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It's absolutely central control, and it definitely shafts the citizen.

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The days of imperial America as the global hegemon will be drawing to a close.

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There's much more to come in this fourth turning.

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You don't really see a world where conflicts, little hotspots around the world doesn't escalate.

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It's going to get worse before it gets better.

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We can print all the treasuries and dollars we want, but at some point we're going to run out of the supplies.

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The world is changing really fast.

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It's going to be almost unrecognizable.

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I'm sorry, but you're not going to win. You're going to be the creative destruction. During times

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like this, when people are desperate, you have to do something or they will do something to you.

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We have the fragmenting of the world, multipolar world, like a money that doesn't require trust

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seems like it should do very well in that situation. So those of us who understand Bitcoin

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would say it's basically built for this. You can't stop a technology or an idea whose time has come.

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good to see you again mate you are one of my favorite people to have on the show i think this

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is the fourth time we've recorded um and the world's pretty crazy right now and one of the

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most interesting things that i've been watching is that march was i think gold's worst year sorry

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month since 2013 um meanwhile like since this iran conflict started bitcoin's been pretty good

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is sort of sideways a little bit up. And now there's talk of people using Bitcoin to cross

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the straight-up for moose, which seems like there's a ton of signal in that. But I don't know

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if it's just getting overexcited as a Bitcoin. How do you take that all in?

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So first of all, thanks for having me back on the show, Danny. I love talking with you. And so it's

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fun to be back here with you. Man, so what do we say about that? So I don't put a lot of stock into

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either of those moves in the short term. And that's because basically, as far as the technicals,

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the stuff that I look at as a fund manager, gold had become pretty overbought at that point. And it

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was just kind of ready for a correction. It's just it ran out of buyers for a while. Everybody was so

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excited about gold and all the other precious metals, silver, platinum, palladium, those kind

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of things. And it just needed a break. So I think a lot of this was just kind of a healthy pullback.

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And then I would actually say much to the chagrin of Bitcoiners that it was probably just

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you know, Bitcoin was due for a bounce after being very oversold. I still think we're just

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kind of in the middle of a typical Bitcoin drawdown, a bear market for Bitcoin. This is

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kind of what happens when the economy is hurting and when liquidity is tightening up a little bit.

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And we can get into things like that about the fact that the dollar has been strengthening,

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though it recently broke. You know, it's April 14th when we're recording this. So

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several days ago, the dollar basically broke and has been heading lower. That generally is good

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for risk assets and generally good for Bitcoin. So we've been seeing, I think, kind of a reflexive

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response in that way. I will say, since we're talking about Bitcoin quickly, that since October,

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and I'm a momentum guy. So since October, Bitcoin has been fighting against the 100-day moving

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average, and it's been losing. So in late October, it tried a few times to cross and hold above the

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100-day moving average and then got rejected and went way down. And then let's see, probably,

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you know what, let me just look so I can make sure I'm saying factual things. So January 14th and 15th,

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it fought again with it. It crossed the 100-day moving average, simple moving average,

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which was at that point about 97,000 and then got soundly rejected again.

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And that's when it started the next leg of the bear market down where it went all the way until February 5th to a low of,

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at least according to my charts, about 60, no, 59,000 on the 6th.

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So that was painful. And then we've been clawing our way back.

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And then ironically, as we are recording this today, it just today for the first time since all the way back in January, mid-January,

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Today, it crossed, went above the 100-day moving average, which is sitting at about 75,000 right now.

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But it looks like it's going to close just below it again.

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So, you know, I don't like to be cynical, but I think until the pattern changes, it's probably going to continue.

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I hope it holds above the 100-day moving average, but this would be, at least based on the last six months of history, this would be a great place for it to get rejected again.

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I just kind of think it has one more leg lower before it's officially the bottom.

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But, you know, who knows? I don't I don't you know, I try to get out of the predicting prediction business, the price prediction business.

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But when when liquidity isn't doing great, when there's the uncertainty of war, things like that, when when the dollar has been strengthening, when oil's been high, those kind of things hold the price down.

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Now, so so all of that said, I would not be surprised if we have one more leg lower, but I do what the price says.

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So if we happen to take the 100-day moving average and then start to form a very solid base, because I think we're in a very bottoming pattern right now. These bottoming patterns for Bitcoin can be soul-crushing, as most people know. In 2022, a lot of people thought it was over in about June of 2022. And we chopped around. I think we went up in maybe August or something and then crashed back down again in November and December. And then it finally started again.

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And so if I, you know, if I had to say, I'd say we're probably still due for several months of this like painful chop where it just can't gain any traction.

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But who knows?

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You know, based on the way I manage the fund, it's all just momentum based.

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If we continue to gather momentum over the short term and the medium term and then finally long term momentum, that would be extremely bullish.

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So that's my general take on Bitcoin.

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OK, I'm not really a chart guy, so I've got two questions in that.

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One is, why is the 100-day moving average so important?

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And then also, if we do go lower, are you saying you think we'll go lower from here,

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you know, like back to 60s?

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Or do you think we'll actually go to a new low for this cycle?

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I'm actually hoping we hit a new low.

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To answer your second question first, I said hey to the 58k gang.

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I think we could have one more time where we dip down into the 50,000s.

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I hope so, you know, as just a kind of a long-term saver in Bitcoin,

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like the lower, the better, as far as I'm concerned.

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I know a lot of people just want to make money and trade it, you know, to get rich in the short term.

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But, you know, for those of us who are just in it because it truly is better money for a better world, don't really care.

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I hope it goes lower. So I'm hoping for one more trip down sub 60K.

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I hope we can say hi to the 58K gang one more time.

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The 100 day moving average to answer that question.

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You know, I don't know if for for whatever reason and just as a guy who I've been watching these charts for, you know,

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over a decade now and just kind of seeing how prices move during different secular movements,

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whether it's a bear market or a bull market or a crab market, different asset classes tend to

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fiddle around with different moving averages. And that tends to be their bane or their boon. So it's

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either their ceiling or it's their support. And right now, Bitcoin has just sort of chosen the

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100-day moving average. There's no magical reason to it. There's no explanation for it that I know

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of at least. But I think what traders do is they're like me and they see like, oh, hey,

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it keeps trying to cross the 100-day moving average and then getting rejected there. So

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this would probably be a good time to put on shorts or to take profits from a trading perspective.

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I think that's what people think. And then they tend to, because they believe it and they act on

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it, then it tends to perpetuate the story and then it turns it into a reality. So for what it's worth,

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don't put too much into it. Most listeners should just simply be stacking stats and don't worry

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about any of this nonsense exactly and that's why 58k gang sounds great to me i'll definitely be

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stacking down there because even at this price like it's funny how quickly your perspective

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changes on bitcoin that 74k or 70k whatever we're at today feels like value to me like these are

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areas where i'm more than willing to buy whereas not very long ago this was you know unimaginable

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um right but what do you think happens through this year then if you think you know obviously

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one leg lower potentially but do you think we can have a strong end to 2026 or do you think

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we're in like a typical bear market right now? I think, well, both. So I think we're in a typical

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bear market right now. But I think the year is going to finish strong based on the things that

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I'm looking at. So several things, usually the second year of the presidential cycle,

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which we're in is usually bad for stocks, bad for risk assets, tends to not be very good for

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Bitcoin as well. I think we all remember 2022 was the last time this happened. When liquidity tends

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to roll over and weaken, that tends to not be very good for risk assets, tends to not be very

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good for Bitcoin. That's kind of where we're at again, right here. So I'm generally bearish for

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now and mostly bearish just because the charts have been bearish. And so I don't try to tell

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the price what to do. I just sort of watch what it does and respond accordingly. To me,

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it makes the most sense that we kind of have just several weeks to months of choppiness.

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Maybe we have a couple of false starts where everybody gets excited and then we get all disappointed again.

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But I would say by Q4, the fourth quarter, somewhere around the midterm elections here in the U.S., that usually tends to reignite some bullishness.

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And just based on cyclical patterns, I would be surprised if we didn't have kind of a bullish end to the year after sort of a disappointing half to three quarters of a year leading up to that.

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So I'm not bullish for now, but I plan on being bullish as the year ends.

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And what drives that?

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Is that going to be a Bitcoin specific thing?

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Or do you think markets more generally will be good through the end of the year?

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So I think it's a lot of things.

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It's psychology.

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So, you know, again, the U.S. tends to drive the global economy so far because we still

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are the financial center for now in the world.

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So as optimism starts to rise again, so maybe, you know, during reelections, usually the

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other team gets very excited and they tend to get a lot of their players in, whether it's Congress,

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you know, the Senate or the House or whatever, or governorship. Those kind of things happen. So

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that sort of creates a renewed optimism that the country is going to move back in the right

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direction. It's also the start of the new fiscal year for the US starting in October. And so we get

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kind of new money gets put to work. That's a reason to be optimistic. And then just as you

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come into a new year, every year it tends to be the same that from October, usually through April,

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that seasonality, it just tends to be more bullish in general. So from, you know, selling May and go

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away, you've heard that before, usually from May to the end of September, it tends to be kind of

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weak for risk assets, even a little weak for Bitcoin. But then you see more strength as you

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go into those time periods. So that's generally, you know, none of that, it doesn't have to do any

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of that but based on past precedent that's generally what happens for risk assets and what

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coverage. Visit anchorwatch.com today. That's anchorwatch.com. One of my favorite frameworks

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that you've kind of laid out in previous shows was, I think it was in sort of the summer last

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year, you talked about the three burners of the economy. Do you want to just quickly explain what

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that was in case anyone missed that show? And then I want to know where we're at with those

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three burners. Sure. So three burners. So the three things I focus on mostly as a macro investor are

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One is what is liquidity doing? So basically, how much liquidity is there in the system? I like to actually affectionately call it the liquidity blob. So how big is the blob? Is it growing or is it shrinking? And then very importantly, is the blob centered over the government or is it moving towards the markets, towards the people? And that has a huge impact.

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So one example of that moving from the people to the government is during tax season.

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So if a lot, so say there's been a very bullish, like a bull market, lots of people owe taxes in America.

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What they do is they pay taxes around April and that liquidity blob goes from the people from their savings account back to the government, to the coffers of the Treasury General account.

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And then there are times where the government is spending a lot of money.

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So a lot of fiscal stimulus or monetary stimulus from central banks, those can enlarge the liquidity blob and they can move the blob over to the people.

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So I watch that very closely and you can sort of predict what different asset classes are going to do.

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And based on those sorts of things, different asset classes generally do well.

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They'll follow that over time.

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They may not over the short term.

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It doesn't predict short term price movements, but you can see secular trends like that.

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So why does that matter right now?

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So the Trump administration, right, they are absolutely in war footing right now.

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They say as far as they're concerned, we're basically and I and I actually put a poll out.

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I don't I'm not on NOSR very often anymore, but I threw a poll out and I said, we're in World War Three.

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Yes or no. And 55 so far, 55 percent of people say, yes, we're actually in World War Three right now.

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And so 45 percent of people think that the 55 percent are crazy.

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Like, what are you what are you even talking about?

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So that's that's a whole whole nother discussion, I'm sure.

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point being we can get into that because i want to know your take on it yeah okay okay well yeah

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let's talk about this first so the trump administration is absolutely in wartime

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mentality they keep talking about the manhattan project they keep talking about their adversaries

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you know they picked a fight out of nowhere it seems with iran why are we doing that um uh calling

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you know china our primary adversary and um they're trying to get america behind them and they're

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spending gobs and gobs of money and they're asking for more and more gobs and gobs of money which

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this liquidity blob, it's going to greatly expand the liquidity blob. So despite the first year of

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Trump where they talked about Doge, right, they're going to do austerity, they're going to save the

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economy. And Elon was all psyched about that. That's just gone. There's no chance that that

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happens at this point. Now we're just all about we are going to spend like crazy. We're going to

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grow the economy. And we're going to do that by centering all of our focus on building out our

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infrastructure. We want to build out our, you know, energy infrastructure, our manufacturing

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capabilities, mostly our military industrial complex, our rare earth capabilities. We're

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going to try to grow all of that here in America. So everything is made in America as we become a

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more multipolar nation. And they're doing everything they can. And, you know, Trump,

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in the way he does, he moves super fast so that Congress can't keep up with them and the judges

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can't keep up with them. And then he'll deal with it later if they slap it down. But for now,

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that's how fast they're moving. And I think they're doing that on purpose. They're moving

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fast and breaking things. And they'll deal with the repercussions later. But they're trying to get

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the economy revved up again in the US. And then I think he's basically bad mouthing and cajoling

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Europe and the other Western allies to get them to do the same thing, saying like, hey, we don't

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have your back anymore. You don't have our back. So we don't have your back. You're going to have

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to start spending seriously on military. And again, that has crazy repercussions that we can

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talk about. But all of this said, what they're going to do and what they're asking Congress is

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we want to greatly expand our military budget. And they're being very generous in their military

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budget with what they're spending it on. And it's all of those things I mentioned where they're

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trying to bring back energy production, manufacturing, the military industrial

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complex, the whole war machine, all back here to the US. They're trying to drum up support and talk

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about the Manhattan Project. They're talking about how great World War II is and let's make America

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great. Remember how we all banded together and we built all these awesome things and we defeated the

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enemies, like that's what we need to do here. So because of that, it's actually hard for the

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economy to do poorly when that happens. So and I'll tell us I'll fend off a question you're

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probably going to ask somewhere down the road is, are we headed to recession? And I would say

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absolutely not. When you have that much fiscal spending and you have this much boom on the

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economy growing, like you just can't have a recession almost by definition when the government

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is just funneling all of this money and all of its energy into the economy. You just don't get

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a recession. You can't have negative GDP growth when that happens. So unless we get nuked or

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something crazy like that, just some totally black swan type event or a massive cyber security thing

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and our internet shuts down for weeks and months, then yes, that would cause us to fall into a

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recession. But if that does not happen, I actually am pretty bullish on the economy in general. And

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this comes full circle to the three burners. So burner number one is liquidity. The liquidity blob

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is trying to grow very hard and the government is trying to push it out into the real economy.

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I love that because in the past, what they did is they did the liquidity blob through the Fed,

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the Federal Reserve, central banks. They created this money and they basically propped up assets.

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So stocks went high, Bitcoin went high, crypto nonsense went high, but that didn't really help

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the general economy This whole thing of getting the economy moving and funneling all their energy and money into that is actually bullish for the economy in general And it used to be super bullish for blue collar workers and for the middle class But unfortunately that also changing too

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You know, with AI, with robotics, we're having this sort of jobless recovery in manufacturing.

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And I think that's actually going to accelerate in the coming months and the coming years.

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still trying to stay on your three burner thing. So liquidity. Number two is basically manufacturing.

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So the economy that I'm talking about, I think we I'm sure we talked about this on our past

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episodes or recent episodes. I follow the ISM manufacturing PMI very closely. That's basically

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is the manufacturing sector in America growing or is it contracting? Is it bullish or is it like

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in a recession. From 2022 through basically this year, early 2026, it's mostly been in contraction.

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It's basically never been in contraction for that long since World War II. It's unprecedented.

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It tried a couple times to blip up above and then it something tanked it, like the tariffs

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tanked it before and other types of things have tanked it when it tried to get above.

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This time, it looks like it's for real. It's back above 50 and it looks like it's going to

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accelerate. I will say that a strong dollar, high interest rates and high oil prices tend to hurt

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the economy. They hurt manufacturing because it raises the prices, it raises the cost of capital.

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It raises the producer price index, the PPI, the costs of goods that manufacturers have to pay for

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to create their products. If those are all rising, obviously that hurts the margins of businesses and

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it can actually hurt the economy. But what we've just seen the last couple of days is oil's coming

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down. The dollar just broke again. Rates are coming down again. So that's, again, bullish for

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the economy. So that's burner number two. This is the world's longest answer. And then burner number

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three is liquidity. So basically, when you see your neighbor making money in the stocks and you

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see somebody making a lot of money in crypto, you want to make up for lost time so people start

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adding leverage. So when leverage starts coming back into the system in major ways, that tends to

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push bull markets, actually, you can have leverage long liquidation cascades on the downside. So in

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bear markets, people can get wiped out. But in the upside, as people start applying leverage,

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it tends to push asset prices higher and higher. And that's when you get those blow off peaks,

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which we didn't have in Bitcoin this year, I couldn't help but notice, we never got that blow

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off top. But now instead, we're just getting after kind of a sad bull market ending in October,

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we've just been coming down since then.

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So, and then one last thing that's encouraging.

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And just while I'm thinking about it,

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because it's all interrelated,

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one thing that's encouraging is not just,

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we're not seeing stimulus just from the government.

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We're seeing bank lending coming back to the US.

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So that's actually really encouraging.

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So when regular people or businesses just need money,

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they go and borrow money from banks.

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And if banks are bullish on the economy in general,

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and they believe in what these people

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or these businesses are doing, they'll loan them money.

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So right now we're seeing large banks

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are making a lot of loans and that's come it wasn't a basically a real bear market up until like uh

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mid 2023 and it's been accelerating now small banks are are also accelerating though at a slower

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pace but in general we're seeing bank lending again that also increases the liquidity blob

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because as we know when banks lend they're basically just creating dollars out of thin air

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that increases the size of the liquidity blob and that is all moving into the economy so that's very

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healthy. So all of those signs are actually very healthy for the economy in general.

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So, I mean, we first talked about that. I've got so many questions.

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We first talked about this maybe nine months ago, and probably the strongest call that you made out

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of that was that you did think manufacturing was going to come back in a real way. And I think the

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last three months have been positive and it's looking really good there. Obviously, there's

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still the risk of high rates, high oil, high dollar price that could impact that. But is that

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the most bullish thing you're seeing right now? That's the most encouraging thing I'm seeing. So

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you wouldn't think that as a fund manager, you'd think I just want stock prices to go up and Bitcoin

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to go up. But I want to see our economy be healthy again, because it's been so unhealthy and sick.

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We had that. It was actually heading into a depression as COVID hit. And then COVID just,

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you know, thumped it, just crushed the whole world and all the decisions the government's made,

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shutting down all businesses around the world, which I think was a crazy decision. And then they,

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you know, stimulated like crazy fiscally and monetarily and caused that massive inflation.

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So asset prices spiked and then also inflation ended up spiking in 2022.

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The markets have literally just been trying to recover from that assault basically for the last four years or so.

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So what I see now are signs of the market actually recovering again, that the cycle is finally coming back,

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that manufacturing is finally coming back. And that's good.

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We want to see and not just in America, we want to see all countries start to increase.

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Now, China is its own story.

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They've been on their own treadmill for quite a while.

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But the rest of the world, basically, especially the rest of the Western world, has been stuck in this malaise basically since COVID.

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And I would like to see healthy growth.

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So I am bullish on that.

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And I'm bullish because, you know, from a sound money standpoint, from a Bitcoin and gold standpoint, they tend to do well in these periods.

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And these types of periods, what you see is inflation runs hotter because you get this structural inflation.

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Like as we try to bring back manufacturing to all of our countries and build up military and do all this stuff, it's expensive.

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And somebody has to pay for that, right?

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And so the way the governments do it is they borrow and they borrow and they borrow.

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And inflation runs kind of hotter and hotter.

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Not crazy hot.

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I'm not saying like out of control inflation, but higher inflation than we're used to.

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And then what they try to do is they try to manufacture lower borrowing rates.

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And so that's called yield curve control.

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That's something I think is going to be coming here in the next couple of years and probably coming to most Western nations,

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where they're just going to have to borrow a crazy amount of money where all of the spending that they're doing is going to cause a rise in inflation.

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And if they can hold down rates, basically the bondholders get shafted.

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They're losing their purchasing power and they're actually losing money in real terms.

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It's good for the government because they can actually inflate their debt away.

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That's where that term comes from over time.

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And it kind of feels good because the economy can sort of run hot.

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And then as long as people are in a good enough mood and not trying to overthrow the government, it actually can sort of work well for everybody.

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So that's what I think is probably going to come unless we get into unless World War Three gets really hot, if that's what's happening.

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um that's and that's a whole different story so so wars are tough to predict what's going to happen

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because you don't know who's going to win or lose and you don't know who's going to attack whom

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um but uh man i i'm i'm going i'm kind of going down a bunch of rabbit holes too so i'll try to

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stop just stop me anytime i'm loving it i've got honestly about a thousand questions for you at the

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moment but let's talk about the yield curve control first because you just brought that up

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because they've tried that in japan it worked for a long time until it didn't is that not a

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real negative and just more sort of centralized control over the monetary system if we get that.

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Yeah. So it is. It's absolutely central control and it definitely shafts the citizens. So the last

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time we did that in earnest in the US was after World War II. We had these massive debts, but

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after World War II, people were kind of enthusiastic, right? We're like, hey, we won,

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we won, we won the war and we don't have to rebuild like Europe has to rebuild.

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It's probably going to work out pretty well for us in general.

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And so Americans didn't like it, but they were kind of OK with it.

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They're like, I guess I can see why we're doing this.

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Like we have to pay off these debts now.

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At least we won the war.

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At least we're in a way better spot than Japan and Europe is.

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So that's OK.

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This time around, it's very different.

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And I would argue, by the way, that we're already starting to do some yield curve control

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here.

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The Treasury is already doing a kind of operation twist.

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They're already not issuing as many bonds on the long end, and they're issuing way more

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T-bills. All of that, all of these little things they're doing is they're kind of quietly behind

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the scenes, keeping the rates down on the long end of the spectrum, especially the 10 years.

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Scott Besant said early on, watch the 10-year yield. And I believe that he's just been focused

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like a hawk on the 10-year yield. And they're doing little tiny tricks to keep that rate down.

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So if you don't keep issuing a ton of 10-year yields, then you artificially suppress this.

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If you're keeping the supply down, then even if there's not much demand, that'll keep the

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prices down in general.

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So they're doing things like that, issuing a lot of T-bills, short end kind of stuff.

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And all of this stuff is, I would say, a form of yield curve control already.

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When they officially announce it, that will be a much more traumatic thing.

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Do you think they will actually officially announce it and call it yield curve control?

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I think if we get into, I think if the hot war increases over the coming years, which

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I think it will. I think we'll be forced to do that. And I think they're going to try to get

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America on board with, look, we just need to do this. You know, they'll say things like,

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we can't let the bond market spin out of control. We have to borrow this for this great cause of

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this war or whatever thing we're fighting. So let's all just kind of get on board with this.

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And I do think, by the way, this is a huge reason why Besant and the Trump administration in general

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is so supportive of stable coins. I think what they want to do is let the world embrace Tether

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and USDC. And in like, you can all have that. And then what they do then is they issue all of this

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debt, these short term T-bills, and they can inflate away their debt to the world. So everyone

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in the world who's holding dollars, even in the form of USDC or USDT or whatever stable coin they

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want to hold, they're going to get inflated away. It's over the short term. So you definitely don't

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notice, but they are still getting inflated away. And I think that's why our government is pushing

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stable coins so much. But if we get true yield curve control, that's the government essentially

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either buying or selling its own bonds to keep it like a target rate, right? So is that just a,

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is that the big print essentially? Yes. Yeah. So that's when the Larry Lepard big print comes

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into play. So I don't think we're super close to that. Like unless we have a major calamity in the

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near term. That's not going to happen. But maybe if the war escalates at some point, and I think,

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by the way, I'll just answer your question right now. Yes, I think we're in World War III. I think

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it's basically the seeds were sown in the great financial crisis in 2008, 2009. I think China

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realized that this is a rotten deal, the US dollar financial system. So they, in 2014, started doing

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tangible things like they quit buying US treasuries actively, and they started stockpiling

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things, mainly rare earths, you know, plus oil, plus coal, they've ramped up all of their

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production of everything. They are the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and the energy powerhouse

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of the world now, not unlike America back in the 1930s. They've been kind of mentally preparing

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for this. And then Russia, when we cut them off from their treasuries when they invaded Ukraine,

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they're like, okay, we're in no more of this nonsense of us being on the dollar base, you know,

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the petrodollar system. So they've been preparing since then. And then all of these little proxy

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wars, at least for me as a guy who studies history and economic history, this is just like the 1930s

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to me. It's just like when, you know, Japan invaded China in the 30s and, you know, Germany invaded

387
00:31:29,685 --> 00:31:33,905
Poland in the late 30s. And then here in America, we think World War II didn't start until Pearl

388
00:31:33,905 --> 00:31:38,865
Harbor in 1941, but it had been going on long before that, depending on where you live. And so

389
00:31:38,865 --> 00:31:43,525
i just think this is the same thing and to me that what will officially mark the start of world war

390
00:31:43,525 --> 00:31:48,505
three uh when it's like okay this is for real is when china officially gets involved and we're not

391
00:31:48,505 --> 00:31:54,185
there yet and i pray that it doesn't happen but i think it will probably happen uh and i think that

392
00:31:54,185 --> 00:31:58,125
will be when it's like okay this is for real like the whole world is now officially at war and this

393
00:31:58,125 --> 00:32:04,765
is going to get ugly okay so world war three that's scary um what do you think it looks like

394
00:32:04,765 --> 00:32:06,385
if this is World War III?

395
00:32:06,465 --> 00:32:08,245
Because we obviously have had the proxy war

396
00:32:08,245 --> 00:32:09,205
with Russia and Ukraine.

397
00:32:09,645 --> 00:32:11,845
This is not a proxy war, the US and Iran,

398
00:32:11,985 --> 00:32:13,805
but it's like war from a distance.

399
00:32:14,085 --> 00:32:15,625
There's no troops on the ground.

400
00:32:16,185 --> 00:32:17,985
How does this escalate from here?

401
00:32:19,145 --> 00:32:21,305
So first, so it's April 14th.

402
00:32:21,305 --> 00:32:22,545
So things change by the day.

403
00:32:22,605 --> 00:32:23,805
So I'd like to be clear about this.

404
00:32:24,225 --> 00:32:27,305
Right now, where we are is we have put a blockade

405
00:32:27,305 --> 00:32:29,485
on the Persian Gulf, right on the Strait of Hormuz.

406
00:32:29,985 --> 00:32:31,805
And we say we're clearing the mines

407
00:32:31,805 --> 00:32:34,605
so that the nations can all freely trade

408
00:32:34,605 --> 00:32:40,745
oil. I think that that's, and this is going to sound like a conspiracy, but I think what we're

409
00:32:40,745 --> 00:32:47,645
doing is we're getting ready for phase two of this war. We have, I think, three aircraft carriers

410
00:32:47,645 --> 00:32:54,065
in the area. Lots of Marines are either there or almost in the Persian Gulf area. We've got

411
00:32:54,065 --> 00:32:59,745
paratroopers in place. I believe France has an aircraft carrier close by, even though they're

412
00:32:59,745 --> 00:33:05,245
denying that they're helping in any way. I think we're going to make a play for the islands in the

413
00:33:05,245 --> 00:33:10,385
Persian Gulf, and especially for Karg Island, which is like the main hub, the control center

414
00:33:10,385 --> 00:33:16,925
for Iran's oil. I think 90% of their oil goes through Karg Island. I've noticed we've bombed

415
00:33:16,925 --> 00:33:23,645
Karg Island twice, us and I believe Israel jointly, and we haven't destroyed any of the oil

416
00:33:23,645 --> 00:33:31,305
facilities. We've only destroyed basically their defenses and their runway. I will be surprised if

417
00:33:31,305 --> 00:33:38,025
within the next week, so let's say by Wednesday of next week, which would be April 22nd,

418
00:33:38,525 --> 00:33:43,585
I will be very surprised if the U.S. doesn't have a presence on Karg Island, or at least has not

419
00:33:43,585 --> 00:33:47,305
tried to have a presence on Karg Island. I think we will have troops on the ground,

420
00:33:47,305 --> 00:33:52,305
and I think it will come to light that more nations are supporting the U.S. than are currently

421
00:33:52,305 --> 00:33:54,245
admitting that they're supporting the U.S.

422
00:33:55,625 --> 00:33:58,245
So that's conspiracy theory enough.

423
00:33:58,925 --> 00:34:07,505
But I think that the plan is to kick the hornet's nest here in the Persian Gulf to bring Europe

424
00:34:07,505 --> 00:34:13,205
in to form a coalition and basically control the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz

425
00:34:13,205 --> 00:34:14,085
going forward.

426
00:34:14,765 --> 00:34:19,325
I think that eventually, years from now, the U.S. will have pulled back out of the Persian

427
00:34:19,325 --> 00:34:25,965
Gulf, pulled back even from the first island chain, which is fencing in China right now,

428
00:34:25,985 --> 00:34:30,525
which we've been doing basically since World War II, also kind of the 70s and 80s where it got more

429
00:34:30,525 --> 00:34:35,865
real. And we're focusing on the Western Hemisphere. And I'm not getting this from just being a crazy

430
00:34:35,865 --> 00:34:40,805
guy. I'm reading the military policy of the United States government. And this is basically what

431
00:34:40,805 --> 00:34:47,065
they're saying. They're acknowledging that Europe is the former center of everything, of the economy

432
00:34:47,065 --> 00:34:51,785
and of the military strength, and they are no longer the center. It was the U.S., and they're

433
00:34:51,785 --> 00:34:57,885
basically admitting it's now China and Southeast Asia. And I think what they're trying to do is

434
00:34:57,885 --> 00:35:03,905
pull back, but keep their foot in the door, because for the next 100 years, that's where

435
00:35:03,905 --> 00:35:09,465
the center of commerce of the economy is going to be, and we want to keep our relations in the new

436
00:35:09,465 --> 00:35:14,305
multipolar world. So I think we're going to focus in the U.S. on the Western Hemisphere, but keep

437
00:35:14,305 --> 00:35:20,565
our foot in the door through the Persian Gulf and through kind of, you know, the Taiwan region

438
00:35:20,565 --> 00:35:26,125
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474
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I want to know why you think

475
00:37:51,785 --> 00:37:53,085
they want to control the strait

476
00:37:53,085 --> 00:37:55,205
because basically I think zero oil

477
00:37:55,205 --> 00:37:56,585
from the strait actually comes to the US.

478
00:37:56,705 --> 00:37:59,145
It all goes to South Asia, Southeast Asia, China.

479
00:37:59,145 --> 00:38:03,965
Is it to have a sort of bargaining chip and a bit of control over China?

480
00:38:04,905 --> 00:38:07,425
So yes, that's part of it.

481
00:38:07,525 --> 00:38:11,265
So it's not lost on me that Trump and Xi are supposed to meet in mid-May.

482
00:38:11,845 --> 00:38:14,865
We have almost no leverage over China right now, right?

483
00:38:14,925 --> 00:38:16,045
And most people know that.

484
00:38:16,525 --> 00:38:20,925
Literally, our whole military is built on Chinese products right now.

485
00:38:21,565 --> 00:38:27,205
They have the huge ace on their sleeve, which is control of rare earths.

486
00:38:27,205 --> 00:38:29,825
And they've been cutting the U.S. off of most of that.

487
00:38:29,885 --> 00:38:34,085
Anything military-grade, they've been cutting off Japan as well and other Western allies.

488
00:38:34,645 --> 00:38:41,145
I think from the U.S. perspective, or from Trump's perspective, we think, look, if we can sort of have the control—

489
00:38:41,145 --> 00:38:44,565
because one thing China doesn't do well is produce its own oil.

490
00:38:44,665 --> 00:38:45,485
They have to import.

491
00:38:45,645 --> 00:38:50,185
And they have, by the way, imported an amazingly huge amount of oil, so they have huge reserves.

492
00:38:50,585 --> 00:38:52,685
But at some point, that could be an issue for them.

493
00:38:52,685 --> 00:39:15,565
So I think from Trump's perspective, he thinks a way to at least match them and negotiating ability is one, we have a very powerful military, obviously, still. And two, if we can sort of cut off their easy access to oil, that would be a very strong card. So maybe we trade easy access to oil for some of the rare earths. It's a really interesting, and I'm sure you read Luke Grohman, and I know you've probably had him on your show.

494
00:39:15,565 --> 00:39:35,565
So I agree with his take in general. I think it's a really weird situation to be in where we're basically begging China for rare earths to build weapons that we would use against China. It's just so awkward. But that's the situation we're in right now. So I think they're trying to do what they can do to gain some type of leverage over the coming months.

495
00:39:35,565 --> 00:39:41,505
And I do think that we don't really care about control over the Strait of Hormuz, I would say, in the U.S.

496
00:39:41,845 --> 00:39:47,905
I think part of us, we want Karg Island, which is where 90% of the oil flows through currently.

497
00:39:48,525 --> 00:40:03,250
If we can control that we can basically control Iran sort of politically So basically if you don open the Strait of Hormuz for our allies we just going to shut you off from your profits from

498
00:40:03,250 --> 00:40:08,310
Karg Island. And a guy who's done really good work on this is a guy named Charlie Garcia. He has a

499
00:40:08,310 --> 00:40:12,630
substack, and I would recommend anybody who hasn't read him to go and read him. He's done a good job.

500
00:40:12,690 --> 00:40:16,830
He calls Karg Island like the thermostat. You can turn it down, and you can put a ton of pressure

501
00:40:16,830 --> 00:40:20,710
on Iran if they're not doing what we want them to do. You don't even need a regime change.

502
00:40:21,170 --> 00:40:24,870
You can kind of pressure them to do stuff financially. And if you cut them off from

503
00:40:24,870 --> 00:40:31,470
all it from, I think their oil revenue is about 50% of their country's revenue per year. So if you

504
00:40:31,470 --> 00:40:35,850
can basically shut that down to zero through controlling this thermostat called Karg Island,

505
00:40:36,330 --> 00:40:40,670
you can make them do a lot of things diplomatically, even without a regime change.

506
00:40:41,070 --> 00:40:45,970
And then you can dial it up as they become more compliant over the long term, then you turn up

507
00:40:45,970 --> 00:40:50,130
their access and they gain much more profits from that. So I think that's the play that the

508
00:40:50,130 --> 00:40:53,650
Trump administration is doing right now, but we'll find out in the coming weeks, I think.

509
00:40:54,390 --> 00:40:59,250
Do you think this potentially escalates to being a war between the U.S., like a direct war between

510
00:40:59,250 --> 00:41:03,370
the U.S. and China? Because I'm sure you saw the press conference that Trump did where he was

511
00:41:03,370 --> 00:41:08,950
talking about the big one and obviously referring to China. And in the past, we've spoken about a

512
00:41:08,950 --> 00:41:15,130
potential hotspot with Taiwan, China trying to take Taiwan back. Do you think that is on the cards?

513
00:41:15,970 --> 00:41:19,390
I have I've spent a ton of time thinking about this.

514
00:41:19,610 --> 00:41:24,770
And I think that part of the reason why we are pulling back.

515
00:41:25,290 --> 00:41:29,570
So we have all these commitments, especially to the the first island chain nations.

516
00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:40,830
Right. So South Korea, Japan, down to the Philippines, Southeast Asia, that whole area where we've kind of sworn to protect them, especially Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.

517
00:41:40,830 --> 00:41:56,590
I personally think, and this is not a popular view, that we have realized it would be very difficult for us to protect Taiwan from China and keep China penned in as we've fenced them in and call it what it is.

518
00:41:56,650 --> 00:42:01,930
We've been fencing them in for many decades through that first island chain line of defense.

519
00:42:01,930 --> 00:42:08,270
I think we're pulling back and I think we're doing everything we can here in the U.S. to get.

520
00:42:08,270 --> 00:42:12,970
the whole reason Taiwan is important to us is semiconductors, right? The high-end semiconductors.

521
00:42:13,190 --> 00:42:19,470
We are doing everything we can to build fabs, whether it's Elon Musk or Taiwan Semi here in

522
00:42:19,470 --> 00:42:25,310
the US or partnerships with Intel, NVIDIA, all of these people. They're doing everything they can

523
00:42:25,310 --> 00:42:30,250
right now to ramp up production of high-end semiconductors in the US as fast as possible.

524
00:42:30,750 --> 00:42:36,210
If that happens, then Taiwan suddenly isn't as important to us. And so I think if we could fast

525
00:42:36,210 --> 00:42:41,810
forward 10 years from now, 10 years from now, I think Taiwan and China will be much friendlier

526
00:42:41,810 --> 00:42:48,810
with each other. And China will be free to travel into the Pacific Ocean, won't be fenced in anymore.

527
00:42:49,390 --> 00:42:54,750
Whether we come to war over that, I could see kind of a minor war where we're just like,

528
00:42:55,050 --> 00:42:58,730
both sides are like, look, we really don't want to just go at it with each other because we

529
00:42:58,730 --> 00:43:03,910
might just destroy the whole world. So let's sort of leave well enough alone. I still think there

530
00:43:03,910 --> 00:43:11,030
were some backseat, non-disclosed handshake deals between Trump and Putin and Xi, where it's like,

531
00:43:11,150 --> 00:43:16,010
we know we're moving multipolar. We're going to slowly pull back from everywhere. We're going to

532
00:43:16,010 --> 00:43:20,290
focus on the Western hemisphere. I think that's why they didn't make that big of a stink when we

533
00:43:20,290 --> 00:43:24,530
went in and took Maduro out of Venezuela. And they're not making that big a deal about it,

534
00:43:24,530 --> 00:43:28,910
even though China has been investing for the last several decades into South America and Central

535
00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:34,990
America and Russia as well. I think they're letting us sort of take this area over and they're going to

536
00:43:34,990 --> 00:43:39,590
focus on the Eastern hemisphere. And it sounds like conspiracy theory, but I think if we can

537
00:43:39,590 --> 00:43:44,970
look back 10 years from now, that's what the world will look like. It's pretty scary. It's real

538
00:43:44,970 --> 00:43:51,550
forth turning stuff. If this happens, like if this does escalate even further, is like everything

539
00:43:51,550 --> 00:43:55,710
we've said about, you know, how you expect the macro economy to play out, is that just thrown

540
00:43:55,710 --> 00:44:03,490
out the window then is that gone or does it just accelerate the same situation it depends so it

541
00:44:03,490 --> 00:44:09,290
so america is used to attacking people on the other side of the american military is used to

542
00:44:09,290 --> 00:44:12,790
attacking people on the other side of the world and not worrying about the homeland

543
00:44:12,790 --> 00:44:19,590
i think if something happens where we actually are attacked here in the the 48 states the

544
00:44:19,590 --> 00:44:24,830
continental u.s that would be a whole different story and one that nobody is really expecting and

545
00:44:24,830 --> 00:44:31,710
I'm kind of expecting that in the next five years, some sort of Pearl Harbor type event, but actually here on the continental United States.

546
00:44:31,830 --> 00:44:33,070
But we'll see. That's just a guess.

547
00:44:34,430 --> 00:44:37,010
That would definitely unify Americans in the war.

548
00:44:37,110 --> 00:44:44,610
And instead of fighting each other and having this little civil war that seems to be coming up a little bit right now and is very disturbing,

549
00:44:44,610 --> 00:44:47,470
and we're seeing civil wars kind of all around the world right now,

550
00:44:48,210 --> 00:44:53,690
that would be a way sort of like 9-11 or sort of like Pearl Harbor that would unify Americans to look outward.

551
00:44:54,830 --> 00:45:00,310
if there's a massive war and if there's a lot of damage in the U.S., yeah, like everything just goes

552
00:45:00,310 --> 00:45:04,290
out the window. But if we can manage to keep it contained where it's like, okay, that's all

553
00:45:04,290 --> 00:45:10,350
happening over there in the Persian Gulf primarily, and it's now Europe fighting over the Strait of

554
00:45:10,350 --> 00:45:15,010
Hormuz and maintaining control over it, and the U.S. can pull back and get out of the bases there

555
00:45:15,010 --> 00:45:19,790
and start focusing on the Western Hemisphere and get out of Taiwan and pull back and start focusing

556
00:45:19,790 --> 00:45:24,350
on the Western Hemisphere, then we could kind of get out of this without too much damage and the

557
00:45:24,350 --> 00:45:30,490
markets themselves might actually do okay. Like, and in fact, the end of world, excuse me, the end

558
00:45:30,490 --> 00:45:36,170
of the depression was basically once for us here in the US, World War II got underway in 1941.

559
00:45:36,170 --> 00:45:41,830
That's basically when the stock market bottomed in gold terms. And then US manufacturing and

560
00:45:41,830 --> 00:45:45,810
production started to really pick up the economy, really started to pick up the government was just,

561
00:45:45,810 --> 00:45:50,630
you know, pouring tons and tons and tons of money into the economy. And that was very healthy from

562
00:45:50,630 --> 00:45:54,810
an economic perspective. And so I think we're going to have something similar this time around

563
00:45:54,810 --> 00:46:00,010
as well. It feels kind of wrong to ask about markets in this situation because it is such

564
00:46:00,010 --> 00:46:07,430
like a bleak situation. But what do you think happens to Bitcoin? Like, is Bitcoin built for

565
00:46:07,430 --> 00:46:11,370
this essentially? Like we have the fragmenting of the world, multipolar world, like a money that

566
00:46:11,370 --> 00:46:16,410
doesn't require trust seems like it should do very well in that situation. So those of us who

567
00:46:16,410 --> 00:46:22,210
understand Bitcoin would say it's basically built for this, right? I mean, I think, and this goes

568
00:46:22,210 --> 00:46:25,910
back to what we talked about, whatever, three months and nine months ago, and the last few

569
00:46:25,910 --> 00:46:30,270
times we've talked, basically, we're in that sector where stocks and financialized assets

570
00:46:30,270 --> 00:46:35,250
have rolled over relative to gold. And now you want to own sound money and you want to own hard

571
00:46:35,250 --> 00:46:39,810
assets. For those of us who get Bitcoin, it's the hardest money, it's the soundest money.

572
00:46:40,270 --> 00:46:44,430
And so it should technically do really well. But a couple of things that give me pauses,

573
00:46:44,430 --> 00:46:47,110
One is Bitcoin has only existed since 2009.

574
00:46:47,270 --> 00:46:48,170
So we have no idea.

575
00:46:48,470 --> 00:46:51,870
You know, I would have loved to have seen, well, how did it do in the 1970s?

576
00:46:51,930 --> 00:46:53,210
So that would have told me a lot.

577
00:46:53,290 --> 00:46:54,590
But obviously, we can't say that.

578
00:46:55,590 --> 00:47:00,490
Two, Wall Street is very heavily invested now in Bitcoin.

579
00:47:00,690 --> 00:47:03,810
And as you've probably seen, and maybe your other guests have talked about this, it's

580
00:47:03,810 --> 00:47:05,830
basically tracking software stocks right now.

581
00:47:05,930 --> 00:47:08,650
So most people think of Bitcoin like a software stock.

582
00:47:09,370 --> 00:47:11,990
That's very frustrating for me, you know, as a Bitcoiner.

583
00:47:12,210 --> 00:47:13,970
Like, come on, you guys, like, figure it out.

584
00:47:13,970 --> 00:47:15,910
Like it's better than gold.

585
00:47:16,050 --> 00:47:17,090
And it's not just digital gold.

586
00:47:17,170 --> 00:47:18,630
It's so much better than gold.

587
00:47:19,050 --> 00:47:23,610
Gold was the best money for it during, you know, thousands of years during the analog age.

588
00:47:23,710 --> 00:47:27,090
But Bitcoin is clearly the best form of money for the world during the digital age.

589
00:47:27,690 --> 00:47:32,850
So if I had to bet, I would say it's probably going to do pretty well in this stage.

590
00:47:32,850 --> 00:47:43,930
So if we do get financial repression, if we get this massive liquidity blob and the government's just pouring tons and tons of money into the manufacturing sector and the manufacturing base of the U.S.,

591
00:47:43,930 --> 00:47:47,730
that should be bullish in general for the price of Bitcoin.

592
00:47:47,850 --> 00:47:48,930
But honestly, we don't know.

593
00:47:49,090 --> 00:47:50,890
We'll just have to wait and see.

594
00:47:51,550 --> 00:47:52,530
Wait and see mode.

595
00:47:53,610 --> 00:47:55,490
So at the very start of the show,

596
00:47:55,590 --> 00:47:57,710
I asked a question that I don't think you actually answered

597
00:47:57,710 --> 00:48:01,670
about Bitcoin being used in the strait at the moment.

598
00:48:02,030 --> 00:48:04,050
So the Iranian government came out and said,

599
00:48:04,110 --> 00:48:07,690
I think you can pay in Chinese yuan stable coins or Bitcoin

600
00:48:07,690 --> 00:48:09,570
to actually go through the strait.

601
00:48:10,350 --> 00:48:12,890
That feels like a really big moment to me.

602
00:48:12,890 --> 00:48:15,530
But again, like there's always recency bias in this stuff.

603
00:48:15,710 --> 00:48:19,530
And I don't know if people are actually using Bitcoin yet or if they are just using the Chinese one.

604
00:48:19,950 --> 00:48:22,170
But do you see that as a pivotal change?

605
00:48:22,930 --> 00:48:29,170
I think it's less of a big deal for Bitcoin and more of a big deal for the end of the petrodollar system.

606
00:48:29,590 --> 00:48:31,890
And that's like what all of this is revolving around.

607
00:48:32,090 --> 00:48:35,750
So basically, those two are kind of intrinsically linked, though, like if they are.

608
00:48:35,970 --> 00:48:39,950
Yes. So, yes. And it means that we're moving to a more multipolar world.

609
00:48:39,950 --> 00:48:51,570
And the fact that the U.S. isn't going after every country and especially isn't attacking China because of people are paying Yuan to get through the Strait of Hormuz, that means a lot as well.

610
00:48:51,730 --> 00:49:01,030
And I would have said 20 years ago, if somebody would have tried to pay Chinese Yuan for oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz, we would have probably attacked China directly back then.

611
00:49:01,670 --> 00:49:08,350
But I think now what this shows is we respect them and their military and who they are as a nation.

612
00:49:08,350 --> 00:49:17,030
I don't think, even though we talk, like even though Trump talks all the time, like we're the best, we have the strongest military, nobody's better than America, blah, blah, blah.

613
00:49:17,990 --> 00:49:21,390
I think that they do respect how far China has progressed.

614
00:49:21,510 --> 00:49:28,130
And I think they do realize that we're kind of in a bit of a pickle here and we can't just go after China and try to shut that down.

615
00:49:28,130 --> 00:49:38,150
So I think we are intentionally, I don't know if allowing is the right word, but we see this happening and we are not being aggressive because of that.

616
00:49:38,150 --> 00:49:42,830
and we are allowing oil to finally be traded in something other than a dollar. And that's a first,

617
00:49:43,310 --> 00:49:49,530
basically, since the early 70s. So that is very telling. So I think the yuan, I think it's being

618
00:49:49,530 --> 00:49:55,530
traded for gold as well, directly or indirectly. Bitcoin, you know, it'd be really stupid for

619
00:49:55,530 --> 00:50:01,450
nations, especially for like smaller nations, rogue nations to use Bitcoin, because the government

620
00:50:01,450 --> 00:50:05,310
can track it and figure out who did it, and they can hunt them down. So everybody knows that like

621
00:50:05,310 --> 00:50:09,570
it's you know it's it's it's not completely private unless they're using mixers the government

622
00:50:09,570 --> 00:50:13,850
will find out who did it and they'll be able to track them down so um there are better things to

623
00:50:13,850 --> 00:50:19,710
use than bitcoin if if they want to be sneaky about it bullish for wasabi wallet though um yes

624
00:50:19,710 --> 00:50:24,110
so a little earlier in the show you said you think we're going to go through a period of

625
00:50:24,110 --> 00:50:28,870
like let's take the war potential out because i think that kind of throws a spanner in the works

626
00:50:28,870 --> 00:50:32,230
for everything but we're going to go through this period of living under high inflation

627
00:50:32,230 --> 00:50:37,890
and i want to know what you mean by high inflation are we talking in like five percent ten percent

628
00:50:37,890 --> 00:50:43,850
where does that kind of range fall it depends what oil does predominant so so if we just have

629
00:50:43,850 --> 00:50:49,550
structural inflation and when i say that i mean if we are just bearing the costs of bringing

630
00:50:49,550 --> 00:50:55,410
manufacturing and energy production back to the u.s building data centers you know ramping up rare

631
00:50:55,410 --> 00:51:00,990
earth capabilities um that all costs money and it's money we don't have we're already heavily

632
00:51:00,990 --> 00:51:05,230
indebted we're already spending more on debt than we are on military that's already a very bad sign

633
00:51:05,230 --> 00:51:09,510
and also marks kind of the end of hegemonies too i'm sure you've talked about that with other people

634
00:51:09,510 --> 00:51:13,530
i don't know if i have talked about that that's interesting oh okay well there's some dude who

635
00:51:13,530 --> 00:51:18,210
came up with that theory back in like the 1700s who noticed that countries that are global

636
00:51:18,210 --> 00:51:25,370
hegemons once they start spending money higher amounts on their interest of their debt payments

637
00:51:25,370 --> 00:51:28,670
than they do on war on their military,

638
00:51:29,170 --> 00:51:31,730
that kind of marks the beginning of the end

639
00:51:31,730 --> 00:51:32,970
of their global hegemony.

640
00:51:33,430 --> 00:51:34,910
And you can go back all the way,

641
00:51:35,010 --> 00:51:37,030
like 1600, 1700s, all the way till today,

642
00:51:37,090 --> 00:51:38,390
that's happened over and over again.

643
00:51:38,490 --> 00:51:39,950
So it's not a good sign for the US.

644
00:51:40,030 --> 00:51:41,950
It definitely shows that we have kind of peaked

645
00:51:41,950 --> 00:51:42,950
and we're on the decline.

646
00:51:43,150 --> 00:51:43,810
I hope not.

647
00:51:44,130 --> 00:51:45,730
Just on a gut check, that seems right.

648
00:51:45,810 --> 00:51:47,030
I can totally believe that.

649
00:51:47,410 --> 00:51:48,350
Right, yeah, of course.

650
00:51:48,350 --> 00:51:49,350
If you're spending more,

651
00:51:49,430 --> 00:51:50,970
like for any individual,

652
00:51:51,090 --> 00:51:52,710
if you see them just being drowning

653
00:51:52,710 --> 00:51:53,630
in their debt payments,

654
00:51:53,730 --> 00:51:54,110
you're just like,

655
00:51:54,110 --> 00:51:55,590
that's not going to end well for that person.

656
00:51:55,930 --> 00:51:56,670
Yeah, the empire is over.

657
00:51:57,150 --> 00:51:59,150
Yep, not going to end well for the country either.

658
00:52:01,290 --> 00:52:01,650
Inflation.

659
00:52:01,850 --> 00:52:04,030
So if you have high structural inflation,

660
00:52:04,450 --> 00:52:09,390
I think of it more like kind of in the 3% to 6% sort of CPI range.

661
00:52:10,050 --> 00:52:14,970
Not crazy out of control, but not pleasant either.

662
00:52:15,490 --> 00:52:18,750
And then if you have war where you see these oil spikes,

663
00:52:18,750 --> 00:52:21,390
that can spike it up to the 8%, 9%, 10% range

664
00:52:21,390 --> 00:52:22,910
or even a little bit higher in the U.S.

665
00:52:22,910 --> 00:52:51,490
And then on top, so balancing that out, we have, we're pushing really hard for AI and robotics. Once you finally get that ubiquitous and especially robotics automation throughout your country, that's highly deflationary. And it's super interesting to watch from my perspective, because I like tech and I follow this stuff pretty closely. China is having severe deflationary problems right now, which is really interesting. And it's because they are so automated, right? And one of the reasons is because they're so incredibly automated right now.

666
00:52:51,490 --> 00:52:57,430
they basically can't print money fast enough to keep up with the deflationary effects of how well

667
00:52:57,430 --> 00:53:02,030
they're producing things. So they're just spitting out goods and services, you know, way faster than

668
00:53:02,030 --> 00:53:07,550
the economy can even bear it. And since the U.S. has basically shut them off, like we don't buy

669
00:53:07,550 --> 00:53:12,330
their products so much anymore because of policies of the Trump administration, they don't have that

670
00:53:12,330 --> 00:53:16,530
many people to sell them to. So it worsens the deflation. So it's very interesting. So I think

671
00:53:16,530 --> 00:53:20,950
that's coming for the U.S. and it's coming for the West. But we're so far behind China from an

672
00:53:20,950 --> 00:53:26,270
automation perspective, that might be kind of like in the three to five to 10 year time period

673
00:53:26,270 --> 00:53:30,130
where we start seeing those deflationary effects. But in the short term, I think we get that

674
00:53:30,130 --> 00:53:36,690
structural inflation in the three, four or five, 6% range. See, that seems like the almost the most

675
00:53:36,690 --> 00:53:41,870
dangerous range to me because it's like three to 6% is damaging for just the people of a country,

676
00:53:41,870 --> 00:53:46,530
but it's not really high enough to cause people to actually revolt against something.

677
00:53:46,530 --> 00:53:53,390
right it it's uh oh man it's going to be interesting i i kind of want to talk about

678
00:53:53,390 --> 00:53:58,090
the fed although it seems so trivial compared to talking about world war three but we've we spoke

679
00:53:58,090 --> 00:54:02,930
about this last time and obviously wash is meant to be coming in in a month's time i know there's

680
00:54:02,930 --> 00:54:07,650
been delays and whether he'll actually be in by then is kind of up in the air right now but so

681
00:54:07,650 --> 00:54:11,770
last time we spoke we said he's been dealt a really tough hand and that hand has only become

682
00:54:11,770 --> 00:54:17,250
much tougher since then because he's battling this higher inflation with oil prices going up

683
00:54:17,250 --> 00:54:24,890
inflation is likely going to continue to rise um is he still going to come in cut rates and be

684
00:54:24,890 --> 00:54:33,890
accommodative to the things that trump wants he's he is in a tough spot i i don't think the the

685
00:54:33,890 --> 00:54:41,750
central bank is relevant for now i think the treasury through besant has basically neutered

686
00:54:41,750 --> 00:54:45,910
the Fed and they don't rule the markets like they used to.

687
00:54:46,170 --> 00:54:50,370
I think they're actually going to allow this runoff to like, you know, they've been letting

688
00:54:50,370 --> 00:54:52,850
they were allowing the runoff and now they've been buying a little bit.

689
00:54:52,910 --> 00:54:55,070
So there's really, really slow kind of QE.

690
00:54:55,410 --> 00:55:00,770
I think that's probably the baseline situation that we're going to continue seeing.

691
00:55:00,870 --> 00:55:05,330
And I don't think it really matters if they raise or lower or keep steady the federal

692
00:55:05,330 --> 00:55:06,450
funds rate right now.

693
00:55:06,450 --> 00:55:19,310
I don't think they'll really matter until we need financial repression, which I don't see happening unless the war escalates out of control in the next couple of months.

694
00:55:19,430 --> 00:55:25,210
So probably not until Q4, somewhere in that range, or 2027, something like that.

695
00:55:26,070 --> 00:55:32,550
So I know he's been given a rough hand, but I almost feel like he's a lame duck central banker for now.

696
00:55:32,550 --> 00:55:59,690
I think they'll come back into play once the government's like, look, we're in a full on war with whoever, maybe China, maybe whoever. We have to borrow so much money and we're going to put hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars into military things. And I know people aren't willing to buy it. So we need the central bank, the Fed to step in and do financial repression, basically to buy all of the bonds that we want to issue so we can borrow all this money.

697
00:56:00,410 --> 00:56:01,770
That's how I view the Fed right now.

698
00:56:01,830 --> 00:56:05,370
I don't really care what they do, and I don't think it's really relevant what they do in the near term.

699
00:56:06,890 --> 00:56:10,570
You don't think it's relevant because you don't think actually they can do anything that's impactful enough?

700
00:56:11,170 --> 00:56:11,490
Correct.

701
00:56:12,530 --> 00:56:15,270
Not until they do the big print.

702
00:56:15,610 --> 00:56:19,970
Basically, not until the borrowing is so massive that no one else is left to buy it.

703
00:56:20,290 --> 00:56:25,830
So they have to step in and monetize all of that debt through financial repression.

704
00:56:26,610 --> 00:56:29,410
But I don't through yield curve control, basically.

705
00:56:29,690 --> 00:56:32,970
And I don't see that happening anytime super soon.

706
00:56:34,070 --> 00:56:35,890
So with the like mini QE they're doing

707
00:56:35,890 --> 00:56:37,610
with the reserve management operation,

708
00:56:38,130 --> 00:56:41,590
which I think is that about 25 billion a month?

709
00:56:41,710 --> 00:56:42,150
Is that right?

710
00:56:42,550 --> 00:56:44,750
I think it was 40 and I think they just lowered it to 25.

711
00:56:45,590 --> 00:56:47,370
Okay, so you don't see that escalating

712
00:56:47,370 --> 00:56:49,250
and becoming a larger amount of money

713
00:56:49,250 --> 00:56:51,370
throughout the next 12 months or so.

714
00:56:51,850 --> 00:56:54,230
No, and for now to their credit,

715
00:56:54,230 --> 00:56:56,970
people are still, like the boomers are still eating up

716
00:56:56,970 --> 00:56:58,470
these short-term high yields.

717
00:56:58,470 --> 00:57:03,830
So a one to three month T-bill is still yielding like 3.7%.

718
00:57:03,830 --> 00:57:05,090
Boomers love that.

719
00:57:05,210 --> 00:57:06,450
It's money market rates are high.

720
00:57:06,610 --> 00:57:08,970
They're like, sure, just keep dishing these T-bills out.

721
00:57:09,530 --> 00:57:13,470
So until the market starts to say, you know what, we don't want your dollars anymore,

722
00:57:13,470 --> 00:57:16,270
then we'll see rates start to go higher at that point.

723
00:57:17,010 --> 00:57:18,910
Then that's when it will be a problem.

724
00:57:19,030 --> 00:57:22,170
So that's why I think Besant, you see him, he's like pushing really hard.

725
00:57:22,210 --> 00:57:23,790
He almost sounds kind of like stressed out.

726
00:57:23,830 --> 00:57:26,570
Like you guys have to push through the Clarity Act.

727
00:57:26,610 --> 00:57:27,750
You have to make stable coin.

728
00:57:27,750 --> 00:57:30,750
And, you know, you have to get this stuff figured out because we're going to dump just,

729
00:57:30,750 --> 00:57:35,270
you know, billions and billions of dollars worth of T-bills on people through these stable coins.

730
00:57:35,570 --> 00:57:38,910
So he's really hoping that they get this done and they get it done quickly,

731
00:57:38,910 --> 00:57:41,670
because I think that's the next step for where this issuance goes.

732
00:57:42,730 --> 00:57:47,090
Okay. So this escalating, like if the war escalates, there's the potential for

733
00:57:47,090 --> 00:57:50,570
financial oppression, yield curve control, that kind of thing. On the flip side,

734
00:57:50,670 --> 00:57:55,650
if this ceasefire is real, everything starts dying down, what happens then?

735
00:57:56,390 --> 00:57:58,710
Then I think we just kind of go back to normal for a little bit.

736
00:57:58,910 --> 00:58:02,910
I think oil will go back down to maybe the $60 or $70 a barrel range.

737
00:58:03,630 --> 00:58:09,910
CPI will come back down and we'll say, well, that was something, you know, and inflation won't be that big of a deal.

738
00:58:11,110 --> 00:58:12,670
The economy could run hot again.

739
00:58:12,670 --> 00:58:17,110
I could see them, you know, possibly trying to do that to run the economy hot into the midterm elections.

740
00:58:17,330 --> 00:58:18,490
It's possible we'll see that.

741
00:58:20,350 --> 00:58:23,350
So, yeah, but I don't think it's the end of it.

742
00:58:23,390 --> 00:58:24,170
I think that's my thing.

743
00:58:24,170 --> 00:58:28,190
This is just there's much more to come in this fourth turning.

744
00:58:28,590 --> 00:58:41,510
And I think by the end of it, the days of imperial America as the global hegemon will be drawing to a close or will be absolutely like people will know that it's done at that point.

745
00:58:41,730 --> 00:58:43,910
And I think it will be a much more multipolar world.

746
00:58:43,970 --> 00:58:49,370
And I think nations will be able to buy oil with basically any of the major currencies, including the dollar.

747
00:58:49,450 --> 00:58:50,630
By the dollar is not going to go away.

748
00:58:50,730 --> 00:58:52,630
It just won't be nearly as powerful.

749
00:58:53,250 --> 00:58:54,490
Gold will play a larger role.

750
00:58:54,590 --> 00:58:56,130
I think Bitcoin will play a larger role.

751
00:58:56,270 --> 00:58:58,010
The yuan will definitely play a larger role.

752
00:58:59,590 --> 00:59:01,830
And I just think there's more to come, unfortunately.

753
00:59:02,090 --> 00:59:05,050
Like I hate, I just want to make this clear, by the way, because I think I can sound kind

754
00:59:05,050 --> 00:59:06,270
of callous when I talk about this stuff.

755
00:59:06,330 --> 00:59:07,210
Like I hate war.

756
00:59:07,210 --> 00:59:11,330
I hate the thought of people dying for stupid government plans, right?

757
00:59:11,390 --> 00:59:16,010
Like people have these whims and they want to do stuff and actual young men and women

758
00:59:16,010 --> 00:59:16,830
die because of that.

759
00:59:16,950 --> 00:59:17,450
I hate that.

760
00:59:17,530 --> 00:59:19,870
It's just a waste of human life, not to mention.

761
00:59:20,010 --> 00:59:22,510
And then from a financial standpoint, it's just a total waste of capital.

762
00:59:22,630 --> 00:59:24,310
So you're just destroying energy plants.

763
00:59:24,370 --> 00:59:29,150
You're destroying manufacturing and data centers and desalination plants, like all of these

764
00:59:29,150 --> 00:59:32,990
kind of things that like help people just to live regular, normal, good lives.

765
00:59:33,410 --> 00:59:35,350
And war just ruined all of that.

766
00:59:35,430 --> 00:59:36,430
And so that's terrible.

767
00:59:36,430 --> 00:59:37,330
And I hate all of it.

768
00:59:37,350 --> 00:59:39,750
I just kind of want to caveat everything I'm saying with that.

769
00:59:40,650 --> 00:59:43,830
I think people know you well enough, Jeff, to know that you're not supportive of this

770
00:59:43,830 --> 00:59:44,050
stuff.

771
00:59:44,490 --> 00:59:56,295
The financial asymmetry in this war is pretty interesting though in that like the US are dropping billions and billions hundreds of billions of dollars on Iran and they kind of fighting back with cheap drones

772
00:59:56,795 --> 01:00:02,175
That must like change the way that any war in the future is going to be viewed. Like, do you think

773
01:00:02,175 --> 01:00:08,655
there is, like, what I don't understand fully in this situation is what World War III looks like,

774
01:00:08,735 --> 01:00:13,115
because I know you're saying there may be troops on the ground at some point. It's not going to be

775
01:00:13,115 --> 01:00:17,475
hundreds of thousands of troops, I wouldn't imagine. Or is that the kind of future that you see?

776
01:00:18,235 --> 01:00:22,575
No, I don't. I don't see that, at least not from the US and not from the Western nations,

777
01:00:22,575 --> 01:00:27,455
probably. I do think it's going to be a more technological war and a more autonomous war.

778
01:00:27,675 --> 01:00:33,315
And that's good and bad. It can mean less lives, but it's also hard to predict, I think, as well.

779
01:00:33,795 --> 01:00:39,635
I always tell people like the US is by far the strongest and best military to if we have to

780
01:00:39,635 --> 01:00:44,275
refight World War II. We would just dominate and crush World War II. The problem is, is we're not

781
01:00:44,275 --> 01:00:47,795
going into World War II. We're going into the next war. So you got to like fight the next war.

782
01:00:48,635 --> 01:00:53,715
So yeah, to your point, right, they're using these Shaheed drones that cost about $30,000 a pop. And

783
01:00:53,715 --> 01:00:58,875
we're dropping multimillion dollar missiles to intercept and destroy them. You can't do that for

784
01:00:58,875 --> 01:01:04,295
too long before you basically just run out of money. So in a war of attrition, the US definitely

785
01:01:04,295 --> 01:01:08,835
loses. We can print all the treasuries and dollars we want, but at some point we're going to run out

786
01:01:08,835 --> 01:01:14,475
of the supplies and the capacity to make more of these really high-tech weapons. So a couple things

787
01:01:14,475 --> 01:01:23,035
are, I do know that lots of these sort of our military companies, both like the legacy defense

788
01:01:23,035 --> 01:01:27,515
or defense or offense contractors, whatever you want to call them, and the upstart ones are

789
01:01:27,515 --> 01:01:34,975
developing anti-drone technology as well as our own drone technology for pretty cheap. So, you know,

790
01:01:34,975 --> 01:01:42,995
Eric Schmidt's company, they recently came out and they produced these sort of basically reverse Shaheed drones that can do the same thing and we can send them back at them.

791
01:01:43,515 --> 01:01:52,155
We also have like these microwave tools where if a swarm of drones is coming at, say, a ship or maybe an island called Carg Island or something,

792
01:01:52,615 --> 01:01:57,875
instead of trying to shoot them down one by one, you can blast them with microwave and it actually can.

793
01:01:58,815 --> 01:02:03,775
It's sort of like an EMP and it just causes them to lose their power and their abilities.

794
01:02:03,775 --> 01:02:27,795
And so there are ways to fight this. And we're learning quickly, sort of, I think a lot of nations, like on both sides, whether you're the Western allies or the crinks, I call them. So China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, I think that's better than BRICS and more appropriate. So the crinks. So they both are learning a lot from the Russia-Ukraine war. And it's kind of turned into a drone against drone war in many ways.

795
01:02:27,795 --> 01:02:33,015
and so when you're in a war and it your life depends on it technology tends to move pretty

796
01:02:33,015 --> 01:02:37,695
quickly and it adapts very quickly and so i think the whole world is watching that and has learned a

797
01:02:37,695 --> 01:02:42,975
lot so right now we're sort of sitting ducks you don't want to be a huge you know multi-billion

798
01:02:42,975 --> 01:02:48,355
dollar ship and have a fleet of little drones coming at you that can sink you or be a underwater

799
01:02:48,355 --> 01:02:54,375
mine um but we have that we're developing quickly the technology to to fight and counter that

800
01:02:54,375 --> 01:03:00,195
yeah it's interesting as well that the another big shift in this is that it's gone from the u.s

801
01:03:00,195 --> 01:03:05,595
being the the country where that exports the most guns they're like if you're going to war you're

802
01:03:05,595 --> 01:03:08,615
probably going to be buying guns from the u.s to now if you're going to war you're probably going

803
01:03:08,615 --> 01:03:14,555
to be buying drones from china like that's another huge power shift oh man it's a mess this is quite

804
01:03:14,555 --> 01:03:23,055
bleak yeah yes and i'm not really a bleak person sorry go ahead no exactly you're a very positive

805
01:03:23,055 --> 01:03:31,315
person and it sounds like um you don't really see a world where some kind of war like conflicts

806
01:03:31,315 --> 01:03:37,695
little hot spots around the world doesn't escalate yeah and you know it it's probably because i i just

807
01:03:37,695 --> 01:03:43,295
believe in the whole fourth turning cyclical theory of history and i just think we're at that

808
01:03:43,295 --> 01:03:48,335
point right now where and i've been telling my friends and family this for a couple years like

809
01:03:48,335 --> 01:03:53,635
it's going to get worse before it gets better. And these wars are going to escalate. And we're,

810
01:03:53,735 --> 01:03:57,035
we're going to, and even here in the U S I'm like, you watch, like, we're going to start

811
01:03:57,035 --> 01:04:00,595
escalating towards a civil war. And people like, like three or four years ago, they're like,

812
01:04:00,595 --> 01:04:05,815
you're crazy. There's no way we'll get into a civil war. And now, and recent polls, more than

813
01:04:05,815 --> 01:04:10,115
half of Americans think we're headed towards a civil war. And that's just not in the U S it's,

814
01:04:10,235 --> 01:04:14,735
it's all around the world. And so it's like things that were unthinkable even five years ago are now

815
01:04:14,735 --> 01:04:20,715
kind of commonplace. And, and, and one of, and then what's on top of this,

816
01:04:20,735 --> 01:04:21,915
and we haven't even talked about all this.

817
01:04:22,075 --> 01:04:26,235
So the whole jobless recovery and the whole AI taking over and basically

818
01:04:26,235 --> 01:04:29,655
displacing white collar workers and all of the issues that that's causing and

819
01:04:29,655 --> 01:04:33,295
the way that, you know, gutting the, the blue collar economy,

820
01:04:33,395 --> 01:04:35,795
the manufacturing economy since about the year 2000,

821
01:04:35,795 --> 01:04:38,675
because we put it all overseas and gave it all to China and the,

822
01:04:38,735 --> 01:04:43,395
and the Asian nations that just decimated the middle class in the U S and the

823
01:04:43,395 --> 01:04:48,955
working class and the blue collar class. That's now happening to the white collar class. And it's

824
01:04:48,955 --> 01:04:53,355
just starting. And people are starting to get fearful about that and be like, what do we do?

825
01:04:53,355 --> 01:04:59,055
And the most concerning part of that, and I went back, I've literally been reading economic

826
01:04:59,055 --> 01:05:05,295
history and geopolitical history for the last 3,000 years. And whether you're talking about

827
01:05:05,295 --> 01:05:11,795
Ray Dalio's big debt crises or Neil Howe's fourth turning, they're all the same. It's always at this

828
01:05:11,795 --> 01:05:19,475
point where basically income inequality is so wide that the majority at the bottom here gets so

829
01:05:19,475 --> 01:05:26,275
angry and upset and they get desperate. So things like alcohol and drug abuse start spiking,

830
01:05:26,535 --> 01:05:32,435
suicide and homicide start spiking, and then people start doing crazy things because they're

831
01:05:32,435 --> 01:05:36,675
like, something has to change. And you always get to this point in history where something has to

832
01:05:36,675 --> 01:05:42,635
change. And that's just where we are right now. And so like, you have to kind of be blind to not

833
01:05:42,635 --> 01:05:47,775
see that, that we're at that point right now. And it doesn't just end, it almost never ends

834
01:05:47,775 --> 01:05:52,995
peacefully. I think there was one episode, like in Athens, maybe in like, I'm going to get these

835
01:05:52,995 --> 01:05:58,655
dates wrong, but 600 BC or something where the ruling class, the plutocrats, the rich and wealthy

836
01:05:58,655 --> 01:06:03,615
ruling class thought, you know what, this is looking pretty ugly. Maybe we should do things

837
01:06:03,615 --> 01:06:10,995
Like basically, and people, whenever I bring up ideas, by the way, I get called a communist and I get called like a libertard and all these different things.

838
01:06:11,075 --> 01:06:14,235
I'm like, look, I'm like the staunchest free market capitalist out there.

839
01:06:14,435 --> 01:06:25,015
But during times like this, when people are desperate, you have to do something to give relief to people who are desperate or they will do something to you to change the system and overthrow the system.

840
01:06:25,135 --> 01:06:27,515
And so I just think we're very close to that point right now.

841
01:06:27,515 --> 01:06:33,975
And unfortunately, going back to this whole wartime, in World War II, it was awesome because we got all of the Americans behind.

842
01:06:34,255 --> 01:06:36,675
And this happened all around the world, in Europe as well.

843
01:06:38,475 --> 01:06:45,295
People all banded together and created this robust manufacturing sector and industry to support the war efforts.

844
01:06:46,075 --> 01:06:51,855
This time around, most of the growth in manufacturing and energy and data centers and all these, it's jobless.

845
01:06:52,035 --> 01:06:54,555
Humans aren't doing the majority of the work.

846
01:06:54,975 --> 01:06:59,435
So more and more humans are being job displaced and are starting to get more and more desperate

847
01:06:59,435 --> 01:07:01,635
and can't pay their bills and are getting more in debt.

848
01:07:01,935 --> 01:07:03,055
And that's a huge problem.

849
01:07:03,395 --> 01:07:07,015
And so what is the best place if you can't find work, if you've been like, you know,

850
01:07:07,075 --> 01:07:10,795
on Indeed all day looking for a job or, you know, whatever, pick your thing.

851
01:07:10,835 --> 01:07:13,255
And you've been working just trying to support yourself and your family.

852
01:07:14,295 --> 01:07:16,895
Suddenly the military starts looking like a pretty good option.

853
01:07:16,895 --> 01:07:20,975
What if you're 22 and you're a college grad and you have debt that you can't pay and you

854
01:07:20,975 --> 01:07:24,055
don't have a job and you're living in your parents' basement or who knows what you're

855
01:07:24,055 --> 01:07:24,255
doing?

856
01:07:24,555 --> 01:07:49,095
And the military comes in and says, we'll take your debt and we'll forgive it. We'll give you a stipend and you'll have a lifetime annuity and free health care forever for you and your family if you join the military. That's a pretty tempting offer. And then if you pair that with a 9-11 or Pearl Harbor type event, suddenly you unite America and suddenly it gets patriotic and exciting to join the war and go get the bad guys.

857
01:07:49,095 --> 01:07:52,475
and then life is suddenly good from a military perspective.

858
01:07:52,675 --> 01:07:54,795
And so I actually think all of that is coming

859
01:07:54,795 --> 01:07:57,215
and I think it's coming probably in the next couple of years,

860
01:07:57,495 --> 01:07:59,675
not just in the US, but throughout most of the world.

861
01:08:00,735 --> 01:08:01,055
Terrifying.

862
01:08:02,695 --> 01:08:03,555
I'm with you though.

863
01:08:03,695 --> 01:08:05,595
I think something we'll have to give here.

864
01:08:05,975 --> 01:08:08,015
And I've been called a commie for this take as well

865
01:08:08,015 --> 01:08:11,555
because when you see what happened to blue collar America

866
01:08:11,555 --> 01:08:13,375
when all the work went to China,

867
01:08:13,955 --> 01:08:15,995
like huge amounts of drug abuse, suicide,

868
01:08:16,415 --> 01:08:18,795
like it was just an economy of despair at that point.

869
01:08:18,795 --> 01:08:23,495
And I do think that's coming to white collar everywhere, like not just America.

870
01:08:23,715 --> 01:08:35,255
But if that hits the coast and lawyers can't find jobs, accountants can't find jobs, like software engineers, especially lower level, because I think AI is going to make people extremely productive, but just fewer people will be more productive.

871
01:08:36,135 --> 01:08:37,135
What happens?

872
01:08:37,335 --> 01:08:43,095
And I always say, like, I can't see a way out apart from some kind of UBI type scheme.

873
01:08:43,295 --> 01:08:46,735
And people have raged at me in the comments about how UBI is terrible.

874
01:08:46,735 --> 01:08:50,535
And I agree, but I just don't know what other alternative there is.

875
01:08:51,315 --> 01:08:55,315
Right. And that's actually a tangent I was going to talk about, but I didn't. So I'm glad you brought it back to that.

876
01:08:56,495 --> 01:09:13,215
So I'm a staunch free market capitalist, right? And I'm also not a Democrat or a Republican. I'm like a fierce independent. I never vote for, you know, I rarely even vote. So I'm not either of those. So if you're going to label me one of these, that's fine. But that's not, you know, I'm not talking to you, Danny, but the people in the audience.

877
01:09:13,215 --> 01:09:19,715
but so so here's what i talk to people about free market capitalism is the best human system

878
01:09:19,715 --> 01:09:26,235
but what if the people you're competing with is an ai who's literally 10 000 times smarter

879
01:09:26,235 --> 01:09:31,435
and faster than you and better in every way so say as a doctor i used to be a radiologist

880
01:09:31,435 --> 01:09:39,255
say ai is able to do radiology 10 000 times better faster you know and and less expensive

881
01:09:39,255 --> 01:09:44,635
then I can do it. As a radiologist, I'm not going to have a job. Who would pay for that? Like if you

882
01:09:44,635 --> 01:09:48,555
have to pay a radiologist, whatever, several hundred thousands of dollars to do the work,

883
01:09:48,635 --> 01:09:55,075
or you could get a plugin from, you know, Claude and have AI do it for your whole hospital system

884
01:09:55,075 --> 01:09:59,175
for whatever they pay for a subscription, which isn't very much. You're going to choose that

885
01:09:59,175 --> 01:10:03,575
eventually, that option, even though you have the Luddites and the new Neo-Luddites who are very

886
01:10:03,575 --> 01:10:08,175
against all of this technology coming, like you can't stop a technology or an idea whose time has

887
01:10:08,175 --> 01:10:14,995
come. So they'll resist it, but it's going to win eventually. That's my take. I think to your point

888
01:10:14,995 --> 01:10:20,195
that you have to do something. If I were the plutocrat class right now, if I were Elon and

889
01:10:20,195 --> 01:10:25,895
Bill Gates and, you know, and all the politicians, I would be having a meeting right now today.

890
01:10:26,335 --> 01:10:32,155
What are we going to do to help the working class, especially these 20 somethings who just graduated

891
01:10:32,155 --> 01:10:36,495
and have all this debt and they can't afford a house and they have no job and they're getting

892
01:10:36,495 --> 01:10:41,155
angrier and angrier, and they're starting to think it's cool to go kill CEOs and do crazy things like

893
01:10:41,155 --> 01:10:46,075
that. Like, you have to do something and you have to do something soon. And I know that that sounds

894
01:10:46,075 --> 01:10:52,015
communist. But when you're when you're competing against AI and robots, I'm sorry, but you're not

895
01:10:52,015 --> 01:10:56,755
going to win. I don't care how smart you are as a human or how talented you are. You can't compete

896
01:10:56,755 --> 01:11:02,095
with AI. And so you don't want to have a system, a capitalistic system that's built on competing

897
01:11:02,095 --> 01:11:06,655
with AI, that means you're always going to take second or you're always going to lose.

898
01:11:07,275 --> 01:11:12,015
And so you're going to be the creative destruction while AI gets all the gains. So I think what makes

899
01:11:12,015 --> 01:11:17,435
the most sense in trying to be so positive spin, these AI companies are just killing it. Like

900
01:11:17,435 --> 01:11:23,435
Anthropic and OpenAI are killing it. They're growing faster in revenues, faster than any

901
01:11:23,435 --> 01:11:28,035
company that's ever existed. It's unbelievable. I think the run rate on Anthropic is going to

902
01:11:28,035 --> 01:11:34,835
approach $100 billion in 2026. They think it could get to a trillion dollars of revenue run rate

903
01:11:34,835 --> 01:11:41,035
in 2027. Unbelievable amounts of money. Insane. And so what makes sense to me is you can call it

904
01:11:41,035 --> 01:11:45,615
a government tax on these companies. You can call it, some people have said like a technology

905
01:11:45,615 --> 01:11:51,355
dividend or something to put a positive spin on it. But at some point, you got to take all of that

906
01:11:51,355 --> 01:11:57,195
money that's getting centered to AI and going to AI or these companies that are using AI and firing

907
01:11:57,195 --> 01:12:00,495
all of their employees and now their operating margins are through the roof because they don't

908
01:12:00,495 --> 01:12:05,815
have to pay people to do what they used to pay people for. You have to do something as a government

909
01:12:05,815 --> 01:12:11,975
to get money to the people. And so there's people who have ideas of universal basic services,

910
01:12:12,295 --> 01:12:18,655
food, water, electricity, compute, and then shelter. You could do something like that.

911
01:12:18,795 --> 01:12:22,555
Like right now in America, you can walk in any street, you can find public drinking fountains

912
01:12:22,555 --> 01:12:24,335
with safe water to drink for the most part,

913
01:12:24,915 --> 01:12:25,895
that's a public utility.

914
01:12:26,335 --> 01:12:28,415
You have electricity, the lights are on, things like that.

915
01:12:28,695 --> 01:12:30,175
And so you could expand all that.

916
01:12:30,235 --> 01:12:31,315
That's one way to do it.

917
01:12:31,555 --> 01:12:33,395
Or you can just give everybody money.

918
01:12:33,635 --> 01:12:35,575
That's the easiest and quickest solution.

919
01:12:36,055 --> 01:12:38,975
And normally I would be super opposed to all of that

920
01:12:38,975 --> 01:12:40,595
with any other human system.

921
01:12:40,875 --> 01:12:43,315
But because the world is changing so quickly,

922
01:12:43,795 --> 01:12:46,275
I think that's the only option right now

923
01:12:46,275 --> 01:12:48,375
because we could have this abundant world

924
01:12:48,375 --> 01:12:49,435
on the other side of this.

925
01:12:49,495 --> 01:12:50,615
And I think we probably will

926
01:12:50,615 --> 01:12:52,035
if we could fast forward 10 years.

927
01:12:52,555 --> 01:12:56,855
But in the meantime, getting there, you actually have to survive for 10 years and you can't

928
01:12:56,855 --> 01:13:01,075
survive if you can't pay for food and you can't keep your lights on in your house and

929
01:13:01,075 --> 01:13:02,095
you can't support your family.

930
01:13:02,255 --> 01:13:06,315
So if I were government officials or the plutocrats, I would be thinking right now today

931
01:13:06,315 --> 01:13:10,595
of a solution for the coming months and quarters or things are going to get really ugly.

932
01:13:11,255 --> 01:13:12,975
Yeah, and I totally agree with that.

933
01:13:13,035 --> 01:13:14,095
And it's not that I support it.

934
01:13:14,255 --> 01:13:18,135
It's that because I'll be one of the people that has to essentially pay for that through

935
01:13:18,135 --> 01:13:19,355
either inflation or tax.

936
01:13:19,555 --> 01:13:22,215
But it's more that I just don't see another way out.

937
01:13:22,215 --> 01:13:25,375
And I don't think these tech CEOs will be doing this out of the goodness of their heart.

938
01:13:25,475 --> 01:13:29,815
They'll be doing it because they know if they don't, then their data centers are going to

939
01:13:29,815 --> 01:13:30,415
get bombed.

940
01:13:30,495 --> 01:13:32,815
And like, there'll be a real revolution against it.

941
01:13:32,895 --> 01:13:34,355
Like, there's no other way around.

942
01:13:34,475 --> 01:13:38,655
In my opinion, I may be being a doomer there, but I just don't see another way out of this.

943
01:13:39,415 --> 01:13:39,435
Right.

944
01:13:39,515 --> 01:13:40,415
And it's already starting.

945
01:13:40,515 --> 01:13:42,095
I'm sure you read the news with Sam Altman.

946
01:13:42,275 --> 01:13:46,595
Like, somebody threw a Molotov cocktail at his house and somebody shot it up.

947
01:13:46,735 --> 01:13:51,675
And some politician in, I can't remember, Ohio or something, his house got shot up because

948
01:13:51,675 --> 01:13:56,355
he was pro data center. And so like, I call them the neo-Luddites. Like they're the people who are

949
01:13:56,355 --> 01:14:00,715
going to fight this, but, but this is what happens when people get desperate and like,

950
01:14:01,175 --> 01:14:04,495
you can be a heartless capitalist and I'm actually generally a heartless capitalist,

951
01:14:04,495 --> 01:14:08,495
but these, this time period is not a time to be a heartless capitalist because if,

952
01:14:09,095 --> 01:14:13,075
I don't know, it's just, it's the world is changing really fast and I think it's going

953
01:14:13,075 --> 01:14:15,795
to get worse still. I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.

954
01:14:15,795 --> 01:14:21,955
as long as it gets better jeff a period of pain but i hope the world is better for my daughter

955
01:14:21,955 --> 01:14:25,775
it will be better for our kids we just have to get through this ugly period first

956
01:14:25,775 --> 01:14:30,015
yeah just like one last question to close out because this is something i think about quite a

957
01:14:30,015 --> 01:14:37,495
lot you've got young kids i've got a younger kid than you um do you think my toddler will ever have

958
01:14:37,495 --> 01:14:46,775
a job? Probably. And probably we won't even be able to recognize what it is. Like it won't make

959
01:14:46,775 --> 01:14:53,495
sense to us because it'll be so different. I don't think they'll have to do hard labor. I mean,

960
01:14:53,555 --> 01:14:58,855
unless there's a nuclear holocaust, right? So say we have a war, everything changes,

961
01:14:58,995 --> 01:15:03,035
and now we're on the other side of that. We're on a new financial system. We're growing again.

962
01:15:03,035 --> 01:15:12,275
we're building. I do think that AI and robotics will do most of the labor. I think people will

963
01:15:12,275 --> 01:15:17,235
do things like, I don't think colleges will really need to exist other than for fun. So people might

964
01:15:17,235 --> 01:15:23,615
go to school because it's sort of like, like, I think, in fact, I think college, the term, and I'm,

965
01:15:23,795 --> 01:15:28,515
I should, I should have checked this before I said this. It used to just be for wealthy people

966
01:15:28,515 --> 01:15:34,795
to go and like it was considered a luxury to go learn just sort of for fun, I think back in Athens

967
01:15:34,795 --> 01:15:39,495
or something like that. So again, I'm probably totally off on that. But I think we come back to

968
01:15:39,495 --> 01:15:43,515
a world like that because everyone will be able to know whatever they need to know with AI and

969
01:15:43,515 --> 01:15:50,115
you don't even have to know it anyways, because AI will know it. If there is work, it will be,

970
01:15:50,295 --> 01:15:55,875
it's kind of like if you told a farmer 100 years ago that you're a podcaster and that you, you know,

971
01:15:55,875 --> 01:16:00,215
that you interview people online, they would just be like, what are you talking about? Like,

972
01:16:00,255 --> 01:16:02,095
it wouldn't even make sense. I mean, my grandparents don't understand what I do.

973
01:16:02,155 --> 01:16:05,175
I've explained it like five times and they just have no idea what I do.

974
01:16:05,255 --> 01:16:10,515
Right, right. So I think it's actually going to be worse. So I think if you could fast forward 20

975
01:16:10,515 --> 01:16:15,015
years into the future, we'd be like, what? And they're going to say some just crazy thing. And

976
01:16:15,015 --> 01:16:18,395
maybe it has to do with like going to the moon or doing something here. And you're just like,

977
01:16:18,455 --> 01:16:22,055
what are you talking about? That's what I think it's going to be. It's going to be almost

978
01:16:22,055 --> 01:16:28,315
unrecognizable. And so, so yes, I think there'll be work. I don't think it will be bad work. I think

979
01:16:28,315 --> 01:16:34,035
in general, you know, humanity tend like it, life tends to get better over time and easier, even

980
01:16:34,035 --> 01:16:38,115
though we like to complain about it. Like we all have dishwashers and refrigerators and we don't

981
01:16:38,115 --> 01:16:41,515
have to go to the river to go get water, right? We have indoor plumbing and that kind of stuff.

982
01:16:41,755 --> 01:16:46,795
So I think it will get better. But I don't really know what work will look like, but I think it will

983
01:16:46,795 --> 01:16:51,595
be relative to today to today, it will be less work and it'll be easier work than today.

984
01:16:52,055 --> 01:16:58,575
well that's uh straight into the first turning then i'm looking forward to that um jeff thank

985
01:16:58,575 --> 01:17:03,515
you so much you are one of my favorite people to speak to this has been awesome um now you've got

986
01:17:03,515 --> 01:17:07,355
a new sub stack you need you're not on social media anymore so this is this is the opportunity

987
01:17:07,355 --> 01:17:11,835
to shill it tell everyone about what you're doing hey all right well thanks man i love our talk so

988
01:17:11,835 --> 01:17:16,795
you're nice to let me i honestly just feel like a tinfoil hat full full-on conspiracy i love it

989
01:17:16,795 --> 01:17:21,715
yeah i do too um and people are like just talk about bitcoin quit talking about the geopolitical

990
01:17:21,715 --> 01:17:25,835
stuff. Stay in your lane. I always have somebody, somebody tells me to stay in my lane. Anyways,

991
01:17:26,195 --> 01:17:29,255
as I, and just so those people know, I know, I know who you are. I'm watching you. You're going

992
01:17:29,255 --> 01:17:33,755
to tell me to stay in my lane. Like I'm a macro hedge fund manager. Like I actually have to know

993
01:17:33,755 --> 01:17:38,615
what's going on geopolitically. And I have to kind of see around the next corner in order to do well

994
01:17:38,615 --> 01:17:42,555
in my fund. So that's why I pay so much attention to this stuff. What am I doing, Danny? So, so

995
01:17:42,555 --> 01:17:47,695
thanks for asking. Um, I started in March, a new sub stack. So a newsletter basically, and it's

996
01:17:47,695 --> 01:17:53,255
called Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook. And another thing I want to say is I'm not so vain that I

997
01:17:53,255 --> 01:17:57,675
have to have people call me doctor. It's only because that's how people know me online is as

998
01:17:57,675 --> 01:18:02,255
Dr. Jeff. And everybody knows the real Jeff of like the Bitcoin and macro world is Jeff Booth.

999
01:18:02,415 --> 01:18:06,635
So I don't want them to think I'm him. And then there's another Jeff Ross, who's a comedian out

1000
01:18:06,635 --> 01:18:11,575
there, who's way more popular than I am. So if I just say Jeff Ross, then I get lost in the wind.

1001
01:18:11,635 --> 01:18:16,635
So that's why I say Dr. Jeff. It's not because I'm super vain. But what I'm doing is I spend most of

1002
01:18:16,635 --> 01:18:22,135
my days looking at charts and figuring out things, momentum and looking at kind of long-term and

1003
01:18:22,135 --> 01:18:28,315
short-term trends and long-term secular trends. And this notebook, I release an issue every other

1004
01:18:28,315 --> 01:18:33,415
Thursday morning. And it's basically the top five, at least for now, it's the top five charts that

1005
01:18:33,415 --> 01:18:39,215
I'm looking at and sort of the macro conclusions I draw from that. And a lot of people want to know,

1006
01:18:39,375 --> 01:18:44,035
am I going to be giving individual investment advice or like Bitcoin buying advice? And no,

1007
01:18:44,035 --> 01:18:48,355
I'm not. I can't do that as a fund manager. I'm literally restricted to do that because it's

1008
01:18:48,355 --> 01:18:53,455
considered general solicitation. I can't do that. So it's just my general thoughts, not unlike these

1009
01:18:53,455 --> 01:18:58,815
kind of interviews, but I like to teach in there and just kind of let people know what I'm thinking

1010
01:18:58,815 --> 01:19:04,035
about the world and also kind of my general thoughts as a hedge fund manager. So yeah,

1011
01:19:04,075 --> 01:19:07,435
it's a lot of fun. So feel free. It's called Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook. You can find me on

1012
01:19:07,435 --> 01:19:13,195
Substack. And that's pretty much the only place I'm posting these days. Amazing. I didn't know

1013
01:19:13,195 --> 01:19:18,335
this existed before today's call so i will be a subscriber um next time jeff i'm going to come to

1014
01:19:18,335 --> 01:19:22,255
you we should do another one in person but this has been awesome thank you very much thanks for

1015
01:19:22,255 --> 01:19:26,375
having me danny i love being on your show i will make sure the link's in the show for everyone to

1016
01:19:26,375 --> 01:19:31,095
check out the newsletter and i will speak to you soon mate i'm looking forward to it already

1017
01:19:43,195 --> 01:20:13,175
Thank you.