

1365
00:49:51,117 --> 00:49:52,397
prediction.

1366
00:49:53,537 --> 00:49:55,017
2027 meaning you're going to skip

1367
00:49:55,017 --> 00:49:56,697
2027. I don't think it'll activate

1368
00:49:56,697 --> 00:49:58,917
in 2026. So literally

1369
00:49:58,917 --> 00:50:00,477
just bump everything up by one.

1370
00:50:00,537 --> 00:50:03,057
You know what? If we're going to do that, let's just say, yeah, but let's

1371
00:50:03,057 --> 00:50:04,977
give ourselves the next decade. We'll check

1372
00:50:04,977 --> 00:50:06,677
back when you're listening in 2035.

1373
00:50:07,117 --> 00:50:08,177
Are you going to rip to 500k?

1374
00:50:08,397 --> 00:50:10,837
Yeah, for sure. Check it back in 2035.

1375
00:50:12,877 --> 00:50:14,877
I don't like doing price predictions, but

1376
00:50:14,877 --> 00:50:16,957
since you gave a price prediction,

1377
00:50:17,417 --> 00:50:18,717
what is your...

1378
00:50:18,717 --> 00:50:19,617
I'm out of that game.

1379
00:50:19,837 --> 00:50:21,917
What is your peak price prediction in 2026?

1380
00:50:21,997 --> 00:50:22,597
I'm out of that game.

1381
00:50:22,697 --> 00:50:22,877
Okay.

1382
00:50:23,077 --> 00:50:23,977
I do have predictions.

1383
00:50:24,097 --> 00:50:26,197
I don't want to make a price prediction number,

1384
00:50:26,657 --> 00:50:28,297
you know, like a specific number,

1385
00:50:28,357 --> 00:50:31,357
but I will say I don't really buy

1386
00:50:31,357 --> 00:50:34,957
four-year cycle theory as being like a real thing.

1387
00:50:35,337 --> 00:50:36,417
I just think there's too many other...

1388
00:50:36,417 --> 00:50:37,557
I mean, it was, to be clear.

1389
00:50:37,977 --> 00:50:38,997
I mean, historically,

1390
00:50:38,997 --> 00:50:40,397
you can look at any data set

1391
00:50:40,397 --> 00:50:42,397
and shape it to some narrative you want.

1392
00:50:43,057 --> 00:50:43,417
You can.

1393
00:50:43,417 --> 00:50:46,057
You don't think that having played a role early on?

1394
00:50:46,217 --> 00:50:46,457
Maybe.

1395
00:50:46,937 --> 00:50:49,057
You don't think cutting from 50 to 25?

1396
00:50:49,237 --> 00:50:50,637
These are very complex systems.

1397
00:50:50,777 --> 00:50:54,437
I think it's hard to make concrete judgments

1398
00:50:54,437 --> 00:50:56,457
about exactly what happened and why it happened.

1399
00:50:57,277 --> 00:50:58,737
I don't think it's crazy to say,

1400
00:50:59,077 --> 00:51:00,417
hey, look, we observed this phenomenon.

1401
00:51:01,377 --> 00:51:02,777
These numbers occurred in this way.

1402
00:51:03,277 --> 00:51:04,857
But I don't think it's like a thing.

1403
00:51:04,997 --> 00:51:05,757
I think it's more like...

1404
00:51:05,757 --> 00:51:07,217
I observe this weird phenomenon

1405
00:51:07,217 --> 00:51:10,057
where if I take water and move it to 32 degrees Celsius

1406
00:51:10,057 --> 00:51:11,977
or Fahrenheit, all of a sudden...

1407
00:51:11,977 --> 00:51:12,817
That is very different.

1408
00:51:12,817 --> 00:51:20,917
I actually do. I think with a Bitcoin audience, what DK is saying is maybe outrageous, but I definitely agree with you in general.

1409
00:51:21,237 --> 00:51:21,677
In general, I agree.

1410
00:51:21,677 --> 00:51:24,017
People overfit data all the time.

1411
00:51:24,457 --> 00:51:28,237
Exactly. Matthew, you're right. DK, money printing doesn't affect money.

1412
00:51:28,497 --> 00:51:33,397
Listen, there's this phenomenon. We don't know why the prices go up.

1413
00:51:33,517 --> 00:51:37,517
I mean, it could be correlated.

1414
00:51:38,417 --> 00:51:39,917
My own opinion, though.

1415
00:51:39,917 --> 00:51:43,437
But I think that there is substance.

1416
00:51:43,617 --> 00:51:48,057
I mean, it is definitely factual that the having takes away supply.

1417
00:51:48,057 --> 00:51:53,537
And miners are a different type of seller than a regular person.

1418
00:51:53,797 --> 00:51:58,757
Like as a miner, you have expenses that are denominated.

1419
00:51:58,757 --> 00:51:59,337
You have to pay.

1420
00:51:59,577 --> 00:52:00,217
That you have to pay.

1421
00:52:01,237 --> 00:52:05,217
So in general, you're forced to sell it, whatever the current market rate is.

1422
00:52:05,217 --> 00:52:07,257
Whereas anyone listening or us,

1423
00:52:07,257 --> 00:52:10,397
if we don't like the current price,

1424
00:52:10,497 --> 00:52:11,997
we can just keep holding it or whatever.

1425
00:52:13,297 --> 00:52:16,777
So that forced selling definitely puts downward pressure on the price,

1426
00:52:16,897 --> 00:52:18,697
and that gets reduced every four years.

1427
00:52:19,177 --> 00:52:21,337
So that's non-debatable.

1428
00:52:22,137 --> 00:52:25,617
I also think it's become a marketing event,

1429
00:52:26,117 --> 00:52:29,237
which enters the consciousness of people,

1430
00:52:29,537 --> 00:52:33,417
which I do think impacts trading and timing.

1431
00:52:33,417 --> 00:52:42,957
Like in a bear market, I think there's a ton of people who have already become convinced that Bitcoin's a great investment at that point.

1432
00:52:43,097 --> 00:52:45,697
And then they love a bear market because they don't have enough.

1433
00:52:46,057 --> 00:52:47,917
But they don't buy it like right away.

1434
00:52:48,217 --> 00:52:52,837
They kind of expect it to be 12, 18, 24 months before the next bull market.

1435
00:52:53,037 --> 00:52:54,817
So they wait to allocate later.

1436
00:52:55,137 --> 00:52:56,397
And it just becomes a thing.

1437
00:52:56,477 --> 00:52:58,017
So I think those two are true.

1438
00:52:58,257 --> 00:53:00,717
But obviously the first one gets diminished over time.

1439
00:53:00,817 --> 00:53:02,097
And now it's almost negligible.

1440
00:53:02,097 --> 00:53:04,297
And I agree, like, over time, like, complex systems

1441
00:53:04,297 --> 00:53:05,757
are going to be complex systems, and, like,

1442
00:53:06,017 --> 00:53:08,277
we're heading... You've heard of the Santa Claus rally

1443
00:53:08,277 --> 00:53:09,357
in the stock market? No.

1444
00:53:10,397 --> 00:53:12,057
So, which is a good point.

1445
00:53:12,317 --> 00:53:14,417
Same thing. That sounds like bullshit. I've created a list

1446
00:53:14,417 --> 00:53:16,157
of, like, 21 reasons people

1447
00:53:16,157 --> 00:53:18,037
sell, right? And so it's a complex system.

1448
00:53:18,137 --> 00:53:20,037
That's why, when people say, like, oh, I'm surprised

1449
00:53:20,037 --> 00:53:21,417
the price didn't move on this event,

1450
00:53:21,557 --> 00:53:24,277
it's like, well, because there's a million

1451
00:53:24,277 --> 00:53:26,097
different variables that go into

1452
00:53:26,097 --> 00:53:27,977
the price of Bitcoin. Like, there may be a bunch of

1453
00:53:27,977 --> 00:53:30,017
OGs selling calls on Ibit

1454
00:53:30,017 --> 00:53:31,977
right now, right? That's, like, a theory that I think

1455
00:53:32,097 --> 00:53:37,257
somebody shared in the chat like probably the case how much does that impact yeah the up or

1456
00:53:37,257 --> 00:53:43,537
down like i agree with you today but i'm i i think early on cutting the supply now is like a major

1457
00:53:43,537 --> 00:53:49,277
to me obvious shock to the system but regardless let's we can't just roll our predictions for

1458
00:53:49,277 --> 00:53:53,357
that's super late what i'm saying let's give it the thing i'll the thing i was gonna give is i

1459
00:53:53,357 --> 00:53:58,397
think the four-year cycle is an overfit and it has nice narratives around but i think it's overfit

1460
00:53:58,397 --> 00:53:59,017
I don't think it's real.

1461
00:53:59,077 --> 00:54:02,777
So I think we're about to enter the fourth year, is it now?

1462
00:54:03,297 --> 00:54:05,477
Like, we're ending the one that should be down?

1463
00:54:06,037 --> 00:54:06,657
I don't even remember.

1464
00:54:06,817 --> 00:54:09,997
Right now, if you subscribe to the four-year cycle,

1465
00:54:10,377 --> 00:54:12,637
we should have just blown a top off

1466
00:54:12,637 --> 00:54:14,497
and it should be entering the bear market.

1467
00:54:14,517 --> 00:54:15,557
Which means we're probably going to rip it up.

1468
00:54:15,617 --> 00:54:18,037
So I'll make the call that I think it's all bullshit

1469
00:54:18,037 --> 00:54:20,617
and, like, you know, I think we'll go higher in 2026.

1470
00:54:20,797 --> 00:54:22,297
Well, I will also say we'll go higher.

1471
00:54:23,637 --> 00:54:25,517
Despite the four-year cycle, shouldn't we be down?

1472
00:54:26,457 --> 00:54:27,537
I'm saying the four-year cycle,

1473
00:54:27,537 --> 00:54:30,257
So I'm willing to open to concede that it's gone now.

1474
00:54:30,717 --> 00:54:32,697
I think early on, it's like pretty clear to me.

1475
00:54:32,877 --> 00:54:35,437
But at this point, I would say complex systems are going to complex.

1476
00:54:35,857 --> 00:54:37,657
Anyways, I think we should do real predictions, guys.

1477
00:54:37,857 --> 00:54:38,397
This is lame.

1478
00:54:38,457 --> 00:54:39,157
We can't just roll them.

1479
00:54:39,157 --> 00:54:40,277
Okay, I'll give you a real one.

1480
00:54:40,557 --> 00:54:41,737
I've got a whole list of them.

1481
00:54:41,777 --> 00:54:42,417
You want to go first?

1482
00:54:42,577 --> 00:54:43,197
I only have a few.

1483
00:54:43,337 --> 00:54:43,877
You go first.

1484
00:54:43,957 --> 00:54:44,537
I got to pull mine up.

1485
00:54:45,017 --> 00:54:49,717
Vibe coded Bitcoin payments with at least one example as some interesting moment.

1486
00:54:49,717 --> 00:54:53,117
So I think there's going to be some kind of like what I said with the agent stuff.

1487
00:54:53,117 --> 00:55:05,577
I think there's going to be somebody like Matt who has already demonstrated on a small scale that a bunch of people are using the software he built and paying him in Bitcoin to use the software that he built on a very small scale.

1488
00:55:05,637 --> 00:55:11,577
But if people he doesn't know, I think that as a we're seeing a very early indication of what that looks like.

1489
00:55:11,577 --> 00:55:16,297
I think that's going to there's going to be some mainstreaming of that phenomenon in 2026.

1490
00:55:16,297 --> 00:55:24,817
My guess is that probably it's likely to happen in the virtual halls that you're familiar with.

1491
00:55:24,897 --> 00:55:29,377
So maybe like in Matt's Discord or something would be the kind of place that would instigate.

1492
00:55:29,497 --> 00:55:30,297
What specifically?

1493
00:55:30,857 --> 00:55:34,697
That apps will be built, an app will be built that does payment?

1494
00:55:35,317 --> 00:55:38,857
That has some sort of notoriety that some, you know, I don't want to.

1495
00:55:38,977 --> 00:55:40,257
He said have a moment, whatever that is.

1496
00:55:40,257 --> 00:55:40,857
Have a moment.

1497
00:55:41,057 --> 00:55:42,297
He's leaving himself a lot of record.

1498
00:55:42,717 --> 00:55:44,397
I'd say Truth Terminal had a moment.

1499
00:55:44,397 --> 00:55:45,577
You could argue it wasn't a moment.

1500
00:55:45,717 --> 00:55:46,157
I think it was a moment.

1501
00:55:46,157 --> 00:55:46,917
I can already predict.

1502
00:55:46,917 --> 00:55:48,237
Yeah, that moment happened before your prediction.

1503
00:55:48,977 --> 00:55:49,837
Here's my prediction,

1504
00:55:50,037 --> 00:55:52,017
that AI will say you're correct on that

1505
00:55:52,017 --> 00:55:53,637
in one year from now.

1506
00:55:53,757 --> 00:55:54,817
But I think we should be able to look back.

1507
00:55:54,817 --> 00:55:55,837
What a great prediction, DK.

1508
00:55:55,937 --> 00:55:56,437
Let's discuss.

1509
00:55:56,777 --> 00:55:57,877
We got to look back and be like,

1510
00:55:58,077 --> 00:55:59,397
oh, that was obviously,

1511
00:55:59,637 --> 00:56:00,577
that was the one.

1512
00:56:00,777 --> 00:56:01,337
That thing killed it.

1513
00:56:01,337 --> 00:56:02,777
I understand the spirit of what you're saying.

1514
00:56:02,777 --> 00:56:02,897
Yeah.

1515
00:56:03,097 --> 00:56:04,377
And you could probably quantify it

1516
00:56:04,377 --> 00:56:06,217
by saying there's like a lot of users.

1517
00:56:06,657 --> 00:56:07,417
I don't know how many you want to say,

1518
00:56:07,457 --> 00:56:08,017
tens of thousands, tens of thousands.

1519
00:56:08,017 --> 00:56:09,117
A lot of users, a lot of revenue,

1520
00:56:09,477 --> 00:56:10,717
you know, some sort of big moment

1521
00:56:10,717 --> 00:56:11,317
where like, wow,

1522
00:56:11,377 --> 00:56:12,757
that's the guy who made the thing

1523
00:56:12,757 --> 00:56:14,057
that made the money that, wow,

1524
00:56:14,477 --> 00:56:16,037
you can actually vibe code things

1525
00:56:16,037 --> 00:56:16,417
with Bitcoin

1526
00:56:16,417 --> 00:56:16,817
and make money.

1527
00:56:16,817 --> 00:56:17,257
Excellent description.

1528
00:56:17,437 --> 00:56:17,757
Wow.

1529
00:56:18,297 --> 00:56:18,677
How about

1530
00:56:18,677 --> 00:56:20,677
there's a Wikipedia page

1531
00:56:20,677 --> 00:56:21,557
for it?

1532
00:56:21,717 --> 00:56:22,537
Is that a good one?

1533
00:56:23,057 --> 00:56:23,297
Okay.

1534
00:56:23,877 --> 00:56:24,037
Yeah.

1535
00:56:24,397 --> 00:56:26,117
So that kind of like,

1536
00:56:26,257 --> 00:56:27,057
I don't know too many things

1537
00:56:27,057 --> 00:56:28,017
to get their own Wikipedia page.

1538
00:56:28,117 --> 00:56:28,557
One would be like

1539
00:56:28,557 --> 00:56:29,517
the million dollar homepage.

1540
00:56:29,677 --> 00:56:30,177
You all remember that?

1541
00:56:30,277 --> 00:56:30,337
Yeah.

1542
00:56:30,437 --> 00:56:31,577
Something at that level?

1543
00:56:32,297 --> 00:56:33,057
I mean, yeah.

1544
00:56:33,117 --> 00:56:34,997
I'd say the Wikipedia page

1545
00:56:34,997 --> 00:56:36,637
comes once it has

1546
00:56:36,637 --> 00:56:37,477
so much notoriety

1547
00:56:37,477 --> 00:56:38,297
and so much durability.

1548
00:56:38,597 --> 00:56:39,137
So I don't know

1549
00:56:39,137 --> 00:56:39,597
if I'd say

1550
00:56:39,597 --> 00:56:40,897
the Wikipedia page arrives.

1551
00:56:41,057 --> 00:56:41,677
Like does 2Serminal

1552
00:56:41,677 --> 00:56:42,617
have a Wikipedia page?

1553
00:56:42,737 --> 00:56:42,857
Maybe.

1554
00:56:43,317 --> 00:56:43,737
Probably, yeah.

1555
00:56:43,917 --> 00:56:45,017
So something in that scale.

1556
00:56:45,437 --> 00:56:45,877
You know, it's not

1557
00:56:46,037 --> 00:56:49,357
It's not like Facebook or something, you know, but it's not a moment.

1558
00:56:51,797 --> 00:56:52,317
That's one.

1559
00:56:52,457 --> 00:56:54,137
Did you want to share one or should I give you another?

1560
00:56:54,377 --> 00:56:55,517
I'm going to be a listener.

1561
00:56:55,837 --> 00:56:55,957
Okay.

1562
00:56:56,177 --> 00:56:57,417
You roll yours through and then I got mine.

1563
00:56:57,517 --> 00:56:57,657
Okay.

1564
00:56:58,437 --> 00:57:06,177
So somewhat related to our human Bitcoin addresses discussion from last week.

1565
00:57:06,257 --> 00:57:07,257
Are you going to relitigate that?

1566
00:57:07,257 --> 00:57:17,437
No, because I think Steve's takeaway was DK and Max don't care about privacy or security or any Bitcoin principles.

1567
00:57:17,557 --> 00:57:19,817
DK and Max don't care about that.

1568
00:57:19,977 --> 00:57:21,057
Wild traded heathens.

1569
00:57:21,197 --> 00:57:22,757
Well, trader and alligator heathens.

1570
00:57:23,357 --> 00:57:24,197
There's levels.

1571
00:57:24,197 --> 00:57:34,457
But I think like, so my next prediction is that it's very abstract, but it's that some new naming convention finally gets reasonable consensus and traction.

1572
00:57:34,457 --> 00:58:02,617
And I think human Bitcoin addresses, Bit353 is a great candidate. We've seen like UMA from Spark and Spaces Protocol. And there's a bunch of things. And I could see several of these things coexisting in the future. But I think we'll see some new type of, you know, new meaning something that is not yet widespread today will become pretty much a standard within 2026. People are like, yeah, that's the one we use.

1573
00:58:02,617 --> 00:58:03,657
Anchored to Bitcoin or no?

1574
00:58:06,217 --> 00:58:07,457
You may have insider info.

1575
00:58:07,937 --> 00:58:08,477
No, no.

1576
00:58:08,777 --> 00:58:10,937
I'm not going to say anchored to Bitcoin.

1577
00:58:11,257 --> 00:58:15,877
I'm just going to say useful for Bitcoin addresses.

1578
00:58:16,197 --> 00:58:16,317
Okay.

1579
00:58:16,677 --> 00:58:16,877
Yeah.

1580
00:58:17,137 --> 00:58:17,737
What's your last one?

1581
00:58:18,957 --> 00:58:20,277
Well, four-year cycle's dead.

1582
00:58:21,817 --> 00:58:23,077
2026 times higher.

1583
00:58:24,777 --> 00:58:25,697
It's not a real thing.

1584
00:58:25,817 --> 00:58:26,557
The sun will come up.

1585
00:58:27,157 --> 00:58:27,517
All right.

1586
00:58:27,577 --> 00:58:28,237
I got a bunch.

1587
00:58:28,477 --> 00:58:28,997
Shall we roll?

1588
00:58:28,997 --> 00:58:29,777
Shall we rock?

1589
00:58:29,777 --> 00:58:33,237
to start this one

1590
00:58:33,237 --> 00:58:33,777
I wasn't sure

1591
00:58:33,777 --> 00:58:34,477
I asked AI

1592
00:58:34,477 --> 00:58:35,117
but if you guys

1593
00:58:35,117 --> 00:58:35,457
had to guess

1594
00:58:35,457 --> 00:58:35,957
how many lightning

1595
00:58:35,957 --> 00:58:37,697
how many let's say

1596
00:58:37,697 --> 00:58:38,457
monthly active

1597
00:58:38,457 --> 00:58:39,097
lightning network

1598
00:58:39,097 --> 00:58:39,797
users are there

1599
00:58:39,797 --> 00:58:40,497
to guess

1600
00:58:40,497 --> 00:58:41,377
lightning network

1601
00:58:41,377 --> 00:58:42,157
users meaning

1602
00:58:42,157 --> 00:58:42,597
somebody who

1603
00:58:42,597 --> 00:58:43,697
sends or receives

1604
00:58:43,697 --> 00:58:43,977
a payment

1605
00:58:43,977 --> 00:58:45,957
is that knowable

1606
00:58:45,957 --> 00:58:46,957
no it's not

1607
00:58:46,957 --> 00:58:47,617
so I

1608
00:58:47,617 --> 00:58:49,057
we're just guessing

1609
00:58:49,057 --> 00:58:49,857
let's each come

1610
00:58:49,857 --> 00:58:50,277
over to remember

1611
00:58:50,277 --> 00:58:51,237
before we say it

1612
00:58:51,237 --> 00:58:52,297
give me a moment

1613
00:58:52,297 --> 00:58:54,497
Steve's checking

1614
00:58:54,497 --> 00:58:55,317
the news fear

1615
00:58:55,317 --> 00:58:57,857
the Akashic records

1616
00:58:57,857 --> 00:58:58,817
monthly

1617
00:58:58,817 --> 00:58:59,057
monthly

1618
00:58:59,777 --> 00:59:06,337
monthly send to receive if you want to do daily or weekly no it's not um

1619
00:59:06,337 --> 00:59:13,357
okay i have a number yeah you guys have a number yeah this is monthly activity yeah 75 000.

1620
00:59:13,877 --> 00:59:20,557
you think it's that low wow it was yours i was 100 i was a million hundred thousand how did you get

1621
00:59:20,557 --> 00:59:26,897
to a million well i just think about just be more bullish yes i mean think about anyone that does

1622
00:59:26,897 --> 00:59:29,017
a payment in or out from an exchange

1623
00:59:29,017 --> 00:59:31,057
like River, Coinbase, anyone that's

1624
00:59:31,057 --> 00:59:32,877
using, I mean, Cash App.

1625
00:59:33,237 --> 00:59:34,777
I know you guys have people

1626
00:59:34,777 --> 00:59:35,337
withdrawing.

1627
00:59:36,437 --> 00:59:37,457
Like how many

1628
00:59:37,457 --> 00:59:40,777
I'm not going to be able to answer this, but how many

1629
00:59:40,777 --> 00:59:42,537
Cash App users do you think

1630
00:59:42,537 --> 00:59:44,637
are monthly active Lightning users?

1631
00:59:44,957 --> 00:59:46,757
I thought it was six figures, but apparently not.

1632
00:59:47,517 --> 00:59:48,557
If yours was six figures.

1633
00:59:48,557 --> 00:59:49,157
Steve blinked twice.

1634
00:59:50,517 --> 00:59:52,657
Alright, well, why don't we say

1635
00:59:52,657 --> 00:59:54,557
$100,000 as like

1636
00:59:54,557 --> 00:59:56,437
something around there.

1637
00:59:56,897 --> 01:00:07,777
So my first prediction, even though we're just making that up, is that we're going to have at least an order of magnitude more users, monthly active Lightning Network users, probably more than that.

1638
01:00:08,257 --> 01:00:13,557
And specifically, the vast majority of them are going to come from Cash App.

1639
01:00:14,117 --> 01:00:15,757
And I think we're going to see the narrative play out.

1640
01:00:15,817 --> 01:00:22,057
I think maybe it was Matt who gave me this idea, so I'll give a shout out to Matt Belez, that we're going to see, accept Lightning to let Cash App users pay.

1641
01:00:22,317 --> 01:00:23,317
That's going to be a narrative.

1642
01:00:23,317 --> 01:00:26,717
If you want to let Cash App users pay with no fees, use Lightning.

1643
01:00:26,897 --> 01:00:30,977
And so I think we'll go, if it's 100,000, I think we'll go to at least a million, probably more.

1644
01:00:31,217 --> 01:00:32,657
And the majority will be from cash out.

1645
01:00:32,837 --> 01:00:35,037
So Nick says 20,000.

1646
01:00:35,697 --> 01:00:36,517
That low?

1647
01:00:36,957 --> 01:00:38,457
Nick, just to confirm.

1648
01:00:38,797 --> 01:00:39,537
Is that monthly actives?

1649
01:00:40,857 --> 01:00:43,497
I'm curious, actually, Nick's take on this.

1650
01:00:44,757 --> 01:00:48,317
How many monthly active Lightning users are today?

1651
01:00:48,517 --> 01:00:49,317
Yeah, how do you think, Nick?

1652
01:00:50,037 --> 01:00:53,597
And then while we're waiting for that, I would want to point out Deanna's prediction

1653
01:00:53,597 --> 01:00:56,137
that there will be over 100 episodes of PBGA

1654
01:00:56,137 --> 01:00:57,057
by the end of 2020.

1655
01:00:57,537 --> 01:00:58,717
Oh, so that is Nick's,

1656
01:00:58,777 --> 01:01:00,177
so 20,000 is his number.

1657
01:01:00,377 --> 01:01:00,597
Wow.

1658
01:01:00,777 --> 01:01:00,957
Okay.

1659
01:01:01,357 --> 01:01:03,217
So let's say at least an order of magnitude,

1660
01:01:03,517 --> 01:01:04,497
I'll just say a million.

1661
01:01:04,757 --> 01:01:06,297
I think we get to at least a million people

1662
01:01:06,297 --> 01:01:08,517
using Lightning Monthly Active.

1663
01:01:08,517 --> 01:01:09,777
I actually think it's going to be more than that.

1664
01:01:10,217 --> 01:01:11,877
And I think the majority are going to be for cash.

1665
01:01:12,717 --> 01:01:14,797
So are they going to be online or offline?

1666
01:01:16,197 --> 01:01:16,597
What do you mean?

1667
01:01:16,837 --> 01:01:19,657
Meaning is it going to be people using like a vibe-coded app?

1668
01:01:19,737 --> 01:01:20,137
Either way.

1669
01:01:20,637 --> 01:01:22,717
I count going to a square terminal as part of it.

1670
01:01:23,017 --> 01:01:23,497
All of the above.

1671
01:01:23,497 --> 01:01:25,157
But I'm saying if you had to sort of break it down,

1672
01:01:25,277 --> 01:01:26,797
is it mostly coming from one or the other?

1673
01:01:26,857 --> 01:01:28,077
Because there's a lot of growth in there, right?

1674
01:01:28,137 --> 01:01:29,857
I think there's going to be a lot of growth first

1675
01:01:29,857 --> 01:01:31,137
on the in-person stuff

1676
01:01:31,137 --> 01:01:33,077
from all the things we're doing and Swear is doing.

1677
01:01:33,177 --> 01:01:35,257
And then I think that's going to get people using it,

1678
01:01:35,297 --> 01:01:36,737
which is going to open up other experiences.

1679
01:01:36,837 --> 01:01:37,957
And I'll get to a few of what I think

1680
01:01:37,957 --> 01:01:38,937
those experiences are going to be.

1681
01:01:39,057 --> 01:01:40,497
But in general, I'm going to say

1682
01:01:40,497 --> 01:01:43,957
at least a million monthly active users

1683
01:01:43,957 --> 01:01:45,297
on the Lighting Network,

1684
01:01:45,457 --> 01:01:46,957
the majority of whom are using cash.

1685
01:01:47,977 --> 01:01:50,997
So first, I like the prediction.

1686
01:01:51,997 --> 01:01:53,357
I agree with the million.

1687
01:01:53,497 --> 01:01:55,737
I don't agree with the majority

1688
01:01:55,737 --> 01:01:57,657
he says he meant daily 100k

1689
01:01:57,657 --> 01:01:58,177
monthly

1690
01:01:58,177 --> 01:02:01,737
DK, Nick and I are

1691
01:02:01,737 --> 01:02:03,777
all I mean I said 75

1692
01:02:03,777 --> 01:02:04,477
100k

1693
01:02:04,477 --> 01:02:07,977
I continue to be too bullish

1694
01:02:07,977 --> 01:02:09,057
or not

1695
01:02:09,057 --> 01:02:11,857
I think Cash App will see tremendous growth

1696
01:02:11,857 --> 01:02:13,777
I don't think it'll be the majority of the million

1697
01:02:13,777 --> 01:02:15,677
I mean think of all the

1698
01:02:15,677 --> 01:02:17,057
new Spark enabled wallets

1699
01:02:17,057 --> 01:02:19,897
Wallet of Toshoshi already has a lot of users

1700
01:02:19,897 --> 01:02:21,697
I think they'll

1701
01:02:21,697 --> 01:02:22,297
They'll grow.

1702
01:02:22,417 --> 01:02:23,497
So that makes me even more bullish.

1703
01:02:23,977 --> 01:02:24,157
Yeah.

1704
01:02:24,437 --> 01:02:26,797
So I think Cash App won't be the majority.

1705
01:02:27,017 --> 01:02:27,857
I think it's even the majority.

1706
01:02:28,137 --> 01:02:30,217
And if it's not, I will be thrilled

1707
01:02:30,217 --> 01:02:32,157
because I think Cash App is still going to lead the way.

1708
01:02:32,257 --> 01:02:33,437
So even if it's not the majority,

1709
01:02:33,517 --> 01:02:34,637
I think it'll be the plurality.

1710
01:02:35,077 --> 01:02:36,017
And if it's not the majority,

1711
01:02:36,117 --> 01:02:37,117
then that makes me more bullish.

1712
01:02:37,437 --> 01:02:39,037
So I would love to have that be the case.

1713
01:02:39,157 --> 01:02:40,117
Okay, so that's my first prediction.

1714
01:02:40,337 --> 01:02:40,517
Good.

1715
01:02:40,717 --> 01:02:41,477
My second prediction,

1716
01:02:41,997 --> 01:02:43,257
and you're going to love this one.

1717
01:02:43,337 --> 01:02:44,657
I swear I didn't plan this.

1718
01:02:45,657 --> 01:02:48,317
MDK specifically is going to get major adoption

1719
01:02:48,317 --> 01:02:50,477
and power, I'm going to say,

1720
01:02:50,477 --> 01:02:52,617
tens of thousands of new apps, at least,

1721
01:02:53,257 --> 01:02:54,017
five-coded apps.

1722
01:02:54,557 --> 01:02:57,837
I think specifically, MDK is going to be

1723
01:02:57,837 --> 01:03:00,377
the most popular way to add payments on Repplet,

1724
01:03:00,717 --> 01:03:03,617
so much so that Omjad and Co. are going to notice

1725
01:03:03,617 --> 01:03:06,537
and either in some way, shape, or fashion,

1726
01:03:06,617 --> 01:03:07,857
I'm not going to predict how they're going to do it,

1727
01:03:08,097 --> 01:03:09,857
try and add Bitcoin payments in themselves

1728
01:03:09,857 --> 01:03:10,957
once they see the success.

1729
01:03:12,597 --> 01:03:13,177
Love it.

1730
01:03:13,537 --> 01:03:15,317
Tens of thousands is aggressive.

1731
01:03:15,717 --> 01:03:17,277
I think it's possible.

1732
01:03:17,577 --> 01:03:19,497
Very aggressive, but I love the direction

1733
01:03:19,497 --> 01:03:20,377
of that prediction.

1734
01:03:20,477 --> 01:03:21,437
I love it directionally.

1735
01:03:21,497 --> 01:03:24,057
I think it's going to be hard for any platform.

1736
01:03:24,637 --> 01:03:25,557
Yes, I am.

1737
01:03:25,577 --> 01:03:26,257
As Matthew says,

1738
01:03:26,397 --> 01:03:27,537
break my own bags will pump.

1739
01:03:27,837 --> 01:03:29,037
I am manifesting.

1740
01:03:29,557 --> 01:03:30,957
I will continue to do that.

1741
01:03:31,377 --> 01:03:32,237
But I also believe.

1742
01:03:32,777 --> 01:03:34,117
I'm an investor because I believe.

1743
01:03:34,277 --> 01:03:35,357
So, all right.

1744
01:03:35,397 --> 01:03:36,437
So that's my second one.

1745
01:03:38,497 --> 01:03:39,317
Number three,

1746
01:03:39,797 --> 01:03:42,597
I think we're going to see the first site

1747
01:03:42,597 --> 01:03:47,437
where a demonstration of the thesis

1748
01:03:47,437 --> 01:03:48,857
that you monetize energy

1749
01:03:48,857 --> 01:03:50,337
in whatever way it pays the most.

1750
01:03:50,477 --> 01:03:56,917
And so I think we're going to see the first site that's explicitly designed with both GPUs for inference and ASICs for mining.

1751
01:03:56,917 --> 01:04:03,577
And the first example of real-time electrons moving between the two based on whichever will pay more.

1752
01:04:06,397 --> 01:04:07,217
Say that again?

1753
01:04:07,677 --> 01:04:16,077
We're going to see the first example of a site where someone builds a site specifically with both GPUs to offer AI inference and ASICs to offer Bitcoin mining.

1754
01:04:16,077 --> 01:04:18,057
and in real time shows

1755
01:04:18,057 --> 01:04:19,817
they basically have software deciding

1756
01:04:19,817 --> 01:04:21,417
the electron goes one way or the other

1757
01:04:21,417 --> 01:04:22,617
based on whichever will pay more.

1758
01:04:23,437 --> 01:04:24,797
Between ASICs and GPUs?

1759
01:04:24,817 --> 01:04:24,977
Yes.

1760
01:04:25,037 --> 01:04:26,817
Or like inference workloads?

1761
01:04:26,997 --> 01:04:27,197
Yes.

1762
01:04:28,737 --> 01:04:28,977
Okay.

1763
01:04:30,057 --> 01:04:30,497
Why?

1764
01:04:31,277 --> 01:04:32,377
I'm not sure I understand

1765
01:04:32,377 --> 01:04:34,177
the spirit of what it's trying to communicate.

1766
01:04:34,577 --> 01:04:36,637
So this is part of a much longer conversation.

1767
01:04:36,837 --> 01:04:38,197
Tune in next year to Ideas from the Edge.

1768
01:04:38,197 --> 01:04:39,337
Got to give a shout out to my guys,

1769
01:04:39,417 --> 01:04:42,157
Tomas and Ocampo and John Comcov.

1770
01:04:42,257 --> 01:04:44,417
But I think the biggest story of the 21st century

1771
01:04:44,417 --> 01:04:47,456
is the commodification of labor and capital

1772
01:04:47,456 --> 01:04:49,456
and that it's all photons and electricity

1773
01:04:49,456 --> 01:04:50,117
at the end of the day.

1774
01:04:50,557 --> 01:04:52,777
And so I think the big story is that

1775
01:04:52,777 --> 01:04:53,357
for the first time,

1776
01:04:53,417 --> 01:04:55,217
you're going to have fungible markets for labor,

1777
01:04:55,537 --> 01:04:56,837
which is compute now,

1778
01:04:57,037 --> 01:04:58,436
and capital, which is Bitcoin.

1779
01:04:58,917 --> 01:05:00,897
And the sort of like the hurdle rate

1780
01:05:00,897 --> 01:05:02,397
you have to clear to get labor

1781
01:05:02,397 --> 01:05:05,897
is what you're being paid from the Bitcoin network,

1782
01:05:05,997 --> 01:05:07,497
which is the capital rate.

1783
01:05:08,197 --> 01:05:10,517
But if I understand correctly,

1784
01:05:10,517 --> 01:05:14,797
if you buy a bunch of mining equipment,

1785
01:05:15,097 --> 01:05:17,517
you want full utilization.

1786
01:05:17,617 --> 01:05:18,097
Not necessarily.

1787
01:05:19,097 --> 01:05:22,257
You may have, as we talked about in 2021 in the paper,

1788
01:05:22,397 --> 01:05:23,377
I think this is finally going to happen,

1789
01:05:23,936 --> 01:05:25,436
depreciate ASICs on-site

1790
01:05:25,436 --> 01:05:27,517
where you could just back and forth route.

1791
01:05:27,917 --> 01:05:29,977
Okay, when you say between GPUs and ASICs,

1792
01:05:29,977 --> 01:05:32,697
GPUs for AI workloads and ASICs for Bitcoin mining,

1793
01:05:32,837 --> 01:05:34,997
not ASICs for AI workloads.

1794
01:05:35,537 --> 01:05:36,577
Okay, that's what I was trying to clarify.

1795
01:05:38,397 --> 01:05:40,097
Physically co-located,

1796
01:05:40,097 --> 01:05:41,417
that you can route between them

1797
01:05:41,417 --> 01:05:43,297
specifically designed for this purpose.

1798
01:05:44,397 --> 01:05:46,497
I think it's gonna be tough with the,

1799
01:05:46,977 --> 01:05:49,577
you know, Bitcoin mining is very,

1800
01:05:49,956 --> 01:05:52,637
in a sense, like practical mercenaries.

1801
01:05:52,817 --> 01:05:53,817
Like, what do I put in

1802
01:05:53,817 --> 01:05:54,857
and what do I get out today?

1803
01:05:55,997 --> 01:05:58,737
GPU and inference is all about like,

1804
01:05:59,537 --> 01:06:01,317
well, it's serving something today,

1805
01:06:01,417 --> 01:06:02,297
but it's serving something

1806
01:06:02,297 --> 01:06:03,877
to try to gather market share

1807
01:06:03,877 --> 01:06:05,517
from somebody else in the future.

1808
01:06:05,637 --> 01:06:06,497
And different people can have

1809
01:06:06,497 --> 01:06:08,397
10 year timeframe on when they need

1810
01:06:08,397 --> 01:06:10,297
to sort of recoup all that.

1811
01:06:10,837 --> 01:06:16,277
So I'm cautious about being so easy to switch

1812
01:06:16,277 --> 01:06:17,177
from one to the other.

1813
01:06:17,297 --> 01:06:17,436
Cool.

1814
01:06:17,637 --> 01:06:18,857
I'm pretty confident on this one.

1815
01:06:18,857 --> 01:06:19,037
Yeah.

1816
01:06:19,436 --> 01:06:19,637
All right.

1817
01:06:19,637 --> 01:06:19,956
All right.

1818
01:06:20,157 --> 01:06:20,637
Hold on.

1819
01:06:21,017 --> 01:06:24,217
I absolutely believe in a future

1820
01:06:24,217 --> 01:06:29,757
where there'll be discounted an older generation

1821
01:06:29,757 --> 01:06:31,597
of ASICs for Bitcoin mining

1822
01:06:31,597 --> 01:06:34,757
that are not energy efficient anymore

1823
01:06:34,757 --> 01:06:36,657
relative to their competition.

1824
01:06:37,317 --> 01:06:42,717
So big farms paying four, six, eight cents for electricity

1825
01:06:42,717 --> 01:06:44,977
literally would just take them offline

1826
01:06:44,977 --> 01:06:45,817
because they're not profitable.

1827
01:06:46,677 --> 01:06:48,017
And then if there's no market for them,

1828
01:06:48,097 --> 01:06:51,377
they're literally priced at zero or maybe even negative

1829
01:06:51,377 --> 01:06:52,257
because you have to get rid of that.

1830
01:06:53,277 --> 01:06:55,537
And then if you have renewable energy

1831
01:06:55,537 --> 01:06:58,657
where your energy is zero or negative,

1832
01:06:59,137 --> 01:07:02,137
you're happy to take zero or negatively priced equipment.

1833
01:07:02,917 --> 01:07:05,637
And even if you only get to run it 20% of the time,

1834
01:07:05,717 --> 01:07:06,237
you're profiting.

1835
01:07:06,657 --> 01:07:07,757
I totally believe in that.

1836
01:07:08,557 --> 01:07:10,557
But I'm not sure I understand a vision

1837
01:07:10,557 --> 01:07:14,657
where I buy this old equipment.

1838
01:07:15,657 --> 01:07:19,577
I also buy all these GPUs or TPUs or whatever.

1839
01:07:21,677 --> 01:07:24,417
And then I have energy available 100% of the time.

1840
01:07:25,637 --> 01:07:27,777
Why wouldn't I just buy the AI stuff

1841
01:07:27,777 --> 01:07:29,637
and run that 100% of the time?

1842
01:07:29,637 --> 01:07:31,737
What advantage am I getting by buying?

1843
01:07:32,137 --> 01:07:35,577
For one, you may be limited on how many chips you can get.

1844
01:07:35,577 --> 01:07:37,977
You might be using old NVIDIA chips as well.

1845
01:07:38,456 --> 01:07:40,097
And this might allow you to overbuild

1846
01:07:40,097 --> 01:07:41,177
and build something much bigger

1847
01:07:41,177 --> 01:07:43,097
that you were otherwise going to be able to.

1848
01:07:43,637 --> 01:07:45,456
I think it's going to be tough to overbuild in AI.

1849
01:07:46,177 --> 01:07:46,717
We'll see.

1850
01:07:46,857 --> 01:07:47,297
In the near term.

1851
01:07:47,397 --> 01:07:48,217
Okay. All right.

1852
01:07:48,817 --> 01:07:51,436
So we like all your predictions except for that one,

1853
01:07:51,497 --> 01:07:51,877
but it's good.

1854
01:07:51,897 --> 01:07:53,897
It's good for predictions to be debatable.

1855
01:07:54,377 --> 01:07:55,477
It's good to be debatable.

1856
01:07:56,417 --> 01:07:57,577
The next one is...

1857
01:07:58,436 --> 01:07:59,517
Worthy of debate.

1858
01:07:59,617 --> 01:08:00,977
These two are kind of related,

1859
01:08:01,157 --> 01:08:02,837
so I'll bring them one at a time.

1860
01:08:02,936 --> 01:08:03,577
The next one is,

1861
01:08:03,577 --> 01:08:09,557
I think we're going to see the first agent-to-agent payment without a human in the loop.

1862
01:08:09,637 --> 01:08:12,657
Now, you can debate what that means because I don't think it's going to be fully autonomous.

1863
01:08:13,077 --> 01:08:16,316
Maybe the agent is still running on a system like AWS that could be unplugged.

1864
01:08:16,557 --> 01:08:18,917
I think you're going to see the first agent pay another agent in Bitcoin.

1865
01:08:19,417 --> 01:08:24,557
And that you could create a toy example today, but you're talking about something more than a toy?

1866
01:08:24,896 --> 01:08:26,277
No, I think a toy would count.

1867
01:08:28,577 --> 01:08:32,337
Related to that, I think we're going to see the first example of AI evolution

1868
01:08:32,337 --> 01:08:34,837
where Bitcoin is the price signal

1869
01:08:34,837 --> 01:08:36,957
or is the like reward function.

1870
01:08:38,117 --> 01:08:40,816
So like an agent evolves

1871
01:08:40,816 --> 01:08:43,497
its own code or activity

1872
01:08:43,497 --> 01:08:46,977
based on trying multiple things

1873
01:08:46,977 --> 01:08:49,337
and going with the one that receives the most zaps.

1874
01:08:51,977 --> 01:08:53,737
Yeah, I'm still trying to like

1875
01:08:53,737 --> 01:08:55,097
make this concrete in my mind.

1876
01:08:55,297 --> 01:08:56,237
Is it, do you have like,

1877
01:08:56,337 --> 01:08:57,816
is there like an example application

1878
01:08:57,816 --> 01:08:59,177
that you can walk us through?

1879
01:08:59,597 --> 01:09:00,957
I don't want to say too much,

1880
01:09:00,957 --> 01:09:06,237
but like imagine there was like a meme generator on NOS and it had, you know, whatever, like a

1881
01:09:06,237 --> 01:09:10,557
certain flavor of memes it's generating. And it ran, I don't know, like two examples, like one

1882
01:09:10,557 --> 01:09:17,737
that's more like PC, one that's not. And it like develops along a path based on which of those

1883
01:09:17,737 --> 01:09:23,637
gets the most apps. So it develops, meaning it generates new images along that meme.

1884
01:09:23,637 --> 01:09:28,637
Like a new version of itself. It's like, okay, the next one now we see, you know, it's like the

1885
01:09:28,637 --> 01:09:32,816
meme that gets the most is like i don't know the african child or the guy looking back so we're

1886
01:09:32,816 --> 01:09:41,856
really focusing on that okay what else you got is ai going to be able to evaluate these things

1887
01:09:41,856 --> 01:09:52,577
the next one is um while we're on the subject on mdk once we're since we're on the ai topic

1888
01:09:52,577 --> 01:09:57,537
i think that's probably a little too early for this to happen by itself but i think you're going

1889
01:09:57,537 --> 01:09:59,177
to see the first toy example

1890
01:09:59,177 --> 01:10:00,816
that gets the conversation going

1891
01:10:00,816 --> 01:10:02,837
around the idea of a sovereign AI

1892
01:10:02,837 --> 01:10:04,316
as the future business entity,

1893
01:10:04,557 --> 01:10:06,577
like beyond C-corporations or LLCs.

1894
01:10:07,377 --> 01:10:08,197
So that would be something

1895
01:10:08,197 --> 01:10:09,077
like what we talked about

1896
01:10:09,077 --> 01:10:12,377
with the, what do you call it,

1897
01:10:12,396 --> 01:10:13,537
the Maple AI guys.

1898
01:10:14,137 --> 01:10:17,377
Some toy wins enough

1899
01:10:17,377 --> 01:10:18,017
that people say,

1900
01:10:18,157 --> 01:10:19,537
oh, people start talking

1901
01:10:19,537 --> 01:10:20,597
about this idea that like

1902
01:10:20,597 --> 01:10:22,417
AI agents with their own

1903
01:10:22,417 --> 01:10:23,396
reward function

1904
01:10:23,396 --> 01:10:24,917
is the new business entity

1905
01:10:24,917 --> 01:10:26,457
beyond C-corps and LLCs.

1906
01:10:26,457 --> 01:10:27,277
Mm-hmm.

1907
01:10:27,537 --> 01:10:32,457
Okay. I think at least one...

1908
01:10:32,457 --> 01:10:40,557
I like that one, by the way. I think that's contained enough. It could be simple early examples. I feel like I'm into that.

1909
01:10:40,557 --> 01:10:42,396
Okay, here's my next one.

1910
01:10:42,537 --> 01:10:44,557
I don't know how to quantify this one exactly,

1911
01:10:44,737 --> 01:10:45,837
so maybe you guys have ideas.

1912
01:10:46,537 --> 01:10:50,077
But I think Bhutan is going to emerge

1913
01:10:50,077 --> 01:10:53,777
as the clear big winner from Bitcoin,

1914
01:10:54,597 --> 01:10:56,977
or at least an example of what is...

1915
01:10:56,977 --> 01:10:58,356
El Salvador has kind of been that so far.

1916
01:10:58,417 --> 01:11:00,356
I think Bhutan becomes the country

1917
01:11:00,356 --> 01:11:02,777
that's clearly gaining the most from Bitcoin

1918
01:11:02,777 --> 01:11:04,816
and continues in its march

1919
01:11:04,816 --> 01:11:06,597
of becoming its own version of a Singapore.

1920
01:11:07,977 --> 01:11:08,917
Yeah, I like that one.

1921
01:11:08,917 --> 01:11:10,717
And I actually, I mean, El Salvador.

1922
01:11:10,717 --> 01:11:11,677
It's related to this news, right?

1923
01:11:12,037 --> 01:11:13,277
Somewhat related to the news.

1924
01:11:13,337 --> 01:11:20,257
It's related to this news, but it's been, I feel like El Salvador has had, within the Bitcoin community, at least 100x the awareness.

1925
01:11:20,657 --> 01:11:31,535
Yes But Bhutan has had 100x the actual substance and results And so I think that starts flipping in 26 And why is the discrepancy between the awareness versus results Because what

1926
01:11:32,535 --> 01:11:37,315
Well, Bhutan has accumulated a ton of Bitcoin through hydro mining.

1927
01:11:37,475 --> 01:11:39,015
So it's like clean energy mining.

1928
01:11:39,435 --> 01:11:40,655
They've been doing it for years.

1929
01:11:41,555 --> 01:11:42,775
They've been purposely doing it kind of on the video.

1930
01:11:42,775 --> 01:11:45,695
El Salvador, they supposedly tapped into a volcano.

1931
01:11:46,035 --> 01:11:46,995
Like, is that real or not?

1932
01:11:47,115 --> 01:11:47,995
It's hard to know.

1933
01:11:48,115 --> 01:11:50,335
And even if they have, I think it's a token amount.

1934
01:11:50,675 --> 01:11:52,115
where Bhutan has like,

1935
01:11:52,495 --> 01:11:54,575
the amount of Bitcoin they've accumulated

1936
01:11:54,575 --> 01:11:57,635
is like more than their entire treasury.

1937
01:11:58,175 --> 01:11:58,495
Like it's like-

1938
01:11:58,495 --> 01:11:59,475
It's 40% of the GDP.

1939
01:11:59,695 --> 01:12:00,935
Yeah, it's 40% of the GDP.

1940
01:12:01,135 --> 01:12:01,416
It's huge.

1941
01:12:01,575 --> 01:12:02,315
It's like massive.

1942
01:12:02,735 --> 01:12:03,235
So they have like,

1943
01:12:03,275 --> 01:12:04,235
I think it's like 1100,

1944
01:12:04,355 --> 01:12:05,175
like something real.

1945
01:12:05,275 --> 01:12:06,595
I mean, they're donating a billion dollars

1946
01:12:06,595 --> 01:12:08,575
to their like mindfulness initiative.

1947
01:12:08,575 --> 01:12:09,416
So isn't that-

1948
01:12:09,416 --> 01:12:11,235
Aren't they the ones who say they measure-

1949
01:12:11,235 --> 01:12:12,595
Yeah, invest national happiness.

1950
01:12:12,795 --> 01:12:14,035
They're investing in a city.

1951
01:12:14,255 --> 01:12:14,995
In my understanding,

1952
01:12:15,155 --> 01:12:16,355
I'm not sure 100%,

1953
01:12:16,355 --> 01:12:19,195
but I think they're not actually investing it.

1954
01:12:19,235 --> 01:12:20,075
I need to go deeper on this.

1955
01:12:20,135 --> 01:12:20,535
My understanding is,

1956
01:12:20,535 --> 01:12:21,755
I think they're going to use it as collateral.

1957
01:12:22,535 --> 01:12:23,435
And so I think...

1958
01:12:23,435 --> 01:12:24,615
Yeah, I read that on that article.

1959
01:12:24,855 --> 01:12:26,895
The key idea, another key idea I want to get out of this

1960
01:12:26,895 --> 01:12:29,675
is that more nations are going to look to Bhutan as a model.

1961
01:12:30,335 --> 01:12:31,995
Because Bhutan, one could argue,

1962
01:12:32,135 --> 01:12:33,575
yes, they have the gross national happiness thing.

1963
01:12:33,635 --> 01:12:34,735
They're like a sort of a Buddhist country.

1964
01:12:35,115 --> 01:12:37,635
By everything I've heard, their king is somewhat...

1965
01:12:37,635 --> 01:12:39,955
I mean, he's a king, but sort of like an enlightened king to a degree.

1966
01:12:40,495 --> 01:12:42,795
And so it appears, at least on surface,

1967
01:12:42,876 --> 01:12:44,775
that they're using the winnings from Bitcoin

1968
01:12:44,775 --> 01:12:47,515
to actually improve the lives of the people that live in the country,

1969
01:12:47,615 --> 01:12:49,015
which is really fucking cool to see.

1970
01:12:49,015 --> 01:12:51,855
and one could argue that this could emerge

1971
01:12:51,855 --> 01:12:53,115
like an alternative to like, you know,

1972
01:12:53,355 --> 01:12:54,355
as you have IMF loans,

1973
01:12:54,475 --> 01:12:55,655
like, well, now you see another alternative

1974
01:12:55,655 --> 01:12:57,775
where someone's using a different form of collateral

1975
01:12:57,775 --> 01:12:59,695
outside of the traditional system

1976
01:12:59,695 --> 01:13:00,895
and it appears to be working

1977
01:13:00,895 --> 01:13:02,155
and that's going to get people interested.

1978
01:13:02,275 --> 01:13:03,495
And they're also going to see

1979
01:13:03,495 --> 01:13:05,975
that Bhutan's number one export to the world

1980
01:13:05,975 --> 01:13:07,955
is hash rate, which is a big deal.

1981
01:13:07,955 --> 01:13:10,095
Yeah, I love that prediction.

1982
01:13:10,295 --> 01:13:10,955
I totally agree.

1983
01:13:11,175 --> 01:13:14,535
And I'm a much bigger believer in Bhutan

1984
01:13:14,535 --> 01:13:17,355
becoming what you're saying versus El Salvador.

1985
01:13:17,355 --> 01:13:19,355
what scale

1986
01:13:19,355 --> 01:13:20,395
is Bhutan

1987
01:13:20,395 --> 01:13:21,595
doing hydro

1988
01:13:21,595 --> 01:13:22,075
mining on

1989
01:13:22,075 --> 01:13:22,495
or like what

1990
01:13:22,495 --> 01:13:23,475
have they announced

1991
01:13:23,475 --> 01:13:24,416
this specific number

1992
01:13:24,416 --> 01:13:25,095
for their treasury

1993
01:13:25,095 --> 01:13:25,595
or what they

1994
01:13:25,595 --> 01:13:26,095
I think they have

1995
01:13:26,095 --> 01:13:26,735
I forgot the number

1996
01:13:26,735 --> 01:13:27,275
off the top of my head

1997
01:13:27,275 --> 01:13:27,955
I think they have

1998
01:13:27,955 --> 01:13:29,055
at least 1100 Bitcoin

1999
01:13:29,055 --> 01:13:30,055
I forget the exact number

2000
01:13:30,055 --> 01:13:30,355
is it

2001
01:13:30,355 --> 01:13:30,795
is it

2002
01:13:30,795 --> 01:13:31,935
bigger or smaller

2003
01:13:31,935 --> 01:13:32,975
than El Salvador

2004
01:13:32,975 --> 01:13:33,416
or

2005
01:13:33,416 --> 01:13:34,035
I think it's

2006
01:13:34,035 --> 01:13:34,975
smaller but bigger

2007
01:13:34,975 --> 01:13:35,416
per capita

2008
01:13:35,416 --> 01:13:36,095
because it's a tiny

2009
01:13:36,095 --> 01:13:37,275
is what bigger

2010
01:13:37,275 --> 01:13:37,635
or smaller

2011
01:13:37,635 --> 01:13:38,255
the treasury

2012
01:13:38,255 --> 01:13:39,335
oh

2013
01:13:39,335 --> 01:13:40,475
the Bhutan treasury

2014
01:13:40,475 --> 01:13:41,235
versus El Salvador

2015
01:13:41,235 --> 01:13:42,035
okay

2016
01:13:42,035 --> 01:13:42,435
is it

2017
01:13:42,435 --> 01:13:43,175
does anyone know

2018
01:13:43,175 --> 01:13:44,095
how much El Salvador has

2019
01:13:44,095 --> 01:13:45,355
I know it's way

2020
01:13:45,355 --> 01:13:46,055
bigger per capita

2021
01:13:46,055 --> 01:13:46,715
but

2022
01:13:47,355 --> 01:13:53,195
I think it's anyways, regardless, I think that narrative, let's look at those numbers because I think it's way bigger.

2023
01:13:53,315 --> 01:13:54,575
Absolute and per capita.

2024
01:13:55,435 --> 01:13:55,575
Yeah.

2025
01:13:55,775 --> 01:13:57,295
So anyways, I think that becomes a big deal.

2026
01:13:57,475 --> 01:13:58,555
I just lost my predictions.

2027
01:13:59,135 --> 01:14:00,135
I had a couple more.

2028
01:14:01,275 --> 01:14:01,935
Oh, no.

2029
01:14:02,395 --> 01:14:03,935
Now it's asking me to log in.

2030
01:14:04,755 --> 01:14:06,535
Oh, that's annoying.

2031
01:14:07,475 --> 01:14:09,535
I assume you guys have not ever been to Bhutan.

2032
01:14:10,475 --> 01:14:11,075
Not yet.

2033
01:14:11,175 --> 01:14:11,515
I want to go.

2034
01:14:11,935 --> 01:14:14,895
I've actually, interestingly, it's a place I've wanted to go since childhood.

2035
01:14:14,895 --> 01:14:16,555
as a kid

2036
01:14:16,555 --> 01:14:19,615
my dad took me to the

2037
01:14:19,615 --> 01:14:21,055
trying to do this damn

2038
01:14:21,055 --> 01:14:22,975
everything you got to do with AI now

2039
01:14:22,975 --> 01:14:23,615
this is where I feel like

2040
01:14:23,615 --> 01:14:27,555
I was partially invited to go meet with the king

2041
01:14:27,555 --> 01:14:29,615
to give ideas for what they could do

2042
01:14:29,615 --> 01:14:30,175
with bitcoin

2043
01:14:30,175 --> 01:14:32,615
through someone I know

2044
01:14:32,615 --> 01:14:34,275
that didn't come to fruition

2045
01:14:34,275 --> 01:14:36,755
I would definitely take up

2046
01:14:36,755 --> 01:14:38,155
the invite

2047
01:14:38,155 --> 01:14:39,815
what does a partial invite look like

2048
01:14:39,815 --> 01:14:42,055
come by if you're free

2049
01:14:42,055 --> 01:14:44,015
someone I know who

2050
01:14:44,015 --> 01:14:46,735
who has been to Bhutan and spent weeks with the king

2051
01:14:46,735 --> 01:14:49,495
said that they were going to invite folks

2052
01:14:49,495 --> 01:14:53,095
to come and share ideas.

2053
01:14:54,055 --> 01:14:54,455
Yeah.

2054
01:14:54,975 --> 01:14:55,835
That didn't.

2055
01:14:55,955 --> 01:14:57,115
I don't know if that actually happened

2056
01:14:57,115 --> 01:14:57,815
and I didn't get invited

2057
01:14:57,815 --> 01:14:59,675
or if it has not happened.

2058
01:14:59,675 --> 01:15:00,575
And what is the rough...

2059
01:15:00,575 --> 01:15:01,795
I think I know the fur you're thinking of, too.

2060
01:15:02,155 --> 01:15:03,615
What's the rough population of Bhutan?

2061
01:15:03,695 --> 01:15:04,416
You mentioned it's tiny.

2062
01:15:04,595 --> 01:15:07,376
Is it like it's a million people or 100,000?

2063
01:15:07,376 --> 01:15:07,995
I think it's like 800,000.

2064
01:15:08,255 --> 01:15:08,675
I don't remember.

2065
01:15:08,735 --> 01:15:10,055
It's something in that order.

2066
01:15:10,695 --> 01:15:10,815
Okay.

2067
01:15:11,715 --> 01:15:13,215
So I got my predictions back.

2068
01:15:13,215 --> 01:15:14,715
How many more predictions do you have?

2069
01:15:15,155 --> 01:15:15,675
Three more.

2070
01:15:15,695 --> 01:15:16,095
Steve's getting tired.

2071
01:15:16,095 --> 01:15:16,255
Okay.

2072
01:15:17,395 --> 01:15:20,615
I'm just embarrassed because, like, Max is owning me on predictions.

2073
01:15:21,175 --> 01:15:22,035
Well, just on quantity.

2074
01:15:22,435 --> 01:15:23,095
On quantity.

2075
01:15:23,355 --> 01:15:25,416
As Deanna says, I think she had one on there.

2076
01:15:25,675 --> 01:15:26,535
Well, it's gone now.

2077
01:15:26,635 --> 01:15:31,315
I actually, well, I've given my opinion whether I like or don't like the predictions, but it

2078
01:15:31,315 --> 01:15:32,495
feels like AI slop as well.

2079
01:15:32,615 --> 01:15:34,195
But actually, not actually.

2080
01:15:34,815 --> 01:15:35,975
These are good predictions, homie.

2081
01:15:36,075 --> 01:15:36,655
AI slop.

2082
01:15:36,876 --> 01:15:37,635
No, they are.

2083
01:15:37,695 --> 01:15:38,735
I did use AI to help me with some.

2084
01:15:38,735 --> 01:15:39,335
You use AI.

2085
01:15:39,915 --> 01:15:42,615
But I came up with a lot of my, and this is what I'm saying.

2086
01:15:42,615 --> 01:15:44,575
Google is like, hey, my research partner.

2087
01:15:45,235 --> 01:15:46,735
You don't have to anchor on your intelligence.

2088
01:15:47,355 --> 01:15:49,055
It's plentiful in the universe now.

2089
01:15:49,275 --> 01:15:52,895
The next one is the taste.

2090
01:15:54,055 --> 01:15:55,275
The curation, yeah.

2091
01:15:55,515 --> 01:15:55,995
It'll still wait.

2092
01:15:56,455 --> 01:15:57,215
All right, the next one.

2093
01:15:57,295 --> 01:15:57,395
Ready?

2094
01:15:58,135 --> 01:15:59,895
First, Bitcoin gets mined in space.

2095
01:16:02,395 --> 01:16:04,535
I know the probability of this.

2096
01:16:05,395 --> 01:16:05,775
It's high.

2097
01:16:07,275 --> 01:16:09,415
You know the probability of this.

2098
01:16:09,575 --> 01:16:11,295
You know of an actual project happening.

2099
01:16:11,295 --> 01:16:16,175
The guy in charge of doing this just laid out in an email to me

2100
01:16:16,175 --> 01:16:19,095
the probability of happening in, you're not on this email.

2101
01:16:19,435 --> 01:16:20,175
No, I'm not on this email.

2102
01:16:20,175 --> 01:16:21,035
No, you're not on it.

2103
01:16:23,715 --> 01:16:26,995
Like a Q3, Q4, and Q1 probability.

2104
01:16:27,935 --> 01:16:31,215
Q3, Q4 of 2026, Q1 of 2027.

2105
01:16:31,495 --> 01:16:31,675
Yeah.

2106
01:16:32,155 --> 01:16:32,975
It's going to happen.

2107
01:16:33,376 --> 01:16:33,515
Okay.

2108
01:16:34,715 --> 01:16:35,675
The next one.

2109
01:16:35,795 --> 01:16:37,876
And is that just like a demo?

2110
01:16:38,455 --> 01:16:41,035
Like, hey, we might not like we're going to do this.

2111
01:16:41,035 --> 01:16:42,415
It's an experiment.

2112
01:16:42,855 --> 01:16:43,275
Like what happens

2113
01:16:43,275 --> 01:16:44,235
with the chip in space?

2114
01:16:44,395 --> 01:16:45,315
Because this has been a topic.

2115
01:16:45,455 --> 01:16:46,815
Hasn't like data centers in space

2116
01:16:46,815 --> 01:16:48,055
just kind of blown up as a topic?

2117
01:16:48,195 --> 01:16:49,975
I think each of Elon and Sundar.

2118
01:16:49,975 --> 01:16:50,855
It blew up as a topic

2119
01:16:50,855 --> 01:16:51,995
two days before

2120
01:16:51,995 --> 01:16:53,195
we had already planned

2121
01:16:53,195 --> 01:16:54,735
to have it as a topic of discussion

2122
01:16:54,735 --> 01:16:55,515
at Type 1 Summit.

2123
01:16:55,895 --> 01:16:57,095
I would say it blew up

2124
01:16:57,095 --> 01:16:58,195
at Type 1 Summit.

2125
01:16:58,195 --> 01:16:58,915
Literally the day of.

2126
01:16:58,915 --> 01:17:00,275
It happened.

2127
01:17:00,915 --> 01:17:01,376
Thank you, Max.

2128
01:17:02,215 --> 01:17:03,835
So that one I feel pretty good on.

2129
01:17:04,955 --> 01:17:05,955
The next one,

2130
01:17:06,075 --> 01:17:06,675
the next three,

2131
01:17:06,876 --> 01:17:08,515
this is not exactly a Bitcoin one,

2132
01:17:08,575 --> 01:17:08,995
but fuck it.

2133
01:17:10,055 --> 01:17:10,835
We rad.

2134
01:17:11,035 --> 01:17:13,815
The next one, by the end of 2026,

2135
01:17:14,015 --> 01:17:17,415
Google has by far the best model, AI model,

2136
01:17:17,755 --> 01:17:18,915
and it's clear that Google is winning.

2137
01:17:20,795 --> 01:17:23,655
But it's also clear in the mainstream narrative

2138
01:17:23,655 --> 01:17:26,615
that XAI is by far the leader in the AI race

2139
01:17:26,615 --> 01:17:32,235
because Elon has a monopoly on getting to space

2140
01:17:32,235 --> 01:17:33,815
and everyone is FOMO-ing into,

2141
01:17:33,955 --> 01:17:35,975
oh my God, we have to get to space to train these models.

2142
01:17:36,835 --> 01:17:38,376
Also, I think to a lesser degree,

2143
01:17:38,455 --> 01:17:40,876
but still meaningful is the social media data.

2144
01:17:41,035 --> 01:17:41,535
Sure, that too.

2145
01:17:41,735 --> 01:17:43,215
And he's closed that off to others, right?

2146
01:17:43,495 --> 01:17:44,175
I have a question though.

2147
01:17:44,335 --> 01:17:46,975
So I agree on the Google prediction,

2148
01:17:47,155 --> 01:17:51,035
but ChatGPT has a massive lead on users, right?

2149
01:17:51,035 --> 01:17:52,055
Don't get, I have, yeah.

2150
01:17:52,495 --> 01:17:54,495
So what's your prediction around

2151
01:17:54,495 --> 01:17:56,255
how that changes a year from now?

2152
01:17:56,475 --> 01:17:56,955
No idea.

2153
01:17:57,515 --> 01:17:58,935
I just think that Google's going to have the best.

2154
01:17:59,055 --> 01:18:00,735
And I mean, and I would say,

2155
01:18:00,795 --> 01:18:01,795
go so far as to say,

2156
01:18:02,195 --> 01:18:05,655
if it's not, I actually think it'll probably be Claude

2157
01:18:05,655 --> 01:18:06,735
and Anthropik.

2158
01:18:06,735 --> 01:18:08,275
I think Anthropik's doing really well with the coders.

2159
01:18:08,395 --> 01:18:10,655
I think ChatGPT continues to be more of a consumer product.

2160
01:18:11,035 --> 01:18:13,215
for the people that are not deep.

2161
01:18:14,876 --> 01:18:16,695
I feel like you guys are going to be using Google.

2162
01:18:18,795 --> 01:18:23,735
And then that long-term chat GPT loses?

2163
01:18:25,075 --> 01:18:27,695
I mean, I think all four are probably going to do just fine

2164
01:18:27,695 --> 01:18:28,815
in the long run.

2165
01:18:28,935 --> 01:18:31,215
I don't think any of them are going to be big losers per se,

2166
01:18:31,355 --> 01:18:33,475
but I think that it's going to become clear.

2167
01:18:33,615 --> 01:18:34,955
If there is only one winner,

2168
01:18:34,955 --> 01:18:36,675
it's going to be X because of the space.

2169
01:18:37,655 --> 01:18:40,595
I would maybe tweak my own version of that,

2170
01:18:40,595 --> 01:18:43,615
which is I think the models don't matter long-term.

2171
01:18:44,075 --> 01:18:45,715
You need to have something besides the model.

2172
01:18:45,915 --> 01:18:47,135
So if you have access to space, great.

2173
01:18:47,195 --> 01:18:48,995
If you have the best data centers, cheapest energy,

2174
01:18:49,795 --> 01:18:51,475
best proprietary data sets, whatever.

2175
01:18:51,555 --> 01:18:53,255
There's some other aspect, but just like,

2176
01:18:53,315 --> 01:18:55,255
oh, we have the best researchers and built the best model,

2177
01:18:55,355 --> 01:18:57,835
I think it's not a credible differentiator long-term.

2178
01:18:58,135 --> 01:18:58,295
I agree.

2179
01:18:58,655 --> 01:19:00,775
Nick asks, aren't, or states,

2180
01:19:00,935 --> 01:19:02,835
aren't space data centers a meme?

2181
01:19:03,315 --> 01:19:06,015
They are both a meme, and they're actually happening.

2182
01:19:07,635 --> 01:19:09,295
Okay, the next one.

2183
01:19:09,295 --> 01:19:11,415
They have to give them a medic at some point, right?

2184
01:19:11,435 --> 01:19:13,835
I mean, look, Elon has just skipped from type 1 to type 2,

2185
01:19:13,955 --> 01:19:15,955
so we'll have the type 2 summit next year.

2186
01:19:16,315 --> 01:19:18,475
And he claims that money will not matter.

2187
01:19:18,615 --> 01:19:20,955
So I asked you, why are you wasting all your time on Bitcoin

2188
01:19:20,955 --> 01:19:21,835
if money will not matter?

2189
01:19:21,835 --> 01:19:22,755
I disagree with him on that one.

2190
01:19:24,435 --> 01:19:25,075
But hold on.

2191
01:19:25,135 --> 01:19:26,355
On this show earlier in the year,

2192
01:19:26,455 --> 01:19:28,835
I feel like definitely the topic was raised,

2193
01:19:28,895 --> 01:19:31,315
and I thought you raised it, that money wouldn't matter.

2194
01:19:31,455 --> 01:19:33,275
But maybe you're just raising it as a topic as opposed to having a position.

2195
01:19:33,275 --> 01:19:34,255
Yeah, I was raising it as a topic.

2196
01:19:34,275 --> 01:19:35,175
As opposed to having a position.

2197
01:19:35,175 --> 01:19:36,335
It's not my specific prediction.

2198
01:19:36,335 --> 01:19:42,555
I also won't say I feel like it's 100% wrong because I've also qualified as DKN as many times.

2199
01:19:43,015 --> 01:19:47,275
If energy really becomes effectively free, then I think that is a possible work.

2200
01:19:47,835 --> 01:19:49,255
I think we're not there yet.

2201
01:19:49,795 --> 01:19:56,635
And I think that, sadly, the political structures are probably not going to allow that to happen on the first run.

2202
01:19:56,995 --> 01:19:57,675
I would love to be wrong.

2203
01:19:57,675 --> 01:20:05,235
I think I think like energy being roughly free is is going to happen in the course of our lifetimes

2204
01:20:05,235 --> 01:20:10,835
but probably not in the next year yeah and so the timing really matters on like that like is that

2205
01:20:10,835 --> 01:20:15,376
transition a 10-year transition yeah yeah and as nick says it's kind of lol the hang on the guy's

2206
01:20:15,376 --> 01:20:18,735
launching x money thinks money doesn't matter yeah I would take that with a grain of salt

2207
01:20:18,735 --> 01:20:26,635
okay the guy going to court over his pay package right okay my next two predictions my final two

2208
01:20:26,635 --> 01:20:31,055
predictions um this one gets back to square and cash app and why one of the reasons i'm bullish

2209
01:20:31,055 --> 01:20:36,535
i think title is going to play a pretty major adoption role for bitcoin and they're going to

2210
01:20:36,535 --> 01:20:43,255
pay out the first artist in bitcoin next year and that's without any inside info that's just

2211
01:20:43,255 --> 01:20:49,075
your inside observation it's just my observation from the world no comment it's very obvious to me

2212
01:20:49,075 --> 01:20:55,635
yeah and finally my last one is that my sort of recycle from last year an unexpected nostre app

2213
01:20:55,635 --> 01:20:56,715
will break into the mainstream.

2214
01:20:58,675 --> 01:21:01,055
And I would asterisk that and say,

2215
01:21:01,155 --> 01:21:02,715
we will not call it a Nostra app.

2216
01:21:02,735 --> 01:21:02,995
I agree.

2217
01:21:03,095 --> 01:21:03,715
People know we'll use Nostra.

2218
01:21:03,735 --> 01:21:04,475
People know we'll use Nostra.

2219
01:21:04,655 --> 01:21:07,376
And then I want to highlight Matt Belez's

2220
01:21:07,376 --> 01:21:08,895
mentioning audience prediction.

2221
01:21:09,495 --> 01:21:11,376
AI creates major scientific discovery

2222
01:21:11,376 --> 01:21:12,376
that will change the world.

2223
01:21:13,115 --> 01:21:14,935
I strongly agree with that.

2224
01:21:14,975 --> 01:21:17,195
I think we already have evidence of AIs

2225
01:21:17,195 --> 01:21:21,555
making some scientific breakthroughs in some fields.

2226
01:21:21,555 --> 01:21:24,355
I think we had a physics or a math one that happened.

2227
01:21:24,355 --> 01:21:26,135
and it seems

2228
01:21:26,135 --> 01:21:28,835
very, you know, let silicon and electricity

2229
01:21:28,835 --> 01:21:30,835
go, like yes, I think more of that will

2230
01:21:30,835 --> 01:21:32,815
happen and something substantial probably comes

2231
01:21:32,815 --> 01:21:34,455
of it, so I'm with you Matt. Cool.

2232
01:21:35,335 --> 01:21:36,735
I agree, I don't know if it'll be next year

2233
01:21:36,735 --> 01:21:38,615
or 2027, but I think certainly in the next two years.

2234
01:21:39,355 --> 01:21:40,195
I think

2235
01:21:40,195 --> 01:21:42,415
Divine,

2236
01:21:42,715 --> 01:21:44,935
that's the new Nostra app, oh yeah, that was the

2237
01:21:44,935 --> 01:21:46,835
Rabble Nostra app, exactly. He said

2238
01:21:46,835 --> 01:21:48,295
maybe that seems ready to do that, yeah.

2239
01:21:48,595 --> 01:21:50,195
And Deanna says it'll be her app.

2240
01:21:50,715 --> 01:21:52,135
She doesn't know what it is yet, but she'll be vibe good.

2241
01:21:53,195 --> 01:21:54,035
Sweet. Sweet.

2242
01:21:54,355 --> 01:21:55,255
I only have one prediction.

2243
01:21:55,695 --> 01:21:55,895
Okay.

2244
01:21:56,515 --> 01:21:57,235
I didn't use AI.

2245
01:21:57,735 --> 01:21:59,435
Yeah, I failed to prep.

2246
01:21:59,575 --> 01:21:59,735
Sorry.

2247
01:22:00,535 --> 01:22:02,195
You can come back in early 2020.

2248
01:22:02,475 --> 01:22:04,235
Maybe if I come up with something good, I'll do that.

2249
01:22:04,376 --> 01:22:08,215
But I'll predict the flippening in 2026.

2250
01:22:08,435 --> 01:22:08,815
Flippening of what?

2251
01:22:10,735 --> 01:22:11,935
Oh, this is a good one.

2252
01:22:12,555 --> 01:22:14,615
The Bitcoin B symbol over SAT.

2253
01:22:14,775 --> 01:22:14,955
Oh.

2254
01:22:15,075 --> 01:22:15,715
Oh, okay.

2255
01:22:16,075 --> 01:22:16,235
Right.

2256
01:22:16,235 --> 01:22:18,735
The sentiment will shift.

2257
01:22:19,775 --> 01:22:22,055
The number, the product adoption.

2258
01:22:22,055 --> 01:22:30,295
Like the sentiment will be like all of a sudden, oh, that product hasn't upgraded yet or adopted it yet.

2259
01:22:30,355 --> 01:22:32,735
And it will feel old and stale.

2260
01:22:32,935 --> 01:22:33,155
Yep.

2261
01:22:33,255 --> 01:22:35,535
As opposed to like, this is a weird concept.

2262
01:22:35,915 --> 01:22:36,815
Sats have already won.

2263
01:22:37,155 --> 01:22:40,315
Like the sentiment to date has been, sats have already won.

2264
01:22:40,415 --> 01:22:42,675
Why are these people trying to push for a Bitcoin B symbol?

2265
01:22:42,876 --> 01:22:44,195
Matt says, hasn't that already happened?

2266
01:22:44,935 --> 01:22:46,295
Are you making a DK prediction?

2267
01:22:46,675 --> 01:22:49,255
I predict what happened yesterday, this is going to happen.

2268
01:22:50,255 --> 01:22:51,435
Those are the best predictions.

2269
01:22:51,435 --> 01:22:53,915
In Matt, in my mind, it's already happened.

2270
01:22:54,175 --> 01:22:57,795
But I don't think an objective person would say it's flipped.

2271
01:22:58,195 --> 01:22:59,175
There's been a flipping yet.

2272
01:22:59,235 --> 01:23:01,975
I think it will flip in in 2026.

2273
01:23:02,355 --> 01:23:03,855
I would like to make one more prediction,

2274
01:23:03,855 --> 01:23:08,595
which is that Max and hopefully DK,

2275
01:23:08,795 --> 01:23:11,815
but if not DK and AI, but hopefully DK.

2276
01:23:12,775 --> 01:23:13,995
He's just sending me work.

2277
01:23:14,295 --> 01:23:15,535
What do I have to do?

2278
01:23:15,975 --> 01:23:19,915
Produce a hip hop track together next year.

2279
01:23:19,915 --> 01:23:25,595
he seems less confident

2280
01:23:25,595 --> 01:23:27,876
that's related to the show or not

2281
01:23:27,876 --> 01:23:30,095
I'm going to predict

2282
01:23:30,095 --> 01:23:31,075
I think I made this prediction

2283
01:23:31,075 --> 01:23:34,376
we're going to get some theme music for PBJ

2284
01:23:34,376 --> 01:23:36,675
some custom intros and outros

2285
01:23:36,675 --> 01:23:37,675
but he can't be lame

2286
01:23:37,675 --> 01:23:39,975
we have a volunteer who's going to

2287
01:23:39,975 --> 01:23:41,635
come up with some creative ideas

2288
01:23:41,635 --> 01:23:44,355
for an introductory segment

2289
01:23:44,355 --> 01:23:45,895
of each episode

2290
01:23:45,895 --> 01:23:46,095
who?

2291
01:23:47,575 --> 01:23:49,095
you haven't told you this yet

2292
01:23:49,095 --> 01:23:49,315
No.

2293
01:23:50,035 --> 01:23:51,615
Ken from the Spiral team.

2294
01:23:51,695 --> 01:23:52,395
I talked to DK.

2295
01:23:52,775 --> 01:23:53,715
Ken's got pretty good taste.

2296
01:23:53,815 --> 01:23:54,175
He wants,

2297
01:23:54,335 --> 01:23:54,455
well,

2298
01:23:54,515 --> 01:23:55,795
he's our number one fan.

2299
01:23:56,055 --> 01:23:56,275
Yeah.

2300
01:23:57,475 --> 01:23:58,615
He loves the show

2301
01:23:58,615 --> 01:24:00,115
and he,

2302
01:24:00,455 --> 01:24:02,295
he has some ideas.

2303
01:24:02,455 --> 01:24:02,635
Okay,

2304
01:24:02,755 --> 01:24:02,935
cool.

2305
01:24:03,015 --> 01:24:03,376
I'm open.

2306
01:24:03,835 --> 01:24:04,175
Just don't,

2307
01:24:04,175 --> 01:24:04,695
don't be lame.

2308
01:24:05,035 --> 01:24:05,495
And I like,

2309
01:24:05,575 --> 01:24:05,855
I was,

2310
01:24:05,995 --> 01:24:09,275
I know I've been going on and on about this with Alex just before

2311
01:24:09,275 --> 01:24:11,115
and with Steve on our bike ride yesterday.

2312
01:24:11,715 --> 01:24:13,115
I don't know if I've mentioned to you,

2313
01:24:13,275 --> 01:24:14,655
have we talked about the Acquired podcast?

2314
01:24:15,275 --> 01:24:15,775
You mean you,

2315
01:24:15,815 --> 01:24:16,915
you made a big deal of it last week.

2316
01:24:17,015 --> 01:24:17,235
Okay.

2317
01:24:17,376 --> 01:24:17,635
You guys,

2318
01:24:17,975 --> 01:24:18,135
hey,

2319
01:24:18,175 --> 01:24:18,295
hey,

2320
01:24:18,615 --> 01:24:18,835
listen,

2321
01:24:19,095 --> 01:24:20,815
I don't mean to get too excited.

2322
01:24:21,055 --> 01:24:22,735
Have you guys heard of the Joe Rogan podcast?

2323
01:24:23,775 --> 01:24:24,376
I know.

2324
01:24:24,475 --> 01:24:25,735
I just found this great podcast.

2325
01:24:26,055 --> 01:24:27,435
I'm so late to it, but I'm so in love with it.

2326
01:24:27,435 --> 01:24:28,615
I'm even later to it, though.

2327
01:24:28,915 --> 01:24:30,355
But you got into the NFL one.

2328
01:24:30,535 --> 01:24:33,876
Yeah, I'm an hour into the NFL episode, and it's fucking amazing.

2329
01:24:33,876 --> 01:24:34,255
It's really good.

2330
01:24:34,395 --> 01:24:36,835
I've already shared it with my whole Fantasy Football League,

2331
01:24:37,115 --> 01:24:38,235
calling it a must-listen.

2332
01:24:38,295 --> 01:24:39,595
The Google series is amazing.

2333
01:24:39,995 --> 01:24:40,895
Yeah, the Google series is dope.

2334
01:24:41,235 --> 01:24:44,335
This morning when I went to the gym, I started the Visa one.

2335
01:24:44,775 --> 01:24:45,775
Of course, it's amazing.

2336
01:24:45,955 --> 01:24:47,415
Dee Hawk, have you read the book?

2337
01:24:47,415 --> 01:24:50,595
It's basically that is their primary source, is the book.

2338
01:24:50,915 --> 01:24:53,235
So it's kind of like an audio conversation.

2339
01:24:53,395 --> 01:24:55,455
Them sort of, they've read the book, they've researched it,

2340
01:24:55,475 --> 01:24:57,595
they talked to, I think, the author of the book.

2341
01:24:57,595 --> 01:24:57,995
They talked to Dee before he died.

2342
01:24:58,376 --> 01:25:01,175
Dude, by the way, if you haven't read that, read that book.

2343
01:25:01,715 --> 01:25:02,775
You will love that book.

2344
01:25:02,835 --> 01:25:03,555
I think you'll like it.

2345
01:25:03,595 --> 01:25:04,635
You both like that book.

2346
01:25:04,635 --> 01:25:05,835
Or listen to the Acquired Podcast.

2347
01:25:06,515 --> 01:25:06,715
Yeah.

2348
01:25:06,876 --> 01:25:07,715
It's effectively like.

2349
01:25:07,895 --> 01:25:12,055
But the book, Dee Hawk, is, I forget, what's the name of the book?

2350
01:25:12,195 --> 01:25:13,115
It's one for many.

2351
01:25:13,695 --> 01:25:15,195
Alan Farrington's a big fan as well.

2352
01:25:15,295 --> 01:25:15,815
Shout out to Alan.

2353
01:25:15,955 --> 01:25:16,915
He has great taste of books.

2354
01:25:16,915 --> 01:25:17,415
That's the book?

2355
01:25:17,555 --> 01:25:18,035
Yeah, that's the book.

2356
01:25:18,235 --> 01:25:20,876
There's some other book I heard of.

2357
01:25:21,876 --> 01:25:22,735
One for many?

2358
01:25:22,835 --> 01:25:27,835
One for many is one of the best business-ish philosophy books I've ever read.

2359
01:25:28,515 --> 01:25:29,376
10 out of 10 recommend.

2360
01:25:30,235 --> 01:25:33,475
And it's very poetic as well.

2361
01:25:33,515 --> 01:25:35,135
There's one called The Power of an Idea?

2362
01:25:35,635 --> 01:25:36,775
Yeah, that's not...

2363
01:25:36,775 --> 01:25:38,635
These are the lame ones that these guys listen to.

2364
01:25:38,635 --> 01:25:39,615
That's not the ones...

2365
01:25:39,615 --> 01:25:40,295
These are the lame ones.

2366
01:25:40,295 --> 01:25:40,495
Okay.

2367
01:25:40,855 --> 01:25:43,035
One for many is beautiful and poetic.

2368
01:25:43,415 --> 01:25:46,215
And it's a book about life.

2369
01:25:46,215 --> 01:25:48,055
and it's by the guy that founded Visa

2370
01:25:48,055 --> 01:25:50,135
and a business just happens to be part of it.

2371
01:25:50,215 --> 01:25:50,495
Oh, cool.

2372
01:25:50,675 --> 01:25:51,475
It's excellent.

2373
01:25:53,255 --> 01:25:55,535
But as kind of payments nerds,

2374
01:25:55,715 --> 01:25:58,055
I think you'll enjoy the Visa episode.

2375
01:25:58,055 --> 01:25:59,835
I'm going to finish NFL and then Visa.

2376
01:26:00,475 --> 01:26:02,955
And I'm late to the game here,

2377
01:26:03,095 --> 01:26:03,915
but I agree.

2378
01:26:04,095 --> 01:26:04,655
It's so good.

2379
01:26:04,815 --> 01:26:07,435
I am such a huge NFL fan

2380
01:26:07,435 --> 01:26:09,895
and you're not much of an NFL fan.

2381
01:26:09,995 --> 01:26:11,915
I mean, I might get back into it a little bit

2382
01:26:11,915 --> 01:26:12,755
because I'm a Saints fan

2383
01:26:12,755 --> 01:26:14,715
and the Saints have just been so bad for so long,

2384
01:26:14,775 --> 01:26:15,815
but now we got a guy that's like,

2385
01:26:15,815 --> 01:26:19,835
But I'm a huge fan, spent so much time watching it and understanding it.

2386
01:26:19,975 --> 01:26:22,195
And the first 60 minutes I've listened to this podcast,

2387
01:26:22,376 --> 01:26:24,915
like 59 of the 60 minutes, it's information new to me.

2388
01:26:25,115 --> 01:26:25,295
Really?

2389
01:26:25,376 --> 01:26:26,935
And super valuable and interesting.

2390
01:26:27,115 --> 01:26:29,775
Because it starts in the 1860s.

2391
01:26:29,895 --> 01:26:33,975
So the origin of American football, it starts with college athletics.

2392
01:26:34,135 --> 01:26:38,455
And then the introduction of professional and the different leagues.

2393
01:26:38,575 --> 01:26:39,195
It's just amazing.

2394
01:26:40,155 --> 01:26:43,355
We all grump on fees about the 3%.

2395
01:26:43,355 --> 01:26:45,695
None of the early merchants cared at all.

2396
01:26:45,695 --> 01:26:46,655
they were like amazing

2397
01:26:46,655 --> 01:26:48,115
all these new customers

2398
01:26:48,115 --> 01:26:48,735
can come to me

2399
01:26:48,735 --> 01:26:49,215
and just pay

2400
01:26:49,215 --> 01:26:50,235
and it's so easy

2401
01:26:50,235 --> 01:26:51,275
like I think it was

2402
01:26:51,275 --> 01:26:52,195
five or seven percent

2403
01:26:52,195 --> 01:26:52,635
or something

2404
01:26:52,635 --> 01:26:53,555
and they didn't worry about it

2405
01:26:53,555 --> 01:26:55,215
so to be clear

2406
01:26:55,215 --> 01:26:56,055
one for many

2407
01:26:56,055 --> 01:26:57,455
you'll get the payment nerd stuff too

2408
01:26:57,455 --> 01:26:57,695
okay

2409
01:26:57,695 --> 01:26:59,595
but it's from his perspective

2410
01:26:59,595 --> 01:27:00,195
so it's like

2411
01:27:00,195 --> 01:27:01,955
a philosopher king

2412
01:27:01,955 --> 01:27:03,635
learns about payments

2413
01:27:03,635 --> 01:27:05,015
it's kind of like

2414
01:27:05,015 --> 01:27:06,095
a little bit like

2415
01:27:06,095 --> 01:27:06,675
Jack Dorsey

2416
01:27:06,675 --> 01:27:07,975
he's doing it

2417
01:27:07,975 --> 01:27:09,075
and he's doing cool business stuff

2418
01:27:09,075 --> 01:27:09,395
but like

2419
01:27:09,395 --> 01:27:10,035
he doesn't really

2420
01:27:10,035 --> 01:27:10,795
that's not

2421
01:27:10,795 --> 01:27:11,355
he's not here like

2422
01:27:11,355 --> 01:27:12,395
I'm gonna make some margins

2423
01:27:12,395 --> 01:27:13,215
like he's like

2424
01:27:13,215 --> 01:27:14,475
changing the world in school

2425
01:27:14,475 --> 01:27:15,215
right right

2426
01:27:15,215 --> 01:27:15,415
so

2427
01:27:15,415 --> 01:27:17,555
another thing

2428
01:27:17,555 --> 01:27:18,735
that we

2429
01:27:18,735 --> 01:27:19,795
headline for today

2430
01:27:19,795 --> 01:27:20,515
is contentious

2431
01:27:20,515 --> 01:27:20,895
forks

2432
01:27:20,895 --> 01:27:21,455
so maybe we

2433
01:27:21,455 --> 01:27:22,376
touch on that

2434
01:27:22,376 --> 01:27:22,835
I mean it's like

2435
01:27:22,835 --> 01:27:23,995
a multi-hour

2436
01:27:23,995 --> 01:27:24,595
conversation

2437
01:27:24,595 --> 01:27:25,355
but at least

2438
01:27:25,355 --> 01:27:26,315
let's touch on it

2439
01:27:26,315 --> 01:27:26,635
is this the

2440
01:27:26,635 --> 01:27:27,275
knots thing

2441
01:27:27,275 --> 01:27:28,215
or quantum stuff

2442
01:27:28,215 --> 01:27:29,155
or all of it

2443
01:27:29,155 --> 01:27:30,415
it could be either

2444
01:27:30,415 --> 01:27:32,995
so for those

2445
01:27:32,995 --> 01:27:33,815
that don't know

2446
01:27:33,815 --> 01:27:34,876
I worked on a

2447
01:27:34,876 --> 01:27:35,355
project with

2448
01:27:35,355 --> 01:27:35,935
Lynn Alden

2449
01:27:35,935 --> 01:27:37,675
and Crypto Ren

2450
01:27:37,675 --> 01:27:39,015
a year ago

2451
01:27:39,015 --> 01:27:40,235
called BCAP

2452
01:27:40,235 --> 01:27:41,195
Bitcoin Consensus

2453
01:27:41,195 --> 01:27:41,995
Analysis Project

2454
01:27:41,995 --> 01:27:42,615
we mentioned it

2455
01:27:42,615 --> 01:27:43,015
a few times

2456
01:27:43,015 --> 01:27:43,415
this show

2457
01:27:43,415 --> 01:27:45,255
earlier in the year

2458
01:27:45,255 --> 01:27:47,315
never really went deep on it though

2459
01:27:47,315 --> 01:27:48,355
I think it's

2460
01:27:48,355 --> 01:27:52,595
the question is like

2461
01:27:52,595 --> 01:27:54,795
the question on a lot of people's minds is like

2462
01:27:54,795 --> 01:27:56,555
how does Bitcoin change? How do you change Bitcoin?

2463
01:27:56,915 --> 01:27:58,995
But the flip of that is also a very interesting question

2464
01:27:58,995 --> 01:28:00,935
how do you not change Bitcoin?

2465
01:28:01,575 --> 01:28:02,915
Because if you are invested

2466
01:28:02,915 --> 01:28:04,775
in Bitcoin or using Bitcoin and you really care

2467
01:28:04,775 --> 01:28:04,975
about

2468
01:28:04,975 --> 01:28:08,995
let's say we're investors

2469
01:28:08,995 --> 01:28:11,115
or let's say we're running a business

2470
01:28:11,115 --> 01:28:13,095
we care very much

2471
01:28:13,095 --> 01:28:15,235
about the properties of Bitcoin

2472
01:28:15,235 --> 01:28:19,575
We don't want it to change because we like the properties of Bitcoin.

2473
01:28:20,135 --> 01:28:23,655
So we should care about how does it not change?

2474
01:28:23,755 --> 01:28:26,675
You say do nothing, but what if other humans in the world do something?

2475
01:28:27,195 --> 01:28:28,855
How do you prevent it from changing?

2476
01:28:29,375 --> 01:28:34,915
So both sides of the coin, it's the same coin, but it's two different views.

2477
01:28:35,415 --> 01:28:40,315
So this project was an analysis of what keeps it from changing and how does it change?

2478
01:28:40,315 --> 01:28:45,895
there's of course no like authoritative resource and including this project but it's just an

2479
01:28:45,895 --> 01:28:50,695
analysis it's a framework it's one way to think about it i think it's i mean i'm biased but i

2480
01:28:50,695 --> 01:28:55,435
think it's a good way to think about it um so we produced that in 2024 launched it a little over a

2481
01:28:55,435 --> 01:29:03,075
year ago um and i feel like now that there's a couple of uh topics that are related to this

2482
01:29:03,075 --> 01:29:09,855
it's starting it'll be more valuable to other folks um one is the the not stuff so there's

2483
01:29:09,855 --> 01:29:10,395
There's a BIP.

2484
01:29:10,655 --> 01:29:11,515
It was 444.

2485
01:29:11,855 --> 01:29:12,476
Now it's 110.

2486
01:29:12,755 --> 01:29:17,075
But trying to like defeat spam and confiscate coins, etc.

2487
01:29:17,275 --> 01:29:19,235
But it would be a consensus change.

2488
01:29:19,995 --> 01:29:22,555
I don't think there's a whole lot of merit.

2489
01:29:23,295 --> 01:29:24,255
Certainly not merit.

2490
01:29:25,195 --> 01:29:27,315
There's not much oomph to that.

2491
01:29:27,395 --> 01:29:29,895
But like nevertheless, it's a topic in social media at least.

2492
01:29:31,315 --> 01:29:34,415
And then Quantum continues to rear its head.

2493
01:29:34,735 --> 01:29:36,295
We've talked about it a lot on the show.

2494
01:29:36,295 --> 01:29:40,875
and it may be playing a small or large part

2495
01:29:40,875 --> 01:29:42,575
in price suppression of Bitcoin.

2496
01:29:43,135 --> 01:29:46,655
There's definitely discussion and fear

2497
01:29:46,655 --> 01:29:49,075
among investors with quantum.

2498
01:29:50,535 --> 01:29:53,695
And so if and when quantum computers ever do

2499
01:29:53,695 --> 01:29:55,855
become capable of stealing Bitcoin,

2500
01:29:56,395 --> 01:29:58,095
we will need to do a consensus change

2501
01:29:58,095 --> 01:29:59,835
to introduce new cryptography.

2502
01:30:00,655 --> 01:30:02,335
And we've talked about on the show,

2503
01:30:02,455 --> 01:30:05,695
what are the different contentious issues there?

2504
01:30:06,295 --> 01:30:11,115
So, BKAP project, I think, addresses both of these quite well.

2505
01:30:11,395 --> 01:30:20,035
So, you might see some of us who worked on BKAP go on podcasts and stuff and get more engaged on social media to talk about how it applies to this.

2506
01:30:20,395 --> 01:30:23,595
But I was surprised in social media engagement yesterday.

2507
01:30:24,375 --> 01:30:30,835
Nick Carter spending time looking at the quantum issue right now, doing a lot of research, writing a lot about it.

2508
01:30:31,575 --> 01:30:34,135
Which is great, by the way, because Nick is a smart dude, so I'm happy to see that.

2509
01:30:34,135 --> 01:30:35,495
Yeah, Nick's a smart guy.

2510
01:30:36,295 --> 01:30:43,595
And he's, he's being, he's positioning as a bit of, I would characterize alarmist though.

2511
01:30:43,735 --> 01:30:48,535
So more alarmist than I, I think is really.

2512
01:30:49,095 --> 01:30:53,335
But I'm glad because even if he's wrong, like it's good that people are like taking it seriously.

2513
01:30:54,235 --> 01:30:56,875
Well, that's an interesting discussion point.

2514
01:30:56,976 --> 01:31:01,775
I mean, like, because the question of like, when will a quantum computer be like,

2515
01:31:01,775 --> 01:31:06,235
I don't see how we can

2516
01:31:06,235 --> 01:31:08,795
we're not going to reach a point in one year

2517
01:31:08,795 --> 01:31:10,835
I saw someone relate this to like

2518
01:31:10,835 --> 01:31:12,035
the environment issue

2519
01:31:12,035 --> 01:31:13,775
and I feel like we came up with a bunch of

2520
01:31:13,775 --> 01:31:15,655
rational logical arguments

2521
01:31:15,655 --> 01:31:17,655
for why it's not an environmental concern

2522
01:31:17,655 --> 01:31:18,795
and we're seeing that play out

2523
01:31:18,795 --> 01:31:20,035
and it's kind of like

2524
01:31:20,035 --> 01:31:22,495
it has proof points behind it

2525
01:31:22,495 --> 01:31:24,555
but with quantum FUD

2526
01:31:24,555 --> 01:31:26,335
like a year from now

2527
01:31:26,335 --> 01:31:27,795
we're not going to be able to say like

2528
01:31:27,795 --> 01:31:29,815
yep a quantum computer is impossible

2529
01:31:29,815 --> 01:31:30,815
or a quantum computer

2530
01:31:30,815 --> 01:31:34,755
We now have proof that it's going to be 25 years until it's viable.

2531
01:31:35,215 --> 01:31:36,035
We're not going to have that.

2532
01:31:36,115 --> 01:31:39,035
So it's going to be this looming question.

2533
01:31:39,795 --> 01:31:44,976
So how do we move away from alarmism?

2534
01:31:45,295 --> 01:31:48,555
So I do think it's good to be raising awareness

2535
01:31:48,555 --> 01:31:52,915
because we don't know if and when it will occur.

2536
01:31:53,415 --> 01:31:57,115
And if it does occur in a few years and we're not prepared,

2537
01:31:57,515 --> 01:31:59,615
that is bad for Bitcoin.

2538
01:32:00,355 --> 01:32:02,435
So I think what's important to communicate is like,

2539
01:32:02,955 --> 01:32:04,476
what are the key points?

2540
01:32:04,755 --> 01:32:05,715
Are we prepared?

2541
01:32:05,895 --> 01:32:06,775
What's our level of preparation?

2542
01:32:07,476 --> 01:32:10,795
And we covered that at the Presbyterian Bitcoin quantum event.

2543
01:32:11,115 --> 01:32:12,095
We need to do a better job,

2544
01:32:12,155 --> 01:32:13,435
as we talked about on the show a few weeks ago.

2545
01:32:13,435 --> 01:32:17,115
We're going to get that out in January.

2546
01:32:18,175 --> 01:32:18,955
Not an Alphadrome.

2547
01:32:19,875 --> 01:32:22,735
But in any case,

2548
01:32:23,875 --> 01:32:28,675
what I wanted to say in that exchange with Nick on X,

2549
01:32:28,675 --> 01:32:40,735
I was really surprised one statement he made, which is that there won't ever be a contentious fork again with Bitcoin because BlackRock will just negotiate it behind the scenes.

2550
01:32:41,455 --> 01:32:43,675
And I think that's completely insane.

2551
01:32:43,995 --> 01:32:51,675
Like if that is true, like if you guys say like, yeah, I agree with Nick and everyone believes that, then I'm going to just exit Bitcoin.

2552
01:32:51,675 --> 01:32:55,075
Like, that coin's, like, completely uninteresting then.

2553
01:32:55,335 --> 01:33:01,155
If BlackRock is controlling it and just simply just behind the scenes negotiating it.

2554
01:33:01,275 --> 01:33:02,515
How much do they hold?

2555
01:33:02,915 --> 01:33:03,075
I bet.

2556
01:33:04,675 --> 01:33:07,015
Like, I mean, we can talk about that, but, like.

2557
01:33:07,075 --> 01:33:07,835
What was the actual number?

2558
01:33:07,935 --> 01:33:08,595
Like, a million?

2559
01:33:08,935 --> 01:33:09,655
They hold none.

2560
01:33:10,615 --> 01:33:11,855
On behalf of the customers.

2561
01:33:12,535 --> 01:33:13,235
Coinbase is the best.

2562
01:33:13,235 --> 01:33:14,195
On behalf of the customers.

2563
01:33:14,335 --> 01:33:16,395
Like, how much are they, in theory?

2564
01:33:16,515 --> 01:33:18,635
I know they're not cussing it, but, like, how much are they, in theory, managing?

2565
01:33:18,635 --> 01:33:20,375
I think it's on the order of $800,000.

2566
01:33:20,375 --> 01:33:20,775
Okay.

2567
01:33:20,775 --> 01:33:25,075
Yeah, because to be clear, I mean, I think Nick's point is, I don't know if they have enough.

2568
01:33:25,155 --> 01:33:26,875
I haven't really thought about this issue to have an opinion yet.

2569
01:33:27,415 --> 01:33:31,455
But even if it's not their Bitcoin in the docs, they can choose it for.

2570
01:33:32,235 --> 01:33:32,775
I know.

2571
01:33:33,135 --> 01:33:34,815
We cover that in the B-cap analysis.

2572
01:33:35,055 --> 01:33:36,515
So you guys should reread it.

2573
01:33:36,655 --> 01:33:36,875
Okay.

2574
01:33:37,275 --> 01:33:41,815
But do you agree that if it's true that they control Bitcoin?

2575
01:33:41,815 --> 01:33:43,415
I don't think they can do it by themselves.

2576
01:33:43,555 --> 01:33:46,775
But one might say maybe today as they keep accumulating coins.

2577
01:33:46,875 --> 01:33:49,315
I would probably say just on face without thinking about it a lot.

2578
01:33:49,435 --> 01:33:50,295
He's probably wrong today.

2579
01:33:50,295 --> 01:33:56,895
But like, could you imagine a world pretty soon where there's enough big players that collectively have enough of the supply?

2580
01:33:57,135 --> 01:33:57,476
Probably.

2581
01:33:58,315 --> 01:34:04,395
Yeah, but I still don't see how they can't control others from forking.

2582
01:34:05,175 --> 01:34:07,476
Like others can create a fork.

2583
01:34:07,595 --> 01:34:07,715
Yeah.

2584
01:34:08,095 --> 01:34:11,615
And the rest of the world can place bets on that.

2585
01:34:11,715 --> 01:34:11,815
Sure.

2586
01:34:11,835 --> 01:34:12,855
Like a market can exist.

2587
01:34:13,055 --> 01:34:16,455
Yeah, but I think his point is that fork would not get any economic liability.

2588
01:34:16,695 --> 01:34:18,935
Like 2017, e-cash for a minute.

2589
01:34:18,935 --> 01:34:19,675
It could.

2590
01:34:19,675 --> 01:34:25,455
If the Chinese don't like the direction that BlackRock's going, they absolutely will start placing bets on that.

2591
01:34:25,476 --> 01:34:26,755
That's a good point. Yeah, if sovereigns can beat, sure.

2592
01:34:27,476 --> 01:34:31,095
Yeah, I mean, the world's complex, right? It's not just a BlackRock world.

2593
01:34:31,955 --> 01:34:34,655
Or Coinbase or Strategy or what have you.

2594
01:34:35,815 --> 01:34:43,675
And also another dynamic which we didn't get into in that social media interaction is futures markets I think will play a big...

2595
01:34:43,675 --> 01:34:46,235
I mean, what I said in the show a few weeks ago

2596
01:34:46,235 --> 01:34:49,476
and I said on Twitter is that I don't think,

2597
01:34:49,575 --> 01:34:51,035
in the specific case of quantum,

2598
01:34:51,455 --> 01:34:53,855
I don't think we're going to resolve freeze coins

2599
01:34:53,855 --> 01:34:57,035
or steal coins because there's really good arguments

2600
01:34:57,035 --> 01:35:00,815
for both positions and they both strike

2601
01:35:00,815 --> 01:35:03,815
at the heart of core principles most Bitcoiners care about.

2602
01:35:03,976 --> 01:35:05,415
So it's a really hard problem, right?

2603
01:35:05,775 --> 01:35:08,295
So I think we're not going to like just have a discussion

2604
01:35:08,295 --> 01:35:09,295
and come to consensus.

2605
01:35:09,455 --> 01:35:11,655
I think it will come, it'll be a war.

2606
01:35:11,835 --> 01:35:13,315
I think there will be a split.

2607
01:35:13,675 --> 01:35:14,175
And

2608
01:35:14,233 --> 01:35:15,093
And the markets will decide.

2609
01:35:15,193 --> 01:35:15,673
That's what I've.

2610
01:35:15,793 --> 01:35:17,273
I think the markets will decide pretty quickly, though.

2611
01:35:17,633 --> 01:35:19,353
I think they'll decide very quickly now.

2612
01:35:19,653 --> 01:35:28,133
But an alternative to that, which is the same sentiment, is that there won't be a split, a chain split, because the markets will have already decided through a futures market.

2613
01:35:28,133 --> 01:35:37,573
Like, like, you know, if someone proposes a fork at block height, you know, 1.2 million or whatever, and we all see it's ahead of us, there'll be a futures market.

2614
01:35:37,573 --> 01:35:47,973
And if coin A, like the freeze coins are worth 10 times more than the steel, or vice versa, that'll be the winning coin and there'll be consensus.

2615
01:35:48,393 --> 01:35:54,013
Because I don't feel like, even if you're in one camp versus the other, this is not a deal breaker issue for most people.

2616
01:35:54,393 --> 01:36:00,433
Like you might have a preference for, I think you, at least last show, you stated a preference for steel.

2617
01:36:00,533 --> 01:36:01,793
I stated that preference over and over.

2618
01:36:02,233 --> 01:36:03,953
I don't like calling it steel.

2619
01:36:04,133 --> 01:36:06,453
I'm in camp, free markets, we don't touch it.

2620
01:36:06,453 --> 01:36:07,633
Okay, camp free market.

2621
01:36:08,453 --> 01:36:09,573
And then sailors in camp-

2622
01:36:09,573 --> 01:36:10,673
Steals of very bad bread.

2623
01:36:10,953 --> 01:36:12,533
Sailors in camp freeze, right?

2624
01:36:12,673 --> 01:36:15,033
And I know lots of people who I respect a lot

2625
01:36:15,033 --> 01:36:17,133
and have influence that are in each camp.

2626
01:36:17,353 --> 01:36:17,493
Yeah.

2627
01:36:17,673 --> 01:36:21,213
But I think most people, if they learn

2628
01:36:21,213 --> 01:36:25,873
that the 10x of prices in the camp that you're not in,

2629
01:36:26,293 --> 01:36:28,133
you are going to capitulate

2630
01:36:28,133 --> 01:36:31,533
versus actually go with the underpricing.

2631
01:36:31,533 --> 01:36:33,113
I think for any of these things, I agree with you.

2632
01:36:33,273 --> 01:36:34,593
That's most likely to happen on quantum.

2633
01:36:34,753 --> 01:36:36,373
I think for something like the span thing,

2634
01:36:36,453 --> 01:36:37,133
you're always going to have

2635
01:36:37,133 --> 01:36:38,253
the kind of like

2636
01:36:38,253 --> 01:36:40,073
orthodox tiny group.

2637
01:36:40,353 --> 01:36:41,113
If they want to fork off,

2638
01:36:41,173 --> 01:36:41,253
great,

2639
01:36:41,313 --> 01:36:41,633
they just want to have

2640
01:36:41,633 --> 01:36:51,971
any economic value Like Bcash still exists So I think there will be forks but like it going to be obvious obvious which one has value I don think it a negotiation by BlackRock Now one thing I do

2641
01:36:51,971 --> 01:36:53,431
think merits analysis is

2642
01:36:53,431 --> 01:36:57,791
to have a fork, you generally need

2643
01:36:57,791 --> 01:36:59,311
minor activation.

2644
01:36:59,571 --> 01:37:01,791
You don't technically need it, but

2645
01:37:01,791 --> 01:37:03,411
that's the easiest way to get a fork.

2646
01:37:04,051 --> 01:37:05,751
Since mining is very centralized

2647
01:37:05,751 --> 01:37:07,091
with a few mining pools,

2648
01:37:07,711 --> 01:37:09,931
you can have mining pools and the BlackRock

2649
01:37:09,931 --> 01:37:11,611
and Coinbase of the world get in a room, but

2650
01:37:11,611 --> 01:37:16,071
But even then, I think the Chinese are our friend there in the sense that...

2651
01:37:16,071 --> 01:37:17,351
It keeps things like a...

2652
01:37:17,351 --> 01:37:27,151
I think it's the incentives of Chinese and Chinese companies are not necessarily aligned with Wall Street.

2653
01:37:27,151 --> 01:37:33,371
Two last thoughts on that. It'd be interesting to get your take on the BCAP project if it changes at all as BlackRock accumulates more coins.

2654
01:37:34,111 --> 01:37:35,571
And second thing on the quantum thing,

2655
01:37:35,671 --> 01:37:38,011
I know way over time, so in a future episode,

2656
01:37:38,191 --> 01:37:41,191
I would like to see anyone that dismisses Nick's arguments

2657
01:37:41,191 --> 01:37:42,831
also be AGI-pilled.

2658
01:37:43,271 --> 01:37:45,711
One thing that I will say is I know Nick is AGI-pilled.

2659
01:37:46,231 --> 01:37:47,991
I know a lot of people that are debating him

2660
01:37:47,991 --> 01:37:48,871
are not AGI-pilled.

2661
01:37:49,011 --> 01:37:50,991
I would like to see a credible person

2662
01:37:50,991 --> 01:37:52,271
that disagrees with him

2663
01:37:52,271 --> 01:37:54,091
or is on the opposite side of alarmism

2664
01:37:54,091 --> 01:37:57,151
that also believes that we're not going to see AI

2665
01:37:57,151 --> 01:38:00,571
rapidly increasing all kinds of discoveries in mathematics,

2666
01:38:01,111 --> 01:38:03,211
technological breakthroughs like Matt said,

2667
01:38:03,211 --> 01:38:03,611
in healthcare

2668
01:38:03,611 --> 01:38:04,391
because I think

2669
01:38:04,391 --> 01:38:05,051
that's one area

2670
01:38:05,051 --> 01:38:06,011
where a lot of people

2671
01:38:06,011 --> 01:38:07,051
I disagree with

2672
01:38:07,051 --> 01:38:07,831
and I do agree with Nick.

2673
01:38:08,891 --> 01:38:09,331
Cool.

2674
01:38:09,631 --> 01:38:09,811
Cool.

2675
01:38:10,631 --> 01:38:11,011
All right.

2676
01:38:11,171 --> 01:38:11,371
Great.

2677
01:38:11,551 --> 01:38:12,171
Great episode.

2678
01:38:12,331 --> 01:38:12,871
Great year.

2679
01:38:13,131 --> 01:38:13,391
Yes.

2680
01:38:13,591 --> 01:38:13,831
Great.

2681
01:38:14,251 --> 01:38:14,771
Happy holidays.

2682
01:38:14,991 --> 01:38:16,191
Looking forward to 2026.

2683
01:38:16,351 --> 01:38:16,951
Until next time.

2684
01:38:17,251 --> 01:38:17,531
Hasta luego.

2685
01:38:17,991 --> 01:38:18,451
Later.

2686
01:38:18,811 --> 01:38:19,051
Bye-bye.