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When I see all this selling, who is buying?

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Who is buying?

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It feels to me like it's got to be banks and it could be sovereigns because it's in the

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spot market and the size, the size of it is just extraordinary.

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But this cycle has been very, very unique in just the scale, dollar value.

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Is it a new cycle or is it a super cycle?

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Is it a four-year cycle?

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Is it a five-year cycle?

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gold doesn't move until it wants to move and when it moves you should pay attention it's telling us

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that the system is bankrupt and we have to move to a new reserve asset all roads converge to there's

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going to be more dollars 200 would be fantastic um i do think it's gonna be a positive year

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get bullish because bitcoin's not going anywhere it's going to come back like a cockroach happy days

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all right it's rock and roll sweet jack mate you're on this show every week at the moment

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I know.

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How's it going, man?

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This is the first one in person, though.

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It is, yes.

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Since the new pod.

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We were talking about what we're going to talk about today.

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It's like, I don't know, maybe the red candle, the 80,000, might have something to do with it?

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Well, the plan was, I was obviously coming down here to do a couple of interviews.

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I wanted to record a show with you that was like evergreen so we could release it on the

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first episode of the next year because you started off the podcast.

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But Bitcoin didn't let us do that.

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No.

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A bit of volatility, though.

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I mean, like, I'll tell you what.

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How bored was it at 100K, at 110, going sideways, doing nothing?

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like and i've been thinking about this a lot of hodlers the 15 down sucks because it's like not

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enough of a discount where you're like yeah okay now jump in once you start talking about like 25

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30 30 something everyone's like okay now it's like uh now it's like cheap sats right now we're

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trying to find where that bottom is but like it's it just fires up the hodlers again i mean i felt

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myself 100k i'm like it's a dip like i stack sats up there but i'm like now we're at 80 i'm like

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let's go oh this is value oh yeah this is value but before we get into that alec welcome to the

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show man how you doing very good super stoked to be here you're the uh you're the man behind the

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scenes at check on chain and the scenes yeah so yeah introduce yourself wow well um yeah i'm alec

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i'm co-founder of check on chain and been working with james for about four or five years now we

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started a glass node together actually so i was like the first marketing hire at glass node um

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we were trying to build some stuff over there and then we decided you know what it's time to do our

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own thing bring back to home soil come to australia and kick off check on chain what's with the aussie

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contingent at glass node is that we were the only contingent okay yeah yeah no we were it so i think

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i was employee number eight you would have been like 12 or 13 or something like that um but alec

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and i we've known each other our whole lives yeah oh cool yeah yeah no since we're like three years

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old preschool buddies yeah yeah it goes a long way um and then we worked together because you know i

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was a civil engineer working at a data company sending marketing emails like i mean it's it's

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It's horrific.

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So I was like, I just need help.

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We were living together at the time.

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And I said, can you give me a hand with these things?

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Sending emails and all the rest of it.

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And next thing you know, we've got a marketing hire

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and lived in Mexico for what, nine months after the pandemic?

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Kind of building out all the different products and things there.

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And by the time we got to 2023, I was like, you know,

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it's time to set our own sail.

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And check on shame was always something I wanted to do,

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but it's really that challenge of like, let's start the business.

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You know, start from zero.

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You've got to find subscribers.

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You've got to keep them, right?

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You've got to actually give people value.

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And we spent a lot of time designing what the product was going to look like.

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And, you know, at the end of the day, you've got to give people something that's worthwhile

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reading and watching and, you know, value their time.

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And I'm also a big fan of valuing our time, right?

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So everything we do is paywall because it's, you know, I value my time, even like Alex's

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time and our customers, we value their time as well.

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So it's part of the mission.

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And yeah, we've got some exciting stuff coming up.

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I consider myself like an on-chain Padawan, kind of.

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I've been able to sit with Czech.

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I mean, I moved in in the pandemic.

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We had nothing to do.

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We couldn't go outside.

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So I'm just soaking up all this on chain information.

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And yeah, just over time, over osmosis,

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I'm kind of getting used to all these charts.

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I consider myself kind of like a pleb hodler,

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if you can think of that way.

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But yeah, I love helping and teaching

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and making sure hodlers are coming along in this journey.

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And just getting that data-driven side of the market

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is super important.

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Like getting off the price chart specifically

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and getting off X and just seeing all these crazy M2 charts.

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And by the way, which drives you mad,

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drives you mad.

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Yeah, the database approach with Bitcoin's beautiful blockchain

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is just so fascinating.

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So yeah, we're also building an exciting new project,

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which a bunch of people are going to be pretty happy to see

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coming out, our new charting platform.

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Long time coming.

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Yeah.

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I mean, right now, so the charting platform we had,

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I started building that in 2019

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and that was actually my excuse to learn Python.

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So back then, I'm a civil engineer, and what do civil engineers do?

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They use spreadsheets for everything.

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So I would download, I think CoinMetrics had the very first on-chain data set.

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I'd download that, plug it into my spreadsheet, all the charts would update once a day.

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I was like, I just can't do this anymore.

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There's got to be a better way.

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So I taught myself Python.

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And check on chain the software.

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It's like 150,000 lines now that runs every day.

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Oh, yeah, no, there's a lot of code.

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There's a lot of duct tape and a lot of zip ties in there, but I know where they are.

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So yeah, I mean, it's basically pulling

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all your different on-chain futures options.

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And that's what I love about,

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I think a lot of people know me as like an on-chain analyst,

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but I consider myself a Bitcoin analyst

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because we've got all these different market sectors.

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And more often than not,

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the ETS tell the same story as the on-chain DA,

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which tells the same story as the futures.

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They just have a different way of displaying it.

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But anyway, that software,

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I mean, it's literally the charting platform right now

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is a handwritten piece of HTML that I wrote.

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years ago it's it's real it's real basic but it's it's a journey to try and get it dude I remember

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I remember when we used to hang out when we were much younger and we played Counter-Strike

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like the Counter-Strike 1.6 which is like an FPS shooter if you're not aware um and he was coding

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up bots and like customizing in the console and doing all this wild coding stuff back then and

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like making all the custom maps for us so like I can really see he's basically all that was just

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All that was training.

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And now it's a giant code base of a million lines.

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You don't leave university.

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That's the other thing.

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I paid off my student debt for my engineering degree

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on the day that I quit to go and work at Glassnode.

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So that was kind of like a nice way to wrap it up.

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So it got me through my first 10 years of work experience.

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And then, yeah, I mean,

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I consider myself a Bitcoin analyst now.

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So it's one of those fascinating,

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you don't set out to be a Bitcoin analyst.

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You don't even know that Bitcoin exists.

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You don't set out to be a Bitcoin podcaster.

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You don't set out to be a Bitcoin podcaster.

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It's just one of those things where it pulls me back in, right?

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Sucks you back into the industry and you just can't leave.

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Honestly, one of the things I find most fascinating

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is when you meet people who have found out about Bitcoin,

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they know in a little bit,

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and then they can just go on about their life like nothing changed.

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Like, I don't understand how that mindset exists.

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What's the line?

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Nobody's a Bitcoin critic once you understand the difficulty adjustment.

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Yeah.

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Once that part clicks.

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And the other one, have you seen the Matthew McConaughey scale?

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Like, the grid of nine.

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Is this where he's like smoking on one of them?

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No, no, it kind of goes like he's really green,

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he's coming in, he's like looking all happy,

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he's got his cigar like before the bear market hits.

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And then as you go down, you go through the bear

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and he's crying and then by the time you get to six,

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panel six is where he's standing there with a shotgun, right?

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Standing out there like-

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I am number six for sure.

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But I was number six, that was like my 2019, 2021 era.

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I don't think you ever leave six,

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you always revert back to six.

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I feel like I'm a six right now.

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So I gradually get up into like a seven and an eight.

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No one gets to a nine.

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Like nines, you're living on a boat and all the rest of it.

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You get hauled back to a six, especially on drawdowns.

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Because you're like, I'm not crying.

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Because I know what this bear happens, right?

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Bears go down.

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The market's going to recover.

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Bitcoin's going to be fine.

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But you get that like hardcore, cold card wielding.

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I'm holding my ground.

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I'm standing on the floor.

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You know, keep stacking set.

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Stay humble.

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It's funny.

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When stuff like this happens, I love it.

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That's great.

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And obviously, I don't want to see anyone getting wrecked and all that stuff.

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And that is obviously happening right now because people are taking leverage or whatever.

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But I love it.

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It's like, this is the stuff that makes you feel alive.

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But it's weird because this year, we did off the first show on the new What Bitcoin Did was with you.

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We recorded it twice because the first time we recorded it, it was like 95k.

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And then it went over 100k.

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I was like, dude, we've got to do it again.

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I don't think if you ask many Bitcoiners then, if we would be at a lower price in 12 months time, they'd have said yes.

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this year has been really strange, I think.

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Agreed.

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It's not really gone up much.

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Now we're entering this period where who knows

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if this is just a dip or if we're going into a bear market,

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what that's going to look like.

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But has this year surprised you?

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It has.

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I mean, it has.

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And I think the back half definitely surprises.

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However, I think the story of where we are right now

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has unfolded progressively.

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So if I was to really just recap this cycle, let's call it.

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2023, I would broadly just say, was the recovery from the bear.

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there's rumors that start to come in about the ETFs,

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but there was a lot of PTSD.

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That was the recovery of PTSD phase.

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2024, ETFs go live.

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We get the pump to 73K.

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And then we had the first period of chop consolidation,

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which a lot of people were calling for a bear market there too.

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And just for a bit of context, the 2024 chop,

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the tariff tantrum, and right now,

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all very, very similar.

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All very, very similar in their structure.

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This particular dip is the angriest of them now,

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but back at 95K, and we'll talk a lot about 95 shortly,

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at 95k looks exactly like all the other dips. That level was where it actually looks just the

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same as it did. Now, this chop solidation thing, this sideways grind is obviously new.

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2025 going sideways, in my view, there's three core pillars that I think have really driven this

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market cycle. And we were talking before about how data gives you just like, you look at all

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the Twitter narratives and you just don't see it happening in the data. How many people have seen

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of people talking about OG selling in the last like three weeks. I've been writing about it for

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six months because the, and that's not because I'm overly pressing, it's because literally you

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can see the amount of sell side that's going on. So the three pillars, ETFs, massive, big demand

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vector, in my opinion, just orders a magnitude more important than treasury companies in terms

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of the actual demand. And they're more like a passive bid. They've just been consistently buying.

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And honestly, we're seeing outflows. The outflows we've seen in this entire corrections, about 3

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billion that's been one day of hodler sell side in recent weeks so hodler sell side and people can

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argue and debate say oh long-term holders not really six months and they're not an og if it's

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only five years drop the terminology somebody had a opportunity cost of six months where they could

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have bought nvidia they could have bought literally anything else they held the coin for six months

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and the beautiful thing about the six month period ignore the fact that they're a long-term holder

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whatever your precondition of like, is it really long-term,

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they gave up six months of opportunity cost,

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and that naturally filters out the guy who bought yesterday

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and sold today, which is kind of just daily chop.

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You don't really care that someone bought yesterday

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and capitulated today.

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What you care about is someone who bought

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and is now selling later on.

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So the second pillar is that HODL or SEL side.

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It's been absolutely enormous and has been accelerating.

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It continues to accelerate.

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We're talking about billions of dollars a day

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in these revived coins.

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Now, not every single one of those coins is sold,

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but a lot of them are, you know, like a lot of them are. So you've got to just look at it from

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that perspective. And whenever you see revived supply ticking higher, the market is usually

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rallying and then peaks and then slows down and then backs off. So, you know, it doesn't take a

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rocket scientist to say there's a lot of old coins coming back to market and the market stopped going

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00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:52,100
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So I want to get into like what's happening now and what you think the next few months

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will look like.

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But if we just go back to when we first recorded the show nearly a year ago,

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just passed 100K.

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Has this been a bull market?

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00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:23,420
Good question.

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00:14:23,740 --> 00:14:24,260
Good question.

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00:14:24,420 --> 00:14:28,360
So I've been calling it more recently, to be fair, the great rotation.

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I think Geordie Visser actually had a really good piece,

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which captures like the zeitgeist of it.

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Now, I don't know if it's 100% accurate,

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but I do think that that essence of like the existing holder base rotating out,

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and this is the story that I think people really want to capture.

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So let me just quickly, before I forget, the three pillars I think change this market, ETFs, the HODL or sell side, and the IBIT options, which is going to move forward, be a massive, massive factor.

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00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,520
But going back to the great rotation, huge amounts of coins being sold.

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Now, we did not see those show up as demand in the ETFs, not even close.

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When you compare the amount of sell side pressure, profit taking, no matter how you want to frame it up, the ETFs typically are 20% to 30%.

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So we're missing the other five,

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you know, there's five times more stuff

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happening in the spot market.

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Same for Saylor.

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When you hear these narratives

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of Saylor has cornered the market

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and he's the only one who's captured,

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all the ETS have captured Bitcoin,

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00:15:22,540 --> 00:15:23,200
they're kind of forgetting

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that the existing spot markets

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are still out there

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and they're still the dominant factor

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in what's going on.

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Now, obviously derivatives and stuff

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are a layer on top of that,

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but when I see all this selling

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and we went sideways for 12 months,

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so 2025 has been a sideways grind

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00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:44,960
up until very recently who is buying who is buying this is the thing it's an unanswered question at

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00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:49,760
this point in time i'm dissatisfied with the answer but i like geordie fisher's idea of like

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00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:54,880
this great rotation or this ipo moment i've been calling the great rotation all hands getting out

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00:15:55,520 --> 00:16:01,920
no question it's been massive 110 billion in 24 and 25 combined from five-year-old plus coins

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00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,360
to you know you don't move a five-year-old coin unless you mean it yeah i mean like you

326
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,840
you don't just go moving it around because you want to there's a rhyme and reason to it

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00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,880
who are the buyers because it's not happening in the ets so it's not some hedge fund it's not some

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00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:21,440
like random entity it's spot so the fact that we went sideways under tens of billions i mean

329
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,560
you could argue and i'll talk about today at the conference like hundreds of billions of dollars

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00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:29,760
worth of sell side this year in spot markets and the price went sideways until very recently

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00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:34,640
who's buying that's the really interesting question i don't have an answer for but i

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00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:38,400
it's fascinating to think about just for anyone who's listening who doesn't know what the geordie

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00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:44,160
visa piece was basically he called this bitcoin's ipo moment and he he sort of draws a parallel to

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00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,640
traditional markets where people take an early stake in a company they're taking high risk

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00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:53,120
and the ipo moment when they've gone through all the pain to get there go public like these are now

336
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:57,760
publicly traded shares that's their opportunity to see liquidity for the first real time and so what

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00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:03,920
happens is a load of those early investors will dump their shares who knows you normally get an

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00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,860
an IPO pump and then price comes down. And he says that this is happening now in Bitcoin because for

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00:17:08,860 --> 00:17:14,200
the first time, if you bought Bitcoin in 2010, 2011, you're sat on hundreds of millions or billions

340
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,740
of dollars. In a legacy wallet somewhere. Yeah. And this is the first time you actually have the

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00:17:18,740 --> 00:17:22,400
liquidity to get out with the ETFs and all the treasury companies and whoever else who's on the

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00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:27,140
other side of that trade. I like that framing. I don't know if it's correct, but I think it's

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00:17:27,140 --> 00:17:30,900
interesting. The other thing to think about is like, imagine selling, we saw that dude who

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00:17:30,900 --> 00:17:37,460
offloaded 80,000 Bitcoin held from like 2011. Can you imagine offloading $10 billion worth of Bitcoin

345
00:17:37,460 --> 00:17:41,640
in the previous US administration? You'd have the feds up your ass. You know what I mean? Like you'd

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have your bank account shut down. So for the first time, the regulatory environment, there's the

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00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,980
price, there's the demand, there's the liquidity, and there's just, you're not going to get taken

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00:17:49,980 --> 00:17:54,580
out the back by the government. So I think there's a lot of elements here, which it kind of makes

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sense. And that's why I'm saying, I think it captures the zeitgeist of what's going on. It may

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00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:02,020
not be perfectly correct, but we always have to use simplified models to understand the world.

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00:18:02,060 --> 00:18:05,900
And I think it's actually a very valid way to think about it. It makes sense from just a

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00:18:05,900 --> 00:18:11,440
narrative perspective. And importantly, he calls this like a sign of success, not failure. Like,

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00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:17,180
this is a good thing that this is happening. Like, there's also the idea that this is moving funds

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00:18:17,180 --> 00:18:22,220
from being like concentrated in a number of like massive whales to being in everyone's hands,

355
00:18:22,260 --> 00:18:27,320
which is again, good for Bitcoin. But I think, does he say that he expects this to last somewhere

356
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:28,600
between 6 and 12 months.

357
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:29,740
Yeah, I mean, it's hard to tell

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00:18:29,740 --> 00:18:31,160
how long this whole process lasts.

359
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:32,500
I mean, to be fair, this rotation,

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00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:34,280
like the majority of the selling

361
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,100
has occurred really within the last six months.

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00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:39,480
So that was, and a lot of it was above 120K.

363
00:18:40,120 --> 00:18:42,360
If we look at, we use metrics like realized profit,

364
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,240
which shows the delta between when a coin was acquired

365
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:46,920
and when it was disposed of,

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00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,100
we saw, you know, again, billions of dollars a day

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00:18:50,100 --> 00:18:51,060
in realized profit.

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00:18:51,180 --> 00:18:52,820
And this is the other thing you can see,

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00:18:52,940 --> 00:18:53,660
coin day destruction,

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00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:55,660
lots of old coins coming back to life,

371
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,760
revived supply, the volume of them,

372
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,180
how much profit they're locking in.

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00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,240
All of these things were like record highs

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00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,280
in the March pump in 2024,

375
00:19:04,660 --> 00:19:06,220
in November, December, January,

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00:19:06,580 --> 00:19:08,360
when the kind of called the Trump pump.

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00:19:08,500 --> 00:19:11,320
And then this has been a very sustained period

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00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:12,660
of the back half of 2025,

379
00:19:13,380 --> 00:19:15,860
just tons and tons of sell site and ramping up.

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00:19:15,860 --> 00:19:19,540
But what we're now seeing is the folks who are selling,

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00:19:19,860 --> 00:19:21,460
there's a lot of people who are like six months,

382
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:22,720
six months to a year.

383
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,820
those guys are people who wish they had a board in video they gave up the opportunity cost they

384
00:19:27,820 --> 00:19:33,440
held bitcoin the momentum went nowhere there a lot of those guys are now selling and taking a loss

385
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,800
crystallizing a loss and this is probably if there's one thing i can just help people understand

386
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:44,640
right now 70 of all of the wealth that's ever been invested in bitcoin we price every utxo

387
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:51,420
based on when it last moved 70 has a cost basis above 85k that's insane 70 this is bitcoin's new

388
00:19:51,420 --> 00:19:56,360
home. So, you know, if you're talking about 30K and 10K and 5K Bitcoin, the truth is it's like

389
00:19:56,360 --> 00:20:00,580
ancient history. It just doesn't matter. There's not enough wealth down there. The wealth is all

390
00:20:00,580 --> 00:20:05,260
up here. Now, because we're below it, that's a lot of potential sellers on the way back up. So,

391
00:20:05,300 --> 00:20:10,600
the bulls have got a lot of work to do to get us out of this mess. However, the rotation of this

392
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:15,400
capital, think about who these new buyers are, right? These aren't retail hodlers putting in

393
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:19,720
their pocket money. You know, no one's got these kind of deep pockets. We're talking, there has to

394
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:33,180
could be banks could be sovereigns could be a bit of everything I saw the other day I forget which Gulf state but there a Gulf state that bought like half a billion dollars worth of ETF So like sovereigns are interested in this kind of thing And these folks feel like price insensitive buyers

395
00:20:33,300 --> 00:20:33,560
Yeah.

396
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:34,360
Where they just accumulate,

397
00:20:34,460 --> 00:20:35,500
they're just forever allocators.

398
00:20:35,700 --> 00:20:37,520
So there is going to be this rotation.

399
00:20:37,740 --> 00:20:39,060
Markets have got to go through this process.

400
00:20:39,060 --> 00:20:40,720
It'll take time to hammer out this bottom.

401
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,580
But at the same time, these guys probably aren't,

402
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:45,540
you know, they're sailor types.

403
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:46,140
They're not going to sell.

404
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,400
So there's going to be this process of,

405
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,400
you know, as we hammer out a floor,

406
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,140
wherever we find that clearing price,

407
00:20:52,660 --> 00:20:54,860
you know, Bitcoin's got a really bright future ahead of it.

408
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,740
In terms of revived supply,

409
00:20:57,220 --> 00:21:00,820
so what's the average age of coins being sold right now

410
00:21:00,820 --> 00:21:02,120
from the long-term holder cohort?

411
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,140
Because when we studied this data,

412
00:21:04,300 --> 00:21:07,820
like long-term holder sell side has been incredible this cycle.

413
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:09,320
Like nothing like it.

414
00:21:09,380 --> 00:21:10,800
We've never seen something like this.

415
00:21:10,900 --> 00:21:13,600
But a lot of it's from younger long-term holder coins,

416
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,020
which kind of can be a little confusing,

417
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,800
but it basically means one year plus held Bitcoin.

418
00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:19,400
They're all kind of just, get me out.

419
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:24,400
that's the kind of vibe with that yeah so the way to think about it and glass and actually ran a

420
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:29,640
really good study i think maybe last year um called time is money and they basically showed that there

421
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:34,440
is a very clear power law relationship it's a beautiful power the perfect perfect power law

422
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:39,460
relationship between the probability of a coin or utxo being spent on any one day and how long it's

423
00:21:39,460 --> 00:21:45,440
been held so in other words that means most of the coins like 90 of them that move on any one day

424
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,600
moved yesterday or the day before.

425
00:21:47,860 --> 00:21:50,560
The vast majority of on-chain volume moved recently.

426
00:21:51,220 --> 00:21:53,660
The older a coin is, the less likely it is to be spent.

427
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,560
But once you get to about five months,

428
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,420
what's the difference between a probability of 0.01%

429
00:21:58,420 --> 00:21:59,880
and 0.0001%?

430
00:22:00,020 --> 00:22:01,840
In practical terms, nothing.

431
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,080
It's the same probability.

432
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:04,800
It's very, very unlikely.

433
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:06,980
So five months is where they get to the point

434
00:22:06,980 --> 00:22:08,360
where for practical purposes,

435
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,980
we can just consider them to be a long-term holder.

436
00:22:10,980 --> 00:22:12,920
But within that long-term holder set,

437
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,100
they're very different to the short-term holders

438
00:22:15,100 --> 00:22:16,180
in their overall behavior.

439
00:22:16,900 --> 00:22:19,440
But you're right, the six-month-old long-term holders

440
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,080
are more active than the one years,

441
00:22:21,100 --> 00:22:22,620
and the one year is more active than the two years

442
00:22:22,620 --> 00:22:24,660
in a power law relationship.

443
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,060
And another fun fact is that the on-chain volume,

444
00:22:29,140 --> 00:22:31,840
if you break up what the size of a per transaction is,

445
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,520
the average transaction right now is moving $1 million plus.

446
00:22:36,660 --> 00:22:39,600
75% of on-chain volume is moving $1 million plus.

447
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,540
All-time high of that ratio.

448
00:22:41,540 --> 00:22:45,340
So institutional capital is what's moving around on chain.

449
00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:48,380
And you asked before, what's the average age of things?

450
00:22:48,580 --> 00:22:53,940
The baseline through most market cycles is the average coin that moves is 30 days old.

451
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,660
On average, the average spent coin is 30 days.

452
00:22:57,120 --> 00:23:00,420
This cycle has been an almost linear uptrend and we're now at about 100 days.

453
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:06,060
So that's more than three times as big as what your average is over any other previous cycle.

454
00:23:06,180 --> 00:23:09,180
So it always spikes in bulls because old money takes profits.

455
00:23:09,180 --> 00:23:16,900
but this cycle has been very very unique in just the size scale dollar value coin day destruction

456
00:23:16,900 --> 00:23:21,880
there's a metric we use called liveliness which shows all the coin days that have ever been

457
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:26,780
destroyed and all the coin days have ever been created dave puerle and i when we wrote uh coin

458
00:23:26,780 --> 00:23:33,060
time economics we kind of described that since 2017 the 2017 bull was actually where the the most

459
00:23:33,060 --> 00:23:37,400
coins came back to life and a lot of them were because of the bitcoin cash hard fork they wanted

460
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:38,520
to move coins to a new wallet,

461
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:39,680
take advantage of the dividend.

462
00:23:41,140 --> 00:23:43,200
We've just broken to new all-time highs in liveliness,

463
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:43,860
which means-

464
00:23:43,860 --> 00:23:45,660
I guess people were getting them off exchanges then as well

465
00:23:45,660 --> 00:23:46,940
so they could have the-

466
00:23:46,940 --> 00:23:47,640
All sorts of things.

467
00:23:47,820 --> 00:23:48,800
So there's just a lot of activity.

468
00:23:49,060 --> 00:23:50,020
And the thing with liveliness,

469
00:23:50,460 --> 00:23:53,660
it helps you understand how many coins are not lost, right?

470
00:23:53,820 --> 00:23:55,520
Because if a coin has been spent,

471
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,320
it might be, you might move it to your wallet

472
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:58,580
and then immediately lose the keys.

473
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,200
But we're not going to know that

474
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,560
until 10 years down the road

475
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:02,420
when it still hasn't moved

476
00:24:02,420 --> 00:24:04,260
and the probabilities increase that it's lost.

477
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,700
When coins come back to life and liveliness,

478
00:24:06,700 --> 00:24:10,580
It's just punched a new all-time high, which is honestly something I didn't expect to happen.

479
00:24:10,660 --> 00:24:12,240
I thought it was going to be range bound for a long time.

480
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:17,820
We have seen just an old coin transfer that is, frankly, it's unprecedented.

481
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,420
The only other time you can put anything similar is the 2017 bull.

482
00:24:22,580 --> 00:24:24,300
And a lot of that was the Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork.

483
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:24,940
Yeah.

484
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:30,800
And in terms of bull market correction, drawdowns, we have a chart that compares all of the drawdowns

485
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,720
in the current bull market, if we still think it's a bull market.

486
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,480
Right now, we're down 30%, I believe.

487
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:40,980
that happened in the tariff tantrum back in april when trump announced his with that big huge board

488
00:24:40,980 --> 00:24:47,320
of crazy tariffs and everything new tariff the penguins yeah is this not more than 30 now what

489
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:53,400
35 is the deepest okay yeah yeah but in term it's similar to the tariff tantrum but we were under

490
00:24:53,400 --> 00:25:00,680
100k at that point right i think the 100k having six figures is a very key like psychological level

491
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:05,240
for a lot of human beings just looking at the price so people who got in a year ago at 100k

492
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,400
because we're basically down on the year now.

493
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,620
Like they held for a whole year

494
00:25:10,620 --> 00:25:11,600
and they got invalidated.

495
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,120
They saw AI just ripping.

496
00:25:13,140 --> 00:25:13,900
And missed everything.

497
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,040
They missed all of that.

498
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,580
The government's very, very kind to AI.

499
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,580
You can see like the Trump administration is very,

500
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,420
it helps AI pump right now.

501
00:25:22,620 --> 00:25:23,600
They're doing whatever they can

502
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,360
to like make sure regulation is lower.

503
00:25:25,940 --> 00:25:26,860
The smart money just go,

504
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,960
I'm just going to rotate into AI.

505
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:29,900
Why wouldn't I?

506
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:31,520
Like Bitcoin just didn't do the thing.

507
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,540
The AI is going through a generational run.

508
00:25:34,540 --> 00:25:40,020
like this why wouldn't the smart money this is my perspective anyway the smart money should rotate

509
00:25:40,020 --> 00:25:44,800
into something that is more of a guarantee and that's kind of to me it's kind of simple almost

510
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:50,800
why bitcoin's a bit weak right now it's just because there's a more uh i don't know people

511
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,420
lusting over ai and it's just a better trade right now well i mean the world's a relative place

512
00:25:54,420 --> 00:25:58,180
capital markets money will move where it's treated best market doesn't go anywhere that's why you

513
00:25:58,180 --> 00:26:03,720
see these six months guys they're momentum traders but also bitcoin will find a flaw we all know it

514
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,900
find a flaw we're talking about this before shit coins the problem with shit coins is that you don't

515
00:26:07,900 --> 00:26:10,940
know if they will ever find a flaw you don't know if they're already going to come back bitcoin you

516
00:26:10,940 --> 00:26:15,240
know will find a flaw and will start moving and that momentum money will come ripping right back

517
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:21,740
right back out yeah so for me as a hodler that's why 15 down you're like okay but once it's like

518
00:26:21,740 --> 00:26:26,820
30 you're like oh i could maybe i should start driving ubers as well like you don't be like you

519
00:26:26,820 --> 00:26:32,020
start thinking for other ways you can maybe i can delay that bill maybe i can sort this you start

520
00:26:32,020 --> 00:26:37,000
getting hungry for the sats again. So once that market finds a bottom and starts moving,

521
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:42,180
a little bit of money is going to come roaring back in because the same reason I started buying

522
00:26:42,180 --> 00:26:46,220
Bitcoin in 2019, when like it finally dawned on me that, hey, the government's a bankrupt and

523
00:26:46,220 --> 00:26:49,380
they're going to have to print money to solve it. We were talking about it this morning over

524
00:26:49,380 --> 00:26:54,600
breakfast. When you play forward, whether it's AI is deflationary or if it's inflationary,

525
00:26:54,660 --> 00:26:58,720
I don't know which way you go, they're either going to have to pump the market because it wants

526
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,280
to collapse because we're seeing the popping of a bubble,

527
00:27:01,460 --> 00:27:03,480
or they're going to have to UBI because it's displaced everyone.

528
00:27:03,740 --> 00:27:08,080
So pick your poison, all roads converge to there's going to be more dollars,

529
00:27:08,540 --> 00:27:09,660
and there's going to be 21 million Bitcoin.

530
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,880
There's 5% left to mine.

531
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,320
It's going to take 110 years or 130 years to finally mine them all.

532
00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:16,720
All roads lead back to Bitcoin.

533
00:27:16,820 --> 00:27:18,360
All roads lead back to Bitcoin, stack sats.

534
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,700
One of the interesting things, and I think this is because we didn't have

535
00:27:21,700 --> 00:27:24,140
a bull market that almost anyone expected,

536
00:27:24,380 --> 00:27:26,520
is sentiment is absolutely shot, right?

537
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,940
But it was shot 10% below the all-time high.

538
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,260
It was shot so quickly.

539
00:27:31,460 --> 00:27:33,340
This has been a really interesting dynamic

540
00:27:33,340 --> 00:27:35,840
is watching how flaky sentiment has been.

541
00:27:36,180 --> 00:27:38,440
Now, I don't really have a good reason for that.

542
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:39,700
I think it's because we didn't have a bull run.

543
00:27:39,860 --> 00:27:42,300
At least not one comparable to previous bull run.

544
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,740
Yes, and I heard Lin say this in your pod,

545
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:45,920
and I've been saying it for a long time.

546
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:47,960
Expectations not meeting reality.

547
00:27:49,100 --> 00:27:50,400
Massive, massive reason,

548
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,520
because people had the green, green, green,

549
00:27:52,580 --> 00:27:54,260
and the last green was the big green.

550
00:27:54,260 --> 00:27:57,140
And if you actually look at the average monthly performance,

551
00:27:57,140 --> 00:27:58,940
I've run this for like the whole of Bitcoin's history.

552
00:27:59,180 --> 00:28:01,360
I've run it for just from 2015 onwards,

553
00:28:01,500 --> 00:28:03,160
from 2020 onwards, from 2023 onwards.

554
00:28:03,340 --> 00:28:04,460
And the pattern is very similar.

555
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,800
September is the only month where on average it's shit

556
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,380
and every other month is pretty good.

557
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,380
And then the last part of the year is the best.

558
00:28:12,780 --> 00:28:16,260
This year, every single month has been out of consensus.

559
00:28:16,420 --> 00:28:17,340
September was a good month.

560
00:28:17,940 --> 00:28:18,880
November has been terrible.

561
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:19,920
October has been terrible.

562
00:28:20,300 --> 00:28:22,780
So like it's just been a different year,

563
00:28:22,780 --> 00:28:24,740
but expectations not meeting reality,

564
00:28:24,860 --> 00:28:25,820
I think is a big part of it.

565
00:28:25,820 --> 00:28:26,860
The other thing is like,

566
00:28:26,980 --> 00:28:28,980
no one cares about who wins the bronze medal,

567
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:29,600
essentially.

568
00:28:29,900 --> 00:28:32,280
And we've had gold tearing, ripping,

569
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,020
and we've had the AI.

570
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,600
So Bitcoin's kind of like had bronze medal this year.

571
00:28:38,020 --> 00:28:40,240
And comparison is the thief of joy.

572
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:40,580
Totally.

573
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:42,360
Is a quote I love.

574
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,840
And basically all Bitcoiners have been doing,

575
00:28:45,020 --> 00:28:45,680
especially on X,

576
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,620
is comparing to things that have outrun Bitcoin,

577
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,040
which just makes everyone so sad.

578
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:52,220
Like there's no way to,

579
00:28:52,220 --> 00:28:53,540
even though Bitcoin ripped to 125,

580
00:28:53,780 --> 00:28:54,840
everyone should be joyous.

581
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,520
It's like, goes down a little bit

582
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:57,660
and then, but gold.

583
00:28:58,300 --> 00:29:00,600
But AR, oh, this sucks.

584
00:29:00,740 --> 00:29:02,920
Like immediately, especially humans,

585
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,960
just like getting that third bronze medal

586
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,320
is just never a good thing.

587
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,320
It was so funny watching Bitcoin

588
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,360
has become gold bugs

589
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:10,360
when gold went on its run.

590
00:29:11,020 --> 00:29:12,380
And like gold is the other,

591
00:29:12,540 --> 00:29:14,520
like I have 90% Bitcoin, 10% gold.

592
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:15,520
That's my portfolio.

593
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:16,520
And I sleep very well.

594
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:18,920
And I actually heard Luke Groman,

595
00:29:18,980 --> 00:29:19,800
I can't remember when he said it,

596
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,260
but he said it some time back.

597
00:29:21,260 --> 00:29:25,860
someone asked him what's his like non-consensus opinion and he goes that gold's going to have a

598
00:29:25,860 --> 00:29:29,780
period of time where it outperforms bitcoin and that's stuck with me for a long time and like

599
00:29:29,780 --> 00:29:35,820
the reason i have gold is like it's almost like a ballast in my portfolio where it's the same trade

600
00:29:35,820 --> 00:29:41,260
it's just not as volatile i can tap it when i want it and also i just sometimes want something that's

601
00:29:41,260 --> 00:29:46,900
not going to rip go down from 125 to 80 that's where it sits like a ballast part of my portfolio

602
00:29:46,900 --> 00:29:50,340
And in fact, I always try to get gold to 10%,

603
00:29:50,340 --> 00:29:52,160
but as we know, Bitcoin runs too hard.

604
00:29:52,540 --> 00:29:53,620
So I'm always chasing.

605
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,020
I literally have to continue to buy gold to get it to 10%.

606
00:29:56,020 --> 00:29:57,480
We might have finally hit it now at Bitcoin.

607
00:29:58,220 --> 00:29:59,620
I think the interesting thing about Luke,

608
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:00,740
like Luke's clearly a genius.

609
00:30:00,940 --> 00:30:02,160
Like I love talking to him.

610
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:02,960
I get his newsletter.

611
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,860
I don't think there's really very many people

612
00:30:05,860 --> 00:30:07,620
that are better than him at doing what he does.

613
00:30:07,900 --> 00:30:09,900
But in one of his recent newsletters,

614
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,300
he basically said, you need to start trimming Bitcoin.

615
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:13,960
I think he might have even said,

616
00:30:14,100 --> 00:30:15,000
time to get out of Bitcoin.

617
00:30:15,620 --> 00:30:17,720
Do you think the fact that the bull market

618
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,700
was obviously completely different,

619
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:20,960
if it even was a bull market,

620
00:30:21,180 --> 00:30:23,400
the bear market is going to be completely different.

621
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,800
Do you think if you're selling now on cycle expectations,

622
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:27,540
that's a mistake?

623
00:30:27,700 --> 00:30:28,380
That's my view.

624
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,840
So there's no reason that the four-year cycle has to play out.

625
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,860
A lot of people are going to say that it has played out,

626
00:30:34,900 --> 00:30:36,240
but we are down 35%.

627
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:40,180
My base case for now is,

628
00:30:40,180 --> 00:30:42,140
and I've been saying this for a long time,

629
00:30:42,660 --> 00:30:44,440
there's a model called the true market mean,

630
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:51,640
which is 82k which we tagged overnight so the true market mean again dave puer and i built this in um

631
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:56,740
in coin time economics there's a model called the realized price which is the average on-chain cost

632
00:30:56,740 --> 00:31:01,160
basis per bitcoin but the problem with the realized price we've actually traded below it

633
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:06,320
way back in 2015 way back in 2018 like it's always been we trade below it and that's when

634
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:11,680
bottom formation really starts i was of the view that we shouldn't actually have hit it in 2022

635
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:20,880
And the reason why Satoshi, lost coins, early miners, they're sitting on tremendous unrealized profits, but they're not going to take them because they're lost.

636
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,380
Put the quantum thread aside as a potential for bringing back to life.

637
00:31:24,900 --> 00:31:27,840
Those coins are not going to come back to market in just normal participants.

638
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:34,420
So in order to hit the break-even level of the realized price, you need, let's say Satoshi's up $25 billion.

639
00:31:35,260 --> 00:31:41,660
People who are active in the cycle need to be holding $25 billion of losses to offset it, to get to break even.

640
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:50,720
So the higher the price goes, the larger the market gets, the more those unrealized profits swell, which means the larger the damage has to be for people who are active.

641
00:31:50,780 --> 00:31:52,200
And what happens when people go underwater?

642
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:52,840
They sell.

643
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:53,740
They capitulate out.

644
00:31:53,900 --> 00:31:58,500
And those losses actually get kind of tempered because people respond to the sell-off.

645
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:05,260
So the true market mean uses liveliness, and I won't go into all the details, but it basically zones in on active investors.

646
00:32:05,820 --> 00:32:07,360
the older coins that haven't moved

647
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,220
and have just huge amounts of coin days within them.

648
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,900
We start to discount them the more that they have.

649
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:14,520
And from that perspective,

650
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,020
that's like the average cost basis for active investors.

651
00:32:17,580 --> 00:32:19,200
And it's, statistically speaking,

652
00:32:19,380 --> 00:32:20,880
the price oscillates around this thing.

653
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,200
It is the middle, statistically speaking,

654
00:32:23,700 --> 00:32:25,660
of the entire Bitcoin market.

655
00:32:26,220 --> 00:32:27,080
It's at 82K.

656
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:28,820
You know what else is at 82K?

657
00:32:28,820 --> 00:32:31,300
The average inflow cost basis for the ETFs.

658
00:32:31,660 --> 00:32:34,220
Saylor, who I would say is, broadly speaking,

659
00:32:34,220 --> 00:32:39,600
the average dude in terms of like they buy all the time in a bull uh his cost base is at 74 which

660
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:44,100
is not too far from 82 and the reason it's there is because they've been struggling to buy more

661
00:32:44,100 --> 00:32:47,940
coins which if there's one challenge i'd give to sailor it's like you need a bear market strategy

662
00:32:47,940 --> 00:32:53,460
here because these coins are cheap and for me as a hodler i'm happy as larry right i'm going to keep

663
00:32:53,460 --> 00:32:59,740
buying down here but the average hodler is about 82k the average etf investor is 82k that also

664
00:32:59,740 --> 00:33:04,800
tells you that the ETFs are also kind of the average market participant. The average market

665
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:11,360
participant is around $82,000. If we were to bottom there, it was at $30,000 back in the previous

666
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:16,580
cycle. What did it take to get us below that level? Because we bottomed there in like mid-2021,

667
00:33:16,820 --> 00:33:22,540
then we bounced off it. We came back down to it. We needed Luna to market sell $80,000 Bitcoin in

668
00:33:22,540 --> 00:33:28,700
distress. We needed Three Arrows Capital to be a fraud. We needed Genesis and Celsius and then

669
00:33:28,700 --> 00:33:34,440
finally ftx that's the kind of damage we needed to get below down to the realized price so i actually

670
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,960
lost a hundred dollar bet with my colleague from glass node because like i don't think from first

671
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,380
principles i don't think we get to the realized price i didn't know that fraud was there and that

672
00:33:43,380 --> 00:33:49,940
hundred dollars is worth a whole lot more now bitcoin with it um but for now i unless sailor

673
00:33:49,940 --> 00:33:57,760
implodes i'm not sure where that gfc grade deleveraging comes from that could take us down

674
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,040
to the realized price of 56.

675
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:00,060
Could it happen?

676
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:00,540
Yes.

677
00:34:00,700 --> 00:34:01,720
It's not my base case.

678
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:03,540
So my base case for now

679
00:34:03,540 --> 00:34:05,200
is that we probably hammer out a bottom somewhere.

680
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,780
Like we might tag the 70s.

681
00:34:08,300 --> 00:34:10,060
I think getting down to the 50s is,

682
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,140
you know, Bitcoin's a trillion dollar asset now.

683
00:34:13,340 --> 00:34:14,400
If you have 50K, it's,

684
00:34:14,900 --> 00:34:16,320
you're almost undoing the ETF.

685
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:17,440
So like, can it happen?

686
00:34:17,660 --> 00:34:18,360
Anything can happen.

687
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:19,240
Is it my base case?

688
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:19,660
No.

689
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:21,960
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690
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691
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692
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694
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698
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699
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700
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701
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on all past types the website is mina.b.tc and use code wbd for 10 off i think in a lot of ways

733
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:14,160
the market is far more healthy

734
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:15,120
than it was back in 2022.

735
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:16,400
Like I can't think of,

736
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,520
besides some treasury companies imploding,

737
00:37:18,620 --> 00:37:19,740
anything that could do that.

738
00:37:19,860 --> 00:37:20,740
I don't think there's any,

739
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:22,380
I mean, touch wood.

740
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,040
I don't think there's any like fraudulent businesses

741
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:24,920
in Bitcoin at the moment.

742
00:37:25,020 --> 00:37:27,100
Like it seems like everyone's learned their lesson

743
00:37:27,100 --> 00:37:27,840
from 2022.

744
00:37:28,240 --> 00:37:29,580
And if we have a bear market,

745
00:37:29,780 --> 00:37:31,420
let's just say for argument's sake,

746
00:37:31,460 --> 00:37:33,220
we bought them at the true market mean, 82K.

747
00:37:33,220 --> 00:37:34,700
If we bought them at the true market mean,

748
00:37:34,780 --> 00:37:35,580
it's 35%.

749
00:37:35,580 --> 00:37:37,840
Is everyone going to reset their cycle chart

750
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:39,920
at the same way that they did FTX?

751
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:41,560
At the same way that they did,

752
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,820
and this has been my case for a long time,

753
00:37:44,340 --> 00:37:45,860
I think the bull isn't going to be that,

754
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,000
like we didn't have a blow off,

755
00:37:47,100 --> 00:37:48,980
but generally speaking, the bull market

756
00:37:48,980 --> 00:37:50,240
did exactly what a bull market does.

757
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:51,740
Price go up, old hands sell.

758
00:37:52,260 --> 00:37:53,840
It's how they use things generally play out.

759
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,020
My view was always that the bear was going to break people

760
00:37:57,020 --> 00:37:59,140
because they're not going to know when to reset their chart.

761
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,680
And if we bottom at 35% down

762
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,700
and in six months time we're toying with all time high,

763
00:38:05,700 --> 00:38:08,180
is it a new cycle or is it a super cycle?

764
00:38:08,460 --> 00:38:10,400
Is it a four-year cycle or is it a five-year cycle?

765
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:12,340
And again, this is all speculation,

766
00:38:12,540 --> 00:38:15,380
but I just wonder if you have to be so flexible

767
00:38:15,380 --> 00:38:16,940
in your thinking moving forward.

768
00:38:17,620 --> 00:38:19,040
You've probably seen people sharing,

769
00:38:19,100 --> 00:38:20,920
there's like a big table of all the metrics

770
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,880
that didn't hit zero out of 30 hit their on-chain top.

771
00:38:24,660 --> 00:38:26,840
And it's like, yeah, but that doesn't really matter

772
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:28,740
because there was a tremendous amount of sell side.

773
00:38:29,740 --> 00:38:32,720
When we started talking, I think it was about 113K,

774
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,020
I wrote a piece called On the Cusp.

775
00:38:34,660 --> 00:38:37,660
And On the Cusp is where I sold my MSTR of 300 bucks.

776
00:38:37,660 --> 00:38:39,900
And I said, I think, check the analyst,

777
00:38:40,060 --> 00:38:41,780
who's supposed to be very objective,

778
00:38:42,020 --> 00:38:43,900
said something doesn't smell right here.

779
00:38:44,340 --> 00:38:45,760
We're below the short-term cost basis.

780
00:38:45,860 --> 00:38:47,280
We've failed two all-time high attempts.

781
00:38:47,380 --> 00:38:47,900
Something's wrong.

782
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:49,300
I'm selling my risk position

783
00:38:49,300 --> 00:38:51,440
because I want cash for the road down.

784
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,100
And I started highlighting,

785
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,080
and we were talking about it before that, 95K.

786
00:38:55,900 --> 00:38:59,740
95K is where we got about 60% of all the money underwater.

787
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,340
And I said, look, the road from 115,

788
00:39:02,820 --> 00:39:04,600
we're down around the first line of defense.

789
00:39:05,500 --> 00:39:06,920
100K is the next line of defense.

790
00:39:07,660 --> 00:39:11,900
Once you get down to 95, we're really testing the waters

791
00:39:11,900 --> 00:39:15,220
and the trip from there to the 80s will be swift.

792
00:39:15,580 --> 00:39:19,140
So we've kind of watched this thing devolve over time.

793
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:20,780
And again, no one can predict the future,

794
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,680
but what we can see is where is everyone's cost basis?

795
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,620
And just drawing that line in the sand and saying,

796
00:39:26,700 --> 00:39:28,220
and I called it the bull's last stand.

797
00:39:28,820 --> 00:39:30,680
And when we got to 95, what happened?

798
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:32,140
Straight to 82.

799
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,180
And that's not because I can predict the future.

800
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:35,900
That's just because there's a lot of people

801
00:39:35,900 --> 00:39:41,360
suddenly underwater, we can see all of their cost base and you go, it's a sensitive spot.

802
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,880
It's where people's sentiment is going to shift to, oh shit, we might've just flipped over and I

803
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,880
could be late to this party now. So what's the check on chain take now? Is it that we're going

804
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:55,060
to hammer out a bottom basically where we are? Or do you think we go lower? Yeah. So my base case

805
00:39:55,060 --> 00:40:00,820
for now, there's two elements. One, I do think so for the longest time, I think in 2024, I wrote

806
00:40:00,820 --> 00:40:05,780
the true market mean, wherever that was at the time, 40K or 30K or something. I said, I wrote a

807
00:40:05,780 --> 00:40:10,160
piece called Rethinking Bears. And I said, at some point when the bear shows up, here's the

808
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,740
fundamental reason why I think the true market mean is more likely, which I was describing before,

809
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:19,320
more likely to be that floor level. It's at 82 now. That doesn't mean that we bought them at 82,

810
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:23,420
but that's kind of the realized price. I think we chop around it. It's kind of a center of gravity.

811
00:40:23,420 --> 00:40:29,160
I think the ETFs being there is also a very good confluence. We also have, unfortunately,

812
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,180
in the very, very near term, so probably by the time people will listen to this,

813
00:40:32,180 --> 00:40:37,680
we've probably already seen this there's a ton of people longing the bottom with futures on leverage

814
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:44,740
so what i suspect happens is we probably get a wick we probably tagged seven something but i do

815
00:40:44,740 --> 00:40:58,000
think that gets bought up so i would be very surprised if we go down too far below the 2024 chop zone my base case and again we can only work in scenarios my base case is that 2024 chop you know 70 plus

816
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:00,100
I think that's going to work as support.

817
00:41:00,220 --> 00:41:01,980
I mean, you're going to give me coins at 70K.

818
00:41:02,180 --> 00:41:03,640
I'll think about this in the shower this morning.

819
00:41:04,220 --> 00:41:05,480
If price goes down to 50K,

820
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,960
you can now with a 5K slug buy 0.1 corn.

821
00:41:09,940 --> 00:41:10,360
Give it me.

822
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:11,480
I'm sorry.

823
00:41:11,700 --> 00:41:11,960
I'm sorry.

824
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:12,480
Give it over right now.

825
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:13,940
When you're going to give me five grand

826
00:41:13,940 --> 00:41:15,260
and I can buy 0.1 corn,

827
00:41:15,540 --> 00:41:17,840
suddenly people can start being whole coiners again.

828
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:19,400
I'm sorry, it's too cheap.

829
00:41:19,720 --> 00:41:20,520
It just doesn't make sense.

830
00:41:20,580 --> 00:41:21,440
There's too many people like me.

831
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:22,460
I'm going to step in before that.

832
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,840
So my base case is somewhere between when we've tagged 80.

833
00:41:26,300 --> 00:41:29,100
Could be the low, probably get retested because of futures,

834
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:33,860
but this zone, this air gap between 70 to 80,

835
00:41:34,500 --> 00:41:36,620
I suspect we'll find a base somewhere in there.

836
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:37,520
That would be my base case.

837
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,620
Yeah, I would take that all day, every day.

838
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,000
It's too cheap otherwise.

839
00:41:41,420 --> 00:41:44,640
Have you guys been following this winter mute Binance thing?

840
00:41:45,340 --> 00:41:47,180
No, I'm sure there's bodies out there,

841
00:41:47,180 --> 00:41:47,880
but you know

842
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:48,540
this is the thing

843
00:41:48,540 --> 00:41:49,380
everyone goes looking

844
00:41:49,380 --> 00:41:50,060
for a boogeyman

845
00:41:50,060 --> 00:41:51,240
you know

846
00:41:51,240 --> 00:41:52,040
from my perspective

847
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,140
we broke below

848
00:41:53,140 --> 00:41:53,540
the base

849
00:41:53,540 --> 00:41:53,940
of what I call

850
00:41:53,940 --> 00:41:54,580
the hodler's wall

851
00:41:54,580 --> 00:41:55,720
where all that supply is

852
00:41:55,720 --> 00:41:56,620
a bunch of people

853
00:41:56,620 --> 00:41:57,720
are now scared

854
00:41:57,720 --> 00:41:58,800
that they bought the top

855
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,100
they start responding

856
00:42:00,100 --> 00:42:01,180
there's no support

857
00:42:01,180 --> 00:42:02,100
between there and 85

858
00:42:02,100 --> 00:42:03,600
so you don't think

859
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:04,240
it's down to these

860
00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:04,880
market makers

861
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,280
so just for anyone

862
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,120
listening who's not aware

863
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:07,660
like the

864
00:42:07,660 --> 00:42:09,260
I've not been following

865
00:42:09,260 --> 00:42:09,820
this super closely

866
00:42:09,820 --> 00:42:10,720
but from my understanding

867
00:42:10,720 --> 00:42:11,160
it's that

868
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:12,520
when crypto

869
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:13,740
like the broader

870
00:42:13,740 --> 00:42:14,260
crypto market

871
00:42:14,260 --> 00:42:14,940
had that big crash

872
00:42:14,940 --> 00:42:15,240
a few

873
00:42:15,240 --> 00:42:16,240
like a couple months ago

874
00:42:16,240 --> 00:42:21,340
um binance's api stopped working for winter mute and they lost i think billions of dollars in it

875
00:42:21,340 --> 00:42:28,980
and so winter mute are now suing binance i believe um and like one of the theories that i've heard is

876
00:42:28,980 --> 00:42:34,040
that market makers are like pulling liquidity from the bitcoin market i don't know if you yeah i mean

877
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:39,180
i'm sure all of that's true i think generally speaking there's 50 different things that are

878
00:42:39,180 --> 00:42:44,220
going on right so they all have different components uh but you know from my perspective

879
00:42:44,220 --> 00:42:48,300
we got below 95. We got below the bulls last stand. That was my thesis. Next thing you know,

880
00:42:48,340 --> 00:42:53,020
we're at 80K. Whatever the cause, the thesis was, there's too many people who are underwater.

881
00:42:53,780 --> 00:42:57,000
Keep it simple. So you talked a little bit before about who's buying here,

882
00:42:57,140 --> 00:43:02,940
because like someone's buying in massive size, volumes are high. Who do you think that is,

883
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,300
if you had to speculate? Because you mentioned before banks, I could believe that. I think,

884
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,700
especially in the US, the banks are going to be stepping into Bitcoin in a pretty big way over the

885
00:43:10,700 --> 00:43:14,400
next few years. I think they'll start custodying Bitcoin, offering loans and all this kind of stuff.

886
00:43:15,300 --> 00:43:19,920
Who do you think that might be? It is very interesting because it's not happening via

887
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:24,000
the ETFs. That to me is the most intriguing part of it, which also means we don't know.

888
00:43:24,240 --> 00:43:29,460
Yeah. Right. So you can never know the buyers until later on. But what I suspect we will see,

889
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,320
long-term holder supply takes five months till a coin reaches that level.

890
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,700
The amount of buying that's occurred over the last six months, so we're probably getting close

891
00:43:37,700 --> 00:43:42,620
to it. I would say that long-term supply starts bottoming soon and starts moving significantly

892
00:43:42,620 --> 00:43:48,760
higher. If it breaks to a new all-time high, this is the only way we can really speculate

893
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:53,120
about this stuff. It feels to me like it's got to be banks and it could be sovereigns because

894
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:59,680
it's in the spot market, which is a strategic position. And the size, the size of it is just

895
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,820
extraordinary. And how do we know it's big? Because we saw the selling. The sell side was

896
00:44:03,820 --> 00:44:08,860
massive like three billion two billion dollars a day i'm not bringing that in i'm talking about

897
00:44:08,860 --> 00:44:13,920
being happy with a 5k clip you know what i mean so like the average investor is not bringing

898
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:21,000
tens of billions of dollars a week and it's in spot markets yeah feels feels meaningful like i'm

899
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,300
buying here but the market doesn't care that i'm buying here we want i want to know who the big

900
00:44:24,300 --> 00:44:29,120
buyers are so uh yeah no very interesting one sold bitcoin is one sold bitcoin doesn't matter

901
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:33,760
who's selling it that's why we use that six month cutoff because at least it's a sold bitcoin that

902
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:37,420
we know wasn't just transacted day to day and part of the noise.

903
00:44:37,540 --> 00:44:41,960
Well, all these long terms that sold at above 100, they could buy back in.

904
00:44:42,340 --> 00:44:42,760
And they will.

905
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:47,080
They just made the best decision of their lives to sell at 120, 110.

906
00:44:47,420 --> 00:44:48,860
Now they're going, oh, okay.

907
00:44:49,180 --> 00:44:51,540
I just clean that profit, jump back in slowly.

908
00:44:51,780 --> 00:44:54,680
Props to Mr. 80,000 Bitcoin who sold the Pico top.

909
00:44:54,860 --> 00:44:57,000
He literally could just have a bid now.

910
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:57,440
What a go.

911
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:58,300
Why wouldn't you?

912
00:44:58,580 --> 00:45:00,500
You can now rotate right back in.

913
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,140
That sell side could literally just go, okay, thank you.

914
00:45:03,140 --> 00:45:09,600
imagine the tax bill on 9 billion oh my god that's a good problem you need a legal

915
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:14,500
i always think about like the prep you need to sell that much bitcoin would be a nightmare

916
00:45:14,500 --> 00:45:18,480
like you're just sitting there with spreadsheets and just talking to accountants and being like how

917
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:22,400
how do i get like i need to find the right otc i need to write find the right desk

918
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:27,160
how do i even sell this thing i mean is it hard though or is it literally just like

919
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:32,980
alex thorn i'm gonna send you loads of bitcoin selling to you with tax man yeah thinking about

920
00:45:32,980 --> 00:45:35,460
the tax part, I think that's what's really hard.

921
00:45:35,460 --> 00:45:37,180
If you think about it, if you're cashing out that much,

922
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:38,700
you're setting up an estate.

923
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:40,080
That's a job.

924
00:45:40,180 --> 00:45:41,060
That's like a whole thing.

925
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:42,580
And there's a lot of people who are like,

926
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:45,020
why didn't they sell the first time we got to 120K?

927
00:45:45,100 --> 00:45:47,700
It's like, because these decisions take time.

928
00:45:48,020 --> 00:45:48,780
It's a big job.

929
00:45:49,220 --> 00:45:50,400
It's a huge job.

930
00:45:50,740 --> 00:45:51,440
A lot of stuff to do.

931
00:45:51,660 --> 00:45:51,840
Yeah.

932
00:45:52,140 --> 00:45:54,000
Alex Thorne is the reason for this bear market.

933
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:55,680
Cheers, Alex.

934
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:56,720
Thank you, Alex.

935
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,920
Obviously, while Bitcoin's been crashing,

936
00:46:01,240 --> 00:46:03,760
It's not like the whole macro world has been super healthy.

937
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:05,580
Like everything's going down at the moment.

938
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,040
I don't know what gold's at the moment.

939
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,740
But how much of that do you think is playing into this?

940
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:10,880
Oh, macro is a huge part of it.

941
00:46:10,940 --> 00:46:14,020
So I would generally just go and listen to your podcast with Lynn,

942
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:15,460
who's going to have far more of a...

943
00:46:15,460 --> 00:46:16,880
I consider myself a macro tourist,

944
00:46:17,060 --> 00:46:18,660
so I certainly rely on other people to think about it.

945
00:46:18,660 --> 00:46:20,240
But I also like considering these ideas.

946
00:46:21,380 --> 00:46:24,580
My general view is that liquidity just hasn't been ripping.

947
00:46:25,100 --> 00:46:26,260
There's been a whole bunch of things,

948
00:46:26,380 --> 00:46:28,360
TGA, sucking liquidity and all that stuff.

949
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:35,780
um my kind of if i was to give it a general description we're at the very tail end of all

950
00:46:35,780 --> 00:46:41,000
the money that got pumped in in covid and it's now as alec was saying trying to just find the

951
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:46,480
place where it's being treated best and it's a bit of a dog-eat-dog world uh i think actually

952
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:51,280
if you look at the way that the bitcoin crypto world has operated this cycle there's been bitcoin

953
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:57,140
that's run and like the occasional pump somewhere right meme coins meme well they had their time in

954
00:46:57,140 --> 00:47:01,080
the sun then what do you hear about them anymore yeah um solana had a time in the sun then it's

955
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:06,060
who cares like eth got there with like 50 bucks of its all-time line is now in a horrendous bear

956
00:47:06,060 --> 00:47:10,560
market so there's all these things where like it's money just kind of rotates so if you if you think

957
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:16,720
about if you're awash with liquidity rising tide lifts all boats yeah if there's a limited amount

958
00:47:16,720 --> 00:47:22,100
and it's starting to get scarce this is also why i think and txmc and i have a very same opinion

959
00:47:22,100 --> 00:47:27,100
here that altcoins were a zerp phenomenon yeah we are now we there's no narratives left there's no

960
00:47:27,100 --> 00:47:32,240
reason for anyone to like be bullish on this stuff so they're just kind of chasing that final pump

961
00:47:32,240 --> 00:47:37,480
everyone's now decided the z cash is because like we can't pump all the tokens we can't pump 10

962
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:42,440
tokens let's all just get a marketing team and just pump one it's just a vc company it's a vc

963
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,520
company so everyone just goes for the one thing because like at least we can pump one coin right

964
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:50,400
can we do that have we got enough money left for that so i really think we're at like the tail end

965
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,580
and also interest rates aren't zero.

966
00:47:52,900 --> 00:47:53,080
Yeah.

967
00:47:53,240 --> 00:47:56,980
And that's a hard, like, it's not a hard money environment.

968
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,940
The dollar's still a shit coin, but it is a hard-earned money.

969
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,620
So as a result of higher interest rates,

970
00:48:02,700 --> 00:48:05,640
people have to be more, you know, they have to think about.

971
00:48:05,740 --> 00:48:07,520
I mean, if interest rates went to 20%,

972
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:09,400
you better believe that people would only be buying stuff

973
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:10,020
that's worthwhile.

974
00:48:10,180 --> 00:48:10,360
Yeah.

975
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,340
It's the same idea of moving to a Bitcoin standard.

976
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:13,680
People are only going to invest their Bitcoin

977
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,120
if it's a good idea.

978
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,620
So in a harder money world where it's not Zerp,

979
00:48:18,620 --> 00:48:23,620
fart coin doesn't make as much sense so i think people are going to start having to think that way

980
00:48:23,620 --> 00:48:27,700
i think when i was speaking to lynn she had a load of interesting stuff that um i'd not really

981
00:48:27,700 --> 00:48:34,320
considered before so she first of all was talking about like liquidity potentially drying up she

982
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:39,140
actually said it's not that bad a spot right now but like qt is coming to an end um and she was

983
00:48:39,140 --> 00:48:45,220
talking about this idea of qqe but following gdp um obviously in bitcoin people like to talk about

984
00:48:45,220 --> 00:48:50,660
these huge print events. And if we're not going into that world, and instead it's just going to

985
00:48:50,660 --> 00:48:56,340
track GDP at 3%, 4%, or whatever that is, I think that's going to change Bitcoin's market dynamic

986
00:48:56,340 --> 00:49:01,480
completely. And I think it might look more like 2025 for a longer period of time.

987
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:07,640
Potentially, but at the same time. So I do think that everything about rate of change. So a lot of

988
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:12,520
people like to look at absolute value, but in reality, the rate of change is in most things,

989
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:16,320
engineering systems in markets, the whole lot, rate of change is actually more important. So

990
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:21,740
we haven't seen an explosive growth in liquidity. But if you think about what is likely coming down

991
00:49:21,740 --> 00:49:26,100
the road, QT comes to an end. So at the margin, the rate of change is that's going to be

992
00:49:26,100 --> 00:49:32,520
less restrictive. They're going to have to go back to balance sheet expansion. And my general thesis,

993
00:49:32,780 --> 00:49:38,540
like in the macro world, I don't have the skills and the chops to get into the plumbing and

994
00:49:38,540 --> 00:49:40,800
understand sofa rates and all of that.

995
00:49:41,340 --> 00:49:43,000
I certainly, I mean, we work with the Bitcoin layer.

996
00:49:43,180 --> 00:49:45,020
We rely on Nick for a lot of those types of things.

997
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:45,780
Nick's the guy for that, yeah.

998
00:49:45,780 --> 00:49:46,820
Nick's the guy for that, Linz for that.

999
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:48,720
Luke, understanding the plumbing.

1000
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:50,500
But I'm just, I'm a simple dude.

1001
00:49:51,260 --> 00:49:53,340
I just look at gold, and I think gold and Bitcoin

1002
00:49:53,340 --> 00:49:55,920
are two very special assets because their prices

1003
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:57,780
are not just a price, they're actually information.

1004
00:49:58,580 --> 00:50:00,880
When you see something happen on a Sunday night,

1005
00:50:01,720 --> 00:50:04,100
you see all the TradFi guys posting the Bitcoin shopping,

1006
00:50:04,220 --> 00:50:05,600
like, look at shitty store of value this is.

1007
00:50:05,620 --> 00:50:07,660
I'm like, that's your equity portfolio tomorrow, sir.

1008
00:50:07,660 --> 00:50:10,780
what you're looking at is a lens into what's coming down the road.

1009
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,480
So gold doesn't move until it wants to move.

1010
00:50:15,580 --> 00:50:17,020
And when it moves, you should pay attention.

1011
00:50:17,140 --> 00:50:18,320
And it's clearly moved.

1012
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,400
The most overheated it's been since 1979

1013
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,640
in terms of distance from the 200-week moving average,

1014
00:50:24,700 --> 00:50:25,500
no matter how you want to cut it,

1015
00:50:26,380 --> 00:50:28,340
it's telling us that the system is bankrupt

1016
00:50:28,340 --> 00:50:30,280
and we have to move to a new reserve asset.

1017
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,400
That is a very important signal.

1018
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,500
In my world, gold tells me where we're going.

1019
00:50:36,460 --> 00:50:38,660
Bitcoin is much more sensitive to the near term.

1020
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,880
And the near term, the rate of change of liquidity hasn't been great.

1021
00:50:42,340 --> 00:50:44,440
It may actually be kind of hairy moving forward.

1022
00:50:44,720 --> 00:50:47,580
You get any weakness in equity market, that falls off.

1023
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,460
Suddenly collateral goes down, bond volatility goes up,

1024
00:50:50,460 --> 00:50:51,760
and everything just gets squeezed.

1025
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,400
That doesn't mean that the follow-up is not going to be tremendously on the side.

1026
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,980
So I do believe there is a convergence between Bitcoin and gold that shows up.

1027
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,280
But I think Bitcoin goes the road to get there.

1028
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:04,940
And it's been telling you that the equity market probably is due for a pullback as well,

1029
00:51:04,940 --> 00:51:07,040
kind of front runs that liquidity profile.

1030
00:51:07,220 --> 00:51:11,500
So my base case is that Bitcoin will probably lead us back out of this thing

1031
00:51:11,500 --> 00:51:14,680
when all the equity guys are going, shit, call J-PAL, it's all over.

1032
00:51:15,100 --> 00:51:18,360
And Bitcoin's going to start bottoming out and moving and say, here it comes.

1033
00:51:18,860 --> 00:51:21,360
Do you know one of my favorite, this might be a really stupid take,

1034
00:51:21,500 --> 00:51:23,680
but one thing that I quite often watch is,

1035
00:51:24,020 --> 00:51:27,260
so UK markets opened five hours before New York.

1036
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,580
And it seems like for those first five hours,

1037
00:51:30,740 --> 00:51:33,120
all that those markets are doing is basically guessing

1038
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:34,860
what the US markets are going to do when they open.

1039
00:51:34,940 --> 00:51:36,200
So there's no signal there.

1040
00:51:36,260 --> 00:51:38,000
It's like, we think it's going to go down

1041
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,140
so everything goes red or whatever.

1042
00:51:39,660 --> 00:51:41,200
But if you watch that happen

1043
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:42,620
and then you compare it to Bitcoin,

1044
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:44,520
like Bitcoin is actually the signal.

1045
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:47,720
And I don't know why the people trading UK equities

1046
00:51:47,720 --> 00:51:49,240
aren't just looking at what Bitcoin's doing

1047
00:51:49,240 --> 00:51:50,560
and be like, today's going to be a green day.

1048
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:51,800
Absolutely. No, I fully agree.

1049
00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:53,100
And like on Mondays,

1050
00:51:53,100 --> 00:51:54,660
I often see the Australian stock market

1051
00:51:54,660 --> 00:51:55,400
doesn't know what to do

1052
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:56,680
because it's been the weekend.

1053
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:57,580
And then on Tuesday,

1054
00:51:58,200 --> 00:51:59,600
America's done something in Australia.

1055
00:51:59,700 --> 00:52:00,880
It's like, oh yeah, we got to sell off as well.

1056
00:52:01,140 --> 00:52:01,780
Like something wrong.

1057
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,660
So it very much, it's a response type factor.

1058
00:52:04,660 --> 00:52:08,140
I love the idea that Bitcoin is basically just a global prediction market.

1059
00:52:08,740 --> 00:52:09,620
It's the index.

1060
00:52:09,860 --> 00:52:12,380
And I think that is coming more and more into people's view.

1061
00:52:12,820 --> 00:52:15,340
Like, again, let's think about where we are right now.

1062
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:20,160
We're at a point where sovereigns are taking positions in Bitcoin, right?

1063
00:52:20,240 --> 00:52:21,600
We're 16 years into this experiment.

1064
00:52:22,380 --> 00:52:24,880
We don't have to convince anybody that Bitcoin is going to stick around.

1065
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:31,100
Even the bears that are out there are like, okay, now it's starting to get a bit undervalued versus gold, right?

1066
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:32,380
It's probably going to come back.

1067
00:52:32,380 --> 00:52:34,440
it's a cockroach that keeps coming back

1068
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:35,780
from these 80% drawdowns.

1069
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:36,900
Like, oh, it might go down further.

1070
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:38,140
It's like, yeah, but they also know

1071
00:52:38,140 --> 00:52:39,880
that they should probably buy that dip too.

1072
00:52:40,240 --> 00:52:42,060
I think even Andy Constant bought this dip.

1073
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:42,440
Yes.

1074
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:44,860
No, even guys who don't like it,

1075
00:52:45,340 --> 00:52:46,800
like Peter Schiff,

1076
00:52:47,380 --> 00:52:48,700
eventually he's going to realize

1077
00:52:48,700 --> 00:52:49,620
that he should probably just,

1078
00:52:50,260 --> 00:52:51,080
probably should just actually.

1079
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:51,760
And a couple of,

1080
00:52:51,940 --> 00:52:53,120
or one of our orange subscribers

1081
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:54,320
said something very interesting,

1082
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:55,240
which is,

1083
00:52:55,420 --> 00:52:58,400
I don't care about Bitcoin tops at all.

1084
00:52:58,520 --> 00:52:59,420
I care about the bottoms.

1085
00:52:59,960 --> 00:53:00,520
That's all.

1086
00:53:00,580 --> 00:53:02,320
And these guys are like serious

1087
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:06,480
serious traders and so that's a really interesting way to start thinking about bitcoin especially as

1088
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:12,880
a hodler investor where is the bot like as long as the floor keeps rising over the long arc of time

1089
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:17,680
that is actually the success metric of bitcoin like there's always a fair value of bitcoin that

1090
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:22,080
and the price is like oscillating around it up and down up and down i will kind of a bit too high

1091
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:26,480
this is the way i frame it in my mind and now we're just finding that fair value and all the smart

1092
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:31,040
money they literally just go where's the bottom that's all i want to know i just want to know when

1093
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:35,440
And finally, after this really human organic hype cycle comes over

1094
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:37,180
and they're finally back at that fair value,

1095
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:38,940
which Bitcoin should probably have just been priced

1096
00:53:38,940 --> 00:53:40,220
at that level this whole time anyway,

1097
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:41,880
if it was like not a human market,

1098
00:53:42,620 --> 00:53:43,560
that's all they care about.

1099
00:53:43,720 --> 00:53:45,720
So it's super interesting to think of that way,

1100
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:47,980
which is why this bottom formation period

1101
00:53:47,980 --> 00:53:49,280
is going to be like super exciting.

1102
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,960
I'm super keen to just watch this bottom happen

1103
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:53,880
and be hammered out

1104
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:55,880
because that is the fair value of Bitcoin

1105
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:57,660
that is now being reset.

1106
00:53:58,300 --> 00:54:00,100
So we're in like a new chapter now.

1107
00:54:00,100 --> 00:54:02,480
And this is where you start thinking about the psychology

1108
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:04,400
of resetting cycles. We were talking about this

1109
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,620
morning, there's this process where everybody

1110
00:54:06,620 --> 00:54:08,340
over the next couple of days,

1111
00:54:09,300 --> 00:54:10,540
you were using the term, it's going to

1112
00:54:10,540 --> 00:54:12,680
have to grieve this red candle.

1113
00:54:12,780 --> 00:54:14,400
We need to grieve a little bit. So people are going to grieve,

1114
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:16,240
but even just having this... What does grieve mean?

1115
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,380
Go sideways for a bit? No, no, no. People need to

1116
00:54:18,380 --> 00:54:19,860
come to terms with the fact that we're 80K. Personally.

1117
00:54:20,340 --> 00:54:22,420
Yeah, yeah, they're going to come to terms with it. So I think

1118
00:54:22,420 --> 00:54:24,480
people are going to go through that process. I mean, even just

1119
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,460
having this conversation, I'm like, fuck, I'm actually

1120
00:54:26,460 --> 00:54:28,460
more bullish than I was this morning, and I bought the dip this morning.

1121
00:54:28,460 --> 00:54:32,380
I don't know. When you see a 30% down and you've invested and been watching this thing and like

1122
00:54:32,380 --> 00:54:36,880
been a fan and really excited, and then you kind of get denied and then Thanksgiving's coming up,

1123
00:54:37,220 --> 00:54:40,680
Christmas is coming up. You have to see your family that you've been bullish to.

1124
00:54:41,180 --> 00:54:43,800
You all just, you have this heavy, heavy heart.

1125
00:54:43,980 --> 00:54:45,920
You sold them on it last year at a hundred and something K.

1126
00:54:46,180 --> 00:54:50,720
Exactly. And you have this heavy heart, like especially men. We don't take the time to just

1127
00:54:50,720 --> 00:54:56,480
sit and feel that. Oh yeah. I kind of have to like feel the loss and like breathe through it,

1128
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,560
talk to some friends, but you need to do that ASAP

1129
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,080
instead of sitting on X and just watching all these charts.

1130
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:03,620
Because every single person who was saying

1131
00:55:03,620 --> 00:55:06,060
it's going to go to 250K is now calling a bottom

1132
00:55:06,060 --> 00:55:07,120
and calling something.

1133
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:07,780
Calling for 50.

1134
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:08,840
We're going to go straight back up.

1135
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:09,240
It's fine.

1136
00:55:09,300 --> 00:55:10,500
We're going to be 100K in no time.

1137
00:55:10,580 --> 00:55:12,020
You need to stop looking at all that.

1138
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:13,200
You need to grieve a little bit.

1139
00:55:13,300 --> 00:55:15,160
I think, yeah, and it's okay.

1140
00:55:15,380 --> 00:55:15,860
It sucks.

1141
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:16,500
It's okay.

1142
00:55:16,940 --> 00:55:17,620
It's a new chapter.

1143
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:18,620
It's going to be exciting.

1144
00:55:18,900 --> 00:55:20,320
And that's the thing, bear markets.

1145
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:22,480
And I think the correct way to think about

1146
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,280
this current market structure is to think about it

1147
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:24,960
as a bear market.

1148
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:28,720
and do not anchor to bear market must go down 75%

1149
00:55:28,720 --> 00:55:30,320
or must go down 55%.

1150
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:31,920
Drop those type of metrics.

1151
00:55:32,740 --> 00:55:35,380
Bear markets are things that reset investor expectations.

1152
00:55:36,220 --> 00:55:40,240
I think most people, after we hammer out this floor,

1153
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,640
will have reset their expectation to say,

1154
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,020
okay, we're probably not going to a million dollars

1155
00:55:45,020 --> 00:55:46,780
on the fourth year of this halving cycle.

1156
00:55:47,180 --> 00:55:49,120
People are going to have reset expectations.

1157
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,220
In fact, people are going to probably have expectations

1158
00:55:51,220 --> 00:55:53,300
that go too far the other way.

1159
00:55:54,060 --> 00:55:55,140
Everyone's going to converge

1160
00:55:55,140 --> 00:55:57,360
and you'll start seeing those dudes on Reddit

1161
00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:58,640
being like, I've sold everything.

1162
00:55:58,820 --> 00:56:00,480
I'll buy it back at 12K, right?

1163
00:56:00,500 --> 00:56:02,940
That's what we saw back down there at 15K

1164
00:56:02,940 --> 00:56:03,760
when FTX blew up.

1165
00:56:03,940 --> 00:56:06,880
When you start seeing everyone over-correcting

1166
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:07,780
in the wrong direction,

1167
00:56:08,300 --> 00:56:09,820
we have now reset expectations,

1168
00:56:10,140 --> 00:56:11,680
which is the job of bear markets.

1169
00:56:12,140 --> 00:56:14,220
Probably a few treasury companies have to puke as well,

1170
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:15,520
but that's a different topic.

1171
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:17,160
Do you know, can you remember

1172
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:18,900
what we closed the year at in 2024?

1173
00:56:19,780 --> 00:56:20,640
What, like, the final price of Bitcoin?

1174
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,480
I guess it was 92 something, I think.

1175
00:56:23,620 --> 00:56:23,880
Okay.

1176
00:56:23,980 --> 00:56:25,900
Do you know the thing that I'm most concerned about

1177
00:56:25,900 --> 00:56:28,500
is that HODL's green, green, green, red is wrong.

1178
00:56:28,660 --> 00:56:30,880
We need to get above 92K by the end of the year

1179
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:31,900
to keep that meme alive.

1180
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:33,280
If we get above 92K,

1181
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:34,800
I mean, that's a pretty significant bounce.

1182
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,420
I mean, again, 95 is a very important level.

1183
00:56:37,720 --> 00:56:39,740
The Bulls have a lot of work to repair this price chart.

1184
00:56:39,780 --> 00:56:40,260
No question.

1185
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:41,760
Not impossible,

1186
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:45,340
but I'm not anticipating all-time highs this year.

1187
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:46,300
I know some people-

1188
00:56:46,300 --> 00:56:46,980
Oh, no, me neither.

1189
00:56:47,140 --> 00:56:47,300
No.

1190
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,140
However, I also wouldn't be-

1191
00:56:50,140 --> 00:56:51,500
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised.

1192
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,220
I mean, my base case has been the true market mean.

1193
00:56:53,300 --> 00:56:54,920
Now, again, true market mean, 82K,

1194
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,220
that doesn't mean that's like the wick of the bottom.

1195
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,200
We've historically traded below it,

1196
00:56:59,220 --> 00:57:01,780
but that is the zone where investors

1197
00:57:01,780 --> 00:57:03,420
are going to be so sensitive

1198
00:57:03,420 --> 00:57:05,280
that they're going to have to reconnect.

1199
00:57:05,540 --> 00:57:07,300
So if you think about an ETF investor,

1200
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,500
they've been DCAing since they went live.

1201
00:57:10,140 --> 00:57:12,620
They are now underwater or at their cost basis.

1202
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:14,100
They now have a decision to make.

1203
00:57:14,540 --> 00:57:15,380
Do I still like Bitcoin?

1204
00:57:15,380 --> 00:57:17,540
I liked it at 95 and 100 and 110.

1205
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:19,260
And I liked it at 70.

1206
00:57:19,260 --> 00:57:20,300
and I liked it at 45.

1207
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:22,020
Do I still like it?

1208
00:57:22,180 --> 00:57:23,160
And if the answer is yes,

1209
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:25,680
we'll start seeing the ETF outflows slow.

1210
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:29,180
We'll start seeing realized profits on chain slowing,

1211
00:57:29,300 --> 00:57:29,980
which we're seeing already.

1212
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:31,620
We'll see the people who bought the top

1213
00:57:31,620 --> 00:57:32,780
and don't have the conviction,

1214
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,440
realize losses will spike higher.

1215
00:57:34,500 --> 00:57:35,660
We saw a billion dollars yesterday.

1216
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:37,480
I'm sure it's higher today.

1217
00:57:38,380 --> 00:57:41,800
We'll start seeing these signs of like a reset.

1218
00:57:42,180 --> 00:57:43,620
People who bought high are going to get out.

1219
00:57:43,980 --> 00:57:46,040
The people who bought high and kind of don't care

1220
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:46,920
are going to hodl.

1221
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:48,460
Long-term supply will start climbing.

1222
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,880
We'll probably start seeing bear market formations,

1223
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:54,060
I think, hammering out now.

1224
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:59,500
I thought back in 2022, the 17K,

1225
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:01,540
the first time we got them, three arrows blew up.

1226
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:04,020
That's when I think bottom formation started.

1227
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:06,900
And every metric I look at says that's when

1228
00:58:06,900 --> 00:58:07,900
bottom formation started.

1229
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,260
I have a feeling that this might be,

1230
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,060
and perhaps with that wick to just get rid

1231
00:58:13,060 --> 00:58:14,980
of all the leverage, I want to see all the degenerate

1232
00:58:14,980 --> 00:58:16,480
leverage guys get washed out first.

1233
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:19,480
I have a feeling somewhat similar to that.

1234
00:58:19,580 --> 00:58:21,220
We still went down lower because of FTX,

1235
00:58:21,660 --> 00:58:23,460
but it was like down sideways

1236
00:58:23,460 --> 00:58:24,260
and then straight back up.

1237
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:25,240
It was like a hyper extension

1238
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:27,200
and a lot of buying happened there.

1239
00:58:27,260 --> 00:58:28,380
But bottom formation,

1240
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:30,500
I don't think we're too far away

1241
00:58:30,500 --> 00:58:32,940
from starting to hammer out that flaw.

1242
00:58:33,020 --> 00:58:33,860
That's my base case.

1243
00:58:33,940 --> 00:58:35,320
Again, base case is just base case,

1244
00:58:35,380 --> 00:58:36,100
but that's where I sit at the moment.

1245
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:37,680
Based on nothing analytical,

1246
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:39,720
I think we might be getting close to the bottom

1247
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:40,720
just because I've started seeing

1248
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,180
the flood of texts come in from people.

1249
00:58:42,180 --> 00:58:43,520
I actually got my favorite one yesterday

1250
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:44,320
from one of my friends.

1251
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:45,780
He's been in Bitcoin for a little while,

1252
00:58:45,780 --> 00:58:47,680
but he's not like a full-on Bitcoiner.

1253
00:58:47,900 --> 00:58:49,000
I just got a text from him saying,

1254
00:58:49,140 --> 00:58:49,940
why Bitcoin cheap?

1255
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:52,780
I think when you start seeing that,

1256
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,160
you're probably getting towards the bottom,

1257
00:58:55,260 --> 00:58:56,440
at least from a sentiment perspective.

1258
00:58:56,460 --> 00:58:56,980
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

1259
00:58:57,180 --> 00:58:59,800
And bear markets aren't a drawdown percentage.

1260
00:59:00,220 --> 00:59:01,780
They're not anything other than

1261
00:59:01,780 --> 00:59:03,320
resetting investor expectations.

1262
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:05,120
What resets expectations?

1263
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:06,880
People flying high

1264
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:09,380
and then being brought right back down to reality.

1265
00:59:09,500 --> 00:59:10,940
Once your feet are on the ground,

1266
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:13,780
you then go, okay, we're at 80K.

1267
00:59:13,860 --> 00:59:15,220
I'm going to accept that we're at 80K.

1268
00:59:15,780 --> 00:59:17,780
you're telling me if we go down to 50k,

1269
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,380
I can buy 0.1 with a 5k slug?

1270
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:22,200
I don't think we go there.

1271
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:23,660
So therefore, am I happy with 60?

1272
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:24,740
Am I happy with 70?

1273
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:26,760
Am I happy to start just like DCAing now

1274
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:27,560
and like taking nibbles?

1275
00:59:27,660 --> 00:59:29,520
Like you start making decisions accordingly

1276
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:31,640
once you have just come back to reality

1277
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:33,520
and said, well, look, we're not at 100k anymore.

1278
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:35,040
So one thing's for sure.

1279
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:36,500
The top may be in,

1280
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:37,980
but we're not at the top right now.

1281
00:59:38,220 --> 00:59:38,320
Yeah.

1282
00:59:38,460 --> 00:59:40,540
Once people start doing the calculations

1283
00:59:40,540 --> 00:59:41,560
to figure out their net worth,

1284
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:42,460
that's normally a sign

1285
00:59:42,460 --> 00:59:44,020
that we might be getting too close to the top.

1286
00:59:44,020 --> 00:59:48,420
Well, I mean, for me, I knew that the gold had hit its top of 4,300.

1287
00:59:48,780 --> 00:59:49,000
Why?

1288
00:59:49,420 --> 00:59:53,800
Because I updated my precious metals spreadsheet three times in a single day, right?

1289
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:55,800
Normally, I update it once a week at most.

1290
00:59:55,900 --> 00:59:56,380
Did you sell any?

1291
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:57,560
No, I didn't.

1292
00:59:57,620 --> 00:59:59,140
And the main reason is a tax thing.

1293
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:00,860
I still think the gold's going to have a good year.

1294
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,480
So for me, it just wasn't, it's not a good year for me to sell the gold.

1295
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:05,320
I thought about it for sure.

1296
01:00:06,140 --> 01:00:09,440
I'm actually kind of thinking about like, even can I make the tax work?

1297
01:00:09,460 --> 01:00:11,700
Because I like would rotate the gold into Bitcoin now.

1298
01:00:11,780 --> 01:00:13,180
So I'm actually playing around with that idea.

1299
01:00:13,660 --> 01:00:14,580
That's certainly where I sit,

1300
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:16,940
but I knew that it was the top for the meantime

1301
01:00:16,940 --> 01:00:19,220
because I changed my spreadsheet three times.

1302
01:00:19,260 --> 01:00:20,700
I'm like, that's it, it's over.

1303
01:00:21,220 --> 01:00:23,740
So going, like there'll be a lot of people out there

1304
01:00:23,740 --> 01:00:24,420
panicking at the moment.

1305
01:00:24,420 --> 01:00:24,640
Sure.

1306
01:00:25,100 --> 01:00:27,020
What would your kind of message to them be?

1307
01:00:27,460 --> 01:00:28,860
So I think really you got to just,

1308
01:00:29,620 --> 01:00:31,480
why are you here in the first place, right?

1309
01:00:32,300 --> 01:00:35,560
Most often your expectations don't align

1310
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:36,380
with your timeframe.

1311
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,020
So a lot of people who buy

1312
01:00:39,020 --> 01:00:42,280
and then the price goes down straight away feel bad,

1313
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:48,000
but you have to remember who did you buy that for when i'm stacking sats i'm buying them for like

1314
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:54,380
my future self in many many years i'm buying them for my son who's you know 10 weeks old i didn't

1315
01:00:54,380 --> 01:00:59,240
know you said you had a son publicly no no no so i'm 10 week old boy at home um congratulations

1316
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:03,780
he's gonna be 18 it's the best fucking thing ever isn't it it is no it totally is so he's gonna be

1317
01:01:03,780 --> 01:01:09,120
18 before he starts seeing any of those sats i'm like if i'm buying an 80k 82k and it goes to 70

1318
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,120
Where is it going to be when he's 18 years old?

1319
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:13,120
Substantially higher.

1320
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:24,920
We talked about this when we were moving our retirement fund across to Bitcoin That was the case It like okay I going to retire in 30 years I going to need this in 30 years Where the hell is Bitcoin going to be in 30 years time Much higher

1321
01:01:25,380 --> 01:01:25,500
Yeah.

1322
01:01:26,020 --> 01:01:27,860
I mean, I do the same thing.

1323
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:31,920
Since the day my daughter was born, she has a DCA that just hits every week.

1324
01:01:31,920 --> 01:01:37,340
And like, if you're buying Bitcoin for that long term, just who cares about this?

1325
01:01:37,460 --> 01:01:37,720
Exactly.

1326
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:43,180
So I think first things first, just accept what has already happened, right?

1327
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:44,340
Go through the grieving process.

1328
01:01:44,500 --> 01:01:46,400
If you bought the top, it's okay.

1329
01:01:46,540 --> 01:01:47,300
There'll be many tops.

1330
01:01:47,540 --> 01:01:48,800
There's always many tops in Bitcoin.

1331
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:50,500
And you have to then make, I think,

1332
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:51,960
really the right way to frame this up,

1333
01:01:52,500 --> 01:01:53,680
no one can predict the future,

1334
01:01:54,420 --> 01:01:55,540
but if you prepare for it,

1335
01:01:55,620 --> 01:01:58,460
like I've been talking about this 82K level ad nauseum

1336
01:01:58,460 --> 01:02:00,160
when we're up at 100-something,

1337
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,020
and it seems completely irrational to get there,

1338
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:05,380
but the idea is that by the time we get there,

1339
01:02:05,500 --> 01:02:07,120
we've already, like, our subscribers

1340
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:10,060
have already mentally processed it.

1341
01:02:10,380 --> 01:02:12,580
So the grieving period for a lot of people

1342
01:02:12,580 --> 01:02:13,700
who have no idea what's going on

1343
01:02:13,700 --> 01:02:17,460
is going to be months. And what's going to happen is they're going to get increasingly bearish as

1344
01:02:17,460 --> 01:02:21,280
the bottom gets hammered out and every sell-off goes down lower and lower and they're going to

1345
01:02:21,280 --> 01:02:26,220
get disillusioned out and they're going to walk away. What you actually need to do is think about

1346
01:02:26,220 --> 01:02:30,940
what would happen if we go to 80K. You can't control the markets like the tide. You get sucked

1347
01:02:30,940 --> 01:02:36,340
out to see if you swim against it. The only thing you can control your decisions. I've already made

1348
01:02:36,340 --> 01:02:42,300
my decisions at 115K when I sold my MSCR. I said, I'm going to start allocating that capital.

1349
01:02:42,300 --> 01:02:45,160
if we get anywhere within a sniff of that true market mean.

1350
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:46,100
Here we are.

1351
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:46,700
What am I doing?

1352
01:02:47,420 --> 01:02:49,480
All the money I sold for my MSTO is now allocated.

1353
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,080
And now any income that I kept coming in, straight in,

1354
01:02:53,120 --> 01:02:54,940
because I believe this is a good place to buy.

1355
01:02:55,060 --> 01:02:57,180
The funny thing as well is like when Bitcoin is flying,

1356
01:02:57,300 --> 01:02:58,620
when it's 120K, people are like,

1357
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:00,040
oh, I wish it was 80K still.

1358
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:01,500
And then it gets here and everyone panics.

1359
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:02,440
Like instead of grieving,

1360
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:04,280
you should just celebrate the opportunity to buy more.

1361
01:03:04,380 --> 01:03:05,360
If you're buying for the right reason,

1362
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:06,500
you're buying for the right timeframe,

1363
01:03:06,500 --> 01:03:08,040
then just buy more.

1364
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:08,380
Absolutely.

1365
01:03:08,580 --> 01:03:10,920
And for me, like I'm a simple dude, I don't trade.

1366
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,500
A lot of people think that you should trade.

1367
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:15,380
Trading is a horrible sport.

1368
01:03:15,420 --> 01:03:15,860
I don't.

1369
01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:17,220
It is a horrible sport.

1370
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:18,360
Everyone's tried to do it.

1371
01:03:18,420 --> 01:03:19,560
I learned my lesson in 2017.

1372
01:03:19,860 --> 01:03:20,060
Yep.

1373
01:03:20,420 --> 01:03:21,680
You've got some stories for it.

1374
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:22,080
Oh my God.

1375
01:03:22,660 --> 01:03:23,060
Same.

1376
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:23,880
Same.

1377
01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:25,320
So trading is a horrible sport.

1378
01:03:25,900 --> 01:03:28,640
It consumes, like for me, if I put a $100 perp on,

1379
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:32,320
I don't care about my net worth, which is 90% Bitcoin.

1380
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:32,860
I'm the same.

1381
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:33,500
It's so weird.

1382
01:03:33,500 --> 01:03:35,900
I'm worried about the 30 bucks that I'm down on my perp.

1383
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:36,700
It's because it's gambling.

1384
01:03:36,900 --> 01:03:39,260
I was talking to, me and Pete were in Vegas recently,

1385
01:03:39,260 --> 01:03:43,400
And he was like, we were talking about betting, you know, $100 on blackjack or whatever.

1386
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:47,600
And he was like, why am I more worried about this when my net worth in Bitcoin is fluctuating

1387
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:49,920
in orders of magnitude more than that every day?

1388
01:03:50,140 --> 01:03:51,140
Because you believe in it.

1389
01:03:51,220 --> 01:03:53,260
So a few kind of tips for people.

1390
01:03:53,380 --> 01:03:56,700
One, if you're levered and you're looking at a liquidation level that's like anywhere

1391
01:03:56,700 --> 01:03:58,960
close to this, just sort it out.

1392
01:03:59,140 --> 01:04:00,340
Don't dick around with it.

1393
01:04:00,380 --> 01:04:00,900
Sort it out.

1394
01:04:02,900 --> 01:04:08,060
As the market belts out of bottom, work out who you're buying for and what time frame.

1395
01:04:08,060 --> 01:04:14,540
allow yourself to just like realize that we're not at the top anymore right so you now have to ask

1396
01:04:14,540 --> 01:04:19,660
are we going much lower and if so by how much and like as a hodler you never buy and it goes

1397
01:04:19,660 --> 01:04:24,300
straight up from there you always go down five ten percent so work out what your pain threshold is

1398
01:04:24,300 --> 01:04:31,020
there is a thing called pain to the upside it's rare it's rare most of the time pain is always to

1399
01:04:31,020 --> 01:04:34,480
the downside because you're allocated and the people saying the pain is to the upside generally

1400
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:35,380
is because they're super long

1401
01:04:35,380 --> 01:04:37,040
and they want to tell Peter Schiff that he's wrong.

1402
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:39,160
Pain is usually to the downside

1403
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:40,840
and markets love to hunt pain.

1404
01:04:41,400 --> 01:04:42,920
So if your liquidation level is close,

1405
01:04:43,260 --> 01:04:43,740
get rid of it.

1406
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:45,720
If anything in your portfolio,

1407
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:47,640
and this is just like a general piece of market advice,

1408
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:51,060
if anything in your portfolio has you unable to sleep

1409
01:04:51,060 --> 01:04:52,980
or you think about it every single day,

1410
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:54,620
you are overexposed.

1411
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:56,060
It's just really simple.

1412
01:04:56,140 --> 01:04:57,360
If you are thinking about this thing

1413
01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,680
and it is like drawing your mind power,

1414
01:05:00,020 --> 01:05:03,000
for me, I don't think about my Bitcoin or my gold ever,

1415
01:05:03,200 --> 01:05:03,640
honestly.

1416
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:06,440
so I avoid buying the tops, right?

1417
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:08,900
That's, for me, if I just stopped buying high

1418
01:05:08,900 --> 01:05:11,120
and really I didn't buy very much above 100K,

1419
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:12,760
if I stopped buying high,

1420
01:05:12,820 --> 01:05:15,340
I have cash to buy when it goes lower

1421
01:05:15,340 --> 01:05:16,000
because it always does.

1422
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:18,240
So that's the same thing as selling the top,

1423
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:19,380
just minus the tax bill.

1424
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:21,660
Just understand who you're buying for,

1425
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:22,760
what your timeframe is.

1426
01:05:22,860 --> 01:05:24,420
If your position is keeping you awake,

1427
01:05:24,860 --> 01:05:26,680
you're too exposed, make some decisions

1428
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:28,160
and try and make them months ahead

1429
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:29,300
when you actually need them.

1430
01:05:29,500 --> 01:05:29,700
Totally.

1431
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:32,700
I don't know how long ago it was.

1432
01:05:32,700 --> 01:05:37,000
It was maybe, was it about two years ago we made our bet for the end of this year?

1433
01:05:37,100 --> 01:05:41,420
It would have been 2024, because I think we would have just started Check on Chain when

1434
01:05:41,420 --> 01:05:41,920
we had that.

1435
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:44,640
So it would have been early 2024, so maybe 18 months ago, a bit more.

1436
01:05:45,740 --> 01:05:49,800
And mine and Pete's guesses look absolutely moronic at this point.

1437
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:52,520
I think I said 282k by the end of this year.

1438
01:05:52,580 --> 01:05:54,320
And it was the maximum price by 2025.

1439
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:56,480
Yeah, Pete said 350k.

1440
01:05:56,960 --> 01:06:01,040
And mine was 250, which to be fair, I think like back then, it's much harder to read this

1441
01:06:01,040 --> 01:06:01,320
thing, right?

1442
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:02,500
The ETFs have just gone live.

1443
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:05,220
$250 was where I kind of said

1444
01:06:05,220 --> 01:06:07,320
that's probably as high as we go in 2025.

1445
01:06:08,660 --> 01:06:10,720
However, I would say a couple of months later,

1446
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:12,640
a lot of people have been calling me bearish all cycle

1447
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:13,660
because I said like $150.

1448
01:06:14,020 --> 01:06:15,660
I'm one of the people who's been calling you bearish.

1449
01:06:16,100 --> 01:06:18,800
I was saying $150 is, and to be fair,

1450
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:21,440
I wrote a piece at the top, right,

1451
01:06:21,500 --> 01:06:22,840
where I said it's called Add Another Trillion,

1452
01:06:22,900 --> 01:06:23,760
where I was like, you know, honestly,

1453
01:06:23,820 --> 01:06:24,880
I think we deserve a run at $150.

1454
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:26,820
And that was because back in January,

1455
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:28,900
this is looking at capital flows

1456
01:06:28,900 --> 01:06:30,840
and how much money had come into the ETFs and whatever.

1457
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:33,580
And my view was when we were at 100K in January,

1458
01:06:33,580 --> 01:06:35,160
I don't think we deserve a run at 150.

1459
01:06:35,220 --> 01:06:37,420
I don't think we've had the inflows yet.

1460
01:06:37,860 --> 01:06:39,520
When we got to like, it was like 118,

1461
01:06:39,660 --> 01:06:41,100
we're going for the second all-time high.

1462
01:06:41,180 --> 01:06:41,900
I wrote a piece saying, look,

1463
01:06:42,340 --> 01:06:43,720
I think we deserve a run at 150.

1464
01:06:43,900 --> 01:06:45,520
We got to 126 and that was the end of it.

1465
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,260
The reality is we then have to adjust.

1466
01:06:48,640 --> 01:06:51,420
And by the time we had that second all-time high fail,

1467
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:52,880
we had the liquidation event.

1468
01:06:53,220 --> 01:06:55,940
By the time we got to 115, 113, 112,

1469
01:06:56,200 --> 01:06:58,520
I'm like, I think something's up.

1470
01:06:58,740 --> 01:07:00,960
So you got to update your prize and say, look,

1471
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:03,200
I still think we deserve a run at 150.

1472
01:07:03,300 --> 01:07:04,140
People call me a bear

1473
01:07:04,140 --> 01:07:05,000
because that's not high enough.

1474
01:07:05,060 --> 01:07:07,080
It's like, yeah, but that is also the level

1475
01:07:07,080 --> 01:07:08,160
where statistically speaking,

1476
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:09,280
people were going to offload.

1477
01:07:09,380 --> 01:07:10,980
It just turns out they were offloading at 126

1478
01:07:10,980 --> 01:07:12,380
rather than at 150.

1479
01:07:12,460 --> 01:07:14,800
And to be honest, through the whole hundred zone.

1480
01:07:15,020 --> 01:07:16,700
So you got to be flexible, right?

1481
01:07:16,760 --> 01:07:17,760
You got to be flexible when you're thinking.

1482
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:19,880
And like Lynn said in the show we did,

1483
01:07:19,940 --> 01:07:23,740
there's probably some amount of self-fulfilling prophecy

1484
01:07:23,740 --> 01:07:25,260
that people think a cycle still alive

1485
01:07:25,260 --> 01:07:26,040
so they start selling.

1486
01:07:26,460 --> 01:07:28,180
But I think here right now,

1487
01:07:28,220 --> 01:07:29,780
we should make our prediction for 2026.

1488
01:07:30,960 --> 01:07:33,220
Oh, we can have, so I owe you 100k sats.

1489
01:07:33,420 --> 01:07:34,480
Pete owes you 100k sats.

1490
01:07:34,560 --> 01:07:35,640
I'm willing to concede that here.

1491
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:36,860
You're conceding December already.

1492
01:07:36,860 --> 01:07:38,820
I don't think we're going to go to 282k

1493
01:07:38,820 --> 01:07:39,740
by the end of December.

1494
01:07:40,740 --> 01:07:41,480
What are you thinking?

1495
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:44,420
Honestly, I actually think 2026,

1496
01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:46,200
I mean, it's going to be driven a lot by macro,

1497
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:46,880
no question.

1498
01:07:47,040 --> 01:07:48,660
I think 2026 is actually going to be constructive,

1499
01:07:49,160 --> 01:07:52,100
honestly, because I can't see a world

1500
01:07:52,100 --> 01:07:54,320
where the liquidity doesn't come back in.

1501
01:07:54,440 --> 01:07:56,480
I do think the Fed's going to have to expand

1502
01:07:56,480 --> 01:07:57,100
their balance sheet.

1503
01:07:57,620 --> 01:07:59,600
So if we think about like 150,

1504
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:02,060
I think probably happens, honestly.

1505
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:04,580
And the thing is, now that we've had this

1506
01:08:04,580 --> 01:08:07,680
at another trillion, we've had the capital flows

1507
01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:11,580
in my mental model to actually justify a run to 150.

1508
01:08:12,260 --> 01:08:13,760
I don't think we had that in January.

1509
01:08:14,580 --> 01:08:17,240
Let's have another year of bottoming out,

1510
01:08:17,860 --> 01:08:20,500
80K, maybe it takes a couple of months.

1511
01:08:20,940 --> 01:08:23,780
By the time we start drifting up towards the all-time high,

1512
01:08:24,580 --> 01:08:26,780
the capital flows that I personally, and I stand by this,

1513
01:08:26,780 --> 01:08:29,140
I still think that the capital flows justify that move to 150.

1514
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:31,560
there's going to be more capital coming in by that point.

1515
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:32,900
So then you start talking about, well,

1516
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:34,920
maybe the levels start drifting higher.

1517
01:08:35,480 --> 01:08:37,760
So look, 200 would be fantastic.

1518
01:08:38,780 --> 01:08:40,480
I do think it's going to be a positive year

1519
01:08:40,480 --> 01:08:43,120
and it's a positive year coming off something like 80K.

1520
01:08:43,480 --> 01:08:45,400
So for me, if I'm buying 80K

1521
01:08:45,400 --> 01:08:48,460
and we're going to go up to like 150, 160, I'll take it.

1522
01:08:48,700 --> 01:08:51,800
So look, let's stick with 150 as a level

1523
01:08:51,800 --> 01:08:53,300
because we're talking about a 12 month timeframe.

1524
01:08:53,580 --> 01:08:55,120
I think we could probably get there, truthfully.

1525
01:08:55,120 --> 01:08:57,420
I hate price predictions, but they're quite fun.

1526
01:08:58,280 --> 01:08:58,920
But it is a bit of fun.

1527
01:08:58,920 --> 01:09:01,660
Like the thing, when I look at next year,

1528
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:03,400
Jerome Powell's out.

1529
01:09:03,860 --> 01:09:05,380
Someone's going to come in, step in at the Fed,

1530
01:09:05,440 --> 01:09:08,060
who is probably going to be more in line with Trump,

1531
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,040
if not just an outright Trump stooge.

1532
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:12,000
They've got midterms.

1533
01:09:12,100 --> 01:09:13,260
They're going to want the economy flying.

1534
01:09:13,740 --> 01:09:17,560
Like I can see a lot of reasons why macro starts going ballistic.

1535
01:09:17,820 --> 01:09:19,200
Show me the incentive and I'll show you the result.

1536
01:09:19,480 --> 01:09:21,960
I'll go higher than you just because I may as well keep the theme going.

1537
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:22,840
You want to get your 100k sats back.

1538
01:09:23,380 --> 01:09:25,780
I'll go 190.

1539
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:27,360
Ooh.

1540
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:32,720
yeah well i mean you mentioned midterms um i think trump and the republicans are going to have a

1541
01:09:32,720 --> 01:09:39,380
really rough 2026 like i i don't know if they're going to be able to keep the house um they have a

1542
01:09:39,380 --> 01:09:44,620
stacked house right and senate if that flips to dem oof i don't know if that's looking good

1543
01:09:44,620 --> 01:09:50,860
especially for ai and that type of trade so for me to make a prediction where bitcoin bottoms is

1544
01:09:50,860 --> 01:09:57,880
super important if we bottom around the 80s yeah easily we're gonna surpass all-time high next year

1545
01:09:57,880 --> 01:10:06,220
i think i think but it depends how low we go so my prediction is gonna be 126k just just tag just

1546
01:10:06,220 --> 01:10:12,400
tag just tag by like end of year by this time pull an eath get 50 50 bucks below your and then

1547
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:17,720
we're gonna have this discussion again and we're gonna be like so now like it's the same as last

1548
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:21,780
year what the hell i feel like that's the type of vibe that i'm feeling is probably statistically

1549
01:10:21,780 --> 01:10:25,840
that's probably the best guess i would say so yeah that's good we've got a nice spread actually

1550
01:10:25,840 --> 01:10:32,260
there so there's enough gap between them i hope you're right i do too um is like if i would never

1551
01:10:32,260 --> 01:10:36,800
have guessed we were going to end this year below 100 when we made that no that's that is surprising

1552
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:43,160
yeah it's uh it's exciting especially inflation adjusted yeah and to be like that's the thing

1553
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:47,620
right when you're at 126 it's actually not the worst year right i think a lot of people

1554
01:10:47,620 --> 01:10:53,720
expected substantially higher, but like 126 is still within like reasonable bounds.

1555
01:10:54,860 --> 01:10:57,880
But coming down to 80, I think that's surprised a lot of people, no doubt.

1556
01:10:58,220 --> 01:11:00,940
Do you think that we're going to see a rotation from gold into Bitcoin?

1557
01:11:01,220 --> 01:11:01,720
Oh, totally.

1558
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:02,580
Totally.

1559
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:07,080
I mean, I'm literally thinking about, do I take an extra tax hit to do so?

1560
01:11:07,100 --> 01:11:10,080
But you're an outlier there because you're obviously, you're a Bitcoiner who has a bit

1561
01:11:10,080 --> 01:11:10,360
of gold.

1562
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:13,460
Most people are gold bugs that maybe don't have any exposure to Bitcoin.

1563
01:11:13,880 --> 01:11:17,000
Yes, but at the same time, people love momentum.

1564
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:26,180
And I think if we find a floor and then Bitcoin starts moving, because again, once the thing starts moving, everyone's going to go, oh, that cockroach didn't die.

1565
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:27,840
I get, oh shit, I sold one with Bitcoin.

1566
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:28,640
Maybe we should get back in.

1567
01:11:28,800 --> 01:11:30,360
Smart money wants to find the bottom, man.

1568
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:30,700
Totally.

1569
01:11:30,800 --> 01:11:32,100
They don't want to, they don't care.

1570
01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:32,980
They want to find the bottom.

1571
01:11:32,980 --> 01:11:36,640
I can't stop thinking about the just sheer magnitude of selling.

1572
01:11:37,860 --> 01:11:38,500
Who are the buyers?

1573
01:11:39,220 --> 01:11:39,380
Yeah.

1574
01:11:39,500 --> 01:11:40,340
Someone serious.

1575
01:11:40,520 --> 01:11:41,600
It's someone very, very serious.

1576
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:44,160
And we're going to find out at some point, but it's someone very, very serious.

1577
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:46,520
has to be because otherwise we'd be at zero.

1578
01:11:46,980 --> 01:11:47,380
You know what I mean?

1579
01:11:47,400 --> 01:11:48,880
Like the scale of it is just too big.

1580
01:11:49,300 --> 01:11:50,140
When you say sovereigns,

1581
01:11:50,140 --> 01:11:51,440
you mentioned that a couple of times in the show.

1582
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:53,340
If you had to guess,

1583
01:11:53,480 --> 01:11:55,160
what kind of sovereigns do you think are buying?

1584
01:11:56,080 --> 01:11:59,740
It's not some peewee country in Europe.

1585
01:11:59,960 --> 01:12:01,200
You think it could be like Gulf States?

1586
01:12:01,540 --> 01:12:03,960
So my base case is it's going to be

1587
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:05,140
either the biggest countries

1588
01:12:05,140 --> 01:12:07,120
or the smallest ones that have nothing to lose.

1589
01:12:08,120 --> 01:12:09,120
They're the most likely.

1590
01:12:09,260 --> 01:12:12,180
Like Australia ain't buying Bitcoin anytime soon.

1591
01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:12,980
Yeah, neither is the UK.

1592
01:12:13,380 --> 01:12:14,260
Neither is the UK.

1593
01:12:14,620 --> 01:12:16,740
Neither is like probably Germany sold theirs.

1594
01:12:17,020 --> 01:12:19,480
I think these like middle of the road countries,

1595
01:12:19,740 --> 01:12:21,040
they don't have the incentive.

1596
01:12:21,380 --> 01:12:23,080
The little guys have the incentive

1597
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:25,140
because they could get shut out of the financial system.

1598
01:12:25,280 --> 01:12:26,240
They could also just like, you know,

1599
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:28,640
like El Salvador, they want to get ahead in some way.

1600
01:12:29,320 --> 01:12:31,340
And then you've got the big dogs, the Chinas,

1601
01:12:31,620 --> 01:12:33,720
the US, the Russias.

1602
01:12:33,800 --> 01:12:34,600
These are like the big countries

1603
01:12:34,600 --> 01:12:35,960
who are like they have a real incentive,

1604
01:12:35,960 --> 01:12:37,840
which is we need to save our money somewhere.

1605
01:12:38,420 --> 01:12:40,640
Do you not even think like Australia's sovereign wealth fund

1606
01:12:40,640 --> 01:12:41,360
could be buying?

1607
01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:43,280
I don't think they're that smart.

1608
01:12:43,280 --> 01:12:46,400
Because it's interesting. Was it the Belgian sovereign wealth fund that bought some recently?

1609
01:12:46,400 --> 01:12:47,520
I'm not sure.

1610
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:51,200
I could be wrong on that, but a country like that has recently come out and said they bought Bitcoin.

1611
01:12:51,200 --> 01:12:52,320
Was it Czech Republic?

1612
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:53,520
That would make sense. Yeah.

1613
01:12:53,520 --> 01:12:55,040
Yeah. They're pretty bullish on Bitcoin, I think.

1614
01:12:55,040 --> 01:12:59,920
I feel like any carbon neutral government isn't going to be able to buy it yet.

1615
01:12:59,920 --> 01:13:01,440
Do you think that they still care about that?

1616
01:13:01,440 --> 01:13:07,600
They don't understand yet. Like, especially Australia, like they'll get one bit of pushback,

1617
01:13:07,600 --> 01:13:10,400
just it burns all this. And then they'll be like, okay, we can't touch it.

1618
01:13:10,400 --> 01:13:12,660
Yeah, even though the economy's run on oil.

1619
01:13:12,860 --> 01:13:13,480
There's a good story.

1620
01:13:13,700 --> 01:13:14,500
There's a good story.

1621
01:13:14,740 --> 01:13:18,020
There's up in Newcastle, which is about an hour north of Sydney,

1622
01:13:18,740 --> 01:13:22,260
there's a bit of an uproar because it's a little bit old now,

1623
01:13:22,320 --> 01:13:24,260
but there's these wind turbines that have been sitting on the docks

1624
01:13:24,260 --> 01:13:25,320
for like years.

1625
01:13:25,920 --> 01:13:28,200
And there's all these like government proposals about they want

1626
01:13:28,200 --> 01:13:29,800
to build offshore wind turbines.

1627
01:13:29,900 --> 01:13:31,200
People are like, no, the whales and blah, blah, blah.

1628
01:13:31,620 --> 01:13:34,140
It's finally come out that those wind turbines actually aren't

1629
01:13:34,140 --> 01:13:34,940
for the offshore.

1630
01:13:35,620 --> 01:13:38,060
They're actually for like an inland wind turbine,

1631
01:13:38,060 --> 01:13:40,140
but they can't fit them on the trucks because they don't

1632
01:13:40,140 --> 01:13:45,020
fit on the roads. So these wind turbine blades are just rotting on the docks because they

1633
01:13:45,020 --> 01:13:50,240
can't move them. That's your Australian government in a nutshell. So I don't think they'd be

1634
01:13:50,240 --> 01:13:51,080
clinging to Bitcoin anytime soon.

1635
01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:53,020
That's almost any government in a nutshell, I think.

1636
01:13:53,440 --> 01:13:54,400
It's kind of sad.

1637
01:13:54,560 --> 01:13:59,260
It's going to be, this year, even though it's been maybe disappointing from a bull market

1638
01:13:59,260 --> 01:14:03,480
perspective, is probably the most interesting year in terms of what Bitcoin is going to

1639
01:14:03,480 --> 01:14:04,340
look like in the future.

1640
01:14:04,340 --> 01:14:09,140
A total reshaping of, and that's what I mean, the three pillars. The ETFs changed a lot,

1641
01:14:09,140 --> 01:14:12,360
not because they're like the biggest buyer,

1642
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:14,540
not because they've changed market structure

1643
01:14:14,540 --> 01:14:15,580
or the way the on-chain works.

1644
01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:17,860
Like from my view, they're 20% of the demand.

1645
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:21,680
They changed the regulatory understanding.

1646
01:14:21,820 --> 01:14:24,000
They allowed institutions to come in.

1647
01:14:24,040 --> 01:14:25,200
They can put on basis trades.

1648
01:14:25,280 --> 01:14:26,440
They can put on long positions.

1649
01:14:27,700 --> 01:14:30,920
The iBit options are now 60% of the underlying.

1650
01:14:31,100 --> 01:14:33,100
So you've got 60 cents of options.

1651
01:14:33,340 --> 01:14:36,940
Now they can buy Bitcoin and rent it out with covered calls.

1652
01:14:37,100 --> 01:14:38,200
And we're going to see a lot of that.

1653
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:42,840
So I think that the ETFs just completely changed the perception and the access.

1654
01:14:43,620 --> 01:14:49,020
The hold the sell side and the great rotation has genuinely been a changing of the guard.

1655
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:52,860
It'll take time to process it and for the market to hammer out a floor and find that

1656
01:14:52,860 --> 01:14:54,960
new equilibrium, but that has changed the holder base.

1657
01:14:55,860 --> 01:14:58,600
And then the world of options is going to be very, very interesting moving forward.

1658
01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:02,500
It's going to change market structure forever, already has arguably, but we're going to see

1659
01:15:02,500 --> 01:15:03,220
a lot more of that.

1660
01:15:03,220 --> 01:15:07,700
Again, gold's options are 120% of the underlying for GLD.

1661
01:15:08,200 --> 01:15:09,760
If you look at iBit, we're halfway there.

1662
01:15:09,940 --> 01:15:11,200
So they're going to get much, much bigger.

1663
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:13,720
Well, I think, so we should talk about why we're here.

1664
01:15:14,440 --> 01:15:14,980
Oh, yes.

1665
01:15:15,100 --> 01:15:18,360
Because there's a shitcoin conference going on in Sydney at the moment.

1666
01:15:19,360 --> 01:15:21,640
I had no plans to come, but a few of my friends were coming down.

1667
01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:22,960
I was like, okay, I'll come to a show.

1668
01:15:23,120 --> 01:15:24,380
We can hang out, have a few beers.

1669
01:15:25,780 --> 01:15:30,860
But I went to the opening party last night, and it really surprised me.

1670
01:15:31,400 --> 01:15:33,440
So this was a room full of shitcoiners.

1671
01:15:33,440 --> 01:15:36,660
A couple of people came over, joined in with our group, and started talking.

1672
01:15:36,660 --> 01:15:40,900
and they couldn't understand why we only cared about Bitcoin.

1673
01:15:41,000 --> 01:15:41,540
Crazy, right?

1674
01:15:41,680 --> 01:15:43,160
Like, I don't know.

1675
01:15:43,700 --> 01:15:44,840
I think we're really insured.

1676
01:15:44,940 --> 01:15:47,920
We're in a bit of an echo chamber with like the Bitcoin community.

1677
01:15:48,060 --> 01:15:49,560
Like we think everyone thinks like this.

1678
01:15:49,560 --> 01:15:52,960
So being in a room with people that are like talking about meme coins

1679
01:15:52,960 --> 01:15:54,980
and like whatever shit going under the sun

1680
01:15:54,980 --> 01:15:58,600
and then them totally not getting why you're into boomer coin.

1681
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:01,480
Like how weird is that that still exists

1682
01:16:01,480 --> 01:16:03,880
despite the market just absolutely tanking?

1683
01:16:03,960 --> 01:16:04,180
Totally.

1684
01:16:04,180 --> 01:16:10,240
And I tapped it, Matt, because I very much view being here as a business maneuver because

1685
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:15,120
I just want to get exposed because the Australian Bitcoin scene is actually very strong.

1686
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:16,040
There's some great Bitcoins.

1687
01:16:16,060 --> 01:16:17,200
The great Bitcoins in Australia.

1688
01:16:17,420 --> 01:16:18,800
The Bitcoin Bush Bash is fantastic.

1689
01:16:19,060 --> 01:16:21,380
Bitcoin Alive is an actual conference, Bitcoin only.

1690
01:16:21,820 --> 01:16:22,680
Really, really good.

1691
01:16:23,220 --> 01:16:25,620
So the Bitcoin contingent, albeit small, right?

1692
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:27,500
The conference gets 400 people there.

1693
01:16:27,880 --> 01:16:29,500
So it's a small, which by the way, makes them better.

1694
01:16:29,720 --> 01:16:29,860
Yeah.

1695
01:16:29,920 --> 01:16:30,580
Small, small.

1696
01:16:30,660 --> 01:16:31,600
But they're like hardcore.

1697
01:16:32,020 --> 01:16:33,520
Hardcore and really high signal.

1698
01:16:33,760 --> 01:16:34,160
Yeah.

1699
01:16:34,180 --> 01:16:37,720
But the Australian crypto scene has no idea we exist

1700
01:16:37,720 --> 01:16:39,060
and we don't care that they exist.

1701
01:16:39,580 --> 01:16:42,680
So I very much view this as like, it's like going to the zoo.

1702
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:45,560
And we were talking this morning about like the impacts of AI.

1703
01:16:45,560 --> 01:16:51,560
And I'm a little bit more skeptical about like how much AI is going to,

1704
01:16:52,380 --> 01:16:54,000
it's going to be transformative, no question.

1705
01:16:54,540 --> 01:16:57,020
I don't trust it for anything that I use it for.

1706
01:16:57,120 --> 01:17:00,060
Like it makes mistakes all the time and I find I'm constantly checking it.

1707
01:17:00,120 --> 01:17:01,640
But I also like to think.

1708
01:17:01,640 --> 01:17:06,560
like thinking is my one of my favorite things to do so for me i actually don't like outsourcing my

1709
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:12,220
thinking so for me as a professional ai doesn't help me but then we talk about like the zoo that

1710
01:17:12,220 --> 01:17:17,800
we're about to go and see you then realize where the actual bell curve is people still think that

1711
01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:21,400
ripple is going to be a thing um i was talking to a mate the other day who said that like the

1712
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:25,900
solana and the ripple etfs had really really strong inflows like the best etfs of the year

1713
01:17:25,900 --> 01:17:29,500
and I'm like, okay, so AI may be retarded,

1714
01:17:30,020 --> 01:17:33,320
but so are the people that's going to replace.

1715
01:17:33,660 --> 01:17:35,900
So I'm like, it's actually not that AI is great.

1716
01:17:36,080 --> 01:17:38,240
It's that the bell curve is kind of challenging

1717
01:17:38,240 --> 01:17:39,460
and we're about to go and look at it.

1718
01:17:39,640 --> 01:17:40,800
Yeah, the bar's not that high.

1719
01:17:40,860 --> 01:17:42,500
I know, that's the scary thing about it.

1720
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:44,260
I was there for like an hour last night

1721
01:17:44,260 --> 01:17:46,880
and then people around me were talking about shit coins.

1722
01:17:46,980 --> 01:17:47,960
I was just like, I'm just going to go home

1723
01:17:47,960 --> 01:17:48,600
and watch the ice shoes.

1724
01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:50,220
I literally just bailed and came home

1725
01:17:50,220 --> 01:17:50,760
and watched the cricket.

1726
01:17:52,600 --> 01:17:53,800
Honestly, it's just fiat.

1727
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:58,660
that they're just stocks that can pump and make Aussies love just making money like we're a super

1728
01:17:58,660 --> 01:18:04,460
rich country everyone just you just invest in ETFs here or property and there's just this new thing

1729
01:18:04,460 --> 01:18:09,200
that's just stock it's just stocks yeah so people just can get rich off of it it's just rich guys

1730
01:18:09,200 --> 01:18:13,300
doing rich things yeah they don't care about the fundamentals like there are no fun the reason they

1731
01:18:13,300 --> 01:18:17,760
don't understand bitcoin is because they have never actually studied the thing all they know is that

1732
01:18:17,760 --> 01:18:20,820
is this thing going to go up like that's kind of the questions that they have with each other is

1733
01:18:20,820 --> 01:18:25,960
like is it going to pump like we don't talk about that with bitcoin really we like the fundamentals

1734
01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:30,860
of bitcoin are why we're here and just a lot of people don't have the time or i don't know they

1735
01:18:30,860 --> 01:18:35,200
don't have the uh long-term vision to actually buy into that so they just don't understand it

1736
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:39,600
like why would you buy that it's not it's not just going to rip a million percent it's like

1737
01:18:39,600 --> 01:18:43,360
it's not about that well i've actually been enjoying because you've recently been going down

1738
01:18:43,360 --> 01:18:48,620
the level six matthew mcconnell scale like getting into like the why bitcoin like you've been in the

1739
01:18:48,620 --> 01:18:54,420
industry for years now. Ages, yeah. Tell us about like going into the actual Bitcoin rabbit hole,

1740
01:18:54,500 --> 01:18:57,500
because it is, you go through this phase and it's very nostalgic. As you were telling me,

1741
01:18:57,520 --> 01:19:00,240
the stories are like, damn, I remember when I went down the stairs. Oh, the great old days.

1742
01:19:00,240 --> 01:19:06,220
Yeah. We like understanding mining and all that. Yeah. No, I mean, I got a little too attached to

1743
01:19:06,220 --> 01:19:11,380
the price with Bitcoin and short term, and I really needed a way to zoom out a little bit,

1744
01:19:11,420 --> 01:19:17,140
because Bitcoin is not a 2025 asset. You do not buy it. I mean, if you're a hodler and you're

1745
01:19:17,140 --> 01:19:23,200
trying to accumulate for your 10-year self, price movements today shouldn't affect you as much as

1746
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:29,220
they do. And they were affecting me a lot. So I was like, I need to study UTXOs. I need to study

1747
01:19:29,220 --> 01:19:35,340
how the blockchain actually works. I need to go deep, read the Stoshi emails, really understand

1748
01:19:35,340 --> 01:19:41,360
the fundamentals to build my trust again in the actual asset itself, in the system, in the software,

1749
01:19:41,360 --> 01:19:43,680
in the group of nodes in the world.

1750
01:19:43,780 --> 01:19:44,440
And I just got like,

1751
01:19:44,860 --> 01:19:47,480
I reinvigorated my excitement for Bitcoin

1752
01:19:47,480 --> 01:19:49,780
because I'm like, no, this thing fucking is amazing.

1753
01:19:50,360 --> 01:19:51,580
Was there anything when you were doing that

1754
01:19:51,580 --> 01:19:53,060
that was like, holy shit?

1755
01:19:53,480 --> 01:19:56,040
Like, even if it was just like learning something again

1756
01:19:56,040 --> 01:19:58,420
or was there something that really sort of settled you?

1757
01:19:58,980 --> 01:19:59,600
Oh my God.

1758
01:20:00,220 --> 01:20:05,620
Just like the brilliance of the design of nodes and mining

1759
01:20:05,620 --> 01:20:09,960
and how multiple nodes can have different copies

1760
01:20:09,960 --> 01:20:18,600
of the ledger. And then you must require one node to decide that this is the next block. Is everyone

1761
01:20:18,600 --> 01:20:24,540
happy with this? Yes. If something goes wrong, it auto-corrects itself. And then I was imagining

1762
01:20:24,540 --> 01:20:31,160
how banks manage their ledgers and humans manage ledgers right now. And no one knows. It's a black

1763
01:20:31,160 --> 01:20:36,800
box. Humans make wrong decisions all the time. It's not automated at all. They can shut down

1764
01:20:36,800 --> 01:20:41,380
your accounts. They can move your money. So many governments just take people's money.

1765
01:20:41,760 --> 01:20:43,900
Like I think in Lebanon, like a bunch of places, right?

1766
01:20:43,920 --> 01:20:44,560
All over the world.

1767
01:20:44,620 --> 01:20:50,720
And just the brilliance of the Bitcoin network and software to just automate and take the human

1768
01:20:50,720 --> 01:20:57,720
error out of that. I was like, no, nothing can fuck with this. And nothing will ever get the

1769
01:20:57,720 --> 01:21:02,900
amount of broad reach that Bitcoin has. I just don't think so. There's a first mover advantage.

1770
01:21:02,900 --> 01:21:05,660
like the whole Satoshi story is also just fascinating.

1771
01:21:05,820 --> 01:21:06,880
The fact that he hasn't come back,

1772
01:21:07,520 --> 01:21:09,580
the fact that there's no guy that he can,

1773
01:21:09,680 --> 01:21:10,820
imagine Satoshi could tweet.

1774
01:21:11,140 --> 01:21:14,680
Like I feel like, dude, I swear,

1775
01:21:14,800 --> 01:21:16,440
like he would say some whack stuff

1776
01:21:16,440 --> 01:21:18,260
and like tank the market.

1777
01:21:18,380 --> 01:21:18,660
I don't know.

1778
01:21:18,720 --> 01:21:20,360
I just, I love the entire,

1779
01:21:20,420 --> 01:21:22,160
it's almost like a biblical story.

1780
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,320
Like the narrative of Bitcoin is so strong.

1781
01:21:24,500 --> 01:21:27,820
So I think just it has all the elements

1782
01:21:27,820 --> 01:21:31,160
to be a long-term stalwart asset

1783
01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:33,340
and price this year,

1784
01:21:33,400 --> 01:21:34,020
it doesn't really matter.

1785
01:21:34,140 --> 01:21:35,280
You know what's actually exciting?

1786
01:21:35,440 --> 01:21:36,480
We can buy cheaper Bitcoin.

1787
01:21:36,880 --> 01:21:37,220
Exactly.

1788
01:21:37,380 --> 01:21:38,580
This is not something to be scared about.

1789
01:21:38,720 --> 01:21:39,260
This is opportunity.

1790
01:21:39,560 --> 01:21:40,600
The last bottom was,

1791
01:21:40,700 --> 01:21:41,040
what was it?

1792
01:21:41,080 --> 01:21:42,020
FTX was 16.

1793
01:21:42,460 --> 01:21:43,100
15.6.

1794
01:21:43,540 --> 01:21:43,940
15K.

1795
01:21:44,100 --> 01:21:45,980
If our bottom now can be anything

1796
01:21:46,031 --> 01:21:52,991
over that. That's fantastic. Again, if you zoom out, like if you zoom out to the 2028,

1797
01:21:52,991 --> 01:21:58,031
when the politicians switch over in America, that's going to be a whole other world. Do you

1798
01:21:58,031 --> 01:22:03,671
think Bitcoin will be up or down by then? It's like, I'm damn sure it's going to be up.

1799
01:22:03,671 --> 01:22:04,911
Yeah. Less fucking-

1800
01:22:04,911 --> 01:22:05,791
So fuck yeah.

1801
01:22:05,791 --> 01:22:06,791
Yep.

1802
01:22:06,791 --> 01:22:07,791
Get bullish.

1803
01:22:07,791 --> 01:22:11,071
I'm excited to go and see this zoo. I'm going to go for exactly 20 minutes. I'm going to watch

1804
01:22:11,071 --> 01:22:13,231
your talk, watch you dunk on the wall, and then I'm going to leave.

1805
01:22:13,231 --> 01:22:18,031
And basically, a lot of the things that we talk about is the ETFs, granted, mine excluding

1806
01:22:18,031 --> 01:22:22,951
the last couple of days, the ETFs are bigger in terms of capital inflows.

1807
01:22:23,051 --> 01:22:27,191
Just the dollars people have actually invested are bigger than every single ASX stock in

1808
01:22:27,191 --> 01:22:29,911
the Australian stock market, except for the big four banks and BHP.

1809
01:22:30,391 --> 01:22:34,971
So the inflows are the sixth biggest company in Australia.

1810
01:22:35,551 --> 01:22:39,451
And if you look at the AUM, where the AUM peaked, it was bigger than everything except

1811
01:22:39,451 --> 01:22:40,611
ComBank, which is our biggest bank.

1812
01:22:40,611 --> 01:22:43,911
So the scale of it is just tremendous.

1813
01:22:44,131 --> 01:22:45,151
And they've been around for-

1814
01:22:45,151 --> 01:22:46,511
Since January 24.

1815
01:22:46,691 --> 01:22:46,891
Yeah.

1816
01:22:47,091 --> 01:22:50,131
So it's remarkable just seeing the scale of it.

1817
01:22:50,231 --> 01:22:54,631
And actually, I should close with my favorite metric in all of on-chain data, and it's the

1818
01:22:54,631 --> 01:22:56,231
backbone metric, is the realized cap.

1819
01:22:56,671 --> 01:23:00,251
The realized cap values every UTXO at the time when it moved on-chain.

1820
01:23:00,511 --> 01:23:04,531
If you bought a coin in 2019 at 10K, it's saved at that 10K price.

1821
01:23:04,971 --> 01:23:09,331
The realized cap is how much we as Bitcoiners have entrusted to the asset.

1822
01:23:10,051 --> 01:23:11,471
$1.12 trillion.

1823
01:23:12,351 --> 01:23:15,311
So whenever someone tells you that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value,

1824
01:23:15,891 --> 01:23:19,831
there's $1.12 trillion that disagrees with you where Bitcoiners have gone,

1825
01:23:19,911 --> 01:23:20,311
no way.

1826
01:23:20,671 --> 01:23:22,851
I trust this thing to look after my savings.

1827
01:23:23,571 --> 01:23:25,051
It's a monumental amount.

1828
01:23:25,431 --> 01:23:28,211
At the all-time high, we had more unrealized profit.

1829
01:23:28,291 --> 01:23:29,231
That's our cost basis.

1830
01:23:29,371 --> 01:23:30,411
We're at two and a half trillion.

1831
01:23:31,071 --> 01:23:35,371
We had the unrealized profit in Bitcoin is bigger than Berkshire Hathaway, right?

1832
01:23:35,371 --> 01:23:36,671
Rat poison squared by R.

1833
01:23:36,671 --> 01:23:40,331
So get bullish because Bitcoin's not going anywhere.

1834
01:23:40,631 --> 01:23:41,971
It's going to come back like a cockroach.

1835
01:23:42,571 --> 01:23:43,131
Happy days.

1836
01:23:43,491 --> 01:23:44,171
Let's fucking go.

1837
01:23:44,351 --> 01:23:45,431
All right, this has been awesome, guys.

1838
01:23:45,511 --> 01:23:47,431
We'll be back in a year together.

1839
01:23:47,651 --> 01:23:49,171
Can I add one more thing before we close?

1840
01:23:49,871 --> 01:23:51,531
Because something I think is actually important,

1841
01:23:52,491 --> 01:23:55,251
Charles Edwards has been on about the quantum threat recently.

1842
01:23:56,031 --> 01:24:00,751
It's very hard to handicap what is true and isn't in the quantum space.

1843
01:24:01,051 --> 01:24:04,431
I do think it's worth, like Bitcoin is just generally speaking,

1844
01:24:04,431 --> 01:24:06,471
having a conversation about what we do.

1845
01:24:06,671 --> 01:24:11,051
because you know what would just destroy the final piece of FUD that's out there

1846
01:24:11,051 --> 01:24:14,991
is having a strategy, working out what it's going to look like.

1847
01:24:15,331 --> 01:24:19,671
Whilst, you know, I'm not quite sure that I agree with like that it's coming in a year,

1848
01:24:19,731 --> 01:24:20,791
it's coming in two years time.

1849
01:24:21,011 --> 01:24:24,431
I still think Charles is very right that we should start talking about it now.

1850
01:24:24,911 --> 01:24:26,471
And we should just have a game plan.

1851
01:24:26,691 --> 01:24:32,211
If we have a game plan by the end of 2026, let's use this bear market, put aside the price.

1852
01:24:32,751 --> 01:24:34,471
Let's work out what the strategy is.

1853
01:24:34,471 --> 01:24:37,871
And if the strategy is we need to do more coding, more work, more research, which we will,

1854
01:24:38,331 --> 01:24:41,451
I'm in no way qualified enough to understand what needs to go into it.

1855
01:24:42,211 --> 01:24:43,991
Let's have that conversation now.

1856
01:24:44,651 --> 01:24:48,211
Because I'll tell you what, when you solve that problem, there ain't nothing left.

1857
01:24:48,731 --> 01:24:49,631
Well, let's have the conversation.

1858
01:24:49,771 --> 01:24:51,291
Because I think this is super interesting.

1859
01:24:51,471 --> 01:24:53,671
I, again, have no idea what the timescale is on this.

1860
01:24:53,771 --> 01:24:55,531
But let's just assume it happens at some point.

1861
01:24:56,251 --> 01:24:58,831
And if over a long enough time span, it will happen.

1862
01:24:59,011 --> 01:24:59,171
Yeah.

1863
01:24:59,531 --> 01:25:02,131
So the question is, like, what happens?

1864
01:25:02,131 --> 01:25:04,091
we're going to move to an address format

1865
01:25:04,091 --> 01:25:04,911
that is quantum proof.

1866
01:25:06,211 --> 01:25:16,396
I don think that will be contentious because everyone will have to do that So that part easy The tricky part is what do you do about all the coins that are in these old PaithPubKey hash addresses or whatever

1867
01:25:17,856 --> 01:25:20,576
Do you freeze them or do you let them be stolen?

1868
01:25:20,696 --> 01:25:24,556
So first things first, I think separating those two, they're two separate issues.

1869
01:25:25,716 --> 01:25:29,076
It is an absolute mistake to put them in the same bit.

1870
01:25:29,416 --> 01:25:30,176
Two separate issues.

1871
01:25:30,276 --> 01:25:31,176
We have to deal with them separately.

1872
01:25:31,676 --> 01:25:35,656
So first things first, let's build, research, design,

1873
01:25:35,656 --> 01:25:36,556
whatever we got to do.

1874
01:25:36,696 --> 01:25:38,036
I know Bit360 is out there.

1875
01:25:38,116 --> 01:25:39,196
Again, I'm not smart enough

1876
01:25:39,196 --> 01:25:39,976
to understand any of it.

1877
01:25:41,736 --> 01:25:42,916
Let's get the option,

1878
01:25:43,236 --> 01:25:44,596
the option for people

1879
01:25:44,596 --> 01:25:45,956
to upgrade build first.

1880
01:25:46,096 --> 01:25:46,196
Yeah.

1881
01:25:46,296 --> 01:25:46,696
Ship that.

1882
01:25:46,756 --> 01:25:47,336
Well, that's happening.

1883
01:25:47,496 --> 01:25:48,536
Like HuntsBeast is working on this.

1884
01:25:48,776 --> 01:25:49,116
Like that's,

1885
01:25:49,196 --> 01:25:50,496
maybe it needs more eyeballs on it.

1886
01:25:50,516 --> 01:25:51,196
I think it needs more people

1887
01:25:51,196 --> 01:25:52,596
to just understand what it is,

1888
01:25:52,656 --> 01:25:53,196
how it works.

1889
01:25:53,276 --> 01:25:54,336
So I think first things first,

1890
01:25:54,396 --> 01:25:55,036
just get that done.

1891
01:25:55,196 --> 01:25:56,596
Now on the second topic

1892
01:25:56,596 --> 01:25:58,036
of what do you do with old coins?

1893
01:25:58,216 --> 01:26:00,036
If you solve that first bit,

1894
01:26:00,856 --> 01:26:01,896
this is lore of the jungle

1895
01:26:01,896 --> 01:26:02,776
until proven otherwise.

1896
01:26:02,876 --> 01:26:04,136
But at least you had people

1897
01:26:04,136 --> 01:26:04,976
with an option

1898
01:26:05,476 --> 01:26:06,196
Sort that out first.

1899
01:26:06,676 --> 01:26:09,356
My personal view on the, what do you do with the old coins?

1900
01:26:10,236 --> 01:26:11,436
They come back to market.

1901
01:26:12,256 --> 01:26:12,936
I totally agree.

1902
01:26:13,096 --> 01:26:15,976
I don't think, and the reason I want to go down that approach,

1903
01:26:16,096 --> 01:26:18,536
there's two angles, and we had a big talk about this

1904
01:26:18,536 --> 01:26:19,996
in a cheat code last year.

1905
01:26:21,136 --> 01:26:24,296
There's the argument of if someone's coins get stolen,

1906
01:26:24,776 --> 01:26:27,116
the security assumptions of Bitcoin get broken.

1907
01:26:27,776 --> 01:26:30,436
But then the other side is if you freeze someone's coins,

1908
01:26:30,996 --> 01:26:34,116
I think you taint the idea of Bitcoin, which is property rights.

1909
01:26:34,976 --> 01:26:36,916
if someone has your private key,

1910
01:26:37,356 --> 01:26:39,176
they legally don't own the coins,

1911
01:26:39,816 --> 01:26:42,316
but they do own them, right?

1912
01:26:42,736 --> 01:26:44,216
Possession is nine-tenths of the law.

1913
01:26:44,476 --> 01:26:46,656
If you leave your private key in a desk drawer

1914
01:26:46,656 --> 01:26:47,456
and someone gets it,

1915
01:26:47,676 --> 01:26:50,396
or someone uses quantum to extract them,

1916
01:26:50,836 --> 01:26:53,356
you have kind of made the decision to not upgrade.

1917
01:26:53,616 --> 01:26:55,976
So if we take Satoshi, for example,

1918
01:26:56,636 --> 01:26:58,176
if we freeze his coins,

1919
01:26:58,596 --> 01:27:00,476
we are doing so before Q day,

1920
01:27:00,716 --> 01:27:01,936
because otherwise they would have been stolen.

1921
01:27:02,196 --> 01:27:03,956
If we freeze Satoshi's coins,

1922
01:27:03,956 --> 01:27:05,536
we made that decision for him.

1923
01:27:05,936 --> 01:27:08,036
What if it was on a Monday and on a Tuesday

1924
01:27:08,036 --> 01:27:09,156
he comes back from the dead,

1925
01:27:09,336 --> 01:27:11,096
or he is Hal Finney and he's frozen,

1926
01:27:11,416 --> 01:27:13,336
and he brings back man in the coma and he goes,

1927
01:27:13,776 --> 01:27:16,296
whoa, quantum hasn't been invented or it failed,

1928
01:27:17,396 --> 01:27:19,276
and you bugger sold my, I froze my coins.

1929
01:27:19,796 --> 01:27:22,356
If we freeze other people's coins,

1930
01:27:22,496 --> 01:27:24,556
irrespective of flag days and all of that,

1931
01:27:24,936 --> 01:27:27,736
we made the decision to take someone else's coins.

1932
01:27:27,836 --> 01:27:28,096
Yes.

1933
01:27:28,576 --> 01:27:30,856
If, on the other hand, we build the system

1934
01:27:30,856 --> 01:27:32,816
and allow people to migrate, which will take time,

1935
01:27:32,816 --> 01:27:33,636
and that's a whole process,

1936
01:27:33,956 --> 01:27:35,796
Q-Day comes along and they get taken.

1937
01:27:36,176 --> 01:27:39,416
In that instance, they chose not to save their coins.

1938
01:27:39,636 --> 01:27:41,116
That's their decision, not our decision.

1939
01:27:41,576 --> 01:27:44,356
Now, the one proposal, I think Hunter Beast talks about this,

1940
01:27:44,596 --> 01:27:47,336
which I think is potentially worth thinking about,

1941
01:27:47,876 --> 01:27:49,216
is a rate-limiting approach.

1942
01:27:49,376 --> 01:27:52,176
Yeah, so he talks about only one transaction per block

1943
01:27:52,176 --> 01:27:54,276
to be a non-quantum proof address.

1944
01:27:54,296 --> 01:27:55,756
Yes, and I think the...

1945
01:27:55,756 --> 01:27:57,216
Of the legacy coins.

1946
01:27:57,356 --> 01:27:59,616
And I think that his rationale there is a sound one,

1947
01:27:59,716 --> 01:28:02,236
which is that if you look at the current performance of the chain,

1948
01:28:03,036 --> 01:28:05,476
you're very, like the on average is less than one per block.

1949
01:28:05,576 --> 01:28:09,156
So right now, the rate limiting wouldn't affect anyone on average.

1950
01:28:09,296 --> 01:28:11,116
Could you break down the rate limiting just for their play?

1951
01:28:11,396 --> 01:28:11,636
Yes.

1952
01:28:11,756 --> 01:28:14,696
So the idea is that you could set a rule where the miners

1953
01:28:14,696 --> 01:28:17,316
could only include like the legacy addresses

1954
01:28:17,316 --> 01:28:18,476
which are vulnerable to quantum.

1955
01:28:18,696 --> 01:28:20,256
You could basically say that they're only allowed

1956
01:28:20,256 --> 01:28:22,096
to include one of those spends per block.

1957
01:28:22,096 --> 01:28:25,016
So quantum comes along, all the lost coins

1958
01:28:25,016 --> 01:28:26,396
that we're going to upgrade, upgrade.

1959
01:28:26,936 --> 01:28:28,676
The ones who don't, we presume they're lost

1960
01:28:28,676 --> 01:28:29,396
and going to get stolen.

1961
01:28:29,396 --> 01:28:42,461
Quantum shows up and they don steal them all in one big chunk they steal them one per block They have to drip feed them out Drip feed them Now the other thing I think is also worth thinking about Just quickly on that there also an interesting dynamic

1962
01:28:42,461 --> 01:28:45,821
where, say, quantum computers can steal coins from these old addresses.

1963
01:28:46,921 --> 01:28:49,501
There's then a fee dynamic that goes into it,

1964
01:28:49,561 --> 01:28:52,141
where, say, you have a UTXO that has 50 Bitcoin on it.

1965
01:28:52,881 --> 01:28:54,901
You want to steal that as quickly as possible

1966
01:28:54,901 --> 01:28:57,921
before someone who owns that Bitcoin upgrades.

1967
01:28:58,901 --> 01:29:00,781
So what do you put in as a fee

1968
01:29:00,781 --> 01:29:03,121
to make sure you're the one transaction in the next block?

1969
01:29:03,261 --> 01:29:04,321
And it might end up,

1970
01:29:04,421 --> 01:29:06,141
instead of giving all those coins back to the market,

1971
01:29:06,221 --> 01:29:07,041
just give them to the miners.

1972
01:29:07,321 --> 01:29:08,281
Well, that's an interesting thing.

1973
01:29:08,361 --> 01:29:09,721
And I think that comes down to the next point,

1974
01:29:09,761 --> 01:29:11,821
which is who is going to invent this quantum computer?

1975
01:29:12,641 --> 01:29:14,341
Because IBM invented it.

1976
01:29:14,941 --> 01:29:15,581
What are they going to do?

1977
01:29:15,661 --> 01:29:16,681
Steal Satoshi's coins?

1978
01:29:16,861 --> 01:29:17,461
Like, what are you going to do?

1979
01:29:17,461 --> 01:29:18,521
Launder it through Binance?

1980
01:29:18,621 --> 01:29:20,941
Like, you're going to get a benevolent dictator, most likely.

1981
01:29:21,001 --> 01:29:23,101
It's going to be Chinese or US government.

1982
01:29:23,461 --> 01:29:25,181
It's going to be a high-flying tech company.

1983
01:29:25,381 --> 01:29:26,821
And if you're unlucky, it'll be North Korea.

1984
01:29:27,101 --> 01:29:27,201
Yeah.

1985
01:29:27,301 --> 01:29:27,461
Right?

1986
01:29:27,461 --> 01:29:30,341
it's not going to be North Korea. Exactly. So you've got to think about like,

1987
01:29:30,421 --> 01:29:34,881
who is actually going to be the one to crack this quantum thing? What are they going to do? Start

1988
01:29:34,881 --> 01:29:39,381
ripping into banks? Like, I don't think so. And again, it depends on access and all these types

1989
01:29:39,381 --> 01:29:44,261
of things. Irrespective. I actually think all that stuff is kind of irrelevant. The threat,

1990
01:29:44,381 --> 01:29:49,401
if you run the human experiment long enough, we will eventually break elliptic curve photography

1991
01:29:49,401 --> 01:29:54,001
because we're smart. Don't bet against innovation. I also don't want to bet against innovation by,

1992
01:29:54,001 --> 01:29:56,201
I certainly don't think Bitcoin's going to die.

1993
01:29:56,901 --> 01:29:58,161
I think the coins come back to market.

1994
01:29:58,401 --> 01:29:59,901
I think that's a separate conversation

1995
01:29:59,901 --> 01:30:02,861
and it's a mistake to cloud the tech

1996
01:30:02,861 --> 01:30:04,841
with that decision.

1997
01:30:05,281 --> 01:30:05,941
Separate the two,

1998
01:30:06,241 --> 01:30:08,281
get the option for people to upgrade first,

1999
01:30:08,641 --> 01:30:09,681
do the requisite work.

2000
01:30:10,161 --> 01:30:12,341
If we as Bitcoiners solve that problem

2001
01:30:12,341 --> 01:30:13,801
in the next 12 months,

2002
01:30:13,881 --> 01:30:14,901
just what we're going to do,

2003
01:30:15,141 --> 01:30:16,081
have the plan,

2004
01:30:17,301 --> 01:30:18,121
what's the FUD?

2005
01:30:18,461 --> 01:30:20,161
What FUD is left?

2006
01:30:20,161 --> 01:30:21,181
On that point though,

2007
01:30:21,221 --> 01:30:23,541
I think there's a really short-sighted view

2008
01:30:23,541 --> 01:30:24,821
on the sort of market impact

2009
01:30:24,821 --> 01:30:26,181
of all these coins coming back to market

2010
01:30:26,181 --> 01:30:27,401
in that, like, to me,

2011
01:30:27,441 --> 01:30:28,221
I agree with you totally.

2012
01:30:28,521 --> 01:30:29,681
Bitcoin enshrines property rights.

2013
01:30:29,801 --> 01:30:30,641
That's like one of the

2014
01:30:30,641 --> 01:30:32,321
absolute fundamental things to me.

2015
01:30:32,401 --> 01:30:33,961
So if we as Bitcoiners say,

2016
01:30:34,221 --> 01:30:35,241
we're going to freeze those funds

2017
01:30:35,241 --> 01:30:36,601
so a bad actor down the road doesn't,

2018
01:30:36,681 --> 01:30:37,701
then the property rights are broken.

2019
01:30:37,801 --> 01:30:38,421
Agree, agree.

2020
01:30:38,421 --> 01:30:39,201
And so if that happens-

2021
01:30:39,201 --> 01:30:40,241
You break the idea of Bitcoin.

2022
01:30:40,281 --> 01:30:41,081
And if that happens,

2023
01:30:41,201 --> 01:30:42,901
what should the price of Bitcoin be?

2024
01:30:43,041 --> 01:30:44,301
And to me, it's far lower.

2025
01:30:44,461 --> 01:30:44,701
Agree.

2026
01:30:44,741 --> 01:30:45,921
So like, even though there might be

2027
01:30:45,921 --> 01:30:47,041
short-term impact on the market,

2028
01:30:47,041 --> 01:30:49,061
if these coins do go to like bad actors,

2029
01:30:49,161 --> 01:30:49,821
they dump them.

2030
01:30:50,281 --> 01:30:52,421
Like, in the other scenario,

2031
01:30:52,421 --> 01:30:54,921
Bitcoin doesn't have the same future value anyway.

2032
01:30:54,921 --> 01:30:57,261
So it's actually a really short-sighted way of looking at it.

2033
01:30:57,261 --> 01:31:00,421
I would put it in the realm of reputations take forever to build

2034
01:31:00,421 --> 01:31:02,161
and one bad tweet to destroy.

2035
01:31:02,461 --> 01:31:04,721
And I think that's more or less the way I think about this.

2036
01:31:04,921 --> 01:31:08,081
We've built such a tremendous thing with Bitcoin.

2037
01:31:08,661 --> 01:31:11,621
It will take one mistake like that to affect,

2038
01:31:11,861 --> 01:31:13,781
you can't undo that from the idea.

2039
01:31:13,881 --> 01:31:15,981
You're actually hitting the idea of Bitcoin.

2040
01:31:16,701 --> 01:31:19,141
And if you take that to its log, for me,

2041
01:31:19,281 --> 01:31:20,881
if I take that to its logical conclusion,

2042
01:31:21,461 --> 01:31:26,461
I don't believe that the price is something we should care about

2043
01:31:26,461 --> 01:31:27,841
when we make consensus changes.

2044
01:31:28,061 --> 01:31:32,001
When we make consensus changes, that should be about the security

2045
01:31:32,001 --> 01:31:35,721
and the decentralization and the properties that make Bitcoin

2046
01:31:35,721 --> 01:31:37,021
worth something.

2047
01:31:37,361 --> 01:31:38,741
The market will then value that.

2048
01:31:38,921 --> 01:31:41,541
If we start making decisions because we're afraid of Satoshi's coins,

2049
01:31:41,621 --> 01:31:43,921
which, by the way, Satoshi's coins come back to market,

2050
01:31:44,341 --> 01:31:46,221
they're going to auction, and I don't know about you,

2051
01:31:46,241 --> 01:31:48,141
but I'm going to buy some for sentimental value.

2052
01:31:48,321 --> 01:31:50,721
How many Bitcoiners are going to go buy a million stats

2053
01:31:50,721 --> 01:31:51,521
of Satoshi's coins.

2054
01:31:51,521 --> 01:31:52,761
I'm totally let go.

2055
01:31:52,761 --> 01:31:54,261
It's the ultimate ordinal.

2056
01:31:54,261 --> 01:31:56,101
I don't, yeah.

2057
01:31:56,101 --> 01:32:07,506
It my my my rare set Um I don think you know I really just don think that anyone gonna aren the ordinance guys gonna go nuts over that there your rare sets right um no look i i think

2058
01:32:07,506 --> 01:32:13,586
the um the idea is build the tech have the option let's have the conversation now i'm not smart

2059
01:32:13,586 --> 01:32:16,546
enough to work it out but i think more public discussion about this is going to be really

2060
01:32:16,546 --> 01:32:21,346
healthy yeah it's going to set up become just a tremendous tremendous road ahead if bitcoin has

2061
01:32:21,346 --> 01:32:25,586
freeze that that's the equivalent of the us freezing russian treasury i fully agree i fully

2062
01:32:25,586 --> 01:32:26,446
Same framework.

2063
01:32:26,506 --> 01:32:30,086
If you freeze Satoshi's coins on a potential

2064
01:32:30,086 --> 01:32:31,166
that quantum is going to come out,

2065
01:32:31,566 --> 01:32:34,266
there's older coins that are going to be aging as well.

2066
01:32:34,706 --> 01:32:37,286
So do you start freezing more?

2067
01:32:37,286 --> 01:32:38,526
Well, it'll depend on the address format.

2068
01:32:38,586 --> 01:32:39,046
Address format.

2069
01:32:39,046 --> 01:32:39,386
Yeah.

2070
01:32:40,046 --> 01:32:42,806
But it would be a monumental mistake.

2071
01:32:43,046 --> 01:32:44,106
And more importantly,

2072
01:32:44,186 --> 01:32:46,186
I actually think from a pragmatic standpoint,

2073
01:32:46,526 --> 01:32:48,626
I believe we can come to consensus on this.

2074
01:32:49,106 --> 01:32:50,306
I think there's zero chance

2075
01:32:50,306 --> 01:32:51,626
we ever come to consensus on this

2076
01:32:51,626 --> 01:32:53,906
because immediately I'm not changing anything.

2077
01:32:54,166 --> 01:32:55,526
So for me, my node says no.

2078
01:32:55,586 --> 01:32:56,786
there'll be a lot of people

2079
01:32:56,786 --> 01:32:57,326
in that same camp

2080
01:32:57,326 --> 01:32:57,906
and there's a lot of people

2081
01:32:57,906 --> 01:32:58,446
who want to freeze it

2082
01:32:58,446 --> 01:32:58,766
because they don't want

2083
01:32:58,766 --> 01:32:59,406
the market impact

2084
01:32:59,406 --> 01:33:01,446
we will never hit consensus

2085
01:33:01,446 --> 01:33:02,446
on freezing the coins

2086
01:33:02,446 --> 01:33:03,366
I'll take an airdrop

2087
01:33:03,366 --> 01:33:03,966
therefore

2088
01:33:03,966 --> 01:33:04,706
exactly

2089
01:33:04,706 --> 01:33:05,206
therefore

2090
01:33:05,206 --> 01:33:06,666
the base case for me

2091
01:33:06,666 --> 01:33:07,566
is you spend time

2092
01:33:07,566 --> 01:33:08,246
arguing over this

2093
01:33:08,246 --> 01:33:09,186
you're going to waste time

2094
01:33:09,186 --> 01:33:10,806
let's focus on this

2095
01:33:10,806 --> 01:33:11,066
yeah

2096
01:33:11,066 --> 01:33:11,946
makes sense

2097
01:33:11,946 --> 01:33:13,406
this has been fun

2098
01:33:13,406 --> 01:33:14,146
it's been really good

2099
01:33:14,146 --> 01:33:14,986
in person

2100
01:33:14,986 --> 01:33:15,846
it's way better

2101
01:33:15,846 --> 01:33:16,566
it's way better

2102
01:33:16,566 --> 01:33:18,426
well I'll come down to Sydney

2103
01:33:18,426 --> 01:33:18,726
whenever

2104
01:33:18,726 --> 01:33:19,506
maybe we just

2105
01:33:19,506 --> 01:33:20,406
refuse to do

2106
01:33:20,406 --> 01:33:21,546
remote shows from now on

2107
01:33:21,546 --> 01:33:22,526
I'll fly to Brisbane

2108
01:33:22,526 --> 01:33:23,326
there you go

2109
01:33:23,326 --> 01:33:23,666
done

2110
01:33:23,666 --> 01:33:24,106
hell yeah

2111
01:33:24,106 --> 01:33:25,046
alright thank you guys

2112
01:33:25,046 --> 01:33:29,926
appreciate that oh actually before we close check on chain tell everyone about it yeah send us off

2113
01:33:29,926 --> 01:33:36,586
oh well check on chain so we run a newsletter on substack and we basically help hodlers navigate

2114
01:33:36,586 --> 01:33:41,526
the volatility that's kind of our major kind of selling point where basically your bitcoin personal

2115
01:33:41,526 --> 01:33:46,946
trainer we have a big community now we have a couple of chats we also have check on chain orange

2116
01:33:46,946 --> 01:33:52,326
which is for more institutional uh larger investors and we have a private telegram there a lot a lot

2117
01:33:52,326 --> 01:33:57,606
of insights are shared and yet we generally just want to give people that data driven approach

2118
01:33:57,606 --> 01:34:02,266
to stay calm stop looking at the price chart stop looking at x and believing any narrative and

2119
01:34:02,266 --> 01:34:08,286
that big anxiety that builds up when kind of crazy movements happen our job is to help guide you

2120
01:34:08,286 --> 01:34:15,906
through that so yeah we work every day we fucking love it uh we talk about this 24 7 um and yeah

2121
01:34:15,906 --> 01:34:21,446
come join us come along with the ride and it's gonna be a fun next year honestly my main motivator

2122
01:34:21,446 --> 01:34:28,126
i don't make price predictions i price calls i just want people to have made their decisions

2123
01:34:28,126 --> 01:34:33,546
which is the only thing you can control months before you need to use it and if you make a

2124
01:34:33,546 --> 01:34:39,166
decision like let's say we got to 95k and we just bounced to all-time highs totally was a valid

2125
01:34:39,166 --> 01:34:45,186
thing if we didn't need our bear market decision framework for what am i going to do at 82 that's

2126
01:34:45,186 --> 01:34:50,546
great i'll put it in my back pocket and i'll use it when it happens now that we're at 82 i don't

2127
01:34:50,546 --> 01:34:54,366
want any of my subscribers to ever feel like a deer in the headlights. Not because I can predict

2128
01:34:54,366 --> 01:34:57,146
that it was going to happen, but because we just thought about that scenario as a possibility

2129
01:34:57,146 --> 01:35:01,806
ahead of time. So prepare. That's it. You prepare yourself. Can't predict, just prepare for it.

2130
01:35:02,006 --> 01:35:04,626
I love it. It's one of the best newsletters in the space. I read everyone.

2131
01:35:04,826 --> 01:35:05,246
Thank you, man.

2132
01:35:05,246 --> 01:35:05,606
Thank you, man.

2133
01:35:05,686 --> 01:35:06,406
Yeah, you guys are awesome.

2134
01:35:06,686 --> 01:35:07,066
Thank you, man.

2135
01:35:07,066 --> 01:35:08,666
Thank you for listening, too, man. Thanks for inviting me.

2136
01:35:08,766 --> 01:35:09,306
Of course.

2137
01:35:20,546 --> 01:35:50,526
Thank you.