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I think this has been a very good year in terms of like fundamental Bitcoin value.

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It's easier than ever to use Bitcoin in a freedom oriented way.

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This is a long term game.

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This is a grind.

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I think the best path and the hardest path is to stay humble and stack sats and not chase

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easy wins that you think are easy that you're just going to lose all your money on.

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States are not really accumulating yet.

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Institutional players are accumulating.

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we are going to have to go through this period of sort of co-option.

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Who sits at the table of power, right?

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And there's a small club that has all of the money,

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they have all of the guns and they make all of the laws

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and none of us are in that club.

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It's going to take some time for us basically

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to get a seat at the table of power

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and be able to rewrite the rules to enable more freedom.

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And I think that if you're in Bitcoin, it's a long journey.

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It's a long bet.

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Bitcoin has to enter into the traditional system.

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If Bitcoin remains as outside capital forever,

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It never fulfills its mandate.

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How you doing, man?

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I'm ready. Let's do this.

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Let's talk about the year that sucked.

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Yeah, this.

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And why it sucked.

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Last year when we recorded this.

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Nick Carter's right.

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And he's rubbing it in your face, you know?

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Let's talk about it. Let's get into it.

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So last year when we recorded this, it was 92K.

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And I think we all kind of agreed.

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Matt put some caveats in because Matt always puts caveats in.

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but we kind of all agreed that this was going to be

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Super Cycle and the green green

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I'm sure I said a million

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I probably said a million like

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I don't know what I said

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What's happened HODL?

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I recall saying that if it was

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similar to previous cycles

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2 million was in play

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I think I said that

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You said 2 million in 2025

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No I didn't make it a call

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it wasn't a call I just said

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if it was similar to previous cycles

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then 2 million would be in play

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Damn

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Yeah, it's probably the year where I think everyone was wrong, though.

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When Matt said that, they liked it.

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I remember that.

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It's like it's the only year of Bitcoin I remember where I don't think anyone's got it right.

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Like normally when years like are turning bearish, there's always someone like last cycle was Dan Held calling Super Cycle.

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But there's always someone who's like right calling the top.

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And I don't think anyone did that a year out.

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No, not at all.

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I think, I mean, I guess the my feeling about it has been that we, the Bitcoin influencer class, have become superfluous and that we kind of don't have the money to pump this thing anymore.

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I think it was Matt who actually said, like, each bull run is the story of a group of investors coming in and basically deciding they can pump this thing.

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And there was basically no retail involvement this this time around.

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I mean, if there was, it went into MSTR and treasury companies.

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And then, you know, people kind of got wrecked before the bubble could even start.

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Like if you invested in the majority of treasury companies, you pretty much lost money unless you were doing them as quick flips.

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There was like a two to two week to one month period where you could actually make some money on some of the treasury company things.

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And then, you know, it just completely collapsed.

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And I think like, you know, there's this institutional inflow of capital that doesn't seem to stop.

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It's very consistent.

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None of us really understand how the institutional players are thinking about this market.

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We don't understand what games they play.

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We're kind of out of our depth.

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And I think we should just probably just be honest about that instead of throwing around cycle words at each other.

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And more likely than like, you know, we're in a super cycle.

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It's a this cycle.

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It's a crab bull.

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It's a bull crab.

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It's a bear crab.

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It's like, shut the fuck up.

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Like these are all just, we're kind of dumb

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and we don't really know what we're talking about.

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And I think that, you know,

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if you look at the way Bitcoin has been trading

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and potentially could trade in the future,

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it might trade more like an NVIDIA or something like that

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where every year we get an all-time high,

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but every year we get a 30 to 40% correction on top of that.

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Like that's kind of how the tech stocks trade.

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And so that wouldn't surprise me.

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It also wouldn't surprise me

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if next year is wildly bearish or wildly bullish.

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I don't know what's going on.

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I just don't know.

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And so it's like, I think this whole thing,

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like the influencer sphere, the podcast sphere,

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like the whole, it's out of our hands now.

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Like we're not really the guys that have control

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over this market anymore.

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We used to be, or we thought we were at least.

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It's interesting though,

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because like you say,

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we're not the people that can pump the bags,

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but like with the ETFs,

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like we all thought institutional money

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was actually coming.

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and yet here we are lower than we were last year.

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Do you think this might be the wrong two people

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to ask this question

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because you're not like markets macro guys,

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but do you think the option market on top of Ibit

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has had a negative impact on Bitcoin price?

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Well, I want to, I mean,

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first of all, I want to put some numbers here.

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Okay, so we're currently at $88,000, right?

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Just to put a pin in the cycle talk,

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we're currently at $88,000.

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If this was equivalent to the 2012 cycle,

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we should be at $3 million.

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right now. If this is equivalent to the 2016 cycle, we should be at $930,000. If it was equivalent to

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the 2020 cycle, we should be at $326,000. But we're at $88,000. So no matter how you cut it,

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this year was a fucking disappointment, a massive disappointment. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is at all

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time highs, silver is at all time highs, and gold is at all time highs. I agree with HODL that most

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of the existing influencers have become irrelevant.

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But also, a lot of them just sold out

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to these fucking treasury companies.

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They pretty much all joined treasury companies,

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and they all shot the bed.

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Any retail we had that came into the market

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went into the treasury companies

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instead of going into Bitcoin.

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And a lot of times they did it with leverage too.

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It was like the opposite of Stay Humble Stack Sats.

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And we're starting to, I think we seal,

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I think that probably was more of an impact than options on Ibit.

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We just don't have real spot retail demand.

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Even regular Ibit demand has been actually,

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that's probably been one of the most bullish fundamentals.

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But it feels like it got dwarfed by a lot of the treasury companies.

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There's just a lot of distractions there.

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And then the last piece that I would put out there is,

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if this is what a super cycle looks like, it doesn't feel that super.

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um we we we didn't even hit a new all-time high in gold this this time around yet i mean hopefully

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we do that next year maybe in four-year cycles are dead and we hit it next year but it's just

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been a massive disappointment i you can't really cut it any other way yeah i also saw alex thorn

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just tweeted like an hour or two ago saying if inflation adjusted we've not even broken 100k

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like it's definitely been well i mean can can you even really call this year a bull market year i

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I mean, we hit some all time highs.

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We were doing well, but we're going to end the year down.

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Right.

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So like there's the pattern which I was helped.

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I helped me in which is green, green, green, red.

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And of course, once you mean something, it dies.

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So I killed it.

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Now, green, green, green, red is now dead because we're unless, you know, something happens in the next few days, like we're going to end the year on a red candle.

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So it's green, green, red TBD.

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Like we don't know is next year red or is it green or is it whatever?

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I think, again, we have sort of brain damage from all these years in Bitcoin, and the game has fundamentally changed in the ETF era, and we're still kind of playing catch up to it. I think that's what's going on. And we're kind of like, we're doing divination where we're basically like, we're doing astrology. This is astrology for guys, like tuning into Bitcoin price talk, you know, like that's what we're doing.

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That's really what it is.

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and we need to stop and be sober and rational and reasonable and say,

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okay, yeah, the year was bad.

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It was a bust.

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It was flat, but really it was bad because of our expectations.

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You know, we had really high expectations because we thought,

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oh, there has to be a bull run every four years.

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And there kind of was, there kind of wasn't.

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I don't know.

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I think looking forward, I think it's more important instead of saying,

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you know, cycle this, cycle that, that we just look at, you know,

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how the market is going to trade, who the players are, who's buying Bitcoin, why are they buying

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Bitcoin? What are their reasons for owning it? How do they feel about it? Because price is set

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at the margin. And so these big buyers who come in, they are going to be able to set the price.

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Hodler set the floor and new buyers set the set the highs. So, you know, to me, I still don't

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really understand the new buyers. And it seems like states are not really accumulating yet.

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institutional players are accumulating.

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You still have BlackRock pretty, you know,

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fundamentally bullish on this thing.

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I saw Fidelity revise some of their price projections down,

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but, you know, they were like way over bullish.

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They were like, you know, they were as bullish as we were.

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They were like two, three million a coin.

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So anyway, I think the time is to be more,

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the appropriate thing now at this time

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is to be more rational and sober and act like adults

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instead of being like,

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it's going to bajillions next year, bro.

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I mean, I will say also we saw like Tom Lee was like he was posting his like bullish engagement predictions, but then behind the scenes sending out letters to investors being like, we're going to have a down year next year, which I mean is, I think, a bullish fundamental.

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But a lot of this stuff is momentum.

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And in today's market, particularly on the short-term side,

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a lot of things is like we live in a meme coin world,

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like a meme stock world in a lot of ways, right?

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With a lot of momentum trading.

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And if you do look, and I'm not someone who paid,

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first of all, I'm not a chart guy.

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I'm not a short-term trader guy.

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I definitely don't pay attention to the crypto markets,

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like the broader crypto markets, shitcoins, whatnot.

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I just focus on Bitcoin long-term investments in Bitcoin,

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whether that's the asset or the underlying companies that are building on it.

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But something feels like it broke on October 10th in the crypto markets.

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And that's when a bunch of liquidations happened.

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A lot of the shitcoiners got wrecked.

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And then a lot of the market makers that were cross-shitcoin exposed.

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like they were they held a lot of bitcoin but then they also were market makers in shitcoin land

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got really hit hard and one of the rumors is that winter mute which is one of the largest

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crypto market makers has basically been liquidating bitcoin since then or at least for a while after

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that happened right today is december 23rd i don't know you're going to release this in a little bit

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But for like two months, right, they've been like unwinding positions with the only thing they actually had left, which was Bitcoin, because like a bunch of shit coins like literally like wick to zero that day.

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And if you look at a chart, it's a crazy chart.

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Like I tell people, this is the one chart this year that is really, really interesting.

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And that is gold, silver, S&P 500, Bitcoin.

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and you can literally see the divergence

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that happened on October 10th.

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So who knows?

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Like maybe that doesn't happen.

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And what we've seen with Bitcoin,

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like we got the majority of our gains

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in a very short period of time.

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And then maybe, you know, what was the meme?

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Uptober.

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We were supposed to have Uptober.

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And we did for like seven days.

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And instead we just had downtober and downvember

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and downdecember.

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And so maybe it would have been different.

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Maybe it would have looked different if that didn't happen.

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Yeah.

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And so wait, I mean, you're suing Binance now.

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Is that right?

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And that was the other thing.

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I think that was right.

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I mean, if you want to be a conspiracy theorist, which I don't prescribe to this particular

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conspiracy, but like CZ got pardoned and then 1010 happened.

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Like you just was there like you get the pardon if you just nuke the market.

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Just nuke the market.

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let us get in cheaper and then you'll have your part in.

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Oh, I kind of like that one.

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But now CZ is getting sued.

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Yeah.

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This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch.

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239
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240
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274
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you were saying that none of the influencers have enough sway right now but i actually don't

275
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:55,800
know if that's true because like like you hodl as an influencer maybe not but like the biggest

276
00:14:55,800 --> 00:15:01,680
bitcoin influencer now is michael saylor and he's been buying like a shit ton of bitcoin all year

277
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:09,460
and not really done very much to the price like i i don't okay but go on yeah but that's my point

278
00:15:09,460 --> 00:15:14,960
first of all is saylor and then who else there's not many other people the ones that that remain

279
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,740
that are Bitcoin specific, right?

280
00:15:16,820 --> 00:15:19,000
Like Larry Fink is the largest Bitcoin influencer

281
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:19,640
in the world now.

282
00:15:20,340 --> 00:15:22,040
But the ones that are Bitcoin specific

283
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:23,760
told everyone to buy treasury companies.

284
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:26,780
Like Saylor literally was in Prague

285
00:15:26,780 --> 00:15:28,960
and was like, tell your friends and family

286
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:30,840
you need to borrow a million dollars from them

287
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,540
and buy Bitcoin with it.

288
00:15:32,580 --> 00:15:33,720
But he kind of was really implying

289
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,840
borrow a million dollars and buy MSTR with it.

290
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,380
And it's down like 50% since he said that.

291
00:15:39,100 --> 00:15:39,200
Yeah.

292
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,660
Like that's not how you make a foundational

293
00:15:42,660 --> 00:15:43,960
like solid market.

294
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:50,340
it's super tempting for the retail that does show up here like i think everyone's gotten the memo

295
00:15:50,340 --> 00:15:55,660
um when i talk to people you know i said this last year but it's it's true still which is when

296
00:15:55,660 --> 00:16:00,060
i talk to friends they know about the bitcoin price without me telling it to them which has

297
00:16:00,060 --> 00:16:05,360
never happened before in my decade in bitcoin um so now people are like they're aware of what

298
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:10,900
bitcoin is trading at they're aware that it's a big deal they they believe in bitcoin you know

299
00:16:10,900 --> 00:16:13,940
they believe in the story broadly but they don't think they're going to be a participant and that's

300
00:16:13,940 --> 00:16:19,600
story. And so if you have all of those things and then you say to yourself, well, I want to get into

301
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:24,700
Bitcoin, you know, people kind of think that leverage is like a way to cheat the system.

302
00:16:24,700 --> 00:16:28,080
And it's like, OK, I'm going to get in with leverage and then I'm going to make up for lost

303
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:37,420
time. And that turns out to be, you know, just the quickest trip to wreck city. And the treasury

304
00:16:37,420 --> 00:16:41,560
companies are really struggling because, you know, like everything was great when it was like,

305
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,380
yeah, bro, premiums on Bitcoin, bro.

306
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:44,840
And you're like, why?

307
00:16:45,060 --> 00:16:49,160
And they're like, reasons, me, dude, come on, dude, premiums, dude.

308
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:50,900
And then the premiums go away.

309
00:16:50,900 --> 00:16:53,340
And like all the guys like Jim Chanos are right.

310
00:16:53,340 --> 00:16:56,160
And they can just are about the premium super easily.

311
00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:01,280
And it's like, we're going to, we're going to like acquire businesses, man.

312
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,000
And, and, and shit.

313
00:17:03,340 --> 00:17:07,040
And it's, and I don't really, you know, I don't, the treasury companies are not that

314
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,580
defensible without a premium.

315
00:17:08,580 --> 00:17:12,340
I mean, I think that's the one call that we got right last year.

316
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,080
I was listening to the show before we did this to see where we were wrong.

317
00:17:15,180 --> 00:17:16,520
We were wrong a lot, to be honest.

318
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:22,260
But we did say that we thought the treasury companies, like the long tail, were going to get wiped out.

319
00:17:22,340 --> 00:17:26,420
And basically just the cream of the crop was going to be the only thing that was interesting and actually stuck around.

320
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:27,420
And I think we're seeing that.

321
00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:31,560
Like the acquisitions that are happening now, that seems like bad news for most of the companies involved.

322
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:33,540
Like I think Saylor is going to be fine.

323
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:34,660
Strategy will always be there.

324
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,460
I think there's probably two or three others.

325
00:17:36,460 --> 00:17:44,840
But I think this idea that you can have like a coffee shop that's struggling and buying Bitcoin is your like last chance at actually making the company successful.

326
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:45,380
That's over.

327
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:56,480
You said earlier in this rip that no one, I don't know if we can call this a cycle, but no one this cycle like successfully called the top or not.

328
00:17:57,180 --> 00:18:00,340
Like HODL just reminded me like Chanos' call was epic.

329
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,860
Like people were giving him so much shit for that call.

330
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:04,260
And it was a very simple trade.

331
00:18:04,260 --> 00:18:10,220
He was like, I am just short Microsoft's MicroStrategy's MNav Premium.

332
00:18:11,100 --> 00:18:17,520
And he held long Bitcoin and went short MSDR and pretty much nailed the timing.

333
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:23,160
Absolutely nailed the timing very publicly and got a lot of shit for it.

334
00:18:24,020 --> 00:18:24,100
Yeah.

335
00:18:24,620 --> 00:18:30,080
And I mean, we're living in a weird, bizarro world where Peter Schiff is having an amazing year.

336
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:31,160
I fucking hate it.

337
00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:33,000
We got to give it up to Jim Chanos.

338
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,860
If you look at the asset charts, you know, that dude, Charlie Bilillo, he always puts it out.

339
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,140
Gold is the best performing asset of the year.

340
00:18:39,700 --> 00:18:40,380
No, isn't silver?

341
00:18:41,180 --> 00:18:42,260
Is silver above gold now?

342
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:43,980
I checked it only like a month ago.

343
00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:46,580
Okay, well, silver had a really hot month.

344
00:18:46,820 --> 00:18:46,940
Right.

345
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,560
So it's precious metals at the top and Bitcoin at the bottom.

346
00:18:49,740 --> 00:18:53,300
And for the entirety of Bitcoin's history, that has never been true before.

347
00:18:53,920 --> 00:19:01,900
And so this is just, you know, you kind of got to ask yourself like, okay, is Bitcoin a canary in the coal mine for something larger that's about to happen at the markets?

348
00:19:01,900 --> 00:19:05,820
or is Bitcoin a beach ball that's being held underwater?

349
00:19:06,420 --> 00:19:08,380
Those are kind of the two questions

350
00:19:08,380 --> 00:19:12,520
and nobody has a good answer.

351
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,360
But I will say that whenever the Bitcoin price

352
00:19:15,360 --> 00:19:17,100
hangs out for a long time like this

353
00:19:17,100 --> 00:19:19,820
in a specific range,

354
00:19:19,940 --> 00:19:21,080
I tend to think it's going to dump.

355
00:19:21,660 --> 00:19:23,220
It either goes up or down.

356
00:19:23,500 --> 00:19:24,920
It's going to go hard in one direction.

357
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,720
I think it's a simpler answer.

358
00:19:26,860 --> 00:19:30,500
I think we're basically living in a global depression right now,

359
00:19:30,500 --> 00:19:37,780
printing fiat has hidden that so people think that we're not to a degree but most people are

360
00:19:37,780 --> 00:19:44,300
poor as fuck um and there's a there's a safe haven trade going on and that's what gold and

361
00:19:44,300 --> 00:19:49,920
silver are benefiting from people are still treating bitcoin as a risk-off asset uh which

362
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:54,340
is fine like i treat it as a safe haven but specifically like if you don't hold bitcoin

363
00:19:54,340 --> 00:19:58,540
in self-custody i think it's really easy to think of it as a risk-off asset like almost like a tech

364
00:19:58,540 --> 00:20:06,020
stock. And the only thing that's weird about the play right now or how the market's trading is the

365
00:20:06,020 --> 00:20:11,560
big tech companies are also at all time highs. But that starts to make sense when you realize that

366
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:18,540
I think a lot of people are treating those as risk off assets. They're thinking of it as a safe haven

367
00:20:18,540 --> 00:20:30,825
because they have large treasuries like cash treasuries They considered too big to fail think like the US government will not let NVIDIA fall Google a fucking behemoth

368
00:20:30,985 --> 00:20:32,265
Apple's a fucking behemoth.

369
00:20:33,745 --> 00:20:37,365
And they're treating them as safe haven assets themselves.

370
00:20:38,685 --> 00:20:40,965
I think they actually might end up being safe haven assets.

371
00:20:41,085 --> 00:20:42,965
Like I don't think the government can let NVIDIA fail.

372
00:20:42,965 --> 00:20:48,365
Like I think the government is so reliant on AI working as like a productivity boom to make the economy work

373
00:20:48,365 --> 00:20:50,125
that they will probably do everything they can

374
00:20:50,125 --> 00:20:51,685
to not allow that stock to fail.

375
00:20:52,405 --> 00:20:54,125
But I think what Hoddle said earlier is right.

376
00:20:54,245 --> 00:20:56,185
In fact, I think you said this maybe on another show recorded

377
00:20:56,185 --> 00:20:58,925
that it's just the weirdest thing that's happened this year

378
00:20:58,925 --> 00:21:00,825
is Bitcoin isn't volatile enough for people,

379
00:21:00,925 --> 00:21:03,085
which is why they're going into treasury companies.

380
00:21:03,205 --> 00:21:05,205
I think that's why they're going into AI stocks

381
00:21:05,205 --> 00:21:06,065
that are absolutely pumping.

382
00:21:06,625 --> 00:21:08,265
But the thing that I never expected

383
00:21:08,265 --> 00:21:11,105
was gold to have more retail FOMO than Bitcoin.

384
00:21:11,605 --> 00:21:13,385
I would never have guessed that.

385
00:21:13,865 --> 00:21:14,905
And I just wonder if we're like,

386
00:21:15,005 --> 00:21:16,545
are we missing a narrative in Bitcoin?

387
00:21:16,545 --> 00:21:20,545
Because it feels like every cycle there's some sort of dominant narrative.

388
00:21:21,585 --> 00:21:24,885
And this time it seemed to be like every corporation was going to own Bitcoin.

389
00:21:25,165 --> 00:21:29,245
And then a ton of corporations put Bitcoin in the balance sheet and ended up trading at a discount.

390
00:21:30,185 --> 00:21:40,845
I think gold has the unit bias thing going for it, actually, because it's a lot easier to wrap your head around owning an ounce of gold than it is to wrap your head around owning $100,000 Bitcoin.

391
00:21:40,845 --> 00:21:54,985
And I do think that for retail, the average person looks at, you know, Bitcoin price of $100,000, $125,000 and they just go, that's great, but that's completely out of my realm of, you know, potentiality here.

392
00:21:55,125 --> 00:21:57,505
Like, and they don't realize that you can buy a fraction of a Bitcoin.

393
00:21:57,625 --> 00:21:59,025
There's still like a learning curve there.

394
00:21:59,245 --> 00:22:08,045
And so that forces, that's one of the forcing functions, you know, that pushes people towards treasuries or towards other things like, you know, gold, for instance.

395
00:22:08,045 --> 00:22:12,245
I also think gold is somewhat easier to wrap your mind around.

396
00:22:12,485 --> 00:22:18,745
And then, listen, like there are, you know, I don't even know if I want to bring this up.

397
00:22:18,845 --> 00:22:19,265
I'll bring it up.

398
00:22:21,065 --> 00:22:26,405
The quantum thing is an actual consideration in the mind of new investors.

399
00:22:26,645 --> 00:22:26,665
I agree.

400
00:22:27,105 --> 00:22:32,225
Because if there's this boogeyman out there that's like, hey, this thing that, you know,

401
00:22:32,225 --> 00:22:38,545
is being sold to as rock solid could potentially be obliterated within, you know, a period of,

402
00:22:38,625 --> 00:22:43,745
I don't know, five years time, 10 years time. How investable is it? Should you be investing?

403
00:22:43,845 --> 00:22:48,705
And what is the timeline? Is the timeline three years? Is it five? Is it 10? Is it 20? Is it

404
00:22:48,705 --> 00:22:53,065
bullshit? Is the error correction on quantum not real? What's the difference between a short range

405
00:22:53,065 --> 00:22:56,445
and long range attack? Like these things get confusing. They're confusing for me. And I've

406
00:22:56,445 --> 00:23:00,425
been in Bitcoin for a long time. So I think, you know, Nick Carter recently came out and

407
00:23:00,425 --> 00:23:04,945
talked about quantum and that's been all over and like uh you know at least now we're not talking

408
00:23:04,945 --> 00:23:09,565
about spam anymore so we got something new to talk about so that's been nice got that going for us

409
00:23:09,565 --> 00:23:14,345
but i do think that he's right that there is capital that's scared of quantum i i think nick

410
00:23:14,345 --> 00:23:20,565
is being incredibly alarmist um for engagement um but as someone who runs a fund that competes with

411
00:23:20,565 --> 00:23:27,665
his um he is correct in that i i we have heard this from large allocators like large allocators

412
00:23:27,665 --> 00:23:32,505
are thinking about it and there's not a real answer because I think the real answer is it's

413
00:23:32,505 --> 00:23:41,165
not a real concern right now and it'll be fine. But that's not satisfying. What they want to see

414
00:23:41,165 --> 00:23:47,325
is they want to see some tangible technical option for people that want more quantum resistance.

415
00:23:47,705 --> 00:23:51,925
I mean, right now, if you hold Bitcoin and you're doing it under best practices, you're holding

416
00:23:51,925 --> 00:23:56,625
self-custody Bitcoin, you're not reusing addresses, you're very well protected from

417
00:23:56,625 --> 00:24:00,245
some kind of quantum breakthrough that is purely theoretical right now.

418
00:24:01,085 --> 00:24:02,845
But that's not an easy answer for them.

419
00:24:03,405 --> 00:24:07,545
I do think it's probably weighing down the market a little bit

420
00:24:07,545 --> 00:24:09,165
and it's adding a little bit more uncertainty

421
00:24:09,165 --> 00:24:14,005
where we already had uncertainty, right?

422
00:24:14,145 --> 00:24:18,185
And I think the key here, though, with gold is gold is not –

423
00:24:18,185 --> 00:24:20,105
I don't think it's a retail-driven rally.

424
00:24:20,665 --> 00:24:23,325
I think gold is institutional sovereigns.

425
00:24:23,325 --> 00:24:25,545
This is very, very large allocators.

426
00:24:25,545 --> 00:24:29,205
and for them, it's actually easier for them to allocate to gold.

427
00:24:29,425 --> 00:24:31,065
First of all, there's way less career risk.

428
00:24:31,645 --> 00:24:33,065
There's already a bunch of different avenues

429
00:24:33,065 --> 00:24:36,585
for large allocators to move into gold in size.

430
00:24:36,945 --> 00:24:38,565
The story is very clean.

431
00:24:39,205 --> 00:24:43,085
You know, it's multi-thousand year asset

432
00:24:43,085 --> 00:24:46,045
that has historically been a safe haven.

433
00:24:46,905 --> 00:24:49,765
And Bitcoin is, you know, is new

434
00:24:49,765 --> 00:24:52,085
and it's hard to understand.

435
00:24:52,705 --> 00:24:55,045
The interesting thing though, by the way,

436
00:24:55,045 --> 00:25:01,465
And I'll just hand up probably first time in my life that I've ever felt any kind of gold FOMO.

437
00:25:03,905 --> 00:25:12,785
And, you know, it's like everything we said is true, but gold and silver are fucking ripping.

438
00:25:13,225 --> 00:25:15,905
And I feel sidelined. I feel sidelined to a degree.

439
00:25:16,785 --> 00:25:20,645
There's no easy way for smaller people to allocate to gold.

440
00:25:20,645 --> 00:25:22,845
like I don't even

441
00:25:22,845 --> 00:25:24,405
I joked about this on

442
00:25:24,405 --> 00:25:25,265
Rabadol Recap

443
00:25:25,265 --> 00:25:28,085
I need like a BTC sessions video

444
00:25:28,085 --> 00:25:29,945
on how to verify

445
00:25:29,945 --> 00:25:31,725
physical gold

446
00:25:31,725 --> 00:25:34,085
I just assume that if I go out and try and buy

447
00:25:34,085 --> 00:25:36,385
physical gold in any reasonable

448
00:25:36,385 --> 00:25:37,025
size

449
00:25:37,025 --> 00:25:40,445
I'm probably going to get a bunch of Chinese

450
00:25:40,445 --> 00:25:40,845
fakes

451
00:25:40,845 --> 00:25:44,345
and to me Bitcoin is

452
00:25:44,345 --> 00:25:46,585
way easier to allocate in those

453
00:25:46,585 --> 00:25:48,665
like middle ranges

454
00:25:48,665 --> 00:25:52,185
like the $500,000 to $2 million ranges.

455
00:25:53,845 --> 00:25:56,345
You can go out and get self-custody Bitcoin on strike

456
00:25:56,345 --> 00:26:00,725
and have it fully verified in 30 minutes.

457
00:26:01,725 --> 00:26:03,545
By the way, the cheap, easy way to assay gold

458
00:26:03,545 --> 00:26:07,205
is you take an impact drill and you just drill into it.

459
00:26:07,905 --> 00:26:09,425
But doesn't that hurt the value of it?

460
00:26:10,125 --> 00:26:12,465
I mean, you're destroying some portion of the gold.

461
00:26:13,965 --> 00:26:17,765
Anyway, I decided to, just for it to be clear here,

462
00:26:17,765 --> 00:26:21,625
I've decided that I'm not going to allocate to gold at all.

463
00:26:22,405 --> 00:26:28,685
And instead, my Bitcoin hedge is just large quantities of ammunition, which is much easier to verify.

464
00:26:29,205 --> 00:26:30,925
Whiskey, prescription pills, ammunition.

465
00:26:31,485 --> 00:26:31,805
Absolutely.

466
00:26:32,045 --> 00:26:36,945
I know you've got some gold around your neck right now, Odell, but we should talk about the quantum thing.

467
00:26:36,945 --> 00:26:38,125
Besides made X's jewelry.

468
00:26:38,285 --> 00:26:47,085
We should talk about the quantum thing because like I may be, I know you kind of get sick of the conversation, Matt, but like it, from my perspective, it probably will be true in my lifetime.

469
00:26:47,085 --> 00:26:52,645
I'm not anywhere near competent enough to put a kind of time frame on it, but I would imagine it happens in my lifetime.

470
00:26:53,165 --> 00:27:01,725
And so I think we do need to start having the conversation in a reasonable way, because like you saying that if you hold it in self custody, you're not reusing addresses, like you're pretty safe.

471
00:27:01,985 --> 00:27:06,925
But that's not really the big threat. The big threat is like, what happens to all the old coins?

472
00:27:07,105 --> 00:27:08,745
What does that do to the price of Bitcoin?

473
00:27:09,705 --> 00:27:11,925
So, so, yeah, there's correct. There's two things.

474
00:27:11,925 --> 00:27:16,345
So if you're if you're concerned about quantum is someone stealing your own Bitcoin, you're going to be fine.

475
00:27:16,345 --> 00:27:28,725
We have some of the smartest minds in the world working on more advanced quantum protected schemes, signature schemes for Bitcoin that will be opt in that people can move to if they want to.

476
00:27:29,285 --> 00:27:42,305
In the short to medium term, and that's like five to 20 years, the current hashed addresses on Segwit are probably fine, you know, because you're only subject to an attack at the point of spend.

477
00:27:42,305 --> 00:27:53,785
And so you're imagining someone with a theoretical magic computer, basically, that is able to attack you within 10 minutes to an hour, which is just not going to happen.

478
00:27:54,365 --> 00:27:56,445
So then what's the real concern that people have?

479
00:27:56,485 --> 00:28:00,725
The real concern people have, and these two things are mixed together, is old coins and lost coins.

480
00:28:00,905 --> 00:28:04,125
And the easy meme way to talk about this is Satoshi's Bitcoin.

481
00:28:04,585 --> 00:28:08,205
Satoshi's got a million Bitcoin that's just sitting out there for a quantum attacker.

482
00:28:08,205 --> 00:28:15,565
i like this is this is what you sign up for with bitcoin this is also what you sign up for with

483
00:28:15,565 --> 00:28:21,845
gold like if someone steals someone's gold it doesn't invalidate the gold's value prop if

484
00:28:21,845 --> 00:28:27,185
someone steals someone's bitcoin it doesn't invalidate bitcoin's value prop we earlier in

485
00:28:27,185 --> 00:28:31,965
this year people were cheering on the strategic bitcoin reserve which is literally designed to be

486
00:28:31,965 --> 00:28:38,685
built on stolen Bitcoin. And they cheer that on. But if for some reason someone has a massive

487
00:28:38,685 --> 00:28:44,265
breakthrough and is able to create a quantum computer that actually fucking works and they

488
00:28:44,265 --> 00:28:49,885
get some Bitcoin, which, by the way, they can't dump in size without destroying the value that

489
00:28:49,885 --> 00:28:56,605
they created, people lose their fucking mind and start advocating for seizures that we've never

490
00:28:56,605 --> 00:29:02,385
done in Bitcoin's history. Bitcoin has gone 17 plus years without a single seizure and without

491
00:29:02,385 --> 00:29:06,605
a single transaction blocked at the protocol level. Like, yes, there's been seizures where

492
00:29:06,605 --> 00:29:10,505
people take people's private keys or governments come in and arrest you and put a gun to your head

493
00:29:10,505 --> 00:29:14,205
and force you to give them the private keys. That's unavoidable. That's in the physical realm.

494
00:29:14,745 --> 00:29:19,365
But as a digital protocol, as an internet native protocol, we've never had a seizure and we've

495
00:29:19,365 --> 00:29:25,205
never had any transaction blocked, which is absolutely phenomenal. People do not appreciate

496
00:29:25,205 --> 00:29:30,645
that fact. And so to throw that out and basically preemptively try and steal Bitcoin because you're

497
00:29:30,645 --> 00:29:36,005
afraid someone else might steal it is insane to me. And it's a weird obsession that people have.

498
00:29:36,145 --> 00:29:43,805
And I think the cleanest thing to do here, narrative wise, if the concern is that large

499
00:29:43,805 --> 00:29:49,645
allocators are worried about potential market impacts on that hitting the market, is being

500
00:29:49,645 --> 00:29:54,585
very loud about the fact that that will not happen. We will not be preemptively stealing

501
00:29:54,585 --> 00:29:58,365
people's Bitcoin. Because I'll tell you, there's also the opposite side of the equation.

502
00:29:59,485 --> 00:30:03,685
Satoshi could have burned his Bitcoin if he wanted to. Large holders could have burned their Bitcoin.

503
00:30:03,845 --> 00:30:07,905
OG holders that are in old legacy addresses that are vulnerable to this theoretical attack

504
00:30:07,905 --> 00:30:13,105
could have burned their Bitcoin if they wanted to. They chose not to. Some of them might not

505
00:30:13,105 --> 00:30:20,525
be moving their Bitcoin because of concerns over market impact. This actual movement,

506
00:30:20,525 --> 00:30:25,165
this idea of spreading this narrative that we're going to preemptively seize satoshi's coins

507
00:30:25,165 --> 00:30:30,885
if satoshi is actually alive and out there right now i've fucking moved my bitcoin like you might

508
00:30:30,885 --> 00:30:36,985
actually force the market impact that you're so scared of because of of that preemptive fear yeah

509
00:30:36,985 --> 00:30:40,845
but when i say this is stuff we should be talking about this is exactly what i mean like this is

510
00:30:40,845 --> 00:30:44,725
this is the important conversation to have because like i think it's also really short-sighted from

511
00:30:44,725 --> 00:30:49,525
another way whereas one of the key values of bitcoin is property rights and the fact that

512
00:30:49,525 --> 00:30:51,545
you can't do anything with anyone else's Bitcoin.

513
00:30:52,685 --> 00:30:56,505
And even if like, there's going to be a portion of the market that think we should seize Bitcoin

514
00:30:56,505 --> 00:30:59,425
because they think short term, it'll be better for the price chart, essentially.

515
00:31:00,125 --> 00:31:03,045
But like, what does that do to the long term value proposition of Bitcoin?

516
00:31:03,045 --> 00:31:08,165
If we've proven at once under these like extreme circumstances, we can steal people's Bitcoin.

517
00:31:08,445 --> 00:31:11,885
Like, I think people aren't thinking of the second and third order consequence of this.

518
00:31:12,485 --> 00:31:16,485
Yeah, there's probably a lot of people who haven't been around for some of the

519
00:31:16,485 --> 00:31:23,325
the messier times in Bitcoin too, you know, like where 2017 was a very messy year in Bitcoin. We

520
00:31:23,325 --> 00:31:26,925
had a full on block size war that was raging. There was a lot of uncertainty. There were all

521
00:31:26,925 --> 00:31:31,985
these airdrops, et cetera. And, you know, Bitcoin survived. And in fact, the price ripped that year.

522
00:31:32,425 --> 00:31:36,685
And I think people want easy answers to some of these things. And the question, you know, like

523
00:31:36,685 --> 00:31:42,365
the idea that we're going to put in a quantum secure encryption scheme before the threat is

524
00:31:42,365 --> 00:31:47,765
prevalent and we might make a mistake is in and of itself just as big a threat as if we don't get

525
00:31:47,765 --> 00:31:51,505
there in time. So you put in, you know, you're kind of damned if you do and you're damned if you

526
00:31:51,505 --> 00:31:57,185
don't. So you have to be prudent and watch what's going on and then put in these, you know, schemes

527
00:31:57,185 --> 00:32:01,405
at the right time. And then on top of that, you also have, you know, I think it's worth double

528
00:32:01,405 --> 00:32:05,205
clicking on what Matt was talking about with the short range versus long range attacks. Like if you

529
00:32:05,205 --> 00:32:11,345
are in like a P2WSH, like multi-sig, you know, hash protected, like you're good. You know,

530
00:32:11,345 --> 00:32:12,565
Quantum is not going to get you.

531
00:32:13,125 --> 00:32:14,045
And that's long range.

532
00:32:14,125 --> 00:32:16,265
So that would be a long range attack if they were trying to get, you know,

533
00:32:16,465 --> 00:32:18,585
hodled Bitcoin secure, hash protected Bitcoin.

534
00:32:19,225 --> 00:32:23,625
But if you are, you know, transacting at the moment of transaction,

535
00:32:23,725 --> 00:32:27,585
you might be vulnerable to some sort of quantum actor if one exists.

536
00:32:27,685 --> 00:32:29,925
So right now it is still, you know, purely theoretical.

537
00:32:31,145 --> 00:32:35,745
And I think that that's really not that big of a concern, right?

538
00:32:35,785 --> 00:32:38,185
So you can kind of table it because it's not a big deal.

539
00:32:38,185 --> 00:32:39,825
Most people are just hodling their coins anyway.

540
00:32:39,825 --> 00:32:43,045
and it doesn't like destroy the value proposition of Bitcoin.

541
00:32:43,405 --> 00:32:46,065
But if people can get access to your coins,

542
00:32:46,125 --> 00:32:47,305
that's obviously a much bigger deal.

543
00:32:47,965 --> 00:32:49,905
And then again, you have to dig into quantum,

544
00:32:50,465 --> 00:32:51,225
how it works.

545
00:32:51,325 --> 00:32:52,625
And like, there's a lot of talk,

546
00:32:52,825 --> 00:32:54,245
you know, I'm not smart enough to understand it,

547
00:32:54,265 --> 00:32:54,865
to be honest,

548
00:32:54,905 --> 00:32:57,265
but there's a lot of talk about the error correction principles.

549
00:32:57,625 --> 00:32:59,165
And like, they haven't really gotten there

550
00:32:59,165 --> 00:33:01,245
on the technology side of like being able to error correct

551
00:33:01,245 --> 00:33:03,605
the quantum state of these machines.

552
00:33:04,145 --> 00:33:05,745
And so that means they're not really useful

553
00:33:05,745 --> 00:33:07,685
in production yet, right?

554
00:33:07,685 --> 00:33:13,405
Now, there might be a breakthrough any moment or in a couple of years or whenever that makes that possible.

555
00:33:13,585 --> 00:33:16,645
But right now, it's a theoretical conversation.

556
00:33:16,925 --> 00:33:18,625
We're having a theoretical conversation in public.

557
00:33:18,785 --> 00:33:37,225
And I think one of the things we should do, in my opinion, my estimation, is to basically, we should have sort of a state of quantum discourse every year, quarterly or whatever, where we just sort of update as we go and say, hey, if you're interested in what the Bitcoiners are thinking about quantum, they're thinking this.

558
00:33:37,225 --> 00:33:40,665
because one of the things that Nick Carter was saying

559
00:33:40,665 --> 00:33:42,365
is the devs are not paying attention, whatever.

560
00:33:42,505 --> 00:33:46,165
But there was a whole conference about this,

561
00:33:46,265 --> 00:33:47,885
talk about this at Presidio Bitcoin,

562
00:33:48,485 --> 00:33:49,625
where the devs were going over,

563
00:33:49,865 --> 00:33:52,405
our highest level devs were going over the quantum threat,

564
00:33:52,825 --> 00:33:56,725
what the potentiality is, what can be done,

565
00:33:56,825 --> 00:33:57,685
what are the types of schemes.

566
00:33:57,865 --> 00:34:00,105
Hunter Beast has done an incredible,

567
00:34:00,285 --> 00:34:01,465
amazing amount of work on this.

568
00:34:01,605 --> 00:34:03,865
There's a lot going on and people just don't know about it.

569
00:34:04,305 --> 00:34:06,525
And so I think it's really contingent on us

570
00:34:06,525 --> 00:34:10,725
to just sort of instead of be here's the other thing too about i want to like put this out to

571
00:34:10,725 --> 00:34:15,865
bitcoiners like we've memed our way out of a lot of shit so bitcoin has no ceo that's just something

572
00:34:15,865 --> 00:34:19,785
you can meme your way out of bitcoin has no intrinsic value what even is intrinsic value bro

573
00:34:19,785 --> 00:34:24,805
like we can meme our way out of stuff but if quantum is real or if it becomes real it's not

574
00:34:24,805 --> 00:34:30,245
it's more like a bitcoin y2k moment and it's not something that you can meme yourself out of

575
00:34:30,245 --> 00:34:34,985
and the story of y2k by the way is not that y2k was not a big deal the story was that the people

576
00:34:34,985 --> 00:34:40,165
that were in charge of updating the mainframe systems took it as a responsibility and did the

577
00:34:40,165 --> 00:34:45,345
work ahead of time to make it so that Y2K ended up being nothing. And that is the same type of

578
00:34:45,345 --> 00:34:49,985
thing we will do in Bitcoin when the time comes with the quantum thing, but it's not something

579
00:34:49,985 --> 00:34:55,685
you can just meme your way out of. So I think that's the message I'd like to get across to

580
00:34:55,685 --> 00:34:59,645
Bitcoiners on Twitter who are just like, oh, it's just fun, bro. It could be a real thing in the

581
00:34:59,645 --> 00:35:04,965
future. It's just not a real thing right now. I was telling you, the real thing is going to be

582
00:35:04,985 --> 00:35:09,985
likely the first contentious fork we've had since 2017,

583
00:35:11,085 --> 00:35:12,825
which will be on seizing Bitcoin.

584
00:35:12,825 --> 00:35:15,325
And I just want to reiterate this one more time.

585
00:35:15,325 --> 00:35:20,245
If Navy SEALs or Delta Force or whatever

586
00:35:20,245 --> 00:35:23,225
found Satoshi and accused him of money laundering

587
00:35:23,225 --> 00:35:27,325
for terrorists and took his a million Bitcoin at gunpoint

588
00:35:27,325 --> 00:35:29,305
and added it to the strategic Bitcoin reserve,

589
00:35:29,305 --> 00:35:30,785
there'd be no conversations

590
00:35:30,785 --> 00:35:32,925
around forking out their Bitcoin.

591
00:35:32,925 --> 00:35:45,785
But if some math genius working in a secret lab somewhere figures out this insane crypto breaking computer to attack his Bitcoin, then we're going to we're going to do a protocol change to stop the Bitcoin.

592
00:35:45,925 --> 00:35:47,285
That makes no fucking sense.

593
00:35:47,965 --> 00:35:49,585
It just logically does not flow.

594
00:35:49,865 --> 00:35:55,705
So this goes back to Ethereum's Dow fork, which is like they they came to this crossroads and they made the wrong decision.

595
00:35:56,185 --> 00:36:00,385
And this was back in 2017, I think, or no, even earlier, 2016.

596
00:36:00,385 --> 00:36:03,465
they made the wrong decision and they

597
00:36:03,465 --> 00:36:05,305
somebody attacked the DAO

598
00:36:05,305 --> 00:36:07,065
which had a lot of Ethereum in it

599
00:36:07,065 --> 00:36:08,965
and they made the community

600
00:36:08,965 --> 00:36:11,045
you know, decision to

601
00:36:11,045 --> 00:36:13,685
roll it back and give those coins

602
00:36:13,685 --> 00:36:15,565
back to the Ethereum Foundation

603
00:36:15,565 --> 00:36:17,045
and all the other holders

604
00:36:17,045 --> 00:36:18,505
but that was the wrong

605
00:36:18,505 --> 00:36:20,785
and it created a chain split right

606
00:36:20,785 --> 00:36:21,945
and then there was Ethereum Classic

607
00:36:21,945 --> 00:36:23,825
and Barry Silver started buying up all the Ethereum Classic

608
00:36:23,825 --> 00:36:25,645
that was the wrong decision

609
00:36:25,645 --> 00:36:27,985
they hit that fork in the road and they made the bad path

610
00:36:27,985 --> 00:36:30,025
and if Ethereum has done anything for us

611
00:36:30,025 --> 00:36:36,705
it's shown us what not to do. So we can learn from their example and just not take the bad path.

612
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620
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621
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647
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648
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649
00:39:12,225 --> 00:39:16,305
All right, Matt, just before we move on from this, I want a one-word answer, yes or no.

650
00:39:16,305 --> 00:39:24,505
do you agree with that analogy what that's like the doubt for it yeah i think it's it's close

651
00:39:24,505 --> 00:39:29,385
enough do you remember when we were recording at your house i used that exact same analogy

652
00:39:29,385 --> 00:39:38,805
you told me it was a dumb take so uh what was my what was my reasoning for saying i don't remember

653
00:39:38,805 --> 00:39:42,065
that was quite a while ago but i remember you telling me it was about that was when you forgot

654
00:39:42,065 --> 00:39:48,045
to record car you see you're always just you're slippy you're getting out of it um we should talk

655
00:39:48,045 --> 00:39:53,105
about trump though because this was one area where matt when i was listening back you had a really

656
00:39:53,105 --> 00:40:03,225
poor take you said 90 sure we would have a strategic reserve this year yeah well we didn't

657
00:40:03,225 --> 00:40:10,745
we did get one but it's it's a shitty one what what's your take on trump's entire first year

658
00:40:10,745 --> 00:40:19,625
Oh my God, it's been, it's been wildly disappointing. Just like the Bitcoin market,

659
00:40:19,805 --> 00:40:25,105
it's been disappointing. I think, you know, seems that the focus, I think the big thing that the

660
00:40:25,105 --> 00:40:32,545
Trump base feels is that the focus has been much more on geopolitical foreign affairs than it has

661
00:40:32,545 --> 00:40:36,785
been here at home. And people are not really getting what they voted for. And so there's

662
00:40:36,785 --> 00:40:38,805
disappointment about that. And then the Trump admin

663
00:40:38,805 --> 00:40:40,745
is doing sort of these

664
00:40:40,745 --> 00:40:42,125
performative measures.

665
00:40:42,605 --> 00:40:44,965
Like, for instance, the deportation numbers are not

666
00:40:44,965 --> 00:40:57,970
as high as they should be And so ICE is doing TikTok edits to Little Dark Age on X And it like yo look how like fucking cool we being while we deport this person right it like nobody actually wants that

667
00:40:57,970 --> 00:41:03,330
that's uh i don't know why you're trying to be cool on x instead of governing right so or like

668
00:41:03,330 --> 00:41:09,970
you know we kind of seems like we have podcasters running the government man like dan bongino like

669
00:41:09,970 --> 00:41:14,730
was on a podcast you know saying if he got into the fbi he would fix it and then he got into the

670
00:41:14,730 --> 00:41:19,190
FBI and he was like, this shit is tough. I'm going back to podcasting. It's like, what the fuck?

671
00:41:20,890 --> 00:41:25,910
I don't know, man. Or like, it's, it's weird. It's like, I'm watching, you know,

672
00:41:26,470 --> 00:41:31,470
Steven Miller's wife has a podcast and cash Patel is on there with his girlfriend. Like,

673
00:41:31,750 --> 00:41:38,070
why is the FBI director on a podcast with his girlfriend? This is like just weird norm breaking

674
00:41:38,070 --> 00:41:42,150
for me. And it's like, what is it accomplishing in the middle of a manhunt for the Brown shooting

675
00:41:42,150 --> 00:41:48,850
suspect. He's like doing the podcast. Like it's very odd what's going on. It's like this, I don't

676
00:41:48,850 --> 00:41:52,730
know, the whole Trump admin has been very performative. And obviously I voted for Trump.

677
00:41:52,970 --> 00:41:56,970
And, uh, you know, I think it's better than what we would have had with Harris because with Harris,

678
00:41:56,970 --> 00:42:01,790
we would have been completely under the gun, especially as Bitcoin people. Um, and we probably

679
00:42:01,790 --> 00:42:07,590
still will be in a future Democrat administration. So keep your nose clean now. Don't, I mean, like

680
00:42:07,590 --> 00:42:14,490
maybe don't tweet that thing about the democrat senator you hate but um yeah it's been

681
00:42:14,490 --> 00:42:20,750
disappointing disappointing yeah i mean i agree with that like the funny thing is though as especially

682
00:42:20,750 --> 00:42:24,990
as an outsider you can't say anything negative about trump without like being told you have

683
00:42:24,990 --> 00:42:29,010
trump arrangement syndrome but this year seems like a shit show like i i don't see that much

684
00:42:29,010 --> 00:42:33,730
positive stuff that's come out of his his campaign so far and i agree that like harris might have

685
00:42:33,730 --> 00:42:38,070
been worse but it doesn't mean trump's been good um and matt i'm giving you shit about the strategic

686
00:42:38,070 --> 00:42:41,690
reserve call like i thought the same thing obviously you were never going to know but

687
00:42:41,690 --> 00:42:47,290
do you think now the like first year is nearly up that the kind of idea of good bitcoin policy

688
00:42:47,290 --> 00:42:51,710
is over or do you think there's still legs in it well first of all i'm still thinking about the

689
00:42:51,710 --> 00:42:57,910
dow fork and i just want to apologize to you i forgive you matt but uh clearly people's opinions

690
00:42:57,910 --> 00:43:02,430
change i'll tell you when we when we when we chatted last i wasn't thinking about quantum as

691
00:43:02,430 --> 00:43:04,430
much and now I have to talk about it all the

692
00:43:04,430 --> 00:43:04,950
fucking time.

693
00:43:07,650 --> 00:43:08,410
Look, I think

694
00:43:08,410 --> 00:43:10,550
on the Trump side, first of all, way better than Harris.

695
00:43:10,690 --> 00:43:11,630
It's not even close.

696
00:43:12,190 --> 00:43:14,330
Absolutely not even close. We were on the

697
00:43:14,330 --> 00:43:16,450
verge of us and our friends

698
00:43:16,450 --> 00:43:18,210
and important businesses

699
00:43:18,210 --> 00:43:20,350
and Bitcoin throughout the country having

700
00:43:20,350 --> 00:43:22,410
the feds raid their

701
00:43:22,410 --> 00:43:24,330
houses at some point. It was really, really

702
00:43:24,330 --> 00:43:26,210
bad. And we got

703
00:43:26,210 --> 00:43:28,310
Ross free. Ross is free. That's a huge

704
00:43:28,310 --> 00:43:30,350
win. I would love to see the Samurai developers

705
00:43:30,350 --> 00:43:32,330
get pardoned. I think that's another easy

706
00:43:32,330 --> 00:43:35,010
tangible win for the administration on the Bitcoin side.

707
00:43:37,290 --> 00:43:44,350
I think, you know, the Trump administration himself and a lot of the people around him

708
00:43:44,350 --> 00:43:45,970
are very, very transactional.

709
00:43:46,730 --> 00:43:51,790
And it seems like they've been filling up their own coffers rather than filling up the

710
00:43:51,790 --> 00:43:53,230
U.S. government's coffers on Bitcoin.

711
00:43:54,070 --> 00:43:59,090
I mean, his son literally has his own American Bitcoin company.

712
00:44:00,030 --> 00:44:01,530
Trump has Trump Media.

713
00:44:01,530 --> 00:44:03,470
You mentioned the Brown guy, by the way.

714
00:44:04,110 --> 00:44:12,710
Trump media is not only stacking Bitcoin, but they're also doing a 50-50 merger with their fusion company right after our top fusion researcher gets fucking murdered in his house.

715
00:44:14,770 --> 00:44:17,510
So maybe it's Cope, maybe it's not.

716
00:44:17,850 --> 00:44:27,250
But I think there is a play where you see the strategic Bitcoin reserve stuff happen after him and his cronies have their bags fully packed.

717
00:44:27,250 --> 00:44:32,830
but as Haddle said, we do technically have a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

718
00:44:33,350 --> 00:44:36,270
It's mostly just not selling Bitcoin that we've already stolen.

719
00:44:36,750 --> 00:44:41,150
I do not like that the precedent is being set that stolen Bitcoin is seeding the reserve

720
00:44:41,150 --> 00:44:42,450
and will be used for the reserve.

721
00:44:42,690 --> 00:44:48,030
I would much rather see a law in the books that says stolen Bitcoin has to get burned.

722
00:44:48,890 --> 00:44:52,990
I would not advocate for a protocol change to force that though

723
00:44:52,990 --> 00:44:55,790
and that's where we all come back together.

724
00:44:55,790 --> 00:45:05,110
But I will say that, look, no matter how you cut it, you know, the last year of Biden versus this year, it's just been way better for Bitcoin. It's been so much better for Bitcoin.

725
00:45:05,110 --> 00:45:34,510
I'll say on the policy side, I think, you know, the guys at BPI are doing an incredible job. They only seem to be getting better and better as time goes on. And it's been nice to have our own think tank of really intelligent, smart, young, ambitious guys who are doing a lot of that legwork in Washington. And I'm very bullish on their team. And, you know, I think there are more policy wins ahead. I know they're working on a lot of stuff.

726
00:45:34,510 --> 00:45:41,530
obviously it's not so easy to get you know things accomplished in washington and it's a it's a big

727
00:45:41,530 --> 00:45:45,310
effort and it's a fucking you know daily grind you got to show up and really pound the pavement

728
00:45:45,310 --> 00:45:52,210
talk to people and shake hands and kiss babies um so yeah i think that we we are going to see

729
00:45:52,210 --> 00:45:56,150
more wins it's just you know we're going to have to be patient i will say um

730
00:45:56,150 --> 00:46:07,010
on the SBR side, not only did we have technically the SBR get created, but we also had a sovereign

731
00:46:07,010 --> 00:46:14,090
wealth fund get created. And the big one was, I think we bought like 10% of Intel.

732
00:46:14,930 --> 00:46:23,250
The US government did. Now, this is a non-zero call, but I'm definitely not confident in this

733
00:46:23,250 --> 00:46:29,870
call at all, but I'm just going to point and try and hit the home run. Next year, to stop the

734
00:46:29,870 --> 00:46:36,650
bleeding of the Bitcoin market, what if the US government goes out and buys 10, 20% of MicroStrategy

735
00:46:36,650 --> 00:46:44,750
at a discount and turns the whole fucking thing around? I don't think that's the most far-fetched

736
00:46:44,750 --> 00:46:50,630
scenario to play out. And actually, it would probably be way more positive. It would definitely

737
00:46:50,630 --> 00:46:54,390
be way more positive than going and stealing people's Bitcoin and putting it in the SBR.

738
00:46:54,390 --> 00:46:59,190
If they went and bought 10% of strategy, would that basically just lay the groundwork for them

739
00:46:59,190 --> 00:47:04,550
going in and stealing strategy in the future? And basically like bail out the entire industry

740
00:47:04,550 --> 00:47:13,270
by buying MicroStrategy at a discount. Yeah. I don't think there's any for them to steal coins

741
00:47:13,270 --> 00:47:20,610
when they can print currency, you know, like the, the reason that the, the strategic reserve is

742
00:47:20,610 --> 00:47:25,450
being seated with, you know, stolen Bitcoin or, you know, the, the investigation, uh, sorry,

743
00:47:25,550 --> 00:47:30,910
the, the proceeds, criminal proceeds from, uh, law enforcement investigations is because they

744
00:47:30,910 --> 00:47:35,650
thought that that was an easy, clean way that they could win on this and give the Bitcoiners

745
00:47:35,650 --> 00:47:41,590
what they promised us, uh, while also not stepping on toes in Washington. And to us,

746
00:47:41,590 --> 00:47:45,710
we see the negative, you know, long term downstream consequences of that action.

747
00:47:45,710 --> 00:47:48,230
But to them, it was just like, hey, here's an easy one.

748
00:47:48,230 --> 00:47:49,190
Give the Bitcoiners this.

749
00:47:49,190 --> 00:47:50,050
You know, we already have it.

750
00:47:50,050 --> 00:47:51,090
We already took it from the criminals.

751
00:47:51,090 --> 00:47:52,830
Just give it to them and put in the reserve or whatever.

752
00:47:53,950 --> 00:47:58,890
I think that I have said this as a MicroStrategy shareholder and I still own MicroStrategy.

753
00:47:59,250 --> 00:48:05,590
I've owned it for a while now, like five years now that I kind of think sometimes to myself

754
00:48:05,590 --> 00:48:10,530
when I'm alone, that we're just engaged in this project of stacking America's Bitcoin

755
00:48:11,590 --> 00:48:17,750
that's kind of what we're doing as mstr shareholders and i do think matt's call is

756
00:48:17,750 --> 00:48:22,310
probably going to age well that there will be some type of relationship between micro strategy and

757
00:48:22,310 --> 00:48:27,810
the u.s government similar to the intel relationship but like my question on that though is like

758
00:48:27,810 --> 00:48:33,790
do you have a like realistically be very honest do you have a fear that the u.s government steps in

759
00:48:33,790 --> 00:48:40,870
and tries to take strategies coins at some point um i i don't think they're gonna do it outright

760
00:48:40,870 --> 00:48:46,870
like that because it gives up the game of American capitalism. So that would be there in truly dire

761
00:48:46,870 --> 00:48:52,530
straits. And it's a Hail Mary effort, you know, at the very end of the game. I think much more

762
00:48:52,530 --> 00:48:56,750
likely it's going to be this slow and sippid thing, kind of like Matt pointed out where it's

763
00:48:56,750 --> 00:49:00,810
like you take a stake, then you take a slightly larger stake and take a slightly larger again,

764
00:49:00,870 --> 00:49:05,470
all with printed money. And then, you know, it's that's like getting something for nothing.

765
00:49:05,690 --> 00:49:10,650
So why do you need to come in as like jackboot thugs and steal it all in one go when you could

766
00:49:10,650 --> 00:49:16,470
just like sort of transgress slowly over time and end up with the entire horde anyway yeah it's an

767
00:49:16,470 --> 00:49:23,250
american technology company that's holding their bitcoin with multiple american financial companies

768
00:49:23,250 --> 00:49:30,530
um that's also i don't know what the exact amnav is right now but it's pretty close to trading at

769
00:49:30,530 --> 00:49:36,570
a discount if it's not already trading at a discount um so you can come in the shareholders

770
00:49:36,570 --> 00:49:38,590
would actually be very,

771
00:49:38,690 --> 00:49:39,610
I think would be positive

772
00:49:39,610 --> 00:49:41,070
after this year for MicroStrategy.

773
00:49:41,210 --> 00:49:43,030
I think shareholders would be ecstatic

774
00:49:43,030 --> 00:49:44,490
if Trump came out and announced

775
00:49:44,490 --> 00:49:46,970
that he bought 20% of MicroStrategy

776
00:49:46,970 --> 00:49:49,570
at a slight discount to market price.

777
00:49:51,250 --> 00:49:54,150
And I think most people would be happy

778
00:49:54,150 --> 00:49:56,990
as opposed to, as Hodel said,

779
00:49:57,070 --> 00:49:58,990
which is like pretty obvious,

780
00:49:59,030 --> 00:50:00,770
like authoritarianism move

781
00:50:00,770 --> 00:50:02,730
of just stealing all the Bitcoin.

782
00:50:03,270 --> 00:50:04,970
Now, I just want to put this out there

783
00:50:04,970 --> 00:50:06,810
once again,

784
00:50:07,810 --> 00:50:11,030
that, you know,

785
00:50:12,370 --> 00:50:15,190
the U.S. government could also see the SBR

786
00:50:15,190 --> 00:50:18,630
by having a secret quantum computer

787
00:50:18,630 --> 00:50:20,250
that attacks Satoshi's Bitcoin.

788
00:50:21,790 --> 00:50:24,970
And it's interesting, like, I wonder if,

789
00:50:25,150 --> 00:50:26,850
and I haven't had these conversations yet,

790
00:50:26,910 --> 00:50:28,810
and I plan to have it because I think this is going to be

791
00:50:28,810 --> 00:50:30,970
a very long conversation that happens for a while.

792
00:50:31,290 --> 00:50:34,070
But with the proponents of the freezing stuff,

793
00:50:34,070 --> 00:50:38,810
if it changes depending on who seizes it,

794
00:50:39,070 --> 00:50:42,530
who steals the Bitcoin.

795
00:50:42,630 --> 00:50:44,890
If it's the U.S. government and it gets seeded into an SBR,

796
00:50:45,010 --> 00:50:45,670
are they cool with it?

797
00:50:45,930 --> 00:50:48,310
If it's the Chinese government, are they not cool with it?

798
00:50:48,370 --> 00:50:51,770
If it's a startup, are startups not allowed to take it?

799
00:50:52,730 --> 00:50:54,950
It's interesting because it kind of changed.

800
00:50:54,950 --> 00:50:58,350
I think it changes people's framing on how they think about it.

801
00:50:59,630 --> 00:51:02,210
But yeah, I mean, for all intents and purposes,

802
00:51:02,210 --> 00:51:07,690
regardless if they buy a stake in MSTR.

803
00:51:09,150 --> 00:51:11,910
MSTR Bitcoin is American domiciled Bitcoin

804
00:51:11,910 --> 00:51:13,650
that can be taxed and harvested

805
00:51:13,650 --> 00:51:15,410
and taken advantage of.

806
00:51:15,650 --> 00:51:17,250
You don't have to actually seize it.

807
00:51:18,050 --> 00:51:18,650
Right, exactly.

808
00:51:19,190 --> 00:51:21,350
I want to talk a little bit about

809
00:51:21,350 --> 00:51:23,450
the samurai devs, Odell.

810
00:51:23,790 --> 00:51:25,050
This one's right up your alley.

811
00:51:25,490 --> 00:51:28,410
So this obviously didn't start under the Trump regime.

812
00:51:28,590 --> 00:51:29,550
This was under Biden.

813
00:51:29,550 --> 00:51:31,790
But when it went to court,

814
00:51:31,790 --> 00:51:34,870
I did expect them to get a more lenient sentence than they got.

815
00:51:35,010 --> 00:51:37,190
Like it was the absolute maximum I think they were up for.

816
00:51:38,090 --> 00:51:41,310
Do you think there's any chance, like realistic chance of a pardon for them?

817
00:51:42,050 --> 00:51:50,330
Well, they were being charged with conspiracy for money laundering conspiracy, which had up to 25 years.

818
00:51:50,470 --> 00:51:58,310
And they were being charged for unlicensed money transmitter business, which is basically like not running KYC on like a financial institution, which had a charge of five years.

819
00:51:58,310 --> 00:52:01,310
and they pled guilty in a plea deal

820
00:52:01,310 --> 00:52:04,110
for the unlicensed money transmitter business

821
00:52:04,110 --> 00:52:06,870
to drop the money laundering charge

822
00:52:06,870 --> 00:52:10,310
and then got hit with the max sentencing for that.

823
00:52:10,390 --> 00:52:11,330
So they got five years.

824
00:52:12,270 --> 00:52:14,190
So they didn't, you know,

825
00:52:14,290 --> 00:52:16,510
technically they didn't get the max sentencing.

826
00:52:16,710 --> 00:52:19,890
Now, it's a self-custody wallet.

827
00:52:20,070 --> 00:52:21,750
Like FinCEN themselves said

828
00:52:21,750 --> 00:52:23,430
they are not a money transmitter business.

829
00:52:23,550 --> 00:52:25,510
So it's a ridiculous fucking charge

830
00:52:25,510 --> 00:52:26,870
to be found guilty of.

831
00:52:27,310 --> 00:52:29,550
Now, the counter argument is that they pled to it.

832
00:52:30,650 --> 00:52:32,390
Now, Keon and Bill,

833
00:52:33,270 --> 00:52:36,170
Keon has publicly said that it was basically a coerced plea.

834
00:52:36,410 --> 00:52:38,630
He was looking there, they have families.

835
00:52:40,030 --> 00:52:44,610
They were afraid they were going to get thrown in jail for 25 years.

836
00:52:45,410 --> 00:52:46,990
And they took the deal.

837
00:52:48,870 --> 00:52:50,470
I would like to see them pardoned.

838
00:52:50,490 --> 00:52:51,430
I think it's a travesty.

839
00:52:51,570 --> 00:52:53,610
I think it's really bad for America.

840
00:52:54,450 --> 00:52:56,670
I think it's worse for America than it is for Bitcoin.

841
00:52:57,730 --> 00:53:05,270
But as an American, as someone who builds businesses here, as someone who's building a family here, like I would like to see that wrong righted.

842
00:53:07,530 --> 00:53:16,290
But yeah, I think it's important to realize, once again, I'm not a lawyer, but this is a federal court, but it's the New York federal court.

843
00:53:16,610 --> 00:53:18,490
This is the same court that went after Trump.

844
00:53:18,490 --> 00:53:23,770
This is, you know, in a lot of ways, I think leftovers of the Biden administration.

845
00:53:24,330 --> 00:53:26,210
And Trump has got a bunch of things on his plate.

846
00:53:26,870 --> 00:53:30,070
for him to like preemptively get involved there

847
00:53:30,070 --> 00:53:33,030
is like, was never really going to happen.

848
00:53:33,130 --> 00:53:34,930
We also didn't have that much money behind them.

849
00:53:35,330 --> 00:53:38,910
You know, like I was involved in raising their fundraising.

850
00:53:39,930 --> 00:53:42,430
Like I think we ended up getting like in legal defense ones

851
00:53:42,430 --> 00:53:43,790
like a little over a million dollars.

852
00:53:43,790 --> 00:53:47,770
If you're someone like CZ or Justin Sun or whatever,

853
00:53:48,030 --> 00:53:51,870
you can pay Trump like tens of millions of dollars

854
00:53:51,870 --> 00:53:53,570
to guarantee a pardon.

855
00:53:54,330 --> 00:53:56,690
We just didn't have that kind of capital behind us.

856
00:53:56,690 --> 00:54:00,930
So it needs to be more of a narrative story, I think, to reach him because I think that does work with him.

857
00:54:01,150 --> 00:54:02,910
And he has commented on it recently.

858
00:54:03,090 --> 00:54:05,870
So hopefully we hopefully we do see a part in here.

859
00:54:05,970 --> 00:54:07,310
I think I think they deserve one.

860
00:54:07,370 --> 00:54:08,330
I think it's good for the country.

861
00:54:08,510 --> 00:54:09,110
Wait, I missed that.

862
00:54:09,150 --> 00:54:10,690
Did Trump comment on the Samurai case?

863
00:54:11,290 --> 00:54:16,950
Yeah, there was a decrypt reporter specifically in the White House that asked him about it and he didn't seem aware of it.

864
00:54:17,710 --> 00:54:19,310
But he said he was going to look into it.

865
00:54:19,310 --> 00:54:30,270
I watched the videos of that Keone's wife had posted, you know, of him going into prison and, you know, them having Chris early Christmas dinner, obviously, because he was going to be in federal prison.

866
00:54:30,270 --> 00:54:37,710
And those were very difficult to watch. And, you know, I think there's a like Matt said, like the plea thing, by the way, is the norm.

867
00:54:38,150 --> 00:54:42,470
It is coerced, but that's why the feds have such a high win rate is because they coerce everybody.

868
00:54:42,870 --> 00:54:46,930
So the feds really don't bring a case against you unless they know they can win it.

869
00:54:46,930 --> 00:54:48,830
and the way they win it is by being like,

870
00:54:48,830 --> 00:54:50,070
you're going away forever,

871
00:54:50,070 --> 00:54:52,890
or you can go away for this five year stretch

872
00:54:52,890 --> 00:54:54,810
and get back to your life after five years.

873
00:54:54,810 --> 00:54:56,690
And like, again, if you have a family

874
00:54:56,690 --> 00:54:58,290
and you're looking at 30 years versus five,

875
00:54:58,290 --> 00:55:00,070
the smart play is to take five every time.

876
00:55:00,070 --> 00:55:03,370
And like, it doesn't, you know, make you cool on Twitter,

877
00:55:03,370 --> 00:55:05,450
but who gives a shit about being cool on Twitter

878
00:55:05,450 --> 00:55:08,070
when you're talking about missing 25 more birthdays

879
00:55:08,070 --> 00:55:09,590
of your children, right?

880
00:55:09,590 --> 00:55:12,050
And so that's a really rough reality

881
00:55:12,050 --> 00:55:12,890
that they're going through.

882
00:55:12,890 --> 00:55:14,370
And I think the thing that Matt was talking about,

883
00:55:14,370 --> 00:55:16,670
the reason why it's bad for America

884
00:55:16,670 --> 00:55:18,750
is because, you know, I'm not a lawyer either,

885
00:55:18,850 --> 00:55:21,410
but in America, the law of the land is essentially

886
00:55:21,410 --> 00:55:23,410
that if something is not explicitly illegal,

887
00:55:23,590 --> 00:55:25,050
that it is legal to do.

888
00:55:25,630 --> 00:55:29,410
And in the case of, you know, coin joint implementations,

889
00:55:29,730 --> 00:55:32,990
in my opinion, those were in a legal gray area.

890
00:55:33,090 --> 00:55:34,590
They had not been explicitly defined.

891
00:55:35,190 --> 00:55:36,830
And so I think it's actually, you know,

892
00:55:36,870 --> 00:55:38,010
I think it is a disaster

893
00:55:38,010 --> 00:55:40,870
that we're throwing startup investors in jail

894
00:55:40,870 --> 00:55:43,310
for doing things in the fintech space

895
00:55:43,310 --> 00:55:46,570
that were not strictly illegal, you know?

896
00:55:46,670 --> 00:55:50,630
I mean, the government's claim is that they were strictly illegal based on intent, essentially.

897
00:55:51,010 --> 00:55:52,850
But that's not my view at all.

898
00:55:52,910 --> 00:55:56,830
And I think, like, if you look at the cases of, you know, Ross Ulbricht versus Keown Rodriguez,

899
00:55:57,530 --> 00:56:04,270
you know, Ross is doing something that's much more explicitly illegal than Keown was.

900
00:56:04,970 --> 00:56:07,790
And not that I think it was wrong what he did or morally wrong.

901
00:56:07,970 --> 00:56:09,430
You know, I think Ross deserves to be free.

902
00:56:09,550 --> 00:56:11,870
But like, to me, the samurai case is even cleaner.

903
00:56:12,170 --> 00:56:14,970
And I do think that, you know, these are our guys.

904
00:56:15,090 --> 00:56:15,450
Right.

905
00:56:15,530 --> 00:56:16,110
So, like.

906
00:56:16,670 --> 00:56:20,750
Yeah. I mean, there was a flame wars on Twitter and, you know, were you Wasabi or were you Sam?

907
00:56:20,750 --> 00:56:24,030
Who gives a fuck? We're all Bitcoiners. These are our guys. We don't leave anybody behind.

908
00:56:24,030 --> 00:56:27,630
Let's go get them out of jail. You know, period. We got Ross out. Let's go get them out.

909
00:56:27,630 --> 00:56:29,790
Yeah. I think the narrative is going to be really important because like

910
00:56:30,670 --> 00:56:36,030
the reason Ross is free is like obviously down to a ton of amazing work from like his mom and the

911
00:56:36,030 --> 00:56:40,990
libertarian group and then Bitcoiners. But it was also a really strong narrative that resonated with

912
00:56:40,990 --> 00:56:45,470
Trump voters. Like, I think we need to make a lot of noise and try and make him care about this topic.

913
00:56:45,470 --> 00:56:54,430
But Oda, was it frustrating that this only raised like just over a million dollars when I think the Tornado Cash guy raised, was it 10 times that amount?

914
00:56:55,190 --> 00:57:10,550
Yeah, I mean, look, it was super frustrating trying to build support for this stuff behind the scenes and in public while all the limelight was on name and influencer joining a treasury company board.

915
00:57:10,550 --> 00:57:13,530
Like that's literally just to get their piece, right?

916
00:57:13,530 --> 00:57:17,790
like they weren't doing it for the good of bitcoin let's be honest here that's fine they

917
00:57:17,790 --> 00:57:24,850
were doing it to get their bread and and to reward their family for years of twitter posting that's

918
00:57:24,850 --> 00:57:29,710
what they were doing and that was highlighted as being like heroic and people were like like bitcoin

919
00:57:29,710 --> 00:57:34,210
twitter became like linkedin it was like i'm joining the board of bullshit treasury company

920
00:57:34,210 --> 00:57:37,610
and then all the posts underneath was like congrats congrats congrats congrats congrats

921
00:57:37,610 --> 00:57:45,510
Congrats. And then meanwhile, like fundraising or getting any kind of real tangible support for Samurai was was really floundering.

922
00:57:46,130 --> 00:57:49,370
Now, I will say that was very disappointing this year.

923
00:57:49,370 --> 00:57:58,810
But the last month or so, it's been really it's been really cool to see people coming around to there's been a lot more support than I've expected.

924
00:57:58,810 --> 00:58:04,710
So I think on the positive side, it's been it's it's been good to see in the last month.

925
00:58:04,710 --> 00:58:22,490
I will also say it's been broader than Bitcoin. Like we're seeing it in libertarian circles. We're seeing it just in freedom-minded circles. I mean, Keon got on a television show in the UK. Like they hate freedom over there. But for some reason, they wanted to support Samurai. And like that was really cool to see.

926
00:58:22,490 --> 00:58:33,330
I want to be clear here on the American side. None of us are lawyers. And there's a lot of

927
00:58:33,330 --> 00:58:39,350
misunderstanding. This doesn't set a legal precedent in America because they pled. If they

928
00:58:39,350 --> 00:58:45,050
tried to fight it and lost, then it would have set a legal precedent. So there's not a legal precedent

929
00:58:45,050 --> 00:58:50,530
we have to be worried here. CoinJoin, self-custody wallets, privacy-focused self-custody wallets

930
00:58:50,530 --> 00:58:52,050
remain in a legal gray area.

931
00:58:52,490 --> 00:58:53,870
That's where we are right now.

932
00:58:54,090 --> 00:58:55,510
But what has happened,

933
00:58:55,630 --> 00:58:56,770
and I see this all the time,

934
00:58:56,850 --> 00:58:59,030
particularly on the OpenSat side,

935
00:58:59,230 --> 00:59:01,230
where we're supporting, you know,

936
00:59:01,310 --> 00:59:04,190
350 plus developers in 40 plus countries,

937
00:59:04,990 --> 00:59:07,650
is there has been a tangible chilling effect

938
00:59:07,650 --> 00:59:09,650
on people working on self-custody

939
00:59:09,650 --> 00:59:11,330
and privacy-focused software, period.

940
00:59:11,750 --> 00:59:12,650
And that makes sense

941
00:59:12,650 --> 00:59:14,630
because no one wants to be thrown in jail.

942
00:59:14,630 --> 00:59:16,790
And it's worse than just being thrown in jail.

943
00:59:17,030 --> 00:59:19,290
They had like 40 plus federal agents with guns

944
00:59:19,290 --> 00:59:20,410
raid his fucking house.

945
00:59:20,530 --> 00:59:25,610
like he did just a non-violent if he was a criminal it's a non-violent crime

946
00:59:25,610 --> 00:59:32,770
and they they did like a tactical raid on his house to or to arrest him which is insane is that

947
00:59:32,770 --> 00:59:37,350
chilling effect still there because i know after they got arrested like wallace toshi pulled out

948
00:59:37,350 --> 00:59:42,630
the u.s phoenix pulled out the u.s but they're i think both now back now um and obviously like

949
00:59:42,630 --> 00:59:46,170
trump gave people some degree of confidence that they could build this stuff without going to prison

950
00:59:46,170 --> 00:59:50,270
but do you think that's not enough is there still that sort of chilling effect happening

951
00:59:50,850 --> 00:59:51,210
Yeah, man.

952
00:59:51,270 --> 00:59:52,750
I mean, I was an investor in Mutiny.

953
00:59:52,850 --> 00:59:53,930
I think Matt was as well.

954
00:59:54,110 --> 00:59:59,910
And like Mutiny, you know, the day this happened, like came down, they were like, you know, we're going to be a privacy focused AI company now.

955
00:59:59,910 --> 01:00:05,770
So like they just completely shut down the business and went a different direction because they were planning to make money on CoinJoin implementations.

956
01:00:06,250 --> 01:00:07,370
So, yeah.

957
01:00:07,650 --> 01:00:19,830
I will just say, I will just say, I don't know if that pivot was only because of legal concerns, because if I'm going to make another call, like I think privacy focused AI.

958
01:00:20,270 --> 01:00:23,810
might become even more of a hot-button issue

959
01:00:23,810 --> 01:00:25,810
than privacy-focused financial transactions.

960
01:00:26,590 --> 01:00:30,230
But at the time, I'm not sure that was for, you know.

961
01:00:30,310 --> 01:00:32,810
Yeah, I think there was a lot of disillusionment,

962
01:00:32,990 --> 01:00:34,510
and I'm not going to put words in their mouth,

963
01:00:34,510 --> 01:00:39,930
but I think there was just a feeling that it wasn't,

964
01:00:40,730 --> 01:00:42,730
you know, trying to build a business

965
01:00:42,730 --> 01:00:45,870
that is focused on freedom usage of Bitcoin

966
01:00:45,870 --> 01:00:48,410
is a very hard business to run, period.

967
01:00:49,270 --> 01:00:50,970
There's not a huge market for it.

968
01:00:52,050 --> 01:00:55,150
Most of the successes we've seen in the industry

969
01:00:55,150 --> 01:00:58,210
is financial services, is buy, sell Bitcoin, is loans.

970
01:00:58,690 --> 01:01:01,430
That's where you see the real business opportunities, right?

971
01:01:01,530 --> 01:01:03,110
Like, strike is absolutely crushing.

972
01:01:04,590 --> 01:01:07,370
Companies that are trying to focus on freedom-focused Bitcoin

973
01:01:07,370 --> 01:01:09,190
are having a much harder time.

974
01:01:09,710 --> 01:01:11,450
And then with the Samurai stuff, it's like,

975
01:01:11,450 --> 01:01:23,555
and then so you either completely fail as a business or if you somehow find success Samurai found a lot of success They were very profitable Then you get thrown in jail It like you lose in either situation

976
01:01:24,095 --> 01:01:27,755
And on the phoenix in the wild of Satoshi side, because I think that was a bit of an

977
01:01:27,755 --> 01:01:33,915
overreaction by non-American based companies that thought a very easy risk management solution

978
01:01:33,915 --> 01:01:38,235
was to just remove themselves from the US market, which I think it could even be argued

979
01:01:38,235 --> 01:01:39,635
that that doesn't really help you anyway

980
01:01:39,635 --> 01:01:41,995
because, I mean, they're not doing KYC on users.

981
01:01:42,275 --> 01:01:44,775
So Americans could get around it regardless.

982
01:01:44,955 --> 01:01:46,895
But those aren't privacy-focused wallets.

983
01:01:47,115 --> 01:01:48,355
Like you don't really get,

984
01:01:49,095 --> 01:01:51,075
you're getting no privacy benefits really

985
01:01:51,075 --> 01:01:52,255
from using wallets Satoshi.

986
01:01:52,395 --> 01:01:53,675
It's relatively easy to track,

987
01:01:53,835 --> 01:01:55,395
particularly in their new configuration.

988
01:01:56,315 --> 01:01:59,195
And with Phoenix, like Phoenix sees all your transactions.

989
01:01:59,895 --> 01:02:02,035
So if they are hit with a subpoena or something,

990
01:02:02,035 --> 01:02:03,835
we don't know if they're complying with them or not

991
01:02:03,835 --> 01:02:05,875
to track transactions.

992
01:02:06,015 --> 01:02:06,935
So it's a little bit different.

993
01:02:06,935 --> 01:02:18,595
If you're looking at people working on join market, which is like a direct one-to-one comparison, you know, it's a coin join implementation that doesn't rely on a centralized server, but it's completely open source.

994
01:02:18,895 --> 01:02:21,735
Like there has been a massive chilling effect on that side.

995
01:02:22,615 --> 01:02:32,955
And I think there was a bunch of, there remains a bunch of developers that were more experienced on privacy focused Bitcoin that have just stepped away.

996
01:02:33,955 --> 01:02:36,775
I'm just going to focus on my family and I'm not going to deal with that.

997
01:02:36,935 --> 01:02:38,255
Yeah, that's not good to see.

998
01:02:38,415 --> 01:02:40,675
Like, if you're looking forward, this can be a prediction.

999
01:02:40,895 --> 01:02:41,955
We'll see if it was right or wrong.

1000
01:02:42,035 --> 01:02:43,575
Do you think this gets better or worse?

1001
01:02:46,115 --> 01:02:46,515
Worse.

1002
01:02:46,955 --> 01:02:48,775
You think we're going to see more devs thrown in jail?

1003
01:02:50,995 --> 01:02:56,195
I think that the two things that, okay, listen, like the days of us saying, you know, hey,

1004
01:02:56,275 --> 01:02:57,815
they're going to ban Bitcoin, that's over.

1005
01:02:57,935 --> 01:02:58,835
It's completely over.

1006
01:02:59,255 --> 01:03:02,115
They're not going to ban something Larry Fink is all on board with.

1007
01:03:02,795 --> 01:03:05,115
So what's the reality of the situation?

1008
01:03:05,115 --> 01:03:08,735
The reality is they want to dox you and they want to tax you.

1009
01:03:09,315 --> 01:03:14,875
OK, so if you're doing things that prevent the government from doxing and taxing, the

1010
01:03:14,875 --> 01:03:18,355
doxing is for the taxing, by the way, the taxing is the big thing because they want to take

1011
01:03:18,355 --> 01:03:18,995
your money from you.

1012
01:03:19,715 --> 01:03:24,815
If you're doing things that prevent the government from being able to, you know, levy their tax

1013
01:03:24,815 --> 01:03:28,995
against you, you're going to come under the eye of Sauron, is my opinion.

1014
01:03:29,295 --> 01:03:32,035
And I don't think that that's going to get any better anytime soon.

1015
01:03:32,035 --> 01:03:39,175
And I think, in fact, like Matt was alluding to this, the AI world that we're heading into makes privacy a whole shitload worse.

1016
01:03:39,995 --> 01:03:41,915
So it's only going to get worse from here.

1017
01:03:42,795 --> 01:03:50,535
And I think there's going to be a lot of controversy about anyone who's offering any kind of private AI stuff and, quote unquote, what are they doing with it?

1018
01:03:50,975 --> 01:03:53,075
And we can't track them and we can't control them.

1019
01:03:53,595 --> 01:03:58,015
I think on the social media side, we've also seen a push towards more KYC and less privacy.

1020
01:03:58,015 --> 01:04:02,255
I mean, the UK particularly has kind of been leading the way for that in the Western world.

1021
01:04:02,335 --> 01:04:04,935
It's absolutely insane that people are being thrown in jail for tweets.

1022
01:04:06,955 --> 01:04:10,015
So I think it probably gets worse before it gets better.

1023
01:04:10,695 --> 01:04:13,415
I do think the cat's out of the bag, though.

1024
01:04:13,515 --> 01:04:22,175
I think it's going to, you know, I think freedom technology will be there for people who want to use it.

1025
01:04:22,375 --> 01:04:25,075
And it's going to be, it's basically impossible to stop.

1026
01:04:26,055 --> 01:04:40,215
Now, the one thing on the Bitcoin side that could throw a wrench in all of this, which is non-zero but not likely, is some kind of near-term cap gains policy shift.

1027
01:04:40,215 --> 01:04:44,975
if Bitcoin is not subject to cap gains.

1028
01:04:45,675 --> 01:04:46,615
And I'm not talking about like,

1029
01:04:47,555 --> 01:04:50,455
and this is so unlikely because of the bullshit.

1030
01:04:51,355 --> 01:04:53,415
Even the most likely outcome of this

1031
01:04:53,415 --> 01:04:55,775
is like a $600 de minimis or something,

1032
01:04:55,855 --> 01:04:56,615
which is insane.

1033
01:04:56,715 --> 01:05:00,275
It's like you can't even buy groceries with $600.

1034
01:05:02,775 --> 01:05:05,535
If they remove that aspect,

1035
01:05:05,935 --> 01:05:08,835
then all of a sudden that incentive, right?

1036
01:05:08,835 --> 01:05:13,115
that incentive to go after people that want financial privacy gets removed.

1037
01:05:13,235 --> 01:05:14,615
And I think this is bigger than Bitcoin.

1038
01:05:14,995 --> 01:05:20,675
Like, I think, I mean, I think we should remove cap gains across all asset classes, period.

1039
01:05:21,435 --> 01:05:21,655
Right?

1040
01:05:21,715 --> 01:05:23,055
There shouldn't be cap gains on gold either.

1041
01:05:23,755 --> 01:05:27,395
But the reason this is unlikely is because in a hyperinflationary environment,

1042
01:05:28,495 --> 01:05:30,975
cap gains is quite lucrative for the government, right?

1043
01:05:30,975 --> 01:05:34,895
They print money, and then you have fake gains that aren't real gains,

1044
01:05:34,995 --> 01:05:36,735
but they're denominated in their bullshit currency,

1045
01:05:36,735 --> 01:05:39,955
and then they take fucking 20 to 50% of it.

1046
01:05:40,575 --> 01:05:41,695
And it's across the whole,

1047
01:05:41,775 --> 01:05:43,455
in America, it's across the whole stack, right?

1048
01:05:43,555 --> 01:05:45,635
Like the local governments take some too.

1049
01:05:46,735 --> 01:05:47,975
See, the thing that I can,

1050
01:05:48,095 --> 01:05:49,235
like I've been asking this question

1051
01:05:49,235 --> 01:05:51,035
for the entire time I've been doing the podcast,

1052
01:05:51,155 --> 01:05:53,135
but like is this future scenario

1053
01:05:53,135 --> 01:05:54,635
that you're both kind of outlying,

1054
01:05:55,195 --> 01:05:56,715
is that Bitcoin winning?

1055
01:05:56,895 --> 01:05:57,815
I don't know if it is.

1056
01:05:59,375 --> 01:06:00,635
It's, it's a nest.

1057
01:06:00,715 --> 01:06:01,815
I've been saying this for years

1058
01:06:01,815 --> 01:06:03,095
and I think I'm right on it.

1059
01:06:03,335 --> 01:06:04,575
You know, I don't think I'm right about the price,

1060
01:06:04,635 --> 01:06:05,435
but I think I'm right about the,

1061
01:06:05,435 --> 01:06:15,755
which is that we are going to have to go through this period of sort of co-option or shadow

1062
01:06:15,755 --> 01:06:22,375
prohibition or, you know, ghettoization, like whatever you want to call it, where Bitcoin

1063
01:06:22,375 --> 01:06:28,975
enters the traditional system and it kind of appears like we're losing freedoms, but we're,

1064
01:06:28,975 --> 01:06:35,075
you know, still maintaining number go up. But those freedoms don't go away. So like they're

1065
01:06:35,075 --> 01:06:41,435
intrinsic to Bitcoin and really it's just laws on paper that, you know, it's the problem here again,

1066
01:06:41,535 --> 01:06:47,855
is that there's this global cabal that sets the rules. Like whenever you have a revolution of

1067
01:06:47,855 --> 01:06:52,935
elites, it's about rulemaking. Who's allowed to set rules for whom? Who's allowed to change rules?

1068
01:06:53,455 --> 01:06:57,995
Who sits at the table of power, right? And there's a small club that has all of the money.

1069
01:06:58,235 --> 01:07:01,315
They have all of the guns and they make all of the laws and none of us are in that club.

1070
01:07:01,315 --> 01:07:06,315
so it's going to take some time as we march forward change you know progress happens one

1071
01:07:06,315 --> 01:07:14,055
funeral at a time um it's going to take some time for us basically to get a seat at the table of

1072
01:07:14,055 --> 01:07:18,395
power and be able to rewrite the rules to enable more freedom and i think that if you're in bitcoin

1073
01:07:18,395 --> 01:07:22,575
it's a long journey it's a long bet and if you think that you're you know yeah like we had a

1074
01:07:22,575 --> 01:07:28,175
year this year okay who gives a fuck like i'm not i'm not buying gold i'm not going into tech stocks

1075
01:07:28,175 --> 01:07:32,515
I'm still here. I'm going to be here for the foreseeable future. And I will be here during

1076
01:07:32,515 --> 01:07:36,555
the shadow co-option period. And, you know, there'll be an old version of American HODL,

1077
01:07:36,715 --> 01:07:41,075
gray hair, who will tell you like, I'm glad I went through it, son. And now we're sitting here,

1078
01:07:41,075 --> 01:07:47,255
you know, with more freedom and, you know, whatever. I think that it's a necessary part

1079
01:07:47,255 --> 01:07:52,275
of this whole thing because Bitcoin has to enter into the traditional system

1080
01:07:52,275 --> 01:07:58,115
in order to continue to succeed. If Bitcoin remains as outside capital forever,

1081
01:07:58,175 --> 01:08:04,615
it never fulfills its mandate. Yeah, I mean, this is just Bitcoin growing up. I think, look,

1082
01:08:04,775 --> 01:08:10,555
the success of any freedom technology, whether that's Bitcoin or something like Tor or message

1083
01:08:10,555 --> 01:08:16,795
encryption or private AI, the success is always a small subset of users. It's just the ability for

1084
01:08:16,795 --> 01:08:21,735
anyone to decide to take that path if they're ready to take that path. But the problem is,

1085
01:08:21,795 --> 01:08:26,495
the core problem is that it requires more personal responsibility. And people don't want to take

1086
01:08:26,495 --> 01:08:30,295
personal responsibility. Personal responsibility is more difficult. If you can live your life

1087
01:08:30,295 --> 01:08:35,915
without taking personal responsibility, then other people deal with your shit for you. And then if

1088
01:08:35,915 --> 01:08:40,835
it's not that bad, then people are just going to take that path. I think it's important for us to

1089
01:08:40,835 --> 01:08:47,215
give people the tools and the education available to them so that they can choose that path. But

1090
01:08:47,215 --> 01:08:51,715
like I said, I think success is like, I've said this in the past on your show, like I think success

1091
01:08:51,715 --> 01:08:55,475
This is like zero to 5% of people using this stuff.

1092
01:08:55,975 --> 01:09:06,655
And I just want to reiterate on the financial privacy aspects specifically and where it relates to Bitcoin is I think people don't realize it is all downstream of tax policy.

1093
01:09:06,975 --> 01:09:19,955
Because tax policy is why the U.S. government wants to track every financial transaction, whether that's income tax, pretty much everything except property taxes and tariffs is why they want to track every transaction.

1094
01:09:19,955 --> 01:09:30,815
Sales tax. Sales tax is the government sitting in between you and the person you're buying something from. And if they can't track every transaction there, then they'd be worried that they're not collecting all of their taxes.

1095
01:09:31,615 --> 01:09:42,875
So one of the most optimistic things on the financial privacy side that Trump has said was early on, he said he was going to slash taxes across the board. We just haven't seen that.

1096
01:09:42,875 --> 01:09:59,575
And that was one of the reasons I was cautiously optimistic about tariff policy, is because tariffs are actually a tax policy that does not require financial surveillance on citizens. It just requires financial surveillance at the borders when stuff enters. But we haven't seen that.

1097
01:09:59,575 --> 01:10:09,275
And unless we see that, which is still, I think, very unlikely, there's going to be a war on financial privacy, period.

1098
01:10:09,615 --> 01:10:17,255
Even though most people need financial privacy not to avoid, it's not to cheat on taxes.

1099
01:10:18,435 --> 01:10:19,795
Like, that's not the reason.

1100
01:10:19,795 --> 01:10:33,575
One thing I've been thinking, especially after I had marks on from OpenSecret, and I do think that private AI might open people's eyes to privacy before anything about financial privacy even enters their equation.

1101
01:10:33,715 --> 01:10:41,095
Like, I think when people see how much data is being stolen from AI and how that can potentially be used against them, I think that's going to be like a sliding doors moment.

1102
01:10:41,095 --> 01:10:48,275
you'd think that with a lot of other things um but i the yeah the main the main use case of ai

1103
01:10:48,275 --> 01:10:53,095
regardless of the chat stuff right like chat gpt is tracking everything you do and they're gonna

1104
01:10:53,095 --> 01:10:59,935
harvest that data but like the main use case of ai at scale right now is surveilling people

1105
01:10:59,935 --> 01:11:06,555
right you take you take all the data that that the governments and and companies already have

1106
01:11:06,555 --> 01:11:10,635
and you run it through an llm it's great at parsing through that data and giving you actionable

1107
01:11:10,635 --> 01:11:19,735
insights on that data. I think it's kind of questionable if that's going to be, you know,

1108
01:11:19,835 --> 01:11:26,055
what shows people the light. I think maybe, yeah, I think what we see is we see data leaks happen,

1109
01:11:26,495 --> 01:11:31,215
compromises happen, people realize the need for privacy, but it's a smaller subset that do,

1110
01:11:31,215 --> 01:11:38,275
right? The overwhelming majority do not actually, they're the proverbial frog boiling in the pot

1111
01:11:38,275 --> 01:11:39,235
slowly

1112
01:11:39,235 --> 01:11:42,135
then they don't

1113
01:11:42,135 --> 01:11:43,995
actually get shocked into

1114
01:11:43,995 --> 01:11:45,675
moving away from it.

1115
01:11:47,355 --> 01:11:48,795
Matt, I know you've got

1116
01:11:48,795 --> 01:11:50,675
a hard stop coming up soon-ish.

1117
01:11:52,015 --> 01:11:52,615
Can we do something?

1118
01:11:52,615 --> 01:11:54,455
I got 40 minutes. Oh, I thought you had 10 minutes.

1119
01:11:54,555 --> 01:11:56,495
Okay, cool. Should we do some predictions

1120
01:11:56,495 --> 01:11:58,595
for next year? The one I really want

1121
01:11:58,595 --> 01:11:59,415
from you, Matt, is

1122
01:11:59,415 --> 01:12:02,795
what year will we hit 250k

1123
01:12:02,795 --> 01:12:03,735
by conference day?

1124
01:12:04,635 --> 01:12:06,535
I said 200k by conference day

1125
01:12:06,535 --> 01:12:07,655
and that was in 2021.

1126
01:12:08,275 --> 01:12:09,835
Okay, so when will we get that?

1127
01:12:09,835 --> 01:12:12,195
Honestly, it was mostly,

1128
01:12:12,695 --> 01:12:17,375
originally it was mostly to troll the engagement accounts.

1129
01:12:17,695 --> 01:12:18,855
We just made fun of Tom Lee.

1130
01:12:18,915 --> 01:12:19,835
They all do this, right?

1131
01:12:19,995 --> 01:12:21,435
Samson and his Omega candle.

1132
01:12:21,595 --> 01:12:22,995
They do it every fucking cycle.

1133
01:12:23,635 --> 01:12:23,875
It works.

1134
01:12:24,695 --> 01:12:26,155
Yeah, I had enough of it that cycle.

1135
01:12:26,235 --> 01:12:28,155
So in all caps, I was saying 200K by conference day.

1136
01:12:28,435 --> 01:12:29,975
Now where I will put my hand up

1137
01:12:29,975 --> 01:12:31,875
is I thought we were going to at least hit 100K.

1138
01:12:32,615 --> 01:12:35,215
I think it was like $35,000 during the conference.

1139
01:12:35,595 --> 01:12:37,975
So I was way the fuck off, like hand up.

1140
01:12:38,275 --> 01:12:38,975
That's on me.

1141
01:12:39,715 --> 01:12:40,135
But who knows?

1142
01:12:40,235 --> 01:12:41,935
Maybe we never hit 200K.

1143
01:12:42,235 --> 01:12:46,295
Maybe gold becomes the reserve currency of the world.

1144
01:12:46,375 --> 01:12:47,395
Gold is always the play.

1145
01:12:48,575 --> 01:12:50,175
I just, I really, look.

1146
01:12:52,495 --> 01:12:54,895
Hoddle nailed this earlier,

1147
01:12:55,295 --> 01:12:56,175
which is like,

1148
01:12:58,115 --> 01:13:00,855
our freedoms seem to be constantly eroding,

1149
01:13:01,835 --> 01:13:03,255
particularly in the digital world.

1150
01:13:03,655 --> 01:13:06,355
But at least we were soothed by number go up.

1151
01:13:06,355 --> 01:13:08,615
I do not like the scenario

1152
01:13:08,615 --> 01:13:10,795
where our freedoms are getting constantly eroded

1153
01:13:10,795 --> 01:13:12,475
and we don't have number go up as well

1154
01:13:12,475 --> 01:13:13,375
so I'm hoping

1155
01:13:13,375 --> 01:13:15,855
I'm optimistic and hoping

1156
01:13:15,855 --> 01:13:17,795
that we see 200k next year

1157
01:13:17,795 --> 01:13:18,615
that would be nice

1158
01:13:18,615 --> 01:13:19,855
I'd be down for that

1159
01:13:19,855 --> 01:13:21,535
I'm all in on Bitcoin and then some

1160
01:13:21,535 --> 01:13:24,015
so that would be ideal

1161
01:13:24,015 --> 01:13:26,795
but I don't pretend to have any fucking idea

1162
01:13:26,795 --> 01:13:29,115
it doesn't have to be price predictions

1163
01:13:29,115 --> 01:13:31,255
but anything you want to put your neck on the line

1164
01:13:31,255 --> 01:13:32,835
and claim for 2026

1165
01:13:32,835 --> 01:13:35,815
HODL

1166
01:13:35,815 --> 01:13:47,275
um yeah a million a million a coin of course no uh so i you know sentiment is shit sentiment is

1167
01:13:47,275 --> 01:13:55,095
something worst i've ever seen it honestly and yeah i i don't think sentiment was this bad during

1168
01:13:55,095 --> 01:14:02,455
ftx at least not amongst the bitcoin faithful i was at a uh i was at a bitcoin beefsteak um

1169
01:14:02,455 --> 01:14:05,195
you know, at 15K Bitcoin, right?

1170
01:14:05,315 --> 01:14:06,475
Like 16K Bitcoin.

1171
01:14:06,915 --> 01:14:08,595
And this was after the FTX implosion

1172
01:14:08,595 --> 01:14:10,475
and vibes were high, actually.

1173
01:14:11,255 --> 01:14:13,335
There was, you know, like people were playing guitar

1174
01:14:13,335 --> 01:14:14,975
and like it was like, you know,

1175
01:14:15,135 --> 01:14:16,415
we were having drinks.

1176
01:14:16,535 --> 01:14:17,255
Everybody was like,

1177
01:14:17,295 --> 01:14:20,335
there was like a calm energy of we're going to win.

1178
01:14:20,975 --> 01:14:24,075
And now there's this energy,

1179
01:14:24,655 --> 01:14:26,395
even amongst like OGs I know,

1180
01:14:26,495 --> 01:14:28,715
that's like, this is fucked.

1181
01:14:29,355 --> 01:14:31,575
We should just sell all our shit and just be rich.

1182
01:14:31,575 --> 01:14:38,055
fuck all this you know I mean that's like the I'm just being honest and uh some of the more

1183
01:14:38,055 --> 01:14:43,835
hardcore guys I know are not thinking you know like so like you know I know some people who are

1184
01:14:43,835 --> 01:14:49,935
really you know up there OGs big whales and they're not thinking that but it's the guys in

1185
01:14:49,935 --> 01:14:54,255
the middle range who are thinking that it's like the eight figure guys not the nine or ten figure

1186
01:14:54,255 --> 01:15:00,935
guys and I've never seen that before and I think there's just a lot of like fatigue like hodler

1187
01:15:00,935 --> 01:15:07,875
fatigue. And I get it because this year has been just a slog. It's just been really shitty. But

1188
01:15:07,875 --> 01:15:14,315
again, like F like with FTX, like every it's there's magic. There's this magical thing that

1189
01:15:14,315 --> 01:15:19,035
happens when the, you know, the ball drops in New York and there's a new year and it sort of

1190
01:15:19,035 --> 01:15:22,235
etch a sketches the previous year from your memory. And it's like, boom, we're on to 26.

1191
01:15:22,595 --> 01:15:28,335
And so with that in mind, I don't know, man, I just have this instinct where I kind of want to

1192
01:15:28,335 --> 01:15:34,695
fade everybody and just say that 26 is going to be bullish as fuck but i said that last year and

1193
01:15:34,695 --> 01:15:40,995
the year before so i might as well just stay consistent and be like i'm bullish i'm always

1194
01:15:40,995 --> 01:15:45,435
bullish i'm a permable if you ask me what's going on that's what you're going to get from me so you

1195
01:15:45,435 --> 01:15:50,615
know i think the sentiments make sense to me like when ftx collapsed like i think there's two things

1196
01:15:50,615 --> 01:15:55,535
that play into that it's one that you're thinking well thank fuck i wasn't on ftx i didn't have any

1197
01:15:55,535 --> 01:16:01,355
these shit coins but then also i do think you have that sense of everyone's wrong and we're right and

1198
01:16:01,355 --> 01:16:05,395
we're going to be proven right and like you kind of just dig in at that point whereas this year

1199
01:16:05,395 --> 01:16:10,995
it's just been boring nothing's really happened with the price like it's gone up from the start

1200
01:16:10,995 --> 01:16:15,975
of last year sorry the start of this year to the absolute peak is like 25 grand it's like that's

1201
01:16:15,975 --> 01:16:21,395
not a very exciting year in bitcoin considering the starting point look i would say gun to my head

1202
01:16:21,395 --> 01:16:22,295
I agree with HODL.

1203
01:16:23,015 --> 01:16:25,235
My family's all in Bitcoin.

1204
01:16:25,495 --> 01:16:27,775
If I wasn't bullish for next year,

1205
01:16:28,455 --> 01:16:30,215
if I thought we were entering

1206
01:16:30,215 --> 01:16:32,115
a two-year bear market or whatever,

1207
01:16:32,875 --> 01:16:34,215
I would downsize significantly.

1208
01:16:34,375 --> 01:16:35,135
I will also say, though,

1209
01:16:35,155 --> 01:16:38,135
I've never successfully done that ever.

1210
01:16:38,755 --> 01:16:40,335
So I'm right there with HODL

1211
01:16:40,335 --> 01:16:41,495
that I'm just always bullish.

1212
01:16:41,875 --> 01:16:43,175
I think this year,

1213
01:16:43,695 --> 01:16:44,375
with sentiment,

1214
01:16:44,595 --> 01:16:45,555
it's really interesting.

1215
01:16:46,555 --> 01:16:48,475
I've been thinking about this, too,

1216
01:16:48,535 --> 01:16:49,755
because it does feel that way,

1217
01:16:49,835 --> 01:16:51,275
which is crazy, by the way,

1218
01:16:51,275 --> 01:16:53,435
because we are fucking right.

1219
01:16:54,075 --> 01:16:55,255
Bitcoin's $88,000.

1220
01:16:55,975 --> 01:16:56,955
Let's be clear here.

1221
01:16:57,675 --> 01:16:59,195
And we've been very loud about it

1222
01:16:59,195 --> 01:17:00,615
for a long fucking time.

1223
01:17:02,235 --> 01:17:03,615
I've been loud about Bitcoin

1224
01:17:03,615 --> 01:17:06,355
since $1,000 or something,

1225
01:17:06,495 --> 01:17:07,075
like $900.

1226
01:17:07,595 --> 01:17:09,515
It's a fucking insane run that we're on.

1227
01:17:12,015 --> 01:17:14,095
Is one, gold.

1228
01:17:15,315 --> 01:17:18,495
Gold ripping really kicks a lot of us in the nuts.

1229
01:17:18,695 --> 01:17:19,975
It kicks me in the fucking nuts.

1230
01:17:19,975 --> 01:17:22,015
I mean, what Hodel was saying is like,

1231
01:17:22,075 --> 01:17:24,775
like shift being happy on Twitter and stuff

1232
01:17:24,775 --> 01:17:26,795
while we're in this doldrum,

1233
01:17:27,155 --> 01:17:28,075
it really sucks.

1234
01:17:28,195 --> 01:17:29,195
And silver, right?

1235
01:17:29,255 --> 01:17:31,035
Like is Bitcoin silver to silver to silver?

1236
01:17:31,275 --> 01:17:32,075
Like that sucks.

1237
01:17:32,215 --> 01:17:33,515
Like what the fuck is that?

1238
01:17:34,335 --> 01:17:35,515
So I think that hurts.

1239
01:17:35,655 --> 01:17:37,095
I think the second piece is,

1240
01:17:38,595 --> 01:17:40,155
you know, after 2017,

1241
01:17:41,255 --> 01:17:43,835
so like, so Ethereum was born

1242
01:17:43,835 --> 01:17:45,795
in I think like 2014, 2015.

1243
01:17:47,235 --> 01:17:49,275
2017 was the big Ethereum run.

1244
01:17:49,975 --> 01:17:53,495
And there was all the ICOs and a lot of us thought we were crazy.

1245
01:17:53,715 --> 01:18:00,815
We were sidelined and people were buying $100 million penthouses in Toronto and shit with their Ethereum gains.

1246
01:18:01,575 --> 01:18:02,815
And then we were right.

1247
01:18:03,075 --> 01:18:05,055
Everyone got wrecked and we were right about that.

1248
01:18:05,055 --> 01:18:10,815
And a beautiful Bitcoin-only, Bitcoin maximalist culture got born in 2017-ish.

1249
01:18:11,035 --> 01:18:11,895
After 2017.

1250
01:18:12,115 --> 01:18:14,255
After Bcash, after Ethereum ICOs.

1251
01:18:15,135 --> 01:18:16,335
We had a good run.

1252
01:18:16,735 --> 01:18:18,615
There was a very strong community there.

1253
01:18:18,715 --> 01:18:19,235
It was global.

1254
01:18:19,975 --> 01:18:21,775
We got rich together and we got poor together.

1255
01:18:23,435 --> 01:18:26,035
Treasury companies changed that whole ballgame.

1256
01:18:27,115 --> 01:18:31,135
Different people are getting rich and different people are getting poor at different times with different bags.

1257
01:18:31,895 --> 01:18:35,495
And you just don't have the camaraderie of getting rich and poor together.

1258
01:18:35,975 --> 01:18:41,975
To me, that was the final nail in the coffin of the good times of the Bitcoin-only culture.

1259
01:18:42,495 --> 01:18:44,595
It's just over. We don't have that anymore.

1260
01:18:44,975 --> 01:18:47,515
It was going to end anyway, I think.

1261
01:18:47,515 --> 01:18:51,755
You know, like everyone says you don't know the good old days until it's behind you.

1262
01:18:52,995 --> 01:18:54,655
But that was the nail in the coffin.

1263
01:18:54,755 --> 01:19:04,815
The nail in the coffin was people going leverage long on a stock that was already leveraged long on Bitcoin and everyone doing it to different stocks.

1264
01:19:05,075 --> 01:19:07,075
And this is not something that was only retail.

1265
01:19:07,495 --> 01:19:08,915
Like people did it in size.

1266
01:19:09,095 --> 01:19:14,075
Like we saw OGs come in in size and seed a lot of these treasury companies.

1267
01:19:14,395 --> 01:19:15,635
They got wrecked.

1268
01:19:15,635 --> 01:19:19,455
And they're all in different bags, right?

1269
01:19:19,495 --> 01:19:20,535
Everyone's got different bags.

1270
01:19:21,015 --> 01:19:22,975
And that's, I think, what we're feeling right now.

1271
01:19:23,115 --> 01:19:24,135
I think that's 100% right.

1272
01:19:24,215 --> 01:19:26,855
I've not really heard it summed up like that, but I totally agree with that.

1273
01:19:27,795 --> 01:19:28,795
I'll put my neck on the line.

1274
01:19:28,855 --> 01:19:30,875
I think 2026 is going to be like turbo bullish.

1275
01:19:31,235 --> 01:19:34,575
I think sentiment being shot right now is like a good sign.

1276
01:19:34,895 --> 01:19:37,715
I think Trump's going to juice the fuck out of markets going into midterms.

1277
01:19:38,115 --> 01:19:42,055
I think like government picking winners, like it's picked AI and data centers.

1278
01:19:42,055 --> 01:19:44,935
I think Bitcoin could potentially be one of those winners that the government picks.

1279
01:19:44,935 --> 01:19:47,555
Do you think we're going to hit an all-time high in gold terms?

1280
01:19:48,875 --> 01:19:49,995
I don't know what that is.

1281
01:19:50,095 --> 01:19:51,195
I don't know what that would pass at.

1282
01:19:51,315 --> 01:19:52,095
That's all that matters.

1283
01:19:52,115 --> 01:19:53,035
Do you know what that would be?

1284
01:19:54,835 --> 01:19:56,735
It's much higher than we're at right now.

1285
01:19:56,815 --> 01:19:57,675
Yeah, it's a lot higher.

1286
01:19:58,555 --> 01:20:01,895
I don't know, but I think we'll get significant all-time highs next year.

1287
01:20:02,475 --> 01:20:05,455
I saw someone posted, and I did not verify it,

1288
01:20:05,875 --> 01:20:07,695
but it sounds right and it kicked me in the nuts,

1289
01:20:08,135 --> 01:20:12,695
that gold added 21 million Bitcoin in market cap in the last five days.

1290
01:20:12,695 --> 01:20:13,895
in five days.

1291
01:20:14,795 --> 01:20:15,775
That's a big goal.

1292
01:20:16,575 --> 01:20:18,715
The full Bitcoin market cap.

1293
01:20:18,815 --> 01:20:20,315
Yeah, I don't know if we'll get to like new

1294
01:20:20,315 --> 01:20:22,815
all-time highs versus gold, but I think it's going to be a good year.

1295
01:20:23,115 --> 01:20:24,615
But you're going to have to come up with a new meme huddle.

1296
01:20:26,095 --> 01:20:26,755
It's kind of bad

1297
01:20:26,755 --> 01:20:28,715
that we're all bullish, isn't it? Should I go the opposite

1298
01:20:28,715 --> 01:20:30,935
direction? I'm bearish as fuck.

1299
01:20:31,195 --> 01:20:32,115
This is the most bearish.

1300
01:20:32,115 --> 01:20:34,535
I shot treasury codes and now I'm eating ramen.

1301
01:20:36,095 --> 01:20:37,255
I'm dying over here.

1302
01:20:37,255 --> 01:20:38,815
You need this year to be bullish.

1303
01:20:38,815 --> 01:20:40,875
This is probably my most bearish, what Bitcoin did in like

1304
01:20:40,875 --> 01:20:49,175
six years if this felt like a bit of a therapy session um all right guys anything else you want

1305
01:20:49,175 --> 01:20:56,975
to talk on before we wrap up let me think oh yeah okay hodling gets harder as you go there's a false

1306
01:20:56,975 --> 01:21:02,615
perception that hodling gets easier as you go bullshit it gets harder it gets harder every time

1307
01:21:02,615 --> 01:21:07,435
and the reason why is because you know i've said this the the most important meme in bitcoin is the

1308
01:21:07,435 --> 01:21:09,235
the one with the guy with the shotgun in his mouth.

1309
01:21:09,375 --> 01:21:12,255
And it's like, Bitcoin hits 1,000 and he's like, yes.

1310
01:21:12,375 --> 01:21:14,275
And then it's like, Bitcoin drops to 10,000.

1311
01:21:14,415 --> 01:21:15,515
It's like, he's worried.

1312
01:21:15,635 --> 01:21:18,295
And then it's like, Bitcoin plummets to just 100,000.

1313
01:21:18,415 --> 01:21:21,815
He has a shotgun in his mouth, ready to blow his brains out.

1314
01:21:22,235 --> 01:21:23,895
That is the experience of hodling.

1315
01:21:24,555 --> 01:21:26,855
And the reason why it gets harder as you go

1316
01:21:26,855 --> 01:21:28,555
is because in the beginning,

1317
01:21:28,695 --> 01:21:31,055
you're actually not losing that much money,

1318
01:21:31,475 --> 01:21:33,695
you know, in nominal terms.

1319
01:21:34,235 --> 01:21:36,635
But later on, you're losing a lot.

1320
01:21:36,635 --> 01:21:42,635
Because like if you bought Bitcoin at $200, well, nowadays the Bitcoin price fluctuates $200 like fuck every single.

1321
01:21:42,687 --> 01:22:11,867
Right. So like you're losing your entire initial investment or gaining your entire initial investment every second. And that will happen for people at $88,000. It doesn't sound like it will, but it will because when Bitcoin's it, you know, whatever, 2.6 million versus 2.7 million, are you going to notice? Like not really. And it's going to do that all day intraday. And so the thing is, you're going to quit your job. You're going to become a Bitcoin rich person. You're going to retire. And then you're going to lose, you know, these large sums of money.

1322
01:22:11,867 --> 01:22:19,507
every day. And what you're actually losing is like peace of mind, time with your family,

1323
01:22:19,987 --> 01:22:24,807
you know, experiences that you could have, things you could do. And so that's the reason why it feels

1324
01:22:24,807 --> 01:22:30,827
bad emotionally, because you're giving up pieces of your life for what? At some point, you actually

1325
01:22:30,827 --> 01:22:36,687
have enough money to live a good life, the kind of life that other people envy in perpetuity forever.

1326
01:22:36,827 --> 01:22:40,887
You have what they call generational wealth, right? But there are people in Bitcoin who have

1327
01:22:40,887 --> 01:22:46,547
generational wealth who stick through for longer. And you have to have a bigger why as to what are

1328
01:22:46,547 --> 01:22:53,967
you sticking around here for. And to me, my why is so that we can attempt, I don't know if we're

1329
01:22:53,967 --> 01:22:58,867
going to be able to do it, but attempt to create a better world when all is said and done, a world

1330
01:22:58,867 --> 01:23:04,627
with more freedom. And that only happens once the number's gone up a lot. We get a seat at the table

1331
01:23:04,627 --> 01:23:09,687
and we allow Bitcoin to sort of do its thing from a legal perspective. And that bet will take my

1332
01:23:09,687 --> 01:23:15,367
entire life. And so I'm here for that bet. And in the meantime, I have to kind of live a little more,

1333
01:23:15,367 --> 01:23:23,847
you know, monk like from time to time and be like, you have less attachment to what comes and goes

1334
01:23:23,847 --> 01:23:29,167
like, you know, I'm saying like, I have less attachment to things and experiences and whatever,

1335
01:23:29,167 --> 01:23:40,940
and just focus on the small things and be great grateful Like I think the times like this in Bitcoin again this sounds like we at the bottom of a bear market the way I speaking Yeah I know Times like this in Bitcoin are time

1336
01:23:41,200 --> 01:23:43,300
or it's time for gratitude and sort of look around

1337
01:23:43,300 --> 01:23:45,440
and take stock of what you have and the relationships you have

1338
01:23:45,440 --> 01:23:46,540
and what's important to you

1339
01:23:46,540 --> 01:23:49,160
and spend time with people you love, etc.

1340
01:23:49,820 --> 01:23:51,760
Again, it really sounds like we're at the bottom of a bear market

1341
01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:53,700
when I'm speaking this way,

1342
01:23:53,760 --> 01:23:55,720
but that's how it emotionally feels.

1343
01:23:55,720 --> 01:23:57,700
So I'm just going to say it like it is.

1344
01:23:57,700 --> 01:24:03,040
Do you think that's why we saw this like 80k Bitcoin sell from that OG because hodling

1345
01:24:03,040 --> 01:24:03,780
got too hard for him?

1346
01:24:04,080 --> 01:24:05,520
Did he did you think he lost his why?

1347
01:24:06,840 --> 01:24:08,440
Oh, oh, this is another thing.

1348
01:24:08,560 --> 01:24:13,180
I don't think people know about this, but a lot of OGs moved to Puerto Rico in 2015.

1349
01:24:13,380 --> 01:24:16,840
And then those coins got seasoned this year and they didn't have to pay any cap gains

1350
01:24:16,840 --> 01:24:17,140
on it.

1351
01:24:17,180 --> 01:24:18,260
So they fucking divested.

1352
01:24:18,600 --> 01:24:19,620
Like that's part of what happened.

1353
01:24:20,060 --> 01:24:20,460
Interesting.

1354
01:24:20,800 --> 01:24:21,080
Yeah.

1355
01:24:21,660 --> 01:24:26,200
If you lived in Puerto Rico for 10 years, your cost basis effectively went down to zero

1356
01:24:26,200 --> 01:24:27,660
and you didn't have to pay cap gains on it.

1357
01:24:27,700 --> 01:24:31,400
or you got to reset your cost basis at the market buy or the market sell.

1358
01:24:32,040 --> 01:24:35,280
So I think some of that was these OGs.

1359
01:24:35,400 --> 01:24:37,980
And I don't want to dox anybody or anything,

1360
01:24:38,060 --> 01:24:40,400
but like I've heard some of these large sales were boating accidents

1361
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:42,160
and that the OGs still have a shitload of coins,

1362
01:24:42,200 --> 01:24:45,520
but they wanted a way to like be defensible and say like,

1363
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:48,180
no, this is the reason I'm rich or I'm a billionaire

1364
01:24:48,180 --> 01:24:49,900
is because I sold all my Bitcoin.

1365
01:24:50,140 --> 01:24:52,580
But they still have Bitcoin because how could they not

1366
01:24:52,580 --> 01:24:54,080
if they believed in it for this long?

1367
01:24:54,520 --> 01:24:56,080
So it's crazy to think about,

1368
01:24:56,080 --> 01:24:59,620
but like the people with 80,000 coins might have 200,000 coins.

1369
01:25:00,200 --> 01:25:02,440
I'd never heard that Puerto Rico take.

1370
01:25:02,520 --> 01:25:02,780
There you go.

1371
01:25:02,820 --> 01:25:04,080
Some alphas close out the show.

1372
01:25:04,400 --> 01:25:05,820
Odell, anything before we close out?

1373
01:25:06,980 --> 01:25:09,760
I mean, I will say those whales that sold above 100K

1374
01:25:09,760 --> 01:25:10,700
was a pretty good trade.

1375
01:25:11,160 --> 01:25:15,420
Even if they paid cap gains, they're in the black right now.

1376
01:25:20,200 --> 01:25:32,972
And the other piece here by the way on the on the first of all we have that every every cycle Just the numbers are bigger this year because everything gets bigger as time goes on

1377
01:25:33,692 --> 01:25:35,092
And it's been a narrative forever,

1378
01:25:35,292 --> 01:25:37,152
like, oh, the original people are selling out.

1379
01:25:37,352 --> 01:25:38,652
And that's why it's always so hilarious

1380
01:25:38,652 --> 01:25:41,032
when people say you got lucky holding long-term

1381
01:25:41,032 --> 01:25:43,132
because most people don't.

1382
01:25:43,172 --> 01:25:44,032
It's the hardest path.

1383
01:25:44,112 --> 01:25:45,192
It's always the hardest path.

1384
01:25:45,852 --> 01:25:47,572
But I think another piece here is like, look,

1385
01:25:48,932 --> 01:25:50,572
like no matter how you cut it,

1386
01:25:50,572 --> 01:25:55,232
Trump and his family and his friends and whatnot

1387
01:25:55,232 --> 01:25:58,072
grifted like crazy on top of Bitcoin and crypto.

1388
01:25:59,072 --> 01:26:02,672
I mean, Trump coin, that was earlier.

1389
01:26:02,852 --> 01:26:03,912
If we're going to do a year in review,

1390
01:26:04,112 --> 01:26:06,872
this all started with Trump coin and they had Melania coin.

1391
01:26:08,052 --> 01:26:10,712
And I think it left a really sour taste in people's mouth.

1392
01:26:11,472 --> 01:26:15,832
And so if Vance doesn't win the next election,

1393
01:26:16,672 --> 01:26:19,092
there could be a reckoning.

1394
01:26:19,092 --> 01:26:27,392
And I could see why large holders would want to be, as Hodel said, in a defensible position going into that potential outcome.

1395
01:26:28,652 --> 01:26:31,552
There could be a whipsaw reaction.

1396
01:26:31,692 --> 01:26:35,332
That's what we see happen all the time in politics, but particularly in modern politics.

1397
01:26:35,752 --> 01:26:38,512
It just feels like we're whipsawing back and forth over and over again.

1398
01:26:39,832 --> 01:26:43,852
But look, my analysis has always been very consistent.

1399
01:26:44,012 --> 01:26:45,632
I think this is a long-term game.

1400
01:26:45,712 --> 01:26:46,352
This is a grind.

1401
01:26:46,352 --> 01:26:59,432
I think the best path and the hardest path is to stay humble and stack sats and not chase easy wins that you think are easy that you're just going to lose all your money on, which is usually some kind of leverage wrapped up in something else that you don't think is leverage.

1402
01:26:59,532 --> 01:27:01,912
You think it's just smart financial planning or something like that.

1403
01:27:02,192 --> 01:27:09,332
On the positive side, I think this has been a very good year in terms of fundamental Bitcoin value.

1404
01:27:10,292 --> 01:27:13,292
It's easier than ever to use Bitcoin in a freedom-oriented way.

1405
01:27:13,292 --> 01:27:14,412
it's easier

1406
01:27:14,412 --> 01:27:27,485
you have way more tools available to you the businesses in the space are starting to really become real businesses We seeing some juggernauts being born basically

1407
01:27:29,425 --> 01:27:35,325
The one that I'm constantly in the trenches with is Strike,

1408
01:27:35,325 --> 01:27:40,485
and it's just been insane watching that company go from a small startup

1409
01:27:40,485 --> 01:27:43,725
to what I expect to be a fintech juggernaut.

1410
01:27:44,565 --> 01:27:50,365
you know, mentioned in the same circles as Robinhood and the big banks and whatnot.

1411
01:27:51,605 --> 01:27:56,045
But look, and the development side, I think development side strong, we're getting more

1412
01:27:56,045 --> 01:28:02,325
Bitcoin developers on the open source side. I think BPI has been very strong. Best policy

1413
01:28:02,325 --> 01:28:07,565
we've had in America on Bitcoin since we started. So there's a lot of reasons to be positive.

1414
01:28:07,705 --> 01:28:09,865
Basically everything except the price.

1415
01:28:09,865 --> 01:28:10,605
price

1416
01:28:10,605 --> 01:28:11,665
which is good

1417
01:28:11,665 --> 01:28:12,705
I think is good

1418
01:28:12,705 --> 01:28:13,665
even though you know

1419
01:28:13,665 --> 01:28:14,505
the price is the most

1420
01:28:14,505 --> 01:28:15,185
important metric

1421
01:28:15,185 --> 01:28:16,485
so I'm optimistic

1422
01:28:16,485 --> 01:28:17,425
I'm cautiously optimistic

1423
01:28:17,425 --> 01:28:18,145
people should stay

1424
01:28:18,145 --> 01:28:18,945
on stack stats

1425
01:28:18,945 --> 01:28:19,525
and

1426
01:28:19,525 --> 01:28:21,665
don't take your foot

1427
01:28:21,665 --> 01:28:22,125
off the gas

1428
01:28:22,125 --> 01:28:24,245
let's go

1429
01:28:24,245 --> 01:28:25,305
our year in the view

1430
01:28:25,305 --> 01:28:25,965
wrapped

1431
01:28:25,965 --> 01:28:27,745
we'll definitely do this

1432
01:28:27,745 --> 01:28:28,585
I mean I'll speak to you

1433
01:28:28,585 --> 01:28:29,185
both before then

1434
01:28:29,185 --> 01:28:29,665
but we'll definitely

1435
01:28:29,665 --> 01:28:30,305
do this next year

1436
01:28:30,305 --> 01:28:31,065
and I would take

1437
01:28:31,065 --> 01:28:31,785
a sizable bet

1438
01:28:31,785 --> 01:28:32,325
that will be higher

1439
01:28:32,325 --> 01:28:33,045
than 88k

1440
01:28:33,045 --> 01:28:35,065
it's bad

1441
01:28:35,065 --> 01:28:36,925
I probably

1442
01:28:36,925 --> 01:28:37,585
I wouldn't take

1443
01:28:37,585 --> 01:28:38,545
the other side of that bet

1444
01:28:38,545 --> 01:28:39,845
someone's got to fade it

1445
01:28:39,845 --> 01:28:40,645
Let's fucking go.

1446
01:28:41,125 --> 01:28:41,645
Go on.

1447
01:28:41,725 --> 01:28:42,525
You've got to fade it.

1448
01:28:42,625 --> 01:28:42,785
Hold on.

1449
01:28:43,385 --> 01:28:43,925
I can't.

1450
01:28:43,945 --> 01:28:45,525
I'm the most bullish person here, man.

1451
01:28:47,425 --> 01:28:47,945
All right.

1452
01:28:47,985 --> 01:28:48,905
Well, we're all fucking bullish.

1453
01:28:49,045 --> 01:28:49,565
And let's go.

1454
01:28:50,305 --> 01:28:51,045
Thank you, guys.

1455
01:28:51,225 --> 01:28:51,945
I'll speak to you both soon.

1456
01:28:52,305 --> 01:28:52,545
Cheers.

1457
01:29:09,845 --> 01:29:39,825
Thank you.