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Everyone's like lined up for the comfortable lie.

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No one wants to get in the line of the inconvenient truth.

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Would he start launching nukes?

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What happens next?

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People are paying $350,000 for a jet ride out of the Middle East.

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You're in the UAE and you need to get your money out of UAE as fast as you can.

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I buy some Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin was going up as things were getting worse in the Middle East.

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Normally, Bitcoin is fully risk-on.

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And in this case, it was actually acting as risk off.

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This is going to go really fast.

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You know, it moves, you know, connect up a couple computers, boom, gone.

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GTFO, like game over, see you later.

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People are going to pay their mortgages and their car loans and credit card bills.

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And then those things are going to blow up something in private credit and private credit's going to have an issue.

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And then the banks are going to pull back on lending.

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And any kind of recession will force us into default on the treasuries or entitlements or print the money.

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And they'll print the money.

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I don't know how they're going to get there.

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To me, the only debate is how fast.

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Luke Groman, great to see you, mate.

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How are you?

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Well, Danny, how are you?

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I am really good, thank you.

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I was just talking to you before we started recording.

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It's 6 a.m. here in Australia, and I was like, what did I miss, Luke?

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And you said, well, the war's over.

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So fill us in.

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What's happened while I've been asleep?

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Um, well, was you were going to bed, you probably saw oil at one 19.

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Uh, it finished.

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It is now at 84 again.

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It basically went straight downhill after they came in this morning.

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Uh, there was a rumor of a G well, not a rumor, a report that G seven was going to get together

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and sell their oil out of their SPR, uh, to get oil down.

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Then they said, well, we're not actually doing that.

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Um, yeah.

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We've seen more news of refineries shutting down.

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I think I saw the Saudis.

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There was news last night of the U.S. evacuating its embassy in Saudi Arabia.

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There was news earlier today, potential, I'm not sure if this was confirmed,

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the U.S. consulate was evacuated in Adana, Turkey.

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This afternoon, Israel came out and said,

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And there was a report in Washington Post, essentially, that Israeli officials were beginning to, quote unquote, get concerned.

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Understandably so, with Tel Aviv getting hit last night and the lights getting apparently turned off, as the reports that I saw.

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We had, what was the next thing?

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Oh, we had Senator Warmonger from South Carolina.

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What's his name?

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I can't think of it.

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At any rate, this guy has like literally been dreaming about bombing Iran since he was in the crib.

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And at any rate, he came out today and said, oh, the Saudis are not supporting us.

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Maybe we should like slow this down a little bit.

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What's going on here?

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And Senator Graham, Lindsey Graham, that's his name.

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not Senator warmonger, uh, translates actually in South Carolinian Senator Lindsey Graham

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translates to warmonger.

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Anyway, I'm being more overtly political than I usually am.

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I should stop it.

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Um, it's only because I think it strategically was a very big mistake at any rate.

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Uh, shortly thereafter, the Iranians came out and said, every missile we fire from now

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on is going to be more than one ton warhead.

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Uh, which, you know, I tweeted at the times, a big, uh, geopolitical poker call, right?

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poke, call, and raise, which is we've been saying we have plenty of air defense missiles left. The

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Israelis have been saying same, and we've both been saying the Iranians are going to run out soon.

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And the Iranians are like, we can keep doing this for a while, and we're fine. And we're about to

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find out. And literally, probably about 20 minutes after that headline hit, and about an hour or so

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after the Israeli Washington Post headlines hit, we have a CBS report citing Trump that he's

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saying basically the war's over, that we've destroyed their navy,

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and we've largely disrupted their ability to shoot missiles.

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Now, literally 20 minutes after he said that, Iran began getting hit,

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or Israel began reporting getting hit by more missiles overnight.

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Yeah, it's getting to be nighttime there now, or it is nighttime there now.

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So markets are rallying. Oil is down a bunch.

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Um, it's been like a giant seesaw up and down across most markets today.

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And I feel like that's a day of my life I'll never get back.

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Who's been the winner out of this situation?

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Because, um, I think Trump expected to go in this to be over very quickly and maybe

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didn't expect the pushback from Iran that they got.

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And like Iran have been on the offensive in a way that like, I don't know if anyone imagined.

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i think we have done a lot of damage to iran

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i think israel's done a lot of damage to iran i think israel was

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is is was is staring down the prospect of tel avid being turned into something that looks like gaza

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which is to say flattened um

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I think forget about what I think I know Iran was much more effective than our planners thought

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why they thought that I don't know we're supposed to have superior intelligence I think our war

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planners were telling our civilian leadership exactly that there were hints of that two weeks

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ago when Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Cain, General Cain, came out and was quoted in at least

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four of the most important media around Washington and New York City in the Beltway saying,

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we don't have the weapons to do this, essentially. Effectively, like,

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distancing himself from this, putting it all on Trump. And in the ensuing two weeks,

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It hasn't gone nearly as well as advertised, which I, again, I know for a fact I'm not guessing at that based on what I'm hearing.

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And so it definitely destroyed a lot of stuff on the ground for Iran.

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Israel got bloodied up.

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the you the uh iran navy not that that was ever really a threat

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was definitely a big w for us and an l for them um now what did iran and the if this really is the

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end of the war i would probably gun to my head at best chalk it up to a strategic draw and possibly

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you know you know you're you're a former fighter right i would probably give it i would probably

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from a strategic standpoint it probably would be a you know i don't know one one one one with i

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mean yeah literal a literal draw right i'm not a big boxing or fighting guy so but but and the

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reason i say that is they got him to taco again they got him to taco again oil goes to 100 and

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And he panics as he has to panic because he doesn't have, you know, a year ago with Liberation Day, we said that the bond market were his broken ribs, were the U.S.'s broken ribs.

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And a fighter who knows the other fighters ribs are broken is going to beat on those ribs until they're on the canvas.

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And the U.S. can't abide a hundred dollar oil.

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They can't.

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The bond market can't.

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And stock market can't.

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And we just saw that.

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And so that was a big tell.

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But I think even bigger than that, because I don't think that's necessarily a shock to anybody, is, A, I hear very credible rumblings that the United States strategic radars, and New York Times wrote about this, not quite in this depth, but that our strategic radars were heavily damaged or destroyed around Gulf.

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and there's a lot of people that as of a couple hours ago were saying we need to keep doing this

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we're doing this to to really put the squeeze on china those same writers were not talking about

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you know how do we rebuild strategic radars without chinese rare earths

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and if the chinese might be slightly reticent to sell those rare earths to rebuild our strategic

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radars. And I think bigger picture, there's been a lot of people sort of bragging about how we're

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running a protection racket, essentially, which we kind of are, right? You know, some of the,

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you know, hashtag Murica crowd, you know, hey, we've got the world's best military and we run

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a protection racket and there's nothing they can do about it. Yes. And when you run a protection

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racket, and then you don't protect, that starts raising very uncomfortable questions amongst the

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protectees. And what they start to say is, you know what, we're going to invest in our own

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protection. Well, we needed those dollars flowing into our treasuries, markets, AI, etc.

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um and so that's kind of a tbd to be determined outcome to it so you know it's it's kind of like

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we we definitely got a you know a victory from the standpoint of look there's a bunch of stuff

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burning and the leaders are dead and you know it's you know i saw one meme said you know it look

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it's a victory it took us 21 years to remove the taliban and replace you know take afghanistan from

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the Taliban and then give it back to the Taliban.

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It only took us eight days

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to take Iran from Khomeini and give

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it back to Khomeini.

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That was

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a lot faster. I couldn't help but

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laugh at that.

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Like I said, I netted

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out, if this really is the end of the war,

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it's at best

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to draw.

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Because

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if I'm Iran, Iran is going to now

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like work as fast as possible to get nukes number one yeah and china knowing that we are going to

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try to use iran to cut them off their oil is going to help them get those nukes as fast as they can

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as will the russians because the russians it's a bit of an underbelly for the russians

141
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and we learned that what eric prince former head of blackwater

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said last February was true,

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which is there's been a revolution in the military affairs.

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And missiles and drones have made obsolete

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a lot of existing equipment.

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And there is a lot that has occurred in the last two weeks

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to support that view,

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not least of which is the closing of the Gulf, right?

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We have the most dominant Navy in the world,

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and they closed the Strait of Hormuz with missiles.

151
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And our Navy wouldn't get anywhere near it.

152
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And that's sort of that line of inconvenient truths and comfortable lies.

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And everyone's lined up for the comfortable lie.

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No one wants to get in the line of the inconvenient truth,

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which is we do have the world's most dominant Navy.

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There's no question about that.

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But that world's most dominant Navy wouldn't dare

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go into the Strait of Hormuz over the last two weeks.

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Why?

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And I've heard some very credible rumblings on the ground as to why that is.

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And that's why I would say at best case, it's a draw.

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So, you know, let's see what happens.

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It's Trump.

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You know, this could change, you know, tomorrow.

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This could change tonight.

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Who knows?

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But at any rate, it's been a heck of a day.

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It's been a heck of a week.

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In boxing terms, it really has.

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In boxing terms, this seems like it's not a victory.

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It's like someone's got cut and they've stopped the fight.

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But the thing that I can't quite figure out is what this means.

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Like, there's so many questions in this.

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One is that, like, they wanted regime change in Iran.

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They kind of got that.

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But have they going to have just brought someone in who's going to hate America even more?

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He's seen his family liquidated by missiles.

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Like, what does that do to his psyche?

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Like, is this actually over?

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and if it is even for now who's got the upper hand in negotiations because if i was the the

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man in charge of iran i would be like we need to ramp up now let's actually get nukes

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yeah i mean i i've heard conflicting things on the the new guy right so like his regime change

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ostensibly but it's it's um you know father to son i've heard the son is harder line i've heard

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Maybe he's not as bright as the father. I don't know. That's one person whose views I respect asserted that. I don't know their grounds for saying that or basis for saying that.

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I hear I have another person I respect who says he's you know this new leader is respected by the IRGC right the Republican Guard or whatever they are and that he was in naval intelligence or military intelligence which suggests he's not that dumb.

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um and look i i just think there's i look at it simplistically which is i try to put myself in

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every other person's shoes i ever interact with to understand their motivations and if someone

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killed my father my wife and my children with with a drone and then i knew like like there was

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overnight there was a um overnight my time a iranian general on their state media saying like

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trump and netanyahu have have are now stuck in a persian gulf slaughterhouse because

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they're running out air defense missiles and we know it and in the next three four days

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we're gonna pound on them and so if it's me

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I pound on him and I don't I think I don't I would like to think I'm a better person than that

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um but I'm I probably not that's probably I'd have to do some work around that right that's

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you know our good lord himself it was probably the only person on earth that isn't gonna be

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saying oh wait he has not a lot of defenses left button button button button um and tonight you

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know we'll see i'll get all i was i was getting on i was seeing some reports i've not seen anything

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um of more strikes tonight from iran into israel so let's see um but the broader point is is

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the other guy gets a say right this is like in a boxing match you don't get in the middle of the

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boxing match just go you know okay i'm done for now oh i broke my hand we're good right no you

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You've got to keep fighting for, you know, or you've got to take a knee.

202
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You've got to go down.

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So I think it's going to be very interesting to see the next couple days.

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Because if the other side, if Iran doesn't back down, and especially if they really do start hitting Israel more aggressively,

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then what?

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Because it's very hard to say

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would Netanyahu

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when faced with Tel Aviv

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getting turned into Gaza, would he start launching

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nukes? Bet him, man, I bet he would.

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Then what?

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Do Russia and China

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get involved then? What happens

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next?

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Like,

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00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,180
so let's see, but

217
00:16:32,180 --> 00:16:33,240
I'm

218
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:48,909
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267
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which is swan.com forward slash wbd so what do you think would have actually gone into trump's

268
00:19:02,729 --> 00:19:06,969
decision making more would it have been the missiles and drones the actual kinetic side of

269
00:19:06,969 --> 00:19:12,289
this war or would it have been the economics with oil going to you know 110 dollars a barrel

270
00:19:12,289 --> 00:19:17,109
think that is visibly the thing that is causing him to pull back i think that is the thing that

271
00:19:17,109 --> 00:19:24,529
is not visible to most people is what has happened to our radars on the ground our ability to protect

272
00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:29,789
allies in the Gulf, what that is doing to their willingness to host American bases and

273
00:19:29,789 --> 00:19:33,069
troops, et cetera.

274
00:19:34,749 --> 00:19:40,369
You know, I've said before in this year a couple of different times in both reports and in

275
00:19:40,369 --> 00:19:45,129
public appearances, it's really important these days to ask about the dog that doesn't

276
00:19:45,129 --> 00:19:50,509
bark, you know, or as Charlie Munger says, invert, invert, invert, always invert, right?

277
00:19:50,509 --> 00:19:55,449
Secretary Rubio was on

278
00:19:55,449 --> 00:19:57,809
you know the idiot box today

279
00:19:57,809 --> 00:19:59,269
talking you know he literally said

280
00:19:59,269 --> 00:20:01,389
with our most powerful military

281
00:20:01,389 --> 00:20:02,829
in the history of the world

282
00:20:02,829 --> 00:20:04,149
we

283
00:20:04,149 --> 00:20:07,289
you know we are doing this

284
00:20:07,289 --> 00:20:09,369
and we're focusing on now a week ago

285
00:20:09,369 --> 00:20:11,009
was regime change it's not regime change anymore

286
00:20:11,009 --> 00:20:13,389
now it is getting rid of their ability

287
00:20:13,389 --> 00:20:14,649
to shoot missiles and sinking their navy

288
00:20:14,649 --> 00:20:17,529
which is in my opinion de-escalatory

289
00:20:17,529 --> 00:20:18,009
anyway

290
00:20:18,009 --> 00:20:20,069
but the reason I

291
00:20:20,069 --> 00:20:23,149
I would get to go exactly one of these press conferences.

292
00:20:23,289 --> 00:20:24,749
I'd be like, Mr. Secretary,

293
00:20:25,169 --> 00:20:28,149
if we have the most powerful military

294
00:20:28,149 --> 00:20:28,929
in the history of the world,

295
00:20:29,089 --> 00:20:30,409
why don't we just send the Navy

296
00:20:30,409 --> 00:20:32,209
into the Strait of Hormuz and open it up?

297
00:20:33,669 --> 00:20:37,749
And he'd go, uh, uh, mm, eh, well, uh.

298
00:20:38,409 --> 00:20:40,569
And once you look at it from that angle,

299
00:20:41,289 --> 00:20:46,249
that I think is the sort of the taco that is,

300
00:20:46,509 --> 00:20:49,829
you know, that's the secret sauce on the taco.

301
00:20:49,829 --> 00:20:55,769
I think the overt, you know, the shell and the meat and the cheese and the lettuce is, yeah, oil's at 100.

302
00:20:55,989 --> 00:20:59,769
Treasury market's gone from 3.95 to it was 4.20 last night.

303
00:21:01,009 --> 00:21:03,369
You know, it's back to 4.10 today.

304
00:21:04,229 --> 00:21:10,329
But you're up 26 basis points in, what was that, six trading days.

305
00:21:11,169 --> 00:21:12,909
You get the stock market down.

306
00:21:13,049 --> 00:21:14,869
You got gas prices up a ton.

307
00:21:14,869 --> 00:21:20,789
uh you got polls in this country that are very much going against him um

308
00:21:20,789 --> 00:21:29,089
and that was sort of the big but i think sort of the underpinning of it is it didn't go like they

309
00:21:29,089 --> 00:21:39,069
thought it was the iranians were it was and it's i want to be clear some of this was iran but i

310
00:21:39,069 --> 00:21:45,769
think a bigger part of it is what eric prince talked about which is eric prince last year said

311
00:21:45,769 --> 00:21:52,549
this is the biggest change in military strategy since stirrups were put on horses 800 years ago

312
00:21:52,549 --> 00:21:58,989
like and it allowed genghis khan to run rough shot and what his point was is that missiles and

313
00:21:58,989 --> 00:22:07,789
drones have made obsolete trillions of installed equipment of the hegemon that's the reason we

314
00:22:07,789 --> 00:22:11,769
didn't run the navy into the strait of hormuz that's the reason why once the missiles started

315
00:22:11,769 --> 00:22:18,129
flying some of our carriers went away from the action deeper into the indian ocean i'm told

316
00:22:18,129 --> 00:22:28,929
because missiles and drones the mayhem doctrine has has been enforced by navy i made a tweet about

317
00:22:28,929 --> 00:22:35,689
this the other day and and you know a number of people rightfully uh called me out that i wasn't

318
00:22:35,689 --> 00:22:41,489
specific enough. I said that it was 250 years, really 200 plus with when you add in Britain,

319
00:22:41,489 --> 00:22:49,429
of mayhem doctrine has been turned on its head. Naval, you know, it had been, you use your Navy

320
00:22:49,429 --> 00:22:57,509
to control naval checkpoints and you control the world. And missiles and drones, which we just saw,

321
00:22:58,009 --> 00:23:05,629
mean that naval checkpoints turn into kill zones for navies. And so you've had 400 years of

322
00:23:05,629 --> 00:23:11,529
of world geopolitics defined by blue water Navy powers,

323
00:23:11,749 --> 00:23:12,169
America,

324
00:23:12,769 --> 00:23:13,149
and then,

325
00:23:13,289 --> 00:23:13,849
and arguably,

326
00:23:14,089 --> 00:23:14,249
you know,

327
00:23:14,269 --> 00:23:14,749
the Spain,

328
00:23:15,789 --> 00:23:16,189
England,

329
00:23:18,289 --> 00:23:18,809
Portugal,

330
00:23:19,049 --> 00:23:19,349
Spain,

331
00:23:19,569 --> 00:23:19,749
England,

332
00:23:19,889 --> 00:23:20,209
America,

333
00:23:20,329 --> 00:23:20,849
or maybe Spain,

334
00:23:20,949 --> 00:23:21,149
Portugal.

335
00:23:21,329 --> 00:23:23,269
I forget what the order that was to us a long time ago,

336
00:23:23,349 --> 00:23:23,889
but you're three,

337
00:23:23,969 --> 00:23:27,809
400 years that the people who had the deep blue water Navy

338
00:23:27,809 --> 00:23:29,969
control the world.

339
00:23:30,969 --> 00:23:32,489
And I think bigger picture,

340
00:23:32,789 --> 00:23:34,489
this is,

341
00:23:35,629 --> 00:23:37,589
tells us that world's over.

342
00:23:37,769 --> 00:23:39,289
And if that world's over,

343
00:23:40,669 --> 00:23:44,489
enormous, enormous implications,

344
00:23:44,789 --> 00:23:45,489
enormous implications.

345
00:23:46,509 --> 00:23:47,629
So what are those implications?

346
00:23:47,769 --> 00:23:49,789
Especially like if we get into the sort of

347
00:23:49,789 --> 00:23:50,969
economic side of things,

348
00:23:51,029 --> 00:23:51,849
like how is this,

349
00:23:52,049 --> 00:23:54,029
like I think the picture's probably changed

350
00:23:54,029 --> 00:23:55,389
just in the last few hours

351
00:23:55,389 --> 00:23:56,369
with Trump making the announcement

352
00:23:56,369 --> 00:23:57,609
that the war might be coming to an end.

353
00:23:57,689 --> 00:23:58,769
But like how are you,

354
00:23:59,049 --> 00:23:59,869
what's your read on that?

355
00:23:59,989 --> 00:24:01,909
Especially like in the early moments of this.

356
00:24:03,529 --> 00:24:04,349
If that's true,

357
00:24:04,349 --> 00:24:06,389
if it's true that the war's over

358
00:24:06,389 --> 00:24:10,469
the missile and drone thing is

359
00:24:10,469 --> 00:24:13,649
absolutely

360
00:24:13,649 --> 00:24:16,509
and what it means is it's essentially democratizing

361
00:24:16,509 --> 00:24:18,709
of war in the same way

362
00:24:18,709 --> 00:24:20,009
that

363
00:24:20,009 --> 00:24:25,309
the internet was democratizing

364
00:24:25,309 --> 00:24:26,289
a whole lot of stuff

365
00:24:26,289 --> 00:24:29,989
in the old days

366
00:24:29,989 --> 00:24:31,969
20 years ago, 30 years ago

367
00:24:31,969 --> 00:24:36,189
right? A couple of music companies had all the A&R agents and they had all the relationships with

368
00:24:36,189 --> 00:24:40,089
the radio stations. And if you were a band, you had to like, you know, play a bunch of shows,

369
00:24:40,169 --> 00:24:45,969
get discovered, get signed, go on tour, build an audience, get on the radio, right? All this stuff.

370
00:24:47,849 --> 00:24:50,809
And then the internet and iTunes and what have you is just like,

371
00:24:52,129 --> 00:24:57,829
now you just got to know how to play. If you play, you can play, you can find an audience

372
00:24:57,829 --> 00:24:59,669
and you can become world famous

373
00:24:59,669 --> 00:25:01,769
and you don't need radio stations,

374
00:25:01,969 --> 00:25:02,989
you don't need DJs,

375
00:25:03,009 --> 00:25:04,249
you don't need A&R guys

376
00:25:04,249 --> 00:25:05,969
and those record companies as execs

377
00:25:05,969 --> 00:25:07,149
and all of them taking their cut.

378
00:25:07,829 --> 00:25:08,249
Gone.

379
00:25:09,629 --> 00:25:11,289
And in the same way,

380
00:25:13,689 --> 00:25:16,049
the United States Navy

381
00:25:16,049 --> 00:25:19,769
could not open the Strait of Hormuz.

382
00:25:20,309 --> 00:25:22,309
And I think people need to keep saying that

383
00:25:22,309 --> 00:25:24,789
over and over until the implication of it

384
00:25:24,789 --> 00:25:25,929
hits them.

385
00:25:27,829 --> 00:25:31,149
the United States Navy is the record company

386
00:25:31,149 --> 00:25:34,349
with the A&R guys and the big expensive stuff.

387
00:25:36,929 --> 00:25:39,529
And Iran with missiles and drones,

388
00:25:39,809 --> 00:25:41,269
I mean, what does Iran spend on their military

389
00:25:41,269 --> 00:25:42,189
relative to us?

390
00:25:43,649 --> 00:25:46,489
I mean, if they spent one one hundredth of what we spend,

391
00:25:47,269 --> 00:25:49,369
it might be, maybe it's one fiftieth, who knows?

392
00:25:49,469 --> 00:25:50,889
I don't know, but it's not a lot.

393
00:25:50,889 --> 00:25:55,289
And yet, best case of draw?

394
00:25:55,289 --> 00:26:06,269
okay then what does that mean for macroeconomics multi-polarity you know we want to trade outside

395
00:26:06,269 --> 00:26:11,129
the dollar well we're going to send the navy to come beat your head and okay send it into the

396
00:26:11,129 --> 00:26:19,309
strait of hormuz you know and you know the chinese are reportedly you know uh john um

397
00:26:19,309 --> 00:26:27,649
David P. Goldman reported two years ago that the Chinese can produce 1,000 cruise missile motors a day.

398
00:26:27,929 --> 00:26:35,929
We reportedly have 6,000 Tomahawks roughly, less now, 6,000 Tomahawks in cruise missiles in inventory in total.

399
00:26:36,489 --> 00:26:39,909
They can make missiles for that in a week, for that many.

400
00:26:39,909 --> 00:26:56,469
And so it turns into, if we want to stop de-dollarization, if we want to stop multipolarity, how many times have you heard it? It's too many for me to count, but ultimately the U.S. military backs the dollar.

401
00:26:56,469 --> 00:27:01,309
right what backs the dollar is we have 13 carrier groups yeah and none of them wanted to go to the

402
00:27:01,309 --> 00:27:07,929
strait of hormuz because of iran's drone and missiles which cost way less than those 13 carrier

403
00:27:07,929 --> 00:27:14,369
battle groups that is that's every bit the shift in power that eric prince talked about and and it

404
00:27:14,369 --> 00:27:19,069
was just manifested in the last two weeks so do you think china are looking at this thinking well

405
00:27:19,069 --> 00:27:28,969
we're the superpower now then i i think they are looking at not superpowers broadly in the in the

406
00:27:28,969 --> 00:27:36,109
traditional sense of the word but i think china understands it is the manufacturing uh linchpin

407
00:27:36,109 --> 00:27:42,629
and i think russia understands and has understood i think they've understood this for

408
00:27:42,629 --> 00:27:49,109
10 years, certainly last five years, that the world cannot survive without Russia's oil.

409
00:27:49,109 --> 00:27:53,269
That was one of the most hilarious things going into last weekend, right? Which was

410
00:27:53,269 --> 00:28:03,049
Scott Besson on Friday night, his oils at 95 and ripping high or into the weekend.

411
00:28:03,329 --> 00:28:07,949
He gets on with Larry Kudlow and says, well, we're going to unsanction Russian oil.

412
00:28:07,949 --> 00:28:14,849
despite the fact that the washington post had just reported that the russians were helping

413
00:28:14,849 --> 00:28:22,869
the iranians target american assets despite the fact that russia is still supporting ukraine

414
00:28:22,869 --> 00:28:31,049
who's who's the power guy in commodities in that case it's russia it's not that says a lot it says

415
00:28:31,049 --> 00:28:32,809
a lot. It says all you need to know.

416
00:28:33,749 --> 00:28:33,949
And

417
00:28:33,949 --> 00:28:38,969
that's the part that these guys, whether

418
00:28:38,969 --> 00:28:40,849
they be Biden or whether they be Trump's

419
00:28:40,849 --> 00:28:43,049
administration, they just, they don't get.

420
00:28:46,169 --> 00:28:47,209
If Iran,

421
00:28:47,569 --> 00:28:48,769
Russia, and China,

422
00:28:49,069 --> 00:28:51,109
with a little help from India, all stay inside

423
00:28:51,109 --> 00:28:52,269
the tent pissing out,

424
00:28:53,109 --> 00:28:55,029
you can take Iran's oil offline

425
00:28:55,029 --> 00:28:58,929
and

426
00:28:58,929 --> 00:29:00,669
Russia has all the power.

427
00:29:01,049 --> 00:29:02,289
Because now you can't take it.

428
00:29:02,349 --> 00:29:03,609
You've got to have Russia running full out.

429
00:29:03,889 --> 00:29:07,249
You can take Russia offline and control Iran.

430
00:29:07,489 --> 00:29:15,809
But again, if you pick fight with either of them, you're going to blow up the oil market.

431
00:29:15,909 --> 00:29:17,889
When you blow up the oil market, you're going to blow up the treasury market.

432
00:29:17,949 --> 00:29:20,849
You blow up the treasury market, you're going to blow up the government's ability to fund itself.

433
00:29:21,049 --> 00:29:24,829
And so we just kind of ran through this very, very quickly.

434
00:29:24,989 --> 00:29:26,389
And so kind of here we are again.

435
00:29:28,549 --> 00:29:30,749
So I don't think they think they're superpowers.

436
00:29:30,749 --> 00:29:48,449
I think they know. I think they know what they are. I think they understand the leverage they have. And I just think that I think. Putin and Xi are much more low time preference than Americans are.

437
00:29:48,449 --> 00:29:51,889
You know, Americans, they only want to buy assets if they're going up at that moment.

438
00:29:52,109 --> 00:29:56,509
And, you know, they want immediate pushback and they want immediate reaction.

439
00:29:56,689 --> 00:29:59,189
You know, they want it all to be sort of tidied up with a happy ending.

440
00:29:59,189 --> 00:30:03,509
And the guy gets the girl, the kiss from the girl at the end of the the end of the half an hour sitcom.

441
00:30:03,989 --> 00:30:06,849
And Russia and China, I think, are just happy to sit back and go.

442
00:30:08,989 --> 00:30:14,289
Your entire financial system, which is your economy, will blow up without our factories, without our oil.

443
00:30:14,409 --> 00:30:16,089
And we know that. And so we can wait.

444
00:30:16,089 --> 00:30:20,329
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476
00:32:27,389 --> 00:32:33,709
okay so if we like move this on to sort of markets a little bit I read your newsletter last week and

477
00:32:33,709 --> 00:32:37,949
you were saying you know assuming the war continues then markets are going to be down

478
00:32:37,949 --> 00:32:43,069
across the board everything's too high basically um with this change what do you think happens now

479
00:32:43,069 --> 00:32:49,229
do markets shrug this off or is this going to have a longer term effect i think it really depends on

480
00:32:49,229 --> 00:32:56,129
what happens in the next couple days um if iran stops shooting missiles then yeah i think markets

481
00:32:56,129 --> 00:33:02,009
rip if i wake up tomorrow morning and like tel aviv's gotten hit again and trump's going you know

482
00:33:02,009 --> 00:33:07,929
please stop shooting the missiles we've said nicely um i said the war was over everyone should

483
00:33:07,929 --> 00:33:14,589
listen to me i have the best idea about war it's the best war it's the shortest war anyway the

484
00:33:14,589 --> 00:33:29,899
if the iranians keep hitting the israelis and if it especially apparent that they have no intention of letting up and if the straight the stays shut despite Trump saying I opened the straight Hormuz Open sesame

485
00:33:30,159 --> 00:33:30,999
I said it to open.

486
00:33:31,219 --> 00:33:32,119
Why are they not opening?

487
00:33:32,219 --> 00:33:32,879
I don't understand.

488
00:33:35,479 --> 00:33:39,299
If the straight Hormuz does not open up in the next couple days,

489
00:33:39,299 --> 00:33:41,019
then I think you're going to get a relief.

490
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:42,259
You got a relief rally today.

491
00:33:42,399 --> 00:33:43,399
I think it'll fall through tomorrow.

492
00:33:45,019 --> 00:33:49,619
If Iran keeps hitting them and we get towards Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,

493
00:33:49,619 --> 00:33:57,619
and it's like, hey guys, straight over moves is still not flowing. And Trump has said what his

494
00:33:57,619 --> 00:34:01,999
piece, you know, set his piece and it hasn't made a difference. And Iran is pounding on Israel.

495
00:34:02,859 --> 00:34:08,559
Then I think you're going to go, I think you'll go and set new lows in stocks. And I think oil

496
00:34:08,559 --> 00:34:12,979
will go right back over a hundred because at that point people go, oh my gosh, this wasn't,

497
00:34:12,979 --> 00:34:20,359
this wasn't a draw. This was a strategic loss. This was a Suez moment, 1956 for the United States.

498
00:34:20,919 --> 00:34:26,559
And now what? The U.S. has to escalate. Iran's going to escalate. Israel can't really defend

499
00:34:26,559 --> 00:34:32,119
itself. It's sort of in the turtle position on the canvas. What are we doing here? And

500
00:34:32,119 --> 00:34:36,919
so let's see. It's a wishy-washy answer, but that's...

501
00:34:38,919 --> 00:34:39,759
We're in wait and see mode.

502
00:34:39,759 --> 00:34:42,559
I don't know. Yeah. You're in wait and see mode for the next 48 hours, I think.

503
00:34:42,559 --> 00:34:47,959
One of the really interesting things in terms of how markets reacted to this war was Bitcoin.

504
00:34:48,299 --> 00:34:51,039
So I know you've been sort of bearish Bitcoin for the last few months.

505
00:34:51,579 --> 00:34:58,719
But while this happened, you would normally expect Bitcoin to drop off a cliff with some geopolitical tension like this.

506
00:34:58,799 --> 00:34:59,759
But it was pretty strong.

507
00:34:59,879 --> 00:35:03,239
In fact, I think it's even maybe been up across the actual duration of this war.

508
00:35:03,499 --> 00:35:04,679
Did that surprise you?

509
00:35:05,399 --> 00:35:06,819
It did a little bit.

510
00:35:06,819 --> 00:35:14,319
And what I think I was watching, and this is going to be like Schrodinger's Bitcoin commentary, right?

511
00:35:15,859 --> 00:35:17,799
Especially since the war's over.

512
00:35:19,939 --> 00:35:32,159
If you look at the days that Bitcoin was really strong, some of it was like, I noticed a couple things on the days it was very strong over the last two weeks.

513
00:35:32,159 --> 00:35:36,919
one was day it was days that nasdaq was up really strong and software in particular

514
00:35:36,919 --> 00:35:41,639
was up very strong so that's like okay well that's just like dead cat bounce from the

515
00:35:41,639 --> 00:35:48,759
you know from february um and some of that could be okay well you know consumers gonna get killed

516
00:35:48,759 --> 00:35:53,479
with oil going up so software doesn't use any oil quick or software's oversold

517
00:35:53,479 --> 00:36:00,919
maybe uh the other thing i noticed was it was also up on some days where

518
00:36:02,159 --> 00:36:08,039
there were things were getting worse in the Middle East,

519
00:36:08,059 --> 00:36:11,279
but were not necessarily reflected in the stock prices at that moment.

520
00:36:11,359 --> 00:36:13,899
And when I say getting worse based on what I was reading,

521
00:36:14,039 --> 00:36:14,939
based on what I was hearing,

522
00:36:15,659 --> 00:36:21,179
and I think some of that is very possible.

523
00:36:21,179 --> 00:36:25,859
If you're in the UAE and you need to get your money out of UAE as fast as you can,

524
00:36:26,919 --> 00:36:28,539
I buy some Bitcoin.

525
00:36:28,539 --> 00:36:35,139
and that's why i say some of it is schrodinger's schrodinger's asset class through this thing which

526
00:36:35,139 --> 00:36:45,359
is normally bitcoin is fully risk on or at least it has been and in this case it was actually

527
00:36:45,359 --> 00:36:51,699
acting as risk off uh because you know normally i've been saying hey bitcoin is the last functioning

528
00:36:51,699 --> 00:36:56,899
smoke alarm watch what bitcoin does that's what risk assets are going to do um so far it's kind

529
00:36:56,899 --> 00:37:03,759
of holding again, I guess, on one level, but it was from a geopolitical standpoint, Bitcoin

530
00:37:03,759 --> 00:37:07,459
was going up as things were getting worse in the Middle East, as more radars in the

531
00:37:07,459 --> 00:37:12,519
US were getting hit, as more drones, as Hagseth has gone, sorry, we can't really stop any

532
00:37:12,519 --> 00:37:14,659
of these drones as they're coming in.

533
00:37:15,399 --> 00:37:16,599
Bitcoin was getting bid.

534
00:37:16,599 --> 00:37:24,299
So I think there was some element of sort of, it's not oil, it's not going to get killed

535
00:37:24,299 --> 00:37:31,859
by oil software dead cat bounce stuff i think some of it was actually asking acting as risk off

536
00:37:31,859 --> 00:37:40,259
um my working thesis had been up until literally like two hours ago

537
00:37:40,259 --> 00:37:48,619
this you know the war is not going as well as expected and without a taco risk is way too high

538
00:37:48,619 --> 00:38:18,419
We've got our taco. So let's see. It could be good for Bitcoin. It could be bad for Bitcoin. It depends if we go right back to the AI software is dead mode. Well, then Bitcoin's probably going to hit with that in the short run. And if it's risk back on, maybe. Yeah, it's hard to tell. It is very much. But it has been better than expected. And I think that is I think Bitcoiners should be encouraged by that.

539
00:38:18,619 --> 00:38:23,339
I am not feeling like, oh, I need to chase this yet.

540
00:38:25,679 --> 00:38:28,059
But it definitely has done better.

541
00:38:28,399 --> 00:38:30,439
You just said to me, hey, Luke, everything you know today,

542
00:38:30,559 --> 00:38:33,519
you know, two weeks ago, where's Bitcoin?

543
00:38:33,879 --> 00:38:37,599
And I would have said probably 55,000.

544
00:38:38,099 --> 00:38:40,059
And it's at whatever, 68,000.

545
00:38:40,779 --> 00:38:43,659
And so it's definitely better than I would have expected.

546
00:38:44,979 --> 00:38:46,419
Some software bounce.

547
00:38:46,419 --> 00:38:50,019
but I think some of it really is Middle East capital flight,

548
00:38:50,879 --> 00:38:54,299
which I think true Bitcoiners would tell you,

549
00:38:54,359 --> 00:38:56,099
good, that's what it's supposed to frigging do, right?

550
00:38:56,139 --> 00:38:58,279
Like that's how it's supposed to work.

551
00:38:59,359 --> 00:39:01,239
Yeah, I mean, I think as Bitcoiners,

552
00:39:01,279 --> 00:39:03,459
we quite often blame the fact that Bitcoin trades

553
00:39:03,459 --> 00:39:05,899
like a risk asset as sort of information asymmetry.

554
00:39:05,999 --> 00:39:07,799
Like people actually don't understand what this asset is.

555
00:39:07,799 --> 00:39:10,619
So like seeing it trade like this is incredibly promising.

556
00:39:11,559 --> 00:39:13,879
Do you think we could be getting close to the point

557
00:39:13,879 --> 00:39:16,099
where Bitcoin has matured into something different

558
00:39:16,099 --> 00:39:18,839
or do you think that still is way too early to say?

559
00:39:21,899 --> 00:39:24,779
I think it's probably still too early to say,

560
00:39:24,899 --> 00:39:28,099
but it was, I think, really encouraging, right?

561
00:39:28,219 --> 00:39:34,419
That, you know, look, people were paying 350,000 bucks

562
00:39:34,419 --> 00:39:35,839
for a jet ride out of the Middle East

563
00:39:35,839 --> 00:39:39,799
and you got to get your capital out.

564
00:39:40,039 --> 00:39:43,059
Like, let's be blunt.

565
00:39:43,059 --> 00:39:48,499
Hey, how much more if I want to bring, you know, $40 million of gold in me in the luggage?

566
00:39:48,599 --> 00:39:53,459
Like, well, it's going to be another versus, you know, you know, can I take this thumb drive?

567
00:39:53,499 --> 00:39:54,439
Yeah, just put it in your pocket.

568
00:39:54,579 --> 00:39:54,819
Right.

569
00:39:57,419 --> 00:40:00,379
That is sort of everything it's supposed to be.

570
00:40:01,219 --> 00:40:03,359
And and it did it.

571
00:40:03,619 --> 00:40:03,979
So.

572
00:40:06,959 --> 00:40:09,539
Let's see, I think it's still too early.

573
00:40:09,539 --> 00:40:18,159
but I you know again I want to acknowledge what I think we just saw which is I guess

574
00:40:18,159 --> 00:40:23,719
said for Bitcoin is I think very encouraging yeah so when you actually wrote in your letter

575
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,219
that you were going to sort of get rid of some Bitcoin what was your thinking there was that

576
00:40:28,219 --> 00:40:33,059
around the idea of like four-year cycles you thought that it was just going to roll over I

577
00:40:33,059 --> 00:40:37,699
think it was in like the low hundreds that you you maybe first said that and which clearly has

578
00:40:37,699 --> 00:40:41,559
been a great trade i when you first did that i was like luke doesn't know this time's different

579
00:40:41,559 --> 00:40:46,699
who knew someone who's been in the markets for 30 years would know better um but like what were

580
00:40:46,699 --> 00:40:51,339
you looking at when you first started getting rid of some bitcoin yeah it was probably i started

581
00:40:51,339 --> 00:40:58,039
getting nervous probably low hundreds i sold most of it call it 95 96 000 you know call it 23 24

582
00:40:58,039 --> 00:41:07,899
ounces of gold right um what i started watching was that it was it started off just by it's not

583
00:41:07,899 --> 00:41:12,599
acting the way it should right like m2 money supply was like this and bitcoin wasn't reacting

584
00:41:12,599 --> 00:41:22,139
okay that's interesting but then it's you know well bitcoin always goes up by an order of

585
00:41:22,139 --> 00:41:29,559
magnitude peak to peak against gold cycle to cycle except it's not in fact you know i was one

586
00:41:29,559 --> 00:41:33,779
of them where i pointed out i was like bitcoin's unchanged versus gold over five years and that had

587
00:41:33,779 --> 00:41:39,379
never happened over any other five-year period okay and that's kind of one of those things of

588
00:41:39,379 --> 00:41:43,879
like maybe it means something maybe it doesn't right these these as bitcoin matures you're

589
00:41:43,879 --> 00:41:48,039
going to see more of these things never and as bitcoin gets bigger this has never happened or

590
00:41:48,039 --> 00:41:51,399
this always happens those will start breaking down so that was something that broke down

591
00:41:51,399 --> 00:41:58,499
um you know in the same way that like last cycle 2022 right bitcoin has never traded below a prior

592
00:41:58,499 --> 00:42:04,399
cycle huh didn't 2022 didn't mean it was over but also didn't mean it was a great buy at you know

593
00:42:04,399 --> 00:42:10,619
40 you know 40 i mean in hindsight you make the case it it probably was but you understand what

594
00:42:10,619 --> 00:42:21,199
i'm saying uh there were better buys to come um and then what i was seeing in sort of the bond

595
00:42:21,199 --> 00:42:26,279
markets, right? When I was seeing what in the Japanese bond market, it yields up, yen down,

596
00:42:26,439 --> 00:42:32,699
that's emerging market behavior. And that is in the JGB market, which is just, there's no way you

597
00:42:32,699 --> 00:42:37,499
can look at that as a market participant and go, oh, this is going to end up good for Bitcoin.

598
00:42:37,499 --> 00:42:42,959
Like that, that's, it's a, it's a horror show for risk assets. And so you just kind of go,

599
00:42:42,959 --> 00:42:52,399
And then you see the way it's trading. And then, you know, there were legitimate concerns.

600
00:42:52,679 --> 00:43:03,959
Well, then there were within all of this, right, you were seeing a whole bunch of, you know, OG whales or whatever, just sort of these big long term holders selling.

601
00:43:04,959 --> 00:43:12,039
And it was holding up, right? Now, that was initially my reaction was, wow, these big guys are selling and it's not breaking like it used to.

602
00:43:12,039 --> 00:43:13,139
That's really encouraging.

603
00:43:13,299 --> 00:43:14,599
That was my initial read.

604
00:43:15,379 --> 00:43:16,179
And then it starts breaking.

605
00:43:16,299 --> 00:43:17,279
Yeah, selling $9 billion of coins.

606
00:43:17,419 --> 00:43:17,659
Right.

607
00:43:17,759 --> 00:43:18,259
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

608
00:43:18,259 --> 00:43:18,439
Right.

609
00:43:18,579 --> 00:43:20,459
And then it started breaking down.

610
00:43:21,099 --> 00:43:41,979
Then you started having like a whole slew of who I would say are pro-Bitcoin people raising what to me as a tourist seeming to be relatively valid concerns around quantum and some of those types of things.

611
00:43:41,979 --> 00:43:48,559
which again, I was not like, oh, this is an eminent. And like the markets are smarter than

612
00:43:48,559 --> 00:43:53,559
all of us. And I'm watching Bitcoin trade as all of these things are happening. And the final straw

613
00:43:53,559 --> 00:43:59,119
was just, and I wrote this and highlighted for clients before I ever sold. And it was just

614
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:05,659
two different momentum indicators on a monthly momentum charts. I don't pay a lot of attention

615
00:44:05,659 --> 00:44:11,179
to technicals in the short term because I'm not a trader, but big sort of capital flow,

616
00:44:11,179 --> 00:44:18,239
monthly sort of technical moves i have been doing this 30 years and when i see them i have

617
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:23,579
gotten my head kicked in enough to just not grow a brain and just respect them and i think i

618
00:44:23,579 --> 00:44:28,379
said something that effect like i've been doing this long enough when when a technical indicator

619
00:44:28,379 --> 00:44:33,779
breaks down you know if they just kind of you know in for a smooth landing and cross that's like

620
00:44:33,779 --> 00:44:41,099
when they go through like a hot knife through butter that is like gtfo like game over

621
00:44:41,099 --> 00:44:49,279
see you later and is it quantum is it is it japan is it war is it i don't care doesn't matter get me

622
00:44:49,279 --> 00:44:55,199
out and i think the last part was just the context of understanding like and i i think i might have

623
00:44:55,199 --> 00:45:01,359
even said this to you before but i i've been doing this 30 years and bitcoiners have been doing

624
00:45:01,359 --> 00:45:04,879
bitcoin for three years and know way more than me about the technology and what have you whenever

625
00:45:04,879 --> 00:45:10,519
uh but doing this 30 years and advising when i say doing this advising institutional investors

626
00:45:10,519 --> 00:45:17,779
consulting with institutional investors for 30 years with the marginal bid, so much of the marginal

627
00:45:17,779 --> 00:45:22,579
bid for Bitcoin coming from institutions over the last however many years and celebrated rightfully

628
00:45:22,579 --> 00:45:27,899
so by Bitcoiners. I also knew that chart, there's like going to be no institutional interest in that

629
00:45:27,899 --> 00:45:33,239
chart for some time. Everyone and their mothers is going to go, I'll wait, I'll let it come to me.

630
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:50,279
And that's kind of what they did. And so that was, it was not so much one thing. It was a whole lot of things. In the context of me, like, look, Bitcoin was a frigging enormous position for me personally. It was, it was, you know, irresponsibly large.

631
00:45:50,279 --> 00:45:56,959
right and so you know having a three to five percent position in something and have it with

632
00:45:56,959 --> 00:46:04,759
that chart is a completely different animal than where i was um in terms of positioning so i i just

633
00:46:04,759 --> 00:46:12,239
you know i wanted to get uh i wanted to degross significantly and i did yeah on the quantum side

634
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:17,719
i like i'm no quantum expert but from people i've spoken to i think that's mainly a narrative issue

635
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,199
rather than anything real right now.

636
00:46:19,299 --> 00:46:21,159
Like, I think quantum is still a long way off.

637
00:46:21,199 --> 00:46:22,279
And if something does happen,

638
00:46:22,359 --> 00:46:24,679
there's people working on ways that we can change Bitcoin

639
00:46:24,679 --> 00:46:25,819
to make it quantum resistant.

640
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,559
But like to make this trade now a genius trade,

641
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:31,399
you obviously-

642
00:46:31,399 --> 00:46:32,459
I got to buy back, huh?

643
00:46:33,159 --> 00:46:34,039
You got to buy back.

644
00:46:34,099 --> 00:46:36,699
Assuming your long-term thesis on Bitcoin hasn't changed.

645
00:46:36,799 --> 00:46:37,119
No, it hasn't.

646
00:46:37,639 --> 00:46:38,799
When do you?

647
00:46:38,979 --> 00:46:40,239
Like, what do you need to see

648
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:41,679
before you start looking at this again?

649
00:46:42,499 --> 00:46:46,239
I need to see more-

650
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:58,559
aggressive um nuclear printing if you will um is you know it's we literally have completely put

651
00:46:58,559 --> 00:47:02,799
on the back burner this whole ai thing for the last two weeks and i think you know if this around

652
00:47:02,799 --> 00:47:09,679
wars over which is sort of like they've managed to paper over ai concerns like friday after friday

653
00:47:09,679 --> 00:47:13,379
here in the US, we had 92,000 jobs lost.

654
00:47:16,799 --> 00:47:22,539
And you're seeing job openings in sort of every sector

655
00:47:22,539 --> 00:47:26,419
where you'd expect AI to curtail job openings.

656
00:47:26,579 --> 00:47:28,959
You're seeing job openings in free fall in finance.

657
00:47:29,059 --> 00:47:30,359
You're seeing them fall in tech.

658
00:47:30,439 --> 00:47:32,859
You are seeing them drop in services.

659
00:47:33,459 --> 00:47:36,219
And I just keep hearing more and more

660
00:47:36,219 --> 00:47:39,079
and seeing more and more signs in that world

661
00:47:39,079 --> 00:47:42,819
that this is accelerated at an exponential rate.

662
00:47:44,639 --> 00:47:50,059
And if that's the case, then our debt-based system,

663
00:47:50,499 --> 00:47:56,059
consumer credit is going to be a giant smoking crater because of AI.

664
00:47:56,619 --> 00:47:59,439
And we can debate if that's in three months or if that's in six months

665
00:47:59,439 --> 00:48:02,479
or if that's in 18 months, but from what I can tell,

666
00:48:02,519 --> 00:48:04,119
I don't think it's a debate that it's coming.

667
00:48:05,919 --> 00:48:08,159
And we're seeing cracks in private credit.

668
00:48:08,159 --> 00:48:10,039
I think there's gonna be a lot worse

669
00:48:10,039 --> 00:48:12,279
and so my point is

670
00:48:12,279 --> 00:48:14,279
and then we still have the situation

671
00:48:14,279 --> 00:48:14,799
that Japan

672
00:48:14,799 --> 00:48:17,939
trading like an emerging market

673
00:48:17,939 --> 00:48:19,979
where yields are going up and the currency

674
00:48:19,979 --> 00:48:20,819
is going down

675
00:48:20,819 --> 00:48:24,319
so even if we get a resolution

676
00:48:24,319 --> 00:48:25,539
on Iran

677
00:48:25,539 --> 00:48:27,279
and geopolitics

678
00:48:27,279 --> 00:48:28,559
I still am

679
00:48:28,559 --> 00:48:33,099
I still don't like the risk

680
00:48:33,099 --> 00:48:35,099
I still think we need

681
00:48:35,099 --> 00:48:36,419
very aggressive

682
00:48:36,419 --> 00:48:37,299
I still

683
00:48:38,159 --> 00:48:46,539
I still think anything less than probably like negative interest rates is negative for risk, is tightening financial conditions.

684
00:48:47,399 --> 00:48:54,819
And so at the very least, I don't think that's a world where I'm going to wake up in a month and Bitcoin is going to be at $120,000.

685
00:48:54,939 --> 00:48:57,339
I'm going to go, oh, God, now I got to buy it back and what have you.

686
00:48:57,739 --> 00:48:59,139
I could be totally wrong.

687
00:48:59,879 --> 00:49:01,399
And if that happens, that's OK.

688
00:49:01,399 --> 00:49:05,839
You know, some of that I would expect gold would probably go up with that and ease some of that pain.

689
00:49:05,839 --> 00:49:16,119
um but that's that to me i still feel like we're in a risk-off world um there's a lot of really big

690
00:49:16,119 --> 00:49:22,559
issues that have to be resolved and when you've got a lot of debt you don't have a lot of maneuvering

691
00:49:22,559 --> 00:49:28,099
room to resolve those things it's interesting that you bring up the private credit stuff i was

692
00:49:28,099 --> 00:49:31,399
doing a show with jeff snyder last week and he talked all about this and the issues that are

693
00:49:31,399 --> 00:49:35,699
happening in the private credit markets. And he was saying, like, while he's not sure,

694
00:49:35,839 --> 00:49:39,299
there's potential that this leads into another financial crisis type situation.

695
00:49:39,939 --> 00:49:42,739
Do you think we could see another 2007 come out of this?

696
00:49:44,319 --> 00:49:50,699
I don't know. I have not. There are things that remind me of the early days of it, right? Like

697
00:49:50,699 --> 00:49:56,719
the last week with the three months ago, some BlackRock fund, you know, credit was marked at

698
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,879
100. And then, you know, three months later, it's marked at zero. You know, it's like the

699
00:49:59,879 --> 00:50:01,799
the South Park chicken meme, right?

700
00:50:01,799 --> 00:50:12,488
And it gone Right And and the one he was bringing up was Blue Owl I think Yeah Blue Owl I had not you know we written a little bit about that It not you know I don cover the company or anything but

701
00:50:15,528 --> 00:50:21,088
People that I respect have said there's some real issues with credit quality.

702
00:50:23,848 --> 00:50:24,628
And again.

703
00:50:24,628 --> 00:50:40,828
And I think if you take a step, to me, I think it's a symptom of a broader issue of the pace of AI disruption of productivity growth is too fast.

704
00:50:41,768 --> 00:50:48,368
We talked about this down in Nashville last fall where it's moving too fast.

705
00:50:48,788 --> 00:50:50,988
And you're seeing this in youth unemployment.

706
00:50:51,248 --> 00:50:53,788
You're seeing this in credit delinquencies.

707
00:50:53,788 --> 00:50:56,928
you're starting to see unemployment move up a little bit off the lows

708
00:50:56,928 --> 00:50:59,628
so could it be 2007?

709
00:51:02,348 --> 00:51:04,388
maybe but to me it's a

710
00:51:04,388 --> 00:51:09,028
the reason why I'm so concerned why I still am sort of okay

711
00:51:09,028 --> 00:51:12,128
holding off on getting fully back to a really

712
00:51:12,128 --> 00:51:16,008
overweight Bitcoin position is unlike 07

713
00:51:16,008 --> 00:51:18,548
debt to GDP in 07 at the federal level was

714
00:51:18,548 --> 00:51:21,988
60% right? We still had all that balance sheet room

715
00:51:21,988 --> 00:51:30,128
The deficit was, I don't know, 1.5%, 2%, maybe 2.5%, even with a war going on.

716
00:51:30,888 --> 00:51:32,208
Maybe it was 3%.

717
00:51:32,208 --> 00:51:47,388
But now, if you have credit issues, and I think you're going to have consumer credit issues, simply because of the AI side.

718
00:51:47,388 --> 00:52:05,228
It is just, it is, you know, as we talked about in the fall, like this, just to me, it reminds me so much of what China did to the Rust Belt, except, you know, the Rust Belt, you know, the loss of 35% of manufacturing jobs was ultimately the pace of that was governed by the speed at which the Chinese could build factories.

719
00:52:05,228 --> 00:52:08,028
And as fast as they were, that was still, it took years and years.

720
00:52:08,028 --> 00:52:11,708
Like, this is going to go really fast.

721
00:52:11,948 --> 00:52:17,148
You know, it's, it moves, you know, connect up a couple of computers, boom, gone.

722
00:52:17,148 --> 00:52:22,708
right so then people say well it's still it's still you know has hallucinations and and and

723
00:52:22,708 --> 00:52:27,368
and of course right and that's the exact same you know basically the exact same thing i heard from

724
00:52:27,368 --> 00:52:31,008
union guys here in the rust belt right well the chinese they're you know they just do low quality

725
00:52:31,008 --> 00:52:34,628
stuff they're just cheap and it's like well their quality is good but they're still just cheap they're

726
00:52:34,628 --> 00:52:38,508
not going to move up scale well their quality is still really good they're really cheap and they're

727
00:52:38,508 --> 00:52:45,948
moving up scale well my job's gone and right so like you know we can debate is the ai hallucinatory

728
00:52:45,948 --> 00:53:03,468
We can debate how quickly. We can't debate that it's going to keep getting better faster than you think it is. And so we can debate, hey, is this a three-month-away problem? Is this a six, nine, 12, 18-month-away problem? It's probably not a two-year-away problem.

729
00:53:03,468 --> 00:53:07,848
And again, look in 2008, this is February of 08.

730
00:53:08,268 --> 00:53:14,888
So we've already had, right, we've got 2005 home price, you know,

731
00:53:15,468 --> 00:53:20,088
Greenspan raises rates in 04, summer of 04, summer of 05 home prices peak,

732
00:53:20,168 --> 00:53:26,288
start to roll over, fall of 06, subprime losses start piling up at that point.

733
00:53:26,388 --> 00:53:29,208
Oh, the worst case is like $60, $80 billion in losses.

734
00:53:30,588 --> 00:53:32,228
Maybe 100 worst case.

735
00:53:32,228 --> 00:53:34,568
That was like a huge shocker late in 06.

736
00:53:34,628 --> 00:53:36,208
I remember that if I remember right.

737
00:53:36,748 --> 00:53:40,588
May of 07, Bernanke says subprime is contained in essence.

738
00:53:41,408 --> 00:53:45,668
July of 07, you know, poof, 3 billion in mortgage funds gone.

739
00:53:45,908 --> 00:53:46,328
Wait, what?

740
00:53:47,028 --> 00:53:49,128
Even then, the S&P set a record in October.

741
00:53:51,648 --> 00:53:52,688
February of 08.

742
00:53:53,328 --> 00:53:57,648
So after all of that, right before Bear Stearns goes boom in March of 08,

743
00:53:59,828 --> 00:54:01,348
gets bailed out for two bucks.

744
00:54:01,348 --> 00:54:15,668
In February of 2008, New York Times reports that the mortgage delinquency rate, mortgage delinquency and homes in foreclosure is across all homes in America is 7.3%.

745
00:54:15,668 --> 00:54:20,508
92.7% of mortgages in America were current.

746
00:54:20,508 --> 00:54:23,268
A month later, Bear Stearns.

747
00:54:24,188 --> 00:54:29,248
Over the summer, Fannie Freddie, Bazooka, Lehman.

748
00:54:30,528 --> 00:54:38,928
Literally seven months later, eight months later, we were that close to the entire financial system collapsing with 92.7% of mortgages current.

749
00:54:40,628 --> 00:54:45,448
So the whole debate around this AI, AI is not going to take all the white collar jobs.

750
00:54:45,448 --> 00:54:46,828
Like, you're right.

751
00:54:47,848 --> 00:54:48,368
Not.

752
00:54:48,368 --> 00:54:53,088
it's going to take a few of them and those people are going to pay their mortgages and their car

753
00:54:53,088 --> 00:54:56,548
loans and credit card bills and then those things are going to blow up something in private credit

754
00:54:56,548 --> 00:54:59,928
and private credit's going to have an issue and then the banks are going to pull back on lending

755
00:54:59,928 --> 00:55:06,968
and so to me i don't know the whole private credit thing and how levered they are where

756
00:55:06,968 --> 00:55:14,388
they're connected um i know the whole system's highly levered and i know that we are as a as a

757
00:55:14,388 --> 00:55:19,688
government as a federal government with receipts at all time highs we are barely covering entitlements

758
00:55:19,688 --> 00:55:25,508
plus interest expense and any kind of recession will force us into default on the treasuries or

759
00:55:25,508 --> 00:55:33,088
entitlements or print the money and they'll print the money so um that to me is like the

760
00:55:33,088 --> 00:55:41,368
i don't know how i don't know how they're going to get there but i'm like i'm pretty sure you know

761
00:55:41,368 --> 00:55:46,328
to me, the only debate is, is like how fast, you know, it's, it's, you know, in golf, right.

762
00:55:46,368 --> 00:55:50,688
They don't ask you, right. They don't ask in golf. They don't ask you how they just ask you how

763
00:55:50,688 --> 00:55:56,688
many, um, you know, you know, in a, how fast, you know, in, in, in AI disruption of the economy

764
00:55:56,688 --> 00:56:01,588
and will it create a deflationary, like sort of a credit crisis for me, it's not, you know,

765
00:56:01,588 --> 00:56:06,428
how it's just how many months. See the, I I've not heard that. I've not thought about it that way,

766
00:56:06,428 --> 00:56:09,748
where you talk about the Rust Belt and China taking those jobs.

767
00:56:10,208 --> 00:56:12,488
And in reality, it doesn't matter who's taking the jobs,

768
00:56:12,628 --> 00:56:14,588
just someone's taking the jobs and they're not yours anymore.

769
00:56:14,868 --> 00:56:17,448
And we've seen what happened in the Rust Belt.

770
00:56:17,808 --> 00:56:21,268
And there was a massive growth in the opioid epidemic

771
00:56:21,268 --> 00:56:23,288
and alcoholism and people dying.

772
00:56:23,588 --> 00:56:26,448
And it was very isolated from the coasts,

773
00:56:26,448 --> 00:56:28,268
but this is not going to be.

774
00:56:28,408 --> 00:56:29,728
This is going to be entirely different.

775
00:56:30,268 --> 00:56:33,668
And it's really scary.

776
00:56:33,668 --> 00:56:35,128
Why do things just...

777
00:56:35,128 --> 00:56:36,368
I don't know if this is doomerism,

778
00:56:36,428 --> 00:56:38,128
but things just seem to get worse, Luke.

779
00:56:39,328 --> 00:56:42,988
You know, it's, I don't know.

780
00:56:43,628 --> 00:56:46,968
It's a fascinating study in the American psyche, I think,

781
00:56:47,048 --> 00:56:49,368
that it's just like, you know,

782
00:56:49,388 --> 00:56:50,928
versus say like the Russian psyche, right?

783
00:56:50,928 --> 00:56:52,548
Like you read a Russian novel and you're like,

784
00:56:52,628 --> 00:56:55,888
oh my God, it is like one bad thing after another.

785
00:56:56,568 --> 00:56:58,128
And then you like look at Russian history,

786
00:56:58,128 --> 00:57:00,588
you're like, well, that checks out, right?

787
00:57:00,668 --> 00:57:01,648
Whereas in America, right?

788
00:57:01,688 --> 00:57:04,488
It's like American movies, they all have the same plot, right?

789
00:57:04,488 --> 00:57:06,688
which is like, ah, something happens,

790
00:57:06,868 --> 00:57:09,188
and ah, redemption gets the girl, happy ending.

791
00:57:09,348 --> 00:57:10,908
That's like all American movies.

792
00:57:14,748 --> 00:57:17,008
You talk to someone in the Rust Belt in America,

793
00:57:17,248 --> 00:57:18,408
like, it's not all happy movie.

794
00:57:18,568 --> 00:57:20,588
Like, we've been to any number of funerals

795
00:57:20,588 --> 00:57:23,008
for kids that overdosed, parents that overdosed,

796
00:57:23,548 --> 00:57:25,708
suicides, what have you.

797
00:57:25,788 --> 00:57:27,188
We saw these jobs lost.

798
00:57:27,568 --> 00:57:29,868
You know, 1965, Cleveland was like

799
00:57:29,868 --> 00:57:31,348
the fifth richest city in America.

800
00:57:32,348 --> 00:57:34,048
You know, by 1980, the river,

801
00:57:34,048 --> 00:57:36,368
or 1975, the river was on fire, right?

802
00:57:36,408 --> 00:57:37,968
So like it happens fast.

803
00:57:37,968 --> 00:57:43,748
And, but it's fascinating, right?

804
00:57:43,788 --> 00:57:44,908
The psyche of America of like,

805
00:57:44,928 --> 00:57:46,848
hey, we always get a happy ending.

806
00:57:46,948 --> 00:57:48,148
People are like, you never short America.

807
00:57:50,068 --> 00:57:52,388
You never short America over the span of your lifetime.

808
00:57:52,928 --> 00:57:56,768
You shorted America in November 23rd, 1963,

809
00:57:57,328 --> 00:57:59,348
the day after they shot JFK

810
00:57:59,348 --> 00:58:02,068
and you covered your short in 1980.

811
00:58:02,648 --> 00:58:03,988
It's a pretty good time to short America.

812
00:58:04,048 --> 00:58:12,088
If you shorted America in October 1929, you covered your short like 1933, 1935, pretty good short.

813
00:58:12,708 --> 00:58:18,128
There's periods of times where stuff happens, and in different parts of the country.

814
00:58:18,368 --> 00:58:25,948
If you shorted the American farm belt right before the Dust Bowl, horribly, that was a great short.

815
00:58:26,208 --> 00:58:27,128
It was a disaster.

816
00:58:27,128 --> 00:58:33,928
and when you have these

817
00:58:33,928 --> 00:58:35,548
losses of

818
00:58:35,548 --> 00:58:36,668
meaning

819
00:58:36,668 --> 00:58:40,028
right, Plains Native Americans

820
00:58:40,028 --> 00:58:41,908
in this country, they lost their meaning, they were put on

821
00:58:41,908 --> 00:58:43,908
reservations, they drank themselves to death as they lost

822
00:58:43,908 --> 00:58:45,848
their meaning, even though it was a better

823
00:58:45,848 --> 00:58:47,748
way of life, they lost their meaning

824
00:58:47,748 --> 00:58:51,588
you take a bunch of Soviet

825
00:58:51,588 --> 00:58:53,968
apparatchiks, and under the Soviets things were not great

826
00:58:53,968 --> 00:58:55,908
especially in the 70s and 80s, they were not

827
00:58:55,908 --> 00:59:04,348
great at all they got a better way of life and they drank and shot themselves to death at

828
00:59:04,348 --> 00:59:07,248
staggering rates through the 90s because they lost their meaning

829
00:59:07,248 --> 00:59:16,188
2000s i lived through it ruspa you take people's meaning away they drink and shoot themselves to

830
00:59:16,188 --> 00:59:24,068
death at staggering rates and so there's like this you know a lot of the people that are in

831
00:59:24,068 --> 00:59:30,868
sort of in charge of the ai renaissance are for lack of a better word autists right they are

832
00:59:30,868 --> 00:59:39,748
brilliant people whose eq is probably not really high um like oh it's just all gonna be great we're

833
00:59:39,748 --> 00:59:43,708
never gonna have to work again elon's like well we're just gonna have everything's gonna be like

834
00:59:43,708 --> 00:59:52,468
free and you're like how about between here and there dude like you know um and he doesn't have

835
00:59:52,468 --> 00:59:56,588
to think about those things i was worth whatever 100 trillion dollars i wouldn't either um

836
00:59:56,588 --> 01:00:03,788
but the rest of us do and that's like the reality and and forget about the social side of it

837
01:00:03,788 --> 01:00:08,368
for a moment the credit side of it every single person

838
01:00:08,368 --> 01:00:16,488
that loses their job or loses wages to an ai none of these people are living debt-free like

839
01:00:16,488 --> 01:00:26,008
there are so few people living debt-free um so i just to me that's like a major major story around

840
01:00:26,008 --> 01:00:31,468
you know i think ultimately rates will be much lower they could be negative i don't know how

841
01:00:31,468 --> 01:00:35,328
the you know universal basic income job guarantee there's a lot of different ways you can try to

842
01:00:35,328 --> 01:00:46,388
handle this um but we're not at the level of sort of uh panic that i would like to where i'm like

843
01:00:46,388 --> 01:00:55,228
okay let's go i want to own everything i you know i'm much more rifle shot approach uh you know and

844
01:00:55,228 --> 01:01:00,408
i'm in a very cautious position right now yeah the the crazy thing there about like shorting america

845
01:01:00,408 --> 01:01:04,468
is i can see the sort of fabric of society breakdown that you're you're painting here like

846
01:01:04,468 --> 01:01:09,348
the loss of meaning is is incredibly impactful but at the same time it will probably be american

847
01:01:09,348 --> 01:01:15,368
companies that benefit the most so it's just like even greater wealth divide and i think ubi seems

848
01:01:15,368 --> 01:01:18,428
just an obvious solution to this that I think will be tried.

849
01:01:18,608 --> 01:01:19,548
Who knows if it'll work?

850
01:01:19,648 --> 01:01:22,268
But at the end of the day, it seems to all lead back to

851
01:01:22,268 --> 01:01:24,228
someone's going to press the money printing button.

852
01:01:25,568 --> 01:01:26,528
I think so.

853
01:01:26,748 --> 01:01:30,868
So how long do you think we have until this snowball gets out of control

854
01:01:30,868 --> 01:01:33,608
and someone does have to do a turbo print?

855
01:01:36,468 --> 01:01:38,868
I don't know, probably only three to six months,

856
01:01:39,108 --> 01:01:41,328
depending on AI.

857
01:01:41,328 --> 01:01:44,588
I mean, remember where we're like literally like two weeks ago

858
01:01:44,588 --> 01:01:51,088
before the whole Iran thing where it was like, you know,

859
01:01:51,088 --> 01:01:54,728
we literally had just gotten where, you know, you know,

860
01:01:54,728 --> 01:01:56,628
Jack had fired 40% of his workers, right?

861
01:01:56,648 --> 01:02:01,088
And it was like, holy cow, you know, and sort of all of the, you know,

862
01:02:01,168 --> 01:02:03,508
you know, Kevin Bacon's, you know, you know,

863
01:02:03,988 --> 01:02:06,868
everything is under control or what does he say in Animal House, right?

864
01:02:06,908 --> 01:02:07,888
Remain calm, right?

865
01:02:08,468 --> 01:02:11,528
The people, those people in markets, they're like, well, Jack, you know,

866
01:02:12,388 --> 01:02:14,368
he has way too many people anyway.

867
01:02:14,588 --> 01:02:16,928
and he had way too many people at X

868
01:02:16,928 --> 01:02:18,928
and they got rid of all those people

869
01:02:18,928 --> 01:02:20,548
and it didn't affect X's thing at all.

870
01:02:20,588 --> 01:02:20,888
I'm like,

871
01:02:21,468 --> 01:02:25,168
you're missing the entire point, dude.

872
01:02:25,508 --> 01:02:25,928
Yes.

873
01:02:26,148 --> 01:02:27,808
Okay, let's say you're 100% right.

874
01:02:28,488 --> 01:02:29,888
And let's say they do that.

875
01:02:30,008 --> 01:02:31,488
Let's say there's lots of organizations.

876
01:02:31,688 --> 01:02:33,728
I had dinner last fall

877
01:02:33,728 --> 01:02:35,368
with a corporate exec

878
01:02:35,368 --> 01:02:37,008
fairly high up.

879
01:02:37,068 --> 01:02:38,008
He's like, yeah, corporate.

880
01:02:39,708 --> 01:02:41,628
60% of corporate is just showing up.

881
01:02:41,708 --> 01:02:43,228
And I'm like...

882
01:02:43,228 --> 01:02:44,528
That's insane.

883
01:02:44,588 --> 01:02:50,088
right so you go in big corporations you showed up do your job go home okay great

884
01:02:50,088 --> 01:02:57,208
how many of those just show up do your job like and again 92.7 only 7.3 percent of mortgages

885
01:02:57,208 --> 01:03:04,448
going into delinquency or default kaboom whole system so 60 is showing up and just like

886
01:03:04,448 --> 01:03:11,068
what percent of that's ai gonna take like morgan stanley just blew out three percent of the workers

887
01:03:11,068 --> 01:03:13,508
with record profits, by the way.

888
01:03:14,248 --> 01:03:17,768
And they didn't say anything about AI in the release,

889
01:03:17,788 --> 01:03:19,408
but then New York Post over the weekend's like,

890
01:03:20,148 --> 01:03:22,048
that execs are quietly saying it's AI related,

891
01:03:22,328 --> 01:03:23,448
that they're just getting more efficient.

892
01:03:25,208 --> 01:03:25,648
3%.

893
01:03:25,648 --> 01:03:25,828
Boom.

894
01:03:27,248 --> 01:03:27,968
3%.

895
01:03:27,968 --> 01:03:28,168
Boom.

896
01:03:28,568 --> 01:03:30,348
And we're not a manufacturer.

897
01:03:30,468 --> 01:03:32,668
People are like, well, they're just all going to go to construction

898
01:03:32,668 --> 01:03:34,188
and trades and all this.

899
01:03:34,188 --> 01:03:36,308
You're like, come on.

900
01:03:37,268 --> 01:03:38,788
You know, I've seen that movie.

901
01:03:38,948 --> 01:03:40,788
Like, you don't teach old dogs new trick.

902
01:03:40,788 --> 01:03:41,448
I'm an old dog.

903
01:03:41,968 --> 01:03:44,028
You know, 50-year-olds don't go, like, leave banking.

904
01:03:44,248 --> 01:03:46,588
Well, I was a commercial lender, and I had a golf membership.

905
01:03:46,788 --> 01:03:49,728
I was down every day to four on the course by five.

906
01:03:50,028 --> 01:03:51,348
And now I'm out of a job.

907
01:03:51,408 --> 01:03:51,948
I got a mortgage.

908
01:03:52,048 --> 01:03:53,128
I got two kids in college.

909
01:03:53,128 --> 01:03:57,028
I got a $2,000 a month lease on my Mercedes or my Range Rover.

910
01:03:57,228 --> 01:03:59,268
And now I got to go learn how to trade?

911
01:03:59,428 --> 01:03:59,928
Come on.

912
01:03:59,968 --> 01:04:00,888
These people are high.

913
01:04:00,988 --> 01:04:02,308
This is not how that's going to go.

914
01:04:02,588 --> 01:04:05,148
Maybe on the margin, but for most of them, no.

915
01:04:05,148 --> 01:04:16,228
So I think it's going to happen faster than people think.

916
01:04:16,348 --> 01:04:16,848
I really do.

917
01:04:16,908 --> 01:04:19,208
And I think, look, the jobs number down 92,000.

918
01:04:19,848 --> 01:04:24,308
Everything is star-spangled awesome, and we're losing 92,000 jobs.

919
01:04:24,388 --> 01:04:25,448
I think it's a big deal.

920
01:04:25,908 --> 01:04:27,708
And it was fascinating because of the Iran war.

921
01:04:27,788 --> 01:04:28,568
No one said a thing.

922
01:04:28,848 --> 01:04:33,808
If there was no war and we printed that jobs number, holy cow.

923
01:04:33,808 --> 01:04:40,308
nobody even noticed it was like wag the dog i guess the the positive notes close out on is that

924
01:04:40,308 --> 01:04:45,968
for people for the people that do harness ai and use it in like an interesting and meaningful and

925
01:04:45,968 --> 01:04:50,688
and maybe novel way there's going to be massive opportunity there'll be a billion dollar company

926
01:04:50,688 --> 01:04:58,348
run by one person at some point um so there is there is hope out there oh yeah right like that's

927
01:04:58,348 --> 01:05:02,408
you know it's it's you know i think we even talked about this last time in nashore like like there's

928
01:05:02,408 --> 01:05:06,668
there's a couple eighth graders in a garage happening like right now and there's they're

929
01:05:06,668 --> 01:05:11,248
going to put some like 10 billion dollar u.s company out of business yeah and you know we

930
01:05:11,248 --> 01:05:16,948
we literally said that in october this is right mid-october when we were together

931
01:05:16,948 --> 01:05:24,688
and in february software as a service is like yep right which is essentially happening

932
01:05:24,688 --> 01:05:31,608
a couple of eighth graders in a garage can now vibe code like that was the fear right and and

933
01:05:31,608 --> 01:05:32,828
And AI is only going to get better.

934
01:05:33,068 --> 01:05:35,428
So there's going to be a lot more of those.

935
01:05:35,528 --> 01:05:38,228
And that's like super exciting and super scary, right?

936
01:05:39,428 --> 01:05:43,848
It's like, you know, you've got to be on your game.

937
01:05:44,028 --> 01:05:48,588
Like you can get disintermediated in some of these traditional white collar positions

938
01:05:48,588 --> 01:05:50,948
and you can be a disintermediator.

939
01:05:51,088 --> 01:05:53,148
And so like, okay, here we go.

940
01:05:53,708 --> 01:05:54,308
Disruption everywhere.

941
01:05:54,428 --> 01:05:56,268
Disruption is the theme of this show, I think.

942
01:05:57,028 --> 01:05:58,608
Luke, this has been awesome.

943
01:05:58,928 --> 01:06:00,568
Thank you very much for making the time.

944
01:06:00,688 --> 01:06:01,468
I will let you go.

945
01:06:01,468 --> 01:06:04,908
But before we do, tell everyone where they can get your newsletter and follow you.

946
01:06:05,348 --> 01:06:06,268
I'm sure everyone knows.

947
01:06:07,608 --> 01:06:08,488
No, thank you.

948
01:06:08,548 --> 01:06:09,208
I appreciate it.

949
01:06:10,088 --> 01:06:20,968
If they're interested in more information about our different mass market and institutional research products at FFTT-LLC.com and Twitter or X.

950
01:06:21,148 --> 01:06:21,888
Sorry, Elon.

951
01:06:22,288 --> 01:06:25,008
At Luke Groman, L-U-K-E-G-R-O-M-E-N.

952
01:06:25,048 --> 01:06:26,568
I still can't get you saying X either.

953
01:06:26,948 --> 01:06:28,188
Luke, thank you so much, man.

954
01:06:28,208 --> 01:06:28,908
I appreciate it.

955
01:06:30,088 --> 01:06:30,888
Thanks for having me on, buddy.

956
01:06:30,888 --> 01:06:31,448
We'll talk to you soon.

957
01:06:31,468 --> 01:06:31,968
Thank you.