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Bitcoin going from $1 trillion to $100 or more, that's the turning point.

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Bitcoin needs capital. If it's going to flip gold and it's going to flip fiat,

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actually that's what we're really talking about is ending fiat.

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Every cycle we're roughly 10x higher, you know, 10 to 100x more capital needs to move the price.

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We're at this precipice where money is going to be redefined by going from gold to energy secured ledger.

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secured ledger. Gold was an atoms secured ledger. It's a paperization of a liquidity crisis. It's a

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very, very recent thing since 1971. It doesn't go back 6,000 years. It's not going to go forward

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in the next few thousand years either. And that'll collapse soon. And that the social consensus is,

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trust me, bro, I'm good for it by the Fed, right? That's how we manage our ledger right now.

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We're buying money for the next thousands of years.

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Willie Woo, good to see you back, man.

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You were a regular on what Bitcoin did a few years ago, and I think the last time I saw you was in Sydney,

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which I think that was like 2023?

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Two years ago, I think.

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Yeah.

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How have you been?

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Good, yeah.

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You kind of stepped away from doing the podcast thing.

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Yep, I did.

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Why did you do that?

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Well, first we had our firstborn, right?

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And also it was a beer market.

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There was also, you know,

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probably off the back of Pete McCormick's show,

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like people started to recognize me everywhere.

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Like in, you know, random places.

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And, you know, I started thinking about OPSEC and having children and having the children there.

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We've got a second now.

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So I took some time out.

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And, yeah, I mean, it was part OPSEC.

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It was also I thought that the profile got a bit too high.

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And I did want to take a break, you know, newborn, do a bit of concentration on family life.

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um yeah so and also we did this big because we're travelers in our family and we

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we um we took the opportunity when covid um sort of opened up again we we did this big world trip

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and um it's really hard to um jump on podcasts and do you know content and so forth when all

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that's happening so so just for family time well um were you keeping tabs on bitcoin during that

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yes i was and oh yeah i forgot i how could i forget we i was i founded a um a hedge fund right

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a fund of funds and that took a lot of time um so that was like february 2022 so it took a while to

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get that up and running and it was a deep sort of learning process for myself because you know

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i didn't know too much about um the trade fire world and how do you build hedge funds and so

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forth. So yeah, I was really busy as well. That was the other thing.

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And how's the hedge fund done?

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It's great. It's great now. You know, there was a few lessons to learn, a lot of lessons.

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You know, the hedge fund is around I'm allocating capital to the best managers in the space that

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are trading digital assets. And so, you know, we drew down initially.

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Yeah, that was a rough year to launch in.

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Yeah, the idea was to be more market neutral and we thought we could put some directional

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allocation in there, meaning not actually have long exposure spot.

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It meant these guys should presumably be shorting the market, but it turns out directional

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hedge funds don't really work very well.

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And now we're three and a half years experience and we've got 700 managers tracked in their

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performances.

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Yeah, it's very few of these guys that can actually trade the market in directionality.

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Like 99%, in my opinion, are not investable.

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But yeah, it's a big learning.

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So if 99% of the best traders are not profitable, how are people meant to have a single shot?

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Well, I mean, these guys were quantitative, right?

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So they're meant to be analysts building trading models.

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and the computers make the decision

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and you're hooking onto a feature,

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like a little alpha feature.

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When this happens, then we should be able to trade in

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whatever the formula is.

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And it just turns out, in my opinion,

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that our markets are so nascent, right?

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And every three months,

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the structure of the market keeps changing.

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So you can't actually build a system

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that's changing so quickly.

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And I think only a very few people in the industry

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that can actually do something that's robust,

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meaning everything you look at before you put your money in

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is making money, making money,

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until generally when you put your money in.

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And they start to carry some real RUM,

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and then the market changes,

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and suddenly they're losing a lot of money very quickly.

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So, I mean, our funds are market neutral now,

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almost like 98% market neutral.

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We try to get the directionality out of it.

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And so that's a big learning for us.

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When it comes to those like trading algorithms, will all that just be AI or is it already all AI?

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Well, I think it really, you know, if you think about a rent tech, you know, the other famous people that, you know, the mathematicians that sort of broke the whole industry and the maths guys started to build the most successful hedge fund in the world.

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They were very early in machine learning.

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And so I would say it's already in the space.

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It's packet recognition over a lot of them are using the machine learning layer to adjust the core basic algorithm.

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And then there's this new movement of black boxes, which we can't really run due diligence on.

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Is that black box because they're like neural networks and you can't actually tell what's happening in there?

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Yeah, it's something like that, right?

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That saying buy, sell, we don't know exactly what it's doing.

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Yeah.

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And often we get these managers using it and we look at the performance

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and we just can't allocate because it's too performant.

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We can't tell if it's a scam, we can't tell if it's-

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Oh, really?

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Yeah, it was a conservative fund, right?

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We're meant to be delivering a very nice, safe return in yields.

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you know yields had a really bad name in our industry

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yeah but you can do it right we run three funds one of them is done with a

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private bank in switzerland and so it's all institutional grade and

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bringing those trade five practices in and you know for me looking at how

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you know yield was done in 2023 to 2022 it's just crazy what happened oh totally

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It's just like when we do yield here, you're looking at the manager, you send an independent person in to overview the operations, to look at any way through incompetence, malice, they can lose money, lose your coins.

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And then it's independently audited, independently accounted for each month.

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all these processes have been around since the 90s and 80s

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in traditional finance and the bank we work with

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they were getting pressure from their clients

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to get access to Madoff's fund back in the day

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and they sent a team over to do this whole process

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and they walked out in the first day saying this is not investable

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and they were one of the very few institutions that protected their clients

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from the biggest Ponzi at its time. And so these are the process you bring in. And that's quite a

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mature process. But in crypto, it's like a joke. Yeah. And presumably, there's still an amount of

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risk with that. But you just know it's like a calculated risk that you can understand.

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Oh, yeah, there's still risk, but we can see all the risks, right? And the risks are the

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exchange counterparties, right? It's not going to be people giving billions of dollars to some

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shady hedge fund. Yeah, or back in the earned products of 2020, I will go through and put it

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on, was it Gemini? And they re-hypothecated to Genesis Trading and then all the hops go. And

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the next thing you know, it's with Alameda who was just buying DGN shit coins, big bags of it.

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Yeah. And no one knew what was happening really. It's funny because at that time,

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I certainly didn't see it coming.

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There were a few people that did.

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I still remember Pierre Richard called it out and said that FTX would fail.

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And that was the first time I ever heard anyone say that.

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And six months later, or whatever it was, he was right.

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Oh, he said six months beforehand?

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Because it was really shady.

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I think it was around three to six months beforehand.

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There was a big amount of Bitcoins that left FTX.

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And SPF said, oh, we're just reshuffling cold storage.

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and that was those transactions that went to Alameda.

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And FTX was, you know, I worked with Glassnode

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and they were a new onboarding to the data sets.

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And I looked at that and I thought, oh, we're probably still,

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you know, Glassnode is still working through the bugs and stuff.

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But it was real, you know, and no one,

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no on-chain person picked up on it, even though it was in the chart.

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And I was trading on it, right?

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I was trading on it at the time.

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On FTX?

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Yeah, that was my main exchange that I traded on.

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And I noticed that there was a run on the bank.

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The balance of Bitcoin started dropping, but not in a big data era kind of way,

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but a granular like, well, these guys know something.

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And so I got off.

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The first thing was I sent the data, the chart, to a hedge fund manager

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that had SPF on the cap table.

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and they were the closest people I knew to FTX

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and they said, oh, don't worry about it.

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They've got billions in the bank, nothing to worry about.

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So they should have known, right?

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Turned out, only the inner circle knew.

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But I pulled my money out thinking even in the 1% chance

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that these guys are wrong, it's not worth it.

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Totally.

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And so I got off 48 hours before.

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Oh, damn, it was close.

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Yeah, yeah.

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Because that run of the bank started like maybe four days beforehand.

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So with what we do now, we wrap it.

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We wrap, we monitor all of these exchanges.

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Because though a lot of them aren't properly regulated,

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we have a blockchain that's like a 10-minute live audit.

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Yeah.

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The funniest thing about FTX at that time is everyone was saying

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how good their OPSEC was because no one knew where their coins were

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and it just turned out they had one.

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Oh, my God.

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That was crazy.

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That was the wildest time I think I've had in Bitcoin in terms of just the unexpected

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consequences of what was happening.

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It was pretty fun.

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Oh my God.

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It was.

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So everyone's, you know, he adopted all the, you know, the celebs.

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The press was just puffing him up.

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And I think of this as like one in 10 year event.

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Hopefully that's the last one because it's getting quite robust now.

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Yeah.

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Very quickly.

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The last one was Mt. Gox, you know, but all the other stuff in between just PALS compared to FTX and Mt. Gox.

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Yeah, I wasn't there for Mt. Gox, but watching that as someone who just has Bitcoin in cold storage, I mean, it was entertaining for sure.

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Yeah, right. Yeah. Except like the market was crashing.

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Yeah.

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Well, I was near the bottom anyway.

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Yeah. Maybe let's take a fast forward from there. What do you think of how the Bitcoin

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market's matured since 2023? I mean, so much. I think the biggest thing has been BlackRock's ETF.

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I think before that, if you were to look at the bigger picture of $900 trillion of wealth assets

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and Bitcoin at the time was only $1 trillion.

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Most wealth managers would be potentially risking their jobs,

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their client base if they recommended Bitcoin.

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And then when Larry Fink opened that up, they made it, you know,

229
00:15:12,460 --> 00:15:16,640
he moved Overton window in a way kind of like he,

230
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,780
a wealth manager could now recommend Bitcoin.

231
00:15:20,780 --> 00:15:35,500
And I was talking to, you know, we work with the Swiss private bank and the banker there who's been there all his life, you know, managing wealth said that I had visited him a year beforehand.

232
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,540
And he said, you know, I'm not a believer in this Bitcoin stuff.

233
00:15:41,940 --> 00:15:45,480
A year later after the ETF, he said, I just bought some.

234
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:51,000
and the reason why he bought it was because I know exactly what happens with this.

235
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,440
Once it's on that ETF, once BlackRock's on it,

236
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,780
I'm going to push this product out to the world

237
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and everyone will market Bitcoin.

238
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,300
And so I think in terms of Bitcoin going from $1 trillion

239
00:16:02,300 --> 00:16:09,680
to $100 or more that we all think about, that's the turning point.

240
00:16:10,740 --> 00:16:15,200
So the industry's matured, the infrastructure's matured,

241
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:16,960
after FTX.

242
00:16:21,180 --> 00:16:24,020
Exchanges always wanted to hold the coins.

243
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:29,400
Now it's even Binance is now offering custody solutions

244
00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:33,420
where the coins are held in a tri-party manner.

245
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It's not on the exchange and it's mirrored in.

246
00:16:36,100 --> 00:16:37,440
And so that's much more institutional.

247
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:39,120
So that's rolling through.

248
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,260
You've got people like Fidelity offering custody

249
00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:43,100
and that's mirroring to the exchanges.

250
00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:48,300
So TradeFi is coming in and hardening up the exchange rails a lot.

251
00:16:49,580 --> 00:16:55,700
And obviously, it's not my warehouse, but you just see how the new administration has just unlocked everything.

252
00:16:56,140 --> 00:16:57,360
Everything can move forward.

253
00:16:57,740 --> 00:17:02,580
Bitcoin can be considered when taking out a real estate loan.

254
00:17:03,180 --> 00:17:05,960
There's a lot more coming, I think.

255
00:17:06,120 --> 00:17:10,560
And just recently, you can hold it in your 401k, I think, in the US.

256
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,920
I mean, I know you obviously can through the other instruments.

257
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:15,780
I didn't know you could hold it directly in your 401k.

258
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:16,520
You can in Australia.

259
00:17:16,700 --> 00:17:18,980
You can self-custody Bitcoin in your retirement fund in Australia.

260
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,120
It just came out, I think, a couple of days ago.

261
00:17:22,360 --> 00:17:24,680
So it's not implemented yet.

262
00:17:25,140 --> 00:17:30,240
But yeah, I don't know the details exactly what it is, whether or not it's a –

263
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:31,680
That's a massive thing.

264
00:17:32,020 --> 00:17:35,740
Can you hold a BlackRock ETF of Bitcoin in the past?

265
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:36,740
In a 401k?

266
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:37,060
Yeah.

267
00:17:37,120 --> 00:17:37,680
I think so, yeah.

268
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:38,060
Okay.

269
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,060
Then it must be like self-custody.

270
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,040
Hey, I'm not, I haven't looked at it.

271
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:42,900
I could be wrong on that too.

272
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:43,360
I don't know.

273
00:17:43,420 --> 00:17:44,080
I've not seen that.

274
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,880
But like all these things are just Bitcoin maturing.

275
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,680
With the ETFs, obviously you kind of made your name

276
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:52,660
with on-chain data.

277
00:17:53,020 --> 00:17:54,920
How much do they impact what you can do

278
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,060
and what you can actually see on-chain?

279
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,140
Is it still a useful tool?

280
00:17:58,300 --> 00:17:59,220
Oh yeah, it's great.

281
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:12,048
You know when I did the when I was on the show every month here with Pete I think Onchain was four years old The early signals were 2016

282
00:18:13,748 --> 00:18:16,368
So it's another five years, nine years into it now.

283
00:18:16,728 --> 00:18:20,068
And it turns out that most of the stuff that we were doing,

284
00:18:20,228 --> 00:18:22,248
a lot of it's good for narrative.

285
00:18:22,948 --> 00:18:25,308
You can say the whales are coming in and this sort of stuff.

286
00:18:25,468 --> 00:18:26,648
But in terms of pricing signal,

287
00:18:27,428 --> 00:18:29,288
it's only a small subset that really works.

288
00:18:29,288 --> 00:18:32,008
But it works great.

289
00:18:32,528 --> 00:18:34,168
Because I see even today,

290
00:18:34,948 --> 00:18:39,408
a lot of people are tracking the flows into the ETFs.

291
00:18:41,788 --> 00:18:43,668
Well, it's only a subset of the flows.

292
00:18:43,788 --> 00:18:44,848
Turns out it's a minority.

293
00:18:45,888 --> 00:18:46,508
Why is that?

294
00:18:47,608 --> 00:18:48,308
I don't know why.

295
00:18:48,548 --> 00:18:50,328
It's just, it's small.

296
00:18:50,648 --> 00:18:52,488
It's probably one-fifth to,

297
00:18:53,168 --> 00:18:54,008
that's significant,

298
00:18:54,168 --> 00:18:56,808
but one-fifth to one-tenth of the daily flows.

299
00:18:56,808 --> 00:19:01,308
The majority of Bitcoin that's flowing is naked on the network.

300
00:19:01,588 --> 00:19:05,048
It's not wrapped up in equity wrappers.

301
00:19:06,568 --> 00:19:09,848
But even so, you can think of the ETFs in aggregate

302
00:19:09,848 --> 00:19:13,548
are just a closed sort of box.

303
00:19:14,288 --> 00:19:17,628
And if people are buying and selling inside that, it's neutral.

304
00:19:18,068 --> 00:19:20,968
If they want more, then more is coming across their membrane.

305
00:19:21,508 --> 00:19:22,468
That's a demand.

306
00:19:22,608 --> 00:19:23,608
And you can look at that.

307
00:19:24,168 --> 00:19:25,528
But we have something better.

308
00:19:25,528 --> 00:19:31,108
We have a UTXO set and you can look at every single coin that's moving across the network.

309
00:19:31,228 --> 00:19:35,288
So you're not limited to looking at the small black box that's run on Wall Street.

310
00:19:35,428 --> 00:19:37,088
You're looking at the entire network.

311
00:19:37,568 --> 00:19:44,648
Just because someone's buying or the family offices are buying inside these ETFs instruments,

312
00:19:45,548 --> 00:19:50,628
we could have Asian whales dumping by the tens of thousands and doesn't tell you much.

313
00:19:51,128 --> 00:19:55,288
Usually Asia's more sophisticated than the trade historically.

314
00:19:55,528 --> 00:19:58,408
Asia has more capital.

315
00:19:59,228 --> 00:20:01,108
I think it's roughly, as an estimate,

316
00:20:01,668 --> 00:20:05,268
Asia equals Europe plus America combined in terms of liquidity.

317
00:20:05,448 --> 00:20:05,708
Really?

318
00:20:06,048 --> 00:20:06,368
Yeah.

319
00:20:06,608 --> 00:20:08,488
And you'll see that that's starting to be recognized

320
00:20:08,488 --> 00:20:14,828
because post-COVID token 2049 started blowing up

321
00:20:14,828 --> 00:20:18,068
and I started seeing Americans, Europeans turning up to this Asia conference

322
00:20:18,068 --> 00:20:20,368
because there's so much that's happening there.

323
00:20:21,568 --> 00:20:25,488
But, yeah, back to the point is that we have a UTXO set.

324
00:20:25,528 --> 00:20:34,488
So we can look at the flows across the entire network and know the capital coming in any day of the year.

325
00:20:34,488 --> 00:20:43,048
RAOUL PAL, Are you surprised that this bull market, I think one of the things that make it different to previous ones is that price is ripping, but mempools are empty.

326
00:20:43,048 --> 00:20:49,368
Yeah, I haven't looked at mempool for a long time.

327
00:20:49,368 --> 00:20:55,768
The thing is, I haven't looked into mempool to go, why?

328
00:20:55,768 --> 00:20:59,288
But you must be seeing less activity on chain though.

329
00:21:02,648 --> 00:21:06,888
I'm not tracking the stuff that's irrelevant to me.

330
00:21:06,888 --> 00:21:15,168
me. The relevant things to me are wallets or the activity of the wallets. I'm only now tracking

331
00:21:15,168 --> 00:21:23,588
liquidity flows. So I don't care if it's like 500 wallets instead of 50,000 it used to be.

332
00:21:24,028 --> 00:21:28,888
I'm looking at how much capital. The capital is what moves it and that's getting bigger and bigger

333
00:21:28,888 --> 00:21:35,288
and bigger. So that gives you an idea of what's happening. Maybe we're moving to layer twos. You

334
00:21:35,288 --> 00:21:43,808
might call an ETF layer two. But ultimately, most people are finding use and not using the main

335
00:21:43,808 --> 00:21:52,548
chain apart from a clearing chain, I guess, between all of these other layers, ETFs being one,

336
00:21:52,628 --> 00:21:57,948
I would say. So you're seeing less transactions, but much larger transactions, which is obviously,

337
00:21:58,208 --> 00:22:01,188
I mean, that makes total sense with the kind of institutionalization of Bitcoin.

338
00:22:01,188 --> 00:22:06,308
Are you surprised that this cycle we've not really seen retail come in in the same way

339
00:22:06,308 --> 00:22:07,308
yet?

340
00:22:07,308 --> 00:22:08,808
Or do you think that will still happen?

341
00:22:08,808 --> 00:22:14,568
Yeah, I think there's been a few surprising things, right?

342
00:22:14,568 --> 00:22:17,168
I think retail will come in.

343
00:22:17,168 --> 00:22:19,228
I think they've always been there.

344
00:22:19,228 --> 00:22:23,948
It's just they're not really moving the needle.

345
00:22:23,948 --> 00:22:30,968
And every cycle we're roughly 10x higher or in the early days, 100x higher in price, which

346
00:22:30,968 --> 00:22:37,588
which also means, you know, 10 to 100x more capital needs to move the price.

347
00:22:38,688 --> 00:22:43,168
And like the reality of the wealth distribution,

348
00:22:43,448 --> 00:22:46,308
when you talk about what does retail have,

349
00:22:46,408 --> 00:22:50,268
what does the concentrated capital pools,

350
00:22:50,268 --> 00:22:54,248
which still might be, you know, owned by retail,

351
00:22:54,688 --> 00:22:56,728
but going through, you know.

352
00:22:56,988 --> 00:22:57,368
ETF wrapper.

353
00:22:58,008 --> 00:23:00,808
Yeah, or in a pension fund.

354
00:23:00,968 --> 00:23:06,088
or it's retail money but it's managed by a manager who's like deciding,

355
00:23:06,088 --> 00:23:10,648
yeah, let's put a 3% allocation into Bitcoin and then boom,

356
00:23:10,648 --> 00:23:14,568
you've got billion size tickets.

357
00:23:17,048 --> 00:23:19,608
I think those are the things that are mattering now.

358
00:23:22,008 --> 00:23:26,328
Even talking to Daniel Batten, the work he's done with pension funds,

359
00:23:26,328 --> 00:23:30,008
sovereign funds, looking at the capital pools they have,

360
00:23:30,008 --> 00:23:36,348
I think the number is around $30 trillion that they manage out of that $900 trillion.

361
00:23:37,808 --> 00:23:45,248
And for a lot of them, they can't allocate to Bitcoin because they believe that it's bad for the environment.

362
00:23:45,488 --> 00:23:47,148
It's against the ESG agenda.

363
00:23:47,828 --> 00:23:55,648
So dismantling that, these are the things we have to dismantle in the industry is all the barriers stopping the big capital pools,

364
00:23:55,648 --> 00:23:59,148
which are still owned by retail ultimately

365
00:23:59,148 --> 00:24:02,188
but managed by professionals for that to really come in.

366
00:24:02,868 --> 00:24:04,088
But I mean, that makes sense.

367
00:24:04,148 --> 00:24:06,688
And Daniel's doing an amazing job at combating that narrative.

368
00:24:07,608 --> 00:24:11,068
I also think maybe with like Larry Fink's change of positioning,

369
00:24:11,248 --> 00:24:13,848
maybe ESG is going to become a less relevant thing

370
00:24:13,848 --> 00:24:16,148
that people have to consider before allocating capital.

371
00:24:17,008 --> 00:24:19,348
Like he's kind of backed away from the ESG narrative

372
00:24:19,348 --> 00:24:20,988
and moved towards the Bitcoin narrative.

373
00:24:21,268 --> 00:24:23,688
And I think also with AI and high-power compute

374
00:24:23,688 --> 00:24:25,048
and everything that's happening there,

375
00:24:25,048 --> 00:24:27,508
the kind of mining flood seems to be going away.

376
00:24:27,788 --> 00:24:29,108
I don't know if you're seeing the same thing.

377
00:24:29,848 --> 00:24:32,128
Yeah, the mining flood on energy use?

378
00:24:32,128 --> 00:24:32,348
Yeah.

379
00:24:32,508 --> 00:24:33,248
Yeah, yeah.

380
00:24:34,048 --> 00:24:38,108
I actually think it's going away with Larry.

381
00:24:38,368 --> 00:24:40,948
Larry would have a big impact, I would say.

382
00:24:41,528 --> 00:24:43,228
You see the media switched,

383
00:24:43,228 --> 00:24:47,168
and I think that might just be around Larry

384
00:24:47,168 --> 00:24:49,088
and who owns all of these.

385
00:24:50,328 --> 00:24:51,108
I think, what is it?

386
00:24:51,108 --> 00:24:55,888
BlackRock has 15% voting power of the entire equity markets in the US.

387
00:24:55,968 --> 00:24:56,388
Is that true?

388
00:24:56,448 --> 00:24:57,028
That's insane.

389
00:24:57,208 --> 00:24:58,968
Yeah, because they manage, what is it?

390
00:24:59,188 --> 00:24:59,948
What's the number?

391
00:25:00,128 --> 00:25:01,268
10, $14 trillion?

392
00:25:01,648 --> 00:25:02,268
Trillions of dollars.

393
00:25:02,368 --> 00:25:02,828
I'll find out.

394
00:25:02,828 --> 00:25:11,528
Yeah, there's only $110 trillion of public equities in the world.

395
00:25:12,028 --> 00:25:21,088
And I talked to someone from BlackRock who actually did the voting, right?

396
00:25:21,108 --> 00:25:28,108
BlackRock make, you know, they manage other people's capital,

397
00:25:28,428 --> 00:25:29,748
but who gets the vote?

398
00:25:30,488 --> 00:25:31,528
BlackRock gets the vote,

399
00:25:32,148 --> 00:25:34,568
even though shareholding is by their investors.

400
00:25:34,828 --> 00:25:34,968
Yeah.

401
00:25:35,168 --> 00:25:36,468
And that's very powerful.

402
00:25:36,808 --> 00:25:38,888
And I think they're pretty high on all the cap tables,

403
00:25:39,028 --> 00:25:40,088
including the media companies.

404
00:25:41,108 --> 00:25:41,988
I mean, that's one side.

405
00:25:42,028 --> 00:25:43,528
And the other side is the pure research

406
00:25:43,528 --> 00:25:46,048
that people like Daniel and his cohort are doing.

407
00:25:46,808 --> 00:25:49,128
I mean, I just looked up $10 trillion under management.

408
00:25:49,128 --> 00:25:54,848
And whenever you look at the major shareholders in any company, it's always them at the top of them.

409
00:25:55,528 --> 00:25:59,488
And people like to put that down as a conspiracy, but it's just to do with size.

410
00:26:00,068 --> 00:26:00,288
Yeah.

411
00:26:00,448 --> 00:26:04,508
And I think we always think BlackRock is buying.

412
00:26:04,708 --> 00:26:05,728
It's not that they're buying.

413
00:26:05,788 --> 00:26:06,768
Their clients are buying.

414
00:26:07,468 --> 00:26:09,548
They're just the conduit.

415
00:26:11,208 --> 00:26:12,788
And I don't know.

416
00:26:13,128 --> 00:26:17,948
It's like when all of us buy, say, through BlackRock and we get no vote,

417
00:26:17,948 --> 00:26:19,868
I think that something should be addressed there.

418
00:26:20,588 --> 00:26:22,668
It shouldn't be BlackRock deciding on the vote.

419
00:26:23,388 --> 00:26:25,868
This is why people should just buy and hold self-custody Bitcoin.

420
00:26:26,828 --> 00:26:30,348
Well, it's got nothing to do with ownership and, you know,

421
00:26:30,908 --> 00:26:32,508
a media company or something.

422
00:26:32,508 --> 00:26:32,908
True.

423
00:26:32,908 --> 00:26:33,308
Yeah.

424
00:26:34,108 --> 00:26:36,988
Bitcoin is absolutely ripping and in every bull market,

425
00:26:36,988 --> 00:26:39,548
there's always a new wave of investors and with it,

426
00:26:39,548 --> 00:26:42,588
a flood of new companies, new products and new promises.

427
00:26:42,588 --> 00:26:43,788
But if you've been around long enough,

428
00:26:43,788 --> 00:26:45,868
you've seen how this story ends for a lot of them.

429
00:26:45,868 --> 00:26:47,788
Some cut corners, take risks with your money,

430
00:26:47,788 --> 00:26:52,228
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432
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433
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435
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visit iron.com to learn more which is i-r-e-n.com so in terms of like the market maturing this time

456
00:28:49,888 --> 00:28:53,708
looking different um what are the key things you're seeing like with the on-chain data that

457
00:28:53,708 --> 00:29:02,708
make it look different i mean there's much less fomo right now it's very staged buying um

458
00:29:02,708 --> 00:29:08,768
the the capital inflows are very smooth um i've never seen them so smooth before

459
00:29:08,768 --> 00:29:13,708
I put that down to these Bitcoin treasury companies.

460
00:29:13,708 --> 00:29:15,668
Because they just buy us regardless of price.

461
00:29:15,668 --> 00:29:17,568
Yeah, it's like dollar costing average.

462
00:29:18,848 --> 00:29:26,168
Whenever the capital comes, they buy in a staged, and it produces a very smooth inflow.

463
00:29:27,788 --> 00:29:35,028
Whereas in the past, you'd get a little bit of choppiness and then a real run up as the

464
00:29:35,028 --> 00:29:38,148
FOMO comes in and everyone's chasing price and so forth.

465
00:29:38,148 --> 00:29:44,868
So, I mean, you still get those oscillations, but even as it's coming in, it's very smooth.

466
00:29:46,548 --> 00:29:51,748
It's like someone's got sandpaper and rounded out the chart. So I haven't seen that before.

467
00:29:51,748 --> 00:29:55,588
So that's dampening volatility both on the upside and the downside.

468
00:29:55,588 --> 00:30:02,548
It's, yeah, you could say that. I mean, it should do. Like there's a lot of impacts on price.

469
00:30:02,548 --> 00:30:11,108
This is what I call, liquidity flows is really the tailwinds that are either supportive or bearish on price.

470
00:30:11,688 --> 00:30:17,848
But how price moves relative to each hour, each day is much more tactical.

471
00:30:18,228 --> 00:30:19,328
And that's a different overlay.

472
00:30:20,048 --> 00:30:22,848
When you're looking at liquidity flows, these are the fundamentals.

473
00:30:23,248 --> 00:30:27,888
So it's very hard for the price to go against increasing flows coming in.

474
00:30:27,888 --> 00:30:33,168
but it can happen because you might want to like as you I say,

475
00:30:33,968 --> 00:30:38,368
say you're a very high net worth trading whale,

476
00:30:39,968 --> 00:30:45,248
you could bring the price down by selling and then liquidating a whole bunch of people and it will work down.

477
00:30:45,968 --> 00:30:48,128
So there's this sort of tactical game and there's,

478
00:30:51,408 --> 00:30:55,248
I get a whole heads up display, right? I've like, what's the profit situation here?

479
00:30:55,248 --> 00:31:01,968
here? What's the liquidation situation here? Are we overheated anyway through normal mean

480
00:31:01,968 --> 00:31:07,488
revert of, well, price is overextended in one way or the other, meaning I can't push

481
00:31:07,488 --> 00:31:12,488
it this way any further and it's got to rub a band back down. And so there's all this

482
00:31:12,488 --> 00:31:19,428
sort of tactical positioning between all the participants and then you can get a probabilistic

483
00:31:19,428 --> 00:31:25,068
answer of where the price might go in the next, say, three or four days.

484
00:31:25,068 --> 00:31:29,428
But then you've got the fundamental money coming in by the buyers.

485
00:31:29,428 --> 00:31:36,588
And that gives you the long term, it gives you a read over the next one, two,

486
00:31:36,588 --> 00:31:38,988
four, even six weeks out.

487
00:31:38,988 --> 00:31:41,388
And then there's this random walk game that's happening.

488
00:31:41,388 --> 00:31:47,588
So it's a bit complex, but it's a proper full picture of what's going on.

489
00:31:47,588 --> 00:31:52,928
And so in terms of like them being just dollar cost averaging every week or whenever Sailor's

490
00:31:52,928 --> 00:31:58,148
buying, which seems to be every week, what is that doing in terms of like the amount

491
00:31:58,148 --> 00:31:59,228
of leverage in the market?

492
00:31:59,228 --> 00:32:01,928
Because Sailor's taking a little bit of leverage, but he's very low.

493
00:32:02,488 --> 00:32:07,048
And without things like FTX, is the market in a way a healthier spot for that?

494
00:32:10,648 --> 00:32:12,948
It's a different type of leverage, right?

495
00:32:12,948 --> 00:32:19,488
We have like, you know, in these treasury companies, you have multipliers on your actual Bitcoin.

496
00:32:19,628 --> 00:32:21,328
So it's MNAV and it's traded around that.

497
00:32:21,428 --> 00:32:29,608
So you've got, if you're holding the equity, it looks like deleveraging when it goes against you, but you're not being liquidated.

498
00:32:30,168 --> 00:32:35,628
But then the question is, will these treasury companies be actually liquidated?

499
00:32:35,888 --> 00:32:39,268
If they are being, if they can be liquidated, then it's leverage.

500
00:32:39,268 --> 00:32:43,568
and if you look at the debt structuring

501
00:32:43,568 --> 00:32:46,088
under MicroStrategy, it's very robust.

502
00:32:47,208 --> 00:32:50,928
Their debt is 8 to 12 years out,

503
00:32:51,068 --> 00:32:53,268
meaning if they're in an exchange,

504
00:32:53,748 --> 00:32:54,868
they would be liquidated,

505
00:32:55,068 --> 00:32:58,228
but they can't be liquidated to 8 to 12 years out

506
00:32:58,228 --> 00:33:00,128
as long as they're paying their interest bills.

507
00:33:00,128 --> 00:33:02,048
I think they're zero anyway.

508
00:33:02,828 --> 00:33:05,368
So that's quite robust.

509
00:33:05,568 --> 00:33:08,648
Very little kind of standard debt in there.

510
00:33:09,268 --> 00:33:17,708
Um, and then you have things like Metaplanet and Metaplanet do this kind of synthetic ATM

511
00:33:17,708 --> 00:33:23,668
where there's one party here and there's Metaplanet here that's stacking bitcoins.

512
00:33:23,668 --> 00:33:32,428
Um, and this party here, um, is doing market operations and they're taking a big tranche

513
00:33:32,428 --> 00:33:33,428
alone out.

514
00:33:33,428 --> 00:33:38,588
And then they do this sort of, um, they sell out of this position using their warrants and

515
00:33:38,588 --> 00:33:42,868
they re-send money into MetaPlanet to buy Bitcoin.

516
00:33:42,868 --> 00:33:49,708
So what you actually have is this big debt load inside MetaPlanet, and then it gets paid

517
00:33:49,708 --> 00:33:52,268
back as the money comes back in.

518
00:33:52,268 --> 00:33:58,748
And in my opinion, that's in danger of being liquidated because if they get caught off guard

519
00:33:58,748 --> 00:34:03,628
at the very top of the market, the ATM system stops working.

520
00:34:03,628 --> 00:34:09,548
They can't sell it into the market because it relies on the price going up a little bit

521
00:34:09,548 --> 00:34:12,828
and they can sell and then send money in.

522
00:34:13,868 --> 00:34:19,248
So if you get that wrong footed and you've taken another like 300 million, it's getting

523
00:34:19,248 --> 00:34:24,608
bigger each tranche, and you can't sell it through, then you've got to pay that back

524
00:34:24,608 --> 00:34:25,588
by selling your Bitcoin.

525
00:34:25,968 --> 00:34:31,128
And there would be a partial liquidation of MetaPlanet if they don't time the market right.

526
00:34:31,128 --> 00:34:36,268
So with MetaPlanet, you're really banking on them timing the market.

527
00:34:36,448 --> 00:34:37,348
And they're very sophisticated.

528
00:34:37,708 --> 00:34:49,708
I noticed that their last buy, their last significant buy, they unloaded almost 300 million at the very bottom wick of Bitcoin when it dipped in the last consolidation.

529
00:34:50,348 --> 00:34:53,808
And it was actually at a price lower than what was printed on the exchanges.

530
00:34:54,328 --> 00:34:57,348
Is that them putting in that bottom though because they're buying and supporting the market?

531
00:34:57,508 --> 00:34:59,048
Yeah, they absolutely put in that bottom.

532
00:34:59,048 --> 00:35:06,368
Yeah. And so like, obviously, Saylor's like out on his own. He's gotten 600,000, whatever Bitcoin,

533
00:35:06,528 --> 00:35:10,908
maybe more, I don't know. The rest of these, like there's a very long tail of treasury companies

534
00:35:10,908 --> 00:35:15,948
after that. I don't assume after you get to like below the top 10 treasury companies, they really

535
00:35:15,948 --> 00:35:19,548
have a huge impact on the market because cumulatively the coins are like, I don't know,

536
00:35:19,588 --> 00:35:28,428
100,000 coins or something. Yeah. I mean, 100,000 coins, significant amount of coins

537
00:35:28,428 --> 00:35:29,608
in a soft market.

538
00:35:29,868 --> 00:35:31,448
We just saw 80,000 get dumped though.

539
00:35:32,308 --> 00:35:33,448
Yeah, we did.

540
00:35:33,768 --> 00:35:38,148
And it was in an upward part of the bull market

541
00:35:38,148 --> 00:35:39,508
with flows coming in.

542
00:35:40,588 --> 00:35:45,168
And the liquidity was there to hold it up.

543
00:35:46,208 --> 00:35:48,688
The question is, if the stuff starts liquidating,

544
00:35:48,788 --> 00:35:50,328
it's usually in the middle of the bear market

545
00:35:50,328 --> 00:35:52,668
when the market's really soft.

546
00:35:53,108 --> 00:35:55,888
And so that's going to have massive impact.

547
00:35:55,888 --> 00:35:59,128
I mean, that's why it's really important to measure the liquidity.

548
00:35:59,128 --> 00:36:01,908
Like in the bull market, you're sort of wheat, right?

549
00:36:01,908 --> 00:36:02,908
You're great.

550
00:36:02,908 --> 00:36:04,408
Like it's all coming in.

551
00:36:04,408 --> 00:36:06,208
Beer market's actually leaving.

552
00:36:06,208 --> 00:36:18,095
And then you dumping like 100 coins That pretty damaging to the market on price So are you quite skeptical about the treasury companies And do you think they will be the reason for the next bear market

553
00:36:18,536 --> 00:36:19,856
I think they'll accentuate it.

554
00:36:21,316 --> 00:36:27,736
I really like them because they provide relatively cheap funding for shorting on equity markets.

555
00:36:27,736 --> 00:36:35,356
Because if you're on MNAV of, say, five and you short that, well, MNAV is going to compress to one or below.

556
00:36:35,356 --> 00:36:38,575
So you get a 5x leverage without needing to pay for it.

557
00:36:39,896 --> 00:36:41,635
I mean, I say that a bit tongue in cheek.

558
00:36:42,335 --> 00:36:44,175
Most people don't like the bear market.

559
00:36:44,736 --> 00:36:46,996
I think that that'll add to it.

560
00:36:47,155 --> 00:36:50,896
But I think that most Bitcoiners think that this infrastructure

561
00:36:50,896 --> 00:36:55,936
and development of the market and the way in which the capital is coming in,

562
00:36:56,356 --> 00:36:58,696
we're not going to have these 80% drawdowns.

563
00:36:58,696 --> 00:37:06,696
I think also we need to look at where Bitcoin is now a $2 trillion asset.

564
00:37:07,416 --> 00:37:13,696
It's the newest global macro asset that's trading at scale to hit the world in 150 years.

565
00:37:13,976 --> 00:37:15,316
It's a global macro asset.

566
00:37:15,776 --> 00:37:17,796
It's not a separate thing on its own.

567
00:37:18,496 --> 00:37:21,796
And the global liquidity needs to be accounted for.

568
00:37:22,696 --> 00:37:27,575
And everyone's bullish because global liquidity, by the way, means money printing.

569
00:37:28,696 --> 00:37:31,075
Everyone's bullish because people are money printing.

570
00:37:32,075 --> 00:37:35,716
But we've never really seen a business cycle downturn.

571
00:37:36,556 --> 00:37:40,276
We have liquidity cycles, which every four years generally,

572
00:37:40,476 --> 00:37:42,976
that seems to be the cycle that nation states print at.

573
00:37:43,476 --> 00:37:47,536
But we have business cycle downturns every maybe decade or so.

574
00:37:48,335 --> 00:37:52,595
And we kind of had one in COVID, but it was a flash in the pan

575
00:37:52,595 --> 00:37:55,416
and there was so much injection of liquidity and it came in early.

576
00:37:55,416 --> 00:37:59,476
the last one before that was

577
00:37:59,476 --> 00:38:01,135
the world financial crisis

578
00:38:01,135 --> 00:38:03,635
which is what was etched

579
00:38:03,635 --> 00:38:05,175
into the genesis block really

580
00:38:05,175 --> 00:38:07,575
so Bitcoin's never experienced

581
00:38:07,575 --> 00:38:09,416
a business cycle

582
00:38:09,416 --> 00:38:11,496
downturn in a time when

583
00:38:11,496 --> 00:38:13,496
the US Fed is

584
00:38:13,496 --> 00:38:15,736
a holdout on injecting

585
00:38:15,736 --> 00:38:17,696
liquidity and so it's going to

586
00:38:17,696 --> 00:38:19,496
come in late so

587
00:38:19,496 --> 00:38:21,655
we don't know. Do you think

588
00:38:21,655 --> 00:38:23,016
that we're close to that

589
00:38:23,016 --> 00:38:25,456
to a business downturn?

590
00:38:25,736 --> 00:38:28,115
I would say pretty high confidence

591
00:38:28,115 --> 00:38:29,635
that that's going to happen by 26.

592
00:38:30,256 --> 00:38:32,155
Are we not already in one in a sense

593
00:38:32,155 --> 00:38:34,135
in that like of the S&P 500,

594
00:38:34,356 --> 00:38:36,536
really only the top seven companies actually matter?

595
00:38:41,796 --> 00:38:44,216
I've heard people say this is like an everything bubble.

596
00:38:45,595 --> 00:38:48,056
I'm not an expert in equities.

597
00:38:48,896 --> 00:38:50,135
I track liquidity.

598
00:38:50,135 --> 00:38:53,396
I think that

599
00:38:53,396 --> 00:38:56,216
I think the leading signs for a recession

600
00:38:56,216 --> 00:38:58,756
have already hit

601
00:38:58,756 --> 00:39:02,196
and a lot of this work is with SwissBlock

602
00:39:02,196 --> 00:39:03,716
which I work with today

603
00:39:03,716 --> 00:39:07,115
they're the kind of the OG secret trading firm

604
00:39:07,115 --> 00:39:08,815
behind Glassnode

605
00:39:08,815 --> 00:39:10,615
and Glassnode was actually spun out

606
00:39:10,615 --> 00:39:12,056
for the world to use

607
00:39:12,056 --> 00:39:14,675
even though they were using those

608
00:39:14,675 --> 00:39:17,635
the early work in that data

609
00:39:17,635 --> 00:39:19,256
in 2015, 2016

610
00:39:19,256 --> 00:39:23,835
so they're a global macro firm now

611
00:39:23,835 --> 00:39:28,016
and some people might know Henry Zeeberg

612
00:39:28,016 --> 00:39:30,736
who is the economist inside there

613
00:39:30,736 --> 00:39:33,135
and so he's tracking all the macro signals

614
00:39:33,135 --> 00:39:38,256
and in his words the economy's hit the Titanic

615
00:39:38,256 --> 00:39:39,296
hasn't sunk yet

616
00:39:39,296 --> 00:39:47,556
there's more leading indicators you could say

617
00:39:47,556 --> 00:39:51,276
than that one, the one that we've hit the Titanic,

618
00:39:51,576 --> 00:39:52,615
that's already fired.

619
00:39:52,815 --> 00:39:53,776
There's no going back.

620
00:39:54,155 --> 00:39:55,876
There will be a business cycle downturn.

621
00:39:58,655 --> 00:40:00,276
But we're not there yet.

622
00:40:00,335 --> 00:40:00,936
It's not sinking.

623
00:40:01,536 --> 00:40:03,256
And that's the best part of the bull market.

624
00:40:03,516 --> 00:40:06,556
Everything goes apeshit crazy and we'll have a blow off top.

625
00:40:06,956 --> 00:40:09,276
And we're expecting that in Bitcoin too.

626
00:40:09,835 --> 00:40:13,076
Everyone's expecting that because we're not there yet.

627
00:40:13,756 --> 00:40:14,996
But it will be coming.

628
00:40:14,996 --> 00:40:21,315
And even the four-year cycle guys will say it's coming in 26 because of standard four-year liquidity flows.

629
00:40:23,115 --> 00:40:27,595
Superimpose on top of that a business cycle downturn, which Bitcoin's never experienced.

630
00:40:27,716 --> 00:40:28,996
Then we've got to see what happens.

631
00:40:29,615 --> 00:40:33,956
So do you know what he's looking at that is the leading indicator for recession?

632
00:40:34,056 --> 00:40:39,496
Because in 2008, obviously, the housing bubble was the thing that killed the market.

633
00:40:39,835 --> 00:40:42,296
Does he know what he's looking for in 2026?

634
00:40:42,296 --> 00:40:48,675
Yeah, they're based on economic data.

635
00:40:48,675 --> 00:40:50,675
I think housing is in there.

636
00:40:50,675 --> 00:40:54,956
It's global economy type stuff.

637
00:40:54,956 --> 00:40:57,796
Like you best talk to him.

638
00:40:57,796 --> 00:41:03,376
But yeah, it's more, we can get him on.

639
00:41:03,376 --> 00:41:07,296
He's pretty knowledgeable about it and he's done some exceptional calls.

640
00:41:07,296 --> 00:41:11,776
Yeah, like in the zoomed out picture, they're exceptional.

641
00:41:11,976 --> 00:41:15,696
When everyone is bearish, he says, now it's going,

642
00:41:16,396 --> 00:41:19,936
he said the S&P is going to recover back to here and go way higher.

643
00:41:20,576 --> 00:41:23,675
And it's so far played out when everyone was saying, no,

644
00:41:24,115 --> 00:41:25,536
this economy is broken.

645
00:41:26,835 --> 00:41:33,115
So, yeah, there's this set up, right?

646
00:41:33,115 --> 00:41:35,576
Liquidity cycle coming back down.

647
00:41:35,576 --> 00:41:38,496
business cycle downturn

648
00:41:38,496 --> 00:41:40,976
we've got our treasury companies on top

649
00:41:40,976 --> 00:41:43,376
that are exhibiting high MNAVs

650
00:41:43,376 --> 00:41:44,756
so if you're holding those equities

651
00:41:44,756 --> 00:41:46,976
you're going to have that compression

652
00:41:46,976 --> 00:41:49,716
and then we have the potential

653
00:41:49,716 --> 00:41:51,576
for these Bitcoin treasury companies

654
00:41:51,576 --> 00:41:54,115
the weakest ones to be liquidated

655
00:41:54,115 --> 00:41:55,296
if they're overextended

656
00:41:55,296 --> 00:41:58,736
because these guys are doing

657
00:41:58,736 --> 00:42:02,756
you know like four year bonds

658
00:42:02,756 --> 00:42:03,796
convertible bonds

659
00:42:03,796 --> 00:42:05,396
or some of them not at all

660
00:42:05,396 --> 00:42:13,996
meta planet, it's like real time really. So yeah, so you need to look at the details of

661
00:42:13,996 --> 00:42:16,396
the structuring, but I think some of it will be liquidated.

662
00:42:16,796 --> 00:42:21,216
So the interesting thing there is that it feels like on one hand, you're saying the

663
00:42:21,216 --> 00:42:25,615
structure of the Bitcoin market's changed. Like maybe like people talk about super cycle or

664
00:42:25,615 --> 00:42:29,856
elongated cycle, whatever that is, but the structure has changed and maybe that's just

665
00:42:29,856 --> 00:42:34,696
reduced downside and upside volatility. But then you're also saying potentially we'll have like a

666
00:42:34,696 --> 00:42:40,016
2026 blow off top. What do you see Bitcoin doing in the next, say, 12 months?

667
00:42:40,396 --> 00:42:46,716
Yeah, so I'm saying it's like a superposition of all these impacts, right? And I think

668
00:42:46,716 --> 00:42:54,736
structurally, Bitcoin's solid, whereas in the past, we had these big downswings. The attribution

669
00:42:54,736 --> 00:43:03,496
to a more robust market, let's say, is there's that.

670
00:43:03,496 --> 00:43:06,736
And then we've got your standard liquidity downturn,

671
00:43:07,056 --> 00:43:09,476
but then we've got a business cycle downturn on top.

672
00:43:09,655 --> 00:43:12,476
And some of that all, maybe some people say,

673
00:43:12,655 --> 00:43:14,376
oh, we only get a 50% bear market.

674
00:43:14,655 --> 00:43:17,476
Yeah, sure, if that was every other normal cycle

675
00:43:17,476 --> 00:43:19,835
that Bitcoin's existed in the 16 years,

676
00:43:20,396 --> 00:43:23,655
but we don't know this thing called a business cycle downturn

677
00:43:23,655 --> 00:43:25,936
and its impact on Bitcoin.

678
00:43:26,216 --> 00:43:28,135
And Bitcoin happens to be the most sensitive

679
00:43:28,135 --> 00:43:31,876
of all the global macro assets to liquidity changes.

680
00:43:32,815 --> 00:43:36,396
And so if we've got that,

681
00:43:36,576 --> 00:43:38,036
then we don't know how that,

682
00:43:38,416 --> 00:43:41,476
you know, add more drawdown to the 50% you think,

683
00:43:42,396 --> 00:43:43,856
whatever number you come to.

684
00:43:44,615 --> 00:43:46,456
So that's how I'd approach it.

685
00:43:46,876 --> 00:43:49,036
And when you're looking at kind of Bitcoin price,

686
00:43:49,135 --> 00:43:51,276
how high do you think it can go before this drawdown?

687
00:43:52,016 --> 00:43:53,615
It depends how long we've got to run.

688
00:43:53,655 --> 00:44:00,376
you know um if it's soon like if it's fourth quarter of this year um and if it's early first

689
00:44:00,376 --> 00:44:09,296
quarter then 140 to 160 if it goes into 2026 then um you know it could go way higher um

690
00:44:09,296 --> 00:44:14,476
so one thing i've been thinking which may be too simplistic is like if you look at the incentives

691
00:44:14,476 --> 00:44:19,996
of someone like trump who's got the midterms i think october next year or like uh third quarter

692
00:44:19,996 --> 00:44:25,896
next year. He's going to want to run the economy really hot going into that. So I assume he's

693
00:44:25,896 --> 00:44:30,216
going to pull out all the stops to make sure markets are flying. And so in my head, I've

694
00:44:30,216 --> 00:44:37,335
kind of had late 26 is the top of this cycle. Right. Yeah. You can see this already is that

695
00:44:37,335 --> 00:44:44,615
Trump wants lower interest rates, but Powell's like, nope, nope, nope. And the thing is,

696
00:44:44,615 --> 00:44:48,496
never mind how much power Trump has,

697
00:44:48,615 --> 00:44:51,835
he doesn't have the power to influence Fed policy.

698
00:44:52,976 --> 00:44:54,216
For that to happen,

699
00:44:54,576 --> 00:44:57,675
the Republicans would have needed to be in power

700
00:44:57,675 --> 00:45:00,936
for 12 years and outvoted the Democrats

701
00:45:00,936 --> 00:45:05,175
on who gets to be on the Fed board

702
00:45:05,175 --> 00:45:09,256
and have that qualified by Congress.

703
00:45:09,556 --> 00:45:13,436
So it's a pretty full-on thing to get full power of the Fed.

704
00:45:13,436 --> 00:45:15,596
and it's designed that way.

705
00:45:15,596 --> 00:45:19,536
So he could try talking it up,

706
00:45:19,795 --> 00:45:23,276
but unless the Fed actually changes rates,

707
00:45:24,016 --> 00:45:27,496
and in our opinion, it's too slow anyway.

708
00:45:28,036 --> 00:45:29,155
It's probably too late.

709
00:45:30,196 --> 00:45:33,356
The liquidity injection should have happened a long time ago

710
00:45:33,356 --> 00:45:34,756
and it's late.

711
00:45:35,016 --> 00:45:37,216
And the rest of the world is injecting liquidity, not the Fed.

712
00:45:37,856 --> 00:45:40,016
So we'll see.

713
00:45:40,315 --> 00:45:43,315
So other central banks around the world are printing money right now?

714
00:45:43,315 --> 00:45:47,236
Yeah, yeah, global liquidity is going up, but it's not coming from the US as such.

715
00:45:47,516 --> 00:45:50,516
So do you think Powell's been wrong on this call to not lower rates?

716
00:45:50,896 --> 00:45:51,896
Yeah, we think so.

717
00:45:52,216 --> 00:45:53,056
We think so.

718
00:45:54,315 --> 00:46:01,776
Henrik's very outspoken, saying this is a really bad setup right now that he should be printing.

719
00:46:02,036 --> 00:46:03,196
And we don't know why he's not.

720
00:46:03,976 --> 00:46:05,036
Inflation's not so high.

721
00:46:05,736 --> 00:46:06,556
Yeah, inflation's not.

722
00:46:06,615 --> 00:46:09,076
But we know that money printing does lead to inflation.

723
00:46:09,536 --> 00:46:12,795
And obviously, Powell knows that better than anyone because he's been at the helm while that happened.

724
00:46:12,795 --> 00:46:16,356
Why do you think he should be printing money?

725
00:46:16,356 --> 00:46:19,675
Because it's great for us as like asset holders, but is it good for the population?

726
00:46:19,675 --> 00:46:27,036
Oh, well, obviously printing money is bad, right?

727
00:46:27,036 --> 00:46:32,896
Like, I mean, on fundamental level, printing money is really bad.

728
00:46:32,896 --> 00:46:37,736
We know that as Bitcoiners, but in terms of an economy and how far it's going to wreck

729
00:46:37,736 --> 00:46:39,496
people in the short term.

730
00:46:42,416 --> 00:46:49,696
Right now, like the role here, you know, with the changing of the interest rates is really

731
00:46:49,696 --> 00:46:52,456
to buffer these really harsh drawdowns.

732
00:46:52,456 --> 00:46:58,096
That's the whole point of a central bank is to try and take the pain out of the market.

733
00:46:59,536 --> 00:47:06,155
And that's probably not the best move for the role of the Fed.

734
00:47:06,155 --> 00:47:12,295
We can debate whether or not the Fed should be able to dictate this.

735
00:47:12,295 --> 00:47:15,795
Obviously, as a Bitcoin, I don't think this is a good setup.

736
00:47:15,795 --> 00:47:16,795
Yeah.

737
00:47:16,795 --> 00:47:17,795
But yeah.

738
00:47:17,795 --> 00:47:20,795
So looking out, you're quite bearish.

739
00:47:20,795 --> 00:47:23,795
I'm bullish over the next few months.

740
00:47:23,795 --> 00:47:24,795
Yeah.

741
00:47:24,795 --> 00:47:25,795
I'm bullish.

742
00:47:25,795 --> 00:47:26,795
Short-term bullish, long-term bearish.

743
00:47:26,795 --> 00:47:27,795
I'm bullish.

744
00:47:27,795 --> 00:47:32,016
The audience shouldn't do what I do.

745
00:47:32,016 --> 00:47:34,436
I participate in the markets.

746
00:47:34,436 --> 00:47:37,576
So if it's bearish, I'd love to have a really bearish market.

747
00:47:37,696 --> 00:47:40,135
And if it's bullish, I'd love to have a really bullish market.

748
00:47:42,036 --> 00:47:45,135
Because I don't huddle that much, right?

749
00:47:45,356 --> 00:47:50,436
The thing is, I've been in these markets for well over 10 years now.

750
00:47:50,436 --> 00:47:56,876
And I think the number came out from Arthur Hayes on BitMEX.

751
00:47:56,956 --> 00:47:59,815
Only 1% of traders actually make any money on that exchange.

752
00:48:00,716 --> 00:48:02,675
And those are your odds.

753
00:48:02,675 --> 00:48:20,675
And so even if like for myself, I have some amount of capability where the market is at and where it might likely be to go, that didn't make me profitable until I figured out how to manage risk.

754
00:48:20,835 --> 00:48:22,615
These are so many things you have to learn.

755
00:48:22,856 --> 00:48:24,776
And so that's why we huddle.

756
00:48:24,776 --> 00:48:54,096
Right. But yeah, for myself, I'm bullish right now and I'm expecting to be bearish by next year, if not sooner. But I have no crystal ball off the top. The thing about these markets is the bottoms are very, very stable because that's when liquidity comes in. At the top, liquidity dries up. And when liquidity dries up, the tops become quite unstable. You'll see the volatility.

757
00:48:54,096 --> 00:48:57,236
and it's whipsawing around and it's highly emotional,

758
00:48:57,716 --> 00:48:58,716
that's very hard to predict.

759
00:49:00,115 --> 00:49:04,155
So it's good to be bearish late

760
00:49:04,155 --> 00:49:05,815
until it's really riding on the wall.

761
00:49:07,315 --> 00:49:12,115
So I don't know, everyone likes to pick a top price

762
00:49:12,115 --> 00:49:15,196
and it's almost impossible.

763
00:49:16,576 --> 00:49:18,615
If you get it right, you're lucky.

764
00:49:18,615 --> 00:49:20,795
and

765
00:49:20,795 --> 00:49:22,536
you know even like

766
00:49:22,536 --> 00:49:23,916
Peter Swift has it

767
00:49:23,916 --> 00:49:26,815
like is it Philip Swift

768
00:49:26,815 --> 00:49:28,256
there's

769
00:49:28,256 --> 00:49:30,916
the cycle

770
00:49:30,916 --> 00:49:32,476
top you know and it's a

771
00:49:32,476 --> 00:49:34,916
crossover of two magic moving averages

772
00:49:34,916 --> 00:49:36,876
and it uses Fibonacci numbers

773
00:49:36,876 --> 00:49:38,655
and that's called every top

774
00:49:38,655 --> 00:49:40,835
in the past even that it doesn't call a

775
00:49:40,835 --> 00:49:42,856
price it's like a

776
00:49:42,856 --> 00:49:43,655
timing signature

777
00:49:43,655 --> 00:49:46,815
so it's yeah

778
00:49:46,815 --> 00:49:53,216
top to heart if you want a number to go by and no one should be trading to a measuring number.

779
00:49:53,776 --> 00:49:58,896
So if you don't really hold Bitcoin, I know you've been trading for 10 plus years or whatever.

780
00:49:59,936 --> 00:50:02,496
Have you outperformed if you'd have just bought and held Bitcoin?

781
00:50:03,536 --> 00:50:09,776
I've outperformed, yeah. But when you say I don't hold, I'm always going to come. I don't hold for

782
00:50:09,776 --> 00:50:15,295
a year when it's in a bear market, usually a year, six months to a year. But I'm always coming back.

783
00:50:15,295 --> 00:50:16,295
I see.

784
00:50:16,295 --> 00:50:17,295
Right?

785
00:50:17,295 --> 00:50:20,056
Like I call myself a Bitcoiner because I'm a maxi.

786
00:50:20,056 --> 00:50:24,016
I think this is the biggest change in the world and it's going to take over and I'm

787
00:50:24,016 --> 00:50:26,936
going to be pissed off if I'm going to have less Bitcoins each year.

788
00:50:26,936 --> 00:50:27,936
Yeah.

789
00:50:27,936 --> 00:50:28,936
All right.

790
00:50:28,936 --> 00:50:31,795
And the biggest opportunity for me to get more Bitcoins is the bear market.

791
00:50:31,795 --> 00:50:35,416
Sit there in cash and do nothing.

792
00:50:35,416 --> 00:50:39,056
And so you might be in a long bear market then coming up.

793
00:50:39,056 --> 00:50:40,056
Yeah, it might be.

794
00:50:40,056 --> 00:50:42,536
It might be 12, 16, 18 months.

795
00:50:42,536 --> 00:50:46,576
Is there anything that either the Fed or just central banks around the world can do to stop

796
00:50:46,576 --> 00:50:49,076
this happening?

797
00:50:49,076 --> 00:50:50,076
Or is it too late?

798
00:50:50,076 --> 00:50:53,996
Well, Henrik would probably think it's too late.

799
00:50:53,996 --> 00:50:56,295
It's his wheelhouse.

800
00:50:56,295 --> 00:50:57,295
I think it's too late.

801
00:50:57,295 --> 00:51:01,976
Yeah, I'd say from data he showed me, I'm pretty convinced of his thesis.

802
00:51:01,976 --> 00:51:02,976
Yeah.

803
00:51:02,976 --> 00:51:06,356
So without them injecting crazy liquidity right now, which it doesn't seem like they're

804
00:51:06,356 --> 00:51:08,536
going to do, maybe this thing's already gone.

805
00:51:08,536 --> 00:51:13,416
Yeah, well, the indicator shows that it's too late.

806
00:51:13,776 --> 00:51:15,896
The economy is, and it's natural, right?

807
00:51:15,916 --> 00:51:19,256
Every 10 years, you do get a business downturn and it is fired.

808
00:51:19,675 --> 00:51:21,476
The question is how deep will it go?

809
00:51:21,936 --> 00:51:23,756
And you can do something about that.

810
00:51:23,856 --> 00:51:29,295
And if the Fed does their job by lowering rates to soften this ahead of time,

811
00:51:29,856 --> 00:51:31,476
then it'll be okay.

812
00:51:31,815 --> 00:51:36,295
Like COVID, they did that, but they did it too much, right?

813
00:51:36,295 --> 00:51:41,276
They printed too much money and now we've had to.

814
00:51:41,276 --> 00:51:44,776
But presumably if this market does start rolling over, they will step in and inject liquidity

815
00:51:44,776 --> 00:51:46,776
at that point.

816
00:51:46,776 --> 00:51:49,916
But you think that just takes time to get into the market and it means you have a 12-month

817
00:51:49,916 --> 00:51:50,916
bear market or whatever it is.

818
00:51:50,916 --> 00:51:51,916
Yeah.

819
00:51:51,916 --> 00:51:54,016
If it's late, I mean, it's a supertanker.

820
00:51:54,016 --> 00:51:56,756
It's going to turn around real slightly.

821
00:51:56,756 --> 00:51:57,756
Yeah.

822
00:51:57,756 --> 00:52:03,956
And people, myself included, think of Bitcoin as kind of a risk off asset as well as a risk

823
00:52:03,956 --> 00:52:04,956
on asset.

824
00:52:04,956 --> 00:52:09,036
a risk on asset. But to me, this is like long term savings that is almost like risk off.

825
00:52:09,835 --> 00:52:13,276
Do you think the market will see it that way and Bitcoin might actually perform well in that kind

826
00:52:13,276 --> 00:52:18,556
of macro bear market? Not in the short term. I called it the world's first

827
00:52:20,956 --> 00:52:28,795
risk on safe haven. It'll run just as well as a tech stock, but it's a safe haven asset.

828
00:52:28,795 --> 00:52:29,795
Yeah.

829
00:52:29,795 --> 00:52:35,036
But you'll see even gold crash, you know, world financial crisis, gold crash.

830
00:52:35,036 --> 00:52:37,615
Everyone sells everything to get to cash.

831
00:52:37,615 --> 00:52:39,076
How long did it crash for in 2008?

832
00:52:39,076 --> 00:52:40,076
I don't know.

833
00:52:40,076 --> 00:52:41,076
I can't remember.

834
00:52:41,076 --> 00:52:43,436
Was it a month, two months?

835
00:52:43,436 --> 00:52:45,036
So it recovered before everything else?

836
00:52:45,036 --> 00:52:46,036
Yeah.

837
00:52:46,036 --> 00:52:49,376
It recovered and went on for a three year bull run, I think three or four year bull run

838
00:52:49,376 --> 00:52:50,376
to 2012, right?

839
00:52:50,376 --> 00:52:51,376
Four years.

840
00:52:51,376 --> 00:52:52,376
Yeah.

841
00:52:52,376 --> 00:52:58,295
So, yeah, because the confidence was knocked in the banking system.

842
00:52:58,295 --> 00:53:00,056
And right now we're seeing gold run, right?

843
00:53:00,056 --> 00:53:04,536
And the confidence is being, I think, shaken in the US dollar.

844
00:53:04,536 --> 00:53:05,536
Definitely.

845
00:53:05,536 --> 00:53:11,076
And so, yeah, and this, Bitcoin's still quite new.

846
00:53:11,076 --> 00:53:16,056
It's not trusted by people who hold the 900 trillion.

847
00:53:16,056 --> 00:53:20,956
They need to see that play out in decades.

848
00:53:20,956 --> 00:53:23,295
I think it'll be great, right?

849
00:53:23,295 --> 00:53:29,376
If you look at it in sheer performance against gold, it just tears it apart.

850
00:53:29,376 --> 00:53:35,295
If you look at fundamentally what it is, gold's had its time.

851
00:53:35,295 --> 00:53:38,376
We've had 6,000 years of gold, gold and silver.

852
00:53:38,376 --> 00:53:40,616
There's a reason for it.

853
00:53:40,616 --> 00:53:41,616
Gold was our money.

854
00:53:41,616 --> 00:53:43,335
It was our de facto money.

855
00:53:43,335 --> 00:53:44,335
And what is money?

856
00:53:44,335 --> 00:53:46,175
Money is a ledger.

857
00:53:46,175 --> 00:53:49,295
People think money was this thing to assist barter, but it was a ledger.

858
00:53:49,295 --> 00:53:50,295
It was always a ledger.

859
00:53:50,295 --> 00:53:53,275
It was, I do you a favor, you do me a favor.

860
00:53:53,396 --> 00:53:54,856
It's social debt and it got formalized.

861
00:53:54,916 --> 00:53:56,596
It's the latest research on money.

862
00:53:57,356 --> 00:54:01,036
This whole idea that we used gold to assist barter

863
00:54:01,036 --> 00:54:03,716
is this philosophical thing not backed by evidence.

864
00:54:04,216 --> 00:54:08,815
So you've got this 6,000-year-old use of gold being the fair ledger.

865
00:54:09,295 --> 00:54:11,635
That meant the accountant couldn't diddle the books

866
00:54:11,635 --> 00:54:12,996
and give more money to himself.

867
00:54:13,556 --> 00:54:27,483
So if you at this situation they will have 6 years of gold being the de facto fear ledger And now we got we moving to the space age digital age space age and you got rockets

868
00:54:28,363 --> 00:54:34,763
every other day launching and the price per launch is dropping off a cliff and robotic technology is

869
00:54:34,763 --> 00:54:38,783
going through experiential claims.

870
00:54:39,463 --> 00:54:42,863
I think it's around 2040-ish

871
00:54:42,863 --> 00:54:45,383
that we will be able to start to showcase

872
00:54:45,383 --> 00:54:47,243
mining of asteroids.

873
00:54:48,443 --> 00:54:50,883
And they found an asteroid that was something

874
00:54:50,883 --> 00:54:54,363
like a thousand times world GDP with a gold on it.

875
00:54:55,023 --> 00:54:57,643
And so if you think you're going to secure a ledger

876
00:54:57,643 --> 00:54:59,723
with atoms, you're going to be mistaken

877
00:54:59,723 --> 00:55:01,363
because there's a lot of atoms around.

878
00:55:01,763 --> 00:55:04,003
There's no meteorites with Bitcoin on them.

879
00:55:04,083 --> 00:55:04,603
That's right.

880
00:55:04,763 --> 00:55:07,883
Right. And so Bitcoin's secured by energy.

881
00:55:08,763 --> 00:55:13,563
Right. And so if you, you know, for the scientists in the room,

882
00:55:13,563 --> 00:55:16,683
they know this because it's called the Kardashev scale.

883
00:55:16,683 --> 00:55:19,403
That's how you measure a technology of a civilization.

884
00:55:20,603 --> 00:55:25,323
And you see this in world GDP as we GDP goes up, energy use goes up

885
00:55:25,323 --> 00:55:31,323
because fundamentally the economy eats energy and raw material to spit out goods and services.

886
00:55:31,323 --> 00:55:35,963
and they get more and more sophisticated and we know that the latest stuff, AI, just eats this

887
00:55:35,963 --> 00:55:42,443
energy. So energy is always going to be scarce relative to demand. So you have to secure it with

888
00:55:42,443 --> 00:55:49,403
that. And we know that works a thousand years into the future. And so we're at this precipice

889
00:55:49,403 --> 00:55:56,283
where money is going to be redefined by going from gold to energy secured ledger. Gold was an

890
00:55:56,283 --> 00:55:57,903
the Atoms secured ledger.

891
00:55:58,103 --> 00:56:01,923
And right now we have this thing called a social consensus ledger.

892
00:56:02,423 --> 00:56:05,903
It's a paperization of a liquidity crisis.

893
00:56:06,263 --> 00:56:08,983
It's a very, very recent thing since 1971.

894
00:56:09,303 --> 00:56:10,823
It doesn't go back 6,000 years.

895
00:56:10,983 --> 00:56:13,523
It's not going to go forward in the next few thousand years either.

896
00:56:14,223 --> 00:56:16,003
And that'll collapse soon.

897
00:56:16,603 --> 00:56:21,163
And the social consensus is, trust me, bro, I'm good for it by the Fed.

898
00:56:22,683 --> 00:56:24,923
That's how we manage our ledger right now.

899
00:56:24,923 --> 00:56:51,803
But it's always been a ledger. It's going from atoms currently. It's the social consensus, trust me, bro. And it's going to go to energy. And that's what Bitcoin is. And that's what we're buying. We're buying money for the next thousands of years. And that money's got to expand from one to two trillion, two trillion today, to whatever money needs to get to. And that'll be usually equivalent of world GDP. World GDP is, I think, 110 trillion.

900
00:56:51,803 --> 00:56:57,343
so if world GDP turns to 500 trillion it needs to get to 500 trillion.

901
00:56:58,203 --> 00:57:01,943
So when you go through that kind of history of money you have 6,000 years of gold this sort of

902
00:57:01,943 --> 00:57:07,203
fiat blip that we live in now how do you see us transitioning from that fiat era into Bitcoin? Do

903
00:57:07,203 --> 00:57:11,383
you think there'll be a period where fiat is backed by Bitcoin before full sort of hyper

904
00:57:11,383 --> 00:57:17,603
Bitcoinization or how do you see that playing out? Yeah it's really hard to say it's really hard to

905
00:57:17,603 --> 00:57:20,583
So we don't need backing with Bitcoin.

906
00:57:20,863 --> 00:57:21,743
I can say that.

907
00:57:22,443 --> 00:57:28,203
The reason we needed paper notes to trade around gold

908
00:57:28,203 --> 00:57:29,583
is because it wasn't portable.

909
00:57:29,863 --> 00:57:31,783
You couldn't ship it around at the speed of light.

910
00:57:32,023 --> 00:57:33,083
We can do that with Bitcoin.

911
00:57:33,843 --> 00:57:38,383
So fundamentally, we can be using Bitcoin as the money.

912
00:57:39,023 --> 00:57:40,843
People think it's volatile, but it's not volatile

913
00:57:40,843 --> 00:57:42,103
when you're paying for it in Bitcoin.

914
00:57:42,283 --> 00:57:43,923
That becomes the unit of account.

915
00:57:44,743 --> 00:57:46,843
Given enough time, we're not there yet.

916
00:57:46,843 --> 00:57:48,583
we're still in the store of value phase.

917
00:57:50,343 --> 00:57:53,703
Probably will be for another 10 years at least.

918
00:57:55,123 --> 00:57:58,043
Maybe it will take another generation.

919
00:57:59,143 --> 00:58:02,283
But hey, we're talking about 10,000 years of money here.

920
00:58:02,683 --> 00:58:04,283
So 25 years.

921
00:58:04,563 --> 00:58:05,343
Yeah, it's okay.

922
00:58:05,343 --> 00:58:09,463
But we're lucky because we're at the forefront

923
00:58:09,463 --> 00:58:11,023
of this effect happening.

924
00:58:11,883 --> 00:58:14,663
And the guys that came in in 2011, 2012,

925
00:58:14,663 --> 00:58:19,783
you know, they got to buy the stuff when the market cap was, you know, in the millions

926
00:58:19,783 --> 00:58:22,863
instead of the trillions.

927
00:58:22,863 --> 00:58:28,703
So yeah, the Bitcoin's price is going to inflate, the market cap is going to inflate because

928
00:58:28,703 --> 00:58:29,703
it's being adopted.

929
00:58:29,703 --> 00:58:36,583
It's being adopted by corporate treasuries, adopted by nation states now.

930
00:58:36,583 --> 00:58:42,223
So I'm no doubt on the long run of this and I don't have any fears over quantum computers

931
00:58:42,223 --> 00:58:44,863
or that this technology will break

932
00:58:44,863 --> 00:58:47,063
because everything that can break can be fixed.

933
00:58:47,343 --> 00:58:47,483
Yeah.

934
00:58:48,243 --> 00:58:50,303
See, I can totally see,

935
00:58:50,723 --> 00:58:51,903
give it long enough time period,

936
00:58:51,983 --> 00:58:52,623
10 years or whatever,

937
00:58:52,723 --> 00:58:53,763
quantum being a threat,

938
00:58:53,963 --> 00:58:56,083
but we will just change things.

939
00:58:56,763 --> 00:58:57,963
There's already people doing work

940
00:58:57,963 --> 00:58:58,763
on the address signatures.

941
00:58:59,183 --> 00:59:01,723
I don't see that being a big existential threat

942
00:59:01,723 --> 00:59:02,483
for Bitcoin at all.

943
00:59:03,203 --> 00:59:05,583
When you look at the maturation of the market,

944
00:59:05,783 --> 00:59:07,543
we've started this conversation being like

945
00:59:07,543 --> 00:59:08,783
the Bitcoin market is maturing,

946
00:59:09,003 --> 00:59:09,843
but then at the same time,

947
00:59:09,883 --> 00:59:11,923
you're saying we're in the incredibly,

948
00:59:11,923 --> 00:59:13,163
incredibly early days.

949
00:59:13,663 --> 00:59:16,483
Like what does this market look like in 10 years time?

950
00:59:18,203 --> 00:59:23,063
I think it would look much more like how maybe gold is perceived, but with all the bells

951
00:59:23,063 --> 00:59:27,403
and whistles of a digital commodity that moves at the speed of light.

952
00:59:27,723 --> 00:59:29,503
That's the bit that's hard to predict, right?

953
00:59:29,543 --> 00:59:30,663
Because we've not had that before.

954
00:59:31,203 --> 00:59:33,383
But in 10 years time, it'll be accepted like gold.

955
00:59:33,503 --> 00:59:36,263
It's probably market cap will have exceeded or matched gold.

956
00:59:36,663 --> 00:59:38,503
It'll be taken seriously by everyone.

957
00:59:38,703 --> 00:59:40,283
It'll be the size of the US dollar.

958
00:59:40,283 --> 00:59:43,443
I think because gold is the size of the US dollar

959
00:59:43,443 --> 00:59:45,243
in terms of M2 money supply

960
00:59:45,243 --> 00:59:47,543
so I think

961
00:59:47,543 --> 00:59:49,963
let's call it the trade

962
00:59:49,963 --> 00:59:51,163
fight acceptance will be there

963
00:59:51,163 --> 00:59:53,683
then the question is what does it look like

964
00:59:53,683 --> 00:59:55,303
when Bitcoin becomes

965
00:59:55,303 --> 00:59:57,743
it does its thing because it's a beast

966
00:59:57,743 --> 00:59:59,683
it's a digital asset that

967
00:59:59,683 --> 01:00:01,903
moves the speed of light and it's got layers on it

968
01:00:01,903 --> 01:00:02,943
layer 2, layer 3

969
01:00:02,943 --> 01:00:05,203
and they're not

970
01:00:05,203 --> 01:00:07,543
you know they're somewhat

971
01:00:07,543 --> 01:00:09,583
self-custodial as well and

972
01:00:09,583 --> 01:00:19,183
even faster. We've got AI. I've said the problem with real estate is there's less people. The

973
01:00:19,183 --> 01:00:24,623
population is going to peak and it's going to drop. Whereas the population of people that need Bitcoin

974
01:00:24,623 --> 01:00:30,063
is going to increase because AI agents will be using this. So there's all this future facing

975
01:00:30,063 --> 01:00:38,383
stuff that's almost impossible, I think, to figure out. We couldn't figure out the future we live in

976
01:00:38,383 --> 01:00:45,343
today back in when the internet first came about and i think yeah that it'll take it'll take some

977
01:00:45,343 --> 01:00:53,263
time maybe you call it um like you know i used to say it takes um a generation to figure out what the

978
01:00:53,263 --> 01:01:00,543
medium what the medium is for like when we did tv shows um the first ones with radio were pictures

979
01:01:00,543 --> 01:01:07,023
and it took another generation to invent the sitcom and maybe we'd start that clock in 10 years when

980
01:01:07,023 --> 01:01:08,163
and you have general acceptance.

981
01:01:08,843 --> 01:01:10,383
And then you wait another generation

982
01:01:10,383 --> 01:01:13,823
and see what the population does with what it really is.

983
01:01:14,403 --> 01:01:16,223
And we don't know what it really is.

984
01:01:16,623 --> 01:01:18,143
We think of it as digital gold,

985
01:01:18,223 --> 01:01:19,823
but I've just said it's not digital gold.

986
01:01:19,983 --> 01:01:22,163
It's a ledger secured by energy,

987
01:01:22,163 --> 01:01:23,983
which will work for the next thousand years.

988
01:01:24,703 --> 01:01:26,223
So what can this thing do?

989
01:01:26,403 --> 01:01:29,843
Well, we can start looking at it 10 years from now, maybe,

990
01:01:30,523 --> 01:01:31,623
and see what happens.

991
01:01:32,483 --> 01:01:33,303
I love it.

992
01:01:33,463 --> 01:01:33,663
Yeah.

993
01:01:33,863 --> 01:01:36,923
So you're at short-term bullish, intermediate-term,

994
01:01:37,023 --> 01:01:42,763
bearish and that long-term ultra bullish oh yeah long-term i'm maxi right i think it's going to eat

995
01:01:42,763 --> 01:01:48,743
up a big chunk of wealth assets for sure um i've actually done this thing where i've um actually

996
01:01:48,743 --> 01:01:56,003
not i'm not self-custody anymore is that because of personal like security risk yeah that that i

997
01:01:56,003 --> 01:02:01,283
think you'll see a lot more people that have been in the space a long time um and now and they'll

998
01:02:01,283 --> 01:02:04,263
we were just in institutional day here at

999
01:02:04,263 --> 01:02:05,963
Honey Badger Conference and

1000
01:02:05,963 --> 01:02:08,483
the banks are saying, oh the lollies whales

1001
01:02:08,483 --> 01:02:10,383
are coming in and they don't want to hold their coins anymore

1002
01:02:10,383 --> 01:02:12,083
because of the personal OPSEC

1003
01:02:12,083 --> 01:02:14,423
that does not apply to everyone else

1004
01:02:14,423 --> 01:02:16,523
everyone else should self custody

1005
01:02:16,523 --> 01:02:18,523
because we want the

1006
01:02:18,523 --> 01:02:20,703
custody to be decentralized, it's fundamental

1007
01:02:20,703 --> 01:02:22,643
but what I'm doing

1008
01:02:22,643 --> 01:02:24,543
is I'm selling a lot of this

1009
01:02:24,543 --> 01:02:26,263
liquidity to go back

1010
01:02:26,263 --> 01:02:27,623
into the ecosystem

1011
01:02:27,623 --> 01:02:30,523
the startup ecosystem, the picks

1012
01:02:30,523 --> 01:02:36,443
shovels, the things that will support Bitcoin's infrastructure moving forward so it can have this

1013
01:02:36,443 --> 01:02:45,003
future, it will have this future. I like to be part of it. Also, the work with SwissBlock now

1014
01:02:45,003 --> 01:02:53,323
is starting to ramp up. So as this whole institutional adoption is coming in, we think

1015
01:02:53,323 --> 01:02:57,643
that the Bloombergs of this world will come in as well and they'll want to come in and represent

1016
01:02:57,643 --> 01:03:00,903
the data from Bitcoin and represent that to TradFi.

1017
01:03:01,603 --> 01:03:06,243
And we think that it's, you know, we've been doing this for 10 years and we'd like to have

1018
01:03:06,243 --> 01:03:12,283
a shot at actually doing this very well native to the industry with the Bitcoin ethos.

1019
01:03:12,283 --> 01:03:16,583
So we've launched a whole bunch of institutional grade publications.

1020
01:03:17,223 --> 01:03:18,403
They predict price.

1021
01:03:18,563 --> 01:03:21,203
It's using 10 year old frameworks that have been very robust.

1022
01:03:22,583 --> 01:03:25,523
And I always spun up, you know, because my heart's with retail.

1023
01:03:25,523 --> 01:03:28,943
so I've done Bitcoin Vector Lite

1024
01:03:28,943 --> 01:03:31,863
the institutional product is Bitcoin Vector

1025
01:03:31,863 --> 01:03:34,543
the Lite version is for retail to assist stacking assets

1026
01:03:34,543 --> 01:03:37,423
and just giving a read on the market

1027
01:03:37,423 --> 01:03:39,683
so you don't freak out when the market's pulling back

1028
01:03:39,683 --> 01:03:41,803
you know okay it's cool it's doing its thing

1029
01:03:41,803 --> 01:03:45,383
and that was expected and these are good prices to buy at

1030
01:03:45,383 --> 01:03:48,703
so is this a rebirth of the substack?

1031
01:03:49,403 --> 01:03:53,203
that channel's a rebirth thing but it's a different thing

1032
01:03:53,203 --> 01:03:55,303
it's not for traders

1033
01:03:55,303 --> 01:03:58,503
you can try and trade with it.

1034
01:03:58,563 --> 01:03:59,323
It's pretty good.

1035
01:04:00,363 --> 01:04:01,543
But if you're a trader,

1036
01:04:01,623 --> 01:04:02,983
you should use an institutional product

1037
01:04:02,983 --> 01:04:04,063
which for life signals.

1038
01:04:05,223 --> 01:04:07,403
But the whole premise of this

1039
01:04:07,403 --> 01:04:09,303
is to provide a data product

1040
01:04:09,303 --> 01:04:11,923
that's going to represent our industry.

1041
01:04:12,303 --> 01:04:13,303
And so right now,

1042
01:04:13,343 --> 01:04:14,983
we're wanting to get the reach out there

1043
01:04:14,983 --> 01:04:19,703
so that the data within Bitcoin

1044
01:04:19,703 --> 01:04:22,163
and these digital assets ecosystems

1045
01:04:22,163 --> 01:04:24,743
is represented within the industry.

1046
01:04:25,303 --> 01:04:26,363
I think that'd be pretty cool.

1047
01:04:26,963 --> 01:04:29,643
So when you say you sold your Bitcoin to put into some of these startups,

1048
01:04:29,923 --> 01:04:32,263
do you think we're at the point where Bitcoin businesses

1049
01:04:32,263 --> 01:04:33,743
will be able to outperform Bitcoin?

1050
01:04:34,083 --> 01:04:34,563
Oh, yeah.

1051
01:04:35,463 --> 01:04:37,323
Those that got in on the seed,

1052
01:04:37,743 --> 01:04:41,163
the earliest investment rounds of Coinbase,

1053
01:04:41,343 --> 01:04:42,563
which was a huge success,

1054
01:04:43,903 --> 01:04:46,443
outperformed Bitcoin by a factor of 0.5,

1055
01:04:46,543 --> 01:04:48,943
meaning they got half their Bitcoins back.

1056
01:04:50,183 --> 01:04:54,943
My first investment in the space was Exodus Wallet in 2018.

1057
01:04:55,303 --> 01:05:03,103
16, 15, 16, around that time, that outperformed Bitcoin by, it's public now, 2 to 3x.

1058
01:05:03,283 --> 01:05:05,443
So I got two to three times my Bitcoin value back.

1059
01:05:07,003 --> 01:05:10,923
And back then, Bitcoin was growing by 100% annualized growth rate.

1060
01:05:11,443 --> 01:05:12,423
So it was really hard.

1061
01:05:12,503 --> 01:05:15,603
And back in the Coinbase day, it was growing sometimes 1,000%, right?

1062
01:05:15,703 --> 01:05:18,003
So it was really hard to outperform Bitcoin.

1063
01:05:18,443 --> 01:05:22,403
Now, if you know what you're doing, it's still very high risk because a lot of these

1064
01:05:22,403 --> 01:05:23,623
companies go belly up.

1065
01:05:23,623 --> 01:05:26,863
but I think it's relatively safe bet

1066
01:05:26,863 --> 01:05:30,023
that these companies would significantly do

1067
01:05:30,023 --> 01:05:31,303
more than the two to three X

1068
01:05:31,303 --> 01:05:32,323
if you get onto a winner

1069
01:05:32,323 --> 01:05:33,943
and if you get a loser,

1070
01:05:34,163 --> 01:05:37,783
hey, that was a good well-spent experiment

1071
01:05:37,783 --> 01:05:40,623
to show this thing doesn't work

1072
01:05:40,623 --> 01:05:43,523
or you've got to have a lot of failures for successes.

1073
01:05:44,523 --> 01:05:45,563
And what are the kind of businesses

1074
01:05:45,563 --> 01:05:46,303
that you're looking at?

1075
01:05:47,283 --> 01:05:50,963
Mostly stuff that I can have a hand

1076
01:05:50,963 --> 01:05:52,823
in with my existing knowledge

1077
01:05:52,823 --> 01:05:56,603
with knowing markets, knowing how hedge funds work,

1078
01:05:58,343 --> 01:06:02,303
a bit of crossover with the banking system and TradeFi.

1079
01:06:03,803 --> 01:06:06,383
So, for example, I invested in DebiFi,

1080
01:06:06,383 --> 01:06:11,203
which is the, you know, they provide a platform

1081
01:06:11,203 --> 01:06:13,383
where you can get a private key,

1082
01:06:14,403 --> 01:06:16,783
lock your Bitcoin into an escrow

1083
01:06:16,783 --> 01:06:19,843
and get a USD loan or a fiat loan

1084
01:06:19,843 --> 01:06:21,543
so you can borrow against your Bitcoin.

1085
01:06:21,543 --> 01:06:23,403
but you can do it with a private key.

1086
01:06:23,683 --> 01:06:25,923
So invested in that,

1087
01:06:26,283 --> 01:06:28,503
probably going to do something in the space

1088
01:06:28,503 --> 01:06:31,903
by providing some TradFi liquidity into that as well.

1089
01:06:33,363 --> 01:06:35,123
That's like a perfect thing for me.

1090
01:06:35,323 --> 01:06:37,303
Because you can get the lenders to come into the platform.

1091
01:06:37,463 --> 01:06:39,803
Yeah, I'm in TradFi sort of,

1092
01:06:39,903 --> 01:06:41,843
like with the overlap of hedge funds.

1093
01:06:42,903 --> 01:06:49,143
And yeah, so let's go get some USD

1094
01:06:49,143 --> 01:06:51,703
and send it to the Bitcoin as well.

1095
01:06:52,223 --> 01:06:53,543
And that should be profitable.

1096
01:06:54,063 --> 01:06:58,163
And I really like the idea of having a profitable business

1097
01:06:58,163 --> 01:07:02,543
that incentivizes self-custody.

1098
01:07:02,863 --> 01:07:05,743
The more self-custody people that are out there,

1099
01:07:05,803 --> 01:07:07,523
the more I'm going to be able to lend to.

1100
01:07:07,843 --> 01:07:10,103
So that's what I like about that one.

1101
01:07:11,343 --> 01:07:12,463
It's a weird world, isn't it?

1102
01:07:12,463 --> 01:07:14,383
I'm not self-custody, but I won't even encourage it.

1103
01:07:14,383 --> 01:07:14,943
But you're trying to push it.

1104
01:07:14,943 --> 01:07:15,203
Yeah.

1105
01:07:15,783 --> 01:07:16,023
Yeah.

1106
01:07:16,343 --> 01:07:16,743
Yeah.

1107
01:07:16,743 --> 01:07:20,583
Well, if you're putting all your money into Bitcoin businesses, you've got nothing to self-custody.

1108
01:07:21,243 --> 01:07:22,323
It's decentralized custody.

1109
01:07:23,783 --> 01:07:26,223
It's just being spread out amongst a bunch of other people.

1110
01:07:27,123 --> 01:07:28,463
They're holding your Bitcoin for you.

1111
01:07:28,723 --> 01:07:29,003
Yeah.

1112
01:07:29,203 --> 01:07:30,743
A lot of them hold Bitcoin treasuries.

1113
01:07:32,183 --> 01:07:33,543
Even that de-risks it.

1114
01:07:33,663 --> 01:07:37,603
Even if the startup goes barely up, you probably get the Bitcoin value back of what's in the treasury.

1115
01:07:37,903 --> 01:07:38,083
Yeah.

1116
01:07:38,403 --> 01:07:42,143
Are you investing in any of the Bitcoin, like the pure play Bitcoin treasury plays?

1117
01:07:43,503 --> 01:07:43,723
Yeah.

1118
01:07:44,343 --> 01:07:45,563
I hold MicroStrategy.

1119
01:07:45,563 --> 01:07:49,163
I've invested in Adam Back's BSDR

1120
01:07:49,163 --> 01:07:51,963
because it's a bull market.

1121
01:07:52,183 --> 01:07:52,883
It's a bull market.

1122
01:07:53,223 --> 01:07:54,543
MNav will expand.

1123
01:07:55,303 --> 01:07:57,143
I don't want to hold that in the bear market

1124
01:07:57,143 --> 01:07:58,163
because I expect to compress.

1125
01:07:58,523 --> 01:08:00,503
But we've had that conversation around

1126
01:08:00,503 --> 01:08:03,423
I'm not a hodler through the entire cycle.

1127
01:08:04,123 --> 01:08:06,523
I think these ones will work really well as well

1128
01:08:06,523 --> 01:08:07,443
long term.

1129
01:08:08,183 --> 01:08:10,143
They will just have higher expansion

1130
01:08:10,143 --> 01:08:13,343
and higher compression along the way.

1131
01:08:13,343 --> 01:08:16,403
I do not like that it centralizes the supply.

1132
01:08:16,603 --> 01:08:17,923
And I think that's a risk on the system.

1133
01:08:19,023 --> 01:08:19,883
Yeah, I agree.

1134
01:08:20,743 --> 01:08:22,903
I've struggled to get my head properly

1135
01:08:22,903 --> 01:08:24,064
around the Bitcoin treasury companies,

1136
01:08:24,163 --> 01:08:26,443
not in terms of whether they are sustainable

1137
01:08:26,443 --> 01:08:27,183
as a business model,

1138
01:08:27,223 --> 01:08:28,303
but whether it's good for Bitcoin.

1139
01:08:29,103 --> 01:08:30,103
And the truth is,

1140
01:08:30,223 --> 01:08:31,223
it doesn't matter what I say.

1141
01:08:31,363 --> 01:08:32,163
Bitcoin's money for enemies.

1142
01:08:32,263 --> 01:08:33,463
People can do with it what they want.

1143
01:08:34,064 --> 01:08:36,503
But it's not the future that I maybe saw.

1144
01:08:36,963 --> 01:08:39,083
Yeah, well, the thing with it is

1145
01:08:39,083 --> 01:08:41,564
Bitcoin needs capital.

1146
01:08:41,564 --> 01:08:45,023
If it's going to flip gold and it's going to flip fiat,

1147
01:08:45,683 --> 01:08:48,203
actually that's what we're really talking about is ending fiat,

1148
01:08:49,383 --> 01:08:52,723
it needs to get bigger and it's got to swallow up big chunks of capital.

1149
01:08:53,403 --> 01:08:59,983
And so the ETS and these equity-based treasury companies allow easy access

1150
01:08:59,983 --> 01:09:04,003
and they suck in from traditional bond markets.

1151
01:09:05,043 --> 01:09:07,064
They're eating huge amounts of capital.

1152
01:09:07,323 --> 01:09:09,343
So that's the good side.

1153
01:09:09,343 --> 01:09:19,443
The bad side is that it makes Bitcoin more brittle because, hey, what if the US government decides this Bitcoin thing looks like gold?

1154
01:09:19,583 --> 01:09:20,564
We could back it.

1155
01:09:20,963 --> 01:09:24,283
We could back our US dollar with Bitcoin.

1156
01:09:24,743 --> 01:09:25,883
We've done that before.

1157
01:09:26,043 --> 01:09:31,603
Why don't we just nationalize all the gold back into our digital Fort Knox?

1158
01:09:31,983 --> 01:09:35,923
And the low-hanging fruit would be all these public listed companies.

1159
01:09:36,083 --> 01:09:37,763
They'd probably do it through an offering.

1160
01:09:37,763 --> 01:09:40,863
but they can nationalize the gold

1161
01:09:40,863 --> 01:09:42,963
and the Bitcoin

1162
01:09:42,963 --> 01:09:44,963
and they've done it before

1163
01:09:44,963 --> 01:09:46,443
so that's a risk

1164
01:09:46,443 --> 01:09:49,383
That's not a 0% risk

1165
01:09:49,383 --> 01:09:50,383
I could see that future

1166
01:09:50,383 --> 01:09:51,323
It's happened before

1167
01:09:51,323 --> 01:09:54,523
and then what happens when the big bags

1168
01:09:54,523 --> 01:09:56,143
they didn't nationalize all the gold

1169
01:09:56,143 --> 01:09:57,064
India had gold

1170
01:09:57,064 --> 01:10:00,343
but they managed to put the money

1171
01:10:00,343 --> 01:10:01,583
back onto

1172
01:10:01,583 --> 01:10:04,883
into one location

1173
01:10:04,883 --> 01:10:06,923
which means that you can then

1174
01:10:06,923 --> 01:10:14,043
close that redeemability, which happened in 1921, you're back to fear. And so I think

1175
01:10:14,043 --> 01:10:21,423
that that's a decent risk. The idea of going from fiat to Bitcoin and back to fiat is one

1176
01:10:21,423 --> 01:10:24,423
of the scariest propositions. I know, right? We don't need that to happen.

1177
01:10:24,423 --> 01:10:28,983
People will say, oh, we tried that before it didn't work, you know? And so-

1178
01:10:28,983 --> 01:10:35,564
True fiat has never been tried. Oh, you know, true fiat is actually probably

1179
01:10:35,564 --> 01:10:40,483
what holds the whole world up right now because when we cite all the cases of fiat dying in

1180
01:10:40,483 --> 01:10:45,763
the past, they were localized countries that went to fiat because they mismanaged themselves

1181
01:10:45,763 --> 01:10:51,123
so bad and they debased themselves and became fiat and they blew up immediately. And what

1182
01:10:51,123 --> 01:11:01,683
happened was we had the entire world, after World War II, we had all the worlds agree

1183
01:11:01,683 --> 01:11:07,843
that the US was going to be good to use the US dollar.

1184
01:11:08,123 --> 01:11:09,143
The New Deal was that.

1185
01:11:10,003 --> 01:11:12,603
And then the US said, well, it's still gold backed,

1186
01:11:12,763 --> 01:11:14,923
but all the gold is going to be in Fort Knox.

1187
01:11:15,343 --> 01:11:21,663
And so that whole process when the redeemability got snipped

1188
01:11:21,663 --> 01:11:26,003
meant that we managed to rug the entire world to fiat

1189
01:11:26,003 --> 01:11:27,703
all at the same time.

1190
01:11:27,703 --> 01:11:31,623
And that's what's holding it up because we're in the same boat.

1191
01:11:31,683 --> 01:11:32,843
we're all debasing together.

1192
01:11:33,303 --> 01:11:35,564
Whereas in the past,

1193
01:11:35,683 --> 01:11:38,923
only one country would debase to oblivion.

1194
01:11:39,183 --> 01:11:41,463
And so let's see how long it lasts for.

1195
01:11:42,043 --> 01:11:44,104
But it's probably not going to be pretty.

1196
01:11:44,923 --> 01:11:46,104
No, I think it's...

1197
01:11:46,104 --> 01:11:48,003
I mean, who knows if even that gold

1198
01:11:48,003 --> 01:11:49,143
is still in Fort Knox as well.

1199
01:11:49,983 --> 01:11:51,243
Right? No audit.

1200
01:11:51,543 --> 01:11:51,743
Yeah.

1201
01:11:52,023 --> 01:11:54,104
We were promised a live stream audit by Elon Musk

1202
01:11:54,104 --> 01:11:55,643
and I wonder why that never happened.

1203
01:11:56,203 --> 01:11:58,243
Yeah, well, yeah, that would have been good.

1204
01:11:58,463 --> 01:12:00,083
They've fallen out now, so...

1205
01:12:00,083 --> 01:12:00,363
True.

1206
01:12:00,363 --> 01:12:01,903
but thank you so much

1207
01:12:01,903 --> 01:12:02,223
this Willie

1208
01:12:02,223 --> 01:12:02,923
this has been good

1209
01:12:02,923 --> 01:12:04,303
we better get to the conference

1210
01:12:04,303 --> 01:12:05,143
oh yeah Danny

1211
01:12:05,143 --> 01:12:05,843
let's go

1212
01:12:05,843 --> 01:12:07,083
but thank you man

1213
01:12:07,083 --> 01:12:07,543
that was great

1214
01:12:07,543 --> 01:12:07,903
alright