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I think setting in a new all-time high this year would definitely be a reason to assume that we're moving away from the four-year pattern.

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It's a big opportunity because we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap sats and Bitcoin will turn around again.

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I mean, Bitcoin is not going to zero.

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It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity and to even live in peace with AI.

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and Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.

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In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K

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and probably will go into the millions.

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If you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months

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and that will be rewarded.

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The rational route, the big carrot, you are back.

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Welcome back on the show, man.

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Thank you so much for having me, Danny.

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We've got a lot to talk about today.

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The world is going pretty fucking crazy at the moment.

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And the most interesting thing to me over the last week or two is that while, you know, the US is at war with Iran, the S&P is down, even gold's down, silver's down a bit and Bitcoin's up.

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What's different?

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Yeah, so I think, I mean, Bitcoin obviously had a big crash beforehand.

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And so I think the news of the war was not really a reason anymore to go lower, which actually is a very positive thing, right?

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Because Bitcoin is all about fear and greed.

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And so, you know, all these conflicts in the world, they create fear in the market.

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And that affects price action or it affects people's behavior, right?

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And so the fact that we actually had a war coming out with Iran and it didn't do much to Bitcoin shows that we're fairly long route in that bottom formation, let's say.

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I mean, there might still be a reason to go slightly lower and I'll explain with some charts why I think that might be the case.

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We don't have to get there.

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But this is a positive thing.

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We had this, like, on the 5th of February, we had, of course, a heavy leg down.

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And Bitcoin is already at very undervalued levels.

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If you look at, you know, many on-chain metrics, you know, Bitcoin is heavy undervalued.

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But it doesn't mean that we cannot go lower.

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I mean, usually in bear markets, time is also important.

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You know, like, it just takes sometimes a couple of months to form that bottom.

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And so I don't know if we'll get another leg down.

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But I do think we still have a couple of months to go before we really go back up again and go into the hundreds and so forth.

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Yeah, I mean, I know that we obviously had gone down a lot before this, but normally when there's a big geopolitical event, especially they always seem to happen when markets are closed, which again happened this time with the Iran war.

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Bitcoin normally falls off a cliff.

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And this time it was, I think it was up on the day of the actual, the start of the Iran war.

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And it's even higher today.

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today. Do you think that this is just because we'd had a big leg down, there was no more sellers at

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that point? Or do you think there's people waking up to Bitcoin as an idea? And I mean, we know a lot

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of people are trying to get out of the Middle East as quickly as possible and probably take as much

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with them as possible. And we know Bitcoin is the best thing for that. How much of this do you think

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is a narrative shift rather than just like we were already down a lot and Bitcoin didn't really want

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to go down further? Well, I think mainly because we had like a big crash beforehand. That was a

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reason why Bitcoin didn't drop any lower, even though we had another catalyst, because we already

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had had several catalysts. We had a couple of, we had a war each month. And so, you know, another war,

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okay, like, you know, it didn't affect Bitcoin as much. But there's some truth to like, okay,

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people in Iran using Bitcoin and stable coins for that matter, probably maybe as much stable coins,

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because, you know, the value is slightly more stable. And if you're in a war, you don't want

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to really deal with volatility as much. So I think that does play a role. I mean, I literally

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met people from Ukraine who escaped Ukraine on Bitcoin and were able to start a life in Europe

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with their Bitcoin, taking their value across borders. And so I think some of that might happen

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in Iran as well. I'm sure people in Iran are aware of the value proposition of Bitcoin,

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but then dealing with volatility in times of war and uncertainty is a reason to use stable coins as

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well. Now, I'm not sure what the reasons are for the war. I'm not a macro expert, but I'm happy to

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give some of my takes. This conflict, again, one of many this year. We saw Venezuela before,

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Now we see Iran. I think Trump is doing everything he can to keep the economy up before the midterms. So I'm not sure if like, I'm sure he wants this war to be over before the midterms, but I don't know if that's going to happen. I think maybe things are not going his way. And then I don't know how much Israel, I mean, Israel is obviously heavily involved. And I don't know how much that has to do with Trump. You know, I'm also not really going to speculate about that.

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But stablecoin uses is a very interesting factor for Trump, because stablecoin uses is a demand for government bonds. And so that is needed. And so maybe a key factor also that contributes to the start of this war.

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And so we will see how this turns out.

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I don't know.

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Historically, the midterms are obviously generally a bad year for markets in general.

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So we see usually a stock market crash around the midterms plus Bitcoin.

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And Bitcoin is usually early.

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I have a chart on that.

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Yeah, that's interesting because you'd have thought that going into the midterms,

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whoever's at the seat of power would want to have the markets pumping as much as possible.

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Yeah, so this one is specifically on the midterm cycles, midterm elections. And you can see that more or less around every midterm, Bitcoin makes a low. And currently we're at these. So this is actually the yearly RSI that we're looking at for Bitcoin in orange and the yearly RSI for the S&P 500 in light blue. And then we have the business cycle in dark blue.

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and so coming out of COVID we had a bit of a you know a bit of an after effect of COVID in terms of

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the business cycle so we yeah instead of going up steeply we were kind of like at these values

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below 50 which actually means a bit of a recessionary a recessionary environment and

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that took longer than usual and so there was you know this question are cycles shifting are cycles

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extending. But what we see now with Bitcoin is that Bitcoin is actually exactly following the

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four-year cycle. And so we're at these very low values, like below 45, which is historically where

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we find those bear market bottoms. And the S&P is actually rolling over. And so I don't know if

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it's going to crash before the midterms. I'm sure Trump doesn't want markets to crash, so he's doing

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everything in his power. But I don't know who is in control of this war, if it's Israel or

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Trump, you know, it seems to be that Israel has a lot of power, a big stake in this as

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well.

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And so I don't know how much influence Trump really has.

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And then, you know, this war is definitely affecting the economy.

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If we think of the, you know, the Strait of Hormuz, that is, you know, a big impact.

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It's a bit similar to the COVID supply shock that we had, but then for energy, right?

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And so that will for sure have a big impact on markets.

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And I'm sure that's not what Trump actually wants, especially not before the midterms.

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And so I don't know if he's able to resolve these things in the next couple of months, then it could have a positive effect still on the midterms.

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But if it doesn't, we could actually see markets crash maybe before the midterms, which historically has been many times the case.

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Whatever the catalyst was in the past, there are clearly catalysts for this time around.

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and like bitcoin obviously tracks the nasdaq pretty closely do you think if there was a broader

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market crash bitcoin would go with it um i think i mean bitcoin already is at heavy undervalue levels

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and so maybe that would be like the the final uh nail in the coffin let's say like you that we have

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this you know the capitulation event we could have another capitulation event that brings us to you

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know one more leg down uh so so that would definitely be an option but i don't think

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it will drag bitcoin down much further i think it will be more like covet you know you have

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initially like maybe a crash a bit of a capital a capitulation event and then you know bitcoin can

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shoot up again uh so so i think i mean forming this bottom will still take a couple of months

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in my opinion i mean historically it has in the four-year cycle and um yeah it everything just

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looks like we're still in the four-year cycle. And I know some of the dynamics are shifting,

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like the ISM PMI, the business cycle, which we show here in dark blue in this chart,

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had a longer time and it seems like it is extending. And that might still be the case,

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but Bitcoin has followed the exact path. If we look at on-chain indicators, we actually see so

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many similarities with previous cycles that the probability is just the highest that Bitcoin will

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just take a couple of months to form a bottom and then we kind of like have this slow grind up

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and because hype is a way hype is not in in in bitcoin's market currently definitely not you know

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we of course have a big hotler group which is here you know we you know the bitcoin maximalists are

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are here you know they will they always are but uh there's not not a lot of new people uh coming in

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to bitcoin at this moment and you know a lot of that hype of that mindshare has been taken away

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by AI and gold.

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So I have the chart on gold as well.

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So if we look at gold versus Bitcoin,

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I mean, gold had its 50-year run, right?

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Since the start of the fiat system,

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gold now is at RSI levels.

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We're still looking at RSI in this chart.

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Gold reached an RSI of 96,

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which historically has been

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the top of the bull markets

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in previous cycles.

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And so gold position currently is also not sustainable,

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although we could see like a double peak,

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which we also saw in Bitcoin many times.

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You know, you could stay at these high 90 range

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for a couple of months.

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So I think that's very likely for gold to happen as well.

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Gold could still go higher.

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But Bitcoin, at the other hand, is really forming a low.

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And Bitcoin is really showing a different behavior than gold.

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You know, Bitcoin is not really,

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like even though with this war, yes,

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We had an uptick in price, you know, even, but I don't think, and some, I mean, some people are using Bitcoin even as a safe haven in Iran.

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That is true.

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But I think that's such a small piece of the market, you know, of the global market that Bitcoin has.

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So Bitcoin really is still much more heavily correlated to risk on assets and not so much a safe haven.

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But Bitcoin is very liquidity driven.

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And so Bitcoin, in my opinion, will never really behave like digital gold or like the analog gold. Bitcoin is really, yeah, I've said this before, it's more about optimism and tech and really solving the monetary issues in the world where gold is a bit of like, it always has this negative connotation.

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It's always about an escape for war.

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And so then we go back to the old metal, let's say, that instead of thinking of new tech and living in a digital world, people go to use gold as a safe haven.

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So I think Bitcoin in the near future will not really start behaving like a safe haven.

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It will still be heavily treated as a tech asset, let's say.

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coverage, visit anchorwatch.com today. That's anchorwatch.com. Yeah, I mean, you said there

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that Bitcoin, there's no hype around the Bitcoin market at the moment, which is definitely true.

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Like sentiment is almost as low as it gets, it seems. But I don't even think we had that much

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hype in the last bull market. Like when Bitcoin was above 100k, there wasn't that much hype,

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not like previous cycles. It feels like you have to go back to really like the launch of the ETFs

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to get any kind of real hype around this.

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Do you think that is coming back

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or do you think the sort of makeup

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of the Bitcoin market,

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the people that are involved,

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the people that can actually move the price

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has changed to the point where

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sort of retail FOMO doesn't really matter anymore?

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I'm sure we'll still get a phase of retail FOMO

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at some time in the future,

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but it is true that this cycle

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has been much more about institutions getting involved

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and not so much retail.

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And I think so, so what happened is actually, so 90% of, or even 95% of the Bitcoin supply is mined, right? We have currently 20 million coins in circulation since this week, by the way. So still the final million will be mined in the next 100 years.

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and so that is in in hands of basically retail like most of it you know and and this cycle was

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about that transition from retail to institutions and um i mean some of these institutions also

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represents retail again indirectly with which you know which we see with etfs but there's also

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many institutions getting involved and and there's we're still at the beginning of that but this is

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actually what we want for bitcoin adoption to happen you know like we cannot not have institutions

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adopting Bitcoin and become the world reserve asset, right? That's impossible. Institutions

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are built out of people. And so if Bitcoin gets the world adoption, we naturally need actually

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institutions to come into space. I mean, I would brush water, see Gen Z totally interested in

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Bitcoin and coming into the space, but they're not at the age, like some are starting, but they're

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not really at the age of where they start thinking about pension and savings as much. And so I think

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what mainly happened is that in the past 10 or 15 years, like much of retail, like the people that

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would become interested in Bitcoin have had the chance, you know, we've had several hype cycles,

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you know, for people to be waking up to Bitcoin and or to hear about Bitcoin. And so if you're

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not in Bitcoin after these 15 years, you know, it's unlikely that you will also get into it in

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the next 10 years or so.

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Um, and so, so I, I think what we now see institutional adoption is actually a great

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step forward.

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This is what we want.

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Uh, we now have BlackRock behind, behind Bitcoin.

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Uh you know we have the strategic Bitcoin reserves and um yeah some of it of course is is not as good as it as it sounds I mean I don Trump Trump is not really a Bitcoiner You know he did this for you know he was basically bought off to have this

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But his sons are very interested in Bitcoin, obviously.

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And so they have had banking issues in the past.

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And so they at least understand some of the value proposition of Bitcoin.

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And so I think regulation is getting, you know, much better in the US.

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so I think also it's going to be possible soon to get you know like to borrow against your bitcoin

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so which will reduce sell pressure also from from retail but in my opinion yeah we're really in this

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IPO phase where you know basically the people that bet on bitcoin in the past 15 years were right and

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so they they have made they have made a lot of gains and so we're now in a transition phase where

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some of that money flows to institutions and I think that's totally natural that's actually

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it's the success of Bitcoin.

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And so it might seem like,

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oh, you know, less retail is coming into Bitcoin.

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And so that's a bad thing.

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But we actually see like really observable

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institutional adoption.

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And that is what we want to see.

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And I think that will continue into the next cycles.

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And so I think, you know,

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we're currently at price levels

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that are not as attractive to sell as a hotler.

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But I think the 100K was really a psychological level,

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just like 10K.

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We took a long time to surpass that 10K level.

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And I think for 100K, we need to go through a similar phase where we have seen actually

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a lot of self-pressure from the Hottler cohort.

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Yeah.

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Institutions need to get Bitcoin.

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Just don't give them your Bitcoin.

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You've talked about the four-year cycle, and this has been a big question to me.

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I was on the wrong side of this in the sense that I thought this time was going to be different.

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I still think it potentially could be.

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But what do you think is actually driving the four-year cycle if it's still intact?

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Because we know the impact of supply issuance is getting to the point where it's negligible.

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Whether it is now or not, it's probably debatable.

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But what do you think is actually driving this?

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Yeah, so I think there's still a lot of psychology around it.

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Bitcoin has historically only moved in this four-year cycle pattern.

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And so it's expectations that also set these dynamics.

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And I think it also, you know, there's these catalysts that have an effect on Bitcoin and events that happen in the world. And I think we've had a lot of distraction this cycle. I mean, we had institutions come into space. And as you said correctly, the most hype we've had was actually institutional hype, like before or right around that ETF approval.

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and and so that was the the maximum hype we've seen in this entire bull market and then it started

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like slowly fading fading away a bit um so what what i think is the the main driver of the four

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year cycle is that um since since you know a lot of mindshare went to ai and and and actually uh

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you know there is a lot of value in ai i mean it's really going to change the world uh so it's

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it's understandable that, you know, some of that mindshare got taken away. And then we had gold,

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like on a run, you know, not seen in 50 years, basically. And so, you know, a lot of hype went

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to other markets. And this actually took away a bit the hype from Bitcoin's market. And that,

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I think, contributed to the fact that we now got to the lows that we are currently at.

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so you think the reason the cycle's intact still is because of basically it being a self-fulfilling

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prophecy and because it's happened in the past people think it's going to happen again in the

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future and therefore sell coins you know come the end of the year so i think indeed expectations

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from previous cycle dynamics played a key role but i also think that um like for some reason i mean

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the timing of hype around AI and gold happened at the exact moment in the four-year cycle,

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such that, you know, the hype was taken away from Bitcoin. And then so Bitcoin started dropping,

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and then it became a bit of this self-fulfilling prophecy, like that we again, you know, we're in

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time-wise, we're again at that stage where, you know, Bitcoin should move into a bear market.

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And then we had actually key reasons to do so, which, you know, mainly, for example, hype being

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taking away by other markets. So what would have to happen for you to say, yeah, the cycle is

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broken? Like if Bitcoin got back above 100k close to all time highs in the next, like, say, six to

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nine months, would that would that to you feel like the cycle is actually broken then? Not really,

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because we already are actually at substantial bear market levels currently. Now, I don't know

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how low we'll go. Actually, I think so. I think it's still the probability is the highest that

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it will still take a couple of months to form this bottom. But we do see passive flows moving

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into Bitcoin from these treasury companies like Saylor keeps buying on a weekly basis or so.

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And so those passive flows that move into Bitcoin also will suppress a bit of the downside.

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And so we don't have to go as low this cycle, just as we didn't go as high this cycle,

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because we had more gradual institutional adoption

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rather than very hype-driven retail hype in the cycle.

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And so I think it's possible to still hoover around

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these lower levels for the next couple of months.

280
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And possibly we get a leg down,

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and it depends on some of these macro circumstances

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and catalysts.

283
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And a bit also, if Bitcoin doesn't move anywhere,

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you know patience you know kind of dries up with the hotter cohort and so some some might there

285
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might be another capitalization event be needed before we really set in the low and then we can

286
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start it gradually move up but so like bull and bear cycles are always going to happen but what

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like what has to happen to break out of this four-year cycle for you like if we got new all-time

288
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highs this year would that say the four-year cycle is not real like i want to know what it would be

289
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that would make you go okay that's now not the case like we obviously always going to have bull

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and bear markets. But how does it break that sort of psychology around the four-year cycle?

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I think setting in a new autumn high this year would definitely be a reason to assume that we're

292
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moving away from the four-year pattern. Now, we're basically at lows, and you can see it in this

293
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RSI chart. We're at lows of similar to previous bear market bottoms. And so, yeah, we haven't seen

294
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a 70-80% drop yet, but that is because we never had this blow off top. We had the most distributed

295
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cycle so far. And so we don't have to go as low to get to these bear market levels. So I think we

296
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already are at substantial bear market levels. Time-wise, there's still a couple of months

297
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on our side. That's why I say we can hoover around these lows for a couple of months still.

298
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but in a way like price wise we're already at heavy undervalued levels and so if we start

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gradually moving up from here that actually keeps us within the four-year cycle now we still have a

300
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couple of months but if we would yeah make it an autumn high a new autumn high this year then this

301
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whole bear market would be indeed a mini bear market and as such and more like a mid-cycle dip

302
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like it's a 50% drop that we're currently at.

303
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But it would start to feel more like a 2019 situation

304
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where we had this, a bit of like this mid-cycle dip,

305
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which was pretty severe.

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Like actually that was a struggle around that 10K level.

307
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Then we had this mid-cycle dip and then we had COVID

308
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and then we started moving into a bull market.

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Now that is still a possibility.

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And given that the business cycle is actually coming out

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of this recessionary state, that is an option.

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So I'm entirely open to that situation.

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I just don't think it's the most probable outcome.

314
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I think it's much more likely to, since hype is away, it takes time for hype to move back

315
00:26:02,428 --> 00:26:02,908
into Bitcoin.

316
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And so I think we still need a couple of months to set that low.

317
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And then gradually Bitcoin starts moving up.

318
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And when, again, we start reaching those 100k levels, there might still be some sell pressure

319
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from that hot or cohort, like people that actually would have wanted to take more profits,

320
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maybe around the top, but, you know, we never reach those price targets that, you know, we're

321
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hoped for. And so you get some gradual sell pressure still. And then once we move past that,

322
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we get actually really ready to make new all-time highs. Yeah, I agree that the probability is that

323
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we sort of hang around these levels for a little bit. But what probability would you put on us

324
00:26:37,368 --> 00:26:43,608
hitting a new all-time high this year? I think they are very low. I think

325
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um an ultimate high this year for me is like around 30 or so okay not that low i'll take it

326
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yeah there's still a 70 chance to to just follow the four-year cycle

327
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should we move on to the next chart yeah so uh maybe we just start with this chart so um

328
00:27:06,748 --> 00:27:12,728
so we had basically this bullish trend in bitcoin like like since the 2022 bear market low

329
00:27:12,728 --> 00:27:16,328
we had a bullish trend which you can see in this chart this is actually

330
00:27:16,328 --> 00:27:25,208
the low of a channel that i drew based on a regression on on all of the price data from that

331
00:27:25,208 --> 00:27:31,208
three-year bull market and and so once we started you know soon after the ultimate high that we made

332
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and we started like dropping below the short-term holocaust basis we also fell below that bullish

333
00:27:36,588 --> 00:27:42,288
trend. And that was for me, you know, a severe warning signal. Okay, you know, Bitcoin cannot

334
00:27:42,288 --> 00:27:49,188
sustain and actually, so bullish trend. So it looks it's a linear line on this chart, but it's

335
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actually an exponential trend, because the price data is shown in log scale on this chart. And so

336
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if you would look at it in linear scale, it would be curved line up. And so an exponential trend is

337
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never sustainable, by the way, so it will always end. And so the bull market will at some point

338
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and we'll fall into a bear market.

339
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And so soon after making the all-time high,

340
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we broke below that trend line.

341
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And so that was a severe warning cycle.

342
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And that didn't mean necessarily

343
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that it was the end of the bull market,

344
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but it did mean that we were not going to sustain

345
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that bull market at that trend.

346
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Now, once we started dropping below

347
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that $2 trillion cap line,

348
00:28:29,428 --> 00:28:31,848
which actually coincides with the 100K price level,

349
00:28:31,848 --> 00:28:38,828
very psychological price level for bitcoiners that was again another signal okay hey this this

350
00:28:38,828 --> 00:28:44,628
consolidation or this dip is going to take slightly longer and so then we had a retest of

351
00:28:44,628 --> 00:28:50,588
the short-term holocaust basis which i warned my followers okay you know we're time-wise we're in

352
00:28:50,588 --> 00:28:55,268
a four-year cycle it looked like we looks definitely like we could move into a bear market

353
00:28:55,268 --> 00:29:00,668
if you know if you cannot sustain a year a year-long bear market this is a good time to

354
00:29:00,668 --> 00:29:05,908
take profit, you know, because, you know, it's, it's all, it's of course, always risk management.

355
00:29:06,448 --> 00:29:11,628
We, nobody knows where Bitcoin is going to go, but there was a big likelihood that, you know,

356
00:29:11,668 --> 00:29:16,528
this dip was going to take a long time. And so I took profit at the level. I shared that with my

357
00:29:16,528 --> 00:29:22,708
followers. And then actually then soon after we had that, that not another leg down to that minus

358
00:29:22,708 --> 00:29:29,608
50% from the ultimate high. And that was a severe capitulation event, but still not similar to

359
00:29:29,608 --> 00:29:36,168
previous bear market bottoms it was like and and during a bear market of bitcoin uh if we look at

360
00:29:36,168 --> 00:29:42,808
on-chain data for example profit levels or so and so forth we can actually um you know estimate like

361
00:29:42,808 --> 00:29:46,668
or see how there there's are there are actually usually several capitulation events and we can

362
00:29:46,668 --> 00:29:51,808
actually look at the size of the capitulation event and so we can compare that and and and so

363
00:29:51,808 --> 00:30:05,068
this drop seemed more like a June 2022 drop in the previous cycle, which I have a chart on that.

364
00:30:05,128 --> 00:30:12,048
Maybe we can move to that. I think it's this one. So the current drop here, which you see in that

365
00:30:12,048 --> 00:30:18,808
gray area, is very similar to the June drop in the previous bear market. And we've seen that

366
00:30:18,808 --> 00:30:20,408
also in previous cycles.

367
00:30:20,668 --> 00:30:23,908
And so you can see that there's still a couple of months

368
00:30:23,908 --> 00:30:29,008
of this bottom formation after such event.

369
00:30:29,108 --> 00:30:30,828
And so we had a severe capitalization event,

370
00:30:30,928 --> 00:30:34,308
but not of the size that we saw at the bear market bottom,

371
00:30:34,548 --> 00:30:38,348
like FTX, for example, here at the bear market bottom in 2022.

372
00:30:39,708 --> 00:30:45,508
And so to me, yeah, that means that we still have a couple of months time-wise,

373
00:30:45,508 --> 00:30:48,808
and so people need to be a bit patient.

374
00:30:49,608 --> 00:30:51,708
So you said there you took some profit.

375
00:30:52,528 --> 00:30:54,828
Have you bought back in yet or what are you waiting for?

376
00:30:56,048 --> 00:30:59,228
No, I'm actually not.

377
00:30:59,328 --> 00:31:01,808
I took some profit to sustain the bear market year.

378
00:31:02,948 --> 00:31:08,748
So as a hotler, I also look to improve my lifestyle

379
00:31:08,748 --> 00:31:12,228
and I knew that there was a high risk

380
00:31:12,228 --> 00:31:14,788
of having a year-long bear market.

381
00:31:14,788 --> 00:31:25,488
And so I did not want to risk, you know, not having enough funds to sustain the whole year for the lifestyle improvements that I'm undergoing.

382
00:31:26,168 --> 00:31:30,708
And so that was for me a key reason to take some profit at those levels.

383
00:31:32,048 --> 00:31:34,808
Okay, fair enough. It's not something you were looking to buy back in with necessarily.

384
00:31:35,628 --> 00:31:40,768
No, I have a long term stack. And actually, I have like a stacking goal still as well.

385
00:31:40,768 --> 00:31:46,248
but you know given that we're moving into a year bear market or that likely was very high

386
00:31:46,248 --> 00:31:52,588
it was a good moment to take profit now i'm i do i might buy back in if we really get another leg

387
00:31:52,588 --> 00:31:57,208
down and we get to these undervalued levels and i have some charts on that later i can show you

388
00:31:57,208 --> 00:32:03,328
where that would be um no price might just be too good and i might move some some funds back

389
00:32:03,328 --> 00:32:08,468
but basically i i plan on some lifestyle improvements and and so instead of waiting

390
00:32:08,468 --> 00:32:10,448
for potential higher prices of Bitcoin,

391
00:32:10,868 --> 00:32:15,208
I took some earlier profits to sustain a bear market year.

392
00:32:15,828 --> 00:32:16,268
Fair enough.

393
00:32:16,348 --> 00:32:17,308
You've got to live your life, man.

394
00:32:17,708 --> 00:32:20,328
So the thing that I've seen around this chart

395
00:32:20,328 --> 00:32:21,768
or a similar chart on Twitter

396
00:32:21,768 --> 00:32:24,028
from all the TA people out there

397
00:32:24,028 --> 00:32:27,008
is that people are calling this another bear flag now.

398
00:32:27,648 --> 00:32:28,408
I don't know how much,

399
00:32:28,408 --> 00:32:30,108
I don't put too much credence on TA,

400
00:32:30,108 --> 00:32:31,788
but is that something you're watching?

401
00:32:33,688 --> 00:32:37,308
Yeah, I mean, I put more thought into on-chain analysis

402
00:32:37,308 --> 00:32:41,028
And I have some very good charts on this, but indeed it could be.

403
00:32:41,808 --> 00:32:46,048
And so I still think there's a reason that we might have another leg down.

404
00:32:46,148 --> 00:32:47,848
I think their chance is fairly high even.

405
00:32:48,468 --> 00:32:50,728
And that would happen over the next couple of months.

406
00:32:51,088 --> 00:32:53,428
But as I said, we also have passive flows into Bitcoin.

407
00:32:53,708 --> 00:32:56,148
And so we don't have to get there this time.

408
00:32:56,288 --> 00:33:07,048
Just as, you know, we didn't have this blow of thought or like we had such a distributed thought, but we also didn't even reach 140K, which was a bit disappointing, I guess, for many.

409
00:33:07,308 --> 00:33:12,788
Um, also I think now maybe some people will get disappointed by the lows that we make

410
00:33:12,788 --> 00:33:15,188
or like that they, that we cannot buy cheap sats.

411
00:33:15,888 --> 00:33:16,308
Makes sense.

412
00:33:16,408 --> 00:33:16,668
Okay.

413
00:33:16,768 --> 00:33:17,868
Let's go on to the next one.

414
00:33:17,928 --> 00:33:18,808
What else have we got?

415
00:33:19,248 --> 00:33:19,448
Yeah.

416
00:33:19,508 --> 00:33:24,728
So, so as I say, so we have all this conflict in the world, um, but, but it, it, it basically

417
00:33:24,728 --> 00:33:27,688
always comes down to fear and greed, like within Bitcoin.

418
00:33:27,688 --> 00:33:28,168
Right.

419
00:33:28,528 --> 00:33:36,328
And, and, um, so this, the events that we have seen actually now, um, uh, made us drop.

420
00:33:36,328 --> 00:33:42,068
So in this chart, I actually have some levels based on the short-term holder cost basis.

421
00:33:42,068 --> 00:33:48,628
And basically, those levels are, you know, how much loss can a short-term holder sustain?

422
00:33:49,108 --> 00:33:53,668
And so we have this short-term holder floor and the mezzanine level in between.

423
00:33:54,688 --> 00:34:01,748
And so with that February 5th drop, we nearly reached, so this is actually daily closed data.

424
00:34:01,748 --> 00:34:07,808
But if you would look at the actual price, we nearly touched that short-term holder floor level.

425
00:34:08,308 --> 00:34:12,768
And now we kind of moved up again about, you know, above that mezzanine level.

426
00:34:12,908 --> 00:34:18,668
So we're in the middle of those levels, which is a very common level to get to if we look at Bitcoin's history.

427
00:34:19,428 --> 00:34:24,428
And usually, so for example, with COVID, we reached that short-term holder floor.

428
00:34:24,928 --> 00:34:30,908
But during that 2019 mini bear, let's say, we only got to that mezzanine level.

429
00:34:30,908 --> 00:34:37,108
If it wasn't for COVID, we would have probably stayed around that mezzanine level and slightly moved up again from there.

430
00:34:37,208 --> 00:34:42,148
But in the bear market, you see we can hit that floor a couple of times.

431
00:34:42,788 --> 00:34:45,148
And so we did that actually in June of 22.

432
00:34:45,628 --> 00:34:47,488
We also reached that.

433
00:34:47,908 --> 00:34:50,588
So again, very similar to June 22.

434
00:34:51,268 --> 00:34:53,188
And then, you know, we started moving up.

435
00:34:53,288 --> 00:34:54,848
We still had a final leg down.

436
00:34:54,948 --> 00:34:56,688
That was, again, only to the mezzanine level.

437
00:34:56,688 --> 00:34:59,708
But as you see, that floor level moves down also heavily.

438
00:34:59,708 --> 00:35:02,828
and so I think this is a very useful chart

439
00:35:02,828 --> 00:35:05,448
I think so we're now at the mezzanine level

440
00:35:05,448 --> 00:35:07,768
I think we might have another retest

441
00:35:07,768 --> 00:35:10,148
in the next couple of months maybe

442
00:35:10,148 --> 00:35:11,528
or in the next month or so

443
00:35:11,528 --> 00:35:14,208
towards that short-term molar cost basis

444
00:35:14,208 --> 00:35:16,148
just as we did after June 2022

445
00:35:16,148 --> 00:35:17,848
we kind of hoovered between the mezzanine

446
00:35:17,848 --> 00:35:19,568
and short-term molar cost basis a couple of times

447
00:35:19,568 --> 00:35:22,388
but I think it's likely that we'll still reject

448
00:35:22,388 --> 00:35:24,208
off that short-term molar cost basis

449
00:35:24,208 --> 00:35:26,328
because it's an interesting level

450
00:35:26,328 --> 00:35:37,856
and a bear market to take people are actually even then with their investments and so it often a reason why they get out of the market but so i so i think that is still possible to

451
00:35:37,856 --> 00:35:44,016
of course those move those levels will be moving be moving down uh and so so i think a retest of

452
00:35:44,016 --> 00:35:50,216
the shorter molar cost basis uh and then maybe again another try out to the to the mezzanine

453
00:35:50,216 --> 00:35:56,316
level and then uh up from there that is that is the most probable outcome in my opinion if you

454
00:35:56,316 --> 00:36:00,516
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455
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456
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457
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458
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459
00:36:19,076 --> 00:36:23,336
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460
00:36:23,336 --> 00:36:28,336
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461
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462
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465
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466
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468
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470
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471
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472
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473
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474
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475
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476
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478
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479
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480
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481
00:37:48,596 --> 00:37:54,117
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482
00:37:54,596 --> 00:38:01,756
That's leden.io forward slash wbd. Do you not think that the sort of structure of the market

483
00:38:01,756 --> 00:38:06,096
will change the behavior of this though? Because if you look back at the last two times we hit that

484
00:38:06,096 --> 00:38:12,117
lower band, it looks like it was COVID and that was a very quick touch and then straight back up

485
00:38:12,117 --> 00:38:17,936
basically, which obviously a huge event that affected the world globally, affected the economy.

486
00:38:17,936 --> 00:38:24,476
Then we've got the crash after FTX blew up, which was a very Bitcoin sort of crypto specific crash.

487
00:38:25,016 --> 00:38:28,396
It was one of those moments where you were like, how deep does this go?

488
00:38:28,836 --> 00:38:31,456
How systemic to the entire Bitcoin market is this?

489
00:38:31,516 --> 00:38:36,276
It was like in some ways an existential threat to a lot of the businesses that ran within Bitcoin.

490
00:38:36,436 --> 00:38:37,657
We saw so many close down.

491
00:38:38,256 --> 00:38:42,516
Like this time's different, I think, in the sense that we have the passive flows in the ETFs.

492
00:38:43,016 --> 00:38:44,117
Institutions are here.

493
00:38:44,476 --> 00:38:47,677
I think people are probably looking at Bitcoin right now as being very good value.

494
00:38:47,677 --> 00:38:48,536
I certainly am.

495
00:38:48,836 --> 00:38:50,896
Like, does that not change the behavior of this chart?

496
00:38:52,576 --> 00:38:55,476
Yeah, so actually, it might.

497
00:38:55,637 --> 00:38:58,197
So as I said, like, maybe this will be the low

498
00:38:58,197 --> 00:39:00,296
since we have passive flows moving into the space.

499
00:39:00,516 --> 00:39:01,976
And maybe time-wise,

500
00:39:02,016 --> 00:39:04,096
we'll still just move around these lower levels.

501
00:39:04,236 --> 00:39:08,677
But maybe we already sat in the low in that recent rent,

502
00:39:08,836 --> 00:39:11,456
the February 5th drop, like similar to June 2022.

503
00:39:12,117 --> 00:39:14,456
Like, so in June, if it wasn't for FTX,

504
00:39:14,456 --> 00:39:16,896
we wouldn't have gotten like another lag down,

505
00:39:16,896 --> 00:39:23,796
you know temporarily and but this time around there's also so much macro uncertainty so i don't

506
00:39:23,796 --> 00:39:28,296
know i mean if we are now the the straight of foremost like how much effect will it have on

507
00:39:28,296 --> 00:39:33,056
global markets yeah you know what what if we get it what if we do get a recession in the next year

508
00:39:33,056 --> 00:39:38,476
or so like a really a crash in stock markets that that would be definitely enough of a catalyst to

509
00:39:38,476 --> 00:39:45,356
have like a potential short another leg down let's say to that mezzanine level and then go back up

510
00:39:45,356 --> 00:39:50,977
from there. So I think there's enough uncertainty in the world to function as a catalyst for

511
00:39:50,977 --> 00:39:54,996
something like that to happen. Yeah, that does make sense. Like if we see

512
00:39:54,996 --> 00:39:58,856
oil go back above $100, the economy start really teetering.

513
00:39:58,876 --> 00:40:02,016
It's already at $100. Is it back at $100 today?

514
00:40:02,376 --> 00:40:08,876
It depends on which metric you're looking at, but I think US crude is at 96 or something.

515
00:40:08,876 --> 00:40:16,677
uh and so yeah you're right yeah um so i mean i think in that scenario yeah i could totally see

516
00:40:16,677 --> 00:40:21,736
bitcoin going down further but i also think it increases the chance of them just doing a mega

517
00:40:21,736 --> 00:40:27,756
print and who knows what happened the next i mean yeah so as i said so so that very much depends so

518
00:40:27,756 --> 00:40:33,356
if trump is able to resolve this war and you know in may we're going to see changes of the fed chair

519
00:40:33,356 --> 00:40:36,756
and we know that there's going to be like a brick print coming.

520
00:40:37,556 --> 00:40:38,896
You know, wars are inflationary.

521
00:40:39,516 --> 00:40:42,996
And so, you know, but if the war could be resolved somehow,

522
00:40:43,336 --> 00:40:45,696
like before May and then in May we get the print,

523
00:40:46,756 --> 00:40:49,956
you know, then maybe indeed we, you know, we set in the low

524
00:40:49,956 --> 00:40:52,216
and then maybe the February 5th was the low

525
00:40:52,216 --> 00:40:54,316
and we started like gradually moving up

526
00:40:54,316 --> 00:40:57,657
and maybe into the midterms we won't see a market crash.

527
00:40:57,736 --> 00:41:00,396
That's obviously what Trump is trying to do.

528
00:41:00,916 --> 00:41:02,416
Now, if it's going to work, I don't know

529
00:41:02,416 --> 00:41:07,916
because I don't think he expected the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

530
00:41:07,916 --> 00:41:15,137
And that's a COVID similar type of shock to the world's energy supply.

531
00:41:15,556 --> 00:41:18,157
And so I don't know how this will unpack.

532
00:41:18,776 --> 00:41:21,117
Yeah, we want to see Bitcoin go up, but not like this.

533
00:41:22,137 --> 00:41:24,137
All right, let's go on to the next one.

534
00:41:25,316 --> 00:41:29,117
Yeah, so I thought maybe we can talk a bit about where we are in the cycle

535
00:41:29,117 --> 00:41:32,677
since we are exactly within the four-year cycle.

536
00:41:33,816 --> 00:41:36,876
So this is actually the four-year cycle displayed here.

537
00:41:37,096 --> 00:41:39,536
And it showed the days until the halving.

538
00:41:39,936 --> 00:41:42,996
So cycles are aligned here with the days until the halving.

539
00:41:43,576 --> 00:41:47,316
And those dotted lines are the realized price,

540
00:41:47,316 --> 00:41:52,536
which is a basic, very key on-chain metric.

541
00:41:53,016 --> 00:41:56,316
It's the average purchase price of all Bitcoin in circulation.

542
00:41:56,696 --> 00:41:58,336
That's the realized price.

543
00:41:58,336 --> 00:42:19,196
And so if we line the market, like if we line all these cycles with the realized price, we see that during that bear market bottom formation, which, you know, in my opinion, there's a high probability of that to happen in the next couple of months, we fall below that realized price.

544
00:42:19,196 --> 00:42:25,236
and so that that could bring us to levels currently the realized price is around 54k

545
00:42:25,236 --> 00:42:32,977
um or you know nearly 55k uh so so you know there's a big reason we could potentially drop

546
00:42:32,977 --> 00:42:39,036
below that below 55k still with one more leg down in the next couple of months and so it depends

547
00:42:39,036 --> 00:42:45,056
very much on the macro circumstances i agree uh we have passive flows and so we don't have to get

548
00:42:45,056 --> 00:42:50,496
there but uh you know i think if you're looking to get into bitcoin it's it's um it's probably the

549
00:42:50,496 --> 00:42:57,477
the best strategy is to to dca over the next couple of months into bitcoin and uh maybe you

550
00:42:57,477 --> 00:43:02,296
catch that another leg down like if you don't okay if we start moving up and we already sat in the

551
00:43:02,296 --> 00:43:08,117
low great but uh yeah i think there's still enough uncertainty in the world for for one more leg down

552
00:43:08,117 --> 00:43:13,736
to happen see the thing in this chart that i would fade and i'm willing to put myself out on a limb

553
00:43:13,736 --> 00:43:18,776
here and this could age like milk but this would suggest that we have another year of sort of

554
00:43:18,776 --> 00:43:24,536
sideways down and i just can't see that happening i could be totally wrong but i can't see that

555
00:43:24,536 --> 00:43:30,637
happening my gut doesn't say that's what's going to happen so so to really form the bottom would

556
00:43:30,637 --> 00:43:38,137
only take like give and take six months at most um and then indeed to kind of start to recovery

557
00:43:38,137 --> 00:43:42,796
which would already be the beginning of a bull market by the way huh so so if we i mean going

558
00:43:42,796 --> 00:43:47,657
back to, do I have a chart on that? So going back to that. So do you consider the bull market

559
00:43:47,657 --> 00:43:54,696
starting the day we hit the lowest print? Yeah. So, so I mean, I mean, this is what we look at,

560
00:43:54,776 --> 00:43:59,556
like if we, if we, if we look at the bull trend, then we also start counting from the bear market

561
00:43:59,556 --> 00:44:03,677
bottom, right? So if you get in around that bear market bottom, you have a three year trend,

562
00:44:03,796 --> 00:44:09,296
like a three year uptrend, an exponential uptrend. And so, so in a way in the next six months,

563
00:44:09,296 --> 00:44:14,896
and it could also maybe maybe it will be only be four or three uh you know maybe in may we before

564
00:44:14,896 --> 00:44:21,316
like when when the print is is going to happen uh you know like so so uh but i think if we once we

565
00:44:21,316 --> 00:44:25,916
set in the low in the next couple of months and then we start moving up then in in a way you could

566
00:44:25,916 --> 00:44:30,356
look at that already as the start of a new bull market although you don't really know if we're in

567
00:44:30,356 --> 00:44:36,396
a bull market yet i mean we really have to move up like above that short tomorrow cost basis get a

568
00:44:36,396 --> 00:44:41,177
retest and actually, you know, stay above it, that would be like a confirmation of the start of a

569
00:44:41,177 --> 00:44:45,856
bullish trend again. And so that's what I'm looking for in the next couple of months. But indeed,

570
00:44:45,856 --> 00:44:52,276
that means that we get a bit more like sideways price action for potentially a year because we,

571
00:44:52,416 --> 00:44:58,477
I mean, if we drop to 50 still in the next three months, and then we start moving again up and

572
00:44:58,477 --> 00:45:05,576
we'll be around, you know, maybe 80s, 90s in eight or nine months or maybe 10 or 12 months even,

573
00:45:05,576 --> 00:45:09,856
And yeah, that would look very similar to previous cycles.

574
00:45:10,637 --> 00:45:13,137
And I think that's a realistic outcome.

575
00:45:14,137 --> 00:45:15,516
I would take the bet on this one.

576
00:45:17,356 --> 00:45:22,996
Let's say in two years' time, if we were to look at this chart, I think we will look at this saying this time actually might have been different.

577
00:45:23,076 --> 00:45:24,236
But this could be pure cope.

578
00:45:24,296 --> 00:45:24,796
Who knows?

579
00:45:25,896 --> 00:45:26,936
Yeah, I mean, I agree.

580
00:45:27,496 --> 00:45:33,696
With the business cycle changing, as I said, the business cycle is actually coming out of a recessionary state.

581
00:45:33,696 --> 00:45:39,556
but yeah maybe all these dynamics that are currently going on with straight from was closed

582
00:45:39,556 --> 00:45:45,876
and the supply energy supply shock it could it maybe it moves again back below for some reason

583
00:45:45,876 --> 00:45:51,596
i don't know i although yeah there could be an extended cycle so maybe we'll only get a mild

584
00:45:51,596 --> 00:45:57,177
bear market as i said we do also have passive flows but for me i mean the highest probability

585
00:45:57,177 --> 00:46:02,536
is to still continue the four-year cycle path the reason being at most because hype is out of the

586
00:46:02,536 --> 00:46:08,416
market hype is in ai hype is in gold hype is not really in bitcoin um then there's all this conflict

587
00:46:08,416 --> 00:46:14,137
in the world and and so you know bitcoin's patience will be tested over the next couple of months

588
00:46:14,137 --> 00:46:19,356
and some will lose faith a bit like okay maybe bitcoin is not going anywhere you know if we

589
00:46:19,356 --> 00:46:25,436
still another two months of sideways action price action i think you know some people will be

590
00:46:25,436 --> 00:46:31,216
in patience and and you know they they want to chase uh profits and so that maybe they also

591
00:46:31,216 --> 00:46:38,096
flipped to AI again. Many already did. So I wouldn't be too surprised if we got such a

592
00:46:38,096 --> 00:46:43,836
scenario which is portrayed here in the chart. Fair enough. Okay, let's go on to the next one.

593
00:46:45,836 --> 00:46:54,036
Don't sound happy about that one. I'm not unhappy about it. There's a lot of dynamics in there that

594
00:46:54,036 --> 00:47:00,456
I don't know if I totally agree with the premise on. I do agree that obviously we've not had the

595
00:47:00,456 --> 00:47:06,576
hype. But I wonder if there's people now looking at gold being over $5,000. You showed that

596
00:47:06,576 --> 00:47:13,916
indicator before the RSI is way up there in the 90s. Does some of that money, does it feel like

597
00:47:13,916 --> 00:47:17,756
gold's topping at some point, even if it's only short term? And does some of that money start

598
00:47:17,756 --> 00:47:20,856
rolling back into Bitcoin? I think there's a lot of dynamics that you could look at that might

599
00:47:20,856 --> 00:47:29,276
suggest something else. Yeah, I agree. So indeed, it is true that if we look at anything,

600
00:47:29,276 --> 00:47:34,696
like where would you want to put money gold is heavily overvalued the stock market is heavily

601
00:47:34,696 --> 00:47:42,516
overvalued but bitcoin is very attractive at these prices and and so um now i don't know how

602
00:47:42,516 --> 00:47:48,076
much money necessarily is now chasing uh like this attractive investment you know because it also

603
00:47:48,076 --> 00:47:54,916
feels risky we had some of the quantum threats there's some uncertainty you know uh and then we

604
00:47:54,916 --> 00:47:59,137
have all this conflict and then gold is actually performing very well bitcoin is not and so

605
00:47:59,137 --> 00:48:03,836
So a bit of loss of confidence, like, oh, is Bitcoin really going to do what it's going to do?

606
00:48:04,076 --> 00:48:07,977
But if you really look at the fundamentals, Bitcoin is actually exactly doing what it's going to do.

607
00:48:08,376 --> 00:48:11,376
And so I'm super optimistic, actually, about Bitcoin, right?

608
00:48:11,436 --> 00:48:14,376
Like, okay, I'm pessimistic about the next couple of months.

609
00:48:15,336 --> 00:48:20,876
I mean, I even think we don't necessarily have to get that lag down.

610
00:48:20,956 --> 00:48:23,477
As I said, there's passive flows, and so maybe we don't.

611
00:48:23,477 --> 00:48:27,556
And also the reason the business cycle is extending,

612
00:48:27,556 --> 00:48:32,137
maybe that also will have an impact on bitcoin and we'll bottom early or this was already the

613
00:48:32,137 --> 00:48:36,956
bottom and we started kind of gradually moving up but if we look at the on-chain charts and for

614
00:48:36,956 --> 00:48:43,696
example in this one we see such a similarity to previous bear markets you know we see these

615
00:48:43,696 --> 00:48:49,916
rat lines like the amount of short amount of profits which is shown here you know we it's

616
00:48:49,916 --> 00:48:56,696
hard to neglect like it looks exactly like a bear market would and and so yeah for me

617
00:48:56,696 --> 00:49:04,177
Unfortunately, also then the probability is the highest that we'll continue exactly as how a bear market usually has functioned in the past.

618
00:49:05,236 --> 00:49:18,516
And yeah, it doesn't sound that attractive, but I think it's also a big opportunity because, you know, we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap SADs and Bitcoin will turn around again.

619
00:49:18,516 --> 00:49:20,637
I mean, Bitcoin is not going to zero.

620
00:49:21,477 --> 00:49:24,776
It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity

621
00:49:24,776 --> 00:49:28,576
and to even live in peace with AI and to be all, you know.

622
00:49:29,016 --> 00:49:33,496
And so I think it's so, Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.

623
00:49:33,596 --> 00:49:37,516
In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth, you know, much more than 200K

624
00:49:37,516 --> 00:49:40,916
and probably will go into the millions.

625
00:49:42,016 --> 00:49:44,256
But yeah, we have to move through this phase.

626
00:49:44,436 --> 00:49:45,536
I mean, hype is gone.

627
00:49:45,536 --> 00:49:46,956
We have seen this every cycle.

628
00:49:46,956 --> 00:49:52,356
you know bitcoin has to form a bottom that takes time there's a time factor to this

629
00:49:52,356 --> 00:49:57,336
and that's so it will take a couple of months and but but yeah those months are an opportunity as

630
00:49:57,336 --> 00:50:04,536
well totally and i think the place where i might have some disagreement with you and to caveat this

631
00:50:04,536 --> 00:50:11,076
you're going off data here i'm going off vibes um and i'm also always ultra bullish is i like it's

632
00:50:11,076 --> 00:50:15,876
clear we're in a bear market no denying that we it's just obvious but what i'm unsure of is why

633
00:50:15,876 --> 00:50:22,236
it has to necessarily rhyme with previous bear markets in this sort of cycle theory. Because

634
00:50:22,236 --> 00:50:27,736
the halving impact is so much smaller than it has been in the past, I just don't know what it is

635
00:50:27,736 --> 00:50:33,336
about the sort of months of the year that mean that Bitcoin has to go down or up. I guess that's

636
00:50:33,336 --> 00:50:40,576
where I'm coming from. Yeah. And we saw this, I mean, getting back to the cycles. I mean,

637
00:50:40,576 --> 00:50:46,117
since the start of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has moved in this four-year cyclical pattern. And of course,

638
00:50:46,196 --> 00:50:52,137
in the beginning, the halving had a huge impact, and that is indeed negligible at this point

639
00:50:52,137 --> 00:51:00,036
in time. But before, we had also an eight-year cycle. So for example, if we look at the 2008

640
00:51:00,036 --> 00:51:06,016
crash, for that to happen, that was an eight-year cycle. And so I wouldn't necessarily rule out that

641
00:51:06,016 --> 00:51:10,236
maybe we get an extended cycle this time as well. Of course, these four-year cycles are

642
00:51:10,236 --> 00:51:16,016
influenced by presidential cycles, which are, you know, based on the four year period. And so all

643
00:51:16,016 --> 00:51:21,396
those dynamics have an effect on the market. And so I'm also totally open to for the cycle to

644
00:51:21,396 --> 00:51:27,356
change. So I'm not saying we will stay within the four year cycle for the next, you know, we will

645
00:51:27,356 --> 00:51:33,716
have that. I'm not saying we will have two more four year cycles and Bitcoin coming up. So I'm

646
00:51:33,716 --> 00:51:40,716
just saying currently we're still exactly in that four-year cycle pattern and and so uh you know

647
00:51:40,716 --> 00:51:45,696
maybe that will change into the future like as i said for example an autumn high this year would

648
00:51:45,696 --> 00:51:50,496
kind of disprove or would prove that we would be moving away from it but currently there's no such

649
00:51:50,496 --> 00:51:55,196
proof yet and so so we have to kind of assume that it will continue now there are some indicators

650
00:51:55,196 --> 00:52:01,576
like the business cycle which you know um maybe are a reason indeed to move away from that this

651
00:52:01,576 --> 00:52:03,456
time around. But

652
00:52:03,456 --> 00:52:05,416
yeah, so far Bitcoin is not

653
00:52:05,416 --> 00:52:07,216
showing any of those trades yet.

654
00:52:07,576 --> 00:52:09,477
We're actually at bear market lows

655
00:52:09,477 --> 00:52:11,637
which we have every cycle

656
00:52:11,637 --> 00:52:12,876
around that midterms

657
00:52:12,876 --> 00:52:15,356
year. But I also think

658
00:52:15,356 --> 00:52:17,617
an eight year cycle is possible into the future.

659
00:52:18,396 --> 00:52:19,456
Dynamics are definitely

660
00:52:19,456 --> 00:52:21,677
changing. It feels like so much

661
00:52:21,677 --> 00:52:23,576
is going on in the world with Trump now

662
00:52:23,576 --> 00:52:25,356
and so maybe

663
00:52:25,356 --> 00:52:27,796
the dynamics of markets will change

664
00:52:27,796 --> 00:52:28,876
and will be extended.

665
00:52:29,716 --> 00:52:31,096
Yeah, that's fair enough.

666
00:52:31,576 --> 00:52:36,156
Yeah, that would just mean like a bit more reduced bear market,

667
00:52:36,276 --> 00:52:38,176
like maybe then the low is in, as I said,

668
00:52:38,236 --> 00:52:40,536
and we could kind of start gradually moving up from here.

669
00:52:41,556 --> 00:52:43,596
So I think that's entirely possible.

670
00:52:44,876 --> 00:52:46,617
Fair, and only time will tell, I guess.

671
00:52:46,776 --> 00:52:48,076
Okay, next chart.

672
00:52:48,156 --> 00:52:48,916
What have we got next?

673
00:52:50,236 --> 00:52:51,676
These are a little different to normal route.

674
00:52:51,796 --> 00:52:52,456
I'm enjoying it.

675
00:52:53,436 --> 00:52:54,637
Okay, great, great.

676
00:52:54,716 --> 00:52:55,796
We've not had the spiral yet.

677
00:52:57,076 --> 00:52:59,416
No, I didn't include a spiral chart yet,

678
00:52:59,416 --> 00:53:04,856
but uh i mean i mean you want to look at the spiral i can open i can open one if you want but

679
00:53:04,856 --> 00:53:10,776
uh it these these are great charts as well they uh they represent the the cyclical behavior in

680
00:53:10,776 --> 00:53:29,224
bitcoin for example here we are looking at the on value map um and and this very interesting in my opinion so we we didn really reach those heavy overvalue levels which you see here like that red line in the top the red band but and so maybe also we won reach

681
00:53:29,224 --> 00:53:35,264
those heavy undervalue levels and here again we see there is still room for another leg down and

682
00:53:35,264 --> 00:53:40,544
then so that's what again another reason why I say okay we cannot necessarily rule out that we'll

683
00:53:40,544 --> 00:53:44,664
have another leg down. But I think if we do, that will also be kind of the final nail in the coffin.

684
00:53:44,804 --> 00:53:49,684
And then we kind of move up from here. And so basically, we have six months to do just that.

685
00:53:50,204 --> 00:53:55,524
Now, maybe it doesn't come again, because of passive flows. I actually hope it won't. It would

686
00:53:55,524 --> 00:54:00,784
be great. That would be exciting for the future as well. Bitcoin is changing. But if we do,

687
00:54:01,024 --> 00:54:06,724
it feels very much similar to historic patterns. So as much as I want to see Bitcoin go up,

688
00:54:06,724 --> 00:54:13,604
I'd take the opportunity to buy 45k Bitcoin. So this is actually the level that I also

689
00:54:13,604 --> 00:54:20,124
probably will move some funds back in. It will just be too cheap to leave. I mean,

690
00:54:20,164 --> 00:54:25,644
it's like a COVID opportunity, you know, like we literally saw here COVID dropping to the heavy

691
00:54:25,644 --> 00:54:30,704
undervalued levels. I mean, it becomes too attractive to buy at such levels. So I also,

692
00:54:31,044 --> 00:54:34,624
I think, yeah, if we would drop there, I would become a buyer as well.

693
00:54:34,624 --> 00:54:41,224
yeah the covid diff is my proudest buy i think because that's that was a terrifying time i i if

694
00:54:41,224 --> 00:54:45,004
we saw anything like that ever again i'm just going to be selling everything i possibly can

695
00:54:45,004 --> 00:54:52,345
yeah yeah and currently we're having a bit of issues similar to covid like with now for example

696
00:54:52,345 --> 00:54:58,084
the energy supply shock 20 of world's energy is going to the straight from us so so that that is

697
00:54:58,084 --> 00:55:03,544
you know i i don't know um so far it hasn't been like bitcoin has been moving up and been stable

698
00:55:03,544 --> 00:55:10,904
but uh yeah i i don't know i will uh we'll we'll see how this conflict will evolve over the next

699
00:55:10,904 --> 00:55:17,544
couple of months yeah that's the sell your chairs to buy bitcoin kind of opportunity um cool this i

700
00:55:17,544 --> 00:55:25,024
mean the the funny thing is like this this is the bear market that has least affected me sort of in

701
00:55:25,024 --> 00:55:29,024
an emotional sense and that just could be that i've been through these before but you know the

702
00:55:29,024 --> 00:55:33,404
The numbers we talk about in terms of percentage up, percentage down are just, they're a joke now.

703
00:55:33,845 --> 00:55:35,484
Where's the 80% drawdown gone?

704
00:55:35,664 --> 00:55:36,184
This is nothing.

705
00:55:37,084 --> 00:55:40,984
Yeah, it's very unlikely to get to a 70% drawdown even.

706
00:55:41,365 --> 00:55:44,484
And I've shared that with my followers.

707
00:55:44,624 --> 00:55:50,064
I've shared some charts and we actually looked at drawdowns and levels that likely we'd get to.

708
00:55:50,104 --> 00:55:53,825
And actually, we'll get to some of those levels in the next couple of charts.

709
00:55:53,825 --> 00:55:57,564
I actually made some charts to look really at

710
00:55:57,564 --> 00:55:59,664
what that bot information looks like

711
00:55:59,664 --> 00:56:02,744
and then again I'm saying that

712
00:56:02,744 --> 00:56:05,024
we don't have to get there but this is kind of

713
00:56:05,024 --> 00:56:08,564
I think it's a good thing to kind of assume that we might get there

714
00:56:08,564 --> 00:56:12,024
and if we don't it will only be good

715
00:56:12,024 --> 00:56:14,984
but yeah I think

716
00:56:14,984 --> 00:56:17,124
a 70% drawdown is very unlikely

717
00:56:17,124 --> 00:56:19,164
we have some on-chain levels

718
00:56:19,164 --> 00:56:22,845
and this has to do also of course because we didn't have a blow of top

719
00:56:22,845 --> 00:56:27,764
Because we had such a distributed top, we didn't even reach those heavy overvalue levels.

720
00:56:28,304 --> 00:56:33,624
So also, as a consequence, the percentage drawdown is mild.

721
00:56:34,164 --> 00:56:42,404
Yeah, I think the thing we've missed in this is that you spoke about all the retail FOMO in gold and in AI stocks, but also treasury companies.

722
00:56:42,624 --> 00:56:46,664
So many people were just FOMOing into treasury companies, whereas previously they might have bought Bitcoin.

723
00:56:46,804 --> 00:56:49,124
I think that definitely had a dampening effect on the upside.

724
00:56:50,124 --> 00:56:52,325
Yeah, that's actually a great point that you mentioned.

725
00:56:52,325 --> 00:56:56,084
So I actually recently explained that as well with my followers.

726
00:56:56,644 --> 00:56:59,264
So this was actually like,

727
00:56:59,384 --> 00:57:01,404
maybe we can talk a bit about the differences

728
00:57:01,404 --> 00:57:04,345
from this bull market to previous cycles.

729
00:57:05,944 --> 00:57:09,464
So we saw a lot of gradual institutional adoption.

730
00:57:09,684 --> 00:57:15,345
And so instead of some of that money flowing to spot exchanges,

731
00:57:15,804 --> 00:57:18,244
and have an effect on spot price,

732
00:57:18,244 --> 00:57:24,644
we actually saw money flowing to indeed treasury companies for example and then we had

733
00:57:24,644 --> 00:57:35,024
buys from sailor but those buys are like most likely true otc desks and so they try to kind of

734
00:57:35,024 --> 00:57:41,864
like have a minimum impact on price you know like how can we acquire bitcoin and and and you know

735
00:57:41,864 --> 00:57:47,784
because if you start like buying spot bitcoin like 17 000 bitcoin or something whatever

736
00:57:47,784 --> 00:57:53,284
you know if you buy that spot it will have like a huge impact temporarily on spot price so you

737
00:57:53,284 --> 00:57:57,845
yourself right if you're buying like so so you want to make these deals OTC and this this is

738
00:57:57,845 --> 00:58:05,204
actually what ETFs do and with in-kind redemptions and and also you know treasury companies and so

739
00:58:05,204 --> 00:58:12,204
in a way so with this gradual institutional like gradual money flowing into Bitcoin through

740
00:58:12,204 --> 00:58:20,484
institutions also means indeed that many of those Bitcoins were bought OTC. And so there are OGs out

741
00:58:20,484 --> 00:58:26,724
there with thousands of Bitcoin, and they're happy to take some profit. But yes, and they sell often

742
00:58:26,724 --> 00:58:35,924
through these OTC desks. And so this was probably the, you know, in this cycle, the least impactful

743
00:58:35,924 --> 00:58:41,724
on spot price. And we also see that, I mean, we had a very distributed price, very distributed

744
00:58:41,724 --> 00:58:49,804
price action. Nothing of the like that we saw in 2017, which was very hype-driven, retail hype-driven,

745
00:58:49,924 --> 00:58:54,325
very spot-driven market. This market was much less spot-driven.

746
00:58:55,444 --> 00:58:59,764
Yeah. And I guess if you're buying on the spot markets, then you start liquidating shorts,

747
00:58:59,764 --> 00:59:03,804
and then you have the volatile moves up, and Bitcoin has to figure out if it can actually

748
00:59:03,804 --> 00:59:08,704
sustain the price. And so that volatility was all taken out of the market because of the OTC desk,

749
00:59:08,704 --> 00:59:09,624
is what you're saying, I think.

750
00:59:10,845 --> 00:59:13,084
Yeah, so a lot of that spot action,

751
00:59:13,284 --> 00:59:15,864
which indeed has much more effect on Bitcoin's price,

752
00:59:15,864 --> 00:59:20,944
was now reduced because of indeed OTC buys by ETFs.

753
00:59:21,184 --> 00:59:23,464
And ETFs were one of the key drivers

754
00:59:23,464 --> 00:59:25,984
and treasury companies of this bull market.

755
00:59:26,504 --> 00:59:29,504
And so I think, therefore,

756
00:59:30,004 --> 00:59:33,784
also we have seen such reduced price action

757
00:59:33,784 --> 00:59:34,624
like to the upside.

758
00:59:36,345 --> 00:59:37,764
Yeah, that makes sense.

759
00:59:38,704 --> 00:59:40,544
All right. What else have you got for us, Ru?

760
00:59:41,244 --> 00:59:44,244
Yeah, maybe we can go a bit into that bottom formation.

761
00:59:44,624 --> 00:59:46,364
So we already looked at this chart.

762
00:59:46,845 --> 00:59:51,524
So this is basically comparing the current drop to the June 2022 drop.

763
00:59:52,064 --> 00:59:54,624
And so what we look at here, actually, we're going to start combining

764
00:59:54,624 --> 00:59:57,984
some of these key on-chain metrics that I already introduced.

765
00:59:58,524 --> 01:00:01,164
So here we're looking at the short-term holder floor,

766
01:00:01,164 --> 01:00:07,345
which is actually this level of that short-term holder,

767
01:00:07,345 --> 01:00:09,104
based on the short-term holder cost basis.

768
01:00:09,304 --> 01:00:11,084
So how much of a loss,

769
01:00:11,345 --> 01:00:12,664
like what is the maximum loss

770
01:00:12,664 --> 01:00:14,084
that short-term holders can sustain?

771
01:00:14,224 --> 01:00:16,284
Basically, that's the short-term holder floor level.

772
01:00:16,664 --> 01:00:18,164
And then we have the realized price,

773
01:00:18,284 --> 01:00:20,464
which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.

774
01:00:21,124 --> 01:00:24,384
And so we just now had the cross

775
01:00:24,384 --> 01:00:25,644
of the short-term holder floor

776
01:00:25,644 --> 01:00:27,524
falling below that realized price.

777
01:00:27,845 --> 01:00:30,024
And if we look where that historically happens,

778
01:00:30,704 --> 01:00:32,364
that was around June 22.

779
01:00:33,004 --> 01:00:35,924
And so we're like very much

780
01:00:35,924 --> 01:00:38,325
the current drop in terms of

781
01:00:38,325 --> 01:00:39,224
capitulation.

782
01:00:40,204 --> 01:00:42,104
So if we look at capitulation in Bitcoin terms

783
01:00:42,104 --> 01:00:44,244
and compare that to previous

784
01:00:44,244 --> 01:00:46,144
bear markets, it very much looks like

785
01:00:46,144 --> 01:00:47,384
this June 22 event.

786
01:00:47,984 --> 01:00:50,164
If we look at the short molar floor versus realized

787
01:00:50,164 --> 01:00:52,304
price, it very much looks like the June 22

788
01:00:52,304 --> 01:00:54,264
event. And then we can

789
01:00:54,264 --> 01:00:56,264
introduce actually some more metrics.

790
01:00:56,624 --> 01:00:57,444
So here

791
01:00:57,444 --> 01:01:00,164
this is actually the low of the on-chain

792
01:01:00,164 --> 01:01:02,244
value map. The on-chain value map

793
01:01:02,244 --> 01:01:03,704
low is based on

794
01:01:03,704 --> 01:01:11,364
one of my custom implementations of coin value days destroyed which was originally a metric that

795
01:01:11,364 --> 01:01:17,524
willy woo came up with but it has been very accurate in in actually setting like a floor

796
01:01:17,524 --> 01:01:22,964
for the entire market and the interesting thing about this metric is that it never moves down

797
01:01:22,964 --> 01:01:28,684
so where we looked at short and molar floor that you know those bands they move up and down

798
01:01:28,684 --> 01:01:35,584
but this coin value days destroy level only moves up and so uh so so that sets the floor and that's

799
01:01:35,584 --> 01:01:42,084
currently i think around nearly at 45k as well and so that will keep on moving up towards like

800
01:01:42,084 --> 01:01:46,424
in the next couple of months and so it's very likely that maybe like these these high 40s are

801
01:01:46,424 --> 01:01:53,544
still within the cards um but i don't think we'll move much lower and then as i said again um you

802
01:01:53,544 --> 01:02:00,024
falling in repetition here but these passive flows you know might be a key reason why we

803
01:02:00,024 --> 01:02:04,904
won't even get there but uh we still have to assume that we might you know there's there's

804
01:02:04,904 --> 01:02:12,984
this probability out there so um and then uh so so what what i actually defined this period that

805
01:02:12,984 --> 01:02:18,664
we're currently in is the bottom formation so those are highlighted here by those uh red bars

806
01:02:18,664 --> 01:02:28,845
So this is actually when the realized price moves in between or when the short term flow moves in between the realized price and those coin value destroy levels.

807
01:02:29,345 --> 01:02:38,064
Because we see that we actually, the short term flow moves lower than Bitcoin eventually will.

808
01:02:38,624 --> 01:02:46,825
Because, you know, Bitcoin starts moving, start actually moving towards that short term flow cost basis again and tries to get back above it in bull territory.

809
01:02:46,825 --> 01:02:50,764
but the bands still, they move much lower.

810
01:02:51,524 --> 01:02:54,744
And so the short molar floor is a great level to see like,

811
01:02:54,825 --> 01:02:57,044
okay, we're currently at heavy undervalue levels.

812
01:02:57,484 --> 01:03:00,044
You know, like we saw with COVID, for example,

813
01:03:00,104 --> 01:03:01,424
we dropped to that short molar floor.

814
01:03:01,564 --> 01:03:04,184
That's a level that you absolutely don't want to buy at actually.

815
01:03:04,384 --> 01:03:08,064
It's a short-term floor for Bitcoin.

816
01:03:08,484 --> 01:03:11,644
But the eventual floor of the bear market might be lower

817
01:03:11,644 --> 01:03:15,524
and historically has reached like levels of coin value days destroyed,

818
01:03:15,524 --> 01:03:18,404
which we see here in this chart as well.

819
01:03:18,544 --> 01:03:20,744
And so we're currently at the stage

820
01:03:20,744 --> 01:03:22,084
where the short model floor moved

821
01:03:22,084 --> 01:03:23,464
between the realized price

822
01:03:23,464 --> 01:03:25,864
and that coin value is the destroy level.

823
01:03:26,325 --> 01:03:28,704
And for me, that is the period of bottom formation.

824
01:03:28,884 --> 01:03:30,804
Now, historically, we see that,

825
01:03:30,984 --> 01:03:32,644
like, yeah, that takes a couple of months.

826
01:03:33,224 --> 01:03:36,644
And so, you know, we're now one month in,

827
01:03:36,704 --> 01:03:39,304
basically, since the February 5th drop.

828
01:03:39,804 --> 01:03:41,784
And so we still have a couple of more months

829
01:03:41,784 --> 01:03:45,044
to, you know, be in this bottom formation stage.

830
01:03:45,524 --> 01:03:48,345
before we kind of move back up.

831
01:03:49,024 --> 01:03:51,724
It's time to take the opportunity to get some cheap sats.

832
01:03:52,104 --> 01:03:55,004
Who knows if he'll go lower, but this is good value right now.

833
01:03:55,724 --> 01:03:58,984
Roo, we can't do a show with you without the spiral chart.

834
01:03:59,104 --> 01:03:59,984
Come on, let's see it.

835
01:04:01,444 --> 01:04:03,704
All right, let me...

836
01:04:03,704 --> 01:04:05,444
Has that chart broken now?

837
01:04:05,484 --> 01:04:08,464
Because wasn't the idea that the circles were ever expanding?

838
01:04:08,464 --> 01:04:09,984
And have we now crossed?

839
01:04:10,704 --> 01:04:12,204
We have not crossed.

840
01:04:12,204 --> 01:04:19,364
and I also don't think we will cross in the in the next year and a half I think the chances

841
01:04:19,364 --> 01:04:27,804
of crossing are very very low oh okay let's we need to see this chart okay I got it up so this

842
01:04:27,804 --> 01:04:33,984
is the this is the 3d version by the way and so this is actually based on on the on-chain value

843
01:04:33,984 --> 01:04:40,845
map I can't tell where we are now where are we now we're currently here okay oh I see this one

844
01:04:40,845 --> 01:04:42,825
is not completely updated.

845
01:04:44,284 --> 01:04:45,724
I don't know why it stops here.

846
01:04:45,744 --> 01:04:46,584
So we'd have to go down

847
01:04:46,584 --> 01:04:47,845
to the reasonable amount.

848
01:04:47,845 --> 01:04:48,845
We're actually now below

849
01:04:48,845 --> 01:04:49,845
that surface level.

850
01:04:50,124 --> 01:04:52,164
So we moved below.

851
01:04:52,284 --> 01:04:53,124
The surface is actually

852
01:04:53,124 --> 01:04:54,044
the fair value

853
01:04:54,044 --> 01:04:55,064
that we just looked at.

854
01:04:55,345 --> 01:04:57,744
If we looked at the value map,

855
01:04:58,404 --> 01:05:00,825
that green level

856
01:05:00,825 --> 01:05:02,684
was always the fair value

857
01:05:02,684 --> 01:05:03,524
price of Bitcoin.

858
01:05:03,664 --> 01:05:04,524
That is what the surface

859
01:05:04,524 --> 01:05:05,444
represents here.

860
01:05:05,825 --> 01:05:06,744
And then we have periods

861
01:05:06,744 --> 01:05:07,544
of bull markets,

862
01:05:07,544 --> 01:05:08,825
which is, you know,

863
01:05:08,825 --> 01:05:16,325
the entire bull market we were above that surface level and now we move back below the surface

864
01:05:16,325 --> 01:05:21,664
but we'd still have to go a long way down from here for those circles to cross

865
01:05:21,664 --> 01:05:29,984
yeah so so historically we see towards the end of the year that would be and this could be

866
01:05:29,984 --> 01:05:36,004
slightly earlier because we see that that because one one full rotation in that spiral is represents

867
01:05:36,004 --> 01:05:42,325
the period of four years and so um so we see those bottoms uh so for example this was the

868
01:05:43,284 --> 01:05:51,124
the 2018 bottom that happened in uh in december you know the price of 3k uh then we had here the

869
01:05:51,124 --> 01:05:59,284
2022 bottom like 16k let's say it was uh it was in november and so like uh maybe now this time in

870
01:05:59,284 --> 01:06:05,764
october we'll get a bottom that you know the the spiral chart would actually imply that uh and so

871
01:06:05,764 --> 01:06:08,684
So we now moved below the surface already.

872
01:06:08,964 --> 01:06:10,424
I'm not sure why this is not updated.

873
01:06:10,544 --> 01:06:11,524
I need to check, actually.

874
01:06:12,024 --> 01:06:13,404
And I need to look into that.

875
01:06:13,624 --> 01:06:15,944
But we're now below that surface level.

876
01:06:16,424 --> 01:06:18,564
We are below fair value.

877
01:06:19,345 --> 01:06:21,144
And so we're actually a couple months

878
01:06:21,144 --> 01:06:22,584
because this is exactly,

879
01:06:22,845 --> 01:06:26,384
I mean, this one stops here at the end of 2025, I see.

880
01:06:26,464 --> 01:06:28,124
But we're currently already three months in, right?

881
01:06:28,124 --> 01:06:31,544
So we're three months already below that surface level now.

882
01:06:32,404 --> 01:06:34,744
And so we still have a couple of months

883
01:06:34,744 --> 01:06:35,825
to form that bottom.

884
01:06:36,104 --> 01:06:38,864
And this is what the four-year cycle

885
01:06:38,864 --> 01:06:40,144
would look like, you know.

886
01:06:40,304 --> 01:06:43,404
And I mean, so yes, we didn't get to,

887
01:06:43,504 --> 01:06:44,864
we didn't have a blow off top

888
01:06:44,864 --> 01:06:48,284
and we had a bit of like a distributed bull market,

889
01:06:48,284 --> 01:06:51,524
but look at how similar those green dots

890
01:06:51,524 --> 01:06:53,184
were during this whole phase here

891
01:06:53,184 --> 01:06:55,984
compared to previous cycles that we did that,

892
01:06:56,084 --> 01:06:57,924
you know, that looks very similar.

893
01:06:58,144 --> 01:07:00,064
Now here was the halving,

894
01:07:00,224 --> 01:07:01,444
and this was actually the autumn high

895
01:07:01,444 --> 01:07:02,624
before the halving, you know,

896
01:07:02,624 --> 01:07:05,325
the ETF approval, that was like a lot of hype.

897
01:07:05,444 --> 01:07:08,825
That was the first, that was a key difference this cycle.

898
01:07:08,964 --> 01:07:10,144
We had an autumn high before the halving,

899
01:07:10,224 --> 01:07:12,044
but there was a clear catalyst, you know,

900
01:07:12,124 --> 01:07:13,444
big reason why we did.

901
01:07:13,845 --> 01:07:15,404
And so I think that's normal.

902
01:07:15,524 --> 01:07:17,244
So this was the halving.

903
01:07:17,624 --> 01:07:22,644
And so, yeah, what's next is we are now below that surface level.

904
01:07:23,244 --> 01:07:25,004
We form a bottom at some point.

905
01:07:25,204 --> 01:07:26,325
It could be the February low,

906
01:07:26,404 --> 01:07:27,884
but then that red dot would be here,

907
01:07:28,364 --> 01:07:31,444
which is kind of still early on the four-year cycle basis.

908
01:07:31,444 --> 01:07:33,604
It's more likely to happen in the next couple of months.

909
01:07:33,724 --> 01:07:40,524
So potentially another leg down and then start moving back up and, you know, go to the next

910
01:07:40,524 --> 01:07:41,444
halving event.

911
01:07:41,884 --> 01:07:43,184
The spiral chart is intact.

912
01:07:43,644 --> 01:07:44,804
The spiral chart is intact.

913
01:07:44,964 --> 01:07:45,064
Yeah.

914
01:07:45,325 --> 01:07:46,404
Root, this has been amazing.

915
01:07:47,224 --> 01:07:50,004
Anything else you want to go through with us before we close everything out?

916
01:07:50,464 --> 01:07:52,345
No, everything is always about probabilities.

917
01:07:52,684 --> 01:07:57,304
And so I don't claim to know what the future holds.

918
01:07:57,504 --> 01:07:58,325
We will see.

919
01:07:58,444 --> 01:07:59,384
Maybe this time is different.

920
01:07:59,384 --> 01:08:03,864
I'm open to all these scenarios, but it is clear that we are in a bear market.

921
01:08:04,345 --> 01:08:06,564
It's clear that we're undergoing a bottom formation.

922
01:08:07,504 --> 01:08:11,224
Maybe the February 5th was the bottom, but I still think there's another,

923
01:08:12,384 --> 01:08:16,004
like the probabilities are higher that we'll still see one in the next couple of months.

924
01:08:16,685 --> 01:08:18,804
It might be a bit reduced due to passive flows.

925
01:08:20,185 --> 01:08:21,665
And yeah, we'll see from there.

926
01:08:21,765 --> 01:08:26,784
But I'm also up to, I mean, if we start pushing against the short-mortem cost basis

927
01:08:26,784 --> 01:08:28,145
and we move back above it,

928
01:08:28,444 --> 01:08:30,624
I become a bull again, like short-term bull.

929
01:08:30,725 --> 01:08:32,884
I mean, I'm a long-term bull all the time,

930
01:08:33,244 --> 01:08:36,904
but, you know, short-term, we have to be realistic.

931
01:08:37,645 --> 01:08:41,504
And yeah, I think time is a factor in this bear market.

932
01:08:41,924 --> 01:08:43,484
We need to go through.

933
01:08:43,484 --> 01:08:45,504
So my message would be, you know,

934
01:08:45,524 --> 01:08:47,984
if you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months

935
01:08:47,984 --> 01:08:49,984
and that will be rewarded.

936
01:08:51,424 --> 01:08:51,944
Have patience.

937
01:08:51,944 --> 01:08:54,784
If you've got any cashflow, double, triple the DCAs.

938
01:08:55,205 --> 01:08:56,584
This is the opportunity now.

939
01:08:56,784 --> 01:08:58,744
And Ruud, thank you so much, man.

940
01:08:59,084 --> 01:09:01,044
Where can people go to find out more about your work?

941
01:09:02,165 --> 01:09:06,205
Yeah, so you can go to BitcoinStrategyPlatform.com

942
01:09:06,205 --> 01:09:08,464
or subscribe to my newsletter,

943
01:09:08,705 --> 01:09:11,205
which is BitcoinStrategy.Substack.com.

944
01:09:11,484 --> 01:09:14,864
And you can, of course, follow me on Twitter

945
01:09:14,864 --> 01:09:17,004
and Noster as at TheRationalRuud.

946
01:09:18,324 --> 01:09:20,165
And, you know, if you follow me,

947
01:09:20,864 --> 01:09:22,484
you know, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

948
01:09:22,744 --> 01:09:25,384
You will get access to all the live charts

949
01:09:25,384 --> 01:09:28,364
and I will actually give you more info

950
01:09:28,364 --> 01:09:30,265
and I'll go through you together

951
01:09:30,265 --> 01:09:33,685
to kind of dissect this bear market

952
01:09:33,685 --> 01:09:37,444
and where to enter exactly around that bottom area.

953
01:09:38,624 --> 01:09:39,105
Awesome.

954
01:09:39,364 --> 01:09:40,044
Thank you, man.

955
01:09:40,124 --> 01:09:41,185
I will speak to you soon.

956
01:09:41,544 --> 01:09:42,544
I'll probably see you in Vegas.

957
01:09:42,844 --> 01:09:44,685
Do you want to make a bet on the price by Vegas?

958
01:09:48,804 --> 01:09:50,244
Higher or lower than today?

959
01:09:53,185 --> 01:09:55,344
Vegas, wait, that's already next month.

960
01:09:55,384 --> 01:10:00,984
actually i think vegas might be still higher than today oh that means i've got to take the under

961
01:10:00,984 --> 01:10:07,344
i can't be bearish because i i think we're gonna you know potentially we'll we'll might be

962
01:10:07,344 --> 01:10:12,705
like around that short term holder cost basis level uh during vegas and so we could potentially

963
01:10:12,705 --> 01:10:18,404
like you know uh move back above it but i think there's still a chance that we'll reject off it

964
01:10:18,404 --> 01:10:25,225
and then get that get set to low in after so so but the only uh the only price information that's

965
01:10:25,225 --> 01:10:28,944
more accurate in the four-year cycle is that Bitcoin always tanks around the conference.

966
01:10:30,265 --> 01:10:35,424
Yeah, exactly. So maybe, you know, there's this potential to reach the short model cost basis,

967
01:10:35,504 --> 01:10:40,344
and then we reject right at the conference. Well, I can't take the under. I'm too bullish

968
01:10:40,344 --> 01:10:43,864
for that. So we'll just have to wait and see. But thank you, man. I will see you out in Vegas.

969
01:10:44,225 --> 01:10:46,784
I'll catch you soon. Thank you, Danny. See you in Vegas.

970
01:10:55,225 --> 01:11:25,204
Thank you.