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What is the macro uncertainty that might cause some damage?

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Technologically, Bitcoin is developing.

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We have eCash, Lightning.

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It's all getting more integrated in a protocol level.

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Everything looks actually fantastic,

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but it's the macro uncertainty that probably might cause some damage.

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Prolonged bull market is possible, and we won't,

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because then there's no basis to really go into the bear market.

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I actually think there's a fair chance we stick within the four-year cycle.

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But if we just continue the gradual channel up,

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channel up, I think we can get prolonged and actually break the four-year cycle.

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This episode is brought to you by River. In every bull market, there's always a bunch of

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Mr. Root, the big orange carrot.

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I'm excited for this one.

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All-time highs, although we have crashed.

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We have crashed down to $119,861.

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Wow, we're below $120, man.

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It's over.

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Pack it up.

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It's over.

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Time to go home for four years.

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Yeah.

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No, no.

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I'm very excited, of course, about the price action.

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You know, $120,000.

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Let's round it to $120,000.

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It's pretty good.

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You know, we're in the next lag up.

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And I think there's still some room for more upside.

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but yeah let's

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I've actually prepared

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some charts so

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let me know what you want to cover as well

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cool there's lots to talk about

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we can get into all of that

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but maybe the best place to start

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so we last spoke in February

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Bitcoin was at basically 100k

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and since then it's kind of

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like to be honest it's been sort of six or seven months

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of relatively sideways

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and obviously now we've broken out

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hit 120

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Do you want to just give us a bit of a recap to start with?

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Yeah, actually, I do have a really great chart to recap on that part.

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Let's do it.

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Maybe I should share the chart.

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We don't have to do it in the order that...

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Well, let me share my screen.

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I'll try and describe these as well for anyone listening on audio.

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This one.

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So basically, Bitcoin has been very correlated to risk-on assets still.

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You know, we're still that early, I guess.

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But here I compare the performance of the risk on assets, like the S&P 500 index and

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NASDAQ 100 and Bitcoin.

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A starting point, I chose actually the 16th of December, 2024.

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So many times people look at performance year to date, right?

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So how well, like what is the return on Bitcoin so far this year?

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um and but here i took um uh the 16th of december because that was the moment that

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like all of these three assets had an ultimate high at the same moment in time and so it's a good

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it's a better starting point you know more fair starting point because actually um all of uh so

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all three have been like kind of um found resistance at this zero percent line which was

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kind of the plateau for bitcoin that was 100k of course for the for nasdaq and the s&p was a

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different price range but uh but you can see that the performance of all of these three and we were

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kind of like the more times you hit that resistance the more you're like you you you're like building

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up and eventually going to push through and so um bitcoin is of course the more volatile beast so

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that was like we had a bit more downside uh but we also had a slightly early autumn high

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but you could see like they they all kind of marked this same bottom which was in april 2025

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and uh and and since then like risk on like they have all in line been moving up and so for me that

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was like risk on momentum was building again and we were going to push again against that plateau

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and and so when when the uh s&p and nasdaq pushed through i also yeah communicated with my followers

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like, okay, Bitcoin is going to follow through as well, you know, like, because just momentum

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is building up. And yeah, Bitcoin is now at all time highs. And so I think now this plateau,

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so for Bitcoin, again, that's like kind of the 100k zone, is now going to function as a support

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zone in the future. And so on this chart here, it looks like obviously Bitcoin's broken out,

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the NASDAQ and S&P haven't broken out to the same degree. Bitcoiners like to talk about decoupling.

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Is it too early to say Bitcoin's decoupled here or do you think that is a possibility?

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Yeah, yeah, it's definitely too early.

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You know, as you can see, it's very correlated.

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Of course, the further you zoom out, because Bitcoin is more volatile and Bitcoin will have, like, of course, bigger returns, it will outperform.

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And, you know, you won't have the same correlation if you start zooming out.

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But in, like, shorter time frames, you can definitely see the correlation still there.

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So, no, unfortunately, Bitcoin is still seen as risk on.

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And since we have so much institutional interest and kind of like the traditional financial system now interested into Bitcoin, I think it will remain correlated for some time.

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And what do you think has driven this move? Is it a load of shorts getting squeezed?

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Definitely that was part of it. But also, yeah, I think there were a lot of macro events that were kind of causing fear in the market.

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You know, we had the tariffs, we had real wars going on.

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And so it was not just Bitcoin.

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It was all risk on assets.

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And so we had, yeah, just downside, like a long consolidation.

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And you can see now also, like there were again, some new tariffs by Trump.

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But this time it didn't have, like now it doesn't hardly have any impact.

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So that's a very positive to see.

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And for me also to believe that indeed this lag still has more upside.

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So you don't think we're going to stop here at 120K? How sustainable do you think this move is going to be?

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Yeah, I mean, we might have some short consolidations of a few days or even a week or whatever, but I still think there's going to be more. I think it can still continue to move up further.

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Yeah, I mean, we'll get into some of the details with all of the charts. I don't know, maybe we should just walk through some of the charts first.

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Yeah, let's do it.

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Because actually I wanted to start off with the spiral chart.

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I saw this chart on your Twitter and I really like it.

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So this is, for anyone listening, this is a Bitcoin version of the Wall Street cheat sheet.

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Exactly.

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And we use the cool way to show the cyclical behavior by using the spiral chart.

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And then align all the faces, which so far in Bitcoin's history has just been playing out.

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like you know extremely well and so it's uh you know human beings are human beings and the

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psychology uh will kind of remain the same now of course there there might some be some slight

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difference from cycle to cycle you know as macro events now have a bigger impact on bitcoin bitcoin

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is a two trillion dollar asset now and so it's you know if there's some macro event like terrorism

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war bitcoin is affected as well and and and this might cause some slight variations to a cycle but

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overall, I mean, Bitcoin has been moving in this four-year cycle pattern. And so the question is

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also, will it remain in the four-year cycle pattern? It's still tough to answer, although

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there are actually this time some on-chain early signs why maybe it might be different. And we'll

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get into some of those details as well. And I mean, I'm still skeptical because every cycle,

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You know, people have been calling for lengthening cycles or shortening cycles or all kinds of super cycles.

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But, you know, we've always kind of remained in the same pattern.

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And of course, because human psychology doesn't change.

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And I really do think we're kind of in the thrill phase, right?

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Like, do you feel thrilled, Danny?

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Do you know what?

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It was this move is the first time this bull market where I've actually had a bit of like excitement going on.

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I'm kind of numb to a lot of it now.

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But when Bitcoin hit $120K, that was the first time I felt something again.

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Just before we get into this, I'm sure most people listening to this will already know your work and know the spiral chart.

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But for anyone that doesn't, this chart looks wildly different to anything else people will have seen.

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Do you want to just explain the spiral chart before we get into it?

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Yeah, I'll just give a quick explainer.

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So it starts actually in the top of the spiral, in the center, but from the vertical line.

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And that's 2009.

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And then a full rotation in the spiral represents a period of four years.

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And so you can see how Bitcoin expands.

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And each ring is on lock scale.

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So it's a move times 10.

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So we go from $1 to $10 to $100.

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And so we continue.

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The outer ring is actually $10 million.

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So the one before that is $1 million.

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And we're now, we crossed the 100K ring, which is pretty exciting.

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And so Bitcoin has been moving in the same pattern.

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Actually, the color coding that you see here is based on short-term holder behavior, which

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in general, short-term holder data, which we take from the on-chain data, is very susceptible

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to price action.

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And so if we get overextended or undervalued based on a standard deviation to the average purchase price of people that are a relatively short amount of time in the market, we can actually color code the chart.

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And you can see, for example, that second quadrant is all red with all the bottoms and the cycle bottoms, actually those big red dots in the south of the chart.

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And of course, in the first quadrant, towards the end of the year, we have these big green

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dots, which are the cycle peaks historically.

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So they've all been kind of at the end of the year.

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And so that gives us more or less in the four-year cycle still, you know, five to six months

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time to make a cycle peak if we will stay within the four-year cycle.

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Okay.

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So we're going into the thrill stage now.

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So do you think, so like you said, this gives us five to six months left in this bull market to make a top.

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Do you think that's actually likely?

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Because when people talk about things like the super cycle or elongated cycles, I'm with you.

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I'm always kind of cautious about that kind of claim.

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But there are some things happening in the market now that are very different to anything that's happened before.

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Do you think this could end up being elongated?

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Yeah, I think actually we've been really moving up in a structural way.

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And we might get a prolonged bull market, actually.

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There are some early signs for why that could happen, but it doesn't have to.

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So I'm still skeptical because, you know, every cycle, you know, people have called for this.

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And so, you know, I don't want to be.

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But indeed, it's good to track those signs and we'll get into some of them.

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So I'll explain a bit what those signs are in the coming charts.

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um but but yeah we're now in a trail phase and it kind of feels like it you know i think there's now

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you know before people were really thinking oh the top might be in you know this might be it and now

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now you know everyone really does want to tell everyone to buy so uh so i can't wait to feel

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like a genius again uh but uh we'll see uh you know it depends a bit uh you know in my opinion

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Also, if we stay within this four-year cycle, depends on how much more upside do we get.

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Like if we get significant, like again, hype in the market and perhaps like a blow off

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top or really like fairly high prices, like maybe 200K and above, we could see like a

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prolonged bear market again.

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Like we might follow the same path.

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But if we kind of keep on moving in the structural way that we have been, yeah, maybe this time

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might be different.

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So, yeah, it's too early to tell still.

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What do you think is driving the Bitcoin price at the moment?

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Because normally when you see Bitcoin flying, the volumes on the exchange data go through the roof.

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And that doesn't seem to be happening from what I've seen so far.

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So is this all coming through ETFs?

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Where is the buy side coming from?

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Yeah, so there's definitely Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs that have a big impact.

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So institutional interest, which is measurably there.

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I have a page on institutional adoption and we can actually track and it's growing.

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So that's very exciting to see.

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Indeed, hype is currently low.

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So we've had a bit of, well, let's maybe get into the next charts.

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So here we look at the average purchase price of short-term holders, which is currently at 100K.

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So that's pretty cool.

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We broke 100K now with the short-term holder cost basis.

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We've had a two-year bull market and we've been kind of moving up in a structural way.

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The 100K is now becoming like the support zone.

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As I said before, we kind of touched that plateau that was like this area here.

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We touched that plateau a few times and then we managed to break out now above it.

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So now this previously resistant zone now becomes support.

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What we did have so far, we had like two times a bit of an extension, right?

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We had, after DTF approval, we had a bit of hype.

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And so that allowed us to like a big lag up.

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Then we had like a, you know, a reasonable consolidation, quite a long one.

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And then the election pump, we had again, like a bit of hype in the market.

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And then that faded again.

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And so in April of this year, we had the bottom.

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And since then, we have been moving up again.

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And so it's still a little early to tell if truly like hype from retail and so forth is coming really back.

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But we've always kind of had this structural bid on the Bitcoin price.

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I even think Bitcoin treasury companies have been limiting somewhat the downside price action.

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Saylor, whenever we had a significant dip,

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Saylor would announce a billion dollar purchase.

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And that kind of limited the downside.

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There's even some evidence for that in a way like on-chain,

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to see that realized losses have been very low.

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So we'll get to some of that as well.

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But so now we have the 100K zone

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and actually that big black line that I drew there now

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is the $2 trillion market cap line.

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So we actually have a bit of confluence of a few things.

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So we have the short and older cost basis of the 100K,

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which is in the middle of that zone.

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We you know the 100K well more from like a technical analysis Now we you know we had resistance before now that becomes support and uh you know we have the two trillion market cap uh right there and i i actually

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also think like people like sailor probably won't like bitcoin to fall below the the true trillion

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dollar market cap anymore because you know we're now a multi-trillion dollar asset right that and

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so so i i'm pretty sure he would prefer to defend that that level as well and so so i think possibly

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this level might be like the new baseline for Bitcoin.

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So we obviously, like I said earlier,

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we've spent six, seven months around the 100K zone.

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Do you think that is kind of building the support

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for the next bear market?

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And that might be the next bear market floor.

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Like, because when I look at these things,

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I always think the funniest outcome is the most likely.

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And so I've had 58K in my head for a long time.

250
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But do you think that 100K support

251
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is going to be hard to get through now?

252
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Yeah, it's definitely going to be a critical level.

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So it might possibly be a new baseline because it's like the $2 trillion market cap, it's

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the 100K support.

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We're now hanging out here for a relatively long amount of time.

256
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But if we get a prolonged bear market, we tend to fall below realized price, which is

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the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.

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So where the short-term holder realized price, so the short-term holder cost basis is 100K,

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realized price which is the average purchase price of all bitcoin is at 50k so that's still

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quite low and so if you think of like uh yeah getting a prolonged bear market and falling below

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that one that would kind of still hurt but but there's still room of course that it's it is rising

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and i so i think in the next months it can get to 60 70k as well uh you know especially you know

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depending if if we get like an x lag up it starts rising faster as well because people start buying

264
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at higher prices, which moves that average purchase price up. And so it's still too early

265
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to tell. But I do think there's no real basis for a prolonged bear market at this moment.

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And I'll explain also in a bit why I think that's the case, because we've had a bit of a few resets.

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We've been moving up in a structured way. We haven't really had a huge overextension.

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And so we've had actually like fairly good resets as well, which are kind of shown on chain.

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I'll get in a bit to a chart where I can actually show this.

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But for me, that means there's just no real basis for a prolonged bear market at this point, except for maybe like macro circumstances.

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I don't think that a prolonged bear market this time would be Bitcoin related.

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It could be macro related.

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If we get a recession or if war breaks out again or whatever happens, if stocks are going to start moving significantly down, Bitcoin could go with it.

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But Bitcoin by itself at this point, I don't think can have an 80% drop from here.

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There hasn't been a buildup of unrealized profit in a way that that could happen.

276
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And so I think that's very unlikely for here.

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So actually, yeah, I do think there's still room for upside.

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I mean, on the macro side, that actually could go the other way.

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Like, it looks like Jerome Powell is going to leave his position.

280
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Trump is almost certainly going to bring someone who's a bit more dovish.

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And like, I think this could get pretty nutty.

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Indeed.

283
00:19:17,531 --> 00:19:21,731
Like, the psychological level of 100K is obviously like,

284
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those big round numbers always attract like support and resistance.

285
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but after 100k we're now at like 120 where is the next psychological level is that 150k is it 200

286
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like where do we go before we hit one of those big psychological numbers yeah i yeah i think 100

287
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like is uh it's really significant i mean maybe a round number like 200 or so uh you know i i

288
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suppose there will be some profit taking there but of course the million is the next really true

289
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like psychological number but uh but that might not happen this cycle i i do think uh you know

290
00:19:54,091 --> 00:20:00,711
that will still take another, you know, five to eight years, to be honest. But I do think prices

291
00:20:00,711 --> 00:20:07,111
above 200K are possible still this cycle. It might, you know, maybe it depends on how hype

292
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will pick up. I mean, if we get it fast, we will also get like a more fierce correction, like a

293
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bear market with like a more significant drop. But if we keep kind of moving in the structured way up

294
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and maybe ask for stocks, you know, if they do kind of the same thing, then we can gradually move

295
00:20:23,991 --> 00:20:28,251
to those levels and just have like a lag up consolidation, lag up consolidation.

296
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You know, and then because with each of those consolidations, we actually got like a fairly

297
00:20:33,551 --> 00:20:39,571
good reset of like unrealized profit that has been built up and that gets kind of reset

298
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to zero.

299
00:20:40,851 --> 00:20:44,331
And then, you know, there's again room for the next lag up.

300
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So that seems to me what's actually happening currently.

301
00:20:48,291 --> 00:20:52,151
And that is also what causes me to believe that potentially we might get a prolonged

302
00:20:52,151 --> 00:20:53,971
bull market into 2026.

303
00:20:53,991 --> 00:20:55,371
instead of the four-year cycle.

304
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But it's still to see.

305
00:20:56,971 --> 00:20:57,991
I mean, I would like to see,

306
00:20:58,131 --> 00:20:59,731
it depends a bit on, you know,

307
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where's price by the end of the year.

308
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You know, like if we really get to prices

309
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at 180, 200K or so by the end of the year,

310
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I mean, I personally think there could also,

311
00:21:09,711 --> 00:21:11,291
there's room for a bear market again.

312
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But, and it depends also in which way it happens.

313
00:21:13,811 --> 00:21:15,271
I mean, if there's really going to be like

314
00:21:15,271 --> 00:21:17,291
a lot of Bitcoin treasury companies

315
00:21:17,291 --> 00:21:20,091
that, you know, are going to take like severe risks,

316
00:21:20,451 --> 00:21:23,431
like, you know, then there's, you know,

317
00:21:23,431 --> 00:21:29,251
maybe more reason for downside than, you know, if we just get this kind of gradual move up.

318
00:21:30,191 --> 00:21:34,071
Yeah, that's definitely something I see as a risk for like causing the next bear market.

319
00:21:34,571 --> 00:21:40,471
So at the moment, while Bitcoin's ripping, the mempool is basically empty. You can get in the

320
00:21:40,471 --> 00:21:48,071
next block for one sat. Like how much does on-chain data, like how accurate can on-chain data be right

321
00:21:48,071 --> 00:21:52,851
now in the sense that so much stuff has moved off chain with ETFs, like options are becoming a bigger

322
00:21:52,851 --> 00:21:53,751
and bigger part of the market.

323
00:21:54,131 --> 00:21:56,371
How valuable is the on-chain data still?

324
00:21:57,051 --> 00:21:59,911
Yeah, so I still think it's very valuable.

325
00:22:00,371 --> 00:22:03,331
But indeed, a lot has moved to secondary markets.

326
00:22:03,331 --> 00:22:06,491
And one has to take that into consideration.

327
00:22:07,311 --> 00:22:08,851
Some of the ETFs are actually,

328
00:22:09,691 --> 00:22:15,231
their stash is basically classified as long-term holders.

329
00:22:15,451 --> 00:22:17,451
So even though there might be new entrants,

330
00:22:17,571 --> 00:22:21,191
they will not all be classified correctly necessarily by on-chain.

331
00:22:21,191 --> 00:22:25,031
But I do still think that the direction of on-chain is correct.

332
00:22:25,311 --> 00:22:31,491
I mean, also, for example, ETFs like Bitwise actually, that does show up as short-term holders.

333
00:22:32,091 --> 00:22:41,711
So maybe it's not like the absolute levels of data that is maybe representable, but the direction of where that is going is, in my opinion.

334
00:22:41,891 --> 00:22:46,111
And so I still think, yeah, there's very valuable data in on-chain.

335
00:22:46,691 --> 00:22:47,711
That makes sense.

336
00:22:47,831 --> 00:22:48,311
Okay, cool.

337
00:22:48,371 --> 00:22:49,651
So should we get into the next chart?

338
00:22:49,651 --> 00:22:55,771
Yeah, so here I wanted to show how Bitcoin has been moving up in that structured channel.

339
00:22:57,151 --> 00:23:03,151
And yeah, what I actually can see here is that, so we have this ETF pump, which kind

340
00:23:03,151 --> 00:23:06,731
of reached the top of that channel, and the same for the election pump, which reached

341
00:23:06,731 --> 00:23:07,631
the top of the channel.

342
00:23:07,991 --> 00:23:13,331
But the other price action is kind of all between that bottom and that middle part of

343
00:23:13,331 --> 00:23:14,711
the channel up.

344
00:23:14,711 --> 00:23:20,471
and so that and this is because really we had a bit of hype in in in that first leg up and also

345
00:23:20,471 --> 00:23:24,811
in that second leg up and so it depends if if hype really comes back we can again move to the

346
00:23:24,811 --> 00:23:31,631
to the top of the channel which is currently more or less at 180k um but you know if we don't uh we

347
00:23:31,631 --> 00:23:37,231
might just kind of start like hovering you know between the this middle line of the channel and

348
00:23:37,231 --> 00:23:43,211
the bottom line of the channel um so so yeah then you know we could get like a consolidation around

349
00:23:43,211 --> 00:23:49,351
the current price more or less where we are, you know. So that is, this displays how, yeah,

350
00:23:49,611 --> 00:23:54,211
what, it's really different from historical Bitcoin cycles. And I mean, you can see on the

351
00:23:54,211 --> 00:23:59,931
left edge of that chart, like the bull market in 2020, this looks completely, completely different.

352
00:24:00,671 --> 00:24:05,831
Yeah. So, and even in previous bull markets, it was even higher. But in 2020, we had like,

353
00:24:05,831 --> 00:24:11,431
of course, a lot of hype by retail in the market as well. And so we saw indeed four standard

354
00:24:11,431 --> 00:24:17,251
deviations from that short to molar cost basis, where now we had just really like a mild overvaluation

355
00:24:17,251 --> 00:24:23,671
and a mild undervaluation. So of course, the bigger you go up, the harder you crash, right?

356
00:24:23,711 --> 00:24:28,891
And then this time it has been much more structured. And I guess it is because of institutional

357
00:24:28,891 --> 00:24:34,251
demand for Bitcoin, which just has been more gradual over time, a bit less affected by price

358
00:24:34,251 --> 00:24:40,031
action and a bit of the absence of retail, really. Like we've had a bit during that ETF phase and also

359
00:24:40,031 --> 00:24:46,611
bid during the election, but we haven't reached levels similar to previous bull markets yet.

360
00:24:46,731 --> 00:24:52,531
And so that could come. And actually, if we look at the next chart, this is a, I like to use it.

361
00:24:52,531 --> 00:24:58,531
Before we move, is the reason for that because people like Saylor are just buyers regardless

362
00:24:58,531 --> 00:25:01,691
of price. Like they're not impacted by price. They just buy every week.

363
00:25:01,871 --> 00:25:08,311
Exactly. That's why I think Saylor has been limiting downside price action. And this has

364
00:25:08,311 --> 00:25:14,031
cost actually just a more gradual move up because Bitcoin treasure companies just buy on a weekly,

365
00:25:14,031 --> 00:25:18,951
monthly basis and they don't care about price. Same as El Salvador, you know, he's stacking one

366
00:25:18,951 --> 00:25:25,111
Bitcoin per day. And so you got this, uh, uh, this passive demand for Bitcoin. And, and by the way,

367
00:25:25,111 --> 00:25:30,751
like, uh, yeah, for strategy now, there might be soon the, the S and P 500 inclusion, which would,

368
00:25:30,871 --> 00:25:35,371
you know, if, if, you know, strategy gets included in the S and P 500, we're going to get lots of

369
00:25:35,371 --> 00:25:42,571
passive demand for Bitcoin again. And so I think all that demand, I mean, it puts pressure on price,

370
00:25:42,811 --> 00:25:48,711
right? But so I think it actually more limits downside than it really, you know, causes like

371
00:25:48,711 --> 00:25:53,311
gigantic upside because it's like, it's just gradual demand. So it starts to limit downside.

372
00:25:53,871 --> 00:25:57,611
And, you know, whenever there's a bit of hype, we can see that we, you know, we reach the top of the

373
00:25:57,611 --> 00:26:02,971
channel and, you know, then we get, you know, of course, a bit overextended and we, you know,

374
00:26:02,971 --> 00:26:07,031
consolidate and we do that again. And so it seems that that is happening again now.

375
00:26:07,491 --> 00:26:09,991
That makes sense. Okay, cool. So let's go on to the next one.

376
00:26:10,871 --> 00:26:14,971
Yeah. So in the next one, I wanted to show how, you know, short-term molar supply can actually

377
00:26:14,971 --> 00:26:20,651
be used as a measurement for a hype in the market. So again, we had like this huge peak of short-term

378
00:26:20,651 --> 00:26:29,011
molar supply in the 2021 bull market, where this time we just had like kind of more, you know,

379
00:26:29,011 --> 00:26:36,291
smaller peaks, you know, not, not very overextended. And, and, and so, and now we,

380
00:26:36,371 --> 00:26:41,431
we are kind of forming this bottom formation again. So we've had like a peak, we, we, we formed

381
00:26:41,431 --> 00:26:46,171
a bottom, we had again, a bit of a hype and then we're forming now, it seems like we're forming a

382
00:26:46,171 --> 00:26:50,451
bottom again. And so it depends. So if we get like hype, if hype really starts to build up,

383
00:26:50,471 --> 00:26:54,231
it's still just a little early to tell, you know, we could start moving sideways as well,

384
00:26:54,231 --> 00:26:58,331
or it's still down from here. So it's not like guaranteed, but I'm, I'm tracking this pattern

385
00:26:58,331 --> 00:27:04,211
as well. And, you know, if we start to move up significantly here, then I also believe there's

386
00:27:04,211 --> 00:27:09,251
like more room for that upside to reach like levels to 180k, like the top of the channel

387
00:27:09,251 --> 00:27:13,151
currently. Is it sustainable for Bitcoin to reach the top of this channel in the short term? Or do

388
00:27:13,151 --> 00:27:18,151
we want it just hovering around that midline and just gradually grinding upwards? Personally,

389
00:27:18,151 --> 00:27:24,271
I prefer like gradual adoption. I mean, I prefer actually to have limited downside and just like

390
00:27:24,271 --> 00:27:25,271
a constant upside.

391
00:27:25,731 --> 00:27:26,611
But that would mean

392
00:27:26,611 --> 00:27:27,491
that we would move out

393
00:27:27,491 --> 00:27:28,411
of the four-year cycle.

394
00:27:28,671 --> 00:27:29,391
Now, psychologically,

395
00:27:29,791 --> 00:27:30,771
I don't know if that's possible

396
00:27:30,771 --> 00:27:31,951
because we're all human beings.

397
00:27:32,111 --> 00:27:32,511
We're emotional.

398
00:27:32,951 --> 00:27:33,971
You know, if we get the trill

399
00:27:33,971 --> 00:27:35,051
and the four-year phase,

400
00:27:35,671 --> 00:27:36,371
you know, maybe we'll get

401
00:27:36,371 --> 00:27:38,271
a huge demand wave here.

402
00:27:38,631 --> 00:27:39,791
That might happen, you know.

403
00:27:39,831 --> 00:27:40,811
So it depends a bit on,

404
00:27:41,531 --> 00:27:42,551
you know, if that happens,

405
00:27:42,611 --> 00:27:44,091
if we continue in the four-year cycle

406
00:27:44,091 --> 00:27:45,151
or if that doesn't happen.

407
00:27:45,251 --> 00:27:46,571
Like if we would just go flat

408
00:27:46,571 --> 00:27:47,731
until the end of this year here,

409
00:27:48,111 --> 00:27:49,991
then I indeed don't think

410
00:27:49,991 --> 00:27:50,891
we could reach the top

411
00:27:50,891 --> 00:27:51,911
of that channel as easily.

412
00:27:52,371 --> 00:27:53,811
We might just move

413
00:27:53,811 --> 00:28:00,051
the bottom part of that channel and uh you know but then there's also maybe not so much uh like

414
00:28:00,051 --> 00:28:04,691
there's no real basis for a prolonged bear market because we you know we haven't over extended yeah

415
00:28:05,811 --> 00:28:13,971
so in a way like these these uh these huge peaks of short molar supply are uh just a build up of

416
00:28:13,971 --> 00:28:19,331
of unrealized profit which is unsustainable you know and then and then you know it comes crashing

417
00:28:19,331 --> 00:28:23,571
down and it's a natural part of the cycle obviously yeah i mean i love to see this i

418
00:28:23,571 --> 00:28:27,071
I think a more sustainable, longer bull market is good for everyone.

419
00:28:27,891 --> 00:28:28,951
I also think so.

420
00:28:29,051 --> 00:28:33,731
But people will find it boring and will say like, oh, TradFi is taking over Bitcoin.

421
00:28:34,271 --> 00:28:37,591
And in a way, that might be the case.

422
00:28:37,591 --> 00:28:41,791
I actually do think Bitcoin treasure companies are potentially limiting downside price action.

423
00:28:42,131 --> 00:28:43,631
But I don't think it's a negative.

424
00:28:43,931 --> 00:28:48,151
I think, personally, I think Bitcoin is like the Trojan horse.

425
00:28:48,331 --> 00:28:49,511
I mean, it will infiltrate.

426
00:28:49,511 --> 00:28:54,251
like wall street might think that they now are controlling bitcoin somehow like you know maybe

427
00:28:54,251 --> 00:28:59,471
by limiting downside or uh you know or just that they can still have an influence on the market

428
00:28:59,471 --> 00:29:06,511
but eventually i mean we're gonna have sound money and then the fiat games will stop you know so so

429
00:29:06,511 --> 00:29:12,531
so i think uh it's the other way around i think bitcoin is infiltrating into the into the

430
00:29:12,531 --> 00:29:17,611
traditional financial system and and not the financial system uh you know taking over bitcoin

431
00:29:17,611 --> 00:29:18,951
which some claim.

432
00:29:20,231 --> 00:29:20,411
Yeah.

433
00:29:20,691 --> 00:29:22,051
So on this chart,

434
00:29:22,331 --> 00:29:24,891
you can see obviously the previous bull market

435
00:29:24,891 --> 00:29:25,731
compared to this one

436
00:29:25,731 --> 00:29:27,791
and they look structurally completely different.

437
00:29:28,631 --> 00:29:31,271
A lot of people have compared this cycle to 2017.

438
00:29:32,131 --> 00:29:33,491
Do you have any charts on here

439
00:29:33,491 --> 00:29:34,631
that show like this,

440
00:29:34,971 --> 00:29:36,871
the comparisons, the two side by side?

441
00:29:36,931 --> 00:29:39,351
And do you think this time looks like 2017?

442
00:29:40,351 --> 00:29:40,551
Yeah.

443
00:29:40,691 --> 00:29:43,071
So let's get a bit into the evidence

444
00:29:43,071 --> 00:29:46,231
also why I think we could get a prolonged bull market

445
00:29:46,231 --> 00:29:50,471
and also why structurally this cycle is a little bit different, even than 2017.

446
00:29:50,951 --> 00:29:54,391
So in this chart, we're actually looking at short-term holder profit.

447
00:29:54,651 --> 00:29:58,511
So we're looking at the amount of supply of short-term holders that is in profit.

448
00:29:58,711 --> 00:30:02,891
And what we see is generally in a bull market, so let's take 2017 as an example.

449
00:30:02,991 --> 00:30:03,851
It's a very good example.

450
00:30:04,431 --> 00:30:06,271
We see this huge buildup.

451
00:30:06,371 --> 00:30:12,651
It's still volatile, of course, but there's like a clear buildup of unrealized profit for short-term holders,

452
00:30:12,651 --> 00:30:14,691
which at some point becomes unsustainable.

453
00:30:14,691 --> 00:30:18,611
And then we come crashing down hard when we get this prolonged bear market.

454
00:30:18,811 --> 00:30:29,791
And those red signals are actually, you know, when we get like a big crash near zero, those indicate like severe crashes and potential local bottoms.

455
00:30:30,831 --> 00:30:38,671
And so, you know, we had so after a huge buildup of unrealized profit, we get like also a prolonged bear market.

456
00:30:38,671 --> 00:30:45,831
and in 2021 or in the 2019 we had a bit of an early run-up which then also caused here was also

457
00:30:45,831 --> 00:30:51,931
the covid crash still which was a bit of an outlier so it was but but after that 2019 run-up

458
00:30:51,931 --> 00:30:57,951
we had a bit of a correction the chinese ponzi that won in 2019 exactly yeah it was that one yeah

459
00:30:57,951 --> 00:31:02,951
it caused the market to to go up like actually early in the cycle but then we had a heavy

460
00:31:02,951 --> 00:31:06,851
correction because again it wasn't sustainable it was not yet time really to move up you know

461
00:31:06,851 --> 00:31:10,731
like significantly. Then we had the COVID crash here right before the third halving, which caused

462
00:31:10,731 --> 00:31:15,611
again, one of those signals to, you know, that was a bit of an outlier in a way, because then

463
00:31:15,611 --> 00:31:21,111
actually, you know, we started to have buildup again of that unrealized profit for short-term

464
00:31:21,111 --> 00:31:26,071
holders. And then that was again followed by a long, prolonged bear market. But this time,

465
00:31:26,411 --> 00:31:45,542
we had actually limited buildup of that profit and we had to reach that ever since you know So and to me it seems like this is exactly what gonna happen again What are those pink lines on here What do they represent So they actually are a reset of profit Like so all the unrealized profit that in the market

466
00:31:45,542 --> 00:31:54,522
gets completely evaporated. And so it's actually, in a way, a reset of the severity of bear markets.

467
00:31:54,882 --> 00:32:00,702
And so to me, what that means is that, you know, we just had it in April. And so in a way,

468
00:32:00,702 --> 00:32:06,222
we start with a clean slate again you know like and so uh so there that's why i also think we could

469
00:32:06,222 --> 00:32:11,302
potentially get like a prolonged bull market and why there's no real like basis for a prolonged

470
00:32:11,302 --> 00:32:16,422
bear market at this stage because we just had a reset and we're again moving up in the structural

471
00:32:16,422 --> 00:32:22,502
pattern with more passive demand for bitcoin and and so uh so yeah that's that's what i you know

472
00:32:22,502 --> 00:32:28,742
think is likely to happen but i see compared to 2017 there was there was none of those like we

473
00:32:28,742 --> 00:32:34,442
had i don't know how long that is two exactly yeah a single reset exactly yeah it was just build up

474
00:32:34,442 --> 00:32:39,542
and then uh yeah of course unsustainable and prolonged bear market and and so this time is

475
00:32:39,542 --> 00:32:45,122
very different in that sense um you know we haven't have we haven't had as much retail hype

476
00:32:45,122 --> 00:32:50,422
uh you know it's just been more the structural demand and so yeah indeed it is a change in in

477
00:32:50,422 --> 00:32:55,782
in in the dynamic of the cycle and we're still human so we're still in the four-year cycle and

478
00:32:55,782 --> 00:33:00,142
we're still approaching the thrill and euphoria phase and so i don't know how much influence will

479
00:33:00,142 --> 00:33:04,782
that have like you know it depends also if we start to get this build up now in the next five

480
00:33:04,782 --> 00:33:11,882
months like to peak like similar to maybe 2020 2020 or 2021 uh you know maybe then indeed we do

481
00:33:11,882 --> 00:33:16,262
get a prolonged bear market but if we kind of just keep hoovering at these levels i think it's it's

482
00:33:16,262 --> 00:33:21,422
fairly likely that we just continue to structure channel up it looks far more sustainable you're

483
00:33:21,422 --> 00:33:22,262
making me bullish here.

484
00:33:22,262 --> 00:33:23,082
It does.

485
00:33:23,082 --> 00:33:23,922
Yeah.

486
00:33:23,922 --> 00:33:28,022
Yeah, and if we then look at actually the realized profit

487
00:33:28,022 --> 00:33:31,422
and loss, and in particular, realized loss,

488
00:33:31,422 --> 00:33:34,102
that is also very interesting because

489
00:33:35,302 --> 00:33:38,682
like those, these red spikes actually represent

490
00:33:38,682 --> 00:33:41,922
realized losses, so where people actually capitulate.

491
00:33:41,922 --> 00:33:45,302
And so there's this dotted line that, you know,

492
00:33:45,302 --> 00:33:48,422
you can see in the bear market bottom, for example, of 2018,

493
00:33:48,422 --> 00:33:50,242
you have this huge spike which even reaches

494
00:33:50,242 --> 00:33:56,942
that dotted line. And so this really could be seen as a capitulation event. And so, so far for two

495
00:33:56,942 --> 00:34:02,642
years, we have hardly had a spike. And so to me, that means there has been very limited down,

496
00:34:02,742 --> 00:34:07,822
like muted downside. And I think it's because of Bitcoin treasury companies, structural buying

497
00:34:07,822 --> 00:34:12,102
from institutions, ETFs, like these passive demands into Bitcoin, which have just caused

498
00:34:12,102 --> 00:34:17,982
limited downside. Now, we also haven't seen the heights of realized profit as we have

499
00:34:17,982 --> 00:34:19,582
during previous bull markets.

500
00:34:19,662 --> 00:34:20,382
That might still come.

501
00:34:20,462 --> 00:34:21,902
Maybe we still get a spike like that.

502
00:34:22,202 --> 00:34:23,142
But it depends, of course.

503
00:34:23,242 --> 00:34:24,762
Like the higher price moves up,

504
00:34:25,182 --> 00:34:27,542
yeah, more profit will be taken by long term.

505
00:34:27,542 --> 00:34:30,242
I still think many haulers are not very interesting

506
00:34:30,242 --> 00:34:31,362
in selling at these prices.

507
00:34:31,782 --> 00:34:34,442
Maybe if we get to 140 or 200 again.

508
00:34:34,942 --> 00:34:38,802
Of course, there was some selling around that 100K zone.

509
00:34:39,702 --> 00:34:41,362
But I still think, you know,

510
00:34:41,422 --> 00:34:43,642
people have been waiting for 100K Bitcoin

511
00:34:43,642 --> 00:34:45,402
for more than a cycle.

512
00:34:45,402 --> 00:34:49,062
And so 100K just doesn't feel high anymore to most people.

513
00:34:49,222 --> 00:34:51,822
You know, it just feels like we should have been here a long time ago.

514
00:34:52,342 --> 00:34:54,882
It's totally true, but it's a wild thing to say.

515
00:34:55,482 --> 00:34:57,822
Do you think the part of the reason that these,

516
00:34:58,002 --> 00:35:00,522
we might not be having the same sort of capitulation spikes

517
00:35:00,522 --> 00:35:04,602
is down to sort of education on people understanding what Bitcoin actually is.

518
00:35:04,882 --> 00:35:05,882
And it's not going to die.

519
00:35:05,962 --> 00:35:06,922
It's not going to go away.

520
00:35:07,022 --> 00:35:10,102
So it stops the kind of panic selling.

521
00:35:10,962 --> 00:35:15,382
I think there's definitely conviction, you know, in long term holders.

522
00:35:15,482 --> 00:35:16,722
That has been true.

523
00:35:17,002 --> 00:35:19,582
But indeed, the pattern is just more obvious now.

524
00:35:19,682 --> 00:35:23,642
You know, we have the natural, the power law that Bitcoin is following.

525
00:35:23,862 --> 00:35:33,062
It's just unlikely to stop, you know, like, you know, a bit like if you think Bitcoin goes either to a million or to zero, I think it's so much more likely that it goes to a million.

526
00:35:33,222 --> 00:35:33,402
Right.

527
00:35:33,402 --> 00:35:38,222
And so, so I think, you know, people in general, maybe, I mean, some people want to take profit.

528
00:35:38,222 --> 00:35:44,262
Maybe they want to buy a house or a car or whatever, you know, at a certain price level for everyone that is a bit different.

529
00:35:44,922 --> 00:36:00,762
But I think in general, yeah, there's a big, there's a large group of haltlers that use Bitcoin as a savings vehicle, you know, like, you know, instead of real estate, which used to be the savings vehicle for the boomer generation.

530
00:36:01,342 --> 00:36:06,622
Do you think there could also be another thing that's going to prevent people from profit taking in the same way as previously,

531
00:36:06,622 --> 00:36:13,962
in the sense that the sort of financial services around Bitcoin have got so much better, taking loans out against your Bitcoin and things like that?

532
00:36:15,042 --> 00:36:16,602
Yeah, and that is still in the making.

533
00:36:16,602 --> 00:36:22,222
I mean, using Bitcoin as collateral for a loan with your own bank, that would be amazing.

534
00:36:22,362 --> 00:36:24,562
And that seems to be coming as well in the US, at least.

535
00:36:24,742 --> 00:36:28,602
Europe is still, you know, far away from that point at this moment in time.

536
00:36:28,602 --> 00:36:32,302
But in the U.S., that seems very likely that that's going to happen.

537
00:36:32,942 --> 00:36:41,262
And that will, again, be one of those steps for Bitcoin to become more mature as the reserve asset.

538
00:36:41,502 --> 00:36:43,902
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solutions.com forward slash wbd things are looking good ru okay let's get on to the next chart

580
00:39:24,822 --> 00:39:31,262
yeah so uh you know we just looked at like signals for like local bottoms you know by uh by ways of

581
00:39:31,262 --> 00:39:36,882
short-term holder profit but i've also built a short-term holder momentum indicator which helps

582
00:39:36,882 --> 00:39:40,222
was actually more identify these local tops.

583
00:39:40,762 --> 00:39:44,362
And so again, you see these red vertical lines.

584
00:39:44,482 --> 00:39:45,822
Those are actually pullback signals.

585
00:39:46,362 --> 00:39:50,142
And so this cycle we have had two so far.

586
00:39:50,802 --> 00:39:53,102
And so what I'm also waiting again for is like,

587
00:39:53,202 --> 00:39:57,222
I think there's still room for like in this lag up

588
00:39:57,222 --> 00:39:59,022
because we haven't had a spike here yet.

589
00:39:59,022 --> 00:40:02,042
So I was kind of waiting for this spike to happen.

590
00:40:02,402 --> 00:40:05,942
Of course, if there's like gonna be more buildup of hype.

591
00:40:05,942 --> 00:40:12,922
So, for example, by looking at short molar supply, like a peak there, then it's also more likely that this will start to spike.

592
00:40:13,482 --> 00:40:20,802
And as soon as it starts to drop, we get a pullback signal fired.

593
00:40:21,322 --> 00:40:32,582
And that might, again, indicate a local top or potentially a cycle peak, depending on how much of that buildup has been there from profit, unrealized profit.

594
00:40:32,582 --> 00:40:55,762
So if we kind of get mild, unrealized profit buildup, and we get like a pullback signal, then again, I think, you know, we could just continue in the structural pattern. But if we get like, yeah, a large buildup of, you know, if we got more hype in the market, and we get a large buildup, you know, that like one of these signals could potentially indicate the start of a next bear market.

595
00:40:55,762 --> 00:41:00,742
And so I don't want to put you on the spot here, but I also do want to put you on the spot in a way.

596
00:41:00,902 --> 00:41:04,042
Like, what do you think the top of this bull market is going to look like?

597
00:41:05,262 --> 00:41:06,362
Yeah, that's a good.

598
00:41:06,442 --> 00:41:08,122
I mean, I've been kind of consistent.

599
00:41:08,302 --> 00:41:11,542
I think 240K has always been kind of my estimate.

600
00:41:12,102 --> 00:41:18,002
So I'm not, to be honest, that would kind of be my maximum estimate.

601
00:41:19,262 --> 00:41:20,922
But yeah, it depends much.

602
00:41:20,922 --> 00:41:25,162
Like, as I said, like, do we get really hype still in the next coming months?

603
00:41:25,162 --> 00:41:26,702
And do we continue in the four-year cycle?

604
00:41:27,182 --> 00:41:30,142
Or do we continue like a structural pattern?

605
00:41:30,882 --> 00:41:33,982
Because then we just have a more gradual move up.

606
00:41:34,442 --> 00:41:37,282
And then, you know, that means basically lower for longer

607
00:41:37,282 --> 00:41:41,742
instead of like having a huge overextension to some random price,

608
00:41:42,082 --> 00:41:43,422
which could be $180.

609
00:41:43,522 --> 00:41:45,662
I mean, it could be $160, $180.

610
00:41:45,862 --> 00:41:46,602
It could be $240.

611
00:41:46,802 --> 00:41:51,782
You know, like that depends on how much hype or how crazy the market will go.

612
00:41:51,922 --> 00:41:53,642
But so far, it looks more structural.

613
00:41:53,642 --> 00:41:58,142
And so I think that that might prolong the bull market.

614
00:41:58,802 --> 00:42:03,102
And, you know, there's actually some evidence, which I just showed, like, you know, because

615
00:42:03,102 --> 00:42:08,142
we had a proper cleans of the market with like a reset recently in April, and we kind

616
00:42:08,142 --> 00:42:09,242
of start with a clean slate.

617
00:42:09,462 --> 00:42:14,502
Like maybe if we just like continue this gradual pattern, we could move into 2026 and still

618
00:42:14,502 --> 00:42:18,022
continue gradually up with like longer sideways price action.

619
00:42:18,142 --> 00:42:22,042
And it might be boring for people and people will again be confused like, oh, is this the

620
00:42:22,042 --> 00:42:22,342
top?

621
00:42:22,402 --> 00:42:23,042
Is the top in?

622
00:42:23,642 --> 00:42:26,502
But I think, yeah, much is also going to depend on macro.

623
00:42:26,822 --> 00:42:29,422
With Bitcoin being at a 2 trillion market cap,

624
00:42:29,462 --> 00:42:32,302
it's now like really a mature asset.

625
00:42:33,462 --> 00:42:37,282
And so I think macro events might be even,

626
00:42:37,902 --> 00:42:41,162
you know, have more influence on Bitcoin's behavior

627
00:42:41,162 --> 00:42:44,922
to move into a bear market than Bitcoin price action itself.

628
00:42:45,722 --> 00:42:49,322
Because within Bitcoin, actually, everything is fairly well.

629
00:42:49,322 --> 00:42:52,362
Actually, from a regulation standpoint of view,

630
00:42:52,362 --> 00:42:59,222
like in the US at least, it's going great. And, you know, we've actually had like a proper reset

631
00:42:59,222 --> 00:43:04,622
of crypto in 2022. Dominance is going up. Bitcoin treasury companies kind of took the stage of

632
00:43:04,622 --> 00:43:10,102
altcoins. You know, for me, technologically, Bitcoin is developing. We have like, you know,

633
00:43:10,182 --> 00:43:15,022
e-cash, lightning, it's all getting more integrated. And so there's really limited,

634
00:43:15,562 --> 00:43:21,982
like within Bitcoin itself, like on a protocol level, you know, everything looks actually

635
00:43:21,982 --> 00:43:27,282
fantastic, but it's the macro uncertainty that probably might cause some damage.

636
00:43:28,102 --> 00:43:33,542
In terms of Bitcoin dominance, it's obviously been crushing. I think Ethereum is still way

637
00:43:33,542 --> 00:43:37,522
below its previous all-time high, which I'm sorry to anyone listening who holds Ethereum,

638
00:43:37,622 --> 00:43:41,962
but I love to see it. Sell your Ethereum and buy Bitcoin. Do you think that's going to continue?

639
00:43:41,962 --> 00:43:49,762
you? Yeah, I mean, so again, so if we really got like a hype phase still in the market, like into

640
00:43:49,762 --> 00:43:57,402
in this next five months, let's say, I also think there's still some potential for altcoins to

641
00:43:57,402 --> 00:44:01,742
outperform Bitcoin temporarily, you know, like because, you know, they're just smaller market

642
00:44:01,742 --> 00:44:07,202
caps or more easily to move and or like whatever. There can be again a meme coin that does very well

643
00:44:07,202 --> 00:44:13,382
suddenly, you know, for a short amount of time, obviously. But I think, yeah, I think 2022 in

644
00:44:13,382 --> 00:44:19,622
general was very damaging to the crypto narrative in general and hopefully permanent, to be honest.

645
00:44:19,622 --> 00:44:24,822
And I actually, I also like to see how Bitcoin treasury companies are kind of taking the stage

646
00:44:24,822 --> 00:44:30,722
of what used to be altcoins, you know, like you actually can use leverage Bitcoin with Bitcoin

647
00:44:30,722 --> 00:44:35,502
treasury companies. And so you can, you know, the gambling can continue there, but at least it's

648
00:44:35,502 --> 00:44:41,142
based on Bitcoin. And it's kind of a speculative attack on fiat. So I much rather see that than

649
00:44:41,142 --> 00:44:48,342
some random entrepreneurs trying to scam people. I totally agree with that. And when we've talked

650
00:44:48,342 --> 00:44:53,182
here, like a lot of this demand is structural, institutional demand for Bitcoin. And we've

651
00:44:53,182 --> 00:44:57,282
really not seen retail come back in the same way that we have in previous bull markets.

652
00:44:57,842 --> 00:45:02,162
Do you think at some point, if we do get into that hype stage, retail will come back? Or

653
00:45:02,162 --> 00:45:08,482
So to things like just the unit bias, the fact that Bitcoin is now $120,000, is that just putting off the retail investors?

654
00:45:09,442 --> 00:45:10,602
Yeah, in a way it is.

655
00:45:10,962 --> 00:45:14,002
Of course, with Bitcoin treasury companies, they have different prices.

656
00:45:14,182 --> 00:45:18,202
And so there's the unit bias problem is a bit solved.

657
00:45:18,342 --> 00:45:19,562
So that's actually nice to see.

658
00:45:20,282 --> 00:45:25,822
But indeed, it's becoming harder and harder to become a whole coiner, right?

659
00:45:25,922 --> 00:45:29,302
So there's unit bias when Bitcoin, that is a bit of a problem.

660
00:45:29,422 --> 00:45:31,162
I also think it's the market gap.

661
00:45:31,162 --> 00:45:33,182
I mean, we are at the two trillion market cap.

662
00:45:33,322 --> 00:45:44,022
And so, you know, retail as a whole doesn't have as much impact as it used to do, you know, like on a market cap that was 500 billion or so.

663
00:45:44,642 --> 00:45:46,642
And now it's four times bigger.

664
00:45:47,202 --> 00:45:49,322
You know, it has less impact.

665
00:45:49,482 --> 00:45:54,042
And so, you know, I think institutional demand, therefore, is needed.

666
00:45:54,042 --> 00:45:58,622
And so I'd love to see, you know, the S&P 500 inclusion of strategy.

667
00:45:58,622 --> 00:46:05,742
That would, again, put a lot of passive demand for Bitcoin.

668
00:46:06,542 --> 00:46:09,102
And as you said, you called it already.

669
00:46:09,782 --> 00:46:18,502
If interest rates will be cut, that would also be really a trigger for a bull market.

670
00:46:18,662 --> 00:46:25,802
And so maybe we're just waiting for that moment to get a hype phase as we saw in 2020, 2021.

671
00:46:25,802 --> 00:46:31,582
on. And based on human psychology, that's actually the more likely outcome, right? Because, you know,

672
00:46:31,622 --> 00:46:35,962
people are not good at structural like moves and gradual increases, you know, like it's,

673
00:46:35,962 --> 00:46:43,602
that is more like a phase that happens before the explosion. And so, you know, I think,

674
00:46:44,162 --> 00:46:48,842
although, I mean, passive demand definitely causes limited downside. So that is true. But,

675
00:46:48,922 --> 00:46:55,682
but yeah, from a psychology standpoint of view, you know, if we're now in a trail phase and people

676
00:46:55,682 --> 00:47:01,702
actually start recommending everyone again to buy, you know, maybe we will get like a retail hype

677
00:47:01,702 --> 00:47:07,542
wave still in the next months. Yeah, I'll be interested to see what happens there. All right,

678
00:47:07,562 --> 00:47:12,742
let's move on to the next one. Yeah, so we're getting to the end. I just wanted to kind of

679
00:47:12,742 --> 00:47:32,753
close down with like the on value map And I still have a 3D spiral version of this as well but in the on value map I tried to use on data to you know to have like a heavy undervalue level and heavy overvalue levels and all the levels in

680
00:47:32,753 --> 00:47:37,953
between of where price can go. So actually we have a fair price which is currently at 80k

681
00:47:37,953 --> 00:47:42,993
and we can see here also actually coincides with that upper part of the channel. We have the the

682
00:47:42,993 --> 00:47:45,753
the 180K as the heavy overvalue level.

683
00:47:46,213 --> 00:47:49,033
And so to reach like those heavy overvalue levels,

684
00:47:49,153 --> 00:47:51,353
we of course need like hype in the market,

685
00:47:51,533 --> 00:47:53,933
like a bit of actually unsustainable height,

686
00:47:54,053 --> 00:47:55,353
you know, because if we reach those levels,

687
00:47:55,453 --> 00:47:56,573
that's usually unsustainable.

688
00:47:57,333 --> 00:47:59,313
But what we can see now is currently

689
00:47:59,313 --> 00:48:03,153
we have kind of been hoovering in that overvalued zone,

690
00:48:03,353 --> 00:48:05,173
like to the upper part of the overvalued zone

691
00:48:05,173 --> 00:48:06,973
to the bottom of that overvalued zone.

692
00:48:07,373 --> 00:48:10,693
And we're now more or less at that overvalued level price

693
00:48:10,693 --> 00:48:12,293
at 120K.

694
00:48:12,293 --> 00:48:18,373
and so yeah i don't know if we will get to have overvalued as i said that depends very much if we

695
00:48:18,373 --> 00:48:24,113
really get like hype back in the market which we should probably know soon by looking at short

696
00:48:24,113 --> 00:48:28,653
molar supply like is that continue to move up or are we just going to go sideways there you know

697
00:48:28,653 --> 00:48:33,293
like if there starts to be a build-up that would mean for me like okay actually those price ranges

698
00:48:33,293 --> 00:48:37,853
are possible but if we start sideways it's more likely that we'll continue just around that

699
00:48:37,853 --> 00:48:43,613
overvalued range, which these levels are all moving up generally as well. So if we're in five

700
00:48:43,613 --> 00:48:50,193
months, where like fair price is not going to be 80k, it might be 95k or so, you know, and so that

701
00:48:50,193 --> 00:48:57,853
starts to move up as well. But yeah, so I think this has been pretty spot on. And this is based

702
00:48:57,853 --> 00:49:03,913
on on-chain data. So we actually look at coin days destroyed. So the amount of coins that,

703
00:49:03,913 --> 00:49:12,733
you know, if a coin moves, a coin builds up days as it actually sits silent. And as soon as there's

704
00:49:12,733 --> 00:49:19,733
a transaction, like each coin has an age. And so the age measured in days gets destroyed. And

705
00:49:19,733 --> 00:49:25,593
actually based on that information, we can kind of have this bottom indicator here of this chart.

706
00:49:25,673 --> 00:49:29,773
So the heavy overvalued level is actually based on that information. If a lot of long-term holders

707
00:49:29,773 --> 00:49:37,933
start selling, then a lot of coins, coin days gets destroyed. And then so that kind of marks

708
00:49:37,933 --> 00:49:43,693
that we use that information to calculate that undervalue level. And for the top level,

709
00:49:43,693 --> 00:49:48,333
I actually have a different approach. So there actually I look at tradable supply. So actually

710
00:49:48,333 --> 00:49:53,273
supply that's quite active because a lot of supply is kind of liquid because, you know,

711
00:49:53,273 --> 00:49:58,253
it just sits in long-term holder wallets or cold storage and it doesn't move.

712
00:49:58,833 --> 00:50:03,913
But the actual tradable supply, so that's all of the circulating supply

713
00:50:03,913 --> 00:50:07,993
minus that illiquid supply, that is actually the supply

714
00:50:07,993 --> 00:50:10,073
that has much more impact on price action.

715
00:50:10,073 --> 00:50:14,413
And so what I use there is actually by looking at capital inflows,

716
00:50:14,633 --> 00:50:18,013
because we can actually see how much capital is flowing into the market,

717
00:50:18,133 --> 00:50:19,013
at least on chain.

718
00:50:19,013 --> 00:50:23,433
and so we use that information to calculate that top

719
00:50:23,433 --> 00:50:25,953
and this has been spot on.

720
00:50:26,113 --> 00:50:29,413
I made this value map years ago

721
00:50:29,413 --> 00:50:33,813
and it's called perfectly the bottom of the 2022 bear market

722
00:50:33,813 --> 00:50:36,833
and it's now, it seems to be doing fairly well as well

723
00:50:36,833 --> 00:50:40,033
with those overvalue levels based on, for example,

724
00:50:40,093 --> 00:50:41,473
if we look at the channel that we're in

725
00:50:41,473 --> 00:50:44,173
and it kind of coincides with that overvalued zone,

726
00:50:44,253 --> 00:50:45,673
which to me is kind of interesting.

727
00:50:45,773 --> 00:50:48,033
Even the top of the channel is the 180K price.

728
00:50:48,033 --> 00:50:50,953
So there's some confluence there as well again.

729
00:50:52,053 --> 00:50:55,713
So before I brought up the mempools being pretty much empty at the moment,

730
00:50:56,213 --> 00:50:58,873
is that actually bullish when it comes to on-chain data

731
00:50:58,873 --> 00:51:02,333
because there's less transactions that are destroying the coin days?

732
00:51:03,213 --> 00:51:07,513
True. Yeah, there's indeed less transactions happening on-chain.

733
00:51:10,033 --> 00:51:12,513
A lot of that has moved to secondary markets,

734
00:51:12,653 --> 00:51:15,913
and therefore I also look at ETF flows,

735
00:51:15,913 --> 00:51:20,873
and actually you know i have an etf tracker where i look at those flows i look at the institutional

736
00:51:20,873 --> 00:51:28,473
data from uh uh from the sec you know like by uh by to actually know okay how much of this of the

737
00:51:28,473 --> 00:51:34,633
etf flows are institutional then we have the treasury data you know which uh because but you

738
00:51:34,633 --> 00:51:39,913
know like some of the for example i i gave example already bitwise okay they are they're actually

739
00:51:39,913 --> 00:51:44,153
their supply is actually classified correctly but there's also some treasury companies like

740
00:51:44,153 --> 00:51:51,593
with Coinbase, which is actually quite a big part, they are likely classified as a long-term

741
00:51:51,593 --> 00:51:57,373
holder supply, where some of it should be short-term holder as well. And so, yeah, indeed,

742
00:51:57,473 --> 00:52:03,973
you get a disconnect. And so that is context that should be taken into consideration as well.

743
00:52:04,493 --> 00:52:13,253
But so far, yeah, I think the on-chain data still has done really well. And I tried to take those

744
00:52:13,253 --> 00:52:19,113
things into consideration of course the context is important and as i said also the the absolute

745
00:52:19,113 --> 00:52:26,153
values of uh like supply or or like they don't matter it's also the direction that matters and

746
00:52:26,153 --> 00:52:32,273
i still think in the direction there's still like you know you know only if there's a few etfs that

747
00:52:32,273 --> 00:52:38,253
are classified correctly you will see like the direction of of of that flow in the right direction

748
00:52:38,253 --> 00:52:42,273
And so more so than in absolute terms.

749
00:52:42,833 --> 00:52:56,433
And so, yeah, I think on-chain, of course, you know, the bigger the market and more complex the market gets, the more we need to look at, you know, a whole range of things like, you know, futures and options data as well.

750
00:52:56,433 --> 00:53:01,313
You know, and so the ETF, that's a whole separate part.

751
00:53:01,393 --> 00:53:06,913
But I still think on-chain plays a vital part and has so much information.

752
00:53:06,913 --> 00:53:14,853
You know, if we think of the Bitcoin blockchain, like we think of Bitcoin as like the most valuable ledger.

753
00:53:15,293 --> 00:53:20,273
Right. But so that ledger also includes super valuable data.

754
00:53:20,493 --> 00:53:22,473
Right. And so that's basically what we're using.

755
00:53:22,613 --> 00:53:28,293
So if you think that that Bitcoin is valuable, then all the data in those transactions is valuable.

756
00:53:28,293 --> 00:53:33,113
You know, and so, yes, but over time and the lightning as well.

757
00:53:33,113 --> 00:53:42,953
I mean, so if we, you know, we get a lot of more secondary markets and it will become more difficult with on-chain to measure these things correctly over time, I think, in the future.

758
00:53:43,033 --> 00:53:44,153
But we're still pretty early.

759
00:53:44,493 --> 00:53:49,813
I think there's still, yeah, a lot of insights that we can get from on-chain.

760
00:53:50,733 --> 00:53:51,573
Yeah, I think so too.

761
00:53:51,993 --> 00:53:57,693
Help me understand the Coin Days Destroyed thing because every transaction isn't a transaction to an exchange to sell.

762
00:53:57,793 --> 00:54:00,793
So how do you sort of trade those two things off against each other?

763
00:54:01,393 --> 00:54:02,313
Yeah, you don't.

764
00:54:02,313 --> 00:54:04,153
So it's just, again, a proxy.

765
00:54:04,793 --> 00:54:06,033
You try to get an estimate.

766
00:54:06,733 --> 00:54:13,233
And so what you do, as soon as there's a transaction, nobody knows if that is.

767
00:54:13,713 --> 00:54:16,033
Well, we can actually classify some exchanges.

768
00:54:16,213 --> 00:54:20,013
And so we do know some supply that is moving to exchanges and will be sold.

769
00:54:20,673 --> 00:54:25,273
But we don't know all information 100% correct every time.

770
00:54:25,273 --> 00:54:30,273
What you try to do is just to have something that is more or less correct.

771
00:54:30,273 --> 00:54:35,053
and at least significant for terms of indicators.

772
00:54:35,653 --> 00:54:39,733
And in general, I think that's still the case

773
00:54:39,733 --> 00:54:40,793
with on-chain transactions.

774
00:54:41,033 --> 00:54:43,013
And even though there's not that many

775
00:54:43,013 --> 00:54:44,653
on-chain transactions currently,

776
00:54:45,233 --> 00:54:49,073
that is also because actually hype is more or less gone.

777
00:54:49,213 --> 00:54:52,013
And it's like institutional adoption

778
00:54:52,013 --> 00:54:54,233
through treasury companies and ETFs,

779
00:54:54,233 --> 00:54:55,533
which is taking part.

780
00:54:55,733 --> 00:54:57,673
And that just happens on secondary markets.

781
00:54:57,673 --> 00:54:59,873
but yeah so

782
00:54:59,873 --> 00:55:01,553
coin days destroys

783
00:55:01,553 --> 00:55:03,613
you just look at all transactions

784
00:55:03,613 --> 00:55:05,433
every transaction is just included

785
00:55:05,433 --> 00:55:07,973
and you look at the days that have been destroyed

786
00:55:07,973 --> 00:55:09,313
since it last moved

787
00:55:09,313 --> 00:55:10,513
and so the

788
00:55:10,513 --> 00:55:13,593
accumulation of all those together

789
00:55:13,593 --> 00:55:15,773
determine like how many days

790
00:55:15,773 --> 00:55:17,813
in total are destroyed on an average day

791
00:55:17,813 --> 00:55:19,693
and that information again

792
00:55:19,693 --> 00:55:20,373
we can use

793
00:55:20,373 --> 00:55:22,893
Can you filter out things like

794
00:55:22,893 --> 00:55:25,393
transactions that people just consolidating coins

795
00:55:25,393 --> 00:55:27,053
or do you not even bother doing that?

796
00:55:27,673 --> 00:55:32,673
We don't buy for some indicators you do.

797
00:55:32,673 --> 00:55:36,673
So for example, I've also made a multiplier.

798
00:55:36,673 --> 00:55:40,673
You know, the multiplier has been a bit of a hype around the multiplier.

799
00:55:40,673 --> 00:55:44,673
You know, like how much capital inflow do we have on chain?

800
00:55:44,673 --> 00:55:49,673
And then, you know, how does it reflect into the price of Bitcoin?

801
00:55:49,673 --> 00:55:51,673
Like what is the multiplier?

802
00:55:51,673 --> 00:55:56,673
For each dollar that I put in, how much upward pressure on price does it put?

803
00:55:56,673 --> 00:56:09,793
But yeah, so there actually, for example, with indicators like that, I've tried to really separate on-chain data because you can look at inflow and days of outflow and you try to like filter bad data out.

804
00:56:10,113 --> 00:56:10,733
But it doesn't happen.

805
00:56:10,933 --> 00:56:18,353
For example, for the realized price, which is the average person's price of all Bitcoin, you just look at all transactions, whether it moves or not.

806
00:56:18,353 --> 00:56:20,273
So there's some error margin there.

807
00:56:20,653 --> 00:56:24,693
But I think over time, that error margin is relatively small.

808
00:56:24,693 --> 00:56:28,133
And so that doesn't matter for the direction of that indicator.

809
00:56:28,933 --> 00:56:29,973
Yeah, that makes sense.

810
00:56:30,093 --> 00:56:30,693
Okay, cool.

811
00:56:30,813 --> 00:56:36,013
So just to close out, can we get a bit speculative, do some guesswork?

812
00:56:36,353 --> 00:56:39,813
When I spoke to Joe Carlos Aire on the podcast a few months ago,

813
00:56:39,933 --> 00:56:44,313
and he was saying, oh yeah, we've got the 3D chart as well.

814
00:56:44,693 --> 00:56:46,093
But so when I was speaking to Joe Carlos Aire,

815
00:56:46,173 --> 00:56:49,853
he was saying he thinks Bitcoin is just going to bore everyone to a million dollars.

816
00:56:50,613 --> 00:56:52,913
I would like you, if you don't mind,

817
00:56:52,913 --> 00:56:57,573
to close out with like what you think this cycle looks like both in terms of price and in terms of

818
00:56:57,573 --> 00:57:02,753
are we in for another four-year cycle or is this going to be different and i know this is speculative

819
00:57:02,753 --> 00:57:07,973
this is guesswork yeah this is very difficult well currently um you know based on the data i've

820
00:57:07,973 --> 00:57:13,893
actually showed here uh the charts we went through i i think uh there's a fair reason indeed that we

821
00:57:13,893 --> 00:57:18,953
can get a prolonged bull market and get this structural way up but uh you know i'm still

822
00:57:18,953 --> 00:57:23,793
careful and i'm skeptical because you know every cycle people have been calling for extended cycles

823
00:57:23,793 --> 00:57:29,553
and so i don't want to like i want to give the disclaimer and i uh you know it depends very much

824
00:57:29,553 --> 00:57:35,033
on how we end the year uh because you know if we look at the 3d spiral so uh so the end of the year

825
00:57:35,033 --> 00:57:41,593
is actually around that 100k uh text mark and so there's still like the five months of like green

826
00:57:41,593 --> 00:57:46,773
bullish upside so this this this 3d spiral chart is actually uh the same as the on-chain value map

827
00:57:46,773 --> 00:57:47,633
that we just looked at.

828
00:57:47,733 --> 00:57:50,453
And the fair price is actually the surface of the spiral.

829
00:57:50,933 --> 00:57:52,133
So the overextensions-

830
00:57:52,133 --> 00:57:52,893
Which is about 80K.

831
00:57:53,153 --> 00:57:54,573
Yeah, it's 80K currently.

832
00:57:54,853 --> 00:57:57,353
So it changes, of course, through the cycles.

833
00:57:57,953 --> 00:58:02,953
But so the heavy overvalue level currently, again, is 180K.

834
00:58:03,033 --> 00:58:05,233
That would give us to these top prices.

835
00:58:05,673 --> 00:58:10,733
And so we still, historically, I mean, this quadrant has been the one of bull markets

836
00:58:10,733 --> 00:58:14,233
where we never found ourselves below that fair price.

837
00:58:14,233 --> 00:58:18,253
and we actually reach that heavy overvalue level at some point.

838
00:58:18,413 --> 00:58:20,573
And so I still think there's room here

839
00:58:20,573 --> 00:58:24,293
for like more of that green price to continue.

840
00:58:24,893 --> 00:58:26,193
And it depends a bit.

841
00:58:26,333 --> 00:58:29,133
So if we get to those heavy overvalue levels,

842
00:58:29,173 --> 00:58:31,193
it depends on how much hype will come into the market.

843
00:58:31,273 --> 00:58:33,173
If resale starts taking part, which could,

844
00:58:33,593 --> 00:58:34,953
because we actually start, you know,

845
00:58:35,013 --> 00:58:38,293
120K price starts sounding attractive again.

846
00:58:38,553 --> 00:58:39,933
People are getting trilled, you know,

847
00:58:39,973 --> 00:58:41,013
we're literally in that phase.

848
00:58:41,013 --> 00:58:44,353
And so where people are starting to tell people to buy.

849
00:58:44,553 --> 00:58:50,433
And so I still think that a retail hype can come towards the end of this year.

850
00:58:51,033 --> 00:58:57,693
And so depending on how overvalued we get there depends on also if we stay within the four-year cycle.

851
00:58:57,773 --> 00:59:03,933
Because if retail doesn't really come in and we just continue this kind of gradual path as we have been, which we can keep measuring,

852
00:59:04,793 --> 00:59:07,893
then I actually think a prolonged bull market is possible.

853
00:59:07,893 --> 00:59:11,613
and we won't because then there's no basis to really go into the bear market which is

854
00:59:11,613 --> 00:59:16,993
what i've been trying to tell you know the the whole podcast kind of that currently there isn't

855
00:59:16,993 --> 00:59:22,353
because we just had like a kind of healthy cleans of the market and and i don't think we're we're

856
00:59:22,353 --> 00:59:28,273
not even at like insane levels that we were like if we if you think of the previous bull market

857
00:59:28,273 --> 00:59:34,293
where we had so much built up of fdx exchange with paper bitcoin and and so much altcoin craze

858
00:59:34,293 --> 00:59:36,493
like none of that has happened so far.

859
00:59:36,613 --> 00:59:41,113
And so yes, there's leverage through Bitcoin treasury companies,

860
00:59:41,213 --> 00:59:43,593
but I think actually they're fairly sustainable companies.

861
00:59:43,793 --> 00:59:48,433
And so I don't think we're in any of those crazy times yet.

862
00:59:48,733 --> 00:59:50,673
And so we just had a cleanse of the market.

863
00:59:51,313 --> 00:59:57,473
So yeah, I mean, I need to see how this turns out to the end of the year.

864
00:59:57,753 --> 01:00:01,293
So if we get like overextended to heavy overvalue levels by the end of the year,

865
01:00:01,293 --> 01:00:04,853
I actually think there's a fair chance we stick within the four-year cycle.

866
01:00:05,033 --> 01:00:07,793
But if we just continue the gradual channel up,

867
01:00:08,773 --> 01:00:11,773
I think we can get prolonged and actually break the four-year cycle.

868
01:00:12,373 --> 01:00:15,053
I think we've mentioned it already in the pod,

869
01:00:15,093 --> 01:00:17,553
but I do think one of the things that may break the four-year cycle

870
01:00:17,553 --> 01:00:20,073
is what happens in the broader macro world.

871
01:00:20,833 --> 01:00:23,973
Trump is going to want to run things really hot into the midterms next year.

872
01:00:24,153 --> 01:00:26,913
If he brings in someone to replace Jerome Powell,

873
01:00:27,493 --> 01:00:28,893
I think things could work pretty crazy.

874
01:00:29,673 --> 01:00:30,753
Indeed, I agree.

875
01:00:30,753 --> 01:00:37,433
like the cutting interest rates will be a catalyst and but potentially also a catalyst to

876
01:00:37,433 --> 01:00:43,193
to reach those heavier over value levels i mean true if we if we would get them in january next

877
01:00:43,193 --> 01:00:48,813
year and and then you know get to heavy over value levels here you know maybe that is not sustainable

878
01:00:48,813 --> 01:00:54,933
and we get a bear market after like so so i uh i would say if we get to heavy over value it's

879
01:00:54,933 --> 01:01:00,173
more likely to continue maybe four-year cycle if we just you know stay at over value levels which

880
01:01:00,173 --> 01:01:05,773
we're currently at and just continue the gradual path with like a reset as we've seen uh like

881
01:01:05,773 --> 01:01:13,313
another local bottom uh yeah then there's uh lower for longer you know so uh we'll we'll have to see

882
01:01:13,313 --> 01:01:18,713
how this plays out i don't pretend to yeah i cannot know the future we're in wait and see mode but

883
01:01:18,713 --> 01:01:24,793
things are looking good um root i've really enjoyed this uh things are looking pretty good man we're

884
01:01:24,793 --> 01:01:30,893
we're making it. I agree, man. Bitcoin is just the best performing asset for the last

885
01:01:30,893 --> 01:01:35,313
16 years or so. So I think it will continue for the next 16 years.

886
01:01:36,133 --> 01:01:39,733
Me too. All right. I appreciate that, Ru. Where do you want to send everyone? Where can they

887
01:01:39,733 --> 01:01:44,813
kind of check out your work and follow you? Yeah, of course. I have my Substack newsletter.

888
01:01:44,993 --> 01:01:51,113
It's called BitcoinStrategy.Substack.com. And you can go to the BitcoinStrategyPlatform.com

889
01:01:51,113 --> 01:01:53,233
where you get like access to also these,

890
01:01:53,333 --> 01:01:55,913
you know, local bottom, local top indicators.

891
01:01:56,333 --> 01:01:59,573
And what I try to do is not to give an overload of charts

892
01:01:59,573 --> 01:02:00,153
to people.

893
01:02:00,333 --> 01:02:02,813
I kind of like try to guide them with each week

894
01:02:02,813 --> 01:02:04,773
through like the most important charts

895
01:02:04,773 --> 01:02:07,373
that kind of cover what's happening in Bitcoin,

896
01:02:07,493 --> 01:02:09,093
the story, like what is likely to happen,

897
01:02:09,193 --> 01:02:10,033
what to watch next.

898
01:02:10,233 --> 01:02:14,573
And so, yeah, so that is, so please sign up.

899
01:02:14,753 --> 01:02:17,813
And like there's over 20,000 subscribers now,

900
01:02:17,913 --> 01:02:19,173
so it's going fairly well.

901
01:02:19,173 --> 01:02:20,293
And yeah.

902
01:02:21,113 --> 01:02:34,713
That's amazing. Well, we've got 36 hours or so until this show goes out. So I'm just praying that Bitcoin doesn't like crash back down under 100k or go to 150k in the meantime. Hopefully it stays pretty flat before the show goes out.

903
01:02:34,713 --> 01:02:37,333
that could happen.

904
01:02:37,613 --> 01:02:38,293
I mean, either way,

905
01:02:38,393 --> 01:02:40,093
I think a consolidation is possible.

906
01:02:40,673 --> 01:02:43,073
We just reached this highly overvalued,

907
01:02:43,433 --> 01:02:44,753
or not the highly overvalued,

908
01:02:44,813 --> 01:02:45,913
but the overvalued level

909
01:02:45,913 --> 01:02:48,233
and that middle part of the channel.

910
01:02:48,453 --> 01:02:50,933
And so a bit of consolidation is fine.

911
01:02:51,713 --> 01:02:53,353
But indeed, there might be room

912
01:02:53,353 --> 01:02:55,273
for the next lag as well.

913
01:02:55,453 --> 01:02:58,073
So I'm excited to see what happens by two days.

914
01:02:59,133 --> 01:02:59,573
Me too.

915
01:02:59,693 --> 01:03:00,533
All right, thanks, Ru.

916
01:03:00,553 --> 01:03:01,513
I appreciate the time

917
01:03:01,513 --> 01:03:02,873
and I will speak to you very soon.

918
01:03:03,633 --> 01:03:04,213
Thanks, Danny.

919
01:03:04,713 --> 01:03:05,013
Thank you.