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end the Fed. There should be no Federal Reserve. We should have a sound money unit that we all

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transact in, and the price of that money should be set by the free market, and that's called the

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interest rate, period. Nothing else. There should be no bailouts. If you fail, you fail. The chairman

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sets the tone, and the dissents, even the dissents are somewhat planned. I mean, it's all

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kabuki theater to make it look like, oh, we've got these 12 wise people trying to figure out

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exactly what the monetary policy should be. And they're so thoughtful and deliberate.

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And they're going to get it absolutely right. And since 1913, they've done nothing but fuck it up.

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What they're going to do, in my opinion, is this decade, and I've said this for a long time,

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this is going to be a decade of inflation. It started in 2020. We're six years into it. We're

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not anywhere close to the end of it. Before this is all over, we'll have double-digit inflation.

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We almost had it last time. We got to nine. We're going to get double-digit inflation.

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The good news is, you know, the economy will probably be cooking and unemployment will be relatively low.

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How are you doing anyway, sir?

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I'm doing great. No complaints. It's all good.

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You know, looking forward to a sound money future.

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Well, yeah, me too.

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We were just saying before the show, the sentiment in Bitcoin seems incredibly low right now.

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I'm hoping that's a bottom signal.

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Like, I don't think, I think even during sort of the FTX crash, it was a better sentiment than it is today.

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Yeah, I'm trying to remember that.

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It was pretty bleak then too.

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But yeah, probably the most amazing thing about this one is you kind of got Bitcoiners eating Bitcoiners.

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And that just drives me nuts because we're all on the same team.

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You know?

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100%.

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It's funny, like then everyone banded together because that was kind of like, although obviously hugely impacted Bitcoin.

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It was kind of a shit coin-y thing that was fraud, SBF doing its thing over there.

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It didn't really impact us.

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And it felt like everyone kind of, all the Bitcoiners were on the same side there, whereas

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now there's so much infighting.

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They're fighting over Saylor.

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They're fighting over Bit110.

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It was a sleazeball trashed and blew up.

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And so all crypto got thrown out, including us.

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Yeah, no, you're right.

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I mean, we were all in it together.

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And hey, it's 15.

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It's down hugely, but so what?

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Right?

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And yeah, now, and I think, you know, I think a lot of people really kind of bought into

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the narrative.

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we hit 100 we hit 126 you know we're on our way to 200 and then you know it didn't happen and so

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you've got a recipe for disappointment and anger and so on and so forth and nobody ever said this

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was going to be easy but say one of the things i really take comfort in danny is is that you know

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if you look at all the drawdowns i mean you look at any asset class you look at the history of the

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asset class right if you look at the drawdowns in bitcoin i mean you know what we had 90 75 80 i

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I mean, they're all big.

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I mean, you know, over 60%.

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And as painful as this has been, you know, October we had a high, what, 124, 126.

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You know, now I think the low on this one is 60.

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So just a tad over a 50% drawdown, I mean, hey, this is nothing.

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And to me, that speaks to kind of the institutional adoption.

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You know, there's a strong bid at the low end of the power law is kind of how I see it.

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So I'm just not worried.

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you know it's like everybody else i'm impatient you know i'd like to see it go to 200 tomorrow

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but you know if that happens next year so that's okay yeah i mean if you'd have told me five six

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seven years ago that we're only gonna have 50 drawdowns i'd have bit your hand up for it so i

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guess like we can't complain about this we're moving in the right direction i mean if if 60

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is the new 15 you know all right i can live with that because i know what that means when we do get

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into the upswing phase that we're going to 180 or 200 or 240 or something. It's going to be much

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higher than it was the last time around. So here we are. Yeah, Bitcoin will continue to win. But I

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want to talk to you about everything that's just happened at the Fed because Kevin Walsh just had

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his first meeting. There's loads of stuff I picked out a bit that I thought were interesting. I think

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it seems like he wants the Fed to kind of change course on some of the stuff that they're doing.

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But before I get into my thoughts, I want to hear your thoughts. You'll know this far back

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than I do. So what was your general take on it? We just, and it'll be interesting to compare our

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perspective. So first of all, may I call for a confession? I actually thought he would say some

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dovish stuff. I mean, I feel like they need to be dovish eventually. They, you know, they're,

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you know, they had to turn QE back on, although they call it reserve management in December

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and they've been buying the long treasury bonds with, you know, the short-term notes. And so,

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So, you know, I see strains in the monetary system and the 10-year hit 470 and the Japanese, you know, 10-year went up and the yen is struggling to go, you know, look like it's going to go through 160.

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So it seems to me like, you know, financial conditions are kind of indicating that they're going to have to print here at some point.

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So I kind of thought they would do it.

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And in part, also, I thought that because pre being appointed, he had kind of said, hey, you know, we're going to use this trim medium PCI, which is, you know, 100 points, 100 basic points lower.

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So 2.3, it's the Dallas version.

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And by the way, he said, I kind of see myself like Greenspan.

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I think all this AI is going to lead to productivity and therefore we can have lower rates and not have inflation.

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So so I kind of thought he might surprise on the inflationary side.

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I was wrong.

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I was dead ass wrong.

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Um, what he did was very interesting and this just shows how they're so good at always changing

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the game.

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I mean, basically he came out and said nothing, you know, like zero guidance.

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I mean, it was like, it was like Greenspan, you know, like if you understand what I'm

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trying to say, then I haven't done a good job of, of, of delivering my message.

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I mean, he gave literally no message.

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You know, we, we are not giving forward guidance.

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We don't know where we're going.

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We're going to do a big overhaul of everything.

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and like the bureau the good bureaucrat that he is you know um we're going to create these new

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committees i i um well he had a name for him i the task force the ai task force yeah mr task force

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so we have a task force five task force to deal with all these different issues okay great

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um and so you know i guess the way he decided to play it was and i i take this because trump

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you know, reacted positively to what he did. I think the game, it's clear to me that what the

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game plan is, is okay, he can't come in and immediately cut rates because he looks like

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he's bowing to Trump. He's got to establish that he's a mean, tough, fulker-like, you know,

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sound money guy. And he iterated that, you know, the 2% is too high and probably the inflation is

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too high and we are going to get it back to Tariq. Said that multiple times. I was a very,

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he emphasized that message. Okay. That's important. Um, you know, didn't say how,

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and then and then he said you know we got these committees going to work on these problems and

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i think what he's going to do is he's going to throw the inflation committee you know a bunch

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of gobbledygook and they're going to come back and tell him no you know yes sir we you know we

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actually can cut rates because trim mean pci is lower and you are getting the productivity gains

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you got you thought you were going to get and i i think he is going to cut he's going to have to

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eventually whether it's the next meeting the one after that my guess is the next meeting

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because the midterms are coming up.

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And so, you know, I suspect at that point,

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but at that point he will be able to say,

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hey, look, I'm a hawkish guy,

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but I'm telling you the right thing to do here

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is to look through this data and cut.

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And that's what Basant was saying too,

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that the data is,

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I couldn't believe Basant used the word he said,

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he called it transitory.

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I was like, dude, that's not a very good word.

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I mean, that kind of got it,

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got run out of the rail.

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So I was wrong,

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but I don't think I'm entirely wrong longer term.

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I think he's ultimately going to have to,

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crump and cut rates. Now, his whole ballot sheet reduction thing, and he also calmed the bond

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market by saying he intended to do that. I'm not sure. I don't think he can do that. That's where I

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part ways with this whole Fed is that they are a machine for creating money. I've had a chart that

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I put up on Twitter a lot that shows the growth of debt and the growth of GDP, and the two lines

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are separating because debt is growing faster than GDP. Well, that's a problem. Eventually,

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you can't support the debt unless you create more M2 to make the nominal GDP higher. Maybe not real

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GDP, but at least nominal. So I think, you know, I still think my big print thesis is real. I don't

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know whether it happens in a big print or a medium print or, you know, the time, who knows, but I

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think it's real. But I guess I was kind of, you know, I thought to myself, I mean, he also sounded

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kind of arrogant i mean i mean my partner said it was kind of like ted lasso does a fed meeting you

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know like you know arrogant and folksy and we're gonna get it right and it's all gonna be okay and

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trust us i'm like really dude i mean come on so um you know we'll see what happens obviously

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you know if he had been more dovish our stuff would have you know taken off gold silver bitcoin

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but he wasn't and here we are but you know it's not like we got hit hard either i mean he

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And remember, he didn't say rate hike.

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He just said, I'm not going to tell you what we're going to do.

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So, you know, like Greenspan, he's kind of letting everybody read their own, read it and say to themselves whatever they want.

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I mean, I'm sure there are those people who think, oh, he's going to slay inflation and be hawkish.

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And there are people like me who think, no, he's going to ultimately cut.

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He's just not saying it yet.

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He's trying to establish his credibility.

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So I came over.

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I was disappointed because, you know, I want to get on with the show here.

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They're going to print.

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Why don't they just do it?

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But, you know, I understand why he's doing it the way he's doing it.

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He had to establish that he's not a Trump butt boy and that he was willing to be, you know, firm on inflation.

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Give some credibility.

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You know, I mean, to be honest with you, the whole goddamn thing is a charade.

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I mean, the 12 people are voting, all the stuff they say.

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They make it sound like it's so damn scientific.

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And in fact, it's just, you know, finger in the air.

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It's all vibes.

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Wild ass guests.

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total gaslighting and bullshit.

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Do you know what I mean?

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Mathematically, they are going to print money.

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They always have printed money. They will always

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have to print money. Unless,

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I mean, where I'm wrong, where we are

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wrong is if the government gets responsible

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and balances budget.

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Never going to happen. Yeah, I just

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checked those numbers and we're running at

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$2 trillion or more. And the war

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didn't help.

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We're just

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waiting. We're waiting for Godot and it's a little annoying.

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I'm annoyed. Everyone's annoyed, but it is what it is. I'm very comfortable that we're on the right

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side of this. So that's how I thought. How did you see it? I mean, probably quite similar. One

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of the things that I did think was really interesting in what he said was he's going to

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have, I think, an inflation task force where they're going to go, I think he used the term

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back to first principles on what inflation is, which to me sounded like he was going to reinvent

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what inflation is so it fits his narrative better.

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And then on the other part of that,

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he also said that he cares about the left part of the decimal place,

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not the right.

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So he's essentially, in that said,

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he doesn't mind if inflation is 2.9%.

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As long as it's got a two at the start, he's okay.

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So it felt like they were moving the goalposts a lot

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with both what inflation is and how it's calculated

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and what the Fed are happy with.

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Which, to me, it seemed like he was setting up

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to start cutting rates and being a bit looser.

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um but i but who knows like what what do you think they're going to do when they go and look at like

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the inflation data and what it is do you think they are going to reinvent the the wheel on that

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they could i mean they could use the trim mean pci which throws out the outliers um you know there's

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there are lots of different ways to measure inflation and you know i mean and some you know

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i mean i mean we we interpret inflation as higher prices but sometimes higher prices occur and look

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and it is i mean inflation is when something costs more we all call it inflation but

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sometimes it's a supply issue, right? I mean, you know, to a certain extent, some of the inflation

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we're feeling right now is the fact that we had a war and the Strait of Hormuz got closed and

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oil was $60 or $50 pre-war and it squirted up into the 100 range. And so that got passed into

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everything. So that was, you know, that's not M2 growth directly. That's actually a supply issue,

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you know, a tightness of supply, you know, causing prices to go up. Now, you know, we all interpret

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it as inflation, but it's not M2 inflation. So, you know, there's just a lot of things. I mean,

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and there's this measure and I've been meaning to look into it. I haven't had the time to get on

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Claude and Chet to UPT and dig into it a lot, but there's some measure called truflation. Some of

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your listeners may know something about it. Apparently it's pretty low. And so, you know,

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I'm not sure exactly what they're doing or how they're calculating it, but you know, this is

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lying with statistics. I mean, you can, you know, I mean, you can, you know, you can basically make

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anything true if you massage the numbers hard enough. So yes, I picked up on both those points

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that you said, and that's my estimation of how this is going to go down. But we'll just have to

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see. I also think it's interesting. He did say, you know, he said, look, I want to shrink the

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balance sheet. But I remember I read the statement where he said that very carefully. This was a week

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or two ago, or maybe even longer. And he, you know, he also kind of said absent, you know,

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extraordinary conditions. And I thought, you know, I don't know if he used those exact words,

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but he said, all, you know, markets being calm or in normal conditions, I think he said,

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in normal conditions, I want to shrink the balance sheet. Okay, well, that's leaving yourself the

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exception for what Hank Paulson recently talked about as the break glass moment And you and I haven spoken I spoken on other pods about this but you and I haven spoken about this I don know if you saw it but sometime in the last six weeks Hank Paulson so he the architect of 2008 and you know the bailouts and all

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And he comes and he's retired.

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He's rich and ex-Goldwyn-Sacks, ex-Treasury secretary.

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And he just decides to come out.

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And he hasn't made any noise.

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I mean, he hasn't been active in anything for, you know, since then, really.

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I guess he wrote a book.

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But, and he comes, he decides to come out on Bloomberg and say, you know, this debt thing is really somewhat of a problem.

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And we've got a lot of debt and it's building up.

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It's getting large relative to underlying economy, you know, blah, blah, blah.

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And, you know, there could be a real problem here at some point in the future.

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And it could even lead to what I would call a break the glass kind of moment in the debt markets.

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And we ought to be probably thinking about what our plan is if and when that occurs.

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Now, that really, I was like, wow, because that's, that's what we all think could occur, right?

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I mean, the debt will be too large relative to the GDP and they'll have to print more money to address that discrepancy.

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And so here's the former Treasury Secretary coming out, you know, unprompted and saying it.

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But I don't think he was unprompted.

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I think somebody at fairly high levels said, hey, why don't you go float this trial balloon?

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And he did.

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And so to me, that was kind of a warning.

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And there have been others who've said it.

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I mean, hell, even Powell used to say, you know, this can't go on forever.

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this debt growing faster than GDP. So, you know, they kind of know it in the back of their minds.

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And, uh, um, you know, I mean, I, I think where we get the big print, where my book looks right

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is if something really breaks and it kind of, everything cascades into a correlation of one

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and there's just not enough money in the system. And, you know, then, I mean, um, you know, the

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bomber and, and the warning signs for that, that I watch are the 10, the U S 10 year, the Japanese

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10 year and the Japanese yen, because it's where all the carry trade is funneled through. And so,

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So, you know, right now they're all under control and I'm sure that, you know, Treasury Department watches them very, very closely too.

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But my point is that if something were to very quickly, you know, if we were to have like a Liz Trust kind of moment, you know, like you guys had in Britain, you know, the monetary fire hoses would be brought to bear very, very quickly.

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And at that point in time, you know, our stuff just goes bananas.

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So, and we'll just have to see.

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I'm not guaranteeing that's the outcome,

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but I think it's in the realm of possible outcomes, right?

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00:15:53,858 --> 00:15:55,457
If you hold Bitcoin for long enough,

247
00:15:55,558 --> 00:15:57,438
there's probably going to come a time when you need some dollars.

248
00:15:57,817 --> 00:16:00,978
Maybe it's for a business expense, a tax bill, a property purchase,

249
00:16:01,038 --> 00:16:03,398
but whatever it is, you might not want to sell your Bitcoin.

250
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That's where Ledin comes in.

251
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Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin

252
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253
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254
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and they've operated through multiple Bitcoin cycles.

255
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And Ledin has now introduced new tiered rates,

256
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257
00:16:19,837 --> 00:16:21,798
It's just the larger the loan, the lower the rate,

258
00:16:21,918 --> 00:16:24,197
and you can see all the rates up front before you apply.

259
00:16:24,697 --> 00:16:26,457
The important part for me, though, is the custody.

260
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With Ledin's custodied loans,

261
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262
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263
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264
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265
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266
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267
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268
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269
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270
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271
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273
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274
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You wouldn't reuse a Bitcoin address,

275
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so why does your phone broadcast the same identifier for life?

276
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Every SIM has a static ID and carriers, ad networks,

277
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and bad actors all use it to track you.

278
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The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.

279
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280
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281
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so you look like a different subscriber every single day.

282
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And SIM swaps are off the table.

283
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284
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There's also no name at sign-up, no social security number,

285
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and there's no profile to build on you.

286
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287
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289
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290
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291
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294
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295
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296
00:18:44,297 --> 00:18:49,037
This sounds a little bit tinfoil hat, but do you think the Fed sometimes will look at the

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00:18:49,037 --> 00:18:53,838
situation, they'll realize that their sort of fiscal deficit's way too high, and they're

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waiting for something to break, kind of hoping something breaks so they can do this? Because

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00:18:57,818 --> 00:19:01,158
like just under normal market conditions, they don't. They can't, obviously.

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00:19:01,158 --> 00:19:04,737
Yeah, well, certainly something breaking gives them cover, no doubt.

301
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I think they would prefer to not have things break, though.

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I mean, it's embarrassing when they break.

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00:19:09,557 --> 00:19:14,838
It hurts their credibility when they have to come in with fire hoses, et cetera, et cetera.

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And we're all starting to detect a pattern.

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00:19:18,197 --> 00:19:19,737
I mean, my book talked about that.

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2008, okay, that's big print one.

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00:19:21,838 --> 00:19:23,178
COVID, that's big print two.

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00:19:23,918 --> 00:19:26,438
The next one, and each one kind of got kicked upstairs.

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00:19:26,438 --> 00:19:31,598
I mean, you know, 2008 was housing and financial leverage in the Wall Street banks.

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00:19:32,277 --> 00:19:36,918
You know, 2020 was an economy shutdown, but we kind of kicked it up at the sovereign debt level.

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And the next one's kind of the big one.

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I mean, if people start to lose faith in the currency, you know, we got to go to yield curve control.

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And that's what they did in World War II.

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00:19:46,578 --> 00:19:56,418
And, you know, I mean, as I've said in the past, I mean, if it really does break and it breaks hard, you know, the Fed might step in and say, okay, well, we stand ready to buy.

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00:19:56,438 --> 00:20:03,358
you know whatever treasury bills you folks want to sell you know um at a at a you know at a um at a

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fixed rate and um you know that rate will be low enough compared to inflation that the entire bond

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00:20:09,098 --> 00:20:16,517
market is going to look at the fed and say sold to you and and you know the total fed balance sheet

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00:20:16,517 --> 00:20:22,877
goes from you know what six something now it was nine at the peak you know to 18 because the bond

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00:20:22,877 --> 00:20:29,217
market is 30 trillion plus. So, you know, that's, that's one of those possibilities. And I actually

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think there's a decent chance of that happening, but, but they, you know, they don't want it to

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00:20:33,377 --> 00:20:38,717
happen and they're going to try to, you know, incrementally do it, you know, kind of keep

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everything together. I mean, and, you know, and they've done a pretty good job of that, right?

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00:20:42,197 --> 00:20:45,898
I mean, when, when Silicon Valley bank failed in 2023, I thought, okay, this was, this is it,

324
00:20:45,938 --> 00:20:49,617
here we go. They're going to, you know, it's going to be a huge, they patched it all back together.

325
00:20:49,617 --> 00:20:51,117
They created the BTFP.

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00:20:51,377 --> 00:20:54,838
They, Yellen came out and said she'd guarantee all the deposits, even though she couldn't

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because there's 17 trillion and the FDIC only had a couple hundred billion, but it got everybody

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calmed down.

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And there's a certain, you know, there's a certain bias in the United States that we're,

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00:21:05,098 --> 00:21:07,898
you know, we're doing a good job and we're still the best country in the world.

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00:21:07,898 --> 00:21:11,318
And we've got, you know, the best currency in the world and all that other stuff.

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00:21:11,357 --> 00:21:16,037
And to some degree, those things are true, but we're also, you know, the boat is also

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00:21:16,037 --> 00:21:16,517
leaking.

334
00:21:16,517 --> 00:21:20,857
and some of the weaknesses are showing.

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00:21:21,097 --> 00:21:25,757
And so, you know, I think there's a, you know, but, but do they want it to break?

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00:21:25,818 --> 00:21:26,457
I don't think so.

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00:21:26,517 --> 00:21:27,537
I think they want to incremental.

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00:21:27,757 --> 00:21:30,057
I mean, they want to, they want to just keep the system.

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My guess is that every single Fed chair just wants to keep the system going as is status

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quo, you know, 7% inflation, but call it two and, you know, become a hero and end up like

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Bernacki on the cover of magazine or Powell who got an award from Princeton as being, you know,

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00:21:47,877 --> 00:21:52,697
the most noteworthy alumni of the last, you know, 30 years or, you know, whatever it might be. And

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I'm sure that's what Worsh is aiming for as well. I mean, he doesn't want to have a fire

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breakout. And so, you know, that's why they're doing this reserve management program. They'll

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00:22:01,018 --> 00:22:04,898
do other things too. They'll, you know, I know there's a point of this out. My partner, James

346
00:22:04,898 --> 00:22:09,797
Lavish has, you know, really dug into the fact that the supplemental leverage ratios at the banks

347
00:22:09,797 --> 00:22:14,297
are changing and that'll allow, I mean, they'll probably try and do QEV of the banks.

348
00:22:14,697 --> 00:22:17,237
I mean, if they don't want to put them on their balance sheet, they'll try and get the

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00:22:17,237 --> 00:22:18,617
banks to put them on their balance sheet.

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And who knows?

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00:22:19,178 --> 00:22:23,777
I mean, they could probably create some new program, you know, some new acronym and new

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00:22:23,777 --> 00:22:26,318
program and give the banks an incentive to buy those treasuries.

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00:22:26,438 --> 00:22:30,277
I don't know what that'll look like, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them do that.

354
00:22:30,697 --> 00:22:32,457
But those treasuries got to get bought.

355
00:22:33,418 --> 00:22:37,777
And, um, if they don't get bought and people think that the currency is failing because,

356
00:22:37,777 --> 00:22:43,217
you know too much money is being printed and too much debt is being accumulated well then you know

357
00:22:43,217 --> 00:22:50,377
then problems arise i mean you know i mean i just saw that we had 1.3 trillion run rate last 12

358
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months at 1.3 trillion of interest expense in the united states and we've got i mean you know total

359
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defense spending was 900 billion and trump must take it one five of course that's not going to

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help the deficit and uh you know 1.3 trillion is a lot of money and and i've also seen that you

361
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know, depending on what you look at, that we've got a role, we've shifted all the debt to the

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short-term, you know, bonds or notes, and we've got a role nine plus trillion of it in the next 12

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months. And I mean, the one thing that cutting rates would do is it would actually help their

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P&L. I mean, if, you know, they're paying, they're now paying on these shorter notes, you know,

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three, three something. And, you know, if, if, if we took rates down to one and a half percent,

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I mean, we'd have a hell of a lot of inflation, they'd run it hot, but it would also cut the

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government's interest bill because they could sell notes at that level and, you know, okay,

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00:23:39,717 --> 00:23:45,237
great. They're not paying as much. Now, you know, again, eventually, you know, what, what all of

369
00:23:45,237 --> 00:23:50,777
these moves will trigger and what they're trying to prevent is Gresham's law where, you know,

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00:23:50,998 --> 00:23:54,998
I've studied hyperinflations. I wrote about them in my book. We all know how these monetary systems

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fail. Um, most of these other systems that fail, we're not the world's reserve currency in the

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most powerful country in the world. So we're not talking apples to apples, but a system,

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A monetary system fails when everyone knows they can't stop printing.

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When it becomes completely obvious to everyone that they can't stop printing the currency, they all abandon the currency.

375
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And the currency becomes worthless.

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There is no longer any demand for it.

377
00:24:18,297 --> 00:24:21,578
And so the question is, how close are we to that point?

378
00:24:21,638 --> 00:24:27,277
And I would say we're not that close, but we're closer today than we were before 2008 and before 2020.

379
00:24:27,277 --> 00:24:52,537
And, you know, I think with every piece of debt and every, you know, program that they put in, we get closer still. And so at some point in time, you know, it's like, this is like a critical stage. There's a name for it, but it's like when something changes form, like, you know, water goes to ice or boils and goes to gas.

380
00:24:52,537 --> 00:24:54,818
I mean, it's like, or an avalanche or a volcano.

381
00:24:55,017 --> 00:24:57,918
I mean, it can stay a certain way for a long point in time.

382
00:24:57,918 --> 00:25:02,477
And then you get the last snowflake that falls and bang, you know, the avalanche releases and goes down.

383
00:25:02,557 --> 00:25:05,337
I mean, the same, or the same would be true with, you know, a volcano.

384
00:25:05,517 --> 00:25:08,158
I mean, the magma can be bubbling around and nothing's going on.

385
00:25:08,217 --> 00:25:13,257
And then suddenly enough pressure gets built up and wow, you know, you got, you know, Mount St. Helens.

386
00:25:13,357 --> 00:25:18,457
I mean, it's like, and I kind of feel like there's a little bit of a parallel there with this monetary system.

387
00:25:18,457 --> 00:25:21,797
You know, they can keep piling on this debt and keep patching it up.

388
00:25:21,797 --> 00:25:23,457
they can keep doing all these various things.

389
00:25:23,818 --> 00:25:25,337
But at some point, you know,

390
00:25:25,377 --> 00:25:27,658
we could get to the point where, guess what?

391
00:25:27,717 --> 00:25:29,477
There just isn't enough money in the system.

392
00:25:29,477 --> 00:25:31,457
And if they don't cure it and cure it fast,

393
00:25:32,197 --> 00:25:34,597
you know, we got a correlation of one event.

394
00:25:34,898 --> 00:25:35,998
And we've seen them.

395
00:25:36,178 --> 00:25:36,977
We saw one in 08.

396
00:25:37,057 --> 00:25:38,057
We saw one in 2020.

397
00:25:38,898 --> 00:25:40,498
You know, nothing about the system has changed.

398
00:25:40,597 --> 00:25:42,517
So why wouldn't we see another one?

399
00:25:42,658 --> 00:25:43,617
That's kind of how I see it.

400
00:25:43,877 --> 00:25:43,977
Yeah.

401
00:25:44,457 --> 00:25:46,237
With you saying like this will fail

402
00:25:46,237 --> 00:25:47,818
when everyone realizes they can't stop printing,

403
00:25:47,938 --> 00:25:49,658
like you and I know they can't stop printing.

404
00:25:49,777 --> 00:25:51,117
Bitcoiners know, gold bugs know.

405
00:25:51,117 --> 00:25:52,877
like enough people know right now.

406
00:25:52,998 --> 00:25:53,918
And if they do it again,

407
00:25:54,237 --> 00:25:55,638
that sort of pool of people that know

408
00:25:55,638 --> 00:25:56,658
is just going to increase.

409
00:25:57,158 --> 00:25:59,418
With each event, it gets larger, right?

410
00:25:59,537 --> 00:26:01,178
08 created a bunch of gold bugs.

411
00:26:01,818 --> 00:26:03,938
2020 created a bunch of Bitcoin bugs.

412
00:26:04,678 --> 00:26:05,717
The next one will create, I mean,

413
00:26:06,138 --> 00:26:07,418
but you know, I mean, I don't know

414
00:26:07,418 --> 00:26:08,498
what percentage of the, I mean,

415
00:26:08,518 --> 00:26:10,018
I think most of the population knows

416
00:26:10,018 --> 00:26:11,057
that inflation is a problem.

417
00:26:11,258 --> 00:26:12,777
I mean, that's because they go to the grocery store.

418
00:26:12,837 --> 00:26:13,398
We all know that.

419
00:26:13,597 --> 00:26:15,617
But I also think most people in the population

420
00:26:15,617 --> 00:26:17,018
don't know what causes inflation.

421
00:26:17,357 --> 00:26:18,277
That's exactly right.

422
00:26:18,357 --> 00:26:18,918
That's the problem.

423
00:26:18,918 --> 00:26:30,638
I think there's probably 10 to 15% that really understand that the fundamental issue is the printing money and the Fed and the government deficits and have really connected all the dots, you know.

424
00:26:30,658 --> 00:26:36,998
And that's why I wrote my book was to try to help educate everybody else so that eventually, you know, as this continues, it keeps getting worse.

425
00:26:36,998 --> 00:26:43,597
Everyone keeps losing more and more money and having to live, you know, on less and less money on a relative purchasing power basis.

426
00:26:44,017 --> 00:26:47,758
You know, we start voting for or advocating for sound money politicians.

427
00:26:47,758 --> 00:26:55,258
I mean, you know, the two brightest things I've seen in the United States, I don't know how familiar you are with either of these guys, are guys named Thomas Massey and Warren Davidson.

428
00:26:56,138 --> 00:27:06,535
Thomas Massey awesome Yeah these are sound money people You know I mean Cynthia Loomis is too but unfortunately she retiring And so that a start

429
00:27:07,195 --> 00:27:10,595
You know, Ron Paul was a sound money person, but he aged out, sadly.

430
00:27:10,595 --> 00:27:18,035
You know, but there will be more because, you know, people will experience pain and realize that this is the cause of the pain.

431
00:27:18,175 --> 00:27:20,915
And, you know, eventually we'll get through the other side.

432
00:27:20,995 --> 00:27:23,715
I mean, one of the things that angers me the most, people call me a doomer.

433
00:27:23,835 --> 00:27:24,735
And I'm not a doomer.

434
00:27:24,855 --> 00:27:26,415
I'm very optimistic in the human condition.

435
00:27:26,415 --> 00:27:27,795
I'm very optimistic on technology.

436
00:27:27,935 --> 00:27:29,895
I mean, our lives are getting better in so many ways.

437
00:27:30,695 --> 00:27:36,515
But in an unfair, we have an unfair system where the lives of people at the top are getting better.

438
00:27:36,595 --> 00:27:38,375
The lives of people at the bottom are getting worse.

439
00:27:38,955 --> 00:27:40,655
That's just tragically unfair.

440
00:27:40,755 --> 00:27:42,255
And it's what creates a lot of dysfunction.

441
00:27:42,575 --> 00:27:47,535
And, you know, we've got to get back to the sound money system if we want to solve that problem.

442
00:27:48,735 --> 00:27:54,635
And so, you know, having blue scream at red or having red scream at blue, that's just not doing anything.

443
00:27:54,635 --> 00:27:59,315
that's all just that's unfortunate that's a hegelian i mean they want you to do that

444
00:27:59,315 --> 00:28:04,855
because it takes you it takes your eyes off of them them being the fed and the and the people

445
00:28:04,855 --> 00:28:09,095
the bankers and the system and the politicians that are laughing all the way to the bank right

446
00:28:09,095 --> 00:28:16,115
a hundred percent and it's funny you know that i i'm no macro guy i'm a macro tourist and i feel

447
00:28:16,115 --> 00:28:21,775
like over the last but over the last six months i've been going down this path where i've been

448
00:28:21,775 --> 00:28:25,795
like maybe the big print isn't coming maybe like reserve management maybe they can find a new way

449
00:28:25,795 --> 00:28:30,095
out of this and then if you imagine this is like the bell curve meme where on the left it's like

450
00:28:30,095 --> 00:28:33,695
big print on the right is big print i was somewhere in the middle and the thing that's pushed me back

451
00:28:33,695 --> 00:28:38,375
to the left is i was reading one of luke groman's pieces recently and he was talking about this 8

452
00:28:38,375 --> 00:28:43,035
trillion or 9 trillion in the next 12 months that um of debt that has to roll over and it's rolling

453
00:28:43,035 --> 00:28:47,815
over into very high rate and you look at that there's so much stuff that's unsustainable but

454
00:28:47,815 --> 00:28:50,395
You look at that and it's like, that is completely unsustainable.

455
00:28:50,495 --> 00:28:52,715
Like that cannot continue without something breaking.

456
00:28:53,375 --> 00:28:58,715
And I just think now, more than I have done in a little while, I just think a big print is inevitable.

457
00:28:58,715 --> 00:29:00,135
And I don't think we're that far away.

458
00:29:00,215 --> 00:29:02,635
Like I can't imagine it last 12 months at this rate.

459
00:29:03,375 --> 00:29:09,535
Well, you're, you know, you're singing my song, but honestly, I wrote the book and I'm afraid I might end up looking wrong.

460
00:29:09,615 --> 00:29:10,155
I don't know.

461
00:29:10,715 --> 00:29:14,455
I mean, Lynn, who I respect enormously is much smarter than I am.

462
00:29:14,535 --> 00:29:17,215
I mean, thinks that they can gradually, you know, work their way through it.

463
00:29:17,215 --> 00:29:18,275
And they may be able to.

464
00:29:18,835 --> 00:29:19,815
I just don't know.

465
00:29:19,875 --> 00:29:21,255
And I read Luke too, and he's brilliant.

466
00:29:21,415 --> 00:29:26,295
And he's got, you know, I think he leans a little bit more on my side, you know, just there's going to be nuclear level of printing.

467
00:29:26,435 --> 00:29:28,375
But we just don't know.

468
00:29:28,495 --> 00:29:29,195
We don't know.

469
00:29:29,335 --> 00:29:30,615
There's so many moving pieces.

470
00:29:30,955 --> 00:29:31,715
There's politics.

471
00:29:32,055 --> 00:29:33,615
There's, you know, a ton of other things.

472
00:29:33,615 --> 00:29:40,175
I mean, I will say this, in favor of the big print, my partner, David Foley, and I have done a lot of work on it.

473
00:29:40,475 --> 00:29:44,695
There's just a lot of leverage, a lot of bubbly shit in the economy.

474
00:29:44,695 --> 00:30:03,015
And so, you know, one of the things that leads to a monetary problem is when you have pumped up valuations that deflate because, you know, somebody made economic decisions based on those valuations and therefore they got to change their life and cut back.

475
00:30:03,015 --> 00:30:07,855
I mean, and, you know, there wasn't necessarily a big print around the dot-com bubble in 2000.

476
00:30:08,355 --> 00:30:14,835
But I mean, to tell you there, you know, they, the old, they, they started the housing bubble after that as a reaction to that.

477
00:30:14,975 --> 00:30:18,255
When that burst, there were a lot of pumped up valuations and dot-coms.

478
00:30:18,435 --> 00:30:22,295
And when that burst, the NASDAQ went down 82% and stocks went down 50%.

479
00:30:22,295 --> 00:30:24,415
That was no fun for anybody.

480
00:30:24,455 --> 00:30:26,275
And, you know, they didn't print there.

481
00:30:26,955 --> 00:30:30,335
They, they took rates to 1% and blew a housing bubble.

482
00:30:30,335 --> 00:30:59,675
But, you know, we can't blow another bubble because the next bubble would be on Mars. I mean, we're at the sovereign debt levels, but there's no more bubble left to blow. But I guess what I'm alluding to is when I look at a SpaceX or some of the, you know, the valuations of the chip stocks right now, I think they're going to say, okay, well, there's a lot of, you know, paper value in these things that at some point could deflate when, you know, if they don't come true the way people think they're going to come through.

483
00:30:59,675 --> 00:31:00,755
I'm not anti-AI.

484
00:31:00,935 --> 00:31:01,595
I love AI.

485
00:31:01,675 --> 00:31:02,335
I use it all the time.

486
00:31:02,375 --> 00:31:03,315
It's going to change the world.

487
00:31:03,875 --> 00:31:05,115
It's just like the internet.

488
00:31:05,235 --> 00:31:06,935
It's going to be enormously important.

489
00:31:07,035 --> 00:31:07,875
I totally agree.

490
00:31:08,135 --> 00:31:09,015
I was in the internet.

491
00:31:09,135 --> 00:31:09,515
I invested.

492
00:31:09,635 --> 00:31:10,335
I made money in it.

493
00:31:10,675 --> 00:31:11,415
I rode the bubble.

494
00:31:11,535 --> 00:31:14,115
I got hurt on the backside of it, although I did short some things too.

495
00:31:14,975 --> 00:31:22,855
But one of the things that was certainly true was that in 2000 and 2001, we didn't know exactly what was going to happen.

496
00:31:23,075 --> 00:31:23,635
We didn't know.

497
00:31:23,755 --> 00:31:26,575
I couldn't see that Amazon would become Amazon.

498
00:31:26,755 --> 00:31:27,755
I couldn't see Facebook.

499
00:31:27,755 --> 00:31:32,135
I couldn't see all the, they just didn't exist or they weren't fully developed.

500
00:31:32,575 --> 00:31:36,735
You know, we, we invested like crazy in a bunch of fiber, all which got used, but which

501
00:31:36,735 --> 00:31:37,875
got totally devalued.

502
00:31:37,895 --> 00:31:41,495
I mean, WorldCom and all these other companies, you know, went, went bankrupt or had to get

503
00:31:41,495 --> 00:31:44,135
restructured because they took on too much debt to build too much fiber.

504
00:31:44,875 --> 00:31:50,795
And, you know, and I, I just feel like that same, you know, that same story is being played

505
00:31:50,795 --> 00:31:52,335
out in AI, right?

506
00:31:52,455 --> 00:31:52,655
Yeah.

507
00:31:52,695 --> 00:31:55,255
That, you know, that it will change the world, no doubt.

508
00:31:55,255 --> 00:32:01,975
but you know chasing the it's it's the new shiny thing and by the way actually that's part of why

509
00:32:01,975 --> 00:32:07,415
bitcoin is kind of punk right now i mean i know people in bitcoin bitcoiners and and tech guys

510
00:32:07,415 --> 00:32:15,375
who are kind of like yeah bitcoin's old hat i'm i'm i'm all in on ai okay all right good luck with

511
00:32:15,375 --> 00:32:19,855
that what are you paying for what are the cash flows how does it how does that all work you know

512
00:32:19,855 --> 00:32:25,015
so i mean and both of those things can be true like i i'm with you ai is clearly going to change

513
00:32:25,015 --> 00:32:29,535
everything but the market can also be overvaluing them right now like that's those both can be true

514
00:32:29,535 --> 00:32:34,315
and this and yeah there's a pattern as old as time it's happened with railroads canals i mean

515
00:32:34,315 --> 00:32:40,395
you name it the automobile radio you know rca i mean all of it so the thing that i think is

516
00:32:40,395 --> 00:32:44,895
interesting though is like when you talk about the u.s economy doing quite well like i don't know

517
00:32:44,895 --> 00:32:49,715
if it is outside of ai stocks like ai stocks is the economy right now it seems and well that's

518
00:32:49,715 --> 00:32:55,915
like yeah and do they let them fail if do they let the bubble pop well the the you get into the

519
00:32:55,915 --> 00:33:00,755
strategic yeah the whole strategy we've got to win this versus china and you know you see the

520
00:33:00,755 --> 00:33:06,275
u.s investing in intel and so on and so forth i mean you're right i mean the u.s gdp would not be

521
00:33:06,275 --> 00:33:10,755
doing very well without you know what is it i think it's this year it's 600 billion and it's

522
00:33:10,755 --> 00:33:19,495
trending towards a trillion of capex on ai on data centers chips machines etc i mean oh my god i mean

523
00:33:19,495 --> 00:33:21,455
And look, I hope they know what they're doing.

524
00:33:22,255 --> 00:33:28,615
And I see really good companies taking on a lot of leverage to do it.

525
00:33:29,315 --> 00:33:32,675
And the one that I kind of respect a little bit is Apple because they're not doing it.

526
00:33:32,775 --> 00:33:34,415
I think my partner and I have talked about this.

527
00:33:34,435 --> 00:33:36,835
They might be just sitting around waiting to see how it all shakes out.

528
00:33:36,835 --> 00:33:43,715
But even Google, they're all making an enormous CapEx bet that winning this race is important.

529
00:33:43,915 --> 00:33:44,615
And they may be right.

530
00:33:45,135 --> 00:33:47,835
They may be completely right, and I may be completely wrong.

531
00:33:47,835 --> 00:33:55,835
but i look at it and i also i just get the feeling that it has that dot com you know um we don't

532
00:33:55,835 --> 00:34:00,435
really know exactly how it's all going to work and you know and the other thing that i think is a

533
00:34:00,435 --> 00:34:04,595
threat there that i don't think enough people have focused on is that this deep seek thing in china

534
00:34:04,595 --> 00:34:10,055
i mean this stuff may not be as proprietary or as hard to replicate as everybody thinks and everyone's

535
00:34:10,055 --> 00:34:16,875
like well it's a race and we got to win it well is it or can somebody in china do it cheaper and

536
00:34:16,875 --> 00:34:21,275
easier and better and faster. I mean, we kind of saw a glimpse of that with DeepSeek. So,

537
00:34:22,155 --> 00:34:29,015
you know, I just don't know. It's, look, I'm excited by it because I do know, I look at my

538
00:34:29,015 --> 00:34:33,595
life and I look at how much my productivity goes up. You know, I mean, I want to understand

539
00:34:33,595 --> 00:34:39,715
something quickly. You know, I hop on Claude and chat and I can get my arms around it. You name it.

540
00:34:39,775 --> 00:34:44,175
It's just, it's stunning. And that's going to be replicated, you know, a thousand times over

541
00:34:44,175 --> 00:34:50,995
throughout the entire economy. So that's a really good thing. But is the capital being allocated

542
00:34:50,995 --> 00:34:58,275
correctly today? It doesn't feel like it to me. I'm skeptical. I mean, I look at space. I mean,

543
00:34:58,335 --> 00:35:05,055
the satellite business, the Starlink business, that is a fabulous business. I want to own that

544
00:35:05,055 --> 00:35:10,335
business, but I don't want to own it at this price. The thing that keeps me up at night with

545
00:35:10,335 --> 00:35:14,955
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569
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570
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574
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575
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577
00:37:21,115 --> 00:37:28,775
that's bitkey.world and use the code wbd and i i think the point you you raise on ai is actually

578
00:37:28,775 --> 00:37:31,415
really interesting because like I agree.

579
00:37:31,555 --> 00:37:32,715
I think one of the things I've been watching

580
00:37:32,715 --> 00:37:34,995
is the price of compute for these AI companies

581
00:37:34,995 --> 00:37:37,375
has gone up like over 100% in the last six months

582
00:37:37,375 --> 00:37:37,675
or something.

583
00:37:37,755 --> 00:37:39,055
It's a number like that.

584
00:37:39,755 --> 00:37:42,295
And the sort of open source models

585
00:37:42,295 --> 00:37:43,435
that you can run on your own computer

586
00:37:43,435 --> 00:37:46,255
are like getting very, very good.

587
00:37:46,355 --> 00:37:47,975
They're not quite as good as the frontier models,

588
00:37:48,075 --> 00:37:49,695
but they're very good for most things.

589
00:37:50,135 --> 00:37:52,095
And I just wonder when people stop paying for it

590
00:37:52,095 --> 00:37:54,075
and start using this sort of open source ones

591
00:37:54,075 --> 00:37:54,795
you could run at home.

592
00:37:54,935 --> 00:37:56,595
Like that might be too techie,

593
00:37:56,635 --> 00:37:57,355
that might be unrealistic,

594
00:37:57,355 --> 00:37:59,415
but it's a trend that I'm definitely going to be watching.

595
00:38:00,035 --> 00:38:01,535
Well, and also, I mean, I'm paying for Claude.

596
00:38:01,615 --> 00:38:02,555
I'm paying for chat.

597
00:38:02,695 --> 00:38:04,335
I'm just at the $20 a month level.

598
00:38:04,375 --> 00:38:05,975
I'm not paying for the big stuff.

599
00:38:06,255 --> 00:38:08,315
But, you know, but as I understand it,

600
00:38:08,315 --> 00:38:09,115
I haven't used them much.

601
00:38:09,195 --> 00:38:10,655
I mean, you know, Grok and Gemini,

602
00:38:10,815 --> 00:38:13,095
I mean, I think with Grok, you've got to be paying,

603
00:38:13,315 --> 00:38:16,755
you know, you've got to be a blue checkmark on Twitter.

604
00:38:16,855 --> 00:38:17,875
That's not terribly expensive.

605
00:38:17,875 --> 00:38:20,795
And I think, isn't Gemini free, the Google product?

606
00:38:20,935 --> 00:38:21,435
I don't know.

607
00:38:21,535 --> 00:38:23,355
I think it's very low cost, I think.

608
00:38:24,215 --> 00:38:24,935
Yeah, I actually don't know.

609
00:38:24,995 --> 00:38:26,535
I think if you have a Google account,

610
00:38:26,535 --> 00:38:30,315
you get like some usage for free i think but i don't exactly know or it's like they're trying to

611
00:38:30,315 --> 00:38:35,435
trade you like yeah like chat yeah no i started using chat but i quickly hit my question limit

612
00:38:35,435 --> 00:38:41,455
and i was kind of like all right i'll pay you the 20 bucks i mean so it's going to be really

613
00:38:41,455 --> 00:38:45,775
interesting to see how it plays out though um because the one of the things i was talking to

614
00:38:45,775 --> 00:38:50,235
peter dunworth on the show recently um and he made a point that i think was actually very interesting

615
00:38:50,235 --> 00:38:54,615
in that there's a lot of people in this ai trade right now it's clearly taken the wind out the

616
00:38:54,615 --> 00:38:59,535
sales of Bitcoin a little bit over the last sort of 12 months or so. But like when that trade does

617
00:38:59,535 --> 00:39:04,375
roll over and at some point it will, like it could be in five years time, who knows, but at some point

618
00:39:04,375 --> 00:39:08,735
that trade will roll over a little bit. Like where do people put their money? Because like the bond

619
00:39:08,735 --> 00:39:12,215
market is not looking attractive, like other equities outside of AI aren't looking particularly

620
00:39:12,215 --> 00:39:16,995
attractive. Like does that start flowing back into things like gold and Bitcoin? Like these are people

621
00:39:16,995 --> 00:39:21,415
who are sort of tech savvy, you'd imagine on the whole that the AI investors like Bitcoin looks

622
00:39:21,415 --> 00:39:26,275
pretty attractive then i think that's right i think that's absolutely right that bitcoin does

623
00:39:26,275 --> 00:39:32,895
look attractive and you know bitcoin is just it's um you got to be patient with this asset

624
00:39:32,895 --> 00:39:39,075
you just you really have to be patient and uh you know i've got people that i put into it last year

625
00:39:39,075 --> 00:39:44,695
that you know probably have average costs of 100 105 110 and they're calling me and they're scared

626
00:39:44,695 --> 00:39:50,115
and i'm just like look i told you when you did it you know you got to be prepared for a 50 drawdown

627
00:39:50,115 --> 00:39:54,795
and think to yourself, if that happens, I'll buy more, not sell. And I don't think they're even

628
00:39:54,795 --> 00:40:00,195
close to the buy more. I'm trying to prevent them from selling. But those of us who've been around

629
00:40:00,195 --> 00:40:04,615
it a long time, you know, we just, we understand it. And it's just kind of like, okay, you know,

630
00:40:04,635 --> 00:40:08,875
it is what it is. I mean, this is, this is the nature. I mean, I, you know, go back and study

631
00:40:08,875 --> 00:40:13,315
the growth of Amazon. I mean, Howard Marks, you know, made a fortune. Um, I think it was Howard

632
00:40:13,315 --> 00:40:17,695
Marks. No, it was somebody else. Um, I'm getting my name, the names wrong, but there was a fellow

633
00:40:17,695 --> 00:40:19,735
who was an investor in Amazon from the beginning.

634
00:40:19,735 --> 00:40:22,975
And, you know, he suffered big drawdowns

635
00:40:22,975 --> 00:40:25,035
and he just kept, you know, he'd buy the dip

636
00:40:25,035 --> 00:40:27,415
and did extremely well with it.

637
00:40:27,415 --> 00:40:37,612
So yeah it Bitcoin just looks more and more attractive And the thing that this kind of plays into and one of the questions i had for you about the fed meeting i want you to try and clear

638
00:40:37,612 --> 00:40:42,952
this up for me larry is um the idea of getting rid of forward guidance because that has been

639
00:40:42,952 --> 00:40:49,112
a thing for the last i don't know how long um like but when power was talking about higher for

640
00:40:49,112 --> 00:40:52,313
longer and things like that like they have given foreign guidance and water wants to get rid of

641
00:40:52,313 --> 00:40:59,172
that entirely. Why do you think that is? Because is it the idea that they want to keep some

642
00:40:59,172 --> 00:41:03,112
optionality, keep some flexibility? They know that inflation's high. They know that the treasury

643
00:41:03,112 --> 00:41:08,212
market's not in great shape. And instead of telling the market what they're going to do,

644
00:41:08,252 --> 00:41:11,592
they want to kind of keep that flexibility. Or is it that they think the market can't

645
00:41:12,172 --> 00:41:14,972
sort of is too fragile to have the forward guidance at this point?

646
00:41:15,672 --> 00:41:19,972
Well, that's a great question. I, you know, I'm not quite sure. I think it, I think it just,

647
00:41:19,972 --> 00:41:25,692
in my mind, it just kind of falls into the let's change what's continually changed the rules of

648
00:41:25,692 --> 00:41:30,732
the game to keep the other side up. We're the other side, right? We're trying to figure out

649
00:41:30,732 --> 00:41:36,313
what the hell they're going to do. And so, you know, um, they'd gotten to the point where they

650
00:41:36,313 --> 00:41:43,172
had dot plots and projections and Nikki leaks and all kinds of stuff. And I can see where they kind

651
00:41:43,172 --> 00:41:46,652
of said, you know what, we're, we're hamstrung by this. We've got our, you know, got our arms

652
00:41:46,652 --> 00:41:50,532
tied behind our back because we're giving, telling people shit, we got to warn them of

653
00:41:50,532 --> 00:41:51,692
shit and all that kind of stuff.

654
00:41:51,712 --> 00:41:54,512
And they, they thought they were being responsible in doing that.

655
00:41:55,273 --> 00:42:00,293
Um, and now they, they, they, they, they have decided they want to have optionality without

656
00:42:00,293 --> 00:42:05,212
any restraints and, you know, let it, let it just, you know, let's let it rip.

657
00:42:05,313 --> 00:42:07,932
And to me, this takes us back to Greenspan.

658
00:42:08,052 --> 00:42:11,092
I mean, um, Greenspan did the same thing.

659
00:42:11,112 --> 00:42:13,212
I mean, he talked in total gobbledygook.

660
00:42:13,212 --> 00:42:17,273
I mean, he gave forward guidance, but you couldn't figure out what it was.

661
00:42:18,192 --> 00:42:19,793
And I mean, he even joked about it.

662
00:42:19,912 --> 00:42:23,852
You know, if you think you understood me, then obviously I didn't do my job very well.

663
00:42:24,212 --> 00:42:24,952
He said that once.

664
00:42:25,852 --> 00:42:31,212
And so, you know, the job, I mean, really the job is the job of a con man.

665
00:42:31,392 --> 00:42:35,732
I mean, they're supposed to sit there and convince us they've got inflation under control.

666
00:42:36,152 --> 00:42:37,773
And yet they don't.

667
00:42:37,992 --> 00:42:40,012
And they're doing things to inflate.

668
00:42:40,332 --> 00:42:41,592
That's really the whole job.

669
00:42:41,592 --> 00:42:45,332
I mean, in a nutshell, that describes what a Fed chairman has to do.

670
00:42:45,732 --> 00:42:51,192
He has to gaslight the public into thinking that the money is sound and the Fed has got 12 people.

671
00:42:51,293 --> 00:42:58,072
I mean, you know, I find it hysterical, Danny, that people say, well, you know, wars can't get the votes to cut rates.

672
00:42:58,692 --> 00:42:59,852
I mean, give me a break.

673
00:43:00,092 --> 00:43:03,472
The way this works is that the chairman bullies everybody else.

674
00:43:03,472 --> 00:43:10,912
I mean, read, you know, read the books about, you know, what Bernanke did to Thomas Honig or what, you know, Greenspan, I mean, you know, or Yellen.

675
00:43:10,912 --> 00:43:18,172
I mean, the chairman sets the tone and the dissents, even the dissents are somewhat planned.

676
00:43:18,332 --> 00:43:27,712
I mean, it's all kabuki theater to make it look like, oh, we've got these 12 wise people trying to figure out exactly what the monetary policy should be.

677
00:43:27,832 --> 00:43:31,852
And they're so thoughtful and deliberate and they're going to get it absolutely right.

678
00:43:32,032 --> 00:43:35,692
And since 1913, they've done nothing but fuck it up.

679
00:43:35,692 --> 00:43:41,572
I mean, and it's kind of like, you know, Jesus Christ, guys, just stop gaslight.

680
00:43:41,672 --> 00:43:50,712
Stop with the fucking bullshit and admit that you're the department of inflation and your job is to inflate, you know, at a rate that we can all tolerate.

681
00:43:51,012 --> 00:43:56,492
And, you know, basically keep this fucking game going in favor of the bankers and the politicians.

682
00:43:56,672 --> 00:43:57,652
Why don't you just say that?

683
00:43:58,372 --> 00:44:00,172
I mean, obviously I'm being facetious.

684
00:44:00,273 --> 00:44:01,032
They can't say that.

685
00:44:01,032 --> 00:44:04,793
But that, you know, that's to me, that's really what's going on here.

686
00:44:04,793 --> 00:44:06,492
It's just they're just playing a game.

687
00:44:06,492 --> 00:44:10,192
And and I'm just so annoyed by it and so fed up with it.

688
00:44:10,232 --> 00:44:18,313
And the sooner we can get rid of it and we get the entire world to realize that it's a it's a sick joke on all of us, the better off we'll be.

689
00:44:18,412 --> 00:44:20,313
I mean, that's that was the whole Ron Paul movement.

690
00:44:20,372 --> 00:44:21,432
Just end the Fed.

691
00:44:21,492 --> 00:44:22,852
There should be no Federal Reserve.

692
00:44:23,293 --> 00:44:26,472
We should have a sound money unit that we all transact in.

693
00:44:26,692 --> 00:44:29,332
And the price of that money should be set by the free market.

694
00:44:29,332 --> 00:44:31,232
And that's called the interest rate, period.

695
00:44:31,432 --> 00:44:31,992
Nothing else.

696
00:44:32,332 --> 00:44:33,332
There should be no bailouts.

697
00:44:33,332 --> 00:44:34,252
If you fail, you fail.

698
00:44:34,793 --> 00:44:38,892
you know and you want to take on a bunch of leverage and swing for the moon great but if you

699
00:44:38,892 --> 00:44:43,332
blow it you know you lose everything and you're out of business you're not you know bailed out like

700
00:44:43,332 --> 00:44:48,172
Lloyd Blankfine was and you know when he was one on Goldman Sachs in 08 you know and now he

701
00:44:48,172 --> 00:44:52,752
you know lives in a mansion on Long Island and you know and holds forth on Twitter about all

702
00:44:52,752 --> 00:44:57,432
kinds of policy issues just makes me sick it's like you know the guy shouldn't be bankrupt right

703
00:44:57,432 --> 00:45:04,072
a hundred percent I couldn't agree with that more it's um like what it says to me the lack

704
00:45:04,072 --> 00:45:06,172
for guidance is they just don't know what they're going to do.

705
00:45:07,012 --> 00:45:09,392
At least with Powell, like he was saying,

706
00:45:10,072 --> 00:45:12,773
hire for longer and the market could kind of digest that.

707
00:45:12,872 --> 00:45:14,712
And I know it kind of sucks that the market trades

708
00:45:14,712 --> 00:45:15,852
on the words of this one person,

709
00:45:15,992 --> 00:45:18,912
but it just screams to me that they don't know.

710
00:45:19,012 --> 00:45:19,932
They don't know what they're going to do.

711
00:45:19,992 --> 00:45:20,452
They're stuck.

712
00:45:20,632 --> 00:45:22,512
I do think the Fed looks trapped here.

713
00:45:23,212 --> 00:45:25,212
One of the things that I've been reading though,

714
00:45:25,752 --> 00:45:27,832
Jeff Ross's Substack is brilliant.

715
00:45:27,992 --> 00:45:28,872
I've been reading it a lot.

716
00:45:28,872 --> 00:45:33,952
And he was talking about the Fed don't actually set the rate.

717
00:45:33,952 --> 00:45:37,912
the market sets the rate and it's the like the two-year bond and the overnight funding rate

718
00:45:37,912 --> 00:45:43,572
and i was looking at that recently and that that now is signaling that rates need to go higher or

719
00:45:43,572 --> 00:45:48,332
will go higher do you do you think that is probably likely in the next meeting i know i know earlier

720
00:45:48,332 --> 00:45:51,972
you said do you think they're going to cut at some point jeff gunlock thinks rates need to go higher

721
00:45:51,972 --> 00:45:56,992
same thing and and we've all we all know that the two-year you know really is the fed funds rate

722
00:45:56,992 --> 00:46:02,132
kind of in disguise um and and groman has a great chart where he just shows the two-year has been

723
00:46:02,132 --> 00:46:08,952
going higher, you know, open above the rate by a significant amount. Yeah, I think that would be a

724
00:46:08,952 --> 00:46:12,692
great way to run it. But as a practical matter, I don't think that's how they are going to run it

725
00:46:12,692 --> 00:46:18,172
because I think they're political. And, you know, I think Vicente is in on all of this.

726
00:46:18,952 --> 00:46:26,712
And as much as said, they expect to grow their way out of it. And how do you get growth? You drop

727
00:46:26,712 --> 00:46:30,592
interest rates so that you get more projects being taken on. I mean, you know, one of the

728
00:46:30,592 --> 00:46:34,172
problems right now is all these people have frozen in their houses. There are people who have 3%

729
00:46:34,172 --> 00:46:38,972
mortgages that can't move because the new bigger house that they want would have a 7% mortgage.

730
00:46:39,092 --> 00:46:43,712
They can't afford it. And so, you know, if they can get rates down substantially,

731
00:46:43,712 --> 00:46:49,293
you know, the housing market will pick up, you know, I mean, I mean, look, we,

732
00:46:49,652 --> 00:46:54,732
what they're going to do in my opinion is this decade, and I've said this for a long time,

733
00:46:54,813 --> 00:46:59,773
this is going to be a decade of inflation. It started in 2020. We're six years into it.

734
00:46:59,773 --> 00:47:01,872
we're not anywhere close to the end of it.

735
00:47:02,032 --> 00:47:04,273
Before this is all over, we'll have double-digit inflation.

736
00:47:04,372 --> 00:47:05,412
We almost had it last time.

737
00:47:05,432 --> 00:47:06,052
We got to nine.

738
00:47:06,532 --> 00:47:08,313
We're going to get double-digit inflation.

739
00:47:08,592 --> 00:47:11,732
And the good news is, you know, the economy will probably be cooking

740
00:47:11,732 --> 00:47:13,432
and unemployment will be relatively low.

741
00:47:13,552 --> 00:47:15,273
Somebody's got to build those data centers.

742
00:47:15,912 --> 00:47:17,472
Somebody's got to do all this work.

743
00:47:17,932 --> 00:47:21,612
But the bad news is that, you know, with, you know,

744
00:47:21,612 --> 00:47:24,032
and somebody's got to do those housing, you know, all of it.

745
00:47:24,092 --> 00:47:27,732
When we get interest rates low, economic activity will pick up.

746
00:47:27,872 --> 00:47:29,612
So we won't have an unemployment problem.

747
00:47:29,773 --> 00:47:35,732
But what we will have is we'll have a red-hot inflation problem because the money supply growth will start to pick up again.

748
00:47:36,293 --> 00:47:42,632
I mean, it's already running at 4% or 5%, and it'll run significantly hotter, and then that'll filter through to the economy.

749
00:47:43,192 --> 00:47:46,732
And, you know, heaven forbid that the stock or the bond market breaks.

750
00:47:46,932 --> 00:47:53,192
I mean, if either of those things break, that's what it will take to get the big print, right?

751
00:47:53,192 --> 00:48:06,273
The big print, if we just run it hot, we'll end up looking like, you know, Turkey or Argentina or, you know, we'll be kind of an emerging market economy with good nominal growth and high inflation.

752
00:48:06,492 --> 00:48:17,992
I can see that's actually a scenario that I think is reasonably likely that, you know, that does not require a big print, but that leads to, you know, $10,000 gold and $400,000 Bitcoin.

753
00:48:17,992 --> 00:48:25,632
I mean, I, you know, and, and, you know, $10 gas or $15 gas and $25, you know, ground beef.

754
00:48:25,672 --> 00:48:27,273
I mean, I'm talking five years out or something.

755
00:48:27,372 --> 00:48:32,392
I mean, I, I guess one of the possible paths and, you know, I, I would guess that would

756
00:48:32,392 --> 00:48:34,512
kind of be more of Lynn's, you know, medium print.

757
00:48:34,832 --> 00:48:39,752
Um, you know, if something breaks, if, if this, if we get a leveraged unwind, you know,

758
00:48:39,752 --> 00:48:45,512
whether it be AI or, you know, private credit or who knows what.

759
00:48:45,512 --> 00:48:52,273
But if we get a leveraged unwind somewhere, the stock market breaks, the bond market breaks, well, then we're going to get a big print.

760
00:48:52,512 --> 00:48:55,692
And then it's going to get really hairy really fast.

761
00:48:56,092 --> 00:48:59,872
And, you know, 12% inflation is going to look like a good thing.

762
00:48:59,932 --> 00:49:01,152
I mean, it's going to be 20%.

763
00:49:01,152 --> 00:49:07,392
And I think in the next one, I mean, that's the one that could lead to, you know, the reset, the monetary reform.

764
00:49:07,392 --> 00:49:16,412
I mean, if you use the fourth turning model, I'm modeling, we fix all this in the 2030 to 2033 timeframe.

765
00:49:17,352 --> 00:49:22,212
And that's just a guess, but it's based on fourth turnings lasting a certain amount of time.

766
00:49:22,252 --> 00:49:24,052
And this one started in 08, right?

767
00:49:24,192 --> 00:49:26,372
So it lasts 20 to 30 years.

768
00:49:26,432 --> 00:49:28,172
I mean, let's say it lasts 30 years.

769
00:49:28,192 --> 00:49:29,293
That would take 2038.

770
00:49:29,452 --> 00:49:30,872
Maybe it will last that long.

771
00:49:31,012 --> 00:49:31,532
I don't know.

772
00:49:32,212 --> 00:49:34,452
But it appears like the pace is picking up.

773
00:49:34,552 --> 00:49:36,392
And certainly the size is picking up.

774
00:49:36,392 --> 00:49:38,252
I mean, Bernanke printed three trillion.

775
00:49:38,412 --> 00:49:40,152
It took him four years to do it.

776
00:49:40,392 --> 00:49:42,412
Powell printed five trillion in 18 months.

777
00:49:43,273 --> 00:49:48,532
So, you know, the next guy could print eight or nine trillion in six months or something.

778
00:49:48,652 --> 00:49:52,552
I mean, I'm just, you know, I'm spitballing here, but you know, you never know.

779
00:49:53,372 --> 00:49:54,552
The scale of it is insane.

780
00:49:54,652 --> 00:49:58,212
I honestly, without Bitcoin, I don't know how you'd look at this with any kind of hope.

781
00:49:58,232 --> 00:50:01,112
Cause like you were talking about people moving house at this point.

782
00:50:01,132 --> 00:50:04,852
Like I'm looking at buying a house at some point and like Bitcoin gives you that low

783
00:50:04,852 --> 00:50:09,932
time preference where I'm like, Bitcoin's at 60K right now. If I wait a year or two, I'll probably

784
00:50:09,932 --> 00:50:14,392
get a house at half price. I can wait for rates to come down. I mean, it can also put you in a

785
00:50:14,392 --> 00:50:18,212
kind of stasis where you don't do anything because you know you have the best performing asset. But

786
00:50:18,212 --> 00:50:22,432
it does give you time, which I just don't know what you'd be doing if you didn't have Bitcoin.

787
00:50:22,432 --> 00:50:26,652
Well, that's the thing. I mean, you want to own assets where time is on your side. And

788
00:50:26,652 --> 00:50:33,892
impatience kills so many people. I mean, probably one of the biggest mistakes I see everybody,

789
00:50:33,892 --> 00:50:36,252
and particularly people in the younger categories make,

790
00:50:36,313 --> 00:50:38,712
and I've learned this lesson so many times the hard way,

791
00:50:38,852 --> 00:50:42,632
is you want to get there faster so you use leverage.

792
00:50:42,972 --> 00:50:43,512
Oh, boy.

793
00:50:44,592 --> 00:50:49,512
I mean, and that's, by the way, that's kind of what some of the treasury companies are doing.

794
00:50:49,712 --> 00:50:50,252
Do you know what I mean?

795
00:50:50,352 --> 00:50:52,992
And don't get me wrong, I'm a micro strategy holder,

796
00:50:53,132 --> 00:50:55,293
and I believe what Saylor's doing is fine.

797
00:50:55,952 --> 00:51:02,832
But I'm just, you know, leverage in an asset like Bitcoin can be a life-altering experience

798
00:51:02,832 --> 00:51:03,872
in a negative way.

799
00:51:03,892 --> 00:51:07,732
and there's enough upside here

800
00:51:07,732 --> 00:51:09,293
that you don't need to use leverage.

801
00:51:09,432 --> 00:51:10,372
I mean, if you want to play around

802
00:51:10,372 --> 00:51:11,912
with 5% or 10% of your money

803
00:51:11,912 --> 00:51:12,912
in a levered way, fine.

804
00:51:13,592 --> 00:51:15,392
If you blow up, you blow up.

805
00:51:15,652 --> 00:51:18,932
But this is asymmetric enough

806
00:51:18,932 --> 00:51:20,172
that you don't need to use leverage.

807
00:51:20,773 --> 00:51:21,172
100%.

808
00:51:21,172 --> 00:51:22,552
Can we talk a little bit

809
00:51:22,552 --> 00:51:23,232
about MicroStrategy?

810
00:51:23,472 --> 00:51:25,412
Because Saylor's been getting some heat

811
00:51:25,412 --> 00:51:26,912
over the last few days about Stretch,

812
00:51:27,032 --> 00:51:28,793
and I saw today the price of Stretch

813
00:51:28,793 --> 00:51:29,932
went down to $83,

814
00:51:30,392 --> 00:51:31,932
which is pretty insane.

815
00:51:31,932 --> 00:51:38,172
um it really is i was i was actually buying a little this morning um i mean it makes sense if

816
00:51:38,172 --> 00:51:41,892
you think it's going back to par this is a great time to buy it it will go back to par i mean it

817
00:51:41,892 --> 00:51:46,652
definitely will i mean i um jesse mayor you probably saw it had a good tweet on it where

818
00:51:46,652 --> 00:51:50,813
he talked about it it felt like a leveraged cascade you know like somebody was getting

819
00:51:50,813 --> 00:51:55,692
liquidated i mean somebody probably borrowed cheap and and gone in there and to get the 11

820
00:51:55,692 --> 00:52:00,412
percent and levered themselves up and you know guess what they just got a gut check a big gut

821
00:52:00,412 --> 00:52:06,552
check. Um, yeah, I think it'll come back to par over time. Um, I think, you know, the dividend is,

822
00:52:06,612 --> 00:52:11,972
is very well covered. Um, I think all the strategy hate, I mean, it's, it's sad to see. I mean,

823
00:52:11,972 --> 00:52:17,072
there are a lot of Bitcoiners that I know, like respect, et cetera, who've gone negative on,

824
00:52:17,072 --> 00:52:21,972
on sailor. And I, I think they're mistaken. Um, when people call them deceptive, I just don't

825
00:52:21,972 --> 00:52:27,392
think that's true. Um, you know, I, I think he's been aggressive. Um, but you know, he wants to

826
00:52:27,392 --> 00:52:33,652
win. And, you know, I think he's evolved the strategy, no pun intended, but he has evolved.

827
00:52:33,972 --> 00:52:39,632
And, uh, you know, um, that's okay. And in my way of seeing it, conditions change, it's a war,

828
00:52:39,773 --> 00:52:44,412
you know, you change. I mean, he's, he's fighting the fiat lords and he's, he's, he's really running

829
00:52:44,412 --> 00:52:49,452
a speculative attack on the dollar. He won't say that, but he is. Um, and so, you know, you do what

830
00:52:49,452 --> 00:52:55,293
you got to do. Um, you know, my view is it's, it's a thousand dollar stock in a few years.

831
00:52:55,293 --> 00:53:03,552
you know the the only way it doesn't work i mean if if bitcoin adoption stops and bitcoin arr you

832
00:53:03,552 --> 00:53:09,612
know stops going up at a very nice rate well then strategies leverage bitcoin it's going to fail

833
00:53:09,612 --> 00:53:15,092
before bitcoin fails but i don't think bitcoin's going to fail and i do i strongly believe that the

834
00:53:15,092 --> 00:53:21,412
arr is going to continue it to be you know north of 20 you know i mean 30 or 40 very possibly

835
00:53:21,412 --> 00:53:28,313
and so to pay you know to pay a boomer 11% dividends on a preferred and strip out the

836
00:53:28,313 --> 00:53:32,732
volatility some of the volatility not all of it because you can go down 20% you don't have if

837
00:53:32,732 --> 00:53:38,392
you're not patient but uh strip out some of the volatility um you know that's that strikes me as

838
00:53:38,392 --> 00:53:43,293
not unintelligent that strikes me as intelligent now he's got to be careful not to get too far out

839
00:53:43,293 --> 00:53:49,752
over his skis I mean I think you know how far he pushes stretch is is a question mark and uh

840
00:53:49,752 --> 00:53:54,252
because as we do know, there are these drawdowns.

841
00:53:54,532 --> 00:53:58,773
But my partner and I, David Pollard, we've battle-tested this thing.

842
00:53:58,852 --> 00:54:00,012
We've done all kinds of scenarios.

843
00:54:00,152 --> 00:54:01,372
I mean, you can't break this company.

844
00:54:02,012 --> 00:54:03,252
I mean, it's going to be totally fine.

845
00:54:03,288 --> 00:54:27,428
And all this sailor hate to me, it's just a bear market phenomenon. And if I look at what he's done for the space overall, you know, this drawdown wouldn't have been just 50%. It would have been 70% if we hadn't had, you know, the strategy purchases that have taken place. And, you know, his activities have encouraged others. And I mean, it's, look, it's becoming institutionalized.

846
00:54:27,428 --> 00:54:35,108
And for those who say, well, I'm a purist, I mean, I think you should just hodl and encourage others to hodl and it's money and all this other stuff is noise.

847
00:54:35,888 --> 00:54:37,028
That's just not realistic.

848
00:54:37,248 --> 00:54:51,948
I mean, the fact of the matter is we have an existing fiat financial system and we need to, you know, the transition from a fiat financial system to a purely Bitcoin system, which I believe is taking place, but will probably, you know, take more than my remaining lifetime to complete.

849
00:54:52,428 --> 00:54:56,308
But, you know, I think in 10, 20, 30, 40 years, it will complete.

850
00:54:57,428 --> 00:55:06,168
You know, it's, you've got to go through, there have to be fiat related products that are Bitcoin backed, like strategy.

851
00:55:06,488 --> 00:55:08,328
And to me, that's okay.

852
00:55:08,468 --> 00:55:09,448
That's a positive.

853
00:55:09,788 --> 00:55:12,968
So I'm not in the hate sailor camp.

854
00:55:12,968 --> 00:55:17,768
I respect sailor and I think what he's doing is smart and correct.

855
00:55:18,108 --> 00:55:20,708
And like the odds of him failing at it are quite low.

856
00:55:20,888 --> 00:55:25,188
So I'm a big strategy shareholder and comfortable being so.

857
00:55:25,188 --> 00:55:29,948
yeah i mean i i agree with the vast majority of that i do think for most people you're better just

858
00:55:29,948 --> 00:55:34,268
owning the asset rather than owning you know exposing to the asset by something else i don't

859
00:55:34,268 --> 00:55:39,848
disagree i mean my actual cold storage bitcoin holdings are much much larger than my micro

860
00:55:39,848 --> 00:55:45,088
strategy holdings but my micro strategy holdings are not trivial i mean it's it's a meaningful

861
00:55:45,088 --> 00:55:51,108
it's a meaningful number um and because i think it can and will outperform bitcoin and and i and

862
00:55:51,108 --> 00:55:55,468
by the way, I may trim it at some point in time. I mean, I think in an upcycle, you know, it may go

863
00:55:55,468 --> 00:56:00,688
back to an MNAP premium of, you know, I don't know, one, three, one, five, one, seven, one, eight.

864
00:56:01,268 --> 00:56:05,708
And, you know, there may come a time where, okay, Bitcoin's up, you know, we're at the top of the

865
00:56:05,708 --> 00:56:11,168
power law, you know, micro strategies way up, you know, we're trading at a big MNAP and I might sell

866
00:56:11,168 --> 00:56:17,548
it because, you know, I know how these things work. I mean, it is cyclical. And, you know, I think

867
00:56:17,548 --> 00:56:20,488
one of the things that I think that people were afraid right now, I think one of the things they

868
00:56:20,488 --> 00:56:26,248
should do is they should go buy fred krueger's book on bitcoin 1 million and read it and understand

869
00:56:26,248 --> 00:56:33,228
um how and and and look get on get on x and look at giovanni's work on the power law and just

870
00:56:33,228 --> 00:56:39,448
understand how powerful this power law thing is um you know it's it's it's perfectly marked all

871
00:56:39,448 --> 00:56:44,268
these bottoms and if we're not at one right now we're very very close and i you know could we

872
00:56:44,268 --> 00:56:45,868
down into the 50s, maybe,

873
00:56:46,588 --> 00:56:48,228
but we won't stay there a lot.

874
00:56:48,928 --> 00:56:51,008
And my sense is that

875
00:56:51,008 --> 00:56:53,588
once this bottom is in place,

876
00:56:54,208 --> 00:56:55,448
the next leg up takes us

877
00:56:55,448 --> 00:56:56,868
to kind of 180 minimum

878
00:56:56,868 --> 00:56:58,688
and maybe up into the twos.

879
00:56:58,908 --> 00:56:59,548
Hard to say,

880
00:57:00,488 --> 00:57:02,908
but that's what the power law predicts.

881
00:57:03,848 --> 00:57:04,288
Yeah.

882
00:57:04,688 --> 00:57:05,408
I mean, with the,

883
00:57:06,128 --> 00:57:07,268
how strategy you perform

884
00:57:07,268 --> 00:57:08,268
in the next bull market,

885
00:57:08,368 --> 00:57:11,008
I could believe it goes to 1.5, 1.6,

886
00:57:11,108 --> 00:57:12,168
something around there.

887
00:57:12,828 --> 00:57:13,688
What I don't understand

888
00:57:13,688 --> 00:57:17,808
is people that think it's going to go back to like a 3x mnav like there's no way that those

889
00:57:17,808 --> 00:57:21,948
shares don't get diluted before it gets there like that i don't see that ever happening totally

890
00:57:21,948 --> 00:57:26,988
agree totally agree i mean those early days were kind of unique and and we won't ever see that

891
00:57:26,988 --> 00:57:32,608
again but but you know it it should trade at an mnav premium to the degree that you can access

892
00:57:32,608 --> 00:57:39,808
credit markets and and and source capital you know at well below the bitcoin arr i mean you know i

893
00:57:39,808 --> 00:57:42,848
I mean, Hugo Stennis did this in Weimar, Germany, right?

894
00:57:42,888 --> 00:57:46,468
I mean, he borrowed money cheap, and he used it to buy real stuff.

895
00:57:46,588 --> 00:57:51,668
And then when the currency hyperinflated, he paid back the debt with paper, with hyperinflated currency.

896
00:57:51,748 --> 00:57:53,428
And that's all Saylor's doing.

897
00:57:53,428 --> 00:57:59,728
He's just doing a financial arbitrage where he can borrow money in the stretch case, 11 and a half.

898
00:57:59,828 --> 00:58:01,008
I mean, it'll probably be 12 soon.

899
00:58:01,568 --> 00:58:06,408
But he borrowed money relatively cheap, put it in an asset that's growing at 30.

900
00:58:07,088 --> 00:58:09,568
It was at 40, now probably trending towards 30.

901
00:58:09,808 --> 00:58:15,648
and the shareholders capture the difference. And so, you know, to me, that works. So it's not,

902
00:58:16,088 --> 00:58:21,288
there's nothing more complicated about it than that. And, you know, look, if Bitcoin fails,

903
00:58:21,368 --> 00:58:26,768
he's screwed. You know, if Bitcoin ARR goes down, he's screwed. I mean, how does that happen? I was

904
00:58:26,768 --> 00:58:29,788
on another pod this morning. I said, there are only two ways that happens. One, if something

905
00:58:29,788 --> 00:58:35,428
technically occurs that just proves that, you know, 16 years and 900 and some odd thousand blocks,

906
00:58:35,428 --> 00:58:41,308
you know it's not going to work or adoption really slows and people stop buying it and there's just no

907
00:58:41,308 --> 00:58:47,668
no growth in the underlying adoption of the asset and i just don't see that i you know i see i see

908
00:58:47,668 --> 00:58:53,468
more and more groups entities etfs etc i mean it's just it's getting more and more broadly

909
00:58:53,468 --> 00:58:59,248
distributed and and and it'll continue to do so so yeah i don't see that happening either i i do

910
00:58:59,248 --> 00:59:04,548
wonder whether this sort of 20 drawdown i know i know he's had drawdowns from the hundred dollar

911
00:59:04,548 --> 00:59:06,808
sort of part. Yeah, there were a couple of others.

912
00:59:07,268 --> 00:59:08,788
If I look back, let me just look

913
00:59:08,788 --> 00:59:09,928
at my screen here, I'll tell you.

914
00:59:10,648 --> 00:59:12,148
This is definitely the deepest one.

915
00:59:12,148 --> 00:59:14,228
Back in November, it got

916
00:59:14,228 --> 00:59:16,208
down to like 90. Yeah, November

917
00:59:16,208 --> 00:59:18,288
got to 90. Yep, and then he had

918
00:59:18,288 --> 00:59:19,288
another one in

919
00:59:19,288 --> 00:59:22,168
February, it got to 93.

920
00:59:23,188 --> 00:59:24,468
Yeah, no, this is the worst one.

921
00:59:24,828 --> 00:59:25,988
This is the worst one by far.

922
00:59:26,768 --> 00:59:28,248
So, you know, like, the

923
00:59:28,248 --> 00:59:30,248
real institutional investors far better

924
00:59:30,248 --> 00:59:32,128
than I probably ever will. Do you think

925
00:59:32,128 --> 00:59:47,436
this will put people off like the big money looking at this off Oh yeah Oh yeah Some of it put some of them off for sure i mean it uh you know it yeah i mean it uh i mean heck it it you know it it put it put me

926
00:59:47,436 --> 00:59:55,115
off to an extent i mean i you know i own some um you know and i i i didn't sell it but then you know

927
00:59:55,115 --> 00:59:59,535
it went down to this i was like no this is ridiculous i mean this is you know he's got this

928
00:59:59,535 --> 01:00:04,615
covered. And, and I mean, you mean to tell me you're going to pay me 11% plus I get to buy this

929
01:00:04,615 --> 01:00:09,376
in the eighties, you know, and it could return to par so I could pick up another 15% there.

930
01:00:09,555 --> 01:00:16,756
That's just too good a deal. So, um, but I, you know, I, I kind of, when I bought it originally,

931
01:00:16,756 --> 01:00:23,075
I always kind of knew that it was the sort of thing that if, if people got freaked out about

932
01:00:23,075 --> 01:00:28,916
Bitcoin, it could do this. I mean, this is a, you know, it was kind of a correlation to one event

933
01:00:28,916 --> 01:00:33,916
with Bitcoin. And it's a little bit of a sentiment indicator on Bitcoin. I don't think people fully

934
01:00:33,916 --> 01:00:39,175
understand it. And, you know, let's face it, Danny, I mean, the sentiment right now in our space,

935
01:00:39,235 --> 01:00:45,476
it's really bleak. I mean, it's really, really bleak, which historically as a professional

936
01:00:45,476 --> 01:00:50,455
investor, having been doing this for 40 years, that's a very, very good time to be buying. But

937
01:00:50,455 --> 01:00:55,916
it also doesn't feel comfortable. You know, I mean, I know that, you know, buying this morning,

938
01:00:55,916 --> 01:00:56,476
is kind of like,

939
01:00:56,575 --> 01:00:59,675
well, shit, maybe it goes to 70, right?

940
01:01:00,075 --> 01:01:00,776
I don't know.

941
01:01:01,356 --> 01:01:03,535
But no, I got to nibble at this, right?

942
01:01:04,296 --> 01:01:06,476
I mean, in the 10 years I've been in Bitcoin,

943
01:01:06,595 --> 01:01:08,296
I think the sentiment is the worst it's ever been.

944
01:01:08,615 --> 01:01:10,336
And I've said this before on the podcast,

945
01:01:10,436 --> 01:01:13,035
but I think it's because there's nothing to point at.

946
01:01:13,615 --> 01:01:15,416
Not necessarily as tangible, at least.

947
01:01:15,416 --> 01:01:17,615
Like when they crashed in 2024,

948
01:01:17,796 --> 01:01:19,575
whenever it was, 23 with FTX,

949
01:01:20,135 --> 01:01:22,095
like there was huge fraud in that space

950
01:01:22,095 --> 01:01:23,515
and you could point at why it was crashing

951
01:01:23,515 --> 01:01:26,015
and be like, it's Sam Bachman-Fried's fault,

952
01:01:26,296 --> 01:01:27,776
it's 3-Eros Capital, it's Luna,

953
01:01:28,416 --> 01:01:31,095
and it's not that anything's wrong with Bitcoin.

954
01:01:31,276 --> 01:01:32,416
I think now people are questioning

955
01:01:32,416 --> 01:01:34,635
whether Bitcoin is going to do what we think it's going to do.

956
01:01:34,776 --> 01:01:35,716
I'm not questioning that,

957
01:01:35,776 --> 01:01:37,356
but I think maybe the broader market is.

958
01:01:37,716 --> 01:01:40,055
And I think that's one of the reasons why sentiment's so bad.

959
01:01:41,796 --> 01:01:43,976
But on the stretch thing, I've got one more question on this.

960
01:01:44,316 --> 01:01:46,376
I assume you can short stretch, right?

961
01:01:47,535 --> 01:01:48,075
I don't know.

962
01:01:48,235 --> 01:01:49,535
Yeah, I would imagine you could.

963
01:01:49,816 --> 01:01:51,455
Yeah, I mean, you've got to pay the dip band, right?

964
01:01:51,455 --> 01:01:57,455
yeah so like if you obviously like funding rates might be high it might not make a lot of sense to

965
01:01:57,455 --> 01:02:02,155
short it all the time at 100 but like are these drawbacks always going to happen because people

966
01:02:02,155 --> 01:02:05,595
can short at 100 they know it's not going to go above that all they have to do is pay the funding

967
01:02:05,595 --> 01:02:12,395
on on the contract maybe maybe i mean yeah it's you know it's you gotta you gotta pay the dividend

968
01:02:12,395 --> 01:02:18,595
though if you're short the stock so you know you've got a negative 11 so you know um it's very

969
01:02:18,595 --> 01:02:24,356
risky. Yeah, it's risky. I mean, but, but obviously if you, if you felt like you knew when, when,

970
01:02:24,476 --> 01:02:27,416
you know, we're going to have one of these cascading events where everyone kind of freaked

971
01:02:27,416 --> 01:02:33,575
out on Bitcoin, you know, or on strategy, well, fine. I mean, it's, you know, it's, it's interesting.

972
01:02:33,575 --> 01:02:41,856
I mean, um, the, the big money has gotten into this space and, um, you know, uh, my sense is

973
01:02:41,856 --> 01:02:46,075
that they're testing sailor, you know, at, at, at a lot of different levels. They're testing him

974
01:02:46,075 --> 01:02:51,836
on stretch they're testing on mstr um you know i think he's gonna pass the test with flying colors

975
01:02:51,836 --> 01:02:55,456
um and i you know i think there are gonna be some people who are gonna be on the wrong side

976
01:02:55,456 --> 01:02:59,735
of these trades are gonna get their faces ripped off but you know there's a lot of capital out

977
01:02:59,735 --> 01:03:07,956
there that can you know play this game and um you know it's uh you know it is what it is i mean it's

978
01:03:07,956 --> 01:03:14,275
it's a very volatile asset i mean i the way i look at it we math it out i mean

979
01:03:14,275 --> 01:03:17,575
$120,000 Bitcoin, $200,000

980
01:03:17,575 --> 01:03:19,235
Bitcoin is an $800 stock.

981
01:03:19,456 --> 01:03:20,235
I mean, it's, you know,

982
01:03:21,035 --> 01:03:22,655
you can buy it right now for $116,

983
01:03:23,055 --> 01:03:24,255
$112 today.

984
01:03:25,015 --> 01:03:25,695
It's down another $4.

985
01:03:26,075 --> 01:03:28,476
So, you know, to me,

986
01:03:28,675 --> 01:03:30,876
it's a very, very

987
01:03:30,876 --> 01:03:31,755
leveraged play.

988
01:03:32,255 --> 01:03:34,595
Do I think Bitcoin's going to go up 8x

989
01:03:34,595 --> 01:03:36,635
in this next run? No. I think it'll probably

990
01:03:36,635 --> 01:03:37,456
go up 4x.

991
01:03:38,635 --> 01:03:40,495
But, you know, you take

992
01:03:40,495 --> 01:03:42,435
Bitcoin from 60 or 3x. Take

993
01:03:42,435 --> 01:03:43,675
Bitcoin from 60 to 180.

994
01:03:44,275 --> 01:03:45,735
And you've got a three bagger.

995
01:03:46,476 --> 01:03:48,275
You know, you take Bitcoin from 60 to 180.

996
01:03:48,416 --> 01:03:52,695
And I think micro strategy is a five to eight bagger, depending upon what happens to MNAP.

997
01:03:52,976 --> 01:03:55,135
So, you know, that's what you're playing for.

998
01:03:55,336 --> 01:03:59,435
But in turn, you know, you've got the outside.

999
01:04:00,256 --> 01:04:00,655
Yeah.

1000
01:04:01,015 --> 01:04:04,376
I mean, you could say Bitcoin is going to go up 2x or Bitcoin is going to go up 100x.

1001
01:04:04,555 --> 01:04:05,396
And I'll agree with you.

1002
01:04:05,476 --> 01:04:07,856
I just, the timeframe changes at some point.

1003
01:04:09,035 --> 01:04:11,216
Look, I think the cycles will continue.

1004
01:04:11,376 --> 01:04:13,635
This will be, you know, I mean, look,

1005
01:04:13,636 --> 01:04:15,856
I'd like to have it go up 8x on the next uprun.

1006
01:04:15,976 --> 01:04:18,956
But if you kind of look historically at the upruns,

1007
01:04:19,055 --> 01:04:21,935
the multiple cuts has gotten progressively smaller

1008
01:04:21,935 --> 01:04:24,336
as it gets more widely distributed.

1009
01:04:24,535 --> 01:04:26,956
And that makes sense, just like the drawdowns have gotten smaller.

1010
01:04:27,456 --> 01:04:29,836
So it's totally logical, right?

1011
01:04:30,315 --> 01:04:32,735
I do think, though, if this is a stress test for a sailor,

1012
01:04:32,815 --> 01:04:33,735
that's got to be a good thing.

1013
01:04:33,916 --> 01:04:35,856
Whether you love sailor or you hate sailor,

1014
01:04:35,995 --> 01:04:37,456
someone holding that much Bitcoin,

1015
01:04:37,756 --> 01:04:40,216
they need to be stress tested to the highest degree.

1016
01:04:40,216 --> 01:04:42,615
And assuming he comes out of this well,

1017
01:04:42,695 --> 01:04:43,595
which I think he probably will,

1018
01:04:43,636 --> 01:04:44,916
Like, that's good. That's a good thing.

1019
01:04:45,356 --> 01:04:46,916
Absolutely. Absolutely.

1020
01:04:47,336 --> 01:04:53,195
I mean, that's, look, it's amazing to me that more people don't see it.

1021
01:04:53,195 --> 01:04:55,695
And it's amazing to me how much hate there is out there.

1022
01:04:56,016 --> 01:04:58,416
And I just, I don't get it.

1023
01:04:58,535 --> 01:05:01,176
You know, I just don't get it.

1024
01:05:02,636 --> 01:05:17,983
I do think some of the hate comes from the position where maybe they don necessarily hate Saylor They don necessarily hate what he doing But I think a lot of people don like that retail is being dragged into buying MicroStrategy or Stretch over just buying the underlying asset And I think maybe some of the hate

1025
01:05:17,983 --> 01:05:18,903
is to try and address that.

1026
01:05:19,323 --> 01:05:20,663
I'm sympathetic to that.

1027
01:05:20,783 --> 01:05:21,643
I'm sympathetic to that.

1028
01:05:21,703 --> 01:05:22,663
I mean, I think retail,

1029
01:05:23,303 --> 01:05:24,183
retail, you know,

1030
01:05:24,283 --> 01:05:26,763
look, if you really want to protect yourself financially,

1031
01:05:26,763 --> 01:05:28,023
your absolute first move

1032
01:05:28,023 --> 01:05:29,923
has got to be to buy the native Bitcoin

1033
01:05:29,923 --> 01:05:31,463
and cold storage full stop.

1034
01:05:32,163 --> 01:05:33,063
Because, you know,

1035
01:05:33,103 --> 01:05:35,163
they can 6102 you with an ETF

1036
01:05:35,163 --> 01:05:36,963
and, you know, all the other stuff.

1037
01:05:37,063 --> 01:05:37,203
I mean,

1038
01:05:37,783 --> 01:05:43,383
you know, you got it as a Bitcoin or you got to start off owning native Bitcoin in your own self-custard.

1039
01:05:43,383 --> 01:05:46,603
That's, that's, I always believe and preach that.

1040
01:05:46,763 --> 01:05:55,323
Now, if you then decide you want to do some other stuff, you know, for the obvious reasons that I've just talked about, you know, with a smaller percentage and okay, fine.

1041
01:05:55,443 --> 01:05:57,843
I mean, I, you know, I, earlier I said, don't use leverage.

1042
01:05:57,923 --> 01:05:58,583
And of course I'm here.

1043
01:05:58,663 --> 01:06:07,763
I am advocating using leverage, but, but I want to point out that, you know, my micro strategy position is probably less than 10% of my Bitcoin position.

1044
01:06:07,783 --> 01:06:13,363
position so you know i'm playing around at the margin not not betting the farm on microstrategy

1045
01:06:13,363 --> 01:06:18,403
yeah exactly it's all about how you position but i mean and who who am i to tell anyone what they

1046
01:06:18,403 --> 01:06:21,643
should do with their money i just think there's nothing more powerful than owning self-custody

1047
01:06:21,643 --> 01:06:26,503
bitcoin that's what people should be striving for absolutely i mean it's it's it's it's what you know

1048
01:06:26,503 --> 01:06:31,883
and we need to do it um and more people need to do it and yeah you know the etfs are good but

1049
01:06:31,883 --> 01:06:36,143
they're not great and you know i mean i get a little worried and we haven't talked about this

1050
01:06:36,143 --> 01:06:39,863
it all, but I get a little worried about what happens if and when, you know, we get a blue

1051
01:06:39,863 --> 01:06:45,343
team instead of a red team and, you know, they start to, you know, tax the hell out of, I mean,

1052
01:06:45,463 --> 01:06:50,083
just say Illinois put a tax, they're to tax it. They want to grab it. They want to, you know,

1053
01:06:50,123 --> 01:06:56,863
outlaw. I mean, you know, they're not particularly, um, you know, friendly to this stuff. And, uh,

1054
01:06:57,303 --> 01:07:01,923
and so, you know, I mean, they could grab the ETFs like they did with gold, et cetera, et cetera.

1055
01:07:01,923 --> 01:07:11,143
So, you know, I like knowing that, you know, 12 words, I can go to any country in the world and live and tell the U.S. government to pound sand if they want all my money.

1056
01:07:12,163 --> 01:07:16,123
So that's still the original and best use case for Bitcoin.

1057
01:07:17,463 --> 01:07:20,403
So, I mean, 100% agree.

1058
01:07:21,143 --> 01:07:26,383
Why do you think SATA has done reasonably well while Stretch has been struggling?

1059
01:07:26,623 --> 01:07:27,563
That's a great question.

1060
01:07:27,563 --> 01:07:32,123
You know, James Lavish, my partner at BOF is on the board there and I haven't talked to him about it.

1061
01:07:32,143 --> 01:07:37,523
I think, I think it might be, they're not as big a target as a, as a strategy.

1062
01:07:38,183 --> 01:07:40,283
Um, I think it also might be, they're not as leveraged.

1063
01:07:40,343 --> 01:07:40,763
I don't know.

1064
01:07:40,803 --> 01:07:41,743
I haven't even looked at that.

1065
01:07:41,843 --> 01:07:42,523
I could be wrong.

1066
01:07:42,583 --> 01:07:53,843
Maybe they're more leveraged, but I think, you know, I think strategy, one of the things that I think this might be informing Michael about too, is he might be looking at us and saying, okay, we probably push this just about as far as we can go for now.

1067
01:07:53,843 --> 01:07:58,503
in other words you know i mean well one he doesn't want to sell it you know down this cheap but

1068
01:07:58,503 --> 01:08:03,043
but i mean it you know this i mean the the balance he's always trying to figure out is

1069
01:08:03,043 --> 01:08:08,463
how leverage does he want to get right i mean he can always add leverage but in a very volatile

1070
01:08:08,463 --> 01:08:13,043
asset there's a certain amount of danger to that and you know based on how stretch is

1071
01:08:13,043 --> 01:08:18,383
is performing right now market might be saying hey dude you kind of got to the point where you

1072
01:08:18,383 --> 01:08:23,403
got enough leverage we don't want you to get any more you know what i mean yeah i think

1073
01:08:23,403 --> 01:08:27,123
Strive, their product,

1074
01:08:27,283 --> 01:08:29,243
they might not be quite as leveraged, and that might be

1075
01:08:29,243 --> 01:08:30,563
why it's holding out a little better. I don't know.

1076
01:08:31,203 --> 01:08:33,043
That's a hypothesis. I haven't checked that.

1077
01:08:33,243 --> 01:08:34,923
For all I know, they're more leveraged. I don't even know.

1078
01:08:35,883 --> 01:08:37,263
I think they do have very

1079
01:08:37,263 --> 01:08:39,103
low leverage, but I could be wrong on that as well,

1080
01:08:39,143 --> 01:08:39,603
to be honest.

1081
01:08:41,183 --> 01:08:43,303
Larry, I always love talking to you, man.

1082
01:08:43,903 --> 01:08:44,463
Well, thank you.

1083
01:08:45,343 --> 01:08:46,803
What's the key takeaway from this?

1084
01:08:46,803 --> 01:08:48,843
Is it the Fed's trapped, they're going to print,

1085
01:08:49,323 --> 01:08:49,983
buy self-dustinable?

1086
01:08:50,343 --> 01:08:51,283
Is it as easy as that?

1087
01:08:51,283 --> 01:08:56,803
I think the key takeaway is, you know, let's go back to, you know, first principles 101.

1088
01:08:57,583 --> 01:09:00,083
You know, what Saifedean taught us with a Bitcoin standard.

1089
01:09:00,383 --> 01:09:01,323
You're in this shit.

1090
01:09:01,403 --> 01:09:02,963
You got to have long time preference.

1091
01:09:03,403 --> 01:09:04,023
Full stop.

1092
01:09:04,783 --> 01:09:05,683
Anybody who's complaining.

1093
01:09:05,943 --> 01:09:09,823
And look, I mean, I know the feeling of wanting more money faster.

1094
01:09:09,983 --> 01:09:11,603
We all, that's human nature.

1095
01:09:11,723 --> 01:09:14,103
I mean, I, you know, I manage a gold and silver fund.

1096
01:09:14,183 --> 01:09:16,663
I mean, the fund was up 175% last year, right?

1097
01:09:17,163 --> 01:09:18,543
And this year we're kind of flat.

1098
01:09:18,543 --> 01:09:20,563
I'm like, geez, I want that to happen again.

1099
01:09:20,563 --> 01:09:25,383
You know, and it probably will, but not instantly.

1100
01:09:25,763 --> 01:09:26,343
Do you know what I mean?

1101
01:09:26,683 --> 01:09:33,963
And so, you know, this, I mean, this is a decade-long trade, this monetary debasement trade.

1102
01:09:34,283 --> 01:09:37,863
We will be proven wrong if the government becomes responsible.

1103
01:09:38,043 --> 01:09:39,343
So that's what I'm watching for.

1104
01:09:39,503 --> 01:09:46,083
I mean, you know, entitlement reform, cutting back on stuff, balancing the budget, all that kind of stuff.

1105
01:09:46,563 --> 01:09:47,303
Hang on a second.

1106
01:09:47,443 --> 01:09:48,883
We got to slow down here.

1107
01:09:48,883 --> 01:09:50,143
But I don't see any of that.

1108
01:09:50,563 --> 01:09:56,603
And so, you know, my view is just take a multi-year view of this thing.

1109
01:09:56,923 --> 01:09:58,663
You know, we're in the right place.

1110
01:09:58,663 --> 01:10:02,803
And, you know, I know there are a lot of people and I've got investors in my fund that I put into Bitcoin.

1111
01:10:02,963 --> 01:10:04,763
They're like, God damn, man, it's at 60.

1112
01:10:04,803 --> 01:10:05,703
I can't even bear it.

1113
01:10:06,123 --> 01:10:09,043
And I know, you know, that two years from now, it'll be 180.

1114
01:10:09,183 --> 01:10:10,483
And they'll be like, oh, God, it's 180.

1115
01:10:10,583 --> 01:10:11,363
I should buy more.

1116
01:10:11,443 --> 01:10:15,743
I'm like, well, you could, but, you know, you really should have been buying it back at 60.

1117
01:10:16,423 --> 01:10:17,203
You know what I mean?

1118
01:10:17,263 --> 01:10:20,083
And so it's just it's very hard.

1119
01:10:20,083 --> 01:10:24,823
I mean, so, you know, dollar cost averaging, you know, understanding the power law.

1120
01:10:24,963 --> 01:10:33,283
I mean, compared in the power law model and compared to its 200 day moving average, Bitcoin has only been this cheap about 10% of the time.

1121
01:10:34,363 --> 01:10:38,483
So with that, if somebody came to me, when somebody comes to me and says, should I buy some Bitcoin?

1122
01:10:38,563 --> 01:10:52,390
I generally say yes but you can only buy what you willing to have a 50 drawdown on and DCA the rest But actually if somebody came to me and said how much should I buy today I say you know shoot your WOD shoot a big piece of your WOD today because we in that band where it cheap

1123
01:10:52,890 --> 01:10:54,211
And that's what's hard for people to see.

1124
01:10:54,630 --> 01:10:56,230
I think 60,000, that's not cheap.

1125
01:10:56,270 --> 01:10:57,410
You bought it at 10,000.

1126
01:10:57,530 --> 01:10:58,211
That would be cheap.

1127
01:10:58,310 --> 01:10:59,450
Well, it's never going there again.

1128
01:10:59,990 --> 01:11:04,051
Okay, so, you know, and I'll wait till it gets to 40.

1129
01:11:04,130 --> 01:11:05,171
Well, then you won't buy it

1130
01:11:05,171 --> 01:11:06,211
because it's not going to 40.

1131
01:11:06,791 --> 01:11:08,831
You know, 60,000 using the models,

1132
01:11:09,211 --> 01:11:12,070
the sophisticated model that's got a 95% R-squared

1133
01:11:12,070 --> 01:11:17,351
that Giovanni built and that Fred Kruger has elaborated on, you know, tells you that it's

1134
01:11:17,351 --> 01:11:22,331
cheap right now. So buy it. So, you know, and then, I mean, the rest of it is just like,

1135
01:11:22,470 --> 01:11:27,011
like go live your life. I mean, I'm, I've dialed back a little bit on these shows. I've dialed back

1136
01:11:27,011 --> 01:11:30,931
on, you know, making appearances and stuff. I mean, I'm, I do the pods with people I really

1137
01:11:30,931 --> 01:11:36,591
like like yourself and, you know, I mean, I'm focusing on, you know, my family and fitness

1138
01:11:36,591 --> 01:11:42,591
and you know because i just want to make sure i want to be around to see the failure of the

1139
01:11:42,591 --> 01:11:50,771
central bankers like i live for that okay i mean you follow my ex feed you know i hate central

1140
01:11:50,771 --> 01:11:56,230
bankers absolutely hate it and and i want to i want to i want to be around to see them with egg

1141
01:11:56,230 --> 01:12:01,290
on their face and yeah we need you around for that larry you keep up the crossfit keep it going

1142
01:12:01,290 --> 01:12:03,351
I'm telling you, man, I'm aiming for it.

1143
01:12:03,351 --> 01:12:04,730
My mom's in her mid-90s.

1144
01:12:05,631 --> 01:12:07,810
I'm turning 69 next week.

1145
01:12:08,851 --> 01:12:09,650
God damn it.

1146
01:12:10,610 --> 01:12:13,150
I'm aiming for 100, and I think by then we'll see it.

1147
01:12:13,150 --> 01:12:17,771
So let's hope nothing happens and I can get there.

1148
01:12:17,890 --> 01:12:21,570
But the point is that you've got to dial out here, guys.

1149
01:12:21,711 --> 01:12:23,051
I mean, it's going to be fine.

1150
01:12:23,331 --> 01:12:24,551
This is all going to be fine.

1151
01:12:24,670 --> 01:12:28,690
I mean, as early as December, we could be high-fiving each other.

1152
01:12:28,690 --> 01:12:32,011
I mean, you know, six weeks from now, the Fed's going to meet again.

1153
01:12:32,290 --> 01:12:38,190
You know, his task force is going to have some great report and he's going to blame it.

1154
01:12:38,251 --> 01:12:44,831
He's going to follow it, maybe, and say, you know, we actually need to reduce or be thinking about reducing rates.

1155
01:12:44,970 --> 01:12:55,150
They'll probably have a couple of good prints between now and then because housing is soft, you know, particularly in Florida and Texas, and energy will be soft.

1156
01:12:55,150 --> 01:13:00,950
and so you know and and right now you know the fed fed watch site is saying there's like an 80

1157
01:13:00,950 --> 01:13:05,870
chance of a hike this year well when the market wakes up and realizes they're not going to hike

1158
01:13:05,870 --> 01:13:10,150
that in fact they're going to cut what do you think is going to happen to this ship it's going

1159
01:13:10,150 --> 01:13:16,211
to explode you know we're gonna i mean you're going to see bitcoin at 120 before you can blink

1160
01:13:16,211 --> 01:13:21,290
your eye you're going to see gold at 7 000 before you can blink your eyes so so you know am i willing

1161
01:13:21,290 --> 01:13:26,810
to wait till December for that to happen? Sure. Yeah. I don't care. What have I got? I got nothing

1162
01:13:26,810 --> 01:13:34,270
but time. I mean, am I impatient and frustrated? Sure, I am. And I blew the call. I really wish,

1163
01:13:34,690 --> 01:13:40,051
I thought he was going to be dollars and I was wrong, but they're pretty smart and they decided

1164
01:13:40,051 --> 01:13:45,530
to change the game. Oh, let's go to this no guidance and let's reiterate how serious we are

1165
01:13:45,530 --> 01:13:47,530
about tackling inflation.

1166
01:13:48,591 --> 01:13:49,631
And, oh, and we're going to,

1167
01:13:49,631 --> 01:13:50,070
we're going to,

1168
01:13:50,230 --> 01:13:51,251
a new strategy.

1169
01:13:51,431 --> 01:13:52,331
We've got a committee.

1170
01:13:52,610 --> 01:13:54,271
We have a task force

1171
01:13:54,271 --> 01:13:55,810
that's going to figure out

1172
01:13:55,810 --> 01:13:57,411
how to solve this problem.

1173
01:13:57,591 --> 01:13:59,450
And we're going to rely on them

1174
01:13:59,450 --> 01:14:00,790
and you're going to believe in me.

1175
01:14:01,271 --> 01:14:03,670
Good God, what a bunch of crap.

1176
01:14:04,070 --> 01:14:04,730
You know what I'm saying?

1177
01:14:05,911 --> 01:14:07,771
Can't people see through this shit?

1178
01:14:07,911 --> 01:14:10,030
It's just, it's just total horseshit, Danny.

1179
01:14:10,290 --> 01:14:11,011
You know it.

1180
01:14:11,070 --> 01:14:11,670
I know it.

1181
01:14:12,131 --> 01:14:13,810
So, you know, like,

1182
01:14:13,810 --> 01:14:19,110
Let's all just chill and stop attacking each other because it's all going to work out great.

1183
01:14:19,650 --> 01:14:25,470
We're all going to be rich and eventually we'll have a sound money system and we won't have to deal with these jokers anymore.

1184
01:14:26,931 --> 01:14:27,490
Let's go.

1185
01:14:27,591 --> 01:14:28,771
I look forward to that future.

1186
01:14:29,190 --> 01:14:30,150
That's where I am.

1187
01:14:30,411 --> 01:14:30,771
You know what I mean?

1188
01:14:31,911 --> 01:14:33,290
Hawkish now, dovish later.

1189
01:14:33,390 --> 01:14:34,131
It's always the same.

1190
01:14:34,131 --> 01:14:36,631
Tell everyone where they can go and buy your amazing book.

1191
01:14:36,970 --> 01:14:38,030
Thanks for putting the book up.

1192
01:14:38,030 --> 01:14:46,970
Yeah, so the book is available on Amazon, hardcover, paperback, audio, Kindle, all that stuff.

1193
01:14:47,110 --> 01:14:54,610
And, you know, I wrote it to try to help the average person understand how and why they're being screwed and how to solve it.

1194
01:14:54,851 --> 01:14:59,470
And I've gotten feedback that it works, not for everybody, but for a lot of people it works.

1195
01:15:00,110 --> 01:15:02,770
And so if you like it, please pass it on to your friends.

1196
01:15:02,770 --> 01:15:15,530
I mean, we got to develop, we need a sound money army in the world so that, you know, we, we vote for, push for, advocate for, make noise about, and eventually return to sound money.

1197
01:15:15,530 --> 01:15:19,631
Because when we do, things will be so much better.

1198
01:15:19,870 --> 01:15:22,270
I mean, so many of our problems will go away.

1199
01:15:22,331 --> 01:15:24,051
That's, that's my strongly held belief.

1200
01:15:24,411 --> 01:15:26,170
So hopefully we'll do it.

1201
01:15:26,170 --> 01:15:27,490
That's some first turning shit right there.

1202
01:15:27,530 --> 01:15:29,070
And I can't wait for the first turning.

1203
01:15:29,211 --> 01:15:29,670
Let's go.

1204
01:15:30,110 --> 01:15:31,251
You'll have, you'll be married.

1205
01:15:31,351 --> 01:15:31,990
You'll have kids.

1206
01:15:31,990 --> 01:15:34,211
it's just going to be great, Danny. It's all

1207
01:15:34,211 --> 01:15:34,810
going to be great.

1208
01:15:35,711 --> 01:15:37,530
I'm still married to more kids, hopefully.

1209
01:15:39,251 --> 01:15:40,251
Oh, I'm sorry.

1210
01:15:40,251 --> 01:15:41,110
I didn't realize you were married.

1211
01:15:42,890 --> 01:15:43,911
Do you have a child?

1212
01:15:44,650 --> 01:15:45,450
Yeah, I've got a daughter.

1213
01:15:46,070 --> 01:15:48,370
Oh, I didn't realize that. Oh, I'm out of date.

1214
01:15:48,510 --> 01:15:49,911
I'm sorry. I didn't realize.

1215
01:15:49,911 --> 01:15:50,610
That's all good.

1216
01:15:52,010 --> 01:15:54,030
So more children. That's what I'm going for.

1217
01:15:54,310 --> 01:15:55,551
Yeah, exactly. There you go.

1218
01:15:56,270 --> 01:15:58,091
Alright, Larry. Appreciate the time, man.

1219
01:15:58,290 --> 01:15:59,911
You're one of my favorite people to speak to.

1220
01:15:59,911 --> 01:16:01,211
and we'll do it again soon.

1221
01:16:01,770 --> 01:16:02,131
Anytime.

1222
01:16:02,310 --> 01:16:02,831
I love it, Danny.

1223
01:16:02,911 --> 01:16:03,351
Thank you.

1224
01:16:03,890 --> 01:16:04,390
Thank you.