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we're in a period now that appears that we're sliding into stagflation.

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That is just an absolutely awful position to be in.

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This is abnormal to see stocks ripping to new highs

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and gold ripping to new highs at the same time.

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On a $2 trillion deficit, they still have to borrow.

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Unless they have inflation run to insane levels,

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they're still going to run in deficit,

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so they can't let it get out of control.

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Keep the charade going. Keep the Ponzi going.

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The question is, how hot will they let inflation run?

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That's the only question that's in my mind.

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If you have assets, it's great.

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If you don't, you're toast.

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The market, the street has just swallowed hundreds of thousands of OG coins that we know of.

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And the price didn't really move.

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We can hit 150, 180 by the year end.

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You know, it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

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Good to see you, man.

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How are you feeling?

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You feeling bullish?

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we're over 115k again good to see you danny uh yeah i mean i'm always bullish long term

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if you if you're your horizon is uh long enough then you're always bullish in bitcoin so

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it's funny like i i am i've been in this thing too long to panic over this whatever we had 15

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dip um but it was crazy to see how many people were panicking about it um and the one thing that

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does seem pretty clear is this cycle is completely different to anything we've had before it's been

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a complete grind it does it has it really hasn't had any of the euphoria sort of dopamine hit of

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previous cycles um what what do you think's happening well i mean first of all people have

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been frustrated just because they're i think they're a little bit fatigued it's just been a long

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grinding sideways summer you know um if you start out in in the late spring we were grinding from

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100 to 110. And then we ground all the way through until July. And then we started grinding from 110

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to 120. And now we're back around 110. Now, you know, a few days ago, and people like,

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what are we doing? Is this is it? Have we hit the if we hit the high? Is this cycle over?

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You know, like you said, is there no more cycles? Are there no more four year cycles? Like what's

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happening? And at the same time, you know, you had this, a little bit of euphoria around the,

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the Bitcoin treasury companies. And we can talk about that, but got ahead of themselves a little

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bit and they pulled back and people were, you know, getting fatigued about that and voicing

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their concerns about it. And I think that it's just the summer, you know, I mean, this happened

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so many years in my career, Danny, where we're just sitting here in the summer. It's like,

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where is everybody, what is going on? And we're at hedge funds. We're sitting at our desks every day.

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And there's nobody in Europe. There's nobody in Australia. Like everybody's just off on holiday

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And which is fine, you know, and they you should be. And we actually found that they have a robust, robust backup system there because people are forced to go away for weeks at a time. And so but if you want to trade in July, August, early September, good luck. There's nobody there. So but it's the same thing here in a way in that that's when people take off because their kids are off in school and all that.

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And so you have young executives who are young investors are taken off and they're just not they're not active as much.

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And so the volumes are way down.

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So if you look at Bitcoin, volumes have been really, really, really, really light.

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You know, I mean, they haven't been they just haven't there's been nothing that has been shocking.

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And even though they're really light, the the market, the street has just swallowed hundreds of thousands of OG coins that we know of.

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and that they've just like,

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and the price didn't really move, you know?

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I mean, a couple of percent, maybe.

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If you tried to sell 80,000 coins five years ago,

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what do you think would have happened?

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I've said it before on the pod.

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I think that is actually one of the most bullish signals

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we've had recently is that 80,000 coins hit the market

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and basically nothing happened.

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Like if you took a kind of US dollar equivalent of that in 2021,

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like the market is absolutely tanking.

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Okay, no way it could support that.

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Yeah.

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But it did just swallow them and just kept going, you know, just stay where it is.

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And so, you know, and you had some people that were also at the same time, Danny, they're selling Bitcoin to turn around and buy treasury companies and treasury companies get that capital, but they're not using it yet.

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Or they're getting capital from from private funds like mine and or hedge funds like mine.

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And they're they're not deploying it yet.

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They're not buying the Bitcoin yet.

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So capital is coming out of and, you know, we physically send Bitcoin to them or whatever.

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And so that's like there's there's either selling of of straight Bitcoin or just a pause in buying of it that that.

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And then because of the MNAV situation, if if you've got companies that are tapping the MNAV that tap in the ATM with their their market, you know, NAV to Bitcoin over one point five.

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And, you know, you're taking dollars out to buy these companies that would have otherwise probably just bought Bitcoin.

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So that's another, that's 33% of the capital that's not being used by Bitcoin.

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So it's just, it's been a weird period.

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But all that said, am I bullish?

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Yeah.

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And I'm actually bullish short term, too.

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I mean, now we're in a situation where all eyes are on the Fed.

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Like every single thing that happens on Wall Street is kind of centering around these economic indicators that are pointing to the Fed having to ease.

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And so that's going to that's, you know, it's priced into the market.

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Twenty five base points is priced in.

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You know, if you look at Fed fund futures today there, you know, you pull them up on Bloomberg.

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You're looking at it's over 100 percent probability there's a cut next week.

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what you're saying there about like the market volatility i think is pretty interesting in

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because like obviously all the speculators seem to have gone to these treasury companies

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and it's like something that i'm more and more convinced on is it that bitcoin isn't volatile

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enough anymore for these like retail nihilist speculators who just want to get like a thousand

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x on something um is that kind of lack of volatility in bitcoin do you think that is like

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we're at market maturation at least to a degree now and we're not going to see the same kind of

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volatility we've seen in the past. No, I still think we're going to see periods of volatility,

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extreme volatility when there's market drawdowns in particular, and then extreme volatility to the

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upside when there is a reaction to it from central banks. So I still think there's going to be

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volatility, but just we're in this period of summer doldrums, just quiet. It's just grinding

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sideways, waiting for something to happen, waiting for something to move. It's been mostly following

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expansion of global liquidity this whole time. It just lags by 10 or 12 weeks.

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One of the guys that I talked to, and I really respect his work, is Michael Howell

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of Cross Border Capital. And he writes these pieces. He's got a great substack. It's expensive,

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but to me, it's worth it. But he has a proprietary model, Danny, that measures how much

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liquidity there is in the globe, you know, around the world. What's important about this is it's not

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just M2. It's not just the money supply. The M2 is the largest component of it, but it's also

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just the amount of liquidity that's out there that is attached to things like debt. And so

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when you have, so he has this measurement and it's proprietary, and I don't know exactly what it is

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how he calculates it, but it includes things like volatility of bonds, because when bonds are very

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volatile, then your counterparty requires more, they require more collateral because of the

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volatility of the bond. And so that means that it takes liquidity out of the market, right? You have

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less leverage, so, or lower leverage. So that's one of the things he does. He looks at things like

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shadow banking, you know, the private credit and where that is going. So I really, I really do.

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I really do respect his work and follow that. But Bitcoin's been following it closely. Gold's

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gotten ahead of itself here, according to those measures. But, you know, Bitcoin has been following

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And I think that we're going to continue to expand liquidity here going into the fall and up to the at least the beginning of next year.

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So I'm not worried.

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The only thing that concerns me is some sort of black swan event that seems to come every seven to 10 years.

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That the 100 year event that comes every seven to 10 years now.

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liquidity with a slight lag is it sort of a hundred percent hit rate on that um it's not a

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hundred percent but it follows it in an extremely tight correlation meaning if if uh liquidity goes

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up steeply bitcoin goes up steeply lagging it by almost three months comes down if liquidity if

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liquidity is drawn out of the system it feels it so um it does the same thing and what's

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interesting about this is stocks do the same thing, equities, because people use those as places

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to tuck capital in order to protect it against inflation. You know, they use stocks, they use

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gold, now they use Bitcoin. So it's interesting, it's really, it's become one of the best,

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you know, closest correlated assets to liquidity, global liquidity, over the last couple of years.

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And what has global liquidity done recently? Is that now expanding again?

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It is. It is. It's not rapid, but it's still expanding. But you have these periods. So if you look at global liquidity, and Michael's thesis says that every six to seven years, the global liquidity goes in these cycles, right? Six or seven year cycle.

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We're coming to the end of this expansion of this cycle, which means that it's supposed to this cycle supposed to end at the end of this year, beginning of next year.

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So if you if you think that global liquidity starts to tighten, if if it's being drawn out, then at the beginning of next year, that would give Bitcoin to somewhere in the spring to summer to to kind of top out all things being equal.

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You know, does it follow up perfectly? No, of course not. It's Bitcoin. It sometimes wants to march a different way, but it typically does correlate to it over over those those long stretches.

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But are you pretty confident then that the liquidity cycle is going to sort of top out in that kind of time period?

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Because just on the sort of left end of the bell curve, where I like to firmly sit, the thing that seems likely to me is that Trump's going to run things incredibly hot going into sort of midterms, which wouldn't be until like, what is that this time next year?

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So could that liquidity cycle actually be elongated as well?

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Well, there's only so much he can do, right?

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But he can pull back on tariffs.

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He can, you know, he can sign into executive by using executive orders.

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He could sign something into practice with something that would be something would be spending, you know, but it's kind of hard to really change the big budget.

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I mean, the budget is the budget.

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He could he could go on some sort of hiring spree like Biden did through, you know, the executive branch.

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But, you know, by and large, I mean, of course, he could sign things into legislation like write off all the student loans.

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Well, that would be pretty inflationary, you know.

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It's a lot of loans. It's a lot of capital. Or do things with housing. It's true, he could. But how much is that lag and all that? I do agree with you, and he will put pressure on the Fed to be accommodative rather than restrictive.

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And so that is one thing that he has been doing and he'll continue to do. I believe that. And he'll get some other people around him to join in and pressure the Fed, too. But look, he's going to have his third appointee here pretty soon.

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And, you know, the Fed, you already had in the last meeting, you had two dissents, two Fed governors dissented the vote and they wanted to cut rates and the rest of them didn't.

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Well, now you have three.

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That was already almost unheard of, Danny.

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You don't have, like you get majority yes men on the Fed, you know.

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And so to have two dissents, that was like, whoa.

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And so now you're likely to have three. And so it's going to be difficult for you to have three doves on, you know, at least three on the Fed. And Powell is saying, no, we're going to hold strong. We're only going to cut once or whatever, you know. So I think that I do think it's going to continue to expand.

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Now, your question was, do I think that stops? It just stops. Well, I think it kind of, it slows down, it trickles out. Remember, all this stuff takes time to play out. So, but I don't know when that is. You know, it's hard to tell. We've got a lot of geopolitical things going on right now. And we do have something different going on. Like you suggested this last spring, I'll start with the tariffs. It's just, it's changed the market a little bit.

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and people are trying to figure out all these numbers and what they mean and how much impact

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it's had and is going to continue to have. So. Yeah. It's going to be interesting to see. So

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this show is actually going to go out on Tuesday next week, which is I think the first day of the

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FOMC meeting Um maybe before we get into what is likely to happen there we can talk a bit about what happened at Jackson Hole Cause I know you wrote a big piece on this and I not paid that much attention So explain what Jackson Hole is and then what happened this year

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Yeah.

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So Jackson Hole is, and, you know, I'll bring up my, do you have the newsletter?

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I do.

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Yeah.

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Do you want me to share it?

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Yeah.

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Perfect.

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Perfect.

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Okay.

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So Jackson Hole, what's Jackson Hole?

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Well, you know, used to be back way back when it used to be this this meeting they had kind of like it started back in the early 80s where you had the Fed, certain people from the Fed.

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And and then they invited some central bankers and bankers or whatever to this kind of outdoorsy off the off the street, you know, like out of D.C., out of Wall Street, just kind of sleepy little Jackson Hole, Wyoming town to just go and have some barbecue and shoot the bull.

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and it was called the Economic Policy Symposium, right?

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And it just grew into this behemoth of, you know,

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over the past 40 years, it grew into this behemoth of a meeting.

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It used to be where you might be able to talk to the Fed governor

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or chairman and get some off-the-cuff comments

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or something a little bit less guarded, you know,

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but it's turned into this thing where you've got this massive,

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very special invite list to go out to Jackson Hole

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and talk about the economy and central banking.

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And so now it's become something where this last Jackson Hole gathering

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is this is Powell's last hurrah,

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and it's his final chance to give the public, you know,

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a non-press conference scripted style of send-off to say,

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I think we did a good job, we've done a good job,

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we're doing a good job, and we're in good shape.

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And so you kind of expected that from him, right?

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What people were really hanging on,

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but now it's become, like I was saying,

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it's become so closely watched

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that the comments aren't quite as off the cuff

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in the Pretty Garden.

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And so it's very deliberate.

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everything he says, you know.

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So it's basically like an official meeting now.

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Yeah, it's because there's no podium.

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I can't remember if there was a podium here,

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but there was no podium and he's just talking

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kind of in his Western shirt off the cuff,

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but it's not off the cuff.

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So, and the issue here this year

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is going into that, going to Jackson Hole,

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you had over 80% of people.

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So Fed funds showed an over 80% chance

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that we would be getting a rate cut, right?

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So, and we had, you know,

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we had that PPI shock that came out.

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And so they kind of,

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they pushed up all the way up to 100% odds

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because we had benign inflation.

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Then we had a terrible PPI print that came out.

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So they went back down to about 80, 85%.

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But anyways, there's some conflicting data coming through.

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So people are like, well, what's he going to say?

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What are they focused on?

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And so the most likely thing for him to say was that, look, we're data dependent, but inflation seems to be in check and we're kind of turning our attention toward unemployment now or the employment.

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So you know this, the Fed has two kind of, they have two mandates. And the first one is stable pricing, which is what they have, they've quoted as 2% inflation target, you know, and that's their mandate.

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And then the second one is full employment, whatever that is. We don't know what that is. It's just, does it feel like it's full? I guess it is, you know. But that's the second is just try to get full employment, whatever that is.

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So what that really means is that, hey, be ready with the fire hose, with the money bazooka if we see an uptick in a steep rise in unemployment, because that means that we are in a recession. We got to turn it back around.

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So he came out and basically said, he said, you know, we're going to, we're data dependent, but we're going to, we're more focused on inflation or more focused on the employment side of things right now.

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And then sure enough, just a few weeks later, we get our confirmation that employment's not that great.

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It does look like it's rolling over.

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we revised out 900,000 jobs over the course of 2024 to beginning of 2025. The year ends in March

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when they're measuring that. And, you know, it was kind of that that immediately just said,

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okay, that's it. We're, we're getting a cut in September. And that's what the market is telling,

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telling the Fed telling Powell that that they that's what they expect. And so that's kind of

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what after that, after that meeting, it was, it was more or less cemented that, yeah, we're going

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to get 25 basis points, but not 50. And we're just going to have to see where we are after that.

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Now it's flash forward to today. And we had those, we had a, um, a bad, we had a, um,

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bad meaning a, uh, not a, a great, uh, PPI print, meaning prices were not as inflated as people

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think, which means, uh-oh, the producers can't pass this along. They may be struggling to pass

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on to the consumer, which means the consumer is getting tired. And then we had kind of a benign

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CPI print. Was this in like the August data? Like I think PPI was disinflationary. It was like

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minus 0.01%. Is that right? Yeah, exactly. And then turned around this month and it was,

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you know, so if you look at just a couple days ago, let's see if I can pull it up here, the PPI

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from, let's see, I think it was on Tuesday, maybe, or Wednesday. So they were expecting 0.3%

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and it came in at negative 0.1%. So that's the one that you're quoting. And then they're expecting

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3.3% on total year over year, and it came at 2.6%. So people are like, oh man, that means that

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they're not able to pass it on. That means CPI is probably not going to be that bad. And it wasn't,

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it's not great. It's still inflation, still 3% inflation, but it's not bad enough. It gives the

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Fed enough cover to go ahead and cut 25 basis points. That's where kind of the market is now.

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So the market's at 25 basis point cut rather than 50 as of right now.

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Right. So that's what I was starting to say before is that right now there's 110% chance that there's a cut this next week. So what does that mean? That means that there's like a 10% chance that there's a 50 basis point cut, right? So one cut is 25 basis points. So that means that there's like a 10%, if it's 110% chance, it's a 10% chance there's a 50 basis point cut. Not going to happen. I just don't see that.

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you know, unless there's an emergency that happens this weekend, but there's nothing.

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So we got the unemployment numbers.

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We've got what we've got.

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They know what they know, and that's going to be a 25 basis point cut.

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So now all eyes are on the Fed, Danny.

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Why?

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Because you also have an 88% chance that there's a cut in October and a 92% chance there's a cut in December.

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So people are basically expecting three cuts between now and the end of the year.

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so what what people are going to do now and here's the important thing for next week's meeting

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is you're going to hear Powell he's going to say we you know uh we're we had we feel inflation's

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under control we're headed toward our two percent target we're not we're between two and three

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percent we're going to stay there I think uh and then the second side he's going to say but

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we, you know, employment is where it appears the jobs market is softening, you know, slightly or

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something, you know. And so they're going to get ahead of that and they're going to cut. And then

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he's going to say, but we're data dependent and we're going to wait for more information to come in

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to decide what the policy is going forward. We're not going to commit to a series of cuts. We're

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just not going to commit to it. Because what happens, Danny, like here's the issue. And this

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is why all eyes are on the Fed. And now we have a situation where you've got people saying, well,

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it's going to be three cuts to the end of the year. There's going to be four or five cuts,

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like people are kind of a little bit in between there. But the issue is that what does the Fed do

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now? Because inflation is still, I mean, prices are still rising. We still have inflation.

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Well, you know, we were, Danny, we have year over year, the CPI number, the number they use, which we know is problematic, but this is what they're looking at. It's still 2.9%. That's not 2%. And, you know, this has been actually, if you look back, it bottomed out and it's been rising since earlier this year.

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so now it's back up from you know 2.4 percent or 2.2.3 to 2.4 percent up to back up to 2.9

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percent it's the wrong direction you know so you can't say that it's it is headed the right it's

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actually headed the wrong direction but he'll say it feels like it's under control or it's in it's in

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a range that they're comfortable with or whatever um they're they're just turning their attention to

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unemployment, but here's the issue. So people are like, okay, that's great. So now we've got

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prices still rising. The jobs market is softening. And you guys are so far behind the ball that

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what the heck is 25 basis points going to do to help the jobs market? It's not. They know that.

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We know that. But what the 25 basis point cut will do pretty quickly is it will loosen up credit

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makes it make it a little bit easier to get some credit. And so that's actually inflationary. Now,

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I believe that we're above the neutral rate still. So it's not yet accommodative. I think

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you're still tightening, but there's there there are structural issues here with inflation.

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There could be a lot of reason about reasons behind it and around it, which part of it likely

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tariffs and how much is being passed on to consumers and and how much that's affecting

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pricing, that's likely part of it. And how long, how many effects it has? Is it just a one-time

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thing? No, not really. It will have echo effects on it that we're not sure about. But that's one

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thing. But, you know, we have, you've got these high interest rates on money market accounts that

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boomers are sitting on and they're just spending like mad. So if you look at the consumer as a whole,

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you've got the fed saying the consumer is still strong yeah maybe as all if you look at 100 of

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them but if you take out the top 10 how strong is the consumer really we don't know what we do know

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is that credit card delinquencies are now at 12.3 percent i'm sorry 90 day um delinquencies

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are are up to 12.3 percent so people have not paid their credit card bill for 90 days

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they're just about you know they're less than one percent away from where the peak of the great

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financial crisis that's crazy that is a red flag what like so i obviously again i read the newsletter

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you did on this um and i saw that the consumer debt is now like 18.5 trillion or something like

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that, which is absolutely insane. But what would like a normal delinquency rate be? Because I've

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no idea about that. Yeah. I mean, if you're looking at a typical period that we're not

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really rising or falling, or we're just kind of, you know, we're kind of just clunking along.

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I mean, it should be somewhere around five to 7% ish, you know, for credit cards. Because

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typically the people who use credit cards are lower income and they they're using it to bridge

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a gap of of spending and and and it and it catches up to them because you know these rates can be

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20 25 30 percent 29.95 you know and um and it kills you it really destroys you um as a as a

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individual or consumer so but here's the crazy thing danny as that credit card debt is is that

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that 90-day delinquency is rising up toward, and okay, two things. Number one, these are numbers

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from the New York Fed, but they're from the end of June. Like, we're already lagging. That's,

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this is second quarter number, right? So, we're already lagging, you know, where we are here. So,

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that's number one. Number two, this also has that student loan delinquencies are up over 10%.

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10%. So who's not paying student loans? The young people, lower demographic, likely,

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who already have credit card debt. So how bad would the credit card delinquencies be if they

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were paying their loans? But these people are just taking a sabbatical on them. They're like,

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ah, no, the government's not going to make me pay this off. I'm going to get this for free.

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I'm not going to pay this. So what happens if they are forced to pay them or they start going

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bankrupt? Well, they're going to write off their credit card debt. They're going to run,

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like there'll be some there'll be some casualties there so that's what i'm looking and really what

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what this says is it doesn't say that the whole democrat the whole economy is bad this is saying

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that there are people down there in the lower demographic who are really struggling bitcoin is

320
00:30:56,707 --> 00:31:01,827
absolutely ripping and in every bull market there's always a new wave of investors and with it a flood

321
00:31:01,827 --> 00:31:06,267
of new companies new products and new promises but if you've been around long enough you've seen how

322
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this story ends for a lot of them. Some cut corners, take risks with your money or just disappear.

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355
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Yeah, it's crazy that they can say with a straight face that the sort of the consumer market is doing well,

356
00:33:35,134 --> 00:33:38,714
because all you have to do is spend five minutes talking to people and you know that's not the case.

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People are really struggling. And is the problem that they're kind of faced with here that if they

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do cut rates, it doesn't actually make any meaningful difference to the people, like to

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jobs and things like that. And instead, it does just cause asset prices to pump and then inflation

360
00:33:53,514 --> 00:34:00,734
quite quickly. Well, I mean, our economy is very financialized, right? So you've got to it. So

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So now, so we're getting into the crux of it.

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So we're in a period now that appears

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that we're sliding into stagflation.

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We don't know for sure,

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but it appears that that's where we're headed.

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And where you have rising prices

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and you've got a softening economy,

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you've got a softening job market.

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00:34:18,914 --> 00:34:23,034
And that is just an absolutely awful position

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to be in as an economy and as the Fed.

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Like, what can they do?

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If they lower interest rates,

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00:34:30,014 --> 00:34:39,234
dramatically, well, that could create more upward pricing pressure and rising prices and more

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inflation. And it could lag so much it doesn't really help the job market yet. So then you still,

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00:34:45,514 --> 00:34:49,574
you have even worsening price where you've got rising prices, softening job market,

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00:34:50,274 --> 00:34:56,994
and everything is, and that's a really difficult position for the middle class in particular to be

377
00:34:56,994 --> 00:35:04,934
in, you know, middle and lower demographics. So we get back in the 80s. I mean, the 80s were awful.

378
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I mean, I lived through it. It was brutal. We had to wait in line for three hours to get one tank of

379
00:35:11,454 --> 00:35:16,654
gas every two weeks because, you know, if your license plate ended in an odd number, then this

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00:35:16,654 --> 00:35:23,994
is your week. And even though next week is your week. And so it was and it was tough, you know,

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We felt the pinch hard and we weren't wealthy, so we felt it. So that's a terrible position for the Fed to be in. So why do we see what is going on in the market? And that's why you've got gold ripping to new highs and asset prices like stocks and Bitcoin bumbling around or creating new highs.

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or bumbling around new highs or creating new highs.

383
00:35:52,594 --> 00:35:55,134
And so you've got two different things going on.

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00:35:55,354 --> 00:35:58,754
This is abnormal to see stocks ripping to new highs

385
00:35:58,754 --> 00:36:01,034
and gold ripping to new highs at the same time.

386
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But it's telling you that there's a strong worry

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about inflation and stagflation.

388
00:36:07,254 --> 00:36:10,374
And at the same time that stocks are saying,

389
00:36:10,634 --> 00:36:12,054
we're going to see liquidity here.

390
00:36:12,114 --> 00:36:13,594
We're going to see expansion of liquidity

391
00:36:13,594 --> 00:36:15,634
and everything's okay, at least for now.

392
00:36:15,634 --> 00:36:21,834
so it's kind of a weird place for everybody to be and that's why everybody is watching the fed so

393
00:36:21,834 --> 00:36:27,974
closely they're trying to figure out what what does this mean so like regardless of what powell

394
00:36:27,974 --> 00:36:32,674
may do because we know he's been pretty hawkish for a long time now um is there anything the fed

395
00:36:32,674 --> 00:36:36,754
could do to try and get this under control or is this just a sort of nothing stop this train

396
00:36:36,754 --> 00:36:41,954
narrative and and they're stuck between a rock and a hard place they're really stuck i mean okay

397
00:36:41,954 --> 00:36:49,654
so what else could you do? They've got really, they've got two levers plus quasi levers,

398
00:36:49,814 --> 00:36:54,294
which are acronyms. They've got two levers. They get interest rates. You can raise or lower the

399
00:36:54,294 --> 00:37:00,214
target rate of Fed funds overnight rate, which kind of keys at least the short end of the curve.

400
00:37:00,574 --> 00:37:04,514
They've lost the long end or they never really had control of it. So it's not really fair to say

401
00:37:04,514 --> 00:37:10,634
they lost it. I mean, the long end is the long end. It bakes in a lot of expectations of long-term

402
00:37:10,634 --> 00:37:18,614
inflation or economic uncertainty. And so it's hard to tell where that long end, it's hard for

403
00:37:18,614 --> 00:37:24,894
the Fed to do anything about the long end, except when they start doing QE and QT, where they can be

404
00:37:24,894 --> 00:37:29,634
buying and selling the long end of the curve to kind of keep it in a range if they wanted to,

405
00:37:30,054 --> 00:37:36,314
which is something called yield curve control. But they're in a tough spot here, Danny, because,

406
00:37:36,314 --> 00:37:43,454
okay, so what do they do? Lower rates, you could have more inflation. Don't lower rates,

407
00:37:43,974 --> 00:37:50,214
keep doing QT, and you could have the job market fall apart. Well, we have heard Powell say before

408
00:37:50,214 --> 00:37:57,914
that he's more comfortable with that set of problems than the other set, which is what

409
00:37:57,914 --> 00:38:03,394
Volcker had to come in and deal with back in the 80s. And you've heard, you know, basically,

410
00:38:03,394 --> 00:38:10,014
You've heard Powell trying to invoke Volcker to say, I'm going to be like him.

411
00:38:10,074 --> 00:38:11,134
I'm not going to be like Burns.

412
00:38:11,634 --> 00:38:13,934
I'm not going to let this inflation run out of control.

413
00:38:14,234 --> 00:38:20,294
I'm going to keep a lid on it, even if it means that the job market suffers from it.

414
00:38:20,434 --> 00:38:24,334
And we have some casualties there with the job, with unemployment.

415
00:38:25,254 --> 00:38:27,054
Why is he okay with that?

416
00:38:27,374 --> 00:38:31,314
He's okay with that because he knows he could turn around and flood the market with capital

417
00:38:31,314 --> 00:38:33,014
and shore it back up.

418
00:38:33,394 --> 00:38:42,154
And they would rather have a situation where they don't let inflation get out of control,

419
00:38:42,734 --> 00:38:51,474
rage out of control, which that would create a problem with the borrowing, the amount of interest

420
00:38:51,474 --> 00:39:00,174
they have to pay on borrowing because the government is running on a $2 trillion deficit.

421
00:39:00,294 --> 00:39:01,214
They still have to borrow.

422
00:39:01,214 --> 00:39:22,694
And so unless they have inflation run to insane levels, they're still going to run in deficit, so they can't let it get out of control. So what's the other side of that? Well, you could do QT or QE. Well, what happens, Danny, if they start printing money and buying bonds in the open market again?

423
00:39:22,694 --> 00:39:27,334
you know is there any talk of that is that even likely because i don't hear much about that

424
00:39:27,334 --> 00:39:34,054
no there's no talk of it yet but here's the point is that it's very difficult but he's more

425
00:39:34,054 --> 00:39:38,834
comfortable he said they they have tools to deal with that there's the exact quote we have tools

426
00:39:38,834 --> 00:39:42,434
to deal with that meaning we could just flood the market with capital like we've done before like we

427
00:39:42,434 --> 00:39:48,794
did the great financial crisis like we didn't in 2021 22 you know um they they're more comfortable

428
00:39:48,794 --> 00:39:54,674
with that because in the long run, just allowing for the expansion of the money supply or pushing

429
00:39:54,674 --> 00:39:58,374
for more expansion of the money supply, not just out of creation of debt through banks,

430
00:39:58,394 --> 00:40:01,794
but actually going out there and printing money and buying bonds in the open market,

431
00:40:02,354 --> 00:40:07,974
that in and of itself means that you debase a currency and you make it easier to pay back old

432
00:40:07,974 --> 00:40:12,874
debt. Like it's a playbook. It's what they want to do. The question is how hot will they let

433
00:40:12,874 --> 00:40:17,474
inflation run? That's the only question that's in my mind. They're going to have to let it run.

434
00:40:17,474 --> 00:40:22,514
just how hot? We don't know. If you had to speculate on that, what would you guess? Like,

435
00:40:23,254 --> 00:40:26,554
do you think anything under sort of 5% they'll be okay with?

436
00:40:27,974 --> 00:40:33,634
Anything under 4%, I think they're going to be okay with. They start getting really nervous. If

437
00:40:33,634 --> 00:40:41,514
it ticks up here, three and a half, three, three, seven, they're going to get nervous. But no, I mean,

438
00:40:41,514 --> 00:40:48,394
And I do think, Danny, that we will get into a situation where the economy will grind lower.

439
00:40:49,134 --> 00:40:52,834
And whether we have, it's when do we have the next event?

440
00:40:53,554 --> 00:40:55,914
Like, what is the next Silicon Valley Bank?

441
00:40:55,914 --> 00:41:02,974
When is the next, you know, Ukraine that bleeds out into a larger global crisis?

442
00:41:02,974 --> 00:41:09,814
this. When is the next, you know, market shock for something that we can't even dream of because

443
00:41:09,814 --> 00:41:16,414
that's why it's called a black swan. So that's the question. And when that happens,

444
00:41:16,974 --> 00:41:21,394
they're not going to just print another four or five trillion. They're going to be printing,

445
00:41:21,754 --> 00:41:28,914
you know, seven, eight, 10, 12 trillion, in my opinion, to shore it up because the leverage is

446
00:41:28,914 --> 00:41:38,894
that much larger now. We are so indebted. We have $324 trillion of debt out there. The entire world

447
00:41:38,894 --> 00:41:51,134
is indebted. So that denominator has just created a problem. And so you're going to have to print

448
00:41:51,134 --> 00:41:54,734
more. And when you do print more, that just means higher inflation. So what are they going to be

449
00:41:54,734 --> 00:42:00,734
comfortable with, I think under 4%, they would likely be comfortable with, they wouldn't panic,

450
00:42:01,694 --> 00:42:05,934
but they're going to create where we're not going to have 9% inflation. We might have 12,

451
00:42:05,934 --> 00:42:10,814
15, 18% inflation for a period of time. It's going to be, and it's going to take some,

452
00:42:11,454 --> 00:42:15,054
it's going to be very painful for some people. So.

453
00:42:15,054 --> 00:42:21,054
Is there a really like weird perverse incentive here where they're kind of desperate for the next

454
00:42:21,054 --> 00:42:23,774
Black Swan to give them an excuse to do something more drastic?

455
00:42:23,774 --> 00:42:28,174
I'm not that cynical, so I hope not.

456
00:42:28,174 --> 00:42:32,694
I'm not saying they create it, but like, are they looking for an opportunity to do something

457
00:42:32,694 --> 00:42:33,694
more drastic?

458
00:42:33,694 --> 00:42:42,694
Well, I mean, um, look, we know the incentive of our leaders is to get reelected.

459
00:42:42,694 --> 00:42:46,254
It's a structural problem in Congress that we have no term limits, Danny.

460
00:42:46,254 --> 00:42:49,854
So their only incentive truly is to get reelected.

461
00:42:49,854 --> 00:42:55,314
And that means to tow the party line, get the party support, and all shore each other up.

462
00:42:55,574 --> 00:43:03,634
Whatever that party line is, they got to say it in order to, you know, get reelected, which is extremely polarizing in this country.

463
00:43:04,894 --> 00:43:06,254
But they'll do that.

464
00:43:06,714 --> 00:43:08,614
And so that's their incentive.

465
00:43:08,974 --> 00:43:12,914
That means that they're not going to cut spending for their demographic.

466
00:43:13,914 --> 00:43:19,194
And it also means that they're likely not going to raise taxes on their demographic.

467
00:43:19,914 --> 00:43:23,554
So those are two solutions that are pretty much taken off the table.

468
00:43:24,114 --> 00:43:26,974
They try to trick each other into doing those things, but they don't do it.

469
00:43:27,034 --> 00:43:30,734
So those are two solutions to the debt problem taken off the table.

470
00:43:31,214 --> 00:43:34,254
The third solution is just allow for inflation and not worry about it.

471
00:43:34,634 --> 00:43:41,674
Just make sure that it's not so bad that people are up in arms over it.

472
00:43:41,674 --> 00:43:44,414
They don't want people revolting over it.

473
00:43:45,654 --> 00:43:48,774
So that's the true incentive.

474
00:43:48,774 --> 00:44:08,034
So when you ask, do they want something? Well, I think what the Treasury wants is for Congress to figure out how to rein in spending somehow. That's why they keep putting out pieces that are like, hey, look, we can't keep doing this. This is unsustainable, but good luck. I just described why the incentives are wrong. It's not going to happen.

475
00:44:08,034 --> 00:44:27,954
So, yeah, so here's the issue and why they wouldn't want, they don't want to have something catastrophic because when you have something catastrophic, your deficit blows out and it could be multiples of what it was.

476
00:44:27,954 --> 00:44:57,554
If you just do the simple math, we spend $7 trillion. Most of that we're spending on programs that are signed into legislation. They're mandatory spending, right? So Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and then you've got defense spending, which is not going to get cut. And you've got your debt. You have to pay the interest rate on your debt. And that's over a trillion dollars now.

477
00:44:57,554 --> 00:45:10,014
So when you add those up, you know, you're you're already at over five trillion dollars. You're you're over five and a half or six, six trillion dollars. So even if you cut out all the other spending, it doesn't leave much left.

478
00:45:10,014 --> 00:45:32,614
Yeah. But when you do go into a steep drawdown, because we're so financialized and because you see jobs just get, you know, the jobs fall off a cliff when you have some sort of black swan driven event that I don't even know if we could tell we could say the housing crisis of black swan because a lot of people saw it.

479
00:45:32,614 --> 00:45:33,854
They just, most people ignored it.

480
00:45:33,954 --> 00:45:35,874
But when you have something like that happen,

481
00:45:35,974 --> 00:45:38,034
you fall into a great recession like that.

482
00:45:38,034 --> 00:45:41,034
Well, what happens to your denominator in your numerator?

483
00:45:41,214 --> 00:45:45,274
So you've got, first of all, you've got your spending

484
00:45:45,274 --> 00:45:48,114
that $7 trillion could go up

485
00:45:48,114 --> 00:45:49,814
by somewhere between 10 and 20%.

486
00:45:49,814 --> 00:45:52,314
If it's really bad, say it's 20%.

487
00:45:52,314 --> 00:45:54,414
Well, now you're spending $8.4 trillion.

488
00:45:55,074 --> 00:45:59,934
And then you turn around and on the revenue side

489
00:45:59,934 --> 00:46:02,474
for Congress or for the treasury, sorry,

490
00:46:02,614 --> 00:46:10,314
is $5 trillion. Well, you could have a 10 or 20% drawdown there. So let's say it's 20% and you get

491
00:46:10,314 --> 00:46:18,654
$4 trillion. Well, now your deficit is, you know, what did we just say? 8.4 minus 5, you're at $3.4

492
00:46:18,654 --> 00:46:23,794
trillion. You've almost doubled your deficit on a drawdown. So they can't really have that

493
00:46:23,794 --> 00:46:29,274
because now you're spending, now you're borrowing over $3 trillion a year, which we're already

494
00:46:29,274 --> 00:46:34,654
spending over two, you know, and those numbers could easily get out of hand really quickly.

495
00:46:35,154 --> 00:46:40,634
And so, um, they, they can't really have that. And that's why they turn around the money bazooka

496
00:46:40,634 --> 00:46:47,274
and they try to stop that as quickly as they can. Um, but, and that's, and so do I think that they,

497
00:46:47,354 --> 00:46:52,494
they secretly cheer it on? No, because of that one issue right there, even a V drawdown, it is

498
00:46:52,494 --> 00:46:57,374
painful. And so they got to hurry up and get money out there in order to monetize their own debt

499
00:46:57,374 --> 00:47:02,954
and make sure that you get more money out into the market and keep the charade going,

500
00:47:03,194 --> 00:47:11,514
keep the Ponzi going. I mean, it's insane. Is there almost like a gravity to close to 0%

501
00:47:11,514 --> 00:47:14,914
interest rates here that they're constantly trying to fight? Because it seems like all

502
00:47:14,914 --> 00:47:20,074
they have left is really to cut rates. Do you think we'll see sort of close to 0% interest

503
00:47:20,074 --> 00:47:26,314
rates again in like the midterm, like let's say the next five years? I mean, in the next five

504
00:47:26,314 --> 00:47:30,274
years, yeah, I could see it's going all the way back down to 1% or so. I could see that.

505
00:47:31,234 --> 00:47:34,834
You know, it depends on the, of course, it depends on the economy and just how

506
00:47:34,834 --> 00:47:42,034
deflationary things like AI start becoming and how many jobs are rearranged, you know.

507
00:47:42,034 --> 00:47:46,194
But their incentive, like, especially when you talk about the interest on the debt payment as

508
00:47:46,194 --> 00:47:48,894
part of the budget, like, they need to get that as low as possible.

509
00:47:48,894 --> 00:48:05,234
Well, you heard Scott Bessent last year just absolutely hammering Janet Yellen about not terming out the debt, which meant that he was like, you had your chance to term out the debt and you didn't do it.

510
00:48:05,354 --> 00:48:06,734
Okay, what does he mean by that?

511
00:48:06,734 --> 00:48:12,274
Well, so she was the chair of the Fed once.

512
00:48:12,394 --> 00:48:16,334
So she knew exactly what was going on when they printed that $5 trillion.

513
00:48:16,334 --> 00:48:20,994
dollars. Like she knew exactly what would happen, that there would be inflation, that they would

514
00:48:20,994 --> 00:48:25,254
have to raise rates, and that would cause a problem for the treasury. Yet she didn't turn

515
00:48:25,254 --> 00:48:31,934
out the debt. She kept issuing the same levels all along. She could have been issuing longer term

516
00:48:31,934 --> 00:48:39,994
debt at much lower rates, but she didn't do it. And so then Scott saw that the Fed lowered rates

517
00:48:39,994 --> 00:48:45,794
by 50 basis points. He's like, oh, here we go. I'm going to be able to get my debt turned out,

518
00:48:45,794 --> 00:48:52,054
termed out pretty quickly here. And so he started really hammering her and saying,

519
00:48:52,134 --> 00:48:55,094
we're going to solve this problem. We're going to be the ones who solve this problem.

520
00:48:55,694 --> 00:49:12,621
And he came in and nothing against Scott being like this is just the reality of it The Fed was like nope we done cutting rates Now that Trump in office let see what happens We think that these tariffs are going to be inflationary so we got to hold off and see what happens Well they should have been cutting rates

521
00:49:12,741 --> 00:49:16,721
If you're looking at the jobs numbers, they should have been cutting rates this

522
00:49:16,721 --> 00:49:21,641
past summer, June and July. They should have been cutting rates there, but they didn't.

523
00:49:22,041 --> 00:49:27,921
And here they are. So he didn't get his chance and he's been frustrated. They've all been

524
00:49:27,921 --> 00:49:31,621
frustrated. They want the Fed to start lowering rates and do exactly what you said. But here's

525
00:49:31,621 --> 00:49:36,581
the issue, Danny. Like I said, they're not setting the 10-year. What happened when they cut rates

526
00:49:36,581 --> 00:49:45,721
by 50 basis points back in the fall of 2024? Well, they cut by 50 basis points and the 10-year

527
00:49:45,721 --> 00:49:51,061
yield went up by 50 basis points. It went the opposite direction. Why did it do that? Because

528
00:49:51,061 --> 00:49:55,441
the market knew that it was kind of a political move here for them to say, yes, we conquered

529
00:49:55,441 --> 00:49:59,861
inflation, you know, all's good right before the election. I mean, it was ridiculous. Let's just

530
00:49:59,861 --> 00:50:05,641
call it what it is. And then to just stop. You don't do that. You don't just cut 50 basis points

531
00:50:05,641 --> 00:50:11,481
and stop. That's not what you do. You cut 25 and wait. Or you cut 50 basis points quickly because

532
00:50:11,481 --> 00:50:15,721
you're going to cut another 50 and then 25 after that really quick. You're going to be really

533
00:50:15,721 --> 00:50:22,621
ratcheting down. They didn't do that. So it was an odd move. If you go back in time and look at

534
00:50:22,621 --> 00:50:33,241
the way the Fed makes their moves, it was odd. So, you know, so that was the Fed then turned

535
00:50:33,241 --> 00:50:37,081
around and said, no, we're going to wait and see if these tariffs are inflationary. We're going to

536
00:50:37,081 --> 00:50:41,941
be data dependent here. Well, now they've got themselves really painted, you know, into a

537
00:50:41,941 --> 00:50:46,901
corner. So we'll see what happens. But they should have been cutting already. But the problem is,

538
00:50:46,941 --> 00:50:52,101
I think they're really scared about that inflation. We saw it get up to over 9% that they

539
00:50:52,101 --> 00:50:58,081
admitted to. Yeah. And realistically, it was probably 15 or more. Well, I can tell you they

540
00:50:58,081 --> 00:51:04,081
tried to double my auto insurance this year just because they just tried to. And I was like,

541
00:51:04,201 --> 00:51:12,821
I had no speeding tickets, no accidents. I mean, perfect record. I'm a middle-aged male driver,

542
00:51:12,821 --> 00:51:17,621
which I'm like, I'm the right demographic here. And you're trying to double my rates? Like,

543
00:51:17,621 --> 00:51:19,761
this is just insane, you know?

544
00:51:20,001 --> 00:51:21,341
So in one year.

545
00:51:21,861 --> 00:51:23,441
So it's kind of crazy.

546
00:51:24,321 --> 00:51:25,781
One of the really interesting things

547
00:51:25,781 --> 00:51:27,061
that Scott Percent came out and said,

548
00:51:27,261 --> 00:51:28,101
I don't know, this was probably

549
00:51:28,101 --> 00:51:29,321
three or four days ago now,

550
00:51:29,741 --> 00:51:31,841
was he blamed the Fed

551
00:51:31,841 --> 00:51:35,221
on the wealth inequality in the US.

552
00:51:35,541 --> 00:51:36,701
And again, like as Bitcoin,

553
00:51:36,781 --> 00:51:37,921
is this something people have been talking about

554
00:51:37,921 --> 00:51:38,481
for a long time?

555
00:51:38,541 --> 00:51:39,281
We know this.

556
00:51:39,801 --> 00:51:42,021
But it was interesting to hear him come out and say it.

557
00:51:42,101 --> 00:51:43,621
Do you think that was

558
00:51:43,621 --> 00:51:46,241
kind of just political posturing?

559
00:51:46,381 --> 00:51:47,601
Because again, they just want to ratchet up,

560
00:51:47,621 --> 00:51:53,061
pressure on drowin powell or do you think there is a meaningful like demand for change there

561
00:51:53,061 --> 00:51:58,421
there's a truth to it there is a truth to it i don't know um i honestly i don't know scott

562
00:51:58,421 --> 00:52:04,801
well enough um i mean i don't know him personally um to know what his real intentions are on on

563
00:52:04,801 --> 00:52:11,761
changing the nature of the fed but uh you know he's a wall street guy he knows exactly what's

564
00:52:11,761 --> 00:52:17,481
been going on he's seen in all his career he is right and so whether or not he's trying to

565
00:52:17,481 --> 00:52:24,141
really change it. He's right. The Fed manipulating the money supply, manipulating access to capital

566
00:52:24,141 --> 00:52:33,401
has absolutely caused what's called the Cantillon effect, you know? And so, and that comes from

567
00:52:33,401 --> 00:52:39,521
this economist Cantillon who figured out that those who are closest to the money spigot

568
00:52:39,521 --> 00:52:45,701
benefit the most. And so who is that? Those are JP Morgans and hedge funds of the world,

569
00:52:45,701 --> 00:52:58,121
And they really benefit from this. And the people who have capital, the wealthier demographic who have capital that are with those banks.

570
00:52:58,121 --> 00:53:03,261
that are, yeah, assets. They have assets, that's right, too, and investments that are with those

571
00:53:03,261 --> 00:53:10,981
large banks, that are with the Fidelis, that they're benefiting from that expansion of the

572
00:53:10,981 --> 00:53:15,701
money supply because it goes into their assets and it goes right to their bottom line.

573
00:53:16,561 --> 00:53:21,201
It's super interesting. The probably one question that I would have to ask is,

574
00:53:21,581 --> 00:53:25,201
like this whole conversation really has been about the Fed. Does the Fed even matter anymore

575
00:53:25,201 --> 00:53:28,821
in any meaningful way, or is it just a signal to the market?

576
00:53:30,221 --> 00:53:31,681
Oh, no, sure, they matter, absolutely.

577
00:53:32,841 --> 00:53:33,401
Absolutely.

578
00:53:33,761 --> 00:53:35,201
In fact, they matter way too much.

579
00:53:35,561 --> 00:53:38,781
You know, they control the overnight lending rate

580
00:53:38,781 --> 00:53:41,161
that all these banks are tied to.

581
00:53:41,981 --> 00:53:45,921
So that creates a situation where we don't have much,

582
00:53:46,021 --> 00:53:48,741
we don't have much capital in the reverse repo anymore.

583
00:53:48,901 --> 00:53:50,381
There's, it's actually drained,

584
00:53:50,381 --> 00:53:54,581
but it does, it causes the cost of capital

585
00:53:54,581 --> 00:54:01,361
go up for everything. Um, so, you know, uh, that's, that's one thing. And then actually

586
00:54:01,361 --> 00:54:06,861
flooding the market with money or siphoning it out, you're manipulating the money supply.

587
00:54:06,981 --> 00:54:11,481
It's like you going into the middle of it. We're all playing monopoly. We're all on the board.

588
00:54:12,201 --> 00:54:18,561
And, you know, if, if you already own most of the hotels and I don't own any, and you,

589
00:54:18,561 --> 00:54:26,521
all of a sudden you flood the market with money,

590
00:54:26,601 --> 00:54:28,621
meaning you put more money in the bank,

591
00:54:28,981 --> 00:54:31,141
it's just going to benefit you, you know?

592
00:54:31,461 --> 00:54:34,321
And so you're just printing more Monopoly money.

593
00:54:34,681 --> 00:54:36,601
But you take it out, it's going to, you know,

594
00:54:36,801 --> 00:54:38,481
that's the thing.

595
00:54:38,561 --> 00:54:42,261
It's like you're injecting and taking out money in this game

596
00:54:42,261 --> 00:54:46,041
and it affects different people, different players in a different way.

597
00:54:46,101 --> 00:54:47,061
If you have assets, it's great.

598
00:54:47,061 --> 00:54:48,621
If you don't, you're toast.

599
00:54:48,981 --> 00:54:56,261
It just causes rises of pricing, rising in prices, and then you don't have the money to keep up.

600
00:54:56,261 --> 00:55:12,481
And the problem with the lower demographic, right, is that every incremental rise in everyday goods is painful for them because the vast majority of their paycheck is going to those things.

601
00:55:12,521 --> 00:55:16,001
It's going to rent and gas and food, you know.

602
00:55:16,001 --> 00:55:24,581
And energy, they're air conditioning if they're in a hot climate or they're heating if they're in a cold climate.

603
00:55:24,741 --> 00:55:32,321
And it's painful for them because it means they have no discretionary income to go do anything else or to invest.

604
00:55:33,001 --> 00:55:41,061
And so when you have the wealthy demographic is like, oh, man, the gas is now $4 at the pump.

605
00:55:41,121 --> 00:55:41,941
It used to be two and a half.

606
00:55:42,021 --> 00:55:43,001
They're not thinking that.

607
00:55:43,101 --> 00:55:44,141
They don't even look at it.

608
00:55:44,141 --> 00:55:45,461
They just pump the gas.

609
00:55:45,461 --> 00:55:46,901
They don't look at what the price is.

610
00:55:47,101 --> 00:55:49,181
They don't look at their grocery bills that closely.

611
00:55:49,301 --> 00:55:53,441
They're like, I don't know, maybe I spent $1,000 or $2,000 a month on groceries.

612
00:55:53,561 --> 00:55:53,961
I don't know.

613
00:55:54,481 --> 00:55:59,201
They literally, they just are, it doesn't affect their every day.

614
00:55:59,581 --> 00:56:06,101
And it really doesn't affect it enough to impact the amount that they're investing or have invested.

615
00:56:07,621 --> 00:56:13,921
So that's the problem is that that's, and here's where Scott Bessent is.

616
00:56:13,921 --> 00:56:37,301
And this is where Trump's mind is, I believe, is that he needs the Fed to lower rates soon. He wants them to lower rates soon and to get out of the QT business to ease up access to capital because they're worried it's going to start hitting the middle income demographics, so middle class.

617
00:56:37,301 --> 00:56:44,021
and which there's not a big like middle class has been hurt really badly here um but if it starts

618
00:56:44,021 --> 00:56:51,921
bleeding into middle class that really hurts that hurts a majority of the economy and so you can't

619
00:56:51,921 --> 00:56:58,561
depend on that top 10 percent anymore to keep going and so um that's the that's that's kind of

620
00:56:58,561 --> 00:57:02,721
the issue and that's that's their that's what they're concerned about is it not already hitting

621
00:57:02,721 --> 00:57:07,021
the middle class though it feels like i don't know for how long but for the last five years

622
00:57:07,021 --> 00:57:11,701
maybe post-COVID, probably before, like the middle class have been in a really tough spot.

623
00:57:11,901 --> 00:57:15,841
They've been squeezed. Yeah, absolutely. They've been squeezed. So how it has hurt them is that

624
00:57:15,841 --> 00:57:21,581
they haven't been able to invest in as much, you know, put as much capital away. Um, and so that's

625
00:57:21,581 --> 00:57:27,581
how it has, it's hurting, made, made them tread water. You know, um, that's what I see with my

626
00:57:27,581 --> 00:57:31,201
middle-class friends who are just, they're just feel like they're treading water. They're the,

627
00:57:31,201 --> 00:57:38,041
You know, the two-income families, all their money goes toward their rent or their mortgage and their groceries.

628
00:57:38,401 --> 00:57:41,081
And that's the problem is they're treading water.

629
00:57:41,261 --> 00:57:42,501
So it has hurt them.

630
00:57:42,801 --> 00:57:46,281
But the lower demographic is really struggling.

631
00:57:46,941 --> 00:57:55,241
That's where you're seeing the delinquencies and the credit cards, just the complete sabbatical on paying their student debt, you know.

632
00:57:55,241 --> 00:57:59,181
So that's definitely the first red flag.

633
00:57:59,181 --> 00:58:07,501
there's a quote in gg's book um which is taken from alice in wonderland and it's um i think it's

634
00:58:07,501 --> 00:58:11,901
the red queen or someone like that who says uh here you have to run as fast as you can just to

635
00:58:11,901 --> 00:58:15,981
stay in place and if you want to go anywhere you have to run twice as fast as that and it is like

636
00:58:15,981 --> 00:58:21,721
the perfect analogy to this fiat ponzi financial system that we live in this is why you have these

637
00:58:21,721 --> 00:58:27,101
two camps here you've got gold running to all-time highs and you've got central banks buying gold

638
00:58:27,101 --> 00:58:51,761
They're not buying U.S. Treasuries. That is a structural problem. And we're recognizing that, which is why the stablecoin bill is so important to get the ability to tuck in liquidity spots where we, you know, little pools of liquidity that the Treasury doesn't currently have access to or has access only through something like Tether, but they want more.

639
00:58:51,761 --> 00:58:58,581
so um that's that's an issue so you've got gold ripping at all-time highs and uh and then on the

640
00:58:58,581 --> 00:59:04,841
other side you've got the markets waiting to see what happens with with the fed um but yeah i mean

641
00:59:04,841 --> 00:59:10,881
that's that's kind of what everybody's focused on but also i'm looking at things like if you look at

642
00:59:10,881 --> 00:59:17,541
if you look at uh credit spreads you know from corporate treasuries to to the 10-year they're

643
00:59:17,541 --> 00:59:24,401
low. You know, there's not a lot of angst there. If you look at, if you look at the term premiums

644
00:59:24,401 --> 00:59:30,041
on the 10 year, they, they moved up to over 85 basis points or all the way back to 60 today,

645
00:59:30,041 --> 00:59:34,881
because people are calming down a little bit about the worry about a ripping inflation. They're

646
00:59:34,881 --> 00:59:40,321
calmed down about that, you know? So, and you, you look at these things and then you look at the

647
00:59:40,321 --> 00:59:47,201
VIX and the VIX is, I mean, it's down around today. Is it 1471? I mean, it's bouncing around

648
00:59:47,201 --> 00:59:52,221
the bottom here because there's a lot of either complacency or confidence that we've got, you know,

649
00:59:52,221 --> 00:59:59,281
we've got more runway. And so to bring the whole Fed conversation to the end here about the Fed

650
00:59:59,281 --> 01:00:06,621
is when the Fed cuts rates, typically they're way behind the eight ball and they cut too late,

651
01:00:06,821 --> 01:00:11,641
then we're already in recession and you see the markets draw down steeply. But every once in a

652
01:00:11,641 --> 01:00:18,301
while they cut while the market is modestly expanding and just it's starting to grind

653
01:00:18,301 --> 01:00:24,501
sideways though and they get it right and so that's positive for risk assets for things like

654
01:00:24,501 --> 01:00:30,781
a gold and bitcoin too because it's it's it's expansionary and you um and that expands liquidity

655
01:00:30,781 --> 01:00:39,881
and then sometimes the the cut when it's just it's it's too early and it rips higher we saw in

656
01:00:39,881 --> 01:00:46,801
the 80s. But I think that we're right now in the period that they could start cutting and it's not

657
01:00:46,801 --> 01:00:52,541
dire yet. And if they do stay in a program of cutting, it'll keep this thing going for a while.

658
01:00:53,681 --> 01:00:58,241
So that's why everybody's eyes are on the Fed to try to figure out what they're going to do next.

659
01:00:58,401 --> 01:01:02,241
And if it's going to continue, if they're going to continue on this program or if they're going to

660
01:01:02,241 --> 01:01:07,641
hit pause and stay back and say, remain political and say, we're going to see what the data says.

661
01:01:07,641 --> 01:01:12,381
one of my favorite things about bitcoin because so this show is going to go out the first morning

662
01:01:12,381 --> 01:01:16,981
of the fomc meeting um but you don't even need to watch it all you need to do is look at the price

663
01:01:16,981 --> 01:01:21,361
of bitcoin you know what's happened like bitcoin's gone up five grand in the last like three days or

664
01:01:21,361 --> 01:01:26,361
something cutting like we already know like we know what's coming um that's like a real free

665
01:01:26,361 --> 01:01:32,641
market dynamic that i love um all right cool this has been great um i assume off the back of this

666
01:01:32,641 --> 01:01:36,641
meeting, you think that's insanely bullish for Bitcoin if they start cutting rates again.

667
01:01:37,261 --> 01:01:39,941
What do you think the rest of this year will look like for Bitcoin?

668
01:01:41,701 --> 01:01:48,081
Look, I've thought that we could hit 150, 180 sometime this fall for a long time.

669
01:01:49,341 --> 01:01:55,081
I'm kind of surprised how hard we bounced off that 120, 125 level a few times here.

670
01:01:55,441 --> 01:01:57,901
And so does that give me pause?

671
01:01:58,001 --> 01:01:58,181
No.

672
01:01:58,301 --> 01:02:01,581
Do I think that the four-year cycle is over and bring it all the way back full circle

673
01:02:01,581 --> 01:02:03,201
to your question about Bitcoin in the beginning.

674
01:02:03,881 --> 01:02:05,501
I mean, I think it's changing.

675
01:02:05,701 --> 01:02:07,261
And one of the things that we didn't talk about

676
01:02:07,261 --> 01:02:08,721
is because of just the sheer amount

677
01:02:08,721 --> 01:02:10,801
of institutional capital that's coming into the space.

678
01:02:11,041 --> 01:02:13,761
And what happens is when you get institutions

679
01:02:13,761 --> 01:02:16,021
that decide that they need an allocation to this thing,

680
01:02:16,061 --> 01:02:18,181
they start rebalancing their portfolios around it.

681
01:02:18,661 --> 01:02:22,421
And so if they want a one or two or 3% position in Bitcoin,

682
01:02:22,641 --> 01:02:24,421
if Bitcoin goes down, they buy some more.

683
01:02:24,701 --> 01:02:26,101
If it goes way up, they sell some

684
01:02:26,101 --> 01:02:28,301
because they want to keep it at that 3% position.

685
01:02:28,521 --> 01:02:30,101
And that does dampen volatility.

686
01:02:30,101 --> 01:02:36,701
And that's going to continue to happen more and more and more as Bitcoin is continued to be adopted by institutions.

687
01:02:37,341 --> 01:02:47,421
And so, but I still think that we have, like Bitcoin, it can be extremely volatile to the upside too.

688
01:02:47,841 --> 01:02:54,621
So people sometimes forget, all they see is those 50, 60, 70, 80% drawdowns like, oh my God, this thing is volatile to the downside.

689
01:02:54,621 --> 01:02:56,161
Remember, it rips higher too.

690
01:02:56,161 --> 01:03:12,221
And I don't know if it's true this year yet, but over the last number of years or since the beginning, you had like almost 90% of your returns in Bitcoin could be captured in just 10 trading days a year.

691
01:03:12,941 --> 01:03:16,101
Like it really has violent moves higher.

692
01:03:16,741 --> 01:03:19,981
So that's an interesting thing to remember too.

693
01:03:19,981 --> 01:03:25,241
So I still think that we can get 130.

694
01:03:25,241 --> 01:03:28,101
If we don't hit 130, I will be shocked.

695
01:03:28,661 --> 01:03:31,641
But I still think we can hit 150, 180 by the year end.

696
01:03:32,201 --> 01:03:34,721
You know, it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

697
01:03:35,361 --> 01:03:36,101
That trading day-

698
01:03:36,101 --> 01:03:41,241
I don't really love price predictions, but, you know, I'm super-

699
01:03:42,061 --> 01:03:45,261
That seems relatively, that doesn't seem too outlandish.

700
01:03:45,361 --> 01:03:47,241
Like, I could totally believe that happens as well.

701
01:03:48,021 --> 01:03:52,041
It's funny, that stat on, like, you get, you can capture all the gains in sort of 10 trading

702
01:03:52,041 --> 01:03:52,561
days a year.

703
01:03:52,561 --> 01:03:57,161
I do wonder how this cycle is changing that because this has just been a grind.

704
01:03:57,381 --> 01:03:59,101
Like it hasn't been like previous cycles.

705
01:04:00,001 --> 01:04:01,501
Yeah, we haven't had that blow off top.

706
01:04:01,561 --> 01:04:03,101
Like you said, we just haven't had it.

707
01:04:03,241 --> 01:04:04,681
It's almost not been a bull market yet.

708
01:04:05,161 --> 01:04:05,861
I'm ready.

709
01:04:05,981 --> 01:04:06,601
I'm ready, James.

710
01:04:07,241 --> 01:04:08,241
But this has been great.

711
01:04:08,361 --> 01:04:08,921
Thank you, man.

712
01:04:09,001 --> 01:04:10,281
I always love talking to you.

713
01:04:10,661 --> 01:04:12,361
Anywhere you want to send anyone before we close out?

714
01:04:13,181 --> 01:04:14,381
No, I appreciate it, Danny.

715
01:04:14,621 --> 01:04:20,101
Just remind people that I'm the co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and

716
01:04:20,101 --> 01:04:21,961
we are investing in the space.

717
01:04:21,961 --> 01:04:29,141
So if you're an institutional investor and you want to learn more about it, just come to Bitcoin Opportunity dot fund and reach out.

718
01:04:29,201 --> 01:04:33,741
We can we can set up a call or something and see if the fund would be right for you.

719
01:04:34,641 --> 01:04:39,021
And and of course, I write the newsletter, the informationist like you were talking about.

720
01:04:39,101 --> 01:04:40,861
And that's just a James Lavish dot com.

721
01:04:41,141 --> 01:04:44,081
There's a free version that you can get each month.

722
01:04:44,081 --> 01:04:50,301
And and it just simplifies one complicated financial topic every single week.

723
01:04:50,301 --> 01:04:51,241
So, yeah.

724
01:04:51,241 --> 01:04:55,401
and if you can part with the sats buy it because it's one of the best newsletters in the space

725
01:04:55,401 --> 01:05:00,301
um james thank you man this has been good i appreciate you i really it's always good to be

726
01:05:00,301 --> 01:05:05,401
here danny and uh look forward to this this fall it's gonna be fun it is gonna be fun i'm sure we'll

727
01:05:05,401 --> 01:05:07,621
speak soon thanks james all right man

728
01:05:21,241 --> 01:05:51,221
Thank you.