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If you have assets that you like to possess yourself, you should have Bitcoin because like

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it is money that they can't take from you. It is money that you can send anywhere in the world at

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any time. Really what's likely to happen, there will be an AI that's too powerful to be public.

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And if China is going to give it to their people and we're not going to give it to ours,

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of course that disadvantages us. And I bet you would see the US force China to close theirs off

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too. So much debt being issued to pay for all the data centers, not just here, but worldwide.

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I think you're going to see substantial, like the fiscal impulse is going to become substantial.

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You're going to hear about like the debasement story is going to come back.

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Like, and all of a sudden you're going to look at Bitcoin.

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It's going to be at like 90K and everyone's going to be like,

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oh no, I need Bitcoin because of the storm.

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And all of a sudden it's just everybody remembers why they liked Bitcoin in the first place.

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And then like, bam, it's no longer in like a bear market.

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It's sort of just like chugging along.

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If I had to ask you, would the Bitcoin price be higher if Saylor had never bought Bitcoin?

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What do you think the answer would be?

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How's it going, man?

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I'm really good, man.

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Good to see you in New York.

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Good to see you.

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I got in 23 hours late, but I'm here.

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I can't believe it.

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I was shocked.

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Well, was there like a-

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23-hour flight delay.

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Was there a-

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I saw there was a hurricane in New Jersey yesterday.

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Oh, yeah.

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I guess there was yesterday.

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I only caught a glimpse of it from the office,

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but I guess there was a tornado warning.

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There was like a thunderstorm that rolled through.

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To be fair, I'd rather not be in a plane in a hurricane.

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That's true.

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What's going on?

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I mean, it's all like AI and Clarity Act.

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And just right now in the summer doldrums market that we're in.

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Summer doldrums.

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Bottom of the bear market.

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We're begging folks in Washington to bust their butts on our behalf.

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And it's like a 97 degree swamp down there.

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And we're like, please get it done in the last minute.

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So I would say it's been an exciting summer, even though the market has been quite boring,

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I would say overall.

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I think it's true in both equity.

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I don't know.

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Maybe boring is not the right word,

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but it's not a particularly bullish moment

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we find ourselves in for Bitcoin

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or for equities, really.

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It's like ebbs and flows.

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It's always exciting.

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It's the never-ending saga.

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So I spend no time in the data,

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but all I have is vibes.

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And when you've been in Bitcoin a bit,

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vibes kind of work.

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Oh, yeah.

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And I do feel like we must be close to a bottom.

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Yeah, I do too.

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I put out a report in June that said,

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I looked at the metrics that consistently topped,

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just peaked, spiked at other prior tops

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and consistently bottomed at other prior bottoms.

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So I have all these metrics.

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I basically set Claude code to say,

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go look like in my own database,

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which by the way is what I would recommend.

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You don't get a lot of hallucinations

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when you put binding constraints on the AI

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to only use the data you give it, right?

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But what data is that?

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So in this case, it's like all derived Bitcoin metrics.

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So like everything, if you think of like coin metrics and glass node, right?

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Like MBRV and Soper and Nuple and HODL wave data and seller data, right?

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Like on-chain movements.

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This is Thorn on-chain.

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Yes, literally.

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And like mayor multiple and like moving averages, like all that type of stuff, right?

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And so I created a catalog of which ones reliably mark tops and bottoms.

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And then, of course, we go and we look at which of those, did the topping indicators hit in October or in and around that top?

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Have the bottoming indicators hit now?

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And interestingly, of course, we didn't, a lot of the topping indicators didn't hit.

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Some of them hit well before, like after the election and never recovered again.

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In a way, almost like a, so a dampening of the amplitude of the top.

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And part of my thesis is like that may also like cap the downside.

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because like the prior bear market bottoms

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are all like 75 to 85% down.

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We've not gotten that far

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and I really don't think we will.

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I mean, touch wood, me neither.

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But that's actually interesting

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because this ran early.

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Like with the ETFs in start 24, right?

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ETFs like Bitcoin ran,

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then it ran really hard into the Trump election.

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Do you think we just had everything a bit too soon?

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Yeah, in a way.

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Some of the topping indicators

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hit in the post ETF all-time high

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and never hit again.

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And so I agree.

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I mean, look, we remember this.

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I know James Cech called it chop solidation, that 24, right?

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New all-time high, like in February 24,

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having, I think, in April.

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So first time the new all-time high in a cycle

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came before the having,

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which is what had everyone asking,

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is this end of the cycle or whatever.

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Then we chopped for 237 days

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until the sort of Trump election run-up.

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I mean, we got to like 100 right after that.

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and then we only got to 125 after all of 2025 right i mean it just feels like it should have

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gone higher and frankly this is um people have talked about this too 2021 felt like it should

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have gotten higher 100 so it's kind of like you're in obviously you know like the whether it's those

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power law people or whatever like the the um the growth is slowing like the curve is bending towards flatter But again like if you look at the bottom at the start of 2023 it was like 15 Is that where we opened that year

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You know, following FTX's collapse.

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We're at 60.

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I'm looking at my watch like it's a block clock.

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We're at 60.

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This one isn't working.

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Thomas, get this block clock working.

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Actually, it's not even plugged in.

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That's probably why.

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So it's purely an art piece.

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You know, we're at 65K right now.

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That's materially higher bottom, right?

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And 58 has held a couple times now.

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To me, I ran a poll at Galaxy among the trading team and the risk and research teams, basically the markets team at Galaxy about like two nights ago.

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And I put it in the WhatsApp, our group chat.

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And I was like, is this price action, is it grinding higher, ultimately grinding higher?

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Or is it bear market noise?

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Like is 58 to 65 like the start of something?

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and literally like 30 people voted in the poll and it was evenly split 15-15 between those two

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options so people don't know is it time to be are we is 58 the bottom where we've tested like four

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times personally i like to see it bounce harder off 58 and i'm kind of like in maybe the bear

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market like you know maybe set 70 i say okay call it a clean bounce there now 58 but you know 65 is

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close to 63, which is practically 60, which is 58. In my mind, it's just too close. So I think part

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of the thesis is that, but a big reason why, you know, I think it can go into the 50s. It could even

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see a 40, I think is possible. It's what I wrote. It's not necessarily likely, but every day that it

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doesn't like go down, it starts to, I mean, who is left to sell? That's the other big part. One of

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the big things I looked at in that report and I tweet about a lot is like Dorman's coins moving

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on chain which of course does not always mean a sale but it often does i can tell you i haven't

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moved coins out of my cold storage like setup ever yeah so like we had two of the biggest years ever

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of like you know three five seven ten plus year dormant coins waking up in 24 and 25 um only

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rivaled by 2017 but of course 2017 didn't have the volume of like 10 plus year coins we had a fairly

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large amount of those last year. As of halfway through this year, we're looking at if it's like

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the first half, second half mirrors the first half, it'll be less than half the coins at the end of

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this year. So like it's abating, right? And I think that supply side dynamic makes it much,

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much more likely that we've bottomed. And then you just like think through that story. You're

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talking about ETFs in Jan 24 and this whole story that we've lived through the last two years. Like

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if you bought like the ETF buildup at the end of 23 or like the ETF launch is in like the 40s,

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or if you bought during chop solidation, you know, which is like 40 to 60s, like you're held

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from a 60K buy in like 2024 till now, you're flat. You've had so many chances to sell. Even when you,

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if you didn't like the all-time high and you decided to sell once you thought it was going down,

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we rallied back a bunch of times we were just at 82.5 just in april of this year like two months

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ago three months ago like so if you people who felt like when it went to 60 oh crap i should have

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sold they were giving them 30 percent increase to sell into like who is left now that wants to sell

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at 65 i think it's materially diminished seller 100 at this point that's my guess so then you asked

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about the demand side though then we have to think about the demand side and that's a it's also

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tricky. The demand side is an interesting one. So I've had this conversation with a few people

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privately. I don't think I've talked about it on the podcast. If I had to ask you, would the Bitcoin

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price be higher if Saylor had never bought Bitcoin? What do you think the answer would be?

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That is such a good question. I've not ever asked myself that question.

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High or lower, obviously.

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Well, because I mean, he was what? He started buying in summer 2020.

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and he didn't buy that much in the beginning.

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And we got to basically this price

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without him having bought any of that.

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The big pump last time it got to this sort of price

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was really Elon Musk buying.

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Yeah, I mean, in 21.

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Was that about 40K or something?

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Yeah, and this is when Michael Rouhani

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worked at Tesla, right?

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And built out their Bitcoin payments thing.

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And then Elon rugged by selling some

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and saying he was testing liquidity in the market.

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It was great times.

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I don't know.

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I don't know the answer.

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They still own Bitcoin now.

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Yeah, no, no, they own a bunch.

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of Bitcoin. I think SpaceX specifically. I don't know. Does Tesla? Tesla still owns Bitcoin too.

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Yeah. Well, there you go. I mean, he didn't sell at all or anything. But then he, remember he said

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the thing about like that the Bitcoin miners need to like become more energy efficient for him to,

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and of course they are. I remember him having the debate with Marty about that. Yeah. And this is

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like obviously a pretty old debate. I think people don't understand energy now. Like it's not really

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very credible critique of Bitcoin mining. They're very supportive to grids and like you need a lot

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of electricity as soon as ai turned up well yeah now it's kind of like the the target has turned a

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little bit it's not quite all the way there but it's probably about equal to the amount that was

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i mean it wasn't like that mainstream of a criticism for bitcoin mining i don't know i got

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because it got kind of mainstream if you hold bitcoin long enough there's going to come a time

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when you need some dollars it might be a tax bill a business expense life getting in the way but

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00:10:17,223 --> 00:10:32,486
whatever it is it might come at a time when you don want to sell your bitcoin that where leaden comes in leaden lets you borrow against your bitcoin instead with tiered rates that go as low as 9 so you don have to sell your stack if you don want to Ledin have operated through every market cycle since 2018

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200
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208
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If you own a Bitcoin ETF,

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00:12:01,246 --> 00:12:02,366
especially if it's GBTC,

223
00:12:02,626 --> 00:12:03,606
you need to listen up.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide price exposure to Bitcoin,

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not direct ownership.

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You can't withdraw it,

227
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you can't self-custody it,

228
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and they charge you a management fee every year to hold it.

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Well, Swan recently announced Swan Real Bitcoin Exchange,

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00:12:16,366 --> 00:12:21,686
and it's ready to use right now. RBX is a structured in-kind exchange that converts your

231
00:12:21,686 --> 00:12:26,386
spot Bitcoin ETF shares into real on-chain Bitcoin. It does that without selling on the

232
00:12:26,386 --> 00:12:30,806
open market and it's designed to support a tax-efficient outcome. So for example, if you

233
00:12:30,806 --> 00:12:36,386
hold GBTC, you're paying 1.5% a year in management fees for Bitcoin price exposure. But by swapping

234
00:12:36,386 --> 00:12:42,766
GBTC for real Bitcoin with RBX, you can drop that figure as low as 0% by just holding it in self-custody.

235
00:12:43,326 --> 00:12:45,826
This is designed in a way that maintains your cost basis

236
00:12:45,826 --> 00:12:48,686
and in a manner that supports the deferral of capital gains tax.

237
00:12:49,126 --> 00:12:51,886
So if you own a Bitcoin ETF, especially if it's GBTC,

238
00:12:52,626 --> 00:12:55,346
you need to talk to Swan Private about RBX today.

239
00:12:55,886 --> 00:12:58,306
Head over to swan.com forward slash WBD

240
00:12:58,306 --> 00:13:00,006
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241
00:13:00,346 --> 00:13:03,646
That's swan.com forward slash WBD.

242
00:13:04,446 --> 00:13:06,886
But the thing is like the facts were always on our side with that.

243
00:13:07,046 --> 00:13:09,126
Like I feel like people like Daniel Batten and Troy Cross

244
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did amazing work at dispelling that FUD.

245
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Right.

246
00:13:11,346 --> 00:13:15,706
And I think, but for Saylor, I mean, I think he's done a lot for Bitcoin adoption.

247
00:13:16,106 --> 00:13:22,186
And I think, I also think, by the way, on the supply side of this current moment, like

248
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they've substantially raised cash now, I think, to mostly like settle any fears that like

249
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there'd be like a recursive spiral.

250
00:13:29,806 --> 00:13:31,326
Which I think is a really good idea from them.

251
00:13:31,446 --> 00:13:32,246
I think that's a good move.

252
00:13:32,466 --> 00:13:32,726
Yeah.

253
00:13:32,866 --> 00:13:36,706
I mean, I think, look, it was so funny though, it was a big pivot for them, like to basically

254
00:13:36,706 --> 00:13:40,386
say, we're going to actively manage this book.

255
00:13:40,386 --> 00:13:40,746
Yeah.

256
00:13:40,746 --> 00:13:45,726
Because he had been, he had designed the entire thing as just a pure like money in the door

257
00:13:45,726 --> 00:13:47,746
insta-buy Bitcoin, money in the door insta-buy.

258
00:13:47,846 --> 00:13:49,466
No, like that's what we do.

259
00:13:49,746 --> 00:13:49,926
Yeah.

260
00:13:50,046 --> 00:13:55,066
And that's why you should own a Bitcoin treasury company, by the way, because they are like

261
00:13:55,066 --> 00:13:57,406
predictable permanent buyers.

262
00:13:58,286 --> 00:14:01,886
But he isn't really a Bitcoin treasury company by his own admission now.

263
00:14:01,966 --> 00:14:04,586
He's a digital credit purveyor, right?

264
00:14:04,646 --> 00:14:05,606
So it's different.

265
00:14:05,726 --> 00:14:06,306
It has different needs.

266
00:14:06,306 --> 00:14:13,806
I mean, he didn't have to do the preferred issuances that add this complexity with liabilities before.

267
00:14:14,906 --> 00:14:22,946
Initially, he was just selling MSTR stock when it was trading above the value of his Bitcoin and then buying Bitcoin with it.

268
00:14:23,806 --> 00:14:28,826
But he was able to stack quite a lot using these new vehicles.

269
00:14:28,826 --> 00:14:33,266
So, I mean, look, I really respect strategy and Michael Saylor.

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00:14:33,266 --> 00:14:36,206
And one of the things that I am so fascinated by

271
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is the creativity they have on the financing side.

272
00:14:38,786 --> 00:14:41,966
So he should be thought as one of the world's

273
00:14:41,966 --> 00:14:43,306
premier financial engineers.

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00:14:43,646 --> 00:14:45,926
Everyone thinks I don't like Saylor, which is just not true.

275
00:14:47,286 --> 00:14:50,066
And I don't think he's been a negative to Bitcoin.

276
00:14:50,386 --> 00:14:51,846
But the question I would have is,

277
00:14:52,026 --> 00:14:54,726
has his buy side been that instrumental?

278
00:14:55,146 --> 00:14:57,806
In the sense that without him,

279
00:14:58,026 --> 00:15:00,086
obviously he's been a huge buyer over the last few years.

280
00:15:00,406 --> 00:15:02,266
As of ETFs, they've been like the two main buyers.

281
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Would the Bitcoin price be higher or lower

282
00:15:04,506 --> 00:15:06,906
without the whole treasury company thing ever existing?

283
00:15:06,986 --> 00:15:08,326
I think it's a really interesting conversation

284
00:15:08,326 --> 00:15:11,526
because if I had to just completely guess,

285
00:15:11,586 --> 00:15:12,846
obviously no one knows the answer to this,

286
00:15:13,166 --> 00:15:14,206
I would say maybe it's the same.

287
00:15:14,466 --> 00:15:16,506
Maybe it hasn't actually made a huge incremental difference.

288
00:15:16,506 --> 00:15:19,226
Yeah, because also the demand that powered those

289
00:15:19,226 --> 00:15:21,046
could have just bought the ETFs or Bitcoin.

290
00:15:22,266 --> 00:15:25,146
I think that's a fair way to think of it,

291
00:15:25,186 --> 00:15:26,646
that it could be replacement for demand,

292
00:15:26,806 --> 00:15:29,086
not substantially more demand.

293
00:15:29,246 --> 00:15:31,106
Especially when you look at the people

294
00:15:31,106 --> 00:15:32,206
that are buying the treasury companies.

295
00:15:32,266 --> 00:15:45,809
is generally like retail investors who probably could just buy Bitcoin Right I think so I think it a fascinating counterfactual to think about Look your interview with Michael I think you interviewed him right after I did like a month after

296
00:15:45,809 --> 00:15:53,489
I have to admit, I struggled to get my questions in. He was doing his filibuster routine. And I was

297
00:15:53,489 --> 00:15:59,269
really proud of your questions to him. And I frankly thought his reactions were really telling

298
00:15:59,269 --> 00:16:06,769
to people and it was not taken well. And frankly, as a person who does a show myself, looking at a

299
00:16:06,769 --> 00:16:12,649
person who does a show like you, like we have obviously different shows and you did a service,

300
00:16:12,809 --> 00:16:18,269
I think, to the community by asking him that question. And frankly, it was an incredible clip.

301
00:16:18,489 --> 00:16:24,129
Like that was great media. How well did that clip? It's funny. I saw him in Vegas and he did a show

302
00:16:24,129 --> 00:16:28,789
with Pete and I was in the room with Pete when he was setting up and Pete just made a very offhand

303
00:16:28,789 --> 00:16:31,548
joke being like, you're not going to shout at me like you didn't Danny, do you? And he was like,

304
00:16:31,609 --> 00:16:36,249
hey, I made Danny go viral. Yeah, you did. Thank you, sir. Yeah. I mean, I think it was a great

305
00:16:36,249 --> 00:16:41,689
interview. I honestly, and I love interviewing Michael because he's just like a crazy mind that

306
00:16:41,689 --> 00:16:46,928
has all these like really fascinating ideas. And his story has evolved so much. I mean, he talks

307
00:16:46,928 --> 00:16:52,369
about this all the time. Like he, I mean, he hated Bitcoin. Now he's, he's well beyond just

308
00:16:52,369 --> 00:16:57,668
loving Bitcoin. He's got this whole new, bigger idea. It's really interesting. So no, I like him.

309
00:16:57,668 --> 00:17:04,129
And the thing that I think I miss is the 2020, 2021 sailor.

310
00:17:04,309 --> 00:17:05,369
Like just being truthful.

311
00:17:05,529 --> 00:17:07,109
And like he can do whatever the hell he wants.

312
00:17:07,188 --> 00:17:08,629
And like, who am I to say what he can do?

313
00:17:08,728 --> 00:17:10,228
But like, that's the sailor I miss

314
00:17:10,228 --> 00:17:12,049
because I thought he was really on it back then.

315
00:17:12,369 --> 00:17:14,089
And I feel like the digital credit thing

316
00:17:14,089 --> 00:17:15,669
has kind of strayed a little bit.

317
00:17:16,448 --> 00:17:19,069
And one of the things that I really don't particularly like

318
00:17:19,069 --> 00:17:20,968
is talking about making Bitcoin better money

319
00:17:20,968 --> 00:17:22,228
through these digital credit products.

320
00:17:22,309 --> 00:17:24,149
Like that's something that kind of just rubs me up the wrong way.

321
00:17:24,289 --> 00:17:26,429
But like, it's kind of by the by, it doesn't really matter.

322
00:17:26,429 --> 00:17:32,389
But I just, I think it is interesting to think about what the demand side would be like without

323
00:17:32,389 --> 00:17:34,669
the treasury companies ever having existed.

324
00:17:35,208 --> 00:17:36,369
It is very interesting.

325
00:17:36,549 --> 00:17:38,228
And I do not, I do not know.

326
00:17:38,349 --> 00:17:42,069
And look, there are a lot of them are not having existed at this point.

327
00:17:42,329 --> 00:17:42,508
I know.

328
00:17:42,649 --> 00:17:43,869
You see Satsuma's gone now.

329
00:17:44,109 --> 00:17:44,468
Satsuma.

330
00:17:44,789 --> 00:17:47,629
And I mean, I don't know what 21 is going to do, but obviously with Jack.

331
00:17:47,769 --> 00:17:48,389
What do you think about that?

332
00:17:48,389 --> 00:17:48,629
Announcing.

333
00:17:49,688 --> 00:17:50,448
I don't know.

334
00:17:50,609 --> 00:17:52,049
I literally do not know.

335
00:17:52,049 --> 00:17:56,948
I mean, Jack didn't, he wasn't that forthcoming

336
00:17:56,948 --> 00:17:59,369
about exactly what the underlying issue was, right?

337
00:17:59,369 --> 00:18:00,769
He said he has a disagreement with the board.

338
00:18:01,569 --> 00:18:02,488
I don't know what that means.

339
00:18:02,629 --> 00:18:03,008
Me neither.

340
00:18:03,149 --> 00:18:04,349
And I always find it very hard

341
00:18:04,349 --> 00:18:05,769
because like Jack is a friend of both of ours.

342
00:18:05,849 --> 00:18:08,069
It's hard talking about a friend in this kind of way

343
00:18:08,069 --> 00:18:08,789
without him being here.

344
00:18:08,869 --> 00:18:11,069
But like, I feel like some of the hints

345
00:18:11,069 --> 00:18:12,309
that he was giving were that,

346
00:18:13,529 --> 00:18:15,529
obviously he was saying the direction was different

347
00:18:15,529 --> 00:18:17,708
between what the company wants and what he wanted.

348
00:18:18,129 --> 00:18:19,468
I think it's the right move for him to step down

349
00:18:19,468 --> 00:18:20,188
if that's the case.

350
00:18:20,188 --> 00:18:24,008
And I'm also super psyched that Jack's going to be unleashed Jack again.

351
00:18:24,349 --> 00:18:28,789
Like one of the things I don't like about the public company stuff is that no one can say what they think.

352
00:18:29,149 --> 00:18:30,349
Like everyone has to be so careful.

353
00:18:30,529 --> 00:18:33,629
I mean, especially if you're the CEO of a publicly listed company, right?

354
00:18:33,629 --> 00:18:38,869
Because you have to file 8Ks when your peer place is like you really can't say.

355
00:18:39,049 --> 00:18:44,589
And of course, this is true for really any company, but even more so for a publicly listed one.

356
00:18:44,649 --> 00:18:46,448
Like you've got this fiduciary duty to your shareholders.

357
00:18:46,448 --> 00:18:54,269
Yeah. You got to if it can possibly contradicts with the, you know, value of the stock, you have to be careful.

358
00:18:55,149 --> 00:18:58,929
And then, yeah, there's lawyers and there's like, I mean, private company is a lot different.

359
00:18:59,228 --> 00:19:02,909
Yeah. I also like I mean, we've I've just always enjoyed Strike.

360
00:19:02,988 --> 00:19:07,448
I think it's a good app. It's been a great app. It's it's Jack and his team are cool.

361
00:19:07,829 --> 00:19:10,748
Jack is one of the coolest people, in my view, in Bitcoin.

362
00:19:10,809 --> 00:19:13,609
A hundred percent. I mean, the whole his whole bit with the closet.

363
00:19:13,609 --> 00:19:15,929
I die laughing every time I see.

364
00:19:15,929 --> 00:19:17,129
Jack and Dylan, they crush you, man.

365
00:19:17,188 --> 00:19:17,968
I know, they do.

366
00:19:18,228 --> 00:19:22,089
But it's, like, Satsuma's small relative to the other treasury companies.

367
00:19:22,169 --> 00:19:24,468
But like 650 Bitcoin or something, it's not insignificant.

368
00:19:24,589 --> 00:19:25,589
Yeah, there's others, though.

369
00:19:25,748 --> 00:19:31,948
I don't, I've stopped, I mean, to kind of partly to the point, like, I don't really follow the treasury companies much anymore.

370
00:19:32,188 --> 00:19:36,349
But the reason I bring it up is, like, these are the things that feel like bottom signals to me.

371
00:19:36,769 --> 00:19:38,488
Yeah, I think there's some truth to that.

372
00:19:38,569 --> 00:19:43,649
I think, and there was a whole, like, rage quit of, like, all these people, like Jeremy Grantham, all these, like,

373
00:19:43,649 --> 00:19:48,429
all the old jokers came out to like dunk on bitcoin that always happens at the bottom remember

374
00:19:48,429 --> 00:19:52,968
like peter zayhan like yeah this always happens when you're saying bitcoin's 17 000 it's gonna go

375
00:19:52,968 --> 00:19:57,988
negative yeah we're like dude well you were literally exactly wrong in fact you basically

376
00:19:57,988 --> 00:20:02,688
painted the bottom yeah um i mean look like it's a long history of bitcoin making critics look

377
00:20:02,688 --> 00:20:08,208
stupid i i'm i think the the demand side going forward though i think you're not right like

378
00:20:08,208 --> 00:20:12,369
sailors i don't you're not going to see them buying a ton probably for the rest of the year

379
00:20:12,369 --> 00:20:17,508
maybe some depending on what happens you know if it you know he said that he'll be buying the top

380
00:20:17,508 --> 00:20:21,909
forever to laura shin that time right which is a banger clip i love it and i it has multiple

381
00:20:21,909 --> 00:20:26,948
meanings but one of them i mean it's i like the meaning that like he's a buyer at all prices so

382
00:20:26,948 --> 00:20:30,248
it's like you know if you buy the real estate market in the u.s like the last 30 years you've

383
00:20:30,248 --> 00:20:34,789
been buying the top forever and it's also like he's one of us like i buy the top every time exactly

384
00:20:34,789 --> 00:20:39,708
but it's also that like he is structurally practically incapable of not buying the top

385
00:20:39,708 --> 00:20:41,708
That's when he gets the leverage to buy.

386
00:20:41,708 --> 00:20:42,309
Yeah. Right.

387
00:20:42,309 --> 00:20:47,748
He needs the exuberance because that's what creates the premium on his stock.

388
00:20:48,208 --> 00:20:49,968
Right. So actually, like I haven't

389
00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:54,411
released this yet, but I've been working on like an academic study, like the ETFs and

390
00:20:54,411 --> 00:20:59,571
Saylor both are structural price followers, like mathematically speaking.

391
00:20:59,791 --> 00:21:00,571
They're lagging in decay.

392
00:21:00,671 --> 00:21:02,371
It makes total sense for Saylor.

393
00:21:02,491 --> 00:21:05,251
The ETFs can be a little bit more surprising to think about.

394
00:21:05,331 --> 00:21:09,231
But again, Saylor, he needs the momentum to exist already.

395
00:21:09,391 --> 00:21:13,451
So it's not like you'll see headlines that are like Bitcoin rises on like strategies,

396
00:21:13,591 --> 00:21:13,971
big buy.

397
00:21:14,031 --> 00:21:15,191
And it's like, it's the opposite.

398
00:21:15,611 --> 00:21:16,531
It's actually the opposite.

399
00:21:16,531 --> 00:21:17,471
It's almost always the opposite.

400
00:21:17,471 --> 00:21:21,191
Yeah, so he'll be buying the top forever because that's when he's structurally able to buy.

401
00:21:22,191 --> 00:21:26,811
And you can see, I mean, now the digital credit thing, engine, as he calls it,

402
00:21:26,931 --> 00:21:29,171
that did create a counterfactual.

403
00:21:29,391 --> 00:21:32,451
Bitcoin's going down, demand is declining while he was still,

404
00:21:32,811 --> 00:21:34,511
I mean, the beginning of this year, I forget the numbers,

405
00:21:34,611 --> 00:21:36,311
but he bought tons of Bitcoin with that.

406
00:21:36,391 --> 00:21:37,091
It was very effective.

407
00:21:38,311 --> 00:21:41,511
But I think about it sort of more generally going for this year.

408
00:21:42,331 --> 00:21:45,471
If you go and ask somebody, what do you think you don't own enough of,

409
00:21:45,471 --> 00:21:47,271
Bitcoin or like NVIDIA stock?

410
00:21:47,471 --> 00:21:55,191
For most of this year, I think most people, even Bitcoiners, would say, I'm definitely underweight AI, and I wish I was longer AI.

411
00:21:56,051 --> 00:21:59,691
And so Bitcoin's been competing with that whole trend.

412
00:21:59,771 --> 00:22:10,111
And then there's the whole derivative and supply chain trends around that, data centers, neoclouds, memory chips, the metals that go into them, whatever.

413
00:22:10,431 --> 00:22:12,871
All that stuff has just ripped this year.

414
00:22:12,871 --> 00:22:18,631
but all of it right now at this moment it's all kind of like it's like it's probably a local top

415
00:22:18,631 --> 00:22:25,751
i have no idea not like the top but like i think frankly like that um the if you call a pullback

416
00:22:25,751 --> 00:22:29,871
or the flat the flattening a little bit of that ai trade is help is being supportive of bitcoin

417
00:22:29,871 --> 00:22:32,991
yeah a little bit right i agree with that there were a lot of people who definitely like called

418
00:22:32,991 --> 00:22:36,331
up their broker and they were like because they bought the etf and they're like not deep into

419
00:22:36,331 --> 00:22:40,251
bitcoin and they're like hey that bitcoin thing's not doing well like sell it and like buy nvidia

420
00:22:40,251 --> 00:22:42,451
Like there's definitely a lot of that, right?

421
00:22:42,651 --> 00:22:46,131
So I think a lot of that has probably abated temporarily too.

422
00:22:46,591 --> 00:22:54,071
And then like, you know, clarity can be a catalyst, although probably Bitcoin's not the primary beneficiary of it.

423
00:22:54,111 --> 00:22:56,671
I mean, even Gensler said Bitcoin was a commodity, right?

424
00:22:56,771 --> 00:23:04,051
So like, but it can be, I think it will be if it passes and can become law, that'll be a demand catalyst.

425
00:23:04,431 --> 00:23:08,351
But then it's like the age old story, like Bitcoin's momentum, reflexive assets,

426
00:23:08,351 --> 00:23:10,611
It's one of the most reflexive assets in the world.

427
00:23:10,971 --> 00:23:12,191
It's like a Veblen good.

428
00:23:12,291 --> 00:23:14,591
People want to buy it when it starts going up.

429
00:23:14,691 --> 00:23:16,151
So like you'll have people if we go,

430
00:23:16,491 --> 00:23:19,851
if we just like the hodlers that are owning it down here at 60K,

431
00:23:20,451 --> 00:23:22,271
we're still DCAing and buying.

432
00:23:22,651 --> 00:23:24,811
I, you know, disclaimer, like I own Bitcoin.

433
00:23:24,971 --> 00:23:26,991
I buy Bitcoin regularly on a programmatic basis

434
00:23:26,991 --> 00:23:28,711
and have for a long time.

435
00:23:29,611 --> 00:23:32,591
We just bleed this thing higher because the sellers are exhausted.

436
00:23:32,591 --> 00:23:34,571
Then at some point it all starts to kick in.

437
00:23:34,651 --> 00:23:35,751
The narrative reemerges.

438
00:23:36,251 --> 00:23:38,031
I think there's a chance that you're going to see like,

439
00:23:38,351 --> 00:23:42,611
You know, the stuff that's happening in debt, there's so much debt, the corporate debt.

440
00:23:42,751 --> 00:23:47,091
There's so much debt being issued to pay for all the data centers, not just here, but worldwide.

441
00:23:47,431 --> 00:23:52,271
I think you're going to see substantial, like the fiscal impulse is going to become substantial.

442
00:23:52,711 --> 00:23:56,311
You're going to hear about like the debasement story is going to come back.

443
00:23:56,311 --> 00:23:58,551
And all of a sudden, you're going to look at Bitcoin.

444
00:23:58,671 --> 00:24:02,451
It's going to be at like 90K and everyone's going to be like, oh no, I need Bitcoin because of the storm.

445
00:24:02,551 --> 00:24:06,051
And all of a sudden, it's just everybody remembers why they liked Bitcoin in the first place.

446
00:24:06,051 --> 00:24:08,851
and then like, bam, it's no longer in like a bear market.

447
00:24:08,971 --> 00:24:10,371
It's sort of just like chugging along.

448
00:24:10,831 --> 00:24:12,991
Like that, it's, I think James has talked about this,

449
00:24:13,051 --> 00:24:14,651
James Check, and I totally agree with it.

450
00:24:14,711 --> 00:24:16,891
Like it's not just the price bottoming,

451
00:24:17,031 --> 00:24:18,371
the price pain that has to happen.

452
00:24:18,451 --> 00:24:19,191
It's the time pain.

453
00:24:19,671 --> 00:24:22,071
People just need time to like be angry,

454
00:24:22,291 --> 00:24:25,191
like sell or whatever, then get so bored,

455
00:24:25,291 --> 00:24:26,991
go away for a while, forget about it.

456
00:24:27,311 --> 00:24:29,271
Then like get their interest peaked again.

457
00:24:29,351 --> 00:24:30,211
Like that just takes time.

458
00:24:30,271 --> 00:24:30,451
Yeah.

459
00:24:30,711 --> 00:24:32,411
And yeah, it's gonna happen.

460
00:24:32,511 --> 00:24:34,011
And truthfully, I don't think most people's interest

461
00:24:34,011 --> 00:24:35,551
gets peaked until the price starts going up again.

462
00:24:35,551 --> 00:24:36,131
That's what I'm saying.

463
00:24:36,211 --> 00:24:36,351
Yeah.

464
00:24:36,471 --> 00:24:37,931
So you need the sort of like, you know,

465
00:24:37,991 --> 00:24:39,831
but the price can't really go up

466
00:24:39,831 --> 00:24:42,011
until all those people have already sold, basically.

467
00:24:42,271 --> 00:24:44,511
And that's why we debate like the supply.

468
00:24:45,151 --> 00:24:46,911
There's not, I just don't think there's nearly

469
00:24:46,911 --> 00:24:49,511
as much supply looking to sell at these levels as there was.

470
00:24:49,651 --> 00:24:49,811
Yeah.

471
00:24:50,131 --> 00:24:50,951
No, I agree with that.

472
00:24:51,051 --> 00:24:52,351
One of the interesting things, I think,

473
00:24:52,431 --> 00:24:53,811
you can tell me that you think this is stupid,

474
00:24:53,811 --> 00:24:55,211
but with the AI trade,

475
00:24:55,291 --> 00:24:56,871
obviously that took so much of the wind

476
00:24:56,871 --> 00:24:58,091
out of Bitcoin sales last year.

477
00:24:58,431 --> 00:25:00,291
And the companies that have done really well

478
00:25:00,291 --> 00:25:02,631
are the data centers and the chip manufacturers,

479
00:25:02,731 --> 00:25:03,331
that kind of thing.

480
00:25:03,331 --> 00:25:09,851
Do you think that they could almost be like what the Bitcoin miners used to be to Bitcoin, to AI,

481
00:25:10,031 --> 00:25:13,631
in that they're almost like a proxy vehicle to get exposure to AI?

482
00:25:14,051 --> 00:25:16,551
And when we see, like, obviously, SpaceX has now gone live,

483
00:25:17,531 --> 00:25:19,771
Anthropoc is going to IPO, OpenAI is going to IPO.

484
00:25:20,031 --> 00:25:22,971
Do you think they're all going to get crushed when there's, like, a real vehicle

485
00:25:22,971 --> 00:25:25,771
that is actually, like, explicitly AI exposure?

486
00:25:25,851 --> 00:25:26,751
That's an interesting question.

487
00:25:26,991 --> 00:25:29,771
I think, I don't think so.

488
00:25:29,871 --> 00:25:30,571
I'll tell you why.

489
00:25:30,571 --> 00:25:33,631
One, the frontier labs, right?

490
00:25:33,671 --> 00:25:36,191
They are purveyors of models, right?

491
00:25:36,211 --> 00:25:37,631
They don't own primarily,

492
00:25:37,811 --> 00:25:38,531
so maybe they have some,

493
00:25:38,671 --> 00:25:40,791
but they're not the purveyors of energy

494
00:25:40,791 --> 00:25:42,791
and compute typically, right?

495
00:25:42,811 --> 00:25:44,471
Most of them are using data center,

496
00:25:44,571 --> 00:25:46,951
NeoCloud, hyperscaler contracts,

497
00:25:47,031 --> 00:25:47,951
and they're creating the models.

498
00:25:48,331 --> 00:25:51,051
The open source models are getting substantially better.

499
00:25:51,291 --> 00:25:52,571
I mean, all models are getting better,

500
00:25:52,651 --> 00:25:53,891
but it feels at least right now

501
00:25:53,891 --> 00:25:55,531
like the gap between the frontier

502
00:25:55,531 --> 00:25:57,471
and the open source is declining.

503
00:25:57,471 --> 00:26:07,468
Well Kimi K3 beat everything pretty much didn it Well on a couple benchmarks Not Yeah not necessarily all of them Okay But it close Yeah I mean even like six months ago

504
00:26:07,608 --> 00:26:09,568
I think the conventional wisdom was that the open sources

505
00:26:09,568 --> 00:26:11,448
were like a year behind the frontier.

506
00:26:12,128 --> 00:26:15,168
And wherever, whether they're behind or beating or even,

507
00:26:15,528 --> 00:26:17,328
everyone agrees that's collapsed substantially.

508
00:26:17,588 --> 00:26:17,708
Yeah.

509
00:26:17,828 --> 00:26:19,568
Now it could expand again.

510
00:26:19,768 --> 00:26:22,208
Like, I don't know if the frontier labs get access

511
00:26:22,208 --> 00:26:24,928
to like troves of proprietary data sets

512
00:26:24,928 --> 00:26:26,368
that make them able to train better

513
00:26:26,368 --> 00:26:30,228
or if they can hoard the better new chips

514
00:26:30,228 --> 00:26:31,888
and train the models on the better new chips

515
00:26:31,888 --> 00:26:34,488
that the open source purveyors can't.

516
00:26:34,608 --> 00:26:35,948
Like, okay, it could expand.

517
00:26:36,188 --> 00:26:39,208
But those open source models still need data centers.

518
00:26:39,348 --> 00:26:42,088
They just cut out the paying the middleman tokens.

519
00:26:42,348 --> 00:26:44,808
So I actually think you could see the frontier labs

520
00:26:44,808 --> 00:26:46,688
need to move more into the application space

521
00:26:46,688 --> 00:26:50,288
and not rely on selling tokens.

522
00:26:50,448 --> 00:26:50,948
That's what they do.

523
00:26:51,008 --> 00:26:52,388
They are token merchants, right?

524
00:26:52,948 --> 00:26:55,168
And so I think there's, I mean,

525
00:26:55,168 --> 00:27:00,288
there's so many angles to these parts of these stories but um i think it's possible that your

526
00:27:00,928 --> 00:27:05,888
theory that the you know like a public anthropic ipo could take the wind out of sales of like what

527
00:27:05,888 --> 00:27:11,488
a microsoft or you know like the neocloud the irons of the world yeah um or the galaxies right

528
00:27:11,488 --> 00:27:16,448
we have we have our own data centers as well big ones and um but i but i think the reality i think

529
00:27:16,448 --> 00:27:20,768
more likely what's going to happen is that those models are disrupted by open source models which

530
00:27:20,768 --> 00:27:25,088
which by the way, are really big and they need them.

531
00:27:25,348 --> 00:27:27,228
So instead of maybe paying Anthropic,

532
00:27:27,788 --> 00:27:28,828
bigger companies first,

533
00:27:28,928 --> 00:27:31,368
but then maybe depending on how easy this gets,

534
00:27:31,888 --> 00:27:35,068
bigger enterprises start getting their own compute

535
00:27:35,068 --> 00:27:37,528
and running the open source models on them,

536
00:27:37,948 --> 00:27:40,368
but thereby bypassing the spending

537
00:27:40,368 --> 00:27:41,808
on Anthropic and OpenAI.

538
00:27:42,448 --> 00:27:43,168
It's possible.

539
00:27:43,588 --> 00:27:46,108
I think this is a, but again, no one knows.

540
00:27:46,448 --> 00:27:47,948
Because there's also the added variable

541
00:27:47,948 --> 00:27:48,728
that no one knows about,

542
00:27:48,828 --> 00:27:50,428
which is what the US government are going to do.

543
00:27:50,428 --> 00:27:52,988
They've clearly been holding back these frontier models.

544
00:27:53,448 --> 00:27:56,428
And I feel like their hand's getting forced

545
00:27:56,428 --> 00:27:58,048
and they're going to have to just unleash them.

546
00:27:58,528 --> 00:27:59,488
I agree.

547
00:27:59,768 --> 00:28:02,228
I mean, but yes, the questions of alignment

548
00:28:02,228 --> 00:28:04,248
and safety and regulation

549
00:28:04,248 --> 00:28:07,448
and the geopolitics of it are very substantial.

550
00:28:07,748 --> 00:28:08,688
Does safety matter though

551
00:28:08,688 --> 00:28:11,528
if they're holding back these US companies

552
00:28:11,528 --> 00:28:12,948
because of safety concerns,

553
00:28:12,988 --> 00:28:14,128
which might be totally valid,

554
00:28:14,448 --> 00:28:16,108
but the Chinese models don't care?

555
00:28:16,428 --> 00:28:18,568
Do they just be like, okay, how about it?

556
00:28:18,568 --> 00:28:19,668
Well, yeah.

557
00:28:19,668 --> 00:28:21,668
I mean, that's the AI arms race.

558
00:28:21,828 --> 00:28:22,608
I mean, there's a couple.

559
00:28:22,788 --> 00:28:25,768
I mean, you could imagine there's great essays, AI 2027.

560
00:28:25,908 --> 00:28:26,548
Have you read this?

561
00:28:26,668 --> 00:28:27,308
Or AI 2040?

562
00:28:27,948 --> 00:28:31,888
So they've game theoryed out so many different possible outcomes.

563
00:28:31,988 --> 00:28:32,768
It's really, really fun.

564
00:28:32,808 --> 00:28:34,068
I recommend people check that out.

565
00:28:34,808 --> 00:28:40,468
And no, you can end up with a massive accord between China and the US to stop the arms race,

566
00:28:40,488 --> 00:28:41,888
just like during the Cold War.

567
00:28:42,268 --> 00:28:43,528
It's totally possible, right?

568
00:28:44,228 --> 00:28:46,028
I mean, I don't know.

569
00:28:46,088 --> 00:28:48,128
How much better do you think it can really get?

570
00:28:48,128 --> 00:28:57,068
Like, I mean, I'm doing stuff with like 5.6 and Fable that is like just literally mind bending versus just like four months ago.

571
00:28:57,308 --> 00:29:00,488
So like, yeah, I mean, I guess it can probably always get better.

572
00:29:00,988 --> 00:29:02,008
It can get cheaper.

573
00:29:02,268 --> 00:29:04,768
I think this is like really what's likely to happen.

574
00:29:04,888 --> 00:29:07,988
There will be an AI that's too powerful to be public.

575
00:29:08,188 --> 00:29:08,368
Yeah.

576
00:29:08,488 --> 00:29:13,268
And if China is going to give it to their people and we're not going to give it to ours, of course, that disadvantages us.

577
00:29:13,328 --> 00:29:16,888
And I bet you would see the U.S. force China to close theirs off too.

578
00:29:17,608 --> 00:29:21,648
And so then the evolution would become

579
00:29:21,648 --> 00:29:23,388
making it cheaper and cheaper and cheaper

580
00:29:23,388 --> 00:29:24,468
and more accessible, right?

581
00:29:24,488 --> 00:29:25,608
And we're in that spot now.

582
00:29:25,648 --> 00:29:26,748
That's starting to be what happens.

583
00:29:27,528 --> 00:29:28,988
Wait, so you think that they might end up

584
00:29:28,988 --> 00:29:30,328
capping intelligence, being like,

585
00:29:30,388 --> 00:29:32,028
this is as smart as we're going to allow this to get?

586
00:29:32,208 --> 00:29:35,248
I think it's almost certainly inevitable at some point.

587
00:29:35,368 --> 00:29:38,468
I mean, if the truth is that we simply can't make it smarter,

588
00:29:39,048 --> 00:29:40,248
like let's say we hit the wall,

589
00:29:40,428 --> 00:29:42,588
that's the only other thing that's going to stop it from growing.

590
00:29:42,668 --> 00:29:44,328
Otherwise, wouldn't it just get smarter forever?

591
00:29:44,628 --> 00:29:46,368
Yeah, but what, like...

592
00:29:46,368 --> 00:29:46,968
That's dangerous.

593
00:29:47,148 --> 00:29:48,188
It's absolutely dangerous.

594
00:29:48,328 --> 00:29:48,628
Sure.

595
00:29:48,888 --> 00:29:49,908
No, it's definitely dangerous.

596
00:29:50,068 --> 00:29:50,628
I agree with that.

597
00:29:50,628 --> 00:29:52,928
Governments are going to involve themselves.

598
00:29:53,068 --> 00:29:53,928
I think it's very obvious.

599
00:29:53,948 --> 00:29:55,188
But is that not almost like Bitcoin,

600
00:29:55,328 --> 00:29:57,088
where it's like, yes, this can be used for bad things,

601
00:29:57,128 --> 00:29:58,308
but it can also be used for great things?

602
00:29:58,388 --> 00:30:00,448
Yeah, but Bitcoin can't literally destroy the Earth.

603
00:30:00,688 --> 00:30:02,548
It can't create Terminator robots.

604
00:30:02,968 --> 00:30:05,688
It can't itself train robots to build a factory,

605
00:30:05,768 --> 00:30:06,628
to build more robots,

606
00:30:06,628 --> 00:30:11,248
and then invade your city like in Minority Report or iRobot.

607
00:30:12,448 --> 00:30:14,728
But is this like holding a balloon underwater,

608
00:30:14,868 --> 00:30:16,308
where you hold it down as long as you can,

609
00:30:16,368 --> 00:30:19,588
And to be clear, I'm like an optimist about AI.

610
00:30:19,728 --> 00:30:21,888
I just think like there's no world

611
00:30:21,888 --> 00:30:23,288
where like everyone's going to get

612
00:30:23,288 --> 00:30:26,528
like literally like extraterrestrial superhuman intelligence

613
00:30:26,528 --> 00:30:28,368
that can crack any lock.

614
00:30:28,468 --> 00:30:29,848
Like that's not going to be allowed.

615
00:30:30,448 --> 00:30:32,728
And so I think, I don't know where that is.

616
00:30:32,808 --> 00:30:34,848
I certainly don't want to, I don't think it's here.

617
00:30:35,328 --> 00:30:37,168
Like it's now, but I think at some point,

618
00:30:37,168 --> 00:30:40,088
like I think conceptually,

619
00:30:40,188 --> 00:30:43,068
there is absolutely a model too smart to let everyone use.

620
00:30:43,428 --> 00:30:45,648
And the question, I think what we need-

621
00:30:45,648 --> 00:30:48,488
But the problem is, like, I, so I think you're so right.

622
00:30:48,588 --> 00:30:51,208
I think there is probably a model that's too smart to let everyone use,

623
00:30:51,528 --> 00:30:52,648
but they'll still use it.

624
00:30:52,708 --> 00:30:53,608
That's my problem with it.

625
00:30:53,728 --> 00:30:56,828
Well, this is like one of the theses in this AI 2040 is that like,

626
00:30:56,868 --> 00:31:00,868
they literally set up where like all of the US's training is in like Mongolia,

627
00:31:00,968 --> 00:31:03,208
right next to China, and all of China's is in Canada.

628
00:31:03,208 --> 00:31:08,128
So we can both easily just bomb it, like in a literal, like, um, like, you know,

629
00:31:08,288 --> 00:31:09,528
mutual shared destruction.

630
00:31:09,708 --> 00:31:09,888
Yeah.

631
00:31:10,008 --> 00:31:20,124
I think But that like that that seems to me like you accepting the permanent underclass You like you giving the government control to use this AI that way too powerful for the public Well it not clear I mean I think one of the

632
00:31:20,264 --> 00:31:21,204
I think they'd probably

633
00:31:21,204 --> 00:31:22,444
both ban as well.

634
00:31:22,564 --> 00:31:23,204
I mean, it's just like

635
00:31:23,204 --> 00:31:24,104
the government didn't

636
00:31:24,104 --> 00:31:25,584
also use the nukes

637
00:31:25,584 --> 00:31:26,424
like when we had-

638
00:31:26,424 --> 00:31:26,944
But they could.

639
00:31:27,184 --> 00:31:27,704
Well, they could,

640
00:31:27,764 --> 00:31:28,224
but they didn't.

641
00:31:28,244 --> 00:31:28,724
And they, well,

642
00:31:28,744 --> 00:31:29,344
they did twice.

643
00:31:29,464 --> 00:31:30,004
Well, that's true,

644
00:31:30,064 --> 00:31:30,584
but that was before,

645
00:31:30,744 --> 00:31:32,024
I mean, the treaties

646
00:31:32,024 --> 00:31:32,664
is what I'm saying.

647
00:31:32,684 --> 00:31:32,924
Yes.

648
00:31:33,664 --> 00:31:34,564
So I don't know.

649
00:31:34,624 --> 00:31:36,184
Yeah, it's totally possible.

650
00:31:36,284 --> 00:31:37,144
It's not clear which way.

651
00:31:37,144 --> 00:31:41,404
right also I mean look if you can't stop the distillation then the models can't I mean it

652
00:31:41,404 --> 00:31:45,544
looks pretty clear now that you can basically reverse engineer a frontier model into an open

653
00:31:45,544 --> 00:31:49,984
source model and so like if it's available anywhere it's basically going to be available

654
00:31:49,984 --> 00:31:55,444
everywhere right away so like I you know and then that you know you I what I hope is that if we start

655
00:31:55,444 --> 00:32:00,844
capping or segregating or regulating that we do it in a transparent way like what I I wrote a piece

656
00:32:00,844 --> 00:32:06,364
last month about this mythos thing where Commerce Department effectively called Anthropic on the

657
00:32:06,364 --> 00:32:08,904
and said, kill it under this authority.

658
00:32:09,084 --> 00:32:10,384
They never wrote a letter.

659
00:32:10,684 --> 00:32:12,744
They never published anything in the Federal Register.

660
00:32:13,184 --> 00:32:15,524
That was completely an appropriate way to do it,

661
00:32:15,544 --> 00:32:16,104
in my opinion.

662
00:32:16,664 --> 00:32:19,124
And it needs to be done under statute.

663
00:32:19,284 --> 00:32:20,684
There's gotta be a process or whatever,

664
00:32:20,744 --> 00:32:21,944
if they're gonna start doing this.

665
00:32:22,304 --> 00:32:25,044
Then it's gotta at least be done through law, right?

666
00:32:25,064 --> 00:32:27,344
It can't be like you get a call at night

667
00:32:27,344 --> 00:32:29,344
and says, cut off these users from your model.

668
00:32:29,504 --> 00:32:30,184
Like, that's crazy.

669
00:32:30,284 --> 00:32:32,604
But then, again, I totally agree.

670
00:32:32,764 --> 00:32:35,044
Just to get into the semantics of it,

671
00:32:35,044 --> 00:32:37,164
The hard thing about that is that they almost,

672
00:32:37,344 --> 00:32:38,884
like the anthropics and the open AIs of the world,

673
00:32:38,944 --> 00:32:41,404
almost have to submit their model to the government first,

674
00:32:41,464 --> 00:32:42,324
be like, is this okay?

675
00:32:42,324 --> 00:32:43,064
I don't like that.

676
00:32:43,324 --> 00:32:43,764
I agree.

677
00:32:43,884 --> 00:32:48,004
But I'm saying there's a decent probability that ends up happening.

678
00:32:48,164 --> 00:32:49,244
I mean, honestly-

679
00:32:49,244 --> 00:32:50,544
But is this not just where China wins then?

680
00:32:50,664 --> 00:32:53,384
Well, I mean, if they can catch up.

681
00:32:53,524 --> 00:32:54,204
I mean, no.

682
00:32:54,404 --> 00:32:55,284
I mean, I'm not sure.

683
00:32:55,424 --> 00:32:55,664
Maybe.

684
00:32:55,904 --> 00:32:56,884
I mean, China's giving it away.

685
00:32:57,164 --> 00:32:59,564
I think the strategy is so interesting here that they are,

686
00:33:00,464 --> 00:33:02,524
they're not trying to make their own frontier models

687
00:33:02,524 --> 00:33:04,864
or frontier labs for profit at the moment, I guess.

688
00:33:04,864 --> 00:33:08,244
I'm sure they're doing some private, you know, government type training somewhere.

689
00:33:08,444 --> 00:33:12,904
But like their strategy is just like flood the zone, like at least have everyone use ours.

690
00:33:12,964 --> 00:33:18,624
It reminds me of like this time I think Bill Gates was asked once if he was upset that there was all these people pirating windows in China.

691
00:33:18,664 --> 00:33:20,544
And he was like, I'm happy they're pirating ours and not the others.

692
00:33:20,724 --> 00:33:22,704
I'd rather have them use ours than the others.

693
00:33:22,764 --> 00:33:24,684
And I was like, I think that's kind of what China's saying here.

694
00:33:24,684 --> 00:33:29,364
Like, well, if we can't control it, we may as well have everyone use the one we're using.

695
00:33:29,364 --> 00:33:29,624
Right.

696
00:33:29,644 --> 00:33:33,984
And like and also simultaneously and then degrade the U.S. like advantage.

697
00:33:34,224 --> 00:33:34,464
Right.

698
00:33:34,464 --> 00:33:35,604
It degrades US advantage.

699
00:33:35,764 --> 00:33:36,964
It hits US markets.

700
00:33:37,064 --> 00:33:39,124
And at any point when they've got enough users,

701
00:33:39,164 --> 00:33:40,304
they can just make a closed source anyway.

702
00:33:40,664 --> 00:33:41,004
They could.

703
00:33:41,124 --> 00:33:43,564
They could or stop releasing new open source ones, right?

704
00:33:43,684 --> 00:33:46,364
I mean, so I don't know where that goes.

705
00:33:46,504 --> 00:33:48,124
I don't think, I hope it doesn't happen soon

706
00:33:48,124 --> 00:33:50,564
because I want to keep getting better intelligence.

707
00:33:50,744 --> 00:33:52,904
And yeah, I don't want you to be walking around.

708
00:33:53,204 --> 00:33:55,064
And by the way, there's way other more dystopian.

709
00:33:55,124 --> 00:33:57,184
They could start saying which models each person can use.

710
00:33:57,464 --> 00:33:58,664
So you'd be like, well, Danny, you know,

711
00:33:58,704 --> 00:34:00,224
you've only been in the United States for two weeks.

712
00:34:00,264 --> 00:34:01,704
So you only get access to like 4.0.

713
00:34:01,804 --> 00:34:02,984
You don't get access to 5.6.

714
00:34:03,244 --> 00:34:03,564
What?

715
00:34:03,564 --> 00:34:07,544
But they could do that type of stuff, which is another reason I like open source, by the way.

716
00:34:07,544 --> 00:34:13,724
And I run some open source models at home, just not like huge ones because I don't have a data center.

717
00:34:15,324 --> 00:34:17,944
So I don't know. That's going to get really, really exciting.

718
00:34:18,424 --> 00:34:21,004
Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin?

719
00:34:21,424 --> 00:34:22,184
Of course you do.

720
00:34:22,564 --> 00:34:24,504
Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can.

721
00:34:25,064 --> 00:34:30,584
Under section 168K of the US tax code, Bitcoin mining servers qualify for 100% bonus depreciation.

722
00:34:31,304 --> 00:34:35,124
This means every dollar you spend on miners can directly offset your income in a single year.

723
00:34:35,384 --> 00:34:37,884
And it's true for both business owners and W2 earners.

724
00:34:38,244 --> 00:34:45,164
So if you have $100,000 in ordinary income, you can purchase $100,000 in miners and potentially offset your tax liability entirely.

725
00:34:46,184 --> 00:34:48,344
Blockware's mining as a service does all the heavy lifting.

726
00:34:48,344 --> 00:34:52,444
They secure the rigs, they source the low-cost power, and they handle all the day-to-day maintenance.

727
00:34:52,924 --> 00:34:56,824
So you get to stack Bitcoin every single day while drastically shrinking your tax bill.

728
00:34:56,824 --> 00:35:00,944
Get started today at BlockwareSolutions.com forward slash WBD

729
00:35:00,944 --> 00:35:04,064
and use code WBD for $100 off your first miner.

730
00:35:04,064 --> 00:35:07,864
That's BlockwareSolutions.com forward slash WBD.

731
00:35:07,864 --> 00:35:09,384
You wouldn't reuse a Bitcoin address,

732
00:35:09,384 --> 00:35:12,824
so why does your phone broadcast the same identifier for life?

733
00:35:12,824 --> 00:35:18,304
Every SIM has a static ID and carriers, ad networks and bad actors all use it to track you.

734
00:35:18,304 --> 00:35:22,104
The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.

735
00:35:22,104 --> 00:35:24,664
CAPE is America's privacy first mobile carrier.

736
00:35:24,664 --> 00:35:28,364
Their identifier rotation feature changes your ID every 24 hours

737
00:35:28,364 --> 00:35:30,884
so you look like a different subscriber every single day.

738
00:35:31,524 --> 00:35:32,784
And SIM swaps are off the table.

739
00:35:33,184 --> 00:35:36,324
Your number can't move without a 24-word phrase that only you hold.

740
00:35:36,724 --> 00:35:39,684
There's also no name at sign up, no social security number,

741
00:35:39,804 --> 00:35:41,544
and there's no profile to build on you.

742
00:35:41,964 --> 00:35:43,404
If you're a Bitcoiner in America,

743
00:35:43,564 --> 00:35:45,704
I honestly don't know why you'd use any other network.

744
00:35:46,124 --> 00:35:48,884
You can head over to cape.co forward slash WBD

745
00:35:48,884 --> 00:35:52,604
and use the code WBD for 33% off your first six months.

746
00:35:52,604 --> 00:35:59,284
that's c-a-p-e dot co forward slash w-b-d if you're already self-custody bitcoin you know the

747
00:35:59,284 --> 00:36:03,904
deal with hardware wallets complex setups clumsy interfaces and a seed phrase that can be lost

748
00:36:03,904 --> 00:36:09,644
stolen or forgotten bitkey fixes that bitkey self-custody built for real life it gives you

749
00:36:09,644 --> 00:36:14,144
an intuitive easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat over and it has a strong recovery

750
00:36:14,144 --> 00:36:18,504
system and built-in inheritance for long-term peace of mind and bitkey's just had a massive

751
00:36:18,504 --> 00:36:38,260
The new device now has a screen so before you approve something you can check it on the Bitkey itself The transaction the address or any account changes It a big difference you not just trusting what on your phone you seeing it for yourself on the device it simple secure self without the stress go to bitkey today and use the code wbd to

752
00:36:38,260 --> 00:36:45,780
get 10 off the new bitkey that's bitkey.world and use the code wbd that's where another place that

753
00:36:45,780 --> 00:36:49,220
europe and the rest of the world are kind of messing up is that like what good models coming

754
00:36:49,220 --> 00:36:54,020
out europe i think there's one i don't even know what it's yeah i i don't know i don't know um and

755
00:36:54,020 --> 00:36:59,080
but also we have so much energy like right we yeah i think this one of the good things and i know

756
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:05,720
there's you know the beginnings of backlash on the populist front both left and the right against

757
00:37:05,720 --> 00:37:11,740
data centers 100 percent um but i also think partly through the bitcoin bitcoiners work right

758
00:37:11,740 --> 00:37:18,100
like troy and daniel like you talked about and others um there's a bit bigger realization now

759
00:37:18,100 --> 00:37:21,240
that we can't grow and be prosperous

760
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:23,520
with capping our energy use

761
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,460
and actually energy abundance is the way.

762
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,320
And by the way, things like wind and solar

763
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,600
are naturally good, important parts of the grid

764
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,520
and have grown a lot as well, right?

765
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,460
But you kind of need everything

766
00:37:35,460 --> 00:37:38,040
and you really need to run a growing

767
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,040
and balanced energy grid.

768
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,760
That's what it is, electrical grid.

769
00:37:41,940 --> 00:37:43,580
I think people flip-flop too hard

770
00:37:43,580 --> 00:37:44,320
on either side of that

771
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:45,940
where it's like either wind and solar

772
00:37:45,940 --> 00:37:47,780
is the only way you can do things

773
00:37:47,780 --> 00:37:49,500
or it's like evil to do it that way.

774
00:37:49,500 --> 00:37:51,400
It should just be like, the truth is everything.

775
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:52,840
Yeah, you need a bit of everything.

776
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,100
They all have different platform use cases.

777
00:37:55,380 --> 00:37:58,200
I think, I wish we had more nuclear energy in this country.

778
00:37:59,420 --> 00:38:01,260
I hope we get some like deregulation

779
00:38:01,260 --> 00:38:03,320
because I've been, apparently it takes like a decade

780
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,140
to even get a license and like no one's gotten one

781
00:38:05,140 --> 00:38:06,520
in like 40 years or something.

782
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,960
But nuclear is green and huge.

783
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:11,040
And baseload.

784
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,340
Yeah, and right, and it just goes forever.

785
00:38:13,340 --> 00:38:17,140
And also, I don't know, I wasn't alive then,

786
00:38:17,140 --> 00:38:20,540
but I'm presuming the use of nuclear weapons,

787
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:25,000
but then also like the partial thing at Three Mile Island

788
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,840
and then Fukushima and Chernobyl.

789
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:29,880
But if you really look at those,

790
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:31,760
you know, caused all this negativity about them.

791
00:38:31,820 --> 00:38:32,760
But if you actually look at those,

792
00:38:32,980 --> 00:38:34,880
like none of the, well, I mean,

793
00:38:34,940 --> 00:38:37,000
the nuclear weapons are actually totally unrelated.

794
00:38:37,740 --> 00:38:39,800
Although I get they both have the word nuclear in them.

795
00:38:40,540 --> 00:38:43,020
But Three Mile Island didn't melt down.

796
00:38:43,700 --> 00:38:45,960
Fukushima was, well, I guess the lesson is

797
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,060
don't build it right next to where a tidal wave could come.

798
00:38:48,140 --> 00:38:49,520
And I think only one person died.

799
00:38:49,660 --> 00:38:49,920
Right.

800
00:38:50,540 --> 00:38:54,360
The most amazing show I think we ever did on what Bitcoin did

801
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,160
when we were still doing it with Pete

802
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,340
was a guy called Anthony Jarrod.

803
00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,640
I don't know if you ever listened to that episode.

804
00:38:59,780 --> 00:39:00,140
I don't think so.

805
00:39:00,140 --> 00:39:00,940
We recorded it in Nashville.

806
00:39:01,180 --> 00:39:02,380
He was absolutely awesome.

807
00:39:02,540 --> 00:39:04,280
He used to work on nuclear submarines,

808
00:39:04,420 --> 00:39:05,840
like looking after the nuclear reactors.

809
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:06,240
Yeah.

810
00:39:06,500 --> 00:39:08,280
And we basically did an entire show

811
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,400
on like why nuclear is the safest form of energy.

812
00:39:10,860 --> 00:39:14,040
And anyone listening after the show,

813
00:39:14,100 --> 00:39:14,800
don't turn off now.

814
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,400
after this show, go and listen to that.

815
00:39:16,500 --> 00:39:17,820
Because he lays out all the stats

816
00:39:17,820 --> 00:39:18,920
and it is this,

817
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,160
I think the only safer form of energy was wind.

818
00:39:21,340 --> 00:39:21,540
Yeah.

819
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,040
Like by a very small amount.

820
00:39:23,140 --> 00:39:24,500
Like nuclear is incredibly safe,

821
00:39:24,660 --> 00:39:25,700
incredibly powerful,

822
00:39:26,180 --> 00:39:26,980
base load energy.

823
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:28,600
Like we need all the nuclear.

824
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:29,380
Wind is intermittent.

825
00:39:29,820 --> 00:39:31,060
And like also the,

826
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:32,260
have you seen the pictures,

827
00:39:32,860 --> 00:39:33,300
excuse me,

828
00:39:33,340 --> 00:39:35,740
of the like graveyards of dead blades.

829
00:39:35,740 --> 00:39:37,540
Like it creates a lot of like e-waste,

830
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:38,300
if we call it that,

831
00:39:38,340 --> 00:39:39,200
or whatever you want to call it.

832
00:39:39,500 --> 00:39:40,700
And then I was going to just say like,

833
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:42,720
you know, Fukushima was hit by a tidal wave.

834
00:39:42,720 --> 00:39:45,420
if it wasn't actually the cause of the reactor.

835
00:39:45,980 --> 00:39:48,140
And Chernobyl is just obviously Soviet mismanagement.

836
00:39:48,260 --> 00:39:51,060
So there's actually no example of a nuclear plant

837
00:39:51,060 --> 00:39:53,620
just like being dangerous, right?

838
00:39:53,740 --> 00:39:56,540
Like, so I hope we have more of that too soon, you know?

839
00:39:56,660 --> 00:39:57,040
I think it's good.

840
00:39:57,140 --> 00:39:58,320
They're building a new one in the UK.

841
00:39:58,440 --> 00:39:59,220
It's meant to open next year.

842
00:39:59,380 --> 00:40:00,220
Like, we need more.

843
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:00,740
That's good.

844
00:40:00,860 --> 00:40:01,020
More.

845
00:40:01,180 --> 00:40:01,440
I know.

846
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,180
Well, New York closed one, and now they're like,

847
00:40:03,620 --> 00:40:05,180
you know, Mayor Mamdani's like,

848
00:40:05,240 --> 00:40:06,400
please keep it at 78.

849
00:40:06,620 --> 00:40:08,660
Like, that's not abundance.

850
00:40:09,060 --> 00:40:09,860
Like, that's...

851
00:40:09,860 --> 00:40:12,420
Yeah, you shouldn't be living in the biggest city in the world.

852
00:40:12,420 --> 00:40:14,300
like the world's greatest city.

853
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,860
You should have the accessibility to electricity.

854
00:40:17,100 --> 00:40:18,080
Have it as cold as you want.

855
00:40:18,340 --> 00:40:19,260
That's what I think.

856
00:40:19,340 --> 00:40:19,860
That's what I think.

857
00:40:19,940 --> 00:40:20,520
Cheers to that.

858
00:40:21,300 --> 00:40:22,600
Can we go way back?

859
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:23,660
Because you said something before that

860
00:40:23,660 --> 00:40:25,220
we're meaning to come back to.

861
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:26,920
We were talking about Bitcoin cycles.

862
00:40:28,260 --> 00:40:30,800
You said like last cycle, kind of disappointing.

863
00:40:31,020 --> 00:40:33,480
Like 2021, everyone was talking about 300K Bitcoin.

864
00:40:33,660 --> 00:40:34,860
We got 60K Bitcoin.

865
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,300
This time everyone's talking about a million dollar Bitcoin

866
00:40:37,300 --> 00:40:38,860
or at least like 300K Bitcoin.

867
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:40,840
Well, like Samson was talking about a million dollar Bitcoin.

868
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,940
But I think even if you sort of polled most Bitcoiners,

869
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:45,720
126 was not going to be the top.

870
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:47,400
No, that was lower.

871
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,320
But the interesting thing was, in 2017,

872
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:50,660
I was much newer to Bitcoin,

873
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,420
so I could have some of my history wrong here.

874
00:40:54,340 --> 00:40:56,140
20K, I think, surprised everyone.

875
00:40:56,380 --> 00:40:56,480
Yeah.

876
00:40:57,500 --> 00:41:00,200
Why, like, obviously diminishing returns, but why?

877
00:41:00,420 --> 00:41:02,900
Like, do you think we'll ever get those increases

878
00:41:02,900 --> 00:41:04,660
that people aren't necessarily expecting?

879
00:41:04,700 --> 00:41:06,760
There's like, some people say that there could be like an S

880
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,800
where it's like, yeah, it levels up here,

881
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:10,520
and then it goes like that again.

882
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:11,360
one day.

883
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,400
The euphoria when it got to 20K,

884
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:14,800
I remember being absolutely insane.

885
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,340
Well, it 10 bagged in like,

886
00:41:17,340 --> 00:41:20,220
it went from 2K to 20K in about four or five months,

887
00:41:20,220 --> 00:41:21,180
or like six months.

888
00:41:21,180 --> 00:41:22,000
So that was one thing.

889
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,860
In fact, actually, if I recall,

890
00:41:23,860 --> 00:41:26,100
on Labor Day weekend in 2021,

891
00:41:26,100 --> 00:41:28,560
it crashed below 2K, I think.

892
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:29,640
It might be below 3K.

893
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:30,640
Wait, 2020?

894
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:31,800
Sorry, sorry, 2017.

895
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:32,640
Yeah, okay.

896
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:33,480
2017.

897
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:34,940
And yes, thank you.

898
00:41:34,940 --> 00:41:37,920
So Labor Day 2021, I think it crashed like over,

899
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:39,960
I remember I was on a ferry somewhere and we're like,

900
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:46,297
my God, it's tanking, right? And then just like December 17th, I think is the top at 20,000.

901
00:41:46,537 --> 00:41:52,477
It's just that like, it was so classically parabolic, right? And it had been, you know,

902
00:41:52,557 --> 00:42:00,517
300 just a year prior, three to 600 in 2016. And also it was the first time that like,

903
00:42:00,517 --> 00:42:05,377
it truly ran to a level that made it like a genuine relevant asset globally.

904
00:42:05,377 --> 00:42:10,677
Exactly. And I always think of 2017 as that was the era where Bitcoin became a household name.

905
00:42:10,797 --> 00:42:10,957
Right.

906
00:42:11,037 --> 00:42:13,117
Like everyone didn't understand Bitcoin, but everyone had heard of Bitcoin.

907
00:42:13,117 --> 00:42:17,577
That's why I don't like when people use the Google trends for Bitcoin, like looking up the term Bitcoin.

908
00:42:17,577 --> 00:42:21,177
Like who is in 2026? I'm looking at you, camera.

909
00:42:21,297 --> 00:42:24,577
Who in 2026 is Googling the word Bitcoin?

910
00:42:25,117 --> 00:42:26,737
It's like Google Bitcoin, right?

911
00:42:26,817 --> 00:42:28,397
Like everybody already knows what it is.

912
00:42:28,957 --> 00:42:33,517
You're more likely to type in Bitcoin in your brokerage account and see what the price is

913
00:42:33,517 --> 00:42:36,537
or on a trading app or type in Michael Saylor.

914
00:42:36,897 --> 00:42:39,257
There's still other stuff to learn about, right?

915
00:42:39,297 --> 00:42:39,957
But I don't know who.

916
00:42:41,217 --> 00:42:42,037
So I know I agree.

917
00:42:42,157 --> 00:42:44,297
I think, look, I think the diminution returns,

918
00:42:44,917 --> 00:42:45,997
I think it's a bigger,

919
00:42:46,517 --> 00:42:47,577
there's a lot of debate about this.

920
00:42:47,637 --> 00:42:49,817
I know like Jeff Park totally disagrees with this idea

921
00:42:49,817 --> 00:42:50,897
that like the bigger the asset,

922
00:42:51,017 --> 00:42:54,397
the more it takes to move it.

923
00:42:54,457 --> 00:42:55,457
But it's all marginal, isn't it?

924
00:42:55,757 --> 00:42:57,077
Yeah, I think it's just all marginal.

925
00:42:57,257 --> 00:43:00,137
I think like, look, you just had a lot of,

926
00:43:00,717 --> 00:43:03,017
look, we got the support from the Trump administration

927
00:43:03,017 --> 00:43:08,537
and the candidate Trump, that also means like half the people didn't like it, right? Like it hasn't,

928
00:43:08,537 --> 00:43:15,977
I did see a video of Stephen Miller talking about debanking like certain types of, I don't know if,

929
00:43:15,977 --> 00:43:20,537
I didn't, I don't want to mischaracterize, illegal aliens or whatever. And I was like, you know,

930
00:43:20,537 --> 00:43:25,737
you could, I think Bitcoin is definitely apolitical tech and you could see the other side

931
00:43:25,737 --> 00:43:31,817
one day decide they need the censorship resistant store of value features, you know, and maybe the

932
00:43:31,817 --> 00:43:40,137
resumption of uh higher growth rates in price is correlated to when both sides say they need it

933
00:43:40,137 --> 00:43:45,817
yeah so there's definitely been um like a stratification of the ownership i think i mean

934
00:43:45,817 --> 00:43:50,297
i had people tell me that they older investors they didn't want to buy it till they till they

935
00:43:50,297 --> 00:43:54,697
heard trump say he liked it that's what made them look at it i mean so it's like and you can imagine

936
00:43:54,697 --> 00:44:00,297
it was the reverse for other people right so um i think you know when people truly need it it still

937
00:44:00,297 --> 00:44:03,357
We know people all over the world who need it,

938
00:44:03,637 --> 00:44:04,597
truly need it, right?

939
00:44:04,937 --> 00:44:07,057
But in America, I have pretty good access

940
00:44:07,057 --> 00:44:08,977
to financial services and assets

941
00:44:08,977 --> 00:44:12,957
that can be used for store of value or hedging or risk, right?

942
00:44:14,077 --> 00:44:15,777
But that may not always be true.

943
00:44:15,957 --> 00:44:19,437
And I think you'll see more people decide

944
00:44:19,437 --> 00:44:20,657
they actually need and want it.

945
00:44:21,237 --> 00:44:23,957
Yeah, I think the idea of financial privacy

946
00:44:23,957 --> 00:44:26,477
is definitely not just a left-wing idea,

947
00:44:26,557 --> 00:44:28,057
but it feels like a pretty left-wing idea.

948
00:44:28,277 --> 00:44:28,557
Yeah.

949
00:44:28,557 --> 00:44:31,037
These are the people that should care about it.

950
00:44:31,077 --> 00:44:33,137
And I do worry that the Trump administration

951
00:44:33,137 --> 00:44:35,297
have put off that whole part of the-

952
00:44:35,297 --> 00:44:37,917
Yeah, but it's all cyclical.

953
00:44:38,137 --> 00:44:39,857
It's all ebbs and flows, right?

954
00:44:39,957 --> 00:44:42,477
Like Bitcoin, none of this is Bitcoin's fault, right?

955
00:44:42,577 --> 00:44:43,877
Like Bitcoin's just chugging along.

956
00:44:43,877 --> 00:44:44,477
Bitcoin's just Bitcoin.

957
00:44:44,537 --> 00:44:46,057
It's a cryptographic signature machine

958
00:44:46,057 --> 00:44:47,677
decentralized with hashing, right?

959
00:44:47,977 --> 00:44:49,077
And that's just a thing.

960
00:44:49,977 --> 00:44:51,997
It's all just narratives that we put on it.

961
00:44:52,217 --> 00:44:54,057
And those narratives have evolved

962
00:44:54,057 --> 00:44:55,497
and pivoted so many times.

963
00:44:55,957 --> 00:44:57,697
Not by design.

964
00:44:57,697 --> 00:45:00,697
just in culture and by markets.

965
00:45:01,757 --> 00:45:02,617
And so I think you'll get,

966
00:45:02,617 --> 00:45:04,537
I think there probably will be

967
00:45:04,537 --> 00:45:06,517
a left-wing Bitcoin movement one day

968
00:45:06,517 --> 00:45:07,157
for all we know.

969
00:45:07,297 --> 00:45:08,017
It's useful.

970
00:45:08,457 --> 00:45:09,717
I mean, people have definitely tried.

971
00:45:10,797 --> 00:45:11,597
Progressive Bitcoin.

972
00:45:12,137 --> 00:45:12,357
Yeah, Trey.

973
00:45:12,677 --> 00:45:12,957
Yeah, yeah.

974
00:45:12,957 --> 00:45:13,717
What's Trey's second name?

975
00:45:13,777 --> 00:45:14,017
I've forgotten.

976
00:45:14,557 --> 00:45:15,277
I don't know.

977
00:45:15,517 --> 00:45:15,697
Yeah.

978
00:45:16,837 --> 00:45:19,657
But there's Trey, there's Jason Meyer.

979
00:45:19,917 --> 00:45:21,357
These people have been pushing it.

980
00:45:21,697 --> 00:45:23,577
One of the problems I've always had with that idea

981
00:45:23,577 --> 00:45:26,577
is that stop putting either side on it.

982
00:45:26,577 --> 00:45:43,577
Yeah, I mean, I absolutely agree. I don't think the, I haven't thought that the Trump administration or Republicans, frankly, have genuinely made the case that Bitcoin is a conservatives asset.

983
00:45:44,137 --> 00:45:55,017
They've mostly made the case that it's a good asset and American dominance is good. And we do a lot of Bitcoin in America. So that's why we like it. And I think that's true. That's not really that political to me.

984
00:45:55,017 --> 00:45:57,577
I think it's more just the fact that they like it

985
00:45:57,577 --> 00:45:59,697
that has turned off some of the left.

986
00:46:00,057 --> 00:46:02,337
So same question with Saylor, with Trump.

987
00:46:02,497 --> 00:46:04,077
Do you think Bitcoin would be higher or lower

988
00:46:04,077 --> 00:46:05,557
without Trump ever having endorsed it?

989
00:46:06,277 --> 00:46:08,637
Oh my, that is a tough one.

990
00:46:08,757 --> 00:46:10,317
I think it would probably be lower.

991
00:46:10,657 --> 00:46:11,037
Do you think?

992
00:46:11,097 --> 00:46:12,577
I don't know if it would be lower at this exact moment,

993
00:46:12,717 --> 00:46:14,837
but I don't think it, yeah, I do.

994
00:46:14,997 --> 00:46:15,597
It's tough.

995
00:46:15,837 --> 00:46:16,877
That's also tough.

996
00:46:16,957 --> 00:46:18,897
This is like real fencing for me,

997
00:46:18,977 --> 00:46:21,697
but like with both cases, I almost think just the same.

998
00:46:22,037 --> 00:46:22,397
Like-

999
00:46:22,397 --> 00:46:24,657
Yeah, you ask the question and then say unchanged.

1000
00:46:24,657 --> 00:46:29,277
yeah i mean i yeah it's tough to know i mean look the last year there was definitely some

1001
00:46:29,277 --> 00:46:34,477
um competition for interest in bitcoin from like alt coins and of course yeah the president's been

1002
00:46:34,477 --> 00:46:40,817
involved in those and i think um i don't know i don't know i genuinely don't know but i i have to

1003
00:46:40,817 --> 00:46:46,957
say like you saw the rally i mean i would say no it wouldn't be higher without i mean look at the

1004
00:46:46,957 --> 00:47:00,453
rally that took us from 60 to 100 directly in response to him doing that I mean counterfactuals are impossible to know but they are interesting And this is like why I both respect the idea

1005
00:47:00,453 --> 00:47:01,673
of like the digital gold narrative.

1006
00:47:01,833 --> 00:47:02,753
Also, I don't like it.

1007
00:47:02,793 --> 00:47:03,613
I think it's too simplistic.

1008
00:47:03,833 --> 00:47:04,953
But if you're trying to explain Bitcoin

1009
00:47:04,953 --> 00:47:06,953
to maybe an older generation

1010
00:47:06,953 --> 00:47:08,813
who are less like technically inclined,

1011
00:47:08,933 --> 00:47:10,573
like it is a really easy way of explaining it.

1012
00:47:10,573 --> 00:47:15,193
I think I just like it as money that I can control myself.

1013
00:47:15,193 --> 00:47:21,913
that is it is substantially more private than say the z cashers will admit right if you use it

1014
00:47:21,913 --> 00:47:27,513
properly it's very private like and also um and it can't be taken away and it's like what am i

1015
00:47:27,513 --> 00:47:32,153
gonna it's i mean that's why like one way to think about it and i agree it's too simplistic it is

1016
00:47:32,153 --> 00:47:38,313
also a lot of other things and and can be used a lot of other ways but like um if you're gonna if

1017
00:47:38,313 --> 00:47:42,953
you have assets that you like to possess yourself you should have bitcoin yeah because like it is

1018
00:47:42,953 --> 00:47:46,873
money that they can't take from you it is money that you can send anywhere in the world at any

1019
00:47:46,873 --> 00:47:51,753
time now can you do that with eth technically yes of course but it doesn't have the same other

1020
00:47:51,753 --> 00:47:56,793
monetary properties that bitcoin has that you may want um can you do that with stable coins no you

1021
00:47:56,793 --> 00:48:01,513
can't stable coins are great for like paying vendors or sending money across the border you

1022
00:48:01,513 --> 00:48:05,593
get the base exactly the same rate well and first of all you get to base at the same rate so if you're

1023
00:48:05,593 --> 00:48:11,353
trying to diversify away from like a dollar then those offer you nothing but also they're freezable

1024
00:48:11,353 --> 00:48:17,913
right it is not immutable the way bitcoin is um that's okay i don't pay with the hardest money

1025
00:48:17,913 --> 00:48:22,313
immutable money every time we didn't buy this beer with bitcoin today i could here

1026
00:48:23,033 --> 00:48:29,353
shout out pokey right but like other things i absolutely might certainly storing value over

1027
00:48:29,353 --> 00:48:34,473
time for a long time is one where i don't want i want to know that it's locked away and there's

1028
00:48:34,473 --> 00:48:40,473
nothing anyone can do to get it right um this is one reason why we work on quantum a little bit as

1029
00:48:40,473 --> 00:48:48,713
well. Like we just announced recently the Galaxy Quantum Readiness Initiative, where we're pledging

1030
00:48:48,713 --> 00:48:53,373
up to $5 million in grants to open source developers who work on post-quantum cryptography,

1031
00:48:54,093 --> 00:48:57,413
review code, like write BIPs, you know, whatever, all that stuff.

1032
00:48:59,033 --> 00:49:04,773
And I think by the time this comes out, it'll be public as well, that a consortium has formed,

1033
00:49:04,773 --> 00:49:11,233
the Bitcoin security consortium with Anchorage, ARK, BlackRock, Coinbase, Galaxy, Strategy,

1034
00:49:12,093 --> 00:49:18,293
Blockstream, and Block, I believe, all of us pledging money to help fund development of Bitcoin

1035
00:49:18,293 --> 00:49:24,253
preparedness. That's awesome. It's because, though, if that were to emerge,

1036
00:49:24,393 --> 00:49:30,713
it could threaten my ability to store my Bitcoin. And so we don't want to control Bitcoin development

1037
00:49:30,713 --> 00:49:35,213
at all. I mean, I'm doing, we're doing classic. I think we're working with Brink to help advise us

1038
00:49:35,213 --> 00:49:40,173
on how to do grants properly, right? And stuff like that. So like, we are not trying to control

1039
00:49:40,173 --> 00:49:44,173
Bitcoin at all. We're trying to make sure it's funded. Yeah. We want people, I mean, the other

1040
00:49:44,173 --> 00:49:49,433
altcoin ecosystems are funding this. They have pre-mines and from ICOs and whatever,

1041
00:49:49,833 --> 00:49:54,173
and foundations that are all funding this. And the president just signed two executive orders

1042
00:49:54,173 --> 00:49:59,893
pulling forward. Like it's, even if it's a low, you know, I did this, I hosted that debate at the,

1043
00:49:59,893 --> 00:50:06,253
in Vegas. It was like, you know, like James O'Byrne's a big skeptic and I love James.

1044
00:50:06,253 --> 00:50:10,313
I like James. He's very smart and great guy. And it's totally fine. But I actually think we

1045
00:50:10,313 --> 00:50:16,193
reached a decent agreement that, well, like even, you know what, even if it's BS, you know,

1046
00:50:16,293 --> 00:50:20,873
there's no quantum computer that's ever publicly been shown to factor a number, I think, bigger

1047
00:50:20,873 --> 00:50:26,873
than 21. Yeah. Which is ironic. Interesting. Do you know when that was? When? 2012. Yeah.

1048
00:50:26,873 --> 00:50:28,313
So it's been a long time.

1049
00:50:28,413 --> 00:50:29,873
Well, they could be being built in secret.

1050
00:50:30,053 --> 00:50:35,413
And I think there was the Google paper from, I think, literally like March 31st or like

1051
00:50:35,413 --> 00:50:36,413
March, April of this year.

1052
00:50:36,993 --> 00:50:37,433
Right.

1053
00:50:37,473 --> 00:50:42,573
They actually provided a ZK proof that they had proven the math they did.

1054
00:50:43,233 --> 00:50:48,773
That was a ZK proof that they, for like an algorithm, not necessarily they could actually

1055
00:50:48,773 --> 00:50:49,093
do it.

1056
00:50:49,093 --> 00:50:49,473
Not hardware.

1057
00:50:49,673 --> 00:50:49,773
Yeah.

1058
00:50:49,853 --> 00:50:51,613
There is no computer that can do it today.

1059
00:50:52,133 --> 00:50:55,773
But they've proven that the math circuitry is actually a lot simpler.

1060
00:50:55,773 --> 00:50:58,733
The computer effectively can be a lot smaller than previously thought.

1061
00:50:58,733 --> 00:51:01,253
And that keeps happening on the math and software side.

1062
00:51:02,313 --> 00:51:12,273
And I think that panel, though, even with the Bitcoin, the very public skeptics, we did all kind of agree that, like, listen, classical cryptography that works for decades can eventually be broken.

1063
00:51:12,413 --> 00:51:12,673
Totally.

1064
00:51:12,833 --> 00:51:15,393
Like, funding and building new cryptography.

1065
00:51:16,133 --> 00:51:16,633
Yeah, exactly.

1066
00:51:16,733 --> 00:51:17,553
Exactly with AI.

1067
00:51:17,753 --> 00:51:24,633
So, like, but funding and testing and battle testing new, like, secure cryptography is a good thing.

1068
00:51:24,633 --> 00:51:29,393
and we've added new cryptography before to bitcoin like the schnor yeah right and so like

1069
00:51:29,393 --> 00:51:33,813
that's that you know we're not trying to force anything i think one of the things people are

1070
00:51:33,813 --> 00:51:38,713
afraid of when people talk about quantum is that like oh we're gonna like rush and like squeeze

1071
00:51:38,713 --> 00:51:43,053
something in and like then there's gonna be a bug we're all worried about that the groups that i just

1072
00:51:43,053 --> 00:51:49,333
told you um they all love bitcoin they all own tons of bitcoin we don't want it to fail like

1073
00:51:49,333 --> 00:51:52,513
Someone should be, and this is what Satoshi said.

1074
00:51:52,513 --> 00:51:56,173
He wrote about how when development needs funding,

1075
00:51:56,173 --> 00:51:58,253
he hopes that the business is built around it,

1076
00:51:58,253 --> 00:52:10,409
that profit from it will fund it right Like that this And here we are I mean if all we get from this is like more advanced cryptography nothing ever happens That great And Galaxy and Coinbase foot the bill Awesome Exactly That what I saying

1077
00:52:10,509 --> 00:52:12,629
Like, honestly, it's what I absolutely think.

1078
00:52:13,049 --> 00:52:17,989
And I think, so that one's another thing is this Noah Doe case in New York.

1079
00:52:18,089 --> 00:52:19,209
Oh, dude, we need to talk about this.

1080
00:52:19,229 --> 00:52:21,429
So I heard about this in Oslo.

1081
00:52:21,489 --> 00:52:23,369
I was talking to Thomas and he told me a little bit about it,

1082
00:52:23,709 --> 00:52:25,269
but it was a very little bit.

1083
00:52:25,289 --> 00:52:26,289
I don't know very much at all.

1084
00:52:26,289 --> 00:52:28,069
So you should lay this out from the ground up.

1085
00:52:28,069 --> 00:52:46,209
So last year, there were last summer, basically, all these addresses, I think about 39,000 Bitcoin addresses were sent a message, a dust with like in an op return, basically, in an op return saying like this address is abandoned.

1086
00:52:46,209 --> 00:52:57,669
And if you don't like prove that it's not abandoned in a certain amount of time, then you're then we're going to deem that we have found them or I think take constructive possession of them.

1087
00:52:58,069 --> 00:52:59,309
We wrote a big report about that.

1088
00:52:59,789 --> 00:53:03,809
And then in the report, we speculated that it was possible,

1089
00:53:03,969 --> 00:53:06,189
one possible reason these might be being sent,

1090
00:53:06,789 --> 00:53:13,289
is that whoever is behind the dusting might want to use this

1091
00:53:13,289 --> 00:53:18,629
to lay the foundation for a legal case to try to claim legal title,

1092
00:53:18,629 --> 00:53:21,829
legal ownership, not private key ownership, legal ownership,

1093
00:53:22,029 --> 00:53:24,649
over these addresses under abandoned property laws.

1094
00:53:25,089 --> 00:53:26,769
That is what ended up happening.

1095
00:53:26,769 --> 00:53:30,229
And this anonymous plaintiff, that's why we call him Noah Doe.

1096
00:53:30,289 --> 00:53:33,749
That's what he's called in the, they're called in the court documents.

1097
00:53:33,889 --> 00:53:35,409
And we don't know who it is.

1098
00:53:35,489 --> 00:53:37,689
And we're certainly not trying to find out, right?

1099
00:53:37,729 --> 00:53:39,469
That's the court's business.

1100
00:53:39,569 --> 00:53:42,849
In New York State, filed this case against the addresses.

1101
00:53:43,409 --> 00:53:48,129
And they're arguing that, you know, without going into like every little part of the argument,

1102
00:53:48,189 --> 00:53:50,709
but I have a whole report explains everything that they're arguing.

1103
00:53:50,709 --> 00:53:57,269
and I disagree with a lot of their facts and analysis in that report.

1104
00:53:58,089 --> 00:54:00,369
They're basically saying, we found these coins.

1105
00:54:00,709 --> 00:54:02,769
We should be given legal title over them.

1106
00:54:03,469 --> 00:54:07,109
And now, that's not a way that they can come in and get my keys.

1107
00:54:07,349 --> 00:54:08,989
Everyone's like, oh, my God, but they can't do the keys.

1108
00:54:09,029 --> 00:54:09,449
That doesn't matter.

1109
00:54:09,549 --> 00:54:11,349
I'm like, obviously, they can't get the keys.

1110
00:54:11,769 --> 00:54:16,429
No court can order an unnamed anonymous person to give up their keys.

1111
00:54:16,569 --> 00:54:18,589
It's not going to, I mean, they can try, but it won't do anything.

1112
00:54:18,709 --> 00:54:19,429
We all know that.

1113
00:54:19,429 --> 00:54:25,729
but they let's say that like anyone regardless whether there's noah do or whatever is under this

1114
00:54:25,729 --> 00:54:31,549
theory is granted ownership legally over some dormant coins and then let's say those are my

1115
00:54:31,549 --> 00:54:36,589
coins and i go and send them to an exchange they instantly like serve the exchange with the legal

1116
00:54:36,589 --> 00:54:42,649
order right it's cool and now it's all a mumbo jumbo and like you have to think depending on the

1117
00:54:42,649 --> 00:54:46,729
quality of their order that if they're my coins i'll i'm gonna have to have lawyers you know if i

1118
00:54:46,729 --> 00:54:50,869
send them to Coinbase. Coinbase would probably have to like get a bunch of lawyers and stuff.

1119
00:54:50,929 --> 00:54:55,289
It's like, it's lawfare, right? And it could be substantial. And by the way,

1120
00:54:56,329 --> 00:55:01,609
substantively, all of the coins that are hypothesized to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto

1121
00:55:01,609 --> 00:55:07,009
are in that case. So they're trying to get legal title over Satoshi's coins as well.

1122
00:55:07,529 --> 00:55:14,629
So like this case, like now it's a, it is a very clever case for one. They don't know who any of

1123
00:55:14,629 --> 00:55:20,129
the holders are. So they're all named as John Doe 1 through like 39,000. And so-

1124
00:55:20,129 --> 00:55:20,789
Who's going to defend it?

1125
00:55:20,809 --> 00:55:25,889
And they did dust the addresses again with like a notice of service. But like, I don't

1126
00:55:25,889 --> 00:55:28,249
know if you've used OpRatured ever, like-

1127
00:55:28,249 --> 00:55:28,509
Never.

1128
00:55:28,569 --> 00:55:30,629
Or seen it. Have you ever seen it in a wallet?

1129
00:55:30,629 --> 00:55:31,609
I've never, I don't think I've ever seen it.

1130
00:55:31,609 --> 00:55:36,609
Well, you probably haven't because the default for Bitcoin wallets is to just suppress dust

1131
00:55:36,609 --> 00:55:42,069
and not even show you dust, you TXOs that have OpRatured. Because it's spam. It happens

1132
00:55:42,069 --> 00:55:46,849
all the time i get it sometimes in my in my cold storage it'll be like like trade on the use this

1133
00:55:46,849 --> 00:55:52,149
mining pool like it's literally people advertise and operaturn all the time right yeah exactly no

1134
00:55:52,149 --> 00:55:59,649
um no let's not do that come on man i know um i know it's what everyone it's like all my bitcoin

1135
00:55:59,649 --> 00:56:04,689
feed is still bit 110 we're not doing we're not going there so like the super interesting there is

1136
00:56:04,689 --> 00:56:10,269
so for one obviously they've hit satoshi's coins but then we know that there's like three to four

1137
00:56:10,269 --> 00:56:15,409
million coins that are basically presumed lost, right? So I imagine they've hit all of those.

1138
00:56:15,629 --> 00:56:19,889
Yeah. I mean, they hit coins that were like five years or more dormant or seven. I can't remember.

1139
00:56:19,969 --> 00:56:24,869
I mean, they hit a lot of coins. And many have moved since. Like many, many are, they hit

1140
00:56:24,869 --> 00:56:28,769
Casatius coins. So there's a chance that they could have like hit my coins. I probably got a

1141
00:56:28,769 --> 00:56:31,969
coin that's not moved in five years. We could make a, we have all the addresses because we tracked

1142
00:56:31,969 --> 00:56:37,329
both in the dusting and the case. We actually won an award. Our authors, Will Owens and Zach

1143
00:56:37,329 --> 00:56:41,589
of corny, won like the best crypto research of the year from the Association of Crypto

1144
00:56:41,589 --> 00:56:45,189
Researchers and Journalists or Journalists and Researchers for their report about the

1145
00:56:45,189 --> 00:56:45,609
dusting.

1146
00:56:45,609 --> 00:56:49,609
But the super interesting there is like, obviously completely messed up.

1147
00:56:49,689 --> 00:56:52,549
If anyone ever moves Bitcoin to an exchange, like subpoenas might happen, whatever.

1148
00:56:52,749 --> 00:56:52,989
Exactly.

1149
00:56:53,429 --> 00:56:58,409
Also, if quantum ever is a real thing, that becomes a real mess because like a quantum

1150
00:56:58,409 --> 00:57:00,589
hacker steals the coins while that now is a legal case.

1151
00:57:01,209 --> 00:57:01,689
100%.

1152
00:57:01,689 --> 00:57:03,009
What a mess.

1153
00:57:03,129 --> 00:57:03,389
Yes.

1154
00:57:03,389 --> 00:57:08,749
This is like the type of, I mean, this is the saga.

1155
00:57:09,009 --> 00:57:27,966
It a very clever and interesting and annoying issue right I mean we but like I would say in the case like one of the other things not only might you not even know you named in the case and therefore not be able to appear as a defendant to defend yourself And I will say they have removed some addresses during the case that

1156
00:57:27,966 --> 00:57:33,106
have subsequently moved on chain, right? So they've been saying, if these are definitively not

1157
00:57:33,106 --> 00:57:38,546
lost, then we will remove them. But again, you would have to de-anonymize yourself and, right,

1158
00:57:38,546 --> 00:57:53,326
And know about it. Now, one John Doe, 33, has filed with the court. He has asked for anonymity. I haven't seen yet whether the court has answered this. He is answering and he substantively wrote and his like literal only identifying information he's providing at the moment.

1159
00:57:53,326 --> 00:57:58,706
So it's not even technically clear to me that he does own the Coens that John Doe 33 owns.

1160
00:57:58,826 --> 00:58:03,386
Like, I didn't see that he submitted like a cryptographic proof or anything or signed message.

1161
00:58:04,346 --> 00:58:11,306
But he is only identifying information like John Doe 33 NY at Proton, like privacymail.com or whatever.

1162
00:58:11,746 --> 00:58:18,906
So like some, but again, it's clever because there's nobody in the case to explain to the judge, like, why the case is flawed.

1163
00:58:18,906 --> 00:58:21,306
because the plaintiffs are,

1164
00:58:21,766 --> 00:58:23,586
they were granted anonymity by the court

1165
00:58:23,586 --> 00:58:25,246
because they're like, we're back corner, blah, blah.

1166
00:58:25,346 --> 00:58:26,186
And like, you know, it's dangerous.

1167
00:58:26,626 --> 00:58:29,006
They had an expert who explained,

1168
00:58:29,506 --> 00:58:31,546
an expert witness who explained to the court

1169
00:58:31,546 --> 00:58:34,086
like how $5 wrench attacks are a problem

1170
00:58:34,086 --> 00:58:34,866
and kidnappings or whatever.

1171
00:58:35,726 --> 00:58:40,546
And so one of the efforts has been to get people,

1172
00:58:40,786 --> 00:58:43,466
that I've seen happen is people filing amicus briefs,

1173
00:58:43,466 --> 00:58:46,086
trying to be admitted into the case

1174
00:58:46,086 --> 00:58:47,266
as a friend of the court,

1175
00:58:47,266 --> 00:58:49,026
to help advise the court on the case.

1176
00:58:49,386 --> 00:58:50,866
So one guy, they did an event here.

1177
00:58:50,866 --> 00:58:52,866
It was by BTC lawyer guy, Ian Cohen.

1178
00:58:52,986 --> 00:58:56,826
He filed one saying, I'm a Bitcoiner and this harms me

1179
00:58:56,826 --> 00:58:58,746
and this case is bad and for these reasons.

1180
00:58:59,406 --> 00:59:02,766
And he had a hearing a couple of weeks ago in New York

1181
00:59:02,766 --> 00:59:06,806
and the judge denied him entry into the case as amicus.

1182
00:59:07,946 --> 00:59:11,426
But the digital chamber, one of the big crypto trades,

1183
00:59:11,566 --> 00:59:13,046
has filed also an amicus.

1184
00:59:13,046 --> 00:59:21,906
and they have they're using like substantially major white shoe lawyers like really good

1185
00:59:21,906 --> 00:59:27,526
they've got legit team oh yeah and and part of what the denial said to ian was that like it's

1186
00:59:27,526 --> 00:59:32,366
not clear that you like substantively represent the public interest but like digital chamber i

1187
00:59:32,366 --> 00:59:36,786
don't know how many members they've got but like you know dozens and dozens and they've got very

1188
00:59:36,786 --> 00:59:43,546
prominent former prosecutor as their lawyer, right? And then also our friends at the Bitcoin

1189
00:59:43,546 --> 00:59:49,066
Policy Institute have filed a different intervention. So not as an amicus. They are

1190
00:59:49,066 --> 00:59:54,586
pleading to become an intervener defendant. Don't even know what that is, but it's different than

1191
00:59:54,586 --> 00:59:58,906
just a friend of the court. Somehow they want to be made a defendant by the court. So then they can

1192
00:59:58,906 --> 01:00:04,026
directly challenge. I'm not sure. I'm not a lawyer. They also have a top tier law firm and there'll be

1193
01:00:04,026 --> 01:00:09,666
a hearing in the Noah Doe case, I think on September 8th in New York to hear both of those,

1194
01:00:10,186 --> 01:00:17,406
both from Digital Chamber and from BPI. So the Bitcoin community, both in Digital Chamber, BPI,

1195
01:00:18,026 --> 01:00:24,026
have stepped up to try to intervene in the case. And at a minimum, I think just put on the record

1196
01:00:24,026 --> 01:00:31,206
the arguments against what Noah Doe's side is arguing. So what happens then? So this goes to

1197
01:00:31,206 --> 01:00:36,746
court properly in September. Is it the kind of thing where as soon as the judge has the relevant

1198
01:00:36,746 --> 01:00:41,746
information from people like BPI and Digital Chamber, they'll hopefully see the light and just

1199
01:00:41,746 --> 01:00:46,486
be like, this is nonsense and throw it out? I genuinely have no idea, dude. This is such a

1200
01:00:46,486 --> 01:00:52,306
strange area of law. They're using this relatively obscure abandoned property statute in New York

1201
01:00:52,306 --> 01:00:58,566
State that's usually for a lost wallet you find on the street. And I don't know what an intervener

1202
01:00:58,566 --> 01:01:03,946
defendant is. I don't know if this guy John Doe, 33, is going to actually materialize as a defendant

1203
01:01:03,946 --> 01:01:10,766
in the case. I just have no idea. I think it just, if you read their documents, it's not clear that

1204
01:01:10,766 --> 01:01:16,426
the amount of money at stake is $300 billion. And so we're trying to make sure that the judge is

1205
01:01:16,426 --> 01:01:22,206
actually aware of how substantial this claim, since they're using something that's normally for

1206
01:01:22,206 --> 01:01:28,926
like something worth $10, like, are they aware? So the case is currently stayed until that hearing,

1207
01:01:29,006 --> 01:01:34,266
meaning like just paused, right? So- What a mess. People want to steal your Bitcoin. And this is a

1208
01:01:34,266 --> 01:01:39,326
method to, you know, it's not clear. I think the quantum is an interesting point, possibility. I

1209
01:01:39,326 --> 01:01:45,326
think just straight up lawfare, you know, or like imagine if in the quantum mitigation debate, and I

1210
01:01:45,326 --> 01:01:49,546
don't think I'm in favor of anything like this, but question about what to do with Satoshi's coins.

1211
01:01:49,546 --> 01:01:55,346
I remember we were talking about this as long ago as like in Bedford two years ago, like our views and what could be done.

1212
01:01:55,506 --> 01:02:00,226
And like, let's say that the Bitcoin community does decide to sequester them in some way.

1213
01:02:00,326 --> 01:02:04,626
Well, now that they are under control of somebody, a grouper found, I don't know who, right?

1214
01:02:05,606 --> 01:02:10,526
They could, if they have this case, they could send it to the Bitcoin developers and harass them about it, right?

1215
01:02:10,546 --> 01:02:18,846
Like, it's just like, I don't think that dormancy of coins on chain is indicia of lostness.

1216
01:02:18,846 --> 01:02:19,426
Absolutely not.

1217
01:02:19,546 --> 01:02:22,386
Like if you have a gold bar sat in a vault,

1218
01:02:22,386 --> 01:02:24,546
if it's set there for 10 years, it's still yours.

1219
01:02:24,546 --> 01:02:26,026
Yeah, what if I have it under my bed?

1220
01:02:26,026 --> 01:02:27,646
If I have it under my bed, the theory of this case

1221
01:02:27,646 --> 01:02:29,946
says that I have to basically go present it to a bank

1222
01:02:29,982 --> 01:02:33,782
own it. Otherwise, they're claiming it's lost. It's insane. Is there any good precedent that

1223
01:02:33,782 --> 01:02:39,842
could be set from this? Yeah. Well, I think if the judge rules substantially against them,

1224
01:02:39,962 --> 01:02:47,342
especially if it's with help from BPI or Digital Chamber, that's pretty good. I don't know if it...

1225
01:02:47,342 --> 01:02:51,942
I mean, I think it is good. I think if they go and try to... Whoever these people are,

1226
01:02:51,942 --> 01:02:57,082
if they go and try to do it in other jurisdictions, having lost here, I think you'll see those

1227
01:02:57,082 --> 01:03:01,842
people follow them around and try to enter that case and show the precedent of having lost here

1228
01:03:01,842 --> 01:03:07,622
you know you know a low this is a new york state supreme court which i think is basically the lowest

1229
01:03:07,622 --> 01:03:15,822
court um but like is the court in the uk bound by that precedent absolutely not but like they might

1230
01:03:15,822 --> 01:03:21,562
look at it yeah right i remember in pete's case like um you know with craig wright like they looked

1231
01:03:21,562 --> 01:03:26,162
at the they they read and looked about like ira climate and some of the other cases it was relevant

1232
01:03:26,162 --> 01:03:27,002
to the judge.

1233
01:03:27,622 --> 01:03:28,422
So I think, yeah,

1234
01:03:28,482 --> 01:03:29,102
that's the, I mean,

1235
01:03:29,122 --> 01:03:30,622
the best outcome for Bitcoiners,

1236
01:03:30,682 --> 01:03:31,302
I think, is that

1237
01:03:31,302 --> 01:03:32,702
you get a strong ruling against.

1238
01:03:32,982 --> 01:03:34,062
Why are people such dicks?

1239
01:03:34,842 --> 01:03:35,662
Man, people just,

1240
01:03:35,862 --> 01:03:37,242
they scheme and plot.

1241
01:03:37,422 --> 01:03:38,082
They do scheme and plot.

1242
01:03:38,082 --> 01:03:38,362
I don't know.

1243
01:03:38,442 --> 01:03:39,242
We need like, you know,

1244
01:03:39,582 --> 01:03:40,182
yeah, it's true.

1245
01:03:40,262 --> 01:03:40,782
Like, come on,

1246
01:03:40,862 --> 01:03:41,342
go out there

1247
01:03:41,342 --> 01:03:42,222
and do something more productive, guys.

1248
01:03:42,222 --> 01:03:42,942
Yeah, exactly.

1249
01:03:43,262 --> 01:03:44,602
We're in the world of productivity.

1250
01:03:46,122 --> 01:03:46,782
That's a mess.

1251
01:03:47,042 --> 01:03:48,422
Well, and if this comes out

1252
01:03:48,422 --> 01:03:49,122
when I think it is,

1253
01:03:49,222 --> 01:03:50,402
like the last, I think,

1254
01:03:50,442 --> 01:03:51,222
major topic here

1255
01:03:51,222 --> 01:03:52,262
is just the Clarity Act.

1256
01:03:52,302 --> 01:03:53,262
Yeah, I want to know about this

1257
01:03:53,262 --> 01:03:54,782
because, so I've spoken

1258
01:03:54,782 --> 01:03:59,882
to a few people recently who are very, very bearish now on the idea of clarity ever getting

1259
01:03:59,882 --> 01:04:03,702
passed. Is that kind of where you're at? Well, I think publicly-

1260
01:04:03,702 --> 01:04:05,362
Actually, can we start differently? Yeah.

1261
01:04:06,262 --> 01:04:10,862
What do we get as Bitcoiners? Like not anything else. As Bitcoiners, what do we get from clarity?

1262
01:04:11,022 --> 01:04:12,962
What are the things that we'll be missing if we don't get it?

1263
01:04:13,062 --> 01:04:18,602
Well, you're getting, they called it clarity. It's kind of a brilliant name for this reason.

1264
01:04:18,602 --> 01:04:23,322
You're going to get clarity from all the institutional players. We'll all know for

1265
01:04:23,322 --> 01:04:30,442
certain um in statute that can't be rolled back by just like a next chair of whichever agency right

1266
01:04:31,002 --> 01:04:37,962
um so like again spot markets i mean i think they're quite good today in the u.s yeah um but

1267
01:04:37,962 --> 01:04:42,602
there is a fulsome spot market regulatory regime here so like you know there's going to be things

1268
01:04:42,602 --> 01:04:47,402
about like disclosures and audits and like you know not harming your customers so i think much

1269
01:04:47,402 --> 01:04:53,342
less likely, for example, for like a new FTX to occur at a high level. I think it's substantially

1270
01:04:53,342 --> 01:04:58,682
better regulated than today. Whereas mostly today, I mean, New York has the BitLicense and a couple

1271
01:04:58,682 --> 01:05:03,922
other states have some frameworks that are more substantial, but also like, you know, wholesome.

1272
01:05:04,622 --> 01:05:09,142
But most like Bitcoin purchases today are being sold to you from just someone with like a state

1273
01:05:09,142 --> 01:05:12,302
money transmission license. But it's not great. Like the people don't like the BitLicense.

1274
01:05:12,302 --> 01:05:41,162
Well, I mean, I think the bit license might not be the right framework, but it does provide safety. I think one of the big reasons that they don't like it is it's a bit too strict. It is expensive. It takes a long time to get the bit license. And so I hear a lot of criticism from entrepreneurs and it's like, it takes too long to get it. Like, you know, now it's like a creative moat, it's like so expensive. That's one of the things. And also I think they have to approve like every new product. Like I think Cash App, for example, still doesn't offer lightning in New York, even though they have the bit license.

1275
01:05:41,162 --> 01:05:47,542
I don't know why. Obviously, you'd have to ask them. But I think still, though, for example,

1276
01:05:47,682 --> 01:05:54,482
the BitLicense on stablecoins has been, I think, was really good. And it ended up being materially

1277
01:05:54,482 --> 01:06:00,202
similar to what ultimately became the Genius Act. And I will tell you that if what you want

1278
01:06:00,202 --> 01:06:08,362
is greater access by capital to Bitcoin and longer term, more durable access, you need regulation.

1279
01:06:08,362 --> 01:06:11,282
You need something that businesses can feel comfortable.

1280
01:06:11,362 --> 01:06:12,422
The rules won't change.

1281
01:06:12,602 --> 01:06:14,602
So they'll actually build, right?

1282
01:06:14,662 --> 01:06:16,382
I mean, that's the difference here.

1283
01:06:16,482 --> 01:06:18,582
I mean, one thing I like to say is whether or not it happens.

1284
01:06:18,782 --> 01:06:23,582
Like, I think you have the chance for pretty substantial upside if it happens, literally

1285
01:06:23,582 --> 01:06:24,302
in the market.

1286
01:06:25,262 --> 01:06:30,042
But downside should be relatively capped because certainly for Bitcoin, because again, this

1287
01:06:30,042 --> 01:06:35,082
is much more beneficial in, I think, many ways for the coins that Gary Gensler had said

1288
01:06:35,082 --> 01:06:36,122
were securities, right?

1289
01:06:36,122 --> 01:06:38,222
He didn't say that Bitcoin was a security.

1290
01:06:38,362 --> 01:06:40,802
And obviously that's not Bitcoin.

1291
01:06:40,802 --> 01:06:45,002
So, but generally like the crypto industry,

1292
01:06:45,002 --> 01:06:48,602
we are getting a lot of good regulation

1293
01:06:48,602 --> 01:07:03,783
and innovation from the regulators that is likely to persist at least through the end of this presidency So that two and a half years right So like the real I think one of the best arguments for clarity and it has a lot of good stuff in it truly And I tell you another

1294
01:07:03,783 --> 01:07:10,203
thing that's good for Bitcoin is particularly as well. But it helps prevent like rollback. Like,

1295
01:07:10,263 --> 01:07:15,383
you know, if we get an Elizabeth Warren presidency, like you saw how fast like Paul Atkins has been

1296
01:07:15,383 --> 01:07:21,803
able to pivot the SEC. Because interpretive guidance and memos, they have some weight,

1297
01:07:21,983 --> 01:07:26,543
but they can be undone. Federal statute, however, is substantially more durable.

1298
01:07:27,143 --> 01:07:30,563
So that's one of the best reasons for it. Is this Save Our Wallet stuff that

1299
01:07:30,563 --> 01:07:32,903
McCrello is doing still in it? Yes, absolutely. The Blockchain

1300
01:07:32,903 --> 01:07:39,003
Regulatory Certainty Act, it provides broad protections for software developers who don't

1301
01:07:39,003 --> 01:07:41,843
control user funds. I think that's- That's a huge one.

1302
01:07:41,843 --> 01:07:43,443
Yeah, that's a huge one, of course.

1303
01:07:43,543 --> 01:07:47,163
That's many Bitcoiners and many Bitcoin development companies and many, right?

1304
01:07:47,243 --> 01:07:52,203
Like, we're talking about, like, effectively, we're talking about non-custodial apps, like a wallet, right?

1305
01:07:52,283 --> 01:07:55,263
Like, that's, like, it makes sense, right?

1306
01:07:55,343 --> 01:08:03,803
Like, you know, if Osama bin Laden writes his letter on Microsoft Word, they don't show up at Bill Gates' house, right?

1307
01:08:03,943 --> 01:08:04,183
Yeah.

1308
01:08:04,423 --> 01:08:10,583
Like, I'm just saying, like, things that are truly tools and not, like, intermediaries should not be regulated as intermediaries.

1309
01:08:10,583 --> 01:08:13,983
I think that I believe that that's still in it.

1310
01:08:14,203 --> 01:08:16,643
And also there is a protection.

1311
01:08:16,643 --> 01:08:22,583
There is a protection I saw about protecting self-custody, a whole section about it.

1312
01:08:22,763 --> 01:08:28,443
And one of the things I believe it says is that coin dormancy is not sufficient to prove abandoned properties.

1313
01:08:28,583 --> 01:08:29,483
OK, we need it.

1314
01:08:29,683 --> 01:08:30,463
So, yeah, we need it.

1315
01:08:30,603 --> 01:08:32,443
So I think, yeah, BRCA.

1316
01:08:32,703 --> 01:08:34,623
Yeah, I mean, I think it's I think it's good.

1317
01:08:34,703 --> 01:08:35,003
I think.

1318
01:08:35,083 --> 01:08:37,203
But your question at first was about the odds.

1319
01:08:37,383 --> 01:08:37,583
Yeah.

1320
01:08:37,583 --> 01:08:41,983
And I mean, I think here's the issue.

1321
01:08:42,163 --> 01:08:43,103
There are a couple issues.

1322
01:08:43,183 --> 01:08:44,623
Everyone's talking about the ethics issue,

1323
01:08:44,783 --> 01:08:48,543
which is about how to prohibit executive officials

1324
01:08:48,543 --> 01:08:50,443
from doing crypto-type stuff.

1325
01:08:50,563 --> 01:08:53,403
And I think that probably is the blocker,

1326
01:08:53,543 --> 01:08:54,963
if it's a primary blocker.

1327
01:08:55,123 --> 01:08:57,523
The Republicans and Democrats can get on the same page.

1328
01:08:58,143 --> 01:09:01,163
And when this comes out, knock on wood, they might have.

1329
01:09:01,923 --> 01:09:06,023
That's like, we're recording on Thursday, July 22nd.

1330
01:09:06,023 --> 01:09:10,243
Like, they just today released the new combined text of that bill, of the Clarity Act.

1331
01:09:10,523 --> 01:09:13,883
And it, for the first time, has an ethics provision in it.

1332
01:09:13,923 --> 01:09:19,283
And I think it is the first ethics provision ever for a specific asset class.

1333
01:09:20,303 --> 01:09:21,863
It's also pretty good.

1334
01:09:22,823 --> 01:09:24,283
Dems want a little bit more.

1335
01:09:24,663 --> 01:09:30,603
And, like, I'm not saying that's unreasonable in my view, but whether they can get there is not clear.

1336
01:09:31,203 --> 01:09:33,763
I think if they can get there, then the odds are pretty good.

1337
01:09:33,843 --> 01:09:35,423
The problem is the calendar.

1338
01:09:35,423 --> 01:09:38,483
We have no time. We have almost no time.

1339
01:09:38,483 --> 01:09:43,503
So is that because midterms are going to be crucial and then everyone goes away for the summer?

1340
01:09:43,683 --> 01:09:48,923
Yeah. So they all go. The Senate, the House, I think, is scheduled to go away next week.

1341
01:09:49,083 --> 01:09:52,783
Like that's their last week next week. So July 30th or 31st, right?

1342
01:09:53,043 --> 01:09:56,503
The Senate has one more week before they go on recess as well.

1343
01:09:56,643 --> 01:09:59,323
Then they come back and it's like race to the midterms, right?

1344
01:09:59,363 --> 01:10:01,783
And we could be facing a government shutdown, I believe.

1345
01:10:01,943 --> 01:10:05,163
That's a possibility in like September and October.

1346
01:10:05,423 --> 01:10:17,843
And just historically, like, if you look, very few substantial pieces of legislation, let alone possibly controversial ones, ever get passed in the fall of a midterm election year, right?

1347
01:10:17,923 --> 01:10:26,443
And then after the midterms, like, a lot, I don't know how, however many members lose their seats are now in what is a lame duck session, they call it.

1348
01:10:26,803 --> 01:10:31,083
And again, like, do we think they're going to, like, you know, come in to vote for crypto on the way out?

1349
01:10:31,163 --> 01:10:32,443
Like, it's doubtful.

1350
01:10:32,543 --> 01:10:33,903
I mean, it's not impossible.

1351
01:10:34,123 --> 01:10:34,903
It is possible.

1352
01:10:34,903 --> 01:10:36,443
It's just much less likely.

1353
01:10:37,003 --> 01:10:39,263
We and others have been saying this for months.

1354
01:10:39,303 --> 01:10:42,003
So it's not like something that is new.

1355
01:10:42,363 --> 01:10:44,203
Like you just, in Senate floor,

1356
01:10:44,483 --> 01:10:46,303
it takes a long time to vote in the Senate.

1357
01:10:46,483 --> 01:10:49,423
It's not like, the House is like much faster.

1358
01:10:49,863 --> 01:10:51,863
The Senate's like, they got to do one whole vote first

1359
01:10:51,863 --> 01:10:55,183
just to make a motion to consider voting on it.

1360
01:10:55,283 --> 01:10:56,903
That needs 60 plus votes.

1361
01:10:57,343 --> 01:10:58,703
Like then you need another one.

1362
01:10:58,943 --> 01:11:00,823
And so like I wrote in June

1363
01:11:00,823 --> 01:11:03,443
that like we wanted to see text by like July 4th,

1364
01:11:03,443 --> 01:11:06,143
but that was two weeks ago from when we finally got it.

1365
01:11:06,143 --> 01:11:09,823
It's just taking a lot of time and they're about to split.

1366
01:11:09,823 --> 01:11:12,723
And just like that, I think that has been,

1367
01:11:12,723 --> 01:11:28,584
I been lowering it consistently from like 60 75 to 65 to 50 50 like basically on calendar alone And so now we sort of at I will say one one sort of thing here is that like timing urgency

1368
01:11:28,584 --> 01:11:33,944
the lack of time can force compromises, right? So like you could get a rabbit out of a hat.

1369
01:11:34,244 --> 01:11:38,464
People forget the Genius Act failed the first vote, actually literally failed on the floor

1370
01:11:38,464 --> 01:11:41,904
and then succeeded, right?

1371
01:11:41,964 --> 01:11:43,284
So it is possible.

1372
01:11:43,604 --> 01:11:45,304
And that's why I'm not like,

1373
01:11:45,744 --> 01:11:46,964
I'm nowhere close to zero.

1374
01:11:47,864 --> 01:11:48,724
I don't know.

1375
01:11:49,724 --> 01:11:53,124
It feels like a coin flip at best to me right now.

1376
01:11:53,644 --> 01:11:56,324
But your viewers and listeners should,

1377
01:11:56,324 --> 01:11:57,884
I mean, next week,

1378
01:11:58,064 --> 01:11:59,124
like the last week of July

1379
01:11:59,124 --> 01:12:00,584
and the first week of August is like,

1380
01:12:00,744 --> 01:12:02,064
that's literally crunch time.

1381
01:12:02,304 --> 01:12:04,144
So I'd like to see,

1382
01:12:04,444 --> 01:12:06,264
hopefully by the time this comes out,

1383
01:12:06,264 --> 01:12:07,644
Majority Leader Thune,

1384
01:12:08,324 --> 01:12:10,504
there'll have been some compromises

1385
01:12:10,504 --> 01:12:11,544
on whatever's outstanding

1386
01:12:11,544 --> 01:12:13,824
and Majority Leader Thune will have called a vote.

1387
01:12:13,964 --> 01:12:15,944
Like, will have said that a vote will be on a day.

1388
01:12:16,424 --> 01:12:18,524
And after the midterms, though, there's no shot?

1389
01:12:19,444 --> 01:12:21,264
I mean, I don't think so.

1390
01:12:23,204 --> 01:12:24,804
Technically, there is, you know,

1391
01:12:24,884 --> 01:12:26,224
like they could do whatever they want.

1392
01:12:26,384 --> 01:12:28,784
Like, there is, their Senate will go into session.

1393
01:12:29,844 --> 01:12:32,544
Just typically nothing huge gets done then.

1394
01:12:32,544 --> 01:12:33,864
And then, look, I mean,

1395
01:12:33,864 --> 01:12:40,744
then the balance of power in DC changes after the midterm. So like it potentially, yeah, well,

1396
01:12:40,824 --> 01:12:45,264
yeah, right. Potentially. I mean, well, it'll change at least by one every time. Maybe does

1397
01:12:45,264 --> 01:12:49,564
it flip? Like, does the house flip to the Dems? Does the, but is the idea is going to flip there,

1398
01:12:49,564 --> 01:12:54,664
right? Well, I mean, I haven't followed the campaigns at all. Um, but polymarket I think

1399
01:12:54,664 --> 01:12:59,424
says more likely than not, like it's like 55, 45 that Republicans hold the Senate and like

1400
01:12:59,424 --> 01:13:03,384
basically the reverse that they take the house. Oh, so it's still kind of a coin flip. Yeah,

1401
01:13:03,384 --> 01:13:08,884
i know but american politics you know like and that's 10 point delta is like pretty high and i

1402
01:13:08,884 --> 01:13:13,384
think those markets actually have decent volume um so but i haven't looked at polls or anything

1403
01:13:13,384 --> 01:13:19,724
but yes i mean i think it is also quite common for the president's a party to lose in the midterm

1404
01:13:19,724 --> 01:13:26,404
yeah like um just because like you know it's not the presidential like a lot of the the success of

1405
01:13:26,404 --> 01:13:33,024
his party or the president's party in the non-midterm is because the president who won the

1406
01:13:33,024 --> 01:13:38,344
presidency is carrying the ticket right so i mean i i'm not going to predict that but i do think

1407
01:13:38,344 --> 01:13:43,344
it's true that like you know this is a pretty strong shot on goal right president's supportive

1408
01:13:43,344 --> 01:13:49,284
the his agencies are supportive a lot of his cabinet is supportive um and his party is

1409
01:13:49,284 --> 01:13:55,224
supportive and his party controls both houses like unlikely to repeat that level of you know

1410
01:13:55,224 --> 01:14:00,444
serendipity i think so yeah you know we want to see it i think i think it's a great bill i think

1411
01:14:00,444 --> 01:14:05,744
it's a lot of people have worked very hard on the bill i think it has really appropriate and thoughtful

1412
01:14:05,744 --> 01:14:16,164
um tests for when things are decentralized and when they're not um and um responses for when

1413
01:14:16,164 --> 01:14:21,384
they are and are not either if they're not decentralized enough then certain registration

1414
01:14:21,384 --> 01:14:26,764
and disclosure requirements and things like that and if they are too decentralized to plausibly

1415
01:14:26,764 --> 01:14:33,024
comply. Like, I mean, people have spent a long time. Staffers are know all like people writing

1416
01:14:33,024 --> 01:14:38,604
this bill know a lot about it now. It's not like they're new. Like a lot of this has been being

1417
01:14:38,604 --> 01:14:44,584
worked on for like three or four years. Like, do you consider that even a win if this never passes

1418
01:14:44,584 --> 01:14:48,524
that at least people have got up to speed with what's going on? Yeah. And look, look, I got to

1419
01:14:48,524 --> 01:14:54,684
say a lot of Democrats voted for this in the house. So like a lot of Democrats also are supportive.

1420
01:14:54,684 --> 01:14:59,904
So it's not like fait accompli that if the Democrats are in charge, nothing can happen, right?

1421
01:15:01,324 --> 01:15:07,684
So yeah, I mean, look, I think we've done great work in bringing regulators and policymakers

1422
01:15:07,684 --> 01:15:15,784
and administration officials and industry up to speed on this technology, the legal issues,

1423
01:15:16,124 --> 01:15:21,784
the things that are truly important for investor protection, innovation, American capital markets

1424
01:15:21,784 --> 01:15:22,924
growth and dominance.

1425
01:15:22,924 --> 01:15:25,044
I think a lot of good work has been done.

1426
01:15:25,044 --> 01:15:28,884
So as someone who's got no skin in the game in terms of like, I obviously don't live in

1427
01:15:28,884 --> 01:15:31,744
America, but America still drives the world.

1428
01:15:31,744 --> 01:15:33,044
Like people follow what America do.

1429
01:15:33,044 --> 01:15:48,025
Like if if the Democrats do win the next real like next full election do you think we in trouble In in Bitcoin and crypto markets Yeah I I mean it honestly really depends There are some Democrats who love Bitcoin

1430
01:15:48,345 --> 01:15:49,484
Who's the most likely candidate?

1431
01:15:49,705 --> 01:15:50,205
Is it AOC?

1432
01:15:50,725 --> 01:15:51,924
I have no idea, dude.

1433
01:15:52,184 --> 01:15:53,225
Gavin Newsom, maybe?

1434
01:15:53,405 --> 01:15:54,424
I have no idea.

1435
01:15:54,905 --> 01:15:57,484
I think if you, again, I would literally, to answer that question,

1436
01:15:57,585 --> 01:16:00,304
I would literally just look at Polymarket and where they're ranked.

1437
01:16:00,385 --> 01:16:02,065
I think Kamala is somewhere in there as well.

1438
01:16:02,304 --> 01:16:02,585
Surely.

1439
01:16:03,864 --> 01:16:05,104
I have no idea.

1440
01:16:05,104 --> 01:16:08,205
But I will say, I mean, there's some great Democrats that love Bitcoin a lot.

1441
01:16:08,285 --> 01:16:09,565
Ruben Diego, Richie Torres.

1442
01:16:10,484 --> 01:16:12,984
Kirsten Gillibrand has been a long-time supporter.

1443
01:16:13,465 --> 01:16:14,924
She's been awesome on Bitcoin and aliens.

1444
01:16:15,005 --> 01:16:16,184
Angela Alsobrooks.

1445
01:16:16,385 --> 01:16:18,565
Like Mark Warner has been supportive in the past.

1446
01:16:19,705 --> 01:16:22,025
And there's some really good ones, right?

1447
01:16:22,104 --> 01:16:24,165
So Hakeem Jeffries has been supportive.

1448
01:16:24,705 --> 01:16:30,325
And I think it was like 70 Democrats voted for FIT21 in the House, which is Clarity Act.

1449
01:16:30,424 --> 01:16:31,684
And Clarity, and later Clarity.

1450
01:16:31,684 --> 01:16:38,184
Even during the, I mean, FIT21 passed in the Biden administration in the House, of course, not in the Senate.

1451
01:16:38,325 --> 01:16:41,025
So, like, I don't think the game's over.

1452
01:16:41,465 --> 01:16:43,205
And that we're, but it matters.

1453
01:16:43,325 --> 01:16:48,804
You know, if we get, you know, an AOC Warren Gensler presidency, I think that'd be quite bad for us.

1454
01:16:49,265 --> 01:16:56,424
So, but again, we've, it's not just Republicans that like Bitcoin, even in D.C.

1455
01:16:56,984 --> 01:16:59,285
So, you know, you live to fight another day.

1456
01:16:59,285 --> 01:17:04,285
some big, if it doesn't happen, some big legislation takes years and multiple attempts.

1457
01:17:04,825 --> 01:17:10,205
This is one such one. But like, you know, Scott Besson said we're at the one yard line and he's

1458
01:17:10,205 --> 01:17:16,225
right. Like there's, yeah, they're still debating, like I talk about ethics. I think some Democrats

1459
01:17:16,225 --> 01:17:22,744
still want changes to the BRCA a little bit. That's just a couple words though, that we're

1460
01:17:22,744 --> 01:17:28,585
down to. It's like a 310 page law. And like we are, he's right that like the number of issues

1461
01:17:28,585 --> 01:17:29,765
has gotten very small.

1462
01:17:30,285 --> 01:17:32,205
I would just say, to use the World Cup analogy,

1463
01:17:32,304 --> 01:17:33,845
that in addition to being very close,

1464
01:17:34,184 --> 01:17:35,505
we're also running out of time.

1465
01:17:35,565 --> 01:17:37,244
We're in like the last minute of stoppage time

1466
01:17:37,244 --> 01:17:38,104
at this point as well.

1467
01:17:38,184 --> 01:17:40,845
So like it's time for Messi to find the back of that net

1468
01:17:40,845 --> 01:17:43,184
or they're going to end up losing.

1469
01:17:43,345 --> 01:17:44,585
I mean, fuck the Argentinians.

1470
01:17:45,364 --> 01:17:47,224
Well, I'm not, you know, I'm just saying.

1471
01:17:47,844 --> 01:17:48,604
So I don't know.

1472
01:17:48,705 --> 01:17:51,184
It's been a long, long road, I will tell you, though.

1473
01:17:51,184 --> 01:17:53,565
I've been working, you know, helping everyone

1474
01:17:53,565 --> 01:17:55,924
that does anything in like the policy space

1475
01:17:55,924 --> 01:17:57,505
in Bitcoin, in crypto.

1476
01:17:57,505 --> 01:18:05,065
our friends at BPI, everyone's been working on this for a long time. And it's pretty good. It's

1477
01:18:05,065 --> 01:18:09,765
pretty good. It's pretty fair. How frustrating if it never passes. Oh, well. We will live to fight

1478
01:18:09,765 --> 01:18:13,844
another day. Yeah, that's what I think. Alex, this has been awesome. Thank you, Danny. For

1479
01:18:13,844 --> 01:18:18,325
everyone that's in the depths of the bear market, feeling a bit down, parting words.

1480
01:18:19,864 --> 01:18:27,085
Well, Bitcoin is what we'll call it. Is it four and a half times above its prior low? I mean,

1481
01:18:27,085 --> 01:18:34,545
the floor is rising, I would tell you. I would also just say that the impulses that have driven

1482
01:18:34,545 --> 01:18:40,445
people to fall in love with Bitcoin in the world, never-ending debasement of fiat currency,

1483
01:18:40,604 --> 01:18:46,025
I mean, that's not a feature. That's inherent feature of how fiat currency works.

1484
01:18:47,045 --> 01:18:53,684
Government debt, Lynn Alden says this, nothing stops that train. Those things that drew people

1485
01:18:53,684 --> 01:18:55,885
to fall in love with Bitcoin, truly,

1486
01:18:56,085 --> 01:18:59,184
not just buy it in an ETF or whatever.

1487
01:19:00,085 --> 01:19:02,304
They're accelerating and they're not going away.

1488
01:19:02,525 --> 01:19:05,804
And so everything in life is cyclical and ebbs and flows.

1489
01:19:06,345 --> 01:19:09,545
And Bitcoin is just continuing to do its thing.

1490
01:19:09,645 --> 01:19:11,045
I mean, I hate to just use tropes here,

1491
01:19:11,125 --> 01:19:14,005
but they all carry important meaning like TikTok, next block.

1492
01:19:14,104 --> 01:19:14,465
Absolutely.

1493
01:19:14,465 --> 01:19:17,065
You know, even if Thomas can't get the battery working here

1494
01:19:17,065 --> 01:19:22,285
on the block clock, I assure you the blocks are talking.

1495
01:19:22,405 --> 01:19:23,085
They are talking.

1496
01:19:23,684 --> 01:19:27,285
And so, I mean, the thing works, like learn about self-custody.

1497
01:19:27,665 --> 01:19:31,325
And by the way, we are entering an age of abundance.

1498
01:19:31,765 --> 01:19:37,045
I mean, the tools that you can now access with AI, I've built a lot of stuff for Bitcoin,

1499
01:19:37,204 --> 01:19:38,925
for my own analysis of Bitcoin.

1500
01:19:39,825 --> 01:19:44,305
So, you know, while you wait for, you know, the Bitcoin bull run, like practice and get

1501
01:19:44,305 --> 01:19:44,964
good at your coding.

1502
01:19:45,325 --> 01:19:45,964
I love it, man.

1503
01:19:46,204 --> 01:19:46,584
Thank you.

1504
01:19:46,604 --> 01:19:47,065
This has been awesome.

1505
01:19:47,245 --> 01:19:47,645
Thanks, Danny.

1506
01:19:47,765 --> 01:19:48,464
Appreciate you, man.

1507
01:19:48,625 --> 01:19:48,964
Absolutely.

1508
01:19:49,065 --> 01:19:49,565
Let's go.

1509
01:19:53,685 --> 01:20:23,665
Thank you.