Statistically, right now, according to a quantile regression, we are basically at the bottom.
But all it takes is another boom to pull the trend back up with pretty high confidence.
We're going to be at 550, maybe even higher.
The world is moving fast.
Be prepared for, say, central banks printing money, but Bitcoin doing nothing.
Or be prepared for central banks printing money and Bitcoin also going gangbusters.
and Bitcoin is going to be growing on a sustainable curve.
Global money is going to be growing on an unsustainable curve
with a lot of interest.
Those things are going to merge.
I think the place to start, Matthew, is on the power law.
Has this drop in Bitcoin price affected that?
Is it still accurate?
Are we on?
We're on, man.
We're on.
All right.
Yes.
I don't want to throw off your first question,
because I actually want to start on money supply
rather than power law.
I have charts ready.
Oh, let's just start again then.
And we will.
No, no, no, no, no.
It's good.
It's a good...
We're going to do two things today,
which I think are very important.
As we were joking pre-show,
it's not like there's anything going on in the world.
So people need to back up,
take a deep breath,
touch grass,
play with your kids.
There are two things with Bitcoin
that can really ground you,
and I've actually been following them both
since 2018.
One is the power law.
The other is the base money supply.
Bitcoin is related to both.
And the power law is something that what I plan to show you a little bit later, we can get into it, is when you think about all these technical charts, you know, straight lines, ABC, correction, Elliott Wave, all this stuff.
This is always done in the context of an asset that moves exponentially.
When I say exponentially, it means it just moves compoundingly, constantly, just like anything you think of.
If you need a 10% return in your investment or bond yields 5%, inflation is 7%, you're losing money, whatever.
These are sort of Bayesian calculations that everybody does every day, even though they don't know it.
This is a, that's what exponential growth is.
And you sort of think in probabilities, okay, am I going to be able to cover that or not?
The thing is, with Bitcoin, it's totally different.
is totally different.
And so these sort of ABC corrections,
Elliott waves, straight lines
on a log linear chart, they don't work.
And the reason is Bitcoin grows like a network.
All right, so we're starting out a little bit power,
but I want to get back to money supply.
So very simple definition of power law.
It's like an 80-20 rule.
So if you think about something like Facebook,
Amazon, Apple,
this is a pure definition of a power law
Those are huge nodes in the system, right?
They're centralized, controlled nodes,
and they have many connections, but there's a few of them.
Okay, so there's a few gigantic nodes
with an enormous amount of connections.
Now, on the other end of that curve,
or the other end of that spectrum, if you can just imagine,
the internet has tons of websites, portals, servers,
people have private servers, whatever.
There are massive amounts of small nodes, right,
with few connections.
So many, many small nodes, few connections, few large nodes, many connections.
That is a power law.
And it's unique in that if you apply this concept to the growth of a financial asset, it never works.
It just never works.
The primary reason for that, we don't have to get too much into the math, is it's just compound interest.
It's the way debt works.
And usually you get this unstable result.
You get the boom-bust cycle.
It's really not a conspiracy.
It's just how the math works.
So I'll try to show you a little bit of that as well.
It's just a boom-bust cycle.
With the power law, what Bitcoin does,
and it is 96% R-squared.
It's a very good relationship.
We'll get to it.
I'll show you the charts.
There is the word, there's a key word that you can think of,
and the word is proportional.
So Bitcoin grows proportionately to itself over time,
unlike exponential growth, which is constant.
And then you can also tag on something that usually happens
with constant growth is it can be volatile
when it gets really big, often ends in collapse or restructuring.
Every company grows that way.
It grows constantly.
But with Bitcoin, it actually grows proportional to itself over time.
So a very simple, simple example of this, and this is the number.
This is what the power law tells us,
is that for every 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin,
in the life of Bitcoin, the price will double.
that is the power law of Bitcoin.
So that is unlike, say, a stock that gets you 10%,
or let's say the rule of 72, it's actually 7.2%.
So for every, a stock that is growing 10% per year,
it will double every 7.2 years.
That's the rule of 72.
In its finest form, it works best around the 10% compound growth rate.
It's a constant growth rate.
It doesn't matter. 7.2 years later, if it's still growing at 10%, it will take another 7.2 years to double.
That's what constant growth is.
But with a power law with Bitcoin, it will actually, the doubling time slows down the larger the network, or you can even use this with organisms as well, with sort of caloric intake.
There are some nice power law charts people can see online about that.
Different organisms grow this way.
But the bottom line is, so Bitcoin, and we can represent this with hash rate, addresses price.
For every 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin, the price doubles.
So Bitcoin right now is over 6,000 days old.
I don't know exactly.
The numbers even itself getting a little stale, maybe 6,400, something like that.
So every 750 days or so, my math is a little bit off, but roughly 13% of that.
750 days, i.e. two years, two years, Bitcoin's price doubles. That's the power of Bitcoin. That's
what it is showing right now. But that percentage will always stay the same. The proportion stays
the same, but the time itself, the raw number of days, the longer Bitcoin is around, kind of like
think of a Lindy effect, but it's not exactly the Lindy effect definition. The longer Bitcoin is
around, all right, the longer it will take to double. And so that is literally the measurement.
People like to think in terms of doubling time, but Bitcoin doesn't work like the MAG7 or the
stock market or bond yields. It just does not work that way. So bottom line is, if you think
about this one number, I know it's kind of hard to calculate, but it's 13% and just roughly kind
of take it to 10%, whatever. Think about how many days Bitcoin's been around, take a little bit more
than 10% of that, that's the days left for Bitcoin from where it is right now, where the power law is
right now for the power law to double. And it doesn't mean it's going to hit that right on the
mark, right? I mean, you can do this at any point on the curve, but that's what the curve itself says.
And it's very unique. And the bottom line, like the net net of all that sort of hashing out of
the power law, which I didn't plan on going so deep into this point, but it's good, I think,
is that it's actually quite stable.
It's proportional.
It's how networks grow.
And it's going to surprise a lot of people
because the financial world still doesn't think that way.
It doesn't understand it.
The financial world thinks in compound growth rates,
regular interest rates,
like, okay, I need to get a 10% return, this and that.
And by the way, I guess I didn't say this number.
Right now, that doubling every two years
translates into a 40% CAGR, a 40% compound undergrowth. So that's an enormous return.
It's enormous for anybody to have. It's bigger than the MAG-7, which I can show you in a second
here. But that number is going to get smaller. It's going to get smaller. So prepare yourself
for that. But regardless, it's a unique moment in time because to my knowledge, and I've studied,
you know, a lot of banking, monetary history, looked at just a lot of, you know, interesting
facets of free banking and stuff. To my knowledge, there's not an asset that has actually grown this
way over time. It's a very, growing in power as opposed to growing in geometric or growing
in exponential is a very stable. It's a stable sort of growth rate. Cities also grow in power,
by the way. So just another quick side example. You know, the reason like cities don't explode
into the sun with skyscrapers going, you know, million miles high, like the sci-fi movies,
right, into space or whatever. The reason they're not doing that is because you don't need all the
infrastructure in a city that you would need for a regular person, like living out in the countryside.
So you don't need as many parking spaces in the city for as many people as there are there. You
have public transport, you have, you know, the distribution of water and electricity is completely
different in a city than it is out to, you know, some one farmer living in the countryside. So you
had this interesting effect. And the bottom line is with city growth is, yes, it is true that back
in the old days, like hundreds of years ago, when I say the old days, or even in ancient times,
cities actually grew pretty fast at the beginning, just like Bitcoin. They grew very, very fast.
You know, when Paris was a greenfield or London was a greenfield, it's growing very, very fast.
the Romans colonized London, it's growing faster. But then over time, that growth slows.
And so if you had actually, and there have been charts of this, like look up
long-term growth of London or Paris, of any city, and you will see this power curve. You will see a
very fast growth at the beginning, and then a more sustainable, gradual, sort of slower rate of
growth as it goes forward. So that's what Bitcoin does. Bitcoin grows like that.
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so how far below what power law dictates as being the sort of fair price are we right now because
um like bitcoin certainly feels very good value right now and and is there ever a time when you
would say okay the power law is wrong is broken uh no so let's let's get on let's get on to the
charts here all right so here is the power law of bitcoin this is one of the things that i used to
show a lot was this the how the price looks over under the curve at any given time.
A couple things to point out. All right. First of all, go down here. See, it's a 96.1% R squared.
All right. So that means that this black line itself, the price moves around this black line,
96.1% better with less variance than would move around the average, which should be obvious
because it's a nonlinear growth. Notice, though, this is a log linear chart. Okay. So people in
financially be familiar with that, except the fact is, if you put a log linear chart on any
financial asset, it's going to turn into a straight line, typically. Here, you have this sort of
pretty, it looks pretty gradual, but you know, you can say it's a little bit faster at the beginning,
and then you can see as we move into the future, it sort of tapers out. Now, a couple things to
think about, and I'll show you, I'm going to show you two different types of regressions here,
and this is, as well, people are going to get access, a lot of people ask me about these charts,
I've been working hard to give people access to this.
So it's coming in the next month or two.
But finally, yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's going to be good.
It's going to be really good.
Cloud Code is actually taking me to a different level here.
It's you talk about the SaaSpocalypse and stuff.
I mean, some of the stuff that I can do now, again, with pretty, pretty much all free and
open data is like, in my opinion, miles better than you could get from like paying $2,000
a month on Bloomberg or whatever.
So it's pretty wild.
But in any event, notice we're pretty far under the curve right now.
But notice these other bands, okay?
So this is, I show this as a sort of just a general guide,
but actually this analysis is not great.
I'm talking about these bands where what I'm doing basically is I'm analyzing,
okay, what percentile or what percentage of the time would Bitcoin as a multiple be over or under the curve?
And so if you just look back,
you see that these bands are very close at the beginning,
but then they expand, right?
So what's happening there is as more data comes in,
we can see, you know,
if there are any extreme moves over or under the trend line.
And of course, the trend line at the time,
I'll just take some of these bands off just to show you.
The trend line at the time was not this nice, smooth black line.
It was actually this gray line.
All right, so it's just sort of,
A little bit of some bugs there, but you can see that it's generally growing pretty fast,
but this black line sort of shows how it's sort of settled down over time.
Okay, but then we want to see, okay, so where are we now,
and how would that compare to the past?
Well, we can do this thing where look in the tooltip there.
You see how already by 2011, the Q100 or the 100th percentile, you see it's, right, these are very small Bitcoin prices, right?
$7 Bitcoin.
But already there, relative to the power curve, you see 7.7x on the 100th percentile.
You see that?
And on the zeroth percentile, you see 0.4x, which is actually 0.001.
basically as low as you can get below the trend line,
you see 0.4x.
So what that's saying is already in 2011,
getting 60% below trend or 7.7x above trend
is as good as it gets.
And actually, I need to go a little bit further out.
It's really 2012, say.
Now the 0.0 is 0.1x.
So a 90% discount from the power curve
or a 7.7x premium.
Now, as we go forward,
just look at those two bands.
Let me even take this out.
I'm talking about the extreme bands.
You see how they don't change?
7.7x, 0.1x.
Doesn't matter.
The price is happening.
Okay, so that's pretty interesting,
first of all.
And it shows that
you can even see with the 2017 boom,
the 2021 boom,
there's really no chance on log scale
you could see that we were going to hit those numbers.
All right, if you look back,
if you did this analysis.
In 2017, it got relatively close.
It got close.
You're right.
But 2021 was not relatively close.
Okay.
So you see 20,
and you got to find other bands to get close.
So they did get above the 90th on both ones,
which is about 2X.
And by the way,
I was having fun with my,
you know,
so I'm streaming this stuff every day.
And I was,
I was enjoying theorizing back in like June of last year
that, you know,
okay, so we're going to,
we're going to be counting the days that we're going to be above the 90th percentile,
which is 2x the trend.
Like, this is really great.
We're gearing up.
All right.
But what I did not, and what I say I'm pretty proud of, actually,
because I try to do not too much bombast in my predictions.
And as the summer was going into the fall,
and we were just hanging around the power trend,
and people were getting really bullish,
everybody's saying the four-year cycle is over.
This is a new world for Bitcoin,
but they didn't really quite describe the new world
other than there were a lot of ETFs buying Bitcoin, I noticed that we're starting to now go back under
the power curve and it's not looking very good. And so I said, look, it is a weird cycle. We haven't
boomed up to the 90th like we did in all prior cycles. We haven't even gotten close to the 100th,
let alone 2x the power trend. We haven't gotten 7x. And by the way, just to put numbers, by the way,
the power trend back last year at this time I'm talking about is about 100,000. So it was $100,000
and Bitcoin was around that.
We were just bouncing along the power trend all last year.
So I was saying, okay, this possible.
I think we can get up to the 90th.
It's going to be fun.
It's going to be an interesting fall.
Let's count the days, the four-year cycle.
I'm a simple guy.
Let's not fix what's not broken.
Here, it's coming, right?
And it didn come And yet all if you remember Dan I sure you talked to plenty of them A lot of the commentator says you know four cycle over Yeah four cycle over It a new
world. They didn't quite, a lot of these people who said the four-year cycle's over, by the way,
were not power trend followers. So they say, you know, it's a new world, a global adoption of
Bitcoin, this and this and that. And meanwhile, I'm watching it in October go under trend and
pretty steeply. And so I said specifically, and I'm not saying this is a huge win because I really
don't like I don't try to predict the future. But what I do want to show to your listeners and
viewers is we can look at the relative risk. I said is in like October, November, I said it a
lot. I said, I'm not going to say the four year cycles over until like February, January, February,
where we're all of a sudden at 160,000, right? Where we're way above the power trend to show me
that this is something different.
And lo and behold,
it's that fifth year,
or the first year of a new cycle,
if you want to end the cycle on the top.
We're in 2026 here,
and we're well below the power trend.
So in my opinion, actually,
the four-year cycle is completely intact,
hasn't broken.
I'm not saying it cannot not break,
but it's completely intact.
The funny thing there, though,
is I was one of the people that,
I kind of bought the narrative
that the four-year cycle might be over.
And loads of reasons,
one being just the dynamics of the market
definitely changed.
But if you zoom out a little bit,
you can also see that this cycle
did look different in the run-up to it.
I think the closest comparison
would be maybe that 2014 to 2016 period
where it's just like a slow grind.
There wasn't really any big runs up in price.
It did seem different, I think.
I agree with you.
And this is the other thing about Bitcoin, right?
It's like, well, there's so many nice memes.
I think everyone gets the price they deserve
is the best meme.
And Bitcoiners are going to really be enjoying that meme,
you know, five, 10 years from now.
But yeah, who said it was going to be easy, right?
Like 2021 was kind of confusing
because that first top,
which was really the real top,
was booming in,
and I have a few other indications
that show it was the real top was March of 2021.
You know, that was early, right?
The prior tops came in November, December.
and then we had the double top
and then we still went down.
Same with this time.
We had the ETFs approval in January 2024
and so all of a sudden we're back at the power curve
when actually that could have taken a long time,
like you said, in 2015, 2016
or, you know, again,
no cycle's completely identical, that's for sure.
Everybody needs to be clear on that.
But this is the beauty of the power curve actually
is it can ground you in what Bitcoin is actually doing
and you can completely, completely avoid the YouTube thumbnails that tell you that you better
watch this video or Bitcoin, you know, the world is going to end and Bitcoin's going to
100,000 before you buy it or 60,000 sell it. It's just absolute nonsense. And these people are,
they do not have a concept of what the power curve is actually saying Bitcoin's doing.
But can you believe in the power curve and the four-year cycle at the same time? Because the
power curve would say that cycles will become elongated all the time. Is that not right?
No. There are a few different theories on, if you want to say elongated, but what the power
curve will say is that the cycles will become dampened over time. Dampened. This is actually
the point that I'm getting to. They will not necessarily become elongated or shortened or
whatever, but the volatility will become less. And so that's actually what I'm trying to show
right here. Look at, all right, we've looked at this chart now for a while as we've talked through
it. It's very unlikely. Now, you have to think of statistics now. In all of Bitcoin's history,
all right, the huge moves above the trend at the time, getting to 6, 7, 8x, the power trend,
that happened all the way back in 2011. 2017 was close, like you said, and we did get above the 9,
the 90th, but not above the 100th. And again, the 90th is 2x, but not even close to 7x. 2021,
not even close to 7x. So I had it totally in mind that we were not going to get 6x, 7x last year
when people were making their crazy predictions and also saying the cycle's over. But I did think
possible because it happened in every prior cycle, we could have gotten to the 90th.
That didn't happen either. Okay. So let's reevaluate our priors. Let's just see where we are.
we're still on the four-year cycle it's totally intact i'll show you some more charts for the
four-year cycle but i want to i don't want to focus too much on the four-year right now
but look at so this is this is different than an exponential chart and i'll show you
like apple for example as a comparison but as we can see the price if you just sort of
see how it moves around these bands the price itself as we move up the curve is getting closer
and closer to the black line over time.
Yeah, it still has big moves.
We're in a big move down right now.
But it's getting closer and closer to the black line.
It's not getting further away.
It's not getting up to the 7, 8x.
It's not getting down to the 0.1x,
which will be $15,000 right now, right?
To get even to the 10th percentile of a multiple,
which is 0.3x, right?
That would be 40,000.
And the last time we would even have been close
to that multiple would have been the scam, bank, and fraud puking of 2022. And there,
the 10th was 13, 13, 14,000. We didn't get there either. All right. So you'd have to go all the way
back to 2015 to where we hit that multiple. So just look, just, you know, just marinate on that
chart now and look how the green line is not going farther away from the black line. It's getting
closer. It's having less variance, less volatility. And that's a good thing. That's reaffirming what
the power curve is actually showing, which is proportional stable growth. What do you got to
say to that? I mean, it's super interesting. And really, the most interesting thing looking at this
is that we're at like 60 something K right now. And it looks like there's not many times in the
past that it's been this low. So do you think we are hammering out of bottom sort of where we are
right now. I do. I do. Again, anything is possible. But there are two different ways to look at it.
Now I want to show you a different regression. So as you see in the title here, it says evolving
regression power. Okay. So what I mean with the evolving is just what I was talking about. Like,
let's find the max over under plot that figure out, you know, where that is relative to future
moves. And the point is, you can see, it's actually not great. It's not even that helpful,
other than just to say it's not going to get there.
And when I say not going to get there,
I'm speaking statistically.
It's extremely unlikely that the price
is going to go to 0.1x the trend, i.e. 15K right now.
And it's also extremely unlikely
the price is going to go 7.8x the trend,
i.e. a million right now at this moment.
So having said that, let's look at the other one.
Now this is a quantile regression straight up,
not evolving.
So here I can get these nice parallel lines.
What does that mean?
Right. So happening here, actually parallel was the wrong word, straight like these smooth lines and they're not parallel. But what they are having, what they are doing here is I'm taking each each each data point basically in the chart is analyzed relative to all the others.
and then you try to do your own sort of mini regression in that range.
Okay?
So what I'm saying is I'm not, the governor here is not like this one,
how far above or under the price am I?
Am I 7x, 8x?
No.
The governor is relative to all the other points,
can I just draw kind of different ranges of this black line?
The black line is the OLS or narrowly squares.
So like here, you see the black line is usually like,
it's not exactly in the middle.
It's actually close to two thirds.
The median is the Q50.
So this is, you'll see the difference here.
I'll zoom in.
They're a little bit different.
Okay.
So the OLS is 130.
The median is 120.
You see we're well below that.
But then as I draw all the other bands,
they have what's called a pseudo,
like a pseudo R squared to measure them.
The point is, none of this is, you know,
it's all statistics.
It's not gospel.
But we can actually get even tighter bands.
Notice how they're tighter, right, than this one.
With this one, the Q100, the Q0, like way off.
I'm trying to view this in linear space, right, with a simple multiplication when it's not.
If we were in our old school ABC correction, Elliott wave, lines on charts, everything moves exponentially, this model would work.
And I'll show you that.
Doing these simple multiplication figures, right, that over or under trend.
but it doesn't work with a power curve.
It doesn't work as well.
Now I do it, like I said,
I still do it as an analysis to show you generally,
okay, this is what 2x the trend is.
This is where the line is.
But you can see it's less helpful.
This is the point I'm trying to drive home.
It's less helpful as we move forward
because all we can really say
is these lines are not going to get hit, right?
There's just no way.
But here, here is more helpful.
All right, so this is where we do
individual regressions on every point
and then we just draw the lines out.
And they're not parallel,
which my multiplication lines were parallel,
but they sort of, they converge on each other.
They trace that lack of deviation, right?
They trace that sort of less, not lack of,
but less deviation that happens around the trend.
And so what you see is they start to converge on each other.
And this is even more helpful, I would say,
to show us where a top and where a bottom is.
So let's go back.
If anyone's listening to this on podcasts, I'm sorry,
you're going to have to go to the YouTube.
I'll put the video on Spotify as well.
You kind of need to see this one.
The first 10, 15 minutes talking about the power curve,
hopefully it was helpful.
But yeah, it really does help to watch the video with this stuff.
So now you can see in 2017, we hit it.
All right.
We still like hit the 100th percentile.
We did not in 2021.
But still, these curves are now closer.
And back to the 2022.
I'll just switch back so you can keep seeing.
2022, notice the 10th, the 0th was way far away.
The 10th percentile, which in this model would be 13, 14,000.
We still didn't hit in 2022, but now we are hitting the 0th in 2022 here.
So we are getting, we are painting bottoms.
Statistically, this is a much better chart.
Okay, it's much better.
And notice, by the way, notice how the multiples are different.
I show the multiples here too.
so this is now the multiple of price relative to the trend that you see and as you see
it's declining they decline they all decline they get smaller which is a good thing this is
this is a helpful model so this is only something you can do on a power curve that's what i'm gonna
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But the interesting thing there
is like on the other one,
other chart you were pulling up,
the percentile multiple,
it looked like we were
probably close to a bottom,
but there was still some room to go.
Whereas on this chart,
it looks like we're hitting
the absolute bottom.
Right, right, exactly.
And so you have to kind of guess,
you have to think,
okay, so hopefully we're not going to set some crazy low, but it looks pretty, you know, it still
looks low, but we're not, we're not quite sure here. We're scraping the bottom. Now, again,
to be clear, this is just statistics. Anything can happen, whatever. Um, but statistically right
now, according to a quantile regression of Bitcoin's price relative to the power curve,
we are basically at the bottom. I mean, 63 K as cheap as Bitcoin gas. Yeah. Relative to the power
trend this is as cheap as it gets and that's the key message that's the key point like yeah could
it drop another leg down yeah but that's not going to break the power curve it's just going to pull
this zero with line you know it's just going to slant its its tilt a little bit and the nice thing
about this analysis by the way danny as opposed to the other one is these lines move independently
of each other right with this one my multiple percentile multiple it's it's it's it's all about
the multiple at the end of the day so the max multiple is what stays and that's what keeps this
thing parallel it doesn't happen here they move independent and we can sort of see okay what could
be a more realistic thing so in my opinion yes and again always never financial advice but this is
relative to bitcoin's you know 6 500 day history whatever it is we are at
as cheap as you can can get relative to the power curve relative to the bitcoin trend
itself. That happened in 2022. It did not even happen in 2020. Although probably that was closer
because this got pulled down further. This is also a thing you can't show it how it evolved, but
it was probably closer in 2020 during that scare. And then really, you'd have to go back to like the
most thin days of Bitcoin trading to put these sort of multiples in. So that's where we are.
And I would say, you know, if you look at this chart, we're going to look at others. If you
still want to tell me that the four-year cycle doesn't have some interesting impact here,
I would say, you know, investigate your priors again. I mean, this is,
we have hit these types of bottoms at every prior four-year cycle. What is different? Yes,
we didn't have as high a high as last year as we talked about. What's also different is we have
scream down towards the bottom. All right. So in the last cycles, as most people might remember,
it took like a year, right? From 2017 to the year to bottom in December, 2018,
2021, it took a year, November, December, 2022. Now we have done this in a matter of months.
Yes, we didn't have a huge top and it was even a little bit earlier, October,
but now here we are in February. And this is where I'd say I'm very proud of this analysis.
This is something that really affirmed what I was saying.
I couldn't tell you it was going to happen,
but I was saying, you know,
let's just hold off on this sort of prognosticating
how Bitcoin's going to do something way different
than it did in the past.
I'll believe that if January, February,
we're at like, you know, over 100,000.
And look where we are.
We're totally following prior cycles.
Why do you think we're still trending
quite far below that power law line,
but we're not really going above it in the bull markets.
Ah, okay.
So I don't know the exact answer,
but I can show you an interesting chart
that would say we're actually not at the lowest.
Okay, so this is a cool chart right here.
What I'm showing you is,
let's see, you can take the forecast off.
So here's the old power curve.
And this is that gray line that I showed you before.
So at any given time, the power curve,
It's not a beautiful, you know, the line that you can draw after all time data.
But it's, you know, it does settle down and it goes to your question.
More of it.
In fact, two thirds of the time, we're under this green line that above it.
That's just the nature of what the Bitcoin power law does.
OK, so it generally tends to pull it down.
But what's cool is we're not at a low even right or right here.
Right now, we are not at a low.
So to show that, you actually have to do an interesting analysis here.
And again, this is where I can think.
I used to do this like on a monthly basis by hand.
It was more difficult.
But now with the magic of AI, I can do a lot more quicker.
But I could show you every day's forecast of what the power trend would predict today's price to be.
February, sorry, March 2nd.
March 2nd, happy spring.
March 2nd, 2026.
All right, so what you see on this blue line
was the prediction of the price
based on the Bitcoin data at the time
in March 2nd, 2026.
All right, so you'll notice in the early years,
like I said, when we're way sort of booming,
you get some crazy prices.
All right you not reading this wrong billion Basically you know the June 2011 peak when it went up to This was just around the first empty Gox hacking The power curve and no one was looking at this at the time
Trolololo was a famous Bitcoin talk poster, which is what I modeled my data off of. He was thinking
that it was a logarithmic curve, which is a little bit different, even more explosive at the
beginning. Any event, it's not how it's working now. If you did a power curve regression at the
time, it would have predicted March 2nd, 2026, $68 billion Bitcoin. Didn't happen. We had to wait
till we sort of settled into the data. And that happened really around 2016. All right. So Giovanni,
the Italian who is big on the power law, he did it a couple months before me. I did it in
December 2018. That's when I first noticed it. And then again, anybody can calculate it now.
It's very easy. But right around that time, if you start to look at the forecasted price at any
given time, it's pretty close to today's power curve. It is higher. All right. Notice 170K,
190K, it's higher. And it will get pulled down. As you noticed, and as I said, two-thirds of the
time, price is actually under the OLS. So we get pulled down, pulled down all the way to 130.
All right. So 130 is the number right now. And indeed, we're, you know, 50% under that. So it's
this huge buying opportunity, in my opinion. But let's look if that's actually the lowest,
except for, of course, the first like few months of data, the actual lowest painted value
is we have to go all the way here
after the crypto winter, as they call it,
to May 2017.
See what it's starting to show there?
125, 124.
Yeah, 124, 125.
So it's very interesting.
What it's saying is
we actually have about $5,000, $6,000 worth of room
to spare before this lower-than-trend price
action sort of pulls, you know, so we set a record low. And I would actually say that's a bullish
indicator. That's a bullish indicator. It doesn't mean, again, the power curve is over if we set a
record low. It just means, think about what that means. It means the curve doesn't always move
lower. Yeah, it always adjusts every day. This is not a stock to flow, you know, fix sort of thing.
This, it always adjusts the price, but it doesn't, you know, we are not at the all-time low here,
which is good and another thing to think about that is so how do i reconcile this uh again think
about how crazy that was the price in may 2017 was one thousand seven hundred dollars per bitcoin
it predicted and when i say predict i'm very it's a very statistical term i'm saying it doesn't know
the future but it projected 124 000 bitcoin by march 2nd 2026 it's remarkable it's a remarkable
Yeah. And so the other thing to think about is, OK, so it says 124. Now we're 130, but we're pulling the power curve down every day because we're under it. That's true. But there's also another force, which is the curve itself moving upward. The curve itself moves up $100 a day. So, again, I can't tell you how the math works out. They just have to observe it and see.
but if somehow we went into like super bearish mode
which I again I can't quite see
especially with all the geopolitical tensions in the world
but we go to some super crazy bearish mode
and the price stays at like the zeroeth
the tenth percentile
for a long time
then it is true it's possible we could like threaten
this sort of all-time low level
but this is this remains
this is one of my favorite data points
and it just sort of shows like
we're
we're not as bad as it's ever been as far as the power curve, which is bullish. That is bullish.
And it just shows, I think, the strength of where this curve is. And after all that diatribe, I hope
it kind of gets to your question of, you know, why is the price always below the curve or whatever?
It is true. It's below it two thirds of the time, but that's just the nature of the distribution.
It can also pull the curve up when we get to the boom phases. So you just have to look and see
where it goes. So you know what my next question is going to be. So if the four-year cycle is still
real, by like 2029, what price is this predicting or projecting that we're going to be at?
Sure. So let's go back to the quantile. That's the best way to look at it. Let's go to the end
of the decade. We're about 550. Okay. So I'll take it. If you notice, oops, sorry, that's 2029.
and notice the
difference
some people say end of the decade
is 2029
some people say 2030
let's go to 2029 just to show you the difference in a year
by the way so 2029
the highest
quantiles 550, 400
the OLS itself 235
but then let's just go out one more year
end of year 2030
OLS 544
5.50
5.44 on December 27,
2030. And let's say the
Q50, which would be the median, 5.16
Q60,
500. So again, pretty remarkable
numbers. And
that
number, that 5.50 number
has been there for a long time.
I've been talking about
this on streams and projecting it
for a while. It has been
pulled down during those boom years of
2021. And even though the curve was being pulled down, you still would be projecting by 2030,
December, like 590, 600,000. Now we're down to 550. So again, that's another example. It does
get pulled down, but all it takes is another boom or just, you know, another crop of people to find
the wonders of Bitcoin to pull the trend back up or back to a higher, you know, sort of level than
it was. So I would say with pretty high confidence, we're going to be at 550, maybe even higher by
2030. Hey, I will take 550 by 2030. That sounds all right to me, Matthew. It sounds all right.
We still haven't gotten a money supply, but, and I want to skip it. That's fine. It's good to-
No, we can't skip money supply. I want to do money supply. We've done a 45 minute tangent
there on power law. No, no, it's good. Let's stick on the four-year cycle for a second.
This is a very checkmatey chart.
You can get this at Bitcoin Lab.
A lot of great charts there.
Some of them costs, which I do pay for,
but I don't know if this is one.
So hodlers and loss versus hodlers and profit.
I'm going to take off short term just to look at long term.
I think this pretty much shows what's happening.
So this is UTXOs, right?
So this is pieces of Bitcoin.
Who's in loss?
Who's in profit?
Straight up.
Very simple.
let's ignore the
2013, although you can see
red certainly grows, but basically
every time we go into that year of bust
after the boom,
you get a lot of red.
Percentage-wise,
if you count long and short-term,
it can get even to 50% or 40%.
It's a little bit less if you look
at only long-term,
but you can see that
just like there's a period of deep red before the market bottoms out.
Lo and behold, where are we right now?
I mean, I would say, again, this is where I am super bullish long term,
but this is where you just got to look at the numbers
and think about what's happening here.
I mean, this could go lower, right?
This could go lower.
And even if it's not lower,
I think one of the things that looks obvious from this is
it's going to go longer at the very least.
Yeah.
that's probably even a more precise better answer it might not go lower but can go longer
and in my opinion you just can't look at this and say the four-year cycle is is that so yeah we hit
this quicker yeah we didn't have as high of a boom last year but you know in any market if you hit
your revenue by 50 which is what happens in the bitcoin market every four years it's going to
affect it it's going to affect it and it takes a while to catch up so let me just put this on
percentage again just to show you so here we go the the first two busts long-term hodlers in profit
and loss deep right 80 70 the next two 40 40 percent in loss and here where are we right now
just to show you we're at this is long-term now this is not short and long-term just long-term
of hot levels, it was over 155 days. We're at 2080. And again, you'd expect that number to
continually drop, right? The longer people have held coins. Right. It would be less, less of a
fall, which it has been, right? So it used to be 80% and 50 or 40. Now it's totally possible.
This could maybe only bottom at 30, but I just don't know the number. I don't think anybody does.
You have to, yeah, you can, we could do percentiles on this, by the way. I haven't done it yet. I've
planned on it, but I would say lower and longer, honestly. So this is where I would caution
sort of the bullish optimism we've been talking about. It's just, you know, we're just under the
curve and it takes time to play out no matter how many ETFs, you know, are accumulating Bitcoin.
It could come faster than prior cycles, but it's, this chart shows pretty clearly a four-year cycle
to me. This chart shows pretty clearly it's a good time to be stacking some SaaS.
Yeah, yeah, definitely. You want to do money supply? Let's do it. Let's do money supply. All right. So another thing, just to remind people that don't know who I am, in 2018, I also published a survey of the global monetary base. So I do that every quarter still. And as this little chart engine that I'm making continues to evolve, people will get access to that like every day in a nice format.
that. But the thing about money supply is you'll also see a lot of hype here. And I just want to
try to remind people, you just don't believe the hype. You have to be careful with the hype. Okay,
so I'm going to show you. Here's the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, just the Fed, just the
central bank of the United States. This is the craziness after the global financial crisis,
right? They flooded the system with money to not let any of the zombie banks go out, except for
Lehman. And Bitcoin was also born during this time. So Bitcoin on log scale, central bank is
on linear scale. The green is the actual bank note. So you see the money supply always increases.
And the blue, primarily the big blue number, that is the bank reserves. That is basically the
digital money that banks have. Usually they don't want to hold it. But in this case,
they did want to hold it because the system was so fragile. The Fed said,
We're not going to let, you know, you guys go under for all your bad loans.
We'll give you a bunch of bank reserves.
And so this is literally the money supply.
This is the printing press.
Now, I just want to tell you a quick story.
So I started publicly talking about Bitcoin 2017, 2016 a little bit, but 2016, 2017, so
10 years now.
I can't tell you how many people in the space, whether they were genuine or not, or sort
have thought that they were, you know, honest about the numbers, they would say,
the Fed, all the Fed does is print, all the Fed does is print, all the Fed does is print.
It was not the case. It was not the case. If you look here, all right, the total balance sheet
of the Federal Reserve, okay, it was, the total number here is about four and a half trillion,
I need to get the total there, you don't see it, but it's four and a half trillion dollars,
all right and it was fixed they actually fixed that number they didn't uh they wanted to show
the market they weren't going to print into infinity and what happened to the bitcoin price
while the federal reserve was actually even started to print its back or started to pull
its balance sheet down well the bitcoin price went up now it is true the bitcoin price went down
interestingly when the federal reserve more aggressively pulled the uh the balance sheet
down. But then it started to go up again in a 2019 boom. All right, then you had the silly season
really start to begin. And the market was way already, people could argue is way unstable here.
In 2019, there was a big repo spike in the short term lending markets of repurchase agreements,
which is the type of money, basically, it's treasuries that trade like money,
and you get a little bit higher premium. That market seized up. So they had to increase their
balance sheet again. You see it here in 2019. So this was already before the madness of silly season
pandemic started in the start of 2020. All right. So the Federal Reserve balance sheet went up,
Bitcoin was going down. Then of course we did harmonize again. We did harmonize again here
and we all went up together in 2021. Okay. Bitcoin price and the balance sheet. Then the Fed,
there's a very boogeyman number, $9 trillion. They never got to it. You can kind of see it's like
they almost hit $9 trillion balance sheet, but they didn't get to it. And then they started
to go down we had this uh weird that was the silicon valley yeah the regional bank crisis
yep silicon valley bank crisis uh a lot of guarantees were given again to banks some
liquidity so they popped the balance sheet up here but again powell uh actually to his credit
said we got to normalize get down and there's other things happening here we don't have to get
into all the detail the point is the balance sheet is going down all right from nine trillion
all the way till today, it's like six and a half.
Okay.
But what happened to the price of Bitcoin during this period?
It's going up.
It went up.
So, yeah, I just want to say this in a,
just a purely like transparent manner.
Like I've looked at this six ways this Sunday,
a lot of different balance sheets,
a lot of different central bank balance sheets.
Bitcoin, it's totally fine to say that
when central banks print,
eventually Bitcoin is going to go up
to handle the loss of purchasing power.
That's the total correct thing to say.
But in the short to midterm, nobody knows.
And what is more interesting and important, I would say,
is Bitcoin's movement itself
happens totally different than the other markets,
which is a power curve.
So that's a more interesting indicator
of where the price could be at any given time.
And again, I can't tell you where it's going.
I can just tell you the relative risk.
Back to the chart we just showed,
we are at an extreme, extreme low level
relative to the trend.
So again, it could always go lower.
We could go down to 50, whatever,
and set a new low,
set a new 0th percentile in that power trend.
But based on all the prior data,
Bitcoin, we're at extremely cheap level, okay?
And what is interesting is,
as you can see here,
the Federal Reserve,
the ECB is doing this too a little bit.
And everybody knows what Trump wants.
He wants lower interest rates
with his new Fed share.
So they're going to start printing as well.
Doesn't mean Bitcoin's going to skyrocket once they start printing, but it could line up again where we could have a boom with an increase in money supply.
Which is another thing, by the way, like I'm never a lot of doom and gloomers in the space, right?
I'm not that.
I'm not going to say it's actually good that the financial markets go haywire and more money gets printed.
We know for sure that's baked in.
They're going to do it.
Okay.
But the point of showing you this curve over the long time and the detail the Fed's balance
sheet is here, I don't think they're that correlated at the moment.
In fact, you can basically see, yes, the numbers both go up over time.
But Bitcoin can go in a two, three-year bull while the central bank balance sheet is going
down.
And it can also go up while the central bank balance sheet is going up.
It just can do both.
So I was talking to Alex Thorne about this recently.
And so like you, I got into Bitcoin in like 2016, 2017.
And the whole like Fed printing to make Bitcoin go up just wasn't a narrative then that I remember at least.
And I think it would be really good to shake that narrative more because it's really like the macro side of Bitcoiners came in in like 2018, as I remember it.
And I think all the Bitcoiners that came in sort of 2020 onwards after the COVID print associate like Fed printing money with Bitcoin going up.
And I think that's a really limiting narrative.
Yeah.
I mean, you can see it right here.
They knew, everybody knew.
Well, let me just take this to the next level now.
So here's the Fed balance sheet, all right, with Bitcoin.
Let's just do the global monetary base, okay?
So I'm showing you the Fed still.
That's slightly different.
I showed you total balance sheet.
This is just the monetary base.
So going back here, it's just the notes and just the bank reserves.
That's the technical difference.
There's other crazier things that happen with repurchase agreements.
We don't have to go into it, but this is the global monetary base.
Okay, so this is every central bank in the world.
It's like 100 currencies in here.
The value of their currency relative to the price of Bitcoin.
So just like you said, the narrative is not always hold true.
And look, Bitcoin can go up while they print less money.
So that's what it did over the last couple of years.
And then here, so this is a very sort of slow moving, unfortunately, chart.
I try to get it right and it takes a lot of time now.
So this, even December now is going to get updated
probably only by April.
So this is only September.
But I can show you with the Fed, as I see,
we do have indications it's going up.
So that's for sure.
We can look at individual central bank balance sheets.
But again, this might even be a little bit higher
for fourth quarter, 2025, and Bitcoin went down.
So again, it's that narrative.
It doesn't work on a day-to-day, a week-to-week,
or even a month to month.
You can certainly see some things that overlap.
The 2021 was very, very clear, right?
Very, very clear.
But it didn't happen this last time.
And I think there's, as a Bitcoiner,
if you want to think long-term, big picture, relax,
like we talked about at the top of the show,
the world is moving fast,
a lot of just crazy geopolitical events.
Be prepared for, say, central banks printing money,
but Bitcoin doing nothing.
or be prepared for central banks printing money
and Bitcoin also going gangbusters.
Both can happen.
The data does not show us one way or another
that Bitcoin has to skyrocket
with central banks printing money.
And again, I wouldn't even encourage that, frankly,
for just a general attitude towards life.
But with this narrative of the debasement trade,
I think that probably would happen If you just go back to that other chart Because like you say you can see that those Fed balance sheets look like they are starting to go up again How aggressively do you think they will
go up? Do you think we'll see another big print? Actually, at the moment,
so when the central bank balance sheet goes up, interest rates go down, okay, that means they're
stepping in and buying. So on the other side of this trade, basically, the other side of all of
this money is basically the Fed's portion of government bonds. They have plenty of room.
And actually, I need to pull up another chart. Let me show you a different way to look at this.
The United States, like I've said this a lot, the dollar is the best looking horse in the glue
factory, right? So another thing that you can say with this chart, all right, let's take Bitcoin off.
You see how this chart has gone down since 2021, 2022. It is true that central banks around the
they all realized that they responded crazily,
whether that was right or wrong.
All of us in Bitcoin space would think it's wrong
and unnecessary and all the rest.
But they knew that they had to pull it back.
They did.
But also, they actually didn't pull it back
as aggressively as this looks.
The Fed did, as you can see for sure here,
the Fed pulled their balance sheet way down
from nine to six trillion, basically.
If you look at the global number,
this is a Wittgenstein's ruler thing.
I'm showing you in dollars,
but if you can just imagine like euros
and yen and yuan.
They did go down,
but actually it wouldn't be this low
if other currencies also didn't lose value
against the dollar.
So when they lose value against the dollar,
this chart looks even worse.
So that's another thing.
And so this goes back to the dollar depacement trade
or whatever, or even the position that Trump might be in
with all of this,
all of Putin's buddies toppling all over the world,
these dictators falling over the world, the dollar might come out of this looking pretty good,
even stronger, and maybe even too strong, you can argue. And that's what Trump would argue. And
that's why he would try to debase the dollar more. He just wants low interest rates for real estate
deals, as we know. But that's the argument he could make. And let me show you another chart
that basically, I know you don't like to do politics, Danny, and I'm not going to go into
But this is sort of, this is the same chart, it's a monetary base, but it's in the lens of free world versus autocracies.
Now, if there's a sprightly young 20-something saying, oh, we don't have a true free market, whatever.
Yes, I know. Nothing's perfect, okay, but go live in Pyongyang if you don't think that we don't have examples of free markets in the West versus autocratic countries.
So here I have, basically, I have the United States.
I have NATO, looking from a military sort of perspective,
non-US NATO, which unfortunately includes Turkey.
They're definitely an autocracy.
Japan, Switzerland, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Ukraine.
Then I have autocracies, China, unfortunately Hong Kong,
that's just rolled in, Russia, Iran.
And Iran is even overstated
because I'm using official market rates
and it's not even nearly as high as this.
And then rest of the world.
Rest of the world is basically global south.
You got big countries in there.
You got India, Pakistan, but that's the global south.
So it just shows you the difference.
And actually, don't look at this now as a debasement,
but look at this as just how much money countries have.
I'm going to show you this as a percentage.
Okay, so it's coming.
Just give it a second.
This is sort of interesting.
So people always talk about China's position
and they're gearing up to invade.
They've already said they want to be ready at least to invade Taiwan by 2027.
That's been publicly stated.
But look at the financial position of the monetary base.
In dollar terms, it's true.
It's a little bit different in different currencies.
But in dollar terms, China actually was its largest proportion of the pie back before the global financial crisis.
26% of the pie.
All right.
now, and when everybody hated what the communist regime was doing in China, and of course,
their dishonesty of all the pandemic, we don't have to go down the road.
They were 15% of the pie.
Now, they are up to 19%.
Okay, so they're growing again.
But that pie is pretty weak on that side, like Russia.
I'm gonna have to hold my tongue to say too many things.
But people that know me know I live on the border of Russia.
And Putin has lost three of his buddies in the last 15 months.
He's lost Assad. He's lost Maduro. And now he's lost Khamenei.
There's a new supreme leader certainly already tapped. We don't know who it is.
And Iran's going to try to keep fighting, whatever. We're not enough to comment on the war.
But my point is, this is a pretty weak pie of autocracies.
And the dollar might come out looking OK here.
and uh i could make a joke you know as long as the united states doesn't flip red on this chart but
that doesn't happen so that doesn't happen generally you know the rule of law the free world
even as sort of crazy as it is you might you might find support for the dollar a lot stronger
than people might be anticipating and even with that strength that would allow trump to uh debase
it more. This kind of plays into the Brent Johnson dollar milkshake theory thing, right? Like it's
all current, all fiat currencies might fail, but the dollar will be the last one to fail.
Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Uh, you know, I think people have said different variants of that
for a long time and it's absolutely the case. So I don't have this updated through February,
but I do, I think through January, this is the all time United States debt. And basically it's
It's that chart I showed you, the Fed's balance sheet.
This is the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet.
Okay, this is actual printing press,
the money that they print to buy debt.
And here is the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet.
So the dark green is the actual treasury securities
that they own.
So let's just zoom in to, let's say,
post-global financial crisis era.
You see this COVID print, pandemic print here.
And if you take this as a percentage,
the picture becomes very interesting. So in 2021, the Federal Reserve owned more United States debt
than it had ever owned in its history, 28 cents on the dollar. This is literally what you would
call the printing of debt. So this is the, what you see here is the visual of debt monetization.
For every dollar that the United States had issued in debt throughout its history,
This was a record in that the Federal Reserve printed 28 cents of that debt.
That's what it means.
Which is an insanely high number.
It is a very high number.
But think about this.
Other hyperinflations, they go to 100%.
The only buyer of Zimbabwe dollars would be the Zimbabwe Bank.
Okay, so you go Powell, again, to his credit, to his credit, higher interest rates.
He said it very clearly at the Jackson Hole speech a couple of years ago, and this was sort of like his life's goal, and he did it.
So now, look, we are at a level already pre-pandemic, 16%, 16% or so of, so we've gone from nearly 30 cents on the dollar down to only 15 cents.
And that's actually a prior record that was set in like more distant times in the Vietnam War.
It's about 15, 16 cents on the dollar.
at the very end of the Vietnam War. By the way, that percentage went down not because the Federal
Reserve was printing less money, but because the United States started to issue more debt.
But the interesting thing about that chart is that while it does go down in the interim,
like that dark green section is only going up over time.
100%. 100%. Yeah. I mean, it's not going to end well. I'm not saying that... This is where
where Bitcoin plays into it. It really, this is the long-term Bitcoin thesis. At some point,
every nation is going to want to get, I'm not going to say they're going to want to get off
all fiat currency. And I know the timing of that. Of course, I don't. Again, just look at the relative
risk of the power curve and where we are. But the last thing they want to get off in the fiat world
is probably dollars because the dollar is still managed in a way where they want to try to protect
it relative to the debt. And they have actually done that. Again, the numbers tell a very different
story than the narrative. Okay. So to be clear, for those that are listening, we are far from the
record of monetizing debt. We're only at 16 cents on the dollar. I'm not saying it's a good thing.
I'm not saying I'm not defending the Federal Reserve. I'm not saying, you know, I'm not a
Bitcoiner, whatever, if people are thinking about these different things. I'm just saying this is
the reality of the situation. So if Trump comes off of, if Trump has a success, and I'm not sure
he has planned that out. But if he does have success in Iran, and somehow there's regime change,
you could see plenty of room for people to want to buy dollars, use dollars.
And that would actually give Trump even more room to make this percentage increase,
and thus have lower interest rates, and thus, you know, put another sugar high for everybody
for another boom. So I still remember your original question, Danny.
It's not going to go as high unless there's a major shock to everyone in the free world.
And I use that term strictly, like in the free world.
If this goes on in Iran for like 50 days or 100 days and the Strait of Hormuz can't get opened and shipping is completely cut off and there are major, major geopolitical disruptions, then it could be like some issues here.
But if somehow some sort of normalcy goes, let's even not even theorize with what happens. Maybe some new regime in Iran stays and Trump doesn't fully get the goals done or whatever. You could still generally see pretty moderate growth of economies. Shipping lanes get back open and Trump has plenty of room to print.
and then you could also see even a better outcome
where there's even more demand for dollars
and Trump doesn't even need to print as much
but you could still get interest rates to go down.
So the point is I do not see in the future
any sort of pandemic style printing of money
or 2008 style printing of money.
It doesn't mean it couldn't happen.
It doesn't mean there's not massive debt problems
in the consumer credit market and other things
but there are, I do have to say
as someone who lives next door to Russia
Like, it is actually encouraging to see dictators falling.
How that's going to work out for the free world, the democratic world, very much an open question.
But I would say the United States is actually at a relatively decent position, how their balance sheet looks.
And certainly, certainly, if something bad did happen, they have plenty of room to print more.
So, again, that's just my narrative, sort of how I'm seeing the world.
Again, none of it has to do with, I have no, everything I just said has nothing to do with what's going to happen to Bitcoin in the next two to three months.
For that, go back to the power curve.
For that, stick with the statistics.
Stick with, for now, the idea that the four-year cycle is not broken.
And judge your opinions, your decisions, based on the relative risk of where Bitcoin sits relative to this amazing growth trajectory that it's on.
which is uh which is a power law and bitcoin doesn't need the fed to go up um i love it man
this has been cool and anything else we've been through a ton of charts there is there anything
else that uh you want to go through before we finish we have i think i one thing i teased on
that i did not actually fully get to so let me just find it is the is the how a normal trajectory
of a of a stock would grow these are the fastest growing stocks in the world this is an ai trade
So this is Magnificent Seven, you know, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, even Tesla.
I wouldn't put Tesla in here, frankly, because I don't think they're pure tech, but that's what it is.
So this is now, this is similar.
This is that evolving.
This is a good way to end the pod, actually.
So it's the same evolving curve that I started before, right?
I said that notice how with Bitcoin's power curve, it gets closer to the line, but actually farther away from the extremes, right?
With this one, this is an exponential chart.
This is compound growth.
This is what we talked about.
This is totally different.
This is how all financial markets grow.
It's a straight line on log linear.
But notice how Bitcoin set its extremes at the very beginning, right?
7x over trend, 0.1x.
This is setting the extremes. This goes back to the same life of Bitcoin, by the way, 2008.
This is setting the extremes around the pandemic and after. And I would dare say, in fact, this is
not even a risk to say this at all. These markets can go back to the extremes very easily because
they're exponential, because they're more volatile. They don't follow what a power curve follows.
And the math is totally different in log linear space. And so you can actually see
it's still a great curve all right 98 percent r squared 98.7 percent r squared but look at the
volatility and by the way i'm not saying don't invest in mag 7 stocks like it's you know as long
as this ai trade ai trade keeps going it's been a great you know look at these keggers 27 25 percent
i imagine like passive flows count a lot to this as well and things like that but like this straight
line up just looks like eventually that's unsustainable that can't continue forever surely
Well, you know, the stock market itself,
if you did this over 200 years of stock market,
you'd have a straight line.
It'd be a very gradual, it'd be like a straight line
and then the next, you actually get a faster,
it's what Jeffrey West calls super exponential growth.
You get faster and faster curves.
You know, I did a pod, not a pod,
a circuit last summer around the European Bitcoin conferences
And I was trying to compare Jeffrey West theorized about the singularity as a mathematical event, not like Ray Kurzweil talking about, you know, if it's AI or whatever.
But there's no doubt everybody's getting, you know, the world is moving faster.
People are trying to figure it out.
There's a couple scenarios.
First of all, I think it's totally possible that all this sort of circle jerk of capital that's flowing into the AI companies, which is pretty well documented, right?
Like, you know, Microsoft invested into Anthropic and OpenAI and Amazon as well and back into Amazon and all this stuff.
That could be a bubble.
It could be like something as extreme as you go up here and then you go all the way down here, right?
That's totally possible.
But at the end of that carnage, it's totally possible that we have something like, you know, Amazon, the strong, well, you know, functioning companies.
just regular business, well-managed companies could come out of that better after the carnage.
Now, again, I'm not predicting it. I don't know for sure. It does seem crazy. But if you look at
this curve itself, this is the market cap of the Magnificent Seven, $20 trillion. They're actually
right on trend. It's not as extreme as it was back in 2021 with the meme stock trading. It's
not as bad as it was in 2022 when it went down to $7 trillion. So we'll see. Maybe it could run
for a couple more years.
I'm not sure.
But the point of bringing up
the speaker circuit
that I did in last year
was Jeffrey West,
he did not talk about Bitcoin
in his book.
It's a really good book, Scale.
People should read it
if you want to really dive
into the numbers
of what we're talking about
with the statistics here
and regressions and power laws
versus exponential curves.
He kind of theorizes
that we're going to move
into some sort of a new,
his singularity
is a mathematical singularity.
And he theorizes
that it could be technology
that takes us to the next level,
but he's just not sure.
And he doesn't mention Bitcoin.
And I think Bitcoin is a nice answer
to his theory of where
a lot of this craziness could end
and it could kind of, you know,
smooth out the volatility
and we get onto something more grounded.
And it's like,
the good analogy that Ray Kurzweil talks about
is the transcendent man.
Okay, so it might have seemed,
you know, crazy in the 50s
to have rock music
and the devil was, you know, going to take over society.
But, you know, we moved on from that.
You know, it didn't take over.
And we, you know, we then have, you know, the World Wide Web,
and that seems crazy.
Then we have the dot-com boom.
That seems crazy.
But we just keep moving forward and forward.
So I think all of that stuff is going to hold.
Again, regular markets have huge booms and busts.
But the beautiful thing about Bitcoin
and the thing that is really undeniably different about Bitcoin
is it moves on a more sustainable curve.
And so I think I've been theorizing a lot about this on my own show.
What could it mean?
What could it mean for interest rates, growth, all that?
Let's not get into that too much at the end of your show.
But I do think five, 10 years from now, when Bitcoin is theorized to be $20 trillion, right, in market cap 10 years from now, let's say, roughly, that's going to match the global monetary base.
I mean, I plot it quite clearly.
Okay. By the end of the 2030s, you're going to be at the level of global money. And Bitcoin is going
to be growing on a sustainable curve. Global money is going to be growing on an unsustainable curve
with a lot of interest, a lot of fiat interest. Those things are going to merge. They're going
to merge. How it happens, I still don't know yet, but that's the hope that the Bitcoin network gives
to us. So that's what I'd say about all that. I think that's the next show we should do.
next time we're in the same place let's do that in person and do bitcoin is the singularity good
good my friend i'm good for that awesome um matthew this has been fun i'm gonna see you in bed for
in a few weeks um thank you i appreciate you coming on the show no problem danny looking
forward to it bitcoin is cheap now is a good time to stack some stats uh tell everyone where they can
catch out your stream yes uh so uh one base money you can find me at the handle one base money
everywhere basically youtube twitter uh nostr and uh the channel's called porkopolis economics
on youtube let's go all right man i will see you in bed for a few weeks thank you all right danny
take care
Thank you.