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I love Bitcoin. I don't love that. I don't do business for the sake of business. I didn't go

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to business school. I'm not a Silicon Valley guy. I love Bitcoin. If what the company became

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and the direction the board wants to take it in was initially the decision made at founding,

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I would have never started it and I would have never been a part of it. Once you stay the course

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and you see the other side, you realize like things that you mistake for punishments are really just

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gifts. The world had to teach me a lot if I wanted to become the man that I am now.

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And how else would I have acquired what I needed to acquire if it wasn't then and if it wasn't that?

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I want to build what I believe in. I want to build for people that believe in the things that I do.

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I want to build for Bitcoiners. I want to build a company that I want to work for.

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I want to build products that I would actually use.

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ready to go man nice how you doing i'm good i'm good i'm good things have changed a bit since uh

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last time we recorded yeah you just made the announcement at the conference um everything

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like when i saw the news that you were leaving 21 i was very surprised i was actually odell's house

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i was the first one awake that morning he walked in i was like holy shit jack's left 21

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on. Tell the story. What happened? So the company that I co-founded and wanted to build and the

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company 21 was becoming were no longer the same. And I felt it was the right thing to do for a lot

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of reasons to exit the business. So I stepped down as a CEO and 21 still goes on. It's still

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business. It's still listed on the New York Stock Exchange and nothing about the company has changed

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except for who leads it, which is obviously a big change.

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And yeah, I mean, listen, it was disappointing.

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I own the fact that I started a thing

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and set expectations for said thing and I didn't achieve it.

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And that part is very disappointing and it sucks,

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but I also know it's the right thing to do,

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which we can get into.

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And I feel good about the decision that I made.

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And I also wrote an essay that hilariously, I wasn't allowed to publish it because I was still a public company officer.

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So I published it only recently after I publicly stepped down.

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But part of that essay is centered around this idea of what punishments are not gifts, which I think is very bear market-esque of Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin to me is the money of integrity and humility.

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And through the seasons that Bitcoin experiences, I've experienced seasons as well.

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and this is my latest winter.

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And although it's been painful

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and I own all of the unfortunate outcomes as the CEO,

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I think there are many gifts embedded in this

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and I feel good.

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And obviously it doesn't change how I think about Bitcoin,

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but I'm happy to tell you,

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now I can say whatever I want.

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So I'm happy to tell you anything you want.

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Obviously, I don't want to talk on behalf of a company

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that I am no longer employed by and work on,

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so even if I was allowed to do that

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just the man I am

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I would not do that

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it's their company

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and those guys are still my friends

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and I still think they can go on and crush it

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but anything about the founding

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and any of the stories

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like ask me whatever you want

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it's funny because you're saying

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you weren't able to release that article

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because you're still the CEO of public company

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when me and Odell were talking about it on the podcast

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which was really awkward by the way

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because we're essentially talking about you

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who's a friend of both of ours

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while you're not there

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it's kind of a hard thing to broach

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I'd much rather have the harder conversation with you directly.

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Sure.

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But one of the things I said is the thing that I'm most excited about

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in a selfish way is that I feel like Jack's back.

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I feel like this is Jack on Shackle again.

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I feel like I'm back.

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Which is awesome.

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So let's go through,

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where did the divergences between your vision for the company

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and the board's vision for the company start?

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What were the problems that you encountered?

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So I think when we founded it,

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and we as Tether and I,

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And Tether means really Giancarlo and Paolo.

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Paolo, everybody knows the CEO.

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Giancarlo is the founder of Tether.

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And this probably shouldn't become a Tether podcast,

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but people say Brock Pierce co-founded Tether.

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And there's like some vague truths to that,

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but like the actual founder of the stable coin

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and the actual founder of Tether

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and the chairman of the business is Giancarlo.

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And so Giancarlo and Paolo and I,

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And the rest of the Tether team is great.

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But I would say those are the core conversations

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of creating this thing and what it would look like,

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what it would be called.

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I branded 21.

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I came up with the name.

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I registered the ticker.

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All of that stuff.

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That was the group.

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And that group, and we still do,

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share this unified vision of,

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well, on one side of a spectrum,

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you have a Coinbase or a Robinhood.

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These are classic FinTechs that have customers and they have products and they produce cash flow right The cost to run the business is less than the revenue that they produce They have profit

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and that gets investors excited. The business is worth a lot. The business is growing.

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However, their conviction in Bitcoin is either small or non-existent. They don't hold a lot of

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Bitcoin on the balance sheet, if at all, relative to other assets, their focus and how they ship

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products, where they focus their lobbying attention in Washington, DC, everything about the company.

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Like, I think Coinbase, I don't think it's false to say that they care more about Ethereum than Bitcoin, historically.

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So that's one side, is you've got good businesses with cash flow and growth, like historically what an investor would look for.

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You value these businesses on discounted cash flow or some future.

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Okay, the other side of the spectrum are what became treasury companies, which I would say the opposite.

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These are businesses that don't have customers, don't have cash flow, don't have products at all, purposefully so, but do have conviction in Bitcoin.

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That is what they sell.

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They sell like, not only do I believe in Bitcoin, I believe so much I'm going to lever myself to believe in it.

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And I want to be the biggest believer in it.

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And when you buy this equity, it means you believe in it more than anybody else.

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And these are like two polar opposing things.

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and Tether and I, and specifically Giancarlo Paolo and I had come from, I mean, we've all been in

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Bitcoin for a very long time. And so we've been through the like, when Silk Road went bust,

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when Moncox went down, when Coinbase was a Bitcoin company and became a shitcoin company.

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And then Binance was going to be the Bitcoin company for the world. Then FTX was going to be

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the Bitcoin company for the world. And then Giancarlo created Tether and Tether was after

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he created Bifinex. He didn't create Bifinex, but we had experienced the industry for a long time.

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where we're like, surely we can create something that lives in this synergetic middle where we've

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been able to create cash generating businesses, businesses that have been successful, meaning we

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produce more profits than we have costs, but we believe in Bitcoin and we believe Bitcoin is the

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innovation. It should be the sole focus. And I've gotten there through Strike. They've gotten there

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through their businesses. And that was the vision. Can we create a public equity that was both?

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and I think eventually how we got there and how we were going to achieve that changed

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like for example I'll say this like if what the company became and the direction the board wants

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to take it in was initially the decision made at founding I would have never started it and I would

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have never been a part of it and you know some other things that the public probably doesn't

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And I was like, you know, Strike being a part of 21 was never part of the initial discussion.

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In fact, I'll never forget sitting in one of what I would consider like the founding meetings and saying like,

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I just got to a point where I was lucky enough and worked hard enough to have a thing that works in Strike.

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And like, I don't consider myself one of these like serial entrepreneurs.

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Like, I don't want to do this again.

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Like, I did.

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You've done it.

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Yeah.

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I don't build companies because I love it.

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And I love sleeping on your friend's couch

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and drawing on the chalkboard.

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I don't love that.

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I love Bitcoin.

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I don't love that.

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I don't do business for the sake of business.

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I didn't go to business school.

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I'm not a Silicon Valley guy.

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I love Bitcoin.

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And I love promoting Bitcoin.

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And so I had a very blunt conversation of like,

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I have this other thing.

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And they were like, you should be the CEO of both.

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And we'll support that.

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And so eventually, obviously, that changed.

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and why that changed. The market evolved. When we started it, Bitcoin was in the middle and

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becoming of a bull run. By the time we listed on the New York Stock Exchange, strategy had changed

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the definition of MNAV. Treasury companies were distressed. Bitcoin is falling off a cliff. So

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things change. Markets change. I mean, SoftBank was on the board. SoftBank stepped down from the

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board. The board changed. And so things changed. But that's okay. That's okay. These guys,

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are great guys. They're real Bitcoiners. And at the end of the day, 21 was never mine,

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which is very unfortunate because I think I set expectations in a way that I need to own.

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I laid out my vision, what I wanted us to do. And ultimately, I wasn't able to see that through,

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which I feel awful about and I own. But I had no governing control to do what I wanted to do.

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it was ultimately up to the board. And one day the board and I started to diverge a bit

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on how we were going to achieve the initial vision based on

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the world changing. And it doesn't make anyone a villain, I guess, if that makes sense.

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I genuinely mean that. It is unfortunate, but 21 has what it needs to be successful.

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I mean, what did we achieve? We built the second largest treasury,

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which there's some fud around that of like, we never actually bought Bitcoin.

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It was all contributed by Tether.

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That's not true.

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We bought almost a billion and a half dollars worth of Bitcoin And we listed in the public capital markets which Not easy to do No I remember having a conversation with my fiance I was like I mean I really I mean

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this stuff is hard, man. I feel like I let people down and I own that. And I was talking

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to her about it and she didn't know uh adam backs uh by name and the company he was trying to start

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but she was like hey you guys actually stacked a bunch of bitcoin and listed it in the public

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markets and the 21 board has what they need to be a successful company like you know at least

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you know the transaction didn't get canceled and i'm not you know adam knows i love him i'm not in

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any way discrediting or speaking. I don't know what happened there. But yeah, I mean,

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we did a thing. And at some point, I wasn't the right guy to lead it, unfortunately.

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If you hold Bitcoin long enough, there's going to come a time when you need some dollars.

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It might be a tax bill, a business expense, life getting in the way. But whatever it is,

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it might come at a time when you don't want to sell your Bitcoin. That's where Ledin comes in.

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Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin instead with tiered rates that go as low as 9.25%.

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So you don't have to sell your stack if you don't want to.

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Ledin have operated through every market cycle since 2018 and have originated over $11 billion

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in loans.

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But the important part for me is the way Ledin handles these loans.

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Your collateral is held in custody and never lent out to generate interest.

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And Ledin's more than just loans.

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Tether Gold is now live alongside your Bitcoin with instant trading across 10 pairs.

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And later this year, you'll be able to borrow against gold in the same way that you do with

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Bitcoin.

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Ledin really is an awesome company.

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I've used them multiple times.

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the applications have taken you less than 15 minutes and you have the dollars in your account

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within hours. If you want to check out Ledin, go to ledn.io and use the code WBD for 0.25% off your

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first loan. That's ledn.io and use the code WBD. You wouldn't reuse a Bitcoin address, so why does

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your phone broadcast the same identifier for life? Every SIM has a static ID and carriers, ad networks

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00:12:31,266 --> 00:12:35,946
and bad actors all use it to track you. The big carriers have been caught selling that data over

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00:12:35,946 --> 00:12:41,706
and over again cape is america's privacy first mobile carrier their identifier rotation feature

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changes your id every 24 hours so you look like a different subscriber every single day

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and sim swaps are off the table your number can't move without a 24 word phrase that only you hold

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there's also no name at sign up no social security number and there's no profile to build on you

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if you're a bitcoiner in america i honestly don't know why you'd use any other network

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You can head over to cape.co forward slash WBD and use the code WBD for 33% off your first six months.

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That's C-A-P-E dot co forward slash WBD.

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If you own a Bitcoin ETF, especially if it's GBTC, you need to listen up.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide price exposure to Bitcoin, not direct ownership.

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You can't withdraw it, you can't self-custody it, and they charge you a management fee every year to hold it.

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Well, Swan recently announced Swan Real Bitcoin Exchange and it's ready to use right now.

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00:13:31,386 --> 00:13:37,386
RBX is a structured in-kind exchange that converts your spot Bitcoin ETF shares into real on-chain Bitcoin.

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00:13:37,686 --> 00:13:41,926
It does that without selling on the open market and is designed to support a tax-efficient outcome.

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So for example, if you hold GBTC, you're paying 1.5% a year in management fees for Bitcoin price exposure.

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But by swapping GBTC for real Bitcoin with RBX, you can drop that figure as low as 0% by just holding it in self-custody.

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This is designed in a way that maintains your cost basis

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00:13:58,466 --> 00:14:01,386
and in a manner that supports the deferral of capital gains tax.

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00:14:01,826 --> 00:14:04,566
So if you own a Bitcoin ETF, especially if it's GBTC,

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00:14:05,326 --> 00:14:08,046
you need to talk to Swan Private about RBX today.

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Head over to swan.com forward slash WBD

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00:14:10,986 --> 00:14:12,686
and book in a call with one of their team.

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That's swan.com forward slash WBD.

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It's funny you say the thing about Strike merging with 21

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was never part of the plan at the start.

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Because you said that to me when we first did the show

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after I took over the podcast,

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it was just after you'd announced the launch of 21.

223
00:14:28,726 --> 00:14:31,166
And you said that, and I believed you.

224
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And then when you made the announcement

225
00:14:33,146 --> 00:14:34,246
that they were going to merge, I was like,

226
00:14:34,266 --> 00:14:36,826
oh, was I being naive because you were the CEO

227
00:14:36,826 --> 00:14:38,826
of a public company, like there's things you just can't say.

228
00:14:39,126 --> 00:14:41,306
But that really was never part of the plan originally.

229
00:14:42,086 --> 00:14:42,746
Yeah, it was never part.

230
00:14:43,106 --> 00:14:48,206
In fact, what I would consider like the founding meeting,

231
00:14:48,866 --> 00:14:50,106
and that's the thing, I've known these guys

232
00:14:50,106 --> 00:14:52,986
for a very long time and obviously still do,

233
00:14:52,986 --> 00:14:56,786
but there was one specific time we all met up.

234
00:14:58,006 --> 00:15:01,426
And yeah, I made the point.

235
00:15:01,626 --> 00:15:04,006
I was like, you know, the strike thing to me,

236
00:15:04,646 --> 00:15:06,386
I don't, and we can talk about this,

237
00:15:06,406 --> 00:15:10,166
I don't need to be like the biggest or the bestest

238
00:15:10,166 --> 00:15:12,486
or own the most Bitcoins, you know, obviously.

239
00:15:12,926 --> 00:15:14,506
This isn't an ego race with Michael Saylor.

240
00:15:15,326 --> 00:15:16,426
It's something about Saylor.

241
00:15:16,686 --> 00:15:19,666
It's, and this is what I talk about in the essay.

242
00:15:20,226 --> 00:15:22,086
Bitcoin is the great humbler.

243
00:15:22,086 --> 00:15:24,086
It is the death of ego.

244
00:15:24,086 --> 00:15:27,086
It is the money of humility and integrity.

245
00:15:27,086 --> 00:15:31,086
And when I think about like the Mount Rushmore for me

246
00:15:31,086 --> 00:15:44,289
is like Satoshi Nakamoto That is the greatest display of build something great for the sake of what it represents

247
00:15:44,289 --> 00:15:53,449
and what it can do, not for what it can make you and what it brings you. And so I try and embody

248
00:15:53,449 --> 00:15:56,409
that level of integrity and honesty.

249
00:15:58,168 --> 00:16:02,749
And so, yeah, I am okay with just being a Bitcoiner

250
00:16:02,749 --> 00:16:04,229
and orange-pilling people and building.

251
00:16:04,749 --> 00:16:09,369
I like building my company that I build products

252
00:16:09,369 --> 00:16:10,289
that I want to use.

253
00:16:10,529 --> 00:16:12,909
I build a business that I would want to work for.

254
00:16:13,428 --> 00:16:14,348
And I'm okay with that.

255
00:16:14,449 --> 00:16:16,249
I don't need more than that.

256
00:16:16,409 --> 00:16:17,789
And I had that conversation.

257
00:16:19,609 --> 00:16:22,609
And the result was like, well, there's many people

258
00:16:22,609 --> 00:16:29,309
that run two businesses and we have plenty of ways to support your ability to do that. And so like,

259
00:16:29,309 --> 00:16:34,069
I just made it known, a known thing, but yeah, it was not, it was not part of it. And obviously

260
00:16:34,069 --> 00:16:41,609
at some point that changed. And I would say that the, I mean, listen, investors in the market was

261
00:16:41,609 --> 00:16:49,589
pushing that on the board saying like, you know, the market wants to see Jack's efforts consolidate

262
00:16:49,589 --> 00:16:56,189
into a public equity. People want to buy Bitcoin. They want to buy Jack. They wanted to buy Tether

263
00:16:56,189 --> 00:17:03,169
and having these things kind of spread apart and what's what. And when Jack makes a product

264
00:17:03,169 --> 00:17:06,448
announcement, is he talking about the thing that I just invested in or is he talking about another

265
00:17:06,448 --> 00:17:13,169
thing? And so to be clear, I'm not implying there was some like sneaky plan. I think things evolved

266
00:17:13,169 --> 00:17:17,289
and then the board and specifically Tether

267
00:17:17,289 --> 00:17:19,389
thought that that was a good idea

268
00:17:19,389 --> 00:17:20,829
and they wrote that blog post

269
00:17:20,829 --> 00:17:23,529
and then the Bitcoin conference was me

270
00:17:23,529 --> 00:17:24,669
opining on the blog post

271
00:17:24,669 --> 00:17:26,968
and sharing where the visions overlapped

272
00:17:26,968 --> 00:17:29,069
but I was obviously, I was very careful

273
00:17:29,069 --> 00:17:30,508
and like if we could make it work

274
00:17:30,508 --> 00:17:33,448
at the time, there was a lot that wasn't figured out

275
00:17:33,448 --> 00:17:35,409
and obviously the world now knows

276
00:17:35,409 --> 00:17:36,889
that we couldn't figure it out

277
00:17:36,889 --> 00:17:38,008
we couldn't make everybody happy

278
00:17:38,008 --> 00:17:41,109
and yeah, that's why, I mean

279
00:17:41,109 --> 00:17:43,029
above all else

280
00:17:43,029 --> 00:17:53,129
uh i'm not a i i again i i own the outcomes i got i have one of the reasons uh i wasn't i wouldn't

281
00:17:53,129 --> 00:17:59,968
say dubious about doing the show but um i don't want people to perceive my words as like asking

282
00:17:59,968 --> 00:18:05,829
for sympathy or asking for acceptance or being like okay now i understand your side of the story

283
00:18:05,829 --> 00:18:14,409
so like i forgive you so i'm asking for like i i deserve to be held accountable for decisions i

284
00:18:14,409 --> 00:18:19,728
made that i in hindsight would have made differently and for outcomes or rather lack of

285
00:18:19,728 --> 00:18:27,769
outcomes so i i would say you know i'm not i'm not trying to justify anything it is what it is

286
00:18:27,769 --> 00:18:34,149
um but i i hold myself to i'm not i'm not afraid to be wrong i'm not afraid to be wrong i'm not

287
00:18:34,149 --> 00:18:40,849
afraid to fail in public. I'm not afraid to prioritize integrity and truth and principles

288
00:18:40,849 --> 00:18:50,809
over money and fame. And I think it's important. And I think it was important for me to learn that

289
00:18:50,809 --> 00:18:56,008
through experience and like be tested to the fire. Because you say things like some things aren't for

290
00:18:56,008 --> 00:19:01,429
sale, right? Or like, you know, principles over everything or like this is what it means to be a

291
00:19:01,429 --> 00:19:08,149
Bitcoiner. And then you're offered like an unlimited amount of money and Wall Street and stuff.

292
00:19:08,468 --> 00:19:15,208
And it's like, you know, are you who you say you are? And I mean, that experience was invaluable

293
00:19:15,208 --> 00:19:20,589
as well for me. So I don't think you should think of this as like, it doesn't come across as asking

294
00:19:20,589 --> 00:19:24,169
for forgiveness, but people love you. Like people want to know what the story was and what happened.

295
00:19:24,369 --> 00:19:28,409
I think it's important that you do tell your side of the story and let people judge it however they

296
00:19:28,409 --> 00:19:37,488
Totally. I just am sensitive to, like, you know, we have a culture internally at strike.

297
00:19:38,169 --> 00:19:45,049
So this is something that I've enforced on myself and people in my life and that work with me for

298
00:19:45,049 --> 00:19:51,829
years, which is I don't believe in pointing fingers and delegating blame. And what I tell

299
00:19:51,829 --> 00:19:57,948
my employees is, say, if you come to me and I say, hey, what's going on? Why did X, Y, and Z happen?

300
00:19:58,409 --> 00:20:01,208
And you come to me and you say, well, it was that guy.

301
00:20:01,208 --> 00:20:03,289
I tell everyone, don't do that.

302
00:20:03,748 --> 00:20:07,349
Because what you just told me is that guy determines the outcomes.

303
00:20:07,889 --> 00:20:09,349
That guy determines fate.

304
00:20:10,049 --> 00:20:12,089
That guy is truly responsible.

305
00:20:12,789 --> 00:20:14,549
So then I'm going to ask, why are you here?

306
00:20:15,769 --> 00:20:17,409
You must not be that important.

307
00:20:19,188 --> 00:20:23,029
And this gets into a deeper philosophical idea of like,

308
00:20:24,208 --> 00:20:27,089
to be sovereign is to own your destiny.

309
00:20:27,089 --> 00:20:31,389
to point at somebody else or to say,

310
00:20:31,389 --> 00:20:33,589
well, you know, if the Bitcoin price didn't go down

311
00:20:33,589 --> 00:20:35,329
or if only the board did this

312
00:20:35,329 --> 00:20:37,889
or if only timing was differently,

313
00:20:37,889 --> 00:20:41,349
then by proxy, I'm saying the outcomes of my life,

314
00:20:41,349 --> 00:20:44,188
my success, my future, my contributions,

315
00:20:44,188 --> 00:20:46,428
the relationships I hold with the public market

316
00:20:46,428 --> 00:20:48,149
or with Bitcoiners or with my customers

317
00:20:48,149 --> 00:20:49,968
isn't truly up to me.

318
00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:53,371
I feel like that's a very weak position to hold.

319
00:20:54,151 --> 00:20:57,571
And so I only come from it from a stance of,

320
00:20:57,871 --> 00:21:00,131
I own my outcomes.

321
00:21:00,231 --> 00:21:01,451
The buck stops here.

322
00:21:02,471 --> 00:21:06,371
My high school coach had a very lasting impression on me,

323
00:21:06,391 --> 00:21:07,151
high school basketball.

324
00:21:07,911 --> 00:21:13,331
And he said, you know, a great leader gives credit when we win.

325
00:21:13,711 --> 00:21:15,271
When we win, it's all about the players

326
00:21:15,271 --> 00:21:16,811
and the plays you guys made

327
00:21:16,811 --> 00:21:18,731
and the hustle you showed on defense.

328
00:21:18,731 --> 00:21:20,891
It's when we lose, it's my fault.

329
00:21:21,111 --> 00:21:22,151
And that's ownership.

330
00:21:22,331 --> 00:21:22,931
That's integrity.

331
00:21:23,071 --> 00:21:23,851
That's leadership.

332
00:21:24,371 --> 00:21:25,671
And so that's what I mean.

333
00:21:26,551 --> 00:21:29,391
You know, I think it's really important to say, like, hand up.

334
00:21:30,031 --> 00:21:31,031
Like, I tried a thing.

335
00:21:31,291 --> 00:21:32,251
I did it in public.

336
00:21:33,211 --> 00:21:34,531
And it didn't go the way I wanted.

337
00:21:34,671 --> 00:21:35,911
And I know that impacts people.

338
00:21:36,311 --> 00:21:37,711
And I know people are going to want an explanation.

339
00:21:37,911 --> 00:21:40,931
And I know people are going to want me to own it and say sorry.

340
00:21:41,111 --> 00:21:41,771
And I do.

341
00:21:41,951 --> 00:21:43,031
I do not point fingers.

342
00:21:43,151 --> 00:21:44,171
I do not cast blame.

343
00:21:44,531 --> 00:21:45,151
I never have.

344
00:21:45,211 --> 00:21:45,631
I never will.

345
00:21:45,631 --> 00:21:46,391
I don't believe in that.

346
00:21:46,391 --> 00:21:52,031
So is that part of the problem in strike? Like you're the dictator essentially, right? Like

347
00:21:52,031 --> 00:21:57,011
whatever you say goes. And then with 21, you're working under a board and it doesn't like, you

348
00:21:57,011 --> 00:22:01,871
can say the book stops with you, but does it actually like, do you have enough control to do

349
00:22:01,871 --> 00:22:05,751
what you want to do? Yeah, no 20, I mean, 21 and strike are not apples to apples comparisons.

350
00:22:05,751 --> 00:22:13,211
Cause yeah, uh, 21, I could, I could not make decisions on my own and you know, to an extent,

351
00:22:13,211 --> 00:22:20,111
right like i named the thing but if the board disagreed with my name then yeah i wouldn't have

352
00:22:20,111 --> 00:22:26,491
been able so there was no unequivocal whatever jack the direction jack needs to take and so that's

353
00:22:26,491 --> 00:22:31,731
you know why we would have a very clear vision and very clear steps that we wanted to take but

354
00:22:31,731 --> 00:22:37,571
we seemingly couldn't get it done and couldn't get execution across the line and that's because

355
00:22:37,571 --> 00:22:46,531
at the end of the day, there was a disagreement. And I mean, obviously, I won't go too much into

356
00:22:46,531 --> 00:22:50,711
the whole SoftBank chapter, but obviously there was disagreement there too at some point.

357
00:22:51,431 --> 00:22:56,571
And so at the top, you need to have unified vision. People need to be working in lockstep.

358
00:22:56,931 --> 00:23:04,111
And that's ultimately too, when I realized like, if this isn't something that I set out to build

359
00:23:04,111 --> 00:23:06,051
and want to build and believe in building,

360
00:23:06,171 --> 00:23:07,571
then I shouldn't lead it.

361
00:23:08,091 --> 00:23:12,631
And I don't even have the fiber

362
00:23:12,631 --> 00:23:14,671
and the bones in my body to do that.

363
00:23:15,691 --> 00:23:16,931
So yeah, with Strike,

364
00:23:17,551 --> 00:23:21,851
I mean, I am the founder, the CEO, the chairman,

365
00:23:22,051 --> 00:23:24,271
all of the useless titles that are casted,

366
00:23:24,331 --> 00:23:25,191
like I'm all of them.

367
00:23:26,071 --> 00:23:28,391
When I want to do something, we do it.

368
00:23:28,391 --> 00:23:30,571
When I want to stop doing something, we don't.

369
00:23:31,231 --> 00:23:33,191
And if you're not okay with that,

370
00:23:33,191 --> 00:23:38,591
then you're fired. And that's how it goes. Bitcoin is very decentralized. Strike is not.

371
00:23:39,251 --> 00:23:44,951
And that's why Strike, I think, ships at an incredible pace, achieves what it can,

372
00:23:45,011 --> 00:23:51,491
is very unified in what it's here to do, what its plans are, when it needs critical decisions,

373
00:23:51,871 --> 00:23:55,491
like we know how to make them. So yeah, it's just very different, very different companies.

374
00:23:56,351 --> 00:23:59,831
From your public comments, I was getting the impression, and tell me if this is wrong,

375
00:23:59,831 --> 00:24:00,731
because it could totally be wrong.

376
00:24:00,771 --> 00:24:01,971
But I was getting the impression

377
00:24:01,971 --> 00:24:05,011
that you were not very into the sort of

378
00:24:05,011 --> 00:24:07,171
more pure play Bitcoin treasury company

379
00:24:07,171 --> 00:24:08,151
for lack of a better word.

380
00:24:08,271 --> 00:24:10,351
And that like the idea of just issuing

381
00:24:10,351 --> 00:24:11,691
perpetual preferred equity

382
00:24:11,691 --> 00:24:12,391
wasn't going to be something

383
00:24:12,391 --> 00:24:13,551
that maybe you wanted to do.

384
00:24:14,211 --> 00:24:15,951
Was that part of this sort of disagreement

385
00:24:15,951 --> 00:24:17,671
with the direction of the company

386
00:24:17,671 --> 00:24:19,111
that caused this?

387
00:24:19,891 --> 00:24:22,211
Because I understand the drive

388
00:24:22,211 --> 00:24:23,291
to want to do something like that

389
00:24:23,291 --> 00:24:24,431
when you sat on so much Bitcoin

390
00:24:24,431 --> 00:24:26,411
and like I know Stretch and Sator

391
00:24:26,411 --> 00:24:27,391
have been having a tough time,

392
00:24:27,451 --> 00:24:29,131
but I'm sure they're going to be successful products.

393
00:24:29,831 --> 00:24:34,611
So I mentioned earlier, I don't know when we hit record, but I think I'd mentioned earlier,

394
00:24:35,131 --> 00:24:38,051
I don't want to talk on behalf of 21.

395
00:24:38,211 --> 00:24:38,371
Yeah.

396
00:24:38,371 --> 00:24:40,611
One, because I probably am not allowed to.

397
00:24:40,791 --> 00:24:44,031
I know I'm no longer interested in asking lawyers because I don't have to.

398
00:24:44,631 --> 00:24:46,451
But I know I'm probably not allowed to.

399
00:24:46,691 --> 00:24:48,631
But the other is because I shouldn't.

400
00:24:48,831 --> 00:24:49,791
I don't run.

401
00:24:49,991 --> 00:24:53,751
So what has the day in the life of working at 21 today?

402
00:24:53,971 --> 00:24:55,311
What decisions did they make?

403
00:24:55,431 --> 00:24:56,231
What's their roadmap?

404
00:24:56,531 --> 00:24:57,131
I wasn't there.

405
00:24:57,771 --> 00:24:59,671
And so that's just being a dick.

406
00:24:59,831 --> 00:25:05,151
If I were to sit here and try and convince you, it's not my business, it's not my responsibility,

407
00:25:05,891 --> 00:25:07,271
and there are great people there.

408
00:25:07,271 --> 00:25:09,831
And like I said, these are my friends, and I believe in them.

409
00:25:09,911 --> 00:25:14,271
Just because we have a disagreement on, you can look at an opportunity and arrive at different

410
00:25:14,271 --> 00:25:16,191
ways to attack it and build toward it.

411
00:25:16,311 --> 00:25:18,151
It doesn't make someone a bad person.

412
00:25:18,371 --> 00:25:24,331
And so I feel as a man, I should respect their right to build their thing.

413
00:25:24,591 --> 00:25:27,811
Because at the end of the day, it clearly was not my thing.

414
00:25:28,051 --> 00:25:28,751
It's their thing.

415
00:25:28,751 --> 00:25:32,951
and they should build it. So I'm not going to speak on what they're going to do. I don't know.

416
00:25:33,131 --> 00:25:38,531
Maybe they changed all of their minds again today and I have no idea. I do think though,

417
00:25:38,651 --> 00:25:44,631
I finally get to say that the questions that I had for Michael Saylor and the related industry

418
00:25:44,631 --> 00:25:51,351
that felt they were, you know, needed to answer the questions I was asking had nothing to do with

419
00:25:51,351 --> 00:26:08,268
me being the CEO of 21 like at all I still have those questions In fact I think in hindsight they were good questions because the definitions have changed And STRC did dislocate from 100 And that doesn make these products bad

420
00:26:08,328 --> 00:26:09,388
It doesn't make Michael bad,

421
00:26:09,828 --> 00:26:11,788
but it makes my questions were reasonable.

422
00:26:12,428 --> 00:26:15,528
And yeah, no, you're accurate in saying

423
00:26:15,528 --> 00:26:21,328
I still don't totally understand a lot of that space.

424
00:26:21,948 --> 00:26:25,048
And I'd be hard pressed for someone to tell me that they do

425
00:26:25,048 --> 00:26:31,168
because it feels very much like engineering the plane while you're flying it, which is fine.

426
00:26:31,568 --> 00:26:36,728
That's business, that's startup, that's problem solving. You know, I think when people say like,

427
00:26:36,728 --> 00:26:42,148
I've planned the next five years. No, you haven't. You haven't. It's such a meaningless exercise.

428
00:26:43,008 --> 00:26:46,548
And so that's all of that is fine. But also like as a Bitcoiner,

429
00:26:46,548 --> 00:26:54,988
I'm gonna, we can, we can, we can acknowledge, you know, these things. And so, yeah, I, I do,

430
00:26:55,088 --> 00:26:59,788
I mean, the strategy has changed a bunch. The metrics have changed a bunch. The guidance has

431
00:26:59,788 --> 00:27:03,628
changed. I mean, everything's been changing. And so having questions, I still don't totally

432
00:27:03,628 --> 00:27:07,788
understand how it's going to work, how it's going to play out, how sustainable all of it is, but

433
00:27:07,788 --> 00:27:12,848
whatever. Um, I'm also like, not like king of the jungle and the smartest person ever. So,

434
00:27:12,848 --> 00:27:14,488
So, you know, I can miss things.

435
00:27:14,908 --> 00:27:16,448
As someone who's also been on the receiving end

436
00:27:16,448 --> 00:27:19,128
of the Twitter treasury company mob for asking questions,

437
00:27:19,208 --> 00:27:20,288
I think your questions were valid.

438
00:27:20,428 --> 00:27:21,668
Like, I think we should be able to ask questions.

439
00:27:21,768 --> 00:27:22,628
We should ask everything.

440
00:27:24,028 --> 00:27:25,088
What would you have done differently?

441
00:27:25,508 --> 00:27:27,988
Like, I know that's very easy with sort of 2020 hindsight

442
00:27:27,988 --> 00:27:29,168
to pick at the moment,

443
00:27:29,388 --> 00:27:31,408
but is there any one thing that sticks out

444
00:27:31,408 --> 00:27:32,748
that you wish you'd not done?

445
00:27:38,748 --> 00:27:39,988
I think...

446
00:27:39,988 --> 00:27:49,048
the level of expectation that I set publicly,

447
00:27:50,048 --> 00:27:53,088
in hindsight, should have been much more measured.

448
00:27:54,428 --> 00:27:57,608
I'd never experienced Wall Street.

449
00:27:57,948 --> 00:28:00,448
I'd never been a part of a board

450
00:28:00,448 --> 00:28:05,808
where I ultimately couldn't act decisively

451
00:28:05,808 --> 00:28:07,988
when I felt convicted.

452
00:28:07,988 --> 00:28:16,368
I had never been part of a public company. And so I think, you know, I think fundamentally that

453
00:28:16,368 --> 00:28:26,088
optimists define the future. I think it's so artistic almost that going long something pays

454
00:28:26,088 --> 00:28:32,528
way more than going short something. You can never make more than, you know, 100% going short or

455
00:28:32,528 --> 00:28:37,768
whatever, right? Like you, you can, you get paid way more for being an optimist. Um, people that

456
00:28:37,768 --> 00:28:44,188
believe, see the glass half full, you know, are passionate and full of energy about the future

457
00:28:44,188 --> 00:28:50,968
are the ones that define it and build it rather than the one. So it's, you know, it's part of my

458
00:28:50,968 --> 00:28:58,468
personality. It's part of being a leader, but in hindsight, um, I think I, I was, I did not do the

459
00:28:58,468 --> 00:29:06,048
best job at managing expectations when it became this web between shareholders and the board. And

460
00:29:06,048 --> 00:29:13,588
because my ability to take conversations about a unified vision and dispel them into expectations

461
00:29:13,588 --> 00:29:19,128
and conviction to the public, only to realize that following through on that was harder than

462
00:29:19,128 --> 00:29:25,108
it has historically been in my career at Strike, I regret that. I did not mean to

463
00:29:25,108 --> 00:29:30,868
set an expectation about what this thing was going to become while I was leading it without,

464
00:29:30,988 --> 00:29:34,928
you know, fully appreciating what it was going to take for me to follow through on that.

465
00:29:35,428 --> 00:29:42,008
And that's where I own that because I know that people believe in me, believed in me,

466
00:29:42,008 --> 00:29:50,088
and specifically as the leader of this thing. And probably, and I know just from being on the

467
00:29:50,088 --> 00:29:55,368
internet and seeing the comments, like feel let down in that way that they heard me say things

468
00:29:55,368 --> 00:30:01,328
and set expectations and didn't see the follow through there and, and, uh, feel as if I was

469
00:30:01,328 --> 00:30:07,208
misleading or, or if I, um, yeah. So that, that, that was, that's probably the biggest, the biggest

470
00:30:07,208 --> 00:30:11,008
one. And of course, like throughout the whole thing, there's tinier ones, but that's probably,

471
00:30:11,008 --> 00:30:18,108
um, the biggest one. Cause we did, I mean, we did accomplish stuff and we were on our way. Um,

472
00:30:18,108 --> 00:30:21,228
And 21 can still go on to accomplish great things

473
00:30:21,228 --> 00:30:22,928
and be something meaningful for Bitcoin

474
00:30:22,928 --> 00:30:26,148
and return a lot of investment capital for shareholders.

475
00:30:27,368 --> 00:30:31,468
But my lack of ability to achieve what I said I would

476
00:30:31,468 --> 00:30:33,348
and what I wanted to while I was there,

477
00:30:35,328 --> 00:30:39,548
in hindsight, I would have managed that differently.

478
00:30:40,008 --> 00:30:41,868
So it's very hard for, I think,

479
00:30:42,028 --> 00:30:43,428
probably almost everyone listening

480
00:30:43,428 --> 00:30:44,928
to imagine the pressure that you were under

481
00:30:44,928 --> 00:30:45,648
while you did this.

482
00:30:45,988 --> 00:30:47,688
I have no context of it.

483
00:30:47,688 --> 00:30:49,268
I have no idea what it's like working on Wall Street.

484
00:30:49,268 --> 00:30:51,468
Like this is a new thing for you as well, right?

485
00:30:52,148 --> 00:30:55,908
I'm sure you've learned a ton about yourself, about business.

486
00:30:56,528 --> 00:30:58,948
But does any part of you regret ever doing it?

487
00:30:59,768 --> 00:31:01,508
No, I don't believe.

488
00:31:01,908 --> 00:31:03,108
I also don't believe in that.

489
00:31:04,048 --> 00:31:05,988
I don't believe, you know,

490
00:31:07,008 --> 00:31:23,804
I tell you a story about the last bear market in 2022 So for people that don know in 2022 this was the Bitcoin conference that directly followed the El Salvador announcement that I made

491
00:31:24,344 --> 00:31:29,664
There's lots of pressure, expectations, and Strike was a tiny little child baby.

492
00:31:29,844 --> 00:31:34,344
I think we released like a beta in the App Store in 2021, right?

493
00:31:34,344 --> 00:31:35,584
So pre-revenue.

494
00:31:36,464 --> 00:31:42,804
And mind you, after El Salvador and Bitcoin was in this craze bull run, like the bull run,

495
00:31:42,944 --> 00:31:47,304
I'm putting it in air quotes for the podcast listeners that we experienced in 2025, to me

496
00:31:47,304 --> 00:31:48,144
was not real.

497
00:31:48,524 --> 00:31:52,184
We didn't hit all-time highs in gold terms.

498
00:31:52,664 --> 00:31:56,644
It was not an actual, like 2021 was the last bull run in my mind.

499
00:31:56,644 --> 00:32:11,404
And I was surrounded by professional athletes, superstar artists, the top VC firms, and everyone was inviting me to parties and giving me investment capital.

500
00:32:11,844 --> 00:32:17,324
I had no idea that I needed to generate revenue, turn a profit someday.

501
00:32:17,324 --> 00:32:25,564
I literally, I was a kid and I thought that all I had to do was champion Bitcoin and like build

502
00:32:25,564 --> 00:32:31,304
stuff that like was popular and people I thought were downloading it, but I didn't even know

503
00:32:31,304 --> 00:32:36,824
and run around and like make sure that like the orange pill message was getting through.

504
00:32:36,964 --> 00:32:43,024
And like, I don't like, don't VCs fund the payroll. I had no idea. And we had worked on

505
00:32:43,024 --> 00:32:48,204
some partnerships that were in the very early stages with some merchant vendors. And I got out

506
00:32:48,204 --> 00:32:53,924
on the Bitcoin conference and I laid out the vision that I had and how we were going to,

507
00:32:54,064 --> 00:32:58,044
through these partnerships, get Bitcoin accepted pretty much throughout the United States.

508
00:32:59,004 --> 00:33:05,244
Now, fast forward, the Fed hiked rates faster than they ever had. The bull market turned into

509
00:33:05,244 --> 00:33:11,704
a bear market. Every vendor partnerships, R&D, crypto department got fired. Our partnerships fell

510
00:33:11,704 --> 00:33:19,804
through. None of it ever met the market. And strike almost failed because all of the VC money

511
00:33:19,804 --> 00:33:25,624
that was like around and like, here, take this, take this, like disappeared. And like, you didn't

512
00:33:25,624 --> 00:33:34,904
have any revenue. You didn't have anything. And that was one of the most painful times in my life.

513
00:33:35,284 --> 00:33:41,244
Feel abandoned. You feel used. You feel angry. You feel depressed. And like lots of finger

514
00:33:41,244 --> 00:33:44,724
point like why well why did this person tell me this or why did this person convince me the world

515
00:33:44,724 --> 00:33:51,404
worked that way and then it was that moment where i acquired some of the most valuable lessons i've

516
00:33:51,404 --> 00:34:00,844
ever acquired in my life like about ego about who i am as a man what i care about what strike should

517
00:34:00,844 --> 00:34:08,404
be about business about about everything now strike turns out to be a very successful thing

518
00:34:08,404 --> 00:34:16,364
very profitable now, big company. Now, what I tell myself and what I tell my employees all the time

519
00:34:16,364 --> 00:34:21,604
is how expensive were the lessons that I acquired in that moment? Think about that in hindsight.

520
00:34:22,164 --> 00:34:26,044
And that goes back to what I wrote in the essay, what punishments are not gifts?

521
00:34:27,484 --> 00:34:37,104
Because I acquired a wealth of knowledge, experience, really, really painful, but valuable

522
00:34:37,104 --> 00:34:44,584
tutorial of how to build things, who to trust, how to set up strike. I acquired that, Danny.

523
00:34:44,584 --> 00:34:51,924
I didn't lose a limb. I didn't lose my parents. I didn't lose my business. I didn't lose my

524
00:34:51,924 --> 00:35:01,664
friends. I didn't lose any Bitcoins. I just took a couple of really tough punches to the ego and

525
00:35:01,664 --> 00:35:08,384
needed to adopt a decent amount of humility and just emotional pain.

526
00:35:10,124 --> 00:35:21,144
And so, I don't know, that chapter of my life was very hard. Like, oh, Jack is a hype marketing,

527
00:35:21,444 --> 00:35:28,744
over-promising, you know, all of the things. And, you know, some of those things hurt because you

528
00:35:28,744 --> 00:35:33,784
starts to question like, is that true? But then once you, once you stay the course and you see

529
00:35:33,784 --> 00:35:37,844
the other side, you realize like things that you mistake for punishments are really just gifts.

530
00:35:38,044 --> 00:35:43,224
The world had to teach me a lot if I wanted to become the man that I am now.

531
00:35:44,144 --> 00:35:50,284
And how else would I have acquired what I needed to acquire if it wasn't then? And if it wasn't that

532
00:35:50,284 --> 00:35:56,404
I could have, it could have been a lot worse or I could have never acquired it at all.

533
00:35:56,784 --> 00:35:58,684
Yeah. You only get those lessons from putting yourself out there.

534
00:35:58,744 --> 00:36:03,484
Yeah, and you have to pay for the lessons.

535
00:36:03,744 --> 00:36:08,544
This goes to Bitcoin Austrian theory of there's no free lunch.

536
00:36:08,644 --> 00:36:10,124
You can't print the money out of thin air.

537
00:36:10,184 --> 00:36:11,864
You can't print the lessons out of thin air.

538
00:36:12,584 --> 00:36:14,924
What's the tuition fee?

539
00:36:15,364 --> 00:36:17,424
What's the cost of the education?

540
00:36:18,224 --> 00:36:33,980
And so anyway I want to be a good man I want to be a good eventually husband and dad and colleague and Bitcoiner So I don regret any of these things And I think people spend too much time honestly being depressed

541
00:36:33,980 --> 00:36:40,420
and wallowing about the past. You can't change the past. And so I do not regret it. You know,

542
00:36:40,460 --> 00:36:48,660
what punishments are not gifts. My intentions were real. What we built was real. I mean,

543
00:36:48,660 --> 00:36:51,860
It's not like, oh, just kidding.

544
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:53,100
The Bitcoin's not there.

545
00:36:53,300 --> 00:36:53,980
It's there.

546
00:36:54,300 --> 00:36:56,020
It's a stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

547
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:57,820
It gets quarterly audits by the public markets.

548
00:36:57,980 --> 00:36:59,460
It's a very legit thing.

549
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,180
And I tried to do a thing.

550
00:37:02,180 --> 00:37:07,060
And the universe needed me to learn a lot about myself

551
00:37:07,060 --> 00:37:09,180
and about being a Bitcoiner

552
00:37:09,180 --> 00:37:12,360
and about being a man and integrity and humility and ego.

553
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,820
And so I appreciate the lessons.

554
00:37:16,820 --> 00:37:19,160
and I'm very fortunate and grateful

555
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,040
that they didn't cost me, you know,

556
00:37:22,060 --> 00:37:25,260
my relationship with my fiance or my health, right?

557
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,720
So I don't know if that resonates at all, but-

558
00:37:27,720 --> 00:37:28,000
Totally.

559
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:32,920
I just don't believe in, yeah,

560
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:36,200
regretting any part of the past.

561
00:37:36,340 --> 00:37:37,680
Like what punishments are not gifts?

562
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,140
I fundamentally believe that.

563
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,200
Every Bitcoiner eventually has to answer one question.

564
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:43,460
If something happened to me,

565
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:44,840
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566
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,220
Could my wife or parents recover my Bitcoin?

567
00:37:47,700 --> 00:37:50,420
And would my children inherit the Bitcoin I spent years stacking?

568
00:37:51,020 --> 00:37:55,440
That's where AnchorWatch builds Bitcoin custody models to protect you and your family against real life.

569
00:37:55,860 --> 00:37:59,120
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570
00:37:59,820 --> 00:38:03,000
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571
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:07,260
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572
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573
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574
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575
00:38:18,500 --> 00:38:21,580
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576
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,220
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577
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578
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579
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580
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581
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582
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583
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584
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586
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587
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588
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589
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590
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591
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592
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593
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594
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595
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596
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597
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598
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599
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600
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601
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602
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603
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604
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605
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606
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607
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608
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609
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610
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,240
So when I first heard about this news, like I said, I was at Odell's house

611
00:40:08,240 --> 00:40:09,640
and he had a call with you that day.

612
00:40:10,100 --> 00:40:13,000
And when he got off the call, I was like, how is he?

613
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,580
Because I had no idea how he would be taking this news.

614
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:18,580
Because I think one of the reasons that people like you so much

615
00:40:18,580 --> 00:40:20,760
in the Bitcoin world is because you are very authentic.

616
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,300
You do wear your emotions on a sleeve.

617
00:40:22,380 --> 00:40:23,960
I was like, how is he going to be handling this?

618
00:40:24,700 --> 00:40:26,960
And Odell was just like, he seems great.

619
00:40:27,700 --> 00:40:29,140
Do you feel like a weight off your shoulders,

620
00:40:29,140 --> 00:40:33,040
like you're ready to go again on, you know, well, obviously keep going on strike, but just move

621
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:45,800
forward. Yes. Um, because I have, um, me and I have Bitcoin and that's all that like, it's like,

622
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:52,460
you don't want to say that's all that mattered. Cause of course, like it kills me that I, I

623
00:40:52,460 --> 00:41:01,120
started this thing which uh is my baby in some ways like i created the logo and i branded it and

624
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:05,500
i like registered the domain name like when i was transferring myself out of the business

625
00:41:05,500 --> 00:41:10,620
like i realized i still personally owned the domain you know you forget to like transfer it

626
00:41:10,620 --> 00:41:16,920
corporate accounts i'm like man so um of course i this is not how i wanted the my chapter with

627
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:23,100
the business to end. But obviously when I was presented with whatever it was going to be,

628
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:29,380
money and fame and access and all this stuff, like I found myself saying no before I can even

629
00:41:29,380 --> 00:41:36,100
reason it out and fully understand it. I just had like a physical, almost like repulsive reaction

630
00:41:36,100 --> 00:41:39,960
to leading something and promoting something.

631
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:46,337
thing. And the other thing, too, is like, I just, Danny, I would not be able to look you in the eye

632
00:41:46,337 --> 00:41:51,097
or look my employees in the eye or look Bitcoiners in the eye or my customers in the eye or my

633
00:41:51,097 --> 00:42:01,537
investors in the eye if I knew they weren't ultimately entrusting in me. And so, yeah, I have

634
00:42:01,537 --> 00:42:09,777
me and I have strike and I have Bitcoin. And in many ways, that's all not only I've ever needed,

635
00:42:09,897 --> 00:42:15,477
but all Bitcoiners have ever wanted out of me. It was another really endearing and valuable

636
00:42:15,477 --> 00:42:20,517
experience is the emails and the texts and the notes I've been getting both before and after the

637
00:42:20,517 --> 00:42:29,637
resignation was public of just like who a lot of people view me as in the community of just

638
00:42:29,637 --> 00:42:37,397
someone who would never sell out, who would never compromise on their ideals and their principles,

639
00:42:37,397 --> 00:42:45,957
who people entrust to hold the integrity of Bitcoin as a leader and as a CEO and as a person.

640
00:42:46,937 --> 00:42:56,617
And yeah, so I feel I'm very excited to be able to do things my way. And that's the other thing,

641
00:42:56,617 --> 00:43:03,457
too. I don't know how big strike can be. I think, I mean, for a business that what, five, six years

642
00:43:03,457 --> 00:43:10,237
old, depending on where you count, I'm thrilled. I mean, we've got, we're in 50% off highs and we've

643
00:43:10,237 --> 00:43:14,657
got over a hundred million dollars of Bitcoin. So what we make a new all-time high. I've got

644
00:43:14,657 --> 00:43:18,657
probably less than a hundred employees, a quarter billion dollars on the balance sheet.

645
00:43:18,657 --> 00:43:26,297
We produce cashflow and we're still, I mean, growing as Bitcoin grows, we'll grow. Like I'm

646
00:43:26,297 --> 00:43:30,657
thrilled with that. But are we going to own the most Bitcoin? Are we going to be the cover of

647
00:43:30,657 --> 00:43:37,117
magazines? Maybe one day. I don't know. I'm bullish. I'd like to think Strike will continue

648
00:43:37,117 --> 00:43:44,897
to grow into a valuable institution within the revolution that is Bitcoin. But I guess it will be

649
00:43:44,897 --> 00:43:53,317
a side effect of what actually matters, which is like, I want to build what I believe in.

650
00:43:53,317 --> 00:43:59,297
i want to build for people that believe in the things that i do i want to build for bitcoiners

651
00:43:59,297 --> 00:44:04,557
i want to build a company that i want to work for i want to build products that i would actually use

652
00:44:04,557 --> 00:44:11,837
um and that's what nothing that's okay and if strike is just like a hobbyist

653
00:44:11,837 --> 00:44:15,817
business you know as long as we're able to pay our own bills like i'm cool with that

654
00:44:15,817 --> 00:44:20,297
you know like i like here's another thing it does 250 million on the balance sheet count

655
00:44:20,297 --> 00:44:27,257
as a hobbyist business i don't think so no no but but um you know i was talking to my fiance again

656
00:44:27,257 --> 00:44:33,117
who by the way like superstar um people ever run into her at conferences she deserves a lot of

657
00:44:33,117 --> 00:44:39,357
credit for helping me weather all this stuff that's my my partner and i was talking to her

658
00:44:39,357 --> 00:44:46,257
and i was just obviously sad and angry and ranting and i'm like you know people say

659
00:44:46,257 --> 00:44:48,037
oh, it's early in Bitcoin.

660
00:44:49,357 --> 00:44:51,957
We're only at like 1% of global adoption.

661
00:44:52,417 --> 00:44:53,977
I was telling her, that's not true.

662
00:44:54,157 --> 00:44:55,397
Like we're not even at 1%.

663
00:44:55,397 --> 00:44:58,337
What's that, 85 million?

664
00:44:58,697 --> 00:45:00,657
Yeah, 85 million people have a vague

665
00:45:00,657 --> 00:45:02,297
relative understanding of Bitcoin.

666
00:45:02,397 --> 00:45:02,537
Nope.

667
00:45:03,017 --> 00:45:05,237
Not even know, not even close.

668
00:45:05,897 --> 00:45:06,957
And I would wage to say,

669
00:45:07,097 --> 00:45:08,797
we're not even at 8.5 million.

670
00:45:09,217 --> 00:45:11,957
I'm not even sure we're at 850,000.

671
00:45:12,137 --> 00:45:13,717
See, I had this conversation with Checkmate

672
00:45:13,717 --> 00:45:14,257
a long time ago.

673
00:45:14,257 --> 00:45:15,537
I don't know if it was on a podcast

674
00:45:15,537 --> 00:45:16,317
or we were just chatting.

675
00:45:16,917 --> 00:45:19,317
I think it's a way lower number than people think.

676
00:45:19,457 --> 00:45:20,877
And it really is very hard.

677
00:45:20,957 --> 00:45:24,997
It depends how you define what someone who understands Bitcoin is.

678
00:45:25,137 --> 00:45:28,617
But if you just use the metrics that you can see,

679
00:45:28,917 --> 00:45:31,937
I think there's something like 25 million addresses

680
00:45:31,937 --> 00:45:33,217
with more than $100 of Bitcoin.

681
00:45:33,917 --> 00:45:36,317
And as you know, people will own...

682
00:45:36,877 --> 00:45:39,377
If you've been DCAing for five years

683
00:45:39,377 --> 00:45:41,577
at more than $100 a month,

684
00:45:41,637 --> 00:45:43,017
you'll own more than 60 of them yourself.

685
00:45:43,017 --> 00:45:49,217
So I think if you count owning self-custody Bitcoin as understanding Bitcoin, it's probably like less than 5 million.

686
00:45:49,817 --> 00:45:50,717
Oh, yeah, for sure.

687
00:45:51,217 --> 00:45:52,817
Well, yeah, and it depends on your definition, right?

688
00:45:52,857 --> 00:46:02,117
Like some people will say, well, you know, this person's got proxied, proxied, proxied, proxied exposure in their proxied 401k that's proxied by the BlackRock ETF or whatever.

689
00:46:02,497 --> 00:46:03,997
And so they technically have exposure.

690
00:46:04,257 --> 00:46:07,257
But that's not how I would consider adoption.

691
00:46:07,257 --> 00:46:09,077
I find that, frankly, meaningless.

692
00:46:09,217 --> 00:46:11,297
Because if some money manager flips a switch,

693
00:46:11,417 --> 00:46:13,157
now all of a sudden they're unadopted.

694
00:46:13,397 --> 00:46:14,337
I consider it adopted.

695
00:46:14,897 --> 00:46:16,217
You understand what money is.

696
00:46:16,277 --> 00:46:17,577
You understand why it's valuable.

697
00:46:17,697 --> 00:46:21,477
You understand what this whole thing is supposed to do.

698
00:46:22,237 --> 00:46:23,417
Even vaguely.

699
00:46:23,857 --> 00:46:26,517
And whether you want to own the ETF or real Bitcoin,

700
00:46:26,857 --> 00:46:27,737
that part's irrelevant.

701
00:46:28,017 --> 00:46:30,757
But it's adopted in a way that's meaningful

702
00:46:30,757 --> 00:46:33,157
and that you get it.

703
00:46:33,157 --> 00:46:42,497
um i and anyways i'm uh ranting and complaining to my fiance and she makes this point of like

704
00:46:42,497 --> 00:47:02,080
well why don you do something about it and it was one of those moments where i was like you right Because she like well it doesn sound like Coinbase is educating people in the way that you want And it doesn sound like you know these treasury companies are educating people in the way that you want

705
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:03,420
So, like, why don't you do it?

706
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:08,300
I'm like, well, you know, like, you know, that's not Wall Street and, you know, the business.

707
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:09,520
And she's like, but why do you care?

708
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:14,560
Like, that doesn't seem like that's what it's about and what you're about and what, like, this means to you.

709
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,220
and to all the people because it was a very endearing,

710
00:47:18,620 --> 00:47:21,120
so right in the middle of like a lot of this

711
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,500
and was going through like a decently tough time,

712
00:47:24,220 --> 00:47:26,920
we were touring wedding venues, my fiance and I.

713
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,280
So it was really like a weird time, right?

714
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,220
Because in my professional life, I'm like, oh my goodness,

715
00:47:32,540 --> 00:47:35,1000
I shouldn't be leading this thing

716
00:47:35,1000 --> 00:47:39,080
that has diverged from what I wanted to build.

717
00:47:39,1000 --> 00:47:42,140
But then you go on a wedding tour and you're like,

718
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:43,100
this is where I say I do

719
00:47:43,100 --> 00:47:44,680
and this is where my family's going to start.

720
00:47:44,980 --> 00:47:46,980
And like, you know, hey, you want a glass of champagne?

721
00:47:47,100 --> 00:47:47,900
I'm like, I guess.

722
00:47:48,500 --> 00:47:51,860
I mean, sure, I feel guilty drinking this.

723
00:47:53,180 --> 00:47:57,600
And we kept, it was almost,

724
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,640
it had to have been like fate or something.

725
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,580
Every day, multiple times, people come running up,

726
00:48:04,100 --> 00:48:04,860
say, are you Jack?

727
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:07,920
Yeah, sorry, I'm going to, you know,

728
00:48:08,540 --> 00:48:10,080
I don't want to take away from my fiance.

729
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:11,860
She had enough of the Bitcoin stuff.

730
00:48:11,940 --> 00:48:12,660
She wants to get married.

731
00:48:13,100 --> 00:48:21,440
And like, oh, no, I just I need to tell you you're the reason I understand Bitcoin and or you're the reason my dad finally got it.

732
00:48:21,620 --> 00:48:31,420
Or the keynote you gave in Prague was like enough for me to like fully commit and like believe that there's a way out.

733
00:48:31,540 --> 00:48:33,660
And that or or I don't feel alone.

734
00:48:33,780 --> 00:48:37,740
Like you distilling these ideas makes me realize that it's not me.

735
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:38,880
I'm not a weirdo.

736
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:39,940
I'm not fucked up.

737
00:48:39,940 --> 00:48:44,320
the world's fucked up and that like there's a community of people that are working on it

738
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:50,260
and that i could join that just by dcaing a little bit and this was happening multiple times a day

739
00:48:50,260 --> 00:48:57,380
and my fiance was sitting there watching it and she was just like dude like you you have it right

740
00:48:57,380 --> 00:49:03,780
here and like if one percent of the world is gonna like come to understand what this is all about

741
00:49:03,780 --> 00:49:09,800
like you do that and who cares like strike makes money and it's successful and like doesn't

742
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:19,1000
need to be the biggest and the wall streetist and the whatever ist like that is where you seem like

743
00:49:19,1000 --> 00:49:25,500
happy and passionate and motivated and that's also like what people have grown to appreciate

744
00:49:25,500 --> 00:49:31,1000
out of you like i don't think people need you to be this like you know thing and by the way i didn't

745
00:49:31,1000 --> 00:49:37,760
start 21 to become like a wall street conglomerate but anyway i like that was like a really like

746
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,320
touring that wedding venues. And I'm very grateful for all the Bitcoiners that stopped

747
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:46,520
and said hi and said those encouraging things. Cause, uh, yeah, my, my fiance was like, dude,

748
00:49:46,720 --> 00:49:50,960
I think you can orange bill 1% of the world. Like if anyone's going to do it, like who's going to do

749
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:58,040
it? Like you should spend some of your time, like instead of, you know, corporate cogging. Um,

750
00:49:58,420 --> 00:50:04,460
so any who, she's totally right as well. Um, like it wasn't you that got me into Bitcoin,

751
00:50:04,460 --> 00:50:07,060
but I do remember there's a couple of talks you've done at conferences,

752
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,660
especially the one you did at Madeira about the time chain

753
00:50:09,660 --> 00:50:12,660
that made me reconsider the way that Bitcoin works and rethink it.

754
00:50:12,700 --> 00:50:13,420
Like you are brilliant.

755
00:50:13,580 --> 00:50:15,720
I think that's a very good thing to have on team Bitcoin.

756
00:50:15,940 --> 00:50:16,660
Yeah. You know, it's funny.

757
00:50:17,020 --> 00:50:23,320
So another revelation is I did the Bitcoin conference

758
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,460
where I talked about, you know, Tether posts, blog posts.

759
00:50:25,540 --> 00:50:28,300
And like I said, I'm directionally aligned with the vision

760
00:50:28,300 --> 00:50:29,720
of like creating this Bitcoin thing.

761
00:50:29,780 --> 00:50:32,180
And if Strike needs to be a part of it, let's figure that out.

762
00:50:32,180 --> 00:50:38,220
and I talked about that and was supportive of the board and Tether and hey, let's go try and meet

763
00:50:38,220 --> 00:50:44,540
and figure that out. People hated it, right? People hated the talk. It's not what they think

764
00:50:44,540 --> 00:50:50,880
they're going to get from you. Exactly. So, but you got to understand, Danny, I'm not a character.

765
00:50:51,980 --> 00:51:00,140
I'm not an actor. Like what I've got to be as close to like what you see is what you actually

766
00:51:00,140 --> 00:51:03,980
Like there's no difference between the screen and like in real life.

767
00:51:04,100 --> 00:51:05,480
That's what I was saying earlier about the authenticity.

768
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:06,440
That's why people love you.

769
00:51:06,820 --> 00:51:07,220
Yeah.

770
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:08,1000
And I, and I, and I think it's not even authenticity.

771
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:10,240
I think it's also the integrity.

772
00:51:10,540 --> 00:51:10,720
Yep.

773
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:18,540
It's being able to like, look, you know, whatever, Wall Street or whatever in the eye and say,

774
00:51:18,700 --> 00:51:20,540
you know, like you point a gun at me.

775
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,640
I tell you, shoot it, shoot it.

776
00:51:23,060 --> 00:51:25,760
I'm not like, I'm not moving a muscle.

777
00:51:26,300 --> 00:51:27,500
I think it's integrity too.

778
00:51:27,500 --> 00:51:36,440
But anyway, about the keynote, my most, like the keynotes people love the most are not about my businesses or me.

779
00:51:36,580 --> 00:51:37,680
It's about Bitcoin.

780
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:51,380
And it's this revelation of like, people want me to, orange pill folks, and people want me to build tools for Bitcoiners.

781
00:51:51,380 --> 00:51:58,380
And that's where I've found like a life glitch of purpose

782
00:51:58,380 --> 00:52:11,022
and passion and like something I could do forever And that I guess why I fully full of energy and full of enthusiasm despite just like getting my ass kicked and getting punched in the mouth

783
00:52:11,082 --> 00:52:17,962
like pretty bad and failing publicly in a fairly embarrassing way is because like these revelations

784
00:52:17,962 --> 00:52:22,422
of like, I shouldn't do keynotes about, and obviously some of my employees are investors

785
00:52:22,422 --> 00:52:26,342
are like, no, no, no, you should talk about strike. And of course, like probably people,

786
00:52:26,342 --> 00:52:30,942
hopefully people support me over time by using our products.

787
00:52:31,622 --> 00:52:33,602
But yeah, that of like people saying like,

788
00:52:33,702 --> 00:52:38,642
I don't want you to talk about 21 or what,

789
00:52:38,722 --> 00:52:43,283
I want you to talk about Bitcoin and hope and this revolution

790
00:52:43,283 --> 00:52:47,542
and want you to like lead in a way.

791
00:52:47,542 --> 00:52:51,222
And that's something that you can do in like that most other business owners,

792
00:52:51,342 --> 00:52:53,842
even within the Bitcoin space can't like every,

793
00:52:53,842 --> 00:52:57,802
every keynote now is about a company at these big conferences. There's very few that are actually

794
00:52:57,802 --> 00:53:02,622
about Bitcoin and it used to only be about Bitcoin really. But if you put the CEO of Robinhood,

795
00:53:02,682 --> 00:53:06,382
I don't know, on stage at the Bitcoin conference, like he can't talk about Bitcoin like you can.

796
00:53:06,442 --> 00:53:11,182
That's like, that's a huge advantage you have. Yeah, I could. It's a, I mean, it's a very

797
00:53:11,182 --> 00:53:15,182
counterintuitive business strategy is like, don't do any marketing. Don't talk about yourself at all.

798
00:53:15,822 --> 00:53:22,642
Do right for the mission and for the vision and for everyone else. And then, you know,

799
00:53:22,642 --> 00:53:26,602
hopefully it's reciprocated back by people supporting you through product

800
00:53:26,602 --> 00:53:30,122
through using your products like you could buy bitcoin a million places

801
00:53:30,122 --> 00:53:36,242
why would you buy it here well you know we have good fees and free withdrawals and all the good

802
00:53:36,242 --> 00:53:41,502
stuff but then also like you resonate with who i am and who we are it's a it's a counterintuitive

803
00:53:41,502 --> 00:53:48,362
idea and i have no idea if it's like scientifically sound and if that's gonna work but the point is

804
00:53:48,362 --> 00:53:55,482
like, I'm okay. There was people doing all the Twitter clipping where they clip your videos

805
00:53:55,482 --> 00:54:00,082
out of context and post it for views and everyone gets in a fight. And there's a clip that goes

806
00:54:00,082 --> 00:54:05,283
viral constantly, which is like, I said, we wanted to own the most Bitcoin in the world,

807
00:54:05,742 --> 00:54:13,902
which is, of course, who doesn't, right? But it should be known, I don't need to.

808
00:54:13,902 --> 00:54:15,902
I don't need to

809
00:54:15,902 --> 00:54:19,402
the Bitcoins don't generate yield

810
00:54:19,402 --> 00:54:22,262
they don't give you any more power over the protocol

811
00:54:22,262 --> 00:54:23,962
they sit there

812
00:54:23,962 --> 00:54:25,362
and I'm not saying that

813
00:54:25,362 --> 00:54:28,342
less is more in Bitcoin

814
00:54:28,342 --> 00:54:29,662
that's certainly not the case

815
00:54:29,662 --> 00:54:31,742
especially if something finitely scarce

816
00:54:31,742 --> 00:54:32,682
more is more

817
00:54:32,682 --> 00:54:35,242
but the point is I don't need that

818
00:54:35,242 --> 00:54:38,882
and that was like one of the very painful things

819
00:54:38,882 --> 00:54:39,622
of my ego

820
00:54:39,622 --> 00:54:41,862
I see opportunities

821
00:54:41,862 --> 00:54:43,562
I have big business partners

822
00:54:43,562 --> 00:54:47,902
I can list a public equity and I can, I can, I can.

823
00:54:47,962 --> 00:54:51,622
And it was like, the ego has to die once more.

824
00:54:52,442 --> 00:54:56,122
And the integrity and the humility has to be proven.

825
00:54:56,362 --> 00:54:58,982
Because it's one thing to say, I'm not for sale

826
00:54:58,982 --> 00:55:01,182
and my principles aren't for sale.

827
00:55:01,402 --> 00:55:02,762
My voice isn't for sale.

828
00:55:02,862 --> 00:55:05,663
But it's another for someone to put a check

829
00:55:05,663 --> 00:55:09,602
in front of your face and say like, well, actually.

830
00:55:09,602 --> 00:55:17,382
and then for me to you know really feel what it means for bitcoiners around the world

831
00:55:17,382 --> 00:55:25,942
to feel inspired and and feel uh connected to me and what i represent and then you know to have the

832
00:55:25,942 --> 00:55:32,222
you know and to really like be tested to the fire in that way it's different and i learned all of

833
00:55:32,222 --> 00:55:36,922
that i was very excited like part of where i'm going to be spending more my time is content

834
00:55:36,922 --> 00:55:44,042
of just like, yeah, I don't think Coinbase is going to do a lot of like specific orange

835
00:55:44,042 --> 00:55:44,362
pilling.

836
00:55:44,502 --> 00:55:45,062
Like why?

837
00:55:45,902 --> 00:55:53,242
And I don't know if me creating tons of really well-produced videos and like commercials

838
00:55:53,242 --> 00:55:58,102
on what is money, Austrian theory, free markets.

839
00:55:58,302 --> 00:56:03,962
I don't know if that's going to make me a lot of money or make me a lot of sats per share.

840
00:56:04,142 --> 00:56:06,102
I don't know, but I don't care.

841
00:56:06,102 --> 00:56:08,562
you know and I mean

842
00:56:08,562 --> 00:56:10,722
yeah Satoshi

843
00:56:10,722 --> 00:56:12,742
Hal you know like

844
00:56:12,742 --> 00:56:13,582
they didn't either

845
00:56:13,582 --> 00:56:16,582
so I don't know

846
00:56:16,582 --> 00:56:17,582
to each their own but

847
00:56:17,582 --> 00:56:20,762
I think that's awesome I just have one last question on the 21 stuff

848
00:56:20,762 --> 00:56:22,922
and then I've got a ton of other things I want to talk to you about

849
00:56:22,922 --> 00:56:24,202
yeah yeah I mean we could go as long as you want

850
00:56:24,202 --> 00:56:26,762
when so I know your dad

851
00:56:26,762 --> 00:56:28,742
has been a mentor to you throughout your entire

852
00:56:28,742 --> 00:56:30,562
sort of business career for anyone who doesn't know

853
00:56:30,562 --> 00:56:32,163
he's also like an OG Bitcoiner

854
00:56:32,163 --> 00:56:34,482
he's quite

855
00:56:34,482 --> 00:56:36,202
to the point, I think would be fair.

856
00:56:36,422 --> 00:56:36,562
Yeah.

857
00:56:36,662 --> 00:56:37,462
I'd be really curious

858
00:56:37,462 --> 00:56:38,982
if he gave you any advice through this.

859
00:56:39,062 --> 00:56:40,342
I was thinking about it on the way over.

860
00:56:41,762 --> 00:56:42,582
Oh my goodness.

861
00:56:42,582 --> 00:56:50,582
I mean, what's funny is my dad sold his first business

862
00:56:50,582 --> 00:56:56,222
for, I mean, I'm not going to like overly dox

863
00:56:56,222 --> 00:56:57,342
and share my family's history,

864
00:56:57,542 --> 00:57:01,522
but for like the revenue that Strike generates

865
00:57:01,522 --> 00:57:07,942
and like a, so like a minuscule number relative to where this Bitcoin stuff has taken us. Like

866
00:57:07,942 --> 00:57:22,945
people view my father or my family because of some wiki page that they found as like this all dominant banking empire I mean Strike you know like I said generates more revenue than the total value

867
00:57:22,945 --> 00:57:25,665
of my dad's company in a short amount of time.

868
00:57:26,045 --> 00:57:28,585
And my dad's, like, it's all Bitcoin.

869
00:57:29,125 --> 00:57:30,465
Like, we're just early to Bitcoin,

870
00:57:30,745 --> 00:57:31,905
very lucky, good timing.

871
00:57:32,425 --> 00:57:34,065
And it's funny because my dad,

872
00:57:34,305 --> 00:57:36,225
the first time someone wanted to acquire Strike

873
00:57:36,225 --> 00:57:36,985
was in 2021.

874
00:57:37,985 --> 00:57:39,725
I don't know if I've ever told this story,

875
00:57:39,825 --> 00:57:41,325
but I called my dad and I said,

876
00:57:41,325 --> 00:57:46,425
well, dude, this is like an amount of money I never thought. Like, what the hell? Should I sign it?

877
00:57:46,425 --> 00:57:54,005
And he told me, yeah. Like, duh. Are you crazy? And I ended up not, obviously, and for similar

878
00:57:54,005 --> 00:58:01,605
reasons. But then he's always said, you know, my son has more ambition in his pinky than I do

879
00:58:01,605 --> 00:58:07,605
in 10 times of my body. My son is out of his fucking mind. He's a crazy lunatic. He's like,

880
00:58:07,605 --> 00:58:12,585
going to build a revolution and stand on principles and integrity. And like, I mean,

881
00:58:12,585 --> 00:58:17,445
I would have sold strike years ago. So I think there's that part of my dad, which I just find

882
00:58:17,445 --> 00:58:24,205
kind of funny. He's more of a traitor than, but the part of my dad that I've taken with me that

883
00:58:24,205 --> 00:58:29,425
is incredibly meaningful in all, in the advice and my experiences is the integrity and what it

884
00:58:29,425 --> 00:58:35,485
means to be a man and a good person. Like he, when I had conversations with him about it,

885
00:58:35,485 --> 00:58:45,065
he said, um, the difference between a good man and a great man, an honorable man, an integral man

886
00:58:45,065 --> 00:58:53,325
is doing the right thing, no matter how hard it is, because people don't appreciate that doing

887
00:58:53,325 --> 00:59:01,205
the right thing is not for lack of understanding what is right. You know, what is right. You know

888
00:59:01,205 --> 00:59:07,365
that eating the chicken is better for you than eating the donut. You know that going to the gym

889
00:59:07,365 --> 00:59:12,845
is better than sitting on the couch. You know these things within you. But the question is,

890
00:59:12,845 --> 00:59:18,665
what level of commitment do you have to doing what's right, despite how difficult it may be?

891
00:59:19,465 --> 00:59:28,745
And he was just very supportive of like, you know in your heart what's right. Don't convince yourself

892
00:59:28,745 --> 00:59:30,665
that it's more complicated than that.

893
00:59:31,225 --> 00:59:33,625
And you're a great man,

894
00:59:33,745 --> 00:59:35,265
and I've raised you to be a great man.

895
00:59:35,685 --> 00:59:38,745
And the difficult part, but the worthy part,

896
00:59:38,865 --> 00:59:40,665
is committing to doing it

897
00:59:40,665 --> 00:59:43,205
despite how challenging it may be.

898
00:59:43,665 --> 00:59:45,665
Failing in public, taking the criticism,

899
00:59:45,885 --> 00:59:47,985
not being able to tell the full story,

900
00:59:48,485 --> 00:59:50,565
dealing with the consequences of mistakes.

901
00:59:50,765 --> 00:59:51,865
Like, that's the hard part.

902
00:59:51,865 --> 00:59:54,925
The easier part might have been taking a bunch of money

903
00:59:54,925 --> 00:59:57,385
and taking a bunch of access and stuff

904
00:59:57,385 --> 01:00:02,385
and, you know, the company might work, it might not, it might be aligned with me, it might not,

905
01:00:02,525 --> 01:00:07,125
but, you know, beggars can't be choosers. And he's like, that was probably easier.

906
01:00:08,185 --> 01:00:13,405
Sometimes the easy thing to do is to avoid the hard thing. And so that, you know, despite,

907
01:00:14,065 --> 01:00:19,025
it's funny, like he can't believe the level of ambition and where my career has gone,

908
01:00:19,025 --> 01:00:27,885
but still at the core is just where I get my integrity from and, and, uh, humility and, and,

909
01:00:27,885 --> 01:00:39,185
and, uh, kind of just like, uh, I'm fearless and, uh, not afraid to fail and own it and stuff like

910
01:00:39,185 --> 01:00:43,505
that comes from him. That's awesome. Um, is there anything else on the 21 before we move on

911
01:00:43,505 --> 01:00:48,325
on the 21 thing? You tell me, man. I mean, I've asked all the things that were major questions

912
01:00:48,325 --> 01:00:51,025
for me. I didn't know if there's anything else that you kind of almost wanted to get off your

913
01:00:51,025 --> 01:01:04,125
chest though. I don't think so. I mean, you know, I'll just reiterate like 21 is a company and we

914
01:01:04,125 --> 01:01:11,945
built a thing and the thing has 43,514 Bitcoin and it's listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

915
01:01:12,625 --> 01:01:18,085
So access to capital markets is a huge advantage. Having that much Bitcoin is a huge advantage.

916
01:01:18,325 --> 01:01:45,085
And I think the company can go on and be great. And I believe in the people that are on the board and I believe in Giancarlo and Tether. And so I don't know. Sometimes I see people say, you rug pulled me. And I get it. I'm not disowning outcomes and I'm not pointing fingers.

917
01:01:45,085 --> 01:01:52,385
but like it's still a company and it and it can go on and do great things um the announcement was

918
01:01:52,385 --> 01:01:56,985
more that i'm not the right person to lead it anymore because of the divergence between

919
01:01:56,985 --> 01:02:05,345
the company's beliefs and my beliefs and um lessons have been learned albeit painfully

920
01:02:05,345 --> 01:02:13,665
and i'm very grateful to be in the position i am now i'm very excited to do bitcoin my way and

921
01:02:13,665 --> 01:02:15,765
and create more content and I'm back.

922
01:02:15,765 --> 01:02:16,725
Let's go.

923
01:02:17,765 --> 01:02:19,505
You ready for the gear shift of all gear shifts?

924
01:02:19,505 --> 01:02:20,345
Yeah.

925
01:02:20,345 --> 01:02:21,845
Can we talk a bit about markets?

926
01:02:21,845 --> 01:02:22,685
Yes.

927
01:02:22,685 --> 01:02:27,245
So I've done a few shows over the last week that have,

928
01:02:27,245 --> 01:02:28,565
I feel like they've crystallized

929
01:02:28,565 --> 01:02:29,965
what I think is gonna happen next.

930
01:02:30,008 --> 01:02:33,048
that's going to potentially age like milk.

931
01:02:33,048 --> 01:02:35,468
But especially a conversation I had with Luke Groman yesterday,

932
01:02:35,648 --> 01:02:37,308
and that show will actually go out after this one.

933
01:02:37,428 --> 01:02:41,068
But we were talking about the AI CapEx boom,

934
01:02:41,328 --> 01:02:43,988
and if that's sort of reaching its end point.

935
01:02:44,688 --> 01:02:49,688
We were talking about how it's kind of almost a sprinkling of 2001 and 2008 at the same time.

936
01:02:50,408 --> 01:02:53,168
And I've got this sort of thought in my head that,

937
01:02:53,888 --> 01:02:58,788
does the AI CapEx slow down at the same time as sort of China open weight models

938
01:02:58,788 --> 01:03:03,008
sort of take over and potentially become very, very competitive with the frontier labs.

939
01:03:03,368 --> 01:03:07,908
And what situation does that then put the US government in? And it seems like the obvious

940
01:03:07,908 --> 01:03:14,848
answer is they then regulate the Chinese companies. They probably have to print a ton of money if these

941
01:03:14,848 --> 01:03:20,508
AI frontier labs seem too big to fail. And is that where we get sort of the next big print?

942
01:03:20,508 --> 01:03:36,168
probably um i like i would assume to me it's very simple like um why does anyone borrow money in the

943
01:03:36,168 --> 01:03:40,688
first place well you know you're you're pulling forward your future that's what borrowing money

944
01:03:40,688 --> 01:03:46,048
and incurring debt is is you're taking future productivity uh and you're spending it today so

945
01:03:46,048 --> 01:03:50,668
You're taking future time, energy, effort, labor, all of the money things I go on about.

946
01:03:51,088 --> 01:03:51,848
And you're spending it now.

947
01:03:51,888 --> 01:03:58,488
And you're doing so because you think you can actually arrive at that future state with more than if you didn't.

948
01:03:58,848 --> 01:04:00,328
So you have to pay that debt back.

949
01:04:00,408 --> 01:04:01,428
You have to produce profits.

950
01:04:01,428 --> 01:04:10,568
And you have all these companies that have borrowed a tremendous amount of money with no seemingly obvious way of paying it back.

951
01:04:10,568 --> 01:04:17,108
And so you keep seeing the can being kicked from, well, we're going to borrow from your classic venture capitalists like SoftBank.

952
01:04:17,148 --> 01:04:18,508
And then we're going to borrow from Oracle.

953
01:04:18,868 --> 01:04:21,928
And then Oracle's creditworthiness looks awful.

954
01:04:22,108 --> 01:04:24,768
And so they've now kicked it to NVIDIA, which happened this week.

955
01:04:24,808 --> 01:04:27,088
I don't know if you and Luke had an opportunity to talk about that.

956
01:04:27,608 --> 01:04:35,528
I mean, NVIDIA backstopping $250 billion of an open AI build out in Ohio is outrageous.

957
01:04:35,688 --> 01:04:37,908
That's 135% of their retained earnings.

958
01:04:37,908 --> 01:04:39,948
I mean, that's an astronomically high number.

959
01:04:39,948 --> 01:04:42,908
and their stock got hit for that.

960
01:04:43,028 --> 01:04:43,988
And then you would assume

961
01:04:43,988 --> 01:04:46,128
that this is going to continually get kicked up

962
01:04:46,128 --> 01:04:50,468
to ultimately who's paying for financing something

963
01:04:50,468 --> 01:04:52,728
that may not be productive enough

964
01:04:52,728 --> 01:04:54,088
to make everyone whole for it.

965
01:04:54,288 --> 01:04:56,768
And the part that I assume you talked about, Luke,

966
01:04:56,848 --> 01:05:00,408
with China is, well, if OpenAI, for example,

967
01:05:00,408 --> 01:05:07,168
they're the most, it's the economics around OpenAI,

968
01:05:07,168 --> 01:05:12,448
the amount they've borrowed, the lack of their path to profitability is like the cleanest target

969
01:05:12,448 --> 01:05:19,408
to talk about. But it's for all of, I mean, Anthropic as well. But if you borrow a billion

970
01:05:19,408 --> 01:05:24,308
dollars, assuming you're going to have X amount market share, be able to charge X amount, and then

971
01:05:24,308 --> 01:05:30,788
China comes out and it's, you know, a hundred times cheaper and about as good. Well, then

972
01:05:30,788 --> 01:05:35,928
your credit worthiness and your ability to pay back really takes a hit. And so it's become

973
01:05:35,928 --> 01:05:42,068
abundantly clear that this cost is going to have to be realized by somebody, that it's not clear

974
01:05:42,068 --> 01:05:46,088
that there hasn't been malinvestment and there isn't going to be losses that have to be realized.

975
01:05:46,088 --> 01:05:51,928
And this is at the scale of trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. Now,

976
01:05:52,808 --> 01:05:58,468
when it comes to politics, according to the Trump administration, they claim that AI is a race that

977
01:05:58,468 --> 01:06:02,848
we must win strategically against China. They also have declared it a national security threat if we

978
01:06:02,848 --> 01:06:08,828
don't win. So across the like political sphere of elevating this to supreme importance, they've used

979
01:06:08,828 --> 01:06:14,948
all of them, you know, strategic national security threat, you know, and it is the economy war,

980
01:06:15,128 --> 01:06:20,228
right. I mean, it also is representative of all of the GDP growth, right. And so if that were to

981
01:06:20,228 --> 01:06:25,208
slow down all of the job creation, all the re-industrialization that's going on. And so,

982
01:06:25,208 --> 01:06:31,748
yeah, you, you now, now you have a very classic political question, unfortunately, seemingly

983
01:06:31,748 --> 01:06:37,488
someone has to lose is where this looks like it's going. It doesn't look like everyone that borrowed

984
01:06:37,488 --> 01:06:42,728
money is going to be able to pay it back. The productivity was as planned. And it's not that

985
01:06:42,728 --> 01:06:48,288
AI isn't awesome. I think AI is great. It's here to stay. It's that, wait a second, did anyone

986
01:06:48,288 --> 01:06:54,688
realize that China was going to have open source, like near free competitors to a business that

987
01:06:54,688 --> 01:06:59,848
needs to somehow make whole on like trillions of dollars that says they don't view profitability

988
01:06:59,848 --> 01:07:07,948
until like 2035. Like did anyone like, so someone has to lose. There's been malinvestment. And

989
01:07:07,948 --> 01:07:12,008
ultimately it sounds like it's going to be a question of the government and the central bank

990
01:07:12,008 --> 01:07:18,228
of like, who's going to lose? Are you going to let, and the other problem is all of the Mag7,

991
01:07:18,368 --> 01:07:22,908
like all of these big tech companies are now looped into this. They've gone from extremely

992
01:07:22,908 --> 01:07:28,148
cashflow positive cash generating businesses to businesses that carry debt that are no longer

993
01:07:28,148 --> 01:07:29,448
participating in stock buybacks.

994
01:07:29,448 --> 01:07:32,648
So you've got the most heavily weighted S&P 500

995
01:07:32,648 --> 01:07:36,148
in the US capital markets, which is the United States

996
01:07:36,148 --> 01:07:37,148
savings account.

997
01:07:37,148 --> 01:07:48,725
So if you let the AI trade in large part unwind and fail then the NVIDIAs and the Googles and the Metas and stuff will take a big hit They take a big hit Then U wealth takes a big hit

998
01:07:49,464 --> 01:07:54,225
And so it's a question of like who is allowed to fail.

999
01:07:54,665 --> 01:08:00,304
And if no one's allowed to fail, well, then yeah, then you have to paper it over with printed capital.

1000
01:08:00,744 --> 01:08:02,705
Do you think they are already too big to fail?

1001
01:08:04,665 --> 01:08:05,925
No one's too big to fail.

1002
01:08:05,925 --> 01:08:08,205
Again, these are political.

1003
01:08:08,765 --> 01:08:12,205
We have invented man-made conditions

1004
01:08:12,205 --> 01:08:15,804
to allow ourselves to decide who's too big to fail.

1005
01:08:16,424 --> 01:08:19,005
In the most basic form of pure free markets

1006
01:08:19,005 --> 01:08:23,184
in Austrian theory, there's no one too big to fail.

1007
01:08:23,385 --> 01:08:25,344
You fail, it's like a form of Darwinism.

1008
01:08:25,545 --> 01:08:29,505
The giraffe with a neck not long enough to eat died.

1009
01:08:30,844 --> 01:08:32,705
That's not a good or bad thing.

1010
01:08:32,804 --> 01:08:33,785
That's the natural thing.

1011
01:08:33,785 --> 01:08:34,505
That's evolutionary.

1012
01:08:34,785 --> 01:08:35,485
That's science.

1013
01:08:35,485 --> 01:08:44,665
And so if you borrow a bunch of money and spend said money with an inability to pay it back, your future is not up to you.

1014
01:08:45,244 --> 01:08:50,085
People need to understand a business's biggest competitor always is their costs.

1015
01:08:51,105 --> 01:08:58,864
You're only competing against your costs because your right to wake up and continue to run your business is if you're earning more than it costs you to run it, period.

1016
01:08:58,864 --> 01:09:02,984
And so if you're not in that position, your future is not up to you.

1017
01:09:03,205 --> 01:09:05,145
It's up to Oracle.

1018
01:09:05,145 --> 01:09:06,424
It's up to now NVIDIA.

1019
01:09:06,524 --> 01:09:08,065
And eventually, it'll be up to the US government.

1020
01:09:08,265 --> 01:09:11,344
So these are all man-made constructs that are recent.

1021
01:09:11,605 --> 01:09:14,645
So do I think that the US government will let them fail?

1022
01:09:14,725 --> 01:09:15,304
No, I don't.

1023
01:09:15,364 --> 01:09:16,825
I think that we will print the money.

1024
01:09:17,145 --> 01:09:21,244
But yeah, that is increasingly where this is all headed.

1025
01:09:22,184 --> 01:09:24,585
And I think what Luke is probably getting at,

1026
01:09:24,665 --> 01:09:27,364
and that this is more like 2008 than 2000,

1027
01:09:27,904 --> 01:09:29,645
you know, people say, oh, this is the dot-com bubble,

1028
01:09:29,904 --> 01:09:30,464
and it's online.

1029
01:09:30,464 --> 01:09:37,065
But the dot-com bubble was over-exuberance about the future of technology and the internet,

1030
01:09:37,445 --> 01:09:39,665
meaning the equities were just valued too much.

1031
01:09:39,825 --> 01:09:47,624
We were too excited and too rewarding of what these businesses could produce in the near-term future.

1032
01:09:48,205 --> 01:09:51,105
And the value of the equities just had to come down.

1033
01:09:51,445 --> 01:09:54,684
The problem with AI companies is they're not software companies.

1034
01:09:56,145 --> 01:09:59,344
They're like real estate companies almost.

1035
01:09:59,344 --> 01:10:16,945
You know, when you see Google go from producing ungodly amounts of cash and taking that cash and plowing it into the equity, like that's what gets you these crazy premiums is because the largest purchaser of the stock is the person printing billions of dollars where their costs are relatively fixed and they're able to still grow.

1036
01:10:16,945 --> 01:10:22,565
Now, all of a sudden, Google's riddled with debt and they're issuing ATM equity.

1037
01:10:22,825 --> 01:10:26,304
They're diluting the equity to finance this stuff.

1038
01:10:26,725 --> 01:10:31,905
So that's not over exuberance of equity based on the future.

1039
01:10:32,145 --> 01:10:39,525
That's like, wait, that's more like 2008 real estate market.

1040
01:10:40,385 --> 01:10:42,545
So I assume that was the Luke conversation.

1041
01:10:42,624 --> 01:10:43,864
Yeah, that was basically it.

1042
01:10:43,864 --> 01:10:46,424
And the thing that Luke said, obviously in a healthy market,

1043
01:10:46,624 --> 01:10:49,344
he was saying, if you're too big, well, get smaller is the answer.

1044
01:10:49,984 --> 01:10:52,585
But it's whether the US government will let them get smaller

1045
01:10:52,585 --> 01:10:54,404
because of those national security implications,

1046
01:10:54,404 --> 01:10:57,304
as well as the fact that they're driving all the economy GDP growth.

1047
01:10:58,105 --> 01:11:00,705
Yeah. I mean, I agree with all of that.

1048
01:11:00,844 --> 01:11:04,965
And it's also, you know, again, the problem is if you're too big, get smaller, sure.

1049
01:11:05,184 --> 01:11:08,304
But after you've borrowed so much, get smaller is not an option.

1050
01:11:08,565 --> 01:11:13,325
You have to produce the productivity necessary to pay that back.

1051
01:11:13,325 --> 01:11:16,765
I mean, you want to take an example. What about the $40 trillion of debt the United States is in?

1052
01:11:16,825 --> 01:11:21,464
Well, should the United States just get smaller? That's not an option. They have to find the growth

1053
01:11:21,464 --> 01:11:26,825
necessary to pay that back. And it will be some combination of hopefully productivity through

1054
01:11:26,825 --> 01:11:33,525
innovation in America combined with debasement of the debt. Now, how is that? Is that split 50-50

1055
01:11:33,525 --> 01:11:40,724
or is it split 199? It will probably be lots of inflation and deficit monetization. But yeah,

1056
01:11:40,724 --> 01:11:44,885
I don't know if they can get smaller, both because the US government probably wouldn't

1057
01:11:44,885 --> 01:11:52,265
want that competitively, but also because, again, like someone has to, you got to, and

1058
01:11:52,265 --> 01:11:57,925
the way that these companies do it is they're refinancing based on their equity.

1059
01:11:58,405 --> 01:12:05,604
So, and I assume, you know, so one of the issues is what they keep doing is they take

1060
01:12:05,604 --> 01:12:07,925
on a bunch of financial obligations.

1061
01:12:07,925 --> 01:12:09,124
They borrow a bunch of money.

1062
01:12:09,124 --> 01:12:10,285
We're building all these data centers.

1063
01:12:10,285 --> 01:12:11,065
We're doing all this shit.

1064
01:12:11,565 --> 01:12:16,325
And then they raise a private venture capital round that values the equity up, which then

1065
01:12:16,325 --> 01:12:20,224
allows them to refinance everything because their equity capital is now worth more.

1066
01:12:20,525 --> 01:12:24,084
Like OpenAI goes from being worth $8 billion to $80 billion to $800 billion.

1067
01:12:24,505 --> 01:12:26,425
And then you can continue to refinance that.

1068
01:12:26,785 --> 01:12:32,184
But then my suspicion of why these businesses halted going public is because you know who's

1069
01:12:32,184 --> 01:12:40,224
not as giving and as easy as the public market?

1070
01:12:40,285 --> 01:12:42,584
The public markets aren't going to be like, oh, I'll give you this markup.

1071
01:12:42,584 --> 01:12:43,665
We believe in the roadmap.

1072
01:12:43,665 --> 01:12:45,285
Send the deck to my email.

1073
01:12:45,285 --> 01:12:48,464
The public markets are a bit more ruthless, and they also involve

1074
01:12:48,464 --> 01:12:49,584
foreign capital.

1075
01:12:49,584 --> 01:13:00,561
And if there a war sometimes things trade down for things that are outside of your control And if these companies lose the equity value and that starts to drop then they lose the ability to refinance it

1076
01:13:00,621 --> 01:13:03,421
I mean, OpenAI already is not creditworthy enough

1077
01:13:03,421 --> 01:13:04,361
to borrow from a bank.

1078
01:13:04,461 --> 01:13:06,341
This is why they need NVIDIA to step in.

1079
01:13:06,741 --> 01:13:08,281
There's effectively a bank is saying,

1080
01:13:08,481 --> 01:13:11,901
we don't believe in your ability to backstop all of this.

1081
01:13:12,001 --> 01:13:14,741
Like we need someone who's far more creditworthy

1082
01:13:14,741 --> 01:13:17,701
to be able to step in and say, no, no, no.

1083
01:13:17,701 --> 01:13:25,941
if shit hits the fan, I'll handle it. So yeah, it's a mess. I do not think it's going to end well.

1084
01:13:26,021 --> 01:13:31,101
I think there's been malinvestment. And I also do not think the United States can ban

1085
01:13:31,101 --> 01:13:35,861
Chinese models either. I know that you said you think that's what they might do. I do not

1086
01:13:35,861 --> 01:13:39,741
think that. I don't know if it is what they'll do, but there's been talk of it. Like people

1087
01:13:39,741 --> 01:13:42,421
have been talking about whether regulation is going to be the way to get through this. But

1088
01:13:42,421 --> 01:13:47,461
the interesting thing is if it does come down to the treasury department and the Fed to kind of

1089
01:13:47,461 --> 01:13:52,421
backstop these major companies. It's going to be the most politically unpopular decision ever.

1090
01:13:52,781 --> 01:13:56,721
Like people already hate the data centers. They hate, they're very scared of AI. And like, if you

1091
01:13:56,721 --> 01:14:02,441
look back at 2008, it's like, we print money or you all lose your houses. Like that was relatively

1092
01:14:02,441 --> 01:14:07,801
politically palatable. I think COVID it's like, no one really knew what was happening. It kind of

1093
01:14:07,801 --> 01:14:12,281
makes sense in the moment, but this one doesn't. And I don't know if it will to most of the Americans,

1094
01:14:12,281 --> 01:14:19,081
But I'm not sure anything has been politically popular for a long time.

1095
01:14:19,201 --> 01:14:19,621
That's fair.

1096
01:14:20,361 --> 01:14:27,561
I think trust in government and institutions, according to recent polling, is still under 30% and declining.

1097
01:14:27,941 --> 01:14:35,441
So I don't think the people believe in what big corporations and government has been telling them for a while.

1098
01:14:35,441 --> 01:14:45,041
I don't think that AI is piercing through a layer of trust that we had before ChatGVT hit the app stores.

1099
01:14:45,241 --> 01:14:46,381
I don't think that's the case.

1100
01:14:46,501 --> 01:14:54,601
I mean, what's going on in New York is equally as polarizing, but just on the opposite side of the spectrum.

1101
01:14:54,761 --> 01:14:54,981
Totally.

1102
01:14:55,541 --> 01:15:00,901
So, yeah, I think the system is crumbling upon itself.

1103
01:15:00,901 --> 01:15:07,021
I would recommend everyone read a book called The End Times by Peter Turchin.

1104
01:15:07,661 --> 01:15:08,761
Luke recommended the same book.

1105
01:15:08,801 --> 01:15:09,201
Oh, did he?

1106
01:15:09,301 --> 01:15:09,461
Yeah.

1107
01:15:10,081 --> 01:15:10,641
Yeah.

1108
01:15:10,761 --> 01:15:14,201
I mean, he's a really fascinating guy.

1109
01:15:14,541 --> 01:15:22,821
He basically takes science and math and tries to make sense of history.

1110
01:15:22,821 --> 01:15:29,761
and so he looks at the fall of empires and you know cyclical behavior in human history

1111
01:15:29,761 --> 01:15:35,121
of like the roman empire grows achieves great things and eventually collapse and oh there's

1112
01:15:35,121 --> 01:15:40,581
chinese empires that had similar behavior like is there any mathematical correlation there that we

1113
01:15:40,581 --> 01:15:44,261
can identify and future project to try and understand mistakes that we shouldn't make

1114
01:15:44,261 --> 01:15:51,421
and the two core kpis that he comes up with for an empire that would you know is in potential

1115
01:15:51,421 --> 01:16:00,661
decline is a decline of wage growth. So things are going up in price and you're not getting

1116
01:16:00,661 --> 01:16:04,501
compensated. So there's a divergence between the price of things and how much you're getting

1117
01:16:04,501 --> 01:16:10,781
compensated in real terms. So the decline of growth of wages. And then the other is what he

1118
01:16:10,781 --> 01:16:22,221
calls elite overproduction, where you are producing more elite aspirers, potential elites,

1119
01:16:22,441 --> 01:16:27,061
which I consider, you know, you go to a coastal university, you want to be a lawyer, you want to

1120
01:16:27,061 --> 01:16:31,041
be the president, you want to be a hedge fund manager, you know, like that's what it means now

1121
01:16:31,041 --> 01:16:35,741
to afford the American dream. You cannot be a blue collar welder, you cannot be a handmade

1122
01:16:35,741 --> 01:16:40,161
manufacturer. So all of those jobs, you know, because of the printed money and the globalism

1123
01:16:40,161 --> 01:16:41,461
are now elsewhere.

1124
01:16:41,461 --> 01:16:44,661
So in order to make a life for yourself in this country,

1125
01:16:44,661 --> 01:16:46,461
you have to be a coastal elitist.

1126
01:16:46,461 --> 01:16:48,081
And the problem is there's just not enough room

1127
01:16:48,081 --> 01:16:49,001
for everybody.

1128
01:16:49,001 --> 01:16:51,381
And he makes this point that, well,

1129
01:16:51,381 --> 01:16:54,261
when you think of revolutionaries, you assume, well,

1130
01:16:54,261 --> 01:16:57,461
it's the poor that must be taking out the pitchforks

1131
01:16:57,461 --> 01:17:00,081
or pointing the guns at people and threatening to shoot up

1132
01:17:00,081 --> 01:17:01,101
and protesting.

1133
01:17:01,101 --> 01:17:02,681
And that's actually not true.

1134
01:17:02,681 --> 01:17:04,641
You know, the poorest, you know, the homeless people

1135
01:17:04,641 --> 01:17:08,261
in Chicago are not like, didn't put a bullet

1136
01:17:08,261 --> 01:17:09,521
into Charlie Kirk.

1137
01:17:10,161 --> 01:17:13,401
It was a university-educated kid.

1138
01:17:14,041 --> 01:17:17,061
And it's elite aspirants that realize

1139
01:17:17,061 --> 01:17:18,301
there's not enough room for them.

1140
01:17:19,081 --> 01:17:20,461
And the combination of those two,

1141
01:17:20,541 --> 01:17:23,401
this guy identifies as a leading indicator

1142
01:17:23,401 --> 01:17:25,301
for an empire in decline,

1143
01:17:25,301 --> 01:17:27,661
is where the real wages can't keep up

1144
01:17:27,661 --> 01:17:29,541
with the prices of the goods and services,

1145
01:17:29,541 --> 01:17:31,801
and there's too many elites aspiring

1146
01:17:31,801 --> 01:17:32,921
and not enough room for them.

1147
01:17:32,941 --> 01:17:34,761
And that's when you get revolutionary

1148
01:17:34,761 --> 01:17:35,901
forth-turning tendencies.

1149
01:17:36,281 --> 01:17:37,541
So that's what I think is happening.

1150
01:17:37,781 --> 01:17:39,621
Yeah, I mean, I think...

1151
01:17:39,621 --> 01:17:41,101
it's just from looking around,

1152
01:17:41,161 --> 01:17:42,381
it feels like that's what's happening.

1153
01:17:42,541 --> 01:17:42,661
Yeah.

1154
01:17:43,341 --> 01:17:45,961
Do you think, like we talk about it in Bitcoin all the time,

1155
01:17:46,041 --> 01:17:47,241
this sort of death of fiat currency,

1156
01:17:47,361 --> 01:17:48,081
the death of the dollar.

1157
01:17:48,561 --> 01:17:49,441
Do you think it's happening?

1158
01:17:49,541 --> 01:17:51,181
Because like essentially what you're saying is

1159
01:17:51,181 --> 01:17:52,321
malinvestment's got us here.

1160
01:17:52,441 --> 01:17:54,401
And if the Fed and the treasury do step in

1161
01:17:54,401 --> 01:17:56,901
and try and prop these too big to fail AI companies up,

1162
01:17:56,941 --> 01:17:58,801
it's like malinvestment on malinvestment.

1163
01:17:58,901 --> 01:18:00,721
And when does that spiral end?

1164
01:18:00,981 --> 01:18:01,961
Like, do you think this is the,

1165
01:18:02,401 --> 01:18:13,057
not the start of the end but we in the end times of this It could be but you know you got to define end What end to you End is hyperinflation of the currency Like no dollar at all

1166
01:18:13,377 --> 01:18:16,517
Maybe not no dollar at all, but like huge, huge levels of inflation.

1167
01:18:17,677 --> 01:18:19,677
I think, I don't know exactly how you define the end,

1168
01:18:19,737 --> 01:18:21,017
but I think you'll know the end when you see it.

1169
01:18:21,497 --> 01:18:21,777
Yeah.

1170
01:18:21,977 --> 01:18:26,077
So that, but I think that's kind of the issue with this conversation is that,

1171
01:18:26,217 --> 01:18:29,877
you know, was COVID the end of fiat?

1172
01:18:29,877 --> 01:18:33,877
It feels like a lot of these may be the start of the end.

1173
01:18:33,877 --> 01:18:38,037
Right, right. But like COVID could have been. I mean, we had double digit inflation in the United

1174
01:18:38,037 --> 01:18:44,117
States and you saw incredible amounts of asset inflation. And so, I mean, you could make the

1175
01:18:44,117 --> 01:18:49,317
argument that like, yeah, I mean, know the end when you see it, but it's the market can remain

1176
01:18:49,317 --> 01:18:55,157
irrational longer than you can remain solvent type of thing. It feels like a tower that to your point

1177
01:18:55,157 --> 01:19:02,597
has already been tipped over and is falling, but the fall could take what amount of time and when

1178
01:19:02,597 --> 01:19:07,797
is it technically fallen? Like when it's already like elevated off the ground, but not totally

1179
01:19:07,797 --> 01:19:16,357
on the cement. So I don't know, but yeah, I agree with the, I do think that treasuries,

1180
01:19:16,357 --> 01:19:23,717
like sovereign debt as the reserve asset of the world, that's changing today, already has been.

1181
01:19:23,717 --> 01:19:30,517
Like central banks have not added on net to the sovereign paper, US sovereign paper, in like a decade.

1182
01:19:30,837 --> 01:19:32,017
And they've been buying gold.

1183
01:19:32,177 --> 01:19:36,417
And now gold balances have exceeded these paper fiat currency balances.

1184
01:19:36,657 --> 01:19:41,997
And so I think that, I think we're seeing a repricing of the world.

1185
01:19:42,277 --> 01:19:45,937
People are repricing down fiat paper claims.

1186
01:19:46,337 --> 01:19:47,877
And that has been happening.

1187
01:19:48,137 --> 01:19:52,617
And I do agree with you that that'll, and so that looks like a significantly higher gold,

1188
01:19:52,617 --> 01:19:55,337
to significantly higher Bitcoin, significantly higher assets.

1189
01:19:56,117 --> 01:20:00,357
But, you know, does that mean the dollar is ending?

1190
01:20:00,857 --> 01:20:01,257
I don't know.

1191
01:20:01,317 --> 01:20:02,577
It just depends on your definition.

1192
01:20:03,457 --> 01:20:05,477
The dollar has ended for me a long time ago.

1193
01:20:05,677 --> 01:20:07,917
I don't use it much, if ever.

1194
01:20:08,397 --> 01:20:09,577
So it depends.

1195
01:20:10,837 --> 01:20:12,217
I'm a bit of a hypocrite for saying this,

1196
01:20:12,237 --> 01:20:13,357
because if you'd have told me 10 years ago

1197
01:20:13,357 --> 01:20:14,137
when I first got into Bitcoin

1198
01:20:14,137 --> 01:20:16,217
that the price would be $65,000,

1199
01:20:16,957 --> 01:20:18,237
I wouldn't have believed you.

1200
01:20:18,457 --> 01:20:20,457
But at the same time, I look at what's going on,

1201
01:20:20,497 --> 01:20:22,357
and I'm like, how is Bitcoin this cheap right now?

1202
01:20:22,617 --> 01:20:24,117
And you said earlier in the show,

1203
01:20:24,177 --> 01:20:25,837
you were like, we didn't really have a bull market.

1204
01:20:25,917 --> 01:20:27,457
You don't think we had a bull market in 2025.

1205
01:20:29,317 --> 01:20:30,637
Like what's happening?

1206
01:20:30,777 --> 01:20:32,037
Why do you think we are still here?

1207
01:20:32,677 --> 01:20:34,857
Because to me, Bitcoin,

1208
01:20:35,197 --> 01:20:38,877
it's the only free market we have left, truly free.

1209
01:20:39,297 --> 01:20:43,157
And so for that reason, to steal a Luke Groman line,

1210
01:20:43,577 --> 01:20:45,797
it's like the last functioning smoke alarm

1211
01:20:45,797 --> 01:20:46,717
of fiat liquidity.

1212
01:20:47,277 --> 01:20:49,357
So it somehow is the only thing

1213
01:20:49,357 --> 01:20:50,617
that's able to tell us the truth,

1214
01:20:50,617 --> 01:20:52,337
or at least it tells us the truth

1215
01:20:52,337 --> 01:20:58,597
in real time. Everything else seems to lag. And so to me, Bitcoin is just expressing

1216
01:20:58,597 --> 01:21:05,697
the dire straits that fiat is in. It's effectively telling me, so if it's a fiat liquidity smoke

1217
01:21:05,697 --> 01:21:09,777
alarm, what it's telling me is there's not enough liquidity in the system to support all of this.

1218
01:21:10,177 --> 01:21:14,357
So all these people have borrowed all this money and there's not enough productivity to make

1219
01:21:14,357 --> 01:21:21,377
everybody whole. And so that's what it's saying, which I think is a very honest view. Like when

1220
01:21:21,377 --> 01:21:25,457
Bitcoin started to fall in the beginning of this year and took a tumble. And everyone's like, well,

1221
01:21:25,457 --> 01:21:29,677
gold's still up and equity's still up. Well, just give it a second. Give it a few months because

1222
01:21:29,677 --> 01:21:34,797
these things, you know, they don't trade on weekends. They're circuit breakers. They're

1223
01:21:34,797 --> 01:21:40,737
central planning and intervention. I mean, the essay that I wrote was about how Bitcoin is so

1224
01:21:40,737 --> 01:21:46,797
free that it, you know, however bad you think bear markets can get, they will get worse. And

1225
01:21:46,797 --> 01:21:51,137
however good you think bull markets can get, they will get better because it is the most natural way

1226
01:21:51,137 --> 01:21:53,577
for you to experience the world as it actually is

1227
01:21:53,577 --> 01:21:54,897
because there's no one in the middle

1228
01:21:54,897 --> 01:21:57,337
editing your version of reality.

1229
01:21:57,557 --> 01:22:01,557
Everything else around us is like a sanded down version

1230
01:22:01,557 --> 01:22:04,337
where like the sharp edges are rounded off.

1231
01:22:04,717 --> 01:22:06,437
And so everything else gets towards

1232
01:22:06,437 --> 01:22:08,517
what Bitcoin has been expressing for some time

1233
01:22:08,517 --> 01:22:11,817
is there's just not enough fiat for this thing to work.

1234
01:22:12,377 --> 01:22:14,757
And so whether that means people are going to fail

1235
01:22:14,757 --> 01:22:16,337
or the US government's going to have to,

1236
01:22:16,657 --> 01:22:19,057
and the central bank's going to have to create more fiat

1237
01:22:19,057 --> 01:22:20,417
to make it work,

1238
01:22:20,417 --> 01:22:34,877
That's all Bitcoin has been continuously expressing. And you get these weird moments where after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Janet Yellen did some very clever financing in draining the reverse repo facility.

1239
01:22:35,457 --> 01:22:42,037
And that gave Bitcoin some legs to have what we would consider the 2020, what was that, 3 to 2025 run.

1240
01:22:42,037 --> 01:22:44,837
But I don't think that there's been a full business cycle.

1241
01:22:44,957 --> 01:22:47,317
I mean, rates have remained high.

1242
01:22:48,337 --> 01:22:50,237
Monetary policy has remained tight.

1243
01:22:50,417 --> 01:22:54,337
Even now, Kevin Warsh has remained what he claims to be a hawk.

1244
01:22:54,637 --> 01:22:57,057
We might have a cut this week.

1245
01:22:57,557 --> 01:23:01,417
And so monetary policy since that 2021 era has been tight.

1246
01:23:01,537 --> 01:23:04,497
I mean, the Fed has drastically reduced its balance sheet.

1247
01:23:04,577 --> 01:23:06,897
The business cycle has been fairly depressed.

1248
01:23:07,737 --> 01:23:11,537
And I think Bitcoin is telling you that very honestly.

1249
01:23:12,037 --> 01:23:16,237
And until they start providing the liquidity

1250
01:23:16,237 --> 01:23:19,957
that is necessary to make the system whole,

1251
01:23:19,993 --> 01:23:27,013
won't run. Is that? It makes total sense. But does Bitcoin need the central bank to start

1252
01:23:27,013 --> 01:23:31,393
cutting rates for it to run? Like when does it break out of this sort of tech trade that it's

1253
01:23:31,393 --> 01:23:41,793
become? I'm not sure. I mean, I don't, you know, when people get frustrated by the correlation to

1254
01:23:41,793 --> 01:23:48,913
tech, I don't know. I've always viewed Bitcoin as some combination of technology plus fiat

1255
01:23:48,913 --> 01:23:55,453
liquidity. It is a technology. It is software that solved a previously impossible computer

1256
01:23:55,453 --> 01:23:59,873
science problem. So it is innovative. It's disruptive. It is dematerializing existing

1257
01:23:59,873 --> 01:24:04,713
industries and creating new ones. And so in that respect, it is technology. And you can

1258
01:24:04,713 --> 01:24:09,693
try and price future growth based on activity. And you mentioned addresses that hold certain

1259
01:24:09,693 --> 01:24:14,693
amounts and all of that stuff. And then the other combination is it is a reflection of

1260
01:24:14,693 --> 01:24:18,833
fiat liquidity, like in many respects, Bitcoin is priced on the expectation of future fiat.

1261
01:24:19,073 --> 01:24:22,453
And so when the expectation of future fiat, like if Warsh comes out and says, I'm cutting

1262
01:24:22,453 --> 01:24:27,313
interest rates by 300 basis points, like Bitcoin is going to fly because the expectation of future

1263
01:24:27,313 --> 01:24:32,733
credit and fiat in the system is drastically rising. And so then there's Bitcoin as well.

1264
01:24:33,053 --> 01:24:37,673
And so it's some weird combination of that. And like people get very frustrated. It's like, no,

1265
01:24:37,773 --> 01:24:41,853
it's just like a tech stock. I don't think so. Oh, it's just like gold. I don't know about that.

1266
01:24:41,853 --> 01:24:46,853
So will it ever like fully decouple?

1267
01:24:47,253 --> 01:24:48,093
I don't know.

1268
01:24:48,093 --> 01:24:49,933
I don't know why it should need to.

1269
01:24:49,933 --> 01:24:51,173
I think your question is,

1270
01:24:52,753 --> 01:24:57,753
when will Bitcoin act more risk off as opposed to risk on?

1271
01:24:57,913 --> 01:25:00,213
Well, it feels like it should be both.

1272
01:25:00,213 --> 01:25:01,993
Right, but what does that mean?

1273
01:25:01,993 --> 01:25:03,253
Always go up.

1274
01:25:03,253 --> 01:25:05,033
Yeah, which is like, you know,

1275
01:25:05,033 --> 01:25:06,593
why isn't Bitcoin always going up?

1276
01:25:06,593 --> 01:25:09,353
Well, you know, you can answer that question.

1277
01:25:09,353 --> 01:25:11,653
And the other thing too, that I think is fascinating

1278
01:25:11,653 --> 01:25:15,173
I've gone through the mental exercise, which is probably helpful for others, which is,

1279
01:25:15,813 --> 01:25:20,373
well, why aren't central banks and governments adopting Bitcoin today in size?

1280
01:25:21,253 --> 01:25:25,733
And I asked, well, could they have adopted it on the first block?

1281
01:25:26,933 --> 01:25:29,493
Like the very first 50 Bitcoin that were mined,

1282
01:25:30,053 --> 01:25:33,973
could the United, would the United States have started to like sovereignly hold

1283
01:25:34,613 --> 01:25:38,213
you know, a real treasury in that? And the answer is no, because it was,

1284
01:25:38,213 --> 01:25:47,733
it didn't have the skeletal build to support liquidity and trade that big. Because the next

1285
01:25:47,733 --> 01:25:53,473
block was another 50 Bitcoins. And so you would have gotten debased heavily because you would have

1286
01:25:53,473 --> 01:25:58,873
gone from, I own 50 out of 50 to I own 50 out of 100. That's serious inflation. That's 100%

1287
01:25:58,873 --> 01:26:09,293
inflation. And so the early Bitcoin supply was extremely inflationary and it incentivized a

1288
01:26:09,293 --> 01:26:17,093
tremendous amount of speculation. You know, Satoshi begged speculators to come and speculate on

1289
01:26:17,093 --> 01:26:23,113
Bitcoin. He begged them because he's basically, you know, cutting the issuance in half and

1290
01:26:23,113 --> 01:26:27,553
basically saying, if you want to get in early on this thing, you only have so much time. You can't

1291
01:26:27,553 --> 01:26:31,433
wait to see if it works because then you're too late. And he built this curve on purpose.

1292
01:26:31,653 --> 01:26:38,693
But it was so inflationary in the beginning that like no large, you know, the government can't buy.

1293
01:26:38,913 --> 01:26:42,973
I mean, China's trade surplus was a trillion dollars last year. That's like the size of the

1294
01:26:42,973 --> 01:26:49,733
entire Bitcoin market. So it also has this interesting, like it's not a problem, but it

1295
01:26:49,733 --> 01:26:55,953
has this, it's skeletal frame can only support so much mass as well. It's a great thing. It means

1296
01:26:55,953 --> 01:26:59,273
that the people who are cleaning toilets and selling baklava got to get Bitcoin early.

1297
01:26:59,473 --> 01:26:59,893
Correct.

1298
01:27:00,893 --> 01:27:01,173
Correct.

1299
01:27:01,313 --> 01:27:02,013
Shout out Mandrake.

1300
01:27:02,233 --> 01:27:03,073
Shout out Mandrake.

1301
01:27:03,513 --> 01:27:07,133
But Danny, it's such a prescient point that needs to be understood.

1302
01:27:08,253 --> 01:27:13,593
Somehow Satoshi engineered the thing to make sure that it got distributed to the people.

1303
01:27:13,873 --> 01:27:16,133
And people say, well, it's because he leaked it on a mailing list.

1304
01:27:16,213 --> 01:27:16,913
Probably true.

1305
01:27:17,313 --> 01:27:20,533
Well, it's because it was anarchist, libertarian, cypherpunk leaning.

1306
01:27:20,773 --> 01:27:21,533
Probably true.

1307
01:27:21,533 --> 01:27:28,013
But it also is almost like scientific because you could not have aped into this thing early on.

1308
01:27:28,173 --> 01:27:29,973
It was far too inflationary.

1309
01:27:30,113 --> 01:27:31,033
It was far too volatile.

1310
01:27:31,233 --> 01:27:33,453
The float of the thing was not large enough.

1311
01:27:33,593 --> 01:27:38,833
Float meaning how much liquid supply was actually active because I can't get in and out with

1312
01:27:38,833 --> 01:27:42,433
any like real liquidity until it was far more mature.

1313
01:27:42,613 --> 01:27:47,373
Like strategy as we know it today could not have existed when Saylor first wrote Bitcoin off.

1314
01:27:47,593 --> 01:27:50,353
It just couldn't have because of the skeletal frame.

1315
01:27:50,353 --> 01:27:57,593
So the only people that functionally could have spent time understanding it and adopting it were the individual.

1316
01:27:57,853 --> 01:28:05,433
It almost was forcefully a bottoms-up movement by design, which I don't know how much of that was purposeful.

1317
01:28:05,493 --> 01:28:06,193
We never will.

1318
01:28:06,393 --> 01:28:15,373
But it's an unbelievable achievement to somehow build something that is, how do you fairly distribute new money without knowing anyone's name,

1319
01:28:15,373 --> 01:28:19,813
without having them registered anywhere central and do it in a way where it becomes bottoms

1320
01:28:19,813 --> 01:28:25,313
up and individually owned so much so that now that it's a trillion dollar asset, it's

1321
01:28:25,313 --> 01:28:38,670
fairly impossible to corner the market or to take it over So yeah I think like I got into Bitcoin before Sailor Sailor getting into Bitcoin before governments And I think that a good thing

1322
01:28:38,830 --> 01:28:40,450
And I think it's by design.

1323
01:28:40,550 --> 01:28:43,050
And so why isn't Bitcoin up only hyper-Bitcoinization?

1324
01:28:43,190 --> 01:28:45,370
It's like, well, there's almost like physical limitations

1325
01:28:45,370 --> 01:28:47,930
to, you know, like if you're a central bank,

1326
01:28:49,310 --> 01:28:51,350
you know, someone asked me on my podcast

1327
01:28:51,350 --> 01:28:52,650
during the live Q&A yesterday,

1328
01:28:53,550 --> 01:28:55,770
said, well, why doesn't the United States,

1329
01:28:55,770 --> 01:28:59,970
China's buying a lot of gold, record amounts of gold. They're clearly remonetizing gold. And if

1330
01:28:59,970 --> 01:29:04,890
they're our enemy, why don't we sell all of our gold, crash the gold price, and buy a bunch of

1331
01:29:04,890 --> 01:29:11,210
Bitcoins? It's like, well, Bitcoin's only worth a trillion dollars. So if Bitcoin's going to become

1332
01:29:11,210 --> 01:29:16,750
a $50 trillion asset and the United States is going to own 49 trillion of it and then sell it

1333
01:29:16,750 --> 01:29:24,950
to who? And to themselves? It's going to be adopted in this very methodical

1334
01:29:24,950 --> 01:29:29,910
way. I think that's the really key point. It's like, we don't know if that was on purpose or

1335
01:29:29,910 --> 01:29:33,590
if that was an accident of the design, but we do know it's the only reason it's still here and it's

1336
01:29:33,590 --> 01:29:36,470
still interesting because if it didn't have that supply schedule, it just wouldn't be.

1337
01:29:36,550 --> 01:29:40,170
If Satoshi went to Goldman Sachs and said, hey, I solved the Byzantine Generals problem. I'd like

1338
01:29:40,170 --> 01:29:47,050
to IPO it on the New York Stock Exchange. Bitcoin would have failed. So it is a miracle. And the

1339
01:29:47,050 --> 01:29:53,450
innovation of using proof of work to say, you know, the current, because everyone is purchasing

1340
01:29:53,450 --> 01:30:00,130
Bitcoin, whether with fiat currency on strike or in mother nature's currency, which is energy.

1341
01:30:00,390 --> 01:30:06,910
But you have to do real work in the real world to get Bitcoins. No one's ever gotten them for free.

1342
01:30:07,150 --> 01:30:10,070
Apart from when they had the, what were they called? The faucets.

1343
01:30:10,210 --> 01:30:15,470
Sure. But that was someone else donating their real work in the real world. But the point is

1344
01:30:15,470 --> 01:30:21,710
Bitcoin has a very strict policy that you have to expend real work that someone else values in

1345
01:30:21,710 --> 01:30:26,170
order to obtain this thing. And the currency Satoshi used to fairly distribute Bitcoin is,

1346
01:30:26,310 --> 01:30:31,410
I'll take energy in exchange for newly minted coins. And it's not he'll take energy. The network

1347
01:30:31,410 --> 01:30:38,910
will take energy and use energy in exchange for newly minted coins. And it's such an ingenious

1348
01:30:38,910 --> 01:30:44,850
idea of that's how I'll decide who gets it. Not by their skin color, not by their eye color,

1349
01:30:44,970 --> 01:30:51,190
not by their hair color, but by whoever's able to harness the cheapest energy and channel it to

1350
01:30:51,190 --> 01:30:55,790
the network. And then to have the insight on top of that, well, what if everyone figures it out

1351
01:30:55,790 --> 01:30:59,830
and starts channeling a bunch of energy to the network? Or what if people get disenthused

1352
01:30:59,830 --> 01:31:03,270
and take the energy off of the network? How do we give it a consistent heartbeat?

1353
01:31:04,130 --> 01:31:08,570
Because if the thing starts beating too fast, it's going to have a heart attack.

1354
01:31:09,010 --> 01:31:13,710
If it doesn't beat enough, it's going to die because lack of blood flow. So how does it beat

1355
01:31:13,710 --> 01:31:19,770
just enough every 10 minutes on average? And to layer on the difficulty adjustment on top of that

1356
01:31:19,770 --> 01:31:24,850
And so that Bitcoin has a predictable heartbeat that everyone can rely on.

1357
01:31:24,850 --> 01:31:28,370
And the heart is going to beat a certain amount of time in the early days, which will bring

1358
01:31:28,370 --> 01:31:34,110
a certain crowd and bring the individual and not necessarily have the physical frame for

1359
01:31:34,110 --> 01:31:37,910
the institutions and the sovereigns to be able to actually monetize it.

1360
01:31:38,150 --> 01:31:44,010
And only 20 years later, it's a remarkable achievement.

1361
01:31:44,190 --> 01:31:46,670
It's probably one of the most impressive things I've ever seen.

1362
01:31:46,670 --> 01:31:58,710
Yeah, I don't know about you, but it still blows my mind the way that it was designed. And again, you have to just assume that everything was intentional because it's worked. But like to think this far ahead and the game theory of the whole thing, it's insane.

1363
01:31:58,710 --> 01:32:04,950
And going back to the first part of this episode, which is a different world, 21 and stuff,

1364
01:32:04,950 --> 01:32:14,710
but that's what inspires me is Satoshi, there was no ego involved. There's no statue of Satoshi,

1365
01:32:14,710 --> 01:32:21,590
he's not on Time Magazine. He didn't take the Bitcoins that he mined early. Yeah, the guy just

1366
01:32:21,590 --> 01:32:26,230
wanted, but that didn't represent lack of ambition just because, right? But the guy,

1367
01:32:27,670 --> 01:32:37,510
yeah, he cared deeply about building and crafting something that worked and solved a very specific

1368
01:32:37,510 --> 01:32:44,470
problem. And it was good enough to last long enough to then bleed into solving like many other

1369
01:32:44,470 --> 01:32:48,470
problems. But I don't think Satoshi had the ambition of fix the money, fix the world, or

1370
01:32:48,470 --> 01:32:54,090
or had the foresight to figure out that Bitcoin would also inspire people to stop eating carbs.

1371
01:32:54,450 --> 01:32:56,450
I don't think he had that foresight.

1372
01:32:56,570 --> 01:32:58,430
I think he was like, well, hold on a second.

1373
01:32:58,950 --> 01:33:03,290
The core issue with money as it exists today are the central parties that are required.

1374
01:33:03,730 --> 01:33:07,550
And in order for me to fix that and have a money that doesn't have that reliance,

1375
01:33:07,590 --> 01:33:09,530
I got to solve the Byzantine generals problem.

1376
01:33:09,810 --> 01:33:13,790
And it's just, okay, well, if I put that, okay, I think I solved it.

1377
01:33:13,850 --> 01:33:14,650
What do you guys think?

1378
01:33:14,650 --> 01:33:18,810
And it was just caring about the craft, the lack of ego

1379
01:33:18,810 --> 01:33:21,850
and the level of humility and integrity that that took

1380
01:33:21,850 --> 01:33:24,270
is so inspiring.

1381
01:33:24,270 --> 01:33:27,270
And to engineer something so well, that's so focused

1382
01:33:27,270 --> 01:33:31,330
and so simple and so honest that it's able to scale

1383
01:33:31,330 --> 01:33:34,610
and last as long as it did and grow into solving

1384
01:33:34,610 --> 01:33:35,510
so many other things.

1385
01:33:36,110 --> 01:33:38,010
So Bitcoin's won in so many ways,

1386
01:33:38,250 --> 01:33:51,726
but getting back to something we said earlier about the number of people who are all holding self Bitcoin do you think there been a slight failure there Because we have ETF adoption we have institutional adoption there a nation state that has Bitcoin on the balance sheet

1387
01:33:52,046 --> 01:33:56,346
but only, let's guess, 5 million people holding on-chain Bitcoin.

1388
01:33:56,566 --> 01:33:57,206
Is that a failure?

1389
01:33:57,586 --> 01:33:59,426
No, I don't think so.

1390
01:34:00,526 --> 01:34:02,646
You know, like when I was saying Bitcoin adoption,

1391
01:34:03,186 --> 01:34:06,086
I'm thinking people have a vague understanding

1392
01:34:06,086 --> 01:34:09,746
or some remote understanding of what it is and why it's different,

1393
01:34:09,746 --> 01:34:10,546
and why it's important.

1394
01:34:10,986 --> 01:34:14,186
I would say a lot of the ETF holders have that.

1395
01:34:14,326 --> 01:34:15,686
Like I would say Larry Fink has that.

1396
01:34:15,766 --> 01:34:17,606
A lot of the fund managers that I meet

1397
01:34:17,606 --> 01:34:19,846
that get exposure via the ETF have that.

1398
01:34:20,226 --> 01:34:22,266
And that's to me what matters

1399
01:34:22,266 --> 01:34:24,146
because it's the conscious, you know,

1400
01:34:24,466 --> 01:34:26,546
people say I'm in it for the technology.

1401
01:34:26,546 --> 01:34:28,026
I'm not in it for the price.

1402
01:34:28,586 --> 01:34:29,006
That's what-

1403
01:34:29,006 --> 01:34:29,566
I'm in it for both.

1404
01:34:29,886 --> 01:34:30,086
Right.

1405
01:34:30,186 --> 01:34:31,986
But you know, your question,

1406
01:34:33,186 --> 01:34:35,106
it doesn't imply that,

1407
01:34:35,246 --> 01:34:37,566
but it alludes to this culture of like,

1408
01:34:37,566 --> 01:34:44,026
what's ETF adoption if it isn't, you know, someone holding their own keys? Like, we're in it for the

1409
01:34:44,026 --> 01:34:48,986
tech. We're in it for the revolution. We're not in it for, you know, for the number go up. And my

1410
01:34:48,986 --> 01:34:55,186
response to that is the number go up is the only metric that matters in Bitcoin because it tells

1411
01:34:55,186 --> 01:35:01,546
us how much of the world is storing their cash balance, their time, energy effort, how much of

1412
01:35:01,546 --> 01:35:05,966
the world is monetizing Bitcoin. That's the only thing that matters. When the price goes up, Bitcoin

1413
01:35:05,966 --> 01:35:10,686
is getting more adopted. When the price goes down, Bitcoin is getting less adopted because people

1414
01:35:10,686 --> 01:35:19,246
are storing less of their effort and less of their future in this thing. And so to me, that's what

1415
01:35:19,246 --> 01:35:25,106
matters. And if people can, people are, cause every single day you have to make a monetary

1416
01:35:25,106 --> 01:35:30,646
decision. People don't appreciate that. Every single day I wake up and I say, okay, I'm storing

1417
01:35:30,646 --> 01:35:37,146
my future and the work I've done in the past in Bitcoin. Do I still want to do that? And I make

1418
01:35:37,146 --> 01:35:44,486
a conscious decision. Yeah, I do. I almost re-employ Bitcoin to be my money and weapon of

1419
01:35:44,486 --> 01:35:49,946
choice to provide for my future and protect the work I've done in the past every day. I wake up,

1420
01:35:50,106 --> 01:35:55,286
I go, yep, this is still the right choice. And so the fact that people are making those decisions

1421
01:35:55,286 --> 01:36:00,566
at the margin via the ETF, via these instruments, that's fine. Of course, I think that there's

1422
01:36:01,526 --> 01:36:07,366
counterparty risk implied in that. And then the most pure expression of Bitcoin is owning it in

1423
01:36:07,366 --> 01:36:13,366
cold storage, buying the physical. I'm not comfortable holding it with the state or with

1424
01:36:14,486 --> 01:36:22,006
a fund or whatever. But to me, adoption is making that conscious decision at the margins of,

1425
01:36:22,006 --> 01:36:28,086
okay, I could do treasuries, I could do dollars, I could do Nvidia stock. Nah, I'm going to do

1426
01:36:28,086 --> 01:36:32,806
Bitcoin. And that's, we're monetizing a thing in real time. To me, that's adoption, you know?

1427
01:36:32,806 --> 01:36:38,246
Yeah, makes sense. Why do you think that gold had a bull run last year when we didn't? Because

1428
01:36:38,246 --> 01:36:42,486
you would expect the two to move in tandem and every bull run we've broken new all-time highs

1429
01:36:42,486 --> 01:36:55,246
versus gold? Because I think that China is the answer. I think that gold is being reintroduced

1430
01:36:55,246 --> 01:37:04,206
into the financial system as a reserve asset. And I think a lot of that was East and China.

1431
01:37:04,206 --> 01:37:12,346
And I don't know if who was buying gold in size was competing. Gold was competing with Bitcoin.

1432
01:37:12,346 --> 01:37:24,306
I don't know if Bitcoin was an option. I view it as they were rejecting the notion of sovereign debt and treasuries and re-monetizing a neutral thing.

1433
01:37:24,526 --> 01:37:31,646
But I don't think Bitcoin was actually competing for that monetary use case. It's just not big enough.

1434
01:37:31,646 --> 01:37:36,506
and so that is my honest answer

1435
01:37:36,506 --> 01:37:39,606
because going back to what we were talking about

1436
01:37:39,606 --> 01:37:45,746
Bitcoin implied in it is individual and retail adoption

1437
01:37:45,746 --> 01:37:48,366
implied in it is small medium sized businesses

1438
01:37:48,366 --> 01:37:51,506
and now institutions and treasury company adoption and stuff

1439
01:37:51,506 --> 01:37:54,846
there is not a sovereign bid yet

1440
01:37:54,846 --> 01:37:57,326
and so the fact that so many central banks

1441
01:37:57,326 --> 01:37:59,086
and China and everyone was

1442
01:37:59,086 --> 01:38:09,346
If you look at the growth of the Chinese international payment system, I think that's it, C-I-P-E-S, skyrocketing.

1443
01:38:09,506 --> 01:38:22,066
And people are settling trade in their currency, but their currency is effectively gold-backed at this point because they're taking all of their trade surplus and they're just recycling it into gold.

1444
01:38:22,066 --> 01:38:26,186
And so you're seeing this like re-monetization, this reintroduction.

1445
01:38:26,186 --> 01:38:31,366
And the US government is actually exporting non-monetary gold to help settle trade deficits.

1446
01:38:31,366 --> 01:38:36,526
And so I think gold is, I think it's good.

1447
01:38:36,526 --> 01:38:44,626
Well, it's good for Bitcoin because it's promotional of the long-term thesis that sovereign debt and paper claims are worthless.

1448
01:38:45,506 --> 01:38:48,566
Right. And, but it just was a different bid.

1449
01:38:48,906 --> 01:38:49,866
It was a different bid.

1450
01:38:49,866 --> 01:39:04,282
the liquidity hasn flowed all the way down yet It this kind of K thing And you think that just again we too small Yeah well so it

1451
01:39:04,282 --> 01:39:05,982
I would say it's just a practical question of,

1452
01:39:05,982 --> 01:39:08,582
okay, China wants to,

1453
01:39:08,582 --> 01:39:11,462
so let's say China's bought trillions of dollars of gold

1454
01:39:11,462 --> 01:39:12,242
over the last few years.

1455
01:39:12,242 --> 01:39:13,382
Like how would they have,

1456
01:39:13,382 --> 01:39:15,822
let's say they wanted to do it, like how?

1457
01:39:15,822 --> 01:39:17,802
But like, are you surprised they didn't even do

1458
01:39:17,802 --> 01:39:19,502
even 1% in Bitcoin?

1459
01:39:19,502 --> 01:39:21,262
No, but who's to say they didn't?

1460
01:39:21,262 --> 01:39:21,442
True.

1461
01:39:22,442 --> 01:39:23,422
I think they are.

1462
01:39:24,422 --> 01:39:31,282
If I were a sovereign and I knew that I couldn't take trillion dollar trade surplus and smash buy, you know what I would do?

1463
01:39:31,502 --> 01:39:32,062
Stop mining.

1464
01:39:32,182 --> 01:39:32,542
Mining.

1465
01:39:33,282 --> 01:39:34,282
You know what they're doing?

1466
01:39:34,642 --> 01:39:34,982
Mining.

1467
01:39:35,882 --> 01:39:36,282
Yeah.

1468
01:39:36,902 --> 01:39:37,842
I think they are.

1469
01:39:38,222 --> 01:39:39,722
I wouldn't be convinced that they're not.

1470
01:39:40,342 --> 01:39:44,622
But that's the amazing part is like it's all fair.

1471
01:39:45,002 --> 01:39:46,942
Like I'm DCAing, China's mining.

1472
01:39:47,702 --> 01:39:50,702
Like they, I don't think they can smash buy a trillion.

1473
01:39:51,262 --> 01:39:57,622
And Bitcoin will build this skeletal frame with time that can be supportive of that level

1474
01:39:57,622 --> 01:39:58,622
of liquidity.

1475
01:39:58,622 --> 01:40:05,102
And I think we're getting there very, very soon because what's so important is the halvings,

1476
01:40:05,102 --> 01:40:06,842
cutting the inflation rate.

1477
01:40:06,842 --> 01:40:10,622
Now the stock to flow of Bitcoin is better than gold.

1478
01:40:10,622 --> 01:40:17,122
So I would say Bitcoin has achieved the skeletal frame, and now it needs a higher floating price.

1479
01:40:17,122 --> 01:40:22,402
The most attractive thing about a gold or about a Bitcoin is it's like a zero yielding

1480
01:40:22,402 --> 01:40:25,962
bond but can go infinitely high in price.

1481
01:40:25,962 --> 01:40:31,182
A bond can only go so high because then the yield hits zero, right?

1482
01:40:31,182 --> 01:40:32,422
And vice versa.

1483
01:40:32,422 --> 01:40:37,682
Governments won't let bonds go so low because the yield hits too high for them to afford.

1484
01:40:37,682 --> 01:40:43,162
So Bitcoin is like it's zero yielding, but it's infinite price.

1485
01:40:43,162 --> 01:40:46,922
And that's kind of like the escape hatch of all of the needed money printing and liquidity

1486
01:40:46,922 --> 01:40:50,842
like where's it going to go? People say, oh, they need to debase the dollar. The dollar needs to get

1487
01:40:50,842 --> 01:40:56,202
weaker. Sure. But against what? Probably if the currency of choice to debase the dollar against

1488
01:40:56,202 --> 01:41:01,642
is the Chinese currency to help rebalance this trade. But think of it this way, Danny.

1489
01:41:03,482 --> 01:41:08,922
If China ran this trillion dollar trade surplus, let's say, or whatever, based on the amount of,

1490
01:41:08,922 --> 01:41:12,602
and they didn't pour it all into gold, obviously. But let's say, based on the amount of gold that

1491
01:41:12,602 --> 01:41:16,982
that China has been importing and purchasing as a sovereign,

1492
01:41:17,642 --> 01:41:19,682
and they ran a surplus of a trillion,

1493
01:41:20,322 --> 01:41:22,082
and I think that was globally.

1494
01:41:22,202 --> 01:41:23,682
I don't know how much of that was US-specific.

1495
01:41:24,582 --> 01:41:26,762
What would the price of gold had to have been

1496
01:41:26,762 --> 01:41:28,162
for the trade to be neutral?

1497
01:41:28,862 --> 01:41:29,642
Does that make sense?

1498
01:41:29,642 --> 01:41:29,742
Yeah.

1499
01:41:29,882 --> 01:41:32,282
Where they ran such a...

1500
01:41:32,282 --> 01:41:34,322
So the amount of imported gold,

1501
01:41:34,682 --> 01:41:37,722
well, the way you can balance the trade is very simple.

1502
01:41:37,942 --> 01:41:40,362
If gold was $25,000 an ounce,

1503
01:41:41,102 --> 01:41:42,562
China didn't run a surplus at all.

1504
01:41:42,602 --> 01:41:49,602
trade was neutral. And that's like a very mind shift, interesting way to think about it as,

1505
01:41:50,262 --> 01:41:57,302
oh, that's what it would mean to base the dollar dramatically and rebalance the world's trade.

1506
01:41:57,842 --> 01:42:01,602
The answer to all of this, like I can solve the United States problem in five seconds.

1507
01:42:01,902 --> 01:42:07,902
Don't be the world reserve currency. What comes with that is an artificially strong currency and

1508
01:42:07,902 --> 01:42:14,082
artificially strong US assets because people have innate demand for your money just because they need

1509
01:42:14,082 --> 01:42:18,922
it for trade. They need it for settlement. They need it to repay debts. So the US currency is far

1510
01:42:18,922 --> 01:42:25,682
too strong. So implied in rebalancing trade and everything that everyone's talking about is gold,

1511
01:42:25,782 --> 01:42:32,462
25,000, Bitcoin, whatever, 1 million. But it's this idea of what's something that can float in

1512
01:42:32,462 --> 01:42:37,082
price and absorb all of this liquidity and all of this debasement. It's not treasuries.

1513
01:42:37,082 --> 01:42:39,422
That's why I think gold got a bid.

1514
01:42:39,422 --> 01:42:43,422
Just the world's repricing fiat paper claims lower

1515
01:42:43,422 --> 01:42:45,422
and everything else higher.

1516
01:42:45,422 --> 01:42:47,262
And Bitcoin will catch its bid eventually.

1517
01:42:47,262 --> 01:42:49,262
Do you think next bull market, whenever that might be,

1518
01:42:49,262 --> 01:42:50,762
will have a proper bull market?

1519
01:42:50,762 --> 01:42:52,262
Yes, I do.

1520
01:42:52,262 --> 01:42:53,262
Let's go.

1521
01:42:53,262 --> 01:42:57,262
What? That's a, you know,

1522
01:42:57,262 --> 01:43:00,202
the next bull market will be a bull market, of course.

1523
01:43:00,202 --> 01:43:02,902
I mean, a proper bull market, like we used to have.

1524
01:43:02,902 --> 01:43:04,802
Yeah, I do. I do.

1525
01:43:04,802 --> 01:43:11,582
I do. I, you know, I think I'm not sure what this Warsh guy is going to do. The market is claiming

1526
01:43:11,582 --> 01:43:16,082
that he's going to cut now based on. Oh, they, I thought they were still. Excuse me, excuse me,

1527
01:43:16,202 --> 01:43:22,342
hike. You're right. I'm sorry. Uh, that, that he's going to hike and, uh, and the math just doesn't

1528
01:43:22,342 --> 01:43:28,962
work. I mean, it's very likely politics related of, I think the fed board is putting a lot of

1529
01:43:28,962 --> 01:43:35,562
pressure on him according to Trump and he needs to look independent. Um, but he, that's very

1530
01:43:35,562 --> 01:43:41,282
unsustainable for a variety of reasons. And he'll likely blow someone up by doing that. Um, but

1531
01:43:41,282 --> 01:43:48,042
cutting is not an option either because of what seems to be sticky, fairly persistent inflation.

1532
01:43:48,602 --> 01:43:54,942
So yeah, I mean, someone has to lose. The loss has to be realized. Uh, standing still is not an

1533
01:43:54,942 --> 01:43:56,282
Like one of the most beautiful things

1534
01:43:56,282 --> 01:43:59,282
about the game of chess is you're not allowed to pass.

1535
01:43:59,282 --> 01:44:00,442
You know?

1536
01:44:00,442 --> 01:44:01,942
You got to make your move.

1537
01:44:01,942 --> 01:44:04,282
Yeah, we call it Zugswang.

1538
01:44:04,282 --> 01:44:06,082
Is every moves a bad move.

1539
01:44:06,082 --> 01:44:07,822
You wish you could say, I'm not going to move,

1540
01:44:07,822 --> 01:44:09,022
but you got to move.

1541
01:44:09,022 --> 01:44:09,942
And so,

1542
01:44:09,979 --> 01:44:12,879
So I assume that they'll print the money

1543
01:44:12,879 --> 01:44:15,639
and keep the empire alive, but we'll see.

1544
01:44:16,119 --> 01:44:17,159
Thank God Bitcoin exists.

1545
01:44:17,479 --> 01:44:18,599
Jack, this has been awesome.

1546
01:44:18,839 --> 01:44:19,279
Yeah, good.

1547
01:44:19,399 --> 01:44:22,019
I'm really genuinely excited to see what you do next.

1548
01:44:22,119 --> 01:44:22,619
Jack's back.

1549
01:44:22,879 --> 01:44:23,239
I'm back.

1550
01:44:23,499 --> 01:44:24,339
I think this is going to be awesome.

1551
01:44:24,579 --> 01:44:25,059
Thank you, man.

1552
01:44:25,219 --> 01:44:25,959
Yeah, thanks, dude.

1553
01:44:39,979 --> 01:45:09,959
Thank you.