I think setting in a new all-time high this year would definitely be a reason to assume that we're moving away from the four-year pattern.
It's a big opportunity because we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap sats and Bitcoin will turn around again.
I mean, Bitcoin is not going to zero.
It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity and to even live in peace with AI.
and Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.
In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K
and probably will go into the millions.
If you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months
and that will be rewarded.
The rational route, the big carrot, you are back.
Welcome back on the show, man.
Thank you so much for having me, Danny.
We've got a lot to talk about today.
The world is going pretty fucking crazy at the moment.
And the most interesting thing to me over the last week or two is that while, you know, the US is at war with Iran, the S&P is down, even gold's down, silver's down a bit and Bitcoin's up.
What's different?
Yeah, so I think, I mean, Bitcoin obviously had a big crash beforehand.
And so I think the news of the war was not really a reason anymore to go lower, which actually is a very positive thing, right?
Because Bitcoin is all about fear and greed.
And so, you know, all these conflicts in the world, they create fear in the market.
And that affects price action or it affects people's behavior, right?
And so the fact that we actually had a war coming out with Iran and it didn't do much to Bitcoin shows that we're fairly long route in that bottom formation, let's say.
I mean, there might still be a reason to go slightly lower and I'll explain with some charts why I think that might be the case.
We don't have to get there.
But this is a positive thing.
We had this, like, on the 5th of February, we had, of course, a heavy leg down.
And Bitcoin is already at very undervalued levels.
If you look at, you know, many on-chain metrics, you know, Bitcoin is heavy undervalued.
But it doesn't mean that we cannot go lower.
I mean, usually in bear markets, time is also important.
You know, like, it just takes sometimes a couple of months to form that bottom.
And so I don't know if we'll get another leg down.
But I do think we still have a couple of months to go before we really go back up again and go into the hundreds and so forth.
Yeah, I mean, I know that we obviously had gone down a lot before this, but normally when there's a big geopolitical event, especially they always seem to happen when markets are closed, which again happened this time with the Iran war.
Bitcoin normally falls off a cliff.
And this time it was, I think it was up on the day of the actual, the start of the Iran war.
And it's even higher today.
today. Do you think that this is just because we'd had a big leg down, there was no more sellers at
that point? Or do you think there's people waking up to Bitcoin as an idea? And I mean, we know a lot
of people are trying to get out of the Middle East as quickly as possible and probably take as much
with them as possible. And we know Bitcoin is the best thing for that. How much of this do you think
is a narrative shift rather than just like we were already down a lot and Bitcoin didn't really want
to go down further? Well, I think mainly because we had like a big crash beforehand. That was a
reason why Bitcoin didn't drop any lower, even though we had another catalyst, because we already
had had several catalysts. We had a couple of, we had a war each month. And so, you know, another war,
okay, like, you know, it didn't affect Bitcoin as much. But there's some truth to like, okay,
people in Iran using Bitcoin and stable coins for that matter, probably maybe as much stable coins,
because, you know, the value is slightly more stable. And if you're in a war, you don't want
to really deal with volatility as much. So I think that does play a role. I mean, I literally
met people from Ukraine who escaped Ukraine on Bitcoin and were able to start a life in Europe
with their Bitcoin, taking their value across borders. And so I think some of that might happen
in Iran as well. I'm sure people in Iran are aware of the value proposition of Bitcoin,
but then dealing with volatility in times of war and uncertainty is a reason to use stable coins as
well. Now, I'm not sure what the reasons are for the war. I'm not a macro expert, but I'm happy to
give some of my takes. This conflict, again, one of many this year. We saw Venezuela before,
Now we see Iran. I think Trump is doing everything he can to keep the economy up before the midterms. So I'm not sure if like, I'm sure he wants this war to be over before the midterms, but I don't know if that's going to happen. I think maybe things are not going his way. And then I don't know how much Israel, I mean, Israel is obviously heavily involved. And I don't know how much that has to do with Trump. You know, I'm also not really going to speculate about that.
But stablecoin uses is a very interesting factor for Trump, because stablecoin uses is a demand for government bonds. And so that is needed. And so maybe a key factor also that contributes to the start of this war.
And so we will see how this turns out.
I don't know.
Historically, the midterms are obviously generally a bad year for markets in general.
So we see usually a stock market crash around the midterms plus Bitcoin.
And Bitcoin is usually early.
I have a chart on that.
Yeah, that's interesting because you'd have thought that going into the midterms,
whoever's at the seat of power would want to have the markets pumping as much as possible.
Yeah, so this one is specifically on the midterm cycles, midterm elections. And you can see that more or less around every midterm, Bitcoin makes a low. And currently we're at these. So this is actually the yearly RSI that we're looking at for Bitcoin in orange and the yearly RSI for the S&P 500 in light blue. And then we have the business cycle in dark blue.
and so coming out of COVID we had a bit of a you know a bit of an after effect of COVID in terms of
the business cycle so we yeah instead of going up steeply we were kind of like at these values
below 50 which actually means a bit of a recessionary a recessionary environment and
that took longer than usual and so there was you know this question are cycles shifting are cycles
extending. But what we see now with Bitcoin is that Bitcoin is actually exactly following the
four-year cycle. And so we're at these very low values, like below 45, which is historically where
we find those bear market bottoms. And the S&P is actually rolling over. And so I don't know if
it's going to crash before the midterms. I'm sure Trump doesn't want markets to crash, so he's doing
everything in his power. But I don't know who is in control of this war, if it's Israel or
Trump, you know, it seems to be that Israel has a lot of power, a big stake in this as
well.
And so I don't know how much influence Trump really has.
And then, you know, this war is definitely affecting the economy.
If we think of the, you know, the Strait of Hormuz, that is, you know, a big impact.
It's a bit similar to the COVID supply shock that we had, but then for energy, right?
And so that will for sure have a big impact on markets.
And I'm sure that's not what Trump actually wants, especially not before the midterms.
And so I don't know if he's able to resolve these things in the next couple of months, then it could have a positive effect still on the midterms.
But if it doesn't, we could actually see markets crash maybe before the midterms, which historically has been many times the case.
Whatever the catalyst was in the past, there are clearly catalysts for this time around.
and like bitcoin obviously tracks the nasdaq pretty closely do you think if there was a broader
market crash bitcoin would go with it um i think i mean bitcoin already is at heavy undervalue levels
and so maybe that would be like the the final uh nail in the coffin let's say like you that we have
this you know the capitulation event we could have another capitulation event that brings us to you
know one more leg down uh so so that would definitely be an option but i don't think
it will drag bitcoin down much further i think it will be more like covet you know you have
initially like maybe a crash a bit of a capital a capitulation event and then you know bitcoin can
shoot up again uh so so i think i mean forming this bottom will still take a couple of months
in my opinion i mean historically it has in the four-year cycle and um yeah it everything just
looks like we're still in the four-year cycle. And I know some of the dynamics are shifting,
like the ISM PMI, the business cycle, which we show here in dark blue in this chart,
had a longer time and it seems like it is extending. And that might still be the case,
but Bitcoin has followed the exact path. If we look at on-chain indicators, we actually see so
many similarities with previous cycles that the probability is just the highest that Bitcoin will
just take a couple of months to form a bottom and then we kind of like have this slow grind up
and because hype is a way hype is not in in in bitcoin's market currently definitely not you know
we of course have a big hotler group which is here you know we you know the bitcoin maximalists are
are here you know they will they always are but uh there's not not a lot of new people uh coming in
to bitcoin at this moment and you know a lot of that hype of that mindshare has been taken away
by AI and gold.
So I have the chart on gold as well.
So if we look at gold versus Bitcoin,
I mean, gold had its 50-year run, right?
Since the start of the fiat system,
gold now is at RSI levels.
We're still looking at RSI in this chart.
Gold reached an RSI of 96,
which historically has been
the top of the bull markets
in previous cycles.
And so gold position currently is also not sustainable,
although we could see like a double peak,
which we also saw in Bitcoin many times.
You know, you could stay at these high 90 range
for a couple of months.
So I think that's very likely for gold to happen as well.
Gold could still go higher.
But Bitcoin, at the other hand, is really forming a low.
And Bitcoin is really showing a different behavior than gold.
You know, Bitcoin is not really,
like even though with this war, yes,
We had an uptick in price, you know, even, but I don't think, and some, I mean, some people are using Bitcoin even as a safe haven in Iran.
That is true.
But I think that's such a small piece of the market, you know, of the global market that Bitcoin has.
So Bitcoin really is still much more heavily correlated to risk on assets and not so much a safe haven.
But Bitcoin is very liquidity driven.
And so Bitcoin, in my opinion, will never really behave like digital gold or like the analog gold. Bitcoin is really, yeah, I've said this before, it's more about optimism and tech and really solving the monetary issues in the world where gold is a bit of like, it always has this negative connotation.
It's always about an escape for war.
And so then we go back to the old metal, let's say, that instead of thinking of new tech and living in a digital world, people go to use gold as a safe haven.
So I think Bitcoin in the near future will not really start behaving like a safe haven.
It will still be heavily treated as a tech asset, let's say.
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coverage, visit anchorwatch.com today. That's anchorwatch.com. Yeah, I mean, you said there
that Bitcoin, there's no hype around the Bitcoin market at the moment, which is definitely true.
Like sentiment is almost as low as it gets, it seems. But I don't even think we had that much
hype in the last bull market. Like when Bitcoin was above 100k, there wasn't that much hype,
not like previous cycles. It feels like you have to go back to really like the launch of the ETFs
to get any kind of real hype around this.
Do you think that is coming back
or do you think the sort of makeup
of the Bitcoin market,
the people that are involved,
the people that can actually move the price
has changed to the point where
sort of retail FOMO doesn't really matter anymore?
I'm sure we'll still get a phase of retail FOMO
at some time in the future,
but it is true that this cycle
has been much more about institutions getting involved
and not so much retail.
And I think so, so what happened is actually, so 90% of, or even 95% of the Bitcoin supply is mined, right? We have currently 20 million coins in circulation since this week, by the way. So still the final million will be mined in the next 100 years.
and so that is in in hands of basically retail like most of it you know and and this cycle was
about that transition from retail to institutions and um i mean some of these institutions also
represents retail again indirectly with which you know which we see with etfs but there's also
many institutions getting involved and and there's we're still at the beginning of that but this is
actually what we want for bitcoin adoption to happen you know like we cannot not have institutions
adopting Bitcoin and become the world reserve asset, right? That's impossible. Institutions
are built out of people. And so if Bitcoin gets the world adoption, we naturally need actually
institutions to come into space. I mean, I would brush water, see Gen Z totally interested in
Bitcoin and coming into the space, but they're not at the age, like some are starting, but they're
not really at the age of where they start thinking about pension and savings as much. And so I think
what mainly happened is that in the past 10 or 15 years, like much of retail, like the people that
would become interested in Bitcoin have had the chance, you know, we've had several hype cycles,
you know, for people to be waking up to Bitcoin and or to hear about Bitcoin. And so if you're
not in Bitcoin after these 15 years, you know, it's unlikely that you will also get into it in
the next 10 years or so.
Um, and so, so I, I think what we now see institutional adoption is actually a great
step forward.
This is what we want.
Uh, we now have BlackRock behind, behind Bitcoin.
Uh you know we have the strategic Bitcoin reserves and um yeah some of it of course is is not as good as it as it sounds I mean I don Trump Trump is not really a Bitcoiner You know he did this for you know he was basically bought off to have this
But his sons are very interested in Bitcoin, obviously.
And so they have had banking issues in the past.
And so they at least understand some of the value proposition of Bitcoin.
And so I think regulation is getting, you know, much better in the US.
so I think also it's going to be possible soon to get you know like to borrow against your bitcoin
so which will reduce sell pressure also from from retail but in my opinion yeah we're really in this
IPO phase where you know basically the people that bet on bitcoin in the past 15 years were right and
so they they have made they have made a lot of gains and so we're now in a transition phase where
some of that money flows to institutions and I think that's totally natural that's actually
it's the success of Bitcoin.
And so it might seem like,
oh, you know, less retail is coming into Bitcoin.
And so that's a bad thing.
But we actually see like really observable
institutional adoption.
And that is what we want to see.
And I think that will continue into the next cycles.
And so I think, you know,
we're currently at price levels
that are not as attractive to sell as a hotler.
But I think the 100K was really a psychological level,
just like 10K.
We took a long time to surpass that 10K level.
And I think for 100K, we need to go through a similar phase where we have seen actually
a lot of self-pressure from the Hottler cohort.
Yeah.
Institutions need to get Bitcoin.
Just don't give them your Bitcoin.
You've talked about the four-year cycle, and this has been a big question to me.
I was on the wrong side of this in the sense that I thought this time was going to be different.
I still think it potentially could be.
But what do you think is actually driving the four-year cycle if it's still intact?
Because we know the impact of supply issuance is getting to the point where it's negligible.
Whether it is now or not, it's probably debatable.
But what do you think is actually driving this?
Yeah, so I think there's still a lot of psychology around it.
Bitcoin has historically only moved in this four-year cycle pattern.
And so it's expectations that also set these dynamics.
And I think it also, you know, there's these catalysts that have an effect on Bitcoin and events that happen in the world. And I think we've had a lot of distraction this cycle. I mean, we had institutions come into space. And as you said correctly, the most hype we've had was actually institutional hype, like before or right around that ETF approval.
and and so that was the the maximum hype we've seen in this entire bull market and then it started
like slowly fading fading away a bit um so what what i think is the the main driver of the four
year cycle is that um since since you know a lot of mindshare went to ai and and and actually uh
you know there is a lot of value in ai i mean it's really going to change the world uh so it's
it's understandable that, you know, some of that mindshare got taken away. And then we had gold,
like on a run, you know, not seen in 50 years, basically. And so, you know, a lot of hype went
to other markets. And this actually took away a bit the hype from Bitcoin's market. And that,
I think, contributed to the fact that we now got to the lows that we are currently at.
so you think the reason the cycle's intact still is because of basically it being a self-fulfilling
prophecy and because it's happened in the past people think it's going to happen again in the
future and therefore sell coins you know come the end of the year so i think indeed expectations
from previous cycle dynamics played a key role but i also think that um like for some reason i mean
the timing of hype around AI and gold happened at the exact moment in the four-year cycle,
such that, you know, the hype was taken away from Bitcoin. And then so Bitcoin started dropping,
and then it became a bit of this self-fulfilling prophecy, like that we again, you know, we're in
time-wise, we're again at that stage where, you know, Bitcoin should move into a bear market.
And then we had actually key reasons to do so, which, you know, mainly, for example, hype being
taking away by other markets. So what would have to happen for you to say, yeah, the cycle is
broken? Like if Bitcoin got back above 100k close to all time highs in the next, like, say, six to
nine months, would that would that to you feel like the cycle is actually broken then? Not really,
because we already are actually at substantial bear market levels currently. Now, I don't know
how low we'll go. Actually, I think so. I think it's still the probability is the highest that
it will still take a couple of months to form this bottom. But we do see passive flows moving
into Bitcoin from these treasury companies like Saylor keeps buying on a weekly basis or so.
And so those passive flows that move into Bitcoin also will suppress a bit of the downside.
And so we don't have to go as low this cycle, just as we didn't go as high this cycle,
because we had more gradual institutional adoption
rather than very hype-driven retail hype in the cycle.
And so I think it's possible to still hoover around
these lower levels for the next couple of months.
And possibly we get a leg down,
and it depends on some of these macro circumstances
and catalysts.
And a bit also, if Bitcoin doesn't move anywhere,
you know patience you know kind of dries up with the hotter cohort and so some some might there
might be another capitalization event be needed before we really set in the low and then we can
start it gradually move up but so like bull and bear cycles are always going to happen but what
like what has to happen to break out of this four-year cycle for you like if we got new all-time
highs this year would that say the four-year cycle is not real like i want to know what it would be
that would make you go okay that's now not the case like we obviously always going to have bull
and bear markets. But how does it break that sort of psychology around the four-year cycle?
I think setting in a new autumn high this year would definitely be a reason to assume that we're
moving away from the four-year pattern. Now, we're basically at lows, and you can see it in this
RSI chart. We're at lows of similar to previous bear market bottoms. And so, yeah, we haven't seen
a 70-80% drop yet, but that is because we never had this blow off top. We had the most distributed
cycle so far. And so we don't have to go as low to get to these bear market levels. So I think we
already are at substantial bear market levels. Time-wise, there's still a couple of months
on our side. That's why I say we can hoover around these lows for a couple of months still.
but in a way like price wise we're already at heavy undervalued levels and so if we start
gradually moving up from here that actually keeps us within the four-year cycle now we still have a
couple of months but if we would yeah make it an autumn high a new autumn high this year then this
whole bear market would be indeed a mini bear market and as such and more like a mid-cycle dip
like it's a 50% drop that we're currently at.
But it would start to feel more like a 2019 situation
where we had this, a bit of like this mid-cycle dip,
which was pretty severe.
Like actually that was a struggle around that 10K level.
Then we had this mid-cycle dip and then we had COVID
and then we started moving into a bull market.
Now that is still a possibility.
And given that the business cycle is actually coming out
of this recessionary state, that is an option.
So I'm entirely open to that situation.
I just don't think it's the most probable outcome.
I think it's much more likely to, since hype is away, it takes time for hype to move back
into Bitcoin.
And so I think we still need a couple of months to set that low.
And then gradually Bitcoin starts moving up.
And when, again, we start reaching those 100k levels, there might still be some sell pressure
from that hot or cohort, like people that actually would have wanted to take more profits,
maybe around the top, but, you know, we never reach those price targets that, you know, we're
hoped for. And so you get some gradual sell pressure still. And then once we move past that,
we get actually really ready to make new all-time highs. Yeah, I agree that the probability is that
we sort of hang around these levels for a little bit. But what probability would you put on us
hitting a new all-time high this year? I think they are very low. I think
um an ultimate high this year for me is like around 30 or so okay not that low i'll take it
yeah there's still a 70 chance to to just follow the four-year cycle
should we move on to the next chart yeah so uh maybe we just start with this chart so um
so we had basically this bullish trend in bitcoin like like since the 2022 bear market low
we had a bullish trend which you can see in this chart this is actually
the low of a channel that i drew based on a regression on on all of the price data from that
three-year bull market and and so once we started you know soon after the ultimate high that we made
and we started like dropping below the short-term holocaust basis we also fell below that bullish
trend. And that was for me, you know, a severe warning signal. Okay, you know, Bitcoin cannot
sustain and actually, so bullish trend. So it looks it's a linear line on this chart, but it's
actually an exponential trend, because the price data is shown in log scale on this chart. And so
if you would look at it in linear scale, it would be curved line up. And so an exponential trend is
never sustainable, by the way, so it will always end. And so the bull market will at some point
and we'll fall into a bear market.
And so soon after making the all-time high,
we broke below that trend line.
And so that was a severe warning cycle.
And that didn't mean necessarily
that it was the end of the bull market,
but it did mean that we were not going to sustain
that bull market at that trend.
Now, once we started dropping below
that $2 trillion cap line,
which actually coincides with the 100K price level,
very psychological price level for bitcoiners that was again another signal okay hey this this
consolidation or this dip is going to take slightly longer and so then we had a retest of
the short-term holocaust basis which i warned my followers okay you know we're time-wise we're in
a four-year cycle it looked like we looks definitely like we could move into a bear market
if you know if you cannot sustain a year a year-long bear market this is a good time to
take profit, you know, because, you know, it's, it's all, it's of course, always risk management.
We, nobody knows where Bitcoin is going to go, but there was a big likelihood that, you know,
this dip was going to take a long time. And so I took profit at the level. I shared that with my
followers. And then actually then soon after we had that, that not another leg down to that minus
50% from the ultimate high. And that was a severe capitulation event, but still not similar to
previous bear market bottoms it was like and and during a bear market of bitcoin uh if we look at
on-chain data for example profit levels or so and so forth we can actually um you know estimate like
or see how there there's are there are actually usually several capitulation events and we can
actually look at the size of the capitulation event and so we can compare that and and and so
this drop seemed more like a June 2022 drop in the previous cycle, which I have a chart on that.
Maybe we can move to that. I think it's this one. So the current drop here, which you see in that
gray area, is very similar to the June drop in the previous bear market. And we've seen that
also in previous cycles.
And so you can see that there's still a couple of months
of this bottom formation after such event.
And so we had a severe capitalization event,
but not of the size that we saw at the bear market bottom,
like FTX, for example, here at the bear market bottom in 2022.
And so to me, yeah, that means that we still have a couple of months time-wise,
and so people need to be a bit patient.
So you said there you took some profit.
Have you bought back in yet or what are you waiting for?
No, I'm actually not.
I took some profit to sustain the bear market year.
So as a hotler, I also look to improve my lifestyle
and I knew that there was a high risk
of having a year-long bear market.
And so I did not want to risk, you know, not having enough funds to sustain the whole year for the lifestyle improvements that I'm undergoing.
And so that was for me a key reason to take some profit at those levels.
Okay, fair enough. It's not something you were looking to buy back in with necessarily.
No, I have a long term stack. And actually, I have like a stacking goal still as well.
but you know given that we're moving into a year bear market or that likely was very high
it was a good moment to take profit now i'm i do i might buy back in if we really get another leg
down and we get to these undervalued levels and i have some charts on that later i can show you
where that would be um no price might just be too good and i might move some some funds back
but basically i i plan on some lifestyle improvements and and so instead of waiting
for potential higher prices of Bitcoin,
I took some earlier profits to sustain a bear market year.
Fair enough.
You've got to live your life, man.
So the thing that I've seen around this chart
or a similar chart on Twitter
from all the TA people out there
is that people are calling this another bear flag now.
I don't know how much,
I don't put too much credence on TA,
but is that something you're watching?
Yeah, I mean, I put more thought into on-chain analysis
And I have some very good charts on this, but indeed it could be.
And so I still think there's a reason that we might have another leg down.
I think their chance is fairly high even.
And that would happen over the next couple of months.
But as I said, we also have passive flows into Bitcoin.
And so we don't have to get there this time.
Just as, you know, we didn't have this blow of thought or like we had such a distributed thought, but we also didn't even reach 140K, which was a bit disappointing, I guess, for many.
Um, also I think now maybe some people will get disappointed by the lows that we make
or like that they, that we cannot buy cheap sats.
Makes sense.
Okay.
Let's go on to the next one.
What else have we got?
Yeah.
So, so as I say, so we have all this conflict in the world, um, but, but it, it, it basically
always comes down to fear and greed, like within Bitcoin.
Right.
And, and, um, so this, the events that we have seen actually now, um, uh, made us drop.
So in this chart, I actually have some levels based on the short-term holder cost basis.
And basically, those levels are, you know, how much loss can a short-term holder sustain?
And so we have this short-term holder floor and the mezzanine level in between.
And so with that February 5th drop, we nearly reached, so this is actually daily closed data.
But if you would look at the actual price, we nearly touched that short-term holder floor level.
And now we kind of moved up again about, you know, above that mezzanine level.
So we're in the middle of those levels, which is a very common level to get to if we look at Bitcoin's history.
And usually, so for example, with COVID, we reached that short-term holder floor.
But during that 2019 mini bear, let's say, we only got to that mezzanine level.
If it wasn't for COVID, we would have probably stayed around that mezzanine level and slightly moved up again from there.
But in the bear market, you see we can hit that floor a couple of times.
And so we did that actually in June of 22.
We also reached that.
So again, very similar to June 22.
And then, you know, we started moving up.
We still had a final leg down.
That was, again, only to the mezzanine level.
But as you see, that floor level moves down also heavily.
and so I think this is a very useful chart
I think so we're now at the mezzanine level
I think we might have another retest
in the next couple of months maybe
or in the next month or so
towards that short-term molar cost basis
just as we did after June 2022
we kind of hoovered between the mezzanine
and short-term molar cost basis a couple of times
but I think it's likely that we'll still reject
off that short-term molar cost basis
because it's an interesting level
and a bear market to take people are actually even then with their investments and so it often a reason why they get out of the market but so i so i think that is still possible to
of course those move those levels will be moving be moving down uh and so so i think a retest of
the shorter molar cost basis uh and then maybe again another try out to the to the mezzanine
level and then uh up from there that is that is the most probable outcome in my opinion if you
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That's leden.io forward slash wbd. Do you not think that the sort of structure of the market
will change the behavior of this though? Because if you look back at the last two times we hit that
lower band, it looks like it was COVID and that was a very quick touch and then straight back up
basically, which obviously a huge event that affected the world globally, affected the economy.
Then we've got the crash after FTX blew up, which was a very Bitcoin sort of crypto specific crash.
It was one of those moments where you were like, how deep does this go?
How systemic to the entire Bitcoin market is this?
It was like in some ways an existential threat to a lot of the businesses that ran within Bitcoin.
We saw so many close down.
Like this time's different, I think, in the sense that we have the passive flows in the ETFs.
Institutions are here.
I think people are probably looking at Bitcoin right now as being very good value.
I certainly am.
Like, does that not change the behavior of this chart?
Yeah, so actually, it might.
So as I said, like, maybe this will be the low
since we have passive flows moving into the space.
And maybe time-wise,
we'll still just move around these lower levels.
But maybe we already sat in the low in that recent rent,
the February 5th drop, like similar to June 2022.
Like, so in June, if it wasn't for FTX,
we wouldn't have gotten like another lag down,
you know temporarily and but this time around there's also so much macro uncertainty so i don't
know i mean if we are now the the straight of foremost like how much effect will it have on
global markets yeah you know what what if we get it what if we do get a recession in the next year
or so like a really a crash in stock markets that that would be definitely enough of a catalyst to
have like a potential short another leg down let's say to that mezzanine level and then go back up
from there. So I think there's enough uncertainty in the world to function as a catalyst for
something like that to happen. Yeah, that does make sense. Like if we see
oil go back above $100, the economy start really teetering.
It's already at $100. Is it back at $100 today?
It depends on which metric you're looking at, but I think US crude is at 96 or something.
uh and so yeah you're right yeah um so i mean i think in that scenario yeah i could totally see
bitcoin going down further but i also think it increases the chance of them just doing a mega
print and who knows what happened the next i mean yeah so as i said so so that very much depends so
if trump is able to resolve this war and you know in may we're going to see changes of the fed chair
and we know that there's going to be like a brick print coming.
You know, wars are inflationary.
And so, you know, but if the war could be resolved somehow,
like before May and then in May we get the print,
you know, then maybe indeed we, you know, we set in the low
and then maybe the February 5th was the low
and we started like gradually moving up
and maybe into the midterms we won't see a market crash.
That's obviously what Trump is trying to do.
Now, if it's going to work, I don't know
because I don't think he expected the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
And that's a COVID similar type of shock to the world's energy supply.
And so I don't know how this will unpack.
Yeah, we want to see Bitcoin go up, but not like this.
All right, let's go on to the next one.
Yeah, so I thought maybe we can talk a bit about where we are in the cycle
since we are exactly within the four-year cycle.
So this is actually the four-year cycle displayed here.
And it showed the days until the halving.
So cycles are aligned here with the days until the halving.
And those dotted lines are the realized price,
which is a basic, very key on-chain metric.
It's the average purchase price of all Bitcoin in circulation.
That's the realized price.
And so if we line the market, like if we line all these cycles with the realized price, we see that during that bear market bottom formation, which, you know, in my opinion, there's a high probability of that to happen in the next couple of months, we fall below that realized price.
and so that that could bring us to levels currently the realized price is around 54k
um or you know nearly 55k uh so so you know there's a big reason we could potentially drop
below that below 55k still with one more leg down in the next couple of months and so it depends
very much on the macro circumstances i agree uh we have passive flows and so we don't have to get
there but uh you know i think if you're looking to get into bitcoin it's it's um it's probably the
the best strategy is to to dca over the next couple of months into bitcoin and uh maybe you
catch that another leg down like if you don't okay if we start moving up and we already sat in the
low great but uh yeah i think there's still enough uncertainty in the world for for one more leg down
to happen see the thing in this chart that i would fade and i'm willing to put myself out on a limb
here and this could age like milk but this would suggest that we have another year of sort of
sideways down and i just can't see that happening i could be totally wrong but i can't see that
happening my gut doesn't say that's what's going to happen so so to really form the bottom would
only take like give and take six months at most um and then indeed to kind of start to recovery
which would already be the beginning of a bull market by the way huh so so if we i mean going
back to, do I have a chart on that? So going back to that. So do you consider the bull market
starting the day we hit the lowest print? Yeah. So, so I mean, I mean, this is what we look at,
like if we, if we, if we look at the bull trend, then we also start counting from the bear market
bottom, right? So if you get in around that bear market bottom, you have a three year trend,
like a three year uptrend, an exponential uptrend. And so, so in a way in the next six months,
and it could also maybe maybe it will be only be four or three uh you know maybe in may we before
like when when the print is is going to happen uh you know like so so uh but i think if we once we
set in the low in the next couple of months and then we start moving up then in in a way you could
look at that already as the start of a new bull market although you don't really know if we're in
a bull market yet i mean we really have to move up like above that short tomorrow cost basis get a
retest and actually, you know, stay above it, that would be like a confirmation of the start of a
bullish trend again. And so that's what I'm looking for in the next couple of months. But indeed,
that means that we get a bit more like sideways price action for potentially a year because we,
I mean, if we drop to 50 still in the next three months, and then we start moving again up and
we'll be around, you know, maybe 80s, 90s in eight or nine months or maybe 10 or 12 months even,
And yeah, that would look very similar to previous cycles.
And I think that's a realistic outcome.
I would take the bet on this one.
Let's say in two years' time, if we were to look at this chart, I think we will look at this saying this time actually might have been different.
But this could be pure cope.
Who knows?
Yeah, I mean, I agree.
With the business cycle changing, as I said, the business cycle is actually coming out of a recessionary state.
but yeah maybe all these dynamics that are currently going on with straight from was closed
and the supply energy supply shock it could it maybe it moves again back below for some reason
i don't know i although yeah there could be an extended cycle so maybe we'll only get a mild
bear market as i said we do also have passive flows but for me i mean the highest probability
is to still continue the four-year cycle path the reason being at most because hype is out of the
market hype is in ai hype is in gold hype is not really in bitcoin um then there's all this conflict
in the world and and so you know bitcoin's patience will be tested over the next couple of months
and some will lose faith a bit like okay maybe bitcoin is not going anywhere you know if we
still another two months of sideways action price action i think you know some people will be
in patience and and you know they they want to chase uh profits and so that maybe they also
flipped to AI again. Many already did. So I wouldn't be too surprised if we got such a
scenario which is portrayed here in the chart. Fair enough. Okay, let's go on to the next one.
Don't sound happy about that one. I'm not unhappy about it. There's a lot of dynamics in there that
I don't know if I totally agree with the premise on. I do agree that obviously we've not had the
hype. But I wonder if there's people now looking at gold being over $5,000. You showed that
indicator before the RSI is way up there in the 90s. Does some of that money, does it feel like
gold's topping at some point, even if it's only short term? And does some of that money start
rolling back into Bitcoin? I think there's a lot of dynamics that you could look at that might
suggest something else. Yeah, I agree. So indeed, it is true that if we look at anything,
like where would you want to put money gold is heavily overvalued the stock market is heavily
overvalued but bitcoin is very attractive at these prices and and so um now i don't know how
much money necessarily is now chasing uh like this attractive investment you know because it also
feels risky we had some of the quantum threats there's some uncertainty you know uh and then we
have all this conflict and then gold is actually performing very well bitcoin is not and so
So a bit of loss of confidence, like, oh, is Bitcoin really going to do what it's going to do?
But if you really look at the fundamentals, Bitcoin is actually exactly doing what it's going to do.
And so I'm super optimistic, actually, about Bitcoin, right?
Like, okay, I'm pessimistic about the next couple of months.
I mean, I even think we don't necessarily have to get that lag down.
As I said, there's passive flows, and so maybe we don't.
And also the reason the business cycle is extending,
maybe that also will have an impact on bitcoin and we'll bottom early or this was already the
bottom and we started kind of gradually moving up but if we look at the on-chain charts and for
example in this one we see such a similarity to previous bear markets you know we see these
rat lines like the amount of short amount of profits which is shown here you know we it's
hard to neglect like it looks exactly like a bear market would and and so yeah for me
Unfortunately, also then the probability is the highest that we'll continue exactly as how a bear market usually has functioned in the past.
And yeah, it doesn't sound that attractive, but I think it's also a big opportunity because, you know, we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap SADs and Bitcoin will turn around again.
I mean, Bitcoin is not going to zero.
It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity
and to even live in peace with AI and to be all, you know.
And so I think it's so, Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.
In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth, you know, much more than 200K
and probably will go into the millions.
But yeah, we have to move through this phase.
I mean, hype is gone.
We have seen this every cycle.
you know bitcoin has to form a bottom that takes time there's a time factor to this
and that's so it will take a couple of months and but but yeah those months are an opportunity as
well totally and i think the place where i might have some disagreement with you and to caveat this
you're going off data here i'm going off vibes um and i'm also always ultra bullish is i like it's
clear we're in a bear market no denying that we it's just obvious but what i'm unsure of is why
it has to necessarily rhyme with previous bear markets in this sort of cycle theory. Because
the halving impact is so much smaller than it has been in the past, I just don't know what it is
about the sort of months of the year that mean that Bitcoin has to go down or up. I guess that's
where I'm coming from. Yeah. And we saw this, I mean, getting back to the cycles. I mean,
since the start of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has moved in this four-year cyclical pattern. And of course,
in the beginning, the halving had a huge impact, and that is indeed negligible at this point
in time. But before, we had also an eight-year cycle. So for example, if we look at the 2008
crash, for that to happen, that was an eight-year cycle. And so I wouldn't necessarily rule out that
maybe we get an extended cycle this time as well. Of course, these four-year cycles are
influenced by presidential cycles, which are, you know, based on the four year period. And so all
those dynamics have an effect on the market. And so I'm also totally open to for the cycle to
change. So I'm not saying we will stay within the four year cycle for the next, you know, we will
have that. I'm not saying we will have two more four year cycles and Bitcoin coming up. So I'm
just saying currently we're still exactly in that four-year cycle pattern and and so uh you know
maybe that will change into the future like as i said for example an autumn high this year would
kind of disprove or would prove that we would be moving away from it but currently there's no such
proof yet and so so we have to kind of assume that it will continue now there are some indicators
like the business cycle which you know um maybe are a reason indeed to move away from that this
time around. But
yeah, so far Bitcoin is not
showing any of those trades yet.
We're actually at bear market lows
which we have every cycle
around that midterms
year. But I also think
an eight year cycle is possible into the future.
Dynamics are definitely
changing. It feels like so much
is going on in the world with Trump now
and so maybe
the dynamics of markets will change
and will be extended.
Yeah, that's fair enough.
Yeah, that would just mean like a bit more reduced bear market,
like maybe then the low is in, as I said,
and we could kind of start gradually moving up from here.
So I think that's entirely possible.
Fair, and only time will tell, I guess.
Okay, next chart.
What have we got next?
These are a little different to normal route.
I'm enjoying it.
Okay, great, great.
We've not had the spiral yet.
No, I didn't include a spiral chart yet,
but uh i mean i mean you want to look at the spiral i can open i can open one if you want but
uh it these these are great charts as well they uh they represent the the cyclical behavior in
bitcoin for example here we are looking at the on value map um and and this very interesting in my opinion so we we didn really reach those heavy overvalue levels which you see here like that red line in the top the red band but and so maybe also we won reach
those heavy undervalue levels and here again we see there is still room for another leg down and
then so that's what again another reason why I say okay we cannot necessarily rule out that we'll
have another leg down. But I think if we do, that will also be kind of the final nail in the coffin.
And then we kind of move up from here. And so basically, we have six months to do just that.
Now, maybe it doesn't come again, because of passive flows. I actually hope it won't. It would
be great. That would be exciting for the future as well. Bitcoin is changing. But if we do,
it feels very much similar to historic patterns. So as much as I want to see Bitcoin go up,
I'd take the opportunity to buy 45k Bitcoin. So this is actually the level that I also
probably will move some funds back in. It will just be too cheap to leave. I mean,
it's like a COVID opportunity, you know, like we literally saw here COVID dropping to the heavy
undervalued levels. I mean, it becomes too attractive to buy at such levels. So I also,
I think, yeah, if we would drop there, I would become a buyer as well.
yeah the covid diff is my proudest buy i think because that's that was a terrifying time i i if
we saw anything like that ever again i'm just going to be selling everything i possibly can
yeah yeah and currently we're having a bit of issues similar to covid like with now for example
the energy supply shock 20 of world's energy is going to the straight from us so so that that is
you know i i don't know um so far it hasn't been like bitcoin has been moving up and been stable
but uh yeah i i don't know i will uh we'll we'll see how this conflict will evolve over the next
couple of months yeah that's the sell your chairs to buy bitcoin kind of opportunity um cool this i
mean the the funny thing is like this this is the bear market that has least affected me sort of in
an emotional sense and that just could be that i've been through these before but you know the
The numbers we talk about in terms of percentage up, percentage down are just, they're a joke now.
Where's the 80% drawdown gone?
This is nothing.
Yeah, it's very unlikely to get to a 70% drawdown even.
And I've shared that with my followers.
I've shared some charts and we actually looked at drawdowns and levels that likely we'd get to.
And actually, we'll get to some of those levels in the next couple of charts.
I actually made some charts to look really at
what that bot information looks like
and then again I'm saying that
we don't have to get there but this is kind of
I think it's a good thing to kind of assume that we might get there
and if we don't it will only be good
but yeah I think
a 70% drawdown is very unlikely
we have some on-chain levels
and this has to do also of course because we didn't have a blow of top
Because we had such a distributed top, we didn't even reach those heavy overvalue levels.
So also, as a consequence, the percentage drawdown is mild.
Yeah, I think the thing we've missed in this is that you spoke about all the retail FOMO in gold and in AI stocks, but also treasury companies.
So many people were just FOMOing into treasury companies, whereas previously they might have bought Bitcoin.
I think that definitely had a dampening effect on the upside.
Yeah, that's actually a great point that you mentioned.
So I actually recently explained that as well with my followers.
So this was actually like,
maybe we can talk a bit about the differences
from this bull market to previous cycles.
So we saw a lot of gradual institutional adoption.
And so instead of some of that money flowing to spot exchanges,
and have an effect on spot price,
we actually saw money flowing to indeed treasury companies for example and then we had
buys from sailor but those buys are like most likely true otc desks and so they try to kind of
like have a minimum impact on price you know like how can we acquire bitcoin and and and you know
because if you start like buying spot bitcoin like 17 000 bitcoin or something whatever
you know if you buy that spot it will have like a huge impact temporarily on spot price so you
yourself right if you're buying like so so you want to make these deals OTC and this this is
actually what ETFs do and with in-kind redemptions and and also you know treasury companies and so
in a way so with this gradual institutional like gradual money flowing into Bitcoin through
institutions also means indeed that many of those Bitcoins were bought OTC. And so there are OGs out
there with thousands of Bitcoin, and they're happy to take some profit. But yes, and they sell often
through these OTC desks. And so this was probably the, you know, in this cycle, the least impactful
on spot price. And we also see that, I mean, we had a very distributed price, very distributed
price action. Nothing of the like that we saw in 2017, which was very hype-driven, retail hype-driven,
very spot-driven market. This market was much less spot-driven.
Yeah. And I guess if you're buying on the spot markets, then you start liquidating shorts,
and then you have the volatile moves up, and Bitcoin has to figure out if it can actually
sustain the price. And so that volatility was all taken out of the market because of the OTC desk,
is what you're saying, I think.
Yeah, so a lot of that spot action,
which indeed has much more effect on Bitcoin's price,
was now reduced because of indeed OTC buys by ETFs.
And ETFs were one of the key drivers
and treasury companies of this bull market.
And so I think, therefore,
also we have seen such reduced price action
like to the upside.
Yeah, that makes sense.
All right. What else have you got for us, Ru?
Yeah, maybe we can go a bit into that bottom formation.
So we already looked at this chart.
So this is basically comparing the current drop to the June 2022 drop.
And so what we look at here, actually, we're going to start combining
some of these key on-chain metrics that I already introduced.
So here we're looking at the short-term holder floor,
which is actually this level of that short-term holder,
based on the short-term holder cost basis.
So how much of a loss,
like what is the maximum loss
that short-term holders can sustain?
Basically, that's the short-term holder floor level.
And then we have the realized price,
which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.
And so we just now had the cross
of the short-term holder floor
falling below that realized price.
And if we look where that historically happens,
that was around June 22.
And so we're like very much
the current drop in terms of
capitulation.
So if we look at capitulation in Bitcoin terms
and compare that to previous
bear markets, it very much looks like
this June 22 event.
If we look at the short molar floor versus realized
price, it very much looks like the June 22
event. And then we can
introduce actually some more metrics.
So here
this is actually the low of the on-chain
value map. The on-chain value map
low is based on
one of my custom implementations of coin value days destroyed which was originally a metric that
willy woo came up with but it has been very accurate in in actually setting like a floor
for the entire market and the interesting thing about this metric is that it never moves down
so where we looked at short and molar floor that you know those bands they move up and down
but this coin value days destroy level only moves up and so uh so so that sets the floor and that's
currently i think around nearly at 45k as well and so that will keep on moving up towards like
in the next couple of months and so it's very likely that maybe like these these high 40s are
still within the cards um but i don't think we'll move much lower and then as i said again um you
falling in repetition here but these passive flows you know might be a key reason why we
won't even get there but uh we still have to assume that we might you know there's there's
this probability out there so um and then uh so so what what i actually defined this period that
we're currently in is the bottom formation so those are highlighted here by those uh red bars
So this is actually when the realized price moves in between or when the short term flow moves in between the realized price and those coin value destroy levels.
Because we see that we actually, the short term flow moves lower than Bitcoin eventually will.
Because, you know, Bitcoin starts moving, start actually moving towards that short term flow cost basis again and tries to get back above it in bull territory.
but the bands still, they move much lower.
And so the short molar floor is a great level to see like,
okay, we're currently at heavy undervalue levels.
You know, like we saw with COVID, for example,
we dropped to that short molar floor.
That's a level that you absolutely don't want to buy at actually.
It's a short-term floor for Bitcoin.
But the eventual floor of the bear market might be lower
and historically has reached like levels of coin value days destroyed,
which we see here in this chart as well.
And so we're currently at the stage
where the short model floor moved
between the realized price
and that coin value is the destroy level.
And for me, that is the period of bottom formation.
Now, historically, we see that,
like, yeah, that takes a couple of months.
And so, you know, we're now one month in,
basically, since the February 5th drop.
And so we still have a couple of more months
to, you know, be in this bottom formation stage.
before we kind of move back up.
It's time to take the opportunity to get some cheap sats.
Who knows if he'll go lower, but this is good value right now.
Roo, we can't do a show with you without the spiral chart.
Come on, let's see it.
All right, let me...
Has that chart broken now?
Because wasn't the idea that the circles were ever expanding?
And have we now crossed?
We have not crossed.
and I also don't think we will cross in the in the next year and a half I think the chances
of crossing are very very low oh okay let's we need to see this chart okay I got it up so this
is the this is the 3d version by the way and so this is actually based on on the on-chain value
map I can't tell where we are now where are we now we're currently here okay oh I see this one
is not completely updated.
I don't know why it stops here.
So we'd have to go down
to the reasonable amount.
We're actually now below
that surface level.
So we moved below.
The surface is actually
the fair value
that we just looked at.
If we looked at the value map,
that green level
was always the fair value
price of Bitcoin.
That is what the surface
represents here.
And then we have periods
of bull markets,
which is, you know,
the entire bull market we were above that surface level and now we move back below the surface
but we'd still have to go a long way down from here for those circles to cross
yeah so so historically we see towards the end of the year that would be and this could be
slightly earlier because we see that that because one one full rotation in that spiral is represents
the period of four years and so um so we see those bottoms uh so for example this was the
the 2018 bottom that happened in uh in december you know the price of 3k uh then we had here the
2022 bottom like 16k let's say it was uh it was in november and so like uh maybe now this time in
october we'll get a bottom that you know the the spiral chart would actually imply that uh and so
So we now moved below the surface already.
I'm not sure why this is not updated.
I need to check, actually.
And I need to look into that.
But we're now below that surface level.
We are below fair value.
And so we're actually a couple months
because this is exactly,
I mean, this one stops here at the end of 2025, I see.
But we're currently already three months in, right?
So we're three months already below that surface level now.
And so we still have a couple of months
to form that bottom.
And this is what the four-year cycle
would look like, you know.
And I mean, so yes, we didn't get to,
we didn't have a blow off top
and we had a bit of like a distributed bull market,
but look at how similar those green dots
were during this whole phase here
compared to previous cycles that we did that,
you know, that looks very similar.
Now here was the halving,
and this was actually the autumn high
before the halving, you know,
the ETF approval, that was like a lot of hype.
That was the first, that was a key difference this cycle.
We had an autumn high before the halving,
but there was a clear catalyst, you know,
big reason why we did.
And so I think that's normal.
So this was the halving.
And so, yeah, what's next is we are now below that surface level.
We form a bottom at some point.
It could be the February low,
but then that red dot would be here,
which is kind of still early on the four-year cycle basis.
It's more likely to happen in the next couple of months.
So potentially another leg down and then start moving back up and, you know, go to the next
halving event.
The spiral chart is intact.
Yeah.
Root, this has been amazing.
Anything else you want to go through with us before we close everything out?
No, everything is always about probabilities.
And so I don't claim to know what the future holds.
We will see.
Maybe this time is different.
I'm open to all these scenarios, but it is clear that we are in a bear market.
It's clear that we're undergoing a bottom formation.
Maybe the February 5th was the bottom, but I still think there's another,
like the probabilities are higher that we'll still see one in the next couple of months.
It might be a bit reduced due to passive flows.
And yeah, we'll see from there.
But I'm also up to, I mean, if we start pushing against the short-mortem cost basis
and we move back above it,
I become a bull again, like short-term bull.
I mean, I'm a long-term bull all the time,
but, you know, short-term, we have to be realistic.
And yeah, I think time is a factor in this bear market.
We need to go through.
So my message would be, you know,
if you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months
and that will be rewarded.
Have patience.
If you've got any cashflow, double, triple the DCAs.
This is the opportunity now.
And Ruud, thank you so much, man.
Where can people go to find out more about your work?
Yeah, so you can go to BitcoinStrategyPlatform.com
or subscribe to my newsletter,
which is BitcoinStrategy.Substack.com.
And you can, of course, follow me on Twitter
and Noster as at TheRationalRuud.
And, you know, if you follow me,
you know, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
You will get access to all the live charts
and I will actually give you more info
and I'll go through you together
to kind of dissect this bear market
and where to enter exactly around that bottom area.
Awesome.
Thank you, man.
I will speak to you soon.
I'll probably see you in Vegas.
Do you want to make a bet on the price by Vegas?
Higher or lower than today?
Vegas, wait, that's already next month.
actually i think vegas might be still higher than today oh that means i've got to take the under
i can't be bearish because i i think we're gonna you know potentially we'll we'll might be
like around that short term holder cost basis level uh during vegas and so we could potentially
like you know uh move back above it but i think there's still a chance that we'll reject off it
and then get that get set to low in after so so but the only uh the only price information that's
more accurate in the four-year cycle is that Bitcoin always tanks around the conference.
Yeah, exactly. So maybe, you know, there's this potential to reach the short model cost basis,
and then we reject right at the conference. Well, I can't take the under. I'm too bullish
for that. So we'll just have to wait and see. But thank you, man. I will see you out in Vegas.
I'll catch you soon. Thank you, Danny. See you in Vegas.
Thank you.