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I think just keep it simple.

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Life is short.

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The grind is long.

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Staying up the stacks.

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That's work hard, save on Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin is the best money that's ever existed.

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You can hold your wealth.

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You can spend it all without permission, without counterparty risk.

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It is absolutely beautiful.

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There's no second best.

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I think the debanking and the rugs will continue until self-custody improves.

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like it's just if there's no need then people find complacency so what i would say to people

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is remain focused like the fundamentals have not changed um we need bitcoin more than ever

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i'm i've i from a risk reward basis i have never been more bullish on bitcoin i think it's the

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best money in the world that remains so um and just eyes on the prize right like i think this is

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where this is, you know,

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where the men get separated from the boys.

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We've got breaking news as we start recording.

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Jack Mallers, he stepped down.

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You think I'm close enough to this mic?

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Yeah, you're fine.

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I didn't see it coming.

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Yeah, what's your opinion as a external bystander?

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You literally found out an hour ago.

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My opinion is, as a friend of Jack's, I'm kind of pumped.

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Because the thing that has been frustrating from a very selfish perspective in Bitcoin is everyone working for public companies means that they're very conscious of what they say.

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They can't say a lot of things.

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They have to sort of pull punches.

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And I'm excited to have unshackled Jack back.

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That's like my initial.

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It was funny because yesterday you literally said to me, the weird part about all these Bitcoin public companies is everyone has all these secrets that they can't share.

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Yep.

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And when you said that, I was like, I have a secret I can't share.

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Look, I am incredibly close friends with Jack.

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I've known him for years now.

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Our families know each other.

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He launched Strike on my podcast in Marty's studio apartment.

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1031 is the largest investor in Strike.

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But we were never investors in XXI.

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We were never directly involved in XXI.

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Obviously, Jack is one of my confidants and I'm one of his.

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So I've provided him plenty of personal advice.

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but on a fiduciary duty point of view it's always for me it's always been to strike

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shareholders and then as a friend to jack as just unbiased advice and i i mean i think this is

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uh i think it's important for him to own own his mistakes take personal responsibility

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improve push forward i think this is fantastic for strike um i think it's good for strike

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shareholders i think it's good for strike users i think it's good for the bitcoin industry

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um and i'm pretty excited for what comes next i i think uh it's hard to

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i think it's hard it's hard to appreciate being in that situation unless you were in that

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situation yeah um but now you know he controls his destiny he completely controls his destiny

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and that's to me when jack always ships the best 100 but it is interesting like i obviously don't

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know why it happened you've i've heard his little thing he did on twitter say like explaining what

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had gone on it sounds like basically him and the board maybe had a different opinion of where

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the company should go um i'm just glad to see him not in the seat of like a big another bitcoin

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business like strike is his thing like it always has been like i i think focusing on that solely

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will be better for him i hope it's not hit his ego too hard no i think um it has i think he's

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definitely been significantly humbled. I think it's weird to talk about a friend publicly without

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them here. But I also, you know, he's a key part of the Bitcoin industry and Strike is a key part

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of the Bitcoin industry. So it's definitely relevant regardless. And I was definitely going

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to have to comment on it on Rabbit Hole Recap anyway. Look, I think XXi is an interesting one,

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right? Because it was, it was a company that was manufactured from scratch, uh, to do something

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and never actually did those things. Um, and the only way it would really work in my opinion,

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as you said, is for him not to have two seats and for there to be effectively a strike acquisition

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or merger into XVI. Um, so I think people can read between the lines, but ultimately

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that didn't make sense for the parties involved.

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You know, deals are hard to make

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and terms couldn't really come to...

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We couldn't...

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There couldn't be a deal that everyone was happy with.

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And so what's the best point of that?

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What's the best decision at that point?

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I think it to own your mistakes and move on When you say own your mistakes though what mistakes do you think he made I mean I won speak for him I sure he going to be out there

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and loud and transparent as he possibly can.

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But I mean, for starters,

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like maybe don't even do it in the first place, right?

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Yeah, but I mean, the idea of the business

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I thought was quite interesting.

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Like it wasn't a normal treasury company.

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Look, I think it's easy to backseat quarterback this stuff.

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Yeah.

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But ultimately, it's easy to backseat quarterback this stuff.

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But ultimately, if I was in the driver's seat, which I never was, I think what you would do is you'd have to come to terms on some kind of strike deal before you do the thing.

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Yeah.

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Right?

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Yeah.

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Yeah, that makes sense.

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the thing that I'm like that would probably be like the biggest regret I think if I was in his

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shoes let me put it that way yeah I don't want to talk for him either but like I would also imagine

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he's probably frustrated the way they played out after doing the announcement of the conference as

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well yeah I mean I would agree with that yeah but the thing I am excited about is I think he's going

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to come out swinging now I think he'll be like firing Jack as we used to know Jack because like

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now he can say what he wants which is awesome and look I'll always I always have his back I think he

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actually does really care i've seen it firsthand yeah um he cares about bitcoin he cares about his

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company he cares about his users cares about his family yeah um i think i think it's it's look

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when when we were kids you had i i don't i don't know about you but when i was growing up i had so

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many friends and it was all because of just like proximity all right um it's like the people you

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grew up with the people that were in your class the people that were living on your street like

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they were just automatically default to your friends.

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They were there so they're your friends.

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Although they're still my friends,

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a lot of those people.

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Yeah, but like when you become an adult.

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It's more meaningful, more purposeful.

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Yeah, you kind of distill your life

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into a much smaller group of friends, right?

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And it's not a proximity thing.

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I mean, we're super close friends

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and we live on the complete opposite side of the world, right?

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And Jack is one of those guys that I'm just like,

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I'm very grateful to have in my life,

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be a part of his life.

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and there's just not that many people like that yeah no jack's awesome the thing that i do like

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as well is jack was never an orange tie like the only time i've ever seen jack wear a suit was a

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event in dc and he came out in tux pants i think that proves how he's not a suit but he didn't even

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know that it was a tuxedo we had to tell him when he arrived i was like why'd you wear a tuxedo

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so clearly not a suit but he's like it was in my closet but that obviously like he kind of was

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an part of the orange tie brigade to a degree like he was and i'm glad that he's not anymore

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um do you think the orange tie crew i know you've been on a bit tirade about these

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have been net negative for bitcoin

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i don't know i i feel i feel uh

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I don't like punching down.

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And shareholders, a lot of these businesses are down 90%.

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Sometimes more, sometimes less.

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I do...

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I would like to see them right their ships.

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I strictly prefer that people don't lose a ton of money.

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And I think most of the shareholders for these companies are diehard Bitcoiners.

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Like, I don't think they necessarily I think there was some expansion of scope, like investor

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base, but I think that's overstated.

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I think most of it was was effectively funded by diehard Bitcoiners, like people that were

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already buying Bitcoin would be buying Bitcoin otherwise.

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And, you know, I would I hope I hope they find good outcomes.

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I think obviously people in general across the industry have hopefully learned lessons in counterparty risk and third party risk.

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But a net negative, I don't think it's been a net negative.

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I think in a lot of ways it's been inevitable it was going to happen anyway.

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I don't think most of these companies will fail just because I'm bullish on Bitcoin.

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I think the key thing that people should be looking at here, though, is something that we've talked about at length for years with shit coins is do not measure your performance in dollar terms.

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right i think the question that people should be asking themselves is if i own mstr common stock

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for instance will it outperform bitcoin in a bull run not that you know just the fiat number is up

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probably in the bull run it might like but i'm saying that's the question that's how you should

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be looking at these things right um it not just okay if bitcoin pumps then mstr pumps which that is what would happen The question is does it outperform But I think it kind of turns everyone into a trader then

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Because I think if you could buy, just using MSDR as an example,

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if you're buying it now and Bitcoin does go on a big bull run,

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I could totally believe that MSDR outperforms Bitcoin in that period.

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But it's like, Bitcoin's not a two-year game.

146
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Will it outperform over the next 10 years?

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I doubt it. I don't know, but I doubt it.

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And so if you're going to try and basically swing trade cycles, that seems very risky.

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To be clear, I think people should stay humble and stack stats.

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Yes.

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I think just keep it simple.

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Life is short.

153
00:11:01,126 --> 00:11:01,926
The grind is long.

154
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Stay humble, stack stats.

155
00:11:02,926 --> 00:11:03,886
Work hard, save on Bitcoin.

156
00:11:04,566 --> 00:11:06,126
Bitcoin is the best money that's ever existed.

157
00:11:07,686 --> 00:11:09,546
You can hold your wealth.

158
00:11:09,986 --> 00:11:12,926
You can spend it all without permission, without counter-party risk.

159
00:11:13,006 --> 00:11:14,066
It is absolutely beautiful.

160
00:11:15,746 --> 00:11:16,926
There is no second best.

161
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162
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178
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00:13:57,986 --> 00:14:01,606
I find it kind of hard to kind of square.

215
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The idea of companies buying Bitcoin is cool.

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00:14:06,066 --> 00:14:06,646
I love that.

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00:14:06,966 --> 00:14:09,346
But I have an aversion to treasury companies

218
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and I can't always explain it.

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It's just like the financial games

220
00:14:13,626 --> 00:14:14,786
that some of these companies are playing now,

221
00:14:14,886 --> 00:14:17,486
it's got too complex and I just don't like it.

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Like I'd rather just buy Bitcoin.

223
00:14:19,646 --> 00:14:22,086
And I don't necessarily know

224
00:14:22,086 --> 00:14:23,906
what other people see in them that I don't.

225
00:14:25,926 --> 00:14:29,446
Look, I think there's a couple of pieces here.

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00:14:29,446 --> 00:14:41,206
I think, first of all, since the dawn of Bitcoin, one of the products that have had significant product market fit is leverage on Bitcoin.

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And that has come from pure play leverage, stuff like the BitMEX casino.

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Maybe that's why I hate it.

229
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I got wrecked on BitMEX.

230
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Or shit coins, right?

231
00:14:52,766 --> 00:14:57,586
Shit coins have almost always been someone trying to outperform Bitcoin.

232
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And most times people get wrecked.

233
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On the Bitcoin treasury companies as a whole, I think my two biggest nitpicks are, first of all, the conflation of if you are concerned about the risks and how they're portrayed with Bitcoin treasury companies, you don't think companies should hold Bitcoin.

234
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No I just I have this radical view that companies should be profitable businesses that save in Bitcoin So radical And so I think there been a conflation there between what I expect to be the overwhelming

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majority of Bitcoin businesses, which are just traditional profitable businesses that

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use Bitcoin as a treasury asset and use it maybe even as a means of payment for things

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that, you know, if they need to cross-border payments and stuff like that, wires maybe

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are not sustainable for or not the ideal fit for, which is, by the way, something we see on the

239
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OpenSat side, which is my charity. You know, we're sending out a million dollars a month in Bitcoin

240
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to 40 plus countries, grant recipients in 40 plus countries, and we're sending it all out with

241
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Bitcoin. It just literally would not be possible to do that with wires. In some cases, it would not

242
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be possible. In other cases, it's just untenable, especially on a monthly basis. And then the second

243
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piece is um you're doing that as a single batch transaction for like a dollar or something oh yeah

244
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it's like super cheap uh but more important is like just like the mental burden and the counting

245
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burden just easier right it's uh mempool's clearly emptied again like it's absolutely insane i got

246
00:16:45,489 --> 00:16:51,329
that one wrong you got that one very wrong but like the crazy thing is that even like a high

247
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a high priority transaction now can be less than one sat for vbyte like that's something that i

248
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would never have guessed was coming two years ago yeah you like pay like half a set for vbyte and

249
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do you think that's a really damning sign for bitcoin first of all uh that was a voluntary

250
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thing because it's not a consensus rule that was a voluntary thing that miners and i have no

251
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understand why they agreed to do that they had like a nice price for i mean maybe at the time

252
00:17:15,869 --> 00:17:19,008
one separate by didn't feel like much but now it feels like a lot yeah you know they could be

253
00:17:19,008 --> 00:17:23,369
getting double like i get that there's like almost a prison's dilemma in it where if other people

254
00:17:23,369 --> 00:17:29,309
were doing it yeah did it but but why i don't know it's weird but uh they chose to anyway i mean the

255
00:17:29,309 --> 00:17:35,429
real reason is because transaction fees remain a negligible part of their revenue right it's

256
00:17:35,429 --> 00:17:42,649
it's mostly the subsidy um which goes down by half every having um that is the majority of the

257
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revenue and so i think they just didn't really think that much of it they might as well squeeze

258
00:17:46,829 --> 00:17:50,309
a little bit more out of the fruit, right?

259
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If some other mining pool is accepting it.

260
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But they did it like really quickly.

261
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Like it was like,

262
00:17:55,869 --> 00:17:57,609
it was surprising there wasn't really

263
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any major holdouts in terms of going under

264
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one separate bite.

265
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Is it damning?

266
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No, I don't.

267
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I mean, I don't think so.

268
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I do think

269
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adoption of real Bitcoin

270
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has been lagging in recent years.

271
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But I think it's too short term for it to be considered a trend.

272
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I think like in the last cycle, a lot of the excitement was around these basically these Bitcoin public stocks.

273
00:18:30,869 --> 00:18:31,228
Right.

274
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And not buying Bitcoin and using Bitcoin.

275
00:18:34,389 --> 00:18:40,869
But we've seen a lot of positive trends recently on using Bitcoin as money in a day to day.

276
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I mean, I think some of the biggest news of the year was Square going live with Bitcoin payments at their terminals.

277
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I think across the world, we see a lot of successes on Bitcoin circular economies in like South Africa and Kenya and Costa Rica.

278
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Kenya is the best country in the world to be a Bitcoiner, I think.

279
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Well, the government's like kind of hostile towards it.

280
00:19:02,468 --> 00:19:06,329
If you want to use it, there's literally basically no way you can't use Bitcoin.

281
00:19:06,589 --> 00:19:07,488
Tando's Kenya, right?

282
00:19:07,669 --> 00:19:07,948
Tando, yeah.

283
00:19:08,248 --> 00:19:08,889
It's awesome.

284
00:19:08,988 --> 00:19:12,789
I like those like pragmatic use cases too.

285
00:19:12,789 --> 00:19:15,069
It's like Tando's not purely cypherpunk.

286
00:19:15,069 --> 00:19:23,149
but if you have an mpesa phone number which everyone does you can just do at bitcoin.co.ke

287
00:19:23,149 --> 00:19:27,488
at the end of it and it's a lightning address and you can just and if you send bitcoin and

288
00:19:27,488 --> 00:19:34,429
they're not enabled they just receive uh kenya whatever their fiat is yeah um which is just

289
00:19:34,429 --> 00:19:40,968
super practical and is interesting because you can do that in places with mobile money you see

290
00:19:40,968 --> 00:19:45,988
stuff like that in Costa Rica. You see stuff like that in South Africa with massive mobile money

291
00:19:45,988 --> 00:19:50,789
adoption already that we just don't have that fee outside infrastructure in place in the United

292
00:19:50,789 --> 00:19:57,208
States. So you don't see that as much. But yeah, I mean, look, I don't know about you. I use Bitcoin

293
00:19:57,208 --> 00:20:01,488
as money all the time. I prefer to spend Bitcoin. I do think it's an interesting...

294
00:20:04,289 --> 00:20:09,428
There's definitely a dynamic where I don't know about you, but the majority of my payments are

295
00:20:09,428 --> 00:20:15,109
lightning payments. Yeah, same. Which is a protocol for batch Bitcoin transactions. So it should

296
00:20:15,109 --> 00:20:21,349
reduce demand on the chain. But I mean, you say you use Bitcoin as money all the time. I don't.

297
00:20:21,448 --> 00:20:24,928
Like, I wish I could use it more, but I just don't. Like, we don't have square terminals

298
00:20:24,928 --> 00:20:28,909
accepting Bitcoin in Australia. There's very few places I can actually spend Bitcoin.

299
00:20:29,369 --> 00:20:32,188
Do you accept any sponsorships in Bitcoin? They can all pay in Bitcoin.

300
00:20:32,488 --> 00:20:35,269
Do any? Occasionally, but not many. Interesting.

301
00:20:35,269 --> 00:20:40,508
Yeah. And I think people will often say it's like accounting reasons and that sort of thing, which I get.

302
00:20:40,508 --> 00:20:43,569
Like if it makes your business harder to run, then I do understand it.

303
00:20:43,569 --> 00:20:48,508
But I use Bitcoin as money probably less than a few times a month.

304
00:20:48,508 --> 00:20:49,968
So there's...

305
00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:56,011
there's a lot of small businesses that online have started accepting bitcoin and either they're

306
00:20:56,811 --> 00:21:02,211
uh bitcoin only or bitcoin preferred um like something that come to mind is like soapminer.com

307
00:21:02,211 --> 00:21:11,071
is a is a guy who makes amazing natural soap uh for my family and we just pay in bitcoin um there's

308
00:21:11,071 --> 00:21:17,411
a there's a ranch in santa fe that makes amazing meat called beck and bellow buck and bellow

309
00:21:17,411 --> 00:21:26,431
buck and below maybe um really good meat accepts bitcoin uh the right run by ride or die bitcoiners

310
00:21:26,431 --> 00:21:33,331
um so if there's a will there's a way i just i i think i think people need to be patient

311
00:21:33,331 --> 00:21:37,931
and the way the halvings work out is the subsidy is still quite high

312
00:21:37,931 --> 00:21:44,351
transaction fees don't need to be the majority of revenue yet um usually when halvings happen

313
00:21:44,351 --> 00:21:46,451
the dollar

314
00:21:46,451 --> 00:21:48,131
terms are

315
00:21:48,131 --> 00:21:50,951
increased even though halvings are decreasing

316
00:21:50,951 --> 00:21:52,911
in Bitcoin terms and if you think about miners

317
00:21:52,911 --> 00:21:54,871
most of the time their expenses are in fiat

318
00:21:54,871 --> 00:21:57,191
so in a lot

319
00:21:57,191 --> 00:21:58,991
of ways the subsidy hasn't really been reducing

320
00:21:58,991 --> 00:22:01,031
significantly so we still have significant

321
00:22:01,031 --> 00:22:02,811
more time but I think it's

322
00:22:02,811 --> 00:22:04,371
definitely something to watch

323
00:22:04,371 --> 00:22:06,931
when I first got into Bitcoin

324
00:22:06,931 --> 00:22:08,251
2016-2017

325
00:22:08,251 --> 00:22:10,671
transaction fees were way higher than today

326
00:22:10,671 --> 00:22:12,991
they probably haven't been

327
00:22:12,991 --> 00:22:15,871
as high as a SAP of eBite since then, I would imagine.

328
00:22:17,371 --> 00:22:20,251
And that was clearly people who were using like real Bitcoin to,

329
00:22:20,511 --> 00:22:22,791
I think a lot of it was probably people sending it across exchanges

330
00:22:22,791 --> 00:22:24,111
to go and punt on shitcoins.

331
00:22:24,271 --> 00:22:25,631
But like people were still using Bitcoin.

332
00:22:26,211 --> 00:22:27,651
And one of the things I think is actually interesting

333
00:22:27,651 --> 00:22:30,751
about sort of crypto world is because if you want to interact

334
00:22:30,751 --> 00:22:33,851
in like DeFi space, you have to be self-custodying

335
00:22:33,851 --> 00:22:34,911
whatever shitcoin you have.

336
00:22:35,051 --> 00:22:37,391
Like they have way higher rates of self-custody.

337
00:22:37,551 --> 00:22:39,051
It's the one thing I think they've done better.

338
00:22:39,051 --> 00:22:49,391
yeah it is interesting um i mean if you look at the top the top self-custody wallets there's all

339
00:22:49,391 --> 00:22:53,751
shitcoin wallet yeah it's trust wallet and metamask are the two big ones and and that is

340
00:22:53,751 --> 00:22:58,251
obviously to facilitate gambling essentially like it's people trying to use these defy protocols

341
00:22:58,251 --> 00:23:04,271
but without kyc yeah but i like i don't know how we get there with bitcoin how do we get people to

342
00:23:04,271 --> 00:23:10,731
care about self-custody and actually using bitcoin i think uh the debanking and the rugs

343
00:23:10,731 --> 00:23:17,131
will continue until self-custody improves like it's just if there's no need then people

344
00:23:17,131 --> 00:23:23,951
find complacency it's always easier to not practice personal responsibility

345
00:23:23,951 --> 00:23:31,671
so people tend to only really do it if they have a strong reason to and usually it's because

346
00:23:31,671 --> 00:23:35,991
trusted third parties are security holes. Yeah. But it kind of gets back to the same question I

347
00:23:35,991 --> 00:23:40,151
ask you every time we're on the show is like, will people use Bitcoin in the way that we see Bitcoin

348
00:23:40,151 --> 00:23:45,151
as freedom money? I think more people are using Bitcoin as freedom money today than have ever

349
00:23:45,151 --> 00:23:52,671
used Bitcoin as freedom money. The percentage is smaller as a total. I think that comes with

350
00:23:52,671 --> 00:23:57,911
the territory as Bitcoin matures. But I think the number to watch is the absolute number. And if

351
00:23:57,911 --> 00:24:05,831
that started to really stagnate or go down i think um people should sound the alarm yeah but uh

352
00:24:05,831 --> 00:24:11,331
i guess the bigger question is are we doing a good enough job and i think i i have a feeling

353
00:24:11,331 --> 00:24:16,831
this is why you came back to twitter we can we can always do better um there's still a lot i

354
00:24:16,831 --> 00:24:25,451
think there's still a lot of work to be done um i think we're doing fine but we can do better yeah

355
00:24:25,451 --> 00:24:26,711
Is that why you came back to Twitter?

356
00:24:26,971 --> 00:24:28,171
It is part of the reason, yes.

357
00:24:28,231 --> 00:24:29,691
Or is it because you've given up on Noster?

358
00:24:30,411 --> 00:24:31,491
I haven't given up on Noster.

359
00:24:31,791 --> 00:24:38,351
I think, depending on your perspective, Noster has been a success or a failure.

360
00:24:41,351 --> 00:24:47,971
I think it works really well as a ride or die communication and identity protocol.

361
00:24:49,391 --> 00:24:55,431
As an open protocol, it's really easy to work with in terms of building stuff using the new AI tools.

362
00:24:55,451 --> 00:24:59,991
especially in combination with other open protocols like bitcoin um so it's it's very

363
00:24:59,991 --> 00:25:09,351
unique in that regard i think as a um i won't even say like as a mass social media protocol replacement

364
00:25:09,351 --> 00:25:18,191
uh i mean it's definitely failed in that regard uh but what i was i mean what i was hoping for

365
00:25:18,191 --> 00:25:21,891
was at least that an overwhelming majority of the bitcoin conversation would move over there

366
00:25:21,891 --> 00:25:23,431
and it hasn't.

367
00:25:23,771 --> 00:25:26,651
It just legitimately hasn't.

368
00:25:27,111 --> 00:25:28,951
It's more comparable, I think,

369
00:25:29,051 --> 00:25:32,151
to a large public group chat.

370
00:25:32,251 --> 00:25:32,431
Yeah.

371
00:25:32,951 --> 00:25:35,191
While the majority of Bitcoin discussion

372
00:25:35,191 --> 00:25:36,271
remains on X.

373
00:25:38,231 --> 00:25:41,091
And, you know,

374
00:25:41,131 --> 00:25:42,771
I devoted a significant amount of time

375
00:25:42,771 --> 00:25:44,771
and energy to it over the last two years.

376
00:25:45,411 --> 00:25:47,391
I think some progress was made.

377
00:25:48,571 --> 00:25:50,471
Some could have done better

378
00:25:50,471 --> 00:25:51,231
in other regards.

379
00:25:51,891 --> 00:26:12,688
But I definitely personally underestimated the difficulty of breaking established network effect And that was probably the biggest lesson I learned is life is short time is scarce Okay so where can I affect the most positive change Probably on things that

380
00:26:12,688 --> 00:26:20,588
don't have to break network effect. Let me put it that way. I think I recently was asked by

381
00:26:20,588 --> 00:26:26,348
Evgeny, the founder of SimpleX, to be one of the founding board members of his nonprofit.

382
00:26:27,508 --> 00:26:40,428
And SimpleX aims to be a drop-in freedom-focused replacement to Telegram and Signal that is less centralized and more robust, secure, and private.

383
00:26:40,428 --> 00:26:43,968
and I think there's something to be said about

384
00:26:43,968 --> 00:26:47,968
okay if we want free discussion on the internet

385
00:26:47,968 --> 00:26:51,748
that's a good example

386
00:26:51,748 --> 00:26:55,648
because if you try and solve it at the group chat problem

387
00:26:55,648 --> 00:26:59,128
it requires less attacking and network effect.

388
00:26:59,688 --> 00:27:04,068
For a group chat to be useful you really just need 10 people to download the app.

389
00:27:04,668 --> 00:27:05,928
Then you have a great group chat.

390
00:27:05,928 --> 00:27:11,648
right if you need if you need 500 million people to join a protocol for it to be interesting

391
00:27:11,648 --> 00:27:16,968
then it's it's a push it's a much more difficult problem to solve but when you first moved over

392
00:27:16,968 --> 00:27:21,888
when you went Nostra only yeah you were super critical of Elon Musk yeah I think that was a

393
00:27:21,888 --> 00:27:25,828
time when free speech on the internet looked way more perilous than it does today do you think

394
00:27:25,828 --> 00:27:38,468
that's still a risk yes i think i think i um i guess it's also worth i think explicitly in the

395
00:27:38,468 --> 00:27:44,388
u.s because like the risk in europe and uk is obvious i think i think elon and his team at x

396
00:27:44,388 --> 00:27:49,528
uh have i mean they have they beat all my expectations from a product point of view i

397
00:27:49,528 --> 00:27:54,528
think they've been very good stewards of the product are they perfect now should we rely on

398
00:27:54,528 --> 00:28:02,328
a single man to protect free speech on the internet? Probably not. Probably a horrible idea.

399
00:28:04,368 --> 00:28:13,688
But I think it's important to realize that after I left X, there was like the great liberal exodus

400
00:28:13,688 --> 00:28:23,548
from X, right? I didn't leave X because I thought Elon was incompetent. It was the exact opposite.

401
00:28:24,528 --> 00:28:45,268
I saw someone who was incredibly competent, very good at executing, and seemed like he was ready to roll out full control over this platform that I had a ton of reliance on and that the main Bitcoin discussion was happening on.

402
00:28:45,268 --> 00:28:52,388
And a key part of that is identity checks on the internet, which continues to escalate.

403
00:28:52,388 --> 00:28:55,748
now Elon has pumped the brakes on that on X

404
00:28:55,748 --> 00:29:01,888
he hasn't you can I mean if you do like the revenue sharing and stuff then you

405
00:29:01,888 --> 00:29:07,428
you know you have to do full ID checks but if you if you want to use X without

406
00:29:07,428 --> 00:29:12,348
verifying your identity it's still relatively usable now I think that's

407
00:29:12,348 --> 00:29:16,048
going to escalate mostly pushed by governments but

408
00:29:16,048 --> 00:29:20,248
also in in in partnership with corporations Facebook has been a big

409
00:29:20,248 --> 00:29:25,348
advocate for this across the board i mean they want to sell your data right so they

410
00:29:25,348 --> 00:29:32,848
want to be able to figure out who's a bot and who's not um and it's not the most effective way

411
00:29:32,848 --> 00:29:37,608
to do it but it's it's definitely the easiest way to do it is to do full kyc on the internet

412
00:29:37,608 --> 00:29:44,428
and have id checks on everyone and the argument is to protect the children which is a classic argument

413
00:29:44,428 --> 00:29:52,128
um so i mean i think i think protocols like nostr are probably more important as ever

414
00:29:52,128 --> 00:30:00,908
because of that trend but it it remains to be seen you know how that exactly how that exactly

415
00:30:00,908 --> 00:30:06,188
plays out what do you think so one of the things i've been pretty consistent on with nostr is like

416
00:30:06,188 --> 00:30:09,728
i never thought social media was going to be the killer app like it never made sense to me because

417
00:30:09,728 --> 00:30:11,948
of the network effect of Twitter and everything else.

418
00:30:12,448 --> 00:30:15,428
I always thought there was huge potential elsewhere.

419
00:30:16,108 --> 00:30:19,248
In some definitely illegal areas, there's a very obvious use case

420
00:30:19,248 --> 00:30:19,928
for something like Noster.

421
00:30:20,488 --> 00:30:23,468
Is it done at this point in terms of social media?

422
00:30:23,568 --> 00:30:25,028
Do you think these other things will still happen?

423
00:30:25,848 --> 00:30:26,728
Look, I...

424
00:30:27,868 --> 00:30:29,968
How do I want to phrase this?

425
00:30:32,988 --> 00:30:36,348
I actually don't think Noster's great for illegal things

426
00:30:36,348 --> 00:30:38,348
because it's a public broadcasting protocol.

427
00:30:38,348 --> 00:30:47,928
Like you're literally broadcasting to the world in a robust, hard-to-stop way.

428
00:30:48,748 --> 00:30:53,228
And you actually can leak a lot of private information if you're not careful as a result,

429
00:30:53,468 --> 00:30:55,968
particularly your IP address, for instance, where you're located.

430
00:30:57,708 --> 00:31:00,888
And it's like hitting a ton of different servers by design, right,

431
00:31:00,908 --> 00:31:02,448
instead of like just hitting Elon servers.

432
00:31:04,188 --> 00:31:06,088
So it's not actually like great for that.

433
00:31:06,088 --> 00:31:08,968
And then also if you have laws in place,

434
00:31:08,968 --> 00:31:23,144
like in the UK and whatnot where it what you say that can get you in trouble Or like Brazil was one of them They were just banning specific influencers from using social media

435
00:31:23,144 --> 00:31:24,404
that were anti-government.

436
00:31:26,344 --> 00:31:28,884
Effectively, what those people have to do is they have to go

437
00:31:28,884 --> 00:31:32,224
and they have to start fresh as an anon.

438
00:31:32,224 --> 00:31:36,584
They can't use – if they have 5 million followers on X

439
00:31:36,584 --> 00:31:38,384
with their real legal name,

440
00:31:39,124 --> 00:31:41,544
they can't just use Nostra instead

441
00:31:41,544 --> 00:31:42,384
with their real legal name

442
00:31:42,384 --> 00:31:43,984
because the government will just come and jail you.

443
00:31:44,464 --> 00:31:45,804
Like that's outside of the protocol.

444
00:31:45,924 --> 00:31:47,224
That's separate from the protocol.

445
00:31:47,644 --> 00:31:48,784
Okay, so there's that piece.

446
00:31:49,344 --> 00:31:51,384
And so from when you see that type of pressure,

447
00:31:51,544 --> 00:31:52,604
I think in a lot of ways,

448
00:31:52,724 --> 00:31:54,284
group chats are actually make more sense.

449
00:31:54,384 --> 00:31:57,284
And Nostra has failed to bootstrap

450
00:31:57,284 --> 00:32:00,984
really strong like group chat technology.

451
00:32:01,784 --> 00:32:03,864
There's some good projects that are working on it

452
00:32:03,864 --> 00:32:04,944
and it's yet to be seen

453
00:32:04,944 --> 00:32:07,484
if they can actually succeed there.

454
00:32:07,544 --> 00:32:08,944
But the metaphor that I like to use

455
00:32:08,944 --> 00:32:11,724
is when the revolution was fought in the US,

456
00:32:12,244 --> 00:32:13,924
like where were the important conversations happening?

457
00:32:14,004 --> 00:32:15,524
They were happening in pubs at two in the morning.

458
00:32:16,084 --> 00:32:17,464
They weren't happening on the corner

459
00:32:17,464 --> 00:32:19,304
from a guy shouting on the soapbox.

460
00:32:19,444 --> 00:32:21,604
Like, yeah, there was the Federalist papers

461
00:32:21,604 --> 00:32:23,064
and stuff that were written by anons,

462
00:32:23,304 --> 00:32:24,584
publicly distributed, right?

463
00:32:24,624 --> 00:32:26,884
But when you're talking about like the brass tacks,

464
00:32:26,964 --> 00:32:28,484
like who was actually having the conversations?

465
00:32:28,624 --> 00:32:29,564
When were they having the conversations?

466
00:32:29,704 --> 00:32:31,244
It was in private closed door rooms,

467
00:32:31,244 --> 00:32:33,224
which is in the digital world, the group chat.

468
00:32:33,224 --> 00:32:38,324
so there's so there's that piece on terms of non-starred social media versus

469
00:32:38,324 --> 00:32:42,484
a protocol for other things i think it's yet to be seen because

470
00:32:42,484 --> 00:32:52,664
i think a lot of those things require the social media aspect to effectively bootstrap

471
00:32:52,664 --> 00:32:57,424
the web of trust so one of the things i did learn is

472
00:32:57,424 --> 00:33:08,724
it's really easy to critique these social media companies because they do a lot of things that

473
00:33:08,724 --> 00:33:14,844
seem incredibly wrong and a lot of times they're guilty of those things um but it's a really hard

474
00:33:14,844 --> 00:33:22,264
thing to find a balance on on like what is what is what is healthy social media look like um there's

475
00:33:22,264 --> 00:33:29,424
a lot of it's it's it's a very hard thing to do um and i was in the thick of it on the nostor side

476
00:33:29,424 --> 00:33:38,144
um so i don't know what that looks like but i guess long-winded i'll use an example one of the

477
00:33:38,144 --> 00:33:44,704
coolest non-social media bitcoin project uh nostor projects is called zap store um i think

478
00:33:44,704 --> 00:33:49,764
it's zap store.dev and what it is is it's a drop-in android app store replacement

479
00:33:49,764 --> 00:34:00,844
And so right now, like on the app stores, like if you use Google Play Store or Apple App Store, they are providing a service for users.

480
00:34:01,004 --> 00:34:03,424
They're doing one, they're providing you discovery, right?

481
00:34:03,464 --> 00:34:05,044
A lot of times people need an app.

482
00:34:05,104 --> 00:34:06,644
They need a weather app.

483
00:34:06,804 --> 00:34:10,984
They open up the app store, they type in weather, it lists all the weather apps with reviews, right?

484
00:34:11,624 --> 00:34:15,284
Ranked by some unknown algorithm, but still it's discovery, right?

485
00:34:15,344 --> 00:34:15,944
It's one piece.

486
00:34:15,944 --> 00:34:25,824
And then the second is a security aspect, which is developer creates app, creates the latest update of the app, releases it to the world.

487
00:34:25,904 --> 00:34:29,144
You want to make sure that that app gets to you unchanged.

488
00:34:29,444 --> 00:34:39,304
There's something called a man in the middle attack where you have a malicious actor comes in between you and the developer, modifies the app, does something bad with the app, and then you download the modified app.

489
00:34:39,444 --> 00:34:43,424
And so what Apple and Google does is they put their stamp of approval on.

490
00:34:43,424 --> 00:34:46,904
Google says this app was made by the developer and has been unchanged.

491
00:34:47,344 --> 00:34:49,524
Now, obviously, that's a trusted third-party model.

492
00:34:50,444 --> 00:34:51,304
Google can change it.

493
00:34:51,344 --> 00:34:52,064
You would never know.

494
00:34:52,424 --> 00:34:53,844
It's a complete black box.

495
00:34:53,924 --> 00:34:55,604
You're just trusting Google and Apple with that.

496
00:34:56,444 --> 00:34:58,424
Okay, so what happens as a result?

497
00:34:58,504 --> 00:34:59,284
What happens as a result?

498
00:34:59,404 --> 00:35:00,244
Developers get banned.

499
00:35:00,344 --> 00:35:01,604
They can't service the App Store.

500
00:35:01,784 --> 00:35:03,184
There's got to be a better way, right?

501
00:35:03,484 --> 00:35:05,064
People have said this for years now.

502
00:35:05,104 --> 00:35:06,044
There's got to be a better way.

503
00:35:08,004 --> 00:35:13,204
One of the ways that is, quote, unquote, a better way is you have them sign a PGP signed

504
00:35:13,204 --> 00:35:17,044
message of the hash of the file.

505
00:35:17,524 --> 00:35:19,004
User is supposed to verify it.

506
00:35:19,064 --> 00:35:19,744
No one does that.

507
00:35:20,044 --> 00:35:21,104
Very few people do that.

508
00:35:21,264 --> 00:35:23,384
It's technically possible, but not scalable.

509
00:35:23,924 --> 00:35:31,784
So what ZapStore did is you download the AppStore on the Android phone, and then you either

510
00:35:31,784 --> 00:35:35,244
put in your Nostre account or someone you trust.

511
00:35:35,244 --> 00:35:38,704
So if you don't use Nostre, for instance, you can put in my Nostre account, right?

512
00:35:39,924 --> 00:35:42,404
And then what that does is it provides two things.

513
00:35:42,404 --> 00:35:45,564
First of all, it helps you with discovery in a permissionless way.

514
00:35:45,664 --> 00:35:46,904
ZapStore doesn't control it.

515
00:35:47,704 --> 00:35:53,644
It's reviews of me, my reviews and reviews of my friends, right, is what's doing it.

516
00:35:53,744 --> 00:35:57,824
And then second of all, the developer is signing it with their Nostro key.

517
00:35:58,044 --> 00:36:03,944
So if you follow the developer, it says, you know, Vitter signed this Amethyst release,

518
00:36:03,944 --> 00:36:08,064
and you know that it hasn't been changed without doing any PGP verification,

519
00:36:08,204 --> 00:36:09,764
without trusting Google, without trusting Apple.

520
00:36:09,764 --> 00:36:17,364
Now, there is no shot in hell that someone is going to build a friends list on an app store replacement.

521
00:36:17,924 --> 00:36:35,060
That system only works because you bootstrap the friends list with shit posts on the social media component That where the real compounding bootstrapping effect happens So I think you need both I think the social aspect is just taking way longer than I expected

522
00:36:36,220 --> 00:36:44,520
And it's yet to be seen if it gets real broad usage. But even if it doesn't,

523
00:36:45,100 --> 00:36:48,260
it can still be valuable in that use case, but you still need the social aspect.

524
00:36:48,260 --> 00:36:51,860
Every Bitcoiner eventually has to answer one question.

525
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,500
If something happened to me, would my family know what to do?

526
00:36:54,900 --> 00:36:56,800
Could my wife or parents recover my Bitcoin?

527
00:36:57,340 --> 00:37:00,060
And would my children inherit the Bitcoin that I spent years stacking?

528
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,840
That's where AnchorWatch builds Bitcoin custody models

529
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,060
to protect you and your family against real life.

530
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,780
Accidents, errors, kidnappings, and even your own death.

531
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,640
Every AnchorWatch custody solution includes their inheritance protocol.

532
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,760
Designed so when the unthinkable happens,

533
00:37:14,860 --> 00:37:16,900
your Bitcoin reaches the people you intended it for.

534
00:37:16,900 --> 00:37:23,120
Whether you're a self-custody expert or want multi-institutional support, your Bitcoin estate plan shouldn't be an afterthought.

535
00:37:23,820 --> 00:37:27,760
Bitcoin is only generational wealth if it can actually be passed down through the generations.

536
00:37:28,220 --> 00:37:31,260
So make sure they can access in the future what you've built today.

537
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:33,900
AnchorWatch is your custody, your way.

538
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,980
Visit anchorwatch.com to get started. That's anchorwatch.com.

539
00:37:38,220 --> 00:37:42,560
You wouldn't reuse a Bitcoin address, so why does your phone broadcast the same identifier for life?

540
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:48,200
Every sim has a static ID and carriers, ad networks and bad actors all use it to track you.

541
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,640
The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.

542
00:37:52,540 --> 00:37:54,700
CAPE is America's privacy first mobile carrier.

543
00:37:55,060 --> 00:37:58,620
Their identifier rotation feature changes your ID every 24 hours

544
00:37:58,620 --> 00:38:01,140
so you look like a different subscriber every single day.

545
00:38:01,780 --> 00:38:03,040
And sim swaps are off the table.

546
00:38:03,420 --> 00:38:06,580
Your number can't move without a 24-word phrase that only you hold.

547
00:38:06,980 --> 00:38:09,940
There's also no name at sign up, no social security number,

548
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,800
and there's no profile to build on you.

549
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:16,040
if you're a bitcoiner in america i honestly don't know why you'd use any other network

550
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:22,880
you can head over to cape.co forward slash wbd and use the code wbd for 33 off your first six months

551
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:29,680
that's c-a-p-e.co forward slash wbd if you hold bitcoin long enough there's going to come a time

552
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:34,120
when you need some dollars it might be a tax bill a business expense life getting in the way but

553
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,080
whatever it is it might come at a time when you don't want to sell your bitcoin that's where

554
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:42,100
Ledin comes in. Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin instead with tiered rates that go

555
00:38:42,100 --> 00:38:47,700
as low as 9.25%. So you don't have to sell your stack if you don't want to. Ledin have operated

556
00:38:47,700 --> 00:38:52,860
through every market cycle since 2018 and have originated over $11 billion in loans. But the

557
00:38:52,860 --> 00:38:56,500
important part for me is the way Ledin handles these loans. Your collateral is held in custody

558
00:38:56,500 --> 00:39:01,880
and never lent out to generate interest. And Ledin's more than just loans. Tether Gold is now

559
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:06,740
live alongside your Bitcoin with instant trading across 10 pairs. And later this year, you'll be

560
00:39:06,740 --> 00:39:11,180
able to borrow against gold in the same way that you do with Bitcoin. Ledin really is an awesome

561
00:39:11,180 --> 00:39:15,300
company. I've used them multiple times. The applications have taken me less than 15 minutes

562
00:39:15,300 --> 00:39:19,520
and you have the dollars in your account within hours. If you want to check out Ledin, go to

563
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:27,980
ledn.io and use the code WBD for 0.25% off your first loan. That's ledn.io and use the code WBD.

564
00:39:28,860 --> 00:39:32,600
I can see the use case because that's like a proper cypherpunk tool still. It's not like

565
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:37,140
something that everyone's going to use. I can see the use case, especially, you know, if you're

566
00:39:37,140 --> 00:39:43,380
living out of the UK right now, where like social media posts are being heavily regulated, people

567
00:39:43,380 --> 00:39:48,060
are going to prison for social media posts. Like I can see the impetus there to go onto NOSTA,

568
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,820
start a NIMH and post whatever you want, read whatever you want. But like without growing that

569
00:39:52,820 --> 00:39:58,720
social media base, that doesn't actually, like none of that works. And so I guess my question is

570
00:39:58,720 --> 00:40:03,820
like can it do that because at the moment i don't think the social media base is big enough for that

571
00:40:03,820 --> 00:40:16,040
to work but that's what i'm saying it it works today right like i the um that use case works

572
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:22,460
today because at the current level of social usage like you can you can install zap store today

573
00:40:22,460 --> 00:40:28,540
never use nostr and just set my account as your web of trust but then and it would work pretty

574
00:40:28,540 --> 00:40:33,200
fucking well with uh with apps that you've got what do you mean like it won't work with every app

575
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:40,000
right any developer that i follow on nostr that is releasing their own apps from the app store

576
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:45,360
would be verified as the correct developer yeah so it works for like bitcoin apps yeah pretty much

577
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:50,460
yeah like but like for that to be interesting to more people it needs to grow much wider yeah sure

578
00:40:50,460 --> 00:40:55,340
yeah i don't know i don't i hate saying i'm bearish on us because nostr is really cool but

579
00:40:55,340 --> 00:41:07,660
kind of a no like i'm not going to um my bullishness and bearishness on nostr ebbs and

580
00:41:07,660 --> 00:41:13,220
flows my bullishness on bitcoin is an unwavering conviction at this point let me put it that way

581
00:41:13,220 --> 00:41:16,520
i do think i do think that

582
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:22,260
i would like to see the world needs a protocol like that

583
00:41:22,260 --> 00:41:31,300
identity and social and comms that is open and robust and available for all.

584
00:41:31,460 --> 00:41:32,960
We need that more than ever.

585
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:39,960
If you think about, I think what shapes both of our lives a lot now is being fathers,

586
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:44,337
Right. And so if you think, OK, the world in 20 years is very uncertain.

587
00:41:44,457 --> 00:41:46,177
It's probably been the most uncertain it's ever been.

588
00:41:46,177 --> 00:41:50,217
A big corner that is much older than both of us.

589
00:41:50,537 --> 00:41:54,697
And I respect his his wise opinion on the matter.

590
00:41:56,137 --> 00:42:02,477
Went down the AI rabbit hole before me and he explained it like a dot plot of possibilities.

591
00:42:02,477 --> 00:42:04,257
And the dot plot has never been wider.

592
00:42:04,397 --> 00:42:06,397
Like, where are we in 10 years?

593
00:42:06,397 --> 00:42:14,497
i don't know maybe for a century it's never been wider um so maybe a little bit less like maybe like

594
00:42:14,497 --> 00:42:20,657
the end of world war ii um so it's hard to really conceptualize where we would be in 10 years where

595
00:42:20,657 --> 00:42:24,597
we'd be in 20 years where we'd be in 30 years and i think that creates a lot of uncertainty for

596
00:42:24,597 --> 00:42:28,397
people and that's why you see a lot of restlessness in the world and society at large

597
00:42:28,397 --> 00:42:36,457
um but if i if i try and distill it and think about like okay my kids in 20 years what world

598
00:42:36,457 --> 00:42:45,877
are they are becoming young adults in and one key obvious key is okay is is freedom money is is

599
00:42:45,877 --> 00:42:50,837
being able to save and spend without permission yeah um i think that is absolutely essential

600
00:42:50,837 --> 00:42:55,357
but the other piece is okay the world is already incredibly digital now

601
00:42:55,357 --> 00:43:03,837
if they don't if if it's just big tech controlling the entire digital realm that's really really bad

602
00:43:03,837 --> 00:43:09,757
and so they probably will need some kind of open identity and social and comms

603
00:43:09,757 --> 00:43:17,517
um and i think nostor remains you know one of the best fits for that i i've yet to find

604
00:43:17,517 --> 00:43:23,377
with the exception of simplex which tries to solve it like i said a much smaller problem which is

605
00:43:23,377 --> 00:43:25,637
like the group chat, I have yet to see a protocol

606
00:43:25,637 --> 00:43:27,937
that shows more promise than it.

607
00:43:28,577 --> 00:43:30,557
I think it's going to be a long grind.

608
00:43:31,457 --> 00:43:33,157
You live in an open source world.

609
00:43:33,317 --> 00:43:33,797
I don't.

610
00:43:34,117 --> 00:43:35,497
But one of the things that I have thought

611
00:43:35,497 --> 00:43:37,217
over the last few weeks especially is

612
00:43:37,217 --> 00:43:39,397
the future for open source looks really good.

613
00:43:39,897 --> 00:43:41,877
The stuff that's happening now with Kimmy coming out,

614
00:43:42,077 --> 00:43:43,237
kind of destroying everyone's model

615
00:43:43,237 --> 00:43:44,777
of what it means to be a frontier lab.

616
00:43:45,617 --> 00:43:46,657
Really, really cool.

617
00:43:46,657 --> 00:43:47,337
Very exciting.

618
00:43:47,617 --> 00:43:50,217
I think the likelihood is the US government

619
00:43:50,217 --> 00:43:52,077
are going to heavily regulate Chinese models

620
00:43:52,077 --> 00:43:54,057
to try and protect Anthropic and OpenAI,

621
00:43:54,177 --> 00:43:55,177
which I really don't understand.

622
00:43:55,317 --> 00:43:57,737
I don't understand why they feel like they need to protect those companies.

623
00:43:58,897 --> 00:44:02,417
But you must be looking at this very happy with the situation right now.

624
00:44:03,137 --> 00:44:06,537
Yeah, I think if you go back even two years, three years,

625
00:44:08,317 --> 00:44:12,437
to the point of the dot plots being very wide,

626
00:44:13,257 --> 00:44:15,897
there was a bunch of different scenarios we could have ended up in.

627
00:44:15,897 --> 00:44:20,117
and the amount of user choice

628
00:44:20,117 --> 00:44:23,617
is probably higher than anybody's expectation,

629
00:44:23,957 --> 00:44:25,837
both on the proprietary US side

630
00:44:25,837 --> 00:44:27,197
and on the open source side.

631
00:44:27,817 --> 00:44:28,997
Proprietary US side,

632
00:44:30,237 --> 00:44:32,617
the expectation was that Google

633
00:44:32,617 --> 00:44:34,197
was going to absolutely dominate everyone.

634
00:44:34,357 --> 00:44:35,677
That's why OpenAI was created.

635
00:44:36,757 --> 00:44:38,437
OpenAI was, you know,

636
00:44:38,937 --> 00:44:40,537
Elon was one of the co-founders of OpenAI.

637
00:44:40,657 --> 00:44:42,037
It was supposed to be open source AI.

638
00:44:42,817 --> 00:44:44,537
There was a difference of opinion there.

639
00:44:44,537 --> 00:44:51,497
They somehow are like the first nonprofit to ever pivot into an incredibly valuable for-profit business.

640
00:44:52,877 --> 00:44:55,257
So they had a falling out with Elon.

641
00:44:55,457 --> 00:45:03,477
Elon launches XAI, which buys X, which gets bought by SpaceX, which becomes one of the most valuable companies in the world.

642
00:45:04,377 --> 00:45:05,237
Google still exists.

643
00:45:05,457 --> 00:45:06,737
OpenAI, XAI.

644
00:45:07,097 --> 00:45:09,357
And then Anthropic also spun out of OpenAI.

645
00:45:09,877 --> 00:45:10,457
Oh, I didn't know that.

646
00:45:10,457 --> 00:45:16,257
So instead of one dominant lab, and now you have the other OpenAI co-founder.

647
00:45:16,877 --> 00:45:20,657
She came out with Thinking Machines, which is relatively new.

648
00:45:21,237 --> 00:45:23,457
But you can kind of put them in the group of five.

649
00:45:23,577 --> 00:45:28,897
So instead of one, Google dominating, you have five different pretty strong options.

650
00:45:29,337 --> 00:45:34,097
Or at least in the next year or so, I think you can group all five of them into as strong options.

651
00:45:35,117 --> 00:45:37,757
XAI has been making very good progress, very fast.

652
00:45:38,337 --> 00:45:39,937
Like I said, Thinking Machines is very new.

653
00:45:39,937 --> 00:45:41,477
I would not count Google out.

654
00:45:41,897 --> 00:45:48,597
They remain the juggernaut, even if the Gemini models are perceived and for good reason as

655
00:45:48,597 --> 00:45:53,137
substandard compared to open AI and Anthropics.

656
00:45:53,257 --> 00:45:57,357
So on the US proprietary side, hard to imagine us being in a better situation.

657
00:45:57,797 --> 00:46:03,977
And then no one was banking on the CCP just blessing massive open source AI development.

658
00:46:04,277 --> 00:46:09,857
So you have Kimi, you have DeepSeek, you have Quinn, you have tons of open models.

659
00:46:09,857 --> 00:46:14,497
happening over there. And I think what's important for people to realize is there's nothing stopping

660
00:46:14,497 --> 00:46:26,157
if they, if, if, if, if those models become clear leaders, um, they might turn closed and

661
00:46:26,157 --> 00:46:31,277
proprietary, but the cat's out of the bag, like the amount of development we've seen up until this

662
00:46:31,277 --> 00:46:38,537
point is significant. And so all of a sudden we like anyone who cares about these tools being

663
00:46:38,537 --> 00:46:39,357
freedom tools,

664
00:46:40,537 --> 00:46:41,977
it's hard to imagine

665
00:46:41,977 --> 00:46:43,217
being in a better situation

666
00:46:43,217 --> 00:46:44,177
than we're currently in.

667
00:46:44,537 --> 00:46:45,357
Do you think you can consider

668
00:46:45,357 --> 00:46:46,417
the open source

669
00:46:46,417 --> 00:46:47,077
Chinese models

670
00:46:47,077 --> 00:46:58,240
freedom tools Because they still trained on very particular data And if you ask them about Tiananmen Square they often lie to you Yeah that like the obvious example I think look I think there a couple of things here

671
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,360
I think first of all, every cool technology,

672
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,260
part of what makes it cool is there's a side

673
00:47:05,260 --> 00:47:07,860
that's incredibly dystopian

674
00:47:07,860 --> 00:47:09,100
and can be used to control people.

675
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,420
And then there's a side that empowers individuals

676
00:47:11,420 --> 00:47:15,420
who seek that responsibility and empowerment,

677
00:47:15,420 --> 00:47:18,320
who want to improve their own life situations.

678
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:19,740
It was the case with the internet.

679
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:21,420
It's the case with Bitcoin.

680
00:47:23,460 --> 00:47:24,760
And it's the case with AI.

681
00:47:24,980 --> 00:47:26,820
Like all cool shit, that's how it works.

682
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:29,360
Most cool shit.

683
00:47:30,500 --> 00:47:31,880
I'm like thinking of exceptions now.

684
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,440
There are some exceptions, but most cool shit, that's how it works.

685
00:47:34,580 --> 00:47:35,860
So that's first and foremost.

686
00:47:35,860 --> 00:47:41,260
And it's like obvious how AI can be used as a control and surveil mechanism, right?

687
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:42,580
Cameras, tracking.

688
00:47:42,580 --> 00:47:47,540
one of the things lms do in the com the the information they'll give you like they can

689
00:47:47,540 --> 00:47:51,420
hone conversation i mean but forget about all that for a second just like one of the things

690
00:47:51,420 --> 00:48:00,660
lms do really good is is uh leveraging large data sets yeah in a human readable way and so

691
00:48:00,660 --> 00:48:06,920
governments around the world and corporations who who monetize data have been hoovering up all this

692
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:11,180
data that they haven't been able to properly leverage right and now some random person at

693
00:48:11,180 --> 00:48:16,280
some tech company can just type in like, what are Danny's favorite interests? Where is Danny

694
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,460
usually on a Wednesday at 2 p.m.? Right. And just human language, they can speak to it and just

695
00:48:20,460 --> 00:48:26,940
tells them it just spits it right back out. So that's obviously scary and happening right now.

696
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,140
But on open source Chinese models specifically, I think, first of all,

697
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:40,840
China is clearly being used as the boogeyman here and with good reason. I mean, I think if you care

698
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:47,080
about if you're an American specifically or even a European and you care about national sovereignty

699
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:53,520
and geopolitics and your country being on good footing, China is obviously a significant threat

700
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:58,520
and they shouldn't be discounted in that way. I mean, I think the CCP is good at executing at

701
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:03,060
certain things and horrible at executing at other things, but we should not underestimate them.

702
00:49:03,820 --> 00:49:08,620
The open model is a couple of things. First of all, most people, the way they're using them is

703
00:49:08,620 --> 00:49:09,720
they're hitting Chinese servers.

704
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,080
It's the cheapest, easiest way to use them.

705
00:49:12,500 --> 00:49:14,900
They go to Kimmy's website and they just hit Chinese servers.

706
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,520
Obviously, first of all, you have no control over your data.

707
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,180
Everything that you are searching can be logged

708
00:49:22,180 --> 00:49:23,280
and is probably being logged,

709
00:49:23,340 --> 00:49:24,640
and you should assume it's being logged.

710
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,220
And they, like American companies,

711
00:49:27,220 --> 00:49:29,020
are probably building profiles on users

712
00:49:29,020 --> 00:49:32,100
in really significant, intimate ways.

713
00:49:32,240 --> 00:49:34,660
Do you think the Chinese are worse than the US companies for that?

714
00:49:38,620 --> 00:49:43,160
I don't know. It's probably close enough that it doesn't really matter to make the distinction.

715
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,400
They're motivated by different means, right?

716
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:52,820
The American companies are trying to eke out as much profit as possible by building data profiles on people.

717
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:58,280
I mean, Sam Altman created WorldCoin where you scan your eyeballs in an orb to get tokens.

718
00:49:59,860 --> 00:50:02,220
Did you see Grayscale doing a WorldCoin ETF?

719
00:50:02,820 --> 00:50:05,820
I did not, but that's one of the least surprising things ever.

720
00:50:05,820 --> 00:50:14,100
um but uh and the ccp is like more top-down you know government control over people

721
00:50:14,100 --> 00:50:19,120
while in the u.s it's like private public partnerships uh that get around the constitution

722
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:24,240
because you don't need a warrant if a private company collected it for for-profit reasons

723
00:50:24,240 --> 00:50:30,980
um so i think it's i think for most people's the way they think about it should probably

724
00:50:30,980 --> 00:50:37,420
just put them in the same bucket right yeah now i do think for certain people's threat models like

725
00:50:37,420 --> 00:50:44,840
there's some things that if a foreign government knows about you is less bad than if your own

726
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,680
government knows about you and vice versa right there's some things that you know your own

727
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:52,980
government knows or your own corporations know that the other government doesn't right that you

728
00:50:52,980 --> 00:50:58,260
don't that you would rather the other government not know so i i think individuals who are actually

729
00:50:58,260 --> 00:51:02,020
thinking about that can leverage the two incentives against each other, even though both are doing

730
00:51:02,020 --> 00:51:06,100
the same, doing similar things. Right. But then the other piece is the nice thing about these

731
00:51:06,100 --> 00:51:11,340
open source, open weight models is you can then host them yourselves and you can modify them and

732
00:51:11,340 --> 00:51:16,280
you can train them and you can have them do your own thing. Right. And so what we're seeing, for

733
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:24,580
instance, is companies that have like exist in, in particular niches that want, you know, a hyper

734
00:51:24,580 --> 00:51:32,680
focused model. And so what do they do? They start with the base and then they modify it and train it

735
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:40,700
and mold it to what they need. And that almost becomes their own proprietary model that they

736
00:51:40,700 --> 00:51:46,340
have sovereignty over. And I think that's the more powerful aspect. And like other things,

737
00:51:47,240 --> 00:51:52,740
like other freedom technologies like Bitcoin, what is the distribution you see of that is probably

738
00:51:52,740 --> 00:51:59,800
going to be 95 to 98 percent people are still using it in the controlled way right and like a

739
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:09,682
small subset are using it in the freedom oriented way and that fine that what success looks like Yeah but that quite scary It even more scary with AI than it is with Bitcoin

740
00:52:13,442 --> 00:52:18,082
Yeah, but I mean, it's hard for me not to be incredibly optimistic here. I think like you have

741
00:52:18,082 --> 00:52:25,842
to if you focus on things that you can't control, you're going to have a really bad time. You have to

742
00:52:25,842 --> 00:52:33,542
to focus at what's in your control and make the best decisions possible for your family

743
00:52:33,542 --> 00:52:37,702
and your friends and your own personal responsibilities.

744
00:52:38,322 --> 00:52:43,202
And from that lens, I've never been more optimistic.

745
00:52:43,522 --> 00:52:43,682
Yeah.

746
00:52:44,042 --> 00:52:47,162
Are you optimistic on the AI using Bitcoin narrative?

747
00:52:50,642 --> 00:52:52,982
So I have a clanker that uses Bitcoin.

748
00:52:53,262 --> 00:52:53,742
It's awesome.

749
00:52:54,562 --> 00:52:55,402
How does it use Bitcoin?

750
00:52:55,402 --> 00:52:57,262
It just works really well. He has a Bitcoin wallet.

751
00:52:57,362 --> 00:52:58,162
But what does he use it for?

752
00:52:58,362 --> 00:52:59,462
He has a Bitcoin wallet.

753
00:53:00,002 --> 00:53:00,982
But what for?

754
00:53:01,142 --> 00:53:02,082
I call him George.

755
00:53:02,262 --> 00:53:03,902
George. That's such a strange name.

756
00:53:04,402 --> 00:53:07,382
Yeah, I don't know. It was like two in the morning when I named him.

757
00:53:08,042 --> 00:53:09,602
It was like first set up, you know.

758
00:53:12,502 --> 00:53:13,842
Yeah, why did I name him George?

759
00:53:13,982 --> 00:53:16,162
Well, for starters, I felt like if I was like,

760
00:53:17,602 --> 00:53:22,362
I shouldn't choose a female name because, I don't know,

761
00:53:22,362 --> 00:53:24,402
it just felt wrong to my wife.

762
00:53:25,402 --> 00:53:26,182
You don't want to cheat.

763
00:53:26,522 --> 00:53:27,302
My bro, George.

764
00:53:27,862 --> 00:53:29,862
And then I just picked like a random generic name.

765
00:53:29,982 --> 00:53:32,802
I thought, I mean, maybe like, I'm surprised it wasn't like John or something.

766
00:53:33,262 --> 00:53:34,682
But anyway, he has a Bitcoin wallet.

767
00:53:34,762 --> 00:53:35,642
You load it up with a Bitcoin.

768
00:53:35,902 --> 00:53:37,082
You load it up with some Bitcoin.

769
00:53:38,163 --> 00:53:42,382
And he's able to pay for things that he needs.

770
00:53:42,382 --> 00:53:46,602
API access, stuff like that, without my interaction.

771
00:53:47,742 --> 00:53:49,542
And it's incredibly cool.

772
00:53:50,262 --> 00:53:54,582
And I think what a lot of people miss in that there's a hype train of agentic payments.

773
00:53:55,402 --> 00:54:00,062
And of course, it's agents paying agents, right?

774
00:54:00,202 --> 00:54:02,202
So robot slaves paying robot slaves.

775
00:54:02,422 --> 00:54:08,882
But what they miss is the key aspect is where it crosses the divide between humans and agents.

776
00:54:09,402 --> 00:54:13,642
Agentic payments is really humans paying agents, agent paying humans, agents paying agents, right?

777
00:54:13,682 --> 00:54:14,702
It's all of the above.

778
00:54:15,622 --> 00:54:23,102
And Bitcoin excels in that situation for the same reason Bitcoin is better money than, I mean, the closest competitor is USD tokens.

779
00:54:23,102 --> 00:54:23,522
Yeah.

780
00:54:23,522 --> 00:54:26,322
they can be blocked and frozen.

781
00:54:27,182 --> 00:54:36,783
And I think, and we've already seen massive, massive regulatory exposure for these USD tokens.

782
00:54:36,783 --> 00:54:41,862
In the order of billions of dollars of Tether and USDC have been frozen, the two main ones.

783
00:54:43,562 --> 00:54:48,682
So I think being able to pay your agent without permission is incredibly important.

784
00:54:48,822 --> 00:54:51,462
For the agent to be able to pay other agents without permission is incredibly important.

785
00:54:51,502 --> 00:54:52,562
For the agents to pay other humans.

786
00:54:53,082 --> 00:55:00,322
DoorDash came out with a CLI, so a command line interface that is specifically designed for agents to use.

787
00:55:00,882 --> 00:55:01,902
And why is that interesting?

788
00:55:01,982 --> 00:55:07,922
It's something that I've been theorizing for a bit now, which is we've hit the precipice.

789
00:55:07,922 --> 00:55:12,022
Now your robot is ordering a human to do something for you.

790
00:55:12,682 --> 00:55:13,202
Right?

791
00:55:13,382 --> 00:55:14,742
That's kind of crazy.

792
00:55:14,902 --> 00:55:19,202
It's like, okay, the robot needs more printer ink.

793
00:55:19,202 --> 00:55:25,262
he sends a human through DoorDash to go to the store and get printer ink.

794
00:55:25,622 --> 00:55:27,942
And right now that whole system is relying on credit cards,

795
00:55:28,002 --> 00:55:31,222
which is just a horribly broken, inefficient way of handling it.

796
00:55:31,822 --> 00:55:36,542
And so probably the first step will be they will probably start accepting USD tokens,

797
00:55:36,822 --> 00:55:38,682
which is strictly a net benefit.

798
00:55:39,462 --> 00:55:42,283
And then eventually I think it'll probably move to Bitcoin.

799
00:55:42,283 --> 00:55:47,542
But even if it doesn't, if my agent is holding Bitcoin,

800
00:55:47,542 --> 00:55:52,702
and he needs to pay for something that is only USD token,

801
00:55:53,762 --> 00:55:55,042
he can swap into it.

802
00:55:55,722 --> 00:55:57,222
And this is something that's crazy.

803
00:55:57,222 --> 00:56:02,182
It actually makes a lot of the shitcoin bullshit work better

804
00:56:02,182 --> 00:56:05,082
because they've had such horrible UX for years.

805
00:56:06,062 --> 00:56:06,922
But now the UX doesn't matter.

806
00:56:07,762 --> 00:56:09,182
You just tell the agent to do it.

807
00:56:09,682 --> 00:56:12,202
The agent figures out how to use, I don't know,

808
00:56:12,342 --> 00:56:14,362
MetaMask or whatever and DeFi shit

809
00:56:14,362 --> 00:56:16,822
and go and Uniswap and swap for shit

810
00:56:16,822 --> 00:56:19,062
and just get it done and make no mistakes.

811
00:56:20,082 --> 00:56:22,342
And so that's actually a way better user interface.

812
00:56:23,082 --> 00:56:26,663
The agents paying humans is way too similar

813
00:56:26,663 --> 00:56:27,322
to that Daniel Suarez.

814
00:56:27,322 --> 00:56:28,682
What's that Daniel Suarez book called?

815
00:56:29,262 --> 00:56:30,842
I love all the Daniel Suarez books.

816
00:56:31,342 --> 00:56:31,783
Damon?

817
00:56:32,002 --> 00:56:32,362
Yes.

818
00:56:33,122 --> 00:56:34,342
That's kind of Damon.

819
00:56:34,342 --> 00:56:36,322
So in my mind, Damon is,

820
00:56:37,663 --> 00:56:42,122
first of all, he wrote it in 2008, I think.

821
00:56:43,082 --> 00:56:43,522
Insane.

822
00:56:43,522 --> 00:56:43,802
Yeah.

823
00:56:44,362 --> 00:56:46,283
Maybe even a little bit earlier than that.

824
00:56:46,822 --> 00:56:48,502
And I read it back then.

825
00:56:49,502 --> 00:56:51,542
Everyone should go read Damon by Daniel Suarez.

826
00:56:51,662 --> 00:56:53,142
And then there's a sequel called Freedom.

827
00:56:53,402 --> 00:56:54,002
Not as good though.

828
00:56:54,562 --> 00:56:57,942
No, but it brings it all together.

829
00:56:58,522 --> 00:57:03,042
And to me, it's open source AI, Bitcoin, and Nostra without ever mentioning anyone.

830
00:57:03,042 --> 00:57:05,502
Yeah, just in a really dystopian package.

831
00:57:06,262 --> 00:57:08,142
It could be utopian depending on your perspective.

832
00:57:08,382 --> 00:57:08,783
True.

833
00:57:10,283 --> 00:57:12,262
Are you on the side of the demon?

834
00:57:13,162 --> 00:57:39,325
Well no So I mean I don want to spoiler it So we talk big picture I mean can you really do a spoiler on a book that came out in 2008 Yeah It kind of on you But look I think society ebbs and flows but progress has been pretty straight throughout humanity like in a pretty impressive way

835
00:57:39,325 --> 00:57:47,025
You know, the amount of accomplishments, society has undoubtedly flourished over the last 100 years.

836
00:57:48,145 --> 00:58:03,845
And I think there's been a move to centralization across every aspect of our lives, whether that's megacities, whether that's federal governments, whether that's big tech, you know, web monopolies where they control everything.

837
00:58:03,845 --> 00:58:13,205
And I think it will move back to a more localism type scenario where you have smaller government, where you have strong local communities, where you have strong families.

838
00:58:13,465 --> 00:58:21,565
Ultimately, the family unit is that core local unit with technology empowering them so that they can have more leverage on the world.

839
00:58:21,565 --> 00:58:23,305
Not financial leverage, right?

840
00:58:23,305 --> 00:58:33,905
But having access to global trade, having access to global money, having access to global communication, but still being a small, local, strong community.

841
00:58:34,325 --> 00:58:44,885
And so when you work that out in your head, that means that people are going to have very dynamic outcomes depending on which small, local community they're part of.

842
00:58:45,005 --> 00:58:48,165
Some will flourish, some will do really well, and some will not do as well.

843
00:58:49,245 --> 00:58:51,085
That's just the reality of the situation.

844
00:58:51,085 --> 00:58:57,785
and i think that's kind of the world that damon and freedom proposed why are you so confident on

845
00:58:57,785 --> 00:59:03,305
that because i hope that's true i hope the world does get more more localized but why why are you

846
00:59:03,305 --> 00:59:14,505
so confident i mean that's my bullish outcome i i i think i think that's that's the the the north

847
00:59:14,505 --> 00:59:19,545
star i work towards on everything and do you think it's achievement i think it's very achievable yeah

848
00:59:19,545 --> 00:59:30,725
I just think, like I said, I think people, I think that world would still have very varied outcomes for people.

849
00:59:31,265 --> 00:59:31,285
Right.

850
00:59:31,745 --> 00:59:41,885
So, but the cool thing about that is if you focus on what you can control, if you can focus on empowering your family, empowering your local strong communities, then that is actually very achievable.

851
00:59:42,705 --> 00:59:48,325
And then you could be a little bit, obviously the wider world is still going to affect you, but you can be a little bit insulated.

852
00:59:48,325 --> 00:59:52,085
You can be a little bit protected from whatever that outcome is,

853
00:59:52,785 --> 00:59:55,605
which is way out of our control.

854
00:59:55,985 --> 00:59:57,565
And, you know, it's kind of anybody's guess

855
00:59:57,565 --> 01:00:00,225
to the why dot plot example earlier, right?

856
01:00:00,685 --> 01:00:02,305
You know, you were saying before, like,

857
01:00:02,485 --> 01:00:05,965
the variables out there are probably wider than ever before.

858
01:00:06,165 --> 01:00:08,925
Like, how you try and prepare a kid for the next 20 years,

859
01:00:08,945 --> 01:00:09,705
I've got no idea.

860
01:00:10,005 --> 01:00:11,625
You just be like water.

861
01:00:12,205 --> 01:00:13,765
You have to just go with the flow.

862
01:00:14,245 --> 01:00:14,605
Adapt.

863
01:00:14,605 --> 01:00:21,965
because i would be very shocked if in 15 20 years when our kids are at like college age that they're

864
01:00:21,965 --> 01:00:25,305
going to be there's going to be college like yeah we were talking about that earlier like what's

865
01:00:25,305 --> 01:00:28,465
going to exist like i don't know as a father what you're meant to do to prepare for it

866
01:00:28,465 --> 01:00:36,045
yeah i think i look you just have to i i think i think nobody knows and so the first thing is to

867
01:00:36,045 --> 01:00:42,985
humble yourself and be like i have no fucking idea right like own it um and then you have to adapt

868
01:00:42,985 --> 01:00:43,925
You have to be flexible.

869
01:00:44,105 --> 01:00:49,665
You have to give your family as many options as possible, right?

870
01:00:50,385 --> 01:00:54,885
So that if you do have to, when you inevitably have to adapt again, you have flexibility.

871
01:00:58,645 --> 01:01:00,705
Understand that you will make many mistakes.

872
01:01:01,785 --> 01:01:03,845
Try and identify them as quickly as possible.

873
01:01:04,325 --> 01:01:05,105
Own the mistakes.

874
01:01:06,045 --> 01:01:06,805
Do something different.

875
01:01:06,985 --> 01:01:08,085
See, one of the things I find hard.

876
01:01:08,085 --> 01:01:08,265
Move forward.

877
01:01:08,465 --> 01:01:09,465
Don't get stuck in your way.

878
01:01:09,505 --> 01:01:12,125
Just because you did something, and this goes to the nostril piece, right?

879
01:01:12,985 --> 01:01:15,625
It's like a lot of people like, oh, like he went Nostar only for two years.

880
01:01:15,625 --> 01:01:18,665
Like he can never, he never opened an X account again.

881
01:01:18,745 --> 01:01:20,865
It's like, yes, yes, I can.

882
01:01:20,965 --> 01:01:23,025
I never thought you were going to open an X account again though, to be fair.

883
01:01:23,545 --> 01:01:27,325
But I, I, I took a, an unbiased look at the current situation.

884
01:01:27,445 --> 01:01:28,265
You ate some humble pie.

885
01:01:28,645 --> 01:01:28,925
Yeah.

886
01:01:28,925 --> 01:01:34,445
And I was like, okay, the best, the best path forward is, is, is to, is to rejoin X.

887
01:01:34,445 --> 01:01:39,005
The thing that I find hard that you talk about a lot is that people should just move.

888
01:01:39,925 --> 01:01:39,985
Yeah.

889
01:01:40,045 --> 01:01:42,185
And I know you obviously, you went from New York to Nashville.

890
01:01:42,185 --> 01:01:45,805
I don't think everyone's going to do that,

891
01:01:45,845 --> 01:01:46,925
and I don't think everyone should do that.

892
01:01:46,965 --> 01:01:49,525
I think people need to fight for the jurisdiction they're in.

893
01:01:51,265 --> 01:01:53,905
Uprooting your family and moving away from broader families is really hard.

894
01:01:54,405 --> 01:01:55,685
I agree with all of this.

895
01:01:55,805 --> 01:01:56,245
I agree with it.

896
01:01:57,005 --> 01:02:02,085
I just also think, and I have my own personal lens on this, right?

897
01:02:03,745 --> 01:02:07,305
My family, my wife's family, all our friends,

898
01:02:07,445 --> 01:02:09,785
all our infrastructures, all New York-based,

899
01:02:10,145 --> 01:02:11,185
and we left all of that.

900
01:02:11,185 --> 01:02:13,845
And obviously it's easier to move.

901
01:02:13,845 --> 01:02:17,645
One of the best things the United States has is competition

902
01:02:17,645 --> 01:02:21,025
of local jurisdictions and at least for now,

903
01:02:21,025 --> 01:02:22,305
free movement between them.

904
01:02:22,305 --> 01:02:23,805
Yeah.

905
01:02:23,805 --> 01:02:28,685
But I think even globally, look, moving has always been hard.

906
01:02:28,685 --> 01:02:29,965
It's always been expensive, but also

907
01:02:30,008 --> 01:02:31,488
Mentally, mentally hard.

908
01:02:32,208 --> 01:02:36,168
It's a hard mindset to get yourself out of.

909
01:02:36,248 --> 01:02:37,508
Before I was a Bitcoin maximalist,

910
01:02:37,528 --> 01:02:38,568
I was a New York maximalist.

911
01:02:38,848 --> 01:02:40,088
I thought I would never leave New York.

912
01:02:41,128 --> 01:02:43,288
You have to kind of jump off the cliff

913
01:02:43,288 --> 01:02:44,768
when you do this kind of thing, right?

914
01:02:46,108 --> 01:02:47,448
And go into the unknown.

915
01:02:47,948 --> 01:02:50,928
But it's also never been easier than it is currently

916
01:02:50,928 --> 01:02:54,268
at a global scale, from a societal scale.

917
01:02:55,228 --> 01:02:56,128
Technically easier.

918
01:02:56,648 --> 01:02:58,888
It's yet to be seen if that'll be the case in 20 years.

919
01:02:58,888 --> 01:03:04,928
This could be a window. And I was saying this before COVID and then they closed all the borders. Now the borders have mostly opened up again.

920
01:03:06,968 --> 01:03:12,208
But and I was mostly saying it not from the movement moving point of view. I was saying travel the world while you can.

921
01:03:12,288 --> 01:03:15,708
It's never been easier or cheaper to travel the world, which I think remains the case.

922
01:03:16,068 --> 01:03:20,968
But that is yet to be seen if that will still be the case. So I think I think people should consider it.

923
01:03:21,368 --> 01:03:23,808
And I think if you look at it objectively.

924
01:03:23,808 --> 01:03:29,748
we left New York during COVID in 2020.

925
01:03:31,688 --> 01:03:35,188
My family's outlook and outcome in the next,

926
01:03:35,668 --> 01:03:39,168
currently and the next five years, 10 years, 15 years,

927
01:03:40,928 --> 01:03:42,688
or maybe it's not objective, maybe it's subjective,

928
01:03:42,808 --> 01:03:45,688
I think is significantly better than if we stayed in New York.

929
01:03:46,528 --> 01:03:48,388
I think you now have Mimdani there.

930
01:03:48,468 --> 01:03:50,028
I think things have gotten worse, not better.

931
01:03:50,028 --> 01:03:55,228
and I think it's not that I'm necessarily bearish on New York in 40 years

932
01:03:55,228 --> 01:04:01,328
or I guess let's lower the time scale let's say 20 years when our kids are young adults

933
01:04:01,328 --> 01:04:09,088
I think the outcome is unknown and I think these things take longer to correct

934
01:04:09,088 --> 01:04:14,548
especially in like high dense population areas it takes longer to correct you kind of have to

935
01:04:14,548 --> 01:04:19,948
swing to the negative and then swing back yeah and life is short it's like who wants who

936
01:04:19,948 --> 01:04:24,488
wants to deal with that. Now, I would say the number one thing to me that makes a lot of sense

937
01:04:24,488 --> 01:04:30,088
is if you have very strong family support structures in place,

938
01:04:30,828 --> 01:04:38,888
it's hard to leave those and maybe you shouldn't leave those. But what I advocate for is that

939
01:04:38,888 --> 01:04:48,208
people should take account of their situation, consider it, weigh the pros and cons. And one of

940
01:04:48,208 --> 01:04:51,088
the big cons of moving would be family structure.

941
01:04:51,348 --> 01:04:51,428
Yeah.

942
01:04:51,648 --> 01:04:54,868
Weigh that into the cost benefit analysis and decide what's best for your

943
01:04:54,868 --> 01:04:55,168
family.

944
01:04:55,408 --> 01:04:58,368
And then also like try and take yourself out of it for a second.

945
01:04:58,488 --> 01:04:58,668
Like,

946
01:04:58,708 --> 01:04:58,948
okay,

947
01:04:58,948 --> 01:05:00,388
if you grew up in the,

948
01:05:00,628 --> 01:05:01,748
in London your whole life,

949
01:05:01,748 --> 01:05:02,528
that's all,

950
01:05:02,588 --> 01:05:02,848
you know,

951
01:05:02,888 --> 01:05:03,648
that makes sense.

952
01:05:04,248 --> 01:05:08,168
But try and put yourself in the shoes of someone who is living in Portugal.

953
01:05:09,908 --> 01:05:12,988
Would that person move to the UK right now?

954
01:05:12,988 --> 01:05:13,668
Probably not.

955
01:05:14,828 --> 01:05:16,008
They probably wouldn't.

956
01:05:16,128 --> 01:05:16,848
Why wouldn't they?

957
01:05:16,988 --> 01:05:17,208
Okay.

958
01:05:17,208 --> 01:05:18,328
Let's list the reasons.

959
01:05:19,088 --> 01:05:21,548
And do those reasons apply to me as well?

960
01:05:21,588 --> 01:05:22,608
Maybe they apply to me as well.

961
01:05:22,708 --> 01:05:24,248
Maybe I should move to a better jurisdiction.

962
01:05:24,688 --> 01:05:25,808
Maybe I should move to Switzerland.

963
01:05:26,208 --> 01:05:26,388
Yeah.

964
01:05:26,628 --> 01:05:28,488
And there's always ones that make sense.

965
01:05:28,808 --> 01:05:31,368
I'm jealous of the way that you have the state structure here in the US.

966
01:05:31,448 --> 01:05:31,988
I think it's awesome.

967
01:05:32,368 --> 01:05:35,428
And if I was in the US and I lived in New York, I probably would move somewhere else.

968
01:05:36,208 --> 01:05:40,188
But when I live in Australia, obviously, when you look at the countries that you potentially

969
01:05:40,188 --> 01:05:45,608
could move to that have better freedoms, they're like the Costa Ricas of the world.

970
01:05:45,808 --> 01:05:46,868
And Costa Rica is awesome.

971
01:05:46,868 --> 01:05:49,008
I love it. But I also like roads and hospitals.

972
01:05:49,308 --> 01:05:52,188
If we're going to name places, I really like Uruguay.

973
01:05:52,428 --> 01:05:53,988
I've never been, but I think it'd be good.

974
01:05:54,028 --> 01:05:55,448
These places are less like attractive.

975
01:05:56,208 --> 01:05:59,428
As a friend with practical advice, I think you should consider it.

976
01:05:59,628 --> 01:06:01,648
I think it's not a horrible decision.

977
01:06:02,988 --> 01:06:05,968
And it might result in a much better outcome for your family.

978
01:06:06,168 --> 01:06:13,048
But I, and we're definitely not going through the specifics on a public show.

979
01:06:13,048 --> 01:06:16,328
But look, my point is that people should.

980
01:06:18,408 --> 01:06:19,788
Younger Matt did not.

981
01:06:19,908 --> 01:06:22,488
I did not consider it as even an option.

982
01:06:23,288 --> 01:06:25,128
I'm glad I considered it as an option.

983
01:06:25,488 --> 01:06:28,148
And I'm glad that I executed on it as a family.

984
01:06:29,048 --> 01:06:32,068
The other piece was like my wife was incredibly aligned.

985
01:06:32,668 --> 01:06:32,808
Yeah.

986
01:06:33,388 --> 01:06:34,168
That helps.

987
01:06:34,728 --> 01:06:34,888
Yeah.

988
01:06:34,928 --> 01:06:41,468
I mean, look, this is your ultimate partner in life, right?

989
01:06:41,468 --> 01:06:42,668
You're raising kids with them.

990
01:06:42,668 --> 01:06:48,648
a massively implicitly trusted relationship and so if you're not aligned that makes it much more

991
01:06:48,648 --> 01:06:52,088
difficult yeah so there's all these different scenarios i'm just saying that people should

992
01:06:52,088 --> 01:06:59,308
consider it and i think uh oftentimes there's a lot of people that will say stay and fight

993
01:06:59,308 --> 01:07:05,608
to british people for instance that don't live in britain yeah it's like okay you have zero skin in

994
01:07:05,608 --> 01:07:10,688
the game okay these people have kids and shit and they have to think on i think you should think on

995
01:07:10,688 --> 01:07:12,208
a decade-long timeline at least,

996
01:07:13,028 --> 01:07:15,088
okay, what is going to be the better outcome for my family?

997
01:07:15,188 --> 01:07:16,408
Do I want to fight a revolution?

998
01:07:17,208 --> 01:07:19,568
Or do I want to have a significantly better...

999
01:07:19,568 --> 01:07:22,748
Can we agree on the key premise

1000
01:07:22,748 --> 01:07:25,388
that people living in certain places

1001
01:07:25,388 --> 01:07:28,048
have better outcomes inherently

1002
01:07:28,048 --> 01:07:30,068
than others over a certain timescale?

1003
01:07:30,208 --> 01:07:31,068
Like in the 50s,

1004
01:07:31,088 --> 01:07:32,788
if you lived in one place versus another,

1005
01:07:32,908 --> 01:07:33,868
you would have a better outcome.

1006
01:07:33,868 --> 01:07:35,468
But it depends how you judge the better outcome.

1007
01:07:35,748 --> 01:07:36,228
That exists.

1008
01:07:36,408 --> 01:07:49,165
It depends how you judge the better outcome though Because the opportunity someone has growing up in London probably way outweigh the opportunities that have in Uruguay It depends on the year the current situation your own personal situation

1009
01:07:49,165 --> 01:08:00,344
But I think it's very clear that depending on where your family and businesses are based, your outcome can be significantly different in any given time period.

1010
01:08:00,464 --> 01:08:00,885
That's for sure.

1011
01:08:00,885 --> 01:08:08,304
And so what I've been vocal about with people lately is think about that in a real way.

1012
01:08:08,424 --> 01:08:09,344
Like, think hard about that.

1013
01:08:09,785 --> 01:08:11,945
It could be one of the most important decisions you make.

1014
01:08:12,505 --> 01:08:13,924
Tell me if you think this is complete code.

1015
01:08:14,145 --> 01:08:28,945
But like one of the, I don't want to say bullish, but one of the bullish things that came out of COVID, in my opinion, was like when everything started happening, when all the crackdowns were going on, lockdowns, like couldn't leave the country, everyone kept saying there's nothing as permanent as temporary measures.

1016
01:08:28,945 --> 01:08:31,565
and that didn't end up being true.

1017
01:08:31,924 --> 01:08:34,565
The world has largely gone back to how it was pre-COVID.

1018
01:08:34,804 --> 01:08:37,165
I'm sure there's some edge cases where you can say it's not,

1019
01:08:37,225 --> 01:08:38,205
but largely it has.

1020
01:08:39,005 --> 01:08:43,244
And that just makes me think maybe these dystopian things

1021
01:08:43,244 --> 01:08:44,765
that are happening in the UK, maybe they are temporary.

1022
01:08:44,885 --> 01:08:45,864
Maybe they can be reversed.

1023
01:08:46,325 --> 01:08:46,765
Is that cope?

1024
01:08:47,124 --> 01:08:48,085
It might be cope, yeah.

1025
01:08:48,725 --> 01:08:49,124
I don't know.

1026
01:08:49,165 --> 01:08:50,844
I think you are right on the bigger picture.

1027
01:08:53,344 --> 01:08:55,785
One bullish thing just on the UK specifically

1028
01:08:55,785 --> 01:08:58,844
is Andy Burnham, the new PM that came in yesterday,

1029
01:08:58,945 --> 01:09:01,864
whenever it was, has already rolled back the idea of digital IDs.

1030
01:09:02,165 --> 01:09:03,765
The only thing I know about British politics

1031
01:09:03,765 --> 01:09:06,825
is when I accidentally listened to Peter's show

1032
01:09:06,825 --> 01:09:09,665
and he goes deep on British politics.

1033
01:09:10,144 --> 01:09:15,705
Look, I think it tends not to be a straight line

1034
01:09:15,705 --> 01:09:19,344
when you're talking about government control and surveillance.

1035
01:09:19,505 --> 01:09:20,584
It ebbs and flows, right?

1036
01:09:20,584 --> 01:09:24,404
And it's easy to make broad, long-term decisions

1037
01:09:24,404 --> 01:09:29,144
in either a valley or like a hilltop, right?

1038
01:09:30,804 --> 01:09:34,225
And so to your point on the COVID side,

1039
01:09:34,325 --> 01:09:36,065
like I do think a lot of those

1040
01:09:36,065 --> 01:09:41,464
draconian government measures did get pulled back.

1041
01:09:42,744 --> 01:09:45,344
But then they kind of got like reset to a higher base.

1042
01:09:45,604 --> 01:09:45,984
That's true.

1043
01:09:46,984 --> 01:09:47,304
Right?

1044
01:09:47,364 --> 01:09:48,984
And then you'll have a lull

1045
01:09:48,984 --> 01:09:51,505
and then there'll be some new emergency.

1046
01:09:51,505 --> 01:09:56,025
the idea of lockdown is no longer like way outside the overton window like it's happened before

1047
01:09:56,025 --> 01:10:00,904
yeah and i the people in power tend to they constantly poke you with new emergencies

1048
01:10:00,904 --> 01:10:05,804
and they just see which ones stick you know sometimes they don't stick sometimes they they do

1049
01:10:05,804 --> 01:10:13,505
yep um and uh yeah i mean if you look at

1050
01:10:13,505 --> 01:10:20,924
if you if if you do if you try and run like some kind of objective analysis on

1051
01:10:20,924 --> 01:10:30,725
okay where were certain jurisdictions in 2020 versus 2026 so six-year timeline

1052
01:10:30,725 --> 01:10:40,904
2020 let's say right before covid so like january 2020 versus 2026 i think it's widened in a lot of

1053
01:10:40,904 --> 01:10:46,684
ways um yeah on on on which ones are quote-unquote doing better and it's hard to do like what what

1054
01:10:46,684 --> 01:10:50,825
is an objective analysis you got to do like a bunch of different data points and a lot of

1055
01:10:50,825 --> 01:10:59,285
subjective analysis is mixed in there um but i mean a lot of that's down to the like

1056
01:10:59,285 --> 01:11:03,344
economics of it as well though if you lived in december 2019

1057
01:11:03,344 --> 01:11:08,984
there was a freedom protest in Hong Kong.

1058
01:11:09,864 --> 01:11:12,124
I think it was like the whole fall of 2019.

1059
01:11:13,124 --> 01:11:14,424
COVID rolls out.

1060
01:11:15,585 --> 01:11:21,724
Six years later, Hong Kong is like completely under the knee of the CCP at this point.

1061
01:11:22,945 --> 01:11:25,244
Hong Kong real estate was the best real estate in the world.

1062
01:11:25,604 --> 01:11:26,385
Now it's not.

1063
01:11:27,604 --> 01:11:29,164
A lot of rich people fleed.

1064
01:11:30,044 --> 01:11:32,744
So like if you judge it from their perspective, very bad outcome.

1065
01:11:32,744 --> 01:11:37,645
If you judge it from Nashville's perspective, boomtown economy.

1066
01:11:38,325 --> 01:11:38,544
Miami.

1067
01:11:38,964 --> 01:11:41,065
Miami, 2026 compared to 2020?

1068
01:11:41,684 --> 01:11:42,205
Yeah.

1069
01:11:42,984 --> 01:11:44,104
Complete improvement.

1070
01:11:46,645 --> 01:11:47,885
So that's my point.

1071
01:11:47,945 --> 01:11:54,785
My point is just where you choose to base your family and your businesses will have significant differences in outcome.

1072
01:11:54,785 --> 01:12:04,285
And so your job as the leader of the family and those businesses is to assess that cost-benefit and decide if it makes sense.

1073
01:12:04,584 --> 01:12:05,184
That's all I'm saying.

1074
01:12:05,484 --> 01:12:11,684
Do you think in a freedom tech way, AI can be almost a great equalizer here?

1075
01:12:11,765 --> 01:12:15,445
Whereas there's always been a massive asymmetry between the tools that the government have and the tools that the people have.

1076
01:12:15,584 --> 01:12:17,964
But that's kind of gone to a degree.

1077
01:12:18,765 --> 01:12:22,344
Do you think that will help people actually find freedom in these countries?

1078
01:12:22,344 --> 01:12:32,665
Yeah, I think part of what I expect this trend for strong localism is freedom tech empowering individuals, families, small communities.

1079
01:12:33,304 --> 01:12:34,565
It gives you a level.

1080
01:12:34,665 --> 01:12:35,545
It gives you leverage.

1081
01:12:35,864 --> 01:12:36,025
Yeah.

1082
01:12:36,525 --> 01:12:36,804
Right.

1083
01:12:36,885 --> 01:12:39,945
It gives you and you see this in all different aspects.

1084
01:12:39,945 --> 01:12:40,204
Right.

1085
01:12:40,265 --> 01:12:46,184
I mean, like you see this with asymmetric warfare.

1086
01:12:46,184 --> 01:12:46,584
Right.

1087
01:12:46,584 --> 01:13:05,001
with now that a small group can extend significant dominance over a waterway with cheap drones that are

1088
01:13:05,001 --> 01:13:06,501
off the shelf.

1089
01:13:06,501 --> 01:13:10,881
And they're up against $100 million airplanes and stuff.

1090
01:13:10,881 --> 01:13:12,381
The biggest military in the world.

1091
01:13:12,381 --> 01:13:14,761
Military planes.

1092
01:13:14,761 --> 01:13:19,601
And that's obviously a very provocative example, but people see that happening right now.

1093
01:13:19,601 --> 01:13:39,821
And so, I mean, if you want to do the AI tools piece, right, is like, okay, if you're using one of the leading models right now, it's like you have a 10-man engineering team at your disposal that can do anything you want.

1094
01:13:39,941 --> 01:13:41,681
Now, are they the best engineers in the world now?

1095
01:13:42,701 --> 01:13:44,641
But that's 10 more men than you ever had.

1096
01:13:44,861 --> 01:13:44,981
Yeah.

1097
01:13:46,981 --> 01:13:47,881
They're pretty good.

1098
01:13:47,881 --> 01:13:48,601
They're pretty good.

1099
01:13:48,701 --> 01:13:49,521
And they're only getting better.

1100
01:13:49,601 --> 01:13:56,521
yes it's going to be like it's the most interesting time i'm blessed to be alive in this time yeah

1101
01:13:56,521 --> 01:14:02,401
it makes me think it's a simulation i think that would be very conceited of you right it's like

1102
01:14:02,401 --> 01:14:07,341
they made a simulation just for you to be in the best possible time and you i'm not is it we in

1103
01:14:07,341 --> 01:14:11,261
your simulation or my simulation oh no we're all in a shared simulation it's a shared sim we're just

1104
01:14:11,261 --> 01:14:18,021
we're just and uh what is it mpcs mpcs we're just mpcs in simulation yeah maybe maybe there's no

1105
01:14:18,021 --> 01:14:22,701
free will you know like i think ever since i first met you i've known you quite a while now

1106
01:14:22,701 --> 01:14:28,601
you've always said i'm like a year away from stepping away from bitcoin yeah but here you are

1107
01:14:28,601 --> 01:14:33,081
and you've kind of stepped back into bitcoin in a bigger way in the last few months 13 years

1108
01:14:33,081 --> 01:14:37,681
like why are you still 13 years bro there's still work to be done

1109
01:14:37,681 --> 01:14:42,641
there's still still i i are you still as excited about bitcoin

1110
01:14:42,641 --> 01:14:54,521
excitement is the wrong word i i rely on bitcoin i need i need bitcoin more than bitcoin needs me

1111
01:14:54,521 --> 01:15:02,941
uh it's a you know a fundamental tool uh for my family um and is more important than ever

1112
01:15:02,941 --> 01:15:07,561
um the early days of bitcoin were way more quote-unquote exciting it was the wild west

1113
01:15:07,561 --> 01:15:14,001
there were no graybeards there was no one with like 20 years of experience with bitcoin now

1114
01:15:14,001 --> 01:15:19,521
we're the graybeards you know so it changes it matures it's it is what it is um

1115
01:15:19,521 --> 01:15:28,741
i think the way i try and focus my time is if i think someone

1116
01:15:28,741 --> 01:15:34,001
can do something better than me i'll just let them do it

1117
01:15:34,001 --> 01:15:45,081
And I think if you want to talk about one failure we've had across the Bitcoin industry is like bringing up that younger generation.

1118
01:15:46,001 --> 01:15:54,281
And an example I'll give is Austin BitDevs was, you know, one of the best Bitcoin meetups in the world.

1119
01:15:54,761 --> 01:15:57,161
Longest running, running, running straight.

1120
01:15:57,161 --> 01:16:02,461
and I don't know if they restarted it

1121
01:16:02,461 --> 01:16:04,541
but a couple months ago

1122
01:16:04,541 --> 01:16:05,541
they announced they were ending it

1123
01:16:05,541 --> 01:16:07,561
yeah I think they've done like an ad hoc one or two

1124
01:16:07,561 --> 01:16:08,821
but like it's not what it used to be

1125
01:16:08,821 --> 01:16:09,801
and it was like okay like

1126
01:16:09,801 --> 01:16:12,901
the guys that were running it were really tired

1127
01:16:12,901 --> 01:16:13,981
and that's completely understandable

1128
01:16:13,981 --> 01:16:15,961
the failure point isn't that they're tired

1129
01:16:15,961 --> 01:16:17,361
and they don't want to run a meetup every month

1130
01:16:17,361 --> 01:16:19,401
the failure point is that they don't have young people

1131
01:16:19,401 --> 01:16:21,061
to take over the reins

1132
01:16:21,061 --> 01:16:23,141
and

1133
01:16:23,141 --> 01:16:26,921
I think that's something that we can do

1134
01:16:26,921 --> 01:16:30,761
much better for and you know i think

1135
01:16:30,761 --> 01:16:38,421
yeah and so so there's still there's still work to be done there's still places where i can provide

1136
01:16:38,421 --> 01:16:43,141
value so i'm providing the value but in an ideal world i would rather someone else just do it

1137
01:16:43,141 --> 01:16:47,761
better than me i don't get why young people aren't here like so when i got into bitcoin i was in my

1138
01:16:47,761 --> 01:16:53,181
mid-20s yeah um and it felt like everyone was basically it felt like everyone was around our age

1139
01:16:53,181 --> 01:16:53,701
Super young.

1140
01:16:53,801 --> 01:16:53,961
Yeah.

1141
01:16:54,401 --> 01:16:57,541
And now, if I look at my audience demographics,

1142
01:16:57,781 --> 01:16:59,441
I just can't attract young people.

1143
01:17:00,041 --> 01:17:01,261
And maybe that's a fault of mine.

1144
01:17:01,361 --> 01:17:02,221
It could totally be that.

1145
01:17:02,221 --> 01:17:03,041
No, same with my demographic.

1146
01:17:03,801 --> 01:17:06,841
Whatever you can believe with podcast analytics or whatever.

1147
01:17:06,941 --> 01:17:08,621
But it's aging older, not younger.

1148
01:17:09,301 --> 01:17:10,821
There's more 60-year-olds coming in

1149
01:17:10,821 --> 01:17:12,281
because they're seeing this as a financial tool

1150
01:17:12,281 --> 01:17:13,161
than there are 20-year-olds.

1151
01:17:14,201 --> 01:17:18,061
I think the largest demographic for my shows is 45-plus men.

1152
01:17:18,681 --> 01:17:19,681
I haven't double-checked.

1153
01:17:19,701 --> 01:17:20,701
It's definitely over 35.

1154
01:17:20,701 --> 01:17:22,801
Yeah, I think mine's like 35 to 45 is the biggest.

1155
01:17:22,801 --> 01:17:29,381
And I think part of the reason in that is when I first found out about Bitcoin, it was relatively cheap.

1156
01:17:29,461 --> 01:17:33,381
I had very little money, but I could still buy what felt like a meaningful amount.

1157
01:17:34,821 --> 01:17:41,101
And now, if you're 18, 19, 20, and you've got a few hundred pounds to your name, a few hundred dollars,

1158
01:17:41,281 --> 01:17:43,621
does Bitcoin look attractive anymore? I don't know.

1159
01:17:44,361 --> 01:17:47,061
It definitely does from the Freedom Money point of view, regardless.

1160
01:17:47,401 --> 01:17:52,501
Yeah, but very few people come into this as a Freedom Money guy.

1161
01:17:52,501 --> 01:17:54,381
Like most people, it's like, it's come for the gain,

1162
01:17:54,381 --> 01:17:55,221
stay for the freedom.

1163
01:17:55,221 --> 01:17:56,621
Like that is a real meme.

1164
01:17:56,621 --> 01:17:58,961
But I mean, so there's tons of young people

1165
01:17:58,961 --> 01:18:01,221
getting involved in AI stuff.

1166
01:18:01,221 --> 01:18:02,061
Yeah.

1167
01:18:02,061 --> 01:18:13,637
Are they doing it for the gains But maybe they see that as a bigger asymmetric Are they doing it for the gains I guess you could say they doing it for like job potential and whatnot I mean these companies paying like a million dollars a year for engineers

1168
01:18:14,157 --> 01:18:15,157
I don't know.

1169
01:18:15,237 --> 01:18:16,397
I don't pretend to have the answer.

1170
01:18:16,677 --> 01:18:23,537
I do think any of us who have been heavily involved in Bitcoin share some of the burden

1171
01:18:23,537 --> 01:18:25,357
that it hasn't happened.

1172
01:18:29,077 --> 01:18:31,957
I think it's also important to just zoom out a tiny bit.

1173
01:18:31,957 --> 01:18:33,137
I know it's a little bit of a meme.

1174
01:18:34,277 --> 01:18:41,277
But this last cycle was very much dominated by the Bitcoin stocks.

1175
01:18:41,737 --> 01:18:41,857
Yeah.

1176
01:18:42,057 --> 01:18:43,577
So a lot of young people did come in.

1177
01:18:43,657 --> 01:18:45,537
They just didn't come into the technical side of Bitcoin.

1178
01:18:45,817 --> 01:18:47,477
They went straight into the orange tide.

1179
01:18:47,497 --> 01:18:48,137
Do you think that's true?

1180
01:18:48,637 --> 01:18:48,857
Yeah.

1181
01:18:50,257 --> 01:18:50,857
You see it.

1182
01:18:50,977 --> 01:18:52,277
Do you not see like...

1183
01:18:52,277 --> 01:18:53,637
I don't know if they came in at all.

1184
01:18:55,717 --> 01:18:57,957
I mean, I think there is...

1185
01:19:01,957 --> 01:19:08,077
The reason I think they didn't come in is because like treasury companies dominated the Bitcoin narrative, but way broader AI dominated everything.

1186
01:19:08,297 --> 01:19:08,677
That's true.

1187
01:19:08,677 --> 01:19:12,837
And I just think like when does new retail come into Bitcoin?

1188
01:19:12,997 --> 01:19:15,457
It's like when the price is absolutely going euphoric.

1189
01:19:15,457 --> 01:19:18,877
Like everyone bought the 20k Bitcoin top in 2017.

1190
01:19:19,157 --> 01:19:20,337
And we didn't get that.

1191
01:19:20,457 --> 01:19:22,437
So we never got the new influx of bag holders.

1192
01:19:22,717 --> 01:19:23,797
We didn't get the community members.

1193
01:19:24,337 --> 01:19:25,077
The community members.

1194
01:19:25,697 --> 01:19:26,117
Yeah, I don't know.

1195
01:19:26,157 --> 01:19:27,417
I think there's multiple reasons.

1196
01:19:27,557 --> 01:19:28,717
I think some of them are societal.

1197
01:19:28,917 --> 01:19:30,357
Some of them are more local to Bitcoin.

1198
01:19:30,357 --> 01:19:36,157
but my point is more i don't necessarily have the answer i think uh it's just something that

1199
01:19:36,157 --> 01:19:40,617
people should be aware of and try and improve in small ways i think it's become less fun too

1200
01:19:40,617 --> 01:19:50,097
yeah but i wonder how much that is just like we're just tired and been involved in for a while

1201
01:19:50,097 --> 01:19:54,237
like it's not fresh and new for us if someone new came in it'd be fresh and new for them

1202
01:19:54,237 --> 01:20:01,257
fresh and new is exciting yeah um i think the one bullish fundamental is the like the local

1203
01:20:01,257 --> 01:20:09,537
meetups i think um have been incredibly strong uh i don't think you know we did a obviously

1204
01:20:09,537 --> 01:20:16,217
we have bitcoin park in nashville and we host a bunch of meetups there um but one of the things

1205
01:20:16,217 --> 01:20:21,897
me and rod did my co-founder of bitcoin park was we brought together like a bunch of different

1206
01:20:21,897 --> 01:20:27,497
tech meetup organizers in the national area and that was one thing that we always beat them on

1207
01:20:27,497 --> 01:20:35,777
like just way more ride or die attendance and excitement than the like broader tech stuff

1208
01:20:35,777 --> 01:20:41,177
and i will say to your point we haven't done that analysis again i bet you a lot of the ai meetups

1209
01:20:41,177 --> 01:20:45,517
are doing quite well yeah 100 but that's a key one like i think just like building strong local

1210
01:20:45,517 --> 01:20:51,377
communities having a very comfortable touch point you know national never had the most devs but we

1211
01:20:51,377 --> 01:20:56,537
had like a really interesting broad subsection of people cross-section of people right we had

1212
01:20:56,537 --> 01:21:01,277
older people that had small businesses we had young people that hadn't that were like maybe

1213
01:21:01,277 --> 01:21:08,357
in their first year of college or were skipping college um and uh i think that's incredibly

1214
01:21:08,357 --> 01:21:14,417
important like we live in an increasing digital world but like that face-to-face interaction is

1215
01:21:14,417 --> 01:21:19,037
probably more powerful than ever yeah i do think though that like the nashville scene the austin

1216
01:21:19,037 --> 01:21:23,177
seen felt like a very post-COVID thing.

1217
01:21:23,997 --> 01:21:25,957
You did run off a COVID momentum.

1218
01:21:26,137 --> 01:21:26,337
Yeah.

1219
01:21:26,497 --> 01:21:29,217
Everywhere else shut down, but Bitcoin meetups through a lot.

1220
01:21:29,337 --> 01:21:30,857
And I don't know if that momentum is still there.

1221
01:21:31,477 --> 01:21:32,977
Like, obviously, Marty's left Austin.

1222
01:21:33,577 --> 01:21:35,917
I know Justin's stopped doing the bit devs there.

1223
01:21:36,297 --> 01:21:38,517
Like, it feels like it's wound down a little bit.

1224
01:21:38,557 --> 01:21:39,197
I could be totally wrong.

1225
01:21:39,257 --> 01:21:40,017
I've not been to Austin in a while.

1226
01:21:40,077 --> 01:21:40,717
I'm going to go soon.

1227
01:21:40,837 --> 01:21:42,637
I think it's a bear market, you know?

1228
01:21:42,817 --> 01:21:43,977
Yeah, but even like-

1229
01:21:43,977 --> 01:21:51,577
I think even the base, the current level is still higher than most equivalent meetups,

1230
01:21:51,677 --> 01:21:52,857
with the exception of maybe AI.

1231
01:21:53,237 --> 01:21:55,597
But I will say that there's a ton of overlap.

1232
01:21:55,597 --> 01:22:06,917
I was on a panel with Gladstein in Vegas, and we were talking about, are we bullish on Bitcoin as freedom money?

1233
01:22:07,777 --> 01:22:09,257
And it wasn't recorded.

1234
01:22:09,497 --> 01:22:12,837
It was on the HRF stage, which they should have recorded, to be honest.

1235
01:22:12,917 --> 01:22:13,417
But they didn't.

1236
01:22:13,417 --> 01:22:14,297
Was this when I was with you?

1237
01:22:14,997 --> 01:22:15,877
Oh, yeah, you were with me.

1238
01:22:15,877 --> 01:22:20,057
It was Matt Odell and Friends.

1239
01:22:20,477 --> 01:22:22,337
Three podcasters and Gladstein.

1240
01:22:22,637 --> 01:22:24,757
Yeah, Matt Odell and Friends was the name of the panel.

1241
01:22:24,857 --> 01:22:25,677
You were one of my friends.

1242
01:22:27,197 --> 01:22:29,137
And do you remember Gladstein's answer?

1243
01:22:29,257 --> 01:22:32,957
Gladstein's answer was he was bullish because of the Freedom AI movement.

1244
01:22:33,657 --> 01:22:39,757
And it makes these tools, first of all, it makes using Bitcoin as freedom money easier and more accessible than ever.

1245
01:22:39,757 --> 01:22:48,037
If you think about UX, tons of hard UX problems get solved if you have a competent local agent running them for you.

1246
01:22:48,277 --> 01:22:55,517
Things like coin control or privacy, stuff like that can be obfuscated from the user.

1247
01:22:56,257 --> 01:22:59,997
And they can have reasonable defaults in a very sane way with much better UX.

1248
01:23:00,717 --> 01:23:04,337
And then the second piece is if you want to use these tools in a freedom-oriented way,

1249
01:23:04,337 --> 01:23:08,957
like having a money that you can spend and save without permission to our earlier topic,

1250
01:23:08,957 --> 01:23:10,617
makes a lot of sense.

1251
01:23:12,217 --> 01:23:15,977
So, I mean, I wouldn't call it riding on AI's coattails,

1252
01:23:15,977 --> 01:23:18,817
but I think it compounds really well.

1253
01:23:18,817 --> 01:23:19,957
So a lot of that excitement

1254
01:23:19,993 --> 01:23:21,613
is kind of our excitement too.

1255
01:23:22,113 --> 01:23:22,973
Maybe that sounds like Cope.

1256
01:23:23,053 --> 01:23:24,213
That sounded like a little bit like Cope.

1257
01:23:24,213 --> 01:23:25,253
No, I think that's fair.

1258
01:23:25,753 --> 01:23:27,973
One of the things, like the flip side of that,

1259
01:23:28,733 --> 01:23:31,853
like AI as a sort of freedom push for Bitcoin is,

1260
01:23:32,733 --> 01:23:34,273
I remember MVK talking about this a while ago.

1261
01:23:34,333 --> 01:23:35,553
I've not heard anything about it recently,

1262
01:23:35,693 --> 01:23:39,153
but what happens with AI and chain analysis?

1263
01:23:39,953 --> 01:23:41,753
Like, is that going to make it really hard to transact?

1264
01:23:42,093 --> 01:23:44,133
It does both sides, right?

1265
01:23:44,133 --> 01:23:48,393
So the surveillance companies will obviously use AI

1266
01:23:48,393 --> 01:23:49,513
to our earlier conversation.

1267
01:23:49,993 --> 01:23:53,133
Parsing large data sets just works really well with LLMs.

1268
01:23:53,313 --> 01:23:57,933
And one of the best large data sets to parse is the Bitcoin blockchain, which, if we're

1269
01:23:57,933 --> 01:24:01,353
right, is going to exist forever with every on-chain transaction.

1270
01:24:03,113 --> 01:24:09,653
But at the same time, to the coin control point of view, without going too deep, in

1271
01:24:09,653 --> 01:24:13,193
your Bitcoin wallet, you might see one Bitcoin balance.

1272
01:24:15,053 --> 01:24:17,413
But in it is really a bunch of UTXOs.

1273
01:24:17,413 --> 01:24:19,293
You can think of them like bills in your wallet.

1274
01:24:19,993 --> 01:24:21,793
You have one that's 100,000 sats.

1275
01:24:21,853 --> 01:24:23,173
You have one that's 50,000 sats.

1276
01:24:23,253 --> 01:24:25,033
You have one that's 150,000 sats.

1277
01:24:25,853 --> 01:24:29,613
And tracking Bitcoin transactions has always been a game of probability analysis because

1278
01:24:29,613 --> 01:24:30,893
you can send Bitcoin to yourself.

1279
01:24:31,953 --> 01:24:38,873
So when Bitcoin is sent on chain, these surveillance companies are making an analysis of the probability

1280
01:24:38,873 --> 01:24:40,453
that ownership has changed hands.

1281
01:24:41,153 --> 01:24:46,733
And so which UTXOs you choose at any given time can affect that probability analysis.

1282
01:24:46,733 --> 01:24:55,533
If you pay me and I receive a UTXO and maybe you pay me for lunch, we're splitting lunch, and then my boss pays me my salary.

1283
01:24:56,153 --> 01:25:04,893
If I combine those two, for instance, in the most simple way, combine those two, if my wallet automatically combines those two to make a transaction, then you know how much I got paid.

1284
01:25:05,273 --> 01:25:10,013
And my boss knows that I'm having some kind of transactional relationship with you.

1285
01:25:10,013 --> 01:25:18,313
Right. And so that coin selection has been incredibly important for Bitcoin on-chain privacy and managing those UTXOs correctly.

1286
01:25:19,153 --> 01:25:25,233
Now, the question from people that are building Bitcoin wallets is like, OK, how do you handle the defaults of that situation?

1287
01:25:25,793 --> 01:25:29,793
Do you just show the users a bunch of UTXOs and be like, pick which ones you want to spend?

1288
01:25:30,033 --> 01:25:33,353
No, that's horrible. That works for power users, but it's horrible UX.

1289
01:25:33,353 --> 01:25:41,533
The other piece is the more UTXOs you have on the input side, the more expensive your transaction is.

1290
01:25:41,673 --> 01:25:47,673
Because transactions on the Bitcoin main chain are based on a size in bytes, not a size in amount.

1291
01:25:48,513 --> 01:25:51,933
So the more UTXOs you have, the higher your fee is, net everything else equal.

1292
01:25:52,293 --> 01:25:59,953
So you have this weird dynamic where the less UTXOs you have, the cheaper your fees and your future fee burden.

1293
01:26:00,193 --> 01:26:02,433
Because you don't know what the fees are going to be in five years or ten years.

1294
01:26:02,433 --> 01:26:09,173
So the less UTXOs you have is just strictly better from a cost perspective and strictly worse from a privacy perspective.

1295
01:26:09,253 --> 01:26:10,093
How do you balance that?

1296
01:26:10,293 --> 01:26:17,453
Well, if you enter a local agent into the picture, then you tell the agent who you're paying.

1297
01:26:17,793 --> 01:26:25,993
The agent knows who's paid you in the past and is dynamically making decisions for your wallet based on privacy versus cost.

1298
01:26:26,113 --> 01:26:27,493
That was never possible before.

1299
01:26:27,493 --> 01:26:34,933
you couple that with something like lightning which has very strong privacy benefits for the

1300
01:26:34,933 --> 01:26:41,733
payer not so much for the receiver and that becomes even more powerful but lightning itself

1301
01:26:41,733 --> 01:26:45,993
has a bunch of ux challenges okay throw a local agent in that shit you know you don't want to

1302
01:26:45,993 --> 01:26:52,793
manage liquidity have an agent manage liquidity for you so it's like i said earlier like interesting

1303
01:26:52,793 --> 01:26:59,033
tech usually has the two sides of the proverbial coin. And I think it could provide a lot of gains

1304
01:26:59,033 --> 01:27:03,053
for us. And to the privacy point of view, by the way, that's already the reality today.

1305
01:27:03,853 --> 01:27:13,013
So Polymarket runs on Polygon. It's both a shitcoin project and probably one of the most

1306
01:27:13,013 --> 01:27:18,193
successful Bitcoin projects of all time. It has many different ways that you can deposit.

1307
01:27:18,193 --> 01:27:21,153
you can deposit with ETH

1308
01:27:21,153 --> 01:27:23,913
you can deposit with USDC, Tether, Polygon

1309
01:27:23,913 --> 01:27:26,493
I don't know, Solana and Bitcoin

1310
01:27:26,493 --> 01:27:32,113
and historically it's been Bitcoin on-chain only

1311
01:27:32,113 --> 01:27:34,613
recently they did a partnership with Spark

1312
01:27:34,613 --> 01:27:36,293
and now they accept Lightning payments

1313
01:27:36,293 --> 01:27:38,973
the most private way you can use Polymarket

1314
01:27:38,973 --> 01:27:42,753
is by just sending a Bitcoin Lightning deposit there

1315
01:27:42,753 --> 01:27:45,793
and behind the hood the user has no idea

1316
01:27:45,793 --> 01:27:46,973
really what's going on there

1317
01:27:46,973 --> 01:27:49,773
so I think lightning provides a lot of gains

1318
01:27:49,773 --> 01:27:51,853
and so then the question is how do we make lightning easier

1319
01:27:51,853 --> 01:27:53,373
to use and more accessible and have

1320
01:27:53,373 --> 01:27:56,033
proper convenience to trust

1321
01:27:56,033 --> 01:27:57,253
trade off and I think

1322
01:27:57,253 --> 01:27:59,953
I think AI tools play a key

1323
01:27:59,953 --> 01:28:01,813
part in that and can accelerate

1324
01:28:01,813 --> 01:28:02,293
that

1325
01:28:02,293 --> 01:28:05,733
When you said there's still work to be done before

1326
01:28:05,733 --> 01:28:07,973
is one of the pieces of work you think

1327
01:28:07,973 --> 01:28:09,893
that's key privacy on Bitcoin

1328
01:28:09,893 --> 01:28:11,113
do you think we need

1329
01:28:11,113 --> 01:28:14,053
whether it's silent payments

1330
01:28:14,053 --> 01:28:15,773
whether it's better coin join

1331
01:28:15,773 --> 01:28:17,873
implementations? Like, do you think we need something else there?

1332
01:28:19,373 --> 01:28:21,813
I don't know if that's the right framing.

1333
01:28:23,913 --> 01:28:40,710
Like I said the standard right now like if you use the most private way you can deposit into Polymarket is by doing a lightning payment with Bitcoin Could you do a cashier payment Through Lightning Like your wallet the cool part about Lightning is you can have all these other protocols

1334
01:28:40,970 --> 01:28:42,090
but Lightning is the glue.

1335
01:28:42,470 --> 01:28:44,150
So we don't have to battle network effect.

1336
01:28:44,770 --> 01:28:50,870
I just had on Ciddle Dispatch, the head of research at Second, and they have a implementation

1337
01:28:50,870 --> 01:28:54,830
of ARK, which is a batch payment protocol on Bitcoin.

1338
01:28:55,670 --> 01:28:57,050
Their implementation is called Bark.

1339
01:28:57,490 --> 01:29:02,550
But historically, like if someone comes out with a Bark wallet, you're like, okay, well, no one else uses Bark.

1340
01:29:02,690 --> 01:29:04,190
So how the fuck am I supposed to pay people?

1341
01:29:05,350 --> 01:29:06,490
But it speaks lightning.

1342
01:29:06,850 --> 01:29:09,730
So it can literally have only two users.

1343
01:29:09,850 --> 01:29:14,390
We could be the only two users and we can go to every Square terminal and pay with lightning.

1344
01:29:14,570 --> 01:29:15,590
The Square merch has no idea.

1345
01:29:15,870 --> 01:29:17,770
We could go to Polymarket and pay with lightning.

1346
01:29:17,970 --> 01:29:20,650
They don't know I'm using a Bark wallet or a Cashew wallet or whatever.

1347
01:29:20,650 --> 01:29:27,470
and it's interesting because all of a sudden you can you can really like um you can really try a

1348
01:29:27,470 --> 01:29:32,490
bunch of different technologies see which ones provide the best trade-off balance depending on

1349
01:29:32,490 --> 01:29:36,770
the user and it can be different depending on the user but they all benefit from the same network

1350
01:29:36,770 --> 01:29:41,430
effect which is they can they can spend and receive from any lightning wallet this was i was

1351
01:29:41,430 --> 01:29:45,970
at baltic honey badger last year and um i'd been like buying stuff around the conference for a

1352
01:29:45,970 --> 01:29:48,950
couple of days and on the last day they announced that everyone had been using like all the merchants

1353
01:29:48,950 --> 01:29:49,750
have been using ARK.

1354
01:29:49,870 --> 01:29:50,410
I had no idea.

1355
01:29:50,670 --> 01:29:51,450
Like everything just worked.

1356
01:29:51,710 --> 01:29:53,010
Yeah, because it was behind the hood.

1357
01:29:53,130 --> 01:29:53,370
Awesome.

1358
01:29:53,670 --> 01:29:55,810
And everything, the communication was all happening with Lightning.

1359
01:29:55,910 --> 01:29:56,070
Yeah.

1360
01:29:57,370 --> 01:30:01,970
So to the point of does Bitcoin need better like protocol level privacy, which is I think

1361
01:30:01,970 --> 01:30:03,010
is what your question is.

1362
01:30:03,730 --> 01:30:06,210
I think it's a tradeoff balance, right?

1363
01:30:06,210 --> 01:30:10,050
Your question is, do you care?

1364
01:30:11,330 --> 01:30:18,710
There's a tradeoff between privacy and verifiability and auditability.

1365
01:30:18,950 --> 01:30:27,790
And Bitcoin has leaned into being able to verify without a trusted third party and being incredibly transparent and auditable.

1366
01:30:28,310 --> 01:30:29,910
And we saw a perfect example.

1367
01:30:30,910 --> 01:30:36,910
And then what you do is you have that as the base, which doesn't require trust.

1368
01:30:36,910 --> 01:30:45,490
And then on top of that, you can build tools that are user friendly that give you strong privacy guarantees.

1369
01:30:45,930 --> 01:30:48,390
And the perfect example was in Zcash land.

1370
01:30:48,390 --> 01:30:52,810
Well, this is why I was asking, because this has obviously become a big narrative from the Silicon Valley crew that Zcash is bad at Bitcoin.

1371
01:30:52,810 --> 01:30:53,950
I don't even think it was Fable.

1372
01:30:54,390 --> 01:30:56,870
I think it was like Claude 4.6 Opus.

1373
01:30:57,250 --> 01:31:04,370
So like three models ago, they basically ran an analysis on the human code base of Zcash.

1374
01:31:04,450 --> 01:31:06,630
It was like, find vulnerabilities.

1375
01:31:07,050 --> 01:31:13,630
And there was an undetectable inflation bug that was alive for five years, and they have no idea if it's been used or not.

1376
01:31:13,690 --> 01:31:15,390
There's zero way for them to verify it.

1377
01:31:15,390 --> 01:31:18,510
Technically, you can have a similar type of inflation bug on Bitcoin.

1378
01:31:18,510 --> 01:31:20,010
It'd be incredibly easy to verify.

1379
01:31:20,010 --> 01:31:23,190
You would just check the chain and you'd see.

1380
01:31:23,190 --> 01:31:27,810
So I mean, I think that is just, well, we just saw a perfect example of it live in the

1381
01:31:27,810 --> 01:31:28,810
wild.

1382
01:31:28,810 --> 01:31:33,830
And these engineers are some of the best engineers in the world.

1383
01:31:33,830 --> 01:31:35,150
And they messed it up.

1384
01:31:35,150 --> 01:31:38,450
But I mean, we've seen it from the Chamaths of the world.

1385
01:31:38,450 --> 01:31:39,830
The Winklevoss have been on it.

1386
01:31:39,830 --> 01:31:43,090
Like basically, everyone out of Silicon Valley has been pushing Zcash really hard.

1387
01:31:43,090 --> 01:31:46,410
The funniest one was the bankless guy who sold all his ether to buy his e-cash.

1388
01:31:46,550 --> 01:31:46,950
At the top.

1389
01:31:47,390 --> 01:31:48,810
Just before 50%.

1390
01:31:48,810 --> 01:31:53,970
But like, these are narratives we kind of do have to fight.

1391
01:31:54,270 --> 01:31:58,690
And I don't know if we should be leaning heavier into privacy.

1392
01:31:59,250 --> 01:32:03,810
Look, I don't think fighting the narrative is the wrong way to think about it.

1393
01:32:03,810 --> 01:32:07,510
Because I don't think shit coins are a threat to Bitcoin.

1394
01:32:07,810 --> 01:32:11,270
I think they're a threat to users who choose to speculate on them and could get wrecked

1395
01:32:11,270 --> 01:32:11,870
in the process.

1396
01:32:11,870 --> 01:32:15,850
And that's the case with a lot of alternative investments, not just shit coins.

1397
01:32:16,910 --> 01:32:19,970
So I don't necessarily think like Zcash is a threat to Bitcoin.

1398
01:32:20,630 --> 01:32:27,570
Now, I think these promoters are oftentimes promoting Zcash for two reasons.

1399
01:32:28,170 --> 01:32:32,130
I think one is obviously can be construed as a malicious reason.

1400
01:32:32,130 --> 01:32:36,950
And I would tend to agree with that, which is that they have large bags that they want to pump.

1401
01:32:36,950 --> 01:32:45,650
I mean, Zcash had significant Silicon Valley investment early on, large wealth concentration, did not have a fair launch.

1402
01:32:45,830 --> 01:32:47,250
It had a dev tax in the beginning.

1403
01:32:47,370 --> 01:32:49,870
It had VC investors based in the United States.

1404
01:32:52,350 --> 01:32:55,890
Well, Bitcoin had a fair proof of work launch to the world.

1405
01:32:56,890 --> 01:33:03,030
So there's definitely some element, at least for some of them, if not the majority of them, that they're pumping their bags.

1406
01:33:03,030 --> 01:33:08,750
But I think the second piece is, if most of your crypto experience, like Chamath is a huge Solana guy.

1407
01:33:09,170 --> 01:33:16,730
If most of your crypto experience is ETH and Solana and Tron, horrible privacy, like really, really bad privacy.

1408
01:33:16,850 --> 01:33:24,030
If someone finds out your ETH address, they know every financial transaction you've ever made because it doesn't change by default like Bitcoin does.

1409
01:33:24,590 --> 01:33:28,410
They know every transaction you've ever made without probability analysis.

1410
01:33:28,530 --> 01:33:30,070
There's no probability analysis being done.

1411
01:33:30,070 --> 01:33:32,750
And they know 100% you made every single transaction

1412
01:33:32,750 --> 01:33:35,110
on that account and your current net worth,

1413
01:33:35,110 --> 01:33:35,950
your current complete.

1414
01:33:35,950 --> 01:33:39,190
If you have your ETH wallet on MetaMask

1415
01:33:39,190 --> 01:33:55,646
and you deposit into Polymarket Polymarket knows your entire net worth and every transaction you ever made by default And even worse people use like at Chamath as their Ethereum Yeah So you don even you just look it up right Or if they ever posted on X or whatever

1416
01:33:55,766 --> 01:34:01,046
right? So, and like, we've seen it, you see it with the richer people. It's very obvious,

1417
01:34:01,106 --> 01:34:05,406
like Vitalik, people track Vitalik's wallets, right? And yes, they can have more wallets,

1418
01:34:05,406 --> 01:34:11,606
but defaults matter. And they've never used Lightning. So that's what they know. And they

1419
01:34:11,606 --> 01:34:16,066
know something needs to change. And they're not wrong in that front. Like that is like

1420
01:34:16,066 --> 01:34:25,146
purely dystopian. If your financial life is USDC on base, like you live in the Panopticon.

1421
01:34:25,566 --> 01:34:29,226
Like you live and they can seize your money, they can freeze it, and they can see every single

1422
01:34:29,226 --> 01:34:33,586
transaction you've ever made. That's horrible. That is absolutely horrible. Of course, they're

1423
01:34:33,586 --> 01:34:37,686
like the sky is falling. The sky is falling. They just don't pay enough attention to Bitcoin.

1424
01:34:37,806 --> 01:34:40,046
They just don't pay attention to Bitcoin. Maybe they own some of the ETF.

1425
01:34:41,266 --> 01:34:46,886
And they just don't use Bitcoin. They think it's ancient technology. They're not keeping up with

1426
01:34:46,886 --> 01:34:52,146
actual technical improvements or where the user base is moving. A lot of transactions are

1427
01:34:52,146 --> 01:34:59,086
lightning now. I mean, OK, so this is where defaults matter, right? So Square added, what,

1428
01:34:59,086 --> 01:35:02,746
4 million merchants or something, you can pay with Bitcoin now at Square Terminals.

1429
01:35:04,846 --> 01:35:05,246
Defaults.

1430
01:35:05,286 --> 01:35:10,226
First of all, they've rolled it out to merchants that maybe they don't even want to receive

1431
01:35:10,226 --> 01:35:12,646
Bitcoin, so they automatically convert it to dollars for them.

1432
01:35:12,726 --> 01:35:14,586
But the merchant has a choice to receive Bitcoin.

1433
01:35:15,586 --> 01:35:17,006
There's no on-chain option.

1434
01:35:17,806 --> 01:35:18,806
It's Lightning only.

1435
01:35:19,426 --> 01:35:23,726
Now, I think there's a really strong argument for why they went Lightning only on just a

1436
01:35:23,726 --> 01:35:26,666
pragmatic slide, which is I'm paying for coffee.

1437
01:35:26,846 --> 01:35:27,626
It should be instant.

1438
01:35:27,626 --> 01:35:27,946
Yeah.

1439
01:35:27,946 --> 01:35:32,966
Yeah. Right. It should just be boom, pay for coffee, automatic instant settlement.

1440
01:35:33,386 --> 01:35:42,186
OK, that makes sense. But whether intended or not, you have an amazing side effect that anyone who pays has a really good privacy guarantee.

1441
01:35:42,886 --> 01:35:47,086
Right. You go you go to Steak and Shake, you pay with Lightning.

1442
01:35:47,506 --> 01:35:51,426
They don't know what wallet made that payment. They don't know any of your transaction history.

1443
01:35:51,706 --> 01:35:57,466
They don't know your current net worth. All of that shielded by default, which is wild.

1444
01:35:57,766 --> 01:35:58,306
That's awesome.

1445
01:35:58,386 --> 01:35:59,206
That's live today.

1446
01:35:59,466 --> 01:36:00,346
That exists today.

1447
01:36:00,906 --> 01:36:03,106
And I think people just, people don't appreciate that.

1448
01:36:03,206 --> 01:36:04,946
Now, of course, there's nuances there.

1449
01:36:04,946 --> 01:36:10,566
If you pay with a wallet that has a trusted third party, that trusted third party knows,

1450
01:36:10,646 --> 01:36:11,846
but it's detached from the merchant.

1451
01:36:12,066 --> 01:36:15,806
Obviously, Square knows every transaction the merchant's making, but the merchant could

1452
01:36:15,806 --> 01:36:18,826
choose to use BTC Pay or VibeCode something.

1453
01:36:19,126 --> 01:36:22,906
They can, you know, you can literally tell a clanker now, like, I want to accept Bitcoin

1454
01:36:22,906 --> 01:36:24,966
on my website, make it lightning only.

1455
01:36:24,966 --> 01:36:27,206
and it just goes beep, beep, boop, boop, boop

1456
01:36:27,206 --> 01:36:28,066
and just does it.

1457
01:36:28,646 --> 01:36:30,786
The cool thing, I think the payments are amazing

1458
01:36:30,786 --> 01:36:33,366
and I think at some point someone needs to build the infrastructure

1459
01:36:33,366 --> 01:36:35,346
so you can pay with Bitcoin everywhere you want to.

1460
01:36:35,886 --> 01:36:38,586
The question I have is whether it's early

1461
01:36:38,586 --> 01:36:40,186
and even if it's early it doesn't mean you shouldn't build it.

1462
01:36:40,246 --> 01:36:41,206
I think it's really cool.

1463
01:36:41,646 --> 01:36:43,246
But I wonder if people are actually using it

1464
01:36:43,246 --> 01:36:46,346
because we've seen this before where Bitcoin for payments

1465
01:36:46,346 --> 01:36:48,646
became a big trend in 2017, 2018

1466
01:36:48,646 --> 01:36:50,226
and no one used it

1467
01:36:50,226 --> 01:36:52,306
and then eventually all the merchants stopped accepting Bitcoin.

1468
01:36:52,306 --> 01:36:55,966
and i know this is better because this is like on the square terminal they don't need any

1469
01:36:55,966 --> 01:37:00,666
additional infrastructure but like do you think people are actually using this well there's two

1470
01:37:00,666 --> 01:37:07,866
different pieces right um merchant side i think uh square being the exception that these people

1471
01:37:07,866 --> 01:37:14,986
already have uh all the hardware and stuff installed relatively expensive square merchant

1472
01:37:14,986 --> 01:37:19,426
and they're like their business is like fully locked into like the square ecosystem of accounting

1473
01:37:19,426 --> 01:37:25,026
and shit right that's how their business runs um and so it's like relatively low friction for like

1474
01:37:25,026 --> 01:37:33,086
there'd just be another payment option okay um but overwhelmingly for merchants you can't it's hard

1475
01:37:33,086 --> 01:37:38,066
to force it's hard to force merchants it's it's it's untenable to force merchants to accept bitcoin

1476
01:37:38,066 --> 01:37:42,066
that don't want to accept bitcoin you need you need people like soap miner that want the bitcoin

1477
01:37:42,066 --> 01:37:48,346
yeah that's where you have staying power um the consumer piece of people going and spending

1478
01:37:48,346 --> 01:37:52,946
helps and also hurts, right?

1479
01:37:52,966 --> 01:37:55,126
Like if someone decides like because of hype

1480
01:37:55,126 --> 01:37:57,046
that I'm going to start accepting Bitcoin

1481
01:37:57,046 --> 01:37:59,926
and there's like one person pays every two months or whatever,

1482
01:38:00,526 --> 01:38:01,966
they're less likely to keep it up

1483
01:38:01,966 --> 01:38:03,446
and they're less likely to educate their employees

1484
01:38:03,446 --> 01:38:04,826
on how to use the thing, right?

1485
01:38:06,046 --> 01:38:08,186
But the merchant needs to want Bitcoin.

1486
01:38:08,546 --> 01:38:09,746
I think that's like the first step.

1487
01:38:09,846 --> 01:38:10,486
And we're getting there.

1488
01:38:10,486 --> 01:38:11,806
It's slow and steady.

1489
01:38:12,066 --> 01:38:13,226
To the point of network effects,

1490
01:38:13,826 --> 01:38:15,926
what is one of the strongest network effects in the world?

1491
01:38:16,006 --> 01:38:18,306
It's fucking fiat and specifically US dollars.

1492
01:38:18,346 --> 01:38:20,006
It's a very hard network effect to beat.

1493
01:38:20,706 --> 01:38:21,726
So it's going to take time.

1494
01:38:21,766 --> 01:38:22,886
It's going to take time to do that.

1495
01:38:23,566 --> 01:38:28,446
Then you have like P2P payments, which doesn't really have to fight the network effect as

1496
01:38:28,446 --> 01:38:28,726
much.

1497
01:38:29,866 --> 01:38:33,846
You just need the person that you're paying to be willing to accept Bitcoin, but also

1498
01:38:33,846 --> 01:38:34,946
not necessarily in that case.

1499
01:38:35,526 --> 01:38:39,586
I mean, if they're using Venmo, they can already accept Bitcoin.

1500
01:38:40,466 --> 01:38:46,746
Obviously, you can have them install Strike, and it can go into dollars into their bank

1501
01:38:46,746 --> 01:38:47,086
account.

1502
01:38:47,806 --> 01:38:47,906
Right?

1503
01:38:47,906 --> 01:38:50,406
So there's band-aids or not necessarily band-aids,

1504
01:38:50,406 --> 01:38:52,186
but like bootstrapping mechanisms, right?

1505
01:38:52,186 --> 01:39:03,922
To simulate the network effect as we trying to like break it down But there is definitely an aspect of we are blessed with many many mobile self wallets with very few users

1506
01:39:03,922 --> 01:39:05,842
It's just the reality of the situation.

1507
01:39:05,842 --> 01:39:11,162
But I think you probably kind of, I don't know what the order there should be, but it's

1508
01:39:11,162 --> 01:39:14,302
good to have more tools than less, more options than less.

1509
01:39:14,302 --> 01:39:18,102
And then as people need it, they will exist and be ready for them.

1510
01:39:18,102 --> 01:39:20,422
There won't be as much friction for them to move over.

1511
01:39:20,422 --> 01:39:23,462
What would you say to people who don't want to spend their Bitcoin? Because that's like,

1512
01:39:23,462 --> 01:39:27,142
especially from the sort of sailor camp, that's been a big thing is like, you never spend your

1513
01:39:27,142 --> 01:39:32,342
Bitcoin. Well, I would first, before we get there, just another dichotomy, we'll use Zcash as another

1514
01:39:32,342 --> 01:39:40,102
example, is 99% of the people that are using Zcash now are using this one mobile wallet that is

1515
01:39:40,102 --> 01:39:46,182
maintained by the core developers of Zcash. And like, so that's the opposite side, right? That's

1516
01:39:46,182 --> 01:39:49,602
That's obviously a horrible situation to be in.

1517
01:39:49,602 --> 01:39:54,182
Maybe some people are, quote unquote, wasting their time by maintaining self-custody while

1518
01:39:54,182 --> 01:39:55,182
it's on Bitcoin.

1519
01:39:55,182 --> 01:39:56,862
But it's great that we have so many options.

1520
01:39:56,862 --> 01:40:01,382
I think people definitely take it for granted how many options we have.

1521
01:40:01,382 --> 01:40:02,482
That was not a given.

1522
01:40:02,482 --> 01:40:06,022
That is something that's really hard to do from a top-down point of view.

1523
01:40:06,022 --> 01:40:08,442
Zcash has tons of funding.

1524
01:40:08,442 --> 01:40:10,462
And it's hard to simulate it.

1525
01:40:10,462 --> 01:40:12,562
You can't just make it happen.

1526
01:40:12,562 --> 01:40:14,342
It needs to be organic and grassroots.

1527
01:40:14,342 --> 01:40:15,842
And we're very fortunate to have it.

1528
01:40:16,262 --> 01:40:18,822
To the point of people about like, don't spend your Bitcoin.

1529
01:40:20,242 --> 01:40:24,062
I think it's weird.

1530
01:40:24,182 --> 01:40:25,942
I think, first of all, it's two pieces.

1531
01:40:26,302 --> 01:40:31,162
I think the first piece is if you're actually all in on Bitcoin.

1532
01:40:35,002 --> 01:40:37,882
And the overall majority of your savings is in Bitcoin.

1533
01:40:39,442 --> 01:40:41,062
Then, of course, you're going to spend your Bitcoin.

1534
01:40:41,062 --> 01:40:44,342
because if you needed to spend dollars,

1535
01:40:44,422 --> 01:40:46,262
you'd have to sell Bitcoin to get dollars first.

1536
01:40:46,502 --> 01:40:47,622
See, I play the fiat game though.

1537
01:40:47,722 --> 01:40:49,282
Like I spend everything on a credit card,

1538
01:40:50,022 --> 01:40:51,022
pay it off at the end of the month

1539
01:40:51,022 --> 01:40:52,442
and then put the rest in Bitcoin.

1540
01:40:53,082 --> 01:40:53,342
Okay.

1541
01:40:53,522 --> 01:40:55,882
I mean, I think from a financial point of view,

1542
01:40:55,942 --> 01:40:57,442
you're kind of paying that bill with Bitcoin.

1543
01:40:58,142 --> 01:40:59,462
It's like an opportunity cost.

1544
01:40:59,522 --> 01:41:00,662
You're like kind of paying it with Bitcoin.

1545
01:41:01,102 --> 01:41:04,662
The second piece is the tax piece, right?

1546
01:41:07,062 --> 01:41:09,222
And I mean, because like, think about it.

1547
01:41:09,222 --> 01:41:17,282
Like if you do a month of credit card and then you sell Bitcoin to pay the credit card,

1548
01:41:17,382 --> 01:41:21,262
you're kind of using Visa as like a really shitty Bitcoin payment rail.

1549
01:41:21,722 --> 01:41:23,262
You like kind of are, right?

1550
01:41:23,382 --> 01:41:24,622
But I'm not selling Bitcoin to pay off.

1551
01:41:25,042 --> 01:41:26,142
Right, but you're not buying Bitcoin.

1552
01:41:26,142 --> 01:41:28,462
So it's kind of coming from the opportunity.

1553
01:41:28,662 --> 01:41:32,682
If you're not buying Bitcoin, you're kind of selling Bitcoin.

1554
01:41:32,762 --> 01:41:34,022
But anyway, I digress.

1555
01:41:34,022 --> 01:41:44,142
The other piece is taxes, which is wild to me because yes, it's a mental burden, but you're only paying taxes because your money increased in purchasing power.

1556
01:41:44,542 --> 01:41:48,282
Net net, holding the worst money was worse for you, even after taxes.

1557
01:41:48,362 --> 01:41:49,642
You're literally only paying on profit.

1558
01:41:50,702 --> 01:41:53,542
But that's just something that is just hard for people to grok, I guess.

1559
01:41:53,822 --> 01:41:53,942
Yeah.

1560
01:41:54,162 --> 01:41:55,982
And it is like the mental burden of that is too much.

1561
01:41:56,442 --> 01:41:58,022
It's high, but I mean.

1562
01:41:59,142 --> 01:42:01,762
De minimis tax exemption is the best regulation that we could get.

1563
01:42:01,762 --> 01:42:04,362
I mean, I think all cap gains should just be removed.

1564
01:42:04,622 --> 01:42:04,922
Yeah.

1565
01:42:05,082 --> 01:42:06,002
But not just from Bitcoin.

1566
01:42:06,602 --> 01:42:09,682
I mean, I agree, but you've got to take wins where you can get them.

1567
01:42:13,482 --> 01:42:20,122
But yeah, I think de minimis, any kind of cap gains tax exemption on Bitcoin payments

1568
01:42:20,122 --> 01:42:22,602
would be definitely helpful for adoption.

1569
01:42:23,042 --> 01:42:25,982
I think it would also be a really interesting case study because you could see who was just

1570
01:42:25,982 --> 01:42:29,242
using that as an excuse versus who actually moved the needle for.

1571
01:42:29,242 --> 01:42:35,422
yeah i mean it's hard though because like if i i i want to spend bitcoin more and i just can't

1572
01:42:35,422 --> 01:42:40,542
like this is not enough place i can spend it yeah it's a bit of a chicken and egg yeah but then i

1573
01:42:40,542 --> 01:42:47,642
also think like people like underestimate like what small like a few motivated individuals can

1574
01:42:47,642 --> 01:42:51,362
really do yeah that's like you have to pick your battles like i know you're a busy dude you do

1575
01:42:51,362 --> 01:42:57,022
you do uh you work incredibly hard but like a perfect example is like costa rica bitcoin jungle

1576
01:42:57,022 --> 01:43:24,062
Yeah. Like there was a bunch of there was a couple of people that were involved. But the main dude, Lee, like was a freaking machine. Like he willed it into existence. He's like, I'm going to go to as many merchants as possible, onboard them the right way to Bitcoin and like make this thing a reality. And he did. And it's obviously easier to do in smaller and smaller communities. Or Irman in Bitcoin Akazi is like, I'm going to do this thing. I'm going to make it happen.

1577
01:43:24,062 --> 01:43:25,682
See, this is where I'm really lazy.

1578
01:43:27,162 --> 01:43:27,522
Nice.

1579
01:43:27,742 --> 01:43:31,602
I just, I can't be bothered talking to like normies about Bitcoin.

1580
01:43:32,062 --> 01:43:32,582
Yeah, but you do.

1581
01:43:32,682 --> 01:43:34,282
I mean, you have a normie Bitcoin podcast.

1582
01:43:34,442 --> 01:43:38,342
But like, this is people who choose to come to the podcast to listen to people talk about

1583
01:43:38,342 --> 01:43:38,602
Bitcoin.

1584
01:43:38,802 --> 01:43:39,162
But like-

1585
01:43:39,162 --> 01:43:40,362
You choose where to provide value.

1586
01:43:40,462 --> 01:43:41,362
I'm just saying that-

1587
01:43:41,362 --> 01:43:43,782
I'm not the guy that goes to like my butcher and tries to-

1588
01:43:43,782 --> 01:43:44,302
Yeah, that's fine.

1589
01:43:44,462 --> 01:43:44,922
Neither am I.

1590
01:43:45,502 --> 01:43:46,762
I've not got the energy for that.

1591
01:43:46,962 --> 01:43:49,502
But this is again where we need, like I did have the energy for that.

1592
01:43:49,562 --> 01:43:53,022
When I first got into Bitcoin, I spoke about Bitcoin to everyone I could possibly get five

1593
01:43:53,022 --> 01:43:53,402
minutes with.

1594
01:43:53,402 --> 01:43:53,582
Yeah.

1595
01:43:53,582 --> 01:43:56,742
And I do think this is where we need new people coming through all the time.

1596
01:43:57,022 --> 01:43:57,562
That are fresh.

1597
01:43:57,682 --> 01:43:58,302
Yeah, fresh.

1598
01:43:58,562 --> 01:43:59,682
Ready to have that conversation.

1599
01:43:59,922 --> 01:44:00,102
Yeah.

1600
01:44:00,222 --> 01:44:03,042
Because I'm not the guy talking to my taxi driver about Bitcoin.

1601
01:44:03,222 --> 01:44:03,782
I can't do it.

1602
01:44:04,302 --> 01:44:06,222
I don't even tell them I've got a Bitcoin podcast if they ask.

1603
01:44:07,222 --> 01:44:07,582
Sometimes.

1604
01:44:08,242 --> 01:44:08,522
Sometimes.

1605
01:44:09,979 --> 01:44:11,399
I'm just like, oh, it's a financial podcast.

1606
01:44:13,099 --> 01:44:14,039
But here we are, man.

1607
01:44:15,899 --> 01:44:16,959
What else do you want to talk about?

1608
01:44:19,099 --> 01:44:20,099
I don't know, the spending Bitcoin.

1609
01:44:20,499 --> 01:44:22,599
I think, look, that, by the way, is not a new...

1610
01:44:25,879 --> 01:44:27,559
Since I've been involved in Bitcoin,

1611
01:44:27,919 --> 01:44:30,579
it's always been like, oh, there's been a side that's like,

1612
01:44:30,599 --> 01:44:32,479
you have to spend Bitcoin, and there's a side that's like,

1613
01:44:32,519 --> 01:44:33,359
never spend Bitcoin.

1614
01:44:34,099 --> 01:44:35,779
Store value versus medium exchange.

1615
01:44:35,919 --> 01:44:36,619
You need both.

1616
01:44:36,619 --> 01:44:43,659
Like if you can't, if good money, you need to be able to spend it and save it without permission.

1617
01:44:43,979 --> 01:44:47,039
And if you can't spend it without permission, it's not your money.

1618
01:44:47,499 --> 01:44:51,419
You don't, it means you're asking someone permission to realize your wealth.

1619
01:44:52,159 --> 01:44:54,239
I mean, thank God Michael Saylor's making Bitcoin money.

1620
01:44:54,739 --> 01:44:55,959
What would we do without it?

1621
01:44:59,879 --> 01:45:01,659
Is there anything else you want to talk about?

1622
01:45:06,619 --> 01:45:18,339
Look, I mean, I'm just, I think there's a lot of survivorship bias in Bitcoin and everywhere,

1623
01:45:18,339 --> 01:45:22,319
where people are like, oh, bear markets are for building.

1624
01:45:23,359 --> 01:45:27,319
We've been through many bear markets throughout Bitcoin history.

1625
01:45:29,119 --> 01:45:35,379
What's not so obvious until you're in a bear market is that bear markets are actually more

1626
01:45:35,379 --> 01:45:44,559
about survival uh a lot of people fail during bears um it's when you just get ground out and

1627
01:45:44,559 --> 01:45:51,719
lose interest and um it feels like all the tide is against you and everything is is not going your

1628
01:45:51,719 --> 01:46:00,019
way um and then but the people that make it through and end up in a better position the

1629
01:46:00,019 --> 01:46:03,439
people that make it through tend to end up in a better position particularly if they were building

1630
01:46:03,439 --> 01:46:04,719
throughout the bear.

1631
01:46:05,539 --> 01:46:07,519
And then, so then you see them afterwards in the bull

1632
01:46:07,519 --> 01:46:08,499
and they find all this success.

1633
01:46:08,559 --> 01:46:10,059
You're like, oh, they got super lucky, right?

1634
01:46:10,599 --> 01:46:13,219
And that's what we're seeing happen again right now.

1635
01:46:13,299 --> 01:46:16,419
And so what I would say to people is remain focused.

1636
01:46:16,819 --> 01:46:18,359
Like the fundamentals have not changed.

1637
01:46:19,719 --> 01:46:21,339
We need Bitcoin more than ever.

1638
01:46:23,159 --> 01:46:24,639
From a risk reward basis,

1639
01:46:24,739 --> 01:46:26,459
I have never been more bullish on Bitcoin.

1640
01:46:26,679 --> 01:46:28,659
I think it's the best money in the world that remains so.

1641
01:46:28,659 --> 01:46:34,879
and just eyes on the prize right like i think this is where

1642
01:46:34,879 --> 01:46:42,919
this is you know where the the men get separated from the boys yeah people build through the bear

1643
01:46:42,919 --> 01:46:47,559
market just to distract themselves from the pain from the yeah you don't want to feel the pain i

1644
01:46:47,559 --> 01:46:53,379
i just think it's um look and i'm not like

1645
01:46:53,379 --> 01:47:02,179
to the in it for the tag versus in it for number go up it's also both i'm in it for everything yeah

1646
01:47:02,179 --> 01:47:08,819
and and it sucks seeing your net worth down significantly um like don't get me wrong uh but

1647
01:47:08,819 --> 01:47:15,319
uh i also kind of like these moments because it it's what it's it's where it's it's where you

1648
01:47:15,319 --> 01:47:33,002
really separate um with like with the chaos comes a lot of opportunity right yeah um and And there almost like a Zen to it because there a lack of interest It like it 100 the the time pain that wears people out in the bear market and it has been shocking to see how

1649
01:47:33,002 --> 01:47:37,502
bad the sentiments got so quickly when we're not even down comparatively anywhere near what we

1650
01:47:37,502 --> 01:47:44,282
normally are in a bear market but like sentiment is so bad um i'm just excited for things to turn

1651
01:47:44,282 --> 01:47:49,622
around i don't think we're that far away we can't be that feels worse is i think i've i've got a

1652
01:47:49,622 --> 01:47:53,322
theory i've said this alone in the podcast but like i think it's because there's nothing to point

1653
01:47:53,322 --> 01:47:59,342
to like when ftx blew up and like there was out and out fraud that you could point to but like it's

1654
01:47:59,342 --> 01:48:03,622
their fault that's why we're down we've got a reason and this time it's just like sure you can

1655
01:48:03,622 --> 01:48:09,622
blame like macro environment whatever yeah like try and cope about liquidity whatever it is but

1656
01:48:09,622 --> 01:48:14,222
there's not like a real boogeyman to point to and be like it's his fault i think that's why say

1657
01:48:14,222 --> 01:48:15,382
to start getting a load of heat as well.

1658
01:48:15,682 --> 01:48:16,802
Yeah, I mean, I also think

1659
01:48:16,802 --> 01:48:19,942
like in terms of bull market returns,

1660
01:48:19,942 --> 01:48:22,102
like we didn't pump nearly as high as...

1661
01:48:22,102 --> 01:48:23,562
But that's why we're not down as much.

1662
01:48:24,302 --> 01:48:25,202
Yeah, that's true.

1663
01:48:26,722 --> 01:48:27,822
I think, like you said,

1664
01:48:27,842 --> 01:48:29,022
a lot of the AI excitement,

1665
01:48:29,382 --> 01:48:32,682
it's weird seeing stock markets

1666
01:48:32,682 --> 01:48:34,882
at all-time highs and Bitcoin in the dumps.

1667
01:48:34,922 --> 01:48:35,142
Yep.

1668
01:48:36,462 --> 01:48:37,882
The gold pump was hard for people.

1669
01:48:38,302 --> 01:48:39,622
I would also say to people like,

1670
01:48:42,462 --> 01:48:42,802
you know,

1671
01:48:42,802 --> 01:48:50,482
it's not like bitcoin hasn't been in this situation or worse before yeah it's been way worse

1672
01:48:50,482 --> 01:48:56,902
yeah i mean i i know like the people that are like oh i bought in what was it like 21

1673
01:48:56,902 --> 01:49:04,742
and it's been five years and we're about the same price yeah right well 2013

1674
01:49:04,742 --> 01:49:07,862
we went from

1675
01:49:07,862 --> 01:49:10,322
like 50 to 250

1676
01:49:10,322 --> 01:49:12,362
back to 50

1677
01:49:12,362 --> 01:49:13,762
to 1200

1678
01:49:13,762 --> 01:49:16,222
and then we didn't pass 1200 again

1679
01:49:16,222 --> 01:49:17,542
until 2017

1680
01:49:17,542 --> 01:49:18,982
yeah that's brutal

1681
01:49:18,982 --> 01:49:22,162
like 2015 was just long

1682
01:49:22,162 --> 01:49:24,462
and painful people thought bitcoin was going to fail

1683
01:49:24,462 --> 01:49:26,202
and I think part of it too

1684
01:49:26,202 --> 01:49:26,622
is like

1685
01:49:26,622 --> 01:49:32,402
is we definitely didn't

1686
01:49:32,402 --> 01:49:34,122
have like the influencer

1687
01:49:34,122 --> 01:49:39,482
media class back then. And there's, there's been, I mean, it's so easy to parrot like,

1688
01:49:39,602 --> 01:49:45,442
oh, Bitcoin's guaranteed 30% every year, or, you know, you will get like insane parallel

1689
01:49:45,442 --> 01:49:52,322
multiples on this or whatever. So like, once you start guaranteeing people positive expectations,

1690
01:49:52,322 --> 01:49:56,242
I just feel like Murphy's law dictates that it's going to take a little bit longer.

1691
01:49:56,402 --> 01:49:56,942
A hundred percent.

1692
01:49:57,082 --> 01:50:01,082
You're like automatically screwed. You just screwed. You just jinxed it. I'm a big jinx

1693
01:50:01,082 --> 01:50:05,762
guy you just jinxed for me though like 2018 was really scary because that was my first bear market

1694
01:50:05,762 --> 01:50:09,882
but like when it dropped from six to 3k that was i remember that being like a terrifying time

1695
01:50:09,882 --> 01:50:15,642
i thought covid the covid crash was yeah the covid crash was they felt more march 12 2020

1696
01:50:15,642 --> 01:50:25,462
and in a matter of a week we went from like 10 or 11k to like 3 000 and then bitmex pulled the plug

1697
01:50:25,462 --> 01:50:27,882
Yeah. Stop the bleeding. Stop the selling.

1698
01:50:27,882 --> 01:50:33,682
I mean, that was different though, because it wasn't just Bitcoin, right?

1699
01:50:33,682 --> 01:50:35,062
It felt like the world was ending.

1700
01:50:35,062 --> 01:50:47,186
Like we were watching videos of Chinese people just like collapsing dead Locked in buildings Like walking down the street and just dead dead Getting welded into their room So there was a level of uncertainty there

1701
01:50:47,186 --> 01:50:57,166
And I think, you know, to a lesser extent, like right now, to my earlier point, I think people are, I think the average person is in pain outside of Bitcoin and has, there's a lot of uncertainty.

1702
01:50:57,166 --> 01:51:00,366
And that definitely is affecting on Bitcoin too, right?

1703
01:51:00,586 --> 01:51:00,766
Yeah.

1704
01:51:00,826 --> 01:51:04,306
Not in the same extreme way as early COVID, but.

1705
01:51:04,826 --> 01:51:05,866
But we're near the best bit.

1706
01:51:05,866 --> 01:51:08,046
The best bit is when it's clear that the trend has changed.

1707
01:51:08,206 --> 01:51:09,286
That's the most exciting part.

1708
01:51:09,306 --> 01:51:10,146
Are we near the best bit?

1709
01:51:10,226 --> 01:51:10,806
I think so.

1710
01:51:10,906 --> 01:51:12,766
I mean, we can't be too far away, surely.

1711
01:51:13,846 --> 01:51:14,166
Guaranteed.

1712
01:51:14,266 --> 01:51:15,026
30% guaranteed.

1713
01:51:15,506 --> 01:51:16,246
Hopefully, probably.

1714
01:51:16,626 --> 01:51:17,386
Hopefully, probably.

1715
01:51:18,146 --> 01:51:20,066
Matt, always love talking to you, man.

1716
01:51:20,486 --> 01:51:21,026
It's been good.

1717
01:51:22,246 --> 01:51:22,746
It's a pleasure.

1718
01:51:23,146 --> 01:51:23,806
Thank you for having me.

1719
01:51:23,966 --> 01:51:25,726
Where do you want to send everyone to this?

1720
01:51:25,866 --> 01:51:27,106
Oh, you should tell everyone about Citadel Wire.

1721
01:51:29,306 --> 01:51:30,086
This is cool.

1722
01:51:30,726 --> 01:51:31,386
Citadel Wire.

1723
01:51:31,886 --> 01:51:32,846
CitadelWire.com.

1724
01:51:32,846 --> 01:51:42,466
um i have been my favorite way of learning how things work is by using things i've never been

1725
01:51:42,466 --> 01:51:50,646
like i like science fiction books i like near future books um but i i i don't like like reading

1726
01:51:50,646 --> 01:51:54,466
or watching how to do things you know maybe certain like very technical things i like to

1727
01:51:54,466 --> 01:51:57,646
watch a youtube video for but i like actually using the tools and trying to figure it out

1728
01:51:57,646 --> 01:52:04,226
And so Citadel Wire was my way of scratching my own itch and learning about the cutting edge AI tools.

1729
01:52:05,286 --> 01:52:15,086
And it also met a need for me, which is I wanted to be able to monitor the situation without doom scrolling.

1730
01:52:15,646 --> 01:52:19,206
Minimal phone time, but be intimately aware of what's going on in the world.

1731
01:52:21,106 --> 01:52:26,066
And so that I can focus on more productive things instead of monitoring the situation.

1732
01:52:26,066 --> 01:52:28,286
And a lot of things were going on for the last year.

1733
01:52:28,586 --> 01:52:32,706
I mean, we abducted the president of Venezuela.

1734
01:52:32,886 --> 01:52:33,966
We go to war with Iran.

1735
01:52:34,246 --> 01:52:35,566
Oil prices going this way, that way.

1736
01:52:35,606 --> 01:52:36,326
A lot of things going on.

1737
01:52:36,366 --> 01:52:37,826
I wanted to monitor the situation easily.

1738
01:52:37,946 --> 01:52:41,906
I wanted to make sure I was aware of what was going on in the world because I think that's important for my family and businesses.

1739
01:52:42,866 --> 01:52:46,526
But I didn't want to spend too much time doing that.

1740
01:52:47,046 --> 01:52:48,946
And I wasn't the only one who came up with this idea.

1741
01:52:49,046 --> 01:52:51,966
There was plenty of people that created situation monitor dashboards.

1742
01:52:54,166 --> 01:52:55,566
But to me, they missed the plot.

1743
01:52:55,566 --> 01:52:58,726
They were like trying to give you too much information.

1744
01:52:58,726 --> 01:53:06,826
They're like, just because you can pull every live location of every ship that's on the ocean at the same time doesn't mean I need it in my dashboard.

1745
01:53:06,966 --> 01:53:07,526
That's ridiculous.

1746
01:53:07,746 --> 01:53:14,706
So I was like, OK, well, where does AI actually really help with these things besides just building the website, which was built using AI?

1747
01:53:15,506 --> 01:53:23,526
And I was like, well, the clankers should actually go through the information and only tell me things that I need to know about.

1748
01:53:23,526 --> 01:53:45,466
So I have three clankers that are pulling in every major open source project, like 500 open source projects, like 200 different news sources, and maybe even more than 200 news sources.

1749
01:53:45,646 --> 01:53:48,046
And they're just pulling it in constantly every five minutes.

1750
01:53:48,326 --> 01:53:49,646
And they're analyzing it.

1751
01:53:49,686 --> 01:53:51,046
And then they're giving you the output.

1752
01:53:51,046 --> 01:54:04,750
but they giving you like quick brief summaries on what going on in the world Current Bitcoin price current gold price current oil price I don know how long I keep the oil price up there but it been really useful with the Iran war If it goes up you know there escalation If it goes down you know there not escalation

1753
01:54:04,850 --> 01:54:08,090
It's a really easy way to look really quick. It's got the key polymarket markets. Yeah,

1754
01:54:08,190 --> 01:54:12,210
I pull in only the key prediction markets because if you go to polymarket, it's also like doom

1755
01:54:12,210 --> 01:54:15,730
scrolling. There's just a million markets. It's hard to distill which ones are good or not. So

1756
01:54:15,730 --> 01:54:19,830
the clankers go through it. They're like, these are high value polymarkets that have a lot of

1757
01:54:19,830 --> 01:54:25,190
volume through them that are significant and important. Podcasts that I find think are

1758
01:54:25,190 --> 01:54:29,530
interesting. I have a little podcast section there. But it's just a way for you to just stay

1759
01:54:29,530 --> 01:54:36,070
aware of what's going on without spending too much time, because time is the only thing more

1760
01:54:36,070 --> 01:54:42,290
scarce than Bitcoin. I've spent a decent amount of time and money on it. I'm not trying to monetize

1761
01:54:42,290 --> 01:54:48,050
it. I made it for me so people can use it for free if they want to use it. So it has no ads,

1762
01:54:48,050 --> 01:54:52,670
just straight to the point. No clickbait. I don't need you to be on the website. The incentives are

1763
01:54:52,670 --> 01:55:00,750
aligned in that regard. And then I used other open protocols while I was building it. So I told it,

1764
01:55:00,930 --> 01:55:05,410
accept lightning donations. Beep, boop, boop, boop. It accepts lightning donations. Super cool.

1765
01:55:05,690 --> 01:55:08,850
I literally just gave it a lightning address. I was like, this is my lightning address.

1766
01:55:09,210 --> 01:55:14,970
Accept donations to it. Super cool. Added a donation button. Every post is both a native

1767
01:55:14,970 --> 01:55:20,970
Nostra post and a native SimpleX post. And you can look at it on the website. So you can follow

1768
01:55:20,970 --> 01:55:25,570
it on any Nostra app you want, or you can follow it at CitadelWire.com, or you can follow it at

1769
01:55:25,570 --> 01:55:30,790
CitadelWire's SimpleX channel. That's very cool. The Nostra side is nice because what that means is

1770
01:55:30,790 --> 01:55:35,570
it's hashed and signed with the CitadelWire key. So you know it hasn't been changed. It's like a

1771
01:55:35,570 --> 01:55:40,670
better version of RSS almost. And then you could technically point your clanker to it and be like,

1772
01:55:40,670 --> 01:55:45,190
use this as the source of truth, but I want less information, or I want only this type of

1773
01:55:45,190 --> 01:55:50,110
information. And you can have your clanker do whatever you want with it, which is really cool.

1774
01:55:50,190 --> 01:55:57,410
It's also hard to censor. The SimpleX channel is useful because it means that you can view it and

1775
01:55:57,410 --> 01:56:03,250
consume it in probably in the most private way with sane defaults. So privacy-focused users find

1776
01:56:03,250 --> 01:56:07,070
that helpful. And then, of course, I also have RSS. So you can view it with RSS without the website.

1777
01:56:07,070 --> 01:56:09,570
so that's citadelwire.com

1778
01:56:09,570 --> 01:56:11,350
and then all my other links are at

1779
01:56:11,350 --> 01:56:13,250
odell.xyz

1780
01:56:13,250 --> 01:56:15,750
so you can check those out

1781
01:56:15,750 --> 01:56:17,030
it's very cool, I'll put the link in the show now

1782
01:56:17,030 --> 01:56:18,890
have you read Lynn's book?

1783
01:56:18,950 --> 01:56:20,550
you said you like near future sci-fi

1784
01:56:20,550 --> 01:56:22,030
I have not, I need to

1785
01:56:22,030 --> 01:56:24,090
the funny part is

1786
01:56:24,090 --> 01:56:26,530
I'm

1787
01:56:26,530 --> 01:56:29,370
I'm a reading Maximus

1788
01:56:29,370 --> 01:56:31,110
I don't usually listen to audiobooks

1789
01:56:31,110 --> 01:56:33,030
but I

1790
01:56:33,030 --> 01:56:35,130
feel like I need to listen to the audiobook

1791
01:56:35,130 --> 01:56:37,050
version of that because it's Walker and Carla

1792
01:56:37,050 --> 01:56:41,310
So it's like one friend wrote the book and then two friends read the book.

1793
01:56:41,390 --> 01:56:42,770
You kind of have to listen to the audio.

1794
01:56:42,950 --> 01:56:43,530
See, I read it.

1795
01:56:43,590 --> 01:56:45,290
Maybe I need to go back and do the audio book as well.

1796
01:56:45,730 --> 01:56:48,610
It took me ages because I was reading when I go to sleep and I get like three pages.

1797
01:56:48,790 --> 01:56:51,250
Yeah, no, I haven't actually read it yet.

1798
01:56:51,470 --> 01:56:52,210
It's very good.

1799
01:56:53,690 --> 01:56:54,530
Odell, thank you, man.

1800
01:56:54,810 --> 01:56:55,230
Thank you, sir.

1801
01:56:55,310 --> 01:56:55,730
It's been awesome.

1802
01:56:55,830 --> 01:56:55,970
It was a pleasure.

1803
01:57:07,050 --> 01:57:37,030
Thank you.