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The fiat system steals time, which it's a terrible thing to have to just suddenly break the promise that they made to these people.

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It just goes parabolic in terms of the interest expense.

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And then you're in this situation where, I mean, massive currency debasement will probably happen at that point.

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97% of institutional capital, almost $100 trillion, have investment mandates for equity and bonds, right?

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And that's trapped capital. We love Bitcoin and we want to drive its adoption because we think it's the most important technology of the 21st century. These positive developments keep coming every single week. And so you have this divergence of like improving fundamentals and depressed price. And typically that's a good opportunity, right? It's like zoom out the cliche and think long term because Bitcoin's value proposition has never been stronger.

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I think those price predictions that you hear that we're all wrong are eventually going to be right.

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But it's just the time rising and that's the hardest part to predict.

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Sam Callahan.

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Hey.

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How you doing, man?

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Great.

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It's been a little while since you've been on the show.

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Yeah, thanks for having me.

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Things have changed for you?

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Yes.

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Go on, tell everyone about your treasury company.

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So I'm the director of strategy and research at Orange BTC.

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We're the largest Bitcoin treasury company in Latin America.

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So we have 3,720 Bitcoin.

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We went public about eight weeks ago on the B3 stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Our mission is to accelerate Bitcoin adoption in Latin America and Brazil

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in a place and region that needs Bitcoin the most, right?

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They have so much currency debasement and instability there.

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They also have like high rates of digital asset adoption broadly,

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but still, there's a lot of work that needs to be done

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in terms of education,

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in terms of building out infrastructure,

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you know, Bitcoin financial services,

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Bitcoin products.

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We think Orange could be a leader in this

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and be like the Bitcoin hub,

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both improving Bitcoin access

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for pools of capital that can't buy spot Bitcoin,

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as well as, like I said,

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building out Bitcoin financial services

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and products over time

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and being kind of that...

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educational powerhouse for Bitcoin.

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Because, you know, it's kind of amazing.

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It's like two to three years behind

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in terms of like the Bitcoin understanding there.

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And even just writing like a Bitcoin 101 report

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that we just put out in Portuguese,

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you know, maybe some of the content

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is familiar to US audiences,

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but we released it and it was wildly popular

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because like, wow, I never thought about, say,

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like Cresis's total addressable market chart

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that everyone knows.

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Like we put that in Portuguese

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and they're like, oh, I never thought of it like that.

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So it just shows like how they're a little bit behind,

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but that presents a lot of opportunity

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for a company like Orange.

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Oh, there's massive opportunity there.

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Like especially the amount of stable coin usage there,

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like educating people about Bitcoin,

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why that's important.

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I think it's very cool.

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Congratulations.

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Thanks.

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I'm going to give you some shit about treasury companies.

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I'm going to ask you some of the hard questions

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because I'm still on the fence a little bit,

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but can we start with some macro stuff?

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Because you do a lot of macro analysis.

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You do reports with Lynn.

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What are the things that you're keeping an eye on most closely at the moment?

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Well, Lynn and I wrote that piece on Bitcoin's correlation with global liquidity.

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And so I always keep an eye on global liquidity conditions.

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And I think there was that chart going around that looks at Global M2 and Bitcoin.

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And there was a lot of disappointment because Global M2 was going up and Bitcoin's price has decoupled from it.

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And there was like, this is broken. This relationship's broken.

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It wasn't correct.

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But in the report, if you read it, there's an entire section that we wrote about how Bitcoin decouples from global liquidity conditions at times.

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And I think we're in one of those moments right now.

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So why do you think it would be decoupling now?

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Well, in the report, we talk about how a couple of things.

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When there's internal market dynamics, like within Bitcoin itself, it can override what's going on with liquidity.

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And that like, so for instance, like the FTX collapse, that was unique to Bitcoin, didn't matter what was going on with the Fed or the money printing. There was a lot of chaos going on in the Bitcoin market itself, and it got wrapped up in all that chaos. And so the Bitcoin price suffered despite liquidity conditions being either unchanged or actually improving. So that was one example, or like a good example would be the launch of the ETFs. You know, that added a lot of demand, even though interest rates were going up.

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So that decoupled to the upside.

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Yeah, exactly. So that's unique factors that can... idiosyncratic events that can lead to the

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decoupling. But then there's also supply-side dynamics. So think about liquidity as a demand-side

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dynamic. Well, supply-side dynamics can also override the liquidity conditions. And when I

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say supply-side, typically that means when you talk about the long-term holders. We probably

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talked about that in your show with other guests of how they've been taking some profits, which is

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normal behavior in a bull market. But when you see a lot of that, sometimes those dynamics can

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override the liquidity conditions too. And so I think lately that's exactly what we've been seeing.

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And so I don't think the relationship is broken. I think we're just in this temporary period

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where these other dynamics are at play, but they're temporary. And eventually,

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liquidity takes the wheel again. And right now what we're seeing is liquidity conditions in terms

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of 85% of global central banks

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are cutting rates already.

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Fed's obviously cutting rates.

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You're seeing some of these moves by the Treasury

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indicating that there's some tightness

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in liquidity conditions,

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which means they're returning to, say,

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like they're stocking QT.

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The Treasury's talking about issuing on the short end

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or the Fed's starting to buy T-bills.

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They also tweak the bank capital reserve requirements,

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which is to create more demand for treasuries

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because they know they got to do these trillion dollar deficits still, right?

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So like liquidity conditions will take the wheel again

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and they're actually going to be easing, it seems like,

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over the next year or two years, which is good for Bitcoin.

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So you think this is a temporary thing for Bitcoin?

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You don't think it's like four-year cycle type thing playing out?

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No, no.

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Because I mean, look, I look at the fundamentals.

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Like I always looked at the fundamentals.

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You look at the price, you're going to get wrapped up in the volatility.

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But when you look at what's going on over the last year, like I just wrote this other report and it was about major milestones in Bitcoin adoption.

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And I had to do two separate timelines because so much has happened in 2025 alone in terms of all the regulatory changes, all these institutional adoption, all these major news stories.

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It seems like every week we get something that it's like, wow, this is wild.

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So like last week, it was like Bank of America, right?

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Or like Vanguard pivoting.

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You know, these are like, they just keep,

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these positive developments keep coming every single week.

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And so you have this divergence of like improving fundamentals

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and depressed price.

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And typically, that's a good opportunity, right?

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So I think, I've never been more bullish on Bitcoin.

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I think it's an amazing entry point.

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Not financial advice or anything,

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but it's just, I've been in this for eight years now, and I've never seen such positive fundamentals

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for Bitcoin. So I don't follow macro anywhere near as closely as you do. But the thing that I

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always think, and this might be super simplistic, is the midterms of next year, the economy is

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incredibly important to the midterms, therefore economy is going to be good. And generally,

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if you have additional liquidity into the markets, Bitcoin is probably going to perform better than

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most things. But it's interesting that over the last few years, maybe the last two years,

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Bitcoin's not really had like an influx of new people coming to it. It doesn't seem like at

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least. And certainly not like in 2017 or 2021. And my kind of take on that is they're probably

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going to like AI stocks, which are running like crazy. I mean, weirdly gold has had more retail

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interest than Bitcoin, I think this cycle. Do you think that's coming back? Or do you think we're

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missing a narrative in bitcoin at the moment well you said i don't think more people are getting into

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bitcoin more retail maybe like it's not like this like speculative fervor that you've seen before

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like i mean you could have google searches but i think anecdotally you just feel it there's not like

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i mean you you worked at this podcast for a long time and so it's different right yeah um and you're

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right i think i think the casino over in the ai world and the returns over there and it's making

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Bitcoin not look as attractive or as exciting for people. And so that's probably part of the story.

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But that doesn't mean not a lot of people are going. It's just, it's more institutional,

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which is more money. Honestly, there's going to be more demand flowing from those institutions

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than the retail investors. And so it's just kind of different. It's like a different cohort coming

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in. But I think eventually the retail will get back in. And then maybe it's a different entry

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points. So obviously the ETFs kind of changed the game. And so BlackRock's ETF, most profitable now

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and almost $100 billion in AUM, probably a little bit lower now, but they might be going there,

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right? Instead of going into spot Bitcoin, they might be going through their financial advisors

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who are getting into Ibit for them. So I think it's just like a different market than it was

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in 2021 or 2027.

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But I think, you know,

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when Bitcoin starts running,

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number go up.

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I think they're going to come back.

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I totally agree.

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Because I think one of the weirdest dynamics is

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over the last year,

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I think Bitcoin has not been volatile

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enough for people.

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Yeah.

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And I think that's why you've seen

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loads of people go to treasury companies

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and like AI stocks.

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As soon as Bitcoin starts running,

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that might completely change.

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Yeah.

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And the volatility,

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if you look at like 90 day rolling volatilities,

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it was like historic lows for Bitcoin.

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You know, it's partly,

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probably because of, like I said,

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the changing investor base

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of more institutional investors coming in.

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And they kind of behave differently than retail

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is one thing,

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but also they use like hedging strategies.

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So they can like sell covered calls,

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which kind of dampens the volatility

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with those different hedging strategies.

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And so those option markets

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are more liquid than they were before.

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There's just more options for them to do those.

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And so I think those dynamics are at play here,

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but I don't think Bitcoin's volatility is like gone.

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I think when you have a fixed supply asset like this,

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it's never existed before ever.

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And so I think the next wave of demand,

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I do think you're just going to see volatility

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start to creep back up a little bit.

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I mean, maybe there's this secular trend of going down,

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which is going to continue,

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but I do think we're going to kind of see some more volatility.

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That's what we've seen, right?

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Over the last month, volatility came back.

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Maybe that's the direction that everybody wanted.

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Yeah, definitely came back.

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So I think that's going to happen again.

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Yeah, I hope so.

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And this year, I feel like no one predicted what the price was going to do this year.

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I don't know anyone that said.

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So from the day I started the podcast, it was a year, three days ago.

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The price was lower after a year.

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And I don't think there was any Bitcoiner that would have called that.

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No, no.

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I mean, myself included.

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I mean, because of these fundamentals, I thought it was going to be higher than it is right now.

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But at the same time, it's almost impossible to predict Bitcoin's price.

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I think that's the lesson here.

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It's like nobody actually knows in the short term where Bitcoin's going.

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But it's like zoom out the cliche and think long term because Bitcoin's value proposition has never been stronger given the macro environment that we're in.

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So over longer periods of time, I think those price predictions that you hear that we're all wrong are eventually going to be right.

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But it's just the time horizon and that's the hardest part to predict.

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meet the team at swan.com forward slash wbd which is swan.com forward slash wbd i mean so

250
00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,760
feeling pretty optimistic about like macro world for the next year or two but we've been talking

251
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:04,780
over the last few days and you said something that kind of surprised me you were saying that

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00:15:04,780 --> 00:15:11,740
you think social security and is it medicare as well yeah i'm kind of cooked well they are i mean

253
00:15:11,740 --> 00:15:16,160
it's just math it's just the arithmetic so this is something i've never really paid much attention

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00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:23,640
to. So tell me about this. Well, look, so Lynn and I wrote that piece on fiscal dominance. She's

255
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:28,660
been talking about nothing stops this train. And we wrote another piece on that topic.

256
00:15:29,500 --> 00:15:33,900
And at the end of the piece, I talked about how Doge was going to fail. And this was before

257
00:15:33,900 --> 00:15:39,300
everyone was really hyped up on it. And I tweeted, I said, two things can be true at once. Doge

258
00:15:39,300 --> 00:15:44,600
won't put a dent in the fiscal deficit, but it will maybe raise some awareness about fraud. And

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And so I think that aged pretty well.

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00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,360
And it really, why we knew that was we just ran the numbers.

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00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:53,480
Like we looked at what we actually spend the money on

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in terms of the fiscal deficits.

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And 70% of the spending occurs on mandatory entitlement programs.

264
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So by law, these are promises that they have to pay.

265
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So it's Social Security, Medicare.

266
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,640
And then the last one was interest expense, right?

267
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Which is huge.

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00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:10,020
Which is huge.

269
00:16:10,020 --> 00:16:12,940
And so that increased a lot when the Fed jacked rates.

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that's a little different.

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But so these,

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00:16:15,900 --> 00:16:16,540
and basically,

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00:16:16,780 --> 00:16:18,560
if we want to try to bring down

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00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:19,560
the fiscal deficits,

275
00:16:19,780 --> 00:16:20,860
like DOGE's goal,

276
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:22,520
you have to touch

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the entitlement programs.

278
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And the problem is

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DOGE didn't have

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any authority to touch it,

281
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that to change any

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00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,340
of the eligibility requirements

283
00:16:31,340 --> 00:16:32,880
or the benefits

284
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:34,980
takes an act at Congress.

285
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,860
And so we knew that

286
00:16:36,860 --> 00:16:38,460
most of the fiscal deficits

287
00:16:38,460 --> 00:16:39,100
was mandatory

288
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and that really,

289
00:16:40,380 --> 00:16:41,320
when you break it down,

290
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,800
if Doge couldn't touch any of that,

291
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:44,760
then they weren't going to do anything.

292
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And so that's exactly what happened.

293
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So when Elon was saying,

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hey, we're going to cut a trillion dollars here and there,

295
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:51,440
it's like, you run the numbers,

296
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:52,040
you're like, how are you?

297
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:52,840
You can't do that.

298
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:53,660
Like, you can't do that.

299
00:16:54,700 --> 00:16:58,300
And so it's concerning because, you know,

300
00:16:58,300 --> 00:16:59,880
when Lynn and I, at the end of that report,

301
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:01,780
we had a very balanced take.

302
00:17:01,860 --> 00:17:04,900
We were like, this isn't going to be dramatic this decade.

303
00:17:05,420 --> 00:17:06,640
You know, everything's going to run hot.

304
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,100
So inflation's going to run hot.

305
00:17:08,460 --> 00:17:09,580
GDP's going to run hot.

306
00:17:09,580 --> 00:17:14,540
deficits will continue to be very large because they're structural. When you say structural,

307
00:17:14,540 --> 00:17:18,880
I'm talking about those entitlement programs, basically. And so it's going to continue. But we

308
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:26,020
said the end of the decade. And when I was writing that, what I had in mind was that there's

309
00:17:26,020 --> 00:17:34,220
projections from the CBO that Social Security and Medicare are going to go insolvent by 2032,

310
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:39,420
which means for the first time, they're going to bring in not enough money to service all of the

311
00:17:39,420 --> 00:17:52,803
beneficiaries And so that a huge problem that coming down the horizon And so yes it not going to be dramatic at the end of this decade but when that happens things can get really dicey in terms of how we manage that

312
00:17:52,803 --> 00:17:59,103
problem. And it's coming. It's seven years away. And nobody's really come up with real solutions

313
00:17:59,103 --> 00:18:05,103
to how to address this. And you think about, I think about the foreturning a lot, because they

314
00:18:05,103 --> 00:18:10,523
say that the climax is going to happen in 2030 to 2032. And so I don't think it's a coincidence

315
00:18:10,523 --> 00:18:13,563
that were going to come into this period around that time

316
00:18:13,563 --> 00:18:17,103
right when these social security and Medicare go insolvent.

317
00:18:17,643 --> 00:18:20,263
And so we can get into like what that means and stuff.

318
00:18:20,263 --> 00:18:22,283
Yeah, I mean, and that's the longest timeframe.

319
00:18:22,583 --> 00:18:25,643
Like there's a reality where that happens earlier than 2032.

320
00:18:25,903 --> 00:18:27,463
But what does that exactly mean?

321
00:18:27,703 --> 00:18:29,903
Like is this, actually maybe a better question is,

322
00:18:29,963 --> 00:18:32,663
is this happening because of aging demographics?

323
00:18:33,403 --> 00:18:34,103
Yes, yeah.

324
00:18:34,183 --> 00:18:37,963
So it's a mix of, it's basically we have the workers

325
00:18:37,963 --> 00:18:42,203
that are funding these entitlement programs.

326
00:18:42,483 --> 00:18:43,903
And so we have a shrinking workforce,

327
00:18:44,123 --> 00:18:45,883
and that's because of falling fertility rates

328
00:18:45,883 --> 00:18:47,143
and all these different dynamics,

329
00:18:47,763 --> 00:18:49,503
as well as an aging population.

330
00:18:49,883 --> 00:18:52,063
And so next year, we're going to reach

331
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what they call peak 65,

332
00:18:53,983 --> 00:18:56,663
which is when you become eligible for Social Security

333
00:18:56,663 --> 00:18:58,963
and Medicare in the United States.

334
00:18:59,223 --> 00:19:02,503
And we have over 4.1 million Americans

335
00:19:02,503 --> 00:19:04,723
that are going to become eligible next year.

336
00:19:04,983 --> 00:19:07,243
It's going to be the largest retirement wave

337
00:19:07,243 --> 00:19:13,243
in U.S. history. And so the costs are going to really increase over the next four years as all

338
00:19:13,243 --> 00:19:18,583
these baby boomers finally become eligible for these programs. And at the same time, these

339
00:19:18,583 --> 00:19:24,463
projections, they don't take into account like any kind of war, any kind of financial crisis

340
00:19:24,463 --> 00:19:29,023
that would blow out the deficits even more. And then at the same time, the projections,

341
00:19:29,803 --> 00:19:35,803
they don't take into account like rising healthcare costs due to inflation. And so a lot of the

342
00:19:35,803 --> 00:19:43,643
projections have actually been lower than what's actually occurred because some of these changing

343
00:19:43,643 --> 00:19:48,843
rules around the healthcare system has actually increased the Medicare cost much, much more than

344
00:19:48,843 --> 00:19:54,223
they projected. And so each year, they project the insolvency actually like a year earlier,

345
00:19:54,543 --> 00:19:58,623
a year earlier. So like, if we think that they're going to keep spending it actually more than they

346
00:19:58,623 --> 00:20:04,703
project, then this could be like 2030, which is like five years away. And what I think about is

347
00:20:04,703 --> 00:20:09,663
like for me, I think about the pandemics like five years away and how like it just feels,

348
00:20:10,103 --> 00:20:14,643
it kind of feels like it was yesterday. And so five years from now, it's going to come up fast.

349
00:20:14,643 --> 00:20:14,883
It's going to come quick.

350
00:20:15,643 --> 00:20:21,803
And the worry is that there's only two ways to really solve this. So when we get to that point,

351
00:20:21,843 --> 00:20:25,903
it's not like suddenly it's like bankrupt and there's no money. It's more like

352
00:20:25,903 --> 00:20:33,923
the benefits are going to get cut by 25% overnight. And so you got older retirees who are

353
00:20:33,923 --> 00:20:43,843
dependent on Social Security. And so I just saw a fact that over 75% of retirees depend on their

354
00:20:43,843 --> 00:20:50,823
benefits for 50% of their income. And each one of them are cutting essentials because they feel like

355
00:20:50,823 --> 00:20:55,123
the cost of living doesn't keep up with their benefits. And so I have a lot of sympathy for

356
00:20:55,123 --> 00:20:59,723
these retirees because they're on fixed incomes. A lot of them, they depend on these and they're

357
00:20:59,723 --> 00:21:01,763
is suddenly going to get cut by 25%.

358
00:21:01,763 --> 00:21:03,423
And then on the flip side,

359
00:21:04,243 --> 00:21:05,663
you have the young people

360
00:21:05,663 --> 00:21:07,823
who have an affordability crisis,

361
00:21:08,383 --> 00:21:10,203
you know, asset prices have inflated,

362
00:21:10,363 --> 00:21:11,663
they feel like they can't get ahead.

363
00:21:11,983 --> 00:21:12,663
And then suddenly,

364
00:21:12,863 --> 00:21:14,543
if they have to get taxed even more

365
00:21:14,543 --> 00:21:15,603
to pay into this program

366
00:21:15,603 --> 00:21:16,723
that they're not even going to receive

367
00:21:16,723 --> 00:21:17,503
the benefits from,

368
00:21:18,043 --> 00:21:19,243
you have this system where you can,

369
00:21:19,443 --> 00:21:21,003
you have this dynamic where if you,

370
00:21:21,183 --> 00:21:23,303
if you cut the benefits for the old people,

371
00:21:23,563 --> 00:21:24,463
that's going to hurt them.

372
00:21:24,523 --> 00:21:25,303
That's one solution.

373
00:21:25,683 --> 00:21:27,783
Or if you raise the taxes for the young people,

374
00:21:28,323 --> 00:21:29,603
that's going to hurt them.

375
00:21:29,723 --> 00:21:36,523
And so you have this really terrible situation where it can lead to like a lot of generational

376
00:21:37,163 --> 00:21:37,723
conflict.

377
00:21:37,723 --> 00:21:38,203
Totally.

378
00:21:38,203 --> 00:21:38,603
Right.

379
00:21:38,603 --> 00:21:40,043
And so that's like the foreturning.

380
00:21:40,043 --> 00:21:44,923
It's all coming to a head and there's not really a great solution on the table yet.

381
00:21:44,923 --> 00:21:50,363
And so they're the two options that you see that's either tax young people or cut benefits.

382
00:21:50,363 --> 00:21:50,923
Yeah.

383
00:21:50,923 --> 00:21:55,963
Is there not an option where they will increase the age required to actually receive those payments?

384
00:21:55,963 --> 00:21:56,363
They could.

385
00:21:56,363 --> 00:21:57,803
Because that happened in the UK.

386
00:21:57,803 --> 00:21:59,263
Yeah, and that happened in France too.

387
00:22:00,383 --> 00:22:03,023
But that happened in France and there was riots on the street.

388
00:22:03,263 --> 00:22:04,443
I don't mean they riot over anything.

389
00:22:04,663 --> 00:22:05,263
Yeah, that's true.

390
00:22:05,723 --> 00:22:06,323
That's true.

391
00:22:06,863 --> 00:22:12,563
But I actually think about that a lot because it's like the fiat system steals time.

392
00:22:12,683 --> 00:22:12,903
Yeah.

393
00:22:13,203 --> 00:22:19,323
Which it's a terrible thing to have to just suddenly break the promise that they made to these people.

394
00:22:19,603 --> 00:22:24,083
And you're paying into it your whole life than saying like, actually, you got to do it two more years.

395
00:22:24,263 --> 00:22:24,563
Right.

396
00:22:24,603 --> 00:22:26,363
And so that would take an act of Congress to do.

397
00:22:26,363 --> 00:22:32,143
and and so they could do that um but the other thing they could do is try to print the difference

398
00:22:32,143 --> 00:22:37,463
yeah try to fill that hole and that's where it gets kind of worrisome because we're talking about

399
00:22:37,463 --> 00:22:45,063
to fill that hole would be about i ran the numbers you know anywhere from it's like another trillion

400
00:22:45,063 --> 00:22:49,683
or so on top of the fiscal deficit that they're already running crazy right could blow out the

401
00:22:49,683 --> 00:22:54,503
debt pretty large like very large and there's actually precedent for this so there's another

402
00:22:54,503 --> 00:23:01,503
smaller trust in the United States called the Highway Trust. And it helps fund transportation

403
00:23:01,503 --> 00:23:09,903
and highways and things like that, infrastructure. And it went insolvent in 2022. And that's exactly

404
00:23:09,903 --> 00:23:14,183
what they did, was they basically did what they call a general transfer. Well, they just took the

405
00:23:14,183 --> 00:23:19,043
money from the tax receipts, try to plug the hole for another five years, and it just added to the

406
00:23:19,043 --> 00:23:23,403
debt. And so now that's going to go insolvent in 2027, and they're going to have to do the same

407
00:23:23,403 --> 00:23:29,283
thing. So kicking the can down the road. But that trust is only like $75 billion. Social

408
00:23:29,283 --> 00:23:35,923
Security is like $2.4 trillion. And so I'm worried because if they don't come up with any kind of

409
00:23:35,923 --> 00:23:40,643
real solutions going up to that, that they might turn to that, like they did before with the Highway

410
00:23:40,643 --> 00:23:46,663
Trust. And if they try to feel the difference, deficits will blow out. And then even the CBO

411
00:23:46,663 --> 00:23:54,283
or the CFRB, which is another organization that follows us closely, they did a projection of what

412
00:23:54,283 --> 00:23:57,763
that would happen if they did try to fill it. And they're trying to warn them, don't do this with

413
00:23:57,763 --> 00:24:02,803
social security like you did with highway. Because if you do that, and interest rates rise because

414
00:24:02,803 --> 00:24:08,563
there's worries about the debt blowing out when they do that, it just goes parabolic in terms of

415
00:24:08,563 --> 00:24:15,583
the interest expense. And then you're in this situation where, I mean, massive currency debasement

416
00:24:15,583 --> 00:24:16,963
will probably happen at that point.

417
00:24:17,623 --> 00:24:20,163
And so it's all kind of coming to a head.

418
00:24:20,243 --> 00:24:22,543
The train is, nothing stops this train,

419
00:24:22,763 --> 00:24:25,063
but it's headed towards this cliff.

420
00:24:25,463 --> 00:24:26,103
It's a cliff.

421
00:24:26,683 --> 00:24:27,843
I wouldn't say cliff.

422
00:24:27,963 --> 00:24:29,783
It's just like, it's an obstacle.

423
00:24:30,103 --> 00:24:31,383
Like, it's like right there

424
00:24:31,383 --> 00:24:32,643
and everyone knows it's coming,

425
00:24:33,023 --> 00:24:34,603
but it's a long-term problem

426
00:24:34,603 --> 00:24:35,603
that they've kicked down the road

427
00:24:35,603 --> 00:24:36,903
over and over and over again.

428
00:24:37,103 --> 00:24:39,403
But finally, this is like the real time

429
00:24:39,403 --> 00:24:40,483
where it's going to come to a head

430
00:24:40,483 --> 00:24:42,663
and we have to do something about that.

431
00:24:42,903 --> 00:24:44,403
Yeah, and the problem is like

432
00:24:44,403 --> 00:24:50,223
taxing young people more or reducing the payments for the older people, like both massively

433
00:24:50,223 --> 00:24:54,363
politically unpopular. Like pressing the button is a much more subtle way. Like not everyone will

434
00:24:54,363 --> 00:24:57,163
be paying attention to that. People will still think they're getting their money, even though

435
00:24:57,163 --> 00:25:00,603
their cost of living might be increasing to a degree where they'd have been better just to take

436
00:25:00,603 --> 00:25:04,723
a haircut on their payments. Yeah. And it's literally like a, it's kicking the can because

437
00:25:04,723 --> 00:25:10,363
I mean, they'll fill the hole if they decide to do that for like another five years until it's the

438
00:25:10,363 --> 00:25:16,223
same problem again. And you could kind of see the way the political system is and the gridlock

439
00:25:16,223 --> 00:25:23,423
and nobody wants to deal with this stuff. It's like a likely scenario in my mind. Like they'll

440
00:25:23,423 --> 00:25:28,043
turn to that or like a combination, right? They'll fill the gap. They'll maybe drop benefits a little

441
00:25:28,043 --> 00:25:35,563
bit, tax a little bit more, but it can just lead to a big increase in the debt and a lot more

442
00:25:35,563 --> 00:25:38,983
currency debasement. Yeah. I don't know if this is just because I'm in my little Bitcoin echo

443
00:25:38,983 --> 00:25:42,783
chamber, but I've not really heard anyone talking about this. I mean, Lynn has mentioned on the show,

444
00:25:42,863 --> 00:25:48,543
I think a couple of times over the past few years, but I've never heard, I've not really seen people

445
00:25:48,543 --> 00:25:52,403
talking about this on Twitter much. And it seems like maybe the biggest like upcoming macro event

446
00:25:52,403 --> 00:25:56,923
that we have. It's the biggest because everyone talks about the sustainability of the fiscal

447
00:25:56,923 --> 00:26:02,303
outlook and the debt problem, but the debt problem is Medicare and social security. Like

448
00:26:02,303 --> 00:26:07,703
if you don't touch that and it's such a, like you said, it's like so politically charged

449
00:26:07,703 --> 00:26:14,943
and um i think there's gonna be it's gonna be the political topic over the next four or five it has

450
00:26:14,943 --> 00:26:20,003
to be because if like stan druckenmiller gave a talk like three years ago in 2022 to usc

451
00:26:20,003 --> 00:26:26,663
to the kids there i there's a transcript of it he gave this great speech and if you read it you can

452
00:26:26,663 --> 00:26:33,023
just through his words like how terrified he is of this this fiscal outlook and for for the children

453
00:26:33,023 --> 00:26:35,943
and how we have to start thinking about it.

454
00:26:36,023 --> 00:26:39,083
Each year that we don't come up with any solution,

455
00:26:39,363 --> 00:26:40,863
it gets worse and worse and worse.

456
00:26:41,783 --> 00:26:43,803
And so this has been going on for a long time,

457
00:26:43,903 --> 00:26:48,263
but again, it's like five to seven years away.

458
00:26:48,863 --> 00:26:51,023
And we have to start thinking about it.

459
00:26:51,203 --> 00:26:53,663
So potential solutions, like I said,

460
00:26:53,663 --> 00:26:56,043
is cut benefits, raise taxes.

461
00:26:57,883 --> 00:26:59,663
There's a couple other ones.

462
00:27:00,863 --> 00:27:02,483
So Dr. Judy Shelton,

463
00:27:02,483 --> 00:27:03,523
She's like an economist.

464
00:27:05,043 --> 00:27:06,583
She's a sound money advocate.

465
00:27:07,383 --> 00:27:10,223
She recently wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed

466
00:27:10,223 --> 00:27:13,803
that talked about gold-backed bonds.

467
00:27:14,503 --> 00:27:17,683
And so it's basically you would attach gold

468
00:27:17,683 --> 00:27:18,783
to like a treasury bond

469
00:27:18,783 --> 00:27:20,963
to add some like inflation protection.

470
00:27:21,363 --> 00:27:23,743
And then they would be probably really popular

471
00:27:23,743 --> 00:27:25,963
so the government will be able to issue those

472
00:27:25,963 --> 00:27:27,243
at a lower interest rate

473
00:27:27,243 --> 00:27:29,043
and maybe like a 10-year note.

474
00:27:29,463 --> 00:27:30,883
Because you're sharing in the appreciation

475
00:27:30,883 --> 00:27:32,263
of the gold at the end of the...

476
00:27:32,263 --> 00:27:35,023
Yeah, and you get gold at the end of the maturity.

477
00:27:35,423 --> 00:27:36,963
And so you got that inflation protection.

478
00:27:37,223 --> 00:27:39,383
So you could issue those more cheaply.

479
00:27:39,563 --> 00:27:40,923
And so that would be a way for the government

480
00:27:40,923 --> 00:27:42,823
to kind of finance itself in a way

481
00:27:42,823 --> 00:27:44,963
that's less expensive for them.

482
00:27:45,703 --> 00:27:47,963
Now, the problem with that is that's been done before.

483
00:27:48,123 --> 00:27:50,103
And it was done during World War I.

484
00:27:50,263 --> 00:27:51,403
They were called liberty bonds.

485
00:27:52,283 --> 00:27:55,383
And there was a promise made in 20 years

486
00:27:55,383 --> 00:27:57,003
that they would pay out in gold.

487
00:27:57,003 --> 00:27:58,883
And so they were extremely popular.

488
00:27:59,623 --> 00:28:01,603
They raised a ton of money for the war effort.

489
00:28:01,603 --> 00:28:06,303
uh americans were willing to give them the money because they had that inflation it could be

490
00:28:06,303 --> 00:28:13,083
redeemed in gold in 20 years and what happened though was fdr you know banned gold ownership

491
00:28:13,083 --> 00:28:20,383
in 1933 and then there was a massive devaluation the next year and then when these bondholders

492
00:28:20,383 --> 00:28:25,043
finally tried to redeem them they said well well it's illegal for you to own gold so you can have

493
00:28:25,043 --> 00:28:29,863
the cheap dollars instead and then one of those liberty bondholders said like wait like

494
00:28:29,863 --> 00:28:32,523
I just lost like 40%.

495
00:28:32,523 --> 00:28:34,663
You just devalued the currency

496
00:28:34,663 --> 00:28:36,543
and you're not going to give me gold like you promised.

497
00:28:36,763 --> 00:28:37,623
This is like illegal.

498
00:28:38,143 --> 00:28:39,683
And so it took them to the Supreme Court.

499
00:28:40,223 --> 00:28:41,343
And the court said that,

500
00:28:41,543 --> 00:28:43,663
yes, this was unconstitutional,

501
00:28:44,023 --> 00:28:46,363
but we're not going to give you the award.

502
00:28:46,523 --> 00:28:47,543
You get the dollars.

503
00:28:48,243 --> 00:28:49,743
And so, you know,

504
00:28:50,223 --> 00:28:52,343
it shows that there's two things wrong

505
00:28:52,343 --> 00:28:53,583
with the gold-backed bonds.

506
00:28:53,763 --> 00:28:55,423
It's you have to trust that the government

507
00:28:55,423 --> 00:28:57,683
actually has the gold to pay out.

508
00:28:57,783 --> 00:28:59,043
And you have to trust that they're actually

509
00:28:59,043 --> 00:29:03,103
going to follow through on their promise. And so that brings me to a potential solution,

510
00:29:03,263 --> 00:29:09,143
which is like the BitBonds. And like, we should be very open-minded to every single solution out

511
00:29:09,143 --> 00:29:14,023
there because like I said, this is a big problem. And so if people are like, well, Bitcoin solves

512
00:29:14,023 --> 00:29:18,543
this, like they should really keep an open mind because BitBonds is like a Liberty Bond,

513
00:29:19,123 --> 00:29:25,803
but obviously a Bitcoin instead of the gold. And Bitcoin has outperformed gold over that time. So

514
00:29:25,803 --> 00:29:29,383
but probably even better inflation over like a 10-year, 20-year timeline.

515
00:29:30,223 --> 00:29:32,943
But it also is, it's like programmable money.

516
00:29:33,543 --> 00:29:35,943
And so what you can do is like, you can put it in an address

517
00:29:35,943 --> 00:29:38,863
and you know that they have the Bitcoin and they're not going to,

518
00:29:38,863 --> 00:29:41,023
you don't have to trust that they have it in Fort Knox.

519
00:29:41,103 --> 00:29:42,123
You can trust they have the Bitcoin.

520
00:29:42,983 --> 00:29:45,823
And then you can actually do something like the mini scripts

521
00:29:45,823 --> 00:29:50,543
and have it programmed so that it sweeps the Bitcoin unilaterally

522
00:29:50,543 --> 00:29:53,703
at the end of the maturity so that the government can't rug pull them

523
00:29:53,703 --> 00:29:54,863
like they did with the Liberty Bond.

524
00:29:54,863 --> 00:29:59,723
and so and it's a way for they they could raise money at cheaper interest rates so

525
00:29:59,723 --> 00:30:06,363
bit bonds were brought up by brian estes and perry and boring and eric weiss originally and

526
00:30:06,363 --> 00:30:11,103
they there you can do different um structures with a bit bond but theirs was like a zero percent

527
00:30:11,103 --> 00:30:16,683
interest rate so the government raising at zero percent that's pretty good um or like andrew

528
00:30:16,683 --> 00:30:23,343
hones and matthew pines wrote a long report on their structure of a bit bond um it was a little

529
00:30:23,343 --> 00:30:27,563
bit different, but it actually, the way they structure it where the government would actually

530
00:30:27,563 --> 00:30:32,043
get some of the Bitcoin upside itself and it would go into the strategic Bitcoin reserve.

531
00:30:32,663 --> 00:30:36,743
And then that's actually even a long-term solution to the debt problem because the government's

532
00:30:36,743 --> 00:30:42,223
acquiring Bitcoin in the strategic reserve. And then over time, it can be used to extinguish the

533
00:30:42,223 --> 00:30:47,823
debt. And so that's a solution that they should consider for this big, big problem that's coming

534
00:30:47,823 --> 00:30:52,603
on the horizon. Yeah. And I mean, I really like the idea of Bitbombs. And I think it makes

535
00:30:52,603 --> 00:30:54,823
potentially more sense doing it in the way

536
00:30:54,823 --> 00:30:56,843
the government are sharing the upside because that

537
00:30:56,843 --> 00:30:58,863
gives them an incentive to do it. I think

538
00:30:58,863 --> 00:31:00,903
it's still a massive stretch to actually get them to do

539
00:31:00,903 --> 00:31:02,863
something like that. Especially if you're

540
00:31:02,863 --> 00:31:04,883
then going like, and also you can

541
00:31:04,883 --> 00:31:05,963
do this mini script thing.

542
00:31:06,563 --> 00:31:09,083
Yeah, I know. I think they're going to

543
00:31:09,083 --> 00:31:10,863
if they did this, they would take custody

544
00:31:10,863 --> 00:31:12,543
of it and then you do have the risk of

545
00:31:12,543 --> 00:31:14,923
not actually getting paid out. True, true. I know.

546
00:31:14,923 --> 00:31:16,863
But it's a good idea.

547
00:31:16,983 --> 00:31:18,623
It's a solution. Yeah, no, it's a solution.

548
00:31:18,763 --> 00:31:20,583
But yeah, you're right. It would have to be

549
00:31:20,583 --> 00:31:24,543
designed the right way for investor protection, basically.

550
00:31:24,723 --> 00:31:26,843
But it would probably be the most oversubscribed bond

551
00:31:26,843 --> 00:31:28,723
the US government has issued in a very long time.

552
00:31:28,923 --> 00:31:29,663
I would guess so.

553
00:31:30,443 --> 00:31:33,443
Every Bitcoin product seems to be the most popular thing

554
00:31:33,443 --> 00:31:35,603
whenever it happens, like the ETFs.

555
00:31:36,243 --> 00:31:39,343
It's like Bitcoin, Bitcoin's very popular, very popular.

556
00:31:39,723 --> 00:31:41,463
If you're already self-custody of Bitcoin,

557
00:31:41,723 --> 00:31:43,223
you know the deal with hardware wallets.

558
00:31:43,463 --> 00:31:45,303
Complex setups, clumsy interfaces,

559
00:31:45,643 --> 00:31:48,183
and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten.

560
00:31:48,803 --> 00:31:49,943
Well, BitKey fixes that.

561
00:31:49,943 --> 00:31:54,303
bitkey is a multi-sig hardware wallet built by the team behind square and cash app

562
00:31:54,303 --> 00:31:59,043
it packs a cryptographic recovery system and built-in inheritance feature into an intuitive

563
00:31:59,043 --> 00:32:05,583
easy to use wallet with no c phrase to sweat over it's simple secure self-custody without the stress

564
00:32:05,583 --> 00:32:12,623
and time named bitkey one of the best inventions of 2024 get 20 off at bitkey.world when you use

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more, which is I-R-E-N.com. We should talk about the treasury company. We've got limited time today

582
00:33:41,843 --> 00:33:46,603
and yeah, let's do it. You were one of the influencers that moved across to a treasury

583
00:33:46,603 --> 00:33:52,383
company. I've been skeptical. I've told you this before. So I want you to explain what you're doing.

584
00:33:52,783 --> 00:33:59,243
And my big question, like, so you're with Orange set up in Brazil. There's a lot of talk about

585
00:33:59,243 --> 00:34:03,103
like jurisdictional arbitrage with treasury companies and the fact that like MetaPlanet's

586
00:34:03,103 --> 00:34:06,463
in Japan, there's like different tax rules there. So there's an incentive to a meta planet if you're

587
00:34:06,463 --> 00:34:13,323
in Japan. I've always been skeptical of that apart from like the very edge cases only because like

588
00:34:13,323 --> 00:34:19,263
I live in Australia, I'm from the UK. And if I wanted to buy a treasury company, there's nothing

589
00:34:19,263 --> 00:34:23,783
stopping me buying strategy. So like, why does that jurisdictional arbitrage exist in your opinion?

590
00:34:24,663 --> 00:34:30,963
Well, it is like, it might be easier for somebody in Australia versus Brazil to access the US equity

591
00:34:30,963 --> 00:34:38,203
markets, first off. And then, you know, retail investors, they do like to be supportive of their

592
00:34:38,203 --> 00:34:43,283
own country, like a company that's building in their own country. So there's a bit of like a

593
00:34:43,283 --> 00:34:49,003
nationality, a pride there. But there's also like institutional investors there. They have buckets

594
00:34:49,003 --> 00:34:54,583
of like, they can only invest a certain amount into like foreign assets. A majority, they have

595
00:34:54,583 --> 00:35:00,183
to invest domestically. So like the state pension funds, for instance. And so it's just a matter of

596
00:35:00,183 --> 00:35:06,623
they can't just only invest in strategy or US equities. They have to allocate a significant

597
00:35:06,623 --> 00:35:13,683
amount of capital into their own country. And so even that could be like if Orange BTC gets included

598
00:35:13,683 --> 00:35:20,903
in the indices or different things in the Brazilian stock market, we'll benefit just from those flows.

599
00:35:20,903 --> 00:35:28,223
So yes, they could access some US treasuries around the globe, but still there'll be a

600
00:35:28,223 --> 00:35:39,566
significant amount of capital that has to be invested locally And that where we orange BTC would benefit Okay and so you got a little over 3 Bitcoin so far 3 Which is a lot of Bitcoin

601
00:35:41,226 --> 00:35:45,126
How do you see this playing out in terms of the strategy?

602
00:35:45,386 --> 00:35:46,926
They're almost in a different league to everyone else.

603
00:35:47,006 --> 00:35:48,046
They've got so much Bitcoin.

604
00:35:48,646 --> 00:35:49,966
The smaller treasury companies,

605
00:35:49,966 --> 00:35:53,186
do you think they have any shot of catching strategy?

606
00:35:53,426 --> 00:35:57,806
Or is it now everyone's playing for the second tier of treasury company?

607
00:35:57,806 --> 00:36:03,286
Well, I think there's going to be a winner in every major capital market.

608
00:36:04,006 --> 00:36:09,646
And even if you look at Brazil, a lot of the biggest banks are Brazilian banks.

609
00:36:10,766 --> 00:36:16,166
It's hard to break into that market and build a big business there.

610
00:36:16,386 --> 00:36:23,866
It kind of takes a local player who understands the regulations and has the connections to build a big business there.

611
00:36:23,866 --> 00:36:27,466
And so strategy, I mean, strategy is in a league of its own.

612
00:36:27,466 --> 00:36:33,906
I mean, they have more Bitcoin than all the other companies combined, all of the public companies combined.

613
00:36:34,266 --> 00:36:34,706
Probably times two.

614
00:36:35,046 --> 00:36:35,206
Yeah.

615
00:36:35,606 --> 00:36:41,466
But 3,720 Bitcoin, we're the largest in Latin America by far.

616
00:36:41,746 --> 00:36:42,006
By far.

617
00:36:42,926 --> 00:36:56,366
And when you look at Latin America and compare it to the United States, in terms of getting Bitcoin exposure through publicly listed vehicles, there's really only three options in all Latin America.

618
00:36:56,366 --> 00:37:14,606
It's orange BTC, there's an ETF, and there's Mayluse, which is the smaller Bitcoin treasury on B3. And that's it. In the United States, there's like 11 ETFs, there's all the public miners, there's Coinbase, there's all these infrastructure plays.

619
00:37:14,606 --> 00:37:35,966
There's a lot of ways to get exposure, but not in Latin America. It's very underserved. And so that leads to a lot of demand for any kind of Bitcoin-backed security, whether that's equity, whether that's fixed income products down the road or anything like that. It fits into these institutions' investment mandates.

620
00:37:35,966 --> 00:37:40,106
And so each capital market's really interesting because it has its different quirks.

621
00:37:41,046 --> 00:37:46,506
Like Brazil, the pension funds and the insurance companies are restricted from owning spot Bitcoin.

622
00:37:46,726 --> 00:37:47,606
They cannot do it.

623
00:37:48,266 --> 00:37:51,066
And they only have investment mandates for securities.

624
00:37:51,706 --> 00:37:56,486
So if they want any kind of Bitcoin exposure, they have to go to something like Orange BTC.

625
00:37:58,246 --> 00:38:00,746
And so even Saylor talks about this.

626
00:38:00,746 --> 00:38:07,886
97% of institutional capital, almost $100 trillion, have investment mandates for equity and bonds.

627
00:38:08,106 --> 00:38:08,266
Yeah.

628
00:38:08,366 --> 00:38:14,186
Right? And that's trapped capital. It's completely trapped. And, you know, in my opinion,

629
00:38:14,186 --> 00:38:19,926
every single portfolio is better with Bitcoin in it, whether it's real Bitcoin or whether that's

630
00:38:19,926 --> 00:38:25,646
Bitcoin exposure to these securities. No Bitcoin is a lot worse.

631
00:38:26,826 --> 00:38:27,586
I agree with that.

632
00:38:27,586 --> 00:38:32,466
Yeah. So like if we can improve accessibility and allow them to get exposure to it,

633
00:38:32,866 --> 00:38:36,786
that benefits the pensioners, that benefits those insurance companies.

634
00:38:37,506 --> 00:38:39,786
We're just trying to improve access there.

635
00:38:39,986 --> 00:38:42,886
And so that's just a unique work of Brazil.

636
00:38:43,886 --> 00:38:49,266
And then there's other things like it's a little bit more, there's some tax advantages.

637
00:38:50,206 --> 00:38:52,226
There's a similar dynamic in MetaPlanet.

638
00:38:52,706 --> 00:38:57,206
In Brazil, spot bitcoins tax, the capital gains is progressive.

639
00:38:57,586 --> 00:39:00,346
The highest bracket's like 22.5%.

640
00:39:00,346 --> 00:39:03,146
Domestic equities are flat at 15.

641
00:39:03,326 --> 00:39:05,126
So there's a little bit of a tax advantage

642
00:39:05,126 --> 00:39:07,086
from going to a domestic equity.

643
00:39:07,886 --> 00:39:11,126
And so these little quirks are just more structural tailwinds

644
00:39:11,686 --> 00:39:15,766
for a Bitcoin-backed security that we ultimately benefit from.

645
00:39:16,626 --> 00:39:18,386
And so, you know, strategy,

646
00:39:19,126 --> 00:39:22,406
you know, they did Stream, which is out in Europe now,

647
00:39:22,406 --> 00:39:24,966
and they announced plans to expand to Canada.

648
00:39:24,966 --> 00:39:28,726
and they likely will go to other capital markets.

649
00:39:28,726 --> 00:39:31,406
But Brazil's probably pretty far down the list

650
00:39:31,406 --> 00:39:34,586
because it's a little bit more complex

651
00:39:34,586 --> 00:39:37,526
from a regulatory standpoint, being able to navigate that.

652
00:39:37,706 --> 00:39:40,166
So it really does take a local player.

653
00:39:40,966 --> 00:39:44,626
And our team's full of born and bred Brazilians

654
00:39:44,626 --> 00:39:47,626
who have significant experience.

655
00:39:47,926 --> 00:39:50,326
Our CFO ran a public company.

656
00:39:50,506 --> 00:39:52,746
He was a C-suite executive of a public company there

657
00:39:52,746 --> 00:39:54,706
for over a decade.

658
00:39:54,966 --> 00:40:02,386
Our chairman ran BD for Bridgewater in Latin America.

659
00:40:02,986 --> 00:40:06,466
And BlackRock, he stood up the alternative assets business.

660
00:40:06,666 --> 00:40:08,606
He has a significant experience in Latin America.

661
00:40:09,366 --> 00:40:18,226
Our CEO, Guy Gomez, grew up in Brazil, has a lot of contacts there, and has significant Bitcoin experience.

662
00:40:18,226 --> 00:40:22,526
And so I think it's the right team to actually execute this.

663
00:40:22,526 --> 00:40:24,566
and it's going to be different.

664
00:40:24,826 --> 00:40:28,246
There's bigger, low-hanging fruit, let's say,

665
00:40:28,306 --> 00:40:31,506
for strategy to attack other capital markets

666
00:40:31,506 --> 00:40:33,806
and expand into other capital markets

667
00:40:33,806 --> 00:40:37,226
before they think about coming down to Brazil.

668
00:40:37,546 --> 00:40:41,066
And so that, again, is a significant opportunity for us

669
00:40:41,066 --> 00:40:43,426
because Latin America is a huge market

670
00:40:43,426 --> 00:40:45,546
and they really need Bitcoin.

671
00:40:46,046 --> 00:40:47,746
And so that's where we're going to step in.

672
00:40:47,746 --> 00:40:52,306
And it's all accretive to Bitcoin when it comes down to it.

673
00:40:52,526 --> 00:40:58,786
So when you look at like the type of investors that are investing in Orange, is it retail or is it the institutional type clients?

674
00:41:00,046 --> 00:41:02,126
Well, we just listed like eight weeks ago.

675
00:41:02,486 --> 00:41:02,706
Okay.

676
00:41:02,706 --> 00:41:06,506
And so we're talking with all those institutional investors.

677
00:41:06,926 --> 00:41:09,486
Their investment process is longer.

678
00:41:09,846 --> 00:41:11,786
It takes them a long time to actually pull the trigger.

679
00:41:12,066 --> 00:41:13,666
And there's a lot of education that needs to be done.

680
00:41:13,666 --> 00:41:24,286
And so our focus right now is educating the market about not just who Orange BTC is and what a Bitcoin treasury model is, but also what Bitcoin is.

681
00:41:24,866 --> 00:41:34,646
And so we did the first institutional focus Bitcoin event in Brazil's history about a month ago.

682
00:41:35,146 --> 00:41:35,566
So we had this.

683
00:41:35,686 --> 00:41:36,766
How many people did you get?

684
00:41:37,186 --> 00:41:39,366
It was about 300 to 400 people.

685
00:41:39,366 --> 00:42:06,426
But really, the representation from the largest banks, largest asset managers and family offices, we were very, very happy with the turnout. And there's a lot of excitement from them. And I think they realized that Bitcoin's not going away. And they realized that they're maybe behind some of the United States, and they need to start moving into this asset class. And so the excitement from those big players in the market was really good to see.

686
00:42:06,426 --> 00:42:20,206
And so we're having those conversations. We're educating those institutional investors. I think a lot of demand has been retail from the start, but we expect the institutional investors to come in over time because everyone needs Bitcoin.

687
00:42:21,046 --> 00:42:23,866
And so what are you trading at compared to MNAV right now?

688
00:42:24,426 --> 00:42:33,606
We're like right around one. I don't have to look, but it's been fluctuating from a little bit under one to a little bit over one. So we're pretty much like at MNAV right now.

689
00:42:33,606 --> 00:42:41,246
Okay. And so do you think there's always going to be a gravity to one? Or do you think these multiples are going to expand again, like when Bitcoin price starts doing better?

690
00:42:42,086 --> 00:42:52,766
Yeah, the way I think about it is, you know, all these debts, so to speak, all these Bitcoin treasury companies, they got to like earn the premium.

691
00:42:52,766 --> 00:43:17,486
It comes down to execution. And there's different ways. Taking on leverage, large corporations with really strong balance sheets can get better terms on debt. And if you take on the debt and has good terms, and then you buy the Bitcoin and the Bitcoin outperforms the currency that it's denominated in, that's a creative share that'll increase Bitcoin per share.

692
00:43:17,486 --> 00:43:35,466
And so if you bet on the growth of Bitcoin per share, that should have some kind of premium. Because if ETFs just flat at one and it's just a passive vehicle, and we're doing treasury operations and taking on good leverage to increase Bitcoin per share, that deserves some kind of premium.

693
00:43:35,466 --> 00:43:42,826
them. The other thing is you can say buy Bitcoin at a discount. So for instance, when the MNAP

694
00:43:42,826 --> 00:43:48,506
dropped below one, we have share repurchase programs. And so we buy back our shares that

695
00:43:48,506 --> 00:43:53,546
is actually like buying Bitcoin at a discount and that it increases Bitcoin per share as well.

696
00:43:53,946 --> 00:43:58,306
And so if you can acquire the Bitcoin at a discount, if you could take on leverage

697
00:43:58,306 --> 00:44:04,606
that increases Bitcoin per share, both of those reasons are probably why Bitcoin or Bitcoin

698
00:44:04,606 --> 00:44:10,706
treasury companies should trade at a premium to MNAV. Now, how do you sustain that? And that comes

699
00:44:10,706 --> 00:44:16,326
down to execution. The other thing you could do is derivative strategies, for instance. That's

700
00:44:16,326 --> 00:44:21,186
another example of something that an ETF doesn't do that could lead to more Bitcoin per share.

701
00:44:21,906 --> 00:44:27,386
And we have very talented traders that have been trading for 20, 25 years, trading vols,

702
00:44:27,386 --> 00:44:34,186
trading derivatives, to help us not only lower our cost basis and acquire the Bitcoin in a way

703
00:44:34,186 --> 00:44:35,506
that it's more efficient,

704
00:44:36,106 --> 00:44:40,346
but also generates some premium

705
00:44:40,346 --> 00:44:43,026
and so allow us to acquire even more Bitcoin.

706
00:44:43,626 --> 00:44:45,826
And so all those three things even right there,

707
00:44:46,206 --> 00:44:47,946
probably reason why we should trade at a premium.

708
00:44:48,126 --> 00:44:48,926
And then there's another one,

709
00:44:48,986 --> 00:44:51,886
it's just this optionality of having a large Bitcoin.

710
00:44:52,106 --> 00:44:53,546
So there's all kinds of things

711
00:44:53,546 --> 00:44:54,606
that we could do in the future.

712
00:44:55,086 --> 00:44:56,546
And one of the things that's been surprising,

713
00:44:56,546 --> 00:44:58,586
even after eight weeks of being live,

714
00:44:58,706 --> 00:45:03,026
is how many Bitcoin companies in Brazil

715
00:45:03,026 --> 00:45:06,826
have reached out to us about potential strategic partnerships,

716
00:45:07,086 --> 00:45:11,006
as well as companies abroad who are looking to expand into Brazil,

717
00:45:11,246 --> 00:45:13,626
who want to partner with somebody who's there,

718
00:45:13,926 --> 00:45:17,266
who, again, understands the market, understands the regulators,

719
00:45:17,786 --> 00:45:21,406
has relationships already to find out strategic partnerships

720
00:45:21,406 --> 00:45:24,446
to maybe launch some kind of Bitcoin financial services

721
00:45:24,446 --> 00:45:26,066
or products in the future.

722
00:45:26,406 --> 00:45:29,186
Now, it's early in our story, so we're listening,

723
00:45:29,346 --> 00:45:30,286
we're building relationships,

724
00:45:30,786 --> 00:45:32,606
but there's so many opportunities

725
00:45:32,606 --> 00:45:35,686
to build out products and business lines.

726
00:45:35,686 --> 00:45:37,666
So that optionality of the future,

727
00:45:37,986 --> 00:45:39,926
it's just like you have to maybe,

728
00:45:40,186 --> 00:45:41,446
if you're positive on that,

729
00:45:41,526 --> 00:45:45,566
that should also create like a premium to the MNAF.

730
00:45:46,046 --> 00:45:48,146
And then it comes down to execution, right?

731
00:45:48,246 --> 00:45:51,626
And so that's another reason why there's risk

732
00:45:51,626 --> 00:45:53,986
with these treasury companies as well,

733
00:45:54,066 --> 00:45:56,146
which is why they should maybe trade at a discount sometimes

734
00:45:56,146 --> 00:45:59,886
because if the management team doesn't manage risk well

735
00:45:59,886 --> 00:46:03,266
and doesn't maybe takes on bad leverage,

736
00:46:03,846 --> 00:46:05,326
they should be penalized for that

737
00:46:05,326 --> 00:46:07,906
and maybe trade at a discount.

738
00:46:08,566 --> 00:46:10,166
And so it works both ways.

739
00:46:10,446 --> 00:46:12,466
And so there's risks where it can trade at a discount,

740
00:46:12,786 --> 00:46:13,726
but if they execute

741
00:46:13,726 --> 00:46:15,806
and they accumulate more Bitcoin per share

742
00:46:15,806 --> 00:46:17,986
in a way that's faster than any kind of individual

743
00:46:17,986 --> 00:46:20,026
and that's accretive to the shareholders,

744
00:46:20,366 --> 00:46:21,726
then they should probably trade at a premium.

745
00:46:21,726 --> 00:46:24,186
And so even strategy right now,

746
00:46:25,246 --> 00:46:26,926
they're tapping the ATM,

747
00:46:27,086 --> 00:46:27,726
they're doing all these things,

748
00:46:27,846 --> 00:46:29,746
but their MNav is not going down to one.

749
00:46:29,746 --> 00:46:33,126
It's at like 1.15, 1.17.

750
00:46:34,006 --> 00:46:36,426
Now where that MNav is like going to stay

751
00:46:36,426 --> 00:46:37,526
and that range,

752
00:46:37,646 --> 00:46:39,926
are we going to see like 3, 4, 5, 7?

753
00:46:40,366 --> 00:46:41,686
Like, I'm not sure.

754
00:46:41,806 --> 00:46:45,066
Like it was definitely like a speculative mania

755
00:46:45,066 --> 00:46:46,506
a little bit in the earlier of the summer

756
00:46:46,506 --> 00:46:49,706
where you saw these crazy MNav expansions and premiums.

757
00:46:49,766 --> 00:46:51,646
I don't know if we'll see it get way up there.

758
00:46:51,746 --> 00:46:54,546
Like maybe if we see this like another wave like that.

759
00:46:55,866 --> 00:46:58,646
But it probably should be above one

760
00:46:58,646 --> 00:47:01,126
if the team's executing well and accumulating Bitcoin

761
00:47:01,126 --> 00:47:05,806
with their treasury operations or other business lines.

762
00:47:06,046 --> 00:47:08,106
I think we're just starting to see

763
00:47:08,106 --> 00:47:11,886
where this treasury market's going to go.

764
00:47:12,106 --> 00:47:15,386
So you saw like Fong Li, the CEO of Strategy,

765
00:47:15,586 --> 00:47:18,886
just talking on television last week,

766
00:47:18,966 --> 00:47:22,286
talking about large counterparties and banks

767
00:47:22,286 --> 00:47:25,666
and how they might consider partnering with them,

768
00:47:25,666 --> 00:47:28,086
whether like lending Bitcoin out to these counterparties

769
00:47:28,086 --> 00:47:30,246
who are building out their own services

770
00:47:30,246 --> 00:47:31,806
and they just need Bitcoin collateral.

771
00:47:32,506 --> 00:47:33,046
And so it's like,

772
00:47:33,126 --> 00:47:34,906
he who holds the Bitcoin makes the rules.

773
00:47:35,086 --> 00:47:35,926
It's like Max Keiser.

774
00:47:36,246 --> 00:47:36,486
Yeah.

775
00:47:36,806 --> 00:47:37,706
It's the same thing.

776
00:47:38,186 --> 00:47:39,746
And so these are all opportunities

777
00:47:39,746 --> 00:47:41,686
that these treasury companies have

778
00:47:41,686 --> 00:47:43,046
just because they have large,

779
00:47:43,646 --> 00:47:45,486
like a lot of Bitcoin.

780
00:47:45,686 --> 00:47:47,106
That's what it comes down to.

781
00:47:47,226 --> 00:47:47,326
Yeah.

782
00:47:47,526 --> 00:47:47,886
It's funny.

783
00:47:48,086 --> 00:47:49,446
I was, Fong was on the show a couple,

784
00:47:49,746 --> 00:47:50,606
like a month or two ago.

785
00:47:50,846 --> 00:47:51,066
Nice.

786
00:47:51,226 --> 00:47:53,266
And we were talking a little bit about,

787
00:47:53,546 --> 00:47:55,206
like strategy obviously went through a really hard time.

788
00:47:55,306 --> 00:47:57,426
They went, they started trading at a big discount.

789
00:47:57,426 --> 00:47:59,386
three or four years ago.

790
00:48:00,206 --> 00:48:02,406
And I wonder if it's almost like

791
00:48:02,406 --> 00:48:03,486
the market is waiting to see

792
00:48:03,486 --> 00:48:04,466
if people survive

793
00:48:04,466 --> 00:48:06,806
a bear market in treasury companies

794
00:48:06,806 --> 00:48:08,906
before they get full confidence

795
00:48:08,906 --> 00:48:09,646
to invest in them.

796
00:48:10,086 --> 00:48:11,346
And paper Bitcoin summer

797
00:48:11,346 --> 00:48:12,206
is definitely over.

798
00:48:12,586 --> 00:48:14,086
We're deep in paper Bitcoin winter.

799
00:48:14,546 --> 00:48:16,246
A lot of these newer treasury companies

800
00:48:16,246 --> 00:48:18,466
are trading at a very steep discount.

801
00:48:19,326 --> 00:48:20,686
Do you think it's kind of

802
00:48:20,686 --> 00:48:21,846
amount of time that people

803
00:48:21,846 --> 00:48:22,586
are trading in the market

804
00:48:22,586 --> 00:48:24,286
before the confidence is there

805
00:48:24,286 --> 00:48:25,626
that these teams are going to survive?

806
00:48:25,766 --> 00:48:26,506
They know how to do it.

807
00:48:26,546 --> 00:48:27,366
They know how to operate.

808
00:48:27,426 --> 00:48:30,866
and then we see like growth in multiples again.

809
00:48:31,526 --> 00:48:33,846
Yeah, I think when market conditions turn

810
00:48:33,846 --> 00:48:36,226
like how they have like in the last month,

811
00:48:36,286 --> 00:48:39,506
it's actually an opportunity for a treasury company

812
00:48:39,506 --> 00:48:40,986
and the management team to prove

813
00:48:40,986 --> 00:48:43,906
that they've been thoughtful about their capital structure,

814
00:48:44,126 --> 00:48:45,666
about the type of debt they take in,

815
00:48:45,786 --> 00:48:47,686
about their ability to weather the storms.

816
00:48:48,126 --> 00:48:49,786
That's one thing that strategy has

817
00:48:49,786 --> 00:48:51,706
and maybe MetaPlanet that others don't

818
00:48:51,706 --> 00:48:53,066
is like more of a track record.

819
00:48:53,766 --> 00:48:55,986
And that just takes time to prove out,

820
00:48:55,986 --> 00:48:59,406
to prove to the market and to shareholders

821
00:48:59,406 --> 00:49:01,886
that you are a team that executes

822
00:49:01,886 --> 00:49:04,126
and manages risk appropriately.

823
00:49:04,786 --> 00:49:06,826
And so I think each treasury company

824
00:49:06,826 --> 00:49:09,466
should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis,

825
00:49:09,466 --> 00:49:11,166
and you really got to dig into the weeds

826
00:49:11,166 --> 00:49:12,786
of their cap structure,

827
00:49:12,986 --> 00:49:14,166
what kind of debt they've had,

828
00:49:14,286 --> 00:49:15,906
what is their plans, what is their vision,

829
00:49:16,186 --> 00:49:18,786
what is their access to the capital markets.

830
00:49:19,506 --> 00:49:22,786
And each one should be just analyzed on its own terms.

831
00:49:22,786 --> 00:49:29,866
And it's a way for the best ones to kind of separate themselves from the pack.

832
00:49:29,866 --> 00:49:31,946
And so I actually see it as an opportunity.

833
00:49:31,946 --> 00:49:37,306
You know, even right now, as Bitcoin has gone down a downturn, like Orange BTC has actually

834
00:49:37,306 --> 00:49:40,026
continued to buy almost on a weekly basis.

835
00:49:40,026 --> 00:49:44,106
And so we're proud of that because even during times of market stress, we're still accumulating

836
00:49:44,106 --> 00:49:46,306
Bitcoin for our shareholders.

837
00:49:46,306 --> 00:49:51,506
And, you know, we've been very thoughtful about how we structured the company and about the

838
00:49:51,506 --> 00:49:52,506
type of leverage.

839
00:49:52,506 --> 00:49:59,366
very clean balance sheet, low leverage ratio right now. And so we were built to last. This is a very

840
00:49:59,366 --> 00:50:05,826
long-term gain. And so we have conviction in Bitcoin. We know that it's not going away. We

841
00:50:05,826 --> 00:50:13,206
have a very strong balance sheet full of the best reserve asset. And so again, I think bear markets

842
00:50:13,206 --> 00:50:18,506
and cycles, it's an opportunity for the best treasury companies to really show that we're

843
00:50:18,506 --> 00:50:23,026
resilient and we're here to stay. How do you think about buying Bitcoin now? Because it feels like

844
00:50:23,026 --> 00:50:27,326
the business model from the very early strategy days have changed a little bit. Like it's not

845
00:50:27,326 --> 00:50:32,606
necessarily just selling common stock to buy Bitcoin now. Like strategy have all the preferreds.

846
00:50:33,026 --> 00:50:40,686
What do you see the future of this being? Well, it's kind of like what I talked about before. I

847
00:50:40,686 --> 00:50:44,726
I mean, so strategies farther along in that whole process.

848
00:50:45,726 --> 00:50:50,046
But finding ways to get leverage that is,

849
00:50:51,386 --> 00:50:53,746
that's in a way that's accretive to shareholders,

850
00:50:54,126 --> 00:50:58,606
but also is a line where it's a long duration liability

851
00:50:58,606 --> 00:51:00,046
with a long duration asset.

852
00:51:00,606 --> 00:51:02,066
Like the preferreds are so interesting

853
00:51:02,066 --> 00:51:04,926
because you never have to actually repay back the principal.

854
00:51:05,266 --> 00:51:08,026
And it's just more of a dividend obligation over time.

855
00:51:08,126 --> 00:51:09,646
So then you're just kind of managing that.

856
00:51:09,646 --> 00:51:14,206
It's like that cash obligation over time.

857
00:51:15,506 --> 00:51:19,106
But it's interesting because they're still accumulating Bitcoin.

858
00:51:19,846 --> 00:51:21,206
They're just doing it through different products.

859
00:51:21,566 --> 00:51:23,886
I liked what Jeff Walton said one time.

860
00:51:24,046 --> 00:51:27,626
It's like when you're fishing and you're looking for different fish

861
00:51:27,626 --> 00:51:30,126
and it's with different bait and at different depths

862
00:51:30,126 --> 00:51:33,326
and it requires a little bit different strategy.

863
00:51:34,306 --> 00:51:36,546
What Sailor's doing is just creating these products

864
00:51:36,546 --> 00:51:40,226
that are attractive to different cohorts or investors.

865
00:51:40,926 --> 00:51:42,446
And so some like the fixed income,

866
00:51:42,586 --> 00:51:43,606
some are going to like the converts,

867
00:51:43,986 --> 00:51:45,926
some are going to like just the common equity

868
00:51:45,926 --> 00:51:48,246
because it's more volatile than the Bitcoin itself.

869
00:51:48,966 --> 00:51:52,486
And so it's all meant to just accumulate more Bitcoin

870
00:51:52,486 --> 00:51:53,406
onto the balance sheet,

871
00:51:53,486 --> 00:51:56,426
but he's just providing different financial products

872
00:51:56,426 --> 00:51:57,626
that are Bitcoin backed

873
00:51:57,626 --> 00:52:00,626
that are attracted to different types of investors.

874
00:52:01,226 --> 00:52:05,166
And so that's where we see ourselves going eventually.

875
00:52:05,166 --> 00:52:13,306
But then, like I said, there's also all this other opportunities to build out different Bitcoin financial services in that market.

876
00:52:13,426 --> 00:52:18,546
So Brazil, it's just, it's wide open in terms of all types of businesses.

877
00:52:18,826 --> 00:52:21,106
I mean, and we're considering all of them.

878
00:52:21,586 --> 00:52:25,606
You know, we have a history of building Bitcoin financial services.

879
00:52:25,866 --> 00:52:26,926
We have experience in there.

880
00:52:27,086 --> 00:52:30,826
And then our team has a lot of capital markets experience on this other side.

881
00:52:30,826 --> 00:52:37,786
So it's a mix of the treasury operations, education, educating the market about Bitcoin,

882
00:52:37,786 --> 00:52:42,586
as well as considering strategic partnerships with local players, as well as internationally,

883
00:52:42,586 --> 00:52:48,746
and considering different lines of business down the road. So we see us being an entire Bitcoin hub

884
00:52:48,746 --> 00:52:55,386
and just a leader in that entire region. So 3,700 Bitcoin is a lot of Bitcoin.

885
00:52:56,266 --> 00:52:59,466
There's a lot of treasury companies that cropped up over the last however many

886
00:52:59,466 --> 00:53:01,626
months that are a lot smaller than you guys.

887
00:53:01,966 --> 00:53:03,966
And a lot of those are now trading at a discount.

888
00:53:04,886 --> 00:53:07,266
Do you think the like your young company,

889
00:53:07,266 --> 00:53:08,806
so I'm sure you're not thinking about this right now,

890
00:53:08,806 --> 00:53:10,766
but do you think we're going to see a lot of acquisitions,

891
00:53:10,766 --> 00:53:13,266
a lot of them consolidation in these treasury companies?

892
00:53:13,266 --> 00:53:15,466
I know obviously similar going through this at the moment.

893
00:53:15,466 --> 00:53:28,729
Like do you think that going to be a growing trend Because essentially if you trying to buy cheap Bitcoin you can buy Bitcoin at a discount by doing that Yeah No I think that going to be a natural maturation of this part of this ecosystem

894
00:53:29,948 --> 00:53:30,948
It just makes sense.

895
00:53:31,128 --> 00:53:33,309
I mean, if you can buy discounted Bitcoin,

896
00:53:33,789 --> 00:53:34,648
then it's there.

897
00:53:35,669 --> 00:53:37,068
It's just a decision, right?

898
00:53:37,189 --> 00:53:38,928
Because when you buy Bitcoin,

899
00:53:39,029 --> 00:53:40,189
one of the cool things about it

900
00:53:40,189 --> 00:53:42,428
is the return on investment is so short,

901
00:53:42,428 --> 00:53:44,008
meaning you know exactly,

902
00:53:44,769 --> 00:53:45,809
you raise the money,

903
00:53:45,809 --> 00:53:49,809
you turn around you bought bitcoin you know if it was like a creative to shareholders almost

904
00:53:49,809 --> 00:53:56,289
immediately if you do a a acquisition it's a little bit harder for the market to kind of digest

905
00:53:56,289 --> 00:54:01,328
it and understand it like is the transaction going to go through is it a creative they got

906
00:54:01,328 --> 00:54:05,328
to do some math and so it's just a little bit more complicated for the market to understand like

907
00:54:05,328 --> 00:54:10,209
was this uh a creative like because the bitcoin is the hurdle right so you gotta always think well

908
00:54:10,209 --> 00:54:15,568
they could have just turned around about bitcoin so is this even better is this is this a discount

909
00:54:15,568 --> 00:54:20,529
of Bitcoin given where our shares are trading versus their shares if this is like an all equity

910
00:54:20,529 --> 00:54:25,888
transaction. So it just takes a little bit more thought for the market to understand it.

911
00:54:27,328 --> 00:54:32,608
And it takes time to understand if that was a quality move or not. It moves it from

912
00:54:34,368 --> 00:54:38,448
basically minutes, because the return on investment to just buy Bitcoin is like minutes,

913
00:54:38,448 --> 00:54:43,008
to maybe months, even to years to understand if the acquisition was a good decision.

914
00:54:43,008 --> 00:54:45,908
And so all of those options are available.

915
00:54:46,128 --> 00:54:47,769
And I think if you see these companies

916
00:54:47,769 --> 00:54:49,529
really trade at distress levels,

917
00:54:49,529 --> 00:54:52,128
then you will see more M&A activity.

918
00:54:52,809 --> 00:54:55,309
But it is a decision every single time

919
00:54:55,309 --> 00:54:56,928
you raise capital and don't buy Bitcoin,

920
00:54:57,108 --> 00:54:58,309
that's a decision you make.

921
00:54:58,529 --> 00:55:00,568
And so you got to be right with your due diligence

922
00:55:00,568 --> 00:55:02,309
and your analysts to make sure

923
00:55:02,309 --> 00:55:04,169
that that is the right decision.

924
00:55:04,749 --> 00:55:06,488
Because one of the things that makes me think of

925
00:55:06,488 --> 00:55:07,529
is if you're a strategy

926
00:55:07,529 --> 00:55:10,029
and you're looking at like all these other places

927
00:55:10,029 --> 00:55:11,488
that might have a good incentive

928
00:55:11,488 --> 00:55:12,488
to have a treasury company

929
00:55:12,488 --> 00:55:13,229
in that country.

930
00:55:14,049 --> 00:55:15,408
The idea of going through,

931
00:55:15,689 --> 00:55:16,648
building a business out there,

932
00:55:16,749 --> 00:55:17,508
putting a team in

933
00:55:17,508 --> 00:55:18,809
seems much harder than just

934
00:55:18,809 --> 00:55:19,729
waiting for something to trade

935
00:55:19,729 --> 00:55:20,648
under 1XM NAV

936
00:55:20,648 --> 00:55:21,549
and trying to acquire it

937
00:55:21,549 --> 00:55:22,508
and then have something

938
00:55:22,508 --> 00:55:23,269
in that jurisdiction.

939
00:55:23,789 --> 00:55:24,789
Like if strategy

940
00:55:24,789 --> 00:55:26,229
is a huge fish in this pond,

941
00:55:26,749 --> 00:55:27,769
like do you think they end up

942
00:55:27,769 --> 00:55:29,269
eating all the little fish

943
00:55:29,269 --> 00:55:29,968
in different markets

944
00:55:29,968 --> 00:55:31,368
and being a behemoth?

945
00:55:32,648 --> 00:55:34,648
Well, it's probably

946
00:55:34,648 --> 00:55:37,908
a better question for Fong or Sailor.

947
00:55:38,008 --> 00:55:38,828
I know they've said that

948
00:55:38,828 --> 00:55:41,128
they aren't interested in doing that

949
00:55:41,128 --> 00:55:42,428
and it's probably related

950
00:55:42,428 --> 00:55:43,328
to what I just said.

951
00:55:44,049 --> 00:55:45,988
It's just harder for the market to understand

952
00:55:45,988 --> 00:55:48,588
if it's an actual right decision or not.

953
00:55:49,588 --> 00:55:51,068
But maybe, maybe.

954
00:55:51,289 --> 00:55:52,249
I mean, for me,

955
00:55:52,388 --> 00:55:56,588
if you're able to build a great brand

956
00:55:56,588 --> 00:55:58,529
and have a great track record,

957
00:55:58,968 --> 00:56:01,008
you get a lot of Bitcoin on your balance sheet.

958
00:56:02,368 --> 00:56:02,968
You're right.

959
00:56:03,108 --> 00:56:04,588
I mean, if strategy is looking into a market

960
00:56:04,588 --> 00:56:05,868
and they don't know,

961
00:56:06,068 --> 00:56:07,408
like I said, they don't know the players,

962
00:56:07,468 --> 00:56:08,128
they don't have the network,

963
00:56:08,368 --> 00:56:10,368
they don't have a relationship with the regulators

964
00:56:10,368 --> 00:56:11,488
or the local banks,

965
00:56:11,488 --> 00:56:14,468
it could be an easier decision for them to do it,

966
00:56:14,549 --> 00:56:16,189
especially if they trust the management team.

967
00:56:16,789 --> 00:56:17,928
You know, that's what it comes down to.

968
00:56:18,049 --> 00:56:21,088
If they feel like acquiring that company is better

969
00:56:21,088 --> 00:56:22,809
than them going in and building it themselves,

970
00:56:23,148 --> 00:56:24,789
then maybe that's a decision they'll make.

971
00:56:24,948 --> 00:56:26,568
So I wouldn't really be surprised.

972
00:56:27,008 --> 00:56:28,408
I mean, maybe it's not even just strategy.

973
00:56:28,568 --> 00:56:31,789
I mean, now you have 21 coming on board, right?

974
00:56:31,789 --> 00:56:35,669
You're going to have ProCap Financial coming on board now.

975
00:56:35,769 --> 00:56:36,868
They're finally going live.

976
00:56:37,388 --> 00:56:39,388
And so you have these transactions finally closing.

977
00:56:39,388 --> 00:56:42,848
We're about to get a couple of major players in this market too.

978
00:56:43,249 --> 00:56:45,309
And then there's the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company.

979
00:56:46,269 --> 00:56:47,588
That's Adam Backs one.

980
00:56:47,648 --> 00:56:48,368
That's Adam Backs one.

981
00:56:48,928 --> 00:56:53,029
And I bring those ones up because they also have a lot of Bitcoin.

982
00:56:53,729 --> 00:56:57,948
And they could be successful in their own strategies in terms of acquiring Bitcoin.

983
00:56:58,068 --> 00:56:59,868
And maybe they consider expanding globally.

984
00:57:00,529 --> 00:57:02,848
And so there could be opportunities for acquisitions.

985
00:57:03,068 --> 00:57:04,689
And that's the decision that they'll make.

986
00:57:04,689 --> 00:57:12,488
I mean, you know, Orange BTC is just focused on our region, focused on Brazil, and accelerating Bitcoin adoption there.

987
00:57:13,468 --> 00:57:15,209
And I think that's the right move for us.

988
00:57:15,348 --> 00:57:21,229
Like, we're not thinking, like, we're just focused on our market right now and building a presence and a brand there.

989
00:57:22,029 --> 00:57:30,169
So Jack's recently been quite vocal about trying to, I think at least, he's trying to separate himself from this idea of like a pure play Bitcoin treasury company.

990
00:57:30,169 --> 00:57:33,809
and he's trying to push them as a Bitcoin company

991
00:57:33,809 --> 00:57:35,529
that are trying to build services.

992
00:57:36,229 --> 00:57:37,709
Is that something that you do at Orange

993
00:57:37,709 --> 00:57:40,848
or are you just pure play on the treasury stuff?

994
00:57:41,848 --> 00:57:43,749
I mean, we're an education company.

995
00:57:44,068 --> 00:57:47,088
I mean, so we went public via reverse merger.

996
00:57:47,729 --> 00:57:49,468
We took over an education company

997
00:57:49,468 --> 00:57:51,769
and there's a lot of infrastructure there

998
00:57:51,769 --> 00:57:54,809
and we plan on repurposing it for Bitcoin education.

999
00:57:55,148 --> 00:57:58,648
So curriculum courses, educational content.

1000
00:57:58,648 --> 00:58:03,588
And so that's our focus right now.

1001
00:58:03,689 --> 00:58:04,988
But like I said, down the road,

1002
00:58:05,368 --> 00:58:08,888
we've been inundated with already opportunities.

1003
00:58:09,648 --> 00:58:11,689
We almost have to just focus on building out

1004
00:58:11,689 --> 00:58:13,108
our treasury operations right now.

1005
00:58:13,689 --> 00:58:15,908
And so right now, we're an education company

1006
00:58:15,908 --> 00:58:17,448
that also has treasury operations

1007
00:58:17,448 --> 00:58:21,029
that are implementing that sailor strategy,

1008
00:58:21,128 --> 00:58:22,809
so to speak, that business model.

1009
00:58:23,189 --> 00:58:27,008
But down the road, we see ourselves thinking through

1010
00:58:27,008 --> 00:58:28,388
what is the best use of our time

1011
00:58:28,388 --> 00:58:33,508
given our resources and the return on investment to go through whether that's you know i'm just

1012
00:58:33,508 --> 00:58:38,348
throwing this out like whether that's lending whether that's you know a credit or debit card

1013
00:58:38,348 --> 00:58:43,148
that's that provides bitcoin back you know the market is wide open that's what i mean in brazil

1014
00:58:43,148 --> 00:58:49,769
and so if a opportunity comes up and we think it's attractive um for not only ourselves but

1015
00:58:49,769 --> 00:58:56,309
also for bitcoin adoption we'll probably consider it and we have we have a experience as well with

1016
00:58:56,309 --> 00:58:58,448
Bitcoin financial services like Jack.

1017
00:58:58,868 --> 00:59:00,468
I don't know what Jack's going to do.

1018
00:59:00,608 --> 00:59:02,809
I'm so curious to see what 21 is.

1019
00:59:02,868 --> 00:59:03,428
I'm excited.

1020
00:59:04,428 --> 00:59:08,829
The beauty of this is it's all good for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners.

1021
00:59:09,189 --> 00:59:11,888
And so Jack's successful and 21's successful

1022
00:59:11,888 --> 00:59:14,029
and Michael's successful at strategy.

1023
00:59:14,348 --> 00:59:16,588
And it all leads to demand

1024
00:59:16,588 --> 00:59:18,968
and that strengthens every single balance sheet

1025
00:59:18,968 --> 00:59:19,709
that holds Bitcoin.

1026
00:59:20,148 --> 00:59:23,829
And so I'm just excited to see what he means by that

1027
00:59:23,829 --> 00:59:25,368
because there's a little bit of uncertainty.

1028
00:59:25,368 --> 00:59:29,928
but I want to bet against Jack or Apollo.

1029
00:59:30,809 --> 00:59:31,829
It's going to be great.

1030
00:59:32,148 --> 00:59:35,968
I'm excited to see more of these treasury companies pop up

1031
00:59:35,968 --> 00:59:38,148
because I think it's all good for Bitcoin.

1032
00:59:38,529 --> 00:59:41,448
I think some people are saying,

1033
00:59:41,608 --> 00:59:43,169
well, we should focus on payments.

1034
00:59:43,388 --> 00:59:44,229
We should focus on...

1035
00:59:44,229 --> 00:59:47,348
And to me, it's like if you're passionate about that

1036
00:59:47,348 --> 00:59:49,608
and that's what you want to focus on, great.

1037
00:59:50,669 --> 00:59:52,408
Make Bitcoin's payments better.

1038
00:59:52,829 --> 00:59:53,689
That's awesome.

1039
00:59:53,689 --> 00:59:55,548
And so treasury companies are like,

1040
00:59:55,669 --> 00:59:57,669
we're going to improve accessibility to Bitcoin

1041
00:59:57,669 --> 01:00:00,908
because there's large pools of capital

1042
01:00:00,908 --> 01:00:03,169
that can't buy us from Bitcoin,

1043
01:00:03,329 --> 01:00:05,209
but they can buy Bitcoin-backed security.

1044
01:00:05,529 --> 01:00:06,669
That's good for Bitcoin too.

1045
01:00:07,128 --> 01:00:09,388
And so I just see them as in parallel with one another.

1046
01:00:09,908 --> 01:00:11,729
And if you're passionate about something,

1047
01:00:11,829 --> 01:00:12,908
a specific part of Bitcoin,

1048
01:00:13,148 --> 01:00:14,689
then you should just focus your time and energy

1049
01:00:14,689 --> 01:00:15,868
and build stuff around it

1050
01:00:15,868 --> 01:00:19,008
because it's all going to come together

1051
01:00:19,008 --> 01:00:21,088
and it's all going to help push Bitcoin adoption

1052
01:00:21,088 --> 01:00:21,968
at the end of the day.

1053
01:00:21,968 --> 01:00:25,108
Yeah, my left curve take is buying Bitcoin is kind of cool.

1054
01:00:25,588 --> 01:00:26,888
Buying Bitcoin is cool.

1055
01:00:27,128 --> 01:00:28,029
Yeah, that's great.

1056
01:00:28,448 --> 01:00:35,209
The big, one of the reasons I'm skeptical is like on the underlying business that these treasury companies have.

1057
01:00:35,448 --> 01:00:36,749
Like, I don't know if it matters.

1058
01:00:37,209 --> 01:00:41,428
Like, I don't know if that actually plays any part in the treasury companies, even like strategy.

1059
01:00:41,729 --> 01:00:46,128
Like they have a cash flowing business that's pretty large, but I don't know if it matters.

1060
01:00:46,408 --> 01:00:51,468
Like, I don't think anyone's buying either the common stock or the preferreds because of the underlying business.

1061
01:00:52,048 --> 01:00:53,029
You mean the software business?

1062
01:00:53,189 --> 01:00:53,428
Yeah.

1063
01:00:54,249 --> 01:00:55,968
Well, I would say their business now

1064
01:00:55,968 --> 01:00:58,628
is almost like a digital credit issuer

1065
01:00:58,628 --> 01:01:03,189
or like a Bitcoin financing franchise

1066
01:01:03,189 --> 01:01:05,508
is what Matt Levine at Bloomberg called it.

1067
01:01:06,428 --> 01:01:09,289
They're an issuer of Bitcoin-backed credit products,

1068
01:01:09,508 --> 01:01:10,908
and that's a business.

1069
01:01:11,088 --> 01:01:12,488
That's a business in itself.

1070
01:01:13,928 --> 01:01:15,908
But they also have a software business.

1071
01:01:16,309 --> 01:01:17,948
Yeah, does anyone care about the software business?

1072
01:01:18,468 --> 01:01:20,229
Well, I think their investor base

1073
01:01:20,229 --> 01:01:24,249
has changed dramatically since they've adopted Bitcoin

1074
01:01:24,249 --> 01:01:26,488
and developed this strategy.

1075
01:01:26,848 --> 01:01:30,289
I think it's become maybe less important over time,

1076
01:01:30,448 --> 01:01:34,448
but at the same time, I think there's a large part

1077
01:01:34,448 --> 01:01:36,468
of their business that's also just focused on that

1078
01:01:36,468 --> 01:01:39,148
in terms of the people, and they're still building products.

1079
01:01:39,148 --> 01:01:41,229
They're still making millions of dollars

1080
01:01:41,229 --> 01:01:42,388
through that business line.

1081
01:01:43,448 --> 01:01:47,249
Maybe over time, it might get less important

1082
01:01:47,249 --> 01:01:48,648
as Bitcoin grows in adoption,

1083
01:01:48,648 --> 01:01:52,148
and the Bitcoin part of their business grows.

1084
01:01:52,968 --> 01:01:54,988
But I wouldn't say it doesn't matter.

1085
01:01:55,448 --> 01:02:00,749
I think shareholders in general are more Bitcoin-focused

1086
01:02:00,749 --> 01:02:02,709
and they've benefited from that.

1087
01:02:03,289 --> 01:02:05,249
But I think it still matters.

1088
01:02:05,908 --> 01:02:07,689
I think at the end of the day,

1089
01:02:08,148 --> 01:02:10,068
it's kind of complementary to their strategy.

1090
01:02:10,928 --> 01:02:13,169
I would be a little bit surprised.

1091
01:02:13,269 --> 01:02:14,628
I could be proven completely wrong here

1092
01:02:14,628 --> 01:02:17,249
if that part of the company still exists in 10 years' time.

1093
01:02:17,249 --> 01:02:19,988
I imagine they just become a Bitcoin bank and that bit's lost.

1094
01:02:20,388 --> 01:02:22,309
Yeah, I mean, I could see that.

1095
01:02:22,709 --> 01:02:23,709
I might agree with that.

1096
01:02:24,068 --> 01:02:26,108
So Bitcoin treasury companies are good for Bitcoin?

1097
01:02:27,249 --> 01:02:27,628
Yes.

1098
01:02:28,169 --> 01:02:29,408
Tell me why they are not.

1099
01:02:29,568 --> 01:02:31,348
No, I don't think they're bad for Bitcoin.

1100
01:02:31,809 --> 01:02:34,289
I don't know if they're necessarily good for all the investors,

1101
01:02:34,769 --> 01:02:36,189
but I think they're good for Bitcoin.

1102
01:02:36,408 --> 01:02:37,088
They're buying more Bitcoin.

1103
01:02:37,189 --> 01:02:37,508
That's cool.

1104
01:02:38,088 --> 01:02:38,669
Well, why not?

1105
01:02:38,789 --> 01:02:41,428
Why do you think they're not good for the investors, I guess?

1106
01:02:41,488 --> 01:02:43,948
I guess maybe I'm specifically talking about retail investors.

1107
01:02:44,068 --> 01:02:45,428
I think people should just be buying Bitcoin.

1108
01:02:45,428 --> 01:02:50,368
because I think MNAV is going to be super volatile.

1109
01:02:50,848 --> 01:02:52,868
I think there is probably a gravity to one.

1110
01:02:52,988 --> 01:02:53,968
So if there's a gravity to one,

1111
01:02:54,048 --> 01:02:54,988
why not just own Bitcoin?

1112
01:02:55,988 --> 01:02:58,928
And that gravity could be below one.

1113
01:02:59,048 --> 01:02:59,488
I don't know.

1114
01:02:59,789 --> 01:03:01,468
Yeah, no, you got to earn the premium.

1115
01:03:01,608 --> 01:03:02,669
That's kind of what I said earlier.

1116
01:03:02,669 --> 01:03:06,309
And it's also, it's more volatile than Bitcoin.

1117
01:03:06,468 --> 01:03:07,029
I mean, that's right.

1118
01:03:07,189 --> 01:03:08,448
But some people want that.

1119
01:03:08,608 --> 01:03:09,249
Yeah, for sure.

1120
01:03:09,428 --> 01:03:10,289
They want that upside.

1121
01:03:10,689 --> 01:03:13,568
But that upside doesn't come without downside risk too.

1122
01:03:13,749 --> 01:03:15,368
Yeah, and I'm like, I'm nothing against it.

1123
01:03:15,368 --> 01:03:21,448
no no i'm trying to understand it because there is it's a it's a divisive uh issue on x and stuff

1124
01:03:21,448 --> 01:03:26,968
and i it's hard for me to understand because i always saw bitcoin adoption happening this way

1125
01:03:26,968 --> 01:03:32,648
of like corporate adoption having bitcoin back credit products like i always saw this happening

1126
01:03:32,648 --> 01:03:37,928
and i think maybe people are a little upset because they it's not like spot bitcoin but if you

1127
01:03:37,928 --> 01:03:43,249
nothing beats like if you want to own the asset,

1128
01:03:43,588 --> 01:03:45,309
to remove counterparty risk,

1129
01:03:45,428 --> 01:03:46,628
to have censorship resistance,

1130
01:03:46,988 --> 01:03:49,148
if you want the capital efficiency,

1131
01:03:49,329 --> 01:03:51,448
meaning like you got to make cross-border payments.

1132
01:03:51,608 --> 01:03:53,968
Like there's so many things that only Bitcoin,

1133
01:03:54,088 --> 01:03:55,169
spot Bitcoin could do.

1134
01:03:55,908 --> 01:03:57,829
And it's not to say that that's not awesome.

1135
01:03:58,169 --> 01:04:01,769
And like a good, to me, it's like a foundational asset

1136
01:04:01,769 --> 01:04:04,388
in every single portfolio should have spot Bitcoin,

1137
01:04:04,588 --> 01:04:06,048
you know, in self-custody.

1138
01:04:06,048 --> 01:04:08,749
It's something I've been passionate about for a very long time.

1139
01:04:09,329 --> 01:04:15,809
I just think some people also want amplified Bitcoin, as Michael says it, or simply it's in like a 401k.

1140
01:04:16,568 --> 01:04:22,749
Like I have a 401k and I own a Bitcoin ETF because I can't buy Bitcoin in that 401k.

1141
01:04:22,948 --> 01:04:23,388
So that's what I mean.

1142
01:04:23,448 --> 01:04:25,868
It's just the way that capital markets are structured.

1143
01:04:26,289 --> 01:04:30,448
You just have these siloed pools of capital that can't buy it.

1144
01:04:30,529 --> 01:04:33,868
And so now we're saying, hey, we're going to inject Bitcoin into there as well.

1145
01:04:33,868 --> 01:04:38,189
So nothing replicates spot Bitcoin in self-custody.

1146
01:04:38,189 --> 01:04:42,749
It has unique value propositions.

1147
01:04:42,749 --> 01:04:44,908
And I think everyone kind of benefits from that.

1148
01:04:44,908 --> 01:04:47,468
That's not to mean that there's not usefulness

1149
01:04:48,269 --> 01:04:50,348
for other Bitcoin backed securities as well.

1150
01:04:50,348 --> 01:04:51,309
No, I agree with that.

1151
01:04:51,309 --> 01:04:52,269
And I think you're right.

1152
01:04:52,269 --> 01:04:54,508
Like this was always going to happen as Bitcoin gets adopted.

1153
01:04:54,508 --> 01:04:56,508
There's always going to be corporations buying Bitcoin,

1154
01:04:56,508 --> 01:04:58,029
doing these financial gains with them.

1155
01:04:58,029 --> 01:04:59,068
And I think that's cool.

1156
01:04:59,068 --> 01:05:00,189
I'm not against it at all.

1157
01:05:00,189 --> 01:05:08,988
The issue I have is, like, if you're selling spot Bitcoin to speculate on treasury companies, I think that might be a bad idea.

1158
01:05:09,289 --> 01:05:15,368
Like, you might get it right, but, like, spot Bitcoin is the sacred part of the bottom of this entire stack, and, like, you should just be saving that.

1159
01:05:15,628 --> 01:05:19,408
Like, if it's a 401k, something that you can't access spot Bitcoin, like, different story.

1160
01:05:19,729 --> 01:05:23,108
And if you're, like, an institution that can't buy spot Bitcoin, different story.

1161
01:05:23,229 --> 01:05:28,689
But I just, the idea of, like, Bitcoin is selling their Bitcoin to buy a treasury company is the part that I don't like.

1162
01:05:28,689 --> 01:05:33,709
Yeah, I think it's about understanding the risk return trade-offs. Because when you're

1163
01:05:33,709 --> 01:05:43,068
buying Bitcoin, the risk is like protocol risk when it comes down to it. And when you buy an

1164
01:05:43,068 --> 01:05:48,888
equity in a Bitcoin treasury company, you're moving it from protocol risk to the management team,

1165
01:05:49,029 --> 01:05:53,769
and trusting the management team to execute on the strategy to accumulate Bitcoin faster than

1166
01:05:53,769 --> 01:05:59,008
you could yourself to increase Bitcoin per share on your behalf. And so you're moving that risk from

1167
01:05:59,008 --> 01:06:04,669
the protocol, which I think we both agree is like, there's nothing more secure than the Bitcoin

1168
01:06:04,669 --> 01:06:09,628
network right now. That's another thing of the fundamentals, like got hash rate above one zeta

1169
01:06:09,628 --> 01:06:13,568
hash. I mean, it's amazing. That's one of the more bullish charts out there, I think.

1170
01:06:14,249 --> 01:06:19,588
So you're moving the risk from the protocol risks to humans, you know, and their ability to execute

1171
01:06:19,588 --> 01:06:20,368
on the strategy.

1172
01:06:20,769 --> 01:06:22,468
And so you got to understand

1173
01:06:22,468 --> 01:06:23,729
the risk return you're taking

1174
01:06:23,729 --> 01:06:25,988
and that you're moving it

1175
01:06:25,988 --> 01:06:27,428
from the Bitcoin network

1176
01:06:27,428 --> 01:06:30,029
to humans and their ability to execute.

1177
01:06:30,428 --> 01:06:33,529
So just being clear about that risk,

1178
01:06:33,729 --> 01:06:34,988
like doing due diligence,

1179
01:06:35,209 --> 01:06:36,468
understanding what you own

1180
01:06:36,468 --> 01:06:37,888
in both Bitcoin

1181
01:06:37,888 --> 01:06:39,189
and a Bitcoin treasury company

1182
01:06:39,189 --> 01:06:39,948
is so important

1183
01:06:39,948 --> 01:06:41,428
before you make that decision.

1184
01:06:41,888 --> 01:06:42,729
And that's kind of,

1185
01:06:43,088 --> 01:06:44,108
that's how I think about it.

1186
01:06:44,388 --> 01:06:44,529
Yeah.

1187
01:06:44,588 --> 01:06:46,888
And like the reason I would tell people

1188
01:06:46,888 --> 01:06:48,088
not to like sell Bitcoin

1189
01:06:48,088 --> 01:06:48,868
to buy a treasury company

1190
01:06:48,868 --> 01:06:53,348
the same reason I'd tell people not to sell Bitcoin now hoping to buy back lower. Like you

1191
01:06:53,348 --> 01:06:57,269
want to protect your Bitcoin, but if you are in like a trap pool of capital, then having exposure

1192
01:06:57,269 --> 01:07:04,789
to Bitcoin is better than almost anything else. So I just think it's like, what I haven't enjoyed

1193
01:07:04,789 --> 01:07:09,829
is like the retail fervor around the treasury companies, because I think most people have

1194
01:07:09,829 --> 01:07:13,669
probably not done very well on that. It's like people that have made loads of money on strategy,

1195
01:07:13,669 --> 01:07:15,968
then those people have lost loads of money on strategy.

1196
01:07:17,148 --> 01:07:19,829
And like selling Bitcoin to speculate on a treasury company,

1197
01:07:19,868 --> 01:07:21,769
I think might end up hurting you.

1198
01:07:22,048 --> 01:07:22,809
Yeah, I don't know.

1199
01:07:22,908 --> 01:07:25,729
I mean, it's a bit if they were trying to trade.

1200
01:07:25,829 --> 01:07:28,608
I mean, I think most people have made a great amount of money

1201
01:07:28,608 --> 01:07:30,388
with the strategy over a long period of time.

1202
01:07:30,488 --> 01:07:32,428
I mean, it's still one of the best performing stocks

1203
01:07:32,428 --> 01:07:33,568
of all the S&P 500.

1204
01:07:33,809 --> 01:07:36,729
I think only NVIDIA, since they adopted Bitcoin,

1205
01:07:36,829 --> 01:07:37,848
has outperformed it now.

1206
01:07:38,088 --> 01:07:39,588
But we know that retail buys the top.

1207
01:07:40,189 --> 01:07:41,669
Yeah, so it's, well, it's just a matter.

1208
01:07:41,669 --> 01:07:46,229
again it's about like position sizing understand what you own and you're right it's just about

1209
01:07:46,229 --> 01:07:51,029
education and um same thing with the bitcoin we say the same thing with bitcoin right i mean

1210
01:07:52,148 --> 01:07:58,709
people the one thing i worry like i agree with you a little bit is i get worried when people

1211
01:07:59,508 --> 01:08:05,189
skip bitcoin and don't understand bitcoin and all the great things about it and then just go straight

1212
01:08:05,189 --> 01:08:10,548
into uh these dots and it's more of a trade for them and they don't really care about what the

1213
01:08:10,548 --> 01:08:11,689
the Bitcoin strategy is.

1214
01:08:11,729 --> 01:08:12,468
They don't really understand

1215
01:08:12,468 --> 01:08:13,249
what they're even doing.

1216
01:08:13,368 --> 01:08:15,169
They're just seeing a stock ticker going up.

1217
01:08:15,669 --> 01:08:16,608
That's where I get concerned

1218
01:08:16,608 --> 01:08:17,309
because like you gotta,

1219
01:08:17,729 --> 01:08:19,068
it's, Bitcoin's such an awesome,

1220
01:08:19,329 --> 01:08:20,568
awesome thing.

1221
01:08:20,748 --> 01:08:21,208
It's just like,

1222
01:08:21,389 --> 01:08:23,488
it's such a cool technology

1223
01:08:23,488 --> 01:08:25,329
and there's so many great things

1224
01:08:25,329 --> 01:08:26,849
about the asset to own.

1225
01:08:27,309 --> 01:08:29,168
And they're really missing the point

1226
01:08:29,168 --> 01:08:30,469
if they don't do that education

1227
01:08:30,469 --> 01:08:32,088
to understand why strategies

1228
01:08:32,088 --> 01:08:33,208
acquiring Bitcoin

1229
01:08:33,208 --> 01:08:34,508
and why Bitcoin's cool

1230
01:08:34,508 --> 01:08:36,088
and why it's important.

1231
01:08:36,568 --> 01:08:37,349
And so I hope,

1232
01:08:37,448 --> 01:08:39,488
I hope if anybody's listening to this

1233
01:08:39,488 --> 01:08:42,789
who skip that, go back to the first principles

1234
01:08:42,789 --> 01:08:44,289
and just learn about Bitcoin

1235
01:08:44,289 --> 01:08:46,748
and then make a decision from there.

1236
01:08:47,229 --> 01:08:49,809
This is why the Bitcoin treasury companies

1237
01:08:49,809 --> 01:08:52,748
are accumulating Bitcoin because we love Bitcoin

1238
01:08:52,748 --> 01:08:54,608
and we want to drive its adoption

1239
01:08:54,608 --> 01:08:56,969
because we think it's the most important technology

1240
01:08:56,969 --> 01:08:58,008
of the 21st century.

1241
01:08:58,748 --> 01:09:01,448
And it's solving the biggest problem of the 21st century,

1242
01:09:01,648 --> 01:09:04,429
which is currency debasement and the inability to save.

1243
01:09:04,769 --> 01:09:07,108
So that's the advice that I would give.

1244
01:09:07,108 --> 01:09:09,588
You've just, you got to start with Bitcoin

1245
01:09:09,588 --> 01:09:10,948
and then go from there.

1246
01:09:11,389 --> 01:09:13,008
And maybe strategy was a bad example there,

1247
01:09:13,088 --> 01:09:14,908
but we're at David Bailey's conference,

1248
01:09:15,068 --> 01:09:15,809
so I'm sorry, David,

1249
01:09:15,948 --> 01:09:18,488
but look at all the people that invest in NACA.

1250
01:09:19,148 --> 01:09:20,349
It can be brutal.

1251
01:09:20,608 --> 01:09:21,789
And if you're selling Bitcoin thinking

1252
01:09:21,789 --> 01:09:23,248
that thing's going to pump when it goes public,

1253
01:09:23,588 --> 01:09:25,988
you're down a hell of a lot of money.

1254
01:09:26,708 --> 01:09:28,889
And sometimes just owning Bitcoin

1255
01:09:28,889 --> 01:09:31,329
and playing the long game is probably the best option.

1256
01:09:31,908 --> 01:09:35,088
Like I said, there's nothing that competes with Bitcoin

1257
01:09:35,088 --> 01:09:38,729
in terms of like the risk adjusted returns,

1258
01:09:38,809 --> 01:09:39,608
I guess you could say.

1259
01:09:39,729 --> 01:09:39,908
Yeah.

1260
01:09:39,988 --> 01:09:41,548
When you're comparing these things.

1261
01:09:41,729 --> 01:09:43,789
And, you know, I own Bitcoin

1262
01:09:43,789 --> 01:09:46,849
because of the potential, obviously,

1263
01:09:46,988 --> 01:09:50,229
but also all the risk I remove when I own it

1264
01:09:50,229 --> 01:09:51,829
compared to all the other asset classes.

1265
01:09:51,829 --> 01:09:53,628
And I think it's like an important differentiation

1266
01:09:53,628 --> 01:09:54,568
to think about.

1267
01:09:55,229 --> 01:09:56,269
And because people see risk,

1268
01:09:56,349 --> 01:09:58,508
they see volatility when they look at Bitcoin.

1269
01:09:58,648 --> 01:10:01,729
But all I see is like removal of risk.

1270
01:10:01,869 --> 01:10:03,349
Like you're removing counterparty risk,

1271
01:10:03,469 --> 01:10:04,628
you're removing business risk,

1272
01:10:04,628 --> 01:10:09,648
sector risk, management risk. And that's really attractive. It's the same reason why a lot of

1273
01:10:09,648 --> 01:10:17,189
people own gold. And so nothing really competes with Bitcoin for long periods of time. But

1274
01:10:17,189 --> 01:10:22,269
we know that it's very difficult to outperform Bitcoin. One way to outperform it would be to

1275
01:10:22,269 --> 01:10:27,769
get more Bitcoin and accumulate more Bitcoin and leverage Bitcoin play. And that's what Bitcoin

1276
01:10:27,769 --> 01:10:33,469
treasury companies are. And so you're taking on more risk, but you could potentially outperform

1277
01:10:33,469 --> 01:10:36,668
Bitcoin even. So that's why people are attracted to it.

1278
01:10:36,668 --> 01:10:39,708
Yeah. It's going to be an interesting couple of years to see how this all plays out.

1279
01:10:40,508 --> 01:10:41,548
Keep buying Bitcoin, Sam.

1280
01:10:42,668 --> 01:10:47,548
We're going to do that. That's the plan. Educate and accumulate. That's the plan.

1281
01:10:47,548 --> 01:10:49,389
Awesome. Thank you for the time, man. It's been good.

1282
01:10:49,389 --> 01:10:53,068
Yeah. Thanks, man. Appreciate it.

1283
01:11:03,469 --> 01:11:33,448
Thank you.